Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/21/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
847 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Windy and mild continue through these periods. This early
afternoon, southwest winds have been in the 30s to low 40s mph in
the western valleys, 40s to mid 50s in the western mountains.
These winds will be increasing over the next 36 hours as the upper
Low over northern California tracks slowly to the northeast. Gusty
winds are expected to continue and strengthen over high exposed
terrain tonight, even mixing into a few western valley locations.
Elsewhere valleys will have shallow inversions keeping overnight
low temperatures mild. MSLP gradient and 700-600MB winds increase
on Saturday. Therefore have issued another Wind Advisory for
eastern Utah including the mountains, and spreading a bit further
into far western Colorado. Another mild night expected Saturday
night as a cold front works across Utah.
Afternoon convection has been minimal and less than forecasted.
Overall this spring the models seem to be overproducing QPF.
Therefore have lowered POPs for the weekend.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. The cold front
works through the forecast area, strongest forcing across the
north. But the moisture will have eroded from PW values around 0.7
inch now to around 0.3 on Sunday. So showers will be minimal. An
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave still timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
VFR conditions dominate. Isolated mainly mountain thunderstorms
should be circumnavigable. moderate to strong turbulence is the
main threat as southwest winds will gust to 30-40 mph this
afternoon and again on Saturday. Tonight strong southwest winds
will continue over higher terrain mixing into western TAF sites at
times, including KCNY KTEX. Low level wind shear will be possible
at all TAF sites through 18z Saturday when the inversions are
expected to break.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ003.
Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ001-006-020.
UT...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ023-025-028.
Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JOE
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
728 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 728 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Only isolated showers were able to briefly push through the
cirrus shield over the forecast area this afternoon, and those
have all dissipated. 00Z soundings from Denver and Grand Junction
show a stable layer, more pronounced on the Grand Junction
sounding. The cap is expected to remain in place through the rest
of the night so no further storm threat.
The eastern plains will see another round of low clouds and
fog, and even some drizzle overnight as moisture continues to
increase in stronger southeast flow. The low clouds and fog may
wrap back as far as the northern sections of Denver by early
Saturday morning with the aid of a Denver cyclone, but main threat
would be from northern Larimer and Weld counties east and
southeast to around Akron, Limon, and points east. Overall
forecast on track, just removed evening thunder and added areas of
drizzle to the eastern plains. Also increased winds on the plains
Saturday afternoon with good mixing and strong pressure gradient
in place.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Current radar and satellite imagery showing increasing convection
over the foothills and northern portions of the CWA. The surface
low that was in place on the lee side of the mountains has
degraded bringing sfc flow more southerly over the eastern
portions of the CWA. A dry line is setting up along a line from
Weld county SE into Washington that will increase CAPE and
convection in that region for storms moving off the northern
foothills. Steering flow is SE so many storms may instead move into
WY vs east across our northern counties. Still maintain a chance
of thunderstorms in the mountains and foothills with a slight
chance on the plains. Further south mid level temperatures will
most likely be too warm for much convection so storms will most
likely produce some light rain and gusty winds.
For tonight the storms will wind down around 5 pm and storms will
end from west to east. Pressure falls ahead of an approaching
trough over CA will again turn winds on the plains more SE. This
will help to usher in increasing moisture west onto the plains.
Models are indicating a Denver cyclone setting up to the north of
the city that will help to pull moisture more west. At this time
will keep the city of Denver and DIA under patchy fog conditions
with heavier areas of fog further east and north. This low fog and
increased moisture will lift into a lowered stratus that will
delay initial warming...however with dry SW flow increasing
through the day conditions should still warm to lower 80s for much
of the plains. Convection is looking less probable with most areas
capped. Kept a slight chance of storms in the mountains with
decent lapse and CAPE values above 1000 j/kg at higher elevations
but have kept it mostly over the far eastern portions of the CWA
for late afternoon. Do not expect severe but light to moderate
rainshowers and gusty winds will be possible with the stronger
storms.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Drier air will move over the area Saturday night. There will just
be a slight chance for thunderstorms during the evening over the
northern mountains and far eastern plains.
Sunday will be warm ahead of a cold front that will push through
during the day. Highs are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower
80s across northeast Colorado. Moisture is somewhat limited
Sunday and will keep convection isolated. Best chance for storms
will be over the higher terrain and northeast corner of the
state. If enough moisture hangs on over the northeast corner
there could be a couple strong to severe thunderstorms.
It will be cooler Monday behind this system. There should be
enough moisture and instability for another round of isolated
showers and thunderstorms. Most of them will be found over the
higher terrain.
A weak southwest flow aloft will persist Tuesday through Friday
over Colorado. Mainly isolated afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms are expected. May be a better chance for storms
Thursday and Friday as an upper level trough moves into the
central Rockies. Temperatures will be at or slightly below normal
Tuesday through Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 728 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
VFR conditions will prevail, although there is still a brief
window of fog potential from 12Z-15Z Saturday. Denver cyclone
will support stratus and fog development over the eastern plains,
wrapping it back toward the Front Range late tonight and early
Saturday morning. Main threat is still from KFNL and KGXY east to
KAKO, KLIC, and points east. At KDEN and KBJC probability of fog
is only about 20% right now, but still something to watch closely
as any fog development would likely take the visibility down to
1/4SM. No threat of thunder for the Front Range airports and KDEN
through Saturday evening. Southerly winds near 15-20 knots with a
few gusts near 25 knots til 06z gradually weakening and becoming
variable by Saturday morning. Then expect them to increase again
and have bumped up KDEN and KAPA to near 20 knots with gusts 25-30
knots expected to develop by 20Z Saturday during peak heating and
mixing.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
608 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 607 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Quick update to incorporate latest obs and satellite data. Pared
back pops to just isolated over the higher terrain for a few hours
this eve, otherwise feel that the HRR is overdone. Rest of
forecast package looks good at this time, with some fog developing
and moving into portions of the e plains overnight. Moore
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Not many adjustments required from earlier forecast reasoning with
primary near/short term meteorological concerns for the forecast
district being isolated pops, areas of low clouds and fog developing
over eastern sections later tonight, temperatures and gusty winds at
times.
Forecast district currently graced by variable clouds, locally gusty
winds, isolated shower and thunderstorm activity, primarily to the
north of the CWFA and generally above seasonal late May afternoon
temperatures.
Recent real-time data, PV analysis, forecast model soundings and
computer simulations indicate that relatively dry southwesterly
upper flow will prevail over the forecast district during the next
24 hours, however enough atmospheric moisture interacting with the
daily orographic heating cycle and a passing weak upper disturbance
will be capable of generating isolated showers and
thunderstorms(some potentially strong at times), into this evening,
primarily over eastern portions of the CWFA. In addition, have
depicted areas of low clouds and fog developing later tonight over
primarily eastern portions of the forecast district.
Gusty winds are also anticipated at times during the next 24 hours,
however per recent direction of area land agencies, will refrain
from any fire weather highlights as fuels are not favorable.
Finally, above seasonal temperatures are expected to continue over
the majority of the forecast district during the next 24 hours.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
A generally dry and warm period is anticipated during this long term
forecast period as the region will be under modest southwesterly
flow aloft. I anticipate the dryline will remain primarily to the
east of the forecast area...so the probability of severe convection
is low. the only exception to this may be late in the period as the
guidance shows a stronger disturbance moving across the region
during the Thursday/Friday time frame.
for later this weekend (Sunday)...it will be quite warm...dry and
windy across the region. Meteorological conditions will be favorable
for extreme fire behavior...however after talking to the folks at
Pueblo Dispatch...fuels are not conducive to rapid spread.
Likewise...no fire weather hilites will be issued. Max temps both
days will be well into the 80s across the Plains...and a 90 or
two is not out of the question. Southwest wind gusts to 25 to 35
mph are likely.
a cold front will cross the area Sunday night...and a bit cooler
weather is expected for Monday. However...it will remain quite dry
in the low levels after fropa...and very little if any thunder is
expected over the region Monday afternoon. If thunder does
occur...it will likely be in the Pikes Peak region and central mtn
areas.
Dry southwesterly flow at lower levels will likely develop once
again Tuesday and last into Thursday. By late in the week...the
stronger disturbance discussed above will move across the region and
this may back the llvl winds enough to bring llvl moisture into the
region which may allow for thunderstorms over the plains late Thu
afternoon and possibly Fri afternoon. This disturbance late in the
week will also bring a better chance of tsra to the mtns.
/Hodanish
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Isolated later afternoon into evening showers and thunderstorms will
be possible over sections of the district...primarily near the KCOS
taf site into this evening. However, still anticipate that
southwesterly upper flow will allow VFR conditions to continue over
the KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites into Saturday. In addition, have
also depicted areas of low clouds/fog over some eastern locations
from later tonight into early Saturday morning, with low
clouds/areas of fog possibly encroaching the KCOS and KPUB taf sites
during this time-frame...WFO PUB will monitor closely.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...77
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
342 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Windy and mild continue through these periods. This early
afternoon, southwest winds have been in the 30s to low 40s mph in
the western valleys, 40s to mid 50s in the western mountains.
These winds will be increasing over the next 36 hours as the upper
Low over northern California tracks slowly to the northeast. Gusty
winds are expected to continue and strengthen over high exposed
terrain tonight, even mixing into a few western valley locations.
Elsewhere valleys will have shallow inversions keeping overnight
low temperatures mild. MSLP gradient and 700-600MB winds increase
on Saturday. Therefore have issued another Wind Advisory for
eastern Utah including the mountains, and spreading a bit further
into far western Colorado. Another mild night expected Saturday
night as a cold front works across Utah.
Afternoon convection has been minimal and less than forecasted.
Overall this spring the models seem to be overproducing QPF.
Therefore have lowered POPs for the weekend.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. The cold front
works through the forecast area, strongest forcing across the
north. But the moisture will have eroded from PW values around 0.7
inch now to around 0.3 on Sunday. So showers will be minimal. An
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave still timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
VFR conditions dominate. Isolated mainly mountain thunderstorms
should be circumnavigable. moderate to strong turbulence is the
main threat as southwest winds will gust to 30-40 mph this
afternoon and again on Saturday. Tonight strong southwest winds
will continue over higher terrain mixing into western TAF sites at
times, including KCNY KTEX. Low level wind shear will be possible
at all TAF sites through 18z Saturday when the inversions are
expected to break.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JOE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
337 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Not many adjustments required from earlier forecast reasoning with
primary near/short term meteorological concerns for the forecast
district being isolated pops, areas of low clouds and fog developing
over eastern sections later tonight, temperatures and gusty winds at
times.
Forecast district currently graced by variable clouds, locally gusty
winds, isolated shower and thunderstorm activity, primarily to the
north of the CWFA and generally above seasonal late May afternoon
temperatures.
Recent real-time data, PV analysis, forecast model soundings and
computer simulations indicate that relatively dry southwesterly
upper flow will prevail over the forecast district during the next
24 hours, however enough atmospheric moisture interacting with the
daily orographic heating cycle and a passing weak upper disturbance
will be capable of generating isolated showers and
thunderstorms(some potentially strong at times), into this evening,
primarily over eastern portions of the CWFA. In addition, have
depicted areas of low clouds and fog developing later tonight over
primarily eastern portions of the forecast district.
Gusty winds are also anticipated at times during the next 24 hours,
however per recent direction of area land agencies, will refrain
from any fire weather highlights as fuels are not favorable.
Finally, above seasonal temperatures are expected to continue over
the majority of the forecast district during the next 24 hours.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
A generally dry and warm period is anticipated during this long term
forecast period as the region will be under modest southwesterly
flow aloft. I anticipate the dryline will remain primarily to the
east of the forecast area...so the probability of severe convection
is low. the only exception to this may be late in the period as the
guidance shows a stronger disturbance moving across the region
during the Thursday/Friday time frame.
for later this weekend (Sunday)...it will be quite warm...dry and
windy across the region. Meteorological conditions will be favorable
for extreme fire behavior...however after talking to the folks at
Pueblo Dispatch...fuels are not conducive to rapid spread.
Likewise...no fire weather hilites will be issued. Max temps both
days will be well into the 80s across the Plains...and a 90 or
two is not out of the question. Southwest wind gusts to 25 to 35
mph are likely.
a cold front will cross the area Sunday night...and a bit cooler
weather is expected for Monday. However...it will remain quite dry
in the low levels after fropa...and very little if any thunder is
expected over the region Monday afternoon. If thunder does
occur...it will likely be in the Pikes Peak region and central mtn
areas.
Dry southwesterly flow at lower levels will likely develop once
again Tuesday and last into Thursday. By late in the week...the
stronger disturbance discussed above will move across the region and
this may back the llvl winds enough to bring llvl moisture into the
region which may allow for thunderstorms over the plains late Thu
afternoon and possibly Fri afternoon. This disturbance late in the
week will also bring a better chance of tsra to the mtns.
/Hodanish
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Isolated later afternoon into evening showers and thunderstorms will
be possible over sections of the district...primarily near the KCOS
taf site into this evening. However, still anticipate that
southwesterly upper flow will allow VFR conditions to continue over
the KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites into Saturday. In addition, have
also depicted areas of low clouds/fog over some eastern locations
from later tonight into early Saturday morning, with low
clouds/areas of fog possibly encroaching the KCOS and KPUB taf sites
during this time-frame...WFO PUB will monitor closely.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...77
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1130 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
The shortrange models appear on track in positioning the low
center along the Oregon coast this morning. Satellite images show
the circulation center over extreme sw Oregon and sliding
gradually east. The jet curved cyclonically from the San
Francisco area over central Nevada then turn more to the north
over western Montana. The tightest gradient was edging toward
western Utah. This wind band will move east today and cause winds
to increase over eastern UT and western CO this afternoon and
evening. The gradient should be tight enough to bring wind
advisory level wind speeds to the lower elevations of SE UT and
extreme NW CO. Gusts to 45 mph are probable. The only factor that
could hamper this will be the band of mid and high cloud the will
advect over the area.
The main wind band is projected over the forecast area Saturday so
believe windy conditions will continue. Cloud cover should thicken
as well so have held off and any wind highlights at this time as
the cloud cover may interfere with vertical mixing.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring
increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern
mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a
storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new
week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft
MSL.
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
AREA BUT TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS REACHING 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH 02Z OR SO.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW WITH WINDS POSSIBLY
GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ001.
UT...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1126 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 451 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Increased coverage of stratus and fog across Pueblo county through
the early morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicating
generally weak west to southwest flow aloft across the state with
upper level ridging building across the Rockies ahead of broad upper
trough digging across the West Coast at this time. Water vapor
imagery is also indicating mid and upper level moisture streaming
out ahead of this system across the Desert Southwest and into the
Great Basin. At the surface, a deepening LHX low and associated east
to southeast low level winds across the far southeast plains is
keeping dew pts in the upper 30s to upper 40s, and has helped to
develop stratus from eastern portions of El Paso county through
portions of Otero, Kiowa, Prowers and Baca counties at this time.
Today and Tonight...
No big changes to ongoing forecast, with slowly increasing southwest
flow aloft expected across the region as the West Coast upper trough
continues to dig into the Desert Southwest, pushing the upper ridge
across the far eastern plains and into western Kansas tonight.
Warming aloft, denoted by WAA clouds spreading into western CO at
this time, will continue to warm temperatures back to at and above
seasonal levels today, with highs in the 70s and 80s across the
lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain.
Models continue to indicate enough moisture in place to support
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area this
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected across the
central mountains into the Pikes Peak region. Surface low pressure
to persist across the plains today, with breezy east to southeast
winds helping to advect low level moisture across the far southeast
plains into northeastern CO through the afternoon...where latest SPC
outlook has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today. With the
upper ridge building across the southeast plains, convection looks
to be capped today, however, storms which can develop across the
Pikes Peak region could quickly strengthen as they move north and
east off the Palmer Dvd and into northeastern CO. Convection to
diminish and end after sun set with clearing skies overnight, save
the far se plains, where could see some stratus develop once again
overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Western U.S. upper low drifts slowly back northward on
Saturday, keeping deep southwest flow in place across all of
southern Colorado. Moisture across the region looks very limited,
with just some weak, high-based convection possible over the
central mountains. Over the plains, dryline will be lurking near
the KS border, but most model guidance keeps deeper
moisture/instability just east of the state line, and will go with
a dry forecast over the plains for now. Deep mixing Saturday will
lead to very warm and breezy conditions area-wide, and a few
locations on the plains will approach 90f by late afternoon. Upper
low tracks northeastward into Canada Sunday, with southwest flow
continuing across Colorado. Dryline appears to mix well east of
the KS border in the afternoon, and will keep pops out of the
plains once again as dry air mass spreads eastward from the
mountains. Mid levels do moisten slightly by afternoon over the
higher terrain, and may be just enough instability for some high
based -tsra, though with dry surface layer, precip will likely be
very light. All of the area will see another day of very warm and
windy conditions, though max temps may drift downward a couple
degf as heights fall slightly by Sat evening.
Weak cold front drops south through the plains Sunday evening,
though any upslope surge should be short-lived as new energy drops
into the western U.S. upper trough, with southwest flow reforming
a lee surface low over ern CO during the day Mon. Moisture remains
limited Mon, with again only a few high based mountain storms
possible. Pattern persists Tue/Wed as wrn trough continues to
deepen, keeping sw flow aloft in place with only limited moisture
across the area. Models hint at occasional shallow moisture
sloshing into ern CO both Tue and Wed mornings, before mixing
quickly eastward as dry sw flow reaches the surface later in the
day. Will keep mainly just some low pops in place over the
mountains for both Tue and Wed afternoons, though again precip
coverage/intensity will be rather sparse/weak. Deeper moisture
makes a better push into southern CO Thu/Fri as energy from the
western trough finally begins to push eastward and gives cold
front a stronger shove southward. Still some timing differences
among various models, but main message is a gradual increase in
precip chances both days as moisture and lift both ramp up. Max
temps Mon-Wed will stay rather warm, then drift downward slowly
late week as cooler air filters south.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE KCOS TAF SITE...ANTICIPATE THAT SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL
ALLOW GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
422 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicating
generally weak west to southwest flow aloft across the state with
upper level ridging building across the Rockies ahead of broad upper
trough digging across the West Coast at this time. Water vapor
imagery is also indicating mid and upper level moisture streaming
out ahead of this system across the Desert Southwest and into the
Great Basin. At the surface, a deepening LHX low and associated east
to southeast low level winds across the far southeast plains is
keeping dew pts in the upper 30s to upper 40s, and has helped to
develop stratus from eastern portions of El Paso county through
portions of Otero, Kiowa, Prowers and Baca counties at this time.
Today and Tonight...
No big changes to ongoing forecast, with slowly increasing southwest
flow aloft expected across the region as the West Coast upper trough
continues to dig into the Desert Southwest, pushing the upper ridge
across the far eastern plains and into western Kansas tonight.
Warming aloft, denoted by WAA clouds spreading into western CO at
this time, will continue to warm temperatures back to at and above
seasonal levels today, with highs in the 70s and 80s across the
lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain.
Models continue to indicate enough moisture in place to support
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area this
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected across the
central mountains into the Pikes Peak region. Surface low pressure
to persist across the plains today, with breezy east to southeast
winds helping to advect low level moisture across the far southeast
plains into northeastern CO through the afternoon...where latest SPC
outlook has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today. With the
upper ridge building across the southeast plains, convection looks
to be capped today, however, storms which can develop across the
Pikes Peak region could quickly strengthen as they move north and
east off the Palmer Dvd and into northeastern CO. Convection to
diminish and end after sun set with clearing skies overnight, save
the far se plains, where could see some stratus develop once again
overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Western U.S. upper low drifts slowly back northward on
Saturday, keeping deep southwest flow in place across all of
southern Colorado. Moisture across the region looks very limited,
with just some weak, high-based convection possible over the
central mountains. Over the plains, dryline will be lurking near
the KS border, but most model guidance keeps deeper
moisture/instability just east of the state line, and will go with
a dry forecast over the plains for now. Deep mixing Saturday will
lead to very warm and breezy conditions area-wide, and a few
locations on the plains will approach 90f by late afternoon. Upper
low tracks northeastward into Canada Sunday, with southwest flow
continuing across Colorado. Dryline appears to mix well east of
the KS border in the afternoon, and will keep pops out of the
plains once again as dry air mass spreads eastward from the
mountains. Mid levels do moisten slightly by afternoon over the
higher terrain, and may be just enough instability for some high
based -tsra, though with dry surface layer, precip will likely be
very light. All of the area will see another day of very warm and
windy conditions, though max temps may drift downward a couple
degf as heights fall slightly by Sat evening.
Weak cold front drops south through the plains Sunday evening,
though any upslope surge should be short-lived as new energy drops
into the western U.S. upper trough, with southwest flow reforming
a lee surface low over ern CO during the day Mon. Moisture remains
limited Mon, with again only a few high based mountain storms
possible. Pattern persists Tue/Wed as wrn trough continues to
deepen, keeping sw flow aloft in place with only limited moisture
across the area. Models hint at occasional shallow moisture
sloshing into ern CO both Tue and Wed mornings, before mixing
quickly eastward as dry sw flow reaches the surface later in the
day. Will keep mainly just some low pops in place over the
mountains for both Tue and Wed afternoons, though again precip
coverage/intensity will be rather sparse/weak. Deeper moisture
makes a better push into southern CO Thu/Fri as energy from the
western trough finally begins to push eastward and gives cold
front a stronger shove southward. Still some timing differences
among various models, but main message is a gradual increase in
precip chances both days as moisture and lift both ramp up. Max
temps Mon-Wed will stay rather warm, then drift downward slowly
late week as cooler air filters south.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
COS, PUB and ALS should remain VFR for the next 24 hours. There is
some patchy stratus across eastern El Paso county this morning,
though this should not make into COS terminal. There also remains
a low probability of a few afternoon and evening storms over the
eastern mts and Palmer Divide, but do not expect them to impact
the VC COS. Winds will be a bit stronger today with surface winds
10-20 KTS generally from the SE over the plains and S-SW over the
San Luis Valley. Convection to diminish after sun set with
clearing skies overnight.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1101 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Forecast models are consistent and add confidence for forecast
details. The upper low over Washington state will sink into
northern California on Friday. Northwest flow aloft this evening
backs to southwest on Friday with the strongest gradient over
Utah. Afternoon wind gusts of around 45 mph are expected so a Wind
Advisory has been issued for SE Utah and far NW Colorado. These
stronger wind gusts should diminish in the valleys early Friday
evening though exposed higher terrain should have gusty winds
through the night. There is enough residual moisture to set off
late- day, mainly- mountain convection. Associated virga or light
showers could produce locally stronger winds.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Saturday, the low works into eastern Oregon stretched across the
western Great Basin. Southwest gradient winds will increase a few
mph, but cloud cover may inhibit vertical mixing and valley wind
gusts somewhat.
Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring
increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern
mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a
storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new
week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft
MSL.
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1101 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Isolated showers over the higher terrain will continue here and
there through midmorning, but pose little threat to airport
operations. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will increase in
coverage and intensity over the higher terrain from late morning
into the evening in response to daytime warming. Meanwhile, winds
will become strong as a storm system moves southward into northern
California and northwest Nevada, especially over southeast Utah
and northwest Colorado. Wind gusts in excess of 45 MPH are likely
in the areas just mentioned, but will decrease after 8 PM MDT.
Outflow winds from thunderstorms could top 50 MPH.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ001.
UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...NL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1051 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken over the next
few hours as nocturnal processes become dominant. Decided to cut
down pops over the Rampart, Wet, and Sangre de Cristo Mtns as
shower activity continues to wane. Latest model guidance continues
to suggest shower activity moving into the Central Mtns from the
west during the early morning hours...thus decided to rise pops
slightly over the Central and northern San Juan Mtns. Otherwise,
the current forecast remains on track. Lukinbeal/Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Currently...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring
across the region at 2 pm. the best coverage of storms were over the
Wet and Sangre mtns. a few showers/-tsra were noted over the I-25
corridor and san luis valley.
upper low was located over the sc KS area and flow aloft was from
the N-NW. This flow was allowing for a few showers to move onto the
plains.
Temps across the region were seasonable...with readings in the 50s
to L70s across the Plains...and 50s and 60s in the valleys.
Rest of today into tonight...
Scattered showers will continue over the higher trrn with more isold
activity expected over the valleys and the plains adjacent to the
mtns into the early evening hours. Once the sun sets...showers will
come to an end. The only exception will be the Central mtns were
some showers may approach this region towards sunrise as a weak
disturbance moves across the central part of the State.
Temps tonight will be seasonable with lows in the 40s across the
plains and 30s in the valleys. /Hodanish
Tomorrow...
Drier sw flow aloft moves over the fcst region. Although we will see
some isold tsra over the mtns and possibly the plains...I expect we
will see less coverage than what we have seen today. Temperatures
will continue to warm...and expect another 10 degree warming...with
highs in the mid 80s across a good part of the Plains. Overall best
chance of precip tomorrow will likely be the c mtn area.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Friday night through Sunday...Long range models agree on placing an
upper low pressure system over the West Coast Fri night and Sat,
producing brisk SW flow aloft across the 4 Corners as well as very
warm temps for the forecast area. Save for isolated convection over
the mts, and mainly the central mts, each aftn and eve, conditions
will remain dry for much of the CWA. Look for max temps in the upper
60s to mid 70s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to upper 80s for
the plains. The upper low migrates to the north and slides across
the Northern Rockies on Sun, pushing a cold front down into eastern
CO Sun night.
Monday through Thursday...As the one upper feature passes to the
northeast, another upper trough of low pressure develops over
Northern CA and the Pacific NW. This will once again produce
southwest flow aloft across the 4 Corners. Multiple disturbances in
the upper flow will cross the state, serving as the trigger for
scattered convection over the mts, and isolated activity for the
plains, for Tue and Wed. Therefore, look for isolated mt convection
on Mon with aftn temps about 10 degrees cooler than on Sun.
Convective activity increases for all areas Tue and Wed, with max
temps in the 70s to around 80 F for the plains, and in the 60s for
the high valleys. The upper low to the west finally starts to make a
move towards CO on Thu, which will likely mean cooler temps and a
higher probability for some showers and storms. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1044 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
TAF sites should remain VFR for the next 24-30 hours. There is a
low probability of a few afternoon and evening storms over the
Palmer Divide...but they should not impact the VC KCOS. Winds
will be a bit stronger tomorrow...with surface winds generally
from the SE over the plains and S-SW over the San Luis Valley.
Rose
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LUKINBEAL/MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
853 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken over the next
few hours as noctoral processes become dominate. Decided to cut
down pops over the Rampart, Wet, and Sangre de Cristo Mtns as
shower activity continues to wane. Latest model guidance continues
to suggest shower activity moving into the Central Mtns from the
west during the early morning hours...thus decided to rise pops
slightly over the Central and northern San Juan Mtns. Otherwise,
the current forecast remains on track. Lukinbeal/Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Currently...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring
across the region at 2 pm. the best coverage of storms were over the
Wet and Sangre mtns. a few showers/-tsra were noted over the I-25
corridor and san luis valley.
upper low was located over the sc KS area and flow aloft was from
the N-NW. This flow was allowing for a few showers to move onto the
plains.
Temps across the region were seasonable...with readings in the 50s
to L70s across the Plains...and 50s and 60s in the valleys.
Rest of today into tonight...
Scattered showers will continue over the higher trrn with more isold
activity expected over the valleys and the plains adjacent to the
mtns into the early evening hours. Once the sun sets...showers will
come to an end. The only exception will be the Central mtns were
some showers may approach this region towards sunrise as a weak
disturbance moves across the central part of the State.
Temps tonight will be seasonable with lows in the 40s across the
plains and 30s in the valleys. /Hodanish
Tomorrow...
Drier sw flow aloft moves over the fcst region. Although we will see
some isold tsra over the mtns and possibly the plains...I expect we
will see less coverage than what we have seen today. Temperatures
will continue to warm...and expect another 10 degree warming...with
highs in the mid 80s across a good part of the Plains. Overall best
chance of precip tomorrow will likely be the c mtn area.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Friday night through Sunday...Long range models agree on placing an
upper low pressure system over the West Coast Fri night and Sat,
producing brisk SW flow aloft across the 4 Corners as well as very
warm temps for the forecast area. Save for isolated convection over
the mts, and mainly the central mts, each aftn and eve, conditions
will remain dry for much of the CWA. Look for max temps in the upper
60s to mid 70s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to upper 80s for
the plains. The upper low migrates to the north and slides across
the Northern Rockies on Sun, pushing a cold front down into eastern
CO Sun night.
Monday through Thursday...As the one upper feature passes to the
northeast, another upper trough of low pressure develops over
Northern CA and the Pacific NW. This will once again produce
southwest flow aloft across the 4 Corners. Multiple disturbances in
the upper flow will cross the state, serving as the trigger for
scattered convection over the mts, and isolated activity for the
plains, for Tue and Wed. Therefore, look for isolated mt convection
on Mon with aftn temps about 10 degrees cooler than on Sun.
Convective activity increases for all areas Tue and Wed, with max
temps in the 70s to around 80 F for the plains, and in the 60s for
the high valleys. The upper low to the west finally starts to make a
move towards CO on Thu, which will likely mean cooler temps and a
higher probability for some showers and storms. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
VFR conditions anticipated during the next 24h at all 3 taf
sites...kpub...kcos and kals. winds will be light and diurnally
driven.
isold weak -tsra will be possible this afternoon at evening at all 3
taf sites...but probability is low that they will occur. the best
chance of any precip will be over KCOS.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LUKINBEAL/MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
401 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Forecast models are consistent and add confidence for forecast
details. The upper low over Washington state will sink into
northern California on Friday. Northwest flow aloft this evening
backs to southwest on Friday with the strongest gradient over
Utah. Afternoon wind gusts of around 45 mph are expected so a Wind
Advisory has been issued for SE Utah and far NW Colorado. These
stronger wind gusts should diminish in the valleys early Friday
evening though exposed higher terrain should have gusty winds
through the night. There is enough residual moisture to set off
late- day, mainly- mountain convection. Associated virga or light
showers could produce locally stronger winds.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Saturday, the low works into eastern Oregon stretched across the
western Great Basin. Southwest gradient winds will increase a few
mph, but cloud cover may inhibit vertical mixing and valley wind
gusts somewhat.
Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring
increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern
mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a
storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new
week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft
MSL.
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Most of the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will end
by 03z. some turbulence is expected to develop overnight and
southwest winds aloft strengthen. Gusty southwest winds will begin
to mix into TAF sites around 18z Saturday. Afternoon gusts of 45
mph are possible mainly at KCNY KTEX with gusts to 30 to 40 mph
elsewhere. Isolated afternoon showers and virga threaten locally
very strong wind gusts.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ001.
UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JOE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1232 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016
A transitory ridge will move across the area today. This will
help remove a bit of the moisture that has been over the forecast
area and suppress s some of the convective development this
afternoon and evening. The next big pacific storm will move down
the west coast from the pacnw to northern ca tonight and friday.
The ridgeline will move east of the area friday and that will
allow increase southerly surface winds ahead of the large trough
along the west coast. Have increased wind speeds and gusts across
the board friday. The pacific storm will slowly move inland friday
but the forecast area should remain under a dry slot. The big
story will be increasing south to southwest winds friday
afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed May 18 2016
A large upper level low will sink south and then stall in the
vicinity of the interior Pac NW states by Saturday. We will be in
the tighter gradient region between this low and the ridge of high
pressure over the central U.S. Saturday and Sunday which will
bring a breezy to windy and warm pattern to our region. Cannot
rule out isolated diurnal convection over the higher terrain
Friday and Saturday...but should have a little better coverage on
Sunday as a minor upper level trough moves through. As the upper
level low weakens and moves north, individual shortwave troughs
caught in the broad long wave trough over the western U.s. will
begin to cross the region every 36 hours or so next week.
Precipitable water values will be about half what they are
now...so expect only isolated mainly diurnally driven convection
over the mountains each day. After Saturday, as the region comes
under the trough aloft, temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
isold shower and a few storms will fire this afternoon though
coverage is expected to be less than seen yesterday. convection
will form over mountains so main concerns aviation-wise will be
mtn tafs including kase...kege...and ktex where vcts looks good
for now. kmtj and kdro may see some activity but confidence not
high enough to include in taf attm. most precip will end by 03z
with next concern being gusty winds tomorrow starting after 17z or
so. gusts of 30 to even 40 mph are possible at times. the
strongest winds are expected over kcny with lesser winds
elsewhere.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1112 AM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Some low stratus and fog has developed over portions of El Paso
county this morning. The San Luis Valley also has some low clouds
this morning. The HRRR and nam are suggesting the stratus should
dissipate by 15-16z this morning.
An upr trof wl be to the east ovr KS and TX today, with a shortwave
ridge ovr CO through tonight. There wl be enough mstr ovr the area
today for isold to sct showers and tstms to develop ovr the mtns and
high valleys, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Could
even see a couple showers/storms move out ovr the I-25 corridor.
high temps today wl be warmer than yesterday and should generally be
just a few degrees below average.
by late tonight most if not all pcpn should end. however, toward
morning the nam is suggesting an area of pcpn could move into the
CONTDVD, but the gfs is dry. it looks like low stratus could
develop tonight ovr portions of the sern plains, mainly from KLHX
and eastward, although it also looks like portions of El Paso county
may also see the low clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Friday-Saturday...A warmer and drier weather pattern continues to be
in the offing as upper level ridging builds into the region on
Friday, with southwest flow aloft increasing into Saturday ahead of
EPAC energy digging across the West Coast and into the Great Basin.
Enough residual moisture will be in place to support isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms both days, mainly
over and near the higher terrain. Storms that do develop look to be
higher based, with lightning and gusty winds the main threats.
Latest models are indicating fairly deep mixing across the area on
Saturday supporting breezy south to southwest winds into the
afternoon and early evening and pushing dry line well into Kansas.
Warming aloft continues across the area with temperatures warming
back to at and above seasonal levels with highs in the 70s and 80s
across the lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher
terrain. Breezy winds...warm temps and low afternoon humidities to
lead to increased fire danger on Saturday, however, with green up
well underway, do not think fuels across the area will be critical.
Saturday night-Monday...Moderate to strong southwest flow aloft
progged across the region as the Great Basin system lifts out across
the northern Rockies on Monday. Pattern keeps the area warm and
breezy, with isolated to scattered storms possible over and near the
higher terrain. There could be a few stronger storms across the far
southeast plains Saturday night and Sunday, with the dry line
possibly retrograding back near the Kansas border. Should see
temperatures remaining AOA seasonal averages through the period.
Tuesday-Wednesday...Latest model guidance is indicating moderate
west to southwest flow aloft across the region, with occasional
embedded short waves translating across the Rockies. This pattern
would lead to generally warm and breezy conditions across the area,
with chances of showers and storms associated with the passing
waves, mainly over and near the higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1059 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016
VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24h at all 3 taf
sites...KPUB...KALS and KCOS. Surface winds will be light and
diurnally driven. Brief -TSRA will be possible at the 3 taf sites
this afternoon and early evening...with locally gusty winds
possible with the -TSRA.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
657 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016
Early this morning surface high pressure was centered just southwest
of the Great Lakes region, resulting in light southerly winds across
the forecast area. With the exception of a few mid-level clouds,
skies were mostly clear, resulting in decent radiational cooling and
early morning temperatures dropping into the mid/upper 40s by
sunrise. Despite low dewpoint depressions early this morning, do
not anticipate fog development as there isn`t much surface moisture.
However, cannot entirely rule out the potential for some isolated
areas of very shallow fog, primarily near bodies of water.
A mid-level trough was located over New Mexico this morning, and
models show this trough gradually lifting northeastward into Kansas
by this afternoon and into this evening. While there will be
increased moisture advection into the area with this approaching
wave, model soundings show only some scattered mid-level clouds by
mid to late morning with the better moisture advection and increased
cloud cover occurring during the afternoon hours. As a result,
expect temperatures to quickly rise this morning, reaching into the
60s by late morning. The temperature rises will slow down during the
afternoon with the increased cloud cover, however still expect
afternoon high temperatures to reach into the upper 60s to around 70
degrees. Expect increased lift to extend northward into the forecast
area by mid to late afternoon as the mid-level trough advances into
the area. This increased moisture and lift should support the
development of some scattered showers, possibly as early as by mid-
afternoon, with better chances during the late evening and overnight
hours as the trough tracks overhead. Models show the potential for
some weak and very shallow instability, but don`t feel it`s enough
to support thunderstorm development. The best potential for these
light rain showers will be focused across east central Kansas, with
there being some model uncertainty with just how far west these
isolated to scattered showers may develop across the forecast area.
QPF amounts should be low at around one-tenth of an inch or less.
With the overcast skies in place, expect temperatures to be a few
degrees warmer tonight with lows in the lower 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016
Upper trough till move off to the east and into Missouri by Friday
afternoon and should bring an end to the showers by late morning in
northeast and east central Kansas. An upper level ridge builds into
the Plains as an upper level low and trough gradually builds
eastward into the western U.S. Friday night and Saturday. A few
elevated showers or storms may develop within the low level jet
early Saturday across parts of western and central Kansas and may
just clip some of the southwest counties early Saturday.
Temperatures will also be on the rise as the ridge builds in and
heights rise, should see highs in the mid 70s after morning lows in
the 50s. Elevated showers or thunderstorms will be possible across
western Kansas and could clip parts of north central Kansas late
Saturday night and early Sunday. Later Sunday night storms firing
off the dryline in western Kansas as waves eject northeast out into
the Plains may maintain themselves and move into north central
Kansas and northeast Kansas. A pacific front along with the dryline
will push east and southeast into north central and southwest Kansas
by 12Z Monday morning. The frontal boundary will be a focus for
additional storms in the afternoon as another wave in the southwest
flow works its way across the Plains. Shear and instability are
favorable for strong to severe storms across parts of the area. The
boundary looks to stall or retreat westward as a stronger wave dives
southward in the base of the upper trough on Tuesday. Expect ongoing
morning convection across northeast Kansas on Tuesday with possible
redevelopment in the afternoon along the front upper level trough
will move out of the Rockies and into the Plains on Thursday.
Retreating surface high will initiate southerly flow into the
central and eastern Kansas. Lift increases in the afternoon hours as
the upper trough moves into central Kansas in the afternoon, that
combined with increasing moisture will set the stage for some light
showers to develop in the afternoon. The upper trough will move over
eastern Kansas Thursday night with the trough axis moving off into
Missouri by the afternoon hours. With weak lapse rates expect
showers primarily. An upper level ridge builds in the area Saturday
with dry weather expected along with warming temperatures. An upper
level trough will be in place across the western U.S. Sunday. A wave
is forecast to eject out of the base of the trough and clip western
Kansas. Highs pressure ridge extending from the Great Lakes
southwest into eastern Kansas on Sunday will focus the best moisture
return into the High Plains of western Kansas. Storms moving off of
the dryline may maintain and move into central Kansas late in the
day. Veering low level jet may maintain a cluster of storms which
may affect north central and northeast Kansas. Moisture and
instability axis will be focused across central and eastern Kansas
ahead of a dryline in western Kansas. A frontal boundary will move
southeast into western parts of central Kansas by Tuesday morning as
an upper level trough tracks northeast out of the Rockies and across
the Northern Plains Monday night. With southwest flow across the
Plains and ejecting waves out of the western trough expect on and
off again chances for showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday.
Shear, instability and moisture will be favorable ahead of the
dryline and frontal boundary for strong to severe storms across
eastern Kansas Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will gradually warm
each day with highs in the 70s for the weekend and in the lower 80s
for Monday and Tuesday.ontal boundary in central Kansas. Storm
chances continue into Wednesday with the upper trough moving east
across the Rockies and into the High Plains by Thursday morning.
Wave will eject northeast across Kansas and with the frontal boundary
near the western counties expect thunderstorms to develop in the
afternoon and move northeast across the area. Temperatures are
expected to warm into the 80s for the Monday through Wednesday time
period and overnight lows primarily in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016
For the 12z TAFs, expect increasing low and mid-level cloud cover
through the day and into tonight as a system lifts northward into
the area. While cigs should remain VFR for KTOP/KFOE, model
soundings suggest that borderline MVFR/VFR cigs will be possible
overnight at KMHK. While models show scattered rain showers
developing across the area with this advancing wave, there is a
vast spread amongst the model solutions regarding (a) the timing
of precipitation lifting northward into the area, and (b) what
locations have the best potential for seeing this scattered
precipitation. Several models were holding off on these scattered
showers near the TAF sites until this evening, however recent runs
of the HRRR and RAP suggest these showers may move over the TAF
sites as early as this afternoon. Due to the uncertainty in timing
and location, only have a mention of VCSH at this time for
KTOP/KFOE.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
325 AM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sat May 21 2016
The center of a large low pressure system continues rotating in
place over southeast Oregon. Its cold front will stretch north to
south across Utah today and make little progress east. The strong
low level wind band and jet stream will also slowly move east over
western and central Utah. This will cause surface winds to nudge
up again today. Increasing cloud cover may inhibit some mixing but
given the predicted gradient it shouldn`t matter much. The wind
advisories for eastern Utah (with the exception of the Eastern
Uinta Basin) and portions of extreme western Colorado are well
justified. Have held off expanding them further east as the
tighter pressure gradient doesn`t seem to spread much east of the
colorado and utah border until this evening and overnight.
On Sunday the low center makes little progress east and instead
lifts to the northeast into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. The cold front
will move through the forecast area, but the strongest forcing
will remain across the north. The portion of the system moving
through the forecast area will remain moisture starved so only
isolated at best thunderstorm coverage is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave still timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sat May 21 2016
Turbulence from strong south to southwest winds will be widespread
the next 24 hours. All taf sites will experience windy conditions.
There is a chance that blowing dust may affect visibility over the
area, especially over southeast Utah and southwest Colorado. Low
level wind shear is also possible this morning and late tonight.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
for COZ003.
Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
COZ001-006-020.
UT...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
for UTZ023-025-028.
Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1140 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Windy and mild continue through these periods. This early
afternoon, southwest winds have been in the 30s to low 40s mph in
the western valleys, 40s to mid 50s in the western mountains.
These winds will be increasing over the next 36 hours as the upper
Low over northern California tracks slowly to the northeast. Gusty
winds are expected to continue and strengthen over high exposed
terrain tonight, even mixing into a few western valley locations.
Elsewhere valleys will have shallow inversions keeping overnight
low temperatures mild. MSLP gradient and 700-600MB winds increase
on Saturday. Therefore have issued another Wind Advisory for
eastern Utah including the mountains, and spreading a bit further
into far western Colorado. Another mild night expected Saturday
night as a cold front works across Utah.
Afternoon convection has been minimal and less than forecasted.
Overall this spring the models seem to be overproducing QPF.
Therefore have lowered POPs for the weekend.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. The cold front
works through the forecast area, strongest forcing across the
north. But the moisture will have eroded from PW values around 0.7
inch now to around 0.3 on Sunday. So showers will be minimal. An
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave still timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1140 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
There will be little chance for showers across eastern Utah and
western Colorado during the remainder of the night as drier air
originating from the southwest moves overhead. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will develop over the eastern Uinta mountains
during the afternoon as the cold front associated with the deep
low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest pushes into
northeast Utah. This activity will continue into the evening.
However, there remains little chance for showers at airports
across the region and therefore, VFR conditions will prevail with
CIGS remaining above ILS breakpoints. However, as the pressure
gradient increases ahead of the front winds aloft will strengthen
from the southwest. This will result in low level wind shear at
some airports across the area until midday when daytime heating
causes winds aloft to mix with the surface layer.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ003.
Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ001-006-020.
UT...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ023-025-028.
Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...NL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
847 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Windy and mild continue through these periods. This early
afternoon, southwest winds have been in the 30s to low 40s mph in
the western valleys, 40s to mid 50s in the western mountains.
These winds will be increasing over the next 36 hours as the upper
Low over northern California tracks slowly to the northeast. Gusty
winds are expected to continue and strengthen over high exposed
terrain tonight, even mixing into a few western valley locations.
Elsewhere valleys will have shallow inversions keeping overnight
low temperatures mild. MSLP gradient and 700-600MB winds increase
on Saturday. Therefore have issued another Wind Advisory for
eastern Utah including the mountains, and spreading a bit further
into far western Colorado. Another mild night expected Saturday
night as a cold front works across Utah.
Afternoon convection has been minimal and less than forecasted.
Overall this spring the models seem to be overproducing QPF.
Therefore have lowered POPs for the weekend.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. The cold front
works through the forecast area, strongest forcing across the
north. But the moisture will have eroded from PW values around 0.7
inch now to around 0.3 on Sunday. So showers will be minimal. An
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave still timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
VFR conditions dominate. Isolated mainly mountain thunderstorms
should be circumnavigable. moderate to strong turbulence is the
main threat as southwest winds will gust to 30-40 mph this
afternoon and again on Saturday. Tonight strong southwest winds
will continue over higher terrain mixing into western TAF sites at
times, including KCNY KTEX. Low level wind shear will be possible
at all TAF sites through 18z Saturday when the inversions are
expected to break.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ003.
Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ001-006-020.
UT...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ023-025-028.
Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JOE
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
728 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 728 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Only isolated showers were able to briefly push through the
cirrus shield over the forecast area this afternoon, and those
have all dissipated. 00Z soundings from Denver and Grand Junction
show a stable layer, more pronounced on the Grand Junction
sounding. The cap is expected to remain in place through the rest
of the night so no further storm threat.
The eastern plains will see another round of low clouds and
fog, and even some drizzle overnight as moisture continues to
increase in stronger southeast flow. The low clouds and fog may
wrap back as far as the northern sections of Denver by early
Saturday morning with the aid of a Denver cyclone, but main threat
would be from northern Larimer and Weld counties east and
southeast to around Akron, Limon, and points east. Overall
forecast on track, just removed evening thunder and added areas of
drizzle to the eastern plains. Also increased winds on the plains
Saturday afternoon with good mixing and strong pressure gradient
in place.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Current radar and satellite imagery showing increasing convection
over the foothills and northern portions of the CWA. The surface
low that was in place on the lee side of the mountains has
degraded bringing sfc flow more southerly over the eastern
portions of the CWA. A dry line is setting up along a line from
Weld county SE into Washington that will increase CAPE and
convection in that region for storms moving off the northern
foothills. Steering flow is SE so many storms may instead move into
WY vs east across our northern counties. Still maintain a chance
of thunderstorms in the mountains and foothills with a slight
chance on the plains. Further south mid level temperatures will
most likely be too warm for much convection so storms will most
likely produce some light rain and gusty winds.
For tonight the storms will wind down around 5 pm and storms will
end from west to east. Pressure falls ahead of an approaching
trough over CA will again turn winds on the plains more SE. This
will help to usher in increasing moisture west onto the plains.
Models are indicating a Denver cyclone setting up to the north of
the city that will help to pull moisture more west. At this time
will keep the city of Denver and DIA under patchy fog conditions
with heavier areas of fog further east and north. This low fog and
increased moisture will lift into a lowered stratus that will
delay initial warming...however with dry SW flow increasing
through the day conditions should still warm to lower 80s for much
of the plains. Convection is looking less probable with most areas
capped. Kept a slight chance of storms in the mountains with
decent lapse and CAPE values above 1000 j/kg at higher elevations
but have kept it mostly over the far eastern portions of the CWA
for late afternoon. Do not expect severe but light to moderate
rainshowers and gusty winds will be possible with the stronger
storms.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Drier air will move over the area Saturday night. There will just
be a slight chance for thunderstorms during the evening over the
northern mountains and far eastern plains.
Sunday will be warm ahead of a cold front that will push through
during the day. Highs are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower
80s across northeast Colorado. Moisture is somewhat limited
Sunday and will keep convection isolated. Best chance for storms
will be over the higher terrain and northeast corner of the
state. If enough moisture hangs on over the northeast corner
there could be a couple strong to severe thunderstorms.
It will be cooler Monday behind this system. There should be
enough moisture and instability for another round of isolated
showers and thunderstorms. Most of them will be found over the
higher terrain.
A weak southwest flow aloft will persist Tuesday through Friday
over Colorado. Mainly isolated afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms are expected. May be a better chance for storms
Thursday and Friday as an upper level trough moves into the
central Rockies. Temperatures will be at or slightly below normal
Tuesday through Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 728 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
VFR conditions will prevail, although there is still a brief
window of fog potential from 12Z-15Z Saturday. Denver cyclone
will support stratus and fog development over the eastern plains,
wrapping it back toward the Front Range late tonight and early
Saturday morning. Main threat is still from KFNL and KGXY east to
KAKO, KLIC, and points east. At KDEN and KBJC probability of fog
is only about 20% right now, but still something to watch closely
as any fog development would likely take the visibility down to
1/4SM. No threat of thunder for the Front Range airports and KDEN
through Saturday evening. Southerly winds near 15-20 knots with a
few gusts near 25 knots til 06z gradually weakening and becoming
variable by Saturday morning. Then expect them to increase again
and have bumped up KDEN and KAPA to near 20 knots with gusts 25-30
knots expected to develop by 20Z Saturday during peak heating and
mixing.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
608 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 607 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Quick update to incorporate latest obs and satellite data. Pared
back pops to just isolated over the higher terrain for a few hours
this eve, otherwise feel that the HRR is overdone. Rest of
forecast package looks good at this time, with some fog developing
and moving into portions of the e plains overnight. Moore
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Not many adjustments required from earlier forecast reasoning with
primary near/short term meteorological concerns for the forecast
district being isolated pops, areas of low clouds and fog developing
over eastern sections later tonight, temperatures and gusty winds at
times.
Forecast district currently graced by variable clouds, locally gusty
winds, isolated shower and thunderstorm activity, primarily to the
north of the CWFA and generally above seasonal late May afternoon
temperatures.
Recent real-time data, PV analysis, forecast model soundings and
computer simulations indicate that relatively dry southwesterly
upper flow will prevail over the forecast district during the next
24 hours, however enough atmospheric moisture interacting with the
daily orographic heating cycle and a passing weak upper disturbance
will be capable of generating isolated showers and
thunderstorms(some potentially strong at times), into this evening,
primarily over eastern portions of the CWFA. In addition, have
depicted areas of low clouds and fog developing later tonight over
primarily eastern portions of the forecast district.
Gusty winds are also anticipated at times during the next 24 hours,
however per recent direction of area land agencies, will refrain
from any fire weather highlights as fuels are not favorable.
Finally, above seasonal temperatures are expected to continue over
the majority of the forecast district during the next 24 hours.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
A generally dry and warm period is anticipated during this long term
forecast period as the region will be under modest southwesterly
flow aloft. I anticipate the dryline will remain primarily to the
east of the forecast area...so the probability of severe convection
is low. the only exception to this may be late in the period as the
guidance shows a stronger disturbance moving across the region
during the Thursday/Friday time frame.
for later this weekend (Sunday)...it will be quite warm...dry and
windy across the region. Meteorological conditions will be favorable
for extreme fire behavior...however after talking to the folks at
Pueblo Dispatch...fuels are not conducive to rapid spread.
Likewise...no fire weather hilites will be issued. Max temps both
days will be well into the 80s across the Plains...and a 90 or
two is not out of the question. Southwest wind gusts to 25 to 35
mph are likely.
a cold front will cross the area Sunday night...and a bit cooler
weather is expected for Monday. However...it will remain quite dry
in the low levels after fropa...and very little if any thunder is
expected over the region Monday afternoon. If thunder does
occur...it will likely be in the Pikes Peak region and central mtn
areas.
Dry southwesterly flow at lower levels will likely develop once
again Tuesday and last into Thursday. By late in the week...the
stronger disturbance discussed above will move across the region and
this may back the llvl winds enough to bring llvl moisture into the
region which may allow for thunderstorms over the plains late Thu
afternoon and possibly Fri afternoon. This disturbance late in the
week will also bring a better chance of tsra to the mtns.
/Hodanish
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Isolated later afternoon into evening showers and thunderstorms will
be possible over sections of the district...primarily near the KCOS
taf site into this evening. However, still anticipate that
southwesterly upper flow will allow VFR conditions to continue over
the KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites into Saturday. In addition, have
also depicted areas of low clouds/fog over some eastern locations
from later tonight into early Saturday morning, with low
clouds/areas of fog possibly encroaching the KCOS and KPUB taf sites
during this time-frame...WFO PUB will monitor closely.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...77
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
342 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Windy and mild continue through these periods. This early
afternoon, southwest winds have been in the 30s to low 40s mph in
the western valleys, 40s to mid 50s in the western mountains.
These winds will be increasing over the next 36 hours as the upper
Low over northern California tracks slowly to the northeast. Gusty
winds are expected to continue and strengthen over high exposed
terrain tonight, even mixing into a few western valley locations.
Elsewhere valleys will have shallow inversions keeping overnight
low temperatures mild. MSLP gradient and 700-600MB winds increase
on Saturday. Therefore have issued another Wind Advisory for
eastern Utah including the mountains, and spreading a bit further
into far western Colorado. Another mild night expected Saturday
night as a cold front works across Utah.
Afternoon convection has been minimal and less than forecasted.
Overall this spring the models seem to be overproducing QPF.
Therefore have lowered POPs for the weekend.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. The cold front
works through the forecast area, strongest forcing across the
north. But the moisture will have eroded from PW values around 0.7
inch now to around 0.3 on Sunday. So showers will be minimal. An
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave still timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
VFR conditions dominate. Isolated mainly mountain thunderstorms
should be circumnavigable. moderate to strong turbulence is the
main threat as southwest winds will gust to 30-40 mph this
afternoon and again on Saturday. Tonight strong southwest winds
will continue over higher terrain mixing into western TAF sites at
times, including KCNY KTEX. Low level wind shear will be possible
at all TAF sites through 18z Saturday when the inversions are
expected to break.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JOE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
337 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Not many adjustments required from earlier forecast reasoning with
primary near/short term meteorological concerns for the forecast
district being isolated pops, areas of low clouds and fog developing
over eastern sections later tonight, temperatures and gusty winds at
times.
Forecast district currently graced by variable clouds, locally gusty
winds, isolated shower and thunderstorm activity, primarily to the
north of the CWFA and generally above seasonal late May afternoon
temperatures.
Recent real-time data, PV analysis, forecast model soundings and
computer simulations indicate that relatively dry southwesterly
upper flow will prevail over the forecast district during the next
24 hours, however enough atmospheric moisture interacting with the
daily orographic heating cycle and a passing weak upper disturbance
will be capable of generating isolated showers and
thunderstorms(some potentially strong at times), into this evening,
primarily over eastern portions of the CWFA. In addition, have
depicted areas of low clouds and fog developing later tonight over
primarily eastern portions of the forecast district.
Gusty winds are also anticipated at times during the next 24 hours,
however per recent direction of area land agencies, will refrain
from any fire weather highlights as fuels are not favorable.
Finally, above seasonal temperatures are expected to continue over
the majority of the forecast district during the next 24 hours.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
A generally dry and warm period is anticipated during this long term
forecast period as the region will be under modest southwesterly
flow aloft. I anticipate the dryline will remain primarily to the
east of the forecast area...so the probability of severe convection
is low. the only exception to this may be late in the period as the
guidance shows a stronger disturbance moving across the region
during the Thursday/Friday time frame.
for later this weekend (Sunday)...it will be quite warm...dry and
windy across the region. Meteorological conditions will be favorable
for extreme fire behavior...however after talking to the folks at
Pueblo Dispatch...fuels are not conducive to rapid spread.
Likewise...no fire weather hilites will be issued. Max temps both
days will be well into the 80s across the Plains...and a 90 or
two is not out of the question. Southwest wind gusts to 25 to 35
mph are likely.
a cold front will cross the area Sunday night...and a bit cooler
weather is expected for Monday. However...it will remain quite dry
in the low levels after fropa...and very little if any thunder is
expected over the region Monday afternoon. If thunder does
occur...it will likely be in the Pikes Peak region and central mtn
areas.
Dry southwesterly flow at lower levels will likely develop once
again Tuesday and last into Thursday. By late in the week...the
stronger disturbance discussed above will move across the region and
this may back the llvl winds enough to bring llvl moisture into the
region which may allow for thunderstorms over the plains late Thu
afternoon and possibly Fri afternoon. This disturbance late in the
week will also bring a better chance of tsra to the mtns.
/Hodanish
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Isolated later afternoon into evening showers and thunderstorms will
be possible over sections of the district...primarily near the KCOS
taf site into this evening. However, still anticipate that
southwesterly upper flow will allow VFR conditions to continue over
the KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites into Saturday. In addition, have
also depicted areas of low clouds/fog over some eastern locations
from later tonight into early Saturday morning, with low
clouds/areas of fog possibly encroaching the KCOS and KPUB taf sites
during this time-frame...WFO PUB will monitor closely.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...77
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1130 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
The shortrange models appear on track in positioning the low
center along the Oregon coast this morning. Satellite images show
the circulation center over extreme sw Oregon and sliding
gradually east. The jet curved cyclonically from the San
Francisco area over central Nevada then turn more to the north
over western Montana. The tightest gradient was edging toward
western Utah. This wind band will move east today and cause winds
to increase over eastern UT and western CO this afternoon and
evening. The gradient should be tight enough to bring wind
advisory level wind speeds to the lower elevations of SE UT and
extreme NW CO. Gusts to 45 mph are probable. The only factor that
could hamper this will be the band of mid and high cloud the will
advect over the area.
The main wind band is projected over the forecast area Saturday so
believe windy conditions will continue. Cloud cover should thicken
as well so have held off and any wind highlights at this time as
the cloud cover may interfere with vertical mixing.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring
increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern
mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a
storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new
week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft
MSL.
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
AREA BUT TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS REACHING 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH 02Z OR SO.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW WITH WINDS POSSIBLY
GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ001.
UT...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1126 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 451 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Increased coverage of stratus and fog across Pueblo county through
the early morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicating
generally weak west to southwest flow aloft across the state with
upper level ridging building across the Rockies ahead of broad upper
trough digging across the West Coast at this time. Water vapor
imagery is also indicating mid and upper level moisture streaming
out ahead of this system across the Desert Southwest and into the
Great Basin. At the surface, a deepening LHX low and associated east
to southeast low level winds across the far southeast plains is
keeping dew pts in the upper 30s to upper 40s, and has helped to
develop stratus from eastern portions of El Paso county through
portions of Otero, Kiowa, Prowers and Baca counties at this time.
Today and Tonight...
No big changes to ongoing forecast, with slowly increasing southwest
flow aloft expected across the region as the West Coast upper trough
continues to dig into the Desert Southwest, pushing the upper ridge
across the far eastern plains and into western Kansas tonight.
Warming aloft, denoted by WAA clouds spreading into western CO at
this time, will continue to warm temperatures back to at and above
seasonal levels today, with highs in the 70s and 80s across the
lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain.
Models continue to indicate enough moisture in place to support
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area this
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected across the
central mountains into the Pikes Peak region. Surface low pressure
to persist across the plains today, with breezy east to southeast
winds helping to advect low level moisture across the far southeast
plains into northeastern CO through the afternoon...where latest SPC
outlook has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today. With the
upper ridge building across the southeast plains, convection looks
to be capped today, however, storms which can develop across the
Pikes Peak region could quickly strengthen as they move north and
east off the Palmer Dvd and into northeastern CO. Convection to
diminish and end after sun set with clearing skies overnight, save
the far se plains, where could see some stratus develop once again
overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Western U.S. upper low drifts slowly back northward on
Saturday, keeping deep southwest flow in place across all of
southern Colorado. Moisture across the region looks very limited,
with just some weak, high-based convection possible over the
central mountains. Over the plains, dryline will be lurking near
the KS border, but most model guidance keeps deeper
moisture/instability just east of the state line, and will go with
a dry forecast over the plains for now. Deep mixing Saturday will
lead to very warm and breezy conditions area-wide, and a few
locations on the plains will approach 90f by late afternoon. Upper
low tracks northeastward into Canada Sunday, with southwest flow
continuing across Colorado. Dryline appears to mix well east of
the KS border in the afternoon, and will keep pops out of the
plains once again as dry air mass spreads eastward from the
mountains. Mid levels do moisten slightly by afternoon over the
higher terrain, and may be just enough instability for some high
based -tsra, though with dry surface layer, precip will likely be
very light. All of the area will see another day of very warm and
windy conditions, though max temps may drift downward a couple
degf as heights fall slightly by Sat evening.
Weak cold front drops south through the plains Sunday evening,
though any upslope surge should be short-lived as new energy drops
into the western U.S. upper trough, with southwest flow reforming
a lee surface low over ern CO during the day Mon. Moisture remains
limited Mon, with again only a few high based mountain storms
possible. Pattern persists Tue/Wed as wrn trough continues to
deepen, keeping sw flow aloft in place with only limited moisture
across the area. Models hint at occasional shallow moisture
sloshing into ern CO both Tue and Wed mornings, before mixing
quickly eastward as dry sw flow reaches the surface later in the
day. Will keep mainly just some low pops in place over the
mountains for both Tue and Wed afternoons, though again precip
coverage/intensity will be rather sparse/weak. Deeper moisture
makes a better push into southern CO Thu/Fri as energy from the
western trough finally begins to push eastward and gives cold
front a stronger shove southward. Still some timing differences
among various models, but main message is a gradual increase in
precip chances both days as moisture and lift both ramp up. Max
temps Mon-Wed will stay rather warm, then drift downward slowly
late week as cooler air filters south.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE KCOS TAF SITE...ANTICIPATE THAT SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL
ALLOW GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
422 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicating
generally weak west to southwest flow aloft across the state with
upper level ridging building across the Rockies ahead of broad upper
trough digging across the West Coast at this time. Water vapor
imagery is also indicating mid and upper level moisture streaming
out ahead of this system across the Desert Southwest and into the
Great Basin. At the surface, a deepening LHX low and associated east
to southeast low level winds across the far southeast plains is
keeping dew pts in the upper 30s to upper 40s, and has helped to
develop stratus from eastern portions of El Paso county through
portions of Otero, Kiowa, Prowers and Baca counties at this time.
Today and Tonight...
No big changes to ongoing forecast, with slowly increasing southwest
flow aloft expected across the region as the West Coast upper trough
continues to dig into the Desert Southwest, pushing the upper ridge
across the far eastern plains and into western Kansas tonight.
Warming aloft, denoted by WAA clouds spreading into western CO at
this time, will continue to warm temperatures back to at and above
seasonal levels today, with highs in the 70s and 80s across the
lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain.
Models continue to indicate enough moisture in place to support
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area this
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected across the
central mountains into the Pikes Peak region. Surface low pressure
to persist across the plains today, with breezy east to southeast
winds helping to advect low level moisture across the far southeast
plains into northeastern CO through the afternoon...where latest SPC
outlook has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today. With the
upper ridge building across the southeast plains, convection looks
to be capped today, however, storms which can develop across the
Pikes Peak region could quickly strengthen as they move north and
east off the Palmer Dvd and into northeastern CO. Convection to
diminish and end after sun set with clearing skies overnight, save
the far se plains, where could see some stratus develop once again
overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Western U.S. upper low drifts slowly back northward on
Saturday, keeping deep southwest flow in place across all of
southern Colorado. Moisture across the region looks very limited,
with just some weak, high-based convection possible over the
central mountains. Over the plains, dryline will be lurking near
the KS border, but most model guidance keeps deeper
moisture/instability just east of the state line, and will go with
a dry forecast over the plains for now. Deep mixing Saturday will
lead to very warm and breezy conditions area-wide, and a few
locations on the plains will approach 90f by late afternoon. Upper
low tracks northeastward into Canada Sunday, with southwest flow
continuing across Colorado. Dryline appears to mix well east of
the KS border in the afternoon, and will keep pops out of the
plains once again as dry air mass spreads eastward from the
mountains. Mid levels do moisten slightly by afternoon over the
higher terrain, and may be just enough instability for some high
based -tsra, though with dry surface layer, precip will likely be
very light. All of the area will see another day of very warm and
windy conditions, though max temps may drift downward a couple
degf as heights fall slightly by Sat evening.
Weak cold front drops south through the plains Sunday evening,
though any upslope surge should be short-lived as new energy drops
into the western U.S. upper trough, with southwest flow reforming
a lee surface low over ern CO during the day Mon. Moisture remains
limited Mon, with again only a few high based mountain storms
possible. Pattern persists Tue/Wed as wrn trough continues to
deepen, keeping sw flow aloft in place with only limited moisture
across the area. Models hint at occasional shallow moisture
sloshing into ern CO both Tue and Wed mornings, before mixing
quickly eastward as dry sw flow reaches the surface later in the
day. Will keep mainly just some low pops in place over the
mountains for both Tue and Wed afternoons, though again precip
coverage/intensity will be rather sparse/weak. Deeper moisture
makes a better push into southern CO Thu/Fri as energy from the
western trough finally begins to push eastward and gives cold
front a stronger shove southward. Still some timing differences
among various models, but main message is a gradual increase in
precip chances both days as moisture and lift both ramp up. Max
temps Mon-Wed will stay rather warm, then drift downward slowly
late week as cooler air filters south.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
COS, PUB and ALS should remain VFR for the next 24 hours. There is
some patchy stratus across eastern El Paso county this morning,
though this should not make into COS terminal. There also remains
a low probability of a few afternoon and evening storms over the
eastern mts and Palmer Divide, but do not expect them to impact
the VC COS. Winds will be a bit stronger today with surface winds
10-20 KTS generally from the SE over the plains and S-SW over the
San Luis Valley. Convection to diminish after sun set with
clearing skies overnight.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1101 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Forecast models are consistent and add confidence for forecast
details. The upper low over Washington state will sink into
northern California on Friday. Northwest flow aloft this evening
backs to southwest on Friday with the strongest gradient over
Utah. Afternoon wind gusts of around 45 mph are expected so a Wind
Advisory has been issued for SE Utah and far NW Colorado. These
stronger wind gusts should diminish in the valleys early Friday
evening though exposed higher terrain should have gusty winds
through the night. There is enough residual moisture to set off
late- day, mainly- mountain convection. Associated virga or light
showers could produce locally stronger winds.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Saturday, the low works into eastern Oregon stretched across the
western Great Basin. Southwest gradient winds will increase a few
mph, but cloud cover may inhibit vertical mixing and valley wind
gusts somewhat.
Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring
increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern
mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a
storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new
week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft
MSL.
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1101 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Isolated showers over the higher terrain will continue here and
there through midmorning, but pose little threat to airport
operations. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will increase in
coverage and intensity over the higher terrain from late morning
into the evening in response to daytime warming. Meanwhile, winds
will become strong as a storm system moves southward into northern
California and northwest Nevada, especially over southeast Utah
and northwest Colorado. Wind gusts in excess of 45 MPH are likely
in the areas just mentioned, but will decrease after 8 PM MDT.
Outflow winds from thunderstorms could top 50 MPH.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ001.
UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...NL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1051 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken over the next
few hours as nocturnal processes become dominant. Decided to cut
down pops over the Rampart, Wet, and Sangre de Cristo Mtns as
shower activity continues to wane. Latest model guidance continues
to suggest shower activity moving into the Central Mtns from the
west during the early morning hours...thus decided to rise pops
slightly over the Central and northern San Juan Mtns. Otherwise,
the current forecast remains on track. Lukinbeal/Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Currently...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring
across the region at 2 pm. the best coverage of storms were over the
Wet and Sangre mtns. a few showers/-tsra were noted over the I-25
corridor and san luis valley.
upper low was located over the sc KS area and flow aloft was from
the N-NW. This flow was allowing for a few showers to move onto the
plains.
Temps across the region were seasonable...with readings in the 50s
to L70s across the Plains...and 50s and 60s in the valleys.
Rest of today into tonight...
Scattered showers will continue over the higher trrn with more isold
activity expected over the valleys and the plains adjacent to the
mtns into the early evening hours. Once the sun sets...showers will
come to an end. The only exception will be the Central mtns were
some showers may approach this region towards sunrise as a weak
disturbance moves across the central part of the State.
Temps tonight will be seasonable with lows in the 40s across the
plains and 30s in the valleys. /Hodanish
Tomorrow...
Drier sw flow aloft moves over the fcst region. Although we will see
some isold tsra over the mtns and possibly the plains...I expect we
will see less coverage than what we have seen today. Temperatures
will continue to warm...and expect another 10 degree warming...with
highs in the mid 80s across a good part of the Plains. Overall best
chance of precip tomorrow will likely be the c mtn area.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Friday night through Sunday...Long range models agree on placing an
upper low pressure system over the West Coast Fri night and Sat,
producing brisk SW flow aloft across the 4 Corners as well as very
warm temps for the forecast area. Save for isolated convection over
the mts, and mainly the central mts, each aftn and eve, conditions
will remain dry for much of the CWA. Look for max temps in the upper
60s to mid 70s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to upper 80s for
the plains. The upper low migrates to the north and slides across
the Northern Rockies on Sun, pushing a cold front down into eastern
CO Sun night.
Monday through Thursday...As the one upper feature passes to the
northeast, another upper trough of low pressure develops over
Northern CA and the Pacific NW. This will once again produce
southwest flow aloft across the 4 Corners. Multiple disturbances in
the upper flow will cross the state, serving as the trigger for
scattered convection over the mts, and isolated activity for the
plains, for Tue and Wed. Therefore, look for isolated mt convection
on Mon with aftn temps about 10 degrees cooler than on Sun.
Convective activity increases for all areas Tue and Wed, with max
temps in the 70s to around 80 F for the plains, and in the 60s for
the high valleys. The upper low to the west finally starts to make a
move towards CO on Thu, which will likely mean cooler temps and a
higher probability for some showers and storms. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1044 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
TAF sites should remain VFR for the next 24-30 hours. There is a
low probability of a few afternoon and evening storms over the
Palmer Divide...but they should not impact the VC KCOS. Winds
will be a bit stronger tomorrow...with surface winds generally
from the SE over the plains and S-SW over the San Luis Valley.
Rose
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LUKINBEAL/MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
853 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken over the next
few hours as noctoral processes become dominate. Decided to cut
down pops over the Rampart, Wet, and Sangre de Cristo Mtns as
shower activity continues to wane. Latest model guidance continues
to suggest shower activity moving into the Central Mtns from the
west during the early morning hours...thus decided to rise pops
slightly over the Central and northern San Juan Mtns. Otherwise,
the current forecast remains on track. Lukinbeal/Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Currently...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring
across the region at 2 pm. the best coverage of storms were over the
Wet and Sangre mtns. a few showers/-tsra were noted over the I-25
corridor and san luis valley.
upper low was located over the sc KS area and flow aloft was from
the N-NW. This flow was allowing for a few showers to move onto the
plains.
Temps across the region were seasonable...with readings in the 50s
to L70s across the Plains...and 50s and 60s in the valleys.
Rest of today into tonight...
Scattered showers will continue over the higher trrn with more isold
activity expected over the valleys and the plains adjacent to the
mtns into the early evening hours. Once the sun sets...showers will
come to an end. The only exception will be the Central mtns were
some showers may approach this region towards sunrise as a weak
disturbance moves across the central part of the State.
Temps tonight will be seasonable with lows in the 40s across the
plains and 30s in the valleys. /Hodanish
Tomorrow...
Drier sw flow aloft moves over the fcst region. Although we will see
some isold tsra over the mtns and possibly the plains...I expect we
will see less coverage than what we have seen today. Temperatures
will continue to warm...and expect another 10 degree warming...with
highs in the mid 80s across a good part of the Plains. Overall best
chance of precip tomorrow will likely be the c mtn area.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Friday night through Sunday...Long range models agree on placing an
upper low pressure system over the West Coast Fri night and Sat,
producing brisk SW flow aloft across the 4 Corners as well as very
warm temps for the forecast area. Save for isolated convection over
the mts, and mainly the central mts, each aftn and eve, conditions
will remain dry for much of the CWA. Look for max temps in the upper
60s to mid 70s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to upper 80s for
the plains. The upper low migrates to the north and slides across
the Northern Rockies on Sun, pushing a cold front down into eastern
CO Sun night.
Monday through Thursday...As the one upper feature passes to the
northeast, another upper trough of low pressure develops over
Northern CA and the Pacific NW. This will once again produce
southwest flow aloft across the 4 Corners. Multiple disturbances in
the upper flow will cross the state, serving as the trigger for
scattered convection over the mts, and isolated activity for the
plains, for Tue and Wed. Therefore, look for isolated mt convection
on Mon with aftn temps about 10 degrees cooler than on Sun.
Convective activity increases for all areas Tue and Wed, with max
temps in the 70s to around 80 F for the plains, and in the 60s for
the high valleys. The upper low to the west finally starts to make a
move towards CO on Thu, which will likely mean cooler temps and a
higher probability for some showers and storms. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
VFR conditions anticipated during the next 24h at all 3 taf
sites...kpub...kcos and kals. winds will be light and diurnally
driven.
isold weak -tsra will be possible this afternoon at evening at all 3
taf sites...but probability is low that they will occur. the best
chance of any precip will be over KCOS.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LUKINBEAL/MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
401 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Forecast models are consistent and add confidence for forecast
details. The upper low over Washington state will sink into
northern California on Friday. Northwest flow aloft this evening
backs to southwest on Friday with the strongest gradient over
Utah. Afternoon wind gusts of around 45 mph are expected so a Wind
Advisory has been issued for SE Utah and far NW Colorado. These
stronger wind gusts should diminish in the valleys early Friday
evening though exposed higher terrain should have gusty winds
through the night. There is enough residual moisture to set off
late- day, mainly- mountain convection. Associated virga or light
showers could produce locally stronger winds.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Saturday, the low works into eastern Oregon stretched across the
western Great Basin. Southwest gradient winds will increase a few
mph, but cloud cover may inhibit vertical mixing and valley wind
gusts somewhat.
Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring
increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern
mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a
storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new
week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft
MSL.
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Most of the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will end
by 03z. some turbulence is expected to develop overnight and
southwest winds aloft strengthen. Gusty southwest winds will begin
to mix into TAF sites around 18z Saturday. Afternoon gusts of 45
mph are possible mainly at KCNY KTEX with gusts to 30 to 40 mph
elsewhere. Isolated afternoon showers and virga threaten locally
very strong wind gusts.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ001.
UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JOE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1232 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016
A transitory ridge will move across the area today. This will
help remove a bit of the moisture that has been over the forecast
area and suppress s some of the convective development this
afternoon and evening. The next big pacific storm will move down
the west coast from the pacnw to northern ca tonight and friday.
The ridgeline will move east of the area friday and that will
allow increase southerly surface winds ahead of the large trough
along the west coast. Have increased wind speeds and gusts across
the board friday. The pacific storm will slowly move inland friday
but the forecast area should remain under a dry slot. The big
story will be increasing south to southwest winds friday
afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed May 18 2016
A large upper level low will sink south and then stall in the
vicinity of the interior Pac NW states by Saturday. We will be in
the tighter gradient region between this low and the ridge of high
pressure over the central U.S. Saturday and Sunday which will
bring a breezy to windy and warm pattern to our region. Cannot
rule out isolated diurnal convection over the higher terrain
Friday and Saturday...but should have a little better coverage on
Sunday as a minor upper level trough moves through. As the upper
level low weakens and moves north, individual shortwave troughs
caught in the broad long wave trough over the western U.s. will
begin to cross the region every 36 hours or so next week.
Precipitable water values will be about half what they are
now...so expect only isolated mainly diurnally driven convection
over the mountains each day. After Saturday, as the region comes
under the trough aloft, temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
isold shower and a few storms will fire this afternoon though
coverage is expected to be less than seen yesterday. convection
will form over mountains so main concerns aviation-wise will be
mtn tafs including kase...kege...and ktex where vcts looks good
for now. kmtj and kdro may see some activity but confidence not
high enough to include in taf attm. most precip will end by 03z
with next concern being gusty winds tomorrow starting after 17z or
so. gusts of 30 to even 40 mph are possible at times. the
strongest winds are expected over kcny with lesser winds
elsewhere.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1112 AM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Some low stratus and fog has developed over portions of El Paso
county this morning. The San Luis Valley also has some low clouds
this morning. The HRRR and nam are suggesting the stratus should
dissipate by 15-16z this morning.
An upr trof wl be to the east ovr KS and TX today, with a shortwave
ridge ovr CO through tonight. There wl be enough mstr ovr the area
today for isold to sct showers and tstms to develop ovr the mtns and
high valleys, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Could
even see a couple showers/storms move out ovr the I-25 corridor.
high temps today wl be warmer than yesterday and should generally be
just a few degrees below average.
by late tonight most if not all pcpn should end. however, toward
morning the nam is suggesting an area of pcpn could move into the
CONTDVD, but the gfs is dry. it looks like low stratus could
develop tonight ovr portions of the sern plains, mainly from KLHX
and eastward, although it also looks like portions of El Paso county
may also see the low clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Friday-Saturday...A warmer and drier weather pattern continues to be
in the offing as upper level ridging builds into the region on
Friday, with southwest flow aloft increasing into Saturday ahead of
EPAC energy digging across the West Coast and into the Great Basin.
Enough residual moisture will be in place to support isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms both days, mainly
over and near the higher terrain. Storms that do develop look to be
higher based, with lightning and gusty winds the main threats.
Latest models are indicating fairly deep mixing across the area on
Saturday supporting breezy south to southwest winds into the
afternoon and early evening and pushing dry line well into Kansas.
Warming aloft continues across the area with temperatures warming
back to at and above seasonal levels with highs in the 70s and 80s
across the lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher
terrain. Breezy winds...warm temps and low afternoon humidities to
lead to increased fire danger on Saturday, however, with green up
well underway, do not think fuels across the area will be critical.
Saturday night-Monday...Moderate to strong southwest flow aloft
progged across the region as the Great Basin system lifts out across
the northern Rockies on Monday. Pattern keeps the area warm and
breezy, with isolated to scattered storms possible over and near the
higher terrain. There could be a few stronger storms across the far
southeast plains Saturday night and Sunday, with the dry line
possibly retrograding back near the Kansas border. Should see
temperatures remaining AOA seasonal averages through the period.
Tuesday-Wednesday...Latest model guidance is indicating moderate
west to southwest flow aloft across the region, with occasional
embedded short waves translating across the Rockies. This pattern
would lead to generally warm and breezy conditions across the area,
with chances of showers and storms associated with the passing
waves, mainly over and near the higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1059 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016
VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24h at all 3 taf
sites...KPUB...KALS and KCOS. Surface winds will be light and
diurnally driven. Brief -TSRA will be possible at the 3 taf sites
this afternoon and early evening...with locally gusty winds
possible with the -TSRA.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
325 AM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sat May 21 2016
The center of a large low pressure system continues rotating in
place over southeast Oregon. Its cold front will stretch north to
south across Utah today and make little progress east. The strong
low level wind band and jet stream will also slowly move east over
western and central Utah. This will cause surface winds to nudge
up again today. Increasing cloud cover may inhibit some mixing but
given the predicted gradient it shouldn`t matter much. The wind
advisories for eastern Utah (with the exception of the Eastern
Uinta Basin) and portions of extreme western Colorado are well
justified. Have held off expanding them further east as the
tighter pressure gradient doesn`t seem to spread much east of the
colorado and utah border until this evening and overnight.
On Sunday the low center makes little progress east and instead
lifts to the northeast into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. The cold front
will move through the forecast area, but the strongest forcing
will remain across the north. The portion of the system moving
through the forecast area will remain moisture starved so only
isolated at best thunderstorm coverage is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave still timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sat May 21 2016
Turbulence from strong south to southwest winds will be widespread
the next 24 hours. All taf sites will experience windy conditions.
There is a chance that blowing dust may affect visibility over the
area, especially over southeast Utah and southwest Colorado. Low
level wind shear is also possible this morning and late tonight.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
for COZ003.
Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
COZ001-006-020.
UT...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
for UTZ023-025-028.
Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1140 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Windy and mild continue through these periods. This early
afternoon, southwest winds have been in the 30s to low 40s mph in
the western valleys, 40s to mid 50s in the western mountains.
These winds will be increasing over the next 36 hours as the upper
Low over northern California tracks slowly to the northeast. Gusty
winds are expected to continue and strengthen over high exposed
terrain tonight, even mixing into a few western valley locations.
Elsewhere valleys will have shallow inversions keeping overnight
low temperatures mild. MSLP gradient and 700-600MB winds increase
on Saturday. Therefore have issued another Wind Advisory for
eastern Utah including the mountains, and spreading a bit further
into far western Colorado. Another mild night expected Saturday
night as a cold front works across Utah.
Afternoon convection has been minimal and less than forecasted.
Overall this spring the models seem to be overproducing QPF.
Therefore have lowered POPs for the weekend.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. The cold front
works through the forecast area, strongest forcing across the
north. But the moisture will have eroded from PW values around 0.7
inch now to around 0.3 on Sunday. So showers will be minimal. An
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave still timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1140 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
There will be little chance for showers across eastern Utah and
western Colorado during the remainder of the night as drier air
originating from the southwest moves overhead. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will develop over the eastern Uinta mountains
during the afternoon as the cold front associated with the deep
low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest pushes into
northeast Utah. This activity will continue into the evening.
However, there remains little chance for showers at airports
across the region and therefore, VFR conditions will prevail with
CIGS remaining above ILS breakpoints. However, as the pressure
gradient increases ahead of the front winds aloft will strengthen
from the southwest. This will result in low level wind shear at
some airports across the area until midday when daytime heating
causes winds aloft to mix with the surface layer.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ003.
Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ001-006-020.
UT...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ023-025-028.
Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...NL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
847 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Windy and mild continue through these periods. This early
afternoon, southwest winds have been in the 30s to low 40s mph in
the western valleys, 40s to mid 50s in the western mountains.
These winds will be increasing over the next 36 hours as the upper
Low over northern California tracks slowly to the northeast. Gusty
winds are expected to continue and strengthen over high exposed
terrain tonight, even mixing into a few western valley locations.
Elsewhere valleys will have shallow inversions keeping overnight
low temperatures mild. MSLP gradient and 700-600MB winds increase
on Saturday. Therefore have issued another Wind Advisory for
eastern Utah including the mountains, and spreading a bit further
into far western Colorado. Another mild night expected Saturday
night as a cold front works across Utah.
Afternoon convection has been minimal and less than forecasted.
Overall this spring the models seem to be overproducing QPF.
Therefore have lowered POPs for the weekend.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. The cold front
works through the forecast area, strongest forcing across the
north. But the moisture will have eroded from PW values around 0.7
inch now to around 0.3 on Sunday. So showers will be minimal. An
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave still timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
VFR conditions dominate. Isolated mainly mountain thunderstorms
should be circumnavigable. moderate to strong turbulence is the
main threat as southwest winds will gust to 30-40 mph this
afternoon and again on Saturday. Tonight strong southwest winds
will continue over higher terrain mixing into western TAF sites at
times, including KCNY KTEX. Low level wind shear will be possible
at all TAF sites through 18z Saturday when the inversions are
expected to break.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ003.
Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ001-006-020.
UT...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ023-025-028.
Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JOE
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
728 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 728 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Only isolated showers were able to briefly push through the
cirrus shield over the forecast area this afternoon, and those
have all dissipated. 00Z soundings from Denver and Grand Junction
show a stable layer, more pronounced on the Grand Junction
sounding. The cap is expected to remain in place through the rest
of the night so no further storm threat.
The eastern plains will see another round of low clouds and
fog, and even some drizzle overnight as moisture continues to
increase in stronger southeast flow. The low clouds and fog may
wrap back as far as the northern sections of Denver by early
Saturday morning with the aid of a Denver cyclone, but main threat
would be from northern Larimer and Weld counties east and
southeast to around Akron, Limon, and points east. Overall
forecast on track, just removed evening thunder and added areas of
drizzle to the eastern plains. Also increased winds on the plains
Saturday afternoon with good mixing and strong pressure gradient
in place.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Current radar and satellite imagery showing increasing convection
over the foothills and northern portions of the CWA. The surface
low that was in place on the lee side of the mountains has
degraded bringing sfc flow more southerly over the eastern
portions of the CWA. A dry line is setting up along a line from
Weld county SE into Washington that will increase CAPE and
convection in that region for storms moving off the northern
foothills. Steering flow is SE so many storms may instead move into
WY vs east across our northern counties. Still maintain a chance
of thunderstorms in the mountains and foothills with a slight
chance on the plains. Further south mid level temperatures will
most likely be too warm for much convection so storms will most
likely produce some light rain and gusty winds.
For tonight the storms will wind down around 5 pm and storms will
end from west to east. Pressure falls ahead of an approaching
trough over CA will again turn winds on the plains more SE. This
will help to usher in increasing moisture west onto the plains.
Models are indicating a Denver cyclone setting up to the north of
the city that will help to pull moisture more west. At this time
will keep the city of Denver and DIA under patchy fog conditions
with heavier areas of fog further east and north. This low fog and
increased moisture will lift into a lowered stratus that will
delay initial warming...however with dry SW flow increasing
through the day conditions should still warm to lower 80s for much
of the plains. Convection is looking less probable with most areas
capped. Kept a slight chance of storms in the mountains with
decent lapse and CAPE values above 1000 j/kg at higher elevations
but have kept it mostly over the far eastern portions of the CWA
for late afternoon. Do not expect severe but light to moderate
rainshowers and gusty winds will be possible with the stronger
storms.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Drier air will move over the area Saturday night. There will just
be a slight chance for thunderstorms during the evening over the
northern mountains and far eastern plains.
Sunday will be warm ahead of a cold front that will push through
during the day. Highs are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower
80s across northeast Colorado. Moisture is somewhat limited
Sunday and will keep convection isolated. Best chance for storms
will be over the higher terrain and northeast corner of the
state. If enough moisture hangs on over the northeast corner
there could be a couple strong to severe thunderstorms.
It will be cooler Monday behind this system. There should be
enough moisture and instability for another round of isolated
showers and thunderstorms. Most of them will be found over the
higher terrain.
A weak southwest flow aloft will persist Tuesday through Friday
over Colorado. Mainly isolated afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms are expected. May be a better chance for storms
Thursday and Friday as an upper level trough moves into the
central Rockies. Temperatures will be at or slightly below normal
Tuesday through Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 728 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
VFR conditions will prevail, although there is still a brief
window of fog potential from 12Z-15Z Saturday. Denver cyclone
will support stratus and fog development over the eastern plains,
wrapping it back toward the Front Range late tonight and early
Saturday morning. Main threat is still from KFNL and KGXY east to
KAKO, KLIC, and points east. At KDEN and KBJC probability of fog
is only about 20% right now, but still something to watch closely
as any fog development would likely take the visibility down to
1/4SM. No threat of thunder for the Front Range airports and KDEN
through Saturday evening. Southerly winds near 15-20 knots with a
few gusts near 25 knots til 06z gradually weakening and becoming
variable by Saturday morning. Then expect them to increase again
and have bumped up KDEN and KAPA to near 20 knots with gusts 25-30
knots expected to develop by 20Z Saturday during peak heating and
mixing.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
608 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 607 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Quick update to incorporate latest obs and satellite data. Pared
back pops to just isolated over the higher terrain for a few hours
this eve, otherwise feel that the HRR is overdone. Rest of
forecast package looks good at this time, with some fog developing
and moving into portions of the e plains overnight. Moore
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Not many adjustments required from earlier forecast reasoning with
primary near/short term meteorological concerns for the forecast
district being isolated pops, areas of low clouds and fog developing
over eastern sections later tonight, temperatures and gusty winds at
times.
Forecast district currently graced by variable clouds, locally gusty
winds, isolated shower and thunderstorm activity, primarily to the
north of the CWFA and generally above seasonal late May afternoon
temperatures.
Recent real-time data, PV analysis, forecast model soundings and
computer simulations indicate that relatively dry southwesterly
upper flow will prevail over the forecast district during the next
24 hours, however enough atmospheric moisture interacting with the
daily orographic heating cycle and a passing weak upper disturbance
will be capable of generating isolated showers and
thunderstorms(some potentially strong at times), into this evening,
primarily over eastern portions of the CWFA. In addition, have
depicted areas of low clouds and fog developing later tonight over
primarily eastern portions of the forecast district.
Gusty winds are also anticipated at times during the next 24 hours,
however per recent direction of area land agencies, will refrain
from any fire weather highlights as fuels are not favorable.
Finally, above seasonal temperatures are expected to continue over
the majority of the forecast district during the next 24 hours.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
A generally dry and warm period is anticipated during this long term
forecast period as the region will be under modest southwesterly
flow aloft. I anticipate the dryline will remain primarily to the
east of the forecast area...so the probability of severe convection
is low. the only exception to this may be late in the period as the
guidance shows a stronger disturbance moving across the region
during the Thursday/Friday time frame.
for later this weekend (Sunday)...it will be quite warm...dry and
windy across the region. Meteorological conditions will be favorable
for extreme fire behavior...however after talking to the folks at
Pueblo Dispatch...fuels are not conducive to rapid spread.
Likewise...no fire weather hilites will be issued. Max temps both
days will be well into the 80s across the Plains...and a 90 or
two is not out of the question. Southwest wind gusts to 25 to 35
mph are likely.
a cold front will cross the area Sunday night...and a bit cooler
weather is expected for Monday. However...it will remain quite dry
in the low levels after fropa...and very little if any thunder is
expected over the region Monday afternoon. If thunder does
occur...it will likely be in the Pikes Peak region and central mtn
areas.
Dry southwesterly flow at lower levels will likely develop once
again Tuesday and last into Thursday. By late in the week...the
stronger disturbance discussed above will move across the region and
this may back the llvl winds enough to bring llvl moisture into the
region which may allow for thunderstorms over the plains late Thu
afternoon and possibly Fri afternoon. This disturbance late in the
week will also bring a better chance of tsra to the mtns.
/Hodanish
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Isolated later afternoon into evening showers and thunderstorms will
be possible over sections of the district...primarily near the KCOS
taf site into this evening. However, still anticipate that
southwesterly upper flow will allow VFR conditions to continue over
the KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites into Saturday. In addition, have
also depicted areas of low clouds/fog over some eastern locations
from later tonight into early Saturday morning, with low
clouds/areas of fog possibly encroaching the KCOS and KPUB taf sites
during this time-frame...WFO PUB will monitor closely.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...77
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
342 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Windy and mild continue through these periods. This early
afternoon, southwest winds have been in the 30s to low 40s mph in
the western valleys, 40s to mid 50s in the western mountains.
These winds will be increasing over the next 36 hours as the upper
Low over northern California tracks slowly to the northeast. Gusty
winds are expected to continue and strengthen over high exposed
terrain tonight, even mixing into a few western valley locations.
Elsewhere valleys will have shallow inversions keeping overnight
low temperatures mild. MSLP gradient and 700-600MB winds increase
on Saturday. Therefore have issued another Wind Advisory for
eastern Utah including the mountains, and spreading a bit further
into far western Colorado. Another mild night expected Saturday
night as a cold front works across Utah.
Afternoon convection has been minimal and less than forecasted.
Overall this spring the models seem to be overproducing QPF.
Therefore have lowered POPs for the weekend.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. The cold front
works through the forecast area, strongest forcing across the
north. But the moisture will have eroded from PW values around 0.7
inch now to around 0.3 on Sunday. So showers will be minimal. An
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave still timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
VFR conditions dominate. Isolated mainly mountain thunderstorms
should be circumnavigable. moderate to strong turbulence is the
main threat as southwest winds will gust to 30-40 mph this
afternoon and again on Saturday. Tonight strong southwest winds
will continue over higher terrain mixing into western TAF sites at
times, including KCNY KTEX. Low level wind shear will be possible
at all TAF sites through 18z Saturday when the inversions are
expected to break.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JOE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
337 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Not many adjustments required from earlier forecast reasoning with
primary near/short term meteorological concerns for the forecast
district being isolated pops, areas of low clouds and fog developing
over eastern sections later tonight, temperatures and gusty winds at
times.
Forecast district currently graced by variable clouds, locally gusty
winds, isolated shower and thunderstorm activity, primarily to the
north of the CWFA and generally above seasonal late May afternoon
temperatures.
Recent real-time data, PV analysis, forecast model soundings and
computer simulations indicate that relatively dry southwesterly
upper flow will prevail over the forecast district during the next
24 hours, however enough atmospheric moisture interacting with the
daily orographic heating cycle and a passing weak upper disturbance
will be capable of generating isolated showers and
thunderstorms(some potentially strong at times), into this evening,
primarily over eastern portions of the CWFA. In addition, have
depicted areas of low clouds and fog developing later tonight over
primarily eastern portions of the forecast district.
Gusty winds are also anticipated at times during the next 24 hours,
however per recent direction of area land agencies, will refrain
from any fire weather highlights as fuels are not favorable.
Finally, above seasonal temperatures are expected to continue over
the majority of the forecast district during the next 24 hours.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
A generally dry and warm period is anticipated during this long term
forecast period as the region will be under modest southwesterly
flow aloft. I anticipate the dryline will remain primarily to the
east of the forecast area...so the probability of severe convection
is low. the only exception to this may be late in the period as the
guidance shows a stronger disturbance moving across the region
during the Thursday/Friday time frame.
for later this weekend (Sunday)...it will be quite warm...dry and
windy across the region. Meteorological conditions will be favorable
for extreme fire behavior...however after talking to the folks at
Pueblo Dispatch...fuels are not conducive to rapid spread.
Likewise...no fire weather hilites will be issued. Max temps both
days will be well into the 80s across the Plains...and a 90 or
two is not out of the question. Southwest wind gusts to 25 to 35
mph are likely.
a cold front will cross the area Sunday night...and a bit cooler
weather is expected for Monday. However...it will remain quite dry
in the low levels after fropa...and very little if any thunder is
expected over the region Monday afternoon. If thunder does
occur...it will likely be in the Pikes Peak region and central mtn
areas.
Dry southwesterly flow at lower levels will likely develop once
again Tuesday and last into Thursday. By late in the week...the
stronger disturbance discussed above will move across the region and
this may back the llvl winds enough to bring llvl moisture into the
region which may allow for thunderstorms over the plains late Thu
afternoon and possibly Fri afternoon. This disturbance late in the
week will also bring a better chance of tsra to the mtns.
/Hodanish
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Isolated later afternoon into evening showers and thunderstorms will
be possible over sections of the district...primarily near the KCOS
taf site into this evening. However, still anticipate that
southwesterly upper flow will allow VFR conditions to continue over
the KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites into Saturday. In addition, have
also depicted areas of low clouds/fog over some eastern locations
from later tonight into early Saturday morning, with low
clouds/areas of fog possibly encroaching the KCOS and KPUB taf sites
during this time-frame...WFO PUB will monitor closely.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...77
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1130 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
The shortrange models appear on track in positioning the low
center along the Oregon coast this morning. Satellite images show
the circulation center over extreme sw Oregon and sliding
gradually east. The jet curved cyclonically from the San
Francisco area over central Nevada then turn more to the north
over western Montana. The tightest gradient was edging toward
western Utah. This wind band will move east today and cause winds
to increase over eastern UT and western CO this afternoon and
evening. The gradient should be tight enough to bring wind
advisory level wind speeds to the lower elevations of SE UT and
extreme NW CO. Gusts to 45 mph are probable. The only factor that
could hamper this will be the band of mid and high cloud the will
advect over the area.
The main wind band is projected over the forecast area Saturday so
believe windy conditions will continue. Cloud cover should thicken
as well so have held off and any wind highlights at this time as
the cloud cover may interfere with vertical mixing.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring
increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern
mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a
storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new
week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft
MSL.
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
AREA BUT TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS REACHING 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH 02Z OR SO.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW WITH WINDS POSSIBLY
GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ001.
UT...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1126 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 451 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Increased coverage of stratus and fog across Pueblo county through
the early morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicating
generally weak west to southwest flow aloft across the state with
upper level ridging building across the Rockies ahead of broad upper
trough digging across the West Coast at this time. Water vapor
imagery is also indicating mid and upper level moisture streaming
out ahead of this system across the Desert Southwest and into the
Great Basin. At the surface, a deepening LHX low and associated east
to southeast low level winds across the far southeast plains is
keeping dew pts in the upper 30s to upper 40s, and has helped to
develop stratus from eastern portions of El Paso county through
portions of Otero, Kiowa, Prowers and Baca counties at this time.
Today and Tonight...
No big changes to ongoing forecast, with slowly increasing southwest
flow aloft expected across the region as the West Coast upper trough
continues to dig into the Desert Southwest, pushing the upper ridge
across the far eastern plains and into western Kansas tonight.
Warming aloft, denoted by WAA clouds spreading into western CO at
this time, will continue to warm temperatures back to at and above
seasonal levels today, with highs in the 70s and 80s across the
lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain.
Models continue to indicate enough moisture in place to support
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area this
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected across the
central mountains into the Pikes Peak region. Surface low pressure
to persist across the plains today, with breezy east to southeast
winds helping to advect low level moisture across the far southeast
plains into northeastern CO through the afternoon...where latest SPC
outlook has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today. With the
upper ridge building across the southeast plains, convection looks
to be capped today, however, storms which can develop across the
Pikes Peak region could quickly strengthen as they move north and
east off the Palmer Dvd and into northeastern CO. Convection to
diminish and end after sun set with clearing skies overnight, save
the far se plains, where could see some stratus develop once again
overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Western U.S. upper low drifts slowly back northward on
Saturday, keeping deep southwest flow in place across all of
southern Colorado. Moisture across the region looks very limited,
with just some weak, high-based convection possible over the
central mountains. Over the plains, dryline will be lurking near
the KS border, but most model guidance keeps deeper
moisture/instability just east of the state line, and will go with
a dry forecast over the plains for now. Deep mixing Saturday will
lead to very warm and breezy conditions area-wide, and a few
locations on the plains will approach 90f by late afternoon. Upper
low tracks northeastward into Canada Sunday, with southwest flow
continuing across Colorado. Dryline appears to mix well east of
the KS border in the afternoon, and will keep pops out of the
plains once again as dry air mass spreads eastward from the
mountains. Mid levels do moisten slightly by afternoon over the
higher terrain, and may be just enough instability for some high
based -tsra, though with dry surface layer, precip will likely be
very light. All of the area will see another day of very warm and
windy conditions, though max temps may drift downward a couple
degf as heights fall slightly by Sat evening.
Weak cold front drops south through the plains Sunday evening,
though any upslope surge should be short-lived as new energy drops
into the western U.S. upper trough, with southwest flow reforming
a lee surface low over ern CO during the day Mon. Moisture remains
limited Mon, with again only a few high based mountain storms
possible. Pattern persists Tue/Wed as wrn trough continues to
deepen, keeping sw flow aloft in place with only limited moisture
across the area. Models hint at occasional shallow moisture
sloshing into ern CO both Tue and Wed mornings, before mixing
quickly eastward as dry sw flow reaches the surface later in the
day. Will keep mainly just some low pops in place over the
mountains for both Tue and Wed afternoons, though again precip
coverage/intensity will be rather sparse/weak. Deeper moisture
makes a better push into southern CO Thu/Fri as energy from the
western trough finally begins to push eastward and gives cold
front a stronger shove southward. Still some timing differences
among various models, but main message is a gradual increase in
precip chances both days as moisture and lift both ramp up. Max
temps Mon-Wed will stay rather warm, then drift downward slowly
late week as cooler air filters south.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE KCOS TAF SITE...ANTICIPATE THAT SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL
ALLOW GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
422 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicating
generally weak west to southwest flow aloft across the state with
upper level ridging building across the Rockies ahead of broad upper
trough digging across the West Coast at this time. Water vapor
imagery is also indicating mid and upper level moisture streaming
out ahead of this system across the Desert Southwest and into the
Great Basin. At the surface, a deepening LHX low and associated east
to southeast low level winds across the far southeast plains is
keeping dew pts in the upper 30s to upper 40s, and has helped to
develop stratus from eastern portions of El Paso county through
portions of Otero, Kiowa, Prowers and Baca counties at this time.
Today and Tonight...
No big changes to ongoing forecast, with slowly increasing southwest
flow aloft expected across the region as the West Coast upper trough
continues to dig into the Desert Southwest, pushing the upper ridge
across the far eastern plains and into western Kansas tonight.
Warming aloft, denoted by WAA clouds spreading into western CO at
this time, will continue to warm temperatures back to at and above
seasonal levels today, with highs in the 70s and 80s across the
lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain.
Models continue to indicate enough moisture in place to support
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area this
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected across the
central mountains into the Pikes Peak region. Surface low pressure
to persist across the plains today, with breezy east to southeast
winds helping to advect low level moisture across the far southeast
plains into northeastern CO through the afternoon...where latest SPC
outlook has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today. With the
upper ridge building across the southeast plains, convection looks
to be capped today, however, storms which can develop across the
Pikes Peak region could quickly strengthen as they move north and
east off the Palmer Dvd and into northeastern CO. Convection to
diminish and end after sun set with clearing skies overnight, save
the far se plains, where could see some stratus develop once again
overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Western U.S. upper low drifts slowly back northward on
Saturday, keeping deep southwest flow in place across all of
southern Colorado. Moisture across the region looks very limited,
with just some weak, high-based convection possible over the
central mountains. Over the plains, dryline will be lurking near
the KS border, but most model guidance keeps deeper
moisture/instability just east of the state line, and will go with
a dry forecast over the plains for now. Deep mixing Saturday will
lead to very warm and breezy conditions area-wide, and a few
locations on the plains will approach 90f by late afternoon. Upper
low tracks northeastward into Canada Sunday, with southwest flow
continuing across Colorado. Dryline appears to mix well east of
the KS border in the afternoon, and will keep pops out of the
plains once again as dry air mass spreads eastward from the
mountains. Mid levels do moisten slightly by afternoon over the
higher terrain, and may be just enough instability for some high
based -tsra, though with dry surface layer, precip will likely be
very light. All of the area will see another day of very warm and
windy conditions, though max temps may drift downward a couple
degf as heights fall slightly by Sat evening.
Weak cold front drops south through the plains Sunday evening,
though any upslope surge should be short-lived as new energy drops
into the western U.S. upper trough, with southwest flow reforming
a lee surface low over ern CO during the day Mon. Moisture remains
limited Mon, with again only a few high based mountain storms
possible. Pattern persists Tue/Wed as wrn trough continues to
deepen, keeping sw flow aloft in place with only limited moisture
across the area. Models hint at occasional shallow moisture
sloshing into ern CO both Tue and Wed mornings, before mixing
quickly eastward as dry sw flow reaches the surface later in the
day. Will keep mainly just some low pops in place over the
mountains for both Tue and Wed afternoons, though again precip
coverage/intensity will be rather sparse/weak. Deeper moisture
makes a better push into southern CO Thu/Fri as energy from the
western trough finally begins to push eastward and gives cold
front a stronger shove southward. Still some timing differences
among various models, but main message is a gradual increase in
precip chances both days as moisture and lift both ramp up. Max
temps Mon-Wed will stay rather warm, then drift downward slowly
late week as cooler air filters south.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
COS, PUB and ALS should remain VFR for the next 24 hours. There is
some patchy stratus across eastern El Paso county this morning,
though this should not make into COS terminal. There also remains
a low probability of a few afternoon and evening storms over the
eastern mts and Palmer Divide, but do not expect them to impact
the VC COS. Winds will be a bit stronger today with surface winds
10-20 KTS generally from the SE over the plains and S-SW over the
San Luis Valley. Convection to diminish after sun set with
clearing skies overnight.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1101 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Forecast models are consistent and add confidence for forecast
details. The upper low over Washington state will sink into
northern California on Friday. Northwest flow aloft this evening
backs to southwest on Friday with the strongest gradient over
Utah. Afternoon wind gusts of around 45 mph are expected so a Wind
Advisory has been issued for SE Utah and far NW Colorado. These
stronger wind gusts should diminish in the valleys early Friday
evening though exposed higher terrain should have gusty winds
through the night. There is enough residual moisture to set off
late- day, mainly- mountain convection. Associated virga or light
showers could produce locally stronger winds.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Saturday, the low works into eastern Oregon stretched across the
western Great Basin. Southwest gradient winds will increase a few
mph, but cloud cover may inhibit vertical mixing and valley wind
gusts somewhat.
Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring
increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern
mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a
storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new
week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft
MSL.
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1101 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Isolated showers over the higher terrain will continue here and
there through midmorning, but pose little threat to airport
operations. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will increase in
coverage and intensity over the higher terrain from late morning
into the evening in response to daytime warming. Meanwhile, winds
will become strong as a storm system moves southward into northern
California and northwest Nevada, especially over southeast Utah
and northwest Colorado. Wind gusts in excess of 45 MPH are likely
in the areas just mentioned, but will decrease after 8 PM MDT.
Outflow winds from thunderstorms could top 50 MPH.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ001.
UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...NL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1051 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken over the next
few hours as nocturnal processes become dominant. Decided to cut
down pops over the Rampart, Wet, and Sangre de Cristo Mtns as
shower activity continues to wane. Latest model guidance continues
to suggest shower activity moving into the Central Mtns from the
west during the early morning hours...thus decided to rise pops
slightly over the Central and northern San Juan Mtns. Otherwise,
the current forecast remains on track. Lukinbeal/Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Currently...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring
across the region at 2 pm. the best coverage of storms were over the
Wet and Sangre mtns. a few showers/-tsra were noted over the I-25
corridor and san luis valley.
upper low was located over the sc KS area and flow aloft was from
the N-NW. This flow was allowing for a few showers to move onto the
plains.
Temps across the region were seasonable...with readings in the 50s
to L70s across the Plains...and 50s and 60s in the valleys.
Rest of today into tonight...
Scattered showers will continue over the higher trrn with more isold
activity expected over the valleys and the plains adjacent to the
mtns into the early evening hours. Once the sun sets...showers will
come to an end. The only exception will be the Central mtns were
some showers may approach this region towards sunrise as a weak
disturbance moves across the central part of the State.
Temps tonight will be seasonable with lows in the 40s across the
plains and 30s in the valleys. /Hodanish
Tomorrow...
Drier sw flow aloft moves over the fcst region. Although we will see
some isold tsra over the mtns and possibly the plains...I expect we
will see less coverage than what we have seen today. Temperatures
will continue to warm...and expect another 10 degree warming...with
highs in the mid 80s across a good part of the Plains. Overall best
chance of precip tomorrow will likely be the c mtn area.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Friday night through Sunday...Long range models agree on placing an
upper low pressure system over the West Coast Fri night and Sat,
producing brisk SW flow aloft across the 4 Corners as well as very
warm temps for the forecast area. Save for isolated convection over
the mts, and mainly the central mts, each aftn and eve, conditions
will remain dry for much of the CWA. Look for max temps in the upper
60s to mid 70s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to upper 80s for
the plains. The upper low migrates to the north and slides across
the Northern Rockies on Sun, pushing a cold front down into eastern
CO Sun night.
Monday through Thursday...As the one upper feature passes to the
northeast, another upper trough of low pressure develops over
Northern CA and the Pacific NW. This will once again produce
southwest flow aloft across the 4 Corners. Multiple disturbances in
the upper flow will cross the state, serving as the trigger for
scattered convection over the mts, and isolated activity for the
plains, for Tue and Wed. Therefore, look for isolated mt convection
on Mon with aftn temps about 10 degrees cooler than on Sun.
Convective activity increases for all areas Tue and Wed, with max
temps in the 70s to around 80 F for the plains, and in the 60s for
the high valleys. The upper low to the west finally starts to make a
move towards CO on Thu, which will likely mean cooler temps and a
higher probability for some showers and storms. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1044 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
TAF sites should remain VFR for the next 24-30 hours. There is a
low probability of a few afternoon and evening storms over the
Palmer Divide...but they should not impact the VC KCOS. Winds
will be a bit stronger tomorrow...with surface winds generally
from the SE over the plains and S-SW over the San Luis Valley.
Rose
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LUKINBEAL/MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
853 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken over the next
few hours as noctoral processes become dominate. Decided to cut
down pops over the Rampart, Wet, and Sangre de Cristo Mtns as
shower activity continues to wane. Latest model guidance continues
to suggest shower activity moving into the Central Mtns from the
west during the early morning hours...thus decided to rise pops
slightly over the Central and northern San Juan Mtns. Otherwise,
the current forecast remains on track. Lukinbeal/Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Currently...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring
across the region at 2 pm. the best coverage of storms were over the
Wet and Sangre mtns. a few showers/-tsra were noted over the I-25
corridor and san luis valley.
upper low was located over the sc KS area and flow aloft was from
the N-NW. This flow was allowing for a few showers to move onto the
plains.
Temps across the region were seasonable...with readings in the 50s
to L70s across the Plains...and 50s and 60s in the valleys.
Rest of today into tonight...
Scattered showers will continue over the higher trrn with more isold
activity expected over the valleys and the plains adjacent to the
mtns into the early evening hours. Once the sun sets...showers will
come to an end. The only exception will be the Central mtns were
some showers may approach this region towards sunrise as a weak
disturbance moves across the central part of the State.
Temps tonight will be seasonable with lows in the 40s across the
plains and 30s in the valleys. /Hodanish
Tomorrow...
Drier sw flow aloft moves over the fcst region. Although we will see
some isold tsra over the mtns and possibly the plains...I expect we
will see less coverage than what we have seen today. Temperatures
will continue to warm...and expect another 10 degree warming...with
highs in the mid 80s across a good part of the Plains. Overall best
chance of precip tomorrow will likely be the c mtn area.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Friday night through Sunday...Long range models agree on placing an
upper low pressure system over the West Coast Fri night and Sat,
producing brisk SW flow aloft across the 4 Corners as well as very
warm temps for the forecast area. Save for isolated convection over
the mts, and mainly the central mts, each aftn and eve, conditions
will remain dry for much of the CWA. Look for max temps in the upper
60s to mid 70s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to upper 80s for
the plains. The upper low migrates to the north and slides across
the Northern Rockies on Sun, pushing a cold front down into eastern
CO Sun night.
Monday through Thursday...As the one upper feature passes to the
northeast, another upper trough of low pressure develops over
Northern CA and the Pacific NW. This will once again produce
southwest flow aloft across the 4 Corners. Multiple disturbances in
the upper flow will cross the state, serving as the trigger for
scattered convection over the mts, and isolated activity for the
plains, for Tue and Wed. Therefore, look for isolated mt convection
on Mon with aftn temps about 10 degrees cooler than on Sun.
Convective activity increases for all areas Tue and Wed, with max
temps in the 70s to around 80 F for the plains, and in the 60s for
the high valleys. The upper low to the west finally starts to make a
move towards CO on Thu, which will likely mean cooler temps and a
higher probability for some showers and storms. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
VFR conditions anticipated during the next 24h at all 3 taf
sites...kpub...kcos and kals. winds will be light and diurnally
driven.
isold weak -tsra will be possible this afternoon at evening at all 3
taf sites...but probability is low that they will occur. the best
chance of any precip will be over KCOS.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LUKINBEAL/MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
401 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Forecast models are consistent and add confidence for forecast
details. The upper low over Washington state will sink into
northern California on Friday. Northwest flow aloft this evening
backs to southwest on Friday with the strongest gradient over
Utah. Afternoon wind gusts of around 45 mph are expected so a Wind
Advisory has been issued for SE Utah and far NW Colorado. These
stronger wind gusts should diminish in the valleys early Friday
evening though exposed higher terrain should have gusty winds
through the night. There is enough residual moisture to set off
late- day, mainly- mountain convection. Associated virga or light
showers could produce locally stronger winds.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Saturday, the low works into eastern Oregon stretched across the
western Great Basin. Southwest gradient winds will increase a few
mph, but cloud cover may inhibit vertical mixing and valley wind
gusts somewhat.
Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring
increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern
mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a
storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new
week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft
MSL.
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Most of the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will end
by 03z. some turbulence is expected to develop overnight and
southwest winds aloft strengthen. Gusty southwest winds will begin
to mix into TAF sites around 18z Saturday. Afternoon gusts of 45
mph are possible mainly at KCNY KTEX with gusts to 30 to 40 mph
elsewhere. Isolated afternoon showers and virga threaten locally
very strong wind gusts.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ001.
UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JOE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1232 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016
A transitory ridge will move across the area today. This will
help remove a bit of the moisture that has been over the forecast
area and suppress s some of the convective development this
afternoon and evening. The next big pacific storm will move down
the west coast from the pacnw to northern ca tonight and friday.
The ridgeline will move east of the area friday and that will
allow increase southerly surface winds ahead of the large trough
along the west coast. Have increased wind speeds and gusts across
the board friday. The pacific storm will slowly move inland friday
but the forecast area should remain under a dry slot. The big
story will be increasing south to southwest winds friday
afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed May 18 2016
A large upper level low will sink south and then stall in the
vicinity of the interior Pac NW states by Saturday. We will be in
the tighter gradient region between this low and the ridge of high
pressure over the central U.S. Saturday and Sunday which will
bring a breezy to windy and warm pattern to our region. Cannot
rule out isolated diurnal convection over the higher terrain
Friday and Saturday...but should have a little better coverage on
Sunday as a minor upper level trough moves through. As the upper
level low weakens and moves north, individual shortwave troughs
caught in the broad long wave trough over the western U.s. will
begin to cross the region every 36 hours or so next week.
Precipitable water values will be about half what they are
now...so expect only isolated mainly diurnally driven convection
over the mountains each day. After Saturday, as the region comes
under the trough aloft, temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
isold shower and a few storms will fire this afternoon though
coverage is expected to be less than seen yesterday. convection
will form over mountains so main concerns aviation-wise will be
mtn tafs including kase...kege...and ktex where vcts looks good
for now. kmtj and kdro may see some activity but confidence not
high enough to include in taf attm. most precip will end by 03z
with next concern being gusty winds tomorrow starting after 17z or
so. gusts of 30 to even 40 mph are possible at times. the
strongest winds are expected over kcny with lesser winds
elsewhere.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1112 AM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Some low stratus and fog has developed over portions of El Paso
county this morning. The San Luis Valley also has some low clouds
this morning. The HRRR and nam are suggesting the stratus should
dissipate by 15-16z this morning.
An upr trof wl be to the east ovr KS and TX today, with a shortwave
ridge ovr CO through tonight. There wl be enough mstr ovr the area
today for isold to sct showers and tstms to develop ovr the mtns and
high valleys, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Could
even see a couple showers/storms move out ovr the I-25 corridor.
high temps today wl be warmer than yesterday and should generally be
just a few degrees below average.
by late tonight most if not all pcpn should end. however, toward
morning the nam is suggesting an area of pcpn could move into the
CONTDVD, but the gfs is dry. it looks like low stratus could
develop tonight ovr portions of the sern plains, mainly from KLHX
and eastward, although it also looks like portions of El Paso county
may also see the low clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Friday-Saturday...A warmer and drier weather pattern continues to be
in the offing as upper level ridging builds into the region on
Friday, with southwest flow aloft increasing into Saturday ahead of
EPAC energy digging across the West Coast and into the Great Basin.
Enough residual moisture will be in place to support isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms both days, mainly
over and near the higher terrain. Storms that do develop look to be
higher based, with lightning and gusty winds the main threats.
Latest models are indicating fairly deep mixing across the area on
Saturday supporting breezy south to southwest winds into the
afternoon and early evening and pushing dry line well into Kansas.
Warming aloft continues across the area with temperatures warming
back to at and above seasonal levels with highs in the 70s and 80s
across the lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher
terrain. Breezy winds...warm temps and low afternoon humidities to
lead to increased fire danger on Saturday, however, with green up
well underway, do not think fuels across the area will be critical.
Saturday night-Monday...Moderate to strong southwest flow aloft
progged across the region as the Great Basin system lifts out across
the northern Rockies on Monday. Pattern keeps the area warm and
breezy, with isolated to scattered storms possible over and near the
higher terrain. There could be a few stronger storms across the far
southeast plains Saturday night and Sunday, with the dry line
possibly retrograding back near the Kansas border. Should see
temperatures remaining AOA seasonal averages through the period.
Tuesday-Wednesday...Latest model guidance is indicating moderate
west to southwest flow aloft across the region, with occasional
embedded short waves translating across the Rockies. This pattern
would lead to generally warm and breezy conditions across the area,
with chances of showers and storms associated with the passing
waves, mainly over and near the higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1059 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016
VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24h at all 3 taf
sites...KPUB...KALS and KCOS. Surface winds will be light and
diurnally driven. Brief -TSRA will be possible at the 3 taf sites
this afternoon and early evening...with locally gusty winds
possible with the -TSRA.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
333 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the Virginia coast will lift northeast of our
region through the day Sunday. However, a second offshore low is
expected to develop by Monday, before lifting away from the region
on Tuesday. A ridge will build over our region mid week. By Friday,
the ridge is expected to shift east as another low begins to slide
over the Great Plains.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface low pressure will continue to move northeastward and
out to sea tonight. However, a upper low level pressure system to
our northwest will continue to be a focal mechanism for some
scattered light showers across the region tonight with a decrease
overnight in coverage. The more concentrated showers along the shore
will move offshore early this evening. With cloudy skies,
temperatures will be slow to fall tonight falling into the upper
40`s and low 50`s. Fairly good model agreement with the forecast for
tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
The upper level low pressure system that will be to our northwest
will drop southward on Sunday. The 12z GFS/CMC/UKMET are a bit
further west than the 12Z ECMWF with this feature. With this
forecast package, we opted to go with a slightly more west track of
the low. This could potentially keep the highest coverage of showers
across Eastern Pennsylvania throughout the day. The areal coverage of
showers looks to be of a diurnal nature as low level lapse rates
steepen (instability mechanism) to increase the coverage by the
afternoon. Rainfall amounts are going to be light but a continued
low freezing level around 10,000 feet may result in a few showers
containing pea size hail in the afternoon hours. Coverage of
hail looks to low to place in forecast attm.
The track of the low will also effect the high temperatures. A
further east and cloudier ECMWF keeps highs down in the low and mid
60`s for most. On the other hand, A further west low track would
allow for breaks of sunshine and a chance at 70 degrees for Delaware
and New Jersey.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Monday through Tuesday...As the upper level short wave trough digs
and intensifies over the Mid Atlantic, a surface low will
subsequently develop off the coast of VA/NC. As a result, expect the
work week to begin with much of the same weather pattern we`re
seeing this weekend. Northeasterly flow will temper max temperatures
a bit, staying slightly below normal. However, thanks to air mass
modification, we should see a modest warming trend into Tuesday and
highs may be near normals. The moisture advection, thanks to
persistent onshore flow, and synoptic scale lift thanks to the upper
level low will result in continued rain chances. How quickly we dry
out will be dependent on how quickly the low lifts out of the
region. On this point, there are some slight differences between the
models with the GFS being a bit slower to clear everything out.
Would expect the bulk of the precipitation to be done by mid day
Tuesday as the flow turns more northwesterly, but a few showers
could linger into Tuesday evening.
Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level ridge shifts east, with the
ridge axis over our region by Thursday morning, bringing a lull in
rain chances and a very noticeable warming trend, with 80s expected
across much of the region both days.
Friday and Saturday...ridge shifts further east offshore through
this time, leaving our region on the periphery of the ridge. As
such, could see primarily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms as shortwave troughs embedded in the upper level SW
flow slide over the region.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight: Mainly VFR through early evening, some MVFR possible from
KPHL and southeast with the steadiest showers through early
evening. Ceilings will gradually lower by late evening likely
becoming IFR for the overnight hours. Some MVFR VSBY restrictions
will also occur throughout the night as well. Winds will be
easterly- northeasterly around 10 knots.
Sunday: Ceilings will start off IFR/MVFR in the pre-dawn hours and
gradually lift to VFR by the afternoon. Chance for some brief
scattered showers to impact TAF site, to low of a chance for TAF
inclusion attm. Northerly winds around 10 knots.
Outlook...
Monday and Tuesday...Occasional MVFR conditions possible with
showers and fog especially Monday night.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR conditions likely. Small chance of MVFR
conditions with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA starting at 4 pm this afternoon. Easterly winds have increased
but are still only around 20 knots on the bay attm. A window still
looks present for some easterly wind gusts near 25 knots by
evening both on the ocean and in Delaware Bay. Seas will be slow to
rise and should get above five feet tonight on the ocean.
Sunday: Winds will be more northerly and lighter. However wave
heights will still run from five to eight feet. SCA in effect.
RIP CURRENTS...Moderate risk for rip currents today as well with
the onshore flow and increasing easterly winds. A cool, raw day to
be out at the beach. Rip current forecast will be updated this
evening for Sunday.
Outlook...
Sunday night into Monday...Seas are expected through this
period and could be at or above 5 feet as early as Monday morning
(especially on the southern coastal waters).
Monday night...SCA conditions are likely on the coastal waters,
primarily for seas above 5 feet, though gusts near or above 20 kt
are possible.
Tuesday...seas should slowly subside, though SCA conditions may
linger through much of the day.
Tuesday night through Thursday...winds and seas should stay below
SCA criteria.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With the full moon today (Saturday), and on shore flow developing
later today and persisting through at least Sunday morning, tide
levels should be higher than normal on the Atlantic oceanfront and
the Delaware Bay. However, we expect water levels to fall short of
minor flooding thresholds at this point. The highest water levels
are expected with the high tide cycles on Sunday and Monday evening.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-
431.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Gaines
Short Term...Gaines
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Gaines/Johnson
Marine...Gaines/Johnson
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Johnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
920 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will deepen off the Virginia coast today and move
offshore tonight and Sunday. An upper air disturbance will remain
across the area from Sunday through Tuesday. High pressure will
ridge across the area Wednesday and remain for part of Thursday.
Another disturbance will arrive for the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An upper-level trough from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley will
gradually shift eastward through the day. As this occurs, low-level
warm air advection will assist in strengthening isentropic lift. An
area of pressure falls is forecast to take place off the coast of
Virginia, which will allow surface low pressure to develop through
the day. The combination of the surface low development, isentropic
lift and large scale ascent incoming from the west will result in an
area of rain moving across much of the area today.
The forecast challenge is the timing and pin-pointing the area where
the heavier rain sets up. An initial area of warm advection rain
across western Pennsylvania is forecast by much of the guidance to
weaken some as it moves east-northeast this morning. As this occurs,
surface low development to our south allows more focused lift to
shift southeastward. The NAM looks to compact regarding its rain
shield despite its surface low closer to the coast. If this occurs,
then even less rain would fall across the western zones. The latest
thinking is that all areas get into the rain by the end of the day,
however did slow down the pop increase for awhile with a
northeastern extent. The heaviest rainfall is mainly from near the I-
95 corridor on south and eastward given the coastal surface low
development. Given increasing moisture and lift, the rain may become
moderate at times mainly across the southern and eastern areas.
As the surface low develops and starts to track northeastward, the
pressure gradient tightens to its north. This results in breezy
conditions developing closer to the coast. At this time, any
instability looks rather meager given the onshore flow therefore
thunder was not added.
As for the high temperatures, we used mostly a continuity/MOS blend.
With the strengthening onshore flow, clouds and incoming rain, we
are expecting a cool day. The northern areas may get warmer prior to
the rain arriving. With the rainy areas taking on a more triangle
look leaving the Philly Metro potentially drier for longer today,
high temperatures may edge out a few degrees warmer along with
northern NJ.
With the 9:30 am update, the rain shield coming into western
parts of the region has encountered some drier air at the surface.
Radar returns are showing moderate to heavy rain falling in Berks
county PA southward into the Delmarva. However, only very light is
currently reaching the ground. Pops were trimmed back after
reviewing recent modeling trends in the HRRR and RAP which show
this area of rain decaying late this morning and the area of
rainfall with coastal low forming further eastward.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
The upper-level trough is forecast to sharpen across the east
tonight as an omega blocking pattern develops. This will drive
surface low pressure northeastward and away from our area. As this
occurs, the pressure gradient relaxes and therefore the winds that
start out a bit gusty along the coast will diminish at least some.
As the forcing shifts offshore with the surface low, any steadier
rain is expected to also shift offshore early with some showers
lingering. The showers will mostly be driven by the amplifying upper-
level trough. These showers may be more organized just to our west
within the trough axis itself. We therefore lowered pops some
through the night but allowed for at least scattered showers through
the overnight. With the idea of abundance of clouds around through
the night, temperatures should not drop off considerably but it will
be cool.
As for the low temperatures, we used mostly a MOS blend.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper air pattern will change considerably this week and by
week`s end it will feel more like summer. The pattern begins with
a closed low across the Middle Atlantic and northeast U.S. This
low will fill and exit off into the Atlantic Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The upper low will bring mostly unsettled conditions
with scattered showers much of the time and a chc for an afternoon
tstm across southern NJ and the Delmarva Monday. Temperatures
from Sunday thru Tuesday will be mostly below normal...but cloud
be at normal levels on Tuesday...depending on how much influence
the upper low still has at this time.
On Wednesday...Upper heights will rise and sfc high pressure will
settle across the area. Under fair skies...temperatures will
climb above normal...something which has not happened much during
May. Highs in the low 80s are expected at this time.
The warm weather will continue for the rest of the extended
period...but rain chcs will also increase for Thursday and into
Friday. By this time, several short waves from the Midwest will
have traveled across the Ohio Valley and across the Middle
Atlantic. Pops will mostly be in the chc range for now, since the
details will not be able to be resolved until the week progresses
a little more. Our pops are a good fit with our neighboring
offices. Thunder will be possible during the period with the added
instability with abundant daytime heating.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
Today...VFR ceilings lowering to MVFR this afternoon, then IFR
toward late afternoon. KABE and KRDG may remain at VFR ceilings all
day. Rain overspreads the area from southwest to northeast from
about 14-18z. The heaviest rain should be near and south/east of
KPHL. Light southeast winds, becoming east then northeast and
increasing to 10-15 knots this afternoon with some gusts to 20
knots. The strongest winds are expected to be closer to the coast.
Tonight...MVFR to IFR conditions overall, with perhaps VFR ceilings
lingering at KABE. The greatest chance for IFR conditions should be
from KILG to KPHL/KPNE to KTTN on south and east. LIFR ceilings
cannot be ruled out at KMIV and KACY. Any remaining steady rain
tapers early to some showers with some visibility restrictions at
times. Northeast winds 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots
early (less at KABE and KRDG), diminishing through the overnight.
outlook...
Sunday thru Tuesday...VFR most of the time. Sct Showers thru the
period may temporarily lower CIGS or VSBYS to MVFR/IFR.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR expected. Fog possible Tue
night.
&&
.MARINE...
Low pressure will develop off the Virginia coast during the course
of today, then move out to sea tonight. The pressure gradient will
tighten today as a result with an onshore flow therefore increasing.
It appears that the NAM is a bit aggressive with the surface low
since it is more consolidated and stronger. We leaned toward a
weaker wind field and therefore gales are not anticipated at this
time. The strengthening wind field spreading north looks to take
longer today, therefore we delayed the start time of the Small Craft
Advisory from south to north. Given the surface low track and
pressure gradient, we are more confident on the southern waters. The
increasing winds will build the seas with these becoming more robust
later today and tonight from south to north. The winds should drop
below advisory criteria this evening therefore we kept the 02z
ending time.
Moderate risk for rip currents today as well with the onshore
flow and increasing easterly winds. A cool, raw day to be out at
the beach.
outlook...
Sunday and Sunday night...SCA seas expected to continue on the
Ocean. Sub-SCA conditions across Delaware Bay.
Monday and Monday night...SCA conditions possible on the Ocean with
the lingering effects of the coastal storm. Seas 3-5 ft.
Tue thru Wed...Mostly Sub SCA conditions expected.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
Monday for ANZ450-451.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-
431.
&&
$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Gaines/Gorse
Short Term...Gorse
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Gorse/O`Hara
Marine...Gorse/O`Hara
Tides/Coastal Flooding...