Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/25/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
936 AM PDT MON MAY 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure trough will continue to deepen over the
west coast today. This feature will bring onshore flow, below normal
inland temperatures, and a deep marine layer responsible for the
night and morning low clouds. Light rain or drizzle is possible west
of the mountains tonight into Tuesday morning, then again Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. On Wednesday, a weak low pressure
disturbance will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
to the inland valleys and mountains. A trough along the West coast
will remain stagnant over the region through this weekend,
maintaining the low clouds west of the mountains, onshore flow,
and below normal temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
AT 8 AM PDT...Water vapor imagery showed broad troughing draped
along the west coast with the center of low pressure located over
northern California. The 12z KNKX sounding indicated the marine
temperature inversion at 2600 ft msl with dry air aloft. Onshore
surface pressure gradients have nearly doubled in strength as
compared to 24-hours ago with SAN-TPH now +5.7 mb and SAN-DAG +5.4
mb.
As the west coast trough deepens today, scattered low clouds will
persist west of the mountains and breezy westerly winds will develop
in the mountains and deserts. Temperatures along the coast are
forecast around 5 degrees below normal with inland temperatures 10
to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Tonight, the local
WRF model depicts the stratus marine layer deepening to around 4000
ft msl and generates patchy light rain or drizzle west of the
mountains. Synoptically little changes on Tuesday. Breezy westerly
winds will continue across the mountain tops and desert slopes with
inland temperatures on the cool side, 10 to 20 degrees below normal.
Tuesday night into Wednesday, both the 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF drop a
distinct vort max southward towards Southern California. This
feature will once again act to deepen the marine layer Tuesday night
and maintain gusty westerly winds in the mountains and deserts.
Patchy light rain or drizzle will again be a possibility west of the
mountains. As the center of the low moves overhead on Wednesday, 500
mb temps lower to near -20 C. This cold and marginally unstable air
aloft, combined with limited moisture, will generate a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms in the mountains and inland valleys
through the afternoon. Temperatures on Wednesday will be well below
normal, especially inland and over the mountains with a handful of
mountain locations forecast 20-25 degrees below normal.
A rather stagnant weather pattern holds in place through the end of
the weekend and into early next as the west coast trough remains in
place. So Cal residents can expect more night and morning low clouds
west of the mountains, onshore flow, and below normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
231515Z...Coast/Valleys...Areas of bkn low clouds based
mainly 2000-3000 ft MSL with tops to near 3500 ft MSL.
After about 23/19Z becoming mostly scattered. Confidence in
conditions becoming scattered by afternoon today is high. After
about 24/02Z this evening scattered clouds will become more broken
into the night with bases mainly around 2000-3000 feet MSL and tops
around 3500 ft MSL. Risk of bkn low clouds with bases below 2000
feet MSL at times tonight is moderate-high at KSAN.
Mountains/Deserts...Lower coastal slopes below 3500 ft locally
obscured before 23/18Z otherwise mostly clear. West winds with local
gusts of 30-40 mph will produce weak to moderate up/down drafts over
and east of the mountains through tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
815 AM...Wind gusts near 20 knots at times through this evening
over the outer waters. Otherwise, no hazardous marine weather
is expected through Friday.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation will not be needed today.
&&
.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JT
AVIATION/MARINE...Small
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
915 AM PDT MON MAY 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will continue to bring unsettled weather
and cool conditions across NorCal this week.
&&
.Short Term Discussion...
Forecast largely on track this morning. Latest hi-res guidance
continues to indicate showers popping up over next several hours
with coverage expanding into the afternoon. Showers will generally
remain over higher elevations but cannot rule out a shower or two
in the Valley. Modest instability will be present as shortwave
moves across the area, so isolated thunderstorms are possible as
well. Accumulations will generally be light although locally
heavier amounts possible in any thunderstorm. Afternoon
temperatures will top out in the low to mid 70s in the Valley with
40s-60s across higher elevations. CEO
.Previous Discussion...
Clear to partly cloudy skies across interior NorCal early this
morning. Temperatures are pretty similar to readings from 24 hours
ago and generally range from the 30s and 40s in the mountains to
the upper 40s and 50s elsewhere.
Long-wave trough will remain in place over the West through the
period maintaining cool and unsettled weather for the region. Weak
circulation evident on satellite imagery to the west of the Bay
Area (37N/129W) is forecast to move toward central California
today and may provide the trigger for another upswing in shower
and thunderstorm activity by this afternoon. Most of the action is
expected over the foothills and mountains, but the HRRR is
indicating that some showers may develop in the Sacramento region
(NE quad of the approaching low) around the afternoon commute
time.
Tuesday is expected to be quite similar to today as the weak low
continues to hang out over central California. With cloud cover
and a rather cool airmass remaining across the region,
temperatures will remain below average.
Less coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected across
NorCal on Wednesday and Thursday as the low shifts south and east
of the area. Temperatures will gradually warm each day as the
airmass modifies and most areas see more sunshine.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)
The long term forecast period should begin dry for interior
northern California as a shortwave ridge of high pressure begins
to break down. High temperatures are looking to return to near
normal into the lower to mid 80s the valley and the 50s and 60s
for the higher elevations. Another upper level system is depicted
in model forecasts to slide across the Pacific NW Friday night
into Saturday, and a portion of the jet stream could clip northern
California. As a result, there will be the possibility of some
showers and isolated thunderstorms for northern portions of the
Sierra and southern Cascades for next weekend. Any snow
accumulations should remain confined to the upper elevations,
which should not affect mountain pass travel.
Model forecasts are in decent agreement as to the amplitude and
general timing pattern of the upper level low for next weekend,
however the progression differs slightly as to when the system will
clear northern California. Although there are slight differences in
the forecast scenarios, the beginning of next week should dry out as
a ridge builds back into the west from the eastern Pacific.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for the terminals for the next 24
hours with light wind shifts. An upper level trough continues to
linger over northern California, which will result in BKN to OVC
ceilings for most flight times during the forecast period for the
TAF sites.
Showers and thunderstorms today should stay confined
to higher elevations, although portions of the northern valley
near KRDD and KRBL could also see some shower or thunderstorm activity.
Confidence is low as to showers developing within the vicinity of
the terminals, so left mention out of the TAF for now.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
345 AM PDT MON MAY 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure over the western states
will strengthen a little through Wednesday...then weaken again for
next weekend. High temperatures will remain below average for
inland areas through much of the week...then warm towards the end
of the week into next weekend. A deep marine layer will bring
areas of night and morning low clouds and patchy fog for coastal
areas inland to the coastal mountain slopes. There are small
chances for light precipitation along and west of the mountains
for late tonight into Tuesday morning and again late Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning with a slight chance of thunderstorms near
the mountains Wednesday afternoon. There will continue to be
periods of gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts...stronger
during the late afternoon and evening each day.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
Broad low pressure extends across the western states. Within that
broader low pressure...a shortwave off the California coast will
move inland through Southern California tonight and Tuesday. This
will bring deepening of the marine layer with a slight chance of
light showers along and west of the coastal slopes of the
mountains for late tonight into Tuesday morning. A second
shortwave moving southward just off the West Coast will move
inland through Southern California Tuesday night and Wednesday as
a closed low pressure system. This will bring a slight chance of
light showers along and west of the coastal slopes of the
mountains late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. With the
coldest mid level air moving across Southern California
Wednesday...there is a slight chance of thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon...mainly near the mountains and inland valleys. Inland
high temperatures will cool slightly through Wednesday with gusty
west winds in the mountains and deserts...strongest during the
late afternoon and evening each day.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Sunday)...
The trough of low pressure will weaken for Thursday and Friday. A
low pressure system moving into the Pacific Northwest on Saturday
will maintain the low pressure trough into Southern California
through the Memorial Day weekend. Areas of night and morning
coastal low clouds and patchy fog will continue with slow warming
of inland high temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION... 230900Z...Coast/Valleys...Mostly scattered, but
occasionally broken low clouds will continue through 18z. Cigs would
be around 2500 feet msl with tops to 3200 feet. After 02z scattered
clouds will become more broken overnight with bases around 2500 feet
msl.
Mountains/Deserts...West winds with local gusts of 30-40 mph will
produce weak to moderate up/down drafts over and east of the
mountains through tonight. Otherwise, mostly clear.
&&
.MARINE...
200 AM...Wind gusts near 20 knots at times this evening over the
outer waters. Otherwise, no hazardous marine weather is expected
through Friday.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
330 AM PDT MON MAY 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS
An upper level disturbance will continue to bring unsettled weather
and cool conditions across NorCal this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM
Clear to partly cloudy skies across interior NorCal early this
morning. Temperatures are pretty similar to readings from 24 hours
ago and generally range from the 30s and 40s in the mountains to
the upper 40s and 50s elsewhere.
Long-wave trough will remain in place over the West through the
period maintaining cool and unsettled weather for the region. Weak
circulation evident on satellite imagery to the west of the Bay
Area (37N/129W) is forecast to move toward central California
today and may provide the trigger for another upswing in shower
and thunderstorm activity by this afternoon. Most of the action is
expected over the foothills and mountains, but the HRRR is
indicating that some showers may develop in the Sacramento region
(NE quad of the approaching low) around the afternoon commute
time.
Tuesday is expected to be quite similar to today as the weak low
continues to hang out over central California. With cloud cover
and a rather cool airmass remaining across the region,
temperatures will remain below average.
Less coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected across
NorCal on Wednesday and Thursday as the low shifts south and east
of the area. Temperatures will gradually warm each day as the
airmass modifies and most areas see more sunshine.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)
The long term forecast period should begin dry for interior
northern California as a shortwave ridge of high pressure begins
to break down. High temperatures are looking to return to near
normal into the lower to mid 80s the valley and the 50s and 60s
for the higher elevations. Another upper level system is depicted
in model forecasts to slide across the Pacific NW Friday night
into Saturday, and a portion of the jet stream could clip
northern California. As a result, there will be the possibility of
some showers and isolated thunderstorms for northern portions of
the Sierra and southern Cascades for next weekend. Any snow
accumulations should remain confined to the upper elevations,
which should not affect mountain pass travel.
Model forecasts are in decent agreement as to the amplitude and
general timing pattern of the upper level low for next weekend,
however the progression differs slightly as to when the system will
clear northern California. Although there are slight differences in
the forecast scenarios, the beginning of next week should dry out as
a ridge builds back into the west from the eastern Pacific.
&&
.AVIATION
VFR conditions are expected for the terminals for the next 24
hours with light wind shifts. An upper level trough continues to
linger over northern California, which will result in BKN to OVC
ceilings for most flight times during the forecast period for the
TAF sites.
Showers and thunderstorms today should stay confined
to higher elevations, although portions of the northern valley
near KRDD and KRBL could also see some shower or thunderstorm activity.
Confidence is low as to showers developing within the vicinity of
the terminals, so left mention out of the TAF for now.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
959 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure departs to the northeast as high pressure builds to
the south on Wednesday. A cold front moves through on Thursday.
High pressure will then dominate through Saturday night as a
series of weak upper level disturbances move across. A cold front
will move through on Sunday. High pressure will build in its wake
across New England Sunday afternoon and night, then pass offshore
Monday, allowing a broad area of low pressure to begin approaching
from the south later Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The forecast is generally on track. persistent showers continue to
track down from new england...so have added chc pops for a few
more hours as a weakening trend is noted on radar as well as in
the hrrr. dry weather should return by midnight with decreasing
clouds overnight. have also added patchy fog to ct coastal areas
and ern long island overnight with light winds and high moisture
content at the sfc. Otherwise...minor adjustments made to hourly
t/td.
The region will be behind a weak surface trough. The upper level
low and associated cold pool aloft shift east of the region. This
will increase subsidence with ridging aloft. The lows were a blend
of 1/3 MET, 1/3 MAV and 1/3 12z GMOS. With lighter winds across
the interior, min temperatures were further lowered by a degree.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For Wednesday, the surface trough will be just east of the
region. This will allow for westerly flow to continue.
Aloft...ridging continues with high pressure establishing itself
southwest of the region. A very warm day is expected with highs
around 15 degrees above normal on average...cooler at the
immediate eastern shorelines with partial sea breeze influences.
Overall though less marine influence with the more westerly flow.
For Wednesday Night, aloft there will be continued ridging. At the
surface, the pressure gradient will become weak with high pressure
becoming weaker and translating farther south into the open
Atlantic. A parent low moves into the Canadian Maritimes but will
be filling in with increasing central pressure...essentially
weakening. The associated cold front moves through by early
Thursday but will be weakening as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summerlike warmth will continue through the first half of the
weekend as longwave upper ridging moves across. Shortwave
disturbances will however be able to move through the longwave ridge
and bring chances for late day convection mainly from NYC north/west
both Friday and Saturday. GFS seems too quick to do so on Thursday
as well, and think any convection that day will be isolated in nature
and confined to well NW of NYC.
High temperatures both Thu/Fri will be well into the 80s in most
places, and some isolated lower 90s are not out of the question somewhere
in urban NE NJ, in the valleys of Orange County, or the interior lower
CT river valley. Lows will range mostly from the mid 50s to the
mid 60s.
The ridge then weakens across New England in response to a sharp
northern stream disturbance moving across eastern Canada, pushing
a back door cold front through on Sunday as a surface high builds
across New England. Forecast details become less certain from
Sunday onward, and will be dependent on how far south the front
sinks. Forecast temperatures could be at least several degrees
cooler and chances for rain lower if the front does push farther
south. Leaning more toward the ECMWF idea of more of a glancing
blow from this cooler air mass for now.
As we go into Monday night and Tuesday, we should start dealing
with influx of Atlantic moisture well north of a subtropical or
tropical weather system now just beginning to organize near and
northeast of the Bahamas, and forecast by global models to head
toward the Southeast coast.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure departs to the northeast as high pressure builds to the
south overnight and Wednesday.
Mid and high clouds give way to clear skies overnight and through
the day Wednesday. However, lingering stratus will take a little
longer to scour out for eastern terminals such as KGON. In addition,
patchy fog will likely develop after midnight for a few outlying
terminals. MVFR or IFR vsbys are possible.
After 12z, any fog lifts.
Winds will be light overnight. West winds 5 to 10 kts in the morning
Wednesday will increase to 9 to 13 kts in the afternoon. A few gusts
are possible in the 15 to 20 kt range.
Winds may back around to the s/sw at KJFK, and CT terminals in the
afternoon with seabreeze influence.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Thursday through Sunday...
.Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Mainly VFR but sub-VFR
possible in showers/evening thunderstorms.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR in showers possible NW of NYC.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday Night, allowing for forecast winds and seas to stay
below SCA criteria.
The only hazard across the forecast waters, mainly the western
forecast waters, will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into early this evening with potential for gusty winds,
heavy rain and small hail. Otherwise no hazardous conditions are
expected.
Minimal SCA conditions mainly in the form of higher ocean seas
may be possible Sunday afternoon and night as easterly flow
increases following a back door cold frontal passage.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
light pcpn amounts (less than 1/10 inch) in any remaining showers this
eve.
Local minor flood impacts from heavier showers/tstms are possible
both late day Friday and Saturday, possibly still well inland well
N/W of NYC on Sunday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
812 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 800 PM EDT...Weak deformation axis association with
scattered to broken band of showers just east of the Hudson River
should continue into the evening hours. The upper low in the
vicinity of Providence, RI is beginning to show signs of tracking
ENE per the latest H2O loop analysis. With this movement we should
see a diminishing trend in the showers which too is suggested by
the HRRR. So main update was to the sky coverage, PoPs/WX, removed
the mention of thunder and expanded the fog a little further west
to include the Hudson River Valley overnight as skies should clear
overnight under diminishing winds. Question will be just how much
fog impact will occur as dewpoints upstream were between 30-40F
compared to mid 50s across eastern NY. We will monitor closely.
Prev disc...Upper low departing northeast slowly but steadily.
Very narrow band of rain in eastern NY with some isolated
thunderstorms from the Berkshires through NW CT and the mid Hudson
Valley. Rain and isolated thunderstorms will build east and
dissipate through the evening...and clearing will take place
through the night.
Quite a bit of clearing outside of the moisture field of the upper
low...so by daybreak most areas should be clear to mostly clear.
There could be some patchy fog as low level winds should trend to
calm and areas with wet ground could support some patchy fog but
with dryer surface dewpoints advecting in...it could minimize
chances for fog. Only including patchy fog for areas east of the
Hudson Valley into western New England where most of the rain has
fallen. Lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Good consensus in guidance for sunny to mostly sunny sky over most
of our region Wednesday...but weak upper energy scraping far
northern areas...along with a tightening of the boundary layer
temperature gradient could support some isolated to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms. Winds from the surface through the
boundary layer are expected to be west...and could be a bit gusty
in the afternoon. The mixing should help temperatures reach the
lower to mid 80s in many areas...a few upper 80s mid Hudson Valley
and upper 70s to lower 80s northern areas.
Some mixed signals in guidance as to coverage of clouds and
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and
Friday. Wherever the weak boundary stalls Wednesday night...will
return north Thursday...and could be a diffuse focus for some
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms in northern areas.
Increasing low level moisture and instability could support
diurnal type isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms in other areas of terrain Thursday afternoon and
evening and again Friday afternoon and evening.
There could be some old convective debris that could filter the
sun at times Thursday and Friday...too. Upper level ridging and
low level ridging build east...allowing for deep southwest
flow...warming boundary layer temperatures and increasing low
level humidity. Highs Thursday in the mid to upper 80s with
around 80 to lower 80s in higher terrain. Highs Friday in the mid
to upper 80s...but around 90 southern areas and lower 80s northern
areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast features above normal temperatures for the
holiday weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.
A very active weather pattern across the eastern seaboard as we
monitor the tropics, frontal boundary nearby along with increasing
temperatures and humidity /along with the heat index/. We are well
into the warm sector Friday night as H850 temps surge well into the
mid-teens which should continue into the weekend. However, several
instability factors also climb, although, shear parameters are less
than ideal.
Through Saturday, ridge axis at the surface and especially aloft
builds across the region. As dewpoints climb well into the 60s and
PWATS climbing toward 1.50 inches, it will definitely feel more like
summer. Surface based CAPES too climb toward 2000 J/KG /even higher
with slight modifications of the soundings/ with surface lifted
index values to at or below -5c. So plenty of instability around
but aforementioned shear parameters are generally 15kts or less. For
now, we will leave the chance-scattered PoPs in the grids. Later
into the holiday weekend will be the position of the backdoor front
as the GFS is the most aggressive with taking this front well west
of the region with the ECMWF/GGEM remaining somewhat stationary
across eastern NY. If the later scenario were to verify, the
potential for not only additional convection but heavy rainfall
would be another concern. For now, we will leave in the chance-
scattered PoPs along with partly cloudy-mostly cloudy conditions.
For Memorial Day, confidence is rather low as we monitor the
potential tropical entity along the east coast. Please refer to the
latest tropical outlooks issued by the National Hurricane Center.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers continue to impact the Hudson River Valley and points east
which is mainly where our TAFs are located. Included a VCSH or a
TEMPO group for the next few hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions
through the evening hours.
The question for tonight will be how much BR/FG form. All
terminals will clear out overnight. Winds will be light but
dewpoints upstream are about 10-15 degrees cooler than those
observed across eastern NY and western NE. At this time, the best
IFR chances for FG are at KPSF/KGFL where showers and trapped
moisture near the inversion. Have also included IFR conditions at
KGFL in BR. At KALB and KPOU...MVFR in BR forecast.
After BR/FG clears /by 12Z-13Z/ VFR conditions will prevail all
terminals for Wednesday.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
RH values at night tonight and tomorrow night should be in the 70
to 100 percent range. Minimum RH values Wednesday afternoon are
expected to be 30 to 40 percent in southern areas and 40 to 55
percent in northern areas. Minimum RH values on Thursday afternoon
should be 40 to 55 percent.
The surface wind will be light and variable tonight...generally
5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at 10 to 15 mph...with a
few gusts near 20 mph possible in the afternoon. Winds trend to
near calm Wednesday night and then become south at 15 mph or less
Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.
Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms through this evening. At this time additional
rainfall amounts of up to a tenth of an inch in most areas...with
some isolated quarter inch amounts in any thunderstorms in the mid
Hudson Valley...Berkshires and NW CT. We do not expect this
rainfall to produce much if any rises on rivers streams and
reservoirs.
There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
www.weather.gov/albany
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
737 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks northeast through tonight,
moving into the Gulf of Maine. An associated weak surface trough
will move east of the region tonight. High pressure builds in
from the southwest briefly for late tonight and Wednesday. This
weakens and moves farther offshore Wednesday Night as a weakening
cold front moves through by early Thursday. High pressure will
dominate through Saturday night as a series of weak upper level
disturbances move across. A back door cold front will move through
on Sunday. High pressure will build in its wake across New England
Sunday afternoon and night, then pass offshore Monday, allowing a
broad area of low pressure to begin approaching from the south
later Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The forecast is generally on track. Made some adjustments to pops
next couple of hours based on latest radar trends. Showers
continue to weaken this eve and dry weather should return by
midnight. Otherwise...minor adjustments made to hourly t/td and
winds.
The region will be behind a weak surface trough. The upper level
low and associated cold pool aloft shift east of the region. This
will increase subsidence with ridging aloft. The lows were a blend
of 1/3 MET, 1/3 MAV and 1/3 12z GMOS. 850mb temperatures increase
through the night. A light westerly flow is conveyed by the models
which will help mix down some relatively warmer air tonight
despite the decrease in clouds, thereby mitigating radiational
cooling. With lighter winds across the interior, min temperatures
were further lowered by a degree. Also with lighter winds across
the interior and residual low level moisture...there could be some
patchy fog late into early Wednesday Morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For Wednesday, the surface trough will be just east of the
region. This will allow for westerly flow to continue.
Aloft...ridging continues with high pressure establishing itself
southwest of the region. A very warm day is expected with highs
around 15 degrees above normal on average...cooler at the
immediate eastern shorelines with partial sea breeze influences.
Overall though less marine influence with the more westerly flow.
For Wednesday Night, aloft there will be continued ridging. At the
surface, the pressure gradient will become weak with high pressure
becoming weaker and translating farther south into the open
Atlantic. A parent low moves into the Canadian Maritimes but will
be filling in with increasing central pressure...essentially
weakening. The associated cold front moves through by early
Thursday but will be weakening as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summerlike warmth will continue through the first half of the
weekend as longwave upper ridging moves across. Shortwave
disturbances will however be able to move through the longwave ridge
and bring chances for late day convection mainly from NYC north/west
both Friday and Saturday. GFS seems too quick to do so on Thursday
as well, and think any convection that day will be isolated in nature
and confined to well NW of NYC.
High temperatures both Thu/Fri will be well into the 80s in most
places, and some isolated lower 90s are not out of the question somewhere
in urban NE NJ, in the valleys of Orange County, or the interior lower
CT river valley. Lows will range mostly from the mid 50s to the
mid 60s.
The ridge then weakens across New England in response to a sharp
northern stream disturbance moving across eastern Canada, pushing
a back door cold front through on Sunday as a surface high builds
across New England. Forecast details become less certain from
Sunday onward, and will be dependent on how far south the front
sinks. Forecast temperatures could be at least several degrees
cooler and chances for rain lower if the front does push farther
south. Leaning more toward the ECMWF idea of more of a glancing
blow from this cooler air mass for now.
As we go into Monday night and Tuesday, we should start dealing
with influx of Atlantic moisture well north of a subtropical or
tropical weather system now just beginning to organize near and
northeast of the Bahamas, and forecast by global models to head
toward the Southeast coast.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure departs to the northeast as high pressure builds to the
south tonight and Wednesday.
Mid and high clouds give way to clear skies overnight and through
the day Wednesday. However, lingering stratus will take a little
longer to scour out for eastern terminals such as KGON. In addition,
patchy fog will likely develop after midnight for a few outlying
terminals. MVFR or IFR vsbys are possible.
After 12z, any fog lifts.
Winds will be light tonight. West winds 5 to 10 kts in the morning
Wednesday will increase to 9 to 13 kts in the afternoon. A few gusts
are possible in the 15 to 20 kt range.
Winds may back around to the s/sw at KJFK, and CT terminals in the
afternoon with seabreeze influence.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. A late
day seabreeze is expected Wednesday.
KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. West
winds will increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. West
winds will increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. West
winds will increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KHPN TAF Comments: Patchy fog is possible overnight. West winds will
increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. A late
day seabreeze may approach the airport Wednesday, but do not
expect the seabreeze to move through at this time.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Thursday through Sunday...
.Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Mainly VFR but sub-VFR
possible in showers/evening thunderstorms.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR in showers possible NW of NYC.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday Night, allowing for forecast winds and seas to stay
below SCA criteria.
The only hazard across the forecast waters, mainly the western
forecast waters, will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into early this evening with potential for gusty winds,
heavy rain and small hail. Otherwise no hazardous conditions are
expected.
Minimal SCA conditions mainly in the form of higher ocean seas
may be possible Sunday afternoon and night as easterly flow
increases following a back door cold frontal passage.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of less than 1/4 inch are expected into early
this evening. Locally higher amounts will be possible in
thunderstorms.
Local minor flood impacts from heavier showers/tstms are possible
both late day Friday and Saturday, possibly still well inland well
N/W of NYC on Sunday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
703 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will continue across portions of Southern RI
and southeast MA early this evening as low pressure slowly moves
across southeastern New England. An upper level high pressure
ridge will then bring very warm to hot weather to most of the
region Wednesday through Saturday, except for cooler temperatures
at times on the immediate coast. A few showers and thunderstorms
are possible Thursday night into Friday, but a better chance
exists Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of a backdoor cold
front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
700 PM Update...
Overall forecast is on track. Removed the thunder mention for this
evening as convection has remained just west of southern New
England. Also increased precip trends across RI and southeast MA
as area of showers continues to develop and spin as the upper
level low begins to slowly shift eastward. Otherwise breaks of sun
across western MA as allowed for temps to warm in to the upper 60s
late this afternoon. Onshore flow across eastern MA will continue
until the low shifts eastward creating more of a northerly flow.
Fog and drizzle will remain over the next several hours.
May need to watch for radiational fog development tonight across
the low lying areas as lingering low level moisture combined with
cooling temperatures will create a low temp/dewpoint spread. Dense
fog is not expected at this time.
Previous Discussion...
An area of showers may develop over Southern-Southeastern RI into
Southeast MA as plume of deeper moisture pivots northeast off the
ocean into that area. This is supported by multi model K indices
and latest trends seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Already
seeing the first signs of this with light showers developing over
Marthas Vineyard and Elizabeth Islands. However these showers
should be weak/low top with not a lot of impact. Thus not a
washout expected this evening.
Otherwise drying trend second half of the night as vertically
stacked low moves offshore by sunrise.
Temps seasonably cool tonight with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
*** Summer-like Temperatures Arrive Wednesday ***
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ...
Vertically stacked low just east of Cape Cod at 12z/8am but ejects
seaward quickly with rising heights and northwest flow aloft by
midday. Thus any cloudiness across Eastern MA at sunrise quickly
erodes and/or moves offshore with abundant sunshine for the
afternoon. Warming temps aloft to +14c at 850 mb and +21c at 925 mb
yields surface temps at least 30C/86F. Although with boundary layer
mixing beyond 850 mb highs will make a run at 90 in many locations.
However humidity will be low with dew pts only in the mid to upper
40s. Not as warm along the South Coast including Cape Cod and the
Islands...where winds will bend to the southwest off the cooler
ocean waters.
Wed night ...
Dry, tranquil weather with mid level ridge and associated
anticyclonic flow continuing to build across the region from the
west. Dry airmass in place along with diminishing winds and mostly
clear skies will allow temps to fall into the 50s...except 60-65 in
the urban areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* Well above average temperatures for Thu and Fri with the potential
for a spot thunderstorm
* Hazy, Hot and Humid for Saturday with locations reaching 90+F
* Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
* Back door cold front on Sunday will keep conditions cool into
Monday
OVERVIEW...
Large scale pattern is in agreement with both determinisic and
ensemble guidance. Upper level trough will move eastward towards the
Maritimes as Midwest ridge builds into the Northeast. Anomalous
high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to build this
ridge through Saturday. Anticipate summer-like warmth and humidity
to return to the region as ensembles show both the 700 and 500
heights nearly 1-2 standard deviations above normal. Several waves
will move through the flow keeping a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for Late Thursday and again on
Saturday. Because of the mesoscale differences in the guidance
trended the forecast towards an overall blend. Back door cold front
will swing through by Sunday cooling the area down. However, on
Monday, still some discrepancies with offshore high pressure. The
GFS keeps it closer to the coast keeping temps on Monday cooler
while the EC is weaker and more offshore. Continued with a model
blend for now.
DAILIES...
Thursday into Friday...High Confidence.
Upper level ridge will build into the region on each day. Anticipate
the warm weather to continue into Thursday as 925 mb temps are
generally around 20C. This warm airmass combined with westerly flow
and the warm May sun will help aid in high temps reaching into the
mid to upper 80s with a few 90s near the CT valley. Conditions look
to be cooler along the MA coastline as a sea breeze will develop
from weak winds aloft. A spot shower or thunderstorm may develop in
the afternoon, but most of the region will remain dry.
Weak shortwave will pass through the flow Thursday night. Due to
building heights across the region and weak southwesterly flow,
appears that the better forcing will be north of southern New
England. However, cannot rule out the potential for precip Thursday
night into Friday morning across the north and northwest portion of
the region. Guidance continues to highlight the potential for
elevated convection so continued the mention for thunder in the
forecast for now.
Temperatures on Friday look to be similar as they will be on
Thursday with heights in the mid to upper 80s with a few 90F across
the CT valley. Still a large spread in the guidance on if Boston
will reach 80F as there is question in the sea breeze development.
However 925 mb winds appear to be strong enough to allow for good SW
flow to warm the immediate eastern coastline. This southwest flow
will keep the south coast cooler thanks to onshore flow and the
cooler ocean waters.
Once again a spot shower looks to be possible in the afternoon, but
better forcing and instability appears to remain west of the region.
So another dry weather day is expected.
Saturday...Moderate Confidence
Upper level ridge will strengthen across the the eastern Great Lakes
as warm front lifts northward. A very warm day will be on tap as 925
mb temps will warm to 23-24C. Ensembles continue to show
probabilities that many locations could reach above 90F. This hazy,
hot and humid day does have some caveats. Approaching surface trough
looks to trigger afternoon convection for the region. Some storms
could be strong or severe, but a bit to early to tell.
Sunday into Monday...Moderate Confidence.
Back door cold front will swing through the region late Saturday
night into Sunday. This will cool temperatures down across the
region. The front does look to push and stall across the Hudson.
However, could still see upper 70s or low 80s across the CT river
valley as 925 mb temps are between 18-20C. Otherwise anticipate a
cooler weather day.
Still large spread for surface temps on Monday. GFS and EC have
about a 15 degree difference amongst each other. The GFS is cooler
with highs in the low 70s while the EC is warmer with highs in the
low 80s. Continued with a model blend for now to split the
difference. May see a few sct showers on Monday depending on the
location of the southeast low pressure system and how quickly it
moves northwards towards the region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight ... Moderate confidence with uncertainty centered around
except timing of improving conditions overnight.
Isolated lighter showers east of the Worcester Hills tonight.
Mainly MVFR all terminals except Coastal MA which will see periods
of IFR. VFR across the CT valley. Cigs and vsby improve from west
to east after 06z.
Wed ... high confidence.
Any leftover MVFR cigs at sunrise will be across Eastern MA but
quickly lifting to VFR by 15z or sooner. Dry weather and west
winds except southwest along the coast.
Wed night ... high confidence.
VFR/DRY and light sw winds becoming west.
KBOS TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 06z.
KBDL TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 03z-06z.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday...High confidence. VFR.
Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.
Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Low confidence. MVFR conditions to start with some
improvements on Sunday as a back door front swings through.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
4 pm update ...
Tonight ... high confidence except uncertainty on areal coverage of
showers and exact timing.
Vertically stacked low over the RI waters will slowly drift to Cape
Cod by morning. Few light rain showers will accompany this low along
with patchy fog. Leftover southeast swell of 3-6 ft continue across
the Southeast MA ocean waters.
Wed ... high confidence on all weather parameters.
Low pressure near Cape Cod at sunrise moves east/offshore by midday
with a drying trend and vsby improving to the horizon. Winds become
southwest by midday.
Wed night ... high confidence.
Light southwest winds become westerly. Dry weather and vsby
continue.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period. Could see some brief near shore
southwest wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots are possible Friday and
Saturday...which will result in some choppy seas. Otherwise could
see some afternoon convection on Saturday as a back door cold
front swings through.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ... High temperatures soaring well into the 80s to near
90 in most locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values
dropping to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly
wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are anticipated. Given this morning`s
rainfall and marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the
need for fire weather headlines especially given many locations
are near full green-up.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ003-
004-006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Dunten
NEAR TERM...Nocera/Dunten
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...Nocera/Dunten
MARINE...Nocera/Dunten
FIRE WEATHER...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
411 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms over
Western portions of MA and CT will continue into early this
evening. Scattered showers may also develop across portions of
Southern RI and southeast MA early this evening as low pressure
slowly moves across southeastern New England. An upper level high
pressure ridge will then bring very warm to hot weather to most of
the region Wednesday through Saturday, except for cooler
temperatures at times on the immediate coast. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday, but a
better chance exists Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of a
backdoor cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
400 PM Update ...
Vertically stacked low over the region with -19c air at 500 mb. This
cold air aloft combined with cyclonic flow is resulting in
scattered showers and embedded thunder. The convection is focused
on the western side of the low where SPC mesoanalysis indicates some
baroclinicity at 850 mb and 925 mb along with some breaks of
sunshine yielding 250-500 j/kg of SB cape per mesoanalysis. This
will continue to be the theme thru sunset with convection focused
across this region.
A second area of showers may develop over Southern-Southeastern RI
into Southeast MA as plume of deeper moisture pivots northeast off
the ocean into that area. This is supported by multi model K indices
and latest trends seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Already
seeing the first signs of this with light showers developing over
Marthas Vineyard and Elizabeth Islands. However these showers should
be weak/low top with not a lot of impact. Thus not a washout
expected this evening.
Otherwise drying trend second half of the night as vertically
stacked low moves offshore by sunrise.
Temps seasonably cool tonight with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
*** Summer-like Temperatures Arrive Wednesday ***
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ...
Vertically stacked low just east of Cape Cod at 12z/8am but ejects
seaward quickly with rising heights and northwest flow aloft by
midday. Thus any cloudiness across Eastern MA at sunrise quickly
erodes and/or moves offshore with abundant sunshine for the
afternoon. Warming temps aloft to +14c at 850 mb and +21c at 925 mb
yields surface temps at least 30C/86F. Although with boundary layer
mixing beyond 850 mb highs will make a run at 90 in many locations.
However humidity will be low with dew pts only in the mid to upper
40s. Not as warm along the South Coast including Cape Cod and the
Islands...where winds will bend to the southwest off the cooler
ocean waters.
Wed night ...
Dry, tranquil weather with mid level ridge and associated
anticyclonic flow continuing to build across the region from the
west. Dry airmass in place along with diminishing winds and mostly
clear skies will allow temps to fall into the 50s...except 60-65 in
the urban areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...
* Very warm Wed/Thu/Fri with highs well up into the 80s except
cooler immediate coast at times
* Hot Saturday afternoon w/highs mainly upper 80s to the lower 90s
* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri but best chance Sat
afternoon/evening ahead of cold front
* Turning much cooler Sun and especially Mon along the coast
Details...
Wednesday night...Other than a low risk for a spot shower/t-storm
across the interior during the evening dry weather is expected
behind a weak cold front. Low temps will only fall back into the 50s
in most locations with 60 to 65 in some of the urban centers. A
touch of patchy fog may develop in the typically prone locations
toward daybreak.
Thursday...Upper level ridging across the Southeast U.S. continues
to nose into southern New England. This will result in plenty of
sunshine and with warm mid level temps, highs again should reach
well into the 80s in most locations. However, gradient will be
weaker allowing for sea breezes to develop on the immediate Eastern
MA coast including Boston by early afternoon. High temps will still
likely reach well up into the 70s to near 80 in this region before
sea breezes develop and temps fall a bit. Should remain dry given
lack of forcing and upper level ridging nosing into this region.
Thursday night and Friday...A shortwave will lift northeast into
northern New England Thu night/Fri. While the best forcing will to
our north, a few showers/t-storms are possible with the best chance
across western and northern MA. Certainly not expecting a washout
though and the majority of the Thu night/Fri will be dry.
Still looks like a warm afternoon with temps into the 80s, but it
may be cooler across Northeast MA depending on location of backdoor
cold front.
Saturday...A hot day with westerly flow and 850T near 16c. This
should yield highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations.
Dewpoints into the 60s will make it feel somewhat muggy.
Pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front may trigger
scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly Saturday afternoon and
evening.
Sunday and Monday...High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will
build south into New England. So despite rather high height fields,
northeast low level flow will result in much cooler temps Sun and
especially Mon particularly along the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Some improvement in vsbys observed over past 1 to 2 hours but
cigs slow to rise in onshore flow across much of the area. Believe
will begin to rise into the VFR range across the CT River Valley
by mid afternoon. Rest of the area should see very slow
improvement into at least low MVFR cig range, although there could
be a few holdouts below one thousand feet in SE coastal areas.
Scattered showers and even isolated thunderstorm or two could
develop late this afternoon/evening over portions of RI and SE MA.
There could also be scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms that
develop during the late afternoon near the Berkshire Crest.
Tonight ... Moderate confidence with uncertainty centered around
except timing of improving conditions overnight.
Showers with isolated thunder focused across Western portions of
MA and CT. Isolated lighter showers elsewhere. Mainly MVFR all
terminals except Coastal MA. Showers dissipate with sunset and
cigs and vsby improve after 06z.
Wed ... high confidence.
Any leftover MVFR cigs at sunrise will be across Eastern MA but
quickly lifting to VFR by 15z or sooner. Dry weather and west
winds except southwest along the coast.
Wed night ... high confidence.
VFR/DRY and light sw winds becoming west.
KBOS TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 06z.
KBDL TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 03z-06z. Showers
should stay west of BDL airspace but will be close and need to
watch early this evening.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday...High confidence. VFR conditions other than a few hours
of patchy ground fog possible toward daybreak Thu in the typically
prone locations.
Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.
Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
4 pm update ...
Tonight ... high confidence except uncertainty on areal coverage of
showers and exact timing.
Vertically stacked low over the RI waters will slowly drift to Cape
Cod by morning. Few light rain showers will accompany this low along
with patchy fog. Leftover southeast swell of 3-6 ft continue across
the Southeast MA ocean waters.
Wed ... high confidence on all weather parameters.
Low pressure near Cape Cod at sunrise moves east/offshore by midday
with a drying trend and vsby improving to the horizon. Winds become
southwest by midday.
Wed night ... high confidence.
Light southwest winds become westerly. Dry weather and vsby
continue.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period with the exception being Wednesday
night. Some brief near shore southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25
knots are likely Wed afternoon...which will result in some choppy
seas. In addition, long southwest fetch may bring a period of 5
foot seas across our southern waters Wednesday night which may
require headlines.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ... High temperatures soaring well into the 80s to near
90 in most locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values
dropping to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly
wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are anticipated. Given this morning`s
rainfall and marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the
need for fire weather headlines especially given many locations
are near full green-up.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ003-
004-006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera
NEAR TERM...Nocera
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/Nocera
MARINE...Frank/Nocera
FIRE WEATHER...Nocera
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
248 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks northeast through tonight,
moving into the Gulf of Maine. An associated weak surface trough
will move east of the region tonight. High pressure builds in
from the southwest briefly for late tonight and Wednesday. This
weakens and moves farther offshore Wednesday Night as a weakening
cold front moves through by early Thursday. This lifts north as a
warm front later in the day Thursday. High pressure remains
situated over the western Atlantic through the first half of the
weekend. A backdoor cold front moves through on late Saturday
night into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Higher vorticity advection associated with residual cold pool
aloft with lingering upper level low combined with increased
daytime heating has led to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Some gusty winds and small hail as well as heavy rain are possible
for brief periods of time with these thunderstorms. Most of the
convection has been confined to Southwest Connecticut and Western
Long Island Sound. With CAPE values forecast of a few hundred J/KG
more showers and thunderstorms will be possible with coverage
being scattered. This will decrease with loss of diurnal heating
and as cold pool aloft shift farther east this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight, the region will be behind a weak surface trough. The
upper level low and associated cold pool aloft shift east of the
region. This will increase subsidence with ridging aloft. The
lows were a blend of 1/3 MET, 1/3 MAV and 1/3 12z GMOS. 850mb
temperatures increase through the night. A light westerly flow is
conveyed by the models which will help mix down some relatively
warmer air tonight despite the decrease in clouds, thereby
mitigating radiational cooling. With lighter winds across the
interior, min temperatures were further lowered by a degree.
For Wednesday, the surface trough will be just east of the region.
This will allow for westerly flow to continue. Aloft...ridging
continues with high pressure establishing itself southwest of the
region. A very warm day is expected with highs around 15 degrees
above normal on average...cooler at the immediate eastern
shorelines with partial sea breeze influences. Overall though less
marine influence with the more westerly flow.
For Wednesday Night, aloft there will be continued ridging. At the
surface, the pressure gradient will become weak with high pressure
becoming weaker and translating farther south into the open
Atlantic. A parent low moves into the Canadian Maritimes but will
be filling in with increasing central pressure...essentially
weakening. The associated cold front moves through by early
Thursday but will be weakening as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak area of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will push a
cold front through the area Wednesday night. This front will then
head quickly back north as a warm front, moving through Thursday
afternoon.
Thereafter, there will be a prolonged period of southerly flow as
surface high pressure settles over the Western Atlantic. At the same
time, ridging aloft will mean rising heights and therefore, warming
temperatures, mainly for areas away from the coast. Closer to the
coast, flow off the cooler ocean waters will keep these areas a few
degrees cooler than inland. With a southerly flow, dewpoints will
also be on the rise. By the weekend, dewpoints could be in the lower
60s, making it slightly uncomfortable for some.
The 00Z ECMWF and the 00Z GFS are in better agreement on the passage
of a back door cold front late Saturday night into Sunday (quicker
than previously forecast). Thereafter, the 2 models differ. The GFS
continues to nose a strong high pressure from southeastern Canada
into the area, while the ECMWF keeps this high off the Atlantic
coast, and is weaker. Though the 00Z ECMWF does nose the high
pressure farther inland than the previous run. The GFS solution
would keep the area dry for the beginning of next week, while the
ECMWF would keep it unsettled. Due to the uncertainty, a blend of
models seems reasonable.
The cold frontal passages Wednesday night looks to come through dry
with limited moisture to work with. There may be some showers and
thunderstorms with the warm frontal passage on Thursday, mainly
inland as the lower temperatures over the coastal areas stabilizes
those areas. A thermal trough sets up over inland areas for Friday
and Saturday, which will mean diurnal showers and thunderstorms for
these areas. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible with
the backdoor cold front passage late Sunday into Sunday night. This
will not be a continuous rainfall event from Friday through Sunday
night.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will pass through the terminals
through this evening. Will carry VCSH/VCTS in the 18Z TAFs through
this evening, but confidence on timing and coverage is low.
Generally a VFR forecast. Conds may briefly lower to MVFR in
SHRA/TSRA. In addition, MVFR VSBY possible in areas of BR late
tonight, mainly away from KNYC terminals.
Winds generally ranging from N to NW at 5-10 KT. Winds become
LGT/VRB this evening and tonight.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KISP TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Wednesday through Sunday...
.Wednesday through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Occasional MVFR in
showers/thunderstorms possible.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday Night, allowing for forecast winds and seas to stay
below SCA criteria.
The only hazard across the forecast waters, mainly the western
forecast waters, will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into early this evening with potential for gusty winds,
heavy rain and small hail. Otherwise no hazardous conditions are
expected.
Winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria for the long term
with light a pressure gradient.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of less than 1/4 inch are expected for the rest
into early this evening. Locally higher amounts will be possible
in thunderstorms.
No concerns for hydrology Wednesday through Monday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
150 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks northeast today and tonight,
moving along the New England coast. High pressure builds in
briefly for late tonight and Wednesday. A cold front moves
through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and lifts north
as a warm front later in the day Thursday. High pressure remains
situated over the western Atlantic through the first half of the
weekend. A backdoor cold front moves through on late Saturday
night into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The forecast is pretty much on track here. There were some slight
adjustments to better match observed trends with regards to
temperatures, dewpoints, and pops for showers. Otherwise though, no
remarkable changes were made to the forecast database.
A weakening low south of Cape Cod tracks slowly northeast through
today. A weak surface trough extends back from the low into the
lower Hudson Valley. Meanwhile an upper closed, and nearly cutoff
low, east southeast of the Delmarva, as seen on the water vapor
loop, drifts north to northeast and begins to fill and get picked
up by the northern stream.
With areas of energy rotating around the low and the surface low,
showers will continue through this morning, eventually becoming
more scattered this afternoon. Instability is very weak this
morning and generally less than 50 J/KG but this will increase
this afternoon to a few hundred J/KG with increased daytime
heating at the surface. Forecast includes isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight the upper low continues to fill and becomes an open wave
after 06Z and the northern stream carries the low into Maine and
Nova Scotia, merging with low pressure over eastern Canada. The
surface low becomes nearly indistinguishable by late tonight, also
merging with a surface low over eastern Canada. By 00Z
precipitation is quickly ending as heights rise from as weak upper
ridging builds to the west. This ridge builds through Wednesday
with dry weather late this evening through Wednesday.
Warmer air continues to move into the region tonight through
Wednesday at the lower and mid levels. A dramatic warmup is
expected across the entire region as a westerly flow allows even
coastal areas to warm to well above seasonal normals.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak area of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will push a
cold front through the area Wednesday night. This front will then
head quickly back north as a warm front, moving through Thursday
afternoon.
Thereafter, there will be a prolonged period of southerly flow as
surface high pressure settles over the Western Atlantic. At the same
time, ridging aloft will mean rising heights and therefore, warming
temperatures, mainly for areas away from the coast. Closer to the
coast, flow off the cooler ocean waters will keep these areas a few
degrees cooler than inland. With a southerly flow, dewpoints will
also be on the rise. By the weekend, dewpoints could be in the lower
60s, making it slightly uncomfortable for some.
The 00Z ECMWF and the 00Z GFS are in better agreement on the passage
of a back door cold front late Saturday night into Sunday (quicker
than previously forecast). Thereafter, the 2 models differ. The GFS
continues to nose a strong high pressure from southeastern Canada
into the area, while the ECMWF keeps this high off the Atlantic
coast, and is weaker. Though the 00Z ECMWF does nose the high
pressure farther inland than the previous run. The GFS solution
would keep the area dry for the beginning of next week, while the
ECMWF would keep it unsettled. Due to the uncertainty, a blend of
models seems reasonable.
The cold frontal passages Wednesday night looks to come through dry
with limited moisture to work with. There may be some showers and
thunderstorms with the warm frontal passage on Thursday, mainly
inland as the lower temperatures over the coastal areas stabilizes
those areas. A thermal trough sets up over inland areas for Friday
and Saturday, which will mean diurnal showers and thunderstorms for
these areas. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible with
the backdoor cold front passage late Sunday into Sunday night. This
will not be a continuous rainfall event from Friday through Sunday
night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will pass through the terminals
through this evening. Will carry VCSH/VCTS in the 18Z TAFs through
this evening, but confidence on timing and coverage is low.
Generally a VFR forecast. Conds may briefly lower to MVFR in
SHRA/TSRA. In addition, MVFR VSBY possible in areas of BR late
tonight, mainly away from KNYC terminals.
Winds generally ranging from N to NW at 5-10 KT. Winds become
LGT/VRB this evening and tonight.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KISP TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Wednesday through Sunday...
.Wednesday through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Occasional MVFR in
showers/thunderstorms possible.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday as a weakening low south of Cape Cod tracks to the
northeast through tonight and high pressure builds in late tonight
and Wednesday.
The only hazard across the forecast waters will be isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening. Otherwise
no hazardous conditions are expected.
Winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria for the long term
with light a pressure gradient.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of less than 1/4 inch are expected for the rest
of today into this evening. Locally higher amounts will be
possible in isolated thunderstorms.
No concerns for hydrology Wednesday through Monday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...JM/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
147 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over southeast Long Island will bring scattered to
numerous showers across our region from the Capital District south
and east today with perhaps a rumble of afternoon thunder. Clouds
will keep temperatures a little less warm than yesterday. This
storm will move to our east tonight and high pressure will briefly
build in through early Wednesday. A weak front will bring some
showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the Capital region
Wednesday afternoon. After that, a large Bermuda high will take
hold of our weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 134 PM EDT...A closed off upper level low is located just
southeast of the region off the coast of southern New England to
the east of Long Island. Moisture wrapping around this feature
continues to allow for some showers. The bulk of these have been
occurring over southern Vermont and into adjacent Washington and
Rensselaer Counties New York. Some parts of southern Vermont have
seen locally around an inch of rainfall according to the latest
MRMS precip estimation.
Temps continue to vary from northwest to southeast across the area
this afternoon. Thanks to partly to mostly sunny skies, some
parts of the central/western Adirondacks have already reached into
the mid 70s, while southern and eastern areas seeing lots of
clouds remain only in the low 60s. Temps look to be fairly steady
for the afternoon hours, with the warmest readings in northwest
parts of the area. Most places from Albany on south/east won`t see
much sun for the remainder of the day.
The latest 16z 3km HRRR suggests that the threat for showers will
remain in the forecast for this afternoon, mainly for areas east
of the Hudson River. There might be enough instability with colder
temperatures aloft for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon,
although most areas won`t see any thunder. Will continue with just
a slight chance of thunder for much of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cutoff low is forecast to drift east of Cape Cod tonight taking
all the showers with it. Weak high pressure will build tonight
into early Wednesday with a return to sunshine and higher
temperatures back to 80-85 in the valleys, mid to upper 70s over
the higher elevations.
By afternoon, a weak back door front looks to slip southward into
the Adirondacks touching off some scattered showers and possibly
thunderstorms. One or two cells could make it south into the Capital
region and even northern Catskills.
A west to southwest wind 5-15 mph will become northwesterly during
the afternoon.
The front looks to washout by Wednesday night over the region as it
slides to our south. Wednesday night looks dry with perhaps a
little patchy fog as the wind will become light or calm overnight.
Thursday will start out dry, but with increasing moisture, and
perhaps a weak short wave, some scattered showers or thunderstorms
could develop by afternoon across the region. These will be hit and
miss with many areas likely not getting any rain at all.
Otherwise, temperatures will climb in the mid or upper 80s in the
valleys, 75-80 higher terrain. Dewpoints will reach the lower 60s in
the Hudson valley south of Albany, mid or upper 50s further north so
it will feel a little uncomfortably warm to some.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended forecast features above normal temperatures for the
holiday weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.
Friday-Friday night...the warm front finally moves through eastern
NY and western New England during this time frame. A warm and humid
air mass settles in...as dewpoints rise into the 60s. The boundary
will likely be in the vicinity of the forecast area...and a weak
short-wave in the west to southwest flow aloft will likely focus
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The latest GFS20
has modest SBCAPEs in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, but the amount of
deep shear remains uncertain. It is hard to ascertain if the
convection will be severe this far out. H850 temps rise to +14C to
+16C with highs in the lower to mid 80s in the valley
locations...and mid 70s to around 80F over the mountains. The
showers and thunderstorms should diminish quickly with the boundary
retreating northward and the daytime heating gone. Lows will be
upper 50s to lower 60s over most of the forecast area.
Saturday-Saturday Night...The subtropical high builds in from the
western Atlantic. The ALY forecast get into a warm sector. H850
temps nudge up to +15C to +17C on the latest ECMWF. PWATs increase
to 1-1.5 inches. The GFS model soundings do not look very capped.
Pop-up diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible
capable of heavy rainfall. The big question is the timing of the
backdoor cold front from Northern New England and southeast Canada.
The guidance varies on the timing and placement of the boundary. Our
forecast reflects a timing more Saturday night into Sunday. Highs
will be steamy for late May with humidity levels on the increase.
Highs will be mainly in the mid and upper 80s for elevations at 1000
ft or lower...and upper 70s to lower 80s over the mountains. A
slight to low chc of showers and thunderstorms will likely linger
most of the night as the backdoor cold front dips south/southwest
across the region.
Sunday into Memorial Day...Temps look a bit cooler...closer to
normal for late May on Sunday...as the backdoor cold front stalls
over central NY...eastern PA and northern NJ. The ECMWF has H850
temps fall back to +10C to +12C from east to west over the forecast
area...as the cold front moves through...and high pressure builds in
from New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. There will continue to be solid
chances of showers and thunderstorms as the cold front looks to move
through. The amount of instability available will be the main issue
for any strong to severe thunderstorms as the shear increases. This
will continue to be monitored over the next several days. Highs on
Sunday fall back into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Lows Sunday night
fall back into the 50s to lower 60s. Memorial Day will feature a
threat of a shower or thunderstorm...but it is uncertain where the
frontal boundary goes. The latest WPC guidance has it move north
into southern Quebec and Northern New England again. When a boundary
is in the area with light to moderate amounts of instability and
appreciable moisture...then a slight to low chc of showers and
thunderstorms...especially in the afternoon will persist through the
holiday weekend. Overall...it does not look like a washout at this
point. After lows Sunday night in the 50s...highs will likely be in
the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Still some spokes of precipitation rotating around the low
pressure system to our east. Have VCSH at all terminals for the
afternoon. Not out of the question that a terminal could drop to
MVFR conditions in a shower...or perhaps IFR...but chances are
slight. Slight chances for TSRA this afternoon as well...but not
sufficient to warrant mention in TAFs. So will maintain VFR at
all terminals this afternoon.
Question for tonight will be how much BR/FG form. All terminals
will clear out tonight. Winds will be light. Best chances for FG
are at KPSF where showers deposited around 0.2 inch of rain today.
Have also included IFR conditions at KGFL in BR. At KALB and
KPOU...MVFR in BR forecast.
After BR/FG clears /by 12Z-13Z/ VFR conditions will prevail all
terminals for Wednesday through 18z.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH levels should remain elevated today dropping not low than about
50 percent most places. There will be scattered to numerous showers
mainly from the Capital region south and eastward. Most areas will
likely not receive a quarter inch, except perhaps Litchfield county
into the Mid Hudson valley and southern Catskills.
The showers will move out tonight leaving us with a nearly fully
recovery and likely the formation of dew as the wind will be light.
Wednesday, will start out dry and sunny. A weak disturbance could
trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the
Capital region but a few could stray further south.
A full recovery tonight as the showers move out followed by warm
increasingly humid weather for the balance of the week.
Low pressure tracking close to southern New England will
scattered to numerous showers from the Capital region and perhaps
an afternoon thunderstorm to locations from the Capital Region
south and east. Weak high pressure will build east off the mid
Atlantic states and summer like weather will spread across our
region from the southwest through the end of next week.
The surface wind will be light out of the north or northeast through
Tuesday, generally 5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at 10 to
15 mph...with a few gusts near 20 mph possible in the afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.
Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms today. At this time amounts up to a tenth of an inch
in our northwestern zones, to quarter to half an inch in our
southeastern zones is anticipated. We do not expect this rainfall to
produce much if any rises on rivers streams and reservoirs.
There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...Frugis/HWJIV/OKeefe
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016
We just made another quick update to remove one more row of
counties from the severe thunderstorm watch...including Burleigh
County. Thus, Bismarck is no longer in the watch.
UPDATE Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016
Quick update to cancel the western parts of severe thunderstorm
watch 192. The effective cold front, which has been partly re-
inforced by storm outflow, has moved east of a Minot to Fort
Yates line as of 0330 UTC. The severe threat has ended west of
the front. We are maintaining the watch east of there for now
given modest instability and moderate to strong deep-layer shear,
but radar trends suggest the severe threat is marginal.
UPDATE Issued at 859 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016
MODERATE INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO RESULT IN A
CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STORMS HAVE HAD TROUBLE BECOMING VERY
STRONG...THOUGH HAVE HAD REPORTS OF PROLIFIC SMALLER HAIL
PRODUCING STORMS ALONG WITH HEAVIER RAIN PRODUCERS OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGION WHERE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE
NOTED. SOME POST FRONTAL STORMS ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WHICH MAY
BE SPAWNED BY AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING THROUGH THE
REGION. WILL KEEP CURRENT SEVERE WATCH IN TACT.
UPDATE Issued at 605 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016
Thunderstorms are starting to develop over western into south
central North Dakota. Stage is still set with increased
instability and sufficient deep layer shear to support severe
storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts as the main
threats. Plenty of moisture continues to surge in ahead of
gradually progressing cold front (dewpoints in the lower 60s) to
bring the risk of heavy rainfall from some storms. The area with
the greatest risk for this continues to be over south central
North Dakota into the James River Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016
Severe thunderstorms highlight the short term period
The latest water vapor imagery shows a closed low circulating
over Alberta with a 100kt jet streak stretched out from northeast
Montana into central Wyoming. This jet streak nudges east into
western North Dakota this evening. This will provide large scale
ascent along a cold frontal boundary, now located from Portal to
Stanley, and south into Hettinger. Dewpoints in the west are in
the lower 40s while in central North Dakota moisture is higher
with dewpoints near 60F. The cold front will slowly move east
tonight, exiting the James River Valley between 09z-12z Monday.
Visible imagery showing stratus eroding which will initiate and
increase low level buoyancy and instability. The HRRR and NAM look
to have a good trend with convection initiation. The most intense
cells begin near Lemmon SD and develop within a corridor between
Dickinson and Bismarck, and narrowing but continuously developing
towards Minot from 4pm-7pm cdt. This consolidates into a line of
thunderstorms that slides into the James River Valley this
evening. Another area of severe and/or heavy rain develops in
south central ND between 7pm and midnight. This is forecast to
move northeast and expand into the James River Valley with heavy
rainfall late evening into the overnight period. Large hail,
damaging winds, and heavy rainfall continue as the main threats
late this afternoon through tonight. Flash flooding possible in
the southern James River Valley late this evening into the
overnight period. More stable air shifts from west to east tonight
ending the precipitation after midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016
Broad trough over the western CONUS gradually works eastward towards
the plains through the middle and end of the upcoming week. This
will bring active cyclonic flow to the area, though models are
having quite a bit of trouble with timing out individual short waves
within the system. With that said, will keep chances for
precipitation going given the active pattern. Near to slightly above
average temperatures expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016
Thunderstorms will gradually end from west to east tonight, but
are forecast to linger longest over the James River Valley. Local
IFR ceilings and visibilities with heavy rain and gusty winds are
expected with some storms. VFR conditions are expected on Monday
behind the cold front crossing the area tonight.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS/CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1247 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to persist across Osage County
this afternoon as a 35kt low level jet continues to funnel into
that area. The MCV continue across northeast Oklahoma with the
majority of the convection associated with this feature fading.
Have adjusted the pops and temperatures for this afternoon with
the cloud cover expected to keep temperatures a few degree lower.
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1205 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016
.AVIATION...23/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
Tricky aviation forecast over the next several hours. Broken to
overcast MVFR ceilings will continue to impact airfields and TAF
sites across portions of central and southern Oklahoma through the
mid to late afternoon. Across western Oklahoma and western north
Texas, scattered to broken MVFR ceilings will continue to improve
to VFR through the afternoon. The biggest concern for aviation
will be thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening
across portions of western Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Confidence in timing and coverage has increased for TAF sites
across the southwest, including KCSM/KHBR/KLAW/KSPS. Therefore,
utilized TEMPO groups, after 00Z for most. Expect a complex of
storms to develop similar to last night, primarily impacting
southern Oklahoma and northern Texas overnight.
Kurtz
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 928 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/
UPDATE...
Quick morning update to thunderstorm chances through this
evening.
DISCUSSION...
Jumping on the forecast early this morning given the chance for
severe storms developing on/just east of the Caprock and moving
into far western north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma late this
Afternoon and evening. Guidance, both traditional and mesoscale,
are in decent agreement with the redevelopment of the dryline on
the Llano Estacado and its mixing eastward through the mid
afternoon across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Dew points
across the Panhandles to central Oklahoma continue to reside in
the low to mid 60s, with sites farther south in western north
Texas already reaching the upper 60s to near 70s. the MCS that
moved across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas overnight has
had some impact, but recovery is already well underway farther
west. The fly in the ointment at the moment is the broken to
overcast stratus spread across the area. In western Oklahoma,
breaks have been fairly evident, and temperatures are already in
the upper 60s and lower 70s. Agree with the night shift and with
latest SPC outlook, some form of a triple point will develop
south/southwest of the Red River, east of the Caprock this
afternoon. Solutions from the HRRRx and TTU WRF continue to pick
this as the primary initiation point. The operational HRRR and
traditional guidance continue to fire convection along a surging
point in the dryline early this afternoon in northwestern
Oklahoma/southwestern Kansas. This is likely overdone given the
current conditions, overcast skies, limiting heating this morning.
However, isolated thunderstorms may develop in the region, but
probably not as widespread as some of the solutions attempt.
Therefore, increased precip chances to likelys across southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas from late this afternoon through
the evening and into the overnight hours. Confidence is high for
storm development and and increase from chance PoPs was necessary.
Not to rehash the previous discussion, but instability and shear
will be plenty enough for the development of large damaging hail,
damaging winds, and the possibility of a few tornadoes.
Of greater concern for many will be the potential for flooding
overnight, especially across portions of southern Oklahoma and
northern Texas where excessive rainfall fell last night and this
morning. Once again, this afternoon`s storms are expected to merge
into a complex and propagate eastward overnight, slowly. A flood
watch is in effect for this region and may need to be extended,
but this will be addressed with the afternoon forecast.
Kurtz
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 850 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/
UPDATE...
Updated pops and slowed diurnal warming trend this morning.
DISCUSSION...
Showers/storms continue to move east with a new area of storms
that developed just east of OKC/Norman. Have updated short-term
pops with the latest trends in radar and satellite. HRRR/RAP and
various hi-res models show redevelopment before 18z across
northwest and central Oklahoma so have adjusted late morning pops
to account for this possibility. And made significant changes to
the hourly temperatures and dewpoints given the cloud cover will
keep temperatures cooler this morning and the post-convective
worked over airmass keeping dewpoints lower. Still expect we will
see eventual recovery to forecast highs, but it will likely take
some time.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 659 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
A few thunderstorms remain near SPS and OKC/OUN early this
morning, and may continue for a couple more hours. Otherwise,
expect MVFR cigs to return late this morning for a few terminals
before becoming VFR by this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected again tonight, mainly after 00Z. Confidence in timing
is not exceptional, however, so expect some amendments/changes to
future TAFS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/
DISCUSSION...
An MCS continues its track across southern OK and north TX early
this morning. Very heavy rainfall and damaging winds accompanied
it earlier, and are still expected across southern OK through the
early morning hours. Most of this activity should move out of our
area near or before sunrise. Later this afternoon storms will
initiate along the dryline again from the southeastern TX
panhandle into western and northwestern OK, and move east during
the evening hours. Supercells will be likely, with ALL severe
weather threats possible. The highest rainfall totals are again
expected over western and southwestern OK, and western north TX.
These areas already received a significant amount of rainfall this
morning so we have decided to issue a Flood Watch thru early Wed
AM.
The overall forecast has changed very little for the work week.
The severe threat will continue to shift slowly east each day
with the dryline and approaching upper trough. The tornado threat
should also increase during the late afternoon and early evening
hours with the onset of the LLJ, especially across western and
southwestern OK by Tue. There may be a break in COVERAGE Wednesday with
surface convergence becoming a bit more diffuse along the
dryline. However, if any isolated supercells can manage to develop
they will again be capable of producing ALL severe weather
threats.
By Thursday, a southern stream mid to upper level shortwave trough
is expected to lift over northeast TX and into SE OK around mid
day. Heavy rainfall and embedded supercells will be possible with
this activity. Further west, the upper trough will begin to near
the southern plains with rapid height falls and increasing mid to
upper flow expected over the dryline across western OK.
Widespread severe weather continues to appear possible thru
Thursday night, including the threat of tornadoes. Finally, by
Friday, the upper trough will being to lift northeastward but will
not pass overhead until late Friday night. Additional severe
weather will remain possible from along/just west of I35 through
eastern OK.
Additional storm chances are expected through the weekend and into
early next week as another upper trough moves over the western
CONUS and WSW flow aloft ahead of it continues over the Southern
Plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 67 83 68 86 / 50 20 50 20
Hobart OK 68 87 69 90 / 60 50 40 20
Wichita Falls TX 69 87 71 90 / 70 30 30 20
Gage OK 67 91 64 93 / 40 20 30 10
Ponca City OK 68 83 69 88 / 40 30 50 20
Durant OK 70 83 70 84 / 50 30 40 20
&&
.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
morning for OKZ021>023-027-033>039-044-045.
TX...Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
morning for TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
09/04/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
928 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016
.DISCUSSION...
The Overnight MCS across southern OKlahoma and northern Texas
has left an MCV over northeast Oklahoma this morning. This feature
will continue to have convection associated with it for the next
several hours as it moves off to the northeast with adequate elevated
instability in place. The convection may become a little more concentrated
around the MCV with the activity further south diminishing. Have made
some adjustment to the pops for Today to take this into account.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing convection now entering eastern OK will continue to spread
eastward through the morning. The most likely aviation impact will
be across SE OK nearer the stronger storms. Thinking is that once
this convection dissipates then any redevelopment will be most
likely west of the area with storms possibly spreading into the
area early Tuesday morning.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/
DISCUSSION...
The synoptic features from yesterday remain largely in play and
nearly in the same locations early this morning. The one
exception is that the ridge of high pressure has shifted east
southeast some...becoming more positively tilted as the longwave
trof settled over the Desert Southwest United States. Also this
morning...the dryline off the surface low over Eastern Colorado
continued to extend southward into far Eastern New Mexico.
Scattered convection that had developed yesterday along the
dryline had formed into a MCS across Southern Oklahoma...
approaching Southeast Oklahoma over the next couple of hours.
Across the rest of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...
cloudy conditions with east to southeasterly winds were common.
The MCS will continue to push eastward into/across Southeast
Oklahoma this morning and potentially spreading into Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon. An instability
axis remained just west of the CWA this morning...which could help
to weaken the overall intensity of the MCS...however gusty to
locally damaging winds could be possible with this activity.
Also...additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the CWA through this evening as any leftover outflow
boundaries from the morning activity remain over the region.
Breezy southerly winds transporting moisture back into the region
combined with near seasonal average temperatures underneath a
destabilizing atmosphere could allow for any thunderstorm activity
through this evening to become strong to severe with large hail
and locally damaging winds being the main threats. The greater
severe potential though should remain west of the CWA...closer to
the dryline.
Also this afternoon...additional convection is expected to fire
along/near the dryline again...which will have the potential to
cluster together into another MCS and move into the CWA overnight
tonight. The instability axis overnight tonight looks to be a
little more eastward than where it is this morning. This will aid
in a continued severe potential overnight tonight over the
CWA...with locally damaging winds being possible.
Tuesday through Thursday...the longwave trof is forecast to stall
over the Southwest United States with west to southwesterly upper
level flow over the Plains. Weak impulses within this flow moving
across the Plains along with the dryline remaining over Western
Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles will give a "rinse-wash-
repeat" for thunderstorm chances each day over the CWA. Any
convection along the dryline could form into an MCS at night and
approach/move into the region...with additional daytime
thunderstorm chances as the weak impulses interact with any
leftover outflow boundaries. These conditions along with a
continued unstable atmosphere will allow at least limited severe
potentials through Thursday over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas.
Latest model solutions continue to show the wave over the
Southwest United States finally lifting into the Plains
Friday...thus increasing thunderstorm chances again for the CWA.
Indications are that the wave could possibly move into the region
during the morning hours which could help to limit severe
potential...though with this several days away...will continue to
monitor latest data as this set up could likely change back-and-
forth several times. For the upcoming weekend...thunderstorm
chances will continue to be possible as another wave looks to
quickly develop and lift out of the Southwest United States into
the Plains.
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
928 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016
.UPDATE...
Quick morning update to thunderstorm chances through this
evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Jumping on the forecast early this morning given the chance for
severe storms developing on/just east of the Caprock and moving
into far western north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma late this
Afternoon and evening. Guidance, both traditional and mesoscale,
are in decent agreement with the redevelopment of the dryline on
the Llano Estacado and its mixing eastward through the mid
afternoon across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Dew points
across the Panhandles to central Oklahoma continue to reside in
the low to mid 60s, with sites farther south in western north
Texas already reaching the upper 60s to near 70s. the MCS that
moved across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas overnight has
had some impact, but recovery is already well underway farther
west. The fly in the ointment at the moment is the broken to
overcast stratus spread across the area. In western Oklahoma,
breaks have been farily evident, and temperatures are already in
the upper 60s and lower 70s. Agree with the night shift and with
latest SPC outlook, some form of a triple point will develop
south/southeast of the Red River, east of the Caprock this
afternoon. Solutions from the HRRRx and TTU WRF continue to pick
this as the primary initiation point. The operational HRRR and
traditional guidance continue to fire convection along a surging
point in the dryline early this afternoon in northwestern
Oklahoma/southwestern Kansas. This is likely overdone given the
current conditions, overcast skies, limiting heating this morning.
However, isolated thunderstorms may develop in the region, but
probably not as widespread as some of the solutions attempt.
Therefore, increased precip chances to likelys across southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas from late this afternoon through
the evening and into the overnight hours. Confidence is high for
storm development and and increase from chance PoPs was necessary.
Not to rehash the previous discussion, but instability and shear
will be plenty enough for the development of large damaging hail,
damaging winds, and the possiblity of a few tornadoes.
Of greater concern for many will be the potential for flooding
overnight, espcecially across portions of southern Oklahoma and
northern Texas where excessive rainfall fell last night and this
morning. Once again, this afternoon`s storms are expected to merge
into a complex and propogate eastward overnight, slowly. A flood
watch is in effect for this region and may need to be extended, but
this will be addressed with the afternoon forecast.
Kurtz
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 850 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/
UPDATE...
Updated pops and slowed diurnal warming trend this morning.
DISCUSSION...
Showers/storms continue to move east with a new area of storms
that developed just east of OKC/Norman. Have updated short-term
pops with the latest trends in radar and satellite. HRRR/RAP and
various hi-res models show redevelopment before 18z across
northwest and central Oklahoma so have adjusted late morning pops
to account for this possibility. And made significant changes to
the hourly temperatures and dewpoints given the cloud cover will
keep temperatures cooler this morning and the post-convective
worked over airmass keeping dewpoints lower. Still expect we will
see eventual recovery to forecast highs, but it will likely take
some time.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 659 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
A few thunderstorms remain near SPS and OKC/OUN early this
morning, and may continue for a couple more hours. Otherwise,
expect MVFR cigs to return late this morning for a few terminals
before becoming VFR by this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected again tonight, mainly after 00Z. Confidence in timing
is not exceptional, however, so expect some amendments/changes to
future TAFS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/
DISCUSSION...
An MCS continues its track across southern OK and north TX early
this morning. Very heavy rainfall and damaging winds accompanied
it earlier, and are still expected across southern OK through the
early morning hours. Most of this activity should move out of our
area near or before sunrise. Later this afternoon storms will
initiate along the dryline again from the southeastern TX
panhandle into western and northwestern OK, and move east during
the evening hours. Supercells will be likely, with ALL severe
weather threats possible. The highest rainfall totals are again
expected over western and southwestern OK, and western north TX.
These areas already received a significant amount of rainfall this
morning so we have decided to issue a Flood Watch thru early Wed
AM.
The overall forecast has changed very little for the work week.
The severe threat will continue to shift slowly east each day
with the dryline and approaching upper trough. The tornado threat
should also increase during the late afternoon and early evening
hours with the onset of the LLJ, especially across western and
southwestern OK by Tue. There may be a break in COVERAGE Wednesday with
surface convergence becoming a bit more diffuse along the
dryline. However, if any isolated supercells can manage to develop
they will again be capable of producing ALL severe weather
threats.
By Thursday, a southern stream mid to upper level shortwave trough
is expected to lift over northeast TX and into SE OK around mid
day. Heavy rainfall and embedded supercells will be possible with
this activity. Further west, the upper trough will begin to near
the southern plains with rapid height falls and increasing mid to
upper flow expected over the dryline across western OK.
Widespread severe weather continues to appear possible thru
Thursday night, including the threat of tornadoes. Finally, by
Friday, the upper trough will being to lift northeastward but will
not pass overhead until late Friday night. Additional severe
weather will remain possible from along/just west of I35 through
eastern OK.
Additional storm chances are expected through the weekend and into
early next week as another upper trough moves over the western
CONUS and WSW flow aloft ahead of it continues over the Southern
Plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 81 67 83 68 / 30 50 20 50
Hobart OK 83 68 87 69 / 40 60 50 40
Wichita Falls TX 84 69 87 71 / 20 70 30 30
Gage OK 89 67 91 64 / 30 40 20 30
Ponca City OK 81 68 83 69 / 40 40 30 50
Durant OK 83 70 83 70 / 80 50 30 40
&&
.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
morning for OKZ021>023-027-033>039-044-045.
TX...Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
morning for TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
09/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1144 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Convection across western OK will make a run at eastern OK and
have introduced VCTS for the OK TAF sites around 10z...with
VCSH for the AR sites toward 15z. While brief MVFR conditions
can`t be ruled out...expect mainly VFR through the period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
Ongoing thunderstorms in the eastern panhandles making slow
eastward progress. The expectation continues that much of this
will diminish before reaching eastern Oklahoma, with perhaps only
areas along and west of Highway 75 seeing any remnants. Of this
area, it appears that parts of southeast Oklahoma would be the
most favored at this point, given recent data from the HRRR and
current location of the most developed area of convection. Have
made a few minor tweaks to the POPs after 06Z to account for this
thinking, as well as minor changes to the Sky grids to spread
cloud cover into northwest Arkansas faster. Updated forecast
products coming soon.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions expected through the period. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms possible for eastern OK TAF sites late tonight
and into Monday morning.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/
DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge is shifting off to the east and we will be under
the influence of the western U.S. trough for at least the next
week or so. The dryline will remain well to our west for most of
the week, but we will be at risk of seeing at least the remnants
of any storms that develop well to our west making it far enough
east to affect us. Weak impulses moving out of the western trough
may also trigger scattered showers and storms within our forecast
area just about any day this week. Instability will be sufficient
for severe storms, especially from Tuesday on.
The main upper system will finally lift northeast into the central
Plains by Friday, perhaps 12 hours or so sooner than it appeared
at this time yesterday. Thus Friday will likely see the greatest
precipitation coverage, and greatest severe weather risk, of the
week.
Even after this system lifts out, another trough develops near the
West Coast, and the dryline gets left behind to our west, so storm
chances will continue through next weekend, as will the warm and
humid conditions.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.
TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 66 83 69 85 / 10 40 30 30
FSM 62 86 67 84 / 10 30 20 30
MLC 67 83 70 82 / 20 30 30 30
BVO 64 82 67 84 / 10 40 30 30
FYV 58 82 64 80 / 0 20 20 30
BYV 58 82 64 80 / 0 20 20 30
MKO 63 83 68 83 / 10 30 30 30
MIO 63 83 67 82 / 10 30 30 30
F10 66 82 69 83 / 20 40 30 30
HHW 65 85 69 84 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
229 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A few leftover showers may fall across western MA and north
central Conn., as well as south coastal MA and RI through the
early this morning as low pressure slowly moves northeast to the
Gulf of Maine. An upper level high pressure ridge will then bring
very warm to hot weather to most of the region Wednesday through
Saturday, except for cooler temperatures at times on the immediate
coast. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night
into Friday, but a better chance exists Saturday afternoon and
evening ahead of a backdoor cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
145 AM Update...
H5 cutoff low has pushed just E of Cape Cod as seen on latest
water vapor and IR satellite imagery. Winds have diminished to
near calm away from the coast at 05Z obs. Noting patchy dense fog
has started to form across portions of the CT valley into NE CT.
May see more develop over the next few hours across central and
western areas. May also see a few showers develop with the last
of the band crossing out the Berkshires through 08Z-09Z.
Remainder of previous forecast in pretty good shape, but have
updated to bring current.
Previous discussion...
With light winds across the region, along with lowering
temp/dewpoint spreads, will still see patchy fog develop along
with lingering low clouds from around Worcester and Windham
counties eastward through around midnight, but trends continue to
indicate that this should slowly push E during the early morning
hours as the low exits, but will be slowest across E coastal MA.
Partial clearing should begin moving into the CT valley after
midnight as winds back to light NW, then will slowly shift E
overnight. Clouds will linger along the E coast through daybreak.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
*** Summer-like Temperatures Move in Today ***
Today ...
Vertically stacked low just east of Cape Cod at 12z/8am but ejects
seaward quickly with rising heights and northwest flow aloft by
midday. Thus any cloudiness across Eastern MA at sunrise quickly
erodes and/or moves offshore with abundant sunshine for the
afternoon. Warming temps aloft to +14c at 850 mb and +21c at 925 mb
yields surface temps at least 30C/86F. Although with boundary layer
mixing beyond 850 mb highs will make a run at 90 in many locations.
However humidity will be low with dew pts only in the mid to upper
40s. Not as warm along the South Coast including Cape Cod and the
Islands...where winds will bend to the southwest off the cooler
ocean waters.
Wed night ...
Dry, tranquil weather with mid level ridge and associated
anticyclonic flow continuing to build across the region from the
west. Dry airmass in place along with diminishing winds and mostly
clear skies will allow temps to fall into the 50s...except 60-65 in
the urban areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* Well above average temperatures for Thu and Fri with the potential
for a spot thunderstorm
* Hazy, Hot and Humid for Saturday with locations reaching 90+F
* Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
* Back door cold front on Sunday will keep conditions cool into
Monday
OVERVIEW...
Large scale pattern is in agreement with both determinisic and
ensemble guidance. Upper level trough will move eastward towards the
Maritimes as Midwest ridge builds into the Northeast. Anomalous
high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to build this
ridge through Saturday. Anticipate summer-like warmth and humidity
to return to the region as ensembles show both the 700 and 500
heights nearly 1-2 standard deviations above normal. Several waves
will move through the flow keeping a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for Late Thursday and again on
Saturday. Because of the mesoscale differences in the guidance
trended the forecast towards an overall blend. Back door cold front
will swing through by Sunday cooling the area down. However, on
Monday, still some discrepancies with offshore high pressure. The
GFS keeps it closer to the coast keeping temps on Monday cooler
while the EC is weaker and more offshore. Continued with a model
blend for now.
DAILIES...
Thursday into Friday...High Confidence.
Upper level ridge will build into the region on each day. Anticipate
the warm weather to continue into Thursday as 925 mb temps are
generally around 20C. This warm airmass combined with westerly flow
and the warm May sun will help aid in high temps reaching into the
mid to upper 80s with a few 90s near the CT valley. Conditions look
to be cooler along the MA coastline as a sea breeze will develop
from weak winds aloft. A spot shower or thunderstorm may develop in
the afternoon, but most of the region will remain dry.
Weak shortwave will pass through the flow Thursday night. Due to
building heights across the region and weak southwesterly flow,
appears that the better forcing will be north of southern New
England. However, cannot rule out the potential for precip Thursday
night into Friday morning across the north and northwest portion of
the region. Guidance continues to highlight the potential for
elevated convection so continued the mention for thunder in the
forecast for now.
Temperatures on Friday look to be similar as they will be on
Thursday with heights in the mid to upper 80s with a few 90F across
the CT valley. Still a large spread in the guidance on if Boston
will reach 80F as there is question in the sea breeze development.
However 925 mb winds appear to be strong enough to allow for good SW
flow to warm the immediate eastern coastline. This southwest flow
will keep the south coast cooler thanks to onshore flow and the
cooler ocean waters.
Once again a spot shower looks to be possible in the afternoon, but
better forcing and instability appears to remain west of the region.
So another dry weather day is expected.
Saturday...Moderate Confidence
Upper level ridge will strengthen across the the eastern Great Lakes
as warm front lifts northward. A very warm day will be on tap as 925
mb temps will warm to 23-24C. Ensembles continue to show
probabilities that many locations could reach above 90F. This hazy,
hot and humid day does have some caveats. Approaching surface trough
looks to trigger afternoon convection for the region. Some storms
could be strong or severe, but a bit to early to tell.
Sunday into Monday...Moderate Confidence.
Back door cold front will swing through the region late Saturday
night into Sunday. This will cool temperatures down across the
region. The front does look to push and stall across the Hudson.
However, could still see upper 70s or low 80s across the CT river
valley as 925 mb temps are between 18-20C. Otherwise anticipate a
cooler weather day.
Still large spread for surface temps on Monday. GFS and EC have
about a 15 degree difference amongst each other. The GFS is cooler
with highs in the low 70s while the EC is warmer with highs in the
low 80s. Continued with a model blend for now to split the
difference. May see a few sct showers on Monday depending on the
location of the southeast low pressure system and how quickly it
moves northwards towards the region.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 12Z...Moderate confidence, though lower in timing of
improving conditions toward daybreak.
Areas of IFR-LIFR CIGS and mixture of VFR to IFR VSBYS in patchy
fog, lowest across interior E MA and portions of CT valley into NE
CT. Should start to see conditions improve to VFR across CT
valley after 08Z, then slowly progressing E after daybreak. Calm
or light/vrbl winds.
Today...Moderate confidence this morning, then high confidence.
IFR CIGS and areas of MVFR-IFR VSBYS across central-E MA/RI should
improve by mid morning. Otherwise, VFR. W-SW winds 10 kt or less.
Tonight...High confidence. VFR conditions. W-NW winds less than 10
kt.
Thursday...High confidence. VFR. Light W-NW winds, except sea
breezes possible late morning/afternoon along the coast.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. Uncertain on exact timing of
improvement, but should take place by around 10Z.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. otherwise VFR.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.
Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Low confidence. MVFR conditions to start with some
improvements on Sunday as a back door front swings through.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 12Z...High confidence.
Upper level low will slowly move into Massachusetts Bay during
the early morning hours. Light E-NE winds across the eastern
waters will back to N-NW, becoming mainly W of all waters toward
daybreak. Leftover SE swells will linger on the outer waters E
and S of Cape Cod, but should subside below 5 ft by around 08Z-
09Z. Visibility restrictions in patchy fog, locally dense in some
locations, should improve from W-E.
Today...High confidence on all weather parameters.
Low pressure near Cape Cod at sunrise moves east/offshore by
midday with a drying trend and vsby improving to the horizon.
Winds become southwest by midday.
Tonight...High confidence.
Light southwest winds become westerly. Dry weather and vsby
continue.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period. Could see some brief near shore
southwest wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots are possible Friday and
Saturday...which will result in some choppy seas. Otherwise could
see some afternoon convection on Saturday as a back door cold
front swings through.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday...High temperatures soaring well into the 80s to near
90 in most locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values
dropping to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly
wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are anticipated. Given today`s rainfall
and marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the need for
fire weather headlines especially given many locations are near
full green-up.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for RIZ003-004-006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM EDT early
this morning for ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Dunten
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...Dunten/EVT
MARINE...Nocera/Dunten/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...Staff
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
210 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 210 AM EDT...showers have dissipated across all of our region,
and so have many of the clouds.
However, as moisture pooled from the Hudson valley eastward,
patchy dense fog was beginning to form from the Hudson valley
eastward with dewpoints still around 50 or higher, compared to much
lower levels just west, where they were from the upper 30s to mid
40s.
At this time of night, with decoupling, there really is no way for
these dewpoints to advect further east, so we don`t expect much in
them overnight.
We did however, lower some places a couple of degrees. Look for lows
generally 45-50 with light or calm wind.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Good consensus in guidance for sunny to mostly sunny sky over most
of our region Wednesday...but weak upper energy scraping far
northern areas...along with a tightening of the boundary layer
temperature gradient could support some isolated to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms. Winds from the surface through the
boundary layer are expected to be west...and could be a bit gusty
in the afternoon. The mixing should help temperatures reach the
lower to mid 80s in many areas...a few upper 80s mid Hudson Valley
and upper 70s to lower 80s northern areas.
Some mixed signals in guidance as to coverage of clouds and
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and
Friday. Wherever the weak boundary stalls Wednesday night...will
return north Thursday...and could be a diffuse focus for some
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms in northern areas.
Increasing low level moisture and instability could support
diurnal type isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms in other areas of terrain Thursday afternoon and
evening and again Friday afternoon and evening.
There could be some old convective debris that could filter the
sun at times Thursday and Friday...too. Upper level ridging and
low level ridging build east...allowing for deep southwest
flow...warming boundary layer temperatures and increasing low
level humidity. Highs Thursday in the mid to upper 80s with
around 80 to lower 80s in higher terrain. Highs Friday in the mid
to upper 80s...but around 90 southern areas and lower 80s northern
areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast features above normal temperatures for the
holiday weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.
A very active weather pattern across the eastern seaboard as we
monitor the tropics, frontal boundary nearby along with increasing
temperatures and humidity /along with the heat index/. We are well
into the warm sector Friday night as H850 temps surge well into the
mid-teens which should continue into the weekend. However, several
instability factors also climb, although, shear parameters are less
than ideal.
Through Saturday, ridge axis at the surface and especially aloft
builds across the region. As dewpoints climb well into the 60s and
PWATS climbing toward 1.50 inches, it will definitely feel more like
summer. Surface based CAPES too climb toward 2000 J/KG /even higher
with slight modifications of the soundings/ with surface lifted
index values to at or below -5c. So plenty of instability around
but aforementioned shear parameters are generally 15kts or less. For
now, we will leave the chance-scattered PoPs in the grids. Later
into the holiday weekend will be the position of the backdoor front
as the GFS is the most aggressive with taking this front well west
of the region with the ECMWF/GGEM remaining somewhat stationary
across eastern NY. If the later scenario were to verify, the
potential for not only additional convection but heavy rainfall
would be another concern. For now, we will leave in the chance-
scattered PoPs along with partly cloudy-mostly cloudy conditions.
For Memorial Day, confidence is rather low as we monitor the
potential tropical entity along the east coast. Please refer to the
latest tropical outlooks issued by the National Hurricane Center.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
It looks as if we will dealing with quite a bit of IFR flying
conditions through 11Z thanks to residual low level moisture trapped
in the Hudson valley and Berkshires. This despite our local Fog
study program did not forecast any fog in any of the TAFs.
As of 06Z Low IFR was already reported at KGFL and KPSF. While KALB
was still VFR their remarks indicated patches of fog (BCFG) so we
believe they too will have at least temporary times of IFR.
KPOU looks to have some IFR fog although studies have indicated it
is hard to fog at the site.
Any and all fog will be gone before 12Z leaving us to a VFR flying
day as dry air will mix down as a breeze kicks in from the west, 5-
10KTS, gusting to 20KTS by midday at KPSF and KALB. After 12Z clouds
will be few-sct with some cumulus around 5 KFT and a few higher
clouds at times.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
RH values at night tonight and tomorrow night should be in the 70
to 100 percent range. Minimum RH values Wednesday afternoon are
expected to be 30 to 40 percent in southern areas and 40 to 55
percent in northern areas. Minimum RH values on Thursday afternoon
should be 40 to 55 percent.
The surface wind will be light and variable tonight...generally
5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at 10 to 15 mph...with a
few gusts near 20 mph possible in the afternoon. Winds trend to
near calm Wednesday night and then become south at 15 mph or less
Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.
Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms through this evening. At this time additional
rainfall amounts of up to a tenth of an inch in most areas...with
some isolated quarter inch amounts in any thunderstorms in the mid
Hudson Valley...Berkshires and NW CT. We do not expect this
rainfall to produce much if any rises on rivers streams and
reservoirs.
There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM/OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
959 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure departs to the northeast as high pressure builds to
the south on Wednesday. A cold front moves through on Thursday.
High pressure will then dominate through Saturday night as a
series of weak upper level disturbances move across. A cold front
will move through on Sunday. High pressure will build in its wake
across New England Sunday afternoon and night, then pass offshore
Monday, allowing a broad area of low pressure to begin approaching
from the south later Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The forecast is generally on track. persistent showers continue to
track down from new england...so have added chc pops for a few
more hours as a weakening trend is noted on radar as well as in
the hrrr. dry weather should return by midnight with decreasing
clouds overnight. have also added patchy fog to ct coastal areas
and ern long island overnight with light winds and high moisture
content at the sfc. Otherwise...minor adjustments made to hourly
t/td.
The region will be behind a weak surface trough. The upper level
low and associated cold pool aloft shift east of the region. This
will increase subsidence with ridging aloft. The lows were a blend
of 1/3 MET, 1/3 MAV and 1/3 12z GMOS. With lighter winds across
the interior, min temperatures were further lowered by a degree.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For Wednesday, the surface trough will be just east of the
region. This will allow for westerly flow to continue.
Aloft...ridging continues with high pressure establishing itself
southwest of the region. A very warm day is expected with highs
around 15 degrees above normal on average...cooler at the
immediate eastern shorelines with partial sea breeze influences.
Overall though less marine influence with the more westerly flow.
For Wednesday Night, aloft there will be continued ridging. At the
surface, the pressure gradient will become weak with high pressure
becoming weaker and translating farther south into the open
Atlantic. A parent low moves into the Canadian Maritimes but will
be filling in with increasing central pressure...essentially
weakening. The associated cold front moves through by early
Thursday but will be weakening as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summerlike warmth will continue through the first half of the
weekend as longwave upper ridging moves across. Shortwave
disturbances will however be able to move through the longwave ridge
and bring chances for late day convection mainly from NYC north/west
both Friday and Saturday. GFS seems too quick to do so on Thursday
as well, and think any convection that day will be isolated in nature
and confined to well NW of NYC.
High temperatures both Thu/Fri will be well into the 80s in most
places, and some isolated lower 90s are not out of the question somewhere
in urban NE NJ, in the valleys of Orange County, or the interior lower
CT river valley. Lows will range mostly from the mid 50s to the
mid 60s.
The ridge then weakens across New England in response to a sharp
northern stream disturbance moving across eastern Canada, pushing
a back door cold front through on Sunday as a surface high builds
across New England. Forecast details become less certain from
Sunday onward, and will be dependent on how far south the front
sinks. Forecast temperatures could be at least several degrees
cooler and chances for rain lower if the front does push farther
south. Leaning more toward the ECMWF idea of more of a glancing
blow from this cooler air mass for now.
As we go into Monday night and Tuesday, we should start dealing
with influx of Atlantic moisture well north of a subtropical or
tropical weather system now just beginning to organize near and
northeast of the Bahamas, and forecast by global models to head
toward the Southeast coast.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure departs to the northeast as high pressure builds to the
south overnight and Wednesday.
Mid and high clouds give way to clear skies overnight and through
the day Wednesday. However, lingering stratus will take a little
longer to scour out for eastern terminals such as KGON. In addition,
patchy fog will likely develop after midnight for a few outlying
terminals. MVFR or IFR vsbys are possible.
After 12z, any fog lifts.
Winds will be light overnight. West winds 5 to 10 kts in the morning
Wednesday will increase to 9 to 13 kts in the afternoon. A few gusts
are possible in the 15 to 20 kt range.
Winds may back around to the s/sw at KJFK, and CT terminals in the
afternoon with seabreeze influence.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Thursday through Sunday...
.Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Mainly VFR but sub-VFR
possible in showers/evening thunderstorms.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR in showers possible NW of NYC.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday Night, allowing for forecast winds and seas to stay
below SCA criteria.
The only hazard across the forecast waters, mainly the western
forecast waters, will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into early this evening with potential for gusty winds,
heavy rain and small hail. Otherwise no hazardous conditions are
expected.
Minimal SCA conditions mainly in the form of higher ocean seas
may be possible Sunday afternoon and night as easterly flow
increases following a back door cold frontal passage.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
light pcpn amounts (less than 1/10 inch) in any remaining showers this
eve.
Local minor flood impacts from heavier showers/tstms are possible
both late day Friday and Saturday, possibly still well inland well
N/W of NYC on Sunday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
812 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 800 PM EDT...Weak deformation axis association with
scattered to broken band of showers just east of the Hudson River
should continue into the evening hours. The upper low in the
vicinity of Providence, RI is beginning to show signs of tracking
ENE per the latest H2O loop analysis. With this movement we should
see a diminishing trend in the showers which too is suggested by
the HRRR. So main update was to the sky coverage, PoPs/WX, removed
the mention of thunder and expanded the fog a little further west
to include the Hudson River Valley overnight as skies should clear
overnight under diminishing winds. Question will be just how much
fog impact will occur as dewpoints upstream were between 30-40F
compared to mid 50s across eastern NY. We will monitor closely.
Prev disc...Upper low departing northeast slowly but steadily.
Very narrow band of rain in eastern NY with some isolated
thunderstorms from the Berkshires through NW CT and the mid Hudson
Valley. Rain and isolated thunderstorms will build east and
dissipate through the evening...and clearing will take place
through the night.
Quite a bit of clearing outside of the moisture field of the upper
low...so by daybreak most areas should be clear to mostly clear.
There could be some patchy fog as low level winds should trend to
calm and areas with wet ground could support some patchy fog but
with dryer surface dewpoints advecting in...it could minimize
chances for fog. Only including patchy fog for areas east of the
Hudson Valley into western New England where most of the rain has
fallen. Lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Good consensus in guidance for sunny to mostly sunny sky over most
of our region Wednesday...but weak upper energy scraping far
northern areas...along with a tightening of the boundary layer
temperature gradient could support some isolated to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms. Winds from the surface through the
boundary layer are expected to be west...and could be a bit gusty
in the afternoon. The mixing should help temperatures reach the
lower to mid 80s in many areas...a few upper 80s mid Hudson Valley
and upper 70s to lower 80s northern areas.
Some mixed signals in guidance as to coverage of clouds and
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and
Friday. Wherever the weak boundary stalls Wednesday night...will
return north Thursday...and could be a diffuse focus for some
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms in northern areas.
Increasing low level moisture and instability could support
diurnal type isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms in other areas of terrain Thursday afternoon and
evening and again Friday afternoon and evening.
There could be some old convective debris that could filter the
sun at times Thursday and Friday...too. Upper level ridging and
low level ridging build east...allowing for deep southwest
flow...warming boundary layer temperatures and increasing low
level humidity. Highs Thursday in the mid to upper 80s with
around 80 to lower 80s in higher terrain. Highs Friday in the mid
to upper 80s...but around 90 southern areas and lower 80s northern
areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast features above normal temperatures for the
holiday weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.
A very active weather pattern across the eastern seaboard as we
monitor the tropics, frontal boundary nearby along with increasing
temperatures and humidity /along with the heat index/. We are well
into the warm sector Friday night as H850 temps surge well into the
mid-teens which should continue into the weekend. However, several
instability factors also climb, although, shear parameters are less
than ideal.
Through Saturday, ridge axis at the surface and especially aloft
builds across the region. As dewpoints climb well into the 60s and
PWATS climbing toward 1.50 inches, it will definitely feel more like
summer. Surface based CAPES too climb toward 2000 J/KG /even higher
with slight modifications of the soundings/ with surface lifted
index values to at or below -5c. So plenty of instability around
but aforementioned shear parameters are generally 15kts or less. For
now, we will leave the chance-scattered PoPs in the grids. Later
into the holiday weekend will be the position of the backdoor front
as the GFS is the most aggressive with taking this front well west
of the region with the ECMWF/GGEM remaining somewhat stationary
across eastern NY. If the later scenario were to verify, the
potential for not only additional convection but heavy rainfall
would be another concern. For now, we will leave in the chance-
scattered PoPs along with partly cloudy-mostly cloudy conditions.
For Memorial Day, confidence is rather low as we monitor the
potential tropical entity along the east coast. Please refer to the
latest tropical outlooks issued by the National Hurricane Center.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers continue to impact the Hudson River Valley and points east
which is mainly where our TAFs are located. Included a VCSH or a
TEMPO group for the next few hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions
through the evening hours.
The question for tonight will be how much BR/FG form. All
terminals will clear out overnight. Winds will be light but
dewpoints upstream are about 10-15 degrees cooler than those
observed across eastern NY and western NE. At this time, the best
IFR chances for FG are at KPSF/KGFL where showers and trapped
moisture near the inversion. Have also included IFR conditions at
KGFL in BR. At KALB and KPOU...MVFR in BR forecast.
After BR/FG clears /by 12Z-13Z/ VFR conditions will prevail all
terminals for Wednesday.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
RH values at night tonight and tomorrow night should be in the 70
to 100 percent range. Minimum RH values Wednesday afternoon are
expected to be 30 to 40 percent in southern areas and 40 to 55
percent in northern areas. Minimum RH values on Thursday afternoon
should be 40 to 55 percent.
The surface wind will be light and variable tonight...generally
5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at 10 to 15 mph...with a
few gusts near 20 mph possible in the afternoon. Winds trend to
near calm Wednesday night and then become south at 15 mph or less
Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.
Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms through this evening. At this time additional
rainfall amounts of up to a tenth of an inch in most areas...with
some isolated quarter inch amounts in any thunderstorms in the mid
Hudson Valley...Berkshires and NW CT. We do not expect this
rainfall to produce much if any rises on rivers streams and
reservoirs.
There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
www.weather.gov/albany
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
737 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks northeast through tonight,
moving into the Gulf of Maine. An associated weak surface trough
will move east of the region tonight. High pressure builds in
from the southwest briefly for late tonight and Wednesday. This
weakens and moves farther offshore Wednesday Night as a weakening
cold front moves through by early Thursday. High pressure will
dominate through Saturday night as a series of weak upper level
disturbances move across. A back door cold front will move through
on Sunday. High pressure will build in its wake across New England
Sunday afternoon and night, then pass offshore Monday, allowing a
broad area of low pressure to begin approaching from the south
later Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The forecast is generally on track. Made some adjustments to pops
next couple of hours based on latest radar trends. Showers
continue to weaken this eve and dry weather should return by
midnight. Otherwise...minor adjustments made to hourly t/td and
winds.
The region will be behind a weak surface trough. The upper level
low and associated cold pool aloft shift east of the region. This
will increase subsidence with ridging aloft. The lows were a blend
of 1/3 MET, 1/3 MAV and 1/3 12z GMOS. 850mb temperatures increase
through the night. A light westerly flow is conveyed by the models
which will help mix down some relatively warmer air tonight
despite the decrease in clouds, thereby mitigating radiational
cooling. With lighter winds across the interior, min temperatures
were further lowered by a degree. Also with lighter winds across
the interior and residual low level moisture...there could be some
patchy fog late into early Wednesday Morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For Wednesday, the surface trough will be just east of the
region. This will allow for westerly flow to continue.
Aloft...ridging continues with high pressure establishing itself
southwest of the region. A very warm day is expected with highs
around 15 degrees above normal on average...cooler at the
immediate eastern shorelines with partial sea breeze influences.
Overall though less marine influence with the more westerly flow.
For Wednesday Night, aloft there will be continued ridging. At the
surface, the pressure gradient will become weak with high pressure
becoming weaker and translating farther south into the open
Atlantic. A parent low moves into the Canadian Maritimes but will
be filling in with increasing central pressure...essentially
weakening. The associated cold front moves through by early
Thursday but will be weakening as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summerlike warmth will continue through the first half of the
weekend as longwave upper ridging moves across. Shortwave
disturbances will however be able to move through the longwave ridge
and bring chances for late day convection mainly from NYC north/west
both Friday and Saturday. GFS seems too quick to do so on Thursday
as well, and think any convection that day will be isolated in nature
and confined to well NW of NYC.
High temperatures both Thu/Fri will be well into the 80s in most
places, and some isolated lower 90s are not out of the question somewhere
in urban NE NJ, in the valleys of Orange County, or the interior lower
CT river valley. Lows will range mostly from the mid 50s to the
mid 60s.
The ridge then weakens across New England in response to a sharp
northern stream disturbance moving across eastern Canada, pushing
a back door cold front through on Sunday as a surface high builds
across New England. Forecast details become less certain from
Sunday onward, and will be dependent on how far south the front
sinks. Forecast temperatures could be at least several degrees
cooler and chances for rain lower if the front does push farther
south. Leaning more toward the ECMWF idea of more of a glancing
blow from this cooler air mass for now.
As we go into Monday night and Tuesday, we should start dealing
with influx of Atlantic moisture well north of a subtropical or
tropical weather system now just beginning to organize near and
northeast of the Bahamas, and forecast by global models to head
toward the Southeast coast.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure departs to the northeast as high pressure builds to the
south tonight and Wednesday.
Mid and high clouds give way to clear skies overnight and through
the day Wednesday. However, lingering stratus will take a little
longer to scour out for eastern terminals such as KGON. In addition,
patchy fog will likely develop after midnight for a few outlying
terminals. MVFR or IFR vsbys are possible.
After 12z, any fog lifts.
Winds will be light tonight. West winds 5 to 10 kts in the morning
Wednesday will increase to 9 to 13 kts in the afternoon. A few gusts
are possible in the 15 to 20 kt range.
Winds may back around to the s/sw at KJFK, and CT terminals in the
afternoon with seabreeze influence.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. A late
day seabreeze is expected Wednesday.
KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. West
winds will increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. West
winds will increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. West
winds will increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KHPN TAF Comments: Patchy fog is possible overnight. West winds will
increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. A late
day seabreeze may approach the airport Wednesday, but do not
expect the seabreeze to move through at this time.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Thursday through Sunday...
.Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Mainly VFR but sub-VFR
possible in showers/evening thunderstorms.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR in showers possible NW of NYC.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday Night, allowing for forecast winds and seas to stay
below SCA criteria.
The only hazard across the forecast waters, mainly the western
forecast waters, will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into early this evening with potential for gusty winds,
heavy rain and small hail. Otherwise no hazardous conditions are
expected.
Minimal SCA conditions mainly in the form of higher ocean seas
may be possible Sunday afternoon and night as easterly flow
increases following a back door cold frontal passage.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of less than 1/4 inch are expected into early
this evening. Locally higher amounts will be possible in
thunderstorms.
Local minor flood impacts from heavier showers/tstms are possible
both late day Friday and Saturday, possibly still well inland well
N/W of NYC on Sunday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
703 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will continue across portions of Southern RI
and southeast MA early this evening as low pressure slowly moves
across southeastern New England. An upper level high pressure
ridge will then bring very warm to hot weather to most of the
region Wednesday through Saturday, except for cooler temperatures
at times on the immediate coast. A few showers and thunderstorms
are possible Thursday night into Friday, but a better chance
exists Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of a backdoor cold
front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
700 PM Update...
Overall forecast is on track. Removed the thunder mention for this
evening as convection has remained just west of southern New
England. Also increased precip trends across RI and southeast MA
as area of showers continues to develop and spin as the upper
level low begins to slowly shift eastward. Otherwise breaks of sun
across western MA as allowed for temps to warm in to the upper 60s
late this afternoon. Onshore flow across eastern MA will continue
until the low shifts eastward creating more of a northerly flow.
Fog and drizzle will remain over the next several hours.
May need to watch for radiational fog development tonight across
the low lying areas as lingering low level moisture combined with
cooling temperatures will create a low temp/dewpoint spread. Dense
fog is not expected at this time.
Previous Discussion...
An area of showers may develop over Southern-Southeastern RI into
Southeast MA as plume of deeper moisture pivots northeast off the
ocean into that area. This is supported by multi model K indices
and latest trends seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Already
seeing the first signs of this with light showers developing over
Marthas Vineyard and Elizabeth Islands. However these showers
should be weak/low top with not a lot of impact. Thus not a
washout expected this evening.
Otherwise drying trend second half of the night as vertically
stacked low moves offshore by sunrise.
Temps seasonably cool tonight with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
*** Summer-like Temperatures Arrive Wednesday ***
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ...
Vertically stacked low just east of Cape Cod at 12z/8am but ejects
seaward quickly with rising heights and northwest flow aloft by
midday. Thus any cloudiness across Eastern MA at sunrise quickly
erodes and/or moves offshore with abundant sunshine for the
afternoon. Warming temps aloft to +14c at 850 mb and +21c at 925 mb
yields surface temps at least 30C/86F. Although with boundary layer
mixing beyond 850 mb highs will make a run at 90 in many locations.
However humidity will be low with dew pts only in the mid to upper
40s. Not as warm along the South Coast including Cape Cod and the
Islands...where winds will bend to the southwest off the cooler
ocean waters.
Wed night ...
Dry, tranquil weather with mid level ridge and associated
anticyclonic flow continuing to build across the region from the
west. Dry airmass in place along with diminishing winds and mostly
clear skies will allow temps to fall into the 50s...except 60-65 in
the urban areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* Well above average temperatures for Thu and Fri with the potential
for a spot thunderstorm
* Hazy, Hot and Humid for Saturday with locations reaching 90+F
* Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
* Back door cold front on Sunday will keep conditions cool into
Monday
OVERVIEW...
Large scale pattern is in agreement with both determinisic and
ensemble guidance. Upper level trough will move eastward towards the
Maritimes as Midwest ridge builds into the Northeast. Anomalous
high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to build this
ridge through Saturday. Anticipate summer-like warmth and humidity
to return to the region as ensembles show both the 700 and 500
heights nearly 1-2 standard deviations above normal. Several waves
will move through the flow keeping a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for Late Thursday and again on
Saturday. Because of the mesoscale differences in the guidance
trended the forecast towards an overall blend. Back door cold front
will swing through by Sunday cooling the area down. However, on
Monday, still some discrepancies with offshore high pressure. The
GFS keeps it closer to the coast keeping temps on Monday cooler
while the EC is weaker and more offshore. Continued with a model
blend for now.
DAILIES...
Thursday into Friday...High Confidence.
Upper level ridge will build into the region on each day. Anticipate
the warm weather to continue into Thursday as 925 mb temps are
generally around 20C. This warm airmass combined with westerly flow
and the warm May sun will help aid in high temps reaching into the
mid to upper 80s with a few 90s near the CT valley. Conditions look
to be cooler along the MA coastline as a sea breeze will develop
from weak winds aloft. A spot shower or thunderstorm may develop in
the afternoon, but most of the region will remain dry.
Weak shortwave will pass through the flow Thursday night. Due to
building heights across the region and weak southwesterly flow,
appears that the better forcing will be north of southern New
England. However, cannot rule out the potential for precip Thursday
night into Friday morning across the north and northwest portion of
the region. Guidance continues to highlight the potential for
elevated convection so continued the mention for thunder in the
forecast for now.
Temperatures on Friday look to be similar as they will be on
Thursday with heights in the mid to upper 80s with a few 90F across
the CT valley. Still a large spread in the guidance on if Boston
will reach 80F as there is question in the sea breeze development.
However 925 mb winds appear to be strong enough to allow for good SW
flow to warm the immediate eastern coastline. This southwest flow
will keep the south coast cooler thanks to onshore flow and the
cooler ocean waters.
Once again a spot shower looks to be possible in the afternoon, but
better forcing and instability appears to remain west of the region.
So another dry weather day is expected.
Saturday...Moderate Confidence
Upper level ridge will strengthen across the the eastern Great Lakes
as warm front lifts northward. A very warm day will be on tap as 925
mb temps will warm to 23-24C. Ensembles continue to show
probabilities that many locations could reach above 90F. This hazy,
hot and humid day does have some caveats. Approaching surface trough
looks to trigger afternoon convection for the region. Some storms
could be strong or severe, but a bit to early to tell.
Sunday into Monday...Moderate Confidence.
Back door cold front will swing through the region late Saturday
night into Sunday. This will cool temperatures down across the
region. The front does look to push and stall across the Hudson.
However, could still see upper 70s or low 80s across the CT river
valley as 925 mb temps are between 18-20C. Otherwise anticipate a
cooler weather day.
Still large spread for surface temps on Monday. GFS and EC have
about a 15 degree difference amongst each other. The GFS is cooler
with highs in the low 70s while the EC is warmer with highs in the
low 80s. Continued with a model blend for now to split the
difference. May see a few sct showers on Monday depending on the
location of the southeast low pressure system and how quickly it
moves northwards towards the region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight ... Moderate confidence with uncertainty centered around
except timing of improving conditions overnight.
Isolated lighter showers east of the Worcester Hills tonight.
Mainly MVFR all terminals except Coastal MA which will see periods
of IFR. VFR across the CT valley. Cigs and vsby improve from west
to east after 06z.
Wed ... high confidence.
Any leftover MVFR cigs at sunrise will be across Eastern MA but
quickly lifting to VFR by 15z or sooner. Dry weather and west
winds except southwest along the coast.
Wed night ... high confidence.
VFR/DRY and light sw winds becoming west.
KBOS TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 06z.
KBDL TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 03z-06z.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday...High confidence. VFR.
Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.
Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Low confidence. MVFR conditions to start with some
improvements on Sunday as a back door front swings through.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
4 pm update ...
Tonight ... high confidence except uncertainty on areal coverage of
showers and exact timing.
Vertically stacked low over the RI waters will slowly drift to Cape
Cod by morning. Few light rain showers will accompany this low along
with patchy fog. Leftover southeast swell of 3-6 ft continue across
the Southeast MA ocean waters.
Wed ... high confidence on all weather parameters.
Low pressure near Cape Cod at sunrise moves east/offshore by midday
with a drying trend and vsby improving to the horizon. Winds become
southwest by midday.
Wed night ... high confidence.
Light southwest winds become westerly. Dry weather and vsby
continue.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period. Could see some brief near shore
southwest wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots are possible Friday and
Saturday...which will result in some choppy seas. Otherwise could
see some afternoon convection on Saturday as a back door cold
front swings through.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ... High temperatures soaring well into the 80s to near
90 in most locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values
dropping to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly
wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are anticipated. Given this morning`s
rainfall and marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the
need for fire weather headlines especially given many locations
are near full green-up.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ003-
004-006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Dunten
NEAR TERM...Nocera/Dunten
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...Nocera/Dunten
MARINE...Nocera/Dunten
FIRE WEATHER...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
411 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms over
Western portions of MA and CT will continue into early this
evening. Scattered showers may also develop across portions of
Southern RI and southeast MA early this evening as low pressure
slowly moves across southeastern New England. An upper level high
pressure ridge will then bring very warm to hot weather to most of
the region Wednesday through Saturday, except for cooler
temperatures at times on the immediate coast. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday, but a
better chance exists Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of a
backdoor cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
400 PM Update ...
Vertically stacked low over the region with -19c air at 500 mb. This
cold air aloft combined with cyclonic flow is resulting in
scattered showers and embedded thunder. The convection is focused
on the western side of the low where SPC mesoanalysis indicates some
baroclinicity at 850 mb and 925 mb along with some breaks of
sunshine yielding 250-500 j/kg of SB cape per mesoanalysis. This
will continue to be the theme thru sunset with convection focused
across this region.
A second area of showers may develop over Southern-Southeastern RI
into Southeast MA as plume of deeper moisture pivots northeast off
the ocean into that area. This is supported by multi model K indices
and latest trends seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Already
seeing the first signs of this with light showers developing over
Marthas Vineyard and Elizabeth Islands. However these showers should
be weak/low top with not a lot of impact. Thus not a washout
expected this evening.
Otherwise drying trend second half of the night as vertically
stacked low moves offshore by sunrise.
Temps seasonably cool tonight with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
*** Summer-like Temperatures Arrive Wednesday ***
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ...
Vertically stacked low just east of Cape Cod at 12z/8am but ejects
seaward quickly with rising heights and northwest flow aloft by
midday. Thus any cloudiness across Eastern MA at sunrise quickly
erodes and/or moves offshore with abundant sunshine for the
afternoon. Warming temps aloft to +14c at 850 mb and +21c at 925 mb
yields surface temps at least 30C/86F. Although with boundary layer
mixing beyond 850 mb highs will make a run at 90 in many locations.
However humidity will be low with dew pts only in the mid to upper
40s. Not as warm along the South Coast including Cape Cod and the
Islands...where winds will bend to the southwest off the cooler
ocean waters.
Wed night ...
Dry, tranquil weather with mid level ridge and associated
anticyclonic flow continuing to build across the region from the
west. Dry airmass in place along with diminishing winds and mostly
clear skies will allow temps to fall into the 50s...except 60-65 in
the urban areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...
* Very warm Wed/Thu/Fri with highs well up into the 80s except
cooler immediate coast at times
* Hot Saturday afternoon w/highs mainly upper 80s to the lower 90s
* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri but best chance Sat
afternoon/evening ahead of cold front
* Turning much cooler Sun and especially Mon along the coast
Details...
Wednesday night...Other than a low risk for a spot shower/t-storm
across the interior during the evening dry weather is expected
behind a weak cold front. Low temps will only fall back into the 50s
in most locations with 60 to 65 in some of the urban centers. A
touch of patchy fog may develop in the typically prone locations
toward daybreak.
Thursday...Upper level ridging across the Southeast U.S. continues
to nose into southern New England. This will result in plenty of
sunshine and with warm mid level temps, highs again should reach
well into the 80s in most locations. However, gradient will be
weaker allowing for sea breezes to develop on the immediate Eastern
MA coast including Boston by early afternoon. High temps will still
likely reach well up into the 70s to near 80 in this region before
sea breezes develop and temps fall a bit. Should remain dry given
lack of forcing and upper level ridging nosing into this region.
Thursday night and Friday...A shortwave will lift northeast into
northern New England Thu night/Fri. While the best forcing will to
our north, a few showers/t-storms are possible with the best chance
across western and northern MA. Certainly not expecting a washout
though and the majority of the Thu night/Fri will be dry.
Still looks like a warm afternoon with temps into the 80s, but it
may be cooler across Northeast MA depending on location of backdoor
cold front.
Saturday...A hot day with westerly flow and 850T near 16c. This
should yield highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations.
Dewpoints into the 60s will make it feel somewhat muggy.
Pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front may trigger
scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly Saturday afternoon and
evening.
Sunday and Monday...High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will
build south into New England. So despite rather high height fields,
northeast low level flow will result in much cooler temps Sun and
especially Mon particularly along the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Some improvement in vsbys observed over past 1 to 2 hours but
cigs slow to rise in onshore flow across much of the area. Believe
will begin to rise into the VFR range across the CT River Valley
by mid afternoon. Rest of the area should see very slow
improvement into at least low MVFR cig range, although there could
be a few holdouts below one thousand feet in SE coastal areas.
Scattered showers and even isolated thunderstorm or two could
develop late this afternoon/evening over portions of RI and SE MA.
There could also be scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms that
develop during the late afternoon near the Berkshire Crest.
Tonight ... Moderate confidence with uncertainty centered around
except timing of improving conditions overnight.
Showers with isolated thunder focused across Western portions of
MA and CT. Isolated lighter showers elsewhere. Mainly MVFR all
terminals except Coastal MA. Showers dissipate with sunset and
cigs and vsby improve after 06z.
Wed ... high confidence.
Any leftover MVFR cigs at sunrise will be across Eastern MA but
quickly lifting to VFR by 15z or sooner. Dry weather and west
winds except southwest along the coast.
Wed night ... high confidence.
VFR/DRY and light sw winds becoming west.
KBOS TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 06z.
KBDL TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 03z-06z. Showers
should stay west of BDL airspace but will be close and need to
watch early this evening.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday...High confidence. VFR conditions other than a few hours
of patchy ground fog possible toward daybreak Thu in the typically
prone locations.
Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.
Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
4 pm update ...
Tonight ... high confidence except uncertainty on areal coverage of
showers and exact timing.
Vertically stacked low over the RI waters will slowly drift to Cape
Cod by morning. Few light rain showers will accompany this low along
with patchy fog. Leftover southeast swell of 3-6 ft continue across
the Southeast MA ocean waters.
Wed ... high confidence on all weather parameters.
Low pressure near Cape Cod at sunrise moves east/offshore by midday
with a drying trend and vsby improving to the horizon. Winds become
southwest by midday.
Wed night ... high confidence.
Light southwest winds become westerly. Dry weather and vsby
continue.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period with the exception being Wednesday
night. Some brief near shore southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25
knots are likely Wed afternoon...which will result in some choppy
seas. In addition, long southwest fetch may bring a period of 5
foot seas across our southern waters Wednesday night which may
require headlines.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ... High temperatures soaring well into the 80s to near
90 in most locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values
dropping to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly
wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are anticipated. Given this morning`s
rainfall and marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the
need for fire weather headlines especially given many locations
are near full green-up.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ003-
004-006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera
NEAR TERM...Nocera
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/Nocera
MARINE...Frank/Nocera
FIRE WEATHER...Nocera
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
248 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks northeast through tonight,
moving into the Gulf of Maine. An associated weak surface trough
will move east of the region tonight. High pressure builds in
from the southwest briefly for late tonight and Wednesday. This
weakens and moves farther offshore Wednesday Night as a weakening
cold front moves through by early Thursday. This lifts north as a
warm front later in the day Thursday. High pressure remains
situated over the western Atlantic through the first half of the
weekend. A backdoor cold front moves through on late Saturday
night into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Higher vorticity advection associated with residual cold pool
aloft with lingering upper level low combined with increased
daytime heating has led to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Some gusty winds and small hail as well as heavy rain are possible
for brief periods of time with these thunderstorms. Most of the
convection has been confined to Southwest Connecticut and Western
Long Island Sound. With CAPE values forecast of a few hundred J/KG
more showers and thunderstorms will be possible with coverage
being scattered. This will decrease with loss of diurnal heating
and as cold pool aloft shift farther east this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight, the region will be behind a weak surface trough. The
upper level low and associated cold pool aloft shift east of the
region. This will increase subsidence with ridging aloft. The
lows were a blend of 1/3 MET, 1/3 MAV and 1/3 12z GMOS. 850mb
temperatures increase through the night. A light westerly flow is
conveyed by the models which will help mix down some relatively
warmer air tonight despite the decrease in clouds, thereby
mitigating radiational cooling. With lighter winds across the
interior, min temperatures were further lowered by a degree.
For Wednesday, the surface trough will be just east of the region.
This will allow for westerly flow to continue. Aloft...ridging
continues with high pressure establishing itself southwest of the
region. A very warm day is expected with highs around 15 degrees
above normal on average...cooler at the immediate eastern
shorelines with partial sea breeze influences. Overall though less
marine influence with the more westerly flow.
For Wednesday Night, aloft there will be continued ridging. At the
surface, the pressure gradient will become weak with high pressure
becoming weaker and translating farther south into the open
Atlantic. A parent low moves into the Canadian Maritimes but will
be filling in with increasing central pressure...essentially
weakening. The associated cold front moves through by early
Thursday but will be weakening as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak area of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will push a
cold front through the area Wednesday night. This front will then
head quickly back north as a warm front, moving through Thursday
afternoon.
Thereafter, there will be a prolonged period of southerly flow as
surface high pressure settles over the Western Atlantic. At the same
time, ridging aloft will mean rising heights and therefore, warming
temperatures, mainly for areas away from the coast. Closer to the
coast, flow off the cooler ocean waters will keep these areas a few
degrees cooler than inland. With a southerly flow, dewpoints will
also be on the rise. By the weekend, dewpoints could be in the lower
60s, making it slightly uncomfortable for some.
The 00Z ECMWF and the 00Z GFS are in better agreement on the passage
of a back door cold front late Saturday night into Sunday (quicker
than previously forecast). Thereafter, the 2 models differ. The GFS
continues to nose a strong high pressure from southeastern Canada
into the area, while the ECMWF keeps this high off the Atlantic
coast, and is weaker. Though the 00Z ECMWF does nose the high
pressure farther inland than the previous run. The GFS solution
would keep the area dry for the beginning of next week, while the
ECMWF would keep it unsettled. Due to the uncertainty, a blend of
models seems reasonable.
The cold frontal passages Wednesday night looks to come through dry
with limited moisture to work with. There may be some showers and
thunderstorms with the warm frontal passage on Thursday, mainly
inland as the lower temperatures over the coastal areas stabilizes
those areas. A thermal trough sets up over inland areas for Friday
and Saturday, which will mean diurnal showers and thunderstorms for
these areas. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible with
the backdoor cold front passage late Sunday into Sunday night. This
will not be a continuous rainfall event from Friday through Sunday
night.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will pass through the terminals
through this evening. Will carry VCSH/VCTS in the 18Z TAFs through
this evening, but confidence on timing and coverage is low.
Generally a VFR forecast. Conds may briefly lower to MVFR in
SHRA/TSRA. In addition, MVFR VSBY possible in areas of BR late
tonight, mainly away from KNYC terminals.
Winds generally ranging from N to NW at 5-10 KT. Winds become
LGT/VRB this evening and tonight.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KISP TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Wednesday through Sunday...
.Wednesday through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Occasional MVFR in
showers/thunderstorms possible.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday Night, allowing for forecast winds and seas to stay
below SCA criteria.
The only hazard across the forecast waters, mainly the western
forecast waters, will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into early this evening with potential for gusty winds,
heavy rain and small hail. Otherwise no hazardous conditions are
expected.
Winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria for the long term
with light a pressure gradient.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of less than 1/4 inch are expected for the rest
into early this evening. Locally higher amounts will be possible
in thunderstorms.
No concerns for hydrology Wednesday through Monday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
150 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks northeast today and tonight,
moving along the New England coast. High pressure builds in
briefly for late tonight and Wednesday. A cold front moves
through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and lifts north
as a warm front later in the day Thursday. High pressure remains
situated over the western Atlantic through the first half of the
weekend. A backdoor cold front moves through on late Saturday
night into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The forecast is pretty much on track here. There were some slight
adjustments to better match observed trends with regards to
temperatures, dewpoints, and pops for showers. Otherwise though, no
remarkable changes were made to the forecast database.
A weakening low south of Cape Cod tracks slowly northeast through
today. A weak surface trough extends back from the low into the
lower Hudson Valley. Meanwhile an upper closed, and nearly cutoff
low, east southeast of the Delmarva, as seen on the water vapor
loop, drifts north to northeast and begins to fill and get picked
up by the northern stream.
With areas of energy rotating around the low and the surface low,
showers will continue through this morning, eventually becoming
more scattered this afternoon. Instability is very weak this
morning and generally less than 50 J/KG but this will increase
this afternoon to a few hundred J/KG with increased daytime
heating at the surface. Forecast includes isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight the upper low continues to fill and becomes an open wave
after 06Z and the northern stream carries the low into Maine and
Nova Scotia, merging with low pressure over eastern Canada. The
surface low becomes nearly indistinguishable by late tonight, also
merging with a surface low over eastern Canada. By 00Z
precipitation is quickly ending as heights rise from as weak upper
ridging builds to the west. This ridge builds through Wednesday
with dry weather late this evening through Wednesday.
Warmer air continues to move into the region tonight through
Wednesday at the lower and mid levels. A dramatic warmup is
expected across the entire region as a westerly flow allows even
coastal areas to warm to well above seasonal normals.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak area of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will push a
cold front through the area Wednesday night. This front will then
head quickly back north as a warm front, moving through Thursday
afternoon.
Thereafter, there will be a prolonged period of southerly flow as
surface high pressure settles over the Western Atlantic. At the same
time, ridging aloft will mean rising heights and therefore, warming
temperatures, mainly for areas away from the coast. Closer to the
coast, flow off the cooler ocean waters will keep these areas a few
degrees cooler than inland. With a southerly flow, dewpoints will
also be on the rise. By the weekend, dewpoints could be in the lower
60s, making it slightly uncomfortable for some.
The 00Z ECMWF and the 00Z GFS are in better agreement on the passage
of a back door cold front late Saturday night into Sunday (quicker
than previously forecast). Thereafter, the 2 models differ. The GFS
continues to nose a strong high pressure from southeastern Canada
into the area, while the ECMWF keeps this high off the Atlantic
coast, and is weaker. Though the 00Z ECMWF does nose the high
pressure farther inland than the previous run. The GFS solution
would keep the area dry for the beginning of next week, while the
ECMWF would keep it unsettled. Due to the uncertainty, a blend of
models seems reasonable.
The cold frontal passages Wednesday night looks to come through dry
with limited moisture to work with. There may be some showers and
thunderstorms with the warm frontal passage on Thursday, mainly
inland as the lower temperatures over the coastal areas stabilizes
those areas. A thermal trough sets up over inland areas for Friday
and Saturday, which will mean diurnal showers and thunderstorms for
these areas. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible with
the backdoor cold front passage late Sunday into Sunday night. This
will not be a continuous rainfall event from Friday through Sunday
night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will pass through the terminals
through this evening. Will carry VCSH/VCTS in the 18Z TAFs through
this evening, but confidence on timing and coverage is low.
Generally a VFR forecast. Conds may briefly lower to MVFR in
SHRA/TSRA. In addition, MVFR VSBY possible in areas of BR late
tonight, mainly away from KNYC terminals.
Winds generally ranging from N to NW at 5-10 KT. Winds become
LGT/VRB this evening and tonight.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KISP TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Wednesday through Sunday...
.Wednesday through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Occasional MVFR in
showers/thunderstorms possible.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday as a weakening low south of Cape Cod tracks to the
northeast through tonight and high pressure builds in late tonight
and Wednesday.
The only hazard across the forecast waters will be isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening. Otherwise
no hazardous conditions are expected.
Winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria for the long term
with light a pressure gradient.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of less than 1/4 inch are expected for the rest
of today into this evening. Locally higher amounts will be
possible in isolated thunderstorms.
No concerns for hydrology Wednesday through Monday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...JM/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
147 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over southeast Long Island will bring scattered to
numerous showers across our region from the Capital District south
and east today with perhaps a rumble of afternoon thunder. Clouds
will keep temperatures a little less warm than yesterday. This
storm will move to our east tonight and high pressure will briefly
build in through early Wednesday. A weak front will bring some
showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the Capital region
Wednesday afternoon. After that, a large Bermuda high will take
hold of our weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 134 PM EDT...A closed off upper level low is located just
southeast of the region off the coast of southern New England to
the east of Long Island. Moisture wrapping around this feature
continues to allow for some showers. The bulk of these have been
occurring over southern Vermont and into adjacent Washington and
Rensselaer Counties New York. Some parts of southern Vermont have
seen locally around an inch of rainfall according to the latest
MRMS precip estimation.
Temps continue to vary from northwest to southeast across the area
this afternoon. Thanks to partly to mostly sunny skies, some
parts of the central/western Adirondacks have already reached into
the mid 70s, while southern and eastern areas seeing lots of
clouds remain only in the low 60s. Temps look to be fairly steady
for the afternoon hours, with the warmest readings in northwest
parts of the area. Most places from Albany on south/east won`t see
much sun for the remainder of the day.
The latest 16z 3km HRRR suggests that the threat for showers will
remain in the forecast for this afternoon, mainly for areas east
of the Hudson River. There might be enough instability with colder
temperatures aloft for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon,
although most areas won`t see any thunder. Will continue with just
a slight chance of thunder for much of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cutoff low is forecast to drift east of Cape Cod tonight taking
all the showers with it. Weak high pressure will build tonight
into early Wednesday with a return to sunshine and higher
temperatures back to 80-85 in the valleys, mid to upper 70s over
the higher elevations.
By afternoon, a weak back door front looks to slip southward into
the Adirondacks touching off some scattered showers and possibly
thunderstorms. One or two cells could make it south into the Capital
region and even northern Catskills.
A west to southwest wind 5-15 mph will become northwesterly during
the afternoon.
The front looks to washout by Wednesday night over the region as it
slides to our south. Wednesday night looks dry with perhaps a
little patchy fog as the wind will become light or calm overnight.
Thursday will start out dry, but with increasing moisture, and
perhaps a weak short wave, some scattered showers or thunderstorms
could develop by afternoon across the region. These will be hit and
miss with many areas likely not getting any rain at all.
Otherwise, temperatures will climb in the mid or upper 80s in the
valleys, 75-80 higher terrain. Dewpoints will reach the lower 60s in
the Hudson valley south of Albany, mid or upper 50s further north so
it will feel a little uncomfortably warm to some.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended forecast features above normal temperatures for the
holiday weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.
Friday-Friday night...the warm front finally moves through eastern
NY and western New England during this time frame. A warm and humid
air mass settles in...as dewpoints rise into the 60s. The boundary
will likely be in the vicinity of the forecast area...and a weak
short-wave in the west to southwest flow aloft will likely focus
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The latest GFS20
has modest SBCAPEs in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, but the amount of
deep shear remains uncertain. It is hard to ascertain if the
convection will be severe this far out. H850 temps rise to +14C to
+16C with highs in the lower to mid 80s in the valley
locations...and mid 70s to around 80F over the mountains. The
showers and thunderstorms should diminish quickly with the boundary
retreating northward and the daytime heating gone. Lows will be
upper 50s to lower 60s over most of the forecast area.
Saturday-Saturday Night...The subtropical high builds in from the
western Atlantic. The ALY forecast get into a warm sector. H850
temps nudge up to +15C to +17C on the latest ECMWF. PWATs increase
to 1-1.5 inches. The GFS model soundings do not look very capped.
Pop-up diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible
capable of heavy rainfall. The big question is the timing of the
backdoor cold front from Northern New England and southeast Canada.
The guidance varies on the timing and placement of the boundary. Our
forecast reflects a timing more Saturday night into Sunday. Highs
will be steamy for late May with humidity levels on the increase.
Highs will be mainly in the mid and upper 80s for elevations at 1000
ft or lower...and upper 70s to lower 80s over the mountains. A
slight to low chc of showers and thunderstorms will likely linger
most of the night as the backdoor cold front dips south/southwest
across the region.
Sunday into Memorial Day...Temps look a bit cooler...closer to
normal for late May on Sunday...as the backdoor cold front stalls
over central NY...eastern PA and northern NJ. The ECMWF has H850
temps fall back to +10C to +12C from east to west over the forecast
area...as the cold front moves through...and high pressure builds in
from New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. There will continue to be solid
chances of showers and thunderstorms as the cold front looks to move
through. The amount of instability available will be the main issue
for any strong to severe thunderstorms as the shear increases. This
will continue to be monitored over the next several days. Highs on
Sunday fall back into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Lows Sunday night
fall back into the 50s to lower 60s. Memorial Day will feature a
threat of a shower or thunderstorm...but it is uncertain where the
frontal boundary goes. The latest WPC guidance has it move north
into southern Quebec and Northern New England again. When a boundary
is in the area with light to moderate amounts of instability and
appreciable moisture...then a slight to low chc of showers and
thunderstorms...especially in the afternoon will persist through the
holiday weekend. Overall...it does not look like a washout at this
point. After lows Sunday night in the 50s...highs will likely be in
the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Still some spokes of precipitation rotating around the low
pressure system to our east. Have VCSH at all terminals for the
afternoon. Not out of the question that a terminal could drop to
MVFR conditions in a shower...or perhaps IFR...but chances are
slight. Slight chances for TSRA this afternoon as well...but not
sufficient to warrant mention in TAFs. So will maintain VFR at
all terminals this afternoon.
Question for tonight will be how much BR/FG form. All terminals
will clear out tonight. Winds will be light. Best chances for FG
are at KPSF where showers deposited around 0.2 inch of rain today.
Have also included IFR conditions at KGFL in BR. At KALB and
KPOU...MVFR in BR forecast.
After BR/FG clears /by 12Z-13Z/ VFR conditions will prevail all
terminals for Wednesday through 18z.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH levels should remain elevated today dropping not low than about
50 percent most places. There will be scattered to numerous showers
mainly from the Capital region south and eastward. Most areas will
likely not receive a quarter inch, except perhaps Litchfield county
into the Mid Hudson valley and southern Catskills.
The showers will move out tonight leaving us with a nearly fully
recovery and likely the formation of dew as the wind will be light.
Wednesday, will start out dry and sunny. A weak disturbance could
trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the
Capital region but a few could stray further south.
A full recovery tonight as the showers move out followed by warm
increasingly humid weather for the balance of the week.
Low pressure tracking close to southern New England will
scattered to numerous showers from the Capital region and perhaps
an afternoon thunderstorm to locations from the Capital Region
south and east. Weak high pressure will build east off the mid
Atlantic states and summer like weather will spread across our
region from the southwest through the end of next week.
The surface wind will be light out of the north or northeast through
Tuesday, generally 5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at 10 to
15 mph...with a few gusts near 20 mph possible in the afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.
Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms today. At this time amounts up to a tenth of an inch
in our northwestern zones, to quarter to half an inch in our
southeastern zones is anticipated. We do not expect this rainfall to
produce much if any rises on rivers streams and reservoirs.
There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...Frugis/HWJIV/OKeefe
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1248 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016
A familiar synoptic pattern is seen in the 19Z water vapor imagery.
With a mean trough still over the west and northern Rockies,
southwesterly flow aloft remains over the central plains. A surface
low was again analyzed over the OK panhandle with a dryline
extending south through west TX. Outflow from morning storms has
muddled up the surface pattern over northeast KS and the better
moisture convergence is appears to be over southwest KS between the
surface low and the outflow boundary over southern KS.
A lot of this forecast is based on expected persistence of the
pattern and previous nights. Think that storms will once again
develop over southwestern KS and congeal into an MCS moving across
eastern KS tonight. The HRRR/ARW/NMM show a bowing MCS developing
this evening and move it across the forecast area by the late
evening. 0-6KM shear remains rather marginal around 30KT so the main
concerns with the storms will be damaging winds, hail and localized
flash flooding. Have likely POPs going tonight, but confidence is
only medium as some of the models still show various tracks to the
MCS. POPs taper down during the morning Wednesday as models move the
storms through earlier in the night. Although if an MCV is slow to
move east, there could be some lingering precip late in the morning.
Lows tonight should be in the lower to mid 60s with rain cooled air
helping to cool temps more so than they would be without precip.
Highs Wednesday are forecast to be in the lower and mid 80s as
models advect warmer air into eastern KS with 850MB temps warming to
around 22C and 700MB temps between 8 and 10C. Because of this,
forecast soundings show an elevated mixed layer capping the boundary
layer through much of the afternoon. So the question becomes whether
there is enough convergence along the dryline to force storms
because large scale forcing again appears to be weak at best. Most
guidance seems to keep the boundary layer capped as they do not
generate much QPF in the afternoon, so have kept some small POPs in
the forecast for Wednesday afternoon on the small chance a storm
develops.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016
Wednesday Night Friday...
Convective chances by early evening will be dependent on what
mesoscale boundaries will be present from any convection earlier in
the day. Otherwise the dryline and front will be located west of the
forecast area. There is not much in the way of upper support,
however the models suggest that there may be a weak wave moving out
of western Kansas into Nebraska Wednesday night. Instability,
moisture and shear will be sufficient for a few severe storms with
hail and wind the main hazards and a low probability for tornadoes.
Thursday may start out dry as models move off an MCS well east by
12Z Thursday. The models have slowed the ejection of the main energy
ejecting out of the western trough, but do eject a lead shortwave
out into the Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. Forecast
soundings show Steepening lapse rates and increasing shear around 30
to 35 kts toward 00Z Friday along with mlcape around 2500 J/kg.
Expect thunderstorms to develop along the front and dryline then
move northeast and east across the CWA during the evening and
overnight hours. Have maintained higher precipitation chances for
Thursday night and Friday as the upper level trough advances out
into the Plains. Forcing will also be aided by left exit region of
the upper jet across central and north central Kansas on Friday. Any
ongoing precipitation will likely leave mesoscale boundaries across
parts of the area by Friday afternoon.
Friday Night through Tuesday...
The active spring pattern will continue through the extended period.
Friday night an upper level trough across the four-corners region
will eject northeastward into the central plains. A strong vort-max
will will eject across the forecast area Friday evening into
Saturday morning, bringing likely chances for thunderstorms across
the entire area. Strong to severe thunderstorms will also be
possible as sufficient CAPE and shear will be in place. The
remainder of the period will consist of southwest flow aloft and
embedded weak upper-level waves. With the plentiful boundary layer
moisture that will be in place, have at least slight chance PoPs
through the remainder of the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
Weakening TSRA complex moving through the terminals. Winds will be
a challenge over the next few hours but should become south to
southeast by 10Z. There continue to be signals of MVFR stratus
into the 18z period and will go along at this point. Too much
uncertainty for any late period TSRA at this point.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Baerg/53
AVIATION...65
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1100 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016
Due to current ongoing storms and severe weather will wait to issue
the morning forecast until severe watch 202 is cancelled.
Southwest flow will persist across the central plains from today
through Thursday night. A surface trough will exist over eastern
Colorado today and tonight. The trough will move into northwest
Kansas Wednesday and Wednesday night and then align itself along the
Colorado/Kansas border Thursday night.
a shortwave is advertised to come through the flow this afternoon
and evening. The surface wind field suggests convergence to support
thunderstorm initiation across the northern fa. There is good
instability and shear to produce severe thunderstorms. Subsidence
moves into the fa Wednesdays morning behind the exiting shortwave.
Even through there is an apparent weak disturbance in the flow
WEDNESDAY afternoon, dynamics and instability are weak so will make
pops nil until late evening when some lift is shown mainly across
the far north fa. Subsidence follows Thursday morning so pops will
be nil. A strong shortwave comes into the area Thursday afternoon
and night. Good dynamics with this feature warrant higher chance
pops.
Max temperatures today through Thursday should range from the upper
70s in eastern Colorado to the lower 80s across northwest Kansas.
Min temperatures tonight should cool to the 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016
Going into Wednesday night...weak surface low out over the Central
Plains ahead of slow moving upper low/trough over the Rockies...will
combine with a boundary over the Kansas/Nebraska border to bring
some light rw/trw activity to mainly northern areas thru the
overnight period. By Thursday as upper trough/low begins to shift
eastward into the plains and exits the area slowly by late Friday.
some mid level ridging will allow for periods of dry conditions
going into the first half of the weekend...do expect increase in
areal coverage of rw/trw late Saturday night on through the
beginning of next week as a couple of shortwave move around the base
of approaching upper low from the Pacific NW/Northern Rockies.
The entire Tri State region will have chances for trw/rw for much of
the extended period. Lowest probability will occur on Saturday as
weak ridging occurs. Best chances for precip will occur Thursday
and Thursday night with the arrival of the enhanced dynamics of
the upper low combining with remnants of surface low/frontal
boundary. SPC currently has a slight risk for severe wx for the
entire cwa w/ focus on eastern/northern areas ahead and north of
low where best moisture/lift will occur...aided in part along the
remnants frontal boundary. Blocking h5 ridge over the eastern
portion of the country will stall the exit of this
system...allowing for wrap-around moisture to keep chances for
trw/rw into Friday before tapering off.
For temps...looking for mainly near to above normal numbers for the
extended period with mainly mid to upper 70s for daytime highs. Some
locales in eastern/southeastern zones could reach the lower 80s. The
slow passage of the upper low Thursday/Friday will provide enough
caa into nw zones to keep upper 60s for some areas. Overnight lowswill
range in the 50s with some upper 40s in ne Colorado.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016
For KGLD...vfr conditions expected through 8z with winds from the
southeast at 10 mph quickly shifting to the southwest. From 9z
through 14z stratus expected with visibilities possibly down to
2sm creating mvfr conditions with winds from the west then
northwest under 10 mph. Cigs improve to vfr by 15z with only a few
clouds at best for the rest of the taf period. Winds expected from
the north 5-10kts around 18z then back all the way around to the
east-southeast for the remainder of the taf period.
For KMCK...vfr conditions expected through 7z with cigs and vis
lowering to mvfr/ifr range through 13z with winds light from the
east. As winds switch around to the northwest cigs improve to vfr
and continue through the rest of the period. Surface winds
generally variable at speeds around 5kts or so.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
615 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016
Water vapor imagery still shows the main upper energy back over
the desert southwest with a weak impulse now lifting over western
CO into NW NM. At the surface, there are a number of
outflow/gravity waves south and southwest of our forecast area.
The more robust one stretches from nw of KOKC to near KGCK with a
more subtle one extending from KEND to near KDDC. A storm have
developed on the boundary over north central OK and is now diving
southeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016
Confidence is high that surface based storms will develop near the
intersection of the dryline and outflow after 4pm which will be
over SW KS/OK panhandle. This activity will slowly migrate east
this evening and may grow upscale as 850-700mb theta-e advection
ramps up. How far east surface based storms make it and where
additional elevated convection form is very uncertain. It`s not
out of the question that the surface based storms die off as they
approach western flank of forecast area as elevated storms develop
near or north of I-70 later. For now, the general theme of higher severe
chances generally west of I-135 looks good for tonight, with low
confidence in how far east the more robust convection makes it.
Weak upper energy will track of the central/northern Rockies for
Wed and will push the better moisture east, generally east of
I-135. The big question for storms Wed afternoon/evening will be
whether there will be enough surface convergence to get storms to
develop as the dryline washes out and becomes much less defined.
While the better surface convergence remains down in OK Wed, will
linger some small pops in case a storm or two can develop Wed
afternoon/early evening. If a storm can develop, it would quickly
become severe with greater than 3,500J/KG of CAPE.
The main vort lobe looks to lift out across the Plains for the
Thu-Fri time period. By 00z Fri this feature will be over southern
CO/northern NM and by 00z Sat will be out over western KS. This
should allow for better areal coverage for storms late Thu
afternoon/evening. At this time thinking that the dryline will
setup just west of our forecast area Thu, generally from Medicine
Lodge to near Hays. Storms that develop in this area would have a
good chance of affecting locations along and west of I-135. With
deep layer shear increasing and high instability remaining, higher
end severe looks possible Thu afternoon/evening with any storms
that develop along the dryline. Storms should become more numerous
Fri for much of the forecast area as the upper wave starts to
directly impact central/eastern KS. While severe storms will be
possible with any storm Fri, upper winds will back ahead of the
upper wave, reducing good directional shear above 850mb. So while
the higher end severe may not be as likely, the number of storms
affecting central and eastern Kansas will be higher Fri.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016
By 12z Sat there is good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF that
the upper wave will be lifting over northeast KS, pushing the
better convective chances northeast of the forecast area. However,
we quickly get back into SW flow aloft, albeit weak. This will
allow the better low level moisture to lift back across the
central Plains. What makes it tough through these extended periods
is the lack of a surface focus or distinct upper wave to focus on.
In addition, upper winds will be considerably weaker than the
current sw flow pattern we are in. So, with plenty of instability
it will not take much to get a storm to develop. Have a slight
lean toward the better storm chances being at night with low level
jet processes helping initiate storms. Confidence is high that
temps will be close to or slightly above seasonal normals through
this extended period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016
A moist southeast surface flow will continue across the area
with MVFR CIGS expected to develop overnight into early
Wednesday morning. Scattered strong to severe convection
over northern Oklahoma and western Kansas may affect some
locations west of the Kansas turnpike late this evening with
potential for scattered strong storms overnight across much
of the area.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 68 87 69 86 / 40 20 10 30
Hutchinson 66 88 67 85 / 40 10 10 30
Newton 67 87 68 85 / 40 20 10 30
ElDorado 67 87 70 85 / 40 20 20 30
Winfield-KWLD 68 87 71 85 / 40 20 10 30
Russell 63 87 59 86 / 60 10 10 40
Great Bend 64 88 60 87 / 60 10 10 30
Salina 64 88 66 88 / 40 20 20 30
McPherson 65 88 67 85 / 40 20 10 30
Coffeyville 68 84 71 85 / 40 30 20 20
Chanute 68 84 71 85 / 40 30 20 20
Iola 67 84 70 85 / 40 30 20 20
Parsons-KPPF 68 84 71 85 / 40 30 20 20
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KED
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
505 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016
Due to current ongoing storms and severe weather will wait to issue
the morning forecast until severe watch 202 is cancelled.
Southwest flow will persist across the central plains from today
through Thursday night. A surface trough will exist over eastern
Colorado today and tonight. The trough will move into northwest
Kansas Wednesday and Wednesday night and then align itself along the
Colorado/Kansas border Thursday night.
a shortwave is advertised to come through the flow this afternoon
and evening. The surface wind field suggests convergence to support
thunderstorm initiation across the northern fa. There is good
instability and shear to produce severe thunderstorms. Subsidence
moves into the fa Wednesdays morning behind the exiting shortwave.
Even through there is an apparent weak disturbance in the flow
WEDNESDAY afternoon, dynamics and instability are weak so will make
pops nil until late evening when some lift is shown mainly across
the far north fa. Subsidence follows Thursday morning so pops will
be nil. A strong shortwave comes into the area Thursday afternoon
and night. Good dynamics with this feature warrant higher chance
pops.
Max temperatures today through Thursday should range from the upper
70s in eastern Colorado to the lower 80s across northwest Kansas.
Min temperatures tonight should cool to the 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016
Going into Wednesday night...weak surface low out over the Central
Plains ahead of slow moving upper low/trough over the Rockies...will
combine with a boundary over the Kansas/Nebraska border to bring
some light rw/trw activity to mainly northern areas thru the
overnight period. By Thursday as upper trough/low begins to shift
eastward into the plains and exits the area slowly by late Friday.
some mid level ridging will allow for periods of dry conditions
going into the first half of the weekend...do expect increase in
areal coverage of rw/trw late Saturday night on through the
beginning of next week as a couple of shortwave move around the base
of approaching upper low from the Pacific NW/Northern Rockies.
The entire Tri State region will have chances for trw/rw for much of
the extended period. Lowest probability will occur on Saturday as
weak ridging occurs. Best chances for precip will occur Thursday
and Thursday night with the arrival of the enhanced dynamics of
the upper low combining with remnants of surface low/frontal
boundary. SPC currently has a slight risk for severe wx for the
entire cwa w/ focus on eastern/northern areas ahead and north of
low where best moisture/lift will occur...aided in part along the
remnants frontal boundary. Blocking h5 ridge over the eastern
portion of the country will stall the exit of this
system...allowing for wrap-around moisture to keep chances for
trw/rw into Friday before tapering off.
For temps...looking for mainly near to above normal numbers for the
extended period with mainly mid to upper 70s for daytime highs. Some
locales in eastern/southeastern zones could reach the lower 80s. The
slow passage of the upper low Thursday/Friday will provide enough
caa into nw zones to keep upper 60s for some areas. Overnight lowswill
range in the 50s with some upper 40s in ne Colorado.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 500 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016
KGLD...currently expecting vfr conditions through the period. Am
concerned about model boundary layer moisture that at present time
is overdone with forecast ceilings. This moisture ramps up early
to mid evening and continues through the early morning hours
before lifting northeast away from the terminal. Have scattered
clouds around 400` as a start and will watch closely. Winds begin
the period from the southeast around 11-12kts with some gusts then
shift to the southwest under 10kts around 8z. Winds continue to
veer around to the west and northwest near 10kts from 9z to 18z
then back to the southwest around 7kts from 19z through the rest
of the taf period.
KMCK...similar to KGLD am concerned about models handling of low
level moisture and possibility that cigs wont be as low as they
suggest. Otherwise am expecting thunderstorms around/over the
terminal from 6z through about 11z. Vfr cigs at taf issuance
expected to decrease to ifr/vlifr range by 6z and continue through
16z. after 17z drier air moves in from the southwest allowing vfr
conditions to return through the rest of the taf period.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1202 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016
Due to current ongoing storms and severe weather will wait to issue
the morning forecast until severe watch 202 is cancelled.
Southwest flow will persist across the central plains from today
through Thursday night. A surface trough will exist over eastern
Colorado today and tonight. The trough will move into northwest
Kansas Wednesday and Wednesday night and then align itself along the
Colorado/Kansas border Thursday night.
a shortwave is advertised to come through the flow this afternoon
and evening. The surface wind field suggests convergence to support
thunderstorm initiation across the northern fa. There is good
instability and shear to produce severe thunderstorms. Subsidence
moves into the fa Wednesdays morning behind the exiting shortwave.
Even through there is an apparent weak disturbance in the flow
WEDNESDAY afternoon, dynamics and instability are weak so will make
pops nil until late evening when some lift is shown mainly across
the far north fa. Subsidence follows Thursday morning so pops will
be nil. A strong shortwave comes into the area Thursday afternoon
and night. Good dynamics with this feature warrant higher chance
pops.
Max temperatures today through Thursday should range from the upper
70s in eastern Colorado to the lower 80s across northwest Kansas.
Min temperatures tonight should cool to the 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016
Heading into the weekend a meandering surface boundary sets up over
the Central Plains out ahead of a upper level trough over the
Rockies. Models show this system shifting eastward of the region
Friday night, before lifting into North Central Nebraska.
Potential for showers and thunderstorms increases over the
holiday weekend as remnants from the prior boundary looks to
remain over the region and another upper level low moving through
the North Central Rockies.
Look for much the same at the beginning of the work week as
another system looks to move through the region.
With a general southwesterly upper flow over the region, look for
near to above normal temperatures through the extended as decent
warm air advection over the area. Daytime highs will range from
the mid 70s thru the mid 80s. Overnight lows will range from the
upper 40s thru the mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1202 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016
MVFR stratocu slowly breaking up and lifting at KGLD. Expecting
marginally VFR conditions to take hold shortly. Afternoon
thunderstorms will develop once again today. Anticipating
development along a remnant outflow boundary over southwest Kansas
with storms moving northeast into northwest Kansas. This area of
storms could impact KGLD but anticipate most activity to remain
southeast. Therefore, only mentioned VCTS for KGLD. Another area
of storms will develop near the Denver Metro, spreading east
through the evening. It is this area of storms that are most
likely to impact KMCK. A late evening arrival seems most probable
from latest suite of guidance.
Late tonight, LLWS may develop as a low level jet strengthens.
Remain a little unsure on the timing and height of the LLWS so for
now did not input LLWS into the TAF. Stratus/fog development is
forecast along a boundary over northeast Colorado. This deserves a
watchful eye depending on how storms impact the boundary layer.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...RRH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1207 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016
Forecast Highlight:
Sever thunderstorm potential increasing for much of South-Central
KS along & W of I-35/I-135 late this afternoon & Evening.
Today & Tonight:
Numerous strong & severe thunderstorms continue to occur across Nrn
KS in pronounced E/W-oriented convergent axis no doubt enhanced by
moisture-rich low-level jet/convective outflow interaction. Still
expect convection to s-l-o-w-l-y wane this morning as low-level jet
weakens. Attention shifts to this afternoon & evening, most notably
South-Central KS along & W of I-35/I-135. A mid-level shortwave is
still expected to strengthen considerably as it lifts ne from Ern
NM across the TX Panhandle this afternoon and reaching SW KS early
this evening. With high octane fuel continuing to stream N across
KS & the approaching shortwave inducing pronounced deep shear, both
speed & directional (more so directional) severe thunderstorms are
scheduled to develop from Ern parts of the TX & OK Panhandles to SW
& SC KS late this afternoon & evening. SPC has assigned an enhanced
risk for severe thunderstorms for these areas which clearly makes
sense. CAPES are extremely high & although the GFS may be getting a
a CAPE adrenaline rush by projecting MLCAPES venturing into 5000
to 6000J/KG country there`s no doubt the airmass will be VERY
unstable. This warrants a "Severe Thunderstorms with Large Hail
and Damaging Wind" assignment to SC KS along & W of I-35/I-135.
There`s also an increasing potential for a few tornadoes for these
areas during these periods. Stay tuned.
Wed-Thu Night:
The afore-mentioned mid-level shortwave will shear as it sprints NE
toward, then across, the Mid-MS Valley Wed Afternoon & Evening, but
a 2nd & stronger mid-upper shortwave is scheduled to surge SE from
the Nrn Rockies. This character will likely induce mid-level
cyclogenesis over AZ & NM Wed Night. As the strong mid-upper wave
pushes ENE toward the Front Range deep-scale ascent will increase
& also find rich moisture with which to interact. As such more
severe thunderstorms are very possible for the latter parts of the
work-week. Wed & Wed Night appear most volatile for SE KS.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016
With mid-range models in better agreement the inherited forecast
has been kept intact.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016
Main Aviation Hazards: Thunderstorm and stratus potential.
Small chances for thunderstorms this afternoon near the
Kansas/Oklahoma border near a west to east oriented convective outflow
boundary. Any of this activity that may develop is expected to
stay south of the ICT and CNU terminals through 00z. Otherwise, a
better chance for scattered severe thunderstorms will be late this
afternoon/evening...with development first occurring in western
Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma. These storms will have an
eastward motion and could reach around the I-135 corridor toward
mid-late evening. Highest probabilities initially will be at the
RSL and GBD terminals where a tempo +TSRA is planned early this
eve, and will use VCTS as far east as SLN and ICT Terminals.
Strong-severe outflow wind gusts and potentially large hail could
accompany this storm activity.
Southeasterly, continued moist flow should result in stratus
development across much of the region late tonight into Wednesday
morning. Low MVFR ceilings appear likely, with some potential for
IFR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 80 68 86 69 / 40 40 10 10
Hutchinson 80 68 87 66 / 40 50 10 10
Newton 79 68 86 68 / 50 40 10 20
ElDorado 79 67 85 69 / 60 30 20 20
Winfield-KWLD 81 68 86 70 / 20 40 10 20
Russell 80 66 87 62 / 60 60 10 10
Great Bend 81 67 88 61 / 40 60 10 10
Salina 80 67 87 67 / 70 50 20 20
McPherson 80 68 86 66 / 50 50 10 10
Coffeyville 80 69 83 72 / 30 30 30 20
Chanute 80 68 82 72 / 50 30 30 30
Iola 80 68 82 72 / 60 30 30 30
Parsons-KPPF 79 68 83 72 / 40 30 30 30
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...JMC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
651 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016
Forecast Highlight:
Sever thunderstorm potential increasing for much of South-Central
KS along & W of I-35/I-135 late this afternoon & Evening.
Today & Tonight:
Numerous strong & severe thunderstorms continue to occur across Nrn
KS in pronounced E/W-oriented convergent axis no doubt enhanced by
moisture-rich low-level jet/convective outflow interaction. Still
expect convection to s-l-o-w-l-y wane this morning as low-level jet
weakens. Attention shifts to this afternoon & evening, most notably
South-Central KS along & W of I-35/I-135. A mid-level shortwave is
still expected to strengthen considerably as it lifts ne from Ern
NM across the TX Panhandle this afternoon and reaching SW KS early
this evening. With high octane fuel continuing to stream N across
KS & the approaching shortwave inducing pronounced deep shear, both
speed & directional (more so directional) severe thunderstorms are
scheduled to develop from Ern parts of the TX & OK Panhandles to SW
& SC KS late this afternoon & evening. SPC has assigned an enhanced
risk for severe thunderstorms for these areas which clearly makes
sense. CAPES are extremely high & although the GFS may be getting a
a CAPE adrenaline rush by projecting MLCAPES venturing into 5000
to 6000J/KG country there`s no doubt the airmass will be VERY
unstable. This warrants a "Severe Thunderstorms with Large Hail
and Damaging Wind" assignment to SC KS along & W of I-35/I-135.
There`s also an increasing potential for a few tornadoes for these
areas during these periods. Stay tuned.
Wed-Thu Night:
The afore-mentioned mid-level shortwave will shear as it sprints NE
toward, then across, the Mid-MS Valley Wed Afternoon & Evening, but
a 2nd & stronger mid-upper shortwave is scheduled to surge SE from
the Nrn Rockies. This character will likely induce mid-level
cyclogenesis over AZ & NM Wed Night. As the strong mid-upper wave
pushes ENE toward the Front Range deep-scale ascent will increase
& also find rich moisture with which to interact. As such more
severe thunderstorms are very possible for the latter parts of the
work-week. Wed & Wed Night appear most volatile for SE KS.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016
With mid-range models in better agreement the inherited forecast
has been kept intact.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016
Expect MVFR CIGS for most locations this morning as low-mid level
moisture remains high. A cluster of storms currently over Central KS
near the KRSL and KSLN tafs will slowly move E-SE during the morning
hours. So will go with a tempo group for the KSLN TAF for this
chance. Also a little further to the south-southeast, an outflow
boundary continues to drop south into South Central KS. This outflow
will shift winds around to the E-NE for the KHUT, and KICT TAFS for
a few hours this morning. As the outflow moves south, lift created
by the outflow may lead to the redevelopment of additional SHRA/TSRA
for the KICT, KHUT and KCNU TAFs. So will keep a VCTS in for this
chance for the morning hours.
Attention will then shift to the late afternoon/evening hours, as a
dryline is expected to be just west of KGBD and KRSL. Severe TSRA is
expected to develop along this boundary just to the west of KGBD and
KRSL by this evening. Could also see some of the TSRA move NE and
possibly reach KHUT as well, so will include the mention of VCTS for
KGBD, KRSL and KHUT for the evening hours. Not as confident in TSRA
but will go ahead and go with a VCTs for KICT as well.
Ketcham
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 82 68 86 69 / 60 60 10 10
Hutchinson 83 68 87 66 / 50 60 10 10
Newton 82 68 86 68 / 60 60 10 20
ElDorado 81 67 85 69 / 60 60 20 20
Winfield-KWLD 81 68 86 70 / 60 60 10 20
Russell 83 66 87 62 / 60 50 10 10
Great Bend 84 67 88 61 / 50 50 10 10
Salina 82 67 87 67 / 60 60 20 20
McPherson 82 68 86 66 / 50 60 10 10
Coffeyville 80 69 83 72 / 60 40 30 20
Chanute 81 68 82 72 / 60 40 30 30
Iola 81 68 82 72 / 60 40 30 30
Parsons-KPPF 81 68 83 72 / 60 40 30 30
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...Ketcham
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
418 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016
...Updated Short Term and Long Term Sections...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016
There is a lot of uncertainty in the mesoscale details of the
forecast today. The big convective cluster that has been nearly
stationary since midnight in northern Kansas still had not
developed enough of a cold pool to organize into a forward
propagating MCS as of 09Z. Most of the short term convective
allowing models suggest that the cluster will begin propagating
southeast during the early morning hours with outflow spreading
back west of Dodge City by late morning. A subtle upper level
trough that appears in WV imagery in central New Mexico should
propagate into western Kansas by early afternoon. A surface
cyclone in southeast Colorado should remain nearly stationary, and
the models suggest that a dryline will mix east into southwest
Kansas and may reach a line from Garden City to Liberal by mid
afternoon. A subsynoptic cyclone likely will exist near the
intersection of the old outflow boundary with the dryline
somewhere near Dodge City late this afternoon. Extremely moist air
will continue to flow into western Kansas, and the mid level warm
pool will keep convection from firing until late afternoon.
Convergence along the old outflow boundary and the dryline with
afternoon heating and some marginal upper level divergence with
the weak upper level trough should be sufficient to initiate
thunderstorms. Although high level flow is not terribly strong,
30-35 knot shear from surface to 6 km should support rotating
updrafts. As such, a few supercells are likely late this afternoon
before the thunderstorms organize upscale into a MCS that will
propagate across southern Kansas during the evening hours. A
tornado is possible where low level shear is maximized near the
intersection of the outflow boundary and the dryline.
The vigorous upper level trough evident on satellite imagery over
California early this morning should eject rapidly northeast as
the next trough rotating around the gyre in the western United
States drops southeast from near 40N/130W into southern California
by Wednesday morning. The trough currently over California should
reach the Dakotas by Wednesday morning, and falling pressures in
the northern Plains will veer the low level flow in western Kansas
Tuesday night and Wednesday. The deep moisture should be scoured
out of western Kansas on Wednesday, and temperatures likely will
warm to near 90 with H8 temperatures in the mid 20C range. The
potential for thunderstorms Wednesday is minimal.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016
An active flow regime will continue with a mean long wave trough
in the western United States and ridging in the eastern part of
the country through early June. Minor waves will continue to
ripple through the southwest flow aloft and provide opportunities
for thunderstorm development nearly every day. The upper level
cyclone that digs into California Wednesday will move into eastern
Colorado by Friday morning. Surface cyclogenesis will occur in
eastern Colorado Thursday afternoon, and low level moisture should
surge back into southwest Kansas by Thursday afternoon. Another
round of thunderstorms is likely Thursday afternoon near and east
of the dryline position and near a weak stationary front across
northern Kansas. A Pacific cold front will move into western
Kansas Friday, and additional thunderstorm development can be
expected under the cold pool with the upper level cyclone.
Saturday probably will be quiet, but another minor wave in the
southwest flow will approach the Central Plains on Sunday. Yet
another minor wave should approach Kansas Monday afternoon.
Temperatures will be above seasonal averages with highs in the
80s and lows in the 50s and lower 60s through the week. There is
little indication that a strong subtropical high will build into
the Plains through at least mid June, although there may be a
brief period of anticyclogenesis in the central part of the
country around 9-11 June. An active flow regime characterized by a
mean trough in the western United States and ridging in the
eastern part of the country appears to be the base state of the
atmosphere for the foreseeable future.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 121 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016
A weak stationary front extending from eastern Nebraska across
northwest Kansas into a surface low in eastern Colorado will move
little today. A cluster of thunderstorms at the nose of the low
level jet in northern Kansas will propagate to the east-southeast
and should be east of HYS by 11Z. Patchy stratus with bases
010-020 will become widespread by 09z and persist through the
early morning hours. Visibilities may be restricted to 3-5SM in
mist around sunrise. The stratus should erode during the morning
hours to sct to bkn030-040 by 18Z. Low level winds generally will
be from the south-southeast at 15-20 kts but will be variable and
gusty near the thunderstorm cluster in northern Kansas.
A dryline will mix east to near DDC this afternoon, and severe
thunderstorms are likely to develop near DDC around 21Z and spread
east into central Kansas during the evening hours. Low level winds
will veer above the surface Tuesday night, and Tuesday night may
be free of stratus.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 61 89 56 / 50 50 10 0
GCK 85 58 89 53 / 10 10 10 0
EHA 88 55 88 53 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 88 56 91 54 / 20 10 0 0
HYS 80 62 88 57 / 50 30 10 10
P28 84 65 91 66 / 40 50 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ruthi
LONG TERM...Ruthi
AVIATION...Ruthi
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
123 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016
...Updated Aviation Section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016
Dependent on the time frame for air mass recovery from yesterday`s
convection across the high plains southward into the panhandle of
Texas, thunderstorms will be possible across central and portions of
southwest Kansas tonight into Tuesday as short range models
indicate a difluent southwest flow aloft prevailing across the
Central Plains. The RAP13 and HRRR initialize well with the
surface low in extreme southwest Kansas and an attendant frontal
boundary extending northeast into north central Kansas and showing
both lifting northward across western Kansas through this evening.
A southeasterly upslope flow will redevelop across central and
much of southwest Kansas as a result, and in turn, draw moisture
back to the north raising surface dewpoints up into the lower and
mid 60s(F) across central and much of southwest Kansas. Heating of
the lower/mid levels will increase this afternoon as the
prevailing lower cloud deck continues to slowly scatter out,
allowing lower/mid level lapse rates to steepen. Depending on how
long this takes, thunderstorms will be possible toward early evening
as the cap weakens with the best chance for convection associated
with the frontal boundary as it lifts north. Short fuse model
soundings show SBCAPE values climbing in excess of 4000 J/KG
across south central and eastern southwest Kansas through early
this evening, increasing severe potential. Based on the
substantially high amount of CAPE, large hail will be the primary
threat with damaging winds also possible. Due to a modest amount
of vertical shear present, an isolated tornado threat closer to
the Oklahoma border does exist.
A few isolated storms may develop across eastern Colorado within
an upslope flow and move into west central Kansas later tonight
as an H5 vort maxima kicks northeast out of the Southern Rockies
into the Western High Plains. However, with less instability
available, the potential for severe storms will be limited with
damaging winds the main threat.
A prevailing low level south to southeasterly flow across western
Kansas tonight will help reinforce a moisture pool across the
area with surface dewpoints remaining in the upper 50s(F) to the
mid 60s(F). Look for lows generally in the 60s(F) toward daybreak
Tuesday with a few upper 50s(F) possible in west central Kansas.
For Tuesday, warm air advection across the high plains will push
H85 temperatures well up into the mid to upper 20s(C) across
southwest and much of central Kansas. Widespread 80s(F) can be
expected for highs Tuesday afternoon with near 90F possible in
extreme southwest Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016
Thunderstorms will be possible across central and portions of
southwest Kansas Tuesday evening as medium range models show
another in a series of H5 vort maxima ejecting out of the
Southern Rockies into the high plains of western Kansas. Although
the flow aloft will remain fairly weak, considerable moisture and
instability will be present to support thunderstorm development
along and ahead of a dryline projected to extend southward
across southwest Kansas off of an advancing surface low out of
eastern Colorado. Significant instability will heighten the
potential for severe storms, particularly across central Kansas.
The focus for precip shifts eastward Wednesday as drier air lifts
northeast into southwest Kansas behind a dryline expected to
push a little eastward across the area.
Prevailing southerlies near the surface will reinforce the
warmer air mass across the high plains Wednesday and Thursday.
Highs mainly up into the 80s(F) can be expected each day with a
few lower 90s(F) possible in some locations. Cooler temperatures
are expected by Friday with a cold front pushing through western
Kansas toward the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 121 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016
A weak stationary front extending from eastern Nebraska across
northwest Kansas into a surface low in eastern Colorado will move
little today. A cluster of thunderstorms at the nose of the low
level jet in northern Kansas will propagate to the east-southeast
and should be east of HYS by 11Z. Patchy stratus with bases
010-020 will become widespread by 09z and persist through the
early morning hours. Visibilities may be restricted to 3-5SM in
mist around sunrise. The stratus should erode during the morning
hours to sct to bkn030-040 by 18Z. Low level winds generally will
be from the south-southeast at 15-20 kts but will be variable and
gusty near the thunderstorm cluster in northern Kansas.
A dryline will mix east to near DDC this afternoon, and severe
thunderstorms are likely to develop near DDC around 21Z and spread
east into central Kansas during the evening hours. Low level winds
will veer above the surface Tuesday night, and Tuesday night may
be free of stratus.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 87 64 89 / 30 20 20 10
GCK 58 87 60 89 / 20 10 10 10
EHA 58 90 57 88 / 10 10 10 0
LBL 62 90 62 91 / 20 10 10 0
HYS 60 84 63 88 / 40 20 20 10
P28 67 86 67 91 / 50 30 30 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Ruthi
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1026 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge will bring very warm weather to most of the
region through Saturday, except for cooler temperatures at times
along the immediate coast. A backdoor cold front will bring cooler
weather to the region sometime on Sunday, but temperatures should
rebound to at or above normal by early next week. A few showers
and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday, and
again this weekend but the vast majority of this time will be dry.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***Summer temperatures push in today across the region***
1030 AM Update...Most of the fog has cleared out across the area
with the exception of one band of fog that is hugging the south
coast of RI and moving eastward towards Buzzards Bay and the Cape.
If it continues on this trajectory without burning off, portions
of Cape Cod along the Cape Cod Canal as well as Martha`s Vineyard
and the Elizabeth Islands will see a period of fog later this
morning into early afternoon. Visibilities have been generally
about a mile with this bank of fog on land, it may be more dense
over the water. Made minor adjustments to the temperatures to ease
them back as they have not jumped up as quickly as forecast.
Otherwise, the previous forecast is on track.
Weak ridging at the surface and aloft will cross the region by
midday through the afternoon with NW winds aloft. Warm core H925
temps will push across the region, up to +19C to +22C by this
afternoon. Once skies become mostly sunny, temps will rise quickly
with excellent low and mid level mixing in place. Expect temps to
top off in the mid-upper 80s with a few spots touching 90.
However, dewpoints falling into the 40s will result in low
humidity levels.
High clouds will start to push in from the NW during the mid and
late afternoon ahead of H5 short wave across far northern New
England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Tonight...
Most of the energy from a weak H5 shortwave trough will remain
across northern New England. NW flow keeps dry conditions across
the region tonight. The mid and upper level clouds will dissipate
overnight as SW winds shift back to W-NW and diminish. It will
remain mild, with temperatures only bottoming out from the mid 50s
well inland to lower-mid 60s across the coastal plain.
Thursday...
A cold front will slowly push S across the region during the day.
Clouds will push in from the W as the front moves in during the
afternoon. Short range models vary in their solutions, with mainly
dry conditions through the day offered by the ECMWF, but the GFS
tends to bring some moisture with a weak H5 shortwave in the W-NW
flow aloft. Have mentioned only slight chance PoPs moving into W
MA/N Central CT during the mid and late afternoon hours.
Have noted marginal instability with this system, plus another
day of warm temperatures, so have mentioned widely scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms.
It will be another warm day, with somewhat higher dewpoints making
it feel a bit more humid. Highs will again be in the mid-upper 80s
away from the immediate coast, with a few spots possibly hitting
90 again.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...
* Friday: Very warm w/highs mid-upper 80s northwest of BOS-PVD but
a bit cooler across southeast MA/RI
* Saturday: Hot and a bit humid w/highs mainly upper 80s to lower
90s away from the immediate south coast
* Sunday: Temps uncertain depending on timing of cold front, warmest
readings likely CT River Valley w/coolest across Eastern MA coast
* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri and again Sat/Sun
but the vast majority of this time will be dry
* At or above normal temperatures likely return early next week
Details...
Thursday night...Shortwave energy and a burst of elevated
instability may result in a few showers/t-storms Thursday night,
mainly northwest of a Boston to Providence line. If any activity is
able to develop, it will be short-lived with the majority of the
night ending up dry. Low temps mainly in the upper 50s to the lower
60s. May see some patchy ground fog develop late in the typically
prone locations.
Friday...Surface winds shift to the south-southwest behind the
warm front as 850T rise to around +14C. Plenty of sunshine should
allow highs to warm into the middle to upper 80s northwest of a
Boston to Providence line. Southeast of this line...a cooling
marine layer may hold highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
Dry weather will dominate on Friday, but enough instability
combined with a pre-frontal trough may allow a few
showers/thunderstorms to develop across W MA/N CT Fri afternoon
and evening. Not sure if this activity gets into our region or
stays to our west, but highest risk will be across northwest MA.
Shear is rather weak so even if we see a few thunderstorms in our
western zones, overall severe weather threat is rather low.
Saturday...A hot and somewhat humid day is on tap to kick off the
Memorial Day Weekend. 850T around +16C, plenty of sunshine, and a
westerly component to the surface winds should allow for high temps
to reach into the upper 80s to the lower 90s away from the immediate
south coast. Dewpoints between 60 and 65 across most of the region
will make it feel a bit humid.
While most of the day will be dry, a few showers and
thunderstorms may develop Saturday afternoon and evening with a
pre-frontal trough and CAPE values between 1000 and 2000 J/KG.
This will be mainly to the northwest of a Boston to Providence
line. Forcing will be rather weak, so areal coverage of any
activity that develops may remain limited. Severe weather threat
also looks rather low at this time with rather weak 0 to 6 km
shear, but too early to rule out a strong thunderstorm or two
given decent instability.
Sunday...Low confidence on high temperatures given a subtle change
in timing of the backdoor cold front will make a big difference in
the exact outcome. We can say that the warmest readings will be
across the lower CT River Valley and coolest along the eastern MA
coast. Good shot though at the CT River Valley seeing high temps
reaching well into the 80s, while the eastern MA coast has
afternoon temps falling into the 60s. A few showers will remain
possible and perhaps even a couple of t-storms across the interior
if enough instability develops during the afternoon.
Monday and Tuesday...Backdoor cold front does not appear as strong
on the latest model runs. It looks to washout across the region
early next week. GFS washes out on Monday while the ECMWF waits
until Tuesday. Probably should see the return to above normal temps
by Tue with rather warm temps aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...High confidence. VFR conditions expected the rest of the
day, except on the Cape and Islands where fog may reduce
visibilities down to MVFR/IFR at times.
Tonight...High confidence. VFR conditions. W-NW winds 10 kt or
less.
Thursday...High confidence. VFR. Light W-NW winds, except sea
breezes possible late morning/afternoon along the coast.
KBOS TAF...Moderate to high confidence. An ESE sea breeze has
developed and is expected to continue into early afternoon.
Southwesterly winds should overcome this by late afternoon.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday night and Friday...Moderate to high confidence. VFR
conditions likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible
in a few brief showers/t-storms mainly across the interior. Also,
some patchy ground fog possible in the typically prone locations
very early Fri AM.
Saturday...Moderate to high confidence. VFR conditions likely
dominate but a brief period of MVFR-IFR cigs/vsbys possible in a
few afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms.
Sunday...Low confidence. MVFR-IFR conditions may develop from east
to west behind a backdoor cold front. A few thunderstorms also
possible Sun afternoon across the interior.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...High confidence. W winds up to 10 kt will back to SW
10-15 kt this afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt on the southern
outer waters. Seas 4 ft or less. Patchy fog mainly along the south
coast will result in reduced visibilities at times.
Tonight...High confidence. Light southwesterly winds become
westerly, gusting up to 20 kt on the southern outer waters this
evening. Seas 4 ft or less.
Thursday...High confidence. Light W winds shifting to S in the
afternoon. Seas remain below 5 ft.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will generally remain below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds through the period. The main concerns are a period of
near-shore southwesterly wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots Saturday
afternoon which will result in some choppy seas for mariners. May
also see some brief easterly wind gusts between 20 and 25 knots on
Sunday behind a backdoor cold front.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Today...Expect temperatures will rise quickly, soaring well into
the 80s to near 90 across most locations except cooler along the
immediate south coast. These temperatures will combine with
dewpoints dropping into the 40s resulting in afternoon RH values down
to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly wind gusts up
to 20 to perhaps briefly 25 mph are anticipated. Given Tuesday`s
rainfall and marginal criteria, will fall short of needing fire
weather headlines. Many locations are close to or already at full
green-up.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ003-004-
006>008.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...Frank/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/EVT
MARINE...Frank/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...Staff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
229 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A few leftover showers may fall across western MA and north
central Conn., as well as south coastal MA and RI through the
early this morning as low pressure slowly moves northeast to the
Gulf of Maine. An upper level high pressure ridge will then bring
very warm to hot weather to most of the region Wednesday through
Saturday, except for cooler temperatures at times on the immediate
coast. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night
into Friday, but a better chance exists Saturday afternoon and
evening ahead of a backdoor cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
145 AM Update...
H5 cutoff low has pushed just E of Cape Cod as seen on latest
water vapor and IR satellite imagery. Winds have diminished to
near calm away from the coast at 05Z obs. Noting patchy dense fog
has started to form across portions of the CT valley into NE CT.
May see more develop over the next few hours across central and
western areas. May also see a few showers develop with the last
of the band crossing out the Berkshires through 08Z-09Z.
Remainder of previous forecast in pretty good shape, but have
updated to bring current.
Previous discussion...
With light winds across the region, along with lowering
temp/dewpoint spreads, will still see patchy fog develop along
with lingering low clouds from around Worcester and Windham
counties eastward through around midnight, but trends continue to
indicate that this should slowly push E during the early morning
hours as the low exits, but will be slowest across E coastal MA.
Partial clearing should begin moving into the CT valley after
midnight as winds back to light NW, then will slowly shift E
overnight. Clouds will linger along the E coast through daybreak.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
*** Summer-like Temperatures Move in Today ***
Today ...
Vertically stacked low just east of Cape Cod at 12z/8am but ejects
seaward quickly with rising heights and northwest flow aloft by
midday. Thus any cloudiness across Eastern MA at sunrise quickly
erodes and/or moves offshore with abundant sunshine for the
afternoon. Warming temps aloft to +14c at 850 mb and +21c at 925 mb
yields surface temps at least 30C/86F. Although with boundary layer
mixing beyond 850 mb highs will make a run at 90 in many locations.
However humidity will be low with dew pts only in the mid to upper
40s. Not as warm along the South Coast including Cape Cod and the
Islands...where winds will bend to the southwest off the cooler
ocean waters.
Wed night ...
Dry, tranquil weather with mid level ridge and associated
anticyclonic flow continuing to build across the region from the
west. Dry airmass in place along with diminishing winds and mostly
clear skies will allow temps to fall into the 50s...except 60-65 in
the urban areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* Well above average temperatures for Thu and Fri with the potential
for a spot thunderstorm
* Hazy, Hot and Humid for Saturday with locations reaching 90+F
* Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
* Back door cold front on Sunday will keep conditions cool into
Monday
OVERVIEW...
Large scale pattern is in agreement with both determinisic and
ensemble guidance. Upper level trough will move eastward towards the
Maritimes as Midwest ridge builds into the Northeast. Anomalous
high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to build this
ridge through Saturday. Anticipate summer-like warmth and humidity
to return to the region as ensembles show both the 700 and 500
heights nearly 1-2 standard deviations above normal. Several waves
will move through the flow keeping a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for Late Thursday and again on
Saturday. Because of the mesoscale differences in the guidance
trended the forecast towards an overall blend. Back door cold front
will swing through by Sunday cooling the area down. However, on
Monday, still some discrepancies with offshore high pressure. The
GFS keeps it closer to the coast keeping temps on Monday cooler
while the EC is weaker and more offshore. Continued with a model
blend for now.
DAILIES...
Thursday into Friday...High Confidence.
Upper level ridge will build into the region on each day. Anticipate
the warm weather to continue into Thursday as 925 mb temps are
generally around 20C. This warm airmass combined with westerly flow
and the warm May sun will help aid in high temps reaching into the
mid to upper 80s with a few 90s near the CT valley. Conditions look
to be cooler along the MA coastline as a sea breeze will develop
from weak winds aloft. A spot shower or thunderstorm may develop in
the afternoon, but most of the region will remain dry.
Weak shortwave will pass through the flow Thursday night. Due to
building heights across the region and weak southwesterly flow,
appears that the better forcing will be north of southern New
England. However, cannot rule out the potential for precip Thursday
night into Friday morning across the north and northwest portion of
the region. Guidance continues to highlight the potential for
elevated convection so continued the mention for thunder in the
forecast for now.
Temperatures on Friday look to be similar as they will be on
Thursday with heights in the mid to upper 80s with a few 90F across
the CT valley. Still a large spread in the guidance on if Boston
will reach 80F as there is question in the sea breeze development.
However 925 mb winds appear to be strong enough to allow for good SW
flow to warm the immediate eastern coastline. This southwest flow
will keep the south coast cooler thanks to onshore flow and the
cooler ocean waters.
Once again a spot shower looks to be possible in the afternoon, but
better forcing and instability appears to remain west of the region.
So another dry weather day is expected.
Saturday...Moderate Confidence
Upper level ridge will strengthen across the the eastern Great Lakes
as warm front lifts northward. A very warm day will be on tap as 925
mb temps will warm to 23-24C. Ensembles continue to show
probabilities that many locations could reach above 90F. This hazy,
hot and humid day does have some caveats. Approaching surface trough
looks to trigger afternoon convection for the region. Some storms
could be strong or severe, but a bit to early to tell.
Sunday into Monday...Moderate Confidence.
Back door cold front will swing through the region late Saturday
night into Sunday. This will cool temperatures down across the
region. The front does look to push and stall across the Hudson.
However, could still see upper 70s or low 80s across the CT river
valley as 925 mb temps are between 18-20C. Otherwise anticipate a
cooler weather day.
Still large spread for surface temps on Monday. GFS and EC have
about a 15 degree difference amongst each other. The GFS is cooler
with highs in the low 70s while the EC is warmer with highs in the
low 80s. Continued with a model blend for now to split the
difference. May see a few sct showers on Monday depending on the
location of the southeast low pressure system and how quickly it
moves northwards towards the region.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 12Z...Moderate confidence, though lower in timing of
improving conditions toward daybreak.
Areas of IFR-LIFR CIGS and mixture of VFR to IFR VSBYS in patchy
fog, lowest across interior E MA and portions of CT valley into NE
CT. Should start to see conditions improve to VFR across CT
valley after 08Z, then slowly progressing E after daybreak. Calm
or light/vrbl winds.
Today...Moderate confidence this morning, then high confidence.
IFR CIGS and areas of MVFR-IFR VSBYS across central-E MA/RI should
improve by mid morning. Otherwise, VFR. W-SW winds 10 kt or less.
Tonight...High confidence. VFR conditions. W-NW winds less than 10
kt.
Thursday...High confidence. VFR. Light W-NW winds, except sea
breezes possible late morning/afternoon along the coast.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. Uncertain on exact timing of
improvement, but should take place by around 10Z.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. otherwise VFR.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.
Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Low confidence. MVFR conditions to start with some
improvements on Sunday as a back door front swings through.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 12Z...High confidence.
Upper level low will slowly move into Massachusetts Bay during
the early morning hours. Light E-NE winds across the eastern
waters will back to N-NW, becoming mainly W of all waters toward
daybreak. Leftover SE swells will linger on the outer waters E
and S of Cape Cod, but should subside below 5 ft by around 08Z-
09Z. Visibility restrictions in patchy fog, locally dense in some
locations, should improve from W-E.
Today...High confidence on all weather parameters.
Low pressure near Cape Cod at sunrise moves east/offshore by
midday with a drying trend and vsby improving to the horizon.
Winds become southwest by midday.
Tonight...High confidence.
Light southwest winds become westerly. Dry weather and vsby
continue.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period. Could see some brief near shore
southwest wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots are possible Friday and
Saturday...which will result in some choppy seas. Otherwise could
see some afternoon convection on Saturday as a back door cold
front swings through.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday...High temperatures soaring well into the 80s to near
90 in most locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values
dropping to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly
wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are anticipated. Given today`s rainfall
and marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the need for
fire weather headlines especially given many locations are near
full green-up.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for RIZ003-004-006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM EDT early
this morning for ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Dunten
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...Dunten/EVT
MARINE...Nocera/Dunten/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...Staff
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
210 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 210 AM EDT...showers have dissipated across all of our region,
and so have many of the clouds.
However, as moisture pooled from the Hudson valley eastward,
patchy dense fog was beginning to form from the Hudson valley
eastward with dewpoints still around 50 or higher, compared to much
lower levels just west, where they were from the upper 30s to mid
40s.
At this time of night, with decoupling, there really is no way for
these dewpoints to advect further east, so we don`t expect much in
them overnight.
We did however, lower some places a couple of degrees. Look for lows
generally 45-50 with light or calm wind.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Good consensus in guidance for sunny to mostly sunny sky over most
of our region Wednesday...but weak upper energy scraping far
northern areas...along with a tightening of the boundary layer
temperature gradient could support some isolated to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms. Winds from the surface through the
boundary layer are expected to be west...and could be a bit gusty
in the afternoon. The mixing should help temperatures reach the
lower to mid 80s in many areas...a few upper 80s mid Hudson Valley
and upper 70s to lower 80s northern areas.
Some mixed signals in guidance as to coverage of clouds and
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and
Friday. Wherever the weak boundary stalls Wednesday night...will
return north Thursday...and could be a diffuse focus for some
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms in northern areas.
Increasing low level moisture and instability could support
diurnal type isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms in other areas of terrain Thursday afternoon and
evening and again Friday afternoon and evening.
There could be some old convective debris that could filter the
sun at times Thursday and Friday...too. Upper level ridging and
low level ridging build east...allowing for deep southwest
flow...warming boundary layer temperatures and increasing low
level humidity. Highs Thursday in the mid to upper 80s with
around 80 to lower 80s in higher terrain. Highs Friday in the mid
to upper 80s...but around 90 southern areas and lower 80s northern
areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast features above normal temperatures for the
holiday weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.
A very active weather pattern across the eastern seaboard as we
monitor the tropics, frontal boundary nearby along with increasing
temperatures and humidity /along with the heat index/. We are well
into the warm sector Friday night as H850 temps surge well into the
mid-teens which should continue into the weekend. However, several
instability factors also climb, although, shear parameters are less
than ideal.
Through Saturday, ridge axis at the surface and especially aloft
builds across the region. As dewpoints climb well into the 60s and
PWATS climbing toward 1.50 inches, it will definitely feel more like
summer. Surface based CAPES too climb toward 2000 J/KG /even higher
with slight modifications of the soundings/ with surface lifted
index values to at or below -5c. So plenty of instability around
but aforementioned shear parameters are generally 15kts or less. For
now, we will leave the chance-scattered PoPs in the grids. Later
into the holiday weekend will be the position of the backdoor front
as the GFS is the most aggressive with taking this front well west
of the region with the ECMWF/GGEM remaining somewhat stationary
across eastern NY. If the later scenario were to verify, the
potential for not only additional convection but heavy rainfall
would be another concern. For now, we will leave in the chance-
scattered PoPs along with partly cloudy-mostly cloudy conditions.
For Memorial Day, confidence is rather low as we monitor the
potential tropical entity along the east coast. Please refer to the
latest tropical outlooks issued by the National Hurricane Center.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
It looks as if we will dealing with quite a bit of IFR flying
conditions through 11Z thanks to residual low level moisture trapped
in the Hudson valley and Berkshires. This despite our local Fog
study program did not forecast any fog in any of the TAFs.
As of 06Z Low IFR was already reported at KGFL and KPSF. While KALB
was still VFR their remarks indicated patches of fog (BCFG) so we
believe they too will have at least temporary times of IFR.
KPOU looks to have some IFR fog although studies have indicated it
is hard to fog at the site.
Any and all fog will be gone before 12Z leaving us to a VFR flying
day as dry air will mix down as a breeze kicks in from the west, 5-
10KTS, gusting to 20KTS by midday at KPSF and KALB. After 12Z clouds
will be few-sct with some cumulus around 5 KFT and a few higher
clouds at times.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
RH values at night tonight and tomorrow night should be in the 70
to 100 percent range. Minimum RH values Wednesday afternoon are
expected to be 30 to 40 percent in southern areas and 40 to 55
percent in northern areas. Minimum RH values on Thursday afternoon
should be 40 to 55 percent.
The surface wind will be light and variable tonight...generally
5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at 10 to 15 mph...with a
few gusts near 20 mph possible in the afternoon. Winds trend to
near calm Wednesday night and then become south at 15 mph or less
Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.
Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms through this evening. At this time additional
rainfall amounts of up to a tenth of an inch in most areas...with
some isolated quarter inch amounts in any thunderstorms in the mid
Hudson Valley...Berkshires and NW CT. We do not expect this
rainfall to produce much if any rises on rivers streams and
reservoirs.
There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM/OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
959 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure departs to the northeast as high pressure builds to
the south on Wednesday. A cold front moves through on Thursday.
High pressure will then dominate through Saturday night as a
series of weak upper level disturbances move across. A cold front
will move through on Sunday. High pressure will build in its wake
across New England Sunday afternoon and night, then pass offshore
Monday, allowing a broad area of low pressure to begin approaching
from the south later Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The forecast is generally on track. persistent showers continue to
track down from new england...so have added chc pops for a few
more hours as a weakening trend is noted on radar as well as in
the hrrr. dry weather should return by midnight with decreasing
clouds overnight. have also added patchy fog to ct coastal areas
and ern long island overnight with light winds and high moisture
content at the sfc. Otherwise...minor adjustments made to hourly
t/td.
The region will be behind a weak surface trough. The upper level
low and associated cold pool aloft shift east of the region. This
will increase subsidence with ridging aloft. The lows were a blend
of 1/3 MET, 1/3 MAV and 1/3 12z GMOS. With lighter winds across
the interior, min temperatures were further lowered by a degree.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For Wednesday, the surface trough will be just east of the
region. This will allow for westerly flow to continue.
Aloft...ridging continues with high pressure establishing itself
southwest of the region. A very warm day is expected with highs
around 15 degrees above normal on average...cooler at the
immediate eastern shorelines with partial sea breeze influences.
Overall though less marine influence with the more westerly flow.
For Wednesday Night, aloft there will be continued ridging. At the
surface, the pressure gradient will become weak with high pressure
becoming weaker and translating farther south into the open
Atlantic. A parent low moves into the Canadian Maritimes but will
be filling in with increasing central pressure...essentially
weakening. The associated cold front moves through by early
Thursday but will be weakening as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summerlike warmth will continue through the first half of the
weekend as longwave upper ridging moves across. Shortwave
disturbances will however be able to move through the longwave ridge
and bring chances for late day convection mainly from NYC north/west
both Friday and Saturday. GFS seems too quick to do so on Thursday
as well, and think any convection that day will be isolated in nature
and confined to well NW of NYC.
High temperatures both Thu/Fri will be well into the 80s in most
places, and some isolated lower 90s are not out of the question somewhere
in urban NE NJ, in the valleys of Orange County, or the interior lower
CT river valley. Lows will range mostly from the mid 50s to the
mid 60s.
The ridge then weakens across New England in response to a sharp
northern stream disturbance moving across eastern Canada, pushing
a back door cold front through on Sunday as a surface high builds
across New England. Forecast details become less certain from
Sunday onward, and will be dependent on how far south the front
sinks. Forecast temperatures could be at least several degrees
cooler and chances for rain lower if the front does push farther
south. Leaning more toward the ECMWF idea of more of a glancing
blow from this cooler air mass for now.
As we go into Monday night and Tuesday, we should start dealing
with influx of Atlantic moisture well north of a subtropical or
tropical weather system now just beginning to organize near and
northeast of the Bahamas, and forecast by global models to head
toward the Southeast coast.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure departs to the northeast as high pressure builds to the
south overnight and Wednesday.
Mid and high clouds give way to clear skies overnight and through
the day Wednesday. However, lingering stratus will take a little
longer to scour out for eastern terminals such as KGON. In addition,
patchy fog will likely develop after midnight for a few outlying
terminals. MVFR or IFR vsbys are possible.
After 12z, any fog lifts.
Winds will be light overnight. West winds 5 to 10 kts in the morning
Wednesday will increase to 9 to 13 kts in the afternoon. A few gusts
are possible in the 15 to 20 kt range.
Winds may back around to the s/sw at KJFK, and CT terminals in the
afternoon with seabreeze influence.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Thursday through Sunday...
.Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Mainly VFR but sub-VFR
possible in showers/evening thunderstorms.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR in showers possible NW of NYC.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday Night, allowing for forecast winds and seas to stay
below SCA criteria.
The only hazard across the forecast waters, mainly the western
forecast waters, will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into early this evening with potential for gusty winds,
heavy rain and small hail. Otherwise no hazardous conditions are
expected.
Minimal SCA conditions mainly in the form of higher ocean seas
may be possible Sunday afternoon and night as easterly flow
increases following a back door cold frontal passage.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
light pcpn amounts (less than 1/10 inch) in any remaining showers this
eve.
Local minor flood impacts from heavier showers/tstms are possible
both late day Friday and Saturday, possibly still well inland well
N/W of NYC on Sunday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
812 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 800 PM EDT...Weak deformation axis association with
scattered to broken band of showers just east of the Hudson River
should continue into the evening hours. The upper low in the
vicinity of Providence, RI is beginning to show signs of tracking
ENE per the latest H2O loop analysis. With this movement we should
see a diminishing trend in the showers which too is suggested by
the HRRR. So main update was to the sky coverage, PoPs/WX, removed
the mention of thunder and expanded the fog a little further west
to include the Hudson River Valley overnight as skies should clear
overnight under diminishing winds. Question will be just how much
fog impact will occur as dewpoints upstream were between 30-40F
compared to mid 50s across eastern NY. We will monitor closely.
Prev disc...Upper low departing northeast slowly but steadily.
Very narrow band of rain in eastern NY with some isolated
thunderstorms from the Berkshires through NW CT and the mid Hudson
Valley. Rain and isolated thunderstorms will build east and
dissipate through the evening...and clearing will take place
through the night.
Quite a bit of clearing outside of the moisture field of the upper
low...so by daybreak most areas should be clear to mostly clear.
There could be some patchy fog as low level winds should trend to
calm and areas with wet ground could support some patchy fog but
with dryer surface dewpoints advecting in...it could minimize
chances for fog. Only including patchy fog for areas east of the
Hudson Valley into western New England where most of the rain has
fallen. Lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Good consensus in guidance for sunny to mostly sunny sky over most
of our region Wednesday...but weak upper energy scraping far
northern areas...along with a tightening of the boundary layer
temperature gradient could support some isolated to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms. Winds from the surface through the
boundary layer are expected to be west...and could be a bit gusty
in the afternoon. The mixing should help temperatures reach the
lower to mid 80s in many areas...a few upper 80s mid Hudson Valley
and upper 70s to lower 80s northern areas.
Some mixed signals in guidance as to coverage of clouds and
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and
Friday. Wherever the weak boundary stalls Wednesday night...will
return north Thursday...and could be a diffuse focus for some
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms in northern areas.
Increasing low level moisture and instability could support
diurnal type isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms in other areas of terrain Thursday afternoon and
evening and again Friday afternoon and evening.
There could be some old convective debris that could filter the
sun at times Thursday and Friday...too. Upper level ridging and
low level ridging build east...allowing for deep southwest
flow...warming boundary layer temperatures and increasing low
level humidity. Highs Thursday in the mid to upper 80s with
around 80 to lower 80s in higher terrain. Highs Friday in the mid
to upper 80s...but around 90 southern areas and lower 80s northern
areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast features above normal temperatures for the
holiday weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.
A very active weather pattern across the eastern seaboard as we
monitor the tropics, frontal boundary nearby along with increasing
temperatures and humidity /along with the heat index/. We are well
into the warm sector Friday night as H850 temps surge well into the
mid-teens which should continue into the weekend. However, several
instability factors also climb, although, shear parameters are less
than ideal.
Through Saturday, ridge axis at the surface and especially aloft
builds across the region. As dewpoints climb well into the 60s and
PWATS climbing toward 1.50 inches, it will definitely feel more like
summer. Surface based CAPES too climb toward 2000 J/KG /even higher
with slight modifications of the soundings/ with surface lifted
index values to at or below -5c. So plenty of instability around
but aforementioned shear parameters are generally 15kts or less. For
now, we will leave the chance-scattered PoPs in the grids. Later
into the holiday weekend will be the position of the backdoor front
as the GFS is the most aggressive with taking this front well west
of the region with the ECMWF/GGEM remaining somewhat stationary
across eastern NY. If the later scenario were to verify, the
potential for not only additional convection but heavy rainfall
would be another concern. For now, we will leave in the chance-
scattered PoPs along with partly cloudy-mostly cloudy conditions.
For Memorial Day, confidence is rather low as we monitor the
potential tropical entity along the east coast. Please refer to the
latest tropical outlooks issued by the National Hurricane Center.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers continue to impact the Hudson River Valley and points east
which is mainly where our TAFs are located. Included a VCSH or a
TEMPO group for the next few hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions
through the evening hours.
The question for tonight will be how much BR/FG form. All
terminals will clear out overnight. Winds will be light but
dewpoints upstream are about 10-15 degrees cooler than those
observed across eastern NY and western NE. At this time, the best
IFR chances for FG are at KPSF/KGFL where showers and trapped
moisture near the inversion. Have also included IFR conditions at
KGFL in BR. At KALB and KPOU...MVFR in BR forecast.
After BR/FG clears /by 12Z-13Z/ VFR conditions will prevail all
terminals for Wednesday.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
RH values at night tonight and tomorrow night should be in the 70
to 100 percent range. Minimum RH values Wednesday afternoon are
expected to be 30 to 40 percent in southern areas and 40 to 55
percent in northern areas. Minimum RH values on Thursday afternoon
should be 40 to 55 percent.
The surface wind will be light and variable tonight...generally
5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at 10 to 15 mph...with a
few gusts near 20 mph possible in the afternoon. Winds trend to
near calm Wednesday night and then become south at 15 mph or less
Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.
Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms through this evening. At this time additional
rainfall amounts of up to a tenth of an inch in most areas...with
some isolated quarter inch amounts in any thunderstorms in the mid
Hudson Valley...Berkshires and NW CT. We do not expect this
rainfall to produce much if any rises on rivers streams and
reservoirs.
There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
www.weather.gov/albany
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
737 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks northeast through tonight,
moving into the Gulf of Maine. An associated weak surface trough
will move east of the region tonight. High pressure builds in
from the southwest briefly for late tonight and Wednesday. This
weakens and moves farther offshore Wednesday Night as a weakening
cold front moves through by early Thursday. High pressure will
dominate through Saturday night as a series of weak upper level
disturbances move across. A back door cold front will move through
on Sunday. High pressure will build in its wake across New England
Sunday afternoon and night, then pass offshore Monday, allowing a
broad area of low pressure to begin approaching from the south
later Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The forecast is generally on track. Made some adjustments to pops
next couple of hours based on latest radar trends. Showers
continue to weaken this eve and dry weather should return by
midnight. Otherwise...minor adjustments made to hourly t/td and
winds.
The region will be behind a weak surface trough. The upper level
low and associated cold pool aloft shift east of the region. This
will increase subsidence with ridging aloft. The lows were a blend
of 1/3 MET, 1/3 MAV and 1/3 12z GMOS. 850mb temperatures increase
through the night. A light westerly flow is conveyed by the models
which will help mix down some relatively warmer air tonight
despite the decrease in clouds, thereby mitigating radiational
cooling. With lighter winds across the interior, min temperatures
were further lowered by a degree. Also with lighter winds across
the interior and residual low level moisture...there could be some
patchy fog late into early Wednesday Morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For Wednesday, the surface trough will be just east of the
region. This will allow for westerly flow to continue.
Aloft...ridging continues with high pressure establishing itself
southwest of the region. A very warm day is expected with highs
around 15 degrees above normal on average...cooler at the
immediate eastern shorelines with partial sea breeze influences.
Overall though less marine influence with the more westerly flow.
For Wednesday Night, aloft there will be continued ridging. At the
surface, the pressure gradient will become weak with high pressure
becoming weaker and translating farther south into the open
Atlantic. A parent low moves into the Canadian Maritimes but will
be filling in with increasing central pressure...essentially
weakening. The associated cold front moves through by early
Thursday but will be weakening as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summerlike warmth will continue through the first half of the
weekend as longwave upper ridging moves across. Shortwave
disturbances will however be able to move through the longwave ridge
and bring chances for late day convection mainly from NYC north/west
both Friday and Saturday. GFS seems too quick to do so on Thursday
as well, and think any convection that day will be isolated in nature
and confined to well NW of NYC.
High temperatures both Thu/Fri will be well into the 80s in most
places, and some isolated lower 90s are not out of the question somewhere
in urban NE NJ, in the valleys of Orange County, or the interior lower
CT river valley. Lows will range mostly from the mid 50s to the
mid 60s.
The ridge then weakens across New England in response to a sharp
northern stream disturbance moving across eastern Canada, pushing
a back door cold front through on Sunday as a surface high builds
across New England. Forecast details become less certain from
Sunday onward, and will be dependent on how far south the front
sinks. Forecast temperatures could be at least several degrees
cooler and chances for rain lower if the front does push farther
south. Leaning more toward the ECMWF idea of more of a glancing
blow from this cooler air mass for now.
As we go into Monday night and Tuesday, we should start dealing
with influx of Atlantic moisture well north of a subtropical or
tropical weather system now just beginning to organize near and
northeast of the Bahamas, and forecast by global models to head
toward the Southeast coast.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure departs to the northeast as high pressure builds to the
south tonight and Wednesday.
Mid and high clouds give way to clear skies overnight and through
the day Wednesday. However, lingering stratus will take a little
longer to scour out for eastern terminals such as KGON. In addition,
patchy fog will likely develop after midnight for a few outlying
terminals. MVFR or IFR vsbys are possible.
After 12z, any fog lifts.
Winds will be light tonight. West winds 5 to 10 kts in the morning
Wednesday will increase to 9 to 13 kts in the afternoon. A few gusts
are possible in the 15 to 20 kt range.
Winds may back around to the s/sw at KJFK, and CT terminals in the
afternoon with seabreeze influence.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. A late
day seabreeze is expected Wednesday.
KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. West
winds will increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. West
winds will increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. West
winds will increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KHPN TAF Comments: Patchy fog is possible overnight. West winds will
increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. A late
day seabreeze may approach the airport Wednesday, but do not
expect the seabreeze to move through at this time.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Thursday through Sunday...
.Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Mainly VFR but sub-VFR
possible in showers/evening thunderstorms.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR in showers possible NW of NYC.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday Night, allowing for forecast winds and seas to stay
below SCA criteria.
The only hazard across the forecast waters, mainly the western
forecast waters, will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into early this evening with potential for gusty winds,
heavy rain and small hail. Otherwise no hazardous conditions are
expected.
Minimal SCA conditions mainly in the form of higher ocean seas
may be possible Sunday afternoon and night as easterly flow
increases following a back door cold frontal passage.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of less than 1/4 inch are expected into early
this evening. Locally higher amounts will be possible in
thunderstorms.
Local minor flood impacts from heavier showers/tstms are possible
both late day Friday and Saturday, possibly still well inland well
N/W of NYC on Sunday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
703 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will continue across portions of Southern RI
and southeast MA early this evening as low pressure slowly moves
across southeastern New England. An upper level high pressure
ridge will then bring very warm to hot weather to most of the
region Wednesday through Saturday, except for cooler temperatures
at times on the immediate coast. A few showers and thunderstorms
are possible Thursday night into Friday, but a better chance
exists Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of a backdoor cold
front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
700 PM Update...
Overall forecast is on track. Removed the thunder mention for this
evening as convection has remained just west of southern New
England. Also increased precip trends across RI and southeast MA
as area of showers continues to develop and spin as the upper
level low begins to slowly shift eastward. Otherwise breaks of sun
across western MA as allowed for temps to warm in to the upper 60s
late this afternoon. Onshore flow across eastern MA will continue
until the low shifts eastward creating more of a northerly flow.
Fog and drizzle will remain over the next several hours.
May need to watch for radiational fog development tonight across
the low lying areas as lingering low level moisture combined with
cooling temperatures will create a low temp/dewpoint spread. Dense
fog is not expected at this time.
Previous Discussion...
An area of showers may develop over Southern-Southeastern RI into
Southeast MA as plume of deeper moisture pivots northeast off the
ocean into that area. This is supported by multi model K indices
and latest trends seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Already
seeing the first signs of this with light showers developing over
Marthas Vineyard and Elizabeth Islands. However these showers
should be weak/low top with not a lot of impact. Thus not a
washout expected this evening.
Otherwise drying trend second half of the night as vertically
stacked low moves offshore by sunrise.
Temps seasonably cool tonight with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
*** Summer-like Temperatures Arrive Wednesday ***
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ...
Vertically stacked low just east of Cape Cod at 12z/8am but ejects
seaward quickly with rising heights and northwest flow aloft by
midday. Thus any cloudiness across Eastern MA at sunrise quickly
erodes and/or moves offshore with abundant sunshine for the
afternoon. Warming temps aloft to +14c at 850 mb and +21c at 925 mb
yields surface temps at least 30C/86F. Although with boundary layer
mixing beyond 850 mb highs will make a run at 90 in many locations.
However humidity will be low with dew pts only in the mid to upper
40s. Not as warm along the South Coast including Cape Cod and the
Islands...where winds will bend to the southwest off the cooler
ocean waters.
Wed night ...
Dry, tranquil weather with mid level ridge and associated
anticyclonic flow continuing to build across the region from the
west. Dry airmass in place along with diminishing winds and mostly
clear skies will allow temps to fall into the 50s...except 60-65 in
the urban areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* Well above average temperatures for Thu and Fri with the potential
for a spot thunderstorm
* Hazy, Hot and Humid for Saturday with locations reaching 90+F
* Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
* Back door cold front on Sunday will keep conditions cool into
Monday
OVERVIEW...
Large scale pattern is in agreement with both determinisic and
ensemble guidance. Upper level trough will move eastward towards the
Maritimes as Midwest ridge builds into the Northeast. Anomalous
high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to build this
ridge through Saturday. Anticipate summer-like warmth and humidity
to return to the region as ensembles show both the 700 and 500
heights nearly 1-2 standard deviations above normal. Several waves
will move through the flow keeping a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for Late Thursday and again on
Saturday. Because of the mesoscale differences in the guidance
trended the forecast towards an overall blend. Back door cold front
will swing through by Sunday cooling the area down. However, on
Monday, still some discrepancies with offshore high pressure. The
GFS keeps it closer to the coast keeping temps on Monday cooler
while the EC is weaker and more offshore. Continued with a model
blend for now.
DAILIES...
Thursday into Friday...High Confidence.
Upper level ridge will build into the region on each day. Anticipate
the warm weather to continue into Thursday as 925 mb temps are
generally around 20C. This warm airmass combined with westerly flow
and the warm May sun will help aid in high temps reaching into the
mid to upper 80s with a few 90s near the CT valley. Conditions look
to be cooler along the MA coastline as a sea breeze will develop
from weak winds aloft. A spot shower or thunderstorm may develop in
the afternoon, but most of the region will remain dry.
Weak shortwave will pass through the flow Thursday night. Due to
building heights across the region and weak southwesterly flow,
appears that the better forcing will be north of southern New
England. However, cannot rule out the potential for precip Thursday
night into Friday morning across the north and northwest portion of
the region. Guidance continues to highlight the potential for
elevated convection so continued the mention for thunder in the
forecast for now.
Temperatures on Friday look to be similar as they will be on
Thursday with heights in the mid to upper 80s with a few 90F across
the CT valley. Still a large spread in the guidance on if Boston
will reach 80F as there is question in the sea breeze development.
However 925 mb winds appear to be strong enough to allow for good SW
flow to warm the immediate eastern coastline. This southwest flow
will keep the south coast cooler thanks to onshore flow and the
cooler ocean waters.
Once again a spot shower looks to be possible in the afternoon, but
better forcing and instability appears to remain west of the region.
So another dry weather day is expected.
Saturday...Moderate Confidence
Upper level ridge will strengthen across the the eastern Great Lakes
as warm front lifts northward. A very warm day will be on tap as 925
mb temps will warm to 23-24C. Ensembles continue to show
probabilities that many locations could reach above 90F. This hazy,
hot and humid day does have some caveats. Approaching surface trough
looks to trigger afternoon convection for the region. Some storms
could be strong or severe, but a bit to early to tell.
Sunday into Monday...Moderate Confidence.
Back door cold front will swing through the region late Saturday
night into Sunday. This will cool temperatures down across the
region. The front does look to push and stall across the Hudson.
However, could still see upper 70s or low 80s across the CT river
valley as 925 mb temps are between 18-20C. Otherwise anticipate a
cooler weather day.
Still large spread for surface temps on Monday. GFS and EC have
about a 15 degree difference amongst each other. The GFS is cooler
with highs in the low 70s while the EC is warmer with highs in the
low 80s. Continued with a model blend for now to split the
difference. May see a few sct showers on Monday depending on the
location of the southeast low pressure system and how quickly it
moves northwards towards the region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight ... Moderate confidence with uncertainty centered around
except timing of improving conditions overnight.
Isolated lighter showers east of the Worcester Hills tonight.
Mainly MVFR all terminals except Coastal MA which will see periods
of IFR. VFR across the CT valley. Cigs and vsby improve from west
to east after 06z.
Wed ... high confidence.
Any leftover MVFR cigs at sunrise will be across Eastern MA but
quickly lifting to VFR by 15z or sooner. Dry weather and west
winds except southwest along the coast.
Wed night ... high confidence.
VFR/DRY and light sw winds becoming west.
KBOS TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 06z.
KBDL TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 03z-06z.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday...High confidence. VFR.
Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.
Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Low confidence. MVFR conditions to start with some
improvements on Sunday as a back door front swings through.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
4 pm update ...
Tonight ... high confidence except uncertainty on areal coverage of
showers and exact timing.
Vertically stacked low over the RI waters will slowly drift to Cape
Cod by morning. Few light rain showers will accompany this low along
with patchy fog. Leftover southeast swell of 3-6 ft continue across
the Southeast MA ocean waters.
Wed ... high confidence on all weather parameters.
Low pressure near Cape Cod at sunrise moves east/offshore by midday
with a drying trend and vsby improving to the horizon. Winds become
southwest by midday.
Wed night ... high confidence.
Light southwest winds become westerly. Dry weather and vsby
continue.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period. Could see some brief near shore
southwest wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots are possible Friday and
Saturday...which will result in some choppy seas. Otherwise could
see some afternoon convection on Saturday as a back door cold
front swings through.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ... High temperatures soaring well into the 80s to near
90 in most locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values
dropping to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly
wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are anticipated. Given this morning`s
rainfall and marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the
need for fire weather headlines especially given many locations
are near full green-up.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ003-
004-006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Dunten
NEAR TERM...Nocera/Dunten
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...Nocera/Dunten
MARINE...Nocera/Dunten
FIRE WEATHER...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
411 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms over
Western portions of MA and CT will continue into early this
evening. Scattered showers may also develop across portions of
Southern RI and southeast MA early this evening as low pressure
slowly moves across southeastern New England. An upper level high
pressure ridge will then bring very warm to hot weather to most of
the region Wednesday through Saturday, except for cooler
temperatures at times on the immediate coast. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday, but a
better chance exists Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of a
backdoor cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
400 PM Update ...
Vertically stacked low over the region with -19c air at 500 mb. This
cold air aloft combined with cyclonic flow is resulting in
scattered showers and embedded thunder. The convection is focused
on the western side of the low where SPC mesoanalysis indicates some
baroclinicity at 850 mb and 925 mb along with some breaks of
sunshine yielding 250-500 j/kg of SB cape per mesoanalysis. This
will continue to be the theme thru sunset with convection focused
across this region.
A second area of showers may develop over Southern-Southeastern RI
into Southeast MA as plume of deeper moisture pivots northeast off
the ocean into that area. This is supported by multi model K indices
and latest trends seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Already
seeing the first signs of this with light showers developing over
Marthas Vineyard and Elizabeth Islands. However these showers should
be weak/low top with not a lot of impact. Thus not a washout
expected this evening.
Otherwise drying trend second half of the night as vertically
stacked low moves offshore by sunrise.
Temps seasonably cool tonight with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
*** Summer-like Temperatures Arrive Wednesday ***
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ...
Vertically stacked low just east of Cape Cod at 12z/8am but ejects
seaward quickly with rising heights and northwest flow aloft by
midday. Thus any cloudiness across Eastern MA at sunrise quickly
erodes and/or moves offshore with abundant sunshine for the
afternoon. Warming temps aloft to +14c at 850 mb and +21c at 925 mb
yields surface temps at least 30C/86F. Although with boundary layer
mixing beyond 850 mb highs will make a run at 90 in many locations.
However humidity will be low with dew pts only in the mid to upper
40s. Not as warm along the South Coast including Cape Cod and the
Islands...where winds will bend to the southwest off the cooler
ocean waters.
Wed night ...
Dry, tranquil weather with mid level ridge and associated
anticyclonic flow continuing to build across the region from the
west. Dry airmass in place along with diminishing winds and mostly
clear skies will allow temps to fall into the 50s...except 60-65 in
the urban areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...
* Very warm Wed/Thu/Fri with highs well up into the 80s except
cooler immediate coast at times
* Hot Saturday afternoon w/highs mainly upper 80s to the lower 90s
* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri but best chance Sat
afternoon/evening ahead of cold front
* Turning much cooler Sun and especially Mon along the coast
Details...
Wednesday night...Other than a low risk for a spot shower/t-storm
across the interior during the evening dry weather is expected
behind a weak cold front. Low temps will only fall back into the 50s
in most locations with 60 to 65 in some of the urban centers. A
touch of patchy fog may develop in the typically prone locations
toward daybreak.
Thursday...Upper level ridging across the Southeast U.S. continues
to nose into southern New England. This will result in plenty of
sunshine and with warm mid level temps, highs again should reach
well into the 80s in most locations. However, gradient will be
weaker allowing for sea breezes to develop on the immediate Eastern
MA coast including Boston by early afternoon. High temps will still
likely reach well up into the 70s to near 80 in this region before
sea breezes develop and temps fall a bit. Should remain dry given
lack of forcing and upper level ridging nosing into this region.
Thursday night and Friday...A shortwave will lift northeast into
northern New England Thu night/Fri. While the best forcing will to
our north, a few showers/t-storms are possible with the best chance
across western and northern MA. Certainly not expecting a washout
though and the majority of the Thu night/Fri will be dry.
Still looks like a warm afternoon with temps into the 80s, but it
may be cooler across Northeast MA depending on location of backdoor
cold front.
Saturday...A hot day with westerly flow and 850T near 16c. This
should yield highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations.
Dewpoints into the 60s will make it feel somewhat muggy.
Pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front may trigger
scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly Saturday afternoon and
evening.
Sunday and Monday...High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will
build south into New England. So despite rather high height fields,
northeast low level flow will result in much cooler temps Sun and
especially Mon particularly along the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Some improvement in vsbys observed over past 1 to 2 hours but
cigs slow to rise in onshore flow across much of the area. Believe
will begin to rise into the VFR range across the CT River Valley
by mid afternoon. Rest of the area should see very slow
improvement into at least low MVFR cig range, although there could
be a few holdouts below one thousand feet in SE coastal areas.
Scattered showers and even isolated thunderstorm or two could
develop late this afternoon/evening over portions of RI and SE MA.
There could also be scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms that
develop during the late afternoon near the Berkshire Crest.
Tonight ... Moderate confidence with uncertainty centered around
except timing of improving conditions overnight.
Showers with isolated thunder focused across Western portions of
MA and CT. Isolated lighter showers elsewhere. Mainly MVFR all
terminals except Coastal MA. Showers dissipate with sunset and
cigs and vsby improve after 06z.
Wed ... high confidence.
Any leftover MVFR cigs at sunrise will be across Eastern MA but
quickly lifting to VFR by 15z or sooner. Dry weather and west
winds except southwest along the coast.
Wed night ... high confidence.
VFR/DRY and light sw winds becoming west.
KBOS TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 06z.
KBDL TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 03z-06z. Showers
should stay west of BDL airspace but will be close and need to
watch early this evening.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday...High confidence. VFR conditions other than a few hours
of patchy ground fog possible toward daybreak Thu in the typically
prone locations.
Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.
Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
4 pm update ...
Tonight ... high confidence except uncertainty on areal coverage of
showers and exact timing.
Vertically stacked low over the RI waters will slowly drift to Cape
Cod by morning. Few light rain showers will accompany this low along
with patchy fog. Leftover southeast swell of 3-6 ft continue across
the Southeast MA ocean waters.
Wed ... high confidence on all weather parameters.
Low pressure near Cape Cod at sunrise moves east/offshore by midday
with a drying trend and vsby improving to the horizon. Winds become
southwest by midday.
Wed night ... high confidence.
Light southwest winds become westerly. Dry weather and vsby
continue.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period with the exception being Wednesday
night. Some brief near shore southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25
knots are likely Wed afternoon...which will result in some choppy
seas. In addition, long southwest fetch may bring a period of 5
foot seas across our southern waters Wednesday night which may
require headlines.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ... High temperatures soaring well into the 80s to near
90 in most locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values
dropping to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly
wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are anticipated. Given this morning`s
rainfall and marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the
need for fire weather headlines especially given many locations
are near full green-up.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ003-
004-006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera
NEAR TERM...Nocera
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/Nocera
MARINE...Frank/Nocera
FIRE WEATHER...Nocera
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
248 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks northeast through tonight,
moving into the Gulf of Maine. An associated weak surface trough
will move east of the region tonight. High pressure builds in
from the southwest briefly for late tonight and Wednesday. This
weakens and moves farther offshore Wednesday Night as a weakening
cold front moves through by early Thursday. This lifts north as a
warm front later in the day Thursday. High pressure remains
situated over the western Atlantic through the first half of the
weekend. A backdoor cold front moves through on late Saturday
night into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Higher vorticity advection associated with residual cold pool
aloft with lingering upper level low combined with increased
daytime heating has led to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Some gusty winds and small hail as well as heavy rain are possible
for brief periods of time with these thunderstorms. Most of the
convection has been confined to Southwest Connecticut and Western
Long Island Sound. With CAPE values forecast of a few hundred J/KG
more showers and thunderstorms will be possible with coverage
being scattered. This will decrease with loss of diurnal heating
and as cold pool aloft shift farther east this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight, the region will be behind a weak surface trough. The
upper level low and associated cold pool aloft shift east of the
region. This will increase subsidence with ridging aloft. The
lows were a blend of 1/3 MET, 1/3 MAV and 1/3 12z GMOS. 850mb
temperatures increase through the night. A light westerly flow is
conveyed by the models which will help mix down some relatively
warmer air tonight despite the decrease in clouds, thereby
mitigating radiational cooling. With lighter winds across the
interior, min temperatures were further lowered by a degree.
For Wednesday, the surface trough will be just east of the region.
This will allow for westerly flow to continue. Aloft...ridging
continues with high pressure establishing itself southwest of the
region. A very warm day is expected with highs around 15 degrees
above normal on average...cooler at the immediate eastern
shorelines with partial sea breeze influences. Overall though less
marine influence with the more westerly flow.
For Wednesday Night, aloft there will be continued ridging. At the
surface, the pressure gradient will become weak with high pressure
becoming weaker and translating farther south into the open
Atlantic. A parent low moves into the Canadian Maritimes but will
be filling in with increasing central pressure...essentially
weakening. The associated cold front moves through by early
Thursday but will be weakening as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak area of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will push a
cold front through the area Wednesday night. This front will then
head quickly back north as a warm front, moving through Thursday
afternoon.
Thereafter, there will be a prolonged period of southerly flow as
surface high pressure settles over the Western Atlantic. At the same
time, ridging aloft will mean rising heights and therefore, warming
temperatures, mainly for areas away from the coast. Closer to the
coast, flow off the cooler ocean waters will keep these areas a few
degrees cooler than inland. With a southerly flow, dewpoints will
also be on the rise. By the weekend, dewpoints could be in the lower
60s, making it slightly uncomfortable for some.
The 00Z ECMWF and the 00Z GFS are in better agreement on the passage
of a back door cold front late Saturday night into Sunday (quicker
than previously forecast). Thereafter, the 2 models differ. The GFS
continues to nose a strong high pressure from southeastern Canada
into the area, while the ECMWF keeps this high off the Atlantic
coast, and is weaker. Though the 00Z ECMWF does nose the high
pressure farther inland than the previous run. The GFS solution
would keep the area dry for the beginning of next week, while the
ECMWF would keep it unsettled. Due to the uncertainty, a blend of
models seems reasonable.
The cold frontal passages Wednesday night looks to come through dry
with limited moisture to work with. There may be some showers and
thunderstorms with the warm frontal passage on Thursday, mainly
inland as the lower temperatures over the coastal areas stabilizes
those areas. A thermal trough sets up over inland areas for Friday
and Saturday, which will mean diurnal showers and thunderstorms for
these areas. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible with
the backdoor cold front passage late Sunday into Sunday night. This
will not be a continuous rainfall event from Friday through Sunday
night.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will pass through the terminals
through this evening. Will carry VCSH/VCTS in the 18Z TAFs through
this evening, but confidence on timing and coverage is low.
Generally a VFR forecast. Conds may briefly lower to MVFR in
SHRA/TSRA. In addition, MVFR VSBY possible in areas of BR late
tonight, mainly away from KNYC terminals.
Winds generally ranging from N to NW at 5-10 KT. Winds become
LGT/VRB this evening and tonight.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KISP TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Wednesday through Sunday...
.Wednesday through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Occasional MVFR in
showers/thunderstorms possible.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday Night, allowing for forecast winds and seas to stay
below SCA criteria.
The only hazard across the forecast waters, mainly the western
forecast waters, will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into early this evening with potential for gusty winds,
heavy rain and small hail. Otherwise no hazardous conditions are
expected.
Winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria for the long term
with light a pressure gradient.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of less than 1/4 inch are expected for the rest
into early this evening. Locally higher amounts will be possible
in thunderstorms.
No concerns for hydrology Wednesday through Monday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
150 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks northeast today and tonight,
moving along the New England coast. High pressure builds in
briefly for late tonight and Wednesday. A cold front moves
through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and lifts north
as a warm front later in the day Thursday. High pressure remains
situated over the western Atlantic through the first half of the
weekend. A backdoor cold front moves through on late Saturday
night into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The forecast is pretty much on track here. There were some slight
adjustments to better match observed trends with regards to
temperatures, dewpoints, and pops for showers. Otherwise though, no
remarkable changes were made to the forecast database.
A weakening low south of Cape Cod tracks slowly northeast through
today. A weak surface trough extends back from the low into the
lower Hudson Valley. Meanwhile an upper closed, and nearly cutoff
low, east southeast of the Delmarva, as seen on the water vapor
loop, drifts north to northeast and begins to fill and get picked
up by the northern stream.
With areas of energy rotating around the low and the surface low,
showers will continue through this morning, eventually becoming
more scattered this afternoon. Instability is very weak this
morning and generally less than 50 J/KG but this will increase
this afternoon to a few hundred J/KG with increased daytime
heating at the surface. Forecast includes isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight the upper low continues to fill and becomes an open wave
after 06Z and the northern stream carries the low into Maine and
Nova Scotia, merging with low pressure over eastern Canada. The
surface low becomes nearly indistinguishable by late tonight, also
merging with a surface low over eastern Canada. By 00Z
precipitation is quickly ending as heights rise from as weak upper
ridging builds to the west. This ridge builds through Wednesday
with dry weather late this evening through Wednesday.
Warmer air continues to move into the region tonight through
Wednesday at the lower and mid levels. A dramatic warmup is
expected across the entire region as a westerly flow allows even
coastal areas to warm to well above seasonal normals.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak area of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will push a
cold front through the area Wednesday night. This front will then
head quickly back north as a warm front, moving through Thursday
afternoon.
Thereafter, there will be a prolonged period of southerly flow as
surface high pressure settles over the Western Atlantic. At the same
time, ridging aloft will mean rising heights and therefore, warming
temperatures, mainly for areas away from the coast. Closer to the
coast, flow off the cooler ocean waters will keep these areas a few
degrees cooler than inland. With a southerly flow, dewpoints will
also be on the rise. By the weekend, dewpoints could be in the lower
60s, making it slightly uncomfortable for some.
The 00Z ECMWF and the 00Z GFS are in better agreement on the passage
of a back door cold front late Saturday night into Sunday (quicker
than previously forecast). Thereafter, the 2 models differ. The GFS
continues to nose a strong high pressure from southeastern Canada
into the area, while the ECMWF keeps this high off the Atlantic
coast, and is weaker. Though the 00Z ECMWF does nose the high
pressure farther inland than the previous run. The GFS solution
would keep the area dry for the beginning of next week, while the
ECMWF would keep it unsettled. Due to the uncertainty, a blend of
models seems reasonable.
The cold frontal passages Wednesday night looks to come through dry
with limited moisture to work with. There may be some showers and
thunderstorms with the warm frontal passage on Thursday, mainly
inland as the lower temperatures over the coastal areas stabilizes
those areas. A thermal trough sets up over inland areas for Friday
and Saturday, which will mean diurnal showers and thunderstorms for
these areas. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible with
the backdoor cold front passage late Sunday into Sunday night. This
will not be a continuous rainfall event from Friday through Sunday
night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will pass through the terminals
through this evening. Will carry VCSH/VCTS in the 18Z TAFs through
this evening, but confidence on timing and coverage is low.
Generally a VFR forecast. Conds may briefly lower to MVFR in
SHRA/TSRA. In addition, MVFR VSBY possible in areas of BR late
tonight, mainly away from KNYC terminals.
Winds generally ranging from N to NW at 5-10 KT. Winds become
LGT/VRB this evening and tonight.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KISP TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Wednesday through Sunday...
.Wednesday through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Occasional MVFR in
showers/thunderstorms possible.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday as a weakening low south of Cape Cod tracks to the
northeast through tonight and high pressure builds in late tonight
and Wednesday.
The only hazard across the forecast waters will be isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening. Otherwise
no hazardous conditions are expected.
Winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria for the long term
with light a pressure gradient.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of less than 1/4 inch are expected for the rest
of today into this evening. Locally higher amounts will be
possible in isolated thunderstorms.
No concerns for hydrology Wednesday through Monday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...JM/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
147 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over southeast Long Island will bring scattered to
numerous showers across our region from the Capital District south
and east today with perhaps a rumble of afternoon thunder. Clouds
will keep temperatures a little less warm than yesterday. This
storm will move to our east tonight and high pressure will briefly
build in through early Wednesday. A weak front will bring some
showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the Capital region
Wednesday afternoon. After that, a large Bermuda high will take
hold of our weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 134 PM EDT...A closed off upper level low is located just
southeast of the region off the coast of southern New England to
the east of Long Island. Moisture wrapping around this feature
continues to allow for some showers. The bulk of these have been
occurring over southern Vermont and into adjacent Washington and
Rensselaer Counties New York. Some parts of southern Vermont have
seen locally around an inch of rainfall according to the latest
MRMS precip estimation.
Temps continue to vary from northwest to southeast across the area
this afternoon. Thanks to partly to mostly sunny skies, some
parts of the central/western Adirondacks have already reached into
the mid 70s, while southern and eastern areas seeing lots of
clouds remain only in the low 60s. Temps look to be fairly steady
for the afternoon hours, with the warmest readings in northwest
parts of the area. Most places from Albany on south/east won`t see
much sun for the remainder of the day.
The latest 16z 3km HRRR suggests that the threat for showers will
remain in the forecast for this afternoon, mainly for areas east
of the Hudson River. There might be enough instability with colder
temperatures aloft for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon,
although most areas won`t see any thunder. Will continue with just
a slight chance of thunder for much of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cutoff low is forecast to drift east of Cape Cod tonight taking
all the showers with it. Weak high pressure will build tonight
into early Wednesday with a return to sunshine and higher
temperatures back to 80-85 in the valleys, mid to upper 70s over
the higher elevations.
By afternoon, a weak back door front looks to slip southward into
the Adirondacks touching off some scattered showers and possibly
thunderstorms. One or two cells could make it south into the Capital
region and even northern Catskills.
A west to southwest wind 5-15 mph will become northwesterly during
the afternoon.
The front looks to washout by Wednesday night over the region as it
slides to our south. Wednesday night looks dry with perhaps a
little patchy fog as the wind will become light or calm overnight.
Thursday will start out dry, but with increasing moisture, and
perhaps a weak short wave, some scattered showers or thunderstorms
could develop by afternoon across the region. These will be hit and
miss with many areas likely not getting any rain at all.
Otherwise, temperatures will climb in the mid or upper 80s in the
valleys, 75-80 higher terrain. Dewpoints will reach the lower 60s in
the Hudson valley south of Albany, mid or upper 50s further north so
it will feel a little uncomfortably warm to some.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended forecast features above normal temperatures for the
holiday weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.
Friday-Friday night...the warm front finally moves through eastern
NY and western New England during this time frame. A warm and humid
air mass settles in...as dewpoints rise into the 60s. The boundary
will likely be in the vicinity of the forecast area...and a weak
short-wave in the west to southwest flow aloft will likely focus
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The latest GFS20
has modest SBCAPEs in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, but the amount of
deep shear remains uncertain. It is hard to ascertain if the
convection will be severe this far out. H850 temps rise to +14C to
+16C with highs in the lower to mid 80s in the valley
locations...and mid 70s to around 80F over the mountains. The
showers and thunderstorms should diminish quickly with the boundary
retreating northward and the daytime heating gone. Lows will be
upper 50s to lower 60s over most of the forecast area.
Saturday-Saturday Night...The subtropical high builds in from the
western Atlantic. The ALY forecast get into a warm sector. H850
temps nudge up to +15C to +17C on the latest ECMWF. PWATs increase
to 1-1.5 inches. The GFS model soundings do not look very capped.
Pop-up diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible
capable of heavy rainfall. The big question is the timing of the
backdoor cold front from Northern New England and southeast Canada.
The guidance varies on the timing and placement of the boundary. Our
forecast reflects a timing more Saturday night into Sunday. Highs
will be steamy for late May with humidity levels on the increase.
Highs will be mainly in the mid and upper 80s for elevations at 1000
ft or lower...and upper 70s to lower 80s over the mountains. A
slight to low chc of showers and thunderstorms will likely linger
most of the night as the backdoor cold front dips south/southwest
across the region.
Sunday into Memorial Day...Temps look a bit cooler...closer to
normal for late May on Sunday...as the backdoor cold front stalls
over central NY...eastern PA and northern NJ. The ECMWF has H850
temps fall back to +10C to +12C from east to west over the forecast
area...as the cold front moves through...and high pressure builds in
from New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. There will continue to be solid
chances of showers and thunderstorms as the cold front looks to move
through. The amount of instability available will be the main issue
for any strong to severe thunderstorms as the shear increases. This
will continue to be monitored over the next several days. Highs on
Sunday fall back into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Lows Sunday night
fall back into the 50s to lower 60s. Memorial Day will feature a
threat of a shower or thunderstorm...but it is uncertain where the
frontal boundary goes. The latest WPC guidance has it move north
into southern Quebec and Northern New England again. When a boundary
is in the area with light to moderate amounts of instability and
appreciable moisture...then a slight to low chc of showers and
thunderstorms...especially in the afternoon will persist through the
holiday weekend. Overall...it does not look like a washout at this
point. After lows Sunday night in the 50s...highs will likely be in
the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Still some spokes of precipitation rotating around the low
pressure system to our east. Have VCSH at all terminals for the
afternoon. Not out of the question that a terminal could drop to
MVFR conditions in a shower...or perhaps IFR...but chances are
slight. Slight chances for TSRA this afternoon as well...but not
sufficient to warrant mention in TAFs. So will maintain VFR at
all terminals this afternoon.
Question for tonight will be how much BR/FG form. All terminals
will clear out tonight. Winds will be light. Best chances for FG
are at KPSF where showers deposited around 0.2 inch of rain today.
Have also included IFR conditions at KGFL in BR. At KALB and
KPOU...MVFR in BR forecast.
After BR/FG clears /by 12Z-13Z/ VFR conditions will prevail all
terminals for Wednesday through 18z.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH levels should remain elevated today dropping not low than about
50 percent most places. There will be scattered to numerous showers
mainly from the Capital region south and eastward. Most areas will
likely not receive a quarter inch, except perhaps Litchfield county
into the Mid Hudson valley and southern Catskills.
The showers will move out tonight leaving us with a nearly fully
recovery and likely the formation of dew as the wind will be light.
Wednesday, will start out dry and sunny. A weak disturbance could
trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the
Capital region but a few could stray further south.
A full recovery tonight as the showers move out followed by warm
increasingly humid weather for the balance of the week.
Low pressure tracking close to southern New England will
scattered to numerous showers from the Capital region and perhaps
an afternoon thunderstorm to locations from the Capital Region
south and east. Weak high pressure will build east off the mid
Atlantic states and summer like weather will spread across our
region from the southwest through the end of next week.
The surface wind will be light out of the north or northeast through
Tuesday, generally 5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at 10 to
15 mph...with a few gusts near 20 mph possible in the afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.
Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms today. At this time amounts up to a tenth of an inch
in our northwestern zones, to quarter to half an inch in our
southeastern zones is anticipated. We do not expect this rainfall to
produce much if any rises on rivers streams and reservoirs.
There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...Frugis/HWJIV/OKeefe
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
204 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds to the south and east through tonight
followed by a weak cold front crossing the area on Thursday. This
front then lifts north as a warm front Thursday night, with high
pressure building in behind the front through Saturday night. A
series of frontal boundaries then impact the area from Sunday into
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
With high pressure translating off the southeast coast, a sw flow
is setting up across the region. The pressure gradient is weak
enough and enough land sea temperature differential has led to sea
breeze circulations keeping coastal locations relatively cooler
than places farther inland. Temperatures are well into the 80s
across the region and will reach near 90 for some locations. Sky
conditions are sunny without much of any clouds with ridging and
thereby subsidence aloft. Temperatures and dewpoints were
slightly adjusted to better match observed trends with otherwise
no other remarkable changes made to the forecast database.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Deep layered ridging remains in control tonight and Thursday. It
will be dry tonight, with only some high clouds around. However, a
700-500 hPa shortwaves passes over the top of the ridge, and
through the area Thursday afternoon. This, coupled with surface
based CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, Showalter Indices from -2 to 2, and
20-25kt of Bulk shear over roughly the NW 2/5 of the CWA, warrants
slight chance to chance pops in that region.
It should be noted that the ECMWF suggests that there should be
sufficient subsidence under the ridge to keep things dry
throughout the area on Thursday. The GFS however suggests fairly
extensive convection over roughly the NW 2/5 of the CWA, with the
NAM somewhat in between (though closer to the ECMWF than the
GFS). Noting, that in addition to the passing shortwave, will also
have a cold front sinking south into the region. Based on this, it
appears there is enough forcing to warrant pops at this time.
However, there is still the potential for no precipitation at all
on Thursday.
For lows tonight, a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter
temperatures was used, with values around 10-15 degrees above
normal. A blend of MAV/ECS/MET guidance, NAM 2-meter temperatures
and a mix down from 850-750 hPa, per BUFKIT soundings, was used
for highs on Thursday. Highs should be around 15 degrees above
normal, but probably a degree or so lower than today. If the more
extensive convection suggested by the GFS plays out, highs,
especially over western areas, might need to be lowered by at
least 5 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Frontal boundary lifts north of the area as a warm front Thursday
night. A southerly flow and ridging aloft will allow for the
above normal temperatures to continue Friday and Saturday. It will
also mean a noticeable increase in humidity as inland areas will
see dewpoints into the lower to middle 60s by Friday afternoon,
mainly away from the coast. The relatively cool ocean waters will
keep temperatures and dewpoints down along coastal areas. However,
temperatures across central Nassau and Suffolk may reach the upper
70s to near 80 on both Friday and Saturday.
The warm front then approaches our area again late Saturday night
into Sunday morning as a back door cold front. High pressure behind
this cold front over southeastern Canada slips off the New England
coast and into the western Atlantic during this time period. This
high is weaker than in previous model runs, and thus will not push
as far into our area as previously forecast. This will help to keep
the frontal boundary in the vicinity through Monday morning.
Sunday`s temperature may be a difficult one depending on which side
of the front we will be on.
We will be warm sectored on Monday. However, clouds and will keep
temperatures down.
A cold front then approaches for Tuesday.
Something to watch is the disturbance well off the Southeast coast.
Models show this disturbance moving inland over the Southeast coast
and having little, if any, impact for our area through the forecast
period. However, moisture from this system could make its way into
our area on Tuesday, but right now it looks like a low chance of
that happening. It is still a few days out with a good deal of
uncertainty in the forecast.
As far as rainfall, nothing looks organized for the long term.
There is a fair amount of moisture available given the humid airmass
and surface based CAPE values are high for the afternoons from
Friday through Monday, but lift does not look overly impressive.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible for areas north and
west of NYC Friday and Saturday. Then there is at least a slight
chance for the entire area on Sunday with the approach of the back
door cold front, which will remain in the vicinity through Monday.
Continued unsettled for Tuesday with the approach of the cold front
from the west. None of these days are expected to be a washout, just
passing showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the west today.
VFR forecast.
West winds 8-12 kt will back to the SW through this afternoon.
Gusts 17-19 kt through this afternoon.
SW winds 5-10 kt this evening at KNYC terminals and LGT/VRB
elsewhere. Afternoon sea breezes expected on Thursday.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 18-22 kt this afternoon. Sea
breeze also could back winds to the South through this evening.
KLGA TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional. Winds might back
closer to 250-230 magnetic this afternoon.
KEWR TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional.
KTEB TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional.
KHPN TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional.
KISP TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional. Winds might
back closer to 230-210 magnetic this afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Thursday through Monday...
.Thursday afternoon...VFR. Afternoon sea breezes.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Mainly VFR but sub-VFR
possible in showers/evening thunderstorms.
.Friday through Friday night...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR possible in
isolated showers and evening thunderstorms.
.Saturday...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms north
of NYC/Long Island.
.Sunday...Sub-VFR possible in afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
.Monday...Sub-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
No hazards are expected today with sub SCA conditions as high
pressure builds south of the waters.
Outside of afternoon seabreezes bring gusts to around 20 kt to the
New York Bight Region this afternoon and Thursday, a light to
moderate pressure gradient over the area will keep winds to 15 kt
or less through Sunday. With no significant swell forecast, these
relatively light winds will keep seas below Small Craft Advisory
criteria as well throughout the forecast period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Dry through Thursday morning. Scattered to Isolated Showers and
Thunderstorms, mainly from NYC on N/W Thursday afternoon/evening
could bring less than 1/2 inch of rain to that area.
There are no significant hydrologic impacts expected from Thursday
Night into early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Maloit/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/Maloit/JP
HYDROLOGY...Maloit/JP
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
200 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will move southward from the Saint Lawrence Valley
this afternoon. This boundary will eventually stall across the
region tonight then move back north as a warm front late in the
week. A large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather as we
head into the holiday weekend with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 159 PM EDT...High pressure is ridging in from the
south...as a cold front has become stationary near the St Lawrence
River Valley. Temps are exceeding current forecasted values...so
have increased 2 to 3 degrees with mid and upper 80s possible in
the Hudson River Valley. A few showers are possible for the
western Adirondacks with a weak disturbance ahead of the front.
Slight chc pops were kept in there. Better Chances for any
convection should be limited to northern New York and the
Adirondacks in the vicinity of the boundary.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Any convection will dissipate quickly after sunset. We will be
left with a clear to partly cloudy night with a summery feel, as
low temperatures only dip to around 50 in the coolest spots, 55-60
in most areas, warmest right in the Capital region. The wind will
become light and once again there could be a few patches of fog
around daybreak.
We continue to see some mixed signals in guidance as to coverage
of clouds and how extensive any shower or thunderstorm activity
will be on Thursday and Friday. It looks as if a weak boundary
and another disturbance could trigger some convection later
Thursday as dewpoints increase into the 60s, although SBCAPES do
not look that high (500-1000 J/KG). Most of the day will be dry
and there will a good of deal sunshine as well. Very warm
temperatures will likely be a point or two higher than Wednesday.
Scattered convection could linger into Thursday night as the
aforementioned boundary slowly lifts northward as warm front
through our region.
By Friday, 500 MB heights continue to rise as an impressive ridge
builds just to our south, reaching close to 590 hectopascals , not
too shabby for May. Rising heights tend to induce subsidence and
capping.
Still most models do indicate a scattered of showers and
thunderstorms for mainly Friday afternoon so will continue with
low chances of thunderstorms. It will be another very warm to hot
day with highs 85-90 in the valleys, 80-85 higher terrain.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unsettled weather and very warm temperatures are expected during the
long term period.
There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms each day through
Monday with a chance of showers on Tuesday. The activity will be
most widespread during the afternoon and evening hours. The forecast
area will be impacted by ridge rollers as moisture rides along the
top of the ridge which will be anchored to our south. Sunday and
Monday are the days during which the thunderstorm activity looks
most widespread as a back door cold front drops southwest on Sunday
and returns north as a warm front on Monday.
Highs on Saturday are expected to be in the upper 70s to upper 80s
with highs on Sunday in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Highs on Monday are
expected to be in the 70s with mid 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday. Lows
Friday night and Saturday night are expected to be in the 60s with
lows Sunday night and Monday night in the mid 50s to around 60.
Overall temperatures are expected to be well above normal with
precipitation above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Aloft, heights will continue to rise as ridging builds in through
the overnight into Thursday. At the surface, a cold front is
approaching from the Saint Lawrence Valley. This boundary will
move gradually southeastward across the region through Thursday.
Chances for any convection through the TAF period 18z/Thu should
be limited to the northern New York in the vicinity of the boundary
this afternoon, north of KGFL.
Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period, 18Z/Thu. The exception
will be the possibility will be for MVFR due to fog at KGFL late
tonight.
Westerly winds with gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon will diminish
this evening.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday night through Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance
of SHRA...and mainly PM TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Outside of a few isolated showers or thunderstorms across the
Adirondacks, it should be a dry warm day today. RH values will
drop into the 30s in most valley locations this afternoon, but
stay in the 40s across most of the higher terrain. A west wind
will average 10 mph later in the morning through early evening.
There will be some gusts to 20 mph across the higher elevations,
Mohawk valley and Greater Capital District.
A Bermuda high will take control of our weather for the next
several upcoming day. This feature will bring very warm
increasingly humid days and nights will full recovery. There will
be chances of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms,
especially over the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Saturday.
Today looks mainly dry outside a few possible showers and
thunderstorms across the Adirondacks. As a Bermuda high forms, we
can expect warm and increasingly humid weather Thursday through
the weekend.
While most of that time will be rainfree, there is an increasing
chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day. These look
scattered but as PWATS increase well over an inch, isolated heavy
rainfall will possible by Friday afternoon.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/Wasula
NEAR TERM...IAA/Wasula
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1026 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge will bring very warm weather to most of the
region through Saturday, except for cooler temperatures at times
along the immediate coast. A backdoor cold front will bring cooler
weather to the region sometime on Sunday, but temperatures should
rebound to at or above normal by early next week. A few showers
and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday, and
again this weekend but the vast majority of this time will be dry.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***Summer temperatures push in today across the region***
1030 AM Update...Most of the fog has cleared out across the area
with the exception of one band of fog that is hugging the south
coast of RI and moving eastward towards Buzzards Bay and the Cape.
If it continues on this trajectory without burning off, portions
of Cape Cod along the Cape Cod Canal as well as Martha`s Vineyard
and the Elizabeth Islands will see a period of fog later this
morning into early afternoon. Visibilities have been generally
about a mile with this bank of fog on land, it may be more dense
over the water. Made minor adjustments to the temperatures to ease
them back as they have not jumped up as quickly as forecast.
Otherwise, the previous forecast is on track.
Weak ridging at the surface and aloft will cross the region by
midday through the afternoon with NW winds aloft. Warm core H925
temps will push across the region, up to +19C to +22C by this
afternoon. Once skies become mostly sunny, temps will rise quickly
with excellent low and mid level mixing in place. Expect temps to
top off in the mid-upper 80s with a few spots touching 90.
However, dewpoints falling into the 40s will result in low
humidity levels.
High clouds will start to push in from the NW during the mid and
late afternoon ahead of H5 short wave across far northern New
England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Tonight...
Most of the energy from a weak H5 shortwave trough will remain
across northern New England. NW flow keeps dry conditions across
the region tonight. The mid and upper level clouds will dissipate
overnight as SW winds shift back to W-NW and diminish. It will
remain mild, with temperatures only bottoming out from the mid 50s
well inland to lower-mid 60s across the coastal plain.
Thursday...
A cold front will slowly push S across the region during the day.
Clouds will push in from the W as the front moves in during the
afternoon. Short range models vary in their solutions, with mainly
dry conditions through the day offered by the ECMWF, but the GFS
tends to bring some moisture with a weak H5 shortwave in the W-NW
flow aloft. Have mentioned only slight chance PoPs moving into W
MA/N Central CT during the mid and late afternoon hours.
Have noted marginal instability with this system, plus another
day of warm temperatures, so have mentioned widely scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms.
It will be another warm day, with somewhat higher dewpoints making
it feel a bit more humid. Highs will again be in the mid-upper 80s
away from the immediate coast, with a few spots possibly hitting
90 again.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...
* Friday: Very warm w/highs mid-upper 80s northwest of BOS-PVD but
a bit cooler across southeast MA/RI
* Saturday: Hot and a bit humid w/highs mainly upper 80s to lower
90s away from the immediate south coast
* Sunday: Temps uncertain depending on timing of cold front, warmest
readings likely CT River Valley w/coolest across Eastern MA coast
* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri and again Sat/Sun
but the vast majority of this time will be dry
* At or above normal temperatures likely return early next week
Details...
Thursday night...Shortwave energy and a burst of elevated
instability may result in a few showers/t-storms Thursday night,
mainly northwest of a Boston to Providence line. If any activity is
able to develop, it will be short-lived with the majority of the
night ending up dry. Low temps mainly in the upper 50s to the lower
60s. May see some patchy ground fog develop late in the typically
prone locations.
Friday...Surface winds shift to the south-southwest behind the
warm front as 850T rise to around +14C. Plenty of sunshine should
allow highs to warm into the middle to upper 80s northwest of a
Boston to Providence line. Southeast of this line...a cooling
marine layer may hold highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
Dry weather will dominate on Friday, but enough instability
combined with a pre-frontal trough may allow a few
showers/thunderstorms to develop across W MA/N CT Fri afternoon
and evening. Not sure if this activity gets into our region or
stays to our west, but highest risk will be across northwest MA.
Shear is rather weak so even if we see a few thunderstorms in our
western zones, overall severe weather threat is rather low.
Saturday...A hot and somewhat humid day is on tap to kick off the
Memorial Day Weekend. 850T around +16C, plenty of sunshine, and a
westerly component to the surface winds should allow for high temps
to reach into the upper 80s to the lower 90s away from the immediate
south coast. Dewpoints between 60 and 65 across most of the region
will make it feel a bit humid.
While most of the day will be dry, a few showers and
thunderstorms may develop Saturday afternoon and evening with a
pre-frontal trough and CAPE values between 1000 and 2000 J/KG.
This will be mainly to the northwest of a Boston to Providence
line. Forcing will be rather weak, so areal coverage of any
activity that develops may remain limited. Severe weather threat
also looks rather low at this time with rather weak 0 to 6 km
shear, but too early to rule out a strong thunderstorm or two
given decent instability.
Sunday...Low confidence on high temperatures given a subtle change
in timing of the backdoor cold front will make a big difference in
the exact outcome. We can say that the warmest readings will be
across the lower CT River Valley and coolest along the eastern MA
coast. Good shot though at the CT River Valley seeing high temps
reaching well into the 80s, while the eastern MA coast has
afternoon temps falling into the 60s. A few showers will remain
possible and perhaps even a couple of t-storms across the interior
if enough instability develops during the afternoon.
Monday and Tuesday...Backdoor cold front does not appear as strong
on the latest model runs. It looks to washout across the region
early next week. GFS washes out on Monday while the ECMWF waits
until Tuesday. Probably should see the return to above normal temps
by Tue with rather warm temps aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...High confidence. VFR conditions expected the rest of the
day, except on the Cape and Islands where fog may reduce
visibilities down to MVFR/IFR at times.
Tonight...High confidence. VFR conditions. W-NW winds 10 kt or
less.
Thursday...High confidence. VFR. Light W-NW winds, except sea
breezes possible late morning/afternoon along the coast.
KBOS TAF...Moderate to high confidence. An ESE sea breeze has
developed and is expected to continue into early afternoon.
Southwesterly winds should overcome this by late afternoon.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday night and Friday...Moderate to high confidence. VFR
conditions likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible
in a few brief showers/t-storms mainly across the interior. Also,
some patchy ground fog possible in the typically prone locations
very early Fri AM.
Saturday...Moderate to high confidence. VFR conditions likely
dominate but a brief period of MVFR-IFR cigs/vsbys possible in a
few afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms.
Sunday...Low confidence. MVFR-IFR conditions may develop from east
to west behind a backdoor cold front. A few thunderstorms also
possible Sun afternoon across the interior.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...High confidence. W winds up to 10 kt will back to SW
10-15 kt this afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt on the southern
outer waters. Seas 4 ft or less. Patchy fog mainly along the south
coast will result in reduced visibilities at times.
Tonight...High confidence. Light southwesterly winds become
westerly, gusting up to 20 kt on the southern outer waters this
evening. Seas 4 ft or less.
Thursday...High confidence. Light W winds shifting to S in the
afternoon. Seas remain below 5 ft.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will generally remain below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds through the period. The main concerns are a period of
near-shore southwesterly wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots Saturday
afternoon which will result in some choppy seas for mariners. May
also see some brief easterly wind gusts between 20 and 25 knots on
Sunday behind a backdoor cold front.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Today...Expect temperatures will rise quickly, soaring well into
the 80s to near 90 across most locations except cooler along the
immediate south coast. These temperatures will combine with
dewpoints dropping into the 40s resulting in afternoon RH values down
to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly wind gusts up
to 20 to perhaps briefly 25 mph are anticipated. Given Tuesday`s
rainfall and marginal criteria, will fall short of needing fire
weather headlines. Many locations are close to or already at full
green-up.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ003-004-
006>008.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...Frank/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/EVT
MARINE...Frank/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...Staff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
229 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A few leftover showers may fall across western MA and north
central Conn., as well as south coastal MA and RI through the
early this morning as low pressure slowly moves northeast to the
Gulf of Maine. An upper level high pressure ridge will then bring
very warm to hot weather to most of the region Wednesday through
Saturday, except for cooler temperatures at times on the immediate
coast. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night
into Friday, but a better chance exists Saturday afternoon and
evening ahead of a backdoor cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
145 AM Update...
H5 cutoff low has pushed just E of Cape Cod as seen on latest
water vapor and IR satellite imagery. Winds have diminished to
near calm away from the coast at 05Z obs. Noting patchy dense fog
has started to form across portions of the CT valley into NE CT.
May see more develop over the next few hours across central and
western areas. May also see a few showers develop with the last
of the band crossing out the Berkshires through 08Z-09Z.
Remainder of previous forecast in pretty good shape, but have
updated to bring current.
Previous discussion...
With light winds across the region, along with lowering
temp/dewpoint spreads, will still see patchy fog develop along
with lingering low clouds from around Worcester and Windham
counties eastward through around midnight, but trends continue to
indicate that this should slowly push E during the early morning
hours as the low exits, but will be slowest across E coastal MA.
Partial clearing should begin moving into the CT valley after
midnight as winds back to light NW, then will slowly shift E
overnight. Clouds will linger along the E coast through daybreak.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
*** Summer-like Temperatures Move in Today ***
Today ...
Vertically stacked low just east of Cape Cod at 12z/8am but ejects
seaward quickly with rising heights and northwest flow aloft by
midday. Thus any cloudiness across Eastern MA at sunrise quickly
erodes and/or moves offshore with abundant sunshine for the
afternoon. Warming temps aloft to +14c at 850 mb and +21c at 925 mb
yields surface temps at least 30C/86F. Although with boundary layer
mixing beyond 850 mb highs will make a run at 90 in many locations.
However humidity will be low with dew pts only in the mid to upper
40s. Not as warm along the South Coast including Cape Cod and the
Islands...where winds will bend to the southwest off the cooler
ocean waters.
Wed night ...
Dry, tranquil weather with mid level ridge and associated
anticyclonic flow continuing to build across the region from the
west. Dry airmass in place along with diminishing winds and mostly
clear skies will allow temps to fall into the 50s...except 60-65 in
the urban areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* Well above average temperatures for Thu and Fri with the potential
for a spot thunderstorm
* Hazy, Hot and Humid for Saturday with locations reaching 90+F
* Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
* Back door cold front on Sunday will keep conditions cool into
Monday
OVERVIEW...
Large scale pattern is in agreement with both determinisic and
ensemble guidance. Upper level trough will move eastward towards the
Maritimes as Midwest ridge builds into the Northeast. Anomalous
high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to build this
ridge through Saturday. Anticipate summer-like warmth and humidity
to return to the region as ensembles show both the 700 and 500
heights nearly 1-2 standard deviations above normal. Several waves
will move through the flow keeping a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for Late Thursday and again on
Saturday. Because of the mesoscale differences in the guidance
trended the forecast towards an overall blend. Back door cold front
will swing through by Sunday cooling the area down. However, on
Monday, still some discrepancies with offshore high pressure. The
GFS keeps it closer to the coast keeping temps on Monday cooler
while the EC is weaker and more offshore. Continued with a model
blend for now.
DAILIES...
Thursday into Friday...High Confidence.
Upper level ridge will build into the region on each day. Anticipate
the warm weather to continue into Thursday as 925 mb temps are
generally around 20C. This warm airmass combined with westerly flow
and the warm May sun will help aid in high temps reaching into the
mid to upper 80s with a few 90s near the CT valley. Conditions look
to be cooler along the MA coastline as a sea breeze will develop
from weak winds aloft. A spot shower or thunderstorm may develop in
the afternoon, but most of the region will remain dry.
Weak shortwave will pass through the flow Thursday night. Due to
building heights across the region and weak southwesterly flow,
appears that the better forcing will be north of southern New
England. However, cannot rule out the potential for precip Thursday
night into Friday morning across the north and northwest portion of
the region. Guidance continues to highlight the potential for
elevated convection so continued the mention for thunder in the
forecast for now.
Temperatures on Friday look to be similar as they will be on
Thursday with heights in the mid to upper 80s with a few 90F across
the CT valley. Still a large spread in the guidance on if Boston
will reach 80F as there is question in the sea breeze development.
However 925 mb winds appear to be strong enough to allow for good SW
flow to warm the immediate eastern coastline. This southwest flow
will keep the south coast cooler thanks to onshore flow and the
cooler ocean waters.
Once again a spot shower looks to be possible in the afternoon, but
better forcing and instability appears to remain west of the region.
So another dry weather day is expected.
Saturday...Moderate Confidence
Upper level ridge will strengthen across the the eastern Great Lakes
as warm front lifts northward. A very warm day will be on tap as 925
mb temps will warm to 23-24C. Ensembles continue to show
probabilities that many locations could reach above 90F. This hazy,
hot and humid day does have some caveats. Approaching surface trough
looks to trigger afternoon convection for the region. Some storms
could be strong or severe, but a bit to early to tell.
Sunday into Monday...Moderate Confidence.
Back door cold front will swing through the region late Saturday
night into Sunday. This will cool temperatures down across the
region. The front does look to push and stall across the Hudson.
However, could still see upper 70s or low 80s across the CT river
valley as 925 mb temps are between 18-20C. Otherwise anticipate a
cooler weather day.
Still large spread for surface temps on Monday. GFS and EC have
about a 15 degree difference amongst each other. The GFS is cooler
with highs in the low 70s while the EC is warmer with highs in the
low 80s. Continued with a model blend for now to split the
difference. May see a few sct showers on Monday depending on the
location of the southeast low pressure system and how quickly it
moves northwards towards the region.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 12Z...Moderate confidence, though lower in timing of
improving conditions toward daybreak.
Areas of IFR-LIFR CIGS and mixture of VFR to IFR VSBYS in patchy
fog, lowest across interior E MA and portions of CT valley into NE
CT. Should start to see conditions improve to VFR across CT
valley after 08Z, then slowly progressing E after daybreak. Calm
or light/vrbl winds.
Today...Moderate confidence this morning, then high confidence.
IFR CIGS and areas of MVFR-IFR VSBYS across central-E MA/RI should
improve by mid morning. Otherwise, VFR. W-SW winds 10 kt or less.
Tonight...High confidence. VFR conditions. W-NW winds less than 10
kt.
Thursday...High confidence. VFR. Light W-NW winds, except sea
breezes possible late morning/afternoon along the coast.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. Uncertain on exact timing of
improvement, but should take place by around 10Z.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. otherwise VFR.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.
Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Low confidence. MVFR conditions to start with some
improvements on Sunday as a back door front swings through.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 12Z...High confidence.
Upper level low will slowly move into Massachusetts Bay during
the early morning hours. Light E-NE winds across the eastern
waters will back to N-NW, becoming mainly W of all waters toward
daybreak. Leftover SE swells will linger on the outer waters E
and S of Cape Cod, but should subside below 5 ft by around 08Z-
09Z. Visibility restrictions in patchy fog, locally dense in some
locations, should improve from W-E.
Today...High confidence on all weather parameters.
Low pressure near Cape Cod at sunrise moves east/offshore by
midday with a drying trend and vsby improving to the horizon.
Winds become southwest by midday.
Tonight...High confidence.
Light southwest winds become westerly. Dry weather and vsby
continue.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period. Could see some brief near shore
southwest wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots are possible Friday and
Saturday...which will result in some choppy seas. Otherwise could
see some afternoon convection on Saturday as a back door cold
front swings through.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday...High temperatures soaring well into the 80s to near
90 in most locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values
dropping to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly
wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are anticipated. Given today`s rainfall
and marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the need for
fire weather headlines especially given many locations are near
full green-up.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for RIZ003-004-006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM EDT early
this morning for ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Dunten
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...Dunten/EVT
MARINE...Nocera/Dunten/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...Staff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
210 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 210 AM EDT...showers have dissipated across all of our region,
and so have many of the clouds.
However, as moisture pooled from the Hudson valley eastward,
patchy dense fog was beginning to form from the Hudson valley
eastward with dewpoints still around 50 or higher, compared to much
lower levels just west, where they were from the upper 30s to mid
40s.
At this time of night, with decoupling, there really is no way for
these dewpoints to advect further east, so we don`t expect much in
them overnight.
We did however, lower some places a couple of degrees. Look for lows
generally 45-50 with light or calm wind.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Good consensus in guidance for sunny to mostly sunny sky over most
of our region Wednesday...but weak upper energy scraping far
northern areas...along with a tightening of the boundary layer
temperature gradient could support some isolated to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms. Winds from the surface through the
boundary layer are expected to be west...and could be a bit gusty
in the afternoon. The mixing should help temperatures reach the
lower to mid 80s in many areas...a few upper 80s mid Hudson Valley
and upper 70s to lower 80s northern areas.
Some mixed signals in guidance as to coverage of clouds and
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and
Friday. Wherever the weak boundary stalls Wednesday night...will
return north Thursday...and could be a diffuse focus for some
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms in northern areas.
Increasing low level moisture and instability could support
diurnal type isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms in other areas of terrain Thursday afternoon and
evening and again Friday afternoon and evening.
There could be some old convective debris that could filter the
sun at times Thursday and Friday...too. Upper level ridging and
low level ridging build east...allowing for deep southwest
flow...warming boundary layer temperatures and increasing low
level humidity. Highs Thursday in the mid to upper 80s with
around 80 to lower 80s in higher terrain. Highs Friday in the mid
to upper 80s...but around 90 southern areas and lower 80s northern
areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast features above normal temperatures for the
holiday weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.
A very active weather pattern across the eastern seaboard as we
monitor the tropics, frontal boundary nearby along with increasing
temperatures and humidity /along with the heat index/. We are well
into the warm sector Friday night as H850 temps surge well into the
mid-teens which should continue into the weekend. However, several
instability factors also climb, although, shear parameters are less
than ideal.
Through Saturday, ridge axis at the surface and especially aloft
builds across the region. As dewpoints climb well into the 60s and
PWATS climbing toward 1.50 inches, it will definitely feel more like
summer. Surface based CAPES too climb toward 2000 J/KG /even higher
with slight modifications of the soundings/ with surface lifted
index values to at or below -5c. So plenty of instability around
but aforementioned shear parameters are generally 15kts or less. For
now, we will leave the chance-scattered PoPs in the grids. Later
into the holiday weekend will be the position of the backdoor front
as the GFS is the most aggressive with taking this front well west
of the region with the ECMWF/GGEM remaining somewhat stationary
across eastern NY. If the later scenario were to verify, the
potential for not only additional convection but heavy rainfall
would be another concern. For now, we will leave in the chance-
scattered PoPs along with partly cloudy-mostly cloudy conditions.
For Memorial Day, confidence is rather low as we monitor the
potential tropical entity along the east coast. Please refer to the
latest tropical outlooks issued by the National Hurricane Center.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
It looks as if we will dealing with quite a bit of IFR flying
conditions through 11Z thanks to residual low level moisture trapped
in the Hudson valley and Berkshires. This despite our local Fog
study program did not forecast any fog in any of the TAFs.
As of 06Z Low IFR was already reported at KGFL and KPSF. While KALB
was still VFR their remarks indicated patches of fog (BCFG) so we
believe they too will have at least temporary times of IFR.
KPOU looks to have some IFR fog although studies have indicated it
is hard to fog at the site.
Any and all fog will be gone before 12Z leaving us to a VFR flying
day as dry air will mix down as a breeze kicks in from the west, 5-
10KTS, gusting to 20KTS by midday at KPSF and KALB. After 12Z clouds
will be few-sct with some cumulus around 5 KFT and a few higher
clouds at times.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
RH values at night tonight and tomorrow night should be in the 70
to 100 percent range. Minimum RH values Wednesday afternoon are
expected to be 30 to 40 percent in southern areas and 40 to 55
percent in northern areas. Minimum RH values on Thursday afternoon
should be 40 to 55 percent.
The surface wind will be light and variable tonight...generally
5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at 10 to 15 mph...with a
few gusts near 20 mph possible in the afternoon. Winds trend to
near calm Wednesday night and then become south at 15 mph or less
Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.
Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms through this evening. At this time additional
rainfall amounts of up to a tenth of an inch in most areas...with
some isolated quarter inch amounts in any thunderstorms in the mid
Hudson Valley...Berkshires and NW CT. We do not expect this
rainfall to produce much if any rises on rivers streams and
reservoirs.
There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM/OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
959 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure departs to the northeast as high pressure builds to
the south on Wednesday. A cold front moves through on Thursday.
High pressure will then dominate through Saturday night as a
series of weak upper level disturbances move across. A cold front
will move through on Sunday. High pressure will build in its wake
across New England Sunday afternoon and night, then pass offshore
Monday, allowing a broad area of low pressure to begin approaching
from the south later Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The forecast is generally on track. persistent showers continue to
track down from new england...so have added chc pops for a few
more hours as a weakening trend is noted on radar as well as in
the hrrr. dry weather should return by midnight with decreasing
clouds overnight. have also added patchy fog to ct coastal areas
and ern long island overnight with light winds and high moisture
content at the sfc. Otherwise...minor adjustments made to hourly
t/td.
The region will be behind a weak surface trough. The upper level
low and associated cold pool aloft shift east of the region. This
will increase subsidence with ridging aloft. The lows were a blend
of 1/3 MET, 1/3 MAV and 1/3 12z GMOS. With lighter winds across
the interior, min temperatures were further lowered by a degree.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For Wednesday, the surface trough will be just east of the
region. This will allow for westerly flow to continue.
Aloft...ridging continues with high pressure establishing itself
southwest of the region. A very warm day is expected with highs
around 15 degrees above normal on average...cooler at the
immediate eastern shorelines with partial sea breeze influences.
Overall though less marine influence with the more westerly flow.
For Wednesday Night, aloft there will be continued ridging. At the
surface, the pressure gradient will become weak with high pressure
becoming weaker and translating farther south into the open
Atlantic. A parent low moves into the Canadian Maritimes but will
be filling in with increasing central pressure...essentially
weakening. The associated cold front moves through by early
Thursday but will be weakening as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summerlike warmth will continue through the first half of the
weekend as longwave upper ridging moves across. Shortwave
disturbances will however be able to move through the longwave ridge
and bring chances for late day convection mainly from NYC north/west
both Friday and Saturday. GFS seems too quick to do so on Thursday
as well, and think any convection that day will be isolated in nature
and confined to well NW of NYC.
High temperatures both Thu/Fri will be well into the 80s in most
places, and some isolated lower 90s are not out of the question somewhere
in urban NE NJ, in the valleys of Orange County, or the interior lower
CT river valley. Lows will range mostly from the mid 50s to the
mid 60s.
The ridge then weakens across New England in response to a sharp
northern stream disturbance moving across eastern Canada, pushing
a back door cold front through on Sunday as a surface high builds
across New England. Forecast details become less certain from
Sunday onward, and will be dependent on how far south the front
sinks. Forecast temperatures could be at least several degrees
cooler and chances for rain lower if the front does push farther
south. Leaning more toward the ECMWF idea of more of a glancing
blow from this cooler air mass for now.
As we go into Monday night and Tuesday, we should start dealing
with influx of Atlantic moisture well north of a subtropical or
tropical weather system now just beginning to organize near and
northeast of the Bahamas, and forecast by global models to head
toward the Southeast coast.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure departs to the northeast as high pressure builds to the
south overnight and Wednesday.
Mid and high clouds give way to clear skies overnight and through
the day Wednesday. However, lingering stratus will take a little
longer to scour out for eastern terminals such as KGON. In addition,
patchy fog will likely develop after midnight for a few outlying
terminals. MVFR or IFR vsbys are possible.
After 12z, any fog lifts.
Winds will be light overnight. West winds 5 to 10 kts in the morning
Wednesday will increase to 9 to 13 kts in the afternoon. A few gusts
are possible in the 15 to 20 kt range.
Winds may back around to the s/sw at KJFK, and CT terminals in the
afternoon with seabreeze influence.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Thursday through Sunday...
.Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Mainly VFR but sub-VFR
possible in showers/evening thunderstorms.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR in showers possible NW of NYC.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday Night, allowing for forecast winds and seas to stay
below SCA criteria.
The only hazard across the forecast waters, mainly the western
forecast waters, will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into early this evening with potential for gusty winds,
heavy rain and small hail. Otherwise no hazardous conditions are
expected.
Minimal SCA conditions mainly in the form of higher ocean seas
may be possible Sunday afternoon and night as easterly flow
increases following a back door cold frontal passage.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
light pcpn amounts (less than 1/10 inch) in any remaining showers this
eve.
Local minor flood impacts from heavier showers/tstms are possible
both late day Friday and Saturday, possibly still well inland well
N/W of NYC on Sunday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
812 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 800 PM EDT...Weak deformation axis association with
scattered to broken band of showers just east of the Hudson River
should continue into the evening hours. The upper low in the
vicinity of Providence, RI is beginning to show signs of tracking
ENE per the latest H2O loop analysis. With this movement we should
see a diminishing trend in the showers which too is suggested by
the HRRR. So main update was to the sky coverage, PoPs/WX, removed
the mention of thunder and expanded the fog a little further west
to include the Hudson River Valley overnight as skies should clear
overnight under diminishing winds. Question will be just how much
fog impact will occur as dewpoints upstream were between 30-40F
compared to mid 50s across eastern NY. We will monitor closely.
Prev disc...Upper low departing northeast slowly but steadily.
Very narrow band of rain in eastern NY with some isolated
thunderstorms from the Berkshires through NW CT and the mid Hudson
Valley. Rain and isolated thunderstorms will build east and
dissipate through the evening...and clearing will take place
through the night.
Quite a bit of clearing outside of the moisture field of the upper
low...so by daybreak most areas should be clear to mostly clear.
There could be some patchy fog as low level winds should trend to
calm and areas with wet ground could support some patchy fog but
with dryer surface dewpoints advecting in...it could minimize
chances for fog. Only including patchy fog for areas east of the
Hudson Valley into western New England where most of the rain has
fallen. Lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Good consensus in guidance for sunny to mostly sunny sky over most
of our region Wednesday...but weak upper energy scraping far
northern areas...along with a tightening of the boundary layer
temperature gradient could support some isolated to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms. Winds from the surface through the
boundary layer are expected to be west...and could be a bit gusty
in the afternoon. The mixing should help temperatures reach the
lower to mid 80s in many areas...a few upper 80s mid Hudson Valley
and upper 70s to lower 80s northern areas.
Some mixed signals in guidance as to coverage of clouds and
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and
Friday. Wherever the weak boundary stalls Wednesday night...will
return north Thursday...and could be a diffuse focus for some
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms in northern areas.
Increasing low level moisture and instability could support
diurnal type isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms in other areas of terrain Thursday afternoon and
evening and again Friday afternoon and evening.
There could be some old convective debris that could filter the
sun at times Thursday and Friday...too. Upper level ridging and
low level ridging build east...allowing for deep southwest
flow...warming boundary layer temperatures and increasing low
level humidity. Highs Thursday in the mid to upper 80s with
around 80 to lower 80s in higher terrain. Highs Friday in the mid
to upper 80s...but around 90 southern areas and lower 80s northern
areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast features above normal temperatures for the
holiday weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.
A very active weather pattern across the eastern seaboard as we
monitor the tropics, frontal boundary nearby along with increasing
temperatures and humidity /along with the heat index/. We are well
into the warm sector Friday night as H850 temps surge well into the
mid-teens which should continue into the weekend. However, several
instability factors also climb, although, shear parameters are less
than ideal.
Through Saturday, ridge axis at the surface and especially aloft
builds across the region. As dewpoints climb well into the 60s and
PWATS climbing toward 1.50 inches, it will definitely feel more like
summer. Surface based CAPES too climb toward 2000 J/KG /even higher
with slight modifications of the soundings/ with surface lifted
index values to at or below -5c. So plenty of instability around
but aforementioned shear parameters are generally 15kts or less. For
now, we will leave the chance-scattered PoPs in the grids. Later
into the holiday weekend will be the position of the backdoor front
as the GFS is the most aggressive with taking this front well west
of the region with the ECMWF/GGEM remaining somewhat stationary
across eastern NY. If the later scenario were to verify, the
potential for not only additional convection but heavy rainfall
would be another concern. For now, we will leave in the chance-
scattered PoPs along with partly cloudy-mostly cloudy conditions.
For Memorial Day, confidence is rather low as we monitor the
potential tropical entity along the east coast. Please refer to the
latest tropical outlooks issued by the National Hurricane Center.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers continue to impact the Hudson River Valley and points east
which is mainly where our TAFs are located. Included a VCSH or a
TEMPO group for the next few hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions
through the evening hours.
The question for tonight will be how much BR/FG form. All
terminals will clear out overnight. Winds will be light but
dewpoints upstream are about 10-15 degrees cooler than those
observed across eastern NY and western NE. At this time, the best
IFR chances for FG are at KPSF/KGFL where showers and trapped
moisture near the inversion. Have also included IFR conditions at
KGFL in BR. At KALB and KPOU...MVFR in BR forecast.
After BR/FG clears /by 12Z-13Z/ VFR conditions will prevail all
terminals for Wednesday.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
RH values at night tonight and tomorrow night should be in the 70
to 100 percent range. Minimum RH values Wednesday afternoon are
expected to be 30 to 40 percent in southern areas and 40 to 55
percent in northern areas. Minimum RH values on Thursday afternoon
should be 40 to 55 percent.
The surface wind will be light and variable tonight...generally
5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at 10 to 15 mph...with a
few gusts near 20 mph possible in the afternoon. Winds trend to
near calm Wednesday night and then become south at 15 mph or less
Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.
Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms through this evening. At this time additional
rainfall amounts of up to a tenth of an inch in most areas...with
some isolated quarter inch amounts in any thunderstorms in the mid
Hudson Valley...Berkshires and NW CT. We do not expect this
rainfall to produce much if any rises on rivers streams and
reservoirs.
There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
www.weather.gov/albany
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
737 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks northeast through tonight,
moving into the Gulf of Maine. An associated weak surface trough
will move east of the region tonight. High pressure builds in
from the southwest briefly for late tonight and Wednesday. This
weakens and moves farther offshore Wednesday Night as a weakening
cold front moves through by early Thursday. High pressure will
dominate through Saturday night as a series of weak upper level
disturbances move across. A back door cold front will move through
on Sunday. High pressure will build in its wake across New England
Sunday afternoon and night, then pass offshore Monday, allowing a
broad area of low pressure to begin approaching from the south
later Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The forecast is generally on track. Made some adjustments to pops
next couple of hours based on latest radar trends. Showers
continue to weaken this eve and dry weather should return by
midnight. Otherwise...minor adjustments made to hourly t/td and
winds.
The region will be behind a weak surface trough. The upper level
low and associated cold pool aloft shift east of the region. This
will increase subsidence with ridging aloft. The lows were a blend
of 1/3 MET, 1/3 MAV and 1/3 12z GMOS. 850mb temperatures increase
through the night. A light westerly flow is conveyed by the models
which will help mix down some relatively warmer air tonight
despite the decrease in clouds, thereby mitigating radiational
cooling. With lighter winds across the interior, min temperatures
were further lowered by a degree. Also with lighter winds across
the interior and residual low level moisture...there could be some
patchy fog late into early Wednesday Morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For Wednesday, the surface trough will be just east of the
region. This will allow for westerly flow to continue.
Aloft...ridging continues with high pressure establishing itself
southwest of the region. A very warm day is expected with highs
around 15 degrees above normal on average...cooler at the
immediate eastern shorelines with partial sea breeze influences.
Overall though less marine influence with the more westerly flow.
For Wednesday Night, aloft there will be continued ridging. At the
surface, the pressure gradient will become weak with high pressure
becoming weaker and translating farther south into the open
Atlantic. A parent low moves into the Canadian Maritimes but will
be filling in with increasing central pressure...essentially
weakening. The associated cold front moves through by early
Thursday but will be weakening as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summerlike warmth will continue through the first half of the
weekend as longwave upper ridging moves across. Shortwave
disturbances will however be able to move through the longwave ridge
and bring chances for late day convection mainly from NYC north/west
both Friday and Saturday. GFS seems too quick to do so on Thursday
as well, and think any convection that day will be isolated in nature
and confined to well NW of NYC.
High temperatures both Thu/Fri will be well into the 80s in most
places, and some isolated lower 90s are not out of the question somewhere
in urban NE NJ, in the valleys of Orange County, or the interior lower
CT river valley. Lows will range mostly from the mid 50s to the
mid 60s.
The ridge then weakens across New England in response to a sharp
northern stream disturbance moving across eastern Canada, pushing
a back door cold front through on Sunday as a surface high builds
across New England. Forecast details become less certain from
Sunday onward, and will be dependent on how far south the front
sinks. Forecast temperatures could be at least several degrees
cooler and chances for rain lower if the front does push farther
south. Leaning more toward the ECMWF idea of more of a glancing
blow from this cooler air mass for now.
As we go into Monday night and Tuesday, we should start dealing
with influx of Atlantic moisture well north of a subtropical or
tropical weather system now just beginning to organize near and
northeast of the Bahamas, and forecast by global models to head
toward the Southeast coast.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure departs to the northeast as high pressure builds to the
south tonight and Wednesday.
Mid and high clouds give way to clear skies overnight and through
the day Wednesday. However, lingering stratus will take a little
longer to scour out for eastern terminals such as KGON. In addition,
patchy fog will likely develop after midnight for a few outlying
terminals. MVFR or IFR vsbys are possible.
After 12z, any fog lifts.
Winds will be light tonight. West winds 5 to 10 kts in the morning
Wednesday will increase to 9 to 13 kts in the afternoon. A few gusts
are possible in the 15 to 20 kt range.
Winds may back around to the s/sw at KJFK, and CT terminals in the
afternoon with seabreeze influence.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. A late
day seabreeze is expected Wednesday.
KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. West
winds will increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. West
winds will increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. West
winds will increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KHPN TAF Comments: Patchy fog is possible overnight. West winds will
increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. A late
day seabreeze may approach the airport Wednesday, but do not
expect the seabreeze to move through at this time.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Thursday through Sunday...
.Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Mainly VFR but sub-VFR
possible in showers/evening thunderstorms.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR in showers possible NW of NYC.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday Night, allowing for forecast winds and seas to stay
below SCA criteria.
The only hazard across the forecast waters, mainly the western
forecast waters, will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into early this evening with potential for gusty winds,
heavy rain and small hail. Otherwise no hazardous conditions are
expected.
Minimal SCA conditions mainly in the form of higher ocean seas
may be possible Sunday afternoon and night as easterly flow
increases following a back door cold frontal passage.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of less than 1/4 inch are expected into early
this evening. Locally higher amounts will be possible in
thunderstorms.
Local minor flood impacts from heavier showers/tstms are possible
both late day Friday and Saturday, possibly still well inland well
N/W of NYC on Sunday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
703 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will continue across portions of Southern RI
and southeast MA early this evening as low pressure slowly moves
across southeastern New England. An upper level high pressure
ridge will then bring very warm to hot weather to most of the
region Wednesday through Saturday, except for cooler temperatures
at times on the immediate coast. A few showers and thunderstorms
are possible Thursday night into Friday, but a better chance
exists Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of a backdoor cold
front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
700 PM Update...
Overall forecast is on track. Removed the thunder mention for this
evening as convection has remained just west of southern New
England. Also increased precip trends across RI and southeast MA
as area of showers continues to develop and spin as the upper
level low begins to slowly shift eastward. Otherwise breaks of sun
across western MA as allowed for temps to warm in to the upper 60s
late this afternoon. Onshore flow across eastern MA will continue
until the low shifts eastward creating more of a northerly flow.
Fog and drizzle will remain over the next several hours.
May need to watch for radiational fog development tonight across
the low lying areas as lingering low level moisture combined with
cooling temperatures will create a low temp/dewpoint spread. Dense
fog is not expected at this time.
Previous Discussion...
An area of showers may develop over Southern-Southeastern RI into
Southeast MA as plume of deeper moisture pivots northeast off the
ocean into that area. This is supported by multi model K indices
and latest trends seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Already
seeing the first signs of this with light showers developing over
Marthas Vineyard and Elizabeth Islands. However these showers
should be weak/low top with not a lot of impact. Thus not a
washout expected this evening.
Otherwise drying trend second half of the night as vertically
stacked low moves offshore by sunrise.
Temps seasonably cool tonight with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
*** Summer-like Temperatures Arrive Wednesday ***
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ...
Vertically stacked low just east of Cape Cod at 12z/8am but ejects
seaward quickly with rising heights and northwest flow aloft by
midday. Thus any cloudiness across Eastern MA at sunrise quickly
erodes and/or moves offshore with abundant sunshine for the
afternoon. Warming temps aloft to +14c at 850 mb and +21c at 925 mb
yields surface temps at least 30C/86F. Although with boundary layer
mixing beyond 850 mb highs will make a run at 90 in many locations.
However humidity will be low with dew pts only in the mid to upper
40s. Not as warm along the South Coast including Cape Cod and the
Islands...where winds will bend to the southwest off the cooler
ocean waters.
Wed night ...
Dry, tranquil weather with mid level ridge and associated
anticyclonic flow continuing to build across the region from the
west. Dry airmass in place along with diminishing winds and mostly
clear skies will allow temps to fall into the 50s...except 60-65 in
the urban areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* Well above average temperatures for Thu and Fri with the potential
for a spot thunderstorm
* Hazy, Hot and Humid for Saturday with locations reaching 90+F
* Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
* Back door cold front on Sunday will keep conditions cool into
Monday
OVERVIEW...
Large scale pattern is in agreement with both determinisic and
ensemble guidance. Upper level trough will move eastward towards the
Maritimes as Midwest ridge builds into the Northeast. Anomalous
high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to build this
ridge through Saturday. Anticipate summer-like warmth and humidity
to return to the region as ensembles show both the 700 and 500
heights nearly 1-2 standard deviations above normal. Several waves
will move through the flow keeping a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for Late Thursday and again on
Saturday. Because of the mesoscale differences in the guidance
trended the forecast towards an overall blend. Back door cold front
will swing through by Sunday cooling the area down. However, on
Monday, still some discrepancies with offshore high pressure. The
GFS keeps it closer to the coast keeping temps on Monday cooler
while the EC is weaker and more offshore. Continued with a model
blend for now.
DAILIES...
Thursday into Friday...High Confidence.
Upper level ridge will build into the region on each day. Anticipate
the warm weather to continue into Thursday as 925 mb temps are
generally around 20C. This warm airmass combined with westerly flow
and the warm May sun will help aid in high temps reaching into the
mid to upper 80s with a few 90s near the CT valley. Conditions look
to be cooler along the MA coastline as a sea breeze will develop
from weak winds aloft. A spot shower or thunderstorm may develop in
the afternoon, but most of the region will remain dry.
Weak shortwave will pass through the flow Thursday night. Due to
building heights across the region and weak southwesterly flow,
appears that the better forcing will be north of southern New
England. However, cannot rule out the potential for precip Thursday
night into Friday morning across the north and northwest portion of
the region. Guidance continues to highlight the potential for
elevated convection so continued the mention for thunder in the
forecast for now.
Temperatures on Friday look to be similar as they will be on
Thursday with heights in the mid to upper 80s with a few 90F across
the CT valley. Still a large spread in the guidance on if Boston
will reach 80F as there is question in the sea breeze development.
However 925 mb winds appear to be strong enough to allow for good SW
flow to warm the immediate eastern coastline. This southwest flow
will keep the south coast cooler thanks to onshore flow and the
cooler ocean waters.
Once again a spot shower looks to be possible in the afternoon, but
better forcing and instability appears to remain west of the region.
So another dry weather day is expected.
Saturday...Moderate Confidence
Upper level ridge will strengthen across the the eastern Great Lakes
as warm front lifts northward. A very warm day will be on tap as 925
mb temps will warm to 23-24C. Ensembles continue to show
probabilities that many locations could reach above 90F. This hazy,
hot and humid day does have some caveats. Approaching surface trough
looks to trigger afternoon convection for the region. Some storms
could be strong or severe, but a bit to early to tell.
Sunday into Monday...Moderate Confidence.
Back door cold front will swing through the region late Saturday
night into Sunday. This will cool temperatures down across the
region. The front does look to push and stall across the Hudson.
However, could still see upper 70s or low 80s across the CT river
valley as 925 mb temps are between 18-20C. Otherwise anticipate a
cooler weather day.
Still large spread for surface temps on Monday. GFS and EC have
about a 15 degree difference amongst each other. The GFS is cooler
with highs in the low 70s while the EC is warmer with highs in the
low 80s. Continued with a model blend for now to split the
difference. May see a few sct showers on Monday depending on the
location of the southeast low pressure system and how quickly it
moves northwards towards the region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight ... Moderate confidence with uncertainty centered around
except timing of improving conditions overnight.
Isolated lighter showers east of the Worcester Hills tonight.
Mainly MVFR all terminals except Coastal MA which will see periods
of IFR. VFR across the CT valley. Cigs and vsby improve from west
to east after 06z.
Wed ... high confidence.
Any leftover MVFR cigs at sunrise will be across Eastern MA but
quickly lifting to VFR by 15z or sooner. Dry weather and west
winds except southwest along the coast.
Wed night ... high confidence.
VFR/DRY and light sw winds becoming west.
KBOS TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 06z.
KBDL TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 03z-06z.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday...High confidence. VFR.
Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.
Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Low confidence. MVFR conditions to start with some
improvements on Sunday as a back door front swings through.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
4 pm update ...
Tonight ... high confidence except uncertainty on areal coverage of
showers and exact timing.
Vertically stacked low over the RI waters will slowly drift to Cape
Cod by morning. Few light rain showers will accompany this low along
with patchy fog. Leftover southeast swell of 3-6 ft continue across
the Southeast MA ocean waters.
Wed ... high confidence on all weather parameters.
Low pressure near Cape Cod at sunrise moves east/offshore by midday
with a drying trend and vsby improving to the horizon. Winds become
southwest by midday.
Wed night ... high confidence.
Light southwest winds become westerly. Dry weather and vsby
continue.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period. Could see some brief near shore
southwest wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots are possible Friday and
Saturday...which will result in some choppy seas. Otherwise could
see some afternoon convection on Saturday as a back door cold
front swings through.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ... High temperatures soaring well into the 80s to near
90 in most locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values
dropping to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly
wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are anticipated. Given this morning`s
rainfall and marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the
need for fire weather headlines especially given many locations
are near full green-up.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ003-
004-006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Dunten
NEAR TERM...Nocera/Dunten
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...Nocera/Dunten
MARINE...Nocera/Dunten
FIRE WEATHER...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
411 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms over
Western portions of MA and CT will continue into early this
evening. Scattered showers may also develop across portions of
Southern RI and southeast MA early this evening as low pressure
slowly moves across southeastern New England. An upper level high
pressure ridge will then bring very warm to hot weather to most of
the region Wednesday through Saturday, except for cooler
temperatures at times on the immediate coast. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday, but a
better chance exists Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of a
backdoor cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
400 PM Update ...
Vertically stacked low over the region with -19c air at 500 mb. This
cold air aloft combined with cyclonic flow is resulting in
scattered showers and embedded thunder. The convection is focused
on the western side of the low where SPC mesoanalysis indicates some
baroclinicity at 850 mb and 925 mb along with some breaks of
sunshine yielding 250-500 j/kg of SB cape per mesoanalysis. This
will continue to be the theme thru sunset with convection focused
across this region.
A second area of showers may develop over Southern-Southeastern RI
into Southeast MA as plume of deeper moisture pivots northeast off
the ocean into that area. This is supported by multi model K indices
and latest trends seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Already
seeing the first signs of this with light showers developing over
Marthas Vineyard and Elizabeth Islands. However these showers should
be weak/low top with not a lot of impact. Thus not a washout
expected this evening.
Otherwise drying trend second half of the night as vertically
stacked low moves offshore by sunrise.
Temps seasonably cool tonight with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
*** Summer-like Temperatures Arrive Wednesday ***
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ...
Vertically stacked low just east of Cape Cod at 12z/8am but ejects
seaward quickly with rising heights and northwest flow aloft by
midday. Thus any cloudiness across Eastern MA at sunrise quickly
erodes and/or moves offshore with abundant sunshine for the
afternoon. Warming temps aloft to +14c at 850 mb and +21c at 925 mb
yields surface temps at least 30C/86F. Although with boundary layer
mixing beyond 850 mb highs will make a run at 90 in many locations.
However humidity will be low with dew pts only in the mid to upper
40s. Not as warm along the South Coast including Cape Cod and the
Islands...where winds will bend to the southwest off the cooler
ocean waters.
Wed night ...
Dry, tranquil weather with mid level ridge and associated
anticyclonic flow continuing to build across the region from the
west. Dry airmass in place along with diminishing winds and mostly
clear skies will allow temps to fall into the 50s...except 60-65 in
the urban areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...
* Very warm Wed/Thu/Fri with highs well up into the 80s except
cooler immediate coast at times
* Hot Saturday afternoon w/highs mainly upper 80s to the lower 90s
* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri but best chance Sat
afternoon/evening ahead of cold front
* Turning much cooler Sun and especially Mon along the coast
Details...
Wednesday night...Other than a low risk for a spot shower/t-storm
across the interior during the evening dry weather is expected
behind a weak cold front. Low temps will only fall back into the 50s
in most locations with 60 to 65 in some of the urban centers. A
touch of patchy fog may develop in the typically prone locations
toward daybreak.
Thursday...Upper level ridging across the Southeast U.S. continues
to nose into southern New England. This will result in plenty of
sunshine and with warm mid level temps, highs again should reach
well into the 80s in most locations. However, gradient will be
weaker allowing for sea breezes to develop on the immediate Eastern
MA coast including Boston by early afternoon. High temps will still
likely reach well up into the 70s to near 80 in this region before
sea breezes develop and temps fall a bit. Should remain dry given
lack of forcing and upper level ridging nosing into this region.
Thursday night and Friday...A shortwave will lift northeast into
northern New England Thu night/Fri. While the best forcing will to
our north, a few showers/t-storms are possible with the best chance
across western and northern MA. Certainly not expecting a washout
though and the majority of the Thu night/Fri will be dry.
Still looks like a warm afternoon with temps into the 80s, but it
may be cooler across Northeast MA depending on location of backdoor
cold front.
Saturday...A hot day with westerly flow and 850T near 16c. This
should yield highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations.
Dewpoints into the 60s will make it feel somewhat muggy.
Pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front may trigger
scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly Saturday afternoon and
evening.
Sunday and Monday...High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will
build south into New England. So despite rather high height fields,
northeast low level flow will result in much cooler temps Sun and
especially Mon particularly along the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Some improvement in vsbys observed over past 1 to 2 hours but
cigs slow to rise in onshore flow across much of the area. Believe
will begin to rise into the VFR range across the CT River Valley
by mid afternoon. Rest of the area should see very slow
improvement into at least low MVFR cig range, although there could
be a few holdouts below one thousand feet in SE coastal areas.
Scattered showers and even isolated thunderstorm or two could
develop late this afternoon/evening over portions of RI and SE MA.
There could also be scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms that
develop during the late afternoon near the Berkshire Crest.
Tonight ... Moderate confidence with uncertainty centered around
except timing of improving conditions overnight.
Showers with isolated thunder focused across Western portions of
MA and CT. Isolated lighter showers elsewhere. Mainly MVFR all
terminals except Coastal MA. Showers dissipate with sunset and
cigs and vsby improve after 06z.
Wed ... high confidence.
Any leftover MVFR cigs at sunrise will be across Eastern MA but
quickly lifting to VFR by 15z or sooner. Dry weather and west
winds except southwest along the coast.
Wed night ... high confidence.
VFR/DRY and light sw winds becoming west.
KBOS TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 06z.
KBDL TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 03z-06z. Showers
should stay west of BDL airspace but will be close and need to
watch early this evening.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday...High confidence. VFR conditions other than a few hours
of patchy ground fog possible toward daybreak Thu in the typically
prone locations.
Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.
Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
4 pm update ...
Tonight ... high confidence except uncertainty on areal coverage of
showers and exact timing.
Vertically stacked low over the RI waters will slowly drift to Cape
Cod by morning. Few light rain showers will accompany this low along
with patchy fog. Leftover southeast swell of 3-6 ft continue across
the Southeast MA ocean waters.
Wed ... high confidence on all weather parameters.
Low pressure near Cape Cod at sunrise moves east/offshore by midday
with a drying trend and vsby improving to the horizon. Winds become
southwest by midday.
Wed night ... high confidence.
Light southwest winds become westerly. Dry weather and vsby
continue.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period with the exception being Wednesday
night. Some brief near shore southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25
knots are likely Wed afternoon...which will result in some choppy
seas. In addition, long southwest fetch may bring a period of 5
foot seas across our southern waters Wednesday night which may
require headlines.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ... High temperatures soaring well into the 80s to near
90 in most locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values
dropping to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly
wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are anticipated. Given this morning`s
rainfall and marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the
need for fire weather headlines especially given many locations
are near full green-up.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ003-
004-006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera
NEAR TERM...Nocera
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/Nocera
MARINE...Frank/Nocera
FIRE WEATHER...Nocera
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
248 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks northeast through tonight,
moving into the Gulf of Maine. An associated weak surface trough
will move east of the region tonight. High pressure builds in
from the southwest briefly for late tonight and Wednesday. This
weakens and moves farther offshore Wednesday Night as a weakening
cold front moves through by early Thursday. This lifts north as a
warm front later in the day Thursday. High pressure remains
situated over the western Atlantic through the first half of the
weekend. A backdoor cold front moves through on late Saturday
night into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Higher vorticity advection associated with residual cold pool
aloft with lingering upper level low combined with increased
daytime heating has led to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Some gusty winds and small hail as well as heavy rain are possible
for brief periods of time with these thunderstorms. Most of the
convection has been confined to Southwest Connecticut and Western
Long Island Sound. With CAPE values forecast of a few hundred J/KG
more showers and thunderstorms will be possible with coverage
being scattered. This will decrease with loss of diurnal heating
and as cold pool aloft shift farther east this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight, the region will be behind a weak surface trough. The
upper level low and associated cold pool aloft shift east of the
region. This will increase subsidence with ridging aloft. The
lows were a blend of 1/3 MET, 1/3 MAV and 1/3 12z GMOS. 850mb
temperatures increase through the night. A light westerly flow is
conveyed by the models which will help mix down some relatively
warmer air tonight despite the decrease in clouds, thereby
mitigating radiational cooling. With lighter winds across the
interior, min temperatures were further lowered by a degree.
For Wednesday, the surface trough will be just east of the region.
This will allow for westerly flow to continue. Aloft...ridging
continues with high pressure establishing itself southwest of the
region. A very warm day is expected with highs around 15 degrees
above normal on average...cooler at the immediate eastern
shorelines with partial sea breeze influences. Overall though less
marine influence with the more westerly flow.
For Wednesday Night, aloft there will be continued ridging. At the
surface, the pressure gradient will become weak with high pressure
becoming weaker and translating farther south into the open
Atlantic. A parent low moves into the Canadian Maritimes but will
be filling in with increasing central pressure...essentially
weakening. The associated cold front moves through by early
Thursday but will be weakening as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak area of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will push a
cold front through the area Wednesday night. This front will then
head quickly back north as a warm front, moving through Thursday
afternoon.
Thereafter, there will be a prolonged period of southerly flow as
surface high pressure settles over the Western Atlantic. At the same
time, ridging aloft will mean rising heights and therefore, warming
temperatures, mainly for areas away from the coast. Closer to the
coast, flow off the cooler ocean waters will keep these areas a few
degrees cooler than inland. With a southerly flow, dewpoints will
also be on the rise. By the weekend, dewpoints could be in the lower
60s, making it slightly uncomfortable for some.
The 00Z ECMWF and the 00Z GFS are in better agreement on the passage
of a back door cold front late Saturday night into Sunday (quicker
than previously forecast). Thereafter, the 2 models differ. The GFS
continues to nose a strong high pressure from southeastern Canada
into the area, while the ECMWF keeps this high off the Atlantic
coast, and is weaker. Though the 00Z ECMWF does nose the high
pressure farther inland than the previous run. The GFS solution
would keep the area dry for the beginning of next week, while the
ECMWF would keep it unsettled. Due to the uncertainty, a blend of
models seems reasonable.
The cold frontal passages Wednesday night looks to come through dry
with limited moisture to work with. There may be some showers and
thunderstorms with the warm frontal passage on Thursday, mainly
inland as the lower temperatures over the coastal areas stabilizes
those areas. A thermal trough sets up over inland areas for Friday
and Saturday, which will mean diurnal showers and thunderstorms for
these areas. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible with
the backdoor cold front passage late Sunday into Sunday night. This
will not be a continuous rainfall event from Friday through Sunday
night.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will pass through the terminals
through this evening. Will carry VCSH/VCTS in the 18Z TAFs through
this evening, but confidence on timing and coverage is low.
Generally a VFR forecast. Conds may briefly lower to MVFR in
SHRA/TSRA. In addition, MVFR VSBY possible in areas of BR late
tonight, mainly away from KNYC terminals.
Winds generally ranging from N to NW at 5-10 KT. Winds become
LGT/VRB this evening and tonight.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KISP TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Wednesday through Sunday...
.Wednesday through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Occasional MVFR in
showers/thunderstorms possible.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday Night, allowing for forecast winds and seas to stay
below SCA criteria.
The only hazard across the forecast waters, mainly the western
forecast waters, will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into early this evening with potential for gusty winds,
heavy rain and small hail. Otherwise no hazardous conditions are
expected.
Winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria for the long term
with light a pressure gradient.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of less than 1/4 inch are expected for the rest
into early this evening. Locally higher amounts will be possible
in thunderstorms.
No concerns for hydrology Wednesday through Monday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
150 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks northeast today and tonight,
moving along the New England coast. High pressure builds in
briefly for late tonight and Wednesday. A cold front moves
through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and lifts north
as a warm front later in the day Thursday. High pressure remains
situated over the western Atlantic through the first half of the
weekend. A backdoor cold front moves through on late Saturday
night into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The forecast is pretty much on track here. There were some slight
adjustments to better match observed trends with regards to
temperatures, dewpoints, and pops for showers. Otherwise though, no
remarkable changes were made to the forecast database.
A weakening low south of Cape Cod tracks slowly northeast through
today. A weak surface trough extends back from the low into the
lower Hudson Valley. Meanwhile an upper closed, and nearly cutoff
low, east southeast of the Delmarva, as seen on the water vapor
loop, drifts north to northeast and begins to fill and get picked
up by the northern stream.
With areas of energy rotating around the low and the surface low,
showers will continue through this morning, eventually becoming
more scattered this afternoon. Instability is very weak this
morning and generally less than 50 J/KG but this will increase
this afternoon to a few hundred J/KG with increased daytime
heating at the surface. Forecast includes isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight the upper low continues to fill and becomes an open wave
after 06Z and the northern stream carries the low into Maine and
Nova Scotia, merging with low pressure over eastern Canada. The
surface low becomes nearly indistinguishable by late tonight, also
merging with a surface low over eastern Canada. By 00Z
precipitation is quickly ending as heights rise from as weak upper
ridging builds to the west. This ridge builds through Wednesday
with dry weather late this evening through Wednesday.
Warmer air continues to move into the region tonight through
Wednesday at the lower and mid levels. A dramatic warmup is
expected across the entire region as a westerly flow allows even
coastal areas to warm to well above seasonal normals.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak area of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will push a
cold front through the area Wednesday night. This front will then
head quickly back north as a warm front, moving through Thursday
afternoon.
Thereafter, there will be a prolonged period of southerly flow as
surface high pressure settles over the Western Atlantic. At the same
time, ridging aloft will mean rising heights and therefore, warming
temperatures, mainly for areas away from the coast. Closer to the
coast, flow off the cooler ocean waters will keep these areas a few
degrees cooler than inland. With a southerly flow, dewpoints will
also be on the rise. By the weekend, dewpoints could be in the lower
60s, making it slightly uncomfortable for some.
The 00Z ECMWF and the 00Z GFS are in better agreement on the passage
of a back door cold front late Saturday night into Sunday (quicker
than previously forecast). Thereafter, the 2 models differ. The GFS
continues to nose a strong high pressure from southeastern Canada
into the area, while the ECMWF keeps this high off the Atlantic
coast, and is weaker. Though the 00Z ECMWF does nose the high
pressure farther inland than the previous run. The GFS solution
would keep the area dry for the beginning of next week, while the
ECMWF would keep it unsettled. Due to the uncertainty, a blend of
models seems reasonable.
The cold frontal passages Wednesday night looks to come through dry
with limited moisture to work with. There may be some showers and
thunderstorms with the warm frontal passage on Thursday, mainly
inland as the lower temperatures over the coastal areas stabilizes
those areas. A thermal trough sets up over inland areas for Friday
and Saturday, which will mean diurnal showers and thunderstorms for
these areas. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible with
the backdoor cold front passage late Sunday into Sunday night. This
will not be a continuous rainfall event from Friday through Sunday
night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will pass through the terminals
through this evening. Will carry VCSH/VCTS in the 18Z TAFs through
this evening, but confidence on timing and coverage is low.
Generally a VFR forecast. Conds may briefly lower to MVFR in
SHRA/TSRA. In addition, MVFR VSBY possible in areas of BR late
tonight, mainly away from KNYC terminals.
Winds generally ranging from N to NW at 5-10 KT. Winds become
LGT/VRB this evening and tonight.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KISP TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Wednesday through Sunday...
.Wednesday through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Occasional MVFR in
showers/thunderstorms possible.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday as a weakening low south of Cape Cod tracks to the
northeast through tonight and high pressure builds in late tonight
and Wednesday.
The only hazard across the forecast waters will be isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening. Otherwise
no hazardous conditions are expected.
Winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria for the long term
with light a pressure gradient.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of less than 1/4 inch are expected for the rest
of today into this evening. Locally higher amounts will be
possible in isolated thunderstorms.
No concerns for hydrology Wednesday through Monday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...JM/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
147 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over southeast Long Island will bring scattered to
numerous showers across our region from the Capital District south
and east today with perhaps a rumble of afternoon thunder. Clouds
will keep temperatures a little less warm than yesterday. This
storm will move to our east tonight and high pressure will briefly
build in through early Wednesday. A weak front will bring some
showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the Capital region
Wednesday afternoon. After that, a large Bermuda high will take
hold of our weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 134 PM EDT...A closed off upper level low is located just
southeast of the region off the coast of southern New England to
the east of Long Island. Moisture wrapping around this feature
continues to allow for some showers. The bulk of these have been
occurring over southern Vermont and into adjacent Washington and
Rensselaer Counties New York. Some parts of southern Vermont have
seen locally around an inch of rainfall according to the latest
MRMS precip estimation.
Temps continue to vary from northwest to southeast across the area
this afternoon. Thanks to partly to mostly sunny skies, some
parts of the central/western Adirondacks have already reached into
the mid 70s, while southern and eastern areas seeing lots of
clouds remain only in the low 60s. Temps look to be fairly steady
for the afternoon hours, with the warmest readings in northwest
parts of the area. Most places from Albany on south/east won`t see
much sun for the remainder of the day.
The latest 16z 3km HRRR suggests that the threat for showers will
remain in the forecast for this afternoon, mainly for areas east
of the Hudson River. There might be enough instability with colder
temperatures aloft for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon,
although most areas won`t see any thunder. Will continue with just
a slight chance of thunder for much of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cutoff low is forecast to drift east of Cape Cod tonight taking
all the showers with it. Weak high pressure will build tonight
into early Wednesday with a return to sunshine and higher
temperatures back to 80-85 in the valleys, mid to upper 70s over
the higher elevations.
By afternoon, a weak back door front looks to slip southward into
the Adirondacks touching off some scattered showers and possibly
thunderstorms. One or two cells could make it south into the Capital
region and even northern Catskills.
A west to southwest wind 5-15 mph will become northwesterly during
the afternoon.
The front looks to washout by Wednesday night over the region as it
slides to our south. Wednesday night looks dry with perhaps a
little patchy fog as the wind will become light or calm overnight.
Thursday will start out dry, but with increasing moisture, and
perhaps a weak short wave, some scattered showers or thunderstorms
could develop by afternoon across the region. These will be hit and
miss with many areas likely not getting any rain at all.
Otherwise, temperatures will climb in the mid or upper 80s in the
valleys, 75-80 higher terrain. Dewpoints will reach the lower 60s in
the Hudson valley south of Albany, mid or upper 50s further north so
it will feel a little uncomfortably warm to some.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended forecast features above normal temperatures for the
holiday weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.
Friday-Friday night...the warm front finally moves through eastern
NY and western New England during this time frame. A warm and humid
air mass settles in...as dewpoints rise into the 60s. The boundary
will likely be in the vicinity of the forecast area...and a weak
short-wave in the west to southwest flow aloft will likely focus
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The latest GFS20
has modest SBCAPEs in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, but the amount of
deep shear remains uncertain. It is hard to ascertain if the
convection will be severe this far out. H850 temps rise to +14C to
+16C with highs in the lower to mid 80s in the valley
locations...and mid 70s to around 80F over the mountains. The
showers and thunderstorms should diminish quickly with the boundary
retreating northward and the daytime heating gone. Lows will be
upper 50s to lower 60s over most of the forecast area.
Saturday-Saturday Night...The subtropical high builds in from the
western Atlantic. The ALY forecast get into a warm sector. H850
temps nudge up to +15C to +17C on the latest ECMWF. PWATs increase
to 1-1.5 inches. The GFS model soundings do not look very capped.
Pop-up diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible
capable of heavy rainfall. The big question is the timing of the
backdoor cold front from Northern New England and southeast Canada.
The guidance varies on the timing and placement of the boundary. Our
forecast reflects a timing more Saturday night into Sunday. Highs
will be steamy for late May with humidity levels on the increase.
Highs will be mainly in the mid and upper 80s for elevations at 1000
ft or lower...and upper 70s to lower 80s over the mountains. A
slight to low chc of showers and thunderstorms will likely linger
most of the night as the backdoor cold front dips south/southwest
across the region.
Sunday into Memorial Day...Temps look a bit cooler...closer to
normal for late May on Sunday...as the backdoor cold front stalls
over central NY...eastern PA and northern NJ. The ECMWF has H850
temps fall back to +10C to +12C from east to west over the forecast
area...as the cold front moves through...and high pressure builds in
from New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. There will continue to be solid
chances of showers and thunderstorms as the cold front looks to move
through. The amount of instability available will be the main issue
for any strong to severe thunderstorms as the shear increases. This
will continue to be monitored over the next several days. Highs on
Sunday fall back into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Lows Sunday night
fall back into the 50s to lower 60s. Memorial Day will feature a
threat of a shower or thunderstorm...but it is uncertain where the
frontal boundary goes. The latest WPC guidance has it move north
into southern Quebec and Northern New England again. When a boundary
is in the area with light to moderate amounts of instability and
appreciable moisture...then a slight to low chc of showers and
thunderstorms...especially in the afternoon will persist through the
holiday weekend. Overall...it does not look like a washout at this
point. After lows Sunday night in the 50s...highs will likely be in
the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Still some spokes of precipitation rotating around the low
pressure system to our east. Have VCSH at all terminals for the
afternoon. Not out of the question that a terminal could drop to
MVFR conditions in a shower...or perhaps IFR...but chances are
slight. Slight chances for TSRA this afternoon as well...but not
sufficient to warrant mention in TAFs. So will maintain VFR at
all terminals this afternoon.
Question for tonight will be how much BR/FG form. All terminals
will clear out tonight. Winds will be light. Best chances for FG
are at KPSF where showers deposited around 0.2 inch of rain today.
Have also included IFR conditions at KGFL in BR. At KALB and
KPOU...MVFR in BR forecast.
After BR/FG clears /by 12Z-13Z/ VFR conditions will prevail all
terminals for Wednesday through 18z.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH levels should remain elevated today dropping not low than about
50 percent most places. There will be scattered to numerous showers
mainly from the Capital region south and eastward. Most areas will
likely not receive a quarter inch, except perhaps Litchfield county
into the Mid Hudson valley and southern Catskills.
The showers will move out tonight leaving us with a nearly fully
recovery and likely the formation of dew as the wind will be light.
Wednesday, will start out dry and sunny. A weak disturbance could
trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the
Capital region but a few could stray further south.
A full recovery tonight as the showers move out followed by warm
increasingly humid weather for the balance of the week.
Low pressure tracking close to southern New England will
scattered to numerous showers from the Capital region and perhaps
an afternoon thunderstorm to locations from the Capital Region
south and east. Weak high pressure will build east off the mid
Atlantic states and summer like weather will spread across our
region from the southwest through the end of next week.
The surface wind will be light out of the north or northeast through
Tuesday, generally 5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at 10 to
15 mph...with a few gusts near 20 mph possible in the afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.
Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms today. At this time amounts up to a tenth of an inch
in our northwestern zones, to quarter to half an inch in our
southeastern zones is anticipated. We do not expect this rainfall to
produce much if any rises on rivers streams and reservoirs.
There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...Frugis/HWJIV/OKeefe
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
238 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016
A weak trough moving through an unstable airmass over our area
tonight is expected to cause scattered showers and thunderstorms.
An upper level ridge will move into the area Thursday providing
fair weather. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s with highs
Thursday in the lower and middle 80s. It will remain warm and
humid through the Memorial Day weekend with chances for showers
and thunderstorms continuing... though most of the weekend should
be dry.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016
While ridging conts to dampen acrs the area...lack of discernible
forcing and as yet poor mstr rtn hampering any notable precip
dvlpmnt acrs the wrn lakes this aftn. MCV advg acrs nrn IA sprtg
an arc of isold-sct convn fm ern MN into ne IA and the primary ftr
of note shrt term as secondary MCV noted acrs se MO slides ewd
through srn IN/nrn KY. 12Z ILX raob alludes to a general hostile
environment aloft w/residual warm air in place although some
cooling does take place further west twd DVN ahd of apchg mid lvl
trough. Thus suspect newd advng ll theta-e ridge and wk ll flw
will fail to produce any convn this aftn and have dropped all pop
mention sans extreme west ahd of apchg mid lvl trough. Srn spoke
of btr low-mid lvl forcing shld graze nw zones this evening and
may yet sputter further se within modest theta-e ridge in place
hwvr any sense of a consensus model solution sorely lacking. As
such and in light of 12Z CAMS trends will sway fm prior likely
pops overnight as primary focus aloft shifts up acrs nrn WI.
In wake of this sys...largely subsident wrly ll flw overspreads the
area on Thu and in light of 12Z mos guidance/trends fail to see any
justification to carry a pop mention.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016
General wwd positioning of large scale upr trough and attendant
sfc fntl zone points to lackluster chcs for organized rainfall
through the pd. No doubt upstream convn w/potential downstream MCS
influences complicate the picture...hwvr given stgr mean flw and
deeper ll mstr plume remains well west invof of sfc fntl zone
through the cntrl plains...it would be careless to embrace
derived blended guidance pops which are clearly way overdone. Thus
as yda will again cap any one pd to a low chc mention at this
point. More fvrbl chcs may arise twd sun aftn/eve pending ewd
extent and timing of robust wave lifting up through the midwest.
Beyond that upr ridge cntrd ovr the wrn atl xpcd to expand nwd
through dy7 and likely to cap off the local environment as new mean
troughing dvlps through the wrn US. Otrws seasonably warm and humid
conds xpcd through much of the pd.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016
Moderate instability has developed over nrn IL this aftn along/ahead
of a wk shrtwv/sfc trof. This system expected to move across nrn
IN tonight. With just wk instability fcst across ne IN when the
shrtwv moves through, just mentioned showers at FWA tonight, with
contd mention of tstms at SBN where instability expected to be
greater. Low level moistening overnight expected to result in
brief mvfr cigs across the area Wed morning... mixing out by
midday.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...JT
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
101 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 218 AM EDT Wed May 25 2016
Upper disturbances and an increasing moist and unstable atmosphere
will combine to trigger thunderstorm chances today through early
next week.
Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal through the
period with highs mostly in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../Today and Tonight/
Issued at 1007 AM EDT Wed May 25 2016
Pulled pops back a bit this morning and gradually ramped them up
from midday onward per radar trends and HRRR input. Should see a
gradual increase in convective coverage approach from the west
this afternoon as the next upper level wave moves into the area
and diurnal heating/destabilization is maximized. Remainder of
forecast in good shape. Previous discussion follows.
Issued at 218 AM EDT Wed May 25 2016
Focus for the near term will be on thunderstorm chances as well as
temperatures.
Models continue to be in excellent agreement on the major players
with the 00z run.
Currently...showers and thunderstorms were well southwest of our
southwestern counties as a short wave slowly meanders over that
area. This feature could still touch off a few storms overnight in
that area and this morning a little further to the northeast.
However...the main feature today is expected to be another upper
wave moving through the southwest flow aloft...ejected northeast by
a southern California upper low. This upper disturbance should move
into our northwestern counties shortly after 21z per model
blend...including the RAP. This feature will interact with an
increasingly moist and unstable atmosphere...and modest 25 to 30
knot low level flow. Models are forecasting dew points in the lower
60s and mixed layer CAPEs to 1000 j/kg and higher this afternoon.
This should be enough to touch off scattered thunderstorms across
the forecast area. A few storms could be strong...but the SPC day1
outlook is keeping any severe risk just to our west in the even more
unstable air. The thunderstorms should continue through the night as
the upper wave moves through and with at least weak instability
after sunset and a 25 to 30 knot low level jet. Will keep likely
pops going far north...in closer proximity to the upper wave.
Elsewhere...good chance pops look good.
Should see plenty of convective clouds today but should still see
enough sunshine peaking through from time to time to allow
temperatures to reach the lower to mid 80s for afternoon highs.
Meanwhile...with decent cloud cover and southerly winds staying up
around 10 knots...prefer overnight lows at or slightly warmer than
00z MOS in the mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../Thursday through Friday night/
Issued at 218 AM EDT Wed May 25 2016
All eyes will continue to be on thunderstorm chances as the Socal
upper low continues to send upper disturbances our way in the
southwest flow aloft even as it moves to the Central Plains Friday
night. Models have been very consistent with this and also with a
modest but persistent moist Gulf flow through the Ohio Valley and
lower Great Lakes on the back side of a Bermuda High and ahead of a
slow moving to stalled Plains frontal system.
Next disturbance in the southwest wavetrain is harder to pick
out...but it looks like a weak impulse will move through the area
Thursday afternoon. As the wave is more subtle...only went with 40
percent pops. However...models are showing a very unstable
atmosphere with CAPES anywhere from 1500-3000 j/kg...depending on
the model. So...with that kind of potential energy...could see some
strong storms with a lot of cloud to ground lightning. Weaker
dynamics preclude organized severe threat...however.
After Thursday...the remainder of the forecast looks pretty much the
same. Although models have a harder time resolving any weak impulse
that far out...each period should see at least one weak wave and
with the atmosphere remaining moist and unstable...will keep 30-40
percent pops going the rest of the way.
It will remain warm and humid and with the air mass unchanged...will
go with a persistence forecast with highs in the mid 80s and lows in
the mid and upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /Saturday through next Tuesday/...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed May 25 2016
Ensembles in good agreement with respect to the overall pattern
during the extended. Mean ridging expected over the eastern parts
of the country with troughing over the west.
An upper disturbance is expected to eject into the western Great
Lakes over the upcoming weekend. Will keep chance PoPs in the
forecast for Saturday and Sunday to cover the passage of this
trough.
By early next week, convective potential may tend to diminish and
become more diurnal in nature as heights rise some, however
ensembles suggest a weakness in the upper ridge/cool pocket may
linger over the Ohio valley. For this reason, will continue to
keep some PoPs going through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 251800z tafs/...
Issued at 1251 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016
Mainly VFR conditions are expected this TAF period. Brief MVFR
conditions will be possible with any TSRA that may occur this
afternoon and evening.
GFS suggests a weak short wave over Illinois to progress across
indiana late this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings
suggest steep lapse rates with large CAPE. Thus expect sct TSRA to
develop along and ahead of the wave during the max heating hours
this afternoon and evening. Uncertainty remains with precise
timing and will update to prevailing as showers and storms
develop.
Patchy Fog may be possible late tonight...particularly in those
areas that get rain. Have included MVFR fog at the TAF sites for
now. A lull in convective activity is expected on Thursday morning
as Indiana should remain between short waves. Time heights
suggest subsidence and forecast soundings are capped through at
least 18z.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
101 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
At 4 AM Wednesday morning, a large thunderstorm complex continued to
progress east out of the area. A well-developed MCV was present in
northern parts of this storm complex over far SE Nebraska while a
wake low has developed on the back side. This wake low has been
producing gusts up to 50 mph and will continue to do so as it moves
east although it would seem likely to be near its peak intensity
right now. Additional convective showers and storms were developing
in the convergence zone into east central KS, but this area has been
well worked over and do not anticipate anything more than a few
pockets of heavy rain in this area. Another area of thunderstorms
has been persistently developing in association with the LLJ near
the KS/NE border in north central KS. This area of development is
likely to gradually push a weak cold pool a bit south with
development progressively into northern and northeast KS. However,
it will also be making its way into an area of lesser instability
with the effective convective overturning from early this morning,
and expect the storm development to be sub-severe and any associated
outflow likely not very strong.
As the day goes on, the forecast will once again be complex but
there are at least a few moderate confidence elements to grasp on to
in making the forecast. The first is the outflow incoming from the
north which should set up east to west across the area and then wash
out by mid to late afternoon...although some semblance of it may
remain through late day. The second feature of interest has been
consistently forecast by models over the past few days, and that is a
slightly veered flow owing to the passage of a rather strong short
wave early this morning. This veered flow will cause the dryline to
surge east with a dryline bulge into eastern KS. Most indications
are that this dryline bulge will focus into the local forecast area,
probably over the Flint Hills region just west of Emporia and south
of Manhattan. An area of surface low pressure is also expected to
develop into this area. So, as the afternoon progresses, expect
effective heating to lead to a rather unstable airmass across the
forecast area. This instability is likely to be capped for much of
the day though as those veered winds aloft will bring a slightly
stronger EML into the local area.
What this all leads to is a conditional forecast for severe
thunderstorms. The main question will be if the cap can be broken
with only nebulous large scale lifting mechanisms (and even some
potential for weak subsidence aloft), and only modest convergence
along the dryline. IF thunderstorms are able to develop, it would be
in a very unstable environment with effective shear in the 35-40 kt
range which would be more than sufficient for supercells. It also
seems that if storms develop they would remain relatively discrete
owing to the convective inhibition, and would probably not develop
until peak heating. Thus, any storms that are able to develop can be
expected to become severe with very large hail and locally damaging
winds possible. Veered low level winds are not particularly
supportive of tornadoes, but the potential of a weak remnant outflow
boundary along with localized backing depending on the strength of
the surface meso-low in central KS means there is at least some
tornado potential with any long-lived supercell structures. The best
chance for initiation would be along the nose of that dryline bulge
with storm motion being almost due east.
Later tonight, convective coverage is in question, and it may focus
an area of development over far northeast KS where the LLJ
convergence maximizes in an unstable airmass. If this occurs, could
see areas of heavy rain as well as a continued severe weather threat
through the overnight hours.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
Main focus for the period in terms of severe weather chances reside
on Thursday afternoon and then on Friday afternoon as the open
trough axis lifts through the central plains. Exact details on
location and timing of convection is still uncertain and dependent
on Wednesday night convection and how quickly it clears which
currently appears during the morning hours. With the system becoming
more negatively tilted during the afternoon on Thursday, winds aloft
are expected to increase while sfc winds back towards the south and
southeast as the sfc low stretches across central KS. The dryline is
the likely trigger for convection to fire in
central KS by late afternoon. These storms are expected to track
eastward towards north central KS during the evening. Second area
for possible convection is along the expected outflow boundary
draped over the area from previous convection. With ample moisture
and available CAPE in excess of 4000 J/KG, it will not take much
forcing to initiate development. By the evening, LLJ increases with
a cluster of storms to center around the warm front near the KS and
NE border. These storms are likely to impact much of the area as the
low level jet veers overnight. Main threats are large hail and
damaging winds. Tornadoes are possible as well,
especially with any discrete cells or in vicinity to a boundary
through early evening. Localized flash flooding is likely given
the excessive rainfall these past few days.
By Friday, upper level dynamics increases as the trough lifts over
central KS, becoming more stacked with the sfc low and attendant
dryline. The dryline is expected to shift east into the CWA,
creating another a decent chance for thunderstorms to develop in the
late afternoon and evening. Shear profiles are sufficient to once
again see all modes of severe weather with decent low level shear
profiles in the early evening near the sfc low over north central
KS.
Highlights for the weekend into mid next week do not change much
from previous forecasts. As upper trough exits northeast Saturday
afternoon, could see additional storms in afternoon. Severe weather
is unlikely as effective shear is pretty weak, less than 20 kts.
Similar scenario is likely from Sunday onward as broad
southwest troughing continues to bring disturbances into the area.
Flash Flooding and River Flooding threats are very high through the
weekend. Rainfall totals through the weekend range from 1-4 inches
or more through Sunday. With little change in airmass, scattered
thunderstorms are possible for each period until perhaps Wednesday
when a cool front may finally bring a relief from the rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
Outflow boundary from earlier thunderstorms along the Kansas river
at noon time, very near TAF sites. Ceilings should rise to VFR
shortly, while winds could be variable for the next 2 or 3 hours,
particularly at TOP and FOE before the boundary moves back north.
Isolated thunderstorms developing over central KS late this
afternoon may move through or near TAF sites by early evening so
have VCTS for a few hours during that time. Later tonight, moist
airmass could allow fog to form.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...GDP
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1247 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016
Numerous thunderstorms containing torrential rains continue across
Butler, Cowley & Elk Counties at 230 AM where Flood & Flash Flood
Warnings are in effect. Thunderstorms are being sustained by strong
lower-deck theta-e advection enhanced by lift induced by mid-level
shortwave sprinting NE across SE KS. Hourly rainfalls are in the 1
to 3 inch range in extreme Ern Sumner & NW Cowley Counties. The
cloud-to-ground lightning continues to be frequent & dangerous.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016
Forecast Highlight:
More severe thunderstorms possible for SE KS this afternoon & this
evening.
Significant threat for severe thunderstorms with large-very large
hail, winds around 70 mph & tornadoes continues for areas primarily
along & W of I35-I/135 Thu Afternoon & Night.
Today & Tonight:
With the afore-mentioned mid-level shortwave continuing to sprint
NE across the Mid & Upr MS Valley thunderstorms would be greatest
across SE KS where aligned with broad ultra-high octane moisture
axis. Deep-layer shear, more so directional, remains impressive &
with very high instability there`s a continued threat for severe
thunderstorms for SE KS both this afternoon & tonight.
Thu & Thu Night:
The greatest threat for significant severe thunderstorms is still
expected for areas along, and W, of I-35/I-135. A deep upper-deck
trof that`ll push slowly E across AZ & NM will undergo cyclogenesis
as it lifts SLOWLY NE to NE NM, the TX & OK Panhandles & the CO/KS
border. This would induce increased deep-layer ascent over the Wrn
Plains that would transition E toward Central KS. The slow NE lift
of the upper low would of course induce pronounced sfc cyclogenesis
over SE CO & Wrn KS on Thu. This would strengthen the lower-mid
level moist advection across KS with the most pronounced advection
targeting Central parts of OK & KS. This time deep-layer speed
shear would be strong & coupled with respectable directional shear
supercells would once erupt over these areas & move NE. The
supercells should arrive areas along & W of I-35/I-135 late Thu
Afternoon & continue thru the night. SPC has expanded the "Enhanced
Risk" N as far as Srn Nebraska. As such "Severe Thunderstorms With
Large Hail And Damaging Winds" have been assigned to the afore-
mentioned areas.
Fri & Fri Night:
The threat for severe thunderstorms is beginning to increase Fri
Afternoon & Evening. The greatest severe threat would shift slowly
E. For now SPC has assigned "Slight Risk" to E TX & SE OK, but
wouldn`t be surprised if the "Slight Risk" assignment is eventually
spread N across Central & Ern KS. Stay tuned.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016
For Sat & Sat Night the GFS & ECMWF continue to agree quite well
with overall pattern, although the ECMWF is bit stronger with the
departing upper-deck shortwave, scheduled to reach the Upper MS
Valley Sat Night. A 2nd upper-deck trof is forecast to move E &
like it`s predecessor it`ll move slowly E & strengthen as it digs
across Srn CA. A "lead" shortwave will eject NE, likely reaching
Wrn OK & Wrn KS Sun Afternoon. As such, there`ll be several rounds
of thunderstorms from Sun Afternoon thru next Tue.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016
convective potential is the main challenge. Anticipate conditions
will improve to vfr at all sites early this afternoon. Thunderstorms
possible in the vicinity of KSLN/KHUT/kgdb/KICT late afternoon/early
evening near dryline/outflow boundary. KCNU looks to remain well
into the stable area of the outflow boundary. Suspect thunderstorms
will be primarily focused by surface convergence. Given soupy
airmasss, anticipate MVFR/IFR conditions to return later tonight.
-Howerton
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 89 70 87 67 / 10 10 40 50
Hutchinson 89 67 87 66 / 10 10 50 50
Newton 89 69 86 66 / 20 20 40 50
ElDorado 88 70 86 67 / 20 20 30 50
Winfield-KWLD 89 71 87 67 / 20 10 40 50
Russell 89 61 88 62 / 20 10 40 50
Great Bend 89 61 88 63 / 10 10 50 40
Salina 90 67 89 66 / 20 20 40 50
McPherson 89 68 87 66 / 20 10 40 50
Coffeyville 86 71 86 68 / 50 20 30 50
Chanute 86 71 86 67 / 40 20 30 50
Iola 85 71 86 67 / 50 20 30 60
Parsons-KPPF 86 71 86 68 / 50 20 30 50
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...PJH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1139 AM MDT WED MAY 25 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016
With low cloud deck still impacting central portions of the
forecast area...have lowered expected high temps by a few degrees
to account for the lack of decreasing areal coverage. No other
changes at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016
Upper flow will be southwest today/tonight ahead of an upper low
that will move into the 4-corners areas Thursday. The upper low
will move into eastern Colorado Thursday night. The low then moves
into northwest Kansas Friday and into north central Kansas Friday
night. A surface trough will be over northwest Kansas today and
tonight. A surface low will organize over southeast Colorado
Thursday. The surface low will move into northwest Kansas Friday
and then into north central kansas Friday night.
Subsidence will move into the fa this morning behind the exiting
wave. By this afternoon, some lift will develop over an axis of
instability where there will be a slight chance of storms.
Any storms will move northeast with subsidence returning to the fa
early this evening. Late this evening another shortwave will
produce some lift across the northern fa for storms overnight.
Storms will be possible early Thursday and continue Thursday night
and Friday. Dynamics and moisture favor the northwest fa during
this time. By Friday night the focus for storms shifts over the
eastern fa as the low moves east. Shear and cape are both supportive
of severe storms through Friday. Shear and cape drop off Friday
night so that there should be no severe threat and that thunder will
be isolated with showers the dominant type of weather.
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE MOVED INTO THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH POINTS OUT THE EXTENT OF THE STRATUS ACROSS
THE FA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.
Max temperatures should reach the lower 80s today. Cooler readings
can be expected Thursday ranging from the lower 70s in eastern
Colorado to the lower 80s in the eastern fa. Max temperatures Friday
should range from the mid 60s to the mid 70s. Min temperatures
should be in the lower to mid 50s with some upper 40s in eastern
Colorado.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016
At the start of the extended mid level ridging will allow for
periods of dry conditions heading into Saturday. Starting Saturday
night and going through the end of the extended period, expect an
increase chance of rain showers and thunderstorms as shortwaves
will move around the base of approaching upper level low over the
Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies area.
Temperatures will be in the near to above normal range during the
extended period with highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s, with some
areas reaching the lower 80s. Overnight lows will range in the 50s
with some upper 40s in Northeastern Colorado.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016
For KGLD...Mainly VFR conditions after 20z-21z. MVFR skies thru
20z-21z...and 3-5sm -shra br from 04z-08z Thursday.
Winds...Variable from the NW thru 21z then SSE 5-10kts...becoming
ENE around 5kts by 08z Thursday as front approaches.
For KMCK...Mainly VFR conditions...w/ some MVFR from 04z-09z
thursday w/ 3-5sm -shra br. Winds ESE around 10kts thru 00z
Thursday...then ENE 5-10kts.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
712 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
...updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016
Quiet weather is likely in southwest Kansas today after the major
severe weather outbreak Tuesday afternoon and evening. An outflow
boundary from the convective cluster in eastern Kansas extended
from south of Medicine Lodge across southwest Kansas into east
central Colorado early this morning, and an area of surface low
pressure was centered near the Colorado/Kansas border south of
GLD. A vigorous upper level trough was evident on satellite
imagery from eastern Montana into eastern Colorado at 08Z. The
surface low should move east into north central Kansas as the
upper level trough progresses into the eastern Dakotas later
today, and low level flow will become southwest as the convective
outflow erodes this morning. Low level moisture will erode during
the day, and a dryline will become established across central
Kansas this afternoon. A minor upper level trough approaching the
Four Corners area will move into northwest Kansas and southern
Nebraska this afternoon, and a few thunderstorms may develop in
the richer low level moisture north of the surface cyclone in
northern Kansas. Other thunderstorms can be expected near the
dryline across central Kansas.
Downslope flow, clearing skies and drier low level air will allow
temperatures this afternoon to rise into the 80s and lower 90s
with the warmest temperatures in the southwest corner of the
state. Temperatures will be modulated downward slightly in areas
that received heavy rainfall Tuesday as a consequence of
evaporation of ponded water. Mostly clear skies and relatively dry
air will allow temperatures tonight to fall back to near seasonal
averages in the 50s and lower 60s.
An upper level cyclone centered near the coast of southern
California this morning will eject northeast as another upper
level trough near the British Columbia coast drops into the
western United States long wave position. This upper level cyclone
should reach eastern Colorado Friday morning. Surface cyclogenesis
will occur in southeast Colorado Thursday as the upper level
cyclone approaches, and low level flow in western Kansas will back
and increase as pressures fall in southeast Colorado. Low level
moisture will surge back into southwest Kansas, but some
uncertainty exists about exactly where the dryline will become
established Thursday afternoon. The current guidance suggests that
the rich low level moisture will spread back at least as far west
as Dodge City. Increasing mid and upper level flow over the rich
moisture east of the dryline will provide an environment favorable
for development of supercell thunderstorms with all of the
attendant severe weather phenomena again Thursday, especially from
Dodge City east. Mesoscale details will become better defined
later, but the potential exists for another outbreak of severe
weather with a few tornadoes Thursday afternoon and evening.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016
The upper level cyclone that moves into eastern Colorado Friday
morning will progress slowly across western Kansas into eastern
Nebraska by Saturday morning. The GFS is quicker to eject the
upper level cyclone than the ECMWF and GEM. Given the very blocky
pattern with an upper level cyclone in central Canada, the slower
solution advertised by the ECMWF seems more reasonable. A diffuse
surface cyclone should move slowly into central Kansas Friday
afternoon with a weak Pacific cold front extending into the Texas
Panhandle. Cold air aloft with the upper level cyclone will
provide sufficient instability for thunderstorm development across
much of Kansas Friday. Temperature Friday will be cooler as a
consequence of cloud cover wrapping around the surface cyclone.
Weak ridging behind the upper level trough should keep Saturday
quiet, but another upper level trough rotating around the western
United States mean long wave trough will approach Kansas on Sunday
and support more thunderstorms. Another minor trough should
approach on Monday. Weaker flow should reduce the potential for
significant severe weather, but there may be some threat of severe
weather each day.
Upper level ridging should build over the Rockies the first part
of next week, and a cold front will move across Kansas Tuesday or
Tuesday night as a progressive upper level trough moves across the
Northern Plains and digs toward the Great Lakes. There may be a
few days of meteorologically benign weather next week with north
to northwest anticyclonic flow aloft over the High Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 707 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016
Fog development at DDC and GCK should rapidly diminish this
morning as the surface warms. VFR can then be expected for the
rest of the TAF period once the thin stratus layer also
completely erodes. Convection is not expected today as the dryline
advances further east.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 424 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016
Widespread rainfall estimated by radar to be from three to five
inches in northern Pratt and southern Stafford Counties likely has
resulted in considerable ponding of surface water. Law enforcement
has not reported any significant problems with runoff, and the
soil in that area is sandy and should absorb much of the water. An
areal flood warning will be maintained this morning.
Other heavy rainfall occurred from Edwards County into Pawnee
County and in eastern Lane and western Ness Counties. Although
some small streams likely will be running high, major flooding is
unlikely.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 89 57 88 57 / 0 10 40 40
GCK 90 52 88 53 / 0 10 20 30
EHA 90 54 86 51 / 0 0 10 20
LBL 91 54 89 54 / 0 10 20 20
HYS 87 57 85 60 / 0 0 40 40
P28 90 66 88 64 / 0 0 30 40
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ruthi
LONG TERM...Ruthi
AVIATION...Russell
HYDROLOGY...Ruthi
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
658 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016
Numerous thunderstorms containing torrential rains continue across
Butler, Cowley & Elk Counties at 230 AM where Flood & Flash Flood
Warnings are in effect. Thunderstorms are being sustained by strong
lower-deck theta-e advection enhanced by lift induced by mid-level
shortwave sprinting NE across SE KS. Hourly rainfalls are in the 1
to 3 inch range in extreme Ern Sumner & NW Cowley Counties. The
cloud-to-ground lightning continues to be frequent & dangerous.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016
Forecast Highlight:
More severe thunderstorms possible for SE KS this afternoon & this
evening.
Significant threat for severe thunderstorms with large-very large
hail, winds around 70 mph & tornadoes continues for areas primarily
along & W of I35-I/135 Thu Afternoon & Night.
Today & Tonight:
With the afore-mentioned mid-level shortwave continuing to sprint
NE across the Mid & Upr MS Valley thunderstorms would be greatest
across SE KS where aligned with broad ultra-high octane moisture
axis. Deep-layer shear, more so directional, remains impressive &
with very high instability there`s a continued threat for severe
thunderstorms for SE KS both this afternoon & tonight.
Thu & Thu Night:
The greatest threat for significant severe thunderstorms is still
expected for areas along, and W, of I-35/I-135. A deep upper-deck
trof that`ll push slowly E across AZ & NM will undergo cyclogenesis
as it lifts SLOWLY NE to NE NM, the TX & OK Panhandles & the CO/KS
border. This would induce increased deep-layer ascent over the Wrn
Plains that would transition E toward Central KS. The slow NE lift
of the upper low would of course induce pronounced sfc cyclogenesis
over SE CO & Wrn KS on Thu. This would strengthen the lower-mid
level moist advection across KS with the most pronounced advection
targeting Central parts of OK & KS. This time deep-layer speed
shear would be strong & coupled with respectable directional shear
supercells would once erupt over these areas & move NE. The
supercells should arrive areas along & W of I-35/I-135 late Thu
Afternoon & continue thru the night. SPC has expanded the "Enhanced
Risk" N as far as Srn Nebraska. As such "Severe Thunderstorms With
Large Hail And Damaging Winds" have been assigned to the afore-
mentioned areas.
Fri & Fri Night:
The threat for severe thunderstorms is beginning to increase Fri
Afternoon & Evening. The greatest severe threat would shift slowly
E. For now SPC has assigned "Slight Risk" to E TX & SE OK, but
wouldn`t be surprised if the "Slight Risk" assignment is eventually
spread N across Central & Ern KS. Stay tuned.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016
For Sat & Sat Night the GFS & ECMWF continue to agree quite well
with overall pattern, although the ECMWF is bit stronger with the
departing upper-deck shortwave, scheduled to reach the Upper MS
Valley Sat Night. A 2nd upper-deck trof is forecast to move E &
like it`s predecessor it`ll move slowly E & strengthen as it digs
across Srn CA. A "lead" shortwave will eject NE, likely reaching
Wrn OK & Wrn KS Sun Afternoon. As such, there`ll be several rounds
of thunderstorms from Sun Afternoon thru next Tue.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016
Expect some scattered MVFR CIGS in the wake of the overnight
convective complex. This will lead to some of the lowest CIGS near
KRSL, KGBD and KRSL. Expect the low clouds to dissipate later this
morning with VFR conditions returning to most locations for the
afternoon hours. Will also see some lingering SHRA/TSRA in SE KS as
the complex of storms exits the area this morning.
For the afternoon hours, expect a dry line/boundary to push to near
the KS Turnpike late this afternoon. Could see isolated convection
develop along and east of this boundary for the late afternoon and
evening hours. Think most of the convection will develop well to the
east of the KICT TAF, so will not mention it in KICT just yet. But
will mention it for most of the evening hours for the KCNU Taf with
the isolated storms expected to congeal into a forward propagating
complex of storms that will move east into Wrn MO early on Thu.
Ketcham
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 89 70 87 67 / 10 10 40 50
Hutchinson 89 67 87 66 / 10 10 50 50
Newton 89 69 86 66 / 20 20 40 50
ElDorado 88 70 86 67 / 20 20 30 50
Winfield-KWLD 89 71 87 67 / 20 10 40 50
Russell 89 61 88 62 / 20 10 40 50
Great Bend 89 61 88 63 / 10 10 50 40
Salina 90 67 89 66 / 20 20 40 50
McPherson 89 68 87 66 / 20 10 40 50
Coffeyville 86 71 86 68 / 50 20 30 50
Chanute 86 71 86 67 / 40 20 30 50
Iola 85 71 86 67 / 50 20 30 60
Parsons-KPPF 86 71 86 68 / 50 20 30 50
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...BDK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
516 AM MDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016
Upper flow will be southwest today/tonight ahead of an upper low
that will move into the 4-corners areas Thursday. The upper low
will move into eastern Colorado Thursday night. The low then moves
into northwest Kansas Friday and into northcentral Kansas Friday
night. A surface trough will be over northwest Kansas today and
tonight. A surface low will organize over southeast Colorado
Thursday. The surface low will move into northwest Kansas Friday
and then into northcentral kansas Friday night.
Subsidence will move into the fa this morning behind the exiting
wave. By this afternoon, some lift will develop over an axis of
instability where there will be a slight chance of storms.
Any storms will move northeast with subsidence returning to the fa
early this evening. Late this evening another shortwave will
produce some lift across the northern fa for storms overnight.
Storms will be possible early Thursday and continue Thursday night
and Friday. Dynamics and moisture favor the northwest fa during
this time. By Friday night the focus for storms shifts over the
eastern fa as the low moves east. Shear and cape are both supportive
of severe storms through Friday. Shear and cape drop off Friday
night so that there should be no severe threat and that thunder will
be isolated with showers the dominant type of weather.
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE MOVED INTO THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH POINTS OUT THE EXTENT OF THE STRATUS ACROSS
THE FA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.
Max temperatures should reach the lower 80s today. Cooler readings
can be expected Thursday ranging from the lower 70s in eastern
Colorado to the lower 80s in the eastern fa. Max temperatures Friday
should range from the mid 60s to the mid 70s. Min temperatures
should be in the lower to mid 50s with some upper 40s in eastern
Colorado.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016
At the start of the extended mid level ridging will allow for
periods of dry conditions heading into Saturday. Starting Saturday
night and going through the end of the extended period, expect an
increase chance of rainshowers and thunderstroms as shortwaves will
move around the base of approaching upper level low over the Pacific
Northwest/Northern Rockies area.
Temperatures will be in the near to above normal range during the
extended period with highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s, with some
areas reaching the lower 80s. Overnight lows will range in the 50s
with some upper 40s in Northeastern Colorado.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 508 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016
LIFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND 15Z AS WINDS
TURN NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR AT KGLD AND
KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS AT
KMCK THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...FS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
350 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016
Numerous thunderstorms containing torrential rains continue across
Butler, Cowley & Elk Counties at 230 AM where Flood & Flash Flood
Warnings are in effect. Thunderstorms are being sustained by strong
lower-deck theta-e advection enhanced by lift induced by mid-level
shortwave sprinting NE across SE KS. Hourly rainfalls are in the 1
to 3 inch range in extreme Ern Sumner & NW Cowley Counties. The
cloud-to-ground lightning continues to be frequent & dangerous.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016
Forecast Highlight:
More severe thunderstorms possible for SE KS this afternoon & this
evening.
Significant threat for severe thunderstorms with large-very large
hail, winds around 70 mph & tornadoes continues for areas primarily
along & W of I35-I/135 Thu Afternoon & Night.
Today & Tonight:
With the afore-mentioned mid-level shortwave continuing to sprint
NE across the Mid & Upr MS Valley thunderstorms would be greatest
across SE KS where aligned with broad ultra-high octane moisture
axis. Deep-layer shear, more so directional, remains impressive &
with very high instability there`s a continued threat for severe
thunderstorms for SE KS both this afternoon & tonight.
Thu & Thu Night:
The greatest threat for significant severe thunderstorms is still
expected for areas along, and W, of I-35/I-135. A deep upper-deck
trof that`ll push slowly E across AZ & NM will undergo cyclogenesis
as it lifts SLOWLY NE to NE NM, the TX & OK Panhandles & the CO/KS
border. This would induce increased deep-layer ascent over the Wrn
Plains that would transition E toward Central KS. The slow NE lift
of the upper low would of course induce pronounced sfc cyclogenesis
over SE CO & Wrn KS on Thu. This would strengthen the lower-mid
level moist advection across KS with the most pronounced advection
targeting Central parts of OK & KS. This time deep-layer speed
shear would be strong & coupled with respectable directional shear
supercells would once erupt over these areas & move NE. The
supercells should arrive areas along & W of I-35/I-135 late Thu
Afternoon & continue thru the night. SPC has expanded the "Enhanced
Risk" N as far as Srn Nebraska. As such "Severe Thunderstorms With
Large Hail And Damaging Winds" have been assigned to the afore-
mentioned areas.
Fri & Fri Night:
The threat for severe thunderstorms is beginning to increase Fri
Afternoon & Evening. The greatest severe threat would shift slowly
E. For now SPC has assigned "Slight Risk" to E TX & SE OK, but
wouldn`t be surprised if the "Slight Risk" assignment is eventually
spread N across Central & Ern KS. Stay tuned.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016
For Sat & Sat Night the GFS & ECMWF continue to agree quite well
with overall pattern, although the ECMWF is bit stronger with the
departing upper-deck shortwave, scheduled to reach the Upper MS
Valley Sat Night. A 2nd upper-deck trof is forecast to move E &
like it`s predecessor it`ll move slowly E & strengthen as it digs
across Srn CA. A "lead" shortwave will eject NE, likely reaching
Wrn OK & Wrn KS Sun Afternoon. As such, there`ll be several rounds
of thunderstorms from Sun Afternoon thru next Tue.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016
Evolving mesoscale convective system over central Kansas will
move east overnight with brief periods of IFR/MVFR VSBYS in
heavy rain and strong, gusty winds. Some MVFR CIGS can also
be expected Wednesday morning. A moist south to southeast wind
will continue on Wednesday and become gusty along and east of
the I-135 corridor. Some late day convection is also possible
though probably more isolated in nature.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 89 70 87 67 / 10 10 40 50
Hutchinson 89 67 87 66 / 10 10 50 50
Newton 89 69 86 66 / 20 20 40 50
ElDorado 88 70 86 67 / 20 20 30 50
Winfield-KWLD 89 71 87 67 / 20 10 40 50
Russell 89 61 88 62 / 20 10 40 50
Great Bend 89 61 88 63 / 10 10 50 40
Salina 90 67 89 66 / 20 20 40 50
McPherson 89 68 87 66 / 20 10 40 50
Coffeyville 86 71 86 68 / 50 20 30 50
Chanute 86 71 86 67 / 40 20 30 50
Iola 85 71 86 67 / 50 20 30 60
Parsons-KPPF 86 71 86 68 / 50 20 30 50
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...KED
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
246 AM MDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016
Upper flow will be southwest today/tonight ahead of an upper low
that will move into the 4-corners areas Thursday. The upper low
will move into eastern Colorado Thursday night. The low then moves
into northwest Kansas Friday and into northcentral Kansas Friday
night. A surface trough will be over northwest Kansas today and
tonight. A surface low will organize over southeast Colorado
Thursday. The surface low will move into northwest Kansas Friday
and then into northcentral kansas Friday night.
Subsidence will move into the fa this morning behind the exiting
wave. By this afternoon, some lift will develop over an axis of
instability where there will be a slight chance of storms.
Any storms will move northeast with subsidence returning to the fa
early this evening. Late this evening another shortwave will
produce some lift across the northern fa for storms overnight.
Storms will be possible early Thursday and continue Thursday night
and Friday. Dynamics and moisture favor the northwest fa during
this time. By Friday night the focus for storms shifts over the
eastern fa as the low moves east. Shear and cape are both supportive
of severe storms through Friday. Shear and cape drop off Friday
night so that there should be no severe threat and that thunder will
be isolated with showers the dominant type of weather.
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE MOVED INTO THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH POINTS OUT THE EXTENT OF THE STRATUS ACROSS
THE FA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.
Max temperatures should reach the lower 80s today. Cooler readings
can be expected Thursday ranging from the lower 70s in eastern
Colorado to the lower 80s in the eastern fa. Max temperatures Friday
should range from the mid 60s to the mid 70s. Min temperatures
should be in the lower to mid 50s with some upper 40s in eastern
Colorado.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016
At the start of the extended mid level ridging will allow for
periods of dry conditions heading into Saturday. Starting Saturday
night and going through the end of the extended period, expect an
increase chance of rainshowers and thunderstroms as shortwaves will
move around the base of approaching upper level low over the Pacific
Northwest/Northern Rockies area.
Temperatures will be in the near to above normal range during the
extended period with highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s, with some
areas reaching the lower 80s. Overnight lows will range in the 50s
with some upper 40s in Northeastern Colorado.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016
For KGLD...vfr conditions expected through 8z with winds from the
southeast at 10 mph quickly shifting to the southwest. From 9z
through 14z stratus expected with visibilities possibly down to
2sm creating mvfr conditions with winds from the west then
northwest under 10 mph. Cigs improve to vfr by 15z with only a few
clouds at best for the rest of the taf period. Winds expected from
the north 5-10kts around 18z then back all the way around to the
east-southeast for the remainder of the taf period.
For KMCK...vfr conditions expected through 7z with cigs and vis
lowering to mvfr/ifr range through 13z with winds light from the
east. As winds switch around to the northwest cigs improve to vfr
and continue through the rest of the period. Surface winds
generally variable at speeds around 5kts or so.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
125 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
...Updated Aviation Section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016
Focus in the short term is severe weather tonight. Satellite shows cumulus
across southwest Kansas. Sfc analysis shows an old outflow boundary
moving north across the forecast district and a dryline farther to the
southwest. We launched at 19Z special sounding. There is plenty of SBCAPE
with values over 4000 J/kg. The sounding did show a significant cap
in place, but this should erode over time with continued sfc heating.
Wind shear is supportive for supercells with 38 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear
and 21 kt of 0-1 km shear for tornadoes. The 12Z 4 km NAM showed intense
supercells across southwest Kansas with significant updraft helicity.
The HRRR is showing the same thing, although differs in location of
the storms. Convection should form along the boundary across southwest
Kansas (probably from Garden City down to Meade) and then move to the
east through this evening. Threats will include tornadoes (some of which
could be strong), giant hail of 3-4", and outflow winds as the system
could form into a line later on in the evening. The central zones are
most under the gun as far as severe weather is concerned.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016
The next chance for storms in on Thursday as a wave moves out. Severe
weather is possible once again during the afternoon and evening. The
best chance of storms will be across the eastern zones. Beyond this
we may see another chance of storms next weekend. Temperatures through
the extended period will be on the warm to near normal side.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016
An outflow boundary from the large convective cluster in central
and eastern Kansas extended from west central Kansas into
northwest Oklahoma at 06Z, and widespread ceilings near 025 can be
expected through at least 08Z. As the outflow erodes later
tonight. flow above the boundary layer will become southwest in
response to falling pressures in the northern plains, and the
stratus should erode before sunrise. Southwest low level winds
around 10 kts will prevail during the daylight hours, and dry air
is likely to spread across all of southwest Kansas. A few cumulus
clouds with bases near 060 should form in the afternoon,
especially near HYS. Thunderstorms today should remain east of the
TAF sites.
Low level dry air will persist Wednesday night at TAF sites,
although low level moisture will spread back west quickly on
Thursday. VFR conditions are expected through at least Thursday
afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 89 57 87 / 70 0 0 20
GCK 58 90 52 87 / 40 0 0 20
EHA 53 90 52 86 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 56 91 54 89 / 20 0 0 10
HYS 56 87 57 85 / 70 0 0 50
P28 65 90 66 88 / 70 0 0 50
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Ruthi