Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/18/16

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1041 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes to the south overnight while a weak cold
front shifts through area. A weak surface trough moves across the
region on Thursday. Otherwise, high pressure remains in control
through the end of the week. An unsettled weather pattern sets up
this weekend and may continue into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Only light precipitation possible across coastal zones this
evening. Will keep pops capped at slight chance as low pres passes
well south of Long Island.

Lows tonight will be around 50 in/around NYC, and in the low to
mid 40s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave approaches from the west, and may supply enough lift for
isolated showers Wednesday morning from around the city and points
west. Otherwise, models in agreement of 700mb moisture keeping us
mostly cloudy, however there is a chance that skies become partly
sunny. A better chance of this would be across the northern zones.
High temps probably close to those of today, assuming more
clouds than sun and a similar mixing profile, mostly 65-70.

A shortwave approaches late at night Wednesday, but weak high
pressure remains in place. This likely keeps us dry, and low temps
will be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Trends in the model guidance have slowed the passage of a
positively tilted 500 hPa shortwave by about 12 hours from early
Thursday to late Thursday since yesterdays model runs. Surface
high pressure will build into the area from the Great Lakes on
Thursday. Due to the shortwave moving across in the afternoon and
evening, a weak surface trough will likely set up. Low levels look
rather dry on model soundings, but there may be just enough
instability for a few showers. Have bumped up pops to slight
chance for now. It would not be out of the realm of possibilities
that a few stronger showers contain small hail and lightning with
a cold pocket aloft, but have left out of the grids with this
forecast package. The shortwave passes to the east Thursday night
with ridging aloft and high pressure in control on Friday.
Seasonable temperatures forecast on Thursday with temperatures a
few degrees above normal on Friday.

Models and ensembles are coming into better agreement with the
large scale pattern, an unsettled one for our area, for the
upcoming weekend. A highly amplified pattern across the CONUS with
a deep trough across the west, a deep ridge across the central
states, and an amplifying trough across the east. Low pressure
develops across the southeast on Saturday and will move off the
middle atlantic coast Saturday evening. The trough looks to be
positively tilted, so the low should pass off to the south and
east of the area. However, the northern extent of the
precipitation shield is progged to affect at least the southern
half of the area late Saturday into Saturday night. Have trended
pops upward from previous forecast but no greater than high chance
across the southern half of the area late Saturday/Saturday night.
This is where the biggest uncertainty lies within the latest
models, how close to the coast the low will get will ultimately
determine the extent of the rainfall across our area.

The low moves offshore Sunday morning, but the upper trough will
linger across the east coast. The trough is probably going to
cutoff from the main flow on Sunday with strong ridging on either
side of it. This cutoff low will then meander along the middle
atlantic into early next week with the possibility of another area
of low pressure sometime Monday into Tuesday. Cutoff lows can
cause havoc in the models with smaller scale features, so did not
want to sway too far from a model consensus forecast in the Sunday
through Tuesday period.

Temperatures may average near to slightly below average from this
weekend into early next week with the unsettled regime.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak low pressure tracks to the south of Long Island overnight.
High pressure then builds in from the west into Wednesday
evening, as another low tracks well to the south.

VFR through the TAF period.

Winds becoming light and variable throughout by 4-5z. Light NE
flow develops Wednesday morning, with seabreezes developing early
Wednesday afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
.Wednesday night...VFR with early evening seabreezes.
.Thursday-Thursday Night...Mainly VFR. Low chance of MVFR in
scattered afternoon/evening showers.
.Friday-Friday Night...VFR.
.Saturday-Sunday...MVFR or lower in rain and/or E-NE Winds
g20-30+ kt are possible; depending on the exact track and timing
of a coastal low.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient and lack of significant swell will
maintain sub-sca conditions over the local waters through
Saturday.

Seas on the ocean increase to SCA levels Saturday night into
Sunday as low pressure moves off the Middle Atlantic coast. Wind
gusts on the ocean may also approach 25 kt.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant rainfall expected through tonight. Dry weather is
expected Wednesday through Friday.

Rain is possible at any time from late Saturday through early next
week, but no hydrologic impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...Maloit
MARINE...MPS/JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS



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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
654 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will pass south of New England tonight but could graze
Nantucket and Martha`s Vineyard, perhaps even parts of Cape Cod.
Otherwise dry and mild weather will prevail through Wed. A weak
front may trigger scattered showers or even thunderstorms Thu. A
coastal low may bring wet weather late Sat into early next week as
it lingers offshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Updated 655 pm Tue...

Confluent flow across New England is keeping northern edge of
showers south of region as seen on regional radar loop. High-res
models (HRRR in particular) are struggling with subsidence over
region and trying to generate scattered showers across much of
southern New England. Based upon radar trends we will keep mention
of showers confined to Nantucket, the Vineyard, and parts of Cape
Cod (which also lines up with consensus of high-res models).

Clearing from NW to SE overnight combined with a dry airmass and
light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the 40s to
around 50 by daybreak Wed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Updated 307 pm Tue...

Tomorrow ... short wave ridging between departing system tonight and
next upper trough Thu provides dry weather here Wed. Partial
sunshine expected with sct-bkn cu/strato-cu along with some mid/high
clouds as well. However strong mid May sunshine and lack of a strong
subsidence inversion will promote a deep blyr with model sndgs
indicating mixing up to at least 800 mb! For this reason went a
little warmer than guid with expected highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. A few locations in the CT river valley may come close to
75.

This combined with light winds will provide very pleasant
conditions. However the light pressure gradient will promote
afternoon seabreezes resulting in high temps being realized around
midday and then falling back thru the 60s into the 50s near shore.

Tomorrow night ... dry weather as high pressure from the Great Lakes
builds into New England. Seasonably cool with lows in the 40s. Light
north to northeast winds. Again leaned toward the cooler mos
temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Updated 307 pm Tue...

Highlights...

 * Showers/isolated storms with small hail Thu.
 * Coastal low brings some rain late Sat into Sun, esp south.
 * Unsettled Mon/Tue but not a washout.

Details...

Still looking for signs of a prolonged warmup (ie Spring) but
nothing evident over next 7 days (but after that it`s looking more
promising). Medium range models and their ensembles are in
reasonable agreement with a pair of troughs crossing Northeast
Thu/Fri. Another deepening trough heading across Plains closes
off over Eastern Seaboard this weekend, and eventually opens up as
it reaches southern New England early next week.

Uncertainty with this forecast lies in coverage of showers/storms
Thu and Thu night, how far north rain extends from the coastal low
Sat night and Sun, then what effects we see from upper low early
next week.

* Thu into Fri...Moderate confidence.

Upper trough tries to close off as it rotates through New England
Thu. Cyclonic flow and cold air aloft (near -20C at 500mb) will
yield steep lapse rates (6-7C/km) which should be enough to
generate at least scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms,
initially in western New England during the afternoon before heading
to the coast toward evening. Activity should head offshore Thu
night.

Some showers/storms could produce small hail (given low freezing
levels) and gusty winds (35 mph based upon inverted-V soundings),
but overall threat of any severe weather is minimal.

Dry and milder weather returns Fri as weak ridge builds over
southern New England.

* Sat into Sun...Moderate confidence.

Main question deals with effects of coastal low, namely how far
north does rain shield extend? This is more reminiscent of a
wintertime scenario, with models varying in track and intensity.
12z GFS remains most aggressive and is farthest north with a track
near 40/70 while 12z ECMWF and UKMET favor more of a glancing
blow. Ensembles, including GEFS, support a more suppressed
solution so we are favoring more of a glancing blow as opposed to
widespread rainfall later Sat into Sun. Right now we are
forecasting northern edge of rain to reach about as far north as
Mass Pike, with most of rain focused closer to South Coast, Cape
Cod, and the Islands. At least we don`t have to worry about snow!

* Mon into Tue...Low confidence.

Nothing like dealing with a closed upper low in mid May. Models
bring it and its surface low up Eastern Seaboard and onto land
somewhere between NJ and southern New England. It`s going to be a
couple of days at least before models begin to have a better
handle on this system, so we will maintain clouds and some mention
of showers which is in line with the consensus of models. These
types of systems tend to produce bands of showers as opposed to
widespread heavy rain, but locally heavy rainfall is a
possibility.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Updated 655 pm Tue...

High confidence through Wed night.

VFR ceilings aoa 050 tonight, except around KACK/KMVY where a
period of MVFR ceilings are possible late tonight as showers graze
the islands. Dry conditions expected elsewhere.

VFR with light winds Wed and Wed night. Expect sea breezes to
develop near both coasts late morning Wed into the afternoon.

KBOS TAF...High confidence.

KBDL TAF...High confidence.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday...Moderate confidence. MVFR in scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms, some with small hail. Sea breezes near
coast by afternoon.

Friday...Moderate Confidence. VFR.

Saturday and Sunday...Moderate confidence. MVFR/IFR in rain and
fog Saturday night into Sunday, especially near South Coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Updated 655 pm Tue...

Tonight...SCA will be allowed to expire at 8 pm as winds will
subside within next hour or two. Showers expected on waters south
and east of Nantucket, but will not significantly restrict
visibility.

Wednesday ... light winds with weak high pressure overhead.
Afternoon sea breezes expected near shore. Spotty light rain
possible early over Southeast waters.

Wed night ... light northeast winds but dry weather and good vsby
expected.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Winds and seas should stay below SCA (25 kt winds and 5 ft seas)
Thu and Fri. Increasing NE winds expected Sat into Sun as coastal
low passes SE of New England, bringing rain and fog to waters. SCA
conditions most likely at this time.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ230>237-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/JWD
NEAR TERM...Nocera/JWD
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...Nocera/JWD
MARINE...Nocera/JWD




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
551 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes to the south tonight while a weak cold front
shifts through area. A weak surface trough moves across the region
on Thursday. Otherwise, high pressure remains in control through
the end of the week. An unsettled weather pattern sets up this
weekend and may continue into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Two surface features could bring light showers to the CWA tonight.
The first is weak low pressure which is bringing the northern
extent of its Precipitation shield near the southern zones. The
other feature is a weak cold front that will slowly shift through,
probably reaching the offshore waters by morning. Moisture
convergence and lift along the front along with some shortwave
lift could bring light showers to the northern zones in the
evening. Will cap pops at slight chance. Low temps are a blend of
MAV/MET mos.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave approaches from the west, and may supply enough lift for
isolated showers Wednesday morning from around the city and points
west. Otherwise, models in agreement of 700mb moisture keeping us
mostly cloudy, however there is a chance that skies become partly
sunny. A better chance of this would be across the northern zones.
High temps probably close to those of today, assuming more
clouds than sun and a similar mixing profile, mostly 65-70.

A shortwave approaches late at night Wednesday, but weak high
pressure remains in place. This likely keeps us dry, and low temps
will be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Trends in the model guidance have slowed the passage of a positively
tilted 500 hPa shortwave by about 12 hours from early Thursday to
late Thursday since yesterdays model runs. Surface high pressure
will build into the area from the Great Lakes on Thursday. Due to
the shortwave moving across in the afternoon and evening, a weak
surface trough will likely set up. Low levels look rather dry on
model soundings, but there may be just enough instability for a few
showers. Have bumped up pops to slight chance for now. It would not
be out of the realm of possibilities that a few stronger showers
contain small hail and lightning with a cold pocket aloft, but have
left out of the grids with this forecast package. The shortwave
passes to the east Thursday night with ridging aloft and high
pressure in control on Friday. Seasonable temperatures forecast on
Thursday with temperatures a few degrees above normal on Friday.

Models and ensembles are coming into better agreement with the large
scale pattern, an unsettled one for our area, for the upcoming
weekend. A highly amplified pattern across the CONUS with a deep
trough across the west, a deep ridge across the central states, and
an amplifying trough across the east. Low pressure develops across
the southeast on Saturday and will move off the middle atlantic
coast Saturday evening. The trough looks to be positively tilted, so
the low should pass off to the south and east of the area. However,
the northern extent of the precipitation shield is progged to
affect at least the southern half of the area late Saturday into
Saturday night. Have trended pops upward from previous forecast
but no greater than high chance across the southern half of the
area late Saturday/Saturday night. This is where the biggest
uncertainty lies within the latest models, how close to the coast
the low will get will ultimately determine the extent of the
rainfall across our area.

The low moves offshore Sunday morning, but the upper trough will
linger across the east coast. The trough is probably going to cutoff
from the main flow on Sunday with strong ridging on either side of
it. This cutoff low will then meander along the middle atlantic into
early next week with the possibility of another area of low pressure
sometime Monday into Tuesday. Cutoff lows can cause havoc in the
models with smaller scale features, so did not want to sway too far
from a model consensus forecast in the Sunday through Tuesday
period.

Temperatures may average near to slightly below average from this
weekend into early next week with the unsettled regime.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak low pressure tracks to the south of Long Island tonight. High
pressure builds in from the west into Wednesday afternoon...as
another low tracks well to the south.

VFR through the TAF period. Some light rain or sprinkles at
KJFK/KISP through 23z.

SW winds around 10 kt...except around 15 kt KISP...becoming light
and variable throughout this evening. Light ne flow develops
Wednesday morning...with seabreezes developing early Wednesday
afternoon.

 ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Wind direction could vary +/- 30 degrees from
TAF. Timing of onset of light and variable winds could be off +/-
1-2 hours. Occasional gusts to 15-20kt possible through 23z.

KLGA TAF Comments: Wind direction could vary +/- 30 degrees from
TAF. Timing of onset of light and variable winds could be off +/-
1-2 hours. Occasional gusts to 15-20kt possible through 23z.


KEWR TAF Comments: Wind direction could vary +/- 30 degrees from
TAF. Timing of onset of light and variable winds could be off +/-
1-2 hours. Occasional gusts to 15-20kt possible through 23z.


KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of onset of light and variable winds
could be off +/- 1-2 hours. Occasional gusts to 15-20kt possible
through 23z.

KHPN TAF Comments: Timing of onset of light and variable winds
could be off +/- 1-2 hours. Occasional gusts to 15-20kt possible
through 23z.

KISP TAF Comments: Timing of onset of light and variable winds
could be off +/- 1-2 hours. Occasional gusts to 15-20kt possible
through 23z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
.Wednesday afternoon/night...VFR, with afternoon/early evening
seabreezes.
.Thursday-Thursday Night...Mainly VFR. Low chance of MVFR in scattered
afternoon/evening showers.
.Friday-Friday Night...VFR.
.Saturday-Sunday...MVFR or lower possible in rain...depending on
the exact track and timing of a coastal low. E-NE Winds g20-30+
kt possible.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient and lack of significant swell will maintain
sub-sca conditions over the local waters through Saturday.

Seas on the ocean increase to SCA levels Saturday night into
Sunday as low pressure moves off the Middle Atlantic coast. Wind
gusts on the ocean may also approach 25 kt.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant rainfall expected through tonight. Dry weather is
expected Wednesday through Friday.

Rain is possible at any time from late Saturday through early next
week, but no hydrologic impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...Maloit/JMC
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
208 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A few sprinkles this evening otherwise mainly dry and mild weather
prevails. Weak high pressure provides dry weather and a warming
trend Wed through Fri. High pressure builds over the Northeast USA
Thursday and Friday. Coastal low pressure develops off the Mid
Atlantic coast this weekend and lingers there through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM Update ...

Clouds have thinned and temps have climbed into the upper 60s and
lower 70s...just a few degs warmer than previous forecast. Thus
have adjusted accordingly. This additional warming has allowed
blyr to deepen and result in more robust wind gusts up to 30 mph.

Clouds already beginning to fill back in and this trend will
continue into early this evening. Nearest rain drops over NJ and
much of this activity will track south of New England. However
after 21z/5pm and especially after 8 pm modest mid level FGEN via
convergence in the confluent zone will move across CT/RI and
possibly northward to the MA pike. If column can sufficently
moisten we may see a few very light rain bands or sprinkles across
this region 21z-03z. Otherwise much of the region remains dry and
mild into this evening. Earlier discussion below.

===================================================================

Jet induced Ci clouds continue to spill across S New England this
morning as upper lvl jet settles across the region from the N.
This jet feature also marks the movement of a shortwave rotating
around the stalled cutoff to the NE. This will lead to a mix of
sun and cloud through the morning, becoming more dense as
shra/convective activity continues to develop upstream across NY
state.

It will be these shra that will need to be monitored...as they may
begin to impact wrn portions of MA/CT this afternoon and evening.
Pops are a reflection of both global and meso-scale models.
Further E, the gradual downsloping Wly flow and increased early
day sunshine will lead to drier/well mixed lower lvls, limiting
rainfall risk through the day, although not without increasing
cloud cover.

Temperatures will reflect this difference in cloud cover/rain risk
and Wly downslope. Highs will approach the 70s across the E of MA
and RI...but remain mostly in the 60s further W.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

Tonight...

The secondary impact of increased moisture from the srn stream
will be a weak meso-low developing within a convective region in
the mid Atlantic and then shifting ENE and S of New England by the
early morning hours. How much this impacts Srn New England remains
a bit uncertain, as the initial soundings begin quite dry below H7
and take until mainly after 09Z to fully saturate. Meso-scale
models are much more robust, shifting the rain shield to the N
while global models continue to keep the bulk of precip to the
S...along with the remnant convection and LLJ.

Will continue to highlight chance pops lowering to slight chance
pops from s-n due to the uncertainty...in any case rainfall should
be light...generally less than a tenth of an inch except higher
on the Islands. For what it`s worth, ECENS/GEFS probabilities of
0.10 inches or more precip...are generally lower than 40 percent
across mainland Srn New England.

Min temps warmer than previous nights due to increased cloud
cover...mainly in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Tomorrow...
Rainfall risk dissipates through the morning outside of shra
as secondary shortwave rotates across New England from the north.
Drier air begins to spill across the region from the north. Cloud
cover to the north, combined with a weak pres gradient supporting
sea breezes will keep temps mainly in teh 60s...although a few low
70s are possible thanks to some afternoon clearing across mainly W
MA and CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Big Picture...

Two shortwaves move across New England late in the week. One moves
through on Thursday and the second on Friday.  A third shortwave
moves across from the Southwest USA late week and digs a closed low
along the East Coast over the weekend.  This closed low lingers
along the Mid Atlantic coast early next week.

Good agreement among mass fields in the long range models through
the weekend. Models diverge Sunday night and Monday bringing lower
confidence.

Upper contour heights are forecast above normal much of the period.
Expect temperatures at or a little above normal.

Details...

Wednesday night through Friday...

Surface High pressure moves across during this period with light
winds. The light flow will support sea breezes each day.

Upper shortwaves also move across on Thursday and Friday. Cross
sections show cloud-level humidity of 80-90 percent each afternoon
suggesting diurnal clouds with the daytime heating each day. The
shortwaves and lingering cold air aloft would also suggest some
potential for scattered showers from the clouds. But model QPF is
limited and mainly on Thursday. Could be scattered to isolated
showers Thursday with best chance over Western and Central MA.

The cold air aloft will allow daytime mixing to 800 mb. Temps at
that level support mid 60s to around 70 Thursday and low to mid 70s
on Friday. Dew points in the upper 30s and 40s suggest min temps in
the upper 30s to low 50s.

Saturday-Sunday-Monday...

High pressure departs Saturday morning but maintains dry air for
much of the day.

The Western shortwave mentioned earlier migrates east and generates
surface low pressure over the Ohio Valley. This moves to the Mid
Atlantic coast Saturday night. The GFS shows a low level south jet
of 50 knots preceding the surface low.  This will create low level
convergence that shifts east Saturday night.  The low level
convergence combined with briefly deep moisture would suggest a
chance of showers with the best chance over the South Coast and
islands.

The upper low lingers south of New England.  Not clear if it will be
close enough to maintain showers over our area on Sunday and Monday
or if those showers will shift to our south. High pressure builds
over Northern New England and will try to bring drier air south.  We
will maintain chance POPs along the South Coast Sunday but bring
clearing skies from north to south Sunday afternoon into Monday as
the high pressure builds in.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday Night/...

215 pm update ... high confidence with the exception on areal
coverage of very light rain/sprinkles this evening.

Thru 00z ... VFR conditions with just a low risk for a band of
very light rain or sprinkles across CT/RI northward to the MA
pike. Gusty west winds up to 25 kt will ease toward sunset.

After 00z ... VFR with any very light rain or sprinkles confined
to Southeast MA including Cape Cod and the islands. Winds become
light and from the northeast.

Wed ... VFR and light winds with afternoon seabreezes along the
coast.

Wed night ... VFR and light Northeast winds.

KBOS TAF ... High confidence on cigs and vsbys...lower confidence
on areal coverage of potential light rain/sprinkles this evening.

KBDL TAF ... High confidence on cigs and vsbys...lower confidence
on areal coverage of potential light rain/sprinkles this evening.

Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/...

Thursday... Moderate confidence. VFR. Areas of MVFR in scattered
showers. Sea breezes late morning and afternoon.

Friday... Moderate Confidence.  VFR.

Saturday and Sunday... Moderate confidence. Areas of MVFR in
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

1015 am update ... not much change from previous forecast. Dry
weather...good vsby and much less wind than yesterday. Earlier
discussion below.

====================================================================

Through tonight...High Confidence.
W-SW wind gusts remain below 25 kt most of the day today and night
tonight. Low risk for some light rainfall, especially across the S
waters overnight.

Wed...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather continues with winds shifting to the
NW.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Winds 20 knots or less and seas 3 feet or less through Saturday.
Winds Sunday Northeast increasing with 20 to 25 knot gusts on the
southern waters. Seas building 5 to 8 feet on the exposed waters
Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today ...

Not as windy today with WSW winds 15 to 20 mph inland but up to
30 mph across mainly eastern MA and RI. However sw winds off the
ocean will keep RH values up /50-60 percent/ along the South
Coast. Inland Min RH values 20 to 30 percent...but with a risk for
some showers in the afternoon.

Lower risk for showers on Wednesday...but overall RH values will
be higher. Mainly 35-45 percent with much weaker, northerly winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Worcester climate data for 5/16 was set to missing for several
fields due to an outage at the site.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/Doody
NEAR TERM...WTB/Nocera/Doody
SHORT TERM...Doody
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/Nocera/Doody
MARINE...WTB/Nocera/Doody
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...



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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
202 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
For today a weak disturbance will bring clouds and a chance of
showers to the area mainly south of Interstate 90. Mainly fair
but chilly weather will continue on Wednesday before a warming
trend later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1259 PM...forecast is still on track. Radar shows some
light rain showers over the southern tier of New York extending
east to the catskill Mountains. Radar loop shows the rain moving
pretty much due east. This fits well with forecast highest POPs
south of Interstate 90. Satellite pictures show only scattered
clouds across the Adirondacks and southern Vermont while most of
the rest of the forecast area is cloudy. There are breaks over
Litchfield County Connecticut.

Cold front with a series of low pressure systems along it was
dropping southeast from Lakes Ontario and Erie. Ahead of this
frontal boundary are clouds and scattered showers which will
mainly impact the southern half of the forecast area later today.
Areas to the north of the Greater Capital District can expect
continued partly to mostly sunny skies while areas from the
Greater Capital District south will be mostly cloudy to cloudy.
Raised high temperatures a few degrees for today as temps have
already gone past earlier forecast highs in some locations. Upper
50s in the terrain to around 70 in the valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight there will continue to be the threat of scattered
showers across the southeast third of the fa as a wave of low
pressure moves through the middle Atlantic region and off the
coast. Northern areas will remain dry tonight with partly cloudy
skies while the southeastern third of the fa will be mostly
cloudy. Lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Dry weather is expected from Wednesday through Thursday night
along with moderating temperatures as a large ridge of high
pressure builds east from the central Great Lakes Wednesday
morning to the Northeastern states by late Thursday night. Highs
on Wednesday will be in the mid 50s to upper 60s with lows
Wednesday night in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Highs on Thursday will
be in the upper 50s to upper 60s with lows Thursday night in the
upper 30s to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended forecast begins with fair and dry weather...but an
upper level trough over the East Coast may cut-off late in the
weekend into early next week with some unsettled weather returning.

Fri-Fri night...A surface anticyclone moves over NY and New England
with mostly sunny...fair..and dry weather. H850 temps rise to +7C to
+8C. High temps will be a little above normal with lower to mid 70s
in the valleys...and mid to upper 60s over the Mtns.  High pressure
moves offshore...as low pressure approaches from the TN Valley and
the Mid-Atlantic states.  Clouds increase mainly south and west of
the Mohawk Valley.  Lows will generally be in the 40s.

Saturday into Sunday...Much of NY and New England remain in a mid
and upper-level jet confluent zone.  The system to the south may
have enough synoptic lift and moisture advection for a few showers
to get into the SE Catskills...mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT late in
the day to open the weekend.  Meanwhile...a cold front will be
approaching from southeast Canada.  Most of the day should remain
dry according to the CMC guidance...latest ECMWF...and many GEF
members. The GFS is the most aggressive bringing moisture from the
south in. Mainly isolated showers are forecasted for locations south
and west of Albany during the afternoon. Highs will continue to be
in the 60s to lower 70s...despite more clouds than sunshine. Low
pressure will likely stay well south of the region near the Mid-
Atlantic coastline.  The mid and upper level trough becomes
positively tilted and shows signs of cutting off.  There is still a
slight to low chance of a showers from the SE Catskills and Hudson
River Valley eastward.  It will remain mild with lows in the 40s to
lower 50s. Our forecast remains closer to the latest ECMWF and WPC
guidance for Sunday...as low pressure moves well offshore...and a
lack of synoptic forcing within the upper trough as ridging tries to
fold in from the Great Lakes Region.  High are expected in the mid
60s to lower 70s over eastern NY and western New England.

Sunday night into Monday...Ridging from the Midwest and Great Lakes
Region builds eastward over the Northeast.  The upper trough appears
it will cut-off near the Delmarva region.  A cutoff low may impact
the area late Monday into Tuesday with some showers.  Our forecast
is mainly dry Monday...but chances of showers increase Mon night and
thereafter. Highs continue to be slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface trough will continue to gradually move southeastward
across the region and weaken through the tonight. chances for
showers will be limited to areas south of I-90. ceilings are
expected to remain vfr through the taf period...18z/wednesday.

Westerly winds 8 to 10 knots gusting into the teens. Winds will
shift to the northwest this evening then diminishing overnight.
a light north to northeast flow will develop wednesday morning.

Outlook...
Wed Night-Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sat Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sun: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
For today a weak disturbance will bring clouds and a chance of
showers. Mainly fair but chilly weather will continue on Wednesday
before a warming trend later in the week.

Relative humidity values will drop to 30 to 55 percent this
afternoon...recover to 70 to 90 percent tonight...and drop to 35
to 50 percent on Wednesday.

Winds will be west at 5 to 10 mph today...northwest at 5 to 10 mph
tonight...and northwest around 5 mph on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Little in the way of precipitation is expected across the fa
during the next 5 days with just some scattered showers with less
than a tenth of an inch of precipitation across the southeastern
third of the HSA this afternoon and tonight. Stream and River
levels are expected to continue to drop during this period.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...SND/11
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SND/11
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
100 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
For today a weak disturbance will bring clouds and a chance of
showers to the area mainly south of Interstate 90. Mainly fair
but chilly weather will continue on Wednesday before a warming
trend later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1259 PM...forecast is still on track. Radar shows some
light rain showers over the southern tier of New York extending
east to the catskill Mountains. Radar loop shows the rain moving
pretty much due east. This fits well with forecast highest POPs
south of Interstate 90. Satellite pictures show only scattered
clouds across the Adirondacks and southern Vermont while most of
the rest of the forecast area is cloudy. There are breaks over
Litchfield County Connecticut.

Cold front with a series of low pressure systems along it was
dropping southeast from Lakes Ontario and Erie. Ahead of this
frontal boundary are clouds and scattered showers which will
mainly impact the southern half of the forecast area later today.
Areas to the north of the Greater Capital District can expect
continued partly to mostly sunny skies while areas from the
Greater Capital District south will be mostly cloudy to cloudy.
Raised high temperatures a few degrees for today as temps have
already gone past earlier forecast highs in some locations. Upper
50s in the terrain to around 70 in the valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight there will continue to be the threat of scattered
showers across the southeast third of the fa as a wave of low
pressure moves through the middle Atlantic region and off the
coast. Northern areas will remain dry tonight with partly cloudy
skies while the southeastern third of the fa will be mostly
cloudy. Lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Dry weather is expected from Wednesday through Thursday night
along with moderating temperatures as a large ridge of high
pressure builds east from the central Great Lakes Wednesday
morning to the Northeastern states by late Thursday night. Highs
on Wednesday will be in the mid 50s to upper 60s with lows
Wednesday night in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Highs on Thursday will
be in the upper 50s to upper 60s with lows Thursday night in the
upper 30s to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended forecast begins with fair and dry weather...but an
upper level trough over the East Coast may cut-off late in the
weekend into early next week with some unsettled weather returning.

Fri-Fri night...A surface anticyclone moves over NY and New England
with mostly sunny...fair..and dry weather. H850 temps rise to +7C to
+8C. High temps will be a little above normal with lower to mid 70s
in the valleys...and mid to upper 60s over the Mtns.  High pressure
moves offshore...as low pressure approaches from the TN Valley and
the Mid-Atlantic states.  Clouds increase mainly south and west of
the Mohawk Valley.  Lows will generally be in the 40s.

Saturday into Sunday...Much of NY and New England remain in a mid
and upper-level jet confluent zone.  The system to the south may
have enough synoptic lift and moisture advection for a few showers
to get into the SE Catskills...mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT late in
the day to open the weekend.  Meanwhile...a cold front will be
approaching from southeast Canada.  Most of the day should remain
dry according to the CMC guidance...latest ECMWF...and many GEF
members. The GFS is the most aggressive bringing moisture from the
south in. Mainly isolated showers are forecasted for locations south
and west of Albany during the afternoon. Highs will continue to be
in the 60s to lower 70s...despite more clouds than sunshine. Low
pressure will likely stay well south of the region near the Mid-
Atlantic coastline.  The mid and upper level trough becomes
positively tilted and shows signs of cutting off.  There is still a
slight to low chance of a showers from the SE Catskills and Hudson
River Valley eastward.  It will remain mild with lows in the 40s to
lower 50s. Our forecast remains closer to the latest ECMWF and WPC
guidance for Sunday...as low pressure moves well offshore...and a
lack of synoptic forcing within the upper trough as ridging tries to
fold in from the Great Lakes Region.  High are expected in the mid
60s to lower 70s over eastern NY and western New England.

Sunday night into Monday...Ridging from the Midwest and Great Lakes
Region builds eastward over the Northeast.  The upper trough appears
it will cut-off near the Delmarva region.  A cutoff low may impact
the area late Monday into Tuesday with some showers.  Our forecast
is mainly dry Monday...but chances of showers increase Mon night and
thereafter. Highs continue to be slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A surface trough will move across the region today with an
increase in clouds and isolated to scattered showers for
locations mainly south and east of the Capital Region.

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours ending 12Z/WED for
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU. Clouds will gradually thicken and lower late
this morning into the early afternoon...with bases generally in
the 4.5-6 kft AGL range. Some VCSH groups were used from KALB-KPSF
south mainly after 18Z. This threat will continue into the early
evening.

The winds will increase from the southwest to west at 5-12
kts...and some gusts around 20 kts at KPSF. The passage of the
sfc trough will allow the winds to veer to the SW to W at 7-12 kts
in the afternoon into the early evening...before becoming light to
calm tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
For today a weak disturbance will bring clouds and a chance of
showers. Mainly fair but chilly weather will continue on Wednesday
before a warming trend later in the week.

Relative humidity values will drop to 30 to 55 percent this
afternoon...recover to 70 to 90 percent tonight...and drop to 35
to 50 percent on Wednesday.

Winds will be west at 5 to 10 mph today...northwest at 5 to 10 mph
tonight...and northwest around 5 mph on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Little in the way of precipitation is expected across the fa
during the next 5 days with just some scattered showers with less
than a tenth of an inch of precipitation across the southeastern
third of the HSA this afternoon and tonight. Stream and River
levels are expected to continue to drop during this period.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...SND/11
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...SND/11
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1254 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary approaches today. Low pressure will ride
along the front, passing to the south tonight. High pressure
builds into the area Wednesday through the end of the week. The
high moves offshore Friday night as low pressure brings unsettled
weather to the region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Clouds have diminished north of the city, but thinking is that
they`ll fill back in gradually this afternoon. Needed to bump up
high temp fcst for these areas by a few degrees. Minor upward
adjustments made to a few other areas based on latest obs and
trends.

Have lowered pops somewhat across the area. Pcpn associated with
low pressure to the south could brush the southern zones.
Meanwhile, a weak cold front sagging down from the north could
bring light rain to some northern zones by late as moisture
converges along the front. Any rainfall should be light as low
levels are fairly dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Shearing elongated upper trough passes to the north through this
time frame as sfc low pressure rides along the frontal boundary to
the south tonight, passing east Wednesday.

Any light rain tonight will depart, and generally expect dry
conditions through Wednesday. Best chance for light rain will be
along the coast and south, but will maintain chance pops
initially.

Clouds tonight give way to at least partial sunshine by Wednesday
afternoon. Expect low temps to range from the mid 40s to lower
50s, and high temps Wednesday will average in the mid to upper
60s. Model consensus followed.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Fairly high confidence forecast Wednesday through Friday across the
tri-State area as models are in good agreement on the overall
pattern. Uncertainty increases and forecast confidence decreases for
the upcoming weekend regarding possible low pressure affecting the
area.

High pressure will remain over the region Wednesday night through
Friday, providing fair and dry conditions. Temperatures will remain
near normal during this period. Highs on Thursday will climb into
the upper 60s and lower 70s, with slightly warmer temperatures on
Friday.

The next chance of unsettled weather comes over the weekend as low
pressure moving out of the middle portion of the country moves
towards the tri-state region. 00z forecast models differ on the
exact track of the low, however they all have precipitation moving
into the region late morning/early afternoon on Saturday and
continuing into Sunday, with the best chance of rain Saturday
afternoon and night. Depending on the exact track of the low, Sunday
may even be dry. Not confident enough to go dry Sunday, but will
keep chance/slight chance pops in the forecast. Chance pops continue
on Monday as an upper level low moves over the region. Temperatures
remain near normal for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak frontal system approaching the area today will be followed
by high pressure on Wednesday.

VFR today with W-SW flow 5-10 kt much of the TAF period. Winds
become more southerly late into the evening. Chances for MVFR
increase late today and tonight with the increasing chances of
rain.

There will be some gusts between 15-20 kt through the afternoon.
Winds become light and variable tonight...with a light northerly
flow going into early Wednesday.

 ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at:
http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is green...which
implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected..

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
.Wednesday Morning...Low chance of rain. MVFR possible.
.Wednesday Afternoon-Friday Night...VFR.
.Saturday...Possible light rain and MVFR or lower conditions
late.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions should remain below sca criteria today through
Wednesday as a frontal boundary approaches the waters. Low
pressure rides along this front, passing east Wednesday.

Sub-SCA conditions are likely from Wednesday night through Friday as
a weak pressure gradient is expected from high pressure over waters.
Sub-SCA conditions are likely to continue into Saturday, although
approaching low pressure from the south may increase winds and seas
to SCA levels Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Light rain is possible today and tonight, with any accumulations
under a tenth of an inch. No hydrologic impacts expected.

Dry weather is expected Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC/JM
MARINE...BC/PW
HYDROLOGY...BC/PW




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1039 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
For today a weak disturbance will bring clouds and a chance of
showers to the area mainly south of Interstate 90. Mainly fair
but chilly weather will continue on Wednesday before a warming
trend later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
forecast on track...have made minor adjustments mainly to pops and
sky cover. Guidance including the HRRR keep chances for showers
south of I-90.

A cold front with a series of low pressure systems along it was
dropping southeast from the Saint Lawrence Valley. Ahead of this
frontal boundary are clouds and scattered showers which will
mainly impact the southern half of the forecast area today with
the showers being most numerous during the afternoon hours. Areas
to the north of the Greater Capital District can expect partly to
mostly sunny skies while areas from the Greater Capital District
south will be mostly cloudy to cloudy. It will be a milder day
than Monday with highs this afternoon in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight there will continue to be the threat of scattered
showers across the southeast third of the fa as a wave of low
pressure moves through the middle Atlantic region and off the
coast. Northern areas will remain dry tonight with partly cloudy
skies while the southeastern third of the fa will be mostly
cloudy. Lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Dry weather is expected from Wednesday through Thursday night
along with moderating temperatures as a large ridge of high
pressure builds east from the central Great Lakes Wednesday
morning to the Northeastern states by late Thursday night. Highs
on Wednesday will be in the mid 50s to upper 60s with lows
Wednesday night in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Highs on Thursday will
be in the upper 50s to upper 60s with lows Thursday night in the
upper 30s to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended forecast begins with fair and dry weather...but an
upper level trough over the East Coast may cut-off late in the
weekend into early next week with some unsettled weather returning.

Fri-Fri night...A surface anticyclone moves over NY and New England
with mostly sunny...fair..and dry weather. H850 temps rise to +7C to
+8C. High temps will be a little above normal with lower to mid 70s
in the valleys...and mid to upper 60s over the Mtns.  High pressure
moves offshore...as low pressure approaches from the TN Valley and
the Mid-Atlantic states.  Clouds increase mainly south and west of
the Mohawk Valley.  Lows will generally be in the 40s.

Saturday into Sunday...Much of NY and New England remain in a mid
and upper-level jet confluent zone.  The system to the south may
have enough synoptic lift and moisture advection for a few showers
to get into the SE Catskills...mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT late in
the day to open the weekend.  Meanwhile...a cold front will be
approaching from southeast Canada.  Most of the day should remain
dry according to the CMC guidance...latest ECMWF...and many GEF
members. The GFS is the most aggressive bringing moisture from the
south in. Mainly isolated showers are forecasted for locations south
and west of Albany during the afternoon. Highs will continue to be
in the 60s to lower 70s...despite more clouds than sunshine. Low
pressure will likely stay well south of the region near the Mid-
Atlantic coastline.  The mid and upper level trough becomes
positively tilted and shows signs of cutting off.  There is still a
slight to low chance of a showers from the SE Catskills and Hudson
River Valley eastward.  It will remain mild with lows in the 40s to
lower 50s. Our forecast remains closer to the latest ECMWF and WPC
guidance for Sunday...as low pressure moves well offshore...and a
lack of synoptic forcing within the upper trough as ridging tries to
fold in from the Great Lakes Region.  High are expected in the mid
60s to lower 70s over eastern NY and western New England.

Sunday night into Monday...Ridging from the Midwest and Great Lakes
Region builds eastward over the Northeast.  The upper trough appears
it will cut-off near the Delmarva region.  A cutoff low may impact
the area late Monday into Tuesday with some showers.  Our forecast
is mainly dry Monday...but chances of showers increase Mon night and
thereafter. Highs continue to be slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A surface trough will move across the region today with an
increase in clouds and isolated to scattered showers for
locations mainly south and east of the Capital Region.

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours ending 12Z/WED for
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU. Clouds will gradually thicken and lower late
this morning into the early afternoon...with bases generally in
the 4.5-6 kft AGL range. Some VCSH groups were used from KALB-KPSF
south mainly after 18Z. This threat will continue into the early
evening.

The winds will increase from the southwest to west at 5-12
kts...and some gusts around 20 kts at KPSF. The passage of the
sfc trough will allow the winds to veer to the SW to W at 7-12 kts
in the afternoon into the early evening...before becoming light to
calm tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
For today a weak disturbance will bring clouds and a chance of
showers. Mainly fair but chilly weather will continue on Wednesday
before a warming trend later in the week.

Relative humidity values will drop to 30 to 55 percent this
afternoon...recover to 70 to 90 percent tonight...and drop to 35
to 50 percent on Wednesday.

Winds will be west at 5 to 10 mph today...northwest at 5 to 10 mph
tonight...and northwest around 5 mph on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Little in the way of precipitation is expected across the fa
during the next 5 days with just some scattered showers with less
than a tenth of an inch of precipitation across the southeastern
third of the HSA this afternoon and tonight. Stream and River
levels are expected to continue to drop during this period.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SND/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...SND/11
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
459 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the Great Lakes region as low pressure
passes to the south and east today and Thursday. High pressure
remains in control through the end of the week. An unsettled weather
pattern sets up this weekend and may continue into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid and upper level trough remains northwest of the area today.
Subsidence this morning gives way to weak lift/PVA later today.
However, consensus of models keeps area mainly dry today, but a
spot shower cannot be completely ruled out. Trough will most
likely be responsible for enough mid level moisture/cloud
development to result in partly to mostly cloudy conditions.

Sfc high remains across the Great Lakes region today, as sfc low and
frontal boundary remains well to the south.

Under at least some clouds, expect temps to remain a few degrees
below normal today, with highs mainly in the middle to upper 60s.
A few locations could reach 70 degrees across the interior.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Mid and upper level trough/upper low moves slowly east in time,
passing across New England during the day Thursday. Better model
agreement today in handling of this feature.

Sfc low along a frontal boundary remains south of the area,
before it passes east Thursday.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected, but the local area
should remain dry tonight into Thursday morning. With daytime
heating, weak upper level lift, and weak instability, the presence
of the upper trough could trigger a few showers across New England,
with chance pops over the interior zones Thursday afternoon. Will
mention isolated thunder, close to general thunderstorm day 2
outlook via SPC.

Temps tonight range from the lower and middle 40s across the
normally cooler locales, to the lower 50s in and around New York
City metro. On Thursday, highs should range from the mid 60s to
around 70, a few degrees below normal once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level low moves east Thursday night with high pressure and
upper level ridging moving over the area for Friday. Expect dry
conditions and temperatures near normal on Friday.

Models and ensembles are coming into better agreement with the
large scale pattern, an unsettled one for our area, for the
upcoming weekend. A highly amplified pattern across the CONUS with
a deep trough across the west, a deep ridge across the central
states, and an amplifying trough across the east. Low pressure
develops across the southeast on Saturday and will move off the
middle Atlantic coast Saturday evening. The trough looks to be
positively tilted, so the low should pass off to the south and
east of the area. However, the northern extent of the
precipitation shield is progged to affect at least the southern half
of the area Saturday into Saturday night. Will continue to keep high
chance across the southern half of the area late Saturday/Saturday
night. This is where the biggest uncertainty lies within the latest
models, how close to the coast the low will get will ultimately
determine the extent of the rainfall across our area.

The low moves offshore Sunday morning, but the upper trough will
linger across the east coast into early next week. The trough is
probably going to cutoff from the main flow on Sunday with strong
ridging on either side of it. This cutoff low will then meander
along the middle Atlantic into early next week with the possibility
of another area of low pressure sometime Monday into Tuesday. Will
continue to keep chance pops in the forecast through early next week.

Temperatures may average near to slightly below average from this
weekend into early next week with the unsettled regime.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak low pressure continues to move southeast of Long Island as
high pressure slowly builds in from the west. VFR conditions are
expected with winds under 10 kt through the TAF period. The wind
direction will vary but will be more from a NE-SE direction
today with sea breezes likely by afternoon into early evening
before winds become variable again.

High confidence with category forecast. Moderate confidence with
wind forecast.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at:
http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of sea breeze could be 1-2 hours off
from TAF.

KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of sea breeze could be 1-2 hours off
from TAF.

KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of sea breeze could be 1-2 hours off
from TAF.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is green...which
implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of sea breeze could be 1-3 hours off
from TAF.

KHPN TAF Comments: Timing of sea breeze could be 1-3 hours off
from TAF.

KISP TAF Comments: Timing of sea breeze could be 1-3 hours off
from TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
.Late Wednesday Night...VFR.
.Thursday-Thursday Night...Mainly VFR. Low chance of MVFR in
scattered afternoon/evening showers.
.Friday-Friday Night...VFR.
.Saturday-Sunday...MVFR or lower in rain and/or E-NE Winds
g20-30+ kt are possible; depending on the exact track and timing
of a coastal low.

&&

.MARINE...
Fairly tranquil conditions with regard to winds and seas can be
expected today through Thursday. A weak area of low pressure will
pass to the south and east of the waters as high pressure builds
across the great lakes region.

Seas on the ocean increase to SCA levels Saturday night into
Sunday as low pressure moves off the Middle Atlantic coast. Wind
gusts on the ocean may also approach 25 kt.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Generally dry weather is expected through Thursday.
Rain is possible at any time from late Saturday through early next
week, but no hydrologic impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/PW
HYDROLOGY...BC/PW



  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
351 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure builds across the region today and tonight. A
weak front may trigger scattered showers or even thunderstorms
Thursday. High pressure over the Northeast USA Friday and early
Saturday brings dry weather to New England. Low pressure
developing over the Southeast USA moves northeast past Nantucket
Sunday. Second low pressure develops off the Carolina coast
Saturday and moves north over Southern New England early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Coastal low pres will continue to bring a band of light rain to
the Cape/Islands through sunrise..but then will lead to increased
sunshine mixed with mid-clouds through the remainder of the
morning.

Brief ridge of high pres controls sensible wx today, leading to
mainly dry conditions with periods of clouds mixing in due to
modest cyclonic curvature to the NE. Max temp switch-up expected
today, as the wrn MA/CT are likely to be the warmest, and in the
low 70s while the eastern third of the region cools due to sea
breeze influence beginning mid morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Tonight...
High pres remains in control during the overnight hours, but
shortwave passing to the S may yield increasing clouds at times
through the overnight hours. Mins therefore, not expected to be as
cold as they could with full decoupling, but still mainly in the
40s across much of the region.

Thu...
Upper lvl shortwave becomes weak cutoff across nrn New England.
This feature is coincident with H5 temps dropping below -20C and
mid lvl lapse rates exceeding 6C/km. Combine this with an increase
in pwats near 0.75 inches...and as mixing/warming commences mid
day expect shra activity to develop mainly across the interior
/where heating will be maximized first/ then spread to the east.
Will continue to highlight low risk for TS with these shra due to
ice development and high lapse rates.

Low risk for small hail with very low wetbulb-zero lvls and cold
H5 temps as well as some gusty winds with mixing to H8 providing
nice inverted-v profiles.

Highs a bit cooler than previous days due both to an increase in
early clouds and another round of expected sea breezes.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Big Picture...

Longwave trough develops over the western USA while a longwave ridge
builds over the east. This suggests a trend to warmer temperatures
during the long term period. At shortwave scales the picture is a
little different. One shortwave over New England Thursday night
moves off through the Maritimes. A second shortwave, ejected out of
the western trough, moves east across the Plains and generates
surface low pressure over the Southeast USA Friday. This low passes
offshore of Nantucket Sunday morning. A third shortwave drops south
from the northern stream and helps form a closed low over the Mid
Atlantic states by Monday with a surface reflection of this low over
the coastal waters and slowly moving up the coast to New England.

The shortwaves Sunday and Tuesday suggest unsettled weather the
latter half of the weekend and early next week. The building
longwave ridge brings a trend to seasonably warm temperatures late
this week. Low level northeast flow Sunday through Tuesday may keep
temps closer to seasonal levels.

Details...

Thursday night through Saturday...

Lingering scattered showers/tstms early Thursday night from the
first shortwave and lingering cold pool instability aloft. These
features move off to the east by midnight with clearing and more
stable air in place by morning. Light wind and moist ground may lead
to areas of fog and poor vsbys.

High pressure in place during this period with dry weather.
Developing southwest flow aloft will bring increasing high-level
moisture and clouds Friday night and Saturday. Mixing should reach
800 mb Friday and 850 mb Saturday. Temperatures at those levels
support max sfc temps in the Low to Mid 70s both days. Dew points in
the 40s suggest mins in the 40s Thursday night and 45-55 during the
cloudier Friday night.

Saturday night and Sunday...

Second shortwave moves past Nantucket. Supporting upper jet shifts
east placing us in the favorable right entrance region supporting
upper venting and lift. Low level inflow of moist air is more
limited to southern parts of the region. A blend of the GFS and
ECMWF brings the most consistent solution and is favored here. That
will keep the heaviest rain offshore with the best chance on land
taking place over Cape Cod and the Islands. Northern edge of rain
shield would be along the Mass Pike. This could extend into
Northeast Mass Sunday morning as the offshore low makes its closest
approach.

Monday and Tuesday...

Differences between the GFS and ECMWF with the coastal system next
week. But both end in the same place with the surface low crossing
East Coastal MA late Tuesday. This scenario would bring rain/showers
to our area Monday and Tuesday. As this is late in the forecast
period we have capped pops at 40 pct.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday/...

Today and Tonight...High confidence.
VFR. Winds shift to the N-NW early this morning but generally
remain 5-10 kt through the day. Sea breezes impact typically prone
terminals mid-late morning.

Tomorrow...Moderate Confidence.
Mainly VFR...but expect SHRA to develop across the interior late
morning into the afternoon then transition east. These could
include brief MVFR vsbys/cigs...along with a low risk for small
hail and gusty winds.

KBOS TAF...High confidence, sea breezes begin 14-15Z.

KBDL TAF...High confidence.

Outlook /Thursday night through Sunday/...

Thursday night through Saturday...High Confidence.

Areas of MVFR in showers early Thursday night. VFR most areas
through Saturday afternoon. Areas of IFR cigs/vsbys in fog both
Friday and Saturday mornings.

Saturday night and Sunday...

MVFR and IFR in rain and fog.  Best chance for this will be south of
the Mass Pike.  Northeast wind Sunday with gusts to 25 knots around
Cape Cod and Islands.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today and tonight...High confidence.
Weak high pres moves over the waters allowing for a clearing
behind this early morning/s rains. Winds and seas generally remain
below small craft thresholds.

Tomorrow...High confidence.
Risk for late day showers especially near shore with localized
gusty winds, however overall winds and seas once again remain
relatively quiet.

Outlook /Thursday night through Sunday/...

Thursday night through Saturday...

Winds less than 20 knots and seas less than 5 feet through the
period.

Saturday night and Sunday...

Coastal low pressure passes outside of Nantucket. Southerly winds
Saturday night become Northeast by Sunday morning with gusts 25 to
30 knots on the southern waters. Seas building 5 to 9 feet by Sunday
on the exposed waters. Small Craft Advisory may be needed,
especially on the southern and southeast outer waters.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/Doody
NEAR TERM...Doody
SHORT TERM...Doody
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/Doody
MARINE...WTB/Doody



  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
333 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually build into the region during the
remainder of the week, but there will be a threat of afternoon
showers on Thursday. Temperatures will gradually moderate to
slightly above normal levels by Friday under sunny skies.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Today will feature plenty of sun across the northern half of the
fa with more in the way of clouds across the southern half of the
fa resulting in partly sunny skies. The clouds are due to a
stationary front off the mid Atlantic coast which will be
retreating to the south and east as the day progresses. highs
today will range from the upper 50s northwest to the upper 60s
southeast. winds will be light generally around 5 mph from the
north to northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight expect dry weather to continue as a large ridge of
high pressure starts to expand eastward from the great lakes
region. Skies will generally be mostly cloudy due to an upper
level disturbance which will be moving into northern New York.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s northwest to the mid
40s southeast.

On Thursday the upper level disturbance and its associated vort
axis will move from northern New York into Northern New England.
As a result on this feature there will be scattered showers around
especially during the afternoon. Highs on Thursday will be in the
upper 50s to upper 60s once again.

Dry weather is expected across the fa from Thursday night through
Friday night as the ridge of high pressure settles over the region
Friday morning and then moves off the eastern seaboard by
Saturday morning. Expect lows Thursday night to range from the
upper 30s to mid 40s with highs on Friday in the mid 60s to mid
70s. Lows Friday night will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Uncertainty will remain higher than normal during this portion of
the forecast, as upper level energy digs southward from eastern
Canada into the Northeast/Northern Appalachians region. Initially,
one surface low is expected to develop and track off the northern
mid Atlantic coast Saturday-Sunday, with the possibility of another
wave passing across or just east of New England for Tuesday.

At this time, it appears that the first low should pass far enough
south and east of the region to limit any potential impacts to the
mid Hudson Valley, northwest CT and western MA, where some light
rain or showers will be possible Saturday afternoon into early
Sunday. However, as the upper level energy digs southward, there is
the possibility of additional isolated showers developing farther
north and west, especially across higher elevations of the southern
Adirondacks/southern VT both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Will
have to watch future model trends, in case POPs need to be
expanded/increased across these areas.

Then, another wave of low pressure is expected to develop off the
mid Atlantic coast Monday and then should track north or northeast.
Latest 00Z/18 deterministic models have trended farther south and
east with overall track with this possible coastal wave, most
notably the 00Z/18 ECMWF. Meanwhile, the bulk of 00Z/18 GEFS members
still indicate at least some form of a coastal wave tracking far
enough north and west to bring rain or showers to much of the region
by Tuesday. Have therefore kept chc POPs for Tue, increasing through
the day from SE to NW. However, if the more progressive ECMWF
solution and trend prove correct, any rainfall may remain limited to
far eastern areas during this time.

As for temperatures, expect near seasonable temperatures for most
areas from Albany and points N and W, while remaining a bit below
normal to the south and east where the potential for more clouds,
showers and a cooler maritime air mass will remain.
Highs through this period should range from 70-75 across valley
areas from Albany N and W, to 65-70 across higher elevations, and
also southeast areas, where even cooler max temps could occur should
more clouds and rain occur. Overnight low temperatures should
generally range from the mid 40s across higher elevations, to the
lower 50s across much of the Hudson Valley region.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will slowly build across the TAF sites through
Wednesday. A weak wave of low pressure will pass well south of the
TAF sites late Wednesday, bringing some high and mid level clouds.

VFR conditions are expected through at least 06Z/Thu, with mainly
an increase in high and mid level clouds.

Winds will remain from the North to Northeast at most TAF sites at
less than 10 kt through 06Z/Thu.

Outlook...
Thursday Night: Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will gradually build into the region during the
remainder of the week, but there will be a threat of afternoon
showers on Thursday. Temperatures will gradually moderate to
slightly above normal levels by Friday under sunny skies.

Relative humidity values will drop to 30 to 45 percent
today, recover to 80 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 40 to 55
percent on Thursday.

Winds will be north to northwest around 5 mph today, light and
variable tonight, and northwest around 5 mph on Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The NWS Weather Prediction Center precipitation forecast for the
next 7 days shows amounts ranging from near zero across the
northern third of the fa to around a half inch across the far
southern part of the fa. Stream and river levels are expected to
vary little or continue to drop during this period.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/11
NEAR TERM...SND/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
253 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the Great Lakes region as low pressure
passes to the south and east today and Thursday. High pressure
remains in control through the end of the week. An unsettled weather
pattern sets up this weekend and may continue into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Mid and upper level trough remains northwest of the area today.
Subsidence this morning gives way to weak lift/PVA later today.
However, consensus of models keeps area mainly dry today, but a
spot shower cannot be completely ruled out. Trough will most
likely be responsible for enough mid level moisture/cloud
development to result in partly to mostly cloudy conditions.

Sfc high remains across the Great Lakes region today, as sfc low and
frontal boundary remains well to the south.

Under at least some clouds, expect temps to remain a few degrees
below normal today, with highs mainly in the middle to upper 60s.
A few locations could reach 70 degrees across the interior.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Mid and upper level trough/upper low moves slowly east in time,
passing across New England during the day Thursday. Better model
agreement today in handling of this feature.

Sfc low along a frontal boundary remains south of the area,
before it passes east Thursday.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected, but the local area
should remain dry tonight into Thursday morning. With daytime
heating, weak upper level lift, and weak instability, the presence
of the upper trough could trigger a few showers across New England,
with chance pops over the interior zones Thursday afternoon. Will
mention isolated thunder, close to general thunderstorm day 2
outlook via SPC.

Temps tonight range from the lower and middle 40s across the
normally cooler locales, to the lower 50s in and around New York
City metro. On Thursday, highs should range from the mid 60s to
around 70, a few degrees below normal once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level low moves east Thursday night with high pressure and
upper level ridging moving over the area for Friday. Expect dry
conditions and temperatures near normal on Friday.

Models and ensembles are coming into better agreement with the
large scale pattern, an unsettled one for our area, for the
upcoming weekend. A highly amplified pattern across the CONUS with
a deep trough across the west, a deep ridge across the central
states, and an amplifying trough across the east. Low pressure
develops across the southeast on Saturday and will move off the
middle Atlantic coast Saturday evening. The trough looks to be
positively tilted, so the low should pass off to the south and
east of the area. However, the northern extent of the
precipitation shield is progged to affect at least the southern half
of the area Saturday into Saturday night. Will continue to keep high
chance across the southern half of the area late Saturday/Saturday
night. This is where the biggest uncertainty lies within the latest
models, how close to the coast the low will get will ultimately
determine the extent of the rainfall across our area.

The low moves offshore Sunday morning, but the upper trough will
linger across the east coast into early next week. The trough is
probably going to cutoff from the main flow on Sunday with strong
ridging on either side of it. This cutoff low will then meander
along the middle Atlantic into early next week with the possibility
of another area of low pressure sometime Monday into Tuesday. Will
continue to keep chance pops in the forecast through early next week.

Temperatures may average near to slightly below average from this
weekend into early next week with the unsettled regime.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak low pressure continues to move southeast of Long Island as
high pressure slowly builds in from the west. VFR conditions are
expected with winds under 10 kt through the TAF period. The wind
direction will vary but will be more from a NE-SE direction
Wednesday with sea breezes likely by afternoon into early evening
before winds become variable again.

High confidence with category forecast. Moderate confidence with
wind forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
.Late Wednesday Night...VFR.
.Thursday-Thursday Night...Mainly VFR. Low chance of MVFR in
scattered afternoon/evening showers.
.Friday-Friday Night...VFR.
.Saturday-Sunday...MVFR or lower in rain and/or E-NE Winds
g20-30+ kt are possible; depending on the exact track and timing
of a coastal low.

&&

.MARINE...
Fairly tranquil conditions with regard to winds and seas can be
expected today through Thursday. A weak area of low pressure will
pass to the south and east of the waters as high pressure builds
across the great lakes region.

Seas on the ocean increase to SCA levels Saturday night into
Sunday as low pressure moves off the Middle Atlantic coast. Wind
gusts on the ocean may also approach 25 kt.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Generally dry weather is expected through Thursday.
Rain is possible at any time from late Saturday through early next
week, but no hydrologic impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/PW
HYDROLOGY...BC/PW




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
203 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes to the south overnight while a weak cold
front shifts through area. A weak surface trough moves across the
region on Thursday. Otherwise, high pressure remains in control
through the end of the week. An unsettled weather pattern sets up
this weekend and may continue into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Only light precipitation possible across coastal zones this
evening. Will keep pops capped at slight chance as low pres passes
well south of Long Island.

Lows tonight will be around 50 in/around NYC, and in the low to
mid 40s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Shortwave approaches from the west, and may supply enough lift for
isolated showers Wednesday morning from around the city and points
west. Otherwise, models in agreement of 700mb moisture keeping us
mostly cloudy, however there is a chance that skies become partly
sunny. A better chance of this would be across the northern zones.
High temps probably close to those of today, assuming more
clouds than sun and a similar mixing profile, mostly 65-70.

A shortwave approaches late at night Wednesday, but weak high
pressure remains in place. This likely keeps us dry, and low temps
will be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Trends in the model guidance have slowed the passage of a
positively tilted 500 hPa shortwave by about 12 hours from early
Thursday to late Thursday since yesterdays model runs. Surface
high pressure will build into the area from the Great Lakes on
Thursday. Due to the shortwave moving across in the afternoon and
evening, a weak surface trough will likely set up. Low levels look
rather dry on model soundings, but there may be just enough
instability for a few showers. Have bumped up pops to slight
chance for now. It would not be out of the realm of possibilities
that a few stronger showers contain small hail and lightning with
a cold pocket aloft, but have left out of the grids with this
forecast package. The shortwave passes to the east Thursday night
with ridging aloft and high pressure in control on Friday.
Seasonable temperatures forecast on Thursday with temperatures a
few degrees above normal on Friday.

Models and ensembles are coming into better agreement with the
large scale pattern, an unsettled one for our area, for the
upcoming weekend. A highly amplified pattern across the CONUS with
a deep trough across the west, a deep ridge across the central
states, and an amplifying trough across the east. Low pressure
develops across the southeast on Saturday and will move off the
middle atlantic coast Saturday evening. The trough looks to be
positively tilted, so the low should pass off to the south and
east of the area. However, the northern extent of the
precipitation shield is progged to affect at least the southern
half of the area late Saturday into Saturday night. Have trended
pops upward from previous forecast but no greater than high chance
across the southern half of the area late Saturday/Saturday night.
This is where the biggest uncertainty lies within the latest
models, how close to the coast the low will get will ultimately
determine the extent of the rainfall across our area.

The low moves offshore Sunday morning, but the upper trough will
linger across the east coast. The trough is probably going to
cutoff from the main flow on Sunday with strong ridging on either
side of it. This cutoff low will then meander along the middle
atlantic into early next week with the possibility of another area
of low pressure sometime Monday into Tuesday. Cutoff lows can
cause havoc in the models with smaller scale features, so did not
want to sway too far from a model consensus forecast in the Sunday
through Tuesday period.

Temperatures may average near to slightly below average from this
weekend into early next week with the unsettled regime.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak low pressure continues to move southeast of Long Island as
high pressure slowly builds in from the west. VFR conditions are
expected with winds under 10 kt through the TAF period. The wind
direction will vary but will be more from a NE-SE direction
Wednesday with sea breezes likely by afternoon into early evening
before winds become variable again.

High confidence with category forecast. Moderate confidence with
wind forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
.Late Wednesday Night...VFR.
.Thursday-Thursday Night...Mainly VFR. Low chance of MVFR in
scattered afternoon/evening showers.
.Friday-Friday Night...VFR.
.Saturday-Sunday...MVFR or lower in rain and/or E-NE Winds
g20-30+ kt are possible; depending on the exact track and timing
of a coastal low.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient and lack of significant swell will
maintain sub-sca conditions over the local waters through
Saturday.

Seas on the ocean increase to SCA levels Saturday night into
Sunday as low pressure moves off the Middle Atlantic coast. Wind
gusts on the ocean may also approach 25 kt.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant rainfall expected through tonight. Dry weather is
expected Wednesday through Friday.

Rain is possible at any time from late Saturday through early next
week, but no hydrologic impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
106 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
For tonight, weak low pressure moving along a cold front will
bring clouds to the area. High pressure will gradually build into
the region during the remainder of the week, but there will be a
threat of afternoon showers on Thursday. Temperatures will
gradually moderate to slightly above normal levels by Friday under
sunny skies.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1215 AM EDT...Some clearing is taking place in the Mohawk
Valley and Adirondacks which will move into most of the region
before a return toward more clouds late tonight.

Where the growing season has started, low temperatures are
forecast to remain just above thresholds for frost with the
exception of our Catskill zones where lows may reach the mid 30s.
Clouds will modulate overnight lows and areas that see more
clearing will see lower temperatures. Have included patchy frost
in our Catskill zones. Lows tonight generally in the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Although high pressure will be building into the region at the
surface through the week, an upper level trough will remain just
upstream of the Albany Forecast area through Thursday. The
combination of broad ascent in association with the trough and an
upper level cold pool will enhance the threat for afternoon
showers as daytime heating destabilizes the atmosphere. this
trough will also mean cloudiness will be variable due to the broad
ascent. Temperatures look to be slightly below seasonable with
lows in the 30s and 40s and highs in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term will be transitional from a ridge axis to a
positively tilted trough then progress into a cut-off upper low
which would result some changes to the forecast.

We begin this long term with an elongated surface ridge axis on
Friday that is progged to slide off the mid-Atlantic coastline
Friday night.  This will keep our weather mainly dry, seasonable
with partly cloudy conditions.

Then energy coming out of the southern CONUS and Gulf of Mexico
begins to carve out a trough along the eastern third of the CONUS
that will result in a complex forecast for the weekend into early
next week.

Latest NCEP model suite and international guidance now wants to
develop a coastal low along the mid-Atlantic coastline and track
this system along the eastern seaboard.  The impacts will be from an
increase in cloud coverage and the probabilities for showers/light
rain on the increase from south to north.  There have been model
signals for the past couple of days of this possibility as majority
of the GFS ensemble members now suggest this coastal low to impact
the region Monday.

Temperatures through the period will average near normal with
precipitation near normal and may go above normal dependent on the
coastal low impacts/tracks.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will slowly build across the TAF sites through
Wednesday. A weak wave of low pressure will pass well south of the
TAF sites late Wednesday, bringing some high and mid level clouds.

VFR conditions are expected through at least 06Z/Thu, with mainly
an increase in high and mid level clouds.

Winds will remain from the North to Northeast at most TAF sites at
less than 10 kt through 06Z/Thu.

Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Minimum relative humidity values around 30 percent Wednesday
afternoon.

Ridge of high pressure will keep our weather fairly dry under
variable cloud coverage through the mid week period. The next chance
for showers arrives on Thursday as an upper level low pressure area
tracks across the region.

Relative humidity values will recover to between 70 to 90 percent
tonight...and drop to around 30 percent on Wednesday.

Winds will be west to northwest at 5 to 10 mph tonight...and a light
northerly wind around 5 mph on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The NWS Weather Prediction Center precipitation forecast for the
next 7 days shows amounts ranging from near zero across the
Adirondacks to around a half inch across the far southern part of
the forecast area. Stream and River levels are expected to vary
little or continue to drop during this period.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/11
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...SND




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1041 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes to the south overnight while a weak cold
front shifts through area. A weak surface trough moves across the
region on Thursday. Otherwise, high pressure remains in control
through the end of the week. An unsettled weather pattern sets up
this weekend and may continue into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Only light precipitation possible across coastal zones this
evening. Will keep pops capped at slight chance as low pres passes
well south of Long Island.

Lows tonight will be around 50 in/around NYC, and in the low to
mid 40s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave approaches from the west, and may supply enough lift for
isolated showers Wednesday morning from around the city and points
west. Otherwise, models in agreement of 700mb moisture keeping us
mostly cloudy, however there is a chance that skies become partly
sunny. A better chance of this would be across the northern zones.
High temps probably close to those of today, assuming more
clouds than sun and a similar mixing profile, mostly 65-70.

A shortwave approaches late at night Wednesday, but weak high
pressure remains in place. This likely keeps us dry, and low temps
will be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Trends in the model guidance have slowed the passage of a
positively tilted 500 hPa shortwave by about 12 hours from early
Thursday to late Thursday since yesterdays model runs. Surface
high pressure will build into the area from the Great Lakes on
Thursday. Due to the shortwave moving across in the afternoon and
evening, a weak surface trough will likely set up. Low levels look
rather dry on model soundings, but there may be just enough
instability for a few showers. Have bumped up pops to slight
chance for now. It would not be out of the realm of possibilities
that a few stronger showers contain small hail and lightning with
a cold pocket aloft, but have left out of the grids with this
forecast package. The shortwave passes to the east Thursday night
with ridging aloft and high pressure in control on Friday.
Seasonable temperatures forecast on Thursday with temperatures a
few degrees above normal on Friday.

Models and ensembles are coming into better agreement with the
large scale pattern, an unsettled one for our area, for the
upcoming weekend. A highly amplified pattern across the CONUS with
a deep trough across the west, a deep ridge across the central
states, and an amplifying trough across the east. Low pressure
develops across the southeast on Saturday and will move off the
middle atlantic coast Saturday evening. The trough looks to be
positively tilted, so the low should pass off to the south and
east of the area. However, the northern extent of the
precipitation shield is progged to affect at least the southern
half of the area late Saturday into Saturday night. Have trended
pops upward from previous forecast but no greater than high chance
across the southern half of the area late Saturday/Saturday night.
This is where the biggest uncertainty lies within the latest
models, how close to the coast the low will get will ultimately
determine the extent of the rainfall across our area.

The low moves offshore Sunday morning, but the upper trough will
linger across the east coast. The trough is probably going to
cutoff from the main flow on Sunday with strong ridging on either
side of it. This cutoff low will then meander along the middle
atlantic into early next week with the possibility of another area
of low pressure sometime Monday into Tuesday. Cutoff lows can
cause havoc in the models with smaller scale features, so did not
want to sway too far from a model consensus forecast in the Sunday
through Tuesday period.

Temperatures may average near to slightly below average from this
weekend into early next week with the unsettled regime.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak low pressure tracks to the south of Long Island overnight.
High pressure then builds in from the west into Wednesday
evening, as another low tracks well to the south.

VFR through the TAF period.

Winds becoming light and variable throughout by 4-5z. Light NE
flow develops Wednesday morning, with seabreezes developing early
Wednesday afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
.Wednesday night...VFR with early evening seabreezes.
.Thursday-Thursday Night...Mainly VFR. Low chance of MVFR in
scattered afternoon/evening showers.
.Friday-Friday Night...VFR.
.Saturday-Sunday...MVFR or lower in rain and/or E-NE Winds
g20-30+ kt are possible; depending on the exact track and timing
of a coastal low.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient and lack of significant swell will
maintain sub-sca conditions over the local waters through
Saturday.

Seas on the ocean increase to SCA levels Saturday night into
Sunday as low pressure moves off the Middle Atlantic coast. Wind
gusts on the ocean may also approach 25 kt.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant rainfall expected through tonight. Dry weather is
expected Wednesday through Friday.

Rain is possible at any time from late Saturday through early next
week, but no hydrologic impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...Maloit
MARINE...MPS/JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
654 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will pass south of New England tonight but could graze
Nantucket and Martha`s Vineyard, perhaps even parts of Cape Cod.
Otherwise dry and mild weather will prevail through Wed. A weak
front may trigger scattered showers or even thunderstorms Thu. A
coastal low may bring wet weather late Sat into early next week as
it lingers offshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Updated 655 pm Tue...

Confluent flow across New England is keeping northern edge of
showers south of region as seen on regional radar loop. High-res
models (HRRR in particular) are struggling with subsidence over
region and trying to generate scattered showers across much of
southern New England. Based upon radar trends we will keep mention
of showers confined to Nantucket, the Vineyard, and parts of Cape
Cod (which also lines up with consensus of high-res models).

Clearing from NW to SE overnight combined with a dry airmass and
light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the 40s to
around 50 by daybreak Wed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Updated 307 pm Tue...

Tomorrow ... short wave ridging between departing system tonight and
next upper trough Thu provides dry weather here Wed. Partial
sunshine expected with sct-bkn cu/strato-cu along with some mid/high
clouds as well. However strong mid May sunshine and lack of a strong
subsidence inversion will promote a deep blyr with model sndgs
indicating mixing up to at least 800 mb! For this reason went a
little warmer than guid with expected highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. A few locations in the CT river valley may come close to
75.

This combined with light winds will provide very pleasant
conditions. However the light pressure gradient will promote
afternoon seabreezes resulting in high temps being realized around
midday and then falling back thru the 60s into the 50s near shore.

Tomorrow night ... dry weather as high pressure from the Great Lakes
builds into New England. Seasonably cool with lows in the 40s. Light
north to northeast winds. Again leaned toward the cooler mos
temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Updated 307 pm Tue...

Highlights...

 * Showers/isolated storms with small hail Thu.
 * Coastal low brings some rain late Sat into Sun, esp south.
 * Unsettled Mon/Tue but not a washout.

Details...

Still looking for signs of a prolonged warmup (ie Spring) but
nothing evident over next 7 days (but after that it`s looking more
promising). Medium range models and their ensembles are in
reasonable agreement with a pair of troughs crossing Northeast
Thu/Fri. Another deepening trough heading across Plains closes
off over Eastern Seaboard this weekend, and eventually opens up as
it reaches southern New England early next week.

Uncertainty with this forecast lies in coverage of showers/storms
Thu and Thu night, how far north rain extends from the coastal low
Sat night and Sun, then what effects we see from upper low early
next week.

* Thu into Fri...Moderate confidence.

Upper trough tries to close off as it rotates through New England
Thu. Cyclonic flow and cold air aloft (near -20C at 500mb) will
yield steep lapse rates (6-7C/km) which should be enough to
generate at least scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms,
initially in western New England during the afternoon before heading
to the coast toward evening. Activity should head offshore Thu
night.

Some showers/storms could produce small hail (given low freezing
levels) and gusty winds (35 mph based upon inverted-V soundings),
but overall threat of any severe weather is minimal.

Dry and milder weather returns Fri as weak ridge builds over
southern New England.

* Sat into Sun...Moderate confidence.

Main question deals with effects of coastal low, namely how far
north does rain shield extend? This is more reminiscent of a
wintertime scenario, with models varying in track and intensity.
12z GFS remains most aggressive and is farthest north with a track
near 40/70 while 12z ECMWF and UKMET favor more of a glancing
blow. Ensembles, including GEFS, support a more suppressed
solution so we are favoring more of a glancing blow as opposed to
widespread rainfall later Sat into Sun. Right now we are
forecasting northern edge of rain to reach about as far north as
Mass Pike, with most of rain focused closer to South Coast, Cape
Cod, and the Islands. At least we don`t have to worry about snow!

* Mon into Tue...Low confidence.

Nothing like dealing with a closed upper low in mid May. Models
bring it and its surface low up Eastern Seaboard and onto land
somewhere between NJ and southern New England. It`s going to be a
couple of days at least before models begin to have a better
handle on this system, so we will maintain clouds and some mention
of showers which is in line with the consensus of models. These
types of systems tend to produce bands of showers as opposed to
widespread heavy rain, but locally heavy rainfall is a
possibility.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Updated 655 pm Tue...

High confidence through Wed night.

VFR ceilings aoa 050 tonight, except around KACK/KMVY where a
period of MVFR ceilings are possible late tonight as showers graze
the islands. Dry conditions expected elsewhere.

VFR with light winds Wed and Wed night. Expect sea breezes to
develop near both coasts late morning Wed into the afternoon.

KBOS TAF...High confidence.

KBDL TAF...High confidence.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday...Moderate confidence. MVFR in scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms, some with small hail. Sea breezes near
coast by afternoon.

Friday...Moderate Confidence. VFR.

Saturday and Sunday...Moderate confidence. MVFR/IFR in rain and
fog Saturday night into Sunday, especially near South Coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Updated 655 pm Tue...

Tonight...SCA will be allowed to expire at 8 pm as winds will
subside within next hour or two. Showers expected on waters south
and east of Nantucket, but will not significantly restrict
visibility.

Wednesday ... light winds with weak high pressure overhead.
Afternoon sea breezes expected near shore. Spotty light rain
possible early over Southeast waters.

Wed night ... light northeast winds but dry weather and good vsby
expected.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Winds and seas should stay below SCA (25 kt winds and 5 ft seas)
Thu and Fri. Increasing NE winds expected Sat into Sun as coastal
low passes SE of New England, bringing rain and fog to waters. SCA
conditions most likely at this time.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ230>237-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/JWD
NEAR TERM...Nocera/JWD
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...Nocera/JWD
MARINE...Nocera/JWD




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
551 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes to the south tonight while a weak cold front
shifts through area. A weak surface trough moves across the region
on Thursday. Otherwise, high pressure remains in control through
the end of the week. An unsettled weather pattern sets up this
weekend and may continue into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Two surface features could bring light showers to the CWA tonight.
The first is weak low pressure which is bringing the northern
extent of its Precipitation shield near the southern zones. The
other feature is a weak cold front that will slowly shift through,
probably reaching the offshore waters by morning. Moisture
convergence and lift along the front along with some shortwave
lift could bring light showers to the northern zones in the
evening. Will cap pops at slight chance. Low temps are a blend of
MAV/MET mos.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave approaches from the west, and may supply enough lift for
isolated showers Wednesday morning from around the city and points
west. Otherwise, models in agreement of 700mb moisture keeping us
mostly cloudy, however there is a chance that skies become partly
sunny. A better chance of this would be across the northern zones.
High temps probably close to those of today, assuming more
clouds than sun and a similar mixing profile, mostly 65-70.

A shortwave approaches late at night Wednesday, but weak high
pressure remains in place. This likely keeps us dry, and low temps
will be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Trends in the model guidance have slowed the passage of a positively
tilted 500 hPa shortwave by about 12 hours from early Thursday to
late Thursday since yesterdays model runs. Surface high pressure
will build into the area from the Great Lakes on Thursday. Due to
the shortwave moving across in the afternoon and evening, a weak
surface trough will likely set up. Low levels look rather dry on
model soundings, but there may be just enough instability for a few
showers. Have bumped up pops to slight chance for now. It would not
be out of the realm of possibilities that a few stronger showers
contain small hail and lightning with a cold pocket aloft, but have
left out of the grids with this forecast package. The shortwave
passes to the east Thursday night with ridging aloft and high
pressure in control on Friday. Seasonable temperatures forecast on
Thursday with temperatures a few degrees above normal on Friday.

Models and ensembles are coming into better agreement with the large
scale pattern, an unsettled one for our area, for the upcoming
weekend. A highly amplified pattern across the CONUS with a deep
trough across the west, a deep ridge across the central states, and
an amplifying trough across the east. Low pressure develops across
the southeast on Saturday and will move off the middle atlantic
coast Saturday evening. The trough looks to be positively tilted, so
the low should pass off to the south and east of the area. However,
the northern extent of the precipitation shield is progged to
affect at least the southern half of the area late Saturday into
Saturday night. Have trended pops upward from previous forecast
but no greater than high chance across the southern half of the
area late Saturday/Saturday night. This is where the biggest
uncertainty lies within the latest models, how close to the coast
the low will get will ultimately determine the extent of the
rainfall across our area.

The low moves offshore Sunday morning, but the upper trough will
linger across the east coast. The trough is probably going to cutoff
from the main flow on Sunday with strong ridging on either side of
it. This cutoff low will then meander along the middle atlantic into
early next week with the possibility of another area of low pressure
sometime Monday into Tuesday. Cutoff lows can cause havoc in the
models with smaller scale features, so did not want to sway too far
from a model consensus forecast in the Sunday through Tuesday
period.

Temperatures may average near to slightly below average from this
weekend into early next week with the unsettled regime.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak low pressure tracks to the south of Long Island tonight. High
pressure builds in from the west into Wednesday afternoon...as
another low tracks well to the south.

VFR through the TAF period. Some light rain or sprinkles at
KJFK/KISP through 23z.

SW winds around 10 kt...except around 15 kt KISP...becoming light
and variable throughout this evening. Light ne flow develops
Wednesday morning...with seabreezes developing early Wednesday
afternoon.

 ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Wind direction could vary +/- 30 degrees from
TAF. Timing of onset of light and variable winds could be off +/-
1-2 hours. Occasional gusts to 15-20kt possible through 23z.

KLGA TAF Comments: Wind direction could vary +/- 30 degrees from
TAF. Timing of onset of light and variable winds could be off +/-
1-2 hours. Occasional gusts to 15-20kt possible through 23z.


KEWR TAF Comments: Wind direction could vary +/- 30 degrees from
TAF. Timing of onset of light and variable winds could be off +/-
1-2 hours. Occasional gusts to 15-20kt possible through 23z.


KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of onset of light and variable winds
could be off +/- 1-2 hours. Occasional gusts to 15-20kt possible
through 23z.

KHPN TAF Comments: Timing of onset of light and variable winds
could be off +/- 1-2 hours. Occasional gusts to 15-20kt possible
through 23z.

KISP TAF Comments: Timing of onset of light and variable winds
could be off +/- 1-2 hours. Occasional gusts to 15-20kt possible
through 23z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
.Wednesday afternoon/night...VFR, with afternoon/early evening
seabreezes.
.Thursday-Thursday Night...Mainly VFR. Low chance of MVFR in scattered
afternoon/evening showers.
.Friday-Friday Night...VFR.
.Saturday-Sunday...MVFR or lower possible in rain...depending on
the exact track and timing of a coastal low. E-NE Winds g20-30+
kt possible.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient and lack of significant swell will maintain
sub-sca conditions over the local waters through Saturday.

Seas on the ocean increase to SCA levels Saturday night into
Sunday as low pressure moves off the Middle Atlantic coast. Wind
gusts on the ocean may also approach 25 kt.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant rainfall expected through tonight. Dry weather is
expected Wednesday through Friday.

Rain is possible at any time from late Saturday through early next
week, but no hydrologic impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...Maloit/JMC
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
208 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A few sprinkles this evening otherwise mainly dry and mild weather
prevails. Weak high pressure provides dry weather and a warming
trend Wed through Fri. High pressure builds over the Northeast USA
Thursday and Friday. Coastal low pressure develops off the Mid
Atlantic coast this weekend and lingers there through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM Update ...

Clouds have thinned and temps have climbed into the upper 60s and
lower 70s...just a few degs warmer than previous forecast. Thus
have adjusted accordingly. This additional warming has allowed
blyr to deepen and result in more robust wind gusts up to 30 mph.

Clouds already beginning to fill back in and this trend will
continue into early this evening. Nearest rain drops over NJ and
much of this activity will track south of New England. However
after 21z/5pm and especially after 8 pm modest mid level FGEN via
convergence in the confluent zone will move across CT/RI and
possibly northward to the MA pike. If column can sufficently
moisten we may see a few very light rain bands or sprinkles across
this region 21z-03z. Otherwise much of the region remains dry and
mild into this evening. Earlier discussion below.

===================================================================

Jet induced Ci clouds continue to spill across S New England this
morning as upper lvl jet settles across the region from the N.
This jet feature also marks the movement of a shortwave rotating
around the stalled cutoff to the NE. This will lead to a mix of
sun and cloud through the morning, becoming more dense as
shra/convective activity continues to develop upstream across NY
state.

It will be these shra that will need to be monitored...as they may
begin to impact wrn portions of MA/CT this afternoon and evening.
Pops are a reflection of both global and meso-scale models.
Further E, the gradual downsloping Wly flow and increased early
day sunshine will lead to drier/well mixed lower lvls, limiting
rainfall risk through the day, although not without increasing
cloud cover.

Temperatures will reflect this difference in cloud cover/rain risk
and Wly downslope. Highs will approach the 70s across the E of MA
and RI...but remain mostly in the 60s further W.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

Tonight...

The secondary impact of increased moisture from the srn stream
will be a weak meso-low developing within a convective region in
the mid Atlantic and then shifting ENE and S of New England by the
early morning hours. How much this impacts Srn New England remains
a bit uncertain, as the initial soundings begin quite dry below H7
and take until mainly after 09Z to fully saturate. Meso-scale
models are much more robust, shifting the rain shield to the N
while global models continue to keep the bulk of precip to the
S...along with the remnant convection and LLJ.

Will continue to highlight chance pops lowering to slight chance
pops from s-n due to the uncertainty...in any case rainfall should
be light...generally less than a tenth of an inch except higher
on the Islands. For what it`s worth, ECENS/GEFS probabilities of
0.10 inches or more precip...are generally lower than 40 percent
across mainland Srn New England.

Min temps warmer than previous nights due to increased cloud
cover...mainly in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Tomorrow...
Rainfall risk dissipates through the morning outside of shra
as secondary shortwave rotates across New England from the north.
Drier air begins to spill across the region from the north. Cloud
cover to the north, combined with a weak pres gradient supporting
sea breezes will keep temps mainly in teh 60s...although a few low
70s are possible thanks to some afternoon clearing across mainly W
MA and CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Big Picture...

Two shortwaves move across New England late in the week. One moves
through on Thursday and the second on Friday.  A third shortwave
moves across from the Southwest USA late week and digs a closed low
along the East Coast over the weekend.  This closed low lingers
along the Mid Atlantic coast early next week.

Good agreement among mass fields in the long range models through
the weekend. Models diverge Sunday night and Monday bringing lower
confidence.

Upper contour heights are forecast above normal much of the period.
Expect temperatures at or a little above normal.

Details...

Wednesday night through Friday...

Surface High pressure moves across during this period with light
winds. The light flow will support sea breezes each day.

Upper shortwaves also move across on Thursday and Friday. Cross
sections show cloud-level humidity of 80-90 percent each afternoon
suggesting diurnal clouds with the daytime heating each day. The
shortwaves and lingering cold air aloft would also suggest some
potential for scattered showers from the clouds. But model QPF is
limited and mainly on Thursday. Could be scattered to isolated
showers Thursday with best chance over Western and Central MA.

The cold air aloft will allow daytime mixing to 800 mb. Temps at
that level support mid 60s to around 70 Thursday and low to mid 70s
on Friday. Dew points in the upper 30s and 40s suggest min temps in
the upper 30s to low 50s.

Saturday-Sunday-Monday...

High pressure departs Saturday morning but maintains dry air for
much of the day.

The Western shortwave mentioned earlier migrates east and generates
surface low pressure over the Ohio Valley. This moves to the Mid
Atlantic coast Saturday night. The GFS shows a low level south jet
of 50 knots preceding the surface low.  This will create low level
convergence that shifts east Saturday night.  The low level
convergence combined with briefly deep moisture would suggest a
chance of showers with the best chance over the South Coast and
islands.

The upper low lingers south of New England.  Not clear if it will be
close enough to maintain showers over our area on Sunday and Monday
or if those showers will shift to our south. High pressure builds
over Northern New England and will try to bring drier air south.  We
will maintain chance POPs along the South Coast Sunday but bring
clearing skies from north to south Sunday afternoon into Monday as
the high pressure builds in.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday Night/...

215 pm update ... high confidence with the exception on areal
coverage of very light rain/sprinkles this evening.

Thru 00z ... VFR conditions with just a low risk for a band of
very light rain or sprinkles across CT/RI northward to the MA
pike. Gusty west winds up to 25 kt will ease toward sunset.

After 00z ... VFR with any very light rain or sprinkles confined
to Southeast MA including Cape Cod and the islands. Winds become
light and from the northeast.

Wed ... VFR and light winds with afternoon seabreezes along the
coast.

Wed night ... VFR and light Northeast winds.

KBOS TAF ... High confidence on cigs and vsbys...lower confidence
on areal coverage of potential light rain/sprinkles this evening.

KBDL TAF ... High confidence on cigs and vsbys...lower confidence
on areal coverage of potential light rain/sprinkles this evening.

Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/...

Thursday... Moderate confidence. VFR. Areas of MVFR in scattered
showers. Sea breezes late morning and afternoon.

Friday... Moderate Confidence.  VFR.

Saturday and Sunday... Moderate confidence. Areas of MVFR in
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

1015 am update ... not much change from previous forecast. Dry
weather...good vsby and much less wind than yesterday. Earlier
discussion below.

====================================================================

Through tonight...High Confidence.
W-SW wind gusts remain below 25 kt most of the day today and night
tonight. Low risk for some light rainfall, especially across the S
waters overnight.

Wed...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather continues with winds shifting to the
NW.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Winds 20 knots or less and seas 3 feet or less through Saturday.
Winds Sunday Northeast increasing with 20 to 25 knot gusts on the
southern waters. Seas building 5 to 8 feet on the exposed waters
Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today ...

Not as windy today with WSW winds 15 to 20 mph inland but up to
30 mph across mainly eastern MA and RI. However sw winds off the
ocean will keep RH values up /50-60 percent/ along the South
Coast. Inland Min RH values 20 to 30 percent...but with a risk for
some showers in the afternoon.

Lower risk for showers on Wednesday...but overall RH values will
be higher. Mainly 35-45 percent with much weaker, northerly winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Worcester climate data for 5/16 was set to missing for several
fields due to an outage at the site.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/Doody
NEAR TERM...WTB/Nocera/Doody
SHORT TERM...Doody
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/Nocera/Doody
MARINE...WTB/Nocera/Doody
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
202 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
For today a weak disturbance will bring clouds and a chance of
showers to the area mainly south of Interstate 90. Mainly fair
but chilly weather will continue on Wednesday before a warming
trend later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1259 PM...forecast is still on track. Radar shows some
light rain showers over the southern tier of New York extending
east to the catskill Mountains. Radar loop shows the rain moving
pretty much due east. This fits well with forecast highest POPs
south of Interstate 90. Satellite pictures show only scattered
clouds across the Adirondacks and southern Vermont while most of
the rest of the forecast area is cloudy. There are breaks over
Litchfield County Connecticut.

Cold front with a series of low pressure systems along it was
dropping southeast from Lakes Ontario and Erie. Ahead of this
frontal boundary are clouds and scattered showers which will
mainly impact the southern half of the forecast area later today.
Areas to the north of the Greater Capital District can expect
continued partly to mostly sunny skies while areas from the
Greater Capital District south will be mostly cloudy to cloudy.
Raised high temperatures a few degrees for today as temps have
already gone past earlier forecast highs in some locations. Upper
50s in the terrain to around 70 in the valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight there will continue to be the threat of scattered
showers across the southeast third of the fa as a wave of low
pressure moves through the middle Atlantic region and off the
coast. Northern areas will remain dry tonight with partly cloudy
skies while the southeastern third of the fa will be mostly
cloudy. Lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Dry weather is expected from Wednesday through Thursday night
along with moderating temperatures as a large ridge of high
pressure builds east from the central Great Lakes Wednesday
morning to the Northeastern states by late Thursday night. Highs
on Wednesday will be in the mid 50s to upper 60s with lows
Wednesday night in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Highs on Thursday will
be in the upper 50s to upper 60s with lows Thursday night in the
upper 30s to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended forecast begins with fair and dry weather...but an
upper level trough over the East Coast may cut-off late in the
weekend into early next week with some unsettled weather returning.

Fri-Fri night...A surface anticyclone moves over NY and New England
with mostly sunny...fair..and dry weather. H850 temps rise to +7C to
+8C. High temps will be a little above normal with lower to mid 70s
in the valleys...and mid to upper 60s over the Mtns.  High pressure
moves offshore...as low pressure approaches from the TN Valley and
the Mid-Atlantic states.  Clouds increase mainly south and west of
the Mohawk Valley.  Lows will generally be in the 40s.

Saturday into Sunday...Much of NY and New England remain in a mid
and upper-level jet confluent zone.  The system to the south may
have enough synoptic lift and moisture advection for a few showers
to get into the SE Catskills...mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT late in
the day to open the weekend.  Meanwhile...a cold front will be
approaching from southeast Canada.  Most of the day should remain
dry according to the CMC guidance...latest ECMWF...and many GEF
members. The GFS is the most aggressive bringing moisture from the
south in. Mainly isolated showers are forecasted for locations south
and west of Albany during the afternoon. Highs will continue to be
in the 60s to lower 70s...despite more clouds than sunshine. Low
pressure will likely stay well south of the region near the Mid-
Atlantic coastline.  The mid and upper level trough becomes
positively tilted and shows signs of cutting off.  There is still a
slight to low chance of a showers from the SE Catskills and Hudson
River Valley eastward.  It will remain mild with lows in the 40s to
lower 50s. Our forecast remains closer to the latest ECMWF and WPC
guidance for Sunday...as low pressure moves well offshore...and a
lack of synoptic forcing within the upper trough as ridging tries to
fold in from the Great Lakes Region.  High are expected in the mid
60s to lower 70s over eastern NY and western New England.

Sunday night into Monday...Ridging from the Midwest and Great Lakes
Region builds eastward over the Northeast.  The upper trough appears
it will cut-off near the Delmarva region.  A cutoff low may impact
the area late Monday into Tuesday with some showers.  Our forecast
is mainly dry Monday...but chances of showers increase Mon night and
thereafter. Highs continue to be slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface trough will continue to gradually move southeastward
across the region and weaken through the tonight. chances for
showers will be limited to areas south of I-90. ceilings are
expected to remain vfr through the taf period...18z/wednesday.

Westerly winds 8 to 10 knots gusting into the teens. Winds will
shift to the northwest this evening then diminishing overnight.
a light north to northeast flow will develop wednesday morning.

Outlook...
Wed Night-Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sat Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sun: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
For today a weak disturbance will bring clouds and a chance of
showers. Mainly fair but chilly weather will continue on Wednesday
before a warming trend later in the week.

Relative humidity values will drop to 30 to 55 percent this
afternoon...recover to 70 to 90 percent tonight...and drop to 35
to 50 percent on Wednesday.

Winds will be west at 5 to 10 mph today...northwest at 5 to 10 mph
tonight...and northwest around 5 mph on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Little in the way of precipitation is expected across the fa
during the next 5 days with just some scattered showers with less
than a tenth of an inch of precipitation across the southeastern
third of the HSA this afternoon and tonight. Stream and River
levels are expected to continue to drop during this period.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...SND/11
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SND/11
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
100 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
For today a weak disturbance will bring clouds and a chance of
showers to the area mainly south of Interstate 90. Mainly fair
but chilly weather will continue on Wednesday before a warming
trend later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1259 PM...forecast is still on track. Radar shows some
light rain showers over the southern tier of New York extending
east to the catskill Mountains. Radar loop shows the rain moving
pretty much due east. This fits well with forecast highest POPs
south of Interstate 90. Satellite pictures show only scattered
clouds across the Adirondacks and southern Vermont while most of
the rest of the forecast area is cloudy. There are breaks over
Litchfield County Connecticut.

Cold front with a series of low pressure systems along it was
dropping southeast from Lakes Ontario and Erie. Ahead of this
frontal boundary are clouds and scattered showers which will
mainly impact the southern half of the forecast area later today.
Areas to the north of the Greater Capital District can expect
continued partly to mostly sunny skies while areas from the
Greater Capital District south will be mostly cloudy to cloudy.
Raised high temperatures a few degrees for today as temps have
already gone past earlier forecast highs in some locations. Upper
50s in the terrain to around 70 in the valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight there will continue to be the threat of scattered
showers across the southeast third of the fa as a wave of low
pressure moves through the middle Atlantic region and off the
coast. Northern areas will remain dry tonight with partly cloudy
skies while the southeastern third of the fa will be mostly
cloudy. Lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Dry weather is expected from Wednesday through Thursday night
along with moderating temperatures as a large ridge of high
pressure builds east from the central Great Lakes Wednesday
morning to the Northeastern states by late Thursday night. Highs
on Wednesday will be in the mid 50s to upper 60s with lows
Wednesday night in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Highs on Thursday will
be in the upper 50s to upper 60s with lows Thursday night in the
upper 30s to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended forecast begins with fair and dry weather...but an
upper level trough over the East Coast may cut-off late in the
weekend into early next week with some unsettled weather returning.

Fri-Fri night...A surface anticyclone moves over NY and New England
with mostly sunny...fair..and dry weather. H850 temps rise to +7C to
+8C. High temps will be a little above normal with lower to mid 70s
in the valleys...and mid to upper 60s over the Mtns.  High pressure
moves offshore...as low pressure approaches from the TN Valley and
the Mid-Atlantic states.  Clouds increase mainly south and west of
the Mohawk Valley.  Lows will generally be in the 40s.

Saturday into Sunday...Much of NY and New England remain in a mid
and upper-level jet confluent zone.  The system to the south may
have enough synoptic lift and moisture advection for a few showers
to get into the SE Catskills...mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT late in
the day to open the weekend.  Meanwhile...a cold front will be
approaching from southeast Canada.  Most of the day should remain
dry according to the CMC guidance...latest ECMWF...and many GEF
members. The GFS is the most aggressive bringing moisture from the
south in. Mainly isolated showers are forecasted for locations south
and west of Albany during the afternoon. Highs will continue to be
in the 60s to lower 70s...despite more clouds than sunshine. Low
pressure will likely stay well south of the region near the Mid-
Atlantic coastline.  The mid and upper level trough becomes
positively tilted and shows signs of cutting off.  There is still a
slight to low chance of a showers from the SE Catskills and Hudson
River Valley eastward.  It will remain mild with lows in the 40s to
lower 50s. Our forecast remains closer to the latest ECMWF and WPC
guidance for Sunday...as low pressure moves well offshore...and a
lack of synoptic forcing within the upper trough as ridging tries to
fold in from the Great Lakes Region.  High are expected in the mid
60s to lower 70s over eastern NY and western New England.

Sunday night into Monday...Ridging from the Midwest and Great Lakes
Region builds eastward over the Northeast.  The upper trough appears
it will cut-off near the Delmarva region.  A cutoff low may impact
the area late Monday into Tuesday with some showers.  Our forecast
is mainly dry Monday...but chances of showers increase Mon night and
thereafter. Highs continue to be slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A surface trough will move across the region today with an
increase in clouds and isolated to scattered showers for
locations mainly south and east of the Capital Region.

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours ending 12Z/WED for
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU. Clouds will gradually thicken and lower late
this morning into the early afternoon...with bases generally in
the 4.5-6 kft AGL range. Some VCSH groups were used from KALB-KPSF
south mainly after 18Z. This threat will continue into the early
evening.

The winds will increase from the southwest to west at 5-12
kts...and some gusts around 20 kts at KPSF. The passage of the
sfc trough will allow the winds to veer to the SW to W at 7-12 kts
in the afternoon into the early evening...before becoming light to
calm tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
For today a weak disturbance will bring clouds and a chance of
showers. Mainly fair but chilly weather will continue on Wednesday
before a warming trend later in the week.

Relative humidity values will drop to 30 to 55 percent this
afternoon...recover to 70 to 90 percent tonight...and drop to 35
to 50 percent on Wednesday.

Winds will be west at 5 to 10 mph today...northwest at 5 to 10 mph
tonight...and northwest around 5 mph on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Little in the way of precipitation is expected across the fa
during the next 5 days with just some scattered showers with less
than a tenth of an inch of precipitation across the southeastern
third of the HSA this afternoon and tonight. Stream and River
levels are expected to continue to drop during this period.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...SND/11
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...SND/11
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1254 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary approaches today. Low pressure will ride
along the front, passing to the south tonight. High pressure
builds into the area Wednesday through the end of the week. The
high moves offshore Friday night as low pressure brings unsettled
weather to the region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Clouds have diminished north of the city, but thinking is that
they`ll fill back in gradually this afternoon. Needed to bump up
high temp fcst for these areas by a few degrees. Minor upward
adjustments made to a few other areas based on latest obs and
trends.

Have lowered pops somewhat across the area. Pcpn associated with
low pressure to the south could brush the southern zones.
Meanwhile, a weak cold front sagging down from the north could
bring light rain to some northern zones by late as moisture
converges along the front. Any rainfall should be light as low
levels are fairly dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Shearing elongated upper trough passes to the north through this
time frame as sfc low pressure rides along the frontal boundary to
the south tonight, passing east Wednesday.

Any light rain tonight will depart, and generally expect dry
conditions through Wednesday. Best chance for light rain will be
along the coast and south, but will maintain chance pops
initially.

Clouds tonight give way to at least partial sunshine by Wednesday
afternoon. Expect low temps to range from the mid 40s to lower
50s, and high temps Wednesday will average in the mid to upper
60s. Model consensus followed.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Fairly high confidence forecast Wednesday through Friday across the
tri-State area as models are in good agreement on the overall
pattern. Uncertainty increases and forecast confidence decreases for
the upcoming weekend regarding possible low pressure affecting the
area.

High pressure will remain over the region Wednesday night through
Friday, providing fair and dry conditions. Temperatures will remain
near normal during this period. Highs on Thursday will climb into
the upper 60s and lower 70s, with slightly warmer temperatures on
Friday.

The next chance of unsettled weather comes over the weekend as low
pressure moving out of the middle portion of the country moves
towards the tri-state region. 00z forecast models differ on the
exact track of the low, however they all have precipitation moving
into the region late morning/early afternoon on Saturday and
continuing into Sunday, with the best chance of rain Saturday
afternoon and night. Depending on the exact track of the low, Sunday
may even be dry. Not confident enough to go dry Sunday, but will
keep chance/slight chance pops in the forecast. Chance pops continue
on Monday as an upper level low moves over the region. Temperatures
remain near normal for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak frontal system approaching the area today will be followed
by high pressure on Wednesday.

VFR today with W-SW flow 5-10 kt much of the TAF period. Winds
become more southerly late into the evening. Chances for MVFR
increase late today and tonight with the increasing chances of
rain.

There will be some gusts between 15-20 kt through the afternoon.
Winds become light and variable tonight...with a light northerly
flow going into early Wednesday.

 ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at:
http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is green...which
implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected..

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
.Wednesday Morning...Low chance of rain. MVFR possible.
.Wednesday Afternoon-Friday Night...VFR.
.Saturday...Possible light rain and MVFR or lower conditions
late.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions should remain below sca criteria today through
Wednesday as a frontal boundary approaches the waters. Low
pressure rides along this front, passing east Wednesday.

Sub-SCA conditions are likely from Wednesday night through Friday as
a weak pressure gradient is expected from high pressure over waters.
Sub-SCA conditions are likely to continue into Saturday, although
approaching low pressure from the south may increase winds and seas
to SCA levels Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Light rain is possible today and tonight, with any accumulations
under a tenth of an inch. No hydrologic impacts expected.

Dry weather is expected Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC/JM
MARINE...BC/PW
HYDROLOGY...BC/PW




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1039 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
For today a weak disturbance will bring clouds and a chance of
showers to the area mainly south of Interstate 90. Mainly fair
but chilly weather will continue on Wednesday before a warming
trend later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
forecast on track...have made minor adjustments mainly to pops and
sky cover. Guidance including the HRRR keep chances for showers
south of I-90.

A cold front with a series of low pressure systems along it was
dropping southeast from the Saint Lawrence Valley. Ahead of this
frontal boundary are clouds and scattered showers which will
mainly impact the southern half of the forecast area today with
the showers being most numerous during the afternoon hours. Areas
to the north of the Greater Capital District can expect partly to
mostly sunny skies while areas from the Greater Capital District
south will be mostly cloudy to cloudy. It will be a milder day
than Monday with highs this afternoon in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight there will continue to be the threat of scattered
showers across the southeast third of the fa as a wave of low
pressure moves through the middle Atlantic region and off the
coast. Northern areas will remain dry tonight with partly cloudy
skies while the southeastern third of the fa will be mostly
cloudy. Lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Dry weather is expected from Wednesday through Thursday night
along with moderating temperatures as a large ridge of high
pressure builds east from the central Great Lakes Wednesday
morning to the Northeastern states by late Thursday night. Highs
on Wednesday will be in the mid 50s to upper 60s with lows
Wednesday night in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Highs on Thursday will
be in the upper 50s to upper 60s with lows Thursday night in the
upper 30s to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended forecast begins with fair and dry weather...but an
upper level trough over the East Coast may cut-off late in the
weekend into early next week with some unsettled weather returning.

Fri-Fri night...A surface anticyclone moves over NY and New England
with mostly sunny...fair..and dry weather. H850 temps rise to +7C to
+8C. High temps will be a little above normal with lower to mid 70s
in the valleys...and mid to upper 60s over the Mtns.  High pressure
moves offshore...as low pressure approaches from the TN Valley and
the Mid-Atlantic states.  Clouds increase mainly south and west of
the Mohawk Valley.  Lows will generally be in the 40s.

Saturday into Sunday...Much of NY and New England remain in a mid
and upper-level jet confluent zone.  The system to the south may
have enough synoptic lift and moisture advection for a few showers
to get into the SE Catskills...mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT late in
the day to open the weekend.  Meanwhile...a cold front will be
approaching from southeast Canada.  Most of the day should remain
dry according to the CMC guidance...latest ECMWF...and many GEF
members. The GFS is the most aggressive bringing moisture from the
south in. Mainly isolated showers are forecasted for locations south
and west of Albany during the afternoon. Highs will continue to be
in the 60s to lower 70s...despite more clouds than sunshine. Low
pressure will likely stay well south of the region near the Mid-
Atlantic coastline.  The mid and upper level trough becomes
positively tilted and shows signs of cutting off.  There is still a
slight to low chance of a showers from the SE Catskills and Hudson
River Valley eastward.  It will remain mild with lows in the 40s to
lower 50s. Our forecast remains closer to the latest ECMWF and WPC
guidance for Sunday...as low pressure moves well offshore...and a
lack of synoptic forcing within the upper trough as ridging tries to
fold in from the Great Lakes Region.  High are expected in the mid
60s to lower 70s over eastern NY and western New England.

Sunday night into Monday...Ridging from the Midwest and Great Lakes
Region builds eastward over the Northeast.  The upper trough appears
it will cut-off near the Delmarva region.  A cutoff low may impact
the area late Monday into Tuesday with some showers.  Our forecast
is mainly dry Monday...but chances of showers increase Mon night and
thereafter. Highs continue to be slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A surface trough will move across the region today with an
increase in clouds and isolated to scattered showers for
locations mainly south and east of the Capital Region.

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours ending 12Z/WED for
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU. Clouds will gradually thicken and lower late
this morning into the early afternoon...with bases generally in
the 4.5-6 kft AGL range. Some VCSH groups were used from KALB-KPSF
south mainly after 18Z. This threat will continue into the early
evening.

The winds will increase from the southwest to west at 5-12
kts...and some gusts around 20 kts at KPSF. The passage of the
sfc trough will allow the winds to veer to the SW to W at 7-12 kts
in the afternoon into the early evening...before becoming light to
calm tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
For today a weak disturbance will bring clouds and a chance of
showers. Mainly fair but chilly weather will continue on Wednesday
before a warming trend later in the week.

Relative humidity values will drop to 30 to 55 percent this
afternoon...recover to 70 to 90 percent tonight...and drop to 35
to 50 percent on Wednesday.

Winds will be west at 5 to 10 mph today...northwest at 5 to 10 mph
tonight...and northwest around 5 mph on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Little in the way of precipitation is expected across the fa
during the next 5 days with just some scattered showers with less
than a tenth of an inch of precipitation across the southeastern
third of the HSA this afternoon and tonight. Stream and River
levels are expected to continue to drop during this period.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SND/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...SND/11
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
853 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Made a few tweaks to the POP and weather grids based on current
trends and HRRR model trends for precipitation today. For the
most part I upped precip chances across the south and introduced
some POPs in the central and northeast areas.

Going to take a look at temps here next and see if any updates are
needed. With significant cloud cover and cool morning temps I may
have to make some adjustments. 53

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Ifr conditions continue at this hour in the wake of a cold front
that  moved through last evening. Conditions will gradually
become vfr with time but skies will never completely clear out.
Winds will be light and from the north to northeast. Lower clouds
will begin to spread back in at most terminals late in the period
as the next system approaches.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wednesday through Thursday night.

Latest surface analysis shows the cold front that moved through the
state Tuesday evening is now located over northern Louisiana. Upper
flow has turned to the north in its wake with surface high pressure
located over the upper Midwest. Considerably drier air has spread
over the state with dew point temperatures roughly 15 degrees lower
before the fropa.

A weak impulse moving through the upper flow may kick off a shower
or two this morning over the south but otherwise conditions will
be mainly dry through tonight.

Meanwhile...upper level low pressure which is clearly visible on
moisture channel imagery this morning, will morph into more of an
open wave configuration and start to head east tonight. Upper flow
will turn southwest with moisture on the increase once again. With
the aforementioned front remaining to the south of the state, an
overrunning pattern will develop, aided by an upper impulse kicking
out of the trough.

As a result...showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over
the area Thursday and into Thursday night. Northerly flow today and
developing precipitation with extensive cloud cover Thursday will
keep temperatures below normal levels through the period.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday

An upper trough will be over the plains to begin the long term
period with a weak ridge over the Rockies and strong upper low over
the west coast. By Saturday night, the ridge builds over the plains
and the respective troughs will be along the coasts. The upper ridge
will be over Arkansas Monday night but will move east Tuesday.

Low pressure moving along a warm front will bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms Friday. Surface high pressure moves into
the area for the weekend for dry weather. Rain chances then return
Monday night through Tuesday as a short wave moves through the state.
Temperatures will generally be below normal through the period.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
225 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...
Shortwave over the Southwestern US will continue to move eastward
during the short term, eventually moving over the forecast area late
Friday. In the interim several minor impulses will likely be
ejected out ahead of the wave across Arkansas.

At the surface, the boundary to the south will move back to the
north and stall during the short term, and will set up a focal point
for rainfall with the shortwave approaching, with general rainfall
amounts likely maxing out in the 0.75 to 1.00 inch range. I have
highest POPs Thursday night thru Friday morning.

&&

.Long Term...Friday night through Tuesday...
Persistence troughing across the western third of the US will
make for a challenging forecast late in the extended periods.
Models are in good agreement in advertising a brief period of
ridging, both at the surface and aloft, for this weekend. So,
mostly clear skies with mild to warm days and cool nights expected
Friday night through Monday.

A return to southerly surface flow on Monday will allow for low
level moisture to surge back into the area.  By late Monday, a weak
pacific cold front will be approaching from the west in association
with a very weak disturbance embedded in the southwest flow aloft.
This will bring, what appears to be a decent chance, for a round of
shower and thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday.  Rain chances are
likely to continue into Wed as well. At this point, the threat for
severe weather looks minimal.

Temperatures will generally remain at or below normal through the
period. Although as moisture returns early next week, min temps will
moderate quite a bit. Afternoon temps early next week will edge into
the lower to mid 80s but with noticably increased humidity levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     51  72  55  73 /  10  20  60  40
Camden AR         56  72  59  77 /  20  60  80  50
Harrison AR       48  69  52  70 /  10  20  50  30
Hot Springs AR    55  69  58  74 /  20  50  70  40
Little Rock   AR  56  73  59  74 /  10  40  80  40
Monticello AR     57  74  61  76 /  20  40  80  50
Mount Ida AR      53  69  55  74 /  20  50  70  30
Mountain Home AR  49  71  53  72 /  10  20  60  30
Newport AR        53  73  57  74 /  10  20  70  40
Pine Bluff AR     55  72  60  74 /  10  40  80  50
Russellville AR   54  72  56  75 /  10  40  60  30
Searcy AR         52  72  57  73 /  10  20  70  50
Stuttgart AR      56  72  60  74 /  10  30  80  50
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...53 / Long Term...32




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
853 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Made a few tweaks to the POP and weather grids based on current
trends and HRRR model trends for precipitation today. For the
most part I upped precip chances across the south and introduced
some POPs in the central and northeast areas.

Going to take a look at temps here next and see if any updates are
needed. With significant cloud cover and cool morning temps I may
have to make some adjustments. 53

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Ifr conditions continue at this hour in the wake of a cold front
that  moved through last evening. Conditions will gradually
become vfr with time but skies will never completely clear out.
Winds will be light and from the north to northeast. Lower clouds
will begin to spread back in at most terminals late in the period
as the next system approaches.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wednesday through Thursday night.

Latest surface analysis shows the cold front that moved through the
state Tuesday evening is now located over northern Louisiana. Upper
flow has turned to the north in its wake with surface high pressure
located over the upper Midwest. Considerably drier air has spread
over the state with dew point temperatures roughly 15 degrees lower
before the fropa.

A weak impulse moving through the upper flow may kick off a shower
or two this morning over the south but otherwise conditions will
be mainly dry through tonight.

Meanwhile...upper level low pressure which is clearly visible on
moisture channel imagery this morning, will morph into more of an
open wave configuration and start to head east tonight. Upper flow
will turn southwest with moisture on the increase once again. With
the aforementioned front remaining to the south of the state, an
overrunning pattern will develop, aided by an upper impulse kicking
out of the trough.

As a result...showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over
the area Thursday and into Thursday night. Northerly flow today and
developing precipitation with extensive cloud cover Thursday will
keep temperatures below normal levels through the period.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday

An upper trough will be over the plains to begin the long term
period with a weak ridge over the Rockies and strong upper low over
the west coast. By Saturday night, the ridge builds over the plains
and the respective troughs will be along the coasts. The upper ridge
will be over Arkansas Monday night but will move east Tuesday.

Low pressure moving along a warm front will bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms Friday. Surface high pressure moves into
the area for the weekend for dry weather. Rain chances then return
Monday night through Tuesday as a short wave moves through the state.
Temperatures will generally be below normal through the period.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$