Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/13/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS EUREKA CA

1140 AM PDT WED MAY 11 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK/WEEKEND, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEL NORTE AND TRINITY COUNTIES. HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA
BY MONDAY, WITH RIDGING AND DRY ADVECTION RETURNING TO THE REGION
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...
THE PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORE THE STORM IS ONE WAY TO SUM UP THE
WEATHER THIS WEEK. CURRENTLY, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS
ACROSS THE WEST COAST, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SET UP JUST OFFSHORE, ALLOWING WARM
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE (SEE TABLE BELOW).

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY, CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN TO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
JET STREAMS POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE,
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTER HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA (OR MAINLY EAST OF A GASQUET TO GArBERVILLE
LINE). DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED IN THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS, COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING JET STREAKS, WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO BUILD
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SOUNDING
DATA, SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG, MID-LEVEL (700-500MB) LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 DEGREES C/KM, 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30 KNOTS, TOTAL
TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S, AND BOTH THE LIFTED/SHOWALTER INDICIES
AROUND -3 ALL SUGGEST SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG
(POSSIBLY SEVERE). THIS IS SOMETHING WE`LL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION BY
MONDAY, WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY ADVECTION PUTTING THE
KIBOSH TO OUR RAIN CHANCES AS WE BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. /PD

.RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...

CRESCENT CITY...FORECAST HIGH...69 DEGREES. THE RECORD IS 68 DEGREES
(1959).

EUREKA...FORECAST HIGH..67 DEGREES. THE RECORD HIGH IS 71 DEGREES
(1960).

UKIAH...FORECAST HIGH...87 DEGREES. THE RECORD HIGH IS 97 DEGREES
(1987).

.UPDATED AVIATION...Stratus and fog has been spreading northward
around cape mendocino. IFR conditions will periodically push into
the coastal air terminals through the afternoon hours. More
widespread ifr conditions will develop tonight as a shallow marine
layer takes hold at the coast. There is a chance for low ifr
conditions with vsbys dropping to 1/2sm or less in FOG tonight into
thu morning...however confidence is not high at this time.

.MARINE...NO MARINE HAZARDS FOR THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH START OF THE WEEKEND. EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUOYS FROM POINT SAINT GEORGE DOWN TO CAPE MENDOCINO ARE
REPORTING WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 6 FEET. THE PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD IS
ABOUT 8 FEET. FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...THE WAVE PERIOD IS
ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 7 FEET...THUS MAKING THE WAVES SLIGHTLY
STEEP. THE WAVE HEIGHT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING TODAY
INTOTONIGHT...DOWN TO ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT...EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING,
AND THIS WILL BRING IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AREA WILL
REMAIN WEAK THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEA STATES.
UTILIZE RUC13 IN THE NEAR TERM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
TRANSITION TO A BLEND OF HI-RES ARW AND HI-RES NMM MODELS TONIGHT.
UTILIZED A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/GEM/OFFICIAL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE. /RCL

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

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FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS EUREKA CA

608 AM PDT WED MAY 11 2016

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY, CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN TO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
JET STREAMS POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE,
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTER HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA (OR MAINLY EAST OF A GASQUET TO GABERVILLE
LINE). DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED IN THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS, COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING JET STREAKS, WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO BUILD
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SOUNDING
DATA, SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG, MID-LEVEL (700-500MB) LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 DEGREES C/KM, 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30 KNOTS, TOTAL
TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S, AND BOTH THE LIFTED/SHOWALTER INDICIES
AROUND -3 ALL SUGGEST SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG
(POSSIBLY SEVERE). THIS IS SOMETHING WE`LL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION BY
MONDAY, WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY ADVECTION PUTTING THE
KIBOSH TO OUR RAIN CHANCES AS WE BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. /PD

.RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...

CRESCENT CITY...FORECAST HIGH...69 DEGREES. THE RECORD IS 68 DEGREES
(1959).

EUREKA...FORECAST HIGH..67 DEGREES. THE RECORD HIGH IS 71 DEGREES
(1960).

UKIAH...FORECAST HIGH...87 DEGREES. THE RECORD HIGH IS 97 DEGREES
(1987).

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
DO EXPECT THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH WEAK
FLOW...THERE IS NOT MUCH OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT TO KEEP THE
MARINE STRATUS FROM CREEPING BACK INTO THE AREA. THUS...PUT IN
LOWER FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS FOR CRESCENT CITY AND ARCATA AIRPORTS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. /RCL

.MARINE...NO MARINE HAZARDS FOR THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH START OF THE WEEKEND. EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUOYS FROM POINT SAINT GEORGE DOWN TO CAPE MENDOCINO
AREREPORTING WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 6 FEET. THE PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD
ISABOUT 8 FEET. FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...THE WAVE PERIOD
ISESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 7 FEET...THUS MAKING THE WAVES
SLIGHTLYSTEEP. THE WAVE HEIGHT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING TODAY
INTOTONIGHT...DOWN TO ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET. WITH A WEAK
PRESSUREGRADIENT...EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
MORNING. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS
MORNING, AND THIS WILL BRING IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
AREA WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
SEA STATES. UTILIZE RUC13 IN THE NEAR TERM THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION TO A BLEND OF HI-RES ARW AND HI-RES NMM
MODELS TONIGHT. UTILIZED A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/GEM/OFFICIAL FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT
AVERAGE. /RCL

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

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FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS EUREKA CA

530 AM PDT WED MAY 11 2016

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY, CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN TO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
JET STREAMS POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE,
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTER HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA (OR MAINLY EAST OF A GASQUET TO GABERVILLE
LINE). DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED IN THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS, COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING JET STREAKS, WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO BUILD
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SOUNDING
DATA, SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG, MID-LEVEL (700-500MB) LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 DEGREES C/KM, 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30 KNOTS, TOTAL
TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S, AND BOTH THE LIFTED/SHOWALTER INDICIES
AROUND -3 ALL SUGGEST SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG
(POSSIBLY SEVERE). THIS IS SOMETHING WE`LL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION BY
MONDAY, WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY ADVECTION PUTTING THE
KIBOSH TO OUR RAIN CHANCES AS WE BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. /PD

.RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...

LOCATION: FORECAST: RECORD:
CRESENT CITY 69 68 (1959)
EUREKA6771 (1960)
UKIAH8797 (1987)

.MARINE...NO MARINE HAZARDS FOR THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT WINDS AND LOWSEAS EXPECTED THROUGH START OF THE WEEKEND. EARLY THISMORNING...BUOYS FROM POINT SAINT GEORGE DOWN TO CAPE MENDOCINO AREREPORTING WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 6 FEET. THE PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD ISABOUT 8 FEET. FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...THE WAVE PERIOD ISESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 7 FEET...THUS MAKING THE WAVES SLIGHTLYSTEEP. THE WAVE HEIGHT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING TODAY INTOTONIGHT...DOWN TO ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET. WITH A WEAK PRESSUREGRADIENT...EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING,
AND THIS WILL BRING IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AREA WILL
REMAIN WEAK THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEA STATES.
UTILIZE RUC13 IN THE NEAR TERM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
TRANSITION TO A BLEND OF HI-RES ARW AND HI-RES NMM MODELS TONIGHT.
UTILIZE A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/GEM/OFFICIAL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE. /RCL

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS EUREKA CA

522 AM PDT WED MAY 11 2016

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY, CROSSING THE REGION DURING
THE WEEKEND. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO COME IN TO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAMS POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT
THE SURFACE, SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (OR MAINLY EAST OF A GASQUET
TO GABERVILLE LINE). DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS, COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING JET STREAKS WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO BUILD FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. TAKING A CLOSER
LOOK AT THE SOUNDING DATA, SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG, MID-LEVEL
(700-500MB) LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEGREES C/KM, AND 6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES NEAR 30 KNOTS SUGGEST, TOTAL TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S, AND
BOTH THE LIFTED/SHOWALTER INDICIES AROUND -3 ALL SUGGEST SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG (POSSIBLY SEVERE). THIS IS
SOMETHING WE`LL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION BY
MONDAY, WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY ADVECTION PUTTING THE
KIBOSH TO OUR RAIN CHANCES AS WE BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. /PD

.RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...

LOCATION: FORECAST: RECORD:
CRESENT CITY 69 68 (1959)
EUREKA6771 (1960)
UKIAH8797 (1987)

.MARINE...NO MARINE HAZARDS FOR THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT WINDS AND LOWSEAS EXPECTED THROUGH START OF THE WEEKEND. EARLY THISMORNING...BUOYS FROM POINT SAINT GEORGE DOWN TO CAPE MENDOCINO AREREPORTING WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 6 FEET. THE PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD ISABOUT 8 FEET. FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...THE WAVE PERIOD ISESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 7 FEET...THUS MAKING THE WAVES SLIGHTLYSTEEP. THE WAVE HEIGHT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING TODAY INTOTONIGHT...DOWN TO ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET. WITH A WEAK PRESSUREGRADIENT...EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING,
AND THIS WILL BRING IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AREA WILL
REMAIN WEAK THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEA STATES.
UTILIZE RUC13 IN THE NEAR TERM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
TRANSITION TO A BLEND OF HI-RES ARW AND HI-RES NMM MODELS TONIGHT.
UTILIZE A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/GEM/OFFICIAL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE. /RCL

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1222 AM MDT WED MAY 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 724 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING
AND EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA. GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY...STORMS WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER THAN THE STORMS THAT WENT THROUGH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME PERIOD. /HODANISH

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

AN UPR TROF WL BE AFFECTING THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED. ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT WL DROP SOUTH INTO SERN CO
THIS EVENING...BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MSTR. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT AND UNTIL THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MSTR OVR THE SERN
PLAINS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE SOME WIDESPREAD STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER VSBYS AND MAYBE EVEN
SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE. AFTER ABOUT 09Z BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
PCPN ENDING ACRS THE FORECAST AREA...OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME DRIZZLE.

THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE MORNING HOURS
ON WED...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD PCPN COULD FORM IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS ALONG THE ERN MTNS. IN THE AFTERNOON...UPSLOPE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE PCPN ALONG THE ERN MTNS...THE PALMER DVD AND
PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SRN BORDER. THE NAM SHOWS LITTLE
PCPN OVR THE FAR ERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR ALL THE SERN PLAINS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE ERN MTNS COULD
SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND CONTDVD ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY ISOLD PCPN CHANCES. TEMPS ON WED WL BE
COOLER AND GENERALLY A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN OVER
COLORADO...SURFACE WINDS BACK TO WESTERLY. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN WITH WARM...MOSTLY DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S THURSDAY...WARMING
INTO THE MID 70S/LOWER 80S FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AS THIS CLOSED LOW MOVES SLOWLY
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN UT/NORTHERN CO AS AN OPEN WAVE. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND MOVES THROUGH UT/CO
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS
AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS OF COLORADO...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EACH
AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STARK

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM MDT WED MAY 11 2016

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
AFFECTING KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH 12Z. CIGS WILL MAINLY STAY
VFR...BUT COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS ALONG
WITH VFR TO BRIEF MVFR CIGS. -KT

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...KT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
936 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will approach the region from the south tonight. A
cold or occluded front will track across the region, from west to
east, Friday afternoon. Another cold front will cross the area
late on Saturday. An area of low pressure will strengthen across
New England over the weekend and move into southeast Canada by
Sunday. A third cold front will approach the region from the north
on Monday. High pressure is forecast to return to the area on
Tuesday. A warm front will lift north through the region on
Wednesday. A fourth cold front will track through the mid-atlantic
on Thursday.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A light southeasterly surface flow will continue to draw moisture
into our region overnight. Dew point readings were already in the
50s and lower 60s in much of our forecast area this evening.
However, there was a pocket of dry air in parts of northern and
central New Jersey where dew point readings were in the 30s and
40s.

The increasing moisture is expected to cause low clouds and
patchy fog to develop in our region overnight. Also, showers ahead
of the cold front approaching from the west should move into our
western counties toward morning.

Low temperatures are anticipated to favor the 55 to 60 degree
range.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Widespread showers across the area precede and accompany a cold
front, especially 15z-19z with a southerly wind 5 to 15 mph.
showers may quit completely during early or mid afternoon with
possible heating thereafter generating a shower or a thunderstorm
toward days end, especially e PA and the Delmarva. High temps near
normal. Pwat is up near 1.65 inches so any showers could be
moderate to heavy. For now we fcst the heaviest rain during the
morning per multimodels and WPC guidance. Winds behind the cold
front will likely become gusty from the west around 15 to 20 mph
late in the day. Isolated rainfall amounts of an inch easily
possible.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Overview, an active, progressive period to come. For reference,
normal temperature values for Philadelphia are in the low 70s and
low 50s. The period starts with the cold front pushing off the
coast Friday evening. A second cold front will push through the
region on Saturday later in the day. A good gradient sets up for
Sunday with surface low pressure near Maine and high pressure
building in from the southwest. Another cold front will approach
the region from the north on Monday. High pressure will be the
rule on Tuesday. A warm front will be in play on Wednesday,
followed by a cold frontal passage on Thursday.

Friday night, Precipitation should be well off the coast by late
evening. Prior to this, instability and pw`s around 1.5 inches
could produce some decent rains in thunderstorms. Behind the
front, a period of gusty winds up to 30 mph can be expected. Winds
will relax overnight. At or above normal overnight lows expected.

Saturday and Saturday night, A second cold front will move across
the area on Saturday, mainly during the afternoon hours.
Instability redevelops and a favorable H5 jet tracks over the
region. For this reason, SPC has included much of the area in
marginal. Winds will pick up late morning and early afternoon.
Once again, the region could see gusty winds in the 25 to 30 mph
range. Dry weather will return overnight Saturday night.
Temperatures on Saturday will be at or above normal. They will be
below normal Saturday night.

Sunday and Sunday night, Another breezy day in store as low
pressure strengthens to our north and high pressure builds to our
southwest. Some light sprinkles of light showers will be possible
across our north and west zones as a short wave tracks through
aloft and the surface flow remains strong out of the NW. Below
normal temperatures are expected Sunday and Sunday night. Frost is
not out of the question across NW NJ and the southern Poconos.

Monday and Monday night, Another cold front is forecast to
approach the region from the north. The front looks moisture
starved. It doesn`t look like precipitation, if any, will sink
further south than our north and west zones. Another gusty day
with winds approaching 30 mph. Dry weather will continue into
Monday night as high pressure builds briefly builds across the
area. Temperatures are still expected to be below normal, but will
rebound some from Sunday and Sunday night.

Tuesday and Tuesday night, High pressure is forecast to be in
control on Tuesday, but weaken and yield to an approaching warm
front on Tuesday night. POPS are back in the forecast on Tuesday
night. Temperatures are expected to be approaching normal levels.

Wednesday into Thursday, Unsettled with both a warm front and
cold frontal passage in play. POPS are painted in the grids, with
some thunder included. Normal temperatures expected, but
confidence is low because the extent of cloud cover will play a
role. In addition, where the warm front sets up will also be a
factor.

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Conditions were generally in the VFR category this evening.
However, increasing moisture on a light southeast wind will cause
low clouds and patchy fog to develop. Conditions are forecast to
drop through the MVFR category to IFR overnight. Rain showers will
begin to move into our region from the west toward morning.

Generally IFR conditions are expected on Friday morning with rain
showers and patchy fog. Conditions may begin to improve to MVFR
for the afternoon as the light southeast wind veer toward the
south and southwest. However, there will continue to be showers
and possibly a few thunderstorms.

A cold front is forecast to pass across our TAF sites from west
to east between about 2000z and 2200z on Friday. The wind is
anticipated to shift to the west and northwest at speeds around 8
to 12 knots and conditions should improve to VFR.

OUTLOOK...
Friday night...VFR expected behind the cold front. Gusty
northwest winds possible in the evening along with some showers.

Saturday...VFR becoming MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms.
Gusty southwest winds in the 20-25 KT range ahead of the cold
front early, and becoming west-northwest behind it.

Saturday night...VFR expected.

Sunday...Generally VFR. Scattered showers possible during the day
for KABE and KRDG. Gusty west-northwest winds everywhere. 25-30
KTS possible.

Sunday night...VFR expected.

Monday...VFR with gusty west to northwest winds 25-30 knots
possible.

Monday night and Tuesday...VFR expected.

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below small craft advisory
conditions through Friday. However, fog may become a marine hazard
late tonight and especially Friday morning. (dew points rising to
or above the sst Friday morning on southerly flow).

Seas are expected to stay around 2 feet or less with a persistent
southeast swell around 8-9 seconds. Winds should remain near or
below 15 kt through tonight, though direction will shift from east
southeast to southerly overnight as a warm front lifts through the
region. winds on Friday southerly, shifting to west late in the
day.

OUTLOOK...
Friday night and Saturday, Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions
expected at this time. But keep a close on eye on the forecast
with a cold front expected in the afternoon. Thunderstorms are
possible. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be strongest right
along the beaches where mixing will be the best. With water temps
where they are, less wind is expected further off the beach.

Saturday night through Monday, Although precipitation should be
minimal, it should be an active period with Small Craft Advisory
conditions through the period.

Tuesday, Sub SCA conditions expected. Showers possible.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

Synopsis...Kruzdlo
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...Kruzdlo
Aviation...Iovino/Kruzdlo
Marine...Drag/Kruzdlo

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
618 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An active upcoming seven day period. A warm front will approach
the region from the south tonight. A cold or occluded front will
track across the region, from west to east, Friday afternoon.
Another cold front will cross the area late on Saturday. An area
of low pressure will strengthen across New England over the
weekend and move into southeast Canada by Sunday. A third cold
front will approach the region from the north on Monday. High
pressure is forecast to return to the area on Tuesday. A warm
front will lift north through the region on Wednesday. A fourth
cold front will track through the mid-atlantic on Thursday.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Tonight...skies may be partly cloudy or clear in NJ to start,
while elsewhere...partly cloudy to cloudy. Eventually, it becomes
cloud everywhere late. Mild with a light south wind. Lows 5 to 10f
above normal most of the area. Showers from the west may spill
into the forecast area, reaching I-95 toward 6AM or 7AM.

If there is to be fog...and I don`t think there will be much...it
should be mostly e Pa and e MD. for now have patchy fog in the
fcst, mainly late excepting se DE where fog may be developing now.

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR becoming MVFR conditions in st/fog/scattered
showers late. patchy ifr conditions possible late. Light south
wind.

Friday...Showers (some of them moderate to heavy) precede and
accompany a cold frontal passage. Isolated or scattered
thunderstorms expected, especially midday. MVFR or IFR CIGS and
VSBYS. Gusty west-northwest winds behind the front of 15-20 knots
with improving conditions late in the day.

OUTLOOK...
Friday night...VFR expected behind the cold front. Gusty
northwest winds possible in the evening along with some showers.

Saturday...VFR becoming MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms.
Gusty southwest winds in the 20-25 KT range ahead of the cold
front early, and becoming west-northwest behind it.

Saturday night...VFR expected.

Sunday...Generally VFR. Scattered showers possible during the day
for KABE and KRDG. Gusty west-northwest winds everywhere. 25-30
KTS possible.

Sunday night...VFR expected.

Monday...VFR with gusty west to northwest winds 25-30 knots
possible.

Monday night and Tuesday...VFR expected.

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below small craft advisory
conditions through Friday. However, fog may become a marine hazard
late tonight and especially Friday morning. (dewpoints rising to
or above the sst Friday morning on southerly flow).

Saturday night through Monday, Although precipitation should be
minimal, it should be an active period with Small Craft Advisory
conditions through the period.

Tuesday, Sub SCA conditions expected. Showers possible.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

Synopsis...Kruzdlo
Near Term...Drag
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...Kruzdlo
Aviation...Drag/Kruzdlo
Marine...Drag/Kruzdlo

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
333 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Late today...skies are clearing in s NJ as of 3 PM and may clear a
bit in DE/e MD and E PA.

Tonight...skies may be partly cloudy or clear in NJ to start,
while elsewhere...partly cloudy to cloudy. Eventually, it becomes
cloud everywhere late. Mild with a light south wind. Lows 5 to 10f
above normal most of the area. Showers from the west may spill into
the forecast area, reaching I-95 toward 6AM or 7AM.

If there is to be fog...and I don`t think there will be much...it
should be mostly e Pa and e MD. for now have patchy fog in the
fcst, mainly late excepting se DE where fog may be developing now.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Widespread showers across the area precede and accompany a cold
front, especially 15z-19z with a southerly wind 5 to 15 mph.
showers may quit completely during early or mid afternoon with
possible heating thereafter generating a shower or a thunderstorm
toward days end, especially e PA and the Delmarva. High temps near
normal. Pwat is up near 1.65 inches so any showers could be moderate
to heavy. For now we fcst the heaviest rain during the morning per
multimodels and WPC guidance. Winds behind the cold front will
likely become gusty from the west around 15 to 20 mph late in the
day. Isolated rainfall amounts of an inch easily possible.

Friday night, Precipitation should be well off the coast by late
evening. Prior to this, instability and pw`s around 1.5 inches could
produce some decent rains in thunderstorms. Behind the front, a
period of gusty winds up to 30 mph can be expected. Winds will relax
overnight. At or above normal overnight lows expected.

Saturday and Saturday night, A second cold front will move across
the area on Saturday, mainly during the afternoon hours. Instability
redevelops and a favorable H5 jet tracks over the region. For this
reason, SPC has included much of the area in marginal. Winds will
pick up late morning and early afternoon. Once again, the region
could see gusty winds in the 25 to 30 mph range. Dry weather will
return overnight Saturday night. Temperatures on Saturday will be at
or above normal. They will be below normal Saturday night.

Sunday and Sunday night, Another breezy day in store as low pressure
strengthens to our north and high pressure builds to our southwest.
Some light sprinkles of light showers will be possible across our
north and west zones as a short wave tracks through aloft and the
surface flow remains strong out of the NW. Below normal temperatures
are expected Sunday and Sunday night. Frost is not out of the
question across NW NJ and the southern Poconos.

Monday and Monday night, Another cold front is forecast to approach
the region from the north. The front looks moisture starved. It
doesn`t look like precipitation, if any, will sink further south
than our north and west zones. Another gusty day with winds
approaching 30 mph. Dry weather will continue into Monday night as
high pressure builds briefly builds across the area. Temperatures
are still expected to be below normal, but will rebound some from
Sunday and Sunday night.

Wednesday into Thursday, Unsettled with both a warm front and cold
frontal passage in play. POPS are painted in the grids, with some
thunder included. Normal temperatures expected, but confidence is
low because the extent of cloud cover will play a role. In addition,
where the warm front sets up will also be a factor.

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Remainder of today...VFR sct-bkn aoa 3500 ft except patchy cigs near
2500 or 3000ft vcnty KILG, KMIV AND KRDG. A mostly light east to
southeast wind.

Tonight...VFR becoming MVFR conditions in st/fog/scattered showers
late. patchy ifr conditions possible late. Light south wind.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night...VFR expected behind the cold front. Gusty northwest
winds possible in the evening along with some showers.

Saturday...VFR becoming MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms. Gusty
southwest winds in the 20-25 KT range ahead of the cold front
early, and becoming west-northwest behind it.

Saturday night...VFR expected.

Sunday...Generally VFR. Scattered showers possible during the day
for KABE and KRDG. Gusty west-northwest winds everywhere. 25-30 KTS
possible.

Sunday night...VFR expected.

Monday...VFR with gusty west to northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.

Monday night and Tuesday...VFR expected.

.MARINE...

Winds and seas should remain below small craft advisory conditions
through Friday. However, fog may become a marine hazard late tonight
and especially Friday morning. (dewpoints rising to or above the
sst Friday morning on southerly flow).

OUTLOOK...

Friday night and Saturday, Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions
expected at this time. But keep a close on eye on the forecast with
a cold front expected in the afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be strongest right along the
beaches where mixing will be the best. With water temps where they
are, less wind is expected further off the beach.

Saturday night through Monday, Although precipitation should be
minimal, it should be an active period with Small Craft Advisory
conditions through the period.

Tuesday, Sub SCA conditions expected. Showers possible.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

$$
Synopsis...Kruzdlo
Near Term...Drag
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...Kruzdlo
Aviation...Drag/Kruzdlo
Marine...Drag/Kruzdlo

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
207 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore of New England today, while a warm
front remains to our south. The warm front will lift northward across
our area overnight, followed by a west to east cold frontal passage
Friday afternoon. Another cold front will cross the area late on
Saturday. An area of low pressure will strengthen across New
England over the weekend and move into southeast Canada through
Monday. Another cold front or surface trough will cross the area
Sunday, followed by yet another one on Monday. High pressure is
forecast to return to the area late Monday into early Tuesday. An
area of low pressure is expected to lift a warm front across the
area Tuesday night into Wednesday, followed by a cold front
Wednesday night into Thursday.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM ESTF and 140 PM rereview: A nice day in progress with
clouds trying to spread up to KABE and KTTN but all those clouds
from s NJ through PHL and KABE newd should thin out and dissipate
later today. warmest temps near 80F near and north of I-78, mainly
KABE to KSMQ and KFWN. Light, mainly south to southeast wind.

Yesterdays rain via DEOS and CoCoRAHS reports deposited 0.7 to
1.2 inches in Sussex County of southern DE.

Tonight...skies may be partly cloudy or clear in NJ to start,
while elsewhere...partly cloudy to cloudy. Eventually, it becomes
cloud everywhere late. Mild with a light south wind. Lows 5 to
10f above normal most of the area. Showers from the west may spill
into the forecast area, reaching I-95 toward 6 or 7AM.

If there is to be fog...and I don`t think there will be much...it
should be mostly e Pa and e MD.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Widespread showers across the area precede and accompany a cold
front, especially 15z-19z with a southerly wind 5 to 15 mph.
showers may quit completely during early or mid afternoon with
possible heating thereafter generating a shower or a thunderstorm
toward days end, especially e PA and the Delmarva. High temps near
normal. Pwat is up near 1.65 inches so any showers could be
moderate to heavy. Winds behind the cold front will likely become
gusty around 15 to 20 mph.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Drier weather is expected overnight Friday behind the cold front.

On Saturday, another cold front will move across the area. There
will remain some instability across the area, although PW values
are forecast to be less. However, the dynamics with Saturday`s
front may be stronger with a stronger jet aloft. So while PW
values may be less, there could still be a period of moderate to
heavy rainfall. Gusty winds are expected behind the frontal
passage with gusts of 25 to 30 mph expected. Dry weather will
return overnight Saturday night, along with cooler temperatures.
An area of low pressure will strengthen to our north, while high
pressure begins to build to our west. This will keep a steady
breeze across the area overnight.

Low pressure will remain to our north on Sunday, with another
frontal boundary or surface trough expected to cross the area
later in the day. While PW values drop below 0.5 inches, which
would normally would indicate a precipitation free forecast, there
remains steep low level lapse rates, along with some higher RH
values in the low-mid levels. As a short wave/vorticity impulse
slides across the area, there could be some light sprinkles make
their way into our area during the day within the northwest flow.
Winds during the day could again gust 25 to 30 mph.

Yet another frontal boundary/surface trough is expected on
Monday, however, with limited lapse rates and moisture, no
precipitation is expected. However, an increase in clouds cover
and gusty afternoon winds of 25 to 30 mph are once again expected.
Dry weather will continue into Monday night as high pressure
builds briefly builds across the area.

From Tuesday through Wednesday, there are some timing differences
with the next weather system. An area of low pressure is forecast
to eventually lift through the Ohio River Valley and into New
England, while lifting a warm front across the area, then pushing
a cold front across the area. The GFS is faster than the ECMWF,
bring the warm front through Tuesday night/Wednesday and the cold
front Wednesday night/Thursday. The ECMWF is about 12-24 hours
slower. For now, we will continue with a chance of showers Tuesday
through Wednesday. The best probabilities will be focused around
individual short wave/vorticity impulses. There could be some
instability ahead of the cold front, so we`ve included thunder in
the Wednesday forecast for now.

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

rest of TODAY...VFR sct-bkn aoa 3500 ft except patchy cigs near 2500
or 3000ft vcnty KILG, KMIV AND KRDG. A mostly light east to southeast
wind.

Tonight...VFR becoming MVFR conds in st/fog/scattered showers late.
Light south wind.

Friday...Showers precede and accompany a cold frontal passage. Isolated
thunderstorms possible (thunderstorms if any primarily e PA, and the
Delmarva). MVFR or IFR CIGS and VSBYS. Gusty west-northwest winds
behind the front of 15-20 knots.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night...VFR expected.

Saturday...Another cold frontal passage with additional showers and
thunderstorms which could lower CIGS and VSBYS to MVFR or IFR again.
Gusty southwest winds 20-25 knots early, becoming west-northwest
behind the cold front.

Saturday...VFR expected.

Sunday...Generally VFR. Scattered showers possible during the day.
Gusty west-northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.

Sunday night...VFR expected.

Monday...VFR with gusty west to northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below small craft advisory conditions
through Friday. however, fog may become a marine hazard Friday morning.
Seas are expected to stay around 2 feet or less with a persistent
southeast swell around 8-9 seconds. Winds should remain near or below
15 kt through tonight, though direction will shift from east southeast
to southerly overnight as a warm front lifts through the region.
Winds on Friday southerly, shifting to west late in the day.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night-Saturday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions
expected. Cold frontal passage Saturday, which could cause winds
to gust around 20 knots at times.

Saturday night-Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely
through the period with cold frontal passages Sunday and Monday.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

$$
Synopsis...Drag/Robertson
Near Term...Drag
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Drag/Robertson 206P
Marine...Drag/Robertson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
156 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

Yesterdays rain via DEOS and CoCoRAHS reports deposited 0.7 to
1.2 inches in Sussex County of southern DE.

Tonight...skies may be partly cloudy or clear in NJ to start,
while elsewhere...partly cloudy to cloudy. Eventually, it becomes
cloud everywhere late. Mild with a light south wind. Lows 5 to
10f above normal most of the area. Showers from the west may spill
into the forecast area, reaching I-95 toward 6 or 7AM.

If there is to be fog...and I don`t think there will be much...it
should be mostly e Pa and e MD.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Drier weather is expected overnight Friday behind the cold front.

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

rest of TODAY...VFR sct-bkn aoa 3500 ft. A mostly light east to
southeast wind.

Tonight...VFR becoming MVFR conds in st/fog/scattered showers late.
Light south wind.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night...VFR expected.

Saturday...VFR expected.

Sunday...Generally VFR. Scattered showers possible during the day.
Gusty west-northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.

Sunday night...VFR expected.

Monday...VFR with gusty west to northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night-Saturday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions
expected. Cold frontal passage Saturday, which could cause winds
to gust around 20 knots at times.

Saturday night-Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely
through the period with cold frontal passages Sunday and Monday.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

$$
Synopsis...Drag/Robertson
Near Term...Drag 157PM
Short Term...Drag 157PM
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Drag/Robertson 157PM
Marine...Drag/Robertson 157PM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1040 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 am ESTF: Fog has thinned and dissipated except parts of the
Delmarva but overall the fog does not look to be substantial. A
very nice day is in progress..much nicer than I anticipated
yesterday. Temperatures were raised several degrees and won`t be
surprised to see around 80F NNJ and e central PA. Light wind will
be mostly east to southeast. Skycover...sc cloudiness should
increase with heating and cirrus is also expected this afternoon.

Yesterdays rain by the way via DEOS and CoCoRAHS reports deposited
0.7 to 1.2 inches in Sussex County of southern DE.

Tonight...no change to mid shift forecast. Showers should arrive
toward dawn in e PA. If there is to be fog...and I don`t think
there will be much...it should be mostly e Pa and e MD.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A cold front will move across the area from west to east on Friday.
There will be some instability across the area, and precipitable
water values increase across the area to around 1.5 inches. Therefore
there will be the chance for thunderstorms to accompany the rainfall
that is likely. Some showers and thunderstorms could produce a period
of moderate to heavy rainfall. Winds behind the front will likely
become gusty around 15 to 20 mph.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Drier weather is expected overnight Friday behind the cold front.

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

TODAY...VFR sct-bkn aoa 3500 ft, though patches of cigs 1500-2500 ft
through 18z kilg, kmiv and kacy. A mostly light east to southeast
wind.

Tonight...VFR becoming MVFR conds in st/fog/scattered showers late.
Light south wind.

Friday...Showers and thunderstorms possible with a cold frontal
passage. MVFR or IFR CIGS and VSBYS. Gusty west-northwest winds
behind the front of 15-20 knots.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night...VFR expected.

Saturday...VFR expected.

Sunday...Generally VFR. Scattered showers possible during the day.
Gusty west-northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.

Sunday night...VFR expected.

Monday...VFR with gusty west to northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below small craft advisory conditions
through Friday. Seas are expected to stay around 2 feet or less
with a persistent southeast swell around 8-9 seconds. Winds should
remain near or below 15 kt through tonight, though direction will
shift from easterly or southeasterly today and this evening to
southerly overnight as a warm front lifts through the region.
Winds on Friday southerly, shifting to west late in the day.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night-Saturday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions
expected. Cold frontal passage Saturday, which could cause winds
to gust around 20 knots at times.

Saturday night-Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely
through the period with cold frontal passages Sunday and Monday.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

$$
Synopsis...Drag/Robertson
Near Term...Drag/Johnson
Short Term...Drag/Johnson
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Drag/Johnson/Robertson 1040AM
Marine...Drag/Johnson/Robertson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1020 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

Yesterdays rain by the way via DEOS and CoCoRAHS reports deposited
0.7 to 1.2 inches in Sussex County of southern DE.

Tonight...no change to mid shift forecast. Showers should arrive
toward dawn in e PA. If there is to be fog...and I don`t think
there will be much...it should be mostly e Pa and e MD.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Drier weather is expected overnight Friday behind the cold front.

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

TODAY...VFR with a mostly east to southeast wind.

Tonight...VFR becoming MVFR conds in st/fog/scattered showers late.
Light south wind.

Friday...Showers and thunderstorms possible with a cold frontal
passage. MVFR or IFR CIGS and VSBYS. Gusty west-northwest winds
behind the front of 15-20 knots.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night...VFR expected.

Saturday...VFR expected.

Sunday...Generally VFR. Scattered showers possible during the day.
Gusty west-northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.

Sunday night...VFR expected.

Monday...VFR with gusty west to northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night-Saturday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions
expected. Cold frontal passage Saturday, which could cause winds
to gust around 20 knots at times.

Saturday night-Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely
through the period with cold frontal passages Sunday and Monday.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

$$
Synopsis...Drag/Robertson 1020AM
Near Term...Drag/Johnson 1015 am
Short Term...Drag/Johnson 1020AM
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Drag/Johnson/Robertson 1015 am
Marine...Drag/Johnson/Robertson 1020AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
341 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore of New England today, while a
frontal boundary remains to our south. This frontal boundary will
lift northward across the area overnight tonight as a warm front,
followed by a cold frontal passage Friday. Another frontal
boundary will cross the area late on Saturday. An area of low
pressure will strengthen across New England over the weekend and
move into southeast Canada through Monday. Another cold front or
surface trough will cross the area Sunday, followed by yet another
one on Monday. High pressure is forecast to return to the area
late Monday into early Tuesday. An area of low pressure is
expected to lift a warm front across the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday, followed by a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Fog has been slow to develop and the nearly saturated layer
appears to be quite shallow. Thus expect any morning fog to
dissipate within the first few hours after sunrise.

Through the day today, an upper level short wave ridge will slide
east over the region. As a result, expect dry conditions through
the day time hours. Light southeasterly low level flow could
temper high today, as well as a persistent marine layer along the
Coastal Plains through the morning hours. Still, with the
increasing 1000-500mb thickness values (thanks to the short wave
ridge), should see max temps a few degrees higher than yesterday.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Warm front makes slow progress north through the region
overnight. In the mid and upper levels, the short wave ridge moves
off shore as the next short wave trough begins to approach the
region (but should remain west of the region through the overnight
hours.

In the wake of the warm front, moisture and warm air advection,
could lead to a few showers moving into our region, though the
best lift looks to stay west of our region through this time. &&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will move across the area from west to east on
Friday. There will be some instability across the area, and PW
values increase across the area to around 1.5 inches. Therefore
there will be the chance for thunderstorms to accompany the
rainfall that is likely. Some showers and thunderstorms could
produce a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. Winds behind the
front will likely become gusty around 15 to 20 mph. Drier weather
is expected overnight Friday behind the cold front.

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Low clouds and fog are expected to affect the TAF sites
intermittently through 12Z, before slowly dissipating through the
morning hours. Most locations should return to VFR by 15Z. Once VFR
conditions return, expect them to continue through at least 06Z.
After 06z, low clouds and possibly light fog could move into the
region from the south as a warm front lifts through the region. In
addition, closer to 12Z, a few showers may move into the region from
the west. Either one of these factors could lead to MVFR, and
localized IFR conditions developing before 12Z.

OUTLOOK...

Friday...Showers and thunderstorms possible with a cold frontal
passage. MVFR or IFR CIGS and VSBYS likely. Gusty west-northwest
winds behind the front of 15-20 knots.

Friday night...VFR expected.

Saturday...VFR expected.

Sunday...Generally VFR. Scattered showers possible during the day.
Gusty west-northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.

Sunday night...VFR expected.

Monday...VFR with gusty west to northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below small craft advisory conditions.
Seas are expected to stay around 2 feet or less. Winds should remain
near or below 15 kt today and tonight, though direction will shift
from easterly or southeasterly today and this evening to southerly
overnight as a warm front lifts through the region.

OUTLOOK...

Friday-Saturday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Cold
frontal passages Friday and Saturday, which could cause winds to
gust around 20 knots at times.

Saturday night-Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely
through the period with cold frontal passages Sunday and Monday.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...Johnson
Short Term...Johnson
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Johnson/Robertson
Marine...Johnson/Robertson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
341 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

In the wake of the warm front, moisture and warm air advection,
could lead to a few showers moving into our region, though the
best lift looks to stay west of our region through this time. &&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

OUTLOOK...

Friday...Showers and thunderstorms possible with a cold frontal
passage. MVFR or IFR CIGS and VSBYS likely. Gusty west-northwest
winds behind the front of 15-20 knots.

Friday night...VFR expected.

Saturday...VFR expected.

Sunday...Generally VFR. Scattered showers possible during the day.
Gusty west-northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.

Sunday night...VFR expected.

Monday...VFR with gusty west to northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.

OUTLOOK...

Friday-Saturday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Cold
frontal passages Friday and Saturday, which could cause winds to
gust around 20 knots at times.

Saturday night-Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely
through the period with cold frontal passages Sunday and Monday.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...Johnson
Short Term...Johnson
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Johnson/Robertson
Marine...Johnson/Robertson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
934 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over Canada will shift southeast across New England
tonight and offshore on Thursday. A warm front will approach from
the south Thursday night, then a cold front will cross the area west
to east on Friday. A second cold front will move through on
Saturday, followed by high pressure Sunday and Monday. Temperatures
will moderate Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure moves
offshore. A frontal boundary by midweek is then forecast to approach
from the south.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
An upper air analysis showed an elongated closed mid level low from
Lake Erie to Delaware. There is a decent short wave at 500 mb with
this feature as well with one centered near Delaware. The radar and
earlier visible satellite imagery showed an MCV was tied to the mid
level feature across Maryland to Delaware (this stemmed from
yesterday`s convection in Kentucky). This MCV is now spinning down
as radar trends are showing the showers shrinking in areal coverage
and also weakening considerably from a few hours ago. The upper air
analysis also showed much less 700-500 mb lift with this feature
now. As a result, the showers are expected to continue to weaken as
the feature slowly shifts eastward or dissipates. Some guidance such
as the HRRR and RAP want to develop some more showers though
overnight mainly south of Philadelphia. This may be associated with
the lingering 500 mb feature overhead. We are not all that sure how
much shower activity redevelops as the features look weak, therefore
we just left some slight chc pops overnight.

Otherwise, much more in the way of cloudiness across the southern
areas where some deeper moisture remains. Some drier air though
trying to undercut this from the north has eroded the lower clouds
some farther south. The flow is light therefore lower clouds should
fill back in some for the southern to central areas, with less cloud
cover still expected farther to the north. Some fog should develop
especially across the southern zones where rain has occurred however
the overall extent across the area will depend on the cloud cover.

The hourly grids were adjusted with the latest observations, then
the lamp/lav guidance was blended in. No major changes were made to
the low temperatures at this time.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
This forecast was a 50 50 blend of the 12z/11 GFS/NAM mos. The
12z/11 ECMWF suggests that the temps might be 2F warmer than now
forecast. Some uncertainty regarding cloud cover is the reasoning
for not warming temperatures any further than now posted. Light
wind... trending easterly. Any pops are low and at this time kept a
dry forecast. The KI is lower and very little sign of any
instability burst nor do I see any significant lift factor.

Any fog and low clouds may be slow to lift on the Delmarva.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The first part of the extended period, i.e., Thursday night through
Sunday, features trofing aloft with several shortwaves and
associated frontal systems moving through the mid-Atlantic region.
These fronts will bring in cooler air and a chance for showers
through much of the weekend. On Monday the upper trof starts to
move away and the flow aloft becomes more zonal with possibly some
weak ridging. From early through mid-week temperatures will
moderate and the chance for showers will return by mid-week.

For Thursday night, the frontal boundary now to our south will be
approaching or moving through part of the forecast area as a warm
front. The forecast has increasing chance PoPs during the night and
also areas of fog as the front approaches.

On Friday the first cold front will push through from west to east
during mid day to mid-afternoon, preceded by showers. There is some
marginal instability forecast so a chance for isold/sctd t-storms
was also included. Precip should be over by evening along the coast
and by mid-afternoon over east PA.

The air mass behind the first front is not particularly cold so max
temps on Saturday should be only slightly cooler than Friday.
However a second cold front is forecast to cross the area on
Saturday with an associated shortwave trof aloft and some forcing
for UVV. This will bring more showers during the day with perhaps
an isolated t-storm also.

Sunday will be cool and breezy behind the second front with a closed
low aloft and strong cyclonic flow. This usually brings a good
amount of diurnal cu during the day especially north of PHL.

Going into next week, the upper low moves away and some ridging
aloft begins. High pressure moves overhead on Monday and then off
the coast on Tuesday. This will lead to moderating temperatures, but
also increasing moisture with SW return flow around the high.
Monday and Tuesday look dry but a chance of showers and
thunderstorms was included for Wednesday.

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

Tonight...Weakening showers end later this evening from near KILG to
near KACY southward, then perhaps a few more showers develop
overnight. VFR TO MVFR ceilings, with the greatest chance for
ceilings to remain VFR is at KABE and KTTN. There appears to be some
drier air arriving from the north this evening as the lower clouds
erode some, therefore the extent of MVFR ceilings through the night
is of lower confidence.

Some fog should develop especially later tonight at KMIV, KACY, KILG
and KRDG, however the extent is of lower confidence as it may depend
on the cloud cover. Light southwesterly winds, becoming light and
variable overall.

Thursday...Some local fog early, then any MVFR ceilings should
improve to VFR. Light and variable winds, becoming east then
southeast 4-8 knots in the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...
Thursday Night...MVFR/IFR conditions developing with low clouds,
fog and drizzle possible.

Friday...Showers and thunderstorms possible with temporary
MVFR/IFR conditions.

Friday Night...VFR conditions expected.

Saturday...Additional showers and thunderstorms possible with
temporary MVFR/IFR conditions. SW winds gusting 20-25 kt early,
becoming WNW later in the afternoon.

Sunday and Monday...Mostly VFR. Gusty NW winds 15-25 kt possible.

.MARINE...
No headlines through Thursday. Light wind...generally 5 to 10 kt. Seas
at or below 3 feet (A persistent se 2 foot 9 second swell with
very little wind wave). Water temperatures are near normal...the
pool of anomalously warm water from the winter having shifted seaward
(eastward).

As a heads up: the rip current information will appear as a subcategory
within the marine section from this time forward (unless there is
a future change).

Rip Currents: Our Surf Zone Forecast (SRF) will begin May 20th,
530 am with twice a day forecasts through September (~530 AM
Day1, ~9 PM for the next day). Our forecasts will be updated at
any time we receive information that the forecast is significantly
in error, including the rip current formation risk (low, moderate,
high), which will be checked against the 1015 AM beach patrol
reports from June 13-Labor Day. This surf zone forecast page will
be news headlined on our home page www.weather.gov/phi for easy
access.

Also beginning May 20, on our homepage, we will host an Experimental
National Beach Forecast page which will have umbrellas locating
most of the beaches, whereby you can click and obtain beach specific
information. We think you`ll like it, though it may need some
adjusting of our crowded beach locations. There will be social
media announcements, both facebook and twitter. Additionally we
will post a nice 90 second science piece on rip current recognition.

OUTLOOK...
Thursday night through Saturday...Winds and seas expected to
remain below small craft advisory levels.

Saturday night and Sunday...NW winds may gust to 25 kt or higher.

Monday...Winds and seas below SCA levels.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

$$
Synopsis...AMC/Gorse
Near Term...Gorse
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...AMC
Aviation...AMC/Gorse
Marine...AMC/Drag

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

346 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TODAY, THEN OFFSHORE OF NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY TO
OUR SOUTH. A WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO LIFT INTO OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA LATER ON
SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
THROUGH MONDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. SEVERAL
SURFACE TROUGHS OR COLD FRONTS COULD CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LTST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A WEAKENING AREA OF SHWRS ACRS THE
DELMARVA, WITH MORE SHWRS TO THE S THAT ARE HOLDING ON. THE
MAJORITY OF THOSE SHWRS SHUD PASS TO THE S OF THE CWA.

ALL OF THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCD WITH AN UPPER LVL S/WV WHICH WILL MOVE
THRU THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN, WE WILL LIKELY SEE A
BREAK FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY
TODAY.HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHWRS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTN. THE HRRR IS WETTER THAN THE REST OF THE GUID AND
BRINGS PRECIP FURTHER N. AM NOT SUPPORTING ITS SOLN ATTM, BUT NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
YET ANOTHER S/WV WILL MOVE ACRS MAINLY SRN SECTIONS AGAIN TONIGHT.
GUID DIFFERS ON POP CHCS WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE GUID KEEPING QPF
TO THE S, WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS RAIN INTO DE AND MD, AND EVEN
PORTIONS OF SRN NJ. WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACRS THIS REGION, BUT IF
THE MAJORITY OF THE GUID IS CORRECT, THE FCST CUD BE OVERDONE.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA DURING A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THURSDAY STARTS OFF WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
VORTICITY IMPULSES SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO IT
IS POSSIBLE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH
CONTINUED VORTICITY IMPULSES OVERNIGHT, THERE WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD ALSO BE PATCHY FOG OR DRIZZLE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH WILL
BRING A GREATER POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THERE IS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA, SO THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COULD BECOME GUSTY AROUND 15 TO
20 MPH. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH
WILL AGAIN BRING A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS, AND AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALSO LIKELY
BRING VERY GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT,
ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN TO OUR NORTH, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY BREEZE ACROSS THE AREA.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH, AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY CROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY, BUT MAY ONLY BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WIND
DIRECTION CHANGE. WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY DURING THE DAY
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

MONDAY MAY BE A SIMILAR DAY TO SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA. ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ARE POSSIBLE, BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTH WILL BEGIN SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD OUR AREA. AS A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE AREA, SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY
FORECAST AT THIS TIME, SO WE WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PD. THERE CUD BE SOME
MVFR CONDS TWD DAYBREAK IN AT KILG, KMIV AND KACY IF THESE AREAS ARE
IMPACTED BY RAIN, BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR. FOR NOW AM KEEPING THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY DRY AND VFR. THEN, THERE CUD BE MORE MVFR CONDS
TWD THU MRNG AS ANOTHER UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE CUD BRING MORE RAIN
MANLY TO SRN AREAS.

WIND WILL BE VRY LIGHT, MAINLY LESS THAN 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH WITH FOG AND
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT COULD CONTINUE TO REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND FRONT 15-20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS EARLY, BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PDS. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 3 FT, WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 5 TO
10 KT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH COULD CAUSE WINDS
TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1004 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the Atlantic Coast will continue ridging into
the forecast area through Thursday. Moisture will increase ahead
of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move into the
area Friday. Another cold front with little moisture will move
into the region late Saturday and stall. Moisture will begin to
return along this front Monday.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak frontal boundary will remain north of the forecast area
with a lee-side trough in the area. A mid-level shortwave trough
was helping support thunderstorms in western North Carolina this
morning. Lift associated with the upper feature should remain
mainly north of the forecast area. However...outflow boundaries
from the convection and strong heating may help support
thunderstorms in the north section of the forecast area late this
afternoon. The HRRR suggested scattered coverage in the north part
late this afternoon with this scattered convection sinking
southward into much of the remaining area. We have forecasted
chance pops, mainly in the north section. Instability will be
strong. The NAM indicated surface-based LI`s near -7. Observations
supported an inverted-V type sounding and the water vapor imagery
displayed dry air in the region which should aid downdrafts.
Damaging wind will be possible with the thunderstorms. Wet bulb
zero heights near 10,000 feet and significant CAPE in the hail-
growth region favor hail. Thunderstorm coverage and intensity
should diminish tonight with the loss of heating. Area raob
thicknesses supported highs around 90. The temperature guidance
tonight was consistent.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The models indicate H5 ridging through Thursday which should help
keep moisture shallow. However, strong heating and convergence
into a lee-side trough plus some increase in moisture well ahead
of the cold front may help support thunderstorms mainly in the
northwest section closer to deeper moisture. The models indicate
strong instability. The nam displays surface-based LI`s around -8.
Damaging wind will be possibly with the thunderstorms. Wet bulb
zero heights also favor hail. It should be hot ahead of the front
and we leaned toward the higher temperature guidance.

Moisture should increase Thursday night ahead of a cold front and
mid-level shortwave trough. We leaned toward the higher guidance
pops. Cloudiness and mixing should hold up temperatures. The
temperature guidance was close.

The models show the front in the forecast area Friday with deepest
moisture shifting east of the area early associated with a mid-
level shortwave trough. Moisture becoming more shallow diminishes
confidence, but we leaned toward the higher guidance pops because
of convergence along the front and diurnal heating. Early day
cloudiness and showers should limit instability, but it will be
cold aloft. The NAM and GFS show h5 temperatures -12 to -14 C.
Moderate instability may occur supporting a possibility of
damaging wind with thunderstorms. The cold air aloft may also help
support hail. Followed the guidance consensus for the temperature
forecast.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The models have been consistent with little moisture recovery
behind the lead mid-level shortwave trough before the next cold
front late Saturday or Saturday evening. Expect this front will
stall near the area. The models hold off a return of significant
moisture until at least Monday. The front appears to linger in
the area during the rest of the medium-range period supporting an
increased chance of thunderstorms. The GFS, ECMWF, and EKD MOS
have pops less than 20 percent Saturday and Sunday, and 30 to 40
percent during the rest of the period.

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR expected today outside of any convection. Upper impulse, along
with the remnants of an MCS and a stalled front over NC, expected to
promote scattered convection, mainly to the north and northeast of
the terminals this afternoon and evening. Some additional showers,
and a possible thunderstorm, may develop along a sea breeze this
afternoon and evening, but may remain to the south and east of the
terminals. So, chances of convection affecting the terminals too low
to include mention in the TAFS at this time. Fog possible again late
tonight/early Thursday morning, mainly at the fog prone sites AGS
and OGB, depending on the extent of lingering mid level cloud cover.
For now, will indicate TEMPO MVFR at those locations.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning fog possible,
mainly at the fog prone sites AGS and OGB, through Friday. Chance
of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
Thursday, better chances Friday with the passage of an upper
impulse and surface front. No impacts to aviation expected
Saturday/Sunday.

.CAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
GA...None.
SC...None.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JL
NEAR TERM...JL
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

301 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.UPDATE...

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

AREA OF SLOW MOVING OR NEARLY STATIONARY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN
IL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN LATE THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED WITH THESE LINGERING
SHOWERS...WHICH WERE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK
REMNANT MCV FEATURE LOCATED NORTH OF KVYS/PERU-LASALLE. EARLIER
SLOW-MOVING STORMS HAD PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER PORTIONS OF LASALLE AND GRUNDY COUNTIES...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF NEARLY 2 INCHES AND SOME REPORTS OF MINOR FLOODING.
WHILE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH...AN AERIAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM FOR
WESTERN/CENTRAL LASALLE COUNTY FOR RESIDUAL MINOR FLOODING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH OVER NORTHERN IL. MOIST AND RELATIVELY COOL ENVIRONMENT
NORTH OF A WEST-EAST STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE FOG DEVELOP
AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT. CURRENT WEB CAMS SHOW LIGHT FOG/LOW CEILINGS
DEVELOPING BACK INTO DOWNTOWN CHICAGO...AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND
INLAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL NEED FOR FOG HEADLINES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE.

HAVE UPDATED HOURLY POP/WX TRENDS BASED ON RECENT RADAR
TRENDS...AND ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS A BIT HIGHER IN OUR SOUTHERN TIER
OF CWA COUNTIES BASED ON FRONTAL POSITION WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE LOW-MID 60S. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
243 PM CDT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE WARM FRONT LIES ALONG OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF I-80 WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE
LOW 70S SOUTH OF IT. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO PULL NORTH
WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. FINALLY SEEING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATES CAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A BIT LESS CAPE. SHEAR VALUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE VERY
LOW...BUT THINKING A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
GENERAL ROTATION ALOFT. ONLY EXPECTING ONE TO PERHAPS A FEW STORMS
TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. SO
FAR THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED TAME WITH LIMITED VERTICAL GROWTH.

CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
QUICKLY BECOMES STABLE WITH A DECENT SURFACE INVERSION. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES BAGGY WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS COMBINED WITH RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS FROM THE FRONT AND
RECENT RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG OVERNIGHT. NOT CERTAIN THAT WE
WILL SEE DENSE FOG...BUT AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY. TEMPS DROP INTO
50S THIS EVENING AND THEN HOLD STEADY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY IS STILL LOOKING WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 SOUTH OF I-80.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 60S ALONG THE LAKE. CLOUD
COVER WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN HOW MUCH AREAS AWAY FROM THE
LAKE WILL WARM. IF ANY LOCATION GETS A BIT MORE SUNSHINE...COULD SEE
TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 80S. THE MAIN FORCING STAYS WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. A STOUT CAP WILL ALSO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.

JEE

.LONG TERM...
214 PM CDT

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY FRIDAY WHILE TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
ANTICIPATE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO BE DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING A STRONG CAP FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING OF THE LOW
PASSAGE AND THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE...THINK THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS GREATLY LIMITED AND WOULD ANTICIPATE ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE REGION TO BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE AS IT
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE...A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET OUT
AHEAD OF THE LOW TRACK WILL RESULT IN DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA AND AREAS NORTH...ALONG WITH BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT SWINGS AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SWITCH IN WINDS WILL HELP DRIVE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE LOW TO MID
70S THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
60S...AND ONLY MID/UPPER 50S FOR SATURDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
COULD CAUSE SOME LIGHT RAIN...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FOCUSED IN THE
MID LEVELS WITH DRY LOW LEVELS INDICATED IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE QPF. UPPER PATTERN IS
PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. EXPECT PRIMARILY DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH SOME LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES
COULD BRING A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO.

BMD

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL BE ON VSBYS/CIGS...AS AREAS OF
DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN IL AIRFIELDS AND EXPECTED
TO PERSIST UNTIL DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY AFTER. THE EAST/NORTHEAST
WIND OF 5-8KT WILL CONTINUE...WHICH WILL ONLY AID IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND KEEP VSBYS CONSIDERABLY REDUCED ALONG WITH KEEPING
CIGS AROUND 200FT AGL. SOME GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED THAT CIGS MAY
TRY TO LIFT SLIGHTLY TO 300-400FT AGL AROUND 10-13Z WITH PERHAPS
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VSBYS AS WELL...HOWEVER FEEL THIS MAY BE A
MORE OF A TEMPORARY FLUCTUATION UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH
OCCASIONAL 1/4SM VSBYS. THEN THERE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAT THE VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO AROUND 1SM BY 15Z...THEN CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE TO VFR VSBYS AROUND 18-19Z. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE AS WELL...BUT SHOULD BE BACK TO BORDERLINE IFR/LOW-END
MVFR CONDS LATE MORNING. WITH WARMTH ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON A STEADY
EROSION TO THE CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT CIGS TO VFR CONDS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

THEN THE NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE ON TIMING OF PRECIP AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING...WITH
SOME SUGGESTION THE EARLIEST SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
21-23Z...BUT IT APPEARS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE TIMING WOULD END UP
BEING LATER AROUND 3Z. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
BETTER TIMING OF CONVECTION BETWEEN 3-6Z...THEN EXPECT JUST SOME
LINGER SPOTTY SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AND WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY
EARLY THUR MORNING.

BEACHLER

.MARINE...
255 AM CDT

VERY WARM AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND RESULTED IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPING...AND BASED ON
CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THE DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW POCKETS OF DENSE FOG MAY PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AND THE HEADLINE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. THE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BUT WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 5 TO 10 KT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF ONLY INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KT WILL LIKELY KEEP WAVES FROM BUILDING VERY HIGH. FURTHER
NORTH THE GRADIENT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST TO 10 TO 20 KT AND PERHAPS
ALONG FAR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SPEEDS COULD APPROACH 25KT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE WEST AND
TURN WINDS SOUTHERLY THEN WESTERLY BY THURSDAY MIDDAY...THEN A
SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND BRING
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GRADIENT WITH BOTH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY STRONG...SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANY
SMALL CRAFT HAZARDS WILL OCCUR FOR EITHER THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA
NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETUP ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...HELPING TO CONTINUE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

BEACHLER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-
ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM
WEDNESDAY.

IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 10
AM WEDNESDAY.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-
LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

113 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.UPDATE...913 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
243 PM CDT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

JEE

.LONG TERM...
214 PM CDT

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

BMD

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

BEACHLER

.MARINE...
214 PM CDT

A WARM FRONT LIES SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN. WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS POOLING NEAR THE FRONT
HAVE RESULTED IN FOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...THUS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUES FOR THE REST
OF TODAY THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST
BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD RIDGE STRENGTHENS
AND REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY.

IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INZ001 UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-
LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

603 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

Cold front is finally exiting the area with only small lingering
chcs for convection across the far southeast counties this evening.
The upper trough will remain over the region with another wave
forecast to move across the region tonight with additional lift in
the 800-500mb layer. Lack of instability and a drier airmass should
keep any response to an increase in mid cloud overnight. The
increase in clouds along with some light mixing in the boundary
layer/drier air should help reduce any fog potential at least that
is the thinking at this time.

A dry and quiet day should prevail across the area on Thursday with
highs in the lower to middle 70s along with dewpoints in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

Thursday Night through Saturday...

With northwest flow aloft, surface ridge of high pressure moves off
to the southeast Thursday night. Low amplitude shortwave trough in
this northwest flow enters the Central Plains Friday with associated
cold front moving rapidly southeast. Moisture return ahead of this
system is limited, but lift along front strong enough to trigger
showers and thunderstorms by Friday afternoon. These should be out
of east central KS by Friday evening. Cooler temperatures are
expected for Friday night and Saturday...lows in the 40s and highs
in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Short range models all have some
very weak wave in continuing northwest flow producing lift across
the area on Saturday morning. Confidence is not high but have
placed some slight chance probabilities of showers in north central
KS during the morning.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...

A few showers are possible Saturday night through Sunday as the
right entrance region of a 500mb northern stream jet streak positions
over northeast Kansas. Model solutions diverge greatly next week
although it appears as a broad, low amplified trough across the
western United States will slowly push eastward toward the central
plains early next week. The best for chance for shower and
thunderstorm activity in the extended is Monday afternoon into
Tuesday morning as the main upper level wave ejects across the
central plains. Precipitation chances continue Tuesday and Wednesday
as the upper level trough slowly pushes east across the area.
Temperatures will slowly rebound to near 70 degrees by Wednesday

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

Models bring some mid clouds in from the west overnight. This
combined with northwest winds advecting dry air into the area
should preclude any ground fog overnight. Therefore VFR conditions
are expected to prevail with the better moisture and boundary well
to the southeast of the terminals.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Baerg/GDP
AVIATION...Wolters

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
236 PM MDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Wed May 11 2016

17Z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated trough in place
across northern plains, with clear closed circulation over North
Dakota. Of more importance to the Goodland CWA is the next short
wave trough moving over the four corners around the base of large
scale trough. With afternoon destabilization and period of large
scale ascent ahead of this trough, expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop over portions of Colorado and drift to
the east/southeast across the area. Overall instability fields are
limited, so aside from precip threat expect little overall impact.

Temps may dip down into the 30s in a few locations, but do not
expect any widespread frost or freeze conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM MDT Wed May 11 2016

Thursday-Friday: Upper level ridging will build across the western
US with northwest flow developing across the northern plains. The
main upper level jet and mid level storm track will remain well
north of our cwa during these periods supporting dry conditions
through at least Friday afternoon. Temperatures will trend towards
seasonal to slightly above normal values with lee trough
redevelopment in eastern Colorado and southerly flow through the
boundary layer. Highs will generally be in the 70s, with a larger
spread on Friday as a cold front approaches from the north. Ahead of
this front stronger WAA may support highs around 80F.

Friday night-Wednesday: A cold front will push south through the
region and stall south of our region, with below normal temperatures
through these periods and increasing precip chances. Models are
showing the potential for a few showers in our northeast late Friday
night as a band of elevated frontogenesis moves through the area
behind the cold front. Deep moist advection is limited Friday night,
and this could limit potential coverage.

An upper level trough building over the west will eventually result
in SW flow along with southerly return from from the Gulf of Mexico
by Saturday night. This will set the stage for several possible
periods of showers and thunderstorms with a series of quick moving
shortwave troughs and possible closed h7/h5 upper lows moving over
our CWA. The strongest precip signal continues to be on
Monday/Monday night.

Despite the good model overlap in QPF the evolution of the upper
level pattern and impact on the surface pattern is still in
question with less run to run consistency beyond Sunday. Most
guidance is favoring a stationary front remaining outside (west
and south) of our cwa. On the other hand, the operational GFS is
showing this front lifting north as a warm front Monday and the
potential for a severe weather outbreak. I was comfortable with
PoPs inherited by latest blend and cooling temperature trend
considering the ensemble support and model consensus. I am just
not sold on the idea of more than just showers with embedded
thunderstorms or an elevated severe threat at this range.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Wed May 11 2016

Vfr conditions expected for the next 24 hours as area of showers
and thunderstorms this evening will remain to the south of
terminals. Small threat for fog as morning temp-dewpoint spreads
approach 0,but right now vertical profiles do not look favorable
for widespread fog formation.

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

324 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

A dry and quiet day should prevail across the area on Thursday with
highs in the lower to middle 70s along with dewpoints in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

Thursday Night through Saturday...

Saturday Night through Wednesday...

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

MVFR CIGS will persist at TOP/FOE for a few hours this afternoon
before improving to VFR. Winds will remain NNW and become light
after 00z. Fog potential exists overnight however mid cloud is
forecast to overspread the area so not confident at this point in
lower VIS conds.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Baerg/GDP
AVIATION...CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
316 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

Main forecast challenge is periodic precip/convective chances
through Saturday. At mid-afternoon, the airmass continues to
destabilize along the surface cold front across southeast Kansas.
It appears the cap may hold until the front moves just southeast
of the forecast area by dark. However will hold a modest chance
PoP in southeast Kansas this evening. If so, a few strong storms
will be possible until dark. Otherwise, cooler drier low level air
will advect south across the forecast area tonight. A trailing
upper shortwave over Colorado will scoot east across Kansas
tonight which may result in some showers over southwest Kansas,
though mainly just some mid-level clouds spreading east across
central and southern Kansas during the night. A rather pleasant
day expected Thursday with light winds and temperatures close to
seasonal average for mid-May. A significant upper trof will drop
southeast across the upper Midwest during Friday which will help
deepen the developing mean longwave across the Great Lakes into
Saturday. This will allow a rather cool Canadian airmass to advect
south across the Midwest and Plains. Latest guidance suggests the
Canadian cold front will move into central Kansas along the I-70
corridor by midday on Friday and into south central and southeast
Kansas Friday afternoon and evening. Despite limited low level
moisture return, still expect modest diurnal instability with max
temperatures near 80F and surface dew points into the lower 50s.
This should result in MLCAPE values around 1000 j/kg in the
presence of about 40 kts of deep layer shear. Convergence along
the southward advancing front should be sufficient to overcome
weakening cap for widely scattered high based convection lending
to a locally damaging wind and hail risk. Despite a cooler drier
low level regime in the wake of the front on Saturday, some mid-
level forcing and moisture may result in some widely scattered
showers and even some isolated thunder with max temperatures much
below seasonal climo.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

The cool Canadian airmass will be slow to modify into early
next week with temperatures expected to average below climo. The
affects from upper troughing moving through the western Conus into
the Plains should result in better chances for measurable precip,
though details on daily trends are still uncertain.

KED

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

The cold front will continue progressing across the state today.
At 18z it was along the Flint Hills (or southeast of I-35).
A few light showers are affecting areas near KCNU but they are
really amounting to not much of anything.

Convection is expected to redevelop this afternoon after 20z. That
said, the progress of the cold front seems to be well ahead of
model forecasts. It is continues on its current pace, convective
redevelopment will be outside of Kansas.

Overnight, a weak disturbance will move off the High Plains and
track southeast. Showers and thunderstorms will move across the
southwestern portion of Kansas. At this time, confidence is low as
to whether or not the precipitation will affect the regional
airspace. Therefore, included only a mid desk of clouds for now.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 54 77 52 80 / 10 10 0 20
Hutchinson 51 77 52 80 / 10 10 0 30
Newton 52 75 52 79 / 10 10 0 30
ElDorado 52 76 52 79 / 10 10 0 20
Winfield-KWLD 53 77 52 80 / 10 10 0 10
Russell 48 76 52 78 / 10 0 0 20
Great Bend 48 76 52 79 / 10 0 0 20
Salina 50 76 52 79 / 10 0 0 30
McPherson 50 76 52 79 / 10 0 0 30
Coffeyville 56 77 51 80 / 40 10 0 10
Chanute 54 76 51 79 / 30 10 0 20
Iola 53 75 51 78 / 30 0 0 20
Parsons-KPPF 55 76 50 79 / 30 10 0 10

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...KRC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
316 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

KED

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...KRC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
225 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...Updated long term section...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

As of 17Z, a weak upper level ridge is found over the eastern
United States with another building over the eastern Pacific and
far western United States. An upper level long wave trough is in
place between these two features with an upper level low
positioned over central Canada and the Northern Plains. A weak
shortwave is currently moving into western Colorado. A 80+ knot
upper level jet is found south of this shortwave extending
eastward into the Central High Plains. A few upper level clouds
are present over portions of western and north central Kansas and
are expected to dissipate this afternoon. High pressure is
building across western Kansas this morning behind a cold front
that is currently extending from northwestern Missouri, through
eastern Kansas, then through central Oklahoma. As for expected
weather this afternoon, a few thunderstorms are progged to develop
across eastern Colorado and head towards western Kansas. This
activity is not expected to make it into the CWA before 5 PM.
Highs today look to range from the upper 60s across portions of
west central Kansas to upper 70s across portions of south central
Kansas. Winds will generally be from the north northeast this
afternoon shifting to the north northwest this evening.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

The upper level shortwave mentioned in the synopsis will move into
western Kansas this evening. This will create enough lift for the
thunderstorms across eastern Colorado to continue into western
Kansas. A few of these storms may become strong with gusts up to
50 mph and small hail being the main concern. I believe most of
the severe weather will remain south of the forecast area and in
the OK/TX panhandle. Otherwise cloudiness will increase this
evening with mostly cloudy skies. Drier air moves into the area
after midnight with decreased cloudiness from north to south.
Mostly clear skies are anticipated tomorrow as high pressure
dominated the area. Winds tonight look to blow from the northwest
shifting to more of a westerly direction tomorrow as the center of
high pressure starts to slide south of the area. As for temperatures,
lows tonight look to range from the lower 40s across portions of
west central Kansas to lower 50s across portions of south central
Kansas. Highs tomorrow are progged to range from the lower 70s
across portions of west central Kansas to upper 70s across south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

Mostly clear skies are expected Thursday night into Friday as a
ridge of high pressure builds above the Western United States. A
strong shortwave looks to move through the Northern Plains during
this time frame and help push a cold front through the area Friday
afternoon. Winds ahead of this front will generally be from the
southwest then shifting to the north behind the front. A few
thunderstorms may form along this front in the afternoon, mainly
south and east of Dodge City. These storms will quickly move south
of the area Friday evening with no precipitation expected Friday
night. A weak disturbance looks to move south of the area Saturday
bringing a slight chance of precipitation along the KS/OK border.
Otherwise expect increasing cloudiness through the day. A series
of disturbances are expected to affect the area for the remainder
of the weekend into the mid part of next week bringing a chance of
thunderstorms to the area each day. Confidence is low on the
timing of these disturbances at this time. As for temperatures,
highs look to reach to around 80 degrees Friday ahead of the
aforementioned cold front, then cool off to around 60 degrees this
weekend. Lows are expected to dip to around 50 degrees Thursday
night with low to mid 40s Friday and Saturday night. Highs rebound
into the 60s Monday and Tuesday with lows generally in the 40s.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight with
increasing high clouds this evening into the overnight period.
Winds will generally be from the north northwest this afternoon
shifting to the north northwest by midnight.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 48 76 52 80 / 20 10 10 20
GCK 46 75 50 80 / 40 10 0 10
EHA 47 74 50 82 / 60 10 0 10
LBL 48 75 50 82 / 40 10 10 10
HYS 46 74 51 77 / 10 0 10 10
P28 52 78 53 82 / 10 10 10 30

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
225 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...Updated long term section...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
143 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...Updated short term section...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed May 11 2016

For Thursday and Friday, dry northwesterly flow prevails across the
Plains. A deep upper low will push a significant cold front across
the Plains late Friday with a slight chance for thunderstorms mainly
east of Dodge City. Highs will be in the mid 70s on Thursday, and
around 80 ahead of the cold front on Friday.

For the period of Saturday into next Tuesday, a cool period is
forecast for the Central Plains as sprawling cooler high pressure
pushes across the region. Highs will only be in the mid to upper 60s
with lows from the mid to upper 40s. Slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms also run through this period, but not a lot of
confidence in anything substantial.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 72 48 74 51 / 10 20 0 0
GCK 70 46 74 49 / 10 30 0 0
EHA 69 47 73 50 / 40 50 10 0
LBL 72 48 74 50 / 20 40 10 0
HYS 69 46 73 50 / 10 10 0 0
P28 77 52 76 52 / 10 20 10 0

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Hovorka_42

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1239 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...Updated synopsis section...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

As of 17Z, a weak upper level ridge is found over the eastern
United States with another building over the eastern Pacific and
far western United States. An upper level long wave trough is in
place between these two features with an upper level low
positioned over central Canada and the Northern Plains. In
addition, a weak shortwave is currently moving into western
Colorado with a 80+ knot upper level jet south of this shortwave
extending eastward into the Central High Plains. A few upper
level clouds are present over portions of western and north
central Kansas and are expected to dissipate this afternoon. A
dome of high pressure as been building across western Kansas this
morning behind a cold front that is currently extending from
northwestern Missouri, through eastern Kansas, then through
central Oklahoma. As for expected weather this afternoon, a few
thunderstorms are progged to develop across eastern Colorado and
head towards western Kansas. This activity is not expected to make
it into the CWA before 5 PM. Highs today look to range from the
upper 60s across portions of west central Kansas to upper 70s
across portions of south central Kansas. Winds will generally be
from the north northeast and gusty this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed May 11 2016

For today, a vorticity lobe on the bottom of an upper low will
move across the Central Plains later tonight. This system will
push some showers and isolated thunderstorms into the far west
around 7 pm, then to near Garden to Dodge and Medicine Lodge and
west in the evening. Rainfall amounts could be 1/4 to 1/2 inch
from around Elkhart to Liberal. After midnight rain chances
decrease rapidly as the upper vort moves east.

Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s with increasing clouds in
the far west late. North to northwest winds of 15 to 30 mph this
morning settle back in the afternoon as high pressure build into the
Central Plains.

Lows tonight will be cool and in the mid to upper 40s with light
northeast winds becoming light and variable. Clouds increase from
west to east with a disturbance and a chance for rainfall mainly
west of Dodge City.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed May 11 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Hovorka_42

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1129 AM MDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Wed May 11 2016

Temps may dip down into the 30s in a few locations, but do not
expect any widespread frost or freeze conditions.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT WED MAY 11 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOOKING WETTER ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO AN
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START SATURDAY EVENING AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
MOISTURE FROM MEXICO GETS TAPPED INTO AND HELPS WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. CURRENT GFS AND EUROPEAN MODEL RUNS DO NOT HAVE IMPRESSIVE
CAPE VALUES BUT THERE IS SOME GOOD BULK SHEARING AND 700 MB
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW IT
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE SEVERE. RAIN SHOWERS ARE MORE PROBABLE. THE
ISSUE RIGHT NOW FOR MAKING DECISIONS ON SEVERITY DIFFICULT IS THAT
THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE PLACEMENT AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE
TROUGH. THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND SITTING OVER
THE 4 CORNERS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN HAS THE TROUGH
MUCH MORE NORTH AND LESS AMPLIFIED...AND ALSO HAS IT SITTING OVER
THE DAKOTAS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THESE DISCREPANCIES COULD IMPACT
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ONE THING THE MODELS
DO HAVE IN COMMON IS THE PRECIP TIMING. OTHER THAN THAT...WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS TROUGH AND HOW IT IS GOING TO TRACK.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Wed May 11 2016

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

222 AM MDT WED MAY 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THIS EVENING. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
PERSISTENT IN CONSOLIDATION OF CENTRAL COLORADO STORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE REGION AS AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS
TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY CASTS A LITTLE DOUBT ON THAT
SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF ACTIVITY OVER MOST
OF THE REGION RIGHT NOW. AS A RESULT...DOWNGRADED SOME OF THE POPS
10-15 PERCENT.

ONLY SEVERE STORM...LOCATED IN NORTON COUNTY...IS NOW MOVING TO
THE EAST INTO THE HASTINGS, NEBRASKA FORECAST AREA. STORM WAS
SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE AT TIMES AND DID PRODUCE HAIL UP TO QUARTER
SIZE. FEEL THE SEVERE HAIL THREAT MIGHT BE OVER. THE PRIMARY
THREAT FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REST OF THIS
EVENING SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND HIGH
DCAPE WOULD SUPPORT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL
DOWNBURSTS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER EASTERN
KANSAS. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LOW. AT THE SURFACE...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS IN PLACE FROM JUST
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SNW HALF
OF THE CW (JUST NORTHWEST OF KMCK AND KGLD).

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SUBSIDENCE SPREADING OVER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST BY 12Z TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING PARTICULARLY
IN OUR NORTH AND EAST...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MEAN FLOW
WILL TEND TO BE PARALLEL TO FRONT AND POST FRONTAL ELEVATED
FRONTOGENESIS (850-700MB LAYER)...WHICH COULD SUPPORT TRAINING OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

REGARDING SEVERE THREAT...STRONG LINEAR/SPEED SHEAR IS IN PLACE AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING RAISING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS/MCS POTENTIAL. LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS LIMITED CAPE CURRENTLY
SHOW BY LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. GFS CURRENTLY REFLECTS CURRENT TRENDS
AND AT MOST HAS MU CAPE IN THE 500-900 J/KG RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER MU CAPE IN THE 900-
1500 J/KG RANGE IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE NAM ALREADY SEEMS TO BE RUNNING HIGH ON
TDS THIS IS LIKELY INFLUENCING ITS CAPE PROFILES. IF GFS CONTINUES
TO VERIFY I AM SKEPTICAL THAT WE WOULD SEE MORE THAN SHOWERS AND
MARGINAL THUNDERSTORMS. WITH INVERTED V PROFILES ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
STRONG WINDS WILL BE A PRIMARY THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS. IF
HIGHER CAPE (NAM) VERIFIES THEN WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED QUARTER SIZE
HAIL THREAT.

WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING
SHOULD END WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN ROTATES THROUGH THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRECIP
SIGNAL IN OUR SOUTHWEST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND I STUCK WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY I AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE ACTIVITY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS (MAINLY
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT WED MAY 11 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

AREA OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ITS
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM
THREAT HAS ENDED AT KGLD AND ONLY ANTICIPATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT 2 HOURS. AT KMCK...SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR NEXT
2-3 HOURS BEFORE PRECIP SHIFTS EAST. BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED VIS
IS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER RAINS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NO
PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...RRH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

241 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

Will be brief as storms progged to develop over next hour or so over
the area, with stronger focus along and north of I70. Threat
continues to be large hail and wind, with plume of instability
working its way northward into the area at this time. Higher
resolution models indicate a convective system developing and moving
to the northeast, with much of the activity east of our area by
around the noon hour as the main front pushes through. Highs should
still reach into the 70s with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

Beginning of the period starts with surface high pressure moving
into Kansas by early afternoon Thursday keeping conditions dry and
skies mostly clear. This high pressure moves southeast late
Thursday night as a surface low and embedded weak shortwave in the
upper level flow move across northeast Kansas Friday afternoon into
Friday night. With models showing over 1200 J/kg of CAPE and decent
shear across the area Friday, thunderstorms will be possible during
this time period. Saturday through Wednesday, chances for
precipitation persist in the forecast. While the GFS and ECMWF
still have significant differences in the extended, the best
chance for precipitation looks to be Monday and Monday night
associated with a shortwave moving across the southern stream
flow. Instability looks to be minimal through the end of the
period, therefore have kept either showers or showers with
isolated thunder.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

Not much change to the forecast as the HRRR continues to show some
inconsistency in the reflectivity prog. The 03Z HRRR tends to keep
much of the convection north of I-70 while the larger scale NAM
and GFS show more widespread precipitation. Therefore have opted
to maintain a VCTS for the most likely window. Overall the
HRRR/RAP/NAM are a little slower in developing elevated storms, so
have delayed the from groups in the previous forecast accordingly.
Still looks like some MVFR stratus could move in behind the precip
as low level moisture advection persists.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Wolters

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1140 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. THE RIDGE
REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN AND
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ROTATE IN FROM
THE WEST NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND AROUND A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WENT WITH DRY POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE BLEND GAVE 40 TO 50
PERCENT POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
SOME SUBSIDENCE TO OVERCOME AS THE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD THUS I
REDUCED POPS SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY...POPS REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AS THE LOW
MOVES OVER THE CWA AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NO
PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1142 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

Will be cancelling the severe thunderstorm watch by midnight.
There remains some potential for elevated thunderstorms with
large hail overnight, and will maintain likely POPs for north
central and northeast KS overnight. However short term models
suggest it may be several hours before these storms develop. So
for the next hour or so, the threat for severe weather is not
great enough to warrant the continuation of the watch.

UPDATE Issued at 953 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

Have updated the forecast to increase POPs to reflect a more
likely setup for elevated storms overnight. The HRRR, while
somewhat inconsistent with the reflectivity prog, continues to
develop elevated storms after 06Z and the latest RAP/NAM insist on
good low level moisture and theta-e advection developing
overnight. The moisture is not very far away with lower 70 degree
dewpoints observed in eastern OK. That moisture along with fairly
steep mid level lapse rates should yield CAPE values of 1000 to
2000 J/kg surging into eastern KS before daybreak. The 00Z NAM and
01Z RAP are weaker with an elevated mixed layer and given the
potential energy, large hail will remain possible with any
thunderstorm development. The limiting factor may be the effective
shear which is rather marginal. The only factor in not going with
categorical wording is concerns for coverage and the HRRR`s
inconsistent depiction of convection.

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

Currently, the 20Z WV shows a strong upper level trough over the
Northern Rockies with weak ridging centered over the Central Plains
into the Mid MS Valley. At the surface, a surface lee side low is
situated over southwestern KS and southeastern CO with a weak cold
boundary working into south central Nebraska and northwestern KS.

Pleasant conditions for northeastern KS hold through early evening
tonight with temps to top out generally in the low 80s in the next
hour. Lows tonight should fall into the low 60s and probably mid to
upper 50s in northwestern and northern counties along the KS/NE
stateline as an MCS/MCV is expected to develop over northwestern KS
later tonight and track just to the north of the stateline dragging
the southern portions of the complex through northeastern KS.
Therefore, threats tonight do include the possibility of hail and
some stronger winds, but the wind threat seems low due to the
boundary layer having time to cool and stabilize therefore setting
up an inversion before storms enter the region. Not expecting the
boundary layer to completely decouple, so there will be WAA in place
at the surface. However, some potential factors give only medium
confidence in how much elevated severe hail may develop. Most
guidance suggests that if we do see hail it will most likely be
north of I-70 as a LLJ does kick in above the inversion around 9-12Z
time frame. MUCAPE does reach up to 2500J/kg and lapse rates do
possibly steepen to around 7C/km and shear does seem adequate to see
some cells that could produce severe hail and possibly larger.
However, the overall best lift remains to the north in southeast
Nebraska, so ultimately, until the storms form, it is still hard to
see exactly how all these ingredients line up.
However, the bias from most short-term guidance seems to suggest
that the bulk of the activity will be to the north of the forecast
area in the morning.

The afternoon time frame has some question too depending on trailing
stratus and how persistent it is through the day. However, the best
chance for any severe storms in the afternoon will likely be very
southeastern and some eastern counties off through the Kansas City
area due to the cold frontal boundary finally pushing through after
00Z bringing an end to severe potential. Another complicating
factor for the afternoon is how much of a CAP is in place and

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

Wednesday Night through Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms move out of east central KS late Wednesday
evening, or shortly after midnight. With northwest flow aloft, high
pressure ridge builds southeast into the Central Plains for
Thursday, with pleasant temperatures in the 70s and low humidities.
Ridge moves off to the southeast Thursday night as southerly low-
level winds return ahead of a low pressure area approaching from
Nebraska. This low and associated cold front will not run into the
deeper moisture in eastern/east central Kansas until Thursday
afternoon, with thunderstorm development possible. Highs on
Thursday should be about 5 degrees warmer than those on Wednesday,
generally in the mid to upper 70s.

Friday Night through Tuesday...

Northwest flow aloft will be the dominate pattern throughout the
extended period. A weak cold front is expected to push across the
area Friday night into Saturday morning, bringing the chance for a
few showers/thunderstorms across the eastern half of the area. Very
weak shortwaves within the northwest flow will present slight
chances for rain showers Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will
also be noticeably cooler Saturday and Sunday with highs only in
the low to middle 60s. A low amplified trough across the western
United States will push eastward into the central and southern
plains on Monday, increasing chances for thunderstorms Monday
afternoon and evening. Severe weather chances appear low at this
point as moisture return appears very limited through midweek.
Zonal flow will then ensue for the remained of the period.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Baerg/GDP
AVIATION...Wolters

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

153 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY
DWINDLING. EVEN WITH THE LINE OF STORMS COMING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DOESN/T HAVE ANY INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH. SO THINKING THAT MAIN THREAT NOW IS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING. SO HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND REFRESHED HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMMONWEALTH...INCLUDING EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HAVE UPPED POPS AND INCLUDED SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO PULSE TOWARD SEVERE
CRITERIA. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE IN
DIAMETER REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. A STORM SYSTEM HAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN KY...ALREADY RESULTING IN MULTIPLE SEVERE AND TORNADO
WARNINGS. INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN KY HAS INCREASED WITH THE
LATEST NAM RUNS...WITH 2K J/KG EXPECTED BY 21Z. HOWEVER...HIGHEST
CAPE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS WEST OF THE CWA...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME LARGE HAIL MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA. FURTHERMORE STRONG LLVL WIND
SHEAR...WITH THE BULK OF THE SHEAR BELOW 4K FT...ALSO SHOWING A HIGH
POSSIBILITY FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. GIVEN THE
HISTORY OF THESE STORMS SO FAR...CAN ALSO EXPECT A LARGE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

HI RES MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME AGREEING ON THE SHORT
TERM...ESPECIALLY THE TRACK OF STORMS AS THEY HEAD INTO OUR REGION.
THIS MORNING THE HRRR INITIALIZED THE BEST...BUT DID NOT HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN KY. LATER ON...THE HI
RES ARW HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE DYING SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA AND
THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. IF THIS HELD TRUE IT SHOWED THE SYSTEM
COLD POOLING THEN DIVING SOUTHWARD...LIKELY ONLY CLIPPING OUR SW
COUNTIES. THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SEEMED TO COME INTO A SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE CURRENT CONVECTION TRAVELING ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER...WITH ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REACH NORTH CENTRAL KY AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 0
AND 6Z. BASED NEAR TERM POPS ON THIS IDEA...HOWEVER AM A BIT
CONCERNED THAT THIS IS A BIT SLOW...AS THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALREADY BE
EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AT THAT POINT.

SRLY WINDS AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
WHILE WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW DRY PERIODS...THE
WEATHER AS A WHOLE WILL REMAIN VERY UNSETTLED. THE PERIOD WILL
START AS A COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING ON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
FRONT SHOULD DEPART EARLY FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
RETURNING FOR FRIDAY. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. THE
QUESTION THEN TURNS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP
HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING
ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS ZONE...SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS
INTO NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED BUT HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS IMPACTED ALL OF THE TAF SITES SO KEPT
MENTION OF VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWER OR STORM. ONCE THE RAIN
PASSES...EXPECT CIGS TO DEGRADE WITH BR OR FG POSSIBLE AS LOW
LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS/STORMS
BUILD IN AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1215 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

SRLY WINDS AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING INTO POTENTIALLY EARLY TONIGHT. IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH ANY STORMS...WHILE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SATURATED LOW LEVELS REMAIN IN PLACE. MAY SEE
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING GREAT ENOUGH CHANCES/COVERAGE TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR UNDERNEATH THUNDERSTORMS WHERE MUCH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GUSEMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

243 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A stationary front will remain near the Virginia-North Carolina
border through Thursday. A cold front will pass through the area
Friday. A second stronger front will pass through the region
Saturday. High pressure returns Sunday. Another stationary
boundary is forecast to move over the area early next week.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

Current radar shows rain moving through the northern 1/3 of the
CWA. Satellite/obs show breaks in clouds have formed across the
extreme SW corner of the CWA..as a result temps there have pushed
into the M70s while the northern VA/MD remain in the MU50s. After
the rain pushes into PA there should be several dry hours for the
Mid Atlantic. Fly in the ointment will be if convection develops
but short range models not indicating that.

For tonight continued cloudy with potential for drizzle east of
the mountains as region remains north of the stationary boundary.
Temperatures will not change a lot from today`s highs - primarily
in the mid 50s.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Big difference in the GFS and NAM on Thursday POPs - NAM giving
area much higher than GFS. 12Z Euro just came in which is showing
somewhat of a short wave ridge over the east coast which would
give the area a brief period of drier weather so will side with
the GFS solution. Temperatures are forecast to return to the L70s.

But the dryness will be short-lived as a cold front moves over WV
Thursday night...crossing the Mid Atlantic Friday morning. We are
currently forecasting likely POPS..but would not be surprised to
see these raised higher in later shifts. Highs again Friday in
the M70s.

Friday night should see another break in precipitation as the
front moves offshore...as well as less clouds than have recently
been seen. Lows in the 50s.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

An upper level disturbance will pivot across the Eastern Great
Lakes Saturday. A surface cold front will push across our region
Saturday. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday
into early Saturday evening. Instability will be marginal and
moisture will be limited given the brief duration of a return flow
Saturday. Temperatures Saturday will be near normal.

High pressure will build east across the Ohio Valley into the mid-
Atlantic region Saturday night and Sunday. Drier air and cooler
temperatures will coincide with the high pressure.

A series of upper level disturbances will train across the Great
Lakes region...as well as across the Tennessee Valley...Sunday
night through Wednesday. The constant flow of disturbances
will lead to pockets of showers from time to time. It is tough to
pinpoint coverage and intensity at this time...however...the best
chance for showers and any thunderstorms will be Tuesday through
Wednesday. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees below
normal.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

The northeastern part of the forecast area is seeing rain..but
this appears to be the last for several hours. MTN currently down
to 2 miles. On other hand CHO has seen rain come to an end and
visibilites have come up. However ceilings remain low across the
entire area. Patchy drizzle/fog expected overnight.

Thursday should see a period of improved conditions.
Ceilings/visiblities expected to degrade again Thursday night and
early Friday as a cold front approaches the region..then improving
again Friday afternoon/evening to VFR range.

IFR conditions possible with showers and thunderstorms Saturday.
Winds west-southwest 5 to 10 knots with gusts over 25 knots in any
thunderstorms Saturday.

VFR conditions Saturday night. Winds becoming west-northwest 5 to
10 knots Saturday night.

.MARINE...

No problems foreseen on the waters tonight through Friday.

No marine hazards expected Saturday and Saturday night. Again, watch
for a rough chop on the Tidal Potomac and Chesapeake Bay waters
Saturday due to stronger thunderstorms.

.CLIMATE...

LONGEST STRETCH OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL
(AT LEAST 0.01 INCHES)

DCA: 14 DAYS (APRIL 27TH-MAY 10TH 2016) PREVIOUS RECORD: 10 DAYS
(JULY 17TH-26TH 1938 AND AUGUST 12TH-21ST 1873).

BWI: 14 DAYS (AUGUST 10TH-23RD 1873)
RECENT STRETCH HAS ENDED WITH JUST A TRACE REPORTED MAY 9TH.
PREVIOUS STRETCH WAS: 12 DAYS (APRIL 27TH-MAY 8TH 2016).

IAD: ONLY RECORDED TRACE AMOUNTS ON MAY 4TH AND APRIL
29TH...KEEPING THE CURRENT STRETCH AT 6 DAYS (MAY 5TH-MAY 10TH
2016). THE RECORD LONGEST STREAK IS 9 DAYS SET IN MULTIPLE YEARS
(2015/2009/2003/1975/1968).

LONGEST STRETCH OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH ANY RAINFALL
(INCLUDING TRACE AMOUNTS)

DCA: 17 DAYS (MARCH 31ST-APRIL 16TH 1935)
CURRENT STRETCH: 14 DAYS (APRIL 27TH-MAY 10TH 2016)

BWI: 17 DAYS (MARCH 31ST-APRIL 16TH 1935)
CURRENT STRETCH: 14 DAYS (APRIL 27TH-MAY 10TH 2016)

IAD: 15 DAYS (APRIL 26TH-MAY 10TH 2016) BREAKS PREVIOUS RECORDS:
MAY 5TH-17TH 1989 AND JUNE 13TH-25TH 1972

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

PRODUCTS...WOODY!/KLW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
218 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in southeast canada will slide into southern new england
tonight. A warm front from north carolina into low pressure north
of lake superior will try to lift north into our area late
thursday, before a cold front moves east through the mid atlantic
states friday. another cold front will move across our area late
saturday. low pressure will strengthen near maine sunday into
monday while high pressure passes to our south.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mixed case transition AFD for all short term sections. The long
term will follow this afternoon.

208 PM ESTF update for the remainder of this afternoon:

Weak upper level low pressure (500mb) over the upper Ohio Valley has
a weak area of warm air advection ahead of it and is promoting the
development of showers eastward from southwest PA to the Delmarva.
Weak instability burst with a K index near 30 and precipitable
water probably increasing from the 12z IAD sounding of 1.2 inches
to near 1.4 inches this evening over Delaware.

Afternoon qpf may add up to .50 inches in a few spots of southern
DE where thunderstorms were occurring as of 18z.

Raised pops another 20 pct from the 1230 pm update Md e shore
into s DE this afternoon (near 100 pct) and converted all weather
to coverage showers instead of chance. Ensured scattered
thunderstormswith heavy rain along the southern edge of our
forecast area. Adjusted temps slightly for this afternoon,
warmest near and north of I-80, coolest DE coast.

Partly sunny along and north of I-80, mostly cloudy south of I-78.
light wind, mostly onshore along the coast.

Tonight...Fair north where there may be some radiational cooling.
Leftover showers Delmarva early at night. Added fog as a hazard
there on the Delmarva late tonight. light wind.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
Yet another low confidence forecast whether any showers will occur
Delmarva while the north should stay quite nice. Any fog and low
clouds slow to lift on the Delmarva.

More at 3PM.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA DURING A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED VORTICITY IMPULSES
OVERNIGHT, THERE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD ALSO BE PATCHY FOG
OR DRIZZLE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

Remainder of this afternoon...Cigs generally 2000-3000 ft near
and south of a KRDG KPHL KACY line with showers edging up to KILG
and KMIV. Used the NAM which seems to have performed best on its
tsections the past 6 hours. Vicinity KTTN and KABE cigs 3500-5000
ft. Light wind.

Tonight...cigs generally 2000-3000 ft or lowering to 2000-3000 ft.
Any showers vicinity KMIV and KILG probably ending by 08z. light
wind.

Thursday...Mostly VFR cigs but chance of MVFR CIGS south portion.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH WITH FOG AND
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT COULD CONTINUE TO REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND FRONT 15-20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

.MARINE...
No headlines through Thursday. Light wind...generally 5 to 10 kt. Seas
at or below 3 feet. Water temperatures are near normal now...the
pool of anomalously warm water from the winter having shifted
seaward (eastward).

As a heads up: the rip current information will appear as a subcategory
within the marine section from this time forward (unless there is
a future change).

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH COULD
CAUSE WINDS TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY.

.CLIMATE...
May, the first 10 days has averaged generally 3.3 to 6.6 degrees
below normal. Rainfall has been above normal, especially the southern
part of our forecast area where positive departures were 2 inches
or greater. Trenton, Allentown and Reading were the only long term
climate locations with positive departures just under 1 inch.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

$$
Synopsis...Drag/Robertson
Near Term...Drag 216P
Short Term...Drag 216P
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Drag/Robertson
Marine...Drag/Robertson
Climate...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
209 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will persist until the
passage of a Friday morning cold front. Another cold front will
maintain shower chances Saturday.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low currently centered
over northeastern Ohio, which will continue to slowly transition
east over the course of the day. Shower activity is limited at the
moment and limited to just along the leading edge of the shortwave
associated with the low. a break in the clouds early this
afternoon across western Pennsylvania and eastern Ohio has allowed
surface temperatures to jump quickly to the low 70s which has
increased instability as latest analysis shows mixed-layer cape
values increasing. The latest RAP cycle maintains values around
500 J/kg for most of the afternoon but keeps eastern zones more
stable so expect the majority of any thunderstorms that do pop to
be over our western PA / eastern OH zones, closer to the upper low
center. With relatively weak shear and instability expect most
storms to be of the garden variety but isolated strong
thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall are still possible.
Overnight lows will again be above normal with cloud coverage
keeping radiational cooling to a minimum, but should come close
to dewpoints with patchy fog developing after midnight.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Precipitation chances will continue Thursday as a warm front lifts
over the area. ridging will keep activity from developing much through
the morning, but increasing dewpoints and a shortwave ahead the
approaching cold front along with daytime heating will result in
development by mid- afternoon. Scattered showers and storm
chances will continue thursday night as the cold front crosses the
region. The best chance for stronger storms will be over eastern
Ohio zones late afternoon through early evening.

The evening / overnight timing of frontal passage is unfavorable
for continued thunderstorm activity through the night and expect
mainly showers along the front.

Friday will be largely dry except for a slight chance of seeing
development over higher elevations east of Pittsburgh where
moisture lingers longest. Another cold front will cross the region
Saturday morning bringing another round of rain and cooler
temperatures. With latest M-climate return interval values for
heights and temperatures aloft ranging between 10 and 30, daytime
max temperatures were forecast to be 15 degrees below normal on
average.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A broad east coast trough is expected to result in well below
average temperatures and low shower chances through late in the
weekend. Ridging is progged to briefly build in Monday before a
midwestern trough begins it`s slow approach through mid week,
returning shower chances to the forecast. After Sunday,
temperatures should gradually nudge closer to seasonal levels
through mid week.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through this evening, though
an upper level trough combined with marginal instability should
result in scattered thunderstorms across the area this afternoon.
Maintained a VCTS mention if the taf for now as coverage and
timing remain in question. Otherwise, MVFR to IFR conditions in
fog and stratus are possible again late tonight. These conditions
should improve to VFR by late morning Thursday. Thunderstorm
chances return late Thursday with an approaching cold front but
left mention out of tafs for now.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Periodic restrictions are expected through Sunday with the
approach and passage of a series of cold fronts, and subsequent
upper troughing.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

151 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
BORDER TODAY, AND DROPS INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY. THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY FRIDAY AND CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY NAM/GFS 310/320K
THETA SURFACES. THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS
TRACKING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA. THE SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
STATIONARY FRONT IN VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH CLEARING SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NE NC. MORNING FOG IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. ANY STRONGER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
LINGERS BACK OVER TN AS IT FEEDS ON STRONGER INSTABILITY OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A CHC OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDDAY. A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
LEAD TO SEVERAL HOURS OF QUIET CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NE NC BY MID-
AFTERNOON. WEAK FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TODAY. MLCAPE
IS PROGGED TO RANGE BETWEEN 750-1000 J/KG IN VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT
SHEAR AROUND 25-30KT AND LIFT IN THE MIXED PHASE LATER COULD
RESULT IN SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGHS TODAY
RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH. COOLER ALONG THE
COAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH
THE BEST MOISTURE BEING PUSHED OFFSHORE. LIKELY POPS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, TAPERING OFF TO
CHC INLAND. ALL PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S
NORTH, TO LOW 60S SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTHWARD
THURSDAY AS SHORT-WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE A WARM LAYER (INVERSION) JUST ABOVE 850MB. THIS
WILL ACT AS A CAP, LIKELY LIMITING ANY CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ALSO DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH THANKS TO
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. IN SUMMARY, THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE
PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. SKY AVERAGES PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THANKS TO MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS WARMER A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT FLOW (LITTLE MIXING). HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70`S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH. COOLER
ALONG THE COAST. MIDWEST SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFFSHORE. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY. THE
AMPLIFYING FLOW LIFTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT INDUCE LEE SIDE/THERMAL TROUGHING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
BEST CHANCES, ALBEIT CHANCE, PREVAIL OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MILD...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 60`S.

THE WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY
NIGHT. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
HOWEVER, 11/00Z GFS DEPICTS A VOID OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AS PRECIP DISSIPATES OVER THE PIEDMONT AND REDEVELOPS NEAR
THE COAST. GIVEN THE LIMITED FORCING AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THIS
IS PLAUSIBLE BUT WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE AND MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. WARM SECTOR AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TOWARD 80 DEGREES, BUT
WILL UNDERCUT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER, THETA-E ADVECTION AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60`S WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MLCAPE PROGGED AROUND 1,000 J/KG.
SHEAR ALSO EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 KNOTS SO EXPECT THUNDER AS WELL
ALONG THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR PCPN AND NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. A COLD FRNT SLIDES THRU THE AREA FRI
NGT...WITH PCPN (MAINLY OCCURRING DAYTIME FRI) CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENG HRS OVER ERN AREAS...FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDINESS OVRNGT.
A SECONDARY COLD FRNT/MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PCPN SAT...ESPECIALLY OVER NW AREAS (30% POPS). HI TEMPS
SAT WILL AVG 75-80F. AFTER A COOLER NIGHT SAT NIGHT THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS (LO TEMPS IN THE LO/MID 50S)...SFC HI PRES BRIEFLY BLDS IN
FOR SUN...BEFORE RAIN PSBLY RETURNS MON/TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING LO PRES SYSTM. HI TEMPS SUN THRU TUE AVG IN THE 70S EACH
DAY.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER THIS
AFTN...AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS
AFTN/EVEN...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KORF/KECG. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHWRS
AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL IMPACT KRIC/KSBY THRU 20Z OR SO. ADDITIONAL
SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT THE DETAILS ARE TOUGH TO PINPOINT
ATTM. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC. IFR
(POSSIBLE LIFR) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MOIST LOW-LEVELS STILL IN
PLACE.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THURSDAY (DURING THE DAY) MAY TURN OUT RELATIVELY DRY AFTER
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES
THROUGH FROM THE NW LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER
GENERALLY IMPROVES DURING THE WEEKEND.

.MARINE...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. THIS
FRONT MAY MOVE NORTH INTO THE SRN WATERS THIS MORNING THEN MOVE BACK
TO THE SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST LATE
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES DURING THE WEEKEND.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN 2 TO 3 FT SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS TURN TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KNOTS EXCEPT THEY MAY INCREASE BRIEFLY IN
VICINITY OF TSTMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM/LSA
MARINE...LSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
119 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will persist until the
passage of a Friday morning cold front. Another cold front will
maintain shower chances Saturday.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low currently centered
over northeastern Ohio, which will continue to slowly transition
east over the course of the day. Shower activity is limited at the
moment and limited to just along the leading edge of the shortwave
associated with the low. a break in the clouds early this
afternoon across western Pennsylvania and eastern Ohio has allowed
surface temperatures to jump quickly to the low 70s which has
increased instability as latest analysis shows mixed-layer cape
values increasing. The latest RAP cycle maintains values around
500 J/kg for most of the afternoon but keeps eastern zones more
stable so expect the majority of any thunderstorms that do pop to
be over our western PA / eastern OH zones, closer to the upper low
center. With relatively weak shear and instability expect most
storms to be of the garden variety but isolated strong
thunderstorms with and locally heavy rainfall are still possible.
Overnight lows will again be above normal with cloud coverage
keeping radiational cooling to a minimum but should come close to
dewpoints with patchy fog developing after midnight.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Rain chances continue Thursday into Friday as a warm, moist and
unstable air mass remains ahead of an approaching cold front.
Upper level ridging through Thursday morning will work to
suppress shower development early in the day, so trimmed pops back
through 18Z. Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous
thereafter, primarily across out western zones as dewpoints rise
into the lower 60s. NAM surface dewpoints appear too high,
artificially boosting instability indicators, but enough
instability appears present to mention likely thunderstorms.

The surface cold front crosses the area late Thursday night into
Friday morning. Kept likely pops, with rain showers expected along
the front, but timing will be unfavorable for continued
thunderstorm activity in the pre-dawn hours Friday. Drying trend
expected Friday as the front and focus of showers pushes off to
the east. Still, enough moisture will linger in the higher terrain
SE of PIT to carry a chance of afternoon showers. West winds
behind the cold front will usher in near average temperatures and
lower dewpoint Friday.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A broad east coast trough is expected to set up from the weekend
through early next week, with periodic shower chances and below
average temperatures. The best chance for showers should be with
the passage of a Saturday cold front. The upper flow is progged to
flatten toward mid week, but embedded shortwaves in the flow
should maintain shower chances as temperatures nudge more toward
seasonal levels.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Periodic restrictions are expected through Sunday with the
approach and passage of a series of cold fronts, and subsequent
upper troughing.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

139 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

12Z RAOBS AND LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A BLOCKY UPR
AIR PATTERN OVER NAMERICA. A BLDG UPR RDG EXTENDS FM NW ONTARIO INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS AND IS SITUATED BTWN A CLOSED LO OVER THE CNDN
MARITIMES AND ANOTHER CLOSED LO OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. ANOTHER SHRTWV
IS SLIDING ENE THRU THE MID/UPR MS RIVER VALLEY BUT IS WEAKENING
WITH TIME AS IT LIFTS INTO THE EXPANDING UPR RDG. BUT THERE IS A
GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER RELATED TO A VERY
MOIST 12Z GRB SDNG /PWAT 1.12 INCH/. BUT VERY DRY AIR NOTED JUST TO
THE NE ON THE 12Z APX RAOB /PWAT 0.16 INCH/ IS PROVIDING A SHARP NRN
EDGE TO THE CLD COVER AND THE PCPN EXPANSION. UNDER SHARP PRES
GRADIENT BTWN SFC HUDSON BAY HI PRES AND WEAKENING SFC LO PRES TROF
APRCHG FM THE SW...GUSTY SE WINDS HAVE REACHED 30 MPH AT SOME
PLACES...ACCENTUATING FIRE WX DANGER AS SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL
INTO THE 60S AND RH HAS DROPPED AOB 20 PCT AWAY FM THE CLOUDY AREAS
WITH DAYTIME MIXING.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT INTO WED FOCUS ON CLD TRENDS/POPS AND TEMPS.
FORTUNATELY...WED WL FEATURE MOISTER LLVL AIR/WEAKER WINDS...SO FIRE
WX CONCERNS WL BE REDUCED.

TNGT...APRCHG SHRTWV TO THE SW IS FCST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...ALONG
WITH ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR FORCING. DEEPER RH IS FCST TO INCRS SLOWLY
OVER MAINLY THE SW PORTION OF UPR MI. BUT WITH MINIMAL DEEP LYR
FORCING AND LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR...EXPECT NO MORE THAN SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS IN SOME PLACES NEAR THE WI BORDER/WRN LK SUP. THE
NE PORTION OF UPR MI WL BE CLOSER TO THE HUDSON BAY HI PRES/SLOWLY
RETREATING DRY AIRMASS AND REMAIN MOCLR. MIN TEMPS WL BE LOWEST IN
THIS AREA...FALLING INTO THE 30S EVEN THOUGH A STEADY ESE WIND WL
PERSIST UNDER THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE HUDSON BAY HI AND LOWER MSLP
TO THE SW.

WED...ALTHOUGH THE SHRTWV TO THE SW WL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT...
DEEPER MSTR IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD ALL OF UPR MI AS THE
LO TO MID LVL FLOW SLOWLY VEERS TOWARD THE S. SOME OF THE MODELS
GENERATE SOME LIGHT PCPN OVER MAINLY THE W AND CENTRAL WHERE SFC
DEWPTS WL BE RISING. BUT WITH LIMITED LARGER SCALE FORCING...OPTED
TO MAINTAIN PREVIOUS DRY FCST. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE A BIT LOWER ON
WED WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLD COVER. THE LLVL DRY AIR WL BE MOST
RESILIENT OVER THE E...WHERE THE MIN RH WL AT LEAST APRCH 30 PCT IN
THE AFTN. SINCE WINDS WL BE LIGHTER AND GUST NO MORE THAN 15 TO 20
MPH...WL ISSUE NO NEW FIRE WX STATEMENTS ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH PERIODS OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
CWA WILL BREAK DOWN WHILE SHIFTING EAST AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS. VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL DURING THE EVENING...BUT RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS
WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THIS PRECIP AT GROUND LEVEL. A
POCKET OF HIGHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE MID-MS VALLEY ON WED WILL SPREAD NNE DURING THE NIGHT. AS IS
GENERALLY THE CASE WITH REMNANT CONVECTIVE PRECIP...GUIDANCE IS
STRUGGLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. SHOWERS THEN DIMINISH FROM
THE SW AS DRIER AIR WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT...USHERING
IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE WEST WIND UPSLOPE
AREAS. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL ON FRI...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE. WESTERLY WINDS ALSO LOOK TO BECOME
QUITE GUSTY DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 30MPH ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE WEST HALF...AS THE SFC LOW SLOWS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DRIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SEND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
REGION...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DECENT CLOUD COVER TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK INVERSION COMBINED WITH H8
TEMPS APPROACHING -10C WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS QUITE LOW...WITH
WIDESPREAD 40S EXPECTED...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 30S EAST HALF ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR. WET BULBS ZERO LEVELS SUPPORT MOSTLY MOSTLY SNOW
OUTSIDE OF THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DIRUNAL HEATING ASSISTANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGHING AND LOW-LEVEL
COLD CORE WILL SHIFT EAST. HOWEVER...A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES ON
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

UPPER MI WILL LARGELY REMAIN ON A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
VERY DRY AIR TO THE NE AND DEEP MOISTURE TO THE SW...THOUGH THE
GRADIENT WILL BE SHIFTING VERY SLOWLY NE WITH TIME. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD TO FALL TO PREVAILING MVFR
EARLY THIS AFTN. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY FALLING TO IFR
NEAR OR JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD. AT KCMX/KSAW...CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

EXPECT E TO NE WINDS UP TO 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN LAKE WHERE TERRAIN
INFLUENCES FUNNEL AND ACCENTUATE THIS FLOW...THRU WED BETWEEN SLOWLY
DEPARTING HI PRES IN QUEBEC AND LO PRES APPROACHING FROM THE SW. AS
THIS LO LIFTS INTO ONTARIO ON THU...EXPECT A WSHFT TO THE W AND
THEN THE NW WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT. AS A RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND...THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

226 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. COLD
FRONT CROSSES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSES ON SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
140 AM UPDATE. CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AS TSTMS HAVE
DECREASED TO BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. LOOK FOR A BAND OF
CONVECTION...MAINLY SHOWERS EXCEPT EMBEDDED THUNDER SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
700 PM UPDATE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AND
ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR FEW STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE THREAT WILL
START TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ALSO...WITH LOW FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WE WILL NEED
TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE ON THAT AREA IF ANY CELLS WERE TO START
BACK BUILDING.

620 PM UPDATE...MCS IS ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY AND I HAVE
INCREASED POP ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AS INCREASED
THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. CURRENTLY THE STORMS HAVE BEEN
BORDERLINE SEVERE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL OCCUR. WITH THE SUN GOING DOWN WE EXPECT STORMS TO
WEAKEN A BIT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING DECENT
INSTABILITY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH CAPE VALUES OF 500 - 1000 J/KG
AND WITH ARRIVAL OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING OUR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES JUMP TO ABOUT 7C/KM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

5 PM UPDATE...INCREASED POP AND ADDED MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RATHER COMPLICATED PATTERN LASTS INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SHALLOW WARM FRONT ACROSS WV AND KY...ALIGNED
MORE OR LESS IN AN EAST- WEST FASHION. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER KY
IS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG FRONT AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS AREA
FOR PRECIP AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. COULD SEE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF
KY...TRACKING INTO WV LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE A MODEST
ADJUSTMENT TO POPS...TOWARDS THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO BE BE
LATCHING INTO THIS IDEA. CARRIED THUNDER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE
GRIDS AS WELL...WITH A BREAK EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND DIURNAL UPSWING
FOR WED. USED A MODEL BLEND FOR NEAR TERM TEMPS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT EXITS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. GOOD WAA AND INSTABILITY INCREASES AS ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STORM FORMATION IS A GOOD BE OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXITS ON
FRIDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. SOILS ARE MOIST
TO WET AND SOME OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR WATER
PROBLEMS. THE ONLY GOOD THING MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING
ALONG AND THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RAINFALL AFFECTS OVER THE AREA.
WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND STARTS TO BRIEFLY DRY US OUT.

GENERALLY KEPT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUICK PROGRESSION OF WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS
AS YET ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE ON TIMING AND POSITION OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WEDNESDAY THRU 06Z THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA REMAINDER OF
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS...WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER OVER SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. AFTER
12Z...ANY ORGANIZED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST WV
WILL END BY 14Z. THEREAFTER...POP UP WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS 17Z-00Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN RELATIVELY
SHOWER FREE 00Z-06Z THURSDAY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

THRU 14Z...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT MVFR CONDITIONS AND
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

AFTER 14Z...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FEET AGL...BRIEFLY LOWER
IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

AFTER 01Z...MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG FORMING MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS 03Z- 06Z...INCLUDING MAJOR TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM TIL 14Z....AND AGAIN AFTER
01Z...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN
AREAS TIL 14Z MAY VARY DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ONSET OF MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 01Z THURSDAY DEPENDS ON
CLOUD BREAKS...WHICH IS EXPECTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE WED 05/11/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H M M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
MVFR TO IFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN WITH A COLD
FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC/MPK
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...JMV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

145 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOLLOWING
BEHIND ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THESE FRONTS...COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACRS NRN KY/SRN OHIO AHEAD
OF MID LEVEL S/W AND WEAK SFC WAVE. THESE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR...WHERE PW/S
WERE BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.3 INCHES. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN ACRS THE SOUTH THRU ABOUT 06Z. EXPECT THESE STORMS
TO CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AND BECOMING MORE SCATTERED PRIOR TO
ENDING OVERNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S. AFTER THE PCPN ENDS IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA OF CONVECTION RIDING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A H5 S/W. THE CONVECTION WILL WORK ACROSS THE FA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...PUSHING THIS INITIAL SURGE THRU THEN BRINGING ANOTHER
WAVE UP AROUND 00Z ASSOCIATED WITH MORE ENERGY EJECTING UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THAT WAVE WILL AFFECT THE MAINLY SRN SECTIONS.
PCPN WILL THEN BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN FROM W TO E AFTER 03Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. CANT
RULE OUT SOMETHING ISOLATED POPPING UP...SO CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN A LITTLE. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

CDFNT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GOOD WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL PUSH HIGHS THURSDAY INTO THE
UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DEPARTS EAST.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING SWIFTLY ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
BEFORE THE WAVE SCOOTS EASTWARD. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH A NARROW
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING PRECIP CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WENT CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND WHICH SHOWS
A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIDAY
WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. READINGS
WILL EXHIBIT A COOLING TREND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS HOVERING
AROUND 60. LOOK FOR A REBOUND BACK NEAR 70 BY TUESDAY UNDER MODEST
WARM ADVECTION.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN/SHEAR AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES
UNTIL 09Z AND THE EASTERN TAF SITES UNTIL 15Z. OTHERWISE...FROM
RECENT RAINS AND PER MODEL RH FIELDS...LOW LEVELS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SATURATE OVERNIGHT TO FORM MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
TERMINALS AS THESE AREAS MAY SEE BETTER OVERALL COOLING THAN THE
EAST WHERE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER.

FOR LATER TODAY...LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND BECOME BKN
CUMULUS. THIS PROCESS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN 15Z AND 19Z.

FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ALONG WITH A SUBTLE BOUNDARY/WEAK LOW LEVEL JET...WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SHOWER/STORM TO THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD...AND SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY 06Z. A FEW SHOWERS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS WELL...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACTIVITY WITH THEM. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER ACCORDINGLY. NO
CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

CONTINUE TO WATCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL CONVECTION ALONG IT. CELLS HAVE POPPED UP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD INTO NEB...BUT OVER OUT CWA THINGS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH...HI RES
MODELS DO SHOW SOME UPTICK OVER OUR AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...WILL JUST BE A MATTER OF HOW WIDESPREAD THINGS ARE AND HOW DEEP
ANY CONVECTION IS. HRRR SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THINGS COMPARED TO
OTHER HI RES MODELS. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BEST CAPE VALUES
FROM ABOUT HURON TO MILLER AND POINTS SOUTH. OVERALL BULK SHEAR IS
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE WITH HIGHEST VALUES WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NONETHELESS...STILL ENOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
TO BRING A THREAT FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK MOSTLY DRY BUT COULD STILL BE
DEALING WITH SOME DEPARTING PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA IN THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ND. CONDITIONS MAY FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY OVER THE WEST RIVER
COUNTIES SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR...BUT IT APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL AT
THIS POINT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS CONFINED TO NORTHWEST SD.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN. INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WESTERN CWA BASED
ON 850 MB TEMPS AND GOOD MIXING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS LOOK MOSTLY
QUIET.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

THE PERIOD OPENS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SFC LOW PRESSURE. AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
AROUND THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SATURDAY
WILL DRY CONDITIONS OUT SOMEWHAT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE AT THE FAR END
OF THE PERIOD WHEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S ON FRIDAY ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S BY TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CWA...BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. IFR CIGS
WILL BE COMMON WITH THE RAIN...WITH VFR CIGS OR MVFR CIGS
BECOMING VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. LOOK FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO EXIT
THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

1243 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.AVIATION...
Did not make a lot of changes with latest TAF package. Showers
are continuing to weaken/move east out of the area at present.
Not seeing evidence of leftover outflows/other boundaries with
latest sfc analyses and have dropped the VCTS mentions for the
rest of the aftn. Any development late this aftn should be iso-
lated enough and will amend as needed. Will keep with mostly a
MVFR CIG trend overnight given the progs of still slightly ele-
vated winds just above the sfc during this time frame. Did toy
with the idea of VCSH for tomorrow morning along the coast but
opted to keep things dry for now as fcst WAA did not look that
impressive. 41

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

Morning Forecast Update...Water vapor satellite imagery this
morning shows a weak short wave trough moving through SE Texas
with a few showers. Visible satellite shows substantial cloud
cover but based on water vapor trends the cloud cover should
become more scattered early this afternoon. Temperatures are still
in the low to mid 70s due to the cloud cover and shower activity.
The main changes to the forecast were to update temperature and
sky trends. The forecast will also keep a 20 percent chance of
rain for today. The rest of the forecast looks on track for the
next 24 hours.

For tomorrow we will need to monitor a frontal boundary pushing
into Texas. Convection may form along it over Oklahoma and north
Texas with cold pools helping to force the front south. The front
may slide into SE Texas tomorrow night into Friday. First look at
the NAM and 06z GFS show a weaker frontal push than previous model
runs.

Overpeck

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 87 70 85 68 85 / 20 20 30 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 86 71 86 70 86 / 20 10 30 30 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 74 81 74 81 / 20 10 20 20 30

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1220 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFs/

VFR through the afternoon with few to scattered cu and increasing
high clouds. A south wind will continue in the 12 to 17 knot range
along with a few higher gusts.

We anticipate that thunderstorms will develop northwest of the
metroplex TAF sites late this afternoon along an approaching cold
front. Storms may be a bit slower to develop than most of the
models suggest since low level moisture was temporarily scoured out
by evening/overnight convection. The most likely time for impact at
the metroplex terminals will be late this evening generally between
about 04Z and 07Z when storms move off of the cold front. There
should be a lull in activity overnight until the cold front moves
through toward sunrise Thursday. The best window of time for storms
with the front will be between 11Z and 15Z at the metro terminals
and Waco between 15Z and 18Z. The passage of the cold front will
also turn the wind to the north at speeds between 6 and 12 knots.

MVFR ceilings should return late this evening/overnight at all North
and Central Texas TAF sites and prevail through the morning hours
Thursday.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/
AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
WEEK. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF RELATIVE QUIET DURING THE
DAY...FOLLOWED BY TWO ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR A DAY OR
TWO BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT US BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING MOST OF THE REGION WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. BY 3-4 PM...TEMPERATURES INCREASE AND SO DOES THE
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF WHAT THE NAM IS
ADVERTISING. THE 00Z NAM DID NOT SEEM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...SO THE CAPE VALUES ARE OVERDONE.

THE FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT AND DRY LINE...AND
WILL THEN MAKE THEIR WAY INTO TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. SHEAR
VALUES DECREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO
EXPECT THE MAIN RISKS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TO BE LARGE HAIL
AND HIGH WINDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES TO NEAR THE RED RIVER...FOCUSING THE
SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR MIDNIGHT AND LASTING
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN
THE FORECAST.

FOX

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 68 78 62 84 / 20 70 40 10 10
Waco 86 68 82 64 83 / 20 40 40 20 10
Paris 85 67 77 58 81 / 20 60 40 10 10
Denton 86 65 77 58 82 / 40 70 40 10 10
McKinney 85 66 78 59 81 / 20 70 40 10 10
Dallas 85 69 80 63 85 / 20 70 40 10 10
Terrell 85 68 81 61 82 / 20 60 40 10 10
Corsicana 86 68 81 64 82 / 20 40 40 20 10
Temple 87 68 82 64 83 / 20 30 40 30 10
Mineral Wells 86 66 78 59 82 / 30 70 40 10 10

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

82/14

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1219 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.Aviation...Clear skies with north northeasterly winds gusting to
around 25 knots are expected through the next few hours, with wind
speeds decreasing a bit and shifting eastward late this afternoon.
This evening, an approaching storm system will likely spark scattered
showers and thunderstorms that will move into the Panhandles region from
the northwest. A secondary surge of north winds is also expected
during the early evening with northeasterly gusts increasing to 25
to 30 knots. A broken/overcast ceiling will form above the
associated frontal slope in the 4,000 to 5,000 ft range. Pretty high
confidence in prevailing VFR at all terminals through the night with
the exception of the vicinity of thunderstorms. Winds drop off and
shift more easterly Thursday as mid level clouds clear out.

JGG

.Prev Discussion... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
RUNNING A LITTLE BEHIND SCHEDULE THIS MORNING DUE TO GFE CHRON
ISSUES...BUT ALL IS GOOD NOW. WSR-88D SHOWING COLD FRONT HAVING MOVED
OUT OR JUST ABOUT MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING EAST AND
SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES BY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXIT THE PANHANDLES BY 18Z THURSDAY WITH ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE ENDING BY THAT TIME.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AND WILL ALLOW FOR A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR NORTHWEST
FLOW CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW MENTIONING.

COOL SURFACE RIDGE BUILD DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN
INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE
WEEKEND. VERY ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTING
THE PANHANDLES BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING AND THEN TRACKING
EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEXT MONDAY AND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES NEXT TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 77 48 72 51 84 / 5 40 10 0 5
BEAVER OK 77 48 76 51 84 / 10 40 5 0 5
BOISE CITY OK 71 44 71 49 83 / 20 40 5 0 5
BORGER TX 79 53 74 55 84 / 10 50 10 5 5
BOYS RANCH TX 79 50 73 51 85 / 10 40 10 0 5
CANYON TX 78 48 72 50 84 / 5 40 10 0 5
CLARENDON TX 81 52 74 51 84 / 0 50 20 5 5
DALHART TX 74 46 70 48 82 / 20 40 10 0 5
GUYMON OK 76 47 73 51 84 / 20 50 5 0 5
HEREFORD TX 79 50 71 50 84 / 5 30 10 5 5
LIPSCOMB TX 78 51 77 52 84 / 5 50 10 0 10
PAMPA TX 76 49 73 50 82 / 5 50 10 5 5
SHAMROCK TX 82 54 77 52 83 / 0 50 20 5 5
WELLINGTON TX 85 54 78 52 84 / 0 50 30 5 5

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

17/18

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1220 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFs/

VFR through the afternoon with few to scattered cu and increasing
high clouds. A south wind will continue in the 12 to 17 knot range
along with a few higher gusts.

MVFR ceilings should return late this evening/overnight at all North
and Central Texas TAF sites and prevail through the morning hours
Thursday.

FOX

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

82/14

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1219 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

JGG

.Prev Discussion... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/

SCHNEIDER

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

17/18

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1129 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...Warm air advection above the shallow cool air mass
behind the outflow boundary quickly weakened this morning as the
boundary stalled. Convection has diminished and removed mention of
pops for remainder of the morning. Clouds will linger over the
Brush Country into the afternoon and lowered max temps a few
degrees. Moisture/instability axis will be over the Brush Country
this afternoon with the possibility of isolated storms forming
over the far northwest part of the forecast area. But chances will
be slight with the strong cap over the region.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 89 74 87 75 88 / 10 10 10 10 20
VICTORIA 88 73 89 70 86 / 10 10 20 10 30
LAREDO 97 75 99 73 94 / 10 10 20 10 10
ALICE 93 73 92 73 91 / 10 10 10 10 20
ROCKPORT 86 76 84 74 87 / 10 10 10 10 20
COTULLA 95 73 96 71 91 / 20 10 20 10 20
KINGSVILLE 91 74 90 74 90 / 10 10 10 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 85 76 84 75 85 / 10 10 10 10 20

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Aransas...Calhoun...Kleberg...Nueces.

GM...NONE.

TMT/89...SHORT TERM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1129 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Aransas...Calhoun...Kleberg...Nueces.

GM...NONE.

TMT/89...SHORT TERM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1120 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.UPDATE...
it appears that the front has begun to stall out across our srn
counties and the nrn permian basin. as the winds slowly come
around to the west on the caprock...the shallow post-frontal moisture
will be gradually scoured out. however...in the rolling
plains...winds are expected to remain nrly and turn northeasterly
this afternoon...and maintain higher moisture levels especially in
the eastern and southern rolling plains. as for the t-storm
forecast for later this afternoon...it appears development chances
for our area they will be limited to a small region in the srn
rolling plains where the moisture may prove sufficient in the
vicinity of some convergence and lift along the remnant frontal
boundary. given the nebulous large-scale ascent...storm coverage
will likely be isolated...but instability will likely support the
threat of large hail and damaging wind gusts for any storms that
develop. we have made only minor changes to the weather grids but
we will update the hazardous weather outlook to reflect the
somewhat less supportive environment and lower expected coverage
of t-storms.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/

AVIATION...
The outflow enhanced frontal boundary was still making southward
progress and should result in mostly northerly low level flow
through midday KPVW and KLBB, perhaps all day at KCDS. Moisture
will remain a premium within the northerly flow although obviously
improved over the exceptionally dry pre-boundary environment. By
sometime in the afternoon, low level flow should recover back to
south or even maybe southwest both KPVW and KLBB and back to the
dry air regime. The best chance for thunder through the daytime
hours will be south of KCDS. Overnight, we are expecting lift to
increase through the Panhandle as an upper trough passes late.
This will enhance thunder chances at KCDS in particular, where a
PROB30 is supported late tonight. RMcQueen

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/

SHORT TERM...
AN OUTFLOW ENHANCED BOUNDARY WAS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A REMAINING MODEST
PUSH THAT SHOULD GET SOMEWHERE INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ZONES
BEFORE STALLING OUT LATER THIS MORNING. A DRY LINE ALSO CONTINUED TO
RETREAT NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR AREA. MOISTURE WILL
POOL BETTER TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES ALTHOUGH LATEST HRRR AND
RAP LESS THAN CERTAIN THAT DRIER AIR WONT RETURN MUCH OF THIS AREA
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CAPROCK IS EXPECTED TO BE
DOMINATED BY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS...OTHER THAN PERHAPS NORTHERN
AREAS BEHIND THE STALLED FRONT. SOUTHEAST WITH DECENT FORECAST
INSTABILITY AND A WEAK CAP VALID FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATER TODAY
AND ALSO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION RISK FOR SEVERE.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK A BIT NORTH BUT APPEARS UNLIKELY
TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED STORM CHANCES UNTIL AN UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL REINVIGORATE THE FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RELEASE CONVECTIVE ENERGY ESPECIALLY EASTERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT AT LEAST LOW CHANCE NOW EXPANDED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME RISK THE LATE NIGHT STORM
CHANCES COULD PROVE SEVERE...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT REASSESS IF
NEEDED FOR EXPLICIT MENTION. FEW CHANGES WITH TEMPERATURES.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
PRECIP AS WELL AS CLOUDS SHOULD BE MIGRATING SOUTHWARD BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS COOL NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS STAY IN PLACE INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BY
FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE THE EAST AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL MOVE IN AROUND SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. MODEL TRENDS FOR SATURDAY HAVE BEEN ON THE WET SIDE
LATELY BY PICKING UP ON A SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD AND JOINS
FORCES WITH FRONTOGENETIC LIFT. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH THAN THE
ECMWF BY GIVING THE SHORTWAVE MORE ENERGY TO WORK WITH. CONFIDENCE
IN HAVING PRECIP IS DECENTLY HIGH RELATIVELY SPEAKING AS THE
INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE IN PLACE. THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IS WITH HOW
HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE.

MORE PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES AND SURFACE FLOW TRIGGERS OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED
CONVECTION OVER NM WHICH TRANSLATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND
EXITS THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. NEXT ON DECK WILL BE AN UPPER
LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE INNER MOUNTAIN WEST THAT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE FA BY TUESDAY. SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BE
MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD DRY US OUT. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT WILL DEPEND ON
IF MOISTURE CAN BE PUSHED BACK INTO THE REGION QUICK ENOUGH. AS OF
NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER AND WE WILL
REMAIN DRY. AS SUCH THE FORECAST WILL LACK ANY MENTION OF PRECIP
LATE TUESDAY AND BEYOND. ALDRICH

LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

628 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY 15Z. WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE WITH A
BIT OF HEATING AND MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF GUSTS. ALTHO MVFR CIGS
HAVE HAD TROUBLE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT, CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR THE LOWER CIGS TO FORM. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING
EARLY IN THE AFTN. BOTH THE HRRR AND THE RAP DEVELOP SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTN ON A REMNANT OUTFLOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES.
THE 06Z NAM AND GFS ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SO
WILL INCLUDE SHRA/TSRA FOR KCLL, KUTS AND KCXO BETWEEN 18-00Z.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. 43

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS AS THIS IMPULSE LIFTS TOWARDS LOUISIANA... WITH LOW
RAIN CHANCES /20 POPS/ CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
THIS FEATURE EXITS THE REGION.

EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SEVERAL BOUNDARIES DRAPED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF OUR EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS AND STORMS... WITH OUTFLOW LOCATED FROM NEAR LUFKIN TO
COLUMBUS AND ANOTHER BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS TOWARDS GALVESTON BAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY
MAY HELP THESE BOUNDARIES LIFT FARTHER NORTH DURING THE DAY... AND
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING. UNFORTUNATELY... 00Z GUIDANCE DID NOT
INITIALIZE WITH THESE FEATURES AND DO NOT REFLECT ANY SIGNAL FOR
RAINFALL BUT THE 06Z NAM AND LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP ARE BEGINNING
TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS CLOSER TO THE COAST /WHERE THE SECOND BOUNDARY
LAY/ MAINTAIN SOME CAPPING THROUGH THE DAY AND THINK GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO
LIVINGSTON LINE TODAY... CLOSER TO THE NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON... SO ANY ACTIVITY THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
ADDITIONALLY... WITH NEARLY 2400 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5 C/KM OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLOUDS
SKIES THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST AND
MID 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND.

FOR TONIGHT... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING BUT MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUING
MENTION OF 20-30 POPS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A RESULT. AT
THE SAME TIME... A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SWINGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND AN UPPER LOW LIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO CANADA WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT... WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

ON THURSDAY... THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING
THE DAY... REACHING SOUTHEAST TEXAS THURSDAY EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION BUT GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LITTLE IF ANY UPPER
SUPPORT... THINK ONLY ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARDS
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... BUT MAY SEE SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING /LOW TO MID 60S INLAND/ AS DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWS FOR SKIES TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY... WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE RED RIVER.

THE 00Z GFS... ECMWF... AND CANADIAN ALL POINT TO SOME
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THIS SHORTWAVE AND
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE THERE ARE
SOME INCONSISTENCIES IN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE /LEADING TO
TRAJECTORY DIFFERENCES IN THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX/... ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE HIGH DURING THIS TIME WITH GFS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.8 INCHES AND
THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE SUNDAY TO MONDAY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY
AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE STATE.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY AND A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. ONSHORE WINDS RESUME SATURDAY AS THE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. ONSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS DEEPENS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TIDE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. 43

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 88 70 85 68 85 / 30 30 30 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 87 71 86 70 86 / 20 10 30 30 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 74 81 74 81 / 20 10 20 20 30

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

356 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS AS THIS IMPULSE LIFTS TOWARDS LOUISIANA... WITH LOW
RAIN CHANCES /20 POPS/ CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
THIS FEATURE EXITS THE REGION.

HUFFMAN

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY AND A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. ONSHORE WINDS RESUME SATURDAY AS THE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. ONSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS DEEPENS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TIDE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. 43

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 88 70 85 68 85 / 30 30 30 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 87 71 86 70 86 / 20 10 30 30 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 74 81 74 81 / 20 10 20 20 30

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

350 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...
AN OUTFLOW ENHANCED BOUNDARY WAS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A REMAINING MODEST
PUSH THAT SHOULD GET SOMEWHERE INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ZONES
BEFORE STALLING OUT LATER THIS MORNING. A DRY LINE ALSO CONTINUED TO
RETREAT NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR AREA. MOISTURE WILL
POOL BETTER TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES ALTHOUGH LATEST HRRR AND
RAP LESS THAN CERTAIN THAT DRIER AIR WONT RETURN MUCH OF THIS AREA
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CAPROCK IS EXPECTED TO BE
DOMINATED BY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS...OTHER THAN PERHAPS NORTHERN
AREAS BEHIND THE STALLED FRONT. SOUTHEAST WITH DECENT FORECAST
INSTABILITY AND A WEAK CAP VALID FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATER TODAY
AND ALSO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION RISK FOR SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...
PRECIP AS WELL AS CLOUDS SHOULD BE MIGRATING SOUTHWARD BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS COOL NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS STAY IN PLACE INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BY
FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE THE EAST AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL MOVE IN AROUND SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. MODEL TRENDS FOR SATURDAY HAVE BEEN ON THE WET SIDE
LATELY BY PICKING UP ON A SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD AND JOINS
FORCES WITH FRONTOGENETIC LIFT. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH THAN THE
ECMWF BY GIVING THE SHORTWAVE MORE ENERGY TO WORK WITH. CONFIDENCE
IN HAVING PRECIP IS DECENTLY HIGH RELATIVELY SPEAKING AS THE
INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE IN PLACE. THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IS WITH HOW
HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE.

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

05/51

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

1040 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary remains near the Virginia and North Carolina
border today, and drops into the Carolinas by Thursday. The front
lifts north as a warm front Thursday night. A cold front
approaches from the west early Friday and crosses the region
Friday afternoon and evening.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current water vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough tracking
across the Piedmont and this is depicted well by NAM/GFS 310/320K
theta surfaces. The regional radar mosaic shows a band of showers
tracking across the Piedmont with some isolated showers across
central and eastern VA. The surface analysis continues to show a
stationary front in vicinity of the VA/NC border. Considerable
cloud cover continues north of the boundary...with clearing south
of the boundary across ne NC. Morning fog is gradually
dissipating. Any stronger convection associated with the trough
lingers back over TN as it feeds on stronger instability over the
Deep South.

The shortwave trough pushes offshore by early afternoon. A chc of
showers will continue across the northern tier of the area through
midday. A region of subsidence in the wake of the trough should
lead to several hours of quiet conditions this afternoon across
most of the area. However, there is the potential for convection
developing in vicinity of the boundary across ne NC by mid-
afternoon. Weak flow will keep dewpoints in the 60s today. MLCAPE
is progged to range between 750-1000 J/KG in vicinity of the
boundary by afternoon. Severe weather is not anticipated, but
shear around 25-30kt and lift in the mixed phase later could
result in some stronger wind gusts and small hail. Highs today
range from around 70 north to around 80 south. Cooler along the
coast. Shortwave energy digs along the coast late tonight with
the best moisture being pushed offshore. Likely pops will continue
along the immediate coast through late tonight, tapering off to
chc inland. All pcpn is expected to be off the coast by early
Thursday morning. Mild tonight with lows in the mid/upper 50s
north, to low 60s south.

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS NEAR OF JUST
SOUTH OF THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
AFFECTING FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING.

ONSHORE WINDS AND MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY.
THIS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE WITH IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING UNTIL
AROUND NOON.

SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A CHANCE FOR TSTMS FOR THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCLUDED SHOWERS BEGINNING
AROUND 22-00Z. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE
NW LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER GENERALLY IMPROVES DURING
THE WEEKEND.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ631>638-
654-656-658.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1040 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

.Synopsis...
A stationary front will remain overhead for today and Thursday,
which will continue to be the focus for scattered showers and
thunderstorms. A cold front should finally sweep through the Mid
Atlantic on Friday. Much cooler air will arrive for the weekend.

.Near Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 1040 AM EDT Wednesday...

A decaying mesoscale convective system moved through the area this
morning. This situation has created a much more stable atmosphere,
which will make convective development more difficult to achieve.
Thus, chances of thunder were removed through the late morning and
early afternoon. Afterward, it was prudent to keep the chance of
showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening
for any possible redevelopment. The HRRR model does not show much
coverage, but enough destabilization to the west where the skies
have cleared could be the area to watch. Another large temperature
gradient should likely be in place due to the stationary front
overhead. High temperatures were tweaked in this update to reflect
this scenario.

For tonight, models are all over the place with respect to
potential precipitation. Some of the models indicate nothing
versus others entertaining the idea of more upstream
showers/storms moving into the area along the stationary frontal
boundary. Since this turned out to the the case last night, at
least a chance threat was maintained for showers tonight. At the
very least, if showers do not materialize, it will be a moist
night with areas of fog and drizzle due to low-level stratus that
would likely develop and get lifted up against the east side of
the mountains from the shallow easterly low-level wind.

.Short Term /Thursday through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

A stationary front will remain over the area through Thursday
night. This front will continue to be a focus for scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Storms on Thursday afternoon
may gel into a line with a few becoming strong to severe.
Confidence is low on severe potential as front is lacking jet
dynamics. However, breaks in the clouds, especially across the
south, will increase instabilities. Convection on Thursday
afternoon will help maintain relatively cool wedge on the east
side of the mountains through Thursday night.

A strong cold front will approach from the west early Friday
morning. With the front coming in during the morning and pushing
the wedge east, the atmosphere should remain stable enough for
mainly rain showers. Models move the front east of the Piedmont by
Friday afternoon. Another front will slide across the region on
Saturday. Light rain showers are possible over the mountains
during Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures will remain warmer than normal until the third front
crosses the region on Saturday. Generally, one can expect
temperatures in the west to range in the 70s with low to mid 80s
east.

.Long Term /Saturday Night Through Tuesday/...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

The upper level pattern will remain progressive as it becomes
quasi-zonal through early next week. Sunday looks to be mostly
dry with high pressure at the surface, but a frontal boundary will
once again sag into the region from the north and linger through
the early part of next week. This looks to keep a chance for some
showers in our forecast for Sunday night through Monday. A better
chance for precipitation exists by Tuesday as developing low
pressure moves out of the lower Mississippi valley. Temperatures
look to remain a few degrees below normal through this period.

.Aviation /14Z Wednesday through Sunday/...
As of 530 AM EDT Wednesday...

Stationary front remains over the forecast area with VFR conditions
south of the front and areas of MVFR/IFR just north of the front due
to stratus and fog. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will be found along the front through Thursday, which will make
flight conditions a bit of a challenge.

Extended Discussion...

A cold front will finally sweep through the area Friday. Showers
should end followed by clearing on Friday evening. Some MVFR ceilings
could linger into Saturday through the mountains. Otherwise, high
pressure should bring better flying weather throughout the region on
Sunday.

.RNK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

$$
Synopsis...PW
Near Term...PM/PW
Short Term...RCS
Long Term...MBS
Aviation...PM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
325 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift northward across the area early
today, followed by a cold front later in the day. Another frontal
boundary will cross the area late on Saturday. An area of low
pressure will strengthen across New England over the weekend and
move into southeast Canada through Monday. A couple of surface
troughs or frontal boundaries will cross the area Sunday and
Monday. High pressure is forecast to return to the area late
Monday into early Tuesday. An area of low pressure is expected to
lift a warm front across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. The low
is then expected to move across the area along with a cold front
Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure is then expected for
Friday.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 3 AM EDT, the cold front was propagating over far western
PA. Based on radar trends, expect that it should still be on track
to arrive this afternoon across our region.

Model soundings continue to show some meager instability (though
limited shear). Thus, have continued mention of thunderstorms.
Given the limited shear and instability, do not expect much of a
strong storm threat for our region.

However, there is a risk of heavy rain leading to poor drainage
flooding. Precipitable water values are well above normal, and
flow ahead of the front is relatively slow, so the concern would
be if any storms form well ahead of the front localized heavy
downpours are possible. The front is expected to sweep through the
region fast enough (and chance for any precipitation drops off
considerably behind the front), that the threat period for heavy
rain will be rather narrow.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A brief period of tranquil weather is expected tonight as our
region will be in between the cold front departing our region
today and the next cold front expected on Saturday. With some cold
air advection in the wake of the cold front today and a lack of
low clouds (unlike the last two nights), should see lows of 5 to
10 degrees lower than what we saw Thursday night.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
On Saturday, another cold front will move across the area. There
will remain some instability across the area, although PW values
are forecast to be less. However, the jet dynamics aloft could
help enhance the possibility for some moderate to heavy rainfall
with an showers/thunderstorms. There also is the possibility for
a few strong storms with gusty winds and/or small hail as CAPE
values could reach the low hundreds and shear 40-50+ knots.

Gusty winds are expected behind the frontal passage with gusts of
25 to 30 mph expected. Dry weather will return overnight Saturday
night, along with cooler temperatures. An area of low pressure
will strengthen to our north, while high pressure begins to build
to our west. This will keep a steady breeze across the area
overnight.

Low pressure will remain to our north on Sunday, with another
frontal boundary or surface trough expected to cross the area
later in the day. While PW values drop below 0.5 inches, which
would normally would indicate a precipitation free forecast, there
will be steep low level lapse rates, along with some higher RH
values in the low-mid levels. As a surface trough/cold front, and
short wave/vorticity impulse aloft slide across the area, there
could be some showers/sprinkles make their way into our area
during the day within the northwest flow. Winds are expected to be
gusty again, with gusts 25 to 35 mph. Dry conditions are expected
again overnight.

Yet another frontal boundary/surface trough is expected on
Monday. However, with limited lapse rates and moisture, and the
short wave/vorticity impulse already passed the area, no
precipitation is expected. However, an increase in clouds cover
and gusty afternoon winds of 25 to 30 mph are once again expected.
Dry weather will continue into Monday night as high pressure
builds briefly builds across the area.

From Tuesday through Wednesday, there remains timing differences
with the next weather system. A warm front is forecast to lift
toward the area while an area of low pressure moves along the
boundary Tuesday into Tuesday night. Another low is forecast to
move along the boundary and slowly move across the area Wednesday
into Thursday. We will keep a chance of showers through the period
from Tuesday through Thursday, although it will not likely rain
the whole time. High pressure is then expected move into the area
for Friday which should bring a return of dry weather.

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Low clouds generally in the MVFR category (though localized IFR
conditions are possible as well) will persist through at least 18z.
After 12Z, expect showers and a few thunderstorms to begin to move
into the region. The prime period for any showers and thunderstorms
will be in the 4 hours prior to the arrival of the cold front. At
this point the cold front is expected to pass through the region
between 18 and 00Z (from west to east).

Behind the cold front, expect conditions to quickly return to VFR
and remain VFR through Friday night.

OUTLOOK...

Saturday...Another cold frontal passage with additional showers and
thunderstorms which could lower CIGS and VSBYS to MVFR or IFR.
Gusty southwest winds 20-25 knots early, becoming west-northwest
behind the cold front.

Saturday night...VFR expected.

Sunday...Generally VFR. Gusty west-northwest winds 25-30 knots.

Sunday night...VFR expected.

Monday-Monday night...VFR with gusty west to northwest winds 25-30
knots during the day.

Tuesday...VFR early, lowering conditions through the day with rain
moving in.

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below small craft advisory conditions
today and tonight. An abrupt wind shift is possible this afternoon
from southerly and southeasterly winds to westerly and northwesterly
winds as a cold front moves over the region. However, wind gusts
should remain below 20 kt through this time except in the vicinity
of any thunderstorms that develop.

OUTLOOK...

Saturday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Cold
frontal passage late in the day, which could cause winds to gust
around 20 knots at times. Thunderstorms possible.

Saturday night-Monday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely
through the period with cold frontal passages Sunday and Monday.
Winds could approach gale force Sunday.

Tuesday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions likely. Winds may gust
around 20 knots at times as a warm front lifts into the area.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

$$
Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...Johnson
Short Term...Johnson
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Johnson/Robertson
Marine...Johnson/Robertson