Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/20/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
422 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicating
generally weak west to southwest flow aloft across the state with
upper level ridging building across the Rockies ahead of broad upper
trough digging across the West Coast at this time. Water vapor
imagery is also indicating mid and upper level moisture streaming
out ahead of this system across the Desert Southwest and into the
Great Basin. At the surface, a deepening LHX low and associated east
to southeast low level winds across the far southeast plains is
keeping dew pts in the upper 30s to upper 40s, and has helped to
develop stratus from eastern portions of El Paso county through
portions of Otero, Kiowa, Prowers and Baca counties at this time.
Today and Tonight...
No big changes to ongoing forecast, with slowly increasing southwest
flow aloft expected across the region as the West Coast upper trough
continues to dig into the Desert Southwest, pushing the upper ridge
across the far eastern plains and into western Kansas tonight.
Warming aloft, denoted by WAA clouds spreading into western CO at
this time, will continue to warm temperatures back to at and above
seasonal levels today, with highs in the 70s and 80s across the
lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain.
Models continue to indicate enough moisture in place to support
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area this
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected across the
central mountains into the Pikes Peak region. Surface low pressure
to persist across the plains today, with breezy east to southeast
winds helping to advect low level moisture across the far southeast
plains into northeastern CO through the afternoon...where latest SPC
outlook has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today. With the
upper ridge building across the southeast plains, convection looks
to be capped today, however, storms which can develop across the
Pikes Peak region could quickly strengthen as they move north and
east off the Palmer Dvd and into northeastern CO. Convection to
diminish and end after sun set with clearing skies overnight, save
the far se plains, where could see some stratus develop once again
overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Western U.S. upper low drifts slowly back northward on
Saturday, keeping deep southwest flow in place across all of
southern Colorado. Moisture across the region looks very limited,
with just some weak, high-based convection possible over the
central mountains. Over the plains, dryline will be lurking near
the KS border, but most model guidance keeps deeper
moisture/instability just east of the state line, and will go with
a dry forecast over the plains for now. Deep mixing Saturday will
lead to very warm and breezy conditions area-wide, and a few
locations on the plains will approach 90f by late afternoon. Upper
low tracks northeastward into Canada Sunday, with southwest flow
continuing across Colorado. Dryline appears to mix well east of
the KS border in the afternoon, and will keep pops out of the
plains once again as dry air mass spreads eastward from the
mountains. Mid levels do moisten slightly by afternoon over the
higher terrain, and may be just enough instability for some high
based -tsra, though with dry surface layer, precip will likely be
very light. All of the area will see another day of very warm and
windy conditions, though max temps may drift downward a couple
degf as heights fall slightly by Sat evening.
Weak cold front drops south through the plains Sunday evening,
though any upslope surge should be short-lived as new energy drops
into the western U.S. upper trough, with southwest flow reforming
a lee surface low over ern CO during the day Mon. Moisture remains
limited Mon, with again only a few high based mountain storms
possible. Pattern persists Tue/Wed as wrn trough continues to
deepen, keeping sw flow aloft in place with only limited moisture
across the area. Models hint at occasional shallow moisture
sloshing into ern CO both Tue and Wed mornings, before mixing
quickly eastward as dry sw flow reaches the surface later in the
day. Will keep mainly just some low pops in place over the
mountains for both Tue and Wed afternoons, though again precip
coverage/intensity will be rather sparse/weak. Deeper moisture
makes a better push into southern CO Thu/Fri as energy from the
western trough finally begins to push eastward and gives cold
front a stronger shove southward. Still some timing differences
among various models, but main message is a gradual increase in
precip chances both days as moisture and lift both ramp up. Max
temps Mon-Wed will stay rather warm, then drift downward slowly
late week as cooler air filters south.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
COS, PUB and ALS should remain VFR for the next 24 hours. There is
some patchy stratus across eastern El Paso county this morning,
though this should not make into COS terminal. There also remains
a low probability of a few afternoon and evening storms over the
eastern mts and Palmer Divide, but do not expect them to impact
the VC COS. Winds will be a bit stronger today with surface winds
10-20 KTS generally from the SE over the plains and S-SW over the
San Luis Valley. Convection to diminish after sun set with
clearing skies overnight.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1101 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Forecast models are consistent and add confidence for forecast
details. The upper low over Washington state will sink into
northern California on Friday. Northwest flow aloft this evening
backs to southwest on Friday with the strongest gradient over
Utah. Afternoon wind gusts of around 45 mph are expected so a Wind
Advisory has been issued for SE Utah and far NW Colorado. These
stronger wind gusts should diminish in the valleys early Friday
evening though exposed higher terrain should have gusty winds
through the night. There is enough residual moisture to set off
late- day, mainly- mountain convection. Associated virga or light
showers could produce locally stronger winds.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Saturday, the low works into eastern Oregon stretched across the
western Great Basin. Southwest gradient winds will increase a few
mph, but cloud cover may inhibit vertical mixing and valley wind
gusts somewhat.
Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring
increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern
mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a
storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new
week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft
MSL.
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1101 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Isolated showers over the higher terrain will continue here and
there through midmorning, but pose little threat to airport
operations. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will increase in
coverage and intensity over the higher terrain from late morning
into the evening in response to daytime warming. Meanwhile, winds
will become strong as a storm system moves southward into northern
California and northwest Nevada, especially over southeast Utah
and northwest Colorado. Wind gusts in excess of 45 MPH are likely
in the areas just mentioned, but will decrease after 8 PM MDT.
Outflow winds from thunderstorms could top 50 MPH.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ001.
UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...NL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1051 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken over the next
few hours as nocturnal processes become dominant. Decided to cut
down pops over the Rampart, Wet, and Sangre de Cristo Mtns as
shower activity continues to wane. Latest model guidance continues
to suggest shower activity moving into the Central Mtns from the
west during the early morning hours...thus decided to rise pops
slightly over the Central and northern San Juan Mtns. Otherwise,
the current forecast remains on track. Lukinbeal/Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Currently...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring
across the region at 2 pm. the best coverage of storms were over the
Wet and Sangre mtns. a few showers/-tsra were noted over the I-25
corridor and san luis valley.
upper low was located over the sc KS area and flow aloft was from
the N-NW. This flow was allowing for a few showers to move onto the
plains.
Temps across the region were seasonable...with readings in the 50s
to L70s across the Plains...and 50s and 60s in the valleys.
Rest of today into tonight...
Scattered showers will continue over the higher trrn with more isold
activity expected over the valleys and the plains adjacent to the
mtns into the early evening hours. Once the sun sets...showers will
come to an end. The only exception will be the Central mtns were
some showers may approach this region towards sunrise as a weak
disturbance moves across the central part of the State.
Temps tonight will be seasonable with lows in the 40s across the
plains and 30s in the valleys. /Hodanish
Tomorrow...
Drier sw flow aloft moves over the fcst region. Although we will see
some isold tsra over the mtns and possibly the plains...I expect we
will see less coverage than what we have seen today. Temperatures
will continue to warm...and expect another 10 degree warming...with
highs in the mid 80s across a good part of the Plains. Overall best
chance of precip tomorrow will likely be the c mtn area.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Friday night through Sunday...Long range models agree on placing an
upper low pressure system over the West Coast Fri night and Sat,
producing brisk SW flow aloft across the 4 Corners as well as very
warm temps for the forecast area. Save for isolated convection over
the mts, and mainly the central mts, each aftn and eve, conditions
will remain dry for much of the CWA. Look for max temps in the upper
60s to mid 70s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to upper 80s for
the plains. The upper low migrates to the north and slides across
the Northern Rockies on Sun, pushing a cold front down into eastern
CO Sun night.
Monday through Thursday...As the one upper feature passes to the
northeast, another upper trough of low pressure develops over
Northern CA and the Pacific NW. This will once again produce
southwest flow aloft across the 4 Corners. Multiple disturbances in
the upper flow will cross the state, serving as the trigger for
scattered convection over the mts, and isolated activity for the
plains, for Tue and Wed. Therefore, look for isolated mt convection
on Mon with aftn temps about 10 degrees cooler than on Sun.
Convective activity increases for all areas Tue and Wed, with max
temps in the 70s to around 80 F for the plains, and in the 60s for
the high valleys. The upper low to the west finally starts to make a
move towards CO on Thu, which will likely mean cooler temps and a
higher probability for some showers and storms. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1044 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
TAF sites should remain VFR for the next 24-30 hours. There is a
low probability of a few afternoon and evening storms over the
Palmer Divide...but they should not impact the VC KCOS. Winds
will be a bit stronger tomorrow...with surface winds generally
from the SE over the plains and S-SW over the San Luis Valley.
Rose
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LUKINBEAL/MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
853 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken over the next
few hours as noctoral processes become dominate. Decided to cut
down pops over the Rampart, Wet, and Sangre de Cristo Mtns as
shower activity continues to wane. Latest model guidance continues
to suggest shower activity moving into the Central Mtns from the
west during the early morning hours...thus decided to rise pops
slightly over the Central and northern San Juan Mtns. Otherwise,
the current forecast remains on track. Lukinbeal/Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Currently...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring
across the region at 2 pm. the best coverage of storms were over the
Wet and Sangre mtns. a few showers/-tsra were noted over the I-25
corridor and san luis valley.
upper low was located over the sc KS area and flow aloft was from
the N-NW. This flow was allowing for a few showers to move onto the
plains.
Temps across the region were seasonable...with readings in the 50s
to L70s across the Plains...and 50s and 60s in the valleys.
Rest of today into tonight...
Scattered showers will continue over the higher trrn with more isold
activity expected over the valleys and the plains adjacent to the
mtns into the early evening hours. Once the sun sets...showers will
come to an end. The only exception will be the Central mtns were
some showers may approach this region towards sunrise as a weak
disturbance moves across the central part of the State.
Temps tonight will be seasonable with lows in the 40s across the
plains and 30s in the valleys. /Hodanish
Tomorrow...
Drier sw flow aloft moves over the fcst region. Although we will see
some isold tsra over the mtns and possibly the plains...I expect we
will see less coverage than what we have seen today. Temperatures
will continue to warm...and expect another 10 degree warming...with
highs in the mid 80s across a good part of the Plains. Overall best
chance of precip tomorrow will likely be the c mtn area.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Friday night through Sunday...Long range models agree on placing an
upper low pressure system over the West Coast Fri night and Sat,
producing brisk SW flow aloft across the 4 Corners as well as very
warm temps for the forecast area. Save for isolated convection over
the mts, and mainly the central mts, each aftn and eve, conditions
will remain dry for much of the CWA. Look for max temps in the upper
60s to mid 70s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to upper 80s for
the plains. The upper low migrates to the north and slides across
the Northern Rockies on Sun, pushing a cold front down into eastern
CO Sun night.
Monday through Thursday...As the one upper feature passes to the
northeast, another upper trough of low pressure develops over
Northern CA and the Pacific NW. This will once again produce
southwest flow aloft across the 4 Corners. Multiple disturbances in
the upper flow will cross the state, serving as the trigger for
scattered convection over the mts, and isolated activity for the
plains, for Tue and Wed. Therefore, look for isolated mt convection
on Mon with aftn temps about 10 degrees cooler than on Sun.
Convective activity increases for all areas Tue and Wed, with max
temps in the 70s to around 80 F for the plains, and in the 60s for
the high valleys. The upper low to the west finally starts to make a
move towards CO on Thu, which will likely mean cooler temps and a
higher probability for some showers and storms. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
VFR conditions anticipated during the next 24h at all 3 taf
sites...kpub...kcos and kals. winds will be light and diurnally
driven.
isold weak -tsra will be possible this afternoon at evening at all 3
taf sites...but probability is low that they will occur. the best
chance of any precip will be over KCOS.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LUKINBEAL/MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
401 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Forecast models are consistent and add confidence for forecast
details. The upper low over Washington state will sink into
northern California on Friday. Northwest flow aloft this evening
backs to southwest on Friday with the strongest gradient over
Utah. Afternoon wind gusts of around 45 mph are expected so a Wind
Advisory has been issued for SE Utah and far NW Colorado. These
stronger wind gusts should diminish in the valleys early Friday
evening though exposed higher terrain should have gusty winds
through the night. There is enough residual moisture to set off
late- day, mainly- mountain convection. Associated virga or light
showers could produce locally stronger winds.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Saturday, the low works into eastern Oregon stretched across the
western Great Basin. Southwest gradient winds will increase a few
mph, but cloud cover may inhibit vertical mixing and valley wind
gusts somewhat.
Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring
increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern
mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a
storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new
week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft
MSL.
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Most of the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will end
by 03z. some turbulence is expected to develop overnight and
southwest winds aloft strengthen. Gusty southwest winds will begin
to mix into TAF sites around 18z Saturday. Afternoon gusts of 45
mph are possible mainly at KCNY KTEX with gusts to 30 to 40 mph
elsewhere. Isolated afternoon showers and virga threaten locally
very strong wind gusts.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ001.
UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JOE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1232 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016
A transitory ridge will move across the area today. This will
help remove a bit of the moisture that has been over the forecast
area and suppress s some of the convective development this
afternoon and evening. The next big pacific storm will move down
the west coast from the pacnw to northern ca tonight and friday.
The ridgeline will move east of the area friday and that will
allow increase southerly surface winds ahead of the large trough
along the west coast. Have increased wind speeds and gusts across
the board friday. The pacific storm will slowly move inland friday
but the forecast area should remain under a dry slot. The big
story will be increasing south to southwest winds friday
afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed May 18 2016
A large upper level low will sink south and then stall in the
vicinity of the interior Pac NW states by Saturday. We will be in
the tighter gradient region between this low and the ridge of high
pressure over the central U.S. Saturday and Sunday which will
bring a breezy to windy and warm pattern to our region. Cannot
rule out isolated diurnal convection over the higher terrain
Friday and Saturday...but should have a little better coverage on
Sunday as a minor upper level trough moves through. As the upper
level low weakens and moves north, individual shortwave troughs
caught in the broad long wave trough over the western U.s. will
begin to cross the region every 36 hours or so next week.
Precipitable water values will be about half what they are
now...so expect only isolated mainly diurnally driven convection
over the mountains each day. After Saturday, as the region comes
under the trough aloft, temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
isold shower and a few storms will fire this afternoon though
coverage is expected to be less than seen yesterday. convection
will form over mountains so main concerns aviation-wise will be
mtn tafs including kase...kege...and ktex where vcts looks good
for now. kmtj and kdro may see some activity but confidence not
high enough to include in taf attm. most precip will end by 03z
with next concern being gusty winds tomorrow starting after 17z or
so. gusts of 30 to even 40 mph are possible at times. the
strongest winds are expected over kcny with lesser winds
elsewhere.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1112 AM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Some low stratus and fog has developed over portions of El Paso
county this morning. The San Luis Valley also has some low clouds
this morning. The HRRR and nam are suggesting the stratus should
dissipate by 15-16z this morning.
An upr trof wl be to the east ovr KS and TX today, with a shortwave
ridge ovr CO through tonight. There wl be enough mstr ovr the area
today for isold to sct showers and tstms to develop ovr the mtns and
high valleys, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Could
even see a couple showers/storms move out ovr the I-25 corridor.
high temps today wl be warmer than yesterday and should generally be
just a few degrees below average.
by late tonight most if not all pcpn should end. however, toward
morning the nam is suggesting an area of pcpn could move into the
CONTDVD, but the gfs is dry. it looks like low stratus could
develop tonight ovr portions of the sern plains, mainly from KLHX
and eastward, although it also looks like portions of El Paso county
may also see the low clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Friday-Saturday...A warmer and drier weather pattern continues to be
in the offing as upper level ridging builds into the region on
Friday, with southwest flow aloft increasing into Saturday ahead of
EPAC energy digging across the West Coast and into the Great Basin.
Enough residual moisture will be in place to support isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms both days, mainly
over and near the higher terrain. Storms that do develop look to be
higher based, with lightning and gusty winds the main threats.
Latest models are indicating fairly deep mixing across the area on
Saturday supporting breezy south to southwest winds into the
afternoon and early evening and pushing dry line well into Kansas.
Warming aloft continues across the area with temperatures warming
back to at and above seasonal levels with highs in the 70s and 80s
across the lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher
terrain. Breezy winds...warm temps and low afternoon humidities to
lead to increased fire danger on Saturday, however, with green up
well underway, do not think fuels across the area will be critical.
Saturday night-Monday...Moderate to strong southwest flow aloft
progged across the region as the Great Basin system lifts out across
the northern Rockies on Monday. Pattern keeps the area warm and
breezy, with isolated to scattered storms possible over and near the
higher terrain. There could be a few stronger storms across the far
southeast plains Saturday night and Sunday, with the dry line
possibly retrograding back near the Kansas border. Should see
temperatures remaining AOA seasonal averages through the period.
Tuesday-Wednesday...Latest model guidance is indicating moderate
west to southwest flow aloft across the region, with occasional
embedded short waves translating across the Rockies. This pattern
would lead to generally warm and breezy conditions across the area,
with chances of showers and storms associated with the passing
waves, mainly over and near the higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1059 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016
VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24h at all 3 taf
sites...KPUB...KALS and KCOS. Surface winds will be light and
diurnally driven. Brief -TSRA will be possible at the 3 taf sites
this afternoon and early evening...with locally gusty winds
possible with the -TSRA.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
422 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicating
generally weak west to southwest flow aloft across the state with
upper level ridging building across the Rockies ahead of broad upper
trough digging across the West Coast at this time. Water vapor
imagery is also indicating mid and upper level moisture streaming
out ahead of this system across the Desert Southwest and into the
Great Basin. At the surface, a deepening LHX low and associated east
to southeast low level winds across the far southeast plains is
keeping dew pts in the upper 30s to upper 40s, and has helped to
develop stratus from eastern portions of El Paso county through
portions of Otero, Kiowa, Prowers and Baca counties at this time.
Today and Tonight...
No big changes to ongoing forecast, with slowly increasing southwest
flow aloft expected across the region as the West Coast upper trough
continues to dig into the Desert Southwest, pushing the upper ridge
across the far eastern plains and into western Kansas tonight.
Warming aloft, denoted by WAA clouds spreading into western CO at
this time, will continue to warm temperatures back to at and above
seasonal levels today, with highs in the 70s and 80s across the
lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain.
Models continue to indicate enough moisture in place to support
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area this
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected across the
central mountains into the Pikes Peak region. Surface low pressure
to persist across the plains today, with breezy east to southeast
winds helping to advect low level moisture across the far southeast
plains into northeastern CO through the afternoon...where latest SPC
outlook has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today. With the
upper ridge building across the southeast plains, convection looks
to be capped today, however, storms which can develop across the
Pikes Peak region could quickly strengthen as they move north and
east off the Palmer Dvd and into northeastern CO. Convection to
diminish and end after sun set with clearing skies overnight, save
the far se plains, where could see some stratus develop once again
overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Western U.S. upper low drifts slowly back northward on
Saturday, keeping deep southwest flow in place across all of
southern Colorado. Moisture across the region looks very limited,
with just some weak, high-based convection possible over the
central mountains. Over the plains, dryline will be lurking near
the KS border, but most model guidance keeps deeper
moisture/instability just east of the state line, and will go with
a dry forecast over the plains for now. Deep mixing Saturday will
lead to very warm and breezy conditions area-wide, and a few
locations on the plains will approach 90f by late afternoon. Upper
low tracks northeastward into Canada Sunday, with southwest flow
continuing across Colorado. Dryline appears to mix well east of
the KS border in the afternoon, and will keep pops out of the
plains once again as dry air mass spreads eastward from the
mountains. Mid levels do moisten slightly by afternoon over the
higher terrain, and may be just enough instability for some high
based -tsra, though with dry surface layer, precip will likely be
very light. All of the area will see another day of very warm and
windy conditions, though max temps may drift downward a couple
degf as heights fall slightly by Sat evening.
Weak cold front drops south through the plains Sunday evening,
though any upslope surge should be short-lived as new energy drops
into the western U.S. upper trough, with southwest flow reforming
a lee surface low over ern CO during the day Mon. Moisture remains
limited Mon, with again only a few high based mountain storms
possible. Pattern persists Tue/Wed as wrn trough continues to
deepen, keeping sw flow aloft in place with only limited moisture
across the area. Models hint at occasional shallow moisture
sloshing into ern CO both Tue and Wed mornings, before mixing
quickly eastward as dry sw flow reaches the surface later in the
day. Will keep mainly just some low pops in place over the
mountains for both Tue and Wed afternoons, though again precip
coverage/intensity will be rather sparse/weak. Deeper moisture
makes a better push into southern CO Thu/Fri as energy from the
western trough finally begins to push eastward and gives cold
front a stronger shove southward. Still some timing differences
among various models, but main message is a gradual increase in
precip chances both days as moisture and lift both ramp up. Max
temps Mon-Wed will stay rather warm, then drift downward slowly
late week as cooler air filters south.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
COS, PUB and ALS should remain VFR for the next 24 hours. There is
some patchy stratus across eastern El Paso county this morning,
though this should not make into COS terminal. There also remains
a low probability of a few afternoon and evening storms over the
eastern mts and Palmer Divide, but do not expect them to impact
the VC COS. Winds will be a bit stronger today with surface winds
10-20 KTS generally from the SE over the plains and S-SW over the
San Luis Valley. Convection to diminish after sun set with
clearing skies overnight.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1101 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Forecast models are consistent and add confidence for forecast
details. The upper low over Washington state will sink into
northern California on Friday. Northwest flow aloft this evening
backs to southwest on Friday with the strongest gradient over
Utah. Afternoon wind gusts of around 45 mph are expected so a Wind
Advisory has been issued for SE Utah and far NW Colorado. These
stronger wind gusts should diminish in the valleys early Friday
evening though exposed higher terrain should have gusty winds
through the night. There is enough residual moisture to set off
late- day, mainly- mountain convection. Associated virga or light
showers could produce locally stronger winds.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Saturday, the low works into eastern Oregon stretched across the
western Great Basin. Southwest gradient winds will increase a few
mph, but cloud cover may inhibit vertical mixing and valley wind
gusts somewhat.
Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring
increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern
mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a
storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new
week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft
MSL.
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1101 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Isolated showers over the higher terrain will continue here and
there through midmorning, but pose little threat to airport
operations. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will increase in
coverage and intensity over the higher terrain from late morning
into the evening in response to daytime warming. Meanwhile, winds
will become strong as a storm system moves southward into northern
California and northwest Nevada, especially over southeast Utah
and northwest Colorado. Wind gusts in excess of 45 MPH are likely
in the areas just mentioned, but will decrease after 8 PM MDT.
Outflow winds from thunderstorms could top 50 MPH.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ001.
UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...NL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1051 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken over the next
few hours as nocturnal processes become dominant. Decided to cut
down pops over the Rampart, Wet, and Sangre de Cristo Mtns as
shower activity continues to wane. Latest model guidance continues
to suggest shower activity moving into the Central Mtns from the
west during the early morning hours...thus decided to rise pops
slightly over the Central and northern San Juan Mtns. Otherwise,
the current forecast remains on track. Lukinbeal/Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Currently...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring
across the region at 2 pm. the best coverage of storms were over the
Wet and Sangre mtns. a few showers/-tsra were noted over the I-25
corridor and san luis valley.
upper low was located over the sc KS area and flow aloft was from
the N-NW. This flow was allowing for a few showers to move onto the
plains.
Temps across the region were seasonable...with readings in the 50s
to L70s across the Plains...and 50s and 60s in the valleys.
Rest of today into tonight...
Scattered showers will continue over the higher trrn with more isold
activity expected over the valleys and the plains adjacent to the
mtns into the early evening hours. Once the sun sets...showers will
come to an end. The only exception will be the Central mtns were
some showers may approach this region towards sunrise as a weak
disturbance moves across the central part of the State.
Temps tonight will be seasonable with lows in the 40s across the
plains and 30s in the valleys. /Hodanish
Tomorrow...
Drier sw flow aloft moves over the fcst region. Although we will see
some isold tsra over the mtns and possibly the plains...I expect we
will see less coverage than what we have seen today. Temperatures
will continue to warm...and expect another 10 degree warming...with
highs in the mid 80s across a good part of the Plains. Overall best
chance of precip tomorrow will likely be the c mtn area.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Friday night through Sunday...Long range models agree on placing an
upper low pressure system over the West Coast Fri night and Sat,
producing brisk SW flow aloft across the 4 Corners as well as very
warm temps for the forecast area. Save for isolated convection over
the mts, and mainly the central mts, each aftn and eve, conditions
will remain dry for much of the CWA. Look for max temps in the upper
60s to mid 70s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to upper 80s for
the plains. The upper low migrates to the north and slides across
the Northern Rockies on Sun, pushing a cold front down into eastern
CO Sun night.
Monday through Thursday...As the one upper feature passes to the
northeast, another upper trough of low pressure develops over
Northern CA and the Pacific NW. This will once again produce
southwest flow aloft across the 4 Corners. Multiple disturbances in
the upper flow will cross the state, serving as the trigger for
scattered convection over the mts, and isolated activity for the
plains, for Tue and Wed. Therefore, look for isolated mt convection
on Mon with aftn temps about 10 degrees cooler than on Sun.
Convective activity increases for all areas Tue and Wed, with max
temps in the 70s to around 80 F for the plains, and in the 60s for
the high valleys. The upper low to the west finally starts to make a
move towards CO on Thu, which will likely mean cooler temps and a
higher probability for some showers and storms. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1044 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
TAF sites should remain VFR for the next 24-30 hours. There is a
low probability of a few afternoon and evening storms over the
Palmer Divide...but they should not impact the VC KCOS. Winds
will be a bit stronger tomorrow...with surface winds generally
from the SE over the plains and S-SW over the San Luis Valley.
Rose
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LUKINBEAL/MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
853 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken over the next
few hours as noctoral processes become dominate. Decided to cut
down pops over the Rampart, Wet, and Sangre de Cristo Mtns as
shower activity continues to wane. Latest model guidance continues
to suggest shower activity moving into the Central Mtns from the
west during the early morning hours...thus decided to rise pops
slightly over the Central and northern San Juan Mtns. Otherwise,
the current forecast remains on track. Lukinbeal/Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Currently...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring
across the region at 2 pm. the best coverage of storms were over the
Wet and Sangre mtns. a few showers/-tsra were noted over the I-25
corridor and san luis valley.
upper low was located over the sc KS area and flow aloft was from
the N-NW. This flow was allowing for a few showers to move onto the
plains.
Temps across the region were seasonable...with readings in the 50s
to L70s across the Plains...and 50s and 60s in the valleys.
Rest of today into tonight...
Scattered showers will continue over the higher trrn with more isold
activity expected over the valleys and the plains adjacent to the
mtns into the early evening hours. Once the sun sets...showers will
come to an end. The only exception will be the Central mtns were
some showers may approach this region towards sunrise as a weak
disturbance moves across the central part of the State.
Temps tonight will be seasonable with lows in the 40s across the
plains and 30s in the valleys. /Hodanish
Tomorrow...
Drier sw flow aloft moves over the fcst region. Although we will see
some isold tsra over the mtns and possibly the plains...I expect we
will see less coverage than what we have seen today. Temperatures
will continue to warm...and expect another 10 degree warming...with
highs in the mid 80s across a good part of the Plains. Overall best
chance of precip tomorrow will likely be the c mtn area.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Friday night through Sunday...Long range models agree on placing an
upper low pressure system over the West Coast Fri night and Sat,
producing brisk SW flow aloft across the 4 Corners as well as very
warm temps for the forecast area. Save for isolated convection over
the mts, and mainly the central mts, each aftn and eve, conditions
will remain dry for much of the CWA. Look for max temps in the upper
60s to mid 70s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to upper 80s for
the plains. The upper low migrates to the north and slides across
the Northern Rockies on Sun, pushing a cold front down into eastern
CO Sun night.
Monday through Thursday...As the one upper feature passes to the
northeast, another upper trough of low pressure develops over
Northern CA and the Pacific NW. This will once again produce
southwest flow aloft across the 4 Corners. Multiple disturbances in
the upper flow will cross the state, serving as the trigger for
scattered convection over the mts, and isolated activity for the
plains, for Tue and Wed. Therefore, look for isolated mt convection
on Mon with aftn temps about 10 degrees cooler than on Sun.
Convective activity increases for all areas Tue and Wed, with max
temps in the 70s to around 80 F for the plains, and in the 60s for
the high valleys. The upper low to the west finally starts to make a
move towards CO on Thu, which will likely mean cooler temps and a
higher probability for some showers and storms. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
VFR conditions anticipated during the next 24h at all 3 taf
sites...kpub...kcos and kals. winds will be light and diurnally
driven.
isold weak -tsra will be possible this afternoon at evening at all 3
taf sites...but probability is low that they will occur. the best
chance of any precip will be over KCOS.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LUKINBEAL/MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
401 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Forecast models are consistent and add confidence for forecast
details. The upper low over Washington state will sink into
northern California on Friday. Northwest flow aloft this evening
backs to southwest on Friday with the strongest gradient over
Utah. Afternoon wind gusts of around 45 mph are expected so a Wind
Advisory has been issued for SE Utah and far NW Colorado. These
stronger wind gusts should diminish in the valleys early Friday
evening though exposed higher terrain should have gusty winds
through the night. There is enough residual moisture to set off
late- day, mainly- mountain convection. Associated virga or light
showers could produce locally stronger winds.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Saturday, the low works into eastern Oregon stretched across the
western Great Basin. Southwest gradient winds will increase a few
mph, but cloud cover may inhibit vertical mixing and valley wind
gusts somewhat.
Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring
increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern
mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a
storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new
week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft
MSL.
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Most of the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will end
by 03z. some turbulence is expected to develop overnight and
southwest winds aloft strengthen. Gusty southwest winds will begin
to mix into TAF sites around 18z Saturday. Afternoon gusts of 45
mph are possible mainly at KCNY KTEX with gusts to 30 to 40 mph
elsewhere. Isolated afternoon showers and virga threaten locally
very strong wind gusts.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ001.
UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JOE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1232 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016
A transitory ridge will move across the area today. This will
help remove a bit of the moisture that has been over the forecast
area and suppress s some of the convective development this
afternoon and evening. The next big pacific storm will move down
the west coast from the pacnw to northern ca tonight and friday.
The ridgeline will move east of the area friday and that will
allow increase southerly surface winds ahead of the large trough
along the west coast. Have increased wind speeds and gusts across
the board friday. The pacific storm will slowly move inland friday
but the forecast area should remain under a dry slot. The big
story will be increasing south to southwest winds friday
afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed May 18 2016
A large upper level low will sink south and then stall in the
vicinity of the interior Pac NW states by Saturday. We will be in
the tighter gradient region between this low and the ridge of high
pressure over the central U.S. Saturday and Sunday which will
bring a breezy to windy and warm pattern to our region. Cannot
rule out isolated diurnal convection over the higher terrain
Friday and Saturday...but should have a little better coverage on
Sunday as a minor upper level trough moves through. As the upper
level low weakens and moves north, individual shortwave troughs
caught in the broad long wave trough over the western U.s. will
begin to cross the region every 36 hours or so next week.
Precipitable water values will be about half what they are
now...so expect only isolated mainly diurnally driven convection
over the mountains each day. After Saturday, as the region comes
under the trough aloft, temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
isold shower and a few storms will fire this afternoon though
coverage is expected to be less than seen yesterday. convection
will form over mountains so main concerns aviation-wise will be
mtn tafs including kase...kege...and ktex where vcts looks good
for now. kmtj and kdro may see some activity but confidence not
high enough to include in taf attm. most precip will end by 03z
with next concern being gusty winds tomorrow starting after 17z or
so. gusts of 30 to even 40 mph are possible at times. the
strongest winds are expected over kcny with lesser winds
elsewhere.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1112 AM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Some low stratus and fog has developed over portions of El Paso
county this morning. The San Luis Valley also has some low clouds
this morning. The HRRR and nam are suggesting the stratus should
dissipate by 15-16z this morning.
An upr trof wl be to the east ovr KS and TX today, with a shortwave
ridge ovr CO through tonight. There wl be enough mstr ovr the area
today for isold to sct showers and tstms to develop ovr the mtns and
high valleys, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Could
even see a couple showers/storms move out ovr the I-25 corridor.
high temps today wl be warmer than yesterday and should generally be
just a few degrees below average.
by late tonight most if not all pcpn should end. however, toward
morning the nam is suggesting an area of pcpn could move into the
CONTDVD, but the gfs is dry. it looks like low stratus could
develop tonight ovr portions of the sern plains, mainly from KLHX
and eastward, although it also looks like portions of El Paso county
may also see the low clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Friday-Saturday...A warmer and drier weather pattern continues to be
in the offing as upper level ridging builds into the region on
Friday, with southwest flow aloft increasing into Saturday ahead of
EPAC energy digging across the West Coast and into the Great Basin.
Enough residual moisture will be in place to support isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms both days, mainly
over and near the higher terrain. Storms that do develop look to be
higher based, with lightning and gusty winds the main threats.
Latest models are indicating fairly deep mixing across the area on
Saturday supporting breezy south to southwest winds into the
afternoon and early evening and pushing dry line well into Kansas.
Warming aloft continues across the area with temperatures warming
back to at and above seasonal levels with highs in the 70s and 80s
across the lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher
terrain. Breezy winds...warm temps and low afternoon humidities to
lead to increased fire danger on Saturday, however, with green up
well underway, do not think fuels across the area will be critical.
Saturday night-Monday...Moderate to strong southwest flow aloft
progged across the region as the Great Basin system lifts out across
the northern Rockies on Monday. Pattern keeps the area warm and
breezy, with isolated to scattered storms possible over and near the
higher terrain. There could be a few stronger storms across the far
southeast plains Saturday night and Sunday, with the dry line
possibly retrograding back near the Kansas border. Should see
temperatures remaining AOA seasonal averages through the period.
Tuesday-Wednesday...Latest model guidance is indicating moderate
west to southwest flow aloft across the region, with occasional
embedded short waves translating across the Rockies. This pattern
would lead to generally warm and breezy conditions across the area,
with chances of showers and storms associated with the passing
waves, mainly over and near the higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1059 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016
VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24h at all 3 taf
sites...KPUB...KALS and KCOS. Surface winds will be light and
diurnally driven. Brief -TSRA will be possible at the 3 taf sites
this afternoon and early evening...with locally gusty winds
possible with the -TSRA.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
342 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Windy and mild continue through these periods. This early
afternoon, southwest winds have been in the 30s to low 40s mph in
the western valleys, 40s to mid 50s in the western mountains.
These winds will be increasing over the next 36 hours as the upper
Low over northern California tracks slowly to the northeast. Gusty
winds are expected to continue and strengthen over high exposed
terrain tonight, even mixing into a few western valley locations.
Elsewhere valleys will have shallow inversions keeping overnight
low temperatures mild. MSLP gradient and 700-600MB winds increase
on Saturday. Therefore have issued another Wind Advisory for
eastern Utah including the mountains, and spreading a bit further
into far western Colorado. Another mild night expected Saturday
night as a cold front works across Utah.
Afternoon convection has been minimal and less than forecasted.
Overall this spring the models seem to be overproducing QPF.
Therefore have lowered POPs for the weekend.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. The cold front
works through the forecast area, strongest forcing across the
north. But the moisture will have eroded from PW values around 0.7
inch now to around 0.3 on Sunday. So showers will be minimal. An
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave still timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
VFR conditions dominate. Isolated mainly mountain thunderstorms
should be circumnavigable. moderate to strong turbulence is the
main threat as southwest winds will gust to 30-40 mph this
afternoon and again on Saturday. Tonight strong southwest winds
will continue over higher terrain mixing into western TAF sites at
times, including KCNY KTEX. Low level wind shear will be possible
at all TAF sites through 18z Saturday when the inversions are
expected to break.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JOE
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
337 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Not many adjustments required from earlier forecast reasoning with
primary near/short term meteorological concerns for the forecast
district being isolated pops, areas of low clouds and fog developing
over eastern sections later tonight, temperatures and gusty winds at
times.
Forecast district currently graced by variable clouds, locally gusty
winds, isolated shower and thunderstorm activity, primarily to the
north of the CWFA and generally above seasonal late May afternoon
temperatures.
Recent real-time data, PV analysis, forecast model soundings and
computer simulations indicate that relatively dry southwesterly
upper flow will prevail over the forecast district during the next
24 hours, however enough atmospheric moisture interacting with the
daily orographic heating cycle and a passing weak upper disturbance
will be capable of generating isolated showers and
thunderstorms(some potentially strong at times), into this evening,
primarily over eastern portions of the CWFA. In addition, have
depicted areas of low clouds and fog developing later tonight over
primarily eastern portions of the forecast district.
Gusty winds are also anticipated at times during the next 24 hours,
however per recent direction of area land agencies, will refrain
from any fire weather highlights as fuels are not favorable.
Finally, above seasonal temperatures are expected to continue over
the majority of the forecast district during the next 24 hours.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
A generally dry and warm period is anticipated during this long term
forecast period as the region will be under modest southwesterly
flow aloft. I anticipate the dryline will remain primarily to the
east of the forecast area...so the probability of severe convection
is low. the only exception to this may be late in the period as the
guidance shows a stronger disturbance moving across the region
during the Thursday/Friday time frame.
for later this weekend (Sunday)...it will be quite warm...dry and
windy across the region. Meteorological conditions will be favorable
for extreme fire behavior...however after talking to the folks at
Pueblo Dispatch...fuels are not conducive to rapid spread.
Likewise...no fire weather hilites will be issued. Max temps both
days will be well into the 80s across the Plains...and a 90 or
two is not out of the question. Southwest wind gusts to 25 to 35
mph are likely.
a cold front will cross the area Sunday night...and a bit cooler
weather is expected for Monday. However...it will remain quite dry
in the low levels after fropa...and very little if any thunder is
expected over the region Monday afternoon. If thunder does
occur...it will likely be in the Pikes Peak region and central mtn
areas.
Dry southwesterly flow at lower levels will likely develop once
again Tuesday and last into Thursday. By late in the week...the
stronger disturbance discussed above will move across the region and
this may back the llvl winds enough to bring llvl moisture into the
region which may allow for thunderstorms over the plains late Thu
afternoon and possibly Fri afternoon. This disturbance late in the
week will also bring a better chance of tsra to the mtns.
/Hodanish
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Isolated later afternoon into evening showers and thunderstorms will
be possible over sections of the district...primarily near the KCOS
taf site into this evening. However, still anticipate that
southwesterly upper flow will allow VFR conditions to continue over
the KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites into Saturday. In addition, have
also depicted areas of low clouds/fog over some eastern locations
from later tonight into early Saturday morning, with low
clouds/areas of fog possibly encroaching the KCOS and KPUB taf sites
during this time-frame...WFO PUB will monitor closely.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...77
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1130 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
The shortrange models appear on track in positioning the low
center along the Oregon coast this morning. Satellite images show
the circulation center over extreme sw Oregon and sliding
gradually east. The jet curved cyclonically from the San
Francisco area over central Nevada then turn more to the north
over western Montana. The tightest gradient was edging toward
western Utah. This wind band will move east today and cause winds
to increase over eastern UT and western CO this afternoon and
evening. The gradient should be tight enough to bring wind
advisory level wind speeds to the lower elevations of SE UT and
extreme NW CO. Gusts to 45 mph are probable. The only factor that
could hamper this will be the band of mid and high cloud the will
advect over the area.
The main wind band is projected over the forecast area Saturday so
believe windy conditions will continue. Cloud cover should thicken
as well so have held off and any wind highlights at this time as
the cloud cover may interfere with vertical mixing.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring
increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern
mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a
storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new
week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft
MSL.
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
AREA BUT TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS REACHING 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH 02Z OR SO.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW WITH WINDS POSSIBLY
GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ001.
UT...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1126 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 451 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Increased coverage of stratus and fog across Pueblo county through
the early morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicating
generally weak west to southwest flow aloft across the state with
upper level ridging building across the Rockies ahead of broad upper
trough digging across the West Coast at this time. Water vapor
imagery is also indicating mid and upper level moisture streaming
out ahead of this system across the Desert Southwest and into the
Great Basin. At the surface, a deepening LHX low and associated east
to southeast low level winds across the far southeast plains is
keeping dew pts in the upper 30s to upper 40s, and has helped to
develop stratus from eastern portions of El Paso county through
portions of Otero, Kiowa, Prowers and Baca counties at this time.
Today and Tonight...
No big changes to ongoing forecast, with slowly increasing southwest
flow aloft expected across the region as the West Coast upper trough
continues to dig into the Desert Southwest, pushing the upper ridge
across the far eastern plains and into western Kansas tonight.
Warming aloft, denoted by WAA clouds spreading into western CO at
this time, will continue to warm temperatures back to at and above
seasonal levels today, with highs in the 70s and 80s across the
lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain.
Models continue to indicate enough moisture in place to support
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area this
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected across the
central mountains into the Pikes Peak region. Surface low pressure
to persist across the plains today, with breezy east to southeast
winds helping to advect low level moisture across the far southeast
plains into northeastern CO through the afternoon...where latest SPC
outlook has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today. With the
upper ridge building across the southeast plains, convection looks
to be capped today, however, storms which can develop across the
Pikes Peak region could quickly strengthen as they move north and
east off the Palmer Dvd and into northeastern CO. Convection to
diminish and end after sun set with clearing skies overnight, save
the far se plains, where could see some stratus develop once again
overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Western U.S. upper low drifts slowly back northward on
Saturday, keeping deep southwest flow in place across all of
southern Colorado. Moisture across the region looks very limited,
with just some weak, high-based convection possible over the
central mountains. Over the plains, dryline will be lurking near
the KS border, but most model guidance keeps deeper
moisture/instability just east of the state line, and will go with
a dry forecast over the plains for now. Deep mixing Saturday will
lead to very warm and breezy conditions area-wide, and a few
locations on the plains will approach 90f by late afternoon. Upper
low tracks northeastward into Canada Sunday, with southwest flow
continuing across Colorado. Dryline appears to mix well east of
the KS border in the afternoon, and will keep pops out of the
plains once again as dry air mass spreads eastward from the
mountains. Mid levels do moisten slightly by afternoon over the
higher terrain, and may be just enough instability for some high
based -tsra, though with dry surface layer, precip will likely be
very light. All of the area will see another day of very warm and
windy conditions, though max temps may drift downward a couple
degf as heights fall slightly by Sat evening.
Weak cold front drops south through the plains Sunday evening,
though any upslope surge should be short-lived as new energy drops
into the western U.S. upper trough, with southwest flow reforming
a lee surface low over ern CO during the day Mon. Moisture remains
limited Mon, with again only a few high based mountain storms
possible. Pattern persists Tue/Wed as wrn trough continues to
deepen, keeping sw flow aloft in place with only limited moisture
across the area. Models hint at occasional shallow moisture
sloshing into ern CO both Tue and Wed mornings, before mixing
quickly eastward as dry sw flow reaches the surface later in the
day. Will keep mainly just some low pops in place over the
mountains for both Tue and Wed afternoons, though again precip
coverage/intensity will be rather sparse/weak. Deeper moisture
makes a better push into southern CO Thu/Fri as energy from the
western trough finally begins to push eastward and gives cold
front a stronger shove southward. Still some timing differences
among various models, but main message is a gradual increase in
precip chances both days as moisture and lift both ramp up. Max
temps Mon-Wed will stay rather warm, then drift downward slowly
late week as cooler air filters south.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE KCOS TAF SITE...ANTICIPATE THAT SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL
ALLOW GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
422 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicating
generally weak west to southwest flow aloft across the state with
upper level ridging building across the Rockies ahead of broad upper
trough digging across the West Coast at this time. Water vapor
imagery is also indicating mid and upper level moisture streaming
out ahead of this system across the Desert Southwest and into the
Great Basin. At the surface, a deepening LHX low and associated east
to southeast low level winds across the far southeast plains is
keeping dew pts in the upper 30s to upper 40s, and has helped to
develop stratus from eastern portions of El Paso county through
portions of Otero, Kiowa, Prowers and Baca counties at this time.
Today and Tonight...
No big changes to ongoing forecast, with slowly increasing southwest
flow aloft expected across the region as the West Coast upper trough
continues to dig into the Desert Southwest, pushing the upper ridge
across the far eastern plains and into western Kansas tonight.
Warming aloft, denoted by WAA clouds spreading into western CO at
this time, will continue to warm temperatures back to at and above
seasonal levels today, with highs in the 70s and 80s across the
lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain.
Models continue to indicate enough moisture in place to support
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area this
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected across the
central mountains into the Pikes Peak region. Surface low pressure
to persist across the plains today, with breezy east to southeast
winds helping to advect low level moisture across the far southeast
plains into northeastern CO through the afternoon...where latest SPC
outlook has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today. With the
upper ridge building across the southeast plains, convection looks
to be capped today, however, storms which can develop across the
Pikes Peak region could quickly strengthen as they move north and
east off the Palmer Dvd and into northeastern CO. Convection to
diminish and end after sun set with clearing skies overnight, save
the far se plains, where could see some stratus develop once again
overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
Western U.S. upper low drifts slowly back northward on
Saturday, keeping deep southwest flow in place across all of
southern Colorado. Moisture across the region looks very limited,
with just some weak, high-based convection possible over the
central mountains. Over the plains, dryline will be lurking near
the KS border, but most model guidance keeps deeper
moisture/instability just east of the state line, and will go with
a dry forecast over the plains for now. Deep mixing Saturday will
lead to very warm and breezy conditions area-wide, and a few
locations on the plains will approach 90f by late afternoon. Upper
low tracks northeastward into Canada Sunday, with southwest flow
continuing across Colorado. Dryline appears to mix well east of
the KS border in the afternoon, and will keep pops out of the
plains once again as dry air mass spreads eastward from the
mountains. Mid levels do moisten slightly by afternoon over the
higher terrain, and may be just enough instability for some high
based -tsra, though with dry surface layer, precip will likely be
very light. All of the area will see another day of very warm and
windy conditions, though max temps may drift downward a couple
degf as heights fall slightly by Sat evening.
Weak cold front drops south through the plains Sunday evening,
though any upslope surge should be short-lived as new energy drops
into the western U.S. upper trough, with southwest flow reforming
a lee surface low over ern CO during the day Mon. Moisture remains
limited Mon, with again only a few high based mountain storms
possible. Pattern persists Tue/Wed as wrn trough continues to
deepen, keeping sw flow aloft in place with only limited moisture
across the area. Models hint at occasional shallow moisture
sloshing into ern CO both Tue and Wed mornings, before mixing
quickly eastward as dry sw flow reaches the surface later in the
day. Will keep mainly just some low pops in place over the
mountains for both Tue and Wed afternoons, though again precip
coverage/intensity will be rather sparse/weak. Deeper moisture
makes a better push into southern CO Thu/Fri as energy from the
western trough finally begins to push eastward and gives cold
front a stronger shove southward. Still some timing differences
among various models, but main message is a gradual increase in
precip chances both days as moisture and lift both ramp up. Max
temps Mon-Wed will stay rather warm, then drift downward slowly
late week as cooler air filters south.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016
COS, PUB and ALS should remain VFR for the next 24 hours. There is
some patchy stratus across eastern El Paso county this morning,
though this should not make into COS terminal. There also remains
a low probability of a few afternoon and evening storms over the
eastern mts and Palmer Divide, but do not expect them to impact
the VC COS. Winds will be a bit stronger today with surface winds
10-20 KTS generally from the SE over the plains and S-SW over the
San Luis Valley. Convection to diminish after sun set with
clearing skies overnight.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1101 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Forecast models are consistent and add confidence for forecast
details. The upper low over Washington state will sink into
northern California on Friday. Northwest flow aloft this evening
backs to southwest on Friday with the strongest gradient over
Utah. Afternoon wind gusts of around 45 mph are expected so a Wind
Advisory has been issued for SE Utah and far NW Colorado. These
stronger wind gusts should diminish in the valleys early Friday
evening though exposed higher terrain should have gusty winds
through the night. There is enough residual moisture to set off
late- day, mainly- mountain convection. Associated virga or light
showers could produce locally stronger winds.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Saturday, the low works into eastern Oregon stretched across the
western Great Basin. Southwest gradient winds will increase a few
mph, but cloud cover may inhibit vertical mixing and valley wind
gusts somewhat.
Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring
increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern
mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a
storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new
week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft
MSL.
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1101 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Isolated showers over the higher terrain will continue here and
there through midmorning, but pose little threat to airport
operations. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will increase in
coverage and intensity over the higher terrain from late morning
into the evening in response to daytime warming. Meanwhile, winds
will become strong as a storm system moves southward into northern
California and northwest Nevada, especially over southeast Utah
and northwest Colorado. Wind gusts in excess of 45 MPH are likely
in the areas just mentioned, but will decrease after 8 PM MDT.
Outflow winds from thunderstorms could top 50 MPH.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ001.
UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...NL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1051 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken over the next
few hours as nocturnal processes become dominant. Decided to cut
down pops over the Rampart, Wet, and Sangre de Cristo Mtns as
shower activity continues to wane. Latest model guidance continues
to suggest shower activity moving into the Central Mtns from the
west during the early morning hours...thus decided to rise pops
slightly over the Central and northern San Juan Mtns. Otherwise,
the current forecast remains on track. Lukinbeal/Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Currently...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring
across the region at 2 pm. the best coverage of storms were over the
Wet and Sangre mtns. a few showers/-tsra were noted over the I-25
corridor and san luis valley.
upper low was located over the sc KS area and flow aloft was from
the N-NW. This flow was allowing for a few showers to move onto the
plains.
Temps across the region were seasonable...with readings in the 50s
to L70s across the Plains...and 50s and 60s in the valleys.
Rest of today into tonight...
Scattered showers will continue over the higher trrn with more isold
activity expected over the valleys and the plains adjacent to the
mtns into the early evening hours. Once the sun sets...showers will
come to an end. The only exception will be the Central mtns were
some showers may approach this region towards sunrise as a weak
disturbance moves across the central part of the State.
Temps tonight will be seasonable with lows in the 40s across the
plains and 30s in the valleys. /Hodanish
Tomorrow...
Drier sw flow aloft moves over the fcst region. Although we will see
some isold tsra over the mtns and possibly the plains...I expect we
will see less coverage than what we have seen today. Temperatures
will continue to warm...and expect another 10 degree warming...with
highs in the mid 80s across a good part of the Plains. Overall best
chance of precip tomorrow will likely be the c mtn area.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Friday night through Sunday...Long range models agree on placing an
upper low pressure system over the West Coast Fri night and Sat,
producing brisk SW flow aloft across the 4 Corners as well as very
warm temps for the forecast area. Save for isolated convection over
the mts, and mainly the central mts, each aftn and eve, conditions
will remain dry for much of the CWA. Look for max temps in the upper
60s to mid 70s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to upper 80s for
the plains. The upper low migrates to the north and slides across
the Northern Rockies on Sun, pushing a cold front down into eastern
CO Sun night.
Monday through Thursday...As the one upper feature passes to the
northeast, another upper trough of low pressure develops over
Northern CA and the Pacific NW. This will once again produce
southwest flow aloft across the 4 Corners. Multiple disturbances in
the upper flow will cross the state, serving as the trigger for
scattered convection over the mts, and isolated activity for the
plains, for Tue and Wed. Therefore, look for isolated mt convection
on Mon with aftn temps about 10 degrees cooler than on Sun.
Convective activity increases for all areas Tue and Wed, with max
temps in the 70s to around 80 F for the plains, and in the 60s for
the high valleys. The upper low to the west finally starts to make a
move towards CO on Thu, which will likely mean cooler temps and a
higher probability for some showers and storms. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1044 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
TAF sites should remain VFR for the next 24-30 hours. There is a
low probability of a few afternoon and evening storms over the
Palmer Divide...but they should not impact the VC KCOS. Winds
will be a bit stronger tomorrow...with surface winds generally
from the SE over the plains and S-SW over the San Luis Valley.
Rose
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LUKINBEAL/MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
853 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken over the next
few hours as noctoral processes become dominate. Decided to cut
down pops over the Rampart, Wet, and Sangre de Cristo Mtns as
shower activity continues to wane. Latest model guidance continues
to suggest shower activity moving into the Central Mtns from the
west during the early morning hours...thus decided to rise pops
slightly over the Central and northern San Juan Mtns. Otherwise,
the current forecast remains on track. Lukinbeal/Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Currently...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring
across the region at 2 pm. the best coverage of storms were over the
Wet and Sangre mtns. a few showers/-tsra were noted over the I-25
corridor and san luis valley.
upper low was located over the sc KS area and flow aloft was from
the N-NW. This flow was allowing for a few showers to move onto the
plains.
Temps across the region were seasonable...with readings in the 50s
to L70s across the Plains...and 50s and 60s in the valleys.
Rest of today into tonight...
Scattered showers will continue over the higher trrn with more isold
activity expected over the valleys and the plains adjacent to the
mtns into the early evening hours. Once the sun sets...showers will
come to an end. The only exception will be the Central mtns were
some showers may approach this region towards sunrise as a weak
disturbance moves across the central part of the State.
Temps tonight will be seasonable with lows in the 40s across the
plains and 30s in the valleys. /Hodanish
Tomorrow...
Drier sw flow aloft moves over the fcst region. Although we will see
some isold tsra over the mtns and possibly the plains...I expect we
will see less coverage than what we have seen today. Temperatures
will continue to warm...and expect another 10 degree warming...with
highs in the mid 80s across a good part of the Plains. Overall best
chance of precip tomorrow will likely be the c mtn area.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Friday night through Sunday...Long range models agree on placing an
upper low pressure system over the West Coast Fri night and Sat,
producing brisk SW flow aloft across the 4 Corners as well as very
warm temps for the forecast area. Save for isolated convection over
the mts, and mainly the central mts, each aftn and eve, conditions
will remain dry for much of the CWA. Look for max temps in the upper
60s to mid 70s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to upper 80s for
the plains. The upper low migrates to the north and slides across
the Northern Rockies on Sun, pushing a cold front down into eastern
CO Sun night.
Monday through Thursday...As the one upper feature passes to the
northeast, another upper trough of low pressure develops over
Northern CA and the Pacific NW. This will once again produce
southwest flow aloft across the 4 Corners. Multiple disturbances in
the upper flow will cross the state, serving as the trigger for
scattered convection over the mts, and isolated activity for the
plains, for Tue and Wed. Therefore, look for isolated mt convection
on Mon with aftn temps about 10 degrees cooler than on Sun.
Convective activity increases for all areas Tue and Wed, with max
temps in the 70s to around 80 F for the plains, and in the 60s for
the high valleys. The upper low to the west finally starts to make a
move towards CO on Thu, which will likely mean cooler temps and a
higher probability for some showers and storms. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
VFR conditions anticipated during the next 24h at all 3 taf
sites...kpub...kcos and kals. winds will be light and diurnally
driven.
isold weak -tsra will be possible this afternoon at evening at all 3
taf sites...but probability is low that they will occur. the best
chance of any precip will be over KCOS.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LUKINBEAL/MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
401 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Forecast models are consistent and add confidence for forecast
details. The upper low over Washington state will sink into
northern California on Friday. Northwest flow aloft this evening
backs to southwest on Friday with the strongest gradient over
Utah. Afternoon wind gusts of around 45 mph are expected so a Wind
Advisory has been issued for SE Utah and far NW Colorado. These
stronger wind gusts should diminish in the valleys early Friday
evening though exposed higher terrain should have gusty winds
through the night. There is enough residual moisture to set off
late- day, mainly- mountain convection. Associated virga or light
showers could produce locally stronger winds.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Saturday, the low works into eastern Oregon stretched across the
western Great Basin. Southwest gradient winds will increase a few
mph, but cloud cover may inhibit vertical mixing and valley wind
gusts somewhat.
Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring
increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern
mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a
storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new
week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft
MSL.
A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Most of the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will end
by 03z. some turbulence is expected to develop overnight and
southwest winds aloft strengthen. Gusty southwest winds will begin
to mix into TAF sites around 18z Saturday. Afternoon gusts of 45
mph are possible mainly at KCNY KTEX with gusts to 30 to 40 mph
elsewhere. Isolated afternoon showers and virga threaten locally
very strong wind gusts.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ001.
UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JOE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1232 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016
A transitory ridge will move across the area today. This will
help remove a bit of the moisture that has been over the forecast
area and suppress s some of the convective development this
afternoon and evening. The next big pacific storm will move down
the west coast from the pacnw to northern ca tonight and friday.
The ridgeline will move east of the area friday and that will
allow increase southerly surface winds ahead of the large trough
along the west coast. Have increased wind speeds and gusts across
the board friday. The pacific storm will slowly move inland friday
but the forecast area should remain under a dry slot. The big
story will be increasing south to southwest winds friday
afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed May 18 2016
A large upper level low will sink south and then stall in the
vicinity of the interior Pac NW states by Saturday. We will be in
the tighter gradient region between this low and the ridge of high
pressure over the central U.S. Saturday and Sunday which will
bring a breezy to windy and warm pattern to our region. Cannot
rule out isolated diurnal convection over the higher terrain
Friday and Saturday...but should have a little better coverage on
Sunday as a minor upper level trough moves through. As the upper
level low weakens and moves north, individual shortwave troughs
caught in the broad long wave trough over the western U.s. will
begin to cross the region every 36 hours or so next week.
Precipitable water values will be about half what they are
now...so expect only isolated mainly diurnally driven convection
over the mountains each day. After Saturday, as the region comes
under the trough aloft, temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016
isold shower and a few storms will fire this afternoon though
coverage is expected to be less than seen yesterday. convection
will form over mountains so main concerns aviation-wise will be
mtn tafs including kase...kege...and ktex where vcts looks good
for now. kmtj and kdro may see some activity but confidence not
high enough to include in taf attm. most precip will end by 03z
with next concern being gusty winds tomorrow starting after 17z or
so. gusts of 30 to even 40 mph are possible at times. the
strongest winds are expected over kcny with lesser winds
elsewhere.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1112 AM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Some low stratus and fog has developed over portions of El Paso
county this morning. The San Luis Valley also has some low clouds
this morning. The HRRR and nam are suggesting the stratus should
dissipate by 15-16z this morning.
An upr trof wl be to the east ovr KS and TX today, with a shortwave
ridge ovr CO through tonight. There wl be enough mstr ovr the area
today for isold to sct showers and tstms to develop ovr the mtns and
high valleys, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Could
even see a couple showers/storms move out ovr the I-25 corridor.
high temps today wl be warmer than yesterday and should generally be
just a few degrees below average.
by late tonight most if not all pcpn should end. however, toward
morning the nam is suggesting an area of pcpn could move into the
CONTDVD, but the gfs is dry. it looks like low stratus could
develop tonight ovr portions of the sern plains, mainly from KLHX
and eastward, although it also looks like portions of El Paso county
may also see the low clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016
Friday-Saturday...A warmer and drier weather pattern continues to be
in the offing as upper level ridging builds into the region on
Friday, with southwest flow aloft increasing into Saturday ahead of
EPAC energy digging across the West Coast and into the Great Basin.
Enough residual moisture will be in place to support isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms both days, mainly
over and near the higher terrain. Storms that do develop look to be
higher based, with lightning and gusty winds the main threats.
Latest models are indicating fairly deep mixing across the area on
Saturday supporting breezy south to southwest winds into the
afternoon and early evening and pushing dry line well into Kansas.
Warming aloft continues across the area with temperatures warming
back to at and above seasonal levels with highs in the 70s and 80s
across the lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher
terrain. Breezy winds...warm temps and low afternoon humidities to
lead to increased fire danger on Saturday, however, with green up
well underway, do not think fuels across the area will be critical.
Saturday night-Monday...Moderate to strong southwest flow aloft
progged across the region as the Great Basin system lifts out across
the northern Rockies on Monday. Pattern keeps the area warm and
breezy, with isolated to scattered storms possible over and near the
higher terrain. There could be a few stronger storms across the far
southeast plains Saturday night and Sunday, with the dry line
possibly retrograding back near the Kansas border. Should see
temperatures remaining AOA seasonal averages through the period.
Tuesday-Wednesday...Latest model guidance is indicating moderate
west to southwest flow aloft across the region, with occasional
embedded short waves translating across the Rockies. This pattern
would lead to generally warm and breezy conditions across the area,
with chances of showers and storms associated with the passing
waves, mainly over and near the higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1059 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016
VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24h at all 3 taf
sites...KPUB...KALS and KCOS. Surface winds will be light and
diurnally driven. Brief -TSRA will be possible at the 3 taf sites
this afternoon and early evening...with locally gusty winds
possible with the -TSRA.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH