Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/22/16

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1048 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the Virginia coast will lift northeast of our
region through the day Sunday. However, a second offshore low is
expected to develop by Monday, before lifting away from the region
on Tuesday. A ridge will build over our region mid week. By Friday,
the ridge is expected to shift east as another low begins to slide
over the Great Plains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Surface low pressure located off the Delmarva coast this evening
will continue to move northeastward through tonight. A mid/upper
trough to our west will continue to send several vorticity
impulses across the area tonight as well. One is moving through
early this evening which has led to an increase in some moderate
to at times heavy rainfall from the I-95/295 corridor
north and westward. We`ve increased pops significantly in this
area through the evening hours, then lower them through the night
as precipitation may become more showery overnight. Also added
drizzle and fog across southern portions of New Jersey, as well as
the Delmarva.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The upper level low pressure system that will be to our northwest
will drop southward on Sunday. The 12z GFS/CMC/UKMET are a bit
further west than the 12Z ECMWF with this feature. With this
forecast package, we opted to go with a slightly more west track of
the low. This could potentially keep the highest coverage of showers
across Eastern Pennsylvania throughout the day. The areal coverage of
showers looks to be of a diurnal nature as low level lapse rates
steepen (instability mechanism) to increase the coverage by the
afternoon. Rainfall amounts are going to be light but a continued
low freezing level around 10,000 feet may result in a few showers
containing pea size hail in the afternoon hours. Coverage of
hail looks to low to place in forecast attm.

The track of the low will also effect the high temperatures. A
further east and cloudier ECMWF keeps highs down in the low and mid
60`s for most. On the other hand, A further west low track would
allow for breaks of sunshine and a chance at 70 degrees for Delaware
and New Jersey.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Monday through Tuesday...As the upper level short wave trough digs
and intensifies over the Mid Atlantic, a surface low will
subsequently develop off the coast of VA/NC. As a result, expect the
work week to begin with much of the same weather pattern we`re
seeing this weekend. Northeasterly flow will temper max temperatures
a bit, staying slightly below normal. However, thanks to air mass
modification, we should see a modest warming trend into Tuesday and
highs may be near normals. The moisture advection, thanks to
persistent onshore flow, and synoptic scale lift thanks to the upper
level low will result in continued rain chances. How quickly we dry
out will be dependent on how quickly the low lifts out of the
region. On this point, there are some slight differences between the
models with the GFS being a bit slower to clear everything out.
Would expect the bulk of the precipitation to be done by mid day
Tuesday as the flow turns more northwesterly, but a few showers
could linger into Tuesday evening.

Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level ridge shifts east, with the
ridge axis over our region by Thursday morning, bringing a lull in
rain chances and a very noticeable warming trend, with 80s expected
across much of the region both days.

Friday and Saturday...ridge shifts further east offshore through
this time, leaving our region on the periphery of the ridge. As
such, could see primarily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms as shortwave troughs embedded in the upper level SW
flow slide over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight: Conditions vary from VFR across the north at ABE and RDG,
to IFR at ILG/MIV/PHL, and MVFR at ACY/PNE/TTN. We expect IFR
conditions to develop for all sites through this evening and
overnight, except for ABE/RDG where we expect MVFR conditions to
develop. An area of moderate to heavy rain is moving across
eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey this evening, then
we expect more showery conditions through the night. Generally
north to northeast winds 5-10 knots, with some gusts 15-20 knots
possible from PHL south and eastward.

Sunday: Ceilings will start off IFR/MVFR in the morning, and begin
lifting from north to south, and may eventually lift to VFR by
the afternoon. Scattered showers could continue occur through the
day. North to northeast winds will start the day, becoming
northwest for ILG/PHL and points westward. Winds are expected to
become southeast for TTN and points south and east.

Outlook...

Monday and Tuesday...Occasional MVFR conditions possible with
showers and fog especially Monday night.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR conditions likely. Small chance of MVFR
conditions with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
We`ve extended the Small Craft Advisory on the Delaware Bay
through 2 am as winds look to remain gusty around 25 knots for
a few more hours. The Small Craft Advisory will continue for the
Atlantic coastal waters with no change with building seas expected
and gusts around 25-30 knots, especially across the southern half
of the waters.

Sunday: Winds will be more northerly and lighter. However wave
heights will still run from five to eight feet. SCA in effect.

RIP CURRENTS...Moderate risk for rip currents is expected for
Sunday. Northeast winds will be lighter than Saturday, but a
higher swell height will likely lead to moderate risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents.

Outlook...

Sunday night into Monday...Seas are expected through this
period and could be at or above 5 feet as early as Monday morning
(especially on the southern coastal waters).

Monday night...SCA conditions are likely on the coastal waters,
primarily for seas above 5 feet, though gusts near or above 20 kt
are possible.

Tuesday...seas should slowly subside, though SCA conditions may
linger through much of the day.

Tuesday night through Thursday...winds and seas should stay below
SCA criteria.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With the full moon today (Saturday), and on shore flow developing
later today and persisting through at least Sunday morning, tide
levels should be higher than normal on the Atlantic oceanfront and
the Delaware Bay. However, we expect water levels to fall short of
minor flooding thresholds at this point. The highest water levels
are expected with the high tide cycles on Sunday and Monday evening.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Gaines/Robertson
Short Term...Gaines
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Gaines/Johnson/Robertson
Marine...Drag/Gaines/Johnson/Robertson
Tides/Coastal Flooding...




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
333 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the Virginia coast will lift northeast of our
region through the day Sunday. However, a second offshore low is
expected to develop by Monday, before lifting away from the region
on Tuesday. A ridge will build over our region mid week. By Friday,
the ridge is expected to shift east as another low begins to slide
over the Great Plains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface low pressure will continue to move northeastward and
out to sea tonight. However, a upper low level pressure system to
our northwest will continue to be a focal mechanism for some
scattered light showers across the region tonight with a decrease
overnight in coverage. The more concentrated showers along the shore
will move offshore early this evening. With cloudy skies,
temperatures will be slow to fall tonight falling into the upper
40`s and low 50`s. Fairly good model agreement with the forecast for
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
The upper level low pressure system that will be to our northwest
will drop southward on Sunday. The 12z GFS/CMC/UKMET are a bit
further west than the 12Z ECMWF with this feature. With this
forecast package, we opted to go with a slightly more west track of
the low. This could potentially keep the highest coverage of showers
across Eastern Pennsylvania throughout the day. The areal coverage of
showers looks to be of a diurnal nature as low level lapse rates
steepen (instability mechanism) to increase the coverage by the
afternoon. Rainfall amounts are going to be light but a continued
low freezing level around 10,000 feet may result in a few showers
containing pea size hail in the afternoon hours. Coverage of
hail looks to low to place in forecast attm.

The track of the low will also effect the high temperatures. A
further east and cloudier ECMWF keeps highs down in the low and mid
60`s for most. On the other hand, A further west low track would
allow for breaks of sunshine and a chance at 70 degrees for Delaware
and New Jersey.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Monday through Tuesday...As the upper level short wave trough digs
and intensifies over the Mid Atlantic, a surface low will
subsequently develop off the coast of VA/NC. As a result, expect the
work week to begin with much of the same weather pattern we`re
seeing this weekend. Northeasterly flow will temper max temperatures
a bit, staying slightly below normal. However, thanks to air mass
modification, we should see a modest warming trend into Tuesday and
highs may be near normals. The moisture advection, thanks to
persistent onshore flow, and synoptic scale lift thanks to the upper
level low will result in continued rain chances. How quickly we dry
out will be dependent on how quickly the low lifts out of the
region. On this point, there are some slight differences between the
models with the GFS being a bit slower to clear everything out.
Would expect the bulk of the precipitation to be done by mid day
Tuesday as the flow turns more northwesterly, but a few showers
could linger into Tuesday evening.

Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level ridge shifts east, with the
ridge axis over our region by Thursday morning, bringing a lull in
rain chances and a very noticeable warming trend, with 80s expected
across much of the region both days.

Friday and Saturday...ridge shifts further east offshore through
this time, leaving our region on the periphery of the ridge. As
such, could see primarily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms as shortwave troughs embedded in the upper level SW
flow slide over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight: Mainly VFR through early evening, some MVFR possible from
KPHL and southeast with the steadiest showers through early
evening. Ceilings will gradually lower by late evening likely
becoming IFR for the overnight hours. Some MVFR VSBY restrictions
will also occur throughout the night as well. Winds will be
easterly- northeasterly around 10 knots.

Sunday: Ceilings will start off IFR/MVFR in the pre-dawn hours and
gradually lift to VFR by the afternoon. Chance for some brief
scattered showers to impact TAF site, to low of a chance for TAF
inclusion attm. Northerly winds around 10 knots.

Outlook...

Monday and Tuesday...Occasional MVFR conditions possible with
showers and fog especially Monday night.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR conditions likely. Small chance of MVFR
conditions with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA starting at 4 pm this afternoon. Easterly winds have increased
but are still only around 20 knots on the bay attm. A window still
looks present for some easterly wind gusts near 25 knots by
evening both on the ocean and in Delaware Bay. Seas will be slow to
rise and should get above five feet tonight on the ocean.

Sunday: Winds will be more northerly and lighter. However wave
heights will still run from five to eight feet. SCA in effect.

RIP CURRENTS...Moderate risk for rip currents today as well with
the onshore flow and increasing easterly winds. A cool, raw day to
be out at the beach. Rip current forecast will be updated this
evening for Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday night into Monday...Seas are expected through this
period and could be at or above 5 feet as early as Monday morning
(especially on the southern coastal waters).

Monday night...SCA conditions are likely on the coastal waters,
primarily for seas above 5 feet, though gusts near or above 20 kt
are possible.

Tuesday...seas should slowly subside, though SCA conditions may
linger through much of the day.

Tuesday night through Thursday...winds and seas should stay below
SCA criteria.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With the full moon today (Saturday), and on shore flow developing
later today and persisting through at least Sunday morning, tide
levels should be higher than normal on the Atlantic oceanfront and
the Delaware Bay. However, we expect water levels to fall short of
minor flooding thresholds at this point. The highest water levels
are expected with the high tide cycles on Sunday and Monday evening.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Gaines
Short Term...Gaines
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Gaines/Johnson
Marine...Gaines/Johnson
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Johnson




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
920 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will deepen off the Virginia coast today and move
offshore tonight and Sunday. An upper air disturbance will remain
across the area from Sunday through Tuesday. High pressure will
ridge across the area Wednesday and remain for part of Thursday.
Another disturbance will arrive for the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An upper-level trough from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley will
gradually shift eastward through the day. As this occurs, low-level
warm air advection will assist in strengthening isentropic lift. An
area of pressure falls is forecast to take place off the coast of
Virginia, which will allow surface low pressure to develop through
the day. The combination of the surface low development, isentropic
lift and large scale ascent incoming from the west will result in an
area of rain moving across much of the area today.

The forecast challenge is the timing and pin-pointing the area where
the heavier rain sets up. An initial area of warm advection rain
across western Pennsylvania is forecast by much of the guidance to
weaken some as it moves east-northeast this morning. As this occurs,
surface low development to our south allows more focused lift to
shift southeastward. The NAM looks to compact regarding its rain
shield despite its surface low closer to the coast. If this occurs,
then even less rain would fall across the western zones. The latest
thinking is that all areas get into the rain by the end of the day,
however did slow down the pop increase for awhile with a
northeastern extent. The heaviest rainfall is mainly from near the I-
95 corridor on south and eastward given the coastal surface low
development. Given increasing moisture and lift, the rain may become
moderate at times mainly across the southern and eastern areas.

As the surface low develops and starts to track northeastward, the
pressure gradient tightens to its north. This results in breezy
conditions developing closer to the coast. At this time, any
instability looks rather meager given the onshore flow therefore
thunder was not added.

As for the high temperatures, we used mostly a continuity/MOS blend.
With the strengthening onshore flow, clouds and incoming rain, we
are expecting a cool day. The northern areas may get warmer prior to
the rain arriving. With the rainy areas taking on a more triangle
look leaving the Philly Metro potentially drier for longer today,
high temperatures may edge out a few degrees warmer along with
northern NJ.

With the 9:30 am update, the rain shield coming into western
parts of the region has encountered some drier air at the surface.
Radar returns are showing moderate to heavy rain falling in Berks
county PA southward into the Delmarva. However, only very light is
currently reaching the ground. Pops were trimmed back after
reviewing recent modeling trends in the HRRR and RAP which show
this area of rain decaying late this morning and the area of
rainfall with coastal low forming further eastward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
The upper-level trough is forecast to sharpen across the east
tonight as an omega blocking pattern develops. This will drive
surface low pressure northeastward and away from our area. As this
occurs, the pressure gradient relaxes and therefore the winds that
start out a bit gusty along the coast will diminish at least some.

As the forcing shifts offshore with the surface low, any steadier
rain is expected to also shift offshore early with some showers
lingering. The showers will mostly be driven by the amplifying upper-
level trough. These showers may be more organized just to our west
within the trough axis itself. We therefore lowered pops some
through the night but allowed for at least scattered showers through
the overnight. With the idea of abundance of clouds around through
the night, temperatures should not drop off considerably but it will
be cool.

As for the low temperatures, we used mostly a MOS blend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper air pattern will change considerably this week and by
week`s end it will feel more like summer. The pattern begins with
a closed low across the Middle Atlantic and northeast U.S. This
low will fill and exit off into the Atlantic Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The upper low will bring mostly unsettled conditions
with scattered showers much of the time and a chc for an afternoon
tstm across southern NJ and the Delmarva Monday. Temperatures
from Sunday thru Tuesday will be mostly below normal...but cloud
be at normal levels on Tuesday...depending on how much influence
the upper low still has at this time.

On Wednesday...Upper heights will rise and sfc high pressure will
settle across the area. Under fair skies...temperatures will
climb above normal...something which has not happened much during
May. Highs in the low 80s are expected at this time.

The warm weather will continue for the rest of the extended
period...but rain chcs will also increase for Thursday and into
Friday. By this time, several short waves from the Midwest will
have traveled across the Ohio Valley and across the Middle
Atlantic. Pops will mostly be in the chc range for now, since the
details will not be able to be resolved until the week progresses
a little more. Our pops are a good fit with our neighboring
offices. Thunder will be possible during the period with the added
instability with abundant daytime heating.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

Today...VFR ceilings lowering to MVFR this afternoon, then IFR
toward late afternoon. KABE and KRDG may remain at VFR ceilings all
day. Rain overspreads the area from southwest to northeast from
about 14-18z. The heaviest rain should be near and south/east of
KPHL. Light southeast winds, becoming east then northeast and
increasing to 10-15 knots this afternoon with some gusts to 20
knots. The strongest winds are expected to be closer to the coast.

Tonight...MVFR to IFR conditions overall, with perhaps VFR ceilings
lingering at KABE. The greatest chance for IFR conditions should be
from KILG to KPHL/KPNE to KTTN on south and east. LIFR ceilings
cannot be ruled out at KMIV and KACY. Any remaining steady rain
tapers early to some showers with some visibility restrictions at
times. Northeast winds 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots
early (less at KABE and KRDG), diminishing through the overnight.

outlook...
Sunday thru Tuesday...VFR most of the time. Sct Showers thru the
    period may temporarily lower CIGS or VSBYS to MVFR/IFR.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR expected. Fog possible Tue
    night.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will develop off the Virginia coast during the course
of today, then move out to sea tonight. The pressure gradient will
tighten today as a result with an onshore flow therefore increasing.
It appears that the NAM is a bit aggressive with the surface low
since it is more consolidated and stronger. We leaned toward a
weaker wind field and therefore gales are not anticipated at this
time. The strengthening wind field spreading north looks to take
longer today, therefore we delayed the start time of the Small Craft
Advisory from south to north. Given the surface low track and
pressure gradient, we are more confident on the southern waters. The
increasing winds will build the seas with these becoming more robust
later today and tonight from south to north. The winds should drop
below advisory criteria this evening therefore we kept the 02z
ending time.

Moderate risk for rip currents today as well with the onshore
flow and increasing easterly winds. A cool, raw day to be out at
the beach.

outlook...
Sunday and Sunday night...SCA seas expected to continue on the
   Ocean. Sub-SCA conditions across Delaware Bay.
Monday and Monday night...SCA conditions possible on the Ocean with
   the lingering effects of the coastal storm. Seas 3-5 ft.
Tue thru Wed...Mostly Sub SCA conditions expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ450-451.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Gaines/Gorse
Short Term...Gorse
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Gorse/O`Hara
Marine...Gorse/O`Hara
Tides/Coastal Flooding...




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
344 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure well off the New Jersey coast this morning will
continue to track out to sea today. It will be followed by another
low Monday and Monday night. A ridge will build over our region for
Tuesday and Wednesday.  The ridge will remain to the east of the
area into the weekend while a few weak disturbances will affect the
Middle Atlantic region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An upper air analysis placed a trough across the east with its axis
just to our west early this morning. Several short waves were
analyzed within this trough and will play the main role in our
weather for today. The forecast challenge is how much can the cloud
cover erode during the course of the day and also shower chances.
Lingering areas of rain early this morning continue to ease off to
the east and gradually weaken as an initial short wave departs.

The model guidance continues to highlight areas just to our west and
south with the best chance for shower activity during the course of
the day. This is due to the presence of the trough axis and lower
heights along with steepening mid level lapse rates. The main short
wave that will allow the trough to become closed off by late in the
day is forecast to track to our south. As this occurs, some drying
may try to work in from the north. This all spells for a tricky
forecast regarding the details as our western and southern zones may
be very close to the pop gradient. We used a model blend to try and
capture this a bit better, which results in the highest pops around
the edges of the CWA during the day. If enough breaks in the cloud
cover can develop then perhaps some low topped convection can occur.
This looks more of a chance to our west and south. Therefore we will
continue with no thunder mention.

As low pressure offshore continues to move farther away today, the
pressure gradient will continue to relax. This in combination with
the upper-level trough overhead should result in a decreasing wind
field through much of the column today. This may result in any
showers becoming slow movers with localized downpours possible.
Overall, today looks more showery as we transition from the more
stable and stratiform setup.

As for the high temperatures, we used a MOS blend overall. The
warmer temperatures are across the northern areas where a better
chance of some heating and developing drier conditions may occur.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
The persistent upper-level trough becomes more closed off as the
synoptic pattern is of an omega block. The closed off portion of
this trough is forecast to track to our south tonight. This should
take the bulk of the forcing with it with lingering showers across
the western and then the far southern areas waning during the
evening hours. We are still expecting a decent amount of cloud cover
although the ceilings may rise some from north to south. The extent
of any clearing though will determine if some fog can develop given
the moist ground and light winds. As of now, any fog that may form
overnight looks to be localized and therefore a mention was not
included at this time.

As for the low temperatures, we used mainly a MOS/continuity blend.
The temperatures may be slow to fall especially where cloud cover is
more notable for awhile.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

The H5 heights across the east will be at their lowest at the
beginning of the long term with a cut-off low across the VA cape
region. The first sfc low from the near term will have moved off
into the Atlantic while a second low will be deepening well offshore
and moving northward well east of the area. The continuation of low
level moisture and cooler temps aloft will keep the area unsettled
with sct showers and afternoon tstms for mon and into tue. pops are
generally in the chc range. temperatures will be below normal Monday
and close to normal Tuesday. There will likely be more sunshine on
Tue with dryer air beginning to arrive across the area.

The Tue night thru Thu period will be mostly dry with sfc and upper
high pressure affecting the area. We have continued with a small chc
for an afternoon TSTM across the far n/w areas Thu afternoon.
Temperatures will be above normal thru the period with highs
reaching the low 80s in many areas Wed and then low and mid 80s for
Thu. Humidity levels will be mostly comfortable thru the
period...however a trend toward higher dew points will be under way.
It could be muggy across the Delmarva by Thu afternoon.

The mild temperatures will continue for the end of the ween and into
the weekend. Highs will mostly be in the 80s each day except across
the Srn. Poconos and along the shore. Chc for showers and Tstms
exist for both Fri and Sat...although the activity will be sct and
will be more of the typical summer-time variety.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today: Areas of MVFR ceilings this morning should lift to VFR
ceilings this afternoon. Some IFR ceilings early this morning mostly
at KACY/KMIV are expected to improve through midday. Some showers
early this morning will send the local visibility into the MVFR
range, then mainly scattered showers are anticipated through the
afternoon with the best chance west and south of KPHL. Northerly
winds 5-10 knots, becoming light northwest to southwest this
afternoon and even light and variable.

Tonight...VFR ceilings overall. Some showers around mainly in the
evening can locally reduce the visibility for a time, then there is
a chance of local MVFR due to fog late. Winds mostly light and
variable.

Outlook...
Monday thru Tuesday...vfr or mvfr with sct showers/tstms mostly
   during the afternoons. fog possible mon night.
Tue night thru Thu...Mostly vfr. Sct tstms n/w thu afternoon. some
   fog possible during the overnight periods.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will continue to move farther out to sea today,
allowing the pressure gradient to relax. The winds have already
diminished across much of the area already. As the wind diminishes
through the day the direction will become variable across the
waters. The seas however remain elevated across much of the Atlantic
coastal waters, however they continue to be slow in building passed
3 feet across the far north. We will continue the Small Craft
Advisory as is (through at least tonight) mainly for elevated seas.
The conditions are expected to remain below advisory criteria on
Delaware Bay through tonight.

RIP CURRENTS...There is a moderate risk of rip currents today.
Northerly winds will be less and also become variable this
afternoon, however a higher swell height into most beaches should
lead to an elevated risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents.

outlook...The last of the SCA conditions across the srn coastal
waters Monday. near SCA seas possible Tue across the ocean with
the second low out to sea. Mostly sub-sca Tue night-Thu.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Gorse
Short Term...Gorse
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Gorse/O`Hara
Marine...Gorse/O`Hara




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1227 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure well off the Delaware coast will track farther out to
sea through the day Sunday. However, a second offshore low is
expected to develop by Monday, before lifting away from the region
on Tuesday. A ridge will build over our region mid week. By
Friday, the ridge is expected to shift east as another low begins
to slide over the Great Plains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Surface low pressure located well off the Delaware coast will
continue to move northeastward overnight. Meanwhile, an upper-
level trough remains to our west. A more pronounced short wave
sliding across Pennsylvania appears to be responsible in producing
more widespread lift and therefore an uptick in the rain occurred
earlier. This activity is now gradually weakening and shifting
north and east. The pops were adjusted upward longer to better
capture ongoing radar trends. A downward trend in the pops was
then maintained toward daybreak as the overall lift should weaken.

The hourly temperature and dew point grids were adjusted based on
the latest obs, then the lamp/lav guidance was blended in. The
gusty winds mainly along portions of the coast are expected to
gradually diminish as the pressure gradient slowly weakens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
The upper level low pressure system that will be to our northwest
will drop southward on Sunday. The 12z GFS/CMC/UKMET are a bit
further west than the 12Z ECMWF with this feature. With this
forecast package, we opted to go with a slightly more west track
of the low. This could potentially keep the highest coverage of
showers across Eastern Pennsylvania throughout the day. The areal
coverage of showers looks to be of a diurnal nature as low level
lapse rates steepen (instability mechanism) to increase the
coverage by the afternoon. Rainfall amounts are going to be light
but a continued low freezing level around 10,000 feet may result
in a few showers containing pea size hail in the afternoon hours.
Coverage of hail looks to low to place in forecast attm.

The track of the low will also effect the high temperatures. A
further east and cloudier ECMWF keeps highs down in the low and mid
60`s for most. On the other hand, A further west low track would
allow for breaks of sunshine and a chance at 70 degrees for Delaware
and New Jersey.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Monday through Tuesday...As the upper level short wave trough
digs and intensifies over the Mid Atlantic, a surface low will
subsequently develop off the coast of VA/NC. As a result, expect
the work week to begin with much of the same weather pattern we`re
seeing this weekend. Northeasterly flow will temper max
temperatures a bit, staying slightly below normal. However, thanks
to air mass modification, we should see a modest warming trend
into Tuesday and highs may be near normals. The moisture
advection, thanks to persistent onshore flow, and synoptic scale
lift thanks to the upper level low will result in continued rain
chances. How quickly we dry out will be dependent on how quickly
the low lifts out of the region. On this point, there are some
slight differences between the models with the GFS being a bit
slower to clear everything out. Would expect the bulk of the
precipitation to be done by mid day Tuesday as the flow turns more
northwesterly, but a few showers could linger into Tuesday
evening.

Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level ridge shifts east, with the
ridge axis over our region by Thursday morning, bringing a lull in
rain chances and a very noticeable warming trend, with 80s expected
across much of the region both days.

Friday and Saturday...ridge shifts further east offshore through
this time, leaving our region on the periphery of the ridge. As
such, could see primarily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms as shortwave troughs embedded in the upper level SW
flow slide over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight: Conditions vary from VFR across the north at ABE and
RDG, to IFR at ILG/MIV/PHL, and MVFR at ACY/PNE/TTN. We expect IFR
conditions to develop for all sites through the overnight, except
for ABE/RDG where we expect MVFR conditions to develop. Some rain
will continue. Generally northeast to north winds 5-10 knots,
with some gusts 15-20 knots possible from PHL south and eastward.

Sunday: Ceilings will start off IFR/MVFR in the morning, and begin
lifting from north to south, and may eventually lift to VFR by
the afternoon. Scattered showers could continue occur through the
day. North to northeast winds will start the day, becoming
northwest for ILG/PHL and points westward. Winds are expected to
become southeast for TTN and points south and east.

Outlook...
Monday and Tuesday...Occasional MVFR conditions possible with
showers and fog especially Monday night.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR conditions likely. Small chance of MVFR
conditions with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory for Delaware Bay has been cancelled as
the winds continue to gradually diminish. The Small Craft
Advisory will continue for the Atlantic coastal waters with no
change with building seas expected and gusts 25-30 knots,
especially across the southern half of the waters.

Sunday: Winds will be more northerly and lighter. However wave
heights will still run from five to eight feet. SCA in effect.

RIP CURRENTS...Moderate risk for rip currents is expected for
Sunday. Northeast winds will be lighter than Saturday, but a
higher swell height will likely lead to moderate risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents.

Outlook...
Sunday night into Monday...Seas are expected through this period
and could be at or above 5 feet as early as Monday morning
(especially on the southern coastal waters).

Monday night...SCA conditions are likely on the coastal waters,
primarily for seas above 5 feet, though gusts near or above 20 kt
are possible.

Tuesday...seas should slowly subside, though SCA conditions may
linger through much of the day.

Tuesday night through Thursday...winds and seas should stay below
SCA criteria.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With the full moon Saturday and an onshore flow persisting
through at least Sunday morning, tide levels should be higher than
normal on the Atlantic oceanfront and the Delaware Bay. However,
we expect water levels to fall short of minor flooding thresholds
at this point. The highest water levels are expected with the high
tide cycles on Sunday and Monday evening.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Gorse
Short Term...Gaines
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Gaines/Johnson/Robertson
Marine...Gaines/Gorse/Johnson/Robertson
Tides/Coastal Flooding...




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1048 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the Virginia coast will lift northeast of our
region through the day Sunday. However, a second offshore low is
expected to develop by Monday, before lifting away from the region
on Tuesday. A ridge will build over our region mid week. By Friday,
the ridge is expected to shift east as another low begins to slide
over the Great Plains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Surface low pressure located off the Delmarva coast this evening
will continue to move northeastward through tonight. A mid/upper
trough to our west will continue to send several vorticity
impulses across the area tonight as well. One is moving through
early this evening which has led to an increase in some moderate
to at times heavy rainfall from the I-95/295 corridor
north and westward. We`ve increased pops significantly in this
area through the evening hours, then lower them through the night
as precipitation may become more showery overnight. Also added
drizzle and fog across southern portions of New Jersey, as well as
the Delmarva.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The upper level low pressure system that will be to our northwest
will drop southward on Sunday. The 12z GFS/CMC/UKMET are a bit
further west than the 12Z ECMWF with this feature. With this
forecast package, we opted to go with a slightly more west track of
the low. This could potentially keep the highest coverage of showers
across Eastern Pennsylvania throughout the day. The areal coverage of
showers looks to be of a diurnal nature as low level lapse rates
steepen (instability mechanism) to increase the coverage by the
afternoon. Rainfall amounts are going to be light but a continued
low freezing level around 10,000 feet may result in a few showers
containing pea size hail in the afternoon hours. Coverage of
hail looks to low to place in forecast attm.

The track of the low will also effect the high temperatures. A
further east and cloudier ECMWF keeps highs down in the low and mid
60`s for most. On the other hand, A further west low track would
allow for breaks of sunshine and a chance at 70 degrees for Delaware
and New Jersey.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Monday through Tuesday...As the upper level short wave trough digs
and intensifies over the Mid Atlantic, a surface low will
subsequently develop off the coast of VA/NC. As a result, expect the
work week to begin with much of the same weather pattern we`re
seeing this weekend. Northeasterly flow will temper max temperatures
a bit, staying slightly below normal. However, thanks to air mass
modification, we should see a modest warming trend into Tuesday and
highs may be near normals. The moisture advection, thanks to
persistent onshore flow, and synoptic scale lift thanks to the upper
level low will result in continued rain chances. How quickly we dry
out will be dependent on how quickly the low lifts out of the
region. On this point, there are some slight differences between the
models with the GFS being a bit slower to clear everything out.
Would expect the bulk of the precipitation to be done by mid day
Tuesday as the flow turns more northwesterly, but a few showers
could linger into Tuesday evening.

Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level ridge shifts east, with the
ridge axis over our region by Thursday morning, bringing a lull in
rain chances and a very noticeable warming trend, with 80s expected
across much of the region both days.

Friday and Saturday...ridge shifts further east offshore through
this time, leaving our region on the periphery of the ridge. As
such, could see primarily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms as shortwave troughs embedded in the upper level SW
flow slide over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight: Conditions vary from VFR across the north at ABE and RDG,
to IFR at ILG/MIV/PHL, and MVFR at ACY/PNE/TTN. We expect IFR
conditions to develop for all sites through this evening and
overnight, except for ABE/RDG where we expect MVFR conditions to
develop. An area of moderate to heavy rain is moving across
eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey this evening, then
we expect more showery conditions through the night. Generally
north to northeast winds 5-10 knots, with some gusts 15-20 knots
possible from PHL south and eastward.

Sunday: Ceilings will start off IFR/MVFR in the morning, and begin
lifting from north to south, and may eventually lift to VFR by
the afternoon. Scattered showers could continue occur through the
day. North to northeast winds will start the day, becoming
northwest for ILG/PHL and points westward. Winds are expected to
become southeast for TTN and points south and east.

Outlook...

Monday and Tuesday...Occasional MVFR conditions possible with
showers and fog especially Monday night.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR conditions likely. Small chance of MVFR
conditions with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
We`ve extended the Small Craft Advisory on the Delaware Bay
through 2 am as winds look to remain gusty around 25 knots for
a few more hours. The Small Craft Advisory will continue for the
Atlantic coastal waters with no change with building seas expected
and gusts around 25-30 knots, especially across the southern half
of the waters.

Sunday: Winds will be more northerly and lighter. However wave
heights will still run from five to eight feet. SCA in effect.

RIP CURRENTS...Moderate risk for rip currents is expected for
Sunday. Northeast winds will be lighter than Saturday, but a
higher swell height will likely lead to moderate risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents.

Outlook...

Sunday night into Monday...Seas are expected through this
period and could be at or above 5 feet as early as Monday morning
(especially on the southern coastal waters).

Monday night...SCA conditions are likely on the coastal waters,
primarily for seas above 5 feet, though gusts near or above 20 kt
are possible.

Tuesday...seas should slowly subside, though SCA conditions may
linger through much of the day.

Tuesday night through Thursday...winds and seas should stay below
SCA criteria.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With the full moon today (Saturday), and on shore flow developing
later today and persisting through at least Sunday morning, tide
levels should be higher than normal on the Atlantic oceanfront and
the Delaware Bay. However, we expect water levels to fall short of
minor flooding thresholds at this point. The highest water levels
are expected with the high tide cycles on Sunday and Monday evening.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Gaines/Robertson
Short Term...Gaines
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Gaines/Johnson/Robertson
Marine...Drag/Gaines/Johnson/Robertson
Tides/Coastal Flooding...




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
333 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the Virginia coast will lift northeast of our
region through the day Sunday. However, a second offshore low is
expected to develop by Monday, before lifting away from the region
on Tuesday. A ridge will build over our region mid week. By Friday,
the ridge is expected to shift east as another low begins to slide
over the Great Plains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface low pressure will continue to move northeastward and
out to sea tonight. However, a upper low level pressure system to
our northwest will continue to be a focal mechanism for some
scattered light showers across the region tonight with a decrease
overnight in coverage. The more concentrated showers along the shore
will move offshore early this evening. With cloudy skies,
temperatures will be slow to fall tonight falling into the upper
40`s and low 50`s. Fairly good model agreement with the forecast for
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
The upper level low pressure system that will be to our northwest
will drop southward on Sunday. The 12z GFS/CMC/UKMET are a bit
further west than the 12Z ECMWF with this feature. With this
forecast package, we opted to go with a slightly more west track of
the low. This could potentially keep the highest coverage of showers
across Eastern Pennsylvania throughout the day. The areal coverage of
showers looks to be of a diurnal nature as low level lapse rates
steepen (instability mechanism) to increase the coverage by the
afternoon. Rainfall amounts are going to be light but a continued
low freezing level around 10,000 feet may result in a few showers
containing pea size hail in the afternoon hours. Coverage of
hail looks to low to place in forecast attm.

The track of the low will also effect the high temperatures. A
further east and cloudier ECMWF keeps highs down in the low and mid
60`s for most. On the other hand, A further west low track would
allow for breaks of sunshine and a chance at 70 degrees for Delaware
and New Jersey.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Monday through Tuesday...As the upper level short wave trough digs
and intensifies over the Mid Atlantic, a surface low will
subsequently develop off the coast of VA/NC. As a result, expect the
work week to begin with much of the same weather pattern we`re
seeing this weekend. Northeasterly flow will temper max temperatures
a bit, staying slightly below normal. However, thanks to air mass
modification, we should see a modest warming trend into Tuesday and
highs may be near normals. The moisture advection, thanks to
persistent onshore flow, and synoptic scale lift thanks to the upper
level low will result in continued rain chances. How quickly we dry
out will be dependent on how quickly the low lifts out of the
region. On this point, there are some slight differences between the
models with the GFS being a bit slower to clear everything out.
Would expect the bulk of the precipitation to be done by mid day
Tuesday as the flow turns more northwesterly, but a few showers
could linger into Tuesday evening.

Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level ridge shifts east, with the
ridge axis over our region by Thursday morning, bringing a lull in
rain chances and a very noticeable warming trend, with 80s expected
across much of the region both days.

Friday and Saturday...ridge shifts further east offshore through
this time, leaving our region on the periphery of the ridge. As
such, could see primarily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms as shortwave troughs embedded in the upper level SW
flow slide over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight: Mainly VFR through early evening, some MVFR possible from
KPHL and southeast with the steadiest showers through early
evening. Ceilings will gradually lower by late evening likely
becoming IFR for the overnight hours. Some MVFR VSBY restrictions
will also occur throughout the night as well. Winds will be
easterly- northeasterly around 10 knots.

Sunday: Ceilings will start off IFR/MVFR in the pre-dawn hours and
gradually lift to VFR by the afternoon. Chance for some brief
scattered showers to impact TAF site, to low of a chance for TAF
inclusion attm. Northerly winds around 10 knots.

Outlook...

Monday and Tuesday...Occasional MVFR conditions possible with
showers and fog especially Monday night.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR conditions likely. Small chance of MVFR
conditions with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA starting at 4 pm this afternoon. Easterly winds have increased
but are still only around 20 knots on the bay attm. A window still
looks present for some easterly wind gusts near 25 knots by
evening both on the ocean and in Delaware Bay. Seas will be slow to
rise and should get above five feet tonight on the ocean.

Sunday: Winds will be more northerly and lighter. However wave
heights will still run from five to eight feet. SCA in effect.

RIP CURRENTS...Moderate risk for rip currents today as well with
the onshore flow and increasing easterly winds. A cool, raw day to
be out at the beach. Rip current forecast will be updated this
evening for Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday night into Monday...Seas are expected through this
period and could be at or above 5 feet as early as Monday morning
(especially on the southern coastal waters).

Monday night...SCA conditions are likely on the coastal waters,
primarily for seas above 5 feet, though gusts near or above 20 kt
are possible.

Tuesday...seas should slowly subside, though SCA conditions may
linger through much of the day.

Tuesday night through Thursday...winds and seas should stay below
SCA criteria.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With the full moon today (Saturday), and on shore flow developing
later today and persisting through at least Sunday morning, tide
levels should be higher than normal on the Atlantic oceanfront and
the Delaware Bay. However, we expect water levels to fall short of
minor flooding thresholds at this point. The highest water levels
are expected with the high tide cycles on Sunday and Monday evening.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Gaines
Short Term...Gaines
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Gaines/Johnson
Marine...Gaines/Johnson
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Johnson




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
920 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will deepen off the Virginia coast today and move
offshore tonight and Sunday. An upper air disturbance will remain
across the area from Sunday through Tuesday. High pressure will
ridge across the area Wednesday and remain for part of Thursday.
Another disturbance will arrive for the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An upper-level trough from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley will
gradually shift eastward through the day. As this occurs, low-level
warm air advection will assist in strengthening isentropic lift. An
area of pressure falls is forecast to take place off the coast of
Virginia, which will allow surface low pressure to develop through
the day. The combination of the surface low development, isentropic
lift and large scale ascent incoming from the west will result in an
area of rain moving across much of the area today.

The forecast challenge is the timing and pin-pointing the area where
the heavier rain sets up. An initial area of warm advection rain
across western Pennsylvania is forecast by much of the guidance to
weaken some as it moves east-northeast this morning. As this occurs,
surface low development to our south allows more focused lift to
shift southeastward. The NAM looks to compact regarding its rain
shield despite its surface low closer to the coast. If this occurs,
then even less rain would fall across the western zones. The latest
thinking is that all areas get into the rain by the end of the day,
however did slow down the pop increase for awhile with a
northeastern extent. The heaviest rainfall is mainly from near the I-
95 corridor on south and eastward given the coastal surface low
development. Given increasing moisture and lift, the rain may become
moderate at times mainly across the southern and eastern areas.

As the surface low develops and starts to track northeastward, the
pressure gradient tightens to its north. This results in breezy
conditions developing closer to the coast. At this time, any
instability looks rather meager given the onshore flow therefore
thunder was not added.

As for the high temperatures, we used mostly a continuity/MOS blend.
With the strengthening onshore flow, clouds and incoming rain, we
are expecting a cool day. The northern areas may get warmer prior to
the rain arriving. With the rainy areas taking on a more triangle
look leaving the Philly Metro potentially drier for longer today,
high temperatures may edge out a few degrees warmer along with
northern NJ.

With the 9:30 am update, the rain shield coming into western
parts of the region has encountered some drier air at the surface.
Radar returns are showing moderate to heavy rain falling in Berks
county PA southward into the Delmarva. However, only very light is
currently reaching the ground. Pops were trimmed back after
reviewing recent modeling trends in the HRRR and RAP which show
this area of rain decaying late this morning and the area of
rainfall with coastal low forming further eastward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
The upper-level trough is forecast to sharpen across the east
tonight as an omega blocking pattern develops. This will drive
surface low pressure northeastward and away from our area. As this
occurs, the pressure gradient relaxes and therefore the winds that
start out a bit gusty along the coast will diminish at least some.

As the forcing shifts offshore with the surface low, any steadier
rain is expected to also shift offshore early with some showers
lingering. The showers will mostly be driven by the amplifying upper-
level trough. These showers may be more organized just to our west
within the trough axis itself. We therefore lowered pops some
through the night but allowed for at least scattered showers through
the overnight. With the idea of abundance of clouds around through
the night, temperatures should not drop off considerably but it will
be cool.

As for the low temperatures, we used mostly a MOS blend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper air pattern will change considerably this week and by
week`s end it will feel more like summer. The pattern begins with
a closed low across the Middle Atlantic and northeast U.S. This
low will fill and exit off into the Atlantic Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The upper low will bring mostly unsettled conditions
with scattered showers much of the time and a chc for an afternoon
tstm across southern NJ and the Delmarva Monday. Temperatures
from Sunday thru Tuesday will be mostly below normal...but cloud
be at normal levels on Tuesday...depending on how much influence
the upper low still has at this time.

On Wednesday...Upper heights will rise and sfc high pressure will
settle across the area. Under fair skies...temperatures will
climb above normal...something which has not happened much during
May. Highs in the low 80s are expected at this time.

The warm weather will continue for the rest of the extended
period...but rain chcs will also increase for Thursday and into
Friday. By this time, several short waves from the Midwest will
have traveled across the Ohio Valley and across the Middle
Atlantic. Pops will mostly be in the chc range for now, since the
details will not be able to be resolved until the week progresses
a little more. Our pops are a good fit with our neighboring
offices. Thunder will be possible during the period with the added
instability with abundant daytime heating.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

Today...VFR ceilings lowering to MVFR this afternoon, then IFR
toward late afternoon. KABE and KRDG may remain at VFR ceilings all
day. Rain overspreads the area from southwest to northeast from
about 14-18z. The heaviest rain should be near and south/east of
KPHL. Light southeast winds, becoming east then northeast and
increasing to 10-15 knots this afternoon with some gusts to 20
knots. The strongest winds are expected to be closer to the coast.

Tonight...MVFR to IFR conditions overall, with perhaps VFR ceilings
lingering at KABE. The greatest chance for IFR conditions should be
from KILG to KPHL/KPNE to KTTN on south and east. LIFR ceilings
cannot be ruled out at KMIV and KACY. Any remaining steady rain
tapers early to some showers with some visibility restrictions at
times. Northeast winds 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots
early (less at KABE and KRDG), diminishing through the overnight.

outlook...
Sunday thru Tuesday...VFR most of the time. Sct Showers thru the
    period may temporarily lower CIGS or VSBYS to MVFR/IFR.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR expected. Fog possible Tue
    night.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will develop off the Virginia coast during the course
of today, then move out to sea tonight. The pressure gradient will
tighten today as a result with an onshore flow therefore increasing.
It appears that the NAM is a bit aggressive with the surface low
since it is more consolidated and stronger. We leaned toward a
weaker wind field and therefore gales are not anticipated at this
time. The strengthening wind field spreading north looks to take
longer today, therefore we delayed the start time of the Small Craft
Advisory from south to north. Given the surface low track and
pressure gradient, we are more confident on the southern waters. The
increasing winds will build the seas with these becoming more robust
later today and tonight from south to north. The winds should drop
below advisory criteria this evening therefore we kept the 02z
ending time.

Moderate risk for rip currents today as well with the onshore
flow and increasing easterly winds. A cool, raw day to be out at
the beach.

outlook...
Sunday and Sunday night...SCA seas expected to continue on the
   Ocean. Sub-SCA conditions across Delaware Bay.
Monday and Monday night...SCA conditions possible on the Ocean with
   the lingering effects of the coastal storm. Seas 3-5 ft.
Tue thru Wed...Mostly Sub SCA conditions expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ450-451.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Gaines/Gorse
Short Term...Gorse
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Gorse/O`Hara
Marine...Gorse/O`Hara
Tides/Coastal Flooding...




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
911 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure well off the New Jersey coast this morning will
continue to track out to sea today. It will be followed by another
low Monday and Monday night. A ridge will build over our region for
Tuesday and Wednesday.  The ridge will remain to the east of the
area into the weekend while a few weak disturbances will affect the
Middle Atlantic region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An upper air analysis placed a trough across the east with its axis
just to our west this morning. Several short waves were analyzed
within this trough and will play the main role in our weather for
today. The forecast challenge is how much can the cloud cover
erode during the course of the day and also shower chances.
Lingering areas of rain early this morning continue to ease off to
the east and gradually weaken as an initial short wave departs.

The model guidance continues to highlight areas just to our west and
south with the best chance for shower activity during the course of
the day. This is due to the presence of the trough axis and lower
heights along with steepening mid level lapse rates. The main short
wave that will allow the trough to become closed off by late in the
day is forecast to track to our south. As this occurs, some drying
may try to work in from the north. This all spells for a tricky
forecast regarding the details as our western and southern zones may
be very close to the pop gradient. We used a model blend to try and
capture this a bit better, which results in the highest pops around
the edges of the CWA during the day. Recent radar trends have
shown some of showers moving eastward toward Philadelphia and the
Delmarva, so at least into the early afternoon we will cary
higher chance pops for these regions as well. If enough breaks in
the cloud cover can develop then perhaps some low topped
convection can occur. This looks more of a chance to our west and
south. Therefore we will continue with no thunder mention.

As low pressure offshore continues to move farther away today, the
pressure gradient will continue to relax. This in combination with
the upper-level trough overhead should result in a decreasing wind
field through much of the column today. This may result in any
showers becoming slow movers with localized downpours possible.
Overall, today looks more showery as we transition from the more
stable and stratiform setup.

As for the high temperatures, we used a MOS blend overall. The
warmer temperatures are across the northern areas where a better
chance of some heating and developing drier conditions may occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
The persistent upper-level trough becomes more closed off as the
synoptic pattern is of an omega block. The closed off portion of
this trough is forecast to track to our south tonight. This should
take the bulk of the forcing with it with lingering showers across
the western and then the far southern areas waning during the
evening hours. We are still expecting a decent amount of cloud cover
although the ceilings may rise some from north to south. The extent
of any clearing though will determine if some fog can develop given
the moist ground and light winds. As of now, any fog that may form
overnight looks to be localized and therefore a mention was not
included at this time.

As for the low temperatures, we used mainly a MOS/continuity blend.
The temperatures may be slow to fall especially where cloud cover is
more notable for awhile.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The H5 heights across the east will be at their lowest at the
beginning of the long term with a cut-off low across the VA cape
region. The first sfc low from the near term will have moved off
into the Atlantic while a second low will be deepening well offshore
and moving northward well east of the area. The continuation of low
level moisture and cooler temps aloft will keep the area unsettled
with sct showers and afternoon tstms for mon and into tue. pops are
generally in the chc range. temperatures will be below normal Monday
and close to normal Tuesday. There will likely be more sunshine on
Tue with dryer air beginning to arrive across the area.

The Tue night thru Thu period will be mostly dry with sfc and upper
high pressure affecting the area. We have continued with a small chc
for an afternoon TSTM across the far n/w areas Thu afternoon.
Temperatures will be above normal thru the period with highs
reaching the low 80s in many areas Wed and then low and mid 80s for
Thu. Humidity levels will be mostly comfortable thru the
period...however a trend toward higher dew points will be under way.
It could be muggy across the Delmarva by Thu afternoon.

The mild temperatures will continue for the end of the ween and into
the weekend. Highs will mostly be in the 80s each day except across
the Srn. Poconos and along the shore. Chc for showers and Tstms
exist for both Fri and Sat...although the activity will be sct and
will be more of the typical summer-time variety.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today: Areas of MVFR ceilings this morning should lift to VFR
ceilings this afternoon. Some IFR ceilings early this morning mostly
at KACY/KMIV are expected to improve through midday. Some showers
early this morning will send the local visibility into the MVFR
range, then mainly scattered showers are anticipated through the
afternoon with the best chance west and south of KPHL. Northerly
winds 5-10 knots, becoming light northwest to southwest this
afternoon and even light and variable.

Tonight...VFR ceilings overall. Some showers around mainly in the
evening can locally reduce the visibility for a time, then there is
a chance of local MVFR due to fog late. Winds mostly light and
variable.

Outlook...
Monday thru Tuesday...vfr or mvfr with sct showers/tstms mostly
   during the afternoons. fog possible mon night.
Tue night thru Thu...Mostly vfr. Sct tstms n/w thu afternoon. some
   fog possible during the overnight periods.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will continue to move farther out to sea today,
allowing the pressure gradient to relax. The winds have already
diminished across much of the area already. As the wind diminishes
through the day the direction will become variable across the
waters. The seas however remain elevated across much of the Atlantic
coastal waters, however they continue to be slow in building passed
3 feet across the far north. We will continue the Small Craft
Advisory as is (through at least tonight) mainly for elevated seas.
The conditions are expected to remain below advisory criteria on
Delaware Bay through tonight.

RIP CURRENTS...There is a moderate risk of rip currents today.
Northerly winds will be less and also become variable this
afternoon, however a higher swell height into most beaches should
lead to an elevated risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents.

outlook...The last of the SCA conditions across the srn coastal
waters Monday. near SCA seas possible Tue across the ocean with
the second low out to sea. Mostly sub-sca Tue night-Thu.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Gaines/Gorse
Short Term...Gorse
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Gorse/O`Hara
Marine...Gorse/O`Hara




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
344 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure well off the New Jersey coast this morning will
continue to track out to sea today. It will be followed by another
low Monday and Monday night. A ridge will build over our region for
Tuesday and Wednesday.  The ridge will remain to the east of the
area into the weekend while a few weak disturbances will affect the
Middle Atlantic region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An upper air analysis placed a trough across the east with its axis
just to our west early this morning. Several short waves were
analyzed within this trough and will play the main role in our
weather for today. The forecast challenge is how much can the cloud
cover erode during the course of the day and also shower chances.
Lingering areas of rain early this morning continue to ease off to
the east and gradually weaken as an initial short wave departs.

The model guidance continues to highlight areas just to our west and
south with the best chance for shower activity during the course of
the day. This is due to the presence of the trough axis and lower
heights along with steepening mid level lapse rates. The main short
wave that will allow the trough to become closed off by late in the
day is forecast to track to our south. As this occurs, some drying
may try to work in from the north. This all spells for a tricky
forecast regarding the details as our western and southern zones may
be very close to the pop gradient. We used a model blend to try and
capture this a bit better, which results in the highest pops around
the edges of the CWA during the day. If enough breaks in the cloud
cover can develop then perhaps some low topped convection can occur.
This looks more of a chance to our west and south. Therefore we will
continue with no thunder mention.

As low pressure offshore continues to move farther away today, the
pressure gradient will continue to relax. This in combination with
the upper-level trough overhead should result in a decreasing wind
field through much of the column today. This may result in any
showers becoming slow movers with localized downpours possible.
Overall, today looks more showery as we transition from the more
stable and stratiform setup.

As for the high temperatures, we used a MOS blend overall. The
warmer temperatures are across the northern areas where a better
chance of some heating and developing drier conditions may occur.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
The persistent upper-level trough becomes more closed off as the
synoptic pattern is of an omega block. The closed off portion of
this trough is forecast to track to our south tonight. This should
take the bulk of the forcing with it with lingering showers across
the western and then the far southern areas waning during the
evening hours. We are still expecting a decent amount of cloud cover
although the ceilings may rise some from north to south. The extent
of any clearing though will determine if some fog can develop given
the moist ground and light winds. As of now, any fog that may form
overnight looks to be localized and therefore a mention was not
included at this time.

As for the low temperatures, we used mainly a MOS/continuity blend.
The temperatures may be slow to fall especially where cloud cover is
more notable for awhile.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

The H5 heights across the east will be at their lowest at the
beginning of the long term with a cut-off low across the VA cape
region. The first sfc low from the near term will have moved off
into the Atlantic while a second low will be deepening well offshore
and moving northward well east of the area. The continuation of low
level moisture and cooler temps aloft will keep the area unsettled
with sct showers and afternoon tstms for mon and into tue. pops are
generally in the chc range. temperatures will be below normal Monday
and close to normal Tuesday. There will likely be more sunshine on
Tue with dryer air beginning to arrive across the area.

The Tue night thru Thu period will be mostly dry with sfc and upper
high pressure affecting the area. We have continued with a small chc
for an afternoon TSTM across the far n/w areas Thu afternoon.
Temperatures will be above normal thru the period with highs
reaching the low 80s in many areas Wed and then low and mid 80s for
Thu. Humidity levels will be mostly comfortable thru the
period...however a trend toward higher dew points will be under way.
It could be muggy across the Delmarva by Thu afternoon.

The mild temperatures will continue for the end of the ween and into
the weekend. Highs will mostly be in the 80s each day except across
the Srn. Poconos and along the shore. Chc for showers and Tstms
exist for both Fri and Sat...although the activity will be sct and
will be more of the typical summer-time variety.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today: Areas of MVFR ceilings this morning should lift to VFR
ceilings this afternoon. Some IFR ceilings early this morning mostly
at KACY/KMIV are expected to improve through midday. Some showers
early this morning will send the local visibility into the MVFR
range, then mainly scattered showers are anticipated through the
afternoon with the best chance west and south of KPHL. Northerly
winds 5-10 knots, becoming light northwest to southwest this
afternoon and even light and variable.

Tonight...VFR ceilings overall. Some showers around mainly in the
evening can locally reduce the visibility for a time, then there is
a chance of local MVFR due to fog late. Winds mostly light and
variable.

Outlook...
Monday thru Tuesday...vfr or mvfr with sct showers/tstms mostly
   during the afternoons. fog possible mon night.
Tue night thru Thu...Mostly vfr. Sct tstms n/w thu afternoon. some
   fog possible during the overnight periods.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will continue to move farther out to sea today,
allowing the pressure gradient to relax. The winds have already
diminished across much of the area already. As the wind diminishes
through the day the direction will become variable across the
waters. The seas however remain elevated across much of the Atlantic
coastal waters, however they continue to be slow in building passed
3 feet across the far north. We will continue the Small Craft
Advisory as is (through at least tonight) mainly for elevated seas.
The conditions are expected to remain below advisory criteria on
Delaware Bay through tonight.

RIP CURRENTS...There is a moderate risk of rip currents today.
Northerly winds will be less and also become variable this
afternoon, however a higher swell height into most beaches should
lead to an elevated risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents.

outlook...The last of the SCA conditions across the srn coastal
waters Monday. near SCA seas possible Tue across the ocean with
the second low out to sea. Mostly sub-sca Tue night-Thu.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Gorse
Short Term...Gorse
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Gorse/O`Hara
Marine...Gorse/O`Hara




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1227 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure well off the Delaware coast will track farther out to
sea through the day Sunday. However, a second offshore low is
expected to develop by Monday, before lifting away from the region
on Tuesday. A ridge will build over our region mid week. By
Friday, the ridge is expected to shift east as another low begins
to slide over the Great Plains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Surface low pressure located well off the Delaware coast will
continue to move northeastward overnight. Meanwhile, an upper-
level trough remains to our west. A more pronounced short wave
sliding across Pennsylvania appears to be responsible in producing
more widespread lift and therefore an uptick in the rain occurred
earlier. This activity is now gradually weakening and shifting
north and east. The pops were adjusted upward longer to better
capture ongoing radar trends. A downward trend in the pops was
then maintained toward daybreak as the overall lift should weaken.

The hourly temperature and dew point grids were adjusted based on
the latest obs, then the lamp/lav guidance was blended in. The
gusty winds mainly along portions of the coast are expected to
gradually diminish as the pressure gradient slowly weakens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
The upper level low pressure system that will be to our northwest
will drop southward on Sunday. The 12z GFS/CMC/UKMET are a bit
further west than the 12Z ECMWF with this feature. With this
forecast package, we opted to go with a slightly more west track
of the low. This could potentially keep the highest coverage of
showers across Eastern Pennsylvania throughout the day. The areal
coverage of showers looks to be of a diurnal nature as low level
lapse rates steepen (instability mechanism) to increase the
coverage by the afternoon. Rainfall amounts are going to be light
but a continued low freezing level around 10,000 feet may result
in a few showers containing pea size hail in the afternoon hours.
Coverage of hail looks to low to place in forecast attm.

The track of the low will also effect the high temperatures. A
further east and cloudier ECMWF keeps highs down in the low and mid
60`s for most. On the other hand, A further west low track would
allow for breaks of sunshine and a chance at 70 degrees for Delaware
and New Jersey.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Monday through Tuesday...As the upper level short wave trough
digs and intensifies over the Mid Atlantic, a surface low will
subsequently develop off the coast of VA/NC. As a result, expect
the work week to begin with much of the same weather pattern we`re
seeing this weekend. Northeasterly flow will temper max
temperatures a bit, staying slightly below normal. However, thanks
to air mass modification, we should see a modest warming trend
into Tuesday and highs may be near normals. The moisture
advection, thanks to persistent onshore flow, and synoptic scale
lift thanks to the upper level low will result in continued rain
chances. How quickly we dry out will be dependent on how quickly
the low lifts out of the region. On this point, there are some
slight differences between the models with the GFS being a bit
slower to clear everything out. Would expect the bulk of the
precipitation to be done by mid day Tuesday as the flow turns more
northwesterly, but a few showers could linger into Tuesday
evening.

Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level ridge shifts east, with the
ridge axis over our region by Thursday morning, bringing a lull in
rain chances and a very noticeable warming trend, with 80s expected
across much of the region both days.

Friday and Saturday...ridge shifts further east offshore through
this time, leaving our region on the periphery of the ridge. As
such, could see primarily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms as shortwave troughs embedded in the upper level SW
flow slide over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight: Conditions vary from VFR across the north at ABE and
RDG, to IFR at ILG/MIV/PHL, and MVFR at ACY/PNE/TTN. We expect IFR
conditions to develop for all sites through the overnight, except
for ABE/RDG where we expect MVFR conditions to develop. Some rain
will continue. Generally northeast to north winds 5-10 knots,
with some gusts 15-20 knots possible from PHL south and eastward.

Sunday: Ceilings will start off IFR/MVFR in the morning, and begin
lifting from north to south, and may eventually lift to VFR by
the afternoon. Scattered showers could continue occur through the
day. North to northeast winds will start the day, becoming
northwest for ILG/PHL and points westward. Winds are expected to
become southeast for TTN and points south and east.

Outlook...
Monday and Tuesday...Occasional MVFR conditions possible with
showers and fog especially Monday night.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR conditions likely. Small chance of MVFR
conditions with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory for Delaware Bay has been cancelled as
the winds continue to gradually diminish. The Small Craft
Advisory will continue for the Atlantic coastal waters with no
change with building seas expected and gusts 25-30 knots,
especially across the southern half of the waters.

Sunday: Winds will be more northerly and lighter. However wave
heights will still run from five to eight feet. SCA in effect.

RIP CURRENTS...Moderate risk for rip currents is expected for
Sunday. Northeast winds will be lighter than Saturday, but a
higher swell height will likely lead to moderate risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents.

Outlook...
Sunday night into Monday...Seas are expected through this period
and could be at or above 5 feet as early as Monday morning
(especially on the southern coastal waters).

Monday night...SCA conditions are likely on the coastal waters,
primarily for seas above 5 feet, though gusts near or above 20 kt
are possible.

Tuesday...seas should slowly subside, though SCA conditions may
linger through much of the day.

Tuesday night through Thursday...winds and seas should stay below
SCA criteria.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With the full moon Saturday and an onshore flow persisting
through at least Sunday morning, tide levels should be higher than
normal on the Atlantic oceanfront and the Delaware Bay. However,
we expect water levels to fall short of minor flooding thresholds
at this point. The highest water levels are expected with the high
tide cycles on Sunday and Monday evening.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Gorse
Short Term...Gaines
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Gaines/Johnson/Robertson
Marine...Gaines/Gorse/Johnson/Robertson
Tides/Coastal Flooding...




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1048 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the Virginia coast will lift northeast of our
region through the day Sunday. However, a second offshore low is
expected to develop by Monday, before lifting away from the region
on Tuesday. A ridge will build over our region mid week. By Friday,
the ridge is expected to shift east as another low begins to slide
over the Great Plains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Surface low pressure located off the Delmarva coast this evening
will continue to move northeastward through tonight. A mid/upper
trough to our west will continue to send several vorticity
impulses across the area tonight as well. One is moving through
early this evening which has led to an increase in some moderate
to at times heavy rainfall from the I-95/295 corridor
north and westward. We`ve increased pops significantly in this
area through the evening hours, then lower them through the night
as precipitation may become more showery overnight. Also added
drizzle and fog across southern portions of New Jersey, as well as
the Delmarva.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The upper level low pressure system that will be to our northwest
will drop southward on Sunday. The 12z GFS/CMC/UKMET are a bit
further west than the 12Z ECMWF with this feature. With this
forecast package, we opted to go with a slightly more west track of
the low. This could potentially keep the highest coverage of showers
across Eastern Pennsylvania throughout the day. The areal coverage of
showers looks to be of a diurnal nature as low level lapse rates
steepen (instability mechanism) to increase the coverage by the
afternoon. Rainfall amounts are going to be light but a continued
low freezing level around 10,000 feet may result in a few showers
containing pea size hail in the afternoon hours. Coverage of
hail looks to low to place in forecast attm.

The track of the low will also effect the high temperatures. A
further east and cloudier ECMWF keeps highs down in the low and mid
60`s for most. On the other hand, A further west low track would
allow for breaks of sunshine and a chance at 70 degrees for Delaware
and New Jersey.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Monday through Tuesday...As the upper level short wave trough digs
and intensifies over the Mid Atlantic, a surface low will
subsequently develop off the coast of VA/NC. As a result, expect the
work week to begin with much of the same weather pattern we`re
seeing this weekend. Northeasterly flow will temper max temperatures
a bit, staying slightly below normal. However, thanks to air mass
modification, we should see a modest warming trend into Tuesday and
highs may be near normals. The moisture advection, thanks to
persistent onshore flow, and synoptic scale lift thanks to the upper
level low will result in continued rain chances. How quickly we dry
out will be dependent on how quickly the low lifts out of the
region. On this point, there are some slight differences between the
models with the GFS being a bit slower to clear everything out.
Would expect the bulk of the precipitation to be done by mid day
Tuesday as the flow turns more northwesterly, but a few showers
could linger into Tuesday evening.

Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level ridge shifts east, with the
ridge axis over our region by Thursday morning, bringing a lull in
rain chances and a very noticeable warming trend, with 80s expected
across much of the region both days.

Friday and Saturday...ridge shifts further east offshore through
this time, leaving our region on the periphery of the ridge. As
such, could see primarily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms as shortwave troughs embedded in the upper level SW
flow slide over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight: Conditions vary from VFR across the north at ABE and RDG,
to IFR at ILG/MIV/PHL, and MVFR at ACY/PNE/TTN. We expect IFR
conditions to develop for all sites through this evening and
overnight, except for ABE/RDG where we expect MVFR conditions to
develop. An area of moderate to heavy rain is moving across
eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey this evening, then
we expect more showery conditions through the night. Generally
north to northeast winds 5-10 knots, with some gusts 15-20 knots
possible from PHL south and eastward.

Sunday: Ceilings will start off IFR/MVFR in the morning, and begin
lifting from north to south, and may eventually lift to VFR by
the afternoon. Scattered showers could continue occur through the
day. North to northeast winds will start the day, becoming
northwest for ILG/PHL and points westward. Winds are expected to
become southeast for TTN and points south and east.

Outlook...

Monday and Tuesday...Occasional MVFR conditions possible with
showers and fog especially Monday night.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR conditions likely. Small chance of MVFR
conditions with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
We`ve extended the Small Craft Advisory on the Delaware Bay
through 2 am as winds look to remain gusty around 25 knots for
a few more hours. The Small Craft Advisory will continue for the
Atlantic coastal waters with no change with building seas expected
and gusts around 25-30 knots, especially across the southern half
of the waters.

Sunday: Winds will be more northerly and lighter. However wave
heights will still run from five to eight feet. SCA in effect.

RIP CURRENTS...Moderate risk for rip currents is expected for
Sunday. Northeast winds will be lighter than Saturday, but a
higher swell height will likely lead to moderate risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents.

Outlook...

Sunday night into Monday...Seas are expected through this
period and could be at or above 5 feet as early as Monday morning
(especially on the southern coastal waters).

Monday night...SCA conditions are likely on the coastal waters,
primarily for seas above 5 feet, though gusts near or above 20 kt
are possible.

Tuesday...seas should slowly subside, though SCA conditions may
linger through much of the day.

Tuesday night through Thursday...winds and seas should stay below
SCA criteria.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With the full moon today (Saturday), and on shore flow developing
later today and persisting through at least Sunday morning, tide
levels should be higher than normal on the Atlantic oceanfront and
the Delaware Bay. However, we expect water levels to fall short of
minor flooding thresholds at this point. The highest water levels
are expected with the high tide cycles on Sunday and Monday evening.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Gaines/Robertson
Short Term...Gaines
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Gaines/Johnson/Robertson
Marine...Drag/Gaines/Johnson/Robertson
Tides/Coastal Flooding...




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
333 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the Virginia coast will lift northeast of our
region through the day Sunday. However, a second offshore low is
expected to develop by Monday, before lifting away from the region
on Tuesday. A ridge will build over our region mid week. By Friday,
the ridge is expected to shift east as another low begins to slide
over the Great Plains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface low pressure will continue to move northeastward and
out to sea tonight. However, a upper low level pressure system to
our northwest will continue to be a focal mechanism for some
scattered light showers across the region tonight with a decrease
overnight in coverage. The more concentrated showers along the shore
will move offshore early this evening. With cloudy skies,
temperatures will be slow to fall tonight falling into the upper
40`s and low 50`s. Fairly good model agreement with the forecast for
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
The upper level low pressure system that will be to our northwest
will drop southward on Sunday. The 12z GFS/CMC/UKMET are a bit
further west than the 12Z ECMWF with this feature. With this
forecast package, we opted to go with a slightly more west track of
the low. This could potentially keep the highest coverage of showers
across Eastern Pennsylvania throughout the day. The areal coverage of
showers looks to be of a diurnal nature as low level lapse rates
steepen (instability mechanism) to increase the coverage by the
afternoon. Rainfall amounts are going to be light but a continued
low freezing level around 10,000 feet may result in a few showers
containing pea size hail in the afternoon hours. Coverage of
hail looks to low to place in forecast attm.

The track of the low will also effect the high temperatures. A
further east and cloudier ECMWF keeps highs down in the low and mid
60`s for most. On the other hand, A further west low track would
allow for breaks of sunshine and a chance at 70 degrees for Delaware
and New Jersey.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Monday through Tuesday...As the upper level short wave trough digs
and intensifies over the Mid Atlantic, a surface low will
subsequently develop off the coast of VA/NC. As a result, expect the
work week to begin with much of the same weather pattern we`re
seeing this weekend. Northeasterly flow will temper max temperatures
a bit, staying slightly below normal. However, thanks to air mass
modification, we should see a modest warming trend into Tuesday and
highs may be near normals. The moisture advection, thanks to
persistent onshore flow, and synoptic scale lift thanks to the upper
level low will result in continued rain chances. How quickly we dry
out will be dependent on how quickly the low lifts out of the
region. On this point, there are some slight differences between the
models with the GFS being a bit slower to clear everything out.
Would expect the bulk of the precipitation to be done by mid day
Tuesday as the flow turns more northwesterly, but a few showers
could linger into Tuesday evening.

Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level ridge shifts east, with the
ridge axis over our region by Thursday morning, bringing a lull in
rain chances and a very noticeable warming trend, with 80s expected
across much of the region both days.

Friday and Saturday...ridge shifts further east offshore through
this time, leaving our region on the periphery of the ridge. As
such, could see primarily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms as shortwave troughs embedded in the upper level SW
flow slide over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight: Mainly VFR through early evening, some MVFR possible from
KPHL and southeast with the steadiest showers through early
evening. Ceilings will gradually lower by late evening likely
becoming IFR for the overnight hours. Some MVFR VSBY restrictions
will also occur throughout the night as well. Winds will be
easterly- northeasterly around 10 knots.

Sunday: Ceilings will start off IFR/MVFR in the pre-dawn hours and
gradually lift to VFR by the afternoon. Chance for some brief
scattered showers to impact TAF site, to low of a chance for TAF
inclusion attm. Northerly winds around 10 knots.

Outlook...

Monday and Tuesday...Occasional MVFR conditions possible with
showers and fog especially Monday night.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR conditions likely. Small chance of MVFR
conditions with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA starting at 4 pm this afternoon. Easterly winds have increased
but are still only around 20 knots on the bay attm. A window still
looks present for some easterly wind gusts near 25 knots by
evening both on the ocean and in Delaware Bay. Seas will be slow to
rise and should get above five feet tonight on the ocean.

Sunday: Winds will be more northerly and lighter. However wave
heights will still run from five to eight feet. SCA in effect.

RIP CURRENTS...Moderate risk for rip currents today as well with
the onshore flow and increasing easterly winds. A cool, raw day to
be out at the beach. Rip current forecast will be updated this
evening for Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday night into Monday...Seas are expected through this
period and could be at or above 5 feet as early as Monday morning
(especially on the southern coastal waters).

Monday night...SCA conditions are likely on the coastal waters,
primarily for seas above 5 feet, though gusts near or above 20 kt
are possible.

Tuesday...seas should slowly subside, though SCA conditions may
linger through much of the day.

Tuesday night through Thursday...winds and seas should stay below
SCA criteria.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With the full moon today (Saturday), and on shore flow developing
later today and persisting through at least Sunday morning, tide
levels should be higher than normal on the Atlantic oceanfront and
the Delaware Bay. However, we expect water levels to fall short of
minor flooding thresholds at this point. The highest water levels
are expected with the high tide cycles on Sunday and Monday evening.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Gaines
Short Term...Gaines
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Gaines/Johnson
Marine...Gaines/Johnson
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Johnson




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
920 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will deepen off the Virginia coast today and move
offshore tonight and Sunday. An upper air disturbance will remain
across the area from Sunday through Tuesday. High pressure will
ridge across the area Wednesday and remain for part of Thursday.
Another disturbance will arrive for the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An upper-level trough from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley will
gradually shift eastward through the day. As this occurs, low-level
warm air advection will assist in strengthening isentropic lift. An
area of pressure falls is forecast to take place off the coast of
Virginia, which will allow surface low pressure to develop through
the day. The combination of the surface low development, isentropic
lift and large scale ascent incoming from the west will result in an
area of rain moving across much of the area today.

The forecast challenge is the timing and pin-pointing the area where
the heavier rain sets up. An initial area of warm advection rain
across western Pennsylvania is forecast by much of the guidance to
weaken some as it moves east-northeast this morning. As this occurs,
surface low development to our south allows more focused lift to
shift southeastward. The NAM looks to compact regarding its rain
shield despite its surface low closer to the coast. If this occurs,
then even less rain would fall across the western zones. The latest
thinking is that all areas get into the rain by the end of the day,
however did slow down the pop increase for awhile with a
northeastern extent. The heaviest rainfall is mainly from near the I-
95 corridor on south and eastward given the coastal surface low
development. Given increasing moisture and lift, the rain may become
moderate at times mainly across the southern and eastern areas.

As the surface low develops and starts to track northeastward, the
pressure gradient tightens to its north. This results in breezy
conditions developing closer to the coast. At this time, any
instability looks rather meager given the onshore flow therefore
thunder was not added.

As for the high temperatures, we used mostly a continuity/MOS blend.
With the strengthening onshore flow, clouds and incoming rain, we
are expecting a cool day. The northern areas may get warmer prior to
the rain arriving. With the rainy areas taking on a more triangle
look leaving the Philly Metro potentially drier for longer today,
high temperatures may edge out a few degrees warmer along with
northern NJ.

With the 9:30 am update, the rain shield coming into western
parts of the region has encountered some drier air at the surface.
Radar returns are showing moderate to heavy rain falling in Berks
county PA southward into the Delmarva. However, only very light is
currently reaching the ground. Pops were trimmed back after
reviewing recent modeling trends in the HRRR and RAP which show
this area of rain decaying late this morning and the area of
rainfall with coastal low forming further eastward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
The upper-level trough is forecast to sharpen across the east
tonight as an omega blocking pattern develops. This will drive
surface low pressure northeastward and away from our area. As this
occurs, the pressure gradient relaxes and therefore the winds that
start out a bit gusty along the coast will diminish at least some.

As the forcing shifts offshore with the surface low, any steadier
rain is expected to also shift offshore early with some showers
lingering. The showers will mostly be driven by the amplifying upper-
level trough. These showers may be more organized just to our west
within the trough axis itself. We therefore lowered pops some
through the night but allowed for at least scattered showers through
the overnight. With the idea of abundance of clouds around through
the night, temperatures should not drop off considerably but it will
be cool.

As for the low temperatures, we used mostly a MOS blend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper air pattern will change considerably this week and by
week`s end it will feel more like summer. The pattern begins with
a closed low across the Middle Atlantic and northeast U.S. This
low will fill and exit off into the Atlantic Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The upper low will bring mostly unsettled conditions
with scattered showers much of the time and a chc for an afternoon
tstm across southern NJ and the Delmarva Monday. Temperatures
from Sunday thru Tuesday will be mostly below normal...but cloud
be at normal levels on Tuesday...depending on how much influence
the upper low still has at this time.

On Wednesday...Upper heights will rise and sfc high pressure will
settle across the area. Under fair skies...temperatures will
climb above normal...something which has not happened much during
May. Highs in the low 80s are expected at this time.

The warm weather will continue for the rest of the extended
period...but rain chcs will also increase for Thursday and into
Friday. By this time, several short waves from the Midwest will
have traveled across the Ohio Valley and across the Middle
Atlantic. Pops will mostly be in the chc range for now, since the
details will not be able to be resolved until the week progresses
a little more. Our pops are a good fit with our neighboring
offices. Thunder will be possible during the period with the added
instability with abundant daytime heating.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

Today...VFR ceilings lowering to MVFR this afternoon, then IFR
toward late afternoon. KABE and KRDG may remain at VFR ceilings all
day. Rain overspreads the area from southwest to northeast from
about 14-18z. The heaviest rain should be near and south/east of
KPHL. Light southeast winds, becoming east then northeast and
increasing to 10-15 knots this afternoon with some gusts to 20
knots. The strongest winds are expected to be closer to the coast.

Tonight...MVFR to IFR conditions overall, with perhaps VFR ceilings
lingering at KABE. The greatest chance for IFR conditions should be
from KILG to KPHL/KPNE to KTTN on south and east. LIFR ceilings
cannot be ruled out at KMIV and KACY. Any remaining steady rain
tapers early to some showers with some visibility restrictions at
times. Northeast winds 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots
early (less at KABE and KRDG), diminishing through the overnight.

outlook...
Sunday thru Tuesday...VFR most of the time. Sct Showers thru the
    period may temporarily lower CIGS or VSBYS to MVFR/IFR.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR expected. Fog possible Tue
    night.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will develop off the Virginia coast during the course
of today, then move out to sea tonight. The pressure gradient will
tighten today as a result with an onshore flow therefore increasing.
It appears that the NAM is a bit aggressive with the surface low
since it is more consolidated and stronger. We leaned toward a
weaker wind field and therefore gales are not anticipated at this
time. The strengthening wind field spreading north looks to take
longer today, therefore we delayed the start time of the Small Craft
Advisory from south to north. Given the surface low track and
pressure gradient, we are more confident on the southern waters. The
increasing winds will build the seas with these becoming more robust
later today and tonight from south to north. The winds should drop
below advisory criteria this evening therefore we kept the 02z
ending time.

Moderate risk for rip currents today as well with the onshore
flow and increasing easterly winds. A cool, raw day to be out at
the beach.

outlook...
Sunday and Sunday night...SCA seas expected to continue on the
   Ocean. Sub-SCA conditions across Delaware Bay.
Monday and Monday night...SCA conditions possible on the Ocean with
   the lingering effects of the coastal storm. Seas 3-5 ft.
Tue thru Wed...Mostly Sub SCA conditions expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ450-451.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Gaines/Gorse
Short Term...Gorse
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Gorse/O`Hara
Marine...Gorse/O`Hara
Tides/Coastal Flooding...




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
304 PM MST SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...To Aviation Discussion...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A large region of low pressure will continue over the Western states
through next weekend. There will be day to day fluctuations in
temperatures and afternoon breeziness as the system waxes and wanes.
Overall though, temperatures will remain below normal and conditions
will remain dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today through Thursday...
Afternoon temperatures are running a few degrees cooler than
yesterday afternoon over south- central AZ with less change over
southwest AZ and even a bit of warming over southeast CA. This is
roughly 10 degrees below normal. Winds are lighter than yesterday
especially over southeast CA. Looking at the large scale flow
pattern, there is a split flow at multiple points within the
Westerlies. At high latitudes there is Rex pattern of sorts at high
latitudes with upper lows being centered over far northeast Canada
and the Bering Sea and ridging in between (even extending far north
of Alaska). Within the undercutting flow, there is a series of ridges
and troughs over the northeast Pacific and North America. One of
those troughs is over the western states and within it are multiple
vort maxes/lobes. The models are in good agreement that the trough
will wobble and morph as these vort maxes move through and an East
Coast low exits. However, troughing will remain over the West. Thus,
temps remain below normal. In the Tuesday through Thursday time
frame, the southern end of a reconfigured trough moves
through. This will lead to breezy to locally windy conditions (most
noticeably on Tuesday) and a small dip in temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday. However, not seeing enough moisture for a precip threat
over our forecast area.

Friday through Sunday...
Heading into the weekend, some measure of western troughing will
persist though the magnitude/depth of the height anomalies are
somewhat uncertain. Regardless, there is no ensemble member
indicating any amount of ridging through the Southwest, so a
continuation of slightly below normal temperatures looks like a very
good bet.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX...KIWA and KSDL...
Aftn/evening winds will generally hold west headings with some
gustiness up to 20kts. Some drift off west is likely (and has been
occurring on and off throughout the day) and VRB winds are possible
for short periods. Under continued clear skies, typical evening
southeasterly trends will develop ranging 7 to 9 kts.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH...
KIPL winds will maintain some westerly component into the evening and
overnight hours, with another sundowner/breezy downslope westerlies
for the terminal this evening with some gusts in the 20kt range. Sfc
pressure gradient along the CO River Valley have not allowed any
dominant heading to settle in for KBLH, so will keep VRB in through
the evening before south-southwest winds develop for field overnight.
Clear skies to continue.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
Fire weather concerns throughout the period will be minimal.
Below normal temperatures and dry conditions can be anticipated each
day. Minimum humidity values will be between 10 to 15 percent with
good overnight recoveries. In addition, winds will range between 5
to 15 mph with stronger afternoon breezes.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...AJ/MO
AVIATION...Nolte
FIRE WEATHER...Hernandez



  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
228 PM PDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler than normal conditions can be expected for much
of the week. In addition, there is a slight chance for showers
tomorrow and Tuesday especially for higher elevation locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 2:30 PM PDT Sunday...Just looking at
temperatures across our region today would not give you a clue at
the time of year. During many mid-to-late May days, inland spots
are well into the 80s with even 90s not out of the question.
Instead, almost all areas are in the 60s. This is due to the
overall pattern which has a cool nw flow aloft moving across our
CWA due to a system over the Northern Rockies plus an upper level
longwave trof.

Models show the general pattern will not change much through the week
with the overall flow forecast to remain from the nw while two
systems rotate through. Moisture will be very limited in our
region, however it will lead to some instability which will kick
off clouds plus even some spotty showers both Monday and Tuesday.
Thunderstorm remain an outside risk as well particularly tomorrow
afternoon as lifted values drop to around zero. Best chance for
that would be over far eastern parts of the CWA. Any rain that
falls should be light with less than 1/10" forecast. Due to the
pattern temperatures will stay mostly in the 60s to lower 70s
which would translate to as much as 10 degrees cooler than normal.

Currently do not see favorable conditions create weather related
hazards of note for the entire week.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 10:52 AM PDT Sunday...Low clouds prevail across
the area as a result of a very moist boundary layer. MVFR cigs
expected across area terminals this morning with clearing
anticipated after noon today. Light onshore flow will prevail with
an afternoon seabreeze increasing winds across KSFO and KOAK to 15
to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt this afternoon.

Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR cigs will prevail til 19Z-20Z this
morning. Light onshore flow will prevail with an afternoon
seabreeze increasing winds across KSFO and KOAK to 15 to 20 kt
with gusts to 25 kt this afternoon as the onshore gradient from
SFO-SAC increases to approx 3 mb.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions will prevail through this
evening. Generally light onshore winds through forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...as of 02:30 PM PDT Sunday...A weakening trough of low
pressure situated over the Western U.S. will maintain light
northwesterly winds and seas across the coastal waters through
early next week. Winds will strengthen by midweek as high pressure
builds over the eastern pacific.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...None.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Bell
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW


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  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
208 PM PDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler than normal temperatures will continue over the central
California interior for much of this week as an upper level trough
resides along the west coast. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
Monday through Thursday over the southern Sierra Nevada.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The combination of an onshore flow and an upper
level trough along the West coast is keeping temperatures below
normal across the CWA again this afternoon, despite a good deal of
sunshine in most areas. The air is cold enough aloft to generate
some cumulus clouds over the higher terrain this afternoon but
stability indices are strong enough to cap any deep convection.
The atmosphere will become increasingly unstable over the central
Calfornia interior during the next couple of days, however, as an
upper level disturbance rotates through the base of this trough.
By Monday afternoon and evening...isolated showers and tstorms are
possible over the foothills and higher elevations of the Sierra.
Tuesday will likely become more active as the upper level
disturbance hovers near the central California coast. With the
exception of the Kern County desert, thunderstorms could pop up
just about anywhere over the CWA Tuesday and linger until just
after sunset. This even includes the San Joaquin Valley. However,
showers and thunderstorms will probably be more numerous over the
mountains Tuesday afternoon and evening. A recurrence of showers
and thunderstorms is likely over the mountains Wednesday afternoon
as the upper level disturbance drifts into southern California.

A slightly drier and more stable air mass will settle into the
CWA later this week as this feature moves into the Four Corners
region and finally exits into the southern Plains states Friday.
By then, only the highest elevations of the Sierra face a risk of
isolated afternoon thunderstorms.

The models forecast another upper level trough to develop along
the West Coast next weekend. We are not very confident that there
will be enough moisture and instability associated with this
trough to generate any more than cumulus buildups over the Sierra
by next Sunday. The GFS deepens this trough more significantly
than the ECM, so if this solution ends up being right, we will
probably not get through the entire Memorial Day weekend without
at least a slight chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra. This
is something hikers and back packers will need to keep on the
back of their minds if their destination includes the high Sierra
during the holiday weekend.

The good news is that temperatures will average cooler than normal
during the next week or so. Of the next 7 days, Friday looks to
be the warmest day. Even then, high temps will still fall at least
a few degrees shy of climatological normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR ceilings can be expected along the north facing slopes
of the Tehachapi mountains and the west facing slopes of the Sierra
between 09z and 18z Monday. Isolated thunderstorms will develop over
the Sierra Monday afternoon with local MVFR ceilings. VFR conditions
can be expected elsewhere across the central California interior
during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

public...Durfee
avn/fw...Durfee
synopsis...DS

weather.gov/hanford




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1052 AM PDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level trough over Northern California will
bring continued cooling to the area through the weekend. Another
upper level disturbance could bring a few showers to extreme
North Bay on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 9:15 AM PDT Sunday...Mix of clouds and sun
across our CWA this morning after areas of drizzle and sprinkles
overnight. Lots of reports of light accumulations. Cooler than
normal day expected with a northwesterly flow aloft due to a
system centered near Idaho/Western Montana. Highs will mostly be
in the 60s even in far-inland locations that are often over 80
this time of year. Precipitation is expected to be well to our
north, although HRRR and NAM do hint at a few minor showers this
afternoon over the hills. Will do an update to the grids to put in
a mention of rain for those spots.

Interesting to note that the longer range guidance has us in a
general trof pattern with no indication of a ridge of high
pressure building back to the coast at least the next 8 days.

.Previous Discussion...Satellite imagery shows a few low clouds
have formed over portions of the district, mainly over portions of
the North and East Bay, as well as northern San Benito county.
Temperature trends are running similar to those from yesterday at
this time with readings in the upper 40s to mid 50s, with dew
points in the mid to upper 40s.

Today is expected to be generally a nice day with highs ranging
from the upper 50s to lower 60s at the coast, to the 70s inland.
on Monday, another upper low will approach the area giving another
chance of showers to extreme northern Sonoma and Napa counties by
the afternoon. This will be repeated again on Tuesday with a
slight chance of showers again for the far north North Bay areas.

After midweek, the upper trough will begin to shift eastward as
high pressure rebuilds over the Eastern Pacific. This will bring
in a bit of a warming trend that will persist through the
remainder of the forecast period, with dry conditions as well.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 10:52 AM PDT Sunday...Low clouds prevail across
the area as a result of a very moist boundary layer. MVFR cigs
expected across area terminals this morning with clearing
anticipated after noon today. Light onshore flow will prevail with
an afternoon seabreeze increasing winds across KSFO and KOAK to 15
to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt this afternoon.

Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR cigs will prevail til 19Z-20Z this
morning. Light onshore flow will prevail with an afternoon
seabreeze increasing winds across KSFO and KOAK to 15 to 20 kt
with gusts to 25 kt this afternoon as the onshore gradient from
SFO-SAC increases to approx 3 mb.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions will prevail through this
evening. Generally light onshore winds through forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...as of 10:44 AM PDT Sunday...A weakening upper low is
over the region. expect light nw winds over generally light seas
through early this week. stronger nw winds will likely return by
wednesday and thursday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...None.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Bell/Sims
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RC/CW


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

 955 AM PDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A weaker marine layer over the area will keep a partly cloudy
skies in place through Sunday. Low clouds and fog will be a
staple of the forecast for much of the work week next week as a
broad and persistent trough of low pressure remains centered over
the West Coast. Enough instability may move over the area early
next to bring afternoon showers and thunderstorms to the mountains
and patchy night through morning drizzle to the Southland.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE)

Lots of sunshine this morning as a weak inversion prevented any
sort of solid marine lyr from developing overnight. Still plenty
of low lvl moisture around and we should see seom stratocu
developing through the day, especially inland with some afternoon
heating. Temperatures again below normal but mild.

Overnight tonight models again not showing much of an inversion
setting up south of pt conception. There is a weak coastal eddy
circulation developing and plenty of low lvl moisture, but without
that inversion it`s hard to see anything more than just random
clouds around. There`s a stronger inversion along the central
coast so better chance of a solid cloud deck developing there.

Similar day Monday with little change in temps/sky cover. Models
appear to have backed off the instability Monday afternoon as LI`s
are barely negative and CAPE is under 200 j/kg.

***From previous discussion***

The upper low sets up camp over the bay area Tuesday and dry sw
flow with lower than normal hgts sets up over Srn CA. The onshore
flow and the cyclonic turning aloft will keep up the night
through morning low cloud regime going as well as the blo normal
temps. There will be enough instability over the mtns for some
afternoon cu but there will not be enough moisture for showers or
tstms to develop.

.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)

On Wednesday the upper low moves into the northern section of the
forecast area. The now relentless night through morning low
clouds and fog patter along with blo normal max temps will
continue. In addition the cool air pool aloft assoc with the upper
low will produce enough mountain instability for a slight chc of
showers or tstms.

Dry nw flow sets up for Thu and Fri. Still plenty of onshore flow
to keep the night through morning low cloud pattern going...but
the slightly higher hgts will smoosh the marine layer down enough
to keep it out of portions of the vlys. Max temps will rise a
little but will still be slightly blo normal.

Another upper low is on track to move into the state on Saturday.
If this comes true there will be more low clouds and lower max
temps.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1635Z...

At 1630Z, there was no marine inversion at KLAX.

Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF package. High confidence
in VFR conditions continuing for all sites through this evening.
Overnight, a significant inversion is not anticipated to develop.
So, low cloud formation will be random for coastal and valley TAF
sites. Therefore, relatively low confidence in coastal/valley
forecasts tonight/Monday morning.

KLAX...moderate confidence in 18z TAF. There is a 15% chance of
a brief period of MVFR cigs 18Z-00Z. For tonight, only moderate
confidence in return of MVFR cigs to the airfield (50% chance that
skies will remain clear).

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of a
brief period of MVFR cigs 18Z-00Z. For tonight, moderate
confidence in VFR forecast (30% chance of MVFR cigs 10Z-17Z).
&&

.MARINE...22/830 AM...

For the Outer Waters, good confidence in current forecast. High
confidence in SCA level winds continuing across the southern two
thirds through this evening. For Monday and Tuesday, winds and
seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. However by Wednesday
and Thursday, winds will increase with a good chance of SCA
conditions developing.

For the Inner Waters, good confidence in current forecast.
Overall, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels
through Wednesday. However, there will likely be some local gusts
to 25 knots in the afternoon and evening hours across the waters
north of Point Sal and across western sections of the southern
Inner Waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday For
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
914 AM PDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level trough over Northern California will
bring continued cooling to the area through the weekend. Another
upper level disturbance could bring a few showers to extreme
North Bay on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 9:15 AM PDT Sunday...Mix of clouds and sun
across our CWA this morning after areas of drizzle and sprinkles
overnight. Lots of reports of light accumulations. Cooler than
normal day expected with a northwesterly flow aloft due to a
system centered near Idaho/Western Montana. Highs will mostly be
in the 60s even in far-inland locations that are often over 80
this time of year. Precipitation is expected to be well to our
north, although HRRR and NAM do hint at a few minor showers this
afternoon over the hills. Will do an update to the grids to put in
a mention of rain for those spots.

Interesting to note that the longer range guidance has us in a
general trof pattern with no indication of a ridge of high
pressure building back to the coast at least the next 8 days.

.Previous Discussion...Satellite imagery shows a few low clouds
have formed over portions of the district, mainly over portions of
the North and East Bay, as well as northern San Benito county.
Temperature trends are running similar to those from yesterday at
this time with readings in the upper 40s to mid 50s, with dew
points in the mid to upper 40s.

Today is expected to be generally a nice day with highs ranging
from the upper 50s to lower 60s at the coast, to the 70s inland.
on Monday, another upper low will approach the area giving another
chance of showers to extreme northern Sonoma and Napa counties by
the afternoon. This will be repeated again on Tuesday with a
slight chance of showers again for the far north North Bay areas.

After midweek, the upper trough will begin to shift eastward as
high pressure rebuilds over the Eastern Pacific. This will bring
in a bit of a warming trend that will persist through the
remainder of the forecast period, with dry conditions as well.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 5:00 AM PDT Sunday...Moist boundary layer will
result in patchy low clouds across the region this morning. VFR/MVFR
cigs expected across area terminals this morning with patchy
IFR/LIFR conditions at select terminals. Low clouds will scatter
out around 17z. Light onshore flow will prevail with an afternoon
seabreeze increasing winds across KSFO and KOAK to 15 to 20 kt
with gusts to 25 kt this afternoon.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR/MVFR cigs will prevail til 17Z this morning.
Light onshore flow will prevail with an afternoon seabreeze
increasing winds across KSFO and KOAK to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to
25 kt this afternoon as the onshore gradient from SFO-SAC
increases to approx 3 mb.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR/MVFR cigs will prevail til 17Z this
morning. Generally light onshore winds through forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...as of 9:15 AM PDT Sunday...A weakening upper low is
over the region. Expect light NW winds over generally light seas
through early this week. Stronger NW winds will likely return by
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...None.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Bell/Sims
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW


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