Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/11/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
317 AM PDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER NW CA WILL BRING A WARMING TREND
INLAND AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AT THE COAST THROUGH MID
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW
FRIDAY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO NW CA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXISTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PAC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH
MID WEEK WHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERS AROUND 150W AND 40N.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OFFSHORE NW CA SHOULD SEE OFFSHORE FLOW AND
DECREASING MARINE STRATUS EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN SUNSHINE COASTAL MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO RISE
A BIT GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ON WED HOWEVER
SOME SEMBLENCE OF DAYTIME NW WINDS SHOULD KEEP THEM FROM FROM GETTING
TOO MUCH HIGHER. MEANWHILE INLAND AREAS SHOULD WARM TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
COAST THURSDAY...THEN GET PULLED NORTH EASTWARD INTO THE MAIN JET
STREAM FRIDAY. COASTAL STRATUS SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN WARM
THURSDAY...THEN SEE COOLING FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS
START TO DROP. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE COMING TOGETHER A BIT MORE FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ASHORE SATURDAY. THE GFS
PUSHES IT INLAND OVER WASHINGTON STATE. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF
DROPPED IT RIGHT ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA...BUT LATEST RUN FROM 12Z IS
MOVING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS. WILL MAINTAIN VERY LOW END CHANCE
POPS MAINLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
5-WAVE FROM THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. ST/JT
&&
.AVIATION...STRATUS HAS BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS TO MUCH
OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING INCLUDING HUMBOLDT BAY
AND THE RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CLOUDS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SHOULD ERODE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE MOST OF THE
MENDOCINO COAST MAY WAKE UP TO BLUE SKIES. LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL
HELP CLEAR OUT THE COAST NORTH OF THE CAPE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
THE HUMBOLDT BAY AREA TO BE THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT TODAY. THIS COULD
BE BY THE LATE MORNING HOWEVER STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS COULD STICK INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD AND GENERATES OFFSHORE
FLOW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. KML
&&
.MARINE...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND STEEP NORTHERLY SEAS THROUGH
MONDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS...WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TODAY. TIGHT NORTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST
TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. IN ADDITION, A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE COMBINED SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN THE TIGHT
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH MONDAY. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER WATERS. BY TUESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4 TO 5 FT STARTING
ON WEDNESDAY. THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH START OF THE WEEKEND. UTILIZE HRRR IN THE NEAR TERM THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION TO USING A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.
/RCL
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ475.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
726 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 724 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING
AND EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA. GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY...STORMS WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER THAN THE STORMS THAT WENT THROUGH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME PERIOD. /HODANISH
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
AN UPR TROF WL BE AFFECTING THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED. ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT WL DROP SOUTH INTO SERN CO
THIS EVENING...BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MSTR. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT AND UNTIL THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MSTR OVR THE SERN
PLAINS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE SOME WIDESPREAD STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER VSBYS AND MAYBE EVEN
SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE. AFTER ABOUT 09Z BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
PCPN ENDING ACRS THE FORECAST AREA...OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME DRIZZLE.
THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE MORNING HOURS
ON WED...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD PCPN COULD FORM IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS ALONG THE ERN MTNS. IN THE AFTERNOON...UPSLOPE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE PCPN ALONG THE ERN MTNS...THE PALMER DVD AND
PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SRN BORDER. THE NAM SHOWS LITTLE
PCPN OVR THE FAR ERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR ALL THE SERN PLAINS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE ERN MTNS COULD
SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND CONTDVD ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY ISOLD PCPN CHANCES. TEMPS ON WED WL BE
COOLER AND GENERALLY A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN OVER
COLORADO...SURFACE WINDS BACK TO WESTERLY. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN WITH WARM...MOSTLY DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S THURSDAY...WARMING
INTO THE MID 70S/LOWER 80S FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AS THIS CLOSED LOW MOVES SLOWLY
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN UT/NORTHERN CO AS AN OPEN WAVE. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND MOVES THROUGH UT/CO
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS
AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS OF COLORADO...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EACH
AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STARK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS TONIGHT THROUGH WED... ALTHOUGH
SOME SHOWERS OR TSTMS THIS EVENING COULD BRIEFLY BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS. SOME GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AT KALS. KCOS AND KPUB ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN THE VCNTY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU KCOS AND KPUB THIS EVENING...BRINGING NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WL LIKELY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS THAT MAY BRING MVFR OR IFR CIGS TO KCOS AND KPUB.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
253 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
...BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOMORROW...
CURRENTLY...PLEASANT SPRING DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE PLAINS. WINDS HAVE SWUNG AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL PUSH AND ARE GUSTING IN THE 20-30KT RANGE AT TIMES. CU FIELD
LOOKS PRETTY INACTIVE AS OF 2PM LOCAL TIME. A COUPLE STORMS...WITH
SOME SMALL HAIL...HAVE FORMED OVER THE EXTREME SE PLAINS...BUT
CURRENT ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NOT MUCH
DEVELOPMENT SEEN TO THE WEST. CURRENT SCT POPS OVER THE MTS MAY BE A
BIT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WITH STAY THE COURSE FOR NOW...WITH A COUPLE
HOURS OF HEATING LEFT THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW OVER THE MTS HAS LARGELY
ENDED PER WEB CAMS...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE
CONTDVD.
MAIN WX CONCERN WILL BE A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
MOVING INTO THE YELLOWSTONE AREA OF NW WY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO WRN CO LATE TONIGHT. LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS BRING A LINE
OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTS AND
ON TO THE PIKE PEAK REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. BASED ON
OTHER MODELS...EXTENT OF QPF MAY BE OVERDONE IN THE HRRR BUT THERE
ARE SOME SIGNS IN THE NAM THAT SHOW POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THROUGH
EARLY TUE MORNING. GFS IS DRY AND ARW/NMM ARE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN
THE HRRR. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN SCT POPS
FOR THE UPPER ARKANSAS AREA...AND ISOLD FOR THE PIKES PEAK AREA
THROUGH TUE MORNING. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST THESE AREAS IF
THE TRENDS FOR THIS DISTURBANCE CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.
TOMORROW...A BREAK IS EXPECTED AFTER THE MORNING CONVECTION BEFORE A
SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP DEVELOPS TUE AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE AND INCREASED UPSLOPE OVER THE SRN FRONT RANGE.
TEMPS ALOFT TOMORROW RISE A FEW DEGREES...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY PRECIP DEVELOPS AND HOW EXTENSIVE IT IS...THIS MAY LIMIT THE
HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE NRN
AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...OVER THE MTS AND N OF HGWY 50. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
TUE NIGHT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
WITH REGARDS TO PCPN OVR THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM SHOW SPOTTY
ISOLD TO SCT PCPN ACRS THE AREA IN THE EVENING HOURS...AND THEN FOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT HAS LITTLE OR NO PCPN . THE GFS SHOWS A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD PCPN IN THE EVENING...AND HAS A BLOB OF PERSISTENT PCPN
OVER PIKES PEAK...TELLER...FREMONT...WESTERN PUEBLO AND EL PASO
COUNTIES. IT APPEARS THAT THE DIFFERENCE IF THAT THE GFS HAS LOW TO
MID LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW THAT IS GENERATING THE PCPN...WHEREAS THE NAM
HAS NORTHERLY SFC WINDS AND SWRLY MID LEVEL WINDS. FOR NOW...WL KEEP
SCT PCPN CHANCES OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE
NIGHT.
ON WED AN UPR TROF AND A COUPLE DISTURBANCE MOVE ACRS THE STATE AND
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK FAIRLY GOOD FROM THE I-
25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW TO MID
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM GENERALLY KEEPS THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS DRY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE GFS SPREADS PCPN
ACRS THE PLAINS...BUT IN THE EVENING HOURS THE NAM ALSO SPREADS PCPN
ACRS THE PLAINS WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE AREA...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUM. AS THAT
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TOWARD THU MORNING...THE PCPN WL
GENERALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT SOME PCPN MAY LINGER INTO THU
MORNING OVR THE FAR SERN AREAS. WED WL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPS ACRS THE AREA BEING BELOW AVERAGE.
THU AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE WRN STATES AND THE FORECAST AREA
LOOKS DRY ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS. ON FRI A SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING
BY OVR NE AND KS...WL SEND A FRONT INTO SERN CO. FRI GENERALLY
LOOKS DRY BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS OVR THE MTN
AREAS. THE UPR RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY SAT NIGHT AS A NEW SYSTEM MOVES
FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...WITH MORE MSTR MOVING
ACRS THE AREA FOR SUN AND MON BRINGING A RETURN TO UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR PCPN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
SOME LOCALIZED GUSTY N WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO REAL AVN CONCERNS CURRENTLY. STORMS HAVE
MOVED OFF INTO THE PANHANDLES...AND NOTHING STRONG EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TS AFFECTING THE KCOS AND/OR KALS SITES LATER
TONIGHT...FROM AROUND 06-09Z...BUT WILL NOT MENTION EXPLICITLY IN
TAFS FOR NOW. A BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP FOR THE TAF SITES TUE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
235 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
COLORADO IS IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY WITH MAIN ELONGATED UPPER
TROF OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO SOUTH DAKOTA.
THERE IS WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES
INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THERE IS HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST
COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH FAVORED OROGRAPHIC FLOW
AND ALSO OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CYS RIDGE. COVERAGE WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED FURTHER EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY WITH A JET STREAK NOSING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WEAK UPWARD ASCENT ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COLORADO. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK
CONVERGENCE WITH FOCUS AREA ALONG PALMER DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FOCUSES HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA AND LESSER
AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS WYOMING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE LIFT ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK SUBSIDENCE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE...UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE AROUND DURING THE DAY TO CONTINUE LOW POPS IN MOST AREAS.
UPPER RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR AND MOISTURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES TO BRING A RENEWED...ALBEIT NOT
TERRIBLY HIGH...THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
SURFACE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED LIGHT NORTHEAST OVER TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR CYS RIDGE AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. KDEN WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE EDGE OF THE SHOWERS BUT LATEST HRRR HAS DENVER ON EDGE OF THE
SHOWERS AFTER 22Z. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN A
BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH APPROACHING UPPER
DISTURBANCE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE
AIRPORTS TUESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1141 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
...SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TOMORROW...
CURRENTLY...WIDELY SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER
THE AREA...AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
H5 CENTER IS OVER ERN WY...BUT SRN EXTENT OF THE LOW EXTENDS SWRD
INTO NM...AND A COUPLE DISTURBANCES IN THIS BROADER CIRCULATION WILL
MOVE THROUGH SE CO THROUGH MONDAY. STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN PRETTY
WEAK...AND DEW POINTS NR THE KS BORDER HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND THE
4O DEGREE MARK...SO SVR THREAT ATTM LOOKS LIMITED. WILL STILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO OVER THE SERN PLAINS...BUT THE
PROBABILITY LOOKS PRETTY LOW.
THIS FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVE. THE HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE BEEN A
BIT TOO SPARSE WITH COVERAGE OVERALL...SO HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER
RES NAM RUNS FOR POP COVERAGE IN THE SHORT TERM. STILL DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH QPF OVERALL. NEXT WAVE OF ACTIVITY WILL COME
LATER TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE IMPACT FROM
THIS WAVE SHOULD BE MAINLY WEST OF I-25...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS. MTS COULD SEE ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH MON
MORNING...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN
HIGH...GENERALLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. KCPW AND THE SAN JUANS LOOK TO
BENEFIT THE MOST FROM SNOWFALL THROUGH TOMORROW.
TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE
PLAINS...WHILE THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS MAY STAY IN THE 30S-40S ONCE
AGAIN DUE TO WIDESPREAD MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PRECIP. STORM
COVERAGE E OF THE MTS NOT LOOKING TERRIBLY GREAT TOMORROW...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR TS MON AFTERNOON...SO WILL
LEAVE VERY LOW POPS...AROUND 10 PERCENT...OVER THE ERN PLAINS FOR
NOW. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
LATE MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE IT LOOK GENERALLY DRY ACRS THE
FORECAST AREA...AHEAD OF A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE
WEATHER LATER TUE. TUE AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WL BE TRACKING
FROM SERN MT INTO NWRN SD. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPR TROF THAT WL
MOVE INTO CO...WL BRING PCPN TO THE CONTDVD BY LATE TUE
MORNING...THEN SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN MTNS AS WELL TUE
AFTERNOON. TOWARD TUE EVENING SOME ISOLD TO SCT PCPN SHOULD ALSO
SPREAD EAST OVER THE SERN CO PLAINS. MOST LOCATIONS ON TUE SHOULD
SEE TEMPS THAT ARE AROUND AVERAGE.
TUE NIGHT A FRONT WL DROP S THRU THE SERN PLAINS AS THE UPR TROF
MOVES ACRS CO. IT MAY BE UNSETTLED ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO
LINGER ACRS THE CENTRAL AND ERN MTNS AND THE SERN PLAINS...HOWEVER
BY WED MORNING MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS DRY. WED AFTERNOON A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA AND COULD HELP TRIGGER
SOME ISOLD PCPN ACRS THE MTNS AND ERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ON WED WL
BE COOLER AND WL BE BELOW AVERAGE.
THU LOOKS LIKE A DRIER DAY ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ISOLD PCPN MAINLY OVR THE MTNS AREA. TEMPS WL BE WARMER ON
THU AND SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR
THE AREA FOR FRI...WITH TEMPS WARMING A LITTLE MORE. FOR SAT AND
SUN THE UPR RIDGE GETS FLATTENED OVR THE AREA WITH SOME MSTR IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING OVR THE AREA ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MSTR OVR EASTERN AREAS AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS. WL PROBABLY SEE ISOLD TO SCT PCPN ACRS THE MTN AND PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES...CAPABLE OF CREATING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
105 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL PUSH THIS
FRONT SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN, A COLD FRONT,
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE MID-MORNING UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES THIS MORNING DUE TO CURRENT READINGS. ALSO ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES OVER DELMARVA...ALTHO STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY
WILL BE COOLER THAN AREAS FARTHER NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD
OVERSPREAD MOST OF DELMARVA BY MID DAY. THE RAP AND HRRR STILL
SHOW THE PRECIP TENDING TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
LOWERED POPS A LITTLE BUT STILL KEEPING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR A
WHILE THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISSCUSSION BELOW...
A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO VIRGINIA TODAY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL SQUEEZED OUT ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA REGION. ANY QPF LOOKS TO BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH, IF
ANYTHING RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS HAVE TRENDED DRIER. AS A RESULT,
POPS AND QPF WERE TRIMMED BACK A TOUCH WITH THE 6:30 AM UPDATE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
DRIER AIR INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE END RESULT WILL BE
TOTALLY DIFFERENT DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. DELMARVA WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE MID 60`S. ON THE
OTHER HAND, REGIONS FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD SHOULD SEE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR QUICK RISES OF TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY BUST WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA. 925 MB MODELED TEMPERATURES
INDICATE THE NAM/ECMWF 2M TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE RESPECTIVE
MOS GUIDANCE SHOULD BE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO COOL WITH THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70`S.
SEVERAL FEATURES ON LOCAL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND
GUSTS TO REACH 20-25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. MIXING
WILL LIKELY LOWER RH VALUES FROM PHILADELPHIA AND POINTS TO THE
NORTH AS WELL, PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE WITH THE FEATURES IN OUR REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE. THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TOWARD SUNRISE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBILE TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY, THIS TIME ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAV/MET
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUE HAS TAKEN A BIT OF A TURN TWD THE MORE DREARY THIS CYCLE. A WM
FRONT, EXTENDING EWD FROM LOW PRES IN THE PLAINS, WILL BE OVER
THE AREA. PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE DURG THE AFTN HOURS. WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AN E TO NE FLOW, TEMPS ARE COOLER THAN
PREV FCSTS. WHILE NOT AS BAD AS A FEW DAYS LAST WEEK, TUE NOW
LOOKS TO NOT BE PLEASANT AT ALL.
HIGH PRES RE-EXERTS ITSELF IN ERN CANADA TUE NIGHT AND PUSHES THE
FRONT SWD AND DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EITHER TUE NIGHT OR WED THRU
THU. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT TIMING. THE GFS KEEPS
SOME LINGERING LIGHT QPF OVER SRN AREAS TUE EVE. THE ECMWF, KEEPS
ITS PRECIP FURTHER N EARLIER TUE EVE, THEN OVER THE S TUE NIGHT,
BUT IT IS A MORE ROBUST AREA. FOR NOW, WILL JUST HOLD SOME LOW
POPS.
LOW PRES THEN MOVES ACRS SRN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THU AND CROSS THE AREA
ON FRI. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFS HERE AS WELL. THE GFS HAS RAIN
IN THE WRN AREAS AS ERLY AS THU EVE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. THE ECMWF DOESN`T HAVE ANY RAIN BEFORE FIR MRNG
AND PSBLY EVEN FRI AFTN IN THE E. THE ECMWF IS OFTEN TOO SLOW WITH
CFP, SO HAVE SHADED IN THE GFS DIRECTION, BUT REGARDLESS, THERE
WILL BE SOME PRECIP ON FRI. THE FRONT MOVES THRU THE REGION AND
CLEARS THE COAST FRI EVE.
BOTH THE EC AND GFS THEN BRING SOME INSTABILITY SHWRS THRU ON SAT
BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN ON SUN.
AFTER A MUCH BELOW NRML TEMP DAY ON TUE, TEMPS WILL BE AOA NRML
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, THEY RETURN TO NR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NRML
BEHIND THE CDFNT OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A HIGH BROKEN
DECK WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AROUND 20,000 FEET AND GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 7,000 FEET LATE
TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY FOR KILG AND KMIV.
OUTLOOK...
TUE THRU THU...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHRA ACROSS TUE/TUE NIGHT CUD BRING
LWR CIGS. LOW CONFIDENCE
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA PSBL WITH CFP. LOWER
VSBYS/CIGS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA. MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
DECIDED TO CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF LITTLE EGG
INLET. THIS IS BASED ON OBSERVED WIND GUSTS ALONG THE NJ SHORE.
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE BEING REPORTED NORTH OF LITTLE EGG BUT ARE
MUCH LESS TO THE SOUTH. THE GUSTY WINDS ARE ORIGINATING OVER LAND
AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. BUOY 44065 ABOUT
15 NM OFFHORE HAS VERY LITTLE WIND AT ALL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. BOTH THE MODELED
925 MB WINDS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TOP WINDS OF AROUND 25
KNOTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. SINCE WIND GUSTS ARE NOT TO
EXCEED 25 KNOTS, CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN NORMAL FOR AN ADVISORY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME CONSULTATION WITH STATE PARTNERS INDICATES FUELS MAY STILL
BE TOO MOIST FOR ANY INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY.
RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP TO AROUND 30% IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY IN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE OUT OF
WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. COORDINATION IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING WITH
STATE PARTNERS ON A POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THAT HINGES ON THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-
451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...AMC/GAINES/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
953 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL PUSH THIS
FRONT SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN, A COLD FRONT,
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE MID-MORNING UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES THIS MORNING DUE TO CURRENT READINGS. ALSO ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES OVER DELMARVA...ALTHO STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY
WILL BE COOLER THAN AREAS FARTHER NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD
OVERSPREAD MOST OF DELMARVA BY MID DAY. THE RAP AND HRRR STILL
SHOW THE PRECIP TENDING TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
LOWERED POPS A LITTLE BUT STILL KEEPING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR A
WHILE THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISSCUSSION BELOW...
A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO VIRGINIA TODAY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL SQUEEZED OUT ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA REGION. ANY QPF LOOKS TO BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH, IF
ANYTHING RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS HAVE TRENDED DRIER. AS A RESULT,
POPS AND QPF WERE TRIMMED BACK A TOUCH WITH THE 6:30 AM UPDATE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
DRIER AIR INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE END RESULT WILL BE
TOTALLY DIFFERENT DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. DELMARVA WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE MID 60`S. ON THE
OTHER HAND, REGIONS FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD SHOULD SEE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR QUICK RISES OF TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY BUST WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA. 925 MB MODELED TEMPERATURES
INDICATE THE NAM/ECMWF 2M TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE RESPECTIVE
MOS GUIDANCE SHOULD BE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO COOL WITH THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70`S.
SEVERAL FEATURES ON LOCAL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND
GUSTS TO REACH 20-25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. MIXING
WILL LIKELY LOWER RH VALUES FROM PHILADELPHIA AND POINTS TO THE
NORTH AS WELL, PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE WITH THE FEATURES IN OUR REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE. THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TOWARD SUNRISE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBILE TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY, THIS TIME ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAV/MET
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUE HAS TAKEN A BIT OF A TURN TWD THE MORE DREARY THIS CYCLE. A WM
FRONT, EXTENDING EWD FROM LOW PRES IN THE PLAINS, WILL BE OVER
THE AREA. PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE DURG THE AFTN HOURS. WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AN E TO NE FLOW, TEMPS ARE COOLER THAN
PREV FCSTS. WHILE NOT AS BAD AS A FEW DAYS LAST WEEK, TUE NOW
LOOKS TO NOT BE PLEASANT AT ALL.
HIGH PRES RE-EXERTS ITSELF IN ERN CANADA TUE NIGHT AND PUSHES THE
FRONT SWD AND DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EITHER TUE NIGHT OR WED THRU
THU. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT TIMING. THE GFS KEEPS
SOME LINGERING LIGHT QPF OVER SRN AREAS TUE EVE. THE ECMWF, KEEPS
ITS PRECIP FURTHER N EARLIER TUE EVE, THEN OVER THE S TUE NIGHT,
BUT IT IS A MORE ROBUST AREA. FOR NOW, WILL JUST HOLD SOME LOW
POPS.
LOW PRES THEN MOVES ACRS SRN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THU AND CROSS THE AREA
ON FRI. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFS HERE AS WELL. THE GFS HAS RAIN
IN THE WRN AREAS AS ERLY AS THU EVE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. THE ECMWF DOESN`T HAVE ANY RAIN BEFORE FIR MRNG
AND PSBLY EVEN FRI AFTN IN THE E. THE ECMWF IS OFTEN TOO SLOW WITH
CFP, SO HAVE SHADED IN THE GFS DIRECTION, BUT REGARDLESS, THERE
WILL BE SOME PRECIP ON FRI. THE FRONT MOVES THRU THE REGION AND
CLEARS THE COAST FRI EVE.
BOTH THE EC AND GFS THEN BRING SOME INSTABILITY SHWRS THRU ON SAT
BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN ON SUN.
AFTER A MUCH BELOW NRML TEMP DAY ON TUE, TEMPS WILL BE AOA NRML
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, THEY RETURN TO NR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NRML
BEHIND THE CDFNT OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A HIGH BROKEN
DECK WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AROUND 20,000 FEET AND GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 7,000 FEET LATE
TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY FOR KILG AND KMIV.
OUTLOOK...
TUE THRU THU...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHRA ACROSS TUE/TUE NIGHT CUD BRING
LWR CIGS. LOW CONFIDENCE
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA PSBL WITH CFP. LOWER
VSBYS/CIGS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA. MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. BOTH THE MODELED 925 MB WINDS
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TOP WINDS OF AROUND 25 KNOTS ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. SINCE WIND GUSTS ARE NOT TO EXCEED 25 KNOTS,
CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN NORMAL FOR AN ADVISORY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME CONSULTATION WITH STATE PARTNERS INDICATES FUELS MAY STILL
BE TOO MOIST FOR ANY INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY.
RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP TO AROUND 30% IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY IN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE OUT OF
WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. COORDINATION IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING WITH
STATE PARTNERS ON A POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THAT HINGES ON THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>453.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...AMC/GAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
609 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL PUSH THIS
FRONT SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN, A COLD FRONT,
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME PATCHY FROST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN LOCALIZED SPOTS IN
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND INTERIOR OCEAN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
SEVERAL MESONET STATIONS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 30`S WITH LIGHT
WINDS. ANY WIDELY PATCHY FROST SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.
A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO VIRGINIA TODAY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL SQUEEZED OUT ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA REGION. ANY QPF LOOKS TO BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH, IF
ANYTHING RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS HAVE TRENDED DRIER. AS A RESULT,
POPS AND QPF WERE TRIMMED BACK A TOUCH WITH THE 6:30 AM UPDATE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
DRIER AIR INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE END RESULT WILL BE
TOTALLY DIFFERENT DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. DELMARVA WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE MID 60`S. ON THE
OTHER HAND, REGIONS FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD SHOULD SEE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR QUICK RISES OF TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY BUST WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA. 925 MB MODELED TEMPERATURES
INDICATE THE NAM/ECMWF 2M TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE RESPECTIVE
MOS GUIDANCE SHOULD BE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO COOL WITH THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70`S. SEVERAL FEATURES ON LOCAL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 20-25 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. MIXING WILL LIKELY LOWER RH VALUES
FROM PHILADELPHIA AND POINTS TO THE NORTH AS WELL, PLEASE SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE WITH THE FEATURES IN OUR REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE. THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TOWARD SUNRISE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBILE TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY, THIS TIME ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAV/MET
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUE HAS TAKEN A BIT OF A TURN TWD THE MORE DREARY THIS CYCLE. A WM
FRONT, EXTENDING EWD FROM LOW PRES IN THE PLAINS, WILL BE OVER
THE AREA. PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE DURG THE AFTN HOURS. WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AN E TO NE FLOW, TEMPS ARE COOLER THAN
PREV FCSTS. WHILE NOT AS BAD AS A FEW DAYS LAST WEEK, TUE NOW
LOOKS TO NOT BE PLEASANT AT ALL.
HIGH PRES RE-EXERTS ITSELF IN ERN CANADA TUE NIGHT AND PUSHES THE
FRONT SWD AND DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EITHER TUE NIGHT OR WED THRU
THU. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT TIMING. THE GFS KEEPS
SOME LINGERING LIGHT QPF OVER SRN AREAS TUE EVE. THE ECMWF, KEEPS
ITS PRECIP FURTHER N EARLIER TUE EVE, THEN OVER THE S TUE NIGHT,
BUT IT IS A MORE ROBUST AREA. FOR NOW, WILL JUST HOLD SOME LOW
POPS.
LOW PRES THEN MOVES ACRS SRN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THU AND CROSS THE AREA
ON FRI. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFS HERE AS WELL. THE GFS HAS RAIN
IN THE WRN AREAS AS ERLY AS THU EVE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. THE ECMWF DOESN`T HAVE ANY RAIN BEFORE FIR MRNG
AND PSBLY EVEN FRI AFTN IN THE E. THE ECMWF IS OFTEN TOO SLOW WITH
CFP, SO HAVE SHADED IN THE GFS DIRECTION, BUT REGARDLESS, THERE
WILL BE SOME PRECIP ON FRI. THE FRONT MOVES THRU THE REGION AND
CLEARS THE COAST FRI EVE.
BOTH THE EC AND GFS THEN BRING SOME INSTABILITY SHWRS THRU ON SAT
BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN ON SUN.
AFTER A MUCH BELOW NRML TEMP DAY ON TUE, TEMPS WILL BE AOA NRML
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, THEY RETURN TO NR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NRML
BEHIND THE CDFNT OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A HIGH BROKEN
DECK WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AROUND 20,000 FEET AND GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 7,000 FEET LATE
TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY FOR KILG AND KMIV.
OUTLOOK...
TUE THRU THU...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHRA ACROSS TUE/TUE NIGHT CUD BRING
LWR CIGS. LOW CONFIDENCE
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA PSBL WITH CFP. LOWER
VSBYS/CIGS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA. MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. BOTH THE MODELED 925 MB WINDS
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TOP WINDS OF AROUND 25 KNOTS ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. SINCE WIND GUSTS ARE NOT TO EXCEED 25 KNOTS,
CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN NORMAL FOR AN ADVISORY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP TO AROUND 30% IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY IN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WINDS WILL ALSO
BE OUT OF WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS FROM 20-25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. COORDINATION IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING
WITH STATE PARTNERS ON A POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THAT HINGES ON THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ450>453.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
851 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA UNDERNEATH A PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET. THE PLACEMENT OF
THE JET WILL KEEP PERIOD OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS/CS OVERSPREADING OUR
SKIES INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN STREAM HAS TAKEN ON A RATHER
ZONAL CONFIGURATION...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPULSES
APPROACHING...AND ALL SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY LOCKED
WELL TO OUR NORTH.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE
REGION...AND WILL REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
OVERALL...OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE WILL HOLD ONTO AT LEAST SOME OF THE MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVERHEAD FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE BEGINNING OF AN EROSION TO
THIS LAYER. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWER POP UP ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE
WITH THE SLIGHTLY LESS HOSTILE MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER...ANYTHING THAT
DOES FORM WILL BE REMOTE AND BRIEF. SHOWER COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
BE WELL BELOW 10%...AND HENCE HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AND NDFD GRIDS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE OVERNIGHT
SHIFT CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE NEW 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE AND
DETERMINE IF A LOW END POP MIGHT BE REQUIRED AFTER 19-20Z
WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION (11/00Z THROUGH 12/00Z)...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 71 87 71 88 / 0 10 10 30
FMY 69 89 70 89 / 10 10 20 20
GIF 68 87 68 90 / 10 10 10 30
SRQ 68 83 69 85 / 0 0 10 10
BKV 64 87 63 89 / 0 10 10 30
SPG 72 86 73 87 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH THE HRRR STILL TRIES TO BRING IN SOME LIGHT SHRA ACTIVITY
LATER TODAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN TOO LOW FOR
ANY MENTIONABLE PRECIP. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST AND
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE GRIDS AT THIS POINT.
DEESE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
.UPDATED DUE TO AVIATION FORECAST...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY BUT WITH THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING EAST...INCREASED CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA NOW
WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH
ACROSS MS/AL AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP TO MAINLY NORTH
GA TUESDAY. OR NOW ONLY LOOKING AT A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITIES ARE
FAIRLY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
01
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL KEEP A RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CWA...MAINLY NORTH GA...ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE IN
BRINGING A STRONG SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTH GA. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY ENDING
THE PRECIP FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY ACROSS THE
CWA. A ZONAL FLOW RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TO NORTH GA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
17
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN STORE FOR THIS CYCLE WITH A CONTINUED VFR
FORECAST. SHOULD SEE CONTINUED INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHRA MAINLY
OVER NW GEORGIA. CHANCES WERE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN ATL JUST
YET. SAME STORY FOR TUE AS MOST OF THE DEVELOPING SHRA REMAIN OVER
NW PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND NO MENTION IN ATL TAF. WINDS SHOULD
BRIEFLY SOME AROUND TO SSE THIS EVENING BEFORE GOING BACK TO THE
SW OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WINDSHIFT CHANCES AND TIMING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 84 61 83 63 / 0 5 10 10
ATLANTA 82 63 82 66 / 0 5 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 78 57 78 59 / 0 5 30 30
CARTERSVILLE 81 60 82 64 / 0 5 30 20
COLUMBUS 83 63 83 65 / 0 5 10 10
GAINESVILLE 81 62 81 64 / 0 5 20 20
MACON 85 62 85 63 / 0 0 5 10
ROME 80 59 82 64 / 0 10 30 20
PEACHTREE CITY 81 59 82 62 / 0 5 10 10
VIDALIA 88 65 85 66 / 0 5 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1001 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH THE HRRR STILL TRIES TO BRING IN SOME LIGHT SHRA ACTIVITY
LATER TODAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN TOO LOW FOR
ANY MENTIONABLE PRECIP. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST AND
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE GRIDS AT THIS POINT.
&&
DEESE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
..UPDATED DUE TO AVIATION FORECAST...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY BUT WITH THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING EAST...INCREASED CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA NOW
WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH
ACROSS MS/AL AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP TO MAINLY NORTH
GA TUESDAY. OR NOW ONLY LOOKING AT A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITIES ARE
FAIRLY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
01
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL KEEP A RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CWA...MAINLY NORTH GA...ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE IN
BRINGING A STRONG SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTH GA. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY ENDING
THE PRECIP FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY ACROSS THE
CWA. A ZONAL FLOW RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TO NORTH GA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
17
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FROM THE 06Z TAF SET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD BUT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE WEST STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
IN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY OUT OF THE W TO SW
AND MAINLY 10KT OR LESS. WILL SEE SOME GUST TO 15KT THIS
AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THIS TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO N GA TUESDAY
MORNING BUT THEY SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL KEEP
THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS
01
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 84 61 83 63 / 0 5 10 10
ATLANTA 82 63 82 66 / 0 5 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 78 57 78 59 / 0 5 30 30
CARTERSVILLE 81 60 82 64 / 0 5 30 20
COLUMBUS 83 63 83 65 / 0 5 10 10
GAINESVILLE 81 62 81 64 / 0 5 20 20
MACON 85 62 85 63 / 0 0 5 10
ROME 80 59 82 64 / 0 10 30 20
PEACHTREE CITY 81 59 82 62 / 0 5 10 10
VIDALIA 88 65 85 66 / 0 5 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
913 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
913 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
AREA OF SLOW MOVING OR NEARLY STATIONARY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN
IL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN LATE THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED WITH THESE LINGERING
SHOWERS...WHICH WERE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK
REMNANT MCV FEATURE LOCATED NORTH OF KVYS/PERU-LASALLE. EARLIER
SLOW-MOVING STORMS HAD PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER PORTIONS OF LASALLE AND GRUNDY COUNTIES...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF NEARLY 2 INCHES AND SOME REPORTS OF MINOR FLOODING.
WHILE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH...AN AERIAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM FOR
WESTERN/CENTRAL LASALLE COUNTY FOR RESIDUAL MINOR FLOODING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH OVER NORTHERN IL. MOIST AND RELATIVELY COOL ENVIRONMENT
NORTH OF A WEST-EAST STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE FOG DEVELOP
AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT. CURRENT WEB CAMS SHOW LIGHT FOG/LOW CEILINGS
DEVELOPING BACK INTO DOWNTOWN CHICAGO...AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND
INLAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL NEED FOR FOG HEADLINES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE.
HAVE UPDATED HOURLY POP/WX TRENDS BASED ON RECENT RADAR
TRENDS...AND ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS A BIT HIGHER IN OUR SOUTHERN TIER
OF CWA COUNTIES BASED ON FRONTAL POSITION WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE LOW-MID 60S. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
243 PM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE WARM FRONT LIES ALONG OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF I-80 WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE
LOW 70S SOUTH OF IT. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO PULL NORTH
WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. FINALLY SEEING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATES CAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A BIT LESS CAPE. SHEAR VALUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE VERY
LOW...BUT THINKING A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
GENERAL ROTATION ALOFT. ONLY EXPECTING ONE TO PERHAPS A FEW STORMS
TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. SO
FAR THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED TAME WITH LIMITED VERTICAL GROWTH.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
QUICKLY BECOMES STABLE WITH A DECENT SURFACE INVERSION. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES BAGGY WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS COMBINED WITH RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS FROM THE FRONT AND
RECENT RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG OVERNIGHT. NOT CERTAIN THAT WE
WILL SEE DENSE FOG...BUT AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY. TEMPS DROP INTO
50S THIS EVENING AND THEN HOLD STEADY OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY IS STILL LOOKING WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 SOUTH OF I-80.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 60S ALONG THE LAKE. CLOUD
COVER WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN HOW MUCH AREAS AWAY FROM THE
LAKE WILL WARM. IF ANY LOCATION GETS A BIT MORE SUNSHINE...COULD SEE
TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 80S. THE MAIN FORCING STAYS WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. A STOUT CAP WILL ALSO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
214 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY FRIDAY WHILE TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
ANTICIPATE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO BE DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING A STRONG CAP FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING OF THE LOW
PASSAGE AND THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE...THINK THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS GREATLY LIMITED AND WOULD ANTICIPATE ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE REGION TO BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE AS IT
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE...A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET OUT
AHEAD OF THE LOW TRACK WILL RESULT IN DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA AND AREAS NORTH...ALONG WITH BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT SWINGS AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SWITCH IN WINDS WILL HELP DRIVE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE LOW TO MID
70S THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
60S...AND ONLY MID/UPPER 50S FOR SATURDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
COULD CAUSE SOME LIGHT RAIN...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FOCUSED IN THE
MID LEVELS WITH DRY LOW LEVELS INDICATED IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE QPF. UPPER PATTERN IS
PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. EXPECT PRIMARILY DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH SOME LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES
COULD BRING A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NRN IL/IN HAS BECOME DISRUPTED BY
ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND IS RATHER ILL DEFINED.
HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR WITH COOL NELY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF NERN
IL/IN...THOUGH MDW CURRENTLY IS REPORTING SELY WINDS DUE TO
OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TERMINAL. CIGS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE TEMPORARILY IMPROVED ABOVE
IFR AT MANY LOCATIONS...BUT RFD REMAINS UNDER IFR CIGS AND SEVERAL
NON-TAF SITES LIKE PWK AND UGN HAVE BEEN SOCKED IN ALL AFTERNOON.
THE SITES THAT DID NOT IMPROVE ALSO WERE NOT INVOF THE THE
TSRA...WHICH REMAINED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE PCPN/TSRA IS SHRINKING IN
COVERAGE AND IS MORE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS
AND CLOSER TO THE SFC WARM FRONT. AS THE PCPN SETTLES
DOWN...EXPECT THAT CIGS WILL QUICKLY RETURN BACK TO IFR LEVELS
ARND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. WITH PERSISTENT COOL...NELY FLOW
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND LOW CIGS AND FOG NOTED
IN LAKEFRONT WEBCAMS...ANTICIPATE THAT THE CIG/VIS TREND WILL
LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIFR CIGS DURG THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR 200 FT CIGS WITH 1SM BR FOR
08-12Z...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS MAY NEED TO BE A
PREVAILING CONDITION WITH THE LIFR CIGS CONTINUING LATER THAN
12Z...PERHAPS LASTING UNTIL 14-16Z. WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SETTLE INTO ENELY-NELY WITH SPEEDS OF 7KT OR
LESS.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
214 PM CDT
A WARM FRONT LIES SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN. WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS POOLING NEAR THE FRONT
HAVE RESULTED IN FOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...THUS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUES FOR THE REST
OF TODAY THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST
BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD RIDGE STRENGTHENS
AND REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 10
AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
644 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...
243 PM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE WARM FRONT LIES ALONG OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF I-80 WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE
LOW 70S SOUTH OF IT. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO PULL NORTH
WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. FINALLY SEEING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATES CAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A BIT LESS CAPE. SHEAR VALUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE VERY
LOW...BUT THINKING A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
GENERAL ROTATION ALOFT. ONLY EXPECTING ONE TO PERHAPS A FEW STORMS
TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. SO
FAR THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED TAME WITH LIMITED VERTICAL GROWTH.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
QUICKLY BECOMES STABLE WITH A DECENT SURFACE INVERSION. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES BAGGY WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS COMBINED WITH RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS FROM THE FRONT AND
RECENT RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG OVERNIGHT. NOT CERTAIN THAT WE
WILL SEE DENSE FOG...BUT AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY. TEMPS DROP INTO
50S THIS EVENING AND THEN HOLD STEADY OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY IS STILL LOOKING WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 SOUTH OF I-80.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 60S ALONG THE LAKE. CLOUD
COVER WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN HOW MUCH AREAS AWAY FROM THE
LAKE WILL WARM. IF ANY LOCATION GETS A BIT MORE SUNSHINE...COULD SEE
TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 80S. THE MAIN FORCING STAYS WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. A STOUT CAP WILL ALSO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
214 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY FRIDAY WHILE TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
ANTICIPATE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO BE DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING A STRONG CAP FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING OF THE LOW
PASSAGE AND THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE...THINK THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS GREATLY LIMITED AND WOULD ANTICIPATE ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE REGION TO BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE AS IT
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE...A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET OUT
AHEAD OF THE LOW TRACK WILL RESULT IN DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA AND AREAS NORTH...ALONG WITH BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT SWINGS AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SWITCH IN WINDS WILL HELP DRIVE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE LOW TO MID
70S THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
60S...AND ONLY MID/UPPER 50S FOR SATURDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
COULD CAUSE SOME LIGHT RAIN...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FOCUSED IN THE
MID LEVELS WITH DRY LOW LEVELS INDICATED IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE QPF. UPPER PATTERN IS
PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. EXPECT PRIMARILY DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH SOME LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES
COULD BRING A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NRN IL/IN HAS BECOME DISRUPTED BY
ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND IS RATHER ILL DEFINED.
HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR WITH COOL NELY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF NERN
IL/IN...THOUGH MDW CURRENTLY IS REPORTING SELY WINDS DUE TO
OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TERMINAL. CIGS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE TEMPORARILY IMPROVED ABOVE
IFR AT MANY LOCATIONS...BUT RFD REMAINS UNDER IFR CIGS AND SEVERAL
NON-TAF SITES LIKE PWK AND UGN HAVE BEEN SOCKED IN ALL AFTERNOON.
THE SITES THAT DID NOT IMPROVE ALSO WERE NOT INVOF THE THE
TSRA...WHICH REMAINED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE PCPN/TSRA IS SHRINKING IN
COVERAGE AND IS MORE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS
AND CLOSER TO THE SFC WARM FRONT. AS THE PCPN SETTLES
DOWN...EXPECT THAT CIGS WILL QUICKLY RETURN BACK TO IFR LEVELS
ARND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. WITH PERSISTENT COOL...NELY FLOW
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND LOW CIGS AND FOG NOTED
IN LAKEFRONT WEBCAMS...ANTICIPATE THAT THE CIG/VIS TREND WILL
LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIFR CIGS DURG THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR 200 FT CIGS WITH 1SM BR FOR
08-12Z...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS MAY NEED TO BE A
PREVAILING CONDITION WITH THE LIFR CIGS CONTINUING LATER THAN
12Z...PERHAPS LASTING UNTIL 14-16Z. WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SETTLE INTO ENELY-NELY WITH SPEEDS OF 7KT OR
LESS.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
214 PM CDT
A WARM FRONT LIES SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN. WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS POOLING NEAR THE FRONT
HAVE RESULTED IN FOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...THUS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUES FOR THE REST
OF TODAY THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST
BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD RIDGE STRENGTHENS
AND REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...10 PM TUESDAY TO 10
AM WEDNESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 10
AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1247 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
300 PM...CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN MO WILL CONTINUE
LIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT LIKELY ARRIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
CWA LATE THIS EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THERE HAS APPEARED TO BE A
SHARP CUT OFF TO THIS PRECIP THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE HOW FAR
NORTH THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND BY MORNING. DIDN/T MAKE MANY CHANGES
WITH LIKELY POPS EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY RFD/JOT/RZL. STILL APPEARS
THERE MAY BE A LULL FROM MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE WARM FRONT BEGINS LIFTING NORTH ACCOMPANIED BY
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE. BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND DURATION
OF ANY LULL AND FOR THAT REASON MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS UNTIL
LATER AFTERNOON WHEN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MONDAY EVENING WITH A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA FOR DAY2. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
NO CHANGE TO PWATS IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. MODEL QPF SHOWS THE
HEAVIEST AXIS FROM WEST/NORTHWEST IL BACK INTO PARTS OF IOWA.
TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY END UP SIMILAR TO MONDAY...DIFFICULT
TO SEE MUCH WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
SO PERHAPS A LULL MIDDAY BUT WITH SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON NOW THAT THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPS MAY QUICKLY DROP THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLEAR SKIES...BUT
SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SPREAD NORTH. WITH THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...TEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S WITH MAV SUGGESTING LOW/MID 50S...THUS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HIGHS MONDAY. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S
TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS AT THE LAKE WITH EASTERLY FLOW. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
300 PM...ANY ACTIVITY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS TO END
WITH POSSIBLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. IF
WEDNESDAY PANS OUT DRY WITH SOME PARTIAL SUN...IT WILL LIKELY BE
QUITE WARM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT/LOW. GUIDANCE
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE LAKE WITH EITHER
A LAKE BREEZE OR AN EASTERLY GRADIENT DEVELOPING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THEN POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DRY PERIOD DOES NOW APPEAR TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THURSDAY POSSIBLY BECOMING BREEZY/WINDY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ECMWF/GFS HAVE
BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS AND NOW SHOWING -2C TO -4C
AT 850MB BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH VERY SLOWLY MODERATES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE IMPORTANT BUT LOWS
IN AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 30S SEEM POSSIBLE AND THIS COULD RESULT
IN SOME FROST. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR AVIATION WILL BE ON THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP AND
GUSTY EAST WINDS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK
PRESENTLY...HOWEVER CLOSER TO DAYBREAK THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 100-120 DEG WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-12KT AND GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-24KT BY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME CLOUDS
WILL STEADILY THICKEN AND LOWER...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN VFR CONDS
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIP TIMING CONTINUES TO SLOW
AS THE EAST WINDS WILL STEADILY USHER IN DRY AIR...SO HAVE PUSHED
BACK THE TIMING OF PRECIP UNTIL MIDDAY BUT EXPECT THE BETTER
COVERAGE FOR PRECIP TO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
BETWEEN 21-23Z CIGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER TOWARDS IFR CONDS AS THE
BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES...INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP. IN
ADDITION SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
PRECIP INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE AT THIS TIME HELD OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER...BUT THAT MAY INDEED NEED TO BE ADDED. CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER TOWARDS IFR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH LIKELY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
242 PM CDT
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES
EASTWARD. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHILE A SERIES OF LOWS SLOWLY DRIFT EAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE WEEK. THESE
LOWS MAY MERGE MIDWEEK BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...APPROACHING 25/30 KT MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY LATE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM
NORTHERN CANADA.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1159 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 838 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016
Showers associated with a frontal boundary across southern
Illinois continue to spread northeastward across central IL this
evening. Although the surface boundary is progged to move very
little overnight...a shortwave aloft will produce enough lift and
warm advection aloft for these showers to continue to spread
northeastward...reaching northwards of I-74 by midnight. Initially
there will be little lightning with these showers, but
observations show lightning across Missouri from KC-Quincy and
some of this activity could spread across central IL late in the
evening and overnight. Lows expected in the mid 50s despite
following a cooler day as thickening cloud cover won`t allow much
cooling to take place. Southeast winds around 10 mph will continue
through the night through central IL which will remain north of
the warm front. South of I-70, winds may switch to southerly if
the front moves that far by morning. Only minor updates needed
this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a stationary frontal boundary
extending from northeast Kansas to southern Kentucky. As a short
wave trough evident on latest water vapor imagery over
Oklahoma/Kansas lifts northward, it will give the front a push
northward tonight as well. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have
already developed along the front in association with the
approaching wave across eastern Kansas into central/western
Missouri...and this activity is expected to develop/spread
northeastward into central Illinois this evening. With a deeper
fetch of Gulf of Mexico moisture now apparent on water vapor imagery
and surface dewpoints across the Plains in the lower to middle 60s,
there will be adequate moisture available for precip development
tonight. The main difference between the models is how quickly the
rain arrives. The HRRR has been consistently faster than the other
models, with showers arriving as far north as the I-74 corridor as
early as 03-04z. Meanwhile, the 12z NAM had been a couple hours
slower, generally keeping the far northern CWA dry until around
midnight. The 18z run of the NAM has quickened the process and now
looks very similar to the HRRR. As a result, will be adjusting PoPs
to carry likely/categorical everywhere north of the I-70 corridor by
mid to late evening. The rain will lift northward through the night
and will likely be mainly along/north of I-74 by early Monday
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016
The northward progression of a warm front will highlight the
day on Monday, and signal increasing temps and dewpoints for the
first half of the week, along with chances for strong storms.
Monday morning will see a band of ongoing convection lifting north
across central Illinois ahead of the front, with precip generally
north of I-72 by sunrise. The mid-morning may see a break in the
rainfall for a majority of our forecast area. Storm chances will
increase from SW to NE late Monday morning and afternoon as an upper
level wave progresses eastward along the warm front. Our entire area
is included in a Marginal Risk (5%) of severe storms Monday
afternoon/eve. Instability params are pointing toward areas west
of Springfield to Peoria having higher instability values than our
eastern counties. MUCAPES of 1000-1400 J/kg could develop in the
west by afternoon if some sunshine develops during the break in
the rain Monday morning. Bulk shear values are marginal, in the
20-35kt range with the lower values in W IL and higher near
Indiana. Will keep likely PoPs Monday afternoon and categorical
PoPs Mon night as a strong upper level wave progresses across IL
into Tuesday morning. Storm chances will diminish by mid-morning
on Tuesday, but increase again Tues afternoon as a 500mb shortwave
lifts across central IL. MUCAPES on Tues afternoon look to climb
into the 2000-3000 J/kg range, with bulk shear of 30-35kt. The SPC
Marginal risk is currently south of I-72, which may get changed to
a Slight risk before Tuesday arrives if current instability trends
continue. We kept likely PoPs Tues afternoon, with large hail and
damaging winds possible with the strongest storms. Low level
helicity values appear supportive of rotating updrafts, especially
in east-central and southeast IL.
A NAM is advertising a break in the rain/storms for Tuesday night
and Wed morning, before the next wave of low pressure reaches IL Wed
afternoon. Will keep lower chance PoPs during that time to account
for possible scattered redevelopment along lingering boundaries.
Our area will remain in the warm sector Monday afternoon through
Wednesday, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s Monday
through Tuesday, then climbing into the mid to upper 60s on
Wednesday. That will help fuel another round of strong to severe
storms late Wed afternoon but primarily Wed night, as MUCAPES
possibly reach 3000-4500 J/kg across our forecast area, with the
highest instability in southeast IL. Bulk shear values in SE IL will
be marginal again, with 20-35kts indicated in the 12z NAM output. We
ramped up PoPs Wed night to likely over most of our counties, as a
cold front pushes from west to east, reaching just east of I-57 by
12z/7am Thursday.
Cooler and drier air will filter into Illinois behind that cold
front, bringing a break in the rain for Thur and Thursday night.
Highs will be in the low to mid 70s on Thurs, with highs on
Friday in the upper 60s N of I-74 and low 70s S of I-70. Rain
chances will increase Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front
arrives from the Northern Plains. There are differing solutions in
the extended models about the path of the surface low, but timing
still looks close for Fri aftn and Fri night rain.
Dry and much cooler conditions are projected for next weekend,
with highs only in the upper 50s to low 60s on Saturday, and
overnight lows in the lower 40s Saturday night. Highs on Sunday
look to climb a few degrees above Saturday, as southerly winds
develop ahead of the next rain producer for Sunday night into
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016
Ceilings are gradually lowering as scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms continue across most of central IL north of I-70.
Current trends indicate predominant ceilings should remain just
above MVFR thresholds primarily, with local lowering into MVFR
category. Visibilities showing more coverage in MVFR category. The
feature producing the current activity should move north of the
area by around 12Z with lighter and less predominant showers. Have
therefore improved conditions to VFR starting 10-12Z and dropped
predominant rain mention at that point. Increasing chances for
thunderstorms can be expected in the afternoon, continuing into
the evening with cigs and vsby worsening into MVFR category. Winds
generally SE 8-14 kts through the period. &&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
606 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 530 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS SURGE OF HIGHER
THETA E AIR ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT SETS THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING
OVERALL SCENARIO THUS FAR TODAY WITH MAIN AREA OF RAIN MOVING AWAY
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF
INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE. IF THE HRRR HOLDS TRUE THEN A BAND OF
SHOWERS WOULD EXPAND AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND THEN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WOULD PERSIST
INTO TUESDAY. THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE TAKING PLACE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH A NE TREND SO SEE NO REASON NOT TO
INCREASE TO HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A MESS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SOME IN THE NE AND STEADY
MAYBE RISING IN THE SW DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PROGRESS NORTH THE
FRONT MAKES.
MAIN WAVE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING WITH FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW
AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT ASSESS SITUATION.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
AS LONG WAVE TROUGH EJECTS THROUGH THE PLAINS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL MOVE BACK IN WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MAINTAINED
CHC TO LIKELY POPS THOUGH THIS TIME FRAME WITH DRYING BEHIND IT AS
WAVE DEPARTS...FRONT IS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS UPPER LOW
OVER CANADA SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH SENDING TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL WITH
A SERIES OF WAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE FLOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OVER FEW DAYS WARRANTING AT LEAST SOME MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FRI NGT INTO SAT AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AFTER MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH 00Z...MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA CHANCES WILL MOVE IN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT GRADUALLY WORSENING CONDITIONS
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY IFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN IFR MENTION IN TAF AT THIS POINT. THUNDER
CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 00Z AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS POINT. SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSBN...WITH SHOWERS MIXING DOWN INCREASED LOW
LEVEL FLOW.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...NG
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
319 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S TODAY AND IN THE
LOW 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUESDAY. WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN
LIKELY OVERSPREAD ON WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS SURGE OF HIGHER
THETA E AIR ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT SETS THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING
OVERALL SCENARIO THUS FAR TODAY WITH MAIN AREA OF RAIN MOVING AWAY
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF
INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE. IF THE HRRR HOLDS TRUE THEN A BAND OF
SHOWERS WOULD EXPAND AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND THEN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WOULD PERSIST
INTO TUESDAY. THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE TAKING PLACE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH A NE TREND SO SEE NO REASON NOT TO
INCREASE TO HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A MESS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SOME IN THE NE AND STEADY
MAYBE RISING IN THE SW DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PROGRESS NORTH THE
FRONT MAKES.
MAIN WAVE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING WITH FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW
AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT ASSESS SITUATION.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
AS LONG WAVE TROUGH EJECTS THROUGH THE PLAINS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL MOVE BACK IN WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MAINTAINED
CHC TO LIKELY POPS THOUGH THIS TIME FRAME WITH DRYING BEHIND IT AS
WAVE DEPARTS...FRONT IS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS UPPER LOW
OVER CANADA SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH SENDING TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL WITH
A SERIES OF WAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE FLOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OVER FEW DAYS WARRANTING AT LEAST SOME MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FRI NGT INTO SAT AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AFTER MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH 00Z...MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA CHANCES WILL MOVE IN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT GRADUALLY WORSENING CONDITIONS
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY IFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN IFR MENTION IN TAF AT THIS POINT. THUNDER
CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 00Z AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS POINT. SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSBN...WITH SHOWERS MIXING DOWN INCREASED LOW
LEVEL FLOW.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL/NG
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...NG
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
114 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
WIDESPREAD STRATUS CONTINUES TO LIMIT INSTABILITY AS TEMPERATURES
WERE ONLY IN THE 50S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH. WATER VAPOR
LOOPS SHOW DECENT SHORT WAVE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO MO AND THIS
HAS TRIGGERED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN MO AND
SOUTHEAST IA. THIS WIDESPREAD NATURE TO THE PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT ALONG WITH THE CLOUD COVER. SPC HAS
ONLY A MARGINAL RISK IN THE DVN CWA BUT THE MAIN ISSUE HERE WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SUCH A SATURATED AIRMASS AND PWAT`S
TO 1.50 INCHES. THE HRRR INDICATES WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ALONG I-70 IN MO
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. A SHORT
WAVE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN IA WHICH
HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN IA AND A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE DVN CWA. CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE ONLY IN THE
50S IN THE CWA EXCEPT OUR FAR SOUTH WHICH WAS AROUND 60.
DIFFICULT FORECAST AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP INSTABILITY MINIMAL AS
THE LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGEST STRATUS ALL DAY LONG. A STRONGER SHORT
WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN OK SHOULD IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS
IN MO WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED...AND WHERE THE BETTER
CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST. THIS AREA OF STORMS SHOULD
STRATIFY OUT AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE DVN CWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE
THREAT ESPECIALLY OUR FAR SOUTH DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE AND IF ANY BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST CAN OCCUR. AT THIS
TIME THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW IN THE DVN CWA BUT WILL MONITOR
CLOUD TRENDS AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
DIFFICULT FORECAST REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THIS SHIFT AS
CURRENT TRENDS IN THE PRECIP HAVE NOT BEEN IDENTIFIED BY MANY
MODELS. HAVE SCALED BACK THE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. DEVELOPMENT DOWN ALONG THE WARM
ADVECTION WING HAS STARTED TO ENTER THE CWA. CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA HAS FORMED ON A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THINK THAT BY THE TIME THIS WAVE LIGHTS UP CONVECTION WELL INTO US
THE FORCING WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. RIGHT NOW MY GUT TELLS ME
THAT WE WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
NEXT...STRONGER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE
IN SOLUTIONS...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED OVER THE
MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THESE STORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE
EAST ON AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT. THE VORT MAX LEADING TO THESE
STORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL
GRAVITY WAVES HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED ON RADAR THIS MORNING. THESE
GRAVITY WAVES AND MID LEVEL FORCING WILL LIKELY DICTATE WEATHER
THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SHORT WAVE SWINGING NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW
SHOULD CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS WOULD BE HIGH IF IT WASN`T FOR
THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.
CONVECTION LINGERING FROM MOTHERS DAY WAS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA. GUIDANCE...INCLUDING RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR TRY TO
PUSH THIS NORTH AND MISS OUR AREA. I`M HAVING A HARD TIME SEEING
THIS HAPPENING AS A WARM ADVECTION WING IS MOVING NORTH. MOISTURE
POOLING ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IA WOULD SUPPORT THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS TO MOVE EAST INSTEAD OF NORTHEAST. WHAT MY GUT
TELLS ME IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR AREA
THROUGH MID-MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS COULD BE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING INTO VERY EARLIER AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THIS WOULD
AFFECT THE FORECAST CONDITIONS LATER TODAY.
THINK ONE OF TWO THINGS IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. 1. DECAYING
CONVECTION WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN FORCING MOVING NORTH.
A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WOULD
BE LOW IN THIS SCENARIO. 2. THE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST DECAYS FASTER
THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING SO THAT MORE INSTABILITY CAN FORM. IF
THIS IS THE CASE...STRONGER STORMS AND EVEN SEVERE WEATHER COULD
BE POSSIBLE. A LOW END RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. AS FOR A TORNADO THREAT...WITH THE
WARM FRONT AND BACKED SFC WINDS...THINK THAT THERE IS A LOW END
CHANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. IF A TORNADO
WERE TO FORM IT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND LIKELY FROM A MULTICELL
STORM. I DO NOT HAVE A FIRM GUT FEELING ON EITHER OF THESE
SCENARIOS. THIS MEANS THAT WE NEED TO WATCH THIS MORNING PLAY OUT
BEFORE WE HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF THIS EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A COMMON THEME
WITH BOTH OF THESES SCENARIOS ARE THAT OFBS MAY BE PRESENT AFTER
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. OBVIOUSLY THESE COULD SERVE AS FOCI FOR
TRAINING OF STORMS AND POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF WE COULD BUILD SOME SBCAPE. ALL MODELS ARE
LOW ON SBCAPE...BUT WITH TONIGHTS CONVECTION ITS ANYONES GAME.
AS FOR THE RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
AREAS TODAY COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN BY 12Z TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME ITS HARD FOR ME TO NAIL DOWN AN AREA WHERE THIS MIGHT
OCCUR WITH SO MUCH OF TODAY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS THIS
MORNING. IF I HAD TO CHOOSE AN AREA...PROXIMITY TO THE SFC WARM
FRONT WOULD LIKELY DELINEATE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FLOODING
WOULD BE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. SUFFICE
IT TO SAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH
FORECAST PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN TO LIFT
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING DECREASING TRENDS
TO MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE MODULATED BY PRECIP AND CLOUDS... WITH THERMAL PARAMETERS
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE WIDESPREAD MID 70S UNDER MORE PROLONGED SOLAR
INSOLATION BUT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ANTICIPATE PTCLDY PERIODS AT
BEST AND SO OPTED WITH BLEND RANGING FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO MID 70S
SOUTH. TUESDAY NIGHT... SHOULD BRING ABOUT QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
WITH INCOMING SUBSIDENCE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE. WE MAY HAVE SOME FOG POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT IN
PORTIONS OF CWA WITH WET GROUND AND GIVEN WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH
BOUNDARY IN VICINITY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE QUIET PERIOD PERSISTS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
DEPARTING TROUGH AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ENHANCED BY DIFFERENTIAL CVA AHEAD OF
NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ROTATING UNDER H5 LOW TRACKING FROM ND TO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z THURSDAY. TEMPS TOPPING IN THE 80S AND
DEWPTS IN THE 60S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE CAPE OF 1500-2500
J/KG. A FEW MODELS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-45 KTS
WHICH ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-
8.5 C/KM SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING WITH SOME RISK OF LONG LIVED MULTICELL CLUSTER(S)
AND/OR A FEW SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A
FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE IN THIS MODERATE/STRONG KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... COOLER WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY POST
FRONTAL USHERED IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION THURSDAY MID AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET WITH
SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT (POSSIBLY
30S IN SHELTERED AREAS NORTH WHERE WINDS DIMINISH ALLOWING DECOUPLING
OF BL) WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF INCOMING
WEAK SUBSIDENCE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... CONTINUED COOL DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND COMPLIMENTS
OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT HARBORING MAIN THRUST OF COLD ADVECTION. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY PM WITH GUSTY WINDS IN STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE REGIME.
HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY DROP INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ON SATURDAY WITH
850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -1C TO -4C 12Z SATURDAY RECOVERING TO AROUND
0C BY 00Z SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMP TECHNIQUE AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL INVERSION
SUGGEST AT LEAST MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGS FOR LOWS SUNDAY AM... WITH POTENTIAL
TO BE COLDER INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTH WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FROST RISK IN
SHELTERED OR LOW LYING AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MVFR/OCNL IFR CONDS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFTER 05Z/10. CONDS SHOULD BECOME MVFR POSSIBLY VFR
TUESDAY MORNING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. WINDS BECOMING
SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
950 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ALONG I-70 IN MO
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. A SHORT
WAVE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN IA WHICH
HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN IA AND A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE DVN CWA. CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE ONLY IN THE
50S IN THE CWA EXCEPT OUR FAR SOUTH WHICH WAS AROUND 60.
DIFFICULT FORECAST AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP INSTABILITY MINIMAL AS
THE LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGEST STRATUS ALL DAY LONG. A STRONGER SHORT
WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN OK SHOULD IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS
IN MO WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED...AND WHERE THE BETTER
CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST. THIS AREA OF STORMS SHOULD
STRATIFY OUT AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE DVN CWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE
THREAT ESPECIALLY OUR FAR SOUTH DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE AND IF ANY BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST CAN OCCUR. AT THIS
TIME THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW IN THE DVN CWA BUT WILL MONITOR
CLOUD TRENDS AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
DIFFICULT FORECAST REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THIS SHIFT AS
CURRENT TRENDS IN THE PRECIP HAVE NOT BEEN IDENTIFIED BY MANY
MODELS. HAVE SCALED BACK THE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. DEVELOPMENT DOWN ALONG THE WARM
ADVECTION WING HAS STARTED TO ENTER THE CWA. CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA HAS FORMED ON A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THINK THAT BY THE TIME THIS WAVE LIGHTS UP CONVECTION WELL INTO US
THE FORCING WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. RIGHT NOW MY GUT TELLS ME
THAT WE WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
NEXT...STRONGER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE
IN SOLUTIONS...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED OVER THE
MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THESE STORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE
EAST ON AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT. THE VORT MAX LEADING TO THESE
STORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL
GRAVITY WAVES HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED ON RADAR THIS MORNING. THESE
GRAVITY WAVES AND MID LEVEL FORCING WILL LIKELY DICTATE WEATHER
THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SHORT WAVE SWINGING NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW
SHOULD CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS WOULD BE HIGH IF IT WASN`T FOR
THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.
CONVECTION LINGERING FROM MOTHERS DAY WAS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA. GUIDANCE...INCLUDING RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR TRY TO
PUSH THIS NORTH AND MISS OUR AREA. I`M HAVING A HARD TIME SEEING
THIS HAPPENING AS A WARM ADVECTION WING IS MOVING NORTH. MOISTURE
POOLING ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IA WOULD SUPPORT THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS TO MOVE EAST INSTEAD OF NORTHEAST. WHAT MY GUT
TELLS ME IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR AREA
THROUGH MID-MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS COULD BE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING INTO VERY EARLIER AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THIS WOULD
AFFECT THE FORECAST CONDITIONS LATER TODAY.
THINK ONE OF TWO THINGS IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. 1. DECAYING
CONVECTION WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN FORCING MOVING NORTH.
A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WOULD
BE LOW IN THIS SCENARIO. 2. THE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST DECAYS FASTER
THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING SO THAT MORE INSTABILITY CAN FORM. IF
THIS IS THE CASE...STRONGER STORMS AND EVEN SEVERE WEATHER COULD
BE POSSIBLE. A LOW END RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. AS FOR A TORNADO THREAT...WITH THE
WARM FRONT AND BACKED SFC WINDS...THINK THAT THERE IS A LOW END
CHANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. IF A TORNADO
WERE TO FORM IT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND LIKELY FROM A MULTICELL
STORM. I DO NOT HAVE A FIRM GUT FEELING ON EITHER OF THESE
SCENARIOS. THIS MEANS THAT WE NEED TO WATCH THIS MORNING PLAY OUT
BEFORE WE HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF THIS EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A COMMON THEME
WITH BOTH OF THESES SCENARIOS ARE THAT OFBS MAY BE PRESENT AFTER
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. OBVIOUSLY THESE COULD SERVE AS FOCI FOR
TRAINING OF STORMS AND POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF WE COULD BUILD SOME SBCAPE. ALL MODELS ARE
LOW ON SBCAPE...BUT WITH TONIGHTS CONVECTION ITS ANYONES GAME.
AS FOR THE RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
AREAS TODAY COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN BY 12Z TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME ITS HARD FOR ME TO NAIL DOWN AN AREA WHERE THIS MIGHT
OCCUR WITH SO MUCH OF TODAY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS THIS
MORNING. IF I HAD TO CHOOSE AN AREA...PROXIMITY TO THE SFC WARM
FRONT WOULD LIKELY DELINEATE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FLOODING
WOULD BE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. SUFFICE
IT TO SAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH
FORECAST PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN TO LIFT
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING DECREASING TRENDS
TO MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE MODULATED BY PRECIP AND CLOUDS... WITH THERMAL PARAMETERS
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE WIDESPREAD MID 70S UNDER MORE PROLONGED SOLAR
INSOLATION BUT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ANTICIPATE PTCLDY PERIODS AT
BEST AND SO OPTED WITH BLEND RANGING FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO MID 70S
SOUTH. TUESDAY NIGHT... SHOULD BRING ABOUT QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
WITH INCOMING SUBSIDENCE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE. WE MAY HAVE SOME FOG POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT IN
PORTIONS OF CWA WITH WET GROUND AND GIVEN WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH
BOUNDARY IN VICINITY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE QUIET PERIOD PERSISTS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
DEPARTING TROUGH AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ENHANCED BY DIFFERENTIAL CVA AHEAD OF
NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ROTATING UNDER H5 LOW TRACKING FROM ND TO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z THURSDAY. TEMPS TOPPING IN THE 80S AND
DEWPTS IN THE 60S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE CAPE OF 1500-2500
J/KG. A FEW MODELS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-45 KTS
WHICH ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-
8.5 C/KM SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING WITH SOME RISK OF LONG LIVED MULTICELL CLUSTER(S)
AND/OR A FEW SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A
FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE IN THIS MODERATE/STRONG KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... COOLER WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY POST
FRONTAL USHERED IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION THURSDAY MID AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET WITH
SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT (POSSIBLY
30S IN SHELTERED AREAS NORTH WHERE WINDS DIMINISH ALLOWING DECOUPLING
OF BL) WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF INCOMING
WEAK SUBSIDENCE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... CONTINUED COOL DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND COMPLIMENTS
OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT HARBORING MAIN THRUST OF COLD ADVECTION. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY PM WITH GUSTY WINDS IN STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE REGIME.
HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY DROP INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ON SATURDAY WITH
850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -1C TO -4C 12Z SATURDAY RECOVERING TO AROUND
0C BY 00Z SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMP TECHNIQUE AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL INVERSION
SUGGEST AT LEAST MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGS FOR LOWS SUNDAY AM... WITH POTENTIAL
TO BE COLDER INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTH WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FROST RISK IN
SHELTERED OR LOW LYING AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST TODAY AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO CIGS SHIFTING BETWEEN IFR...MVFR AND
VFR THIS MORNING UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT MOVES NORTH AND WE SEE MORE
IFR CIGS LATER THIS AM AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HEATING COULD CAUSE
SOME OF THESE CIGS TO RISE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVERTISING THAT
UNTIL THAT IS ACTUALLY SEEN IN THE OBS. THINK ALL OF THE TAF SITES
WILL SEE THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE ADDED
VCTS. SPECIFIC TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ELUSIVE AT THIS
TIME. LATER FORECASTS SHOULD REFINE THE TIMING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
648 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
DIFFICULT FORECAST REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THIS SHIFT AS
CURRENT TRENDS IN THE PRECIP HAVE NOT BEEN IDENTIFIED BY MANY
MODELS. HAVE SCALED BACK THE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. DEVELOPMENT DOWN ALONG THE WARM
ADVECTION WING HAS STARTED TO ENTER THE CWA. CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA HAS FORMED ON A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THINK THAT BY THE TIME THIS WAVE LIGHTS UP CONVECTION WELL INTO US
THE FORCING WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. RIGHT NOW MY GUT TELLS ME
THAT WE WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
NEXT...STRONGER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE
IN SOLUTIONS...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED OVER THE
MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THESE STORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE
EAST ON AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT. THE VORT MAX LEADING TO THESE
STORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL
GRAVITY WAVES HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED ON RADAR THIS MORNING. THESE
GRAVITY WAVES AND MID LEVEL FORCING WILL LIKELY DICTATE WEATHER
THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SHORT WAVE SWINGING NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW
SHOULD CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS WOULD BE HIGH IF IT WASN`T FOR
THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.
CONVECTION LINGERING FROM MOTHERS DAY WAS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA. GUIDANCE...INCLUDING RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR TRY TO
PUSH THIS NORTH AND MISS OUR AREA. I`M HAVING A HARD TIME SEEING
THIS HAPPENING AS A WARM ADVECTION WING IS MOVING NORTH. MOISTURE
POOLING ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IA WOULD SUPPORT THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS TO MOVE EAST INSTEAD OF NORTHEAST. WHAT MY GUT
TELLS ME IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR AREA
THROUGH MID-MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS COULD BE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING INTO VERY EARLIER AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THIS WOULD
AFFECT THE FORECAST CONDITIONS LATER TODAY.
THINK ONE OF TWO THINGS IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. 1. DECAYING
CONVECTION WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN FORCING MOVING NORTH.
A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WOULD
BE LOW IN THIS SCENARIO. 2. THE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST DECAYS FASTER
THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING SO THAT MORE INSTABILITY CAN FORM. IF
THIS IS THE CASE...STRONGER STORMS AND EVEN SEVERE WEATHER COULD
BE POSSIBLE. A LOW END RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. AS FOR A TORNADO THREAT...WITH THE
WARM FRONT AND BACKED SFC WINDS...THINK THAT THERE IS A LOW END
CHANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. IF A TORNADO
WERE TO FORM IT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND LIKELY FROM A MULTICELL
STORM. I DO NOT HAVE A FIRM GUT FEELING ON EITHER OF THESE
SCENARIOS. THIS MEANS THAT WE NEED TO WATCH THIS MORNING PLAY OUT
BEFORE WE HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF THIS EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A COMMON THEME
WITH BOTH OF THESES SCENARIOS ARE THAT OFBS MAY BE PRESENT AFTER
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. OBVIOUSLY THESE COULD SERVE AS FOCI FOR
TRAINING OF STORMS AND POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF WE COULD BUILD SOME SBCAPE. ALL MODELS ARE
LOW ON SBCAPE...BUT WITH TONIGHTS CONVECTION ITS ANYONES GAME.
AS FOR THE RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
AREAS TODAY COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN BY 12Z TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME ITS HARD FOR ME TO NAIL DOWN AN AREA WHERE THIS MIGHT
OCCUR WITH SO MUCH OF TODAY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS THIS
MORNING. IF I HAD TO CHOOSE AN AREA...PROXIMITY TO THE SFC WARM
FRONT WOULD LIKELY DELINEATE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FLOODING
WOULD BE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. SUFFICE
IT TO SAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH
FORECAST PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN TO LIFT
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING DECREASING TRENDS
TO MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE MODULATED BY PRECIP AND CLOUDS... WITH THERMAL PARAMETERS
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE WIDESPREAD MID 70S UNDER MORE PROLONGED SOLAR
INSOLATION BUT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ANTICIPATE PTCLDY PERIODS AT
BEST AND SO OPTED WITH BLEND RANGING FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO MID 70S
SOUTH. TUESDAY NIGHT... SHOULD BRING ABOUT QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
WITH INCOMING SUBSIDENCE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE. WE MAY HAVE SOME FOG POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT IN
PORTIONS OF CWA WITH WET GROUND AND GIVEN WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH
BOUNDARY IN VICINITY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE QUIET PERIOD PERSISTS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
DEPARTING TROUGH AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ENHANCED BY DIFFERENTIAL CVA AHEAD OF
NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ROTATING UNDER H5 LOW TRACKING FROM ND TO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z THURSDAY. TEMPS TOPPING IN THE 80S AND
DEWPTS IN THE 60S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE CAPE OF 1500-2500
J/KG. A FEW MODELS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-45 KTS
WHICH ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-
8.5 C/KM SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING WITH SOME RISK OF LONG LIVED MULTICELL CLUSTER(S)
AND/OR A FEW SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A
FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE IN THIS MODERATE/STRONG KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... COOLER WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY POST
FRONTAL USHERED IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION THURSDAY MID AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET WITH
SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT (POSSIBLY
30S IN SHELTERED AREAS NORTH WHERE WINDS DIMINISH ALLOWING DECOUPLING
OF BL) WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF INCOMING
WEAK SUBSIDENCE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... CONTINUED COOL DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND COMPLIMENTS
OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT HARBORING MAIN THRUST OF COLD ADVECTION. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY PM WITH GUSTY WINDS IN STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE REGIME.
HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY DROP INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ON SATURDAY WITH
850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -1C TO -4C 12Z SATURDAY RECOVERING TO AROUND
0C BY 00Z SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMP TECHNIQUE AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL INVERSION
SUGGEST AT LEAST MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGS FOR LOWS SUNDAY AM... WITH POTENTIAL
TO BE COLDER INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTH WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FROST RISK IN
SHELTERED OR LOW LYING AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST TODAY AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO CIGS SHIFTING BETWEEN IFR...MVFR AND
VFR THIS MORNING UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT MOVES NORTH AND WE SEE MORE
IFR CIGS LATER THIS AM AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HEATING COULD CAUSE
SOME OF THESE CIGS TO RISE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVERTISING THAT
UNTIL THAT IS ACTUALLY SEEN IN THE OBS. THINK ALL OF THE TAF SITES
WILL SEE THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE ADDED
VCTS. SPECIFIC TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ELUSIVE AT THIS
TIME. LATER FORECASTS SHOULD REFINE THE TIMING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED OVER THE
MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THESE STORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE
EAST ON AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT. THE VORT MAX LEADING TO THESE
STORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL
GRAVITY WAVES HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED ON RADAR THIS MORNING. THESE
GRAVITY WAVES AND MID LEVEL FORCING WILL LIKELY DICTATE WEATHER
THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SHORT WAVE SWINGING NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW
SHOULD CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS WOULD BE HIGH IF IT WASN`T FOR
THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.
CONVECTION LINGERING FROM MOTHERS DAY WAS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA. GUIDANCE...INCLUDING RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR TRY TO
PUSH THIS NORTH AND MISS OUR AREA. I`M HAVING A HARD TIME SEEING
THIS HAPPENING AS A WARM ADVECTION WING IS MOVING NORTH. MOISTURE
POOLING ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IA WOULD SUPPORT THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS TO MOVE EAST INSTEAD OF NORTHEAST. WHAT MY GUT
TELLS ME IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR AREA
THROUGH MID-MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS COULD BE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING INTO VERY EARLIER AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THIS WOULD
AFFECT THE FORECAST CONDITIONS LATER TODAY.
THINK ONE OF TWO THINGS IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. 1. DECAYING
CONVECTION WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN FORCING MOVING NORTH.
A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WOULD
BE LOW IN THIS SCENARIO. 2. THE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST DECAYS FASTER
THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING SO THAT MORE INSTABILITY CAN FORM. IF
THIS IS THE CASE...STRONGER STORMS AND EVEN SEVERE WEATHER COULD
BE POSSIBLE. A LOW END RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. AS FOR A TORNADO THREAT...WITH THE
WARM FRONT AND BACKED SFC WINDS...THINK THAT THERE IS A LOW END
CHANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. IF A TORNADO
WERE TO FORM IT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND LIKELY FROM A MULTICELL
STORM. I DO NOT HAVE A FIRM GUT FEELING ON EITHER OF THESE
SCENARIOS. THIS MEANS THAT WE NEED TO WATCH THIS MORNING PLAY OUT
BEFORE WE HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF THIS EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A COMMON THEME
WITH BOTH OF THESES SCENARIOS ARE THAT OFBS MAY BE PRESENT AFTER
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. OBVIOUSLY THESE COULD SERVE AS FOCI FOR
TRAINING OF STORMS AND POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF WE COULD BUILD SOME SBCAPE. ALL MODELS ARE
LOW ON SBCAPE...BUT WITH TONIGHTS CONVECTION ITS ANYONES GAME.
AS FOR THE RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
AREAS TODAY COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN BY 12Z TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME ITS HARD FOR ME TO NAIL DOWN AN AREA WHERE THIS MIGHT
OCCUR WITH SO MUCH OF TODAY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS THIS
MORNING. IF I HAD TO CHOOSE AN AREA...PROXIMITY TO THE SFC WARM
FRONT WOULD LIKELY DELINEATE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FLOODING
WOULD BE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. SUFFICE
IT TO SAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH
FORECAST PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN TO LIFT
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING DECREASING TRENDS
TO MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE MODULATED BY PRECIP AND CLOUDS... WITH THERMAL PARAMETERS
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE WIDESPREAD MID 70S UNDER MORE PROLONGED SOLAR
INSOLATION BUT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ANTICIPATE PTCLDY PERIODS AT
BEST AND SO OPTED WITH BLEND RANGING FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO MID 70S
SOUTH. TUESDAY NIGHT... SHOULD BRING ABOUT QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
WITH INCOMING SUBSIDENCE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE. WE MAY HAVE SOME FOG POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT IN
PORTIONS OF CWA WITH WET GROUND AND GIVEN WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH
BOUNDARY IN VICINITY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE QUIET PERIOD PERSISTS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
DEPARTING TROUGH AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ENHANCED BY DIFFERENTIAL CVA AHEAD OF
NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ROTATING UNDER H5 LOW TRACKING FROM ND TO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z THURSDAY. TEMPS TOPPING IN THE 80S AND
DEWPTS IN THE 60S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE CAPE OF 1500-2500
J/KG. A FEW MODELS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-45 KTS
WHICH ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-
8.5 C/KM SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING WITH SOME RISK OF LONG LIVED MULTICELL CLUSTER(S)
AND/OR A FEW SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A
FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE IN THIS MODERATE/STRONG KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... COOLER WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY POST
FRONTAL USHERED IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION THURSDAY MID AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET WITH
SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT (POSSIBLY
30S IN SHELTERED AREAS NORTH WHERE WINDS DIMINISH ALLOWING DECOUPLING
OF BL) WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF INCOMING
WEAK SUBSIDENCE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... CONTINUED COOL DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND COMPLIMENTS
OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT HARBORING MAIN THRUST OF COLD ADVECTION. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY PM WITH GUSTY WINDS IN STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE REGIME.
HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY DROP INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ON SATURDAY WITH
850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -1C TO -4C 12Z SATURDAY RECOVERING TO AROUND
0C BY 00Z SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMP TECHNIQUE AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL INVERSION
SUGGEST AT LEAST MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGS FOR LOWS SUNDAY AM... WITH POTENTIAL
TO BE COLDER INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTH WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FROST RISK IN
SHELTERED OR LOW LYING AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WHICH CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
AFTER AN INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DECREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE...FOLLOWED
BY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS LIKELY MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
954 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
Have updated the forecast to increase POPs to reflect a more
likely setup for elevated storms overnight. The HRRR, while
somewhat inconsistent with the reflectivity prog, continues to
develop elevated storms after 06Z and the latest RAP/NAM insist on
good low level moisture and theta-e advection developing
overnight. The moisture is not very far away with lower 70 degree
dewpoints observed in eastern OK. That moisture along with fairly
steep mid level lapse rates should yield CAPE values of 1000 to
2000 J/kg surging into eastern KS before daybreak. The 00Z NAM and
01Z RAP are weaker with an elevated mixed layer and given the
potential energy, large hail will remain possible with any
thunderstorm development. The limiting factor may be the effective
shear which is rather marginal. The only factor in not going with
categorical wording is concerns for coverage and the HRRR`s
inconsistent depiction of convection.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
Currently, the 20Z WV shows a strong upper level trough over the
Northern Rockies with weak ridging centered over the Central Plains
into the Mid MS Valley. At the surface, a surface lee side low is
situated over southwestern KS and southeastern CO with a weak cold
boundary working into south central Nebraska and northwestern KS.
Pleasant conditions for northeastern KS hold through early evening
tonight with temps to top out generally in the low 80s in the next
hour. Lows tonight should fall into the low 60s and probably mid to
upper 50s in northwestern and northern counties along the KS/NE
stateline as an MCS/MCV is expected to develop over northwestern KS
later tonight and track just to the north of the stateline dragging
the southern portions of the complex through northeastern KS.
Therefore, threats tonight do include the possibility of hail and
some stronger winds, but the wind threat seems low due to the
boundary layer having time to cool and stabilize therefore setting
up an inversion before storms enter the region. Not expecting the
boundary layer to completely decouple, so there will be WAA in place
at the surface. However, some potential factors give only medium
confidence in how much elevated severe hail may develop. Most
guidance suggests that if we do see hail it will most likely be
north of I-70 as a LLJ does kick in above the inversion around 9-12Z
time frame. MUCAPE does reach up to 2500J/kg and lapse rates do
possibly steepen to around 7C/km and shear does seem adequate to see
some cells that could produce severe hail and possibly larger.
However, the overall best lift remains to the north in southeast
Nebraska, so ultimately, until the storms form, it is still hard to
see exactly how all these ingredients line up.
However, the bias from most short-term guidance seems to suggest
that the bulk of the activity will be to the north of the forecast
area in the morning.
The afternoon time frame has some question too depending on trailing
stratus and how persistent it is through the day. However, the best
chance for any severe storms in the afternoon will likely be very
southeastern and some eastern counties off through the Kansas City
area due to the cold frontal boundary finally pushing through after
00Z bringing an end to severe potential. Another complicating
factor for the afternoon is how much of a CAP is in place and
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
Wednesday Night through Friday...
Showers and thunderstorms move out of east central KS late Wednesday
evening, or shortly after midnight. With northwest flow aloft, high
pressure ridge builds southeast into the Central Plains for
Thursday, with pleasant temperatures in the 70s and low humidities.
Ridge moves off to the southeast Thursday night as southerly low-
level winds return ahead of a low pressure area approaching from
Nebraska. This low and associated cold front will not run into the
deeper moisture in eastern/east central Kansas until Thursday
afternoon, with thunderstorm development possible. Highs on
Thursday should be about 5 degrees warmer than those on Wednesday,
generally in the mid to upper 70s.
Friday Night through Tuesday...
Northwest flow aloft will be the dominate pattern throughout the
extended period. A weak cold front is expected to push across the
area Friday night into Saturday morning, bringing the chance for a
few showers/thunderstorms across the eastern half of the area. Very
weak shortwaves within the northwest flow will present slight
chances for rain showers Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will
also be noticeably cooler Saturday and Sunday with highs only in
the low to middle 60s. A low amplified trough across the western
United States will push eastward into the central and southern
plains on Monday, increasing chances for thunderstorms Monday
afternoon and evening. Severe weather chances appear low at this
point as moisture return appears very limited through midweek.
Zonal flow will then ensue for the remained of the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
Most of the model guidance shows strong low level moisture and
theta-e advection overnight with steep (approaching 8 C/km) mid
level lapse rates. Only think to preclude a prevailing TS group
was forecast soundings showing some inhibition and hi res models
favoring elevated development north of I-70. Will monitor trends
and amend if it looks like TS are more obvious overnight. Also
there is a strong signal for stratus moving in with the low level
moisture advection. Confidence in IFR CIGS is marginal at this
time but there is some potential for IFR CIGS.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Baerg/GDP
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
542 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THIS EVENING. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
PERSISTENT IN CONSOLIDATION OF CENTRAL COLORADO STORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE REGION AS AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS
TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY CASTS A LITTLE DOUBT ON THAT
SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF ACTIVITY OVER MOST
OF THE REGION RIGHT NOW. AS A RESULT...DOWNGRADED SOME OF THE POPS
10-15 PERCENT.
ONLY SEVERE STORM...LOCATED IN NORTON COUNTY...IS NOW MOVING TO
THE EAST INTO THE HASTINGS, NEBRASKA FORECAST AREA. STORM WAS
SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE AT TIMES AND DID PRODUCE HAIL UP TO QUARTER
SIZE. FEEL THE SEVERE HAIL THREAT MIGHT BE OVER. THE PRIMARY
THREAT FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REST OF THIS
EVENING SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND HIGH
DCAPE WOULD SUPPORT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL
DOWNBURSTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER EASTERN
KANSAS. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LOW. AT THE SURFACE...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS IN PLACE FROM JUST
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SNW HALF
OF THE CW (JUST NORTHWEST OF KMCK AND KGLD).
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SUBSIDENCE SPREADING OVER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST BY 12Z TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING PARTICULARLY
IN OUR NORTH AND EAST...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MEAN FLOW
WILL TEND TO BE PARALLEL TO FRONT AND POST FRONTAL ELEVATED
FRONTOGENESIS (850-700MB LAYER)...WHICH COULD SUPPORT TRAINING OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
REGARDING SEVERE THREAT...STRONG LINEAR/SPEED SHEAR IS IN PLACE AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING RAISING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS/MCS POTENTIAL. LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS LIMITED CAPE CURRENTLY
SHOW BY LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. GFS CURRENTLY REFLECTS CURRENT TRENDS
AND AT MOST HAS MU CAPE IN THE 500-900 J/KG RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER MU CAPE IN THE 900-
1500 J/KG RANGE IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE NAM ALREADY SEEMS TO BE RUNNING HIGH ON
TDS THIS IS LIKELY INFLUENCING ITS CAPE PROFILES. IF GFS CONTINUES
TO VERIFY I AM SKEPTICAL THAT WE WOULD SEE MORE THAN SHOWERS AND
MARGINAL THUNDERSTORMS. WITH INVERTED V PROFILES ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
STRONG WINDS WILL BE A PRIMARY THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS. IF
HIGHER CAPE (NAM) VERIFIES THEN WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED QUARTER SIZE
HAIL THREAT.
WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING
SHOULD END WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN ROTATES THROUGH THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRECIP
SIGNAL IN OUR SOUTHWEST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND I STUCK WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY I AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE ACTIVITY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS (MAINLY
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S).
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. THE RIDGE
REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN AND
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ROTATE IN FROM
THE WEST NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND AROUND A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WENT WITH DRY POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE BLEND GAVE 40 TO 50
PERCENT POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
SOME SUBSIDENCE TO OVERCOME AS THE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD THUS I
REDUCED POPS SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY...POPS REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AS THE LOW
MOVES OVER THE CWA AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN IS SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR-TERM HOURS OF PREVIOUS TAFS. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO CONSOLIDATING INTO AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER...SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF INSTABILITY CASTS
DOUBT ON THIS SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE A TEMPO GROUP TO
PREVAIL THUNDERSTORMS BUT UNSURE IF THIS WILL PAN OUT.
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT IN
THE MOIST...POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THINKING STRATUS REMAINS
SOUTH AND EAST OF BOTH TAF SITES. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH CLEARING SKIES BY TOMORROW
MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
211 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SECONDARY CLOSED ROTATION ACROSS SW
KANSAS. UPSTREAM A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL MONTANA
AND ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO. ANOTHER UPPER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS IN OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH COLD FRONT/WARM FRONT EAST OF OUR CWA. A
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM YUMA COUNTY TO NEAR KGLD
AND SOUTH.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...VORTICITY ALOFT ROTATING ROUND UPPER LOW IN
THE SOUTH AND NORTH OF OUR CWA WILL COMBINE WITH RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR CWA TO BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD
AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN OUR FAR SOUTH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW INITIATION ROUGHLY ALONG COLORADO STATE LINE AND EAST WHERE
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE WITH PEAK COVERAGE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER SUNRISE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING PUT AN END TO ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY.
REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TD VALUES AROUND 50-58 ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA AND HAVE LED TO SB CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG
(WHICH RAPIDLY DROPS OFF IN THE WEST). DEEP LAYER SHEER HOWEVER IS
UNIMPRESSIVE (BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER BELOW 30KT)...SO MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE IN STRENGTH. CONSIDERING CAPE IN OUR EAST I
WOULDNT RULE OUT A A FEW NEAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (HAIL/WIND) ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE CAPE IN OUR EAST.
SHORT RANGE ANALYSIS ALSO CURRENTLY SHOWS STRONG LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
AND GOOD 0-3KM CAPE NEAR SURFACE TROUGH IN OUR EAST AND THIS COULD
SET THE STAGE FOR LANDSPOUT DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE LOW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
UPDRAFTS IN THIS REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH RIGHT NOW.
TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER IDAHO WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH BASE OF TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND A STRONG
JET STREAK/MID LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BEGIN TO ROTATE TOWARDS OUR CWA.
DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WITHIN SW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING
OUR CWA FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL CONTINUES TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD ALONG
COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON BL MOISTURE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CAPE VALUES
COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 500 J/KG TO 1500 J/KG. SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER WITH DEEP MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE (PWATS OVER
1.0") WE COULD SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 BY
LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE UPPER PLAINS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED POPS ON AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT THIS
POINT HOWEVER WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING BOTH THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH MOVES TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING IN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE IT
BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES EAST. POPS INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY...AS
ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST...DRIVEN
BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER MANITOBA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
STRATUS WITH CIGS 1000-2000 FT CONTINUE EARLY THE TAF PERIOD OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT KMCK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO VFR.
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH ACTIVITY
RAPIDLY COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING. GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AT KMCK AND GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
LIGHT FOG (5-6SM) AND MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING AT KMCK BY SUNRISE.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
259 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SEMI-DIFFUSE DRYLINE LOCATED ROUGHLY
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SALINA TO
MEDICINE LODGE. CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ERUPT ALONG THE DRYLINE
JUST TO THE EAST OF P28.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AIRMASS DESTABILIZING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AS THE CLEARING CONTINUES...WITH MOST AREAS SLOWLY BECOMING
UNCAPPED. LATEST HI-RES MODELS (NAMNEST/ARW) SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE OK
PANHANDLE ROTATES EAST. GIVEN SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS...THINK A BROKEN LINE OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. BETTER BULK SHEAR IS
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...SO THINK THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
BE LOCATED ALONG OR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400. AS THE SUPERCELLS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KS PROGRESS TO THE EAST...THERE IS A A REMOTE CHANCE
OF A TORNADO...WHERE 0-1 KM SHEAR IS AROUND 20 KTS...BUT THINK THIS
CHANCE IS VERY SLIM...AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MARGINAL AND BETTER A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN OK. PREFER TO EMPHASIZE THE LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE
FLINT HILLS AND SE KS. BUT THE FURTHER EAST THE STORMS GET THE LESS
ORGANIZED THEY WILL BE...GIVEN THE BETTER BULK SHEAR SHIFTING INTO
SW MO BETWEEN 00-06Z. SO MORE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING...
WITH MOST OF THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT.
SHOULD SEE A NICE WARMUP ON TUE...AS S-SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WITH MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 80S.
LATEST GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW THE LOW MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNING TO
THE AREA FOR TUE EVENING/NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KS. EXPECT THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL KS FOR LATE TUE EVENING OR POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT TUE...WITH CONVERGENCE INCREASING ENOUGH FOR A STRONG
STORM CHANCE...LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS FROM KSLN TO KCNU.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS INTO SE KS
ON WED...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE FLINT
HILLS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED. BOTH THE GFS/NAM/WRF SHOW THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OR BEING SITUATED ACROSS SE KS FOR LATE
WED AFTERNOON...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS SE KS FOR LATE WED AFTERNOON OR WED EVENING. SO WILL KEEP
POPS GOING FOR MOST OF SE KS FOR WED EVENING.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THU WILL PLAY OUT.
THE NAM/WRF BLOWS UP A COMPLEX OF STORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND
DROPS IT E-SE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR LATE
WED NIGHT. WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THIS COMPLEX FURTHER SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PREFER TO KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL KS DRY FOR NOW...AND GO
WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS SOLUTION.
KETCHAM
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME WILL PLAY OUT. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG THE MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THE GFS FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE FASTER AND
ALLOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO THE PLAINS FASTER...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A MORE UNSETTLED WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A LOT
DRIER AND KEEPS THE MOISTURE RETURN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE
KS/OK BORDER. FOR CONSENSUS SAKE PREFER THE WETTER GFS
SOLUTION...KEEPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
KETCHAM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CIGS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SCT-BKN DECK OF 2500 TO 3500 WILL
EXIST FOR ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
FROM THE FLINT HILLS EAST AFTER 19-20Z AND MOVE EASTWARD. THIS
WILL AFFECT KCNU AND BRING ABOUT VCTS AND A BKN DECK AT 2500 AND
LOWER IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF STORMS. FURTHER WEST...STORMS WILL
FIRE ALONG THE DRY LINE AFTER 21Z AND AFFECT KSLN AND KICT...AND
POSSIBLY KHUT. ONCE AGAIN VCTS AND CIGS OF 2500 ARE POSSIBLE AND
LOWER IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF STORMS. AFTER ABOUT 3-4Z AT ALL
SITES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
CHANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 57 86 63 77 / 30 10 20 30
HUTCHINSON 55 86 59 73 / 20 10 20 30
NEWTON 57 85 61 75 / 30 10 20 30
ELDORADO 58 85 63 79 / 30 10 20 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 57 86 64 80 / 30 10 20 20
RUSSELL 53 84 54 69 / 20 10 40 30
GREAT BEND 53 85 54 70 / 20 10 30 30
SALINA 55 85 58 72 / 30 10 30 30
MCPHERSON 55 85 58 72 / 30 10 30 30
COFFEYVILLE 62 84 65 82 / 50 10 20 40
CHANUTE 62 83 64 80 / 50 10 20 40
IOLA 62 83 64 79 / 50 10 20 40
PARSONS-KPPF 62 84 65 81 / 50 10 20 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KETCHAM
LONG TERM...KETCHAM
AVIATION...CWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1139 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING LIFTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY
AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
U.S. TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SWINGS THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THE SURFACE LOW OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS REMAINS GENERALLY IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
BECOMES MORE BROAD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO
EASTERN MONTANA. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW CENTER BEGINS TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH A
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEEPENING IN PANHANDLE REGION. THE UPPER
LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA LIFTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY
WEDNESDAY WITH A THROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT
A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION DURING THIS TIME WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TRANSITIONING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE JET MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND ALONG
WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WITH STRONG LIFT SHOWING UP IN TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THAT WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DRIES WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT ONLY ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS THE COOLER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
TROUGH THAT IMPACTED THE REGION EARLIER IN THE WEEK MOVES EAST.
THERE IS A RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL BUMP
UP HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND 80S. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RIGHT
NOW THE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN LOCATION OF THIS LOW...WITH THE
GFS PUTTING IT IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EUROPEAN PUTTING IT
OVER WASHINGTON/OREGON. THE MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON HOW THEY HAVE
THIS LOW MOVING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN HAS IT SITTING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATE THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. WHERE AS THE GFS HAS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVING
TOWARDS THE CWA. BRINGING WITH IT A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE STORMS ARE FORECASTED DUE TO FAIR BULK SHEAR VALUES...BUT THIS
COULD JUST BE A RAIN SHOWER EVENT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS THE
DAY APPROACHES AND MODELS START TO AGREE MORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
STRATUS WITH CIGS 1000-2000 FT CONTINUE EARLY THE TAF PERIOD OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT KMCK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO VFR.
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH ACTIVITY
RAPIDLY COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING. GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AT KMCK AND GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
LIGHT FOG (5-6SM) AND MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING AT KMCK BY SUNRISE.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...DR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1232 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
...Updated Short Term...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
Strong shortwave entering SW KS as of early afternoon. This
disturbance will bring an increase in clouds, and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon. An
increase in instability is expected this afternoon, with the most
unstable air favoring the NE counties. Stronger storms in this
region may produce marginally severe hail. Will need to monitor
the eastern zones this afternoon. HRRR runs develop more robust
convection along our eastern border by 4 pm, on the western
periphery of much greater instability. Feel most severe potential
will remain in WFO Wichita`s CWA, but it will be monitored.
Any convection will be diurnally driven, and diminish quickly
around sunset. A clearing sky expected overnight, with min
temperatures Tuesday morning ranging from the mid 40s NW to mid
50s SE.
Tuesday...Noticeably warmer. Short high pressure ridge axis passes
SW KS around sunrise, with SW flow aloft by afternoon. 850 mb
temperatures spike nicely, into the 20-25C range, which translates
into high temperatures well into the 80s. Some locales along the
Oklahoma border will achieve lower 90s. Winds will trend SE
through the afternoon in response to pressure falls and surface
cyclogenesis in SE Colorado. Strong closed low will be well north
of SW KS, in the Dakotas, by afternoon, while the associated cold
front approaches the NW zones late in the day. NAM/ECMWF both
suggest scattered convection developing ahead of this frontal
boundary across the NW zones around 4 pm Tuesday. Moisture will be
limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the 40s to near 50 at
best. CAPE may approach 1000 J/kg locally. Any convection across
the NW zones will be high-based, with the potential for downburst
wind gusts and small hail. SPC`s marginal 5% wind/hail outlook
that clips our northern zones looks plausible. Feel the marginal
wind/hail threat will extend down the cold front to include the
far SW counties as well, especially through Tuesday evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 9 2016
For Tuesday into Wednesday, another upper trough moves across the
Central Plains. Will carry 20 to 40 percent chances for showers and
thunderstorms with this wave, mainly on Wednesday morning, as a cold
front passes through. Highs warm into the mid to upper 80s ahead of
the front on Tuesday, then fall into the upper 60s to low 70s on
Wednesday.
For the period of Thursday into next Weekend, some minor chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be mainly east and southeast of Dodge
City as some waves in northwest flow aloft move across the region.
Another cold front moves across the Central Plains on Friday with
much cooler temps into the Weekend. Highs warm back into the 70s and
around 80 on Thursday and Friday ahead of the cold front, then cool
into the 60s for the Weekend. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
A strong shortwave entering SW KS at midday will spread broken
clouds and isolated to scattered -SHRA and -TSRA across SW KS
this afternoon through sunset. Any impacts to aviation should be
brief/temporary and only carried VCTS/CB in the 18z TAFs. Highest
instability forecasted to be near HYS, where a marginally severe
storm may develop near the airport through sunset. Convection will
rapidly diminish at sunset, with SKC overnight. Some west wind
gusts near 20 kts this afternoon away from any convection.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 79 51 85 53 / 20 10 10 20
GCK 77 49 84 50 / 30 10 20 30
EHA 77 50 86 49 / 20 0 10 20
LBL 80 48 87 52 / 20 0 10 10
HYS 78 52 80 52 / 30 20 30 50
P28 83 54 88 57 / 20 10 0 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Turner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
757 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMMONWEALTH...INCLUDING EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HAVE UPPED POPS AND INCLUDED SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO PULSE TOWARD SEVERE
CRITERIA. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE IN
DIAMETER REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. A STORM SYSTEM HAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN KY...ALREADY RESULTING IN MULTIPLE SEVERE AND TORNADO
WARNINGS. INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN KY HAS INCREASED WITH THE
LATEST NAM RUNS...WITH 2K J/KG EXPECTED BY 21Z. HOWEVER...HIGHEST
CAPE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS WEST OF THE CWA...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME LARGE HAIL MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA. FURTHERMORE STRONG LLVL WIND
SHEAR...WITH THE BULK OF THE SHEAR BELOW 4K FT...ALSO SHOWING A HIGH
POSSIBILITY FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. GIVEN THE
HISTORY OF THESE STORMS SO FAR...CAN ALSO EXPECT A LARGE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
HI RES MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME AGREEING ON THE SHORT
TERM...ESPECIALLY THE TRACK OF STORMS AS THEY HEAD INTO OUR REGION.
THIS MORNING THE HRRR INITIALIZED THE BEST...BUT DID NOT HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN KY. LATER ON...THE HI
RES ARW HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE DYING SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA AND
THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. IF THIS HELD TRUE IT SHOWED THE SYSTEM
COLD POOLING THEN DIVING SOUTHWARD...LIKELY ONLY CLIPPING OUR SW
COUNTIES. THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SEEMED TO COME INTO A SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE CURRENT CONVECTION TRAVELING ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER...WITH ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REACH NORTH CENTRAL KY AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 0
AND 6Z. BASED NEAR TERM POPS ON THIS IDEA...HOWEVER AM A BIT
CONCERNED THAT THIS IS A BIT SLOW...AS THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALREADY BE
EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AT THAT POINT.
SRLY WINDS AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
WHILE WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW DRY PERIODS...THE
WEATHER AS A WHOLE WILL REMAIN VERY UNSETTLED. THE PERIOD WILL
START AS A COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING ON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
FRONT SHOULD DEPART EARLY FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
RETURNING FOR FRIDAY. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. THE
QUESTION THEN TURNS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP
HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING
ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS ZONE...SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS
INTO NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING INTO POTENTIALLY EARLY TONIGHT. IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH ANY STORMS...WHILE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SATURATED LOW LEVELS REMAIN IN PLACE. MAY SEE
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING GREAT ENOUGH CHANCES/COVERAGE TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR UNDERNEATH THUNDERSTORMS WHERE MUCH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GUSEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
223 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
REMOVED THUNDER FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT LOOKING IMPRESSIVE. THE CHANCE OF ANYTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS LOOKS VERY MINIMAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
BLENDED MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITH NO SUBSTANTIVE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES IN TODAY AS VERY LIGHT
RETURNS ARE SEEN ON RADAR AND DRIFTING THIS WAY. THE KY MESONET
AND OTHER OBS INDICATE NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF A HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN FROM THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WX FOR THIS.
ALSO...TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING
BACK NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS PUSHING LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH AND OUT OF THE CWA...BUT LEAVING PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND...LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHOWERS. A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE HAS
SET UP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MANY LOW SPOTS IN
THE LOWER 50S WHILE RIDGES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...VARY FROM THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST
PARTS OF THE AREA TO THE UPPER 40S IN NORTHEAST. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT ENERGY PACKETS CROSSING KENTUCKY IN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A PLAINS LOW OPENS UP AND WORKS NORTHEAST. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST WILL PIVOT JUST
NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY DRAGGING LOWER HEIGHTS AND ITS
CORE ENERGY THROUGH THE STATE. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A TAD
STRONGER WITH THIS EVOLUTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER...THE
DIFFERENCE DOES NOT AFFECT ITS SOLUTION MUCH AND IT WILL BE LEANED
TOWARD AS A HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL OPTION FOR THE TUESDAY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...A GENERAL MODEL BLEND...AND FAVORING OF THE
HRRR EARLY ON...GUIDED THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE SUNSHINE.
LOOK FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. A
STRAY SHOWER OR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS
HAPPENS...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING MAINLY JUST NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN NEARER THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN AS THE EXPANSIVE SFC LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. FOR TUESDAY...EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE FIRMLY IN
THE LARGE SYSTEM/S WARM SECTOR. ACCORDINGLY...LOOK FOR INSTABILITY
TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY...FUELED BY INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. IN ADDITION...SOME WIND SHEER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL. IN FACT...SOME MCS
ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ALSO IMPACT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
SPC HAS OUTLINED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...
GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 75...FOR A SLIGHT RISK LATER TUESDAY.
THE REST OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
INITIALIZED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND FOR
MOST BASIC ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR RIDGE/VALLEY
TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS TO KEEP A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALBEIT
MOSTLY JUST SMALL CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES IN THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEP TROUGH TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH
WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING PIECES OF ENERGY TO
DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH EAST AND
FLATTEN OUT AS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS KENTUCKY RESUMES ALOFT BY MONDAY.
AT THE SFC...A SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THE FIRST LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WILL CROSS THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT LOW WILL CROSS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. RAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE BREIF PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE SHOULD BE
LOCALIZED AND VERY SHORT-LIVED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
124 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
BLENDED MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITH NO SUBSTANTIVE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES IN TODAY AS VERY LIGHT
RETURNS ARE SEEN ON RADAR AND DRIFTING THIS WAY. THE KY MESONET
AND OTHER OBS INDICATE NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF A HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN FROM THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WX FOR THIS.
ALSO...TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING
BACK NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS PUSHING LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH AND OUT OF THE CWA...BUT LEAVING PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND...LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHOWERS. A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE HAS
SET UP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MANY LOW SPOTS IN
THE LOWER 50S WHILE RIDGES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...VARY FROM THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST
PARTS OF THE AREA TO THE UPPER 40S IN NORTHEAST. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT ENERGY PACKETS CROSSING KENTUCKY IN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A PLAINS LOW OPENS UP AND WORKS NORTHEAST. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST WILL PIVOT JUST
NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY DRAGGING LOWER HEIGHTS AND ITS
CORE ENERGY THROUGH THE STATE. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A TAD
STRONGER WITH THIS EVOLUTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER...THE
DIFFERENCE DOES NOT AFFECT ITS SOLUTION MUCH AND IT WILL BE LEANED
TOWARD AS A HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL OPTION FOR THE TUESDAY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...A GENERAL MODEL BLEND...AND FAVORING OF THE
HRRR EARLY ON...GUIDED THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE SUNSHINE.
LOOK FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. A
STRAY SHOWER OR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS
HAPPENS...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING MAINLY JUST NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN NEARER THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN AS THE EXPANSIVE SFC LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. FOR TUESDAY...EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE FIRMLY IN
THE LARGE SYSTEM/S WARM SECTOR. ACCORDINGLY...LOOK FOR INSTABILITY
TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY...FUELED BY INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. IN ADDITION...SOME WIND SHEER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL. IN FACT...SOME MCS
ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ALSO IMPACT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
SPC HAS OUTLINED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...
GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 75...FOR A SLIGHT RISK LATER TUESDAY.
THE REST OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
INITIALIZED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND FOR
MOST BASIC ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR RIDGE/VALLEY
TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS TO KEEP A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALBEIT
MOSTLY JUST SMALL CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES IN THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEP TROUGH TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH
WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING PIECES OF ENERGY TO
DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH EAST AND
FLATTEN OUT AS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS KENTUCKY RESUMES ALOFT BY MONDAY.
AT THE SFC...A SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THE FIRST LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WILL CROSS THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT LOW WILL CROSS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. RAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE BREIF PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE SHOULD BE
LOCALIZED AND VERY SHORT-LIVED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1059 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
BLENDED MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITH NO SUBSTANTIVE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES IN TODAY AS VERY LIGHT
RETURNS ARE SEEN ON RADAR AND DRIFTING THIS WAY. THE KY MESONET
AND OTHER OBS INDICATE NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF A HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN FROM THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WX FOR THIS.
ALSO...TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING
BACK NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS PUSHING LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH AND OUT OF THE CWA...BUT LEAVING PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND...LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHOWERS. A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE HAS
SET UP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MANY LOW SPOTS IN
THE LOWER 50S WHILE RIDGES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...VARY FROM THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST
PARTS OF THE AREA TO THE UPPER 40S IN NORTHEAST. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT ENERGY PACKETS CROSSING KENTUCKY IN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A PLAINS LOW OPENS UP AND WORKS NORTHEAST. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST WILL PIVOT JUST
NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY DRAGGING LOWER HEIGHTS AND ITS
CORE ENERGY THROUGH THE STATE. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A TAD
STRONGER WITH THIS EVOLUTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER...THE
DIFFERENCE DOES NOT AFFECT ITS SOLUTION MUCH AND IT WILL BE LEANED
TOWARD AS A HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL OPTION FOR THE TUESDAY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...A GENERAL MODEL BLEND...AND FAVORING OF THE
HRRR EARLY ON...GUIDED THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE SUNSHINE.
LOOK FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. A
STRAY SHOWER OR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS
HAPPENS...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING MAINLY JUST NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN NEARER THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN AS THE EXPANSIVE SFC LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. FOR TUESDAY...EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE FIRMLY IN
THE LARGE SYSTEM/S WARM SECTOR. ACCORDINGLY...LOOK FOR INSTABILITY
TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY...FUELED BY INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. IN ADDITION...SOME WIND SHEER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL. IN FACT...SOME MCS
ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ALSO IMPACT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
SPC HAS OUTLINED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...
GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 75...FOR A SLIGHT RISK LATER TUESDAY.
THE REST OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
INITIALIZED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND FOR
MOST BASIC ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR RIDGE/VALLEY
TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS TO KEEP A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALBEIT
MOSTLY JUST SMALL CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES IN THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEP TROUGH TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH
WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING PIECES OF ENERGY TO
DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH EAST AND
FLATTEN OUT AS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS KENTUCKY RESUMES ALOFT BY MONDAY.
AT THE SFC...A SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THE FIRST LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WILL CROSS THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT LOW WILL CROSS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. RAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE BREIF PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA...ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND
VERY SHORT-LIVED. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED SMALL CHANCE FOR A
STRAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
750 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES IN TODAY AS VERY LIGHT
RETURNS ARE SEEN ON RADAR AND DRIFTING THIS WAY. THE KY MESONET
AND OTHER OBS INDICATE NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF A HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN FROM THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WX FOR THIS.
ALSO...TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING
BACK NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS PUSHING LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH AND OUT OF THE CWA...BUT LEAVING PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND...LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHOWERS. A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE HAS
SET UP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MANY LOW SPOTS IN
THE LOWER 50S WHILE RIDGES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...VARY FROM THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST
PARTS OF THE AREA TO THE UPPER 40S IN NORTHEAST. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT ENERGY PACKETS CROSSING KENTUCKY IN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A PLAINS LOW OPENS UP AND WORKS NORTHEAST. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST WILL PIVOT JUST
NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY DRAGGING LOWER HEIGHTS AND ITS
CORE ENERGY THROUGH THE STATE. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A TAD
STRONGER WITH THIS EVOLUTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER...THE
DIFFERENCE DOES NOT AFFECT ITS SOLUTION MUCH AND IT WILL BE LEANED
TOWARD AS A HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL OPTION FOR THE TUESDAY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...A GENERAL MODEL BLEND...AND FAVORING OF THE
HRRR EARLY ON...GUIDED THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE SUNSHINE.
LOOK FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. A
STRAY SHOWER OR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS
HAPPENS...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING MAINLY JUST NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN NEARER THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN AS THE EXPANSIVE SFC LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. FOR TUESDAY...EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE FIRMLY IN
THE LARGE SYSTEM/S WARM SECTOR. ACCORDINGLY...LOOK FOR INSTABILITY
TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY...FUELED BY INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. IN ADDITION...SOME WIND SHEER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL. IN FACT...SOME MCS
ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ALSO IMPACT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
SPC HAS OUTLINED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...
GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 75...FOR A SLIGHT RISK LATER TUESDAY.
THE REST OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
INITIALIZED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND FOR
MOST BASIC ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR RIDGE/VALLEY
TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS TO KEEP A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALBEIT
MOSTLY JUST SMALL CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES IN THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEP TROUGH TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH
WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING PIECES OF ENERGY TO
DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH EAST AND
FLATTEN OUT AS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS KENTUCKY RESUMES ALOFT BY MONDAY.
AT THE SFC...A SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THE FIRST LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WILL CROSS THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT LOW WILL CROSS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. RAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE BREIF PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA...ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND
VERY SHORT-LIVED. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED SMALL CHANCE FOR A
STRAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
335 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING
BACK NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS PUSHING LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH AND OUT OF THE CWA...BUT LEAVING PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND...LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHOWERS. A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE HAS
SET UP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MANY LOW SPOTS IN
THE LOWER 50S WHILE RIDGES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...VARY FROM THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST
PARTS OF THE AREA TO THE UPPER 40S IN NORTHEAST. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT ENERGY PACKETS CROSSING KENTUCKY IN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A PLAINS LOW OPENS UP AND WORKS NORTHEAST. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST WILL PIVOT JUST
NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY DRAGGING LOWER HEIGHTS AND ITS
CORE ENERGY THROUGH THE STATE. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A TAD
STRONGER WITH THIS EVOLUTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER...THE
DIFFERENCE DOES NOT AFFECT ITS SOLUTION MUCH AND IT WILL BE LEANED
TOWARD AS A HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL OPTION FOR THE TUESDAY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...A GENERAL MODEL BLEND...AND FAVORING OF THE
HRRR EARLY ON...GUIDED THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE SUNSHINE.
LOOK FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. A
STRAY SHOWER OR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS
HAPPENS...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING MAINLY JUST NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN NEARER THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN AS THE EXPANSIVE SFC LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. FOR TUESDAY...EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE FIRMLY IN
THE LARGE SYSTEM/S WARM SECTOR. ACCORDINGLY...LOOK FOR INSTABILITY
TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY...FUELED BY INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. IN ADDITION...SOME WIND SHEER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL. IN FACT...SOME MCS
ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ALSO IMPACT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
SPC HAS OUTLINED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...
GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 75...FOR A SLIGHT RISK LATER TUESDAY.
THE REST OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
INITIALIZED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND FOR
MOST BASIC ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR RIDGE/VALLEY
TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS TO KEEP A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALBEIT
MOSTLY JUST SMALL CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES IN THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEP TROUGH TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH
WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING PIECES OF ENERGY TO
DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH EAST AND
FLATTEN OUT AS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS KENTUCKY RESUMES ALOFT BY MONDAY.
AT THE SFC...A SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THE FIRST LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WILL CROSS THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT LOW WILL CROSS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. RAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE BREIF PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 DURING THE REST OF
THE NIGHT...ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND
SHORT-LIVED. SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS REVOLVE AROUND PATCHY FOG
THROUGH DAWN. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR STRAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH ON
MONDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
328 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon May 9 2016
Over the next few days, there will be several chances for showers
and thunderstorms over central KY and south-central IN. However,
delineating exact timing, coverage, and intensity of convection is
a bit tenuous given much mesoscale influence expected to convective
evolution. Nevertheless, synoptically a mean mid-level trough axis
over the Rockies will push eastward today and Tuesday across the
Plains and mid MS Valley, eventually through the OH Valley. Episodic
convection with this feature will lay out various boundaries and
cloud shields that will dictate daily destabilization and ultimate
convective development.
For today, it will be mostly cloudy as a mid/upper-level moisture
stream flows northeast across our area. Meanwhile, a weak frontal
boundary over KY will lift north putting us into the warm sector.
The 00z operational models, including the high-res HRRR and WRF NMM
suggest that scattered showers will move northeast across the north
and west portions of our forecast area today. Highest POPs (still in
chance/scattered category) will be over west-central KY though south-
central IN today, with lowest chances in eastern parts of south-
central KY. Rainfall amounts should be less than a quarter inch.
By late today and tonight, models suggest a lull in precip with just
debris clouds streaming northeast. However, a line of strong to
severe convection (QLCS) will develop over parts of the lower to mid
MS Valley late today and move northeast into the lower OH Valley
late tonight/Tuesday morning supported by a negative-tilted trough
aloft. Nevertheless, models suggest convection will be weakening as
it enters our forecast area. POPs in grids have been adjusted to
account for these latest expected trends tonight/Tuesday morning.
On Tuesday, any morning activity should push through with some
afternoon sunshine and cool air aloft resulting in steepening lower
and mid-level lapse rates and at least moderate instability. The
main question will be amount of debris clouds leftover from the
morning (depicted most by the NAM) which could limit instability.
However, general consensus is that robust destabilization will occur
in the afternoon. In addition, shear profiles are not bad with a
south surface wind veering to 50-60 kts at 300 mb. While organized
forcing is a bit tenuous at this time, scattered to numerous
convective development appears probably Tuesday afternoon or
evening, some some strong to severe cells that could produce wind
damage and hail.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon May 9 2016
...More chances for thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday...
The weather pattern will continue active during the mid week period
with pretty good model agreement/consensus on the synoptic pattern.
A possible mesoscale convective system late Tuesday/Tuesday night
will have moved to our east by Wednesday. In its wake, a flat mid-
level ridge axis will progress across the OH Valley. This will lead
to some sunshine and potentially moderate to strong instability
during the afternoon as surface temperatures warm into the lower to
mid 80s, and surface dewpoints increase into the lower and mid 60s.
Forcing for convection, however, appears somewhat weak during the
day, with more of a pulse storm situation, i.e., isolated to
scattered cells that could be strong with locally gusty winds.
For late Wednesday night and especially Thursday, another trough
axis aloft will approach the OH Valley, with potential for more
organized convection. Models do show timing differences, but agree
on the convective signal. A QLCS will be possible during this
period.
Rainfall amounts from Tuesday through Thursday will vary
significantly depending on convective evolution each day, and
whether cells propagate over the same areas. Overall, 1-2 inches are
possible, although local amounts around 3 inches are in play if
episodic convection trains over similar locations.
Drier air will finally move into the area Friday as the flow aloft
becomes northwesterly. This will be short-lived, however, as a
digging shortwave in the flow brings another chance of showers about
Saturday with additional showers possible again late next weekend.
High temperatures late next week (Friday) through next weekend will
be cooler in the lower 70s Friday and perhaps only in the 60s next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 125 AM EDT Mon May 9 2016
Complicated upper level pattern in place over the U.S. is making
timing of precipitation even in the first 24 hours difficult. A
short wave swinging around Low pressure centered over the Rockies
will move through the Ohio River Valley today, but model guidance
varies greatly on whether or not this could bring showers to the
three TAF sites during the daylight hours today. There is better
agreement on convection just beyond the 24-hr TAF time frame -
in the outlook period for KSDF.
With surface high pressure over West Virginia still dominating the
low-level flow at 05Z, surface winds were still from the east,
though were beginning to work their way around to the south, helping
to usher in higher dewpoints in advance of the short wave which
would aid convection. Given model uncertainty, lack of ongoing
convection, and relatively minimal lower level moisture field, will
only go VCSH today, and keep CIGS at or above 050. As mentioned
above, winds will swing around to south, generally under 10 kt, but
possibly with some gusts to around 15kt.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........TWF
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........JBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
215 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ADD IN THE LATEST CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR
T/TD/WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED THESE FOR
THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THE MAIN THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HAS
LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA SO POPS AND WX WERE UPDATED...AS WELL.
THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1053 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY. ENOUGH MOISTURE COUPLED
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THIS AREA...SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION FOR
NOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMAL IF ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
A WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE JKL
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AS YOU HEADED NORTH OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAD
EXITED TO THE NORTHEAST.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE WARM FRONT
WILL VERY SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD...EXITING NORTH OF THE JKL
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALOFT...WEAK RIDGING IS MOVING
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN
WEAKER WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE RIDGE...COUPLED WITH THE
BROADER AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW
MORE SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA AT TIMES. THE
FIRST OF THESE WAVES PASSES THIS EVENING...AND THE NEXT ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND A MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES FROM THE WEST. AT THE SAME
TIME...BETTER INFLOW FROM THE GULF ALSO STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS TO START MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAYTIME.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED. THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO HAVE ACROSS THE
MS AND OH VALLEY REGIONS IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS
THE CURRENT ROCKIES CLOSED LOW INTERACTS WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE FIRST OF THE
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
BEHIND IT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE THE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
INTO THE PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF A
CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A RIDGE
BRIEFLY AMPLIFIES FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES BY THU AND
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED OVER
NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...A BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION SHOULD LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...PUTTING THE REGION IN WARM SECTOR OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOW MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY REGIONS.
THIS LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AND SEND A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
THU INTO THU EVENING. A SECONDARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
IN NW FLOW SHOULD APPROACH TO START THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
BOUNDARY LIKELY SETTLING SOUTH OF THE AREA TO END THE WEEKEND.
RATHER HIGH POPS WERE USED FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY SHOULD LEAD TO BETTER
FORCING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. A DIURNAL TREND IN POPS WAS
USED ON WED DURING PEAK HEATING...HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD MAY COME ON THU INTO THU EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE CONSENSUS FOR NOW IS THAT
MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE BULK OF FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE WEEKEND ON FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES IN NW TO W FLOW ALOFT AS THE
PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A ZONAL NATURE TO END THE PERIOD COULD
PROLONG THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE DEPARTING BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTH.
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THAT MATERIALIZES WILL DETERMINE
THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION WHEN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS BEST ON
TUE INTO TUE EVENING AND AGAIN ON THU. MOISTURE AND HEATING COULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR CAPE TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG ON TUE AFTERNOON AND
OR EVENING WITH LI POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS -2C TO -4C. WINDS ALOFT
ARE NOT INCREDIBLY STRONG SO SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF
THE ORDINARY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM MON NIGHT CONVECTION MAY LIMIT HEATING ON TUESDAY.
THE SAME MAY HAPPEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD
AS CLOUD COVER AND RATHER MOIST ATMOSPHERE LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGES.TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL TO END THE
PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 DURING THE REST OF
THE NIGHT...ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND
SHORT-LIVED. SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS REVOLVE AROUND PATCHY FOG
THROUGH DAWN. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR STRAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH ON
MONDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
132 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Mon May 9 2016
Over the next few days, there will be several chances for showers
and thunderstorms over central KY and south-central IN. However,
delineating exact timing, coverage, location, and intensity of
convection is difficult given much mesoscale influence expected to
convective evolution. Synoptically, a mean mid-level trough axis
over the Rockies will push eastward today and Tuesday across the
Plains and mid MS Valley, eventually through the OH Valley. Episodic
convection will this feature will lay out various boundaries and
cloud shields that will dictate daily destabilization and ultimate
convective development.
Trying to delineate daily tendencies, today appears to be mostly
cloudy as debris clouds from convection to our west streams across
the area. At the same time, a weak frontal boundary over KY will
lift north putting our area into the warm sector. The GFS and NAM
hint that scattered showers and embedded thunder may develop later
this morning and move northeast across the north and west portions
of our forecast area today. This is supported most by the HRRR and
WRF NMM models, although not much shows up at this time in the
source region of where these models develop the showers.
Nevertheless, will retain highest POPs (scattered) over west-central
KY to south-central IN today. Rainfall amounts should be mainly less
than a quarter inch where rain occurs.
After this activity passes, high-resolution models suggest a lull in
precip this evening/tonight with just debris clouds streaming
northeast. However, these same models suggest a line of strong to
severe convection (QLCS) will develop over parts of the lower to mid
MS Valley late today and move northeast into the lower OH Valley
late tonight/Tuesday morning supported by the trough axis aloft,
albeit convection will be weakening as it enters our forecast area.
POPs in our current grid forecast appear too high too quickly
tonight, so have trimmed them back, with highest values Tuesday
morning.
On Tuesday, any morning activity should push through with some
afternoon sunshine and cool air aloft resulting in steepening lower
and mid-level lapse rates resulting in moderate instability.
GFSismore emphatic with this scenario than the NAM which keeps more
clouds and less destabilization over our area. Organized forcing is
a bit tenuous at this time, but scattered convection, some strong if
enough destabilization can occur, is possible late Tuesday
afternoon/evening.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun May 8 2016
An area of showers and storms will be ongoing across the region on
Tuesday morning. These storms look to weaken and push east through
the morning hours. The upper level wave will continue to slowly push
into the lower Ohio Valley through the day Tuesday and will move
east of the area by Wednesday morning. Another round of storms is
expected to fire up to the west in the afternoon and move through
during the afternoon to evening hours. The question with this
activity will be the severe potential. Soundings show 1000-1500 J/kg
of CAPE developing with wind shear increasing in the afternoon and
evening. Some strong to severe storms are not out of the question.
However, this will be complicated by earlier convection and if
clouds clear during the afternoon. Still, the system bears watching
over the next couple of days.
Wednesday the area looks to be in the warm sector and scattered
thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon.
There will then be another chance for storms Wednesday night into
Thursday morning as a cold front sweeps through. Behind this front
ridging will build in bringing a brief respite from the rounds of
showers and storms. All in all 1-2 inches of rain with locally
higher amounts can be expected this week.
After the brief break on Friday another wave will bring some rain to
the area late Friday night into early Friday morning.
Temperatures will be on the warmer side in the mid 70s to lower 80s
through Thursday. We will then have cooler air build in behind the
front with highs Friday through the weekend in the mid 60s to lower
70s.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 125 AM EDT Mon May 9 2016
Complicated upper level pattern in place over the U.S. is making
timing of precipitation even in the first 24 hours difficult. A
short wave swinging around Low pressure centered over the Rockies
will move through the Ohio River Valley today, but model guidance
varies greatly on whether or not this could bring showers to the
three TAF sites during the daylight hours today. There is better
agreement on convection just beyond the 24-hr TAF time frame -
in the outlook period for KSDF.
With surface high pressure over West Virginia still dominating the
low-level flow at 05Z, surface winds were still from the east,
though were beginning to work their way around to the south, helping
to usher in higher dewpoints in advance of the short wave which
would aid convection. Given model uncertainty, lack of ongoing
convection, and relatively minimal lower level moisture field, will
only go VCSH today, and keep CIGS at or above 050. As mentioned
above, winds will swing around to south, generally under 10 kt, but
possibly with some gusts to around 15kt.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........EER
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........JBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1001 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
SLY WINDS 5-10 MPH CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. THIS HAS ALSO ALLOWED FOR LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD INLAND ACRS
SE TX AND EXTREME SW LA...WHILE HIGH CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE
REGION FM THE WEST. NO CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON KLCH 88D
IN THE CWA...BUT A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS CNTL TX CONTINUES TO
MARCH EAST. RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES OUR WRN ZONES BUT COULD HOLD TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED
POPS/WX TO REFLECT THIS TREND WHILE MAKING MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS TO BRING IN LINE WITH RECENT OBS.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BPT HAVING MVFR CEILINGS...VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN THIS EVENING...EXPECTING TO PREVAIL
AREAWIDE BY 06Z. S TO SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
WELL...WITH A GRADUALLY LOWERING TO INTERMITTENT IFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 10-14Z FOR BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO SCT OUT
AFTER 15Z WITH THE INCREASE OF SE TO S WINDS ~12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
OVER 20 KTS.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DEPICTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU OVER THE
AREA. ALL MID AND UPPER CLOUDINESS HAS NOW EXITED THE AREA.
SOMEWHAT BREEZY SOUTHERLIES ONGOING BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND SOUTH PLAINS LOW. STILL
CONSIDERABLY LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY. OVERALL...A VERY PLEASANT
DAY ONGOING WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE THE NORM. VERY
SIMILAR DAY AHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY.
BEGIN THE INTRODUCTION OF RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY. MID-UPPER LOW
NOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN MONTANA PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS TO
TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AND THEN FURTHER EAST. ACCOMPANYING TROFFING
ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH
FEATURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ADVANCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAKING FOR A VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND.
MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-WEEK. A COLD FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTHERLIES WILL FOLLOW ITS PASSAGE.
23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 70 87 70 87 / 10 10 0 30
LCH 73 83 72 85 / 10 0 10 20
LFT 72 85 72 86 / 10 10 10 20
BPT 74 84 73 84 / 20 0 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1242 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR GENERALLY PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. FCST SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHTS
DEPICT CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE THE DRY LAYER PRESENT ON THE
KLCH MORNING RAOB...WITH EVENTUAL MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT ALL
TERMINALS...LARGELY IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO
PREVAIL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING THIS EVENING AS AT
LEAST SOME DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE AND WINDS OFF THE SFC VEER MORE
TWD THE SOUTHWEST. PROGS INDICATE MOST SITES SHOULD LOWER BUT
REMAIN IN MVFR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAEX WHERE A
TEMPO IFR WAS USED.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...WINDY AFTERNOON AHEAD AS AREA REMAINS BETWEEN
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED
SOMEWHAT AS WAKE LOW ADVANCES EAST FROM COASTAL TEXAS.
OTHERWISE...RADAR SHOWING NO MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES
INLAND...POSSIBLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
THIS ACTIVITY ALIGNED ALONG A VORT LOBE AND EMBEDDED VORT MAXIMA.
ACTIVITY PROGGED TO ADVANCE EAST BY THE HRRR WITH LITTLE IF ANY
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING MID-TEXAS DRYLINE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
SATELLITE SHOWING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...WEATHER DEPICTION ANALYSIS SHOWS LOWER CLOUDS
RATHER SPARSE AT THE MOMENT. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...MVFR CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. EVENTUALLY BY 01Z...ALL TAF
SITES WILL BE MVFR. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER AREA THIS MORNING
BUT RAIN CHANCES LOOKING SPARSE AS MOISTURE SOUNDING REMAINS ON THE
LOWER SIDE THIS MORNING AND IN LINE WITH LAST EVENING SOUNDING RUN.
DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FL MAINTAINING A SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND
MAINTAINS A GOOD GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE NRN PLAINS WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ROUNDING IT...THE MOST A SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH IS
CROSSING THE 4-CORNERS REGION ATTM. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RETURNS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE WRN
ZONES...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ON 00Z KLCH SOUNDING
EXPECT LITTLE OF THE LIGHTER RETURNS TO ACTUALLY BE REACHING THE
GROUND. A FEW BURSTS OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ARE NOTED UPSTREAM
AND WITHIN HERE IS WHERE SOME RAIN IS FALLING PER SFC OBS.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE
FORECAST AREA THANKS TO THE COMBO OF INCREASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES WHERE THE MID-LEVEL SPEED
MAX AND AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET ARE PROGGED TO MOST IMPACT...
WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE OPENS
UP AND LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION.
ALSO OF INTEREST TODAY IS THE INHERITED WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SRN
1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST WIND PROGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 20 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30. THEREFORE THE ADVISORY
HAS BEEN LEFT UNCHANGED ATTM. THE DAYSHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS NORTH OF THE ADVISORY IN CASE IT NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED
SPATIALLY LATER TODAY TO ACCOUNT.
AFTER ANOTHER SLIM SHOT AT PRECIP ON TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...NEXT REASONABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS DEEP TROFFING DEVELOPS OVER THE CNTL
CONUS AND IN TURN PULLS A COOL FRONT SWD INTO THE AREA. THEREAFTER
A BRIEF SHOT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND THE INTRUSION OF SOME DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...
MAINTAINED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MUCH OF TODAY GIVEN SRLY FLOW STILL EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 83 72 86 70 / 20 20 20 10
LCH 81 72 82 71 / 30 20 10 10
LFT 81 73 83 72 / 20 20 10 10
BPT 82 72 84 71 / 40 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ041>045-
052>055-073-074.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ215-216.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ430-432-
435-455-475.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR GMZ455-475.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT
CDT TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-470-472.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-470-472.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1102 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...WINDY AFTERNOON AHEAD AS AREA REMAINS BETWEEN
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED
SOMEWHAT AS WAKE LOW ADVANCES EAST FROM COASTAL TEXAS.
OTHERWISE...RADAR SHOWING NO MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES
INLAND...POSSIBLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
THIS ACTIVITY ALIGNED ALONG A VORT LOBE AND EMBEDDED VORT MAXIMA.
ACTIVITY PROGGED TO ADVANCE EAST BY THE HRRR WITH LITTLE IF ANY
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING MID-TEXAS DRYLINE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
SATELLITE SHOWING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...WEATHER DEPICTION ANALYSIS SHOWS LOWER CLOUDS
RATHER SPARSE AT THE MOMENT. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...MVFR CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. EVENTUALLY BY 01Z...ALL TAF
SITES WILL BE MVFR. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER AREA THIS MORNING
BUT RAIN CHANCES LOOKING SPARSE AS MOISTURE SOUNDING REMAINS ON THE
LOWER SIDE THIS MORNING AND IN LINE WITH LAST EVENING SOUNDING RUN.
DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FL MAINTAINING A SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND
MAINTAINS A GOOD GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE NRN PLAINS WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ROUNDING IT...THE MOST A SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH IS
CROSSING THE 4-CORNERS REGION ATTM. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RETURNS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE WRN
ZONES...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ON 00Z KLCH SOUNDING
EXPECT LITTLE OF THE LIGHTER RETURNS TO ACTUALLY BE REACHING THE
GROUND. A FEW BURSTS OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ARE NOTED UPSTREAM
AND WITHIN HERE IS WHERE SOME RAIN IS FALLING PER SFC OBS.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE
FORECAST AREA THANKS TO THE COMBO OF INCREASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES WHERE THE MID-LEVEL SPEED
MAX AND AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET ARE PROGGED TO MOST IMPACT...
WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE OPENS
UP AND LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION.
ALSO OF INTEREST TODAY IS THE INHERITED WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SRN
1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST WIND PROGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 20 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30. THEREFORE THE ADVISORY
HAS BEEN LEFT UNCHANGED ATTM. THE DAYSHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS NORTH OF THE ADVISORY IN CASE IT NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED
SPATIALLY LATER TODAY TO ACCOUNT.
AFTER ANOTHER SLIM SHOT AT PRECIP ON TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...NEXT REASONABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS DEEP TROFFING DEVELOPS OVER THE CNTL
CONUS AND IN TURN PULLS A COOL FRONT SWD INTO THE AREA. THEREAFTER
A BRIEF SHOT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND THE INTRUSION OF SOME DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...
MAINTAINED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MUCH OF TODAY GIVEN SRLY FLOW STILL EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 83 72 86 70 / 20 20 20 10
LCH 81 72 82 71 / 30 20 10 10
LFT 81 73 83 72 / 20 20 10 10
BPT 82 72 84 71 / 40 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ041>045-
052>055-073-074.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ215-216.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-
455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR GMZ455-475.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-470-472.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ430-432-435.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
656 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG CLOSED VORTEX SWINGING
FROM QC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TO THE WEST, CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY
PULLING EAST ACROSS THE TN VLY AND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW LOW LEVEL QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM SOUTHEAST NE, ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHERN NC....TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT.
NOTING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...INCLUDING SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER...ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL NC
COASTAL PLAIN. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE, SOME SHOWERS JUST STARTING TO SPILL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRE-FRONTAL WAA.
ONGOING SHRAS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY JUST AFTER DAYBREAK, LEAVING
SEVERAL SUBTLE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE EVENTUAL
ORIENTATION OF THOSE BOUNDARIES WILL EVENTUALLY DETERMINE LOCATION
OF GREATEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FOR TODAY, WE`LL BE OFF TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY START ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KY/NC WILL LIFT NORTH SLIGHTLY, WITH
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR AREA GETTING WARM SECTORED. 00Z/9
PROBABILISTIC MODELS AND CAMS, INCLUDING THE LAST FEW ITERATIONS
OF THE HIGH-RES HRRR AND SPC WRF ALL INDICATE STRONG SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
ACCORDINGLY, HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FAR NRN TIER.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO
EXACT LOCATION OF AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. HIGHS
70-75 WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S SOUTH
WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. WAA AT
H85 AHEAD OF IT RESULTS IN CHC SHOWERS MOST AREAS. LOWS IN THE
L-M50S NORTH...U50S-L60S SOUTH.
FRONT PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION TUES THROUGH WED. GIVEN
A NW FLOW AND MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...KEPT CHC POPS IN FCST
EACH DAY. SEVERAL WAVES ALONG THE BNDRY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
TIME PCPN. MAINTAINING CHC POPS EACH PERIOD WITH DIURNAL THUNDER
CHCS. AGAIN...HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON BNDRY LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
SUN. DID DROP TEMPS 1-2 CATEGORIES ACROSS THE FAR NE (MD EASTERN
SHORE) WITH COOL SECTOR NE FLOW APPEARING LKLY TO SET UP FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S FAR NE...70-75 ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ZONES...U70S- L80S IN AREAS ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
THE SOUTH. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE N50S- L60S.
BOUNDARY WILL BISECT THE LOCAL AREA FROM NW TO SE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE IN THE DAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WED AFTN/EVE. GIVEN PROGGED LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY, HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC POP OVER THE NE COAST, WITH
A HIGH END CHC POP IN PLACE WELL INLAND TO I-95. MUCH TOO EARLY
TO GET INTO DETAILS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH SO MUCH SUBJECT TO
CHANGE, BUT WITH 0-6 BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KT AND W/BROAD SCALE
FORCING MECHANISM PRESENT, WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SEVERE
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY OVER THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS AGAIN VARIABLE
WITH EXACT BOUNDARY LOCATION...BUT WILL RANGE FROM 70S TO L80S
FAR SW TO U60S/L70S FAR NE ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR PCPN AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY WILL STILL BE IN THE
VICINITY WED NGT/THU...LEADING TO A 30-50% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS.
HI TEMPS THU WILL RANGE FM THE MID 70S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO
THE LO 80S SRN AREAS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE W THU
NGT...AND CROSSES THE AREA BY FRI. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
(50% POPS) WITH THIS FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S FRI. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
LEADING TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH HI TEMPS STILL MAINLY IN
THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NC. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 10K FT AGL. WINDS CALM TO LIGHT
OUT OF THE S-SE. THE FRONT LIFTS NWD NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...BECOMING BKN-LOCALLY OVC 8-12K FT AGL.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MID/LATE MORNING
KSBY...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT...BUT
DIRECTIONS VARY FROM S-SE TO NE DEPENDING ON THE FRONTAL
PLACEMENT.
THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION THRU
MID WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS EACH DAY. LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. THE RESULT IS LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS
2-3 FT. A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NC SLOWLY DRIFTS NWD OVER
THE WATERS TODAY...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY BTWN NELY AND
SWLY...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. WAVES 1-2 FT AND
SEAS2-3 FT. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT FRI...WITH SLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS. A COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
427 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG CLOSED VORTEX SWINGING
FROM QC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TO THE WEST, CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY
PULLING EAST ACROSS THE TN VLY AND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW LOW LEVEL QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM SOUTHEAST NE, ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHERN NC....TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT.
NOTING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...INCLUDING SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER...ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL NC
COASTAL PLAIN. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE, SOME SHOWERS JUST STARTING TO SPILL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRE-FRONTAL WAA.
ONGOING SHRAS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY JUST AFTER DAYBREAK, LEAVING
SEVERAL SUBTLE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE EVENTUAL
ORIENTATION OF THOSE BOUNDARIES WILL EVENTUALLY DETERMINE LOCATION
OF GREATEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FOR TODAY, WE`LL BE OFF TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY START ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KY/NC WILL LIFT NORTH SLIGHTLY, WITH
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR AREA GETTING WARM SECTORED. 00Z/9
PROBABILISTIC MODELS AND CAMS, INCLUDING THE LAST FEW ITERATIONS
OF THE HIGH-RES HRRR AND SPC WRF ALL INDICATE STRONG SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
ACCORDINGLY, HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FAR NRN TIER.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO
EXACT LOCATION OF AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. HIGHS
70-75 WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S SOUTH
WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. WAA AT
H85 AHEAD OF IT RESULTS IN CHC SHOWERS MOST AREAS. LOWS IN THE
L-M50S NORTH...U50S-L60S SOUTH.
FRONT PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION TUES THROUGH WED. GIVEN
A NW FLOW AND MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...KEPT CHC POPS IN FCST
EACH DAY. SEVERAL WAVES ALONG THE BNDRY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
TIME PCPN. MAINTAINING CHC POPS EACH PERIOD WITH DIURNAL THUNDER
CHCS. AGAIN...HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON BNDRY LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
SUN. DID DROP TEMPS 1-2 CATEGORIES ACROSS THE FAR NE (MD EASTERN
SHORE) WITH COOL SECTOR NE FLOW APPEARING LKLY TO SET UP FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S FAR NE...70-75 ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ZONES...U70S- L80S IN AREAS ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
THE SOUTH. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE N50S- L60S.
BOUNDARY WILL BISECT THE LOCAL AREA FROM NW TO SE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE IN THE DAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WED AFTN/EVE. GIVEN PROGGED LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY, HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC POP OVER THE NE COAST, WITH
A HIGH END CHC POP IN PLACE WELL INLAND TO I-95. MUCH TOO EARLY
TO GET INTO DETAILS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH SO MUCH SUBJECT TO
CHANGE, BUT WITH 0-6 BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KT AND W/BROAD SCALE
FORCING MECHANISM PRESENT, WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SEVERE
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY OVER THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS AGAIN VARIABLE
WITH EXACT BOUNDARY LOCATION...BUT WILL RANGE FROM 70S TO L80S
FAR SW TO U60S/L70S FAR NE ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR PCPN AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY WILL STILL BE IN THE
VICINITY WED NGT/THU...LEADING TO A 30-50% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS.
HI TEMPS THU WILL RANGE FM THE MID 70S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO
THE LO 80S SRN AREAS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE W THU
NGT...AND CROSSES THE AREA BY FRI. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
(50% POPS) WITH THIS FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S FRI. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
LEADING TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH HI TEMPS STILL MAINLY IN
THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NC. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 12K FT AGL. WINDS CALM
TO LIGHT OUT OF THE S-SW.
FOR TODAY...THE FRONT LIFTS NWD NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST...BECOMING BKN-LOCALLY OVC 8-12K FT AGL. WINDS
REMAIN AOB 10 KT...BUT DIRECTIONS BECOME VARIABLE DUE TO THE WEAK
BOUNDARY.
THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION THRU
MID WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS EACH DAY. LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. THE RESULT IS LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS
2-3 FT. A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NC SLOWLY DRIFTS NWD OVER
THE WATERS TODAY...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY BTWN NELY AND
SWLY...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. WAVES 1-2 FT AND
SEAS2-3 FT. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT FRI...WITH SLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS. A COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
411 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG CLOSED VORTEX SWINGING
FROM QC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TO THE WEST, CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY
PULLING EAST ACROSS THE TN VLY AND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW LOW LEVEL QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM SOUTHEAST NE, ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHERN NC....TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT.
NOTING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...INCLUDING SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER...ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL NC
COASTAL PLAIN. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE, SOME SHOWERS JUST STARTING TO SPILL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRE-FRONTAL WAA.
ONGOING SHRAS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY JUST AFTER DAYBREAK, LEAVING
SEVERAL SUBTLE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE EVENTUAL
ORIENTATION OF THOSE BOUNDARIES WILL EVENTUALLY DETERMINE LOCATION
OF GREATEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FOR TODAY, WE`LL BE OFF TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY START ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KY/NC WILL LIFT NORTH SLIGHTLY, WITH
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR AREA GETTING WARM SECTORED. 00Z/9
PROBABILISTIC MODELS AND CAMS, INCLUDING THE LAST FEW ITERATIONS
OF THE HIGH-RES HRRR AND SPC WRF ALL INDICATE STRONG SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
ACCORDINGLY, HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FAR NRN TIER.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO
EXACT LOCATION OF AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. HIGHS
70-75 WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S SOUTH
WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. WAA AT
H85 AHEAD OF IT RESULTS IN CHC SHOWERS MOST AREAS. LOWS IN THE
L-M50S NORTH...U50S-L60S SOUTH.
FRONT PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION TUES THROUGH WED. GIVEN
A NW FLOW AND MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...KEPT CHC POPS IN FCST
EACH DAY. SEVERAL WAVES ALONG THE BNDRY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
TIME PCPN. MAINTAINING CHC POPS EACH PERIOD WITH DIURNAL THUNDER
CHCS. AGAIN...HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON BNDRY LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
SUN. DID DROP TEMPS 1-2 CATEGORIES ACROSS THE FAR NE (MD EASTERN
SHORE) WITH COOL SECTOR NE FLOW APPEARING LKLY TO SET UP FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S FAR NE...70-75 ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ZONES...U70S- L80S IN AREAS ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
THE SOUTH. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE N50S- L60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR PCPN AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY WILL STILL BE IN THE
VICINITY WED NGT/THU...LEADING TO A 30-50% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS. HI
TEMPS THU WILL RANGE FM THE MID 70S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE LO
80S SRN AREAS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE W THU NGT...AND
CROSSES THE AREA BY FRI. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN (50% POPS)
WITH THIS FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S FRI. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH HI TEMPS STILL MAINLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NC. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 12K FT AGL. WINDS CALM
TO LIGHT OUT OF THE S-SW.
FOR TODAY...THE FRONT LIFTS NWD NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST...BECOMING BKN-LOCALLY OVC 8-12K FT AGL. WINDS
REMAIN AOB 10 KT...BUT DIRECTIONS BECOME VARIABLE DUE TO THE WEAK
BOUNDARY.
THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION THRU
MID WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS EACH DAY. LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. THE RESULT IS LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS
2-3 FT. A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NC SLOWLY DRIFTS NWD OVER
THE WATERS TODAY...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY BTWN NELY AND
SWLY...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. WAVES 1-2 FT AND
SEAS2-3 FT. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT FRI...WITH SLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS. A COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
743 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
12Z RAOBS AND LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A BLOCKY UPR
AIR PATTERN OVER NAMERICA. A BLDG UPR RDG EXTENDS FM NW ONTARIO INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS AND IS SITUATED BTWN A CLOSED LO OVER THE CNDN
MARITIMES AND ANOTHER CLOSED LO OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. ANOTHER SHRTWV
IS SLIDING ENE THRU THE MID/UPR MS RIVER VALLEY BUT IS WEAKENING
WITH TIME AS IT LIFTS INTO THE EXPANDING UPR RDG. BUT THERE IS A
GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER RELATED TO A VERY
MOIST 12Z GRB SDNG /PWAT 1.12 INCH/. BUT VERY DRY AIR NOTED JUST TO
THE NE ON THE 12Z APX RAOB /PWAT 0.16 INCH/ IS PROVIDING A SHARP NRN
EDGE TO THE CLD COVER AND THE PCPN EXPANSION. UNDER SHARP PRES
GRADIENT BTWN SFC HUDSON BAY HI PRES AND WEAKENING SFC LO PRES TROF
APRCHG FM THE SW...GUSTY SE WINDS HAVE REACHED 30 MPH AT SOME
PLACES...ACCENTUATING FIRE WX DANGER AS SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL
INTO THE 60S AND RH HAS DROPPED AOB 20 PCT AWAY FM THE CLOUDY AREAS
WITH DAYTIME MIXING.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT INTO WED FOCUS ON CLD TRENDS/POPS AND TEMPS.
FORTUNATELY...WED WL FEATURE MOISTER LLVL AIR/WEAKER WINDS...SO FIRE
WX CONCERNS WL BE REDUCED.
TNGT...APRCHG SHRTWV TO THE SW IS FCST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...ALONG
WITH ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR FORCING. DEEPER RH IS FCST TO INCRS SLOWLY
OVER MAINLY THE SW PORTION OF UPR MI. BUT WITH MINIMAL DEEP LYR
FORCING AND LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR...EXPECT NO MORE THAN SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS IN SOME PLACES NEAR THE WI BORDER/WRN LK SUP. THE
NE PORTION OF UPR MI WL BE CLOSER TO THE HUDSON BAY HI PRES/SLOWLY
RETREATING DRY AIRMASS AND REMAIN MOCLR. MIN TEMPS WL BE LOWEST IN
THIS AREA...FALLING INTO THE 30S EVEN THOUGH A STEADY ESE WIND WL
PERSIST UNDER THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE HUDSON BAY HI AND LOWER MSLP
TO THE SW.
WED...ALTHOUGH THE SHRTWV TO THE SW WL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT...
DEEPER MSTR IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD ALL OF UPR MI AS THE
LO TO MID LVL FLOW SLOWLY VEERS TOWARD THE S. SOME OF THE MODELS
GENERATE SOME LIGHT PCPN OVER MAINLY THE W AND CENTRAL WHERE SFC
DEWPTS WL BE RISING. BUT WITH LIMITED LARGER SCALE FORCING...OPTED
TO MAINTAIN PREVIOUS DRY FCST. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE A BIT LOWER ON
WED WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLD COVER. THE LLVL DRY AIR WL BE MOST
RESILIENT OVER THE E...WHERE THE MIN RH WL AT LEAST APRCH 30 PCT IN
THE AFTN. SINCE WINDS WL BE LIGHTER AND GUST NO MORE THAN 15 TO 20
MPH...WL ISSUE NO NEW FIRE WX STATEMENTS ATTM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH PERIODS OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
CWA WILL BREAK DOWN WHILE SHIFTING EAST AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS. VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL DURING THE EVENING...BUT RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS
WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THIS PRECIP AT GROUND LEVEL. A
POCKET OF HIGHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE MID-MS VALLEY ON WED WILL SPREAD NNE DURING THE NIGHT. AS IS
GENERALLY THE CASE WITH REMNANT CONVECTIVE PRECIP...GUIDANCE IS
STRUGGLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. SHOWERS THEN DIMINISH FROM
THE SW AS DRIER AIR WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT...USHERING
IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE WEST WIND UPSLOPE
AREAS. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL ON FRI...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE. WESTERLY WINDS ALSO LOOK TO BECOME
QUITE GUSTY DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 30MPH ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE WEST HALF...AS THE SFC LOW SLOWS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DRIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SEND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
REGION...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DECENT CLOUD COVER TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK INVERSION COMBINED WITH H8
TEMPS APPROACHING -10C WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS QUITE LOW...WITH
WIDESPREAD 40S EXPECTED...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 30S EAST HALF ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR. WET BULBS ZERO LEVELS SUPPORT MOSTLY MOSTLY SNOW
OUTSIDE OF THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DIRUNAL HEATING ASSISTANCE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGHING AND LOW-LEVEL
COLD CORE WILL SHIFT EAST. HOWEVER...A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES ON
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE HIGH AND MID LEVELS DOWN
TOWARD THE LOWER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN CLOUD BASES SLOWLY LOWERING
DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. WHILE CIGS MAY FALL JUST ENOUGH TO REACH
MVFR FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AT KIWD...DON`T EXPECT A PREVAILING
MVFR CIG TO DEVELOP AT KIWD UNTIL LATE WED MORNING OR AFTN. AT
KCMX/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
EXPECT E TO NE WINDS UP TO 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN LAKE WHERE TERRAIN
INFLUENCES FUNNEL AND ACCENTUATE THIS FLOW...THRU WED BETWEEN SLOWLY
DEPARTING HI PRES IN QUEBEC AND LO PRES APPROACHING FROM THE SW. AS
THIS LO LIFTS INTO ONTARIO ON THU...EXPECT A WSHFT TO THE W AND
THEN THE NW WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT. AS A RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND...THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ001>015-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
534 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER NAMERICA WITH UPR RDG STRETCHING FM MANITOBA INTO THE
WRN GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO OVER SE CANADA...AN UPR TROF OVER
WRN CANADA/THE PAC NW AND ANOTHER SRN BRANCH CLOSED LO LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD THRU THE PLAINS. SFC HI PRES RDG EXTENDS FM HUDSON BAY
INTO ERN UPR MI. EXCEPT FOR SOME HI CLDS MAINLY NEAR THE WI
BORDER...SKIES ARE SUNNY WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB
AND ESPECIALLY THE APX RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS ONLY 0.18 INCH.
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 60S/NEAR 70 AWAY FM THE MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LKS ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE H85
TEMPS ARE APRCHG 7C...AND MIN RH HAS FALLEN AS LO AS 20-25 PCT WITH
DIURNAL MIXING. LOOKING TO THE SW...THICKER CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
PLAINS SRN BRANCH SHRTWV ARE ADVANCING SLOWLY NEWD THRU MN/WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS MAINLY ON FIRE WX ISSUES
AND NEED FOR FIRE WX HEADLINES ON TUE.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH AXIS OF VERY DRY AIR IS FCST TO PERSIST OVER THE CWA
AND MAINTAIN MOCLR SKIES...A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO
DOMINATE AS THE SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E. THE
STEADIER ESE FLOW WL HOLD LO TEMPS HIER THAN LAST NGT. EXPECT THE
LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE FAR ERN CWA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING HI
WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WL BE A BIT WEAKER. OVERALL...RH RECOVER
SHOULD BE POOR.
TUE...SRN BRANCH SHRTWV IS FCST TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NE BUT WEAKEN
AS IT RUNS INTO A PERSISTENT UPR RDG OVER NW ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH CLD
COVER IS LIKELY TO INCRS SW-NE...PREFER THE MODELS WHICH KEEP ANY
PCPN TO THE SW THRU 00Z WED GIVEN FCST PERSISTENCE OF LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY RETREATING SFC HI PRES/VERY DRY 12Z APX RAOB
THAT WL BE SOURCE AIRMASS. WITH SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BTWN FALLING
MSLP TO THE SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APRCHG ALBEIT WEAKENING SRN
BRANCH DISTURANCE AND THE HI TO THE ENE...H925 ESE WINDS ARE FCST TO
REACH 20-25 KTS...SUPPORTING SFC WINDS GUSTS 20-25 MPH...AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 30 MPH. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 6-8C
RANGE...MAX TEMPS WL AT LEAST APRCH 70 AWAY FM LK MODERATION. TENDED
TOWARD THE HI END OF GUIDANCE AWAY FM THE LK COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN
A DRIER SCENARIO WITH JUST MAINLY HI CLDS EXPECTED. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH THE FIRE WX CUSTOMERS AND CONSIDERING THE DRYNESS
OF SHORT TERM FUELS BEFORE GREENUP/POOR RH RECOVERY TNGT AS WELL AS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED HUDSON BAY HI WX PATTERN/TIME OF YEAR AND
DRYNESS OF SOURCE 12Z APX RAOB...OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR
15Z-24Z DESPITE CONCERNS OFFICIAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 534 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE BY MID-LATE THIS WEEK
AS A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA WITH BUILDING 5H
RIDGE HEIGHTS INTO NW CANADA/SE ALASKA INDUCING AN AMPLIFIED AND
PERSISTENT TROUGH DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NE CONUS...INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIDGING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK OVER UPPER MI BUT THEN AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A
BROAD...AMPLIFIED TROUGH TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION TEMPS WILL FALL
WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
WILL BRING NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU. AFTER THAT...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH BASE OF
THE BROAD TROUGH WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH SCT PCPN ACROSS
UPPER MI THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS
AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND.
BEGINNING TUE NIGHT AND WED...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY E-SE
FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER WRN QUEBEC SHOULD MAINTAIN MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH COULD MAYBE
BRING A FEW SPRINKLES INTO THE FAR SCNTRL CWA BUT NOTHING MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WL BE WARRANTED.
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE WRN LAKES BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES E WED NIGHT AS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL
CANADA. A SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE FM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. IT IS THAT WAVE ALONG WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SFC TO H85 CONVERGENCE
ALONG INITIAL COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT WL BRING A BROKEN BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. MODELS INCLUDING SREF
INDICATE BULK OF SFC AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING WELL SOUTH
OF CWA SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TSRA WITH THE SHRA. SINCE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE/PVA STAYS WELL TO NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
SECONDARY WAVE LIFTS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...SHOWERS
WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH FARTHER EAST AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS ACROSS
CWA. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DEPICT TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BE WELL UNDER A QUARTER INCH
FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE FAR WEST ALONG TRACK OF SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE. SO IN SHORT...NOT MUCH RELIEF IS EXPECTED FROM RECENT DRY
STRETCH.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT WILL PUSH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR FROM CENTRAL CANADA BEGINNING FRI. COLD AIR LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH MODELS INDICATING
COLDEST 8H TEMPS OF -8 TO POSSIBLY -10C OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SAT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF SCT SHOWERS TO THE CWA WHICH PERHAPS COULD BECOME
NUMEROUS AT TIMES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...AS TEMPS SHOULD GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. COLD TEMPS WILL ALSO LIKELY SUPPORT
SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND IN
EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION. MODEL RESOLUTION/TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BROAD/AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE POORLY HANDLED
LATE WEEK/WEEKEND TIME FRAME SO NO MORE THAN CHC POPS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON SUNDAY...SO IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES LATER FCSTS MAY NEED TO BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY
AT SOME POINT FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND
TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM
THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS
TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. WEAKENING GRAD WITH
HIGH PRES RIDGEBUILDING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW NW WINDS
TO SUBSIDESOME ON SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR MIZ001>015-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
341 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER NAMERICA WITH UPR RDG STRETCHING FM MANITOBA INTO THE
WRN GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO OVER SE CANADA...AN UPR TROF OVER
WRN CANADA/THE PAC NW AND ANOTHER SRN BRANCH CLOSED LO LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD THRU THE PLAINS. SFC HI PRES RDG EXTENDS FM HUDSON BAY
INTO ERN UPR MI. EXCEPT FOR SOME HI CLDS MAINLY NEAR THE WI
BORDER...SKIES ARE SUNNY WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB
AND ESPECIALLY THE APX RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS ONLY 0.18 INCH.
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 60S/NEAR 70 AWAY FM THE MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LKS ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE H85
TEMPS ARE APRCHG 7C...AND MIN RH HAS FALLEN AS LO AS 20-25 PCT WITH
DIURNAL MIXING. LOOKING TO THE SW...THICKER CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
PLAINS SRN BRANCH SHRTWV ARE ADVANCING SLOWLY NEWD THRU MN/WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS MAINLY ON FIRE WX ISSUES
AND NEED FOR FIRE WX HEADLINES ON TUE.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH AXIS OF VERY DRY AIR IS FCST TO PERSIST OVER THE CWA
AND MAINTAIN MOCLR SKIES...A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO
DOMINATE AS THE SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E. THE
STEADIER ESE FLOW WL HOLD LO TEMPS HIER THAN LAST NGT. EXPECT THE
LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE FAR ERN CWA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING HI
WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WL BE A BIT WEAKER. OVERALL...RH RECOVER
SHOULD BE POOR.
TUE...SRN BRANCH SHRTWV IS FCST TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NE BUT WEAKEN
AS IT RUNS INTO A PERSISTENT UPR RDG OVER NW ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH CLD
COVER IS LIKELY TO INCRS SW-NE...PREFER THE MODELS WHICH KEEP ANY
PCPN TO THE SW THRU 00Z WED GIVEN FCST PERSISTENCE OF LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY RETREATING SFC HI PRES/VERY DRY 12Z APX RAOB
THAT WL BE SOURCE AIRMASS. WITH SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BTWN FALLING
MSLP TO THE SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APRCHG ALBEIT WEAKENING SRN
BRANCH DISTURANCE AND THE HI TO THE ENE...H925 ESE WINDS ARE FCST TO
REACH 20-25 KTS...SUPPORTING SFC WINDS GUSTS 20-25 MPH...AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 30 MPH. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 6-8C
RANGE...MAX TEMPS WL AT LEAST APRCH 70 AWAY FM LK MODERATION. TENDED
TOWARD THE HI END OF GUIDANCE AWAY FM THE LK COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN
A DRIER SCENARIO WITH JUST MAINLY HI CLDS EXPECTED. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH THE FIRE WX CUSTOMERS AND CONSIDERING THE DRYNESS
OF SHORT TERM FUELS BEFORE GREENUP/POOR RH RECOVERY TNGT AS WELL AS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED HUDSON BAY HI WX PATTERN/TIME OF YEAR AND
DRYNESS OF SOURCE 12Z APX RAOB...OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR
15Z-24Z DESPITE CONCERNS OFFICIAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CONCERN AT LEAST INITIALLY THIS WEEK. UPPER
RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUE FORECAST TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AS INITIAL UPPER
TROUGH TRIES TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE MAINLY BLO H7 SLOWLY EDGES IN FM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUE BUT
CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO A FEW SPRINKLES/VIRGA OR
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER. KEPT MAX TEMPS
ONLY TO AROUND 60 WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LATE RAIN. HOWEVER...
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST AND WITH H85
TEMPS UP A GOOD 2-4C OVER THOSE TODAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
LOW 70S INTERIOR WEST AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE AWAY FM LK
MICHIGAN. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE WHERE
TEMPS ARE WARMEST. E-SE WINDS LOOK STRONGER AS WELL /10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AS SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO HIGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS...BUT A WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE INTO RIDGE ALONG WITH SURGE OF H9-H7 MOISTURE
AND HIGHER SFC DWPNTS COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER
MORE OF THE CWA ON TUE NIGHT. CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT AT BEST
THOUGH.
RIDGE ALOFT SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON WED AS
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL
CANADA. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE FM THE SOUTHWEST ON WED
NIGHT. IT IS THAT WAVE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND SFC TO
H85 CONVERGENCE ALONG INITIAL WEAKER COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT BRINGS
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. SFC AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF CWA SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TSRA
WITH THE SHRA. SINCE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/PVA STAYS WELL TO NORTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SECONDARY WAVE LIFTS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH FARTHER EAST
ACROSS CWA. TOTAL RAINFALL PROBABLY WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER A QUARTER
INCH EXCEPT FOR FAR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
AND EVEN THERE GFS IS FARTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH.
SHOWERS OVER EAST HALF COULD GET A BOOST AS THAT AREA IS ON NOSE OF
H3 JET AND LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE
INSTABILITY THOUGH FOR THIS TO BE MAJOR FACTOR AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM
WILL BE RUNNING INTO HIGHER HEIGHTS/DRY AIR. JUST NOT LOOKING LIKE A
LOT OF RAIN WHICH REALLY WOULD BE WELCOME GIVEN THE DRY PATTERN UPR
MICHIGAN IS IN CURRENTLY.
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO LEADING TROUGH AND RESULTS IN PERSISTENT
TROUGHING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL BE SHORTWAVES DROPPING
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN AND EVEN FARTHER SW ACROSS
WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NO TELLING WHAT
ACTUAL TRACK OF STRONGER WAVES WILL BE THOUGH. STILL APPEARS CHILLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -6C TO -8C FRI
EVENING AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -10C BY SAT MORNING BEFORE MODERATING
TO AROUND -4C BY LATER SUN. THE COOL H85 TEMPS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES BLO 1290DAM SUPPORT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR MAYBE
JUST SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS SFC TEMPS FALL TO AROUND FREEZING LATER
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. WATER TEMPS ON LK SUPERIOR ARE 3C
OPEN WATERS TO NEAR 5C NEARSHORE...SO COULD EVEN BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVES IN VCNTY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMULATION. GFS SHOWS STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND GIVEN THE BROAD DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT CANNOT RULE IT OUT. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND
TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM
THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS
TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS ON THU INTO FRI
WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR MIZ001>015-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
203 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WL NOT MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA...COORDINATED WITH
THE MI DNR TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR THE W HALF OF UPR MI
TO HIGHLIGHT A MORE ELEVATED FIRE WX POTENTIAL IN THAT AREA DUE TO
SHARPER PRES GRADIENT THAT WL SUPPORT SE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ON
THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES RDG AXIS OVER ERN UPR MI. WITH MIN RH
EXPECTED TO DIP AS LO AS ABOUT 20 PCT BEFORE GREENUP AND MAX TEMPS
AT LEAST APRCH 70...CONDITIONS IN THAT AREA WOULD ALLOW WILDFIRES TO
SPREAD. THE 12Z APX RAOB SHOWS A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE THAT WL ALSO
ALLOW MIN RH OVER THE E HALF OF UPR MI TO DROP TOWARD 20 PCT...BUT
WEAKER PRES GRADIENT THERE WL NOT ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS MUCH MORE
THAN 10-12 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO MANITOBA AND A TROUGH OVER QUEBEC RESULTING IN CONFLUENT
NW MID/UPPER LEVEL THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO LOWER MI.
WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...IR LOOP SHOWED CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS UPPER MI.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT AS THE SFC RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...E TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST UPPER MI.
THE SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE 3C TO 7C RANGE...TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S INTERIOR WEST AND TO AROUND 60 OVER THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL PREVAIL DOWNWIND OF ERLY FLOW OFF
THE GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS...DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 20 TO 25
PERCENT...ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS ARE EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...DESPITE THE DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BOUNDARY
LAYER SE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING
TO KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF BELOW THE UPPER 30S. LOW TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WILL ARE EXPECTED NEAR IWD AND ONTONAGON
WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CONCERN AT LEAST INITIALLY THIS WEEK. UPPER
RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUE FORECAST TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AS INITIAL UPPER
TROUGH TRIES TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE MAINLY BLO H7 SLOWLY EDGES IN FM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUE BUT
CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO A FEW SPRINKLES/VIRGA OR
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER. KEPT MAX TEMPS
ONLY TO AROUND 60 WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LATE RAIN. HOWEVER...
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST AND WITH H85
TEMPS UP A GOOD 2-4C OVER THOSE TODAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
LOW 70S INTERIOR WEST AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE AWAY FM LK
MICHIGAN. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE WHERE
TEMPS ARE WARMEST. E-SE WINDS LOOK STRONGER AS WELL /10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AS SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO HIGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS...BUT A WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE INTO RIDGE ALONG WITH SURGE OF H9-H7 MOISTURE
AND HIGHER SFC DWPNTS COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER
MORE OF THE CWA ON TUE NIGHT. CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT AT BEST
THOUGH.
RIDGE ALOFT SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON WED AS
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL
CANADA. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE FM THE SOUTHWEST ON WED
NIGHT. IT IS THAT WAVE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND SFC TO
H85 CONVERGENCE ALONG INITIAL WEAKER COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT BRINGS
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. SFC AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF CWA SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TSRA
WITH THE SHRA. SINCE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/PVA STAYS WELL TO NORTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SECONDARY WAVE LIFTS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH FARTHER EAST
ACROSS CWA. TOTAL RAINFALL PROBABLY WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER A QUARTER
INCH EXCEPT FOR FAR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
AND EVEN THERE GFS IS FARTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH.
SHOWERS OVER EAST HALF COULD GET A BOOST AS THAT AREA IS ON NOSE OF
H3 JET AND LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE
INSTABILITY THOUGH FOR THIS TO BE MAJOR FACTOR AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM
WILL BE RUNNING INTO HIGHER HEIGHTS/DRY AIR. JUST NOT LOOKING LIKE A
LOT OF RAIN WHICH REALLY WOULD BE WELCOME GIVEN THE DRY PATTERN UPR
MICHIGAN IS IN CURRENTLY.
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO LEADING TROUGH AND RESULTS IN PERSISTENT
TROUGHING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL BE SHORTWAVES DROPPING
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN AND EVEN FARTHER SW ACROSS
WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NO TELLING WHAT
ACTUAL TRACK OF STRONGER WAVES WILL BE THOUGH. STILL APPEARS CHILLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -6C TO -8C FRI
EVENING AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -10C BY SAT MORNING BEFORE MODERATING
TO AROUND -4C BY LATER SUN. THE COOL H85 TEMPS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES BLO 1290DAM SUPPORT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR MAYBE
JUST SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS SFC TEMPS FALL TO AROUND FREEZING LATER
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. WATER TEMPS ON LK SUPERIOR ARE 3C
OPEN WATERS TO NEAR 5C NEARSHORE...SO COULD EVEN BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVES IN VCNTY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMULATION. GFS SHOWS STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND GIVEN THE BROAD DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT CANNOT RULE IT OUT. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND
TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM
THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS
TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS ON THU INTO FRI
WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1031 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WL NOT MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA...COORDINATED WITH
THE MI DNR TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR THE W HALF OF UPR MI
TO HIGHLIGHT A MORE ELEVATED FIRE WX POTENTIAL IN THAT AREA DUE TO
SHARPER PRES GRADIENT THAT WL SUPPORT SE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ON
THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES RDG AXIS OVER ERN UPR MI. WITH MIN RH
EXPECTED TO DIP AS LO AS ABOUT 20 PCT BEFORE GREENUP AND MAX TEMPS
AT LEAST APRCH 70...CONDITIONS IN THAT AREA WOULD ALLOW WILDFIRES TO
SPREAD. THE 12Z APX RAOB SHOWS A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE THAT WL ALSO
ALLOW MIN RH OVER THE E HALF OF UPR MI TO DROP TOWARD 20 PCT...BUT
WEAKER PRES GRADIENT THERE WL NOT ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS MUCH MORE
THAN 10-12 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO MANITOBA AND A TROUGH OVER QUEBEC RESULTING IN CONFLUENT
NW MID/UPPER LEVEL THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO LOWER MI.
WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...IR LOOP SHOWED CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS UPPER MI.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT AS THE SFC RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...E TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST UPPER MI.
THE SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE 3C TO 7C RANGE...TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S INTERIOR WEST AND TO AROUND 60 OVER THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL PREVAIL DOWNWIND OF ERLY FLOW OFF
THE GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS...DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 20 TO 25
PERCENT...ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS ARE EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...DESPITE THE DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BOUNDARY
LAYER SE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING
TO KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF BELOW THE UPPER 30S. LOW TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WILL ARE EXPECTED NEAR IWD AND ONTONAGON
WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CONCERN AT LEAST INITIALLY THIS WEEK. UPPER
RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUE FORECAST TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AS INITIAL UPPER
TROUGH TRIES TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE MAINLY BLO H7 SLOWLY EDGES IN FM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUE BUT
CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO A FEW SPRINKLES/VIRGA OR
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER. KEPT MAX TEMPS
ONLY TO AROUND 60 WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LATE RAIN. HOWEVER...
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST AND WITH H85
TEMPS UP A GOOD 2-4C OVER THOSE TODAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
LOW 70S INTERIOR WEST AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE AWAY FM LK
MICHIGAN. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE WHERE
TEMPS ARE WARMEST. E-SE WINDS LOOK STRONGER AS WELL /10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AS SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO HIGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS...BUT A WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE INTO RIDGE ALONG WITH SURGE OF H9-H7 MOISTURE
AND HIGHER SFC DWPNTS COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER
MORE OF THE CWA ON TUE NIGHT. CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT AT BEST
THOUGH.
RIDGE ALOFT SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON WED AS
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL
CANADA. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE FM THE SOUTHWEST ON WED
NIGHT. IT IS THAT WAVE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND SFC TO
H85 CONVERGENCE ALONG INITIAL WEAKER COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT BRINGS
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. SFC AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF CWA SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TSRA
WITH THE SHRA. SINCE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/PVA STAYS WELL TO NORTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SECONDARY WAVE LIFTS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH FARTHER EAST
ACROSS CWA. TOTAL RAINFALL PROBABLY WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER A QUARTER
INCH EXCEPT FOR FAR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
AND EVEN THERE GFS IS FARTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH.
SHOWERS OVER EAST HALF COULD GET A BOOST AS THAT AREA IS ON NOSE OF
H3 JET AND LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE
INSTABILITY THOUGH FOR THIS TO BE MAJOR FACTOR AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM
WILL BE RUNNING INTO HIGHER HEIGHTS/DRY AIR. JUST NOT LOOKING LIKE A
LOT OF RAIN WHICH REALLY WOULD BE WELCOME GIVEN THE DRY PATTERN UPR
MICHIGAN IS IN CURRENTLY.
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO LEADING TROUGH AND RESULTS IN PERSISTENT
TROUGHING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL BE SHORTWAVES DROPPING
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN AND EVEN FARTHER SW ACROSS
WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NO TELLING WHAT
ACTUAL TRACK OF STRONGER WAVES WILL BE THOUGH. STILL APPEARS CHILLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -6C TO -8C FRI
EVENING AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -10C BY SAT MORNING BEFORE MODERATING
TO AROUND -4C BY LATER SUN. THE COOL H85 TEMPS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES BLO 1290DAM SUPPORT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR MAYBE
JUST SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS SFC TEMPS FALL TO AROUND FREEZING LATER
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. WATER TEMPS ON LK SUPERIOR ARE 3C
OPEN WATERS TO NEAR 5C NEARSHORE...SO COULD EVEN BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVES IN VCNTY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMULATION. GFS SHOWS STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND GIVEN THE BROAD DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT CANNOT RULE IT OUT. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND
TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM
THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS
TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS ON THU INTO FRI
WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
736 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO MANITOBA AND A TROUGH OVER QUEBEC RESULTING IN CONFLUENT
NW MID/UPPER LEVEL THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO LOWER MI.
WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...IR LOOP SHOWED CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS UPPER MI.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT AS THE SFC RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...E TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST UPPER MI.
THE SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE 3C TO 7C RANGE...TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S INTERIOR WEST AND TO AROUND 60 OVER THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL PREVAIL DOWNWIND OF ERLY FLOW OFF
THE GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS...DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 20 TO 25
PERCENT...ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS ARE EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...DESPITE THE DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BOUNDARY
LAYER SE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING
TO KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF BELOW THE UPPER 30S. LOW TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WILL ARE EXPECTED NEAR IWD AND ONTONAGON
WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CONCERN AT LEAST INITIALLY THIS WEEK. UPPER
RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUE FORECAST TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AS INITIAL UPPER
TROUGH TRIES TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE MAINLY BLO H7 SLOWLY EDGES IN FM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUE BUT
CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO A FEW SPRINKLES/VIRGA OR
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER. KEPT MAX TEMPS
ONLY TO AROUND 60 WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LATE RAIN. HOWEVER...
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST AND WITH H85
TEMPS UP A GOOD 2-4C OVER THOSE TODAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
LOW 70S INTERIOR WEST AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE AWAY FM LK
MICHIGAN. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE WHERE
TEMPS ARE WARMEST. E-SE WINDS LOOK STRONGER AS WELL /10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AS SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO HIGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS...BUT A WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE INTO RIDGE ALONG WITH SURGE OF H9-H7 MOISTURE
AND HIGHER SFC DWPNTS COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER
MORE OF THE CWA ON TUE NIGHT. CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT AT BEST
THOUGH.
RIDGE ALOFT SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON WED AS
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL
CANADA. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE FM THE SOUTHWEST ON WED
NIGHT. IT IS THAT WAVE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND SFC TO
H85 CONVERGENCE ALONG INITIAL WEAKER COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT BRINGS
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. SFC AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF CWA SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TSRA
WITH THE SHRA. SINCE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/PVA STAYS WELL TO NORTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SECONDARY WAVE LIFTS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH FARTHER EAST
ACROSS CWA. TOTAL RAINFALL PROBABLY WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER A QUARTER
INCH EXCEPT FOR FAR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
AND EVEN THERE GFS IS FARTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH.
SHOWERS OVER EAST HALF COULD GET A BOOST AS THAT AREA IS ON NOSE OF
H3 JET AND LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE
INSTABILITY THOUGH FOR THIS TO BE MAJOR FACTOR AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM
WILL BE RUNNING INTO HIGHER HEIGHTS/DRY AIR. JUST NOT LOOKING LIKE A
LOT OF RAIN WHICH REALLY WOULD BE WELCOME GIVEN THE DRY PATTERN UPR
MICHIGAN IS IN CURRENTLY.
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO LEADING TROUGH AND RESULTS IN PERSISTENT
TROUGHING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL BE SHORTWAVES DROPPING
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN AND EVEN FARTHER SW ACROSS
WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NO TELLING WHAT
ACTUAL TRACK OF STRONGER WAVES WILL BE THOUGH. STILL APPEARS CHILLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -6C TO -8C FRI
EVENING AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -10C BY SAT MORNING BEFORE MODERATING
TO AROUND -4C BY LATER SUN. THE COOL H85 TEMPS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES BLO 1290DAM SUPPORT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR MAYBE
JUST SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS SFC TEMPS FALL TO AROUND FREEZING LATER
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. WATER TEMPS ON LK SUPERIOR ARE 3C
OPEN WATERS TO NEAR 5C NEARSHORE...SO COULD EVEN BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVES IN VCNTY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMULATION. GFS SHOWS STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND GIVEN THE BROAD DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT CANNOT RULE IT OUT. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND
TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM
THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS
TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS ON THU INTO FRI
WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
501 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO MANITOBA AND A TROUGH OVER QUEBEC RESULTING IN CONFLUENT
NW MID/UPPER LEVEL THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO LOWER MI.
WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...IR LOOP SHOWED CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS UPPER MI.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT AS THE SFC RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...E TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST UPPER MI.
THE SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE 3C TO 7C RANGE...TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S INTERIOR WEST AND TO AROUND 60 OVER THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL PREVAIL DOWNWIND OF ERLY FLOW OFF
THE GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS...DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 20 TO 25
PERCENT...ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS ARE EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...DESPITE THE DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BOUNDARY
LAYER SE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING
TO KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF BELOW THE UPPER 30S. LOW TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WILL ARE EXPECTED NEAR IWD AND ONTONAGON
WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CONCERN AT LEAST INITIALLY THIS WEEK. UPPER
RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUE FORECAST TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AS INITIAL UPPER
TROUGH TRIES TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE MAINLY BLO H7 SLOWLY EDGES IN FM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUE BUT
CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO A FEW SPRINKLES/VIRGA OR
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER. KEPT MAX TEMPS
ONLY TO AROUND 60 WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LATE RAIN. HOWEVER...
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST AND WITH H85
TEMPS UP A GOOD 2-4C OVER THOSE TODAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
LOW 70S INTERIOR WEST AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE AWAY FM LK
MICHIGAN. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE WHERE
TEMPS ARE WARMEST. E-SE WINDS LOOK STRONGER AS WELL /10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AS SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO HIGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS...BUT A WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE INTO RIDGE ALONG WITH SURGE OF H9-H7 MOISTURE
AND HIGHER SFC DWPNTS COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER
MORE OF THE CWA ON TUE NIGHT. CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT AT BEST
THOUGH.
RIDGE ALOFT SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON WED AS
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL
CANADA. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE FM THE SOUTHWEST ON WED
NIGHT. IT IS THAT WAVE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND SFC TO
H85 CONVERGENCE ALONG INITIAL WEAKER COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT BRINGS
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. SFC AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF CWA SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TSRA
WITH THE SHRA. SINCE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/PVA STAYS WELL TO NORTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SECONDARY WAVE LIFTS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH FARTHER EAST
ACROSS CWA. TOTAL RAINFALL PROBABLY WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER A QUARTER
INCH EXCEPT FOR FAR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
AND EVEN THERE GFS IS FARTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH.
SHOWERS OVER EAST HALF COULD GET A BOOST AS THAT AREA IS ON NOSE OF
H3 JET AND LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE
INSTABILITY THOUGH FOR THIS TO BE MAJOR FACTOR AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM
WILL BE RUNNING INTO HIGHER HEIGHTS/DRY AIR. JUST NOT LOOKING LIKE A
LOT OF RAIN WHICH REALLY WOULD BE WELCOME GIVEN THE DRY PATTERN UPR
MICHIGAN IS IN CURRENTLY.
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO LEADING TROUGH AND RESULTS IN PERSISTENT
TROUGHING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL BE SHORTWAVES DROPPING
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN AND EVEN FARTHER SW ACROSS
WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NO TELLING WHAT
ACTUAL TRACK OF STRONGER WAVES WILL BE THOUGH. STILL APPEARS CHILLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -6C TO -8C FRI
EVENING AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -10C BY SAT MORNING BEFORE MODERATING
TO AROUND -4C BY LATER SUN. THE COOL H85 TEMPS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES BLO 1290DAM SUPPORT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR MAYBE
JUST SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS SFC TEMPS FALL TO AROUND FREEZING LATER
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. WATER TEMPS ON LK SUPERIOR ARE 3C
OPEN WATERS TO NEAR 5C NEARSHORE...SO COULD EVEN BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVES IN VCNTY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMULATION. GFS SHOWS STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND GIVEN THE BROAD DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT CANNOT RULE IT OUT. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND
TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM
THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS
TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS ON THU INTO FRI
WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
407 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CONFLUENT NW
FLOW ALF OVER THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO NEAR HUDSON BAY
AND AN UPR RDG EXTENDING FM THE NRN PLAINS THRU CENTRAL CANADA.
UNDER THIS CONFLUENT FLOW ALF...SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER FAR NW
ONTARIO IS EXTENDING A RDG AXIS TOWARD UPR MI. LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON
THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS UNDER THIS RDG AXIS IS RESULTING IN DRY WX
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DIURNAL CU. BUT INCOMING AIRMASS IS
QUITE DRY PER 12Z YPL RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS 0.22 INCH.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS WITH DRY HI PRES
FCST TO DOMINATE. WITH PERSISTENT DRYNESS BEFORE GREENUP...FIRE WX
ISSUES WL BE A CONCERN ON MON AFTN.
TNGT...EXPECT MOCLR SKIES WITH DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING...A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR A CHILLY OVERNGT. THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR OVER
THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA CLOSER TO WHERE THE HI PRES RDG IS FCST TO
BUILD AND BRING THE LIGHTEST WINDS. WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS IN THIS AREA. A LIGHT SE WIND OVER THE FAR W
UNDER A BIT SHARPER PRES GRADIENT ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE RDG AXIS
MAY LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP DROP THERE.
MON...HI PRES RDG AXIS WL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE ERN CWA. H85
TEMPS ARE FCST TO REBOUND TO BTWN ABOUT 4C OVER THE E TO NEAR 7C
OVER THE W...WHERE A STEADY SE FLOW IS FCST TO DOWNSLOPE. MAX TEMPS
IN THIS AREA WL AT LEAST APRCH 70. STEADIER SE WINDS IN THIS AREA WL
ALSO ACCENTUATE FIRE WX CONCERNS AS DAYTIME MIXING ALLOWS MIN RH TO
DIP TOWARD 20 TO 25 PCT. FORTUNATELY...THIS AREA WHERE THE SE WINDS
WL BE STRONGEST PICKED UP A BIT MORE RA ON FRI NGT. WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND E SHOULD BE LIGHTER AND LIMIT WILD FIRE POTENTIAL IN
THOSE AREAS DESPITE MORE RECENT DRYNESS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CONCERN AT LEAST INITIALLY THIS WEEK. UPPER
RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUE FORECAST TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AS INITIAL UPPER
TROUGH TRIES TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE MAINLY BLO H7 SLOWLY EDGES IN FM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUE BUT
CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO A FEW SPRINKLES/VIRGA OR
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER. KEPT MAX TEMPS
ONLY TO AROUND 60 WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LATE RAIN. HOWEVER...
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST AND WITH H85
TEMPS UP A GOOD 2-4C OVER THOSE TODAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
LOW 70S INTERIOR WEST AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE AWAY FM LK
MICHIGAN. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE WHERE
TEMPS ARE WARMEST. E-SE WINDS LOOK STRONGER AS WELL /10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AS SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO HIGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS...BUT A WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE INTO RIDGE ALONG WITH SURGE OF H9-H7 MOISTURE
AND HIGHER SFC DWPNTS COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER
MORE OF THE CWA ON TUE NIGHT. CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT AT BEST
THOUGH.
RIDGE ALOFT SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON WED AS
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL
CANADA. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE FM THE SOUTHWEST ON WED
NIGHT. IT IS THAT WAVE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND SFC TO
H85 CONVERGENCE ALONG INITIAL WEAKER COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT BRINGS
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. SFC AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF CWA SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TSRA
WITH THE SHRA. SINCE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/PVA STAYS WELL TO NORTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SECONDARY WAVE LIFTS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH FARTHER EAST
ACROSS CWA. TOTAL RAINFALL PROBABLY WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER A QUARTER
INCH EXCEPT FOR FAR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
AND EVEN THERE GFS IS FARTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH.
SHOWERS OVER EAST HALF COULD GET A BOOST AS THAT AREA IS ON NOSE OF
H3 JET AND LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE
INSTABILITY THOUGH FOR THIS TO BE MAJOR FACTOR AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM
WILL BE RUNNING INTO HIGHER HEIGHTS/DRY AIR. JUST NOT LOOKING LIKE A
LOT OF RAIN WHICH REALLY WOULD BE WELCOME GIVEN THE DRY PATTERN UPR
MICHIGAN IS IN CURRENTLY.
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO LEADING TROUGH AND RESULTS IN PERSISTENT
TROUGHING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL BE SHORTWAVES DROPPING
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN AND EVEN FARTHER SW ACROSS
WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NO TELLING WHAT
ACTUAL TRACK OF STRONGER WAVES WILL BE THOUGH. STILL APPEARS CHILLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -6C TO -8C FRI
EVENING AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -10C BY SAT MORNING BEFORE MODERATING
TO AROUND -4C BY LATER SUN. THE COOL H85 TEMPS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES BLO 1290DAM SUPPORT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR MAYBE
JUST SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS SFC TEMPS FALL TO AROUND FREEZING LATER
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. WATER TEMPS ON LK SUPERIOR ARE 3C
OPEN WATERS TO NEAR 5C NEARSHORE...SO COULD EVEN BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVES IN VCNTY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMULATION. GFS SHOWS STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND GIVEN THE BROAD DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT CANNOT RULE IT OUT. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS THRU TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES
BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL BECOME ENE UP 15 TO 25 KTS ON MON
AFTERNOON/NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES GRADIENT ON
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HI PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND TERRAIN
INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE
HI SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LO PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SW...THE
FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LO SHIFTS TO THE NE AND
INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS ON THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT TO
THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CONFLUENT NW
FLOW ALF OVER THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO NEAR HUDSON BAY
AND AN UPR RDG EXTENDING FM THE NRN PLAINS THRU CENTRAL CANADA.
UNDER THIS CONFLUENT FLOW ALF...SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER FAR NW
ONTARIO IS EXTENDING A RDG AXIS TOWARD UPR MI. LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON
THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS UNDER THIS RDG AXIS IS RESULTING IN DRY WX
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DIURNAL CU. BUT INCOMING AIRMASS IS
QUITE DRY PER 12Z YPL RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS 0.22 INCH.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS WITH DRY HI PRES
FCST TO DOMINATE. WITH PERSISTENT DRYNESS BEFORE GREENUP...FIRE WX
ISSUES WL BE A CONCERN ON MON AFTN.
TNGT...EXPECT MOCLR SKIES WITH DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING...A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR A CHILLY OVERNGT. THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR OVER
THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA CLOSER TO WHERE THE HI PRES RDG IS FCST TO
BUILD AND BRING THE LIGHTEST WINDS. WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS IN THIS AREA. A LIGHT SE WIND OVER THE FAR W
UNDER A BIT SHARPER PRES GRADIENT ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE RDG AXIS
MAY LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP DROP THERE.
MON...HI PRES RDG AXIS WL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE ERN CWA. H85
TEMPS ARE FCST TO REBOUND TO BTWN ABOUT 4C OVER THE E TO NEAR 7C
OVER THE W...WHERE A STEADY SE FLOW IS FCST TO DOWNSLOPE. MAX TEMPS
IN THIS AREA WL AT LEAST APRCH 70. STEADIER SE WINDS IN THIS AREA WL
ALSO ACCENTUATE FIRE WX CONCERNS AS DAYTIME MIXING ALLOWS MIN RH TO
DIP TOWARD 20 TO 25 PCT. FORTUNATELY...THIS AREA WHERE THE SE WINDS
WL BE STRONGEST PICKED UP A BIT MORE RA ON FRI NGT. WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND E SHOULD BE LIGHTER AND LIMIT WILD FIRE POTENTIAL IN
THOSE AREAS DESPITE MORE RECENT DRYNESS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BRINGING A
WARMER AIRMASS INTO WED AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE W. HIGHS
TUE IN THE 60S AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORES INCREASE TO MID 60S
TO MID 70S ON WED. THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE TURNING COOLER AS
THAT UPPER LOW MOVES IN...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S SAT.
LOW RH VALUES WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
E...DOWN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT INTERIOR W...TUE AFTERNOON AS WINDS
GUST TO 20-25MPH. RH IMPROVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AREA SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP SW OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE WED. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING SOME PRECIP BRUSHING THE WI BORDER MON NIGHT INTO WED...BUT
JUST HOW FAR THE SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT INTO THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
WILL BE TRICKY. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW END AND CONFINED TO NEAR
THE WI BORDER THROUGH LATE WED. WED NIGHT AND THU LOOK TO SEE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SFC COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. ALTHOUGH THE GFS ONLY
HAVE SOME AREAS SEEING A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF...THE ECMWF HAS ALL
AREAS WITH AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH. FRI INTO SUN COULD HAVE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR INSIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIP AS
850MB TEMPS DROP TO OR BELOW -7C. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONG W WINDS OVER THE KEWEENAW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI...SO WILL BE
MONITORING THAT TOO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS THRU TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES
BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL BECOME ENE UP 15 TO 25 KTS ON MON
AFTERNOON/NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES GRADIENT ON
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HI PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND TERRAIN
INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE
HI SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LO PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SW...THE
FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LO SHIFTS TO THE NE AND
INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS ON THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT TO
THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
915 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS BROAD RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
REGION. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...IT WILL ALSO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO SOME UPPER 60S...FEELING A LITTLE LIKE
EARLY SUMMER. GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY UPDATES WERE
TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS. /28/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE PREVAILING AT TAF SITES ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT BUT AREAS
OF LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN. SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 3-8 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. /28/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/
DISCUSSION...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING THE
GENERAL THEME. AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WE ARE STILL WAITING TO
SEE ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA PER MORNING DISCUSSION...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HRRR GUIDANCE MAY
END UP BEING OVERDONE. AFTER ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING...EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL RAIN CHANCES
RETURN THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMAL IN THIS WARM PATTERN AND HIGHS COULD APPROACH 90 F
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN A FEW LOCATIONS. /EC/
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
HELP SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR CWA. WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
INCREASE PWATS FROM AN INCH AND A QUARTER TO OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BY THURSDAY EVENING. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
GET AN EARLY START AND SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE NOON.
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY
EVENING AND NOT PUSHING SOUTH OF OUR CWA UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS SLOWER THAN LAST NIGHT`S MODEL RUN SUGGESTED. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO OUR CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT KNOCKING
PWATS BELOW A HALF INCH BY FRIDAY EVENING. A >1020MB HIGH WILL
REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HELPS DROP ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
REMAINING WEST OF OUR CWA...LACK OF ANY RETURN FLOW WILL LIMIT DEEP
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT WILL GET BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS
STALLS THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT NORTH OF OUR CWA. EITHER WAY...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS RAIN BACK
OVER OUR CWA MONDAY FASTER THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH MODELS SUGGEST OUR
FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MONDAY
THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY NIGHT. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 67 88 66 86 / 6 4 9 23
MERIDIAN 65 88 64 85 / 6 5 4 22
VICKSBURG 67 88 66 86 / 6 5 10 25
HATTIESBURG 66 89 66 88 / 5 10 6 20
NATCHEZ 67 87 67 85 / 4 9 7 21
GREENVILLE 68 88 68 82 / 6 7 14 45
GREENWOOD 67 88 66 84 / 6 4 10 47
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
954 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
The few showers across parts of southeast MO have dissipated late
this evening with a clear sky across almost the entire forecast area
along with light surface winds. Could not rule out some patchy fog
late tonight due to the clear sky, light wind, and high surface
dew points. Some of the latest models still depict some convection
developing towards morning across mainly southeast MO along a
weak, subtle warm front. It appears that convection over the
Plains will not make it into the western portion of our forecast
area before 12Z Wednesday. Lows will be about 5 to 10 degrees
above normal tonight, similar to last nights lows due to the high
surface dew points.
GKS
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
A few isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible late this afternoon, but
any pcpn should diminish after sunset. Quiet wx is expected for
most of the evening hours compliments of shortwave ridging aloft.
Convection is expected to develop farther west later tonight
(especially after 06z) due to a strengthening LLJ impinging upon
a boundary. This activity may reach the western CWA before 12z.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Active weather is expected on Wednesday, starting with a round of
SHRA/TSRA during the morning hours which will have formed out
west overnight and then moved into the CWA. There is some
question regarding how far east the morning pcpn will reach
before dissipating.
Assuming that the morning convection does not leave too much
debris cloudiness over the region, temperatures should soar into
the mid to upper 80s on Wed aftn ahead of an approaching cold
front. Depending on cloud cover trends, a few locations in east
central MO and southwest IL may even flirt with 90 degrees. If any
locations do reach 90 degrees tomorrow, climate records indicate
that this would be earlier than average. The mean date of the
first 90 degree day of the calendar year is roughly May 21st for
St. Louis MO, around May 31st for Columbia MO, and near June 6th
for Quincy IL.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop Wed aftn/eve
invof the aforementioned cold front. Models continue to forecast
very high values of CAPE and favorable H7-H5 lapse rates of
6.5-7.5 deg C/km (some models depict even higher values) on Wed
aftn/eve ahead of the front. Although shear values are rather
low /perhaps 20-30 kts at best/ this does not preclude strong to
severe thunderstorms. The high instability on Wed may very well
compensate for the lower shear values, and storms which dvlp could
pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail during the
aftn/eve hours. The most likely scenario attm is that an MCS
develops farther west and moves into the CWA during the aftn/eve.
Pcpn will end with the passage of the cdfnt. As the midnight
shift noted in their discussion, the models continue to show a
slower progression of the front, therefore low PoPs were retained
through early Thu aftn across the southeastern CWA.
A surface high builds into the region on Thu night and suppresses
the bdry to the south. Meanwhile, a pattern change aloft results
in northwest flow dvlpg on Fri and persisting through the weekend.
There is a chance of rain on Fri/Fri night associated with a
reinforcing cdfnt dropping southward and an upper level vort max.
There is also a chance of rain when the boundary begins to lift
back northward as a wmfnt late this weekend and early next week.
Temperatures will be cooler than average this weekend.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Diurnal cumulus clouds should dissipate early this evening with
surface winds becoming light. There may be some light fog late
tonight/early Wednesday morning. Could not rule out weakening
showers/storms moving into COU Wednesday morning, but it appears
that the better chance of storms will occur Wednesday afternoon
and evening as the atmosphere destabilizes ahead of an approaching
cold front. For now will just include VCTS in the tafs Wednesday
afternoon with diurnal cumulus clouds developing again during the
late morning and afternoon. A strengthening sely surface wind can
be expected on Wednesday.
Specifics for KSTL: Diurnal cumulus clouds will dissipate early
this evening due to the loss of daytime heating. A light surface
wind can be expected tonight. There may be some light fog late
tonight/early Wednesday morning, although the NAM MOS guidance
looks overdone with its forecast of stratus and fog during this
time. Diurnal cumulus clouds will develop again late Wednesday
morning and afternoon with thunderstorms by late afternoon or
early evening. A strengthening sely surface wind can be expected
on Wednesday.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
954 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
The few showers across parts of southeast MO have dissipated late
this evening with a clear sky across almost the entire forecast area
along with light surface winds. Could not rule out some patchy fog
late tonight due to the clear sky, light wind, and high surface
dew points. Some of the latest models still depict some convection
developing towards morning across mainly southeast MO along a
weak, subtle warm front. It appears that convection over the
Plains will not make it into the western portion of our forecast
area before 12Z Wednesday. Lows will be about 5 to 10 degrees
above normal tonight, similar to last nights lows due to the high
surface dew points.
GKS
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
A few isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible late this afternoon, but
any pcpn should diminish after sunset. Quiet wx is expected for
most of the evening hours compliments of shortwave ridging aloft.
Convection is expected to develop farther west later tonight
(especially after 06z) due to a strengthening LLJ impinging upon
a boundary. This activity may reach the western CWA before 12z.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Active weather is expected on Wednesday, starting with a round of
SHRA/TSRA during the morning hours which will have formed out
west overnight and then moved into the CWA. There is some
question regarding how far east the morning pcpn will reach
before dissipating.
Assuming that the morning convection does not leave too much
debris cloudiness over the region, temperatures should soar into
the mid to upper 80s on Wed aftn ahead of an approaching cold
front. Depending on cloud cover trends, a few locations in east
central MO and southwest IL may even flirt with 90 degrees. If any
locations do reach 90 degrees tomorrow, climate records indicate
that this would be earlier than average. The mean date of the
first 90 degree day of the calendar year is roughly May 21st for
St. Louis MO, around May 31st for Columbia MO, and near June 6th
for Quincy IL.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop Wed aftn/eve
invof the aforementioned cold front. Models continue to forecast
very high values of CAPE and favorable H7-H5 lapse rates of
6.5-7.5 deg C/km (some models depict even higher values) on Wed
aftn/eve ahead of the front. Although shear values are rather
low /perhaps 20-30 kts at best/ this does not preclude strong to
severe thunderstorms. The high instability on Wed may very well
compensate for the lower shear values, and storms which dvlp could
pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail during the
aftn/eve hours. The most likely scenario attm is that an MCS
develops farther west and moves into the CWA during the aftn/eve.
Pcpn will end with the passage of the cdfnt. As the midnight
shift noted in their discussion, the models continue to show a
slower progression of the front, therefore low PoPs were retained
through early Thu aftn across the southeastern CWA.
A surface high builds into the region on Thu night and suppresses
the bdry to the south. Meanwhile, a pattern change aloft results
in northwest flow dvlpg on Fri and persisting through the weekend.
There is a chance of rain on Fri/Fri night associated with a
reinforcing cdfnt dropping southward and an upper level vort max.
There is also a chance of rain when the boundary begins to lift
back northward as a wmfnt late this weekend and early next week.
Temperatures will be cooler than average this weekend.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Diurnal cumulus clouds should dissipate early this evening with
surface winds becoming light. There may be some light fog late
tonight/early Wednesday morning. Could not rule out weakening
showers/storms moving into COU Wednesday morning, but it appears
that the better chance of storms will occur Wednesday afternoon
and evening as the atmosphere destabilizes ahead of an approaching
cold front. For now will just include VCTS in the tafs Wednesday
afternoon with diurnal cumulus clouds developing again during the
late morning and afternoon. A strengthening sely surface wind can
be expected on Wednesday.
Specifics for KSTL: Diurnal cumulus clouds will dissipate early
this evening due to the loss of daytime heating. A light surface
wind can be expected tonight. There may be some light fog late
tonight/early Wednesday morning, although the NAM MOS guidance
looks overdone with its forecast of stratus and fog during this
time. Diurnal cumulus clouds will develop again late Wednesday
morning and afternoon with thunderstorms by late afternoon or
early evening. A strengthening sely surface wind can be expected
on Wednesday.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 257 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
A strong low level jet will develop tonight over Plains. Strong
moisture transport coupled with strong and focused isentropic ascent
should help thunderstorms develop over Kansas and Nebraska. This
area of storms will track to the east and should be moving into
northwestern Missouri around sunrise, give or take an hour or two.
It`s likely this area of storms will be weakening as it is moving
into the forecast area and continue to weaken through the late
morning hours. But there may be enough lift and elevated instability
to produce a few marginally severe storms as they are moving into
the area. However, the better chance for anything severe will be
during the afternoon and evening hours. Activity for this time will
be largely dependent on where the morning activity tracks and how
strong it remains later in the day. But for now, it looks like the
morning activity will weaken across northern Missouri and allow for
moderate to strong instability to develop by the afternoon. Forecast
soundings throughout the forecast area show potential for 3000 to
4000 J/kg of CAPE over mainly the eastern portions of the forecast
area. Shear looks marginal, at least earlier in the afternoon, but
should increase into the evening hours as stronger winds aloft,
associated with the upper shortwave, begin to impinge on the area.
Also, winds at the surface and low levels will be veering with time
through the afternoon as the cold front approaches. However, over
the northeastern portion of the forecast area, surface winds may be
backed to the southeast as they will be to the east/northeast of the
surface low. So overall, the best chances for severe storms, and
potentially a few supercells, will be over the northeastern sections
of the forecast area. Further southwest, where winds are more veered
and shear is generally weaker, more multicellular storms are likely.
The biggest hazards from these storms will be from large hail and
damaging winds. The system looks progressive enough that widespread
flood is unlikely, but with anomalously high precipitable water
values locally high amounts and/or rates are likely which would lead
to more of an isolated flash flood threat.
Moisture will be scoured out well to our south in the wake of this
front and as result, we should see some drying out on Thursday.
Another upper shortwave trough and associated front will move
through the area Friday. This should spread another chance for
showers and a few storms to the area. But overall, moisture looks
much more limited than Wednesday, limiting coverage and especially
amounts.
More showers and storms are expected next week with what looks like
a stalled frontal boundary in the region. A broad trough will slowly
move across the region in the first part of next week and provide
enough forcing to give us a good chance for showers and storms.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
VFR conditions will prevail overnight. A line of thunderstorms are
forecast to move through the area tomorrow morning, but timing and
behavior of this potential line is still a bit uncertain...so have
kept the VCTS. Once the line has move through, a few rain showers can
be expected into the afternoon hours. Scattered thunderstorms may
redevelop tomorrow afternoon with winds becoming more northwesterly
behind the front.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...CDB
Aviation...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 257 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
A strong low level jet will develop tonight over Plains. Strong
moisture transport coupled with strong and focused isentropic ascent
should help thunderstorms develop over Kansas and Nebraska. This
area of storms will track to the east and should be moving into
northwestern Missouri around sunrise, give or take an hour or two.
It`s likely this area of storms will be weakening as it is moving
into the forecast area and continue to weaken through the late
morning hours. But there may be enough lift and elevated instability
to produce a few marginally severe storms as they are moving into
the area. However, the better chance for anything severe will be
during the afternoon and evening hours. Activity for this time will
be largely dependent on where the morning activity tracks and how
strong it remains later in the day. But for now, it looks like the
morning activity will weaken across northern Missouri and allow for
moderate to strong instability to develop by the afternoon. Forecast
soundings throughout the forecast area show potential for 3000 to
4000 J/kg of CAPE over mainly the eastern portions of the forecast
area. Shear looks marginal, at least earlier in the afternoon, but
should increase into the evening hours as stronger winds aloft,
associated with the upper shortwave, begin to impinge on the area.
Also, winds at the surface and low levels will be veering with time
through the afternoon as the cold front approaches. However, over
the northeastern portion of the forecast area, surface winds may be
backed to the southeast as they will be to the east/northeast of the
surface low. So overall, the best chances for severe storms, and
potentially a few supercells, will be over the northeastern sections
of the forecast area. Further southwest, where winds are more veered
and shear is generally weaker, more multicellular storms are likely.
The biggest hazards from these storms will be from large hail and
damaging winds. The system looks progressive enough that widespread
flood is unlikely, but with anomalously high precipitable water
values locally high amounts and/or rates are likely which would lead
to more of an isolated flash flood threat.
Moisture will be scoured out well to our south in the wake of this
front and as result, we should see some drying out on Thursday.
Another upper shortwave trough and associated front will move
through the area Friday. This should spread another chance for
showers and a few storms to the area. But overall, moisture looks
much more limited than Wednesday, limiting coverage and especially
amounts.
More showers and storms are expected next week with what looks like
a stalled frontal boundary in the region. A broad trough will slowly
move across the region in the first part of next week and provide
enough forcing to give us a good chance for showers and storms.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
VFR conditions will prevail overnight. A line of thunderstorms are
forecast to move through the area tomorrow morning, but timing and
behavior of this potential line is still a bit uncertain...so have
kept the VCTS. Once the line has move through, a few rain showers can
be expected into the afternoon hours. Scattered thunderstorms may
redevelop tomorrow afternoon with winds becoming more northwesterly
behind the front.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...CDB
Aviation...PMM
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
624 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
...Update to Aviation Discussion for the 00Z TAFS...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Sky has cleared out across the western CWA with a scattered
cumulus field in the eastern Ozarks. The clearing is due to
subsidence in the wake of the upper level system which exited to
the east of the area this morning. The tranquil conditions appear
to be short-lived however and the unsettled pattern and resultant
convective precipitation chances will be the main focus of the
forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
For tonight, will see low pressure strengthen over the central
Plains with a warm front starting to lift north into the forecast
area. Along with that, a 30-40 kt low level jet will be impinging
on the western CWA. Should see elevated overnight convection
develop and may see some fog developing over southern MO as the
higher dewpoints move in south of the warm front. Hail would be
the main strong to severe weather risk tonight with any storms.
Instability will increase on Wednesday with highs in the 80s and
dewpoints climbing into the mid to upper 60s. Should see afternoon
CAPES in the 3000-4000 j/kg range over parts of western MO and
southeast KS. 0-6 shear does not look overly impressive with the
best shear staying off to the west of our CWA, however we will
have a hail and wind risk during the afternoon and nighttime hours
due to the instability and more favorable theta-e differences,
especially over western CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
A cold front and upper level shortwave will push through on
Thursday with remnant showers and thunderstorms moving through,
mainly during the morning hours. Clearing should take place from
west to east during the afternoon as high pressure builds into the
region.
Northwest flow aloft will bring another shortwave and surface
front through the area late Friday into Friday night with the next
chance at thunderstorms.
The flow will become more westerly over the weekend with
additional chances of showers and thunderstorms by Saturday night
into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: An upper level ridge is
currently over the region early this evening, resulting in mostly
sunny skies and warm conditions. The ridge will continue to move
east across the region tonight and through the day on Wednesday as
a storm system moves into the plains.
Warmer and more moist air will advect into the area tonight into
Wednesday. A few thunderstorms are expected to develop due to lift
from the advection, but coverage will be limited and most
locations will likely remain dry tonight into Wednesday.
Therefore, did not have enough confidence to include any mention
of thunder in the TAFS due to the lack of expected coverage from
this activity. Better rain chances will occur with the system to
the west, but that will likely hold off to just after this TAF
period ends.
As moisture increases from the south some light fog may develop
across southern Missouri early Wednesday morning, but should not
last long.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
624 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
...Update to Aviation Discussion for the 00Z TAFS...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Sky has cleared out across the western CWA with a scattered
cumulus field in the eastern Ozarks. The clearing is due to
subsidence in the wake of the upper level system which exited to
the east of the area this morning. The tranquil conditions appear
to be short-lived however and the unsettled pattern and resultant
convective precipitation chances will be the main focus of the
forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
For tonight, will see low pressure strengthen over the central
Plains with a warm front starting to lift north into the forecast
area. Along with that, a 30-40 kt low level jet will be impinging
on the western CWA. Should see elevated overnight convection
develop and may see some fog developing over southern MO as the
higher dewpoints move in south of the warm front. Hail would be
the main strong to severe weather risk tonight with any storms.
Instability will increase on Wednesday with highs in the 80s and
dewpoints climbing into the mid to upper 60s. Should see afternoon
CAPES in the 3000-4000 j/kg range over parts of western MO and
southeast KS. 0-6 shear does not look overly impressive with the
best shear staying off to the west of our CWA, however we will
have a hail and wind risk during the afternoon and nighttime hours
due to the instability and more favorable theta-e differences,
especially over western CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
A cold front and upper level shortwave will push through on
Thursday with remnant showers and thunderstorms moving through,
mainly during the morning hours. Clearing should take place from
west to east during the afternoon as high pressure builds into the
region.
Northwest flow aloft will bring another shortwave and surface
front through the area late Friday into Friday night with the next
chance at thunderstorms.
The flow will become more westerly over the weekend with
additional chances of showers and thunderstorms by Saturday night
into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: An upper level ridge is
currently over the region early this evening, resulting in mostly
sunny skies and warm conditions. The ridge will continue to move
east across the region tonight and through the day on Wednesday as
a storm system moves into the plains.
Warmer and more moist air will advect into the area tonight into
Wednesday. A few thunderstorms are expected to develop due to lift
from the advection, but coverage will be limited and most
locations will likely remain dry tonight into Wednesday.
Therefore, did not have enough confidence to include any mention
of thunder in the TAFS due to the lack of expected coverage from
this activity. Better rain chances will occur with the system to
the west, but that will likely hold off to just after this TAF
period ends.
As moisture increases from the south some light fog may develop
across southern Missouri early Wednesday morning, but should not
last long.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
549 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
A few isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible late this afternoon, but
any pcpn should diminish after sunset. Quiet wx is expected for
most of the evening hours compliments of shortwave ridging aloft.
Convection is expected to develop farther west later tonight
(especially after 06z) due to a strengthening LLJ impinging upon
a boundary. This activity may reach the western CWA before 12z.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Active weather is expected on Wednesday, starting with a round of
SHRA/TSRA during the morning hours which will have formed out
west overnight and then moved into the CWA. There is some
question regarding how far east the morning pcpn will reach
before dissipating.
Assuming that the morning convection does not leave too much
debris cloudiness over the region, temperatures should soar into
the mid to upper 80s on Wed aftn ahead of an approaching cold
front. Depending on cloud cover trends, a few locations in east
central MO and southwest IL may even flirt with 90 degrees. If any
locations do reach 90 degrees tomorrow, climate records indicate
that this would be earlier than average. The mean date of the
first 90 degree day of the calendar year is roughly May 21st for
St. Louis MO, around May 31st for Columbia MO, and near June 6th
for Quincy IL.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop Wed aftn/eve
invof the aforementioned cold front. Models continue to forecast
very high values of CAPE and favorable H7-H5 lapse rates of
6.5-7.5 deg C/km (some models depict even higher values) on Wed
aftn/eve ahead of the front. Although shear values are rather
low /perhaps 20-30 kts at best/ this does not preclude strong to
severe thunderstorms. The high instability on Wed may very well
compensate for the lower shear values, and storms which dvlp could
pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail during the
aftn/eve hours. The most likely scenario attm is that an MCS
develops farther west and moves into the CWA during the aftn/eve.
Pcpn will end with the passage of the cdfnt. As the midnight
shift noted in their discussion, the models continue to show a
slower progression of the front, therefore low PoPs were retained
through early Thu aftn across the southeastern CWA.
A surface high builds into the region on Thu night and suppresses
the bdry to the south. Meanwhile, a pattern change aloft results
in northwest flow dvlpg on Fri and persisting through the weekend.
There is a chance of rain on Fri/Fri night associated with a
reinforcing cdfnt dropping southward and an upper level vort max.
There is also a chance of rain when the boundary begins to lift
back northward as a wmfnt late this weekend and early next week.
Temperatures will be cooler than average this weekend.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Diurnal cumulus clouds should dissipate early this evening with
surface winds becoming light. There may be some light fog late
tonight/early Wednesday morning. Could not rule out weakening
showers/storms moving into COU Wednesday morning, but it appears
that the better chance of storms will occur Wednesday afternoon
and evening as the atmosphere destabilizes ahead of an approaching
cold front. For now will just include VCTS in the tafs Wednesday
afternoon with diurnal cumulus clouds developing again during the
late morning and afternoon. A strengthening sely surface wind can
be expected on Wednesday.
Specifics for KSTL: Diurnal cumulus clouds will dissipate early
this evening due to the loss of daytime heating. A light surface
wind can be expected tonight. There may be some light fog late
tonight/early Wednesday morning, although the NAM MOS guidance
looks overdone with its forecast of stratus and fog during this
time. Diurnal cumulus clouds will develop again late Wednesday
morning and afternoon with thunderstorms by late afternoon or
early evening. A strengthening sely surface wind can be expected
on Wednesday.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
340 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
A few isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible late this afternoon, but
any pcpn should diminish after sunset. Quiet wx is expected for
most of the evening hours compliments of shortwave ridging aloft.
Convection is expected to develop farther west later tonight
(especially after 06z) due to a strengthening LLJ impinging upon
a boundary. This activity may reach the western CWA before 12z.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Active weather is expected on Wednesday, starting with a round of
SHRA/TSRA during the morning hours which will have formed out
west overnight and then moved into the CWA. There is some
question regarding how far east the morning pcpn will reach
before dissipating.
Assuming that the morning convection does not leave too much
debris cloudiness over the region, temperatures should soar into
the mid to upper 80s on Wed aftn ahead of an approaching cold
front. Depending on cloud cover trends, a few locations in east
central MO and southwest IL may even flirt with 90 degrees. If any
locations do reach 90 degrees tomorrow, climate records indicate
that this would be earlier than average. The mean date of the
first 90 degree day of the calendar year is roughly May 21st for
St. Louis MO, around May 31st for Columbia MO, and near June 6th
for Quincy IL.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop Wed aftn/eve
invof the aforementioned cold front. Models continue to forecast
very high values of CAPE and favorable H7-H5 lapse rates of
6.5-7.5 deg C/km (some models depict even higher values) on Wed
aftn/eve ahead of the front. Although shear values are rather
low /perhaps 20-30 kts at best/ this does not preclude strong to
severe thunderstorms. The high instability on Wed may very well
compensate for the lower shear values, and storms which dvlp could
pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail during the
aftn/eve hours. The most likely scenario attm is that an MCS
develops farther west and moves into the CWA during the aftn/eve.
Pcpn will end with the passage of the cdfnt. As the midnight
shift noted in their discussion, the models continue to show a
slower progression of the front, therefore low PoPs were retained
through early Thu aftn across the southeastern CWA.
A surface high builds into the region on Thu night and suppresses
the bdry to the south. Meanwhile, a pattern change aloft results
in northwest flow dvlpg on Fri and persisting through the weekend.
There is a chance of rain on Fri/Fri night associated with a
reinforcing cdfnt dropping southward and an upper level vort max.
There is also a chance of rain when the boundary begins to lift
back northward as a wmfnt late this weekend and early next week.
Temperatures will be cooler than average this weekend.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Showers, thunderstorms have moved out of taf sites. So just some
lingering MVFR cigs for KUIN and KCPS that should lift to VFR by
20z. Otherwise, south to southwest winds to become light and
variable after 00z Wednesday. Warm front to setup over forecast
area on Wednesday morning with winds becoming southeasterly
towards mid morning.
Specifics for KSTL:
Showers, thunderstorms have moved out of metro area. So just some
lingering MVFR cigs at KCPS that should lift to VFR by 20z.
Otherwise, southwest winds to become light and variable after 02z
Wednesday. Warm front to setup over forecast area on Wednesday
morning with winds becoming southeasterly by 16z Wednesday then
veer to the southwest with thunderstorms developing ahead of next
system. Timing and coverage hard to pin down, so just have
vicinity ts at KSTL after 21z Wednesday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
257 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 257 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
A strong low level jet will develop tonight over Plains. Strong
moisture transport coupled with strong and focused isentropic ascent
should help thunderstorms develop over Kansas and Nebraska. This
area of storms will track to the east and should be moving into
northwestern Missouri around sunrise, give or take an hour or two.
It`s likely this area of storms will be weakening as it is moving
into the forecast area and continue to weaken through the late
morning hours. But there may be enough lift and elevated instability
to produce a few marginally severe storms as they are moving into
the area. However, the better chance for anything severe will be
during the afternoon and evening hours. Activity for this time will
be largely dependent on where the morning activity tracks and how
strong it remains later in the day. But for now, it looks like the
morning activity will weaken across northern Missouri and allow for
moderate to strong instability to develop by the afternoon. Forecast
soundings throughout the forecast area show potential for 3000 to
4000 J/kg of CAPE over mainly the eastern portions of the forecast
area. Shear looks marginal, at least earlier in the afternoon, but
should increase into the evening hours as stronger winds aloft,
associated with the upper shortwave, begin to impinge on the area.
Also, winds at the surface and low levels will be veering with time
through the afternoon as the cold front approaches. However, over
the northeastern portion of the forecast area, surface winds may be
backed to the southeast as they will be to the east/northeast of the
surface low. So overall, the best chances for severe storms, and
potentially a few supercells, will be over the northeastern sections
of the forecast area. Further southwest, where winds are more veered
and shear is generally weaker, more multicellular storms are likely.
The biggest hazards from these storms will be from large hail and
damaging winds. The system looks progressive enough that widespread
flood is unlikely, but with anomalously high precipitable water
values locally high amounts and/or rates are likely which would lead
to more of an isolated flash flood threat.
Moisture will be scoured out well to our south in the wake of this
front and as result, we should see some drying out on Thursday.
Another upper shortwave trough and associated front will move
through the area Friday. This should spread another chance for
showers and a few storms to the area. But overall, moisture looks
much more limited than Wednesday, limiting coverage and especially
amounts.
More showers and storms are expected next week with what looks like
a stalled frontal boundary in the region. A broad trough will slowly
move across the region in the first part of next week and provide
enough forcing to give us a good chance for showers and storms.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
VFR conditions are expected this afternoon through the overnight. A
possible area of thunderstorms may move into northern Missouri around
sunrise. For now have just mentioned VCTS groups for this as timing
and location are still uncertain. It also looks like low MVFR
ceilings will be advecting northward into this system and ahead of
the main cold front.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
234 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Sky has cleared out across the western CWA with a scattered
cumulus field in the eastern Ozarks. The clearing is due to
subsidence in the wake of the upper level system which exited to
the east of the area this morning. The tranquil conditions appear
to be short-lived however and the unsettled pattern and resultant
convective precipitaiton chances will be the main focus of the
forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
For tonight, will see low pressure strengthen over the central
Plains with a warm front starting to lift north into the forecast
area. Along with that, a 30-40 kt low level jet will be impinging
on the western CWA. Should see elevated overnight convection
develop and may see some fog developing over southern MO as the
higher dewpoints move in south of the warm front. Hail would be
the main strong to severe weather risk tonight with any storms.
Instabililty will increase on Wednesday with highs in the 80s and
dewpoints climbing into the mid to upper 60s. Should see afternoon
CAPES in the 3000-4000 j/kg range over parts of western MO and
southeast KS. 0-6 shear does not look overly impressive with the
best shear staying off to the west of our CWA, however we will
have a hail and wind risk during the afternoon and nighttime hours
due to the instability and more favorable theta-e differences,
especially over western CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
A cold front and upper level shortwave will push through on
Thursday with remnant showers and thunderstorms moving through,
mainly during the morning hours. Clearing should take place from
west to east during the afternoon as high pressure builds into the
region.
Northwest flow aloft will bring another shortwave and surface
front through the area late Friday into Friday night with the next
chance at thunderstorms.
The flow will become more westerly over the weekend with
additional chances of showers and thunderstorms by Saturday night
into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.
Southwest breezes will shift to the south southeast tonight and
become light.
Otherwise yesterday`s storm system continues to exit the area,
bringing fair weather to the Ozarks.
Safe Travels.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
217 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue May 10 2016
An upper level short wave trough will continue to move east across
central Missouri this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue this morning across central Missouri and the eastern
Missouri Ozarks along the nose of a low level jet stream
associated with that wave. This activity will diminish from west
to east as the morning progresses.
By this afternoon, an upper level short wave ridge and associated
warming mid-level temperatures should effectively shut down
thunderstorm potential for most areas. There may be an outside
shot for an isolated storm across far south-central Missouri or
the eastern Ozarks where convective inhibition will be weaker.
With plenty of sunshine expected by afternoon, high temperatures
today will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s...with a few
middle 80s readings expected back towards I-49.
Isentropic upglide will then increase tonight as a low level jet
stream noses into the area in conjunction with a surface warm
front lifting north. Inspection of forecast soundings indicates
potential for scattered thunderstorms with only a weak capping
inversion present for parcels lifted in the 825-700 mb layer.
Additionally, there will be the potential for patchy fog as low
level moisture begins to increase.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Wednesday and Wednesday night will be interesting across the
region. First off, there appears to be the potential for a
mesoscale convective system (MCS) to develop across northeastern
Kansas during the predawn hours and then slide to the east-
southeast towards central Missouri during the morning hours.
Meanwhile, the atmosphere will become highly unstable by the
afternoon with MLCAPEs easily reaching into the 2000-3000 J/kg
range. Values may even exceed 3000 J/kg across western Missouri
as low level moisture begins to pool ahead of an approaching cold
front.
It is quite possible that overnight/early morning convection
(possibly including that MCS) could throw out outflow boundaries
that trigger convection into the afternoon. Additionally, the
aforementioned cold front will likely initiate convection during
the late afternoon/early evening across southeastern Kansas and
west-central Missouri. The setup then remains favorable for what
should be a squall line pushing southeast across much of the area
Wednesday night.
Storms that initiate in the afternoon and evening will have a
decent potential for damaging wind gusts given the presence of
high theta-e differentials (25-35 Kelvin). While deep layer shear
will be on the weak side, there will be a threat for some large
hail given the expected high amounts of CAPE.
Outside of the storms, Wednesday may be the first day with a true
summer feel to it. High temperatures will make it into the lower
to middle 80s with surface dew points in the middle to perhaps
even upper 60s. This will result in heat indices getting into the
upper 80s over some areas.
Cooler weather and a drier air mass will then return to the
Ozarks to finish the work week. Models then bring another front
through the area Friday night with perhaps another quick round of
showers and thunderstorms.
The setup for late this weekend and early next week then continues
to look interesting. Global models indicate the upper level
flow becoming either westerly or west-southwesterly with several
embedded short wave troughs. This would support that front hanging
up and becoming quasi-stationary somewhere across the region. If
and where this happens, there would be an increasing risk for
heavy rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions through most of this evening. However, fog
development can be expected tonight as a warm front lifts across
the region. Visibilities could fall to around 1 mile at times.
Its also possible that a storm or two forms along this front as
well.
Otherwise look for a wind shift to the south at 0 to 7 mph through
the overnight hours.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
217 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue May 10 2016
An upper level short wave trough will continue to move east across
central Missouri this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue this morning across central Missouri and the eastern
Missouri Ozarks along the nose of a low level jet stream
associated with that wave. This activity will diminish from west
to east as the morning progresses.
By this afternoon, an upper level short wave ridge and associated
warming mid-level temperatures should effectively shut down
thunderstorm potential for most areas. There may be an outside
shot for an isolated storm across far south-central Missouri or
the eastern Ozarks where convective inhibition will be weaker.
With plenty of sunshine expected by afternoon, high temperatures
today will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s...with a few
middle 80s readings expected back towards I-49.
Isentropic upglide will then increase tonight as a low level jet
stream noses into the area in conjunction with a surface warm
front lifting north. Inspection of forecast soundings indicates
potential for scattered thunderstorms with only a weak capping
inversion present for parcels lifted in the 825-700 mb layer.
Additionally, there will be the potential for patchy fog as low
level moisture begins to increase.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Wednesday and Wednesday night will be interesting across the
region. First off, there appears to be the potential for a
mesoscale convective system (MCS) to develop across northeastern
Kansas during the predawn hours and then slide to the east-
southeast towards central Missouri during the morning hours.
Meanwhile, the atmosphere will become highly unstable by the
afternoon with MLCAPEs easily reaching into the 2000-3000 J/kg
range. Values may even exceed 3000 J/kg across western Missouri
as low level moisture begins to pool ahead of an approaching cold
front.
It is quite possible that overnight/early morning convection
(possibly including that MCS) could throw out outflow boundaries
that trigger convection into the afternoon. Additionally, the
aforementioned cold front will likely initiate convection during
the late afternoon/early evening across southeastern Kansas and
west-central Missouri. The setup then remains favorable for what
should be a squall line pushing southeast across much of the area
Wednesday night.
Storms that initiate in the afternoon and evening will have a
decent potential for damaging wind gusts given the presence of
high theta-e differentials (25-35 Kelvin). While deep layer shear
will be on the weak side, there will be a threat for some large
hail given the expected high amounts of CAPE.
Outside of the storms, Wednesday may be the first day with a true
summer feel to it. High temperatures will make it into the lower
to middle 80s with surface dew points in the middle to perhaps
even upper 60s. This will result in heat indices getting into the
upper 80s over some areas.
Cooler weather and a drier air mass will then return to the
Ozarks to finish the work week. Models then bring another front
through the area Friday night with perhaps another quick round of
showers and thunderstorms.
The setup for late this weekend and early next week then continues
to look interesting. Global models indicate the upper level
flow becoming either westerly or west-southwesterly with several
embedded short wave troughs. This would support that front hanging
up and becoming quasi-stationary somewhere across the region. If
and where this happens, there would be an increasing risk for
heavy rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions through most of this evening. However, fog
development can be expected tonight as a warm front lifts across
the region. Visibilities could fall to around 1 mile at times.
Its also possible that a storm or two forms along this front as
well.
Otherwise look for a wind shift to the south at 0 to 7 mph through
the overnight hours.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
204 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Regional radars are continuing to show on area of showers
and thunderstorms moving northeast across far southeast Missouri into
far southern Illinois. A second area of showers and thunderstorms
are occurring over central Missouri. Both of these areas of
convection are being generated in pockets of low level moisture
convergence ahead of a shortwave trough currently entering western
MO. This trough will move across the state early this morning and
into the Ohio Valley by early this afternoon. Still cannot rule out
a few strong or possibly severe thunderstorm today, particularly
over southeast Missouri into south central Illinois, where MUCAPES
will will reach 1000-2000 J/kg and deep layer shear will reach 40-
50kts per the latest run of the RAP. Both the SPC and experimental
runs of the HRRR are showing a convective complex moving across the
central part of the CWA during the late morning and early afternoon
hours. Chances of rain behind the trough will drop off from west to
east over Missouri this afternoon as subsidence begins to set in
wake of the trough.
Temperatures today will be warmest over central MO where clouds may
break out behind the trough allowing to temperatures above normal.
Temperatures will be coolest in the east where the clouds and rain
will hold on the the longest.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Looks like tonight should be relatively quiet compared to the past
few days. Guidance has the shortwave which is currently over
eastern Kansas finally moving into the Ohio Valley by early evening
with shortwave ridging building overhead. GFS and NAM continue to
print out light QPF over southern sections of the CWFA. This looks
like it`s due to low level warm advection and moisture convergence
at 850mb. The LLJ isn`t exactly screaming over the area...only
clocking in at 10-20kts, but it`s almost directly cross-isothermal
so there`s definitely going to be some lift. Instability looks to
be confined to areas along and south of I-70...unless you believe the
NAM which conceptually just looks too unstable too far north. Still
think it`s worth a mention of isolated north of I-70 and scattered
south.
Wednesday still looks very unstable ahead of the cold front. GFS is
forecasting 2m dewpoints up into the mid and upper 60s. With
temperatures likely climbing up into the mid and upper 80s the CAPE
forecast by the models continues to be very strong. Both the GFS
and NAM are developing SBCABE values in excess of 5000 J/Kg in parts
of western and central Missouri. Even MLCAPE on both models is
topping out at 3500-4000 J/Kg. The only real limiting factor for
severe weather is lack of strong deep-layer shear with 0-6km only
around 20-30kts in the afternoon. That being said, with that amount
of instability there shouldn`t be any trouble getting a severe MCS
going over western Missouri which will move east through the
afternoon and evening. Instability drops after sunset, but MUCAPE
still stays up in the 1500-2000 J/Kg range. Don`t think the
thunderstorm threat will totally end until the front pushes through
Thursday morning. The front is a little slower than what I saw on
my model runs yesterday. Slight chance PoPs were added back to the
forecast on Thursday morning over southeast zones for a few hours by
yesterday`s day crew...and will bump up even a bit more to chance
based on the newest guidance.
High pressure will build south across the area Thursday and we
should be cooler and drier for most of Thursday into Friday. Another
shortwave will move across the Midwest in northwest flow aloft late
Friday and Friday night. This will send a reinforcing cold front
south into the area. Latest models are faster with this front than
yesterday mornings runs. Front is all the way through Missouri into
Arkansas by early Saturday morning where yesterday the front didn`t
pass through until Saturday afternoon/evening. Have therefore
shifted PoPs back 12 hours to Friday night. Another surface high
will move across the region Saturday night through Sunday morning.
Return flow develops quickly as the surface ridge moves into the
southeastern CONUS. The flow aloft becomes more zonal with a low
level baroclinic zone setting up south of the region near the
Missouri/Arkansas border. 850mb flow from the south should bring
plenty of moisture back up into the baroclinic zone which will bring
rain back to the region...most likely later in the day Sunday and
into Sunday night and Monday. Below normal temperatures look likely
in the medium range due to the northwest flow and increasing chances
for rain Sunday and Monday.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Showers, thunderstorms have moved out of taf sites. So just some
lingering MVFR cigs for KUIN and KCPS that should lift to VFR by
20z. Otherwise, south to southwest winds to become light and
variable after 00z Wednesday. Warm front to setup over forecast
area on Wednesday morning with winds becoming southeasterly
towards mid morning.
Specifics for KSTL:
Showers, thunderstorms have moved out of metro area. So just some
lingering MVFR cigs at KCPS that should lift to VFR by 20z.
Otherwise, southwest winds to become light and variable after 02z
Wednesday. Warm front to setup over forecast area on Wednesday
morning with winds becoming southeasterly by 16z Wednesday then
veer to the southwest with thunderstorms developing ahead of next
system. Timing and coverage hard to pin down, so just have
vicinity ts at KSTL after 21z Wednesday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
910 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THU...
UPDATE...GOING THE GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE DEPICTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING THOUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT...WITH A WELL DEVELOPED DRY SLOT HANGING NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER. BIGGEST TWEAK WAS TO COOL TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PHILLIPS...GARFIELD...AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES GIVEN ALREADY COOL
TEMPS AND RECENT SNOWFALL. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS A BIT BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS AND THE CURRENT RADAR PICTURE. CURRENT HIGHLIGHT
PACKAGES FOR WINTER WEATHER AND LAKE WINDS LOOKS ON TRACK.
GILCHRIST.
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
BASED ON RADAR AND WATER VAPOR OVERLAYS AND TRENDS. BOTH PRODUCTS
SHOWED A DRY SLOT MOVING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. CENTER
OF THE LOW HAS STALLED OVER THE GARFIELD/ROSEBUD COUNTY LINE. GFS,
NAM, AND RAP PRODUCTS SEEM TO SYNCED UP VERY WELL TODAY WITH LOW
AND DRY SLOT AND ARE CARRYING IT NORTHEAST FROM HERE ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND CONTINUING THE RAINFALL TO THE
WEST OF IT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MDOT CAMERAS ARE STILL SHOWING FREEZING LEVELS LOW ENOUGH THAT
SNOW HAS ACCUMULATED AT LUFTBUROUGH HILL AND MALTASOUTH. HOWEVER
RADAR TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES PREDICTIONS SHOULD BEGIN
TRANSITIONING ANY NEW PRECIPITATION BACK INTO RAIN SLOWLY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WHILE NO CGS HAVE BEEN EVIDENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST... MODELS
CONTINUE TO PLACE SOME CAPE ACROSS THESE AREAS OF THE CWA AND THE
DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH IS FORCING SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS OUT JUST
AHEAD OF IT SO THE POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS.
THE GLASGOW AREAS HAS BEEN THE MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL IMPACT WITH
2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN AND THIS TREND WITH AREAS WEST IN THE CWA
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH THE LOW AT ITS WEST MOST POSITIONING AND
MOVING NORTHEAST, THIS WILL FORM A NEW TROWAL EXTENDING NORTH/SOUTH
FROM PHILLIPS COUNTY THROUGH THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER. THIS WILL
FORCE A LOOKOUT FOR AREAL FLOODING TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY... AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA IT IS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE THE TROWAL OFF TO THE EAST AND WITH THE
RAINSHOWERS QUICKLY FOLLOWING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... CLEARING WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT
LEADING TO TEMPERATURE DROP OFFS NEAR FREEZING FOR AREAS THAT SEE
CLEAR SKIES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AS
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST A NEW SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH A A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GAH
.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH TUE...
MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TODAY ONLY TO THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND DIRECTS THE
NEXT PUSH OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE MOST ACCUMULATION FOR OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES. INCREASED POPS TO LINE UP WITH THE BEST MODEL
CONSENSUS.
THE SMALLER-SCALE DISTURBANCES RETREAT FURTHER NORTHWARD AND
MERGE WITH THE LARGER HUDSON BAY LOW WHILE A SMALL-SCALE SHORT-
WAVE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS SYSTEMS ARE SET TO IMPACT NORTHEAST MONTANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS BUT ITS PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH MONTANA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A LITTLE RAINFALL FROM
THIS FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND...BUT SO
FAR IT LOOKS AS IF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO OUR
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WITH A RIDGE SET UP TO OUR WEST AND A RATHER DEEP LOW OVER
ONTARIO.
HICKFORD
&&
.AVIATION...
A LARGE CYCLONIC STORM SYSTEM...STALLED OVER EASTERN MONTANA...
WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE TERMINAL AREAS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN...STRONG WINDS...LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS & VISIBILITIES.
EXPECT THE RAIN AND WIND TO FINALLY CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION BY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCT
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM A WET LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT
RECORD SETTING RAINFALL TO MUCH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. CREEKS AND
STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH AND SOME FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED.
RAINS WILL LIKELY WASH OUT A FEW ROADS AND FLOOD FIELDS AND LOW
LYING AREAS.
A SMALL STREAM FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
MCCONE...GARFIELD...PRAIRIE...VALLEY...AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES.
IN ADDITION BEAVER CREEK NEAR SACO AND HINSDALE WILL SEE A
DRAMATIC RISE TO BANKFULL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MINOR FLOODING
IS EXPECTED ON BEAVER CREEK AT HINSDALE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE MILK RIVER FROM DODSON TO NASHUA WILL SEE A DRAMATIC RISE AS
WELL. THE MILK RIVER AT GLASGOW IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO MINOR FLOOD
STAGE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...GARFIELD...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PETROLEUM.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
816 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
MADE A COUPLE OF CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. FIRST...LOWERED TEMPERATURES
FOR TONITE AS TEMPS HAVE FALLEN QUICKER THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED.
SECOND...UPPED THE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION. AS
OF 8PM...RADAR STILL SHOWING PRETTY GOOD RETURNS ACROSS
YELLOWSTONE COUNTY. PER HRRR GUIDANCE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST TOMORROW. WINDS REMAIN
FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS SE MT THIS EVENING...AS WELL. EXPECT THE GUSTINESS
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAKING FOR VERY CHILLY CONDITIONS. SINGER
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
WOUND UP STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION FLOWING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A DRY
SLOT OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA. EXPECT A TRANSITION EASTWARD OF THE
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AS THE WRAP AROUND FOLLOWS THE LOW
MIGRATION. PRECIPITATION RATES ARE NOT TOO INTENSE AND WHILE SOME
AREAS IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT...DO NOT
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MORE THAN AN INCH AS GROUND IS STILL
PRETTY WARM. WINDS WILL LET UP A BIT OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
INVERSIONS FORM.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM WINDING DOWN AS THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BUT WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY IN THE EARLY HOURS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA. SUNSHINE WILL
HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BUT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH WILL KEEP IT FROM FEELING MUCH WARMER.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO MONTANA. DRY DAY EARLY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S BUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
BY FRIDAY WE WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOL. HIGHS SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES REALLY DIAL
BACK ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY. RIDGING BRIEFLY SLIDES
IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A WEAK UPPER LOW
APPROACHES SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND BEGINS TO BE ABSORBED BY THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE WEAK
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE SOUTHERLY TRACK...MOST PRECIP
SUNDAY-TUES LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF I-90 AND MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG
THE ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE SOUTHERN MONTANA BORDER. WALSH
&&
.AVIATION...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT ALL ROUTES OVERNIGHT...WITH AT
LEAST PERIODIC MVFR CIGS. PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...BRINGING LOCALIZED IFR TO LIFR CIG AND VIS. PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...SLOWLY
TAPERING OF FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. GILSTAD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035/056 037/069 040/054 038/060 041/057 041/058 040/062
71/N 01/B 42/W 12/W 23/T 33/W 22/W
LVM 030/055 035/066 038/057 036/059 037/054 035/056 036/062
41/B 13/T 42/T 23/T 44/T 43/T 32/T
HDN 034/056 032/069 039/055 036/061 039/060 039/061 039/064
82/W 01/B 43/W 11/B 23/T 33/W 22/W
MLS 035/053 036/065 039/054 035/061 039/062 041/062 042/064
96/W 01/B 42/W 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 034/052 033/067 039/054 034/059 038/060 039/060 038/062
54/W 10/U 42/W 11/B 12/W 22/W 22/W
BHK 032/049 032/059 034/052 032/059 035/059 037/060 038/060
76/W 11/B 42/W 01/B 11/B 11/B 22/W
SHR 033/053 033/066 038/054 036/057 038/054 037/055 037/058
32/W 11/U 33/W 22/W 34/T 44/W 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
822 PM PDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST AND REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...A SHOWER POPPED UP EAST OF INDEPENDENCE IN INYO COUNTY BUT
WAS ALREADY DIMINISHING. THE HRRR ACTUALLY DEPICTED A SHOWER ROUGHLY
IN THAT LOCATION BUT NOTHING AFTER 04Z. SO...NOT WORTH UPDATING FOR
THAT IN MY OPINION. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY AND
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES PICKED UP A BIT MORE THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND IT LOOKS LIKE THEY MAY STAY GUSTY FOR A
WHILE. I UPDATED TO INCREASE WINDS A BIT IN THOSE AREAS TONIGHT. NO
OTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED. -HARRISON-
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
300 PM PDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN TOO
STABLE TO ANYTHING TO DEVELOP INTO SHOWERS. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THE HELPED PRODUCE THESE CLOUDS
WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BRINGING SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE WARMEST DAY
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS WE START TO FEEL THE INFLUENCES OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RECORD LEVELS AND BELOW ANY HEAT
WARNING CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL HELP INCREASE
SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE INCREASE IN WIND WILL OFFSET THE LOWERING OF HEIGHTS
LEADING TO A MINOR DROP IN TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING DOWN BACKSIDE OF TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT A BROAD WEAK TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ON SOME
ADDITIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH SPEEDS UP TO 7KTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOUTHWEST AFTER 03Z THROUGH 08Z AROUND 6KTS. A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND 8Z-9Z THIS EVENING TURNING THE
WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST UP TO 10KTS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BUT DECREASE BY LATE MORNING. SKC-
FEW100 THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10KTS THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST AFTER 8Z BEHIND A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS UP TO
12KTS EXPECTED. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. SKC-FEW100 THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PIERCE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
204 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. BETTER
RAIN CHANCES MATERIALIZE ON THURSDAY AS A FRONT DROPS INTO THE
AREA, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. DRIER AIR IS SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND AS IS A SLIGHT COOLDOWN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 640 PM SUNDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS AND CUT BACK ON AREAL
COVERAGE FOR AREAS WHERE WE DID HAVE POPS FOR THIS EVENING. COLUMN
JUST LOOKS TOO DRY FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO OCCUR AND LATEST
HI-RES MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NOTHING DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. HAVE
CHANGED WORDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM ISOLATED/SCATTERED TO
REFLECT INCREASED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE WILL DROP POPS COMPLETELY WITH NEXT UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE MAIN CONCERN/CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN MORE BULLISH AND CONVECTIVE CUMULUS
ARE UNDERWAY. SEEMS PROFILES NEED A LITTLE MORE PRIMING FROM MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SET TO ADVANCE INTO THE AREA. HAVE HELD POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS. SPC HAS PLACED THE NORTHERN
MOST AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK. BEYOND THIS ACTIVITY LATER
TONIGHT...ALL IS QUIET. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ONCE AGAIN WENT JUST
ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING OR WHAT CAN BE
INTERPRETED AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
FOR THE SHORT TERM. WITH PW VALUES HOVERING TOWARD ONE INCH AND
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL VELOCITIES...A DRY FORECAST IS IN
ORDER. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STILL ON THE WARM SIDE FOR MONDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD 90S. IT LOOKS LIKE JUST ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY TO COOL READINGS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL, TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THE BEACHES WILL
ENJOY A HEALTHY SEA BREEZE. THIS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST ON
THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTAINING SMALL SCALE IMPULSES. A COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. THURSDAY WILL TURN OUT A BIT
MORE CLOUDY AND WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THIS FRONT MAY MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME
SLIGHTLY BOLSTERED PVA ALOFT. THIS PERIOD NOW REPRESENTS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE LONG TERM BUT MAY ALSO LEAD TO A
POSSIBLY RAIN-FREE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...BASICALLY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THRUOUT THE 24 HR
VALID TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD.
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED WEST TO EAST LIES ACROSS
NC...JUST NORTH OF THE ILM NC TERMINALS. THIS POSITION WILL
PERSIST THRU TUE. CONVECTION THAT DOES FIRE WILL BASICALLY REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS. WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH OCCASIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE ILM NC TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...ALSO EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU TODAY. WITH
INSTABILITY LACKING...IE PROGGED CAPE WELL BELOW 1K THIS AFTN...
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP OUT THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION ALTOGETHER. AS
FOR WINDS...LOOKING AT WSW-SW 5 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS
MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COASTAL TERMINALS WHERE
WSW 5 KT BACKS TO SSW 10 TO 15 KT WITH G18 KT DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE FROM EARLY THIS AFTN AND INTO THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED-FRI
DUE TO SCT SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY ITS
PASSAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
RATHER ROUTINE OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL. A BACKDOOR FRONT
SHOULD`T MAKE ENOUGH PROGRESS SOUTH TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...GENERALLY STEADY STATE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE OVERNIGHT MONDAY VIA LOW LEVEL JETTING. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY ...WEST-EAST ELONGATED HIGH OFFSHORE WILL MAKE
FOR RATHER LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND WAVES WILL BE QUITE SMALL AND COEXIST WITH A MINOR ESE WELL
FOR A TOTAL DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 3 FT. THE HIGH MOVES
EASTWARD AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY BUT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ENTERS THE CAROLINAS. THESE TWO OFFSET EACH OTHER WITH RESPECT TO
THE GRADIENT LOCALLY AND EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COAST MUCH OF FRIDAY
VEERING FLOW TO WESTERLY AND SHAVING A FEW KNOTS OFF OF OVERALL
SPEEDS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON AND WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. THE SOUTHERN BEACHES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH WILL BE CLOSE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...REK/MBB/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
326 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE PLACEMENT AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...MAINLY SE ND. OTHER
CONCERN IS DIMINISHING THREAT FOR THUNDER. HRRR IS (FINALLY)
BEGINNING TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON TRUE RADAR TRENDS AND WILL
USE HRRR AS INITIAL GUIDANCE THROUGH 00ZZ...FOLLOWED BY FCST BLEND
FOR REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM.
UPPER LOW OVER WRN SD AND SE BNDRY LVL FLOW RESULTING IN DECENT
H850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS SRN MN...WEAKENING INTO FAR SRN
VALLEY. PWATS IN THIS ZONE ARE AROUND AN INCH WITH RADAR DEPICTING
A LINE OF SHOWERS FROM VALLEY CITY THROUGH ST CLOUD MIN...RIGHT
AHEAD OF BAND OF 1 INCH PWATS. EXPECT THIS BAND TO LIFT NORTH
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH AND BAND NOT
EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES FURTHER NORTH...HENCE
DIMINISHING POPS BY MID EVENING. DO EXPECT SOME BREAK IN ACTIVITY
IN THE WAHPETON TO ELBOW LAKE AREA BY EARLY EVENING.
UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH INTO SW ND BY MORNING AND MERGES WITH WRN
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SW MT. BY MID TUE MORNING A STRONGER
UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF MILES CITY MT...DRIFTING
SLOWLY EAST INTO SW ND BY 03Z WED THEN LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO N
CNTRL ND BY MID DAY WED. WAVES OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE VALLEY AS WEAK VORTICES ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND
MOISTURE FETCH FROM CNTRL PLAINS BRINGS SOME MOISTURE INTO
NORTHERN TIER. MAIN AXIS OF GULF MOISTURE DOES HOWEVER SHIFT EAST
OF AREA BY NOON WED. SCT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE VALLEY AS
WELL AS IN THE FAR NW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER TURTLE
MTN REGION. POTENTIAL FOR SOME COLD AIR FUNNEL ACTIVITY DOES EXIST
W AND NW OF DEVILS LAKE (SHOULD REMAIN W OF OUR AREA).
ALSO CAN EXPECT A COOLING TRENDS WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
COOLING TREND ACROSS REGION AND PDS OF SCT SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN
ZONES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN PORTIONS OF NE ND BY FRI
MORNING...BRINING A POTENTIAL FOR FROST EARLY FRI MORNING.
SPLIT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
WESTERN CANADA DE-AMPLIFIES. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THEN WEAKEN AT DAY 7.
THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE GFS WAS
VACILLATING OVER THE AREA FOR FRI. BY SAT THE ECMWF WAS
FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO ON FRI AND MON AND
DECREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES ON SUN. HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASE A
DEGREE OR TWO ON SAT FROM THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED A BAND OF MVFR CIGS OVER
NORTHERN SD. BAND WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH ABOUT 10-15 KNOTS.
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ESSENTIALLY A CLEAR SKY WAS OVER THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE NORTH
MAINLY OVER EASTERN ND FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
MOVE NORTH INTO WEST CENTRAL MN ON TUE MORNING. SOME IFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR OVER THE THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR TUE MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM FOR SECTIONS OF
NW MN WITH DRY FUELS...RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT
RANGE... AND SE WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH (GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ALONG
AND WEST OF THE VALLEY). FARTHER SOUTH IN MINNESOTA...INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND APPROACHING RAIN WILL KEEP RH VALUES HIGHER AND
REDUCE OVERALL WILDFIRE THREAT.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT WILL DIMINISH WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES HIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-002-004-
005-007>009-013>017-022>024.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
FIRE WEATHER...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
115 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW LIFTING VERY SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA CONTINUES TO GENERATE A BAND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN SD/SOUTHERN ND WHERE MID LEVEL LIFT IS COUPLED WITH
STRONG THERMAL UPGLIDE FLOW EAST OF A SFC TROUGH. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE VERSUS A
CONCENTRATED BAND AS LOW LEVEL LIFT BROADENS OUT AND THE CLOSED
LOW MORPHS INTO AN OPEN SHORT WAVE.
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...CURRENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES NOT MUCH
MUCAPE THOUGH ELEVATED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS THERE. CAPE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH SO COUPLED WITH THE
FORCING MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 829 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
QUICK UPDATE TO POPS FOR OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 13
UTC...BLENDED THEREAFTER TO A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 10-12
UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON ONGOING CONVECTION
THIS MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION BAND WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS ADDRESSED WELL...WITH IT
GRADUALLY PUSHING IN THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SMOKE
DISSIPATING TODAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND COLORADO
AND WESTERN PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WAS A LOW OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING FROM SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW WAS IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CANADIAN LOW/TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL MONTANA. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN FIRES HAD BEGUN MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA TO THE EAST...AS
WINDS ALOFT FROM THE SOUTH CONTINUED TO STEER THE SMOKE AWAY.
EXPECT SMOKE TO BE MAINLY OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO JAMES VALLEY
MAINLY THIS MORNING...AND BE GONE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
WY/CO/SD/NE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY...DIGGING THE
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SOUTHEASTWARD AND PHASING THE TWO
TOGETHER INTO ONE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MONTANA/WYOMING BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AND REACHING THE NORTH DAKOTA/MONTANA BORDER BY
TUESDAY EVENING.
TODAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
MOVING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND REACHING SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND DAYBREAK. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE 60S SOUTH TO THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH DEVELOPING TODAY.
TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS/MONTANA WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED WITH A
STACKED SURFACE LOW...STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP SURROUNDING THE
SYSTEM. SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NAM IS DEPICTING BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE OF 200-300 J/KG AHEAD OF A DRY
SLOT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE SHOWERS LIKELY WEST AND
NORTH...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE LOW IN CENTRAL
AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA COINCIDING WITH THE NAM`S PROJECTED
CAPE. COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE 50S WEST TO 60S IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
STACKED LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH
DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...TAPERING OFF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE WEST.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER GOING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST WITH RIBBON OF MODEST INSTABILITY
REMAINING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER IN THE EVENING.
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY EVENING. MODEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE WRAPS
AROUND THE SYSTEM. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW COOL AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WITH ~40 KT WINDS MIXING
DOWN OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO END THE WORK WEEK GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON CIGS LOWERING THROUGH THE
DAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS FORECAST AT
KJMS/KBIS/KMOT. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS AFTER 18Z AND AT KMOT/KISN AFTER 20Z. MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
IFR AND LOWER CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
835 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 829 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
QUICK UPDATE TO POPS FOR OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 13
UTC...BLENDED THEREAFTER TO A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 10-12
UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON ONGOING CONVECTION
THIS MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION BAND WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS ADDRESSED WELL...WITH IT
GRADUALLY PUSHING IN THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SMOKE
DISSIPATING TODAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND COLORADO
AND WESTERN PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WAS A LOW OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING FROM SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW WAS IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CANADIAN LOW/TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL MONTANA. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN FIRES HAD BEGUN MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA TO THE EAST...AS
WINDS ALOFT FROM THE SOUTH CONTINUED TO STEER THE SMOKE AWAY.
EXPECT SMOKE TO BE MAINLY OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO JAMES VALLEY
MAINLY THIS MORNING...AND BE GONE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
WY/CO/SD/NE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY...DIGGING THE
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SOUTHEASTWARD AND PHASING THE TWO
TOGETHER INTO ONE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MONTANA/WYOMING BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AND REACHING THE NORTH DAKOTA/MONTANA BORDER BY
TUESDAY EVENING.
TODAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
MOVING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND REACHING SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND DAYBREAK. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE 60S SOUTH TO THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH DEVELOPING TODAY.
TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS/MONTANA WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED WITH A
STACKED SURFACE LOW...STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP SURROUNDING THE
SYSTEM. SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NAM IS DEPICTING BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE OF 200-300 J/KG AHEAD OF A DRY
SLOT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE SHOWERS LIKELY WEST AND
NORTH...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE LOW IN CENTRAL
AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA COINCIDING WITH THE NAM`S PROJECTED
CAPE. COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE 50S WEST TO 60S IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
STACKED LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH
DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...TAPERING OFF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE WEST.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER GOING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST WITH RIBBON OF MODEST INSTABILITY
REMAINING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER IN THE EVENING.
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY EVENING. MODEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE WRAPS
AROUND THE SYSTEM. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW COOL AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WITH ~40 KT WINDS MIXING
DOWN OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO END THE WORK WEEK GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 829 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS FORECAST AT
KJMS/KBIS/KMOT. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE DAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS AFTER 18Z AND AT KMOT/KISN AFTER 20Z. MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1032 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOLLOWING
BEHIND ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THESE FRONTS...COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACRS NRN KY/SRN OHIO AHEAD
OF MID LEVEL S/W AND WEAK SFC WAVE. THESE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR...WHERE PW/S
WERE BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.3 INCHES. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN ACRS THE SOUTH THRU ABOUT 06Z. EXPECT THESE STORMS
TO CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AND BECOMING MORE SCATTERED PRIOR TO
ENDING OVERNIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S. AFTER THE PCPN ENDS IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA OF CONVECTION RIDING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A H5 S/W. THE CONVECTION WILL WORK ACROSS THE FA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...PUSHING THIS INITIAL SURGE THRU THEN BRINGING ANOTHER
WAVE UP AROUND 00Z ASSOCIATED WITH MORE ENERGY EJECTING UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THAT WAVE WILL AFFECT THE MAINLY SRN SECTIONS.
PCPN WILL THEN BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN FROM W TO E AFTER 03Z.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. CANT
RULE OUT SOMETHING ISOLATED POPPING UP...SO CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN A LITTLE. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
CDFNT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GOOD WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL PUSH HIGHS THURSDAY INTO THE
UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DEPARTS EAST.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING SWIFTLY ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
BEFORE THE WAVE SCOOTS EASTWARD. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH A NARROW
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING PRECIP CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WENT CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND WHICH SHOWS
A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIDAY
WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. READINGS
WILL EXHIBIT A COOLING TREND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS HOVERING
AROUND 60. LOOK FOR A REBOUND BACK NEAR 70 BY TUESDAY UNDER MODEST
WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEGATIVELY TILTED S/W TROF TO PIVOT SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK SFC LOW TO RIPPLE
EAST ALONG WARM FRONT WHICH HAS STALLED OUT ACRS SRN OHIO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SRN OHIO/NRN KY THRU LATE EVENING IN THE MARGINAL INSTBY IN THE
WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
AFTER 06Z...INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH AND WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST. THEREFORE...WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO
END. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z
WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE. WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
IFR CIGS AND FOG TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SW AT 10 KTS OR LESS WED.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
739 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOLLOWING
BEHIND ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THESE FRONTS...COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF CONVECTION RIDING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A H5 S/W. THE CONVECTION WILL WORK ACROSS THE FA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...PUSHING THIS INITIAL SURGE THRU THEN BRINGING ANOTHER
WAVE UP AROUND 00Z ASSOCIATED WITH MORE ENERGY EJECTING UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THAT WAVE WILL AFFECT THE MAINLY SRN SECTIONS.
PCPN WILL THEN BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN FROM W TO E AFTER 03Z.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. CANT
RULE OUT SOMETHING ISOLATED POPPING UP...SO CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN A LITTLE. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
CDFNT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GOOD WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL PUSH HIGHS THURSDAY INTO THE
UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DEPARTS EAST.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING SWIFTLY ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
BEFORE THE WAVE SCOOTS EASTWARD. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH A NARROW
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING PRECIP CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WENT CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND WHICH SHOWS
A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIDAY
WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. READINGS
WILL EXHIBIT A COOLING TREND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS HOVERING
AROUND 60. LOOK FOR A REBOUND BACK NEAR 70 BY TUESDAY UNDER MODEST
WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEGATIVELY TILTED S/W TROF TO PIVOT SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK SFC LOW TO RIPPLE
EAST ALONG WARM FRONT WHICH HAS STALLED OUT ACRS SRN OHIO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SRN OHIO/NRN KY THRU LATE EVENING IN THE MARGINAL INSTBY IN THE
WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
AFTER 06Z...INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH AND WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATEDFORCING
WILL SHIFT EAST. THEREFORE...WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO END. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z WITH IFR
CIGS/VSBYS LATE. WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW IFR CIGS
AND FOG TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SW AT 10 KTS OR LESS WED.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
738 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AND
ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR FEW STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE THREAT WILL
START TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ALSO...WITH LOW FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WE WILL NEED
TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE ON THAT AREA IF ANY CELLS WERE TO START
BACK BUILDING.
620 PM UPDATE...MCS IS ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY AND I HAVE
INCREASED POP ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AS INCREASED
THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. CURRENTLY THE STORMS HAVE BEEN
BORDERLINE SEVERE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL OCCUR. WITH THE SUN GOING DOWN WE EXPECT STORMS TO
WEAKEN A BIT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING DECENT
INSTABILITY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH CAPE VALUES OF 500 - 1000 J/KG
AND WITH ARRIVAL OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING OUR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES JUMP TO ABOUT 7C/KM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS.
5 PM UPDATE...INCREASED POP AND ADDED MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RATHER COMPLICATED PATTERN LASTS INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SHALLOW WARM FRONT ACROSS WV AND KY...ALIGNED
MORE OR LESS IN AN EAST- WEST FASHION. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER KY
IS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG FRONT AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS AREA
FOR PRECIP AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. COULD SEE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF
KY...TRACKING INTO WV LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE A MODEST
ADJUSTMENT TO POPS...TOWARDS THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO BE BE
LATCHING INTO THIS IDEA. CARRIED THUNDER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE
GRIDS AS WELL...WITH A BREAK EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND DIURNAL UPSWING
FOR WED. USED A MODEL BLEND FOR NEAR TERM TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT EXITS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. GOOD WAA AND INSTABILITY INCREASES AS ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STORM FORMATION IS A GOOD BE OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXITS ON
FRIDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. SOILS ARE MOIST
TO WET AND SOME OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR WATER
PROBLEMS. THE ONLY GOOD THING MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING
ALONG AND THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RAINFALL AFFECTS OVER THE AREA.
WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND STARTS TO BRIEFLY DRY US OUT.
GENERALLY KEPT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUICK PROGRESSION OF WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS
AS YET ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE ON TIMING AND POSITION OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE QUITE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL POSSIBLE...MORE LIKELY SEVERE STORMS FOR HTS AND CRW THAN
OTHER LOCATIONS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE IFR OUT EVERYWHERE BUT FOR
PKB...WHERE A LINE OF STRONG STORMS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH IN THE
NEXT 2 HOURS. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO AMEND TAFS AS STORMS DEVELOP
UPSTREAM AND CONFIDENCE OF A DIRECT HIT ON THE SITE BECOMES HIGH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY VARY DEPENDING ON WHEN AND WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HIT.
COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IF CONVECTION BECOMES
MORE ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AND BEHIND THIS LINE IN THE STRATIFORM
COLD POOL.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M L M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN WITH A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC/MPK
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
708 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AND
ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR FEW STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE THREAT WILL
START TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ALSO...WITH LOW FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WE WILL NEED
TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE ON THAT AREA IF ANY CELLS WERE TO START
BACK BUILDING.
620 PM UPDATE...MCS IS ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY AND I HAVE
INCREASED POP ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AS INCREASED
THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. CURRENTLY THE STORMS HAVE BEEN
BORDERLINE SEVERE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL OCCUR. WITH THE SUN GOING DOWN WE EXPECT STORMS TO
WEAKEN A BIT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING DECENT
INSTABILITY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH CAPE VALUES OF 500 - 1000 J/KG
AND WITH ARRIVAL OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING OUR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES JUMP TO ABOUT 7C/KM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS.
5 PM UPDATE...INCREASED POP AND ADDED MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RATHER COMPLICATED PATTERN LASTS INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SHALLOW WARM FRONT ACROSS WV AND KY...ALIGNED
MORE OR LESS IN AN EAST- WEST FASHION. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER KY
IS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG FRONT AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS AREA
FOR PRECIP AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. COULD SEE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF
KY...TRACKING INTO WV LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE A MODEST
ADJUSTMENT TO POPS...TOWARDS THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO BE BE
LATCHING INTO THIS IDEA. CARRIED THUNDER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE
GRIDS AS WELL...WITH A BREAK EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND DIURNAL UPSWING
FOR WED. USED A MODEL BLEND FOR NEAR TERM TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT EXITS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. GOOD WAA AND INSTABILITY INCREASES AS ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STORM FORMATION IS A GOOD BE OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXITS ON
FRIDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. SOILS ARE MOIST
TO WET AND SOME OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR WATER
PROBLEMS. THE ONLY GOOD THING MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING
ALONG AND THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RAINFALL AFFECTS OVER THE AREA.
WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND STARTS TO BRIEFLY DRY US OUT.
GENERALLY KEPT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUICK PROGRESSION OF WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS
AS YET ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE ON TIMING AND POSITION OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY...
WARM FRONT SLIDING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IN FORECAST AREA EXPECTED
TO START THE PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS OF ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TO OUR WEST
WHERE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS WORKING ACROSS KY ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
AREA HAS SERVED AS A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD
SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS AREA OF CONVECTION REACHES
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA THEN CIGS AND VISBY DECREASE...GENERALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFT 00Z HAVE MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS...IN LINE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE...THEN BRING IFR INTO KEKN FOR A SHORT WHILE...AGAIN IN
LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES. CURRENT THINKING IS CONVECTION
MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED...AND LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY VARY DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION. COULD SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M L M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN WITH A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC/MPK
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
948 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF
LAKE ERIE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN HAS REACHED INTO THE AREA FROM KFDY THROUGH
KMNN AND SRN RICHLAND/ASHLAND COUNTIES. STILL THE RAIN IS
HAVING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE...A TOUGH TIME MOVING
NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
AND MID 30S IN THAT AREA AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED. WILL RAISE POPS FAR
SOUTHWEST FOR EARLY TODAY. THE HRRR HOWEVER SHOWS THIS FIRST BATCH
THINNING THROUGH THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE GRIDDED POPS. HAVE
ALSO REMOVED THUNDER BASED ON FORECAST CAPES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A WARM FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS ALREADY A BAND OF
SHOWERS FROM NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO AROUND INDIANAPOLIS.
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT DRIFTS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND
ENCOUNTERS A DRIER ATMOSPHERE. DID KEEP A CHANCE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
THESE SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS A
TOLEDO TO CANTON LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST
BELOW 60. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY
BE LOCATED NORTH OF A TOLEDO TO CANTON LINE. HIGHS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HOWEVER IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR
THE LAKESHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE POPS FOR TONIGHT
ARE OVERDONE WITH INCREASED RIDGING ALOFT AND THE SLOW RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LATER SHIFTS
DECREASE POPS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THIS LOW LIFTS TO NEAR HUDSON BAY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. MORE DETAILS ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. IF THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT INTO TUESDAY WE
WILL BEGIN TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.
EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS WINDS EVENTUALLY
BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR ALL LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GET A BREAK FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BUT THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -3C. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN QUICKLY
SUNDAY CHOKING OFF THE LAKE EFFECT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT STILL SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
MOVED INTO SW OHIO. SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE WITH FRONT BUT
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ADVANCING WITH A E-NE FLOW. EXPECT SHOWERS
IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT SPREADING ACROSS ENTIRE AREA
UNTIL OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS TURN TO THE ENE TODAY AS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY SLOWLY LIFTS ENE. WILL SEE CHOPPY CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS ENE FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. FRONT WILL
FINALLY MAKE IT ACROSS LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AT WHICH POINT
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
232 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
ATTENTION IS PRIMARILY ON THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA BY 00Z... THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER
00Z... ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS HIGHER THAN INITIALIZATION OR SYNOPTIC MODELS WOULD GIVE FOR
THIS EVENING. AS DISCUSSED ELSEWHERE... THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE FIRST WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH
HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND IMPROVING WIND FIELDS WITH TIME THAT
WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AND SOME TORNADO RISK. FARTHER
NORTH... AIRMASS WILL HAVE WHAT EVOLVES INTO A MORE INVERTED-V
LOOK TO THE SOUNDING SO WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT TO THE
NORTH. DRYLINE PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN LURKING IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE AREA OR JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT AND
WASHING OUT. BUT THEN TOMORROW IT WILL BE VERY WARM... ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 90S. THEN A
MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
BRING STORM CHANCES AND THEN COOLER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 89 66 85 / 20 0 10 30
HOBART OK 56 92 64 86 / 10 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 95 67 88 / 10 0 10 30
GAGE OK 52 90 56 78 / 10 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 55 88 66 84 / 40 0 20 20
DURANT OK 65 90 68 85 / 30 10 10 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
86
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
255 PM PDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN ALONG THE IDAHO/MONTANA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS
SENDING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE LOW HAS GENERATED RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SHORT TERN HRRR MODEL SHOWS THIS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDOWN
BEFORE WINDING DOWN. MAY SEE A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS, THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND WALLOWA COUNTY
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SO HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
THROUGH THIS EVENING THOUGH THEY ARE SLOWLY DECLINING. TOMORROW THE
LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO EASTERN MONTANA BUT THE THERE WILL STILL
BE MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW INTO THE AREA AS A BROAD
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND WALLOWA COUNTY WHILE THE REST OF THE ARE WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH MAINLY
60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AN OFFSHORE RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND FAIR AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND
END UP IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY
THURSDAY. PERRY
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BETWEEN 130-140W. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LOW WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY FOR INCREASES
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF 12Z RUNS INDICATE DIFFERENCES
IN TERMS OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE BEST DYNAMIC LIFT ON THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE LOW, SO I WAS CONSERVATIVE IN THE POPS FOR SATURDAY
BY INDICATING CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY THE MID/UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
BETTER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
STARTING OUT AROUND 7500-8500 AND THEN LOWERING A TAD TO 7500-8000
FEET AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND MIDDAY ON SUNDAY WITH POPS ON THE DOWNWARD TREND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AS WELL AS IN THE
KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY THE REGION A MINOR MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FOR DRY CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. POLAN
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SOME SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY
AT 7000-10000 FT AGL, MAINLY AT KPDT, KALW AND KPSC. I HAVE ADDED
VCSH AT KALW AND KPDT THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 10TH/03Z AS THE CONSENSUS
AMONG THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH FACING FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON FROM HEPPNER TO DAYTON. OTHERWISE, DRIER
AIR AT OTHER TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND
ONLY FEW-SCT LOW OR MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY TO
14-18 KTS, NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WINDS YESTERDAY. POLAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 44 70 44 77 / 20 0 0 0
ALW 47 70 47 77 / 20 10 0 0
PSC 46 75 46 82 / 20 0 0 0
YKM 44 77 46 83 / 20 0 0 0
HRI 45 74 44 80 / 20 0 0 0
ELN 43 74 42 79 / 20 0 0 0
RDM 33 69 35 78 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 38 63 37 72 / 20 10 10 0
GCD 38 65 37 74 / 10 10 0 0
DLS 47 78 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
83/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1130 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS AND CROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
VERY LIGHT RAIN IN THE SW FALLING OUT OF THE REMNANTS OF EARLIER
CONVECTION. STILL SOME DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SHRA/TSRA W OF MGW. WILL
HOLD ONTO A CHC OF SHRA ALL NIGHT IN THE S...MAKING LITTLE/NO
CHANGES TO THE FCST. TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GOING FCST OVER
THE SRN TIER...BUT PROB DUE TO THE RAIN COOLING THINGS A LITTLE.
DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER NOW SO THERE SHOULDN/T BE MUCH MORE OF A
FALL.
PREV...
TWO THUNDERSTORMS NEARING THE SW BUT BOTH APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING.
DEWPOINTS MUCH LOWER IN THE LAURELS THAN FAR SW PA/NRN WV. HEATING
OF THE DAY IS ALSO BEING LOST. FCST ROLLING ALONG WITH ANY
SPRINKLES FROM EARLIER NOW DRIED UP ACCORDING TO THE NEW AND
IMPROVED KCCX.
PREV...
GENERALLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO SE /WITHIN THE
285-290K THETA CHANNEL/ WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN PLENTY OF THICK
CLOUDS AND A FEW AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SLIDING NE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE MTNS NE OF KIPT
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SFC CFRONT
/OVER LAKE ONTARIO AT 18Z/ DROPS SE LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. MEAN SFC-900 MB FLOW ACRS THE NE ZONES WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THESE FEATURES
SLIDE SE ACROSS THE ENDLESS MTNS REGION OF NCENT AND NE PENN.
THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIP THE 22-05Z PERIOD AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT SHARPENS...PRIOR TO ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING EAST FROM THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
THE MAIN IMPACT AREA FOR SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT WILL BE
CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SCENT MTNS... WHERE UP
TO AROUND ONE- TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFL IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW
SPOTS. MOST PLACES SHOULD ESCAPE WITH LESS QPF THAN THAT.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH 00Z WED TO BE FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH AT BEST NEAR AND JUST TO THE SW OF A LINE FROM
KBFD...TO KUNV AND KSEG. THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE CWA SHOULDN`T
SEE MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
LAURELS WILL RECEIVE APPROX ANOTHER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAIN...AS LLVLS MOISTEN UP WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE
40S...AND SOME BRIEF/MDT RAIN ACCOMPANIES SMALL AREAS OF 35-40 DBZ
RADAR REFL.
MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED IN THE 21Z-23Z PERIOD TODAY
AS THE CURRENT LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD DEPICTED ON REGION 88D MOSAIC
LOOP GRADUALLY DISSOLVES.
LOW TEMPS EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40F ACROSS THE FAR
NE...TO AROUND 50F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. SHOULD SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT LLVL DRYING/CLEARING PUSH
INTO OUR FAR NE ZONES...TEMPS COULD COOL OFF BY ANOTHER 3-5 DEG F
WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL PIVOT TO A NW-SE ORIENTATION
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE
SRN MID ATLANTIC...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER INTERIOR
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
LATEST 09Z SREF...12Z OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS AND HRRR MODEL BLEND
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SW 1/3 OF THE AREA FOR GREATEST RISK OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN...WILL BE CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH WITH JUST
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY DRIZZLE AND A FEW STRAY ISOLATED SHOWERS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS WED.
THE LACK OF RAINFALL IN MOST PLACES WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO BE ABOUT 8-12 DEG F MILDER THAN TODAY /TUESDAY/.
THERE WILL BE A VERY NARROW TEMP RANGE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE 3-6F BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE EAST...BUT NEAR NORMAL /LOWER TO MID 60S/ ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPTATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN PA
FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING A STRIPE OF 0.25+
INCH QPF. TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO MODERATE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS AROUND 70F BY THURSDAY.
MAX POPS ARE ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA BY 00Z SAT. FROPA TIMING WOULD FAVOR
THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF
TSTMS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THIS WEEKEND WITH SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT FCST TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
BOUNDARY GETS WITH THE GFS RETURNING RAIN TO THE AREA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DESPITE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN PATTERN...ODDS ARE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL SAT-SUN. SUNDAY LOOKS
LIKE CHILLIEST DAY THIS WEEKEND AND CANT RULE OUT FROST POTENTIAL.
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT.
BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA INTO WED.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.
00Z TAFS ADJUSTED FOR THIS.
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE INTO SW PA AS OF 7 PM...BUT THESE
WILL WEAKEN...AS COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR IS OVER CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
THU...LOW CIGS POSSIBLE KJST/KAOO...MAINLY AM.
FRI...SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS /MAINLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENN/ AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE STATE. LOW
CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.
SAT-SUN...BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA AS A
FEW SFC COLD FRONTS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROP SE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1031 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS AND CROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
VERY LIGHT RAIN IN THE SW FALLING OUT OF THE REMNANTS OF EARLIER
CONVECTION. STILL SOME DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SHRA/TSRA W OF MGW. WILL
HOLD ONTO A CHC OF SHRA ALL NIGHT IN THE S...MAKING LITTLE/NO
CHANGES TO THE FCST. TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GOING FCST OVER
THE SRN TIER...BUT PROB DUE TO THE RAIN COOLING THINGS A LITTLE.
DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER NOW SO THERE SHOULDN/T BE MUCH MORE OF A
FALL.
PREV...
TWO THUNDERSTORMS NEARING THE SW BUT BOTH APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING.
DEWPOINTS MUCH LOWER IN THE LAURELS THAN FAR SW PA/NRN WV. HEATING
OF THE DAY IS ALSO BEING LOST. FCST ROLLING ALONG WITH ANY
SPRINKLES FROM EARLIER NOW DRIED UP ACCORDING TO THE NEW AND
IMPROVED KCCX.
PREV...
GENERALLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO SE /WITHIN THE
285-290K THETA CHANNEL/ WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN PLENTY OF THICK
CLOUDS AND A FEW AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SLIDING NE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE MTNS NE OF KIPT
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SFC CFRONT
/OVER LAKE ONTARIO AT 18Z/ DROPS SE LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. MEAN SFC-900 MB FLOW ACRS THE NE ZONES WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THESE FEATURES
SLIDE SE ACROSS THE ENDLESS MTNS REGION OF NCENT AND NE PENN.
THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIP THE 22-05Z PERIOD AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT SHARPENS...PRIOR TO ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING EAST FROM THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
THE MAIN IMPACT AREA FOR SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT WILL BE
CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SCENT MTNS... WHERE UP
TO AROUND ONE- TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFL IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW
SPOTS. MOST PLACES SHOULD ESCAPE WITH LESS QPF THAN THAT.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH 00Z WED TO BE FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH AT BEST NEAR AND JUST TO THE SW OF A LINE FROM
KBFD...TO KUNV AND KSEG. THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE CWA SHOULDN`T
SEE MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
LAURELS WILL RECEIVE APPROX ANOTHER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAIN...AS LLVLS MOISTEN UP WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE
40S...AND SOME BRIEF/MDT RAIN ACCOMPANIES SMALL AREAS OF 35-40 DBZ
RADAR REFL.
MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED IN THE 21Z-23Z PERIOD TODAY
AS THE CURRENT LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD DEPICTED ON REGION 88D MOSAIC
LOOP GRADUALLY DISSOLVES.
LOW TEMPS EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40F ACROSS THE FAR
NE...TO AROUND 50F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. SHOULD SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT LLVL DRYING/CLEARING PUSH
INTO OUR FAR NE ZONES...TEMPS COULD COOL OFF BY ANOTHER 3-5 DEG F
WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL PIVOT TO A NW-SE ORIENTATION
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE
SRN MID ATLANTIC...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER INTERIOR
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
LATEST 09Z SREF...12Z OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS AND HRRR MODEL BLEND
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SW 1/3 OF THE AREA FOR GREATEST RISK OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN...WILL BE CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH WITH JUST
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY DRIZZLE AND A FEW STRAY ISOLATED SHOWERS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS WED.
THE LACK OF RAINFALL IN MOST PLACES WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO BE ABOUT 8-12 DEG F MILDER THAN TODAY /TUESDAY/.
THERE WILL BE A VERY NARROW TEMP RANGE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE 3-6F BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE EAST...BUT NEAR NORMAL /LOWER TO MID 60S/ ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPTATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN PA
FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING A STRIPE OF 0.25+
INCH QPF. TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO MODERATE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS AROUND 70F BY THURSDAY.
MAX POPS ARE ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA BY 00Z SAT. FROPA TIMING WOULD FAVOR
THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF
TSTMS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THIS WEEKEND WITH SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT FCST TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
BOUNDARY GETS WITH THE GFS RETURNING RAIN TO THE AREA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DESPITE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN PATTERN...ODDS ARE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL SAT-SUN. SUNDAY LOOKS
LIKE CHILLIEST DAY THIS WEEKEND AND CANT RULE OUT FROST POTENTIAL.
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA INTO WED.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.
00Z TAFS ADJUSTED FOR THIS.
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE INTO SW PA AS OF 7 PM...BUT THESE
WILL WEAKEN...AS COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR IS OVER CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
THU...LOW CIGS POSSIBLE KJST/KAOO...MAINLY AM.
FRI...SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS /MAINLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENN/ AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE STATE. LOW
CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.
SAT-SUN...BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA AS A
FEW SFC COLD FRONTS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROP SE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
736 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS AND CROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TWO THUNDERSTORMS NEARING THE SW BUT BOTH APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING.
DEWPOINTS MUCH LOWER IN THE LAURELS THAN FAR SW PA/NRN WV. HEATING
OF THE DAY IS ALSO BEING LOST. FCST ROLLING ALONG WITH ANY
SPRINKLES FROM EARLIER NOW DRIED UP ACCORDING TO THE NEW AND
IMPROVED KCCX.
PREV...
GENERALLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO SE /WITHIN THE
285-290K THETA CHANNEL/ WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN PLENTY OF THICK
CLOUDS AND A FEW AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SLIDING NE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE MTNS NE OF KIPT
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SFC CFRONT
/OVER LAKE ONTARIO AT 18Z/ DROPS SE LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. MEAN SFC-900 MB FLOW ACRS THE NE ZONES WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THESE FEATURES
SLIDE SE ACROSS THE ENDLESS MTNS REGION OF NCENT AND NE PENN.
THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIP THE 22-05Z PERIOD AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT SHARPENS...PRIOR TO ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING EAST FROM THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
THE MAIN IMPACT AREA FOR SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT WILL BE
CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SCENT MTNS... WHERE UP
TO AROUND ONE- TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFL IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW
SPOTS. MOST PLACES SHOULD ESCAPE WITH LESS QPF THAN THAT.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH 00Z WED TO BE FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH AT BEST NEAR AND JUST TO THE SW OF A LINE FROM
KBFD...TO KUNV AND KSEG. THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE CWA SHOULDN`T
SEE MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
LAURELS WILL RECEIVE APPROX ANOTHER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAIN...AS LLVLS MOISTEN UP WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE
40S...AND SOME BRIEF/MDT RAIN ACCOMPANIES SMALL AREAS OF 35-40 DBZ
RADAR REFL.
MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED IN THE 21Z-23Z PERIOD TODAY
AS THE CURRENT LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD DEPICTED ON REGION 88D MOSAIC
LOOP GRADUALLY DISSOLVES.
LOW TEMPS EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40F ACROSS THE FAR
NE...TO AROUND 50F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. SHOULD SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT LLVL DRYING/CLEARING PUSH
INTO OUR FAR NE ZONES...TEMPS COULD COOL OFF BY ANOTHER 3-5 DEG F
WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL PIVOT TO A NW-SE ORIENTATION
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE
SRN MID ATLANTIC...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER INTERIOR
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
LATEST 09Z SREF...12Z OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS AND HRRR MODEL BLEND
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SW 1/3 OF THE AREA FOR GREATEST RISK OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN...WILL BE CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH WITH JUST
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY DRIZZLE AND A FEW STRAY ISOLATED SHOWERS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS WED.
THE LACK OF RAINFALL IN MOST PLACES WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO BE ABOUT 8-12 DEG F MILDER THAN TODAY /TUESDAY/.
THERE WILL BE A VERY NARROW TEMP RANGE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE 3-6F BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE EAST...BUT NEAR NORMAL /LOWER TO MID 60S/ ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPTATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN PA
FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING A STRIPE OF 0.25+
INCH QPF. TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO MODERATE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS AROUND 70F BY THURSDAY.
MAX POPS ARE ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA BY 00Z SAT. FROPA TIMING WOULD FAVOR
THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF
TSTMS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THIS WEEKEND WITH SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT FCST TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
BOUNDARY GETS WITH THE GFS RETURNING RAIN TO THE AREA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DESPITE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN PATTERN...ODDS ARE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL SAT-SUN. SUNDAY LOOKS
LIKE CHILLIEST DAY THIS WEEKEND AND CANT RULE OUT FROST POTENTIAL.
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA INTO WED.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.
00Z TAFS ADJUSTED FOR THIS.
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE INTO SW PA AS OF 7 PM...BUT THESE
WILL WEAKEN...AS COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR IS OVER CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
THU...LOW CIGS POSSIBLE KJST/KAOO...MAINLY AM.
FRI...SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS /MAINLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENN/ AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE STATE. LOW
CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.
SAT-SUN...BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA AS A
FEW SFC COLD FRONTS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROP SE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
726 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN TO OUT SOUTH THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS AND CROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
GENERALLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO SE /WITHIN THE
285-290K THETA CHANNEL/ WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN PLENTY OF THICK
CLOUDS AND A FEW AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SLIDING NE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE MTNS NE OF KIPT
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SFC CFRONT
/OVER LAKE ONTARIO AT 18Z/ DROPS SE LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. MEAN SFC-900 MB FLOW ACRS THE NE ZONES WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THESE FEATURES
SLIDE SE ACROSS THE ENDLESS MTNS REGION OF NCENT AND NE PENN.
THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIP THE 22-05Z PERIOD AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT SHARPENS...PRIOR TO ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING EAST FROM THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
THE MAIN IMPACT AREA FOR SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT WILL BE
CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SCENT MTNS... WHERE UP
TO AROUND ONE- TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFL IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW
SPOTS. MOST PLACES SHOULD ESCAPE WITH LESS QPF THAN THAT.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH 00Z WED TO BE FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH AT BEST NEAR AND JUST TO THE SW OF A LINE FROM
KBFD...TO KUNV AND KSEG. THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE CWA SHOULDN`T
SEE MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
LAURELS WILL RECEIVE APPROX ANOTHER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAIN...AS LLVLS MOISTEN UP WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE
40S...AND SOME BRIEF/MDT RAIN ACCOMPANIES SMALL AREAS OF 35-40 DBZ
RADAR REFL.
MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED IN THE 21Z-23Z PERIOD TODAY
AS THE CURRENT LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD DEPICTED ON REGION 88D MOSAIC
LOOP GRADUALLY DISSOLVES.
LOW TEMPS EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40F ACROSS THE FAR
NE...TO AROUND 50F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. SHOULD SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT LLVL DRYING/CLEARING PUSH
INTO OUR FAR NE ZONES...TEMPS COULD COOL OFF BY ANOTHER 3-5 DEG F
WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL PIVOT TO A NW-SE ORIENTATION
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE
SRN MID ATLANTIC...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER INTERIOR
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
LATEST 09Z SREF...12Z OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS AND HRRR MODEL BLEND
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SW 1/3 OF THE AREA FOR GREATEST RISK OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN...WILL BE CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH WITH JUST
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY DRIZZLE AND A FEW STRAY ISOLATED SHOWERS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS WED.
THE LACK OF RAINFALL IN MOST PLACES WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO BE ABOUT 8-12 DEG F MILDER THAN TODAY /TUESDAY/.
THERE WILL BE A VERY NARROW TEMP RANGE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE 3-6F BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE EAST...BUT NEAR NORMAL /LOWER TO MID 60S/ ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPTATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN PA
FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING A STRIPE OF 0.25+
INCH QPF. TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO MODERATE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS AROUND 70F BY THURSDAY.
MAX POPS ARE ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA BY 00Z SAT. FROPA TIMING WOULD FAVOR
THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF
TSTMS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THIS WEEKEND WITH SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT FCST TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
BOUNDARY GETS WITH THE GFS RETURNING RAIN TO THE AREA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DESPITE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN PATTERN...ODDS ARE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL SAT-SUN. SUNDAY LOOKS
LIKE CHILLIEST DAY THIS WEEKEND AND CANT RULE OUT FROST POTENTIAL.
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA INTO WED.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.
00Z TAFS ADJUSTED FOR THIS.
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE INTO SW PA AS OF 7 PM...BUT THESE
WILL WEAKEN...AS COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR IS OVER CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
THU...LOW CIGS POSSIBLE KJST/KAOO...MAINLY AM.
FRI...SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS /MAINLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENN/ AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE STATE. LOW
CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.
SAT-SUN...BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA AS A
FEW SFC COLD FRONTS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROP SE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
917 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD...AND SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY 06Z. A FEW SHOWERS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS WELL...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACTIVITY WITH THEM. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER ACCORDINGLY. NO
CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
CONTINUE TO WATCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL CONVECTION ALONG IT. CELLS HAVE POPPED UP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD INTO NEB...BUT OVER OUT CWA THINGS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH...HI RES
MODELS DO SHOW SOME UPTICK OVER OUR AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...WILL JUST BE A MATTER OF HOW WIDESPREAD THINGS ARE AND HOW DEEP
ANY CONVECTION IS. HRRR SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THINGS COMPARED TO
OTHER HI RES MODELS. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BEST CAPE VALUES
FROM ABOUT HURON TO MILLER AND POINTS SOUTH. OVERALL BULK SHEAR IS
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE WITH HIGHEST VALUES WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NONETHELESS...STILL ENOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
TO BRING A THREAT FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK MOSTLY DRY BUT COULD STILL BE
DEALING WITH SOME DEPARTING PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA IN THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ND. CONDITIONS MAY FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY OVER THE WEST RIVER
COUNTIES SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR...BUT IT APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL AT
THIS POINT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS CONFINED TO NORTHWEST SD.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN. INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WESTERN CWA BASED
ON 850 MB TEMPS AND GOOD MIXING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS LOOK MOSTLY
QUIET.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
THE PERIOD OPENS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SFC LOW PRESSURE. AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
AROUND THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SATURDAY
WILL DRY CONDITIONS OUT SOMEWHAT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE AT THE FAR END
OF THE PERIOD WHEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S ON FRIDAY ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA THIS EVENING...LIKELY AFFECTING KATY. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY FALL
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH THE STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. LOOKS FOR WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE INTO
THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
625 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
CONTINUE TO WATCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL CONVECTION ALONG IT. CELLS HAVE POPPED UP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD INTO NEB...BUT OVER OUT CWA THINGS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH...HI RES
MODELS DO SHOW SOME UPTICK OVER OUR AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...WILL JUST BE A MATTER OF HOW WIDESPREAD THINGS ARE AND HOW DEEP
ANY CONVECTION IS. HRRR SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THINGS COMPARED TO
OTHER HI RES MODELS. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BEST CAPE VALUES
FROM ABOUT HURON TO MILLER AND POINTS SOUTH. OVERALL BULK SHEAR IS
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE WITH HIGHEST VALUES WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NONETHELESS...STILL ENOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
TO BRING A THREAT FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK MOSTLY DRY BUT COULD STILL BE
DEALING WITH SOME DEPARTING PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA IN THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ND. CONDITIONS MAY FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY OVER THE WEST RIVER
COUNTIES SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR...BUT IT APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL AT
THIS POINT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS CONFINED TO NORTHWEST SD.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN. INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WESTERN CWA BASED
ON 850 MB TEMPS AND GOOD MIXING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS LOOK MOSTLY
QUIET.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
THE PERIOD OPENS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SFC LOW PRESSURE. AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
AROUND THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SATURDAY
WILL DRY CONDITIONS OUT SOMEWHAT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE AT THE FAR END
OF THE PERIOD WHEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S ON FRIDAY ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA THIS EVENING...LIKELY AFFECTING KATY. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY FALL
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH THE STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. LOOKS FOR WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE INTO
THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
346 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER THAN EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. MOST OF THE AREA HAS ONLY MANAGED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW
70S. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 73 TO 77 DEGREE
RANGE. MEMPHIS IS THE WARMEST LOCATION...A FEW ROGUE RAYS OF
SUNSHINE MUST HAVE POKED THROUGH THE OVERCAST SKY...CAUSING THEM
TO JUMP UP TO 77 DEGREES AT 3PM.
INSTABILITY HAS ALSO BEEN SUPPRESSED TODAY DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER. EVEN WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S WE HAVE ONLY
BEEN ABLE TO EEK OUT 300-400 J/KG OF CAPE IN EAST ARKANSAS WHERE
IT IS CURRENTLY MOST UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT...SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVEN LIGHTNING IS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON THE FORECAST OF SEVERE STORMS
TONIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO STRENGTHEN. A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN
BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS WEST OKLAHOMA. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT...APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BEFORE SUNRISE. IT IS
EXPECTED TO ATTAIN A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT BETWEEN SUNSET AND
MIDNIGHT. A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE SITUATED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST...PLACING MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION...BUT THIS FEATURE MAY BE A BIT TOO FAT AWAY FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION TO THE SEVER THREAT. NEVERTHELESS IT IS
NOT A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...DIFLUENT FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS SHOULD HELP
MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS. EVEN LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE...A 45-50KT 850
LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY TONIGHT AND SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SECONDARY LLJ OF SIMILAR STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO EAST ARKANSAS BY 12Z...WEAKENING AFTER SUNRISE. AS
THE TROUGH ATTAINS A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT IT SHOULD BE EASY TO
TRANSFER SOME OF THAT ENERGY TO THE SURFACE. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
THE GREATEST THREAT...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHORT LIVED TORNADOES.
TOMORROW...THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT IF
CLOUDS HANG AROUND LIKE TODAY DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON STORMS WOULD BE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY DRIVEN BY HEATING
INDUCED INSTABILITY. DEW POINTS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...SO EVEN TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 70S MAY BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION.
WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BROAD RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...BUT WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM ANY STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS. HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 80S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH. STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE. DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
RETURNING. WE MAY SEE A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE IS LOW. WILL ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS...MAINLY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE
FORECAST TO GENERALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 00Z. LOWER
CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
THE HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS COULD FORM A LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH ERN
AR INTO WRN TN.
BELLES
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
116 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR 18Z TAFS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING SLOWLY THIS MORNING...STILL IN THE 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO JUMP 2-4 DEGREES...OTHERWISE EXPECT SLOW WARMING
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH EAST ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
MIDLEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DUE TO CLOUDY
SKIES...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED.
30
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
A WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S DEWPOINTS WILL BECOME
COMMON LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS GREATER HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...OVERALL INSTABILITY AND
LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN TO AROUND 7.0 CM/KM WITH SBCAPES
RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THIS INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL
COMBINE WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT AN
UPSWING IN INTENSITY OF STORMS. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN
PLACE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE. A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH
HEIGHT SHOULD ALSO ALLOW 0-1 KM SRH TO APPROACH 300 M2/S2 ACROSS
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS EVENING. THEREFORE ISOLATED TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF GREATER
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD NUDGE INTO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN ARKANSAS.
INSTABILITY LEVELS AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL DECREASE WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI
TONIGHT. THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE BETTER
DYNAMIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THEREFORE...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST AWAY
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING.
BY LATER TUESDAY...MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
RISE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LOW COVERAGE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
EXPECTED AS A MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION STRENGTHENS OVER THESE
LOCATIONS.
LINGERING MID LEVEL TROUGHING AND A BELT OF DEEP LAYER WINDS
AROUND 40 KTS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. AN OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
MONDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WELL. LATE DAY STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONGLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPES POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG AND WEAK CAPPING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
GREATER THAN 7.0 C/KM. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THEY SPREAD SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BUILD STRONGER OVER MUCH OF THE
MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD CUT DOWN ON THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DESPITE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CONVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY DURING
THE DAY ACROSS THESE AREAS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTENING IS
EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF EACH DISTURBANCE WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL CHANCES.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE
FORECAST TO GENERALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 00Z. LOWER
CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
THE HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS COULD FORM A LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH ERN
AR INTO WRN TN.
BELLES
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1125 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM THIS MORNING PER SURFACE OBS VERSUS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
CURRENT READINGS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN CWA ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
WEAK SHORTWAVE PER GUIDANCE...AND HRRR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. THUS WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR TODAY. DESPITE
CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS...ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL WARM DAY IS
ANTICIPATED AND WENT ABOVE MOS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.
MAIN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT THEN SWING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RAPIDLY SHEARING APART AND WEAKENING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO
OUR WEST TODAY ACROSS OK/AR/MO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OUTRUNNING THE
INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AND THUS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
FORECAST AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A 30 KT 850 MB JET BRINGS DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO THE
AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE CAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE
AND WITH WEAKENING UPPER JET PASSING OVERHEAD...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCE IS IN NORTHWEST ZONES. AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MODEST SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS
TO BE STRONG OR POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AS PARAMETERS ARE NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE AND UPPER JET WILL BE QUICKLY WEAKENING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT. NEVERTHELESS...IF AN MCS CAN
ORGANIZE TO OUR NORTHWEST AND HEAD THIS WAY AS 00Z ECMWF
SUGGESTS...SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE. SPC HAS ADDED MOST OF
THE AREA INTO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
MORE SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AREAWIDE. LARGE
UPPER TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL FORCE A
DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST PUSHING FRONT THROUGH AREA AND SIDED
WITH THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK AT AROUND 25 KTS...PLENTIFUL CAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH BOUNDARY FOCUS COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS. CONVECTION WILL CLEAR OUT BY FRIDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A WETTER
PERIOD IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD DIFFUSE FRONTAL
ZONE STALLS NEAR OR ACROSS TENNESSEE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE KEPT TEMPS
GENERALLY NEAR THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED BUT WENT
WITH LOWER POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE FRONTAL ZONE MAY
ACTUALLY END UP.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/CKV/CSV...VFR CIGS ARE COVERING MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OFF TO OUR WEST. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH ACTIVITY TODAY, PERHAPS VCSH AT CKV, BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVE
WEATHER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT & TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
617 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM THIS MORNING PER SURFACE OBS VERSUS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
CURRENT READINGS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN CWA ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
WEAK SHORTWAVE PER GUIDANCE...AND HRRR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. THUS WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR TODAY. DESPITE
CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS...ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL WARM DAY IS
ANTICIPATED AND WENT ABOVE MOS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.
MAIN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT THEN SWING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RAPIDLY SHEARING APART AND WEAKENING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO
OUR WEST TODAY ACROSS OK/AR/MO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OUTRUNNING THE
INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AND THUS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
FORECAST AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A 30 KT 850 MB JET BRINGS DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO THE
AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE CAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE
AND WITH WEAKENING UPPER JET PASSING OVERHEAD...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCE IS IN NORTHWEST ZONES. AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MODEST SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS
TO BE STRONG OR POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AS PARAMETERS ARE NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE AND UPPER JET WILL BE QUICKLY WEAKENING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT. NEVERTHELESS...IF AN MCS CAN
ORGANIZE TO OUR NORTHWEST AND HEAD THIS WAY AS 00Z ECMWF
SUGGESTS...SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE. SPC HAS ADDED MOST OF
THE AREA INTO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
MORE SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AREAWIDE. LARGE
UPPER TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL FORCE A
DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST PUSHING FRONT THROUGH AREA AND SIDED
WITH THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK AT AROUND 25 KTS...PLENTIFUL CAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH BOUNDARY FOCUS COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS. CONVECTION WILL CLEAR OUT BY FRIDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A WETTER
PERIOD IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD DIFFUSE FRONTAL
ZONE STALLS NEAR OR ACROSS TENNESSEE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE KEPT TEMPS
GENERALLY NEAR THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED BUT WENT
WITH LOWER POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE FRONTAL ZONE MAY
ACTUALLY END UP.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS IMPACTING KCKV THIS MORNING. MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE
SHOWING VFR CIGS TO HOLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LOOK TO MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING FOR
KCKV AND OVERNIGHT FOR KBNA...AND POSSIBLY KCSV BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......55/SHAMBURGER
AVIATION........BARNWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
246 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM THIS MORNING PER SURFACE OBS VERSUS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
CURRENT READINGS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN CWA ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
WEAK SHORTWAVE PER GUIDANCE...AND HRRR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. THUS WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR TODAY. DESPITE
CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS...ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL WARM DAY IS
ANTICIPATED AND WENT ABOVE MOS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.
MAIN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT THEN SWING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RAPIDLY SHEARING APART AND WEAKENING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO
OUR WEST TODAY ACROSS OK/AR/MO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OUTRUNNING THE
INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AND THUS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
FORECAST AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A 30 KT 850 MB JET BRINGS DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO THE
AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE CAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE
AND WITH WEAKENING UPPER JET PASSING OVERHEAD...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCE IS IN NORTHWEST ZONES. AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MODEST SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS
TO BE STRONG OR POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AS PARAMETERS ARE NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE AND UPPER JET WILL BE QUICKLY WEAKENING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT. NEVERTHELESS...IF AN MCS CAN
ORGANIZE TO OUR NORTHWEST AND HEAD THIS WAY AS 00Z ECMWF
SUGGESTS...SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE. SPC HAS ADDED MOST OF
THE AREA INTO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
MORE SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AREAWIDE. LARGE
UPPER TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL FORCE A
DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST PUSHING FRONT THROUGH AREA AND SIDED
WITH THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK AT AROUND 25 KTS...PLENTIFUL CAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH BOUNDARY FOCUS COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS. CONVECTION WILL CLEAR OUT BY FRIDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A WETTER
PERIOD IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD DIFFUSE FRONTAL
ZONE STALLS NEAR OR ACROSS TENNESSEE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE KEPT TEMPS
GENERALLY NEAR THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED BUT WENT
WITH LOWER POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE FRONTAL ZONE MAY
ACTUALLY END UP.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT IN THE CKV AREA...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...MAINLY IN THE 12-15 KFT RANGE. LIGHT SSW WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10KT ON MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 83 65 84 66 85 / 20 40 40 50 40
CLARKSVILLE 79 63 79 64 82 / 20 60 40 60 40
CROSSVILLE 79 60 78 63 80 / 10 20 40 40 40
COLUMBIA 81 63 82 64 84 / 20 40 30 40 40
LAWRENCEBURG 81 61 82 64 84 / 10 20 30 40 40
WAVERLY 80 63 81 64 84 / 20 60 40 60 40
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........BARNWELL
LONG TERM..................55/SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
402 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. TIME TRACK
TOOL SHOWS ITS CENTER SHOULD EXIT OUR AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES IN ITS WAKE THIS EVENING PER SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. UNTIL THEN ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTH. LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINAL BUOYANCY
WITH AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF MLCAPE. A DRY WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIMITING MORE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY BUT THIS
RAISES CONCERN FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. MOMENTUM THROUGH THE MIXED
LAYER IS PRETTY MARGINAL AND SHOULD PRECLUDE STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING WITH LOSS OF MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND ONSET OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE.
BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TOMORROW SHOULD LEAD TO WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY
AND PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR MANY
LOCATIONS....INCLUDING AMARILLO WHICH HAS NOT YET REACHED 90 THIS
YEAR. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH 60-70 KNOT 500
MB SPEED MAX OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOMORROW. THIS WILL
FORCE LEE LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. BY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST A COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE SOUTH BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
NORTHEASTERLY VEERING TO EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
BE FAIRLY MOIST RELATIVE TO THE DEEPLY MIXED PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS
THE DAY PRIOR. THE COOL/MOIST LAYER SHOULD BE CAPPED BY WARM MID
LEVELS UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT WHEN COOLING/ASCENT FROM
APPROACHING TROUGH ARRIVES. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN ASCENT MOVES EAST AND MEAN
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. WE WILL REMAIN IN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-
UPPER FLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHES. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW MAY NOT
BE WELL RESOLVED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES GIVEN PRESENCE OF A MOIST
AND AT LEAST MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS THIS TIME PERIOD
APPROACHES WE WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE BETTER SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL
DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
BRB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO NEARLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO 15 TO
20 MPH AND MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER.
GREENUP MAY LIMIT THE CONCERN HOWEVER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHER RH VALUES
LIMITING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MID TO LATE WEEK.
BRB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 51 90 50 81 51 / 0 0 0 5 30
BEAVER OK 50 91 53 75 50 / 10 0 5 5 30
BOISE CITY OK 46 84 46 67 45 / 0 0 10 20 30
BORGER TX 53 91 53 79 53 / 0 0 0 5 30
BOYS RANCH TX 50 90 51 81 51 / 0 0 0 10 30
CANYON TX 50 91 50 83 50 / 0 0 0 10 20
CLARENDON TX 54 91 54 83 53 / 0 0 0 5 30
DALHART TX 47 87 49 72 48 / 0 0 5 20 30
GUYMON OK 49 88 49 73 49 / 5 0 5 10 30
HEREFORD TX 50 91 49 85 51 / 0 0 0 10 20
LIPSCOMB TX 50 91 54 78 51 / 5 0 5 5 30
PAMPA TX 53 90 51 78 51 / 0 0 5 5 30
SHAMROCK TX 55 91 56 84 53 / 0 0 0 5 30
WELLINGTON TX 56 93 59 87 55 / 0 0 0 5 30
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
18/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
109 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS ARE HOLDING OVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS.
EXPECT THESE CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 20-21Z FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS. THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING ALSO. MVFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT THE VCT AREA BY 03Z
AND THE OTHER COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND 06Z. IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALI/VCT ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS FROM 09-10Z. MVFR
CIGS WILL REACH LRD AROUND 09Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...THE LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE COASTAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND A WAKE LOW FORMED OVER THE COASTAL BEND LEADING
TO STRONGER WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE HILL
COUNTRY BACK INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A WEAK IMPULSE SOUTHWEST OF
LAREDO. SEEING AN INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY SOUTH OF LAREDO WITH
THISE FEATURE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH DRYING EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST.
MARINE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMED OVER THE COASTAL BEND IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION THAT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. THIS
HAS PRODUCED WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE BAYS
AND NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THESE HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH BY 16Z. BUT STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE HRRR SHOWS STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...SO EXTENDED THE SCA UNTIL 01Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...RAINFALL EXPECTED TO END OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS BY
16Z...FIRST AT KALI THEN AT KCRP AND KVCT. NO RAINFALL MENTIONED
AT KLRD...BUT THEY COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DIMINISH. BASED ON 4 KM MODELS (NOT HRRR THOUGH)...
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST NOT
WHERE PUTTING TEMPO THUNDER IS WARRANTED (TOO ISOLATED IF ANYTHING
AT ALL). THUS...DID NOT MENTION RAINFALL AFTER 16Z. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF JUST A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THEN DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP MAINLY AROUND 03Z AT KVCT AND AOA 06Z AT KCRP
AND KALI...A BIT LATER AT KLRD (MORE TOWARD 09Z). MOS IS HINTING
AT FOG BY 12Z EASTERN TERMINALS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
THAT AT THIS TIME SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY BE UP ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE FOG.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 88 76 90 75 88 / 30 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 85 73 89 73 87 / 30 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 96 76 100 75 98 / 20 10 10 20 20
ALICE 93 73 95 74 93 / 30 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 84 78 86 76 86 / 30 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 97 72 100 74 96 / 10 10 20 10 20
KINGSVILLE 91 74 94 75 90 / 30 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 85 77 86 76 86 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
OCONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
TMT/89...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
944 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...THE LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE COASTAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND A WAKE LOW FORMED OVER THE COASTAL BEND LEADING
TO STRONGER WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE HILL
COUNTRY BACK INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A WEAK IMPULSE SOUTHWEST OF
LAREDO. SEEING AN INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY SOUTH OF LAREDO WITH
THISE FEATURE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH DRYING EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST.
&&
.MARINE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMED OVER THE COASTAL BEND IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION THAT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. THIS
HAS PRODUCED WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE BAYS
AND NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THESE HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH BY 16Z. BUT STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE HRRR SHOWS STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...SO EXTENDED THE SCA UNTIL 01Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...RAINFALL EXPECTED TO END OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS BY
16Z...FIRST AT KALI THEN AT KCRP AND KVCT. NO RAINFALL MENTIONED
AT KLRD...BUT THEY COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DIMINISH. BASED ON 4 KM MODELS (NOT HRRR THOUGH)...
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST NOT
WHERE PUTTING TEMPO THUNDER IS WARRANTED (TOO ISOLATED IF ANYTHING
AT ALL). THUS...DID NOT MENTION RAINFALL AFTER 16Z. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF JUST A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THEN DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP MAINLY AROUND 03Z AT KVCT AND AOA 06Z AT KCRP
AND KALI...A BIT LATER AT KLRD (MORE TOWARD 09Z). MOS IS HINTING
AT FOG BY 12Z EASTERN TERMINALS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
THAT AT THIS TIME SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY BE UP ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE FOG.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 88 76 90 75 88 / 30 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 85 73 89 73 87 / 30 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 96 76 100 75 98 / 20 10 10 20 20
ALICE 93 73 95 74 93 / 30 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 84 78 86 76 86 / 30 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 97 72 100 74 96 / 10 10 20 10 20
KINGSVILLE 91 74 94 75 90 / 30 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 85 77 86 76 86 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
OCONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
TMT/89...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
721 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS CENTER AROUND RAIN
NEAR THE TERMINALS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY... GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS... AND MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS NOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF BY MID-MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION... WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/ ISOLATED TSRA
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL ACTUALLY
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS MORNING AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS OUT OF HOUSTON
SHOW LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHAT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INITIALIZED WITH... INDICATING MORE STABILITY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE ALSO SHOWING A DECREASE
IN COVERAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TERMINALS. IN RESPONSE...
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR HUNTSVILLE AND CONROE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST FOR TRENDS.
ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHER GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR RAIN TODAY AS STRONGER WINDS /KHGX VAD WIND PROFILER
SHOWING 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS THROUGH 5KFT/ ARE TRANSPORTED TO THE
SURFACE. EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO RELAX THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION... BUT LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN TO THE
TERMINALS AFTER 06Z.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH VIRGA/SPRINKLES/SHOWERS
MOVING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE 59 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. GUSTS
30-43 MPH THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE IMPULSE NEAR VCT/BYY
TO RIDE UP THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS. EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY AND
UPPED THE WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING.
45
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SETX EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS. EVENING ANALYSIS SHOWED
A BAND OF SHALLOW MOISTURE NEAR CRP-SJT EXTENDING TO NEAR SPS
WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO SETX/ETX. A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM DRT UP THROUGH WESTERN OK WILL BE
KEEPING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE TODAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS
THIS MORNING EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE BOTH OVER THE GULF AND
OVER SETX. AREAS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD GET BREEZY THIS MORNING AS
MIXING GETS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT INLAND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES AS CORE OF LLJ CLIPS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE LIFTING AWAY. SHOWERS THIS MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE OUT INTO THE GULF. THIS AFTERNOON IS A
DIFFICULT FORECAST...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING MAY SCATTER
SOMEWHAT BY AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S
INLAND...DEEP CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 83-84 WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED IN NATURE OVER
THE AREA FROM COLLEGE STATION TO HOUSTON TO LIBERTY
NORTHWARD...PRIMARILY SHOWERS BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATER AND COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THEY
MAY BE GETTING ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING AS THEY DEPART THE NE
COUNTIES. WILL KEEP WITH THE 60+ POPS IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
TAPERING DOWN TO 30 NEAR THE COAST. S/W KICKER SWEEPS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO PRECIP CHANCES. S/W RIDGING
TRAVERSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THEN STARTS RELOADING TUESDAY
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE WEST WITH A STRONG
CAP REBOUNDING ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BRING A
GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION
LATE AFTERNOON OR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 2500+ CAPE AND LI -6 TO -10 BUT MOISTURE MAY BE A
LIMITING FACTOR. NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH AND
WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS COVER DO MORE TO BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES
FROM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE UPPER UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90...DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY
TO THE EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED AND LOW RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. ECMWF AND GFS
DIVERGING GREATLY BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER FLOW
PATTERNS NEARLY 180 OUT OF PHASE OVER 4 CORNERS AND WEST TEXAS.
MARINE...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. A
TIGHTER INLAND PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT RAIN MOVING ALONG THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS MORNING IS ALLOWING FOR STRONGER WINDS
/20 TO 25 KNOTS/ ACROSS THE BAYS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH BUOYS 019 AND 035 REPORTING WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS NOT TIGHTENED AS
QUICKLY AS PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED. THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL ALLOW THIS GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS HOWEVER... AND WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTHERLY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS. COULD SEE
A FEW STRONGER GUSTS APPROACH OR EXCEED 30 KNOTS AS WELL.
TIDE LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND MAY REACH 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING. CONTINUED THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK IN PLACE ALONG THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST. STILL MAY SEE SOME WAVE RUN-UP ALONG THE HIGHWAY
87/124 INTERSECTION AROUND HIGH TIDE /8 AM/ THIS MORNING... BUT
GIVEN LATEST TRENDS IN TIDE LEVELS THINK RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THE
GREATER CONCERN ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TODAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IMPROVING THIS EVENING AS THE STORM
SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... BUT CAUTION FLAGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY... WITH OFFSHORE FLOW POSSIBLE AS THE
BOUNDARY/ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSH INTO THE GULF.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 85 71 89 70 86 / 40 10 10 10 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 84 72 89 72 87 / 40 10 20 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 76 82 75 81 / 40 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...
WALLER...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
649 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...RAINFALL EXPECTED TO END OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS BY
16Z...FIRST AT KALI THEN AT KCRP AND KVCT. NO RAINFALL MENTIONED
AT KLRD...BUT THEY COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DIMINISH. BASED ON 4 KM MODELS (NOT HRRR THOUGH)...
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST NOT
WHERE PUTTING TEMPO THUNDER IS WARRANTED (TOO ISOLATED IF ANYTHING
AT ALL). THUS...DID NOT MENTION RAINFALL AFTER 16Z. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF JUST A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THEN DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP MAINLY AROUND 03Z AT KVCT AND AOA 06Z AT KCRP
AND KALI...A BIT LATER AT KLRD (MORE TOWARD 09Z). MOS IS HINTING
AT FOG BY 12Z EASTERN TERMINALS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
THAT AT THIS TIME SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY BE UP ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE FOG.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MAIN ISSUE IS THE RAIN
CHANCES...MAINLY TODAY BUT ALSO LATE TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL JET IS
KEEPING RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA...MAINLY IMPACTING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS JET
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY AND DRIER AIR WILL COME IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY
SHOWERS) THIS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN AREAS (SLIGHT CHANCE
WEST)...THEN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE EAST AND NO RAIN
TO THE WEST (STILL A CHANCE IN VICTORIA AREA). NO RAIN EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF...IF NOT ALL OF...TUESDAY.
MAIN ISSUE ON TUESDAY IS WHETHER IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH OUT WEST
AND IF MOISTURE IS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR (AND THAT IS
QUESTIONABLE) THEY WILL BE STRONG...IF NOT SEVERE. HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE THETA-E RIDGE TO THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MODERATE NEGATIVE THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME NORTHWEST (AT BEST ESTIMATE).
TTU 4 KM MODEL IS SHOWING CONVECTION LATE JUST TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST OF COTULLA LATE IN THE DAY. THUS...AM GOING TO PUT
20 POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST AS-NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY (THE LATTER NEAR THE COAST
TODAY)...WITH JUST A BIT LESS WIND ON TUESDAY. LOOKS TO BE WARM
AND HUMID THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WHEN 850MB TEMPERATURES BECOME 20C OR MORE
(THAT IS WHY AM NOT SURE CAP WILL BE BROKEN). LOTS OF CLOUDS THIS
MORNING AND MUCH LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.
MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA AS
ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE NOT COME UP JUST YET...AM EXPECTING THEM TO DO
SO LATER TODAY. THUS...DO NOT WANT TO ADJUST SCA TIME FRAME SINCE
VTEC CODING WILL BE TO CANCEL SCA AND DO NOT WANT TO DO THAT. FEEL
PRETTY CONFIDENT WINDS WILL COME UP SUFFICIENTLY TODAY. FOR
NOW...DID NOT ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE SCA ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
TAPER OFF OVER THE BAYS BEFORE 6 PM.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEAK SHORT WAVE
INTERACTING WITH DECENT INSTABILITY COULD KICK OFF ISOLATED
CONVECTION WED INTO WED NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS OVER THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON THURS AS
WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE HILL COUNTRY SHOULD INITIATE SOME STORM
DEVELOPMENT. NW STEERING WINDS WOULD ALLOW ANY CONVECTION TO MOVE SE
INTO OUR AREA. THE FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT OVER OR JUST NORTHEAST
OF OUR CWA FRIDAY. SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MSTR/INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED STORMS TO FIRE ON THE OLD BOUNDARY OVER THE NE. MODEL
BLENDED TEMPS LOOKED TOUGH TO BEAT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DEEP RIDGING THEN LOOKS TO TAKE OVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
AND INCREASINGLY HOT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 88 76 90 75 88 / 30 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 85 73 89 73 87 / 30 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 96 76 100 75 98 / 20 10 10 20 20
ALICE 93 73 95 74 93 / 30 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 84 78 86 76 86 / 30 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 97 72 100 74 96 / 10 10 20 10 20
KINGSVILLE 91 74 94 75 90 / 30 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 85 77 86 76 86 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
OCONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
GW/86...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1113 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING TONIGHT WILL PASS EAST EARLY MONDAY. MID
LEVEL ENHANCEMENT MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THREATENING
MAINLY KCDS AT TIMES...THOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS TOO LOW TO COVER
OTHER THAN IN A VICINITY MENTION MAINLY BEFORE 06Z FOR NOW. DRYING
ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THIS DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
PULLING EAST OF THE AREA MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE FLOW
WILL VEER BEHIND THIS TROUGH WITH SHARP DRYING ONCE AGAIN...AND
THIS TIME THE SURFACE DRYLINE SHOULD PULL FAR TO THE EAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO WILL TIGHTEN
MONDAY LEADING TO WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS MAY YIELD
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM BLOWING DUST...WE WILL ADDRESS THIS
IN LATER FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN
&&
.UPDATE...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ENHANCED IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS...ENOUGH EVEN FOR A LITTLE THUNDER. UPDATED FOR LOW CHANCE
THUNDER THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/
AVIATION...
FAIRLY DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FAVORING BREEZY OR WINDY MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT WINDS. A SURFACE DRY LINE WITH OUTFLOW
ENHANCEMENT WILL RETREAT WEST AND NORTHWEST TO ABOUT A KLBB TO
KCDS LINE BY MID OR LATE EVENING. MAJORITY OF THUNDER ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF THIS LINE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
PRECISE PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BECOME APPARENT UNTIL
LATER AND MAY REQUIRE TAF ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL IF NEAR ENOUGH.
MOISTURE WILL SCOUR EAST AGAIN EARLY MONDAY AND SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF TODAY IF NOT EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/
SHORT TERM...
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE TODAY BUT ARE STARTING TO GET WITH
THE PROGRAM AS OF 20Z WITH SEVERAL TTU MESONET LOCATIONS NOW
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. WOULD
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET AS LOWER AND MID LEVEL
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MAKING GOOD
HEADWAY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. STILL THINK WE WILL SEE SOME
GUSTS IN THE 45-50 MPH RANGE AT MANY LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WIND ADVISORY THROUGH
01Z.
WINDS HAVE VEERED AND DEWPOINTS HAVE CRASHED AT MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE CWA...SAVE PERHAPS EXTREME EASTERN AREA. DESPITE
THIS...SUPER RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING A GROWING CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND WE MAY SEE A HIGH BASED STORM OR
TWO FORM FROM CHILDRESS DOWN TO ASPERMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR JUST EAST OF CWA WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE IS MAINTAINED. A DIFFERENT STORY MAY EXIST LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR...YANKING DRYLINE WEST ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS TO THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. GFS AND HRRR SHOW
CONVECTION INITIATING AND/OR ADVECTING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
THIS EVENING WHILE TTU WRF KEEPS ACTIVITY JUST EAST OF STONEWALL
COUNTY. WHILE CLEAR FROM A SLAM DUNK SCENARIO...IF STORMS DO FIRE
THERE WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...CAPE AND SHEAR TO
RESULT IN SEVERE WIND/HAIL SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WE WILL BE
WATCHING FOR.
SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL BE THE
SAME OLD STORY WITH THE WIND AS LOW TO MID LEVEL GRADIENTS REMAIN
QUITE STOUT. WEST WINDS SHOULD CRANK BACK UP TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...IF NOT SOONER...COMPLETE
WITH PATCHY BLOWING DUST ON THE CAPROCK. JW
LONG TERM...
GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY IS LEADING TO FEW CHANGES THIS THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA TUESDAY MAY BE
ABLE TO UNLOCK AIR MASS THAT IS PROGGED TO HAVE DEW POINTS NEAR 50
DEGREES. NOTHING SPECIAL THERE...BUT CERTAINLY WORTHY OF
CONTINUING THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE
WEEKEND. GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FCST AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...POSSIBLY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL INTERACTION...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF THAT SCENARIO SOME. SETUP
REMINISCENT OF A MID-SUMMER NORTHWEST FLOW SCENARIO. DEW POINTS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S POSSIBLY WITH A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW
SUGGESTS POPS OF 20-30 PCT STILL JUSTIFIED.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
915 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY. COOLER AIR SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 915 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS COOLED
LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. SHAPED LATE EVENING
ISC TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TOWARDS LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS.
THEN...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TOWARDS LAMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN DRAFTED ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SB LI SHOWED THAT ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED A LITTLE IN THE WEST
AHEAD OF DEEPER CONVECTION ACROSS KENTUCKY. WHILE IN THE EAST...
LIS VARIED FROM MINUS 2 TO MINUS 4 AT 00Z. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST TO WEAKEN BUT HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO
REACH MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONVECTION
IN THE EAST SHOULD WANE/DISSIPATE TOWARD MIDNIGHT TONIGHT,
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. PATCHY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE RECENT
RAINFALL AND THE MOIST GROUND. ADDED THE MENTION OF FOG TO ISC
GRIDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE
CLOUDS CLEAR TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY. THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS OF 612 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES...SHAPING TOWARDS THE
SFC OBS AND LAV GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FOR EARLY
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...BLENDED IN HRRR WHICH CAPTURED THE
CONVECTION ALONG BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. DECIDED TO HOLD ON TO
SCATTERED POPS TONIGHT...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION.
WILL WAIT AND SEE IF A BAND OF CONVECTION APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE AS SUGGESTED BY HRRR AND RNK WRFARW AFTER 08Z. THE
HIRESW-ARW EAST MODEL WEAKENS CONVECTION BEFORE ITS ARRIVAL LATE
TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS
EVENING...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...
A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN LYNCHBURG AND
THE REST OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. CLOUDS ARE STILL HOLDING AT
LYNCHBURG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S, BUT THE CLOUDS COULD
CLEAR IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. MEANWHILE, SUNSHINE HAS EMERGED
TO SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. THIS
HEATING HAS DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE WHERE OVER 1,000 J/KG OF
CAPE IS AVAILABLE ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE PIEDMONT
ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. WITH
A STATIONARY FRONT STILL OVER THE REGION AND THIS AFOREMENTIONED
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD WANE TOWARD MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, SOME
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A
LITTLE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL AND
THE MOIST GROUND. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT
ORIGINATED EARLIER. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT ON THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL
GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CLEAR TO INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY. WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT STILL OVERHEAD, THERE IS
STILL A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WERE
KEPT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 60S TO THE UPPER
70S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO AN
EASTERN TROF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUITE
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MEANDERING
BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING
ALONG AS THE MAIN PARENT LOWS CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE AREA
WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY THE DIGGING UPPER TROF WILL DRIVE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND SWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION AND USHER IN MUCH COLDER
AIR FOR THE WEEKEND ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINE WITH
A SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. THIS PATTERN IS NOT
DECLARING ANY DEFINITIVE SCENARIO FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR REGION
BUT WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY SPECIFIC DETAILS WILL BE EVALUATED DAILY
ALONG WITH THE PROSPECT OF ANY LOCAL HYDRO ISSUES ARISING FROM LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS WELL OVER ONE INCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS IT BECOMES QUASI
ZONAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...BUT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN SAG
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN OUR FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION BY TUESDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR IN CONVECTION AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL.
WITH LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD SUBSIDE
TOWARD MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
SEVERAL HOURS LONGER. THE WET GROUND AND RECENT RAINFALL COULD
ALLOW SOME MVFR/IFR FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ALOFT THAT MAY KEEP THE VISIBILITIES FROM
DROPPING LOWER. HOWEVER, THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING TOWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST AT KLYH AND KLWB FOR THE LOWER CEILINGS TO MATERIALIZE.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REACH KBLF/KLWB/KBCB/KROA LATER IN THE
MORNING FROM ANY REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT ORIGINATED
EARLIER. SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION, THERE
COULD STILL BE PATCHY FOG AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVERHEAD BY
FRIDAY, SO ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING AT KLYH/KDAN TO VFR SHOULD
TAKE PLACE LATER THIS WEEKEND WHEN A COOLER AIR MASS ARRIVES. SOME
MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING BETTER FLYING WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
REGION DURING SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...KK/PW
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...KK/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
737 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY. COOLER AIR SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 612 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES...SHAPING TOWARDS THE
SFC OBS AND LAV GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FOR EARLY
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...BLENDED IN HRRR WHICH CAPTURED THE
CONVECTION ALONG BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. DECIDED TO HOLD ON TO
SCATTERED POPS TONIGHT...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION.
WILL WAIT AND SEE IF A BAND OF CONVECTION APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE AS SUGGESTED BY HRRR AND RNK WRFARW AFTER 08Z. THE
HIRESW-ARW EAST MODEL WEAKENS CONVECTION BEFORE ITS ARRIVAL LATE
TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS
EVENING...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...
A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN LYNCHBURG AND
THE REST OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. CLOUDS ARE STILL HOLDING AT
LYNCHBURG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S, BUT THE CLOUDS COULD
CLEAR IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. MEANWHILE, SUNSHINE HAS EMERGED
TO SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. THIS
HEATING HAS DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE WHERE OVER 1,000 J/KG OF
CAPE IS AVAILABLE ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE PIEDMONT
ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. WITH
A STATIONARY FRONT STILL OVER THE REGION AND THIS AFOREMENTIONED
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD WANE TOWARD MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, SOME
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A
LITTLE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL AND
THE MOIST GROUND. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT
ORIGINATED EARLIER. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT ON THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL
GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CLEAR TO INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY. WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT STILL OVERHEAD, THERE IS
STILL A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WERE
KEPT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 60S TO THE UPPER
70S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO AN
EASTERN TROF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUITE
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MEANDERING
BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING
ALONG AS THE MAIN PARENT LOWS CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE AREA
WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY THE DIGGING UPPER TROF WILL DRIVE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND SWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION AND USHER IN MUCH COLDER
AIR FOR THE WEEKEND ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINE WITH
A SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. THIS PATTERN IS NOT
DECLARING ANY DEFINITIVE SCENARIO FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR REGION
BUT WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY SPECIFIC DETAILS WILL BE EVALUATED DAILY
ALONG WITH THE PROSPECT OF ANY LOCAL HYDRO ISSUES ARISING FROM LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS WELL OVER ONE INCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS IT BECOMES QUASI
ZONAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...BUT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN SAG
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN OUR FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION BY TUESDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR IN CONVECTION AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL.
WITH LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD SUBSIDE
TOWARD MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
SEVERAL HOURS LONGER. THE WET GROUND AND RECENT RAINFALL COULD
ALLOW SOME MVFR/IFR FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ALOFT THAT MAY KEEP THE VISIBILITIES FROM
DROPPING LOWER. HOWEVER, THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING TOWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST AT KLYH AND KLWB FOR THE LOWER CEILINGS TO MATERIALIZE.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REACH KBLF/KLWB/KBCB/KROA LATER IN THE
MORNING FROM ANY REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT ORIGINATED
EARLIER. SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION, THERE
COULD STILL BE PATCHY FOG AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVERHEAD BY
FRIDAY, SO ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING AT KLYH/KDAN TO VFR SHOULD
TAKE PLACE LATER THIS WEEKEND WHEN A COOLER AIR MASS ARRIVES. SOME
MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING BETTER FLYING WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
REGION DURING SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...KK/PW
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...KK/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
624 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 624 PM EDT MONDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. A FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS NO WELL DEFINE TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. WILL WAIT A FEW HOURS TO SEE IF ANY
STORMS FORM WITH SFC LIS AROUND MINUS 3 AND SBCAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THUS...KEPT THE FORECASTED CHANCE
POPS EARLY...THEN DECREASE THE POTENTIAL WITH TIME TONIGHT. ANY
STORMS THAT FORM WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
SOLAR HEATING. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS EVENING...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FLAT UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. NO WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE REGION TO HELP
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT MODEL KEEP STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BUT INSTABILITY AND TOPOGRAPHY WILL HAVE MORE IMPACT ON
WHERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 50S WHICH WILL LIMIT DROP
IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS WERE SHOWING BREAK IN
THE CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING SO WILL LEAN TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO BE LARGER ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL HAVE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION,
BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER UNTIL AROUND PEAK HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, WHICH
SHOULD SERVE AS A BOUNDARY TO FOCUS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
MILD BUT SEASONABLE DURING THIS TIME. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOTING AROUND THIS MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE ENHANCEMENT OF SYNOPTIC
LIFT. COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHICAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN WHETHER
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POSSIBLY BECOMES SEVERE. THERE COULD BE TOO
MANY CLOUDS TO INHIBIT HEATING DURING THE MORNINGS OF WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANY PEEKS OF SUNSHINE TOWARD LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WOULD SUFFICE TO SPARK CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THURSDAY, CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS REFLECT THAT INCREASED CHANCE WITH
SOUNDINGS INDICATING OVER 1,000 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE LATEST MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FRIDAY BEING
THE PROJECTED DAY OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING OVERHEAD. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BY SATURDAY, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD HEAD TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES, AND ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE FELT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH A
NOTABLY COOLER AIR MASS. A LINE OF SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY ARRIVES ON SUNDAY TO BRING DRIER CONDITIONS, BUT
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
COULD ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN DURING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT MONDAY...
WAVY WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM MISSOURI TO NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AROUND 18Z/2PM THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT, NOT A LOT OF
OTHER FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE WAS STILL BECOMING
UNSTABLE. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WAS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
VFR STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5KFT WILL DEVELOP ONCE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IS REACHED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM
UPSTREAM WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 850MB FOR MVFR CEILINGS
LATE TONIGHT IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA. HAVE INCLUDED THESE
LOWER CEILINGS IN THE KLYH AND KLWB TAFS FOR NOW WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
DAILY THREAT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY. GREATEST THREAT
AND COVERAGE WILL BE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. A COOLER
AIR MASS COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY SATURDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
338 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FLAT UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. NO WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE REGION TO HELP
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT MODEL KEEP STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BUT INSTABILITY AND TOPOGRAPHY WILL HAVE MORE IMPACT ON
WHERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 50S WHICH WILL LIMIT DROP
IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS WERE SHOWING BREAK IN
THE CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING SO WILL LEAN TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO BE LARGER ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL HAVE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION,
BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER UNTIL AROUND PEAK HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, WHICH
SHOULD SERVE AS A BOUNDARY TO FOCUS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
MILD BUT SEASONABLE DURING THIS TIME. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOTING AROUND THIS MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE ENHANCEMENT OF SYNOPTIC
LIFT. COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHICAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN WHETHER
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POSSIBLY BECOMES SEVERE. THERE COULD BE TOO
MANY CLOUDS TO INHIBIT HEATING DURING THE MORNINGS OF WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANY PEEKS OF SUNSHINE TOWARD LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WOULD SUFFICE TO SPARK CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THURSDAY, CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS REFLECT THAT INCREASED CHANCE WITH
SOUNDINGS INDICATING OVER 1,000 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE LATEST MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FRIDAY BEING
THE PROJECTED DAY OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING OVERHEAD. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BY SATURDAY, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD HEAD TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES, AND ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE FELT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH A
NOTABLY COOLER AIR MASS. A LINE OF SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY ARRIVES ON SUNDAY TO BRING DRIER CONDITIONS, BUT
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
COULD ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN DURING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT MONDAY...
WAVY WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM MISSOURI TO NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AROUND 18Z/2PM THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT, NOT A LOT OF
OTHER FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE WAS STILL BECOMING
UNSTABLE. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WAS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
VFR STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5KFT WILL DEVELOP ONCE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IS REACHED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM
UPSTREAM WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 850MB FOR MVFR CEILINGS
LATE TONIGHT IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA. HAVE INCLUDED THESE
LOWER CEILINGS IN THE KLYH AND KLWB TAFS FOR NOW WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
DAILY THREAT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY. GREATEST THREAT
AND COVERAGE WILL BE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. A COOLER
AIR MASS COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY SATURDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
130 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTH BLOCKS ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESS. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE
AREA EXPECT VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM MONDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A COOL/DRY AIRMASS COVERING
NEW ENGLAND AND EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
OUR FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY RESIDES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 40S THUS SUPPORTING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS WHERE HIGHER ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...ESP SOUTH OF
I-40 WHERE READINGS WERE CLOSER TO 60.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DRAW WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD
TODAY AND TONIGHT...OVERRUNNING THE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FOUND CLOSER TO THE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...BUT FOR OUR AREA...STORMS WILL BE LESS ROBUST PER
LACK OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT. NEVER THE LESS CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG
STORM OR TWO VICINITY OF WARM FRONT LATER TODAY.
MODELS INSIST WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY...BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE VIRGINIAS TONIGHT PER HIGH PRESSURE BLOCKING
ITS NORTHEAST PROGRESSION. THIS WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA
ON THE RECEIVING END OF ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS SUCH WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AGAIN TONIGHT...ESP NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY MAY NOT PAN OUT AS FORECAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE READINGS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80...BUT THESE
NUMBERS MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED PER WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH LOOKS TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
GIVEN THE COOL START THIS MORNING AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE AREA...NOT SURE WE WILL BE ABLE TO ATTAIN MOS
FORECAST. AS FOR TONIGHT...INCREASING DEWPOINTS SHOULD CREATE A
HIGHER FLOOR...THUS LOOKING FOR READINGS TO DIP NO LOWER THAN THE
MID/UPPER 50S...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHTS
LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
DAKOTAS WILL HEAD NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND OPEN INTO
A LONGWAVE TROUGH. ACROSS OUR REGION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
STALLED OVERHEAD OR NEAR THE AREA. SPIRALING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER
LOW WILL BE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL HEAD NORTHEAST
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS INTO OUR REGION WILL YIELD A FORECAST WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO REACH...AND PROBABLY CROSS...THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE GREATEST
DURING ITS NEAR APPROACH...ARRIVAL...AND CROSSING OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY THURSDAY. WHILE THE GFS STILL WANTS TO
ADVANCE THE COLD FRONT FASTER TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT,
THE ECMWF MODEL HOLDS IT BACK UNTIL FRIDAY. THE SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION LOOKS MORE REASONABLE FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE MAIN DYNAMICAL SUPPORT STAYS TO THE
NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COOLING TREND BEGINS DURING THE WEEKEND AS MORE REINFORCEMENT
ALOFT ARRIVES WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY. SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS COULD COINCIDE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT ANY CHANCES
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO THE PIEDMONT. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY TRACKS EASTWARD
ENOUGH TO BRING A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS OVERHEAD. SOME OF THE
COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER
40S ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME MORE
ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT MONDAY...
WAVY WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM MISSOURI TO NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AROUND 18Z/2PM THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT, NOT A LOT OF
OTHER FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE WAS STILL BECOMING
UNSTABLE. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WAS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
VFR STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5KFT WILL DEVELOP ONCE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IS REACHED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM
UPSTREAM WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 850MB FOR MVFR CEILINGS
LATE TONIGHT IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA. HAVE INCLUDED THESE
LOWER CEILINGS IN THE KLYH AND KLWB TAFS FOR NOW WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
DAILY THREAT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY. GREATEST THREAT
AND COVERAGE WILL BE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. A COOLER
AIR MASS COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY SATURDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1211 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH SOME 850 MB TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS
RESPONSE FIELDS. DRY EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THESE SHOWERS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO CURRENT VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. IF CLOUDS GET HELD BACK IN THE SUNNIER AREAS IN
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...HIGHS MAY REACH WELL INTO THE 60S
INLAND...COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
FOCUSED 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND 500 MB DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE AND RESULTANT RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG WITH IT.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THIS INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING...AS THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS ARE
DELAYING THE ARRIVAL IN THE SOUTH UNTIL AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWING THINGS DOWN A BIT AS WELL...PERHAPS IN
RESPONSE TO THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW.
AREAL COVERAGE ALSO A CONCERN TONIGHT...AS HRRR SHOWS WEAKENING
SHOWERS AS THE EVENING GOES ON. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HERE WITH
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE POPS FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
POPS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN HIGH...AS MAIN 500
MB TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH WEAK
ELEVATED CAPE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS...MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS DEEP
MOISTURE MIXES OUT SOMEWHAT. BRISK EASTERLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
RAW PERIOD LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NEAR THE LAKE...MILDER
INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
BRISK EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS TAF
SITES...ALONG WITH VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH VFR CATEGORY
VISIBILITIES.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
FIRST BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL GO
WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO TAF SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND
02Z TUESDAY. THIS TIMING MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK SEVERAL HOURS
IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
WHEN IT DOES MOVE IN...EXPECT SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BY LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CEILINGS ON TUESDAY. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN ON TUESDAY.
THE SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON...WITH THE EASTERN SITES
SEEING THESE GUSTS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO
AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME TIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH GUSTY EAST SOUTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING WAVES OF 3 TO 6
FEET LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MAY NEED AN EXTENSION OF
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IF WINDS AND
WAVES LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
FORECAST FOCUS CENTERS ON INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERN WI IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE CONTROL OF
DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HOWEVER LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND MOISTURE
GRADIENT IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH. SURFACE WARM FRONT CUTS
ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL INTO TN VALLEY REGION WHERE
DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO 50-55F. MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG
THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL IL BUT THIS AREA IS MOVING MOSTLY EAST. ANOTHER MORE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IS UPSTREAM OVER EASTERN NE...MOVING NORTHWARD
AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD. AN EASTWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS SECOND STRONGER SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY BRING -SHRA AND ISOLD
T TO SOUTHWEST CWA THIS MRNG. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SOME INCREASING
WEAK DBZ OVER SOUTHEAST IA.
THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THIS WEAK WAVE DOES REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVES NORTH BY AFTN. HENCE EXPECT MUCH OF THE
MORNING TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS CWA. THREAT FOR -SHRA INCREASES DURING
THE AFTN...AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS SHIFTING
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER STRONGEST MOISTURE PUSH AND CONVERGENCE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN EXPECT INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TO GRAZE
SOUTHERN WI. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE AND TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF LLJ. HOWEVER YET ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS ALL OF
SRN WI TNGT. QPF MOSTLY IN THE TWO TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE
THIS AFTN AND TNGT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO NOT LINGER AND
CONTINUE MOVING NWD.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWARD LIFTING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING.
MODELS SHOW HEAVIEST QPF DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH LIGHTER QPF
NOTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE 00Z NAM SHOWS THE AFTERNOON DRY WHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW PRIMARY UPPER LOW/VORT MAX SHIFTING EASTWARD
ACROSS SRN WI WHICH SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHRA GOING
AFTER THE MAIN SLUG OF PRECIP DEPARTS SRN WI. SURFACE WARM FRONT
WILL BE POSITIONED WELL SOUTH OF WI SO A CLOUDY AND COOL EASTERLY
WIND IS EXPECTED WITH A LOWER CLOUD DECK/STRATUS LIKELY PERSISTING
ALL DAY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
INITIAL 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ACROSS FAR ERN WI AT THE
OUTSET AND GETS A KICK FROM THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH HEADING EAST
FROM THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM CYCLOGENESIS.
PRIMARY SFC LOW HEADS NE INTO CANADA HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING A
SECONDARY LOW TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND THIS
HEADS NE FROM CNTRL PLAINS INTO UPR MIDWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH WAA PRECIP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SO
TRENDED POPS LOWER DURING THE DAY. HIGHEST 925 TEMPS IN THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING. SO EVENING HIGHS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ARRIVING CONVECTION. CWASP
NUMBERS ARE THE HIGHEST DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NAM DOES SHOW
ONE BATCH OF CONVECTION IN THE BETTER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH AND
ANOTHER RIDING TO OUR NORTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THE
ECMWF/GEM/GFS SHOW MORE OF A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING THE WHOLE
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO WILL HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS FOR NOW GOING WITH
THE CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS AND WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER
ATTM. IN ADDITION THERE IS AN UPTICK IN 0-6KM SHEAR AND SOME DECENT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT EVOLVE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS
BUFKIT SHOWS CAPE VALUES ROOTED AROUND 900 MILLIBARS PUSHING
1000J/KG. MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SRN 1/2 OF FCST AREA SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SFC LOW PROGGD TO BE VCNTY NRN WI WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO SRN
WI. WL KEEP SOME MRNG POPS IN THE FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM 500
MILLIBAR FORCING AND FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN THOUGH 925 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO 10-13C AND WITH 925 WINDS OF 20-
30KNOTS FROM THE WEST WILL NEGATE ANY LAKE EFFECT AND STILL SEE
MILDER TEMPS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
PROGS ARE STILL SHOWING A RATHER COOL PERIOD SETTLING IN. 500
MILLIBAR FLOW WILL BE STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ON THE CYCLONIC
SIDE WITH A FEW WAVES WHICH ARE RESOLVED DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS
IN TERMS OF STRENGTH AND TIMING. THERE WILL BE SHRA POTENTIAL FROM
TIME TO TIME TIED TO THESE WAVES AND ASSOCIATED REINFORCING SHOTS OF
COOLER AIR. 925/850 THERMAL PROFILE STILL LIKELY TO GET QUITE
CHILLY. THE 925 WINDS REMAIN UP AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/CLOUD COVER AND MIXED LOW LEVELS HARD TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN
FROST AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES THROUGH
MOST OF TODAY. LOWER MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SRN WI AND TAF SITES
TONIGHT. MAY BE A FEW NON-SEVERE T-STORMS AFFECTING TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
MARINE...GRADUALLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY IN THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES SLOWLY EWD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY ONSHORE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...NOT TURNING OFF SHORE UNTIL
LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
RECENT SATELLITE MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE MI SURFACE TEMP STILL
IN THE LOW 40S AWAY FROM SHORE. EXPECT LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO
INITIALLY PREVENT STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE
SURFACE TODAY INTO THIS EVE. HOWEVER GUSTY ESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO EVENTUALLY REACH LAKE SURFACE LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE MRNG...WHICH
WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS. HENCE PER COORD WITH LOT...WL POST SMALL
CRAFT ADVY BEGINNING AT 06Z FOR SRN ZONES AND 09Z FOR NRN
ZONES...LASTING THRU TUE MRNG.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ645-
646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643-
644.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
326 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS/RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN WY/CO WITH A WING OF PV-
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING NORTHWARD
THROUGH EASTERN NEB. ANOTHER WAVE WAS NOTED MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO WHICH WAS KICKING OFF SHOWER THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL. QUITE OVER OUR LOCAL
AREA RIGHT NOW UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
MID/HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM
RANGED FROM 39 DEGREES AT BLACK RIVER FALLS WI...TO 59 DEGREES
AT OELWIEN IA.
FOR TODAY...BULK OF MESO MODELS SHOW THAT ARM OF PV-ADVECTION
CONVECTION STAYING WEST OF THE AREA WHILE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
IA/MO WAVE CONVECTION MAYBE SNEAKING INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 BEFORE
ERODING IN DRIER AIR IN PLACE. KEPT CHANCY 30-50 POPS IN FOR THIS
MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF BY NOON. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE AREA ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF I-94 WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE QUITE A BIT OF MID/HIGH CLOUD WILL BE OVER
THE AREA WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 60S.
WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES TONIGHT AS
THAT CLOSED LOW OPENS INTO A TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. INCREASING LIFT/MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD
PRODUCE ANY WHERE FROM 1/10 INCH TO LOCALLY 3/4 INCH OF
RAINFALL...LEAST ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94 AND HIGHEST ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI.
SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...
TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH
THE REGION...EXITING BY MIDNIGHT. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL SUFFER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING
OFF IN THE MIDDLE 50/NEAR 60 ALONG/NORTH OF I-94...TO THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MODEL SHOWING A SLOWER PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF COLD FRONT FROM THE
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
50S. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT THEN
BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT. NAM/GFS SHOW CAPE INCREASING INTO THE
1000-1500J/KG RANGE BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH 0-
3KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-35KT. MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
PERHAPS A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND DOES BEAR
WATCHING.
LINGERING COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING
THROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY.
PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH SUNDAY AS
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGIONS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE TURNING CHILLY WITH
HIGHS SLIPPING INTO THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
THE WARM FRONT HAS PROGRESSED INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING.
ONE AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WAS
PROGRESSING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND WILL STAY
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION WAS OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WAS TIED CLOSELY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EASTERN WYOMING. THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALMOST DUE
NORTH AND IS HANDLED WELL BY THE 09.00Z CR-NAM NEST AND 09.03Z
HRRR WHICH TAKE THIS ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT.
THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN BETWEEN WITH LITTLE OR NO FORCING TO
PRODUCE ANY RAIN. THE HRRR TRIES TO KEEP SOME OF THE MISSOURI
ACTIVITY ALIVE AND BRINGS IN MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
BY MID MORNING AND WILL MAINTAIN THE VCSH FOR THIS AT KLSE AND
TAKE KRST DOWN TO JUST A VCSH AS WELL. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND WITH A
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD SEE SOUTHEAST GUSTS IN THE 25
TO 30 KNOT RANGE FOR BOTH SITES. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO IOWA MONDAY EVENING AND THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES A LITTLE BIT INTO THE AREA. WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THERE SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP. THE CR NAM-NEST DOES NOT SHOW MUCH COVERAGE WITH THESE
SHOWERS...AGAIN KEEPING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST AND
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL JUST INCLUDE A VCSH FOR BOTH
SITES FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW WIDESPREAD...AND
POTENTIAL TOTALS.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLATED TO LIFT OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES TONIGHT...DRIVING UP THROUGH MN ON
MONDAY. THERMODYNAMICS SOMEWHAT WEAK BUT EVIDENT...AND SOME
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE A BIGGER FACTOR...WITH A BRANCH NOSING
INTO SOUTHERN MN AND ANOTHER FOCUSED ACROSS MO/ILL. FOR
INSTABILITY...GFS AND NAM KEEP THEIR CAPE AXIS ACROSS IA
TONIGHT/MUCH OF MONDAY. EXPECT THE CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST/NORTH INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING...WITH A WEAKENING/STRETCHING LINE GRADUALLY MAKING IT TO
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. WITH TWO BRANCHES TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BE MORE FOCUSED WHERE THESE NOSE/MOVE. SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
BULK OR THE RAINS TO MOVE JUST WEST/SOUTHEAST...SORT OF DRYING OUT
AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD ACROSS THE SOUTH...LESSER COVERAGE/AMOUNTS NORTH OF
I-94.
THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GET A KICK NORTHEAST FROM ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING OVER THE PAC NW. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS TO TAKE THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THERE WILL BE AN AXIS OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING TO WORK ON...WITH A RIBBON OF PRECIPTABLE WATER
UPWARDS OF 1 1/4 INCHES. MEAGER AT BEST INSTABILITY...BUT ENOUGH
FOR A SCATTERED/ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT MOSTLY SOUTH OF I-90.
MESSY ENVIRONMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE
BOUNDARIES AND BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE LINGERING ACROSS
THE AREA...KEEPING A RAIN THREAT GOING INTO TUE EVENING. BETTER
CHANCES OVER EASTERN IA AND WI...CLOSER TO A WEST-EAST RUNNING WARM
FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. GFS/NAM BUILD AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTH...DEPENDING ON SOME CLEARING IN THE SKY
COVER. A THUNDER THREAT WILL CONTINUE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TUE NIGHT...AND THEN ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED/WED NIGHT. ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD
FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LEADING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING CAN BE REALIZED BETWEEN THE EXITING
TUE SYSTEM AND THIS APPROACHING ONE...GFS SUGGESTS UPWARDS OF 1000+
J/KG OF SBCAPE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BETTER/DEEPER SHEAR LIES POST THE FRONT...DISPLACED FROM THE
BEST INSTABILITY. THAT SAID...ENOUGH OVERLAP FOR THE MOMENT THAT
SOME STRONGER-POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ITS A PERIOD
THAT BEARS WATCHING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
THE WARM FRONT HAS PROGRESSED INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING.
ONE AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WAS
PROGRESSING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND WILL STAY
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION WAS OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WAS TIED CLOSELY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EASTERN WYOMING. THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALMOST DUE
NORTH AND IS HANDLED WELL BY THE 09.00Z CR-NAM NEST AND 09.03Z
HRRR WHICH TAKE THIS ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT.
THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN BETWEEN WITH LITTLE OR NO FORCING TO
PRODUCE ANY RAIN. THE HRRR TRIES TO KEEP SOME OF THE MISSOURI
ACTIVITY ALIVE AND BRINGS IN MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
BY MID MORNING AND WILL MAINTAIN THE VCSH FOR THIS AT KLSE AND
TAKE KRST DOWN TO JUST A VCSH AS WELL. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND WITH A
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD SEE SOUTHEAST GUSTS IN THE 25
TO 30 KNOT RANGE FOR BOTH SITES. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO IOWA MONDAY EVENING AND THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES A LITTLE BIT INTO THE AREA. WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THERE SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP. THE CR NAM-NEST DOES NOT SHOW MUCH COVERAGE WITH THESE
SHOWERS...AGAIN KEEPING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST AND
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL JUST INCLUDE A VCSH FOR BOTH
SITES FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1222 AM MDT WED MAY 11 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 724 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING
AND EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA. GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY...STORMS WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER THAN THE STORMS THAT WENT THROUGH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME PERIOD. /HODANISH
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
AN UPR TROF WL BE AFFECTING THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED. ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT WL DROP SOUTH INTO SERN CO
THIS EVENING...BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MSTR. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT AND UNTIL THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MSTR OVR THE SERN
PLAINS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE SOME WIDESPREAD STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER VSBYS AND MAYBE EVEN
SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE. AFTER ABOUT 09Z BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
PCPN ENDING ACRS THE FORECAST AREA...OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME DRIZZLE.
THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE MORNING HOURS
ON WED...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD PCPN COULD FORM IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS ALONG THE ERN MTNS. IN THE AFTERNOON...UPSLOPE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE PCPN ALONG THE ERN MTNS...THE PALMER DVD AND
PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SRN BORDER. THE NAM SHOWS LITTLE
PCPN OVR THE FAR ERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR ALL THE SERN PLAINS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE ERN MTNS COULD
SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND CONTDVD ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY ISOLD PCPN CHANCES. TEMPS ON WED WL BE
COOLER AND GENERALLY A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN OVER
COLORADO...SURFACE WINDS BACK TO WESTERLY. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN WITH WARM...MOSTLY DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S THURSDAY...WARMING
INTO THE MID 70S/LOWER 80S FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AS THIS CLOSED LOW MOVES SLOWLY
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN UT/NORTHERN CO AS AN OPEN WAVE. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND MOVES THROUGH UT/CO
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS
AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS OF COLORADO...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EACH
AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STARK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM MDT WED MAY 11 2016
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
AFFECTING KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH 12Z. CIGS WILL MAINLY STAY
VFR...BUT COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS ALONG
WITH VFR TO BRIEF MVFR CIGS. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TODAY, THEN OFFSHORE OF NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY TO
OUR SOUTH. A WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO LIFT INTO OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA LATER ON
SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
THROUGH MONDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. SEVERAL
SURFACE TROUGHS OR COLD FRONTS COULD CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LTST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A WEAKENING AREA OF SHWRS ACRS THE
DELMARVA, WITH MORE SHWRS TO THE S THAT ARE HOLDING ON. THE
MAJORITY OF THOSE SHWRS SHUD PASS TO THE S OF THE CWA.
ALL OF THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCD WITH AN UPPER LVL S/WV WHICH WILL MOVE
THRU THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN, WE WILL LIKELY SEE A
BREAK FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY
TODAY.HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHWRS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTN. THE HRRR IS WETTER THAN THE REST OF THE GUID AND
BRINGS PRECIP FURTHER N. AM NOT SUPPORTING ITS SOLN ATTM, BUT NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
YET ANOTHER S/WV WILL MOVE ACRS MAINLY SRN SECTIONS AGAIN TONIGHT.
GUID DIFFERS ON POP CHCS WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE GUID KEEPING QPF
TO THE S, WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS RAIN INTO DE AND MD, AND EVEN
PORTIONS OF SRN NJ. WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACRS THIS REGION, BUT IF
THE MAJORITY OF THE GUID IS CORRECT, THE FCST CUD BE OVERDONE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA DURING A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THURSDAY STARTS OFF WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
VORTICITY IMPULSES SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO IT
IS POSSIBLE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH
CONTINUED VORTICITY IMPULSES OVERNIGHT, THERE WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD ALSO BE PATCHY FOG OR DRIZZLE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
ON FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH WILL
BRING A GREATER POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THERE IS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA, SO THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COULD BECOME GUSTY AROUND 15 TO
20 MPH. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH
WILL AGAIN BRING A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS, AND AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALSO LIKELY
BRING VERY GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT,
ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN TO OUR NORTH, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY BREEZE ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH, AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY CROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY, BUT MAY ONLY BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WIND
DIRECTION CHANGE. WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY DURING THE DAY
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
MONDAY MAY BE A SIMILAR DAY TO SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA. ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ARE POSSIBLE, BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTH WILL BEGIN SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD OUR AREA. AS A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE AREA, SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY
FORECAST AT THIS TIME, SO WE WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PD. THERE CUD BE SOME
MVFR CONDS TWD DAYBREAK IN AT KILG, KMIV AND KACY IF THESE AREAS ARE
IMPACTED BY RAIN, BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR. FOR NOW AM KEEPING THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY DRY AND VFR. THEN, THERE CUD BE MORE MVFR CONDS
TWD THU MRNG AS ANOTHER UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE CUD BRING MORE RAIN
MANLY TO SRN AREAS.
WIND WILL BE VRY LIGHT, MAINLY LESS THAN 5 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH WITH FOG AND
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS.
FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT COULD CONTINUE TO REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND FRONT 15-20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS EARLY, BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED.
SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PDS. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 3 FT, WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 5 TO
10 KT RANGE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH COULD CAUSE WINDS
TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
301 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
AREA OF SLOW MOVING OR NEARLY STATIONARY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN
IL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN LATE THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED WITH THESE LINGERING
SHOWERS...WHICH WERE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK
REMNANT MCV FEATURE LOCATED NORTH OF KVYS/PERU-LASALLE. EARLIER
SLOW-MOVING STORMS HAD PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER PORTIONS OF LASALLE AND GRUNDY COUNTIES...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF NEARLY 2 INCHES AND SOME REPORTS OF MINOR FLOODING.
WHILE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH...AN AERIAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM FOR
WESTERN/CENTRAL LASALLE COUNTY FOR RESIDUAL MINOR FLOODING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH OVER NORTHERN IL. MOIST AND RELATIVELY COOL ENVIRONMENT
NORTH OF A WEST-EAST STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE FOG DEVELOP
AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT. CURRENT WEB CAMS SHOW LIGHT FOG/LOW CEILINGS
DEVELOPING BACK INTO DOWNTOWN CHICAGO...AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND
INLAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL NEED FOR FOG HEADLINES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE.
HAVE UPDATED HOURLY POP/WX TRENDS BASED ON RECENT RADAR
TRENDS...AND ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS A BIT HIGHER IN OUR SOUTHERN TIER
OF CWA COUNTIES BASED ON FRONTAL POSITION WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE LOW-MID 60S. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
243 PM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE WARM FRONT LIES ALONG OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF I-80 WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE
LOW 70S SOUTH OF IT. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO PULL NORTH
WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. FINALLY SEEING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATES CAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A BIT LESS CAPE. SHEAR VALUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE VERY
LOW...BUT THINKING A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
GENERAL ROTATION ALOFT. ONLY EXPECTING ONE TO PERHAPS A FEW STORMS
TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. SO
FAR THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED TAME WITH LIMITED VERTICAL GROWTH.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
QUICKLY BECOMES STABLE WITH A DECENT SURFACE INVERSION. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES BAGGY WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS COMBINED WITH RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS FROM THE FRONT AND
RECENT RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG OVERNIGHT. NOT CERTAIN THAT WE
WILL SEE DENSE FOG...BUT AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY. TEMPS DROP INTO
50S THIS EVENING AND THEN HOLD STEADY OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY IS STILL LOOKING WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 SOUTH OF I-80.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 60S ALONG THE LAKE. CLOUD
COVER WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN HOW MUCH AREAS AWAY FROM THE
LAKE WILL WARM. IF ANY LOCATION GETS A BIT MORE SUNSHINE...COULD SEE
TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 80S. THE MAIN FORCING STAYS WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. A STOUT CAP WILL ALSO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
214 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY FRIDAY WHILE TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
ANTICIPATE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO BE DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING A STRONG CAP FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING OF THE LOW
PASSAGE AND THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE...THINK THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS GREATLY LIMITED AND WOULD ANTICIPATE ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE REGION TO BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE AS IT
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE...A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET OUT
AHEAD OF THE LOW TRACK WILL RESULT IN DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA AND AREAS NORTH...ALONG WITH BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT SWINGS AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SWITCH IN WINDS WILL HELP DRIVE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE LOW TO MID
70S THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
60S...AND ONLY MID/UPPER 50S FOR SATURDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
COULD CAUSE SOME LIGHT RAIN...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FOCUSED IN THE
MID LEVELS WITH DRY LOW LEVELS INDICATED IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE QPF. UPPER PATTERN IS
PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. EXPECT PRIMARILY DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH SOME LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES
COULD BRING A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL BE ON VSBYS/CIGS...AS AREAS OF
DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN IL AIRFIELDS AND EXPECTED
TO PERSIST UNTIL DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY AFTER. THE EAST/NORTHEAST
WIND OF 5-8KT WILL CONTINUE...WHICH WILL ONLY AID IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND KEEP VSBYS CONSIDERABLY REDUCED ALONG WITH KEEPING
CIGS AROUND 200FT AGL. SOME GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED THAT CIGS MAY
TRY TO LIFT SLIGHTLY TO 300-400FT AGL AROUND 10-13Z WITH PERHAPS
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VSBYS AS WELL...HOWEVER FEEL THIS MAY BE A
MORE OF A TEMPORARY FLUCTUATION UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH
OCCASIONAL 1/4SM VSBYS. THEN THERE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAT THE VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO AROUND 1SM BY 15Z...THEN CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE TO VFR VSBYS AROUND 18-19Z. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE AS WELL...BUT SHOULD BE BACK TO BORDERLINE IFR/LOW-END
MVFR CONDS LATE MORNING. WITH WARMTH ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON A STEADY
EROSION TO THE CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT CIGS TO VFR CONDS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
THEN THE NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE ON TIMING OF PRECIP AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING...WITH
SOME SUGGESTION THE EARLIEST SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
21-23Z...BUT IT APPEARS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE TIMING WOULD END UP
BEING LATER AROUND 3Z. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
BETTER TIMING OF CONVECTION BETWEEN 3-6Z...THEN EXPECT JUST SOME
LINGER SPOTTY SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AND WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY
EARLY THUR MORNING.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
255 AM CDT
VERY WARM AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND RESULTED IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPING...AND BASED ON
CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THE DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW POCKETS OF DENSE FOG MAY PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AND THE HEADLINE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. THE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BUT WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 5 TO 10 KT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF ONLY INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KT WILL LIKELY KEEP WAVES FROM BUILDING VERY HIGH. FURTHER
NORTH THE GRADIENT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST TO 10 TO 20 KT AND PERHAPS
ALONG FAR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SPEEDS COULD APPROACH 25KT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE WEST AND
TURN WINDS SOUTHERLY THEN WESTERLY BY THURSDAY MIDDAY...THEN A
SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND BRING
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GRADIENT WITH BOTH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY STRONG...SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANY
SMALL CRAFT HAZARDS WILL OCCUR FOR EITHER THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA
NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETUP ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...HELPING TO CONTINUE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-
ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM
WEDNESDAY.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 10
AM WEDNESDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-
LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
113 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.UPDATE...913 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
AREA OF SLOW MOVING OR NEARLY STATIONARY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN
IL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN LATE THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED WITH THESE LINGERING
SHOWERS...WHICH WERE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK
REMNANT MCV FEATURE LOCATED NORTH OF KVYS/PERU-LASALLE. EARLIER
SLOW-MOVING STORMS HAD PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER PORTIONS OF LASALLE AND GRUNDY COUNTIES...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF NEARLY 2 INCHES AND SOME REPORTS OF MINOR FLOODING.
WHILE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH...AN AERIAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM FOR
WESTERN/CENTRAL LASALLE COUNTY FOR RESIDUAL MINOR FLOODING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH OVER NORTHERN IL. MOIST AND RELATIVELY COOL ENVIRONMENT
NORTH OF A WEST-EAST STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE FOG DEVELOP
AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT. CURRENT WEB CAMS SHOW LIGHT FOG/LOW CEILINGS
DEVELOPING BACK INTO DOWNTOWN CHICAGO...AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND
INLAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL NEED FOR FOG HEADLINES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE.
HAVE UPDATED HOURLY POP/WX TRENDS BASED ON RECENT RADAR
TRENDS...AND ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS A BIT HIGHER IN OUR SOUTHERN TIER
OF CWA COUNTIES BASED ON FRONTAL POSITION WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE LOW-MID 60S. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
243 PM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE WARM FRONT LIES ALONG OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF I-80 WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE
LOW 70S SOUTH OF IT. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO PULL NORTH
WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. FINALLY SEEING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATES CAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A BIT LESS CAPE. SHEAR VALUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE VERY
LOW...BUT THINKING A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
GENERAL ROTATION ALOFT. ONLY EXPECTING ONE TO PERHAPS A FEW STORMS
TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. SO
FAR THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED TAME WITH LIMITED VERTICAL GROWTH.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
QUICKLY BECOMES STABLE WITH A DECENT SURFACE INVERSION. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES BAGGY WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS COMBINED WITH RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS FROM THE FRONT AND
RECENT RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG OVERNIGHT. NOT CERTAIN THAT WE
WILL SEE DENSE FOG...BUT AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY. TEMPS DROP INTO
50S THIS EVENING AND THEN HOLD STEADY OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY IS STILL LOOKING WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 SOUTH OF I-80.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 60S ALONG THE LAKE. CLOUD
COVER WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN HOW MUCH AREAS AWAY FROM THE
LAKE WILL WARM. IF ANY LOCATION GETS A BIT MORE SUNSHINE...COULD SEE
TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 80S. THE MAIN FORCING STAYS WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. A STOUT CAP WILL ALSO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
214 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY FRIDAY WHILE TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
ANTICIPATE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO BE DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING A STRONG CAP FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING OF THE LOW
PASSAGE AND THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE...THINK THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS GREATLY LIMITED AND WOULD ANTICIPATE ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE REGION TO BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE AS IT
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE...A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET OUT
AHEAD OF THE LOW TRACK WILL RESULT IN DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA AND AREAS NORTH...ALONG WITH BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT SWINGS AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SWITCH IN WINDS WILL HELP DRIVE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE LOW TO MID
70S THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
60S...AND ONLY MID/UPPER 50S FOR SATURDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
COULD CAUSE SOME LIGHT RAIN...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FOCUSED IN THE
MID LEVELS WITH DRY LOW LEVELS INDICATED IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE QPF. UPPER PATTERN IS
PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. EXPECT PRIMARILY DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH SOME LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES
COULD BRING A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL BE ON VSBYS/CIGS...AS AREAS OF
DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN IL AIRFIELDS AND EXPECTED
TO PERSIST UNTIL DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY AFTER. THE EAST/NORTHEAST
WIND OF 5-8KT WILL CONTINUE...WHICH WILL ONLY AID IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND KEEP VSBYS CONSIDERABLY REDUCED ALONG WITH KEEPING
CIGS AROUND 200FT AGL. SOME GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED THAT CIGS MAY
TRY TO LIFT SLIGHTLY TO 300-400FT AGL AROUND 10-13Z WITH PERHAPS
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VSBYS AS WELL...HOWEVER FEEL THIS MAY BE A
MORE OF A TEMPORARY FLUCTUATION UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH
OCCASIONAL 1/4SM VSBYS. THEN THERE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAT THE VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO AROUND 1SM BY 15Z...THEN CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE TO VFR VSBYS AROUND 18-19Z. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE AS WELL...BUT SHOULD BE BACK TO BORDERLINE IFR/LOW-END
MVFR CONDS LATE MORNING. WITH WARMTH ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON A STEADY
EROSION TO THE CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT CIGS TO VFR CONDS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
THEN THE NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE ON TIMING OF PRECIP AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING...WITH
SOME SUGGESTION THE EARLIEST SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
21-23Z...BUT IT APPEARS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE TIMING WOULD END UP
BEING LATER AROUND 3Z. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
BETTER TIMING OF CONVECTION BETWEEN 3-6Z...THEN EXPECT JUST SOME
LINGER SPOTTY SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AND WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY
EARLY THUR MORNING.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
214 PM CDT
A WARM FRONT LIES SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN. WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS POOLING NEAR THE FRONT
HAVE RESULTED IN FOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...THUS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUES FOR THE REST
OF TODAY THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST
BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD RIDGE STRENGTHENS
AND REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INZ001 UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-
LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
222 AM MDT WED MAY 11 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THIS EVENING. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
PERSISTENT IN CONSOLIDATION OF CENTRAL COLORADO STORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE REGION AS AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS
TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY CASTS A LITTLE DOUBT ON THAT
SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF ACTIVITY OVER MOST
OF THE REGION RIGHT NOW. AS A RESULT...DOWNGRADED SOME OF THE POPS
10-15 PERCENT.
ONLY SEVERE STORM...LOCATED IN NORTON COUNTY...IS NOW MOVING TO
THE EAST INTO THE HASTINGS, NEBRASKA FORECAST AREA. STORM WAS
SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE AT TIMES AND DID PRODUCE HAIL UP TO QUARTER
SIZE. FEEL THE SEVERE HAIL THREAT MIGHT BE OVER. THE PRIMARY
THREAT FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REST OF THIS
EVENING SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND HIGH
DCAPE WOULD SUPPORT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL
DOWNBURSTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER EASTERN
KANSAS. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LOW. AT THE SURFACE...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS IN PLACE FROM JUST
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SNW HALF
OF THE CW (JUST NORTHWEST OF KMCK AND KGLD).
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SUBSIDENCE SPREADING OVER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST BY 12Z TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING PARTICULARLY
IN OUR NORTH AND EAST...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MEAN FLOW
WILL TEND TO BE PARALLEL TO FRONT AND POST FRONTAL ELEVATED
FRONTOGENESIS (850-700MB LAYER)...WHICH COULD SUPPORT TRAINING OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
REGARDING SEVERE THREAT...STRONG LINEAR/SPEED SHEAR IS IN PLACE AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING RAISING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS/MCS POTENTIAL. LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS LIMITED CAPE CURRENTLY
SHOW BY LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. GFS CURRENTLY REFLECTS CURRENT TRENDS
AND AT MOST HAS MU CAPE IN THE 500-900 J/KG RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER MU CAPE IN THE 900-
1500 J/KG RANGE IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE NAM ALREADY SEEMS TO BE RUNNING HIGH ON
TDS THIS IS LIKELY INFLUENCING ITS CAPE PROFILES. IF GFS CONTINUES
TO VERIFY I AM SKEPTICAL THAT WE WOULD SEE MORE THAN SHOWERS AND
MARGINAL THUNDERSTORMS. WITH INVERTED V PROFILES ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
STRONG WINDS WILL BE A PRIMARY THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS. IF
HIGHER CAPE (NAM) VERIFIES THEN WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED QUARTER SIZE
HAIL THREAT.
WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING
SHOULD END WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN ROTATES THROUGH THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRECIP
SIGNAL IN OUR SOUTHWEST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND I STUCK WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY I AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE ACTIVITY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS (MAINLY
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S).
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT WED MAY 11 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOOKING WETTER ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO AN
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START SATURDAY EVENING AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
MOISTURE FROM MEXICO GETS TAPPED INTO AND HELPS WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. CURRENT GFS AND EUROPEAN MODEL RUNS DO NOT HAVE IMPRESSIVE
CAPE VALUES BUT THERE IS SOME GOOD BULK SHEARING AND 700 MB
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW IT
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE SEVERE. RAIN SHOWERS ARE MORE PROBABLE. THE
ISSUE RIGHT NOW FOR MAKING DECISIONS ON SEVERITY DIFFICULT IS THAT
THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE PLACEMENT AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE
TROUGH. THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND SITTING OVER
THE 4 CORNERS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN HAS THE TROUGH
MUCH MORE NORTH AND LESS AMPLIFIED...AND ALSO HAS IT SITTING OVER
THE DAKOTAS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THESE DISCREPANCIES COULD IMPACT
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ONE THING THE MODELS
DO HAVE IN COMMON IS THE PRECIP TIMING. OTHER THAN THAT...WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS TROUGH AND HOW IT IS GOING TO TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
AREA OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ITS
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM
THREAT HAS ENDED AT KGLD AND ONLY ANTICIPATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT 2 HOURS. AT KMCK...SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR NEXT
2-3 HOURS BEFORE PRECIP SHIFTS EAST. BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED VIS
IS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER RAINS.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NO
PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
241 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
Will be brief as storms progged to develop over next hour or so over
the area, with stronger focus along and north of I70. Threat
continues to be large hail and wind, with plume of instability
working its way northward into the area at this time. Higher
resolution models indicate a convective system developing and moving
to the northeast, with much of the activity east of our area by
around the noon hour as the main front pushes through. Highs should
still reach into the 70s with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
Beginning of the period starts with surface high pressure moving
into Kansas by early afternoon Thursday keeping conditions dry and
skies mostly clear. This high pressure moves southeast late
Thursday night as a surface low and embedded weak shortwave in the
upper level flow move across northeast Kansas Friday afternoon into
Friday night. With models showing over 1200 J/kg of CAPE and decent
shear across the area Friday, thunderstorms will be possible during
this time period. Saturday through Wednesday, chances for
precipitation persist in the forecast. While the GFS and ECMWF
still have significant differences in the extended, the best
chance for precipitation looks to be Monday and Monday night
associated with a shortwave moving across the southern stream
flow. Instability looks to be minimal through the end of the
period, therefore have kept either showers or showers with
isolated thunder.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
Not much change to the forecast as the HRRR continues to show some
inconsistency in the reflectivity prog. The 03Z HRRR tends to keep
much of the convection north of I-70 while the larger scale NAM
and GFS show more widespread precipitation. Therefore have opted
to maintain a VCTS for the most likely window. Overall the
HRRR/RAP/NAM are a little slower in developing elevated storms, so
have delayed the from groups in the previous forecast accordingly.
Still looks like some MVFR stratus could move in behind the precip
as low level moisture advection persists.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1140 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THIS EVENING. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
PERSISTENT IN CONSOLIDATION OF CENTRAL COLORADO STORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE REGION AS AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS
TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY CASTS A LITTLE DOUBT ON THAT
SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF ACTIVITY OVER MOST
OF THE REGION RIGHT NOW. AS A RESULT...DOWNGRADED SOME OF THE POPS
10-15 PERCENT.
ONLY SEVERE STORM...LOCATED IN NORTON COUNTY...IS NOW MOVING TO
THE EAST INTO THE HASTINGS, NEBRASKA FORECAST AREA. STORM WAS
SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE AT TIMES AND DID PRODUCE HAIL UP TO QUARTER
SIZE. FEEL THE SEVERE HAIL THREAT MIGHT BE OVER. THE PRIMARY
THREAT FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REST OF THIS
EVENING SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND HIGH
DCAPE WOULD SUPPORT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL
DOWNBURSTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER EASTERN
KANSAS. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LOW. AT THE SURFACE...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS IN PLACE FROM JUST
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SNW HALF
OF THE CW (JUST NORTHWEST OF KMCK AND KGLD).
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SUBSIDENCE SPREADING OVER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST BY 12Z TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING PARTICULARLY
IN OUR NORTH AND EAST...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MEAN FLOW
WILL TEND TO BE PARALLEL TO FRONT AND POST FRONTAL ELEVATED
FRONTOGENESIS (850-700MB LAYER)...WHICH COULD SUPPORT TRAINING OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
REGARDING SEVERE THREAT...STRONG LINEAR/SPEED SHEAR IS IN PLACE AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING RAISING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS/MCS POTENTIAL. LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS LIMITED CAPE CURRENTLY
SHOW BY LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. GFS CURRENTLY REFLECTS CURRENT TRENDS
AND AT MOST HAS MU CAPE IN THE 500-900 J/KG RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER MU CAPE IN THE 900-
1500 J/KG RANGE IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE NAM ALREADY SEEMS TO BE RUNNING HIGH ON
TDS THIS IS LIKELY INFLUENCING ITS CAPE PROFILES. IF GFS CONTINUES
TO VERIFY I AM SKEPTICAL THAT WE WOULD SEE MORE THAN SHOWERS AND
MARGINAL THUNDERSTORMS. WITH INVERTED V PROFILES ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
STRONG WINDS WILL BE A PRIMARY THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS. IF
HIGHER CAPE (NAM) VERIFIES THEN WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED QUARTER SIZE
HAIL THREAT.
WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING
SHOULD END WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN ROTATES THROUGH THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRECIP
SIGNAL IN OUR SOUTHWEST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND I STUCK WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY I AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE ACTIVITY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS (MAINLY
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S).
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. THE RIDGE
REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN AND
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ROTATE IN FROM
THE WEST NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND AROUND A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WENT WITH DRY POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE BLEND GAVE 40 TO 50
PERCENT POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
SOME SUBSIDENCE TO OVERCOME AS THE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD THUS I
REDUCED POPS SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY...POPS REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AS THE LOW
MOVES OVER THE CWA AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
AREA OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ITS
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM
THREAT HAS ENDED AT KGLD AND ONLY ANTICIPATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT 2 HOURS. AT KMCK...SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR NEXT
2-3 HOURS BEFORE PRECIP SHIFTS EAST. BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED VIS
IS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER RAINS.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NO
PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1142 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
Will be cancelling the severe thunderstorm watch by midnight.
There remains some potential for elevated thunderstorms with
large hail overnight, and will maintain likely POPs for north
central and northeast KS overnight. However short term models
suggest it may be several hours before these storms develop. So
for the next hour or so, the threat for severe weather is not
great enough to warrant the continuation of the watch.
UPDATE Issued at 953 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
Have updated the forecast to increase POPs to reflect a more
likely setup for elevated storms overnight. The HRRR, while
somewhat inconsistent with the reflectivity prog, continues to
develop elevated storms after 06Z and the latest RAP/NAM insist on
good low level moisture and theta-e advection developing
overnight. The moisture is not very far away with lower 70 degree
dewpoints observed in eastern OK. That moisture along with fairly
steep mid level lapse rates should yield CAPE values of 1000 to
2000 J/kg surging into eastern KS before daybreak. The 00Z NAM and
01Z RAP are weaker with an elevated mixed layer and given the
potential energy, large hail will remain possible with any
thunderstorm development. The limiting factor may be the effective
shear which is rather marginal. The only factor in not going with
categorical wording is concerns for coverage and the HRRR`s
inconsistent depiction of convection.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
Currently, the 20Z WV shows a strong upper level trough over the
Northern Rockies with weak ridging centered over the Central Plains
into the Mid MS Valley. At the surface, a surface lee side low is
situated over southwestern KS and southeastern CO with a weak cold
boundary working into south central Nebraska and northwestern KS.
Pleasant conditions for northeastern KS hold through early evening
tonight with temps to top out generally in the low 80s in the next
hour. Lows tonight should fall into the low 60s and probably mid to
upper 50s in northwestern and northern counties along the KS/NE
stateline as an MCS/MCV is expected to develop over northwestern KS
later tonight and track just to the north of the stateline dragging
the southern portions of the complex through northeastern KS.
Therefore, threats tonight do include the possibility of hail and
some stronger winds, but the wind threat seems low due to the
boundary layer having time to cool and stabilize therefore setting
up an inversion before storms enter the region. Not expecting the
boundary layer to completely decouple, so there will be WAA in place
at the surface. However, some potential factors give only medium
confidence in how much elevated severe hail may develop. Most
guidance suggests that if we do see hail it will most likely be
north of I-70 as a LLJ does kick in above the inversion around 9-12Z
time frame. MUCAPE does reach up to 2500J/kg and lapse rates do
possibly steepen to around 7C/km and shear does seem adequate to see
some cells that could produce severe hail and possibly larger.
However, the overall best lift remains to the north in southeast
Nebraska, so ultimately, until the storms form, it is still hard to
see exactly how all these ingredients line up.
However, the bias from most short-term guidance seems to suggest
that the bulk of the activity will be to the north of the forecast
area in the morning.
The afternoon time frame has some question too depending on trailing
stratus and how persistent it is through the day. However, the best
chance for any severe storms in the afternoon will likely be very
southeastern and some eastern counties off through the Kansas City
area due to the cold frontal boundary finally pushing through after
00Z bringing an end to severe potential. Another complicating
factor for the afternoon is how much of a CAP is in place and
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
Wednesday Night through Friday...
Showers and thunderstorms move out of east central KS late Wednesday
evening, or shortly after midnight. With northwest flow aloft, high
pressure ridge builds southeast into the Central Plains for
Thursday, with pleasant temperatures in the 70s and low humidities.
Ridge moves off to the southeast Thursday night as southerly low-
level winds return ahead of a low pressure area approaching from
Nebraska. This low and associated cold front will not run into the
deeper moisture in eastern/east central Kansas until Thursday
afternoon, with thunderstorm development possible. Highs on
Thursday should be about 5 degrees warmer than those on Wednesday,
generally in the mid to upper 70s.
Friday Night through Tuesday...
Northwest flow aloft will be the dominate pattern throughout the
extended period. A weak cold front is expected to push across the
area Friday night into Saturday morning, bringing the chance for a
few showers/thunderstorms across the eastern half of the area. Very
weak shortwaves within the northwest flow will present slight
chances for rain showers Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will
also be noticeably cooler Saturday and Sunday with highs only in
the low to middle 60s. A low amplified trough across the western
United States will push eastward into the central and southern
plains on Monday, increasing chances for thunderstorms Monday
afternoon and evening. Severe weather chances appear low at this
point as moisture return appears very limited through midweek.
Zonal flow will then ensue for the remained of the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
Not much change to the forecast as the HRRR continues to show some
inconsistency in the reflectivity prog. The 03Z HRRR tends to keep
much of the convection north of I-70 while the larger scale NAM
and GFS show more widespread precipitation. Therefore have opted
to maintain a VCTS for the most likely window. Overall the
HRRR/RAP/NAM are a little slower in developing elevated storms, so
have delayed the from groups in the previous forecast accordingly.
Still looks like some MVFR stratus could move in behind the precip
as low level moisture advection persists.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Baerg/GDP
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
153 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY
DWINDLING. EVEN WITH THE LINE OF STORMS COMING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DOESN/T HAVE ANY INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH. SO THINKING THAT MAIN THREAT NOW IS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING. SO HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND REFRESHED HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMMONWEALTH...INCLUDING EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HAVE UPPED POPS AND INCLUDED SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO PULSE TOWARD SEVERE
CRITERIA. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE IN
DIAMETER REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. A STORM SYSTEM HAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN KY...ALREADY RESULTING IN MULTIPLE SEVERE AND TORNADO
WARNINGS. INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN KY HAS INCREASED WITH THE
LATEST NAM RUNS...WITH 2K J/KG EXPECTED BY 21Z. HOWEVER...HIGHEST
CAPE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS WEST OF THE CWA...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME LARGE HAIL MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA. FURTHERMORE STRONG LLVL WIND
SHEAR...WITH THE BULK OF THE SHEAR BELOW 4K FT...ALSO SHOWING A HIGH
POSSIBILITY FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. GIVEN THE
HISTORY OF THESE STORMS SO FAR...CAN ALSO EXPECT A LARGE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
HI RES MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME AGREEING ON THE SHORT
TERM...ESPECIALLY THE TRACK OF STORMS AS THEY HEAD INTO OUR REGION.
THIS MORNING THE HRRR INITIALIZED THE BEST...BUT DID NOT HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN KY. LATER ON...THE HI
RES ARW HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE DYING SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA AND
THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. IF THIS HELD TRUE IT SHOWED THE SYSTEM
COLD POOLING THEN DIVING SOUTHWARD...LIKELY ONLY CLIPPING OUR SW
COUNTIES. THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SEEMED TO COME INTO A SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE CURRENT CONVECTION TRAVELING ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER...WITH ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REACH NORTH CENTRAL KY AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 0
AND 6Z. BASED NEAR TERM POPS ON THIS IDEA...HOWEVER AM A BIT
CONCERNED THAT THIS IS A BIT SLOW...AS THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALREADY BE
EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AT THAT POINT.
SRLY WINDS AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
WHILE WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW DRY PERIODS...THE
WEATHER AS A WHOLE WILL REMAIN VERY UNSETTLED. THE PERIOD WILL
START AS A COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING ON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
FRONT SHOULD DEPART EARLY FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
RETURNING FOR FRIDAY. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. THE
QUESTION THEN TURNS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP
HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING
ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS ZONE...SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS
INTO NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED BUT HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS IMPACTED ALL OF THE TAF SITES SO KEPT
MENTION OF VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWER OR STORM. ONCE THE RAIN
PASSES...EXPECT CIGS TO DEGRADE WITH BR OR FG POSSIBLE AS LOW
LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS/STORMS
BUILD IN AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1215 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY
DWINDLING. EVEN WITH THE LINE OF STORMS COMING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DOESN/T HAVE ANY INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH. SO THINKING THAT MAIN THREAT NOW IS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING. SO HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND REFRESHED HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMMONWEALTH...INCLUDING EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HAVE UPPED POPS AND INCLUDED SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO PULSE TOWARD SEVERE
CRITERIA. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE IN
DIAMETER REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. A STORM SYSTEM HAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN KY...ALREADY RESULTING IN MULTIPLE SEVERE AND TORNADO
WARNINGS. INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN KY HAS INCREASED WITH THE
LATEST NAM RUNS...WITH 2K J/KG EXPECTED BY 21Z. HOWEVER...HIGHEST
CAPE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS WEST OF THE CWA...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME LARGE HAIL MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA. FURTHERMORE STRONG LLVL WIND
SHEAR...WITH THE BULK OF THE SHEAR BELOW 4K FT...ALSO SHOWING A HIGH
POSSIBILITY FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. GIVEN THE
HISTORY OF THESE STORMS SO FAR...CAN ALSO EXPECT A LARGE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
HI RES MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME AGREEING ON THE SHORT
TERM...ESPECIALLY THE TRACK OF STORMS AS THEY HEAD INTO OUR REGION.
THIS MORNING THE HRRR INITIALIZED THE BEST...BUT DID NOT HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN KY. LATER ON...THE HI
RES ARW HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE DYING SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA AND
THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. IF THIS HELD TRUE IT SHOWED THE SYSTEM
COLD POOLING THEN DIVING SOUTHWARD...LIKELY ONLY CLIPPING OUR SW
COUNTIES. THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SEEMED TO COME INTO A SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE CURRENT CONVECTION TRAVELING ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER...WITH ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REACH NORTH CENTRAL KY AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 0
AND 6Z. BASED NEAR TERM POPS ON THIS IDEA...HOWEVER AM A BIT
CONCERNED THAT THIS IS A BIT SLOW...AS THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALREADY BE
EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AT THAT POINT.
SRLY WINDS AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
WHILE WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW DRY PERIODS...THE
WEATHER AS A WHOLE WILL REMAIN VERY UNSETTLED. THE PERIOD WILL
START AS A COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING ON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
FRONT SHOULD DEPART EARLY FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
RETURNING FOR FRIDAY. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. THE
QUESTION THEN TURNS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP
HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING
ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS ZONE...SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS
INTO NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING INTO POTENTIALLY EARLY TONIGHT. IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH ANY STORMS...WHILE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SATURATED LOW LEVELS REMAIN IN PLACE. MAY SEE
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING GREAT ENOUGH CHANCES/COVERAGE TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR UNDERNEATH THUNDERSTORMS WHERE MUCH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GUSEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
139 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
12Z RAOBS AND LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A BLOCKY UPR
AIR PATTERN OVER NAMERICA. A BLDG UPR RDG EXTENDS FM NW ONTARIO INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS AND IS SITUATED BTWN A CLOSED LO OVER THE CNDN
MARITIMES AND ANOTHER CLOSED LO OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. ANOTHER SHRTWV
IS SLIDING ENE THRU THE MID/UPR MS RIVER VALLEY BUT IS WEAKENING
WITH TIME AS IT LIFTS INTO THE EXPANDING UPR RDG. BUT THERE IS A
GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER RELATED TO A VERY
MOIST 12Z GRB SDNG /PWAT 1.12 INCH/. BUT VERY DRY AIR NOTED JUST TO
THE NE ON THE 12Z APX RAOB /PWAT 0.16 INCH/ IS PROVIDING A SHARP NRN
EDGE TO THE CLD COVER AND THE PCPN EXPANSION. UNDER SHARP PRES
GRADIENT BTWN SFC HUDSON BAY HI PRES AND WEAKENING SFC LO PRES TROF
APRCHG FM THE SW...GUSTY SE WINDS HAVE REACHED 30 MPH AT SOME
PLACES...ACCENTUATING FIRE WX DANGER AS SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL
INTO THE 60S AND RH HAS DROPPED AOB 20 PCT AWAY FM THE CLOUDY AREAS
WITH DAYTIME MIXING.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT INTO WED FOCUS ON CLD TRENDS/POPS AND TEMPS.
FORTUNATELY...WED WL FEATURE MOISTER LLVL AIR/WEAKER WINDS...SO FIRE
WX CONCERNS WL BE REDUCED.
TNGT...APRCHG SHRTWV TO THE SW IS FCST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...ALONG
WITH ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR FORCING. DEEPER RH IS FCST TO INCRS SLOWLY
OVER MAINLY THE SW PORTION OF UPR MI. BUT WITH MINIMAL DEEP LYR
FORCING AND LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR...EXPECT NO MORE THAN SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS IN SOME PLACES NEAR THE WI BORDER/WRN LK SUP. THE
NE PORTION OF UPR MI WL BE CLOSER TO THE HUDSON BAY HI PRES/SLOWLY
RETREATING DRY AIRMASS AND REMAIN MOCLR. MIN TEMPS WL BE LOWEST IN
THIS AREA...FALLING INTO THE 30S EVEN THOUGH A STEADY ESE WIND WL
PERSIST UNDER THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE HUDSON BAY HI AND LOWER MSLP
TO THE SW.
WED...ALTHOUGH THE SHRTWV TO THE SW WL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT...
DEEPER MSTR IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD ALL OF UPR MI AS THE
LO TO MID LVL FLOW SLOWLY VEERS TOWARD THE S. SOME OF THE MODELS
GENERATE SOME LIGHT PCPN OVER MAINLY THE W AND CENTRAL WHERE SFC
DEWPTS WL BE RISING. BUT WITH LIMITED LARGER SCALE FORCING...OPTED
TO MAINTAIN PREVIOUS DRY FCST. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE A BIT LOWER ON
WED WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLD COVER. THE LLVL DRY AIR WL BE MOST
RESILIENT OVER THE E...WHERE THE MIN RH WL AT LEAST APRCH 30 PCT IN
THE AFTN. SINCE WINDS WL BE LIGHTER AND GUST NO MORE THAN 15 TO 20
MPH...WL ISSUE NO NEW FIRE WX STATEMENTS ATTM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH PERIODS OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
CWA WILL BREAK DOWN WHILE SHIFTING EAST AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS. VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL DURING THE EVENING...BUT RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS
WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THIS PRECIP AT GROUND LEVEL. A
POCKET OF HIGHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE MID-MS VALLEY ON WED WILL SPREAD NNE DURING THE NIGHT. AS IS
GENERALLY THE CASE WITH REMNANT CONVECTIVE PRECIP...GUIDANCE IS
STRUGGLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. SHOWERS THEN DIMINISH FROM
THE SW AS DRIER AIR WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT...USHERING
IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE WEST WIND UPSLOPE
AREAS. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL ON FRI...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE. WESTERLY WINDS ALSO LOOK TO BECOME
QUITE GUSTY DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 30MPH ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE WEST HALF...AS THE SFC LOW SLOWS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DRIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SEND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
REGION...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DECENT CLOUD COVER TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK INVERSION COMBINED WITH H8
TEMPS APPROACHING -10C WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS QUITE LOW...WITH
WIDESPREAD 40S EXPECTED...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 30S EAST HALF ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR. WET BULBS ZERO LEVELS SUPPORT MOSTLY MOSTLY SNOW
OUTSIDE OF THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DIRUNAL HEATING ASSISTANCE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGHING AND LOW-LEVEL
COLD CORE WILL SHIFT EAST. HOWEVER...A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES ON
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
UPPER MI WILL LARGELY REMAIN ON A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
VERY DRY AIR TO THE NE AND DEEP MOISTURE TO THE SW...THOUGH THE
GRADIENT WILL BE SHIFTING VERY SLOWLY NE WITH TIME. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD TO FALL TO PREVAILING MVFR
EARLY THIS AFTN. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY FALLING TO IFR
NEAR OR JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD. AT KCMX/KSAW...CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
EXPECT E TO NE WINDS UP TO 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN LAKE WHERE TERRAIN
INFLUENCES FUNNEL AND ACCENTUATE THIS FLOW...THRU WED BETWEEN SLOWLY
DEPARTING HI PRES IN QUEBEC AND LO PRES APPROACHING FROM THE SW. AS
THIS LO LIFTS INTO ONTARIO ON THU...EXPECT A WSHFT TO THE W AND
THEN THE NW WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT. AS A RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND...THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
431 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 320 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
Moist, unstable airmass coupled with warm front lifting north into
the forecast area is setting the stage for convective initiation
stretching from around Cedar County, MO west-northwestward into
north-central KS. Currently, not much is inhibiting upscale growth,
although as the morning wears on, inhibition due to morning
convection will place greater uncertainty in storm evolution later
today. Dewpoints are already into the lower 60s this morning for
many locations, and upper 60s are knocking on the doorstep in
southwestern KS, along with SBCAPE 1000+ J/kg analyzed there as
well. MUCAPE values of 1000+ J/kg already extends into the KC metro
area through the southern third of the forecast area. Essentially,
with these parameters already in place and/or advecting into the
area, the challenging part of today`s severe threat will be how
worked over the local atmosphere will be and whether or not there
will be time for a recharging. Higher confidence in severe threat
this afternoon exists for the eastern third of the forecast area,
basically points east of the current severe thunderstorm watch.
Today`s forecast and subsequent updates are driven more by current
analysis of the atmosphere rather than heavy reliance on any
particular individual or set of models.
For the last couple of days, the question has been how much shear
was available and to what extent it may possibly be a limiting
factor. 0-6km bulk shear looks rather meager this morning; however,
effective bulk shear is being analyzed in excess of 40kts. across
much of the western half of the forecast area. Combining this with
the aforementioned moisture and instability, multicellular clusters
will be the mode of choice for today, and storms could be rather
pulsy in nature. Better dynamics continues to look to linger back
behind the cold front coming through with a narrow corridor of better
shear immediately ahead of the frontal boundary.
Slow-moving thunderstorm clusters in west-central MO this morning are
concerning for flooding potential but as the cluster in KS becomes
more progressive throughout the day, training of storms should be
less of a concern. Nevertheless, abundant PWATs and 850mb moisture
transport nosing its way into the area will allow for efficient rain
producers so will need to monitor hydro concerns throughout the day,
particularly where the heaviest rains have fallen over the last
couple of days.
Once the front clears through tonight, so will the precip, leading to
dry weather for tomorrow. However, the lack of mentionable PoPs won`t
last long as the next disturbance, albeit weak, traverses through on
Friday. Much of the start of the weekend looks to be dry but
increasing PoPs creep back in early next week. As for temperatures,
will see a tight gradient for highs from NW MO southeastward, with
upper 60s to maybe around 70 in the NW to mid 80s in the SE. Cooler
side of normal temps will prevail on Thursday, warming into the mid
to upper 70s on Friday before another cold front marches through,
then unseasonably chilly for the weekend into next week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
Complicated TAF period period as warm front currently draped along
the OK/KS and MO/AR border begins to lift north. Thunderstorms have
already begun to ignite along this boundary and are expected to move
northward into the area between 9-12Z. In addition, thunderstorms
across Nebraska and portions of Kansas will move eastward and
eventually merge with the warm front activity. This initial wave of
convection will quickly move through the region with some scattered
light showers behind it. Another round of thunderstorms is expected
to develop along the cold front that will approach the region in the
afternoon. Once the cold front moves through, winds will veer from
southeasterly to northwesterly.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...lg
Aviation...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
431 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 320 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
Moist, unstable airmass coupled with warm front lifting north into
the forecast area is setting the stage for convective initiation
stretching from around Cedar County, MO west-northwestward into
north-central KS. Currently, not much is inhibiting upscale growth,
although as the morning wears on, inhibition due to morning
convection will place greater uncertainty in storm evolution later
today. Dewpoints are already into the lower 60s this morning for
many locations, and upper 60s are knocking on the doorstep in
southwestern KS, along with SBCAPE 1000+ J/kg analyzed there as
well. MUCAPE values of 1000+ J/kg already extends into the KC metro
area through the southern third of the forecast area. Essentially,
with these parameters already in place and/or advecting into the
area, the challenging part of today`s severe threat will be how
worked over the local atmosphere will be and whether or not there
will be time for a recharging. Higher confidence in severe threat
this afternoon exists for the eastern third of the forecast area,
basically points east of the current severe thunderstorm watch.
Today`s forecast and subsequent updates are driven more by current
analysis of the atmosphere rather than heavy reliance on any
particular individual or set of models.
For the last couple of days, the question has been how much shear
was available and to what extent it may possibly be a limiting
factor. 0-6km bulk shear looks rather meager this morning; however,
effective bulk shear is being analyzed in excess of 40kts. across
much of the western half of the forecast area. Combining this with
the aforementioned moisture and instability, multicellular clusters
will be the mode of choice for today, and storms could be rather
pulsy in nature. Better dynamics continues to look to linger back
behind the cold front coming through with a narrow corridor of better
shear immediately ahead of the frontal boundary.
Slow-moving thunderstorm clusters in west-central MO this morning are
concerning for flooding potential but as the cluster in KS becomes
more progressive throughout the day, training of storms should be
less of a concern. Nevertheless, abundant PWATs and 850mb moisture
transport nosing its way into the area will allow for efficient rain
producers so will need to monitor hydro concerns throughout the day,
particularly where the heaviest rains have fallen over the last
couple of days.
Once the front clears through tonight, so will the precip, leading to
dry weather for tomorrow. However, the lack of mentionable PoPs won`t
last long as the next disturbance, albeit weak, traverses through on
Friday. Much of the start of the weekend looks to be dry but
increasing PoPs creep back in early next week. As for temperatures,
will see a tight gradient for highs from NW MO southeastward, with
upper 60s to maybe around 70 in the NW to mid 80s in the SE. Cooler
side of normal temps will prevail on Thursday, warming into the mid
to upper 70s on Friday before another cold front marches through,
then unseasonably chilly for the weekend into next week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
Complicated TAF period period as warm front currently draped along
the OK/KS and MO/AR border begins to lift north. Thunderstorms have
already begun to ignite along this boundary and are expected to move
northward into the area between 9-12Z. In addition, thunderstorms
across Nebraska and portions of Kansas will move eastward and
eventually merge with the warm front activity. This initial wave of
convection will quickly move through the region with some scattered
light showers behind it. Another round of thunderstorms is expected
to develop along the cold front that will approach the region in the
afternoon. Once the cold front moves through, winds will veer from
southeasterly to northwesterly.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...lg
Aviation...PMM
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
340 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed May 11 2016
Main concerns today are dense fog early this morning and potential
severe weather. Have issued a dense fog advisory through mid
morning.
Latest surface observations show that quite a few stations from the
eastern Ozarks into south central Illinois have had visibilities
fall to 1/4 mile the past few hours. Visibilities in the St. Louis
metro area have also fallen recently to less than a mile at times.
With light winds and clear skies, think this trend will continue
through mid morning, so have gone with a dense fog advisory for the
eastern half of the CWA. Conditions should begin to improve once
the sun comes up and mixing begins.
Then the focus turns to the potential for the thunderstorms the rest
of the day. A weak warm front that thunderstorms are forming on
over southwest MO early this morning will lift northward this
morning. There is some potential that scattered thunderstorms will
develop along this front this morning into early this afternoon as
strong moisture convergence develops underneath increasing ascent
from approaching mid level trough. Will show increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms increasing from the west this afternoon.
With MLCAPES between 2000-3000 J/kg this afternoon and deep layer
shear between 20-35kts, a few severe thunderstorms will be possible.
Will likely see some sunshine which will allow temperatures climb
above normal today. Highs should reach the lower to mid 80s.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed May 11 2016
Expect convection to be ongoing after 00Z Thursday ahead of the cold
front. GFS and NAM continue to show 1200-2000 J/Kg of MUCAPE across
the CWFA during the early evening. 0-6km shear stays relatively
weak though...never really getting stronger than 20kts except over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois which will be closer to
mid-level jet streak. The mode convection takes will be very
dependent on what happens during the afternoon...but a forward
propagating MCS is still the most likely. The system should weaken
through the night with waning instability as it moves southeast.
Convection allowing models aren`t showing much behind the MCS ahead
of the front, but prefer to keep some low chance/slight chance PoPs
in until the front moves through and wipes out the instability.
The GFS has the front all the way southeast through the CWFA by 12-
15Z on Thursday. Models are still printing out some very light QPF
behind the front, so will keep some low chance/slight chance PoPs
going in southeast sections of the CWFA Thursday morning.
Temperatures should be noticeably cooler with lower humidity behind
the front. High pressure will move from the Great Plains down into
Arkansas by Friday morning. Another shortwave will move southeast
across the area Friday afternoon and Friday night pushing another
cold front ahead of it. Guidance continues to print out precip with
the FROPA Friday afternoon and Friday night. Think the amount of
QPF might be overdone since the ridge over the southern CONUS will
be blocking moisture return, but all guidance highlights strong
moisture convergence ahead of the 850mb front. Will keep PoPs going
but will stay in chance category.
Temperatures fall well below normal for the weekend as a sprawling
high pressure system builds over the area from the northern Plains
all the way down to the Gulf Coast. Another longwave trof develops
over the western CONUS Sunday night into Monday. 850 mb flow turns
to the south/southwest bringing low level moisture back to the
region. If medium range guidance works out, Monday and Tuesday look
fairly wet as this moisture is lifted over the cool air at the
surface. Clouds and precipitation will likely contribute to
supresing temperatures below normal for the end of the forecast
period.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
There may be some fog late tonight/early Wednesday morning with a
clear sky and light surface wind. An area of stratus clouds was
also dropping southward through eastern IA and northwestern IL
which could impact UIN towards morning. Could not rule out
weakening showers/storms moving into COU Wednesday morning, but it
appears that the better chance of storms will occur Wednesday
afternoon and evening as the atmosphere destabilizes ahead of an
approaching cold front. For now will just include VCTS in the tafs
Wednesday afternoon/early evening with diurnal cumulus clouds
developing again during the late morning and afternoon. A
strengthening sely surface wind can be expected on Wednesday. The
wind will veer around to a w-nwly direction in UIN and COU
Wednesday evening, and in STL late Wednesday night after fropa.
Specifics for KSTL: A light surface wind will continue late tonight.
There may be some light fog late tonight/early Wednesday morning,
although the NAM MOS guidance looks overdone with its forecast of
stratus and fog during this time. Diurnal cumulus clouds will
develop again late Wednesday morning and afternoon with
thunderstorms by late afternoon or early evening. A strengthening
sely surface wind can be expected on Wednesday. The wind will veer
around to a w-nwly direction after fropa late Wednesday night.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 84 62 74 54 / 40 60 10 5
Quincy 81 56 70 50 / 60 70 10 5
Columbia 82 56 71 49 / 60 70 10 5
Jefferson City 84 58 73 50 / 60 70 10 5
Salem 83 64 74 52 / 30 60 30 10
Farmington 84 61 74 50 / 40 60 30 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Jefferson MO-
Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Pike MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint
Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO.
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Bond IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
334 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Wed May 11 2016
We are faced with yet another complex setup for severe weather
potential today. There are multiple scenarios which could play
out, thus interested parties should monitor for forecast updates
throughout the day.
For starters, elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across west-
central Missouri during the predawn hours. These storms have
developed in an area of isentropic upglide north of a returning
surface warm front. Source parcels have generally been in the
825-750 mb layer with enough CAPE present for a marginally severe
hail threat. We expect these storms to continue shifting slowly
north-northeast through sunrise with some eastward expansion.
Interestingly, Corfidi vectors are very weak across this area. We
will therefore have to monitor for a flash flooding threat. Not
to be forgotten, we will continue to monitor the threat for patchy
dense fog ahead of that returning warm front.
Where confidence begins to wane a bit is on the fate of elevated
convection ongoing across north-central Kansas. It is quite
possible that this activity begins to turn towards the southeast.
This is supported by both Corfidi vectors and an east-southeast
oriented low level theta-e gradient. If this happens, PoPs will
have to be raised considerably this morning. We`ll make a last
minute judgment call on that.
Whether or not that activity makes it in from Kansas will then
play a critical role in convective coverage (and severe potential)
this afternoon. If the morning convection pans out, the atmosphere
will need some time to recover. This may hold down re-development
until later this afternoon. If the morning convection does not pan
out, we may see earlier initiation (mid-afternoon) as RAP forecast
soundings indicate little in the way of inhibition. There may also
be outflow boundaries around which may act to enhance localized
convergence.
As we get into late this afternoon and tonight, a short wave
trough will shift east across the central Plains and will drive a
cold front through the Ozarks. This front should provide enough
convergence for scattered to numerous thunderstorms along and
directly behind the boundary.
As for severe potential, the morning activity across central
Missouri will have a low-end severe hail threat. There would be a
wind threat with any convective clusters with established cold
pools...however current thinking is that it would generally be
sub-severe.
The severe potential will then ramp up this afternoon and continue
into this evening as the atmosphere becomes highly unstable.
Surface dew points in the mid to upper 60s in conjunction with
high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s will result in
MLCAPEs in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Values approaching 3500 J/kg
will be feasible across west-central Missouri if moisture pooling
occurs. While deep layer shear will remain rather weak, there
will be an elevated threat for damaging winds and large hail given
the amount of CAPE as well as 0-3 km theta-e differentials around
30 Kelvin.
The threat for severe storms should then begin to dwindle from
late evening into the overnight period as instability begins to
wane and low level frontal convergence is no longer able to
overcome the level of free convection (LFC).
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Wed May 11 2016
A few leftover showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
Thursday morning across primarily south-central Missouri.
Otherwise, dry weather is expected until the next front arrives
from later Friday into Friday night. Models have sped up the
arrival of this front ever so slightly. At this time, the best
chance for showers and thunderstorms with this front will be
across central Missouri.
That front will then stall somewhere around the Red River region
Saturday night and will likely begin to return north on Sunday as
the upper level flow begins to back to more west-southwesterly.
This should result in increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms from late this weekend into early next week. We will
have to closely watch the potential for heavy rainfall during this
time period. This type of pattern will also present opportunities
for robust convection, however it is far too early to pinpoint
when and where this might occur.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Thunderstorms are beginning to
develop across far southeastern Kansas late this evening as a low
level jet starts to nose into the region. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected to continue to develop to the northeast across far
western Missouri overnight. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible across the rest of the area but coverage will be very
limited and most locations will remain dry. Therefore, have
included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms in the KJLN TAFS early
in the TAF period as the site will be in the area of scattered
thunderstorms. With the limited coverage of storms else where
confidence was too low to include thunder at the KSGF and KBBG TAF
sites.
Low level moisture will advect north into the area overnight and
could result in patchy fog developing early Wednesday morning
across all the TAF sites.
Additional thunderstorms are then expected to develop and dive
south across the area late Wednesday afternoon into the evening
hours affecting the TAF sites. Winds will switch from the south
to the northwest behind the storms Wednesday evening.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Wise
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
226 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. COLD
FRONT CROSSES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
140 AM UPDATE. CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AS TSTMS HAVE
DECREASED TO BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. LOOK FOR A BAND OF
CONVECTION...MAINLY SHOWERS EXCEPT EMBEDDED THUNDER SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
700 PM UPDATE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AND
ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR FEW STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE THREAT WILL
START TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ALSO...WITH LOW FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WE WILL NEED
TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE ON THAT AREA IF ANY CELLS WERE TO START
BACK BUILDING.
620 PM UPDATE...MCS IS ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY AND I HAVE
INCREASED POP ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AS INCREASED
THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. CURRENTLY THE STORMS HAVE BEEN
BORDERLINE SEVERE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL OCCUR. WITH THE SUN GOING DOWN WE EXPECT STORMS TO
WEAKEN A BIT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING DECENT
INSTABILITY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH CAPE VALUES OF 500 - 1000 J/KG
AND WITH ARRIVAL OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING OUR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES JUMP TO ABOUT 7C/KM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS.
5 PM UPDATE...INCREASED POP AND ADDED MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RATHER COMPLICATED PATTERN LASTS INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SHALLOW WARM FRONT ACROSS WV AND KY...ALIGNED
MORE OR LESS IN AN EAST- WEST FASHION. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER KY
IS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG FRONT AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS AREA
FOR PRECIP AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. COULD SEE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF
KY...TRACKING INTO WV LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE A MODEST
ADJUSTMENT TO POPS...TOWARDS THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO BE BE
LATCHING INTO THIS IDEA. CARRIED THUNDER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE
GRIDS AS WELL...WITH A BREAK EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND DIURNAL UPSWING
FOR WED. USED A MODEL BLEND FOR NEAR TERM TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT EXITS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. GOOD WAA AND INSTABILITY INCREASES AS ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STORM FORMATION IS A GOOD BE OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXITS ON
FRIDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. SOILS ARE MOIST
TO WET AND SOME OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR WATER
PROBLEMS. THE ONLY GOOD THING MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING
ALONG AND THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RAINFALL AFFECTS OVER THE AREA.
WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND STARTS TO BRIEFLY DRY US OUT.
GENERALLY KEPT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUICK PROGRESSION OF WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS
AS YET ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE ON TIMING AND POSITION OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WEDNESDAY THRU 06Z THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA REMAINDER OF
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS...WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER OVER SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. AFTER
12Z...ANY ORGANIZED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST WV
WILL END BY 14Z. THEREAFTER...POP UP WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS 17Z-00Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN RELATIVELY
SHOWER FREE 00Z-06Z THURSDAY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THRU 14Z...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT MVFR CONDITIONS AND
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
AFTER 14Z...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FEET AGL...BRIEFLY LOWER
IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
AFTER 01Z...MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG FORMING MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS 03Z- 06Z...INCLUDING MAJOR TAF SITES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM TIL 14Z....AND AGAIN AFTER
01Z...OTHERWISE HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN
AREAS TIL 14Z MAY VARY DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ONSET OF MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 01Z THURSDAY DEPENDS ON
CLOUD BREAKS...WHICH IS EXPECTED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 05/11/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H M M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
MVFR TO IFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN WITH A COLD
FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC/MPK
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
145 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOLLOWING
BEHIND ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THESE FRONTS...COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACRS NRN KY/SRN OHIO AHEAD
OF MID LEVEL S/W AND WEAK SFC WAVE. THESE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR...WHERE PW/S
WERE BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.3 INCHES. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN ACRS THE SOUTH THRU ABOUT 06Z. EXPECT THESE STORMS
TO CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AND BECOMING MORE SCATTERED PRIOR TO
ENDING OVERNIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S. AFTER THE PCPN ENDS IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA OF CONVECTION RIDING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A H5 S/W. THE CONVECTION WILL WORK ACROSS THE FA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...PUSHING THIS INITIAL SURGE THRU THEN BRINGING ANOTHER
WAVE UP AROUND 00Z ASSOCIATED WITH MORE ENERGY EJECTING UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THAT WAVE WILL AFFECT THE MAINLY SRN SECTIONS.
PCPN WILL THEN BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN FROM W TO E AFTER 03Z.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. CANT
RULE OUT SOMETHING ISOLATED POPPING UP...SO CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN A LITTLE. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
CDFNT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GOOD WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL PUSH HIGHS THURSDAY INTO THE
UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DEPARTS EAST.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING SWIFTLY ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
BEFORE THE WAVE SCOOTS EASTWARD. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH A NARROW
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING PRECIP CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WENT CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND WHICH SHOWS
A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIDAY
WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. READINGS
WILL EXHIBIT A COOLING TREND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS HOVERING
AROUND 60. LOOK FOR A REBOUND BACK NEAR 70 BY TUESDAY UNDER MODEST
WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN/SHEAR AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES
UNTIL 09Z AND THE EASTERN TAF SITES UNTIL 15Z. OTHERWISE...FROM
RECENT RAINS AND PER MODEL RH FIELDS...LOW LEVELS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SATURATE OVERNIGHT TO FORM MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
TERMINALS AS THESE AREAS MAY SEE BETTER OVERALL COOLING THAN THE
EAST WHERE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER.
FOR LATER TODAY...LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND BECOME BKN
CUMULUS. THIS PROCESS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN 15Z AND 19Z.
FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ALONG WITH A SUBTLE BOUNDARY/WEAK LOW LEVEL JET...WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SHOWER/STORM TO THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD...AND SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY 06Z. A FEW SHOWERS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS WELL...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACTIVITY WITH THEM. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER ACCORDINGLY. NO
CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
CONTINUE TO WATCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL CONVECTION ALONG IT. CELLS HAVE POPPED UP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD INTO NEB...BUT OVER OUT CWA THINGS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH...HI RES
MODELS DO SHOW SOME UPTICK OVER OUR AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...WILL JUST BE A MATTER OF HOW WIDESPREAD THINGS ARE AND HOW DEEP
ANY CONVECTION IS. HRRR SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THINGS COMPARED TO
OTHER HI RES MODELS. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BEST CAPE VALUES
FROM ABOUT HURON TO MILLER AND POINTS SOUTH. OVERALL BULK SHEAR IS
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE WITH HIGHEST VALUES WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NONETHELESS...STILL ENOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
TO BRING A THREAT FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK MOSTLY DRY BUT COULD STILL BE
DEALING WITH SOME DEPARTING PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA IN THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ND. CONDITIONS MAY FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY OVER THE WEST RIVER
COUNTIES SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR...BUT IT APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL AT
THIS POINT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS CONFINED TO NORTHWEST SD.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN. INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WESTERN CWA BASED
ON 850 MB TEMPS AND GOOD MIXING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS LOOK MOSTLY
QUIET.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
THE PERIOD OPENS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SFC LOW PRESSURE. AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
AROUND THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SATURDAY
WILL DRY CONDITIONS OUT SOMEWHAT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE AT THE FAR END
OF THE PERIOD WHEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S ON FRIDAY ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CWA...BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. IFR CIGS
WILL BE COMMON WITH THE RAIN...WITH VFR CIGS OR MVFR CIGS
BECOMING VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. LOOK FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO EXIT
THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
356 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS AS THIS IMPULSE LIFTS TOWARDS LOUISIANA... WITH LOW
RAIN CHANCES /20 POPS/ CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
THIS FEATURE EXITS THE REGION.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SEVERAL BOUNDARIES DRAPED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF OUR EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS AND STORMS... WITH OUTFLOW LOCATED FROM NEAR LUFKIN TO
COLUMBUS AND ANOTHER BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS TOWARDS GALVESTON BAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY
MAY HELP THESE BOUNDARIES LIFT FARTHER NORTH DURING THE DAY... AND
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING. UNFORTUNATELY... 00Z GUIDANCE DID NOT
INITIALIZE WITH THESE FEATURES AND DO NOT REFLECT ANY SIGNAL FOR
RAINFALL BUT THE 06Z NAM AND LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP ARE BEGINNING
TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CLOSER TO THE COAST /WHERE THE SECOND BOUNDARY
LAY/ MAINTAIN SOME CAPPING THROUGH THE DAY AND THINK GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO
LIVINGSTON LINE TODAY... CLOSER TO THE NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON... SO ANY ACTIVITY THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
ADDITIONALLY... WITH NEARLY 2400 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5 C/KM OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLOUDS
SKIES THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST AND
MID 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND.
FOR TONIGHT... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING BUT MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUING
MENTION OF 20-30 POPS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A RESULT. AT
THE SAME TIME... A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SWINGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND AN UPPER LOW LIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO CANADA WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT... WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
ON THURSDAY... THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING
THE DAY... REACHING SOUTHEAST TEXAS THURSDAY EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION BUT GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LITTLE IF ANY UPPER
SUPPORT... THINK ONLY ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARDS
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... BUT MAY SEE SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING /LOW TO MID 60S INLAND/ AS DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWS FOR SKIES TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY... WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE RED RIVER.
THE 00Z GFS... ECMWF... AND CANADIAN ALL POINT TO SOME
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THIS SHORTWAVE AND
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE THERE ARE
SOME INCONSISTENCIES IN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE /LEADING TO
TRAJECTORY DIFFERENCES IN THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX/... ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE HIGH DURING THIS TIME WITH GFS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.8 INCHES AND
THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE SUNDAY TO MONDAY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY
AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE STATE.
HUFFMAN
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY AND A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. ONSHORE WINDS RESUME SATURDAY AS THE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. ONSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS DEEPENS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TIDE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 88 70 85 68 85 / 30 30 30 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 87 71 86 70 86 / 20 10 30 30 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 74 81 74 81 / 20 10 20 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
350 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...
AN OUTFLOW ENHANCED BOUNDARY WAS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A REMAINING MODEST
PUSH THAT SHOULD GET SOMEWHERE INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ZONES
BEFORE STALLING OUT LATER THIS MORNING. A DRY LINE ALSO CONTINUED TO
RETREAT NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR AREA. MOISTURE WILL
POOL BETTER TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES ALTHOUGH LATEST HRRR AND
RAP LESS THAN CERTAIN THAT DRIER AIR WONT RETURN MUCH OF THIS AREA
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CAPROCK IS EXPECTED TO BE
DOMINATED BY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS...OTHER THAN PERHAPS NORTHERN
AREAS BEHIND THE STALLED FRONT. SOUTHEAST WITH DECENT FORECAST
INSTABILITY AND A WEAK CAP VALID FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATER TODAY
AND ALSO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION RISK FOR SEVERE.
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK A BIT NORTH BUT APPEARS UNLIKELY
TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED STORM CHANCES UNTIL AN UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL REINVIGORATE THE FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RELEASE CONVECTIVE ENERGY ESPECIALLY EASTERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT AT LEAST LOW CHANCE NOW EXPANDED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME RISK THE LATE NIGHT STORM
CHANCES COULD PROVE SEVERE...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT REASSESS IF
NEEDED FOR EXPLICIT MENTION. FEW CHANGES WITH TEMPERATURES.
RMCQUEEN
.LONG TERM...
PRECIP AS WELL AS CLOUDS SHOULD BE MIGRATING SOUTHWARD BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS COOL NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS STAY IN PLACE INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BY
FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE THE EAST AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL MOVE IN AROUND SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. MODEL TRENDS FOR SATURDAY HAVE BEEN ON THE WET SIDE
LATELY BY PICKING UP ON A SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD AND JOINS
FORCES WITH FRONTOGENETIC LIFT. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH THAN THE
ECMWF BY GIVING THE SHORTWAVE MORE ENERGY TO WORK WITH. CONFIDENCE
IN HAVING PRECIP IS DECENTLY HIGH RELATIVELY SPEAKING AS THE
INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE IN PLACE. THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IS WITH HOW
HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE.
MORE PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES AND SURFACE FLOW TRIGGERS OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED
CONVECTION OVER NM WHICH TRANSLATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND
EXITS THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. NEXT ON DECK WILL BE AN UPPER
LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE INNER MOUNTAIN WEST THAT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE FA BY TUESDAY. SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BE
MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD DRY US OUT. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT WILL DEPEND ON
IF MOISTURE CAN BE PUSHED BACK INTO THE REGION QUICK ENOUGH. AS OF
NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER AND WE WILL
REMAIN DRY. AS SUCH THE FORECAST WILL LACK ANY MENTION OF PRECIP
LATE TUESDAY AND BEYOND. ALDRICH
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/51
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS EUREKA CA
608 AM PDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK/WEEKEND, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEL NORTE AND TRINITY COUNTIES. HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA
BY MONDAY, WITH RIDGING AND DRY ADVECTION RETURNING TO THE REGION
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORE THE STORM IS ONE WAY TO SUM UP THE
WEATHER THIS WEEK. CURRENTLY, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS
ACROSS THE WEST COAST, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SET UP JUST OFFSHORE, ALLOWING WARM
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE (SEE TABLE BELOW).
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY, CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN TO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
JET STREAMS POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE,
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTER HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA (OR MAINLY EAST OF A GASQUET TO GABERVILLE
LINE). DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED IN THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS, COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING JET STREAKS, WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO BUILD
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SOUNDING
DATA, SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG, MID-LEVEL (700-500MB) LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 DEGREES C/KM, 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30 KNOTS, TOTAL
TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S, AND BOTH THE LIFTED/SHOWALTER INDICIES
AROUND -3 ALL SUGGEST SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG
(POSSIBLY SEVERE). THIS IS SOMETHING WE`LL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION BY
MONDAY, WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY ADVECTION PUTTING THE
KIBOSH TO OUR RAIN CHANCES AS WE BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. /PD
.RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...
CRESCENT CITY...FORECAST HIGH...69 DEGREES. THE RECORD IS 68 DEGREES
(1959).
EUREKA...FORECAST HIGH..67 DEGREES. THE RECORD HIGH IS 71 DEGREES
(1960).
UKIAH...FORECAST HIGH...87 DEGREES. THE RECORD HIGH IS 97 DEGREES
(1987).
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
DO EXPECT THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH WEAK
FLOW...THERE IS NOT MUCH OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT TO KEEP THE
MARINE STRATUS FROM CREEPING BACK INTO THE AREA. THUS...PUT IN
LOWER FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS FOR CRESCENT CITY AND ARCATA AIRPORTS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. /RCL
&&
.MARINE...NO MARINE HAZARDS FOR THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH START OF THE WEEKEND. EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUOYS FROM POINT SAINT GEORGE DOWN TO CAPE MENDOCINO
AREREPORTING WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 6 FEET. THE PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD
ISABOUT 8 FEET. FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...THE WAVE PERIOD
ISESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 7 FEET...THUS MAKING THE WAVES
SLIGHTLYSTEEP. THE WAVE HEIGHT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING TODAY
INTOTONIGHT...DOWN TO ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET. WITH A WEAK
PRESSUREGRADIENT...EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
MORNING. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS
MORNING, AND THIS WILL BRING IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
AREA WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
SEA STATES. UTILIZE RUC13 IN THE NEAR TERM THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION TO A BLEND OF HI-RES ARW AND HI-RES NMM
MODELS TONIGHT. UTILIZED A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/GEM/OFFICIAL FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT
AVERAGE. /RCL
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS EUREKA CA
530 AM PDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK/WEEKEND, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEL NORTE AND TRINITY COUNTIES. HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA
BY MONDAY, WITH RIDGING AND DRY ADVECTION RETURNING TO THE REGION
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORE THE STORM IS ONE WAY TO SUM UP THE
WEATHER THIS WEEK. CURRENTLY, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS
ACROSS THE WEST COAST, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SET UP JUST OFFSHORE, ALLOWING WARM
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE (SEE TABLE BELOW).
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY, CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN TO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
JET STREAMS POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE,
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTER HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA (OR MAINLY EAST OF A GASQUET TO GABERVILLE
LINE). DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED IN THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS, COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING JET STREAKS, WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO BUILD
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SOUNDING
DATA, SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG, MID-LEVEL (700-500MB) LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 DEGREES C/KM, 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30 KNOTS, TOTAL
TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S, AND BOTH THE LIFTED/SHOWALTER INDICIES
AROUND -3 ALL SUGGEST SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG
(POSSIBLY SEVERE). THIS IS SOMETHING WE`LL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION BY
MONDAY, WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY ADVECTION PUTTING THE
KIBOSH TO OUR RAIN CHANCES AS WE BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. /PD
.RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...
LOCATION: FORECAST: RECORD:
CRESENT CITY 69 68 (1959)
EUREKA6771 (1960)
UKIAH8797 (1987)
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
DO EXPECT THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH WEAK
FLOW...THERE IS NOT MUCH OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT TO KEEP THE
MARINE STRATUS FROM CREEPING BACK INTO THE AREA. THUS...PUT IN
LOWER FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS FOR CRESCENT CITY AND ARCATA AIRPORTS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. /RCL
&&
.MARINE...NO MARINE HAZARDS FOR THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT WINDS AND LOWSEAS EXPECTED THROUGH START OF THE WEEKEND. EARLY THISMORNING...BUOYS FROM POINT SAINT GEORGE DOWN TO CAPE MENDOCINO AREREPORTING WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 6 FEET. THE PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD ISABOUT 8 FEET. FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...THE WAVE PERIOD ISESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 7 FEET...THUS MAKING THE WAVES SLIGHTLYSTEEP. THE WAVE HEIGHT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING TODAY INTOTONIGHT...DOWN TO ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET. WITH A WEAK PRESSUREGRADIENT...EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING,
AND THIS WILL BRING IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AREA WILL
REMAIN WEAK THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEA STATES.
UTILIZE RUC13 IN THE NEAR TERM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
TRANSITION TO A BLEND OF HI-RES ARW AND HI-RES NMM MODELS TONIGHT.
UTILIZE A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/GEM/OFFICIAL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE. /RCL
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
522 AM PDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK/WEEKEND, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEL NORTE AND TRINITY COUNTIES. HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA
BY MONDAY, WITH RIDGING AND DRY ADVECTION RETURNING TO THE REGION
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORE THE STORM IS ONE WAY TO SUM UP THE
WEATHER THIS WEEK. CURRENTLY, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS
ACROSS THE WEST COAST, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SET UP JUST OFFSHORE, ALLOWING WARM
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE (SEE TABLE BELOW).
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY, CROSSING THE REGION DURING
THE WEEKEND. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO COME IN TO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAMS POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT
THE SURFACE, SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (OR MAINLY EAST OF A GASQUET
TO GABERVILLE LINE). DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS, COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING JET STREAKS WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO BUILD FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. TAKING A CLOSER
LOOK AT THE SOUNDING DATA, SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG, MID-LEVEL
(700-500MB) LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEGREES C/KM, AND 6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES NEAR 30 KNOTS SUGGEST, TOTAL TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S, AND
BOTH THE LIFTED/SHOWALTER INDICIES AROUND -3 ALL SUGGEST SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG (POSSIBLY SEVERE). THIS IS
SOMETHING WE`LL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION BY
MONDAY, WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY ADVECTION PUTTING THE
KIBOSH TO OUR RAIN CHANCES AS WE BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. /PD
.RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...
LOCATION: FORECAST: RECORD:
CRESENT CITY 69 68 (1959)
EUREKA6771 (1960)
UKIAH8797 (1987)
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
DO EXPECT THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH WEAK
FLOW...THERE IS NOT MUCH OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT TO KEEP THE
MARINE STRATUS FROM CREEPING BACK INTO THE AREA. THUS...PUT IN
LOWER FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS FOR CRESCENT CITY AND ARCATA AIRPORTS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. /RCL
&&
.MARINE...NO MARINE HAZARDS FOR THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT WINDS AND LOWSEAS EXPECTED THROUGH START OF THE WEEKEND. EARLY THISMORNING...BUOYS FROM POINT SAINT GEORGE DOWN TO CAPE MENDOCINO AREREPORTING WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 6 FEET. THE PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD ISABOUT 8 FEET. FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...THE WAVE PERIOD ISESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 7 FEET...THUS MAKING THE WAVES SLIGHTLYSTEEP. THE WAVE HEIGHT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING TODAY INTOTONIGHT...DOWN TO ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET. WITH A WEAK PRESSUREGRADIENT...EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING,
AND THIS WILL BRING IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AREA WILL
REMAIN WEAK THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEA STATES.
UTILIZE RUC13 IN THE NEAR TERM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
TRANSITION TO A BLEND OF HI-RES ARW AND HI-RES NMM MODELS TONIGHT.
UTILIZE A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/GEM/OFFICIAL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE. /RCL
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
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HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1004 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the Atlantic Coast will continue ridging into
the forecast area through Thursday. Moisture will increase ahead
of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move into the
area Friday. Another cold front with little moisture will move
into the region late Saturday and stall. Moisture will begin to
return along this front Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak frontal boundary will remain north of the forecast area
with a lee-side trough in the area. A mid-level shortwave trough
was helping support thunderstorms in western North Carolina this
morning. Lift associated with the upper feature should remain
mainly north of the forecast area. However...outflow boundaries
from the convection and strong heating may help support
thunderstorms in the north section of the forecast area late this
afternoon. The HRRR suggested scattered coverage in the north part
late this afternoon with this scattered convection sinking
southward into much of the remaining area. We have forecasted
chance pops, mainly in the north section. Instability will be
strong. The NAM indicated surface-based LI`s near -7. Observations
supported an inverted-V type sounding and the water vapor imagery
displayed dry air in the region which should aid downdrafts.
Damaging wind will be possible with the thunderstorms. Wet bulb
zero heights near 10,000 feet and significant CAPE in the hail-
growth region favor hail. Thunderstorm coverage and intensity
should diminish tonight with the loss of heating. Area raob
thicknesses supported highs around 90. The temperature guidance
tonight was consistent.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The models indicate H5 ridging through Thursday which should help
keep moisture shallow. However, strong heating and convergence
into a lee-side trough plus some increase in moisture well ahead
of the cold front may help support thunderstorms mainly in the
northwest section closer to deeper moisture. The models indicate
strong instability. The nam displays surface-based LI`s around -8.
Damaging wind will be possibly with the thunderstorms. Wet bulb
zero heights also favor hail. It should be hot ahead of the front
and we leaned toward the higher temperature guidance.
Moisture should increase Thursday night ahead of a cold front and
mid-level shortwave trough. We leaned toward the higher guidance
pops. Cloudiness and mixing should hold up temperatures. The
temperature guidance was close.
The models show the front in the forecast area Friday with deepest
moisture shifting east of the area early associated with a mid-
level shortwave trough. Moisture becoming more shallow diminishes
confidence, but we leaned toward the higher guidance pops because
of convergence along the front and diurnal heating. Early day
cloudiness and showers should limit instability, but it will be
cold aloft. The NAM and GFS show h5 temperatures -12 to -14 C.
Moderate instability may occur supporting a possibility of
damaging wind with thunderstorms. The cold air aloft may also help
support hail. Followed the guidance consensus for the temperature
forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The models have been consistent with little moisture recovery
behind the lead mid-level shortwave trough before the next cold
front late Saturday or Saturday evening. Expect this front will
stall near the area. The models hold off a return of significant
moisture until at least Monday. The front appears to linger in
the area during the rest of the medium-range period supporting an
increased chance of thunderstorms. The GFS, ECMWF, and EKD MOS
have pops less than 20 percent Saturday and Sunday, and 30 to 40
percent during the rest of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR expected today outside of any convection. Upper impulse, along
with the remnants of an MCS and a stalled front over NC, expected to
promote scattered convection, mainly to the north and northeast of
the terminals this afternoon and evening. Some additional showers,
and a possible thunderstorm, may develop along a sea breeze this
afternoon and evening, but may remain to the south and east of the
terminals. So, chances of convection affecting the terminals too low
to include mention in the TAFS at this time. Fog possible again late
tonight/early Thursday morning, mainly at the fog prone sites AGS
and OGB, depending on the extent of lingering mid level cloud cover.
For now, will indicate TEMPO MVFR at those locations.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning fog possible,
mainly at the fog prone sites AGS and OGB, through Friday. Chance
of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
Thursday, better chances Friday with the passage of an upper
impulse and surface front. No impacts to aviation expected
Saturday/Sunday.
&&
.CAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JL
NEAR TERM...JL
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
714 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed May 11 2016
Main concerns today are dense fog early this morning and potential
severe weather. Have issued a dense fog advisory through mid
morning.
Latest surface observations show that quite a few stations from the
eastern Ozarks into south central Illinois have had visibilities
fall to 1/4 mile the past few hours. Visibilities in the St. Louis
metro area have also fallen recently to less than a mile at times.
With light winds and clear skies, think this trend will continue
through mid morning, so have gone with a dense fog advisory for the
eastern half of the CWA. Conditions should begin to improve once
the sun comes up and mixing begins.
Then the focus turns to the potential for the thunderstorms the rest
of the day. A weak warm front that thunderstorms are forming on
over southwest MO early this morning will lift northward this
morning. There is some potential that scattered thunderstorms will
develop along this front this morning into early this afternoon as
strong moisture convergence develops underneath increasing ascent
from approaching mid level trough. Will show increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms increasing from the west this afternoon.
With MLCAPES between 2000-3000 J/kg this afternoon and deep layer
shear between 20-35kts, a few severe thunderstorms will be possible.
Will likely see some sunshine which will allow temperatures climb
above normal today. Highs should reach the lower to mid 80s.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed May 11 2016
Expect convection to be ongoing after 00Z Thursday ahead of the cold
front. GFS and NAM continue to show 1200-2000 J/Kg of MUCAPE across
the CWFA during the early evening. 0-6km shear stays relatively
weak though...never really getting stronger than 20kts except over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois which will be closer to
mid-level jet streak. The mode convection takes will be very
dependent on what happens during the afternoon...but a forward
propagating MCS is still the most likely. The system should weaken
through the night with waning instability as it moves southeast.
Convection allowing models aren`t showing much behind the MCS ahead
of the front, but prefer to keep some low chance/slight chance PoPs
in until the front moves through and wipes out the instability.
The GFS has the front all the way southeast through the CWFA by 12-
15Z on Thursday. Models are still printing out some very light QPF
behind the front, so will keep some low chance/slight chance PoPs
going in southeast sections of the CWFA Thursday morning.
Temperatures should be noticeably cooler with lower humidity behind
the front. High pressure will move from the Great Plains down into
Arkansas by Friday morning. Another shortwave will move southeast
across the area Friday afternoon and Friday night pushing another
cold front ahead of it. Guidance continues to print out precip with
the FROPA Friday afternoon and Friday night. Think the amount of
QPF might be overdone since the ridge over the southern CONUS will
be blocking moisture return, but all guidance highlights strong
moisture convergence ahead of the 850mb front. Will keep PoPs going
but will stay in chance category.
Temperatures fall well below normal for the weekend as a sprawling
high pressure system builds over the area from the northern Plains
all the way down to the Gulf Coast. Another longwave trof develops
over the western CONUS Sunday night into Monday. 850 mb flow turns
to the south/southwest bringing low level moisture back to the
region. If medium range guidance works out, Monday and Tuesday look
fairly wet as this moisture is lifted over the cool air at the
surface. Clouds and precipitation will likely contribute to
suppressing temperatures below normal for the end of the forecast
period.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 653 AM CDT Wed May 11 2016
Current dense fog at the St. Louis area airports should begin to
lift in the next few hours, before VFR conditions develop by late
this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible today
over the area, with the best chance late this afternoon and this
evening ahead of a cold front. Have timed this out with VCTS and
-SHRA groups in the TAFS. MVFR and possible IFR ceilings and
visibilities can be expected with the thunderstorms. The
strongest storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts
and hail.
Specifics for KSTL: Visibilities will begin to improve in the
next hour and VFR conditions are expected by 15-16Z. Scattered
and thunderstorms are possible throughout the day, but current
thinking is that best timing at the terminal will be late this
afternoon and early this evening. Currently have VFR conditions,
but heavier thunderstorms could produce MVFR and possible IFR
ceilings and visibilities. MVFR ceilings will move into the area
later tonight.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Jefferson MO-
Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Pike MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint
Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO.
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Bond IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
714 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed May 11 2016
Main concerns today are dense fog early this morning and potential
severe weather. Have issued a dense fog advisory through mid
morning.
Latest surface observations show that quite a few stations from the
eastern Ozarks into south central Illinois have had visibilities
fall to 1/4 mile the past few hours. Visibilities in the St. Louis
metro area have also fallen recently to less than a mile at times.
With light winds and clear skies, think this trend will continue
through mid morning, so have gone with a dense fog advisory for the
eastern half of the CWA. Conditions should begin to improve once
the sun comes up and mixing begins.
Then the focus turns to the potential for the thunderstorms the rest
of the day. A weak warm front that thunderstorms are forming on
over southwest MO early this morning will lift northward this
morning. There is some potential that scattered thunderstorms will
develop along this front this morning into early this afternoon as
strong moisture convergence develops underneath increasing ascent
from approaching mid level trough. Will show increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms increasing from the west this afternoon.
With MLCAPES between 2000-3000 J/kg this afternoon and deep layer
shear between 20-35kts, a few severe thunderstorms will be possible.
Will likely see some sunshine which will allow temperatures climb
above normal today. Highs should reach the lower to mid 80s.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed May 11 2016
Expect convection to be ongoing after 00Z Thursday ahead of the cold
front. GFS and NAM continue to show 1200-2000 J/Kg of MUCAPE across
the CWFA during the early evening. 0-6km shear stays relatively
weak though...never really getting stronger than 20kts except over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois which will be closer to
mid-level jet streak. The mode convection takes will be very
dependent on what happens during the afternoon...but a forward
propagating MCS is still the most likely. The system should weaken
through the night with waning instability as it moves southeast.
Convection allowing models aren`t showing much behind the MCS ahead
of the front, but prefer to keep some low chance/slight chance PoPs
in until the front moves through and wipes out the instability.
The GFS has the front all the way southeast through the CWFA by 12-
15Z on Thursday. Models are still printing out some very light QPF
behind the front, so will keep some low chance/slight chance PoPs
going in southeast sections of the CWFA Thursday morning.
Temperatures should be noticeably cooler with lower humidity behind
the front. High pressure will move from the Great Plains down into
Arkansas by Friday morning. Another shortwave will move southeast
across the area Friday afternoon and Friday night pushing another
cold front ahead of it. Guidance continues to print out precip with
the FROPA Friday afternoon and Friday night. Think the amount of
QPF might be overdone since the ridge over the southern CONUS will
be blocking moisture return, but all guidance highlights strong
moisture convergence ahead of the 850mb front. Will keep PoPs going
but will stay in chance category.
Temperatures fall well below normal for the weekend as a sprawling
high pressure system builds over the area from the northern Plains
all the way down to the Gulf Coast. Another longwave trof develops
over the western CONUS Sunday night into Monday. 850 mb flow turns
to the south/southwest bringing low level moisture back to the
region. If medium range guidance works out, Monday and Tuesday look
fairly wet as this moisture is lifted over the cool air at the
surface. Clouds and precipitation will likely contribute to
suppressing temperatures below normal for the end of the forecast
period.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 653 AM CDT Wed May 11 2016
Current dense fog at the St. Louis area airports should begin to
lift in the next few hours, before VFR conditions develop by late
this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible today
over the area, with the best chance late this afternoon and this
evening ahead of a cold front. Have timed this out with VCTS and
-SHRA groups in the TAFS. MVFR and possible IFR ceilings and
visibilities can be expected with the thunderstorms. The
strongest storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts
and hail.
Specifics for KSTL: Visibilities will begin to improve in the
next hour and VFR conditions are expected by 15-16Z. Scattered
and thunderstorms are possible throughout the day, but current
thinking is that best timing at the terminal will be late this
afternoon and early this evening. Currently have VFR conditions,
but heavier thunderstorms could produce MVFR and possible IFR
ceilings and visibilities. MVFR ceilings will move into the area
later tonight.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Jefferson MO-
Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Pike MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint
Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO.
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Bond IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
649 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
...12Z Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Wed May 11 2016
We are faced with yet another complex setup for severe weather
potential today. There are multiple scenarios which could play
out, thus interested parties should monitor for forecast updates
throughout the day.
For starters, elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across west-
central Missouri during the predawn hours. These storms have
developed in an area of isentropic upglide north of a returning
surface warm front. Source parcels have generally been in the
825-750 mb layer with enough CAPE present for a marginally severe
hail threat. We expect these storms to continue shifting slowly
north-northeast through sunrise with some eastward expansion.
Interestingly, Corfidi vectors are very weak across this area. We
will therefore have to monitor for a flash flooding threat. Not
to be forgotten, we will continue to monitor the threat for patchy
dense fog ahead of that returning warm front.
Where confidence begins to wane a bit is on the fate of elevated
convection ongoing across north-central Kansas. It is quite
possible that this activity begins to turn towards the southeast.
This is supported by both Corfidi vectors and an east-southeast
oriented low level theta-e gradient. If this happens, PoPs will
have to be raised considerably this morning. We`ll make a last
minute judgment call on that.
Whether or not that activity makes it in from Kansas will then
play a critical role in convective coverage (and severe potential)
this afternoon. If the morning convection pans out, the atmosphere
will need some time to recover. This may hold down re-development
until later this afternoon. If the morning convection does not pan
out, we may see earlier initiation (mid-afternoon) as RAP forecast
soundings indicate little in the way of inhibition. There may also
be outflow boundaries around which may act to enhance localized
convergence.
As we get into late this afternoon and tonight, a short wave
trough will shift east across the central Plains and will drive a
cold front through the Ozarks. This front should provide enough
convergence for scattered to numerous thunderstorms along and
directly behind the boundary.
As for severe potential, the morning activity across central
Missouri will have a low-end severe hail threat. There would be a
wind threat with any convective clusters with established cold
pools...however current thinking is that it would generally be
sub-severe.
The severe potential will then ramp up this afternoon and continue
into this evening as the atmosphere becomes highly unstable.
Surface dew points in the mid to upper 60s in conjunction with
high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s will result in
MLCAPEs in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Values approaching 3500 J/kg
will be feasible across west-central Missouri if moisture pooling
occurs. While deep layer shear will remain rather weak, there
will be an elevated threat for damaging winds and large hail given
the amount of CAPE as well as 0-3 km theta-e differentials around
30 Kelvin.
The threat for severe storms should then begin to dwindle from
late evening into the overnight period as instability begins to
wane and low level frontal convergence is no longer able to
overcome the level of free convection (LFC).
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Wed May 11 2016
A few leftover showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
Thursday morning across primarily south-central Missouri.
Otherwise, dry weather is expected until the next front arrives
from later Friday into Friday night. Models have sped up the
arrival of this front ever so slightly. At this time, the best
chance for showers and thunderstorms with this front will be
across central Missouri.
That front will then stall somewhere around the Red River region
Saturday night and will likely begin to return north on Sunday as
the upper level flow begins to back to more west-southwesterly.
This should result in increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms from late this weekend into early next week. We will
have to closely watch the potential for heavy rainfall during this
time period. This type of pattern will also present opportunities
for robust convection, however it is far too early to pinpoint
when and where this might occur.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Wed May 11 2016
Widely scattered convection will dissipate early this morning,
along with low cigs and fog across southern Missouri. This should
result in VFR conditions through much of the late morning and
early afternoon.
By late afternoon and especially this evening, thunderstorm
chances will increase across the area as a front begins to move
into and eventually through the region. In addition to affects of
convection, IFR cigs look likely behind the front late tonight.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
628 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY 15Z. WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE WITH A
BIT OF HEATING AND MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF GUSTS. ALTHO MVFR CIGS
HAVE HAD TROUBLE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT, CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR THE LOWER CIGS TO FORM. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING
EARLY IN THE AFTN. BOTH THE HRRR AND THE RAP DEVELOP SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTN ON A REMNANT OUTFLOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES.
THE 06Z NAM AND GFS ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SO
WILL INCLUDE SHRA/TSRA FOR KCLL, KUTS AND KCXO BETWEEN 18-00Z.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS AS THIS IMPULSE LIFTS TOWARDS LOUISIANA... WITH LOW
RAIN CHANCES /20 POPS/ CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
THIS FEATURE EXITS THE REGION.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SEVERAL BOUNDARIES DRAPED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF OUR EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS AND STORMS... WITH OUTFLOW LOCATED FROM NEAR LUFKIN TO
COLUMBUS AND ANOTHER BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS TOWARDS GALVESTON BAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY
MAY HELP THESE BOUNDARIES LIFT FARTHER NORTH DURING THE DAY... AND
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING. UNFORTUNATELY... 00Z GUIDANCE DID NOT
INITIALIZE WITH THESE FEATURES AND DO NOT REFLECT ANY SIGNAL FOR
RAINFALL BUT THE 06Z NAM AND LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP ARE BEGINNING
TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CLOSER TO THE COAST /WHERE THE SECOND BOUNDARY
LAY/ MAINTAIN SOME CAPPING THROUGH THE DAY AND THINK GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO
LIVINGSTON LINE TODAY... CLOSER TO THE NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON... SO ANY ACTIVITY THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
ADDITIONALLY... WITH NEARLY 2400 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5 C/KM OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLOUDS
SKIES THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST AND
MID 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND.
FOR TONIGHT... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING BUT MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUING
MENTION OF 20-30 POPS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A RESULT. AT
THE SAME TIME... A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SWINGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND AN UPPER LOW LIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO CANADA WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT... WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
ON THURSDAY... THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING
THE DAY... REACHING SOUTHEAST TEXAS THURSDAY EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION BUT GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LITTLE IF ANY UPPER
SUPPORT... THINK ONLY ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARDS
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... BUT MAY SEE SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING /LOW TO MID 60S INLAND/ AS DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWS FOR SKIES TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY... WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE RED RIVER.
THE 00Z GFS... ECMWF... AND CANADIAN ALL POINT TO SOME
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THIS SHORTWAVE AND
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE THERE ARE
SOME INCONSISTENCIES IN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE /LEADING TO
TRAJECTORY DIFFERENCES IN THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX/... ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE HIGH DURING THIS TIME WITH GFS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.8 INCHES AND
THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE SUNDAY TO MONDAY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY
AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE STATE.
HUFFMAN
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY AND A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. ONSHORE WINDS RESUME SATURDAY AS THE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. ONSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS DEEPENS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TIDE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 88 70 85 68 85 / 30 30 30 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 87 71 86 70 86 / 20 10 30 30 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 74 81 74 81 / 20 10 20 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1040 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary remains near the Virginia and North Carolina
border today, and drops into the Carolinas by Thursday. The front
lifts north as a warm front Thursday night. A cold front
approaches from the west early Friday and crosses the region
Friday afternoon and evening.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current water vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough tracking
across the Piedmont and this is depicted well by NAM/GFS 310/320K
theta surfaces. The regional radar mosaic shows a band of showers
tracking across the Piedmont with some isolated showers across
central and eastern VA. The surface analysis continues to show a
stationary front in vicinity of the VA/NC border. Considerable
cloud cover continues north of the boundary...with clearing south
of the boundary across ne NC. Morning fog is gradually
dissipating. Any stronger convection associated with the trough
lingers back over TN as it feeds on stronger instability over the
Deep South.
The shortwave trough pushes offshore by early afternoon. A chc of
showers will continue across the northern tier of the area through
midday. A region of subsidence in the wake of the trough should
lead to several hours of quiet conditions this afternoon across
most of the area. However, there is the potential for convection
developing in vicinity of the boundary across ne NC by mid-
afternoon. Weak flow will keep dewpoints in the 60s today. MLCAPE
is progged to range between 750-1000 J/KG in vicinity of the
boundary by afternoon. Severe weather is not anticipated, but
shear around 25-30kt and lift in the mixed phase later could
result in some stronger wind gusts and small hail. Highs today
range from around 70 north to around 80 south. Cooler along the
coast. Shortwave energy digs along the coast late tonight with
the best moisture being pushed offshore. Likely pops will continue
along the immediate coast through late tonight, tapering off to
chc inland. All pcpn is expected to be off the coast by early
Thursday morning. Mild tonight with lows in the mid/upper 50s
north, to low 60s south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTHWARD
THURSDAY AS SHORT-WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE A WARM LAYER (INVERSION) JUST ABOVE 850MB. THIS
WILL ACT AS A CAP, LIKELY LIMITING ANY CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ALSO DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH THANKS TO
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. IN SUMMARY, THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE
PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. SKY AVERAGES PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THANKS TO MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS WARMER A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT FLOW (LITTLE MIXING). HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70`S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH. COOLER
ALONG THE COAST. MIDWEST SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFFSHORE. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY. THE
AMPLIFYING FLOW LIFTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT INDUCE LEE SIDE/THERMAL TROUGHING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
BEST CHANCES, ALBEIT CHANCE, PREVAIL OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MILD...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 60`S.
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY
NIGHT. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
HOWEVER, 11/00Z GFS DEPICTS A VOID OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AS PRECIP DISSIPATES OVER THE PIEDMONT AND REDEVELOPS NEAR
THE COAST. GIVEN THE LIMITED FORCING AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THIS
IS PLAUSIBLE BUT WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE AND MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. WARM SECTOR AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TOWARD 80 DEGREES, BUT
WILL UNDERCUT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER, THETA-E ADVECTION AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60`S WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MLCAPE PROGGED AROUND 1,000 J/KG.
SHEAR ALSO EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 KNOTS SO EXPECT THUNDER AS WELL
ALONG THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR PCPN AND NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. A COLD FRNT SLIDES THRU THE AREA FRI
NGT...WITH PCPN (MAINLY OCCURRING DAYTIME FRI) CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENG HRS OVER ERN AREAS...FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDINESS OVRNGT.
A SECONDARY COLD FRNT/MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PCPN SAT...ESPECIALLY OVER NW AREAS (30% POPS). HI TEMPS
SAT WILL AVG 75-80F. AFTER A COOLER NIGHT SAT NIGHT THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS (LO TEMPS IN THE LO/MID 50S)...SFC HI PRES BRIEFLY BLDS IN
FOR SUN...BEFORE RAIN PSBLY RETURNS MON/TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING LO PRES SYSTM. HI TEMPS SUN THRU TUE AVG IN THE 70S EACH
DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS NEAR OF JUST
SOUTH OF THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
AFFECTING FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING.
ONSHORE WINDS AND MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY.
THIS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE WITH IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING UNTIL
AROUND NOON.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A CHANCE FOR TSTMS FOR THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCLUDED SHOWERS BEGINNING
AROUND 22-00Z. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE
NW LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER GENERALLY IMPROVES DURING
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. THIS
FRONT MAY MOVE NORTH INTO THE SRN WATERS THIS MORNING THEN MOVE BACK
TO THE SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST LATE
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES DURING THE WEEKEND.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN 2 TO 3 FT SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS TURN TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KNOTS EXCEPT THEY MAY INCREASE BRIEFLY IN
VICINITY OF TSTMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ631>638-
654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1040 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.Synopsis...
A stationary front will remain overhead for today and Thursday,
which will continue to be the focus for scattered showers and
thunderstorms. A cold front should finally sweep through the Mid
Atlantic on Friday. Much cooler air will arrive for the weekend.
&&
.Near Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 1040 AM EDT Wednesday...
A decaying mesoscale convective system moved through the area this
morning. This situation has created a much more stable atmosphere,
which will make convective development more difficult to achieve.
Thus, chances of thunder were removed through the late morning and
early afternoon. Afterward, it was prudent to keep the chance of
showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening
for any possible redevelopment. The HRRR model does not show much
coverage, but enough destabilization to the west where the skies
have cleared could be the area to watch. Another large temperature
gradient should likely be in place due to the stationary front
overhead. High temperatures were tweaked in this update to reflect
this scenario.
For tonight, models are all over the place with respect to
potential precipitation. Some of the models indicate nothing
versus others entertaining the idea of more upstream
showers/storms moving into the area along the stationary frontal
boundary. Since this turned out to the the case last night, at
least a chance threat was maintained for showers tonight. At the
very least, if showers do not materialize, it will be a moist
night with areas of fog and drizzle due to low-level stratus that
would likely develop and get lifted up against the east side of
the mountains from the shallow easterly low-level wind.
&&
.Short Term /Thursday through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...
A stationary front will remain over the area through Thursday
night. This front will continue to be a focus for scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Storms on Thursday afternoon
may gel into a line with a few becoming strong to severe.
Confidence is low on severe potential as front is lacking jet
dynamics. However, breaks in the clouds, especially across the
south, will increase instabilities. Convection on Thursday
afternoon will help maintain relatively cool wedge on the east
side of the mountains through Thursday night.
A strong cold front will approach from the west early Friday
morning. With the front coming in during the morning and pushing
the wedge east, the atmosphere should remain stable enough for
mainly rain showers. Models move the front east of the Piedmont by
Friday afternoon. Another front will slide across the region on
Saturday. Light rain showers are possible over the mountains
during Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain warmer than normal until the third front
crosses the region on Saturday. Generally, one can expect
temperatures in the west to range in the 70s with low to mid 80s
east.
&&
.Long Term /Saturday Night Through Tuesday/...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...
The upper level pattern will remain progressive as it becomes
quasi-zonal through early next week. Sunday looks to be mostly
dry with high pressure at the surface, but a frontal boundary will
once again sag into the region from the north and linger through
the early part of next week. This looks to keep a chance for some
showers in our forecast for Sunday night through Monday. A better
chance for precipitation exists by Tuesday as developing low
pressure moves out of the lower Mississippi valley. Temperatures
look to remain a few degrees below normal through this period.
&&
.Aviation /14Z Wednesday through Sunday/...
As of 530 AM EDT Wednesday...
Stationary front remains over the forecast area with VFR conditions
south of the front and areas of MVFR/IFR just north of the front due
to stratus and fog. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will be found along the front through Thursday, which will make
flight conditions a bit of a challenge.
Extended Discussion...
A cold front will finally sweep through the area Friday. Showers
should end followed by clearing on Friday evening. Some MVFR ceilings
could linger into Saturday through the mountains. Otherwise, high
pressure should bring better flying weather throughout the region on
Sunday.
&&
.RNK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...PW
Near Term...PM/PW
Short Term...RCS
Long Term...MBS
Aviation...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS EUREKA CA
1140 AM PDT WED MAY 11 2016
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK/WEEKEND, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEL NORTE AND TRINITY COUNTIES. HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA
BY MONDAY, WITH RIDGING AND DRY ADVECTION RETURNING TO THE REGION
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORE THE STORM IS ONE WAY TO SUM UP THE
WEATHER THIS WEEK. CURRENTLY, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS
ACROSS THE WEST COAST, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SET UP JUST OFFSHORE, ALLOWING WARM
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE (SEE TABLE BELOW).
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY, CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN TO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
JET STREAMS POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE,
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTER HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA (OR MAINLY EAST OF A GASQUET TO GArBERVILLE
LINE). DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED IN THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS, COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING JET STREAKS, WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO BUILD
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SOUNDING
DATA, SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG, MID-LEVEL (700-500MB) LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 DEGREES C/KM, 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30 KNOTS, TOTAL
TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S, AND BOTH THE LIFTED/SHOWALTER INDICIES
AROUND -3 ALL SUGGEST SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG
(POSSIBLY SEVERE). THIS IS SOMETHING WE`LL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION BY
MONDAY, WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY ADVECTION PUTTING THE
KIBOSH TO OUR RAIN CHANCES AS WE BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. /PD
.RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...
CRESCENT CITY...FORECAST HIGH...69 DEGREES. THE RECORD IS 68 DEGREES
(1959).
EUREKA...FORECAST HIGH..67 DEGREES. THE RECORD HIGH IS 71 DEGREES
(1960).
UKIAH...FORECAST HIGH...87 DEGREES. THE RECORD HIGH IS 97 DEGREES
(1987).
&&
.UPDATED AVIATION...Stratus and fog has been spreading northward
around cape mendocino. IFR conditions will periodically push into
the coastal air terminals through the afternoon hours. More
widespread ifr conditions will develop tonight as a shallow marine
layer takes hold at the coast. There is a chance for low ifr
conditions with vsbys dropping to 1/2sm or less in FOG tonight into
thu morning...however confidence is not high at this time.
&&
.MARINE...NO MARINE HAZARDS FOR THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH START OF THE WEEKEND. EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUOYS FROM POINT SAINT GEORGE DOWN TO CAPE MENDOCINO ARE
REPORTING WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 6 FEET. THE PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD IS
ABOUT 8 FEET. FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...THE WAVE PERIOD IS
ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 7 FEET...THUS MAKING THE WAVES SLIGHTLY
STEEP. THE WAVE HEIGHT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING TODAY
INTOTONIGHT...DOWN TO ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT...EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING,
AND THIS WILL BRING IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AREA WILL
REMAIN WEAK THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEA STATES.
UTILIZE RUC13 IN THE NEAR TERM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
TRANSITION TO A BLEND OF HI-RES ARW AND HI-RES NMM MODELS TONIGHT.
UTILIZED A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/GEM/OFFICIAL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE. /RCL
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
643 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain situated between Atlantic high pressure and
a piedmont trough through Thursday. A cold front will move across
the area Friday into Friday night, followed by a reinforcing cold
front Saturday night. High pressure will then build from the north
early next week before low pressure possibly affects the area
toward mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
The biggest concern for tonight at this time is whether or not
convection in the SC Pee Dee makes it this far south. Most recent
trends support more of an eastward movement rather than southeast
in association with an eastward moving short wave heading toward
the Delmarva. High Res models suggest that isolated coverage of
showers/t-storms could survive into far northern berkeley County
and maybe extreme northern Charleston County from about
03-06z...but prefer to maintain a rainfree forecast given minimal
instability and little shear.
Otherwise diurnal cumulus will fade with the setting sun and other
than a little debris clouds from the upstream convection and other
thin cirrus from the west skies will be mostly clear or partly
cloudy through the night. At most some ground fog will form closer
to daybreak.
Dew points in the 60s and a warm southerly synoptic flow regime
will support min temps for the 5th night in a row and for the 8th
time this month well above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday: The area will remain between Atlantic high pressure to the
east and an inland trough of low pressure. By the afternoon some
sunshine will help temperatures rise well into the 80s, with high
temperatures expected to reach the low 90s in most areas away from
the coast. This combined with dew point temperatures in the 60s will
result in modest afternoon instability with lifted indices from -3
to -6 and CAPE values from 1000 to 1500 J/KG. The sea breeze will be
the main focus for afternoon convection as it moves steadily inland
during the afternoon and perhaps a weak upper level disturbance
approaching the area could help initiate convection. Precipitable
water values at or below 1.5 inches during much of the day and the
lack a stronger upper level disturbance support only a 20 to 30
percent chance for showers and thunderstorms, with the activity
diminishing fairly quickly after sunset. Convective chances could
increase late in the west as perhaps some upstream convection
associated with a stronger upper level disturbance approaches the
area. Lows should be mainly in the mid to upper 60s.
Friday: Timing differences among the 12Z models results in lower
confidence in the forecast for Friday. In particular the GFS was
much quicker with the upper system and stripped out much of the mid
and upper level moisture by early afternoon. This scenario would
result in the highest rain chances in the morning with much if not
all of the the activity off the coast by early to mid afternoon.
With other guidance and previous forecast slower, generally only
made some minor adjustments to account for some slightly lower
afternoon precipitation chances in the west. If the GFS trend
continues and especially if other models join the faster solution,
then significant lowering of afternoon rain chances would be needed.
There would be a low threat for a couple of severe thunderstorms
with the slower solution. Highs likely in the upper 80s inland. Any
lingering precipitation should end Friday evening as the front
pushes through and instability wanes.
Saturday: Drier air will move into the area at all levels of the
atmosphere which will result in abundant sunshine. This combined
with down slope westerly to northwesterly low level flow will aid
afternoon high temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 80s in
most areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A reinforcing dry cold front will push through Saturday night with
high pressure generally prevailing to the north through early next
week. Low pressure could eventually develop along the stalled front
nearby leading to more unsettled conditions toward mid week with
increasing temperatures and humidity levels.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR through 18Z Thursday.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There could be some flight restrictions
in showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and early
evening hours on Thursday and especially Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight: Atlantic high pressure anchored to the west/southwest of
bermuda will maintain its hold across the marine
district...providing for a mainly southerly flow at or less than
15 kts. Seas will be a mixture of wind driven waves and swells,
but no higher than 2 or 3 ft. Keeping watch for maybe some of the
convection in the SC Pee Dee that may make a run for our
northernmost waters toward midnight. For now it looks like they
will fall apart before getting into the local waters.
Atlantic high pressure Thursday will give way to a passing cold
front Friday night and then a secondary cold front Saturday night.
There will be a modest southerly surge ahead of the front Friday and
possibly a northerly surge behind the front Sunday. Overall winds
will be at or below 15 knots with seas generally 1 to 3 feet at
least through Saturday.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
345 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain situated between Atlantic high pressure and
a piedmont trough through Thursday. A cold front will move across
the area Friday into Friday night, followed by a reinforcing cold
front Saturday night. High pressure will then build from the north
early next week before low pressure possibly affects the area
toward mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Rest of this afternoon: Visible satellite imagery continues to
show decent cumulus across our area. However, water vapor imagery
shows dry air over our area due to broad mid-level subsidence.
This appears to be enough to inhibit any convection from forming
across our area this afternoon, so pulled any mention of showers
or thunderstorms from the forecast.
Tonight: The upper ridge continues to move to the east while
surface high pressure hovers over the western Atlantic. A shortwave
passing to our north this evening will bring a slight increase in
clouds before moving offshore later tonight. The high-resolution
models, especially the HRRR, indicate some showers currently over
western South Carolina could make their way to our northernmost
counties this evening. However, confidence in this occurring is
low given the subsidence/dry air aloft. Plus, these models
showed showers with the sea breeze this afternoon and they didn`t
materialize. Expect a dry night with scattered clouds. Lows will
fall into the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday: The area will remain between Atlantic high pressure to the
east and an inland trough of low pressure. By the afternoon some
sunshine will help temperatures rise well into the 80s, with high
temperatures expected to reach the low 90s in most areas away from
the coast. This combined with dew point temperatures in the 60s will
result in modest afternoon instability with lifted indices from -3
to -6 and CAPE values from 1000 to 1500 J/KG. The sea breeze will be
the main focus for afternoon convection as it moves steadily inland
during the afternoon and perhaps a weak upper level disturbance
approaching the area could help initiate convection. Precipitable
water values at or below 1.5 inches during much of the day and the
lack a stronger upper level disturbance support only a 20 to 30
percent chance for showers and thunderstorms, with the activity
diminishing fairly quickly after sunset. Convective chances could
increase late in the west as perhaps some upstream convection
associated with a stronger upper level disturbance approaches the
area. Lows should be mainly in the mid to upper 60s.
Friday: Timing differences among the 12Z models results in lower
confidence in the forecast for Friday. In particular the GFS was
much quicker with the upper system and stripped out much of the mid
and upper level moisture by early afternoon. This scenario would
result in the highest rain chances in the morning with much if not
all of the the activity off the coast by early to mid afternoon.
With other guidance and previous forecast slower, generally only
made some minor adjustments to account for some slightly lower
afternoon precipitation chances in the west. If the GFS trend
continues and especially if other models join the faster solution,
then significant lowering of afternoon rain chances would be needed.
There would be a low threat for a couple of severe thunderstorms
with the slower solution. Highs likely in the upper 80s inland. Any
lingering precipitation should end Friday evening as the front
pushes through and instability wanes.
Saturday: Drier air will move into the area at all levels of the
atmosphere which will result in abundant sunshine. This combined
with down slope westerly to northwesterly low level flow will aid
afternoon high temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 80s in
most areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A reinforcing dry cold front will push through Saturday night with
high pressure generally prevailing to the north through early next
week. Low pressure could eventually develop along the stalled front
nearby leading to more unsettled conditions toward mid week with
increasing temperatures and humidity levels.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z TAFS...VFR through 18Z Thursday.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There could be some flight restrictions
in showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and
early evening hours on Thursday and especially Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Atlantic high pressure will continue to be the primary influence
on the marine forecast with south to southwest winds at or below
10 kt and seas mainly 3` or less.
Atlantic high pressure Thursday will give way to a passing cold
front Friday night and then a secondary cold front Saturday night.
There will be a modest southerly surge ahead of the front Friday and
possibly a northerly surge behind the front Sunday. Overall winds
will be at or below 15 knots with seas generally 1 to 3 feet at
least through Saturday.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Peachtree City GA
315 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
The afternoon regional surface analysis shows the ridge axis has
shifted ever so slightly to the south with residual dry air marked
by dewpoints in the upper 50s continuing to reside over central
Georgia. Further north however, a significantly more moist
atmosphere is in place with dewpoints in the mid 60s and combine
that with temperatures in the mid 80s and we are seeing some CAPE
values in excess of 2000 J/KG from Floyd to Cherokee to Banks
counties and points northward. This combined with outflow from
complex north of the area has allowed for the development of
scattered thunderstorms across the area. In addition...mid level
dry air and cold temps aloft with -12C at 500mb has resulted in
strong to isolated severe activity across the far northern tier
with this trend likely to continue into the evening hours.
Models all want to quickly pivot this activity quickly back to
the north later this afternoon but feel they are too quick in
doing so and the momentum of storms already in place will keep
activity ongoing. should see some improvement after 02Z but still
isolated activity possible into the first half of the overnight
period.
Next system will be all about timing as shortwave moves through
the Tennessee and lower Mississippi river valleys late tomorrow
but instability and moisture increases well ahead of this feature.
If climo and history is any indication, storms will be ahead of
the model schedule and be able to take advantage of modest CAPE
and shear values to once again result in strong to isolated severe
storms late Thursday into the first half of Thursday night.
Instability definitely tapers off into Friday morning and have
reduced pops to chance range during this timeframe.
Deese
&&
.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
Overall forecast is on track through early next week. Nice weekend
is expected following the passage of the front Thursday night
through Friday. Have made only minimal adjustments for next week
based on the latest model solutions for the rain chances Monday
night through Wednesday. Previous forecast discussion follows...
31
&&
.AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE...
As upper level system moves into portions of far north GA,
beginning to see some SHRA and TSRA in these areas. Further south,
closer to the ATL terminals, much more isolated activity and have
chosen to handle with VCSH. Otherwise, a VFR forecast in store
with only an approaching frontal system to be concerned with on
Thursday. Looks like main effects will be late requiring only ATL
to have a PROB30 at this time.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
Medium on TSRA chances.
High on remaining elements.
Deese
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 64 88 65 82 / 30 40 40 50
Atlanta 67 86 66 80 / 20 40 40 40
Blairsville 60 82 60 75 / 30 40 60 40
Cartersville 63 86 62 79 / 20 50 60 40
Columbus 66 88 67 84 / 5 20 30 40
Gainesville 65 85 64 79 / 30 40 40 50
Macon 64 89 66 85 / 10 20 30 50
Rome 62 86 61 79 / 20 50 60 30
Peachtree City 62 86 63 80 / 10 30 30 40
Vidalia 66 89 68 87 / 20 20 20 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...Deese
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Peachtree City GA
315 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
The afternoon regional surface analysis shows the ridge axis has
shifted ever so slightly to the south with residual dry air marked
by dewpoints in the upper 50s continuing to reside over central
Georgia. Further north however, a significantly more moist
atmosphere is in place with dewpoints in the mid 60s and combine
that with temperatures in the mid 80s and we are seeing some CAPE
values in excess of 2000 J/KG from Floyd to Cherokee to Banks
counties and points northward. This combined with outflow from
complex north of the area has allowed for the development of
scattered thunderstorms across the area. In addition...mid level
dry air and cold temps aloft with -12C at 500mb has resulted in
strong to isolated severe activity across the far northern tier
with this trend likely to continue into the evening hours.
Models all want to quickly pivot this activity quickly back to
the north later this afternoon but feel they are too quick in
doing so and the momentum of storms already in place will keep
activity ongoing. should see some improvement after 02Z but still
isolated activity possible into the first half of the overnight
period.
Next system will be all about timing as shortwave moves through
the Tennessee and lower Mississippi river valleys late tomorrow
but instability and moisture increases well ahead of this feature.
If climo and history is any indication, storms will be ahead of
the model schedule and be able to take advantage of modest CAPE
and shear values to once again result in strong to isolated severe
storms late Thursday into the first half of Thursday night.
Instability definitely tapers off into Friday morning and have
reduced pops to chance range during this timeframe.
Deese
&&
.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
Overall forecast is on track through early next week. Nice weekend
is expected following the passage of the front Thursday night
through Friday. Have made only minimal adjustments for next week
based on the latest model solutions for the rain chances Monday
night through Wednesday. Previous forecast discussion follows...
31
&&
.AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE...
As upper level system moves into portions of far north GA,
beginning to see some SHRA and TSRA in these areas. Further south,
closer to the ATL terminals, much more isolated activity and have
chosen to handle with VCSH. Otherwise, a VFR forecast in store
with only an approaching frontal system to be concerned with on
Thursday. Looks like main effects will be late requiring only ATL
to have a PROB30 at this time.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
Medium on TSRA chances.
High on remaining elements.
Deese
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 64 88 65 82 / 30 40 40 50
Atlanta 67 86 66 80 / 20 40 40 40
Blairsville 60 82 60 75 / 30 40 60 40
Cartersville 63 86 62 79 / 20 50 60 40
Columbus 66 88 67 84 / 5 20 30 40
Gainesville 65 85 64 79 / 30 40 40 50
Macon 64 89 66 85 / 10 20 30 50
Rome 62 86 61 79 / 20 50 60 30
Peachtree City 62 86 63 80 / 10 30 30 40
Vidalia 66 89 68 87 / 20 20 20 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...Deese
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
223 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue ridging from off the Southeast Coast
westward along the Gulf Coast through Thursday. The ridging has
limited moisture in the forecast area. Moisture will increase in
the area ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest.
The front will move into the area Friday. Another cold front with
little moisture will move into the region late Saturday and stall.
Moisture will begin to return along this front Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak frontal boundary will remain north of the forecast area
with a lee-side trough in the area. water vapor imagery trends
support the model forecast of upper ridging moving into the region.
However...thunderstorms developing in the mountains may move into
the northwest part of the forecast area late this afternoon. The
16z HRRR suggested considerable coverage in the north half of the
area. Have maintained chance pops for now based on the upper
ridging and limited moisture. The noon analysis had surface-based
LI`s -4 to -5 C. Expect moderate afternoon LI`s about -7 by mid
afternoon. Observations supported an inverted-V type sounding and
the water vapor imagery displayed dry air in the region which
should aid downdrafts. Damaging wind will be possible with the
thunderstorms. Wet bulb zero heights near 10,000 feet and
significant CAPE in the hail-growth region favor hail.
Thunderstorm coverage and intensity should diminish tonight with
the loss of heating. Area raob thicknesses supported highs around
90. The temperature guidance tonight was consistent.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The models indicate H5 ridging through Thursday which should help
keep moisture shallow. However, strong heating and convergence
into a lee-side trough plus some increase in moisture well ahead
of the cold front may help support thunderstorms mainly in the
northwest section closer to deeper moisture. The models indicate
strong instability. The nam displays surface-based LI`s around -8.
Damaging wind will be possibly with the thunderstorms. Wet bulb
zero heights also favor hail. It should be hot ahead of the front
and we leaned toward the higher temperature guidance.
Moisture should increase Thursday night ahead of a cold front and
mid-level shortwave trough. We leaned toward the higher guidance
pops. Cloudiness and mixing should hold up temperatures. The
temperature guidance was close.
The models show the front in the forecast area Friday with deepest
moisture shifting east of the area early associated with a mid-
level shortwave trough. Moisture becoming more shallow diminishes
confidence, but we leaned toward the higher guidance pops because
of convergence along the front and diurnal heating. Early day
cloudiness and showers should limit instability, but it will be
cold aloft. The NAM and GFS show h5 temperatures -12 to -14 C.
Moderate instability may occur supporting a possibility of
damaging wind with thunderstorms. The cold air aloft may also help
cause hail. Followed the guidance consensus for the temperature
forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The models have been consistent with little moisture recovery
behind the lead mid-level shortwave trough and h85 westerly flow
before the next cold front late Saturday or Saturday evening.
Expect this front will stall just south of the area Sunday.
The models hold off a return of significant moisture until Monday.
The front appears to linger in the region during the rest of the
medium-range period supporting an increased chance of thunderstorms.
The GFS, ECMWF, and EKD MOS have pops less than 20 percent
Saturday and Sunday, and 30 to 40 percent during the rest of the
period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR expected today outside of any convection. Upper impulse, along
with the remnants of an MCS and a stalled front over NC, expected to
promote scattered convection, mainly to the north and northeast of
the terminals this afternoon and evening. Some additional showers,
and a possible thunderstorm, may develop along a sea breeze this
afternoon and evening, but may remain to the south and east of the
terminals. So, chances of convection affecting the terminals too low
to include mention in the TAFS at this time. Fog possible again late
tonight/early Thursday morning, mainly at the fog prone sites AGS
and OGB, depending on the extent of lingering mid level cloud cover.
For now, will indicate TEMPO MVFR at those locations. diurnal shower
and thunderstorm activity thursday, after 18z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning fog possible,
mainly at the fog prone sites AGS and OGB, through Friday. Chance
of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
Thursday, better chances Friday with the passage of an upper
impulse and surface front. No impacts to aviation expected
Saturday/Sunday.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
603 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
Cold front is finally exiting the area with only small lingering
chcs for convection across the far southeast counties this evening.
The upper trough will remain over the region with another wave
forecast to move across the region tonight with additional lift in
the 800-500mb layer. Lack of instability and a drier airmass should
keep any response to an increase in mid cloud overnight. The
increase in clouds along with some light mixing in the boundary
layer/drier air should help reduce any fog potential at least that
is the thinking at this time.
A dry and quiet day should prevail across the area on Thursday with
highs in the lower to middle 70s along with dewpoints in the 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
Thursday Night through Saturday...
With northwest flow aloft, surface ridge of high pressure moves off
to the southeast Thursday night. Low amplitude shortwave trough in
this northwest flow enters the Central Plains Friday with associated
cold front moving rapidly southeast. Moisture return ahead of this
system is limited, but lift along front strong enough to trigger
showers and thunderstorms by Friday afternoon. These should be out
of east central KS by Friday evening. Cooler temperatures are
expected for Friday night and Saturday...lows in the 40s and highs
in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Short range models all have some
very weak wave in continuing northwest flow producing lift across
the area on Saturday morning. Confidence is not high but have
placed some slight chance probabilities of showers in north central
KS during the morning.
Saturday Night through Wednesday...
A few showers are possible Saturday night through Sunday as the
right entrance region of a 500mb northern stream jet streak positions
over northeast Kansas. Model solutions diverge greatly next week
although it appears as a broad, low amplified trough across the
western United States will slowly push eastward toward the central
plains early next week. The best for chance for shower and
thunderstorm activity in the extended is Monday afternoon into
Tuesday morning as the main upper level wave ejects across the
central plains. Precipitation chances continue Tuesday and Wednesday
as the upper level trough slowly pushes east across the area.
Temperatures will slowly rebound to near 70 degrees by Wednesday
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
Models bring some mid clouds in from the west overnight. This
combined with northwest winds advecting dry air into the area
should preclude any ground fog overnight. Therefore VFR conditions
are expected to prevail with the better moisture and boundary well
to the southeast of the terminals.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Baerg/GDP
AVIATION...Wolters
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
236 PM MDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Wed May 11 2016
17Z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated trough in place
across northern plains, with clear closed circulation over North
Dakota. Of more importance to the Goodland CWA is the next short
wave trough moving over the four corners around the base of large
scale trough. With afternoon destabilization and period of large
scale ascent ahead of this trough, expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop over portions of Colorado and drift to
the east/southeast across the area. Overall instability fields are
limited, so aside from precip threat expect little overall impact.
Temps may dip down into the 30s in a few locations, but do not
expect any widespread frost or freeze conditions.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM MDT Wed May 11 2016
Thursday-Friday: Upper level ridging will build across the western
US with northwest flow developing across the northern plains. The
main upper level jet and mid level storm track will remain well
north of our cwa during these periods supporting dry conditions
through at least Friday afternoon. Temperatures will trend towards
seasonal to slightly above normal values with lee trough
redevelopment in eastern Colorado and southerly flow through the
boundary layer. Highs will generally be in the 70s, with a larger
spread on Friday as a cold front approaches from the north. Ahead of
this front stronger WAA may support highs around 80F.
Friday night-Wednesday: A cold front will push south through the
region and stall south of our region, with below normal temperatures
through these periods and increasing precip chances. Models are
showing the potential for a few showers in our northeast late Friday
night as a band of elevated frontogenesis moves through the area
behind the cold front. Deep moist advection is limited Friday night,
and this could limit potential coverage.
An upper level trough building over the west will eventually result
in SW flow along with southerly return from from the Gulf of Mexico
by Saturday night. This will set the stage for several possible
periods of showers and thunderstorms with a series of quick moving
shortwave troughs and possible closed h7/h5 upper lows moving over
our CWA. The strongest precip signal continues to be on
Monday/Monday night.
Despite the good model overlap in QPF the evolution of the upper
level pattern and impact on the surface pattern is still in
question with less run to run consistency beyond Sunday. Most
guidance is favoring a stationary front remaining outside (west
and south) of our cwa. On the other hand, the operational GFS is
showing this front lifting north as a warm front Monday and the
potential for a severe weather outbreak. I was comfortable with
PoPs inherited by latest blend and cooling temperature trend
considering the ensemble support and model consensus. I am just
not sold on the idea of more than just showers with embedded
thunderstorms or an elevated severe threat at this range.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Wed May 11 2016
Vfr conditions expected for the next 24 hours as area of showers
and thunderstorms this evening will remain to the south of
terminals. Small threat for fog as morning temp-dewpoint spreads
approach 0,but right now vertical profiles do not look favorable
for widespread fog formation.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
324 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
Cold front is finally exiting the area with only small lingering
chcs for convection across the far southeast counties this evening.
The upper trough will remain over the region with another wave
forecast to move across the region tonight with additional lift in
the 800-500mb layer. Lack of instability and a drier airmass should
keep any response to an increase in mid cloud overnight. The
increase in clouds along with some light mixing in the boundary
layer/drier air should help reduce any fog potential at least that
is the thinking at this time.
A dry and quiet day should prevail across the area on Thursday with
highs in the lower to middle 70s along with dewpoints in the 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
Thursday Night through Saturday...
With northwest flow aloft, surface ridge of high pressure moves off
to the southeast Thursday night. Low amplitude shortwave trough in
this northwest flow enters the Central Plains Friday with associated
cold front moving rapidly southeast. Moisture return ahead of this
system is limited, but lift along front strong enough to trigger
showers and thunderstorms by Friday afternoon. These should be out
of east central KS by Friday evening. Cooler temperatures are
expected for Friday night and Saturday...lows in the 40s and highs
in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Short range models all have some
very weak wave in continuing northwest flow producing lift across
the area on Saturday morning. Confidence is not high but have
placed some slight chance probabilities of showers in north central
KS during the morning.
Saturday Night through Wednesday...
A few showers are possible Saturday night through Sunday as the
right entrance region of a 500mb northern stream jet streak positions
over northeast Kansas. Model solutions diverge greatly next week
although it appears as a broad, low amplified trough across the
western United States will slowly push eastward toward the central
plains early next week. The best for chance for shower and
thunderstorm activity in the extended is Monday afternoon into
Tuesday morning as the main upper level wave ejects across the
central plains. Precipitation chances continue Tuesday and Wednesday
as the upper level trough slowly pushes east across the area.
Temperatures will slowly rebound to near 70 degrees by Wednesday
afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
MVFR CIGS will persist at TOP/FOE for a few hours this afternoon
before improving to VFR. Winds will remain NNW and become light
after 00z. Fog potential exists overnight however mid cloud is
forecast to overspread the area so not confident at this point in
lower VIS conds.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Baerg/GDP
AVIATION...CO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
316 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
Main forecast challenge is periodic precip/convective chances
through Saturday. At mid-afternoon, the airmass continues to
destabilize along the surface cold front across southeast Kansas.
It appears the cap may hold until the front moves just southeast
of the forecast area by dark. However will hold a modest chance
PoP in southeast Kansas this evening. If so, a few strong storms
will be possible until dark. Otherwise, cooler drier low level air
will advect south across the forecast area tonight. A trailing
upper shortwave over Colorado will scoot east across Kansas
tonight which may result in some showers over southwest Kansas,
though mainly just some mid-level clouds spreading east across
central and southern Kansas during the night. A rather pleasant
day expected Thursday with light winds and temperatures close to
seasonal average for mid-May. A significant upper trof will drop
southeast across the upper Midwest during Friday which will help
deepen the developing mean longwave across the Great Lakes into
Saturday. This will allow a rather cool Canadian airmass to advect
south across the Midwest and Plains. Latest guidance suggests the
Canadian cold front will move into central Kansas along the I-70
corridor by midday on Friday and into south central and southeast
Kansas Friday afternoon and evening. Despite limited low level
moisture return, still expect modest diurnal instability with max
temperatures near 80F and surface dew points into the lower 50s.
This should result in MLCAPE values around 1000 j/kg in the
presence of about 40 kts of deep layer shear. Convergence along
the southward advancing front should be sufficient to overcome
weakening cap for widely scattered high based convection lending
to a locally damaging wind and hail risk. Despite a cooler drier
low level regime in the wake of the front on Saturday, some mid-
level forcing and moisture may result in some widely scattered
showers and even some isolated thunder with max temperatures much
below seasonal climo.
Darmofal
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
The cool Canadian airmass will be slow to modify into early
next week with temperatures expected to average below climo. The
affects from upper troughing moving through the western Conus into
the Plains should result in better chances for measurable precip,
though details on daily trends are still uncertain.
KED
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
The cold front will continue progressing across the state today.
At 18z it was along the Flint Hills (or southeast of I-35).
A few light showers are affecting areas near KCNU but they are
really amounting to not much of anything.
Convection is expected to redevelop this afternoon after 20z. That
said, the progress of the cold front seems to be well ahead of
model forecasts. It is continues on its current pace, convective
redevelopment will be outside of Kansas.
Overnight, a weak disturbance will move off the High Plains and
track southeast. Showers and thunderstorms will move across the
southwestern portion of Kansas. At this time, confidence is low as
to whether or not the precipitation will affect the regional
airspace. Therefore, included only a mid desk of clouds for now.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 54 77 52 80 / 10 10 0 20
Hutchinson 51 77 52 80 / 10 10 0 30
Newton 52 75 52 79 / 10 10 0 30
ElDorado 52 76 52 79 / 10 10 0 20
Winfield-KWLD 53 77 52 80 / 10 10 0 10
Russell 48 76 52 78 / 10 0 0 20
Great Bend 48 76 52 79 / 10 0 0 20
Salina 50 76 52 79 / 10 0 0 30
McPherson 50 76 52 79 / 10 0 0 30
Coffeyville 56 77 51 80 / 40 10 0 10
Chanute 54 76 51 79 / 30 10 0 20
Iola 53 75 51 78 / 30 0 0 20
Parsons-KPPF 55 76 50 79 / 30 10 0 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...KRC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
316 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
Main forecast challenge is periodic precip/convective chances
through Saturday. At mid-afternoon, the airmass continues to
destabilize along the surface cold front across southeast Kansas.
It appears the cap may hold until the front moves just southeast
of the forecast area by dark. However will hold a modest chance
PoP in southeast Kansas this evening. If so, a few strong storms
will be possible until dark. Otherwise, cooler drier low level air
will advect south across the forecast area tonight. A trailing
upper shortwave over Colorado will scoot east across Kansas
tonight which may result in some showers over southwest Kansas,
though mainly just some mid-level clouds spreading east across
central and southern Kansas during the night. A rather pleasant
day expected Thursday with light winds and temperatures close to
seasonal average for mid-May. A significant upper trof will drop
southeast across the upper Midwest during Friday which will help
deepen the developing mean longwave across the Great Lakes into
Saturday. This will allow a rather cool Canadian airmass to advect
south across the Midwest and Plains. Latest guidance suggests the
Canadian cold front will move into central Kansas along the I-70
corridor by midday on Friday and into south central and southeast
Kansas Friday afternoon and evening. Despite limited low level
moisture return, still expect modest diurnal instability with max
temperatures near 80F and surface dew points into the lower 50s.
This should result in MLCAPE values around 1000 j/kg in the
presence of about 40 kts of deep layer shear. Convergence along
the southward advancing front should be sufficient to overcome
weakening cap for widely scattered high based convection lending
to a locally damaging wind and hail risk. Despite a cooler drier
low level regime in the wake of the front on Saturday, some mid-
level forcing and moisture may result in some widely scattered
showers and even some isolated thunder with max temperatures much
below seasonal climo.
Darmofal
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
The cool Canadian airmass will be slow to modify into early
next week with temperatures expected to average below climo. The
affects from upper troughing moving through the western Conus into
the Plains should result in better chances for measurable precip,
though details on daily trends are still uncertain.
KED
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
The cold front will continue progressing across the state today.
At 18z it was along the Flint Hills (or southeast of I-35).
A few light showers are affecting areas near KCNU but they are
really amounting to not much of anything.
Convection is expected to redevelop this afternoon after 20z. That
said, the progress of the cold front seems to be well ahead of
model forecasts. It is continues on its current pace, convective
redevelopment will be outside of Kansas.
Overnight, a weak disturbance will move off the High Plains and
track southeast. Showers and thunderstorms will move across the
southwestern portion of Kansas. At this time, confidence is low as
to whether or not the precipitation will affect the regional
airspace. Therefore, included only a mid desk of clouds for now.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 54 77 52 80 / 10 10 0 20
Hutchinson 51 77 52 80 / 10 10 0 30
Newton 52 75 52 79 / 10 10 0 30
ElDorado 52 76 52 79 / 10 10 0 20
Winfield-KWLD 53 77 52 80 / 10 10 0 10
Russell 48 76 52 78 / 10 0 0 20
Great Bend 48 76 52 79 / 10 0 0 20
Salina 50 76 52 79 / 10 0 0 30
McPherson 50 76 52 79 / 10 0 0 30
Coffeyville 56 77 51 80 / 40 10 0 10
Chanute 54 76 51 79 / 30 10 0 20
Iola 53 75 51 78 / 30 0 0 20
Parsons-KPPF 55 76 50 79 / 30 10 0 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...KRC
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
225 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
...Updated long term section...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
As of 17Z, a weak upper level ridge is found over the eastern
United States with another building over the eastern Pacific and
far western United States. An upper level long wave trough is in
place between these two features with an upper level low
positioned over central Canada and the Northern Plains. A weak
shortwave is currently moving into western Colorado. A 80+ knot
upper level jet is found south of this shortwave extending
eastward into the Central High Plains. A few upper level clouds
are present over portions of western and north central Kansas and
are expected to dissipate this afternoon. High pressure is
building across western Kansas this morning behind a cold front
that is currently extending from northwestern Missouri, through
eastern Kansas, then through central Oklahoma. As for expected
weather this afternoon, a few thunderstorms are progged to develop
across eastern Colorado and head towards western Kansas. This
activity is not expected to make it into the CWA before 5 PM.
Highs today look to range from the upper 60s across portions of
west central Kansas to upper 70s across portions of south central
Kansas. Winds will generally be from the north northeast this
afternoon shifting to the north northwest this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
The upper level shortwave mentioned in the synopsis will move into
western Kansas this evening. This will create enough lift for the
thunderstorms across eastern Colorado to continue into western
Kansas. A few of these storms may become strong with gusts up to
50 mph and small hail being the main concern. I believe most of
the severe weather will remain south of the forecast area and in
the OK/TX panhandle. Otherwise cloudiness will increase this
evening with mostly cloudy skies. Drier air moves into the area
after midnight with decreased cloudiness from north to south.
Mostly clear skies are anticipated tomorrow as high pressure
dominated the area. Winds tonight look to blow from the northwest
shifting to more of a westerly direction tomorrow as the center of
high pressure starts to slide south of the area. As for temperatures,
lows tonight look to range from the lower 40s across portions of
west central Kansas to lower 50s across portions of south central
Kansas. Highs tomorrow are progged to range from the lower 70s
across portions of west central Kansas to upper 70s across south
central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
Mostly clear skies are expected Thursday night into Friday as a
ridge of high pressure builds above the Western United States. A
strong shortwave looks to move through the Northern Plains during
this time frame and help push a cold front through the area Friday
afternoon. Winds ahead of this front will generally be from the
southwest then shifting to the north behind the front. A few
thunderstorms may form along this front in the afternoon, mainly
south and east of Dodge City. These storms will quickly move south
of the area Friday evening with no precipitation expected Friday
night. A weak disturbance looks to move south of the area Saturday
bringing a slight chance of precipitation along the KS/OK border.
Otherwise expect increasing cloudiness through the day. A series
of disturbances are expected to affect the area for the remainder
of the weekend into the mid part of next week bringing a chance of
thunderstorms to the area each day. Confidence is low on the
timing of these disturbances at this time. As for temperatures,
highs look to reach to around 80 degrees Friday ahead of the
aforementioned cold front, then cool off to around 60 degrees this
weekend. Lows are expected to dip to around 50 degrees Thursday
night with low to mid 40s Friday and Saturday night. Highs rebound
into the 60s Monday and Tuesday with lows generally in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight with
increasing high clouds this evening into the overnight period.
Winds will generally be from the north northwest this afternoon
shifting to the north northwest by midnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 48 76 52 80 / 20 10 10 20
GCK 46 75 50 80 / 40 10 0 10
EHA 47 74 50 82 / 60 10 0 10
LBL 48 75 50 82 / 40 10 10 10
HYS 46 74 51 77 / 10 0 10 10
P28 52 78 53 82 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
225 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
...Updated long term section...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
As of 17Z, a weak upper level ridge is found over the eastern
United States with another building over the eastern Pacific and
far western United States. An upper level long wave trough is in
place between these two features with an upper level low
positioned over central Canada and the Northern Plains. A weak
shortwave is currently moving into western Colorado. A 80+ knot
upper level jet is found south of this shortwave extending
eastward into the Central High Plains. A few upper level clouds
are present over portions of western and north central Kansas and
are expected to dissipate this afternoon. High pressure is
building across western Kansas this morning behind a cold front
that is currently extending from northwestern Missouri, through
eastern Kansas, then through central Oklahoma. As for expected
weather this afternoon, a few thunderstorms are progged to develop
across eastern Colorado and head towards western Kansas. This
activity is not expected to make it into the CWA before 5 PM.
Highs today look to range from the upper 60s across portions of
west central Kansas to upper 70s across portions of south central
Kansas. Winds will generally be from the north northeast this
afternoon shifting to the north northwest this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
The upper level shortwave mentioned in the synopsis will move into
western Kansas this evening. This will create enough lift for the
thunderstorms across eastern Colorado to continue into western
Kansas. A few of these storms may become strong with gusts up to
50 mph and small hail being the main concern. I believe most of
the severe weather will remain south of the forecast area and in
the OK/TX panhandle. Otherwise cloudiness will increase this
evening with mostly cloudy skies. Drier air moves into the area
after midnight with decreased cloudiness from north to south.
Mostly clear skies are anticipated tomorrow as high pressure
dominated the area. Winds tonight look to blow from the northwest
shifting to more of a westerly direction tomorrow as the center of
high pressure starts to slide south of the area. As for temperatures,
lows tonight look to range from the lower 40s across portions of
west central Kansas to lower 50s across portions of south central
Kansas. Highs tomorrow are progged to range from the lower 70s
across portions of west central Kansas to upper 70s across south
central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
Mostly clear skies are expected Thursday night into Friday as a
ridge of high pressure builds above the Western United States. A
strong shortwave looks to move through the Northern Plains during
this time frame and help push a cold front through the area Friday
afternoon. Winds ahead of this front will generally be from the
southwest then shifting to the north behind the front. A few
thunderstorms may form along this front in the afternoon, mainly
south and east of Dodge City. These storms will quickly move south
of the area Friday evening with no precipitation expected Friday
night. A weak disturbance looks to move south of the area Saturday
bringing a slight chance of precipitation along the KS/OK border.
Otherwise expect increasing cloudiness through the day. A series
of disturbances are expected to affect the area for the remainder
of the weekend into the mid part of next week bringing a chance of
thunderstorms to the area each day. Confidence is low on the
timing of these disturbances at this time. As for temperatures,
highs look to reach to around 80 degrees Friday ahead of the
aforementioned cold front, then cool off to around 60 degrees this
weekend. Lows are expected to dip to around 50 degrees Thursday
night with low to mid 40s Friday and Saturday night. Highs rebound
into the 60s Monday and Tuesday with lows generally in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight with
increasing high clouds this evening into the overnight period.
Winds will generally be from the north northwest this afternoon
shifting to the north northwest by midnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 48 76 52 80 / 20 10 10 20
GCK 46 75 50 80 / 40 10 0 10
EHA 47 74 50 82 / 60 10 0 10
LBL 48 75 50 82 / 40 10 10 10
HYS 46 74 51 77 / 10 0 10 10
P28 52 78 53 82 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
143 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
...Updated short term section...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
The upper level shortwave mentioned in the synopsis will move into
western Kansas this evening. This will create enough lift for the
thunderstorms across eastern Colorado to continue into western
Kansas. A few of these storms may become strong with gusts up to
50 mph and small hail being the main concern. I believe most of
the severe weather will remain south of the forecast area and in
the OK/TX panhandle. Otherwise cloudiness will increase this
evening with mostly cloudy skies. Drier air moves into the area
after midnight with decreased cloudiness from north to south.
Mostly clear skies are anticipated tomorrow as high pressure
dominated the area. Winds tonight look to blow from the northwest
shifting to more of a westerly direction tomorrow as the center of
high pressure starts to slide south of the area. As for temperatures,
lows tonight look to range from the lower 40s across portions of
west central Kansas to lower 50s across portions of south central
Kansas. Highs tomorrow are progged to range from the lower 70s
across portions of west central Kansas to upper 70s across south
central Kansas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
The upper level shortwave mentioned in the synopsis will move into
western Kansas this evening. This will create enough lift for the
thunderstorms across eastern Colorado to continue into western
Kansas. A few of these storms may become strong with gusts up to
50 mph and small hail being the main concern. I believe most of
the severe weather will remain south of the forecast area and in
the OK/TX panhandle. Otherwise cloudiness will increase this
evening with mostly cloudy skies. Drier air moves into the area
after midnight with decreased cloudiness from north to south.
Mostly clear skies are anticipated tomorrow as high pressure
dominated the area. Winds tonight look to blow from the northwest
shifting to more of a westerly direction tomorrow as the center of
high pressure starts to slide south of the area. As for temperatures,
lows tonight look to range from the lower 40s across portions of
west central Kansas to lower 50s across portions of south central
Kansas. Highs tomorrow are progged to range from the lower 70s
across portions of west central Kansas to upper 70s across south
central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed May 11 2016
For Thursday and Friday, dry northwesterly flow prevails across the
Plains. A deep upper low will push a significant cold front across
the Plains late Friday with a slight chance for thunderstorms mainly
east of Dodge City. Highs will be in the mid 70s on Thursday, and
around 80 ahead of the cold front on Friday.
For the period of Saturday into next Tuesday, a cool period is
forecast for the Central Plains as sprawling cooler high pressure
pushes across the region. Highs will only be in the mid to upper 60s
with lows from the mid to upper 40s. Slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms also run through this period, but not a lot of
confidence in anything substantial.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight with
increasing high clouds this evening into the overnight period.
Winds will generally be from the north northwest this afternoon
shifting to the north northwest by midnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 72 48 74 51 / 10 20 0 0
GCK 70 46 74 49 / 10 30 0 0
EHA 69 47 73 50 / 40 50 10 0
LBL 72 48 74 50 / 20 40 10 0
HYS 69 46 73 50 / 10 10 0 0
P28 77 52 76 52 / 10 20 10 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1239 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
...Updated synopsis section...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
As of 17Z, a weak upper level ridge is found over the eastern
United States with another building over the eastern Pacific and
far western United States. An upper level long wave trough is in
place between these two features with an upper level low
positioned over central Canada and the Northern Plains. In
addition, a weak shortwave is currently moving into western
Colorado with a 80+ knot upper level jet south of this shortwave
extending eastward into the Central High Plains. A few upper
level clouds are present over portions of western and north
central Kansas and are expected to dissipate this afternoon. A
dome of high pressure as been building across western Kansas this
morning behind a cold front that is currently extending from
northwestern Missouri, through eastern Kansas, then through
central Oklahoma. As for expected weather this afternoon, a few
thunderstorms are progged to develop across eastern Colorado and
head towards western Kansas. This activity is not expected to make
it into the CWA before 5 PM. Highs today look to range from the
upper 60s across portions of west central Kansas to upper 70s
across portions of south central Kansas. Winds will generally be
from the north northeast and gusty this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed May 11 2016
For today, a vorticity lobe on the bottom of an upper low will
move across the Central Plains later tonight. This system will
push some showers and isolated thunderstorms into the far west
around 7 pm, then to near Garden to Dodge and Medicine Lodge and
west in the evening. Rainfall amounts could be 1/4 to 1/2 inch
from around Elkhart to Liberal. After midnight rain chances
decrease rapidly as the upper vort moves east.
Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s with increasing clouds in
the far west late. North to northwest winds of 15 to 30 mph this
morning settle back in the afternoon as high pressure build into the
Central Plains.
Lows tonight will be cool and in the mid to upper 40s with light
northeast winds becoming light and variable. Clouds increase from
west to east with a disturbance and a chance for rainfall mainly
west of Dodge City.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed May 11 2016
For Thursday and Friday, dry northwesterly flow prevails across the
Plains. A deep upper low will push a significant cold front across
the Plains late Friday with a slight chance for thunderstorms mainly
east of Dodge City. Highs will be in the mid 70s on Thursday, and
around 80 ahead of the cold front on Friday.
For the period of Saturday into next Tuesday, a cool period is
forecast for the Central Plains as sprawling cooler high pressure
pushes across the region. Highs will only be in the mid to upper 60s
with lows from the mid to upper 40s. Slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms also run through this period, but not a lot of
confidence in anything substantial.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016
VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight with
increasing high clouds this evening into the overnight period.
Winds will generally be from the north northwest this afternoon
shifting to the north northwest by midnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 72 48 74 51 / 10 20 0 0
GCK 70 46 74 49 / 10 30 0 0
EHA 69 47 73 50 / 40 50 10 0
LBL 72 48 74 50 / 20 40 10 0
HYS 69 46 73 50 / 10 10 0 0
P28 77 52 76 52 / 10 20 10 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1129 AM MDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Wed May 11 2016
17Z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated trough in place
across northern plains, with clear closed circulation over North
Dakota. Of more importance to the Goodland CWA is the next short
wave trough moving over the four corners around the base of large
scale trough. With afternoon destabilization and period of large
scale ascent ahead of this trough, expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop over portions of Colorado and drift to
the east/southeast across the area. Overall instability fields are
limited, so aside from precip threat expect little overall impact.
Temps may dip down into the 30s in a few locations, but do not
expect any widespread frost or freeze conditions.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT WED MAY 11 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOOKING WETTER ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO AN
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START SATURDAY EVENING AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
MOISTURE FROM MEXICO GETS TAPPED INTO AND HELPS WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. CURRENT GFS AND EUROPEAN MODEL RUNS DO NOT HAVE IMPRESSIVE
CAPE VALUES BUT THERE IS SOME GOOD BULK SHEARING AND 700 MB
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW IT
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE SEVERE. RAIN SHOWERS ARE MORE PROBABLE. THE
ISSUE RIGHT NOW FOR MAKING DECISIONS ON SEVERITY DIFFICULT IS THAT
THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE PLACEMENT AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE
TROUGH. THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND SITTING OVER
THE 4 CORNERS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN HAS THE TROUGH
MUCH MORE NORTH AND LESS AMPLIFIED...AND ALSO HAS IT SITTING OVER
THE DAKOTAS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THESE DISCREPANCIES COULD IMPACT
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ONE THING THE MODELS
DO HAVE IN COMMON IS THE PRECIP TIMING. OTHER THAN THAT...WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS TROUGH AND HOW IT IS GOING TO TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Wed May 11 2016
Vfr conditions expected for the next 24 hours as area of showers
and thunderstorms this evening will remain to the south of
terminals. Small threat for fog as morning temp-dewpoint spreads
approach 0,but right now vertical profiles do not look favorable
for widespread fog formation.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
243 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain near the Virginia-North Carolina
border through Thursday. A cold front will pass through the area
Friday. A second stronger front will pass through the region
Saturday. High pressure returns Sunday. Another stationary
boundary is forecast to move over the area early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
Current radar shows rain moving through the northern 1/3 of the
CWA. Satellite/obs show breaks in clouds have formed across the
extreme SW corner of the CWA..as a result temps there have pushed
into the M70s while the northern VA/MD remain in the MU50s. After
the rain pushes into PA there should be several dry hours for the
Mid Atlantic. Fly in the ointment will be if convection develops
but short range models not indicating that.
For tonight continued cloudy with potential for drizzle east of
the mountains as region remains north of the stationary boundary.
Temperatures will not change a lot from today`s highs - primarily
in the mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Big difference in the GFS and NAM on Thursday POPs - NAM giving
area much higher than GFS. 12Z Euro just came in which is showing
somewhat of a short wave ridge over the east coast which would
give the area a brief period of drier weather so will side with
the GFS solution. Temperatures are forecast to return to the L70s.
But the dryness will be short-lived as a cold front moves over WV
Thursday night...crossing the Mid Atlantic Friday morning. We are
currently forecasting likely POPS..but would not be surprised to
see these raised higher in later shifts. Highs again Friday in
the M70s.
Friday night should see another break in precipitation as the
front moves offshore...as well as less clouds than have recently
been seen. Lows in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level disturbance will pivot across the Eastern Great
Lakes Saturday. A surface cold front will push across our region
Saturday. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday
into early Saturday evening. Instability will be marginal and
moisture will be limited given the brief duration of a return flow
Saturday. Temperatures Saturday will be near normal.
High pressure will build east across the Ohio Valley into the mid-
Atlantic region Saturday night and Sunday. Drier air and cooler
temperatures will coincide with the high pressure.
A series of upper level disturbances will train across the Great
Lakes region...as well as across the Tennessee Valley...Sunday
night through Wednesday. The constant flow of disturbances
will lead to pockets of showers from time to time. It is tough to
pinpoint coverage and intensity at this time...however...the best
chance for showers and any thunderstorms will be Tuesday through
Wednesday. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees below
normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The northeastern part of the forecast area is seeing rain..but
this appears to be the last for several hours. MTN currently down
to 2 miles. On other hand CHO has seen rain come to an end and
visibilites have come up. However ceilings remain low across the
entire area. Patchy drizzle/fog expected overnight.
Thursday should see a period of improved conditions.
Ceilings/visiblities expected to degrade again Thursday night and
early Friday as a cold front approaches the region..then improving
again Friday afternoon/evening to VFR range.
IFR conditions possible with showers and thunderstorms Saturday.
Winds west-southwest 5 to 10 knots with gusts over 25 knots in any
thunderstorms Saturday.
VFR conditions Saturday night. Winds becoming west-northwest 5 to
10 knots Saturday night.
&&
.MARINE...
No problems foreseen on the waters tonight through Friday.
No marine hazards expected Saturday and Saturday night. Again, watch
for a rough chop on the Tidal Potomac and Chesapeake Bay waters
Saturday due to stronger thunderstorms.
&&
.CLIMATE...
LONGEST STRETCH OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL
(AT LEAST 0.01 INCHES)
DCA: 14 DAYS (APRIL 27TH-MAY 10TH 2016) PREVIOUS RECORD: 10 DAYS
(JULY 17TH-26TH 1938 AND AUGUST 12TH-21ST 1873).
BWI: 14 DAYS (AUGUST 10TH-23RD 1873)
RECENT STRETCH HAS ENDED WITH JUST A TRACE REPORTED MAY 9TH.
PREVIOUS STRETCH WAS: 12 DAYS (APRIL 27TH-MAY 8TH 2016).
IAD: ONLY RECORDED TRACE AMOUNTS ON MAY 4TH AND APRIL
29TH...KEEPING THE CURRENT STRETCH AT 6 DAYS (MAY 5TH-MAY 10TH
2016). THE RECORD LONGEST STREAK IS 9 DAYS SET IN MULTIPLE YEARS
(2015/2009/2003/1975/1968).
LONGEST STRETCH OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH ANY RAINFALL
(INCLUDING TRACE AMOUNTS)
DCA: 17 DAYS (MARCH 31ST-APRIL 16TH 1935)
CURRENT STRETCH: 14 DAYS (APRIL 27TH-MAY 10TH 2016)
BWI: 17 DAYS (MARCH 31ST-APRIL 16TH 1935)
CURRENT STRETCH: 14 DAYS (APRIL 27TH-MAY 10TH 2016)
IAD: 15 DAYS (APRIL 26TH-MAY 10TH 2016) BREAKS PREVIOUS RECORDS:
MAY 5TH-17TH 1989 AND JUNE 13TH-25TH 1972
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/KLW
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
218 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in southeast canada will slide into southern new england
tonight. A warm front from north carolina into low pressure north
of lake superior will try to lift north into our area late
thursday, before a cold front moves east through the mid atlantic
states friday. another cold front will move across our area late
saturday. low pressure will strengthen near maine sunday into
monday while high pressure passes to our south.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mixed case transition AFD for all short term sections. The long
term will follow this afternoon.
208 PM ESTF update for the remainder of this afternoon:
Weak upper level low pressure (500mb) over the upper Ohio Valley has
a weak area of warm air advection ahead of it and is promoting the
development of showers eastward from southwest PA to the Delmarva.
Weak instability burst with a K index near 30 and precipitable
water probably increasing from the 12z IAD sounding of 1.2 inches
to near 1.4 inches this evening over Delaware.
Afternoon qpf may add up to .50 inches in a few spots of southern
DE where thunderstorms were occurring as of 18z.
Raised pops another 20 pct from the 1230 pm update Md e shore
into s DE this afternoon (near 100 pct) and converted all weather
to coverage showers instead of chance. Ensured scattered
thunderstormswith heavy rain along the southern edge of our
forecast area. Adjusted temps slightly for this afternoon,
warmest near and north of I-80, coolest DE coast.
Partly sunny along and north of I-80, mostly cloudy south of I-78.
light wind, mostly onshore along the coast.
Tonight...Fair north where there may be some radiational cooling.
Leftover showers Delmarva early at night. Added fog as a hazard
there on the Delmarva late tonight. light wind.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
Yet another low confidence forecast whether any showers will occur
Delmarva while the north should stay quite nice. Any fog and low
clouds slow to lift on the Delmarva.
More at 3PM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA DURING A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED VORTICITY IMPULSES
OVERNIGHT, THERE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD ALSO BE PATCHY FOG
OR DRIZZLE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ON FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH WILL
BRING A GREATER POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THERE IS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA, SO THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COULD BECOME GUSTY AROUND 15 TO
20 MPH. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH
WILL AGAIN BRING A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS, AND AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALSO LIKELY
BRING VERY GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT,
ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN TO OUR NORTH, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY BREEZE ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH, AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY CROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY, BUT MAY ONLY BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WIND
DIRECTION CHANGE. WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY DURING THE DAY
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
MONDAY MAY BE A SIMILAR DAY TO SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA. ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ARE POSSIBLE, BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTH WILL BEGIN SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD OUR AREA. AS A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE AREA, SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY
FORECAST AT THIS TIME, SO WE WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
Remainder of this afternoon...Cigs generally 2000-3000 ft near
and south of a KRDG KPHL KACY line with showers edging up to KILG
and KMIV. Used the NAM which seems to have performed best on its
tsections the past 6 hours. Vicinity KTTN and KABE cigs 3500-5000
ft. Light wind.
Tonight...cigs generally 2000-3000 ft or lowering to 2000-3000 ft.
Any showers vicinity KMIV and KILG probably ending by 08z. light
wind.
Thursday...Mostly VFR cigs but chance of MVFR CIGS south portion.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH WITH FOG AND
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS.
FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT COULD CONTINUE TO REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND FRONT 15-20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS EARLY, BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED.
SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
No headlines through Thursday. Light wind...generally 5 to 10 kt. Seas
at or below 3 feet. Water temperatures are near normal now...the
pool of anomalously warm water from the winter having shifted
seaward (eastward).
As a heads up: the rip current information will appear as a subcategory
within the marine section from this time forward (unless there is
a future change).
Rip Currents: Our Surf Zone Forecast (SRF) will begin May 20th,
530 am with twice a day forecasts through September (~530 AM
Day1, ~9 PM for the next day). Our forecasts will be updated at
any time we receive information that the forecast is significantly
in error, including the rip current formation risk (low, moderate,
high), which will be checked against the 1015 AM beach patrol
reports from June 13-Labor Day. This surf zone forecast page will
be news headlined on our home page www.weather.gov/phi for easy
access.
Also beginning May 20, on our homepage, we will host an Experimental
National Beach Forecast page which will have umbrellas locating
most of the beaches, whereby you can click and obtain beach specific
information. We think you`ll like it, though it may need some
adjusting of our crowded beach locations. There will be social
media announcements, both facebook and twitter. Additionally we
will post a nice 90 second science piece on rip current recognition.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH COULD
CAUSE WINDS TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
May, the first 10 days has averaged generally 3.3 to 6.6 degrees
below normal. Rainfall has been above normal, especially the southern
part of our forecast area where positive departures were 2 inches
or greater. Trenton, Allentown and Reading were the only long term
climate locations with positive departures just under 1 inch.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Drag/Robertson
Near Term...Drag 216P
Short Term...Drag 216P
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Drag/Robertson
Marine...Drag/Robertson
Climate...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
209 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will persist until the
passage of a Friday morning cold front. Another cold front will
maintain shower chances Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low currently centered
over northeastern Ohio, which will continue to slowly transition
east over the course of the day. Shower activity is limited at the
moment and limited to just along the leading edge of the shortwave
associated with the low. a break in the clouds early this
afternoon across western Pennsylvania and eastern Ohio has allowed
surface temperatures to jump quickly to the low 70s which has
increased instability as latest analysis shows mixed-layer cape
values increasing. The latest RAP cycle maintains values around
500 J/kg for most of the afternoon but keeps eastern zones more
stable so expect the majority of any thunderstorms that do pop to
be over our western PA / eastern OH zones, closer to the upper low
center. With relatively weak shear and instability expect most
storms to be of the garden variety but isolated strong
thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall are still possible.
Overnight lows will again be above normal with cloud coverage
keeping radiational cooling to a minimum, but should come close
to dewpoints with patchy fog developing after midnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Precipitation chances will continue Thursday as a warm front lifts
over the area. ridging will keep activity from developing much through
the morning, but increasing dewpoints and a shortwave ahead the
approaching cold front along with daytime heating will result in
development by mid- afternoon. Scattered showers and storm
chances will continue thursday night as the cold front crosses the
region. The best chance for stronger storms will be over eastern
Ohio zones late afternoon through early evening.
The evening / overnight timing of frontal passage is unfavorable
for continued thunderstorm activity through the night and expect
mainly showers along the front.
Friday will be largely dry except for a slight chance of seeing
development over higher elevations east of Pittsburgh where
moisture lingers longest. Another cold front will cross the region
Saturday morning bringing another round of rain and cooler
temperatures. With latest M-climate return interval values for
heights and temperatures aloft ranging between 10 and 30, daytime
max temperatures were forecast to be 15 degrees below normal on
average.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A broad east coast trough is expected to result in well below
average temperatures and low shower chances through late in the
weekend. Ridging is progged to briefly build in Monday before a
midwestern trough begins it`s slow approach through mid week,
returning shower chances to the forecast. After Sunday,
temperatures should gradually nudge closer to seasonal levels
through mid week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through this evening, though
an upper level trough combined with marginal instability should
result in scattered thunderstorms across the area this afternoon.
Maintained a VCTS mention if the taf for now as coverage and
timing remain in question. Otherwise, MVFR to IFR conditions in
fog and stratus are possible again late tonight. These conditions
should improve to VFR by late morning Thursday. Thunderstorm
chances return late Thursday with an approaching cold front but
left mention out of tafs for now.
.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Periodic restrictions are expected through Sunday with the
approach and passage of a series of cold fronts, and subsequent
upper troughing.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
151 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
BORDER TODAY, AND DROPS INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY. THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY FRIDAY AND CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY NAM/GFS 310/320K
THETA SURFACES. THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS
TRACKING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA. THE SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
STATIONARY FRONT IN VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH CLEARING SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NE NC. MORNING FOG IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. ANY STRONGER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
LINGERS BACK OVER TN AS IT FEEDS ON STRONGER INSTABILITY OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A CHC OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDDAY. A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
LEAD TO SEVERAL HOURS OF QUIET CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NE NC BY MID-
AFTERNOON. WEAK FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TODAY. MLCAPE
IS PROGGED TO RANGE BETWEEN 750-1000 J/KG IN VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT
SHEAR AROUND 25-30KT AND LIFT IN THE MIXED PHASE LATER COULD
RESULT IN SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGHS TODAY
RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH. COOLER ALONG THE
COAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH
THE BEST MOISTURE BEING PUSHED OFFSHORE. LIKELY POPS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, TAPERING OFF TO
CHC INLAND. ALL PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S
NORTH, TO LOW 60S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTHWARD
THURSDAY AS SHORT-WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE A WARM LAYER (INVERSION) JUST ABOVE 850MB. THIS
WILL ACT AS A CAP, LIKELY LIMITING ANY CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ALSO DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH THANKS TO
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. IN SUMMARY, THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE
PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. SKY AVERAGES PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THANKS TO MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS WARMER A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT FLOW (LITTLE MIXING). HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70`S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH. COOLER
ALONG THE COAST. MIDWEST SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFFSHORE. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY. THE
AMPLIFYING FLOW LIFTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT INDUCE LEE SIDE/THERMAL TROUGHING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
BEST CHANCES, ALBEIT CHANCE, PREVAIL OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MILD...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 60`S.
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY
NIGHT. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
HOWEVER, 11/00Z GFS DEPICTS A VOID OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AS PRECIP DISSIPATES OVER THE PIEDMONT AND REDEVELOPS NEAR
THE COAST. GIVEN THE LIMITED FORCING AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THIS
IS PLAUSIBLE BUT WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE AND MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. WARM SECTOR AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TOWARD 80 DEGREES, BUT
WILL UNDERCUT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER, THETA-E ADVECTION AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60`S WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MLCAPE PROGGED AROUND 1,000 J/KG.
SHEAR ALSO EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 KNOTS SO EXPECT THUNDER AS WELL
ALONG THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR PCPN AND NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. A COLD FRNT SLIDES THRU THE AREA FRI
NGT...WITH PCPN (MAINLY OCCURRING DAYTIME FRI) CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENG HRS OVER ERN AREAS...FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDINESS OVRNGT.
A SECONDARY COLD FRNT/MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PCPN SAT...ESPECIALLY OVER NW AREAS (30% POPS). HI TEMPS
SAT WILL AVG 75-80F. AFTER A COOLER NIGHT SAT NIGHT THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS (LO TEMPS IN THE LO/MID 50S)...SFC HI PRES BRIEFLY BLDS IN
FOR SUN...BEFORE RAIN PSBLY RETURNS MON/TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING LO PRES SYSTM. HI TEMPS SUN THRU TUE AVG IN THE 70S EACH
DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER THIS
AFTN...AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS
AFTN/EVEN...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KORF/KECG. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHWRS
AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL IMPACT KRIC/KSBY THRU 20Z OR SO. ADDITIONAL
SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT THE DETAILS ARE TOUGH TO PINPOINT
ATTM. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC. IFR
(POSSIBLE LIFR) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MOIST LOW-LEVELS STILL IN
PLACE.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THURSDAY (DURING THE DAY) MAY TURN OUT RELATIVELY DRY AFTER
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES
THROUGH FROM THE NW LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER
GENERALLY IMPROVES DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. THIS
FRONT MAY MOVE NORTH INTO THE SRN WATERS THIS MORNING THEN MOVE BACK
TO THE SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST LATE
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES DURING THE WEEKEND.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN 2 TO 3 FT SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS TURN TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KNOTS EXCEPT THEY MAY INCREASE BRIEFLY IN
VICINITY OF TSTMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM/LSA
MARINE...LSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
119 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will persist until the
passage of a Friday morning cold front. Another cold front will
maintain shower chances Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low currently centered
over northeastern Ohio, which will continue to slowly transition
east over the course of the day. Shower activity is limited at the
moment and limited to just along the leading edge of the shortwave
associated with the low. a break in the clouds early this
afternoon across western Pennsylvania and eastern Ohio has allowed
surface temperatures to jump quickly to the low 70s which has
increased instability as latest analysis shows mixed-layer cape
values increasing. The latest RAP cycle maintains values around
500 J/kg for most of the afternoon but keeps eastern zones more
stable so expect the majority of any thunderstorms that do pop to
be over our western PA / eastern OH zones, closer to the upper low
center. With relatively weak shear and instability expect most
storms to be of the garden variety but isolated strong
thunderstorms with and locally heavy rainfall are still possible.
Overnight lows will again be above normal with cloud coverage
keeping radiational cooling to a minimum but should come close to
dewpoints with patchy fog developing after midnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Rain chances continue Thursday into Friday as a warm, moist and
unstable air mass remains ahead of an approaching cold front.
Upper level ridging through Thursday morning will work to
suppress shower development early in the day, so trimmed pops back
through 18Z. Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous
thereafter, primarily across out western zones as dewpoints rise
into the lower 60s. NAM surface dewpoints appear too high,
artificially boosting instability indicators, but enough
instability appears present to mention likely thunderstorms.
The surface cold front crosses the area late Thursday night into
Friday morning. Kept likely pops, with rain showers expected along
the front, but timing will be unfavorable for continued
thunderstorm activity in the pre-dawn hours Friday. Drying trend
expected Friday as the front and focus of showers pushes off to
the east. Still, enough moisture will linger in the higher terrain
SE of PIT to carry a chance of afternoon showers. West winds
behind the cold front will usher in near average temperatures and
lower dewpoint Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A broad east coast trough is expected to set up from the weekend
through early next week, with periodic shower chances and below
average temperatures. The best chance for showers should be with
the passage of a Saturday cold front. The upper flow is progged to
flatten toward mid week, but embedded shortwaves in the flow
should maintain shower chances as temperatures nudge more toward
seasonal levels.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through this evening, though
an upper level trough combined with marginal instability should
result in scattered thunderstorms across the area this afternoon.
Maintained a VCTS mention if the taf for now as coverage and
timing remain in question. Otherwise, MVFR to IFR conditions in
fog and stratus are possible again late tonight. These conditions
should improve to VFR by late morning Thursday. Thunderstorm
chances return late Thursday with an approaching cold front but
left mention out of tafs for now.
.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Periodic restrictions are expected through Sunday with the
approach and passage of a series of cold fronts, and subsequent
upper troughing.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1243 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.AVIATION...
Did not make a lot of changes with latest TAF package. Showers
are continuing to weaken/move east out of the area at present.
Not seeing evidence of leftover outflows/other boundaries with
latest sfc analyses and have dropped the VCTS mentions for the
rest of the aftn. Any development late this aftn should be iso-
lated enough and will amend as needed. Will keep with mostly a
MVFR CIG trend overnight given the progs of still slightly ele-
vated winds just above the sfc during this time frame. Did toy
with the idea of VCSH for tomorrow morning along the coast but
opted to keep things dry for now as fcst WAA did not look that
impressive. 41
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
Morning Forecast Update...Water vapor satellite imagery this
morning shows a weak short wave trough moving through SE Texas
with a few showers. Visible satellite shows substantial cloud
cover but based on water vapor trends the cloud cover should
become more scattered early this afternoon. Temperatures are still
in the low to mid 70s due to the cloud cover and shower activity.
The main changes to the forecast were to update temperature and
sky trends. The forecast will also keep a 20 percent chance of
rain for today. The rest of the forecast looks on track for the
next 24 hours.
For tomorrow we will need to monitor a frontal boundary pushing
into Texas. Convection may form along it over Oklahoma and north
Texas with cold pools helping to force the front south. The front
may slide into SE Texas tomorrow night into Friday. First look at
the NAM and 06z GFS show a weaker frontal push than previous model
runs.
Overpeck
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 87 70 85 68 85 / 20 20 30 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 86 71 86 70 86 / 20 10 30 30 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 74 81 74 81 / 20 10 20 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1220 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFs/
VFR through the afternoon with few to scattered cu and increasing
high clouds. A south wind will continue in the 12 to 17 knot range
along with a few higher gusts.
We anticipate that thunderstorms will develop northwest of the
metroplex TAF sites late this afternoon along an approaching cold
front. Storms may be a bit slower to develop than most of the
models suggest since low level moisture was temporarily scoured out
by evening/overnight convection. The most likely time for impact at
the metroplex terminals will be late this evening generally between
about 04Z and 07Z when storms move off of the cold front. There
should be a lull in activity overnight until the cold front moves
through toward sunrise Thursday. The best window of time for storms
with the front will be between 11Z and 15Z at the metro terminals
and Waco between 15Z and 18Z. The passage of the cold front will
also turn the wind to the north at speeds between 6 and 12 knots.
MVFR ceilings should return late this evening/overnight at all North
and Central Texas TAF sites and prevail through the morning hours
Thursday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/
AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
WEEK. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF RELATIVE QUIET DURING THE
DAY...FOLLOWED BY TWO ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR A DAY OR
TWO BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT US BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING MOST OF THE REGION WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. BY 3-4 PM...TEMPERATURES INCREASE AND SO DOES THE
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF WHAT THE NAM IS
ADVERTISING. THE 00Z NAM DID NOT SEEM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...SO THE CAPE VALUES ARE OVERDONE.
THE FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT AND DRY LINE...AND
WILL THEN MAKE THEIR WAY INTO TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. SHEAR
VALUES DECREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO
EXPECT THE MAIN RISKS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TO BE LARGE HAIL
AND HIGH WINDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES TO NEAR THE RED RIVER...FOCUSING THE
SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR MIDNIGHT AND LASTING
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN
THE FORECAST.
FOX
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 68 78 62 84 / 20 70 40 10 10
Waco 86 68 82 64 83 / 20 40 40 20 10
Paris 85 67 77 58 81 / 20 60 40 10 10
Denton 86 65 77 58 82 / 40 70 40 10 10
McKinney 85 66 78 59 81 / 20 70 40 10 10
Dallas 85 69 80 63 85 / 20 70 40 10 10
Terrell 85 68 81 61 82 / 20 60 40 10 10
Corsicana 86 68 81 64 82 / 20 40 40 20 10
Temple 87 68 82 64 83 / 20 30 40 30 10
Mineral Wells 86 66 78 59 82 / 30 70 40 10 10
&&
.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
82/14
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1219 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.Aviation...Clear skies with north northeasterly winds gusting to
around 25 knots are expected through the next few hours, with wind
speeds decreasing a bit and shifting eastward late this afternoon.
This evening, an approaching storm system will likely spark scattered
showers and thunderstorms that will move into the Panhandles region from
the northwest. A secondary surge of north winds is also expected
during the early evening with northeasterly gusts increasing to 25
to 30 knots. A broken/overcast ceiling will form above the
associated frontal slope in the 4,000 to 5,000 ft range. Pretty high
confidence in prevailing VFR at all terminals through the night with
the exception of the vicinity of thunderstorms. Winds drop off and
shift more easterly Thursday as mid level clouds clear out.
JGG
&&
.Prev Discussion... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...
RUNNING A LITTLE BEHIND SCHEDULE THIS MORNING DUE TO GFE CHRON
ISSUES...BUT ALL IS GOOD NOW. WSR-88D SHOWING COLD FRONT HAVING MOVED
OUT OR JUST ABOUT MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING EAST AND
SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES BY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXIT THE PANHANDLES BY 18Z THURSDAY WITH ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE ENDING BY THAT TIME.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AND WILL ALLOW FOR A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR NORTHWEST
FLOW CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW MENTIONING.
COOL SURFACE RIDGE BUILD DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN
INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE
WEEKEND. VERY ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTING
THE PANHANDLES BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING AND THEN TRACKING
EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEXT MONDAY AND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES NEXT TUESDAY.
SCHNEIDER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 77 48 72 51 84 / 5 40 10 0 5
BEAVER OK 77 48 76 51 84 / 10 40 5 0 5
BOISE CITY OK 71 44 71 49 83 / 20 40 5 0 5
BORGER TX 79 53 74 55 84 / 10 50 10 5 5
BOYS RANCH TX 79 50 73 51 85 / 10 40 10 0 5
CANYON TX 78 48 72 50 84 / 5 40 10 0 5
CLARENDON TX 81 52 74 51 84 / 0 50 20 5 5
DALHART TX 74 46 70 48 82 / 20 40 10 0 5
GUYMON OK 76 47 73 51 84 / 20 50 5 0 5
HEREFORD TX 79 50 71 50 84 / 5 30 10 5 5
LIPSCOMB TX 78 51 77 52 84 / 5 50 10 0 10
PAMPA TX 76 49 73 50 82 / 5 50 10 5 5
SHAMROCK TX 82 54 77 52 83 / 0 50 20 5 5
WELLINGTON TX 85 54 78 52 84 / 0 50 30 5 5
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
17/18
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1220 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFs/
VFR through the afternoon with few to scattered cu and increasing
high clouds. A south wind will continue in the 12 to 17 knot range
along with a few higher gusts.
We anticipate that thunderstorms will develop northwest of the
metroplex TAF sites late this afternoon along an approaching cold
front. Storms may be a bit slower to develop than most of the
models suggest since low level moisture was temporarily scoured out
by evening/overnight convection. The most likely time for impact at
the metroplex terminals will be late this evening generally between
about 04Z and 07Z when storms move off of the cold front. There
should be a lull in activity overnight until the cold front moves
through toward sunrise Thursday. The best window of time for storms
with the front will be between 11Z and 15Z at the metro terminals
and Waco between 15Z and 18Z. The passage of the cold front will
also turn the wind to the north at speeds between 6 and 12 knots.
MVFR ceilings should return late this evening/overnight at all North
and Central Texas TAF sites and prevail through the morning hours
Thursday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/
AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
WEEK. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF RELATIVE QUIET DURING THE
DAY...FOLLOWED BY TWO ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR A DAY OR
TWO BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT US BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING MOST OF THE REGION WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. BY 3-4 PM...TEMPERATURES INCREASE AND SO DOES THE
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF WHAT THE NAM IS
ADVERTISING. THE 00Z NAM DID NOT SEEM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...SO THE CAPE VALUES ARE OVERDONE.
THE FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT AND DRY LINE...AND
WILL THEN MAKE THEIR WAY INTO TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. SHEAR
VALUES DECREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO
EXPECT THE MAIN RISKS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TO BE LARGE HAIL
AND HIGH WINDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES TO NEAR THE RED RIVER...FOCUSING THE
SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR MIDNIGHT AND LASTING
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN
THE FORECAST.
FOX
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 68 78 62 84 / 20 70 40 10 10
Waco 86 68 82 64 83 / 20 40 40 20 10
Paris 85 67 77 58 81 / 20 60 40 10 10
Denton 86 65 77 58 82 / 40 70 40 10 10
McKinney 85 66 78 59 81 / 20 70 40 10 10
Dallas 85 69 80 63 85 / 20 70 40 10 10
Terrell 85 68 81 61 82 / 20 60 40 10 10
Corsicana 86 68 81 64 82 / 20 40 40 20 10
Temple 87 68 82 64 83 / 20 30 40 30 10
Mineral Wells 86 66 78 59 82 / 30 70 40 10 10
&&
.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
82/14
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1219 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.Aviation...Clear skies with north northeasterly winds gusting to
around 25 knots are expected through the next few hours, with wind
speeds decreasing a bit and shifting eastward late this afternoon.
This evening, an approaching storm system will likely spark scattered
showers and thunderstorms that will move into the Panhandles region from
the northwest. A secondary surge of north winds is also expected
during the early evening with northeasterly gusts increasing to 25
to 30 knots. A broken/overcast ceiling will form above the
associated frontal slope in the 4,000 to 5,000 ft range. Pretty high
confidence in prevailing VFR at all terminals through the night with
the exception of the vicinity of thunderstorms. Winds drop off and
shift more easterly Thursday as mid level clouds clear out.
JGG
&&
.Prev Discussion... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...
RUNNING A LITTLE BEHIND SCHEDULE THIS MORNING DUE TO GFE CHRON
ISSUES...BUT ALL IS GOOD NOW. WSR-88D SHOWING COLD FRONT HAVING MOVED
OUT OR JUST ABOUT MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING EAST AND
SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES BY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXIT THE PANHANDLES BY 18Z THURSDAY WITH ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE ENDING BY THAT TIME.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AND WILL ALLOW FOR A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR NORTHWEST
FLOW CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW MENTIONING.
COOL SURFACE RIDGE BUILD DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN
INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE
WEEKEND. VERY ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTING
THE PANHANDLES BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING AND THEN TRACKING
EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEXT MONDAY AND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES NEXT TUESDAY.
SCHNEIDER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 77 48 72 51 84 / 5 40 10 0 5
BEAVER OK 77 48 76 51 84 / 10 40 5 0 5
BOISE CITY OK 71 44 71 49 83 / 20 40 5 0 5
BORGER TX 79 53 74 55 84 / 10 50 10 5 5
BOYS RANCH TX 79 50 73 51 85 / 10 40 10 0 5
CANYON TX 78 48 72 50 84 / 5 40 10 0 5
CLARENDON TX 81 52 74 51 84 / 0 50 20 5 5
DALHART TX 74 46 70 48 82 / 20 40 10 0 5
GUYMON OK 76 47 73 51 84 / 20 50 5 0 5
HEREFORD TX 79 50 71 50 84 / 5 30 10 5 5
LIPSCOMB TX 78 51 77 52 84 / 5 50 10 0 10
PAMPA TX 76 49 73 50 82 / 5 50 10 5 5
SHAMROCK TX 82 54 77 52 83 / 0 50 20 5 5
WELLINGTON TX 85 54 78 52 84 / 0 50 30 5 5
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
17/18
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1129 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...Warm air advection above the shallow cool air mass
behind the outflow boundary quickly weakened this morning as the
boundary stalled. Convection has diminished and removed mention of
pops for remainder of the morning. Clouds will linger over the
Brush Country into the afternoon and lowered max temps a few
degrees. Moisture/instability axis will be over the Brush Country
this afternoon with the possibility of isolated storms forming
over the far northwest part of the forecast area. But chances will
be slight with the strong cap over the region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 89 74 87 75 88 / 10 10 10 10 20
VICTORIA 88 73 89 70 86 / 10 10 20 10 30
LAREDO 97 75 99 73 94 / 10 10 20 10 10
ALICE 93 73 92 73 91 / 10 10 10 10 20
ROCKPORT 86 76 84 74 87 / 10 10 10 10 20
COTULLA 95 73 96 71 91 / 20 10 20 10 20
KINGSVILLE 91 74 90 74 90 / 10 10 10 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 85 76 84 75 85 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Aransas...Calhoun...Kleberg...Nueces.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TMT/89...SHORT TERM
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1129 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...Warm air advection above the shallow cool air mass
behind the outflow boundary quickly weakened this morning as the
boundary stalled. Convection has diminished and removed mention of
pops for remainder of the morning. Clouds will linger over the
Brush Country into the afternoon and lowered max temps a few
degrees. Moisture/instability axis will be over the Brush Country
this afternoon with the possibility of isolated storms forming
over the far northwest part of the forecast area. But chances will
be slight with the strong cap over the region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 89 74 87 75 88 / 10 10 10 10 20
VICTORIA 88 73 89 70 86 / 10 10 20 10 30
LAREDO 97 75 99 73 94 / 10 10 20 10 10
ALICE 93 73 92 73 91 / 10 10 10 10 20
ROCKPORT 86 76 84 74 87 / 10 10 10 10 20
COTULLA 95 73 96 71 91 / 20 10 20 10 20
KINGSVILLE 91 74 90 74 90 / 10 10 10 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 85 76 84 75 85 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Aransas...Calhoun...Kleberg...Nueces.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TMT/89...SHORT TERM
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1120 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
.UPDATE...
it appears that the front has begun to stall out across our srn
counties and the nrn permian basin. as the winds slowly come
around to the west on the caprock...the shallow post-frontal moisture
will be gradually scoured out. however...in the rolling
plains...winds are expected to remain nrly and turn northeasterly
this afternoon...and maintain higher moisture levels especially in
the eastern and southern rolling plains. as for the t-storm
forecast for later this afternoon...it appears development chances
for our area they will be limited to a small region in the srn
rolling plains where the moisture may prove sufficient in the
vicinity of some convergence and lift along the remnant frontal
boundary. given the nebulous large-scale ascent...storm coverage
will likely be isolated...but instability will likely support the
threat of large hail and damaging wind gusts for any storms that
develop. we have made only minor changes to the weather grids but
we will update the hazardous weather outlook to reflect the
somewhat less supportive environment and lower expected coverage
of t-storms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/
AVIATION...
The outflow enhanced frontal boundary was still making southward
progress and should result in mostly northerly low level flow
through midday KPVW and KLBB, perhaps all day at KCDS. Moisture
will remain a premium within the northerly flow although obviously
improved over the exceptionally dry pre-boundary environment. By
sometime in the afternoon, low level flow should recover back to
south or even maybe southwest both KPVW and KLBB and back to the
dry air regime. The best chance for thunder through the daytime
hours will be south of KCDS. Overnight, we are expecting lift to
increase through the Panhandle as an upper trough passes late.
This will enhance thunder chances at KCDS in particular, where a
PROB30 is supported late tonight. RMcQueen
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/
SHORT TERM...
AN OUTFLOW ENHANCED BOUNDARY WAS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A REMAINING MODEST
PUSH THAT SHOULD GET SOMEWHERE INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ZONES
BEFORE STALLING OUT LATER THIS MORNING. A DRY LINE ALSO CONTINUED TO
RETREAT NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR AREA. MOISTURE WILL
POOL BETTER TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES ALTHOUGH LATEST HRRR AND
RAP LESS THAN CERTAIN THAT DRIER AIR WONT RETURN MUCH OF THIS AREA
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CAPROCK IS EXPECTED TO BE
DOMINATED BY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS...OTHER THAN PERHAPS NORTHERN
AREAS BEHIND THE STALLED FRONT. SOUTHEAST WITH DECENT FORECAST
INSTABILITY AND A WEAK CAP VALID FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATER TODAY
AND ALSO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION RISK FOR SEVERE.
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK A BIT NORTH BUT APPEARS UNLIKELY
TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED STORM CHANCES UNTIL AN UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL REINVIGORATE THE FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RELEASE CONVECTIVE ENERGY ESPECIALLY EASTERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT AT LEAST LOW CHANCE NOW EXPANDED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME RISK THE LATE NIGHT STORM
CHANCES COULD PROVE SEVERE...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT REASSESS IF
NEEDED FOR EXPLICIT MENTION. FEW CHANGES WITH TEMPERATURES.
RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
PRECIP AS WELL AS CLOUDS SHOULD BE MIGRATING SOUTHWARD BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS COOL NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS STAY IN PLACE INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BY
FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE THE EAST AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL MOVE IN AROUND SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. MODEL TRENDS FOR SATURDAY HAVE BEEN ON THE WET SIDE
LATELY BY PICKING UP ON A SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD AND JOINS
FORCES WITH FRONTOGENETIC LIFT. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH THAN THE
ECMWF BY GIVING THE SHORTWAVE MORE ENERGY TO WORK WITH. CONFIDENCE
IN HAVING PRECIP IS DECENTLY HIGH RELATIVELY SPEAKING AS THE
INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE IN PLACE. THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IS WITH HOW
HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE.
MORE PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES AND SURFACE FLOW TRIGGERS OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED
CONVECTION OVER NM WHICH TRANSLATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND
EXITS THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. NEXT ON DECK WILL BE AN UPPER
LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE INNER MOUNTAIN WEST THAT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE FA BY TUESDAY. SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BE
MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD DRY US OUT. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT WILL DEPEND ON
IF MOISTURE CAN BE PUSHED BACK INTO THE REGION QUICK ENOUGH. AS OF
NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER AND WE WILL
REMAIN DRY. AS SUCH THE FORECAST WILL LACK ANY MENTION OF PRECIP
LATE TUESDAY AND BEYOND. ALDRICH
LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
$$
&&
.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
33