Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/11/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS EUREKA CA

317 AM PDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER NW CA WILL BRING A WARMING TREND
INLAND AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AT THE COAST THROUGH MID
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW
FRIDAY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO NW CA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

.DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXISTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PAC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH
MID WEEK WHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERS AROUND 150W AND 40N.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OFFSHORE NW CA SHOULD SEE OFFSHORE FLOW AND
DECREASING MARINE STRATUS EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN SUNSHINE COASTAL MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO RISE
A BIT GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ON WED HOWEVER
SOME SEMBLENCE OF DAYTIME NW WINDS SHOULD KEEP THEM FROM FROM GETTING
TOO MUCH HIGHER. MEANWHILE INLAND AREAS SHOULD WARM TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
COAST THURSDAY...THEN GET PULLED NORTH EASTWARD INTO THE MAIN JET
STREAM FRIDAY. COASTAL STRATUS SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN WARM
THURSDAY...THEN SEE COOLING FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS
START TO DROP. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE COMING TOGETHER A BIT MORE FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ASHORE SATURDAY. THE GFS
PUSHES IT INLAND OVER WASHINGTON STATE. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF
DROPPED IT RIGHT ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA...BUT LATEST RUN FROM 12Z IS
MOVING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS. WILL MAINTAIN VERY LOW END CHANCE
POPS MAINLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
5-WAVE FROM THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. ST/JT

.AVIATION...STRATUS HAS BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS TO MUCH
OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING INCLUDING HUMBOLDT BAY
AND THE RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CLOUDS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SHOULD ERODE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE MOST OF THE
MENDOCINO COAST MAY WAKE UP TO BLUE SKIES. LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL
HELP CLEAR OUT THE COAST NORTH OF THE CAPE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
THE HUMBOLDT BAY AREA TO BE THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT TODAY. THIS COULD
BE BY THE LATE MORNING HOWEVER STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS COULD STICK INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD AND GENERATES OFFSHORE
FLOW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. KML

.MARINE...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND STEEP NORTHERLY SEAS THROUGH
MONDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS...WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TODAY. TIGHT NORTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST
TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. IN ADDITION, A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE COMBINED SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN THE TIGHT
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH MONDAY. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER WATERS. BY TUESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4 TO 5 FT STARTING
ON WEDNESDAY. THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH START OF THE WEEKEND. UTILIZE HRRR IN THE NEAR TERM THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION TO USING A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.
/RCL

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ475.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

726 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 724 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING
AND EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA. GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY...STORMS WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER THAN THE STORMS THAT WENT THROUGH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME PERIOD. /HODANISH

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

AN UPR TROF WL BE AFFECTING THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED. ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT WL DROP SOUTH INTO SERN CO
THIS EVENING...BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MSTR. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT AND UNTIL THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MSTR OVR THE SERN
PLAINS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE SOME WIDESPREAD STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER VSBYS AND MAYBE EVEN
SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE. AFTER ABOUT 09Z BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
PCPN ENDING ACRS THE FORECAST AREA...OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME DRIZZLE.

THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE MORNING HOURS
ON WED...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD PCPN COULD FORM IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS ALONG THE ERN MTNS. IN THE AFTERNOON...UPSLOPE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE PCPN ALONG THE ERN MTNS...THE PALMER DVD AND
PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SRN BORDER. THE NAM SHOWS LITTLE
PCPN OVR THE FAR ERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR ALL THE SERN PLAINS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE ERN MTNS COULD
SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND CONTDVD ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY ISOLD PCPN CHANCES. TEMPS ON WED WL BE
COOLER AND GENERALLY A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN OVER
COLORADO...SURFACE WINDS BACK TO WESTERLY. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN WITH WARM...MOSTLY DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S THURSDAY...WARMING
INTO THE MID 70S/LOWER 80S FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AS THIS CLOSED LOW MOVES SLOWLY
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN UT/NORTHERN CO AS AN OPEN WAVE. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND MOVES THROUGH UT/CO
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS
AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS OF COLORADO...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EACH
AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STARK

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS TONIGHT THROUGH WED... ALTHOUGH
SOME SHOWERS OR TSTMS THIS EVENING COULD BRIEFLY BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS. SOME GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AT KALS. KCOS AND KPUB ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN THE VCNTY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU KCOS AND KPUB THIS EVENING...BRINGING NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WL LIKELY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS THAT MAY BRING MVFR OR IFR CIGS TO KCOS AND KPUB.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...28

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

253 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016

...BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOMORROW...

CURRENTLY...PLEASANT SPRING DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE PLAINS. WINDS HAVE SWUNG AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL PUSH AND ARE GUSTING IN THE 20-30KT RANGE AT TIMES. CU FIELD
LOOKS PRETTY INACTIVE AS OF 2PM LOCAL TIME. A COUPLE STORMS...WITH
SOME SMALL HAIL...HAVE FORMED OVER THE EXTREME SE PLAINS...BUT
CURRENT ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NOT MUCH
DEVELOPMENT SEEN TO THE WEST. CURRENT SCT POPS OVER THE MTS MAY BE A
BIT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WITH STAY THE COURSE FOR NOW...WITH A COUPLE
HOURS OF HEATING LEFT THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW OVER THE MTS HAS LARGELY
ENDED PER WEB CAMS...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE
CONTDVD.

MAIN WX CONCERN WILL BE A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
MOVING INTO THE YELLOWSTONE AREA OF NW WY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO WRN CO LATE TONIGHT. LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS BRING A LINE
OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTS AND
ON TO THE PIKE PEAK REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. BASED ON
OTHER MODELS...EXTENT OF QPF MAY BE OVERDONE IN THE HRRR BUT THERE
ARE SOME SIGNS IN THE NAM THAT SHOW POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THROUGH
EARLY TUE MORNING. GFS IS DRY AND ARW/NMM ARE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN
THE HRRR. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN SCT POPS
FOR THE UPPER ARKANSAS AREA...AND ISOLD FOR THE PIKES PEAK AREA
THROUGH TUE MORNING. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST THESE AREAS IF
THE TRENDS FOR THIS DISTURBANCE CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.

TOMORROW...A BREAK IS EXPECTED AFTER THE MORNING CONVECTION BEFORE A
SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP DEVELOPS TUE AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE AND INCREASED UPSLOPE OVER THE SRN FRONT RANGE.
TEMPS ALOFT TOMORROW RISE A FEW DEGREES...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY PRECIP DEVELOPS AND HOW EXTENSIVE IT IS...THIS MAY LIMIT THE
HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE NRN
AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...OVER THE MTS AND N OF HGWY 50. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016

TUE NIGHT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
WITH REGARDS TO PCPN OVR THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM SHOW SPOTTY
ISOLD TO SCT PCPN ACRS THE AREA IN THE EVENING HOURS...AND THEN FOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT HAS LITTLE OR NO PCPN . THE GFS SHOWS A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD PCPN IN THE EVENING...AND HAS A BLOB OF PERSISTENT PCPN
OVER PIKES PEAK...TELLER...FREMONT...WESTERN PUEBLO AND EL PASO
COUNTIES. IT APPEARS THAT THE DIFFERENCE IF THAT THE GFS HAS LOW TO
MID LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW THAT IS GENERATING THE PCPN...WHEREAS THE NAM
HAS NORTHERLY SFC WINDS AND SWRLY MID LEVEL WINDS. FOR NOW...WL KEEP
SCT PCPN CHANCES OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE
NIGHT.

ON WED AN UPR TROF AND A COUPLE DISTURBANCE MOVE ACRS THE STATE AND
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK FAIRLY GOOD FROM THE I-
25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW TO MID
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM GENERALLY KEEPS THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS DRY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE GFS SPREADS PCPN
ACRS THE PLAINS...BUT IN THE EVENING HOURS THE NAM ALSO SPREADS PCPN
ACRS THE PLAINS WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE AREA...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUM. AS THAT
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TOWARD THU MORNING...THE PCPN WL
GENERALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT SOME PCPN MAY LINGER INTO THU
MORNING OVR THE FAR SERN AREAS. WED WL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPS ACRS THE AREA BEING BELOW AVERAGE.

THU AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE WRN STATES AND THE FORECAST AREA
LOOKS DRY ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS. ON FRI A SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING
BY OVR NE AND KS...WL SEND A FRONT INTO SERN CO. FRI GENERALLY
LOOKS DRY BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS OVR THE MTN
AREAS. THE UPR RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY SAT NIGHT AS A NEW SYSTEM MOVES
FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...WITH MORE MSTR MOVING
ACRS THE AREA FOR SUN AND MON BRINGING A RETURN TO UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR PCPN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016

SOME LOCALIZED GUSTY N WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO REAL AVN CONCERNS CURRENTLY. STORMS HAVE
MOVED OFF INTO THE PANHANDLES...AND NOTHING STRONG EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TS AFFECTING THE KCOS AND/OR KALS SITES LATER
TONIGHT...FROM AROUND 06-09Z...BUT WILL NOT MENTION EXPLICITLY IN
TAFS FOR NOW. A BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP FOR THE TAF SITES TUE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS. ROSE

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

235 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016

COLORADO IS IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY WITH MAIN ELONGATED UPPER
TROF OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO SOUTH DAKOTA.
THERE IS WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES
INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THERE IS HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST
COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH FAVORED OROGRAPHIC FLOW
AND ALSO OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CYS RIDGE. COVERAGE WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED FURTHER EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY WITH A JET STREAK NOSING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WEAK UPWARD ASCENT ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COLORADO. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK
CONVERGENCE WITH FOCUS AREA ALONG PALMER DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FOCUSES HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA AND LESSER
AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016

QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE LIFT ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK SUBSIDENCE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE...UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE AROUND DURING THE DAY TO CONTINUE LOW POPS IN MOST AREAS.
UPPER RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR AND MOISTURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES TO BRING A RENEWED...ALBEIT NOT
TERRIBLY HIGH...THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016

SURFACE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED LIGHT NORTHEAST OVER TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR CYS RIDGE AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. KDEN WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE EDGE OF THE SHOWERS BUT LATEST HRRR HAS DENVER ON EDGE OF THE
SHOWERS AFTER 22Z. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN A
BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH APPROACHING UPPER
DISTURBANCE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE
AIRPORTS TUESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...ENTREKIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1141 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

...SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TOMORROW...

CURRENTLY...WIDELY SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER
THE AREA...AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
H5 CENTER IS OVER ERN WY...BUT SRN EXTENT OF THE LOW EXTENDS SWRD
INTO NM...AND A COUPLE DISTURBANCES IN THIS BROADER CIRCULATION WILL
MOVE THROUGH SE CO THROUGH MONDAY. STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN PRETTY
WEAK...AND DEW POINTS NR THE KS BORDER HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND THE
4O DEGREE MARK...SO SVR THREAT ATTM LOOKS LIMITED. WILL STILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO OVER THE SERN PLAINS...BUT THE
PROBABILITY LOOKS PRETTY LOW.

THIS FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVE. THE HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE BEEN A
BIT TOO SPARSE WITH COVERAGE OVERALL...SO HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER
RES NAM RUNS FOR POP COVERAGE IN THE SHORT TERM. STILL DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH QPF OVERALL. NEXT WAVE OF ACTIVITY WILL COME
LATER TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE IMPACT FROM
THIS WAVE SHOULD BE MAINLY WEST OF I-25...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS. MTS COULD SEE ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH MON
MORNING...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN
HIGH...GENERALLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. KCPW AND THE SAN JUANS LOOK TO
BENEFIT THE MOST FROM SNOWFALL THROUGH TOMORROW.

TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE
PLAINS...WHILE THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS MAY STAY IN THE 30S-40S ONCE
AGAIN DUE TO WIDESPREAD MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PRECIP. STORM
COVERAGE E OF THE MTS NOT LOOKING TERRIBLY GREAT TOMORROW...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR TS MON AFTERNOON...SO WILL
LEAVE VERY LOW POPS...AROUND 10 PERCENT...OVER THE ERN PLAINS FOR
NOW. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

LATE MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE IT LOOK GENERALLY DRY ACRS THE
FORECAST AREA...AHEAD OF A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE
WEATHER LATER TUE. TUE AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WL BE TRACKING
FROM SERN MT INTO NWRN SD. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPR TROF THAT WL
MOVE INTO CO...WL BRING PCPN TO THE CONTDVD BY LATE TUE
MORNING...THEN SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN MTNS AS WELL TUE
AFTERNOON. TOWARD TUE EVENING SOME ISOLD TO SCT PCPN SHOULD ALSO
SPREAD EAST OVER THE SERN CO PLAINS. MOST LOCATIONS ON TUE SHOULD
SEE TEMPS THAT ARE AROUND AVERAGE.

TUE NIGHT A FRONT WL DROP S THRU THE SERN PLAINS AS THE UPR TROF
MOVES ACRS CO. IT MAY BE UNSETTLED ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO
LINGER ACRS THE CENTRAL AND ERN MTNS AND THE SERN PLAINS...HOWEVER
BY WED MORNING MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS DRY. WED AFTERNOON A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA AND COULD HELP TRIGGER
SOME ISOLD PCPN ACRS THE MTNS AND ERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ON WED WL
BE COOLER AND WL BE BELOW AVERAGE.

THU LOOKS LIKE A DRIER DAY ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ISOLD PCPN MAINLY OVR THE MTNS AREA. TEMPS WL BE WARMER ON
THU AND SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR
THE AREA FOR FRI...WITH TEMPS WARMING A LITTLE MORE. FOR SAT AND
SUN THE UPR RIDGE GETS FLATTENED OVR THE AREA WITH SOME MSTR IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING OVR THE AREA ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MSTR OVR EASTERN AREAS AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS. WL PROBABLY SEE ISOLD TO SCT PCPN ACRS THE MTN AND PLAINS.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES...CAPABLE OF CREATING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

105 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL PUSH THIS
FRONT SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN, A COLD FRONT,
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE MID-MORNING UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES THIS MORNING DUE TO CURRENT READINGS. ALSO ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES OVER DELMARVA...ALTHO STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY
WILL BE COOLER THAN AREAS FARTHER NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD
OVERSPREAD MOST OF DELMARVA BY MID DAY. THE RAP AND HRRR STILL
SHOW THE PRECIP TENDING TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
LOWERED POPS A LITTLE BUT STILL KEEPING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR A
WHILE THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISSCUSSION BELOW...
A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO VIRGINIA TODAY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL SQUEEZED OUT ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA REGION. ANY QPF LOOKS TO BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH, IF
ANYTHING RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS HAVE TRENDED DRIER. AS A RESULT,
POPS AND QPF WERE TRIMMED BACK A TOUCH WITH THE 6:30 AM UPDATE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
DRIER AIR INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE END RESULT WILL BE
TOTALLY DIFFERENT DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. DELMARVA WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE MID 60`S. ON THE
OTHER HAND, REGIONS FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD SHOULD SEE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR QUICK RISES OF TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY BUST WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA. 925 MB MODELED TEMPERATURES
INDICATE THE NAM/ECMWF 2M TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE RESPECTIVE
MOS GUIDANCE SHOULD BE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO COOL WITH THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70`S.

SEVERAL FEATURES ON LOCAL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND
GUSTS TO REACH 20-25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. MIXING
WILL LIKELY LOWER RH VALUES FROM PHILADELPHIA AND POINTS TO THE
NORTH AS WELL, PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE WITH THE FEATURES IN OUR REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE. THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TOWARD SUNRISE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBILE TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY, THIS TIME ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAV/MET
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUE HAS TAKEN A BIT OF A TURN TWD THE MORE DREARY THIS CYCLE. A WM
FRONT, EXTENDING EWD FROM LOW PRES IN THE PLAINS, WILL BE OVER
THE AREA. PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE DURG THE AFTN HOURS. WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AN E TO NE FLOW, TEMPS ARE COOLER THAN
PREV FCSTS. WHILE NOT AS BAD AS A FEW DAYS LAST WEEK, TUE NOW
LOOKS TO NOT BE PLEASANT AT ALL.

HIGH PRES RE-EXERTS ITSELF IN ERN CANADA TUE NIGHT AND PUSHES THE
FRONT SWD AND DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EITHER TUE NIGHT OR WED THRU
THU. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT TIMING. THE GFS KEEPS
SOME LINGERING LIGHT QPF OVER SRN AREAS TUE EVE. THE ECMWF, KEEPS
ITS PRECIP FURTHER N EARLIER TUE EVE, THEN OVER THE S TUE NIGHT,
BUT IT IS A MORE ROBUST AREA. FOR NOW, WILL JUST HOLD SOME LOW
POPS.

LOW PRES THEN MOVES ACRS SRN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THU AND CROSS THE AREA
ON FRI. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFS HERE AS WELL. THE GFS HAS RAIN
IN THE WRN AREAS AS ERLY AS THU EVE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. THE ECMWF DOESN`T HAVE ANY RAIN BEFORE FIR MRNG
AND PSBLY EVEN FRI AFTN IN THE E. THE ECMWF IS OFTEN TOO SLOW WITH
CFP, SO HAVE SHADED IN THE GFS DIRECTION, BUT REGARDLESS, THERE
WILL BE SOME PRECIP ON FRI. THE FRONT MOVES THRU THE REGION AND
CLEARS THE COAST FRI EVE.

BOTH THE EC AND GFS THEN BRING SOME INSTABILITY SHWRS THRU ON SAT
BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN ON SUN.

AFTER A MUCH BELOW NRML TEMP DAY ON TUE, TEMPS WILL BE AOA NRML
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, THEY RETURN TO NR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NRML
BEHIND THE CDFNT OVER THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A HIGH BROKEN
DECK WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AROUND 20,000 FEET AND GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 7,000 FEET LATE
TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY FOR KILG AND KMIV.

OUTLOOK...
TUE THRU THU...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHRA ACROSS TUE/TUE NIGHT CUD BRING
LWR CIGS. LOW CONFIDENCE

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA PSBL WITH CFP. LOWER
VSBYS/CIGS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

.MARINE...

DECIDED TO CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF LITTLE EGG
INLET. THIS IS BASED ON OBSERVED WIND GUSTS ALONG THE NJ SHORE.
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE BEING REPORTED NORTH OF LITTLE EGG BUT ARE
MUCH LESS TO THE SOUTH. THE GUSTY WINDS ARE ORIGINATING OVER LAND
AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. BUOY 44065 ABOUT
15 NM OFFHORE HAS VERY LITTLE WIND AT ALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. BOTH THE MODELED
925 MB WINDS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TOP WINDS OF AROUND 25
KNOTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. SINCE WIND GUSTS ARE NOT TO
EXCEED 25 KNOTS, CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN NORMAL FOR AN ADVISORY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME CONSULTATION WITH STATE PARTNERS INDICATES FUELS MAY STILL
BE TOO MOIST FOR ANY INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY.

RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP TO AROUND 30% IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY IN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE OUT OF
WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. COORDINATION IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING WITH
STATE PARTNERS ON A POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THAT HINGES ON THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-
451.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...AMC/GAINES/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

953 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

FOR THE MID-MORNING UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES THIS MORNING DUE TO CURRENT READINGS. ALSO ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES OVER DELMARVA...ALTHO STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY
WILL BE COOLER THAN AREAS FARTHER NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD
OVERSPREAD MOST OF DELMARVA BY MID DAY. THE RAP AND HRRR STILL
SHOW THE PRECIP TENDING TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
LOWERED POPS A LITTLE BUT STILL KEEPING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR A
WHILE THIS AFTERNOON.

BOTH THE EC AND GFS THEN BRING SOME INSTABILITY SHWRS THRU ON SAT
BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN ON SUN.

AFTER A MUCH BELOW NRML TEMP DAY ON TUE, TEMPS WILL BE AOA NRML
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, THEY RETURN TO NR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NRML
BEHIND THE CDFNT OVER THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE THRU THU...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHRA ACROSS TUE/TUE NIGHT CUD BRING
LWR CIGS. LOW CONFIDENCE

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA PSBL WITH CFP. LOWER
VSBYS/CIGS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. BOTH THE MODELED 925 MB WINDS
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TOP WINDS OF AROUND 25 KNOTS ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. SINCE WIND GUSTS ARE NOT TO EXCEED 25 KNOTS,
CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN NORMAL FOR AN ADVISORY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...

SOME CONSULTATION WITH STATE PARTNERS INDICATES FUELS MAY STILL
BE TOO MOIST FOR ANY INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>453.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...AMC/GAINES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

609 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SOME PATCHY FROST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN LOCALIZED SPOTS IN
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND INTERIOR OCEAN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
SEVERAL MESONET STATIONS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 30`S WITH LIGHT
WINDS. ANY WIDELY PATCHY FROST SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.

A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO VIRGINIA TODAY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL SQUEEZED OUT ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA REGION. ANY QPF LOOKS TO BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH, IF
ANYTHING RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS HAVE TRENDED DRIER. AS A RESULT,
POPS AND QPF WERE TRIMMED BACK A TOUCH WITH THE 6:30 AM UPDATE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
DRIER AIR INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE END RESULT WILL BE
TOTALLY DIFFERENT DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. DELMARVA WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE MID 60`S. ON THE
OTHER HAND, REGIONS FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD SHOULD SEE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR QUICK RISES OF TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY BUST WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA. 925 MB MODELED TEMPERATURES
INDICATE THE NAM/ECMWF 2M TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE RESPECTIVE
MOS GUIDANCE SHOULD BE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO COOL WITH THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70`S. SEVERAL FEATURES ON LOCAL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 20-25 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. MIXING WILL LIKELY LOWER RH VALUES
FROM PHILADELPHIA AND POINTS TO THE NORTH AS WELL, PLEASE SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE.

BOTH THE EC AND GFS THEN BRING SOME INSTABILITY SHWRS THRU ON SAT
BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN ON SUN.

AFTER A MUCH BELOW NRML TEMP DAY ON TUE, TEMPS WILL BE AOA NRML
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, THEY RETURN TO NR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NRML
BEHIND THE CDFNT OVER THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE THRU THU...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHRA ACROSS TUE/TUE NIGHT CUD BRING
LWR CIGS. LOW CONFIDENCE

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA PSBL WITH CFP. LOWER
VSBYS/CIGS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP TO AROUND 30% IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY IN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WINDS WILL ALSO
BE OUT OF WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS FROM 20-25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. COORDINATION IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING
WITH STATE PARTNERS ON A POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THAT HINGES ON THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ450>453.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

851 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA UNDERNEATH A PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET. THE PLACEMENT OF
THE JET WILL KEEP PERIOD OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS/CS OVERSPREADING OUR
SKIES INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN STREAM HAS TAKEN ON A RATHER
ZONAL CONFIGURATION...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPULSES
APPROACHING...AND ALL SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY LOCKED
WELL TO OUR NORTH.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE
REGION...AND WILL REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
OVERALL...OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE WILL HOLD ONTO AT LEAST SOME OF THE MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVERHEAD FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE BEGINNING OF AN EROSION TO
THIS LAYER. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWER POP UP ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE
WITH THE SLIGHTLY LESS HOSTILE MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER...ANYTHING THAT
DOES FORM WILL BE REMOTE AND BRIEF. SHOWER COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
BE WELL BELOW 10%...AND HENCE HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AND NDFD GRIDS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE OVERNIGHT
SHIFT CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE NEW 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE AND
DETERMINE IF A LOW END POP MIGHT BE REQUIRED AFTER 19-20Z
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION (11/00Z THROUGH 12/00Z)...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 71 87 71 88 / 0 10 10 30
FMY 69 89 70 89 / 10 10 20 20
GIF 68 87 68 90 / 10 10 10 30
SRQ 68 83 69 85 / 0 0 10 10
BKV 64 87 63 89 / 0 10 10 30
SPG 72 86 73 87 / 0 10 10 20

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

138 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...

ALTHOUGH THE HRRR STILL TRIES TO BRING IN SOME LIGHT SHRA ACTIVITY
LATER TODAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN TOO LOW FOR
ANY MENTIONABLE PRECIP. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST AND
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE GRIDS AT THIS POINT.

DEESE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

.UPDATED DUE TO AVIATION FORECAST...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY BUT WITH THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING EAST...INCREASED CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA NOW
WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH
ACROSS MS/AL AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP TO MAINLY NORTH
GA TUESDAY. OR NOW ONLY LOOKING AT A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITIES ARE
FAIRLY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL KEEP A RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CWA...MAINLY NORTH GA...ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE IN
BRINGING A STRONG SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTH GA. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY ENDING
THE PRECIP FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY ACROSS THE
CWA. A ZONAL FLOW RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TO NORTH GA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN STORE FOR THIS CYCLE WITH A CONTINUED VFR
FORECAST. SHOULD SEE CONTINUED INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHRA MAINLY
OVER NW GEORGIA. CHANCES WERE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN ATL JUST
YET. SAME STORY FOR TUE AS MOST OF THE DEVELOPING SHRA REMAIN OVER
NW PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND NO MENTION IN ATL TAF. WINDS SHOULD
BRIEFLY SOME AROUND TO SSE THIS EVENING BEFORE GOING BACK TO THE
SW OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WINDSHIFT CHANCES AND TIMING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 84 61 83 63 / 0 5 10 10
ATLANTA 82 63 82 66 / 0 5 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 78 57 78 59 / 0 5 30 30
CARTERSVILLE 81 60 82 64 / 0 5 30 20
COLUMBUS 83 63 83 65 / 0 5 10 10
GAINESVILLE 81 62 81 64 / 0 5 20 20
MACON 85 62 85 63 / 0 0 5 10
ROME 80 59 82 64 / 0 10 30 20
PEACHTREE CITY 81 59 82 62 / 0 5 10 10
VIDALIA 88 65 85 66 / 0 5 5 5

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

1001 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.UPDATE...

DEESE

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

..UPDATED DUE TO AVIATION FORECAST...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016/

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FROM THE 06Z TAF SET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD BUT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE WEST STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
IN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY OUT OF THE W TO SW
AND MAINLY 10KT OR LESS. WILL SEE SOME GUST TO 15KT THIS
AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THIS TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO N GA TUESDAY
MORNING BUT THEY SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL KEEP
THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

913 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.UPDATE...
913 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

AREA OF SLOW MOVING OR NEARLY STATIONARY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN
IL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN LATE THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED WITH THESE LINGERING
SHOWERS...WHICH WERE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK
REMNANT MCV FEATURE LOCATED NORTH OF KVYS/PERU-LASALLE. EARLIER
SLOW-MOVING STORMS HAD PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER PORTIONS OF LASALLE AND GRUNDY COUNTIES...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF NEARLY 2 INCHES AND SOME REPORTS OF MINOR FLOODING.
WHILE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH...AN AERIAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM FOR
WESTERN/CENTRAL LASALLE COUNTY FOR RESIDUAL MINOR FLOODING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH OVER NORTHERN IL. MOIST AND RELATIVELY COOL ENVIRONMENT
NORTH OF A WEST-EAST STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE FOG DEVELOP
AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT. CURRENT WEB CAMS SHOW LIGHT FOG/LOW CEILINGS
DEVELOPING BACK INTO DOWNTOWN CHICAGO...AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND
INLAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL NEED FOR FOG HEADLINES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE.

HAVE UPDATED HOURLY POP/WX TRENDS BASED ON RECENT RADAR
TRENDS...AND ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS A BIT HIGHER IN OUR SOUTHERN TIER
OF CWA COUNTIES BASED ON FRONTAL POSITION WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE LOW-MID 60S. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
243 PM CDT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE WARM FRONT LIES ALONG OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF I-80 WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE
LOW 70S SOUTH OF IT. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO PULL NORTH
WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. FINALLY SEEING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATES CAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A BIT LESS CAPE. SHEAR VALUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE VERY
LOW...BUT THINKING A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
GENERAL ROTATION ALOFT. ONLY EXPECTING ONE TO PERHAPS A FEW STORMS
TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. SO
FAR THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED TAME WITH LIMITED VERTICAL GROWTH.

CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
QUICKLY BECOMES STABLE WITH A DECENT SURFACE INVERSION. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES BAGGY WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS COMBINED WITH RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS FROM THE FRONT AND
RECENT RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG OVERNIGHT. NOT CERTAIN THAT WE
WILL SEE DENSE FOG...BUT AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY. TEMPS DROP INTO
50S THIS EVENING AND THEN HOLD STEADY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY IS STILL LOOKING WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 SOUTH OF I-80.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 60S ALONG THE LAKE. CLOUD
COVER WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN HOW MUCH AREAS AWAY FROM THE
LAKE WILL WARM. IF ANY LOCATION GETS A BIT MORE SUNSHINE...COULD SEE
TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 80S. THE MAIN FORCING STAYS WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. A STOUT CAP WILL ALSO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.

JEE

.LONG TERM...
214 PM CDT

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY FRIDAY WHILE TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
ANTICIPATE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO BE DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING A STRONG CAP FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING OF THE LOW
PASSAGE AND THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE...THINK THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS GREATLY LIMITED AND WOULD ANTICIPATE ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE REGION TO BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE AS IT
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE...A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET OUT
AHEAD OF THE LOW TRACK WILL RESULT IN DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA AND AREAS NORTH...ALONG WITH BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT SWINGS AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SWITCH IN WINDS WILL HELP DRIVE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE LOW TO MID
70S THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
60S...AND ONLY MID/UPPER 50S FOR SATURDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
COULD CAUSE SOME LIGHT RAIN...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FOCUSED IN THE
MID LEVELS WITH DRY LOW LEVELS INDICATED IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE QPF. UPPER PATTERN IS
PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. EXPECT PRIMARILY DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH SOME LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES
COULD BRING A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO.

BMD

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NRN IL/IN HAS BECOME DISRUPTED BY
ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND IS RATHER ILL DEFINED.
HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR WITH COOL NELY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF NERN
IL/IN...THOUGH MDW CURRENTLY IS REPORTING SELY WINDS DUE TO
OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TERMINAL. CIGS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE TEMPORARILY IMPROVED ABOVE
IFR AT MANY LOCATIONS...BUT RFD REMAINS UNDER IFR CIGS AND SEVERAL
NON-TAF SITES LIKE PWK AND UGN HAVE BEEN SOCKED IN ALL AFTERNOON.
THE SITES THAT DID NOT IMPROVE ALSO WERE NOT INVOF THE THE
TSRA...WHICH REMAINED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE PCPN/TSRA IS SHRINKING IN
COVERAGE AND IS MORE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS
AND CLOSER TO THE SFC WARM FRONT. AS THE PCPN SETTLES
DOWN...EXPECT THAT CIGS WILL QUICKLY RETURN BACK TO IFR LEVELS
ARND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. WITH PERSISTENT COOL...NELY FLOW
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND LOW CIGS AND FOG NOTED
IN LAKEFRONT WEBCAMS...ANTICIPATE THAT THE CIG/VIS TREND WILL
LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIFR CIGS DURG THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR 200 FT CIGS WITH 1SM BR FOR
08-12Z...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS MAY NEED TO BE A
PREVAILING CONDITION WITH THE LIFR CIGS CONTINUING LATER THAN
12Z...PERHAPS LASTING UNTIL 14-16Z. WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SETTLE INTO ENELY-NELY WITH SPEEDS OF 7KT OR
LESS.

KREIN

.MARINE...
214 PM CDT

A WARM FRONT LIES SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN. WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS POOLING NEAR THE FRONT
HAVE RESULTED IN FOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...THUS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUES FOR THE REST
OF TODAY THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST
BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD RIDGE STRENGTHENS
AND REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 10
AM WEDNESDAY.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

644 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...
243 PM CDT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

JEE

.LONG TERM...
214 PM CDT

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

BMD

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

KREIN

.MARINE...
214 PM CDT

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...10 PM TUESDAY TO 10
AM WEDNESDAY.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 10
AM WEDNESDAY.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

1247 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

300 PM...CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN MO WILL CONTINUE
LIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT LIKELY ARRIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
CWA LATE THIS EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THERE HAS APPEARED TO BE A
SHARP CUT OFF TO THIS PRECIP THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE HOW FAR
NORTH THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND BY MORNING. DIDN/T MAKE MANY CHANGES
WITH LIKELY POPS EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY RFD/JOT/RZL. STILL APPEARS
THERE MAY BE A LULL FROM MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE WARM FRONT BEGINS LIFTING NORTH ACCOMPANIED BY
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE. BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND DURATION
OF ANY LULL AND FOR THAT REASON MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS UNTIL
LATER AFTERNOON WHEN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MONDAY EVENING WITH A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA FOR DAY2. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
NO CHANGE TO PWATS IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. MODEL QPF SHOWS THE
HEAVIEST AXIS FROM WEST/NORTHWEST IL BACK INTO PARTS OF IOWA.

TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY END UP SIMILAR TO MONDAY...DIFFICULT
TO SEE MUCH WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
SO PERHAPS A LULL MIDDAY BUT WITH SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON NOW THAT THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.

TEMPS MAY QUICKLY DROP THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLEAR SKIES...BUT
SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SPREAD NORTH. WITH THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...TEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S WITH MAV SUGGESTING LOW/MID 50S...THUS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HIGHS MONDAY. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S
TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS AT THE LAKE WITH EASTERLY FLOW. CMS

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

300 PM...ANY ACTIVITY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS TO END
WITH POSSIBLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. IF
WEDNESDAY PANS OUT DRY WITH SOME PARTIAL SUN...IT WILL LIKELY BE
QUITE WARM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT/LOW. GUIDANCE
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE LAKE WITH EITHER
A LAKE BREEZE OR AN EASTERLY GRADIENT DEVELOPING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THEN POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DRY PERIOD DOES NOW APPEAR TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THURSDAY POSSIBLY BECOMING BREEZY/WINDY.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ECMWF/GFS HAVE
BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS AND NOW SHOWING -2C TO -4C
AT 850MB BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH VERY SLOWLY MODERATES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE IMPORTANT BUT LOWS
IN AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 30S SEEM POSSIBLE AND THIS COULD RESULT
IN SOME FROST. CMS

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

MAIN CONCERNS FOR AVIATION WILL BE ON THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP AND
GUSTY EAST WINDS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK
PRESENTLY...HOWEVER CLOSER TO DAYBREAK THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 100-120 DEG WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-12KT AND GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-24KT BY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME CLOUDS
WILL STEADILY THICKEN AND LOWER...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN VFR CONDS
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIP TIMING CONTINUES TO SLOW
AS THE EAST WINDS WILL STEADILY USHER IN DRY AIR...SO HAVE PUSHED
BACK THE TIMING OF PRECIP UNTIL MIDDAY BUT EXPECT THE BETTER
COVERAGE FOR PRECIP TO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.

BETWEEN 21-23Z CIGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER TOWARDS IFR CONDS AS THE
BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES...INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP. IN
ADDITION SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
PRECIP INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE AT THIS TIME HELD OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER...BUT THAT MAY INDEED NEED TO BE ADDED. CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER TOWARDS IFR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH LIKELY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

BEACHLER

.MARINE...
242 PM CDT

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES
EASTWARD. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHILE A SERIES OF LOWS SLOWLY DRIFT EAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE WEEK. THESE
LOWS MAY MERGE MIDWEEK BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...APPROACHING 25/30 KT MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY LATE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM
NORTHERN CANADA.

KMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1159 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 838 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016

Showers associated with a frontal boundary across southern
Illinois continue to spread northeastward across central IL this
evening. Although the surface boundary is progged to move very
little overnight...a shortwave aloft will produce enough lift and
warm advection aloft for these showers to continue to spread
northeastward...reaching northwards of I-74 by midnight. Initially
there will be little lightning with these showers, but
observations show lightning across Missouri from KC-Quincy and
some of this activity could spread across central IL late in the
evening and overnight. Lows expected in the mid 50s despite
following a cooler day as thickening cloud cover won`t allow much
cooling to take place. Southeast winds around 10 mph will continue
through the night through central IL which will remain north of
the warm front. South of I-70, winds may switch to southerly if
the front moves that far by morning. Only minor updates needed
this evening.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016

19z/2pm surface analysis shows a stationary frontal boundary
extending from northeast Kansas to southern Kentucky. As a short
wave trough evident on latest water vapor imagery over
Oklahoma/Kansas lifts northward, it will give the front a push
northward tonight as well. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have
already developed along the front in association with the
approaching wave across eastern Kansas into central/western
Missouri...and this activity is expected to develop/spread
northeastward into central Illinois this evening. With a deeper
fetch of Gulf of Mexico moisture now apparent on water vapor imagery
and surface dewpoints across the Plains in the lower to middle 60s,
there will be adequate moisture available for precip development
tonight. The main difference between the models is how quickly the
rain arrives. The HRRR has been consistently faster than the other
models, with showers arriving as far north as the I-74 corridor as
early as 03-04z. Meanwhile, the 12z NAM had been a couple hours
slower, generally keeping the far northern CWA dry until around
midnight. The 18z run of the NAM has quickened the process and now
looks very similar to the HRRR. As a result, will be adjusting PoPs
to carry likely/categorical everywhere north of the I-70 corridor by
mid to late evening. The rain will lift northward through the night
and will likely be mainly along/north of I-74 by early Monday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016

The northward progression of a warm front will highlight the
day on Monday, and signal increasing temps and dewpoints for the
first half of the week, along with chances for strong storms.

Monday morning will see a band of ongoing convection lifting north
across central Illinois ahead of the front, with precip generally
north of I-72 by sunrise. The mid-morning may see a break in the
rainfall for a majority of our forecast area. Storm chances will
increase from SW to NE late Monday morning and afternoon as an upper
level wave progresses eastward along the warm front. Our entire area
is included in a Marginal Risk (5%) of severe storms Monday
afternoon/eve. Instability params are pointing toward areas west
of Springfield to Peoria having higher instability values than our
eastern counties. MUCAPES of 1000-1400 J/kg could develop in the
west by afternoon if some sunshine develops during the break in
the rain Monday morning. Bulk shear values are marginal, in the
20-35kt range with the lower values in W IL and higher near
Indiana. Will keep likely PoPs Monday afternoon and categorical
PoPs Mon night as a strong upper level wave progresses across IL
into Tuesday morning. Storm chances will diminish by mid-morning
on Tuesday, but increase again Tues afternoon as a 500mb shortwave
lifts across central IL. MUCAPES on Tues afternoon look to climb
into the 2000-3000 J/kg range, with bulk shear of 30-35kt. The SPC
Marginal risk is currently south of I-72, which may get changed to
a Slight risk before Tuesday arrives if current instability trends
continue. We kept likely PoPs Tues afternoon, with large hail and
damaging winds possible with the strongest storms. Low level
helicity values appear supportive of rotating updrafts, especially
in east-central and southeast IL.

A NAM is advertising a break in the rain/storms for Tuesday night
and Wed morning, before the next wave of low pressure reaches IL Wed
afternoon. Will keep lower chance PoPs during that time to account
for possible scattered redevelopment along lingering boundaries.

Our area will remain in the warm sector Monday afternoon through
Wednesday, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s Monday
through Tuesday, then climbing into the mid to upper 60s on
Wednesday. That will help fuel another round of strong to severe
storms late Wed afternoon but primarily Wed night, as MUCAPES
possibly reach 3000-4500 J/kg across our forecast area, with the
highest instability in southeast IL. Bulk shear values in SE IL will
be marginal again, with 20-35kts indicated in the 12z NAM output. We
ramped up PoPs Wed night to likely over most of our counties, as a
cold front pushes from west to east, reaching just east of I-57 by
12z/7am Thursday.

Cooler and drier air will filter into Illinois behind that cold
front, bringing a break in the rain for Thur and Thursday night.
Highs will be in the low to mid 70s on Thurs, with highs on
Friday in the upper 60s N of I-74 and low 70s S of I-70. Rain
chances will increase Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front
arrives from the Northern Plains. There are differing solutions in
the extended models about the path of the surface low, but timing
still looks close for Fri aftn and Fri night rain.

Dry and much cooler conditions are projected for next weekend,
with highs only in the upper 50s to low 60s on Saturday, and
overnight lows in the lower 40s Saturday night. Highs on Sunday
look to climb a few degrees above Saturday, as southerly winds
develop ahead of the next rain producer for Sunday night into
Monday.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016

Ceilings are gradually lowering as scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms continue across most of central IL north of I-70.
Current trends indicate predominant ceilings should remain just
above MVFR thresholds primarily, with local lowering into MVFR
category. Visibilities showing more coverage in MVFR category. The
feature producing the current activity should move north of the
area by around 12Z with lighter and less predominant showers. Have
therefore improved conditions to VFR starting 10-12Z and dropped
predominant rain mention at that point. Increasing chances for
thunderstorms can be expected in the afternoon, continuing into
the evening with cigs and vsby worsening into MVFR category. Winds
generally SE 8-14 kts through the period. &&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

606 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 530 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS SURGE OF HIGHER
THETA E AIR ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT SETS THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING
OVERALL SCENARIO THUS FAR TODAY WITH MAIN AREA OF RAIN MOVING AWAY
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF
INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE. IF THE HRRR HOLDS TRUE THEN A BAND OF
SHOWERS WOULD EXPAND AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND THEN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WOULD PERSIST
INTO TUESDAY. THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE TAKING PLACE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH A NE TREND SO SEE NO REASON NOT TO
INCREASE TO HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A MESS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SOME IN THE NE AND STEADY
MAYBE RISING IN THE SW DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PROGRESS NORTH THE
FRONT MAKES.

MAIN WAVE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING WITH FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW
AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT ASSESS SITUATION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

AS LONG WAVE TROUGH EJECTS THROUGH THE PLAINS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL MOVE BACK IN WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MAINTAINED
CHC TO LIKELY POPS THOUGH THIS TIME FRAME WITH DRYING BEHIND IT AS
WAVE DEPARTS...FRONT IS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS UPPER LOW
OVER CANADA SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH SENDING TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL WITH
A SERIES OF WAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE FLOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OVER FEW DAYS WARRANTING AT LEAST SOME MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FRI NGT INTO SAT AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AFTER MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH 00Z...MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA CHANCES WILL MOVE IN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT GRADUALLY WORSENING CONDITIONS
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY IFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN IFR MENTION IN TAF AT THIS POINT. THUNDER
CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 00Z AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS POINT. SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSBN...WITH SHOWERS MIXING DOWN INCREASED LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...NG

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

319 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S TODAY AND IN THE
LOW 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUESDAY. WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN
LIKELY OVERSPREAD ON WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

MAIN WAVE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING WITH FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW
AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT ASSESS SITUATION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL/NG
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...NG

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

114 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

WIDESPREAD STRATUS CONTINUES TO LIMIT INSTABILITY AS TEMPERATURES
WERE ONLY IN THE 50S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH. WATER VAPOR
LOOPS SHOW DECENT SHORT WAVE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO MO AND THIS
HAS TRIGGERED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN MO AND
SOUTHEAST IA. THIS WIDESPREAD NATURE TO THE PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT ALONG WITH THE CLOUD COVER. SPC HAS
ONLY A MARGINAL RISK IN THE DVN CWA BUT THE MAIN ISSUE HERE WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SUCH A SATURATED AIRMASS AND PWAT`S
TO 1.50 INCHES. THE HRRR INDICATES WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ALONG I-70 IN MO
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. A SHORT
WAVE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN IA WHICH
HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN IA AND A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE DVN CWA. CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE ONLY IN THE
50S IN THE CWA EXCEPT OUR FAR SOUTH WHICH WAS AROUND 60.

DIFFICULT FORECAST AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP INSTABILITY MINIMAL AS
THE LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGEST STRATUS ALL DAY LONG. A STRONGER SHORT
WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN OK SHOULD IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS
IN MO WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED...AND WHERE THE BETTER
CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST. THIS AREA OF STORMS SHOULD
STRATIFY OUT AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE DVN CWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE
THREAT ESPECIALLY OUR FAR SOUTH DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE AND IF ANY BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST CAN OCCUR. AT THIS
TIME THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW IN THE DVN CWA BUT WILL MONITOR
CLOUD TRENDS AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

DIFFICULT FORECAST REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THIS SHIFT AS
CURRENT TRENDS IN THE PRECIP HAVE NOT BEEN IDENTIFIED BY MANY
MODELS. HAVE SCALED BACK THE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. DEVELOPMENT DOWN ALONG THE WARM
ADVECTION WING HAS STARTED TO ENTER THE CWA. CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA HAS FORMED ON A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THINK THAT BY THE TIME THIS WAVE LIGHTS UP CONVECTION WELL INTO US
THE FORCING WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. RIGHT NOW MY GUT TELLS ME
THAT WE WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
NEXT...STRONGER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE
IN SOLUTIONS...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

EARLY THIS MORNING A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED OVER THE
MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THESE STORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE
EAST ON AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT. THE VORT MAX LEADING TO THESE
STORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL
GRAVITY WAVES HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED ON RADAR THIS MORNING. THESE
GRAVITY WAVES AND MID LEVEL FORCING WILL LIKELY DICTATE WEATHER
THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SHORT WAVE SWINGING NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW
SHOULD CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS WOULD BE HIGH IF IT WASN`T FOR
THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.

CONVECTION LINGERING FROM MOTHERS DAY WAS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA. GUIDANCE...INCLUDING RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR TRY TO
PUSH THIS NORTH AND MISS OUR AREA. I`M HAVING A HARD TIME SEEING
THIS HAPPENING AS A WARM ADVECTION WING IS MOVING NORTH. MOISTURE
POOLING ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IA WOULD SUPPORT THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS TO MOVE EAST INSTEAD OF NORTHEAST. WHAT MY GUT
TELLS ME IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR AREA
THROUGH MID-MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS COULD BE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING INTO VERY EARLIER AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THIS WOULD
AFFECT THE FORECAST CONDITIONS LATER TODAY.

THINK ONE OF TWO THINGS IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. 1. DECAYING
CONVECTION WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN FORCING MOVING NORTH.
A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WOULD
BE LOW IN THIS SCENARIO. 2. THE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST DECAYS FASTER
THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING SO THAT MORE INSTABILITY CAN FORM. IF
THIS IS THE CASE...STRONGER STORMS AND EVEN SEVERE WEATHER COULD
BE POSSIBLE. A LOW END RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. AS FOR A TORNADO THREAT...WITH THE
WARM FRONT AND BACKED SFC WINDS...THINK THAT THERE IS A LOW END
CHANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. IF A TORNADO
WERE TO FORM IT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND LIKELY FROM A MULTICELL
STORM. I DO NOT HAVE A FIRM GUT FEELING ON EITHER OF THESE
SCENARIOS. THIS MEANS THAT WE NEED TO WATCH THIS MORNING PLAY OUT
BEFORE WE HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF THIS EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A COMMON THEME
WITH BOTH OF THESES SCENARIOS ARE THAT OFBS MAY BE PRESENT AFTER
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. OBVIOUSLY THESE COULD SERVE AS FOCI FOR
TRAINING OF STORMS AND POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF WE COULD BUILD SOME SBCAPE. ALL MODELS ARE
LOW ON SBCAPE...BUT WITH TONIGHTS CONVECTION ITS ANYONES GAME.

AS FOR THE RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
AREAS TODAY COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN BY 12Z TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME ITS HARD FOR ME TO NAIL DOWN AN AREA WHERE THIS MIGHT
OCCUR WITH SO MUCH OF TODAY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS THIS
MORNING. IF I HAD TO CHOOSE AN AREA...PROXIMITY TO THE SFC WARM
FRONT WOULD LIKELY DELINEATE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FLOODING
WOULD BE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. SUFFICE
IT TO SAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH
FORECAST PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN TO LIFT
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING DECREASING TRENDS
TO MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE MODULATED BY PRECIP AND CLOUDS... WITH THERMAL PARAMETERS
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE WIDESPREAD MID 70S UNDER MORE PROLONGED SOLAR
INSOLATION BUT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ANTICIPATE PTCLDY PERIODS AT
BEST AND SO OPTED WITH BLEND RANGING FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO MID 70S
SOUTH. TUESDAY NIGHT... SHOULD BRING ABOUT QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
WITH INCOMING SUBSIDENCE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE. WE MAY HAVE SOME FOG POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT IN
PORTIONS OF CWA WITH WET GROUND AND GIVEN WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH
BOUNDARY IN VICINITY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE QUIET PERIOD PERSISTS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
DEPARTING TROUGH AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ENHANCED BY DIFFERENTIAL CVA AHEAD OF
NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ROTATING UNDER H5 LOW TRACKING FROM ND TO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z THURSDAY. TEMPS TOPPING IN THE 80S AND
DEWPTS IN THE 60S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE CAPE OF 1500-2500
J/KG. A FEW MODELS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-45 KTS
WHICH ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-
8.5 C/KM SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING WITH SOME RISK OF LONG LIVED MULTICELL CLUSTER(S)
AND/OR A FEW SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A
FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE IN THIS MODERATE/STRONG KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... COOLER WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY POST
FRONTAL USHERED IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION THURSDAY MID AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET WITH
SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT (POSSIBLY
30S IN SHELTERED AREAS NORTH WHERE WINDS DIMINISH ALLOWING DECOUPLING
OF BL) WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF INCOMING
WEAK SUBSIDENCE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... CONTINUED COOL DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND COMPLIMENTS
OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT HARBORING MAIN THRUST OF COLD ADVECTION. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY PM WITH GUSTY WINDS IN STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE REGIME.
HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY DROP INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ON SATURDAY WITH
850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -1C TO -4C 12Z SATURDAY RECOVERING TO AROUND
0C BY 00Z SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMP TECHNIQUE AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL INVERSION
SUGGEST AT LEAST MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGS FOR LOWS SUNDAY AM... WITH POTENTIAL
TO BE COLDER INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTH WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FROST RISK IN
SHELTERED OR LOW LYING AREAS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

MVFR/OCNL IFR CONDS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFTER 05Z/10. CONDS SHOULD BECOME MVFR POSSIBLY VFR
TUESDAY MORNING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. WINDS BECOMING
SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

950 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST TODAY AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO CIGS SHIFTING BETWEEN IFR...MVFR AND
VFR THIS MORNING UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT MOVES NORTH AND WE SEE MORE
IFR CIGS LATER THIS AM AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HEATING COULD CAUSE
SOME OF THESE CIGS TO RISE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVERTISING THAT
UNTIL THAT IS ACTUALLY SEEN IN THE OBS. THINK ALL OF THE TAF SITES
WILL SEE THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE ADDED
VCTS. SPECIFIC TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ELUSIVE AT THIS
TIME. LATER FORECASTS SHOULD REFINE THE TIMING.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

648 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

348 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WHICH CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
AFTER AN INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DECREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE...FOLLOWED
BY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS LIKELY MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...RP KINNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

954 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

Have updated the forecast to increase POPs to reflect a more
likely setup for elevated storms overnight. The HRRR, while
somewhat inconsistent with the reflectivity prog, continues to
develop elevated storms after 06Z and the latest RAP/NAM insist on
good low level moisture and theta-e advection developing
overnight. The moisture is not very far away with lower 70 degree
dewpoints observed in eastern OK. That moisture along with fairly
steep mid level lapse rates should yield CAPE values of 1000 to
2000 J/kg surging into eastern KS before daybreak. The 00Z NAM and
01Z RAP are weaker with an elevated mixed layer and given the
potential energy, large hail will remain possible with any
thunderstorm development. The limiting factor may be the effective
shear which is rather marginal. The only factor in not going with
categorical wording is concerns for coverage and the HRRR`s
inconsistent depiction of convection.

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

Currently, the 20Z WV shows a strong upper level trough over the
Northern Rockies with weak ridging centered over the Central Plains
into the Mid MS Valley. At the surface, a surface lee side low is
situated over southwestern KS and southeastern CO with a weak cold
boundary working into south central Nebraska and northwestern KS.

Pleasant conditions for northeastern KS hold through early evening
tonight with temps to top out generally in the low 80s in the next
hour. Lows tonight should fall into the low 60s and probably mid to
upper 50s in northwestern and northern counties along the KS/NE
stateline as an MCS/MCV is expected to develop over northwestern KS
later tonight and track just to the north of the stateline dragging
the southern portions of the complex through northeastern KS.
Therefore, threats tonight do include the possibility of hail and
some stronger winds, but the wind threat seems low due to the
boundary layer having time to cool and stabilize therefore setting
up an inversion before storms enter the region. Not expecting the
boundary layer to completely decouple, so there will be WAA in place
at the surface. However, some potential factors give only medium
confidence in how much elevated severe hail may develop. Most
guidance suggests that if we do see hail it will most likely be
north of I-70 as a LLJ does kick in above the inversion around 9-12Z
time frame. MUCAPE does reach up to 2500J/kg and lapse rates do
possibly steepen to around 7C/km and shear does seem adequate to see
some cells that could produce severe hail and possibly larger.
However, the overall best lift remains to the north in southeast
Nebraska, so ultimately, until the storms form, it is still hard to
see exactly how all these ingredients line up.
However, the bias from most short-term guidance seems to suggest
that the bulk of the activity will be to the north of the forecast
area in the morning.

The afternoon time frame has some question too depending on trailing
stratus and how persistent it is through the day. However, the best
chance for any severe storms in the afternoon will likely be very
southeastern and some eastern counties off through the Kansas City
area due to the cold frontal boundary finally pushing through after
00Z bringing an end to severe potential. Another complicating
factor for the afternoon is how much of a CAP is in place and

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

Wednesday Night through Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms move out of east central KS late Wednesday
evening, or shortly after midnight. With northwest flow aloft, high
pressure ridge builds southeast into the Central Plains for
Thursday, with pleasant temperatures in the 70s and low humidities.
Ridge moves off to the southeast Thursday night as southerly low-
level winds return ahead of a low pressure area approaching from
Nebraska. This low and associated cold front will not run into the
deeper moisture in eastern/east central Kansas until Thursday
afternoon, with thunderstorm development possible. Highs on
Thursday should be about 5 degrees warmer than those on Wednesday,
generally in the mid to upper 70s.

Friday Night through Tuesday...

Northwest flow aloft will be the dominate pattern throughout the
extended period. A weak cold front is expected to push across the
area Friday night into Saturday morning, bringing the chance for a
few showers/thunderstorms across the eastern half of the area. Very
weak shortwaves within the northwest flow will present slight
chances for rain showers Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will
also be noticeably cooler Saturday and Sunday with highs only in
the low to middle 60s. A low amplified trough across the western
United States will push eastward into the central and southern
plains on Monday, increasing chances for thunderstorms Monday
afternoon and evening. Severe weather chances appear low at this
point as moisture return appears very limited through midweek.
Zonal flow will then ensue for the remained of the period.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

Most of the model guidance shows strong low level moisture and
theta-e advection overnight with steep (approaching 8 C/km) mid
level lapse rates. Only think to preclude a prevailing TS group
was forecast soundings showing some inhibition and hi res models
favoring elevated development north of I-70. Will monitor trends
and amend if it looks like TS are more obvious overnight. Also
there is a strong signal for stratus moving in with the low level
moisture advection. Confidence in IFR CIGS is marginal at this
time but there is some potential for IFR CIGS.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Baerg/GDP
AVIATION...Wolters

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

542 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THIS EVENING. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
PERSISTENT IN CONSOLIDATION OF CENTRAL COLORADO STORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE REGION AS AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS
TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY CASTS A LITTLE DOUBT ON THAT
SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF ACTIVITY OVER MOST
OF THE REGION RIGHT NOW. AS A RESULT...DOWNGRADED SOME OF THE POPS
10-15 PERCENT.

ONLY SEVERE STORM...LOCATED IN NORTON COUNTY...IS NOW MOVING TO
THE EAST INTO THE HASTINGS, NEBRASKA FORECAST AREA. STORM WAS
SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE AT TIMES AND DID PRODUCE HAIL UP TO QUARTER
SIZE. FEEL THE SEVERE HAIL THREAT MIGHT BE OVER. THE PRIMARY
THREAT FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REST OF THIS
EVENING SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND HIGH
DCAPE WOULD SUPPORT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL
DOWNBURSTS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER EASTERN
KANSAS. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LOW. AT THE SURFACE...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS IN PLACE FROM JUST
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SNW HALF
OF THE CW (JUST NORTHWEST OF KMCK AND KGLD).

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SUBSIDENCE SPREADING OVER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST BY 12Z TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING PARTICULARLY
IN OUR NORTH AND EAST...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MEAN FLOW
WILL TEND TO BE PARALLEL TO FRONT AND POST FRONTAL ELEVATED
FRONTOGENESIS (850-700MB LAYER)...WHICH COULD SUPPORT TRAINING OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

REGARDING SEVERE THREAT...STRONG LINEAR/SPEED SHEAR IS IN PLACE AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING RAISING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS/MCS POTENTIAL. LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS LIMITED CAPE CURRENTLY
SHOW BY LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. GFS CURRENTLY REFLECTS CURRENT TRENDS
AND AT MOST HAS MU CAPE IN THE 500-900 J/KG RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER MU CAPE IN THE 900-
1500 J/KG RANGE IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE NAM ALREADY SEEMS TO BE RUNNING HIGH ON
TDS THIS IS LIKELY INFLUENCING ITS CAPE PROFILES. IF GFS CONTINUES
TO VERIFY I AM SKEPTICAL THAT WE WOULD SEE MORE THAN SHOWERS AND
MARGINAL THUNDERSTORMS. WITH INVERTED V PROFILES ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
STRONG WINDS WILL BE A PRIMARY THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS. IF
HIGHER CAPE (NAM) VERIFIES THEN WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED QUARTER SIZE
HAIL THREAT.

WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING
SHOULD END WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN ROTATES THROUGH THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRECIP
SIGNAL IN OUR SOUTHWEST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND I STUCK WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY I AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE ACTIVITY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS (MAINLY
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S).

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. THE RIDGE
REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN AND
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ROTATE IN FROM
THE WEST NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND AROUND A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WENT WITH DRY POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE BLEND GAVE 40 TO 50
PERCENT POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
SOME SUBSIDENCE TO OVERCOME AS THE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD THUS I
REDUCED POPS SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY...POPS REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AS THE LOW
MOVES OVER THE CWA AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN IS SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR-TERM HOURS OF PREVIOUS TAFS. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO CONSOLIDATING INTO AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER...SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF INSTABILITY CASTS
DOUBT ON THIS SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE A TEMPO GROUP TO
PREVAIL THUNDERSTORMS BUT UNSURE IF THIS WILL PAN OUT.

STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT IN
THE MOIST...POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THINKING STRATUS REMAINS
SOUTH AND EAST OF BOTH TAF SITES. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH CLEARING SKIES BY TOMORROW
MORNING.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

211 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SECONDARY CLOSED ROTATION ACROSS SW
KANSAS. UPSTREAM A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL MONTANA
AND ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO. ANOTHER UPPER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS IN OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH COLD FRONT/WARM FRONT EAST OF OUR CWA. A
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM YUMA COUNTY TO NEAR KGLD
AND SOUTH.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...VORTICITY ALOFT ROTATING ROUND UPPER LOW IN
THE SOUTH AND NORTH OF OUR CWA WILL COMBINE WITH RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR CWA TO BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD
AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN OUR FAR SOUTH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW INITIATION ROUGHLY ALONG COLORADO STATE LINE AND EAST WHERE
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE WITH PEAK COVERAGE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER SUNRISE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING PUT AN END TO ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY.

REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TD VALUES AROUND 50-58 ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA AND HAVE LED TO SB CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG
(WHICH RAPIDLY DROPS OFF IN THE WEST). DEEP LAYER SHEER HOWEVER IS
UNIMPRESSIVE (BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER BELOW 30KT)...SO MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE IN STRENGTH. CONSIDERING CAPE IN OUR EAST I
WOULDNT RULE OUT A A FEW NEAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (HAIL/WIND) ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE CAPE IN OUR EAST.

SHORT RANGE ANALYSIS ALSO CURRENTLY SHOWS STRONG LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
AND GOOD 0-3KM CAPE NEAR SURFACE TROUGH IN OUR EAST AND THIS COULD
SET THE STAGE FOR LANDSPOUT DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE LOW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
UPDRAFTS IN THIS REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH RIGHT NOW.

TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER IDAHO WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH BASE OF TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND A STRONG
JET STREAK/MID LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BEGIN TO ROTATE TOWARDS OUR CWA.
DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WITHIN SW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING
OUR CWA FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL CONTINUES TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD ALONG
COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON BL MOISTURE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CAPE VALUES
COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 500 J/KG TO 1500 J/KG. SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER WITH DEEP MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE (PWATS OVER
1.0") WE COULD SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016

LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE UPPER PLAINS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED POPS ON AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT THIS
POINT HOWEVER WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING BOTH THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH MOVES TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING IN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE IT
BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES EAST. POPS INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY...AS
ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST...DRIVEN
BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER MANITOBA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2016

STRATUS WITH CIGS 1000-2000 FT CONTINUE EARLY THE TAF PERIOD OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT KMCK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO VFR.
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH ACTIVITY
RAPIDLY COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING. GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AT KMCK AND GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
LIGHT FOG (5-6SM) AND MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING AT KMCK BY SUNRISE.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

259 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SEMI-DIFFUSE DRYLINE LOCATED ROUGHLY
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SALINA TO
MEDICINE LODGE. CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ERUPT ALONG THE DRYLINE
JUST TO THE EAST OF P28.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AIRMASS DESTABILIZING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AS THE CLEARING CONTINUES...WITH MOST AREAS SLOWLY BECOMING
UNCAPPED. LATEST HI-RES MODELS (NAMNEST/ARW) SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE OK
PANHANDLE ROTATES EAST. GIVEN SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS...THINK A BROKEN LINE OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. BETTER BULK SHEAR IS
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...SO THINK THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
BE LOCATED ALONG OR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400. AS THE SUPERCELLS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KS PROGRESS TO THE EAST...THERE IS A A REMOTE CHANCE
OF A TORNADO...WHERE 0-1 KM SHEAR IS AROUND 20 KTS...BUT THINK THIS
CHANCE IS VERY SLIM...AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MARGINAL AND BETTER A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN OK. PREFER TO EMPHASIZE THE LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE
FLINT HILLS AND SE KS. BUT THE FURTHER EAST THE STORMS GET THE LESS
ORGANIZED THEY WILL BE...GIVEN THE BETTER BULK SHEAR SHIFTING INTO
SW MO BETWEEN 00-06Z. SO MORE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT.

MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING...
WITH MOST OF THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT.
SHOULD SEE A NICE WARMUP ON TUE...AS S-SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WITH MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 80S.

LATEST GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW THE LOW MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNING TO
THE AREA FOR TUE EVENING/NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KS. EXPECT THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL KS FOR LATE TUE EVENING OR POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT TUE...WITH CONVERGENCE INCREASING ENOUGH FOR A STRONG
STORM CHANCE...LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS FROM KSLN TO KCNU.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS INTO SE KS
ON WED...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE FLINT
HILLS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED. BOTH THE GFS/NAM/WRF SHOW THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OR BEING SITUATED ACROSS SE KS FOR LATE
WED AFTERNOON...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS SE KS FOR LATE WED AFTERNOON OR WED EVENING. SO WILL KEEP
POPS GOING FOR MOST OF SE KS FOR WED EVENING.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THU WILL PLAY OUT.
THE NAM/WRF BLOWS UP A COMPLEX OF STORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND
DROPS IT E-SE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR LATE
WED NIGHT. WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THIS COMPLEX FURTHER SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PREFER TO KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL KS DRY FOR NOW...AND GO
WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS SOLUTION.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME WILL PLAY OUT. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG THE MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THE GFS FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE FASTER AND
ALLOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO THE PLAINS FASTER...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A MORE UNSETTLED WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A LOT
DRIER AND KEEPS THE MOISTURE RETURN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE
KS/OK BORDER. FOR CONSENSUS SAKE PREFER THE WETTER GFS
SOLUTION...KEEPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

KETCHAM

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CIGS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SCT-BKN DECK OF 2500 TO 3500 WILL
EXIST FOR ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
FROM THE FLINT HILLS EAST AFTER 19-20Z AND MOVE EASTWARD. THIS
WILL AFFECT KCNU AND BRING ABOUT VCTS AND A BKN DECK AT 2500 AND
LOWER IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF STORMS. FURTHER WEST...STORMS WILL
FIRE ALONG THE DRY LINE AFTER 21Z AND AFFECT KSLN AND KICT...AND
POSSIBLY KHUT. ONCE AGAIN VCTS AND CIGS OF 2500 ARE POSSIBLE AND
LOWER IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF STORMS. AFTER ABOUT 3-4Z AT ALL
SITES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

CHANCE

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 57 86 63 77 / 30 10 20 30
HUTCHINSON 55 86 59 73 / 20 10 20 30
NEWTON 57 85 61 75 / 30 10 20 30
ELDORADO 58 85 63 79 / 30 10 20 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 57 86 64 80 / 30 10 20 20
RUSSELL 53 84 54 69 / 20 10 40 30
GREAT BEND 53 85 54 70 / 20 10 30 30
SALINA 55 85 58 72 / 30 10 30 30
MCPHERSON 55 85 58 72 / 30 10 30 30
COFFEYVILLE 62 84 65 82 / 50 10 20 40
CHANUTE 62 83 64 80 / 50 10 20 40
IOLA 62 83 64 79 / 50 10 20 40
PARSONS-KPPF 62 84 65 81 / 50 10 20 40

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KETCHAM
LONG TERM...KETCHAM
AVIATION...CWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1139 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2016

THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING LIFTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY
AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
U.S. TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SWINGS THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THE SURFACE LOW OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS REMAINS GENERALLY IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
BECOMES MORE BROAD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO
EASTERN MONTANA. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW CENTER BEGINS TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH A
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEEPENING IN PANHANDLE REGION. THE UPPER
LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA LIFTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY
WEDNESDAY WITH A THROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT
A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION DURING THIS TIME WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TRANSITIONING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE JET MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND ALONG
WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WITH STRONG LIFT SHOWING UP IN TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THAT WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DRIES WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT ONLY ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS THE COOLER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
TROUGH THAT IMPACTED THE REGION EARLIER IN THE WEEK MOVES EAST.
THERE IS A RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL BUMP
UP HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND 80S. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RIGHT
NOW THE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN LOCATION OF THIS LOW...WITH THE
GFS PUTTING IT IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EUROPEAN PUTTING IT
OVER WASHINGTON/OREGON. THE MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON HOW THEY HAVE
THIS LOW MOVING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN HAS IT SITTING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATE THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. WHERE AS THE GFS HAS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVING
TOWARDS THE CWA. BRINGING WITH IT A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE STORMS ARE FORECASTED DUE TO FAIR BULK SHEAR VALUES...BUT THIS
COULD JUST BE A RAIN SHOWER EVENT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS THE
DAY APPROACHES AND MODELS START TO AGREE MORE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2016

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...DR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1232 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016

Strong shortwave entering SW KS as of early afternoon. This
disturbance will bring an increase in clouds, and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon. An
increase in instability is expected this afternoon, with the most
unstable air favoring the NE counties. Stronger storms in this
region may produce marginally severe hail. Will need to monitor
the eastern zones this afternoon. HRRR runs develop more robust
convection along our eastern border by 4 pm, on the western
periphery of much greater instability. Feel most severe potential
will remain in WFO Wichita`s CWA, but it will be monitored.
Any convection will be diurnally driven, and diminish quickly
around sunset. A clearing sky expected overnight, with min
temperatures Tuesday morning ranging from the mid 40s NW to mid
50s SE.

Tuesday...Noticeably warmer. Short high pressure ridge axis passes
SW KS around sunrise, with SW flow aloft by afternoon. 850 mb
temperatures spike nicely, into the 20-25C range, which translates
into high temperatures well into the 80s. Some locales along the
Oklahoma border will achieve lower 90s. Winds will trend SE
through the afternoon in response to pressure falls and surface
cyclogenesis in SE Colorado. Strong closed low will be well north
of SW KS, in the Dakotas, by afternoon, while the associated cold
front approaches the NW zones late in the day. NAM/ECMWF both
suggest scattered convection developing ahead of this frontal
boundary across the NW zones around 4 pm Tuesday. Moisture will be
limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the 40s to near 50 at
best. CAPE may approach 1000 J/kg locally. Any convection across
the NW zones will be high-based, with the potential for downburst
wind gusts and small hail. SPC`s marginal 5% wind/hail outlook
that clips our northern zones looks plausible. Feel the marginal
wind/hail threat will extend down the cold front to include the
far SW counties as well, especially through Tuesday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 9 2016

For Tuesday into Wednesday, another upper trough moves across the
Central Plains. Will carry 20 to 40 percent chances for showers and
thunderstorms with this wave, mainly on Wednesday morning, as a cold
front passes through. Highs warm into the mid to upper 80s ahead of
the front on Tuesday, then fall into the upper 60s to low 70s on
Wednesday.

For the period of Thursday into next Weekend, some minor chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be mainly east and southeast of Dodge
City as some waves in northwest flow aloft move across the region.
Another cold front moves across the Central Plains on Friday with
much cooler temps into the Weekend. Highs warm back into the 70s and
around 80 on Thursday and Friday ahead of the cold front, then cool
into the 60s for the Weekend. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016

A strong shortwave entering SW KS at midday will spread broken
clouds and isolated to scattered -SHRA and -TSRA across SW KS
this afternoon through sunset. Any impacts to aviation should be
brief/temporary and only carried VCTS/CB in the 18z TAFs. Highest
instability forecasted to be near HYS, where a marginally severe
storm may develop near the airport through sunset. Convection will
rapidly diminish at sunset, with SKC overnight. Some west wind
gusts near 20 kts this afternoon away from any convection.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 79 51 85 53 / 20 10 10 20
GCK 77 49 84 50 / 30 10 20 30
EHA 77 50 86 49 / 20 0 10 20
LBL 80 48 87 52 / 20 0 10 10
HYS 78 52 80 52 / 30 20 30 50
P28 83 54 88 57 / 20 10 0 10

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Turner

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

757 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMMONWEALTH...INCLUDING EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HAVE UPPED POPS AND INCLUDED SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO PULSE TOWARD SEVERE
CRITERIA. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE IN
DIAMETER REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. A STORM SYSTEM HAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN KY...ALREADY RESULTING IN MULTIPLE SEVERE AND TORNADO
WARNINGS. INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN KY HAS INCREASED WITH THE
LATEST NAM RUNS...WITH 2K J/KG EXPECTED BY 21Z. HOWEVER...HIGHEST
CAPE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS WEST OF THE CWA...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME LARGE HAIL MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA. FURTHERMORE STRONG LLVL WIND
SHEAR...WITH THE BULK OF THE SHEAR BELOW 4K FT...ALSO SHOWING A HIGH
POSSIBILITY FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. GIVEN THE
HISTORY OF THESE STORMS SO FAR...CAN ALSO EXPECT A LARGE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

HI RES MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME AGREEING ON THE SHORT
TERM...ESPECIALLY THE TRACK OF STORMS AS THEY HEAD INTO OUR REGION.
THIS MORNING THE HRRR INITIALIZED THE BEST...BUT DID NOT HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN KY. LATER ON...THE HI
RES ARW HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE DYING SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA AND
THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. IF THIS HELD TRUE IT SHOWED THE SYSTEM
COLD POOLING THEN DIVING SOUTHWARD...LIKELY ONLY CLIPPING OUR SW
COUNTIES. THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SEEMED TO COME INTO A SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE CURRENT CONVECTION TRAVELING ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER...WITH ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REACH NORTH CENTRAL KY AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 0
AND 6Z. BASED NEAR TERM POPS ON THIS IDEA...HOWEVER AM A BIT
CONCERNED THAT THIS IS A BIT SLOW...AS THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALREADY BE
EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AT THAT POINT.

SRLY WINDS AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
WHILE WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW DRY PERIODS...THE
WEATHER AS A WHOLE WILL REMAIN VERY UNSETTLED. THE PERIOD WILL
START AS A COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING ON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
FRONT SHOULD DEPART EARLY FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
RETURNING FOR FRIDAY. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. THE
QUESTION THEN TURNS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP
HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING
ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS ZONE...SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS
INTO NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING INTO POTENTIALLY EARLY TONIGHT. IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH ANY STORMS...WHILE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SATURATED LOW LEVELS REMAIN IN PLACE. MAY SEE
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING GREAT ENOUGH CHANCES/COVERAGE TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR UNDERNEATH THUNDERSTORMS WHERE MUCH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GUSEMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

223 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

REMOVED THUNDER FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT LOOKING IMPRESSIVE. THE CHANCE OF ANYTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS LOOKS VERY MINIMAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

BLENDED MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITH NO SUBSTANTIVE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES IN TODAY AS VERY LIGHT
RETURNS ARE SEEN ON RADAR AND DRIFTING THIS WAY. THE KY MESONET
AND OTHER OBS INDICATE NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF A HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN FROM THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WX FOR THIS.
ALSO...TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING
BACK NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS PUSHING LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH AND OUT OF THE CWA...BUT LEAVING PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND...LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHOWERS. A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE HAS
SET UP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MANY LOW SPOTS IN
THE LOWER 50S WHILE RIDGES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...VARY FROM THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST
PARTS OF THE AREA TO THE UPPER 40S IN NORTHEAST. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT EASTERN KENTUCKY.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT ENERGY PACKETS CROSSING KENTUCKY IN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A PLAINS LOW OPENS UP AND WORKS NORTHEAST. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST WILL PIVOT JUST
NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY DRAGGING LOWER HEIGHTS AND ITS
CORE ENERGY THROUGH THE STATE. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A TAD
STRONGER WITH THIS EVOLUTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER...THE
DIFFERENCE DOES NOT AFFECT ITS SOLUTION MUCH AND IT WILL BE LEANED
TOWARD AS A HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL OPTION FOR THE TUESDAY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...A GENERAL MODEL BLEND...AND FAVORING OF THE
HRRR EARLY ON...GUIDED THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE SUNSHINE.
LOOK FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. A
STRAY SHOWER OR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS
HAPPENS...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING MAINLY JUST NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN NEARER THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN AS THE EXPANSIVE SFC LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. FOR TUESDAY...EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE FIRMLY IN
THE LARGE SYSTEM/S WARM SECTOR. ACCORDINGLY...LOOK FOR INSTABILITY
TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY...FUELED BY INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. IN ADDITION...SOME WIND SHEER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL. IN FACT...SOME MCS
ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ALSO IMPACT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
SPC HAS OUTLINED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...
GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 75...FOR A SLIGHT RISK LATER TUESDAY.
THE REST OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.

INITIALIZED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND FOR
MOST BASIC ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR RIDGE/VALLEY
TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS TO KEEP A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALBEIT
MOSTLY JUST SMALL CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES IN THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEP TROUGH TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH
WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING PIECES OF ENERGY TO
DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH EAST AND
FLATTEN OUT AS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS KENTUCKY RESUMES ALOFT BY MONDAY.

AT THE SFC...A SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THE FIRST LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WILL CROSS THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT LOW WILL CROSS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. RAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE BREIF PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE SHOULD BE
LOCALIZED AND VERY SHORT-LIVED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
10 KTS.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

124 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

BLENDED MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITH NO SUBSTANTIVE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1059 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

BLENDED MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITH NO SUBSTANTIVE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA...ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND
VERY SHORT-LIVED. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED SMALL CHANCE FOR A
STRAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

750 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

335 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 DURING THE REST OF
THE NIGHT...ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND
SHORT-LIVED. SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS REVOLVE AROUND PATCHY FOG
THROUGH DAWN. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR STRAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH ON
MONDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
328 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon May 9 2016

Over the next few days, there will be several chances for showers
and thunderstorms over central KY and south-central IN. However,
delineating exact timing, coverage, and intensity of convection is
a bit tenuous given much mesoscale influence expected to convective
evolution. Nevertheless, synoptically a mean mid-level trough axis
over the Rockies will push eastward today and Tuesday across the
Plains and mid MS Valley, eventually through the OH Valley. Episodic
convection with this feature will lay out various boundaries and
cloud shields that will dictate daily destabilization and ultimate
convective development.

For today, it will be mostly cloudy as a mid/upper-level moisture
stream flows northeast across our area. Meanwhile, a weak frontal
boundary over KY will lift north putting us into the warm sector.
The 00z operational models, including the high-res HRRR and WRF NMM
suggest that scattered showers will move northeast across the north
and west portions of our forecast area today. Highest POPs (still in
chance/scattered category) will be over west-central KY though south-
central IN today, with lowest chances in eastern parts of south-
central KY. Rainfall amounts should be less than a quarter inch.

By late today and tonight, models suggest a lull in precip with just
debris clouds streaming northeast. However, a line of strong to
severe convection (QLCS) will develop over parts of the lower to mid
MS Valley late today and move northeast into the lower OH Valley
late tonight/Tuesday morning supported by a negative-tilted trough
aloft. Nevertheless, models suggest convection will be weakening as
it enters our forecast area. POPs in grids have been adjusted to
account for these latest expected trends tonight/Tuesday morning.

On Tuesday, any morning activity should push through with some
afternoon sunshine and cool air aloft resulting in steepening lower
and mid-level lapse rates and at least moderate instability. The
main question will be amount of debris clouds leftover from the
morning (depicted most by the NAM) which could limit instability.
However, general consensus is that robust destabilization will occur
in the afternoon. In addition, shear profiles are not bad with a
south surface wind veering to 50-60 kts at 300 mb. While organized
forcing is a bit tenuous at this time, scattered to numerous
convective development appears probably Tuesday afternoon or
evening, some some strong to severe cells that could produce wind
damage and hail.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon May 9 2016

...More chances for thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday...

The weather pattern will continue active during the mid week period
with pretty good model agreement/consensus on the synoptic pattern.
A possible mesoscale convective system late Tuesday/Tuesday night
will have moved to our east by Wednesday. In its wake, a flat mid-
level ridge axis will progress across the OH Valley. This will lead
to some sunshine and potentially moderate to strong instability
during the afternoon as surface temperatures warm into the lower to
mid 80s, and surface dewpoints increase into the lower and mid 60s.
Forcing for convection, however, appears somewhat weak during the
day, with more of a pulse storm situation, i.e., isolated to
scattered cells that could be strong with locally gusty winds.

For late Wednesday night and especially Thursday, another trough
axis aloft will approach the OH Valley, with potential for more
organized convection. Models do show timing differences, but agree
on the convective signal. A QLCS will be possible during this
period.

Rainfall amounts from Tuesday through Thursday will vary
significantly depending on convective evolution each day, and
whether cells propagate over the same areas. Overall, 1-2 inches are
possible, although local amounts around 3 inches are in play if
episodic convection trains over similar locations.

Drier air will finally move into the area Friday as the flow aloft
becomes northwesterly. This will be short-lived, however, as a
digging shortwave in the flow brings another chance of showers about
Saturday with additional showers possible again late next weekend.
High temperatures late next week (Friday) through next weekend will
be cooler in the lower 70s Friday and perhaps only in the 60s next
weekend.

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 125 AM EDT Mon May 9 2016

Complicated upper level pattern in place over the U.S. is making
timing of precipitation even in the first 24 hours difficult. A
short wave swinging around Low pressure centered over the Rockies
will move through the Ohio River Valley today, but model guidance
varies greatly on whether or not this could bring showers to the
three TAF sites during the daylight hours today. There is better
agreement on convection just beyond the 24-hr TAF time frame -
in the outlook period for KSDF.

With surface high pressure over West Virginia still dominating the
low-level flow at 05Z, surface winds were still from the east,
though were beginning to work their way around to the south, helping
to usher in higher dewpoints in advance of the short wave which
would aid convection. Given model uncertainty, lack of ongoing
convection, and relatively minimal lower level moisture field, will
only go VCSH today, and keep CIGS at or above 050. As mentioned
above, winds will swing around to south, generally under 10 kt, but
possibly with some gusts to around 15kt.

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........TWF
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........JBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

215 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ADD IN THE LATEST CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR
T/TD/WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED THESE FOR
THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THE MAIN THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HAS
LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA SO POPS AND WX WERE UPDATED...AS WELL.
THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1053 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

CONTINUE TO SEE SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY. ENOUGH MOISTURE COUPLED
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THIS AREA...SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION FOR
NOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMAL IF ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

A WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE JKL
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AS YOU HEADED NORTH OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAD
EXITED TO THE NORTHEAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE WARM FRONT
WILL VERY SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD...EXITING NORTH OF THE JKL
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALOFT...WEAK RIDGING IS MOVING
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN
WEAKER WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE RIDGE...COUPLED WITH THE
BROADER AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW
MORE SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA AT TIMES. THE
FIRST OF THESE WAVES PASSES THIS EVENING...AND THE NEXT ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND A MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES FROM THE WEST. AT THE SAME
TIME...BETTER INFLOW FROM THE GULF ALSO STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS TO START MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAYTIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED. THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO HAVE ACROSS THE
MS AND OH VALLEY REGIONS IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS
THE CURRENT ROCKIES CLOSED LOW INTERACTS WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE FIRST OF THE
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
BEHIND IT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE THE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
INTO THE PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF A
CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A RIDGE
BRIEFLY AMPLIFIES FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES BY THU AND
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED OVER
NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...A BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION SHOULD LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...PUTTING THE REGION IN WARM SECTOR OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOW MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY REGIONS.
THIS LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AND SEND A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
THU INTO THU EVENING. A SECONDARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
IN NW FLOW SHOULD APPROACH TO START THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
BOUNDARY LIKELY SETTLING SOUTH OF THE AREA TO END THE WEEKEND.

RATHER HIGH POPS WERE USED FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY SHOULD LEAD TO BETTER
FORCING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. A DIURNAL TREND IN POPS WAS
USED ON WED DURING PEAK HEATING...HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD MAY COME ON THU INTO THU EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE CONSENSUS FOR NOW IS THAT
MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE BULK OF FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE WEEKEND ON FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES IN NW TO W FLOW ALOFT AS THE
PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A ZONAL NATURE TO END THE PERIOD COULD
PROLONG THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE DEPARTING BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTH.

THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THAT MATERIALIZES WILL DETERMINE
THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION WHEN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS BEST ON
TUE INTO TUE EVENING AND AGAIN ON THU. MOISTURE AND HEATING COULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR CAPE TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG ON TUE AFTERNOON AND
OR EVENING WITH LI POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS -2C TO -4C. WINDS ALOFT
ARE NOT INCREDIBLY STRONG SO SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF
THE ORDINARY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM MON NIGHT CONVECTION MAY LIMIT HEATING ON TUESDAY.
THE SAME MAY HAPPEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD
AS CLOUD COVER AND RATHER MOIST ATMOSPHERE LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGES.TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL TO END THE
PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
132 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Mon May 9 2016

Over the next few days, there will be several chances for showers
and thunderstorms over central KY and south-central IN. However,
delineating exact timing, coverage, location, and intensity of
convection is difficult given much mesoscale influence expected to
convective evolution. Synoptically, a mean mid-level trough axis
over the Rockies will push eastward today and Tuesday across the
Plains and mid MS Valley, eventually through the OH Valley. Episodic
convection will this feature will lay out various boundaries and
cloud shields that will dictate daily destabilization and ultimate
convective development.

Trying to delineate daily tendencies, today appears to be mostly
cloudy as debris clouds from convection to our west streams across
the area. At the same time, a weak frontal boundary over KY will
lift north putting our area into the warm sector. The GFS and NAM
hint that scattered showers and embedded thunder may develop later
this morning and move northeast across the north and west portions
of our forecast area today. This is supported most by the HRRR and
WRF NMM models, although not much shows up at this time in the
source region of where these models develop the showers.
Nevertheless, will retain highest POPs (scattered) over west-central
KY to south-central IN today. Rainfall amounts should be mainly less
than a quarter inch where rain occurs.

After this activity passes, high-resolution models suggest a lull in
precip this evening/tonight with just debris clouds streaming
northeast. However, these same models suggest a line of strong to
severe convection (QLCS) will develop over parts of the lower to mid
MS Valley late today and move northeast into the lower OH Valley
late tonight/Tuesday morning supported by the trough axis aloft,
albeit convection will be weakening as it enters our forecast area.
POPs in our current grid forecast appear too high too quickly
tonight, so have trimmed them back, with highest values Tuesday
morning.

On Tuesday, any morning activity should push through with some
afternoon sunshine and cool air aloft resulting in steepening lower
and mid-level lapse rates resulting in moderate instability.
GFSismore emphatic with this scenario than the NAM which keeps more
clouds and less destabilization over our area. Organized forcing is
a bit tenuous at this time, but scattered convection, some strong if
enough destabilization can occur, is possible late Tuesday
afternoon/evening.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun May 8 2016

An area of showers and storms will be ongoing across the region on
Tuesday morning. These storms look to weaken and push east through
the morning hours. The upper level wave will continue to slowly push
into the lower Ohio Valley through the day Tuesday and will move
east of the area by Wednesday morning. Another round of storms is
expected to fire up to the west in the afternoon and move through
during the afternoon to evening hours. The question with this
activity will be the severe potential. Soundings show 1000-1500 J/kg
of CAPE developing with wind shear increasing in the afternoon and
evening. Some strong to severe storms are not out of the question.
However, this will be complicated by earlier convection and if
clouds clear during the afternoon. Still, the system bears watching
over the next couple of days.

Wednesday the area looks to be in the warm sector and scattered
thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon.
There will then be another chance for storms Wednesday night into
Thursday morning as a cold front sweeps through. Behind this front
ridging will build in bringing a brief respite from the rounds of
showers and storms. All in all 1-2 inches of rain with locally
higher amounts can be expected this week.

After the brief break on Friday another wave will bring some rain to
the area late Friday night into early Friday morning.

Temperatures will be on the warmer side in the mid 70s to lower 80s
through Thursday. We will then have cooler air build in behind the
front with highs Friday through the weekend in the mid 60s to lower
70s.

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 125 AM EDT Mon May 9 2016

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........JBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

1001 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.UPDATE...
SLY WINDS 5-10 MPH CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. THIS HAS ALSO ALLOWED FOR LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD INLAND ACRS
SE TX AND EXTREME SW LA...WHILE HIGH CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE
REGION FM THE WEST. NO CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON KLCH 88D
IN THE CWA...BUT A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS CNTL TX CONTINUES TO
MARCH EAST. RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES OUR WRN ZONES BUT COULD HOLD TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED
POPS/WX TO REFLECT THIS TREND WHILE MAKING MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS TO BRING IN LINE WITH RECENT OBS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BPT HAVING MVFR CEILINGS...VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN THIS EVENING...EXPECTING TO PREVAIL
AREAWIDE BY 06Z. S TO SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
WELL...WITH A GRADUALLY LOWERING TO INTERMITTENT IFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 10-14Z FOR BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO SCT OUT
AFTER 15Z WITH THE INCREASE OF SE TO S WINDS ~12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
OVER 20 KTS.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DEPICTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU OVER THE
AREA. ALL MID AND UPPER CLOUDINESS HAS NOW EXITED THE AREA.
SOMEWHAT BREEZY SOUTHERLIES ONGOING BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND SOUTH PLAINS LOW. STILL
CONSIDERABLY LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY. OVERALL...A VERY PLEASANT
DAY ONGOING WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE THE NORM. VERY
SIMILAR DAY AHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY.

BEGIN THE INTRODUCTION OF RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY. MID-UPPER LOW
NOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN MONTANA PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS TO
TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AND THEN FURTHER EAST. ACCOMPANYING TROFFING
ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH
FEATURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ADVANCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAKING FOR A VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND.

MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-WEEK. A COLD FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTHERLIES WILL FOLLOW ITS PASSAGE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 70 87 70 87 / 10 10 0 30
LCH 73 83 72 85 / 10 0 10 20
LFT 72 85 72 86 / 10 10 10 20
BPT 74 84 73 84 / 20 0 10 20

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

1242 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

.AVIATION...
VFR GENERALLY PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. FCST SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHTS
DEPICT CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE THE DRY LAYER PRESENT ON THE
KLCH MORNING RAOB...WITH EVENTUAL MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT ALL
TERMINALS...LARGELY IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO
PREVAIL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING THIS EVENING AS AT
LEAST SOME DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE AND WINDS OFF THE SFC VEER MORE
TWD THE SOUTHWEST. PROGS INDICATE MOST SITES SHOULD LOWER BUT
REMAIN IN MVFR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAEX WHERE A
TEMPO IFR WAS USED.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...WINDY AFTERNOON AHEAD AS AREA REMAINS BETWEEN
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED
SOMEWHAT AS WAKE LOW ADVANCES EAST FROM COASTAL TEXAS.
OTHERWISE...RADAR SHOWING NO MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES
INLAND...POSSIBLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
THIS ACTIVITY ALIGNED ALONG A VORT LOBE AND EMBEDDED VORT MAXIMA.
ACTIVITY PROGGED TO ADVANCE EAST BY THE HRRR WITH LITTLE IF ANY
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING MID-TEXAS DRYLINE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SATELLITE SHOWING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...WEATHER DEPICTION ANALYSIS SHOWS LOWER CLOUDS
RATHER SPARSE AT THE MOMENT. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...MVFR CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. EVENTUALLY BY 01Z...ALL TAF
SITES WILL BE MVFR. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER AREA THIS MORNING
BUT RAIN CHANCES LOOKING SPARSE AS MOISTURE SOUNDING REMAINS ON THE
LOWER SIDE THIS MORNING AND IN LINE WITH LAST EVENING SOUNDING RUN.

DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FL MAINTAINING A SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND
MAINTAINS A GOOD GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE NRN PLAINS WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ROUNDING IT...THE MOST A SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH IS
CROSSING THE 4-CORNERS REGION ATTM. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RETURNS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE WRN
ZONES...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ON 00Z KLCH SOUNDING
EXPECT LITTLE OF THE LIGHTER RETURNS TO ACTUALLY BE REACHING THE
GROUND. A FEW BURSTS OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ARE NOTED UPSTREAM
AND WITHIN HERE IS WHERE SOME RAIN IS FALLING PER SFC OBS.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE
FORECAST AREA THANKS TO THE COMBO OF INCREASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES WHERE THE MID-LEVEL SPEED
MAX AND AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET ARE PROGGED TO MOST IMPACT...
WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE OPENS
UP AND LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION.

ALSO OF INTEREST TODAY IS THE INHERITED WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SRN
1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST WIND PROGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 20 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30. THEREFORE THE ADVISORY
HAS BEEN LEFT UNCHANGED ATTM. THE DAYSHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS NORTH OF THE ADVISORY IN CASE IT NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED
SPATIALLY LATER TODAY TO ACCOUNT.

AFTER ANOTHER SLIM SHOT AT PRECIP ON TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...NEXT REASONABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS DEEP TROFFING DEVELOPS OVER THE CNTL
CONUS AND IN TURN PULLS A COOL FRONT SWD INTO THE AREA. THEREAFTER
A BRIEF SHOT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND THE INTRUSION OF SOME DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...
MAINTAINED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MUCH OF TODAY GIVEN SRLY FLOW STILL EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 83 72 86 70 / 20 20 20 10
LCH 81 72 82 71 / 30 20 10 10
LFT 81 73 83 72 / 20 20 10 10
BPT 82 72 84 71 / 40 10 10 10

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ041>045-
052>055-073-074.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ215-216.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ430-432-
435-455-475.

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR GMZ455-475.

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT
CDT TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-470-472.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-470-472.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

1102 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...WINDY AFTERNOON AHEAD AS AREA REMAINS BETWEEN
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED
SOMEWHAT AS WAKE LOW ADVANCES EAST FROM COASTAL TEXAS.
OTHERWISE...RADAR SHOWING NO MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES
INLAND...POSSIBLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
THIS ACTIVITY ALIGNED ALONG A VORT LOBE AND EMBEDDED VORT MAXIMA.
ACTIVITY PROGGED TO ADVANCE EAST BY THE HRRR WITH LITTLE IF ANY
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING MID-TEXAS DRYLINE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

MARINE...
MAINTAINED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MUCH OF TODAY GIVEN SRLY FLOW STILL EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 83 72 86 70 / 20 20 20 10
LCH 81 72 82 71 / 30 20 10 10
LFT 81 73 83 72 / 20 20 10 10
BPT 82 72 84 71 / 40 10 10 10

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ041>045-
052>055-073-074.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ215-216.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-
455-470-472-475.

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR GMZ455-475.

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-470-472.

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ430-432-435.

PUBLIC...23

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

656 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG CLOSED VORTEX SWINGING
FROM QC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TO THE WEST, CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY
PULLING EAST ACROSS THE TN VLY AND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW LOW LEVEL QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM SOUTHEAST NE, ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHERN NC....TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT.

NOTING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...INCLUDING SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER...ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL NC
COASTAL PLAIN. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE, SOME SHOWERS JUST STARTING TO SPILL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRE-FRONTAL WAA.

ONGOING SHRAS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY JUST AFTER DAYBREAK, LEAVING
SEVERAL SUBTLE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE EVENTUAL
ORIENTATION OF THOSE BOUNDARIES WILL EVENTUALLY DETERMINE LOCATION
OF GREATEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

FOR TODAY, WE`LL BE OFF TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY START ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KY/NC WILL LIFT NORTH SLIGHTLY, WITH
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR AREA GETTING WARM SECTORED. 00Z/9
PROBABILISTIC MODELS AND CAMS, INCLUDING THE LAST FEW ITERATIONS
OF THE HIGH-RES HRRR AND SPC WRF ALL INDICATE STRONG SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
ACCORDINGLY, HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FAR NRN TIER.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO
EXACT LOCATION OF AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. HIGHS
70-75 WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S SOUTH
WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. WAA AT
H85 AHEAD OF IT RESULTS IN CHC SHOWERS MOST AREAS. LOWS IN THE
L-M50S NORTH...U50S-L60S SOUTH.

FRONT PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION TUES THROUGH WED. GIVEN
A NW FLOW AND MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...KEPT CHC POPS IN FCST
EACH DAY. SEVERAL WAVES ALONG THE BNDRY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
TIME PCPN. MAINTAINING CHC POPS EACH PERIOD WITH DIURNAL THUNDER
CHCS. AGAIN...HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON BNDRY LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
SUN. DID DROP TEMPS 1-2 CATEGORIES ACROSS THE FAR NE (MD EASTERN
SHORE) WITH COOL SECTOR NE FLOW APPEARING LKLY TO SET UP FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S FAR NE...70-75 ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ZONES...U70S- L80S IN AREAS ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
THE SOUTH. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE N50S- L60S.

BOUNDARY WILL BISECT THE LOCAL AREA FROM NW TO SE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE IN THE DAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WED AFTN/EVE. GIVEN PROGGED LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY, HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC POP OVER THE NE COAST, WITH
A HIGH END CHC POP IN PLACE WELL INLAND TO I-95. MUCH TOO EARLY
TO GET INTO DETAILS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH SO MUCH SUBJECT TO
CHANGE, BUT WITH 0-6 BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KT AND W/BROAD SCALE
FORCING MECHANISM PRESENT, WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SEVERE
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY OVER THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS AGAIN VARIABLE
WITH EXACT BOUNDARY LOCATION...BUT WILL RANGE FROM 70S TO L80S
FAR SW TO U60S/L70S FAR NE ZONES.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR PCPN AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY WILL STILL BE IN THE
VICINITY WED NGT/THU...LEADING TO A 30-50% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS.
HI TEMPS THU WILL RANGE FM THE MID 70S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO
THE LO 80S SRN AREAS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE W THU
NGT...AND CROSSES THE AREA BY FRI. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
(50% POPS) WITH THIS FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S FRI. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
LEADING TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH HI TEMPS STILL MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NC. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 10K FT AGL. WINDS CALM TO LIGHT
OUT OF THE S-SE. THE FRONT LIFTS NWD NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...BECOMING BKN-LOCALLY OVC 8-12K FT AGL.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MID/LATE MORNING
KSBY...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT...BUT
DIRECTIONS VARY FROM S-SE TO NE DEPENDING ON THE FRONTAL
PLACEMENT.

THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION THRU
MID WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS EACH DAY. LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. THE RESULT IS LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS
2-3 FT. A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NC SLOWLY DRIFTS NWD OVER
THE WATERS TODAY...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY BTWN NELY AND
SWLY...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. WAVES 1-2 FT AND
SEAS2-3 FT. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT FRI...WITH SLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS. A COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

427 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR PCPN AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY WILL STILL BE IN THE
VICINITY WED NGT/THU...LEADING TO A 30-50% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS.
HI TEMPS THU WILL RANGE FM THE MID 70S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO
THE LO 80S SRN AREAS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE W THU
NGT...AND CROSSES THE AREA BY FRI. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
(50% POPS) WITH THIS FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S FRI. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
LEADING TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH HI TEMPS STILL MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NC. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 12K FT AGL. WINDS CALM
TO LIGHT OUT OF THE S-SW.

FOR TODAY...THE FRONT LIFTS NWD NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST...BECOMING BKN-LOCALLY OVC 8-12K FT AGL. WINDS
REMAIN AOB 10 KT...BUT DIRECTIONS BECOME VARIABLE DUE TO THE WEAK
BOUNDARY.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

411 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LATEST UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG CLOSED VORTEX SWINGING
FROM QC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TO THE WEST, CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY
PULLING EAST ACROSS THE TN VLY AND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW LOW LEVEL QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM SOUTHEAST NE, ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHERN NC....TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. WAA AT
H85 AHEAD OF IT RESULTS IN CHC SHOWERS MOST AREAS. LOWS IN THE
L-M50S NORTH...U50S-L60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR PCPN AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY WILL STILL BE IN THE
VICINITY WED NGT/THU...LEADING TO A 30-50% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS. HI
TEMPS THU WILL RANGE FM THE MID 70S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE LO
80S SRN AREAS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE W THU NGT...AND
CROSSES THE AREA BY FRI. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN (50% POPS)
WITH THIS FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S FRI. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH HI TEMPS STILL MAINLY IN THE 70S.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

743 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

12Z RAOBS AND LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A BLOCKY UPR
AIR PATTERN OVER NAMERICA. A BLDG UPR RDG EXTENDS FM NW ONTARIO INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS AND IS SITUATED BTWN A CLOSED LO OVER THE CNDN
MARITIMES AND ANOTHER CLOSED LO OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. ANOTHER SHRTWV
IS SLIDING ENE THRU THE MID/UPR MS RIVER VALLEY BUT IS WEAKENING
WITH TIME AS IT LIFTS INTO THE EXPANDING UPR RDG. BUT THERE IS A
GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER RELATED TO A VERY
MOIST 12Z GRB SDNG /PWAT 1.12 INCH/. BUT VERY DRY AIR NOTED JUST TO
THE NE ON THE 12Z APX RAOB /PWAT 0.16 INCH/ IS PROVIDING A SHARP NRN
EDGE TO THE CLD COVER AND THE PCPN EXPANSION. UNDER SHARP PRES
GRADIENT BTWN SFC HUDSON BAY HI PRES AND WEAKENING SFC LO PRES TROF
APRCHG FM THE SW...GUSTY SE WINDS HAVE REACHED 30 MPH AT SOME
PLACES...ACCENTUATING FIRE WX DANGER AS SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL
INTO THE 60S AND RH HAS DROPPED AOB 20 PCT AWAY FM THE CLOUDY AREAS
WITH DAYTIME MIXING.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT INTO WED FOCUS ON CLD TRENDS/POPS AND TEMPS.
FORTUNATELY...WED WL FEATURE MOISTER LLVL AIR/WEAKER WINDS...SO FIRE
WX CONCERNS WL BE REDUCED.

TNGT...APRCHG SHRTWV TO THE SW IS FCST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...ALONG
WITH ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR FORCING. DEEPER RH IS FCST TO INCRS SLOWLY
OVER MAINLY THE SW PORTION OF UPR MI. BUT WITH MINIMAL DEEP LYR
FORCING AND LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR...EXPECT NO MORE THAN SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS IN SOME PLACES NEAR THE WI BORDER/WRN LK SUP. THE
NE PORTION OF UPR MI WL BE CLOSER TO THE HUDSON BAY HI PRES/SLOWLY
RETREATING DRY AIRMASS AND REMAIN MOCLR. MIN TEMPS WL BE LOWEST IN
THIS AREA...FALLING INTO THE 30S EVEN THOUGH A STEADY ESE WIND WL
PERSIST UNDER THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE HUDSON BAY HI AND LOWER MSLP
TO THE SW.

WED...ALTHOUGH THE SHRTWV TO THE SW WL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT...
DEEPER MSTR IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD ALL OF UPR MI AS THE
LO TO MID LVL FLOW SLOWLY VEERS TOWARD THE S. SOME OF THE MODELS
GENERATE SOME LIGHT PCPN OVER MAINLY THE W AND CENTRAL WHERE SFC
DEWPTS WL BE RISING. BUT WITH LIMITED LARGER SCALE FORCING...OPTED
TO MAINTAIN PREVIOUS DRY FCST. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE A BIT LOWER ON
WED WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLD COVER. THE LLVL DRY AIR WL BE MOST
RESILIENT OVER THE E...WHERE THE MIN RH WL AT LEAST APRCH 30 PCT IN
THE AFTN. SINCE WINDS WL BE LIGHTER AND GUST NO MORE THAN 15 TO 20
MPH...WL ISSUE NO NEW FIRE WX STATEMENTS ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH PERIODS OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
CWA WILL BREAK DOWN WHILE SHIFTING EAST AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS. VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL DURING THE EVENING...BUT RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS
WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THIS PRECIP AT GROUND LEVEL. A
POCKET OF HIGHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE MID-MS VALLEY ON WED WILL SPREAD NNE DURING THE NIGHT. AS IS
GENERALLY THE CASE WITH REMNANT CONVECTIVE PRECIP...GUIDANCE IS
STRUGGLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. SHOWERS THEN DIMINISH FROM
THE SW AS DRIER AIR WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT...USHERING
IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE WEST WIND UPSLOPE
AREAS. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL ON FRI...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE. WESTERLY WINDS ALSO LOOK TO BECOME
QUITE GUSTY DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 30MPH ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE WEST HALF...AS THE SFC LOW SLOWS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DRIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SEND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
REGION...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DECENT CLOUD COVER TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK INVERSION COMBINED WITH H8
TEMPS APPROACHING -10C WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS QUITE LOW...WITH
WIDESPREAD 40S EXPECTED...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 30S EAST HALF ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR. WET BULBS ZERO LEVELS SUPPORT MOSTLY MOSTLY SNOW
OUTSIDE OF THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DIRUNAL HEATING ASSISTANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGHING AND LOW-LEVEL
COLD CORE WILL SHIFT EAST. HOWEVER...A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES ON
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE HIGH AND MID LEVELS DOWN
TOWARD THE LOWER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN CLOUD BASES SLOWLY LOWERING
DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. WHILE CIGS MAY FALL JUST ENOUGH TO REACH
MVFR FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AT KIWD...DON`T EXPECT A PREVAILING
MVFR CIG TO DEVELOP AT KIWD UNTIL LATE WED MORNING OR AFTN. AT
KCMX/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

EXPECT E TO NE WINDS UP TO 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN LAKE WHERE TERRAIN
INFLUENCES FUNNEL AND ACCENTUATE THIS FLOW...THRU WED BETWEEN SLOWLY
DEPARTING HI PRES IN QUEBEC AND LO PRES APPROACHING FROM THE SW. AS
THIS LO LIFTS INTO ONTARIO ON THU...EXPECT A WSHFT TO THE W AND
THEN THE NW WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT. AS A RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND...THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ001>015-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

534 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER NAMERICA WITH UPR RDG STRETCHING FM MANITOBA INTO THE
WRN GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO OVER SE CANADA...AN UPR TROF OVER
WRN CANADA/THE PAC NW AND ANOTHER SRN BRANCH CLOSED LO LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD THRU THE PLAINS. SFC HI PRES RDG EXTENDS FM HUDSON BAY
INTO ERN UPR MI. EXCEPT FOR SOME HI CLDS MAINLY NEAR THE WI
BORDER...SKIES ARE SUNNY WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB
AND ESPECIALLY THE APX RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS ONLY 0.18 INCH.
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 60S/NEAR 70 AWAY FM THE MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LKS ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE H85
TEMPS ARE APRCHG 7C...AND MIN RH HAS FALLEN AS LO AS 20-25 PCT WITH
DIURNAL MIXING. LOOKING TO THE SW...THICKER CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
PLAINS SRN BRANCH SHRTWV ARE ADVANCING SLOWLY NEWD THRU MN/WI.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS MAINLY ON FIRE WX ISSUES
AND NEED FOR FIRE WX HEADLINES ON TUE.

TNGT...ALTHOUGH AXIS OF VERY DRY AIR IS FCST TO PERSIST OVER THE CWA
AND MAINTAIN MOCLR SKIES...A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO
DOMINATE AS THE SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E. THE
STEADIER ESE FLOW WL HOLD LO TEMPS HIER THAN LAST NGT. EXPECT THE
LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE FAR ERN CWA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING HI
WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WL BE A BIT WEAKER. OVERALL...RH RECOVER
SHOULD BE POOR.

TUE...SRN BRANCH SHRTWV IS FCST TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NE BUT WEAKEN
AS IT RUNS INTO A PERSISTENT UPR RDG OVER NW ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH CLD
COVER IS LIKELY TO INCRS SW-NE...PREFER THE MODELS WHICH KEEP ANY
PCPN TO THE SW THRU 00Z WED GIVEN FCST PERSISTENCE OF LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY RETREATING SFC HI PRES/VERY DRY 12Z APX RAOB
THAT WL BE SOURCE AIRMASS. WITH SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BTWN FALLING
MSLP TO THE SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APRCHG ALBEIT WEAKENING SRN
BRANCH DISTURANCE AND THE HI TO THE ENE...H925 ESE WINDS ARE FCST TO
REACH 20-25 KTS...SUPPORTING SFC WINDS GUSTS 20-25 MPH...AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 30 MPH. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 6-8C
RANGE...MAX TEMPS WL AT LEAST APRCH 70 AWAY FM LK MODERATION. TENDED
TOWARD THE HI END OF GUIDANCE AWAY FM THE LK COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN
A DRIER SCENARIO WITH JUST MAINLY HI CLDS EXPECTED. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH THE FIRE WX CUSTOMERS AND CONSIDERING THE DRYNESS
OF SHORT TERM FUELS BEFORE GREENUP/POOR RH RECOVERY TNGT AS WELL AS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED HUDSON BAY HI WX PATTERN/TIME OF YEAR AND
DRYNESS OF SOURCE 12Z APX RAOB...OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR
15Z-24Z DESPITE CONCERNS OFFICIAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 534 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE BY MID-LATE THIS WEEK
AS A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA WITH BUILDING 5H
RIDGE HEIGHTS INTO NW CANADA/SE ALASKA INDUCING AN AMPLIFIED AND
PERSISTENT TROUGH DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NE CONUS...INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIDGING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK OVER UPPER MI BUT THEN AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A
BROAD...AMPLIFIED TROUGH TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION TEMPS WILL FALL
WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
WILL BRING NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU. AFTER THAT...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH BASE OF
THE BROAD TROUGH WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH SCT PCPN ACROSS
UPPER MI THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS
AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND.

BEGINNING TUE NIGHT AND WED...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY E-SE
FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER WRN QUEBEC SHOULD MAINTAIN MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH COULD MAYBE
BRING A FEW SPRINKLES INTO THE FAR SCNTRL CWA BUT NOTHING MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WL BE WARRANTED.

RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE WRN LAKES BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES E WED NIGHT AS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL
CANADA. A SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE FM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. IT IS THAT WAVE ALONG WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SFC TO H85 CONVERGENCE
ALONG INITIAL COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT WL BRING A BROKEN BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. MODELS INCLUDING SREF
INDICATE BULK OF SFC AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING WELL SOUTH
OF CWA SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TSRA WITH THE SHRA. SINCE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE/PVA STAYS WELL TO NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
SECONDARY WAVE LIFTS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...SHOWERS
WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH FARTHER EAST AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS ACROSS
CWA. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DEPICT TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BE WELL UNDER A QUARTER INCH
FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE FAR WEST ALONG TRACK OF SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE. SO IN SHORT...NOT MUCH RELIEF IS EXPECTED FROM RECENT DRY
STRETCH.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT WILL PUSH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR FROM CENTRAL CANADA BEGINNING FRI. COLD AIR LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH MODELS INDICATING
COLDEST 8H TEMPS OF -8 TO POSSIBLY -10C OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SAT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF SCT SHOWERS TO THE CWA WHICH PERHAPS COULD BECOME
NUMEROUS AT TIMES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...AS TEMPS SHOULD GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. COLD TEMPS WILL ALSO LIKELY SUPPORT
SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND IN
EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION. MODEL RESOLUTION/TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BROAD/AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE POORLY HANDLED
LATE WEEK/WEEKEND TIME FRAME SO NO MORE THAN CHC POPS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON SUNDAY...SO IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES LATER FCSTS MAY NEED TO BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY
AT SOME POINT FOR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND
TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM
THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS
TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. WEAKENING GRAD WITH
HIGH PRES RIDGEBUILDING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW NW WINDS
TO SUBSIDESOME ON SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR MIZ001>015-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

341 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS MAINLY ON FIRE WX ISSUES
AND NEED FOR FIRE WX HEADLINES ON TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CONCERN AT LEAST INITIALLY THIS WEEK. UPPER
RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUE FORECAST TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AS INITIAL UPPER
TROUGH TRIES TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE MAINLY BLO H7 SLOWLY EDGES IN FM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUE BUT
CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO A FEW SPRINKLES/VIRGA OR
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER. KEPT MAX TEMPS
ONLY TO AROUND 60 WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LATE RAIN. HOWEVER...
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST AND WITH H85
TEMPS UP A GOOD 2-4C OVER THOSE TODAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
LOW 70S INTERIOR WEST AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE AWAY FM LK
MICHIGAN. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE WHERE
TEMPS ARE WARMEST. E-SE WINDS LOOK STRONGER AS WELL /10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AS SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO HIGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS...BUT A WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE INTO RIDGE ALONG WITH SURGE OF H9-H7 MOISTURE
AND HIGHER SFC DWPNTS COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER
MORE OF THE CWA ON TUE NIGHT. CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT AT BEST
THOUGH.

RIDGE ALOFT SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON WED AS
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL
CANADA. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE FM THE SOUTHWEST ON WED
NIGHT. IT IS THAT WAVE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND SFC TO
H85 CONVERGENCE ALONG INITIAL WEAKER COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT BRINGS
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. SFC AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF CWA SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TSRA
WITH THE SHRA. SINCE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/PVA STAYS WELL TO NORTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SECONDARY WAVE LIFTS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH FARTHER EAST
ACROSS CWA. TOTAL RAINFALL PROBABLY WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER A QUARTER
INCH EXCEPT FOR FAR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
AND EVEN THERE GFS IS FARTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH.
SHOWERS OVER EAST HALF COULD GET A BOOST AS THAT AREA IS ON NOSE OF
H3 JET AND LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE
INSTABILITY THOUGH FOR THIS TO BE MAJOR FACTOR AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM
WILL BE RUNNING INTO HIGHER HEIGHTS/DRY AIR. JUST NOT LOOKING LIKE A
LOT OF RAIN WHICH REALLY WOULD BE WELCOME GIVEN THE DRY PATTERN UPR
MICHIGAN IS IN CURRENTLY.

ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO LEADING TROUGH AND RESULTS IN PERSISTENT
TROUGHING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL BE SHORTWAVES DROPPING
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN AND EVEN FARTHER SW ACROSS
WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NO TELLING WHAT
ACTUAL TRACK OF STRONGER WAVES WILL BE THOUGH. STILL APPEARS CHILLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -6C TO -8C FRI
EVENING AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -10C BY SAT MORNING BEFORE MODERATING
TO AROUND -4C BY LATER SUN. THE COOL H85 TEMPS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES BLO 1290DAM SUPPORT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR MAYBE
JUST SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS SFC TEMPS FALL TO AROUND FREEZING LATER
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. WATER TEMPS ON LK SUPERIOR ARE 3C
OPEN WATERS TO NEAR 5C NEARSHORE...SO COULD EVEN BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVES IN VCNTY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMULATION. GFS SHOWS STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND GIVEN THE BROAD DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT CANNOT RULE IT OUT. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND
TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM
THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS
TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS ON THU INTO FRI
WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR MIZ001>015-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

203 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WL NOT MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA...COORDINATED WITH
THE MI DNR TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR THE W HALF OF UPR MI
TO HIGHLIGHT A MORE ELEVATED FIRE WX POTENTIAL IN THAT AREA DUE TO
SHARPER PRES GRADIENT THAT WL SUPPORT SE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ON
THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES RDG AXIS OVER ERN UPR MI. WITH MIN RH
EXPECTED TO DIP AS LO AS ABOUT 20 PCT BEFORE GREENUP AND MAX TEMPS
AT LEAST APRCH 70...CONDITIONS IN THAT AREA WOULD ALLOW WILDFIRES TO
SPREAD. THE 12Z APX RAOB SHOWS A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE THAT WL ALSO
ALLOW MIN RH OVER THE E HALF OF UPR MI TO DROP TOWARD 20 PCT...BUT
WEAKER PRES GRADIENT THERE WL NOT ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS MUCH MORE
THAN 10-12 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO MANITOBA AND A TROUGH OVER QUEBEC RESULTING IN CONFLUENT
NW MID/UPPER LEVEL THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO LOWER MI.
WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...IR LOOP SHOWED CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS UPPER MI.

TODAY...EXPECT THAT AS THE SFC RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...E TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST UPPER MI.
THE SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE 3C TO 7C RANGE...TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S INTERIOR WEST AND TO AROUND 60 OVER THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL PREVAIL DOWNWIND OF ERLY FLOW OFF
THE GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS...DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 20 TO 25
PERCENT...ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS ARE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...DESPITE THE DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BOUNDARY
LAYER SE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING
TO KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF BELOW THE UPPER 30S. LOW TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WILL ARE EXPECTED NEAR IWD AND ONTONAGON
WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND
TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM
THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS
TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS ON THU INTO FRI
WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1031 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND
TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM
THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS
TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS ON THU INTO FRI
WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

736 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND
TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM
THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS
TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS ON THU INTO FRI
WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

501 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND
TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM
THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS
TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS ON THU INTO FRI
WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

407 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CONFLUENT NW
FLOW ALF OVER THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO NEAR HUDSON BAY
AND AN UPR RDG EXTENDING FM THE NRN PLAINS THRU CENTRAL CANADA.
UNDER THIS CONFLUENT FLOW ALF...SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER FAR NW
ONTARIO IS EXTENDING A RDG AXIS TOWARD UPR MI. LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON
THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS UNDER THIS RDG AXIS IS RESULTING IN DRY WX
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DIURNAL CU. BUT INCOMING AIRMASS IS
QUITE DRY PER 12Z YPL RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS 0.22 INCH.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS WITH DRY HI PRES
FCST TO DOMINATE. WITH PERSISTENT DRYNESS BEFORE GREENUP...FIRE WX
ISSUES WL BE A CONCERN ON MON AFTN.

TNGT...EXPECT MOCLR SKIES WITH DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING...A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR A CHILLY OVERNGT. THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR OVER
THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA CLOSER TO WHERE THE HI PRES RDG IS FCST TO
BUILD AND BRING THE LIGHTEST WINDS. WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS IN THIS AREA. A LIGHT SE WIND OVER THE FAR W
UNDER A BIT SHARPER PRES GRADIENT ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE RDG AXIS
MAY LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP DROP THERE.

MON...HI PRES RDG AXIS WL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE ERN CWA. H85
TEMPS ARE FCST TO REBOUND TO BTWN ABOUT 4C OVER THE E TO NEAR 7C
OVER THE W...WHERE A STEADY SE FLOW IS FCST TO DOWNSLOPE. MAX TEMPS
IN THIS AREA WL AT LEAST APRCH 70. STEADIER SE WINDS IN THIS AREA WL
ALSO ACCENTUATE FIRE WX CONCERNS AS DAYTIME MIXING ALLOWS MIN RH TO
DIP TOWARD 20 TO 25 PCT. FORTUNATELY...THIS AREA WHERE THE SE WINDS
WL BE STRONGEST PICKED UP A BIT MORE RA ON FRI NGT. WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND E SHOULD BE LIGHTER AND LIMIT WILD FIRE POTENTIAL IN
THOSE AREAS DESPITE MORE RECENT DRYNESS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS THRU TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES
BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL BECOME ENE UP 15 TO 25 KTS ON MON
AFTERNOON/NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES GRADIENT ON
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HI PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND TERRAIN
INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE
HI SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LO PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SW...THE
FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LO SHIFTS TO THE NE AND
INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS ON THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT TO
THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

127 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS WITH DRY HI PRES
FCST TO DOMINATE. WITH PERSISTENT DRYNESS BEFORE GREENUP...FIRE WX
ISSUES WL BE A CONCERN ON MON AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BRINGING A
WARMER AIRMASS INTO WED AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE W. HIGHS
TUE IN THE 60S AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORES INCREASE TO MID 60S
TO MID 70S ON WED. THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE TURNING COOLER AS
THAT UPPER LOW MOVES IN...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S SAT.

LOW RH VALUES WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
E...DOWN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT INTERIOR W...TUE AFTERNOON AS WINDS
GUST TO 20-25MPH. RH IMPROVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AREA SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP SW OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE WED. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING SOME PRECIP BRUSHING THE WI BORDER MON NIGHT INTO WED...BUT
JUST HOW FAR THE SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT INTO THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
WILL BE TRICKY. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW END AND CONFINED TO NEAR
THE WI BORDER THROUGH LATE WED. WED NIGHT AND THU LOOK TO SEE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SFC COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. ALTHOUGH THE GFS ONLY
HAVE SOME AREAS SEEING A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF...THE ECMWF HAS ALL
AREAS WITH AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH. FRI INTO SUN COULD HAVE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR INSIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIP AS
850MB TEMPS DROP TO OR BELOW -7C. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONG W WINDS OVER THE KEWEENAW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI...SO WILL BE
MONITORING THAT TOO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016

WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

915 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.UPDATE...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS BROAD RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
REGION. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...IT WILL ALSO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO SOME UPPER 60S...FEELING A LITTLE LIKE
EARLY SUMMER. GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY UPDATES WERE
TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS. /28/

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE PREVAILING AT TAF SITES ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT BUT AREAS
OF LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN. SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 3-8 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. /28/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING THE
GENERAL THEME. AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WE ARE STILL WAITING TO
SEE ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA PER MORNING DISCUSSION...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HRRR GUIDANCE MAY
END UP BEING OVERDONE. AFTER ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING...EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL RAIN CHANCES
RETURN THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMAL IN THIS WARM PATTERN AND HIGHS COULD APPROACH 90 F
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN A FEW LOCATIONS. /EC/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
HELP SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR CWA. WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
INCREASE PWATS FROM AN INCH AND A QUARTER TO OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BY THURSDAY EVENING. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
GET AN EARLY START AND SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE NOON.
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY
EVENING AND NOT PUSHING SOUTH OF OUR CWA UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS SLOWER THAN LAST NIGHT`S MODEL RUN SUGGESTED. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO OUR CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT KNOCKING
PWATS BELOW A HALF INCH BY FRIDAY EVENING. A >1020MB HIGH WILL
REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HELPS DROP ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
REMAINING WEST OF OUR CWA...LACK OF ANY RETURN FLOW WILL LIMIT DEEP
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT WILL GET BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS
STALLS THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT NORTH OF OUR CWA. EITHER WAY...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS RAIN BACK
OVER OUR CWA MONDAY FASTER THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH MODELS SUGGEST OUR
FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MONDAY
THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY NIGHT. /22/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 67 88 66 86 / 6 4 9 23
MERIDIAN 65 88 64 85 / 6 5 4 22
VICKSBURG 67 88 66 86 / 6 5 10 25
HATTIESBURG 66 89 66 88 / 5 10 6 20
NATCHEZ 67 87 67 85 / 4 9 7 21
GREENVILLE 68 88 68 82 / 6 7 14 45
GREENWOOD 67 88 66 84 / 6 4 10 47

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
954 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016

The few showers across parts of southeast MO have dissipated late
this evening with a clear sky across almost the entire forecast area
along with light surface winds. Could not rule out some patchy fog
late tonight due to the clear sky, light wind, and high surface
dew points. Some of the latest models still depict some convection
developing towards morning across mainly southeast MO along a
weak, subtle warm front. It appears that convection over the
Plains will not make it into the western portion of our forecast
area before 12Z Wednesday. Lows will be about 5 to 10 degrees
above normal tonight, similar to last nights lows due to the high
surface dew points.

GKS

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016

A few isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible late this afternoon, but
any pcpn should diminish after sunset. Quiet wx is expected for
most of the evening hours compliments of shortwave ridging aloft.
Convection is expected to develop farther west later tonight
(especially after 06z) due to a strengthening LLJ impinging upon
a boundary. This activity may reach the western CWA before 12z.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016

Active weather is expected on Wednesday, starting with a round of
SHRA/TSRA during the morning hours which will have formed out
west overnight and then moved into the CWA. There is some
question regarding how far east the morning pcpn will reach
before dissipating.

Assuming that the morning convection does not leave too much
debris cloudiness over the region, temperatures should soar into
the mid to upper 80s on Wed aftn ahead of an approaching cold
front. Depending on cloud cover trends, a few locations in east
central MO and southwest IL may even flirt with 90 degrees. If any
locations do reach 90 degrees tomorrow, climate records indicate
that this would be earlier than average. The mean date of the
first 90 degree day of the calendar year is roughly May 21st for
St. Louis MO, around May 31st for Columbia MO, and near June 6th
for Quincy IL.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop Wed aftn/eve
invof the aforementioned cold front. Models continue to forecast
very high values of CAPE and favorable H7-H5 lapse rates of
6.5-7.5 deg C/km (some models depict even higher values) on Wed
aftn/eve ahead of the front. Although shear values are rather
low /perhaps 20-30 kts at best/ this does not preclude strong to
severe thunderstorms. The high instability on Wed may very well
compensate for the lower shear values, and storms which dvlp could
pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail during the
aftn/eve hours. The most likely scenario attm is that an MCS
develops farther west and moves into the CWA during the aftn/eve.

Pcpn will end with the passage of the cdfnt. As the midnight
shift noted in their discussion, the models continue to show a
slower progression of the front, therefore low PoPs were retained
through early Thu aftn across the southeastern CWA.

A surface high builds into the region on Thu night and suppresses
the bdry to the south. Meanwhile, a pattern change aloft results
in northwest flow dvlpg on Fri and persisting through the weekend.
There is a chance of rain on Fri/Fri night associated with a
reinforcing cdfnt dropping southward and an upper level vort max.
There is also a chance of rain when the boundary begins to lift
back northward as a wmfnt late this weekend and early next week.
Temperatures will be cooler than average this weekend.

Kanofsky

.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016

Diurnal cumulus clouds should dissipate early this evening with
surface winds becoming light. There may be some light fog late
tonight/early Wednesday morning. Could not rule out weakening
showers/storms moving into COU Wednesday morning, but it appears
that the better chance of storms will occur Wednesday afternoon
and evening as the atmosphere destabilizes ahead of an approaching
cold front. For now will just include VCTS in the tafs Wednesday
afternoon with diurnal cumulus clouds developing again during the
late morning and afternoon. A strengthening sely surface wind can
be expected on Wednesday.

Specifics for KSTL: Diurnal cumulus clouds will dissipate early
this evening due to the loss of daytime heating. A light surface
wind can be expected tonight. There may be some light fog late
tonight/early Wednesday morning, although the NAM MOS guidance
looks overdone with its forecast of stratus and fog during this
time. Diurnal cumulus clouds will develop again late Wednesday
morning and afternoon with thunderstorms by late afternoon or
early evening. A strengthening sely surface wind can be expected
on Wednesday.

GKS

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
954 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016

GKS

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016

Kanofsky

.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016

GKS

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 257 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

A strong low level jet will develop tonight over Plains. Strong
moisture transport coupled with strong and focused isentropic ascent
should help thunderstorms develop over Kansas and Nebraska. This
area of storms will track to the east and should be moving into
northwestern Missouri around sunrise, give or take an hour or two.
It`s likely this area of storms will be weakening as it is moving
into the forecast area and continue to weaken through the late
morning hours. But there may be enough lift and elevated instability
to produce a few marginally severe storms as they are moving into
the area. However, the better chance for anything severe will be
during the afternoon and evening hours. Activity for this time will
be largely dependent on where the morning activity tracks and how
strong it remains later in the day. But for now, it looks like the
morning activity will weaken across northern Missouri and allow for
moderate to strong instability to develop by the afternoon. Forecast
soundings throughout the forecast area show potential for 3000 to
4000 J/kg of CAPE over mainly the eastern portions of the forecast
area. Shear looks marginal, at least earlier in the afternoon, but
should increase into the evening hours as stronger winds aloft,
associated with the upper shortwave, begin to impinge on the area.
Also, winds at the surface and low levels will be veering with time
through the afternoon as the cold front approaches. However, over
the northeastern portion of the forecast area, surface winds may be
backed to the southeast as they will be to the east/northeast of the
surface low. So overall, the best chances for severe storms, and
potentially a few supercells, will be over the northeastern sections
of the forecast area. Further southwest, where winds are more veered
and shear is generally weaker, more multicellular storms are likely.
The biggest hazards from these storms will be from large hail and
damaging winds. The system looks progressive enough that widespread
flood is unlikely, but with anomalously high precipitable water
values locally high amounts and/or rates are likely which would lead
to more of an isolated flash flood threat.

Moisture will be scoured out well to our south in the wake of this
front and as result, we should see some drying out on Thursday.
Another upper shortwave trough and associated front will move
through the area Friday. This should spread another chance for
showers and a few storms to the area. But overall, moisture looks
much more limited than Wednesday, limiting coverage and especially
amounts.

More showers and storms are expected next week with what looks like
a stalled frontal boundary in the region. A broad trough will slowly
move across the region in the first part of next week and provide
enough forcing to give us a good chance for showers and storms.

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail overnight. A line of thunderstorms are
forecast to move through the area tomorrow morning, but timing and
behavior of this potential line is still a bit uncertain...so have
kept the VCTS. Once the line has move through, a few rain showers can
be expected into the afternoon hours. Scattered thunderstorms may
redevelop tomorrow afternoon with winds becoming more northwesterly
behind the front.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...PMM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 257 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...PMM

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
624 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

...Update to Aviation Discussion for the 00Z TAFS...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016

Sky has cleared out across the western CWA with a scattered
cumulus field in the eastern Ozarks. The clearing is due to
subsidence in the wake of the upper level system which exited to
the east of the area this morning. The tranquil conditions appear
to be short-lived however and the unsettled pattern and resultant
convective precipitation chances will be the main focus of the
forecast.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016

For tonight, will see low pressure strengthen over the central
Plains with a warm front starting to lift north into the forecast
area. Along with that, a 30-40 kt low level jet will be impinging
on the western CWA. Should see elevated overnight convection
develop and may see some fog developing over southern MO as the
higher dewpoints move in south of the warm front. Hail would be
the main strong to severe weather risk tonight with any storms.

Instability will increase on Wednesday with highs in the 80s and
dewpoints climbing into the mid to upper 60s. Should see afternoon
CAPES in the 3000-4000 j/kg range over parts of western MO and
southeast KS. 0-6 shear does not look overly impressive with the
best shear staying off to the west of our CWA, however we will
have a hail and wind risk during the afternoon and nighttime hours
due to the instability and more favorable theta-e differences,
especially over western CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016

A cold front and upper level shortwave will push through on
Thursday with remnant showers and thunderstorms moving through,
mainly during the morning hours. Clearing should take place from
west to east during the afternoon as high pressure builds into the
region.

Northwest flow aloft will bring another shortwave and surface
front through the area late Friday into Friday night with the next
chance at thunderstorms.

The flow will become more westerly over the weekend with
additional chances of showers and thunderstorms by Saturday night
into early next week.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: An upper level ridge is
currently over the region early this evening, resulting in mostly
sunny skies and warm conditions. The ridge will continue to move
east across the region tonight and through the day on Wednesday as
a storm system moves into the plains.

Warmer and more moist air will advect into the area tonight into
Wednesday. A few thunderstorms are expected to develop due to lift
from the advection, but coverage will be limited and most
locations will likely remain dry tonight into Wednesday.
Therefore, did not have enough confidence to include any mention
of thunder in the TAFS due to the lack of expected coverage from
this activity. Better rain chances will occur with the system to
the west, but that will likely hold off to just after this TAF
period ends.

As moisture increases from the south some light fog may develop
across southern Missouri early Wednesday morning, but should not
last long.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise