Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/12/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS EUREKA CA
345 AM PDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER NW CA WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND INLAND AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AT THE COAST THROUGH MID
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW
FRIDAY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NW CA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...COOL TEMPERATURES OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. DESPITE THE COOL START STILL
EXPECT A FAIRLY WARM DAY DUE TO A LITTLE LESS ONSHORE WIND
LATER. NEAR COAST TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S AND TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE COASTAL INLAND PLAIN. THUS ANOTHER NICE SPRING DAY
FOR NW CA AS INLAND AREAS WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND ANOTHER
WARM AFTERNOON. THIS QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PAC WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
LINGERS AROUND 150W AND 40N. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OFFSHORE NW CA
SHOULD SEE OFFSHORE FLOW AND DECREASING MARINE STRATUS EACH DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN SUNSHINE COASTAL MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO RISE A BIT GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S...AND NEAR 70 ON WED. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS SHOULD WARM TO
JUST ABOVE NORMAL. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LOW WILL
PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THURSDAY...THEN GET PULLED NORTH EASTWARD
INTO THE MAIN JET STREAM FRIDAY. COASTAL STRATUS SHOULD INCREASE
SOMEWHAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW.
INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN WARM THURSDAY...THEN SEE COOLING FRIDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS START TO DROP. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO COME TOGETHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ASHORE SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN VERY LOW END CHANCE
POPS MAINLY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT EXPECT THOSE TO RISE
WITH TIME. CLIMO POPS...AFTER ALL...ARE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
NORTH COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR. JT/ST
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY AS
WEAK EASTERLY FLOW DRIES UP ANY LINGERING POCKETS OF STRATUS TUCKED
ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH SHIFTS WEST AND PROLONGS DRY, OFFSHORE FLOW. KML
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND STEEP SEAS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. ON TUESDAY MORNING...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SOUTHWARD TO JUST OFF
THECOAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SET UP
ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA. THE COMBINED WEATHER FEATURES HELP TO
MAINTAIN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE
EXPECTED ON THE OUTSIDE WATERS THIS MORNING. STEEP SEAS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED, WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 8 TO 10 FEET AND WAVE PERIOD OF
AROUND 8 TO 9 SECONDS THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
RELAX THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE
WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVE HEIGHTS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. UTILIZE RUC13 IN THE NEAR TERM THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION TO A BLEND OF HI-RES ARW ANDHI-RES NMM
MODELS TONIGHT. UTILIZE A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/GEM/OFFICIAL FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT
AVERAGE.
/RCL
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ475.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1135 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
THUNDERSTORMS MAINTAINING THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE OFF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO HAVE UPGRADED THE GRIDS TO INCLUDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
THE LATEST HRRR STILL SHOWS SOME PCPN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...AS A DISTURBANCE OVER
NORTHWESTERN CO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD. LTG STILL ONGOING SO
WL KEEP TSTMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE DIVIDE...FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH JUST RAIN SHOWERS FM THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE DROPPED TSTMS FM THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS
EVENING AS THOSE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED AND TSTMS NO LONGER ACTIVE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 721 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO DROP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AND THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE
IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PRODUCING TSTMS OVER NWRN CO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SUSPECT THIS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD BUT MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING SOME LOWER POPS TO THE URBAN CORRIDOR LATE
TONIGHT...THIS COULD BE THE FEATURE THAT COULD PRODUCE A TSTMS OR
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
COLORADO IS IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY WITH MAIN ELONGATED UPPER
TROF OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO SOUTH DAKOTA.
THERE IS WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES
INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THERE IS HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST
COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH FAVORED OROGRAPHIC FLOW
AND ALSO OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CYS RIDGE. COVERAGE WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED FURTHER EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY WITH A JET STREAK NOSING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WEAK UPWARD ASCENT ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COLORADO. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK
CONVERGENCE WITH FOCUS AREA ALONG PALMER DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FOCUSES HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA AND LESSER
AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS WYOMING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE LIFT ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK SUBSIDENCE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE...UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE AROUND DURING THE DAY TO CONTINUE LOW POPS IN MOST AREAS.
UPPER RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR AND MOISTURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES TO BRING A RENEWED...ALBEIT NOT
TERRIBLY HIGH...THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VARIABLE BUT
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD TREND TO SOUTHWESTERLY
IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AT KDEN. SOME RECENT HIRES MODELS SHOWING A
NORTHERLY PUSH AROUND 10Z...MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE CONVECTION NEAR
THE WYOMING BORDER WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PUSH. WITH
KFNL ALREADY GOING NORTHWESTERLY...HAVE ADDED THIS CHANGE GROUP
IN THE TAFS. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MAYBE A TSTM
MOVING OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SO WILL INCLUDE A VCSH TO THE KBJC...KDEN AND KAPA
TAFS.WINDS SHOULD TREND TO GO CLOCKWISE TO NORTHWESTERLY BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PUSH TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1120 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
...BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOMORROW...
CURRENTLY...PLEASANT SPRING DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE PLAINS. WINDS HAVE SWUNG AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL PUSH AND ARE GUSTING IN THE 20-30KT RANGE AT TIMES. CU FIELD
LOOKS PRETTY INACTIVE AS OF 2PM LOCAL TIME. A COUPLE STORMS...WITH
SOME SMALL HAIL...HAVE FORMED OVER THE EXTREME SE PLAINS...BUT
CURRENT ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NOT MUCH
DEVELOPMENT SEEN TO THE WEST. CURRENT SCT POPS OVER THE MTS MAY BE A
BIT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WITH STAY THE COURSE FOR NOW...WITH A COUPLE
HOURS OF HEATING LEFT THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW OVER THE MTS HAS LARGELY
ENDED PER WEB CAMS...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE
CONTDVD.
MAIN WX CONCERN WILL BE A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
MOVING INTO THE YELLOWSTONE AREA OF NW WY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO WRN CO LATE TONIGHT. LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS BRING A LINE
OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTS AND
ON TO THE PIKE PEAK REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. BASED ON
OTHER MODELS...EXTENT OF QPF MAY BE OVERDONE IN THE HRRR BUT THERE
ARE SOME SIGNS IN THE NAM THAT SHOW POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THROUGH
EARLY TUE MORNING. GFS IS DRY AND ARW/NMM ARE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN
THE HRRR. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN SCT POPS
FOR THE UPPER ARKANSAS AREA...AND ISOLD FOR THE PIKES PEAK AREA
THROUGH TUE MORNING. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST THESE AREAS IF
THE TRENDS FOR THIS DISTURBANCE CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.
TOMORROW...A BREAK IS EXPECTED AFTER THE MORNING CONVECTION BEFORE A
SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP DEVELOPS TUE AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE AND INCREASED UPSLOPE OVER THE SRN FRONT RANGE.
TEMPS ALOFT TOMORROW RISE A FEW DEGREES...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY PRECIP DEVELOPS AND HOW EXTENSIVE IT IS...THIS MAY LIMIT THE
HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE NRN
AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...OVER THE MTS AND N OF HGWY 50. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
TUE NIGHT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
WITH REGARDS TO PCPN OVR THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM SHOW SPOTTY
ISOLD TO SCT PCPN ACRS THE AREA IN THE EVENING HOURS...AND THEN FOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT HAS LITTLE OR NO PCPN . THE GFS SHOWS A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD PCPN IN THE EVENING...AND HAS A BLOB OF PERSISTENT PCPN
OVER PIKES PEAK...TELLER...FREMONT...WESTERN PUEBLO AND EL PASO
COUNTIES. IT APPEARS THAT THE DIFFERENCE IF THAT THE GFS HAS LOW TO
MID LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW THAT IS GENERATING THE PCPN...WHEREAS THE NAM
HAS NORTHERLY SFC WINDS AND SWRLY MID LEVEL WINDS. FOR NOW...WL KEEP
SCT PCPN CHANCES OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE
NIGHT.
ON WED AN UPR TROF AND A COUPLE DISTURBANCE MOVE ACRS THE STATE AND
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK FAIRLY GOOD FROM THE I-
25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW TO MID
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM GENERALLY KEEPS THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS DRY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE GFS SPREADS PCPN
ACRS THE PLAINS...BUT IN THE EVENING HOURS THE NAM ALSO SPREADS PCPN
ACRS THE PLAINS WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE AREA...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUM. AS THAT
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TOWARD THU MORNING...THE PCPN WL
GENERALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT SOME PCPN MAY LINGER INTO THU
MORNING OVR THE FAR SERN AREAS. WED WL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPS ACRS THE AREA BEING BELOW AVERAGE.
THU AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE WRN STATES AND THE FORECAST AREA
LOOKS DRY ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS. ON FRI A SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING
BY OVR NE AND KS...WL SEND A FRONT INTO SERN CO. FRI GENERALLY
LOOKS DRY BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS OVR THE MTN
AREAS. THE UPR RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY SAT NIGHT AS A NEW SYSTEM MOVES
FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...WITH MORE MSTR MOVING
ACRS THE AREA FOR SUN AND MON BRINGING A RETURN TO UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR PCPN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS/-TSRA TO KCOS AND KPUB LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM A
GENERAL EASTERLY DIRECTION AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY.
OVERALL...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS DURING THE NEXT 24H.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1044 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
THUNDERSTORMS MAINTAINING THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE OFF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO HAVE UPGRADED THE GRIDS TO INCLUDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
THE LATEST HRRR STILL SHOWS SOME PCPN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...AS A DISTURBANCE OVER
NORTHWESTERN CO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD. LTG STILL ONGOING SO
WL KEEP TSTMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE DIVIDE...FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH JUST RAIN SHOWERS FM THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE DROPPED TSTMS FM THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS
EVENING AS THOSE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED AND TSTMS NO LONGER ACTIVE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 721 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO DROP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AND THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE
IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PRODUCING TSTMS OVER NWRN CO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SUSPECT THIS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD BUT MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING SOME LOWER POPS TO THE URBAN CORRIDOR LATE
TONIGHT...THIS COULD BE THE FEATURE THAT COULD PRODUCE A TSTMS OR
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
COLORADO IS IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY WITH MAIN ELONGATED UPPER
TROF OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO SOUTH DAKOTA.
THERE IS WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES
INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THERE IS HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST
COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH FAVORED OROGRAPHIC FLOW
AND ALSO OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CYS RIDGE. COVERAGE WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED FURTHER EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY WITH A JET STREAK NOSING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WEAK UPWARD ASCENT ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COLORADO. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK
CONVERGENCE WITH FOCUS AREA ALONG PALMER DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FOCUSES HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA AND LESSER
AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS WYOMING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE LIFT ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK SUBSIDENCE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE...UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE AROUND DURING THE DAY TO CONTINUE LOW POPS IN MOST AREAS.
UPPER RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR AND MOISTURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES TO BRING A RENEWED...ALBEIT NOT
TERRIBLY HIGH...THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VRB BUT GENERALLY SLY WINDS
THIS EVENING SHOULD TREND TO SWLY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AT KDEN.
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAYBE A TSTM MOVING OFF THE
FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR AFT MIDNIGHT SO WL INCLUDE A
VSSH TO THE KBJC...KDEN AND KAPA TAFS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL CO AT THIS TIME CONTINUES TO TRACK
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...COOPER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
934 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over Canada will shift southeast across New England
tonight and offshore on Thursday. A warm front will approach from
the south Thursday night, then a cold front will cross the area west
to east on Friday. A second cold front will move through on
Saturday, followed by high pressure Sunday and Monday. Temperatures
will moderate Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure moves
offshore. A frontal boundary by midweek is then forecast to approach
from the south.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
An upper air analysis showed an elongated closed mid level low from
Lake Erie to Delaware. There is a decent short wave at 500 mb with
this feature as well with one centered near Delaware. The radar and
earlier visible satellite imagery showed an MCV was tied to the mid
level feature across Maryland to Delaware (this stemmed from
yesterday`s convection in Kentucky). This MCV is now spinning down
as radar trends are showing the showers shrinking in areal coverage
and also weakening considerably from a few hours ago. The upper air
analysis also showed much less 700-500 mb lift with this feature
now. As a result, the showers are expected to continue to weaken as
the feature slowly shifts eastward or dissipates. Some guidance such
as the HRRR and RAP want to develop some more showers though
overnight mainly south of Philadelphia. This may be associated with
the lingering 500 mb feature overhead. We are not all that sure how
much shower activity redevelops as the features look weak, therefore
we just left some slight chc pops overnight.
Otherwise, much more in the way of cloudiness across the southern
areas where some deeper moisture remains. Some drier air though
trying to undercut this from the north has eroded the lower clouds
some farther south. The flow is light therefore lower clouds should
fill back in some for the southern to central areas, with less cloud
cover still expected farther to the north. Some fog should develop
especially across the southern zones where rain has occurred however
the overall extent across the area will depend on the cloud cover.
The hourly grids were adjusted with the latest observations, then
the lamp/lav guidance was blended in. No major changes were made to
the low temperatures at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
This forecast was a 50 50 blend of the 12z/11 GFS/NAM mos. The
12z/11 ECMWF suggests that the temps might be 2F warmer than now
forecast. Some uncertainty regarding cloud cover is the reasoning
for not warming temperatures any further than now posted. Light
wind... trending easterly. Any pops are low and at this time kept a
dry forecast. The KI is lower and very little sign of any
instability burst nor do I see any significant lift factor.
Any fog and low clouds may be slow to lift on the Delmarva.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The first part of the extended period, i.e., Thursday night through
Sunday, features trofing aloft with several shortwaves and
associated frontal systems moving through the mid-Atlantic region.
These fronts will bring in cooler air and a chance for showers
through much of the weekend. On Monday the upper trof starts to
move away and the flow aloft becomes more zonal with possibly some
weak ridging. From early through mid-week temperatures will
moderate and the chance for showers will return by mid-week.
For Thursday night, the frontal boundary now to our south will be
approaching or moving through part of the forecast area as a warm
front. The forecast has increasing chance PoPs during the night and
also areas of fog as the front approaches.
On Friday the first cold front will push through from west to east
during mid day to mid-afternoon, preceded by showers. There is some
marginal instability forecast so a chance for isold/sctd t-storms
was also included. Precip should be over by evening along the coast
and by mid-afternoon over east PA.
The air mass behind the first front is not particularly cold so max
temps on Saturday should be only slightly cooler than Friday.
However a second cold front is forecast to cross the area on
Saturday with an associated shortwave trof aloft and some forcing
for UVV. This will bring more showers during the day with perhaps
an isolated t-storm also.
Sunday will be cool and breezy behind the second front with a closed
low aloft and strong cyclonic flow. This usually brings a good
amount of diurnal cu during the day especially north of PHL.
Going into next week, the upper low moves away and some ridging
aloft begins. High pressure moves overhead on Monday and then off
the coast on Tuesday. This will lead to moderating temperatures, but
also increasing moisture with SW return flow around the high.
Monday and Tuesday look dry but a chance of showers and
thunderstorms was included for Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
Tonight...Weakening showers end later this evening from near KILG to
near KACY southward, then perhaps a few more showers develop
overnight. VFR TO MVFR ceilings, with the greatest chance for
ceilings to remain VFR is at KABE and KTTN. There appears to be some
drier air arriving from the north this evening as the lower clouds
erode some, therefore the extent of MVFR ceilings through the night
is of lower confidence.
Some fog should develop especially later tonight at KMIV, KACY, KILG
and KRDG, however the extent is of lower confidence as it may depend
on the cloud cover. Light southwesterly winds, becoming light and
variable overall.
Thursday...Some local fog early, then any MVFR ceilings should
improve to VFR. Light and variable winds, becoming east then
southeast 4-8 knots in the afternoon.
OUTLOOK...
Thursday Night...MVFR/IFR conditions developing with low clouds,
fog and drizzle possible.
Friday...Showers and thunderstorms possible with temporary
MVFR/IFR conditions.
Friday Night...VFR conditions expected.
Saturday...Additional showers and thunderstorms possible with
temporary MVFR/IFR conditions. SW winds gusting 20-25 kt early,
becoming WNW later in the afternoon.
Sunday and Monday...Mostly VFR. Gusty NW winds 15-25 kt possible.
&&
.MARINE...
No headlines through Thursday. Light wind...generally 5 to 10 kt. Seas
at or below 3 feet (A persistent se 2 foot 9 second swell with
very little wind wave). Water temperatures are near normal...the
pool of anomalously warm water from the winter having shifted seaward
(eastward).
As a heads up: the rip current information will appear as a subcategory
within the marine section from this time forward (unless there is
a future change).
Rip Currents: Our Surf Zone Forecast (SRF) will begin May 20th,
530 am with twice a day forecasts through September (~530 AM
Day1, ~9 PM for the next day). Our forecasts will be updated at
any time we receive information that the forecast is significantly
in error, including the rip current formation risk (low, moderate,
high), which will be checked against the 1015 AM beach patrol
reports from June 13-Labor Day. This surf zone forecast page will
be news headlined on our home page www.weather.gov/phi for easy
access.
Also beginning May 20, on our homepage, we will host an Experimental
National Beach Forecast page which will have umbrellas locating
most of the beaches, whereby you can click and obtain beach specific
information. We think you`ll like it, though it may need some
adjusting of our crowded beach locations. There will be social
media announcements, both facebook and twitter. Additionally we
will post a nice 90 second science piece on rip current recognition.
OUTLOOK...
Thursday night through Saturday...Winds and seas expected to
remain below small craft advisory levels.
Saturday night and Sunday...NW winds may gust to 25 kt or higher.
Monday...Winds and seas below SCA levels.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...AMC/Gorse
Near Term...Gorse
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...AMC
Aviation...AMC/Gorse
Marine...AMC/Drag
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
634 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO VIRGINIA
WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, IT WILL
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT WITH AN ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ON FRIDAY, A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE RADAR DISPLAY IS RATHER `LIT UP` WITH LIGHT PRECIP
ECHOS...BUT LITTLE IS HITTING THE GROUND WITH THE DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE. THESE OCNL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE LESS
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NRN NJ AND NE PA REGIONS. THE HRRR IS
SHOWING A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM
MOVING ACROSS THE DELMARVA AREAS OVERNIGHT. OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING ACTIVITY OVER THESE AREAS TOO...SO WE HAVE
RAISED THE POPS FOR THESE AREAS FOR TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA AND IN THE LOW
50S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE FCST FOR WED CONTINUES TO TREND WORSE FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT AND UPPER SHORT WAVES
WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT ACROSS THE REGION. WE HAVE INCREASED BOTH THE
SKY AMTS AND POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS. MUCH OF THE RAINS WILL
LIKELY BE DURING THE MORNING. THE 12Z NAM IS MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
HOWEVER...LINGERING SHOWERS MUCH OF THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WERE CUT
FOR ALL AREAS. UP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...CLOUD SEE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS UP NORTH COULD
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...BUT WE`LL HAVE TO SETTLE FOR
LOW/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
ONE.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THEN ON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN AGAIN ON LATE SATURDAY WITH SECONDARY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND FINALLY ON TUESDAY DUE TO OVERRUNNING WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT.
BUT AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER FIRST 10
DAYS OF THE MONTH. ANTICIPATED QPF IS AROUND 0.50 INCH OR LESS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THIS
TIME PERIOD AND THEN RUN 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD.
PRIMARY FORECAST INPUT WAS 12Z SUPERBLEND. WPC EXTENDED RANGE
GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR POPS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CLOUDY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA AND A
WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH/WEST WILL KEEP SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT...MORE MOISTURE WILL
POOL ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED. LOWER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE MOSTLY AT KILG/KMIV AND KACY. WE HAVE SOME LOWER
CONDITIONS AT KPHL/KPNE ALSO...BUT CONFID IN THIS IS LOWER THAN
OTHER AREAS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND MUCH OF WED.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY: POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS,
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 15
KNOTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.
SUNDAY: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A CONTINUATION OF RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UNDER THE
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE TONIGHT. THEY MAY TREND MORE ERLY OR SERLY WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TSTM ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS AND DELAWARE
BAY.
OUTLOOK...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
324 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO VIRGINIA
WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, IT WILL
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ON FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE RADAR DISPLAY IS RATHER `LIT UP` WITH LIGHT PRECIP ECHOS...BUT
LITTLE IS HITTING THE GROUND WITH THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. THESE
OCNL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE NRN NJ AND NE PA REGIONS. THE HRRR IS SHOWING A MORE
CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM MOVING ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AREAS EARLY TONIGHT. OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING
ACTIVITY OVER THESE AREAS TOO...SO WE HAVE RAISED THE POPS FOR THESE
AREAS FOR TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE CWA AND IN THE LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE FCST FOR WED CONTINUES TO TREND WORSE FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT AND UPPER SHORT WAVES
WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT ACROSS THE REGION. WE HAVE INCREASED BOTH THE
SKY AMTS AND POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS. MUCH OF THE RAINS WILL
LIKELY BE DURING THE MORNING. THE 12Z NAM IS MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
HOWEVER...LINGERING SHOWERS MUCH OF THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WERE CUT
FOR ALL AREAS. UP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...CLOUD SEE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS UP NORTH COULD
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...BUT WE`LL HAVE TO SETTLE FOR
LOW/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
ONE.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THEN ON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN AGAIN ON LATE SATURDAY WITH SECONDARY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND FINALLY ON TUESDAY DUE TO OVERRUNNING
WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT.
BUT AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER FIRST 10
DAYS OF THE MONTH. ANTICIPATED QPF IS AROUND 0.50 INCH OR LESS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THIS
TIME PERIOD AND THEN RUN 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD.
PRIMARY FORECAST INPUT WAS 12Z SUPERBLEND. WPC EXTENDED RANGE
GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR POPS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CLOUDY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA AND A WARM
FRONT TO THE SOUTH/WEST WILL KEEP SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT...MORE MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG
THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED. A TSTM IS POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT. LOWER
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE MOSTLY AT KILG/KMIV AND KACY. WE HAVE
SOME LOWER CONDITIONS AT KPHL/KPNE ALSO...BUT CONFID IN THIS IS
LOWER THAN OTHER AREAS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND MUCH OF
WED.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY: POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS,
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 15
KNOTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.
SUNDAY: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A CONTINUATION OF RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UNDER THE
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE TONIGHT. THEY MAY TREND MORE ERLY OR SERLY WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TSTM ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS AND DELAWARE
BAY.
OUTLOOK...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...O`HARA
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
NWS PRODUCTS LIKE THESE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS WILL BE IN MIXED
CASE.
MARINE...ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
THEIR INFLUENCE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHEN OUR NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION. MARINERS COULD POSSIBLY
SEE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EASTERLY SURGES THAT BRING CAUTIONARY
WIND CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 84 72 84 72 / 10 10 20 0
Fort Lauderdale 85 75 85 73 / 10 10 20 10
Miami 86 73 86 73 / 10 10 20 10
Naples 88 70 87 71 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
811 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...
The combination of weakening Atlc ridge and a upr disturbance
moving across the Gulf of Mexico has increased mid/higher cloud
cover. The morning sounding data from XMR shows some moistening
has occurred since this time Tue...however a fairly strong cap
remains in place abv H85. Atmospheric winds remain light blo 4k ft
and an east coast breeze will develop along the coast by mid day.
The ltst HRRR guid indicates some potential for showers late this
afternoon over the mid Florida ridge ascd with an E/W cst breeze
merger. Confidence remains too low to mention measurable pcpn in
fcst at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conds continue areawide into tonight. No obstructions to sky
or visibility.
&&
.MARINE...
Favorable conditions will continue today through midweek with
presence of light gradient wind. An onshore sea breeze will
present highest wind at the immediate coast early through mid
afternoon. Seas around 2 to 3 feet.
&&
.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Pendergrast
LONG TERM....Ulrich
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
244 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...
243 PM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE WARM FRONT LIES ALONG OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF I-80 WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE
LOW 70S SOUTH OF IT. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO PULL NORTH
WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. FINALLY SEEING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATES CAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A BIT LESS CAPE. SHEAR VALUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE VERY
LOW...BUT THINKING A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
GENERAL ROTATION ALOFT. ONLY EXPECTING ONE TO PERHAPS A FEW STORMS
TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. SO
FAR THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED TAME WITH LIMITED VERTICAL GROWTH.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
QUICKLY BECOMES STABLE WITH A DECENT SURFACE INVERSION. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES BAGGY WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS COMBINED WITH RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS FROM THE FRONT AND
RECENT RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG OVERNIGHT. NOT CERTAIN THAT WE
WILL SEE DENSE FOG...BUT AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY. TEMPS DROP INTO
50S THIS EVENING AND THEN HOLD STEADY OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY IS STILL LOOKING WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 SOUTH OF I-80.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 60S ALONG THE LAKE. CLOUD
COVER WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN HOW MUCH AREAS AWAY FROM THE
LAKE WILL WARM. IF ANY LOCATION GETS A BIT MORE SUNSHINE...COULD SEE
TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 80S. THE MAIN FORCING STAYS WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. A STOUT CAP WILL ALSO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
214 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY FRIDAY WHILE TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
ANTICIPATE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO BE DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING A STRONG CAP FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING OF THE LOW
PASSAGE AND THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE...THINK THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS GREATLY LIMITED AND WOULD ANTICIPATE ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE REGION TO BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE AS IT
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE...A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET OUT
AHEAD OF THE LOW TRACK WILL RESULT IN DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA AND AREAS NORTH...ALONG WITH BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT SWINGS AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SWITCH IN WINDS WILL HELP DRIVE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE LOW TO MID
70S THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
60S...AND ONLY MID/UPPER 50S FOR SATURDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
COULD CAUSE SOME LIGHT RAIN...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FOCUSED IN THE
MID LEVELS WITH DRY LOW LEVELS INDICATED IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE QPF. UPPER PATTERN IS
PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. EXPECT PRIMARILY DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH SOME LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES
COULD BRING A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
RAIN IS SHIFTING NORTH AND EXPECTING A FEW HOURS OF DRIZZLE TO
HANG ON BEHIND THE MAIN SHOWERS. MVFR VSBY IS BEING OBSERVED
THROUGH WILL COUNTY AND IS SLOWLY IMPROVING. THEREFORE KEPT MVFR
VSBY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN AND TIED TO THE DRIZZLE. CIGS SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTN. MDW HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF TRYING TO
SCATTER OUT OF THE IFR LAYER...BUT IS STRUGGLING TO DO SO. IFR
CIGS ARE ALSO BEING REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS WILL COUNTY...SO KEPT
A PESSIMISTIC FORECAST GOING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MIXING
GETS GOING AND IFR CIGS SCATTER OUT SOONER THAN FORECAST.
EXPECTING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
TO BE DRY. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND A DECENT SURFACE
INVERSION FORMS. VSBYS WILL FALL BACK TO IFR OR MVFR WITH IFR TO
LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOMORROW WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTN.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CIG AND VSBY TRENDS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING AND VALUES.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
214 PM CDT
A WARM FRONT LIES SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN. WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS POOLING NEAR THE FRONT
HAVE RESULTED IN FOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...THUS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUES FOR THE REST
OF TODAY THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST
BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD RIDGE STRENGTHENS
AND REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...10 PM TUESDAY TO 10
AM WEDNESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 10
AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
220 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
1125 AM CDT
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LIES OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO ABOUT I-80
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SKIES ARE SCATTERING OUT OVER ILX/S CWA THIS
MORNING. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS FEATURES UPWARD OF 1000 J/KG NEAR
PONTIAC. THE VORT MAX THAT WILL HELP FORCE CONVECTION IS OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL. SO BETWEEN THICK CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA AND FORCING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...THINKING STRONGER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL
WELL SOUTH OF OUR WARNING AREA. BACKED OFF ON CHANCES OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. KEPT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIP WILL END QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE FORCING PUSHES
EAST OF THE REGION. THEREFORE...BACKED OFF ON POPS THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
NIGHT.
JEE
&&
.SHORT TERM...
339 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH SHOWER TRENDS THIS
MORNING...RETURNING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG...AND THEN WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING...STEADY STREAM OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS RESULTING IN CONTINUED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIME FRAME. DURING THIS
TIME...MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO OBSERVE ON/OFF PERIODS OF
PRECIP AND WHILE ANY INSTABILITY STILL REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE
CWA...DONT ANTICIPATE ANY THUNDER THIS MORNING FOR ALL AREAS.
SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS SITUATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AT THIS TIME.
GUIDANCE STILL CONSISTENT WITH THIS BOUNDARY PUSHING FURTHER NORTH
BUT WITH BEING MODIFIED DUE TO THE LAKE. BY THE AFTERNOON EXPECT
THIS BOUNDARY TO BE SITUATED THROUGH THE CWA FROM NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS BACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA...WITH AREAS IN FAR
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LIKELY STAYING ON THE COOL SIDE. NOT ONLY WILL
THIS BE A FACTOR WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY...BUT WILL BE KEY WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS EVENINGS UPDATE TO HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH COOL ONSHORE
FLOW PROVIDING DRASTICALLY VARYING CONDITIONS FROM THE LOW 70S
EXPECTED SOUTH OF I80.
AFTER A LIKELY LULL IN PRECIP LATE MORNING/MIDDAY...STILL AM
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA. IN
PARTICULAR...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS OCCURRING
IN THE PRESENCE OF LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY YIELD SURFACE
BASE/ML CAPE AT OR ABOVE 1000J/KG. SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA
SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 19 TO 21Z FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE I80/I88
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL AT THIS TIME FOR
THIS DEVELOPMENT TO BE FURTHER SOUTH. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVELS AND
LOW BULK SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF ANY WIDESPREAD
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN SOUTH OF I80. KEEPING THE AREA MORE BROAD AT
THIS TIME BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE THE DAY SHIFT TO GAIN A BETTER
HANDLE ON PLACEMENT LATER THIS MORNING. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND FORCING...BUT AS SOME WEAK ASCENT
WILL REMAIN PRESENT TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
214 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY FRIDAY WHILE TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
ANTICIPATE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO BE DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING A STRONG CAP FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING OF THE LOW
PASSAGE AND THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE...THINK THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS GREATLY LIMITED AND WOULD ANTICIPATE ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE REGION TO BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE AS IT
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE...A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET OUT
AHEAD OF THE LOW TRACK WILL RESULT IN DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA AND AREAS NORTH...ALONG WITH BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT SWINGS AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SWITCH IN WINDS WILL HELP DRIVE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE LOW TO MID
70S THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
60S...AND ONLY MID/UPPER 50S FOR SATURDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
COULD CAUSE SOME LIGHT RAIN...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FOCUSED IN THE
MID LEVELS WITH DRY LOW LEVELS INDICATED IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE QPF. UPPER PATTERN IS
PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. EXPECT PRIMARILY DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH SOME LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES
COULD BRING A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
RAIN IS SHIFTING NORTH AND EXPECTING A FEW HOURS OF DRIZZLE TO
HANG ON BEHIND THE MAIN SHOWERS. MVFR VSBY IS BEING OBSERVED
THROUGH WILL COUNTY AND IS SLOWLY IMPROVING. THEREFORE KEPT MVFR
VSBY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN AND TIED TO THE DRIZZLE. CIGS SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTN. MDW HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF TRYING TO
SCATTER OUT OF THE IFR LAYER...BUT IS STRUGGLING TO DO SO. IFR
CIGS ARE ALSO BEING REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS WILL COUNTY...SO KEPT
A PESSIMISTIC FORECAST GOING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MIXING
GETS GOING AND IFR CIGS SCATTER OUT SOONER THAN FORECAST.
EXPECTING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
TO BE DRY. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND A DECENT SURFACE
INVERSION FORMS. VSBYS WILL FALL BACK TO IFR OR MVFR WITH IFR TO
LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOMORROW WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTN.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CIG AND VSBY TRENDS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING AND VALUES.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
214 PM CDT
A WARM FRONT LIES SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN. WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS POOLING NEAR THE FRONT
HAVE RESULTED IN FOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...THUS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUES FOR THE REST
OF TODAY THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST
BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD RIDGE STRENGTHENS
AND REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1252 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
1125 AM CDT
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LIES OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO ABOUT I-80
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SKIES ARE SCATTERING OUT OVER ILX/S CWA THIS
MORNING. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS FEATURES UPWARD OF 1000 J/KG NEAR
PONTIAC. THE VORT MAX THAT WILL HELP FORCE CONVECTION IS OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL. SO BETWEEN THICK CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA AND FORCING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...THINKING STRONGER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL
WELL SOUTH OF OUR WARNING AREA. BACKED OFF ON CHANCES OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. KEPT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIP WILL END QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE FORCING PUSHES
EAST OF THE REGION. THEREFORE...BACKED OFF ON POPS THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
NIGHT.
JEE
&&
.SHORT TERM...
339 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH SHOWER TRENDS THIS
MORNING...RETURNING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG...AND THEN WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING...STEADY STREAM OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS RESULTING IN CONTINUED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIME FRAME. DURING THIS
TIME...MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO OBSERVE ON/OFF PERIODS OF
PRECIP AND WHILE ANY INSTABILITY STILL REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE
CWA...DONT ANTICIPATE ANY THUNDER THIS MORNING FOR ALL AREAS.
SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS SITUATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AT THIS TIME.
GUIDANCE STILL CONSISTENT WITH THIS BOUNDARY PUSHING FURTHER NORTH
BUT WITH BEING MODIFIED DUE TO THE LAKE. BY THE AFTERNOON EXPECT
THIS BOUNDARY TO BE SITUATED THROUGH THE CWA FROM NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS BACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA...WITH AREAS IN FAR
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LIKELY STAYING ON THE COOL SIDE. NOT ONLY WILL
THIS BE A FACTOR WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY...BUT WILL BE KEY WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS EVENINGS UPDATE TO HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH COOL ONSHORE
FLOW PROVIDING DRASTICALLY VARYING CONDITIONS FROM THE LOW 70S
EXPECTED SOUTH OF I80.
AFTER A LIKELY LULL IN PRECIP LATE MORNING/MIDDAY...STILL AM
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA. IN
PARTICULAR...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS OCCURRING
IN THE PRESENCE OF LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY YIELD SURFACE
BASE/ML CAPE AT OR ABOVE 1000J/KG. SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA
SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 19 TO 21Z FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE I80/I88
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL AT THIS TIME FOR
THIS DEVELOPMENT TO BE FURTHER SOUTH. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVELS AND
LOW BULK SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF ANY WIDESPREAD
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN SOUTH OF I80. KEEPING THE AREA MORE BROAD AT
THIS TIME BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE THE DAY SHIFT TO GAIN A BETTER
HANDLE ON PLACEMENT LATER THIS MORNING. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND FORCING...BUT AS SOME WEAK ASCENT
WILL REMAIN PRESENT TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
339 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE MAJORITY OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE CWA WHILE CLOUD
COVER LIKELY DIMINISHES AND WITH A WARMER AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE...HAVE MAINTAINED WEDNESDAYS HIGH TEMPS OF AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STILL
MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH
INSTABILITY AXIS AND STRONGEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE WELL WEST OF
THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THIS POTENTIAL IS APPEARING TO BE ON
THE LOW SIDE. DONT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT AT THIS TIME AS
ITS STILL POSSIBLE FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST TO MAINTAIN
SOME OF ITS STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN CWA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. ESPECIALLY AS SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE MAIN
INSTABILITY AXIS COULD SWING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. BUT AT THIS
TIME...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO TO PAN OUT WILL BE FOR ANY
APPROACHING STORMS TO BE ON THE DIMINISHING TREND. STILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS PERIOD THOUGH MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN CWA GIVEN
SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO THE EXTENT OF THIS POSSIBLE
DIMINISHING TREND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
RAIN IS SHIFTING NORTH AND EXPECTING A FEW HOURS OF DRIZZLE TO
HANG ON BEHIND THE MAIN SHOWERS. MVFR VSBY IS BEING OBSERVED
THROUGH WILL COUNTY AND IS SLOWLY IMPROVING. THEREFORE KEPT MVFR
VSBY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN AND TIED TO THE DRIZZLE. CIGS SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTN. MDW HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF TRYING TO
SCATTER OUT OF THE IFR LAYER...BUT IS STRUGGLING TO DO SO. IFR
CIGS ARE ALSO BEING REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS WILL COUNTY...SO KEPT
A PESSIMISTIC FORECAST GOING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MIXING
GETS GOING AND IFR CIGS SCATTER OUT SOONER THAN FORECAST.
EXPECTING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
TO BE DRY. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND A DECENT SURFACE
INVERSION FORMS. VSBYS WILL FALL BACK TO IFR OR MVFR WITH IFR TO
LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOMORROW WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTN.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CIG AND VSBY TRENDS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING AND VALUES.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
317 AM CDT
CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS...EXPECT WAVES TO BE IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY. ELSEWHERE WAVES WILL BE LESS FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WITH
THE SHORTER FETCH LENGTH. THE GRADIENT THAT WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN CREATING THE HIGHER WINDS TO 30 KT
AT TIMES THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN BY THE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EASTERLY THEN BEGIN
TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH TODAY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER
IOWA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
LAKE THEN TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY
EVENING AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...KEEPING A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY
AND LIKELY SATURDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1149 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
1125 AM CDT
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LIES OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO ABOUT I-80
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SKIES ARE SCATTERING OUT OVER ILX/S CWA THIS
MORNING. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS FEATURES UPWARD OF 1000 J/KG NEAR
PONTIAC. THE VORT MAX THAT WILL HELP FORCE CONVECTION IS OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL. SO BETWEEN THICK CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA AND FORCING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...THINKING STRONGER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL
WELL SOUTH OF OUR WARNING AREA. BACKED OFF ON CHANCES OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. KEPT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIP WILL END QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE FORCING PUSHES
EAST OF THE REGION. THEREFORE...BACKED OFF ON POPS THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
NIGHT.
JEE
&&
.SHORT TERM...
339 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH SHOWER TRENDS THIS
MORNING...RETURNING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG...AND THEN WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING...STEADY STREAM OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS RESULTING IN CONTINUED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIME FRAME. DURING THIS
TIME...MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO OBSERVE ON/OFF PERIODS OF
PRECIP AND WHILE ANY INSTABILITY STILL REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE
CWA...DONT ANTICIPATE ANY THUNDER THIS MORNING FOR ALL AREAS.
SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS SITUATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AT THIS TIME.
GUIDANCE STILL CONSISTENT WITH THIS BOUNDARY PUSHING FURTHER NORTH
BUT WITH BEING MODIFIED DUE TO THE LAKE. BY THE AFTERNOON EXPECT
THIS BOUNDARY TO BE SITUATED THROUGH THE CWA FROM NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS BACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA...WITH AREAS IN FAR
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LIKELY STAYING ON THE COOL SIDE. NOT ONLY WILL
THIS BE A FACTOR WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY...BUT WILL BE KEY WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS EVENINGS UPDATE TO HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH COOL ONSHORE
FLOW PROVIDING DRASTICALLY VARYING CONDITIONS FROM THE LOW 70S
EXPECTED SOUTH OF I80.
AFTER A LIKELY LULL IN PRECIP LATE MORNING/MIDDAY...STILL AM
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA. IN
PARTICULAR...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS OCCURRING
IN THE PRESENCE OF LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY YIELD SURFACE
BASE/ML CAPE AT OR ABOVE 1000J/KG. SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA
SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 19 TO 21Z FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE I80/I88
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL AT THIS TIME FOR
THIS DEVELOPMENT TO BE FURTHER SOUTH. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVELS AND
LOW BULK SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF ANY WIDESPREAD
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN SOUTH OF I80. KEEPING THE AREA MORE BROAD AT
THIS TIME BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE THE DAY SHIFT TO GAIN A BETTER
HANDLE ON PLACEMENT LATER THIS MORNING. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND FORCING...BUT AS SOME WEAK ASCENT
WILL REMAIN PRESENT TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
339 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE MAJORITY OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE CWA WHILE CLOUD
COVER LIKELY DIMINISHES AND WITH A WARMER AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE...HAVE MAINTAINED WEDNESDAYS HIGH TEMPS OF AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STILL
MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH
INSTABILITY AXIS AND STRONGEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE WELL WEST OF
THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THIS POTENTIAL IS APPEARING TO BE ON
THE LOW SIDE. DONT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT AT THIS TIME AS
ITS STILL POSSIBLE FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST TO MAINTAIN
SOME OF ITS STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN CWA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. ESPECIALLY AS SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE MAIN
INSTABILITY AXIS COULD SWING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. BUT AT THIS
TIME...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO TO PAN OUT WILL BE FOR ANY
APPROACHING STORMS TO BE ON THE DIMINISHING TREND. STILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS PERIOD THOUGH MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN CWA GIVEN
SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO THE EXTENT OF THIS POSSIBLE
DIMINISHING TREND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
MANY CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM FOR AVIATION INTERESTS...MAINLY
WITH POCKETS OF RAIN THIS MORNING AND IFR CIGS. THE CONTINUED EAST
WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER THE GRADIENT
DOES SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SO EXPECT THE
SPEEDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM 10-14KT DOWN TO AROUND 4-6KT BY
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT POSSIBLY SEEING NEW PRECIP OR
CONVECTION DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF TAF SITES. THE LULL IN PRECIP
COULD ALLOW SOME LIFT TO THE CIGS AND APPROACH LOW END MVFR CONDS
WITH BASES AROUND 1200-1500FT AGL...BUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET CIGS
ARE POISED TO FALL BACK TOWARDS IFR WITH BASES OVERNIGHT AROUND
400-600FT AGL. SOME GUIDANCE HAS HINTED THAT BASES COULD FALL
LOWER...BUT THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SO
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
317 AM CDT
CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS...EXPECT WAVES TO BE IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY. ELSEWHERE WAVES WILL BE LESS FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WITH
THE SHORTER FETCH LENGTH. THE GRADIENT THAT WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN CREATING THE HIGHER WINDS TO 30 KT
AT TIMES THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN BY THE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EASTERLY THEN BEGIN
TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH TODAY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER
IOWA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
LAKE THEN TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY
EVENING AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...KEEPING A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY
AND LIKELY SATURDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
105 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA TODAY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN THE MID 50S AND MID 60S. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGHS INTO THE
70S. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT...WITH FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND FEATURING COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS SURGE OF HIGHER
THETA E AIR ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT SETS THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING
OVERALL SCENARIO THUS FAR TODAY WITH MAIN AREA OF RAIN MOVING AWAY
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF
INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE. IF THE HRRR HOLDS TRUE THEN A BAND OF
SHOWERS WOULD EXPAND AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND THEN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WOULD PERSIST
INTO TUESDAY. THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE TAKING PLACE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH A NE TREND SO SEE NO REASON NOT TO
INCREASE TO HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A MESS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SOME IN THE NE AND STEADY
MAYBE RISING IN THE SW DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PROGRESS NORTH THE
FRONT MAKES.
MAIN WAVE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING WITH FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW
AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT ASSESS SITUATION.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
AS LONG WAVE TROUGH EJECTS THROUGH THE PLAINS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL MOVE BACK IN WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MAINTAINED
CHC TO LIKELY POPS THOUGH THIS TIME FRAME WITH DRYING BEHIND IT AS
WAVE DEPARTS...FRONT IS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS UPPER LOW
OVER CANADA SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH SENDING TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL WITH
A SERIES OF WAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE FLOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OVER FEW DAYS WARRANTING AT LEAST SOME MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FRI NGT INTO SAT AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
MAINLY IFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD JUST NORTH OF SFC WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EDGE TO
JUST SOUTH OF THE US 30 CORRIDOR BY LATER TODAY. MOIST/BROAD
ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO SUPPORT PERIODS
RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID AFTN HOURS. COULD SEE SOME ISO
THUNDER AFTER 16-17Z BUT POINT CHANCES REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A VCTS
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1004 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN IA AND
INTO CENTRAL IL. IN THE DVN CWA...THIS BOUNDARY WAS JUST NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 FROM ABOUT GALESBURG TO BURLINGTON TO OTTUMWA. THE
FRONT SHOULD SHIFT SOMEWHAT NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
EASTERN IA. SUNSHINE WAS OCCURRING IN SOUTHEAST IA AND WESTERN IL
WITH SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG. SHEAR IS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY EXCEPT
FOR RIGHT ON THE BOUNDARY WHERE ANY RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM
UPDRAFT WILL BE ABLE TO BE STRETCHED RIGHT ON THE BOUNDARY. AWAY
FROM THE BOUNDARY SHEAR IS VERY WEAK SO ANY TORNADO THAT CAN FORM
WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND WEAK AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY.
THERE IS A UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HRRR
DEVELOPING CONVECTION BY AROUND NOON OR 1 PM. A NEGATIVE IS
YESTERDAY THERE WAS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND A STRONG WAVE APPROACHING
AND THAT HAS SHIFTED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL MONITOR THE
CLOUD TRENDS AND BOUNDARY LOCATION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS PRODUCED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN OF
1 TO 3 INCHES... WITH THE HEAVIEST OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
IA WHICH WAS LEADING TO FLOODING ON THE ENGLISH RIVER. RADAR
SHOWS ANOTHER RAMPING UP OF COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
FROM NORTHERN MO THROUGH WEST CENTRAL IL LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES LATER TDY WILL SEE PERIOD
OF DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY AM. THEN
RENEWED CONVECTION EXPECTED WEDNESDAY PM/EVE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT STORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SEVERE RISK IS NOT ZERO
LATER TODAY BUT LIMITED AND PERHAPS SIMILAR TO THAT OF YSTDY TO
A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO GIVEN WEAK SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT OVER
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHWEST IL AND SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH CAPES 250-500 J/KG FOR SHALLOW CIRCULATIONS
POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE MODULATED BY THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH
COOLEST READINGS LIKELY NORTH WHERE STAYED AT OR BELOW COOLEST
GUIDANCE WITH LOWER 60S... WHILE WARMEST FAR SOUTH (LOWER TO FEW
MID 70S) WHERE BEST CHC FOR FEW BREAKS IN CLOUDS.
TONIGHT... ANY PRECIP TO FOCUS MORE OVER IL COUNTIES EARLY THIS
EVENING WHILE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. EVENTUALLY WILL SEE
A DRY PERIOD OVER THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH INCOMING SUBSIDENCE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE
PASSING TROUGH. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH WET GROUND... BUT TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH DRIER E/NE FLOW TO MENTION ATTIM. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM AND THEN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT USHERS IN A COUPLE OF WAVES AND COOL...BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND. A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS SHAPING
UP FROM WEDNESDAY AND A POTENTIAL FROST HEADLINE FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY...WITH DIGGING SHRTWV TO OUR WEST...THINK THE POPS ON
THURSDAY AM ARE TOO FAST. WEAK H85 MOISTURE CONV IS THE ONLY REAL
LARGE SCALE FORCING TO MOVE INTO THE SE AROUND 18Z. HAVE GONE WITH
SCHC POPS ACROSS A SMALL AREA. NOW IF THERE IS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
TONIGHT THAT SPILLS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN THIS WHOLE
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED. AT THIS TIME...H85 JET AND
OTHER NOCTURNAL STORM PARAMETERS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS. LETS DIVE
INTO WHAT IS MOST LIKELY.
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO W IA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. WITH WEAK
H5 RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA...SUNLIGHT WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT ACROSS
THE AREA. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S. THERE ARE SOME
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AFTER DRYING EAST WINDS
TODAY. IF MOISTURE RETURN CAN BE REALIZED AND THE SUN COMES
OUT...THE MEAN SBCAPE SOUTH OF I80 COULD BE CLOSE 2000 J/KG. WITH
THE EJECTING WAVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AOA 40 TO 45 KTS AND
PERPENDICULAR TO THE COLD FRONT. SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS COULD FORM
ALONG I80...WHERE COINCIDENTALLY THE WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE.
THIS COULD AID TO INCREASE LLVL SHEAR AND POSE A TORNADO THREAT FROM
SUPERCELLS. NOW... STORMS COULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS BEFORE THEY
REACH THE CWA AROUND 00Z. HIRES GUIDANCE HAS A BOWING FEATURE AT
THIS TIME. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT WE COULD SEE MORE OF WIND THREAT
WITH EMBEDDED TORNADOES ONCE THE STORMS GROW UPSCALE. ISOLATED
STORMS WOULD POSE A HAIL...WIND AND TOR THREAT. CURRENTLY THE SPC
HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY. THE MAIN WHAT IFS TOMORROW
ARE...MOISTURE RETURN...WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS...AND DO WE SEE
SUNLIGHT. IF THESE OCCUR AS FORECAST...SEVERE WEATHER WOULD
DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE. ONCE STORMS AND RAIN EXIT THE AREA...A DRIER
COOLER PATTERN SETS IN.
NW H5 FLOW WILL USHER IN A SERIES OF WAVES AND RAIN CHANCES IN THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S. ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT ...H85 TEMPS NEAR -
4C ARE PROG OVER THE NORTH. IF WINDS CAN SLACKEN...THERE COULD BE A
THREAT FOR FROST. LATE IN THE EXTENDED THE FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL
AND WOULD SUPPORT WARMING TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THIS MORNING WITH BOUTS
OF VFR AT BRL ON SOUTH... WHILE MVFR TO LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS... FOG
AND SHOWERS AT CID ... DBQ AND MLI REST OF THIS AM. ALL SITES
ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER TDY INTO EVE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME... BUT COVERAGE MORE SCATTERED THUS HANDLED WITH VCSH
WORDING AFT 18Z THROUGH 01Z. TONIGHT THE CONCERN SHIFTS TO FOG
POTENTIAL. SOME OF THE RECENT HRRR VIS PLOTS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH
LIFR FOG OVERNIGHT... BUT OTHER MODELS NOT SO. WHILE THE GROUND
IS WET AND SKIES LIKELY PARTIALLY CLEARING... THE PRESENCE OF
EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT DRYING MAKE FOR UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW
LOW VISIBILITIES WILL GO. FOR NOW FEEL MOST COMFORTABLE WITH
ADVERTISING IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
RADAR ESTIMATES 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST 24
HRS OVER THE ENGLISH RIVER BASIN WITH THE HEAVIEST FALLING
OVER THE HEADWATERS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
THE ENGLISH RIVER... WITH KALONA ABOVE ACTION STAGE AND FAST
APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE AND LIKELY TO CREST JUST ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE... THE WAPSIPINICON RIVER IS SHOWN
TO CLIMB ABOVE ACTION STAGE WEDNESDAY AM DUE TO FORECASTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH... WHICH LOOKS TO BE A BIT HIGH
BASED ON TRENDS AND SO LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON REACHING ACTION
STAGE. OTHERWISE... SEVERAL OTHER SITES MAINLY OVER EASTERN IA ARE
SEEING MODEST WITHIN BANK RISES. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
TODAY WITH THE HEAVIEST OCCURRING MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF IL THIS
AM... BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH ARCING SCATTERED CONVECTION LIFTING
THROUGH NORTHERN MO FOR POTENTIAL OF IMPACTING ENGLISH BASIN AND
LEADING TO FURTHER RISES. OTHERWISE... DONT FORESEE ANY OTHER HYDRO
CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS. NEXT ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED WED PM AND EVE
WILL ADD ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1 INCH IN MANY LOCATIONS... AND MAY RESULT
IN RENEWED RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH
THE ENGLISH RIVER BASIN BEING MOST SUSCEPTIBLE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...MCCLURE
HYDROLOGY...MCCLURE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
646 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS PRODUCED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN OF
1 TO 3 INCHES... WITH THE HEAVIEST OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
IA WHICH WAS LEADING TO FLOODING ON THE ENGLISH RIVER. RADAR
SHOWS ANOTHER RAMPING UP OF COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
FROM NORTHERN MO THROUGH WEST CENTRAL IL LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES LATER TDY WILL SEE PERIOD
OF DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY AM. THEN
RENEWED CONVECTION EXPECTED WEDNESDAY PM/EVE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT STORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SEVERE RISK IS NOT ZERO
LATER TODAY BUT LIMITED AND PERHAPS SIMILAR TO THAT OF YSTDY TO
A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO GIVEN WEAK SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT OVER
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHWEST IL AND SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH CAPES 250-500 J/KG FOR SHALLOW CIRCULATIONS
POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE MODULATED BY THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH
COOLEST READINGS LIKELY NORTH WHERE STAYED AT OR BELOW COOLEST
GUIDANCE WITH LOWER 60S... WHILE WARMEST FAR SOUTH (LOWER TO FEW
MID 70S) WHERE BEST CHC FOR FEW BREAKS IN CLOUDS.
TONIGHT... ANY PRECIP TO FOCUS MORE OVER IL COUNTIES EARLY THIS
EVENING WHILE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. EVENTUALLY WILL SEE
A DRY PERIOD OVER THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH INCOMING SUBSIDENCE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE
PASSING TROUGH. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH WET GROUND... BUT TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH DRIER E/NE FLOW TO MENTION ATTIM. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM AND THEN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT USHERS IN A COUPLE OF WAVES AND COOL...BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND. A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS SHAPING
UP FROM WEDNESDAY AND A POTENTIAL FROST HEADLINE FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY...WITH DIGGING SHRTWV TO OUR WEST...THINK THE POPS ON
THURSDAY AM ARE TOO FAST. WEAK H85 MOISTURE CONV IS THE ONLY REAL
LARGE SCALE FORCING TO MOVE INTO THE SE AROUND 18Z. HAVE GONE WITH
SCHC POPS ACROSS A SMALL AREA. NOW IF THERE IS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
TONIGHT THAT SPILLS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN THIS WHOLE
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED. AT THIS TIME...H85 JET AND
OTHER NOCTURNAL STORM PARAMETERS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS. LETS DIVE
INTO WHAT IS MOST LIKELY.
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO W IA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. WITH WEAK
H5 RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA...SUNLIGHT WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT ACROSS
THE AREA. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S. THERE ARE SOME
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AFTER DRYING EAST WINDS
TODAY. IF MOISTURE RETURN CAN BE REALIZED AND THE SUN COMES
OUT...THE MEAN SBCAPE SOUTH OF I80 COULD BE CLOSE 2000 J/KG. WITH
THE EJECTING WAVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AOA 40 TO 45 KTS AND
PERPENDICULAR TO THE COLD FRONT. SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS COULD FORM
ALONG I80...WHERE COINCIDENTALLY THE WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE.
THIS COULD AID TO INCREASE LLVL SHEAR AND POSE A TORNADO THREAT FROM
SUPERCELLS. NOW... STORMS COULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS BEFORE THEY
REACH THE CWA AROUND 00Z. HIRES GUIDANCE HAS A BOWING FEATURE AT
THIS TIME. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT WE COULD SEE MORE OF WIND THREAT
WITH EMBEDDED TORNADOES ONCE THE STORMS GROW UPSCALE. ISOLATED
STORMS WOULD POSE A HAIL...WIND AND TOR THREAT. CURRENTLY THE SPC
HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY. THE MAIN WHAT IFS TOMORROW
ARE...MOISTURE RETURN...WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS...AND DO WE SEE
SUNLIGHT. IF THESE OCCUR AS FORECAST...SEVERE WEATHER WOULD
DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE. ONCE STORMS AND RAIN EXIT THE AREA...A DRIER
COOLER PATTERN SETS IN.
NW H5 FLOW WILL USHER IN A SERIES OF WAVES AND RAIN CHANCES IN THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S. ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT ...H85 TEMPS NEAR -
4C ARE PROG OVER THE NORTH. IF WINDS CAN SLACKEN...THERE COULD BE A
THREAT FOR FROST. LATE IN THE EXTENDED THE FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL
AND WOULD SUPPORT WARMING TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THIS MORNING WITH BOUTS
OF VFR AT BRL ON SOUTH... WHILE MVFR TO LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS... FOG
AND SHOWERS AT CID ... DBQ AND MLI REST OF THIS AM. ALL SITES
ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER TDY INTO EVE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME... BUT COVERAGE MORE SCATTERED THUS HANDLED WITH VCSH
WORDING AFT 18Z THROUGH 01Z. TONIGHT THE CONCERN SHIFTS TO FOG
POTENTIAL. SOME OF THE RECENT HRRR VIS PLOTS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH
LIFR FOG OVERNIGHT... BUT OTHER MODELS NOT SO. WHILE THE GROUND
IS WET AND SKIES LIKELY PARTIALLY CLEARING... THE PRESENCE OF
EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT DRYING MAKE FOR UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW
LOW VISIBILITIES WILL GO. FOR NOW FEEL MOST COMFORTABLE WITH
ADVERTISING IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
RADAR ESTIMATES 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST 24
HRS OVER THE ENGLISH RIVER BASIN WITH THE HEAVIEST FALLING
OVER THE HEADWATERS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
THE ENGLISH RIVER... WITH KALONA ABOVE ACTION STAGE AND FAST
APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE AND LIKELY TO CREST JUST ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE... THE WAPSIPINICON RIVER IS SHOWN
TO CLIMB ABOVE ACTION STAGE WEDNESDAY AM DUE TO FORECASTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH... WHICH LOOKS TO BE A BIT HIGH
BASED ON TRENDS AND SO LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON REACHING ACTION
STAGE. OTHERWISE... SEVERAL OTHER SITES MAINLY OVER EASTERN IA ARE
SEEING MODEST WITHIN BANK RISES. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
TODAY WITH THE HEAVIEST OCCURRING MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF IL THIS
AM... BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH ARCING SCATTERED CONVECTION LIFTING
THROUGH NORTHERN MO FOR POTENTIAL OF IMPACTING ENGLISH BASIN AND
LEADING TO FURTHER RISES. OTHERWISE... DONT FORESEE ANY OTHER HYDRO
CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS. NEXT ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED WED PM AND EVE
WILL ADD ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1 INCH IN MANY LOCATIONS... AND MAY RESULT
IN RENEWED RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH
THE ENGLISH RIVER BASIN BEING MOST SUSCEPTIBLE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...MCCLURE
HYDROLOGY...MCCLURE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
212 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER EASTERN
KANSAS. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LOW. AT THE SURFACE...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS IN PLACE FROM JUST
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SNW HALF
OF THE CW (JUST NORTHWEST OF KMCK AND KGLD).
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SUBSIDENCE SPREADING OVER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST BY 12Z TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING PARTICULARLY
IN OUR NORTH AND EAST...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MEAN FLOW
WILL TEND TO BE PARALLEL TO FRONT AND POST FRONTAL ELEVATED
FRONTOGENESIS (850-700MB LAYER)...WHICH COULD SUPPORT TRAINING OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
REGARDING SEVERE THREAT...STRONG LINEAR/SPEED SHEAR IS IN PLACE AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING RAISING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS/MCS POTENTIAL. LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS LIMITED CAPE CURRENTLY
SHOW BY LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. GFS CURRENTLY REFLECTS CURRENT TRENDS
AND AT MOST HAS MU CAPE IN THE 500-900 J/KG RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER MU CAPE IN THE 900-
1500 J/KG RANGE IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE NAM ALREADY SEEMS TO BE RUNNING HIGH ON
TDS THIS IS LIKELY INFLUENCING ITS CAPE PROFILES. IF GFS CONTINUES
TO VERIFY I AM SKEPTICAL THAT WE WOULD SEE MORE THAN SHOWERS AND
MARGINAL THUNDERSTORMS. WITH INVERTED V PROFILES ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
STRONG WINDS WILL BE A PRIMARY THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS. IF
HIGHER CAPE (NAM) VERIFIES THEN WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED QUARTER SIZE
HAIL THREAT.
WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING
SHOULD END WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN ROTATES THROUGH THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRECIP
SIGNAL IN OUR SOUTHWEST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND I STUCK WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY I AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE ACTIVITY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS (MAINLY
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S).
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. THE RIDGE
REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN AND
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ROTATE IN FROM
THE WEST NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND AROUND A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WENT WITH DRY POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE BLEND GAVE 40 TO 50
PERCENT POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
SOME SUBSIDENCE TO OVERCOME AS THE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD THUS I
REDUCED POPS SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY...POPS REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AS THE LOW
MOVES OVER THE CWA AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD
BOTH TERMINALS ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR CIG/VIS CANT BE
RULED OUT WITH STRONGER STORMS/HEAVIER SHOWERS. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS POINT. MAIN
CHANGE WAS TO FINE TUNE TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON
LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AT BOTH TAF SITES...ALONG WITH
INCREASE IN WINDS AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
159 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER EASTERN
KANSAS. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LOW. AT THE SURFACE...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS IN PLACE FROM JUST
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SNW HALF
OF THE CW (JUST NORTHWEST OF KMCK AND KGLD).
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SUBSIDENCE SPREADING OVER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST BY 12Z TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING PARTICULARLY
IN OUR NORTH AND EAST...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MEAN FLOW
WILL TEND TO BE PARALLEL TO FRONT AND POST FRONTAL ELEVATED
FRONTOGENESIS (850-700MB LAYER)...WHICH COULD SUPPORT TRAINING OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
REGARDING SEVERE THREAT...STRONG LINEAR/SPEED SHEAR IS IN PLACE AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING RAISING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS/MCS POTENTIAL. LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS LIMITED CAPE CURRENTLY
SHOW BY LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. GFS CURRENTLY REFLECTS CURRENT TRENDS
AND AT MOST HAS MU CAPE IN THE 500-900 J/KG RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER MU CAPE IN THE 900-
1500 J/KG RANGE IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE NAM ALREADY SEEMS TO BE RUNNING HIGH ON
TDS THIS IS LIKELY INFLUENCING ITS CAPE PROFILES. IF GFS CONTINUES
TO VERIFY I AM SKEPTICAL THAT WE WOULD SEE MORE THAN SHOWERS AND
MARGINAL THUNDERSTORMS. WITH INVERTED V PROFILES ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
STRONG WINDS WILL BE A PRIMARY THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS. IF
HIGHER CAPE (NAM) VERIFIES THEN WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED QUARTER SIZE
HAIL THREAT.
WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING
SHOULD END WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN ROTATES THROUGH THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRECIP
SIGNAL IN OUR SOUTHWEST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND I STUCK WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY I AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE ACTIVITY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS (MAINLY
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S).
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD HOLDS THE PATTERN IT
HAS BEEN SHOWING THE PAST FEW DAYS. A TROUGH IS SITTING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THIS FLOW STAYS CONSISTENT UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY WHEN A CLOSED
LOW PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEWER MODEL RUNS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOW THEY ARE HANDLING THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW.
WITH THE LOW PUSHING EAST...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO JOG EAST OVER THE
CWA AND HOLDS THIS PATTERN THROUGH MID DAY SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY THE CLOSED LOW STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES AND TAPS INTO
MOISTURE FROM MEXICO. THIS BRINGS PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW FORCING IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BESIDES BULK
SHEAR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S FRIDAY WITH A DROP
INTO THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD
BOTH TERMINALS ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR CIG/VIS CANT BE
RULED OUT WITH STRONGER STORMS/HEAVIER SHOWERS. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS POINT. MAIN
CHANGE WAS TO FINE TUNE TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON
LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AT BOTH TAF SITES...ALONG WITH
INCREASE IN WINDS AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
304 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SECONDARY CLOSED ROTATION ACROSS SW
KANSAS. UPSTREAM A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL MONTANA
AND ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO. ANOTHER UPPER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS IN OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH COLD FRONT/WARM FRONT EAST OF OUR CWA. A
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM YUMA COUNTY TO NEAR KGLD
AND SOUTH.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...VORTICITY ALOFT ROTATING ROUND UPPER LOW IN
THE SOUTH AND NORTH OF OUR CWA WILL COMBINE WITH RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR CWA TO BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD
AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN OUR FAR SOUTH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW INITIATION ROUGHLY ALONG COLORADO STATE LINE AND EAST WHERE
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE WITH PEAK COVERAGE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER SUNRISE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING PUT AN END TO ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY.
REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TD VALUES AROUND 50-58 ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA AND HAVE LED TO SB CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG
(WHICH RAPIDLY DROPS OFF IN THE WEST). DEEP LAYER SHEER HOWEVER IS
UNIMPRESSIVE (BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER BELOW 30KT)...SO MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE IN STRENGTH. CONSIDERING CAPE IN OUR EAST I
WOULDN`T RULE OUT A A FEW NEAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (HAIL/WIND)
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE CAPE IN OUR EAST.
SHORT RANGE ANALYSIS ALSO CURRENTLY SHOWS STRONG LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
AND GOOD 0-3KM CAPE NEAR SURFACE TROUGH IN OUR EAST AND THIS COULD
SET THE STAGE FOR LANDSPOUT DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE LOW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
UPDRAFTS IN THIS REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH RIGHT NOW.
TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER IDAHO WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH BASE OF TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND A STRONG
JET STREAK/MID LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BEGIN TO ROTATE TOWARDS OUR CWA.
DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WITHIN SW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING
OUR CWA FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL CONTINUES TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD ALONG
COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON BL MOISTURE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CAPE VALUES
COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 500 J/KG TO 1500 J/KG. SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER WITH DEEP MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE (PWATS OVER
1.0") WE COULD SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 BY
LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD HOLDS THE PATTERN IT
HAS BEEN SHOWING THE PAST FEW DAYS. A TROUGH IS SITTING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THIS FLOW STAYS CONSISTENT UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY WHEN A CLOSED
LOW PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEWER MODEL RUNS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOW THEY ARE HANDLING THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW.
WITH THE LOW PUSHING EAST...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO JOG EAST OVER THE
CWA AND HOLDS THIS PATTERN THROUGH MID DAY SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY THE CLOSED LOW STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES AND TAPS INTO
MOISTURE FROM MEXICO. THIS BRINGS PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW FORCING IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BESIDES BULK
SHEAR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S FRIDAY WITH A DROP
INTO THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. PREVIOUS RUNS OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATED FOG
SLIDING INTO KMCK FROM THE NORTHEAST. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF OF THAT FORECAST AND HAVE DONE SO AS WELL IN THE TAFS.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW IN ADDITION TO A
COLD FRONT. THESE TWO ITEMS...COMBINED WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A RICHLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
ALLOW SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN STORMS. INDICATED THAT THREAT AT KGLD WHERE AM MORE CONFIDENT
STORMS WILL PASS OVER AT PRESENT TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1136 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SECONDARY CLOSED ROTATION ACROSS SW
KANSAS. UPSTREAM A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL MONTANA
AND ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO. ANOTHER UPPER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS IN OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH COLD FRONT/WARM FRONT EAST OF OUR CWA. A
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM YUMA COUNTY TO NEAR KGLD
AND SOUTH.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...VORTICITY ALOFT ROTATING ROUND UPPER LOW IN
THE SOUTH AND NORTH OF OUR CWA WILL COMBINE WITH RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR CWA TO BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD
AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN OUR FAR SOUTH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW INITIATION ROUGHLY ALONG COLORADO STATE LINE AND EAST WHERE
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE WITH PEAK COVERAGE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER SUNRISE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING PUT AN END TO ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY.
REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TD VALUES AROUND 50-58 ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA AND HAVE LED TO SB CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG
(WHICH RAPIDLY DROPS OFF IN THE WEST). DEEP LAYER SHEER HOWEVER IS
UNIMPRESSIVE (BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER BELOW 30KT)...SO MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE IN STRENGTH. CONSIDERING CAPE IN OUR EAST I
WOULDN`T RULE OUT A A FEW NEAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (HAIL/WIND)
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE CAPE IN OUR EAST.
SHORT RANGE ANALYSIS ALSO CURRENTLY SHOWS STRONG LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
AND GOOD 0-3KM CAPE NEAR SURFACE TROUGH IN OUR EAST AND THIS COULD
SET THE STAGE FOR LANDSPOUT DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE LOW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
UPDRAFTS IN THIS REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH RIGHT NOW.
TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER IDAHO WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH BASE OF TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND A STRONG
JET STREAK/MID LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BEGIN TO ROTATE TOWARDS OUR CWA.
DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WITHIN SW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING
OUR CWA FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL CONTINUES TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD ALONG
COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON BL MOISTURE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CAPE VALUES
COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 500 J/KG TO 1500 J/KG. SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER WITH DEEP MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE (PWATS OVER
1.0") WE COULD SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 BY
LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE UPPER PLAINS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED POPS ON AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT THIS
POINT HOWEVER WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING BOTH THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH MOVES TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING IN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE IT
BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES EAST. POPS INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY...AS
ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST...DRIVEN
BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER MANITOBA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. PREVIOUS RUNS OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATED FOG
SLIDING INTO KMCK FROM THE NORTHEAST. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF OF THAT FORECAST AND HAVE DONE SO AS WELL IN THE TAFS.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW IN ADDITION TO A
COLD FRONT. THESE TWO ITEMS...COMBINED WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A RICHLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
ALLOW SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN STORMS. INDICATED THAT THREAT AT KGLD WHERE AM MORE CONFIDENT
STORMS WILL PASS OVER AT PRESENT TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1135 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SEMI-DIFFUSE DRYLINE LOCATED ROUGHLY
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SALINA TO
MEDICINE LODGE. CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ERUPT ALONG THE DRYLINE
JUST TO THE EAST OF P28.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AIRMASS DESTABILIZING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AS THE CLEARING CONTINUES...WITH MOST AREAS SLOWLY BECOMING
UNCAPPED. LATEST HI-RES MODELS (NAMNEST/ARW) SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE OK
PANHANDLE ROTATES EAST. GIVEN SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS...THINK A BROKEN LINE OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. BETTER BULK SHEAR IS
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...SO THINK THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
BE LOCATED ALONG OR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400. AS THE SUPERCELLS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KS PROGRESS TO THE EAST...THERE IS A A REMOTE CHANCE
OF A TORNADO...WHERE 0-1 KM SHEAR IS AROUND 20 KTS...BUT THINK THIS
CHANCE IS VERY SLIM...AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MARGINAL AND BETTER A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN OK. PREFER TO EMPHASIZE THE LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE
FLINT HILLS AND SE KS. BUT THE FURTHER EAST THE STORMS GET THE LESS
ORGANIZED THEY WILL BE...GIVEN THE BETTER BULK SHEAR SHIFTING INTO
SW MO BETWEEN 00-06Z. SO MORE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING...
WITH MOST OF THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT.
SHOULD SEE A NICE WARMUP ON TUE...AS S-SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WITH MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 80S.
LATEST GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW THE LOW MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNING TO
THE AREA FOR TUE EVENING/NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KS. EXPECT THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL KS FOR LATE TUE EVENING OR POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT TUE...WITH CONVERGENCE INCREASING ENOUGH FOR A STRONG
STORM CHANCE...LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS FROM KSLN TO KCNU.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS INTO SE KS
ON WED...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE FLINT
HILLS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED. BOTH THE GFS/NAM/WRF SHOW THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OR BEING SITUATED ACROSS SE KS FOR LATE
WED AFTERNOON...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS SE KS FOR LATE WED AFTERNOON OR WED EVENING. SO WILL KEEP
POPS GOING FOR MOST OF SE KS FOR WED EVENING.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THU WILL PLAY OUT.
THE NAM/WRF BLOWS UP A COMPLEX OF STORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND
DROPS IT E-SE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR LATE
WED NIGHT. WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THIS COMPLEX FURTHER SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PREFER TO KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL KS DRY FOR NOW...AND GO
WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS SOLUTION.
KETCHAM
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME WILL PLAY OUT. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG THE MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THE GFS FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE FASTER AND
ALLOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO THE PLAINS FASTER...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A MORE UNSETTLED WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A LOT
DRIER AND KEEPS THE MOISTURE RETURN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE
KS/OK BORDER. FOR CONSENSUS SAKE PREFER THE WETTER GFS
SOLUTION...KEEPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
KETCHAM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MID-HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHOULD
SLOWLY PUSH EAST OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS BY DAYBREAK. DECOUPLED...LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS AND A MOISTENED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO PATCHY
FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH STRONGEST SIGNAL PERHAPS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED DURING
DAYTIME WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 55 86 63 77 / 60 10 20 30
HUTCHINSON 52 86 59 73 / 30 10 20 30
NEWTON 53 85 61 75 / 60 10 20 30
ELDORADO 55 85 63 79 / 70 10 20 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 55 86 64 80 / 70 10 20 20
RUSSELL 51 84 54 69 / 20 10 40 30
GREAT BEND 51 85 54 70 / 20 10 30 30
SALINA 52 85 58 72 / 30 10 30 30
MCPHERSON 51 85 58 72 / 30 10 30 30
COFFEYVILLE 56 84 65 82 / 70 10 20 40
CHANUTE 57 83 64 80 / 60 10 20 40
IOLA 54 83 64 79 / 60 10 20 40
PARSONS-KPPF 58 84 65 81 / 70 10 20 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KETCHAM
LONG TERM...KETCHAM
AVIATION...JMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
337 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. A STORM SYSTEM HAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN KY...ALREADY RESULTING IN MULTIPLE SEVERE AND TORNADO
WARNINGS. INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN KY HAS INCREASED WITH THE
LATEST NAM RUNS...WITH 2K J/KG EXPECTED BY 21Z. HOWEVER...HIGHEST
CAPE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS WEST OF THE CWA...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME LARGE HAIL MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA. FURTHERMORE STRONG LLVL WIND
SHEAR...WITH THE BULK OF THE SHEAR BELOW 4K FT...ALSO SHOWING A HIGH
POSSIBILITY FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. GIVEN THE
HISTORY OF THESE STORMS SO FAR...CAN ALSO EXPECT A LARGE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
HI RES MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME AGREEING ON THE SHORT
TERM...ESPECIALLY THE TRACK OF STORMS AS THEY HEAD INTO OUR REGION.
THIS MORNING THE HRRR INITIALIZED THE BEST...BUT DID NOT HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN KY. LATER ON...THE HI
RES ARW HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE DYING SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA AND
THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. IF THIS HELD TRUE IT SHOWED THE SYSTEM
COLD POOLING THEN DIVING SOUTHWARD...LIKELY ONLY CLIPPING OUR SW
COUNTIES. THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SEEMED TO COME INTO A SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE CURRENT CONVECTION TRAVELING ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER...WITH ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REACH NORTH CENTRAL KY AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 0
AND 6Z. BASED NEAR TERM POPS ON THIS IDEA...HOWEVER AM A BIT
CONCERNED THAT THIS IS A BIT SLOW...AS THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALREADY BE
EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AT THAT POINT.
SRLY WINDS AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
WHILE WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW DRY PERIODS...THE
WEATHER AS A WHOLE WILL REMAIN VERY UNSETTLED. THE PERIOD WILL
START AS A COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING ON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
FRONT SHOULD DEPART EARLY FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
RETURNING FOR FRIDAY. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. THE
QUESTION THEN TURNS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP
HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING
ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS ZONE...SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS
INTO NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN KY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
STILL IN CONTROL WITH SW WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.
THERE IS STILL A BIT OF CONCERN FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PORTION
OF THE TAF...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO WHERE THE STORMS ARE GOING TO DEVELOP/TRAVEL AND WHAT TAF
SITES THEY WILL IMPACTS WHEN. AS SUCH...TRIED TO TIME OUT BEST
CHANCES BUT KEPT WITH VCTS AT THIS TIME. AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
NEAR OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WILL UPDATE FOR BETTER
TIMING AND IMPACTS. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HIGH
WINDS...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE PRESENT IN SOME OF THESE STORMS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS WE HEAD INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...HOWEVER EXPECT LOW CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE TO STICK AROUND
MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1139 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
A LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA AT THE TIME OF
THE UPDATE...THOUGH ARE SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DIMINISHMENT UNDER
GENERALLY SE DOWNSLOPING FLOW. EXPECT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CLEARING AND WARMING
TAKES HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS NOW
DEVELOPED OVER PADUCAH/S AREA...AND IS TRACKING ENE. BASED ON THE
LATEST ANALYSIS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE HI-RES ARW HAS THE BEST
INITIALIZATION...SHOWING THIS MCS STARTING TO COLD POOL AS IT
REACHES CENTRAL KY AND THEN DIVING SOUTHWARD...WHILE SOME CELLS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK INTO EASTERN KY
GENERALLY BETWEEN 21 AND 0Z THIS EVENING.
LATEST GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MARGINAL CAPE AND
HELICITIES...BUT IS CONTINUING TO POINT AT DECENT LLVL WIND
SHEAR...WITH THE BULK OF THE SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 4KM. IF THIS
HOLDS TRUE...EXPECTING ANY OF THE DISCRETE/ISOLATED CELLS THAT
MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KY TO TAKE ON SOME BOWING
CHARACTERISTICS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THEREFORE BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. UPDRAFT POTENTIAL MAY SUPPORT SOME SMALL TO MAYBE
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...BUT OTHERWISE DOES NOT LOOK WORRISOME. AND
WHILE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH TRAINING OF THE STORMS WHICH WOULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING THREATS.
UNFORTUNATELY...JUST BECAUSE THE ARW IS INITIALIZING THE
BEST...DOES NOT MEAN THAT THIS IS HOW THE STORM THREAT WILL PLAY
OUT TONIGHT. AND JUST RELYING ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS COULD MISS
SOME OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS YET UNSEEN. EVEN THE HI RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE VARIANCE IN POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS IT NEARS THE REGION WITH UPDATES TO BE MADE
TO THE POPS AND WEATHER AS NECESSARY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT...EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN
PRECIP. THOUGH...DECIDED NOT TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE POPS AND
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. ALSO
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REFRESH HOURLY GRIDS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL KY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
CONCERNING SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...WARM AIR AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS COUPLED WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT
WILL YIELD SOME INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION. SHEAR IS MUCH MORE
IMPRESSIVE WITH ROUGHLY 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
THIS HAD PROMPTED SPC TO PUT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
A SLIGHT RISK. GIVEN THAT BOTH THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAX OUT
OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z...MIGHT LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
OF THE STORMS AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY EAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA
GIVEN LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN
BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS LOWER BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING TEMPORARY TAKES
HOLD. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE IN TOWARDS
DAWN...HELPING TO RE-CHARGE A WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN TAKE AIM AT EASTERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY PRECIPITATION AREA-
WIDE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
DEPENDING ON THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE A BRIEF DRY SPELL ENSUES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
DEEPER TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPIRALING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
EVENTUALLY SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS DIFFERING IN THE POSITION AND SMALLER SCALE FORCING
DETAILS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN SHOWERS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...COMPLETE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANY SITE THAT EXPERIENCES A THUNDERSTORM MAY SEE BRIEF IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCES OF THIS REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION
IN ANY TAF. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AS
SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR UNDERNEATH ANY
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WHERE GUSTS MAY BE NOTABLY GREATER. RAIN
SHOULD TAPER OFF JUST PRIOR TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JVM/GUSEMAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
922 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 918 AM EDT Tue May 10 2016
The line of showers and storms moving across the region this morning
will continue to push into east central KY over the next couple of
hours. Behind this satellite shows there should be at least partial
clearing ahead of the next round of storms. An area of storms moving
into west central KY this morning could affect southern IN and parts
of north central KY this afternoon. In addition, other cells are
expected to develop as instability increases and an upper level
trough swings through. SPC has upgraded much of the area to an
Enhanced risk this afternoon. The main threat still looks to be wind
damage with an isolated tornado not out of the question. The going
forecast is in pretty good shape, so just made some minor
adjustments to pops today.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 10 2016
...Active Period of Weather Through Mid Week...
...Several Chances for Strong to Severe Storms...
Today the upper pattern will feature SW flow ahead of a shortwave
trough rotating from the mid Mississippi River Valley up into the
Great Lakes. Ahead of this trough, a couple of ejecting pieces of
energy will rotate through our area, bringing rounds of showers and
storms.
This Morning...
A weakening, but widespread cluster of showers will push through our
CWA in the pre-dawn hours with periods of moderate to heavy rain and
a few lightning strikes. With a stable layer near the surface,
expect any wind gusts would be limited to less than 35 mph. Best
coverage will be west of I-65 between 4 and 8 AM EDT, along I-65
between 8 and 10 AM EDT, and east of I-65 between 10 AM and 1 PM
EDT. Most spots should see between a tenth and a quarter of an inch
through the morning, with a few locally higher amounts.
This Afternoon and Evening through Tonight...
As we move into the afternoon, stronger forcing will again arrive
ahead of the next piece of energy rotating through the parent
trough. As this occurs, low level winds will back along with overall
shear profile increasing in magnitude. Organized convection
including the potential for some supercells would be possible given
the setup. The conditional piece to the severe puzzle will be
whether we can destabilize after morning convection. If so, a
moderately unstable environment will develop for afternoon and
evening storms. Given the potential for backed surface winds and
differential heating/residual boundaries left over, agree with the
5% tornado threat indicated by SPC. Additional concerns will be
isolated damaging winds, large hail and lightning.
With a prolonged period of forcing in the SW flow aloft, showers and
storms could last well into the evening. Will continue with POPs in
the 70-80 percent range for later today into this evening. Expect
highs in the mid and upper 70s, but highly dependent on cloud cover.
Lows tonight should range in the low to mid 60s.
Wednesday - Wednesday Night...
Flow will be more zonal on Wednesday with a mainly dry period in the
morning. However, by afternoon focus along and south of a weakly
defined warm front across our region should allow for scattered
showers and storms. Data suggests a strongly unstable airmass on the
south side of the boundary as temps warm into the low 80s coupled
with Tds in the upper 60s. The overall shear profile will be less so
think t-storm mode would be more of pulse and multicell mode with an
isolated large hail and damaging wind threat. Excessive lightning
and very heavy rainfall would also be notable in this environment.
By Wednesday night shortwave ridging may briefly take over the
region, however models disagree on the timing so will leave
scattered mention in line with previous forecast. Wednesday night
lows should be in the mid 60s.
Thursday - Thursday Night...
An expansive upper trough slides out of the Plains toward our region
during this time, with a large area of ascent ahead of it. The
aforementioned frontal boundary lifts north of our region
establishing a warm sector. The increasing shear profile ahead of
the trough combined with a gradually destabilizing atmosphere should
lead to another severe threat for the Thursday afternoon and evening
time frame. Will be general with this for now, but wind and hail
would likely be the main threats. With several days of storms, hydro
concerns may become more of a concern by this time as well.
.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 10 2016
...Dry Friday and Friday evening...
...Deep upper trough over the weekend...
...More unsettled weather next week...
Friday and Friday evening...
Well...Drier and cooler air will push into the region for Friday
resulting in a quiet weather day. Transitory Surface High will push
thru bringing NWLY winds. Highs should warm into the lower-mid 70s
with overnight lows cooling into the lower 50s. Dew Points will drop
into the upper 40s. Its the pick day of the week!
Friday Night and Saturday Night...
This quiet/dry weather will be short lived as a fast moving mid-
level wave and cold front push through the region late Friday night
and early Saturday morning. Very strong mid and upper level jet
sliding down from Dakotas will pivot over the Ohio Valley and bring
another round of showers to the region. Strong CAA present with low
level thicknesses dropping significantly and coupled with the light
rain will make for a dreary and very unseasonably cool Saturday.
Highs Saturday will likely range from the low-mid 60s in the north
with mid-upper 60s across the south. Right now we have 65 at SDF
and 64 at LEX, but would not be surprised if temps barely crawl
above 60 north of I 64 Saturday with stout CAA.
Saturday night is dry with the amount of radiational cooling
predicated on cloud over from stalled out frontal boundary, but the
NE CWA will drop down to the lower 40s and perhaps even a 39 in a
cold valley near Cynthiana or Blue Lick Springs, KY.
Sunday into Tue...
This front will slow and stall over ATL-BHM-LIT and serve as a focus
for more convective development late Sunday and into Monday. I
delayed the pops on Sunday into two, 6 hour groups with low pops
Sunday morning and increasing as day progresses along. Kept the
precip west of I 65 Sunday morning and south of the BG parkway.
Frontal boundary is stalled out in the TN Valley causing more storms
into Tue.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Tue May 10 2016
Well...storms this morning at BWG and SDF and close to LEX then a
break, then new storms developing this afternoon and evening.
Low level jet fueling storms across Wrn KY and activity has been
increasing with 50 kt wind at 3k helping fuel this activity. This
activity began in Oklahoma and has been moving east all night long.
The HRR takes this activity through SDF and BWG and tries to split
the line into 2 pieces, splitting somewhere near LEX, but will keep
mvfr storms in the TAF by mid morning.
SSW winds will pick up to around 12 kt with plenty of gusts near 20.
Expect ceilings to lift later in the afternoon, with the afternoon
and evening heavily relying on destabilization. NAM and high
resolution models have been developing storms with instability
increasing with some breaks in the clouds. The HRR takes the current
storms in the Ozarks near Rolla, MO and tries to push them across
Srn IN and develop this into more robust storms this afternoon.
The main threat with storms will be with strong downbursts and
lightning strikes after 18z. Soundings support damaging winds with
DCAPE ramping up and steepening llvl and mid level lapse rates.
With so many storms in the TAF period lots of turbulence around all
sites during this TAF cycle and quite honestly for the next 48=72
hours with a very unsettled pattern in SW flow aloft.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........EER
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......JDG
Aviation.......JDG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
727 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 718 AM CDT Tue May 10 2016
For aviation section only.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 412 am CDT Tue May 10 2016
Quite convoluted series of MCS (Mesoscale Convective Systems)
moving through the WFO PAH forecast area during the next 72 hours.
Although a decent low level jet exists across the eastern Purchase
area of West Kentucky at this time, the boundary layer has been
stabilized from previous convection, disconnecting any downward
flux of strong winds, but support effective rainfall rates with
the elevated convection. At this time, will hold off any
consideration of a flash flood watch, but it may need to be
considered for parts of Southeast Missouri...extreme Southern
Illinois and the northern Pennyrile later today, should the next
MCS travel eastward slower than expected.
The MCS evolving over Southwest Missouri is forecast by the NAM-
WRF ARW, as well as the GFS and ECMWF guidance to grow-up scale
and move eastward later toward sunrise, filling the extreme
western areas of Southeast Missouri and extending east into
Southern Illinois between 7 am and 1 pm today. The HRRR model
families are seeming to initialize this system too far north,
keying in on the forcing and warm air advection over eastern
Illinois, south through the Kentucky Pennyrile. It appears that
another warm frontal zone is trying to set up behind the
convective activity currently sprawled the WFO PAH forecast area.
This gives a little more confidence and credence to renewed
convection this morning over Southeast Missouri. This also may
delay and renewed severe potential until this afternoon over parts
of Southwest Indiana, the northern Pennyrile, and extreme
Southeast Illinois, and the adjacent counties of the Purchase Area
of West Kentucky. By later tonight, the more persistent convection
should remain in the eastern Pennyrile and Southwest Indiana
counties.
It looks like severe potential will diminish on Wednesday and the
next shortwave of energy move from Upper Midwest into the Central
Plains and approaches ridging aloft. This will also reduce the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the day. The ridging
aloft will be dampened Late Wednesday night as an approaching cold
front and renewed warm front generation place the WFO PAH forecast
area in a very unstable warm sector. It is likely that this will
afford increased severe potential for the day 2 severe outlook
area. Thursday afternoon will likely see another round of severe
storms as the cold front finally, but slowly works through the
area with channel vorticity along and ahead of the main trough
axis. This axis should sweep through the area Thursday night
drying out the WFO PAH forecast area for the beginning of the
extended forecast period.
With the clouds, rain, and nearby mesoscale and convective
boundaries, went with a cooler and smaller diurnal range of
temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 412 am CDT Tue May 10 2016
The period will begin drier and cooler as a bubble high pressure
system moves southeast across the area on Friday. However,
another cold front will sweep quickly across the region Friday
night. This front is expected to be weakening as it approaches,
and right now the main chcs for precip will be north of the Ohio
River. Not expecting any big impacts with this front though.
High pressure will then settle back in for the first part of the
weekend . Despite a return to sunshine Saturday, most locations will
should stay in the mid and upper 60s most of the afternoon. For the
latter half of the weekend, a warm frontal zone is progged to set up
south of the PAH forecast area, between high surface pressure to the
north and low surface pressure developing in the southern Plains.
Though the smaller details of the deterministic models are more
murky at this time frame, it appears that shower and tstm chances
will be ramping up once again, esp as we head into the Sunday
night/Monday time frame. Will leave thunder mention out until the
warm front gets closer to the region on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
With the passage of a couple of upper level disturbances, MVFR to
VFR cigs/vsbys and VCSH/VCTS through 13-19Z,then VFR for the rest
of the afternoon/early evening Southerly winds may gust up over 20
KTS today. Will need to monitor for the possibility of patchy
dense fog 05z- 12Z Wed.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...GM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
628 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT...EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN
PRECIP. THOUGH...DECIDED NOT TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE POPS AND
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. ALSO
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REFRESH HOURLY GRIDS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL KY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
CONCERNING SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...WARM AIR AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS COUPLED WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT
WILL YIELD SOME INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION. SHEAR IS MUCH MORE
IMPRESSIVE WITH ROUGHLY 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
THIS HAD PROMPTED SPC TO PUT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
A SLIGHT RISK. GIVEN THAT BOTH THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAX OUT
OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z...MIGHT LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
OF THE STORMS AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY EAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA
GIVEN LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN
BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS LOWER BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING TEMPORARY TAKES
HOLD. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE IN TOWARDS
DAWN...HELPING TO RE-CHARGE A WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN TAKE AIM AT EASTERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY PRECIPITATION AREA-
WIDE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
DEPENDING ON THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE A BRIEF DRY SPELL ENSUES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
DEEPER TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPIRALING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
EVENTUALLY SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS DIFFERING IN THE POSITION AND SMALLER SCALE FORCING
DETAILS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN SHOWERS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...COMPLETE WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SITE THAT EXPERIENCES A THUNDERSTORM MAY SEE
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCES OF THIS REMAIN TOO LOW TO
WARRANT MENTION IN ANY TAF. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR
LESS...EXCEPT FOR UNDERNEATH ANY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WHERE
GUSTS MAY BE NOTABLY GREATER.
&&
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JVM/GUSEMAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
412 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 412 am CDT Tue May 10 2016
Quite convoluted series of MCS (Mesoscale Convective Systems)
moving through the WFO PAH forecast area during the next 72 hours.
Although a decent low level jet exists across the eastern Purchase
area of West Kentucky at this time, the boundary layer has been
stabilized from previous convection, disconnecting any downward
flux of strong winds, but support effective rainfall rates with
the elevated convection. At this time, will hold off any
consideration of a flash flood watch, but it may need to be
considered for parts of Southeast Missouri...extreme Southern
Illinois and the northern Pennyrile later today, should the next
MCS travel eastward slower than expected.
The MCS evolving over Southwest Missouri is forecast by the NAM-
WRF ARW, as well as the GFS and ECMWF guidance to grow-up scale
and move eastward later toward sunrise, filling the extreme
western areas of Southeast Missouri and extending east into
Southern Illinois between 7 am and 1 pm today. The HRRR model
families are seeming to initialize this system too far north,
keying in on the forcing and warm air advection over eastern
Illinois, south through the Kentucky Pennyrile. It appears that
another warm frontal zone is trying to set up behind the
convective activity currently sprawled the WFO PAH forecast area.
This gives a little more confidence and credence to renewed
convection this morning over Southeast Missouri. This also may
delay and renewed severe potential until this afternoon over parts
of Southwest Indiana, the northern Pennyrile, and extreme
Southeast Illinois, and the adjacent counties of the Purchase Area
of West Kentucky. By later tonight, the more persistent convection
should remain in the eastern Pennyrile and Southwest Indiana
counties.
It looks like severe potential will diminish on Wednesday and the
next shortwave of energy move from Upper Midwest into the Central
Plains and approaches ridging aloft. This will also reduce the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the day. The ridging
aloft will be dampened Late Wednesday night as an approaching cold
front and renewed warm front generation place the WFO PAH forecast
area in a very unstable warm sector. It is likely that this will
afford increased severe potential for the day 2 severe outlook
area. Thursday afternoon will likely see another round of severe
storms as the cold front finally, but slowly works through the
area with channel vorticity along and ahead of the main trough
axis. This axis should sweep through the area Thursday night
drying out the WFO PAH forecast area for the beginning of the
extended forecast period.
With the clouds, rain, and nearby mesoscale and convective
boundaries, went with a cooler and smaller diurnal range of
temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 412 am CDT Tue May 10 2016
The period will begin drier and cooler as a bubble high pressure
system moves southeast across the area on Friday. However,
another cold front will sweep quickly across the region Friday
night. This front is expected to be weakening as it approaches,
and right now the main chcs for precip will be north of the Ohio
River. Not expecting any big impacts with this front though.
High pressure will then settle back in for the first part of the
weekend . Despite a return to sunshine Saturday, most locations will
should stay in the mid and upper 60s most of the afternoon. For the
latter half of the weekend, a warm frontal zone is progged to set up
south of the PAH forecast area, between high surface pressure to the
north and low surface pressure developing in the southern Plains.
Though the smaller details of the deterministic models are more
murky at this time frame, it appears that shower and tstm chances
will be ramping up once again, esp as we head into the Sunday
night/Monday time frame. Will leave thunder mention out until the
warm front gets closer to the region on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
With the passage of a couple of upper level disturbances, MVFR
cigs/vsbys with VCTS/TSRA early, VFR cigs/vsbys and VCSH/VCTS
through the middle of the period, then VFR for the last 4-6 hours.
Winds generally out of the south to south southwest at 10-15 knots
with gusts up to 20 knots.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
436 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
12Z RAOBS AND LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A BLOCKY UPR
AIR PATTERN OVER NAMERICA. A BLDG UPR RDG EXTENDS FM NW ONTARIO INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS AND IS SITUATED BTWN A CLOSED LO OVER THE CNDN
MARITIMES AND ANOTHER CLOSED LO OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. ANOTHER SHRTWV
IS SLIDING ENE THRU THE MID/UPR MS RIVER VALLEY BUT IS WEAKENING
WITH TIME AS IT LIFTS INTO THE EXPANDING UPR RDG. BUT THERE IS A
GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER RELATED TO A VERY
MOIST 12Z GRB SDNG /PWAT 1.12 INCH/. BUT VERY DRY AIR NOTED JUST TO
THE NE ON THE 12Z APX RAOB /PWAT 0.16 INCH/ IS PROVIDING A SHARP NRN
EDGE TO THE CLD COVER AND THE PCPN EXPANSION. UNDER SHARP PRES
GRADIENT BTWN SFC HUDSON BAY HI PRES AND WEAKENING SFC LO PRES TROF
APRCHG FM THE SW...GUSTY SE WINDS HAVE REACHED 30 MPH AT SOME
PLACES...ACCENTUATING FIRE WX DANGER AS SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL
INTO THE 60S AND RH HAS DROPPED AOB 20 PCT AWAY FM THE CLOUDY AREAS
WITH DAYTIME MIXING.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT INTO WED FOCUS ON CLD TRENDS/POPS AND TEMPS.
FORTUNATELY...WED WL FEATURE MOISTER LLVL AIR/WEAKER WINDS...SO FIRE
WX CONCERNS WL BE REDUCED.
TNGT...APRCHG SHRTWV TO THE SW IS FCST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...ALONG
WITH ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR FORCING. DEEPER RH IS FCST TO INCRS SLOWLY
OVER MAINLY THE SW PORTION OF UPR MI. BUT WITH MINIMAL DEEP LYR
FORCING AND LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR...EXPECT NO MORE THAN SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS IN SOME PLACES NEAR THE WI BORDER/WRN LK SUP. THE
NE PORTION OF UPR MI WL BE CLOSER TO THE HUDSON BAY HI PRES/SLOWLY
RETREATING DRY AIRMASS AND REMAIN MOCLR. MIN TEMPS WL BE LOWEST IN
THIS AREA...FALLING INTO THE 30S EVEN THOUGH A STEADY ESE WIND WL
PERSIST UNDER THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE HUDSON BAY HI AND LOWER MSLP
TO THE SW.
WED...ALTHOUGH THE SHRTWV TO THE SW WL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT...
DEEPER MSTR IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD ALL OF UPR MI AS THE
LO TO MID LVL FLOW SLOWLY VEERS TOWARD THE S. SOME OF THE MODELS
GENERATE SOME LIGHT PCPN OVER MAINLY THE W AND CENTRAL WHERE SFC
DEWPTS WL BE RISING. BUT WITH LIMITED LARGER SCALE FORCING...OPTED
TO MAINTAIN PREVIOUS DRY FCST. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE A BIT LOWER ON
WED WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLD COVER. THE LLVL DRY AIR WL BE MOST
RESILIENT OVER THE E...WHERE THE MIN RH WL AT LEAST APRCH 30 PCT IN
THE AFTN. SINCE WINDS WL BE LIGHTER AND GUST NO MORE THAN 15 TO 20
MPH...WL ISSUE NO NEW FIRE WX STATEMENTS ATTM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH PERIODS OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
CWA WILL BREAK DOWN WHILE SHIFTING EAST AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS. VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL DURING THE EVENING...BUT RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS
WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THIS PRECIP AT GROUND LEVEL. A
POCKET OF HIGHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE MID-MS VALLEY ON WED WILL SPREAD NNE DURING THE NIGHT. AS IS
GENERALLY THE CASE WITH REMNANT CONVECTIVE PRECIP...GUIDANCE IS
STRUGGLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. SHOWERS THEN DIMINISH FROM
THE SW AS DRIER AIR WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT...USHERING
IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE WEST WIND UPSLOPE
AREAS. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL ON FRI...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE. WESTERLY WINDS ALSO LOOK TO BECOME
QUITE GUSTY DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 30MPH ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE WEST HALF...AS THE SFC LOW SLOWS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DRIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SEND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
REGION...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DECENT CLOUD COVER TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK INVERSION COMBINED WITH H8
TEMPS APPROACHING -10C WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS QUITE LOW...WITH
WIDESPREAD 40S EXPECTED...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 30S EAST HALF ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR. WET BULBS ZERO LEVELS SUPPORT MOSTLY MOSTLY SNOW
OUTSIDE OF THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DIRUNAL HEATING ASSISTANCE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGHING AND LOW-LEVEL
COLD CORE WILL SHIFT EAST. HOWEVER...A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES ON
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
ALTHOUGH HIER MID LVL MSTR WL GRADUALLY INVADE UPR MI THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD...THE LLVLS WL REMAIN DRY...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL 3 TAF SITES THRU 11/18Z EVEN IF SOME SPRINKLES IMPACT IWD. GUSTY
WINDS AT ALL THE SITES THIS AFTN WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
EXPECT E TO NE WINDS UP TO 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN LAKE WHERE TERRAIN
INFLUENCES FUNNEL AND ACCENTUATE THIS FLOW...THRU WED BETWEEN SLOWLY
DEPARTING HI PRES IN QUEBEC AND LO PRES APPROACHING FROM THE SW. AS
THIS LO LIFTS INTO ONTARIO ON THU...EXPECT A WSHFT TO THE W AND
THEN THE NW WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT. AS A RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND...THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ001>015-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
359 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
12Z RAOBS AND LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A BLOCKY UPR
AIR PATTERN OVER NAMERICA. A BLDG UPR RDG EXTENDS FM NW ONTARIO INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS AND IS SITUATED BTWN A CLOSED LO OVER THE CNDN
MARITIMES AND ANOTHER CLOSED LO OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. ANOTHER SHRTWV
IS SLIDING ENE THRU THE MID/UPR MS RIVER VALLEY BUT IS WEAKENING
WITH TIME AS IT LIFTS INTO THE EXPANDING UPR RDG. BUT THERE IS A
GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER RELATED TO A VERY
MOIST 12Z GRB SDNG /PWAT 1.12 INCH/. BUT VERY DRY AIR NOTED JUST TO
THE NE ON THE 12Z APX RAOB /PWAT 0.16 INCH/ IS PROVIDING A SHARP NRN
EDGE TO THE CLD COVER AND THE PCPN EXPANSION. UNDER SHARP PRES
GRADIENT BTWN SFC HUDSON BAY HI PRES AND WEAKENING SFC LO PRES TROF
APRCHG FM THE SW...GUSTY SE WINDS HAVE REACHED 30 MPH AT SOME
PLACES...ACCENTUATING FIRE WX DANGER AS SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL
INTO THE 60S AND RH HAS DROPPED AOB 20 PCT AWAY FM THE CLOUDY AREAS
WITH DAYTIME MIXING.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT INTO WED FOCUS ON CLD TRENDS/POPS AND TEMPS.
FORTUNATELY...WED WL FEATURE MOISTER LLVL AIR/WEAKER WINDS...SO FIRE
WX CONCERNS WL BE REDUCED.
TNGT...APRCHG SHRTWV TO THE SW IS FCST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...ALONG
WITH ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR FORCING. DEEPER RH IS FCST TO INCRS SLOWLY
OVER MAINLY THE SW PORTION OF UPR MI. BUT WITH MINIMAL DEEP LYR
FORCING AND LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR...EXPECT NO MORE THAN SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS IN SOME PLACES NEAR THE WI BORDER/WRN LK SUP. THE
NE PORTION OF UPR MI WL BE CLOSER TO THE HUDSON BAY HI PRES/SLOWLY
RETREATING DRY AIRMASS AND REMAIN MOCLR. MIN TEMPS WL BE LOWEST IN
THIS AREA...FALLING INTO THE 30S EVEN THOUGH A STEADY ESE WIND WL
PERSIST UNDER THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE HUDSON BAY HI AND LOWER MSLP
TO THE SW.
WED...ALTHOUGH THE SHRTWV TO THE SW WL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT...
DEEPER MSTR IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD ALL OF UPR MI AS THE
LO TO MID LVL FLOW SLOWLY VEERS TOWARD THE S. SOME OF THE MODELS
GENERATE SOME LIGHT PCPN OVER MAINLY THE W AND CENTRAL WHERE SFC
DEWPTS WL BE RISING. BUT WITH LIMITED LARGER SCALE FORCING...OPTED
TO MAINTAIN PREVIOUS DRY FCST. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE A BIT LOWER ON
WED WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLD COVER. THE LLVL DRY AIR WL BE MOST
RESILIENT OVER THE E...WHERE THE MIN RH WL AT LEAST APRCH 30 PCT IN
THE AFTN. SINCE WINDS WL BE LIGHTER AND GUST NO MORE THAN 15 TO 20
MPH...WL ISSUE NO NEW FIRE WX STATEMENTS ATTM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
RIDGE ALOFT GIVES WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND INCREASED TROUGHING THU
INTO FRI. TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING THE DRY WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK SLIDES OVER
QUEBEC ON WED WITH RIDGE STILL LINGERING BACK OVER UPR MICHIGAN. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER DAKOTAS SLOWLY MOVES TO NORTHERN MN BY WED
EVENING. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER ON WED. NOT MUCH RAIN AS LOW-LEVELS STAY DRY WITH SFC
RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE AREA. COULD BE SPRINKLES OUT OF MID CLOUD
DECK. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...EXPECT RH VALUES
MUCH HIGHER THAN EARLY THIS WEEK. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE
OVER FAR EAST CWA WHERE SKIES MAY STAY MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY CLOSER
TO SFC RIDGE. WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 15 MPH SO FIRE WX
ISSUES SHOULD NOT BE AS ELEVATED AS THEY ARE TODAY.
WED NIGHT INTO THU WE WILL SEE IF WE CAN GET SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UNFORTUNATELY...NOT SOLD ON THIS IDEA YET.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIABILITY. OVERALL IDEA REMAINS IN PLACE.
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH HITS WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT AND DEFLECTS ACROSS
MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN BASE OF
TROUGH ALONG WITH SFC LOW LIFTS TOWARD UPR MICHIGAN LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU MORNING. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REVOLVE AROUND EASTERN EXTENT
OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN AND HOW MUCH ADDITONAL RAIN
WILL OCCUR FARTHER EAST ON NOSE OF H25 JET STREAK AND H85 THETA-E
ADVECTION. LIKELY POPS REMAIN ON TRACK...ITS THE AMOUNTS THAT ARE
MORE IN QUESTION. LEARY THAT THERE IS STILL MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOWN
BOTH AT THE SFC OR ELEVATED. THINK THIS MAY ACT TO KEEP MAJORITY OF
THETA-E ADVECTION PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEN...IF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH ENDS UP MAINLY WEST OF CWA AS
ECMWF SHOWS...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD BE DOWN TO CONVERGENCE ALONG
SFC-H85 FRONT AND MODEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. LACK OF FORCING AWAY FM
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN SUGGESTS QPF
OVER CNTRL AND EAST MAY END UP BLO 0.25 INCH MANY SPOTS. WESTERN CWA
MAY SEE TOWARD 0.50 INCH.
AFTER THE RAIN ON THU MINIMAL FORCING AROUND FOR PRECIP THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF STRONGER UPPER TROUGHING. NEXT SHORTWAVE
COMING IN DURING THE AFTN ON FRI MAY ALLOW FOR SHRA COVERAGE TO RAMP
UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE FRI AFTN INTO FRI
EVENING BRINGS STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. H85
TEMPS DROP TO -8C TO -10C BY 12Z ON SAT. NW WINDS AND LK SUPERIOR
WATER TEMPS +3 TO +5C WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES/LIFT ARE OCCURRING AS
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. MEAN TROUGH PERSISTS THROUGH REST OF THE
WEEKEND. STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH TROUGH IS SHOWING UP
AND WOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW OR JUST SNOW SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING AS H85 TEMPS REMAIN LOWER THAN -5C AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES ARE BLO 1300DAM. ECMWF MOST BULLISH WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS...WOULD RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
SAT NIGHT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST AND CENTRAL CWA. EVEN WITHOUT
ANY SNOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS CHILLY WITH WELL BLO NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SAT ALONG WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS
MODERATE TO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ON SUN AND BACK INTO THE 50S ON
MON AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS START
TO RISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
ALTHOUGH HIER MID LVL MSTR WL GRADUALLY INVADE UPR MI THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD...THE LLVLS WL REMAIN DRY...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL 3 TAF SITES THRU 11/18Z EVEN IF SOME SPRINKLES IMPACT IWD. GUSTY
WINDS AT ALL THE SITES THIS AFTN WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
EXPECT E TO NE WINDS UP TO 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN LAKE WHERE TERRAIN
INFLUENCES FUNNEL AND ACCENTUATE THIS FLOW...THRU WED BETWEEN SLOWLY
DEPARTING HI PRES IN QUEBEC AND LO PRES APPROACHING FROM THE SW. AS
THIS LO LIFTS INTO ONTARIO ON THU...EXPECT A WSHFT TO THE W AND
THEN THE NW WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT. AS A RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND...THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ001>015-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
139 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICAED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NW
ONTARIO THROUGH MICHIGAN BETWEEN A A TROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAIN INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA. AT THE
SFC...ESE GRADIENT FLOW OVER UPPER MI WAS INCREASING BETWEEN A RIDGE
FROM NE QUEBEC AND JAMES BAY AND LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS. IR LOOP
SHOWED BANDS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI WHILE THICKER CLOUDS
WITH PCPN WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH FROM SE MN INTO SRN WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS CENTER ON FIRE WEATHER RISKS TODAY.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BLOCKING RIDGE THROUGH THE REGION
AND VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL SLOW THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF
PCPN FROM ERN MN THROUGH SRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INTO NRN MO AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING
TOWARD NRN IL. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY AFFECT THE FAR SOUTH
NEAR MNM THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 5C TO 7C RANGE...EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND
MIXING THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND WITH LOWER READINGS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES DOWNWIND FROM
THE SE FLOW. THE MIXING SHOULD ALSO DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER
20S RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES FROM 20 TO 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
FCST 925 MB WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WILL ALSO SUPPORT GUSTS AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 25 MPH. ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE
THICKNESS OF THE HIGH CLOUDS AND THE IMPACT ON TEMPS/MIXING...FIRE
WEATHER PARAMETERS WERE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CRITICAL VALUES OVER INLAND
LOCATIONS TO UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BAND OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST...THE FORCING WEAKENS ENOUGH AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE
RIDGE SE THAT LITTLE IF ANY PCPN WILL MOVE INTO UPPER MI. ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
RIDGE ALOFT GIVES WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND INCREASED TROUGHING THU
INTO FRI. TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING THE DRY WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK SLIDES OVER
QUEBEC ON WED WITH RIDGE STILL LINGERING BACK OVER UPR MICHIGAN. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER DAKOTAS SLOWLY MOVES TO NORTHERN MN BY WED
EVENING. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER ON WED. NOT MUCH RAIN AS LOW-LEVELS STAY DRY WITH SFC
RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE AREA. COULD BE SPRINKLES OUT OF MID CLOUD
DECK. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...EXPECT RH VALUES
MUCH HIGHER THAN EARLY THIS WEEK. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE
OVER FAR EAST CWA WHERE SKIES MAY STAY MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY CLOSER
TO SFC RIDGE. WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 15 MPH SO FIRE WX
ISSUES SHOULD NOT BE AS ELEVATED AS THEY ARE TODAY.
WED NIGHT INTO THU WE WILL SEE IF WE CAN GET SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UNFORTUNATELY...NOT SOLD ON THIS IDEA YET.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIABILITY. OVERALL IDEA REMAINS IN PLACE.
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH HITS WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT AND DEFLECTS ACROSS
MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN BASE OF
TROUGH ALONG WITH SFC LOW LIFTS TOWARD UPR MICHIGAN LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU MORNING. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REVOLVE AROUND EASTERN EXTENT
OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN AND HOW MUCH ADDITONAL RAIN
WILL OCCUR FARTHER EAST ON NOSE OF H25 JET STREAK AND H85 THETA-E
ADVECTION. LIKELY POPS REMAIN ON TRACK...ITS THE AMOUNTS THAT ARE
MORE IN QUESTION. LEARY THAT THERE IS STILL MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOWN
BOTH AT THE SFC OR ELEVATED. THINK THIS MAY ACT TO KEEP MAJORITY OF
THETA-E ADVECTION PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEN...IF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH ENDS UP MAINLY WEST OF CWA AS
ECMWF SHOWS...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD BE DOWN TO CONVERGENCE ALONG
SFC-H85 FRONT AND MODEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. LACK OF FORCING AWAY FM
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN SUGGESTS QPF
OVER CNTRL AND EAST MAY END UP BLO 0.25 INCH MANY SPOTS. WESTERN CWA
MAY SEE TOWARD 0.50 INCH.
AFTER THE RAIN ON THU MINIMAL FORCING AROUND FOR PRECIP THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF STRONGER UPPER TROUGHING. NEXT SHORTWAVE
COMING IN DURING THE AFTN ON FRI MAY ALLOW FOR SHRA COVERAGE TO RAMP
UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE FRI AFTN INTO FRI
EVENING BRINGS STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. H85
TEMPS DROP TO -8C TO -10C BY 12Z ON SAT. NW WINDS AND LK SUPERIOR
WATER TEMPS +3 TO +5C WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES/LIFT ARE OCCURRING AS
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. MEAN TROUGH PERSISTS THROUGH REST OF THE
WEEKEND. STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH TROUGH IS SHOWING UP
AND WOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW OR JUST SNOW SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING AS H85 TEMPS REMAIN LOWER THAN -5C AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES ARE BLO 1300DAM. ECMWF MOST BULLISH WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS...WOULD RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
SAT NIGHT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST AND CENTRAL CWA. EVEN WITHOUT
ANY SNOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS CHILLY WITH WELL BLO NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SAT ALONG WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS
MODERATE TO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ON SUN AND BACK INTO THE 50S ON
MON AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS START
TO RISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
ALTHOUGH HIER MID LVL MSTR WL GRADUALLY INVADE UPR MI THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD...THE LLVLS WL REMAIN DRY...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL 3 TAF SITES THRU 11/18Z EVEN IF SOME SPRINKLES IMPACT IWD. GUSTY
WINDS AT ALL THE SITES THIS AFTN WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAINLY
OVER THE WESTERN LAKE TODAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL
THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER
TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO
LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW
AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ON ITS
SOUTHERN FLANK. A WEAKENING GRADIENT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW NW WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ001>015-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
736 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICAED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NW
ONTARIO THROUGH MICHIGAN BETWEEN A A TROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAIN INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA. AT THE
SFC...ESE GRADIENT FLOW OVER UPPER MI WAS INCREASING BETWEEN A RIDGE
FROM NE QUEBEC AND JAMES BAY AND LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS. IR LOOP
SHOWED BANDS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI WHILE THICKER CLOUDS
WITH PCPN WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH FROM SE MN INTO SRN WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS CENTER ON FIRE WEATHER RISKS TODAY.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BLOCKING RIDGE THROUGH THE REGION
AND VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL SLOW THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF
PCPN FROM ERN MN THROUGH SRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INTO NRN MO AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING
TOWARD NRN IL. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY AFFECT THE FAR SOUTH
NEAR MNM THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 5C TO 7C RANGE...EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND
MIXING THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND WITH LOWER READINGS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES DOWNWIND FROM
THE SE FLOW. THE MIXING SHOULD ALSO DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER
20S RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES FROM 20 TO 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
FCST 925 MB WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WILL ALSO SUPPORT GUSTS AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 25 MPH. ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE
THICKNESS OF THE HIGH CLOUDS AND THE IMPACT ON TEMPS/MIXING...FIRE
WEATHER PARAMETERS WERE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CRITICAL VALUES OVER INLAND
LOCATIONS TO UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BAND OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST...THE FORCING WEAKENS ENOUGH AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE
RIDGE SE THAT LITTLE IF ANY PCPN WILL MOVE INTO UPPER MI. ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
RIDGE ALOFT GIVES WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND INCREASED TROUGHING THU
INTO FRI. TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING THE DRY WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK SLIDES OVER
QUEBEC ON WED WITH RIDGE STILL LINGERING BACK OVER UPR MICHIGAN. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER DAKOTAS SLOWLY MOVES TO NORTHERN MN BY WED
EVENING. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER ON WED. NOT MUCH RAIN AS LOW-LEVELS STAY DRY WITH SFC
RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE AREA. COULD BE SPRINKLES OUT OF MID CLOUD
DECK. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...EXPECT RH VALUES
MUCH HIGHER THAN EARLY THIS WEEK. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE
OVER FAR EAST CWA WHERE SKIES MAY STAY MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY CLOSER
TO SFC RIDGE. WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 15 MPH SO FIRE WX
ISSUES SHOULD NOT BE AS ELEVATED AS THEY ARE TODAY.
WED NIGHT INTO THU WE WILL SEE IF WE CAN GET SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UNFORTUNATELY...NOT SOLD ON THIS IDEA YET.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIABILITY. OVERALL IDEA REMAINS IN PLACE.
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH HITS WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT AND DEFLECTS ACROSS
MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN BASE OF
TROUGH ALONG WITH SFC LOW LIFTS TOWARD UPR MICHIGAN LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU MORNING. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REVOLVE AROUND EASTERN EXTENT
OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN AND HOW MUCH ADDITONAL RAIN
WILL OCCUR FARTHER EAST ON NOSE OF H25 JET STREAK AND H85 THETA-E
ADVECTION. LIKELY POPS REMAIN ON TRACK...ITS THE AMOUNTS THAT ARE
MORE IN QUESTION. LEARY THAT THERE IS STILL MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOWN
BOTH AT THE SFC OR ELEVATED. THINK THIS MAY ACT TO KEEP MAJORITY OF
THETA-E ADVECTION PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEN...IF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH ENDS UP MAINLY WEST OF CWA AS
ECMWF SHOWS...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD BE DOWN TO CONVERGENCE ALONG
SFC-H85 FRONT AND MODEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. LACK OF FORCING AWAY FM
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN SUGGESTS QPF
OVER CNTRL AND EAST MAY END UP BLO 0.25 INCH MANY SPOTS. WESTERN CWA
MAY SEE TOWARD 0.50 INCH.
AFTER THE RAIN ON THU MINIMAL FORCING AROUND FOR PRECIP THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF STRONGER UPPER TROUGHING. NEXT SHORTWAVE
COMING IN DURING THE AFTN ON FRI MAY ALLOW FOR SHRA COVERAGE TO RAMP
UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE FRI AFTN INTO FRI
EVENING BRINGS STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. H85
TEMPS DROP TO -8C TO -10C BY 12Z ON SAT. NW WINDS AND LK SUPERIOR
WATER TEMPS +3 TO +5C WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES/LIFT ARE OCCURRING AS
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. MEAN TROUGH PERSISTS THROUGH REST OF THE
WEEKEND. STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH TROUGH IS SHOWING UP
AND WOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW OR JUST SNOW SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING AS H85 TEMPS REMAIN LOWER THAN -5C AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES ARE BLO 1300DAM. ECMWF MOST BULLISH WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS...WOULD RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
SAT NIGHT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST AND CENTRAL CWA. EVEN WITHOUT
ANY SNOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS CHILLY WITH WELL BLO NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SAT ALONG WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS
MODERATE TO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ON SUN AND BACK INTO THE 50S ON
MON AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS START
TO RISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
ALTHOUGH HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTH
INTO UPPER MI...LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. MARGINAL LLWS
EARLY TODAY WILL DISSIPTE BY MID MORNING AS DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS
BUT WILL BRING GUSTY SFC WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAINLY
OVER THE WESTERN LAKE TODAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL
THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER
TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO
LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW
AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ON ITS
SOUTHERN FLANK. A WEAKENING GRADIENT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW NW WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001>015-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
525 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICAED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NW
ONTARIO THROUGH MICHIGAN BETWEEN A A TROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAIN INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA. AT THE
SFC...ESE GRADIENT FLOW OVER UPPER MI WAS INCREASING BETWEEN A RIDGE
FROM NE QUEBEC AND JAMES BAY AND LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS. IR LOOP
SHOWED BANDS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI WHILE THICKER CLOUDS
WITH PCPN WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH FROM SE MN INTO SRN WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS CENTER ON FIRE WEATHER RISKS TODAY.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BLOCKING RIDGE THROUGH THE REGION
AND VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL SLOW THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF
PCPN FROM ERN MN THROUGH SRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INTO NRN MO AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING
TOWARD NRN IL. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY AFFECT THE FAR SOUTH
NEAR MNM THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 5C TO 7C RANGE...EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND
MIXING THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND WITH LOWER READINGS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES DOWNWIND FROM
THE SE FLOW. THE MIXING SHOULD ALSO DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER
20S RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES FROM 20 TO 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
FCST 925 MB WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WILL ALSO SUPPORT GUSTS AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 25 MPH. ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE
THICKNESS OF THE HIGH CLOUDS AND THE IMPACT ON TEMPS/MIXING...FIRE
WEATHER PARAMETERS WERE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CRITICAL VALUES OVER INLAND
LOCATIONS TO UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BAND OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST...THE FORCING WEAKENS ENOUGH AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE
RIDGE SE THAT LITTLE IF ANY PCPN WILL MOVE INTO UPPER MI. ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
RIDGE ALOFT GIVES WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND INCREASED TROUGHING THU
INTO FRI. TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING THE DRY WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK SLIDES OVER
QUEBEC ON WED WITH RIDGE STILL LINGERING BACK OVER UPR MICHIGAN. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER DAKOTAS SLOWLY MOVES TO NORTHERN MN BY WED
EVENING. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER ON WED. NOT MUCH RAIN AS LOW-LEVELS STAY DRY WITH SFC
RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE AREA. COULD BE SPRINKLES OUT OF MID CLOUD
DECK. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...EXPECT RH VALUES
MUCH HIGHER THAN EARLY THIS WEEK. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE
OVER FAR EAST CWA WHERE SKIES MAY STAY MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY CLOSER
TO SFC RIDGE. WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 15 MPH SO FIRE WX
ISSUES SHOULD NOT BE AS ELEVATED AS THEY ARE TODAY.
WED NIGHT INTO THU WE WILL SEE IF WE CAN GET SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UNFORTUNATELY...NOT SOLD ON THIS IDEA YET.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIABILITY. OVERALL IDEA REMAINS IN PLACE.
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH HITS WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT AND DEFLECTS ACROSS
MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN BASE OF
TROUGH ALONG WITH SFC LOW LIFTS TOWARD UPR MICHIGAN LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU MORNING. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REVOLVE AROUND EASTERN EXTENT
OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN AND HOW MUCH ADDITONAL RAIN
WILL OCCUR FARTHER EAST ON NOSE OF H25 JET STREAK AND H85 THETA-E
ADVECTION. LIKELY POPS REMAIN ON TRACK...ITS THE AMOUNTS THAT ARE
MORE IN QUESTION. LEARY THAT THERE IS STILL MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOWN
BOTH AT THE SFC OR ELEVATED. THINK THIS MAY ACT TO KEEP MAJORITY OF
THETA-E ADVECTION PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEN...IF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH ENDS UP MAINLY WEST OF CWA AS
ECMWF SHOWS...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD BE DOWN TO CONVERGENCE ALONG
SFC-H85 FRONT AND MODEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. LACK OF FORCING AWAY FM
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN SUGGESTS QPF
OVER CNTRL AND EAST MAY END UP BLO 0.25 INCH MANY SPOTS. WESTERN CWA
MAY SEE TOWARD 0.50 INCH.
AFTER THE RAIN ON THU MINIMAL FORCING AROUND FOR PRECIP THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF STRONGER UPPER TROUGHING. NEXT SHORTWAVE
COMING IN DURING THE AFTN ON FRI MAY ALLOW FOR SHRA COVERAGE TO RAMP
UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE FRI AFTN INTO FRI
EVENING BRINGS STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. H85
TEMPS DROP TO -8C TO -10C BY 12Z ON SAT. NW WINDS AND LK SUPERIOR
WATER TEMPS +3 TO +5C WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES/LIFT ARE OCCURRING AS
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. MEAN TROUGH PERSISTS THROUGH REST OF THE
WEEKEND. STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH TROUGH IS SHOWING UP
AND WOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW OR JUST SNOW SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING AS H85 TEMPS REMAIN LOWER THAN -5C AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES ARE BLO 1300DAM. ECMWF MOST BULLISH WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS...WOULD RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
SAT NIGHT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST AND CENTRAL CWA. EVEN WITHOUT
ANY SNOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS CHILLY WITH WELL BLO NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SAT ALONG WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS
MODERATE TO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ON SUN AND BACK INTO THE 50S ON
MON AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS START
TO RISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
ALTHOUGH HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY EDGING N INTO
UPPER MI...LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. MARGINAL LLWS IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KSAW PER LATEST KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE AND
MODEL FCSTS. DAYTIME HEATING/DEEPENING MIXING WILL THEN RESULT IN
GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAINLY
OVER THE WESTERN LAKE TODAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL
THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER
TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO
LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW
AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ON ITS
SOUTHERN FLANK. A WEAKENING GRADIENT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW NW WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SAT. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001>015-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
433 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER NAMERICA WITH UPR RDG STRETCHING FM MANITOBA INTO THE
WRN GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO OVER SE CANADA...AN UPR TROF OVER
WRN CANADA/THE PAC NW AND ANOTHER SRN BRANCH CLOSED LO LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD THRU THE PLAINS. SFC HI PRES RDG EXTENDS FM HUDSON BAY
INTO ERN UPR MI. EXCEPT FOR SOME HI CLDS MAINLY NEAR THE WI
BORDER...SKIES ARE SUNNY WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB
AND ESPECIALLY THE APX RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS ONLY 0.18 INCH.
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 60S/NEAR 70 AWAY FM THE MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LKS ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE H85
TEMPS ARE APRCHG 7C...AND MIN RH HAS FALLEN AS LO AS 20-25 PCT WITH
DIURNAL MIXING. LOOKING TO THE SW...THICKER CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
PLAINS SRN BRANCH SHRTWV ARE ADVANCING SLOWLY NEWD THRU MN/WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS MAINLY ON FIRE WX ISSUES
AND NEED FOR FIRE WX HEADLINES ON TUE.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH AXIS OF VERY DRY AIR IS FCST TO PERSIST OVER THE CWA
AND MAINTAIN MOCLR SKIES...A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO
DOMINATE AS THE SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E. THE
STEADIER ESE FLOW WL HOLD LO TEMPS HIER THAN LAST NGT. EXPECT THE
LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE FAR ERN CWA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING HI
WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WL BE A BIT WEAKER. OVERALL...RH RECOVER
SHOULD BE POOR.
TUE...SRN BRANCH SHRTWV IS FCST TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NE BUT WEAKEN
AS IT RUNS INTO A PERSISTENT UPR RDG OVER NW ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH CLD
COVER IS LIKELY TO INCRS SW-NE...PREFER THE MODELS WHICH KEEP ANY
PCPN TO THE SW THRU 00Z WED GIVEN FCST PERSISTENCE OF LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY RETREATING SFC HI PRES/VERY DRY 12Z APX RAOB
THAT WL BE SOURCE AIRMASS. WITH SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BTWN FALLING
MSLP TO THE SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APRCHG ALBEIT WEAKENING SRN
BRANCH DISTURANCE AND THE HI TO THE ENE...H925 ESE WINDS ARE FCST TO
REACH 20-25 KTS...SUPPORTING SFC WINDS GUSTS 20-25 MPH...AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 30 MPH. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 6-8C
RANGE...MAX TEMPS WL AT LEAST APRCH 70 AWAY FM LK MODERATION. TENDED
TOWARD THE HI END OF GUIDANCE AWAY FM THE LK COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN
A DRIER SCENARIO WITH JUST MAINLY HI CLDS EXPECTED. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH THE FIRE WX CUSTOMERS AND CONSIDERING THE DRYNESS
OF SHORT TERM FUELS BEFORE GREENUP/POOR RH RECOVERY TNGT AS WELL AS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED HUDSON BAY HI WX PATTERN/TIME OF YEAR AND
DRYNESS OF SOURCE 12Z APX RAOB...OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR
15Z-24Z DESPITE CONCERNS OFFICIAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
RIDGE ALOFT GIVES WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND INCREASED TROUGHING THU
INTO FRI. TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING THE DRY WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK SLIDES OVER
QUEBEC ON WED WITH RIDGE STILL LINGERING BACK OVER UPR MICHIGAN. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER DAKOTAS SLOWLY MOVES TO NORTHERN MN BY WED
EVENING. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER ON WED. NOT MUCH RAIN AS LOW-LEVELS STAY DRY WITH SFC
RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE AREA. COULD BE SPRINKLES OUT OF MID CLOUD
DECK. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...EXPECT RH VALUES
MUCH HIGHER THAN EARLY THIS WEEK. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE
OVER FAR EAST CWA WHERE SKIES MAY STAY MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY CLOSER
TO SFC RIDGE. WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 15 MPH SO FIRE WX
ISSUES SHOULD NOT BE AS ELEVATED AS THEY ARE TODAY.
WED NIGHT INTO THU WE WILL SEE IF WE CAN GET SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UNFORTUNATELY...NOT SOLD ON THIS IDEA YET.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIABILITY. OVERALL IDEA REMAINS IN PLACE.
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH HITS WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT AND DEFLECTS ACROSS
MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN BASE OF
TROUGH ALONG WITH SFC LOW LIFTS TOWARD UPR MICHIGAN LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU MORNING. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REVOLVE AROUND EASTERN EXTENT
OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN AND HOW MUCH ADDITONAL RAIN
WILL OCCUR FARTHER EAST ON NOSE OF H25 JET STREAK AND H85 THETA-E
ADVECTION. LIKELY POPS REMAIN ON TRACK...ITS THE AMOUNTS THAT ARE
MORE IN QUESTION. LEARY THAT THERE IS STILL MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOWN
BOTH AT THE SFC OR ELEVATED. THINK THIS MAY ACT TO KEEP MAJORITY OF
THETA-E ADVECTION PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEN...IF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH ENDS UP MAINLY WEST OF CWA AS
ECMWF SHOWS...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD BE DOWN TO CONVERGENCE ALONG
SFC-H85 FRONT AND MODEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. LACK OF FORCING AWAY FM
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN SUGGESTS QPF
OVER CNTRL AND EAST MAY END UP BLO 0.25 INCH MANY SPOTS. WESTERN CWA
MAY SEE TOWARD 0.50 INCH.
AFTER THE RAIN ON THU MINIMAL FORCING AROUND FOR PRECIP THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF STRONGER UPPER TROUGHING. NEXT SHORTWAVE
COMING IN DURING THE AFTN ON FRI MAY ALLOW FOR SHRA COVERAGE TO RAMP
UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE FRI AFTN INTO FRI
EVENING BRINGS STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. H85
TEMPS DROP TO -8C TO -10C BY 12Z ON SAT. NW WINDS AND LK SUPERIOR
WATER TEMPS +3 TO +5C WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES/LIFT ARE OCCURRING AS
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. MEAN TROUGH PERSISTS THROUGH REST OF THE
WEEKEND. STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH TROUGH IS SHOWING UP
AND WOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW OR JUST SNOW SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING AS H85 TEMPS REMAIN LOWER THAN -5C AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES ARE BLO 1300DAM. ECMWF MOST BULLISH WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS...WOULD RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
SAT NIGHT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST AND CENTRAL CWA. EVEN WITHOUT
ANY SNOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS CHILLY WITH WELL BLO NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SAT ALONG WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS
MODERATE TO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ON SUN AND BACK INTO THE 50S ON
MON AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS START
TO RISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
ALTHOUGH HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY EDGING N INTO
UPPER MI...LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. MARGINAL LLWS IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KSAW PER LATEST KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE AND
MODEL FCSTS. DAYTIME HEATING/DEEPENING MIXING WILL THEN RESULT IN
GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND
TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM
THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS
TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. WEAKENING GRAD WITH
HIGH PRES RIDGEBUILDING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW NW WINDS
TO SUBSIDESOME ON SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001>015-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
135 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER NAMERICA WITH UPR RDG STRETCHING FM MANITOBA INTO THE
WRN GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO OVER SE CANADA...AN UPR TROF OVER
WRN CANADA/THE PAC NW AND ANOTHER SRN BRANCH CLOSED LO LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD THRU THE PLAINS. SFC HI PRES RDG EXTENDS FM HUDSON BAY
INTO ERN UPR MI. EXCEPT FOR SOME HI CLDS MAINLY NEAR THE WI
BORDER...SKIES ARE SUNNY WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB
AND ESPECIALLY THE APX RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS ONLY 0.18 INCH.
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 60S/NEAR 70 AWAY FM THE MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LKS ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE H85
TEMPS ARE APRCHG 7C...AND MIN RH HAS FALLEN AS LO AS 20-25 PCT WITH
DIURNAL MIXING. LOOKING TO THE SW...THICKER CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
PLAINS SRN BRANCH SHRTWV ARE ADVANCING SLOWLY NEWD THRU MN/WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS MAINLY ON FIRE WX ISSUES
AND NEED FOR FIRE WX HEADLINES ON TUE.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH AXIS OF VERY DRY AIR IS FCST TO PERSIST OVER THE CWA
AND MAINTAIN MOCLR SKIES...A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO
DOMINATE AS THE SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E. THE
STEADIER ESE FLOW WL HOLD LO TEMPS HIER THAN LAST NGT. EXPECT THE
LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE FAR ERN CWA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING HI
WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WL BE A BIT WEAKER. OVERALL...RH RECOVER
SHOULD BE POOR.
TUE...SRN BRANCH SHRTWV IS FCST TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NE BUT WEAKEN
AS IT RUNS INTO A PERSISTENT UPR RDG OVER NW ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH CLD
COVER IS LIKELY TO INCRS SW-NE...PREFER THE MODELS WHICH KEEP ANY
PCPN TO THE SW THRU 00Z WED GIVEN FCST PERSISTENCE OF LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY RETREATING SFC HI PRES/VERY DRY 12Z APX RAOB
THAT WL BE SOURCE AIRMASS. WITH SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BTWN FALLING
MSLP TO THE SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APRCHG ALBEIT WEAKENING SRN
BRANCH DISTURANCE AND THE HI TO THE ENE...H925 ESE WINDS ARE FCST TO
REACH 20-25 KTS...SUPPORTING SFC WINDS GUSTS 20-25 MPH...AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 30 MPH. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 6-8C
RANGE...MAX TEMPS WL AT LEAST APRCH 70 AWAY FM LK MODERATION. TENDED
TOWARD THE HI END OF GUIDANCE AWAY FM THE LK COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN
A DRIER SCENARIO WITH JUST MAINLY HI CLDS EXPECTED. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH THE FIRE WX CUSTOMERS AND CONSIDERING THE DRYNESS
OF SHORT TERM FUELS BEFORE GREENUP/POOR RH RECOVERY TNGT AS WELL AS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED HUDSON BAY HI WX PATTERN/TIME OF YEAR AND
DRYNESS OF SOURCE 12Z APX RAOB...OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR
15Z-24Z DESPITE CONCERNS OFFICIAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 534 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE BY MID-LATE THIS WEEK
AS A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA WITH BUILDING 5H
RIDGE HEIGHTS INTO NW CANADA/SE ALASKA INDUCING AN AMPLIFIED AND
PERSISTENT TROUGH DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NE CONUS...INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIDGING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK OVER UPPER MI BUT THEN AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A
BROAD...AMPLIFIED TROUGH TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION TEMPS WILL FALL
WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
WILL BRING NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU. AFTER THAT...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH BASE OF
THE BROAD TROUGH WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH SCT PCPN ACROSS
UPPER MI THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS
AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND.
BEGINNING TUE NIGHT AND WED...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY E-SE
FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER WRN QUEBEC SHOULD MAINTAIN MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH COULD MAYBE
BRING A FEW SPRINKLES INTO THE FAR SCNTRL CWA BUT NOTHING MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WL BE WARRANTED.
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE WRN LAKES BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES E WED NIGHT AS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL
CANADA. A SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE FM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. IT IS THAT WAVE ALONG WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SFC TO H85 CONVERGENCE
ALONG INITIAL COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT WL BRING A BROKEN BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. MODELS INCLUDING SREF
INDICATE BULK OF SFC AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING WELL SOUTH
OF CWA SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TSRA WITH THE SHRA. SINCE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE/PVA STAYS WELL TO NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
SECONDARY WAVE LIFTS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...SHOWERS
WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH FARTHER EAST AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS ACROSS
CWA. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DEPICT TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BE WELL UNDER A QUARTER INCH
FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE FAR WEST ALONG TRACK OF SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE. SO IN SHORT...NOT MUCH RELIEF IS EXPECTED FROM RECENT DRY
STRETCH.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT WILL PUSH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR FROM CENTRAL CANADA BEGINNING FRI. COLD AIR LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH MODELS INDICATING
COLDEST 8H TEMPS OF -8 TO POSSIBLY -10C OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SAT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF SCT SHOWERS TO THE CWA WHICH PERHAPS COULD BECOME
NUMEROUS AT TIMES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...AS TEMPS SHOULD GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. COLD TEMPS WILL ALSO LIKELY SUPPORT
SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND IN
EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION. MODEL RESOLUTION/TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BROAD/AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE POORLY HANDLED
LATE WEEK/WEEKEND TIME FRAME SO NO MORE THAN CHC POPS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON SUNDAY...SO IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES LATER FCSTS MAY NEED TO BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY
AT SOME POINT FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
ALTHOUGH HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY EDGING N INTO
UPPER MI...LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. MARGINAL LLWS IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KSAW PER LATEST KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE AND
MODEL FCSTS. DAYTIME HEATING/DEEPENING MIXING WILL THEN RESULT IN
GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND
TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM
THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS
TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. WEAKENING GRAD WITH
HIGH PRES RIDGEBUILDING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW NW WINDS
TO SUBSIDESOME ON SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001>015-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
403 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.DISCUSSION...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING THE
GENERAL THEME. AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WE ARE STILL WAITING TO
SEE ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA PER MORNING DISCUSSION...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HRRR GUIDANCE MAY
END UP BEING OVERDONE. AFTER ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING...EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL RAIN CHANCES
RETURN THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMAL IN THIS WARM PATTERN AND HIGHS COULD APPROACH 90 F
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN A FEW LOCATIONS. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE PREVAILING AT TAF SITES ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING AND
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION TOWARD DAY
BREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING...PERHAPS RESULTING IN ANOTHER BOUT OF MVFR
TO IFR CATEGORIES FIRST THING WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND LOW STRATUS DISSIPATES. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 3-8
KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. /19/
&&
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
HELP SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR CWA. WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
INCREASE PWATS FROM AN INCH AND A QUARTER TO OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BY THURSDAY EVENING. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
GET AN EARLY START AND SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE NOON.
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY
EVENING AND NOT PUSHING SOUTH OF OUR CWA UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS SLOWER THAN LAST NIGHT`S MODEL RUN SUGGESTED. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO OUR CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT KNOCKING
PWATS BELOW A HALF INCH BY FRIDAY EVENING. A >1020MB HIGH WILL
REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HELPS DROP ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
REMAINING WEST OF OUR CWA...LACK OF ANY RETURN FLOW WILL LIMIT DEEP
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT WILL GET BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS
STALLS THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT NORTH OF OUR CWA. EITHER WAY...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS RAIN BACK
OVER OUR CWA MONDAY FASTER THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH MODELS SUGGEST OUR
FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MONDAY
THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY NIGHT. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 67 88 66 86 / 14 4 9 23
MERIDIAN 65 88 64 85 / 16 5 4 22
VICKSBURG 67 88 66 86 / 9 5 10 25
HATTIESBURG 66 89 66 88 / 3 10 6 20
NATCHEZ 67 87 67 85 / 7 9 7 21
GREENVILLE 68 88 68 82 / 12 7 14 45
GREENWOOD 67 88 66 84 / 12 4 10 47
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
EC/22/19/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1146 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT FOR THE UPDATE TO BETTER REFLECT MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE SETTING UP OVER SE PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS WHERE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS HAVE SOME EFFECT. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY
MARGINAL FOR GETTING TSTM ACTIVITY HOWEVER AND WILL JUST INDICATE
SHOWERS. THIS IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE HRRR AND OTHER HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW STRATUS BREAKING UP
FAIRLY WELL AND EXPECT TO SEE A REVERSAL IN THE SKY COVER WITH
GREATER COVERAGE OVER SRN/ERN AREAS. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES CONTINUE AT TAF
SITES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VFR CATEGORIES ANTICIPATED AT MOST SITES BY MID-
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST SITES WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE.
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
SOME GUSTS REACHING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THESE BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3-8 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/
THE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE DELTA. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH PWATS
FALLING BELOW AN INCH...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S. A SHORT WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS IN THE WEST BY MORNING./15/
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
HELP SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR CWA. WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
INCREASE PWATS FROM AN INCH AND A QUARTER TO OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BY THURSDAY EVENING. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
GET AN EARLY START AND SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE NOON.
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY
EVENING AND NOT PUSHING SOUTH OF OUR CWA UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS SLOWER THAN LAST NIGHT`S MODEL RUN SUGGESTED. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO OUR CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT KNOCKING
PWATS BELOW A HALF INCH BY FRIDAY EVENING. A >1020MB HIGH WILL
REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HELPS DROP ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
REMAINING WEST OF OUR CWA...LACK OF ANY RETURN FLOW WILL LIMIT DEEP
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT WILL GET BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS
STALLS THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT NORTH OF OUR CWA. EITHER WAY...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS RAIN BACK
OVER OUR CWA MONDAY FASTER THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH MODELS SUGGEST OUR
FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MONDAY
THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY NIGHT. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 86 66 87 67 / 22 8 9 11
MERIDIAN 86 64 88 65 / 24 9 9 11
VICKSBURG 86 67 88 68 / 17 7 9 14
HATTIESBURG 88 66 89 66 / 10 8 8 12
NATCHEZ 86 68 87 67 / 15 6 8 13
GREENVILLE 86 67 88 68 / 13 13 11 17
GREENWOOD 86 67 87 67 / 17 13 12 13
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
231 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THU...
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE BASED ON RADAR AND WATER VAPOR OVERLAYS
AND TRENDS. BOTH PRODUCTS SHOWED A DRY SLOT MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. CENTER OF THE LOW HAS STALLED OVER THE
GARFIELD/ROSEBUD COUNTY LINE. GFS, NAM, AND RAP PRODUCTS SEEM TO
SYNCED UP VERY WELL TODAY WITH LOW AND DRY SLOT AND ARE CARRYING
IT NORTHEAST FROM HERE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
AND CONTINUING THE RAINFALL TO THE WEST OF IT FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MDOT CAMERAS ARE STILL SHOWING FREEZING LEVELS LOW ENOUGH THAT
SNOW HAS ACCUMULATED AT LUFTBUROUGH HILL AND MALTASOUTH. HOWEVER
RADAR TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES PREDICTIONS SHOULD BEGIN
TRANSITIONING ANY NEW PRECIPITATION BACK INTO RAIN SLOWLY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WHILE NO CGS HAVE BEEN EVIDENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST... MODELS
CONTINUE TO PLACE SOME CAPE ACROSS THESE AREAS OF THE CWA AND THE
DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH IS FORCING SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS OUT JUST
AHEAD OF IT SO THE POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS.
THE GLASGOW AREAS HAS BEEN THE MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL IMPACT WITH
2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN AND THIS TREND WITH AREAS WEST IN THE CWA
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH THE LOW AT ITS WEST MOST POSITIONING AND
MOVING NORTHEAST, THIS WILL FORM A NEW TROWAL EXTENDING NORTH/SOUTH
FROM PHILLIPS COUNTY THROUGH THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER. THIS WILL
FORCE A LOOKOUT FOR AREAL FLOODING TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY... AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA IT IS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE THE TROWAL OFF TO THE EAST AND WITH THE
RAINSHOWERS QUICKLY FOLLOWING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... CLEARING WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT
LEADING TO TEMPERATURE DROP OFFS NEAR FREEZING FOR AREAS THAT SEE
CLEAR SKIES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AS
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST A NEW SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH A A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GAH
.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH TUE...
AFTERNOON UPDATE...
MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TODAY ONLY TO THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND DIRECTS THE
NEXT PUSH OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE MOST ACCUMULATION FOR OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES. INCREASED POPS TO LINE UP WITH THE BEST MODEL
CONSENSUS.
THE SMALLER-SCALE DISTURBANCES RETREAT FURTHER NORTHWARD AND
MERGE WITH THE LARGER HUDSON BAY LOW WHILE A SMALL-SCALE SHORT-
WAVE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS SYSTEMS ARE SET TO IMPACT NORTHEAST MONTANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUT ITS PROGRESSION WILL
BE SLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MONTANA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST A LITTLE RAINFALL FROM THIS FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND...BUT SO
FAR IT LOOKS AS IF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO OUR
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WITH A RIDGE SET UP TO OUR WEST AND A RATHER DEEP LOW OVER
ONTARIO.
HICKFORD
&&
.AVIATION...
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM...STALLED OVER EASTERN MONTANA...WILL ALLOW
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE
RAIN. EXPECT THE RAIN TO FINALLY CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT VARYING WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS.
BMICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...GARFIELD...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PETROLEUM.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
952 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THU...
MORNING UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE FOCUSED FIRST ON RADAR
AND WATER VAPOR TRENDS. BOTH PRODUCTS SHOWED A DRY SLOT MOVING UP
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA RAPIDLY. GFS, NAM, AND RAP PRODUCTS
SEEM TO SYNCED UP VERY WELL TODAY WITH THIS SLOT AND ARE CARRYING
IT NORTH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND
CONTINUING THE RAINFALL TO THE WEST OF IT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MDOT CAMERAS ARE SHOWING THAT FREEZING LEVELS HAVE DROPPED LOW
ENOUGH THAT SNOW HAS EXPANDED BEYOND THE LITTLE ROCKIES TO
SURROUNDING AREAS OF PHILLIPS COUNTY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
GARFIELD COUNTY AS WELL. THE CONVECTIVE/RAIN LOOK OF RADAR
PRODUCTS ALSO SMOOTHS OUT INTO A STRATUS/SNOW EVENT ACROSS THESE
AREAS AS WELL AS PETROLEUM COUNTY AT THIS TIME. HAVE EXPANDED
SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS TO COINCIDE WITH CAMERA
TRENDS. WITH THIS EXPANSION OF SNOW HAVE DECIDED TO PUT A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY OUT FOR THESE 3 COUNTIES.
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST THUNDER LOOKS LIKE IT MAY HAVE A
CHANCE WITH THE LOW CAP CONVECTION IN THE CENTER OF THE LOW/DRY
SLOT BUT SHOULD BE MINIMAL IMPACT.
THE GLASGOW AREAS HAS BEEN THE MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL IMPACT WITH
2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.. WHICH WILL
FORCE A LOOKOUT FOR AREAL FLOODING. THE SURROUNDING AREAS ARE
COMMONLY SEEING TOTALS OF A HALF TO 2 INCHES ALREADY WITH MORE ON
THE WAY. GAH
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT OBSERVATIONS HAVE INCLUDED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...AND THUNDER...WHICH IS WHAT WAS
EXPECTED. THE LEWISTOWN DIVIDE DOT CAM ALSO SHOWED SNOW FALLING
LAST EVENING.
THE DAY BEGINS WITH THE NORTH DAKOTA STORM BEING ABSORBED BY THE
BIGGER STORM MOVING IN FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS HAS CREATED A LARGER
SURFACE LOW AND BROAD LIFT ZONES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE LOW
SWINGS EAST A TROWAL WILL FORM ON THE BACKSIDE AND FOCUS DIRECTLY
OVER THE CWA. BETWEEN ONE TO TWO AND HALF INCHES OF QPF WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA AS THE STORM STALLS UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEING MIXED IN FROM THE NORTH...
WILL MAINTAIN THE SNOW MENTION FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS THE
LITTLE ROCKIES WHERE IT COULD BEGIN TO SEE A HEAVY WET SNOW
FORMING ABOUT 3500 FEET. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF LIQUID TIMES 1:8 TO 1:12
SNOW RATIOS GENERATES 10 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREAS
WHICH SEEMS TO MESH UP WELL WITH THE WPC WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS.
TIMING ON THIS WILL HOLD THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST OTHER
LOCATION SHOULD BE TOTALLY RAIN FOR THE EVENT.
OF SIGNIFICANCE TODAY WILL BE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW STACKING UP
WITH THE CLOSED SURFACE LOW. WINDS WILL BE REINFORCED AND QUITE
STRONG TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THE NPW FOR
FORT PECK LAKE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.
SPC MAINTAINS A NARROW STRIP OF GENERAL CONVECTION ALONG OUR
EASTERN ZONES TODAY. USING THE POT GRIDS...ADDED THUNDER TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GRIDS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WINDING DOWN DAY FOR THE SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS
INTO MANITOBA. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST BEGINNING IN THE
MORNING...MOSTLY ENDING BEFORE SUNSET.
THURSDAY WILL BEGIN DRY...BUT A COLD FRONT...SETTING UP BY A
SHORT-WAVE IN CANADA...WILL SEE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE
DISTURBANCE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COLDEST TODAY...AT AROUND 15-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS TO TREND WARMER TO AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SCT
.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH TUE...
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUT ITS PROGRESSION WILL
BE SLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MONTANA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST A LITTLE RAINFALL FROM THIS FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND...BUT SO
FAR IT LOOKS AS IF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO OUR
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WITH A RIDGE SET UP TO OUR WEST AND A RATHER DEEP LOW OVER
ONTARIO.
HICKFORD
&&
.AVIATION...
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM...STALLED OVER EASTERN MONTANA...WILL ALLOW
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES TODAY WITH
OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN AS THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD LINGERS OVER EASTERN
MONTANA. EXPECT RAIN TO FINALLY CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT VARYING WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS.
BMICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...GARFIELD...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PETROLEUM.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE NC
AND VA BORDER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIP BACK SOUTH INTO
NORTHEAST NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM TUESDAY...
12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN AND A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NJ. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS MOVED TO THE VA TIDEWATER REGION...WITH A
PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER NC AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING THROUGH THE MO VALLEY. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMATTERING
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA...SO THERE SO
SHOULD BE GOOD HEATING POTENTIAL...WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S GIVEN DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO AROUND H85..PER
NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. THE RAP SHOWS AN AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY
(WHICH ALREADY EXISTS IN THE FORM OF 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE)
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SLOWLY MIXES BACK TO THE NORTH. HI-RES
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS SOME CONVECTION WILL DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE AXIS AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE (GIVEN NO OTHER LARGER SCALE LIFT). DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS 30-35KT...ENHANCED NEAR THE FRONT...SO THE
CAPER/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE COULD SUPPORT A STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE
STORM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCE IS LOW AND COVERAGE WOULD BE
VERY ISOLATED WITHOUT BETTER FORCING. A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY
LINGER NEAR THE VA BORDER OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 259 AM TUESDAY...
THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY INTO VA MAY STILL AFFECT NORTHERN AREAS EARLY IN THE
DAY. OTHERWISE... THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL
NC DURING PEAK HEATING WHICH WOULD AID IN SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL CARRY WITH 50-60
POP WITH 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH QPF MOST AREAS... WITH LOCALLY 1 INCH
TOTALS. HIGHS IN THE 80S (NEAR 90 SOUTH).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD WILL BE A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT`S PROGGED TO CROSS THE MIDWEST THU AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI. SHORT WAVE RIDGING JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF REDUCTION IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME
THU...BUT LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE THU NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
CROSSES THE TN VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME FRI...A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS THE ASSOC TROUGH AXIS AND
SFC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE BULK SHEAR IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE ON FRI...THE BEST INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION
POTENTIAL...SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY EAST OF THE US-1 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL THU AND FRI IN THE
PREFRONTAL AIRMASS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER WITH A DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS MOVING INTO OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE LATE-WEEK TROUGH.
IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE QUICK ON THE HEELS OF
FRIDAY`S TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
LATE SAT...BUT LOOKS LIKE THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR WEATHER. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO BE NEAR- TO PERHAPS A
FEW DEG BELOW NORMAL.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN ELONGATED CLOSED MID/UPR LOW WILL TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...THUS PROMOTING A
FLATTENED SW FLOW OVER OUR REGION. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE BEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SFC BOUNDARY FEATURES TO OUR NORTH FOR AT
LEAST MONDAY. ANY SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THIS PATTERN WOULD MEAN A MUCH
WETTER FORECAST FOR OUR AREA. OVERALL...FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
THIS PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT
HAS SHIFTED BACK NORTH OF CENTRAL NC TODAY...WITH A SOUTH OR
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AREAWIDE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE VA
BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THE TAF SITES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING GENERALLY
WEST TO EAST...AND MORE LIKELY AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK..LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SLIPS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN. THE FRONT WILL
LINGER IN THE AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOSTLY PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/22
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1040 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO NORTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... THEN STALL OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM TUESDAY...
12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN AND A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NJ. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS MOVED TO THE VA TIDEWATER REGION...WITH A
PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER NC AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING THROUGH THE MO VALLEY. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMATTERING
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA...SO THERE SO
SHOULD BE GOOD HEATING POTENTIAL...WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S GIVEN DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO AROUND H85..PER
NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. THE RAP SHOWS AN AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY
(WHICH ALREADY EXISTS IN THE FORM OF 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE)
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SLOWLY MIXES BACK TO THE NORTH. HI-RES
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS SOME CONVECTION WILL DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE AXIS AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE (GIVEN NO OTHER LARGER SCALE LIFT). DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS 30-35KT...ENHANCED NEAR THE FRONT...SO THE
CAPER/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE COULD SUPPORT A STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE
STORM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCE IS LOW AND COVERAGE WOULD BE
VERY ISOLATED WITHOUT BETTER FORCING. A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY
LINGER NEAR THE VA BORDER OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 259 AM TUESDAY...
THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY INTO VA MAY STILL AFFECT NORTHERN AREAS EARLY IN THE
DAY. OTHERWISE... THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL
NC DURING PEAK HEATING WHICH WOULD AID IN SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL CARRY WITH 50-60
POP WITH 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH QPF MOST AREAS... WITH LOCALLY 1 INCH
TOTALS. HIGHS IN THE 80S (NEAR 90 SOUTH).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD WILL BE A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT`S PROGGED TO CROSS THE MIDWEST THU AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI. SHORT WAVE RIDGING JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF REDUCTION IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME
THU...BUT LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE THU NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
CROSSES THE TN VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME FRI...A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS THE ASSOC TROUGH AXIS AND
SFC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE BULK SHEAR IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE ON FRI...THE BEST INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION
POTENTIAL...SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY EAST OF THE US-1 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL THU AND FRI IN THE
PREFRONTAL AIRMASS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER WITH A DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS MOVING INTO OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE LATE-WEEK TROUGH.
IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE QUICK ON THE HEELS OF
FRIDAY`S TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
LATE SAT...BUT LOOKS LIKE THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR WEATHER. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO BE NEAR- TO PERHAPS A
FEW DEG BELOW NORMAL.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN ELONGATED CLOSED MID/UPR LOW WILL TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...THUS PROMOTING A
FLATTENED SW FLOW OVER OUR REGION. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE BEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SFC BOUNDARY FEATURES TO OUR NORTH FOR AT
LEAST MONDAY. ANY SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THIS PATTERN WOULD MEAN A MUCH
WETTER FORECAST FOR OUR AREA. OVERALL...FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
THIS PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM TUESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THOUGH THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CHANCE WILL INCREASE TO
LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/22
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...BADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
125 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 125 AM TUESDAY...
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS MOISTURE POOLING ALONG A STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY IN VICINITY OF OR JUST NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. 925 AND
850MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS THIS MOISTURE EXTENDING IN A WEST-EAST BAND
WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. A MID
LEVEL S/W DEPICTED BY THE NEAR TERM MODELS AND CONFIRMED BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL LIFT NEWD
OVERNIGHT...CROSSING OUR REGION IN THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME. WHILE THE
CAM PRESENTATIONS DEPICT VIRTUALLY NOTHING ACROSS OUR REGION....THE
HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN DRIFTING NEWD ACROSS NE
GEORGIA INTO UPSTATE SC AHEAD OF THE S/W. THE HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING LIGHT PRECIP FALLING ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-40/85 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. GRANTED...PRECIP WILL BE FALLING
FROM A CLOUD BASE 8000-10000FT (AS PER 00Z GSO SOUNDING)...SO WHAT
RAIN THAT DOES REACH THE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT...TOTALING NO WORSE
THAN A HUNDREDTH OR A TRACE AT MOST SPOTS.
MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR 60-LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN /FLATTEN/ AND
TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON TUE. THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE VA BORDER TUE AF/EVE...SIMILAR TO THIS AFT/EVE.
WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE TRIAD...ON THE
ORDER OF 250-500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. HOWEVER...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED ALONG/NORTH OF THE VA BORDER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL
FORCING (OR A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN LARGELY
NORTH OF CENTRAL NC. DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES WILL BE
MORE POSSIBLE ON TUE THAN TODAY GIVEN A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE AFT/EVE HOURS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE
TIMING/MAGNITUDE/LOCATION OF SUCH FEATURES IS LOW AT THIS RANGE...
ESP IN AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...
WILL CONFINE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO AREAS NEAR THE VA
BORDER DURING THE LATE AFT/EVE HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO DAY...
ALBEIT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S. LOWS TUE NIGHT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...IN THE MID 60S. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...
WED-THU: A MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELONGATED AND SHEARED...WITH A
REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT THE MODELS SUGGEST WILL REACH THE GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION BY EARLY WED...THEN DRIFT TO THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY VICINITY (MAINLY NORTH OF NC) BY THU AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL BE
QUITE WARM /IN THE 80S/ AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOTH DAYS OWING TO
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM...AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S.
THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED...MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD
CONSEQUENTLY BE OVER THE NRN PIEDMONT AND NRN COASTAL PLAIN /IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE PASSING PERTURBATION ALOFT AND THE
FRONTAL ZONE/ WITH A LESSER CHANCE ELSEWHERE...PROBABLY DRIVEN BY AN
APPALACHIAN LEE TROUGH AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE EDGES
OF MORNING CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR AN MCV
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION...WHICH PARTICULARLY THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS OF THE GFS INDICATE MAY CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
SERVE AS A TRIGGER ON THU. ASIDE FROM MESOSCALE INFLUENCES SUCH AS
THE POSSIBLE MCV...THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE WEAK /GENERALLY BETWEEN 20-30 KTS/ AND SUPPORTIVE OF
PULSE AND MULTI-CELLULAR STORM MODES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: ON THE HEELS OF THE LEAD PERTURBATION EXITING
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THU AFTERNOON...AND FOLLOWING BRIEF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING LATE THU-EARLY THU NIGHT...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH ALOFT AND PRECEDING HEIGHTS FALLS WILL APPROACH/
CROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE THU NIGHT-FRI. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT THE MODELS INDICATE WILL
CROSS CENTRAL NC FRI AFT-EARLY FRI NIGHT...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ABOUT
6 HOURS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WHILE SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY MAXIMIZE DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WIDESPREAD MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND STILL-RELATIVELY-WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO
INCREASE ONLY TO AROUND 30 KTS...SHOULD MITIGATE ANY APPRECIABLE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
SAT-MON: A VORTEX WILL SETTLE SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...AND THIS WILL CAUSE A SECONDARY POLAR
SURFACE FRONT TO CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES CENTERED AROUND
LATE SAT OR SAT EVE. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL WARM AND DRY THE AIR IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AS WELL
AS LIMIT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE FRONT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE
A WARM AND MAINLY DRY DAY SAT...WITH JUST THE SLIGHTEST OF CHANCES
OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER NEAR THE VA BORDER DURING THE LATE AFT OR
EVE. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN A MILD AND DRY DAY
SUN...BUT THE RETREAT OF THE FRONTAL ZONE --BENEATH AN AXIS OF 850-
700 MB WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION-- WILL YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS SUN
NIGHT...AND SLIGHT CONVECTIVE CHANCES MON.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM TUESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THOUGH THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CHANCE WILL INCREASE TO
LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...BADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1201 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH 1630 UTC SHOW A TREND FOR
THINNING CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. OVERALL...THE 12-15 UTC CAM HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES SUGGEST
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DRY SLOT WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL CO-LOCATE WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS UNCHANGED...AND LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CAN WARM FROM SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA BASED ON THINNING CLOUD COVER. IF TEMPERATURES CAN CLIMB
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL THREAT WOULD
INCREASE. FINALLY...NEAR WIND ADVISORY GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS GRADIENT WINDS
INCREASE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 13 UTC. THE CONDITIONAL MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS UNCHANGED AND DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY/FAR
THE DRY SLOT IS ABLE TO PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA...AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND UNTIL
15 UTC GIVEN ADVECTION/UPSLOPE-AIDED FOG THAT IS BEING REPORTED BY
SEVERAL ASOS/AWOS SITES FROM HETTINGER UP TO WILLISTON AND MINOT.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO TODAY/S FORECAST.
THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE STORMS AND A VERY CONDITIONAL
RISK OF WEAK TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY.
THE BACKGROUND PATTERN WITH A 500-MB LOW IN SOUTHEAST MT AND A
SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST MT WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH
EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL ND IS A RATHER
CLOSE FIT TO THE COLD CORE TORNADO COMPOSITE CHART. HOWEVER...IT
IS NOT CLEAR THAT INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ACTUAL TORNADO POTENTIAL. RECENT RAP MODEL RUNS
HAVE SHOWN 0-3-KM SBCAPE PEAKING AT ABOUT 150 J/KG AND 0-1 KM VGP
VALUES ONLY AROUND 0.1. RESEARCH SUGGESTS MEDIAN VALUES OF 0-3-KM
SBCAPE OF 210 J/KG AND 0-1-KM VGP VALUES OF 0.4 FOR COLD CORE
TORNADO EVENTS...WHICH SUGGESTS TODAY/S ENVIRONMENT COULD END UP
FALLING SHORT OF THE NEEDED LOW-LEVEL CAPE/VORTICITY SETTING THAT
IS NEEDED FOR THESE TYPE OF EVENTS. THE 06 UTC NAM REMAINS MORE
ROBUST WITH BOTH 0-3-KM SBCAPE AND 0-1-KM VGP THAN THE REMAINDER
OF GUIDANCE...BUT IT HAS LOWERED VALUES A BIT WHEN COMPARED TO ITS
00 UTC RUN...AND IT MAY BE OVERDOING AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SOMEWHAT
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM IN NEB AND SD AT 1145 UTC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND STRENGTH OF WINDS.
CURRENTLY...THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS HAD MERGED INTO ONE - CENTERED
OVER MONTANA/WYOMING. ONE OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WAS ALONG THE CENTRAL BORDER OF ND/SD AND MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD...ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD IN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA.
FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTENSIFYING THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN MONTANA TODAY AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED SURFACE LOW BENEATH
IT. AS THE STACKED SYSTEM INTENSIFIES IT LIFTS NORTHWARD...AND A DRY
SLOT DEVELOPS THAT PUNCHES INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 60 KNOTS. A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING/ARCING SOUTHEASTWARD LIFTS NORTHWARD SUPPORTED BY
THE DRY SLOT. THE MODELS INDICATE A THINK BAND OF ELEVATED CAPE
ALONG THE ARC OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THE BAND OF ELEVATED CAPE IS
COINCIDENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER BULK SHEAR
VALUES...GIVING CONFIDENCE THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE TIMING OF THIS WOULD BE MAINLY
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND BE MAINLY IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS.
REGARDING WINDS TODAY...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
LIFTING LOW LEVEL TROUGH AT 15 TO 25 MPH. BEHIND THE TROUGH AND
COINCIDENT WITH THE DRY SLOT IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP.
TONIGHT THE CENTER OF THE STACKED SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
WEST WINDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LATER SHIFTS
MAY ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR STRONG WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
POTENTIAL FROST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND IS THE MAIN MESSAGE IN THE LONG TERM.
ON THE LARGE SCALE...MEAN NORTHWEST 500-MB FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RELATIVELY DEEP
HUDSON BAY LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INTRUSIONS
OF COOLER CANADIAN/CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR INTO THE REGION AND THAT
IN TURN FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY
THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND GUIDANCE WE USED TO BUILD
THE FORECAST. THE 00 UTC GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS BASIC THEME DESPITE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTIONS OVER CANADA AND THUS
THE DEPTH AND SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW. FROST
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN ND...AND
WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO MORE OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE WILL LIKELY NEED SEVERAL FROST HEADLINES /ADVISORIES/ BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE 00 UTC GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICTIONS OF SURFACE RIDGING AND STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM
BOTH OF THOSE MODELS...FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING MAY BE THE
CANDIDATE FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING FROST.
IN FACT...THE 00 UTC GFS-BASED MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST ND COULD HAVE A BONAFIDE FREEZE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS DURING THAT TIME FRAME THAT THE GFS MEX
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A LOW OF 28 F AT HETTINGER...AND THE WARMEST
MEMBER OF THE 00 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MOS SUITE IS ONLY 32 F THEN.
OTHERWISE...WE DO HAVE SOME SHOWER CHANCES SHOWN IN THE FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE
OFFERED SOME AGREEMENT ON WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
LIFR/IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR RANGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY. MORNING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR OVERTAKES MUCH OF THE AREA
BEHIND AN OCCLUDED FRONT. HOWEVER...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL ENTER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KDIK LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
844 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 13 UTC. THE CONDITIONAL MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS UNCHANGED AND DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY/FAR
THE DRY SLOT IS ABLE TO PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA...AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND UNTIL
15 UTC GIVEN ADVECTION/UPSLOPE-AIDED FOG THAT IS BEING REPORTED BY
SEVERAL ASOS/AWOS SITES FROM HETTINGER UP TO WILLISTON AND MINOT.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO TODAY/S FORECAST.
THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE STORMS AND A VERY CONDITIONAL
RISK OF WEAK TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY.
THE BACKGROUND PATTERN WITH A 500-MB LOW IN SOUTHEAST MT AND A
SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST MT WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH
EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL ND IS A RATHER
CLOSE FIT TO THE COLD CORE TORNADO COMPOSITE CHART. HOWEVER...IT
IS NOT CLEAR THAT INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ACTUAL TORNADO POTENTIAL. RECENT RAP MODEL RUNS
HAVE SHOWN 0-3-KM SBCAPE PEAKING AT ABOUT 150 J/KG AND 0-1 KM VGP
VALUES ONLY AROUND 0.1. RESEARCH SUGGESTS MEDIAN VALUES OF 0-3-KM
SBCAPE OF 210 J/KG AND 0-1-KM VGP VALUES OF 0.4 FOR COLD CORE
TORNADO EVENTS...WHICH SUGGESTS TODAY/S ENVIRONMENT COULD END UP
FALLING SHORT OF THE NEEDED LOW-LEVEL CAPE/VORTICITY SETTING THAT
IS NEEDED FOR THESE TYPE OF EVENTS. THE 06 UTC NAM REMAINS MORE
ROBUST WITH BOTH 0-3-KM SBCAPE AND 0-1-KM VGP THAN THE REMAINDER
OF GUIDANCE...BUT IT HAS LOWERED VALUES A BIT WHEN COMPARED TO ITS
00 UTC RUN...AND IT MAY BE OVERDOING AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SOMEWHAT
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM IN NEB AND SD AT 1145 UTC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND STRENGTH OF WINDS.
CURRENTLY...THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS HAD MERGED INTO ONE - CENTERED
OVER MONTANA/WYOMING. ONE OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WAS ALONG THE CENTRAL BORDER OF ND/SD AND MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD...ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD IN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA.
FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTENSIFYING THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN MONTANA TODAY AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED SURFACE LOW BENEATH
IT. AS THE STACKED SYSTEM INTENSIFIES IT LIFTS NORTHWARD...AND A DRY
SLOT DEVELOPS THAT PUNCHES INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 60 KNOTS. A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING/ARCING SOUTHEASTWARD LIFTS NORTHWARD SUPPORTED BY
THE DRY SLOT. THE MODELS INDICATE A THINK BAND OF ELEVATED CAPE
ALONG THE ARC OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THE BAND OF ELEVATED CAPE IS
COINCIDENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER BULK SHEAR
VALUES...GIVING CONFIDENCE THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE TIMING OF THIS WOULD BE MAINLY
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND BE MAINLY IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS.
REGARDING WINDS TODAY...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
LIFTING LOW LEVEL TROUGH AT 15 TO 25 MPH. BEHIND THE TROUGH AND
COINCIDENT WITH THE DRY SLOT IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP.
TONIGHT THE CENTER OF THE STACKED SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
WEST WINDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LATER SHIFTS
MAY ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR STRONG WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
POTENTIAL FROST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND IS THE MAIN MESSAGE IN THE LONG TERM.
ON THE LARGE SCALE...MEAN NORTHWEST 500-MB FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RELATIVELY DEEP
HUDSON BAY LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INTRUSIONS
OF COOLER CANADIAN/CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR INTO THE REGION AND THAT
IN TURN FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY
THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND GUIDANCE WE USED TO BUILD
THE FORECAST. THE 00 UTC GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS BASIC THEME DESPITE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTIONS OVER CANADA AND THUS
THE DEPTH AND SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW. FROST
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN ND...AND
WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO MORE OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE WILL LIKELY NEED SEVERAL FROST HEADLINES /ADVISORIES/ BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE 00 UTC GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICTIONS OF SURFACE RIDGING AND STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM
BOTH OF THOSE MODELS...FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING MAY BE THE
CANDIDATE FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING FROST.
IN FACT...THE 00 UTC GFS-BASED MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST ND COULD HAVE A BONAFIDE FREEZE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS DURING THAT TIME FRAME THAT THE GFS MEX
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A LOW OF 28 F AT HETTINGER...AND THE WARMEST
MEMBER OF THE 00 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MOS SUITE IS ONLY 32 F THEN.
OTHERWISE...WE DO HAVE SOME SHOWER CHANCES SHOWN IN THE FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE
OFFERED SOME AGREEMENT ON WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 840 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
WILL THEN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY EVENING. CEILINGS ARE
ALSO FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO THE VFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RETURNING TO THE MVFR RANGE ACROSS
WESTERN ND ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
654 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND UNTIL
15 UTC GIVEN ADVECTION/UPSLOPE-AIDED FOG THAT IS BEING REPORTED BY
SEVERAL ASOS/AWOS SITES FROM HETTINGER UP TO WILLISTON AND MINOT.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO TODAY/S FORECAST.
THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE STORMS AND A VERY CONDITIONAL
RISK OF WEAK TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY.
THE BACKGROUND PATTERN WITH A 500-MB LOW IN SOUTHEAST MT AND A
SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST MT WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH
EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL ND IS A RATHER
CLOSE FIT TO THE COLD CORE TORNADO COMPOSITE CHART. HOWEVER...IT
IS NOT CLEAR THAT INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ACTUAL TORNADO POTENTIAL. RECENT RAP MODEL RUNS
HAVE SHOWN 0-3-KM SBCAPE PEAKING AT ABOUT 150 J/KG AND 0-1 KM VGP
VALUES ONLY AROUND 0.1. RESEARCH SUGGESTS MEDIAN VALUES OF 0-3-KM
SBCAPE OF 210 J/KG AND 0-1-KM VGP VALUES OF 0.4 FOR COLD CORE
TORNADO EVENTS...WHICH SUGGESTS TODAY/S ENVIRONMENT COULD END UP
FALLING SHORT OF THE NEEDED LOW-LEVEL CAPE/VORTICITY SETTING THAT
IS NEEDED FOR THESE TYPE OF EVENTS. THE 06 UTC NAM REMAINS MORE
ROBUST WITH BOTH 0-3-KM SBCAPE AND 0-1-KM VGP THAN THE REMAINDER
OF GUIDANCE...BUT IT HAS LOWERED VALUES A BIT WHEN COMPARED TO ITS
00 UTC RUN...AND IT MAY BE OVERDOING AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SOMEWHAT
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM IN NEB AND SD AT 1145 UTC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND STRENGTH OF WINDS.
CURRENTLY...THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS HAD MERGED INTO ONE - CENTERED
OVER MONTANA/WYOMING. ONE OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WAS ALONG THE CENTRAL BORDER OF ND/SD AND MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD...ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD IN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA.
FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTENSIFYING THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN MONTANA TODAY AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED SURFACE LOW BENEATH
IT. AS THE STACKED SYSTEM INTENSIFIES IT LIFTS NORTHWARD...AND A DRY
SLOT DEVELOPS THAT PUNCHES INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 60 KNOTS. A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING/ARCING SOUTHEASTWARD LIFTS NORTHWARD SUPPORTED BY
THE DRY SLOT. THE MODELS INDICATE A THINK BAND OF ELEVATED CAPE
ALONG THE ARC OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THE BAND OF ELEVATED CAPE IS
COINCIDENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER BULK SHEAR
VALUES...GIVING CONFIDENCE THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE TIMING OF THIS WOULD BE MAINLY
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND BE MAINLY IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS.
REGARDING WINDS TODAY...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
LIFTING LOW LEVEL TROUGH AT 15 TO 25 MPH. BEHIND THE TROUGH AND
COINCIDENT WITH THE DRY SLOT IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP.
TONIGHT THE CENTER OF THE STACKED SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
WEST WINDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LATER SHIFTS
MAY ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR STRONG WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
POTENTIAL FROST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND IS THE MAIN MESSAGE IN THE LONG TERM.
ON THE LARGE SCALE...MEAN NORTHWEST 500-MB FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RELATIVELY DEEP
HUDSON BAY LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INTRUSIONS
OF COOLER CANADIAN/CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR INTO THE REGION AND THAT
IN TURN FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY
THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND GUIDANCE WE USED TO BUILD
THE FORECAST. THE 00 UTC GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS BASIC THEME DESPITE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTIONS OVER CANADA AND THUS
THE DEPTH AND SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW. FROST
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN ND...AND
WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO MORE OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE WILL LIKELY NEED SEVERAL FROST HEADLINES /ADVISORIES/ BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE 00 UTC GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICTIONS OF SURFACE RIDGING AND STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM
BOTH OF THOSE MODELS...FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING MAY BE THE
CANDIDATE FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING FROST.
IN FACT...THE 00 UTC GFS-BASED MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST ND COULD HAVE A BONAFIDE FREEZE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS DURING THAT TIME FRAME THAT THE GFS MEX
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A LOW OF 28 F AT HETTINGER...AND THE WARMEST
MEMBER OF THE 00 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MOS SUITE IS ONLY 32 F THEN.
OTHERWISE...WE DO HAVE SOME SHOWER CHANCES SHOWN IN THE FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE
OFFERED SOME AGREEMENT ON WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
WILL THEN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY EVENING. CEILINGS ARE
ALSO FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO THE VFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RETURNING TO THE MVFR RANGE ACROSS
WESTERN ND ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
628 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
620 PM UPDATE...MCS IS ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY AND I HAVE
INCREASED POP ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AS INCREASED
THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. CURRENTLY THE STORMS HAVE BEEN
BORDERLINE SEVERE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL OCCUR. WITH THE SUN GOING DOWN WE EXPECT STORMS TO
WEAKEN A BIT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING DECENT
INSTABILITY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH CAPE VALUES OF 500 - 1000 J/KG
AND WITH ARRIVAL OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING OUR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES JUMP TO ABOUT 7C/KM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS.
5 PM UPDATE...INCREASED POP AND ADDED MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RATHER COMPLICATED PATTERN LASTS INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SHALLOW WARM FRONT ACROSS WV AND KY...ALIGNED
MORE OR LESS IN AN EAST- WEST FASHION. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER KY
IS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG FRONT AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS AREA
FOR PRECIP AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. COULD SEE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF
KY...TRACKING INTO WV LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE A MODEST
ADJUSTMENT TO POPS...TOWARDS THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO BE BE
LATCHING INTO THIS IDEA. CARRIED THUNDER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE
GRIDS AS WELL...WITH A BREAK EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND DIURNAL UPSWING
FOR WED. USED A MODEL BLEND FOR NEAR TERM TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT EXITS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. GOOD WAA AND INSTABILITY INCREASES AS ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STORM FORMATION IS A GOOD BE OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXITS ON
FRIDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. SOILS ARE MOIST
TO WET AND SOME OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR WATER
PROBLEMS. THE ONLY GOOD THING MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING
ALONG AND THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RAINFALL AFFECTS OVER THE AREA.
WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND STARTS TO BRIEFLY DRY US OUT.
GENERALLY KEPT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUICK PROGRESSION OF WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS
AS YET ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE ON TIMING AND POSITION OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY...
WARM FRONT SLIDING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IN FORECAST AREA EXPECTED
TO START THE PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS OF ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TO OUR WEST
WHERE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS WORKING ACROSS KY ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
AREA HAS SERVED AS A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD
SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS AREA OF CONVECTION REACHES
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA THEN CIGS AND VISBY DECREASE...GENERALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFT 00Z HAVE MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS...IN LINE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE...THEN BRING IFR INTO KEKN FOR A SHORT WHILE...AGAIN IN
LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES. CURRENT THINKING IS CONVECTION
MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED...AND LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY VARY DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION. COULD SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M L M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN WITH A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC/MPK
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
502 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
5 PM UPDATE...INCREASED POP AND ADDED MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RATHER COMPLICATED PATTERN LASTS INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SHALLOW WARM FRONT ACROSS WV AND KY...ALIGNED
MORE OR LESS IN AN EAST- WEST FASHION. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER KY
IS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG FRONT AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS AREA
FOR PRECIP AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. COULD SEE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF
KY...TRACKING INTO WV LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE A MODEST
ADJUSTMENT TO POPS...TOWARDS THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO BE BE
LATCHING INTO THIS IDEA. CARRIED THUNDER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE
GRIDS AS WELL...WITH A BREAK EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND DIURNAL UPSWING
FOR WED. USED A MODEL BLEND FOR NEAR TERM TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT EXITS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. GOOD WAA AND INSTABILITY INCREASES AS ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STORM FORMATION IS A GOOD BE OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXITS ON
FRIDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. SOILS ARE MOIST
TO WET AND SOME OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR WATER
PROBLEMS. THE ONLY GOOD THING MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING
ALONG AND THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RAINFALL AFFECTS OVER THE AREA.
WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND STARTS TO BRIEFLY DRY US OUT.
GENERALLY KEPT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUICK PROGRESSION OF WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS
AS YET ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE ON TIMING AND POSITION OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY...
WARM FRONT SLIDING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IN FORECAST AREA EXPECTED
TO START THE PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS OF ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TO OUR WEST
WHERE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS WORKING ACROSS KY ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
AREA HAS SERVED AS A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD
SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS AREA OF CONVECTION REACHES
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA THEN CIGS AND VISBY DECREASE...GENERALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFT 00Z HAVE MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS...IN LINE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE...THEN BRING IFR INTO KEKN FOR A SHORT WHILE...AGAIN IN
LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES. CURRENT THINKING IS CONVECTION
MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED...AND LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY VARY DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION. COULD SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN WITH A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC/MPK
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
423 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOLLOWING
BEHIND ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THESE FRONTS...COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF CONVECTION RIDING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A H5 S/W. THE CONVECTION WILL WORK ACROSS THE FA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...PUSHING THIS INITIAL SURGE THRU THEN BRINGING ANOTHER
WAVE UP AROUND 00Z ASSOCIATED WITH MORE ENERGY EJECTING UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THAT WAVE WILL AFFECT THE MAINLY SRN SECTIONS.
PCPN WILL THEN BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN FROM W TO E AFTER 03Z.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. CANT
RULE OUT SOMETHING ISOLATED POPPING UP...SO CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN A LITTLE. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
CDFNT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GOOD WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL PUSH HIGHS THURSDAY INTO THE
UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DEPARTS EAST.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING SWIFTLY ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
BEFORE THE WAVE SCOOTS EASTWARD. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH A NARROW
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING PRECIP CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WENT CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND WHICH SHOWS
A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIDAY
WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. READINGS
WILL EXHIBIT A COOLING TREND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS HOVERING
AROUND 60. LOOK FOR A REBOUND BACK NEAR 70 BY TUESDAY UNDER MODEST
WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT E/NE THROUGH THE
FCST AREA THROUGH THE AFT AND EVE. SHOWERS WILL MOVE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KCVG AND KLUK THROUGH 00Z.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUBSEQUENT ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO AREA THIS AFT AND EVE. MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS AND
LOWERING OF CIGS IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
MORE LIMITED FOR KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND PRECEDING PRECIPITATION. DID INCLUDE
THUNDER FOR KCVG...AND KLUK... AS ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR SECONDARY ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR ALL TERMINALS.
AFTER 06Z... INSTABILITY WILL WANE AND FORCING WILL WEAKEN...
THEREFORE EXPECT THAT SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALL TERMINALS... ALLOWING FOR MVFR
CIGS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE RIGHT NOW. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS AND MIST BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
229 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RATHER COMPLICATED PATTERN LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SHALLOW
WARM FRONT ACROSS WV AND KY...ALIGNED MORE OR LESS IN AN EAST-
WEST FASHION. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER KY IS TRACKING EASTWARD
ALONG FRONT AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS AREA FOR PRECIP AND
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. COULD SEE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF KY...TRACKING
INTO WV LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE A MODEST ADJUSTMENT TO
POPS...TOWARDS THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO BE BE LATCHING INTO THIS
IDEA. CARRIED THUNDER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE GRIDS AS WELL...WITH
A BREAK EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND DIURNAL UPSWING FOR WED. USED A
MODEL BLEND FOR NEAR TERM TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT EXITS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. GOOD WAA AND INSTABILITY INCREASES AS ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STORM FORMATION IS A GOOD BE OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXITS ON
FRIDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE ASSOCICATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. SOILS ARE MOIST
TO WET AND SOME OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR WATER
PROBLEMS. THE ONLY GOOD THING MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING
ALONG AND THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RAINFALL AFFECTS OVER THE AREA.
WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND STARTS TO BRIEFLY DRY US OUT.
GENERALLY KEPT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUICK PROGRESSION OF WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS
AS YET ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE ON TIMING AND POSITION OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY...
WARM FRONT SLIDING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IN FORECAST AREA EXPECTED
TO START THE PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS OF ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TO OUR WEST
WHERE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS WORKING ACROSS KY ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
AREA HAS SERVED AS A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD
SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS AREA OF CONVECTION REACHES
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA THEN CIGS AND VISBY DECREASE...GENERALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFT 00Z HAVE MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS...IN LINE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE...THEN BRING IFR INTO KEKN FOR A SHORT WHILE...AGAIN IN
LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES. CURRENT THINKING IS CONVECTION
MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED...AND LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY VARY DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION. COULD SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN WITH A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
156 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RATHER COMPLICATED PATTERN LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SHALLOW
WARM FRONT ACROSS WV AND KY...ALIGNED MORE OR LESS IN AN EAST-
WEST FASHION. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER KY IS TRACKING EASTWARD
ALONG FRONT AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS AREA FOR PRECIP AND
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. COULD SEE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF KY...TRACKING
INTO WV LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE A MODEST ADJUSTMENT TO
POPS...TOWARDS THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO BE BE LATCHING INTO THIS
IDEA. CARRIED THUNDER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE GRIDS AS WELL...WITH
A BREAK EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND DIURNAL UPSWING FOR WED. USED A
MODEL BLEND FOR NEAR TERM TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD FEATURES INCREASING WARMTH...MOISTURE AND THUS
INSTABILITY...UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF RIPPLES WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH CROSSES THURSDAY MORNING. THE NAM APPEARS TO HAVE A
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE WITH STRONG LIFT RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF
HIGH QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN WV WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY FARTHER NORTH PER GFS
SOLUTION WHERE A LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CREATES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW.
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE UNSTABLE AIR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS BOUNDARIES ARE LIKELY TO GET LEFT
BEHIND FROM THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM AND ITS RAINFALL. OTHERWISE
FORCING BECOMES WEAK TO NEGATIVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN
DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT SUGGESTS THE AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY SETS UP OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH UP TO 2 KJ/KG CAPE
PROGGED THERE BUT JUST ABOUT 20 KTS OF VEERING FLOW...SPC MARGINAL
RISK LOOKS GOOD.
STABILITY INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THE CHANCE / STRENGTH OF
THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...ALTHOUGH AREA COVERAGE OF RAINFALL WARRANTS CONTINUED
LIKELY POPS. THE NAM SLOWS THE FRONT LATE...AND STILL HAS IT NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST IN COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES MORE CLOSELY REFLECTS THE GFS TIMING...WITH
SHOWERS PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING.
GENERALLY RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD IN LIGHT
OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUICK PROGRESSION OF WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD AND EXIT THE REGION BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL BE ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN LINE WITH BRINGING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. BUT YET ANOTHER SYSTEM IS POISED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY...
WARM FRONT SLIDING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IN FORECAST AREA EXPECTED
TO START THE PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS OF ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TO OUR WEST
WHERE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS WORKING ACROSS KY ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
AREA HAS SERVED AS A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD
SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS AREA OF CONVECTION REACHES
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA THEN CIGS AND VISBY DECREASE...GENERALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFT 00Z HAVE MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS...IN LINE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE...THEN BRING IFR INTO KEKN FOR A SHORT WHILE...AGAIN IN
LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES. CURRENT THINKING IS CONVECTION
MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED...AND LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY VARY DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION. COULD SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN WITH A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1155 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES OR HIGH SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME STRATUS TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF I-44. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE OF PATCHES OF GROUND FOG
AROUND SUNRISE...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
CMS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER TO FINE-TUNE THE TIMING OF
REMAINING POPS. SO FAR...THIS SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE.
THE REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO END COMPLETELY AROUND 10 TO 11 PM.
THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME VERY DIFFUSE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REFORM
WELL TO THE WEST TOMORROW...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. SOME PATCHES OF GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BUT WILL NOT
LAST LONG IF THEY DO DEVELOP.
AT THIS TIME...NO FURTHER FORECAST CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
AVIATION...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z AROUND
KPNC...BUT ALL OTHER STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN 1/3 OF
OKLAHOMA AFTER 00Z. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS AT MOST SITES WILL DROP
OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TOWARD SUNRISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME DOMINANT...AND WILL INCREASE SLOWLY IN SPEED THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CMS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
ATTENTION IS PRIMARILY ON THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA BY 00Z... THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER
00Z... ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS HIGHER THAN INITIALIZATION OR SYNOPTIC MODELS WOULD GIVE FOR
THIS EVENING. AS DISCUSSED ELSEWHERE... THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE FIRST WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH
HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND IMPROVING WIND FIELDS WITH TIME THAT
WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AND SOME TORNADO RISK. FARTHER
NORTH... AIRMASS WILL HAVE WHAT EVOLVES INTO A MORE INVERTED-V
LOOK TO THE SOUNDING SO WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT TO THE
NORTH. DRYLINE PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN LURKING IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE AREA OR JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT AND
WASHING OUT. BUT THEN TOMORROW IT WILL BE VERY WARM... ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 90S. THEN A
MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
BRING STORM CHANCES AND THEN COOLER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 57 89 66 85 / 10 0 10 30
HOBART OK 57 92 64 86 / 0 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 95 67 88 / 0 0 10 30
GAGE OK 53 90 56 78 / 0 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 57 88 66 84 / 60 0 20 20
DURANT OK 66 90 68 85 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
540 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN TO OUT SOUTH THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS AND CROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
GENERALLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO SE /WITHIN THE
285-290K THETA CHANNEL/ WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN PLENTY OF THICK
CLOUDS AND A FEW AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SLIDING NE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE MTNS NE OF KIPT
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SFC CFRONT
/OVER LAKE ONTARIO AT 18Z/ DROPS SE LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. MEAN SFC-900 MB FLOW ACRS THE NE ZONES WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THESE FEATURES
SLIDE SE ACROSS THE ENDLESS MTNS REGION OF NCENT AND NE PENN.
THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIP THE 22-05Z PERIOD AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT SHARPENS...PRIOR TO ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING EAST FROM THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
THE MAIN IMPACT AREA FOR SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT WILL BE
CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SCENT MTNS... WHERE UP
TO AROUND ONE- TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFL IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW
SPOTS. MOST PLACES SHOULD ESCAPE WITH LESS QPF THAN THAT.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH 00Z WED TO BE FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH AT BEST NEAR AND JUST TO THE SW OF A LINE FROM
KBFD...TO KUNV AND KSEG. THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE CWA SHOULDN`T
SEE MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
LAURELS WILL RECEIVE APPROX ANOTHER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAIN...AS LLVLS MOISTEN UP WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE
40S...AND SOME BRIEF/MDT RAIN ACCOMPANIES SMALL AREAS OF 35-40 DBZ
RADAR REFL.
MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED IN THE 21Z-23Z PERIOD TODAY
AS THE CURRENT LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD DEPICTED ON REGION 88D MOSAIC
LOOP GRADUALLY DISSOLVES.
LOW TEMPS EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40F ACROSS THE FAR
NE...TO AROUND 50F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. SHOULD SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT LLVL DRYING/CLEARING PUSH
INTO OUR FAR NE ZONES...TEMPS COULD COOL OFF BY ANOTHER 3-5 DEG F
WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL PIVOT TO A NW-SE ORIENTATION
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE
SRN MID ATLANTIC...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER INTERIOR
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
LATEST 09Z SREF...12Z OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS AND HRRR MODEL BLEND
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SW 1/3 OF THE AREA FOR GREATEST RISK OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN...WILL BE CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH WITH JUST
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY DRIZZLE AND A FEW STRAY ISOLATED SHOWERS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS WED.
THE LACK OF RAINFALL IN MOST PLACES WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO BE ABOUT 8-12 DEG F MILDER THAN TODAY /TUESDAY/.
THERE WILL BE A VERY NARROW TEMP RANGE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE 3-6F BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE EAST...BUT NEAR NORMAL /LOWER TO MID 60S/ ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPTATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN PA
FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING A STRIPE OF 0.25+
INCH QPF. TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO MODERATE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS AROUND 70F BY THURSDAY.
MAX POPS ARE ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA BY 00Z SAT. FROPA TIMING WOULD FAVOR
THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF
TSTMS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THIS WEEKEND WITH SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT FCST TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
BOUNDARY GETS WITH THE GFS RETURNING RAIN TO THE AREA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DESPITE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN PATTERN...ODDS ARE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL SAT-SUN. SUNDAY LOOKS
LIKE CHILLIEST DAY THIS WEEKEND AND CANT RULE OUT FROST POTENTIAL.
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAN...COOL...AND STABLE AIR HAS RESULTED IN GOOD VISIBILITY
AND VFR CIGS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CIG AT AOO LOWER...BUT
OTHERWISE CIGS ARE AROUND 9000 FEET. FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE AND
LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE NY BORDER. STRONGER THUNDERSTORM SE OH
BUT A MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS IS OUT THERE...AND
THIS STORM HAS WEAKEN THE LAST FEW MINUTES.
21Z TAFS ADJUSTED FOR THE GOOD CONDITIONS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL BATTLE A WARM
FRONT...TRYING TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE INVOF
KJST. MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE
WRN MTN TAF SITES TONIGHT...AS THE MOIST /ALBEIT RATHER WEAK/
EAST TO SERLY LLVL FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 09Z SREF
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 85 PERCENT OR HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR CIGS BELOW
1000 FT AGL FROM NEAR KUNV TO KJST AND KAOO.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR OR LOW END VFR WILL OCCUR DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWERS OR
EVEN A FEW PERIODS OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BRUSH
ACROSS THE SW HALF TO ONE THIRD OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...LOW CIGS POSSIBLE KJST/KAOO...MAINLY AM.
FRI...SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS /MAINLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENN/ AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE STATE. LOW
CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.
SAT-SUN...BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA AS A
FEW SFC COLD FRONTS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROP SE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
401 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN TO OUT SOUTH THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS AND CROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
GENERALLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO SE /WITHIN THE
285-290K THETA CHANNEL/ WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN PLENTY OF THICK
CLOUDS AND A FEW AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SLIDING NE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE MTNS NE OF KIPT
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SFC CFRONT
/OVER LAKE ONTARIO AT 18Z/ DROPS SE LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. MEAN SFC-900 MB FLOW ACRS THE NE ZONES WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THESE FEATURES
SLIDE SE ACROSS THE ENDLESS MTNS REGION OF NCENT AND NE PENN.
THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIP THE 22-05Z PERIOD AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT SHARPENS...PRIOR TO ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING EAST FROM THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
THE MAIN IMPACT AREA FOR SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT WILL BE
CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SCENT MTNS... WHERE UP
TO AROUND ONE- TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFL IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW
SPOTS. MOST PLACES SHOULD ESCAPE WITH LESS QPF THAN THAT.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH 00Z WED TO BE FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH AT BEST NEAR AND JUST TO THE SW OF A LINE FROM
KBFD...TO KUNV AND KSEG. THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE CWA SHOULDN`T
SEE MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
LAURELS WILL RECEIVE APPROX ANOTHER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAIN...AS LLVLS MOISTEN UP WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE
40S...AND SOME BRIEF/MDT RAIN ACCOMPANIES SMALL AREAS OF 35-40 DBZ
RADAR REFL.
MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED IN THE 21Z-23Z PERIOD TODAY
AS THE CURRENT LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD DEPICTED ON REGION 88D MOSAIC
LOOP GRADUALLY DISSOLVES.
LOW TEMPS EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40F ACROSS THE FAR
NE...TO AROUND 50F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. SHOULD SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT LLVL DRYING/CLEARING PUSH
INTO OUR FAR NE ZONES...TEMPS COULD COOL OFF BY ANOTHER 3-5 DEG F
WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL PIVOT TO A NW-SE ORIENTATION
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE
SRN MID ATLANTIC...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER INTERIOR
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
LATEST 09Z SREF...12Z OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS AND HRRR MODEL BLEND
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SW 1/3 OF THE AREA FOR GREATEST RISK OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN...WILL BE CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH WITH JUST
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY DRIZZLE AND A FEW STRAY ISOLATED SHOWERS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS WED.
THE LACK OF RAINFALL IN MOST PLACES WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO BE ABOUT 8-12 DEG F MILDER THAN TODAY /TUESDAY/.
THERE WILL BE A VERY NARROW TEMP RANGE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE 3-6F BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE EAST...BUT NEAR NORMAL /LOWER TO MID 60S/ ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPTATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN PA
FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING A STRIPE OF 0.25+
INCH QPF. TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO MODERATE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS AROUND 70F BY THURSDAY.
MAX POPS ARE ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA BY 00Z SAT. FROPA TIMING WOULD FAVOR
THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF
TSTMS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THIS WEEKEND WITH SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT FCST TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
BOUNDARY GETS WITH THE GFS RETURNING RAIN TO THE AREA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DESPITE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN PATTERN...ODDS ARE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL SAT-SUN. SUNDAY LOOKS
LIKE CHILLIEST DAY THIS WEEKEND AND CANT RULE OUT FROST POTENTIAL.
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL BATTLE A WARM
FRONT...TRYING TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE INVOF
KJST. MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE
WRN MTN TAF SITES TONIGHT...AS THE MOIST /ALBEIT RATHER WEAK/
EAST TO SERLY LLVL FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 09Z SREF
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 85 PERCENT OR HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR CIGS BELOW
1000 FT AGL FROM NEAR KUNV TO KJST AND KAOO.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR OR LOW END VFR WILL OCCUR DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWERS OR
EVEN A FEW PERIODS OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BRUSH
ACROSS THE SW HALF TO ONE THIRD OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...LOW CIGS POSSIBLE KJST/KAOO...MAINLY AM.
FRI...SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS /MAINLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENN/ AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE STATE. LOW
CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.
SAT-SUN...BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA AS A
FEW SFC COLD FRONTS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROP SE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
248 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN TO OUT SOUTH THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS AND CROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GENERALLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO SE /WITHIN THE
285-290K THETA CHANNEL/ WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN PLENTY OF THICK
CLOUDS AND A FEW AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SLIDING NE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE MTNS NE OF KIPT
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SFC CFRONT
/OVER LAKE ONTARIO AT 18Z/ DROPS SE LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. MEAN SFC-900 MB FLOW ACRS THE NE ZONES WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THESE FEATURES
SLIDE SE ACROSS THE ENDLESS MTNS REGION OF NCENT AND NE PENN.
THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIP THE 22-05Z PERIOD AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT SHARPENS...PRIOR TO ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING EAST FROM THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
THE MAIN IMPACT AREA FOR SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT WILL BE
CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SCENT MTNS... WHERE UP
TO AROUND ONE- TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFL IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW
SPOTS. MOST PLACES SHOULD ESCAPE WITH LESS QPF THAN THAT.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH 00Z WED TO BE FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH AT BEST NEAR AND JUST TO THE SW OF A LINE FROM
KBFD...TO KUNV AND KSEG. THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE CWA SHOULDN`T
SEE MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
LAURELS WILL RECEIVE APPROX ANOTHER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAIN...AS LLVLS MOISTEN UP WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE
40S...AND SOME BRIEF/MDT RAIN ACCOMPANIES SMALL AREAS OF 35-40 DBZ
RADAR REFL.
MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED IN THE 21Z-23Z PERIOD TODAY
AS THE CURRENT LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD DEPICTED ON REGION 88D MOSAIC
LOOP GRADUALLY DISSOLVES.
LOW TEMPS EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40F ACROSS THE FAR
NE...TO AROUND 50F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. SHOULD SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT LLVL DRYING/CLEARING PUSH
INTO OUR FAR NE ZONES...TEMPS COULD COOL OFF BY ANOTHER 3-5 DEG F
WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL PIVOT TO A NW-SE ORIENTATION
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE
SRN MID ATLANTIC...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER INTERIOR
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
LATEST 09Z SREF...12Z OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS AND HRRR MODEL BLEND
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SW 1/3 OF THE AREA FOR GREATEST RISK OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN...WILL BE CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH WITH JUST
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY DRIZZLE AND A FEW STRAY ISOLATED SHOWERS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS WED.
THE LACK OF RAINFALL IN MOST PLACES WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO BE ABOUT 8-12 DEG F MILDER THAN TODAY /TUESDAY/.
THERE WILL BE A VERY NARROW TEMP RANGE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE 3-6F BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE EAST...BUT NEAR NORMAL /LOWER TO MID 60S/ ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALONG/WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL MENTION CHC THUNDER WEST OF RT219.
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN PA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWING A STRIPE OF 0.25+ INCH QPF. TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO
MODERATE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS AROUND 70F BY
THURSDAY.
MAX POPS ARE ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS? ALONG THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA BY 00Z SAT. FROPA TIMING WOULD
FAVOR THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF
TSTMS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS THIS WEEKEND WITH SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT FCST TO
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS BOUNDARY GETS WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON RETURNING RAIN TO
THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN
PATTERN...ODDS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL
SAT-SUN. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE CHILLIEST DAY THIS WEEKEND AND CANT
RULE OUT FROST POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL BATTLE A WARM
FRONT...TRYING TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE INVOF
KJST. MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE
WRN MTN TAF SITES TONIGHT...AS THE MOIST /ALBEIT RATHER WEAK/
EAST TO SERLY LLVL FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 09Z SREF
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 85 PERCENT OR HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR CIGS BELOW
1000 FT AGL FROM NEAR KUNV TO KJST AND KAOO.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR OR LOW END VFR WILL OCCUR DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWERS OR
EVEN A FEW PERIODS OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BRUSH
ACROSS THE SW HALF TO ONE THIRD OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...LOW CIGS POSSIBLE KJST/KAOO...MAINLY AM.
FRI...SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS /MAINLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENN/ AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE STATE. LOW
CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.
SAT-SUN...BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA AS A
FEW SFC COLD FRONTS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROP SE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
CONTINUE TO WATCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL CONVECTION ALONG IT. CELLS HAVE POPPED UP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD INTO NEB...BUT OVER OUT CWA THINGS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH...HI RES
MODELS DO SHOW SOME UPTICK OVER OUR AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...WILL JUST BE A MATTER OF HOW WIDESPREAD THINGS ARE AND HOW DEEP
ANY CONVECTION IS. HRRR SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THINGS COMPARED TO
OTHER HI RES MODELS. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BEST CAPE VALUES
FROM ABOUT HURON TO MILLER AND POINTS SOUTH. OVERALL BULK SHEAR IS
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE WITH HIGHEST VALUES WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NONETHELESS...STILL ENOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
TO BRING A THREAT FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK MOSTLY DRY BUT COULD STILL BE
DEALING WITH SOME DEPARTING PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA IN THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ND. CONDITIONS MAY FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY OVER THE WEST RIVER
COUNTIES SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR...BUT IT APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL AT
THIS POINT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS CONFINED TO NORTHWEST SD.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN. INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WESTERN CWA BASED
ON 850 MB TEMPS AND GOOD MIXING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS LOOK MOSTLY
QUIET.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
THE PERIOD OPENS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SFC LOW PRESSURE. AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
AROUND THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SATURDAY
WILL DRY CONDITIONS OUT SOMEWHAT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE AT THE FAR END
OF THE PERIOD WHEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S ON FRIDAY ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE SHOWERS/TSTORMS THOUGH FOG IS STILL
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR EAST INCLUDING AT
KATY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
600 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...TORNADO WATCH FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL 11
PM CDT TONIGHT...
AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, EXTENDING FROM KENTUCKY INTO
NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE, WILL WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN
PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/CKV/CSV...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS COMPLETELY EXITED THE MID
STATE, WITH THE HRRR ONLY SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH TEMPS
WARMING ACCORDINGLY AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60`S, CREATING SOME
MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL PICK BACK UP
TOWARD EVENING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLES THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH TS POSSIBLE AT BNA & CKV, AND PROBABLY ONLY SHRA
AT CSV DUE TO THE LATE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE THERE.
EXPECT SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 67 85 66 87 57 / 60 40 20 60 50
CLARKSVILLE 66 85 66 82 55 / 70 30 30 60 40
CROSSVILLE 64 77 63 81 58 / 40 40 30 50 60
COLUMBIA 67 86 64 85 57 / 50 30 20 50 50
LAWRENCEBURG 67 85 64 85 58 / 50 30 20 50 50
WAVERLY 66 85 65 83 55 / 60 30 20 60 40
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......19
AVIATION........13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
335 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KY AT THIS TIME.
SOME CURVATURE AND SHEAR NOTED UPSTREAM WITH PVA WORKING INTO
NORTHWESTERN TN. LATEST MOSAIC DOES DEPICT SHOWER AND TSTM
DEVELOPMENT COMMENCING ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO.
BY FAR...THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL ACTIVITY IS UP ACROSS KY WHERE THE
12Z GFS ELUDED TOWARD AN ENHANCED AREA OF LIFT AND DEEPER MRH
LEVELS.
FOR MIDDLE TN...INSTABILITIES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG WITH
VERTICAL LIFT...PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN TN INTO THIS EVENING.
STORM TRAJECTORY SHOULD BE ENE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS MOVING
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR CWA.
MODELS DO INDICATED SOME TRAINING OF THE TSTM CELLS OVERNIGHT AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS THE
NORTH...MAINLY WEST OF OUR PLATEAU. SPEED SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT
GREAT WITH 30-35 KTS AT 850MB. LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED STRONG TO
BORDERLINE SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-40. FORCING WILL
BACK OFF A BIT AFTER 06Z SO WILL GO FROM LIKELY POPS PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MOVING FORWARD...WED AND WED NT...THE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND OUR UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH PERHAPS A FEW
KINKS WITHIN THAT FLOW. OTW...NO REAL FORCING MECHANISM SO WILL
KEEP POPS AT AROUND 30 PERCENT OR SO.
FROPA STILL EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
EVENT DOES NOT LOOK SEVERE AT THIS TIME. FORCING IS SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED AND SPEED SHEAR IS ON THE LOW SIDE. STILL
THOUGH...ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG ACTIVITY.
IN THE EXT FCST...LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SEND A
SERIES OF COOLER SFC HIGHS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA. TEMPS WILL
RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. A WARMING
TREND WILL THEN BE IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT OUR WAY AND WE WILL SEE
SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/CKV/CSV...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS COMPLETELY EXITED THE MID
STATE, WITH THE HRRR ONLY SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH TEMPS
WARMING ACCORDINGLY AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60`S, CREATING SOME
MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL PICK BACK UP
TOWARD EVENING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLES THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH TS POSSIBLE AT BNA & CKV, AND PROBABLY ONLY SHRA
AT CSV DUE TO THE LATE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE THERE.
EXPECT SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 67 85 66 87 57 / 60 40 20 60 50
CLARKSVILLE 66 85 66 82 55 / 70 30 30 60 40
CROSSVILLE 64 77 63 81 58 / 40 40 30 50 60
COLUMBIA 67 86 64 85 57 / 50 30 20 50 50
LAWRENCEBURG 67 85 64 85 58 / 50 30 20 50 50
WAVERLY 66 85 65 83 55 / 60 30 20 60 40
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1210 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE
DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH MISSOURI INTO ARKANSAS WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI DOWN ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS AHEAD OF THIS MAIN
LINE ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. GENERAL
MOVEMENT HAS BEEN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM IOWA DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. SHORT RANGE MODELS WEAKEN ACTIVITY WAS IT WORKS TOWARD
MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THINK CONVECTION DURING
THE DAY TODAY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED WITH NOTHING REALLY TO FOCUS
IT ON WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THE NORTH CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE.
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG. STRONGER AND DEEPER
OMEGA TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE WORKS ACROSS OUR AREA SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS. A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
RAMP UP THURSDAY WITH SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. MID STATE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON FRIDAY AND DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY SO BASICALLY KEPT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY EXCEPT FRIDAY
MORNING ALONG THE PLATEAU WHERE THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY TURN ZONAL WITH WEST TO
EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS TENNESSEE KEEPING AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD OF WEATHER LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. I CAN SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW THAT WILL WORK ACROSS OUR AREA SO KEPT POPS IN FORECAST
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR CHANGE IN TEMPS
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/CKV/CSV...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS COMPLETELY EXITED THE MID
STATE, WITH THE HRRR ONLY SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH TEMPS
WARMING ACCORDINGLY AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60`S, CREATING SOME
MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL PICK BACK UP
TOWARD EVENING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLES THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH TS POSSIBLE AT BNA & CKV, AND PROBABLY ONLY SHRA
AT CSV DUE TO THE LATE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE THERE.
EXPECT SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
549 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE
DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH MISSOURI INTO ARKANSAS WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI DOWN ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS AHEAD OF THIS MAIN
LINE ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. GENERAL
MOVEMENT HAS BEEN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM IOWA DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. SHORT RANGE MODELS WEAKEN ACTIVITY WAS IT WORKS TOWARD
MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THINK CONVECTION DURING
THE DAY TODAY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED WITH NOTHING REALLY TO FOCUS
IT ON WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THE NORTH CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE.
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG. STRONGER AND DEEPER
OMEGA TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE WORKS ACROSS OUR AREA SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS. A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
RAMP UP THURSDAY WITH SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. MID STATE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON FRIDAY AND DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY SO BASICALLY KEPT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY EXCEPT FRIDAY
MORNING ALONG THE PLATEAU WHERE THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY TURN ZONAL WITH WEST TO
EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS TENNESSEE KEEPING AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD OF WEATHER LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. I CAN SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW THAT WILL WORK ACROSS OUR AREA SO KEPT POPS IN FORECAST
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR CHANGE IN TEMPS
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AIRPORTS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE...THEN DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT
CKV/BNA PER HRRR MODEL ALTHOUGH VCSH AT CSV. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AT AIRPORTS ALTHOUGH
VERY UNCERTAIN ON COVERAGE AND TIMING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 20
KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......01/BOYD
AVIATION........55/SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
EVE...BEGINNING NEAR THE COAST AND SPREADING INLAND OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA THU AFT ACROSS INLAND TAF SITES.
HELD OFF ON A VCTS AS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE WHEN AND WHERE. 33
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 85 69 85 67 / 20 30 30 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 71 87 70 87 68 / 10 20 30 30 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 83 73 83 73 / 10 20 20 30 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...33
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
423 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.Updated long term portion of discussion...
&&
.Short Term (Tonight through Thursday night)...
An upper shortwave trough over Utah and Colorado is moving southeast
this afternoon into Arizona and New Mexico. South of the trough a
speed max in the subtropical jet is moving across central Arizona
and New Mexico. This morning`s upper air observations and GFS/NAM
700mb projections show an increase in mid and lower level moisture
ahead of this trough and a few showers appear to be sparking over
northern New Mexico and southeast Colorado.
Surface ridging will increase in western Kansas through the rest of
the afternoon and tonight which will send a weak front through the
area. This "front" will largely just be an increase in north to
northeasterly winds with very little change in airmass. Above the
weak frontal slope, some elevated instability will be present
associated with the increased moisture around 700mb and showers and
storms that get started over New Mexico stand a good chance of
persisting as they move into the region tonight. The best large scale
lift and mid to lower level convergence and moisture looks to be over
the northern half of the region, closer to the Oklahoma Panhandle and
continued the highest rain chances there. Steepening mid level lapse
rates amid favorable shear profiles present a marginal risk for hail
in thunderstorms. NAM MUCAPE projections are running between about
1,500 and 2,000 j/kg, however these may be a bit on the high side,
and with only marginal convergence in the elevated unstable layer
believe ramping up severe weather wording in the HWO and other
products is unnecessary for now. The highest chances for small to
possibly marginally severe hail would be in the northern half of the
forecast area.
The upper trough axis passes by Thursday morning with broad surface
ridging shifting southeast into Oklahoma. Winds should shift to the
east with speeds falling into the 8 to 10 mph range through most of
the day Thursday with skies clearing up and temperatures rising into
the mid 70s. Light winds slowly shift to the south Thursday night
amid clear skies with lows dropping into the upper 40s north, and
lower 50s south.
JGG/BRB
&&
.Long Term...Friday through Wednesday
Upper level ridge builds across the southwest on Friday. As
northwesterly flow develops, thunderstorm chances return to the
Panhandles Friday night. As shortwave energy deamplifies the ridge Friday
night, thunderstorm chances return to the Panhandles. A few factors
could come into play including a cold front moving southward through
the Plains during the day. Dewpoints will begin climbing into the mid
50s, possibly upper 50s across the far southeastern Panhandle as
moisture flows into Texas off of the Gulf. As a result, PWAT values
begin increasing above an inch, and closer to 1.25 inches as well so
have upped wording to moderate rain and went with higher than usual
QPF values for Friday night`s weather. SBCAPE values around 500 to
1000 J/kg and bulk shear values around 30kts will support
thunderstorms providing the timing all works out with lift via the
shortwave and/or the front.
Overall precip chances will continue through the weekend and into the
first part of the workweek, but get a little muddy beyond the
initial wave Friday night. Heights fall as the ridge continues to
deamplify and various shortwaves cross the area. The cold front looks
to remain across the region as well. Possibility for moderate or
heavy rain with showers/thunderstorms will start tapering off
Sunday and Monday as the front pushes further south and suppresses
moisture convergence more toward the western Panhandles. Look for
further refinement in the timing of more likely pops closer to the
weekend.
Beyond Monday, upper level flow shifts southwesterly as a trough
works its way through the Intermountain West. Have kept some slight
chance pops for now, but precip chances may come to an end Monday and
Tuesday before another upper level low could move into the Four
Corners region. Models have not come into any sort of agreement on
this feature as of yet.
Elsenheimer
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX 49 73 49 82 53 / 40 10 0 10 30
Beaver OK 47 77 51 84 49 / 40 5 0 10 20
Boise City OK 44 71 46 81 47 / 50 5 0 5 20
Borger TX 52 75 53 84 52 / 40 10 5 10 30
Boys Ranch TX 49 75 50 85 53 / 40 10 0 5 20
Canyon TX 49 73 48 83 55 / 40 20 0 10 30
Clarendon TX 53 74 51 82 54 / 50 30 5 10 40
Dalhart TX 46 72 47 82 49 / 40 10 0 5 20
Guymon OK 47 74 50 83 49 / 50 5 0 10 20
Hereford TX 50 73 49 84 56 / 40 10 5 10 30
Lipscomb TX 51 77 52 83 51 / 30 10 0 10 30
Pampa TX 50 74 52 81 50 / 40 10 5 10 40
Shamrock TX 54 77 52 82 54 / 50 30 5 10 40
Wellington TX 56 78 52 83 56 / 50 30 5 10 40
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
17/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
353 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...
It looks like another warm and humid day for SE Texas. Visible
satellite imagery shows low stratocumulus clouds streaming
northward. Latest obs at 20z show temperatures in the mid 80s with
gusty southerly winds. Dewpoint temperatures have mixed a little
to the upper 60s to low 70s but that still combines with the
temperature for heat index values in the low 90s. Water vapor
satellite imagery shows one short wave trough departing the area
with another over the southern Rockies which should push into
Texas tomorrow allowing for W/NW flow aloft.
Latest surface analysis at 20z has a frontal boundary pushing into
NW Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle. This front will slowly push
into Texas tomorrow and Friday. The main issues being convection
forming along the front which could push into areas of E Texas.
Possible that a few strong storms could develop ahead of the front
and reach areas from Madisonville to Lufkin. The models are in
decent agreement with the front pushing towards Houston and
stalling basically along I-10 on Friday. This is one change from
yesterday`s forecast where the models had been stronger with the
front. Chances are that where the front stalls will change over
the next day or two, and may depend upon how much convective cold
pools affect the frontal push. The forecast will maintain 30
percent chances of thunderstorms, keeping an eye on an isolated
strong storm.
With the front now dissipating more quickly on Saturday, the warm
sector airmass looks to recover over SE Texas with surface
dewpoints back in the upper 60s to low 70s. Warm air advection may
support a few showers but confidence is low enough not to put 20
percent chances in the forecast. Upper level support looks rather
weak as there will be some weak ridging aloft. The ridging is
short lived as another short wave trough and jet streak move
towards Texas Sunday into Monday.
While the GFS and ECMWF both support thunderstorm chances Sunday
night into Monday, their timing, location and evolution are
different from each other with little run to run consistency.
There was some concern over possible heavy rainfall during this
time but there is very little signal in either model. And then
there is the Canadian model which, for a second model run, drops
several inches of rain across the area. That said, it is stronger
and more farther south with the short wave trough than the
GFS/ECMWF. GFS does not forecast much in the way of precipitable
water but values around 1.8 inches cannot be ignored. There still
should be good inflow with 20-30kts of 850mb flow from the Gulf of
Mexico and Corfidi Vectors are around 15-20kts from the NW. The
environment is favorable for heavy rainfall but there seems to be
a lack of surface forcing since the warm front will be north along
the Red River. Still this will be something to monitor. For now
the forecast will keep 40 percent rain chances given the lack of
confidence and models in very little agreement.
In the far extended forecast, the ECMWF pushes a cold front into
the area next Wednesday. GFS has no indication of a front but warm
air advection. Forecast will keep mention of some rain chances as
both patterns will support the possibility of rain. Again
confidence still rather low given the model differences.
Overpeck
&&
.MARINE...
The generally light/moderate onshore winds will persist tonight and
are then expected to decrease further tomorrow as the gradient weak-
ens out ahead of a weak cold front moving into north TX. Models are
still indicating a wind shift over the coastal waters early Fri but
will be light/short-lived. Surface high pressure building down from
the southern Plains should produce light/variable winds by Fri eve.
As the high moves off to the east...onshore winds will be returning
to the area late Sat aftn. Winds are then progged to strengthen Sun
night as the next upper level storm system begins to develop/deepen
over the central Plains and tightens the gradient over the state. A
Small Craft Caution/Advisory flags are possible beginning Sun night
on into Tues/Weds conceivably.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 85 69 85 67 / 20 30 30 30 10
Houston (IAH) 71 87 70 87 68 / 10 20 30 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 74 83 73 83 73 / 10 20 20 30 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...39
Aviation/Marine...41
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
347 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...
At 2:30 PM, Satellite imagery showed an increasingly agitated
cumulus field within a convergent zone along a stalling frontal
boundary and weak dryline from near Post eastward through Stonewall
County. Temperatures near 90F and dewpoints in the mid 50s
underneath moderate mid-level lapse rates are yielding MLCAPE values
around 2000 J/KG in this area per SPC/RAP analysis. Water vapor
imagery shows an upper-level disturbance passing through the
Southern Rockies. Large-scale ascent associated with this wave will
likely begin to spread over West Texas late this afternoon and
evening. although deep-layer wind shear is likely to remain on the
modest side through evening. As a result, isolated to scattered t-
storm development is expected during the next several hours. These
storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging outflow
wind gusts. The storms will generally move to the east, but
increasingly easterly component to the low-level flow may allow for
some redevelopment back to the west through the evening. Tonight,
thunderstorm activity originating in northeast New Mexico is
expected to track through much of the Panhandles. After midnight, a
cold front, possibly enhanced by t-storm outflow, will move south
through our forecast area. T-storm activity may spread southward
into portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains in conjunction
with this front, although confidence in the details remains low as
short-term guidance shows a wide variety of solutions. The best
chances appear to focus on the Rolling Plains where the deeper
moisture will reside. Some severe weather will also be possible in
that area overnight although the threat should be more isolated. Low
clouds and possibly some areas of drizzle will also accompany the
front, with skies gradually clearing out from the north to south
during the day. Some showers may linger across our southern Counties
through about mid-day but cool temperatures will keep any activity
on the weak side and spotty. Thursday`s highs should only reach the
lower to middle 70s for most locations. The northeasterly winds will
be breezy through early morning, and then diminish while shifting to
the east in the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...
12Z guidance is still on track favoring unsettled conditions this
weekend in the vicinity of a decaying upper ridge. One change worth
noting is that the ECMWF and CMC have fallen in line with the GFS in
depicting a more progressive and flatter trough upstream of said
ridge by Sunday night, so this would likely restore drier westerlies
much sooner than originally forecast.
Thursday evening begins with stable surface ridging wedging farther
south toward the I-20 corridor. This feature will depart east
through Friday morning ahead of increasingly moist southerlies,
although isentropic ascent appears very weak and not supportive of
elevated convection. This moisture should support deep convection
beginning Friday night or early Saturday in our northeast zones as a
cold front edges south under weak northwest flow. GFS remains the
most bullish with an MCS signal straddling the baroclinic zone
Friday night, however the progged low level jet is not particularly
impressive which raises some concern for MCS development. Depending
on early morning convection and any aggressive cold pools, the
baroclinic zone could be shoved south of the CWA by Saturday
afternoon similar to the CMC`s depiction. Such a scenario in not
that uncommon here, but until we see enough evidence for this we
continue to favor the front residing in the area all day Saturday.
Highest POPs remain in stock for Saturday night under continued weak
northwest flow with another modest low level jet unfolding. If late
day convection can develop upstream in the upslope regime of eastern
NM, then prospects for a nocturnal MCS and a broader coverage of
precip over the South Plains would be improved.
With the front stalling out south and west of the region on Sunday,
unseasonably cool conditions seem more likely as moist upslope winds
prolong stratus and keep high temperatures a good 15-20 degrees
below normal. Continued flattening of the shallow upper ridge as it
shifts over the region will open the door to more impulses preceding
a trough in the Great Basin, so broad POPs remain in order. This
trough is now progged to shift east more aggressively beginning
Sunday night ahead of deepening and drying southwest flow, so precip
chances were dried out accordingly on Monday and Tuesday while also
raising high temps by several degrees.
&&
.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
33/93
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
233 PM MDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front will arrive early Thursday resulting in
easterly winds and a gradual increase in low level moisture. While
Thursday will remain dry, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
try to develop both Friday and Saturday. By Sunday an approaching
upper level system will bring increasing westerly winds for the
start of the new week along with a return to dry conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Deep westerly flow continues this afternoon and evening across the
area. Meanwhile, as a closed upper low over the northern plains
moves east, it will drag a shortwave trough across the Rockies
and central plains while sending a decaying back door cold front
through the Borderland early Thursday. Only minimal cooling is
expected with this front. However easterly winds will pick up
through the afternoon and slowly veer southeasterly overnight and
into Friday. This will bring about a gradual increase in low level
moisture with dew points climbing to near or a little above 50 F
by Friday.
Model soundings are indicating that the low level moisture will
be rather shallow ranging from only about 1000 feet deep near the
divide to around 4000 feet in depth east of the Rio Grande. As a
result models tend to mix out the moisture from west to east both
Friday and Saturday during the afternoon hours which seems to
indicate that the best chance for thunderstorm development will
favor eastern zones. While the models continue to indicate a fair
amount of conditional instability with CAPE values of 1000 to
1500 j/kg and steep lapse rates above the LCL, storms will still
have trouble developing due to the lack of a good trigger. An
upper ridge overhead will tend to suppress storm development both
Friday and Saturday. However models do hint at possibly a weak
disturbance traversing the ridge Friday afternoon and evening. As
such pops were given a bit of a boost for late in the day Friday
across the eastern zones. If storms do manage to develop they
could produce small hail and very strong winds as web bulb zero
heights will be between 8 and 9 thousand feet along with DCAPE
values approaching 1500 j/kg.
Beginning Sunday the moisture will begin to retreat to the east
for good as a large scale trough develops across the western US
and deep westerly flow resumes across the region. At this time it
appears that there will be several shortwave disturbances rounding
the base of the trough through the extended period. However their
impact on the Borderland will primarily be wind as windy
conditions are expected to develop across western zones Sunday
afternoon and expand across the entire area on Monday. Breezy to
windy conditions will also be possible for next Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoon as well.
&&
.AVIATION...12/00Z-13/00Z.
P6SM FEW-SCT250. Winds will be starting out west AOB 12KTS
and shift around to the N to NE by 12Z and increase to 10-20G30KTS
at KDMN and KTCS, around 5-15KTS elsewhere. After 18Z...winds will turn
more ELY to SLY AOB 12KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and warm conditions will continue through Thursday, although a
back door cold front will move in overnight and drop temperatures slightly
for Thursday in the east. Moisture will also be on the increase, especially
Thursday night into Friday when showers and thunderstorms will become
possible. Thunderstorm chances will continue into Saturday, but mainly
in the mountains and far east. Windy and dry conditions will return for
early next week with critical conditions becoming possible once
again.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 62 87 63 89 / 0 0 0 20
Sierra Blanca 59 81 59 86 / 0 0 0 30
Las Cruces 56 88 57 89 / 0 0 0 20
Alamogordo 56 89 56 89 / 0 0 0 30
Cloudcroft 44 69 48 67 / 0 0 0 30
Truth or Consequences 56 88 57 88 / 0 0 0 10
Silver City 50 83 53 83 / 0 0 0 10
Deming 54 90 57 89 / 0 0 0 10
Lordsburg 54 90 57 90 / 0 0 0 10
West El Paso Metro 61 87 63 89 / 0 0 0 20
Dell City 54 76 52 89 / 0 0 0 30
Fort Hancock 59 88 60 91 / 0 0 0 30
Loma Linda 59 79 58 85 / 0 0 0 20
Fabens 59 86 60 91 / 0 0 0 20
Santa Teresa 58 87 60 89 / 0 0 0 20
White Sands HQ 61 88 61 89 / 0 0 0 20
Jornada Range 54 90 55 89 / 0 0 0 20
Hatch 54 93 55 91 / 0 0 0 10
Columbus 56 91 60 91 / 0 0 0 10
Orogrande 58 87 59 89 / 0 0 0 20
Mayhill 45 68 48 77 / 0 10 0 30
Mescalero 45 79 48 77 / 0 0 0 30
Timberon 44 75 45 74 / 0 0 0 30
Winston 43 81 46 82 / 0 0 0 20
Hillsboro 52 85 53 86 / 0 0 0 10
Spaceport 54 90 55 88 / 0 0 0 20
Lake Roberts 41 83 44 83 / 0 0 0 10
Hurley 48 84 51 84 / 0 0 0 10
Cliff 46 87 48 88 / 0 0 0 10
Mule Creek 44 86 46 87 / 0 0 0 10
Faywood 50 86 51 86 / 0 0 0 10
Animas 56 90 58 91 / 0 0 0 10
Hachita 55 91 58 91 / 0 0 0 10
Antelope Wells 55 89 58 90 / 0 0 0 10
Cloverdale 54 86 56 87 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
Laney/Grzywacz
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
323 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
The outflow boundary that earlier pushed and produced strong to
severe thunderstorm activity is located across the Coastal Plains.
However, latest visible photos show the northern extend of the
line pushing back to the north with the aid of the sea-breeze.
Dewpoint temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s mainly
east of Interstate 35 with area forecast CAPE values in the 2000
to 2500 J/KG range. The cap is holding steady, however, there may
be a break from 3 PM to early evening, where the cap is expected
to erode. In that case, any storm that does form could become
strong. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy tonight with
slight to low end chances for showers and thunderstorms late
overnight across the Hill Country as a cluster of storms push from
Central Texas into our area. Some of these storms could be strong
to severe as they move to the south and southwest Thursday. The
main weather threat would be large hail and wind gusts.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
The outflow resulting from the cluster of storms will linger
around the area through Friday for isolated showers and
thunderstorms mainly across the northeast counties. Upper level
ridging is expected to develop late Friday into Saturday for
limited shower and thunderstorm activity during the period.
An upper level trough out of the Pacific Northwest is forecast to
push into the Southern Plains early next week and help with the
generation of scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of
the area Sunday through Tuesday of next week. A dry-line is
expected to shift back and forth across the area during that time
and aid storms to develop on the moist and warmer sector.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 70 86 68 86 67 / 20 20 30 30 10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 86 67 86 65 / 20 20 30 30 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 87 68 88 66 / 10 20 30 20 10
Burnet Muni Airport 68 83 66 84 66 / 30 30 30 30 -
Del Rio Intl Airport 72 91 70 90 70 / 10 20 40 10 -
Georgetown Muni Airport 69 84 66 85 66 / 30 30 30 30 10
Hondo Muni Airport 71 89 67 89 66 / 10 20 20 20 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 69 86 68 86 65 / 20 20 30 20 10
La Grange - Fayette Regional 71 86 68 86 67 / 10 20 30 30 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 71 87 69 88 67 / 10 20 20 20 -
Stinson Muni Airport 71 89 69 89 68 / 10 20 20 20 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Mesoscale/Aviation...Allen
Synoptic/Grids...17
Public Service/Data Collection...33
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
316 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A cold front was just entering into the extreme northwest zones at
mid afternoon with the dryline extending from the cold front
across the South Plains and Permian Basin. These features show up
quite well in the afternoon visible satellite image. The cold
front had nearly stalled due to vigorous mixing along the leading
edge but should resume a southeastward movement later this evening
and overnight. The atmosphere continues to recover from overnight
convection and instability is on the increase. The latest analysis
shows that a cap still exists across North and Central Texas but
this should continue to weaken through late afternoon/early
evening. We expect storms to develop along the dryline and cold
front by late afternoon. These storms will move east through the
evening and should affect locations generally north of the
Interstate 20 corridor. Large hail and damaging winds will
accompany the stronger storms. As the storms move east off of the
cold front this evening they should weaken a bit once they move
into slightly less unstable air.
Once the cold front begins to accelerate southeast late this
evening/overnight it will provide additional focus for
thunderstorm development with the possibility of some severe
storms.
The front will move through much of the region on Thursday and
should stall somewhere over Central Texas. As a result...thunderstorm
chances will decrease from north to south through the day
Thursday. However...scattered showers and storms will remain in
the forecast across the southern zones Thursday night due to the
proximity of the cold front.
Friday and Friday night will be rain-free due to limited moisture
and subsidence aloft. There is a low chance that a nocturnal MCS
could develop across the High Plains Friday night and impact the
western zones Saturday morning.
The remainder of the weekend through early next week will remain
unsettled due to progressive westerly flow aloft. This upper flow
coupled with abundant low level moisture will yield multiple
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday of
next week.
79
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1220 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/
/18Z TAFs/
VFR through the afternoon with few to scattered cu and increasing
high clouds. A south wind will continue in the 12 to 17 knot range
along with a few higher gusts.
We anticipate that thunderstorms will develop northwest of the
metroplex TAF sites late this afternoon along an approaching cold
front. Storms may be a bit slower to develop than most of the
models suggest since low level moisture was temporarily scoured out
by evening/overnight convection. The most likely time for impact at
the metroplex terminals will be late this evening generally between
about 04Z and 07Z when storms move off of the cold front. There
should be a lull in activity overnight until the cold front moves
through toward sunrise Thursday. The best window of time for storms
with the front will be between 11Z and 15Z at the metro terminals
and Waco between 15Z and 18Z. The passage of the cold front will
also turn the wind to the north at speeds between 6 and 12 knots.
MVFR ceilings should return late this evening/overnight at all North
and Central Texas TAF sites and prevail through the morning hours
Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 79 64 84 65 / 70 50 10 10 5
Waco 69 82 64 84 65 / 40 50 20 10 5
Paris 67 78 60 80 61 / 60 50 10 10 0
Denton 66 77 60 82 62 / 70 40 10 10 5
McKinney 67 79 61 81 62 / 70 40 10 10 5
Dallas 69 80 65 84 65 / 70 50 10 10 0
Terrell 69 81 63 82 63 / 60 50 10 10 0
Corsicana 68 81 65 84 65 / 40 50 20 10 5
Temple 68 82 66 84 65 / 30 40 30 10 5
Mineral Wells 66 78 61 83 63 / 70 40 10 10 5
&&
.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
79/79
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
316 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A cold front was just entering into the extreme northwest zones at
mid afternoon with the dryline extending from the cold front
across the South Plains and Permian Basin. These features show up
quite well in the afternoon visible satellite image. The cold
front had nearly stalled due to vigorous mixing along the leading
edge but should resume a southeastward movement later this evening
and overnight. The atmosphere continues to recover from overnight
convection and instability is on the increase. The latest analysis
shows that a cap still exists across North and Central Texas but
this should continue to weaken through late afternoon/early
evening. We expect storms to develop along the dryline and cold
front by late afternoon. These storms will move east through the
evening and should affect locations generally north of the
Interstate 20 corridor. Large hail and damaging winds will
accompany the stronger storms. As the storms move east off of the
cold front this evening they should weaken a bit once they move
into slightly less unstable air.
Once the cold front begins to accelerate southeast late this
evening/overnight it will provide additional focus for
thunderstorm development with the possibility of some severe
storms.
The front will move through much of the region on Thursday and
should stall somewhere over Central Texas. As a result...thunderstorm
chances will decrease from north to south through the day
Thursday. However...scattered showers and storms will remain in
the forecast across the southern zones Thursday night due to the
proximity of the cold front.
Friday and Friday night will be rain-free due to limited moisture
and subsidence aloft. There is a low chance that a nocturnal MCS
could develop across the High Plains Friday night and impact the
western zones Saturday morning.
The remainder of the weekend through early next week will remain
unsettled due to progressive westerly flow aloft. This upper flow
coupled with abundant low level moisture will yield multiple
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday of
next week.
79
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1220 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/
/18Z TAFs/
VFR through the afternoon with few to scattered cu and increasing
high clouds. A south wind will continue in the 12 to 17 knot range
along with a few higher gusts.
We anticipate that thunderstorms will develop northwest of the
metroplex TAF sites late this afternoon along an approaching cold
front. Storms may be a bit slower to develop than most of the
models suggest since low level moisture was temporarily scoured out
by evening/overnight convection. The most likely time for impact at
the metroplex terminals will be late this evening generally between
about 04Z and 07Z when storms move off of the cold front. There
should be a lull in activity overnight until the cold front moves
through toward sunrise Thursday. The best window of time for storms
with the front will be between 11Z and 15Z at the metro terminals
and Waco between 15Z and 18Z. The passage of the cold front will
also turn the wind to the north at speeds between 6 and 12 knots.
MVFR ceilings should return late this evening/overnight at all North
and Central Texas TAF sites and prevail through the morning hours
Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 79 64 84 65 / 70 50 10 10 5
Waco 69 82 64 84 65 / 40 50 20 10 5
Paris 67 78 60 80 61 / 60 50 10 10 0
Denton 66 77 60 82 62 / 70 40 10 10 5
McKinney 67 79 61 81 62 / 70 40 10 10 5
Dallas 69 80 65 84 65 / 70 50 10 10 0
Terrell 69 81 63 82 63 / 60 50 10 10 0
Corsicana 68 81 65 84 65 / 40 50 20 10 5
Temple 68 82 66 84 65 / 30 40 30 10 5
Mineral Wells 66 78 61 83 63 / 70 40 10 10 5
&&
.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
79/79
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
313 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)
Weak front has sagged into the northern Big Country this afternoon,
with visible satellite showing the boundary draped across Haskell
and Throckmorton Counties. Much drier behind the boundary, but ahead
of the boundary low level instability is increasing with CAPE values
above 3000 j/kg. Having said that, there has been healthy inhibition
in place as well so far today. Not a lot upper support, so will
depend on additional heating and convergence along the front to
initiate convection. Will likely see the first storms develop later
this afternoon across the Big Country near the frontal boundary, and
perhaps farther south along an outflow boundary from last nights
convection that looks to be laying north of Coleman and Brownwood.
As inhibition continues to weaken, storms will begin to increase in
coverage.
Front is expected to stall, perhaps even push back north for a
little while, and then start to move back south by around midnight.
Models show more widespread convection developing along the front at
this point and pushing south. Highest POP`s will be across the Big
Country overnight and then pushing south across the remainder of
West Central Texas late tonight and into the day on Thursday. Chance
POPS area wide on Thursday. Increased cloud cover and cooler air
mass will lead to afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s.
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night and Wednesday)
Rain chances will continue across much of West Central Texas through
the extended forecast. A cold front that will move through much of
the area Thursday, then stall somewhere across our southern
counties Thursday night, aiding in continued shower and
thunderstorm development. Exactly where this front stalls will
dictate where the best PoPs will reside. At this point, the best
PoPs look to be across our southern counties, with rain chances
decreasing as you head north toward the Big Country. A few
lingering storms will be possible Friday, especially across the
Interstate 10 corridor. Highs on Friday will be near to slightly
below seasonal normals, in the low to mid 80s.
The next cold front will approach the northern Big Country Saturday
morning, with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Some timing differences continue with this feature, but this front
is forecast to slowly move through the area Saturday into Saturday
night. This in combination with intermittent disturbances moving
across the region in the southwest flow aloft, will bring a chance
of showers and thunderstorms to much of the forecast area. Highs on
Saturday will be mostly in the mid to upper 80s, while highs on
Sunday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
At least scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible for
the first part of next week, as the region remains in southwest flow
aloft. High will mainly be in the 80s with overnight lows mainly in
the 60s.
Daniels
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 64 75 60 82 / 70 40 20 10
San Angelo 67 80 63 85 / 40 50 30 20
Junction 71 83 64 85 / 30 40 40 20
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
07/Daniels
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
305 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.Short Term (Tonight through Thursday Night)...Cloud cover over
the Brush Country has limited heating and convective inhibition
remains strong over this region. Any convection is expected to be
over the higher terrain in northeast Mexico. Southeast winds will
push the low level moisture axis northwest of the area tonight
with drier air over the northwest Gulf of Mexico moving inland.
Stratus will develop over inland coastal plains this evening and
spread across the region overnight. Clouds will linger through
much of the morning. Moisture/instability axis will be close to
the extreme western portion of Webb County late Thursday afternoon
and evening for a slight chance of convection. Short wave trough
moving through the southern plains Thursday and into the southern
Mississippi River valley will send a weak frontal boundary into
central Texas Thursday afternoon. Convection along this boundary
is expected to diminish before reaching South Texas as negative
low level theta-e advection prevails over the region. Will keep
a dry forecast for Thursday night.
Adequately large swells with long periods along with moderate
southeast winds will keep a high risk of rip currents for the
Gulf facing beaches through this evening.
&&
.Long Term (Friday through Wednesday)...Active weather pattern
continues through much of the extended period with persistent
onshore flow maintaining high moisture values and a series of upper
level disturbances act on that moisture to produce mostly isolated
convection.
Models suggest a weak boundary near the Coastal Bend on
Friday...producing isolated to scattered thunderstorms. After that
current indications are for a lull in thunderstorm chances Friday
night and Saturday before the next impulse in the series reaches the
western brush country Saturday night and the rest of the Coastal Bend
Sunday and Sunday night. Rain chances taper off to just isolated
activity over the northeast before another shortwave brings more rain
chances through the middle of next week.
Temperatures will remain slightly above normal for mid-May,
especially overnight lows as clouds and high dewpoints will keep
temperatures up.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Corpus Christi 74 88 72 88 72 / 10 10 10 20 10
Victoria 71 88 70 86 68 / 10 10 10 30 10
Laredo 75 97 73 94 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
Alice 74 91 70 91 69 / 10 10 10 20 10
Rockport 76 86 73 87 73 / 10 10 10 20 10
Cotulla 72 96 70 91 70 / 10 10 10 20 10
Kingsville 75 90 72 90 70 / 10 10 10 20 10
Navy Corpus 76 86 73 85 73 / 10 10 10 20 10
&&
.CRP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight For the
following zones: Aransas...Calhoun...Kleberg...Nueces.
GM...None.
&&
$$
TMT/89...Short Term
JV/71...Long Term
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
249 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...Warm and humid
conditions to persist over the next 36 hours. Temps have been a
little slower to heat up this afternoon, especially from McAllen
westward, than expected, due to more prevalent cloud cover.
Satellite trends indicate more sun is on the way shortly, so still
expect a few more degrees of heating from the current 91 at MFE.
Low clouds will return this evening as SE flow persists and a low-
level subsidence inversion forms. Winds should stay up enough to
preclude any issues with fog.
A cold front currently draped across N. Texas/S. New Mexico will
move into Central TX on Thursday before stalling out north of the
CWA. Models have been consistent in stalling progress of this front.
However, it will cause surface winds to back to easterly by tomorrow
afternoon. Smoke/haze has not turned out to be much of an issue
today and this wind shift should keep it from coming back in the
short-term.
Meanwhile, winds aloft will become more WNW by later on Thursday
ahead of a ridge building into the Desert SW. General subsidence
will mean really no upper-level support for any precip, despite the
proximity of the frontal boundary. Model consensus keeps all
mentionable precip north of the area. Could see a stray shower over
the northwestern counties Thursday night but confidence just not
enough to go above silent PoPs.
.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...Mid level high pressure ridge
will be set up across northern Mexico northwestward to the Pacific
Northwest. Northwest flow aloft will be over deep south Texas to
start the long term period. the ridge will flatten out and move to
the east Sunday-Monday as a weakening shortwave trough enters the
Pacific Northwest. Mid level flow will turn westerly Monday and
southwesterly beginning Tuesday.
Am not overly impressed with rain chances during this period. There
will be plenty of dry mid level air across our area. There is not
much mid level support for any rain development. The exception is
Sunday into Monday morning when a weak embedded shortwave trough
in the westerly flow may push convection off the higher terrain of
Mexico into our western sections of the CWA. Most of the other mid
level support and surface convergence will be well north of the
area. Otherwise will keep the forecast dry.
It will be warm to hot across the CWA this period. Highs will be
around 100 degrees each day across our western section to around 90
at the coast. Low temperatures will be in the 70s.
&&
.MARINE...Tonight through Thursday night...Latest observation
from Buoy 020 indicating SE winds at 16 knots with seas near 6 ft.
Exercise caution conditions likely to continue through the evening
before seas begin to subside. Pressure gradient weakens on
Thursday and turns winds to the east with only moderate winds
before becoming light on Thursday night. Seas gradually subside in
turn to about 4 ft. on Thursday and 3 ft. later Thursday night.
Friday through Sunday...Favorable marine conditions are expected
this period as high pressure will be anchored across the Gulf of
Mexico. Onshore southeasterly flow will be in the light to
moderate levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 75 87 74 87 / 10 0 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 75 89 72 89 / 10 0 10 10
HARLINGEN 75 92 71 91 / 10 10 10 10
MCALLEN 76 96 73 92 / 10 10 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 99 73 96 / 0 10 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 82 75 83 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
Short term...53
Long term...55
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
238 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...
An upper level trough is over the Northern Plains with westerly flow
over the area. Temperatures today are expected to be about 10
degrees above normal. A dryline is across the far eastern CWA and
may aid in some thunderstorm development across this area later in
the afternoon. The dryline will retreat westward after sunset, and
thunderstorm chances will increase this evening and overnight as
upper lift and low level moisture increase. Some of these storms
may become severe due to CAPE values over 2,000 J/kg and 30 to 40 kt
0 to 6 km bulk shear being present. As the upper trough continues to
move eastward overnight, a cold front will begin pushing into the
area early Thursday morning providing even more lift.
Temperatures will be about 10 degrees below normal tomorrow behind
the cold front and the best storm chances during the afternoon will
be along and south of the Lower Trans Pecos. High winds may briefly
occur through Guadalupe Pass Thursday morning as the front moves
through but do not anticipate the high winds to last long enough to
warrant issuing any high wind product at this time. Some storms may
again be strong to severe during the morning and early afternoon
hours as good CAPE and bulk shear will be present.
Weak ridging begins to develop over the region on Friday and
temperatures rebound to around normal values. Good low-level
moisture will still be present on Friday so storm chances will
remain in the forecast, especially across the higher terrain where
the lift will be the greatest. Rain and storm chances increase
across the area on Saturday as shortwaves move near the area
increasing upper lift. The combination of a dryline and an
approaching weak frontal boundary will keep rain and storm chances
in the forecast on Sunday mostly across the eastern CWA. The
dryline is expected to push east of the area on Monday as a broad
upper trough over the western conus approaches the region.
Storm chances will be confined to the far eastern CWA where the
best moisture will be present in the extended forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 64 73 60 83 / 50 30 30 10
Carlsbad 59 77 57 88 / 10 20 20 20
Dryden 69 92 66 88 / 20 30 30 20
Fort Stockton 64 83 61 87 / 10 30 20 20
Guadalupe Pass 57 71 54 82 / 10 20 20 30
Hobbs 55 73 56 84 / 20 20 20 10
Marfa 48 84 51 83 / 10 20 20 30
Midland Intl Airport 66 76 60 84 / 30 30 20 10
Odessa 66 76 60 84 / 30 20 20 10
Wink 62 82 60 88 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
70/80
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
219 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.Short Term /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
An upper shortwave trough over Utah and Colorado is moving southeast
this afternoon into Arizona and New Mexico. South of the trough a
speed max in the subtropical jet is moving across central Arizona
and New Mexico. This morning`s upper air observations and GFS/NAM
700mb projections show an increase in mid and lower level moisture
ahead of this trough and a few showers appear to be sparking over
northern New Mexico and southeast Colorado.
Surface ridging will increase in western Kansas through the rest of
the afternoon and tonight which will send a weak front through the
area. This "front" will largely just be an increase in north to
northeasterly winds with very little change in airmass. Above the
weak frontal slope, some elevated instability will be present
associated with the increased moisture around 700mb and showers and
storms that get started over New Mexico stand a good chance of
persisting as they move into the region tonight. The best large scale
lift and mid to lower level convergence and moisture looks to be over
the northern half of the region, closer to the Oklahoma Panhandle and
continued the highest rain chances there. Steepening mid level lapse
rates amid favorable shear profiles present a marginal risk for hail
in thunderstorms. NAM MUCAPE projections are running between about
1,500 and 2,000 j/kg, however these may be a bit on the high side,
and with only marginal convergence in the elevated unstable layer
believe ramping up severe weather wording in the HWO and other
products is unnecessary for now. The highest chances for small to
possibly marginally severe hail would be in the northern half of the
forecast area.
The upper trough axis passes by Thursday morning with broad surface
ridging shifting southeast into Oklahoma. Winds should shift to the
east with speeds falling into the 8 to 10 mph range through most of
the day Thursday with skies clearing up and temperatures rising into
the mid 70s. Light winds slowly shift to the south Thursday night
amid clear skies with lows dropping into the upper 40s north,a and
lower 50s south.
JGG/BRB
&&
.Prev Discussion... /Issued 1219 p.m. Wednesday May 11 2016/
Aviation...Clear skies with north northeasterly winds gusting to
around 25 knots are expected through the next few hours, with wind
speeds decreasing a bit and shifting eastward late this afternoon.
This evening, an approaching storm system will likely spark scattered
showers and thunderstorms that will move into the Panhandles region from
the northwest. A secondary surge of north winds is also expected
during the early evening with northeasterly gusts increasing to 25
to 30 knots. A broken/overcast ceiling will form above the
associated frontal slope in the 4,000 to 5,000 ft range. Pretty high
confidence in prevailing VFR at all terminals through the night with
the exception of the vicinity of thunderstorms. Winds drop off and
shift more easterly Thursday as mid level clouds clear out.
JGG
Prev Discussion... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...
RUNNING A LITTLE BEHIND SCHEDULE THIS MORNING DUE TO GFE CHRON
ISSUES...BUT ALL IS GOOD NOW. WSR-88D SHOWING COLD FRONT HAVING MOVED
OUT OR JUST ABOUT MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING EAST AND
SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES BY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXIT THE PANHANDLES BY 18Z THURSDAY WITH ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE ENDING BY THAT TIME.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AND WILL ALLOW FOR A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR NORTHWEST
FLOW CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW MENTIONING.
COOL SURFACE RIDGE BUILD DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN
INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE
WEEKEND. VERY ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTING
THE PANHANDLES BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING AND THEN TRACKING
EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEXT MONDAY AND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES NEXT TUESDAY.
SCHNEIDER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 77 48 72 51 84 / 5 40 10 0 5
BEAVER OK 77 48 76 51 84 / 10 40 5 0 5
BOISE CITY OK 71 44 71 49 83 / 20 40 5 0 5
BORGER TX 79 53 74 55 84 / 10 50 10 5 5
BOYS RANCH TX 79 50 73 51 85 / 10 40 10 0 5
CANYON TX 78 48 72 50 84 / 5 40 10 0 5
CLARENDON TX 81 52 74 51 84 / 0 50 20 5 5
DALHART TX 74 46 70 48 82 / 20 40 10 0 5
GUYMON OK 76 47 73 51 84 / 20 50 5 0 5
HEREFORD TX 79 50 71 50 84 / 5 30 10 5 5
LIPSCOMB TX 78 51 77 52 84 / 5 50 10 0 10
PAMPA TX 76 49 73 50 82 / 5 50 10 5 5
SHAMROCK TX 82 54 77 52 83 / 0 50 20 5 5
WELLINGTON TX 85 54 78 52 84 / 0 50 30 5 5
AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
$$
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
17/18
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
125 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF CYCLE/
Stratus clouds have redeveloped across much of the region late
this morning with ongoing MVFR conditions at KDRT and low end VFR
for KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. KDRT will improve through the mid afternoon
hours to VFR. SHRA activity is expected to quite low today as
there will be no atmospheric trigger to break the capping
inversion. The VFR conditions this afternoon and early evening
will reduce to MVFR and IFR conditions once again late evening
after 04Z tonight through 15Z Thursday. Surface winds will be
south to southeast at 10 to 15 knots this afternoon and then
diminish to near 5 knots overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM/
UPDATE...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT TRIGGERED THE OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ALSO...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY Responsible
FOR STORMS TO INITIATE LAST NIGHT IS NOW ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. HIRES AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DISSIPATE THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TAKES CONTROL. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
RETURN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR EAST
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THERE MAY BE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO
DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY POORLY HANDLED BY
THE HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE SO RELIANCE ON THEM THIS SHIFT HAS
BEEN MINIMAL. LATEST IR TRENDS SHOW THE CURRENT STORM TOPS FINALLY
WARMING AS OF 08Z AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT.
WITH THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX PRODUCING OUTFLOWS THAT HAVE TRAVERSED
THE CWA...STABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
STORM CHANCES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY LIMITED BY STRONG CAPPING.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION IN VAL VERDE AND
EDWARDS COUNTIES BUT WEAK 850MB FLOW...A LACK OF APPRECIABLE
LIFTING...AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S VIA
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW.
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH TEXAS AND STALL JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH LIFTING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS
GIVEN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED
PARCELS WILL STILL BE BATTLING WITH FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING SO
CONTINUE TO THINK THIS THREAT WILL BE MOSTLY ISOLATED AND FAVOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WEEKEND AND A PACIFIC LOW COMING
ONSHORE AND BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE PATTERN BY SUNDAY. BOTH LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING QPF GENERATION JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE CWA.
DISAGREEMENTS EXIST IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ENTERING
MONDAY BUT THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF TO A LESSER EXTENT ADVERTISE A
BROAD SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING QPF GENERATION IN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS GIVEN THE LACK OF ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PRESENT. DID NOT VENTURE BEYOND 50 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS
TIME FRAME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY STILL PRESENT.
BEYOND MONDAY...MORE PATTERN DISAGREEMENTS EXIST IN THE GFS AND
EURO WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT WAVE MID WEEK AND HANDLING OF A
MUCH DEEPER PACIFIC LOW LATE IN THE WEEK. MORE TO COME ON THESE
WITH MORE MODEL RUNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 70 86 68 86 67 / 20 30 40 20 -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 86 67 86 65 / 20 20 40 20 -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 87 68 88 66 / 20 20 30 20 -
Burnet Muni Airport 68 83 66 84 66 / 30 30 40 20 -
Del Rio Intl Airport 72 91 70 90 70 / 10 30 40 20 -
Georgetown Muni Airport 69 84 66 85 66 / 30 30 40 20 -
Hondo Muni Airport 71 89 67 89 66 / 20 10 20 20 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 69 86 68 86 65 / 20 20 30 20 -
La Grange - Fayette Regional 71 86 68 86 67 / 10 20 40 30 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 71 87 69 88 67 / 20 20 20 20 -
Stinson Muni Airport 71 89 69 89 68 / 10 20 20 20 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Mesoscale/Aviation...Allen
Synoptic/Grids...17
Public Service/Data Collection...33
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
125 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF CYCLE/
Stratus clouds have redeveloped across much of the region late
this morning with ongoing MVFR conditions at KDRT and low end VFR
for KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. KDRT will improve through the mid afternoon
hours to VFR. SHRA activity is expected to quite low today as
there will be no atmospheric trigger to break the capping
inversion. The VFR conditions this afternoon and early evening
will reduce to MVFR and IFR conditions once again late evening
after 04Z tonight through 15Z Thursday. Surface winds will be
south to southeast at 10 to 15 knots this afternoon and then
diminish to near 5 knots overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM/
UPDATE...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT TRIGGERED THE OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ALSO...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY Responsible
FOR STORMS TO INITIATE LAST NIGHT IS NOW ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. HIRES AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DISSIPATE THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TAKES CONTROL. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
RETURN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR EAST
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THERE MAY BE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO
DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY POORLY HANDLED BY
THE HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE SO RELIANCE ON THEM THIS SHIFT HAS
BEEN MINIMAL. LATEST IR TRENDS SHOW THE CURRENT STORM TOPS FINALLY
WARMING AS OF 08Z AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT.
WITH THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX PRODUCING OUTFLOWS THAT HAVE TRAVERSED
THE CWA...STABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
STORM CHANCES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY LIMITED BY STRONG CAPPING.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION IN VAL VERDE AND
EDWARDS COUNTIES BUT WEAK 850MB FLOW...A LACK OF APPRECIABLE
LIFTING...AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S VIA
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW.
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH TEXAS AND STALL JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH LIFTING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS
GIVEN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED
PARCELS WILL STILL BE BATTLING WITH FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING SO
CONTINUE TO THINK THIS THREAT WILL BE MOSTLY ISOLATED AND FAVOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WEEKEND AND A PACIFIC LOW COMING
ONSHORE AND BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE PATTERN BY SUNDAY. BOTH LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING QPF GENERATION JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE CWA.
DISAGREEMENTS EXIST IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ENTERING
MONDAY BUT THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF TO A LESSER EXTENT ADVERTISE A
BROAD SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING QPF GENERATION IN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS GIVEN THE LACK OF ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PRESENT. DID NOT VENTURE BEYOND 50 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS
TIME FRAME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY STILL PRESENT.
BEYOND MONDAY...MORE PATTERN DISAGREEMENTS EXIST IN THE GFS AND
EURO WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT WAVE MID WEEK AND HANDLING OF A
MUCH DEEPER PACIFIC LOW LATE IN THE WEEK. MORE TO COME ON THESE
WITH MORE MODEL RUNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 70 86 68 86 67 / 20 30 40 20 -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 86 67 86 65 / 20 20 40 20 -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 87 68 88 66 / 20 20 30 20 -
Burnet Muni Airport 68 83 66 84 66 / 30 30 40 20 -
Del Rio Intl Airport 72 91 70 90 70 / 10 30 40 20 -
Georgetown Muni Airport 69 84 66 85 66 / 30 30 40 20 -
Hondo Muni Airport 71 89 67 89 66 / 20 10 20 20 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 69 86 68 86 65 / 20 20 30 20 -
La Grange - Fayette Regional 71 86 68 86 67 / 10 20 40 30 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 71 87 69 88 67 / 20 20 20 20 -
Stinson Muni Airport 71 89 69 89 68 / 10 20 20 20 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Mesoscale/Aviation...Allen
Synoptic/Grids...17
Public Service/Data Collection...33
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
115 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through about
midnight/05 UTC. Then, a cold front/thunderstorm outflow will
pass through the area and bring a chance of t-storms...more likely
to affect KCDS where we continue a PROB30 mention. In addition,
low status may cause some MVFR to IFR conditions at all terminals,
however we have kept the tafs VFR at KPVW and KLBB as confidence
in the extent of the low stratus is low at this time. The bkn to
ovc cloud layer will slowly clear out from north to south on
thursday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1120 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/
UPDATE...
It appears that the front has begun to stall out across our srn
counties and the nrn permian basin. As the winds slowly come
around to the west on the caprock, the shallow post-frontal
moisture will be gradually scoured out. However, in the rolling
plains...winds are expected to remain nrly and turn northeasterly
this afternoon, and maintain higher moisture levels especially in
the eastern and southern rolling plains. As for the t-storm
forecast for later this afternoon, it appears development chances
for our area they will be limited to a small region in the srn
rolling plains where the moisture may prove sufficient in the
vicinity of some convergence and lift along the remnant frontal
boundary. Given the nebulous large-scale ascent, storm coverage
will likely be isolated, but instability will likely support the
threat of large hail and damaging wind gusts for any storms that
develop. We have made only minor changes to the weather grids but
we will update the hazardous weather outlook to reflect the
somewhat less supportive environment and lower expected coverage
of t-storms.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/
AVIATION...
The outflow enhanced frontal boundary was still making southward
progress and should result in mostly northerly low level flow
through midday KPVW and KLBB, perhaps all day at KCDS. Moisture
will remain a premium within the northerly flow although obviously
improved over the exceptionally dry pre-boundary environment. By
sometime in the afternoon, low level flow should recover back to
south or even maybe southwest both KPVW and KLBB and back to the
dry air regime. The best chance for thunder through the daytime
hours will be south of KCDS. Overnight, we are expecting lift to
increase through the Panhandle as an upper trough passes late.
This will enhance thunder chances at KCDS in particular, where a
PROB30 is supported late tonight. RMcQueen
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/
SHORT TERM...
AN OUTFLOW ENHANCED BOUNDARY WAS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A REMAINING MODEST
PUSH THAT SHOULD GET SOMEWHERE INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ZONES
BEFORE STALLING OUT LATER THIS MORNING. A DRY LINE ALSO CONTINUED TO
RETREAT NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR AREA. MOISTURE WILL
POOL BETTER TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES ALTHOUGH LATEST HRRR AND
RAP LESS THAN CERTAIN THAT DRIER AIR WONT RETURN MUCH OF THIS AREA
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CAPROCK IS EXPECTED TO BE
DOMINATED BY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS...OTHER THAN PERHAPS NORTHERN
AREAS BEHIND THE STALLED FRONT. SOUTHEAST WITH DECENT FORECAST
INSTABILITY AND A WEAK CAP VALID FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATER TODAY
AND ALSO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION RISK FOR SEVERE.
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK A BIT NORTH BUT APPEARS UNLIKELY
TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED STORM CHANCES UNTIL AN UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL REINVIGORATE THE FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RELEASE CONVECTIVE ENERGY ESPECIALLY EASTERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT AT LEAST LOW CHANCE NOW EXPANDED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME RISK THE LATE NIGHT STORM
CHANCES COULD PROVE SEVERE...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT REASSESS IF
NEEDED FOR EXPLICIT MENTION. FEW CHANGES WITH TEMPERATURES.
RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
PRECIP AS WELL AS CLOUDS SHOULD BE MIGRATING SOUTHWARD BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS COOL NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS STAY IN PLACE INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BY
FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE THE EAST AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL MOVE IN AROUND SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. MODEL TRENDS FOR SATURDAY HAVE BEEN ON THE WET SIDE
LATELY BY PICKING UP ON A SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD AND JOINS
FORCES WITH FRONTOGENETIC LIFT. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH THAN THE
ECMWF BY GIVING THE SHORTWAVE MORE ENERGY TO WORK WITH. CONFIDENCE
IN HAVING PRECIP IS DECENTLY HIGH RELATIVELY SPEAKING AS THE
INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE IN PLACE. THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IS WITH HOW
HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE.
MORE PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES AND SURFACE FLOW TRIGGERS OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED
CONVECTION OVER NM WHICH TRANSLATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND
EXITS THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. NEXT ON DECK WILL BE AN UPPER
LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE INNER MOUNTAIN WEST THAT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE FA BY TUESDAY. SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BE
MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD DRY US OUT. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT WILL DEPEND ON
IF MOISTURE CAN BE PUSHED BACK INTO THE REGION QUICK ENOUGH. AS OF
NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER AND WE WILL
REMAIN DRY. AS SUCH THE FORECAST WILL LACK ANY MENTION OF PRECIP
LATE TUESDAY AND BEYOND. ALDRICH
&&
LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
333 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SE MONTANA WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FARTHER
SOUTH OVER TEXAS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
ALOFT AND SOME INDICATION OF A JET STREAK COMING INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS FROM THE WEST. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING
CUMULUS OVER THIS AREA AND MAY BE STARTING TO GET ENHANCED
CONVECTION OVER THE NW HILL COUNTRY. SURFACE ANALYSIS A MEANDERING
DRY LINE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IF THE DRY LINE BECOMES MORE
DEFINED. LATEST SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE HRRR
SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AND THEN PUSHING EAST OVER THE NEXT
6 HOURS. LATER RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW THIS ACTIVITY REACHING THE
BRAZOS VALLEY AROUND 9-11PM CDT (02-04Z) TONIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED TO SHOW A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT BUT
THINK THAT CAPPING MAY BE THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR MAINTAINING ANY
CONVECTION INTO SE TEXAS. WHILE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTION REACHING BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION...NEW TRENDS WITH THE
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ENOUGH TO TAKE NOTICE AND MONITOR.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER SE MONTANA MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
CANADA. THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INTO NORTH
TEXAS AND REACHES THE NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF
30-40 PERCENT. THE FRONT MAY REACH THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. DEWPOINT TEMPS MAY REACH THE LOW 60S
INSTEAD OF THE LOW 70S. SATURDAY MAY BE THE ONE NICE DAY OF THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF RATHER QUICKLY ON SUNDAY.
FINALLY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE OF THE FORECAST IT LOOKS LIKE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL NEED TO MONITORED FOR A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DROPPING FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE GFS HAS A STRONG
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL WITH 3-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 6 HOURS POSSIBLY
REACHING HUNTSVILLE TO CROCKETT SOUTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE HOUSTON AREA BUT THE ECMWF
HAS A MORE BROAD AREA THAT COULD RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A STRONGER JET STREAK. BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH DURING THIS TIME
WHICH COULD PROVIDE MORE MOISTURE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. GFS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY TOP OUT AT 1.8 INCHES WITH MAYBE AN
ISOLATED SPOT AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS IS MORE IN THE 90 TO 98TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY. THE FORECAST GOES WITH A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME MAINLY SINCE THERE IS
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS AND RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE
DETERMINED BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES HARD TO DEFINE THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE. THE POINT BEING THAT FORECAST DATA WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
OVERPECK
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THRU WEDS. WINDS/SEAS STILL RIGHT AROUND/BORDERLINE SMALL
CRAFT CAUTION FLAGS...BUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF CRITERIA...SO WILL
DROP MENTION FOR TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FUR-
THER ON THURS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO SE TX.
MODELS STILL INDICATING ITS PASSAGE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
LIGHT N/NE WINDS PROGGED BY EARLY FRI. HOWEVER WITH THE SFC HIGH
BUILDING DOWN INTO THE AREA BY FRI AFTN/EVE...THIS OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BE VERY BRIEF... AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO PREVAIL BY FRI
NIGHT. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS TO RETURN SAT...WITH INCREASED WINDS/
RAIN CHC SUN INTO MON AS DISTURBANCES IN THE SRN STREAM JET MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 71 87 70 85 68 / 30 20 20 30 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 87 71 87 70 / 20 10 10 30 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 76 80 74 81 74 / 20 10 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT KCDS AND KPVW...BUT THE
FRONT MAY STALL OUT IN THE VICINITY OF KLBB.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/
AVIATION...
VFR WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLIES NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/
SHORT TERM...
WE WILL FINALLY GET A RESPITE FROM THE WIND TODAY AS ACTIVE STORM
SYSTEMS MOVE SUFFICIENTLY DISTANT TO MITIGATE THE EFFECTS ON OUR
WEATHER...AT LEAST TO SOME EXTENT. BAROTROPIC LOW ALONG THE MT/WY
STATE LINE WILL EASE INTO MANITOBA BY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
POLAR JET SWEEPS FROM NV INTO CO THENCE INTO THE DAKOTAS.
INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL LEAD TO NOTICABLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH VALUES APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. STILL...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
CLEAR OF RECORD HIGH TEMPS AT LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS...99/104
RESPECTIVELY. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN UNDER 20
MPH AS WELL WHICH WILL BE A NICE CHANGE. ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWFA AROUND 3AM WEDNESDAY BUT
STANDS A CHANCE OF STALLING OUT. MORE ABOUT THAT IN THE LONG TERM
BELOW.
LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE FA TOMORROW AND WILL CREATE A
WIDE VARIATION IN HIGH TEMPS. AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WHILE OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE TEMPS GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S. THE FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
NEARS THE REGION. MODELS SHOW A CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE IN PLACE.
FRONTOGENETIC AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. THE BIGGEST ISSUE FROM KEEPING POPS FROM BEING
HIGHER THAN CHANCE IS THE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING THAT CAN
BE ATTAINED AS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROF REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON
THURSDAY...LOW/MID 70S...AS SURFACE FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK UP ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE FLOW VEERS
BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.
THE RIDGE WILL BE HEADING EAST INTO SATURDAY THANKS TO AN UPPER
LOW MOVING IN TO WA/OR. THE QUESTION OF PRECIP HAS BEEN MOSTLY UP
IN THE AIR FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS THE ECMWF REMAINED DRY AND
THE GFS HAS BEEN WET. THE ECMWF HAS STARTED TO MOISTEN UP BY
WARMING UP TO THE IDEA OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS NM BEING
PUSHED EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF DOES STAY MORE SPOTTY
WITH COVERAGE WHICH SEEMS MORE PROBABLE. LIFT FOR PRECIP WILL
ENHANCE JUST TO OUR EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROF TAPS IN TO HIGHER
MOISTURE AND MOVES OVER A FRONT SUNDAY EVENING. THIS IS WHERE THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF CHANGE POSITIONS WITH PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FA.
THE GFS SHOWS A DRY FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF IS MORE GENEROUS BY KEEPING
MOISTURE IN PLACE WHILE PROVIDING LIFT. CURRENTLY THE GFS APPEARS
MORE PROBABLE AND HAS THE MOST WEIGHT IN THE POP FORECAST. ALDRICH
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1228 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Low clouds and fog has dissipated for the moment, but all models
are indicating at least scattered convection to develop across
West Central Texas by mid afternoon. Best forecast right now would
have the storms south and southeast of San Angelo, with the
Sonora, Junction, and Brady terminals the most likely to be
affected. Have included a VCTS and a CB group for those 3
locations for the afternoon and evening. Once the storms actually
develop, may be able to pin down the timing a little bit better.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Look for moderately challenging flight conditions during the next
24 hours. Patchy fog this morning, has reduced the visibility at
the Junction terminal to five satute miles; expect this fog to
linger for a couple hours. Thunderstorms may develop today and
tonight...mainly along and southeast of a line from Ozona, to San
Angelo, to Coleman. Large hail and damaging winds are possible
with some thunderstorms.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 432 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
.Possible Thunderstorms Southeast...
Thunderstorms may develop across our southeastern counties today and
tonight. Models continue to indicate the potential for
thunderstorms...mainly along and southeast of a line from Ozona, to
San Angelo, to Coleman. The HRRR begins development across our
Northwest Hill Country counties around 2 pm CDT and then expends the
development area northwest. The Storm prediction Center has much of
this same area designated as either marginal or slight risk areas.
But, models still don`t indicate very good upper support. So, the
main forcing will be thermodynamic. Given low confidence for exactly
where and when any thunderstorms may develop, will continue only
slight chance PoPs for the today and tonight periods.
LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Wednesday afternoon, a dryline is expected to set up along the
western edge of West Central Texas from Iraan to Sterling City to
Sweetwater to Childress. Isolated thunderstorms are possible
along/east of the dryline, but there is a better chance of storms
Wednesday night, as an upper shortwave moves through the Central
Plains and a cold front approaches the Big Country toward morning.
The best potential for storms will be in the Big Country, where
the best dynamics are in place. Day 3 SPC outlook has
marginal/slight risk of storms for the I-20 and northward area.
Still, a storm could become severe anywhere, if it develops, as
the GFS model forecasts SB CAPES of 2000-4000 J/KG along and east
of a Sonora...San Angelo...Abilene...Throckmorton line.
Storm chances continue Thursday as a cold front moves through.
Again a few severe thunderstorms possible, particularly south of
the Big Country where GFS was indicating MUCAPES of 2000 to 3000
J/KG. Day 3 SPC outlook has a marginal risk of severe storms
Thursday for all of West Central Texas.
There is small lull in showers and thunderstorms Friday and
Friday night, before thunderstorms chances return Saturday into
Sunday. There are several shortwaves in zonal flow aloft along
with possible dryline interaction Sunday/Sunday night. Instability
is not a strong (CAPES were in the 1000-1500 J/KG) but can not
rule out a severe storm. While a cold front brings more stable
air Monday night and Tuesday, a few storms could develop, mainly
in eastern sections where more moisture will be available.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 93 67 91 62 / 5 10 20 50
San Angelo 92 66 91 65 / 20 20 20 30
Junction 92 65 88 65 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
636 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
IFR CIGS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
SOME MVFR BR. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BUT SHOULD
RAPIDLY IMPROVE AROUND THE 15Z TIME FRAME. THEN VFR WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF KAUS AND PUSH SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. ALSO
INCLUDED VCTS FOR KDRT AS STORMS WEST OF THE TERMINAL MAY MOVE
EAST AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX EAST INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY REGION. ALSO...850 FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH
WILL BRING RICH THETA-E VALUES INTO THE REGION BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE TWO FEATURES IN COMBINATION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE INITIATION OF UPDRAFTS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW CAPPING INITIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TODAY ACCORDING TO THE
SOUNDINGS WILL BE AROUND 89-90 DEGREES AND WE SHOULD BE WARMER
THAN THAT. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE CAP TO BREAK BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND WE SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AROUND 21Z IN THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTION AND DRYLINE COINCIDE. IN ADDITION TO
THIS AREA...SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG CELLS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE MOVING EAST INTO THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL. AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH 4000 J/KG WHICH WILL PROMOTE POTENTIALLY VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP ONCE PARCELS REACH THE LFC. IN
ADDITION...SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT SOME
MESOCYCLONES WHICH COULD HELP PROLONG THE LIFE OF STORMS AND
ENHANCE HAIL PRODUCTION. LCLS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AND THERE COULD
BE A WIND THREAT AS WELL BUT LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ESPECIALLY INITIALLY.
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE FAIRLY STRAIGHT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SPLITTING CELLS. THE BUNKERS RIGHT MOTION VECTOR IS
WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS. IF WE DO GET A SPLITTING
CELL...THERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS
STORM MOTIONS SLOW TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS
PROGGING CONVECTION INITIATION AROUND 21Z IN THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY CONGEALING INTO A LINE AS COLD
POOLS DEVELOP. THIS LINE OF STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE FORECAST EVOLUTION IS
DEPENDENT ON MANY FACTORS COMING TOGETHER AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS
AN EXACT SOLUTION IS LOW. WILL SHOW 30 POPS AFTER 21Z CONTINUING
INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENDING BY 06Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. THE
DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT FARTHER WEST TOMORROW AND MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF WE DO GET STORMS...THERE WOULD BE A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS CAPE VALUES ARE GREATER
THAN 3500 J/KG.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
CWA ON THURSDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG AS CAPE
VALUES REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH...BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY AND WILL KEEP POPS RELATIVELY LOW.
MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS BEYOND SUNDAY BUT AN ACTIVE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 71 88 70 85 / 20 30 20 30 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 71 87 69 85 / 10 20 20 20 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 70 88 70 85 / 10 20 20 20 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 90 69 86 68 83 / 30 30 30 30 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 95 71 92 72 91 / 20 20 20 20 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 70 87 69 83 / 20 30 30 30 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 93 71 90 69 88 / 20 30 20 20 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 70 86 69 85 / 10 20 20 20 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 88 72 88 71 86 / 10 20 20 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 71 87 71 86 / 20 20 20 20 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 92 72 90 71 88 / 20 20 20 20 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
633 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Look for moderately challenging flight conditions during the next
24 hours. Patchy fog this morning, has reduced the visibility at
the Junction terminal to five satute miles; expect this fog to
linger for a couple hours. Thunderstorms may develop today and
tonight...mainly along and southeast of a line from Ozona, to San
Angelo, to Coleman. Large hail and damaging winds are possible
with some thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 432 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
..Possible Thunderstorms Southeast...
Thunderstorms may develop across our southeastern counties today and
tonight. Models continue to indicate the potential for
thunderstorms...mainly along and southeast of a line from Ozona, to
San Angelo, to Coleman. The HRRR begins development across our
Northwest Hill Country counties around 2 pm CDT and then expends the
development area northwest. The Storm prediction Center has much of
this same area designated as either marginal or slight risk areas.
But, models still don`t indicate very good upper support. So, the
main forcing will be thermodynamic. Given low confidence for exactly
where and when any thunderstorms may develop, will continue only
slight chance PoPs for the today and tonight periods.
LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Wednesday afternoon, a dryline is expected to set up along the
western edge of West Central Texas from Iraan to Sterling City to
Sweetwater to Childress. Isolated thunderstorms are possible
along/east of the dryline, but there is a better chance of storms
Wednesday night, as an upper shortwave moves through the Central
Plains and a cold front approaches the Big Country toward morning.
The best potential for storms will be in the Big Country, where
the best dynamics are in place. Day 3 SPC outlook has
marginal/slight risk of storms for the I-20 and northward area.
Still, a storm could become severe anywhere, if it develops, as
the GFS model forecasts SB CAPES of 2000-4000 J/KG along and east
of a Sonora...San Angelo...Abilene...Throckmorton line.
Storm chances continue Thursday as a cold front moves through.
Again a few severe thunderstorms possible, particularly south of
the Big Country where GFS was indicating MUCAPES of 2000 to 3000
J/KG. Day 3 SPC outlook has a marginal risk of severe storms
Thursday for all of West Central Texas.
There is small lull in showers and thunderstorms Friday and
Friday night, before thunderstorms chances return Saturday into
Sunday. There are several shortwaves in zonal flow aloft along
with possible dryline interaction Sunday/Sunday night. Instability
is not a strong (CAPES were in the 1000-1500 J/KG) but can not
rule out a severe storm. While a cold front brings more stable
air Monday night and Tuesday, a few storms could develop, mainly
in eastern sections where more moisture will be available.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 93 67 91 61 / 5 10 20 40
San Angelo 92 66 92 64 / 20 10 20 20
Junction 92 65 89 64 / 20 20 30 20
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
99/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
347 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL THEN FLOW INTO
THE BORDERLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN TO WARM DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH IT
MAY ALSO BE BREEZY TO WINDY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WILL REMAIN AT THE BASE OF A
MEAN TROUGH COVERING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THE NEXT TWO DAYS
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUSTAINED WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THUS WARM DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHTER WINDS. TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES WITH
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA
IN A SUBSIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FURTHER SUPPORTING WARM DRY
CONDITIONS.
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL MEANWHILE MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. INITIALLY THE CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES WILL PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER AS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SO BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM 40 F NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TO 50 OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING
PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO AROUND .7 TO 1 INCH WITH AIR MASS
BECOMING UNSTABLE WITH FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THESE ELEMENTS WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE PRESENCE OF RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
UNFAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT WHICH MAY KEEP COVERAGE MOSTLY IN THE
ISOLATED CATEGORY.
BY SUNDAY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING DRIER AIR BACK INTO
THE CWA FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD. LONGER RANGE MODELS
ALSO FORECAST RATHER STRONG LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AREA ON SUNDAY SUGGESTING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 10/12Z-11/12Z.
VFR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN
20 KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WESTERLY WINDS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWEST HUMIDITY WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 15
PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY BUT WITH SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN
20 MPH. THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
WILL THEN FLOW INTO THE BORDERLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM DRY WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 86 59 89 61 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 85 56 88 58 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 85 53 86 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 86 55 86 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 64 45 64 44 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 85 54 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 77 48 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 84 52 85 53 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 84 50 86 52 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 85 59 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 87 51 89 52 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 88 56 91 59 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 81 56 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 86 56 89 58 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 85 56 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 85 57 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 85 51 86 53 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 87 51 88 53 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 86 53 88 55 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 85 55 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 75 49 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 74 46 74 45 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 72 45 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 77 43 78 43 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 82 52 83 52 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 85 53 85 54 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 77 40 79 41 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 79 47 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 82 44 84 45 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 79 41 82 43 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 80 48 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 84 51 86 55 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 84 51 86 54 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 83 51 86 54 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 79 50 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05 ROGASH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
432 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
...Possible Thunderstorms Southeast...
Thunderstorms may develop across our southeastern counties today and
tonight. Models continue to indicate the potential for
thunderstorms...mainly along and southeast of a line from Ozona, to
San Angelo, to Coleman. The HRRR begins development across our
Northwest Hill Country counties around 2 pm CDT and then expends the
development area northwest. The Storm prediction Center has much of
this same area designated as either marginal or slight risk areas.
But, models still don`t indicate very good upper support. So, the
main forcing will be thermodynamic. Given low confidence for exactly
where and when any thunderstorms may develop, will continue only
slight chance PoPs for the today and tonight periods.
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Wednesday afternoon, a dryline is expected to set up along the
western edge of West Central Texas from Iraan to Sterling City to
Sweetwater to Childress. Isolated thunderstorms are possible
along/east of the dryline, but there is a better chance of storms
Wednesday night, as an upper shortwave moves through the Central
Plains and a cold front approaches the Big Country toward morning.
The best potential for storms will be in the Big Country, where
the best dynamics are in place. Day 3 SPC outlook has
marginal/slight risk of storms for the I-20 and northward area.
Still, a storm could become severe anywhere, if it develops, as
the GFS model forecasts SB CAPES of 2000-4000 J/KG along and east
of a Sonora...San Angelo...Abilene...Throckmorton line.
Storm chances continue Thursday as a cold front moves through.
Again a few severe thunderstorms possible, particularly south of
the Big Country where GFS was indicating MUCAPES of 2000 to 3000
J/KG. Day 3 SPC outlook has a marginal risk of severe storms
Thursday for all of West Central Texas.
There is small lull in showers and thunderstorms Friday and
Friday night, before thunderstorms chances return Saturday into
Sunday. There are several shortwaves in zonal flow aloft along
with possible dryline interaction Sunday/Sunday night. Instability
is not a strong (CAPES were in the 1000-1500 J/KG) but can not
rule out a severe storm. While a cold front brings more stable
air Monday night and Tuesday, a few storms could develop, mainly
in eastern sections where more moisture will be available.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 93 67 91 61 / 5 10 20 40
San Angelo 92 66 92 64 / 20 10 20 20
Junction 92 65 89 64 / 20 20 30 20
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
99/04
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
612 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY. COOLER AIR SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 612 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES...SHAPING TOWARDS THE
SFC OBS AND LAV GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FOR EARLY
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...BLENDED IN HRRR WHICH CAPTURED THE
CONVECTION ALONG BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. DECIDED TO HOLD ON TO
SCATTERED POPS TONIGHT...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION.
WILL WAIT AND SEE IF A BAND OF CONVECTION APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE AS SUGGESTED BY HRRR AND RNK WRFARW AFTER 08Z. THE
HIRESW-ARW EAST MODEL WEAKENS CONVECTION BEFORE ITS ARRIVAL LATE
TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS
EVENING...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...
A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN LYNCHBURG AND
THE REST OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. CLOUDS ARE STILL HOLDING AT
LYNCHBURG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S, BUT THE CLOUDS COULD
CLEAR IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. MEANWHILE, SUNSHINE HAS EMERGED
TO SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. THIS
HEATING HAS DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE WHERE OVER 1,000 J/KG OF
CAPE IS AVAILABLE ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE PIEDMONT
ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. WITH
A STATIONARY FRONT STILL OVER THE REGION AND THIS AFOREMENTIONED
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD WANE TOWARD MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, SOME
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A
LITTLE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL AND
THE MOIST GROUND. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT
ORIGINATED EARLIER. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT ON THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL
GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CLEAR TO INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY. WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT STILL OVERHEAD, THERE IS
STILL A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WERE
KEPT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 60S TO THE UPPER
70S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO AN
EASTERN TROF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUITE
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MEANDERING
BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING
ALONG AS THE MAIN PARENT LOWS CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE AREA
WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY THE DIGGING UPPER TROF WILL DRIVE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND SWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION AND USHER IN MUCH COLDER
AIR FOR THE WEEKEND ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINE WITH
A SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. THIS PATTERN IS NOT
DECLARING ANY DEFINITIVE SCENARIO FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR REGION
BUT WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY SPECIFIC DETAILS WILL BE EVALUATED DAILY
ALONG WITH THE PROSPECT OF ANY LOCAL HYDRO ISSUES ARISING FROM LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS WELL OVER ONE INCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS IT BECOMES QUASI
ZONAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...BUT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN SAG
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN OUR FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION BY TUESDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT TUESDAY...
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION, BUT KROA
AND KLYH STILL REMAIN WITH A MVFR CEILING AT THIS HOUR. THOSE
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE MAIN AVIATION THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PINPOINT
EXACTLY WHERE ANY CONVECTION WILL FIRE. IT SEEMS THAT AREAS ALONG
KBLF/KLWB/KBCB MAY BE WHERE ANY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS FIRST. VCTS
REMAINS IN ALL TAF SITES, BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER APPEARS
TO BE LATER THIS EVENING DURING THE 4 PM TO 8 PM WINDOW.
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD SUBSIDE TOWARD MIDNIGHT TONIGHT,
WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER SEVERAL HOURS LONGER. THE WET
GROUND AND RECENT RAINFALL COULD ALLOW SOME MVFR/IFR FOG TO FORM
AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ALOFT
THAT MAY KEEP THE VISIBILITIES FROM DROPPING LOWER. HOWEVER, THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING TOWARD EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT KLYH FOR THE LOWER
CEILINGS TO MATERIALIZE. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REACH
KBLF/KLWB/KBCB/KROA LATER IN THE MORNING FROM ANY REMNANTS OF
UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT ORIGINATED EARLIER.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION, THERE
COULD STILL BE PATCHY FOG AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVERHEAD BY
FRIDAY, SO ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING AT KLYH/KDAN TO VFR SHOULD
TAKE PLACE LATER THIS WEEKEND WHEN A COOLER AIR MASS ARRIVES. SOME
MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING BETTER FLYING WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
REGION DURING SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...KK/PW
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
341 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore of New England today, while a
frontal boundary remains to our south. This frontal boundary will
lift northward across the area overnight tonight as a warm front,
followed by a cold frontal passage Friday. Another frontal
boundary will cross the area late on Saturday. An area of low
pressure will strengthen across New England over the weekend and
move into southeast Canada through Monday. Another cold front or
surface trough will cross the area Sunday, followed by yet another
one on Monday. High pressure is forecast to return to the area
late Monday into early Tuesday. An area of low pressure is
expected to lift a warm front across the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday, followed by a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Fog has been slow to develop and the nearly saturated layer
appears to be quite shallow. Thus expect any morning fog to
dissipate within the first few hours after sunrise.
Through the day today, an upper level short wave ridge will slide
east over the region. As a result, expect dry conditions through
the day time hours. Light southeasterly low level flow could
temper high today, as well as a persistent marine layer along the
Coastal Plains through the morning hours. Still, with the
increasing 1000-500mb thickness values (thanks to the short wave
ridge), should see max temps a few degrees higher than yesterday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Warm front makes slow progress north through the region
overnight. In the mid and upper levels, the short wave ridge moves
off shore as the next short wave trough begins to approach the
region (but should remain west of the region through the overnight
hours.
In the wake of the warm front, moisture and warm air advection,
could lead to a few showers moving into our region, though the
best lift looks to stay west of our region through this time. &&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will move across the area from west to east on
Friday. There will be some instability across the area, and PW
values increase across the area to around 1.5 inches. Therefore
there will be the chance for thunderstorms to accompany the
rainfall that is likely. Some showers and thunderstorms could
produce a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. Winds behind the
front will likely become gusty around 15 to 20 mph. Drier weather
is expected overnight Friday behind the cold front.
On Saturday, another cold front will move across the area. There
will remain some instability across the area, although PW values
are forecast to be less. However, the dynamics with Saturday`s
front may be stronger with a stronger jet aloft. So while PW
values may be less, there could still be a period of moderate to
heavy rainfall. Gusty winds are expected behind the frontal
passage with gusts of 25 to 30 mph expected. Dry weather will
return overnight Saturday night, along with cooler temperatures.
An area of low pressure will strengthen to our north, while high
pressure begins to build to our west. This will keep a steady
breeze across the area overnight.
Low pressure will remain to our north on Sunday, with another
frontal boundary or surface trough expected to cross the area
later in the day. While PW values drop below 0.5 inches, which
would normally would indicate a precipitation free forecast, there
remains steep low level lapse rates, along with some higher RH
values in the low-mid levels. As a short wave/vorticity impulse
slides across the area, there could be some light sprinkles make
their way into our area during the day within the northwest flow.
Winds during the day could again gust 25 to 30 mph.
Yet another frontal boundary/surface trough is expected on
Monday, however, with limited lapse rates and moisture, no
precipitation is expected. However, an increase in clouds cover
and gusty afternoon winds of 25 to 30 mph are once again expected.
Dry weather will continue into Monday night as high pressure
builds briefly builds across the area.
From Tuesday through Wednesday, there are some timing differences
with the next weather system. An area of low pressure is forecast
to eventually lift through the Ohio River Valley and into New
England, while lifting a warm front across the area, then pushing
a cold front across the area. The GFS is faster than the ECMWF,
bring the warm front through Tuesday night/Wednesday and the cold
front Wednesday night/Thursday. The ECMWF is about 12-24 hours
slower. For now, we will continue with a chance of showers Tuesday
through Wednesday. The best probabilities will be focused around
individual short wave/vorticity impulses. There could be some
instability ahead of the cold front, so we`ve included thunder in
the Wednesday forecast for now.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Low clouds and fog are expected to affect the TAF sites
intermittently through 12Z, before slowly dissipating through the
morning hours. Most locations should return to VFR by 15Z. Once VFR
conditions return, expect them to continue through at least 06Z.
After 06z, low clouds and possibly light fog could move into the
region from the south as a warm front lifts through the region. In
addition, closer to 12Z, a few showers may move into the region from
the west. Either one of these factors could lead to MVFR, and
localized IFR conditions developing before 12Z.
OUTLOOK...
Friday...Showers and thunderstorms possible with a cold frontal
passage. MVFR or IFR CIGS and VSBYS likely. Gusty west-northwest
winds behind the front of 15-20 knots.
Friday night...VFR expected.
Saturday...Another cold frontal passage with additional showers and
thunderstorms which could lower CIGS and VSBYS to MVFR or IFR again.
Gusty southwest winds 20-25 knots early, becoming west-northwest
behind the cold front.
Saturday...VFR expected.
Sunday...Generally VFR. Scattered showers possible during the day.
Gusty west-northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.
Sunday night...VFR expected.
Monday...VFR with gusty west to northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below small craft advisory conditions.
Seas are expected to stay around 2 feet or less. Winds should remain
near or below 15 kt today and tonight, though direction will shift
from easterly or southeasterly today and this evening to southerly
overnight as a warm front lifts through the region.
OUTLOOK...
Friday-Saturday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Cold
frontal passages Friday and Saturday, which could cause winds to
gust around 20 knots at times.
Saturday night-Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely
through the period with cold frontal passages Sunday and Monday.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...Johnson
Short Term...Johnson
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Johnson/Robertson
Marine...Johnson/Robertson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
341 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore of New England today, while a
frontal boundary remains to our south. This frontal boundary will
lift northward across the area overnight tonight as a warm front,
followed by a cold frontal passage Friday. Another frontal
boundary will cross the area late on Saturday. An area of low
pressure will strengthen across New England over the weekend and
move into southeast Canada through Monday. Another cold front or
surface trough will cross the area Sunday, followed by yet another
one on Monday. High pressure is forecast to return to the area
late Monday into early Tuesday. An area of low pressure is
expected to lift a warm front across the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday, followed by a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Fog has been slow to develop and the nearly saturated layer
appears to be quite shallow. Thus expect any morning fog to
dissipate within the first few hours after sunrise.
Through the day today, an upper level short wave ridge will slide
east over the region. As a result, expect dry conditions through
the day time hours. Light southeasterly low level flow could
temper high today, as well as a persistent marine layer along the
Coastal Plains through the morning hours. Still, with the
increasing 1000-500mb thickness values (thanks to the short wave
ridge), should see max temps a few degrees higher than yesterday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Warm front makes slow progress north through the region
overnight. In the mid and upper levels, the short wave ridge moves
off shore as the next short wave trough begins to approach the
region (but should remain west of the region through the overnight
hours.
In the wake of the warm front, moisture and warm air advection,
could lead to a few showers moving into our region, though the
best lift looks to stay west of our region through this time. &&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will move across the area from west to east on
Friday. There will be some instability across the area, and PW
values increase across the area to around 1.5 inches. Therefore
there will be the chance for thunderstorms to accompany the
rainfall that is likely. Some showers and thunderstorms could
produce a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. Winds behind the
front will likely become gusty around 15 to 20 mph. Drier weather
is expected overnight Friday behind the cold front.
On Saturday, another cold front will move across the area. There
will remain some instability across the area, although PW values
are forecast to be less. However, the dynamics with Saturday`s
front may be stronger with a stronger jet aloft. So while PW
values may be less, there could still be a period of moderate to
heavy rainfall. Gusty winds are expected behind the frontal
passage with gusts of 25 to 30 mph expected. Dry weather will
return overnight Saturday night, along with cooler temperatures.
An area of low pressure will strengthen to our north, while high
pressure begins to build to our west. This will keep a steady
breeze across the area overnight.
Low pressure will remain to our north on Sunday, with another
frontal boundary or surface trough expected to cross the area
later in the day. While PW values drop below 0.5 inches, which
would normally would indicate a precipitation free forecast, there
remains steep low level lapse rates, along with some higher RH
values in the low-mid levels. As a short wave/vorticity impulse
slides across the area, there could be some light sprinkles make
their way into our area during the day within the northwest flow.
Winds during the day could again gust 25 to 30 mph.
Yet another frontal boundary/surface trough is expected on
Monday, however, with limited lapse rates and moisture, no
precipitation is expected. However, an increase in clouds cover
and gusty afternoon winds of 25 to 30 mph are once again expected.
Dry weather will continue into Monday night as high pressure
builds briefly builds across the area.
From Tuesday through Wednesday, there are some timing differences
with the next weather system. An area of low pressure is forecast
to eventually lift through the Ohio River Valley and into New
England, while lifting a warm front across the area, then pushing
a cold front across the area. The GFS is faster than the ECMWF,
bring the warm front through Tuesday night/Wednesday and the cold
front Wednesday night/Thursday. The ECMWF is about 12-24 hours
slower. For now, we will continue with a chance of showers Tuesday
through Wednesday. The best probabilities will be focused around
individual short wave/vorticity impulses. There could be some
instability ahead of the cold front, so we`ve included thunder in
the Wednesday forecast for now.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Low clouds and fog are expected to affect the TAF sites
intermittently through 12Z, before slowly dissipating through the
morning hours. Most locations should return to VFR by 15Z. Once VFR
conditions return, expect them to continue through at least 06Z.
After 06z, low clouds and possibly light fog could move into the
region from the south as a warm front lifts through the region. In
addition, closer to 12Z, a few showers may move into the region from
the west. Either one of these factors could lead to MVFR, and
localized IFR conditions developing before 12Z.
OUTLOOK...
Friday...Showers and thunderstorms possible with a cold frontal
passage. MVFR or IFR CIGS and VSBYS likely. Gusty west-northwest
winds behind the front of 15-20 knots.
Friday night...VFR expected.
Saturday...Another cold frontal passage with additional showers and
thunderstorms which could lower CIGS and VSBYS to MVFR or IFR again.
Gusty southwest winds 20-25 knots early, becoming west-northwest
behind the cold front.
Saturday...VFR expected.
Sunday...Generally VFR. Scattered showers possible during the day.
Gusty west-northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.
Sunday night...VFR expected.
Monday...VFR with gusty west to northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below small craft advisory conditions.
Seas are expected to stay around 2 feet or less. Winds should remain
near or below 15 kt today and tonight, though direction will shift
from easterly or southeasterly today and this evening to southerly
overnight as a warm front lifts through the region.
OUTLOOK...
Friday-Saturday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Cold
frontal passages Friday and Saturday, which could cause winds to
gust around 20 knots at times.
Saturday night-Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely
through the period with cold frontal passages Sunday and Monday.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...Johnson
Short Term...Johnson
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Johnson/Robertson
Marine...Johnson/Robertson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
934 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over Canada will shift southeast across New England
tonight and offshore on Thursday. A warm front will approach from
the south Thursday night, then a cold front will cross the area west
to east on Friday. A second cold front will move through on
Saturday, followed by high pressure Sunday and Monday. Temperatures
will moderate Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure moves
offshore. A frontal boundary by midweek is then forecast to approach
from the south.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
An upper air analysis showed an elongated closed mid level low from
Lake Erie to Delaware. There is a decent short wave at 500 mb with
this feature as well with one centered near Delaware. The radar and
earlier visible satellite imagery showed an MCV was tied to the mid
level feature across Maryland to Delaware (this stemmed from
yesterday`s convection in Kentucky). This MCV is now spinning down
as radar trends are showing the showers shrinking in areal coverage
and also weakening considerably from a few hours ago. The upper air
analysis also showed much less 700-500 mb lift with this feature
now. As a result, the showers are expected to continue to weaken as
the feature slowly shifts eastward or dissipates. Some guidance such
as the HRRR and RAP want to develop some more showers though
overnight mainly south of Philadelphia. This may be associated with
the lingering 500 mb feature overhead. We are not all that sure how
much shower activity redevelops as the features look weak, therefore
we just left some slight chc pops overnight.
Otherwise, much more in the way of cloudiness across the southern
areas where some deeper moisture remains. Some drier air though
trying to undercut this from the north has eroded the lower clouds
some farther south. The flow is light therefore lower clouds should
fill back in some for the southern to central areas, with less cloud
cover still expected farther to the north. Some fog should develop
especially across the southern zones where rain has occurred however
the overall extent across the area will depend on the cloud cover.
The hourly grids were adjusted with the latest observations, then
the lamp/lav guidance was blended in. No major changes were made to
the low temperatures at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
This forecast was a 50 50 blend of the 12z/11 GFS/NAM mos. The
12z/11 ECMWF suggests that the temps might be 2F warmer than now
forecast. Some uncertainty regarding cloud cover is the reasoning
for not warming temperatures any further than now posted. Light
wind... trending easterly. Any pops are low and at this time kept a
dry forecast. The KI is lower and very little sign of any
instability burst nor do I see any significant lift factor.
Any fog and low clouds may be slow to lift on the Delmarva.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The first part of the extended period, i.e., Thursday night through
Sunday, features trofing aloft with several shortwaves and
associated frontal systems moving through the mid-Atlantic region.
These fronts will bring in cooler air and a chance for showers
through much of the weekend. On Monday the upper trof starts to
move away and the flow aloft becomes more zonal with possibly some
weak ridging. From early through mid-week temperatures will
moderate and the chance for showers will return by mid-week.
For Thursday night, the frontal boundary now to our south will be
approaching or moving through part of the forecast area as a warm
front. The forecast has increasing chance PoPs during the night and
also areas of fog as the front approaches.
On Friday the first cold front will push through from west to east
during mid day to mid-afternoon, preceded by showers. There is some
marginal instability forecast so a chance for isold/sctd t-storms
was also included. Precip should be over by evening along the coast
and by mid-afternoon over east PA.
The air mass behind the first front is not particularly cold so max
temps on Saturday should be only slightly cooler than Friday.
However a second cold front is forecast to cross the area on
Saturday with an associated shortwave trof aloft and some forcing
for UVV. This will bring more showers during the day with perhaps
an isolated t-storm also.
Sunday will be cool and breezy behind the second front with a closed
low aloft and strong cyclonic flow. This usually brings a good
amount of diurnal cu during the day especially north of PHL.
Going into next week, the upper low moves away and some ridging
aloft begins. High pressure moves overhead on Monday and then off
the coast on Tuesday. This will lead to moderating temperatures, but
also increasing moisture with SW return flow around the high.
Monday and Tuesday look dry but a chance of showers and
thunderstorms was included for Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
Tonight...Weakening showers end later this evening from near KILG to
near KACY southward, then perhaps a few more showers develop
overnight. VFR TO MVFR ceilings, with the greatest chance for
ceilings to remain VFR is at KABE and KTTN. There appears to be some
drier air arriving from the north this evening as the lower clouds
erode some, therefore the extent of MVFR ceilings through the night
is of lower confidence.
Some fog should develop especially later tonight at KMIV, KACY, KILG
and KRDG, however the extent is of lower confidence as it may depend
on the cloud cover. Light southwesterly winds, becoming light and
variable overall.
Thursday...Some local fog early, then any MVFR ceilings should
improve to VFR. Light and variable winds, becoming east then
southeast 4-8 knots in the afternoon.
OUTLOOK...
Thursday Night...MVFR/IFR conditions developing with low clouds,
fog and drizzle possible.
Friday...Showers and thunderstorms possible with temporary
MVFR/IFR conditions.
Friday Night...VFR conditions expected.
Saturday...Additional showers and thunderstorms possible with
temporary MVFR/IFR conditions. SW winds gusting 20-25 kt early,
becoming WNW later in the afternoon.
Sunday and Monday...Mostly VFR. Gusty NW winds 15-25 kt possible.
&&
.MARINE...
No headlines through Thursday. Light wind...generally 5 to 10 kt. Seas
at or below 3 feet (A persistent se 2 foot 9 second swell with
very little wind wave). Water temperatures are near normal...the
pool of anomalously warm water from the winter having shifted seaward
(eastward).
As a heads up: the rip current information will appear as a subcategory
within the marine section from this time forward (unless there is
a future change).
Rip Currents: Our Surf Zone Forecast (SRF) will begin May 20th,
530 am with twice a day forecasts through September (~530 AM
Day1, ~9 PM for the next day). Our forecasts will be updated at
any time we receive information that the forecast is significantly
in error, including the rip current formation risk (low, moderate,
high), which will be checked against the 1015 AM beach patrol
reports from June 13-Labor Day. This surf zone forecast page will
be news headlined on our home page www.weather.gov/phi for easy
access.
Also beginning May 20, on our homepage, we will host an Experimental
National Beach Forecast page which will have umbrellas locating
most of the beaches, whereby you can click and obtain beach specific
information. We think you`ll like it, though it may need some
adjusting of our crowded beach locations. There will be social
media announcements, both facebook and twitter. Additionally we
will post a nice 90 second science piece on rip current recognition.
OUTLOOK...
Thursday night through Saturday...Winds and seas expected to
remain below small craft advisory levels.
Saturday night and Sunday...NW winds may gust to 25 kt or higher.
Monday...Winds and seas below SCA levels.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...AMC/Gorse
Near Term...Gorse
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...AMC
Aviation...AMC/Gorse
Marine...AMC/Drag
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
315 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016
A mid-level upper trough was moving through Kansas early this
morning. The wave has very little moisture to work with so expect
mid clouds to exit the area this morning. After the shortwave
passes, plenty of large scale subsidence today and tonight. The
surface high is forecast to move through Kansas today with the ridge
axis cross our forecast area this evening. After the early morning
clouds depart, expect sunny skies and mild temperatures today. We
should mix fairly deep this afternoon and northwest winds should
reach the 10-20 mph range. The ridge passes this evening and
southwest boundary layer flow develops. With the surface ridge
across the southern plains late tonight, low-level moisture will be
slow to return.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016
On Friday, surface high pressure will have moved southeast of the
area as an area of low pressure located in central Nebraska begins
to move towards northeast Kansas. As this cold frontal boundary
passes, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. While
moisture is limited ahead of this surface front, a sharp gradient of
instability and 0-6 km shear of 40-50 kts may allow for some
stronger to severe storms to develop, mainly in east central Kansas.
Soundings indicate storms will be elevated with steep lapse rates
near the surface making strong winds and hail the main threats
Friday. By late Friday evening, any storms will be southeast of the
forecast area and cold air will begin to usher in behind the front.
Highs drop significantly on Saturday into the upper 50s and low 60s.
There is a small chance for showers early morning Saturday as a very
subtle wave passes over the area.
From here, the only dry time for the rest of the period looks to be
Saturday afternoon though Sunday morning. Models still do not have
a great handle on the overall pattern for next week, but it appears
that an upper level low over the northwest CONUS will be present
with waves ejecting over the central US. The best chances for
precipitation will be Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
VFR conditions should prevail due to mid clouds preventing good
radiational cooling and northwest winds advecting dry air into the
region.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Wolters
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
312 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu May 12 2016
Drier conditions are likely today and Thursday night as short range
models indicate an upper level shortwave trough lifting northeast
out of the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest during the period.
This will give way to a northwesterly flow aloft across the Western
High Plains while surface high pressure spreads eastward across the
region. This and a minimal amount of instabilty will limit precip
chances through Thursday night. Mild temperatures can be expected
today as surface high pressure across Colorado sinks southeast
into the Texas Panhandle, returning a west to southwesterly
downslope flow to western Kansas this afternoon. Considering there
will be little change to the overall air mass, look for highs back
up into the 70s(F) this afternoon. Slightly warmer low temperatures
are likely Thursday night as the surface high pushes further to
the southeast setting up a south to southwesterly flow to western
Kansas. Lows are expected to drop only into the 50s(F) as warmer
air is drawn northward into the region.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu May 12 2016
Precip chances pick up a little late Friday as medium range models
indicate an upper level shortwave trough cycling southeast across
the Upper Midwest, sending an attendant cold front southward
across the Central Plains. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Friday afternoon and evening as the frontal boundary
encounters increased moisture in central and eastern portions of
southwest Kansas. However, mid range model soundings show limited
instability while dynamics aloft remain less than favorable with a
strong jet staying well off to our northeast in the Upper Midwest.
This will limit the severe potential for any developing storms.
Precip chances will continue into the weekend as a westerly flow
aloft sets up across the high plains while an east to southeasterly
upslope flow develops across western Kansas on the back side of a
departing surface high.
A brief warming trend will continue Friday as a low level
southwesterly flow enhances warm air advection into southwest and
central Kansas ahead of an advancing cold front. The GFS and ECMWF
show H85 temperatures warming into the mid to upper teens(C)
across central Kansas to near, if not a little above 20C in
extreme southwest Kansas. Should see highs well up into the 70s(F)
across west central Kansas to the lower to mid 80s(F) in south
central Kansas where the front isn`t expected to push through
until late afternoon. Much cooler temperatures can be expected
Saturday as colder air surges southward into western Kansas in
wake of the strong cold frontal passage. The unseasonably cool
temperatures will persist through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu May 12 2016
Isolated showers will continue to slowly dissipate overnight while
drifting slowly east across western and central Kansas. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through late Thursday
afternoon. Light and variable winds will persist through the period
as a broad surface high moves out of the Colorado Rockies into the
Western High Plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 75 52 80 45 / 10 10 20 20
GCK 73 50 80 44 / 0 0 10 10
EHA 73 50 82 46 / 10 0 10 20
LBL 75 50 82 47 / 10 0 20 20
HYS 73 51 79 42 / 0 0 10 10
P28 78 53 82 49 / 10 10 30 30
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1142 PM MDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Wed May 11 2016
17Z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated trough in place
across northern plains, with clear closed circulation over North
Dakota. Of more importance to the Goodland CWA is the next short
wave trough moving over the four corners around the base of large
scale trough. With afternoon destabilization and period of large
scale ascent ahead of this trough, expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop over portions of Colorado and drift to
the east/southeast across the area. Overall instability fields are
limited, so aside from precip threat expect little overall impact.
Temps may dip down into the 30s in a few locations, but do not
expect any widespread frost or freeze conditions.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM MDT Wed May 11 2016
Thursday-Friday: Upper level ridging will build across the western
US with northwest flow developing across the northern plains. The
main upper level jet and mid level storm track will remain well
north of our cwa during these periods supporting dry conditions
through at least Friday afternoon. Temperatures will trend towards
seasonal to slightly above normal values with lee trough
redevelopment in eastern Colorado and southerly flow through the
boundary layer. Highs will generally be in the 70s, with a larger
spread on Friday as a cold front approaches from the north. Ahead of
this front stronger WAA may support highs around 80F.
Friday night-Wednesday: A cold front will push south through the
region and stall south of our region, with below normal temperatures
through these periods and increasing precip chances. Models are
showing the potential for a few showers in our northeast late Friday
night as a band of elevated frontogenesis moves through the area
behind the cold front. Deep moist advection is limited Friday night,
and this could limit potential coverage.
An upper level trough building over the west will eventually result
in SW flow along with southerly return from from the Gulf of Mexico
by Saturday night. This will set the stage for several possible
periods of showers and thunderstorms with a series of quick moving
shortwave troughs and possible closed h7/h5 upper lows moving over
our CWA. The strongest precip signal continues to be on
Monday/Monday night.
Despite the good model overlap in QPF the evolution of the upper
level pattern and impact on the surface pattern is still in
question with less run to run consistency beyond Sunday. Most
guidance is favoring a stationary front remaining outside (west
and south) of our cwa. On the other hand, the operational GFS is
showing this front lifting north as a warm front Monday and the
potential for a severe weather outbreak. I was comfortable with
PoPs inherited by latest blend and cooling temperature trend
considering the ensemble support and model consensus. I am just
not sold on the idea of more than just showers with embedded
thunderstorms or an elevated severe threat at this range.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1138 PM MDT Wed May 11 2016
VFR conditions are expected for the TAFs. light westerly winds are
expected for the period. during the evening the winds will turn to
the south.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1129 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
Cold front is finally exiting the area with only small lingering
chcs for convection across the far southeast counties this evening.
The upper trough will remain over the region with another wave
forecast to move across the region tonight with additional lift in
the 800-500mb layer. Lack of instability and a drier airmass should
keep any response to an increase in mid cloud overnight. The
increase in clouds along with some light mixing in the boundary
layer/drier air should help reduce any fog potential at least that
is the thinking at this time.
A dry and quiet day should prevail across the area on Thursday with
highs in the lower to middle 70s along with dewpoints in the 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
Thursday Night through Saturday...
With northwest flow aloft, surface ridge of high pressure moves off
to the southeast Thursday night. Low amplitude shortwave trough in
this northwest flow enters the Central Plains Friday with associated
cold front moving rapidly southeast. Moisture return ahead of this
system is limited, but lift along front strong enough to trigger
showers and thunderstorms by Friday afternoon. These should be out
of east central KS by Friday evening. Cooler temperatures are
expected for Friday night and Saturday...lows in the 40s and highs
in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Short range models all have some
very weak wave in continuing northwest flow producing lift across
the area on Saturday morning. Confidence is not high but have
placed some slight chance probabilities of showers in north central
KS during the morning.
Saturday Night through Wednesday...
A few showers are possible Saturday night through Sunday as the
right entrance region of a 500mb northern stream jet streak positions
over northeast Kansas. Model solutions diverge greatly next week
although it appears as a broad, low amplified trough across the
western United States will slowly push eastward toward the central
plains early next week. The best for chance for shower and
thunderstorm activity in the extended is Monday afternoon into
Tuesday morning as the main upper level wave ejects across the
central plains. Precipitation chances continue Tuesday and Wednesday
as the upper level trough slowly pushes east across the area.
Temperatures will slowly rebound to near 70 degrees by Wednesday
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
VFR conditions should prevail due to mid clouds preventing good
radiational cooling and northwest winds advecting dry air into the
region.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Baerg/GDP
AVIATION...Wolters
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
933 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 930 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
WV imagery indicates an upper level shortwave trough transitioning
eastward across the Northern and Central Plains. Meanwhile, an upper
level ridge of high pressure is moving ashore into northern and
southern California. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure
is building eastward across the Colorado Rockies into the Western
High Plains. A band of light to moderate rain showers are drifting
slowly east across west central and extreme southwest Kansas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
The upper level shortwave mentioned in the synopsis will move into
western Kansas this evening. This will create enough lift for the
thunderstorms across eastern Colorado to continue into western
Kansas. A few of these storms may become strong with gusts up to
50 mph and small hail being the main concern. I believe most of
the severe weather will remain south of the forecast area and in
the OK/TX panhandle. Otherwise cloudiness will increase this
evening with mostly cloudy skies. Drier air moves into the area
after midnight with decreased cloudiness from north to south.
Mostly clear skies are anticipated tomorrow as high pressure
dominated the area. Winds tonight look to blow from the northwest
shifting to more of a westerly direction tomorrow as the center of
high pressure starts to slide south of the area. As for temperatures,
lows tonight look to range from the lower 40s across portions of
west central Kansas to lower 50s across portions of south central
Kansas. Highs tomorrow are progged to range from the lower 70s
across portions of west central Kansas to upper 70s across south
central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
Mostly clear skies are expected Thursday night into Friday as a
ridge of high pressure builds above the Western United States. A
strong shortwave looks to move through the Northern Plains during
this time frame and help push a cold front through the area Friday
afternoon. Winds ahead of this front will generally be from the
southwest then shifting to the north behind the front. A few
thunderstorms may form along this front in the afternoon, mainly
south and east of Dodge City. These storms will quickly move south
of the area Friday evening with no precipitation expected Friday
night. A weak disturbance looks to move south of the area Saturday
bringing a slight chance of precipitation along the KS/OK border.
Otherwise expect increasing cloudiness through the day. A series
of disturbances are expected to affect the area for the remainder
of the weekend into the mid part of next week bringing a chance of
thunderstorms to the area each day. Confidence is low on the
timing of these disturbances at this time. As for temperatures,
highs look to reach to around 80 degrees Friday ahead of the
aforementioned cold front, then cool off to around 60 degrees this
weekend. Lows are expected to dip to around 50 degrees Thursday
night with low to mid 40s Friday and Saturday night. Highs rebound
into the 60s Monday and Tuesday with lows generally in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
Area of rain moving into the area over the next few hours will
gradually become more scattered into central Kansas through
midnight. lack of instability will preclude thunderstorms or
strong wind gusts, however a period of light to moderate RA can
be expected at gck and ddc, possibly hys after 03 UTC.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 49 76 52 80 / 50 10 10 20
GCK 47 75 50 80 / 70 10 0 10
EHA 46 74 50 82 / 90 10 0 10
LBL 48 75 50 82 / 60 10 10 10
HYS 48 74 51 77 / 30 0 10 10
P28 52 78 53 82 / 20 10 10 30
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Russell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
933 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 930 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
WV imagery indicates an upper level shortwave trough transitioning
eastward across the Northern and Central Plains. Meanwhile, an upper
level ridge of high pressure is moving ashore into northern and
southern California. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure
is building eastward across the Colorado Rockies into the Western
High Plains. A band of light to moderate rain showers are drifting
slowly east across west central and extreme southwest Kansas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
The upper level shortwave mentioned in the synopsis will move into
western Kansas this evening. This will create enough lift for the
thunderstorms across eastern Colorado to continue into western
Kansas. A few of these storms may become strong with gusts up to
50 mph and small hail being the main concern. I believe most of
the severe weather will remain south of the forecast area and in
the OK/TX panhandle. Otherwise cloudiness will increase this
evening with mostly cloudy skies. Drier air moves into the area
after midnight with decreased cloudiness from north to south.
Mostly clear skies are anticipated tomorrow as high pressure
dominated the area. Winds tonight look to blow from the northwest
shifting to more of a westerly direction tomorrow as the center of
high pressure starts to slide south of the area. As for temperatures,
lows tonight look to range from the lower 40s across portions of
west central Kansas to lower 50s across portions of south central
Kansas. Highs tomorrow are progged to range from the lower 70s
across portions of west central Kansas to upper 70s across south
central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
Mostly clear skies are expected Thursday night into Friday as a
ridge of high pressure builds above the Western United States. A
strong shortwave looks to move through the Northern Plains during
this time frame and help push a cold front through the area Friday
afternoon. Winds ahead of this front will generally be from the
southwest then shifting to the north behind the front. A few
thunderstorms may form along this front in the afternoon, mainly
south and east of Dodge City. These storms will quickly move south
of the area Friday evening with no precipitation expected Friday
night. A weak disturbance looks to move south of the area Saturday
bringing a slight chance of precipitation along the KS/OK border.
Otherwise expect increasing cloudiness through the day. A series
of disturbances are expected to affect the area for the remainder
of the weekend into the mid part of next week bringing a chance of
thunderstorms to the area each day. Confidence is low on the
timing of these disturbances at this time. As for temperatures,
highs look to reach to around 80 degrees Friday ahead of the
aforementioned cold front, then cool off to around 60 degrees this
weekend. Lows are expected to dip to around 50 degrees Thursday
night with low to mid 40s Friday and Saturday night. Highs rebound
into the 60s Monday and Tuesday with lows generally in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
Area of rain moving into the area over the next few hours will
gradually become more scattered into central Kansas through
midnight. lack of instability will preclude thunderstorms or
strong wind gusts, however a period of light to moderate RA can
be expected at gck and ddc, possibly hys after 03 UTC.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 49 76 52 80 / 50 10 10 20
GCK 47 75 50 80 / 70 10 0 10
EHA 46 74 50 82 / 90 10 0 10
LBL 48 75 50 82 / 60 10 10 10
HYS 48 74 51 77 / 30 0 10 10
P28 52 78 53 82 / 20 10 10 30
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Russell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
702 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
...AVIATION SECTION UPDATED...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
As of 17Z, a weak upper level ridge is found over the eastern
United States with another building over the eastern Pacific and
far western United States. An upper level long wave trough is in
place between these two features with an upper level low
positioned over central Canada and the Northern Plains. A weak
shortwave is currently moving into western Colorado. A 80+ knot
upper level jet is found south of this shortwave extending
eastward into the Central High Plains. A few upper level clouds
are present over portions of western and north central Kansas and
are expected to dissipate this afternoon. High pressure is
building across western Kansas this morning behind a cold front
that is currently extending from northwestern Missouri, through
eastern Kansas, then through central Oklahoma. As for expected
weather this afternoon, a few thunderstorms are progged to develop
across eastern Colorado and head towards western Kansas. This
activity is not expected to make it into the CWA before 5 PM.
Highs today look to range from the upper 60s across portions of
west central Kansas to upper 70s across portions of south central
Kansas. Winds will generally be from the north northeast this
afternoon shifting to the north northwest this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
The upper level shortwave mentioned in the synopsis will move into
western Kansas this evening. This will create enough lift for the
thunderstorms across eastern Colorado to continue into western
Kansas. A few of these storms may become strong with gusts up to
50 mph and small hail being the main concern. I believe most of
the severe weather will remain south of the forecast area and in
the OK/TX panhandle. Otherwise cloudiness will increase this
evening with mostly cloudy skies. Drier air moves into the area
after midnight with decreased cloudiness from north to south.
Mostly clear skies are anticipated tomorrow as high pressure
dominated the area. Winds tonight look to blow from the northwest
shifting to more of a westerly direction tomorrow as the center of
high pressure starts to slide south of the area. As for temperatures,
lows tonight look to range from the lower 40s across portions of
west central Kansas to lower 50s across portions of south central
Kansas. Highs tomorrow are progged to range from the lower 70s
across portions of west central Kansas to upper 70s across south
central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
Mostly clear skies are expected Thursday night into Friday as a
ridge of high pressure builds above the Western United States. A
strong shortwave looks to move through the Northern Plains during
this time frame and help push a cold front through the area Friday
afternoon. Winds ahead of this front will generally be from the
southwest then shifting to the north behind the front. A few
thunderstorms may form along this front in the afternoon, mainly
south and east of Dodge City. These storms will quickly move south
of the area Friday evening with no precipitation expected Friday
night. A weak disturbance looks to move south of the area Saturday
bringing a slight chance of precipitation along the KS/OK border.
Otherwise expect increasing cloudiness through the day. A series
of disturbances are expected to affect the area for the remainder
of the weekend into the mid part of next week bringing a chance of
thunderstorms to the area each day. Confidence is low on the
timing of these disturbances at this time. As for temperatures,
highs look to reach to around 80 degrees Friday ahead of the
aforementioned cold front, then cool off to around 60 degrees this
weekend. Lows are expected to dip to around 50 degrees Thursday
night with low to mid 40s Friday and Saturday night. Highs rebound
into the 60s Monday and Tuesday with lows generally in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
Area of rain moving into the area over the next few hours will
gradually become more scattered into central Kansas through
midnight. lack of instability will preclude thunderstorms or
strong wind gusts, however a period of light to moderate RA can
be expected at gck and ddc, possibly hys after 03 UTC.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 49 76 52 80 / 50 10 10 20
GCK 47 75 50 80 / 70 10 0 10
EHA 46 74 50 82 / 70 10 0 10
LBL 48 75 50 82 / 70 10 10 10
HYS 48 74 51 77 / 30 0 10 10
P28 52 78 53 82 / 20 10 10 30
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Russell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
623 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
Main forecast challenge is periodic precip/convective chances
through Saturday. At mid-afternoon, the airmass continues to
destabilize along the surface cold front across southeast Kansas.
It appears the cap may hold until the front moves just southeast
of the forecast area by dark. However will hold a modest chance
PoP in southeast Kansas this evening. If so, a few strong storms
will be possible until dark. Otherwise, cooler drier low level air
will advect south across the forecast area tonight. A trailing
upper shortwave over Colorado will scoot east across Kansas
tonight which may result in some showers over southwest Kansas,
though mainly just some mid-level clouds spreading east across
central and southern Kansas during the night. A rather pleasant
day expected Thursday with light winds and temperatures close to
seasonal average for mid-May. A significant upper trof will drop
southeast across the upper Midwest during Friday which will help
deepen the developing mean longwave across the Great Lakes into
Saturday. This will allow a rather cool Canadian airmass to advect
south across the Midwest and Plains. Latest guidance suggests the
Canadian cold front will move into central Kansas along the I-70
corridor by midday on Friday and into south central and southeast
Kansas Friday afternoon and evening. Despite limited low level
moisture return, still expect modest diurnal instability with max
temperatures near 80F and surface dew points into the lower 50s.
This should result in MLCAPE values around 1000 j/kg in the
presence of about 40 kts of deep layer shear. Convergence along
the southward advancing front should be sufficient to overcome
weakening cap for widely scattered high based convection lending
to a locally damaging wind and hail risk. Despite a cooler drier
low level regime in the wake of the front on Saturday, some mid-
level forcing and moisture may result in some widely scattered
showers and even some isolated thunder with max temperatures much
below seasonal climo.
Darmofal
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
The cool Canadian airmass will be slow to modify into early
next week with temperatures expected to average below climo. The
affects from upper troughing moving through the western Conus into
the Plains should result in better chances for measurable precip,
though details on daily trends are still uncertain.
KED
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
Low clouds over southeast Kansas will move east of the area later
this evening. Meanwhile...some mid-level clouds will stream across
the region later tonight with northerly winds persisting across
central and southern Kansas. Surface high pressure will build over
Kansas during the day on Thursday with VFR conditions expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 54 77 52 80 / 10 10 0 20
Hutchinson 51 77 52 80 / 10 10 0 30
Newton 52 75 52 79 / 10 10 0 30
ElDorado 52 76 52 79 / 10 10 0 20
Winfield-KWLD 53 77 52 80 / 10 10 0 10
Russell 48 76 53 78 / 10 0 0 20
Great Bend 48 76 52 79 / 10 0 0 20
Salina 50 76 52 79 / 10 0 0 30
McPherson 50 76 52 79 / 10 0 0 30
Coffeyville 56 77 51 80 / 40 10 0 10
Chanute 54 76 51 79 / 30 10 0 20
Iola 53 75 51 78 / 30 0 0 20
Parsons-KPPF 55 76 50 79 / 30 10 0 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...CDJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
520 PM MDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Wed May 11 2016
17Z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated trough in place
across northern plains, with clear closed circulation over North
Dakota. Of more importance to the Goodland CWA is the next short
wave trough moving over the four corners around the base of large
scale trough. With afternoon destabilization and period of large
scale ascent ahead of this trough, expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop over portions of Colorado and drift to
the east/southeast across the area. Overall instability fields are
limited, so aside from precip threat expect little overall impact.
Temps may dip down into the 30s in a few locations, but do not
expect any widespread frost or freeze conditions.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM MDT Wed May 11 2016
Thursday-Friday: Upper level ridging will build across the western
US with northwest flow developing across the northern plains. The
main upper level jet and mid level storm track will remain well
north of our cwa during these periods supporting dry conditions
through at least Friday afternoon. Temperatures will trend towards
seasonal to slightly above normal values with lee trough
redevelopment in eastern Colorado and southerly flow through the
boundary layer. Highs will generally be in the 70s, with a larger
spread on Friday as a cold front approaches from the north. Ahead of
this front stronger WAA may support highs around 80F.
Friday night-Wednesday: A cold front will push south through the
region and stall south of our region, with below normal temperatures
through these periods and increasing precip chances. Models are
showing the potential for a few showers in our northeast late Friday
night as a band of elevated frontogenesis moves through the area
behind the cold front. Deep moist advection is limited Friday night,
and this could limit potential coverage.
An upper level trough building over the west will eventually result
in SW flow along with southerly return from from the Gulf of Mexico
by Saturday night. This will set the stage for several possible
periods of showers and thunderstorms with a series of quick moving
shortwave troughs and possible closed h7/h5 upper lows moving over
our CWA. The strongest precip signal continues to be on
Monday/Monday night.
Despite the good model overlap in QPF the evolution of the upper
level pattern and impact on the surface pattern is still in
question with less run to run consistency beyond Sunday. Most
guidance is favoring a stationary front remaining outside (west
and south) of our cwa. On the other hand, the operational GFS is
showing this front lifting north as a warm front Monday and the
potential for a severe weather outbreak. I was comfortable with
PoPs inherited by latest blend and cooling temperature trend
considering the ensemble support and model consensus. I am just
not sold on the idea of more than just showers with embedded
thunderstorms or an elevated severe threat at this range.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 515 PM MDT Wed May 11 2016
VFR conditions expected for the TAFs. Main issue will be how
close will the showers, currently near the state line, be to KGLD
this evening. Am expecting the majority of the showers to be south
of the site. Otherwise westerly winds will be light through the
TAF for both sites.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
332 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain near the region through tonight. A
cold front will pass through the area Friday. A second stronger
front will pass through the region Saturday. High pressure returns
Sunday. Another stationary boundary is forecast to move over the
area early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Will start the day with solid deck of low stratus and areas of
fog/drizzle with marine layer hanging tough. As we head through
the day, will see gradual erosion of the low cloud deck from
southwest to northeast. With that, expecting a milder day across
the region, although warmest out in western areas where low clouds
and any remaining fog break the earliest. Highs will range from
the mid to upper 70s in western areas to around 70F from DC metro
on northeast. Highs will be reached late in the day for the cooler
locations.
As temperatures warm, will see an increase in instability, with
boundary layer CAPE values between 500-1000 J/KG developing by
later in the afternoon and evening across central/western
Virginia, West Virginia, and western Maryland. Very little wind
field exists, so while severe thunderstorms are not currently
anticipated, heavy rain may become an issue. Low level southeast
winds for much of the day, providing a light upslope flow into the
higher terrain, when combined with presence of lingering frontal
zone, will likely be enough to initiate convection over the
Potomac Highlands this afternoon. With little steering flow and
very low MBE velocities, showers and thunderstorms will likely be
slow moving. This, combined with precipitable water values up to
1.5 inches, and tall skinny CAPE profiles, indicates showers/thunderstorms
will be capable of producing heavy rain which may result in areas
of localized flooding. Increase in wind field later in the evening
(and therefore storm motion) and warm cloud depths less than
10,000 feet preclude greater threat. Will highlight in HWO.
Overnight, scattered showers and some thunderstorms continue with
lingering elevated instability. Redevelopment of patchy fog and
low stratus also may occur.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Active weather continues for Friday and Saturday. Cold front will
be on the doorstep Friday morning, and will cross the region in
the late morning/midday hours. This will bring additional showers
and thunderstorms to the region. While timing is not all that
conducive for severe threat, may see a few stronger thunderstorms
develop ahead of the front, especially across southern Maryland
where frontal passage will occur the latest, allowing for the
greatest instability to develop. Highs should top out in the 70s
for most.
Very brief ridging develops for Friday night, allowing for a dry
12 hour period before next front approaches during the day
Saturday.
Cold front looks to cross through the region on Saturday afternoon
and into the early evening hours. While CAPE values are not
expected to be significant with temperatures in the upper 60s/low
70s and dew points in the 50s, enough instability combined with strong
wind field and 0-6km shear of around 50 knots is enough to warrant
concern of a few low topped gusty showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
These showers/isolated storms will end Saturday evening with dry
weather expected for Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will build across the region Sunday into Monday,
providing the region a rare tranquil period. The upper jet will
still be overhead, and the region will be clipped by several 500 mb
vorts, so I am uneasy suggesting that it will be bright and sunny
the whole time, but at least it should be partly sunny. An
improvement. We will be experiencing cold air advection during this
time frame, so temperatures will be chilly by May standards. We
should see the beginning of a return flow during Monday, so high
temperatures likely will be a pinch warmer than on Sunday.
A warm front will be approaching by Tuesday. With it comes unsettled
conditions (read: more rain chances) through Wednesday. At this time
it looks like the forcing will be better Tuesday night into
Wednesday, so that will be when PoPs will be higher. There is
plenty of room for that to change.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR/LIFR conditions in low stratus and fog will continue into
this morning before gradually improving to MVFR and eventually VFR
this afternoon. Additional showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon and evening, but
scattered coverage and brief duration warrants only mention of
VCSH for now. IFR or lower conditions possible again tonight with
redevelopment of low stratus/fog deck. Winds generally light
southeast, less than 10 knots.
More showers/thunderstorms possible Friday with sub-VFR
conditions, before improving to VFR later Friday afternoon and
Friday night. Mainly VFR expected Saturday and Saturday night although
another round of gusty showers/possible thunderstorms possible
Saturday afternoon.
VFR flight conditions expected under high pressure Sunday and
Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA winds will continue today and tonight. A small craft
advisory may be needed both Friday and Saturday in gusty southwest
winds. In addition, periods of showers and thunderstorms will
affect the waters Friday and Saturday.
Small Craft Advisory conditions expected Sunday due to favorable
mixing and a good pressure gradient behind the cold front. That
gradient will relax Sunday afternoon and evening. Winds will be
lighter on Monday with high pressure nearby.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Longest stretch of consecutive days with measurable precipitation
(at least 0.01 inches):
DCA: 15 days (April 27th-May 11th 2016) Previous Record: 10 days
(July 17th-26th 1938 and August 12th-21st 1873).
BWI: 14 days (August 10th-23rd 1873) Recent stretch ended with
just a trace reported May 9th. Previous stretch was 12 days (April
27th - May 8th 2016).
IAD: Only recorded trace amounts on May 4th and April 29th,
keeping the current stretch at 7 days (May 5th-May 11th 2016).
The record longest streak is 9 days set in multiple years
(2015/2009/2003/1975/1968).
Longest stretch of consecutive days with any rainfall
(including trace amounts):
DCA: 17 days (March 31st-April 16th 1935) Current stretch: 15
days (April 27th-May 11th 2016).
BWI: 17 days (March 31st-April 16th 1935)
Current stretch: 15 days (April 27th-May 11th 2016).
IAD: 16 days (April 26th-May 10th 2016) Broke previous records:
May 5th-17th 1989 and June 13th-25th 1972.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...MM
Near Term...MM
Short Term...MM
Long Term...HTS
Aviation...MM/HTS
Marine...MM/HTS
Climate...WFO LWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
209 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary drops into the Carolinas by later tonight into
Thursday morning. The front lifts north as a warm front later
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. A cold front approaches
from the west early Friday and crosses the region Friday afternoon
and evening.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Convection waning acrs se va and ne nc attm...while isold shras
having difficulty spreading se fm the mtns. Made adjustments
(down) to most pops/wx for the overnight...mnly 20-25% along srn
and wrn tiers in fa...to less than 15% pops elsw. Otrw...bkn-ovc
cigs (aob 10-15kft) over most va/md counties in fa. With boundary
acrs srn va settling s through the ngt...expecting lwrg cigs into
ne nc. Fog will likely be more limited than that of last ngt/early
this morning. Lows ranging through the u50s-l60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The boundary is progged to be over the Carolinas
Thursday morning...and then begin to lift nwd as a warm front later
in the afternoon. Shortwave ridging in the morning slides offshore
by afternoon as a shortwave trough approaches from the west later in
the afternoon. 20-40% POPS for showers/tstms have been introduced
west of the Bay for later in the afternoon into the evening. Highs
Thursday range from the mid 70s north...to the upper 70s/around 80
south.
A more potent trough approaches from the west Thursday night
amplifying the flow and continuing to push the warm front nwd. the
flow becomes southwesterly with pw values reaching ~1.5". The chc
for showers increases later Thursday night especially over the
Piedmont as pressure falls ahead of the trough/associated cold front
induce low-level convergence. Mild with lows generally in the
low/mid 60s. The cold front moves into the Piedmont Friday morning,
with the general model consensus pushing the front to ern portions
by afternoon. Likely pops will be maintained for Friday, with tstms
possible in the afternoon. Theta-e advection and dewpoints in the
60s will provide some instability to go along with ~30kt of deep
layer shear. If enough sfc heating occurs a few stronger tstms are
possible. Highs range from the mid 70s north, to near 80 south.
The front pushes offshore Friday night with POPS diminishing quickly
along the coast in the evening. Cooler and drier with lows in the
mid 50s under a partly cloudy to mostly clear sky. A secondary front
approaches from the nw Saturday. Partly to mostly sunny early with
increasing clouds in the afternoon. A chc for showers/tstms arrives
in the afternoon, mainly north. Highs once again in the mid 70s to
around 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front will push out to sea sat ngt...with hi pres bldng twd
the area fm the w. The hi will bld right ovr the region mon morng
then slides off the coast late mon/mon ngt. Will have dry wx acrs
the area sat ngt into mon ngt. A warm front will then lift thru
the region tue aftn thru wed morng...bringing a chc for showers
and possibly a tstm. A cold front will approach fm the w wed ngt
maintaining a chc for pcpn. Lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s sat ngt
and sun ngt...in the lwr to mid 50s mon ngt...and in the mid 50s
to lwr 60s tue ngt. Highs in the mid 60s to near 70 sun...in the
mid 60s to lwr 70s mon...in the upr 60s to mid 70s tue...and in
the 70s wed.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A diffuse frontal boundary is south of the TAF sites... extending
from eastern North Carolina then extending to the northwest into
West Virginia to northern Illinois. The front will remain stationary
through early this afternoon then begin to move to the north and
northeast. The front will be located well to the north by Friday
morning. A cold front will move from west to east across the region
late Friday.
As of 05z...IFR and LIFR conditions prevail at all the TAF sites.
Visbilities at some location are quite variable, particurly at ORF
where it has varied from one mile to seven miles during the past
hour. Expect LIFR cigs overnight with mainly IFR visibilities.
Conditions will again be slow to improve on Thursday morning with
most locations becoming VFR or MVFR by early afternoon. No
sginficant areas of precipitation are expected through this
afternoon. The chance for showers increase tonight with a likelihood
for showers and thunderstorms as the front moves through on Friday.
OUTLOOK...There may be some IFR early Friday morning but it is not
expected to be as widespread as this morning or Wednesday morning.
Following the frontal passage...the weather generally improves.
However...a secondary cold front may bring additional showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Dry and VFR are forecast Sunday
and Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
1 AM Update...A dense fog advisory was issued for the Chesapeake
Bay south of New Point Comfort and the Coastal Waters north of the
Virginia North Carolina border...in effect through 10 AM Thursday
morning. A couple of reports indicate the visiblity is down to a
few hundred feet or less near the mouth of the Bay. It appears
from webcams around Midnight indicate that the visibility in the
rivers is much better. Will monitor in case conditions warrant
extneding the advisory to other portions of the marine area.
A stationary frontal boundary lingers near the va/nc border. This
front will remain near the border or drift south a bit into nrn nc
tngt. The front will lift nne of the area as a warm front thu ngt
into fri morng. A cold front will then cross the wtrs fri aftn into
fri eveng. A secondary front then moves acrs the area sat aftn
into sat eveng. No headlines in the short term tngt thru fri.
Onshore flo arnd 10 kt or less expected thru thu ngt...with waves
1-2 ft and seas 2 to 3 ft. a sw or w flo arnd 10 kt or less then
expected fri thru sat...then nw or w 15 kt or less sat ngt into
sun behind the secondary front. waves 1 to 3 ft and seas 2 to 4
ft.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ632-634-
650-652-654-656.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB/SAM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG/LSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
209 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary drops into the Carolinas by later tonight into
Thursday morning. The front lifts north as a warm front later
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. A cold front approaches
from the west early Friday and crosses the region Friday afternoon
and evening.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Convection waning acrs se va and ne nc attm...while isold shras
having difficulty spreading se fm the mtns. Made adjustments
(down) to most pops/wx for the overnight...mnly 20-25% along srn
and wrn tiers in fa...to less than 15% pops elsw. Otrw...bkn-ovc
cigs (aob 10-15kft) over most va/md counties in fa. With boundary
acrs srn va settling s through the ngt...expecting lwrg cigs into
ne nc. Fog will likely be more limited than that of last ngt/early
this morning. Lows ranging through the u50s-l60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The boundary is progged to be over the Carolinas
Thursday morning...and then begin to lift nwd as a warm front later
in the afternoon. Shortwave ridging in the morning slides offshore
by afternoon as a shortwave trough approaches from the west later in
the afternoon. 20-40% POPS for showers/tstms have been introduced
west of the Bay for later in the afternoon into the evening. Highs
Thursday range from the mid 70s north...to the upper 70s/around 80
south.
A more potent trough approaches from the west Thursday night
amplifying the flow and continuing to push the warm front nwd. the
flow becomes southwesterly with pw values reaching ~1.5". The chc
for showers increases later Thursday night especially over the
Piedmont as pressure falls ahead of the trough/associated cold front
induce low-level convergence. Mild with lows generally in the
low/mid 60s. The cold front moves into the Piedmont Friday morning,
with the general model consensus pushing the front to ern portions
by afternoon. Likely pops will be maintained for Friday, with tstms
possible in the afternoon. Theta-e advection and dewpoints in the
60s will provide some instability to go along with ~30kt of deep
layer shear. If enough sfc heating occurs a few stronger tstms are
possible. Highs range from the mid 70s north, to near 80 south.
The front pushes offshore Friday night with POPS diminishing quickly
along the coast in the evening. Cooler and drier with lows in the
mid 50s under a partly cloudy to mostly clear sky. A secondary front
approaches from the nw Saturday. Partly to mostly sunny early with
increasing clouds in the afternoon. A chc for showers/tstms arrives
in the afternoon, mainly north. Highs once again in the mid 70s to
around 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front will push out to sea sat ngt...with hi pres bldng twd
the area fm the w. The hi will bld right ovr the region mon morng
then slides off the coast late mon/mon ngt. Will have dry wx acrs
the area sat ngt into mon ngt. A warm front will then lift thru
the region tue aftn thru wed morng...bringing a chc for showers
and possibly a tstm. A cold front will approach fm the w wed ngt
maintaining a chc for pcpn. Lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s sat ngt
and sun ngt...in the lwr to mid 50s mon ngt...and in the mid 50s
to lwr 60s tue ngt. Highs in the mid 60s to near 70 sun...in the
mid 60s to lwr 70s mon...in the upr 60s to mid 70s tue...and in
the 70s wed.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A diffuse frontal boundary is south of the TAF sites... extending
from eastern North Carolina then extending to the northwest into
West Virginia to northern Illinois. The front will remain stationary
through early this afternoon then begin to move to the north and
northeast. The front will be located well to the north by Friday
morning. A cold front will move from west to east across the region
late Friday.
As of 05z...IFR and LIFR conditions prevail at all the TAF sites.
Visbilities at some location are quite variable, particurly at ORF
where it has varied from one mile to seven miles during the past
hour. Expect LIFR cigs overnight with mainly IFR visibilities.
Conditions will again be slow to improve on Thursday morning with
most locations becoming VFR or MVFR by early afternoon. No
sginficant areas of precipitation are expected through this
afternoon. The chance for showers increase tonight with a likelihood
for showers and thunderstorms as the front moves through on Friday.
OUTLOOK...There may be some IFR early Friday morning but it is not
expected to be as widespread as this morning or Wednesday morning.
Following the frontal passage...the weather generally improves.
However...a secondary cold front may bring additional showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Dry and VFR are forecast Sunday
and Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
1 AM Update...A dense fog advisory was issued for the Chesapeake
Bay south of New Point Comfort and the Coastal Waters north of the
Virginia North Carolina border...in effect through 10 AM Thursday
morning. A couple of reports indicate the visiblity is down to a
few hundred feet or less near the mouth of the Bay. It appears
from webcams around Midnight indicate that the visibility in the
rivers is much better. Will monitor in case conditions warrant
extneding the advisory to other portions of the marine area.
A stationary frontal boundary lingers near the va/nc border. This
front will remain near the border or drift south a bit into nrn nc
tngt. The front will lift nne of the area as a warm front thu ngt
into fri morng. A cold front will then cross the wtrs fri aftn into
fri eveng. A secondary front then moves acrs the area sat aftn
into sat eveng. No headlines in the short term tngt thru fri.
Onshore flo arnd 10 kt or less expected thru thu ngt...with waves
1-2 ft and seas 2 to 3 ft. a sw or w flo arnd 10 kt or less then
expected fri thru sat...then nw or w 15 kt or less sat ngt into
sun behind the secondary front. waves 1 to 3 ft and seas 2 to 4
ft.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ632-634-
650-652-654-656.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB/SAM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG/LSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
142 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will persist until the
passage of a Friday morning cold front. Another cold front will
maintain shower chances Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
No major updates at present. Main issue overnight will be extent
and density of fog development. Complicating factors include the
modestly stirred layer just above the calm surface layer as well
as advancing cirrus blowoff from MCS to our southwest. For
now, the thinking is that visibilities will vary somewhat in many
locations overnight, which would preclude the need for dense fog
advisories. Persistence of sub half-mile visibilities would of
course require an issuance. Minor tweaks were made through 12z
otherwise. CL
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Precipitation chances will continue Thursday as a warm front lifts
over the area. ridging will keep activity from developing much through
the morning, but increasing dewpoints and a shortwave ahead the
approaching cold front along with daytime heating will result in
development by mid- afternoon. Scattered showers and storm
chances will continue thursday night as the cold front crosses the
region. The best chance for stronger storms will be over eastern
Ohio zones late afternoon through early evening.
The evening / overnight timing of frontal passage is unfavorable
for continued thunderstorm activity through the night and expect
mainly showers along the front.
Friday will be largely dry except for a slight chance of seeing
development over higher elevations east of Pittsburgh where
moisture lingers longest. Another cold front will cross the region
Saturday morning bringing another round of rain and cooler
temperatures. With latest M-climate return interval values for
heights and temperatures aloft ranging between 10 and 30, daytime
max temperatures were forecast to be 15 degrees below normal on
average.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A broad east coast trough is expected to result in well below
average temperatures and low shower chances through late in the
weekend. Ridging is progged to briefly build in Monday before a
midwestern trough begins it`s slow approach through mid week,
returning shower chances to the forecast. After Sunday,
temperatures should gradually nudge closer to seasonal levels
through mid week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The main issue overnight will be areas of fog which will vary in
extent and density across the area. Expect most locations to at
least touch the IFR category at times through sunrise, while
areas near and southwest of a MGW/HLG/PHD line will spend some
time in the LIFR category. Stirring above the calm surface layer
and advancing high clouds will help to cause variance in
visibilityvalues.
VFR conditions will return once the fog dissipates. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected starting midday on
Thursday. Brief restrictions are possible with these but did not
include in TAF yet. More organized precipitation is expected to
arrive after 21Z as a cold front approaches from the west.
Conditions will deteriorate to MVFR towards midnight.
CL
.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Periodic restrictions are expected through Sunday with the
approach and passage of a series of cold fronts, and subsequent
upper troughing.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1224 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will persist until the
passage of a Friday morning cold front. Another cold front will
maintain shower chances Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
No major updates at present. Main issue overnight will be extent
and density of fog development. Complicating factors include the
modestly stirred layer just above the calm surface layer as well
as advancing cirrus blowoff from MCS to our southwest. For
now, the thinking is that visibilities will vary somewhat in many
locations overnight, which would preclude the need for dense fog
advisories. Persistence of sub half-mile visibilities would of
course require an issuance. Minor tweaks were made through 12z
otherwise. CL
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Precipitation chances will continue Thursday as a warm front lifts
over the area. ridging will keep activity from developing much through
the morning, but increasing dewpoints and a shortwave ahead the
approaching cold front along with daytime heating will result in
development by mid- afternoon. Scattered showers and storm
chances will continue thursday night as the cold front crosses the
region. The best chance for stronger storms will be over eastern
Ohio zones late afternoon through early evening.
The evening / overnight timing of frontal passage is unfavorable
for continued thunderstorm activity through the night and expect
mainly showers along the front.
Friday will be largely dry except for a slight chance of seeing
development over higher elevations east of Pittsburgh where
moisture lingers longest. Another cold front will cross the region
Saturday morning bringing another round of rain and cooler
temperatures. With latest M-climate return interval values for
heights and temperatures aloft ranging between 10 and 30, daytime
max temperatures were forecast to be 15 degrees below normal on
average.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A broad east coast trough is expected to result in well below
average temperatures and low shower chances through late in the
weekend. Ridging is progged to briefly build in Monday before a
midwestern trough begins it`s slow approach through mid week,
returning shower chances to the forecast. After Sunday,
temperatures should gradually nudge closer to seasonal levels
through mid week.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Once the the showers clear early this evening...a mainly vfr
forecast is expected into the late night hours. The exceptions
will be at locations which saw heavier rain...mainly at HLG and
MGW. A combination of rain...decreasing cloud cover...and higher
surface dewpoints...will provide the threat for fog to develop
quickly at these sites and possibly lower vis into the lifr cat by
early Thursday morning. Elsewhere...fog is expected to develop at
all ports with varying restrictions. Based much of the forecast on
this morning`s observed conditions to put together the forecast.
Fog will dissipate during the morning hours...allowing for a
return to vfr conditions. The threat for showers/storms will
increase Thursday afternoon.
.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Periodic restrictions are expected through Sunday with the
approach and passage of a series of cold fronts, and subsequent
upper troughing.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1224 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will persist until the
passage of a Friday morning cold front. Another cold front will
maintain shower chances Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
No major updates at present. Main issue overnight will be extent
and density of fog development. Complicating factors include the
modestly stirred layer just above the calm surface layer as well
as advancing cirrus blowoff from MCS to our southwest. For
now, the thinking is that visibilities will vary somewhat in many
locations overnight, which would preclude the need for dense fog
advisories. Persistence of sub half-mile visibilities would of
course require an issuance. Minor tweaks were made through 12z
otherwise. CL
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Precipitation chances will continue Thursday as a warm front lifts
over the area. ridging will keep activity from developing much through
the morning, but increasing dewpoints and a shortwave ahead the
approaching cold front along with daytime heating will result in
development by mid- afternoon. Scattered showers and storm
chances will continue thursday night as the cold front crosses the
region. The best chance for stronger storms will be over eastern
Ohio zones late afternoon through early evening.
The evening / overnight timing of frontal passage is unfavorable
for continued thunderstorm activity through the night and expect
mainly showers along the front.
Friday will be largely dry except for a slight chance of seeing
development over higher elevations east of Pittsburgh where
moisture lingers longest. Another cold front will cross the region
Saturday morning bringing another round of rain and cooler
temperatures. With latest M-climate return interval values for
heights and temperatures aloft ranging between 10 and 30, daytime
max temperatures were forecast to be 15 degrees below normal on
average.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A broad east coast trough is expected to result in well below
average temperatures and low shower chances through late in the
weekend. Ridging is progged to briefly build in Monday before a
midwestern trough begins it`s slow approach through mid week,
returning shower chances to the forecast. After Sunday,
temperatures should gradually nudge closer to seasonal levels
through mid week.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Once the the showers clear early this evening...a mainly vfr
forecast is expected into the late night hours. The exceptions
will be at locations which saw heavier rain...mainly at HLG and
MGW. A combination of rain...decreasing cloud cover...and higher
surface dewpoints...will provide the threat for fog to develop
quickly at these sites and possibly lower vis into the lifr cat by
early Thursday morning. Elsewhere...fog is expected to develop at
all ports with varying restrictions. Based much of the forecast on
this morning`s observed conditions to put together the forecast.
Fog will dissipate during the morning hours...allowing for a
return to vfr conditions. The threat for showers/storms will
increase Thursday afternoon.
.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Periodic restrictions are expected through Sunday with the
approach and passage of a series of cold fronts, and subsequent
upper troughing.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
959 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary drops into the Carolinas by later tonight into
Thursday morning. The front lifts north as a warm front later
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. A cold front approaches
from the west early Friday and crosses the region Friday afternoon
and evening.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Convection waning acrs se va and ne nc attm...while isold shras
having difficulty spreading se fm the mtns. Made adjustments
(down) to most pops/wx for the overnight...mnly 20-25% along srn
and wrn tiers in fa...to less than 15% pops elsw. Otrw...bkn-ovc
cigs (aob 10-15kft) over most va/md counties in fa. With boundary
acrs srn va settling s through the ngt...expecting lwrg cigs into
ne nc. Fog will likely be more limited than that of last ngt/early
this morning. Lows ranging through the u50s-l60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The boundary is progged to be over the Carolinas
Thursday morning...and then begin to lift nwd as a warm front later
in the afternoon. Shortwave ridging in the morning slides offshore
by afternoon as a shortwave trough approaches from the west later in
the afternoon. 20-40% POPS for showers/tstms have been introduced
west of the Bay for later in the afternoon into the evening. Highs
Thursday range from the mid 70s north...to the upper 70s/around 80
south.
A more potent trough approaches from the west Thursday night
amplifying the flow and continuing to push the warm front nwd. the
flow becomes southwesterly with pw values reaching ~1.5". The chc
for showers increases later Thursday night especially over the
Piedmont as pressure falls ahead of the trough/associated cold front
induce low-level convergence. Mild with lows generally in the
low/mid 60s. The cold front moves into the Piedmont Friday morning,
with the general model consensus pushing the front to ern portions
by afternoon. Likely pops will be maintained for Friday, with tstms
possible in the afternoon. Theta-e advection and dewpoints in the
60s will provide some instability to go along with ~30kt of deep
layer shear. If enough sfc heating occurs a few stronger tstms are
possible. Highs range from the mid 70s north, to near 80 south.
The front pushes offshore Friday night with POPS diminishing quickly
along the coast in the evening. Cooler and drier with lows in the
mid 50s under a partly cloudy to mostly clear sky. A secondary front
approaches from the nw Saturday. Partly to mostly sunny early with
increasing clouds in the afternoon. A chc for showers/tstms arrives
in the afternoon, mainly north. Highs once again in the mid 70s to
around 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front will push out to sea sat ngt...with hi pres bldng twd
the area fm the w. The hi will bld right ovr the region mon morng
then slides off the coast late mon/mon ngt. Will have dry wx acrs
the area sat ngt into mon ngt. A warm front will then lift thru
the region tue aftn thru wed morng...bringing a chc for showers
and possibly a tstm. A cold front will approach fm the w wed ngt
maintaining a chc for pcpn. Lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s sat ngt
and sun ngt...in the lwr to mid 50s mon ngt...and in the mid 50s
to lwr 60s tue ngt. Highs in the mid 60s to near 70 sun...in the
mid 60s to lwr 70s mon...in the upr 60s to mid 70s tue...and in
the 70s wed.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A diffuse frontal boundary remains near the VA/NC border early
this evening. This boundary will move little over the next 24
hours. Scattered showers/tstms persist over NE NC and far SERN VA.
these are expected to dissipate over the next couple of hours with
the loss of daytime heating.
Overall...there has been no change in airmass over the last 24
hours...with moist maritime airmass well entrenched over the
area. Thus...a repeat of last night is likely...with considerable
ifr/lifr at the terminals. Have not gone with as much fog...but
would not be surprised that visibility gets below 1/2 mile at
times. Expect a gradual erosion of the low clouds during the mid
to late morning tomorrow...and think vfr conditions will prevail
after the 16Z/17Z time frame. not expecting a lot of precipitation
after this evening...although isolated/scattered showers/tstms
cannot be ruled out Thursday afternoon/evening.
Outlook...periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected
thursday night through Friday afternoon...when a cold front moves
into/through the region. This front will usher in somewhat drier
air Friday night/Saturday. However...a second strong front moves
through Saturday afternoon/evening...with isolated/scattered
showers/tstms accompanying that front. drier/cooler airmass moves
in for Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
A stationary frontal boundary lingers near the va/nc border. This
front will remain near the border or drift south a bit into nrn nc
tngt. The front will lift nne of the area as a warm front thu ngt
into fri morng. A cold front will then cross the wtrs fri aftn into
fri eveng. A secondary front then moves acrs the area sat aftn
into sat eveng. No headlines in the short term tngt thru fri.
Onshore flo arnd 10 kt or less expected thru thu ngt...with waves
1-2 ft and seas 2 to 3 ft. a sw or w flo arnd 10 kt or less then
expected fri thru sat...then nw or w 15 kt or less sat ngt into
sun behind the secondary front. waves 1 to 3 ft and seas 2 to 4
ft.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB/SAM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JDM/WRS
MARINE...TMG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
934 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over Canada will shift southeast across New England
tonight and offshore on Thursday. A warm front will approach from
the south Thursday night, then a cold front will cross the area west
to east on Friday. A second cold front will move through on
Saturday, followed by high pressure Sunday and Monday. Temperatures
will moderate Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure moves
offshore. A frontal boundary by midweek is then forecast to approach
from the south.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
An upper air analysis showed an elongated closed mid level low from
Lake Erie to Delaware. There is a decent short wave at 500 mb with
this feature as well with one centered near Delaware. The radar and
earlier visible satellite imagery showed an MCV was tied to the mid
level feature across Maryland to Delaware (this stemmed from
yesterday`s convection in Kentucky). This MCV is now spinning down
as radar trends are showing the showers shrinking in areal coverage
and also weakening considerably from a few hours ago. The upper air
analysis also showed much less 700-500 mb lift with this feature
now. As a result, the showers are expected to continue to weaken as
the feature slowly shifts eastward or dissipates. Some guidance such
as the HRRR and RAP want to develop some more showers though
overnight mainly south of Philadelphia. This may be associated with
the lingering 500 mb feature overhead. We are not all that sure how
much shower activity redevelops as the features look weak, therefore
we just left some slight chc pops overnight.
Otherwise, much more in the way of cloudiness across the southern
areas where some deeper moisture remains. Some drier air though
trying to undercut this from the north has eroded the lower clouds
some farther south. The flow is light therefore lower clouds should
fill back in some for the southern to central areas, with less cloud
cover still expected farther to the north. Some fog should develop
especially across the southern zones where rain has occurred however
the overall extent across the area will depend on the cloud cover.
The hourly grids were adjusted with the latest observations, then
the lamp/lav guidance was blended in. No major changes were made to
the low temperatures at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
This forecast was a 50 50 blend of the 12z/11 GFS/NAM mos. The
12z/11 ECMWF suggests that the temps might be 2F warmer than now
forecast. Some uncertainty regarding cloud cover is the reasoning
for not warming temperatures any further than now posted. Light
wind... trending easterly. Any pops are low and at this time kept a
dry forecast. The KI is lower and very little sign of any
instability burst nor do I see any significant lift factor.
Any fog and low clouds may be slow to lift on the Delmarva.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The first part of the extended period, i.e., Thursday night through
Sunday, features trofing aloft with several shortwaves and
associated frontal systems moving through the mid-Atlantic region.
These fronts will bring in cooler air and a chance for showers
through much of the weekend. On Monday the upper trof starts to
move away and the flow aloft becomes more zonal with possibly some
weak ridging. From early through mid-week temperatures will
moderate and the chance for showers will return by mid-week.
For Thursday night, the frontal boundary now to our south will be
approaching or moving through part of the forecast area as a warm
front. The forecast has increasing chance PoPs during the night and
also areas of fog as the front approaches.
On Friday the first cold front will push through from west to east
during mid day to mid-afternoon, preceded by showers. There is some
marginal instability forecast so a chance for isold/sctd t-storms
was also included. Precip should be over by evening along the coast
and by mid-afternoon over east PA.
The air mass behind the first front is not particularly cold so max
temps on Saturday should be only slightly cooler than Friday.
However a second cold front is forecast to cross the area on
Saturday with an associated shortwave trof aloft and some forcing
for UVV. This will bring more showers during the day with perhaps
an isolated t-storm also.
Sunday will be cool and breezy behind the second front with a closed
low aloft and strong cyclonic flow. This usually brings a good
amount of diurnal cu during the day especially north of PHL.
Going into next week, the upper low moves away and some ridging
aloft begins. High pressure moves overhead on Monday and then off
the coast on Tuesday. This will lead to moderating temperatures, but
also increasing moisture with SW return flow around the high.
Monday and Tuesday look dry but a chance of showers and
thunderstorms was included for Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
Tonight...Weakening showers end later this evening from near KILG to
near KACY southward, then perhaps a few more showers develop
overnight. VFR TO MVFR ceilings, with the greatest chance for
ceilings to remain VFR is at KABE and KTTN. There appears to be some
drier air arriving from the north this evening as the lower clouds
erode some, therefore the extent of MVFR ceilings through the night
is of lower confidence.
Some fog should develop especially later tonight at KMIV, KACY, KILG
and KRDG, however the extent is of lower confidence as it may depend
on the cloud cover. Light southwesterly winds, becoming light and
variable overall.
Thursday...Some local fog early, then any MVFR ceilings should
improve to VFR. Light and variable winds, becoming east then
southeast 4-8 knots in the afternoon.
OUTLOOK...
Thursday Night...MVFR/IFR conditions developing with low clouds,
fog and drizzle possible.
Friday...Showers and thunderstorms possible with temporary
MVFR/IFR conditions.
Friday Night...VFR conditions expected.
Saturday...Additional showers and thunderstorms possible with
temporary MVFR/IFR conditions. SW winds gusting 20-25 kt early,
becoming WNW later in the afternoon.
Sunday and Monday...Mostly VFR. Gusty NW winds 15-25 kt possible.
&&
.MARINE...
No headlines through Thursday. Light wind...generally 5 to 10 kt. Seas
at or below 3 feet (A persistent se 2 foot 9 second swell with
very little wind wave). Water temperatures are near normal...the
pool of anomalously warm water from the winter having shifted seaward
(eastward).
As a heads up: the rip current information will appear as a subcategory
within the marine section from this time forward (unless there is
a future change).
Rip Currents: Our Surf Zone Forecast (SRF) will begin May 20th,
530 am with twice a day forecasts through September (~530 AM
Day1, ~9 PM for the next day). Our forecasts will be updated at
any time we receive information that the forecast is significantly
in error, including the rip current formation risk (low, moderate,
high), which will be checked against the 1015 AM beach patrol
reports from June 13-Labor Day. This surf zone forecast page will
be news headlined on our home page www.weather.gov/phi for easy
access.
Also beginning May 20, on our homepage, we will host an Experimental
National Beach Forecast page which will have umbrellas locating
most of the beaches, whereby you can click and obtain beach specific
information. We think you`ll like it, though it may need some
adjusting of our crowded beach locations. There will be social
media announcements, both facebook and twitter. Additionally we
will post a nice 90 second science piece on rip current recognition.
OUTLOOK...
Thursday night through Saturday...Winds and seas expected to
remain below small craft advisory levels.
Saturday night and Sunday...NW winds may gust to 25 kt or higher.
Monday...Winds and seas below SCA levels.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...AMC/Gorse
Near Term...Gorse
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...AMC
Aviation...AMC/Gorse
Marine...AMC/Drag
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
851 AM PDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer today with low clouds likely clearing out of inland areas
by early afternoon and some clouds possibly sticking to the
beaches for most of the day. A deepening marine layer and slow
cooling trend will develop Friday through Sunday as a trough moves
by to the north. Night and morning low clouds will reach far
inland this weekend, and drizzle may be possible Sunday night and
Monday morning west of the mountains. The trough will also create
gusty westerly winds over the mountains and deserts Late Saturday
through Sunday night. A slow warming trend will develop Monday
through Thursday as high pressure aloft strengthens.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
Morning visible satellite imagery shows overcast marine layer
stratus about 15-25 miles inland this morning, which is not as far
inland as it was yesterday morning. Looking at the 12Z Miramar
sounding, there is a 10 degree inversion at around 1800 feet
about MSL, and observations indicate a cloud thickness of around
900-1000 feet. The strong inversion and decent cloud thickness
should result in slow clearing today, with clouds clearing out of
inland areas by late morning/early afternoon, and a chance that
low clouds could stick to the beaches through late in the day.
Meanwhile, water vapor satellite shows a low pressure system
spinning over the northeast Pacific, with an upper level ridge
building over Southern California. Due to the ridge, conditions
across the region will continue to warm, with highs expected to
reach 3-7 degrees above normal, and locally 10 degrees above
normal. The lower deserts could reach 100 degrees in some
locations. With the ridge peaking in strength tonight, the marine
layer may get a few hundred feet more shallow, with stratus once
again moving inland about 15-25 miles tonight through Friday
morning.
The ridge will start to weaken on Friday as the aforementioned low
approaches the west coast. This will create the beginning of a
cooling trend and also deepening marine layer trend as the low
moves inland through the Pacific Northwest this weekend. The
marine layer may get deep and thick enough to create some patchy
drizzle Sunday night/Monday morning. Onshore pressure gradients
will strengthen as well, with San Diego to Las Vegas gradients
increasing to near 11-13 MB Saturday evening, and then up to 14 MB
late Sunday. Onshore flow this strong should be enough to create
strong and gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts Saturday
evening through Sunday night, with wind gusts of 50 MPH and
locally 60 MPH possible.
We then go into a warming trend again Monday through Thursday as
ridging gradually builds across the region, with a shallower
marine layer each day. The ECMWF is stronger with the ridge, and
thus warmer, than the GFS. The GFS actually shows a short-wave
trough moving across the Great Basin and down into Arizona Monday-
Tuesday which could bring less in the way of warming and less in
the way of a shallower marine layer.
&&
.AVIATION...
121600Z...Coast/Valleys...Stratus with bases 900-1200 ft MSL and
tops to 1600 ft MSL will gradually clear to near the coast by 19Z.
Local vis 2-4 mi will continue through 17Z within 15 mi of the
coast. Local BKN cigs will continue this afternoon along the
immediate coast. Stratus will begin to move back into the coastal
airports between 00-02Z and spread 15-20 mi inland tonight, with
bases around 900-1200 ft MSL and tops to 1600 ft MSL. Local vis will
be below 2 mi after 08Z in the valleys, including vcnty KRNM and
KAJO.
Mtns/Deserts...Clear with unrestricted visibility through tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
900 AM...No hazardous marine weather is expected through Monday.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation will not be needed today.
&&
.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Harrison
AVIATION/MARINE...Maxwell
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
730 AM MST THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure system will build into the region for a significant
warming trend through the end of the work week. Many lower desert
locations will warm into the 100 to 104 degree range Thursday
through Saturday. Another Pacific weather system is forecast to move
into the western states, mainly north of Arizona, late Sunday and
early next week. Although this system will be mostly dry for
southern Arizona, it will result in breezy afternoons along with
cooler temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The region is now caught in the doldrums of high pressure, light
wind, and unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures through Saturday.
As the previous discussion below highlights, some temperature relief
will come Sunday and early next week as a new Pacific low pressure
system is forecast to settle over the region for a few days. Details
below. Current dry and warm forecasts through Saturday look good. No
updates necessary.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...501 AM MST...
Early this morning, IR satellite imagery showed a batch of thin
cirrus clouds moving across the southern deserts, embedded in a
westerly flow aloft. Latest plot data showed 500mb heights up to
585DM across southern Arizona and heights were up 30-40m statewide,
indicating that upper ridging was continuing to build into the
desert southwest. Latest short and medium range model guidance, in
addition to GEFS ensemble guidance, continued to advertise a sharp
warming trend to persist through the end of the work week as high
pressure aloft strengthens and puts its stamp on our weather. By this
evening 500mb heights should reach to near 588dm over the lower
deserts and triple digits will become widespread over the lower
elevations. Peak heating should occur on Friday with the warmest
lower deserts climbing to around 105 degrees, and the forecast for
Phoenix will be 104 on that day. Overall there has been little change
in the forecast thinking by any of the models and there will be very
little change made to the forecast, especially for the rest of this
week. Confidence remains very high regarding the warming trend
through Friday.
Over the weekend, the GFS and ECMWF operational runs as well as GEFS
spaghetti ensemble members all advertise the start of a cooling
trend over the area as an area of low pressure along the Pacific
Northwest coast moves inland and then develops towards the southeast,
causing the upper ridge over Arizona to weaken and shift towards the
east. Heights aloft fall and we will see our high temperatures drop
into the middle 90s by the end of the weekend. Despite partly sunny
skies Saturday, highs will remain in the triple digits for the most
part and despite increasing sunshine Sunday we will see the cooling
continue with H5 heights dropping to 575dm or lower over the central
and western deserts.
For Monday into Tuesday, GFS and guidance becomes a bit more
divergent with the GFS a bit more bullish on bringing the upper low
further south and into central Arizona, eventually leading to a
slight chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms across the higher
terrain of southern Gila County on Tuesday. ECMWF is a bit less
aggressive and drier for the lower deserts, but given the general
agreement between Gems ensemble members in bringing the low into
central Arizona, and with Naifs POPs guidance pushing at least a
slight chance of showers into the higher terrain northeast of
Phoenix, we decided to add the slight chance POPs into our forecast
for Tuesday. For the most part showers and storms during this period
will be confined to higher terrain areas of northern Arizona, which
is typical for upper lows this time of year. Temperatures of course
will fall some more, with cooler south central deserts dropping into
the mid to upper 80s Monday. Slight warming is expected Tuesday but
highs will stay below seasonal normals.
Drier west/northwest flow aloft spreads into the deserts from the
west Wednesday as the upper low moves off to the east, allowing for a
warming trend with high temperatures rising back into the mid 90s
and approaching seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL, Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona Including KIPL and KBLH
No aviation concerns expected. Strong high pressure will favor clear
skies with a few high clouds passing during the morning hours. Winds
will remain on the light side, mainly 8 kts or less and follow
normal diurnal trends.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday...
Strong high pressure will support above normal high temperatures in
the upper 90s to low 100s on Saturday. Next system moves through the
region on Sunday, with daytime highs in the low to mid 90s. On both
Saturday and Sunday, the combination of minimum relative humidity
values below 15 percent and breezy winds will elevate the fire
danger throughout the region, although conditions should remain
below critical thresholds. Monday through Wednesday, high
temperatures will be below normal with minimum humidities lifting
into the mid teens to near 20 percent range.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
Discussion...VASQUEZ/CB
Aviation...Hernandez
Fire Weather...Hernandez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
730 AM MST THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure system will build into the region for a significant
warming trend through the end of the work week. Many lower desert
locations will warm into the 100 to 104 degree range Thursday
through Saturday. Another Pacific weather system is forecast to move
into the western states, mainly north of Arizona, late Sunday and
early next week. Although this system will be mostly dry for
southern Arizona, it will result in breezy afternoons along with
cooler temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The region is now caught in the doldrums of high pressure, light
wind, and unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures through Saturday.
As the previous discussion below highlights, some temperature relief
will come Sunday and early next week as a new Pacific low pressure
system is forecast to settle over the region for a few days. Details
below. Current dry and warm forecasts through Saturday look good. No
updates necessary.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...501 AM MST...
Early this morning, IR satellite imagery showed a batch of thin
cirrus clouds moving across the southern deserts, embedded in a
westerly flow aloft. Latest plot data showed 500mb heights up to
585DM across southern Arizona and heights were up 30-40m statewide,
indicating that upper ridging was continuing to build into the
desert southwest. Latest short and medium range model guidance, in
addition to GEFS ensemble guidance, continued to advertise a sharp
warming trend to persist through the end of the work week as high
pressure aloft strengthens and puts its stamp on our weather. By this
evening 500mb heights should reach to near 588dm over the lower
deserts and triple digits will become widespread over the lower
elevations. Peak heating should occur on Friday with the warmest
lower deserts climbing to around 105 degrees, and the forecast for
Phoenix will be 104 on that day. Overall there has been little change
in the forecast thinking by any of the models and there will be very
little change made to the forecast, especially for the rest of this
week. Confidence remains very high regarding the warming trend
through Friday.
Over the weekend, the GFS and ECMWF operational runs as well as GEFS
spaghetti ensemble members all advertise the start of a cooling
trend over the area as an area of low pressure along the Pacific
Northwest coast moves inland and then develops towards the southeast,
causing the upper ridge over Arizona to weaken and shift towards the
east. Heights aloft fall and we will see our high temperatures drop
into the middle 90s by the end of the weekend. Despite partly sunny
skies Saturday, highs will remain in the triple digits for the most
part and despite increasing sunshine Sunday we will see the cooling
continue with H5 heights dropping to 575dm or lower over the central
and western deserts.
For Monday into Tuesday, GFS and guidance becomes a bit more
divergent with the GFS a bit more bullish on bringing the upper low
further south and into central Arizona, eventually leading to a
slight chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms across the higher
terrain of southern Gila County on Tuesday. ECMWF is a bit less
aggressive and drier for the lower deserts, but given the general
agreement between Gems ensemble members in bringing the low into
central Arizona, and with Naifs POPs guidance pushing at least a
slight chance of showers into the higher terrain northeast of
Phoenix, we decided to add the slight chance POPs into our forecast
for Tuesday. For the most part showers and storms during this period
will be confined to higher terrain areas of northern Arizona, which
is typical for upper lows this time of year. Temperatures of course
will fall some more, with cooler south central deserts dropping into
the mid to upper 80s Monday. Slight warming is expected Tuesday but
highs will stay below seasonal normals.
Drier west/northwest flow aloft spreads into the deserts from the
west Wednesday as the upper low moves off to the east, allowing for a
warming trend with high temperatures rising back into the mid 90s
and approaching seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL, Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona Including KIPL and KBLH
No aviation concerns expected. Strong high pressure will favor clear
skies with a few high clouds passing during the morning hours. Winds
will remain on the light side, mainly 8 kts or less and follow
normal diurnal trends.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday...
Strong high pressure will support above normal high temperatures in
the upper 90s to low 100s on Saturday. Next system moves through the
region on Sunday, with daytime highs in the low to mid 90s. On both
Saturday and Sunday, the combination of minimum relative humidity
values below 15 percent and breezy winds will elevate the fire
danger throughout the region, although conditions should remain
below critical thresholds. Monday through Wednesday, high
temperatures will be below normal with minimum humidities lifting
into the mid teens to near 20 percent range.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
Discussion...VASQUEZ/CB
Aviation...Hernandez
Fire Weather...Hernandez
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion...corrected to add synopsis
National Weather Service Eureka CA
602 AM PDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper-level ridge will persist over northern California through
this evening. Patchy fog will persist through mid morning, mainly
near and west of highway 101. On Friday the ridge will shift to our
east a storm system approaches the region. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms may develop Friday afternoon and evening across
portions of Del Norte and Trinity counties. Rain will increase in
coverage Saturday morning and afternoon, as the system crosses the
area. Rain chances will diminish on Sunday, with a warming trend
expected next week.
.DISCUSSION...Low clouds and patchy fog/light drizzle have
expanded eastward from the coastal waters, roughly along and west
of the U.S. 101 corridor, and may continue to spread inland
somewhat over the next few hours. We added patchy fog with light
drizzle to the zones for these locations. By mid-morning, the fog
should being to burn off, with any residual fog being confined to
the immediate coastal areas. Otherwise, expect clouds to persist
today/tonight with near seasonal temperatures.
For Friday through next weekend, rain chances will increase for
Friday through the weekend. Not too much has changed in the latest
model runs, as they continue to portray an upper-level low passing
by to our north, with a respectable jet stream positioned across
northern California. As the system approached the coast Friday
evening, showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop during
the afternoon and evening. The best chance for thunderstorm
development continues to be across eastern portions of Del Norte
and Trinity counties. Taking a look at model soundings for this
area, they continue to show moderate instability, with NAM MUCAPEs
ranging from 500 to 2000 J/kg (highest across northern portions of
Trinity County). However...the GFS is less aggressive with these
values, showing about 500-1200 J/kg. In any event, both models
show good directional shear above 850mb which will aloft for good
tilting of the updraft (storm top ventilation), which combined
with 0-6km bulk shear values near 30 kts may result in a couple of
strong storms. Mid-level lapse rates today are lower than
yesterday (models now show less than 7 deg C/km), thus, severe
weather is not expected at this time.
As the system moves ashore Friday night/Saturday it will begin to
take on a negative tilt. Increasing ascent associated with this may
allow a few thunderstorms to develop despite decreasing instability.
Showers will also increase in coverage as the trough axis crosses
the state. Any precipitation will decrease in coverage on Sunday, as
the system departs the region. Upper-level ridging will start to
build across the region by early next week, with rising height
leading to warmer temperatures and decreased cloud cover. /PD
&&
.AVIATION...Marine layer is well established along the coastal forecast
area overnight. LIFR conditions were observed in both Crescent
City and Arcata airports. Cloud ceiling is steady at around 200
feet. Around 1 to 2 mile visibilities at Crescent City, and Arcata
saw visibilities as low as 1/4 mile at times. Being further
inland, Ukiah is seeing VFR conditions with mostly clear skies and
unrestricted visibilities. During the day, do expect gradually
improving conditions for Crescent City and Arcata, as the daytime
heating should erode the marine stratus somewhat. However, do
expect the marine stratus to strengthen overnight tonight as there
is not really any strong offshore wind component to cause the
marine layer to dissipate. /RL
&&
.MARINE...Light winds with low seas expected through Friday.
Seas, around 4 feet or so, are mixed with short, mid and long
period groups. Across Northern California and coastal waters,
there is not much pressure gradient. The weak pressure gradient is
expected to continue through Friday. On Saturday, a weak low
pressure will approach Northwest California coast, and this will
bring in southerly winds across the coastal waters. Northerly
winds will return to the area by Sunday, as the low moves inland
and a high builds into the East Pacific. Models are hinting that
northerly winds will increase to small craft level by Monday, with
gale force winds possible. Short period waves of 8 feet or higher
should return to the area early next week due to the increase in
northerly winds.
Visibilities are lowered this morning due to low clouds and light
drizzle from the marine layer covering the Northwest California
coast. The marine layer is expected to remain over the area
through tonight at the very least, since there is not really any
major atmospheric forcing that will lead to the dissipation of the
marine layer.
Forecast confidence is about average. Utilize RUC13 through
Thursday afternoon, then transition to Hi-Res ARW and Hi-Res NMM
through Thursday night. Uses a blend of ECMWF/GFS from Friday
through next week. /RL
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
Visit us at http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
Follow us on facebook and twitter at:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
http://www.twitter.com/nwseureka
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
432 AM PDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
The overnight marine layer will persist through next week for
the coast and some valleys...otherwise mostly clear farther
inland. A high will be overhead by Thursday for above normal
temperatures that will drop by the weekend to around normal as a
low approaches. Then a high will arrive on Tuesday to raise temperatures
to above normal again.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SAT)
Overall, 00Z models in good synoptic agreement through the period.
At upper levels, a ridge will peak in strength today then a trough
will develop over the area Friday/Saturday as an upper low moves
across the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface, weak onshore flow
today will gradually strengthen Friday/Saturday.
Forecast wise, main issue will continue to be the depth/inland
extent of the marine layer stratus. Current AMDAR soundings
indicate marine inversion based around 1400 feet while satellite
shows stratus covering/filling in across the coastal plain. Given
current inversion depth and surface gradients, some patchy stratus
will likely sneak into the lower coastal valleys today. By this
afternoon, stratus should dissipate all areas, allowing for a
sunny afternoon. For tonight through Saturday, the combination of
lowering H5 heights and increasing onshore flow will lead to a
deeper inversion and further inland extent for the marine layer
stratus.
As for temperatures, today will be the warmest day with most valley
locales climbing into the mid to upper 80s. For Friday/Saturday, a
cooling trend is anticipated due to upper level trough and more
marine layer influence.
As for winds, no significant issues are anticipated through the
period. Afternoon/evening winds across the mountains and deserts
will increase each day due to stronger onshore gradients, but will
remain below advisory levels.
.LONG TERM...(SUN-WED)
Overall, 00Z models continue to exhibit good synoptic agreement. At
upper levels, trough will remain over the area on Sunday then a ridge
will gradually develop off the coast Monday through Wednesday. Near
the surface, weak to moderate west to northwest flow will continue
through the period.
Forecast-wise, the marine layer stratus will continue to be the
main game in town. From Sunday through Wednesday, the depth and
inland extent of the marine layer will gradually diminish from day
to day. With this decreasing marine influence, temperatures will
be on the increase with Tuesday/Wednesday the warmest days. As for
winds, with the northwest tilt to the flow pattern, there will be
some gusty northwesterly winds during the evening and overnight
hours, but nothing that looks too problematic at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...12/1130Z...
At 1115Z...the marine inversion at KLAX was around 1500 ft deep.
The top of the inversion was around 3900 ft with a temperature of
21 deg C.
N of Point Conception...Moderate confidence in the 12z tafs.
Low clouds with LIFR/IFR cigs are expected to scour out +/- 1 hour
from 12z taf. 30 percent chance cigs could linger 2 hours past
scour out times. Overall, fairly confident cigs will scour around
the same time or an hour earlier due to more shallow marine layer.
Going with persistence.
S of Point Conception...High confidence with coastal 12z tafs.
mainly IFR but some coastal LIFR cigs possible through mid morning
hours. Moderate confidence for patchy ifr cigs across valley taf
sites. KBUR could see IFR cigs while KVNY should stay clear this
morning with vfr conds. 30 percent chance that KVNY gets ifr cigs
by 14z...and the same that KBUR will not receive cigs. Lower
confidence for ifr/lifr conds for KBUR/KVNY early Friday morning.
KLAX...Generally hi confidence in the 12z taf. Low clouds with
IFR cigs are expected to improve to IFR/MVFR 15Z-20Z. VFR
conditions will prevail aft 20Z til around 05Z this evening when
IFR cigs should move back into the airfield. 30% chance cigs
could develop a couple hours earlier or later than 05z.
KBUR...Generally low to moderate confidence in the 12z taf. Low
clouds with IFR cigs might not make it into KBUR this morning. 30%
chance cigs might not develop this morning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected thru this afternoon through late tonight
or early Friday morning. The timing of the onset of low clouds
tonight may be off +/-a couple hours or so.
&&
.MARINE...12/230 AM.
Small craft advisory conditions are not likely through Saturday
morning...though occasional afternoon and evening gusts around 20
KT are expected from Point Conception to San Clemente Island.
high confidence that Northwest winds will increase Saturday
through early next week. Small craft advisory winds are certain
from the central coast to San Nicolas island...with a 30 percent
chance of low-grade gale force winds. There is a 60 percent
chance for small craft advisory winds over the other inner
waters. All waters will see building short- period and hazardously
choppy seas.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...RAT
weather.gov/losangeles
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
416 AM PDT THU MAY 12 2016
.Synopsis...2000 foot marine layer remains in place this morning
with clearing by late morning as high pressure continues. Next
trough arrives Friday with a cooling trend as onshore winds
return. The trough will move onshore Saturday morning and could
produce some North Bay sprinkles with drizzle along the coast.
High pressure rebuilds Sunday through the middle of next week with
dry and seasonable weather.
&&
.Discussion...AS OF 4:16 am pdt Thursday...2000 foot marine layer
in place with cloud bases from 500 to 1000 feet this morning. High
pressure aloft will likely induce some drizzle this morning as the
sun comes up. Otherwise clouds will burn off by late morning
inland areas and retreat to the coast. Inland highs mainly in the
70s except some 80s well inland while 60s persist along the coast.
Main weather story for Friday will be an inland cooling trend as
onshore flow increases ahead of approaching upper trough. Cool
marine air should efficiently spread into the Bay and inland
valleys with the afternoon/evening seabreeze on Friday ahead of
the upper trough as the marine layer deepens.
Upper trough axis passes near Cape Mendocino early Saturday
morning. NAM model has painted some spotty qpf over Sonoma County
as this occurs so have put some 15% chance of sprinkles or light
showers Saturday morning as the trough axis moves inland and may
produce some showers or just lift the marine layer and produce
some light precip. Otherwise expect a partly cloudy and cool day
on Saturday with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.
High pressure rebuilds behind the trough on Sunday leading to a
prolonged period of dry and seasonable weather through most of
next week. Latest long range trends show next upper trough
arriving late next week but precip staying north of the Bay Area.
Main extended theme would be below normal temps with no hot
weather through the weekend of the 22nd.
&&
.Aviation...As of 11:00 PM PDT Wednesday...A deep marine layer
(around 2000 feet) and moderate onshore flow will mean widespread
MVFR and local IFR cigs overnight and through Thursday morning.
Marine layer depth not expected to change much over the next 24
hours, which will mean relatively slow clearing of low cigs on
Thursday with little or no clearing near the ocean. Light to
moderate onshore winds will prevail.
Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR cigs expected to develop by 09Z and
continue until 18Z Thursday. A period of IFR cigs is possible from
12Z-17Z. Confidence moderate. Light westerly winds overnight
increasing to about 15 knots late Thursday afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR cigs persisting overnight and through
most of Thursday morning. MVFR cigs likely through the
afternoon...possibly scattering out for a few hours mid to late
afternoon. Light westerly winds.
&&
.Marine...as of 03:34 AM PDT Thursday...Weak high pressure over
the great basin and off the california coast will keep light
northwest winds through saturday. winds will increase sunday and
monday as high pressure strengthens off the california coast. a
long period southerly swell will move through the coastal waters
at times.
&&
.MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
.Tday...None.
$$
Public Forecast: RWW
Aviation: W Pi
Marine: W Pi
Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco
Follow us on Facebook and twitter at:
www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
416 AM PDT THU MAY 12 2016
.Synopsis...2000 foot marine layer remains in place this morning
with clearing by late morning as high pressure continues. Next
trough arrives Friday with a cooling trend as onshore winds
return. The trough will move onshore Saturday morning and could
produce some North Bay sprinkles with drizzle along the coast.
High pressure rebuilds Sunday through the middle of next week with
dry and seasonable weather.
&&
.Discussion...AS OF 4:16 am pdt Thursday...2000 foot marine layer
in place with cloud bases from 500 to 1000 feet this morning. High
pressure aloft will likely induce some drizzle this morning as the
sun comes up. Otherwise clouds will burn off by late morning
inland areas and retreat to the coast. Inland highs mainly in the
70s except some 80s well inland while 60s persist along the coast.
Main weather story for Friday will be an inland cooling trend as
onshore flow increases ahead of approaching upper trough. Cool
marine air should efficiently spread into the Bay and inland
valleys with the afternoon/evening seabreeze on Friday ahead of
the upper trough as the marine layer deepens.
Upper trough axis passes near Cape Mendocino early Saturday
morning. NAM model has painted some spotty qpf over Sonoma County
as this occurs so have put some 15% chance of sprinkles or light
showers Saturday morning as the trough axis moves inland and may
produce some showers or just lift the marine layer and produce
some light precip. Otherwise expect a partly cloudy and cool day
on Saturday with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.
High pressure rebuilds behind the trough on Sunday leading to a
prolonged period of dry and seasonable weather through most of
next week. Latest long range trends show next upper trough
arriving late next week but precip staying north of the Bay Area.
Main extended theme would be below normal temps with no hot
weather through the weekend of the 22nd.
&&
.Aviation...As of 11:00 PM PDT Wednesday...A deep marine layer
(around 2000 feet) and moderate onshore flow will mean widespread
MVFR and local IFR cigs overnight and through Thursday morning.
Marine layer depth not expected to change much over the next 24
hours, which will mean relatively slow clearing of low cigs on
Thursday with little or no clearing near the ocean. Light to
moderate onshore winds will prevail.
Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR cigs expected to develop by 09Z and
continue until 18Z Thursday. A period of IFR cigs is possible from
12Z-17Z. Confidence moderate. Light westerly winds overnight
increasing to about 15 knots late Thursday afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR cigs persisting overnight and through
most of Thursday morning. MVFR cigs likely through the
afternoon...possibly scattering out for a few hours mid to late
afternoon. Light westerly winds.
&&
.Marine...as of 03:34 AM PDT Thursday...Weak high pressure over
the great basin and off the california coast will keep light
northwest winds through saturday. winds will increase sunday and
monday as high pressure strengthens off the california coast. a
long period southerly swell will move through the coastal waters
at times.
&&
.MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
.Tday...None.
$$
Public Forecast: RWW
Aviation: W Pi
Marine: W Pi
Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco
Follow us on Facebook and twitter at:
www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
400 am PDT Thu May 12, 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep skies generally clear and temperatures
above normal through Friday. A dry cold front will move through
the central california interior Saturday accompanied and followed
by gusty winds on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley and in
the Kern County mountains and desert thIS weekend. Temperatures
will cool to seasonable levels by Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A very warm day, and likely the warmest day yet this
year, is shaping up over the central California interior as evidenced
by temperature trends which are currently averaging 3 to 8 degrees
higher than 24 hours ago. Friday will be nearly as warm as today and
possibly even a bit warmer in the Kern County Desert as the center
of an upper level ridge of high pressure currently over California
shifts eastward into the Great Basin. During this time, thermometer
readings will rise well into the 90`s in the San Joaquin Valley,
lower foothills and the Kern County Desert. The hottest locations
could reach the century mark in the San Joaquin Valley this afternoon
and in the Kern County Desert Friday afternoon.
Our preview of Summer weather will be short-lived, only to be ushered
away by a cold front Saturday. That front is currently situated over
the Eastern Pacific and will be carried eastward across the central
California interior by a storm system that tracks through the
Pacific Northwest this weekend. The cold front will be moisture
starved by the time it arrives here Saturday afternoon and will be
accompanied by little more than some mid and high cloudiness with its
passage. Nonetheless, the front will be driven through the CWA by a
rather strong upper level jet Saturday. The models forecast this 300
mb jet to remain over central California through the weekend thus
supporting gusty winds through and below the passes on the west side
of the San Joaquin Valley and in the Kern County mountains and
desert. In these specific regions, wind gusts might briefly breach
advisory speeds of 35 to 45 mph from Saturday evening through Sunday
evening and kick up some dust. In addition to blustery winds, the
cold front will herald the arrival of a much cooler air mass this
weekend. High temperatures will be a good 10 to 20 degrees lower
Sunday compared to today and Friday. Additionally, low clouds and
possibly some drizzle could form in the wake of this cold front
along the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi mountains Saturday
night and linger through midday Sunday.
Monday will still be rather breezy and slightly cooler than normal as
a dry northwesterly flow aloft resides over California. The models
bring a weak "inside slider" type disturbance into the Great Basin
Monday. If this system tracks a little farther west than we are
currently thinking, it could bring some showers to the higher
elevations of the Sierra north of Kings Canyon Monday afternoon into
Monday night. We are currently opting for a dry forecast but have
beefed up cloud cover over the high Sierra during these periods for
now.
Tuesday through Wednesday will be dry as an Epac ridge builds into
California. A warming trend during this period will bring maximum
temperatures close to the ninety degree mark again in the San Joaquin
Valley by Wednesday. Although the models flatten this ridge by next
Thursday, mostly clear skies and warmer than normal temperatures
will continue on day 7. The models forecast a return of blustery
and much cooler weather across central California toward the end of
next week as an unusually deep and cold storm system moves into the
Pacific Northwest. Further details on that will be reserved for later
forecast discussions.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions can be expected throughout the central CA interior
during the next 24 hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY MAY 12 2016... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
public...Durfee
avn/fw...DS
synopsis...Durfee
weather.gov/hanford
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
400 am PDT Thu May 12, 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep skies generally clear and temperatures
above normal through Friday. A dry cold front will move through
the central california interior Saturday accompanied and followed
by gusty winds on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley and in
the Kern County mountains and desert thIS weekend. Temperatures
will cool to seasonable levels by Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A very warm day, and likely the warmest day yet this
year, is shaping up over the central California interior as evidenced
by temperature trends which are currently averaging 3 to 8 degrees
higher than 24 hours ago. Friday will be nearly as warm as today and
possibly even a bit warmer in the Kern County Desert as the center
of an upper level ridge of high pressure currently over California
shifts eastward into the Great Basin. During this time, thermometer
readings will rise well into the 90`s in the San Joaquin Valley,
lower foothills and the Kern County Desert. The hottest locations
could reach the century mark in the San Joaquin Valley this afternoon
and in the Kern County Desert Friday afternoon.
Our preview of Summer weather will be short-lived, only to be ushered
away by a cold front Saturday. That front is currently situated over
the Eastern Pacific and will be carried eastward across the central
California interior by a storm system that tracks through the
Pacific Northwest this weekend. The cold front will be moisture
starved by the time it arrives here Saturday afternoon and will be
accompanied by little more than some mid and high cloudiness with its
passage. Nonetheless, the front will be driven through the CWA by a
rather strong upper level jet Saturday. The models forecast this 300
mb jet to remain over central California through the weekend thus
supporting gusty winds through and below the passes on the west side
of the San Joaquin Valley and in the Kern County mountains and
desert. In these specific regions, wind gusts might briefly breach
advisory speeds of 35 to 45 mph from Saturday evening through Sunday
evening and kick up some dust. In addition to blustery winds, the
cold front will herald the arrival of a much cooler air mass this
weekend. High temperatures will be a good 10 to 20 degrees lower
Sunday compared to today and Friday. Additionally, low clouds and
possibly some drizzle could form in the wake of this cold front
along the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi mountains Saturday
night and linger through midday Sunday.
Monday will still be rather breezy and slightly cooler than normal as
a dry northwesterly flow aloft resides over California. The models
bring a weak "inside slider" type disturbance into the Great Basin
Monday. If this system tracks a little farther west than we are
currently thinking, it could bring some showers to the higher
elevations of the Sierra north of Kings Canyon Monday afternoon into
Monday night. We are currently opting for a dry forecast but have
beefed up cloud cover over the high Sierra during these periods for
now.
Tuesday through Wednesday will be dry as an Epac ridge builds into
California. A warming trend during this period will bring maximum
temperatures close to the ninety degree mark again in the San Joaquin
Valley by Wednesday. Although the models flatten this ridge by next
Thursday, mostly clear skies and warmer than normal temperatures
will continue on day 7. The models forecast a return of blustery
and much cooler weather across central California toward the end of
next week as an unusually deep and cold storm system moves into the
Pacific Northwest. Further details on that will be reserved for later
forecast discussions.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions can be expected throughout the central CA interior
during the next 24 hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY MAY 12 2016... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
public...Durfee
avn/fw...DS
synopsis...Durfee
weather.gov/hanford
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
400 am PDT Thu May 12, 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep skies generally clear and temperatures
above normal through Friday. A dry cold front will move through
the central california interior Saturday accompanied and followed
by gusty winds on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley and in
the Kern County mountains and desert thIS weekend. Temperatures
will cool to seasonable levels by Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A very warm day, and likely the warmest day yet this
year, is shaping up over the central California interior as evidenced
by temperature trends which are currently averaging 3 to 8 degrees
higher than 24 hours ago. Friday will be nearly as warm as today and
possibly even a bit warmer in the Kern County Desert as the center
of an upper level ridge of high pressure currently over California
shifts eastward into the Great Basin. During this time, thermometer
readings will rise well into the 90`s in the San Joaquin Valley,
lower foothills and the Kern County Desert. The hottest locations
could reach the century mark in the San Joaquin Valley this afternoon
and in the Kern County Desert Friday afternoon.
Our preview of Summer weather will be short-lived, only to be ushered
away by a cold front Saturday. That front is currently situated over
the Eastern Pacific and will be carried eastward across the central
California interior by a storm system that tracks through the
Pacific Northwest this weekend. The cold front will be moisture
starved by the time it arrives here Saturday afternoon and will be
accompanied by little more than some mid and high cloudiness with its
passage. Nonetheless, the front will be driven through the CWA by a
rather strong upper level jet Saturday. The models forecast this 300
mb jet to remain over central California through the weekend thus
supporting gusty winds through and below the passes on the west side
of the San Joaquin Valley and in the Kern County mountains and
desert. In these specific regions, wind gusts might briefly breach
advisory speeds of 35 to 45 mph from Saturday evening through Sunday
evening and kick up some dust. In addition to blustery winds, the
cold front will herald the arrival of a much cooler air mass this
weekend. High temperatures will be a good 10 to 20 degrees lower
Sunday compared to today and Friday. Additionally, low clouds and
possibly some drizzle could form in the wake of this cold front
along the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi mountains Saturday
night and linger through midday Sunday.
Monday will still be rather breezy and slightly cooler than normal as
a dry northwesterly flow aloft resides over California. The models
bring a weak "inside slider" type disturbance into the Great Basin
Monday. If this system tracks a little farther west than we are
currently thinking, it could bring some showers to the higher
elevatins of the Sierra north of Kings Canyon Monday afternoon into
Monday night. We are currently opting for a dry forecast but have
beefed up cloud cover over the high Sierra during these periods for
now.
Tuesday through Wednesday will be dry as an Epac ridge builds into
California. A warming trend during this period will bring maximum
temperatures close to the ninety degree mark again in the San Joaquin
Valley by Wednesday. Although the models flatten this ridge by next
Thursday, mostly clear skies and warmer than normal temperatures
will continue on day 7. The models forecast a return of blustery
and much cooler weather across central California toward the end of
next week as an unusually deep and cold storm system moves into the
Pacific Northwest. Further details on that will be reserved for later
forecast discussions.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions can be expected throughout the central CA interior
during the next 24 hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY MAY 12 2016... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
public...Durfee
avn/fw...DS
synopsis...Durfee
weather.gov/hanford
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
400 am PDT Thu May 12, 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep skies generally clear and temperatures
above normal through Friday. A dry cold front will move through
the central california interior Saturday accompanied and followed
by gusty winds on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley and in
the Kern County mountains and desert thIS weekend. Temperatures
will cool to seasonable levels by Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A very warm day, and likely the warmest day yet this
year, is shaping up over the central California interior as evidenced
by temperature trends which are currently averaging 3 to 8 degrees
higher than 24 hours ago. Friday will be nearly as warm as today and
possibly even a bit warmer in the Kern County Desert as the center
of an upper level ridge of high pressure currently over California
shifts eastward into the Great Basin. During this time, thermometer
readings will rise well into the 90`s in the San Joaquin Valley,
lower foothills and the Kern County Desert. The hottest locations
could reach the century mark in the San Joaquin Valley this afternoon
and in the Kern County Desert Friday afternoon.
Our preview of Summer weather will be short-lived, only to be ushered
away by a cold front Saturday. That front is currently situated over
the Eastern Pacific and will be carried eastward across the central
California interior by a storm system that tracks through the
Pacific Northwest this weekend. The cold front will be moisture
starved by the time it arrives here Saturday afternoon and will be
accompanied by little more than some mid and high cloudiness with its
passage. Nonetheless, the front will be driven through the CWA by a
rather strong upper level jet Saturday. The models forecast this 300
mb jet to remain over central California through the weekend thus
supporting gusty winds through and below the passes on the west side
of the San Joaquin Valley and in the Kern County mountains and
desert. In these specific regions, wind gusts might briefly breach
advisory speeds of 35 to 45 mph from Saturday evening through Sunday
evening and kick up some dust. In addition to blustery winds, the
cold front will herald the arrival of a much cooler air mass this
weekend. High temperatures will be a good 10 to 20 degrees lower
Sunday compared to today and Friday. Additionally, low clouds and
possibly some drizzle could form in the wake of this cold front
along the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi mountains Saturday
night and linger through midday Sunday.
Monday will still be rather breezy and slightly cooler than normal as
a dry northwesterly flow aloft resides over California. The models
bring a weak "inside slider" type disturbance into the Great Basin
Monday. If this system tracks a little farther west than we are
currently thinking, it could bring some showers to the higher
elevatins of the Sierra north of Kings Canyon Monday afternoon into
Monday night. We are currently opting for a dry forecast but have
beefed up cloud cover over the high Sierra during these periods for
now.
Tuesday through Wednesday will be dry as an Epac ridge builds into
California. A warming trend during this period will bring maximum
temperatures close to the ninety degree mark again in the San Joaquin
Valley by Wednesday. Although the models flatten this ridge by next
Thursday, mostly clear skies and warmer than normal temperatures
will continue on day 7. The models forecast a return of blustery
and much cooler weather across central California toward the end of
next week as an unusually deep and cold storm system moves into the
Pacific Northwest. Further details on that will be reserved for later
forecast discussions.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions can be expected throughout the central CA interior
during the next 24 hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY MAY 12 2016... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
public...Durfee
avn/fw...DS
synopsis...Durfee
weather.gov/hanford
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Eureka CA
404 AM PDT THU MAY 12 2016
.DISCUSSION...Low clouds and patchy fog/light drizzle have
expanded eastward from the coastal waters, roughly along and west
of the U.S. 101 corridor, and may continue to spread inland
somewhat over the next few hours. We added patchy fog with light
drizzle to the zones for these locations. By mid-morning, the fog
should being to burn off, with any residual fog being confined to
the immediate coastal areas. Otherwise, expect clouds to persist
today/tonight with near seasonal temperatures.
For Friday through next weekend, rain chances will increase for
Friday through the weekend. Not too much has changed in the latest
model runs, as they continue to portray an upper-level low passing
by to our north, with a respectable jet stream positioned across
northern California. As the system approached the coast Friday
evening, showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop during
the afternoon and evening. The best chance for thunderstorm
development continues to be across eastern portions of Del Norte
and Trinity counties. Taking a look at model soundings for this
area, they continue to show moderate instability, with NAM MUCAPEs
ranging from 500 to 2000 J/kg (highest across northern portions of
Trinity County). However...the GFS is less aggressive with these
values, showing about 500-1200 J/kg. In any event, both models
show good directional shear above 850mb which will aloft for good
tilting of the updraft (storm top ventilation), which combined
with 0-6km bulk shear values near 30 kts may result in a couple of
strong storms. Mid-level lapse rates today are lower than
yesterday (models now show less than 7 deg C/km), thus, severe
weather is not expected at this time.
As the system moves ashore Friday night/Saturday it will begin to
take on a negative tilt. Increasing ascent associated with this may
allow a few thunderstorms to develop despite decreasing instability.
Showers will also increase in coverage as the trough axis crosses
the state. Any precipitation will decrease in coverage on Sunday, as
the system departs the region. Upper-level ridging will start to
build across the region by early next week, with rising height
leading to warmer temperatures and decreased cloud cover. /PD
&&
.AVIATION...Marine layer is well established along the coastal forecast
area overnight. LIFR conditions were observed in both Crescent
City and Arcata airports. Cloud ceiling is steady at around 200
feet. Around 1 to 2 mile visibilities at Crescent City, and Arcata
saw visibilities as low as 1/4 mile at times. Being further
inland, Ukiah is seeing VFR conditions with mostly clear skies and
unrestricted visibilities. During the day, do expect gradually
improving conditions for Crescent City and Arcata, as the daytime
heating should erode the marine stratus somewhat. However, do
expect the marine stratus to strengthen overnight tonight as there
is not really any strong offshore wind component to cause the
marine layer to dissipate. /RL
&&
.MARINE...Light winds with low seas expected through Friday.
Seas, around 4 feet or so, are mixed with short, mid and long
period groups. Across Northern California and coastal waters,
there is not much pressure gradient. The weak pressure gradient is
expected to continue through Friday. On Saturday, a weak low
pressure will approach Northwest California coast, and this will
bring in southerly winds across the coastal waters. Northerly
winds will return to the area by Sunday, as the low moves inland
and a high builds into the East Pacific. Models are hinting that
northerly winds will increase to small craft level by Monday, with
gale force winds possible. Short period waves of 8 feet or higher
should return to the area early next week due to the increase in
northerly winds.
Visibilities are lowered this morning due to low clouds and light
drizzle from the marine layer covering the Northwest California
coast. The marine layer is expected to remain over the area
through tonight at the very least, since there is not really any
major atmospheric forcing that will lead to the dissipation of the
marine layer.
Forecast confidence is about average. Utilize RUC13 through
Thursday afternoon, then transition to Hi-Res ARW and Hi-Res NMM
through Thursday night. Uses a blend of ECMWF/GFS from Friday
through next week. /RL
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
Visit us at http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
Follow us on facebook and twitter at:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
http://www.twitter.com/nwseureka
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1040 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore of New England today, while a warm
front remains to our south. The warm front will lift northward across
our area overnight, followed by a west to east cold frontal passage
Friday afternoon. Another cold front will cross the area late on
Saturday. An area of low pressure will strengthen across New
England over the weekend and move into southeast Canada through
Monday. Another cold front or surface trough will cross the area
Sunday, followed by yet another one on Monday. High pressure is
forecast to return to the area late Monday into early Tuesday. An
area of low pressure is expected to lift a warm front across the
area Tuesday night into Wednesday, followed by a cold front
Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 am ESTF: Fog has thinned and dissipated except parts of the
Delmarva but overall the fog does not look to be substantial. A
very nice day is in progress..much nicer than I anticipated
yesterday. Temperatures were raised several degrees and won`t be
surprised to see around 80F NNJ and e central PA. Light wind will
be mostly east to southeast. Skycover...sc cloudiness should
increase with heating and cirrus is also expected this afternoon.
Yesterdays rain by the way via DEOS and CoCoRAHS reports deposited
0.7 to 1.2 inches in Sussex County of southern DE.
Tonight...no change to mid shift forecast. Showers should arrive
toward dawn in e PA. If there is to be fog...and I don`t think
there will be much...it should be mostly e Pa and e MD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A cold front will move across the area from west to east on Friday.
There will be some instability across the area, and precipitable
water values increase across the area to around 1.5 inches. Therefore
there will be the chance for thunderstorms to accompany the rainfall
that is likely. Some showers and thunderstorms could produce a period
of moderate to heavy rainfall. Winds behind the front will likely
become gusty around 15 to 20 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Drier weather is expected overnight Friday behind the cold front.
On Saturday, another cold front will move across the area. There
will remain some instability across the area, although PW values
are forecast to be less. However, the dynamics with Saturday`s
front may be stronger with a stronger jet aloft. So while PW
values may be less, there could still be a period of moderate to
heavy rainfall. Gusty winds are expected behind the frontal
passage with gusts of 25 to 30 mph expected. Dry weather will
return overnight Saturday night, along with cooler temperatures.
An area of low pressure will strengthen to our north, while high
pressure begins to build to our west. This will keep a steady
breeze across the area overnight.
Low pressure will remain to our north on Sunday, with another
frontal boundary or surface trough expected to cross the area
later in the day. While PW values drop below 0.5 inches, which
would normally would indicate a precipitation free forecast, there
remains steep low level lapse rates, along with some higher RH
values in the low-mid levels. As a short wave/vorticity impulse
slides across the area, there could be some light sprinkles make
their way into our area during the day within the northwest flow.
Winds during the day could again gust 25 to 30 mph.
Yet another frontal boundary/surface trough is expected on
Monday, however, with limited lapse rates and moisture, no
precipitation is expected. However, an increase in clouds cover
and gusty afternoon winds of 25 to 30 mph are once again expected.
Dry weather will continue into Monday night as high pressure
builds briefly builds across the area.
From Tuesday through Wednesday, there are some timing differences
with the next weather system. An area of low pressure is forecast
to eventually lift through the Ohio River Valley and into New
England, while lifting a warm front across the area, then pushing
a cold front across the area. The GFS is faster than the ECMWF,
bring the warm front through Tuesday night/Wednesday and the cold
front Wednesday night/Thursday. The ECMWF is about 12-24 hours
slower. For now, we will continue with a chance of showers Tuesday
through Wednesday. The best probabilities will be focused around
individual short wave/vorticity impulses. There could be some
instability ahead of the cold front, so we`ve included thunder in
the Wednesday forecast for now.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
TODAY...VFR sct-bkn aoa 3500 ft, though patches of cigs 1500-2500 ft
through 18z kilg, kmiv and kacy. A mostly light east to southeast
wind.
Tonight...VFR becoming MVFR conds in st/fog/scattered showers late.
Light south wind.
Friday...Showers and thunderstorms possible with a cold frontal
passage. MVFR or IFR CIGS and VSBYS. Gusty west-northwest winds
behind the front of 15-20 knots.
OUTLOOK...
Friday night...VFR expected.
Saturday...Another cold frontal passage with additional showers and
thunderstorms which could lower CIGS and VSBYS to MVFR or IFR again.
Gusty southwest winds 20-25 knots early, becoming west-northwest
behind the cold front.
Saturday...VFR expected.
Sunday...Generally VFR. Scattered showers possible during the day.
Gusty west-northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.
Sunday night...VFR expected.
Monday...VFR with gusty west to northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below small craft advisory conditions
through Friday. Seas are expected to stay around 2 feet or less
with a persistent southeast swell around 8-9 seconds. Winds should
remain near or below 15 kt through tonight, though direction will
shift from easterly or southeasterly today and this evening to
southerly overnight as a warm front lifts through the region.
Winds on Friday southerly, shifting to west late in the day.
OUTLOOK...
Friday night-Saturday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions
expected. Cold frontal passage Saturday, which could cause winds
to gust around 20 knots at times.
Saturday night-Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely
through the period with cold frontal passages Sunday and Monday.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Drag/Robertson
Near Term...Drag/Johnson
Short Term...Drag/Johnson
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Drag/Johnson/Robertson 1040AM
Marine...Drag/Johnson/Robertson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1020 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore of New England today, while a warm
front remains to our south. The warm front will lift northward across
our area overnight, followed by a west to east cold frontal passage
Friday afternoon. Another cold front will cross the area late on
Saturday. An area of low pressure will strengthen across New
England over the weekend and move into southeast Canada through
Monday. Another cold front or surface trough will cross the area
Sunday, followed by yet another one on Monday. High pressure is
forecast to return to the area late Monday into early Tuesday. An
area of low pressure is expected to lift a warm front across the
area Tuesday night into Wednesday, followed by a cold front
Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 am ESTF: Fog has thinned and dissipated except parts of the
Delmarva but overall the fog does not look to be substantial. A
very nice day is in progress..much nicer than I anticipated
yesterday. Temperatures were raised several degrees and won`t be
surprised to see around 80F NNJ and e central PA. Light wind will
be mostly east to southeast. Skycover...sc cloudiness should
increase with heating and cirrus is also expected this afternoon.
Yesterdays rain by the way via DEOS and CoCoRAHS reports deposited
0.7 to 1.2 inches in Sussex County of southern DE.
Tonight...no change to mid shift forecast. Showers should arrive
toward dawn in e PA. If there is to be fog...and I don`t think
there will be much...it should be mostly e Pa and e MD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A cold front will move across the area from west to east on Friday.
There will be some instability across the area, and precipitable
water values increase across the area to around 1.5 inches. Therefore
there will be the chance for thunderstorms to accompany the rainfall
that is likely. Some showers and thunderstorms could produce a period
of moderate to heavy rainfall. Winds behind the front will likely
become gusty around 15 to 20 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Drier weather is expected overnight Friday behind the cold front.
On Saturday, another cold front will move across the area. There
will remain some instability across the area, although PW values
are forecast to be less. However, the dynamics with Saturday`s
front may be stronger with a stronger jet aloft. So while PW
values may be less, there could still be a period of moderate to
heavy rainfall. Gusty winds are expected behind the frontal
passage with gusts of 25 to 30 mph expected. Dry weather will
return overnight Saturday night, along with cooler temperatures.
An area of low pressure will strengthen to our north, while high
pressure begins to build to our west. This will keep a steady
breeze across the area overnight.
Low pressure will remain to our north on Sunday, with another
frontal boundary or surface trough expected to cross the area
later in the day. While PW values drop below 0.5 inches, which
would normally would indicate a precipitation free forecast, there
remains steep low level lapse rates, along with some higher RH
values in the low-mid levels. As a short wave/vorticity impulse
slides across the area, there could be some light sprinkles make
their way into our area during the day within the northwest flow.
Winds during the day could again gust 25 to 30 mph.
Yet another frontal boundary/surface trough is expected on
Monday, however, with limited lapse rates and moisture, no
precipitation is expected. However, an increase in clouds cover
and gusty afternoon winds of 25 to 30 mph are once again expected.
Dry weather will continue into Monday night as high pressure
builds briefly builds across the area.
From Tuesday through Wednesday, there are some timing differences
with the next weather system. An area of low pressure is forecast
to eventually lift through the Ohio River Valley and into New
England, while lifting a warm front across the area, then pushing
a cold front across the area. The GFS is faster than the ECMWF,
bring the warm front through Tuesday night/Wednesday and the cold
front Wednesday night/Thursday. The ECMWF is about 12-24 hours
slower. For now, we will continue with a chance of showers Tuesday
through Wednesday. The best probabilities will be focused around
individual short wave/vorticity impulses. There could be some
instability ahead of the cold front, so we`ve included thunder in
the Wednesday forecast for now.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
TODAY...VFR with a mostly east to southeast wind.
Tonight...VFR becoming MVFR conds in st/fog/scattered showers late.
Light south wind.
Friday...Showers and thunderstorms possible with a cold frontal
passage. MVFR or IFR CIGS and VSBYS. Gusty west-northwest winds
behind the front of 15-20 knots.
OUTLOOK...
Friday night...VFR expected.
Saturday...Another cold frontal passage with additional showers and
thunderstorms which could lower CIGS and VSBYS to MVFR or IFR again.
Gusty southwest winds 20-25 knots early, becoming west-northwest
behind the cold front.
Saturday...VFR expected.
Sunday...Generally VFR. Scattered showers possible during the day.
Gusty west-northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.
Sunday night...VFR expected.
Monday...VFR with gusty west to northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below small craft advisory conditions
through Friday. Seas are expected to stay around 2 feet or less
with a persistent southeast swell around 8-9 seconds. Winds should
remain near or below 15 kt through tonight, though direction will
shift from easterly or southeasterly today and this evening to
southerly overnight as a warm front lifts through the region.
Winds on Friday southerly, shifting to west late in the day.
OUTLOOK...
Friday night-Saturday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions
expected. Cold frontal passage Saturday, which could cause winds
to gust around 20 knots at times.
Saturday night-Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely
through the period with cold frontal passages Sunday and Monday.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Drag/Robertson 1020AM
Near Term...Drag/Johnson 1015 am
Short Term...Drag/Johnson 1020AM
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Drag/Johnson/Robertson 1015 am
Marine...Drag/Johnson/Robertson 1020AM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
341 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore of New England today, while a
frontal boundary remains to our south. This frontal boundary will
lift northward across the area overnight tonight as a warm front,
followed by a cold frontal passage Friday. Another frontal
boundary will cross the area late on Saturday. An area of low
pressure will strengthen across New England over the weekend and
move into southeast Canada through Monday. Another cold front or
surface trough will cross the area Sunday, followed by yet another
one on Monday. High pressure is forecast to return to the area
late Monday into early Tuesday. An area of low pressure is
expected to lift a warm front across the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday, followed by a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Fog has been slow to develop and the nearly saturated layer
appears to be quite shallow. Thus expect any morning fog to
dissipate within the first few hours after sunrise.
Through the day today, an upper level short wave ridge will slide
east over the region. As a result, expect dry conditions through
the day time hours. Light southeasterly low level flow could
temper high today, as well as a persistent marine layer along the
Coastal Plains through the morning hours. Still, with the
increasing 1000-500mb thickness values (thanks to the short wave
ridge), should see max temps a few degrees higher than yesterday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Warm front makes slow progress north through the region
overnight. In the mid and upper levels, the short wave ridge moves
off shore as the next short wave trough begins to approach the
region (but should remain west of the region through the overnight
hours.
In the wake of the warm front, moisture and warm air advection,
could lead to a few showers moving into our region, though the
best lift looks to stay west of our region through this time. &&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will move across the area from west to east on
Friday. There will be some instability across the area, and PW
values increase across the area to around 1.5 inches. Therefore
there will be the chance for thunderstorms to accompany the
rainfall that is likely. Some showers and thunderstorms could
produce a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. Winds behind the
front will likely become gusty around 15 to 20 mph. Drier weather
is expected overnight Friday behind the cold front.
On Saturday, another cold front will move across the area. There
will remain some instability across the area, although PW values
are forecast to be less. However, the dynamics with Saturday`s
front may be stronger with a stronger jet aloft. So while PW
values may be less, there could still be a period of moderate to
heavy rainfall. Gusty winds are expected behind the frontal
passage with gusts of 25 to 30 mph expected. Dry weather will
return overnight Saturday night, along with cooler temperatures.
An area of low pressure will strengthen to our north, while high
pressure begins to build to our west. This will keep a steady
breeze across the area overnight.
Low pressure will remain to our north on Sunday, with another
frontal boundary or surface trough expected to cross the area
later in the day. While PW values drop below 0.5 inches, which
would normally would indicate a precipitation free forecast, there
remains steep low level lapse rates, along with some higher RH
values in the low-mid levels. As a short wave/vorticity impulse
slides across the area, there could be some light sprinkles make
their way into our area during the day within the northwest flow.
Winds during the day could again gust 25 to 30 mph.
Yet another frontal boundary/surface trough is expected on
Monday, however, with limited lapse rates and moisture, no
precipitation is expected. However, an increase in clouds cover
and gusty afternoon winds of 25 to 30 mph are once again expected.
Dry weather will continue into Monday night as high pressure
builds briefly builds across the area.
From Tuesday through Wednesday, there are some timing differences
with the next weather system. An area of low pressure is forecast
to eventually lift through the Ohio River Valley and into New
England, while lifting a warm front across the area, then pushing
a cold front across the area. The GFS is faster than the ECMWF,
bring the warm front through Tuesday night/Wednesday and the cold
front Wednesday night/Thursday. The ECMWF is about 12-24 hours
slower. For now, we will continue with a chance of showers Tuesday
through Wednesday. The best probabilities will be focused around
individual short wave/vorticity impulses. There could be some
instability ahead of the cold front, so we`ve included thunder in
the Wednesday forecast for now.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Low clouds and fog are expected to affect the TAF sites
intermittently through 12Z, before slowly dissipating through the
morning hours. Most locations should return to VFR by 15Z. Once VFR
conditions return, expect them to continue through at least 06Z.
After 06z, low clouds and possibly light fog could move into the
region from the south as a warm front lifts through the region. In
addition, closer to 12Z, a few showers may move into the region from
the west. Either one of these factors could lead to MVFR, and
localized IFR conditions developing before 12Z.
OUTLOOK...
Friday...Showers and thunderstorms possible with a cold frontal
passage. MVFR or IFR CIGS and VSBYS likely. Gusty west-northwest
winds behind the front of 15-20 knots.
Friday night...VFR expected.
Saturday...Another cold frontal passage with additional showers and
thunderstorms which could lower CIGS and VSBYS to MVFR or IFR again.
Gusty southwest winds 20-25 knots early, becoming west-northwest
behind the cold front.
Saturday...VFR expected.
Sunday...Generally VFR. Scattered showers possible during the day.
Gusty west-northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.
Sunday night...VFR expected.
Monday...VFR with gusty west to northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below small craft advisory conditions.
Seas are expected to stay around 2 feet or less. Winds should remain
near or below 15 kt today and tonight, though direction will shift
from easterly or southeasterly today and this evening to southerly
overnight as a warm front lifts through the region.
OUTLOOK...
Friday-Saturday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Cold
frontal passages Friday and Saturday, which could cause winds to
gust around 20 knots at times.
Saturday night-Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely
through the period with cold frontal passages Sunday and Monday.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...Johnson
Short Term...Johnson
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Johnson/Robertson
Marine...Johnson/Robertson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
341 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore of New England today, while a
frontal boundary remains to our south. This frontal boundary will
lift northward across the area overnight tonight as a warm front,
followed by a cold frontal passage Friday. Another frontal
boundary will cross the area late on Saturday. An area of low
pressure will strengthen across New England over the weekend and
move into southeast Canada through Monday. Another cold front or
surface trough will cross the area Sunday, followed by yet another
one on Monday. High pressure is forecast to return to the area
late Monday into early Tuesday. An area of low pressure is
expected to lift a warm front across the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday, followed by a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Fog has been slow to develop and the nearly saturated layer
appears to be quite shallow. Thus expect any morning fog to
dissipate within the first few hours after sunrise.
Through the day today, an upper level short wave ridge will slide
east over the region. As a result, expect dry conditions through
the day time hours. Light southeasterly low level flow could
temper high today, as well as a persistent marine layer along the
Coastal Plains through the morning hours. Still, with the
increasing 1000-500mb thickness values (thanks to the short wave
ridge), should see max temps a few degrees higher than yesterday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Warm front makes slow progress north through the region
overnight. In the mid and upper levels, the short wave ridge moves
off shore as the next short wave trough begins to approach the
region (but should remain west of the region through the overnight
hours.
In the wake of the warm front, moisture and warm air advection,
could lead to a few showers moving into our region, though the
best lift looks to stay west of our region through this time. &&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will move across the area from west to east on
Friday. There will be some instability across the area, and PW
values increase across the area to around 1.5 inches. Therefore
there will be the chance for thunderstorms to accompany the
rainfall that is likely. Some showers and thunderstorms could
produce a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. Winds behind the
front will likely become gusty around 15 to 20 mph. Drier weather
is expected overnight Friday behind the cold front.
On Saturday, another cold front will move across the area. There
will remain some instability across the area, although PW values
are forecast to be less. However, the dynamics with Saturday`s
front may be stronger with a stronger jet aloft. So while PW
values may be less, there could still be a period of moderate to
heavy rainfall. Gusty winds are expected behind the frontal
passage with gusts of 25 to 30 mph expected. Dry weather will
return overnight Saturday night, along with cooler temperatures.
An area of low pressure will strengthen to our north, while high
pressure begins to build to our west. This will keep a steady
breeze across the area overnight.
Low pressure will remain to our north on Sunday, with another
frontal boundary or surface trough expected to cross the area
later in the day. While PW values drop below 0.5 inches, which
would normally would indicate a precipitation free forecast, there
remains steep low level lapse rates, along with some higher RH
values in the low-mid levels. As a short wave/vorticity impulse
slides across the area, there could be some light sprinkles make
their way into our area during the day within the northwest flow.
Winds during the day could again gust 25 to 30 mph.
Yet another frontal boundary/surface trough is expected on
Monday, however, with limited lapse rates and moisture, no
precipitation is expected. However, an increase in clouds cover
and gusty afternoon winds of 25 to 30 mph are once again expected.
Dry weather will continue into Monday night as high pressure
builds briefly builds across the area.
From Tuesday through Wednesday, there are some timing differences
with the next weather system. An area of low pressure is forecast
to eventually lift through the Ohio River Valley and into New
England, while lifting a warm front across the area, then pushing
a cold front across the area. The GFS is faster than the ECMWF,
bring the warm front through Tuesday night/Wednesday and the cold
front Wednesday night/Thursday. The ECMWF is about 12-24 hours
slower. For now, we will continue with a chance of showers Tuesday
through Wednesday. The best probabilities will be focused around
individual short wave/vorticity impulses. There could be some
instability ahead of the cold front, so we`ve included thunder in
the Wednesday forecast for now.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Low clouds and fog are expected to affect the TAF sites
intermittently through 12Z, before slowly dissipating through the
morning hours. Most locations should return to VFR by 15Z. Once VFR
conditions return, expect them to continue through at least 06Z.
After 06z, low clouds and possibly light fog could move into the
region from the south as a warm front lifts through the region. In
addition, closer to 12Z, a few showers may move into the region from
the west. Either one of these factors could lead to MVFR, and
localized IFR conditions developing before 12Z.
OUTLOOK...
Friday...Showers and thunderstorms possible with a cold frontal
passage. MVFR or IFR CIGS and VSBYS likely. Gusty west-northwest
winds behind the front of 15-20 knots.
Friday night...VFR expected.
Saturday...Another cold frontal passage with additional showers and
thunderstorms which could lower CIGS and VSBYS to MVFR or IFR again.
Gusty southwest winds 20-25 knots early, becoming west-northwest
behind the cold front.
Saturday...VFR expected.
Sunday...Generally VFR. Scattered showers possible during the day.
Gusty west-northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.
Sunday night...VFR expected.
Monday...VFR with gusty west to northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below small craft advisory conditions.
Seas are expected to stay around 2 feet or less. Winds should remain
near or below 15 kt today and tonight, though direction will shift
from easterly or southeasterly today and this evening to southerly
overnight as a warm front lifts through the region.
OUTLOOK...
Friday-Saturday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Cold
frontal passages Friday and Saturday, which could cause winds to
gust around 20 knots at times.
Saturday night-Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely
through the period with cold frontal passages Sunday and Monday.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...Johnson
Short Term...Johnson
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Johnson/Robertson
Marine...Johnson/Robertson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
934 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over Canada will shift southeast across New England
tonight and offshore on Thursday. A warm front will approach from
the south Thursday night, then a cold front will cross the area west
to east on Friday. A second cold front will move through on
Saturday, followed by high pressure Sunday and Monday. Temperatures
will moderate Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure moves
offshore. A frontal boundary by midweek is then forecast to approach
from the south.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
An upper air analysis showed an elongated closed mid level low from
Lake Erie to Delaware. There is a decent short wave at 500 mb with
this feature as well with one centered near Delaware. The radar and
earlier visible satellite imagery showed an MCV was tied to the mid
level feature across Maryland to Delaware (this stemmed from
yesterday`s convection in Kentucky). This MCV is now spinning down
as radar trends are showing the showers shrinking in areal coverage
and also weakening considerably from a few hours ago. The upper air
analysis also showed much less 700-500 mb lift with this feature
now. As a result, the showers are expected to continue to weaken as
the feature slowly shifts eastward or dissipates. Some guidance such
as the HRRR and RAP want to develop some more showers though
overnight mainly south of Philadelphia. This may be associated with
the lingering 500 mb feature overhead. We are not all that sure how
much shower activity redevelops as the features look weak, therefore
we just left some slight chc pops overnight.
Otherwise, much more in the way of cloudiness across the southern
areas where some deeper moisture remains. Some drier air though
trying to undercut this from the north has eroded the lower clouds
some farther south. The flow is light therefore lower clouds should
fill back in some for the southern to central areas, with less cloud
cover still expected farther to the north. Some fog should develop
especially across the southern zones where rain has occurred however
the overall extent across the area will depend on the cloud cover.
The hourly grids were adjusted with the latest observations, then
the lamp/lav guidance was blended in. No major changes were made to
the low temperatures at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
This forecast was a 50 50 blend of the 12z/11 GFS/NAM mos. The
12z/11 ECMWF suggests that the temps might be 2F warmer than now
forecast. Some uncertainty regarding cloud cover is the reasoning
for not warming temperatures any further than now posted. Light
wind... trending easterly. Any pops are low and at this time kept a
dry forecast. The KI is lower and very little sign of any
instability burst nor do I see any significant lift factor.
Any fog and low clouds may be slow to lift on the Delmarva.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The first part of the extended period, i.e., Thursday night through
Sunday, features trofing aloft with several shortwaves and
associated frontal systems moving through the mid-Atlantic region.
These fronts will bring in cooler air and a chance for showers
through much of the weekend. On Monday the upper trof starts to
move away and the flow aloft becomes more zonal with possibly some
weak ridging. From early through mid-week temperatures will
moderate and the chance for showers will return by mid-week.
For Thursday night, the frontal boundary now to our south will be
approaching or moving through part of the forecast area as a warm
front. The forecast has increasing chance PoPs during the night and
also areas of fog as the front approaches.
On Friday the first cold front will push through from west to east
during mid day to mid-afternoon, preceded by showers. There is some
marginal instability forecast so a chance for isold/sctd t-storms
was also included. Precip should be over by evening along the coast
and by mid-afternoon over east PA.
The air mass behind the first front is not particularly cold so max
temps on Saturday should be only slightly cooler than Friday.
However a second cold front is forecast to cross the area on
Saturday with an associated shortwave trof aloft and some forcing
for UVV. This will bring more showers during the day with perhaps
an isolated t-storm also.
Sunday will be cool and breezy behind the second front with a closed
low aloft and strong cyclonic flow. This usually brings a good
amount of diurnal cu during the day especially north of PHL.
Going into next week, the upper low moves away and some ridging
aloft begins. High pressure moves overhead on Monday and then off
the coast on Tuesday. This will lead to moderating temperatures, but
also increasing moisture with SW return flow around the high.
Monday and Tuesday look dry but a chance of showers and
thunderstorms was included for Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
Tonight...Weakening showers end later this evening from near KILG to
near KACY southward, then perhaps a few more showers develop
overnight. VFR TO MVFR ceilings, with the greatest chance for
ceilings to remain VFR is at KABE and KTTN. There appears to be some
drier air arriving from the north this evening as the lower clouds
erode some, therefore the extent of MVFR ceilings through the night
is of lower confidence.
Some fog should develop especially later tonight at KMIV, KACY, KILG
and KRDG, however the extent is of lower confidence as it may depend
on the cloud cover. Light southwesterly winds, becoming light and
variable overall.
Thursday...Some local fog early, then any MVFR ceilings should
improve to VFR. Light and variable winds, becoming east then
southeast 4-8 knots in the afternoon.
OUTLOOK...
Thursday Night...MVFR/IFR conditions developing with low clouds,
fog and drizzle possible.
Friday...Showers and thunderstorms possible with temporary
MVFR/IFR conditions.
Friday Night...VFR conditions expected.
Saturday...Additional showers and thunderstorms possible with
temporary MVFR/IFR conditions. SW winds gusting 20-25 kt early,
becoming WNW later in the afternoon.
Sunday and Monday...Mostly VFR. Gusty NW winds 15-25 kt possible.
&&
.MARINE...
No headlines through Thursday. Light wind...generally 5 to 10 kt. Seas
at or below 3 feet (A persistent se 2 foot 9 second swell with
very little wind wave). Water temperatures are near normal...the
pool of anomalously warm water from the winter having shifted seaward
(eastward).
As a heads up: the rip current information will appear as a subcategory
within the marine section from this time forward (unless there is
a future change).
Rip Currents: Our Surf Zone Forecast (SRF) will begin May 20th,
530 am with twice a day forecasts through September (~530 AM
Day1, ~9 PM for the next day). Our forecasts will be updated at
any time we receive information that the forecast is significantly
in error, including the rip current formation risk (low, moderate,
high), which will be checked against the 1015 AM beach patrol
reports from June 13-Labor Day. This surf zone forecast page will
be news headlined on our home page www.weather.gov/phi for easy
access.
Also beginning May 20, on our homepage, we will host an Experimental
National Beach Forecast page which will have umbrellas locating
most of the beaches, whereby you can click and obtain beach specific
information. We think you`ll like it, though it may need some
adjusting of our crowded beach locations. There will be social
media announcements, both facebook and twitter. Additionally we
will post a nice 90 second science piece on rip current recognition.
OUTLOOK...
Thursday night through Saturday...Winds and seas expected to
remain below small craft advisory levels.
Saturday night and Sunday...NW winds may gust to 25 kt or higher.
Monday...Winds and seas below SCA levels.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...AMC/Gorse
Near Term...Gorse
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...AMC
Aviation...AMC/Gorse
Marine...AMC/Drag
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
551 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016
A mid-level upper trough was moving through Kansas early this
morning. The wave has very little moisture to work with so expect
mid clouds to exit the area this morning. After the shortwave
passes, plenty of large scale subsidence today and tonight. The
surface high is forecast to move through Kansas today with the ridge
axis cross our forecast area this evening. After the early morning
clouds depart, expect sunny skies and mild temperatures today. We
should mix fairly deep this afternoon and northwest winds should
reach the 10-20 mph range. The ridge passes this evening and
southwest boundary layer flow develops. With the surface ridge
across the southern plains late tonight, low-level moisture will be
slow to return.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016
On Friday, surface high pressure will have moved southeast of the
area as an area of low pressure located in central Nebraska begins
to move towards northeast Kansas. As this cold frontal boundary
passes, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. While
moisture is limited ahead of this surface front, a sharp gradient of
instability and 0-6 km shear of 40-50 kts may allow for some
stronger to severe storms to develop, mainly in east central Kansas.
Soundings indicate storms will be elevated with steep lapse rates
near the surface making strong winds and hail the main threats
Friday. By late Friday evening, any storms will be southeast of the
forecast area and cold air will begin to usher in behind the front.
Highs drop significantly on Saturday into the upper 50s and low 60s.
There is a small chance for showers early morning Saturday as a very
subtle wave passes over the area.
From here, the only dry time for the rest of the period looks to be
Saturday afternoon though Sunday morning. Models still do not have
a great handle on the overall pattern for next week, but it appears
that an upper level low over the northwest CONUS will be present
with waves ejecting over the central US. The best chances for
precipitation will be Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 550 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016
VFR conditions through the period. Added a wind period this
afternoon due to deep mixing which should result in gusty winds
during peak heating. Airmass will quickly decouple this evening.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Johnson
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
320 AM MDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Thu May 12 2016
TODAY-TONIGHT...FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES AREA. DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA SO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH
PERHAPS A SLIGHT EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIDGE
AXIS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. AT
THE SFC A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH
A 1025MB SFC HIGH MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES
DURING THE NIGHT WHICH SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES.
BETTER PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS THROUGH 7 AND 15 DAYS
SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER WITH
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY BUT DURING
THE NIGHT SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN PART
OF THE AREA AND ABOVE MENTIONED CLOUD COVER CONSIDERABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES (COMPARED TO FRIDAY) ARE EXPECTED. AM AIMING FOR HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 AM MDT Thu May 12 2016
For the long term period the GFS and European are in good agreement
Sunday with the placement and track of the closed low pressure
system in the Pacific northwest, as well as the ridge sitting over
the CWA. Come Monday, there are some major differences on the track
of the low. This poses a problem, especially with the potential for
severe weather. The GFS has a much more amplified trough, which has
been the case the last few nights, and the European has a much less
amplified trough that is much more north. With the trough moving in,
even with the differences between the models, there is a plethora of
moisture being pulled up from the Gulf of Mexico that will bring
chances for precipitation to the region Sunday onward. As for the
severe weather potential, Monday is looking like it could be a good
contender. The GFS has CAPE values up to 2200 J/kg around 00Z
Tuesday, bulk shear up to 60 kts, 700 mb open and closed shortwaves
and even DCAPE values reaching 800 J/kg over areas. All of those are
good indicators for potential severe weather but at this time the
certainty that the GFS will be the model that is true to reality is
hard to say, especially since the European is completely different
and temperatures are a little cool. So, as of right now will be
keeping showers as the main precipitation type but having chances
for thunderstorms Monday.
The remainder of the extended period continues to have chances for
precipitation. Wednesday may have a greater potential for
thunderstorms with a closed low moving over Nebraska. Temperatures
are expected to increase from the 50s and 60s Sunday through Tuesday
to the 70s Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Thu May 12 2016
For KGLD and KMCK...vfr conditions expected through the period.
West to southwest winds 10kts or less expected through the period
under a generally clear sky.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
337 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu May 12 2016
Upper-level energy has begun to lift northeast this morning with
large-scale subsidence increasing across western Kansas based on
water vapor imagery. Ahead of this upper-level energy, thunderstorms
developed across northern Oklahoma as a cold front continued to
push south of the region. Post frontal dry air has begun to advect
into western and central Kansas as surface high pressure began to
slowly push southeastward.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu May 12 2016
As shortwave energy lifts out of the central Plains, upper-level subsidence
will increase today as a resulting surface high pressure traverses the
region. With a drier post frontal airmass in place, ample insolation
and downsloping winds expect a pleasant day today with temperatures
climbing into the mid to upper 70s. Tonight as shortwave energy digs
southeast across the northern Plains, longwave upper-level troughing
will become amplified across the central CONUS. As a result, northwest
flow will develop and allow for a cool and dry Canadian airmass to
advect southward across the northern and eventually central Plains.
Based on current model guidance, the cold front associated with this
Canadian airmass is progged to approach central Kansas by the late
morning and early afternoon hours on Friday, before continuing to
track southward across south central and southeast Kansas later Friday
afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, moisture will begin to return
northward as surface high pressure slowly drops southeast of the region.
With a weakly capped atmosphere in place, given the increasing convergence
along the cold front across central Kansas coupled with isentropic
lift and warm/moist air advection, expect storms to develop during
the early to mid afternoon hours across central Kansas. As the front
continues to push south into south central and southeast Kansas later
on Friday, expect thunderstorm activity to become a bit more widespread
and possibly develop into a complex of thunderstorms due to the strong
convergence along the frontal boundary and the aforementioned weak
capping. With at least 1000-2000J/kg and 30-40knots 0-6km bulk shear
a few strong to severe storms will be possible. With forecast soundings
showing classic inverted-V characteristics at low-levels, skinny CAPE
profiles and ample dry mid-level air thinking that damaging winds
will be the primary threat, along with hail.
The surface cold front is expected to drop south into Oklahoma by
Saturday morning. A much cooler airmass will overspread the region
as with afternoon highs will be running about 10 degrees below average
for this time of year. There is a chance that showers and isolated
thunderstorms may redevelop on Saturday, especially across southern
Kansas, due to lingering elevated baroclinic zones. With very little,
if any, in the way of instability to work with have only kept mentions
of isolated thunder across far southern Kansas for now. Also, with the
medium range models trending slower with the arrival of widespread
precipitation chances, have opted to lower PoPs for Saturday night.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu May 12 2016
Sunday through the middle of the workweek looks to be cloudy with
below normal temperatures continuing. Little changes have been
made with the potential for showers and thunderstorms as the
medium range models continue to show upper-level energy lifting
out of the central/southern Rockies towards the end of the
weekend. However, the medium range models continue to diverge in
regards to the timing and placement of potential widespread
showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
Aviation concerns are expected to remain minimal through the next
24 hours.
Water vapor imagery shows an upper wave lifting across west-
central KS. This feature is generating some mid level clouds along
with some sprinkles. Confidence is high that VFR conditions will
remain in place tonight. By sunrise...clear skies should be in
place area wide. Northwest/north winds will come around to the
west and southwest by the early evening hours Thu.
Lawson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 77 52 80 48 / 10 0 30 30
Hutchinson 77 52 80 46 / 10 0 40 20
Newton 75 51 79 45 / 10 0 30 30
ElDorado 75 51 79 47 / 10 0 30 30
Winfield-KWLD 77 52 80 49 / 10 0 20 40
Russell 76 51 79 42 / 0 0 20 10
Great Bend 77 52 79 43 / 0 0 20 10
Salina 77 51 79 43 / 0 0 30 10
McPherson 76 50 79 43 / 0 0 40 20
Coffeyville 77 51 79 49 / 10 0 10 40
Chanute 76 51 79 47 / 10 0 20 40
Iola 75 50 78 47 / 0 0 20 40
Parsons-KPPF 76 51 79 48 / 10 0 20 40
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMR
SHORT TERM...JMR
LONG TERM...JMR
AVIATION...RBL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
222 AM MDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Wed May 11 2016
17Z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated trough in place
across northern plains, with clear closed circulation over North
Dakota. Of more importance to the Goodland CWA is the next short
wave trough moving over the four corners around the base of large
scale trough. With afternoon destabilization and period of large
scale ascent ahead of this trough, expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop over portions of Colorado and drift to
the east/southeast across the area. Overall instability fields are
limited, so aside from precip threat expect little overall impact.
Temps may dip down into the 30s in a few locations, but do not
expect any widespread frost or freeze conditions.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 AM MDT Thu May 12 2016
For the long term period the GFS and European are in good agreement
Sunday with the placement and track of the closed low pressure
system in the Pacific northwest, as well as the ridge sitting over
the CWA. Come Monday, there are some major differences on the track
of the low. This poses a problem, especially with the potential for
severe weather. The GFS has a much more amplified trough, which has
been the case the last few nights, and the European has a much less
amplified trough that is much more north. With the trough moving in,
even with the differences between the models, there is a plethora of
moisture being pulled up from the Gulf of Mexico that will bring
chances for precipitation to the region Sunday onward. As for the
severe weather potential, Monday is looking like it could be a good
contender. The GFS has CAPE values up to 2200 J/kg around 00Z
Tuesday, bulk shear up to 60 kts, 700 mb open and closed shortwaves
and even DCAPE values reaching 800 J/kg over areas. All of those are
good indicators for potential severe weather but at this time the
certainty that the GFS will be the model that is true to reality is
hard to say, especially since the European is completely different
and temperatures are a little cool. So, as of right now will be
keeping showers as the main precipitation type but having chances
for thunderstorms Monday.
The remainder of the extended period continues to have chances for
precipitation. Wednesday may have a greater potential for
thunderstorms with a closed low moving over Nebraska. Temperatures
are expected to increase from the 50s and 60s Sunday through Tuesday
to the 70s Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1138 PM MDT Wed May 11 2016
VFR conditions are expected for the TAFs. light westerly winds are
expected for the period. during the evening the winds will turn to
the south.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
626 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu May 12 2016
We adjusted sky cover to reflect the southward expansion of low
clouds (stratus) into southwest ND observed on satellite the last
several hours with this update. Otherwise, the going forecast was
largely on track. We will let the frost advisory over western ND
play out until its scheduled 13 UTC (8 am CDT) expiration time,
but only localized areas may have gotten cold enough for frost as
cloud cover and winds held temperatures up a bit overnight. In
fact, the wind may have prevented much frost formation even in
places where temperatures have approached 32 F.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu May 12 2016
The closed upper level low (with a coincident surface low) had lifted
northeast into southern Manitoba...and gusty northwest winds
continued bringing cold air into North Dakota. Temperatures were in
the mid 30s over the western third of North Dakota where the current
frost advisory is valid. Thus the advisory appears to be verifying.
This stacked system is forecast to move east into Ontario, and then
dumbbell around the Ontario/Manitoba area through the weekend. This
will result in a cool cyclonic northwesterly flow across the state.
A significant shortwave in the upper flow swings down across North
Dakota tonight...merging with a fast-moving shortwave emanating from
another closed low that is currently over British Columbia. This
will set up a tight baroclinic zone with a strong frontogenetic band
setting up across eastern Montana and western/southern North Dakota.
This will result in a band of rain showers (mixed with snow showers
late tonight) across southern North Dakota.
Widespread frost is expected tonight with a reinforcement of cold
air pushing south across the state. Freezing temperatures expected
across the north may result in a freeze warning needed. Will let the
day shift issue frost/freeze headlines so as to not have two
separate frost advisories out that might cause confusion to users.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu May 12 2016
Main highlight in the long term will be persistent frost advisories
or freeze warnings across western and central North Dakota each
night and early morning through Sunday morning. Cyclonic northwest
flow will keep the region cooler than normal along with periodic
chances for showers.
Dry Friday through Friday night with cooler air arriving behind the
departing upper shortwave from Thursday night. A widespread freeze
warning still looks likely Friday night into early Saturday morning.
For Saturday night, still looking like a possible freeze warning in
the southwest with a frost advisory elsewhere.
For Sunday through Thursday, it will be dry Sunday then
slight chances for showers return Monday through Wednesday as the
upper flow becomes cyclonic through Thursday. Afternoon high
temperatures should be in the low to mid 60s during this time
period. Overnight lows mainly from the mid 30s to mid 40s...and
frost advisories may be needed.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu May 12 2016
Widespread MVFR ceilings will impact all but far southwestern ND
through about 15 UTC. Conditions will improve from southwest to
northeast today, with VFR conditions returning to KDIK around 15
UTC, KISN and KBIS by 18 UTC, and KMOT and KJMS by early to mid
afternoon. Gusty northwest winds will continue today, especially
in central ND, thanks to low pressure in Ontario.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ this morning for NDZ001-
002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
331 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu May 12 2016
The closed upper level low (with a coincident surface low) had lifted
northeast into southern Manitoba...and gusty northwest winds
continued bringing cold air into North Dakota. Temperatures were in
the mid 30s over the western third of North Dakota where the current
frost advisory is valid. Thus the advisory appears to be verifying.
This stacked system is forecast to move east into Ontario, and then
dumbbell around the Ontario/Manitoba area through the weekend. This
will result in a cool cyclonic northwesterly flow across the state.
A significant shortwave in the upper flow swings down across North
Dakota tonight...merging with a fast-moving shortwave emanating from
another closed low that is currently over British Columbia. This
will set up a tight baroclinic zone with a strong frontogenetic band
setting up across eastern Montana and western/southern North Dakota.
This will result in a band of rain showers (mixed with snow showers
late tonight) across southern North Dakota.
Widespread frost is expected tonight with a reinforcement of cold
air pushing south across the state. Freezing temperatures expected
across the north may result in a freeze warning needed. Will let the
day shift issue frost/freeze headlines so as to not have two
separate frost advisories out that might cause confusion to users.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu May 12 2016
Main highlight in the long term will be persistent frost advisories
or freeze warnings across western and central North Dakota each
night and early morning through Sunday morning. Cyclonic northwest
flow will keep the region cooler than normal along with periodic
chances for showers.
Dry Friday through Friday night with cooler air arriving behind the
departing upper shortwave from Thursday night. A widespread freeze
warning still looks likely Friday night into early Saturday morning.
For Saturday night, still looking like a possible freeze warning in
the southwest with a frost advisory elsewhere.
For Sunday through Thursday, it will be dry Sunday then
slight chances for showers return Monday through Wednesday as the
upper flow becomes cyclonic through Thursday. Afternoon high
temperatures should be in the low to mid 60s during this time
period. Overnight lows mainly from the mid 30s to mid 40s...and
frost advisories may be needed.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu May 12 2016
Surface low pressure will continue to produce gusty northwest
winds across southwest North Dakota. Low vfr to high mvfr
conditions will prevail at all TAF sites due to ceilings through the
overnight hours. Expect kdik and kisn to become vfr around 14z with
vfr at kmot/kbis around 16z-18z and aft 18z at kjms.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ this morning for NDZ001-
002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
324 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu May 12 2016
A much cooler pattern setting up. Upper level low is now near
Winnipeg with sfc low in same location just north of Winnipeg.
wraparound showers have been few and far between into north
central North Dakota. Wraparound stratocu covers much of the
North Dakota except the southeast and into much of northwestern
and west central Minnesota also in the dry slot. As sfc/upr low
slowly advance northeast the stratocu clouds will spread east
today as will increasing westerly winds. As for
precipitation, will maintain some very low pops for a light
shower or sprinkle shower in the far nrn RRV into nw MN closer to
colder air aloft but overall wraparound precip is quite minimal.
Clouds likely to hold in most areas tonight. As for tonight
temps, clouds should prevent a big fall but force of cold air
alone should send temps down to near freezing in far nrn fcst
area. Did include patchy frost in far nw areas though with clouds
and wind an actual white frost is not anticipated but temps low
enough for some impacts possibly. No headlines issued but
something to continue to look at. Temps below freezing even with
clouds and wind would pose more of a problem for sensitive
plants/crops and if temps do look like they may fall to around 30
then headlines may be necessary for late tonight.
Also tonight, a short wave will move east-southeast through
southern SD with some light rain chances along the SD border late
tonight.
Main colder air surge to arrive Friday as a vort max rotates back
south around the departing upper low and moves into the RRV by 12z
Friday. This will drop south and colder air will move in gusty
north- northwest winds. High temps on friday in the 40s. Could be
a few light showers or sprinkles but that is about it.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu May 12 2016
Issue Friday night will be temps. If any night will see
widespread sub 32 degree readings it would be the 07z to 13z
Saturday period. 850 mb temps bottom out in the -8 to -11C range.
Not an ideal radiational cooling situation as clouds may hold on
ne ND into nrn MN with best chc of clearing sw fcst area. But
even with clouds and some wind lows in the 28-32 range seem quite
likely. Will continue to highlight this in social media products
and HWO.
Otherwise Saturday will likely see a mix of cloud and sun. A few
models spit out light precip Saturday as a weak short wave drops
south. Did leave in a low pop for mainly ne ND and nw MN. Did drop
any pops Saturday night per coord with MPX. Depending on sky
cover, lows late Saturday night could be around freezing in
eastern fcst area.
Sunday-Wednesday...Eastern North America upper trough will break
down early in the period although the GFS remains more persistent
in maintaining somewhat cooler cyclonic flow across the region.
Overall expect a split flow pattern to develop with temps fairly
seasonable to slightly below average. Given differences in the
upper air pattern among models confidence in precip chances is low
but have maintained some low pops for early next week. Currently
not expecting signficant precipitation during this period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
DVL has gone MVFR and will need to watch for potential for upper
end of IFR range as CIGS are dropping a bit quicker than initially
advertised. Other sites should be VFR through the night with
TVF/GFK/BJI having potential for MVFR near sunrise (FAR expected
to stay VFR through TAF periods). CIGS will begin to improve
tomorrow afternoon as wind speeds pick up and low pressure system
begins to move into Ontario.
&&
.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Makowski/Riddle
AVIATION...Speicher
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1231 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu May 12 2016
Cold advection continues to push into the state with gusty northwest
winds. Frost advisory looking valid with some areas in the northwest
in the mid to upper 30s. Clouds and wind should keep temperatures
from falling below freezing over a large area.
UPDATE Issued at 944 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
Winds continue to diminish across the west but will remain breezy
which should at least keep the minimum temperatures from
falling into the 20s. So the frost advisory looking good
especially as Crosby now at 37 degrees.
UPDATE Issued at 649 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
The trend has been for winds to slowly decrease and the wind
advisory will be allowed to expire at 7 pm CDT. Otherwise the
upper low continues to meander around southwest Manitoba. Still
expect gradual clearing across the west later tonight and the
frost advisory will begin after 4 am CDT. The best chance for
showers this evening remains north central.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
For the near term, through late this afternoon is the ongoing wind
advisory in the southwest. This remains on track with sustained
northwest winds between 25kt and 30kt with gusts to 40kt. Current
advisory remains in good standing and no changes needed.
The latest water vapor imagery details a closed mid/upper level low
circulating over north central North Dakota. This low is forecast to
eject into Manitoba tonight, and then dumbbell around Ontario over
the weekend. The net result will be a dominant northwest flow into
North Dakota with periodic mid/upper level shortwaves rotating
around the low and sliding across western and central North Dakota
resulting in cooler temperatures along with periodic chances for
showers.
Visible satellite imagery and surface observations reveal a wide
swath of strato-cumulus clouds associated with a low level
cold/moist pocket of air underneath the large upper low. The
experimental HRRR shows another round of clouds shift from
northwest to southeast tonight associated with an 850mb cold
pocket nosing into western and central North Dakota. These clouds
will be most notable in northern and central North Dakota, with
clouds gradually thinning in western North Dakota late tonight.
For the short term period tonight through Thursday, scattered rain
showers across north central North Dakota will slowly shift into the
Turtle Mountains tonight in association with the movement of the
upper low. An isolated shower southwest and south central possible
until sunset this evening.
The main weather impact comes late tonight into early Thursday
morning, as a partly cloudy sky develops and winds slowly diminish
west. This leads to temperatures falling into the mid 30s. A
frost advisory has been issued across the west late tonight into
early Thursday morning. Too many clouds will remain across the
central North Dakota for much of an impact.
On Thursday, a dry day is expected with partly to mostly cloudy
conditions. Breezy northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph will continue
with highs mostly in the 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
Main highlight in the long term will be persistent frost advisories
or freeze warnings across western and central North Dakota each
night and early morning through Sunday morning. Cyclonic northwest
flow will keep the region cooler than normal along with periodic
chances for showers.
For Thursday night, a mid/upper level shortwave (700mb- 500mb) will
rotate around the aforementioned upper low and shift south into
western North Dakota Thursday evening. A surface low pressure will
slide from southeast Montana into western South Dakota. Weak low
level convergence will set up in southwest North Dakota Thursday
night. The approach of the shortwave and a 90kt 300mb jet will
provide enough ascent for a chance of showers southwest and far
southern North Dakota Thursday night. A freeze warning appears
likely for most of western and central North Dakota with the
exception for the far southwest and into south central North Dakota
where a frost advisory seems more likely at this time.
Dry Friday through Friday night with cooler air arriving behind the
departing upper shortwave from Thursday. A widespread freeze warning
looks likely Friday night into early Saturday morning.
For Saturday, another shortwave and jet streak shift across central
North Dakota for a chance of rain in the afternoon. Behind the
shortwave Saturday night, a possible freeze warning in the southwest
with a frost advisory elsewhere remains feasible.
For Sunday through Wednesday, it will be dry Sunday then chances for
showers return Monday through Wednesday as the upper flow remains
loosely cyclonic Monday through Wednesday. Afternoon high
temperatures rebound into the lower and mid 60s Monday through
Wednesday. Possible frost advisory in the southwest Monday and
Tuesday mornings, but coverage appears minimal at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu May 12 2016
Surface low pressure will continue to produce gusty northwest
winds across southwest North Dakota. Low vfr to high mvfr
conditions will prevail at all TAF sites due to ceilings through the
overnight hours. Expect kdik and kisn to become vfr around 14z with
vfr at kmot/kbis around 16z-18z and aft 18z at kjms.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Frost Advisory from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/
this morning for NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-
044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
618 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
An active upcoming seven day period. A warm front will approach
the region from the south tonight. A cold or occluded front will
track across the region, from west to east, Friday afternoon.
Another cold front will cross the area late on Saturday. An area
of low pressure will strengthen across New England over the
weekend and move into southeast Canada by Sunday. A third cold
front will approach the region from the north on Monday. High
pressure is forecast to return to the area on Tuesday. A warm
front will lift north through the region on Wednesday. A fourth
cold front will track through the mid-atlantic on Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Tonight...skies may be partly cloudy or clear in NJ to start,
while elsewhere...partly cloudy to cloudy. Eventually, it becomes
cloud everywhere late. Mild with a light south wind. Lows 5 to 10f
above normal most of the area. Showers from the west may spill
into the forecast area, reaching I-95 toward 6AM or 7AM.
If there is to be fog...and I don`t think there will be much...it
should be mostly e Pa and e MD. for now have patchy fog in the
fcst, mainly late excepting se DE where fog may be developing now.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Widespread showers across the area precede and accompany a cold
front, especially 15z-19z with a southerly wind 5 to 15 mph.
showers may quit completely during early or mid afternoon with
possible heating thereafter generating a shower or a thunderstorm
toward days end, especially e PA and the Delmarva. High temps near
normal. Pwat is up near 1.65 inches so any showers could be
moderate to heavy. For now we fcst the heaviest rain during the
morning per multimodels and WPC guidance. Winds behind the cold
front will likely become gusty from the west around 15 to 20 mph
late in the day. Isolated rainfall amounts of an inch easily
possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Overview, an active, progressive period to come. For reference,
normal temperature values for Philadelphia are in the low 70s and
low 50s. The period starts with the cold front pushing off the
coast Friday evening. A second cold front will push through the
region on Saturday later in the day. A good gradient sets up for
Sunday with surface low pressure near Maine and high pressure
building in from the southwest. Another cold front will approach
the region from the north on Monday. High pressure will be the
rule on Tuesday. A warm front will be in play on Wednesday,
followed by a cold frontal passage on Thursday.
Friday night, Precipitation should be well off the coast by late
evening. Prior to this, instability and pw`s around 1.5 inches
could produce some decent rains in thunderstorms. Behind the
front, a period of gusty winds up to 30 mph can be expected. Winds
will relax overnight. At or above normal overnight lows expected.
Saturday and Saturday night, A second cold front will move across
the area on Saturday, mainly during the afternoon hours.
Instability redevelops and a favorable H5 jet tracks over the
region. For this reason, SPC has included much of the area in
marginal. Winds will pick up late morning and early afternoon.
Once again, the region could see gusty winds in the 25 to 30 mph
range. Dry weather will return overnight Saturday night.
Temperatures on Saturday will be at or above normal. They will be
below normal Saturday night.
Sunday and Sunday night, Another breezy day in store as low
pressure strengthens to our north and high pressure builds to our
southwest. Some light sprinkles of light showers will be possible
across our north and west zones as a short wave tracks through
aloft and the surface flow remains strong out of the NW. Below
normal temperatures are expected Sunday and Sunday night. Frost is
not out of the question across NW NJ and the southern Poconos.
Monday and Monday night, Another cold front is forecast to
approach the region from the north. The front looks moisture
starved. It doesn`t look like precipitation, if any, will sink
further south than our north and west zones. Another gusty day
with winds approaching 30 mph. Dry weather will continue into
Monday night as high pressure builds briefly builds across the
area. Temperatures are still expected to be below normal, but will
rebound some from Sunday and Sunday night.
Tuesday and Tuesday night, High pressure is forecast to be in
control on Tuesday, but weaken and yield to an approaching warm
front on Tuesday night. POPS are back in the forecast on Tuesday
night. Temperatures are expected to be approaching normal levels.
Wednesday into Thursday, Unsettled with both a warm front and
cold frontal passage in play. POPS are painted in the grids, with
some thunder included. Normal temperatures expected, but
confidence is low because the extent of cloud cover will play a
role. In addition, where the warm front sets up will also be a
factor.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight...VFR becoming MVFR conditions in st/fog/scattered
showers late. patchy ifr conditions possible late. Light south
wind.
Friday...Showers (some of them moderate to heavy) precede and
accompany a cold frontal passage. Isolated or scattered
thunderstorms expected, especially midday. MVFR or IFR CIGS and
VSBYS. Gusty west-northwest winds behind the front of 15-20 knots
with improving conditions late in the day.
OUTLOOK...
Friday night...VFR expected behind the cold front. Gusty
northwest winds possible in the evening along with some showers.
Saturday...VFR becoming MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms.
Gusty southwest winds in the 20-25 KT range ahead of the cold
front early, and becoming west-northwest behind it.
Saturday night...VFR expected.
Sunday...Generally VFR. Scattered showers possible during the day
for KABE and KRDG. Gusty west-northwest winds everywhere. 25-30
KTS possible.
Sunday night...VFR expected.
Monday...VFR with gusty west to northwest winds 25-30 knots
possible.
Monday night and Tuesday...VFR expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below small craft advisory
conditions through Friday. However, fog may become a marine hazard
late tonight and especially Friday morning. (dewpoints rising to
or above the sst Friday morning on southerly flow).
Seas are expected to stay around 2 feet or less with a persistent
southeast swell around 8-9 seconds. Winds should remain near or
below 15 kt through tonight, though direction will shift from east
southeast to southerly overnight as a warm front lifts through the
region. winds on Friday southerly, shifting to west late in the
day.
OUTLOOK...
Friday night and Saturday, Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions
expected at this time. But keep a close on eye on the forecast
with a cold front expected in the afternoon. Thunderstorms are
possible. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be strongest right
along the beaches where mixing will be the best. With water temps
where they are, less wind is expected further off the beach.
Saturday night through Monday, Although precipitation should be
minimal, it should be an active period with Small Craft Advisory
conditions through the period.
Tuesday, Sub SCA conditions expected. Showers possible.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Kruzdlo
Near Term...Drag
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...Kruzdlo
Aviation...Drag/Kruzdlo
Marine...Drag/Kruzdlo
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
333 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
An active upcoming seven day period. A warm front will approach
the region from the south tonight. A cold or occluded front will
track across the region, from west to east, Friday afternoon.
Another cold front will cross the area late on Saturday. An area
of low pressure will strengthen across New England over the
weekend and move into southeast Canada by Sunday. A third cold
front will approach the region from the north on Monday. High
pressure is forecast to return to the area on Tuesday. A warm
front will lift north through the region on Wednesday. A fourth
cold front will track through the mid-atlantic on Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Late today...skies are clearing in s NJ as of 3 PM and may clear a
bit in DE/e MD and E PA.
Tonight...skies may be partly cloudy or clear in NJ to start,
while elsewhere...partly cloudy to cloudy. Eventually, it becomes
cloud everywhere late. Mild with a light south wind. Lows 5 to 10f
above normal most of the area. Showers from the west may spill into
the forecast area, reaching I-95 toward 6AM or 7AM.
If there is to be fog...and I don`t think there will be much...it
should be mostly e Pa and e MD. for now have patchy fog in the
fcst, mainly late excepting se DE where fog may be developing now.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Widespread showers across the area precede and accompany a cold
front, especially 15z-19z with a southerly wind 5 to 15 mph.
showers may quit completely during early or mid afternoon with
possible heating thereafter generating a shower or a thunderstorm
toward days end, especially e PA and the Delmarva. High temps near
normal. Pwat is up near 1.65 inches so any showers could be moderate
to heavy. For now we fcst the heaviest rain during the morning per
multimodels and WPC guidance. Winds behind the cold front will
likely become gusty from the west around 15 to 20 mph late in the
day. Isolated rainfall amounts of an inch easily possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Overview, an active, progressive period to come. For reference,
normal temperature values for Philadelphia are in the low 70s and
low 50s. The period starts with the cold front pushing off the
coast Friday evening. A second cold front will push through the
region on Saturday later in the day. A good gradient sets up for
Sunday with surface low pressure near Maine and high pressure
building in from the southwest. Another cold front will approach
the region from the north on Monday. High pressure will be the
rule on Tuesday. A warm front will be in play on Wednesday,
followed by a cold frontal passage on Thursday.
Friday night, Precipitation should be well off the coast by late
evening. Prior to this, instability and pw`s around 1.5 inches could
produce some decent rains in thunderstorms. Behind the front, a
period of gusty winds up to 30 mph can be expected. Winds will relax
overnight. At or above normal overnight lows expected.
Saturday and Saturday night, A second cold front will move across
the area on Saturday, mainly during the afternoon hours. Instability
redevelops and a favorable H5 jet tracks over the region. For this
reason, SPC has included much of the area in marginal. Winds will
pick up late morning and early afternoon. Once again, the region
could see gusty winds in the 25 to 30 mph range. Dry weather will
return overnight Saturday night. Temperatures on Saturday will be at
or above normal. They will be below normal Saturday night.
Sunday and Sunday night, Another breezy day in store as low pressure
strengthens to our north and high pressure builds to our southwest.
Some light sprinkles of light showers will be possible across our
north and west zones as a short wave tracks through aloft and the
surface flow remains strong out of the NW. Below normal temperatures
are expected Sunday and Sunday night. Frost is not out of the
question across NW NJ and the southern Poconos.
Monday and Monday night, Another cold front is forecast to approach
the region from the north. The front looks moisture starved. It
doesn`t look like precipitation, if any, will sink further south
than our north and west zones. Another gusty day with winds
approaching 30 mph. Dry weather will continue into Monday night as
high pressure builds briefly builds across the area. Temperatures
are still expected to be below normal, but will rebound some from
Sunday and Sunday night.
Tuesday and Tuesday night, High pressure is forecast to be in
control on Tuesday, but weaken and yield to an approaching warm
front on Tuesday night. POPS are back in the forecast on Tuesday
night. Temperatures are expected to be approaching normal levels.
Wednesday into Thursday, Unsettled with both a warm front and cold
frontal passage in play. POPS are painted in the grids, with some
thunder included. Normal temperatures expected, but confidence is
low because the extent of cloud cover will play a role. In addition,
where the warm front sets up will also be a factor.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Remainder of today...VFR sct-bkn aoa 3500 ft except patchy cigs near
2500 or 3000ft vcnty KILG, KMIV AND KRDG. A mostly light east to
southeast wind.
Tonight...VFR becoming MVFR conditions in st/fog/scattered showers
late. patchy ifr conditions possible late. Light south wind.
Friday...Showers (some of them moderate to heavy) precede and
accompany a cold frontal passage. Isolated or scattered
thunderstorms expected, especially midday. MVFR or IFR CIGS and
VSBYS. Gusty west-northwest winds behind the front of 15-20 knots
with improving conditions late in the day.
OUTLOOK...
Friday night...VFR expected behind the cold front. Gusty northwest
winds possible in the evening along with some showers.
Saturday...VFR becoming MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms. Gusty
southwest winds in the 20-25 KT range ahead of the cold front
early, and becoming west-northwest behind it.
Saturday night...VFR expected.
Sunday...Generally VFR. Scattered showers possible during the day
for KABE and KRDG. Gusty west-northwest winds everywhere. 25-30 KTS
possible.
Sunday night...VFR expected.
Monday...VFR with gusty west to northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.
Monday night and Tuesday...VFR expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below small craft advisory conditions
through Friday. However, fog may become a marine hazard late tonight
and especially Friday morning. (dewpoints rising to or above the
sst Friday morning on southerly flow).
Seas are expected to stay around 2 feet or less with a persistent
southeast swell around 8-9 seconds. Winds should remain near or
below 15 kt through tonight, though direction will shift from east
southeast to southerly overnight as a warm front lifts through the
region. winds on Friday southerly, shifting to west late in the
day.
OUTLOOK...
Friday night and Saturday, Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions
expected at this time. But keep a close on eye on the forecast with
a cold front expected in the afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be strongest right along the
beaches where mixing will be the best. With water temps where they
are, less wind is expected further off the beach.
Saturday night through Monday, Although precipitation should be
minimal, it should be an active period with Small Craft Advisory
conditions through the period.
Tuesday, Sub SCA conditions expected. Showers possible.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Kruzdlo
Near Term...Drag
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...Kruzdlo
Aviation...Drag/Kruzdlo
Marine...Drag/Kruzdlo
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
207 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore of New England today, while a warm
front remains to our south. The warm front will lift northward across
our area overnight, followed by a west to east cold frontal passage
Friday afternoon. Another cold front will cross the area late on
Saturday. An area of low pressure will strengthen across New
England over the weekend and move into southeast Canada through
Monday. Another cold front or surface trough will cross the area
Sunday, followed by yet another one on Monday. High pressure is
forecast to return to the area late Monday into early Tuesday. An
area of low pressure is expected to lift a warm front across the
area Tuesday night into Wednesday, followed by a cold front
Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM ESTF and 140 PM rereview: A nice day in progress with
clouds trying to spread up to KABE and KTTN but all those clouds
from s NJ through PHL and KABE newd should thin out and dissipate
later today. warmest temps near 80F near and north of I-78, mainly
KABE to KSMQ and KFWN. Light, mainly south to southeast wind.
Yesterdays rain via DEOS and CoCoRAHS reports deposited 0.7 to
1.2 inches in Sussex County of southern DE.
Tonight...skies may be partly cloudy or clear in NJ to start,
while elsewhere...partly cloudy to cloudy. Eventually, it becomes
cloud everywhere late. Mild with a light south wind. Lows 5 to
10f above normal most of the area. Showers from the west may spill
into the forecast area, reaching I-95 toward 6 or 7AM.
If there is to be fog...and I don`t think there will be much...it
should be mostly e Pa and e MD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Widespread showers across the area precede and accompany a cold
front, especially 15z-19z with a southerly wind 5 to 15 mph.
showers may quit completely during early or mid afternoon with
possible heating thereafter generating a shower or a thunderstorm
toward days end, especially e PA and the Delmarva. High temps near
normal. Pwat is up near 1.65 inches so any showers could be
moderate to heavy. Winds behind the cold front will likely become
gusty around 15 to 20 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Drier weather is expected overnight Friday behind the cold front.
On Saturday, another cold front will move across the area. There
will remain some instability across the area, although PW values
are forecast to be less. However, the dynamics with Saturday`s
front may be stronger with a stronger jet aloft. So while PW
values may be less, there could still be a period of moderate to
heavy rainfall. Gusty winds are expected behind the frontal
passage with gusts of 25 to 30 mph expected. Dry weather will
return overnight Saturday night, along with cooler temperatures.
An area of low pressure will strengthen to our north, while high
pressure begins to build to our west. This will keep a steady
breeze across the area overnight.
Low pressure will remain to our north on Sunday, with another
frontal boundary or surface trough expected to cross the area
later in the day. While PW values drop below 0.5 inches, which
would normally would indicate a precipitation free forecast, there
remains steep low level lapse rates, along with some higher RH
values in the low-mid levels. As a short wave/vorticity impulse
slides across the area, there could be some light sprinkles make
their way into our area during the day within the northwest flow.
Winds during the day could again gust 25 to 30 mph.
Yet another frontal boundary/surface trough is expected on
Monday, however, with limited lapse rates and moisture, no
precipitation is expected. However, an increase in clouds cover
and gusty afternoon winds of 25 to 30 mph are once again expected.
Dry weather will continue into Monday night as high pressure
builds briefly builds across the area.
From Tuesday through Wednesday, there are some timing differences
with the next weather system. An area of low pressure is forecast
to eventually lift through the Ohio River Valley and into New
England, while lifting a warm front across the area, then pushing
a cold front across the area. The GFS is faster than the ECMWF,
bring the warm front through Tuesday night/Wednesday and the cold
front Wednesday night/Thursday. The ECMWF is about 12-24 hours
slower. For now, we will continue with a chance of showers Tuesday
through Wednesday. The best probabilities will be focused around
individual short wave/vorticity impulses. There could be some
instability ahead of the cold front, so we`ve included thunder in
the Wednesday forecast for now.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
rest of TODAY...VFR sct-bkn aoa 3500 ft except patchy cigs near 2500
or 3000ft vcnty KILG, KMIV AND KRDG. A mostly light east to southeast
wind.
Tonight...VFR becoming MVFR conds in st/fog/scattered showers late.
Light south wind.
Friday...Showers precede and accompany a cold frontal passage. Isolated
thunderstorms possible (thunderstorms if any primarily e PA, and the
Delmarva). MVFR or IFR CIGS and VSBYS. Gusty west-northwest winds
behind the front of 15-20 knots.
OUTLOOK...
Friday night...VFR expected.
Saturday...Another cold frontal passage with additional showers and
thunderstorms which could lower CIGS and VSBYS to MVFR or IFR again.
Gusty southwest winds 20-25 knots early, becoming west-northwest
behind the cold front.
Saturday...VFR expected.
Sunday...Generally VFR. Scattered showers possible during the day.
Gusty west-northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.
Sunday night...VFR expected.
Monday...VFR with gusty west to northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below small craft advisory conditions
through Friday. however, fog may become a marine hazard Friday morning.
Seas are expected to stay around 2 feet or less with a persistent
southeast swell around 8-9 seconds. Winds should remain near or below
15 kt through tonight, though direction will shift from east southeast
to southerly overnight as a warm front lifts through the region.
Winds on Friday southerly, shifting to west late in the day.
OUTLOOK...
Friday night-Saturday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions
expected. Cold frontal passage Saturday, which could cause winds
to gust around 20 knots at times.
Saturday night-Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely
through the period with cold frontal passages Sunday and Monday.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Drag/Robertson
Near Term...Drag
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Drag/Robertson 206P
Marine...Drag/Robertson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
156 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore of New England today, while a warm
front remains to our south. The warm front will lift northward across
our area overnight, followed by a west to east cold frontal passage
Friday afternoon. Another cold front will cross the area late on
Saturday. An area of low pressure will strengthen across New
England over the weekend and move into southeast Canada through
Monday. Another cold front or surface trough will cross the area
Sunday, followed by yet another one on Monday. High pressure is
forecast to return to the area late Monday into early Tuesday. An
area of low pressure is expected to lift a warm front across the
area Tuesday night into Wednesday, followed by a cold front
Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM ESTF and 140 PM rereview: A nice day in progress with
clouds trying to spread up to KABE and KTTN but all those clouds
from s NJ through PHL and KABE newd should thin out and dissipate
later today. warmest temps near 80F near and north of I-78, mainly
KABE to KSMQ and KFWN. Light, mainly south to southeast wind.
Yesterdays rain via DEOS and CoCoRAHS reports deposited 0.7 to
1.2 inches in Sussex County of southern DE.
Tonight...skies may be partly cloudy or clear in NJ to start,
while elsewhere...partly cloudy to cloudy. Eventually, it becomes
cloud everywhere late. Mild with a light south wind. Lows 5 to
10f above normal most of the area. Showers from the west may spill
into the forecast area, reaching I-95 toward 6 or 7AM.
If there is to be fog...and I don`t think there will be much...it
should be mostly e Pa and e MD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Widespread showers across the area precede and accompany a cold
front, especially 15z-19z with a southerly wind 5 to 15 mph.
showers may quit completely during early or mid afternoon with
possible heating thereafter generating a shower or a thunderstorm
toward days end, especially e PA and the Delmarva. High temps near
normal. Pwat is up near 1.65 inches so any showers could be
moderate to heavy. Winds behind the cold front will likely become
gusty around 15 to 20 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Drier weather is expected overnight Friday behind the cold front.
On Saturday, another cold front will move across the area. There
will remain some instability across the area, although PW values
are forecast to be less. However, the dynamics with Saturday`s
front may be stronger with a stronger jet aloft. So while PW
values may be less, there could still be a period of moderate to
heavy rainfall. Gusty winds are expected behind the frontal
passage with gusts of 25 to 30 mph expected. Dry weather will
return overnight Saturday night, along with cooler temperatures.
An area of low pressure will strengthen to our north, while high
pressure begins to build to our west. This will keep a steady
breeze across the area overnight.
Low pressure will remain to our north on Sunday, with another
frontal boundary or surface trough expected to cross the area
later in the day. While PW values drop below 0.5 inches, which
would normally would indicate a precipitation free forecast, there
remains steep low level lapse rates, along with some higher RH
values in the low-mid levels. As a short wave/vorticity impulse
slides across the area, there could be some light sprinkles make
their way into our area during the day within the northwest flow.
Winds during the day could again gust 25 to 30 mph.
Yet another frontal boundary/surface trough is expected on
Monday, however, with limited lapse rates and moisture, no
precipitation is expected. However, an increase in clouds cover
and gusty afternoon winds of 25 to 30 mph are once again expected.
Dry weather will continue into Monday night as high pressure
builds briefly builds across the area.
From Tuesday through Wednesday, there are some timing differences
with the next weather system. An area of low pressure is forecast
to eventually lift through the Ohio River Valley and into New
England, while lifting a warm front across the area, then pushing
a cold front across the area. The GFS is faster than the ECMWF,
bring the warm front through Tuesday night/Wednesday and the cold
front Wednesday night/Thursday. The ECMWF is about 12-24 hours
slower. For now, we will continue with a chance of showers Tuesday
through Wednesday. The best probabilities will be focused around
individual short wave/vorticity impulses. There could be some
instability ahead of the cold front, so we`ve included thunder in
the Wednesday forecast for now.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
rest of TODAY...VFR sct-bkn aoa 3500 ft. A mostly light east to
southeast wind.
Tonight...VFR becoming MVFR conds in st/fog/scattered showers late.
Light south wind.
Friday...Showers precede and accompany a cold frontal passage. Isolated
thunderstorms possible (thunderstorms if any primarily e PA, and the
Delmarva). MVFR or IFR CIGS and VSBYS. Gusty west-northwest winds
behind the front of 15-20 knots.
OUTLOOK...
Friday night...VFR expected.
Saturday...Another cold frontal passage with additional showers and
thunderstorms which could lower CIGS and VSBYS to MVFR or IFR again.
Gusty southwest winds 20-25 knots early, becoming west-northwest
behind the cold front.
Saturday...VFR expected.
Sunday...Generally VFR. Scattered showers possible during the day.
Gusty west-northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.
Sunday night...VFR expected.
Monday...VFR with gusty west to northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below small craft advisory conditions
through Friday. however, fog may become a marine hazard Friday morning.
Seas are expected to stay around 2 feet or less with a persistent
southeast swell around 8-9 seconds. Winds should remain near or below
15 kt through tonight, though direction will shift from east southeast
to southerly overnight as a warm front lifts through the region.
Winds on Friday southerly, shifting to west late in the day.
OUTLOOK...
Friday night-Saturday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions
expected. Cold frontal passage Saturday, which could cause winds
to gust around 20 knots at times.
Saturday night-Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely
through the period with cold frontal passages Sunday and Monday.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Drag/Robertson
Near Term...Drag 157PM
Short Term...Drag 157PM
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Drag/Robertson 157PM
Marine...Drag/Robertson 157PM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1040 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore of New England today, while a warm
front remains to our south. The warm front will lift northward across
our area overnight, followed by a west to east cold frontal passage
Friday afternoon. Another cold front will cross the area late on
Saturday. An area of low pressure will strengthen across New
England over the weekend and move into southeast Canada through
Monday. Another cold front or surface trough will cross the area
Sunday, followed by yet another one on Monday. High pressure is
forecast to return to the area late Monday into early Tuesday. An
area of low pressure is expected to lift a warm front across the
area Tuesday night into Wednesday, followed by a cold front
Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 am ESTF: Fog has thinned and dissipated except parts of the
Delmarva but overall the fog does not look to be substantial. A
very nice day is in progress..much nicer than I anticipated
yesterday. Temperatures were raised several degrees and won`t be
surprised to see around 80F NNJ and e central PA. Light wind will
be mostly east to southeast. Skycover...sc cloudiness should
increase with heating and cirrus is also expected this afternoon.
Yesterdays rain by the way via DEOS and CoCoRAHS reports deposited
0.7 to 1.2 inches in Sussex County of southern DE.
Tonight...no change to mid shift forecast. Showers should arrive
toward dawn in e PA. If there is to be fog...and I don`t think
there will be much...it should be mostly e Pa and e MD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A cold front will move across the area from west to east on Friday.
There will be some instability across the area, and precipitable
water values increase across the area to around 1.5 inches. Therefore
there will be the chance for thunderstorms to accompany the rainfall
that is likely. Some showers and thunderstorms could produce a period
of moderate to heavy rainfall. Winds behind the front will likely
become gusty around 15 to 20 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Drier weather is expected overnight Friday behind the cold front.
On Saturday, another cold front will move across the area. There
will remain some instability across the area, although PW values
are forecast to be less. However, the dynamics with Saturday`s
front may be stronger with a stronger jet aloft. So while PW
values may be less, there could still be a period of moderate to
heavy rainfall. Gusty winds are expected behind the frontal
passage with gusts of 25 to 30 mph expected. Dry weather will
return overnight Saturday night, along with cooler temperatures.
An area of low pressure will strengthen to our north, while high
pressure begins to build to our west. This will keep a steady
breeze across the area overnight.
Low pressure will remain to our north on Sunday, with another
frontal boundary or surface trough expected to cross the area
later in the day. While PW values drop below 0.5 inches, which
would normally would indicate a precipitation free forecast, there
remains steep low level lapse rates, along with some higher RH
values in the low-mid levels. As a short wave/vorticity impulse
slides across the area, there could be some light sprinkles make
their way into our area during the day within the northwest flow.
Winds during the day could again gust 25 to 30 mph.
Yet another frontal boundary/surface trough is expected on
Monday, however, with limited lapse rates and moisture, no
precipitation is expected. However, an increase in clouds cover
and gusty afternoon winds of 25 to 30 mph are once again expected.
Dry weather will continue into Monday night as high pressure
builds briefly builds across the area.
From Tuesday through Wednesday, there are some timing differences
with the next weather system. An area of low pressure is forecast
to eventually lift through the Ohio River Valley and into New
England, while lifting a warm front across the area, then pushing
a cold front across the area. The GFS is faster than the ECMWF,
bring the warm front through Tuesday night/Wednesday and the cold
front Wednesday night/Thursday. The ECMWF is about 12-24 hours
slower. For now, we will continue with a chance of showers Tuesday
through Wednesday. The best probabilities will be focused around
individual short wave/vorticity impulses. There could be some
instability ahead of the cold front, so we`ve included thunder in
the Wednesday forecast for now.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
TODAY...VFR sct-bkn aoa 3500 ft, though patches of cigs 1500-2500 ft
through 18z kilg, kmiv and kacy. A mostly light east to southeast
wind.
Tonight...VFR becoming MVFR conds in st/fog/scattered showers late.
Light south wind.
Friday...Showers and thunderstorms possible with a cold frontal
passage. MVFR or IFR CIGS and VSBYS. Gusty west-northwest winds
behind the front of 15-20 knots.
OUTLOOK...
Friday night...VFR expected.
Saturday...Another cold frontal passage with additional showers and
thunderstorms which could lower CIGS and VSBYS to MVFR or IFR again.
Gusty southwest winds 20-25 knots early, becoming west-northwest
behind the cold front.
Saturday...VFR expected.
Sunday...Generally VFR. Scattered showers possible during the day.
Gusty west-northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.
Sunday night...VFR expected.
Monday...VFR with gusty west to northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below small craft advisory conditions
through Friday. Seas are expected to stay around 2 feet or less
with a persistent southeast swell around 8-9 seconds. Winds should
remain near or below 15 kt through tonight, though direction will
shift from easterly or southeasterly today and this evening to
southerly overnight as a warm front lifts through the region.
Winds on Friday southerly, shifting to west late in the day.
OUTLOOK...
Friday night-Saturday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions
expected. Cold frontal passage Saturday, which could cause winds
to gust around 20 knots at times.
Saturday night-Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely
through the period with cold frontal passages Sunday and Monday.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Drag/Robertson
Near Term...Drag/Johnson
Short Term...Drag/Johnson
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Drag/Johnson/Robertson 1040AM
Marine...Drag/Johnson/Robertson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1020 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore of New England today, while a warm
front remains to our south. The warm front will lift northward across
our area overnight, followed by a west to east cold frontal passage
Friday afternoon. Another cold front will cross the area late on
Saturday. An area of low pressure will strengthen across New
England over the weekend and move into southeast Canada through
Monday. Another cold front or surface trough will cross the area
Sunday, followed by yet another one on Monday. High pressure is
forecast to return to the area late Monday into early Tuesday. An
area of low pressure is expected to lift a warm front across the
area Tuesday night into Wednesday, followed by a cold front
Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 am ESTF: Fog has thinned and dissipated except parts of the
Delmarva but overall the fog does not look to be substantial. A
very nice day is in progress..much nicer than I anticipated
yesterday. Temperatures were raised several degrees and won`t be
surprised to see around 80F NNJ and e central PA. Light wind will
be mostly east to southeast. Skycover...sc cloudiness should
increase with heating and cirrus is also expected this afternoon.
Yesterdays rain by the way via DEOS and CoCoRAHS reports deposited
0.7 to 1.2 inches in Sussex County of southern DE.
Tonight...no change to mid shift forecast. Showers should arrive
toward dawn in e PA. If there is to be fog...and I don`t think
there will be much...it should be mostly e Pa and e MD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A cold front will move across the area from west to east on Friday.
There will be some instability across the area, and precipitable
water values increase across the area to around 1.5 inches. Therefore
there will be the chance for thunderstorms to accompany the rainfall
that is likely. Some showers and thunderstorms could produce a period
of moderate to heavy rainfall. Winds behind the front will likely
become gusty around 15 to 20 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Drier weather is expected overnight Friday behind the cold front.
On Saturday, another cold front will move across the area. There
will remain some instability across the area, although PW values
are forecast to be less. However, the dynamics with Saturday`s
front may be stronger with a stronger jet aloft. So while PW
values may be less, there could still be a period of moderate to
heavy rainfall. Gusty winds are expected behind the frontal
passage with gusts of 25 to 30 mph expected. Dry weather will
return overnight Saturday night, along with cooler temperatures.
An area of low pressure will strengthen to our north, while high
pressure begins to build to our west. This will keep a steady
breeze across the area overnight.
Low pressure will remain to our north on Sunday, with another
frontal boundary or surface trough expected to cross the area
later in the day. While PW values drop below 0.5 inches, which
would normally would indicate a precipitation free forecast, there
remains steep low level lapse rates, along with some higher RH
values in the low-mid levels. As a short wave/vorticity impulse
slides across the area, there could be some light sprinkles make
their way into our area during the day within the northwest flow.
Winds during the day could again gust 25 to 30 mph.
Yet another frontal boundary/surface trough is expected on
Monday, however, with limited lapse rates and moisture, no
precipitation is expected. However, an increase in clouds cover
and gusty afternoon winds of 25 to 30 mph are once again expected.
Dry weather will continue into Monday night as high pressure
builds briefly builds across the area.
From Tuesday through Wednesday, there are some timing differences
with the next weather system. An area of low pressure is forecast
to eventually lift through the Ohio River Valley and into New
England, while lifting a warm front across the area, then pushing
a cold front across the area. The GFS is faster than the ECMWF,
bring the warm front through Tuesday night/Wednesday and the cold
front Wednesday night/Thursday. The ECMWF is about 12-24 hours
slower. For now, we will continue with a chance of showers Tuesday
through Wednesday. The best probabilities will be focused around
individual short wave/vorticity impulses. There could be some
instability ahead of the cold front, so we`ve included thunder in
the Wednesday forecast for now.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
TODAY...VFR with a mostly east to southeast wind.
Tonight...VFR becoming MVFR conds in st/fog/scattered showers late.
Light south wind.
Friday...Showers and thunderstorms possible with a cold frontal
passage. MVFR or IFR CIGS and VSBYS. Gusty west-northwest winds
behind the front of 15-20 knots.
OUTLOOK...
Friday night...VFR expected.
Saturday...Another cold frontal passage with additional showers and
thunderstorms which could lower CIGS and VSBYS to MVFR or IFR again.
Gusty southwest winds 20-25 knots early, becoming west-northwest
behind the cold front.
Saturday...VFR expected.
Sunday...Generally VFR. Scattered showers possible during the day.
Gusty west-northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.
Sunday night...VFR expected.
Monday...VFR with gusty west to northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below small craft advisory conditions
through Friday. Seas are expected to stay around 2 feet or less
with a persistent southeast swell around 8-9 seconds. Winds should
remain near or below 15 kt through tonight, though direction will
shift from easterly or southeasterly today and this evening to
southerly overnight as a warm front lifts through the region.
Winds on Friday southerly, shifting to west late in the day.
OUTLOOK...
Friday night-Saturday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions
expected. Cold frontal passage Saturday, which could cause winds
to gust around 20 knots at times.
Saturday night-Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely
through the period with cold frontal passages Sunday and Monday.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Drag/Robertson 1020AM
Near Term...Drag/Johnson 1015 am
Short Term...Drag/Johnson 1020AM
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Drag/Johnson/Robertson 1015 am
Marine...Drag/Johnson/Robertson 1020AM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
341 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore of New England today, while a
frontal boundary remains to our south. This frontal boundary will
lift northward across the area overnight tonight as a warm front,
followed by a cold frontal passage Friday. Another frontal
boundary will cross the area late on Saturday. An area of low
pressure will strengthen across New England over the weekend and
move into southeast Canada through Monday. Another cold front or
surface trough will cross the area Sunday, followed by yet another
one on Monday. High pressure is forecast to return to the area
late Monday into early Tuesday. An area of low pressure is
expected to lift a warm front across the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday, followed by a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Fog has been slow to develop and the nearly saturated layer
appears to be quite shallow. Thus expect any morning fog to
dissipate within the first few hours after sunrise.
Through the day today, an upper level short wave ridge will slide
east over the region. As a result, expect dry conditions through
the day time hours. Light southeasterly low level flow could
temper high today, as well as a persistent marine layer along the
Coastal Plains through the morning hours. Still, with the
increasing 1000-500mb thickness values (thanks to the short wave
ridge), should see max temps a few degrees higher than yesterday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Warm front makes slow progress north through the region
overnight. In the mid and upper levels, the short wave ridge moves
off shore as the next short wave trough begins to approach the
region (but should remain west of the region through the overnight
hours.
In the wake of the warm front, moisture and warm air advection,
could lead to a few showers moving into our region, though the
best lift looks to stay west of our region through this time. &&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will move across the area from west to east on
Friday. There will be some instability across the area, and PW
values increase across the area to around 1.5 inches. Therefore
there will be the chance for thunderstorms to accompany the
rainfall that is likely. Some showers and thunderstorms could
produce a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. Winds behind the
front will likely become gusty around 15 to 20 mph. Drier weather
is expected overnight Friday behind the cold front.
On Saturday, another cold front will move across the area. There
will remain some instability across the area, although PW values
are forecast to be less. However, the dynamics with Saturday`s
front may be stronger with a stronger jet aloft. So while PW
values may be less, there could still be a period of moderate to
heavy rainfall. Gusty winds are expected behind the frontal
passage with gusts of 25 to 30 mph expected. Dry weather will
return overnight Saturday night, along with cooler temperatures.
An area of low pressure will strengthen to our north, while high
pressure begins to build to our west. This will keep a steady
breeze across the area overnight.
Low pressure will remain to our north on Sunday, with another
frontal boundary or surface trough expected to cross the area
later in the day. While PW values drop below 0.5 inches, which
would normally would indicate a precipitation free forecast, there
remains steep low level lapse rates, along with some higher RH
values in the low-mid levels. As a short wave/vorticity impulse
slides across the area, there could be some light sprinkles make
their way into our area during the day within the northwest flow.
Winds during the day could again gust 25 to 30 mph.
Yet another frontal boundary/surface trough is expected on
Monday, however, with limited lapse rates and moisture, no
precipitation is expected. However, an increase in clouds cover
and gusty afternoon winds of 25 to 30 mph are once again expected.
Dry weather will continue into Monday night as high pressure
builds briefly builds across the area.
From Tuesday through Wednesday, there are some timing differences
with the next weather system. An area of low pressure is forecast
to eventually lift through the Ohio River Valley and into New
England, while lifting a warm front across the area, then pushing
a cold front across the area. The GFS is faster than the ECMWF,
bring the warm front through Tuesday night/Wednesday and the cold
front Wednesday night/Thursday. The ECMWF is about 12-24 hours
slower. For now, we will continue with a chance of showers Tuesday
through Wednesday. The best probabilities will be focused around
individual short wave/vorticity impulses. There could be some
instability ahead of the cold front, so we`ve included thunder in
the Wednesday forecast for now.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Low clouds and fog are expected to affect the TAF sites
intermittently through 12Z, before slowly dissipating through the
morning hours. Most locations should return to VFR by 15Z. Once VFR
conditions return, expect them to continue through at least 06Z.
After 06z, low clouds and possibly light fog could move into the
region from the south as a warm front lifts through the region. In
addition, closer to 12Z, a few showers may move into the region from
the west. Either one of these factors could lead to MVFR, and
localized IFR conditions developing before 12Z.
OUTLOOK...
Friday...Showers and thunderstorms possible with a cold frontal
passage. MVFR or IFR CIGS and VSBYS likely. Gusty west-northwest
winds behind the front of 15-20 knots.
Friday night...VFR expected.
Saturday...Another cold frontal passage with additional showers and
thunderstorms which could lower CIGS and VSBYS to MVFR or IFR again.
Gusty southwest winds 20-25 knots early, becoming west-northwest
behind the cold front.
Saturday...VFR expected.
Sunday...Generally VFR. Scattered showers possible during the day.
Gusty west-northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.
Sunday night...VFR expected.
Monday...VFR with gusty west to northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below small craft advisory conditions.
Seas are expected to stay around 2 feet or less. Winds should remain
near or below 15 kt today and tonight, though direction will shift
from easterly or southeasterly today and this evening to southerly
overnight as a warm front lifts through the region.
OUTLOOK...
Friday-Saturday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Cold
frontal passages Friday and Saturday, which could cause winds to
gust around 20 knots at times.
Saturday night-Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely
through the period with cold frontal passages Sunday and Monday.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...Johnson
Short Term...Johnson
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Johnson/Robertson
Marine...Johnson/Robertson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
341 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore of New England today, while a
frontal boundary remains to our south. This frontal boundary will
lift northward across the area overnight tonight as a warm front,
followed by a cold frontal passage Friday. Another frontal
boundary will cross the area late on Saturday. An area of low
pressure will strengthen across New England over the weekend and
move into southeast Canada through Monday. Another cold front or
surface trough will cross the area Sunday, followed by yet another
one on Monday. High pressure is forecast to return to the area
late Monday into early Tuesday. An area of low pressure is
expected to lift a warm front across the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday, followed by a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Fog has been slow to develop and the nearly saturated layer
appears to be quite shallow. Thus expect any morning fog to
dissipate within the first few hours after sunrise.
Through the day today, an upper level short wave ridge will slide
east over the region. As a result, expect dry conditions through
the day time hours. Light southeasterly low level flow could
temper high today, as well as a persistent marine layer along the
Coastal Plains through the morning hours. Still, with the
increasing 1000-500mb thickness values (thanks to the short wave
ridge), should see max temps a few degrees higher than yesterday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Warm front makes slow progress north through the region
overnight. In the mid and upper levels, the short wave ridge moves
off shore as the next short wave trough begins to approach the
region (but should remain west of the region through the overnight
hours.
In the wake of the warm front, moisture and warm air advection,
could lead to a few showers moving into our region, though the
best lift looks to stay west of our region through this time. &&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will move across the area from west to east on
Friday. There will be some instability across the area, and PW
values increase across the area to around 1.5 inches. Therefore
there will be the chance for thunderstorms to accompany the
rainfall that is likely. Some showers and thunderstorms could
produce a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. Winds behind the
front will likely become gusty around 15 to 20 mph. Drier weather
is expected overnight Friday behind the cold front.
On Saturday, another cold front will move across the area. There
will remain some instability across the area, although PW values
are forecast to be less. However, the dynamics with Saturday`s
front may be stronger with a stronger jet aloft. So while PW
values may be less, there could still be a period of moderate to
heavy rainfall. Gusty winds are expected behind the frontal
passage with gusts of 25 to 30 mph expected. Dry weather will
return overnight Saturday night, along with cooler temperatures.
An area of low pressure will strengthen to our north, while high
pressure begins to build to our west. This will keep a steady
breeze across the area overnight.
Low pressure will remain to our north on Sunday, with another
frontal boundary or surface trough expected to cross the area
later in the day. While PW values drop below 0.5 inches, which
would normally would indicate a precipitation free forecast, there
remains steep low level lapse rates, along with some higher RH
values in the low-mid levels. As a short wave/vorticity impulse
slides across the area, there could be some light sprinkles make
their way into our area during the day within the northwest flow.
Winds during the day could again gust 25 to 30 mph.
Yet another frontal boundary/surface trough is expected on
Monday, however, with limited lapse rates and moisture, no
precipitation is expected. However, an increase in clouds cover
and gusty afternoon winds of 25 to 30 mph are once again expected.
Dry weather will continue into Monday night as high pressure
builds briefly builds across the area.
From Tuesday through Wednesday, there are some timing differences
with the next weather system. An area of low pressure is forecast
to eventually lift through the Ohio River Valley and into New
England, while lifting a warm front across the area, then pushing
a cold front across the area. The GFS is faster than the ECMWF,
bring the warm front through Tuesday night/Wednesday and the cold
front Wednesday night/Thursday. The ECMWF is about 12-24 hours
slower. For now, we will continue with a chance of showers Tuesday
through Wednesday. The best probabilities will be focused around
individual short wave/vorticity impulses. There could be some
instability ahead of the cold front, so we`ve included thunder in
the Wednesday forecast for now.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Low clouds and fog are expected to affect the TAF sites
intermittently through 12Z, before slowly dissipating through the
morning hours. Most locations should return to VFR by 15Z. Once VFR
conditions return, expect them to continue through at least 06Z.
After 06z, low clouds and possibly light fog could move into the
region from the south as a warm front lifts through the region. In
addition, closer to 12Z, a few showers may move into the region from
the west. Either one of these factors could lead to MVFR, and
localized IFR conditions developing before 12Z.
OUTLOOK...
Friday...Showers and thunderstorms possible with a cold frontal
passage. MVFR or IFR CIGS and VSBYS likely. Gusty west-northwest
winds behind the front of 15-20 knots.
Friday night...VFR expected.
Saturday...Another cold frontal passage with additional showers and
thunderstorms which could lower CIGS and VSBYS to MVFR or IFR again.
Gusty southwest winds 20-25 knots early, becoming west-northwest
behind the cold front.
Saturday...VFR expected.
Sunday...Generally VFR. Scattered showers possible during the day.
Gusty west-northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.
Sunday night...VFR expected.
Monday...VFR with gusty west to northwest winds 25-30 knots possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below small craft advisory conditions.
Seas are expected to stay around 2 feet or less. Winds should remain
near or below 15 kt today and tonight, though direction will shift
from easterly or southeasterly today and this evening to southerly
overnight as a warm front lifts through the region.
OUTLOOK...
Friday-Saturday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Cold
frontal passages Friday and Saturday, which could cause winds to
gust around 20 knots at times.
Saturday night-Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely
through the period with cold frontal passages Sunday and Monday.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...Johnson
Short Term...Johnson
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Johnson/Robertson
Marine...Johnson/Robertson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
934 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over Canada will shift southeast across New England
tonight and offshore on Thursday. A warm front will approach from
the south Thursday night, then a cold front will cross the area west
to east on Friday. A second cold front will move through on
Saturday, followed by high pressure Sunday and Monday. Temperatures
will moderate Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure moves
offshore. A frontal boundary by midweek is then forecast to approach
from the south.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
An upper air analysis showed an elongated closed mid level low from
Lake Erie to Delaware. There is a decent short wave at 500 mb with
this feature as well with one centered near Delaware. The radar and
earlier visible satellite imagery showed an MCV was tied to the mid
level feature across Maryland to Delaware (this stemmed from
yesterday`s convection in Kentucky). This MCV is now spinning down
as radar trends are showing the showers shrinking in areal coverage
and also weakening considerably from a few hours ago. The upper air
analysis also showed much less 700-500 mb lift with this feature
now. As a result, the showers are expected to continue to weaken as
the feature slowly shifts eastward or dissipates. Some guidance such
as the HRRR and RAP want to develop some more showers though
overnight mainly south of Philadelphia. This may be associated with
the lingering 500 mb feature overhead. We are not all that sure how
much shower activity redevelops as the features look weak, therefore
we just left some slight chc pops overnight.
Otherwise, much more in the way of cloudiness across the southern
areas where some deeper moisture remains. Some drier air though
trying to undercut this from the north has eroded the lower clouds
some farther south. The flow is light therefore lower clouds should
fill back in some for the southern to central areas, with less cloud
cover still expected farther to the north. Some fog should develop
especially across the southern zones where rain has occurred however
the overall extent across the area will depend on the cloud cover.
The hourly grids were adjusted with the latest observations, then
the lamp/lav guidance was blended in. No major changes were made to
the low temperatures at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
This forecast was a 50 50 blend of the 12z/11 GFS/NAM mos. The
12z/11 ECMWF suggests that the temps might be 2F warmer than now
forecast. Some uncertainty regarding cloud cover is the reasoning
for not warming temperatures any further than now posted. Light
wind... trending easterly. Any pops are low and at this time kept a
dry forecast. The KI is lower and very little sign of any
instability burst nor do I see any significant lift factor.
Any fog and low clouds may be slow to lift on the Delmarva.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The first part of the extended period, i.e., Thursday night through
Sunday, features trofing aloft with several shortwaves and
associated frontal systems moving through the mid-Atlantic region.
These fronts will bring in cooler air and a chance for showers
through much of the weekend. On Monday the upper trof starts to
move away and the flow aloft becomes more zonal with possibly some
weak ridging. From early through mid-week temperatures will
moderate and the chance for showers will return by mid-week.
For Thursday night, the frontal boundary now to our south will be
approaching or moving through part of the forecast area as a warm
front. The forecast has increasing chance PoPs during the night and
also areas of fog as the front approaches.
On Friday the first cold front will push through from west to east
during mid day to mid-afternoon, preceded by showers. There is some
marginal instability forecast so a chance for isold/sctd t-storms
was also included. Precip should be over by evening along the coast
and by mid-afternoon over east PA.
The air mass behind the first front is not particularly cold so max
temps on Saturday should be only slightly cooler than Friday.
However a second cold front is forecast to cross the area on
Saturday with an associated shortwave trof aloft and some forcing
for UVV. This will bring more showers during the day with perhaps
an isolated t-storm also.
Sunday will be cool and breezy behind the second front with a closed
low aloft and strong cyclonic flow. This usually brings a good
amount of diurnal cu during the day especially north of PHL.
Going into next week, the upper low moves away and some ridging
aloft begins. High pressure moves overhead on Monday and then off
the coast on Tuesday. This will lead to moderating temperatures, but
also increasing moisture with SW return flow around the high.
Monday and Tuesday look dry but a chance of showers and
thunderstorms was included for Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
Tonight...Weakening showers end later this evening from near KILG to
near KACY southward, then perhaps a few more showers develop
overnight. VFR TO MVFR ceilings, with the greatest chance for
ceilings to remain VFR is at KABE and KTTN. There appears to be some
drier air arriving from the north this evening as the lower clouds
erode some, therefore the extent of MVFR ceilings through the night
is of lower confidence.
Some fog should develop especially later tonight at KMIV, KACY, KILG
and KRDG, however the extent is of lower confidence as it may depend
on the cloud cover. Light southwesterly winds, becoming light and
variable overall.
Thursday...Some local fog early, then any MVFR ceilings should
improve to VFR. Light and variable winds, becoming east then
southeast 4-8 knots in the afternoon.
OUTLOOK...
Thursday Night...MVFR/IFR conditions developing with low clouds,
fog and drizzle possible.
Friday...Showers and thunderstorms possible with temporary
MVFR/IFR conditions.
Friday Night...VFR conditions expected.
Saturday...Additional showers and thunderstorms possible with
temporary MVFR/IFR conditions. SW winds gusting 20-25 kt early,
becoming WNW later in the afternoon.
Sunday and Monday...Mostly VFR. Gusty NW winds 15-25 kt possible.
&&
.MARINE...
No headlines through Thursday. Light wind...generally 5 to 10 kt. Seas
at or below 3 feet (A persistent se 2 foot 9 second swell with
very little wind wave). Water temperatures are near normal...the
pool of anomalously warm water from the winter having shifted seaward
(eastward).
As a heads up: the rip current information will appear as a subcategory
within the marine section from this time forward (unless there is
a future change).
Rip Currents: Our Surf Zone Forecast (SRF) will begin May 20th,
530 am with twice a day forecasts through September (~530 AM
Day1, ~9 PM for the next day). Our forecasts will be updated at
any time we receive information that the forecast is significantly
in error, including the rip current formation risk (low, moderate,
high), which will be checked against the 1015 AM beach patrol
reports from June 13-Labor Day. This surf zone forecast page will
be news headlined on our home page www.weather.gov/phi for easy
access.
Also beginning May 20, on our homepage, we will host an Experimental
National Beach Forecast page which will have umbrellas locating
most of the beaches, whereby you can click and obtain beach specific
information. We think you`ll like it, though it may need some
adjusting of our crowded beach locations. There will be social
media announcements, both facebook and twitter. Additionally we
will post a nice 90 second science piece on rip current recognition.
OUTLOOK...
Thursday night through Saturday...Winds and seas expected to
remain below small craft advisory levels.
Saturday night and Sunday...NW winds may gust to 25 kt or higher.
Monday...Winds and seas below SCA levels.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...AMC/Gorse
Near Term...Gorse
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...AMC
Aviation...AMC/Gorse
Marine...AMC/Drag
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
333 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2016
Surface high pressure currently migrating east southeastward across
southern KS and eventually working into the southern plains
overnight. On the western periphery of this high return flow will
develop. Despite the flow being cut off from the gulf there is still
some moisture in western TX/eastern NM evident from Midland`s 12z
sounding. A northern shortwave will push a front into the area
tomorrow afternoon and evening. Southwest flow ahead of this front
should allow that moisture to reach eastern KS. A majority of the
models are forecasting dew points around 60, which seems a little
high, although there is some uncertainty regarding these numbers.
The most likely scenario is dew points in the upper 50s. This
moisture and daytime heating should allow the cap to break along the
front. The only exception to this will be central KS, therefore
coverage may be more isolated there. Further east the cap appears
weaker and forcing stronger to allow for more scattered storms. If
the dew points are lower than the going forecast then the cape will
be less and coverage will be more isolated. As of now the mlcape
could reach 1500-2000 j/kg depending on the dew points, and the deep
layer shear will be around 40 kts. This combination could favor some
strong storms and or supercell development. Several of the high res
models highlight updraft helicity in far eastern KS associated with
these possible storms. The area of development should be mid
afternoon somewhere near a line from Seneca to Abilene, and once
formed will move southeastward with the front. The severe potential
will be slightly further to the southeast of this line. Given the
lower moisture quality the storms will be somewhat high based. This
will favor a damaging wind threat, and the cape/shear combo could
favor large hail as well. The front and storms should clear the area
around 10pm to 12am.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2016
Friday Night through Sunday...
The cold front will push all the way through the forecast area by
midnight Friday with persistent cold advection and a low level 10
mph breeze through the night. Temperatures will be cool but the well-
mixed airmass should keep lows in the lower 40s and not much cooler.
A weak secondary short wave aloft will cross the area early Saturday
and will work with the temperature gradient aloft to produce weak
lift and associated saturation beneath a plume of steep lapse rates.
All of this will occur above 700 mb though, and with plenty of dry
air beneath this feature, believe it will be difficult to get much
in the way of rain. Have a slight chance of showers for this period
although it may be more in the form of sprinkles. Saturday will be
plenty cool with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 and a continued
north breeze along with partly to mostly cloudy skies. On Saturday
night, the surface high builds directly over the forecast area with
winds becoming nearly calm. Skies should be clear in the evening
although do expect late moisture return from the SW to begin to
bring clouds into the area closer to sunrise. All of these
conditions should allow temperatures to approach 40 and possibly
even upper 30s in low-lying areas on Sunday morning with the primary
question at the moment being timing of cloud cover. These clouds are
in response to a short wave moving through the zonal flow and
bringing moisture up over the surface cold/dry dome. Lift may be
sufficient during the day on Sunday to produce scattered showers,
although the chances will be better with southwestward extent as the
low level airmass will be quite dry and there is little to no
instability present.
Sunday Night through Thursday...
A broad, low-amplitude trough will be located over the western US at
the beginning of the period. At the same time a 500mb jet max will
be located over the Great Lakes region. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night as weak lead waves and
large scale ascent associated with the right entrance region of the
jet remain over the area. Model agreement increasing in regards to
evolution of Monday afternoon/evening. Current runs suggest moisture
return will be limited Monday afternoon/evening with dewpoints
forecast to be in 40s. With that being said, have likely PoPs Monday
night/Tuesday morning as large scale ascent and multiple shortwaves
overspread the central plains. Model agreement then diverges greatly
for the remainder of the period. GFS maintains upper level trough
and pushes it across the area by Thursday. This solution creates on
and off shower and thunderstorm chances through Thursday. While the
ECMWF weakens the trough and replaces it with zonal flow and dry
conditions across area. However, have continued at least slight
chance PoPs through the end of the period. Temperatures will remain
cool with highs in the 60s to near 70 and lows in the mid-40s to low-
50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2016
VFR conditions expected through the period.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch/Baerg
AVIATION...Sanders
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
232 PM MDT THU MAY 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 135 PM MDT Thu May 12 2016
19Z Water vapor imagery indicated weak short wave ridging in place
across the area...although RAP analysis of dynamic tropopause
indicates a small scale trough entering into eastern Colorado.
While I do not think there will be a strong response to trough in
the afternoon, have noticed an area of enhanced cumulus clouds
along small convergence zone which may be a reflection of
approaching trough. HRRR beginning to latch on to this feature and
initiate convection after 21z, but with sparse coverage of QPF
even generous neighborhood methodologies keep pops at or below
10%. Would not expect severe convection in this case, but will
need to be monitored.
Another very conditional threat for thunderstorms exists around
12z where area of persistent warm air advection may provide
enough ascent to lift a parcel or two to saturation. Should this
occur, 500 to 1000 j/kg available that may provide an elevated
threat. Based on current data only a small minority of available
data suggest this will occur and with 70 to 100 mb condensation
pressure deficits in place have my doubts that forcing will be
sufficient for storm initiation.
On Friday...cold front will slide south over the area bringing
gusty northerly winds and cooler temperatures. Expect temps to
near 80 across southern zones while points in the north may
struggle to reach 70. Initial frontal passage should be dry with
little moisture available to work with.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM MDT Thu May 12 2016
Friday night-Saturday: The cold front should be south of our cwa
by Friday evening with CAA through Saturday. Models are still
showing positive 850-700mb frontogenesis late Friday night, and as
was the case the last few days moisture will be a limiting factor
on coverage. I kept slight chance PoPs (showers) limited to our
northeast, though NAM/SREF are showing the possibility for a
secondary area of light precip in our far west/southwest (possibly
drizzle near frontal zone). I was less confidence in including
drizzle or light showers across the rest of our CWA due to the
frontal position and current consensus. Any activity should be out
of the area by Saturday morning with a dry period during the day
Saturday. The combination of lingering cloud cover and a much
colder air mass will lead to highs 10-20F cooler (50s to near
60F).
Saturday night-Thursday: Models continue to support an active/wet
pattern through the extended period. As has been the case smaller
scale details are still somewhat uncertain, though there is enough
consistency/consensus to support higher PoPs Sunday night through
Monday night (likely). A recent trend has been for the GFS and GEFS
to move towards the ECMWF on Monday regarding frontal position
(further south from our CWA). This position significantly lowers
potential for severe thunderstorms, though it still is close
enough that there could still be a limited threat in our south
Monday afternoon/evening. By Tuesday night there is a lot more
spread between models Tuesday through Thursday as a result of a
progressive NW pattern remain in place despite the building ridge
in the west. I kept slight chance/chance pops in place with chance
PoPs on periods of better (incidental) overlap.
Temperatures through most of the extended should remain below
normal, with a recovery in highs Wed/Thu in response to rising
heights. Consensus supports 50s/Low 60s Sunday through Tuesday,
then mid/upper 60s Wednesday, and 70s on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Thu May 12 2016
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours with somewhat
variable winds expected through the overnight hours...followed by
period of strong northerly winds in the late morning hours as cold
front sweeps through the area. Will see scattered cumulus field
through 00z...with heights btwn 4000 and 5000 feet and gradually
rising through the day.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JRM