Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/20/16

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
422 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicating
generally weak west to southwest flow aloft across the state with
upper level ridging building across the Rockies ahead of broad upper
trough digging across the West Coast at this time. Water vapor
imagery is also indicating mid and upper level moisture streaming
out ahead of this system across the Desert Southwest and into the
Great Basin.  At the surface, a deepening LHX low and associated east
to southeast low level winds across the far southeast plains is
keeping dew pts in the upper 30s to upper 40s, and has helped to
develop stratus from eastern portions of El Paso county through
portions of Otero, Kiowa, Prowers and Baca counties at this time.

Today and Tonight...

No big changes to ongoing forecast, with slowly increasing southwest
flow aloft expected across the region as the West Coast upper trough
continues to dig into the Desert Southwest, pushing the upper ridge
across the far eastern plains and into western Kansas tonight.
Warming aloft, denoted by WAA clouds spreading into western CO at
this time, will continue to warm temperatures back to at and above
seasonal levels today, with highs in the 70s and 80s across the
lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain.
Models continue to indicate enough moisture in place to support
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area this
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected across the
central mountains into the Pikes Peak region. Surface low pressure
to persist across the plains today, with breezy east to southeast
winds helping to advect low level moisture across the far southeast
plains into northeastern CO through the afternoon...where latest SPC
outlook has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today. With the
upper ridge building across the southeast plains, convection looks
to be capped today, however, storms which can develop across the
Pikes Peak region could quickly strengthen as they move north and
east off the Palmer Dvd and into northeastern CO.  Convection to
diminish and end after sun set with clearing skies overnight, save
the far se plains, where could see some stratus develop once again
overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016

Western U.S. upper low drifts slowly back northward on
Saturday, keeping deep southwest flow in place across all of
southern Colorado. Moisture across the region looks very limited,
with just some weak, high-based convection possible over the
central mountains. Over the plains, dryline will be lurking near
the KS border, but most model guidance keeps deeper
moisture/instability just east of the state line, and will go with
a dry forecast over the plains for now. Deep mixing Saturday will
lead to very warm and breezy conditions area-wide, and a few
locations on the plains will approach 90f by late afternoon. Upper
low tracks northeastward into Canada Sunday, with southwest flow
continuing across Colorado. Dryline appears to mix well east of
the KS border in the afternoon, and will keep pops out of the
plains once again as dry air mass spreads eastward from the
mountains. Mid levels do moisten slightly by afternoon over the
higher terrain, and may be just enough instability for some high
based -tsra, though with dry surface layer, precip will likely be
very light. All of the area will see another day of very warm and
windy conditions, though max temps may drift downward a couple
degf as heights fall slightly by Sat evening.

Weak cold front drops south through the plains Sunday evening,
though any upslope surge should be short-lived as new energy drops
into the western U.S. upper trough, with southwest flow reforming
a lee surface low over ern CO during the day Mon. Moisture remains
limited Mon, with again only a few high based mountain storms
possible. Pattern persists Tue/Wed as wrn trough continues to
deepen, keeping sw flow aloft in place with only limited moisture
across the area. Models hint at occasional shallow moisture
sloshing into ern CO both Tue and Wed mornings, before mixing
quickly eastward as dry sw flow reaches the surface later in the
day. Will keep mainly just some low pops in place over the
mountains for both Tue and Wed afternoons, though again precip
coverage/intensity will be rather sparse/weak. Deeper moisture
makes a better push into southern CO Thu/Fri as energy from the
western trough finally begins to push eastward and gives cold
front a stronger shove southward. Still some timing differences
among various models, but main message is a gradual increase in
precip chances both days as moisture and lift both ramp up. Max
temps Mon-Wed will stay rather warm, then drift downward slowly
late week as cooler air filters south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016

COS, PUB and ALS should remain VFR for the next 24 hours. There is
some patchy stratus across eastern El Paso county this morning,
though this should not make into COS terminal. There also remains
a low probability of a few afternoon and evening storms over the
eastern mts and Palmer Divide, but do not expect them to impact
the VC COS. Winds will be a bit stronger today with surface winds
10-20 KTS generally from the SE over the plains and S-SW over the
San Luis Valley. Convection to diminish after sun set with
clearing skies overnight.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW



  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1101 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Forecast models are consistent and add confidence for forecast details. The upper low over Washington state will sink into northern California on Friday. Northwest flow aloft this evening backs to southwest on Friday with the strongest gradient over Utah. Afternoon wind gusts of around 45 mph are expected so a Wind Advisory has been issued for SE Utah and far NW Colorado. These stronger wind gusts should diminish in the valleys early Friday evening though exposed higher terrain should have gusty winds through the night. There is enough residual moisture to set off late- day, mainly- mountain convection. Associated virga or light showers could produce locally stronger winds. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Saturday, the low works into eastern Oregon stretched across the western Great Basin. Southwest gradient winds will increase a few mph, but cloud cover may inhibit vertical mixing and valley wind gusts somewhat. Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft MSL. A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1101 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Isolated showers over the higher terrain will continue here and there through midmorning, but pose little threat to airport operations. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity over the higher terrain from late morning into the evening in response to daytime warming. Meanwhile, winds will become strong as a storm system moves southward into northern California and northwest Nevada, especially over southeast Utah and northwest Colorado. Wind gusts in excess of 45 MPH are likely in the areas just mentioned, but will decrease after 8 PM MDT. Outflow winds from thunderstorms could top 50 MPH. && .GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... CO...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ001. UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for UTZ022-027-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...JOE LONG TERM...JOE AVIATION...NL
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1051 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 839 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken over the next few hours as nocturnal processes become dominant. Decided to cut down pops over the Rampart, Wet, and Sangre de Cristo Mtns as shower activity continues to wane. Latest model guidance continues to suggest shower activity moving into the Central Mtns from the west during the early morning hours...thus decided to rise pops slightly over the Central and northern San Juan Mtns. Otherwise, the current forecast remains on track. Lukinbeal/Mozley && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Currently... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring across the region at 2 pm. the best coverage of storms were over the Wet and Sangre mtns. a few showers/-tsra were noted over the I-25 corridor and san luis valley. upper low was located over the sc KS area and flow aloft was from the N-NW. This flow was allowing for a few showers to move onto the plains. Temps across the region were seasonable...with readings in the 50s to L70s across the Plains...and 50s and 60s in the valleys. Rest of today into tonight... Scattered showers will continue over the higher trrn with more isold activity expected over the valleys and the plains adjacent to the mtns into the early evening hours. Once the sun sets...showers will come to an end. The only exception will be the Central mtns were some showers may approach this region towards sunrise as a weak disturbance moves across the central part of the State. Temps tonight will be seasonable with lows in the 40s across the plains and 30s in the valleys. /Hodanish Tomorrow... Drier sw flow aloft moves over the fcst region. Although we will see some isold tsra over the mtns and possibly the plains...I expect we will see less coverage than what we have seen today. Temperatures will continue to warm...and expect another 10 degree warming...with highs in the mid 80s across a good part of the Plains. Overall best chance of precip tomorrow will likely be the c mtn area. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Friday night through Sunday...Long range models agree on placing an upper low pressure system over the West Coast Fri night and Sat, producing brisk SW flow aloft across the 4 Corners as well as very warm temps for the forecast area. Save for isolated convection over the mts, and mainly the central mts, each aftn and eve, conditions will remain dry for much of the CWA. Look for max temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to upper 80s for the plains. The upper low migrates to the north and slides across the Northern Rockies on Sun, pushing a cold front down into eastern CO Sun night. Monday through Thursday...As the one upper feature passes to the northeast, another upper trough of low pressure develops over Northern CA and the Pacific NW. This will once again produce southwest flow aloft across the 4 Corners. Multiple disturbances in the upper flow will cross the state, serving as the trigger for scattered convection over the mts, and isolated activity for the plains, for Tue and Wed. Therefore, look for isolated mt convection on Mon with aftn temps about 10 degrees cooler than on Sun. Convective activity increases for all areas Tue and Wed, with max temps in the 70s to around 80 F for the plains, and in the 60s for the high valleys. The upper low to the west finally starts to make a move towards CO on Thu, which will likely mean cooler temps and a higher probability for some showers and storms. Moore && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1044 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 TAF sites should remain VFR for the next 24-30 hours. There is a low probability of a few afternoon and evening storms over the Palmer Divide...but they should not impact the VC KCOS. Winds will be a bit stronger tomorrow...with surface winds generally from the SE over the plains and S-SW over the San Luis Valley. Rose && .PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LUKINBEAL/MOZLEY SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...ROSE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 853 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 839 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken over the next few hours as noctoral processes become dominate. Decided to cut down pops over the Rampart, Wet, and Sangre de Cristo Mtns as shower activity continues to wane. Latest model guidance continues to suggest shower activity moving into the Central Mtns from the west during the early morning hours...thus decided to rise pops slightly over the Central and northern San Juan Mtns. Otherwise, the current forecast remains on track. Lukinbeal/Mozley && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Currently... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring across the region at 2 pm. the best coverage of storms were over the Wet and Sangre mtns. a few showers/-tsra were noted over the I-25 corridor and san luis valley. upper low was located over the sc KS area and flow aloft was from the N-NW. This flow was allowing for a few showers to move onto the plains. Temps across the region were seasonable...with readings in the 50s to L70s across the Plains...and 50s and 60s in the valleys. Rest of today into tonight... Scattered showers will continue over the higher trrn with more isold activity expected over the valleys and the plains adjacent to the mtns into the early evening hours. Once the sun sets...showers will come to an end. The only exception will be the Central mtns were some showers may approach this region towards sunrise as a weak disturbance moves across the central part of the State. Temps tonight will be seasonable with lows in the 40s across the plains and 30s in the valleys. /Hodanish Tomorrow... Drier sw flow aloft moves over the fcst region. Although we will see some isold tsra over the mtns and possibly the plains...I expect we will see less coverage than what we have seen today. Temperatures will continue to warm...and expect another 10 degree warming...with highs in the mid 80s across a good part of the Plains. Overall best chance of precip tomorrow will likely be the c mtn area. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Friday night through Sunday...Long range models agree on placing an upper low pressure system over the West Coast Fri night and Sat, producing brisk SW flow aloft across the 4 Corners as well as very warm temps for the forecast area. Save for isolated convection over the mts, and mainly the central mts, each aftn and eve, conditions will remain dry for much of the CWA. Look for max temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to upper 80s for the plains. The upper low migrates to the north and slides across the Northern Rockies on Sun, pushing a cold front down into eastern CO Sun night. Monday through Thursday...As the one upper feature passes to the northeast, another upper trough of low pressure develops over Northern CA and the Pacific NW. This will once again produce southwest flow aloft across the 4 Corners. Multiple disturbances in the upper flow will cross the state, serving as the trigger for scattered convection over the mts, and isolated activity for the plains, for Tue and Wed. Therefore, look for isolated mt convection on Mon with aftn temps about 10 degrees cooler than on Sun. Convective activity increases for all areas Tue and Wed, with max temps in the 70s to around 80 F for the plains, and in the 60s for the high valleys. The upper low to the west finally starts to make a move towards CO on Thu, which will likely mean cooler temps and a higher probability for some showers and storms. Moore && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 VFR conditions anticipated during the next 24h at all 3 taf sites...kpub...kcos and kals. winds will be light and diurnally driven. isold weak -tsra will be possible this afternoon at evening at all 3 taf sites...but probability is low that they will occur. the best chance of any precip will be over KCOS. && .PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LUKINBEAL/MOZLEY SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...HODANISH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 401 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Forecast models are consistent and add confidence for forecast details. The upper low over Washington state will sink into northern California on Friday. Northwest flow aloft this evening backs to southwest on Friday with the strongest gradient over Utah. Afternoon wind gusts of around 45 mph are expected so a Wind Advisory has been issued for SE Utah and far NW Colorado. These stronger wind gusts should diminish in the valleys early Friday evening though exposed higher terrain should have gusty winds through the night. There is enough residual moisture to set off late- day, mainly- mountain convection. Associated virga or light showers could produce locally stronger winds. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Saturday, the low works into eastern Oregon stretched across the western Great Basin. Southwest gradient winds will increase a few mph, but cloud cover may inhibit vertical mixing and valley wind gusts somewhat. Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft MSL. A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Most of the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will end by 03z. some turbulence is expected to develop overnight and southwest winds aloft strengthen. Gusty southwest winds will begin to mix into TAF sites around 18z Saturday. Afternoon gusts of 45 mph are possible mainly at KCNY KTEX with gusts to 30 to 40 mph elsewhere. Isolated afternoon showers and virga threaten locally very strong wind gusts. && .GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... CO...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ001. UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for UTZ022-027-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...JOE LONG TERM...JOE AVIATION...JOE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1232 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 251 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016 A transitory ridge will move across the area today. This will help remove a bit of the moisture that has been over the forecast area and suppress s some of the convective development this afternoon and evening. The next big pacific storm will move down the west coast from the pacnw to northern ca tonight and friday. The ridgeline will move east of the area friday and that will allow increase southerly surface winds ahead of the large trough along the west coast. Have increased wind speeds and gusts across the board friday. The pacific storm will slowly move inland friday but the forecast area should remain under a dry slot. The big story will be increasing south to southwest winds friday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed May 18 2016 A large upper level low will sink south and then stall in the vicinity of the interior Pac NW states by Saturday. We will be in the tighter gradient region between this low and the ridge of high pressure over the central U.S. Saturday and Sunday which will bring a breezy to windy and warm pattern to our region. Cannot rule out isolated diurnal convection over the higher terrain Friday and Saturday...but should have a little better coverage on Sunday as a minor upper level trough moves through. As the upper level low weakens and moves north, individual shortwave troughs caught in the broad long wave trough over the western U.s. will begin to cross the region every 36 hours or so next week. Precipitable water values will be about half what they are now...so expect only isolated mainly diurnally driven convection over the mountains each day. After Saturday, as the region comes under the trough aloft, temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1227 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 isold shower and a few storms will fire this afternoon though coverage is expected to be less than seen yesterday. convection will form over mountains so main concerns aviation-wise will be mtn tafs including kase...kege...and ktex where vcts looks good for now. kmtj and kdro may see some activity but confidence not high enough to include in taf attm. most precip will end by 03z with next concern being gusty winds tomorrow starting after 17z or so. gusts of 30 to even 40 mph are possible at times. the strongest winds are expected over kcny with lesser winds elsewhere. && .GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CC LONG TERM...BEN AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1112 AM MDT THU MAY 19 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 340 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Some low stratus and fog has developed over portions of El Paso county this morning. The San Luis Valley also has some low clouds this morning. The HRRR and nam are suggesting the stratus should dissipate by 15-16z this morning. An upr trof wl be to the east ovr KS and TX today, with a shortwave ridge ovr CO through tonight. There wl be enough mstr ovr the area today for isold to sct showers and tstms to develop ovr the mtns and high valleys, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Could even see a couple showers/storms move out ovr the I-25 corridor. high temps today wl be warmer than yesterday and should generally be just a few degrees below average. by late tonight most if not all pcpn should end. however, toward morning the nam is suggesting an area of pcpn could move into the CONTDVD, but the gfs is dry. it looks like low stratus could develop tonight ovr portions of the sern plains, mainly from KLHX and eastward, although it also looks like portions of El Paso county may also see the low clouds. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 340 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Friday-Saturday...A warmer and drier weather pattern continues to be in the offing as upper level ridging builds into the region on Friday, with southwest flow aloft increasing into Saturday ahead of EPAC energy digging across the West Coast and into the Great Basin. Enough residual moisture will be in place to support isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms both days, mainly over and near the higher terrain. Storms that do develop look to be higher based, with lightning and gusty winds the main threats. Latest models are indicating fairly deep mixing across the area on Saturday supporting breezy south to southwest winds into the afternoon and early evening and pushing dry line well into Kansas. Warming aloft continues across the area with temperatures warming back to at and above seasonal levels with highs in the 70s and 80s across the lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain. Breezy winds...warm temps and low afternoon humidities to lead to increased fire danger on Saturday, however, with green up well underway, do not think fuels across the area will be critical. Saturday night-Monday...Moderate to strong southwest flow aloft progged across the region as the Great Basin system lifts out across the northern Rockies on Monday. Pattern keeps the area warm and breezy, with isolated to scattered storms possible over and near the higher terrain. There could be a few stronger storms across the far southeast plains Saturday night and Sunday, with the dry line possibly retrograding back near the Kansas border. Should see temperatures remaining AOA seasonal averages through the period. Tuesday-Wednesday...Latest model guidance is indicating moderate west to southwest flow aloft across the region, with occasional embedded short waves translating across the Rockies. This pattern would lead to generally warm and breezy conditions across the area, with chances of showers and storms associated with the passing waves, mainly over and near the higher terrain. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1059 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016 VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24h at all 3 taf sites...KPUB...KALS and KCOS. Surface winds will be light and diurnally driven. Brief -TSRA will be possible at the 3 taf sites this afternoon and early evening...with locally gusty winds possible with the -TSRA. && .PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...HODANISH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 422 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicating generally weak west to southwest flow aloft across the state with upper level ridging building across the Rockies ahead of broad upper trough digging across the West Coast at this time. Water vapor imagery is also indicating mid and upper level moisture streaming out ahead of this system across the Desert Southwest and into the Great Basin. At the surface, a deepening LHX low and associated east to southeast low level winds across the far southeast plains is keeping dew pts in the upper 30s to upper 40s, and has helped to develop stratus from eastern portions of El Paso county through portions of Otero, Kiowa, Prowers and Baca counties at this time. Today and Tonight... No big changes to ongoing forecast, with slowly increasing southwest flow aloft expected across the region as the West Coast upper trough continues to dig into the Desert Southwest, pushing the upper ridge across the far eastern plains and into western Kansas tonight. Warming aloft, denoted by WAA clouds spreading into western CO at this time, will continue to warm temperatures back to at and above seasonal levels today, with highs in the 70s and 80s across the lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain. Models continue to indicate enough moisture in place to support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected across the central mountains into the Pikes Peak region. Surface low pressure to persist across the plains today, with breezy east to southeast winds helping to advect low level moisture across the far southeast plains into northeastern CO through the afternoon...where latest SPC outlook has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today. With the upper ridge building across the southeast plains, convection looks to be capped today, however, storms which can develop across the Pikes Peak region could quickly strengthen as they move north and east off the Palmer Dvd and into northeastern CO. Convection to diminish and end after sun set with clearing skies overnight, save the far se plains, where could see some stratus develop once again overnight. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016 Western U.S. upper low drifts slowly back northward on Saturday, keeping deep southwest flow in place across all of southern Colorado. Moisture across the region looks very limited, with just some weak, high-based convection possible over the central mountains. Over the plains, dryline will be lurking near the KS border, but most model guidance keeps deeper moisture/instability just east of the state line, and will go with a dry forecast over the plains for now. Deep mixing Saturday will lead to very warm and breezy conditions area-wide, and a few locations on the plains will approach 90f by late afternoon. Upper low tracks northeastward into Canada Sunday, with southwest flow continuing across Colorado. Dryline appears to mix well east of the KS border in the afternoon, and will keep pops out of the plains once again as dry air mass spreads eastward from the mountains. Mid levels do moisten slightly by afternoon over the higher terrain, and may be just enough instability for some high based -tsra, though with dry surface layer, precip will likely be very light. All of the area will see another day of very warm and windy conditions, though max temps may drift downward a couple degf as heights fall slightly by Sat evening. Weak cold front drops south through the plains Sunday evening, though any upslope surge should be short-lived as new energy drops into the western U.S. upper trough, with southwest flow reforming a lee surface low over ern CO during the day Mon. Moisture remains limited Mon, with again only a few high based mountain storms possible. Pattern persists Tue/Wed as wrn trough continues to deepen, keeping sw flow aloft in place with only limited moisture across the area. Models hint at occasional shallow moisture sloshing into ern CO both Tue and Wed mornings, before mixing quickly eastward as dry sw flow reaches the surface later in the day. Will keep mainly just some low pops in place over the mountains for both Tue and Wed afternoons, though again precip coverage/intensity will be rather sparse/weak. Deeper moisture makes a better push into southern CO Thu/Fri as energy from the western trough finally begins to push eastward and gives cold front a stronger shove southward. Still some timing differences among various models, but main message is a gradual increase in precip chances both days as moisture and lift both ramp up. Max temps Mon-Wed will stay rather warm, then drift downward slowly late week as cooler air filters south. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016 COS, PUB and ALS should remain VFR for the next 24 hours. There is some patchy stratus across eastern El Paso county this morning, though this should not make into COS terminal. There also remains a low probability of a few afternoon and evening storms over the eastern mts and Palmer Divide, but do not expect them to impact the VC COS. Winds will be a bit stronger today with surface winds 10-20 KTS generally from the SE over the plains and S-SW over the San Luis Valley. Convection to diminish after sun set with clearing skies overnight. && .PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...MW
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1101 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Forecast models are consistent and add confidence for forecast details. The upper low over Washington state will sink into northern California on Friday. Northwest flow aloft this evening backs to southwest on Friday with the strongest gradient over Utah. Afternoon wind gusts of around 45 mph are expected so a Wind Advisory has been issued for SE Utah and far NW Colorado. These stronger wind gusts should diminish in the valleys early Friday evening though exposed higher terrain should have gusty winds through the night. There is enough residual moisture to set off late- day, mainly- mountain convection. Associated virga or light showers could produce locally stronger winds. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Saturday, the low works into eastern Oregon stretched across the western Great Basin. Southwest gradient winds will increase a few mph, but cloud cover may inhibit vertical mixing and valley wind gusts somewhat. Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft MSL. A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1101 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Isolated showers over the higher terrain will continue here and there through midmorning, but pose little threat to airport operations. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity over the higher terrain from late morning into the evening in response to daytime warming. Meanwhile, winds will become strong as a storm system moves southward into northern California and northwest Nevada, especially over southeast Utah and northwest Colorado. Wind gusts in excess of 45 MPH are likely in the areas just mentioned, but will decrease after 8 PM MDT. Outflow winds from thunderstorms could top 50 MPH. && .GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... CO...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ001. UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for UTZ022-027-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...JOE LONG TERM...JOE AVIATION...NL
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1051 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 839 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken over the next few hours as nocturnal processes become dominant. Decided to cut down pops over the Rampart, Wet, and Sangre de Cristo Mtns as shower activity continues to wane. Latest model guidance continues to suggest shower activity moving into the Central Mtns from the west during the early morning hours...thus decided to rise pops slightly over the Central and northern San Juan Mtns. Otherwise, the current forecast remains on track. Lukinbeal/Mozley && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Currently... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring across the region at 2 pm. the best coverage of storms were over the Wet and Sangre mtns. a few showers/-tsra were noted over the I-25 corridor and san luis valley. upper low was located over the sc KS area and flow aloft was from the N-NW. This flow was allowing for a few showers to move onto the plains. Temps across the region were seasonable...with readings in the 50s to L70s across the Plains...and 50s and 60s in the valleys. Rest of today into tonight... Scattered showers will continue over the higher trrn with more isold activity expected over the valleys and the plains adjacent to the mtns into the early evening hours. Once the sun sets...showers will come to an end. The only exception will be the Central mtns were some showers may approach this region towards sunrise as a weak disturbance moves across the central part of the State. Temps tonight will be seasonable with lows in the 40s across the plains and 30s in the valleys. /Hodanish Tomorrow... Drier sw flow aloft moves over the fcst region. Although we will see some isold tsra over the mtns and possibly the plains...I expect we will see less coverage than what we have seen today. Temperatures will continue to warm...and expect another 10 degree warming...with highs in the mid 80s across a good part of the Plains. Overall best chance of precip tomorrow will likely be the c mtn area. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Friday night through Sunday...Long range models agree on placing an upper low pressure system over the West Coast Fri night and Sat, producing brisk SW flow aloft across the 4 Corners as well as very warm temps for the forecast area. Save for isolated convection over the mts, and mainly the central mts, each aftn and eve, conditions will remain dry for much of the CWA. Look for max temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to upper 80s for the plains. The upper low migrates to the north and slides across the Northern Rockies on Sun, pushing a cold front down into eastern CO Sun night. Monday through Thursday...As the one upper feature passes to the northeast, another upper trough of low pressure develops over Northern CA and the Pacific NW. This will once again produce southwest flow aloft across the 4 Corners. Multiple disturbances in the upper flow will cross the state, serving as the trigger for scattered convection over the mts, and isolated activity for the plains, for Tue and Wed. Therefore, look for isolated mt convection on Mon with aftn temps about 10 degrees cooler than on Sun. Convective activity increases for all areas Tue and Wed, with max temps in the 70s to around 80 F for the plains, and in the 60s for the high valleys. The upper low to the west finally starts to make a move towards CO on Thu, which will likely mean cooler temps and a higher probability for some showers and storms. Moore && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1044 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 TAF sites should remain VFR for the next 24-30 hours. There is a low probability of a few afternoon and evening storms over the Palmer Divide...but they should not impact the VC KCOS. Winds will be a bit stronger tomorrow...with surface winds generally from the SE over the plains and S-SW over the San Luis Valley. Rose && .PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LUKINBEAL/MOZLEY SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...ROSE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 853 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 839 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken over the next few hours as noctoral processes become dominate. Decided to cut down pops over the Rampart, Wet, and Sangre de Cristo Mtns as shower activity continues to wane. Latest model guidance continues to suggest shower activity moving into the Central Mtns from the west during the early morning hours...thus decided to rise pops slightly over the Central and northern San Juan Mtns. Otherwise, the current forecast remains on track. Lukinbeal/Mozley && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Currently... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring across the region at 2 pm. the best coverage of storms were over the Wet and Sangre mtns. a few showers/-tsra were noted over the I-25 corridor and san luis valley. upper low was located over the sc KS area and flow aloft was from the N-NW. This flow was allowing for a few showers to move onto the plains. Temps across the region were seasonable...with readings in the 50s to L70s across the Plains...and 50s and 60s in the valleys. Rest of today into tonight... Scattered showers will continue over the higher trrn with more isold activity expected over the valleys and the plains adjacent to the mtns into the early evening hours. Once the sun sets...showers will come to an end. The only exception will be the Central mtns were some showers may approach this region towards sunrise as a weak disturbance moves across the central part of the State. Temps tonight will be seasonable with lows in the 40s across the plains and 30s in the valleys. /Hodanish Tomorrow... Drier sw flow aloft moves over the fcst region. Although we will see some isold tsra over the mtns and possibly the plains...I expect we will see less coverage than what we have seen today. Temperatures will continue to warm...and expect another 10 degree warming...with highs in the mid 80s across a good part of the Plains. Overall best chance of precip tomorrow will likely be the c mtn area. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Friday night through Sunday...Long range models agree on placing an upper low pressure system over the West Coast Fri night and Sat, producing brisk SW flow aloft across the 4 Corners as well as very warm temps for the forecast area. Save for isolated convection over the mts, and mainly the central mts, each aftn and eve, conditions will remain dry for much of the CWA. Look for max temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to upper 80s for the plains. The upper low migrates to the north and slides across the Northern Rockies on Sun, pushing a cold front down into eastern CO Sun night. Monday through Thursday...As the one upper feature passes to the northeast, another upper trough of low pressure develops over Northern CA and the Pacific NW. This will once again produce southwest flow aloft across the 4 Corners. Multiple disturbances in the upper flow will cross the state, serving as the trigger for scattered convection over the mts, and isolated activity for the plains, for Tue and Wed. Therefore, look for isolated mt convection on Mon with aftn temps about 10 degrees cooler than on Sun. Convective activity increases for all areas Tue and Wed, with max temps in the 70s to around 80 F for the plains, and in the 60s for the high valleys. The upper low to the west finally starts to make a move towards CO on Thu, which will likely mean cooler temps and a higher probability for some showers and storms. Moore && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 VFR conditions anticipated during the next 24h at all 3 taf sites...kpub...kcos and kals. winds will be light and diurnally driven. isold weak -tsra will be possible this afternoon at evening at all 3 taf sites...but probability is low that they will occur. the best chance of any precip will be over KCOS. && .PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LUKINBEAL/MOZLEY SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...HODANISH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 401 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Forecast models are consistent and add confidence for forecast details. The upper low over Washington state will sink into northern California on Friday. Northwest flow aloft this evening backs to southwest on Friday with the strongest gradient over Utah. Afternoon wind gusts of around 45 mph are expected so a Wind Advisory has been issued for SE Utah and far NW Colorado. These stronger wind gusts should diminish in the valleys early Friday evening though exposed higher terrain should have gusty winds through the night. There is enough residual moisture to set off late- day, mainly- mountain convection. Associated virga or light showers could produce locally stronger winds. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Saturday, the low works into eastern Oregon stretched across the western Great Basin. Southwest gradient winds will increase a few mph, but cloud cover may inhibit vertical mixing and valley wind gusts somewhat. Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft MSL. A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Most of the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will end by 03z. some turbulence is expected to develop overnight and southwest winds aloft strengthen. Gusty southwest winds will begin to mix into TAF sites around 18z Saturday. Afternoon gusts of 45 mph are possible mainly at KCNY KTEX with gusts to 30 to 40 mph elsewhere. Isolated afternoon showers and virga threaten locally very strong wind gusts. && .GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... CO...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ001. UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for UTZ022-027-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...JOE LONG TERM...JOE AVIATION...JOE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1232 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 251 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016 A transitory ridge will move across the area today. This will help remove a bit of the moisture that has been over the forecast area and suppress s some of the convective development this afternoon and evening. The next big pacific storm will move down the west coast from the pacnw to northern ca tonight and friday. The ridgeline will move east of the area friday and that will allow increase southerly surface winds ahead of the large trough along the west coast. Have increased wind speeds and gusts across the board friday. The pacific storm will slowly move inland friday but the forecast area should remain under a dry slot. The big story will be increasing south to southwest winds friday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed May 18 2016 A large upper level low will sink south and then stall in the vicinity of the interior Pac NW states by Saturday. We will be in the tighter gradient region between this low and the ridge of high pressure over the central U.S. Saturday and Sunday which will bring a breezy to windy and warm pattern to our region. Cannot rule out isolated diurnal convection over the higher terrain Friday and Saturday...but should have a little better coverage on Sunday as a minor upper level trough moves through. As the upper level low weakens and moves north, individual shortwave troughs caught in the broad long wave trough over the western U.s. will begin to cross the region every 36 hours or so next week. Precipitable water values will be about half what they are now...so expect only isolated mainly diurnally driven convection over the mountains each day. After Saturday, as the region comes under the trough aloft, temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1227 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 isold shower and a few storms will fire this afternoon though coverage is expected to be less than seen yesterday. convection will form over mountains so main concerns aviation-wise will be mtn tafs including kase...kege...and ktex where vcts looks good for now. kmtj and kdro may see some activity but confidence not high enough to include in taf attm. most precip will end by 03z with next concern being gusty winds tomorrow starting after 17z or so. gusts of 30 to even 40 mph are possible at times. the strongest winds are expected over kcny with lesser winds elsewhere. && .GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CC LONG TERM...BEN AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1112 AM MDT THU MAY 19 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 340 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Some low stratus and fog has developed over portions of El Paso county this morning. The San Luis Valley also has some low clouds this morning. The HRRR and nam are suggesting the stratus should dissipate by 15-16z this morning. An upr trof wl be to the east ovr KS and TX today, with a shortwave ridge ovr CO through tonight. There wl be enough mstr ovr the area today for isold to sct showers and tstms to develop ovr the mtns and high valleys, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Could even see a couple showers/storms move out ovr the I-25 corridor. high temps today wl be warmer than yesterday and should generally be just a few degrees below average. by late tonight most if not all pcpn should end. however, toward morning the nam is suggesting an area of pcpn could move into the CONTDVD, but the gfs is dry. it looks like low stratus could develop tonight ovr portions of the sern plains, mainly from KLHX and eastward, although it also looks like portions of El Paso county may also see the low clouds. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 340 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Friday-Saturday...A warmer and drier weather pattern continues to be in the offing as upper level ridging builds into the region on Friday, with southwest flow aloft increasing into Saturday ahead of EPAC energy digging across the West Coast and into the Great Basin. Enough residual moisture will be in place to support isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms both days, mainly over and near the higher terrain. Storms that do develop look to be higher based, with lightning and gusty winds the main threats. Latest models are indicating fairly deep mixing across the area on Saturday supporting breezy south to southwest winds into the afternoon and early evening and pushing dry line well into Kansas. Warming aloft continues across the area with temperatures warming back to at and above seasonal levels with highs in the 70s and 80s across the lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain. Breezy winds...warm temps and low afternoon humidities to lead to increased fire danger on Saturday, however, with green up well underway, do not think fuels across the area will be critical. Saturday night-Monday...Moderate to strong southwest flow aloft progged across the region as the Great Basin system lifts out across the northern Rockies on Monday. Pattern keeps the area warm and breezy, with isolated to scattered storms possible over and near the higher terrain. There could be a few stronger storms across the far southeast plains Saturday night and Sunday, with the dry line possibly retrograding back near the Kansas border. Should see temperatures remaining AOA seasonal averages through the period. Tuesday-Wednesday...Latest model guidance is indicating moderate west to southwest flow aloft across the region, with occasional embedded short waves translating across the Rockies. This pattern would lead to generally warm and breezy conditions across the area, with chances of showers and storms associated with the passing waves, mainly over and near the higher terrain. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1059 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016 VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24h at all 3 taf sites...KPUB...KALS and KCOS. Surface winds will be light and diurnally driven. Brief -TSRA will be possible at the 3 taf sites this afternoon and early evening...with locally gusty winds possible with the -TSRA. && .PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...HODANISH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 342 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016 Windy and mild continue through these periods. This early afternoon, southwest winds have been in the 30s to low 40s mph in the western valleys, 40s to mid 50s in the western mountains. These winds will be increasing over the next 36 hours as the upper Low over northern California tracks slowly to the northeast. Gusty winds are expected to continue and strengthen over high exposed terrain tonight, even mixing into a few western valley locations. Elsewhere valleys will have shallow inversions keeping overnight low temperatures mild. MSLP gradient and 700-600MB winds increase on Saturday. Therefore have issued another Wind Advisory for eastern Utah including the mountains, and spreading a bit further into far western Colorado. Another mild night expected Saturday night as a cold front works across Utah. Afternoon convection has been minimal and less than forecasted. Overall this spring the models seem to be overproducing QPF. Therefore have lowered POPs for the weekend. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016 Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of the trough pushing across our northern counties. The cold front works through the forecast area, strongest forcing across the north. But the moisture will have eroded from PW values around 0.7 inch now to around 0.3 on Sunday. So showers will be minimal. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger shortwave still timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016 VFR conditions dominate. Isolated mainly mountain thunderstorms should be circumnavigable. moderate to strong turbulence is the main threat as southwest winds will gust to 30-40 mph this afternoon and again on Saturday. Tonight strong southwest winds will continue over higher terrain mixing into western TAF sites at times, including KCNY KTEX. Low level wind shear will be possible at all TAF sites through 18z Saturday when the inversions are expected to break. && $$ SHORT TERM...JOE LONG TERM...JOE AVIATION...JOE
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 337 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016 Not many adjustments required from earlier forecast reasoning with primary near/short term meteorological concerns for the forecast district being isolated pops, areas of low clouds and fog developing over eastern sections later tonight, temperatures and gusty winds at times. Forecast district currently graced by variable clouds, locally gusty winds, isolated shower and thunderstorm activity, primarily to the north of the CWFA and generally above seasonal late May afternoon temperatures. Recent real-time data, PV analysis, forecast model soundings and computer simulations indicate that relatively dry southwesterly upper flow will prevail over the forecast district during the next 24 hours, however enough atmospheric moisture interacting with the daily orographic heating cycle and a passing weak upper disturbance will be capable of generating isolated showers and thunderstorms(some potentially strong at times), into this evening, primarily over eastern portions of the CWFA. In addition, have depicted areas of low clouds and fog developing later tonight over primarily eastern portions of the forecast district. Gusty winds are also anticipated at times during the next 24 hours, however per recent direction of area land agencies, will refrain from any fire weather highlights as fuels are not favorable. Finally, above seasonal temperatures are expected to continue over the majority of the forecast district during the next 24 hours. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016 A generally dry and warm period is anticipated during this long term forecast period as the region will be under modest southwesterly flow aloft. I anticipate the dryline will remain primarily to the east of the forecast area...so the probability of severe convection is low. the only exception to this may be late in the period as the guidance shows a stronger disturbance moving across the region during the Thursday/Friday time frame. for later this weekend (Sunday)...it will be quite warm...dry and windy across the region. Meteorological conditions will be favorable for extreme fire behavior...however after talking to the folks at Pueblo Dispatch...fuels are not conducive to rapid spread. Likewise...no fire weather hilites will be issued. Max temps both days will be well into the 80s across the Plains...and a 90 or two is not out of the question. Southwest wind gusts to 25 to 35 mph are likely. a cold front will cross the area Sunday night...and a bit cooler weather is expected for Monday. However...it will remain quite dry in the low levels after fropa...and very little if any thunder is expected over the region Monday afternoon. If thunder does occur...it will likely be in the Pikes Peak region and central mtn areas. Dry southwesterly flow at lower levels will likely develop once again Tuesday and last into Thursday. By late in the week...the stronger disturbance discussed above will move across the region and this may back the llvl winds enough to bring llvl moisture into the region which may allow for thunderstorms over the plains late Thu afternoon and possibly Fri afternoon. This disturbance late in the week will also bring a better chance of tsra to the mtns. /Hodanish && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016 Isolated later afternoon into evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible over sections of the district...primarily near the KCOS taf site into this evening. However, still anticipate that southwesterly upper flow will allow VFR conditions to continue over the KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites into Saturday. In addition, have also depicted areas of low clouds/fog over some eastern locations from later tonight into early Saturday morning, with low clouds/areas of fog possibly encroaching the KCOS and KPUB taf sites during this time-frame...WFO PUB will monitor closely. && .PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...77
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1130 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 323 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016 The shortrange models appear on track in positioning the low center along the Oregon coast this morning. Satellite images show the circulation center over extreme sw Oregon and sliding gradually east. The jet curved cyclonically from the San Francisco area over central Nevada then turn more to the north over western Montana. The tightest gradient was edging toward western Utah. This wind band will move east today and cause winds to increase over eastern UT and western CO this afternoon and evening. The gradient should be tight enough to bring wind advisory level wind speeds to the lower elevations of SE UT and extreme NW CO. Gusts to 45 mph are probable. The only factor that could hamper this will be the band of mid and high cloud the will advect over the area. The main wind band is projected over the forecast area Saturday so believe windy conditions will continue. Cloud cover should thicken as well so have held off and any wind highlights at this time as the cloud cover may interfere with vertical mixing. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft MSL. A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1125 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016 SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA BUT TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS REACHING 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH 02Z OR SO. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW WITH WINDS POSSIBLY GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. && .GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... CO...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ001. UT...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ022-027-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...CC LONG TERM...JOE AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1126 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 451 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016 Increased coverage of stratus and fog across Pueblo county through the early morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicating generally weak west to southwest flow aloft across the state with upper level ridging building across the Rockies ahead of broad upper trough digging across the West Coast at this time. Water vapor imagery is also indicating mid and upper level moisture streaming out ahead of this system across the Desert Southwest and into the Great Basin. At the surface, a deepening LHX low and associated east to southeast low level winds across the far southeast plains is keeping dew pts in the upper 30s to upper 40s, and has helped to develop stratus from eastern portions of El Paso county through portions of Otero, Kiowa, Prowers and Baca counties at this time. Today and Tonight... No big changes to ongoing forecast, with slowly increasing southwest flow aloft expected across the region as the West Coast upper trough continues to dig into the Desert Southwest, pushing the upper ridge across the far eastern plains and into western Kansas tonight. Warming aloft, denoted by WAA clouds spreading into western CO at this time, will continue to warm temperatures back to at and above seasonal levels today, with highs in the 70s and 80s across the lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain. Models continue to indicate enough moisture in place to support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected across the central mountains into the Pikes Peak region. Surface low pressure to persist across the plains today, with breezy east to southeast winds helping to advect low level moisture across the far southeast plains into northeastern CO through the afternoon...where latest SPC outlook has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today. With the upper ridge building across the southeast plains, convection looks to be capped today, however, storms which can develop across the Pikes Peak region could quickly strengthen as they move north and east off the Palmer Dvd and into northeastern CO. Convection to diminish and end after sun set with clearing skies overnight, save the far se plains, where could see some stratus develop once again overnight. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016 Western U.S. upper low drifts slowly back northward on Saturday, keeping deep southwest flow in place across all of southern Colorado. Moisture across the region looks very limited, with just some weak, high-based convection possible over the central mountains. Over the plains, dryline will be lurking near the KS border, but most model guidance keeps deeper moisture/instability just east of the state line, and will go with a dry forecast over the plains for now. Deep mixing Saturday will lead to very warm and breezy conditions area-wide, and a few locations on the plains will approach 90f by late afternoon. Upper low tracks northeastward into Canada Sunday, with southwest flow continuing across Colorado. Dryline appears to mix well east of the KS border in the afternoon, and will keep pops out of the plains once again as dry air mass spreads eastward from the mountains. Mid levels do moisten slightly by afternoon over the higher terrain, and may be just enough instability for some high based -tsra, though with dry surface layer, precip will likely be very light. All of the area will see another day of very warm and windy conditions, though max temps may drift downward a couple degf as heights fall slightly by Sat evening. Weak cold front drops south through the plains Sunday evening, though any upslope surge should be short-lived as new energy drops into the western U.S. upper trough, with southwest flow reforming a lee surface low over ern CO during the day Mon. Moisture remains limited Mon, with again only a few high based mountain storms possible. Pattern persists Tue/Wed as wrn trough continues to deepen, keeping sw flow aloft in place with only limited moisture across the area. Models hint at occasional shallow moisture sloshing into ern CO both Tue and Wed mornings, before mixing quickly eastward as dry sw flow reaches the surface later in the day. Will keep mainly just some low pops in place over the mountains for both Tue and Wed afternoons, though again precip coverage/intensity will be rather sparse/weak. Deeper moisture makes a better push into southern CO Thu/Fri as energy from the western trough finally begins to push eastward and gives cold front a stronger shove southward. Still some timing differences among various models, but main message is a gradual increase in precip chances both days as moisture and lift both ramp up. Max temps Mon-Wed will stay rather warm, then drift downward slowly late week as cooler air filters south. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1134 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016 ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KCOS TAF SITE...ANTICIPATE THAT SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 422 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicating generally weak west to southwest flow aloft across the state with upper level ridging building across the Rockies ahead of broad upper trough digging across the West Coast at this time. Water vapor imagery is also indicating mid and upper level moisture streaming out ahead of this system across the Desert Southwest and into the Great Basin. At the surface, a deepening LHX low and associated east to southeast low level winds across the far southeast plains is keeping dew pts in the upper 30s to upper 40s, and has helped to develop stratus from eastern portions of El Paso county through portions of Otero, Kiowa, Prowers and Baca counties at this time. Today and Tonight... No big changes to ongoing forecast, with slowly increasing southwest flow aloft expected across the region as the West Coast upper trough continues to dig into the Desert Southwest, pushing the upper ridge across the far eastern plains and into western Kansas tonight. Warming aloft, denoted by WAA clouds spreading into western CO at this time, will continue to warm temperatures back to at and above seasonal levels today, with highs in the 70s and 80s across the lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain. Models continue to indicate enough moisture in place to support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected across the central mountains into the Pikes Peak region. Surface low pressure to persist across the plains today, with breezy east to southeast winds helping to advect low level moisture across the far southeast plains into northeastern CO through the afternoon...where latest SPC outlook has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today. With the upper ridge building across the southeast plains, convection looks to be capped today, however, storms which can develop across the Pikes Peak region could quickly strengthen as they move north and east off the Palmer Dvd and into northeastern CO. Convection to diminish and end after sun set with clearing skies overnight, save the far se plains, where could see some stratus develop once again overnight. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016 Western U.S. upper low drifts slowly back northward on Saturday, keeping deep southwest flow in place across all of southern Colorado. Moisture across the region looks very limited, with just some weak, high-based convection possible over the central mountains. Over the plains, dryline will be lurking near the KS border, but most model guidance keeps deeper moisture/instability just east of the state line, and will go with a dry forecast over the plains for now. Deep mixing Saturday will lead to very warm and breezy conditions area-wide, and a few locations on the plains will approach 90f by late afternoon. Upper low tracks northeastward into Canada Sunday, with southwest flow continuing across Colorado. Dryline appears to mix well east of the KS border in the afternoon, and will keep pops out of the plains once again as dry air mass spreads eastward from the mountains. Mid levels do moisten slightly by afternoon over the higher terrain, and may be just enough instability for some high based -tsra, though with dry surface layer, precip will likely be very light. All of the area will see another day of very warm and windy conditions, though max temps may drift downward a couple degf as heights fall slightly by Sat evening. Weak cold front drops south through the plains Sunday evening, though any upslope surge should be short-lived as new energy drops into the western U.S. upper trough, with southwest flow reforming a lee surface low over ern CO during the day Mon. Moisture remains limited Mon, with again only a few high based mountain storms possible. Pattern persists Tue/Wed as wrn trough continues to deepen, keeping sw flow aloft in place with only limited moisture across the area. Models hint at occasional shallow moisture sloshing into ern CO both Tue and Wed mornings, before mixing quickly eastward as dry sw flow reaches the surface later in the day. Will keep mainly just some low pops in place over the mountains for both Tue and Wed afternoons, though again precip coverage/intensity will be rather sparse/weak. Deeper moisture makes a better push into southern CO Thu/Fri as energy from the western trough finally begins to push eastward and gives cold front a stronger shove southward. Still some timing differences among various models, but main message is a gradual increase in precip chances both days as moisture and lift both ramp up. Max temps Mon-Wed will stay rather warm, then drift downward slowly late week as cooler air filters south. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016 COS, PUB and ALS should remain VFR for the next 24 hours. There is some patchy stratus across eastern El Paso county this morning, though this should not make into COS terminal. There also remains a low probability of a few afternoon and evening storms over the eastern mts and Palmer Divide, but do not expect them to impact the VC COS. Winds will be a bit stronger today with surface winds 10-20 KTS generally from the SE over the plains and S-SW over the San Luis Valley. Convection to diminish after sun set with clearing skies overnight. && .PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...MW
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1101 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Forecast models are consistent and add confidence for forecast details. The upper low over Washington state will sink into northern California on Friday. Northwest flow aloft this evening backs to southwest on Friday with the strongest gradient over Utah. Afternoon wind gusts of around 45 mph are expected so a Wind Advisory has been issued for SE Utah and far NW Colorado. These stronger wind gusts should diminish in the valleys early Friday evening though exposed higher terrain should have gusty winds through the night. There is enough residual moisture to set off late- day, mainly- mountain convection. Associated virga or light showers could produce locally stronger winds. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Saturday, the low works into eastern Oregon stretched across the western Great Basin. Southwest gradient winds will increase a few mph, but cloud cover may inhibit vertical mixing and valley wind gusts somewhat. Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft MSL. A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1101 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Isolated showers over the higher terrain will continue here and there through midmorning, but pose little threat to airport operations. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity over the higher terrain from late morning into the evening in response to daytime warming. Meanwhile, winds will become strong as a storm system moves southward into northern California and northwest Nevada, especially over southeast Utah and northwest Colorado. Wind gusts in excess of 45 MPH are likely in the areas just mentioned, but will decrease after 8 PM MDT. Outflow winds from thunderstorms could top 50 MPH. && .GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... CO...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ001. UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for UTZ022-027-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...JOE LONG TERM...JOE AVIATION...NL
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1051 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 839 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken over the next few hours as nocturnal processes become dominant. Decided to cut down pops over the Rampart, Wet, and Sangre de Cristo Mtns as shower activity continues to wane. Latest model guidance continues to suggest shower activity moving into the Central Mtns from the west during the early morning hours...thus decided to rise pops slightly over the Central and northern San Juan Mtns. Otherwise, the current forecast remains on track. Lukinbeal/Mozley && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Currently... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring across the region at 2 pm. the best coverage of storms were over the Wet and Sangre mtns. a few showers/-tsra were noted over the I-25 corridor and san luis valley. upper low was located over the sc KS area and flow aloft was from the N-NW. This flow was allowing for a few showers to move onto the plains. Temps across the region were seasonable...with readings in the 50s to L70s across the Plains...and 50s and 60s in the valleys. Rest of today into tonight... Scattered showers will continue over the higher trrn with more isold activity expected over the valleys and the plains adjacent to the mtns into the early evening hours. Once the sun sets...showers will come to an end. The only exception will be the Central mtns were some showers may approach this region towards sunrise as a weak disturbance moves across the central part of the State. Temps tonight will be seasonable with lows in the 40s across the plains and 30s in the valleys. /Hodanish Tomorrow... Drier sw flow aloft moves over the fcst region. Although we will see some isold tsra over the mtns and possibly the plains...I expect we will see less coverage than what we have seen today. Temperatures will continue to warm...and expect another 10 degree warming...with highs in the mid 80s across a good part of the Plains. Overall best chance of precip tomorrow will likely be the c mtn area. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Friday night through Sunday...Long range models agree on placing an upper low pressure system over the West Coast Fri night and Sat, producing brisk SW flow aloft across the 4 Corners as well as very warm temps for the forecast area. Save for isolated convection over the mts, and mainly the central mts, each aftn and eve, conditions will remain dry for much of the CWA. Look for max temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to upper 80s for the plains. The upper low migrates to the north and slides across the Northern Rockies on Sun, pushing a cold front down into eastern CO Sun night. Monday through Thursday...As the one upper feature passes to the northeast, another upper trough of low pressure develops over Northern CA and the Pacific NW. This will once again produce southwest flow aloft across the 4 Corners. Multiple disturbances in the upper flow will cross the state, serving as the trigger for scattered convection over the mts, and isolated activity for the plains, for Tue and Wed. Therefore, look for isolated mt convection on Mon with aftn temps about 10 degrees cooler than on Sun. Convective activity increases for all areas Tue and Wed, with max temps in the 70s to around 80 F for the plains, and in the 60s for the high valleys. The upper low to the west finally starts to make a move towards CO on Thu, which will likely mean cooler temps and a higher probability for some showers and storms. Moore && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1044 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 TAF sites should remain VFR for the next 24-30 hours. There is a low probability of a few afternoon and evening storms over the Palmer Divide...but they should not impact the VC KCOS. Winds will be a bit stronger tomorrow...with surface winds generally from the SE over the plains and S-SW over the San Luis Valley. Rose && .PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LUKINBEAL/MOZLEY SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...ROSE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 853 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 839 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken over the next few hours as noctoral processes become dominate. Decided to cut down pops over the Rampart, Wet, and Sangre de Cristo Mtns as shower activity continues to wane. Latest model guidance continues to suggest shower activity moving into the Central Mtns from the west during the early morning hours...thus decided to rise pops slightly over the Central and northern San Juan Mtns. Otherwise, the current forecast remains on track. Lukinbeal/Mozley && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Currently... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring across the region at 2 pm. the best coverage of storms were over the Wet and Sangre mtns. a few showers/-tsra were noted over the I-25 corridor and san luis valley. upper low was located over the sc KS area and flow aloft was from the N-NW. This flow was allowing for a few showers to move onto the plains. Temps across the region were seasonable...with readings in the 50s to L70s across the Plains...and 50s and 60s in the valleys. Rest of today into tonight... Scattered showers will continue over the higher trrn with more isold activity expected over the valleys and the plains adjacent to the mtns into the early evening hours. Once the sun sets...showers will come to an end. The only exception will be the Central mtns were some showers may approach this region towards sunrise as a weak disturbance moves across the central part of the State. Temps tonight will be seasonable with lows in the 40s across the plains and 30s in the valleys. /Hodanish Tomorrow... Drier sw flow aloft moves over the fcst region. Although we will see some isold tsra over the mtns and possibly the plains...I expect we will see less coverage than what we have seen today. Temperatures will continue to warm...and expect another 10 degree warming...with highs in the mid 80s across a good part of the Plains. Overall best chance of precip tomorrow will likely be the c mtn area. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Friday night through Sunday...Long range models agree on placing an upper low pressure system over the West Coast Fri night and Sat, producing brisk SW flow aloft across the 4 Corners as well as very warm temps for the forecast area. Save for isolated convection over the mts, and mainly the central mts, each aftn and eve, conditions will remain dry for much of the CWA. Look for max temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to upper 80s for the plains. The upper low migrates to the north and slides across the Northern Rockies on Sun, pushing a cold front down into eastern CO Sun night. Monday through Thursday...As the one upper feature passes to the northeast, another upper trough of low pressure develops over Northern CA and the Pacific NW. This will once again produce southwest flow aloft across the 4 Corners. Multiple disturbances in the upper flow will cross the state, serving as the trigger for scattered convection over the mts, and isolated activity for the plains, for Tue and Wed. Therefore, look for isolated mt convection on Mon with aftn temps about 10 degrees cooler than on Sun. Convective activity increases for all areas Tue and Wed, with max temps in the 70s to around 80 F for the plains, and in the 60s for the high valleys. The upper low to the west finally starts to make a move towards CO on Thu, which will likely mean cooler temps and a higher probability for some showers and storms. Moore && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 VFR conditions anticipated during the next 24h at all 3 taf sites...kpub...kcos and kals. winds will be light and diurnally driven. isold weak -tsra will be possible this afternoon at evening at all 3 taf sites...but probability is low that they will occur. the best chance of any precip will be over KCOS. && .PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LUKINBEAL/MOZLEY SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...HODANISH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 401 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Forecast models are consistent and add confidence for forecast details. The upper low over Washington state will sink into northern California on Friday. Northwest flow aloft this evening backs to southwest on Friday with the strongest gradient over Utah. Afternoon wind gusts of around 45 mph are expected so a Wind Advisory has been issued for SE Utah and far NW Colorado. These stronger wind gusts should diminish in the valleys early Friday evening though exposed higher terrain should have gusty winds through the night. There is enough residual moisture to set off late- day, mainly- mountain convection. Associated virga or light showers could produce locally stronger winds. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Saturday, the low works into eastern Oregon stretched across the western Great Basin. Southwest gradient winds will increase a few mph, but cloud cover may inhibit vertical mixing and valley wind gusts somewhat. Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft MSL. A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Most of the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will end by 03z. some turbulence is expected to develop overnight and southwest winds aloft strengthen. Gusty southwest winds will begin to mix into TAF sites around 18z Saturday. Afternoon gusts of 45 mph are possible mainly at KCNY KTEX with gusts to 30 to 40 mph elsewhere. Isolated afternoon showers and virga threaten locally very strong wind gusts. && .GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... CO...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ001. UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for UTZ022-027-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...JOE LONG TERM...JOE AVIATION...JOE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1232 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 251 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016 A transitory ridge will move across the area today. This will help remove a bit of the moisture that has been over the forecast area and suppress s some of the convective development this afternoon and evening. The next big pacific storm will move down the west coast from the pacnw to northern ca tonight and friday. The ridgeline will move east of the area friday and that will allow increase southerly surface winds ahead of the large trough along the west coast. Have increased wind speeds and gusts across the board friday. The pacific storm will slowly move inland friday but the forecast area should remain under a dry slot. The big story will be increasing south to southwest winds friday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed May 18 2016 A large upper level low will sink south and then stall in the vicinity of the interior Pac NW states by Saturday. We will be in the tighter gradient region between this low and the ridge of high pressure over the central U.S. Saturday and Sunday which will bring a breezy to windy and warm pattern to our region. Cannot rule out isolated diurnal convection over the higher terrain Friday and Saturday...but should have a little better coverage on Sunday as a minor upper level trough moves through. As the upper level low weakens and moves north, individual shortwave troughs caught in the broad long wave trough over the western U.s. will begin to cross the region every 36 hours or so next week. Precipitable water values will be about half what they are now...so expect only isolated mainly diurnally driven convection over the mountains each day. After Saturday, as the region comes under the trough aloft, temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1227 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016 isold shower and a few storms will fire this afternoon though coverage is expected to be less than seen yesterday. convection will form over mountains so main concerns aviation-wise will be mtn tafs including kase...kege...and ktex where vcts looks good for now. kmtj and kdro may see some activity but confidence not high enough to include in taf attm. most precip will end by 03z with next concern being gusty winds tomorrow starting after 17z or so. gusts of 30 to even 40 mph are possible at times. the strongest winds are expected over kcny with lesser winds elsewhere. && .GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CC LONG TERM...BEN AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1112 AM MDT THU MAY 19 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 340 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Some low stratus and fog has developed over portions of El Paso county this morning. The San Luis Valley also has some low clouds this morning. The HRRR and nam are suggesting the stratus should dissipate by 15-16z this morning. An upr trof wl be to the east ovr KS and TX today, with a shortwave ridge ovr CO through tonight. There wl be enough mstr ovr the area today for isold to sct showers and tstms to develop ovr the mtns and high valleys, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Could even see a couple showers/storms move out ovr the I-25 corridor. high temps today wl be warmer than yesterday and should generally be just a few degrees below average. by late tonight most if not all pcpn should end. however, toward morning the nam is suggesting an area of pcpn could move into the CONTDVD, but the gfs is dry. it looks like low stratus could develop tonight ovr portions of the sern plains, mainly from KLHX and eastward, although it also looks like portions of El Paso county may also see the low clouds. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 340 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016 Friday-Saturday...A warmer and drier weather pattern continues to be in the offing as upper level ridging builds into the region on Friday, with southwest flow aloft increasing into Saturday ahead of EPAC energy digging across the West Coast and into the Great Basin. Enough residual moisture will be in place to support isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms both days, mainly over and near the higher terrain. Storms that do develop look to be higher based, with lightning and gusty winds the main threats. Latest models are indicating fairly deep mixing across the area on Saturday supporting breezy south to southwest winds into the afternoon and early evening and pushing dry line well into Kansas. Warming aloft continues across the area with temperatures warming back to at and above seasonal levels with highs in the 70s and 80s across the lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain. Breezy winds...warm temps and low afternoon humidities to lead to increased fire danger on Saturday, however, with green up well underway, do not think fuels across the area will be critical. Saturday night-Monday...Moderate to strong southwest flow aloft progged across the region as the Great Basin system lifts out across the northern Rockies on Monday. Pattern keeps the area warm and breezy, with isolated to scattered storms possible over and near the higher terrain. There could be a few stronger storms across the far southeast plains Saturday night and Sunday, with the dry line possibly retrograding back near the Kansas border. Should see temperatures remaining AOA seasonal averages through the period. Tuesday-Wednesday...Latest model guidance is indicating moderate west to southwest flow aloft across the region, with occasional embedded short waves translating across the Rockies. This pattern would lead to generally warm and breezy conditions across the area, with chances of showers and storms associated with the passing waves, mainly over and near the higher terrain. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1059 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016 VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24h at all 3 taf sites...KPUB...KALS and KCOS. Surface winds will be light and diurnally driven. Brief -TSRA will be possible at the 3 taf sites this afternoon and early evening...with locally gusty winds possible with the -TSRA. && .PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...HODANISH