Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/10/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1226 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE STATE AS
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING OVER WRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. THE MORE
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE LOCATION AND
PROGRESSION OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND THE HRRR SHOW THIS ACTIVITY
SPREADING FURTHER EAST THAN EARLIER EXPECTED.
HAVE ALSO UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
SHRA AND SOME ISOLATED TSRA ARE DEVELOPING OVER WRN SECTIONS OF
AR...AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NE AND EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...THOUGH UNDER THE MORE INTENSE
PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL SEE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. CHANCES FOR
MORE SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND ON MON.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE STATE THIS
MORNING. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 50S BUT THESE WILL
RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN.
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE IN THE WEST PART OF THE
STATE. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON
MONDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE MAIN THREATS...AND WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND THEN WILL BE COOLER MONDAY WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER AND WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT DIVERGED TOO MUCH FM PREVIOUS RUNS
REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. A PROGRESSIVE UPR FLOW PATTERN WL
BRING SEVERAL UPR LVL SYSTEMS ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD...
RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
RAIN CHCS WL BE DIMINISHING ACRS THE FA ON TUE AS THE FIRST IN THE
SERIES OF UPR LVL IMPULSES DEPARTS THE REGION. THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WL ARRIVE LATER WED AND THU AS ANOTHER UPR SHRTWV
INTERACTS WITH AN CDFNT DROPPING SWD INTO AR. THE CDFNT IS FCST TO
DROP S OF THE FA BY FRI...ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO BRIEFLY BLD INTO THE
FA AS THE UPR FLOW PATTERN BCMS NWLY.
YET ANOTHER CDFNT WL DROP SEWD INTO AR HEADING INTO SAT. THE BNDRY
WL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO KEPT LOW CHC POPS IN THE
FCST FOR NOW.
$$
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...62
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG
WARMING TREND WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT
THIS TIME...WITH A MIXTURE OF CUMULOFORM CLOUDS AND CIRRIFORM CLOUDS
MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S-MID 30S...AND THESE TEMPS WERE GENERALLY
UNCHANGED VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 08/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP
WATER VALUE OF 0.63 INCH WAS 0.15 INCH HIGHER VERSUS THIS TIME SAT.
THE COLUMN WAS NEARLY SATURATED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...AND WAS
VERY DRY ABOVE 500 MB.
08/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH THE PRIMARY CENTER ANALYZED OVER NWRN
COLORADO/SERN UTAH. HOWEVER...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/VORT LOBES
WERE ALSO ANALYZED ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTED ONE OF THESE VORT LOBES OVER NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AT
THIS TIME. MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS SE
ARIZONA THIS MORNING.
08/12Z NAM/GFS...08/12Z UNIV OF ARIZONA WRF-NAM AND SEVERAL HRRR
SOLUTIONS WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP INTO THIS EVENING TO BE CONFINED TO GENERALLY ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE 08/09Z SREF WAS AN EXCEPTION...AND DEPICTED A
POTENTIAL SECONDARY AREA OF MEASURABLE PRECIP TO OCCUR ACROSS SANTA
CRUZ/SWRN COCHISE COUNTY.
BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS...WILL UPDATE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO
REDUCE POPS ABOUT 5-10 PERCENT OR SO FROM TUCSON WWD ACROSS THE WRN
DESERTS. WILL STILL DEPICT CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
STILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS GENERALLY AS FAR
WEST AS THE TUCSON METRO AREA.
THE NRN BAJA CALIF VORT LOBE IS PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY EWD INTO FAR
WEST TEXAS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL REDUCE POPS TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AREA-WIDE LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TEMPS ACHIEVED
SAT...AND WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/18Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL TODAY ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF KTUS. SURFACE
WINDS STRONGEST EAST OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KTS. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR
SKIES OR A FEW CLOUDS ABOVE 15K FT AGL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. SURFACE WIND SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND INTO MONDAY MORNING
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO NEXT SATURDAY. A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL
OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /259 AM MST/...THE PERSISTENT OMEGA BLOCK WHICH HAS
KEPT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN RELATIVELY STAGNANT OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY DEAMPLIFY AND BREAK DOWN. AS A
RESULT...THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL FINALLY
BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD TODAY. IN THE MEANTIME...WE`RE LOOKING AT ONE
MORE DAY OF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES A PLEASANT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
CURRENTLY...A SERIES OF VORT MAXES PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
ARE ONCE AGAIN FACILITATING SOME ELEVATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PARTS OF PINAL COUNTY. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE LEANED ON IT FOR THE
SHORT TERM POP TRENDS THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
REMAINING JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA. WHAT SHOULD BE THE LAST IN THE
WAVE OF VORT LOBES SHOULD THEN SWEEP ACROSS (OR JUST SOUTH OF) THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING LOOKS RATHER MEAGER (HEIGHTS MAY
ACTUALLY RISE AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD) BUT IT APPEARS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO WARRANT LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WHITES.
SOLID HEIGHT RISES AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE HOLD SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MIGRATES INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BEGIN A STRONG WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES TAKING A JUMP INTO THE 90S ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
POSSIBLY MAKING A RUN AT THE CENTURY MARK ON THURSDAY FROM TUCSON AND
INTO THE WESTERN ARIZONA DESERTS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME SIGNS OF A BACKDOOR FRONT SLOSHING SOME MOISTURE
INTO OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
TIME FRAME...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS FOR NOW
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED SHALLOW NATURE OF ANY SURFACE MOISTURE.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CARLAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
542 AM MST SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN TODAY. IT WILL ALSO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...BETTER CHANCES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE
REGION DURING THE WORKWEEK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. ANTICIPATE
MANY DESERT LOCATIONS REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING
METRO PHOENIX. HAD A FEW REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL FROM PINAL
COUNTY. THE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY A VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL
ARIZONA WHICH LIKELY HELPED PRODUCE SHOWERS LAST EVENING. COULD ALSO
BE AIDED BY A SMALLER VORT MAX WHICH IS RIGHT ON ITS HEELS OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THE HRRR DEPICTS THE SHOWERS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD AND EXITING OUR FORECAST AREA BY 12-13Z. NCEP HI-RES
NMM AND ARW ALSO DEPICTED THIS BUT APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO FAR
SOUTH AND WERE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH 6 HR FORECASTS.
HRRR AND NCEP NMM/ARW DEPICT REDEVELOPMENT OF MINOR CONVECTION OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA INCLUDING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BUT MAIN
EMPHASIS IS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA. LARGER SCALE MODELS
ALSO DEPICT THIS. THIS IS DESPITE THE FACT THAT YET ANOTHER VORT
MAX...CURRENTLY NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA MEXICO COAST...WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SONORA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA WHICH IS WHERE THE ASSOCIATED
Q-FORCING WILL BE. CAPE IS BETTER OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AND THIS IS A
KEY FACTOR BUT SREF INDICATES THERE IS STILL A BIT OF POTENTIAL FOR
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THUS KEPT POPS GOING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...SLIGHT CHANCE OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AND CHANCE OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. ALSO HAVE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING
THROUGH EVENING. TEMPS STAY COOL TODAY THOUGH ALL THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SLIGHT WARMING TODAY AS THE LOW STARTS SHIFTING EASTWARD.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A PACIFIC RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
WESTERN STATES DURING THE WORKWEEK. THUS DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND REMAIN ON TRACK. HIGH TEMPS REACH NORMAL VALUES ON
TUESDAY...CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES PEAK ON
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY FOR HIGHS AT MANY DESERT LOCATIONS
...INCLUDING PHOENIX...REACHING 100. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS MAY BEGIN
SATURDAY AS 00Z GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE RIDGE WEAKENING AS A TROUGH
TRACKS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND GFS
LESS SO WITH THE CMC/GEM IN BETWEEN. NAEFS MEAN SUPPORTS THAT AS
WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SCATTERED ALTOCU WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH BASES GENERALLY RANGING FROM
8K TO 10K FT. MEANWHILE...A THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER
THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE PHOENIX AREA.
VEERING WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN...WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND
18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING TREND WILL FOLLOW OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RETAIN A
WESTERLY COMPONENT AT KIPL AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AT KBLH...THOUGH
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION...NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL INCREASE TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES IN THE LOWER DESERTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS PERCENT RANGE
WILL STEADILY DECREASE EACH DAY UNTIL THEY REACH THE 7 TO 11 PERCENT
RANGE ON THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15
TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/SAWTELLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
343 AM MST SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN TODAY. IT WILL ALSO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...BETTER CHANCES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE
REGION DURING THE WORKWEEK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. ANTICIPATE
MANY DESERT LOCATIONS REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING
METRO PHOENIX. HAD A FEW REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL FROM PINAL
COUNTY. THE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY A VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL
ARIZONA WHICH LIKELY HELPED PRODUCE SHOWERS LAST EVENING. COULD ALSO
BE AIDED BY A SMALLER VORT MAX WHICH IS RIGHT ON ITS HEELS OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THE HRRR DEPICTS THE SHOWERS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD AND EXITING OUR FORECAST AREA BY 12-13Z. NCEP HI-RES
NMM AND ARW ALSO DEPICTED THIS BUT APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO FAR
SOUTH AND WERE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH 6 HR FORECASTS.
HRRR AND NCEP NMM/ARW DEPICT REDEVELOPMENT OF MINOR CONVECTION OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA INCLUDING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BUT MAIN
EMPHASIS IS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA. LARGER SCALE MODELS
ALSO DEPICT THIS. THIS IS DESPITE THE FACT THAT YET ANOTHER VORT
MAX...CURRENTLY NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA MEXICO COAST...WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SONORA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA WHICH IS WHERE THE ASSOCIATED
Q-FORCING WILL BE. CAPE IS BETTER OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AND THIS IS A
KEY FACTOR BUT SREF INDICATES THERE IS STILL A BIT OF POTENTIAL FOR
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THUS KEPT POPS GOING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...SLIGHT CHANCE OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AND CHANCE OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. ALSO HAVE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING
THROUGH EVENING. TEMPS STAY COOL TODAY THOUGH ALL THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SLIGHT WARMING TODAY AS THE LOW STARTS SHIFTING EASTWARD.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A PACIFIC RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
WESTERN STATES DURING THE WORKWEEK. THUS DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND REMAIN ON TRACK. HIGH TEMPS REACH NORMAL VALUES ON
TUESDAY...CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES PEAK ON
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY FOR HIGHS AT MANY DESERT LOCATIONS
...INCLUDING PHOENIX...REACHING 100. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS MAY BEGIN
SATURDAY AS 00Z GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE RIDGE WEAKENING AS A TROUGH
TRACKS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND GFS
LESS SO WITH THE CMC/GEM IN BETWEEN. NAEFS MEAN SUPPORTS THAT AS
WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WESTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA DUE TO AN
AREA OF SHOWERS THAT CLIPPED THE WEST VALLEY. THE WEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE
AND VARIABLE TOWARD 12Z. SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL WINDS FOR SUNDAY MORNING
WITH WINDS PICKING BACK UP MORE FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SWINGING TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 7KFT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
DECREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION...NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL INCREASE TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TUESDAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS PERCENT RANGE WILL STEADILY DECREASE EACH DAY
UNTIL THEY REACH THE 7 TO 11 PERCENT RANGE ON THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON MOSTLY IN THE TONTO FOOTHILLS AND
S.GILA COUNTY. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES GUSTING
TO 17 TO 24 KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS
WELL AS IN SE CALIFORNIA.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...INIGUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...SAWTELLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
259 AM MST SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG
WARMING TREND WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE PERSISTENT OMEGA BLOCK WHICH HAS KEPT THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN RELATIVELY STAGNANT OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY DEAMPLIFY AND BREAK DOWN. AS A
RESULT...THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
FINALLY BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD TODAY. IN THE MEANTIME...WE`RE
LOOKING AT ONE MORE DAY OF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES A PLEASANT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY.
CURRENTLY...A SERIES OF VORT MAXES PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
ARE ONCE AGAIN FACILITATING SOME ELEVATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PARTS OF PINAL COUNTY. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE
A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE LEANED ON IT
FOR THE SHORT TERM POP TRENDS THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINING JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA. WHAT SHOULD BE THE
LAST IN THE WAVE OF VORT LOBES SHOULD THEN SWEEP ACROSS (OR JUST
SOUTH OF) THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING LOOKS RATHER
MEAGER (HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY RISE AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHWARD) BUT IT APPEARS ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO
WARRANT LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WHITES.
SOLID HEIGHT RISES AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE HOLD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MIGRATES
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BEGIN A STRONG WARMING TREND NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TAKING A JUMP INTO THE 90S ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN POSSIBLY MAKING A RUN AT THE CENTURY MARK ON
THURSDAY FROM TUCSON AND INTO THE WESTERN ARIZONA DESERTS. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME SIGNS OF A BACKDOOR FRONT SLOSHING SOME
MOISTURE INTO OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE PRECIP-
FREE CONDITIONS FOR NOW GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED SHALLOW NATURE OF
ANY SURFACE MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL TODAY ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF KTUS. SURFACE
WINDS STRONGEST EAST OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KTS. GRADUALLY CLEARING CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
KEEP COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE AROUND TODAY. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES AROUND 15
MPH PERSISTING TODAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON GUSTINESS THEREAFTER.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY ALONG WITH
A STRONG WARMING TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
CARLAW
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1045 PM MST SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF ARIZONA. FOR SUNDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH DESERT HIGHS CLIMBING BACK TOWARD THE CENTURY MARK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE WESTERN STATES THIS EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS IN THE
LAS VEGAS VICINITY...THOUGH A CLEAR SECONDARY SHORT WAVE IS CURLING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT. IT IS THIS SECOND EMBEDDED SYSTEM THAT CAUSED A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS
EVENING. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS
SITUATION WELL /WHILE INTERESTINGLY THE HRRR-X IS MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE PRECIPITATION/. MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT ON POPS TO
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BASED ON LATEST DATA/TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW CENTER SITUATED NEAR THE NV/UT/AZ
BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY.
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
INTO TONIGHT...BUT CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN THAT OF YESTERDAY
AS SUPPORT ALOFT HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND NO OBVIOUS VORT
LOBES WILL MOVE THROUGH. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT
LOBE OFF THE BAJA COAST WHICH IS FORECAST TO MAINLY PASS BY TO OUR
SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE SWINGING BACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE PASSES JUST
TO OUR SOUTH...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL DECREASE AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SOME SHOWERS
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX WITH TIMING GENERALLY BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LAST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA. MODELS POINT TOWARD MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES WITH THIS LAST FEATURE WITH 20 POPS MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS AND 30-40 POPS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD STARTING TONIGHT...WE WILL START TO SEE SOME WARMING
ALOFT...BUT THAT WILL ONLY TRANSLATE INTO A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING
FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
ALOFT QUICKLY RISING INTO TUESDAY. THE MAIN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL STAY
OFF THE WEST COAST...BUT CONSIDERABLE WARMING ALOFT WILL OCCUR UNDER
THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB EACH DAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ON MONDAY AND THEN
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR TUESDAY. SOME SURFACE MOISTURE WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.
GOOD ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT INDICATES THE PACIFIC RIDGE EVENTUALLY
SHIFTS ONSHORE AND OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRY US OUT FURTHER WHILE HEIGHTS
ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH 500MB HEIGHTS NEARING 585DM...OR NEAR
THE 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE FOR THE REGION. LOWER DESERT
HIGHS SHOULD TOP 100 DEGREES IN MANY SPOTS BY THURSDAY...LASTING
INTO FRIDAY. THESE READINGS WOULD STILL FALL SHORT OF RECORDS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES. THOUGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...THERE ARE INDICATIONS TEMPERATURES MAY MODERATE SOMEWHAT AS
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS BY WELL TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WESTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA DUE TO AN
AREA OF SHOWERS THAT CLIPPED THE WEST VALLEY. THE WEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSEAND
VARIABLE TOWARD 12Z. SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL WINDS FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS PICKING BACK UP MORE FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SWINGING TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 7KFT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
DECREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS PERCENT RANGE
WILL STEADILY DECREASE EACH DAY UNTIL THEY REACH THE 7 TO 11 PERCENT
RANGE ON THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15
TO 20KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON MOSTLY IN
THE TONTO FOOTHILLS AND S.GILA COUNTY. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES GUSTING TO 17 TO 24 KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS WELL AS IN SE CALIFORNIA.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...INIGUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...SAWTELLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
304 PM PDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY...DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW THAT IMPACTED THE REGION THE PAST FEW
DAYS CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER AND A SUBTLE WARMING TREND. THE SHORT TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA...WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN BACKING OFF ON SHOWERS ALONG THE WEST SIDE RUN
AFTER RUN TODAY...WHICH IS LEADING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
SIERRA CREST GENERALLY FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD. CU BUILDUPS
WERE ALSO PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH THE
ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS MIXED WITH A FEW
HOURS OF DIRECT SUNLIGHT EARLIER IN THE DAY.
GENERALLY UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA CREST DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY.
THE SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
ADVERTISING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK. SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON THESE DAYS...WHICH IS BETWEEN 5 AND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF MAY.
A COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE NEXT WEEKEND OVER THE REGION AS A
STORM SYSTEM BRUSHES NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DIP TO NEAR NORMAL BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THRU 06Z
MON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...ROWE
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
522 AM PDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE DRY TODAY WITH PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE LOW CENTER IS FAR REMOVED FROM OUR
AREA...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL HAVING A DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. A
BAND OF SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW PASSED THROUGH THE NORTH BAY OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING AS MUCH AS
0.39" OR RAIN AT MOUNT SAINT HELENA IN NORTHWEST NAPA COUNTY AND
UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN SONOMA COUNTY. IN
ADDITION...MEASURABLE RAIN FELL AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN MATEO COUNTY.
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
DISSIPATING AND EXPECT NEARLY ALL PRECIP TO END BY SUNRISE.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA CAN
CURRENTLY BE SEEN MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. SOME OF THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR OUR FORECAST
AREA AROUND SUNRISE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HRRR MODEL...AS WELL
AS THE 00Z ECMWF. SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS MORNING FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR AREA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL END ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY...AND WE SHOULD SEE
PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES...WHICH
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE SINCE THE MIDDLE OF LAST
WEEK...ARE FORECAST TO WARM BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE BY TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL LIKELY MEAN AREAS OF NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE ECMWF FORECASTS AND UPPER LOW TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH
WOULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA. THE GFS INDICATES THAT SYSTEM WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST WELL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST AND THUS KEEPS ALL PRECIP
WELL TO OUR NORTH...WHICH WAS WHAT THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF
SHOWED. WILL NEED BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT/CONSISTENCY BEFORE
INTRODUCING RAIN CHANCES AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 AM PDT SUNDAY...A MIXED BAG OF CIGS THIS
MORNING WITH BASES AROUND THE AREA VARYING FROM 1200 FEET TO 2500
FEET WITH A FEW SPOTS LIKE SFO AT 4000-5000 FEET. MORNING
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT SFO AND THE APPROACH THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER CHALLANGE IS HOW LONG THE CIGS WILL LAST. GFS SHOWS CIGS
LIFTING TO 4000-5000 FEET AFTER 18Z WHILE NAM KEEPS MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE LESSENING
EFFECT OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS EAST SUPPORT THE GFS
SOLUTION.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR AROUND THE AIRPORT THROUGH 18Z.
CIGS LIFTING BUT A CIG OF 4000-5000 FEET WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR THROUGH 19Z.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR THROUGH 20Z. CIGS RISING INTO VFR
RANGE AFTER 20Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 2:33 AM PDT SUNDAY...A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
WEST OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
424 AM PDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND FOR THE INTERIOR
WHILE COASTAL AREAS CONTINUE TO SEE A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OFF THE WEST COAST
OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS. MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGES WILL BE CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COAST AND HOW WARM IT GETS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
INTERIOR AREAS WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING TREND HOWEVER 500MB
HEIGHTS ONLY MAX OUT AT AROUND 576 DAM SO RESULTING DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST
DAY BEING ON THURSDAY. COASTSIDE... GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE SHOULD
PROVIDE MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SOME LATE IN THE DAY
CLEARING POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY
DECENT OFFSHORE FLOW AT NIGHT AND AN INCREASINGLY DEEPENING MARINE
LAYER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS MAY CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE ON THE
GLOOMY SIDE...ESPECIALLY AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY. HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS DO SHOW SOME DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY BRING SOME BETTER
CHANCES OF COASTAL SUNSHINE ON TUES AND WED.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING THE RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE EAST PAC. AT THIS TIME MODELS
ARE NOT PAINTING MUCH PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. AT A MINIMUM COASTAL AREAS SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME PERIODS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE INTERIOR ZONES. JT
&&
.AVIATION...STRATUS BROUGHT MFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK PASSING WAVE WILL
HELP LIFT CEILINGS WHILE FURTHER MIXING WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD HELP ERODE CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST TODAY WITH KCEC SEEING THE MOST IMPROVEMENT
BY THE AFTERNOON. BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY
BUT THEY WILL BE MUCH MORE STUBBORN AND WANT TO STICK AROUND KACV
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD HELP INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST LATER TONIGHT BUT EXPECT
CEILINGS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY ONCE AGAIN. KML
&&
.MARINE...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY AS TIGHT NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/OREGON COAST. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEATHER FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. BUOYS
ARE SHOWING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THIS SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING, AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA. DO
EXPECT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS, WHILE THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS WILL SEE DEVELOPING GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING. THE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS, AND
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 13 FT ON THE OUTSIDE WATERS...WITH
THE HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN PORTION. MOST OF THE WAVE
ENERGIES ARE WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD WAVES. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE STARTING ON TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER
THE AREA.
UTILIZED HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING RUC13 AND HRRR IN UPDATING
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PACKAGE ON SUNDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO A
BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/NAM THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ450.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ475.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
302 AM PDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE DRY TODAY WITH PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE LOW CENTER IS FAR REMOVED FROM OUR
AREA...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL HAVING A DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. A
BAND OF SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW PASSED THROUGH THE NORTH BAY OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING AS MUCH AS
0.39" OR RAIN AT MOUNT SAINT HELENA IN NORTHWEST NAPA COUNTY AND
UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN SONOMA COUNTY. IN
ADDITION...MEASURABLE RAIN FELL AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN MATEO COUNTY.
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
DISSIPATING AND EXPECT NEARLY ALL PRECIP TO END BY SUNRISE.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA CAN
CURRENTLY BE SEEN MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. SOME OF THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR OUR FORECAST
AREA AROUND SUNRISE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HRRR MODEL...AS WELL
AS THE 00Z ECMWF. SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS MORNING FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR AREA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL END ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY...AND WE SHOULD SEE
PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES...WHICH
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE SINCE THE MIDDLE OF LAST
WEEK...ARE FORECAST TO WARM BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE BY TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL LIKELY MEAN AREAS OF NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE ECMWF FORECASTS AND UPPER LOW TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH
WOULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA. THE GFS INDICATES THAT SYSTEM WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST WELL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST AND THUS KEEPS ALL PRECIP
WELL TO OUR NORTH...WHICH WAS WHAT THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF
SHOWED. WILL NEED BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT/CONSISTENCY BEFORE
INTRODUCING RAIN CHANCES AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:25 PM PDT SATURDAY...A FEW MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTH AND EAST BAY AREAS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY END TONIGHT. PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG IS POSSIBLE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR RETURNS OVERNIGHT. CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
SUNDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR. LOCALLY IFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS GRADUALLY ENDING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 2:33 AM PDT SUNDAY...A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
WEST OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: W PI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
842 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
THE LATEST HRRR STILL SHOWS SOME PCPN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...AS A DISTURBANCE OVER
NORTHWESTERN CO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD. LTG STILL ONGOING SO
WL KEEP TSTMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE DIVIDE...FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH JUST RAIN SHOWERS FM THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE DROPPED TSTMS FM THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS
EVENING AS THOSE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED AND TSTMS NO LONGER ACTIVE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 721 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO DROP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AND THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE
IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PRODUCING TSTMS OVER NWRN CO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SUSPECT THIS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD BUT MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING SOME LOWER POPS TO THE URBAN CORRIDOR LATE
TONIGHT...THIS COULD BE THE FEATURE THAT COULD PRODUCE A TSTMS OR
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
COLORADO IS IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY WITH MAIN ELONGATED UPPER
TROF OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO SOUTH DAKOTA.
THERE IS WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES
INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THERE IS HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST
COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH FAVORED OROGRAPHIC FLOW
AND ALSO OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CYS RIDGE. COVERAGE WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED FURTHER EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY WITH A JET STREAK NOSING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WEAK UPWARD ASCENT ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COLORADO. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK
CONVERGENCE WITH FOCUS AREA ALONG PALMER DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FOCUSES HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA AND LESSER
AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS WYOMING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE LIFT ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK SUBSIDENCE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE...UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE AROUND DURING THE DAY TO CONTINUE LOW POPS IN MOST AREAS.
UPPER RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR AND MOISTURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES TO BRING A RENEWED...ALBEIT NOT
TERRIBLY HIGH...THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE
DECREASING EARLY THIS EVENING. TRENDED THE WINDS AT KDEN TO THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY ON THE EAST END OF THE
AIRPORT IS NEARLY STATIONARY...SO WL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHERLY WIND TREND THIS EVENING. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT SO MAY NEED TO ADD VCSH TO THE KBJC...KDEN AND KAPA AFTER
06Z...AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHWEST CO AT
THIS TIME MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST CO OVERNIGHT. STILL TSTMS WITH
THIS SYSTEM THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT PRIMARILY SHOWERS AS IT
CROSSES THE URBAN CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
241 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
...SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TOMORROW...
CURRENTLY...WIDELY SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER
THE AREA...AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
H5 CENTER IS OVER ERN WY...BUT SRN EXTENT OF THE LOW EXTENDS SWRD
INTO NM...AND A COUPLE DISTURBANCES IN THIS BROADER CIRCULATION WILL
MOVE THROUGH SE CO THROUGH MONDAY. STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN PRETTY
WEAK...AND DEW POINTS NR THE KS BORDER HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND THE
4O DEGREE MARK...SO SVR THREAT ATTM LOOKS LIMITED. WILL STILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO OVER THE SERN PLAINS...BUT THE
PROBABILITY LOOKS PRETTY LOW.
THIS FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVE. THE HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE BEEN A
BIT TOO SPARSE WITH COVERAGE OVERALL...SO HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER
RES NAM RUNS FOR POP COVERAGE IN THE SHORT TERM. STILL DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH QPF OVERALL. NEXT WAVE OF ACTIVITY WILL COME
LATER TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE IMPACT FROM
THIS WAVE SHOULD BE MAINLY WEST OF I-25...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS. MTS COULD SEE ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH MON
MORNING...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN
HIGH...GENERALLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. KCPW AND THE SAN JUANS LOOK TO
BENEFIT THE MOST FROM SNOWFALL THROUGH TOMORROW.
TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE
PLAINS...WHILE THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS MAY STAY IN THE 30S-40S ONCE
AGAIN DUE TO WIDESPREAD MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PRECIP. STORM
COVERAGE E OF THE MTS NOT LOOKING TERRIBLY GREAT TOMORROW...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR TS MON AFTERNOON...SO WILL
LEAVE VERY LOW POPS...AROUND 10 PERCENT...OVER THE ERN PLAINS FOR
NOW. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
LATE MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE IT LOOK GENERALLY DRY ACRS THE
FORECAST AREA...AHEAD OF A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE
WEATHER LATER TUE. TUE AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WL BE TRACKING
FROM SERN MT INTO NWRN SD. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPR TROF THAT WL
MOVE INTO CO...WL BRING PCPN TO THE CONTDVD BY LATE TUE
MORNING...THEN SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN MTNS AS WELL TUE
AFTERNOON. TOWARD TUE EVENING SOME ISOLD TO SCT PCPN SHOULD ALSO
SPREAD EAST OVER THE SERN CO PLAINS. MOST LOCATIONS ON TUE SHOULD
SEE TEMPS THAT ARE AROUND AVERAGE.
TUE NIGHT A FRONT WL DROP S THRU THE SERN PLAINS AS THE UPR TROF
MOVES ACRS CO. IT MAY BE UNSETTLED ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO
LINGER ACRS THE CENTRAL AND ERN MTNS AND THE SERN PLAINS...HOWEVER
BY WED MORNING MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS DRY. WED AFTERNOON A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA AND COULD HELP TRIGGER
SOME ISOLD PCPN ACRS THE MTNS AND ERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ON WED WL
BE COOLER AND WL BE BELOW AVERAGE.
THU LOOKS LIKE A DRIER DAY ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ISOLD PCPN MAINLY OVR THE MTNS AREA. TEMPS WL BE WARMER ON
THU AND SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR
THE AREA FOR FRI...WITH TEMPS WARMING A LITTLE MORE. FOR SAT AND
SUN THE UPR RIDGE GETS FLATTENED OVR THE AREA WITH SOME MSTR IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING OVR THE AREA ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MSTR OVR EASTERN AREAS AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS. WL PROBABLY SEE ISOLD TO SCT PCPN ACRS THE MTN AND PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE CHANCE OF SOME ISOLD TO SCT TS THROUGH
ABOUT 02-03Z THIS EVE. THEN...LATE TONIGHT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE CONTDVD AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...AND
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9-10000 FEET COULD SEE SOME MORE SNOW. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE SOME OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LOWER CIGS A BIT INVOF
KCOS TOMORROW MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK RELATIVELY
ISOLD FOR MON AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS INVOF ANY STORM ACTIVITY. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1113 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
UPDATED FORECAST/GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. AREA OF
SHOWERS NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE SW MTS...BUT WILL TAKE
A WHILE TO SPREAD EWD TO THE ERN RANGES AND PLAINS. HRRR THIS
AFTERNOON LOOKS PRETTY SPARSE WITH SHWR/TS COVERAGE...WHILE THE
12Z NAM MIGHT BE OVERDONE. HAVE MOVED BACK TIMING A BIT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO DECREASED OVERALL POPS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE STATE TODAY.
THIS WILL BRING UNSTABLE AIR TO THE REGION...RESULTING IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE...MAINLY
ACROSS KIOWA AND PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES...AFTER 2 PM. MODELS
SHOW THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS PUSHING INTO THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME...WITH LOW LEVEL MUCAPES RANGING FROM 600 TO 1700
J/KG. THE HIGHEST CAPES ARE INDICATED TO BE ACROSS EASTERN KIOWA
AND NORTHEASTERN PROWERS COUNTIES...AND THIS IS LIKELY THE AREA WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. STORMS OUT THAT WAY
COULD PRODUCE HAIL 1 INCH OR MORE IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH OR MORE. ELSEWHERE...CAPES WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE OF 400 TO
600 J/KG...WITH PRIMARY STORM THREATS OF LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO 1/2
INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.
IN THE MOUNTAINS...PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE
10000 FEET TODAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO NEAR 8000 FEET OR
POSSIBLY LOWER TONIGHT. 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ABOVE 10000 FEET DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE
BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS WILL
SWING A PIECE OF ENERGY AROUND ON THE WESTERN SIDE DOWN ACROSS
COLORADO ON MONDAY...AND THE RESULTING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO LIKELY CONVECTION OVER THE MTS...AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TUE WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH A
TEMPORARY RIDGE OVER THE STATE. A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING...THEN
DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE MTS IS STILL ON
TAP. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE A
MOVE LATE TUE...STARTING TO EJECT TO THE NE INTO CANADA ON WED. THIS
WILL PROMPT SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE E PLAINS LATE TUE INTO WED AS
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR A
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY TUE...WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 60S TO
NEAR 80F NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. WED WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 60S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL
BRING MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THU AND FRI WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S. THERE WILL BE A DAILY SHOT OF ISOLATED MT
CONVECTION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN FOR
SAT...INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE MTS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...AS
WELL AS COOLING TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
TS SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE CO PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE.
WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY VCTS...BUT PROBABILITY OF STORMS
AFFECTING THE TAF SITES IS LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THR5OUGH
LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-25...MON MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN PICK UP OVER THE MTS MON AFTERNOON.
ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
918 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
UPDATED FORECAST/GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. AREA OF
SHOWERS NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE SW MTS...BUT WILL TAKE
A WHILE TO SPREAD EWD TO THE ERN RANGES AND PLAINS. HRRR THIS
AFTERNOON LOOKS PRETTY SPARSE WITH SHWR/TS COVERAGE...WHILE THE
12Z NAM MIGHT BE OVERDONE. HAVE MOVED BACK TIMING A BIT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO DECREASED OVERALL POPS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE STATE TODAY.
THIS WILL BRING UNSTABLE AIR TO THE REGION...RESULTING IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE...MAINLY
ACROSS KIOWA AND PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES...AFTER 2 PM. MODELS
SHOW THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS PUSHING INTO THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME...WITH LOW LEVEL MUCAPES RANGING FROM 600 TO 1700
J/KG. THE HIGHEST CAPES ARE INDICATED TO BE ACROSS EASTERN KIOWA
AND NORTHEASTERN PROWERS COUNTIES...AND THIS IS LIKELY THE AREA WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. STORMS OUT THAT WAY
COULD PRODUCE HAIL 1 INCH OR MORE IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH OR MORE. ELSEWHERE...CAPES WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE OF 400 TO
600 J/KG...WITH PRIMARY STORM THREATS OF LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO 1/2
INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.
IN THE MOUNTAINS...PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE
10000 FEET TODAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO NEAR 8000 FEET OR
POSSIBLY LOWER TONIGHT. 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ABOVE 10000 FEET DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE
BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS WILL
SWING A PIECE OF ENERGY AROUND ON THE WESTERN SIDE DOWN ACROSS
COLORADO ON MONDAY...AND THE RESULTING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO LIKELY CONVECTION OVER THE MTS...AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TUE WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH A
TEMPORARY RIDGE OVER THE STATE. A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING...THEN
DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE MTS IS STILL ON
TAP. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE A
MOVE LATE TUE...STARTING TO EJECT TO THE NE INTO CANADA ON WED. THIS
WILL PROMPT SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE E PLAINS LATE TUE INTO WED AS
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR A
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY TUE...WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 60S TO
NEAR 80F NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. WED WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 60S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL
BRING MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THU AND FRI WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S. THERE WILL BE A DAILY SHOT OF ISOLATED MT
CONVECTION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN FOR
SAT...INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE MTS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...AS
WELL AS COOLING TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
LARGE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRAVERSE THE FLIGHT
AREA TODAY...BRINGING UNSTABLE AIR TO THE REGION RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. PRIMARY STORM THREATS FOR MOST STORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING...HAIL TO AROUND 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES AFTER ABOUT 20Z.
STORMS IN THIS AREA COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO 1 INCH OR MORE IN DIAMETER
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR MORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED TODAY AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN PRECIPITATION. FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...
GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AND UPDATES TO INCLUDE ACTIVITY PASSING
THROUGH THE TERMINAL SITES MAY BE REQUIRED.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1104 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON IN NRN EL PASO
COUNTY AND NRN TELLER COUNTY. DRIER AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE EAST
ACRS THE FAR SERN PLAINS...WITH DEW POINTS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER
40S AT 2 PM AT KLAA...BUT HAD DROPPED TO 30 BY 230 PM...AND WAS DOWN
TO 7 AT KLHX. THE BOUNDARY OUT EAST IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST
BUT IN THE MEANTIME STORMS ARE FIRING ALONG THIS DRY LINE. IT IS
ALSO STILL RELATIVELY MOIST OVR EL PASO COUNTY WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 40S. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS THE DRY LINE
SHIFTING EAST INTO KS BY AROUND 23Z...WITH CONVECTION ENDING OVR THE
FAR SERN PLAINS. IT ALSO HAS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS KICKING IN OVR EL
PASO COUNTY BETWEEN 22Z AND 23Z AND THUS BRINGING DRIER AIR IN AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH PCPN CHANCES ENDING. UNTIL THE LOWER LEVELS
DRY OUT OVR EL PASO AND TELLER COUNTIES...AND IN LOCATIONS NEAR THE
KS BORDER...THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.
ACRS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE SHOULD BE SOME ISOLD TO SCT
EVENING TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS
OF 40-50 PM AND SOME ISOLD SMALL HAIL.
BY 06Z THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA. OVERNIGHT AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO LIE
FROM THE NRN CO BORDER TO WRN AZ. THEN DURING THE DAY SUN...A
SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NM AND THEN THE SERN CORNER
OF CO IN THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE MAIN UPR LOW CENTER SITS IN SERN
WY. THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY ACRS THE FORECAST AREA THRU ABOUT
MIDMORNING SUN...BUT THEN BY LATE MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE SOME SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTN AND NEARBY TRRN.
THEN IN THE AFTERNOON THERE WL BE ENOUGH MSTR AND INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLD STORMS TO SPREAD ACRS THE SERN PLAINS. NR THE KS BORDER CAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 1000-1200 J/KG...WITH 40 KTS OF SHEAR IN
THE 0-6KM LAYER AND LI/S OF AROUND -6. THUS THERE COULD BE A THREAT
OF A SEVERE STORM OR TWO.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS WILL DIMINISH SUN NIGHT...AS THE FIRST
UPPER LOW MOVES EWD INTO NE. MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING OVER THE MTN AREAS...AND COVERAGE
OVER THE CONTDVD WILL INCREASE ON MON MORNING. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ON MONDAY AS A
WEAK TRAILING DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SNOW ACCUMS THROUGH
MON WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...TWO TO FOUR INCHES...WITH A FEW
SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE. SEE
NO NEED FOR HIGHLITES AT THIS TIME.
AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE TUE MORNING AS A TRANSITORY SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH...TUE AFTERNOON MAY SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THE PLAINS AS A SECOND SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES
EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH E CO.
WEAK UPSLOPE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTS. WED SHOULD
BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA. THE ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN PROGGING MUCH COLDER AIR ON
WED...HAS BACKED OFF AND NOW JOINS THE GFS IN PROGGING H7 TEMPS
MORE IN THE 0 TO MINUS 2 RANGE WED MORNING...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
A SNOW LEVEL IN THE 7000 FOOT RANGE. QPF DOES NOT LOOK OVERLYIMPRESSIVE.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE MAY
AFFECT THE KCOS AND KALS TERMINALS AFTER 20-21Z. HAVE INTRODUCED
VCTS INTO BOTH TERMINAL FORECASTS. CIGS WILL REMAIN HIGH BASED
AND VFR BUT WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR THESE HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE AT
TIMES...PARTICULARLY AT KCOS. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1048 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE 10 AM
UPDATE.
MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS RAPIDLY MOVING EAST AND WILL CLEAR MONTAUK BY
16Z. FRONT ITSELF IS NOW INTO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY WITH NY STATE
MESONET IN OTISVILLE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 1425Z. DESPITE
RAP AND HRRR CONTINUING TO SUGGEST SHOWER DEVELOP DUE TO SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE A DRY FROPA WITH LITTLE, IF
ANY INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE NY METRO IS A NOW TIMED FOR JUST BEFORE
17Z.
MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND A GUSTY NW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. A WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH TO BE REALIZED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
INLAND TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT INTO SE CANADA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. HEIGHTS RISE ON TUESDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND
THE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE HELD AT BAY WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS WARM FRONT WELL
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST ON TUESDAY SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS. THIS
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT. WEAKER FLOW OVER THE
REGION WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...SO HIGHS MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST
HIGHS ARE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TREND IN THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TOWARDS SUPPRESSION OF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. STILL HAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC POPS FOCUSED
TOWARD THE SW HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HAVE GONE A LITTLE
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LIKELY END UP DRY LIKE WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IN PLACE. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND SPOTS UNAFFECTED BY A S-SE WIND FLOW
OF THE WATERS.
A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES AND COULD BRING SHOWERS TO AT
LEAST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY ON SATURDAY...BUT MIGHT EVENTUALLY
NEED TO INCLUDE OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 16Z AND
17Z FOR THE NYC TERMINALS. FOR LONG ISLAND AND S. CT...IFR
CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTION AVERAGES JUST RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC FOR KJFK/KLGA/KEWR. WINDS INCREASE RAPIDLY WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE MID 3O KT RANGE LIKELY BETWEEN 18Z TO 22Z
FOR NYC/NJ METRO TERMINALS.
WINDS AND GUSTS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH WSW WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KT TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS GUSTS OF 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY.
ISOLATED 30 KT GUSTS FOR NYC/NJ METRO TERMINALS.
.TUE-THU...GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN REMAINS JUST TO
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BEHIND THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. OCEAN SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR 5 FT AS
WELL. THE SCA CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS FROM NOON UNTIL 6 PM.
WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY BE A
BIT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE ON THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET...WHERE 5
FT SEAS LIKELY LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH AN INCREASING SW FLOW. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD OTHERWISE BE TRANQUIL WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SWELL AND A LACK OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONG
WINDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN ON FRIDAY MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES...THOUGH...AT LEAST AT THIS TIME...HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH SPRING TIDES CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE...BUT RESIDUAL LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL
EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU AND POSSIBLE IN
QUEENS. WATER LEVELS SHOULD STAY BELOW MINOR FLOOD LEVELS
ELSEWHERE WITH OFFSHORE WINDS.
WATER LEVELS SHOULD FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW MINOR LEVELS MONDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC/DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
914 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS RAPIDLY MOVING EAST AND WILL CLEAR MONTAUK BY
16Z. FRONT ITSELF IS STILL BACK IN THE CATSKILLS AND NEARING
MONTICELLO, NY AS OF 13Z. VERY LITTLE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
ITSELF...PERHAPS A SPRINKLE.
LATEST RAP AND HRRR BOTH DEVELOP SHOWERS AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
NY METRO AROUND 15Z. I SEE LITTLE, IF ANY INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THIS AND WILL FORECAST A DRY FROPA BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
IMPROVEMENTS IN VISIBILITIES OCCURRING FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHEAST CT AS PCPN MOVES IN.
MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND AN INCREASINGLY GUSTY NW FLOW. A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH TO BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
INLAND TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT INTO SE CANADA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. HEIGHTS RISE ON TUESDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND
THE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE HELD AT BAY WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS WARM FRONT WELL
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST ON TUESDAY SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS. THIS
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT. WEAKER FLOW OVER THE
REGION WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...SO HIGHS MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST
HIGHS ARE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TREND IN THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TOWARDS SUPPRESSION OF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. STILL HAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC POPS FOCUSED
TOWARD THE SW HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HAVE GONE A LITTLE
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LIKELY END UP DRY LIKE WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IN PLACE. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND SPOTS UNAFFECTED BY A S-SE WIND FLOW
OF THE WATERS.
A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES AND COULD BRING SHOWERS TO AT
LEAST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY ON SATURDAY...BUT MIGHT EVENTUALLY
NEED TO INCLUDE OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES. VFR CONDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS ON LONG ISLAND AND S. CT MAY PERSIST
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTION AVERAGES JUST RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC FOR KJFK/KLGA/KEWR. WINDS INCREASE RAPIDLY WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE MID 3O KT RANGE LIKELY BETWEEN 18Z TO 22Z
FOR NYC/NJ METRO TERMINALS.
WINDS AND GUSTS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH WSW WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KT TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS GUSTS OF 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY.
ISOLATED 30 KT GUSTS FOR NYC/NJ METRO TERMINALS.
.TUE-THU...GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN REMAINS JUST TO
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WATERS UNTIL 15Z...THOUGH
IMPROVEMENT OCCURRING RAPIDLY AS PCPN MOVES ACROSS.
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. OCEAN SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR 5 FT AS WELL.
THE SCA CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS FROM NOON UNTIL 6 PM.
WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY BE A
BIT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE ON THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET...WHERE 5
FT SEAS LIKELY LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH AN INCREASING SW FLOW. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD OTHERWISE BE TRANQUIL WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SWELL AND A LACK OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONG
WINDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL AFTER THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN
ON FRIDAY MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...THOUGH...AT LEAST AT THIS
TIME...HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR TONIGHT...TIDES AND SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT
RESIDUAL LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL EXPECTED ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU AND POSSIBLE IN QUEENS. WATER
LEVELS SHOULD STAY BELOW MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ELSEWHERE WITH
OFFSHORE WINDS.
WATER LEVELS SHOULD FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW MINOR LEVELS MONDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-353-355.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340-
345-350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC/DS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
722 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND MILDER
WEATHER. MUCH OF THIS WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEXT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
WATCHING PRECIP SHIELD MOVE OUT OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND BEGIN TO
IMPACT BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...TIMING ON RECENT
HRRR/RAP/WRF MODELS WAS BEST...AND A LITTLE SLOWER THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED POPS/WX TOWARD THIS
THINKING.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE PERSIST EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. S/SW
FLOW STARTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N.
UNORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL NY/PA AND LINES UP WELL WITH HRRR GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS
FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR TIMING. THESE SHOWERS WILL REACH WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND 8-10 AM BEFORE REACHING E COAST 11 AM TO NOON. CERTAINLY
NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT TODAY AS SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY LAST 2-3
HOURS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. BETTER LIFT PASSES N OF OUR AREA WHICH
IS WHERE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE.
ONCE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE OFFSHORE...CLEARING WORKS
IN AS DRIER AIR FOLLOWS ON GUSTY W WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH 60S
ACROSS MOST OF AREA EXCEPT 50S NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHICH
WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A FEW MID
OR HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. AS WINDS DIMINISH...SETUP FAVORS GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF REGION. PARTS OF W MA WILL PROBABLY DROP
INTO MID 30S BUT FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM DOES NOT BEGIN IN THESE
LOCATIONS UNTIL MAY 11. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE SOME OF USUAL COLD
SPOTS IN E MA REACH MID 30S AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE
READINGS BEING WIDESPREAD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY FROST
ADVISORIES.
SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MON MORNING...BUT WITH
RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS ONLY EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH IT.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN MA BUT FOCUS FOR
ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE FARTHER N WHERE BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE RESIDE. SUNSHINE AND W FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS WELL INTO
60S IF NOT TO AROUND 70 ACROSS PARTS OF CT...RI AND E MA.
CERTAINLY A WELCOME CHANGE AFTER THE RAINY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MAINLY DRY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY
* TEMPS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL BY WED/THU
* MORE WET WEATHER POSSIBLE FRI AND AGAIN SAT
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BLOCKED AND AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES FROM PACIFIC COAST
TO WRN ATLANTIC...BOOKENDED ON EACH SIDE BY STRONG RIDGING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FALL IN LINE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL LIE
MAINLY OVER THE MARITIMES AND ATLANTIC CANADA. AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER NOTED...THIS PROVIDES DRY NW AND CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND...SUPPRESSING MEAN STORM TRACK FAR ENOUGH TO THE S TO
BE OF LITTLE IMPACT ON SRN NEW ENGLAND. BY LATE WEEK HOWEVER...A
BREAKDOWN IN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE IS EXPECTED AS A PHASES VORT MAX
FROM THE NW TERRITORIES AND SW CONUS BEGINS TO IMPACT THE NE.
TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF MORE UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET WX IS
ANTICIPATED. WITH MODELS FINALLY SHOWING REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT
HERE...AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE MID-TERM...FEEL A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CAN
BE USED.
DETAILS...
MON NIGHT...
SETUP FOR A CHILLY MAY NIGHT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES BEHIND WEAK
TROF LATE IN THE DAY. PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AS WELL WHICH COULD
PROVIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY TUE MORNING WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE 30S. LOW RISK FOR SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT.
TUE THROUGH THU...
MAINLY DRY PERIOD AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION
AND SUPPRESSES STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDER TO THE S. COLUMN DRY
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY SOME DIURNAL CU/CI
EXPECTED. ALSO EXPECT FULL MIXING TO H85 WHERE TEMPS WILL RISE
FROM +4C ON TUE...TO +9C ON THU. THIS SUGGESTS WARMEST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S ON TUE...AND INTO THE 70S BY THU. WEAK PRES GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...KEEPING NEAR SHORE
LOCATIONS COOLER.
FRI...
THE FIRST IMPACT FROM DEVELOPING UPSTREAM CUTOFF LOW PRES WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRI. COMBINATION OF INCREASING PWATS
NEAR 1.0 INCHES WITH K-VALUES NEAR 30 SUGGEST WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT LOOKS
MAINLY LIKE A LATER-DAY EVENT. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LOW AT
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD THE FRONT PASS LATER IN THE DAY THIS COULD
CHANGE.
SAT AND SUN...
SECONDARY LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ACROSS THE NE AS CUTOFF
AND ATTENDANT TROF TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
CERTAINTY IN TIMING WILL GET BETTER WITH TIME...BUT FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE WITH AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND AT TIMES
WITH TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM...THROUGH MON...
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING.
MIX OF IFR/MVFR THIS MORNING GIVES WAY TO WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH
RA FROM 13Z-18Z FROM W TO E. BETWEEN 18Z-21Z EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR FROM W TO E. AS TRANSITION TO VFR OCCURS...WINDS SHIFT TO THE
W WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT AT TIMES.
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN WITH 20-30
KT GUSTS ON MON.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF CIGS MAY BE A BIT OFF.
COULD OCCUR 2-3 HOURS FASTER.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF CIGS MAY BE A BIT OFF.
COULD OCCUR 2-3 HOURS FASTER.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S/SW WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING W WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...
GUSTING TO 25 KT ON E MA WATERS AS WELL AS BOS HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE AREAS.
W WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT MAY APPROACH 25 KT AGAIN MON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED ON OUTER WATERS AND S COASTAL
SOUNDS THRU TONIGHT MAINLY DUE TO SEAS BUT ALSO FOR MARGINAL 25
KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND COLD FRONT. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO MON AS WELL.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WX.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ230-236-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...DOODY/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/JWD
MARINE...DOODY/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
332 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND MILDER
WEATHER. MUCH OF THIS WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEXT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE PERSIST EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. S/SW
FLOW STARTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N.
UNORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL NY/PA AND LINES UP WELL WITH HRRR GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS
FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR TIMING. THESE SHOWERS WILL REACH WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND 8-10 AM BEFORE REACHING E COAST 11 AM TO NOON. CERTAINLY
NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT TODAY AS SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY LAST 2-3
HOURS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. BETTER LIFT PASSES N OF OUR AREA WHICH
IS WHERE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE.
ONCE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE OFFSHORE...CLEARING WORKS
IN AS DRIER AIR FOLLOWS ON GUSTY W WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH 60S
ACROSS MOST OF AREA EXCEPT 50S NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHICH
WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A FEW MID
OR HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. AS WINDS DIMINISH...SETUP FAVORS GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF REGION. PARTS OF W MA WILL PROBABLY DROP
INTO MID 30S BUT FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM DOES NOT BEGIN IN THESE
LOCATIONS UNTIL MAY 11. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE SOME OF USUAL COLD
SPOTS IN E MA REACH MID 30S AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE
READINGS BEING WIDESPREAD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY FROST
ADVISORIES.
SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MON MORNING...BUT WITH
RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS ONLY EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH IT.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN MA BUT FOCUS FOR
ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE FARTHER N WHERE BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE RESIDE. SUNSHINE AND W FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS WELL INTO
60S IF NOT TO AROUND 70 ACROSS PARTS OF CT...RI AND E MA.
CERTAINLY A WELCOME CHANGE AFTER THE RAINY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MAINLY DRY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY
* TEMPS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL BY WED/THU
* MORE WET WEATHER POSSIBLE FRI AND AGAIN SAT
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BLOCKED AND AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES FROM PACIFIC COAST
TO WRN ATLANTIC...BOOKENDED ON EACH SIDE BY STRONG RIDGING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FALL IN LINE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL LIE
MAINLY OVER THE MARITIMES AND ATLANTIC CANADA. AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER NOTED...THIS PROVIDES DRY NW AND CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND...SUPPRESSING MEAN STORM TRACK FAR ENOUGH TO THE S TO
BE OF LITTLE IMPACT ON SRN NEW ENGLAND. BY LATE WEEK HOWEVER...A
BREAKDOWN IN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE IS EXPECTED AS A PHASES VORT MAX
FROM THE NW TERRITORIES AND SW CONUS BEGINS TO IMPACT THE NE.
TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF MORE UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET WX IS
ANTICIPATED. WITH MODELS FINALLY SHOWING REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT
HERE...AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE MID-TERM...FEEL A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CAN
BE USED.
DETAILS...
MON NIGHT...
SETUP FOR A CHILLY MAY NIGHT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES BEHIND WEAK
TROF LATE IN THE DAY. PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AS WELL WHICH COULD
PROVIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY TUE MORNING WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE 30S. LOW RISK FOR SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT.
TUE THROUGH THU...
MAINLY DRY PERIOD AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION
AND SUPPRESSES STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDER TO THE S. COLUMN DRY
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY SOME DIURNAL CU/CI
EXPECTED. ALSO EXPECT FULL MIXING TO H85 WHERE TEMPS WILL RISE
FROM +4C ON TUE...TO +9C ON THU. THIS SUGGESTS WARMEST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S ON TUE...AND INTO THE 70S BY THU. WEAK PRES GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...KEEPING NEAR SHORE
LOCATIONS COOLER.
FRI...
THE FIRST IMPACT FROM DEVELOPING UPSTREAM CUTOFF LOW PRES WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRI. COMBINATION OF INCREASING PWATS
NEAR 1.0 INCHES WITH K-VALUES NEAR 30 SUGGEST WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT LOOKS
MAINLY LIKE A LATER-DAY EVENT. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LOW AT
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD THE FRONT PASS LATER IN THE DAY THIS COULD
CHANGE.
SAT AND SUN...
SECONDARY LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ACROSS THE NE AS CUTOFF
AND ATTENDANT TROF TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
CERTAINTY IN TIMING WILL GET BETTER WITH TIME...BUT FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE WITH AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND AT TIMES
WITH TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
330 AM UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IFR/LIFR IN FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST AND
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER INLAND MVFR CIGS PREVAIL WITH AREAS
OF IFR CIGS.
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD LIFT AS BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSES REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABLY NO HIGHER THAN MVFR.
SHOULD SEE RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR 18Z-21Z FROM W TO E AS COLD
FRONT CROSSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO W. GUSTS TO 25KT EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.
VFR WITH DIMINISHING W WINDS SUN NIGHT.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF CIGS LIFTING THIS
MORNING MAY BE TOO SLOW. COULD OCCUR 2-3 HOURS FASTER.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF CIGS LIFTING LATER THIS
MORNING MAY BE TOO SLOW. COULD OCCUR 2-3 HOURS FASTER.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S/SW WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING W WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...
GUSTING TO 25 KT ON E MA WATERS AS WELL AS BOS HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE AREAS.
W WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT MAY APPROACH 25 KT AGAIN MON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED ON OUTER WATERS AND S COASTAL
SOUNDS THRU TONIGHT MAINLY DUE TO SEAS BUT ALSO FOR MARGINAL 25
KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND COLD FRONT. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO MON AS WELL.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WX.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ230-236-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/JWD
MARINE...DOODY/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
329 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND MILDER
WEATHER. MUCH OF THIS WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEXT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE PERSIST EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. S/SW
FLOW STARTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N.
UNORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL NY/PA AND LINES UP WELL WITH HRRR GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS
FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR TIMING. THESE SHOWERS WILL REACH WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND 8-10 AM BEFORE REACHING E COAST 11 AM TO NOON. CERTAINLY
NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT TODAY AS SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY LAST 2-3
HOURS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. BETTER LIFT PASSES N OF OUR AREA WHICH
IS WHERE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE.
ONCE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE OFFSHORE...CLEARING WORKS
IN AS DRIER AIR FOLLOWS ON GUSTY W WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH 60S
ACROSS MOST OF AREA EXCEPT 50S NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHICH
WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A FEW MID
OR HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. AS WINDS DIMINISH...SETUP FAVORS GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF REGION. PARTS OF W MA WILL PROBABLY DROP
INTO MID 30S BUT FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM DOES NOT BEGIN IN THESE
LOCATIONS UNTIL MAY 11. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE SOME OF USUAL COLD
SPOTS IN E MA REACH MID 30S AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE
READINGS BEING WIDESPREAD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY FROST
ADVISORIES.
SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MON MORNING...BUT WITH
RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS ONLY EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH IT.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN MA BUT FOCUS FOR
ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE FARTHER N WHERE BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE RESIDE. SUNSHINE AND W FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS WELL INTO
60S IF NOT TO AROUND 70 ACROSS PARTS OF CT...RI AND E MA.
CERTAINLY A WELCOME CHANGE AFTER THE RAINY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MAINLY DRY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY
* SEASONABLE TEMPS AND BREEZY MON THEN TEMPS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
BY WED/THU
* MORE WET WEATHER POSSIBLE FRI AND AGAIN SAT
OVERVIEW...
HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH STRONG RIDGES IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC TO ICELAND AND OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA. HOWEVER...CLOSED VORTEX WILL BE OVER THE
MARITIMES WHICH OFFERS A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DURING MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AND WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH CONFLUENT FLOW OVER NEW ENG
WHICH SHOULD KEEP FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCD MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH
TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. LATEST GFS HAS COME AROUND TO ECMWF/EPS AND GGEM
KEEPING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH. WHILE THIS VORTEX WILL BE UNABLE TO
COMPLETELY ESCAPE THE MARITIMES AND ATLANTIC CANADA DUE TO
DOWNSTREAM BLOCK IT DOES SHIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALLOWING THE GT LAKES RIDGE TO MOVE INTO THE
NEW ENG. SO WE ARE LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY WEEK THROUGH THU WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS TO START...THEN WARMING ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED/THU.
HOWEVER...RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF AS NEXT MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES
NEXT FRI/SAT WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH...AND WHILE
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE SFC PATTERN PLAYS OUT IT APPEARS
THAT A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS POSSIBLE NEXT FRI/SAT.
DETAILS...
TUE THROUGH THU... MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR DRY WEATHER AS HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL...KEEPING FRONTAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT ON TUE BUT THIS
WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE COLUMN REMAINS
RATHER DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD LEADING TO MOSUNNY SKIES. MODERATING
TREND IN TEMPS EXPECTED AS 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM AROUND 4C
TUE TO NEAR 10C THU. MAXES SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES ON TUE
IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...A FEW DEGREES WARMER WED AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S BY THU. BUT SEABREEZES MAY DEVELOP WED/THU
KEEPING IT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.
FRI AND SAT...
MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW COULD AFFECT SNE FRI AND
SAT. UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS/TIMING BUT IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS FRI AND POSSIBLY SAT AS WELL ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
330 AM UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IFR/LIFR IN FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST AND
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER INLAND MVFR CIGS PREVAIL WITH AREAS
OF IFR CIGS.
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD LIFT AS BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSES REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABLY NO HIGHER THAN MVFR.
SHOULD SEE RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR 18Z-21Z FROM W TO E AS COLD
FRONT CROSSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO W. GUSTS TO 25KT EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.
VFR WITH DIMINISHING W WINDS SUN NIGHT.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF CIGS LIFTING THIS
MORNING MAY BE TOO SLOW. COULD OCCUR 2-3 HOURS FASTER.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF CIGS LIFTING LATER THIS
MORNING MAY BE TOO SLOW. COULD OCCUR 2-3 HOURS FASTER.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MON...VFR CIGS. LOW PROB FOR MVFR AND BRIEF SHOWER NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE. BREEZY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT.
TUE THROUGH THU...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S/SW WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING W WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...
GUSTING TO 25 KT ON E MA WATERS AS WELL AS BOS HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE AREAS.
W WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT MAY APPROACH 25 KT AGAIN MON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED ON OUTER WATERS AND S COASTAL
SOUNDS THRU TONIGHT MAINLY DUE TO SEAS BUT ALSO FOR MARGINAL 25
KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND COLD FRONT. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO MON AS WELL.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MON...EXPECT WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT DEVELOPING OVER NEARSHORE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY BOS HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY WHERE BEST
MIXING. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. SUB SCA WINDS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS BUT HAZARDOUS SEAS AOA 5 FT EXPECTED.
TUE THROUGH THU...QUIET BOATING WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SCA. WESTERLY WINDS TUE...THEN WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY
ONSHORE WED AND POSSIBLY THU AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ230-236-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/JWD
MARINE...DOODY/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
325 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING, AND STALL
SOUTH OF OUR AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO MOVES INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL MAKE ITS
WAY NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL PA NOW, AND IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS
EAST. EXPECT IT TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION BY LATE THIS MORNING. DID
NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE POPS; THOUGH RADAR TRENDS SHOW LIMITED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT, THE HRRR SUGGESTS COVERAGE
COULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OUR REGION.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SHOULD HAVE A DRY AND BREEZY DAY ON
TAP AND (FOR A CHANGE) COULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
CONTINUED DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TRENDED LOW
TEMPS DOWN TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH GUIDANCE. GIVEN DRY AIR, RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD HAVE A GOOD SET UP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EVEN SO, EXPECT TEMPS, EVEN IN THE POCONOS TO
STAY UP ENOUGH TO NEGATE ANY FROST THREAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THRU
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID-LEVEL FLOW FEATURES A
CLOSED LOW OVER ATLANTIC CANADA, WHILE THE OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE
CENTRAL US SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST. THIS MAINTAINS A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME OVER THE CONUS, CHARACTERIZED BY A NORTHERN STREAM HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE NEAR HUDSON`S BAY, WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
UNDERCUTS THIS FEATURE EN ROUTE TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE NORTHEAST THU, WITH OUR
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FRI INTO SAT.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETTING UP OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC IN THE TUE THRU THU TIME FRAME.
THE CONFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL MAINTAIN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND, WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY INITIATES SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
LEADING TO OVERRUNNING PRECIP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THE MODEL
TREND HAS BEEN TO SUPPRESS THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, AND
THUS THE PRECIPITATION AS WELL. THE GFS IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND NAM, WHICH ARE NORTH AND SOUTH, RESPECTIVELY.
FAIR WEATHER AND BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH WEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TUE THRU THU
WILL BE SOUTH OF I-195, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA. OVERALL, THE PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. WITH THE REGION NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY, ANOTHER PROLONGED ALBEIT LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO SETUP DURING THIS PERIOD. FORTUNATELY, AS THIS FLOW
RAMPS UP, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE RAMPING DOWN. AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTENS, FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHTS.
WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION IN DELMARVA BOTH
WED AND THU, THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
LATER THIS WEEK, AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WEAKENS ACROSS THE
REGION FRI AND IS FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE SAT. THE POSSIBILITY OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP IS DURING THIS TIME FRAME, AS THE MORE
SUPPRESSED NATURE OF THE STALLED MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
LIMIT PRECIP. OVERALL, DAYTIME MAXES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, BUT WARMER
NIGHTTIME MINS THANKS TO CLOUD COVER SHOULD LEAD TO AVERAGE TEMPS
AOA NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE SLOWED THEIR PROGRESSION EAST. LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR HAVE OCCURRED AT KPHL, KTTN, KPNE, KMIV,
AND KMIV. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY AT
THESE TERMINALS UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH (THOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A BRIEF
REDUCTION TO MVFR IF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT MOVE OVER A TAF
SITE), EXPECT THE TAF SITES TO QUICKLY GO TO VFR AND SEE A SHIFT TO
WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT THE VFR CONDITIONS TO THEN
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH 21Z, BUT SHOULD BE NEAR
OR BELOW 10KT BY 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
WED NIGHT THRU THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA AND FOG, ESPECIALLY
ILG, MIV, AND ACY.
&&
.MARINE...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE. THE MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 8 AM EDT.
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS, PRIMARILY FOR WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KT TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
OVER THE WATERS. IT MAY BE A CASE WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
NEAR SHORE, WHILE FURTHER OFF SHORE ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS,
WIND GUSTS MAY BE AT OR BELOW 25 KT.
WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON APPROACH
SCA CRITERIA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. OTHERWISE, SUB SCA
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO THURSDAY. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR TODAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20
TO 30 PERCENT FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION, WESTERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST 20-30 MPH, PRIMARILY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH AS WET AS CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RECENTLY, NO
ENHANCED FIRE PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED AND WATER LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL.
THOUGH HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT TWO
HIGH TIDE CYCLES...LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450>453.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/JOHNSON
MARINE...FRANCK/JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
905 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PUSHING EWD WITH A PLUME OF
MOISTURE...MOSTLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS MOVING INTO THE SERN
U.S. MODELS PUSH THIS TROUGH FURTHER EWD INTO TUE...WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...WITH SFC HIGH WELL E
IN THE ATLC LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE S AND
SE...WITH OCNL SW COMPONENT. RAP AND NAM SHOW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SFC WILL BE UP AROUND 20 KT TONIGHT AND SO WITH ENHANCED BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING NO FOG IS EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER THAN MONDAY MORNING DUE TO HIGHER WINDS AND SOME MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...STILL PLEASANTLY COOLING IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S. MINOR TWEAKS TO THE LOWS BUT KEPT THEM SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OWING TO CIRRUS CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND A MID LEVEL DECK BETWEEN 15-20 KFT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL. SELY FLOW WILL TURN TO THE S
OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE. MORE SCT CUMULUS EXPECTED TUE BASED ON
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND VFR CIGS EXPECTED. E COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
MOVE BY THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...BREEZY SSE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME S 10-15 KT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUE. WINDS BECOME SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AT
SUNRISE. SEAS 2-4 FT BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 3-5 FT. CURRENT FORECAST
ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO A LOW END MODERATE RISK THROUGH TUE WITH
SURF OCNL NEAR 2 FT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 63 86 65 90 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 69 80 69 84 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 63 86 63 87 / 0 0 10 10
SGJ 66 81 69 83 / 0 0 10 10
GNV 61 86 62 89 / 0 0 0 10
OCF 62 85 64 88 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/PETERSON/GUILLET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
809 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND HR RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD REGION OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA THIS EVENING. SHARP NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING IS
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND IS RESULTING IN PLENTY OF INCLEMENT
WEATHER AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS
ENERGY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND ONLY HAVE THE
IMPACT OF SLIGHTLY DE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR HEADS
INTO TUESDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST
OVER THE REGION FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND THIS WILL NOT CHANGE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY BENIGN THROUGH TUESDAY GIVEN THE
OVERALL LACK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE VERY DRY MID-LEVELS OF
THE TROP. THE SEA-BREEZE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW MORE CUMULUS
CLOUDS ON TUESDAY THAN IT DID MONDAY...BUT THESE SHOULD BE SHALLOW
AND TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE DRY LAYER STARTING AROUND 850-825MB.
IF WE CAN MIX OUT TO 6KFT OR HIGHER ON TUESDAY...THEN WE MIGHT
MIX UP INTO THIS DRY LAYER...AND THE CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 21Z. WE SHALL SEE.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S...WITH
WARMER READINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY AND COASTAL
LEE/CHARLOTTE COUNTIES DUE TO THE LIGHT OVERNIGHT FLOW OFF THE
WATERS OF TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY RISE WELL INTO THE 80S MOST SPOTS...WITH TEMPS FLIRTING
WITH 90 DOWN TOWARD PUNTA GORDA AND FORT MYERS. LOOK FOR WINDS TO
SHIFT ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST AFTER 1PM AS THE SEA-BREEZE TAKES
SHAPE.
&&
.AVIATION (10/00Z THROUGH 11/00Z)... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT ONSHORE
AT MOST SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS LOW. SEA-
BREEZES WILL TURN THE WINDS ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 69 85 71 87 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 66 88 69 89 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 67 85 68 88 / 0 0 10 10
SRQ 67 82 68 85 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 62 85 63 87 / 0 0 10 10
SPG 70 84 72 85 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1016 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR INDICATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ALOFT OVER PARTS OF THE UPSTATE BUT WITH DRIER AIR TO THE
EAST...EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. LATEST
SPC HRRR STILL ALSO SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IN OUR AREA FOR
REST OF THE NIGHT SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW. SURFACE RIDGING SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT MOISTURE. THERE WILL
BE UPPER CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE RIDGE. FOLLOWED THE HIGHER LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON
RECENT VERIFICATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DO INDICATE A MOISTURE
INCREASE WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION CLOSER TO A
FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION SUPPORTED BY
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS POP. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
THE MODELS DEPICT A LEE-SIDE OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAD POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS WAS FASTER
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF SHOWING MOISTURE BECOME MORE SHALLOW BEHIND
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS
HAD POPS 40 TO 50 PERCENT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED THE FRONT
BECOMING DIFFUSE AND LINGERING NEAR THE COAST WITH A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE MODELS INDICATED LITTLE MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GENERAL WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...THE FOG THREAT SHOULD BE
QUITE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST BY MORNING...BUT THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS TO CEILINGS AND HAVE THUS LEFT MENTION
OF LOW CEILINGS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS...AS WELL AS AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
300 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
300 PM...CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN MO WILL CONTINUE
LIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT LIKELY ARRIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
CWA LATE THIS EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THERE HAS APPEARED TO BE A
SHARP CUT OFF TO THIS PRECIP THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE HOW FAR
NORTH THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND BY MORNING. DIDN/T MAKE MANY CHANGES
WITH LIKELY POPS EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY RFD/JOT/RZL. STILL APPEARS
THERE MAY BE A LULL FROM MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE WARM FRONT BEGINS LIFTING NORTH ACCOMPANIED BY
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE. BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND DURATION
OF ANY LULL AND FOR THAT REASON MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS UNTIL
LATER AFTERNOON WHEN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MONDAY EVENING WITH A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA FOR DAY2. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
NO CHANGE TO PWATS IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. MODEL QPF SHOWS THE
HEAVIEST AXIS FROM WEST/NORTHWEST IL BACK INTO PARTS OF IOWA.
TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY END UP SIMILAR TO MONDAY...DIFFICULT
TO SEE MUCH WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
SO PERHAPS A LULL MIDDAY BUT WITH SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON NOW THAT THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPS MAY QUICKLY DROP THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLEAR SKIES...BUT
SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SPREAD NORTH. WITH THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...TEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S WITH MAV SUGGESTING LOW/MID 50S...THUS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HIGHS MONDAY. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S
TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS AT THE LAKE WITH EASTERLY FLOW. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
300 PM...ANY ACTIVITY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS TO END
WITH POSSIBLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. IF
WEDNESDAY PANS OUT DRY WITH SOME PARTIAL SUN...IT WILL LIKELY BE
QUITE WARM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT/LOW. GUIDANCE
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE LAKE WITH EITHER
A LAKE BREEZE OR AN EASTERLY GRADIENT DEVELOPING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THEN POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DRY PERIOD DOES NOW APPEAR TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THURSDAY POSSIBLY BECOMING BREEZY/WINDY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ECMWF/GFS HAVE
BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS AND NOW SHOWING -2C TO -4C
AT 850MB BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH VERY SLOWLY MODERATES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE IMPORTANT BUT LOWS
IN AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 30S SEEM POSSIBLE AND THIS COULD RESULT
IN SOME FROST. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
CONCERNS:
- TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
- TIMING OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
- THUNDER POTENTIAL LATER MONDAY
A LAKE BREEZE CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW INLAND PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE
THROUGH ORD/MDW AROUND 1930Z...POSSIBLY A BIT LATER AT MDW AS IT
IS NOT MOVING AS QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH. SPEEDS WITH THE LAKE
BREEZE HAVE LARGELY BEEN 8 KT OR LESS...AND NO REASON THAT THIS
WOULD INCREASE OTHER THAN RIGHT WITH THE LAKE BREEZE PASSAGE.
AFTER THE LAKE BREEZE EXPECT WINDS TO SETTLE TO A LIGHTER SE
THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE FIRST BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. MOISTURE IS WEAKER WITH THIS WAVE...PARTICULARLY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT FORCING SEEMS DECENT ENOUGH TO CARRY A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER SHRA. CARRIED AN EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE MORNING
WHICH MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AND NEED SOME DETAIL REFINEMENT BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN VFR. BETTER LOW LEVEL SATURATION
OCCURS IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD WHERE FORCING IS WEAKER AND SUPPORT DRIER TIMES
BEFORE MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES THROUGH...EVEN MORE SO IN THE EVENING. MVFR TRENDING TOWARD
IFR. DID NOT PUT THUNDER IN THE TAF...AS THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS A SMALLER CHANCE THAT ANY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY COULD HAVE EMBEDDED THUNDER.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
242 PM CDT
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES
EASTWARD. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHILE A SERIES OF LOWS SLOWLY DRIFT EAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE WEEK. THESE
LOWS MAY MERGE MIDWEEK BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...APPROACHING 25/30 KT MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY LATE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM
NORTHERN CANADA.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
300 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a stationary frontal boundary
extending from northeast Kansas to southern Kentucky. As a short
wave trough evident on latest water vapor imagery over
Oklahoma/Kansas lifts northward, it will give the front a push
northward tonight as well. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have
already developed along the front in association with the
approaching wave across eastern Kansas into central/western
Missouri...and this activity is expected to develop/spread
northeastward into central Illinois this evening. With a deeper
fetch of Gulf of Mexico moisture now apparent on water vapor imagery
and surface dewpoints across the Plains in the lower to middle 60s,
there will be adequate moisture available for precip development
tonight. The main difference between the models is how quickly the
rain arrives. The HRRR has been consistently faster than the other
models, with showers arriving as far north as the I-74 corridor as
early as 03-04z. Meanwhile, the 12z NAM had been a couple hours
slower, generally keeping the far northern CWA dry until around
midnight. The 18z run of the NAM has quickened the process and now
looks very similar to the HRRR. As a result, will be adjusting PoPs
to carry likely/categorical everywhere north of the I-70 corridor by
mid to late evening. The rain will lift northward through the night
and will likely be mainly along/north of I-74 by early Monday
morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016
The northward progression of a warm front will highlight the
day on Monday, and signal increasing temps and dewpoints for the
first half of the week, along with chances for strong storms.
Monday morning will see a band of ongoing convection lifting north
across central Illinois ahead of the front, with precip generally
north of I-72 by sunrise. The mid-morning may see a break in the
rainfall for a majority of our forecast area. Storm chances will
increase from SW to NE late Monday morning and afternoon as an upper
level wave progresses eastward along the warm front. Our entire area
in included in a Marginal Risk (5%) of severe storms Monday
afternoon/eve. Instability params are pointing toward areas west of
Springfield to Peoria having higher instability values than our
eastern counties. MUCAPES of 1000-1400 J/kg could develop in the
west by afternoon if some sunshine develops during the break in the
rain Monday morning. Bulk shear values are marginal, in the 20-35kt
range with the lower values in W IL and higher near Indiana. Will
keep likely PoPs Monday afternoon and categorical PoPs Mon night as
a strong upper level wave progresses across IL into Tuesday morning.
Storm chances will diminish by mid-morning on Tuesday, but increase
again Tues afternoon as a 500mb shortwave lifts across central IL.
MUCAPES on Tues afternoon look to climb into the 2000-3000 J/kg
range, with bulk shear of 30-35kt. The SPC Marginal risk is
currently south of I-72, which may get changed to a Slight risk
before Tuesday arrives if current instability trends continue. We
kept likely PoPs Tues afternoon, with large hail and damaging winds
possible with the strongest storms. Low level helicity values appear
supportive of rotating updrafts, especially in east-central and
southeast IL.
A NAM is advertising a break in the rain/storms for Tuesday night
and Wed morning, before the next wave of low pressure reaches IL Wed
afternoon. Will keep lower chance PoPs during that time to account
possible scattered redevelopment along lingering boundaries.
Our area will remain in the warm sector Monday afternoon through
Wednesday, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s Monday
through Tuesday, then climbing into the mid to upper 60s on
Wednesday. That will help fuel another round of strong to severe
storms late Wed afternoon but primarily Wed night, as MUCAPES
possibly reach 3000-4500 J/kg across our forecast area, with the
highest instability in southeast IL. Bulk shear values in SE IL will
be marginal again, with 20-35kts indicated in the 12z NAM output. We
ramped up PoPs Wed night to likely over most of our counties, as a
cold front pushes from west to east, reaching just east of I-57 by
12z/7am Thursday.
Cooler and drier air will filter into Illinois behind that cold
front, bringing a break in the rain for Thur and Thursday night.
Highs will stay in the low to mid 70s on Thurs, with highs on Friday
in the upper 60s N of I-74 and low 70s S of I-70. Rain chances will
increase Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front arrives from
the Northern Plains. There are differing solutions in the extended
models about the path of the surface low, but timing still looks
close for Fri aftn and Fri night rain. Dry and much cooler
conditions are projected for next weekend, with highs only in the
upper 50s to low 60s on Saturday, and overnight lows in the lower
40s Saturday night. Highs on Sunday look to climb a few degrees
above Saturday, as southerly winds develop ahead of the next rain
producer for Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at the central Illinois terminals
through the afternoon before a warm front begins to lift northward
toward the area tonight. Models have been consistently showing
showers and thunderstorms developing north of the front across
Missouri later this afternoon, then spreading/developing
northeastward into central Illinois during the evening. Still some
discrepancies about how fast this process will unfold, but general
consensus brings scattered showers into KSPI by 02z...then further
north to KPIA by around 06z. Main forecast challenge will be
how low the ceilings will drop with the rain later tonight. HRRR
suggests only MVFR, while the NAM points to a more pessimistic IFR
forecast. Given increasing moisture along/north of the approaching
warm front, prefer lower ceilings. As such, have introduced IFR at
KSPI by 05z, then further north to KPIA by 10z. The rain/low
clouds will tend to lift north of the TAF sites by Monday morning,
so have raised ceilings to VFR and dropped predominant rain
mention after the 12-15z time frame.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
138 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...1038 AM CDT
A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS DRAPED NEAR A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE SEASONALLY MILD
CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE. LOW LEVEL WINDS APPEAR WEAK ENOUGH TO
PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE...THUS MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AT THE LAKEFRONT WITH SOME MID TO LATE AFTERNOON COOLING AWAY A
BIT FARTHER INLAND EXPECTED AS WELL. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
DOWNTOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A LOCAL
CLIMATOLOGY OF INLAND TEMPS NEAR 70.
KMD
&&
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP TRENDS TODAY
AND THEN LATER TONIGHT...AND THEN WITH AN ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED
THIS WEEK.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING SOME LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUING TO
STREAM SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...RIDING
ALONG SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY. AT THIS TIME...THESE SHOWERS ARE
STAYING SOUTH OF THE CWA. DO EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO SLIGHTLY LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING...AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ONLY EXPECT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA TO
OBSERVE PERIODIC LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND WITH THE BULK OF
ANY INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH...THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE
PRESENT OR BE VERY BRIEF/LIMITED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY THE
AFTERNOON BUT WITH CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA.
PRECIP/CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER WARMING IN THAT AREA BUT FOR
REMAINING AREAS ACROSS THE CWA...DO THINK TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY FORM LATER
TODAY...BUT WITH WARMING INTO THE 60S FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS TURN ONSHORE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A FAIRLY ENERGETIC VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE VARIES TO THE EXTENT OF THE NORTHEAST
PUSH OF THIS PRECIP WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING MOST OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA DRY TONIGHT...WHILE OTHER SWING
LARGE PRECIP SHIELD NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. KEPT THE IDEA OF PRECIP
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST TO THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT DID CONFINE HIGHEST POPS TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE FOR FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...ONCE AGAIN OWING FOR LOWER CONFIDENCE. INSTABILITY
APPEARS TO BE WEAK DURING THIS TIME BUT STRONGER FORCING WITH THIS
WAVE COULD OFFSET LACKING INSTABILITY...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.
DUE TO THE VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE WILL
BE IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR
WHATEVER PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT TO LINGER AT LEAST FOR A TIME IN
THE MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE EAST. A DRY PERIOD COULD BE
OBSERVED BEFORE TURN ATTENTION TO LIKELY REDEVELOPMENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THIS WITH NORTHWARD PUSHING BOUNDARY AND MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL HELP FOR THIS REDEVELOPMENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY KEY FOR STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE VARIES TO THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT ITS VERY POSSIBLE FOR IT TO PUSH
NORTH INTO AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. WITH THIS
POSSIBILITY...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED FOR SOME STRONGER DEVELOPMENT
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD
AND EVEN MORE INTO THE EVENING...IF THE BOUNDARY LIFTS FURTHER
NORTH. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT HAVE
MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY AND THINK TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE MOST LOCATIONS
OBSERVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM DOES APPEAR TO WEAKEN
DURING THAT TIME THOUGH WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE WEAKER
SIDE. HOWEVER...HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR IN THE PRESENCE OF A
LINGERING BOUNDARY COULD AID FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL THEN LIKELY DIMINISH/EXIT TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH BUT PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH.
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS LOW BUT ADVERTISED
PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND ANOTHER PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON. LOOKS
LIKE SOME DRY PERIODS SHOULD RETURN BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...BUT WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO POSSIBLY WORK ITS WAY
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
CONCERNS:
- TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
- TIMING OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
- THUNDER POTENTIAL LATER MONDAY
A LAKE BREEZE CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW INLAND PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE
THROUGH ORD/MDW AROUND 1930Z...POSSIBLY A BIT LATER AT MDW AS IT
IS NOT MOVING AS QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH. SPEEDS WITH THE LAKE
BREEZE HAVE LARGELY BEEN 8 KT OR LESS...AND NO REASON THAT THIS
WOULD INCREASE OTHER THAN RIGHT WITH THE LAKE BREEZE PASSAGE.
AFTER THE LAKE BREEZE EXPECT WINDS TO SETTLE TO A LIGHTER SE
THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE FIRST BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. MOISTURE IS WEAKER WITH THIS WAVE...PARTICULARLY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT FORCING SEEMS DECENT ENOUGH TO CARRY A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER SHRA. CARRIED AN EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE MORNING
WHICH MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AND NEED SOME DETAIL REFINEMENT BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN VFR. BETTER LOW LEVEL SATURATION
OCCURS IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD WHERE FORCING IS WEAKER AND SUPPORT DRIER TIMES
BEFORE MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES THROUGH...EVEN MORE SO IN THE EVENING. MVFR TRENDING TOWARD
IFR. DID NOT PUT THUNDER IN THE TAF...AS THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS A SMALLER CHANCE THAT ANY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY COULD HAVE EMBEDDED THUNDER.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
302 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST LATER TODAY. AS A LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...BUT
REMAIN WEAK. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY. THE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
MUCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS...HOWEVER WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BACK TO 10 TO
20 KT TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1256 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 AM CDT Sun May 8 2016
14z/9am surface analysis shows stationary frontal boundary
extending from northern Missouri to southern Kentucky. While no
precipitation is currently occurring along this particular boundary,
a persistent band of showers associated with the upper-level
front continues from eastern Iowa across north-central Illinois.
Latest radar imagery shows the showers primarily along and north
of the I-74 corridor. HRRR and 12z NAM both suggest these showers
will continue to lift slowly northeastward and dissipate over the
next 2-3 hours. Have therefore updated PoPs to remove rain mention
south of I-74 from now through mid-afternoon. As the day
progresses, the surface front will gradually become active, with
showers/thunder developing along/north of the boundary across
Missouri...then slowly spreading across south-central Illinois by
mid to late afternoon. Have added low chance PoPs along/south of a
Canton to Mattoon line after 21z accordingly. Better rain chances
will develop tonight as the low-level jet interacts with the
approaching warm front.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT Sun May 8 2016
A frontal boundary that brought some severe thunderstorms with
damaging wind gusts south of I-70 between 6-7 pm on Saturday, has
slipped sw of ILX`s CWA early this morning and extends just south of
I-64 in southern IL. A narrow band of isolated to scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms was over southwest CWA early this morning
along and a Macomb to Springfield to Effingham. This convection was
tied closer to the 850 mb frontal boundary just sw of Lincoln, IL.
Much drier and more stable air has worked into northeast CWA with
dewpoints in the 30s from Lacon to Bloomington to Champaign and
Danville northeast, while dewpoints in the 50s from Galesburg to
Jacksonville west. HRRR and RAP models take this narrow band of
elevated convection ENE across central IL through mid morning and
diminishes ne of I-74 late this morning. Then isolated convection to
develop in sw CWA later this afternoon closer to frontal boundary
over sw IL. Cooler highs today range from mid 60s to lower 70s with
coolest readings by Danville and milder by Jacksonville sw and along
highway 50 in southeast IL. Southeast winds fairly light today near
10 mph or less.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT Sun May 8 2016
Unsettled weather pattern expected across central and southeast IL
through Wednesday evening, with another chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms Fri/Sat. SPC has marginal risk across area later
Monday afternoon and Monday evening and from I-72 south on Tuesday
afternoon/evening for strong winds and hail. Temperatures to
gradually warm next few days, peaking in the lower 80s on Wed and
then turning cooler late this weekend and especially next
weekend.
00Z forecast models take fairly strong surface low pressure into
central Nebraska by 12Z/Mon and brings a warm front ne toward
central IL, and lifts through central IL during Monday as low
pressure lifts northward. This will likely bring a period of showers
and thunderstorms to the area. SPC just has general risk of
thunderstorms tonight and Monday morning. Most unstable airmass is
in sw CWA later Monday afternoon until mid evening Monday where
CAPES reach 1000-1400 J/kg while bulk shear peaks from 30-40 kts. So
feel better risk of severe storms maybe in our SW CWA again.
Strongest bulk shear of 30-40 kts and highest CAPES of 1000-1800
J/kg are south of I-72 on Tue afternoon/evening where marginal risk
of severe storms continues. Highs Monday in low to mid 70s, then in
mid to upper 70s Tue and mostly lower 80s on Wed.
Cutoff low pressure over the Dakotas on Wed and brings a cold front
east across IL during Wed night to continue good chances of showers
and thunderstorms over central/se IL Wed afternoon and Wed night
along with warm summerlike conditions on Wed. Models have trended
drier on Thu behind the cold front with just slight chance of
showers in eastern IL Thu. Temps cool closer to normal ranging from
near 70F over the IL river valley and mid 70s in southeast IL with
similar temps on Friday. Have dry conditions Thu night and then
return chances of showers and thunderstorms by Friday afternoon and
Friday night as next weather system moves in from the northern
Plains. A deepening upper level low into the Great Lakes region late
this week into next week brings cooler temperatures in the 60s next
Sat/Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at the central Illinois terminals
through the afternoon before a warm front begins to lift northward
toward the area tonight. Models have been consistently showing
showers and thunderstorms developing north of the front across
Missouri later this afternoon, then spreading/developing
northeastward into central Illinois during the evening. Still some
discrepancies about how fast this process will unfold, but general
consensus brings scattered showers into KSPI by 02z...then further
north to KPIA by around 06z. Main forecast challenge will be
how low the ceilings will drop with the rain later tonight. HRRR
suggests only MVFR, while the NAM points to a more pessimistic IFR
forecast. Given increasing moisture along/north of the approaching
warm front, prefer lower ceilings. As such, have introduced IFR at
KSPI by 05z, then further north to KPIA by 10z. The rain/low
clouds will tend to lift north of the TAF sites by Monday morning,
so have raised ceilings to VFR and dropped predominant rain
mention after the 12-15z time frame.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1042 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
1038 AM CDT
A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS DRAPED NEAR A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE SEASONALLY MILD
CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE. LOW LEVEL WINDS APPEAR WEAK ENOUGH TO
PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE...THUS MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AT THE LAKEFRONT WITH SOME MID TO LATE AFTERNOON COOLING AWAY A
BIT FARTHER INLAND EXPECTED AS WELL. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
DOWNTOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A LOCAL
CLIMATOLOGY OF INLAND TEMPS NEAR 70.
KMD
&&
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP TRENDS TODAY
AND THEN LATER TONIGHT...AND THEN WITH AN ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED
THIS WEEK.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING SOME LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUING TO
STREAM SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...RIDING
ALONG SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY. AT THIS TIME...THESE SHOWERS ARE
STAYING SOUTH OF THE CWA. DO EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO SLIGHTLY LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING...AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ONLY EXPECT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA TO
OBSERVE PERIODIC LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND WITH THE BULK OF
ANY INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH...THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE
PRESENT OR BE VERY BRIEF/LIMITED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY THE
AFTERNOON BUT WITH CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA.
PRECIP/CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER WARMING IN THAT AREA BUT FOR
REMAINING AREAS ACROSS THE CWA...DO THINK TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY FORM LATER
TODAY...BUT WITH WARMING INTO THE 60S FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS TURN ONSHORE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A FAIRLY ENERGETIC VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE VARIES TO THE EXTENT OF THE NORTHEAST
PUSH OF THIS PRECIP WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING MOST OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA DRY TONIGHT...WHILE OTHER SWING
LARGE PRECIP SHIELD NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. KEPT THE IDEA OF PRECIP
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST TO THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT DID CONFINE HIGHEST POPS TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE FOR FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...ONCE AGAIN OWING FOR LOWER CONFIDENCE. INSTABILITY
APPEARS TO BE WEAK DURING THIS TIME BUT STRONGER FORCING WITH THIS
WAVE COULD OFFSET LACKING INSTABILITY...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.
DUE TO THE VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE WILL
BE IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR
WHATEVER PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT TO LINGER AT LEAST FOR A TIME IN
THE MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE EAST. A DRY PERIOD COULD BE
OBSERVED BEFORE TURN ATTENTION TO LIKELY REDEVELOPMENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THIS WITH NORTHWARD PUSHING BOUNDARY AND MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL HELP FOR THIS REDEVELOPMENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY KEY FOR STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE VARIES TO THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT ITS VERY POSSIBLE FOR IT TO PUSH
NORTH INTO AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. WITH THIS
POSSIBILITY...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED FOR SOME STRONGER DEVELOPMENT
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD
AND EVEN MORE INTO THE EVENING...IF THE BOUNDARY LIFTS FURTHER
NORTH. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT HAVE
MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY AND THINK TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE MOST LOCATIONS
OBSERVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM DOES APPEAR TO WEAKEN
DURING THAT TIME THOUGH WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE WEAKER
SIDE. HOWEVER...HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR IN THE PRESENCE OF A
LINGERING BOUNDARY COULD AID FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL THEN LIKELY DIMINISH/EXIT TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH BUT PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH.
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS LOW BUT ADVERTISED
PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND ANOTHER PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON. LOOKS
LIKE SOME DRY PERIODS SHOULD RETURN BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...BUT WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO POSSIBLY WORK ITS WAY
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL START
OUT VRB OR CALM...BUT WITH SOME HEATING EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
WESTERLY RATHER QUICKLY OR BY 15Z. SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN
MINIMAL...OR LESS THAN 8KT THROUGH THIS MORNING. THEN WITH THE
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY OR
AROUND 18Z. THE CHALLENGE IS WHEN WILL IT BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND.
SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE TIMING COULD END UP BEING AS LATE
AT 20Z OR PERHAPS LATER IF THE WEST WINDS ARE STRONGER AT THE
SURFACE. HAVE CONTINUED THE THINKING THAT A LAKE BREEZE WILL PUSH
INLAND AROUND 20Z...THEN WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
LATER THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL STEADILY THICKEN LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. THE
COVERAGE FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS THUNDER LOOKS TO REMAIN MINIMAL AT
THIS TIME...BUT AS MONDAY MORNING PROGRESSES THE COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE ENOUGH THAT THE VCTS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
302 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST LATER TODAY. AS A LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...BUT
REMAIN WEAK. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY. THE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
MUCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS...HOWEVER WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BACK TO 10 TO
20 KT TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
952 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 AM CDT Sun May 8 2016
14z/9am surface analysis shows stationary frontal boundary
extending from northern Missouri to southern Kentucky. While no
precipitation is currently occurring along this particular boundary,
a persistent band of showers associated with the upper-level
front continues from eastern Iowa across north-central Illinois.
Latest radar imagery shows the showers primarily along and north
of the I-74 corridor. HRRR and 12z NAM both suggest these showers
will continue to lift slowly northeastward and dissipate over the
next 2-3 hours. Have therefore updated PoPs to remove rain mention
south of I-74 from now through mid-afternoon. As the day
progresses, the surface front will gradually become active, with
showers/thunder developing along/north of the boundary across
Missouri...then slowly spreading across south-central Illinois by
mid to late afternoon. Have added low chance PoPs along/south of a
Canton to Mattoon line after 21z accordingly. Better rain chances
will develop tonight as the low-level jet interacts with the
approaching warm front.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT Sun May 8 2016
A frontal boundary that brought some severe thunderstorms with
damaging wind gusts south of I-70 between 6-7 pm on Saturday, has
slipped sw of ILX`s CWA early this morning and extends just south of
I-64 in southern IL. A narrow band of isolated to scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms was over southwest CWA early this morning
along and a Macomb to Springfield to Effingham. This convection was
tied closer to the 850 mb frontal boundary just sw of Lincoln, IL.
Much drier and more stable air has worked into northeast CWA with
dewpoints in the 30s from Lacon to Bloomington to Champaign and
Danville northeast, while dewpoints in the 50s from Galesburg to
Jacksonville west. HRRR and RAP models take this narrow band of
elevated convection ENE across central IL through mid morning and
diminishes ne of I-74 late this morning. Then isolated convection to
develop in sw CWA later this afternoon closer to frontal boundary
over sw IL. Cooler highs today range from mid 60s to lower 70s with
coolest readings by Danville and milder by Jacksonville sw and along
highway 50 in southeast IL. Southeast winds fairly light today near
10 mph or less.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT Sun May 8 2016
Unsettled weather pattern expected across central and southeast IL
through Wednesday evening, with another chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms Fri/Sat. SPC has marginal risk across area later
Monday afternoon and Monday evening and from I-72 south on Tuesday
afternoon/evening for strong winds and hail. Temperatures to
gradually warm next few days, peaking in the lower 80s on Wed and
then turning cooler late this weekend and especially next
weekend.
00Z forecast models take fairly strong surface low pressure into
central Nebraska by 12Z/Mon and brings a warm front ne toward
central IL, and lifts through central IL during Monday as low
pressure lifts northward. This will likely bring a period of showers
and thunderstorms to the area. SPC just has general risk of
thunderstorms tonight and Monday morning. Most unstable airmass is
in sw CWA later Monday afternoon until mid evening Monday where
CAPES reach 1000-1400 J/kg while bulk shear peaks from 30-40 kts. So
feel better risk of severe storms maybe in our SW CWA again.
Strongest bulk shear of 30-40 kts and highest CAPES of 1000-1800
J/kg are south of I-72 on Tue afternoon/evening where marginal risk
of severe storms continues. Highs Monday in low to mid 70s, then in
mid to upper 70s Tue and mostly lower 80s on Wed.
Cutoff low pressure over the Dakotas on Wed and brings a cold front
east across IL during Wed night to continue good chances of showers
and thunderstorms over central/se IL Wed afternoon and Wed night
along with warm summerlike conditions on Wed. Models have trended
drier on Thu behind the cold front with just slight chance of
showers in eastern IL Thu. Temps cool closer to normal ranging from
near 70F over the IL river valley and mid 70s in southeast IL with
similar temps on Friday. Have dry conditions Thu night and then
return chances of showers and thunderstorms by Friday afternoon and
Friday night as next weather system moves in from the northern
Plains. A deepening upper level low into the Great Lakes region late
this week into next week brings cooler temperatures in the 60s next
Sat/Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun May 8 2016
Predominantly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time,
although brief MVFR or IFR conditions can`t be ruled out during a
heavier thunderstorm. A break in the stormy weather will occur
early this morning, with chances returning again tonight. Winds
will be predominantly southeast through the period.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
342 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP TRENDS TODAY
AND THEN LATER TONIGHT...AND THEN WITH AN ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED
THIS WEEK.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING SOME LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUING TO
STREAM SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...RIDING
ALONG SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY. AT THIS TIME...THESE SHOWERS ARE
STAYING SOUTH OF THE CWA. DO EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO SLIGHTLY LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING...AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ONLY EXPECT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA TO
OBSERVE PERIODIC LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND WITH THE BULK OF
ANY INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH...THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE
PRESENT OR BE VERY BRIEF/LIMITED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY THE
AFTERNOON BUT WITH CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA.
PRECIP/CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER WARMING IN THAT AREA BUT FOR
REMAINING AREAS ACROSS THE CWA...DO THINK TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY FORM LATER
TODAY...BUT WITH WARMING INTO THE 60S FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS TURN ONSHORE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A FAIRLY ENERGETIC VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE VARIES TO THE EXTENT OF THE NORTHEAST
PUSH OF THIS PRECIP WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING MOST OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA DRY TONIGHT...WHILE OTHER SWING
LARGE PRECIP SHIELD NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. KEPT THE IDEA OF PRECIP
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST TO THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT DID CONFINE HIGHEST POPS TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE FOR FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...ONCE AGAIN OWING FOR LOWER CONFIDENCE. INSTABILITY
APPEARS TO BE WEAK DURING THIS TIME BUT STRONGER FORCING WITH THIS
WAVE COULD OFFSET LACKING INSTABILITY...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.
DUE TO THE VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE WILL
BE IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR
WHATEVER PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT TO LINGER AT LEAST FOR A TIME IN
THE MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE EAST. A DRY PERIOD COULD BE
OBSERVED BEFORE TURN ATTENTION TO LIKELY REDEVELOPMENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THIS WITH NORTHWARD PUSHING BOUNDARY AND MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL HELP FOR THIS REDEVELOPMENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY KEY FOR STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE VARIES TO THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT ITS VERY POSSIBLE FOR IT TO PUSH
NORTH INTO AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. WITH THIS
POSSIBILITY...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED FOR SOME STRONGER DEVELOPMENT
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD
AND EVEN MORE INTO THE EVENING...IF THE BOUNDARY LIFTS FURTHER
NORTH. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT HAVE
MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY AND THINK TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE MOST LOCATIONS
OBSERVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM DOES APPEAR TO WEAKEN
DURING THAT TIME THOUGH WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE WEAKER
SIDE. HOWEVER...HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR IN THE PRESENCE OF A
LINGERING BOUNDARY COULD AID FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL THEN LIKELY DIMINISH/EXIT TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH BUT PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH.
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS LOW BUT ADVERTISED
PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND ANOTHER PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON. LOOKS
LIKE SOME DRY PERIODS SHOULD RETURN BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...BUT WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO POSSIBLY WORK ITS WAY
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK...WITH
THE MAIN CONCERN BEING THE LIKELIHOOD OF A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING
EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL START WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 6-10KT. WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT IT APPEARS FAVORABLE THAT
A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND AROUND 18Z...REACHING
ORD/MDW CLOSER TO 19Z WITH WINDS INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST THEN
MORE EASTERLY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. FURTHER INLAND
AIRFIELDS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THE LAKE BREEZE AND MAINTAIN A
SOUTHWEST/WEST WIND BETWEEN 8-12KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEN
AFTER SUNSET WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL STEADILY THICKEN BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR CONDS
THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
302 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST LATER TODAY. AS A LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...BUT
REMAIN WEAK. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY. THE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
MUCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS...HOWEVER WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BACK TO 10 TO
20 KT TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
337 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT Sun May 8 2016
A frontal boundary that brought some severe thunderstorms with
damaging wind gusts south of I-70 between 6-7 pm on Saturday, has
slipped sw of ILX`s CWA early this morning and extends just south of
I-64 in southern IL. A narrow band of isolated to scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms was over southwest CWA early this morning
along and a Macomb to Springfield to Effingham. This convection was
tied closer to the 850 mb frontal boundary just sw of Lincoln, IL.
Much drier and more stable air has worked into northeast CWA with
dewpoints in the 30s from Lacon to Bloomington to Champaign and
Danville northeast, while dewpoints in the 50s from Galesburg to
Jacksonville west. HRRR and RAP models take this narrow band of
elevated convection ENE across central IL through mid morning and
diminishes ne of I-74 late this morning. Then isolated convection to
develop in sw CWA later this afternoon closer to frontal boundary
over sw IL. Cooler highs today range from mid 60s to lower 70s with
coolest readings by Danville and milder by Jacksonville sw and along
highway 50 in southeast IL. Southeast winds fairly light today near
10 mph or less.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT Sun May 8 2016
Unsettled weather pattern expected across central and southeast IL
through Wednesday evening, with another chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms Fri/Sat. SPC has marginal risk across area later
Monday afternoon and Monday evening and from I-72 south on Tuesday
afternoon/evening for strong winds and hail. Temperatures to
gradually warm next few days, peaking in the lower 80s on Wed and
then turning cooler late this weekend and especially next
weekend.
00Z forecast models take fairly strong surface low pressure into
central Nebraska by 12Z/Mon and brings a warm front ne toward
central IL, and lifts through central IL during Monday as low
pressure lifts northward. This will likely bring a period of showers
and thunderstorms to the area. SPC just has general risk of
thunderstorms tonight and Monday morning. Most unstable airmass is
in sw CWA later Monday afternoon until mid evening Monday where
CAPES reach 1000-1400 J/kg while bulk shear peaks from 30-40 kts. So
feel better risk of severe storms maybe in our SW CWA again.
Strongest bulk shear of 30-40 kts and highest CAPES of 1000-1800
J/kg are south of I-72 on Tue afternoon/evening where marginal risk
of severe storms continues. Highs Monday in low to mid 70s, then in
mid to upper 70s Tue and mostly lower 80s on Wed.
Cutoff low pressure over the Dakotas on Wed and brings a cold front
east across IL during Wed night to continue good chances of showers
and thunderstorms over central/se IL Wed afternoon and Wed night
along with warm summerlike conditions on Wed. Models have trended
drier on Thu behind the cold front with just slight chance of
showers in eastern IL Thu. Temps cool closer to normal ranging from
near 70F over the IL river valley and mid 70s in southeast IL with
similar temps on Friday. Have dry conditions Thu night and then
return chances of showers and thunderstorms by Friday afternoon and
Friday night as next weather system moves in from the northern
Plains. A deepening upper level low into the Great Lakes region late
this week into next week brings cooler temperatures in the 60s next
Sat/Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016
A band of showers from near KMQB-KLWV expected to continue
overnight...possibly increasing in coverage as flow aloft
interacting with an elevated frontal boundary increases. Only an
isolated chance for thunderstorms and low coverage of showers so
have only included VCSH in TAFS, along with VFR conditions. A lull
in precipitation expected for much of the day Sunday then
precipitation associated with a warm frontal boundary will begin
to spread northeastward late in the afternoon. Expecting scattered
showers returning across the area toward the end of the 24 hour
TAF forecast period. Winds SE up to 8 kts through the period.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
108 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...747 PM CDT
QUIET AND MAINLY PLEASANT NIGHT SETTING IN FOR THE AREA WITH ONLY
MINOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW DRAPED OVER THE
MIDSECTION OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AND WILL MOVE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH TONIGHT WITH DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR REPLENISHING INTO THE AREA.
BELIEVE THE SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TO STAY OVER THOSE LOCATIONS...BASICALLY ALONG THE
ELEVATED MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. FURTHER SUPPORTING THIS...THE
00Z ILX RAOB INDICATED NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS SO NOT
SEEING LIKELIHOOD FOR THIS UNSETTLED AXIS TO SHIFT NORTH.
AS A SLIGHT ASIDE...IF NOT FOR THE THICKER HIGH CLOUDS IT WOULD
LIKELY BE QUITE THE VIBRANT SUNSET THIS EVENING GIVEN UPPER LEVEL
SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM FIRES AS SEEN ON LATE DAY VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. MOST OF THE CWA LOOKS TO HAVE JUST THICK ENOUGH TO CIRRUS
TO NOT MAKE OUT THE SUNSET.
GOING FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOK ON TRACK. DEW POINTS HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 20S IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. SOME CIRRUS AND EVEN POSSIBLY THE SMOKE ALOFT WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT A HUGE TEMPERATURE DROP IN THESE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...WHICH IS DIURNALLY THE MOST FAVORED TIME. STILL THOUGH
THINK THERE COULD BE PATCHY FROST IN NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE SOME
OF THESE LOWEST DEW POINTS ARE PRESENTLY.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
254 PM...THE COLD FRONT IS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME STATIONARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IL
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
CWA INTO THIS EVENING. CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA AND MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS.
WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BEFORE TURNING WESTERLY. WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...LOWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE LOWER
40S MOST AREAS AND POSSIBLY UPPER 30S IN THE USUAL COOL SPOTS.
MORE WIDESPREAD UPPER 30S WITH SOME MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING HOW LOW
TEMPS MAY DROP THERE...OPTED TO INCLUDE PATCHY FROST MENTION BUT
EVENING SHIFT MAY ABLE TO DROP THIS AS TRENDS EMERGE.
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS NOW APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
LAKE BREEZE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OR PERHAPS ONSHORE WINDS RIGHT AT
THE LAKESHORE. IN ADDITION...IF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO...THEN HIGH TEMPS MIGHT END UP A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED UPPER 60S/NEAR 70. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
254 PM...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
COULD BE A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO PRECIP SO FURTHER ADJUSTMENT
TO POPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BUT LIKELY SOUTH OF I-80 LOOKS ON
TRACK. ASSUMING THIS TIMING PANS OUT...COULD BE A LULL MIDDAY
MONDAY AND THEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS TIME PERIOD HAS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD/PROLONGED ACTIVITY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN
IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE AND QPF FORECASTS RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH FOCUS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE POPS. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PRECIP AND THEN DRYING OUT THURSDAY.
A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN ARRIVES FRIDAY AND WHILE THIS
MAY ALSO BRING SOME SHOWERS...MODELS SUGGEST A VERY COOL AIRMASS
FOR MID MAY WITH 850MB TEMPS POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW ZERO HERE
ACROSS NORTHERN IL. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK...WITH
THE MAIN CONCERN BEING THE LIKELIHOOD OF A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING
EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL START WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 6-10KT. WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT IT APPEARS FAVORABLE THAT
A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND AROUND 18Z...REACHING
ORD/MDW CLOSER TO 19Z WITH WINDS INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST THEN
MORE EASTERLY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. FURTHER INLAND
AIRFIELDS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THE LAKE BREEZE AND MAINTAIN A
SOUTHWEST/WEST WIND BETWEEN 8-12KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEN
AFTER SUNSET WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL STEADILY THICKEN BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR CONDS
THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
146 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WINDS EARLIER
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST SLIDES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WHILE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN...WAVE HEIGHTS CURRENTLY AROUND 7 FT ON THE
ILLINOIS NEARSHORE AND 8-9 FT ALONG THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WILL
TAKE A LITTLE MORE TIME TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. THE ILLINOIS
NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT QUICKER...POTENTIALLY BY
EARLY EVENING...THOUGH WILL KEEP BOTH AREAS IN THE ADVISORY FOR
NOW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT THEN TO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT
BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKE MONDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL RESPOND BY TURNING MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOWS EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE
ROCKIES.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1153 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016
Cold front has now pushed well south of the central IL forecast
area...with westerly flow aloft pushing over the frontal boundary
producing scattered showers across the area. Overnight...the flow
aloft should increase, producing continued showers, or perhaps an
increase in activity. Elevated instability could produce isolated
to scattered thunderstorms as well in the overnight hours.
Northeast winds will decrease overnight as surface high pressure
crosses the area. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler
tonight in the post- cold-frontal air mass with lows in the upper
40s and low 50s...compared with the upper 50s and low 60s last
night. Updates for trends in shower coverage...otherwise forecast
is in good shape.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows cold front sagging southward toward
the I-74 corridor. With dewpoints pooling in the upper 50s to
around 60 along/ahead of the boundary, latest LAPS data is
indicating SBCAPE values of 1000-1500J/kg. 0-6km bulk shear remains
rather weak, but is expected to increase to between 40 and 50kt
later this afternoon/evening as an upper trough digs into the Great
Lakes. Given the moderate instability/shear parameters, the
potential exists for a few strong to severe thunderstorms from now
through about 02z/9pm. HRRR has consistently been showing clusters
of thunderstorms developing across northern Missouri/southern Iowa
this afternoon, then tracking southeastward across mainly the
southern third of the KILX CWA. Latest radar mosaic confirms the
HRRR, with thunderstorms currently around Quincy moving toward the
Winchester/Jacksonville areas. Thunderstorms should track/develop
southeastward over the next few hours, impacting locations along and
south of a Rushville...to Lincoln...to Paris line through early
evening. Main threats from the storms will be gusty winds and hail.
Once this initial wave of convection passes into the Ohio River
Valley, a lull in the precip is expected for the remainder of the
evening. Overnight...a weak LLJ interacting with the stalled
frontal boundary will result in scattered thunderstorm development
across the entire area. Have therefore focused highest PoPs across
the S/SE CWA late this afternoon into the early evening, then have
gone with chance PoPs across the board after midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016
The cold front will stall out south of our forecast area in the Ohio
River Valley by Sunday morning, with spotty showers lingering in the
post-frontal airmass across central IL. A majority of the day looks
dry, but will keep slight chance PoPs in the forecast due to
channeled vorticity in the northwest flow moving across IL. Sunday
afternoon, precip chances will begin to increase for areas west of
Springfield to Shelbyville, as the front begins to make a faster
northward push west of Illinois.
The warm front will lift northward through our forecast area
starting Sunday night, reaching between I-74 and I-88 by 00z/7pm
Monday. Likely chances of rain and storms will accompany the front,
with increasing PoPs from SW to NE Sunday night and Monday. There
may be a break in the rain Monday morning, which could allow the
atmosphere to recharge in the warm sector over central IL. A few
storms may become strong in our western counties Monday
afternoon/evening west of a line from Rushville to Springfield to
Taylorville, where CAPE values could climb to 1000 J/kg depending on
if any sunshine breaks through for any amount of time. Dewpoints
will climb into the low 60s, providing added fuel for storms.
Central IL will remain in the warm sector Monday night and Tuesday,
when categorical PoPs were expanded in the forecast to cover
increasing instability params. Tuesday afternoon, MUCAPES of 2000
J/kg appear possible, with additional strong storms across the
board. Shear values look marginal, so mainly large hail with those
storms.
Another break in the storms looks possible later Tuesday night and
Wednesday, before a cold front and a line of storms push across
Illinois Wed night.
Cooler air will arrive behind that front, along with some drier air
for Thursday through Friday morning. A cold front projected to reach
central IL Friday afternoon will increase rain and storm chances
once again through Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016
A band of showers from near KMQB-KLWV expected to continue
overnight...possibly increasing in coverage as flow aloft
interacting with an elevated frontal boundary increases. Only an
isolated chance for thunderstorms and low coverage of showers so
have only included VCSH in TAFS, along with VFR conditions. A lull
in precipitation expected for much of the day Sunday then
precipitation associated with a warm frontal boundary will begin
to spread northeastward late in the afternoon. Expecting scattered
showers returning across the area toward the end of the 24 hour
TAF forecast period. Winds SE up to 8 kts through the period.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
757 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 530 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS SURGE OF HIGHER
THETA E AIR ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT SETS THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING
OVERALL SCENARIO THUS FAR TODAY WITH MAIN AREA OF RAIN MOVING AWAY
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF
INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE. IF THE HRRR HOLDS TRUE THEN A BAND OF
SHOWERS WOULD EXPAND AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND THEN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WOULD PERSIST
INTO TUESDAY. THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE TAKING PLACE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH A NE TREND SO SEE NO REASON NOT TO
INCREASE TO HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A MESS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SOME IN THE NE AND STEADY
MAYBE RISING IN THE SW DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PROGRESS NORTH THE
FRONT MAKES.
MAIN WAVE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING WITH FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW
AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT ASSESS SITUATION.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
AS LONG WAVE TROUGH EJECTS THROUGH THE PLAINS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL MOVE BACK IN WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MAINTAINED
CHC TO LIKELY POPS THOUGH THIS TIME FRAME WITH DRYING BEHIND IT AS
WAVE DEPARTS...FRONT IS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS UPPER LOW
OVER CANADA SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH SENDING TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL WITH
A SERIES OF WAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE FLOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OVER FEW DAYS WARRANTING AT LEAST SOME MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FRI NGT INTO SAT AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE OVERALL DECLINING TREND IN FLIGHT
CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN INDIANA...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME HOURS
ON TUESDAY. FEW HOURS POSSIBLE FOR IFR CIGS AT KSBN NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...THOUGH SHOULD BRIEFLY TREND BACK INTO FUELING/ALTERNATE
CRITERIA FOR MAJORITY OF NIGHT. APPROACHING MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
INTO NERN IL FOR TUE ALONG WITH RENEWED WARM FRONTAL FOCUS TO THE
SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASE IN RAFL ALONG WITH SATURATION
LEVELS/CIG BASES LOWERING TO IFR FOR MUCH OF DAY...DID MAINTAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL 600 FT AT PRESENT GIVEN THE MODEL BLENDS PROPENSITYTO
BE OVERZEALOUS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
211 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
SOME OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL GET A BIT OF A REPRIEVE FROM THE
RAIN TODAY...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SOUTHERN HALF WHICH WILL
HAVE A CHANCE DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS THIS FRONT PUSHES BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD BACK
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK. FURTHER
OUT...MEAN UPPER TROUGHING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 812 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
AREA THIS MORNING. PER HRRR SHOULD SEE THIS GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWERS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...AND INTO KENTUCKY AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
TODAY...SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH IT WILL
STAY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S. TRENDED SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED TENNESSEE VALLEY COLD FRONT WILL START
MAKING ITS WAY BACK NORTH TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. AS A RESULT...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ECMWF SUGGESTS
GENERALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME PERIOD...WHILE COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW IS PLACE ALOFT...WITH A
GENERALLY TROUGH LIKE PATTERN. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES LOOK TO PUSH
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA WITHIN THIS FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE GOOD LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ARRIVE ON SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PERHAPS THE BEST LOOKING DRY DAY AT THIS POINT
APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE EXITS HAS JUST EXITED THE AREA THEN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THOUGH AS LOWER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
CYCLONIC AND YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING.
TEMPS LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AS EITHER
RAIN WILL BE EXPECTED WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PREDOMINATE OR COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING WHILE DRY NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
IS IN PLACE LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 081800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFT 10Z-12Z.
RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID REFRESH SUGGEST ONGOING RAINS ACROSS THE
TAF SITES WILL PUSH EAST 1-2 HOURS AFTER ISSUANCE. THUS HAVE
ENDING PRECIP MENTION RATHER QUICKLY AT MOST TAF SITES WITH THIS
ISSUANCE.
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT.
WITH PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION...VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LIFT. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION. THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MVFR AS THESE FEATURES
ARRIVE...ALONG WITH A PREVAILING PERIOD OF SHRA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
126 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
SOME OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL GET A BIT OF A REPRIEVE FROM THE
RAIN TODAY...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SOUTHERN HALF WHICH WILL
HAVE A CHANCE DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS THIS FRONT PUSHES BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD BACK
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK. FURTHER
OUT...MEAN UPPER TROUGHING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 812 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
AREA THIS MORNING. PER HRRR SHOULD SEE THIS GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWERS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...AND INTO KENTUCKY AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
TODAY...SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH IT WILL
STAY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S. TRENDED SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED TENNESSEE VALLEY COLD FRONT WILL START
MAKING ITS WAY BACK NORTH TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. AS A RESULT...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST BY NEXT SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WITH A
POSSIBLE LULL AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 081800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFT 10Z-12Z.
RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID REFRESH SUGGEST ONGOING RAINS ACROSS THE
TAF SITES WILL PUSH EAST 1-2 HOURS AFTER ISSUANCE. THUS HAVE
ENDING PRECIP MENTION RATHER QUICKLY AT MOST TAF SITES WITH THIS
ISSUANCE.
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT.
WITH PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION...VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LIFT. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION. THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MVFR AS THESE FEATURES
ARRIVE...ALONG WITH A PREVAILING PERIOD OF SHRA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
SOME OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL GET A BIT OF A REPRIEVE FROM THE
RAIN TODAY...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SOUTHERN HALF WHICH WILL
HAVE A CHANCE DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS THIS FRONT PUSHES BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD BACK
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK. FURTHER
OUT...MEAN UPPER TROUGHING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 812 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
AREA THIS MORNING. PER HRRR SHOULD SEE THIS GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWERS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...AND INTO KENTUCKY AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
TODAY...SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH IT WILL
STAY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S. TRENDED SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED TENNESSEE VALLEY COLD FRONT WILL START
MAKING ITS WAY BACK NORTH TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. AS A RESULT...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST BY NEXT SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WITH A
POSSIBLE LULL AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 081500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST BAND OF SHRA TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE IND TAF
SITE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS SEEN AT HUF AND BMG...A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THUS HAVE MENTIONED VCTS
FOR NOW. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY BRIEF DOWNPOUR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
/DISCUSSION FOR THE 08/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE TAF SITES BY TONIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT DRIFTS BACK NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR
CATEGORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THEY WILL START
TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THAT FRONT PUSHES NORTH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AFTER MON 09Z...AND CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR AT THAT POINT THROUGH
THE END OF TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL START OUT SOUTHWESTERLY AND SLOWLY BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 11 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...TDUD/JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
812 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
SOME OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL GET A BIT OF A REPRIEVE FROM THE
RAIN TODAY...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SOUTHERN HALF WHICH WILL
HAVE A CHANCE DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS THIS FRONT PUSHES BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD BACK
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK. FURTHER
OUT...MEAN UPPER TROUGHING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 812 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
AREA THIS MORNING. PER HRRR SHOULD SEE THIS GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWERS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...AND INTO KENTUCKY AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
TODAY...SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH IT WILL
STAY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S. TRENDED SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED TENNESSEE VALLEY COLD FRONT WILL START
MAKING ITS WAY BACK NORTH TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. AS A RESULT...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST BY NEXT SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WITH A
POSSIBLE LULL AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 08/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE TAF SITES BY TONIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT DRIFTS BACK NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR
CATEGORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THEY WILL START
TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THAT FRONT PUSHES NORTH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AFTER MON 09Z...AND CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR AT THAT POINT THROUGH
THE END OF TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL START OUT SOUTHWESTERLY AND SLOWLY BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 11 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
649 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SEMI-DIFFUSE DRYLINE LOCATED ROUGHLY
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SALINA TO
MEDICINE LODGE. CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ERUPT ALONG THE DRYLINE
JUST TO THE EAST OF P28.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AIRMASS DESTABILIZING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AS THE CLEARING CONTINUES...WITH MOST AREAS SLOWLY BECOMING
UNCAPPED. LATEST HI-RES MODELS (NAMNEST/ARW) SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE OK
PANHANDLE ROTATES EAST. GIVEN SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS...THINK A BROKEN LINE OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. BETTER BULK SHEAR IS
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...SO THINK THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
BE LOCATED ALONG OR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400. AS THE SUPERCELLS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KS PROGRESS TO THE EAST...THERE IS A A REMOTE CHANCE
OF A TORNADO...WHERE 0-1 KM SHEAR IS AROUND 20 KTS...BUT THINK THIS
CHANCE IS VERY SLIM...AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MARGINAL AND BETTER A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN OK. PREFER TO EMPHASIZE THE LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE
FLINT HILLS AND SE KS. BUT THE FURTHER EAST THE STORMS GET THE LESS
ORGANIZED THEY WILL BE...GIVEN THE BETTER BULK SHEAR SHIFTING INTO
SW MO BETWEEN 00-06Z. SO MORE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING...
WITH MOST OF THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT.
SHOULD SEE A NICE WARMUP ON TUE...AS S-SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WITH MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 80S.
LATEST GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW THE LOW MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNING TO
THE AREA FOR TUE EVENING/NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KS. EXPECT THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL KS FOR LATE TUE EVENING OR POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT TUE...WITH CONVERGENCE INCREASING ENOUGH FOR A STRONG
STORM CHANCE...LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS FROM KSLN TO KCNU.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS INTO SE KS
ON WED...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE FLINT
HILLS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED. BOTH THE GFS/NAM/WRF SHOW THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OR BEING SITUATED ACROSS SE KS FOR LATE
WED AFTERNOON...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS SE KS FOR LATE WED AFTERNOON OR WED EVENING. SO WILL KEEP
POPS GOING FOR MOST OF SE KS FOR WED EVENING.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THU WILL PLAY OUT.
THE NAM/WRF BLOWS UP A COMPLEX OF STORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND
DROPS IT E-SE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR LATE
WED NIGHT. WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THIS COMPLEX FURTHER SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PREFER TO KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL KS DRY FOR NOW...AND GO
WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS SOLUTION.
KETCHAM
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME WILL PLAY OUT. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG THE MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THE GFS FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE FASTER AND
ALLOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO THE PLAINS FASTER...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A MORE UNSETTLED WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A LOT
DRIER AND KEEPS THE MOISTURE RETURN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE
KS/OK BORDER. FOR CONSENSUS SAKE PREFER THE WETTER GFS
SOLUTION...KEEPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
KETCHAM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MAIN THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THROUGH MID-LATE
EVENING. THIS STORM ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE CNU TERMINAL WITH
POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER
BEHIND THIS CLUSTER TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A MOISTENED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD
LEAD TO MVFR/IFR STRATUS CEILINGS OVER THE FLINT HILLS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 57 86 63 77 / 60 10 20 30
HUTCHINSON 55 86 59 73 / 30 10 20 30
NEWTON 57 85 61 75 / 60 10 20 30
ELDORADO 58 85 63 79 / 70 10 20 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 57 86 64 80 / 70 10 20 20
RUSSELL 53 84 54 69 / 20 10 40 30
GREAT BEND 53 85 54 70 / 20 10 30 30
SALINA 55 85 58 72 / 40 10 30 30
MCPHERSON 55 85 58 72 / 30 10 30 30
COFFEYVILLE 62 84 65 82 / 70 10 20 40
CHANUTE 62 83 64 80 / 70 10 20 40
IOLA 62 83 64 79 / 80 10 20 40
PARSONS-KPPF 62 84 65 81 / 70 10 20 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KETCHAM
LONG TERM...KETCHAM
AVIATION...JMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
532 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SECONDARY CLOSED ROTATION ACROSS SW
KANSAS. UPSTREAM A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL MONTANA
AND ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO. ANOTHER UPPER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS IN OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH COLD FRONT/WARM FRONT EAST OF OUR CWA. A
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM YUMA COUNTY TO NEAR KGLD
AND SOUTH.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...VORTICITY ALOFT ROTATING ROUND UPPER LOW IN
THE SOUTH AND NORTH OF OUR CWA WILL COMBINE WITH RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR CWA TO BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD
AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN OUR FAR SOUTH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW INITIATION ROUGHLY ALONG COLORADO STATE LINE AND EAST WHERE
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE WITH PEAK COVERAGE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER SUNRISE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING PUT AN END TO ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY.
REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TD VALUES AROUND 50-58 ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA AND HAVE LED TO SB CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG
(WHICH RAPIDLY DROPS OFF IN THE WEST). DEEP LAYER SHEER HOWEVER IS
UNIMPRESSIVE (BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER BELOW 30KT)...SO MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE IN STRENGTH. CONSIDERING CAPE IN OUR EAST I
WOULDN`T RULE OUT A A FEW NEAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (HAIL/WIND)
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE CAPE IN OUR EAST.
SHORT RANGE ANALYSIS ALSO CURRENTLY SHOWS STRONG LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
AND GOOD 0-3KM CAPE NEAR SURFACE TROUGH IN OUR EAST AND THIS COULD
SET THE STAGE FOR LANDSPOUT DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE LOW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
UPDRAFTS IN THIS REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH RIGHT NOW.
TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER IDAHO WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH BASE OF TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND A STRONG
JET STREAK/MID LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BEGIN TO ROTATE TOWARDS OUR CWA.
DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WITHIN SW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING
OUR CWA FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL CONTINUES TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD ALONG
COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON BL MOISTURE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CAPE VALUES
COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 500 J/KG TO 1500 J/KG. SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER WITH DEEP MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE (PWATS OVER
1.0") WE COULD SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 BY
LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE UPPER PLAINS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED POPS ON AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT THIS
POINT HOWEVER WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING BOTH THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH MOVES TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING IN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE IT
BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES EAST. POPS INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY...AS
ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST...DRIVEN
BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER MANITOBA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF UPCOMING 24 HOURS. FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBERS BRING
FOG EAST TO KMCK. DECIDED TO MENTION MVFR VIS IN THE TAF. NOT
ANTICIPATING SHOWERS/STORMS TO AFFECT TAF SITES THIS EVENING. NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSES. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVES AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM SO RAIN/STORM CHANCES APPEAR QUITE HIGH.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1224 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
Forecast for thunderstorms today, and their potential strength still
remains dependent on how convection evolves over the next several
hours. Warm front has diffused a bit over north central Kansas,
where showers and isolated thunderstorms have continued in these
overnight hours, but boundary is generally north of I70. Next upper
wave noted in WV imagery lifting out of north Central Oklahoma at
this hour, and is the next feature expected to redevelop convection
as it moves through in the morning into early afternoon hours.
Boundary layer remains capped and early convection is expected to be
elevated, with a lower end severe threat. As afternoon progresses,
if atmosphere gets a chance to recover after the morning convection,
NAM suggests late afternoon/early evening storms would become
surface based with ample shear and instability to bring severe
storms. HRRR and others indicates storms forming along the dryline
in south central Kansas. Those storms would have the potential to
move into our western counties with a severe threat in the late
afternoon into evening hours, with all modes of severe weather
possible, including large hail, winds and isolated tornadoes
possible. This threat spreads east with time, with GFS spreading dry
slot back into the area from W to E overnight and ushering out most
of the storms by sunrise. Will have to watch for locally heavy
rainfall also as flow becomes more aligned north to south and has
frontal boundary near our northern counties.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
On Monday a strong shortwave will round the base of the main trough
axis and lift out over KS during the day. At the surface the dry
line will set up across central KS and be the focus for storm
development once the cap breaks. Steep mid level lapse rates will
accompany the shortwave, which should support surface based cape
around 3000 j/kg. The main issue is that the deep layer shear is sub
marginal to support much organized severe convection. Given the high
instability though localized hail and damaging wind will be possible
in the afternoon and evening. The decrease in the instability during
the late evening should cause ongoing storms to weaken. The models
show that the kicker wave over the northern Rockies will absorb the
initial wave over the northern plains. This may keep the dry line
from progressing eastward much by Tuesday, although most locations
should remain dry with subsidence behind the wave. Despite that
model sounding show an uncapped environment on Tuesday afternoon the
lack of forcing for ascent should limit any activity. On Tuesday
night a cold front will push into KS as the main system tracks over
the northern plains. The models are fairly consistent with
developing elevated showers mainly across north central KS Wednesday
morning. The environment tries to keep some instability ahead of
this front therefore could not rule out a few storms as well.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving northeast over TAF
sites. With the lighter precipitation, ceilings look to be staying
VFR so have kept this trend in the near term. Expect these storms
to last through the early afternoon before another round moves in
later in the evening. Expect conditions to deteriorate through
morning and have kept MVFR ceilings going through the morning.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Heller
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
641 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
Forecast for thunderstorms today, and their potential strength still
remains dependent on how convection evolves over the next several
hours. Warm front has diffused a bit over north central Kansas,
where showers and isolated thunderstorms have continued in these
overnight hours, but boundary is generally north of I70. Next upper
wave noted in WV imagery lifting out of north Central Oklahoma at
this hour, and is the next feature expected to redevelop convection
as it moves through in the morning into early afternoon hours.
Boundary layer remains capped and early convection is expected to be
elevated, with a lower end severe threat. As afternoon progresses,
if atmosphere gets a chance to recover after the morning convection,
NAM suggests late afternoon/early evening storms would become
surface based with ample shear and instability to bring severe
storms. HRRR and others indicates storms forming along the dryline
in south central Kansas. Those storms would have the potential to
move into our western counties with a severe threat in the late
afternoon into evening hours, with all modes of severe weather
possible, including large hail, winds and isolated tornadoes
possible. This threat spreads east with time, with GFS spreading dry
slot back into the area from W to E overnight and ushering out most
of the storms by sunrise. Will have to watch for locally heavy
rainfall also as flow becomes more aligned north to south and has
frontal boundary near our northern counties.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
On Monday a strong shortwave will round the base of the main trough
axis and lift out over KS during the day. At the surface the dry
line will set up across central KS and be the focus for storm
development once the cap breaks. Steep mid level lapse rates will
accompany the shortwave, which should support surface based cape
around 3000 j/kg. The main issue is that the deep layer shear is sub
marginal to support much organized severe convection. Given the high
instability though localized hail and damaging wind will be possible
in the afternoon and evening. The decrease in the instability during
the late evening should cause ongoing storms to weaken. The models
show that the kicker wave over the northern Rockies will absorb the
initial wave over the northern plains. This may keep the dry line
from progressing eastward much by Tuesday, although most locations
should remain dry with subsidence behind the wave. Despite that
model sounding show an uncapped environment on Tuesday afternoon the
lack of forcing for ascent should limit any activity. On Tuesday
night a cold front will push into KS as the main system tracks over
the northern plains. The models are fairly consistent with
developing elevated showers mainly across north central KS Wednesday
morning. The environment tries to keep some instability ahead of
this front therefore could not rule out a few storms as well.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
Kept VFR conditions a bit longer as storms just getting started in
SC KS at this hour. May need visby restrictions after 18z but
anticipate worse conditions in the evening and have carried
conditions as such.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
218 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
WARM SECTOR REALLY STRUGGLING TO INITIATE CONVECTION AND DESPITE
WHAT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN INDICATING...PROBABILITIES OF A
LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG DRY LINE APPEAR TO BE DECREASING.
STILL THINK REASONABLE CHANCE FOR MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF WARM FRONT...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF POPS CONSIDERABLY SOUTH
OF I-70.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 452 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SHORT DURATION HIGH WIND
EVENT BEHIND THE DRY LINE IN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO.
STARTING TO SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AHEAD OF DRY
LINE AND EXPECT FOR THIS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THIS AREA NOT
NEARLY AS BACKED AS NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA...TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE LESS AND DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO ADJUST CURRENT
WATCHES. HAVE INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT AND TRIED TO BE A BIT
MORE DETERMINISTIC AS THIS NEXT AREA OF STORMS DEVELOP AS EXPECT A
FAIRLY SOLID LINE TO DEVELOP BY 00Z.
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 45-50 KT WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR AS
DRYLINE BEGINS TO MOVE. BASED ON LAA AND NEARBY
OBSERVATIONS...WINDOW FOR SIGNIFICANT WINDS LIMITED AND PEAK
VALUES TOPPING OUT AROUND 48 KTS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN ANY
WIDESPREAD PERSISTENT HIGH WIND THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OUT
OF EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AS LIFT
OVERCOMES THE CAPPING MECHANISM THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL HOWEVER THERE IS AN
INCREASED FAVORABILITY FOR TORNADOES IN YUMA...KIT CARSON...AND
CHEYENNE CO COUNTIES THROUGH AROUND 01Z. DRIER AIR WILL BE PULLED
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY EXPECTED EAST OF HWY 27 AS A
WELL DEVELOPED DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUNDAYS THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOWS TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND EUROPEAN...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WEDNESDAY HAS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
DAKOTAS...WHICH POSITIONS A TROUGH OVER THE CWA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA A RIDGE BEGINS TO FORM ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CONUS. THE TROUGH IS EAST OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING AND BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE GFS HAS THIS
PATTERN INHIBITING THE RIDGE FROM FULLY ENGULFING THE CWA AND STAYS
SITTING OVER THE 4 CORNERS AND THE EUROPEAN HAS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA SATURDAY WHICH PUSHES THE RIDGE OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY. EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES THE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE RIDGING. THERE
ARE SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AS A FEW 700 MB
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
FOR 06Z TAFS...AREA OF SMOKE HAS BEEN REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT MCK
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINING
THE SAME SEE NO REASON WHY IT WILL IMPROVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE VISIBILITY FORECAST. DO THINK
THAT AREA OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AS MOISTURE POOLS IN EASTERN
CWA...SO EXPECT VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 3 MILES TO MAINTAIN ITSELF
THROUGH SUNRISE. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 2000 FT CEILINGS AT GLD AS
SMALL FINGER OF LOW STRATUS WRAPPING AROUND LOW CIRCULATION...BUT
EXPECT THIS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
313 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
Forecast for thunderstorms today, and their potential strength still
remains dependent on how convection evolves over the next several
hours. Warm front has diffused a bit over north central Kansas,
where showers and isolated thunderstorms have continued in these
overnight hours, but boundary is generally north of I70. Next upper
wave noted in WV imagery lifting out of north Central Oklahoma at
this hour, and is the next feature expected to redevelop convection
as it moves through in the morning into early afternoon hours.
Boundary layer remains capped and early convection is expected to be
elevated, with a lower end severe threat. As afternoon progresses,
if atmosphere gets a chance to recover after the morning convection,
NAM suggests late afternoon/early evening storms would become
surface based with ample shear and instability to bring severe
storms. HRRR and others indicates storms forming along the dryline
in south central Kansas. Those storms would have the potential to
move into our western counties with a severe threat in the late
afternoon into evening hours, with all modes of severe weather
possible, including large hail, winds and isolated tornadoes
possible. This threat spreads east with time, with GFS spreading dry
slot back into the area from W to E overnight and ushering out most
of the storms by sunrise. Will have to watch for locally heavy
rainfall also as flow becomes more aligned north to south and has
frontal boundary near our northern counties.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
On Monday a strong shortwave will round the base of the main trough
axis and lift out over KS during the day. At the surface the dry
line will set up across central KS and be the focus for storm
development once the cap breaks. Steep mid level lapse rates will
accompany the shortwave, which should support surface based cape
around 3000 j/kg. The main issue is that the deep layer shear is sub
marginal to support much organized severe convection. Given the high
instability though localized hail and damaging wind will be possible
in the afternoon and evening. The decrease in the instability during
the late evening should cause ongoing storms to weaken. The models
show that the kicker wave over the northern Rockies will absorb the
initial wave over the northern plains. This may keep the dry line
from progressing eastward much by Tuesday, although most locations
should remain dry with subsidence behind the wave. Despite that
model sounding show an uncapped environment on Tuesday afternoon the
lack of forcing for ascent should limit any activity. On Tuesday
night a cold front will push into KS as the main system tracks over
the northern plains. The models are fairly consistent with
developing elevated showers mainly across north central KS Wednesday
morning. The environment tries to keep some instability ahead of
this front therefore could not rule out a few storms as well.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR prevails through the period while convection remains west of
terminals through sunrise. Expect scattered TSRA to develop to the
southwest, nearing terminals in the 15Z to 18Z time frame. There
may be a temporary break in the afternoon before the next round
of TSRA develops in the late afternoon. These are more likely to
bring widespread precipitation with MVFR conditions likely aft
00Z. Some guidance is hinting at IFR with the residual showers
through 06Z.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Prieto
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1203 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
WARM SECTOR REALLY STRUGGLING TO INITIATE CONVECTION AND DESPITE
WHAT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN INDICATING...PROBABILITIES OF A
LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG DRY LINE APPEAR TO BE DECREASING.
STILL THINK REASONABLE CHANCE FOR MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF WARM FRONT...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF POPS CONSIDERABLY SOUTH
OF I-70.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 452 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SHORT DURATION HIGH WIND
EVENT BEHIND THE DRY LINE IN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO.
STARTING TO SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AHEAD OF DRY
LINE AND EXPECT FOR THIS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THIS AREA NOT
NEARLY AS BACKED AS NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA...TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE LESS AND DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO ADJUST CURRENT
WATCHES. HAVE INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT AND TRIED TO BE A BIT
MORE DETERMINISTIC AS THIS NEXT AREA OF STORMS DEVELOP AS EXPECT A
FAIRLY SOLID LINE TO DEVELOP BY 00Z.
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 45-50 KT WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR AS
DRYLINE BEGINS TO MOVE. BASED ON LAA AND NEARBY
OBSERVATIONS...WINDOW FOR SIGNIFICANT WINDS LIMITED AND PEAK
VALUES TOPPING OUT AROUND 48 KTS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN ANY
WIDESPREAD PERSISTENT HIGH WIND THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OUT
OF EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AS LIFT
OVERCOMES THE CAPPING MECHANISM THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL HOWEVER THERE IS AN
INCREASED FAVORABILITY FOR TORNADOES IN YUMA...KIT CARSON...AND
CHEYENNE CO COUNTIES THROUGH AROUND 01Z. DRIER AIR WILL BE PULLED
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY EXPECTED EAST OF HWY 27 AS A
WELL DEVELOPED DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUNDAYS THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD. WIDE SPREAD LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE CLOSED LOW SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A DRY LINE WILL BE
NEAR THE HIGHWAY 27 CORRIDOR. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AS A RESULT. FURTHER
WEST A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE DRY
LINE...BUT THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY AND ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
EAST OF THE DRY LINE SUNDAY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THE WRAP
AROUND CIRCULATION OF THE SURFACE LOW BETWEEN THE DRY LINE AND THE
COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE DEW POINTS TO INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY STORMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO BECOME STRONGER.
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SEMI-STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
BORDER OF THE AREA. WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS STILL POOLED ALONG THE
FRONT...STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 10-15 KTS. DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST.
MONDAY NIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH IT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH. FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAINFALL WITH IT THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
FOR 06Z TAFS...AREA OF SMOKE HAS BEEN REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT MCK
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINING
THE SAME SEE NO REASON WHY IT WILL IMPROVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE VISIBILITY FORECAST. DO THINK
THAT AREA OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AS MOISTURE POOLS IN EASTERN
CWA...SO EXPECT VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 3 MILES TO MAINTAIN ITSELF
THROUGH SUNRISE. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 2000 FT CEILINGS AT GLD AS
SMALL FINGER OF LOW STRATUS WRAPPING AROUND LOW CIRCULATION...BUT
EXPECT THIS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
324 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
SHOWERS WERE STILL PLENTIFUL GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NE
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED A WHILE
LONGER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA...AND WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PRECIP
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY
IN OUR NORTH FOR LATE THIS MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
WEAKENING SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HAVE RAISED POPS FOR TODAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT STILL ONLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THROUGH THE MORNING AS EVEN THE
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DRIED UP. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...JUST ENTERING KENTUCKY. EARLIER A COUPLE OF
STORM CLUSTERS...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS...PASSED THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE LEFT STILL RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. WHILE THE SKIES ARE COVERED BY MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...THERE IS A LOWER BATCH JUST NORTH OF JKL SHOWING UP IN
SOME OF THE OBS AND AFFECTING THE TAFS THERE. ALSO...IN PLACES
THE CLOUDS ARE THIN ENOUGH THAT PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE MILD AND NOT TOO FAR FROM
60 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR REGARDLESS OF ELEVATION. DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKEWISE RUNNING ON THE MOIST SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 55 TO 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT EAST KENTUCKY
SQUEEZED BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOME RIDGING TO THE SOUTH TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE BROAD
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL START TO OPEN UP ALLOWING
ENERGY TO SPILL EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE RIDGE SLIPS PAST TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW CARRYING ESCAPING ENERGY PACKETS INTO OUR AREA...
THE STRONGEST OF THESE ARRIVING LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT WILL AGAIN FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND WITH PARTICULAR
FOCUS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY DESPITE THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA. A LACK
OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LIMITED SFC CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TO LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TODAY TO JUST SHOWERS...THANKS TO A CAP
BETWEEN 750 AND 800 MBS PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. A SMALL THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY RETURNS
NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
A RETURN TO OUR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NORM...
ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG. FOR MONDAY...WE WILL BE BACK
IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF A FAIRLY DEEP
SFC LOW THE WELL TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD
WITH SMALL TO MODERATE CAPES AND SUB ZERO LIS. ACCORDINGLY...
HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST
ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN
THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS TO MAKE THEM
ADHERE MORE TOWARD STANDARD DIURNAL PEAKS AND VALLEYS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AND
SMALL SCALE FEATURES THIS MORNING LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
ENERGY IS EJECTED OUT OF SOUTHWEST LOW WHICH TRACKS ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WINDOW. THE
CORE OF THE PARENT LOW MAKES IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE
PHASING WITH ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA...BC. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION AND GRADUALLY SHEARS OUT BY LATE WED. THEREAFTER
THE LARGER PHASED SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES AFFECTING
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE FIRST SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SECOND DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SATURDAY.
AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE COMMONWEALTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SOUTHWEST TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST OF TWO AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL THEN PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AS A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER...SECOND BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND
IMPULSE WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS OUR AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT BEST
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES AND SFC
BOUNDARIES...GENERALLY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AFTER PASSAGE
OF THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT DAILY HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL EVEN
CLIMB TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK. DAILY HIGHS DROP BACK DOWN INTO
THE 60S BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
LOCALIZED MVFR VSBY WAS PRESENT IN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...
CONDITIONS WERE VFR. THE SHOWERS WERE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST...
AND WILL LEAVE VFR EVERYWHERE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING. A FEW
MORE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING...BUT ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM THEM SHOULD BE LOCALIZED
AND SHORT-LIVED. OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG
AROUND DAWN...NO OTHER WEATHER RESTRICTIONS AREA EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1226 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
SHOWERS WERE STILL PLENTIFUL GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NE
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED A WHILE
LONGER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA...AND WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PRECIP
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY
IN OUR NORTH FOR LATE THIS MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
WEAKENING SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HAVE RAISED POPS FOR TODAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT STILL ONLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THROUGH THE MORNING AS EVEN THE
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DRIED UP. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...JUST ENTERING KENTUCKY. EARLIER A COUPLE OF
STORM CLUSTERS...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS...PASSED THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE LEFT STILL RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. WHILE THE SKIES ARE COVERED BY MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...THERE IS A LOWER BATCH JUST NORTH OF JKL SHOWING UP IN
SOME OF THE OBS AND AFFECTING THE TAFS THERE. ALSO...IN PLACES
THE CLOUDS ARE THIN ENOUGH THAT PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE MILD AND NOT TOO FAR FROM
60 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR REGARDLESS OF ELEVATION. DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKEWISE RUNNING ON THE MOIST SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 55 TO 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT EAST KENTUCKY
SQUEEZED BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOME RIDGING TO THE SOUTH TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE BROAD
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL START TO OPEN UP ALLOWING
ENERGY TO SPILL EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE RIDGE SLIPS PAST TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW CARRYING ESCAPING ENERGY PACKETS INTO OUR AREA...
THE STRONGEST OF THESE ARRIVING LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT WILL AGAIN FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND WITH PARTICULAR
FOCUS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY DESPITE THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA. A LACK
OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LIMITED SFC CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TO LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TODAY TO JUST SHOWERS...THANKS TO A CAP
BETWEEN 750 AND 800 MBS PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. A SMALL THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY RETURNS
NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
A RETURN TO OUR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NORM...
ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG. FOR MONDAY...WE WILL BE BACK
IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF A FAIRLY DEEP
SFC LOW THE WELL TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD
WITH SMALL TO MODERATE CAPES AND SUB ZERO LIS. ACCORDINGLY...
HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST
ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN
THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS TO MAKE THEM
ADHERE MORE TOWARD STANDARD DIURNAL PEAKS AND VALLEYS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AND
SMALL SCALE FEATURES THIS MORNING LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
ENERGY IS EJECTED OUT OF SOUTHWEST LOW WHICH TRACKS ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WINDOW. THE
CORE OF THE PARENT LOW MAKES IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE
PHASING WITH ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA...BC. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION AND GRADUALLY SHEARS OUT BY LATE WED. THEREAFTER
THE LARGER PHASED SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES AFFECTING
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE FIRST SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SECOND DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SATURDAY.
AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE COMMONWEALTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SOUTHWEST TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST OF TWO AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL THEN PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AS A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER...SECOND BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND
IMPULSE WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS OUR AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT BEST
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES AND SFC
BOUNDARIES...GENERALLY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AFTER PASSAGE
OF THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT DAILY HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL EVEN
CLIMB TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK. DAILY HIGHS DROP BACK DOWN INTO
THE 60S BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
A BAND OF LOW IFR OR LESS CIGS ALONG WITH POCKETS OF MVFR VIS WILL
DRY UP AND LIFT BY MID MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED THOUGH A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER EAST KENTUCKY.
WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY SOME MVFR VIS OR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY. THROUGH IT ALL...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA...AND WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PRECIP
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY
IN OUR NORTH FOR LATE THIS MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
WEAKENING SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HAVE RAISED POPS FOR TODAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT STILL ONLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THROUGH THE MORNING AS EVEN THE
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DRIED UP. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...JUST ENTERING KENTUCKY. EARLIER A COUPLE OF
STORM CLUSTERS...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS...PASSED THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE LEFT STILL RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. WHILE THE SKIES ARE COVERED BY MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...THERE IS A LOWER BATCH JUST NORTH OF JKL SHOWING UP IN
SOME OF THE OBS AND AFFECTING THE TAFS THERE. ALSO...IN PLACES
THE CLOUDS ARE THIN ENOUGH THAT PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE MILD AND NOT TOO FAR FROM
60 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR REGARDLESS OF ELEVATION. DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKEWISE RUNNING ON THE MOIST SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 55 TO 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT EAST KENTUCKY
SQUEEZED BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOME RIDGING TO THE SOUTH TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE BROAD
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL START TO OPEN UP ALLOWING
ENERGY TO SPILL EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE RIDGE SLIPS PAST TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW CARRYING ESCAPING ENERGY PACKETS INTO OUR AREA...
THE STRONGEST OF THESE ARRIVING LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT WILL AGAIN FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND WITH PARTICULAR
FOCUS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY DESPITE THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA. A LACK
OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LIMITED SFC CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TO LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TODAY TO JUST SHOWERS...THANKS TO A CAP
BETWEEN 750 AND 800 MBS PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. A SMALL THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY RETURNS
NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
A RETURN TO OUR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NORM...
ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG. FOR MONDAY...WE WILL BE BACK
IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF A FAIRLY DEEP
SFC LOW THE WELL TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD
WITH SMALL TO MODERATE CAPES AND SUB ZERO LIS. ACCORDINGLY...
HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST
ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN
THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS TO MAKE THEM
ADHERE MORE TOWARD STANDARD DIURNAL PEAKS AND VALLEYS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AND
SMALL SCALE FEATURES THIS MORNING LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
ENERGY IS EJECTED OUT OF SOUTHWEST LOW WHICH TRACKS ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WINDOW. THE
CORE OF THE PARENT LOW MAKES IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE
PHASING WITH ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA...BC. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION AND GRADUALLY SHEARS OUT BY LATE WED. THEREAFTER
THE LARGER PHASED SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES AFFECTING
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE FIRST SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SECOND DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SATURDAY.
AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE COMMONWEALTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SOUTHWEST TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST OF TWO AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL THEN PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AS A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER...SECOND BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND
IMPULSE WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS OUR AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT BEST
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES AND SFC
BOUNDARIES...GENERALLY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AFTER PASSAGE
OF THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT DAILY HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL EVEN
CLIMB TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK. DAILY HIGHS DROP BACK DOWN INTO
THE 60S BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
A BAND OF LOW IFR OR LESS CIGS ALONG WITH POCKETS OF MVFR VIS WILL
DRY UP AND LIFT BY MID MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED THOUGH A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER EAST KENTUCKY.
WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY SOME MVFR VIS OR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY. THROUGH IT ALL...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
933 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
WEAKENING SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HAVE RAISED POPS FOR TODAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT STILL ONLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THROUGH THE MORNING AS EVEN THE
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DRIED UP. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...JUST ENTERING KENTUCKY. EARLIER A COUPLE OF
STORM CLUSTERS...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS...PASSED THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE LEFT STILL RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. WHILE THE SKIES ARE COVERED BY MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...THERE IS A LOWER BATCH JUST NORTH OF JKL SHOWING UP IN
SOME OF THE OBS AND AFFECTING THE TAFS THERE. ALSO...IN PLACES
THE CLOUDS ARE THIN ENOUGH THAT PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE MILD AND NOT TOO FAR FROM
60 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR REGARDLESS OF ELEVATION. DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKEWISE RUNNING ON THE MOIST SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 55 TO 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT EAST KENTUCKY
SQUEEZED BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOME RIDGING TO THE SOUTH TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE BROAD
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL START TO OPEN UP ALLOWING
ENERGY TO SPILL EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE RIDGE SLIPS PAST TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW CARRYING ESCAPING ENERGY PACKETS INTO OUR AREA...
THE STRONGEST OF THESE ARRIVING LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT WILL AGAIN FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND WITH PARTICULAR
FOCUS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY DESPITE THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA. A LACK
OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LIMITED SFC CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TO LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TODAY TO JUST SHOWERS...THANKS TO A CAP
BETWEEN 750 AND 800 MBS PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. A SMALL THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY RETURNS
NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
A RETURN TO OUR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NORM...
ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG. FOR MONDAY...WE WILL BE BACK
IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF A FAIRLY DEEP
SFC LOW THE WELL TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD
WITH SMALL TO MODERATE CAPES AND SUB ZERO LIS. ACCORDINGLY...
HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST
ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN
THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS TO MAKE THEM
ADHERE MORE TOWARD STANDARD DIURNAL PEAKS AND VALLEYS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AND
SMALL SCALE FEATURES THIS MORNING LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
ENERGY IS EJECTED OUT OF SOUTHWEST LOW WHICH TRACKS ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WINDOW. THE
CORE OF THE PARENT LOW MAKES IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE
PHASING WITH ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA...BC. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION AND GRADUALLY SHEARS OUT BY LATE WED. THEREAFTER
THE LARGER PHASED SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES AFFECTING
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE FIRST SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SECOND DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SATURDAY.
AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE COMMONWEALTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SOUTHWEST TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST OF TWO AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL THEN PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AS A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER...SECOND BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND
IMPULSE WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS OUR AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT BEST
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES AND SFC
BOUNDARIES...GENERALLY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AFTER PASSAGE
OF THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT DAILY HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL EVEN
CLIMB TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK. DAILY HIGHS DROP BACK DOWN INTO
THE 60S BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
A BAND OF LOW IFR OR LESS CIGS ALONG WITH POCKETS OF MVFR VIS WILL
DRY UP AND LIFT BY MID MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED THOUGH A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER EAST KENTUCKY.
WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY SOME MVFR VIS OR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY. THROUGH IT ALL...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THROUGH THE MORNING AS EVEN THE
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DRIED UP. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...JUST ENTERING KENTUCKY. EARLIER A COUPLE OF
STORM CLUSTERS...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS...PASSED THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE LEFT STILL RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. WHILE THE SKIES ARE COVERED BY MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...THERE IS A LOWER BATCH JUST NORTH OF JKL SHOWING UP IN
SOME OF THE OBS AND AFFECTING THE TAFS THERE. ALSO...IN PLACES
THE CLOUDS ARE THIN ENOUGH THAT PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE MILD AND NOT TOO FAR FROM
60 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR REGARDLESS OF ELEVATION. DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKEWISE RUNNING ON THE MOIST SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 55 TO 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT EAST KENTUCKY
SQUEEZED BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOME RIDGING TO THE SOUTH TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE BROAD
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL START TO OPEN UP ALLOWING
ENERGY TO SPILL EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE RIDGE SLIPS PAST TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW CARRYING ESCAPING ENERGY PACKETS INTO OUR AREA...
THE STRONGEST OF THESE ARRIVING LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT WILL AGAIN FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND WITH PARTICULAR
FOCUS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY DESPITE THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA. A LACK
OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LIMITED SFC CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TO LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TODAY TO JUST SHOWERS...THANKS TO A CAP
BETWEEN 750 AND 800 MBS PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. A SMALL THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY RETURNS
NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
A RETURN TO OUR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NORM...
ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG. FOR MONDAY...WE WILL BE BACK
IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF A FAIRLY DEEP
SFC LOW THE WELL TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD
WITH SMALL TO MODERATE CAPES AND SUB ZERO LIS. ACCORDINGLY...
HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST
ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN
THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS TO MAKE THEM
ADHERE MORE TOWARD STANDARD DIURNAL PEAKS AND VALLEYS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AND
SMALL SCALE FEATURES THIS MORNING LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
ENERGY IS EJECTED OUT OF SOUTHWEST LOW WHICH TRACKS ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WINDOW. THE
CORE OF THE PARENT LOW MAKES IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE
PHASING WITH ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA...BC. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION AND GRADUALLY SHEARS OUT BY LATE WED. THEREAFTER
THE LARGER PHASED SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES AFFECTING
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE FIRST SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SECOND DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SATURDAY.
AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE COMMONWEALTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SOUTHWEST TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST OF TWO AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL THEN PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AS A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER...SECOND BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND
IMPULSE WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS OUR AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT BEST
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES AND SFC
BOUNDARIES...GENERALLY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AFTER PASSAGE
OF THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT DAILY HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL EVEN
CLIMB TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK. DAILY HIGHS DROP BACK DOWN INTO
THE 60S BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
A BAND OF LOW IFR OR LESS CIGS ALONG WITH POCKETS OF MVFR VIS WILL
DRY UP AND LIFT BY MID MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED THOUGH A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER EAST KENTUCKY.
WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY SOME MVFR VIS OR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY. THROUGH IT ALL...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...JUST ENTERING KENTUCKY. EARLIER A COUPLE OF
STORM CLUSTERS...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS...PASSED THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE LEFT STILL RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. WHILE THE SKIES ARE COVERED BY MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...THERE IS A LOWER BATCH JUST NORTH OF JKL SHOWING UP IN
SOME OF THE OBS AND AFFECTING THE TAFS THERE. ALSO...IN PLACES
THE CLOUDS ARE THIN ENOUGH THAT PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE MILD AND NOT TOO FAR FROM
60 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR REGARDLESS OF ELEVATION. DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKEWISE RUNNING ON THE MOIST SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 55 TO 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT EAST KENTUCKY
SQUEEZED BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOME RIDGING TO THE SOUTH TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE BROAD
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL START TO OPEN UP ALLOWING
ENERGY TO SPILL EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE RIDGE SLIPS PAST TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW CARRYING ESCAPING ENERGY PACKETS INTO OUR AREA...
THE STRONGEST OF THESE ARRIVING LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT WILL AGAIN FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND WITH PARTICULAR
FOCUS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY DESPITE THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA. A LACK
OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LIMITED SFC CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TO LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TODAY TO JUST SHOWERS...THANKS TO A CAP
BETWEEN 750 AND 800 MBS PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. A SMALL THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY RETURNS
NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
A RETURN TO OUR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NORM...
ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG. FOR MONDAY...WE WILL BE BACK
IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF A FAIRLY DEEP
SFC LOW THE WELL TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD
WITH SMALL TO MODERATE CAPES AND SUB ZERO LIS. ACCORDINGLY...
HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST
ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN
THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS TO MAKE THEM
ADHERE MORE TOWARD STANDARD DIURNAL PEAKS AND VALLEYS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AND
SMALL SCALE FEATURES THIS MORNING LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
ENERGY IS EJECTED OUT OF SOUTHWEST LOW WHICH TRACKS ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WINDOW. THE
CORE OF THE PARENT LOW MAKES IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE
PHASING WITH ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA...BC. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION AND GRADUALLY SHEARS OUT BY LATE WED. THEREAFTER
THE LARGER PHASED SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES AFFECTING
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE FIRST SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SECOND DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SATURDAY.
AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE COMMONWEALTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SOUTHWEST TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST OF TWO AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL THEN PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AS A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER...SECOND BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND
IMPULSE WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS OUR AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT BEST
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES AND SFC
BOUNDARIES...GENERALLY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AFTER PASSAGE
OF THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT DAILY HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL EVEN
CLIMB TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK. DAILY HIGHS DROP BACK DOWN INTO
THE 60S BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
FOR THE MOST PART...CIGS WILL BE ABOVE 3K FEET AGL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER EAST KENTUCKY. WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...SOME MVFR VIS OR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. THROUGH IT
ALL...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
220 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
THE EARLIER ORGANIZED STORMS HAVE WOUND DOWN FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY LEAVING BEHIND WANING LIGHTER SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE ADDITIONAL BATCHES OF MAINLY SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA. DO
EXPECT THESE TO FADE OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE...AS WELL. DID ADJUST THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS PER THE
LATEST CONSSHORT GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. ALSO SENT OUT A
NEW SET OF ZONES AND HWO DROPPING THE WATCH EARLIER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
MADE A NUMBER OF ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH REGARDS TO
ONGOING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES...WEATHER GRIDS...AND QPF GRIDS WERE ALL UPDATED TO
BETTER REFLECT THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORM AS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS BECOME SUBSEVERE OVER THE PAST
30 MINUTES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE STORMS FOR SIGNS OF
REINTENSIFICATION...BUT AT THIS TIME THE STORMS ARE LOOKING NON
THREATENING. THESE STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BY
12Z SUNDAY. THE UPDATED FORECAST HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GRADUALLY MEANDERING ACROSS THE HUDSON AND
JAMES BAY REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PASS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION
TO END THE WEEKEND...BEFORE STARTING TO RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WHERE
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT...BUT SHOULD PEAK THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WHEN UPPER FORCING INCREASES.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS WHAT BECOMES OF
THE CONVECTION APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WHAT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION CONTINUES...BUT RATHER DEEP
MIXING IS OFFSETTING THIS SOMEWHAT AS WELL. SBCAPES AND MUCAPES
ARE GENERALLY NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION
THOUGH WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND MOIST ADVECTION MAY REACH 1000
J/KG BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT WIND FIELDS
ALOFT LEADS TO A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE WOULD POINT TOWARD
THE CONVECTION APPROACHING THE AREA AFFECTING THE CWA IN A COUPLE
OF TIER OF COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING. POPS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWA AS A RESULT FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...LOCATIONS
NEAR THE TN BORDER WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. AS
ALREADY NOTED THE HIGHEST POPS...LIKELY...WERE USED IN MOST
LOCATIONS FOR THIS EVENING OR THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
IN MOST LOCATIONS. VALLEY FOG COULD BECOME A CONCERN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT PENDING THE DEGREE OF CLEARING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.
A NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BOUNDARY STARTING TO PARK ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF I 64 TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE TN
BORDER. LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
SINCE YESTERDAY. AT THIS POINT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE...WITH A TYPICAL DECLINE WITH PASSING TIME. FOR DETAILS...A
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
AS THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIP MAINLY NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS LEAVES JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. A LARGE BUT WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH ITS PASSING COINCIDING WITH AN INCREASED FLOW OFF OF
THE GULF. THIS WILL PRESENT AN INCREASE IN POP FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A CORRESPONDING DROP IN POP. AFTER THIS...A LARGE UPPER
LOW ROLLING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW WILL HAVE A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. THE TROUGH AND FRONT SHOULD
APPROACH ON THURSDAY AND MOVE PAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
REPRESENTS ANOTHER PEAK IN POP. BEHIND THIS...MODELS SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST BRING US A DRIER AIR MASS
ON FRIDAY. YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST AND DEEPENS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRINGS BACK ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
FOR THE MOST PART...CIGS WILL BE ABOVE 3K FEET AGL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER EAST KENTUCKY. WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...SOME MVFR VIS OR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. THROUGH IT
ALL...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
732 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER NAMERICA WITH UPR RDG STRETCHING FM MANITOBA INTO THE
WRN GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO OVER SE CANADA...AN UPR TROF OVER
WRN CANADA/THE PAC NW AND ANOTHER SRN BRANCH CLOSED LO LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD THRU THE PLAINS. SFC HI PRES RDG EXTENDS FM HUDSON BAY
INTO ERN UPR MI. EXCEPT FOR SOME HI CLDS MAINLY NEAR THE WI
BORDER...SKIES ARE SUNNY WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB
AND ESPECIALLY THE APX RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS ONLY 0.18 INCH.
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 60S/NEAR 70 AWAY FM THE MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LKS ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE H85
TEMPS ARE APRCHG 7C...AND MIN RH HAS FALLEN AS LO AS 20-25 PCT WITH
DIURNAL MIXING. LOOKING TO THE SW...THICKER CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
PLAINS SRN BRANCH SHRTWV ARE ADVANCING SLOWLY NEWD THRU MN/WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS MAINLY ON FIRE WX ISSUES
AND NEED FOR FIRE WX HEADLINES ON TUE.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH AXIS OF VERY DRY AIR IS FCST TO PERSIST OVER THE CWA
AND MAINTAIN MOCLR SKIES...A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO
DOMINATE AS THE SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E. THE
STEADIER ESE FLOW WL HOLD LO TEMPS HIER THAN LAST NGT. EXPECT THE
LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE FAR ERN CWA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING HI
WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WL BE A BIT WEAKER. OVERALL...RH RECOVER
SHOULD BE POOR.
TUE...SRN BRANCH SHRTWV IS FCST TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NE BUT WEAKEN
AS IT RUNS INTO A PERSISTENT UPR RDG OVER NW ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH CLD
COVER IS LIKELY TO INCRS SW-NE...PREFER THE MODELS WHICH KEEP ANY
PCPN TO THE SW THRU 00Z WED GIVEN FCST PERSISTENCE OF LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY RETREATING SFC HI PRES/VERY DRY 12Z APX RAOB
THAT WL BE SOURCE AIRMASS. WITH SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BTWN FALLING
MSLP TO THE SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APRCHG ALBEIT WEAKENING SRN
BRANCH DISTURANCE AND THE HI TO THE ENE...H925 ESE WINDS ARE FCST TO
REACH 20-25 KTS...SUPPORTING SFC WINDS GUSTS 20-25 MPH...AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 30 MPH. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 6-8C
RANGE...MAX TEMPS WL AT LEAST APRCH 70 AWAY FM LK MODERATION. TENDED
TOWARD THE HI END OF GUIDANCE AWAY FM THE LK COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN
A DRIER SCENARIO WITH JUST MAINLY HI CLDS EXPECTED. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH THE FIRE WX CUSTOMERS AND CONSIDERING THE DRYNESS
OF SHORT TERM FUELS BEFORE GREENUP/POOR RH RECOVERY TNGT AS WELL AS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED HUDSON BAY HI WX PATTERN/TIME OF YEAR AND
DRYNESS OF SOURCE 12Z APX RAOB...OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR
15Z-24Z DESPITE CONCERNS OFFICIAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 534 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE BY MID-LATE THIS WEEK
AS A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA WITH BUILDING 5H
RIDGE HEIGHTS INTO NW CANADA/SE ALASKA INDUCING AN AMPLIFIED AND
PERSISTENT TROUGH DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NE CONUS...INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIDGING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK OVER UPPER MI BUT THEN AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A
BROAD...AMPLIFIED TROUGH TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION TEMPS WILL FALL
WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
WILL BRING NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU. AFTER THAT...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH BASE OF
THE BROAD TROUGH WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH SCT PCPN ACROSS
UPPER MI THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS
AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND.
BEGINNING TUE NIGHT AND WED...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY E-SE
FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER WRN QUEBEC SHOULD MAINTAIN MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH COULD MAYBE
BRING A FEW SPRINKLES INTO THE FAR SCNTRL CWA BUT NOTHING MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WL BE WARRANTED.
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE WRN LAKES BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES E WED NIGHT AS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL
CANADA. A SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE FM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. IT IS THAT WAVE ALONG WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SFC TO H85 CONVERGENCE
ALONG INITIAL COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT WL BRING A BROKEN BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. MODELS INCLUDING SREF
INDICATE BULK OF SFC AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING WELL SOUTH
OF CWA SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TSRA WITH THE SHRA. SINCE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE/PVA STAYS WELL TO NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
SECONDARY WAVE LIFTS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...SHOWERS
WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH FARTHER EAST AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS ACROSS
CWA. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DEPICT TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BE WELL UNDER A QUARTER INCH
FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE FAR WEST ALONG TRACK OF SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE. SO IN SHORT...NOT MUCH RELIEF IS EXPECTED FROM RECENT DRY
STRETCH.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT WILL PUSH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR FROM CENTRAL CANADA BEGINNING FRI. COLD AIR LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH MODELS INDICATING
COLDEST 8H TEMPS OF -8 TO POSSIBLY -10C OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SAT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF SCT SHOWERS TO THE CWA WHICH PERHAPS COULD BECOME
NUMEROUS AT TIMES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...AS TEMPS SHOULD GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. COLD TEMPS WILL ALSO LIKELY SUPPORT
SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND IN
EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION. MODEL RESOLUTION/TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BROAD/AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE POORLY HANDLED
LATE WEEK/WEEKEND TIME FRAME SO NO MORE THAN CHC POPS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON SUNDAY...SO IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES LATER FCSTS MAY NEED TO BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY
AT SOME POINT FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY EDGING N
INTO UPPER MI THRU TUE...LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY...ALLOWING
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
DAYTIME HEATING/DEEPENING MIXING WILL RESULT IN GUSTINESS TO THE
WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND
TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM
THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS
TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. WEAKENING GRAD WITH
HIGH PRES RIDGEBUILDING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW NW WINDS
TO SUBSIDESOME ON SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR MIZ001>015-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
353 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CONFLUENT NW
FLOW ALF OVER THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO NEAR HUDSON BAY
AND AN UPR RDG EXTENDING FM THE NRN PLAINS THRU CENTRAL CANADA.
UNDER THIS CONFLUENT FLOW ALF...SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER FAR NW
ONTARIO IS EXTENDING A RDG AXIS TOWARD UPR MI. LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON
THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS UNDER THIS RDG AXIS IS RESULTING IN DRY WX
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DIURNAL CU. BUT INCOMING AIRMASS IS
QUITE DRY PER 12Z YPL RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS 0.22 INCH.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS WITH DRY HI PRES
FCST TO DOMINATE. WITH PERSISTENT DRYNESS BEFORE GREENUP...FIRE WX
ISSUES WL BE A CONCERN ON MON AFTN.
TNGT...EXPECT MOCLR SKIES WITH DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING...A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR A CHILLY OVERNGT. THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR OVER
THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA CLOSER TO WHERE THE HI PRES RDG IS FCST TO
BUILD AND BRING THE LIGHTEST WINDS. WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS IN THIS AREA. A LIGHT SE WIND OVER THE FAR W
UNDER A BIT SHARPER PRES GRADIENT ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE RDG AXIS
MAY LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP DROP THERE.
MON...HI PRES RDG AXIS WL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE ERN CWA. H85
TEMPS ARE FCST TO REBOUND TO BTWN ABOUT 4C OVER THE E TO NEAR 7C
OVER THE W...WHERE A STEADY SE FLOW IS FCST TO DOWNSLOPE. MAX TEMPS
IN THIS AREA WL AT LEAST APRCH 70. STEADIER SE WINDS IN THIS AREA WL
ALSO ACCENTUATE FIRE WX CONCERNS AS DAYTIME MIXING ALLOWS MIN RH TO
DIP TOWARD 20 TO 25 PCT. FORTUNATELY...THIS AREA WHERE THE SE WINDS
WL BE STRONGEST PICKED UP A BIT MORE RA ON FRI NGT. WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND E SHOULD BE LIGHTER AND LIMIT WILD FIRE POTENTIAL IN
THOSE AREAS DESPITE MORE RECENT DRYNESS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BRINGING A
WARMER AIRMASS INTO WED AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE W. HIGHS
TUE IN THE 60S AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORES INCREASE TO MID 60S
TO MID 70S ON WED. THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE TURNING COOLER AS
THAT UPPER LOW MOVES IN...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S SAT.
LOW RH VALUES WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
E...DOWN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT INTERIOR W...TUE AFTERNOON AS WINDS
GUST TO 20-25MPH. RH IMPROVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AREA SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP SW OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE WED. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING SOME PRECIP BRUSHING THE WI BORDER MON NIGHT INTO WED...BUT
JUST HOW FAR THE SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT INTO THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
WILL BE TRICKY. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW END AND CONFINED TO NEAR
THE WI BORDER THROUGH LATE WED. WED NIGHT AND THU LOOK TO SEE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SFC COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. ALTHOUGH THE GFS ONLY
HAVE SOME AREAS SEEING A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF...THE ECMWF HAS ALL
AREAS WITH AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH. FRI INTO SUN COULD HAVE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR INSIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIP AS
850MB TEMPS DROP TO OR BELOW -7C. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONG W WINDS OVER THE KEWEENAW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI...SO WILL BE
MONITORING THAT TOO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING.
SOME GUSTY WINDS AT SAW WL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND CLOSER APRCH OF SFC HI PRES RDG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS THRU TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES
BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL BECOME ENE UP 15 TO 25 KTS ON MON
AFTERNOON/NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES GRADIENT ON
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HI PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND TERRAIN
INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE
HI SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LO PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SW...THE
FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LO SHIFTS TO THE NE AND
INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS ON THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT TO
THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
138 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...
STILL EXPECTING A SEASONABLY COOL AND BREEZY MOTHER`S DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL SHORT OF RED FLAG THRESHOLDS.
MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWED WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LAKE
HURON THROUGH THE TIP OF THE MITT. TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH TODAY AS
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OVERSPREADS REGION. MAY SUN ANGLE
AND WEAK CAA (WITH 850 MB TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 0C)
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP MIXING AND LOCALLY GUSTY NW BREEZES
TOPPING OUT AROUND 20 MPH. SIMILARLY, SUNSHINE AND MIXING WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 50S N/W AREAS AND LOW-MID 60S S/E AREAS
AS DEW POINTS FALL THROUGH THE 20S. MIN RH/S WILL LOCALLY FALL
TO 18-23% - PARTICULARLY ALONG/EAST OF US-127 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH
OF M-32 - THOUGH LIKELY EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.
OTHERWISE, LINGERING MID CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
FADE. SOME HIGH BASE CU WILL CONTINUE TO FORM, ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE BIG LAKES ACROSS E UPPER AND NE LOWER. HRRR IS SUPPORTING
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LOWER AND
THE THUMB REGION. AT THIS TIME, DO NOT EXPECT ANY LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER OUR SE AREAS - BUT IF ANY FORM THIS IS MOST LIKELY AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND
FROST/FREEZE POSSIBILITIES FOR MONDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CHALLENGE: FROST FOR MONDAY MORNING
OVERVIEW...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE MOVING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING DOWN THE NW FLOW
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE OMEGA BLOCK HAS FALLEN APART
REPLACED BY A REX BLOCK IN THE WEST, AND A 500 MB LOW OVER JAMES
BAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS AFFECTING LOCATIONS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
TODAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION, LOOKED FOR ANALOGOUS
TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY WITH THE PATTERN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE AIR MASS OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES, IT LOOKS LIKE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE MODEL SOUNDING SHOW
PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN, ESPECIALLY AS IT GETS BREEZY AGAIN,
BUT NOT AS BREEZY AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. SO WILL EXPECT THAT WE AGAIN
WILL HAVE MIN RH VALUES OF BETWEEN 20-25% WITH SOME LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST INTO THE 15-20% RANGE WITH THE MIXING OVER
DRY SAND.
TONIGHT... WITH THE LOW DEWPOINTS, THE CLEAR SKIES, THE CALM WIND
AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 0C TO +1C OVER MOST OF THE AREA,
WILL EXPECT THAT WE WILL RADIATIONALLY COOL TO BELOW FREEZING. WITH
THE FROST/FREEZE SERVICE STARTING UP ON MONDAY, WILL INTRODUCE FROST
INTO THE GRIDS FOR MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY
START COMING BACK UP BEFORE SUNRISE, SO WILL GO WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND FREEZING TO THE MID 30S THAT WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT
WARM AS WE GET CLOSER TO 00Z. WILL PUT PATCHY FROST IN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE WINDS AND THE HOW
LONG WE ACTUALLY ARE ABLE TO GET FROST TO FORM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
LONG TERM (MONDAY AND TUESDAY)
IMPACTS: COLD MONDAY OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET INTO FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: HEIGHT RISES WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF CUTOFF LOW OVER
NE/IA. THE BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MOST OF SUNDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE PAC NW SUNDAY NIGHT...CATCHING UP TO AND
PHASING WITH THE CUTOFF OVER THE PLAINS GOING INTO MID-WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN OCCLUDING SFC LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION MID-WEEK. THE PHASED LOWS WILL TRACK MORE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...DEEPENING ANOTHER SFC LOW ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER WHICH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...BUT DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE ON THE HEELS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED
LOW.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
WITH FROST ADVISORY CONCERNS. NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY.
ASSOCIATED WEATHER: A RATHER DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY. ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS WILL LESSEN HOWEVER...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVERHEAD WILL LIGHTEN WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL GET
A BIT WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS THE HIGH HELPS TO SHUNT THE COLDER AIR
TO THE EAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH
BRINGS THE FIRST CHALLENGE OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...AIR MASS IS VERY
DRY...AND WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH MAY BRING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AND PUT SOME AREAS INTO FROST ADVISORY
TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING IN TUESDAY MORNING...AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD REALLY AFFECT JUST
HOW LOW TEMPS GET. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR CLOUDS TO BUILD SW TO
NE THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER IT WILL BE LATE MORNING FOR MOST BUT
THE FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THAT SAID...IF THINGS SPEED UP AND
CLOUDS GET IN EARLIER THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
ADVISORY LEVELS. BUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS FOR LATER CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AND LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. THIS MOISTURE ARRIVAL TIES
RIGHT INTO THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE...IF AND WHEN RAIN MIGHT
ARRIVE.
A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OCCLUDING LOW
MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS LOOKS TO BE INTO SW MI BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A
BAND OF ENHANCED VORTICITY ORIENTED NW TO SE THOUGH THE STATE IS
JUST CLIPPING THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA AND THROUGH GLADWIN COUNTY.
COMBINED WITH WAA ALONG THE FRONT...THERE IS SOME WEAK QG ASCENT IN
THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO SEE SHOWERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM LEELANAU TO ARENAC. WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH IF IT DOES ARRIVE.
EXTENDED... (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
WITH PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE OCCLUDING LOW DWINDLING...THE NEXT GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE ALONG A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
ATTACHED TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CANADA. THINGS
ALSO GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW...WITH
SOME COLD H8 AIR OVERHEAD. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE...BUT IT
IS ON THE EDGE OF SUPPORTING SOME (I DON/T WANT TO SAY IT) LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT OVER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD
AIR IN THESE SITUATIONS LATELY...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. A BIT OF TRIVIA...THE LATEST MEASURABLE SNOW FOR
GAYLORD ON RECORD IS MAY 17...THERE WAS 1.5 INCHES IN 1956.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
VFR THRU MONDAY. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...N/NW BREEZES BEHIND A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
PRESENTLY OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES BUILDS EWD ACROSS MICHIGAN. SCT
TO BKN HIGH BASED CU /BASES 6-8 KFT/ OVER NE LOWER MI WILL ALSO
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A BUBBLE HIGH DROPS INTO THE REGION
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP, AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL KICK UP NEAR
WHITEFISH BAY AND THE ST. MARY`S RIVER. AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING
THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF AND REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BBS
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...MAYHEW
AVIATION...BBS
MARINE...JSL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1243 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.AVIATION...
DRY LOW LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AS SCT-BKN 8-10KFT DECK
SWEEPS OVER AREA WITHIN AREA OF JET SUPPORT ASSOICATED WITH DECENT
SHORTWAVE SKIRTING THE AREA TO THE NORTH. WNW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20
KNOTS OR SO AT TIMES IN BEST MIXING 18Z-23Z...BUT BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE QUICKLY THIS EVENING. FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY MONDAY MORNING
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...AT THIS TIME...IT DOES APPEAR
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TROUBLE WORKING NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN AND OHIO
STATE LINE GIVEN DRY AIR IN PLACE AND ONLY WEAK FORCING AS MAIN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FOR DTW...NONE.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* NONE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 403 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
DISCUSSION...
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH/ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LOWER PENINSULA THIS MORNING. A SHEARED BUT DISTINCT SHORTWAVE WILL
SHUTTLE ALONG THE WESTERN OUTER WALL TO THIS COLD POOL TRACKING
DIRECTLY THROUGH THE SAGINAW BAY REGION AND THUMB. LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY NOW OCCURRING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE CENTRAL UPPER
PENINSULA IS BEING FORCED BY DCVA DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
WHILE NOT AT A WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...MODEL DATA THE PAST 24 TO 36
HOURS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING THIS SOLUTION. THIS
LENDS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT ISO-SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BOTH THE WRF-NMM AND THE HRRR HAVE BEEN THE
MOST CONSISTENT WITH TIMING BETWEEN 15-22Z. WHILE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE THUMB COUNTIES...IN-HOUSE DIAGNOSTIC TR-
ISENTROPIC FIELDS SHOW A COMPACT REGION OF HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT/SATURATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME PASSING SPRINKLES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. FOR THIS ISSUANCE DID TRIM AND REFINE THE LOW
CHANCE POPS TO THE THUMB...WITH INTRODUCING CHANCE OF SPRINKLE
MENTION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AMOUNTS...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME LIGHT IMPACTS TO PUBLIC INTERESTS.
CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL ALLOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD AGGRESSIVELY INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. LAKE INFLUENCE AND A LOW SFC DEWPOINT AIR MASS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICK THIS EVENING WITH MIDDLE 30S POSSIBLE IN
THE THUMB. FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST HIGH ENOUGH
TO LIMIT MUCH FROST WORDING FOR THE EASTERN THUMB. THIS COULD CHANGE
WITH A BETTER LOOK AT AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S.
STABLE SPRING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF PICTURE
PERFECT WEATHER TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FOR MONDAY. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY TRAJECTORY WHICH SHOULD KEEP
SOME CHILL IN THE AIR. TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN
THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS..50S IN THE THUMB.
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE FOR THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEATHER DURING THE
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WILL BE THE UNWINDING OF THE OLD SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES CUTOFF LOW AND THE PERSISTENCE OF A BLOCKING PATTERN
OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. EACH SUCCESSIVE ITERATION OF THE NWP
SUITE AS BEEN ADVERTISING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THIS MIDWEEK
PATTERN WILL PLAY OUT. SOLUTIONS A DAY OR SO AGO WERE SUGGESTING
SOME STALLING OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...RUNS TONIGHT
ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT AT LEAST A PORTION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL NOW BE ALLOWED TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD. GIVEN THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN THE SOLUTIONS CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW IN EXACT
RAIN CHANCE TIMING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THERE IS A FEAR THAT
THIS MIDWEEK PERIOD IS RIPE FOR OVERFORECASTING AND BROADBRUSHING
TOO MUCH POPS AND HAVE MADE A CONCERTED EFFORT TO LIMIT THIS. WILL
COMMUNICATE THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN INCREASING SIGNAL AGAIN THAT
A REASONABLE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE
MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION THAT WILL EXIST OVER THE CWA. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL LIKELY REMAIN A CONCERN RIGHT UP TO THE EVENT...SO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. TRANSPARENCY TO THE CLOUD EARLY IN
THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER
60S.
MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER LAKE HURON THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...PERSISTING ON
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH WILL BRING NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT MAINLY JUST ACROSS
LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST CLAIR AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER LAKE HURON.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1043 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...
STILL EXPECTING A SEASONABLY COOL AND BREEZY MOTHER`S DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL SHORT OF RED FLAG THRESHOLDS.
MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWED WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LAKE
HURON THROUGH THE TIP OF THE MITT. TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH TODAY AS
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OVERSPREADS REGION. MAY SUN ANGLE
AND WEAK CAA (WITH 850 MB TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 0C)
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP MIXING AND LOCALLY GUSTY NW BREEZES
TOPPING OUT AROUND 20 MPH. SIMILARLY, SUNSHINE AND MIXING WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 50S N/W AREAS AND LOW-MID 60S S/E AREAS
AS DEW POINTS FALL THROUGH THE 20S. MIN RH/S WILL LOCALLY FALL
TO 18-23% - PARTICULARLY ALONG/EAST OF US-127 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH
OF M-32 - THOUGH LIKELY EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.
OTHERWISE, LINGERING MID CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
FADE. SOME HIGH BASE CU WILL CONTINUE TO FORM, ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE BIG LAKES ACROSS E UPPER AND NE LOWER. HRRR IS SUPPORTING
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LOWER AND
THE THUMB REGION. AT THIS TIME, DO NOT EXPECT ANY LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER OUR SE AREAS - BUT IF ANY FORM THIS IS MOST LIKELY AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND
FROST/FREEZE POSSIBILITIES FOR MONDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CHALLENGE: FROST FOR MONDAY MORNING
OVERVIEW...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE MOVING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING DOWN THE NW FLOW
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE OMEGA BLOCK HAS FALLEN APART
REPLACED BY A REX BLOCK IN THE WEST, AND A 500 MB LOW OVER JAMES
BAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS AFFECTING LOCATIONS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
TODAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION, LOOKED FOR ANALOGOUS
TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY WITH THE PATTERN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE AIR MASS OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES, IT LOOKS LIKE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE MODEL SOUNDING SHOW
PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN, ESPECIALLY AS IT GETS BREEZY AGAIN,
BUT NOT AS BREEZY AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. SO WILL EXPECT THAT WE AGAIN
WILL HAVE MIN RH VALUES OF BETWEEN 20-25% WITH SOME LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST INTO THE 15-20% RANGE WITH THE MIXING OVER
DRY SAND.
TONIGHT... WITH THE LOW DEWPOINTS, THE CLEAR SKIES, THE CALM WIND
AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 0C TO +1C OVER MOST OF THE AREA,
WILL EXPECT THAT WE WILL RADIATIONALLY COOL TO BELOW FREEZING. WITH
THE FROST/FREEZE SERVICE STARTING UP ON MONDAY, WILL INTRODUCE FROST
INTO THE GRIDS FOR MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY
START COMING BACK UP BEFORE SUNRISE, SO WILL GO WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND FREEZING TO THE MID 30S THAT WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT
WARM AS WE GET CLOSER TO 00Z. WILL PUT PATCHY FROST IN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE WINDS AND THE HOW
LONG WE ACTUALLY ARE ABLE TO GET FROST TO FORM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
LONG TERM (MONDAY AND TUESDAY)
IMPACTS: COLD MONDAY OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET INTO FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: HEIGHT RISES WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF CUTOFF LOW OVER
NE/IA. THE BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MOST OF SUNDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE PAC NW SUNDAY NIGHT...CATCHING UP TO AND
PHASING WITH THE CUTOFF OVER THE PLAINS GOING INTO MID-WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN OCCLUDING SFC LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION MID-WEEK. THE PHASED LOWS WILL TRACK MORE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...DEEPENING ANOTHER SFC LOW ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER WHICH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...BUT DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE ON THE HEELS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED
LOW.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
WITH FROST ADVISORY CONCERNS. NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY.
ASSOCIATED WEATHER: A RATHER DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY. ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS WILL LESSEN HOWEVER...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVERHEAD WILL LIGHTEN WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL GET
A BIT WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS THE HIGH HELPS TO SHUNT THE COLDER AIR
TO THE EAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH
BRINGS THE FIRST CHALLENGE OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...AIR MASS IS VERY
DRY...AND WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH MAY BRING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AND PUT SOME AREAS INTO FROST ADVISORY
TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING IN TUESDAY MORNING...AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD REALLY AFFECT JUST
HOW LOW TEMPS GET. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR CLOUDS TO BUILD SW TO
NE THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER IT WILL BE LATE MORNING FOR MOST BUT
THE FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THAT SAID...IF THINGS SPEED UP AND
CLOUDS GET IN EARLIER THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
ADVISORY LEVELS. BUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS FOR LATER CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AND LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. THIS MOISTURE ARRIVAL TIES
RIGHT INTO THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE...IF AND WHEN RAIN MIGHT
ARRIVE.
A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OCCLUDING LOW
MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS LOOKS TO BE INTO SW MI BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A
BAND OF ENHANCED VORTICITY ORIENTED NW TO SE THOUGH THE STATE IS
JUST CLIPPING THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA AND THROUGH GLADWIN COUNTY.
COMBINED WITH WAA ALONG THE FRONT...THERE IS SOME WEAK QG ASCENT IN
THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO SEE SHOWERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM LEELANAU TO ARENAC. WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH IF IT DOES ARRIVE.
EXTENDED... (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
WITH PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE OCCLUDING LOW DWINDLING...THE NEXT GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE ALONG A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
ATTACHED TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CANADA. THINGS
ALSO GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW...WITH
SOME COLD H8 AIR OVERHEAD. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE...BUT IT
IS ON THE EDGE OF SUPPORTING SOME (I DON/T WANT TO SAY IT) LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT OVER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD
AIR IN THESE SITUATIONS LATELY...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. A BIT OF TRIVIA...THE LATEST MEASURABLE SNOW FOR
GAYLORD ON RECORD IS MAY 17...THERE WAS 1.5 INCHES IN 1956.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
OTHER THAN THE SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, THE REST
OF THE DAY, AND THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THAT MATTER, WILL REMAIN VFR
OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A BUBBLE HIGH DROPS INTO THE REGION
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP, AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL KICK UP NEAR
WHITEFISH BAY AND THE ST. MARY`S RIVER. AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING
THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF AND REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BBS
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...MAYHEW
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JSL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1038 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...
STILL EXPECTING A SEASONABLY COOL AND BREEZY MOTHER`S DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL SHORT OF RED FLAG THRESHOLDS.
MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWED WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LAKE
HURON THROUGH THE TIP OF THE MITT. TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH TODAY AS
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OVERSPREADS REGION. MAY SUN ANGLE
AND WEAK CAA (WITH 850 MB TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 0C)
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP MIXING AND LOCALLY GUSTY NW BREEZES
TOPPING OUT AROUND 20 MPH. SIMILARLY, SUNSHINE AND MIXING WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 50S N/W AREAS AND LOW-MID 60S S/E AREAS
AS DEW POINTS FALL THROUGH THE 20S. MIN RH/S WILL LOCALLY FALL
TO 18-23% - PARTICULARLY ALONG/EAST OF US-127 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH
OF M-32 - THOUGH LIKELY EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.
OTHERWISE, LINGERING MID CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
FADE. SOME HIGH BASE CU WILL CONTINUE TO FORM, ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE BIG LAKES ACROSS E UPPER AND NE LOWER. HRRR IS SUPPORTING
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LOWER AND
THE THUMB REGION. AT THIS TIME, DO NOT EXPECT ANY LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER OUR SE AREAS - BUT IF ANY FORM THIS LIKELY BE WHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND
FROST/FREEZE POSSIBILITIES FOR MONDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CHALLENGE: FROST FOR MONDAY MORNING
OVERVIEW...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE MOVING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING DOWN THE NW FLOW
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE OMEGA BLOCK HAS FALLEN APART
REPLACED BY A REX BLOCK IN THE WEST, AND A 500 MB LOW OVER JAMES
BAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS AFFECTING LOCATIONS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
TODAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION, LOOKED FOR ANALOGOUS
TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY WITH THE PATTERN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE AIR MASS OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES, IT LOOKS LIKE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE MODEL SOUNDING SHOW
PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN, ESPECIALLY AS IT GETS BREEZY AGAIN,
BUT NOT AS BREEZY AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. SO WILL EXPECT THAT WE AGAIN
WILL HAVE MIN RH VALUES OF BETWEEN 20-25% WITH SOME LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST INTO THE 15-20% RANGE WITH THE MIXING OVER
DRY SAND.
TONIGHT... WITH THE LOW DEWPOINTS, THE CLEAR SKIES, THE CALM WIND
AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 0C TO +1C OVER MOST OF THE AREA,
WILL EXPECT THAT WE WILL RADIATIONALLY COOL TO BELOW FREEZING. WITH
THE FROST/FREEZE SERVICE STARTING UP ON MONDAY, WILL INTRODUCE FROST
INTO THE GRIDS FOR MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY
START COMING BACK UP BEFORE SUNRISE, SO WILL GO WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND FREEZING TO THE MID 30S THAT WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT
WARM AS WE GET CLOSER TO 00Z. WILL PUT PATCHY FROST IN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE WINDS AND THE HOW
LONG WE ACTUALLY ARE ABLE TO GET FROST TO FORM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
LONG TERM (MONDAY AND TUESDAY)
IMPACTS: COLD MONDAY OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET INTO FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: HEIGHT RISES WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF CUTOFF LOW OVER
NE/IA. THE BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MOST OF SUNDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE PAC NW SUNDAY NIGHT...CATCHING UP TO AND
PHASING WITH THE CUTOFF OVER THE PLAINS GOING INTO MID-WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN OCCLUDING SFC LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION MID-WEEK. THE PHASED LOWS WILL TRACK MORE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...DEEPENING ANOTHER SFC LOW ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER WHICH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...BUT DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE ON THE HEELS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED
LOW.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
WITH FROST ADVISORY CONCERNS. NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY.
ASSOCIATED WEATHER: A RATHER DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY. ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS WILL LESSEN HOWEVER...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVERHEAD WILL LIGHTEN WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL GET
A BIT WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS THE HIGH HELPS TO SHUNT THE COLDER AIR
TO THE EAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH
BRINGS THE FIRST CHALLENGE OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...AIR MASS IS VERY
DRY...AND WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH MAY BRING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AND PUT SOME AREAS INTO FROST ADVISORY
TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING IN TUESDAY MORNING...AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD REALLY AFFECT JUST
HOW LOW TEMPS GET. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR CLOUDS TO BUILD SW TO
NE THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER IT WILL BE LATE MORNING FOR MOST BUT
THE FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THAT SAID...IF THINGS SPEED UP AND
CLOUDS GET IN EARLIER THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
ADVISORY LEVELS. BUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS FOR LATER CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AND LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. THIS MOISTURE ARRIVAL TIES
RIGHT INTO THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE...IF AND WHEN RAIN MIGHT
ARRIVE.
A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OCCLUDING LOW
MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS LOOKS TO BE INTO SW MI BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A
BAND OF ENHANCED VORTICITY ORIENTED NW TO SE THOUGH THE STATE IS
JUST CLIPPING THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA AND THROUGH GLADWIN COUNTY.
COMBINED WITH WAA ALONG THE FRONT...THERE IS SOME WEAK QG ASCENT IN
THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO SEE SHOWERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM LEELANAU TO ARENAC. WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH IF IT DOES ARRIVE.
EXTENDED... (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
WITH PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE OCCLUDING LOW DWINDLING...THE NEXT GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE ALONG A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
ATTACHED TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CANADA. THINGS
ALSO GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW...WITH
SOME COLD H8 AIR OVERHEAD. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE...BUT IT
IS ON THE EDGE OF SUPPORTING SOME (I DON/T WANT TO SAY IT) LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT OVER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD
AIR IN THESE SITUATIONS LATELY...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. A BIT OF TRIVIA...THE LATEST MEASURABLE SNOW FOR
GAYLORD ON RECORD IS MAY 17...THERE WAS 1.5 INCHES IN 1956.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
OTHER THAN THE SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, THE REST
OF THE DAY, AND THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THAT MATTER, WILL REMAIN VFR
OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A BUBBLE HIGH DROPS INTO THE REGION
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP, AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL KICK UP NEAR
WHITEFISH BAY AND THE ST. MARY`S RIVER. AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING
THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF AND REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BBS
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...MAYHEW
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JSL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
731 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.AVIATION...
A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES BELOW 5000 FEET.
HIGH BASED DIRUNAL CU UP AND COLD POOL ALOFT TRACKING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN COULD TOUCH A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN TAF
SITES....BUT CHANCES/COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD GUST TO AROUND
20 KNOTS BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE AND CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE AGAIN.
FOR DTW...NONE.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 403 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
DISCUSSION...
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH/ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LOWER PENINSULA THIS MORNING. A SHEARED BUT DISTINCT SHORTWAVE WILL
SHUTTLE ALONG THE WESTERN OUTER WALL TO THIS COLD POOL TRACKING
DIRECTLY THROUGH THE SAGINAW BAY REGION AND THUMB. LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY NOW OCCURRING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE CENTRAL UPPER
PENINSULA IS BEING FORCED BY DCVA DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
WHILE NOT AT A WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...MODEL DATA THE PAST 24 TO 36
HOURS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING THIS SOLUTION. THIS
LENDS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT ISO-SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BOTH THE WRF-NMM AND THE HRRR HAVE BEEN THE
MOST CONSISTENT WITH TIMING BETWEEN 15-22Z. WHILE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE THUMB COUNTIES...IN-HOUSE DIAGNOSTIC TR-
ISENTROPIC FIELDS SHOW A COMPACT REGION OF HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT/SATURATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME PASSING SPRINKLES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. FOR THIS ISSUANCE DID TRIM AND REFINE THE LOW
CHANCE POPS TO THE THUMB...WITH INTRODUCING CHANCE OF SPRINKLE
MENTION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AMOUNTS...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME LIGHT IMPACTS TO PUBLIC INTERESTS.
CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL ALLOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD AGGRESSIVELY INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. LAKE INFLUENCE AND A LOW SFC DEWPOINT AIR MASS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICK THIS EVENING WITH MIDDLE 30S POSSIBLE IN
THE THUMB. FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST HIGH ENOUGH
TO LIMIT MUCH FROST WORDING FOR THE EASTERN THUMB. THIS COULD CHANGE
WITH A BETTER LOOK AT AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S.
STABLE SPRING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF PICTURE
PERFECT WEATHER TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FOR MONDAY. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY TRAJECTORY WHICH SHOULD KEEP
SOME CHILL IN THE AIR. TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN
THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS..50S IN THE THUMB.
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE FOR THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEATHER DURING THE
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WILL BE THE UNWINDING OF THE OLD SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES CUTOFF LOW AND THE PERSISTENCE OF A BLOCKING PATTERN
OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. EACH SUCCESSIVE ITERATION OF THE NWP
SUITE AS BEEN ADVERTISING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THIS MIDWEEK
PATTERN WILL PLAY OUT. SOLUTIONS A DAY OR SO AGO WERE SUGGESTING
SOME STALLING OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...RUNS TONIGHT
ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT AT LEAST A PORTION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL NOW BE ALLOWED TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD. GIVEN THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN THE SOLUTIONS CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW IN EXACT
RAIN CHANCE TIMING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THERE IS A FEAR THAT
THIS MIDWEEK PERIOD IS RIPE FOR OVERFORECASTING AND BROADBRUSHING
TOO MUCH POPS AND HAVE MADE A CONCERTED EFFORT TO LIMIT THIS. WILL
COMMUNICATE THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN INCREASING SIGNAL AGAIN THAT
A REASONABLE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE
MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION THAT WILL EXIST OVER THE CWA. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL LIKELY REMAIN A CONCERN RIGHT UP TO THE EVENT...SO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. TRANSPARENCY TO THE CLOUD EARLY IN
THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER
60S.
MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER LAKE HURON THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...PERSISTING ON
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH WILL BRING NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT MAINLY JUST ACROSS
LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST CLAIR AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER LAKE HURON.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
403 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH/ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LOWER PENINSULA THIS MORNING. A SHEARED BUT DISTINCT SHORTWAVE WILL
SHUTTLE ALONG THE WESTERN OUTER WALL TO THIS COLD POOL TRACKING
DIRECTLY THROUGH THE SAGINAW BAY REGION AND THUMB. LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY NOW OCCURRING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE CENTRAL UPPER
PENINSULA IS BEING FORCED BY DCVA DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
WHILE NOT AT A WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...MODEL DATA THE PAST 24 TO 36
HOURS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING THIS SOLUTION. THIS
LENDS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT ISO-SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BOTH THE WRF-NMM AND THE HRRR HAVE BEEN THE
MOST CONSISTENT WITH TIMING BETWEEN 15-22Z. WHILE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE THUMB COUNTIES...IN-HOUSE DIAGNOSTIC TR-
ISENTROPIC FIELDS SHOW A COMPACT REGION OF HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT/SATURATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME PASSING SPRINKLES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. FOR THIS ISSUANCE DID TRIM AND REFINE THE LOW
CHANCE POPS TO THE THUMB...WITH INTRODUCING CHANCE OF SPRINKLE
MENTION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AMOUNTS...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME LIGHT IMPACTS TO PUBLIC INTERESTS.
CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL ALLOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD AGGRESSIVELY INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. LAKE INFLUENCE AND A LOW SFC DEWPOINT AIR MASS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICK THIS EVENING WITH MIDDLE 30S POSSIBLE IN
THE THUMB. FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST HIGH ENOUGH
TO LIMIT MUCH FROST WORDING FOR THE EASTERN THUMB. THIS COULD CHANGE
WITH A BETTER LOOK AT AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S.
STABLE SPRING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF PICTURE
PERFECT WEATHER TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FOR MONDAY. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY TRAJECTORY WHICH SHOULD KEEP
SOME CHILL IN THE AIR. TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN
THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS..50S IN THE THUMB.
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE FOR THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEATHER DURING THE
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WILL BE THE UNWINDING OF THE OLD SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES CUTOFF LOW AND THE PERSISTENCE OF A BLOCKING PATTERN
OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. EACH SUCCESSIVE ITERATION OF THE NWP
SUITE AS BEEN ADVERTISING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THIS MIDWEEK
PATTERN WILL PLAY OUT. SOLUTIONS A DAY OR SO AGO WERE SUGGESTING
SOME STALLING OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...RUNS TONIGHT
ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT AT LEAST A PORTION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL NOW BE ALLOWED TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD. GIVEN THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN THE SOLUTIONS CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW IN EXACT
RAIN CHANCE TIMING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THERE IS A FEAR THAT
THIS MIDWEEK PERIOD IS RIPE FOR OVERFORECASTING AND BROADBRUSHING
TOO MUCH POPS AND HAVE MADE A CONCERTED EFFORT TO LIMIT THIS. WILL
COMMUNICATE THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN INCREASING SIGNAL AGAIN THAT
A REASONABLE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE
MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION THAT WILL EXIST OVER THE CWA. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL LIKELY REMAIN A CONCERN RIGHT UP TO THE EVENT...SO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. TRANSPARENCY TO THE CLOUD EARLY IN
THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER
60S.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER LAKE HURON THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...PERSISTING ON
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH WILL BRING NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT MAINLY JUST ACROSS
LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST CLAIR AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER LAKE HURON.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1200 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CLOUD BACK UP BUT
MAINLY ABOVE 7KFT THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK TROUGH
TRIES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS DO ADVERTISE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINK THE AIR MASS IS TOO DRY
AND CIGS WILL STAY TOO HIGH FOR ANYTHING TO HIT THE GROUND.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD GUST
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BEFORE THE HIGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE AND CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE AGAIN.
FOR DTW...NONE.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
333 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
INTO THE GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG OVER WRN CANADA AND DEEP TROFFING
OVER ERN NAMERICA. MUCH COOLER AIR HAS INVADED THE UPR LKS FOLLOWING
COLD FROPA LAST NGT...WITH SFC TEMPS PEAKING BTWN 60-65 OVER THE
SCENTRAL AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN LLVL NLY FLOW AHEAD OF APRCHG
SFC HI PRES RDG. RH HAS DIPPED TO AS LO AS ABOUT 25 PCT WITH INFLUX
OF LLVL DRY AIR/DAYTIME MIXING. SKIES ARE MOSUNNY THIS AFTN...BUT
DIURNAL CU ARE NOW DVLPG OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF. THERE IS ANOTHER
SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU NW ONTARIO WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF...AND
THERE ARE MORE CLDS OVER NW ONTARIO/MN ARROWHEAD MOVING INTO NW LK
SUP ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTER ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED ON THE 12Z YPL RAOB
AND 00Z-12Z H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 130M REPORTED AT INL AND YPL.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLD TRENDS/POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TNGT AHEAD OF SHRTWV/SFC TROF APRCHG FM THE NW.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...DESPITE THE RATHER DRY LLVL AIR AND ACYC
NATURE OF THE H925-85 NW FLOW OVER THE CWA...SOME OF THE HIER RES
MODELS STILL GENERATE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG MAINLY
ALONG AXIS OF LLVL CNVGC/STEEPER MID LVL LAPSE RATES FCST OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA. CONSIDERING THE MOISTER ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z
YPL RAOB...THE EXPANDING INSTABILITY CLDS TO THE NW SPILLING OUT
INTO LK SUP...AND FAIRLY SHARP H5 HGT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC THAT IS FCST TO IMPACT THE CWA AHEAD OF
APRCHG SHRTWV...OPTED TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS WHERE MANY OF
THE HIER RES GUIDANCE IS GENERATING THE PCPN. OTHER AREAS WL SEE SCT-
BKN CLD COVER. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC BEHIND SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES TROF PASSAGE WL CAUSE ANY
SHOWERS AND THE CLDS TO DIMINISH OVERNGT. MIN TEMPS WL FALL INTO THE
CHILLY 30S AT MOST PLACES.
SUN...HI PRES BLDG OVER THE UPR LKS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIRMASS WITH PWAT NOT FAR FM 0.25 INCH WL BRING MOSUNNY WX TO UPR
MI. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO RANGE FM ABOUT 0C OVER THE ERN CWA TO ARND
4C OVER THE SW CWA BY 00Z MON...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS NEAR 65 ALONG
THE WI BORDER AND IN THE 50S OVER THE E. WITH A LIGHT NNE FLOW OFF
LK SUP...EXPECT HI TEMPS NEAR THE SHORE TO HOLD IN THE 40S. LIGHTER
WINDS UNDER FLATTER PRES GRADIENT WL LIMIT FIRE WX CONCERNS EVEN
THOUGH DAYTIME MIXING WL DROP MIN AFTN RH AS LO AS 20-25 PCT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND GREAT LAKES GIVES WAY TO UPPER
RIDGING MON INTO TUE. RIDGING BRIEF THOUGH AS UPPER TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CONUS LIFTS ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUE INTO WED WITH ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH AND STRONGER SFC LOW/COLD FRONT CROSSING THU. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MON INTO MOST OF TUE. MOST SUNSHINE WILL
OCCUR ON MON SO THAT WILL BE THE DEEPER MIXING DAY WHEN TEMPS REACH
WELL INTO THE 60S AND RH VALUES DROP TO 20-25 PCT. ESE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST OVER WESTERN HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN
THE AFTN. MID CLOUDS MOVE IN AHEAD OF FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SHEARING
OUT VORT MAX ON TUE. NAM/ECMWF INDICATE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
OUT OF THE MID CLOUDS MAINLY WEST. GFS AND GEM-NH STAY DRY. MOST
CONFIDENT THAT CNTRL AND EAST STAY DRY AS THOSE AREAS ARE CLOSER TO
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE/DRY AIR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT
RAIN WEST OR NEAR WI BORDER. COULD SEE BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGE BRING
DRY WEATHER MOST OF WED AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LOW. UNCERTAIN ON EXTENT
OF MID CLOUDS BUT PROBABLY WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY
IF THE SECOND UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW/COLD FRONT SLOW ANY. SINCE H85
TEMPS ARE PUSHING 6-8C AND THERE COULD BE SOME SUN...RAISED TEMPS
OVER WEST CWA TO TO LOWER 70S WITH 60S ELSEWHERE.
ARRIVAL OF UPPER TROUGH/DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND PVA COMBINES WITH
COLD FRONT TO BRING BATCH OF SHOWERS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN WED NIGHT
INTO THU. QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE UP TO 0.25 INCH WITH SOME
OF THE WETTER MODELS EVEN SHOWING AMOUNTS IN PARTS OF CWA UP TO 0.50
INCH. THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN DRIER THAN MODELS HAVE SHOWED AT TIMES.
EVEN A WIDESPREAD QUARTER INCH OF RAIN WOULD BE WELCOME GIVEN THE
DRY CONDITIONS LATELY. NO SFC BASED OR ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO NO
TSRA EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT. UPPER LOW IN VCNTY WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FRI INTO SAT...AND WITH H85 TEMPS
DOWN TO -8C WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES LESS THAN 1290DAM COULD EVEN
BE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SFC
TEMPS STILL MARGINAL FOR THAT WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 30S...SO WILL
KEEP PTYPE AS RAIN FOR NOW.
LASTLY...WEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COULD BE QUITE BREEZY ON
FRI...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WHERE IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT GUSTS COULD REACH OVER 40 MPH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BECOMING DRIER TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
W WINDS UP TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE N TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A LO PRES TROUGH. THEN WITH HUDSON BAY HI
PRES DOMINATING INTO AT LEAST MID WEEK...EXPECT THE N WINDS TO SHIFT
TOWARD THE E UP TO 20 KTS INTO WED. AN APPROACHING LO PRES WILL
CAUSE THE WINDS TO TURN MORE TO THE S BY THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
229 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
INTO THE GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG OVER WRN CANADA AND DEEP TROFFING
OVER ERN NAMERICA. MUCH COOLER AIR HAS INVADED THE UPR LKS FOLLOWING
COLD FROPA LAST NGT...WITH SFC TEMPS PEAKING BTWN 60-65 OVER THE
SCENTRAL AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN LLVL NLY FLOW AHEAD OF APRCHG
SFC HI PRES RDG. RH HAS DIPPED TO AS LO AS ABOUT 25 PCT WITH INFLUX
OF LLVL DRY AIR/DAYTIME MIXING. SKIES ARE MOSUNNY THIS AFTN...BUT
DIURNAL CU ARE NOW DVLPG OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF. THERE IS ANOTHER
SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU NW ONTARIO WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF...AND
THERE ARE MORE CLDS OVER NW ONTARIO/MN ARROWHEAD MOVING INTO NW LK
SUP ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTER ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED ON THE 12Z YPL RAOB
AND 00Z-12Z H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 130M REPORTED AT INL AND YPL.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLD TRENDS/POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TNGT AHEAD OF SHRTWV/SFC TROF APRCHG FM THE NW.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...DESPITE THE RATHER DRY LLVL AIR AND ACYC
NATURE OF THE H925-85 NW FLOW OVER THE CWA...SOME OF THE HIER RES
MODELS STILL GENERATE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG MAINLY
ALONG AXIS OF LLVL CNVGC/STEEPER MID LVL LAPSE RATES FCST OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA. CONSIDERING THE MOISTER ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z
YPL RAOB...THE EXPANDING INSTABILITY CLDS TO THE NW SPILLING OUT
INTO LK SUP...AND FAIRLY SHARP H5 HGT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC THAT IS FCST TO IMPACT THE CWA AHEAD OF
APRCHG SHRTWV...OPTED TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS WHERE MANY OF
THE HIER RES GUIDANCE IS GENERATING THE PCPN. OTHER AREAS WL SEE SCT-
BKN CLD COVER. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC BEHIND SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES TROF PASSAGE WL CAUSE ANY
SHOWERS AND THE CLDS TO DIMINISH OVERNGT. MIN TEMPS WL FALL INTO THE
CHILLY 30S AT MOST PLACES.
SUN...HI PRES BLDG OVER THE UPR LKS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIRMASS WITH PWAT NOT FAR FM 0.25 INCH WL BRING MOSUNNY WX TO UPR
MI. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO RANGE FM ABOUT 0C OVER THE ERN CWA TO ARND
4C OVER THE SW CWA BY 00Z MON...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS NEAR 65 ALONG
THE WI BORDER AND IN THE 50S OVER THE E. WITH A LIGHT NNE FLOW OFF
LK SUP...EXPECT HI TEMPS NEAR THE SHORE TO HOLD IN THE 40S. LIGHTER
WINDS UNDER FLATTER PRES GRADIENT WL LIMIT FIRE WX CONCERNS EVEN
THOUGH DAYTIME MIXING WL DROP MIN AFTN RH AS LO AS 20-25 PCT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND MON THROUGH WED AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH AND AN UPPER LOW OR TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE W. HIGHS MON IN
THE 60S AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORES INCREASE TO MID 60S TO MID
70S ON WED. THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE TURNING COOLER AS THAT UPPER
LOW OR TROUGH MOVE IN...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
FRI AND SAT.
LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE CONTINUE ON MON
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND RH IMPROVES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AREA SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP SW OF THE CWA AT LEAST INTO WED. MODELS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT MAYBE SOME PRECIP BRUSHING THE WI BORDER MON NIGHT INTO
WED...BUT THE MODELS WITH THE BEST CONTINUITY HAVE KEPT THAT PRECIP
JUST SW OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW END AND CONFINED TO
THE WI BORDER INTO WED. WED NIGHT AND THU MAY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SFC COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. FRI AND SAT LOOK WETTER...BUT MORE SHOWERS THAN
WIDESPREAD RAIN...AS THE UPPER LOW OR TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BECOMING DRIER TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
W WINDS UP TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE N TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A LO PRES TROUGH. THEN WITH HUDSON BAY HI
PRES DOMINATING INTO AT LEAST MID WEEK...EXPECT THE N WINDS TO SHIFT
TOWARD THE E UP TO 20 KTS INTO WED. AN APPROACHING LO PRES WILL
CAUSE THE WINDS TO TURN MORE TO THE S BY THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
636 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 254 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
The cirrus shield spreading over the area from showers and storms
across eastern OK through central MO is expected to move east by
this afternoon. This will allow the western sections of the
forecast area to see several hours of sun and destabilize with
around 2000 to 2500 J/kg of CAPE possible. Forecast soundings show
an environment over eastern KS and western MO nearly uncapped as
well. This is well east of the modified dryline in south central KS
which should be the primary focus. But there is some concern of
development within the moderately unstable and potentially uncapped
environment over eastern KS. Regardless, shear in this area is
somewhat marginal for organized updrafts. Rather, any activity ahead
of the main initiation area looks more multicellular with hail and
strong to potentially damaging winds and heavy rain the biggest
concern. Higher resolution convective models then bring in the
convection that developed over central KS into the area tonight in
the 03Z to 06Z. Instability may be limited by the time this area
moves into the forecast area and again, shear looks marginally
supportive of organized severe weather. So if this second round of
storms moves in, the potential for hail and winds as well as heavy
rain/localized flooding looks to be the biggest concern.
There may be a lull in activity during the day Tuesday with shortwave
ridging moving through the area. But thunderstorm chances return
Wednesday with the passage of another upper shortwave trough and
associated front. Models suggest robust instability will develop by
the afternoon hours ahead of the surface front. Shear again looks
marginal ahead of the front but increases substantially behind it.
So there may be window when the combination of instability and shear
is maximized in the vicinity of the front.
Through the extended portion of the forecast, several other
shortwave troughs will move through the area with each one bring
another chance of precipitation. But it appears that after the
Wednesday activity, moisture will be scoured out well to the south.
There may be some limited return ahead of the next shortwave
trough. This should lead to round of showers and a few storms Friday
afternoon into Saturday, depending on the actual timing of the wave.
By Sunday into Monday, more widespread showers and thunderstorms are
possible as ample low level moisture streams northward ahead of the
next wave and front.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
Mostly VFR conditions are prevailing at the terminals in western
Missouri with the exception of KSTJ where MVFR clouds prevail thanks
to the local showers. Currently, watching a line of storms in south
central Kansas that will move northeast this evening, and is
currently expected to arrive at the west Missouri terminals between
02Z and 03Z with a few hours of stormy activity to follow. After the
late night activity moves to our northeast the threat for storms will
fade for about 24 hours as clouds slowly clear out during the day
Tuesday and winds veer to the south.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Cutter
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
616 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
Storms have developed across western into north central Arkansas
early this evening. This activity is and will continue to spread
northeast across south central Missouri this evening. Cloud cover
from convection early in the day have kept instability lower and
limited the severe risk. Still with strong deep layer shear and
few strong storms will be possible across south central MO this
evening with hail to the size of nickles and wind gusts to 50 mph
the main risk.
Additional thunderstorms have develop across central Kansas into
central Oklahoma along a dry line this afternoon and early this
evening. The dry line will not push much to the east so these
storms are easily moving off the dry line and being supercells.
With the dry line not moving east the thought is as the storms
track east cold pools will congeal and form a line or line
segments. There could be mix mode as this occurs but think as the
storms approach the area later this evening the main storm mode
with be line segments. Clouds did clear and instability increase
across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri which will keep an
elevated risk for severe storms later this evening into the
overnight hours generally west of Highway 65. East of 65 there are
more questions due to weaker instability due to current and
earlier convection today. Height falls will still occur with an
upper level shortwave so there could still be a risk east of 65.
The main severe risk with the line segments will be winds over 60
mph. A few of the stronger updrafts could be capable of hail to
the size of quarters. 0-3km bulk shear will be west to east at
30-35kt, so a limited tornado risk will occur, mainly with any
line segments can surge to the east later this evening into the
overnight hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
An area of showers associated with a subtle short wave now over
southwest MO helped stabilize conditions today, but clearing has
occurred in it`s wake over southeast KS and sw MO. Rapid sfc
warming and increased instability over eastern KS/OK is setting
the stage for rapid storm development over the next few hours.
It looks like there are two distinct areas of concern:
1. Central/eastern KS/ne OK into southeast KS western MO this
afternoon and into tonight. MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 j/kg and
increased ascent ahead of another stronger shortwave now over sw
KS will increase convective development over the next few hours
along and just ahead of dryline/sfc trough. Storms over KS/OK
initially develop as supercells with large hail/wind the main
risks off to our west. Some high res guidance, notably the HRRR,
gradually transition the storms more linear or mixed mode
supercell and bowing segments as it tracks east into our area
mid/late evening with mlcapes somewhat weakened, but still in the
1200-1500 j/kg range. Believe wind and hail will be the main storm
hazards but a brief spin up tornado will be possible with n-s
oriented line segments (0-3km shear vectors from the west at
30-35kts) this evening and possibly last past 06z/1 am.
2. Another area of storms is expected to develop farther south
over se OK and western AR. This area has been a bit worked over
with persistent cloud cover, but more abundant low level
moisture, better vertical shear (50+ kts 0-6km), and increased
instability/partial clearing will allow supercells with all modes
of hazards (hail/wind/tornado) to develop. The general high res
model trend has been to keep this activity south of the MO/AR
border, but the northern edge could work it`s way up into far
southern MO this evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
The occasionally active weather pattern will continue this week.
Tue: Expect a bit of a lull after residual morning activity. The
shortwave that is expected to produce tonight`s active weather
will shift off quickly to the northeast with a shortwave upper
ridge moving across the area. Can`t rule out some diurnally driven
afternoon/evening convection, but activity looks minimal at this
point. The GFS does produce some late night convection Tue night
in response to a increased low level, but this seems to be
somewhat of an outlier versus the ECMWF and GEM.
Wed: Looks more active Wed afternoon/night as another shortwave
moves ene through the region. Mid level height falls/increased
ascent, abundant warm sector low level moisture/instability will
allow strong/severe storms to develop focused along a cold front
expected to move into eastern KS/MO.
Thu/Fri: Looks drier in the wake of the cold front. Some low pops
are warranted with another sfc frontal passage late Fri.
Sat-Mon: Zonal midlevel flow and a trailing stationary frontal
boundary will keep occasional convective weather active but hard
to time through this period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A storm system is tracking
across the plains early this evening and storms are developing
across central Kansas to the south through central Oklahoma.
Additional showers and thunderstorms have developed across north
central Arkansas into south central Missouri, and may clip the
KBBG Area early this evening. For the most part this activity will
remain south and east of the TAF sites this evening.
The storms that are currently across Kansas and Oklahoma will
then track east towards the area later this evening into the
overnight hours. These storms will have a better potential of
affecting the TAF sites. MVFR and possibly IFR conditions will
occur with any thunderstorm. Storms may linger into the overnight
hours. Behind the convection late tonight MVRF conditions may
occur be there is questions if this will develop of not.
Conditions will improve quickly after sun rise if MVFR conditions
can develop.
Low level wind shear will be possible tonight. With gusty south to
southwesterly winds occurring, especially Tuesday morning and
afternoon.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Wise
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
602 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
An area of rain with embedded thunderstorms was ongoing this
afternoon and has been for most of the day. Pcpn was supported by
H85 LLJ moisture convergence. The local WRF model depicts an
intensification of the jet after 00z and especially after 03z. The
jet will simultaneously translate northeastward as it intensifies,
therefore the bulk of the pcpn should also translate northeastward
with time. This has been reflected in the overnight PoP grids.
There is a possibility that convection farther west may organize
into a line and move into the LSX CWA late tonight (after
midnight) or early tomorrow morning. H7-H5 lapse rates are
forecast to increase overnight, exceeding 6.5-7 deg C/km after
06z. MUCAPE remains around 1000 J/kg overnight with higher values
noted across the southern half of the CWA. This environment would
be favorable to maintain convection if it moves into the area,
although it may not necessarily be severe. An organized line
could produce wind gusts, and the steep H7-H5 lapse rates suggest
that the stronger convective cores could also produce hail.
A lull in widespread pcpn is expected on Tuesday. Although the
shear is better on Tue (30-40 kts of 0-6km bulk shear) compared
to Wed, the CAPE is less favorable and models depict a capping
inversion dvlpg between 800-700mb. There is also shortwave
ridging aloft. Can`t rule out a few strong to severe storms if
anything can break the cap, but widespread pcpn is not expected
attm.
Attention then turns to Wednesday. Wed looks like a very warm day
with the entire CWA in the warm sector and southwesterly surface
winds during most of the day. Forecast high temperatures in the
mid to upper 80s are around 10-12 degrees above average for this
time of year. While local residents are out enjoying the warm
weather, a cold front will be approaching from the west. The
front will move through the area on Wed aftn/eve. Although shear
values are on the low side ahead of the front (perhaps up to 25
kts of 0-6 km bulk shear), the instability forecasts are sobering.
Even the SREF paints high probabilities of at least 2000-3000 J/kg
of CAPE on Wed aftn. Most models also depict very favorable H7-H5
lapse rates of around 7-7.5 deg C/km. High instability values have
been known to compensate for lower shear, the timing of the cold
front is diurnally favorable, and shear vectors are nearly
parallel to the boundary. Therefore, a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms is expected to develop near the front and move
across our area on Wed aftn/eve. Pcpn tapers off on Wed night
with the passage of the cdfnt.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
Quiet weather is expected on Thursday. The aforementioned cold
front will have been shunted off to the south and high pressure
will have settled across the region. A trough develops near the
Great Lakes on Friday, placing the LSX CWA beneath NW flow aloft.
Its approach also sends another cold front into the region on
Friday which then lifts back northward as a warm front on
Sun/Mon. During this time, large-scale lift ahead of occasional
shortwaves and the presence of a boundary supports a chance of
SHRA/TSRA.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 532 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
An area of light showers over the taf sites should shift
northeast of COU and the St Louis metro area around 00Z Tuesday
and northeast of UIN by 02Z Tuesday. There may be a brief period
of partial clearing this evening, especially at COU. More
convection is expected late tonight into Tuesday morning as an
upper level disturbance moves northeastward through the region with
a southwesterly low level jet across southeast MO and southwest IL
late tonight. An area of showers and storms across parts of
southwest and south central MO into northwest AR may clip the St
Louis metro area late this evening into the overnight hours.
Thunderstorms over eastern parts of KS and OK may move into the
taf sites late tonight. For now will just include VCTS in the tafs
late tonight due to uncertainties in timing and coverage. With
abundant moisture in the low levels should see prevailing cigs
dropping into the MVFR catagory late tonight, then rising back
into the VFR catagory by Tuesday afternoon. Sely surface winds
tonight should become more s-swly on Tuesday.
Specifics for KSTL: Should have a break in the precipitation this
evening with more showers and storms moving through the STL area late
tonight. For now will just include VCTS in the STL taf late
tonight. The prevailing cigs should drop into the MVFR catagory
late tonight, then rise back into the VFR catagory late Tuesday
morning. There may be scattered showers/storms redeveloping late
Tuesday afternoon and early evening. Sely surface wind tonight
will become s-swly on Tuesday.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
602 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
An area of rain with embedded thunderstorms was ongoing this
afternoon and has been for most of the day. Pcpn was supported by
H85 LLJ moisture convergence. The local WRF model depicts an
intensification of the jet after 00z and especially after 03z. The
jet will simultaneously translate northeastward as it intensifies,
therefore the bulk of the pcpn should also translate northeastward
with time. This has been reflected in the overnight PoP grids.
There is a possibility that convection farther west may organize
into a line and move into the LSX CWA late tonight (after
midnight) or early tomorrow morning. H7-H5 lapse rates are
forecast to increase overnight, exceeding 6.5-7 deg C/km after
06z. MUCAPE remains around 1000 J/kg overnight with higher values
noted across the southern half of the CWA. This environment would
be favorable to maintain convection if it moves into the area,
although it may not necessarily be severe. An organized line
could produce wind gusts, and the steep H7-H5 lapse rates suggest
that the stronger convective cores could also produce hail.
A lull in widespread pcpn is expected on Tuesday. Although the
shear is better on Tue (30-40 kts of 0-6km bulk shear) compared
to Wed, the CAPE is less favorable and models depict a capping
inversion dvlpg between 800-700mb. There is also shortwave
ridging aloft. Can`t rule out a few strong to severe storms if
anything can break the cap, but widespread pcpn is not expected
attm.
Attention then turns to Wednesday. Wed looks like a very warm day
with the entire CWA in the warm sector and southwesterly surface
winds during most of the day. Forecast high temperatures in the
mid to upper 80s are around 10-12 degrees above average for this
time of year. While local residents are out enjoying the warm
weather, a cold front will be approaching from the west. The
front will move through the area on Wed aftn/eve. Although shear
values are on the low side ahead of the front (perhaps up to 25
kts of 0-6 km bulk shear), the instability forecasts are sobering.
Even the SREF paints high probabilities of at least 2000-3000 J/kg
of CAPE on Wed aftn. Most models also depict very favorable H7-H5
lapse rates of around 7-7.5 deg C/km. High instability values have
been known to compensate for lower shear, the timing of the cold
front is diurnally favorable, and shear vectors are nearly
parallel to the boundary. Therefore, a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms is expected to develop near the front and move
across our area on Wed aftn/eve. Pcpn tapers off on Wed night
with the passage of the cdfnt.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
Quiet weather is expected on Thursday. The aforementioned cold
front will have been shunted off to the south and high pressure
will have settled across the region. A trough develops near the
Great Lakes on Friday, placing the LSX CWA beneath NW flow aloft.
Its approach also sends another cold front into the region on
Friday which then lifts back northward as a warm front on
Sun/Mon. During this time, large-scale lift ahead of occasional
shortwaves and the presence of a boundary supports a chance of
SHRA/TSRA.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 532 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
An area of light showers over the taf sites should shift
northeast of COU and the St Louis metro area around 00Z Tuesday
and northeast of UIN by 02Z Tuesday. There may be a brief period
of partial clearing this evening, especially at COU. More
convection is expected late tonight into Tuesday morning as an
upper level disturbance moves northeastward through the region with
a southwesterly low level jet across southeast MO and southwest IL
late tonight. An area of showers and storms across parts of
southwest and south central MO into northwest AR may clip the St
Louis metro area late this evening into the overnight hours.
Thunderstorms over eastern parts of KS and OK may move into the
taf sites late tonight. For now will just include VCTS in the tafs
late tonight due to uncertainties in timing and coverage. With
abundant moisture in the low levels should see prevailing cigs
dropping into the MVFR catagory late tonight, then rising back
into the VFR catagory by Tuesday afternoon. Sely surface winds
tonight should become more s-swly on Tuesday.
Specifics for KSTL: Should have a break in the precipitation this
evening with more showers and storms moving through the STL area late
tonight. For now will just include VCTS in the STL taf late
tonight. The prevailing cigs should drop into the MVFR catagory
late tonight, then rise back into the VFR catagory late Tuesday
morning. There may be scattered showers/storms redeveloping late
Tuesday afternoon and early evening. Sely surface wind tonight
will become s-swly on Tuesday.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
411 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
An area of rain with embedded thunderstorms was ongoing this
afternoon and has been for most of the day. Pcpn was supported by
H85 LLJ moisture convergence. The local WRF model depicts an
intensification of the jet after 00z and especially after 03z. The
jet will simultaneously translate northeastward as it intensifies,
therefore the bulk of the pcpn should also translate northeastward
with time. This has been reflected in the overnight PoP grids.
There is a possibility that convection farther west may organize
into a line and move into the LSX CWA late tonight (after
midnight) or early tomorrow morning. H7-H5 lapse rates are
forecast to increase overnight, exceeding 6.5-7 deg C/km after
06z. MUCAPE remains around 1000 J/kg overnight with higher values
noted across the southern half of the CWA. This environment would
be favorable to maintain convection if it moves into the area,
although it may not necessarily be severe. An organized line
could produce wind gusts, and the steep H7-H5 lapse rates suggest
that the stronger convective cores could also produce hail.
A lull in widespread pcpn is expected on Tuesday. Although the
shear is better on Tue (30-40 kts of 0-6km bulk shear) compared
to Wed, the CAPE is less favorable and models depict a capping
inversion dvlpg between 800-700mb. There is also shortwave
ridging aloft. Can`t rule out a few strong to severe storms if
anything can break the cap, but widespread pcpn is not expected
attm.
Attention then turns to Wednesday. Wed looks like a very warm day
with the entire CWA in the warm sector and southwesterly surface
winds during most of the day. Forecast high temperatures in the
mid to upper 80s are around 10-12 degrees above average for this
time of year. While local residents are out enjoying the warm
weather, a cold front will be approaching from the west. The
front will move through the area on Wed aftn/eve. Although shear
values are on the low side ahead of the front (perhaps up to 25
kts of 0-6 km bulk shear), the instability forecasts are sobering.
Even the SREF paints high probabilities of at least 2000-3000 J/kg
of CAPE on Wed aftn. Most models also depict very favorable H7-H5
lapse rates of around 7-7.5 deg C/km. High instability values have
been known to compensate for lower shear, the timing of the cold
front is diurnally favorable, and shear vectors are nearly
parallel to the boundary. Therefore, a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms is expected to develop near the front and move
across our area on Wed aftn/eve. Pcpn tapers off on Wed night
with the passage of the cdfnt.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
Quiet weather is expected on Thursday. The aforementioned cold
front will have been shunted off to the south and high pressure
will have settled across the region. A trough develops near the
Great Lakes on Friday, placing the LSX CWA beneath NW flow aloft.
Its approach also sends another cold front into the region on
Friday which then lifts back northward as a warm front on
Sun/Mon. During this time, large-scale lift ahead of occasional
shortwaves and the presence of a boundary supports a chance of
SHRA/TSRA.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
Busy fcst prd with several rounds of precip expected thru tonight.
An area of -SHRAs with isld thunder continues to expand in coverage
as it moves NE. Most of this activity is VFR but there are areas
of high end MVFR CIGs. Any heavier SHRA/TSTM could briefly drop
VSBY to IFR. Removed all prevailing and tempo thunder from previous
pkg as it appears most of this aftn will be void of thunder.
Another round of precip is expected this evng and this could be
more substantial but not confident enough with timing or coverage
to include any specifics attm. This activity is fcst to move E of
the MS Rvr around 6Z. There could be some addtnl precip late
tonight but spotty coverage with better chances SE of the STL
metro area. Lowering CIGs are more certain as model guidance
indicates at least MVFR CIGs across the area by Tue mrng. IFR CIGs
are certainly possible but not confident enough to go that low
yet. Either way...CIGs should improve to VFR by late Tue
mrng...possibly as late as early aftn if IFR CIGs dvlp.
Specifics for KSTL:
Active fcst pkg with several rounds of precip expected. First
round of precip will move into the terminal by 19Z...and should
continue thru the aftn/evng. Looks like mostly VFR rain for this
aftn but there could be some embedded thunder. Pockets of high end
MVFR CIGs are assoc with some of the heavier SHRAs.Addntl SHRAs
are possible late tonight but not confident on coverage so used
VCSH to handle it. MVFR CIGs should dvlp tonight in response to
moist low level sthrly flow. Possible that CIGs will deteriorate
to IFR but not confident enough in that scenario to include attm.
CIGs should improve to VFR by late Tue mrng..or early aftn if IFR
CIGs do dvlp. There is another chance for TSTMs Tue aftn but not
confident if any of the activity will directly impact the terminal
precludes inclusion attm...added VCTS after 21Z.
2%
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
335 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
An area of showers associated with a subtle short wave now over
southwest MO helped stabilize conditions today, but clearing has
occurred in it`s wake over southeast KS and sw MO. Rapid sfc
warming and increased instability over eastern KS/OK is setting
the stage for rapid storm development over the next few hours.
It looks like there are two distinct areas of concern:
1. Central/eastern KS/ne OK into southeast KS western MO this
afternoon and into tonight. MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 j/kg and
increased ascent ahead of another stronger shortwave now over sw
KS will increase convective development over the next few hours
along and just ahead of dryline/sfc trough. Storms over KS/OK
initially develop as supercells with large hail/wind the main
risks off to our west. Some high res guidance, notably the HRRR,
gradually transition the storms more linear or mixed mode
supercell and bowing segments as it tracks east into our area
mid/late evening with mlcapes somewhat weakened, but still in the
1200-1500 j/kg range. Believe wind and hail will be the main storm
hazards but a brief spin up tornado will be possible with n-s
oriented line segments (0-3km shear vectors from the west at
30-35kts) this evening and possibly last past 06z/1 am.
2. Another area of storms is expected to develop farther south
over se OK and western AR. This area has been a bit worked over
with persistent cloud cover, but more abundant low level
moisture, better vertical shear (50+ kts 0-6km), and increased
instability/partial clearing will allow supercells with all modes
of hazards (hail/wind/tornado) to develop. The general high res
model trend has been to keep this activity south of the MO/AR
border, but the northern edge could work it`s way up into far
southern MO this evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
The occasionally active weather pattern will continue this week.
Tue: Expect a bit of a lull after residual morning activity. The
shortwave that is expected to produce tonight`s active weather
will shift off quickly to the northeast with a shortwave upper
ridge moving across the area. Can`t rule out some diurnally driven
afternoon/evening convection, but activity looks minimal at this
point. The GFS does produce some late night convection Tue night
in response to a increased low level, but this seems to be
somewhat of an outlier versus the ECMWF and GEM.
Wed: Looks more active Wed afternoon/night as another shortwave
moves ene through the region. Mid level height falls/increased
ascent, abundant warm sector low level moisture/instability will
allow strong/severe storms to develop focused along a cold front
expected to move into eastern KS/MO.
Thu/Fri: Looks drier in the wake of the cold front. Some low pops
are warranted with another sfc frontal passage late Fri.
Sat-Mon: Zonal midlevel flow and a trailing stationary frontal
boundary will keep occasional convective weather active but hard
to time through this period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: An area of weakening showers is
moving across the area now with vfr ceilings. Additional storm
development is expected to the west and southwest of the taf
sites over the next few hours and we expected that to move through
the region, primarily during the 00z-06z time frame. IFR
conditions with heavier rain can be expected. Lower stratus
ceilings are expected late in the taf period after the storms exit
off to the east.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
255 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 254 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
The cirrus shield spreading over the area from showers and storms
across eastern OK through central MO is expected to move east by
this afternoon. This will allow the western sections of the
forecast area to see several hours of sun and destabilize with
around 2000 to 2500 J/kg of CAPE possible. Forecast soundings show
an environment over eastern KS and western MO nearly uncapped as
well. This is well east of the modified dryline in south central KS
which should be the primary focus. But there is some concern of
development within the moderately unstable and potentially uncapped
environment over eastern KS. Regardless, shear in this area is
somewhat marginal for organized updrafts. Rather, any activity ahead
of the main initiation area looks more multicellular with hail and
strong to potentially damaging winds and heavy rain the biggest
concern. Higher resolution convective models then bring in the
convection that developed over central KS into the area tonight in
the 03Z to 06Z. Instability may be limited by the time this area
moves into the forecast area and again, shear looks marginally
supportive of organized severe weather. So if this second round of
storms moves in, the potential for hail and winds as well as heavy
rain/localized flooding looks to be the biggest concern.
There may be a lull in activity during the day Tuesday with shortwave
ridging moving through the area. But thunderstorm chances return
Wednesday with the passage of another upper shortwave trough and
associated front. Models suggest robust instability will develop by
the afternoon hours ahead of the surface front. Shear again looks
marginal ahead of the front but increases substantially behind it.
So there may be window when the combination of instability and shear
is maximized in the vicinity of the front.
Through the extended portion of the forecast, several other
shortwave troughs will move through the area with each one bring
another chance of precipitation. But it appears that after the
Wednesday activity, moisture will be scoured out well to the south.
There may be some limited return ahead of the next shortwave
trough. This should lead to round of showers and a few storms Friday
afternoon into Saturday, depending on the actual timing of the wave.
By Sunday into Monday, more widespread showers and thunderstorms are
possible as ample low level moisture streams northward ahead of the
next wave and front.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MVFR to VFR conditions are expected this afternoon. It looks like two
main areas of thunderstorm activity will affect the overall area. The
first, which is east of the terminals should have little or no impact
in the vicinity of the terminals. Otherwise, focus shifts to what may
develop over central to eastern Kansas this afternoon and potentially
move into the terminals this evening. Short-term models are starting
to show this initial development, on the backside of the eastward
moving thick cirrus, and then moving this activity eastward.
Confidence is still not good with this as there are a number of
competing factors involved so have only included a VCTS mention at
this point. Updates, with more specific timing can be made once a
more clear/confident evolution of short-term trends is established.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
110 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Mon May 9 2016
Potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop at anytime today
will complicate forecast. Regional radars are showing scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing in strong low level moisture
convergence over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois. This
trend will likely continue through most of the morning hours as the
RAP and the SPC HRRR is showing additional thunderstorms developing
along and north of a warm front this morning. This front will move
north of the CWA by this afternoon in response to an approaching
upper level trough from the Central Plains. Additional
thunderstorms are expected to develop over Missouri this afternoon
as strong ascent increases ahead of the trough at the same time
there will be strong low level moisture convergence over the area.
Deep layer shear will also be increasing above 40kts which favors
organized convection per the latest SPC day 1 outlook, however the
main limiting factor will be amount of instability over the area.
This will be determined if the atmosphere has enough time to recover
from previous showers and thunderstorms and how much solar
insolation there is today to help heat up the atmosphere.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Mon May 9 2016
Negatively tilted trof will be rotating through the area tonight.
Ongoing convection ahead of the system will likely continue eastward
through the CWFA...even strengthening as the low level jet veers and
increases to 40-50kts. Think areal coverage/intensity of storms
will diminish as the trof axis moves southwest to northeast across
the area tonight. While I still think there will be scattered
convection behind the 500mb trof due to continuing low level warm
advection, the mid and upper level support should be waning...and I
don`t think it`s worth more than "scattered" wording in the forecast
for all but eastern sections of the area after the trof axis moves
through.
Think Tuesday will be a relative lull in convective activity across
the area. GFS forecast soundings are building a decent cap over the
area Tuesday which should limit potential for storms. While the NAM
soundings don`t have as much cap, the NAM tends to overforecast
boundary layer moisture. Additionally, shortwave ridging will be
building over the Mississippi Valley. That being said, can`t rule
out some afternoon and evening storms if local forcing can break the
cap. Steep lapse rates will produce CAPE around 2000 J/Kg which
will be good enough for isolated severe storms.
The longwave trof over the western CONUS is forecast to finally
eject northeast Wednesday with the associated cold front pushing
into Missouri Wednesday afternoon. Strong isolation along with
surface dewpoints in the mid 60s as well as the aforementioned steep
lapse rates are yielding CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/Kg...
actually surface CAPE values on the GFS are over 4000 J/Kg, but that
might be unrealistic. Limiting factor on severe weather might be
the rather unimpressive deep layer shear of only 20-25kts.
Regardless...eye-popping CAPE values bear watching over the next
couple of days, and severe storms do look likely. Thunderstorms
should end with the passage of the cold front late Wednesday night.
Cooler and drier weather still looks likely for the latter half of
the week in northwest flow behind the front. Another reinforcing
cold front is showing up in extended guidance Friday into Saturday.
Guidance is printing out precip across the area, think coverage will
be scattered at best due to lack of deep moisture since the cold
front which moved through our area Wednesday into Thursday will be
settling across the Gulf Coast limiting return flow.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
Busy fcst prd with several rounds of precip expected thru tonight.
An area of -SHRAs with isld thunder continues to expand in coverage
as it moves NE. Most of this activity is VFR but there are areas
of high end MVFR CIGs. Any heavier SHRA/TSTM could briefly drop
VSBY to IFR. Removed all prevailing and tempo thunder from previous
pkg as it appears most of this aftn will be void of thunder.
Another round of precip is expected this evng and this could be
more substantial but not confident enough with timing or coverage
to include any specifics attm. This activity is fcst to move E of
the MS Rvr around 6Z. There could be some addtnl precip late
tonight but spotty coverage with better chances SE of the STL
metro area. Lowering CIGs are more certain as model guidance
indicates at least MVFR CIGs across the area by Tue mrng. IFR CIGs
are certainly possible but not confident enough to go that low
yet. Either way...CIGs should improve to VFR by late Tue
mrng...possibly as late as early aftn if IFR CIGs dvlp.
Specifics for KSTL:
Active fcst pkg with several rounds of precip expected. First
round of precip will move into the terminal by 19Z...and should
continue thru the aftn/evng. Looks like mostly VFR rain for this
aftn but there could be some embedded thunder. Pockets of high end
MVFR CIGs are assoc with some of the heavier SHRAs.Addntl SHRAs
are possible late tonight but not confident on coverage so used
VCSH to handle it. MVFR CIGs should dvlp tonight in response to
moist low level sthrly flow. Possible that CIGs will deteriorate
to IFR but not confident enough in that scenario to include attm.
CIGs should improve to VFR by late Tue mrng..or early aftn if IFR
CIGs do dvlp. There is another chance for TSTMs Tue aftn but not
confident if any of the activity will directly impact the terminal
precludes inclusion attm...added VCTS after 21Z.
2%
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS HASTINGS NE
1210 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
UPDATED THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. STILL A COUPLE OF STRONGER
STORMS IN THE NC KANSAS POSSIBLE THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY WILL BE SUB SEVERE. HRRR AND 4KM WRF BOTH JUST
MOVE THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS WILL WITH WEAKENING TREND TONIGHT.
PULLED ANY EARLY MORNING RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY AS WELL. LOWERED
DEWPOINTS IN NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH A STEADY EAST WIND
PIPING IN DRY AIR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER FOR TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMOKE
FROM CANADA. THIS MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...IT APPEARS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
HAS STALLED IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT...WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND TO THE SOUTH WINDS ARE FROM
THE SOUTH.
THE UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE LOW THERE IS A WAVE THAT WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE UPPER WAVE
THAT IS MOVING THIS DIRECTION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS STILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL
AND WIND WITH THESE. ALL OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY COME TO AN END BY
MORNING.
MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE SUNDAY MORNING DRY...BUT A FEW HAVE
SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING. THE OTHER POSSIBILITY
IS SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE MORNING. HAVE ONLY KEPT SOME VERY
LOW POPS DURING THE MORNING.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING IN FROM
THE UPPER LOW ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
KEEPS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
ALOFT: THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH THE FLOW DEAMPLIFYING AND THE TROF
TRANSITIONING INTO THE ERN USA IN THE 5-10 DAY PERIOD. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON THE UPR LOW ALONG THE WY/NEB BORDER WILL DRIFT OVER NEB
WHILE THE TRAILING TROF INTO THE DESERT SW SWINGS UNDERNEATH INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A POTENT TROF WILL BE DIVING INTO THE
NRN ROCKIES. THIS TROF WILL CLOSE OFF MON NIGHT AND BECOME DOMINANT
AS IT SWINGS THRU THE DAKOTAS TUE-WED. THE INITIAL LOW/TROF WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE MEAN TROF AND DEAMPLIFY TUE AS IT HEADS FOR THE
GREAT LAKES. THE MEAN TROF WILL CROSS THE FCST AREA WED. SPREAD
INCREASES THU IN THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE GFS/EC/GEM...BUT THE GENERAL
THEME FOLLOWS THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH LOW AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW
DEVELOPING AND REMAINING THRU SAT...AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND THE TROF MOVES INTO THE E.
SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT MOVED THRU TODAY WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY ACROSS NRN KS. WELL-DEFINED LOW PRES OVER KS WILL BECOME
ILL-DEFINED MON-TUE...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS...SOME OF WHICH WILL
ATTEMPT TO DEPART THE CNTRL PLAINS FOR THE MIDWEST ONLY TO MEET
THEIR DEMISE. A STRONG COOL FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROF DROPPING
OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE FCST AREA TUE.
A TROF WILL FOLLOW WED WITH HIGH PRES SLIDING THRU THU. ANOTHER
CANADIAN COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU FRI WITH HIGH PRES SINKING INTO
THE NRN PLAINS SAT.
SOME DAILY DETAILS...
SUN NIGHT: TSTMS WILL BE ON-GOING AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY
LIFT N ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PROBABLY CONGEALING INTO ONE OR TWO
MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY A SVR WIND/HAIL
THREAT UNTIL ROUGHLY 10 PM. STRONG FORCING WITH A VORT MAX AND LEFT
FRONT QUAD OF 100 KT UPR-LVL JET STREAK. TSTMS END FROM SW-NE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OR CLEARING WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK PRES GRAD.
MON: PATCHY FOG AND A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS COULD LINGER IN THE MORNING.
ANY SUNSHINE WILL SELF-DESTRUCT INTO ADDITIONAL SCT TSTMS. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN SUN AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL WEAKEN TO 10-15 KTS WITH THE UPR LOW OVERHEAD. PULSE
STORMS WILL RULE. TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH DWPTS IN THE 50S WILL RESULT
IN UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE E OF HWY 281. SO THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
STRONG STORM WITH DIME SIZE HAIL AND G40 MPH.
TUE: DEPARTURE OF THE TROF AND ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN CONSIDERABLY MORE SUNSHINE. BUT A BAND OF SHWRS WILL MOVE
THRU PROBABLY DURING THE NIGHT. WE`VE PROBABLY OVER-PLAYED THE RISK
OF THUNDER AS DWPTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE 40S TUE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LACKING AND WILL REQUIRE FURTHER ASSESSMENT.
WED: POSSIBLY SOME LEFTOVER MORNING SHWRS IN THE COLD SECTOR. COOLER
WITH PLENTY OF DIURNAL STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY S-CNTRL NEB.
THU-SAT: PROBABLY DRY. A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SLATED FOR FRI...
BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. THE LAST 2 EC/GFS/GEM RUNS
ARE TRYING TO OUTPUT LIGHT/SPOTTY QPF AT TIMES...BUT THERE IS NO
CONSISTENT SIGNAL LEADING TO LOW PREDICTABILITY. THE FCST DOES
CONTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS...BUT WOULD PREFER
HAVING THE FCST DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
IFR CONDITIONS IN GENERAL ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH KEARNEY
AND GRAND ISLAND. PRETTY HIT AND MISS COVERAGE. MIDDLE PART OF THE
DAY SUNDAY LOOKS DRY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA
THE LAST PART OF THE FORECAST AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
835 PM PDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.UPDATE...SATELLITE AND HRRR PRECIPITATION FORECAST SHOW A LACK OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. I
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DECREASE SKY COVER IN NORTHERN/WESTERN INYO
COUNTY AND TO REMOVE SHOWER CHANCES. STILL SEEING ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES AS FORECAST WHICH
SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING. -HARRISON-
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
230 PM PDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS TURNED OUT TO BE TOO
STABLE TO ALLOW ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY
STILL SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING...BUT IF ANYTHING
DOES DEVELOP IT WILL REMAIN LIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH
OUT OF WESTERN CANADA WILL BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO CENTRAL NEVADA
TUESDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN THINGS SHOULD REMAIN TOO STABLE FOR
ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS ENERGY WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AS STRONG
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT JUMP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. AS IT STANDS
NOW...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS SOME COOLING
WILL TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH
WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN. EVEN WITH THOSE DIFFERENCES MODEL OUTPUT IS
VERY SIMILAR. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 IN CENTRAL NEVADA. MEANWHILE, HERE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA
TEMPERATURES WILL RETREAT SEVERAL DEGREES ALONG WITH AFTERNOON
BREEZES INCREASING. THE ECMWF BECOMES DEEPER BY NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD SHIFT PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PLENTY OF TIME TO ACCESS UPCOMING
MODEL RUNS BEFORE INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DIURNAL TRENDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SOUTH WINDS IN THE 9-12 KNOT RANGE MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...SHIFTING TO A LIGHTER EASTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY. A PUSH
OF SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 21Z.
OTHERWISE...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT WINDS FAVORING DIURNAL TRENDS WILL BE THE RULE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BUT LOOK UNLIKELY
TO IMPACT TAF SITES. SCT-BKN CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PIERCE
AVIATION...OUTLER
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
253 PM PDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS BRINGS NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AND END OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT BRINGS IN DRIER BUT
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND STARTS
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE
40S...EVEN RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S AT SOME SPOTS (KEKO KWMC).
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL EAST OF NORTHERN NEVADA...BUT
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE AROUND BROAD CLOSED LOW AND AFFECT
THE REGION. RAP MODEL SHOWING SOME DECENT SURFACE BASED CAPE
VALUES THAT EXCEED 1000 J/KG...BUT NOT MUCH SHEAR. A WEAK
DEFORMATION ZONE STILL CUTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA IN A NORTH TO
SOUTH ORIENTATION (POSITIONED NEAR HIGHWAY 95)...COINCIDING WHERE
THE BEST CAPE EXISTS. PULSE TYPE STORMS EXPECTED THAT COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL
BUT NO LONG LIVED CELLS ARE EXPECTED. LATER THIS EVENING...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TAKES HOLD AND THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY END CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS. SHOWERS MAY LAST TOWARD MIDNIGHT IN WHITE PINE COUNTY AND
ELY VICINITY...BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATE ELSEWHERE.
NEXT TROUGH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON COAST DIGS
TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY. GRADIENT FLOW TIGHTENS
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...
PUSHING LINGERING MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM. WINDS INCREASE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS LIKE ELKO COUNTY. A COLD
FRONT DRAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT GUSTS TO
25-35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST WIND OCCURRING LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SHEAR AXIS CUTS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NEVADA BUT
SURFACE DEW POINTS AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE NAM MODEL SHOWS SOME LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN (JARBIDGE WILDERNESS) OF NE NEVADA. THE
REMAINING AREAS WILL STAY DRY.
REGARDING TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MANY VALLEYS WILL
BE NEAR FREEZING. LEANED TOWARD THE NON BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
GIVEN THE MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS WITHIN THE AIR MASS CHANGE...AND
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM WITH
RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE RIDGE BUILDING FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME BREEZINESS BUT NOT
BAD AND THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES SEEN IN THE CENTRAL. MODELS THEN SHOW SOME
KIND OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL
DEPRESS THE RIDGE. SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN QUIET.
&&
.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE TAF SITES...WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN DIMINISHING TOWARDS MORNING TOMORROW. BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
88/86/86
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
238 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SUPPORT FAIR
SUNNY WEATHER FOR THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DAY TO DAY
WARMING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A WAVE PUSHING THROUGH MICHIGAN/ONTARIO AT
THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO MOVING INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER IS BEING FORCED DIRECTLY
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. WHILE NOT AT A WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...LATEST
MODEL DATA HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING THIS SOLUTION.
THIS LENDS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. BOTH THE
4KM NAM AND HRRR HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH TIMING THROUGH
04Z.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT TOWARDS OUR
REGION LATER TONIGHT. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE APPROACHING SURFACE
HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY DRY AIR AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION TO PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES. IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN
RECENT NIGHTS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 ALONG THE
LAKE SHORES TO THE MID 30S IN THE SRN TIER VALLEYS AND ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
STABLE SPRING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DAY OF AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES PERHAPS A TOUCH WARMER THAN TODAY WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BUT COOLER FOR THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS...OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS...WILL BE SEPARATED BY A RIDGE OF HIGHER
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO DIVIDE TO TWO REGIONS OF LOW PRESSURE AND
WILL MAINTAIN BENIGN AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND LAKE ERIE BASIN WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA STAYING FREE OF RAIN FOR THE DURATION.
DURING THIS PERIOD...BURGEONING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING INITIALLY
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE ON MONDAY...WITH ITS CORE THEN STRENGTHENING
AND SETTLING ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
ALOFT...ITS PARENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR AND COOL INITIAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE 30S ON MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FROST AWAY FROM THE LAKES.
NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE WITH 850MB TEMPS TO +7C WILL BOOST THE HIGH
TEMPS TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPS REACHING +10C ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE FULL SUN WILL RAISE TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATER ON IN THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN SWINGING THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
BETWEEN LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
JUNCTURE...THIS FEATURE STILL APPEARS IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AS IT PASSES THROUGH...ALONG WITH THE
CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL GIVEN BOTH ITS ATTENDANT
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF DRIER WEATHER
ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ITS PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND
DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO OUR REGION...WHICH HAS BEEN COVERED IN THE FORECAST
WITH SOME BROADBRUSH SHOWER CHANCES.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A FAIRLY WARM DAY OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT AND A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMBINING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 70S AREAWIDE...WITH WARMER READINGS THAN THESE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY IF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MANAGES TO HOLD OFF
LONG ENOUGH. AFTER THAT...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL USHER IN A
STEADY COOLING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS
PULLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FRIDAY...AND THEN TO THE
55 TO 60 RANGE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH/ATTENDANT COOL
POOL SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
THE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DESPITE CONSIDERABLE 4-6K FOOT CU
BASES THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR...SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLIES WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NY NEARSHORE WATERS THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
WHILE THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH OF A
GRADIENT TO PRODUCE MODERATE WESTERLIES ON LAKE ONTARIO. NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THUS PERSIST ON LAKE ONTARIO INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ044-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
950 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER OR NEAR
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE/EXTEND A
SLIGHT-SMALL CHANCE POP ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BASED ON OBSERVED HOURLY TRENDS.
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS MOISTURE POOLING ALONG A STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY IN VICINITY OF OR JUST NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. 925 AND
850MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS THIS MOISTURE EXTENDING IN A WEST-EAST BAND
WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. A MID
LEVEL S/W DEPICTED BY THE NEAR TERM MODELS AND CONFIRMED BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL LIFT NEWD
OVERNIGHT...CROSSING OUR REGION IN THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME. WHILE THE
CAM PRESENTATIONS DEPICT VIRTUALLY NOTHING ACROSS OUR REGION....THE
HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN DRIFTING NEWD ACROSS NE
GEORGIA INTO UPSTATE SC AHEAD OF THE S/W. THE HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING LIGHT PRECIP FALLING ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-40/85 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. GRANTED...PRECIP WILL BE FALLING
FROM A CLOUD BASE 8000-10000FT (AS PER 00Z GSO SOUNDING)...SO WHAT
RAIN THAT DOES REACH THE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT...TOTALING NO WORSE
THAN A HUNDREDTH OR A TRACE AT MOST SPOTS.
MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR 60-LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN /FLATTEN/ AND
TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON TUE. THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE VA BORDER TUE AF/EVE...SIMILAR TO THIS AFT/EVE.
WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE TRIAD...ON THE
ORDER OF 250-500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. HOWEVER...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED ALONG/NORTH OF THE VA BORDER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL
FORCING (OR A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN LARGELY
NORTH OF CENTRAL NC. DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES WILL BE
MORE POSSIBLE ON TUE THAN TODAY GIVEN A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE AFT/EVE HOURS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE
TIMING/MAGNITUDE/LOCATION OF SUCH FEATURES IS LOW AT THIS RANGE...
ESP IN AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...
WILL CONFINE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO AREAS NEAR THE VA
BORDER DURING THE LATE AFT/EVE HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO DAY...
ALBEIT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S. LOWS TUE NIGHT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...IN THE MID 60S. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...
WED-THU: A MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELONGATED AND SHEARED...WITH A
REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT THE MODELS SUGGEST WILL REACH THE GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION BY EARLY WED...THEN DRIFT TO THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY VICINITY (MAINLY NORTH OF NC) BY THU AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL BE
QUITE WARM /IN THE 80S/ AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOTH DAYS OWING TO
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM...AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S.
THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED...MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD
CONSEQUENTLY BE OVER THE NRN PIEDMONT AND NRN COASTAL PLAIN /IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE PASSING PERTURBATION ALOFT AND THE
FRONTAL ZONE/ WITH A LESSER CHANCE ELSEWHERE...PROBABLY DRIVEN BY AN
APPALACHIAN LEE TROUGH AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE EDGES
OF MORNING CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR AN MCV
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION...WHICH PARTICULARLY THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS OF THE GFS INDICATE MAY CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
SERVE AS A TRIGGER ON THU. ASIDE FROM MESOSCALE INFLUENCES SUCH AS
THE POSSIBLE MCV...THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE WEAK /GENERALLY BETWEEN 20-30 KTS/ AND SUPPORTIVE OF
PULSE AND MULTI-CELLULAR STORM MODES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: ON THE HEELS OF THE LEAD PERTURBATION EXITING
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THU AFTERNOON...AND FOLLOWING BRIEF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING LATE THU-EARLY THU NIGHT...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH ALOFT AND PRECEDING HEIGHTS FALLS WILL APPROACH/
CROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE THU NIGHT-FRI. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT THE MODELS INDICATE WILL
CROSS CENTRAL NC FRI AFT-EARLY FRI NIGHT...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ABOUT
6 HOURS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WHILE SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY MAXIMIZE DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WIDESPREAD MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND STILL-RELATIVELY-WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO
INCREASE ONLY TO AROUND 30 KTS...SHOULD MITIGATE ANY APPRECIABLE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
SAT-MON: A VORTEX WILL SETTLE SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...AND THIS WILL CAUSE A SECONDARY POLAR
SURFACE FRONT TO CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES CENTERED AROUND
LATE SAT OR SAT EVE. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL COMPRESSIONALLY WARM AND DRY THE AIR IN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...AS WELL AS LIMIT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE
FRONT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A WARM AND MAINLY DRY DAY SAT...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHTEST OF CHANCES OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER NEAR THE VA
BORDER DURING THE LATE AFT OR EVE. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT
IN A MILD AND DRY DAY SUN...BUT THE RETREAT OF THE FRONTAL ZONE --
BENEATH AN AXIS OF 850-700 MB WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION-- WILL YIELD
INCREASING CLOUDS SUN NIGHT...AND SLIGHT CONVECTIVE CHANCES MON.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM MONDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THOUGH THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. THIS SHOULD HOLD THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF CENTRAL NC.
HOWEVER.... WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE... EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY SOME MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT... BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY MID TO LATE MORNING TUESDAY (06-12KT).
LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MID-TO-LATE WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AND GREATEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED IN ASSOC/W A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...BSD/VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
637 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. BETTER
RAIN CHANCES MATERIALIZE ON THURSDAY AS A FRONT DROPS INTO THE
AREA, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. DRIER AIR IS SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND AS IS A SLIGHT COOLDOWN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 640 PM SUNDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS AND CUT BACK ON AREAL
COVERAGE FOR AREAS WHERE WE DID HAVE POPS FOR THIS EVENING. COLUMN
JUST LOOKS TOO DRY FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO OCCUR AND LATEST
HI-RES MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NOTHING DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. HAVE
CHANGED WORDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM ISOLATED/SCATTERED TO
REFLECT INCREASED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE WILL DROP POPS COMPLETELY WITH NEXT UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE MAIN CONCERN/CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN MORE BULLISH AND CONVECTIVE CUMULUS
ARE UNDERWAY. SEEMS PROFILES NEED A LITTLE MORE PRIMING FROM MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SET TO ADVANCE INTO THE AREA. HAVE HELD POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS. SPC HAS PLACED THE NORTHERN
MOST AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK. BEYOND THIS ACTIVITY LATER
TONIGHT...ALL IS QUIET. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ONCE AGAIN WENT JUST
ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING OR WHAT CAN BE
INTERPRETED AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
FOR THE SHORT TERM. WITH PW VALUES HOVERING TOWARD ONE INCH AND
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL VELOCITIES...A DRY FORECAST IS IN
ORDER. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STILL ON THE WARM SIDE FOR MONDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD 90S. IT LOOKS LIKE JUST ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY TO COOL READINGS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL, TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THE BEACHES WILL
ENJOY A HEALTHY SEA BREEZE. THIS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST ON
THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTAINING SMALL SCALE IMPULSES. A COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. THURSDAY WILL TURN OUT A BIT
MORE CLOUDY AND WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THIS FRONT MAY MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME
SLIGHTLY BOLSTERED PVA ALOFT. THIS PERIOD NOW REPRESENTS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE LONG TERM BUT MAY ALSO LEAD TO A
POSSIBLY RAIN-FREE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONDITIONS WERE JUST TOO DRY THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION SO IT SHOULD BE A PRETTY QUIET NIGHT. MOISTURE PROFILES
DO NOT SUPPORT FOG...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG RIGHT
AT SUNRISE. MONDAY...SOME BROKEN JET CIRRUS IS FORECAST OVER MUCH
OF THE CWA. AGAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. WEST NORTHWEST
FLOW IS FORECAST...GUSTY AROUND MAX HEATING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED-FRI
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
RATHER ROUTINE OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL. A BACKDOOR FRONT
SHOULD`T MAKE ENOUGH PROGRESS SOUTH TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...GENERALLY STEADY STATE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE OVERNIGHT MONDAY VIA LOW LEVEL JETTING. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY ...WEST-EAST ELONGATED HIGH OFFSHORE WILL MAKE
FOR RATHER LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND WAVES WILL BE QUITE SMALL AND COEXIST WITH A MINOR ESE WELL
FOR A TOTAL DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 3 FT. THE HIGH MOVES
EASTWARD AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY BUT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ENTERS THE CAROLINAS. THESE TWO OFFSET EACH OTHER WITH RESPECT TO
THE GRADIENT LOCALLY AND EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COAST MUCH OF FRIDAY
VEERING FLOW TO WESTERLY AND SHAVING A FEW KNOTS OFF OF OVERALL
SPEEDS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON AND WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. THE SOUTHERN BEACHES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH WILL BE CLOSE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ106-
108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
MARINE...REK/MBB/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
620 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. BETTER
RAIN CHANCES MATERIALIZE ON THURSDAY AS A FRONT DROPS INTO THE
AREA, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. DRIER AIR IS SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND AS IS A SLIGHT COOLDOWN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
THE MAIN CONCERN/CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN MORE BULLISH AND
CONVECTIVE CUMULUS ARE UNDERWAY. SEEMS PROFILES NEED A LITTLE MORE
PRIMING FROM MID LEVEL MOISTURE SET TO ADVANCE INTO THE AREA. HAVE
HELD POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS. SPC HAS PLACED
THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK. BEYOND THIS ACTIVITY
LATER TONIGHT...ALL IS QUIET. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ONCE AGAIN WENT
JUST ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING OR WHAT CAN BE INTERPRETED AS
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WITH PW VALUES HOVERING TOWARD ONE INCH AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
VERTICAL VELOCITIES...A DRY FORECAST IS IN ORDER. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IS STILL ON THE WARM SIDE FOR MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 90S.
IT LOOKS LIKE JUST ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVES
ACROSS TUESDAY TO COOL READINGS EVER SO SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY... A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE MINIMAL, TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THE BEACHES WILL ENJOY A
HEALTHY SEA BREEZE. THIS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTAINING SMALL SCALE IMPULSES. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DROP INTO
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. THURSDAY WILL TURN OUT A BIT MORE CLOUDY AND
WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THIS FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME SLIGHTLY BOLSTERED PVA
ALOFT. THIS PERIOD NOW REPRESENTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING
THE LONG TERM BUT MAY ALSO LEAD TO A POSSIBLY RAIN-FREE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONDITIONS WERE JUST TOO DRY THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION SO IT SHOULD BE A PRETTY QUIET NIGHT. MOISTURE PROFILES
DO NOT SUPPORT FOG...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG RIGHT
AT SUNRISE. MONDAY...SOME BROKEN JET CIRRUS IS FORECAST OVER MUCH
OF THE CWA. AGAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. WEST NORTHWEST
FLOW IS FORECAST...GUSTY AROUND MAX HEATING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED-FRI
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
RATHER ROUTINE OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL. A
BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD`T MAKE ENOUGH PROGRESS SOUTH TO HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
GENERALLY STEADY STATE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE OVERNIGHT MONDAY VIA LOW LEVEL JETTING. SEAS WILL BE
2-4 FEET.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
WEST-EAST ELONGATED HIGH OFFSHORE WILL MAKE FOR RATHER LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVES WILL BE
QUITE SMALL AND COEXIST WITH A MINOR ESE WELL FOR A TOTAL DOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 3 FT. THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY BUT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE CAROLINAS.
THESE TWO OFFSET EACH OTHER WITH RESPECT TO THE GRADIENT LOCALLY AND
EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY
NEAR THE COAST MUCH OF FRIDAY VEERING FLOW TO WESTERLY AND SHAVING A
FEW KNOTS OFF OF OVERALL SPEEDS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON AND WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. THE SOUTHERN BEACHES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH WILL BE CLOSE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
254 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. BETTER
RAIN CHANCES MATERIALIZE ON THURSDAY AS A FRONT DROPS INTO THE
AREA, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. DRIER AIR IS SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND AS IS A SLIGHT COOLDOWN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
THE MAIN CONCERN/CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN MORE BULLISH AND
CONVECTIVE CUMULUS ARE UNDERWAY. SEEMS PROFILES NEED A LITTLE MORE
PRIMING FROM MID LEVEL MOISTURE SET TO ADVANCE INTO THE AREA. HAVE
HELD POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS. SPC HAS PLACED
THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK. BEYOND THIS ACTIVITY
LATER TONIGHT...ALL IS QUIET. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ONCE AGAIN WENT
JUST ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING OR WHAT CAN BE INTERPRETED AS
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WITH PW VALUES HOVERING TOWARD ONE INCH AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
VERTICAL VELOCITIES...A DRY FORECAST IS IN ORDER. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IS STILL ON THE WARM SIDE FOR MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 90S.
IT LOOKS LIKE JUST ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVES
ACROSS TUESDAY TO COOL READINGS EVER SO SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY... A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE MINIMAL, TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THE BEACHES WILL ENJOY A
HEALTHY SEA BREEZE. THIS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTAINING SMALL SCALE IMPULSES. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DROP INTO
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. THURSDAY WILL TURN OUT A BIT MORE CLOUDY AND
WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THIS FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME SLIGHTLY BOLSTERED PVA
ALOFT. THIS PERIOD NOW REPRESENTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING
THE LONG TERM BUT MAY ALSO LEAD TO A POSSIBLY RAIN-FREE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THIS TAF CYCLE. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION 00Z-06Z MAY TOUCH OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TERMINALS. FOR NOW...THE
EXPECTED COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT ANY INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL LOCATION. 5SM IN HZ OR BR POSSIBLE 9Z-13Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED-FRI
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
RATHER ROUTINE OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL. A
BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD`T MAKE ENOUGH PROGRESS SOUTH TO HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
GENERALLY STEADY STATE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE OVERNIGHT MONDAY VIA LOW LEVEL JETTING. SEAS WILL BE
2-4 FEET.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
WEST-EAST ELONGATED HIGH OFFSHORE WILL MAKE FOR RATHER LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVES WILL BE
QUITE SMALL AND COEXIST WITH A MINOR ESE WELL FOR A TOTAL DOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 3 FT. THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY BUT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE CAROLINAS.
THESE TWO OFFSET EACH OTHER WITH RESPECT TO THE GRADIENT LOCALLY AND
EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY
NEAR THE COAST MUCH OF FRIDAY VEERING FLOW TO WESTERLY AND SHAVING A
FEW KNOTS OFF OF OVERALL SPEEDS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON AND WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. THE SOUTHERN BEACHES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH WILL BE CLOSE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
144 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA
LATE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
THE NAM AND HRRR STILL SHOWING A LITTLE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA TODAY AND MAY ACTUALLY SNEAK INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. THE NW FLOW OF SAT BEGINS TO
TURN MORE ZONAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD KEEP ANY LARGE SCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FROM RIDING AS
FAR SOUTH AS OUR LATITUDE.
THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS TO CONSIDER IN DETERMINING THE RISK AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING THE MID-LEVEL CAP ERODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT THE
SAME TIME...LIFT WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE N AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT GAINS PROXIMITY. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES MAXIMIZE AROUND 800
J/KG. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PEAK NEAR 7 DEG C/KM. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 40 KT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT ONE AND A THIRD INCHES. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS LACKING WITH THE BRUNT OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINING
WELL N OF THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.
SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...WHICH WERE SHOWING THE
CONVECTION REMAINING TO OUR N...HAVE NOW COME A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS THIS CYCLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING FURTHER SOUTH AND AT LEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ONE-THIRD TO ONE-
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...IN THESE AREAS...WILL INCLUDE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS EVE. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVE...AND SKIES WILL TREND TOWARD CLEAR DURING
THE NIGHT.
RISING HEIGHTS AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL YIELD A WARM DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE REGION. AS YOU NEAR THE COAST...A PINNED
SEABREEZE SHOULD KEEP THE BEACHES FROM RISING ABOVE THE LOWER TO MID
80S. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MID AND UPPER
60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA MON. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WITH A WARM RIDGE ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
SUBSIDENCE. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM AIR THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS PERIOD. EARLY SUMMER-LIKE HEAT IS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 DEGREES. A PINNED SEABREEZE BOTH
DAYS...BUT ESPECIALLY MON...SHOULD KEEP THE BEACHES AND ADJACENT
COMMUNITIES COOLEST...MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT H5 AS THE
MORE DYNAMIC FEATURES IMPACT CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER STATES.
A FEW EMBEDDED IMPULSES COULD COME INTO PLAY BUT NOTHING EXPECTED
TO GENERATE ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WED-THU TIME FRAME. THE AIR-
MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY
COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS. INCREASING SUPPORT
ALOFT... AN APPROACHING FRONT...AND HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
DECIDED TO BUMP POPS UPWARD DURING FRIDAY. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION DURING SATURDAY AS MOISTURE POOLING OCCURS ONCE
AGAIN AHEAD OF ANOTHER BOUNDARY SLATED TO PASS THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE SECOND BOUNDARY ARRIVES THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE DISPLACED OFFSHORE KEEPING COVERAGE OF
ANY SHRA/TSRA ON THE LOWER END. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THOUGH COULD SEE A COOLER/DRIER AIR-
MASS MOVE INTO CAROLINAS JUST BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THIS TAF CYCLE. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION 00Z-06Z MAY TOUCH OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TERMINALS. FOR NOW...THE
EXPECTED COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT ANY INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL LOCATION. 5SM IN HZ OR BR POSSIBLE 9Z-13Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED-FRI
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
WATERS AND MAY SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING ON MON. W WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO SW BY/DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SW WINDS WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE FEAR
WATERS...THE DIRECTION MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR BRIEFLY E
OR NE TOWARD MORNING WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY. THE STRONGEST
WINDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH WANING
LOW-LEVEL NOCTURNAL JET. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 20 KT
EARLY...OTHERWISE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT THIS PERIOD. SEAS
WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME 5 FT SEAS WILL BE PRESENT
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS TONIGHT WILL
BE SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE MON
MORNING. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DOMINATE MON WITH THE WINDS BACKING TO
SSW DURING TUE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVE HOURS WITH SEABREEZE INFLUENCES KICKING UP WIND
SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH UP TO 4 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE WED-THU WITH
WEAK INLAND TROUGHING. AS A RESULT...A S-SW FETCH WILL PREVAIL
WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT OR LESS
EACH DAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1025 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL FEATURE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE WEEK. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AS A COLD FRONT REACHES THE
AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT DURING
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
THE NAM AND HRRR STILL SHOWING A LITTLE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA TODAY AND MAY ACTUALLY SNEAK INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. THE NW FLOW OF SAT BEGINS TO
TURN MORE ZONAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD KEEP ANY LARGE SCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FROM RIDING AS
FAR SOUTH AS OUR LATITUDE.
THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS TO CONSIDER IN DETERMINING THE RISK AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING THE MID-LEVEL CAP ERODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT THE
SAME TIME...LIFT WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE N AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT GAINS PROXIMITY. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES MAXIMIZE AROUND 800
J/KG. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PEAK NEAR 7 DEG C/KM. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 40 KT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT ONE AND A THIRD INCHES. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS LACKING WITH THE BRUNT OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINING
WELL N OF THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.
SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...WHICH WERE SHOWING THE
CONVECTION REMAINING TO OUR N...HAVE NOW COME A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS THIS CYCLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING FURTHER SOUTH AND AT LEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ONE-THIRD TO ONE-
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...IN THESE AREAS...WILL INCLUDE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS EVE. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVE...AND SKIES WILL TREND TOWARD CLEAR DURING
THE NIGHT.
RISING HEIGHTS AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL YIELD A WARM DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE REGION. AS YOU NEAR THE COAST...A PINNED
SEABREEZE SHOULD KEEP THE BEACHES FROM RISING ABOVE THE LOWER TO MID
80S. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MID AND UPPER
60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA MON. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WITH A WARM RIDGE ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
SUBSIDENCE. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM AIR THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS PERIOD. EARLY SUMMER-LIKE HEAT IS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 DEGREES. A PINNED SEABREEZE BOTH
DAYS...BUT ESPECIALLY MON...SHOULD KEEP THE BEACHES AND ADJACENT
COMMUNITIES COOLEST...MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT H5 AS THE
MORE DYNAMIC FEATURES IMPACT CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER STATES.
A FEW EMBEDDED IMPULSES COULD COME INTO PLAY BUT NOTHING EXPECTED
TO GENERATE ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WED-THU TIME FRAME. THE AIR-
MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY
COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS. INCREASING SUPPORT
ALOFT... AN APPROACHING FRONT...AND HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
DECIDED TO BUMP POPS UPWARD DURING FRIDAY. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION DURING SATURDAY AS MOISTURE POOLING OCCURS ONCE
AGAIN AHEAD OF ANOTHER BOUNDARY SLATED TO PASS THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE SECOND BOUNDARY ARRIVES THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE DISPLACED OFFSHORE KEEPING COVERAGE OF
ANY SHRA/TSRA ON THE LOWER END. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THOUGH COULD SEE A COOLER/DRIER AIR-
MASS MOVE INTO CAROLINAS JUST BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE WIND SHEAR EARLY SINCE KLTX VWP SHOWING 25 TO 30
KT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD MIX OUT BY
14Z. ANOTHER CONCERN IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT WILL TOUCH OFF
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA INTO THIS EVE. FOR NOW...THE CHANCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
WATERS AND MAY SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING ON MON. W WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO SW BY/DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SW WINDS WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE FEAR
WATERS...THE DIRECTION MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR BRIEFLY E
OR NE TOWARD MORNING WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY. THE STRONGEST
WINDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH WANING
LOW-LEVEL NOCTURNAL JET. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 20 KT
EARLY...OTHERWISE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT THIS PERIOD. SEAS
WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME 5 FT SEAS WILL BE PRESENT
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS TONIGHT WILL
BE SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE MON
MORNING. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DOMINATE MON WITH THE WINDS BACKING TO
SSW DURING TUE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVE HOURS WITH SEABREEZE INFLUENCES KICKING UP WIND
SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH UP TO 4 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE WED-THU WITH
WEAK INLAND TROUGHING. AS A RESULT...A S-SW FETCH WILL PREVAIL
WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT OR LESS
EACH DAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. THE NEXT
HIGH TIDE HERE IS JUST BEFORE NOON.
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL BEGIN TO WANE WITH THE NEW MOON NOW A
COUPLE DAYS BEHIND US. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR
NEAR MIDDAY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER IS EXPECTED WITH THE LATE NIGHT HIGH TIDE.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS RECENT DAYS THAT MINOR FLOODING WILL
OCCUR AT THE BEACHES WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE AT THE
BEACHES IS NEAR 10 PM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD/SHK
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...RAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
945 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT...INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES IN THE SE ON TRACK WITH PCPN TRACKING BACK TO THE
NW ALONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. PCPN WILL STRUGGLE FOR A PERIOD
AS PWAT VALUES REMAIN UNDER AN INCH ACROSS THE FA WITH DRY
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IMPEDING EFFICIENT RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE PLACEMENT AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...MAINLY SE ND. OTHER
CONCERN IS DIMINISHING THREAT FOR THUNDER. HRRR IS (FINALLY)
BEGINNING TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON TRUE RADAR TRENDS AND WILL
USE HRRR AS INITIAL GUIDANCE THROUGH 00ZZ...FOLLOWED BY FCST BLEND
FOR REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM.
UPPER LOW OVER WRN SD AND SE BNDRY LVL FLOW RESULTING IN DECENT
H850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS SRN MN...WEAKENING INTO FAR SRN
VALLEY. PWATS IN THIS ZONE ARE AROUND AN INCH WITH RADAR DEPICTING
A LINE OF SHOWERS FROM VALLEY CITY THROUGH ST CLOUD MIN...RIGHT
AHEAD OF BAND OF 1 INCH PWATS. EXPECT THIS BAND TO LIFT NORTH
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH AND BAND NOT
EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES FURTHER NORTH...HENCE
DIMINISHING POPS BY MID EVENING. DO EXPECT SOME BREAK IN ACTIVITY
IN THE WAHPETON TO ELBOW LAKE AREA BY EARLY EVENING.
UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH INTO SW ND BY MORNING AND MERGES WITH WRN
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SW MT. BY MID TUE MORNING A STRONGER
UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF MILES CITY MT...DRIFTING
SLOWLY EAST INTO SW ND BY 03Z WED THEN LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO N
CNTRL ND BY MID DAY WED. WAVES OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE VALLEY AS WEAK VORTICES ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND
MOISTURE FETCH FROM CNTRL PLAINS BRINGS SOME MOISTURE INTO
NORTHERN TIER. MAIN AXIS OF GULF MOISTURE DOES HOWEVER SHIFT EAST
OF AREA BY NOON WED. SCT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE VALLEY AS
WELL AS IN THE FAR NW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER TURTLE
MTN REGION. POTENTIAL FOR SOME COLD AIR FUNNEL ACTIVITY DOES EXIST
W AND NW OF DEVILS LAKE (SHOULD REMAIN W OF OUR AREA).
ALSO CAN EXPECT A COOLING TRENDS WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
COOLING TREND ACROSS REGION AND PDS OF SCT SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN
ZONES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN PORTIONS OF NE ND BY FRI
MORNING...BRINING A POTENTIAL FOR FROST EARLY FRI MORNING.
SPLIT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
WESTERN CANADA DE-AMPLIFIES. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THEN WEAKEN AT DAY 7.
THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE GFS WAS
VACILLATING OVER THE AREA FOR FRI. BY SAT THE ECMWF WAS
FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO ON FRI AND MON AND
DECREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES ON SUN. HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASE A
DEGREE OR TWO ON SAT FROM THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO MVFR RANGE FROM SOUTHERN VALLEY
IN EARLY MORNING PERIOD TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE AND IMPACT DVL OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH MORE
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS HOURS EARLY TUE MORNING AND SCT THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM FOR SECTIONS OF
NW MN WITH DRY FUELS...RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT
RANGE... AND SE WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH (GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ALONG
AND WEST OF THE VALLEY). FARTHER SOUTH IN MINNESOTA...INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND APPROACHING RAIN WILL KEEP RH VALUES HIGHER AND
REDUCE OVERALL WILDFIRE THREAT.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT WILL DIMINISH WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES HIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
FIRE WEATHER...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
623 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG HWY 200 CORRIDOR RAPIDLY DISSIPATING
AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR MASS. WILL BEGIN LOWERING POPS THROUGH
06Z TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTH. CONVECTION APPROACH
SISSETON HILLS FROM SOUTH IS ROTATING NW...AND MAY CLIP FAR
SARGENT COUNTY BUT FOR THE MOST PART WILL STAY CLEAR OF THE CWA.
ACTIVITY SW MN MORE OF A CONCERN AND WILL CONTINUE INCREASING POPS
FROM THE SOUTH LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE DECREASED SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE PLACEMENT AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...MAINLY SE ND. OTHER
CONCERN IS DIMINISHING THREAT FOR THUNDER. HRRR IS (FINALLY)
BEGINNING TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON TRUE RADAR TRENDS AND WILL
USE HRRR AS INITIAL GUIDANCE THROUGH 00ZZ...FOLLOWED BY FCST BLEND
FOR REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM.
UPPER LOW OVER WRN SD AND SE BNDRY LVL FLOW RESULTING IN DECENT
H850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS SRN MN...WEAKENING INTO FAR SRN
VALLEY. PWATS IN THIS ZONE ARE AROUND AN INCH WITH RADAR DEPICTING
A LINE OF SHOWERS FROM VALLEY CITY THROUGH ST CLOUD MIN...RIGHT
AHEAD OF BAND OF 1 INCH PWATS. EXPECT THIS BAND TO LIFT NORTH
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH AND BAND NOT
EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES FURTHER NORTH...HENCE
DIMINISHING POPS BY MID EVENING. DO EXPECT SOME BREAK IN ACTIVITY
IN THE WAHPETON TO ELBOW LAKE AREA BY EARLY EVENING.
UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH INTO SW ND BY MORNING AND MERGES WITH WRN
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SW MT. BY MID TUE MORNING A STRONGER
UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF MILES CITY MT...DRIFTING
SLOWLY EAST INTO SW ND BY 03Z WED THEN LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO N
CNTRL ND BY MID DAY WED. WAVES OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE VALLEY AS WEAK VORTICES ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND
MOISTURE FETCH FROM CNTRL PLAINS BRINGS SOME MOISTURE INTO
NORTHERN TIER. MAIN AXIS OF GULF MOISTURE DOES HOWEVER SHIFT EAST
OF AREA BY NOON WED. SCT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE VALLEY AS
WELL AS IN THE FAR NW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER TURTLE
MTN REGION. POTENTIAL FOR SOME COLD AIR FUNNEL ACTIVITY DOES EXIST
W AND NW OF DEVILS LAKE (SHOULD REMAIN W OF OUR AREA).
ALSO CAN EXPECT A COOLING TRENDS WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
COOLING TREND ACROSS REGION AND PDS OF SCT SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN
ZONES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN PORTIONS OF NE ND BY FRI
MORNING...BRINING A POTENTIAL FOR FROST EARLY FRI MORNING.
SPLIT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
WESTERN CANADA DE-AMPLIFIES. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THEN WEAKEN AT DAY 7.
THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE GFS WAS
VACILLATING OVER THE AREA FOR FRI. BY SAT THE ECMWF WAS
FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO ON FRI AND MON AND
DECREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES ON SUN. HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASE A
DEGREE OR TWO ON SAT FROM THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO MVFR RANGE FROM SOUTHERN VALLEY
IN EARLY MORNING PERIOD TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE AND IMPACT DVL OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH MORE
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS HOURS EARLY TUE MORNING AND SCT THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM FOR SECTIONS OF
NW MN WITH DRY FUELS...RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT
RANGE... AND SE WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH (GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ALONG
AND WEST OF THE VALLEY). FARTHER SOUTH IN MINNESOTA...INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND APPROACHING RAIN WILL KEEP RH VALUES HIGHER AND
REDUCE OVERALL WILDFIRE THREAT.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT WILL DIMINISH WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES HIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
FIRE WEATHER...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS CLEVELAND OH
339 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CORRECTED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND
ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POP BACK INTO NWRN PA. SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY
MADE IT ONTO THE LAKE UPSTREAM FROM KERI AND LATEST HRRR ALSO
SUPPORTS A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE.
ORIGINAL...GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS A WEAK LOW NEAR SRN LAKE HURON WHICH IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BUT HAS STILL MANAGED
TO HELP GENERATE A HEALTHY CU FIELD ACROSS ERN LWR MI/SERN ONTARIO
AND WRN NY. THE LAKE HAS ACTED AS TO STABILIZE THE AREA WITH NO CU
OVER THE WATER OR INLAND NERN OHIO/NWRN PA. GIVEN THIS BELIEVE
POPS CAN BE REMOVED FROM NWRN PA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY BUT THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS THE PAST FEW HOURS IN THICKENING CIRRUS...LIKELY IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING JET STREAK ACROSS THE AREA. TRENDS WOULD
SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOWEVER AFTER
MIDNIGHT THIS JET STREAK BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST SO AM EXPECTING THIS
TO THIN. LATE TONIGHT HOWEVER...MODELS DEPICT MOISTURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTH TOWARD
THE AREA. MODELS HOWEVER ARE ALREADY STARTING TO DIVERGE WITH THE
GFS SHOWING MORE ADVANCEMENT VS THE NAM. WILL GO AHEAD AND BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING
AND PC/MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
TOWARD MORNING THAT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WORDING IN A COUPLE
COUNTIES. LOWS IN THE 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S NORTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE...IN GENERAL...SIMILAR THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...THE DIFFERENCES THEY DO HAVE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON THE LOCAL FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY. THE NAM REMAINS LESS
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS IT NORTH MUCH QUICKER. AS A RESULT THE NAM GUIDANCE FOR
CLEVELAND MONDAY IS 67 PERCENT POPS WHILE THE NAM IS AT JUST 5
PERCENT. POPS AT TOLEDO JUST AS DIFFERENT GFS 805 VS NAM 10%. FOR
COMPARISON THE ECMWF STARTS OUT CLOSER TO THE NAM BUT BY 00Z
TUESDAY IS STARTING TO LOOK MORE LIKE THE GFS. WILL TAILOR THE
FORECAST IN THIS MANNER BUILDING POPS THROUGH THE CHANCE CATEGORY
SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH HIGHEST NUMBERS FAR
SOUTHWEST. WILL REACH A LOW CHANCE POP ALONG A KCLE-KYNG LINE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP KERI DRY. MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS
BEGINNING TO LINE UP BETTER WILL BRING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND LIKELY INTO THE FAR WEST. TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT MORE OF THE SAME WITH LIKELY POPS CARVING OUT A
LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
WILL FINALLY REACH THE AREA AND THEN MOVE NORTH. BY EVENING A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER BASED ON LI`S AND
CAPE...TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL MONDAY RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF MILD ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60/S AND LOW 70/S...BUT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO COOL
AND WET BEHIND A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA STARTING ON THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50/S.
THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDER. CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY. THE NEXT REINFORCING COLD FRONT...AT LEAST
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF...ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. ALL THE WHILE 850H TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US. THIS SCENARIO WILL COMBINE FOR A CHANCE
OF RAIN FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE SOMEWHAT
OPTIMISTIC. RAIN/CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY IN THE SNOWBELT WITH
LAKE INDUCED LAPSE RATES AROUND 12C. NOT UNTIL MIDWEEK DOES THE
AIRMASS LOOK TO MODERATE...SO UNTIL THEN...WET AND COOL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDS OVER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. SOME HIGH
20K FEET CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY 10K FEET CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAKE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THIS FEATURE COULD
BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER ERI...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ENOUGH COVERAGE TO JUSTIFY PUTTING VCSH IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT RIDGING WILL CLEAR
SKIES AND DECOUPLE WINDS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 10 PM
TONIGHT. THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE LAKE AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL OHIO. THE FRONT WILL EITHER
WEAKEN OR STALL ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO BEFORE THE WINDS REALLY HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME SOUTHERLY. EVENTUALLY THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WIND WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST KICKING UP WAVES IN THE EASTERN BASIN. THE
WEST WINDS WILL RELAX INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
628 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINAS TODAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES
ACROSS OUR REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS FRONT MOVING FARTHER NORTH INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE CWFA AS WELL.
FOR TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT FROM THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES
ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP INDUCE SOME WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION (800 MB-600 MB) ACROSS THE SRN CWFA. THE RESULT WILL
BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS MOSTLY KEEP THE SHOWER THREAT IN THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATER HRRR RUNS TRY TO CREEP IT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S WHERE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF PCPN
IS EXPECTED...TO THE UPPER 60S WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THIN AND
SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. WE
SHOULD SEE A RESPITE IN THE THREAT FOR PCPN.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL CAUSE CLOUDS
AND SOME PCPN TO DEVELOP...SLOWLY SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER SO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARE ONLY WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
ON MONDAY...A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODELS...THE NAM...AND
THE ECMWF WERE USED FOR THE FORECAST. THE GFS LOOKED OVERDONE IN
TERMS OF HEAVIER QPF ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES. STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY CREEP INTO OUR SRN CWFA DURING THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTHWARD INTO NRN INDIANA AND NRN OHIO. THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT HAVE
DECIDED TO STAY AT HIGH CHANCE AT THIS TIME. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOW...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ONLY SHOWERS.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
A LITTLE MORE INTO OUR AREA BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME QUASI
STATIONARY AT SOME POINT. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASE IN PCPN CHANCES ALONG WITH AN ADDED THREAT FOR
THUNDER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGER OF
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COVERAGE WANING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. MEANWHILE...OUR LINGERING BOUNDARY MAY
FINALLY PUSH AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE OR CONSENSUS GUIDANCE (MOS AND
RAW MODEL TEMPERATURE OUTPUT) THROUGH THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S. A COLD
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...LEADING TO A DRYING TREND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST...AFFECTING THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES THIS MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY AFFECTING DAYTON DURING THE AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THESE
SHOWERS ARE UNLIKELY TO REDUCE FLIGHT CATEGORIES...AND BECAUSE
THEIR TIMING IS NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN...THEY WILL BE COVERED IN
THE TAFS WITH A VCSH.
WESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL SET UP TODAY FOR COLUMBUS
AND DAYTON...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR CINCINNATI. THESE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN OVERNIGHT...BEFORE EVENTUALLY
PICKING UP SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY
MORNING.
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND BECOME THICKER
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GREATER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ALSO MOVE IN ON
MONDAY...JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY POSSIBLE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
417 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINAS TODAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES
ACROSS OUR REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS FRONT MOVING FARTHER NORTH INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE CWFA AS WELL.
FOR TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT FROM THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES
ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP INDUCE SOME WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION (800 MB-600 MB) ACROSS THE SRN CWFA. THE RESULT WILL
BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS MOSTLY KEEP THE SHOWER THREAT IN THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATER HRRR RUNS TRY TO CREEP IT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S WHERE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF PCPN
IS EXPECTED...TO THE UPPER 60S WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THIN AND
SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. WE
SHOULD SEE A RESPITE IN THE THREAT FOR PCPN.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL CAUSE CLOUDS
AND SOME PCPN TO DEVELOP...SLOWLY SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER SO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARE ONLY WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
ON MONDAY...A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODELS...THE NAM...AND
THE ECMWF WERE USED FOR THE FORECAST. THE GFS LOOKED OVERDONE IN
TERMS OF HEAVIER QPF ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES. STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY CREEP INTO OUR SRN CWFA DURING THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTHWARD INTO NRN INDIANA AND NRN OHIO. THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT HAVE
DECIDED TO STAY AT HIGH CHANCE AT THIS TIME. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOW...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ONLY SHOWERS.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
A LITTLE MORE INTO OUR AREA BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME QUASI
STATIONARY AT SOME POINT. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASE IN PCPN CHANCES ALONG WITH AN ADDED THREAT FOR
THUNDER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGER OF
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COVERAGE WANING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. MEANWHILE...OUR LINGERING BOUNDARY MAY
FINALLY PUSH AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE OR CONSENSUS GUIDANCE (MOS AND
RAW MODEL TEMPERATURE OUTPUT) THROUGH THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S. A COLD
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...LEADING TO A DRYING TREND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE CINCINNATI TAF
SITES...AND A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ASIDE FROM A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS
NEAR COLUMBUS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT BEFORE MORNING.
ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT THE
CINCINNATI TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
CHANCE REMAINS TOO LIMITED TO PUT SPECIFICALLY IN THE
FORECAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EITHER WAY. WHILE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR CINCINNATI...WESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10
KNOTS WILL SET UP FOR COLUMBUS AND DAYTON.
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER GOING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO INCREASE AT
THE FAR END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
412 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINAS TODAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES
ACROSS OUR REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS FRONT MOVING FARTHER NORTH INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLE THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE CWFA AS WELL.
FOR TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT FROM THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES
ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP INDUCE SOME WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION (800 MB-600 MB) ACROSS THE SRN CWFA. THE RESULT WILL
BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS MOSTLY KEEP THE SHOWER THREAT IN THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATER HRRR RUNS TRY TO CREEP IT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S WHERE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF PCPN
IS EXPECTED...TO THE UPPER 60S WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THIN AND
SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. WE
SHOULD SEE A RESPITE IN THE THREAT FOR PCPN.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL CAUSE CLOUDS
AND SOME PCPN TO DEVELOP...SLOWLY SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER SO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARE ONLY WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
ON MONDAY...A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODELS...THE NAM...AND
THE ECMWF WERE USED FOR THE FORECAST. THE GFS LOOKED OVERDONE IN
TERMS OF HEAVIER QPF ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES. STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY CREEP INTO OUR SRN CWFA DURING THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTHWARD INTO NRN INDIANA AND NRN OHIO. THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT HAVE
DECIDED TO STAY AT HIGH CHANCE AT THIS TIME. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOW...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ONLY SHOWERS.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
A LITTLE MORE INTO OUR AREA BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME QUASI
STATIONARY AT SOME POINT. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASE IN PCPN CHANCES ALONG WITH AN ADDED THREAT FOR
THUNDER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGER OF
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COVERAGE WANING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. MEANWHILE...OUR LINGERING BOUNDARY MAY
FINALLY PUSH AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE OR CONSENSUS GUIDANCE (MOS AND
RAW MODEL TEMPERATURE OUTPUT) THROUGH THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S. A COLD
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...LEADING TO A DRYING TREND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE CINCINNATI TAF
SITES...AND A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ASIDE FROM A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS
NEAR COLUMBUS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT BEFORE MORNING.
ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT THE
CINCINNATI TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
CHANCE REMAINS TOO LIMITED TO PUT SPECIFICALLY IN THE
FORECAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EITHER WAY. WHILE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR CINCINNATI...WESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10
KNOTS WILL SET UP FOR COLUMBUS AND DAYTON.
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER GOING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO INCREASE AT
THE FAR END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
926 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER TO FINE-TUNE THE TIMING OF
REMAINING POPS. SO FAR...THIS SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE.
THE REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO END COMPLETELY AROUND 10 TO 11 PM.
THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME VERY DIFFUSE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REFORM
WELL TO THE WEST TOMORROW...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. SOME PATCHES OF GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BUT WILL NOT
LAST LONG IF THEY DO DEVELOP.
AT THIS TIME...NO FURTHER FORECAST CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
AVIATION...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z AROUND
KPNC...BUT ALL OTHER STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN 1/3 OF
OKLAHOMA AFTER 00Z. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS AT MOST SITES WILL DROP
OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TOWARD SUNRISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME DOMINANT...AND WILL INCREASE SLOWLY IN SPEED THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CMS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
ATTENTION IS PRIMARILY ON THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA BY 00Z... THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER
00Z... ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS HIGHER THAN INITIALIZATION OR SYNOPTIC MODELS WOULD GIVE FOR
THIS EVENING. AS DISCUSSED ELSEWHERE... THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE FIRST WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH
HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND IMPROVING WIND FIELDS WITH TIME THAT
WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AND SOME TORNADO RISK. FARTHER
NORTH... AIRMASS WILL HAVE WHAT EVOLVES INTO A MORE INVERTED-V
LOOK TO THE SOUNDING SO WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT TO THE
NORTH. DRYLINE PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN LURKING IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE AREA OR JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT AND
WASHING OUT. BUT THEN TOMORROW IT WILL BE VERY WARM... ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 90S. THEN A
MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
BRING STORM CHANCES AND THEN COOLER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 57 89 66 85 / 10 0 10 30
HOBART OK 57 92 64 86 / 0 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 95 67 88 / 0 0 10 30
GAGE OK 53 90 56 78 / 0 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 57 88 66 84 / 60 0 20 20
DURANT OK 66 90 68 85 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
645 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z AROUND
KPNC...BUT ALL OTHER STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN 1/3 OF
OKLAHOMA AFTER 00Z. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS AT MOST SITES WILL DROP
OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TOWARD SUNRISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME DOMINANT...AND WILL INCREASE SLOWLY IN SPEED THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CMS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
ATTENTION IS PRIMARILY ON THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA BY 00Z... THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER
00Z... ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS HIGHER THAN INITIALIZATION OR SYNOPTIC MODELS WOULD GIVE FOR
THIS EVENING. AS DISCUSSED ELSEWHERE... THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE FIRST WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH
HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND IMPROVING WIND FIELDS WITH TIME THAT
WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AND SOME TORNADO RISK. FARTHER
NORTH... AIRMASS WILL HAVE WHAT EVOLVES INTO A MORE INVERTED-V
LOOK TO THE SOUNDING SO WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT TO THE
NORTH. DRYLINE PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN LURKING IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE AREA OR JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT AND
WASHING OUT. BUT THEN TOMORROW IT WILL BE VERY WARM... ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 90S. THEN A
MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
BRING STORM CHANCES AND THEN COOLER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 89 66 85 / 20 0 10 30
HOBART OK 56 92 64 86 / 10 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 95 67 88 / 10 0 10 30
GAGE OK 52 90 56 78 / 10 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 55 88 66 84 / 40 0 20 20
DURANT OK 65 90 68 85 / 30 10 10 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/03/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1220 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered light showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will
persist through 00z, though prevailing conditions should remain
VFR until late tonight. More widespread low ceilings appear likely
after 09z tonight with scattered thunderstorms likely impacting
eastern OK sites after 12z Monday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Lead shortwave impulse lifting northeast this morning through west
Texas, along east side of primary upper circulation just east of
Four Corners, has resulted in fairly widespread coverage of light
showers with some embedded elevated thunderstorms across central
and eastern OK. As this feature lifts northeast, would expect an
uptick in precip coverage to continue from eastern OK and
eventually into northwest AR by this afternoon. HRRR has been
consistent with this signal for several runs now. Little in the
way of severe weather potential with the elevated storms , though
some small hail possible in stronger cores. Updated forecast will
reflect higher precip chances in the first period.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Strong and gusty south winds will develop today ahead of upper
wave. Could see a few isolated thunderstorms this morning or
early afternoon but overall coverage should be limited. Added a
PROB30 group for eastern OK TAF sites for any thunderstorms
activity moving in from the west late tonight. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Elevated scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Today
with the aid of isentropic lift and an upper level shortwave
moving out of Texas and across the area. This activity should
move into the area early to mid morning and exit late this
afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop
late this afternoon across far western Oklahoma in the vicinity
of the dryline and push off to the northeast. This activity may
move into portions of the area later this evening and overnight.
This activity will also be elevated in nature as it moves into the
region. Some of these storms could become strong to severe with
large hail the main concern.
Elevated showers and thunderstorms will again develop late tonight
and into Monday morning across the area as another upper level
shortwave moves across the area. The greatest risk for severe weather
across eastern Oklahoma and western arkansas will come late Monday
afternoon into Monday night as Thunderstorms Develop along the dryline
across central Oklahoma with the aid of a more significant upper level
shortwave and move into the region. There is expected to be enough
instability and deep layer shear to support severe thunderstorms.
Large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will also be possible with
this activity. The thunderstorm activity is expected to exit the region
late Monday night.
Tuesday is expected to be dry as the area will be between storm systems.
Tuesday will also be the hottest day of the week with high temperatures
expected to be in the 80s area-wide.
The chances of showers and thunderstorms return on Wednesday as an upper
level low moving out of the northern Rockies and across the plains pushes
a cold front through the region. After a dry day on Thursday, showers and
thunderstorms return to the forecast Friday into Saturday as another cold
front affects the region.
TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
$$
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1028 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Lead shortwave impulse lifting northeast this morning through west
Texas, along east side of primary upper circulation just east of
Four Corners, has resulted in fairly widespread coverage of light
showers with some embedded elevated thunderstorms across central
and eastern OK. As this feature lifts northeast, would expect an
uptick in precip coverage to continue from eastern OK and
eventually into northwest AR by this afternoon. HRRR has been
consistent with this signal for several runs now. Little in the
way of severe weather potential with the elevated storms , though
some small hail possible in stronger cores. Updated forecast will
reflect higher precip chances in the first period.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Strong and gusty south winds will develop today ahead of upper
wave. Could see a few isolated thunderstorms this morning or
early afternoon but overall coverage should be limited. Added a
PROB30 group for eastern OK TAF sites for any thunderstorms
activity moving in from the west late tonight. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Elevated scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Today
with the aid of isentropic lift and an upper level shortwave
moving out of Texas and across the area. This activity should
move into the area early to mid morning and exit late this
afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop
late this afternoon across far western Oklahoma in the vicinity
of the dryline and push off to the northeast. This activity may
move into portions of the area later this evening and overnight.
This activity will also be elevated in nature as it moves into the
region. Some of these storms could become strong to severe with
large hail the main concern.
Elevated showers and thunderstorms will again develop late tonight
and into Monday morning across the area as another upper level
shortwave moves across the area. The greatest risk for severe weather
across eastern Oklahoma and western arkansas will come late Monday
afternoon into Monday night as Thunderstorms Develop along the dryline
across central Oklahoma with the aid of a more significant upper level
shortwave and move into the region. There is expected to be enough
instability and deep layer shear to support severe thunderstorms.
Large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will also be possible with
this activity. The thunderstorm activity is expected to exit the region
late Monday night.
Tuesday is expected to be dry as the area will be between storm systems.
Tuesday will also be the hottest day of the week with high temperatures
expected to be in the 80s area-wide.
The chances of showers and thunderstorms return on Wednesday as an upper
level low moving out of the northern Rockies and across the plains pushes
a cold front through the region. After a dry day on Thursday, showers and
thunderstorms return to the forecast Friday into Saturday as another cold
front affects the region.
TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 80 65 78 63 / 60 40 60 60
FSM 81 63 79 66 / 60 40 80 60
MLC 78 66 80 67 / 60 40 70 60
BVO 78 65 79 60 / 60 40 60 60
FYV 76 62 72 62 / 60 40 80 60
BYV 78 60 72 62 / 60 40 80 60
MKO 79 62 77 64 / 60 40 70 60
MIO 79 63 76 64 / 60 40 80 60
F10 78 64 79 65 / 60 40 60 60
HHW 78 64 80 67 / 60 40 70 60
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
749 PM PDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW OVER IDAHO WITH COOL UNSTABLE NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO NORTHEAST OREGON. FOR THE MOST PART THESE
WILL DIMINISH SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE BLUES WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE
CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION
TUESDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START BUILDING IN. EXPECT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE BLUES WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE RIDGE
WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WED AND THU. 94
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM PDT MON MAY 9 2016/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN ALONG THE IDAHO/MONTANA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS
SENDING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE LOW HAS GENERATED RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SHORT TERN HRRR MODEL SHOWS THIS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDOWN
BEFORE WINDING DOWN. MAY SEE A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS, THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND WALLOWA COUNTY
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SO HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
THROUGH THIS EVENING THOUGH THEY ARE SLOWLY DECLINING. TOMORROW THE
LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO EASTERN MONTANA BUT THE THERE WILL STILL
BE MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW INTO THE AREA AS A BROAD
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND WALLOWA COUNTY WHILE THE REST OF THE ARE WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH MAINLY
60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AN OFFSHORE RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND FAIR AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND
END UP IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY
THURSDAY. PERRY
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BETWEEN 130-140W. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LOW WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY FOR INCREASES
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF 12Z RUNS INDICATE DIFFERENCES
IN TERMS OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE BEST DYNAMIC LIFT ON THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE LOW, SO I WAS CONSERVATIVE IN THE POPS FOR SATURDAY
BY INDICATING CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY THE MID/UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
BETTER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
STARTING OUT AROUND 7500-8500 AND THEN LOWERING A TAD TO 7500-8000
FEET AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND MIDDAY ON SUNDAY WITH POPS ON THE DOWNWARD TREND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AS WELL AS IN THE
KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY THE REGION A MINOR MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FOR DRY CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. POLAN
AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT MAINLY BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OF 7000-
10000 FT AGL AT KPDT, KALW AND KPSC INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE SPINNING AROUND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF KPDT AND KALW UNTIL 03Z-04Z/10TH. KPDT
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS IN MORROW, UMATILLA, WALLA WALLA AND COLUMBIA
COUNTIES, FROM LEXINGTON AND HEPPNER TO DAYTON MOVING TOWARD THE SE-
S. OTHERWISE, DRIER AIR AT OTHER TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND ONLY FEW-SCT LOW OR MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-18 KTS INTO
THIS EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME DRAINAGE WINDS
OF 5-10 KTS. POLAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 44 70 44 77 / 20 10 0 0
ALW 47 70 47 77 / 20 10 0 0
PSC 46 75 46 82 / 20 0 0 0
YKM 44 77 46 83 / 20 0 0 0
HRI 45 74 44 80 / 20 0 0 0
ELN 43 74 42 79 / 20 0 0 0
RDM 33 69 35 78 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 38 63 37 72 / 20 20 10 0
GCD 38 65 37 74 / 10 20 0 0
DLS 47 78 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
94
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS PENDLETON OR
500 PM PDT MON MAY 9 2016
CORRECTED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN ALONG THE IDAHO/MONTANA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS
SENDING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE LOW HAS GENERATED RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SHORT TERN HRRR MODEL SHOWS THIS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDOWN
BEFORE WINDING DOWN. MAY SEE A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS, THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND WALLOWA COUNTY
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SO HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
THROUGH THIS EVENING THOUGH THEY ARE SLOWLY DECLINING. TOMORROW THE
LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO EASTERN MONTANA BUT THE THERE WILL STILL
BE MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW INTO THE AREA AS A BROAD
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND WALLOWA COUNTY WHILE THE REST OF THE ARE WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH MAINLY
60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AN OFFSHORE RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND FAIR AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND
END UP IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY
THURSDAY. PERRY
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BETWEEN 130-140W. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LOW WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY FOR INCREASES
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF 12Z RUNS INDICATE DIFFERENCES
IN TERMS OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE BEST DYNAMIC LIFT ON THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE LOW, SO I WAS CONSERVATIVE IN THE POPS FOR SATURDAY
BY INDICATING CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY THE MID/UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
BETTER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
STARTING OUT AROUND 7500-8500 AND THEN LOWERING A TAD TO 7500-8000
FEET AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND MIDDAY ON SUNDAY WITH POPS ON THE DOWNWARD TREND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AS WELL AS IN THE
KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY THE REGION A MINOR MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FOR DRY CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. POLAN
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT MAINLY BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OF 7000-
10000 FT AGL AT KPDT, KALW AND KPSC INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE SPINNING AROUND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF KPDT AND KALW UNTIL 03Z-04Z/10TH. KPDT
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS IN MORROW, UMATILLA, WALLA WALLA AND COLUMBIA
COUNTIES, FROM LEXINGTON AND HEPPNER TO DAYTON MOVING TOWARD THE SE-
S. OTHERWISE, DRIER AIR AT OTHER TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND ONLY FEW-SCT LOW OR MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-18 KTS INTO
THIS EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME DRAINAGE WINDS
OF 5-10 KTS. POLAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 44 70 44 77 / 20 0 0 0
ALW 47 70 47 77 / 20 10 0 0
PSC 46 75 46 82 / 20 0 0 0
YKM 44 77 46 83 / 20 0 0 0
HRI 45 74 44 80 / 20 0 0 0
ELN 43 74 42 79 / 20 0 0 0
RDM 33 69 35 78 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 38 63 37 72 / 20 10 10 0
GCD 38 65 37 74 / 10 10 0 0
DLS 47 78 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
83/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PENDLETON OR
50 PM PDT MON MAY 9 2016
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN ALONG THE IDAHO/MONTANA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS
SENDING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE LOW HAS GENERATED RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SHORT TERN HRRR MODEL SHOWS THIS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDOWN
BEFORE WINDING DOWN. MAY SEE A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS, THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND WALLOWA COUNTY
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SO HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
THROUGH THIS EVENING THOUGH THEY ARE SLOWLY DECLINING. TOMORROW THE
LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO EASTERN MONTANA BUT THE THERE WILL STILL
BE MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW INTO THE AREA AS A BROAD
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND WALLOWA COUNTY WHILE THE REST OF THE ARE WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH MAINLY
60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AN OFFSHORE RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND FAIR AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND
END UP IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY
THURSDAY. PERRY
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BETWEEN 130-140W. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LOW WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY FOR INCREASES
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF 12Z RUNS INDICATE DIFFERENCES
IN TERMS OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE BEST DYNAMIC LIFT ON THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE LOW, SO I WAS CONSERVATIVE IN THE POPS FOR SATURDAY
BY INDICATING CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY THE MID/UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
BETTER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
STARTING OUT AROUND 7500-8500 AND THEN LOWERING A TAD TO 7500-8000
FEET AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND MIDDAY ON SUNDAY WITH POPS ON THE DOWNWARD TREND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AS WELL AS IN THE
KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY THE REGION A MINOR MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FOR DRY CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. POLAN
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT MAINLY BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OF 7000-
10000 FT AGL AT KPDT, KALW AND KPSC INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE SPINNING AROUND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF KPDT AND KALW UNTIL 03Z-04Z/10TH. KPDT
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS IN MORROW, UMATILLA, WALLA WALLA AND COLUMBIA
COUNTIES, FROM LEXINGTON AND HEPPNER TO DAYTON MOVING TOWARD THE SE-
S. OTHERWISE, DRIER AIR AT OTHER TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND ONLY FEW-SCT LOW OR MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID TO LATE TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 12-16 KTS
AND THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME DRAINAGE WINDS O5 5- 1O KTS.
POLAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 44 70 44 77 / 20 0 0 0
ALW 47 70 47 77 / 20 10 0 0
PSC 46 75 46 82 / 20 0 0 0
YKM 44 77 46 83 / 20 0 0 0
HRI 45 74 44 80 / 20 0 0 0
ELN 43 74 42 79 / 20 0 0 0
RDM 33 69 35 78 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 38 63 37 72 / 20 10 10 0
GCD 38 65 37 74 / 10 10 0 0
DLS 47 78 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
83/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1249 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MILDER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS TRANSITORY AND SMALL IN AREAL COVERAGE. WILL KEEP THE POPS
IN THE LOW CHC RANGE AS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER KBFD-KPIT
MOVES THRU. DEWPOINTS VERY LOW AND CONVERGENCE MINIMAL-NAUGHT.
THUNDER CHC IS NOW SO SMALL THAT NO MORE NEED FOR IT. TIMING OF
ENDING AT OR JUST BEFORE 12Z IN THE EAST LOOKING FINE.
PREV...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT ENTERS MY NWRN ZONES. THERE ARE EVEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES FROM JUST NORTH
OF PITTSBURGH DOWN INTO SERN OHIO. THESE MAY JUST CLIP MY SWRN
ZONES SO THERE IS A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WELL BEFORE
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND AN INCREASING NW
BREEZE IN THE 08-12Z PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
STRONG DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND GENERALLY WEAK SFC-850 MB COLD
ADVECTION WILL BRING DRIER AIR BUT QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY.
SOME INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH UNDER THE LOWER
HEIGHTS AND BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG 130-140 KT
300 MB JET MAX.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CREATE
MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES. WILL HOLD ONTO THE 20-30 POPS IN THE
NORTHERN TIER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH NIL POPS FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE WILL BE AN APPROX 10 MB PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE IN
THE MORNING AND THEN MIXING UP TO 5-6KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
MIXING WILL TAP HIGHER WINDS AT CLOUD LEVEL AND SHOULD LEAD TO
GUSTS INTO THE 20S OR EVEN NEAR 30MPH ON THE HIGHER RIDGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW PWAT AIR SLIDES OVER THE STATE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR TOO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY LOW
TEMPS EARLY MONDAY - IN THE 30S AND 40S. PATCHY LIGHT FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS 05-12Z MONDAY.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP TO FORM/ADVECT A WARM
FRONT NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY EVENING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN MTNS OF THE STATE...AND WILL PERSIST
AT ABOUT THE SAME AREAL COVERAGE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CHC FOR
SHOWERS (AND SCATTERED TSRA) INCREASES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS SWRLY LLJ TRANSPORTS BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.
CHC FOR PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA WILL PEAK
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BEFORE THE SFC FRONT BEGINS TO OCCLUDE
AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL.
LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND...NRN STREAM ENERGY WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME JETLETS TO ITS SOUTH WILL BRING LOW CHCS FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA. TEMPS WILL START OUT
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM AIR INTO AND JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO NW PA AT 0330Z. SCT -SHRA IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WILL WORK INTO CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND NOT CAUSE ANY VIS RESTRICTIONS.
MAIN CONCERN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW CIGS AT KBFD/KJST JUST BEHIND FRONT...WHERE LOW LVL
MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH AND NW FLOW ASCENDS THE MTNS.
LATEST SREF AND HRRR HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY...ROUGHLY BTWN
06Z-10Z AT KBFD AND BTWN 07Z-11Z AT KJST. FURTHER EAST...THE CHC
OF IFR CIGS APPEARS VERY LOW...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE ASSOC WITH FROPA DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS.
GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY...AS STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS MIXING THE SFC IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. MDL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WINDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-14Z WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO NR 25KTS THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED-THU...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY WESTERN PA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
MECHANICAL PROBLEM WITH KCCX FORCED IT INTO STANDBY MODE EARLY
THIS MORNING. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED. RETURN TO SERVICE WILL
DEPEND ON WHEN THE PARTS ARRIVE EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
500 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED OVER NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL THEN DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM...SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE FRENCH
BROAD VALLEY...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN NC FOOTHILLS...AND INTO THE
SOUTHWEST NC PIEDMONT. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF CONGESTUS IN THIS
AREA...AND WE/VE SEEN A COUPLE OF SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS DEVELOP
RECENTLY. PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...MUCH OF THIS CU IS NEAR OR
ABOVE THE LFC (AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RAP SOUNDING FROM
THE KCLT AREA)...SO IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO REORIENT POPS TO FEATURE LOW
CHANCES IN THESE AREAS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE EASTERN SC PIEDMONT.
BASED UPON THE LACK OF AN APPRECIABLE CU FIELD...IT APPEARS CHANCES
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE SLIGHT AT BEST. PER
THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS...SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND 500
J/KG ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES...TO AROUND 1000 ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE CWA. WHILE THIS IS NOTHING OUTSTANDING...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
AROUND 40 KTS COULD ALLOW SOME STORMS TO ROTATE...POSSIBLY ENHANCING
UPDRAFT INTENSITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ONE OR TWO MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL REPORTS.
UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ALLOWING RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE STALLED BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE. 925MB FIELDS FROM NAM/GFS BOTH
INDICATE SOME UPGLIDE MAY DEVELOP OVER NC /MAINLY NORTH OF I-40/
IN THE WEE HRS OF THE MORNING AS THE TRANSITION OCCURS. THAT
POTENTIALLY COULD GENERATE SOME LOW STRATUS WHICH COULD LINGER
THRU THE MRNG AND IMPACT HIGH TEMPS...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES
LITTLE TO NOTHING THEREOF. REGARDLESS OF WHAT MAY HAPPEN IN THE
LOW LEVELS...ALTOCU/CIRRUS INCREASE IN THE MRNG AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE. I/M LEANING IN FAVOR OF BLENDED
MOS MIN TEMPS.
WHILE UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ROBUST
MONDAY...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOST IF NOT ALL
CONVECTION. GUIDANCE MEMBERS THAT DO DEVELOP QPF DO SO ONLY OVER
THE NRN MTNS...AND SEEING THE SURPRISINGLY GOOD CONSENSUS I DID
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS THERE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO SUNDAY/S VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AS WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT. S TO SW LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND POCKETS
OF RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL FLOW OVER THE AREA AS WELL.
ALL THIS WILL LEAD TO SLOWLY INCREASING INSTABILITY AND FORCING EACH
DAY. THAT SAID...BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE..HAVE FOLLOWED THESE TRENDS FOR THE POP FORECAST.
INSTABILITY INCREASES TO MODERATE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
ON THAT DAY...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY ORGANIZATION WILL DEVELOP.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHILE
LOWS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...AN EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET
UP DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...RESULTING IN A COOLING TREND
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A REINFORCING STRONGER FRONT ON SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE IS NOT REALLY IMPRESSED WITH CAPE OR SHEAR WITH EITHER
FRONT. ALTHO...THERE SHOULD BE ENUF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR DECENT
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THURSDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IF
WE CAN MANAGE TO GET 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE COMBINED WITH SOME UPPER
SUPPORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE STORMS
THURSDAY. THE SECOND FRONT WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE...BUT STILL HAVE
A CHC POP FOR MAINLY THE NC MTNS ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL START OUT
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN TREND COOLER GRADUALLY
TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A BROAD FRONTAL ZONE IS MORE OR LESS
STALLED NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. FEW-SCT STRATOCU WILL BE SEEN
OVER THE NC SITES AS MOISTURE POOLS IN ITS VICINITY. A COUPLE OF
SHRA OR TSRA MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NEAR KHKY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. WIND GUSTS OF 40 KT OR MORE COULD RESULT NEAR ANY TSRA
HOWEVER. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY OVER THE AREA...WITH
SOME VARIATION ACROSS DUE W. NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL CLOSER TO THE
FRONT. THE FRONT MAY SAG SLIGHTLY FURTHER S TONIGHT AND THAT MAY
VEER WINDS TOWARD N OVER THE NC SITES BY EARLY MORNING...BUT MORE
LIKELY WINDS WILL BE CALM BY THAT TIME. AFTER DAYBREAK...THE FRONT
RETREATS NORTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS...AND
WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SW.
OUTLOOK...THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING. WARMING CONDITIONS AND RETURN SW FLOW ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDWEEK...A TYPICAL SPRINGTIME PATTERN. A FEW SHRA/TSRA
ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JDL/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1236 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
REMOVED POPS THIS MORNING AS ALL PRECIP IN THE CWA HAS DISSIPATED.
ADJUSTED AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS AS WELL BASED ON LATEST CONSSHORT
WHICH SLOWS DOWN NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM FAR E SD THROUGH N IA WILL QUICKLY
EXIT TO S IN THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND INCREASED DEW POINTS WILL BE...LIMITING FIRE CONCERNS.
ALSO FIRE WISE...SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE A MINOR NUISANCE...WITH VIS
EVEN AT RAP FALLING AS A RESULT. CONTINUED MENTION OF PATCHY SMOKE
IN THE FCST FOR ALL BUT THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA TODAY.
HIGHEST TEMPS THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S W TO THE LOW 70S E. MID 60S WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE LOWEST RH WILL AGAIN BE OVER NE SD AND W CENTRAL
MN...WITH MIN RH AGAIN AROUND 20 PERCENT. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY 10-
15MPH OR LESS. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN AS WE MOVE
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LINGERING SMOKE SHOULD EXIT NE THIS
EVENING AS PRECIP NEARS FROM THE SW.
WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL WAIT UNTIL MONDAY-
MONDAY NIGHT...WILL STILL HAVE SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THE SW CORNER
OF THE CWA FOR THE MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. TS POTENTIAL LOOKS
VERY LIMITED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
INCREASED RAINFALL SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
QPF 0.5-0.75IN OVER THE S TIER OF COUNTIES. ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF
THINGS...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS WILL FALL NE OF MBG. THIS WILL BE
WHILE THE SFC LOW OVER W KS MOVES OVER CENTRAL KS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH A PORTION OF THE LOW LIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL SD DURING
THE DAY...AND THE 500MB LOW OVER UT/CO/S WY MOVES OVERHEAD. SIMILAR
THINKING FOR MONDAY WITH MAINLY JUST EMBEDDED TS POTENTIAL. SE WINDS
AROUND 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE E HALF.
A REINFORCING 500MB LOW ACROSS W MT AT 00Z TUESDAY WILL CROSS E MT
AND INTO THE W DAKOTAS BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT PRECIP
WILL REMAIN INTO TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN 24 HOURS FOR THE EXTENDED.
THE HIGHLIGHTS IN THE OUT PERIODS CONTINUE TO INCLUDE HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES RUNNING GENERALLY ABOUT A CATEGORY TO PERHAPS TWO
CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STILL SHOWING UP EARLIER IN THE PERIOD /TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/ BEFORE A DRIER-WEATHER-PRODUCING-UPPER-
LEVEL-FLOW-PATTERN SETS UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE
WEEKEND. 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS 925HPA THERMAL PROGS DIP
BELOW 0C FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST OUT OF THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ON STRONG WINDS MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK
SUGGESTS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE SEEING SOME
HIGHER END WIND ADVISORY /30 TO 40MPH/ TO PERHAPS LOWER END HIGH
WIND WARNING /35 TO 45MPH/ TYPE SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY BE RUNNING
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH BY THE END OF THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT...-SHRA/SHRA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION AND BEGIN AFFECTING TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. CIGS WILL LOWER INTO MVFR AND IFR AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE KPIR REGION INITIALLY LATE TONIGHT...THEN LOWER CIGS
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TMT/WISE
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TMT
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM FAR E SD THROUGH N IA WILL QUICKLY
EXIT TO S IN THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND INCREASED DEW POINTS WILL BE...LIMITING FIRE CONCERNS.
ALSO FIRE WISE...SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE A MINOR NUISANCE...WITH VIS
EVEN AT RAP FALLING AS A RESULT. CONTINUED MENTION OF PATCHY SMOKE
IN THE FCST FOR ALL BUT THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA TODAY.
HIGHEST TEMPS THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S W TO THE LOW 70S E. MID 60S WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE LOWEST RH WILL AGAIN BE OVER NE SD AND W CENTRAL
MN...WITH MIN RH AGAIN AROUND 20 PERCENT. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY 10-
15MPH OR LESS. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN AS WE MOVE
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LINGERING SMOKE SHOULD EXIT NE THIS
EVENING AS PRECIP NEARS FROM THE SW.
WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL WAIT UNTIL MONDAY-
MONDAY NIGHT...WILL STILL HAVE SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THE SW CORNER
OF THE CWA FOR THE MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. TS POTENTIAL LOOKS
VERY LIMITED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
INCREASED RAINFALL SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
QPF 0.5-0.75IN OVER THE S TIER OF COUNTIES. ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF
THINGS...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS WILL FALL NE OF MBG. THIS WILL BE
WHILE THE SFC LOW OVER W KS MOVES OVER CENTRAL KS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH A PORTION OF THE LOW LIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL SD DURING
THE DAY...AND THE 500MB LOW OVER UT/CO/S WY MOVES OVERHEAD. SIMILAR
THINKING FOR MONDAY WITH MAINLY JUST EMBEDDED TS POTENTIAL. SE WINDS
AROUND 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE E HALF.
A REINFORCING 500MB LOW ACROSS W MT AT 00Z TUESDAY WILL CROSS E MT
AND INTO THE W DAKOTAS BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT PRECIP
WILL REMAIN INTO TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN 24 HOURS FOR THE EXTENDED.
THE HIGHLIGHTS IN THE OUT PERIODS CONTINUE TO INCLUDE HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES RUNNING GENERALLY ABOUT A CATEGORY TO PERHAPS TWO
CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STILL SHOWING UP EARLIER IN THE PERIOD /TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/ BEFORE A DRIER-WEATHER-PRODUCING-UPPER-
LEVEL-FLOW-PATTERN SETS UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE
WEEKEND. 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS 925HPA THERMAL PROGS DIP
BELOW 0C FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST OUT OF THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ON STRONG WINDS MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK
SUGGESTS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE SEEING SOME
HIGHER END WIND ADVISORY /30 TO 40MPH/ TO PERHAPS LOWER END HIGH
WIND WARNING /35 TO 45MPH/ TYPE SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY BE RUNNING
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH BY THE END OF THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING ALONG WITH SOME SMOKE MOVING OVER THE REGION. LOW AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS EVEN A WEAK
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE KPIR TERMINAL
TODAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SET UP
LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
346 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM FAR E SD THROUGH N IA WILL QUICKLY
EXIT TO S IN THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND INCREASED DEW POINTS WILL BE...LIMITING FIRE CONCERNS.
ALSO FIRE WISE...SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE A MINOR NUISANCE...WITH VIS
EVEN AT RAP FALLING AS A RESULT. CONTINUED MENTION OF PATCHY SMOKE
IN THE FCST FOR ALL BUT THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA TODAY.
HIGHEST TEMPS THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S W TO THE LOW 70S E. MID 60S WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE LOWEST RH WILL AGAIN BE OVER NE SD AND W CENTRAL
MN...WITH MIN RH AGAIN AROUND 20 PERCENT. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY 10-
15MPH OR LESS. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN AS WE MOVE
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LINGERING SMOKE SHOULD EXIT NE THIS
EVENING AS PRECIP NEARS FROM THE SW.
WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL WAIT UNTIL MONDAY-
MONDAY NIGHT...WILL STILL HAVE SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THE SW CORNER
OF THE CWA FOR THE MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. TS POTENTIAL LOOKS
VERY LIMITED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
INCREASED RAINFALL SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
QPF 0.5-0.75IN OVER THE S TIER OF COUNTIES. ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF
THINGS...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS WILL FALL NE OF MBG. THIS WILL BE
WHILE THE SFC LOW OVER W KS MOVES OVER CENTRAL KS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH A PORTION OF THE LOW LIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL SD DURING
THE DAY...AND THE 500MB LOW OVER UT/CO/S WY MOVES OVERHEAD. SIMILAR
THINKING FOR MONDAY WITH MAINLY JUST EMBEDDED TS POTENTIAL. SE WINDS
AROUND 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE E HALF.
A REINFORCING 500MB LOW ACROSS W MT AT 00Z TUESDAY WILL CROSS E MT
AND INTO THE W DAKOTAS BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT PRECIP
WILL REMAIN INTO TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN 24 HOURS FOR THE EXTENDED.
THE HIGHLIGHTS IN THE OUT PERIODS CONTINUE TO INCLUDE HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES RUNNING GENERALLY ABOUT A CATEGORY TO PERHAPS TWO
CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STILL SHOWING UP EARLIER IN THE PERIOD /TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/ BEFORE A DRIER-WEATHER-PRODUCING-UPPER-
LEVEL-FLOW-PATTERN SETS UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE
WEEKEND. 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS 925HPA THERMAL PROGS DIP
BELOW 0C FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST OUT OF THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ON STRONG WINDS MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK
SUGGESTS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE SEEING SOME
HIGHER END WIND ADVISORY /30 TO 40MPH/ TO PERHAPS LOWER END HIGH
WIND WARNING /35 TO 45MPH/ TYPE SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY BE RUNNING
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH BY THE END OF THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SOME
CIRRUS ALONG WITH SOME SMOKE MOVING OVER THE REGION. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE PIR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY MOVE UP CLOSE TO THE PIR AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1051 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD REASONING.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROF
OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE NRN TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FCST CYCLE. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING.
ANDRADE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER
THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANDRADE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. TIME TRACK
TOOL SHOWS ITS CENTER SHOULD EXIT OUR AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES IN ITS WAKE THIS EVENING PER SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. UNTIL THEN ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTH. LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINAL BUOYANCY
WITH AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF MLCAPE. A DRY WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIMITING MORE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY BUT THIS
RAISES CONCERN FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. MOMENTUM THROUGH THE MIXED
LAYER IS PRETTY MARGINAL AND SHOULD PRECLUDE STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING WITH LOSS OF MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND ONSET OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE.
BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TOMORROW SHOULD LEAD TO WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY
AND PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR MANY
LOCATIONS....INCLUDING AMARILLO WHICH HAS NOT YET REACHED 90 THIS
YEAR. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH 60-70 KNOT 500
MB SPEED MAX OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOMORROW. THIS WILL
FORCE LEE LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. BY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST A COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE SOUTH BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
NORTHEASTERLY VEERING TO EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
BE FAIRLY MOIST RELATIVE TO THE DEEPLY MIXED PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS
THE DAY PRIOR. THE COOL/MOIST LAYER SHOULD BE CAPPED BY WARM MID
LEVELS UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT WHEN COOLING/ASCENT FROM
APPROACHING TROUGH ARRIVES. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN ASCENT MOVES EAST AND MEAN
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. WE WILL REMAIN IN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-
UPPER FLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHES. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW MAY NOT
BE WELL RESOLVED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES GIVEN PRESENCE OF A MOIST
AND AT LEAST MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS THIS TIME PERIOD
APPROACHES WE WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE BETTER SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL
DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
BRB
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO NEARLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO 15 TO
20 MPH AND MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER.
GREENUP MAY LIMIT THE CONCERN HOWEVER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHER RH VALUES
LIMITING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MID TO LATE WEEK.
BRB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 51 90 50 81 51 / 0 0 0 5 30
BEAVER OK 50 91 53 75 50 / 10 0 5 5 30
BOISE CITY OK 46 84 46 67 45 / 0 0 10 20 30
BORGER TX 53 91 53 79 53 / 0 0 0 5 30
BOYS RANCH TX 50 90 51 81 51 / 0 0 0 10 30
CANYON TX 50 91 50 83 50 / 0 0 0 10 20
CLARENDON TX 54 91 54 83 53 / 0 0 0 5 30
DALHART TX 47 87 49 72 48 / 0 0 5 20 30
GUYMON OK 49 88 49 73 49 / 5 0 5 10 30
HEREFORD TX 50 91 49 85 51 / 0 0 0 10 20
LIPSCOMB TX 50 91 54 78 51 / 5 0 5 5 30
PAMPA TX 53 90 51 78 51 / 0 0 5 5 30
SHAMROCK TX 55 91 56 84 53 / 0 0 0 5 30
WELLINGTON TX 56 93 59 87 55 / 0 0 0 5 30
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
249 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
AFTERNOON WINDS STAY BREEZY TO WINDY THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
SLACKEN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS DRY FOR ALL LOCATIONS UNTIL
LATE THURSDAY WHEN GULF MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE EAST TO BRING
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THOSE RAIN
AND STORMS CHANCES REPEAT FRIDAY AND NUDGE A BIT WEST TO INCLUDE
AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE MOISTURE SWEEPS OUT TO
THE EAST SATURDAY AS THE STRONG WEST WINDS RETURN. FOR THE WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SHARPLY WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR
EACH DAY AFTER MID WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WATCHING SAT AND RADAR THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...AS THE LAST LOBE OF ENERGY AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOC
WITH THE CURRENT PASSING LARGE PAC LOW SWINGS NE OUT OF E AZ AND
ACROSS W NM. MODELS ALL SUGGEST SLIGHT INSTABILITY WITH 0 TO -1
LI`S AND VERY MINOR CAPES FOR THE NW AND W CENTRAL ZONES FROM 00Z
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. THUS WE KEEP LOW POPS IN THE N AND W ZONES FOR
THE FIRST PERIOD. THE ATMOSPHERE IS GOING TO HAVE TO BE VERY
OPPORTUNISTIC TO REALIZE ANY SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING
AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE DRY WITH ONLY ABOUT .35" PW...AND
WARM ALOFT. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS REALLY LIMIT THE
INSTABILITY...EVEN WITH THE DYNAMICS THAT FAVORS LIFT AND
TRIGGERS. RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS. THIS ALSO
INCREASES RISK FOR DRY LIGHTING...STRONG OUTFLOWS...BLDU. THE
BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM TONIGHT WILL BE DAMAGING OUTFLOW
WINDS WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVER 40 DEGREES.
AFTER MIDNIGHT THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE RETRACTED/EJECTED FAR ENOUGH
NORTH AND EAST TO END THE THREAT OF ANY STORMS OR SHOWERS. THIS
WILL BEGIN A PERIOD WHICH WILL EXTEND THROUGH MID-DAY THURSDAY OF
DRY WESTERLIES ACROSS THE CWFA. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FOR BOTH
MON AND TUE BUT MUCH LIGHTER THAN WINDY DAYS PAST. WITH THE LARGE
PAC LOW PULLING AWAY AND THE PATTERN FLATTENING OUT HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
WARMING. EACH DAY FROM MON INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE TEMPERATURE
SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. LOWLANDS
WILL SEE A STRETCH OF 90 MAX TEMPS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. WITH
DEEP DRY FLOW SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR...AND NO POPS/PCPN
EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER-LEVEL PAC TROUGH PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO FORM AND DROP SOUTH. THIS FEATURE BACKS SW INTO THE
REGION AND TURNS OUR WINDS E. WE WILL SEE AN INFLUX OF GULF
MOISTURE WORK INTO THE ZONES EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE FOR THU
AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RISE FROM THE TEENS INTO THE 40S.
AND KELP PROG PW`S JUMP FROM .25" TO .75". THIS MOISTURE WILL
PROVIDE FOR A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE ZONES EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE THU AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FRI. WITH
RIDGING ALOFT THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY TRIGGERS OR UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...SO STORM INITIATION WILL BE FROM SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...OROGRAPHIC LIFT...AND DAYTIME HEATING. THUS AFTN AND
EVE SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS IN THE 10-30% RANGES.
SATURDAY THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT TRANSLATES EAST OF THE REGION AND WE
COME BACK UNDER STRONGER W/SW WINDS. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL
BULLDOZE THE MOISTURE BACK EAST OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL END PCPN THREATS AND RETURN THE REGION TO DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS.
14-BIRD
&&
.AVIATION...09/00Z-10/00Z.
P6SM FEW100-120 SCT150-200 THRU 12Z THEN SKC-FEW200. W TO SW WINDS
OF 15-20G30KTS WILL DECREASE BY 04Z TO AOB 12KTS EXCEPT AROUND KELP
WHERE WINDS WILL SLOW DOWN AFT 08Z. BETWEEN 15Z-18Z W TO SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND 20G30KTS.
26-GRZYWACZ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EXITING REGION BUT ANOTHER WILL PASS FURTHER TO
THE NORTH OVER THE COMING DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THRU TUE. SOME BORDERLINE CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED
OVER THE LOWLANDS EAST OF THE RIVER ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THIS WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
LOWLANDS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
26-GRZYWACZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 56 83 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 52 81 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 49 80 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 49 82 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 36 59 41 64 / 10 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 46 81 50 85 / 20 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 41 73 44 77 / 20 0 0 0
DEMING 47 79 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 44 80 47 84 / 10 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 56 82 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 49 82 50 87 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 53 85 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 52 78 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 54 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 52 82 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 53 81 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 45 81 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 46 83 49 87 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 49 82 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 52 81 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 41 69 45 75 / 10 0 0 0
MESCALERO 41 70 44 74 / 20 0 0 0
TIMBERON 39 67 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 38 73 40 77 / 20 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 46 78 49 82 / 20 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 47 82 50 85 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 35 73 38 77 / 20 0 0 0
HURLEY 41 74 44 79 / 20 0 0 0
CLIFF 38 78 41 82 / 20 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 36 75 38 79 / 20 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 43 77 45 80 / 20 0 0 0
ANIMAS 46 80 49 84 / 10 0 0 0
HACHITA 46 81 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 47 80 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 45 77 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
14/26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
334 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)
Dryline storms rapidly developing this afternoon across the
eastern Permian Basin and western Concho Valley. TTU WRF and the
latest HRRR showed this nicely, and indicate that the storms
should continue to increase in coverage through the evening hours,
with perhaps another round developing after 06Z as the cold front
plows into the area. Storms should shift east out of the area
after sunrise Monday as drier air works it way in from the west.
.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Upper level shortwave trough exits to the east and leaves dry
conditions for Monday Night. However, could see a few storms
develop across the far southeast counties on Tuesday and Tuesday
Night as the low level moisture returns just ahead of anotherweak
shortwave. Better coverage of storms possible Wednesday and
Thursday as a cold front moves into the area. Upper level ridge
tries to build into the Southern Rockies for the weekend,
producing northwest flow across the Southern Plains. Combine this
with a dryline from the Panhandle to the Permian Basin and this
sets the stage for more convection possible for next Saturday and
Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 63 86 59 94 / 60 10 0 0
San Angelo 64 89 58 93 / 50 10 0 5
Junction 66 91 61 92 / 40 10 5 20
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
07/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
254 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE TODAY BUT ARE STARTING TO GET WITH
THE PROGRAM AS OF 20Z WITH SEVERAL TTU MESONET LOCATIONS NOW
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. WOULD
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET AS LOWER AND MID LEVEL
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MAKING GOOD
HEADWAY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. STILL THINK WE WILL SEE SOME
GUSTS IN THE 45-50 MPH RANGE AT MANY LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WIND ADVISORY THROUGH
01Z.
WINDS HAVE VEERED AND DEWPOINTS HAVE CRASHED AT MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE CWA...SAVE PERHAPS EXTREME EASTERN AREA. DESPITE
THIS...SUPER RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING A GROWING CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND WE MAY SEE A HIGH BASED STORM OR
TWO FORM FROM CHILDRESS DOWN TO ASPERMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR JUST EAST OF CWA WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE IS MAINTAINED. A DIFFERENT STORY MAY EXIST LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORT WAVE APPROCHES FROM
THE WEST AND HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR...YANKING DRYLINE WEST ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS TO THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. GFS AND HRRR SHOW
CONVECTION INITIATING AND/OR ADVECTING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
THIS EVENING WHILE TTU WRF KEEPS ACTIVITY JUST EAST OF STONEWALL
COUNTY. WHILE CLEAR FROM A SLAM DUNK SCENARIO...IF STORMS DO FIRE
THERE WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...CAPE AND SHEAR TO
RESULT IN SEVERE WIND/HAIL SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WE WILL BE
WATCHING FOR.
SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL BE THE
SAME OLD STORY WITH THE WIND AS LOW TO MID LEVEL GRADIENTS REMAIN
QUITE STOUT. WEST WINDS SHOULD CRANK BACK UP TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...IF NOT SOONER...COMPLETE
WITH PATCHY BLOWING DUST ON THE CAPROCK. JW
.LONG TERM...
GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY IS LEADING TO FEW CHANGES THIS THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA TUESDAY MAY BE
ABLE TO UNLOCK AIR MASS THAT IS PROGGED TO HAVE DEW POINTS NEAR 50
DEGREES. NOTHING SPECIAL THERE...BUT CERTAINLY WORTHY OF
CONTINUING THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE
WEEKEND. GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FCST AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...POSSIBLY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL INTERACTION...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF THAT SCENARIO SOME. SETUP
REMINISCENT OF A MID-SUMMER NORTHWEST FLOW SCENARIO. DEW POINTS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S POSSIBLY WITH A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW
SUGGESTS POPS OF 20-30 PCT STILL JUSTIFIED.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>043.
&&
$$
13/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.AVIATION...
PATCHY -RA WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA
THRU THIS EVENING. OTHER TSRA COULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR EARLY
THIS EVENING. HAVE VCSH AT ALL TAFS SITES THRU 03Z WITH TEMPOS OF
TSRA AT KDRT 21Z-01Z AND AT KSAT/KSSF 23Z-02Z. MIX OF MVFR/VFR
CIGS LIFTS TO MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING. PATCHES OF CIGS LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...HAVE NO
IFR MENTION AT TAF SITES DUE TO STRONGER LOWER LEVEL FLOW. CIGS
ERODE MONDAY TO VFR ALL AREAS BY AROUND MIDDAY. S TO SE WINDS 9 TO
15 KTS PREVAIL...EXCEPT BECOME W TO NW WESTERN AREAS ON MONDAY IN
THE WAKE OF DRYLINE PASSAGE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/
UPDATE...
WE JUST SENT AN UPDATE TO RE-TREND FORECAST VARIABLES THROUGH
00Z/7PM. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35. RECENT HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG TO LOW END
SEVERE STORMS JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA...AND A SECOND LINE OF
STORMS THAT WOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER SHOULD LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL
AREAS. THE HWO WAS UPDATED TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY OF THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE
ISOLATED...SO NO MENTION OUTSIDE OF THE HWO AND HERE.
OTHERWISE...EVERYTHING ELSE IN ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/
AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/
HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO OVERFORECAST THE RAINFALL INTENSITIES OF
THE EARLY MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION...BUT FORECAST PWAT VALUES
CONTINUE TO SOAR FOR LATER TODAY. THUS EXPECT SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION TO BEGIN AROUND MIDDAY AND IMPACT MAINLY THE I-35
TERMINAL SITES IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPO SHOWER
GROUPS AS CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING IS NOT QUITE THERE
YET GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE RAPID REFRESH MODELS. CIGS A
FEW HUNDRED FEET EITHER SIDE OF 2000 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
I-35 TERMINAL SITES WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE VFR SKIES WILL HOLD AT DRT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING. HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING AND A CONTINUED WEAK SIGNAL FOR
MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL HAVE THE LATER PERIODS WITH MORE
PESSIMISTIC SKIES FINISHING OUT THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS IFR
CIGS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AREA RADARS CONTINUE TO PICK UP LIGHT RETURNS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS IN PLACE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TO
OUR NORTHWEST AND THIS IS HELPING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. THE 00Z KDRT RAOB SHOWED
A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WHICH IS PREVENTING MUCH OF THE ELEVATED ACTIVITY FROM REACHING
THE GROUND. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARY AT
850 AND 700 MB WHICH SHOULD HELP FOCUS THE ACTIVITY. THIS FEATURE
CAN BE SEEN IN MODEL QPF FIELDS WITH A BAND OF FORECASTED RAINFALL
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS IS GENERALLY IN THE SAME LOCATION AS
THIS CONVERGENT ZONE. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...THE RAIN
WILL HAVE THE DRY AIRMASS TO OVERCOME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INITIALLY SHOW THE FAIRLY STOUT DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB...BUT BY
00Z THE SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY SATURATED WHICH WOULD THEN SUPPORT
THE RAINFALL REACHING THE SURFACE. WILL FORECAST A 40 POP FOR THE
HILL COUNTRY WHERE THE BEST ZONE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODEST AT BEST AND AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL FORCING IS EXPECTED JUST NORTH OF THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NORTH OF OUR
CWA BUT SOME ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE A BIT BETTER IN THIS REGION
AND THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM. THIS AREA IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
TONIGHT.
ON MONDAY...THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH HAS SPED UP A
BIT. THE EASTWARD PUSH OF THE TROUGH WITH WEST WINDS FROM 500 DOWN
TO 850 MB SHOULD ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO SURGE EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. WITH THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...THE DRYLINE
SHOULD BE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AS IT MIXES EAST
DURING THE DAY. AT 18Z...CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DRYLINE
NEARING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND IT BEING EAST OF THERE BY 00Z. THIS
FEATURE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL
INITIALLY BE POOR DUE TO EXPECTED CAPE VALUES...BUT SOME BREAKS IN
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE. ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE BUT MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR REGARDING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. PW VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES WITH
A 1000-500 MB MEAN RH LESS THAN 40 PERCENT. HIGH-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AND WILL ONLY HAVE
POPS BETWEEN 20-40 PERCENT FOR THE EASTERN CWA. SPC HAS THIS AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH SLIGHT AND ENHANCED
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA WHERE THE BEST UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AND OUTSIDE OF A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY QUIET DAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WILL SHOW 20 POPS
FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHICH COULD HELP WITH THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
ON THURSDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED TO THE
WEST OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS THE GFS STALLS THE BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE ECMWF HAS IT IN OUR CWA. REGARDLESS OF THE
SCENARIO...THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ON FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
RAIN FREE. ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS
ON FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
TO MAINLY OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 68 89 70 93 / 40 30 20 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 80 68 88 70 92 / 40 30 20 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 81 68 89 68 93 / 40 30 20 10 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 79 67 88 68 92 / 40 30 20 - 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 66 94 66 96 / 40 20 - - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 67 87 70 93 / 40 30 20 - 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 83 68 92 67 95 / 40 30 10 0 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 80 68 88 69 91 / 40 30 20 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 80 69 86 72 90 / 20 30 30 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 82 68 90 69 92 / 40 30 20 - 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 83 69 91 69 95 / 40 30 10 10 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1021 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
WE JUST SENT AN UPDATE TO RE-TREND FORECAST VARIABLES THROUGH
00Z/7PM. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35. RECENT HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG TO LOW END
SEVERE STORMS JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA...AND A SECOND LINE OF
STORMS THAT WOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER SHOULD LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL
AREAS. THE HWO WAS UPDATED TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY OF THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE
ISOLATED...SO NO MENTION OUTSIDE OF THE HWO AND HERE.
OTHERWISE...EVERYTHING ELSE IN ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/
AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/
HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO OVERFORECAST THE RAINFALL INTENSITIES OF
THE EARLY MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION...BUT FORECAST PWAT VALUES
CONTINUE TO SOAR FOR LATER TODAY. THUS EXPECT SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION TO BEGIN AROUND MIDDAY AND IMPACT MAINLY THE I-35
TERMINAL SITES IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPO SHOWER
GROUPS AS CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING IS NOT QUITE THERE
YET GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE RAPID REFRESH MODELS. CIGS A
FEW HUNDRED FEET EITHER SIDE OF 2000 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
I-35 TERMINAL SITES WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE VFR SKIES WILL HOLD AT DRT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING. HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING AND A CONTINUED WEAK SIGNAL FOR
MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL HAVE THE LATER PERIODS WITH MORE
PESSIMISTIC SKIES FINISHING OUT THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS IFR
CIGS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AREA RADARS CONTINUE TO PICK UP LIGHT RETURNS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS IN PLACE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TO
OUR NORTHWEST AND THIS IS HELPING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. THE 00Z KDRT RAOB SHOWED
A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WHICH IS PREVENTING MUCH OF THE ELEVATED ACTIVITY FROM REACHING
THE GROUND. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARY AT
850 AND 700 MB WHICH SHOULD HELP FOCUS THE ACTIVITY. THIS FEATURE
CAN BE SEEN IN MODEL QPF FIELDS WITH A BAND OF FORECASTED RAINFALL
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS IS GENERALLY IN THE SAME LOCATION AS
THIS CONVERGENT ZONE. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...THE RAIN
WILL HAVE THE DRY AIRMASS TO OVERCOME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INITIALLY SHOW THE FAIRLY STOUT DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB...BUT BY
00Z THE SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY SATURATED WHICH WOULD THEN SUPPORT
THE RAINFALL REACHING THE SURFACE. WILL FORECAST A 40 POP FOR THE
HILL COUNTRY WHERE THE BEST ZONE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODEST AT BEST AND AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL FORCING IS EXPECTED JUST NORTH OF THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NORTH OF OUR
CWA BUT SOME ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE A BIT BETTER IN THIS REGION
AND THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM. THIS AREA IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
TONIGHT.
ON MONDAY...THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH HAS SPED UP A
BIT. THE EASTWARD PUSH OF THE TROUGH WITH WEST WINDS FROM 500 DOWN
TO 850 MB SHOULD ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO SURGE EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. WITH THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...THE DRYLINE
SHOULD BE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AS IT MIXES EAST
DURING THE DAY. AT 18Z...CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DRYLINE
NEARING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND IT BEING EAST OF THERE BY 00Z. THIS
FEATURE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL
INITIALLY BE POOR DUE TO EXPECTED CAPE VALUES...BUT SOME BREAKS IN
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE. ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE BUT MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR REGARDING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. PW VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES WITH
A 1000-500 MB MEAN RH LESS THAN 40 PERCENT. HIGH-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AND WILL ONLY HAVE
POPS BETWEEN 20-40 PERCENT FOR THE EASTERN CWA. SPC HAS THIS AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH SLIGHT AND ENHANCED
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA WHERE THE BEST UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AND OUTSIDE OF A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY QUIET DAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WILL SHOW 20 POPS
FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHICH COULD HELP WITH THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
ON THURSDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED TO THE
WEST OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS THE GFS STALLS THE BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE ECMWF HAS IT IN OUR CWA. REGARDLESS OF THE
SCENARIO...THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ON FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
RAIN FREE. ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS
ON FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
TO MAINLY OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 82 69 90 70 93 / 40 40 20 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 82 69 89 70 93 / 40 30 20 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 69 90 68 93 / 40 30 20 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 67 88 68 93 / 40 40 20 10 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 85 67 95 66 95 / 40 20 10 - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 81 69 87 71 92 / 40 40 20 10 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 69 92 66 95 / 40 30 20 - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 68 88 68 91 / 40 30 20 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 82 70 87 71 90 / 20 20 40 10 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 84 69 91 69 92 / 40 30 20 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 85 69 92 69 94 / 40 20 20 - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1135 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
THUNDERSTORMS MAINTAINING THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE OFF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO HAVE UPGRADED THE GRIDS TO INCLUDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
THE LATEST HRRR STILL SHOWS SOME PCPN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...AS A DISTURBANCE OVER
NORTHWESTERN CO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD. LTG STILL ONGOING SO
WL KEEP TSTMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE DIVIDE...FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH JUST RAIN SHOWERS FM THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE DROPPED TSTMS FM THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS
EVENING AS THOSE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED AND TSTMS NO LONGER ACTIVE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 721 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO DROP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AND THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE
IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PRODUCING TSTMS OVER NWRN CO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SUSPECT THIS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD BUT MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING SOME LOWER POPS TO THE URBAN CORRIDOR LATE
TONIGHT...THIS COULD BE THE FEATURE THAT COULD PRODUCE A TSTMS OR
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
COLORADO IS IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY WITH MAIN ELONGATED UPPER
TROF OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO SOUTH DAKOTA.
THERE IS WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES
INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THERE IS HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST
COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH FAVORED OROGRAPHIC FLOW
AND ALSO OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CYS RIDGE. COVERAGE WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED FURTHER EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY WITH A JET STREAK NOSING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WEAK UPWARD ASCENT ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COLORADO. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK
CONVERGENCE WITH FOCUS AREA ALONG PALMER DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FOCUSES HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA AND LESSER
AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS WYOMING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE LIFT ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK SUBSIDENCE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE...UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE AROUND DURING THE DAY TO CONTINUE LOW POPS IN MOST AREAS.
UPPER RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR AND MOISTURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES TO BRING A RENEWED...ALBEIT NOT
TERRIBLY HIGH...THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VARIABLE BUT
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD TREND TO SOUTHWESTERLY
IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AT KDEN. SOME RECENT HIRES MODELS SHOWING A
NORTHERLY PUSH AROUND 10Z...MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE CONVECTION NEAR
THE WYOMING BORDER WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PUSH. WITH
KFNL ALREADY GOING NORTHWESTERLY...HAVE ADDED THIS CHANGE GROUP
IN THE TAFS. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MAYBE A TSTM
MOVING OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SO WILL INCLUDE A VCSH TO THE KBJC...KDEN AND KAPA
TAFS.WINDS SHOULD TREND TO GO CLOCKWISE TO NORTHWESTERLY BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PUSH TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1120 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
...BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOMORROW...
CURRENTLY...PLEASANT SPRING DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE PLAINS. WINDS HAVE SWUNG AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL PUSH AND ARE GUSTING IN THE 20-30KT RANGE AT TIMES. CU FIELD
LOOKS PRETTY INACTIVE AS OF 2PM LOCAL TIME. A COUPLE STORMS...WITH
SOME SMALL HAIL...HAVE FORMED OVER THE EXTREME SE PLAINS...BUT
CURRENT ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NOT MUCH
DEVELOPMENT SEEN TO THE WEST. CURRENT SCT POPS OVER THE MTS MAY BE A
BIT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WITH STAY THE COURSE FOR NOW...WITH A COUPLE
HOURS OF HEATING LEFT THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW OVER THE MTS HAS LARGELY
ENDED PER WEB CAMS...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE
CONTDVD.
MAIN WX CONCERN WILL BE A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
MOVING INTO THE YELLOWSTONE AREA OF NW WY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO WRN CO LATE TONIGHT. LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS BRING A LINE
OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTS AND
ON TO THE PIKE PEAK REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. BASED ON
OTHER MODELS...EXTENT OF QPF MAY BE OVERDONE IN THE HRRR BUT THERE
ARE SOME SIGNS IN THE NAM THAT SHOW POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THROUGH
EARLY TUE MORNING. GFS IS DRY AND ARW/NMM ARE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN
THE HRRR. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN SCT POPS
FOR THE UPPER ARKANSAS AREA...AND ISOLD FOR THE PIKES PEAK AREA
THROUGH TUE MORNING. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST THESE AREAS IF
THE TRENDS FOR THIS DISTURBANCE CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.
TOMORROW...A BREAK IS EXPECTED AFTER THE MORNING CONVECTION BEFORE A
SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP DEVELOPS TUE AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE AND INCREASED UPSLOPE OVER THE SRN FRONT RANGE.
TEMPS ALOFT TOMORROW RISE A FEW DEGREES...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY PRECIP DEVELOPS AND HOW EXTENSIVE IT IS...THIS MAY LIMIT THE
HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE NRN
AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...OVER THE MTS AND N OF HGWY 50. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
TUE NIGHT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
WITH REGARDS TO PCPN OVR THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM SHOW SPOTTY
ISOLD TO SCT PCPN ACRS THE AREA IN THE EVENING HOURS...AND THEN FOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT HAS LITTLE OR NO PCPN . THE GFS SHOWS A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD PCPN IN THE EVENING...AND HAS A BLOB OF PERSISTENT PCPN
OVER PIKES PEAK...TELLER...FREMONT...WESTERN PUEBLO AND EL PASO
COUNTIES. IT APPEARS THAT THE DIFFERENCE IF THAT THE GFS HAS LOW TO
MID LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW THAT IS GENERATING THE PCPN...WHEREAS THE NAM
HAS NORTHERLY SFC WINDS AND SWRLY MID LEVEL WINDS. FOR NOW...WL KEEP
SCT PCPN CHANCES OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE
NIGHT.
ON WED AN UPR TROF AND A COUPLE DISTURBANCE MOVE ACRS THE STATE AND
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK FAIRLY GOOD FROM THE I-
25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW TO MID
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM GENERALLY KEEPS THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS DRY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE GFS SPREADS PCPN
ACRS THE PLAINS...BUT IN THE EVENING HOURS THE NAM ALSO SPREADS PCPN
ACRS THE PLAINS WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE AREA...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUM. AS THAT
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TOWARD THU MORNING...THE PCPN WL
GENERALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT SOME PCPN MAY LINGER INTO THU
MORNING OVR THE FAR SERN AREAS. WED WL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPS ACRS THE AREA BEING BELOW AVERAGE.
THU AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE WRN STATES AND THE FORECAST AREA
LOOKS DRY ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS. ON FRI A SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING
BY OVR NE AND KS...WL SEND A FRONT INTO SERN CO. FRI GENERALLY
LOOKS DRY BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS OVR THE MTN
AREAS. THE UPR RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY SAT NIGHT AS A NEW SYSTEM MOVES
FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...WITH MORE MSTR MOVING
ACRS THE AREA FOR SUN AND MON BRINGING A RETURN TO UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR PCPN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS/-TSRA TO KCOS AND KPUB LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM A
GENERAL EASTERLY DIRECTION AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY.
OVERALL...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS DURING THE NEXT 24H.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1044 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
THUNDERSTORMS MAINTAINING THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE OFF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO HAVE UPGRADED THE GRIDS TO INCLUDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
THE LATEST HRRR STILL SHOWS SOME PCPN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...AS A DISTURBANCE OVER
NORTHWESTERN CO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD. LTG STILL ONGOING SO
WL KEEP TSTMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE DIVIDE...FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH JUST RAIN SHOWERS FM THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE DROPPED TSTMS FM THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS
EVENING AS THOSE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED AND TSTMS NO LONGER ACTIVE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 721 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO DROP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AND THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE
IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PRODUCING TSTMS OVER NWRN CO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SUSPECT THIS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD BUT MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING SOME LOWER POPS TO THE URBAN CORRIDOR LATE
TONIGHT...THIS COULD BE THE FEATURE THAT COULD PRODUCE A TSTMS OR
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
COLORADO IS IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY WITH MAIN ELONGATED UPPER
TROF OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO SOUTH DAKOTA.
THERE IS WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES
INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THERE IS HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST
COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH FAVORED OROGRAPHIC FLOW
AND ALSO OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CYS RIDGE. COVERAGE WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED FURTHER EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY WITH A JET STREAK NOSING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WEAK UPWARD ASCENT ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COLORADO. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK
CONVERGENCE WITH FOCUS AREA ALONG PALMER DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FOCUSES HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA AND LESSER
AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS WYOMING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE LIFT ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK SUBSIDENCE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE...UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE AROUND DURING THE DAY TO CONTINUE LOW POPS IN MOST AREAS.
UPPER RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR AND MOISTURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES TO BRING A RENEWED...ALBEIT NOT
TERRIBLY HIGH...THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VRB BUT GENERALLY SLY WINDS
THIS EVENING SHOULD TREND TO SWLY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AT KDEN.
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAYBE A TSTM MOVING OFF THE
FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR AFT MIDNIGHT SO WL INCLUDE A
VSSH TO THE KBJC...KDEN AND KAPA TAFS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL CO AT THIS TIME CONTINUES TO TRACK
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
105 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA TODAY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN THE MID 50S AND MID 60S. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGHS INTO THE
70S. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT...WITH FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND FEATURING COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS SURGE OF HIGHER
THETA E AIR ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT SETS THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING
OVERALL SCENARIO THUS FAR TODAY WITH MAIN AREA OF RAIN MOVING AWAY
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF
INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE. IF THE HRRR HOLDS TRUE THEN A BAND OF
SHOWERS WOULD EXPAND AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND THEN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WOULD PERSIST
INTO TUESDAY. THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE TAKING PLACE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH A NE TREND SO SEE NO REASON NOT TO
INCREASE TO HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A MESS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SOME IN THE NE AND STEADY
MAYBE RISING IN THE SW DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PROGRESS NORTH THE
FRONT MAKES.
MAIN WAVE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING WITH FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW
AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT ASSESS SITUATION.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
AS LONG WAVE TROUGH EJECTS THROUGH THE PLAINS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL MOVE BACK IN WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MAINTAINED
CHC TO LIKELY POPS THOUGH THIS TIME FRAME WITH DRYING BEHIND IT AS
WAVE DEPARTS...FRONT IS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS UPPER LOW
OVER CANADA SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH SENDING TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL WITH
A SERIES OF WAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE FLOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OVER FEW DAYS WARRANTING AT LEAST SOME MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FRI NGT INTO SAT AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
MAINLY IFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD JUST NORTH OF SFC WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EDGE TO
JUST SOUTH OF THE US 30 CORRIDOR BY LATER TODAY. MOIST/BROAD
ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO SUPPORT PERIODS
RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID AFTN HOURS. COULD SEE SOME ISO
THUNDER AFTER 16-17Z BUT POINT CHANCES REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A VCTS
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
304 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SECONDARY CLOSED ROTATION ACROSS SW
KANSAS. UPSTREAM A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL MONTANA
AND ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO. ANOTHER UPPER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS IN OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH COLD FRONT/WARM FRONT EAST OF OUR CWA. A
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM YUMA COUNTY TO NEAR KGLD
AND SOUTH.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...VORTICITY ALOFT ROTATING ROUND UPPER LOW IN
THE SOUTH AND NORTH OF OUR CWA WILL COMBINE WITH RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR CWA TO BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD
AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN OUR FAR SOUTH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW INITIATION ROUGHLY ALONG COLORADO STATE LINE AND EAST WHERE
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE WITH PEAK COVERAGE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER SUNRISE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING PUT AN END TO ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY.
REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TD VALUES AROUND 50-58 ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA AND HAVE LED TO SB CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG
(WHICH RAPIDLY DROPS OFF IN THE WEST). DEEP LAYER SHEER HOWEVER IS
UNIMPRESSIVE (BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER BELOW 30KT)...SO MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE IN STRENGTH. CONSIDERING CAPE IN OUR EAST I
WOULDN`T RULE OUT A A FEW NEAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (HAIL/WIND)
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE CAPE IN OUR EAST.
SHORT RANGE ANALYSIS ALSO CURRENTLY SHOWS STRONG LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
AND GOOD 0-3KM CAPE NEAR SURFACE TROUGH IN OUR EAST AND THIS COULD
SET THE STAGE FOR LANDSPOUT DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE LOW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
UPDRAFTS IN THIS REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH RIGHT NOW.
TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER IDAHO WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH BASE OF TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND A STRONG
JET STREAK/MID LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BEGIN TO ROTATE TOWARDS OUR CWA.
DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WITHIN SW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING
OUR CWA FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL CONTINUES TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD ALONG
COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON BL MOISTURE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CAPE VALUES
COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 500 J/KG TO 1500 J/KG. SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER WITH DEEP MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE (PWATS OVER
1.0") WE COULD SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 BY
LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD HOLDS THE PATTERN IT
HAS BEEN SHOWING THE PAST FEW DAYS. A TROUGH IS SITTING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THIS FLOW STAYS CONSISTENT UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY WHEN A CLOSED
LOW PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEWER MODEL RUNS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOW THEY ARE HANDLING THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW.
WITH THE LOW PUSHING EAST...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO JOG EAST OVER THE
CWA AND HOLDS THIS PATTERN THROUGH MID DAY SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY THE CLOSED LOW STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES AND TAPS INTO
MOISTURE FROM MEXICO. THIS BRINGS PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW FORCING IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BESIDES BULK
SHEAR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S FRIDAY WITH A DROP
INTO THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. PREVIOUS RUNS OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATED FOG
SLIDING INTO KMCK FROM THE NORTHEAST. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF OF THAT FORECAST AND HAVE DONE SO AS WELL IN THE TAFS.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW IN ADDITION TO A
COLD FRONT. THESE TWO ITEMS...COMBINED WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A RICHLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
ALLOW SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN STORMS. INDICATED THAT THREAT AT KGLD WHERE AM MORE CONFIDENT
STORMS WILL PASS OVER AT PRESENT TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1136 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SECONDARY CLOSED ROTATION ACROSS SW
KANSAS. UPSTREAM A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL MONTANA
AND ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO. ANOTHER UPPER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS IN OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH COLD FRONT/WARM FRONT EAST OF OUR CWA. A
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM YUMA COUNTY TO NEAR KGLD
AND SOUTH.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...VORTICITY ALOFT ROTATING ROUND UPPER LOW IN
THE SOUTH AND NORTH OF OUR CWA WILL COMBINE WITH RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR CWA TO BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD
AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN OUR FAR SOUTH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW INITIATION ROUGHLY ALONG COLORADO STATE LINE AND EAST WHERE
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE WITH PEAK COVERAGE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER SUNRISE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING PUT AN END TO ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY.
REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TD VALUES AROUND 50-58 ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA AND HAVE LED TO SB CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG
(WHICH RAPIDLY DROPS OFF IN THE WEST). DEEP LAYER SHEER HOWEVER IS
UNIMPRESSIVE (BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER BELOW 30KT)...SO MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE IN STRENGTH. CONSIDERING CAPE IN OUR EAST I
WOULDN`T RULE OUT A A FEW NEAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (HAIL/WIND)
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE CAPE IN OUR EAST.
SHORT RANGE ANALYSIS ALSO CURRENTLY SHOWS STRONG LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
AND GOOD 0-3KM CAPE NEAR SURFACE TROUGH IN OUR EAST AND THIS COULD
SET THE STAGE FOR LANDSPOUT DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE LOW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
UPDRAFTS IN THIS REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH RIGHT NOW.
TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER IDAHO WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH BASE OF TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND A STRONG
JET STREAK/MID LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BEGIN TO ROTATE TOWARDS OUR CWA.
DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WITHIN SW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING
OUR CWA FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL CONTINUES TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD ALONG
COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON BL MOISTURE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CAPE VALUES
COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 500 J/KG TO 1500 J/KG. SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER WITH DEEP MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE (PWATS OVER
1.0") WE COULD SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 BY
LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE UPPER PLAINS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED POPS ON AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT THIS
POINT HOWEVER WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING BOTH THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH MOVES TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING IN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE IT
BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES EAST. POPS INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY...AS
ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST...DRIVEN
BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER MANITOBA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. PREVIOUS RUNS OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATED FOG
SLIDING INTO KMCK FROM THE NORTHEAST. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF OF THAT FORECAST AND HAVE DONE SO AS WELL IN THE TAFS.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW IN ADDITION TO A
COLD FRONT. THESE TWO ITEMS...COMBINED WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A RICHLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
ALLOW SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN STORMS. INDICATED THAT THREAT AT KGLD WHERE AM MORE CONFIDENT
STORMS WILL PASS OVER AT PRESENT TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1135 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SEMI-DIFFUSE DRYLINE LOCATED ROUGHLY
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SALINA TO
MEDICINE LODGE. CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ERUPT ALONG THE DRYLINE
JUST TO THE EAST OF P28.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AIRMASS DESTABILIZING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AS THE CLEARING CONTINUES...WITH MOST AREAS SLOWLY BECOMING
UNCAPPED. LATEST HI-RES MODELS (NAMNEST/ARW) SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE OK
PANHANDLE ROTATES EAST. GIVEN SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS...THINK A BROKEN LINE OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. BETTER BULK SHEAR IS
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...SO THINK THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
BE LOCATED ALONG OR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400. AS THE SUPERCELLS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KS PROGRESS TO THE EAST...THERE IS A A REMOTE CHANCE
OF A TORNADO...WHERE 0-1 KM SHEAR IS AROUND 20 KTS...BUT THINK THIS
CHANCE IS VERY SLIM...AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MARGINAL AND BETTER A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN OK. PREFER TO EMPHASIZE THE LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE
FLINT HILLS AND SE KS. BUT THE FURTHER EAST THE STORMS GET THE LESS
ORGANIZED THEY WILL BE...GIVEN THE BETTER BULK SHEAR SHIFTING INTO
SW MO BETWEEN 00-06Z. SO MORE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING...
WITH MOST OF THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT.
SHOULD SEE A NICE WARMUP ON TUE...AS S-SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WITH MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 80S.
LATEST GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW THE LOW MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNING TO
THE AREA FOR TUE EVENING/NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KS. EXPECT THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL KS FOR LATE TUE EVENING OR POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT TUE...WITH CONVERGENCE INCREASING ENOUGH FOR A STRONG
STORM CHANCE...LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS FROM KSLN TO KCNU.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS INTO SE KS
ON WED...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE FLINT
HILLS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED. BOTH THE GFS/NAM/WRF SHOW THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OR BEING SITUATED ACROSS SE KS FOR LATE
WED AFTERNOON...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS SE KS FOR LATE WED AFTERNOON OR WED EVENING. SO WILL KEEP
POPS GOING FOR MOST OF SE KS FOR WED EVENING.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THU WILL PLAY OUT.
THE NAM/WRF BLOWS UP A COMPLEX OF STORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND
DROPS IT E-SE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR LATE
WED NIGHT. WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THIS COMPLEX FURTHER SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PREFER TO KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL KS DRY FOR NOW...AND GO
WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS SOLUTION.
KETCHAM
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME WILL PLAY OUT. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG THE MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THE GFS FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE FASTER AND
ALLOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO THE PLAINS FASTER...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A MORE UNSETTLED WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A LOT
DRIER AND KEEPS THE MOISTURE RETURN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE
KS/OK BORDER. FOR CONSENSUS SAKE PREFER THE WETTER GFS
SOLUTION...KEEPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
KETCHAM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MID-HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHOULD
SLOWLY PUSH EAST OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS BY DAYBREAK. DECOUPLED...LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS AND A MOISTENED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO PATCHY
FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH STRONGEST SIGNAL PERHAPS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED DURING
DAYTIME WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 55 86 63 77 / 60 10 20 30
HUTCHINSON 52 86 59 73 / 30 10 20 30
NEWTON 53 85 61 75 / 60 10 20 30
ELDORADO 55 85 63 79 / 70 10 20 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 55 86 64 80 / 70 10 20 20
RUSSELL 51 84 54 69 / 20 10 40 30
GREAT BEND 51 85 54 70 / 20 10 30 30
SALINA 52 85 58 72 / 30 10 30 30
MCPHERSON 51 85 58 72 / 30 10 30 30
COFFEYVILLE 56 84 65 82 / 70 10 20 40
CHANUTE 57 83 64 80 / 60 10 20 40
IOLA 54 83 64 79 / 60 10 20 40
PARSONS-KPPF 58 84 65 81 / 70 10 20 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KETCHAM
LONG TERM...KETCHAM
AVIATION...JMC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
412 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 412 am CDT Tue May 10 2016
Quite convoluted series of MCS (Mesoscale Convective Systems)
moving through the WFO PAH forecast area during the next 72 hours.
Although a decent low level jet exists across the eastern Purchase
area of West Kentucky at this time, the boundary layer has been
stabilized from previous convection, disconnecting any downward
flux of strong winds, but support effective rainfall rates with
the elevated convection. At this time, will hold off any
consideration of a flash flood watch, but it may need to be
considered for parts of Southeast Missouri...extreme Southern
Illinois and the northern Pennyrile later today, should the next
MCS travel eastward slower than expected.
The MCS evolving over Southwest Missouri is forecast by the NAM-
WRF ARW, as well as the GFS and ECMWF guidance to grow-up scale
and move eastward later toward sunrise, filling the extreme
western areas of Southeast Missouri and extending east into
Southern Illinois between 7 am and 1 pm today. The HRRR model
families are seeming to initialize this system too far north,
keying in on the forcing and warm air advection over eastern
Illinois, south through the Kentucky Pennyrile. It appears that
another warm frontal zone is trying to set up behind the
convective activity currently sprawled the WFO PAH forecast area.
This gives a little more confidence and credence to renewed
convection this morning over Southeast Missouri. This also may
delay and renewed severe potential until this afternoon over parts
of Southwest Indiana, the northern Pennyrile, and extreme
Southeast Illinois, and the adjacent counties of the Purchase Area
of West Kentucky. By later tonight, the more persistent convection
should remain in the eastern Pennyrile and Southwest Indiana
counties.
It looks like severe potential will diminish on Wednesday and the
next shortwave of energy move from Upper Midwest into the Central
Plains and approaches ridging aloft. This will also reduce the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the day. The ridging
aloft will be dampened Late Wednesday night as an approaching cold
front and renewed warm front generation place the WFO PAH forecast
area in a very unstable warm sector. It is likely that this will
afford increased severe potential for the day 2 severe outlook
area. Thursday afternoon will likely see another round of severe
storms as the cold front finally, but slowly works through the
area with channel vorticity along and ahead of the main trough
axis. This axis should sweep through the area Thursday night
drying out the WFO PAH forecast area for the beginning of the
extended forecast period.
With the clouds, rain, and nearby mesoscale and convective
boundaries, went with a cooler and smaller diurnal range of
temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 412 am CDT Tue May 10 2016
The period will begin drier and cooler as a bubble high pressure
system moves southeast across the area on Friday. However,
another cold front will sweep quickly across the region Friday
night. This front is expected to be weakening as it approaches,
and right now the main chcs for precip will be north of the Ohio
River. Not expecting any big impacts with this front though.
High pressure will then settle back in for the first part of the
weekend . Despite a return to sunshine Saturday, most locations will
should stay in the mid and upper 60s most of the afternoon. For the
latter half of the weekend, a warm frontal zone is progged to set up
south of the PAH forecast area, between high surface pressure to the
north and low surface pressure developing in the southern Plains.
Though the smaller details of the deterministic models are more
murky at this time frame, it appears that shower and tstm chances
will be ramping up once again, esp as we head into the Sunday
night/Monday time frame. Will leave thunder mention out until the
warm front gets closer to the region on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
With the passage of a couple of upper level disturbances, MVFR
cigs/vsbys with VCTS/TSRA early, VFR cigs/vsbys and VCSH/VCTS
through the middle of the period, then VFR for the last 4-6 hours.
Winds generally out of the south to south southwest at 10-15 knots
with gusts up to 20 knots.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
525 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICAED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NW
ONTARIO THROUGH MICHIGAN BETWEEN A A TROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAIN INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA. AT THE
SFC...ESE GRADIENT FLOW OVER UPPER MI WAS INCREASING BETWEEN A RIDGE
FROM NE QUEBEC AND JAMES BAY AND LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS. IR LOOP
SHOWED BANDS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI WHILE THICKER CLOUDS
WITH PCPN WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH FROM SE MN INTO SRN WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS CENTER ON FIRE WEATHER RISKS TODAY.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BLOCKING RIDGE THROUGH THE REGION
AND VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL SLOW THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF
PCPN FROM ERN MN THROUGH SRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INTO NRN MO AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING
TOWARD NRN IL. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY AFFECT THE FAR SOUTH
NEAR MNM THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 5C TO 7C RANGE...EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND
MIXING THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND WITH LOWER READINGS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES DOWNWIND FROM
THE SE FLOW. THE MIXING SHOULD ALSO DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER
20S RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES FROM 20 TO 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
FCST 925 MB WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WILL ALSO SUPPORT GUSTS AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 25 MPH. ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE
THICKNESS OF THE HIGH CLOUDS AND THE IMPACT ON TEMPS/MIXING...FIRE
WEATHER PARAMETERS WERE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CRITICAL VALUES OVER INLAND
LOCATIONS TO UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BAND OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST...THE FORCING WEAKENS ENOUGH AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE
RIDGE SE THAT LITTLE IF ANY PCPN WILL MOVE INTO UPPER MI. ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
RIDGE ALOFT GIVES WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND INCREASED TROUGHING THU
INTO FRI. TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING THE DRY WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK SLIDES OVER
QUEBEC ON WED WITH RIDGE STILL LINGERING BACK OVER UPR MICHIGAN. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER DAKOTAS SLOWLY MOVES TO NORTHERN MN BY WED
EVENING. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER ON WED. NOT MUCH RAIN AS LOW-LEVELS STAY DRY WITH SFC
RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE AREA. COULD BE SPRINKLES OUT OF MID CLOUD
DECK. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...EXPECT RH VALUES
MUCH HIGHER THAN EARLY THIS WEEK. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE
OVER FAR EAST CWA WHERE SKIES MAY STAY MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY CLOSER
TO SFC RIDGE. WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 15 MPH SO FIRE WX
ISSUES SHOULD NOT BE AS ELEVATED AS THEY ARE TODAY.
WED NIGHT INTO THU WE WILL SEE IF WE CAN GET SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UNFORTUNATELY...NOT SOLD ON THIS IDEA YET.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIABILITY. OVERALL IDEA REMAINS IN PLACE.
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH HITS WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT AND DEFLECTS ACROSS
MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN BASE OF
TROUGH ALONG WITH SFC LOW LIFTS TOWARD UPR MICHIGAN LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU MORNING. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REVOLVE AROUND EASTERN EXTENT
OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN AND HOW MUCH ADDITONAL RAIN
WILL OCCUR FARTHER EAST ON NOSE OF H25 JET STREAK AND H85 THETA-E
ADVECTION. LIKELY POPS REMAIN ON TRACK...ITS THE AMOUNTS THAT ARE
MORE IN QUESTION. LEARY THAT THERE IS STILL MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOWN
BOTH AT THE SFC OR ELEVATED. THINK THIS MAY ACT TO KEEP MAJORITY OF
THETA-E ADVECTION PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEN...IF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH ENDS UP MAINLY WEST OF CWA AS
ECMWF SHOWS...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD BE DOWN TO CONVERGENCE ALONG
SFC-H85 FRONT AND MODEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. LACK OF FORCING AWAY FM
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN SUGGESTS QPF
OVER CNTRL AND EAST MAY END UP BLO 0.25 INCH MANY SPOTS. WESTERN CWA
MAY SEE TOWARD 0.50 INCH.
AFTER THE RAIN ON THU MINIMAL FORCING AROUND FOR PRECIP THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF STRONGER UPPER TROUGHING. NEXT SHORTWAVE
COMING IN DURING THE AFTN ON FRI MAY ALLOW FOR SHRA COVERAGE TO RAMP
UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE FRI AFTN INTO FRI
EVENING BRINGS STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. H85
TEMPS DROP TO -8C TO -10C BY 12Z ON SAT. NW WINDS AND LK SUPERIOR
WATER TEMPS +3 TO +5C WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES/LIFT ARE OCCURRING AS
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. MEAN TROUGH PERSISTS THROUGH REST OF THE
WEEKEND. STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH TROUGH IS SHOWING UP
AND WOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW OR JUST SNOW SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING AS H85 TEMPS REMAIN LOWER THAN -5C AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES ARE BLO 1300DAM. ECMWF MOST BULLISH WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS...WOULD RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
SAT NIGHT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST AND CENTRAL CWA. EVEN WITHOUT
ANY SNOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS CHILLY WITH WELL BLO NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SAT ALONG WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS
MODERATE TO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ON SUN AND BACK INTO THE 50S ON
MON AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS START
TO RISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
ALTHOUGH HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY EDGING N INTO
UPPER MI...LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. MARGINAL LLWS IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KSAW PER LATEST KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE AND
MODEL FCSTS. DAYTIME HEATING/DEEPENING MIXING WILL THEN RESULT IN
GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAINLY
OVER THE WESTERN LAKE TODAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL
THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER
TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO
LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW
AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ON ITS
SOUTHERN FLANK. A WEAKENING GRADIENT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW NW WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SAT. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001>015-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
433 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER NAMERICA WITH UPR RDG STRETCHING FM MANITOBA INTO THE
WRN GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO OVER SE CANADA...AN UPR TROF OVER
WRN CANADA/THE PAC NW AND ANOTHER SRN BRANCH CLOSED LO LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD THRU THE PLAINS. SFC HI PRES RDG EXTENDS FM HUDSON BAY
INTO ERN UPR MI. EXCEPT FOR SOME HI CLDS MAINLY NEAR THE WI
BORDER...SKIES ARE SUNNY WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB
AND ESPECIALLY THE APX RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS ONLY 0.18 INCH.
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 60S/NEAR 70 AWAY FM THE MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LKS ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE H85
TEMPS ARE APRCHG 7C...AND MIN RH HAS FALLEN AS LO AS 20-25 PCT WITH
DIURNAL MIXING. LOOKING TO THE SW...THICKER CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
PLAINS SRN BRANCH SHRTWV ARE ADVANCING SLOWLY NEWD THRU MN/WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS MAINLY ON FIRE WX ISSUES
AND NEED FOR FIRE WX HEADLINES ON TUE.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH AXIS OF VERY DRY AIR IS FCST TO PERSIST OVER THE CWA
AND MAINTAIN MOCLR SKIES...A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO
DOMINATE AS THE SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E. THE
STEADIER ESE FLOW WL HOLD LO TEMPS HIER THAN LAST NGT. EXPECT THE
LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE FAR ERN CWA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING HI
WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WL BE A BIT WEAKER. OVERALL...RH RECOVER
SHOULD BE POOR.
TUE...SRN BRANCH SHRTWV IS FCST TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NE BUT WEAKEN
AS IT RUNS INTO A PERSISTENT UPR RDG OVER NW ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH CLD
COVER IS LIKELY TO INCRS SW-NE...PREFER THE MODELS WHICH KEEP ANY
PCPN TO THE SW THRU 00Z WED GIVEN FCST PERSISTENCE OF LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY RETREATING SFC HI PRES/VERY DRY 12Z APX RAOB
THAT WL BE SOURCE AIRMASS. WITH SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BTWN FALLING
MSLP TO THE SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APRCHG ALBEIT WEAKENING SRN
BRANCH DISTURANCE AND THE HI TO THE ENE...H925 ESE WINDS ARE FCST TO
REACH 20-25 KTS...SUPPORTING SFC WINDS GUSTS 20-25 MPH...AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 30 MPH. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 6-8C
RANGE...MAX TEMPS WL AT LEAST APRCH 70 AWAY FM LK MODERATION. TENDED
TOWARD THE HI END OF GUIDANCE AWAY FM THE LK COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN
A DRIER SCENARIO WITH JUST MAINLY HI CLDS EXPECTED. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH THE FIRE WX CUSTOMERS AND CONSIDERING THE DRYNESS
OF SHORT TERM FUELS BEFORE GREENUP/POOR RH RECOVERY TNGT AS WELL AS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED HUDSON BAY HI WX PATTERN/TIME OF YEAR AND
DRYNESS OF SOURCE 12Z APX RAOB...OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR
15Z-24Z DESPITE CONCERNS OFFICIAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
RIDGE ALOFT GIVES WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND INCREASED TROUGHING THU
INTO FRI. TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING THE DRY WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK SLIDES OVER
QUEBEC ON WED WITH RIDGE STILL LINGERING BACK OVER UPR MICHIGAN. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER DAKOTAS SLOWLY MOVES TO NORTHERN MN BY WED
EVENING. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER ON WED. NOT MUCH RAIN AS LOW-LEVELS STAY DRY WITH SFC
RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE AREA. COULD BE SPRINKLES OUT OF MID CLOUD
DECK. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...EXPECT RH VALUES
MUCH HIGHER THAN EARLY THIS WEEK. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE
OVER FAR EAST CWA WHERE SKIES MAY STAY MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY CLOSER
TO SFC RIDGE. WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 15 MPH SO FIRE WX
ISSUES SHOULD NOT BE AS ELEVATED AS THEY ARE TODAY.
WED NIGHT INTO THU WE WILL SEE IF WE CAN GET SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UNFORTUNATELY...NOT SOLD ON THIS IDEA YET.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIABILITY. OVERALL IDEA REMAINS IN PLACE.
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH HITS WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT AND DEFLECTS ACROSS
MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN BASE OF
TROUGH ALONG WITH SFC LOW LIFTS TOWARD UPR MICHIGAN LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU MORNING. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REVOLVE AROUND EASTERN EXTENT
OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN AND HOW MUCH ADDITONAL RAIN
WILL OCCUR FARTHER EAST ON NOSE OF H25 JET STREAK AND H85 THETA-E
ADVECTION. LIKELY POPS REMAIN ON TRACK...ITS THE AMOUNTS THAT ARE
MORE IN QUESTION. LEARY THAT THERE IS STILL MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOWN
BOTH AT THE SFC OR ELEVATED. THINK THIS MAY ACT TO KEEP MAJORITY OF
THETA-E ADVECTION PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEN...IF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH ENDS UP MAINLY WEST OF CWA AS
ECMWF SHOWS...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD BE DOWN TO CONVERGENCE ALONG
SFC-H85 FRONT AND MODEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. LACK OF FORCING AWAY FM
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN SUGGESTS QPF
OVER CNTRL AND EAST MAY END UP BLO 0.25 INCH MANY SPOTS. WESTERN CWA
MAY SEE TOWARD 0.50 INCH.
AFTER THE RAIN ON THU MINIMAL FORCING AROUND FOR PRECIP THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF STRONGER UPPER TROUGHING. NEXT SHORTWAVE
COMING IN DURING THE AFTN ON FRI MAY ALLOW FOR SHRA COVERAGE TO RAMP
UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE FRI AFTN INTO FRI
EVENING BRINGS STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. H85
TEMPS DROP TO -8C TO -10C BY 12Z ON SAT. NW WINDS AND LK SUPERIOR
WATER TEMPS +3 TO +5C WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES/LIFT ARE OCCURRING AS
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. MEAN TROUGH PERSISTS THROUGH REST OF THE
WEEKEND. STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH TROUGH IS SHOWING UP
AND WOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW OR JUST SNOW SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING AS H85 TEMPS REMAIN LOWER THAN -5C AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES ARE BLO 1300DAM. ECMWF MOST BULLISH WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS...WOULD RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
SAT NIGHT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST AND CENTRAL CWA. EVEN WITHOUT
ANY SNOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS CHILLY WITH WELL BLO NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SAT ALONG WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS
MODERATE TO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ON SUN AND BACK INTO THE 50S ON
MON AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS START
TO RISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
ALTHOUGH HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY EDGING N INTO
UPPER MI...LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. MARGINAL LLWS IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KSAW PER LATEST KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE AND
MODEL FCSTS. DAYTIME HEATING/DEEPENING MIXING WILL THEN RESULT IN
GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND
TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM
THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS
TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. WEAKENING GRAD WITH
HIGH PRES RIDGEBUILDING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW NW WINDS
TO SUBSIDESOME ON SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001>015-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
135 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER NAMERICA WITH UPR RDG STRETCHING FM MANITOBA INTO THE
WRN GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO OVER SE CANADA...AN UPR TROF OVER
WRN CANADA/THE PAC NW AND ANOTHER SRN BRANCH CLOSED LO LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD THRU THE PLAINS. SFC HI PRES RDG EXTENDS FM HUDSON BAY
INTO ERN UPR MI. EXCEPT FOR SOME HI CLDS MAINLY NEAR THE WI
BORDER...SKIES ARE SUNNY WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB
AND ESPECIALLY THE APX RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS ONLY 0.18 INCH.
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 60S/NEAR 70 AWAY FM THE MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LKS ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE H85
TEMPS ARE APRCHG 7C...AND MIN RH HAS FALLEN AS LO AS 20-25 PCT WITH
DIURNAL MIXING. LOOKING TO THE SW...THICKER CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
PLAINS SRN BRANCH SHRTWV ARE ADVANCING SLOWLY NEWD THRU MN/WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS MAINLY ON FIRE WX ISSUES
AND NEED FOR FIRE WX HEADLINES ON TUE.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH AXIS OF VERY DRY AIR IS FCST TO PERSIST OVER THE CWA
AND MAINTAIN MOCLR SKIES...A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO
DOMINATE AS THE SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E. THE
STEADIER ESE FLOW WL HOLD LO TEMPS HIER THAN LAST NGT. EXPECT THE
LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE FAR ERN CWA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING HI
WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WL BE A BIT WEAKER. OVERALL...RH RECOVER
SHOULD BE POOR.
TUE...SRN BRANCH SHRTWV IS FCST TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NE BUT WEAKEN
AS IT RUNS INTO A PERSISTENT UPR RDG OVER NW ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH CLD
COVER IS LIKELY TO INCRS SW-NE...PREFER THE MODELS WHICH KEEP ANY
PCPN TO THE SW THRU 00Z WED GIVEN FCST PERSISTENCE OF LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY RETREATING SFC HI PRES/VERY DRY 12Z APX RAOB
THAT WL BE SOURCE AIRMASS. WITH SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BTWN FALLING
MSLP TO THE SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APRCHG ALBEIT WEAKENING SRN
BRANCH DISTURANCE AND THE HI TO THE ENE...H925 ESE WINDS ARE FCST TO
REACH 20-25 KTS...SUPPORTING SFC WINDS GUSTS 20-25 MPH...AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 30 MPH. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 6-8C
RANGE...MAX TEMPS WL AT LEAST APRCH 70 AWAY FM LK MODERATION. TENDED
TOWARD THE HI END OF GUIDANCE AWAY FM THE LK COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN
A DRIER SCENARIO WITH JUST MAINLY HI CLDS EXPECTED. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH THE FIRE WX CUSTOMERS AND CONSIDERING THE DRYNESS
OF SHORT TERM FUELS BEFORE GREENUP/POOR RH RECOVERY TNGT AS WELL AS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED HUDSON BAY HI WX PATTERN/TIME OF YEAR AND
DRYNESS OF SOURCE 12Z APX RAOB...OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR
15Z-24Z DESPITE CONCERNS OFFICIAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 534 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE BY MID-LATE THIS WEEK
AS A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA WITH BUILDING 5H
RIDGE HEIGHTS INTO NW CANADA/SE ALASKA INDUCING AN AMPLIFIED AND
PERSISTENT TROUGH DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NE CONUS...INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIDGING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK OVER UPPER MI BUT THEN AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A
BROAD...AMPLIFIED TROUGH TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION TEMPS WILL FALL
WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
WILL BRING NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU. AFTER THAT...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH BASE OF
THE BROAD TROUGH WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH SCT PCPN ACROSS
UPPER MI THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS
AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND.
BEGINNING TUE NIGHT AND WED...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY E-SE
FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER WRN QUEBEC SHOULD MAINTAIN MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH COULD MAYBE
BRING A FEW SPRINKLES INTO THE FAR SCNTRL CWA BUT NOTHING MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WL BE WARRANTED.
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE WRN LAKES BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES E WED NIGHT AS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL
CANADA. A SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE FM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. IT IS THAT WAVE ALONG WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SFC TO H85 CONVERGENCE
ALONG INITIAL COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT WL BRING A BROKEN BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. MODELS INCLUDING SREF
INDICATE BULK OF SFC AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING WELL SOUTH
OF CWA SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TSRA WITH THE SHRA. SINCE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE/PVA STAYS WELL TO NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
SECONDARY WAVE LIFTS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...SHOWERS
WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH FARTHER EAST AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS ACROSS
CWA. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DEPICT TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BE WELL UNDER A QUARTER INCH
FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE FAR WEST ALONG TRACK OF SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE. SO IN SHORT...NOT MUCH RELIEF IS EXPECTED FROM RECENT DRY
STRETCH.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT WILL PUSH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR FROM CENTRAL CANADA BEGINNING FRI. COLD AIR LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH MODELS INDICATING
COLDEST 8H TEMPS OF -8 TO POSSIBLY -10C OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SAT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF SCT SHOWERS TO THE CWA WHICH PERHAPS COULD BECOME
NUMEROUS AT TIMES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...AS TEMPS SHOULD GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. COLD TEMPS WILL ALSO LIKELY SUPPORT
SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND IN
EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION. MODEL RESOLUTION/TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BROAD/AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE POORLY HANDLED
LATE WEEK/WEEKEND TIME FRAME SO NO MORE THAN CHC POPS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON SUNDAY...SO IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES LATER FCSTS MAY NEED TO BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY
AT SOME POINT FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
ALTHOUGH HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY EDGING N INTO
UPPER MI...LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. MARGINAL LLWS IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KSAW PER LATEST KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE AND
MODEL FCSTS. DAYTIME HEATING/DEEPENING MIXING WILL THEN RESULT IN
GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND
TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM
THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS
TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. WEAKENING GRAD WITH
HIGH PRES RIDGEBUILDING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW NW WINDS
TO SUBSIDESOME ON SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001>015-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
125 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 125 AM TUESDAY...
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS MOISTURE POOLING ALONG A STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY IN VICINITY OF OR JUST NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. 925 AND
850MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS THIS MOISTURE EXTENDING IN A WEST-EAST BAND
WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. A MID
LEVEL S/W DEPICTED BY THE NEAR TERM MODELS AND CONFIRMED BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL LIFT NEWD
OVERNIGHT...CROSSING OUR REGION IN THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME. WHILE THE
CAM PRESENTATIONS DEPICT VIRTUALLY NOTHING ACROSS OUR REGION....THE
HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN DRIFTING NEWD ACROSS NE
GEORGIA INTO UPSTATE SC AHEAD OF THE S/W. THE HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING LIGHT PRECIP FALLING ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-40/85 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. GRANTED...PRECIP WILL BE FALLING
FROM A CLOUD BASE 8000-10000FT (AS PER 00Z GSO SOUNDING)...SO WHAT
RAIN THAT DOES REACH THE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT...TOTALING NO WORSE
THAN A HUNDREDTH OR A TRACE AT MOST SPOTS.
MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR 60-LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN /FLATTEN/ AND
TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON TUE. THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE VA BORDER TUE AF/EVE...SIMILAR TO THIS AFT/EVE.
WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE TRIAD...ON THE
ORDER OF 250-500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. HOWEVER...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED ALONG/NORTH OF THE VA BORDER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL
FORCING (OR A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN LARGELY
NORTH OF CENTRAL NC. DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES WILL BE
MORE POSSIBLE ON TUE THAN TODAY GIVEN A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE AFT/EVE HOURS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE
TIMING/MAGNITUDE/LOCATION OF SUCH FEATURES IS LOW AT THIS RANGE...
ESP IN AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...
WILL CONFINE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO AREAS NEAR THE VA
BORDER DURING THE LATE AFT/EVE HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO DAY...
ALBEIT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S. LOWS TUE NIGHT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...IN THE MID 60S. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...
WED-THU: A MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELONGATED AND SHEARED...WITH A
REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT THE MODELS SUGGEST WILL REACH THE GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION BY EARLY WED...THEN DRIFT TO THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY VICINITY (MAINLY NORTH OF NC) BY THU AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL BE
QUITE WARM /IN THE 80S/ AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOTH DAYS OWING TO
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM...AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S.
THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED...MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD
CONSEQUENTLY BE OVER THE NRN PIEDMONT AND NRN COASTAL PLAIN /IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE PASSING PERTURBATION ALOFT AND THE
FRONTAL ZONE/ WITH A LESSER CHANCE ELSEWHERE...PROBABLY DRIVEN BY AN
APPALACHIAN LEE TROUGH AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE EDGES
OF MORNING CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR AN MCV
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION...WHICH PARTICULARLY THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS OF THE GFS INDICATE MAY CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
SERVE AS A TRIGGER ON THU. ASIDE FROM MESOSCALE INFLUENCES SUCH AS
THE POSSIBLE MCV...THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE WEAK /GENERALLY BETWEEN 20-30 KTS/ AND SUPPORTIVE OF
PULSE AND MULTI-CELLULAR STORM MODES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: ON THE HEELS OF THE LEAD PERTURBATION EXITING
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THU AFTERNOON...AND FOLLOWING BRIEF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING LATE THU-EARLY THU NIGHT...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH ALOFT AND PRECEDING HEIGHTS FALLS WILL APPROACH/
CROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE THU NIGHT-FRI. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT THE MODELS INDICATE WILL
CROSS CENTRAL NC FRI AFT-EARLY FRI NIGHT...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ABOUT
6 HOURS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WHILE SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY MAXIMIZE DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WIDESPREAD MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND STILL-RELATIVELY-WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO
INCREASE ONLY TO AROUND 30 KTS...SHOULD MITIGATE ANY APPRECIABLE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
SAT-MON: A VORTEX WILL SETTLE SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...AND THIS WILL CAUSE A SECONDARY POLAR
SURFACE FRONT TO CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES CENTERED AROUND
LATE SAT OR SAT EVE. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL WARM AND DRY THE AIR IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AS WELL
AS LIMIT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE FRONT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE
A WARM AND MAINLY DRY DAY SAT...WITH JUST THE SLIGHTEST OF CHANCES
OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER NEAR THE VA BORDER DURING THE LATE AFT OR
EVE. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN A MILD AND DRY DAY
SUN...BUT THE RETREAT OF THE FRONTAL ZONE --BENEATH AN AXIS OF 850-
700 MB WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION-- WILL YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS SUN
NIGHT...AND SLIGHT CONVECTIVE CHANCES MON.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM TUESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THOUGH THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CHANCE WILL INCREASE TO
LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...BADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1155 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES OR HIGH SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME STRATUS TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF I-44. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE OF PATCHES OF GROUND FOG
AROUND SUNRISE...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
CMS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER TO FINE-TUNE THE TIMING OF
REMAINING POPS. SO FAR...THIS SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE.
THE REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO END COMPLETELY AROUND 10 TO 11 PM.
THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME VERY DIFFUSE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REFORM
WELL TO THE WEST TOMORROW...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. SOME PATCHES OF GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BUT WILL NOT
LAST LONG IF THEY DO DEVELOP.
AT THIS TIME...NO FURTHER FORECAST CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
AVIATION...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z AROUND
KPNC...BUT ALL OTHER STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN 1/3 OF
OKLAHOMA AFTER 00Z. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS AT MOST SITES WILL DROP
OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TOWARD SUNRISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME DOMINANT...AND WILL INCREASE SLOWLY IN SPEED THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CMS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
ATTENTION IS PRIMARILY ON THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA BY 00Z... THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER
00Z... ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS HIGHER THAN INITIALIZATION OR SYNOPTIC MODELS WOULD GIVE FOR
THIS EVENING. AS DISCUSSED ELSEWHERE... THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE FIRST WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH
HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND IMPROVING WIND FIELDS WITH TIME THAT
WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AND SOME TORNADO RISK. FARTHER
NORTH... AIRMASS WILL HAVE WHAT EVOLVES INTO A MORE INVERTED-V
LOOK TO THE SOUNDING SO WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT TO THE
NORTH. DRYLINE PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN LURKING IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE AREA OR JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT AND
WASHING OUT. BUT THEN TOMORROW IT WILL BE VERY WARM... ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 90S. THEN A
MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
BRING STORM CHANCES AND THEN COOLER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 57 89 66 85 / 10 0 10 30
HOBART OK 57 92 64 86 / 0 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 95 67 88 / 0 0 10 30
GAGE OK 53 90 56 78 / 0 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 57 88 66 84 / 60 0 20 20
DURANT OK 66 90 68 85 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
347 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL THEN FLOW INTO
THE BORDERLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN TO WARM DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH IT
MAY ALSO BE BREEZY TO WINDY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WILL REMAIN AT THE BASE OF A
MEAN TROUGH COVERING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THE NEXT TWO DAYS
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUSTAINED WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THUS WARM DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHTER WINDS. TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES WITH
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA
IN A SUBSIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FURTHER SUPPORTING WARM DRY
CONDITIONS.
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL MEANWHILE MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. INITIALLY THE CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES WILL PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER AS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SO BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM 40 F NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TO 50 OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING
PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO AROUND .7 TO 1 INCH WITH AIR MASS
BECOMING UNSTABLE WITH FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THESE ELEMENTS WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE PRESENCE OF RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
UNFAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT WHICH MAY KEEP COVERAGE MOSTLY IN THE
ISOLATED CATEGORY.
BY SUNDAY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING DRIER AIR BACK INTO
THE CWA FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD. LONGER RANGE MODELS
ALSO FORECAST RATHER STRONG LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AREA ON SUNDAY SUGGESTING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 10/12Z-11/12Z.
VFR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN
20 KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WESTERLY WINDS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWEST HUMIDITY WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 15
PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY BUT WITH SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN
20 MPH. THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
WILL THEN FLOW INTO THE BORDERLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM DRY WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 86 59 89 61 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 85 56 88 58 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 85 53 86 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 86 55 86 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 64 45 64 44 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 85 54 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 77 48 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 84 52 85 53 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 84 50 86 52 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 85 59 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 87 51 89 52 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 88 56 91 59 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 81 56 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 86 56 89 58 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 85 56 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 85 57 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 85 51 86 53 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 87 51 88 53 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 86 53 88 55 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 85 55 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 75 49 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 74 46 74 45 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 72 45 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 77 43 78 43 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 82 52 83 52 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 85 53 85 54 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 77 40 79 41 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 79 47 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 82 44 84 45 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 79 41 82 43 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 80 48 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 84 51 86 55 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 84 51 86 54 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 83 51 86 54 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 79 50 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05 ROGASH
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
432 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
...Possible Thunderstorms Southeast...
Thunderstorms may develop across our southeastern counties today and
tonight. Models continue to indicate the potential for
thunderstorms...mainly along and southeast of a line from Ozona, to
San Angelo, to Coleman. The HRRR begins development across our
Northwest Hill Country counties around 2 pm CDT and then expends the
development area northwest. The Storm prediction Center has much of
this same area designated as either marginal or slight risk areas.
But, models still don`t indicate very good upper support. So, the
main forcing will be thermodynamic. Given low confidence for exactly
where and when any thunderstorms may develop, will continue only
slight chance PoPs for the today and tonight periods.
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Wednesday afternoon, a dryline is expected to set up along the
western edge of West Central Texas from Iraan to Sterling City to
Sweetwater to Childress. Isolated thunderstorms are possible
along/east of the dryline, but there is a better chance of storms
Wednesday night, as an upper shortwave moves through the Central
Plains and a cold front approaches the Big Country toward morning.
The best potential for storms will be in the Big Country, where
the best dynamics are in place. Day 3 SPC outlook has
marginal/slight risk of storms for the I-20 and northward area.
Still, a storm could become severe anywhere, if it develops, as
the GFS model forecasts SB CAPES of 2000-4000 J/KG along and east
of a Sonora...San Angelo...Abilene...Throckmorton line.
Storm chances continue Thursday as a cold front moves through.
Again a few severe thunderstorms possible, particularly south of
the Big Country where GFS was indicating MUCAPES of 2000 to 3000
J/KG. Day 3 SPC outlook has a marginal risk of severe storms
Thursday for all of West Central Texas.
There is small lull in showers and thunderstorms Friday and
Friday night, before thunderstorms chances return Saturday into
Sunday. There are several shortwaves in zonal flow aloft along
with possible dryline interaction Sunday/Sunday night. Instability
is not a strong (CAPES were in the 1000-1500 J/KG) but can not
rule out a severe storm. While a cold front brings more stable
air Monday night and Tuesday, a few storms could develop, mainly
in eastern sections where more moisture will be available.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 93 67 91 61 / 5 10 20 40
San Angelo 92 66 92 64 / 20 10 20 20
Junction 92 65 89 64 / 20 20 30 20
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
99/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS EUREKA CA
345 AM PDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER NW CA WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND INLAND AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AT THE COAST THROUGH MID
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW
FRIDAY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NW CA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...COOL TEMPERATURES OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. DESPITE THE COOL START STILL
EXPECT A FAIRLY WARM DAY DUE TO A LITTLE LESS ONSHORE WIND
LATER. NEAR COAST TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S AND TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE COASTAL INLAND PLAIN. THUS ANOTHER NICE SPRING DAY
FOR NW CA AS INLAND AREAS WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND ANOTHER
WARM AFTERNOON. THIS QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PAC WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
LINGERS AROUND 150W AND 40N. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OFFSHORE NW CA
SHOULD SEE OFFSHORE FLOW AND DECREASING MARINE STRATUS EACH DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN SUNSHINE COASTAL MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO RISE A BIT GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S...AND NEAR 70 ON WED. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS SHOULD WARM TO
JUST ABOVE NORMAL. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LOW WILL
PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THURSDAY...THEN GET PULLED NORTH EASTWARD
INTO THE MAIN JET STREAM FRIDAY. COASTAL STRATUS SHOULD INCREASE
SOMEWHAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW.
INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN WARM THURSDAY...THEN SEE COOLING FRIDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS START TO DROP. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO COME TOGETHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ASHORE SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN VERY LOW END CHANCE
POPS MAINLY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT EXPECT THOSE TO RISE
WITH TIME. CLIMO POPS...AFTER ALL...ARE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
NORTH COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR. JT/ST
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY AS
WEAK EASTERLY FLOW DRIES UP ANY LINGERING POCKETS OF STRATUS TUCKED
ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH SHIFTS WEST AND PROLONGS DRY, OFFSHORE FLOW. KML
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND STEEP SEAS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. ON TUESDAY MORNING...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SOUTHWARD TO JUST OFF
THECOAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SET UP
ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA. THE COMBINED WEATHER FEATURES HELP TO
MAINTAIN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE
EXPECTED ON THE OUTSIDE WATERS THIS MORNING. STEEP SEAS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED, WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 8 TO 10 FEET AND WAVE PERIOD OF
AROUND 8 TO 9 SECONDS THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
RELAX THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE
WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVE HEIGHTS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. UTILIZE RUC13 IN THE NEAR TERM THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION TO A BLEND OF HI-RES ARW ANDHI-RES NMM
MODELS TONIGHT. UTILIZE A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/GEM/OFFICIAL FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT
AVERAGE.
/RCL
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1040 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Upper level low rotating through the region and driving showers
and some scattered thunder this morning. Most of the precip has
cleared ILX to the north, but a smaller wave is passing through
southeastern Illinois. There had been a bit of a gap in the clouds
between the two waves allowing for some sunshine in the breaks.
However, the skies have quickly clouded up as the sfc temps
warmed. HRRR pretty persistent that some showers are likely to
recur this afternoon, at least partially, if not entirely driven
by diurnal heating in the wake of the upper low. Some minor
updates already in for hourly trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Another wet day is on tap across central and southeast Illinois.
WAA/isentropic ascent will continue for most of the day, helping to
maintain a relatively warm/humid airmass across the area. An upper-
level trof axis, currently extending from the northern Plains into
the Mid-Mississippi Valley, will move across the area today as it
shears out. A stronger, smaller scale, circulation is rounding the
base of the trof over western Missouri, and is expected to track
across southern Illinois later today.
With copious moisture across the area today, and forcing to act upon
it, expect the entire forecast area to see showers and a few storms
at some point today. The best chance for thunderstorms will be seen
across the eastern portion of the forecast area during the afternoon
where the best instability & forcing will coexist at the same time.
As far as the severe storm threat goes, peak diurnal instability is
likely to be limited to a few hundred j/kg of CAPE over most of the
area. However, southeast Illinois may see CAPE values as high as
1500 j/kg. Bulk shear values are expected to be relatively modest,
generally 30 kts or less. So the best chance for severe storms
appears to be south of I-70 this afternoon where instability will be
highest and remnants of western Missouri circulation should track.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT Tue May 10 2016
An active weather pattern expected to continue through Wed
night across central IL, and into Thu in eastern IL as a cold front
moves through by then. SPC continues to show a marginal to slight
risk of severe storms mainly during late afternoon and evening hours
next few days over much of area.
552 dm 500 mb low over southern MT with broad upper level trof
extending from northern Rockies into the central Plains. 00Z models
bring upper level trof into the Midwest by Wed night and brings a
cold front east across IL overnight Wed night and thru eastern IL
Thu morning. A warm/moist and unstable airmass to prevail ahead of
this system next few days bringing periodic showers and
thunderstorms along with some risk of severe storms. Showers and
thunderstorms chances to diminish from west to east during this
evening and SPC has marginal risk of severe over most over CWA into
mid evening with slight risk from Robinson to Flora south where
MUCapes peak from 1500-2500 J/kg, while bulk shear in southeast IL
is 30-40 kts. Lows tonight in the upper 50s in central IL and lower
60s in southeast IL.
Looks like a lull in shower and thunderstorms activity overnight
into Wed, with warm highs in the low to mid 80s Wed and moist
dewpoints in the 60s. Thunderstorms chances increasing in western
IL late Wed afternoon and spreading east across central and
eastern IL Wed evening and continue through Wed night. SPC has
shifted slight risk a bit further west Wed evening west of highway
51, since approaching cold front is a bit slower to arrive. Cold
front to move into central IL late Wed night and pass thru eastern
IL Thu morning. This will continue chances of
showers/thunderstorms in Eastern IL Thu especially Thu morning.
Highs Thu range from around 70F west of the IL river to mid to
upper 70s in eastern IL.
Dry conditions expected Thu night and Friday morning as high
pressure moves into the MO and mid MS river valley, while upper
level trof over the Great Lakes. A disturbance tracks from the
northern plains into central IL by Friday night. This bring slight
chances of showers to IL river valley Fri afternoon and across area
Fri night with isolated thunderstorms possible south of I-72. Highs
Fri in the mid to upper 60s central IL and around 70F in southeast
IL. Dry and cool weather expected Sat and Sat night as another high
pressure settles into the mid MS and ohio river valley. Highs
Saturday only in the upper 50s and lower 60s, while lows Sat night
in the lower to middle 40s. Yet another disturbance arrives Sunday
afternoon into Monday night returning chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Highs Sunday in low to mid 60s elevate into
mid to upper 60s on Monday/Tuesday, which still are below normal
highs in low to mid 70s for mid May.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Expect conditions to improve to VFR across the central Illinois
terminals by midday as a lull in the precipitation risk moves
across the area. Shower/storm chances will increase again this
afternoon and early evening, but coverage should be low enough to
cover with a VCTS mention at this time. Dry weather should develop
this evening, with skies possibly scattering out. If skies clear
sufficiently, MVFR or possibly IFR conditions will develop
overnight with stratus/fog.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1004 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN IA AND
INTO CENTRAL IL. IN THE DVN CWA...THIS BOUNDARY WAS JUST NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 FROM ABOUT GALESBURG TO BURLINGTON TO OTTUMWA. THE
FRONT SHOULD SHIFT SOMEWHAT NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
EASTERN IA. SUNSHINE WAS OCCURRING IN SOUTHEAST IA AND WESTERN IL
WITH SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG. SHEAR IS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY EXCEPT
FOR RIGHT ON THE BOUNDARY WHERE ANY RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM
UPDRAFT WILL BE ABLE TO BE STRETCHED RIGHT ON THE BOUNDARY. AWAY
FROM THE BOUNDARY SHEAR IS VERY WEAK SO ANY TORNADO THAT CAN FORM
WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND WEAK AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY.
THERE IS A UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HRRR
DEVELOPING CONVECTION BY AROUND NOON OR 1 PM. A NEGATIVE IS
YESTERDAY THERE WAS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND A STRONG WAVE APPROACHING
AND THAT HAS SHIFTED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL MONITOR THE
CLOUD TRENDS AND BOUNDARY LOCATION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS PRODUCED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN OF
1 TO 3 INCHES... WITH THE HEAVIEST OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
IA WHICH WAS LEADING TO FLOODING ON THE ENGLISH RIVER. RADAR
SHOWS ANOTHER RAMPING UP OF COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
FROM NORTHERN MO THROUGH WEST CENTRAL IL LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES LATER TDY WILL SEE PERIOD
OF DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY AM. THEN
RENEWED CONVECTION EXPECTED WEDNESDAY PM/EVE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT STORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SEVERE RISK IS NOT ZERO
LATER TODAY BUT LIMITED AND PERHAPS SIMILAR TO THAT OF YSTDY TO
A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO GIVEN WEAK SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT OVER
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHWEST IL AND SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH CAPES 250-500 J/KG FOR SHALLOW CIRCULATIONS
POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE MODULATED BY THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH
COOLEST READINGS LIKELY NORTH WHERE STAYED AT OR BELOW COOLEST
GUIDANCE WITH LOWER 60S... WHILE WARMEST FAR SOUTH (LOWER TO FEW
MID 70S) WHERE BEST CHC FOR FEW BREAKS IN CLOUDS.
TONIGHT... ANY PRECIP TO FOCUS MORE OVER IL COUNTIES EARLY THIS
EVENING WHILE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. EVENTUALLY WILL SEE
A DRY PERIOD OVER THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH INCOMING SUBSIDENCE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE
PASSING TROUGH. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH WET GROUND... BUT TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH DRIER E/NE FLOW TO MENTION ATTIM. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM AND THEN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT USHERS IN A COUPLE OF WAVES AND COOL...BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND. A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS SHAPING
UP FROM WEDNESDAY AND A POTENTIAL FROST HEADLINE FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY...WITH DIGGING SHRTWV TO OUR WEST...THINK THE POPS ON
THURSDAY AM ARE TOO FAST. WEAK H85 MOISTURE CONV IS THE ONLY REAL
LARGE SCALE FORCING TO MOVE INTO THE SE AROUND 18Z. HAVE GONE WITH
SCHC POPS ACROSS A SMALL AREA. NOW IF THERE IS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
TONIGHT THAT SPILLS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN THIS WHOLE
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED. AT THIS TIME...H85 JET AND
OTHER NOCTURNAL STORM PARAMETERS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS. LETS DIVE
INTO WHAT IS MOST LIKELY.
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO W IA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. WITH WEAK
H5 RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA...SUNLIGHT WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT ACROSS
THE AREA. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S. THERE ARE SOME
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AFTER DRYING EAST WINDS
TODAY. IF MOISTURE RETURN CAN BE REALIZED AND THE SUN COMES
OUT...THE MEAN SBCAPE SOUTH OF I80 COULD BE CLOSE 2000 J/KG. WITH
THE EJECTING WAVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AOA 40 TO 45 KTS AND
PERPENDICULAR TO THE COLD FRONT. SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS COULD FORM
ALONG I80...WHERE COINCIDENTALLY THE WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE.
THIS COULD AID TO INCREASE LLVL SHEAR AND POSE A TORNADO THREAT FROM
SUPERCELLS. NOW... STORMS COULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS BEFORE THEY
REACH THE CWA AROUND 00Z. HIRES GUIDANCE HAS A BOWING FEATURE AT
THIS TIME. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT WE COULD SEE MORE OF WIND THREAT
WITH EMBEDDED TORNADOES ONCE THE STORMS GROW UPSCALE. ISOLATED
STORMS WOULD POSE A HAIL...WIND AND TOR THREAT. CURRENTLY THE SPC
HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY. THE MAIN WHAT IFS TOMORROW
ARE...MOISTURE RETURN...WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS...AND DO WE SEE
SUNLIGHT. IF THESE OCCUR AS FORECAST...SEVERE WEATHER WOULD
DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE. ONCE STORMS AND RAIN EXIT THE AREA...A DRIER
COOLER PATTERN SETS IN.
NW H5 FLOW WILL USHER IN A SERIES OF WAVES AND RAIN CHANCES IN THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S. ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT ...H85 TEMPS NEAR -
4C ARE PROG OVER THE NORTH. IF WINDS CAN SLACKEN...THERE COULD BE A
THREAT FOR FROST. LATE IN THE EXTENDED THE FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL
AND WOULD SUPPORT WARMING TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THIS MORNING WITH BOUTS
OF VFR AT BRL ON SOUTH... WHILE MVFR TO LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS... FOG
AND SHOWERS AT CID ... DBQ AND MLI REST OF THIS AM. ALL SITES
ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER TDY INTO EVE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME... BUT COVERAGE MORE SCATTERED THUS HANDLED WITH VCSH
WORDING AFT 18Z THROUGH 01Z. TONIGHT THE CONCERN SHIFTS TO FOG
POTENTIAL. SOME OF THE RECENT HRRR VIS PLOTS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH
LIFR FOG OVERNIGHT... BUT OTHER MODELS NOT SO. WHILE THE GROUND
IS WET AND SKIES LIKELY PARTIALLY CLEARING... THE PRESENCE OF
EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT DRYING MAKE FOR UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW
LOW VISIBILITIES WILL GO. FOR NOW FEEL MOST COMFORTABLE WITH
ADVERTISING IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
RADAR ESTIMATES 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST 24
HRS OVER THE ENGLISH RIVER BASIN WITH THE HEAVIEST FALLING
OVER THE HEADWATERS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
THE ENGLISH RIVER... WITH KALONA ABOVE ACTION STAGE AND FAST
APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE AND LIKELY TO CREST JUST ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE... THE WAPSIPINICON RIVER IS SHOWN
TO CLIMB ABOVE ACTION STAGE WEDNESDAY AM DUE TO FORECASTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH... WHICH LOOKS TO BE A BIT HIGH
BASED ON TRENDS AND SO LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON REACHING ACTION
STAGE. OTHERWISE... SEVERAL OTHER SITES MAINLY OVER EASTERN IA ARE
SEEING MODEST WITHIN BANK RISES. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
TODAY WITH THE HEAVIEST OCCURRING MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF IL THIS
AM... BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH ARCING SCATTERED CONVECTION LIFTING
THROUGH NORTHERN MO FOR POTENTIAL OF IMPACTING ENGLISH BASIN AND
LEADING TO FURTHER RISES. OTHERWISE... DONT FORESEE ANY OTHER HYDRO
CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS. NEXT ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED WED PM AND EVE
WILL ADD ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1 INCH IN MANY LOCATIONS... AND MAY RESULT
IN RENEWED RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH
THE ENGLISH RIVER BASIN BEING MOST SUSCEPTIBLE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...MCCLURE
HYDROLOGY...MCCLURE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
646 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS PRODUCED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN OF
1 TO 3 INCHES... WITH THE HEAVIEST OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
IA WHICH WAS LEADING TO FLOODING ON THE ENGLISH RIVER. RADAR
SHOWS ANOTHER RAMPING UP OF COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
FROM NORTHERN MO THROUGH WEST CENTRAL IL LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES LATER TDY WILL SEE PERIOD
OF DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY AM. THEN
RENEWED CONVECTION EXPECTED WEDNESDAY PM/EVE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT STORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SEVERE RISK IS NOT ZERO
LATER TODAY BUT LIMITED AND PERHAPS SIMILAR TO THAT OF YSTDY TO
A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO GIVEN WEAK SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT OVER
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHWEST IL AND SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH CAPES 250-500 J/KG FOR SHALLOW CIRCULATIONS
POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE MODULATED BY THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH
COOLEST READINGS LIKELY NORTH WHERE STAYED AT OR BELOW COOLEST
GUIDANCE WITH LOWER 60S... WHILE WARMEST FAR SOUTH (LOWER TO FEW
MID 70S) WHERE BEST CHC FOR FEW BREAKS IN CLOUDS.
TONIGHT... ANY PRECIP TO FOCUS MORE OVER IL COUNTIES EARLY THIS
EVENING WHILE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. EVENTUALLY WILL SEE
A DRY PERIOD OVER THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH INCOMING SUBSIDENCE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE
PASSING TROUGH. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH WET GROUND... BUT TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH DRIER E/NE FLOW TO MENTION ATTIM. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM AND THEN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT USHERS IN A COUPLE OF WAVES AND COOL...BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND. A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS SHAPING
UP FROM WEDNESDAY AND A POTENTIAL FROST HEADLINE FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY...WITH DIGGING SHRTWV TO OUR WEST...THINK THE POPS ON
THURSDAY AM ARE TOO FAST. WEAK H85 MOISTURE CONV IS THE ONLY REAL
LARGE SCALE FORCING TO MOVE INTO THE SE AROUND 18Z. HAVE GONE WITH
SCHC POPS ACROSS A SMALL AREA. NOW IF THERE IS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
TONIGHT THAT SPILLS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN THIS WHOLE
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED. AT THIS TIME...H85 JET AND
OTHER NOCTURNAL STORM PARAMETERS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS. LETS DIVE
INTO WHAT IS MOST LIKELY.
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO W IA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. WITH WEAK
H5 RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA...SUNLIGHT WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT ACROSS
THE AREA. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S. THERE ARE SOME
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AFTER DRYING EAST WINDS
TODAY. IF MOISTURE RETURN CAN BE REALIZED AND THE SUN COMES
OUT...THE MEAN SBCAPE SOUTH OF I80 COULD BE CLOSE 2000 J/KG. WITH
THE EJECTING WAVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AOA 40 TO 45 KTS AND
PERPENDICULAR TO THE COLD FRONT. SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS COULD FORM
ALONG I80...WHERE COINCIDENTALLY THE WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE.
THIS COULD AID TO INCREASE LLVL SHEAR AND POSE A TORNADO THREAT FROM
SUPERCELLS. NOW... STORMS COULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS BEFORE THEY
REACH THE CWA AROUND 00Z. HIRES GUIDANCE HAS A BOWING FEATURE AT
THIS TIME. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT WE COULD SEE MORE OF WIND THREAT
WITH EMBEDDED TORNADOES ONCE THE STORMS GROW UPSCALE. ISOLATED
STORMS WOULD POSE A HAIL...WIND AND TOR THREAT. CURRENTLY THE SPC
HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY. THE MAIN WHAT IFS TOMORROW
ARE...MOISTURE RETURN...WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS...AND DO WE SEE
SUNLIGHT. IF THESE OCCUR AS FORECAST...SEVERE WEATHER WOULD
DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE. ONCE STORMS AND RAIN EXIT THE AREA...A DRIER
COOLER PATTERN SETS IN.
NW H5 FLOW WILL USHER IN A SERIES OF WAVES AND RAIN CHANCES IN THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S. ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT ...H85 TEMPS NEAR -
4C ARE PROG OVER THE NORTH. IF WINDS CAN SLACKEN...THERE COULD BE A
THREAT FOR FROST. LATE IN THE EXTENDED THE FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL
AND WOULD SUPPORT WARMING TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THIS MORNING WITH BOUTS
OF VFR AT BRL ON SOUTH... WHILE MVFR TO LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS... FOG
AND SHOWERS AT CID ... DBQ AND MLI REST OF THIS AM. ALL SITES
ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER TDY INTO EVE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME... BUT COVERAGE MORE SCATTERED THUS HANDLED WITH VCSH
WORDING AFT 18Z THROUGH 01Z. TONIGHT THE CONCERN SHIFTS TO FOG
POTENTIAL. SOME OF THE RECENT HRRR VIS PLOTS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH
LIFR FOG OVERNIGHT... BUT OTHER MODELS NOT SO. WHILE THE GROUND
IS WET AND SKIES LIKELY PARTIALLY CLEARING... THE PRESENCE OF
EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT DRYING MAKE FOR UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW
LOW VISIBILITIES WILL GO. FOR NOW FEEL MOST COMFORTABLE WITH
ADVERTISING IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
RADAR ESTIMATES 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST 24
HRS OVER THE ENGLISH RIVER BASIN WITH THE HEAVIEST FALLING
OVER THE HEADWATERS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
THE ENGLISH RIVER... WITH KALONA ABOVE ACTION STAGE AND FAST
APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE AND LIKELY TO CREST JUST ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE... THE WAPSIPINICON RIVER IS SHOWN
TO CLIMB ABOVE ACTION STAGE WEDNESDAY AM DUE TO FORECASTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH... WHICH LOOKS TO BE A BIT HIGH
BASED ON TRENDS AND SO LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON REACHING ACTION
STAGE. OTHERWISE... SEVERAL OTHER SITES MAINLY OVER EASTERN IA ARE
SEEING MODEST WITHIN BANK RISES. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
TODAY WITH THE HEAVIEST OCCURRING MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF IL THIS
AM... BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH ARCING SCATTERED CONVECTION LIFTING
THROUGH NORTHERN MO FOR POTENTIAL OF IMPACTING ENGLISH BASIN AND
LEADING TO FURTHER RISES. OTHERWISE... DONT FORESEE ANY OTHER HYDRO
CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS. NEXT ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED WED PM AND EVE
WILL ADD ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1 INCH IN MANY LOCATIONS... AND MAY RESULT
IN RENEWED RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH
THE ENGLISH RIVER BASIN BEING MOST SUSCEPTIBLE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...MCCLURE
HYDROLOGY...MCCLURE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1139 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
A LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA AT THE TIME OF
THE UPDATE...THOUGH ARE SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DIMINISHMENT UNDER
GENERALLY SE DOWNSLOPING FLOW. EXPECT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CLEARING AND WARMING
TAKES HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS NOW
DEVELOPED OVER PADUCAH/S AREA...AND IS TRACKING ENE. BASED ON THE
LATEST ANALYSIS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE HI-RES ARW HAS THE BEST
INITIALIZATION...SHOWING THIS MCS STARTING TO COLD POOL AS IT
REACHES CENTRAL KY AND THEN DIVING SOUTHWARD...WHILE SOME CELLS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK INTO EASTERN KY
GENERALLY BETWEEN 21 AND 0Z THIS EVENING.
LATEST GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MARGINAL CAPE AND
HELICITIES...BUT IS CONTINUING TO POINT AT DECENT LLVL WIND
SHEAR...WITH THE BULK OF THE SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 4KM. IF THIS
HOLDS TRUE...EXPECTING ANY OF THE DISCRETE/ISOLATED CELLS THAT
MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KY TO TAKE ON SOME BOWING
CHARACTERISTICS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THEREFORE BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. UPDRAFT POTENTIAL MAY SUPPORT SOME SMALL TO MAYBE
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...BUT OTHERWISE DOES NOT LOOK WORRISOME. AND
WHILE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH TRAINING OF THE STORMS WHICH WOULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING THREATS.
UNFORTUNATELY...JUST BECAUSE THE ARW IS INITIALIZING THE
BEST...DOES NOT MEAN THAT THIS IS HOW THE STORM THREAT WILL PLAY
OUT TONIGHT. AND JUST RELYING ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS COULD MISS
SOME OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS YET UNSEEN. EVEN THE HI RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE VARIANCE IN POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS IT NEARS THE REGION WITH UPDATES TO BE MADE
TO THE POPS AND WEATHER AS NECESSARY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT...EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN
PRECIP. THOUGH...DECIDED NOT TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE POPS AND
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. ALSO
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REFRESH HOURLY GRIDS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL KY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
CONCERNING SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...WARM AIR AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS COUPLED WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT
WILL YIELD SOME INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION. SHEAR IS MUCH MORE
IMPRESSIVE WITH ROUGHLY 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
THIS HAD PROMPTED SPC TO PUT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
A SLIGHT RISK. GIVEN THAT BOTH THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAX OUT
OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z...MIGHT LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
OF THE STORMS AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY EAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA
GIVEN LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN
BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS LOWER BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING TEMPORARY TAKES
HOLD. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE IN TOWARDS
DAWN...HELPING TO RE-CHARGE A WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN TAKE AIM AT EASTERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY PRECIPITATION AREA-
WIDE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
DEPENDING ON THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE A BRIEF DRY SPELL ENSUES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
DEEPER TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPIRALING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
EVENTUALLY SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS DIFFERING IN THE POSITION AND SMALLER SCALE FORCING
DETAILS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN SHOWERS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...COMPLETE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANY SITE THAT EXPERIENCES A THUNDERSTORM MAY SEE BRIEF IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCES OF THIS REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION
IN ANY TAF. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AS
SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR UNDERNEATH ANY
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WHERE GUSTS MAY BE NOTABLY GREATER. RAIN
SHOULD TAPER OFF JUST PRIOR TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JVM/GUSEMAN
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
922 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 918 AM EDT Tue May 10 2016
The line of showers and storms moving across the region this morning
will continue to push into east central KY over the next couple of
hours. Behind this satellite shows there should be at least partial
clearing ahead of the next round of storms. An area of storms moving
into west central KY this morning could affect southern IN and parts
of north central KY this afternoon. In addition, other cells are
expected to develop as instability increases and an upper level
trough swings through. SPC has upgraded much of the area to an
Enhanced risk this afternoon. The main threat still looks to be wind
damage with an isolated tornado not out of the question. The going
forecast is in pretty good shape, so just made some minor
adjustments to pops today.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 10 2016
...Active Period of Weather Through Mid Week...
...Several Chances for Strong to Severe Storms...
Today the upper pattern will feature SW flow ahead of a shortwave
trough rotating from the mid Mississippi River Valley up into the
Great Lakes. Ahead of this trough, a couple of ejecting pieces of
energy will rotate through our area, bringing rounds of showers and
storms.
This Morning...
A weakening, but widespread cluster of showers will push through our
CWA in the pre-dawn hours with periods of moderate to heavy rain and
a few lightning strikes. With a stable layer near the surface,
expect any wind gusts would be limited to less than 35 mph. Best
coverage will be west of I-65 between 4 and 8 AM EDT, along I-65
between 8 and 10 AM EDT, and east of I-65 between 10 AM and 1 PM
EDT. Most spots should see between a tenth and a quarter of an inch
through the morning, with a few locally higher amounts.
This Afternoon and Evening through Tonight...
As we move into the afternoon, stronger forcing will again arrive
ahead of the next piece of energy rotating through the parent
trough. As this occurs, low level winds will back along with overall
shear profile increasing in magnitude. Organized convection
including the potential for some supercells would be possible given
the setup. The conditional piece to the severe puzzle will be
whether we can destabilize after morning convection. If so, a
moderately unstable environment will develop for afternoon and
evening storms. Given the potential for backed surface winds and
differential heating/residual boundaries left over, agree with the
5% tornado threat indicated by SPC. Additional concerns will be
isolated damaging winds, large hail and lightning.
With a prolonged period of forcing in the SW flow aloft, showers and
storms could last well into the evening. Will continue with POPs in
the 70-80 percent range for later today into this evening. Expect
highs in the mid and upper 70s, but highly dependent on cloud cover.
Lows tonight should range in the low to mid 60s.
Wednesday - Wednesday Night...
Flow will be more zonal on Wednesday with a mainly dry period in the
morning. However, by afternoon focus along and south of a weakly
defined warm front across our region should allow for scattered
showers and storms. Data suggests a strongly unstable airmass on the
south side of the boundary as temps warm into the low 80s coupled
with Tds in the upper 60s. The overall shear profile will be less so
think t-storm mode would be more of pulse and multicell mode with an
isolated large hail and damaging wind threat. Excessive lightning
and very heavy rainfall would also be notable in this environment.
By Wednesday night shortwave ridging may briefly take over the
region, however models disagree on the timing so will leave
scattered mention in line with previous forecast. Wednesday night
lows should be in the mid 60s.
Thursday - Thursday Night...
An expansive upper trough slides out of the Plains toward our region
during this time, with a large area of ascent ahead of it. The
aforementioned frontal boundary lifts north of our region
establishing a warm sector. The increasing shear profile ahead of
the trough combined with a gradually destabilizing atmosphere should
lead to another severe threat for the Thursday afternoon and evening
time frame. Will be general with this for now, but wind and hail
would likely be the main threats. With several days of storms, hydro
concerns may become more of a concern by this time as well.
.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 10 2016
...Dry Friday and Friday evening...
...Deep upper trough over the weekend...
...More unsettled weather next week...
Friday and Friday evening...
Well...Drier and cooler air will push into the region for Friday
resulting in a quiet weather day. Transitory Surface High will push
thru bringing NWLY winds. Highs should warm into the lower-mid 70s
with overnight lows cooling into the lower 50s. Dew Points will drop
into the upper 40s. Its the pick day of the week!
Friday Night and Saturday Night...
This quiet/dry weather will be short lived as a fast moving mid-
level wave and cold front push through the region late Friday night
and early Saturday morning. Very strong mid and upper level jet
sliding down from Dakotas will pivot over the Ohio Valley and bring
another round of showers to the region. Strong CAA present with low
level thicknesses dropping significantly and coupled with the light
rain will make for a dreary and very unseasonably cool Saturday.
Highs Saturday will likely range from the low-mid 60s in the north
with mid-upper 60s across the south. Right now we have 65 at SDF
and 64 at LEX, but would not be surprised if temps barely crawl
above 60 north of I 64 Saturday with stout CAA.
Saturday night is dry with the amount of radiational cooling
predicated on cloud over from stalled out frontal boundary, but the
NE CWA will drop down to the lower 40s and perhaps even a 39 in a
cold valley near Cynthiana or Blue Lick Springs, KY.
Sunday into Tue...
This front will slow and stall over ATL-BHM-LIT and serve as a focus
for more convective development late Sunday and into Monday. I
delayed the pops on Sunday into two, 6 hour groups with low pops
Sunday morning and increasing as day progresses along. Kept the
precip west of I 65 Sunday morning and south of the BG parkway.
Frontal boundary is stalled out in the TN Valley causing more storms
into Tue.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Tue May 10 2016
Well...storms this morning at BWG and SDF and close to LEX then a
break, then new storms developing this afternoon and evening.
Low level jet fueling storms across Wrn KY and activity has been
increasing with 50 kt wind at 3k helping fuel this activity. This
activity began in Oklahoma and has been moving east all night long.
The HRR takes this activity through SDF and BWG and tries to split
the line into 2 pieces, splitting somewhere near LEX, but will keep
mvfr storms in the TAF by mid morning.
SSW winds will pick up to around 12 kt with plenty of gusts near 20.
Expect ceilings to lift later in the afternoon, with the afternoon
and evening heavily relying on destabilization. NAM and high
resolution models have been developing storms with instability
increasing with some breaks in the clouds. The HRR takes the current
storms in the Ozarks near Rolla, MO and tries to push them across
Srn IN and develop this into more robust storms this afternoon.
The main threat with storms will be with strong downbursts and
lightning strikes after 18z. Soundings support damaging winds with
DCAPE ramping up and steepening llvl and mid level lapse rates.
With so many storms in the TAF period lots of turbulence around all
sites during this TAF cycle and quite honestly for the next 48=72
hours with a very unsettled pattern in SW flow aloft.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........EER
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......JDG
Aviation.......JDG
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
727 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 718 AM CDT Tue May 10 2016
For aviation section only.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 412 am CDT Tue May 10 2016
Quite convoluted series of MCS (Mesoscale Convective Systems)
moving through the WFO PAH forecast area during the next 72 hours.
Although a decent low level jet exists across the eastern Purchase
area of West Kentucky at this time, the boundary layer has been
stabilized from previous convection, disconnecting any downward
flux of strong winds, but support effective rainfall rates with
the elevated convection. At this time, will hold off any
consideration of a flash flood watch, but it may need to be
considered for parts of Southeast Missouri...extreme Southern
Illinois and the northern Pennyrile later today, should the next
MCS travel eastward slower than expected.
The MCS evolving over Southwest Missouri is forecast by the NAM-
WRF ARW, as well as the GFS and ECMWF guidance to grow-up scale
and move eastward later toward sunrise, filling the extreme
western areas of Southeast Missouri and extending east into
Southern Illinois between 7 am and 1 pm today. The HRRR model
families are seeming to initialize this system too far north,
keying in on the forcing and warm air advection over eastern
Illinois, south through the Kentucky Pennyrile. It appears that
another warm frontal zone is trying to set up behind the
convective activity currently sprawled the WFO PAH forecast area.
This gives a little more confidence and credence to renewed
convection this morning over Southeast Missouri. This also may
delay and renewed severe potential until this afternoon over parts
of Southwest Indiana, the northern Pennyrile, and extreme
Southeast Illinois, and the adjacent counties of the Purchase Area
of West Kentucky. By later tonight, the more persistent convection
should remain in the eastern Pennyrile and Southwest Indiana
counties.
It looks like severe potential will diminish on Wednesday and the
next shortwave of energy move from Upper Midwest into the Central
Plains and approaches ridging aloft. This will also reduce the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the day. The ridging
aloft will be dampened Late Wednesday night as an approaching cold
front and renewed warm front generation place the WFO PAH forecast
area in a very unstable warm sector. It is likely that this will
afford increased severe potential for the day 2 severe outlook
area. Thursday afternoon will likely see another round of severe
storms as the cold front finally, but slowly works through the
area with channel vorticity along and ahead of the main trough
axis. This axis should sweep through the area Thursday night
drying out the WFO PAH forecast area for the beginning of the
extended forecast period.
With the clouds, rain, and nearby mesoscale and convective
boundaries, went with a cooler and smaller diurnal range of
temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 412 am CDT Tue May 10 2016
The period will begin drier and cooler as a bubble high pressure
system moves southeast across the area on Friday. However,
another cold front will sweep quickly across the region Friday
night. This front is expected to be weakening as it approaches,
and right now the main chcs for precip will be north of the Ohio
River. Not expecting any big impacts with this front though.
High pressure will then settle back in for the first part of the
weekend . Despite a return to sunshine Saturday, most locations will
should stay in the mid and upper 60s most of the afternoon. For the
latter half of the weekend, a warm frontal zone is progged to set up
south of the PAH forecast area, between high surface pressure to the
north and low surface pressure developing in the southern Plains.
Though the smaller details of the deterministic models are more
murky at this time frame, it appears that shower and tstm chances
will be ramping up once again, esp as we head into the Sunday
night/Monday time frame. Will leave thunder mention out until the
warm front gets closer to the region on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
With the passage of a couple of upper level disturbances, MVFR to
VFR cigs/vsbys and VCSH/VCTS through 13-19Z,then VFR for the rest
of the afternoon/early evening Southerly winds may gust up over 20
KTS today. Will need to monitor for the possibility of patchy
dense fog 05z- 12Z Wed.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...GM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
628 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT...EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN
PRECIP. THOUGH...DECIDED NOT TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE POPS AND
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. ALSO
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REFRESH HOURLY GRIDS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL KY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
CONCERNING SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...WARM AIR AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS COUPLED WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT
WILL YIELD SOME INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION. SHEAR IS MUCH MORE
IMPRESSIVE WITH ROUGHLY 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
THIS HAD PROMPTED SPC TO PUT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
A SLIGHT RISK. GIVEN THAT BOTH THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAX OUT
OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z...MIGHT LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
OF THE STORMS AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY EAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA
GIVEN LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN
BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS LOWER BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING TEMPORARY TAKES
HOLD. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE IN TOWARDS
DAWN...HELPING TO RE-CHARGE A WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN TAKE AIM AT EASTERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY PRECIPITATION AREA-
WIDE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
DEPENDING ON THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE A BRIEF DRY SPELL ENSUES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
DEEPER TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPIRALING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
EVENTUALLY SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS DIFFERING IN THE POSITION AND SMALLER SCALE FORCING
DETAILS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN SHOWERS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...COMPLETE WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SITE THAT EXPERIENCES A THUNDERSTORM MAY SEE
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCES OF THIS REMAIN TOO LOW TO
WARRANT MENTION IN ANY TAF. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR
LESS...EXCEPT FOR UNDERNEATH ANY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WHERE
GUSTS MAY BE NOTABLY GREATER.
&&
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JVM/GUSEMAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
412 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 412 am CDT Tue May 10 2016
Quite convoluted series of MCS (Mesoscale Convective Systems)
moving through the WFO PAH forecast area during the next 72 hours.
Although a decent low level jet exists across the eastern Purchase
area of West Kentucky at this time, the boundary layer has been
stabilized from previous convection, disconnecting any downward
flux of strong winds, but support effective rainfall rates with
the elevated convection. At this time, will hold off any
consideration of a flash flood watch, but it may need to be
considered for parts of Southeast Missouri...extreme Southern
Illinois and the northern Pennyrile later today, should the next
MCS travel eastward slower than expected.
The MCS evolving over Southwest Missouri is forecast by the NAM-
WRF ARW, as well as the GFS and ECMWF guidance to grow-up scale
and move eastward later toward sunrise, filling the extreme
western areas of Southeast Missouri and extending east into
Southern Illinois between 7 am and 1 pm today. The HRRR model
families are seeming to initialize this system too far north,
keying in on the forcing and warm air advection over eastern
Illinois, south through the Kentucky Pennyrile. It appears that
another warm frontal zone is trying to set up behind the
convective activity currently sprawled the WFO PAH forecast area.
This gives a little more confidence and credence to renewed
convection this morning over Southeast Missouri. This also may
delay and renewed severe potential until this afternoon over parts
of Southwest Indiana, the northern Pennyrile, and extreme
Southeast Illinois, and the adjacent counties of the Purchase Area
of West Kentucky. By later tonight, the more persistent convection
should remain in the eastern Pennyrile and Southwest Indiana
counties.
It looks like severe potential will diminish on Wednesday and the
next shortwave of energy move from Upper Midwest into the Central
Plains and approaches ridging aloft. This will also reduce the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the day. The ridging
aloft will be dampened Late Wednesday night as an approaching cold
front and renewed warm front generation place the WFO PAH forecast
area in a very unstable warm sector. It is likely that this will
afford increased severe potential for the day 2 severe outlook
area. Thursday afternoon will likely see another round of severe
storms as the cold front finally, but slowly works through the
area with channel vorticity along and ahead of the main trough
axis. This axis should sweep through the area Thursday night
drying out the WFO PAH forecast area for the beginning of the
extended forecast period.
With the clouds, rain, and nearby mesoscale and convective
boundaries, went with a cooler and smaller diurnal range of
temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 412 am CDT Tue May 10 2016
The period will begin drier and cooler as a bubble high pressure
system moves southeast across the area on Friday. However,
another cold front will sweep quickly across the region Friday
night. This front is expected to be weakening as it approaches,
and right now the main chcs for precip will be north of the Ohio
River. Not expecting any big impacts with this front though.
High pressure will then settle back in for the first part of the
weekend . Despite a return to sunshine Saturday, most locations will
should stay in the mid and upper 60s most of the afternoon. For the
latter half of the weekend, a warm frontal zone is progged to set up
south of the PAH forecast area, between high surface pressure to the
north and low surface pressure developing in the southern Plains.
Though the smaller details of the deterministic models are more
murky at this time frame, it appears that shower and tstm chances
will be ramping up once again, esp as we head into the Sunday
night/Monday time frame. Will leave thunder mention out until the
warm front gets closer to the region on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
With the passage of a couple of upper level disturbances, MVFR
cigs/vsbys with VCTS/TSRA early, VFR cigs/vsbys and VCSH/VCTS
through the middle of the period, then VFR for the last 4-6 hours.
Winds generally out of the south to south southwest at 10-15 knots
with gusts up to 20 knots.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
736 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICAED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NW
ONTARIO THROUGH MICHIGAN BETWEEN A A TROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAIN INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA. AT THE
SFC...ESE GRADIENT FLOW OVER UPPER MI WAS INCREASING BETWEEN A RIDGE
FROM NE QUEBEC AND JAMES BAY AND LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS. IR LOOP
SHOWED BANDS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI WHILE THICKER CLOUDS
WITH PCPN WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH FROM SE MN INTO SRN WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS CENTER ON FIRE WEATHER RISKS TODAY.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BLOCKING RIDGE THROUGH THE REGION
AND VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL SLOW THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF
PCPN FROM ERN MN THROUGH SRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INTO NRN MO AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING
TOWARD NRN IL. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY AFFECT THE FAR SOUTH
NEAR MNM THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 5C TO 7C RANGE...EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND
MIXING THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND WITH LOWER READINGS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES DOWNWIND FROM
THE SE FLOW. THE MIXING SHOULD ALSO DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER
20S RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES FROM 20 TO 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
FCST 925 MB WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WILL ALSO SUPPORT GUSTS AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 25 MPH. ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE
THICKNESS OF THE HIGH CLOUDS AND THE IMPACT ON TEMPS/MIXING...FIRE
WEATHER PARAMETERS WERE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CRITICAL VALUES OVER INLAND
LOCATIONS TO UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BAND OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST...THE FORCING WEAKENS ENOUGH AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE
RIDGE SE THAT LITTLE IF ANY PCPN WILL MOVE INTO UPPER MI. ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
RIDGE ALOFT GIVES WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND INCREASED TROUGHING THU
INTO FRI. TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING THE DRY WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK SLIDES OVER
QUEBEC ON WED WITH RIDGE STILL LINGERING BACK OVER UPR MICHIGAN. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER DAKOTAS SLOWLY MOVES TO NORTHERN MN BY WED
EVENING. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER ON WED. NOT MUCH RAIN AS LOW-LEVELS STAY DRY WITH SFC
RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE AREA. COULD BE SPRINKLES OUT OF MID CLOUD
DECK. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...EXPECT RH VALUES
MUCH HIGHER THAN EARLY THIS WEEK. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE
OVER FAR EAST CWA WHERE SKIES MAY STAY MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY CLOSER
TO SFC RIDGE. WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 15 MPH SO FIRE WX
ISSUES SHOULD NOT BE AS ELEVATED AS THEY ARE TODAY.
WED NIGHT INTO THU WE WILL SEE IF WE CAN GET SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UNFORTUNATELY...NOT SOLD ON THIS IDEA YET.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIABILITY. OVERALL IDEA REMAINS IN PLACE.
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH HITS WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT AND DEFLECTS ACROSS
MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN BASE OF
TROUGH ALONG WITH SFC LOW LIFTS TOWARD UPR MICHIGAN LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU MORNING. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REVOLVE AROUND EASTERN EXTENT
OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN AND HOW MUCH ADDITONAL RAIN
WILL OCCUR FARTHER EAST ON NOSE OF H25 JET STREAK AND H85 THETA-E
ADVECTION. LIKELY POPS REMAIN ON TRACK...ITS THE AMOUNTS THAT ARE
MORE IN QUESTION. LEARY THAT THERE IS STILL MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOWN
BOTH AT THE SFC OR ELEVATED. THINK THIS MAY ACT TO KEEP MAJORITY OF
THETA-E ADVECTION PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEN...IF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH ENDS UP MAINLY WEST OF CWA AS
ECMWF SHOWS...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD BE DOWN TO CONVERGENCE ALONG
SFC-H85 FRONT AND MODEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. LACK OF FORCING AWAY FM
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN SUGGESTS QPF
OVER CNTRL AND EAST MAY END UP BLO 0.25 INCH MANY SPOTS. WESTERN CWA
MAY SEE TOWARD 0.50 INCH.
AFTER THE RAIN ON THU MINIMAL FORCING AROUND FOR PRECIP THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF STRONGER UPPER TROUGHING. NEXT SHORTWAVE
COMING IN DURING THE AFTN ON FRI MAY ALLOW FOR SHRA COVERAGE TO RAMP
UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE FRI AFTN INTO FRI
EVENING BRINGS STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. H85
TEMPS DROP TO -8C TO -10C BY 12Z ON SAT. NW WINDS AND LK SUPERIOR
WATER TEMPS +3 TO +5C WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES/LIFT ARE OCCURRING AS
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. MEAN TROUGH PERSISTS THROUGH REST OF THE
WEEKEND. STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH TROUGH IS SHOWING UP
AND WOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW OR JUST SNOW SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING AS H85 TEMPS REMAIN LOWER THAN -5C AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES ARE BLO 1300DAM. ECMWF MOST BULLISH WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS...WOULD RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
SAT NIGHT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST AND CENTRAL CWA. EVEN WITHOUT
ANY SNOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS CHILLY WITH WELL BLO NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SAT ALONG WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS
MODERATE TO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ON SUN AND BACK INTO THE 50S ON
MON AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS START
TO RISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
ALTHOUGH HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTH
INTO UPPER MI...LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. MARGINAL LLWS
EARLY TODAY WILL DISSIPTE BY MID MORNING AS DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS
BUT WILL BRING GUSTY SFC WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAINLY
OVER THE WESTERN LAKE TODAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL
THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER
TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO
LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW
AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ON ITS
SOUTHERN FLANK. A WEAKENING GRADIENT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW NW WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001>015-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
952 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THU...
MORNING UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE FOCUSED FIRST ON RADAR
AND WATER VAPOR TRENDS. BOTH PRODUCTS SHOWED A DRY SLOT MOVING UP
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA RAPIDLY. GFS, NAM, AND RAP PRODUCTS
SEEM TO SYNCED UP VERY WELL TODAY WITH THIS SLOT AND ARE CARRYING
IT NORTH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND
CONTINUING THE RAINFALL TO THE WEST OF IT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MDOT CAMERAS ARE SHOWING THAT FREEZING LEVELS HAVE DROPPED LOW
ENOUGH THAT SNOW HAS EXPANDED BEYOND THE LITTLE ROCKIES TO
SURROUNDING AREAS OF PHILLIPS COUNTY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
GARFIELD COUNTY AS WELL. THE CONVECTIVE/RAIN LOOK OF RADAR
PRODUCTS ALSO SMOOTHS OUT INTO A STRATUS/SNOW EVENT ACROSS THESE
AREAS AS WELL AS PETROLEUM COUNTY AT THIS TIME. HAVE EXPANDED
SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS TO COINCIDE WITH CAMERA
TRENDS. WITH THIS EXPANSION OF SNOW HAVE DECIDED TO PUT A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY OUT FOR THESE 3 COUNTIES.
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST THUNDER LOOKS LIKE IT MAY HAVE A
CHANCE WITH THE LOW CAP CONVECTION IN THE CENTER OF THE LOW/DRY
SLOT BUT SHOULD BE MINIMAL IMPACT.
THE GLASGOW AREAS HAS BEEN THE MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL IMPACT WITH
2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.. WHICH WILL
FORCE A LOOKOUT FOR AREAL FLOODING. THE SURROUNDING AREAS ARE
COMMONLY SEEING TOTALS OF A HALF TO 2 INCHES ALREADY WITH MORE ON
THE WAY. GAH
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT OBSERVATIONS HAVE INCLUDED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...AND THUNDER...WHICH IS WHAT WAS
EXPECTED. THE LEWISTOWN DIVIDE DOT CAM ALSO SHOWED SNOW FALLING
LAST EVENING.
THE DAY BEGINS WITH THE NORTH DAKOTA STORM BEING ABSORBED BY THE
BIGGER STORM MOVING IN FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS HAS CREATED A LARGER
SURFACE LOW AND BROAD LIFT ZONES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE LOW
SWINGS EAST A TROWAL WILL FORM ON THE BACKSIDE AND FOCUS DIRECTLY
OVER THE CWA. BETWEEN ONE TO TWO AND HALF INCHES OF QPF WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA AS THE STORM STALLS UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEING MIXED IN FROM THE NORTH...
WILL MAINTAIN THE SNOW MENTION FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS THE
LITTLE ROCKIES WHERE IT COULD BEGIN TO SEE A HEAVY WET SNOW
FORMING ABOUT 3500 FEET. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF LIQUID TIMES 1:8 TO 1:12
SNOW RATIOS GENERATES 10 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREAS
WHICH SEEMS TO MESH UP WELL WITH THE WPC WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS.
TIMING ON THIS WILL HOLD THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST OTHER
LOCATION SHOULD BE TOTALLY RAIN FOR THE EVENT.
OF SIGNIFICANCE TODAY WILL BE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW STACKING UP
WITH THE CLOSED SURFACE LOW. WINDS WILL BE REINFORCED AND QUITE
STRONG TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THE NPW FOR
FORT PECK LAKE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.
SPC MAINTAINS A NARROW STRIP OF GENERAL CONVECTION ALONG OUR
EASTERN ZONES TODAY. USING THE POT GRIDS...ADDED THUNDER TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GRIDS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WINDING DOWN DAY FOR THE SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS
INTO MANITOBA. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST BEGINNING IN THE
MORNING...MOSTLY ENDING BEFORE SUNSET.
THURSDAY WILL BEGIN DRY...BUT A COLD FRONT...SETTING UP BY A
SHORT-WAVE IN CANADA...WILL SEE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE
DISTURBANCE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COLDEST TODAY...AT AROUND 15-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS TO TREND WARMER TO AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SCT
.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH TUE...
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUT ITS PROGRESSION WILL
BE SLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MONTANA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST A LITTLE RAINFALL FROM THIS FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND...BUT SO
FAR IT LOOKS AS IF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO OUR
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WITH A RIDGE SET UP TO OUR WEST AND A RATHER DEEP LOW OVER
ONTARIO.
HICKFORD
&&
.AVIATION...
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM...STALLED OVER EASTERN MONTANA...WILL ALLOW
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES TODAY WITH
OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN AS THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD LINGERS OVER EASTERN
MONTANA. EXPECT RAIN TO FINALLY CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT VARYING WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS.
BMICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...GARFIELD...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PETROLEUM.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1040 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO NORTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... THEN STALL OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM TUESDAY...
12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN AND A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NJ. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS MOVED TO THE VA TIDEWATER REGION...WITH A
PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER NC AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING THROUGH THE MO VALLEY. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMATTERING
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA...SO THERE SO
SHOULD BE GOOD HEATING POTENTIAL...WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S GIVEN DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO AROUND H85..PER
NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. THE RAP SHOWS AN AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY
(WHICH ALREADY EXISTS IN THE FORM OF 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE)
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SLOWLY MIXES BACK TO THE NORTH. HI-RES
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS SOME CONVECTION WILL DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE AXIS AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE (GIVEN NO OTHER LARGER SCALE LIFT). DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS 30-35KT...ENHANCED NEAR THE FRONT...SO THE
CAPER/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE COULD SUPPORT A STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE
STORM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCE IS LOW AND COVERAGE WOULD BE
VERY ISOLATED WITHOUT BETTER FORCING. A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY
LINGER NEAR THE VA BORDER OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 259 AM TUESDAY...
THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY INTO VA MAY STILL AFFECT NORTHERN AREAS EARLY IN THE
DAY. OTHERWISE... THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL
NC DURING PEAK HEATING WHICH WOULD AID IN SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL CARRY WITH 50-60
POP WITH 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH QPF MOST AREAS... WITH LOCALLY 1 INCH
TOTALS. HIGHS IN THE 80S (NEAR 90 SOUTH).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD WILL BE A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT`S PROGGED TO CROSS THE MIDWEST THU AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI. SHORT WAVE RIDGING JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF REDUCTION IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME
THU...BUT LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE THU NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
CROSSES THE TN VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME FRI...A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS THE ASSOC TROUGH AXIS AND
SFC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE BULK SHEAR IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE ON FRI...THE BEST INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION
POTENTIAL...SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY EAST OF THE US-1 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL THU AND FRI IN THE
PREFRONTAL AIRMASS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER WITH A DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS MOVING INTO OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE LATE-WEEK TROUGH.
IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE QUICK ON THE HEELS OF
FRIDAY`S TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
LATE SAT...BUT LOOKS LIKE THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR WEATHER. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO BE NEAR- TO PERHAPS A
FEW DEG BELOW NORMAL.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN ELONGATED CLOSED MID/UPR LOW WILL TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...THUS PROMOTING A
FLATTENED SW FLOW OVER OUR REGION. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE BEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SFC BOUNDARY FEATURES TO OUR NORTH FOR AT
LEAST MONDAY. ANY SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THIS PATTERN WOULD MEAN A MUCH
WETTER FORECAST FOR OUR AREA. OVERALL...FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
THIS PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM TUESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THOUGH THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CHANCE WILL INCREASE TO
LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/22
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...BADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
844 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 13 UTC. THE CONDITIONAL MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS UNCHANGED AND DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY/FAR
THE DRY SLOT IS ABLE TO PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA...AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND UNTIL
15 UTC GIVEN ADVECTION/UPSLOPE-AIDED FOG THAT IS BEING REPORTED BY
SEVERAL ASOS/AWOS SITES FROM HETTINGER UP TO WILLISTON AND MINOT.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO TODAY/S FORECAST.
THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE STORMS AND A VERY CONDITIONAL
RISK OF WEAK TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY.
THE BACKGROUND PATTERN WITH A 500-MB LOW IN SOUTHEAST MT AND A
SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST MT WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH
EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL ND IS A RATHER
CLOSE FIT TO THE COLD CORE TORNADO COMPOSITE CHART. HOWEVER...IT
IS NOT CLEAR THAT INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ACTUAL TORNADO POTENTIAL. RECENT RAP MODEL RUNS
HAVE SHOWN 0-3-KM SBCAPE PEAKING AT ABOUT 150 J/KG AND 0-1 KM VGP
VALUES ONLY AROUND 0.1. RESEARCH SUGGESTS MEDIAN VALUES OF 0-3-KM
SBCAPE OF 210 J/KG AND 0-1-KM VGP VALUES OF 0.4 FOR COLD CORE
TORNADO EVENTS...WHICH SUGGESTS TODAY/S ENVIRONMENT COULD END UP
FALLING SHORT OF THE NEEDED LOW-LEVEL CAPE/VORTICITY SETTING THAT
IS NEEDED FOR THESE TYPE OF EVENTS. THE 06 UTC NAM REMAINS MORE
ROBUST WITH BOTH 0-3-KM SBCAPE AND 0-1-KM VGP THAN THE REMAINDER
OF GUIDANCE...BUT IT HAS LOWERED VALUES A BIT WHEN COMPARED TO ITS
00 UTC RUN...AND IT MAY BE OVERDOING AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SOMEWHAT
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM IN NEB AND SD AT 1145 UTC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND STRENGTH OF WINDS.
CURRENTLY...THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS HAD MERGED INTO ONE - CENTERED
OVER MONTANA/WYOMING. ONE OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WAS ALONG THE CENTRAL BORDER OF ND/SD AND MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD...ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD IN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA.
FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTENSIFYING THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN MONTANA TODAY AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED SURFACE LOW BENEATH
IT. AS THE STACKED SYSTEM INTENSIFIES IT LIFTS NORTHWARD...AND A DRY
SLOT DEVELOPS THAT PUNCHES INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 60 KNOTS. A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING/ARCING SOUTHEASTWARD LIFTS NORTHWARD SUPPORTED BY
THE DRY SLOT. THE MODELS INDICATE A THINK BAND OF ELEVATED CAPE
ALONG THE ARC OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THE BAND OF ELEVATED CAPE IS
COINCIDENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER BULK SHEAR
VALUES...GIVING CONFIDENCE THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE TIMING OF THIS WOULD BE MAINLY
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND BE MAINLY IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS.
REGARDING WINDS TODAY...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
LIFTING LOW LEVEL TROUGH AT 15 TO 25 MPH. BEHIND THE TROUGH AND
COINCIDENT WITH THE DRY SLOT IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP.
TONIGHT THE CENTER OF THE STACKED SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
WEST WINDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LATER SHIFTS
MAY ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR STRONG WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
POTENTIAL FROST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND IS THE MAIN MESSAGE IN THE LONG TERM.
ON THE LARGE SCALE...MEAN NORTHWEST 500-MB FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RELATIVELY DEEP
HUDSON BAY LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INTRUSIONS
OF COOLER CANADIAN/CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR INTO THE REGION AND THAT
IN TURN FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY
THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND GUIDANCE WE USED TO BUILD
THE FORECAST. THE 00 UTC GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS BASIC THEME DESPITE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTIONS OVER CANADA AND THUS
THE DEPTH AND SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW. FROST
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN ND...AND
WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO MORE OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE WILL LIKELY NEED SEVERAL FROST HEADLINES /ADVISORIES/ BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE 00 UTC GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICTIONS OF SURFACE RIDGING AND STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM
BOTH OF THOSE MODELS...FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING MAY BE THE
CANDIDATE FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING FROST.
IN FACT...THE 00 UTC GFS-BASED MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST ND COULD HAVE A BONAFIDE FREEZE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS DURING THAT TIME FRAME THAT THE GFS MEX
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A LOW OF 28 F AT HETTINGER...AND THE WARMEST
MEMBER OF THE 00 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MOS SUITE IS ONLY 32 F THEN.
OTHERWISE...WE DO HAVE SOME SHOWER CHANCES SHOWN IN THE FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE
OFFERED SOME AGREEMENT ON WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 840 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
WILL THEN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY EVENING. CEILINGS ARE
ALSO FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO THE VFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RETURNING TO THE MVFR RANGE ACROSS
WESTERN ND ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
654 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND UNTIL
15 UTC GIVEN ADVECTION/UPSLOPE-AIDED FOG THAT IS BEING REPORTED BY
SEVERAL ASOS/AWOS SITES FROM HETTINGER UP TO WILLISTON AND MINOT.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO TODAY/S FORECAST.
THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE STORMS AND A VERY CONDITIONAL
RISK OF WEAK TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY.
THE BACKGROUND PATTERN WITH A 500-MB LOW IN SOUTHEAST MT AND A
SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST MT WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH
EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL ND IS A RATHER
CLOSE FIT TO THE COLD CORE TORNADO COMPOSITE CHART. HOWEVER...IT
IS NOT CLEAR THAT INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ACTUAL TORNADO POTENTIAL. RECENT RAP MODEL RUNS
HAVE SHOWN 0-3-KM SBCAPE PEAKING AT ABOUT 150 J/KG AND 0-1 KM VGP
VALUES ONLY AROUND 0.1. RESEARCH SUGGESTS MEDIAN VALUES OF 0-3-KM
SBCAPE OF 210 J/KG AND 0-1-KM VGP VALUES OF 0.4 FOR COLD CORE
TORNADO EVENTS...WHICH SUGGESTS TODAY/S ENVIRONMENT COULD END UP
FALLING SHORT OF THE NEEDED LOW-LEVEL CAPE/VORTICITY SETTING THAT
IS NEEDED FOR THESE TYPE OF EVENTS. THE 06 UTC NAM REMAINS MORE
ROBUST WITH BOTH 0-3-KM SBCAPE AND 0-1-KM VGP THAN THE REMAINDER
OF GUIDANCE...BUT IT HAS LOWERED VALUES A BIT WHEN COMPARED TO ITS
00 UTC RUN...AND IT MAY BE OVERDOING AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SOMEWHAT
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM IN NEB AND SD AT 1145 UTC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND STRENGTH OF WINDS.
CURRENTLY...THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS HAD MERGED INTO ONE - CENTERED
OVER MONTANA/WYOMING. ONE OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WAS ALONG THE CENTRAL BORDER OF ND/SD AND MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD...ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD IN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA.
FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTENSIFYING THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN MONTANA TODAY AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED SURFACE LOW BENEATH
IT. AS THE STACKED SYSTEM INTENSIFIES IT LIFTS NORTHWARD...AND A DRY
SLOT DEVELOPS THAT PUNCHES INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 60 KNOTS. A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING/ARCING SOUTHEASTWARD LIFTS NORTHWARD SUPPORTED BY
THE DRY SLOT. THE MODELS INDICATE A THINK BAND OF ELEVATED CAPE
ALONG THE ARC OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THE BAND OF ELEVATED CAPE IS
COINCIDENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER BULK SHEAR
VALUES...GIVING CONFIDENCE THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE TIMING OF THIS WOULD BE MAINLY
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND BE MAINLY IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS.
REGARDING WINDS TODAY...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
LIFTING LOW LEVEL TROUGH AT 15 TO 25 MPH. BEHIND THE TROUGH AND
COINCIDENT WITH THE DRY SLOT IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP.
TONIGHT THE CENTER OF THE STACKED SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
WEST WINDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LATER SHIFTS
MAY ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR STRONG WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
POTENTIAL FROST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND IS THE MAIN MESSAGE IN THE LONG TERM.
ON THE LARGE SCALE...MEAN NORTHWEST 500-MB FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RELATIVELY DEEP
HUDSON BAY LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INTRUSIONS
OF COOLER CANADIAN/CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR INTO THE REGION AND THAT
IN TURN FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY
THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND GUIDANCE WE USED TO BUILD
THE FORECAST. THE 00 UTC GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS BASIC THEME DESPITE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTIONS OVER CANADA AND THUS
THE DEPTH AND SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW. FROST
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN ND...AND
WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO MORE OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE WILL LIKELY NEED SEVERAL FROST HEADLINES /ADVISORIES/ BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE 00 UTC GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICTIONS OF SURFACE RIDGING AND STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM
BOTH OF THOSE MODELS...FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING MAY BE THE
CANDIDATE FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING FROST.
IN FACT...THE 00 UTC GFS-BASED MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST ND COULD HAVE A BONAFIDE FREEZE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS DURING THAT TIME FRAME THAT THE GFS MEX
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A LOW OF 28 F AT HETTINGER...AND THE WARMEST
MEMBER OF THE 00 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MOS SUITE IS ONLY 32 F THEN.
OTHERWISE...WE DO HAVE SOME SHOWER CHANCES SHOWN IN THE FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE
OFFERED SOME AGREEMENT ON WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
WILL THEN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY EVENING. CEILINGS ARE
ALSO FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO THE VFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RETURNING TO THE MVFR RANGE ACROSS
WESTERN ND ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
549 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE
DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH MISSOURI INTO ARKANSAS WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI DOWN ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS AHEAD OF THIS MAIN
LINE ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. GENERAL
MOVEMENT HAS BEEN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM IOWA DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. SHORT RANGE MODELS WEAKEN ACTIVITY WAS IT WORKS TOWARD
MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THINK CONVECTION DURING
THE DAY TODAY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED WITH NOTHING REALLY TO FOCUS
IT ON WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THE NORTH CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE.
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG. STRONGER AND DEEPER
OMEGA TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE WORKS ACROSS OUR AREA SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS. A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
RAMP UP THURSDAY WITH SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. MID STATE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON FRIDAY AND DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY SO BASICALLY KEPT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY EXCEPT FRIDAY
MORNING ALONG THE PLATEAU WHERE THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY TURN ZONAL WITH WEST TO
EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS TENNESSEE KEEPING AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD OF WEATHER LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. I CAN SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW THAT WILL WORK ACROSS OUR AREA SO KEPT POPS IN FORECAST
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR CHANGE IN TEMPS
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AIRPORTS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE...THEN DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT
CKV/BNA PER HRRR MODEL ALTHOUGH VCSH AT CSV. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AT AIRPORTS ALTHOUGH
VERY UNCERTAIN ON COVERAGE AND TIMING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 20
KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......01/BOYD
AVIATION........55/SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
636 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
IFR CIGS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
SOME MVFR BR. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BUT SHOULD
RAPIDLY IMPROVE AROUND THE 15Z TIME FRAME. THEN VFR WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF KAUS AND PUSH SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. ALSO
INCLUDED VCTS FOR KDRT AS STORMS WEST OF THE TERMINAL MAY MOVE
EAST AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX EAST INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY REGION. ALSO...850 FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH
WILL BRING RICH THETA-E VALUES INTO THE REGION BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE TWO FEATURES IN COMBINATION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE INITIATION OF UPDRAFTS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW CAPPING INITIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TODAY ACCORDING TO THE
SOUNDINGS WILL BE AROUND 89-90 DEGREES AND WE SHOULD BE WARMER
THAN THAT. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE CAP TO BREAK BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND WE SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AROUND 21Z IN THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTION AND DRYLINE COINCIDE. IN ADDITION TO
THIS AREA...SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG CELLS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE MOVING EAST INTO THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL. AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH 4000 J/KG WHICH WILL PROMOTE POTENTIALLY VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP ONCE PARCELS REACH THE LFC. IN
ADDITION...SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT SOME
MESOCYCLONES WHICH COULD HELP PROLONG THE LIFE OF STORMS AND
ENHANCE HAIL PRODUCTION. LCLS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AND THERE COULD
BE A WIND THREAT AS WELL BUT LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ESPECIALLY INITIALLY.
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE FAIRLY STRAIGHT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SPLITTING CELLS. THE BUNKERS RIGHT MOTION VECTOR IS
WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS. IF WE DO GET A SPLITTING
CELL...THERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS
STORM MOTIONS SLOW TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS
PROGGING CONVECTION INITIATION AROUND 21Z IN THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY CONGEALING INTO A LINE AS COLD
POOLS DEVELOP. THIS LINE OF STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE FORECAST EVOLUTION IS
DEPENDENT ON MANY FACTORS COMING TOGETHER AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS
AN EXACT SOLUTION IS LOW. WILL SHOW 30 POPS AFTER 21Z CONTINUING
INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENDING BY 06Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. THE
DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT FARTHER WEST TOMORROW AND MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF WE DO GET STORMS...THERE WOULD BE A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS CAPE VALUES ARE GREATER
THAN 3500 J/KG.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
CWA ON THURSDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG AS CAPE
VALUES REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH...BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY AND WILL KEEP POPS RELATIVELY LOW.
MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS BEYOND SUNDAY BUT AN ACTIVE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 71 88 70 85 / 20 30 20 30 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 71 87 69 85 / 10 20 20 20 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 70 88 70 85 / 10 20 20 20 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 90 69 86 68 83 / 30 30 30 30 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 95 71 92 72 91 / 20 20 20 20 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 70 87 69 83 / 20 30 30 30 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 93 71 90 69 88 / 20 30 20 20 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 70 86 69 85 / 10 20 20 20 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 88 72 88 71 86 / 10 20 20 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 71 87 71 86 / 20 20 20 20 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 92 72 90 71 88 / 20 20 20 20 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
633 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Look for moderately challenging flight conditions during the next
24 hours. Patchy fog this morning, has reduced the visibility at
the Junction terminal to five satute miles; expect this fog to
linger for a couple hours. Thunderstorms may develop today and
tonight...mainly along and southeast of a line from Ozona, to San
Angelo, to Coleman. Large hail and damaging winds are possible
with some thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 432 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
..Possible Thunderstorms Southeast...
Thunderstorms may develop across our southeastern counties today and
tonight. Models continue to indicate the potential for
thunderstorms...mainly along and southeast of a line from Ozona, to
San Angelo, to Coleman. The HRRR begins development across our
Northwest Hill Country counties around 2 pm CDT and then expends the
development area northwest. The Storm prediction Center has much of
this same area designated as either marginal or slight risk areas.
But, models still don`t indicate very good upper support. So, the
main forcing will be thermodynamic. Given low confidence for exactly
where and when any thunderstorms may develop, will continue only
slight chance PoPs for the today and tonight periods.
LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Wednesday afternoon, a dryline is expected to set up along the
western edge of West Central Texas from Iraan to Sterling City to
Sweetwater to Childress. Isolated thunderstorms are possible
along/east of the dryline, but there is a better chance of storms
Wednesday night, as an upper shortwave moves through the Central
Plains and a cold front approaches the Big Country toward morning.
The best potential for storms will be in the Big Country, where
the best dynamics are in place. Day 3 SPC outlook has
marginal/slight risk of storms for the I-20 and northward area.
Still, a storm could become severe anywhere, if it develops, as
the GFS model forecasts SB CAPES of 2000-4000 J/KG along and east
of a Sonora...San Angelo...Abilene...Throckmorton line.
Storm chances continue Thursday as a cold front moves through.
Again a few severe thunderstorms possible, particularly south of
the Big Country where GFS was indicating MUCAPES of 2000 to 3000
J/KG. Day 3 SPC outlook has a marginal risk of severe storms
Thursday for all of West Central Texas.
There is small lull in showers and thunderstorms Friday and
Friday night, before thunderstorms chances return Saturday into
Sunday. There are several shortwaves in zonal flow aloft along
with possible dryline interaction Sunday/Sunday night. Instability
is not a strong (CAPES were in the 1000-1500 J/KG) but can not
rule out a severe storm. While a cold front brings more stable
air Monday night and Tuesday, a few storms could develop, mainly
in eastern sections where more moisture will be available.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 93 67 91 61 / 5 10 20 40
San Angelo 92 66 92 64 / 20 10 20 20
Junction 92 65 89 64 / 20 20 30 20
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
99/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
634 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO VIRGINIA
WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, IT WILL
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT WITH AN ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ON FRIDAY, A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE RADAR DISPLAY IS RATHER `LIT UP` WITH LIGHT PRECIP
ECHOS...BUT LITTLE IS HITTING THE GROUND WITH THE DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE. THESE OCNL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE LESS
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NRN NJ AND NE PA REGIONS. THE HRRR IS
SHOWING A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM
MOVING ACROSS THE DELMARVA AREAS OVERNIGHT. OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING ACTIVITY OVER THESE AREAS TOO...SO WE HAVE
RAISED THE POPS FOR THESE AREAS FOR TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA AND IN THE LOW
50S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE FCST FOR WED CONTINUES TO TREND WORSE FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT AND UPPER SHORT WAVES
WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT ACROSS THE REGION. WE HAVE INCREASED BOTH THE
SKY AMTS AND POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS. MUCH OF THE RAINS WILL
LIKELY BE DURING THE MORNING. THE 12Z NAM IS MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
HOWEVER...LINGERING SHOWERS MUCH OF THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WERE CUT
FOR ALL AREAS. UP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...CLOUD SEE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS UP NORTH COULD
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...BUT WE`LL HAVE TO SETTLE FOR
LOW/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
ONE.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THEN ON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN AGAIN ON LATE SATURDAY WITH SECONDARY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND FINALLY ON TUESDAY DUE TO OVERRUNNING WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT.
BUT AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER FIRST 10
DAYS OF THE MONTH. ANTICIPATED QPF IS AROUND 0.50 INCH OR LESS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THIS
TIME PERIOD AND THEN RUN 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD.
PRIMARY FORECAST INPUT WAS 12Z SUPERBLEND. WPC EXTENDED RANGE
GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR POPS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CLOUDY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA AND A
WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH/WEST WILL KEEP SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT...MORE MOISTURE WILL
POOL ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED. LOWER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE MOSTLY AT KILG/KMIV AND KACY. WE HAVE SOME LOWER
CONDITIONS AT KPHL/KPNE ALSO...BUT CONFID IN THIS IS LOWER THAN
OTHER AREAS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND MUCH OF WED.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY: POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS,
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 15
KNOTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.
SUNDAY: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A CONTINUATION OF RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UNDER THE
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE TONIGHT. THEY MAY TREND MORE ERLY OR SERLY WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TSTM ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS AND DELAWARE
BAY.
OUTLOOK...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
324 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO VIRGINIA
WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, IT WILL
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ON FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE RADAR DISPLAY IS RATHER `LIT UP` WITH LIGHT PRECIP ECHOS...BUT
LITTLE IS HITTING THE GROUND WITH THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. THESE
OCNL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE NRN NJ AND NE PA REGIONS. THE HRRR IS SHOWING A MORE
CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM MOVING ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AREAS EARLY TONIGHT. OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING
ACTIVITY OVER THESE AREAS TOO...SO WE HAVE RAISED THE POPS FOR THESE
AREAS FOR TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE CWA AND IN THE LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE FCST FOR WED CONTINUES TO TREND WORSE FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT AND UPPER SHORT WAVES
WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT ACROSS THE REGION. WE HAVE INCREASED BOTH THE
SKY AMTS AND POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS. MUCH OF THE RAINS WILL
LIKELY BE DURING THE MORNING. THE 12Z NAM IS MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
HOWEVER...LINGERING SHOWERS MUCH OF THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WERE CUT
FOR ALL AREAS. UP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...CLOUD SEE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS UP NORTH COULD
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...BUT WE`LL HAVE TO SETTLE FOR
LOW/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
ONE.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THEN ON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN AGAIN ON LATE SATURDAY WITH SECONDARY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND FINALLY ON TUESDAY DUE TO OVERRUNNING
WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT.
BUT AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER FIRST 10
DAYS OF THE MONTH. ANTICIPATED QPF IS AROUND 0.50 INCH OR LESS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THIS
TIME PERIOD AND THEN RUN 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD.
PRIMARY FORECAST INPUT WAS 12Z SUPERBLEND. WPC EXTENDED RANGE
GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR POPS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CLOUDY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA AND A WARM
FRONT TO THE SOUTH/WEST WILL KEEP SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT...MORE MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG
THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED. A TSTM IS POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT. LOWER
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE MOSTLY AT KILG/KMIV AND KACY. WE HAVE
SOME LOWER CONDITIONS AT KPHL/KPNE ALSO...BUT CONFID IN THIS IS
LOWER THAN OTHER AREAS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND MUCH OF
WED.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY: POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS,
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 15
KNOTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.
SUNDAY: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A CONTINUATION OF RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UNDER THE
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE TONIGHT. THEY MAY TREND MORE ERLY OR SERLY WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TSTM ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS AND DELAWARE
BAY.
OUTLOOK...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...O`HARA
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
244 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...
243 PM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE WARM FRONT LIES ALONG OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF I-80 WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE
LOW 70S SOUTH OF IT. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO PULL NORTH
WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. FINALLY SEEING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATES CAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A BIT LESS CAPE. SHEAR VALUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE VERY
LOW...BUT THINKING A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
GENERAL ROTATION ALOFT. ONLY EXPECTING ONE TO PERHAPS A FEW STORMS
TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. SO
FAR THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED TAME WITH LIMITED VERTICAL GROWTH.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
QUICKLY BECOMES STABLE WITH A DECENT SURFACE INVERSION. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES BAGGY WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS COMBINED WITH RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS FROM THE FRONT AND
RECENT RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG OVERNIGHT. NOT CERTAIN THAT WE
WILL SEE DENSE FOG...BUT AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY. TEMPS DROP INTO
50S THIS EVENING AND THEN HOLD STEADY OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY IS STILL LOOKING WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 SOUTH OF I-80.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 60S ALONG THE LAKE. CLOUD
COVER WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN HOW MUCH AREAS AWAY FROM THE
LAKE WILL WARM. IF ANY LOCATION GETS A BIT MORE SUNSHINE...COULD SEE
TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 80S. THE MAIN FORCING STAYS WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. A STOUT CAP WILL ALSO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
214 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY FRIDAY WHILE TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
ANTICIPATE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO BE DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING A STRONG CAP FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING OF THE LOW
PASSAGE AND THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE...THINK THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS GREATLY LIMITED AND WOULD ANTICIPATE ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE REGION TO BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE AS IT
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE...A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET OUT
AHEAD OF THE LOW TRACK WILL RESULT IN DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA AND AREAS NORTH...ALONG WITH BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT SWINGS AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SWITCH IN WINDS WILL HELP DRIVE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE LOW TO MID
70S THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
60S...AND ONLY MID/UPPER 50S FOR SATURDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
COULD CAUSE SOME LIGHT RAIN...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FOCUSED IN THE
MID LEVELS WITH DRY LOW LEVELS INDICATED IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE QPF. UPPER PATTERN IS
PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. EXPECT PRIMARILY DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH SOME LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES
COULD BRING A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
RAIN IS SHIFTING NORTH AND EXPECTING A FEW HOURS OF DRIZZLE TO
HANG ON BEHIND THE MAIN SHOWERS. MVFR VSBY IS BEING OBSERVED
THROUGH WILL COUNTY AND IS SLOWLY IMPROVING. THEREFORE KEPT MVFR
VSBY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN AND TIED TO THE DRIZZLE. CIGS SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTN. MDW HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF TRYING TO
SCATTER OUT OF THE IFR LAYER...BUT IS STRUGGLING TO DO SO. IFR
CIGS ARE ALSO BEING REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS WILL COUNTY...SO KEPT
A PESSIMISTIC FORECAST GOING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MIXING
GETS GOING AND IFR CIGS SCATTER OUT SOONER THAN FORECAST.
EXPECTING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
TO BE DRY. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND A DECENT SURFACE
INVERSION FORMS. VSBYS WILL FALL BACK TO IFR OR MVFR WITH IFR TO
LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOMORROW WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTN.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CIG AND VSBY TRENDS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING AND VALUES.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
214 PM CDT
A WARM FRONT LIES SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN. WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS POOLING NEAR THE FRONT
HAVE RESULTED IN FOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...THUS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUES FOR THE REST
OF TODAY THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST
BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD RIDGE STRENGTHENS
AND REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...10 PM TUESDAY TO 10
AM WEDNESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 10
AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
220 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
1125 AM CDT
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LIES OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO ABOUT I-80
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SKIES ARE SCATTERING OUT OVER ILX/S CWA THIS
MORNING. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS FEATURES UPWARD OF 1000 J/KG NEAR
PONTIAC. THE VORT MAX THAT WILL HELP FORCE CONVECTION IS OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL. SO BETWEEN THICK CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA AND FORCING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...THINKING STRONGER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL
WELL SOUTH OF OUR WARNING AREA. BACKED OFF ON CHANCES OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. KEPT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIP WILL END QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE FORCING PUSHES
EAST OF THE REGION. THEREFORE...BACKED OFF ON POPS THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
NIGHT.
JEE
&&
.SHORT TERM...
339 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH SHOWER TRENDS THIS
MORNING...RETURNING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG...AND THEN WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING...STEADY STREAM OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS RESULTING IN CONTINUED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIME FRAME. DURING THIS
TIME...MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO OBSERVE ON/OFF PERIODS OF
PRECIP AND WHILE ANY INSTABILITY STILL REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE
CWA...DONT ANTICIPATE ANY THUNDER THIS MORNING FOR ALL AREAS.
SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS SITUATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AT THIS TIME.
GUIDANCE STILL CONSISTENT WITH THIS BOUNDARY PUSHING FURTHER NORTH
BUT WITH BEING MODIFIED DUE TO THE LAKE. BY THE AFTERNOON EXPECT
THIS BOUNDARY TO BE SITUATED THROUGH THE CWA FROM NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS BACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA...WITH AREAS IN FAR
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LIKELY STAYING ON THE COOL SIDE. NOT ONLY WILL
THIS BE A FACTOR WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY...BUT WILL BE KEY WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS EVENINGS UPDATE TO HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH COOL ONSHORE
FLOW PROVIDING DRASTICALLY VARYING CONDITIONS FROM THE LOW 70S
EXPECTED SOUTH OF I80.
AFTER A LIKELY LULL IN PRECIP LATE MORNING/MIDDAY...STILL AM
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA. IN
PARTICULAR...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS OCCURRING
IN THE PRESENCE OF LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY YIELD SURFACE
BASE/ML CAPE AT OR ABOVE 1000J/KG. SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA
SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 19 TO 21Z FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE I80/I88
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL AT THIS TIME FOR
THIS DEVELOPMENT TO BE FURTHER SOUTH. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVELS AND
LOW BULK SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF ANY WIDESPREAD
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN SOUTH OF I80. KEEPING THE AREA MORE BROAD AT
THIS TIME BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE THE DAY SHIFT TO GAIN A BETTER
HANDLE ON PLACEMENT LATER THIS MORNING. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND FORCING...BUT AS SOME WEAK ASCENT
WILL REMAIN PRESENT TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
214 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY FRIDAY WHILE TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
ANTICIPATE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO BE DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING A STRONG CAP FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING OF THE LOW
PASSAGE AND THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE...THINK THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS GREATLY LIMITED AND WOULD ANTICIPATE ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE REGION TO BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE AS IT
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE...A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET OUT
AHEAD OF THE LOW TRACK WILL RESULT IN DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA AND AREAS NORTH...ALONG WITH BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT SWINGS AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SWITCH IN WINDS WILL HELP DRIVE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE LOW TO MID
70S THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
60S...AND ONLY MID/UPPER 50S FOR SATURDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
COULD CAUSE SOME LIGHT RAIN...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FOCUSED IN THE
MID LEVELS WITH DRY LOW LEVELS INDICATED IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE QPF. UPPER PATTERN IS
PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. EXPECT PRIMARILY DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH SOME LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES
COULD BRING A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
RAIN IS SHIFTING NORTH AND EXPECTING A FEW HOURS OF DRIZZLE TO
HANG ON BEHIND THE MAIN SHOWERS. MVFR VSBY IS BEING OBSERVED
THROUGH WILL COUNTY AND IS SLOWLY IMPROVING. THEREFORE KEPT MVFR
VSBY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN AND TIED TO THE DRIZZLE. CIGS SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTN. MDW HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF TRYING TO
SCATTER OUT OF THE IFR LAYER...BUT IS STRUGGLING TO DO SO. IFR
CIGS ARE ALSO BEING REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS WILL COUNTY...SO KEPT
A PESSIMISTIC FORECAST GOING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MIXING
GETS GOING AND IFR CIGS SCATTER OUT SOONER THAN FORECAST.
EXPECTING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
TO BE DRY. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND A DECENT SURFACE
INVERSION FORMS. VSBYS WILL FALL BACK TO IFR OR MVFR WITH IFR TO
LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOMORROW WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTN.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CIG AND VSBY TRENDS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING AND VALUES.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
214 PM CDT
A WARM FRONT LIES SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN. WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS POOLING NEAR THE FRONT
HAVE RESULTED IN FOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...THUS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUES FOR THE REST
OF TODAY THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST
BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD RIDGE STRENGTHENS
AND REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1252 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
1125 AM CDT
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LIES OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO ABOUT I-80
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SKIES ARE SCATTERING OUT OVER ILX/S CWA THIS
MORNING. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS FEATURES UPWARD OF 1000 J/KG NEAR
PONTIAC. THE VORT MAX THAT WILL HELP FORCE CONVECTION IS OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL. SO BETWEEN THICK CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA AND FORCING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...THINKING STRONGER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL
WELL SOUTH OF OUR WARNING AREA. BACKED OFF ON CHANCES OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. KEPT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIP WILL END QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE FORCING PUSHES
EAST OF THE REGION. THEREFORE...BACKED OFF ON POPS THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
NIGHT.
JEE
&&
.SHORT TERM...
339 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH SHOWER TRENDS THIS
MORNING...RETURNING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG...AND THEN WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING...STEADY STREAM OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS RESULTING IN CONTINUED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIME FRAME. DURING THIS
TIME...MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO OBSERVE ON/OFF PERIODS OF
PRECIP AND WHILE ANY INSTABILITY STILL REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE
CWA...DONT ANTICIPATE ANY THUNDER THIS MORNING FOR ALL AREAS.
SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS SITUATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AT THIS TIME.
GUIDANCE STILL CONSISTENT WITH THIS BOUNDARY PUSHING FURTHER NORTH
BUT WITH BEING MODIFIED DUE TO THE LAKE. BY THE AFTERNOON EXPECT
THIS BOUNDARY TO BE SITUATED THROUGH THE CWA FROM NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS BACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA...WITH AREAS IN FAR
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LIKELY STAYING ON THE COOL SIDE. NOT ONLY WILL
THIS BE A FACTOR WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY...BUT WILL BE KEY WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS EVENINGS UPDATE TO HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH COOL ONSHORE
FLOW PROVIDING DRASTICALLY VARYING CONDITIONS FROM THE LOW 70S
EXPECTED SOUTH OF I80.
AFTER A LIKELY LULL IN PRECIP LATE MORNING/MIDDAY...STILL AM
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA. IN
PARTICULAR...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS OCCURRING
IN THE PRESENCE OF LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY YIELD SURFACE
BASE/ML CAPE AT OR ABOVE 1000J/KG. SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA
SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 19 TO 21Z FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE I80/I88
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL AT THIS TIME FOR
THIS DEVELOPMENT TO BE FURTHER SOUTH. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVELS AND
LOW BULK SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF ANY WIDESPREAD
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN SOUTH OF I80. KEEPING THE AREA MORE BROAD AT
THIS TIME BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE THE DAY SHIFT TO GAIN A BETTER
HANDLE ON PLACEMENT LATER THIS MORNING. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND FORCING...BUT AS SOME WEAK ASCENT
WILL REMAIN PRESENT TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
339 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE MAJORITY OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE CWA WHILE CLOUD
COVER LIKELY DIMINISHES AND WITH A WARMER AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE...HAVE MAINTAINED WEDNESDAYS HIGH TEMPS OF AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STILL
MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH
INSTABILITY AXIS AND STRONGEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE WELL WEST OF
THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THIS POTENTIAL IS APPEARING TO BE ON
THE LOW SIDE. DONT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT AT THIS TIME AS
ITS STILL POSSIBLE FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST TO MAINTAIN
SOME OF ITS STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN CWA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. ESPECIALLY AS SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE MAIN
INSTABILITY AXIS COULD SWING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. BUT AT THIS
TIME...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO TO PAN OUT WILL BE FOR ANY
APPROACHING STORMS TO BE ON THE DIMINISHING TREND. STILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS PERIOD THOUGH MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN CWA GIVEN
SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO THE EXTENT OF THIS POSSIBLE
DIMINISHING TREND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
RAIN IS SHIFTING NORTH AND EXPECTING A FEW HOURS OF DRIZZLE TO
HANG ON BEHIND THE MAIN SHOWERS. MVFR VSBY IS BEING OBSERVED
THROUGH WILL COUNTY AND IS SLOWLY IMPROVING. THEREFORE KEPT MVFR
VSBY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN AND TIED TO THE DRIZZLE. CIGS SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTN. MDW HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF TRYING TO
SCATTER OUT OF THE IFR LAYER...BUT IS STRUGGLING TO DO SO. IFR
CIGS ARE ALSO BEING REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS WILL COUNTY...SO KEPT
A PESSIMISTIC FORECAST GOING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MIXING
GETS GOING AND IFR CIGS SCATTER OUT SOONER THAN FORECAST.
EXPECTING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
TO BE DRY. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND A DECENT SURFACE
INVERSION FORMS. VSBYS WILL FALL BACK TO IFR OR MVFR WITH IFR TO
LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOMORROW WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTN.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CIG AND VSBY TRENDS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING AND VALUES.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
317 AM CDT
CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS...EXPECT WAVES TO BE IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY. ELSEWHERE WAVES WILL BE LESS FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WITH
THE SHORTER FETCH LENGTH. THE GRADIENT THAT WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN CREATING THE HIGHER WINDS TO 30 KT
AT TIMES THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN BY THE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EASTERLY THEN BEGIN
TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH TODAY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER
IOWA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
LAKE THEN TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY
EVENING AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...KEEPING A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY
AND LIKELY SATURDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1149 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
1125 AM CDT
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LIES OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO ABOUT I-80
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SKIES ARE SCATTERING OUT OVER ILX/S CWA THIS
MORNING. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS FEATURES UPWARD OF 1000 J/KG NEAR
PONTIAC. THE VORT MAX THAT WILL HELP FORCE CONVECTION IS OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL. SO BETWEEN THICK CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA AND FORCING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...THINKING STRONGER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL
WELL SOUTH OF OUR WARNING AREA. BACKED OFF ON CHANCES OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. KEPT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIP WILL END QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE FORCING PUSHES
EAST OF THE REGION. THEREFORE...BACKED OFF ON POPS THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
NIGHT.
JEE
&&
.SHORT TERM...
339 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH SHOWER TRENDS THIS
MORNING...RETURNING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG...AND THEN WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING...STEADY STREAM OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS RESULTING IN CONTINUED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIME FRAME. DURING THIS
TIME...MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO OBSERVE ON/OFF PERIODS OF
PRECIP AND WHILE ANY INSTABILITY STILL REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE
CWA...DONT ANTICIPATE ANY THUNDER THIS MORNING FOR ALL AREAS.
SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS SITUATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AT THIS TIME.
GUIDANCE STILL CONSISTENT WITH THIS BOUNDARY PUSHING FURTHER NORTH
BUT WITH BEING MODIFIED DUE TO THE LAKE. BY THE AFTERNOON EXPECT
THIS BOUNDARY TO BE SITUATED THROUGH THE CWA FROM NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS BACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA...WITH AREAS IN FAR
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LIKELY STAYING ON THE COOL SIDE. NOT ONLY WILL
THIS BE A FACTOR WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY...BUT WILL BE KEY WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS EVENINGS UPDATE TO HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH COOL ONSHORE
FLOW PROVIDING DRASTICALLY VARYING CONDITIONS FROM THE LOW 70S
EXPECTED SOUTH OF I80.
AFTER A LIKELY LULL IN PRECIP LATE MORNING/MIDDAY...STILL AM
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA. IN
PARTICULAR...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS OCCURRING
IN THE PRESENCE OF LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY YIELD SURFACE
BASE/ML CAPE AT OR ABOVE 1000J/KG. SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA
SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 19 TO 21Z FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE I80/I88
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL AT THIS TIME FOR
THIS DEVELOPMENT TO BE FURTHER SOUTH. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVELS AND
LOW BULK SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF ANY WIDESPREAD
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN SOUTH OF I80. KEEPING THE AREA MORE BROAD AT
THIS TIME BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE THE DAY SHIFT TO GAIN A BETTER
HANDLE ON PLACEMENT LATER THIS MORNING. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND FORCING...BUT AS SOME WEAK ASCENT
WILL REMAIN PRESENT TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
339 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE MAJORITY OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE CWA WHILE CLOUD
COVER LIKELY DIMINISHES AND WITH A WARMER AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE...HAVE MAINTAINED WEDNESDAYS HIGH TEMPS OF AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STILL
MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH
INSTABILITY AXIS AND STRONGEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE WELL WEST OF
THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THIS POTENTIAL IS APPEARING TO BE ON
THE LOW SIDE. DONT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT AT THIS TIME AS
ITS STILL POSSIBLE FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST TO MAINTAIN
SOME OF ITS STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN CWA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. ESPECIALLY AS SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE MAIN
INSTABILITY AXIS COULD SWING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. BUT AT THIS
TIME...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO TO PAN OUT WILL BE FOR ANY
APPROACHING STORMS TO BE ON THE DIMINISHING TREND. STILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS PERIOD THOUGH MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN CWA GIVEN
SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO THE EXTENT OF THIS POSSIBLE
DIMINISHING TREND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
MANY CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM FOR AVIATION INTERESTS...MAINLY
WITH POCKETS OF RAIN THIS MORNING AND IFR CIGS. THE CONTINUED EAST
WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER THE GRADIENT
DOES SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SO EXPECT THE
SPEEDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM 10-14KT DOWN TO AROUND 4-6KT BY
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT POSSIBLY SEEING NEW PRECIP OR
CONVECTION DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF TAF SITES. THE LULL IN PRECIP
COULD ALLOW SOME LIFT TO THE CIGS AND APPROACH LOW END MVFR CONDS
WITH BASES AROUND 1200-1500FT AGL...BUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET CIGS
ARE POISED TO FALL BACK TOWARDS IFR WITH BASES OVERNIGHT AROUND
400-600FT AGL. SOME GUIDANCE HAS HINTED THAT BASES COULD FALL
LOWER...BUT THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SO
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
317 AM CDT
CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS...EXPECT WAVES TO BE IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY. ELSEWHERE WAVES WILL BE LESS FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WITH
THE SHORTER FETCH LENGTH. THE GRADIENT THAT WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN CREATING THE HIGHER WINDS TO 30 KT
AT TIMES THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN BY THE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EASTERLY THEN BEGIN
TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH TODAY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER
IOWA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
LAKE THEN TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY
EVENING AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...KEEPING A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY
AND LIKELY SATURDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
212 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER EASTERN
KANSAS. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LOW. AT THE SURFACE...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS IN PLACE FROM JUST
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SNW HALF
OF THE CW (JUST NORTHWEST OF KMCK AND KGLD).
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SUBSIDENCE SPREADING OVER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST BY 12Z TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING PARTICULARLY
IN OUR NORTH AND EAST...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MEAN FLOW
WILL TEND TO BE PARALLEL TO FRONT AND POST FRONTAL ELEVATED
FRONTOGENESIS (850-700MB LAYER)...WHICH COULD SUPPORT TRAINING OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
REGARDING SEVERE THREAT...STRONG LINEAR/SPEED SHEAR IS IN PLACE AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING RAISING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS/MCS POTENTIAL. LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS LIMITED CAPE CURRENTLY
SHOW BY LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. GFS CURRENTLY REFLECTS CURRENT TRENDS
AND AT MOST HAS MU CAPE IN THE 500-900 J/KG RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER MU CAPE IN THE 900-
1500 J/KG RANGE IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE NAM ALREADY SEEMS TO BE RUNNING HIGH ON
TDS THIS IS LIKELY INFLUENCING ITS CAPE PROFILES. IF GFS CONTINUES
TO VERIFY I AM SKEPTICAL THAT WE WOULD SEE MORE THAN SHOWERS AND
MARGINAL THUNDERSTORMS. WITH INVERTED V PROFILES ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
STRONG WINDS WILL BE A PRIMARY THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS. IF
HIGHER CAPE (NAM) VERIFIES THEN WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED QUARTER SIZE
HAIL THREAT.
WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING
SHOULD END WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN ROTATES THROUGH THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRECIP
SIGNAL IN OUR SOUTHWEST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND I STUCK WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY I AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE ACTIVITY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS (MAINLY
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S).
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. THE RIDGE
REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN AND
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ROTATE IN FROM
THE WEST NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND AROUND A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WENT WITH DRY POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE BLEND GAVE 40 TO 50
PERCENT POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
SOME SUBSIDENCE TO OVERCOME AS THE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD THUS I
REDUCED POPS SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY...POPS REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AS THE LOW
MOVES OVER THE CWA AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD
BOTH TERMINALS ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR CIG/VIS CANT BE
RULED OUT WITH STRONGER STORMS/HEAVIER SHOWERS. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS POINT. MAIN
CHANGE WAS TO FINE TUNE TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON
LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AT BOTH TAF SITES...ALONG WITH
INCREASE IN WINDS AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
159 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER EASTERN
KANSAS. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LOW. AT THE SURFACE...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS IN PLACE FROM JUST
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SNW HALF
OF THE CW (JUST NORTHWEST OF KMCK AND KGLD).
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SUBSIDENCE SPREADING OVER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST BY 12Z TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING PARTICULARLY
IN OUR NORTH AND EAST...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MEAN FLOW
WILL TEND TO BE PARALLEL TO FRONT AND POST FRONTAL ELEVATED
FRONTOGENESIS (850-700MB LAYER)...WHICH COULD SUPPORT TRAINING OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
REGARDING SEVERE THREAT...STRONG LINEAR/SPEED SHEAR IS IN PLACE AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING RAISING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS/MCS POTENTIAL. LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS LIMITED CAPE CURRENTLY
SHOW BY LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. GFS CURRENTLY REFLECTS CURRENT TRENDS
AND AT MOST HAS MU CAPE IN THE 500-900 J/KG RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER MU CAPE IN THE 900-
1500 J/KG RANGE IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE NAM ALREADY SEEMS TO BE RUNNING HIGH ON
TDS THIS IS LIKELY INFLUENCING ITS CAPE PROFILES. IF GFS CONTINUES
TO VERIFY I AM SKEPTICAL THAT WE WOULD SEE MORE THAN SHOWERS AND
MARGINAL THUNDERSTORMS. WITH INVERTED V PROFILES ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
STRONG WINDS WILL BE A PRIMARY THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS. IF
HIGHER CAPE (NAM) VERIFIES THEN WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED QUARTER SIZE
HAIL THREAT.
WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING
SHOULD END WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN ROTATES THROUGH THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRECIP
SIGNAL IN OUR SOUTHWEST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND I STUCK WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY I AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE ACTIVITY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS (MAINLY
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S).
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD HOLDS THE PATTERN IT
HAS BEEN SHOWING THE PAST FEW DAYS. A TROUGH IS SITTING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THIS FLOW STAYS CONSISTENT UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY WHEN A CLOSED
LOW PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEWER MODEL RUNS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOW THEY ARE HANDLING THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW.
WITH THE LOW PUSHING EAST...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO JOG EAST OVER THE
CWA AND HOLDS THIS PATTERN THROUGH MID DAY SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY THE CLOSED LOW STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES AND TAPS INTO
MOISTURE FROM MEXICO. THIS BRINGS PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW FORCING IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BESIDES BULK
SHEAR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S FRIDAY WITH A DROP
INTO THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD
BOTH TERMINALS ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR CIG/VIS CANT BE
RULED OUT WITH STRONGER STORMS/HEAVIER SHOWERS. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS POINT. MAIN
CHANGE WAS TO FINE TUNE TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON
LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AT BOTH TAF SITES...ALONG WITH
INCREASE IN WINDS AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
337 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. A STORM SYSTEM HAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN KY...ALREADY RESULTING IN MULTIPLE SEVERE AND TORNADO
WARNINGS. INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN KY HAS INCREASED WITH THE
LATEST NAM RUNS...WITH 2K J/KG EXPECTED BY 21Z. HOWEVER...HIGHEST
CAPE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS WEST OF THE CWA...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME LARGE HAIL MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA. FURTHERMORE STRONG LLVL WIND
SHEAR...WITH THE BULK OF THE SHEAR BELOW 4K FT...ALSO SHOWING A HIGH
POSSIBILITY FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. GIVEN THE
HISTORY OF THESE STORMS SO FAR...CAN ALSO EXPECT A LARGE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
HI RES MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME AGREEING ON THE SHORT
TERM...ESPECIALLY THE TRACK OF STORMS AS THEY HEAD INTO OUR REGION.
THIS MORNING THE HRRR INITIALIZED THE BEST...BUT DID NOT HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN KY. LATER ON...THE HI
RES ARW HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE DYING SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA AND
THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. IF THIS HELD TRUE IT SHOWED THE SYSTEM
COLD POOLING THEN DIVING SOUTHWARD...LIKELY ONLY CLIPPING OUR SW
COUNTIES. THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SEEMED TO COME INTO A SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE CURRENT CONVECTION TRAVELING ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER...WITH ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REACH NORTH CENTRAL KY AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 0
AND 6Z. BASED NEAR TERM POPS ON THIS IDEA...HOWEVER AM A BIT
CONCERNED THAT THIS IS A BIT SLOW...AS THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALREADY BE
EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AT THAT POINT.
SRLY WINDS AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
WHILE WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW DRY PERIODS...THE
WEATHER AS A WHOLE WILL REMAIN VERY UNSETTLED. THE PERIOD WILL
START AS A COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING ON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
FRONT SHOULD DEPART EARLY FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
RETURNING FOR FRIDAY. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. THE
QUESTION THEN TURNS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP
HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING
ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS ZONE...SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS
INTO NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN KY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
STILL IN CONTROL WITH SW WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.
THERE IS STILL A BIT OF CONCERN FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PORTION
OF THE TAF...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO WHERE THE STORMS ARE GOING TO DEVELOP/TRAVEL AND WHAT TAF
SITES THEY WILL IMPACTS WHEN. AS SUCH...TRIED TO TIME OUT BEST
CHANCES BUT KEPT WITH VCTS AT THIS TIME. AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
NEAR OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WILL UPDATE FOR BETTER
TIMING AND IMPACTS. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HIGH
WINDS...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE PRESENT IN SOME OF THESE STORMS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS WE HEAD INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...HOWEVER EXPECT LOW CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE TO STICK AROUND
MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
436 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
12Z RAOBS AND LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A BLOCKY UPR
AIR PATTERN OVER NAMERICA. A BLDG UPR RDG EXTENDS FM NW ONTARIO INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS AND IS SITUATED BTWN A CLOSED LO OVER THE CNDN
MARITIMES AND ANOTHER CLOSED LO OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. ANOTHER SHRTWV
IS SLIDING ENE THRU THE MID/UPR MS RIVER VALLEY BUT IS WEAKENING
WITH TIME AS IT LIFTS INTO THE EXPANDING UPR RDG. BUT THERE IS A
GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER RELATED TO A VERY
MOIST 12Z GRB SDNG /PWAT 1.12 INCH/. BUT VERY DRY AIR NOTED JUST TO
THE NE ON THE 12Z APX RAOB /PWAT 0.16 INCH/ IS PROVIDING A SHARP NRN
EDGE TO THE CLD COVER AND THE PCPN EXPANSION. UNDER SHARP PRES
GRADIENT BTWN SFC HUDSON BAY HI PRES AND WEAKENING SFC LO PRES TROF
APRCHG FM THE SW...GUSTY SE WINDS HAVE REACHED 30 MPH AT SOME
PLACES...ACCENTUATING FIRE WX DANGER AS SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL
INTO THE 60S AND RH HAS DROPPED AOB 20 PCT AWAY FM THE CLOUDY AREAS
WITH DAYTIME MIXING.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT INTO WED FOCUS ON CLD TRENDS/POPS AND TEMPS.
FORTUNATELY...WED WL FEATURE MOISTER LLVL AIR/WEAKER WINDS...SO FIRE
WX CONCERNS WL BE REDUCED.
TNGT...APRCHG SHRTWV TO THE SW IS FCST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...ALONG
WITH ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR FORCING. DEEPER RH IS FCST TO INCRS SLOWLY
OVER MAINLY THE SW PORTION OF UPR MI. BUT WITH MINIMAL DEEP LYR
FORCING AND LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR...EXPECT NO MORE THAN SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS IN SOME PLACES NEAR THE WI BORDER/WRN LK SUP. THE
NE PORTION OF UPR MI WL BE CLOSER TO THE HUDSON BAY HI PRES/SLOWLY
RETREATING DRY AIRMASS AND REMAIN MOCLR. MIN TEMPS WL BE LOWEST IN
THIS AREA...FALLING INTO THE 30S EVEN THOUGH A STEADY ESE WIND WL
PERSIST UNDER THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE HUDSON BAY HI AND LOWER MSLP
TO THE SW.
WED...ALTHOUGH THE SHRTWV TO THE SW WL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT...
DEEPER MSTR IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD ALL OF UPR MI AS THE
LO TO MID LVL FLOW SLOWLY VEERS TOWARD THE S. SOME OF THE MODELS
GENERATE SOME LIGHT PCPN OVER MAINLY THE W AND CENTRAL WHERE SFC
DEWPTS WL BE RISING. BUT WITH LIMITED LARGER SCALE FORCING...OPTED
TO MAINTAIN PREVIOUS DRY FCST. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE A BIT LOWER ON
WED WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLD COVER. THE LLVL DRY AIR WL BE MOST
RESILIENT OVER THE E...WHERE THE MIN RH WL AT LEAST APRCH 30 PCT IN
THE AFTN. SINCE WINDS WL BE LIGHTER AND GUST NO MORE THAN 15 TO 20
MPH...WL ISSUE NO NEW FIRE WX STATEMENTS ATTM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH PERIODS OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
CWA WILL BREAK DOWN WHILE SHIFTING EAST AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS. VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL DURING THE EVENING...BUT RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS
WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THIS PRECIP AT GROUND LEVEL. A
POCKET OF HIGHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE MID-MS VALLEY ON WED WILL SPREAD NNE DURING THE NIGHT. AS IS
GENERALLY THE CASE WITH REMNANT CONVECTIVE PRECIP...GUIDANCE IS
STRUGGLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. SHOWERS THEN DIMINISH FROM
THE SW AS DRIER AIR WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT...USHERING
IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE WEST WIND UPSLOPE
AREAS. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL ON FRI...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE. WESTERLY WINDS ALSO LOOK TO BECOME
QUITE GUSTY DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 30MPH ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE WEST HALF...AS THE SFC LOW SLOWS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DRIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SEND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
REGION...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DECENT CLOUD COVER TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK INVERSION COMBINED WITH H8
TEMPS APPROACHING -10C WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS QUITE LOW...WITH
WIDESPREAD 40S EXPECTED...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 30S EAST HALF ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR. WET BULBS ZERO LEVELS SUPPORT MOSTLY MOSTLY SNOW
OUTSIDE OF THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DIRUNAL HEATING ASSISTANCE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGHING AND LOW-LEVEL
COLD CORE WILL SHIFT EAST. HOWEVER...A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES ON
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
ALTHOUGH HIER MID LVL MSTR WL GRADUALLY INVADE UPR MI THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD...THE LLVLS WL REMAIN DRY...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL 3 TAF SITES THRU 11/18Z EVEN IF SOME SPRINKLES IMPACT IWD. GUSTY
WINDS AT ALL THE SITES THIS AFTN WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
EXPECT E TO NE WINDS UP TO 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN LAKE WHERE TERRAIN
INFLUENCES FUNNEL AND ACCENTUATE THIS FLOW...THRU WED BETWEEN SLOWLY
DEPARTING HI PRES IN QUEBEC AND LO PRES APPROACHING FROM THE SW. AS
THIS LO LIFTS INTO ONTARIO ON THU...EXPECT A WSHFT TO THE W AND
THEN THE NW WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT. AS A RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND...THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ001>015-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
359 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
12Z RAOBS AND LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A BLOCKY UPR
AIR PATTERN OVER NAMERICA. A BLDG UPR RDG EXTENDS FM NW ONTARIO INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS AND IS SITUATED BTWN A CLOSED LO OVER THE CNDN
MARITIMES AND ANOTHER CLOSED LO OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. ANOTHER SHRTWV
IS SLIDING ENE THRU THE MID/UPR MS RIVER VALLEY BUT IS WEAKENING
WITH TIME AS IT LIFTS INTO THE EXPANDING UPR RDG. BUT THERE IS A
GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER RELATED TO A VERY
MOIST 12Z GRB SDNG /PWAT 1.12 INCH/. BUT VERY DRY AIR NOTED JUST TO
THE NE ON THE 12Z APX RAOB /PWAT 0.16 INCH/ IS PROVIDING A SHARP NRN
EDGE TO THE CLD COVER AND THE PCPN EXPANSION. UNDER SHARP PRES
GRADIENT BTWN SFC HUDSON BAY HI PRES AND WEAKENING SFC LO PRES TROF
APRCHG FM THE SW...GUSTY SE WINDS HAVE REACHED 30 MPH AT SOME
PLACES...ACCENTUATING FIRE WX DANGER AS SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL
INTO THE 60S AND RH HAS DROPPED AOB 20 PCT AWAY FM THE CLOUDY AREAS
WITH DAYTIME MIXING.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT INTO WED FOCUS ON CLD TRENDS/POPS AND TEMPS.
FORTUNATELY...WED WL FEATURE MOISTER LLVL AIR/WEAKER WINDS...SO FIRE
WX CONCERNS WL BE REDUCED.
TNGT...APRCHG SHRTWV TO THE SW IS FCST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...ALONG
WITH ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR FORCING. DEEPER RH IS FCST TO INCRS SLOWLY
OVER MAINLY THE SW PORTION OF UPR MI. BUT WITH MINIMAL DEEP LYR
FORCING AND LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR...EXPECT NO MORE THAN SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS IN SOME PLACES NEAR THE WI BORDER/WRN LK SUP. THE
NE PORTION OF UPR MI WL BE CLOSER TO THE HUDSON BAY HI PRES/SLOWLY
RETREATING DRY AIRMASS AND REMAIN MOCLR. MIN TEMPS WL BE LOWEST IN
THIS AREA...FALLING INTO THE 30S EVEN THOUGH A STEADY ESE WIND WL
PERSIST UNDER THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE HUDSON BAY HI AND LOWER MSLP
TO THE SW.
WED...ALTHOUGH THE SHRTWV TO THE SW WL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT...
DEEPER MSTR IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD ALL OF UPR MI AS THE
LO TO MID LVL FLOW SLOWLY VEERS TOWARD THE S. SOME OF THE MODELS
GENERATE SOME LIGHT PCPN OVER MAINLY THE W AND CENTRAL WHERE SFC
DEWPTS WL BE RISING. BUT WITH LIMITED LARGER SCALE FORCING...OPTED
TO MAINTAIN PREVIOUS DRY FCST. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE A BIT LOWER ON
WED WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLD COVER. THE LLVL DRY AIR WL BE MOST
RESILIENT OVER THE E...WHERE THE MIN RH WL AT LEAST APRCH 30 PCT IN
THE AFTN. SINCE WINDS WL BE LIGHTER AND GUST NO MORE THAN 15 TO 20
MPH...WL ISSUE NO NEW FIRE WX STATEMENTS ATTM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
RIDGE ALOFT GIVES WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND INCREASED TROUGHING THU
INTO FRI. TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING THE DRY WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK SLIDES OVER
QUEBEC ON WED WITH RIDGE STILL LINGERING BACK OVER UPR MICHIGAN. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER DAKOTAS SLOWLY MOVES TO NORTHERN MN BY WED
EVENING. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER ON WED. NOT MUCH RAIN AS LOW-LEVELS STAY DRY WITH SFC
RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE AREA. COULD BE SPRINKLES OUT OF MID CLOUD
DECK. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...EXPECT RH VALUES
MUCH HIGHER THAN EARLY THIS WEEK. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE
OVER FAR EAST CWA WHERE SKIES MAY STAY MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY CLOSER
TO SFC RIDGE. WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 15 MPH SO FIRE WX
ISSUES SHOULD NOT BE AS ELEVATED AS THEY ARE TODAY.
WED NIGHT INTO THU WE WILL SEE IF WE CAN GET SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UNFORTUNATELY...NOT SOLD ON THIS IDEA YET.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIABILITY. OVERALL IDEA REMAINS IN PLACE.
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH HITS WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT AND DEFLECTS ACROSS
MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN BASE OF
TROUGH ALONG WITH SFC LOW LIFTS TOWARD UPR MICHIGAN LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU MORNING. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REVOLVE AROUND EASTERN EXTENT
OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN AND HOW MUCH ADDITONAL RAIN
WILL OCCUR FARTHER EAST ON NOSE OF H25 JET STREAK AND H85 THETA-E
ADVECTION. LIKELY POPS REMAIN ON TRACK...ITS THE AMOUNTS THAT ARE
MORE IN QUESTION. LEARY THAT THERE IS STILL MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOWN
BOTH AT THE SFC OR ELEVATED. THINK THIS MAY ACT TO KEEP MAJORITY OF
THETA-E ADVECTION PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEN...IF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH ENDS UP MAINLY WEST OF CWA AS
ECMWF SHOWS...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD BE DOWN TO CONVERGENCE ALONG
SFC-H85 FRONT AND MODEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. LACK OF FORCING AWAY FM
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN SUGGESTS QPF
OVER CNTRL AND EAST MAY END UP BLO 0.25 INCH MANY SPOTS. WESTERN CWA
MAY SEE TOWARD 0.50 INCH.
AFTER THE RAIN ON THU MINIMAL FORCING AROUND FOR PRECIP THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF STRONGER UPPER TROUGHING. NEXT SHORTWAVE
COMING IN DURING THE AFTN ON FRI MAY ALLOW FOR SHRA COVERAGE TO RAMP
UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE FRI AFTN INTO FRI
EVENING BRINGS STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. H85
TEMPS DROP TO -8C TO -10C BY 12Z ON SAT. NW WINDS AND LK SUPERIOR
WATER TEMPS +3 TO +5C WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES/LIFT ARE OCCURRING AS
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. MEAN TROUGH PERSISTS THROUGH REST OF THE
WEEKEND. STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH TROUGH IS SHOWING UP
AND WOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW OR JUST SNOW SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING AS H85 TEMPS REMAIN LOWER THAN -5C AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES ARE BLO 1300DAM. ECMWF MOST BULLISH WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS...WOULD RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
SAT NIGHT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST AND CENTRAL CWA. EVEN WITHOUT
ANY SNOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS CHILLY WITH WELL BLO NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SAT ALONG WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS
MODERATE TO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ON SUN AND BACK INTO THE 50S ON
MON AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS START
TO RISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
ALTHOUGH HIER MID LVL MSTR WL GRADUALLY INVADE UPR MI THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD...THE LLVLS WL REMAIN DRY...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL 3 TAF SITES THRU 11/18Z EVEN IF SOME SPRINKLES IMPACT IWD. GUSTY
WINDS AT ALL THE SITES THIS AFTN WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
EXPECT E TO NE WINDS UP TO 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN LAKE WHERE TERRAIN
INFLUENCES FUNNEL AND ACCENTUATE THIS FLOW...THRU WED BETWEEN SLOWLY
DEPARTING HI PRES IN QUEBEC AND LO PRES APPROACHING FROM THE SW. AS
THIS LO LIFTS INTO ONTARIO ON THU...EXPECT A WSHFT TO THE W AND
THEN THE NW WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT. AS A RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND...THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ001>015-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
139 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICAED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NW
ONTARIO THROUGH MICHIGAN BETWEEN A A TROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAIN INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA. AT THE
SFC...ESE GRADIENT FLOW OVER UPPER MI WAS INCREASING BETWEEN A RIDGE
FROM NE QUEBEC AND JAMES BAY AND LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS. IR LOOP
SHOWED BANDS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI WHILE THICKER CLOUDS
WITH PCPN WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH FROM SE MN INTO SRN WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS CENTER ON FIRE WEATHER RISKS TODAY.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BLOCKING RIDGE THROUGH THE REGION
AND VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL SLOW THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF
PCPN FROM ERN MN THROUGH SRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INTO NRN MO AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING
TOWARD NRN IL. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY AFFECT THE FAR SOUTH
NEAR MNM THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 5C TO 7C RANGE...EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND
MIXING THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND WITH LOWER READINGS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES DOWNWIND FROM
THE SE FLOW. THE MIXING SHOULD ALSO DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER
20S RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES FROM 20 TO 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
FCST 925 MB WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WILL ALSO SUPPORT GUSTS AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 25 MPH. ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE
THICKNESS OF THE HIGH CLOUDS AND THE IMPACT ON TEMPS/MIXING...FIRE
WEATHER PARAMETERS WERE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CRITICAL VALUES OVER INLAND
LOCATIONS TO UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BAND OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST...THE FORCING WEAKENS ENOUGH AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE
RIDGE SE THAT LITTLE IF ANY PCPN WILL MOVE INTO UPPER MI. ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
RIDGE ALOFT GIVES WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND INCREASED TROUGHING THU
INTO FRI. TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING THE DRY WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK SLIDES OVER
QUEBEC ON WED WITH RIDGE STILL LINGERING BACK OVER UPR MICHIGAN. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER DAKOTAS SLOWLY MOVES TO NORTHERN MN BY WED
EVENING. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER ON WED. NOT MUCH RAIN AS LOW-LEVELS STAY DRY WITH SFC
RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE AREA. COULD BE SPRINKLES OUT OF MID CLOUD
DECK. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...EXPECT RH VALUES
MUCH HIGHER THAN EARLY THIS WEEK. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE
OVER FAR EAST CWA WHERE SKIES MAY STAY MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY CLOSER
TO SFC RIDGE. WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 15 MPH SO FIRE WX
ISSUES SHOULD NOT BE AS ELEVATED AS THEY ARE TODAY.
WED NIGHT INTO THU WE WILL SEE IF WE CAN GET SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UNFORTUNATELY...NOT SOLD ON THIS IDEA YET.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIABILITY. OVERALL IDEA REMAINS IN PLACE.
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH HITS WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT AND DEFLECTS ACROSS
MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN BASE OF
TROUGH ALONG WITH SFC LOW LIFTS TOWARD UPR MICHIGAN LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU MORNING. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REVOLVE AROUND EASTERN EXTENT
OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN AND HOW MUCH ADDITONAL RAIN
WILL OCCUR FARTHER EAST ON NOSE OF H25 JET STREAK AND H85 THETA-E
ADVECTION. LIKELY POPS REMAIN ON TRACK...ITS THE AMOUNTS THAT ARE
MORE IN QUESTION. LEARY THAT THERE IS STILL MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOWN
BOTH AT THE SFC OR ELEVATED. THINK THIS MAY ACT TO KEEP MAJORITY OF
THETA-E ADVECTION PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEN...IF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH ENDS UP MAINLY WEST OF CWA AS
ECMWF SHOWS...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD BE DOWN TO CONVERGENCE ALONG
SFC-H85 FRONT AND MODEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. LACK OF FORCING AWAY FM
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN SUGGESTS QPF
OVER CNTRL AND EAST MAY END UP BLO 0.25 INCH MANY SPOTS. WESTERN CWA
MAY SEE TOWARD 0.50 INCH.
AFTER THE RAIN ON THU MINIMAL FORCING AROUND FOR PRECIP THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF STRONGER UPPER TROUGHING. NEXT SHORTWAVE
COMING IN DURING THE AFTN ON FRI MAY ALLOW FOR SHRA COVERAGE TO RAMP
UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE FRI AFTN INTO FRI
EVENING BRINGS STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. H85
TEMPS DROP TO -8C TO -10C BY 12Z ON SAT. NW WINDS AND LK SUPERIOR
WATER TEMPS +3 TO +5C WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES/LIFT ARE OCCURRING AS
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. MEAN TROUGH PERSISTS THROUGH REST OF THE
WEEKEND. STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH TROUGH IS SHOWING UP
AND WOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW OR JUST SNOW SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING AS H85 TEMPS REMAIN LOWER THAN -5C AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES ARE BLO 1300DAM. ECMWF MOST BULLISH WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS...WOULD RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
SAT NIGHT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST AND CENTRAL CWA. EVEN WITHOUT
ANY SNOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS CHILLY WITH WELL BLO NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SAT ALONG WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS
MODERATE TO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ON SUN AND BACK INTO THE 50S ON
MON AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS START
TO RISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
ALTHOUGH HIER MID LVL MSTR WL GRADUALLY INVADE UPR MI THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD...THE LLVLS WL REMAIN DRY...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL 3 TAF SITES THRU 11/18Z EVEN IF SOME SPRINKLES IMPACT IWD. GUSTY
WINDS AT ALL THE SITES THIS AFTN WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAINLY
OVER THE WESTERN LAKE TODAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL
THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER
TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO
LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW
AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ON ITS
SOUTHERN FLANK. A WEAKENING GRADIENT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW NW WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ001>015-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
403 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.DISCUSSION...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING THE
GENERAL THEME. AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WE ARE STILL WAITING TO
SEE ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA PER MORNING DISCUSSION...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HRRR GUIDANCE MAY
END UP BEING OVERDONE. AFTER ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING...EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL RAIN CHANCES
RETURN THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMAL IN THIS WARM PATTERN AND HIGHS COULD APPROACH 90 F
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN A FEW LOCATIONS. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE PREVAILING AT TAF SITES ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING AND
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION TOWARD DAY
BREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING...PERHAPS RESULTING IN ANOTHER BOUT OF MVFR
TO IFR CATEGORIES FIRST THING WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND LOW STRATUS DISSIPATES. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 3-8
KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. /19/
&&
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
HELP SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR CWA. WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
INCREASE PWATS FROM AN INCH AND A QUARTER TO OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BY THURSDAY EVENING. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
GET AN EARLY START AND SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE NOON.
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY
EVENING AND NOT PUSHING SOUTH OF OUR CWA UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS SLOWER THAN LAST NIGHT`S MODEL RUN SUGGESTED. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO OUR CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT KNOCKING
PWATS BELOW A HALF INCH BY FRIDAY EVENING. A >1020MB HIGH WILL
REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HELPS DROP ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
REMAINING WEST OF OUR CWA...LACK OF ANY RETURN FLOW WILL LIMIT DEEP
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT WILL GET BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS
STALLS THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT NORTH OF OUR CWA. EITHER WAY...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS RAIN BACK
OVER OUR CWA MONDAY FASTER THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH MODELS SUGGEST OUR
FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MONDAY
THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY NIGHT. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 67 88 66 86 / 14 4 9 23
MERIDIAN 65 88 64 85 / 16 5 4 22
VICKSBURG 67 88 66 86 / 9 5 10 25
HATTIESBURG 66 89 66 88 / 3 10 6 20
NATCHEZ 67 87 67 85 / 7 9 7 21
GREENVILLE 68 88 68 82 / 12 7 14 45
GREENWOOD 67 88 66 84 / 12 4 10 47
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
EC/22/19/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1146 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT FOR THE UPDATE TO BETTER REFLECT MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE SETTING UP OVER SE PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS WHERE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS HAVE SOME EFFECT. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY
MARGINAL FOR GETTING TSTM ACTIVITY HOWEVER AND WILL JUST INDICATE
SHOWERS. THIS IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE HRRR AND OTHER HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW STRATUS BREAKING UP
FAIRLY WELL AND EXPECT TO SEE A REVERSAL IN THE SKY COVER WITH
GREATER COVERAGE OVER SRN/ERN AREAS. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES CONTINUE AT TAF
SITES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VFR CATEGORIES ANTICIPATED AT MOST SITES BY MID-
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST SITES WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE.
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
SOME GUSTS REACHING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THESE BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3-8 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/
THE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE DELTA. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH PWATS
FALLING BELOW AN INCH...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S. A SHORT WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS IN THE WEST BY MORNING./15/
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
HELP SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR CWA. WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
INCREASE PWATS FROM AN INCH AND A QUARTER TO OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BY THURSDAY EVENING. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
GET AN EARLY START AND SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE NOON.
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY
EVENING AND NOT PUSHING SOUTH OF OUR CWA UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS SLOWER THAN LAST NIGHT`S MODEL RUN SUGGESTED. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO OUR CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT KNOCKING
PWATS BELOW A HALF INCH BY FRIDAY EVENING. A >1020MB HIGH WILL
REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HELPS DROP ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
REMAINING WEST OF OUR CWA...LACK OF ANY RETURN FLOW WILL LIMIT DEEP
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT WILL GET BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS
STALLS THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT NORTH OF OUR CWA. EITHER WAY...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS RAIN BACK
OVER OUR CWA MONDAY FASTER THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH MODELS SUGGEST OUR
FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MONDAY
THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY NIGHT. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 86 66 87 67 / 22 8 9 11
MERIDIAN 86 64 88 65 / 24 9 9 11
VICKSBURG 86 67 88 68 / 17 7 9 14
HATTIESBURG 88 66 89 66 / 10 8 8 12
NATCHEZ 86 68 87 67 / 15 6 8 13
GREENVILLE 86 67 88 68 / 13 13 11 17
GREENWOOD 86 67 87 67 / 17 13 12 13
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
549 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
A few isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible late this afternoon, but
any pcpn should diminish after sunset. Quiet wx is expected for
most of the evening hours compliments of shortwave ridging aloft.
Convection is expected to develop farther west later tonight
(especially after 06z) due to a strengthening LLJ impinging upon
a boundary. This activity may reach the western CWA before 12z.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Active weather is expected on Wednesday, starting with a round of
SHRA/TSRA during the morning hours which will have formed out
west overnight and then moved into the CWA. There is some
question regarding how far east the morning pcpn will reach
before dissipating.
Assuming that the morning convection does not leave too much
debris cloudiness over the region, temperatures should soar into
the mid to upper 80s on Wed aftn ahead of an approaching cold
front. Depending on cloud cover trends, a few locations in east
central MO and southwest IL may even flirt with 90 degrees. If any
locations do reach 90 degrees tomorrow, climate records indicate
that this would be earlier than average. The mean date of the
first 90 degree day of the calendar year is roughly May 21st for
St. Louis MO, around May 31st for Columbia MO, and near June 6th
for Quincy IL.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop Wed aftn/eve
invof the aforementioned cold front. Models continue to forecast
very high values of CAPE and favorable H7-H5 lapse rates of
6.5-7.5 deg C/km (some models depict even higher values) on Wed
aftn/eve ahead of the front. Although shear values are rather
low /perhaps 20-30 kts at best/ this does not preclude strong to
severe thunderstorms. The high instability on Wed may very well
compensate for the lower shear values, and storms which dvlp could
pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail during the
aftn/eve hours. The most likely scenario attm is that an MCS
develops farther west and moves into the CWA during the aftn/eve.
Pcpn will end with the passage of the cdfnt. As the midnight
shift noted in their discussion, the models continue to show a
slower progression of the front, therefore low PoPs were retained
through early Thu aftn across the southeastern CWA.
A surface high builds into the region on Thu night and suppresses
the bdry to the south. Meanwhile, a pattern change aloft results
in northwest flow dvlpg on Fri and persisting through the weekend.
There is a chance of rain on Fri/Fri night associated with a
reinforcing cdfnt dropping southward and an upper level vort max.
There is also a chance of rain when the boundary begins to lift
back northward as a wmfnt late this weekend and early next week.
Temperatures will be cooler than average this weekend.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Diurnal cumulus clouds should dissipate early this evening with
surface winds becoming light. There may be some light fog late
tonight/early Wednesday morning. Could not rule out weakening
showers/storms moving into COU Wednesday morning, but it appears
that the better chance of storms will occur Wednesday afternoon
and evening as the atmosphere destabilizes ahead of an approaching
cold front. For now will just include VCTS in the tafs Wednesday
afternoon with diurnal cumulus clouds developing again during the
late morning and afternoon. A strengthening sely surface wind can
be expected on Wednesday.
Specifics for KSTL: Diurnal cumulus clouds will dissipate early
this evening due to the loss of daytime heating. A light surface
wind can be expected tonight. There may be some light fog late
tonight/early Wednesday morning, although the NAM MOS guidance
looks overdone with its forecast of stratus and fog during this
time. Diurnal cumulus clouds will develop again late Wednesday
morning and afternoon with thunderstorms by late afternoon or
early evening. A strengthening sely surface wind can be expected
on Wednesday.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
340 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
A few isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible late this afternoon, but
any pcpn should diminish after sunset. Quiet wx is expected for
most of the evening hours compliments of shortwave ridging aloft.
Convection is expected to develop farther west later tonight
(especially after 06z) due to a strengthening LLJ impinging upon
a boundary. This activity may reach the western CWA before 12z.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Active weather is expected on Wednesday, starting with a round of
SHRA/TSRA during the morning hours which will have formed out
west overnight and then moved into the CWA. There is some
question regarding how far east the morning pcpn will reach
before dissipating.
Assuming that the morning convection does not leave too much
debris cloudiness over the region, temperatures should soar into
the mid to upper 80s on Wed aftn ahead of an approaching cold
front. Depending on cloud cover trends, a few locations in east
central MO and southwest IL may even flirt with 90 degrees. If any
locations do reach 90 degrees tomorrow, climate records indicate
that this would be earlier than average. The mean date of the
first 90 degree day of the calendar year is roughly May 21st for
St. Louis MO, around May 31st for Columbia MO, and near June 6th
for Quincy IL.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop Wed aftn/eve
invof the aforementioned cold front. Models continue to forecast
very high values of CAPE and favorable H7-H5 lapse rates of
6.5-7.5 deg C/km (some models depict even higher values) on Wed
aftn/eve ahead of the front. Although shear values are rather
low /perhaps 20-30 kts at best/ this does not preclude strong to
severe thunderstorms. The high instability on Wed may very well
compensate for the lower shear values, and storms which dvlp could
pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail during the
aftn/eve hours. The most likely scenario attm is that an MCS
develops farther west and moves into the CWA during the aftn/eve.
Pcpn will end with the passage of the cdfnt. As the midnight
shift noted in their discussion, the models continue to show a
slower progression of the front, therefore low PoPs were retained
through early Thu aftn across the southeastern CWA.
A surface high builds into the region on Thu night and suppresses
the bdry to the south. Meanwhile, a pattern change aloft results
in northwest flow dvlpg on Fri and persisting through the weekend.
There is a chance of rain on Fri/Fri night associated with a
reinforcing cdfnt dropping southward and an upper level vort max.
There is also a chance of rain when the boundary begins to lift
back northward as a wmfnt late this weekend and early next week.
Temperatures will be cooler than average this weekend.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Showers, thunderstorms have moved out of taf sites. So just some
lingering MVFR cigs for KUIN and KCPS that should lift to VFR by
20z. Otherwise, south to southwest winds to become light and
variable after 00z Wednesday. Warm front to setup over forecast
area on Wednesday morning with winds becoming southeasterly
towards mid morning.
Specifics for KSTL:
Showers, thunderstorms have moved out of metro area. So just some
lingering MVFR cigs at KCPS that should lift to VFR by 20z.
Otherwise, southwest winds to become light and variable after 02z
Wednesday. Warm front to setup over forecast area on Wednesday
morning with winds becoming southeasterly by 16z Wednesday then
veer to the southwest with thunderstorms developing ahead of next
system. Timing and coverage hard to pin down, so just have
vicinity ts at KSTL after 21z Wednesday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
257 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 257 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
A strong low level jet will develop tonight over Plains. Strong
moisture transport coupled with strong and focused isentropic ascent
should help thunderstorms develop over Kansas and Nebraska. This
area of storms will track to the east and should be moving into
northwestern Missouri around sunrise, give or take an hour or two.
It`s likely this area of storms will be weakening as it is moving
into the forecast area and continue to weaken through the late
morning hours. But there may be enough lift and elevated instability
to produce a few marginally severe storms as they are moving into
the area. However, the better chance for anything severe will be
during the afternoon and evening hours. Activity for this time will
be largely dependent on where the morning activity tracks and how
strong it remains later in the day. But for now, it looks like the
morning activity will weaken across northern Missouri and allow for
moderate to strong instability to develop by the afternoon. Forecast
soundings throughout the forecast area show potential for 3000 to
4000 J/kg of CAPE over mainly the eastern portions of the forecast
area. Shear looks marginal, at least earlier in the afternoon, but
should increase into the evening hours as stronger winds aloft,
associated with the upper shortwave, begin to impinge on the area.
Also, winds at the surface and low levels will be veering with time
through the afternoon as the cold front approaches. However, over
the northeastern portion of the forecast area, surface winds may be
backed to the southeast as they will be to the east/northeast of the
surface low. So overall, the best chances for severe storms, and
potentially a few supercells, will be over the northeastern sections
of the forecast area. Further southwest, where winds are more veered
and shear is generally weaker, more multicellular storms are likely.
The biggest hazards from these storms will be from large hail and
damaging winds. The system looks progressive enough that widespread
flood is unlikely, but with anomalously high precipitable water
values locally high amounts and/or rates are likely which would lead
to more of an isolated flash flood threat.
Moisture will be scoured out well to our south in the wake of this
front and as result, we should see some drying out on Thursday.
Another upper shortwave trough and associated front will move
through the area Friday. This should spread another chance for
showers and a few storms to the area. But overall, moisture looks
much more limited than Wednesday, limiting coverage and especially
amounts.
More showers and storms are expected next week with what looks like
a stalled frontal boundary in the region. A broad trough will slowly
move across the region in the first part of next week and provide
enough forcing to give us a good chance for showers and storms.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
VFR conditions are expected this afternoon through the overnight. A
possible area of thunderstorms may move into northern Missouri around
sunrise. For now have just mentioned VCTS groups for this as timing
and location are still uncertain. It also looks like low MVFR
ceilings will be advecting northward into this system and ahead of
the main cold front.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
234 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Sky has cleared out across the western CWA with a scattered
cumulus field in the eastern Ozarks. The clearing is due to
subsidence in the wake of the upper level system which exited to
the east of the area this morning. The tranquil conditions appear
to be short-lived however and the unsettled pattern and resultant
convective precipitaiton chances will be the main focus of the
forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
For tonight, will see low pressure strengthen over the central
Plains with a warm front starting to lift north into the forecast
area. Along with that, a 30-40 kt low level jet will be impinging
on the western CWA. Should see elevated overnight convection
develop and may see some fog developing over southern MO as the
higher dewpoints move in south of the warm front. Hail would be
the main strong to severe weather risk tonight with any storms.
Instabililty will increase on Wednesday with highs in the 80s and
dewpoints climbing into the mid to upper 60s. Should see afternoon
CAPES in the 3000-4000 j/kg range over parts of western MO and
southeast KS. 0-6 shear does not look overly impressive with the
best shear staying off to the west of our CWA, however we will
have a hail and wind risk during the afternoon and nighttime hours
due to the instability and more favorable theta-e differences,
especially over western CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
A cold front and upper level shortwave will push through on
Thursday with remnant showers and thunderstorms moving through,
mainly during the morning hours. Clearing should take place from
west to east during the afternoon as high pressure builds into the
region.
Northwest flow aloft will bring another shortwave and surface
front through the area late Friday into Friday night with the next
chance at thunderstorms.
The flow will become more westerly over the weekend with
additional chances of showers and thunderstorms by Saturday night
into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.
Southwest breezes will shift to the south southeast tonight and
become light.
Otherwise yesterday`s storm system continues to exit the area,
bringing fair weather to the Ozarks.
Safe Travels.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
217 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue May 10 2016
An upper level short wave trough will continue to move east across
central Missouri this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue this morning across central Missouri and the eastern
Missouri Ozarks along the nose of a low level jet stream
associated with that wave. This activity will diminish from west
to east as the morning progresses.
By this afternoon, an upper level short wave ridge and associated
warming mid-level temperatures should effectively shut down
thunderstorm potential for most areas. There may be an outside
shot for an isolated storm across far south-central Missouri or
the eastern Ozarks where convective inhibition will be weaker.
With plenty of sunshine expected by afternoon, high temperatures
today will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s...with a few
middle 80s readings expected back towards I-49.
Isentropic upglide will then increase tonight as a low level jet
stream noses into the area in conjunction with a surface warm
front lifting north. Inspection of forecast soundings indicates
potential for scattered thunderstorms with only a weak capping
inversion present for parcels lifted in the 825-700 mb layer.
Additionally, there will be the potential for patchy fog as low
level moisture begins to increase.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Wednesday and Wednesday night will be interesting across the
region. First off, there appears to be the potential for a
mesoscale convective system (MCS) to develop across northeastern
Kansas during the predawn hours and then slide to the east-
southeast towards central Missouri during the morning hours.
Meanwhile, the atmosphere will become highly unstable by the
afternoon with MLCAPEs easily reaching into the 2000-3000 J/kg
range. Values may even exceed 3000 J/kg across western Missouri
as low level moisture begins to pool ahead of an approaching cold
front.
It is quite possible that overnight/early morning convection
(possibly including that MCS) could throw out outflow boundaries
that trigger convection into the afternoon. Additionally, the
aforementioned cold front will likely initiate convection during
the late afternoon/early evening across southeastern Kansas and
west-central Missouri. The setup then remains favorable for what
should be a squall line pushing southeast across much of the area
Wednesday night.
Storms that initiate in the afternoon and evening will have a
decent potential for damaging wind gusts given the presence of
high theta-e differentials (25-35 Kelvin). While deep layer shear
will be on the weak side, there will be a threat for some large
hail given the expected high amounts of CAPE.
Outside of the storms, Wednesday may be the first day with a true
summer feel to it. High temperatures will make it into the lower
to middle 80s with surface dew points in the middle to perhaps
even upper 60s. This will result in heat indices getting into the
upper 80s over some areas.
Cooler weather and a drier air mass will then return to the
Ozarks to finish the work week. Models then bring another front
through the area Friday night with perhaps another quick round of
showers and thunderstorms.
The setup for late this weekend and early next week then continues
to look interesting. Global models indicate the upper level
flow becoming either westerly or west-southwesterly with several
embedded short wave troughs. This would support that front hanging
up and becoming quasi-stationary somewhere across the region. If
and where this happens, there would be an increasing risk for
heavy rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions through most of this evening. However, fog
development can be expected tonight as a warm front lifts across
the region. Visibilities could fall to around 1 mile at times.
Its also possible that a storm or two forms along this front as
well.
Otherwise look for a wind shift to the south at 0 to 7 mph through
the overnight hours.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
217 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue May 10 2016
An upper level short wave trough will continue to move east across
central Missouri this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue this morning across central Missouri and the eastern
Missouri Ozarks along the nose of a low level jet stream
associated with that wave. This activity will diminish from west
to east as the morning progresses.
By this afternoon, an upper level short wave ridge and associated
warming mid-level temperatures should effectively shut down
thunderstorm potential for most areas. There may be an outside
shot for an isolated storm across far south-central Missouri or
the eastern Ozarks where convective inhibition will be weaker.
With plenty of sunshine expected by afternoon, high temperatures
today will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s...with a few
middle 80s readings expected back towards I-49.
Isentropic upglide will then increase tonight as a low level jet
stream noses into the area in conjunction with a surface warm
front lifting north. Inspection of forecast soundings indicates
potential for scattered thunderstorms with only a weak capping
inversion present for parcels lifted in the 825-700 mb layer.
Additionally, there will be the potential for patchy fog as low
level moisture begins to increase.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Wednesday and Wednesday night will be interesting across the
region. First off, there appears to be the potential for a
mesoscale convective system (MCS) to develop across northeastern
Kansas during the predawn hours and then slide to the east-
southeast towards central Missouri during the morning hours.
Meanwhile, the atmosphere will become highly unstable by the
afternoon with MLCAPEs easily reaching into the 2000-3000 J/kg
range. Values may even exceed 3000 J/kg across western Missouri
as low level moisture begins to pool ahead of an approaching cold
front.
It is quite possible that overnight/early morning convection
(possibly including that MCS) could throw out outflow boundaries
that trigger convection into the afternoon. Additionally, the
aforementioned cold front will likely initiate convection during
the late afternoon/early evening across southeastern Kansas and
west-central Missouri. The setup then remains favorable for what
should be a squall line pushing southeast across much of the area
Wednesday night.
Storms that initiate in the afternoon and evening will have a
decent potential for damaging wind gusts given the presence of
high theta-e differentials (25-35 Kelvin). While deep layer shear
will be on the weak side, there will be a threat for some large
hail given the expected high amounts of CAPE.
Outside of the storms, Wednesday may be the first day with a true
summer feel to it. High temperatures will make it into the lower
to middle 80s with surface dew points in the middle to perhaps
even upper 60s. This will result in heat indices getting into the
upper 80s over some areas.
Cooler weather and a drier air mass will then return to the
Ozarks to finish the work week. Models then bring another front
through the area Friday night with perhaps another quick round of
showers and thunderstorms.
The setup for late this weekend and early next week then continues
to look interesting. Global models indicate the upper level
flow becoming either westerly or west-southwesterly with several
embedded short wave troughs. This would support that front hanging
up and becoming quasi-stationary somewhere across the region. If
and where this happens, there would be an increasing risk for
heavy rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions through most of this evening. However, fog
development can be expected tonight as a warm front lifts across
the region. Visibilities could fall to around 1 mile at times.
Its also possible that a storm or two forms along this front as
well.
Otherwise look for a wind shift to the south at 0 to 7 mph through
the overnight hours.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
204 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Regional radars are continuing to show on area of showers
and thunderstorms moving northeast across far southeast Missouri into
far southern Illinois. A second area of showers and thunderstorms
are occurring over central Missouri. Both of these areas of
convection are being generated in pockets of low level moisture
convergence ahead of a shortwave trough currently entering western
MO. This trough will move across the state early this morning and
into the Ohio Valley by early this afternoon. Still cannot rule out
a few strong or possibly severe thunderstorm today, particularly
over southeast Missouri into south central Illinois, where MUCAPES
will will reach 1000-2000 J/kg and deep layer shear will reach 40-
50kts per the latest run of the RAP. Both the SPC and experimental
runs of the HRRR are showing a convective complex moving across the
central part of the CWA during the late morning and early afternoon
hours. Chances of rain behind the trough will drop off from west to
east over Missouri this afternoon as subsidence begins to set in
wake of the trough.
Temperatures today will be warmest over central MO where clouds may
break out behind the trough allowing to temperatures above normal.
Temperatures will be coolest in the east where the clouds and rain
will hold on the the longest.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Looks like tonight should be relatively quiet compared to the past
few days. Guidance has the shortwave which is currently over
eastern Kansas finally moving into the Ohio Valley by early evening
with shortwave ridging building overhead. GFS and NAM continue to
print out light QPF over southern sections of the CWFA. This looks
like it`s due to low level warm advection and moisture convergence
at 850mb. The LLJ isn`t exactly screaming over the area...only
clocking in at 10-20kts, but it`s almost directly cross-isothermal
so there`s definitely going to be some lift. Instability looks to
be confined to areas along and south of I-70...unless you believe the
NAM which conceptually just looks too unstable too far north. Still
think it`s worth a mention of isolated north of I-70 and scattered
south.
Wednesday still looks very unstable ahead of the cold front. GFS is
forecasting 2m dewpoints up into the mid and upper 60s. With
temperatures likely climbing up into the mid and upper 80s the CAPE
forecast by the models continues to be very strong. Both the GFS
and NAM are developing SBCABE values in excess of 5000 J/Kg in parts
of western and central Missouri. Even MLCAPE on both models is
topping out at 3500-4000 J/Kg. The only real limiting factor for
severe weather is lack of strong deep-layer shear with 0-6km only
around 20-30kts in the afternoon. That being said, with that amount
of instability there shouldn`t be any trouble getting a severe MCS
going over western Missouri which will move east through the
afternoon and evening. Instability drops after sunset, but MUCAPE
still stays up in the 1500-2000 J/Kg range. Don`t think the
thunderstorm threat will totally end until the front pushes through
Thursday morning. The front is a little slower than what I saw on
my model runs yesterday. Slight chance PoPs were added back to the
forecast on Thursday morning over southeast zones for a few hours by
yesterday`s day crew...and will bump up even a bit more to chance
based on the newest guidance.
High pressure will build south across the area Thursday and we
should be cooler and drier for most of Thursday into Friday. Another
shortwave will move across the Midwest in northwest flow aloft late
Friday and Friday night. This will send a reinforcing cold front
south into the area. Latest models are faster with this front than
yesterday mornings runs. Front is all the way through Missouri into
Arkansas by early Saturday morning where yesterday the front didn`t
pass through until Saturday afternoon/evening. Have therefore
shifted PoPs back 12 hours to Friday night. Another surface high
will move across the region Saturday night through Sunday morning.
Return flow develops quickly as the surface ridge moves into the
southeastern CONUS. The flow aloft becomes more zonal with a low
level baroclinic zone setting up south of the region near the
Missouri/Arkansas border. 850mb flow from the south should bring
plenty of moisture back up into the baroclinic zone which will bring
rain back to the region...most likely later in the day Sunday and
into Sunday night and Monday. Below normal temperatures look likely
in the medium range due to the northwest flow and increasing chances
for rain Sunday and Monday.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016
Showers, thunderstorms have moved out of taf sites. So just some
lingering MVFR cigs for KUIN and KCPS that should lift to VFR by
20z. Otherwise, south to southwest winds to become light and
variable after 00z Wednesday. Warm front to setup over forecast
area on Wednesday morning with winds becoming southeasterly
towards mid morning.
Specifics for KSTL:
Showers, thunderstorms have moved out of metro area. So just some
lingering MVFR cigs at KCPS that should lift to VFR by 20z.
Otherwise, southwest winds to become light and variable after 02z
Wednesday. Warm front to setup over forecast area on Wednesday
morning with winds becoming southeasterly by 16z Wednesday then
veer to the southwest with thunderstorms developing ahead of next
system. Timing and coverage hard to pin down, so just have
vicinity ts at KSTL after 21z Wednesday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
231 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THU...
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE BASED ON RADAR AND WATER VAPOR OVERLAYS
AND TRENDS. BOTH PRODUCTS SHOWED A DRY SLOT MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. CENTER OF THE LOW HAS STALLED OVER THE
GARFIELD/ROSEBUD COUNTY LINE. GFS, NAM, AND RAP PRODUCTS SEEM TO
SYNCED UP VERY WELL TODAY WITH LOW AND DRY SLOT AND ARE CARRYING
IT NORTHEAST FROM HERE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
AND CONTINUING THE RAINFALL TO THE WEST OF IT FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MDOT CAMERAS ARE STILL SHOWING FREEZING LEVELS LOW ENOUGH THAT
SNOW HAS ACCUMULATED AT LUFTBUROUGH HILL AND MALTASOUTH. HOWEVER
RADAR TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES PREDICTIONS SHOULD BEGIN
TRANSITIONING ANY NEW PRECIPITATION BACK INTO RAIN SLOWLY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WHILE NO CGS HAVE BEEN EVIDENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST... MODELS
CONTINUE TO PLACE SOME CAPE ACROSS THESE AREAS OF THE CWA AND THE
DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH IS FORCING SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS OUT JUST
AHEAD OF IT SO THE POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS.
THE GLASGOW AREAS HAS BEEN THE MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL IMPACT WITH
2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN AND THIS TREND WITH AREAS WEST IN THE CWA
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH THE LOW AT ITS WEST MOST POSITIONING AND
MOVING NORTHEAST, THIS WILL FORM A NEW TROWAL EXTENDING NORTH/SOUTH
FROM PHILLIPS COUNTY THROUGH THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER. THIS WILL
FORCE A LOOKOUT FOR AREAL FLOODING TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY... AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA IT IS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE THE TROWAL OFF TO THE EAST AND WITH THE
RAINSHOWERS QUICKLY FOLLOWING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... CLEARING WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT
LEADING TO TEMPERATURE DROP OFFS NEAR FREEZING FOR AREAS THAT SEE
CLEAR SKIES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AS
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST A NEW SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH A A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GAH
.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH TUE...
AFTERNOON UPDATE...
MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TODAY ONLY TO THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND DIRECTS THE
NEXT PUSH OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE MOST ACCUMULATION FOR OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES. INCREASED POPS TO LINE UP WITH THE BEST MODEL
CONSENSUS.
THE SMALLER-SCALE DISTURBANCES RETREAT FURTHER NORTHWARD AND
MERGE WITH THE LARGER HUDSON BAY LOW WHILE A SMALL-SCALE SHORT-
WAVE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS SYSTEMS ARE SET TO IMPACT NORTHEAST MONTANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUT ITS PROGRESSION WILL
BE SLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MONTANA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST A LITTLE RAINFALL FROM THIS FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND...BUT SO
FAR IT LOOKS AS IF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO OUR
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WITH A RIDGE SET UP TO OUR WEST AND A RATHER DEEP LOW OVER
ONTARIO.
HICKFORD
&&
.AVIATION...
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM...STALLED OVER EASTERN MONTANA...WILL ALLOW
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE
RAIN. EXPECT THE RAIN TO FINALLY CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT VARYING WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS.
BMICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...GARFIELD...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PETROLEUM.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE NC
AND VA BORDER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIP BACK SOUTH INTO
NORTHEAST NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM TUESDAY...
12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN AND A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NJ. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS MOVED TO THE VA TIDEWATER REGION...WITH A
PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER NC AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING THROUGH THE MO VALLEY. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMATTERING
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA...SO THERE SO
SHOULD BE GOOD HEATING POTENTIAL...WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S GIVEN DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO AROUND H85..PER
NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. THE RAP SHOWS AN AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY
(WHICH ALREADY EXISTS IN THE FORM OF 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE)
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SLOWLY MIXES BACK TO THE NORTH. HI-RES
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS SOME CONVECTION WILL DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE AXIS AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE (GIVEN NO OTHER LARGER SCALE LIFT). DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS 30-35KT...ENHANCED NEAR THE FRONT...SO THE
CAPER/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE COULD SUPPORT A STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE
STORM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCE IS LOW AND COVERAGE WOULD BE
VERY ISOLATED WITHOUT BETTER FORCING. A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY
LINGER NEAR THE VA BORDER OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 259 AM TUESDAY...
THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY INTO VA MAY STILL AFFECT NORTHERN AREAS EARLY IN THE
DAY. OTHERWISE... THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL
NC DURING PEAK HEATING WHICH WOULD AID IN SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL CARRY WITH 50-60
POP WITH 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH QPF MOST AREAS... WITH LOCALLY 1 INCH
TOTALS. HIGHS IN THE 80S (NEAR 90 SOUTH).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD WILL BE A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT`S PROGGED TO CROSS THE MIDWEST THU AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI. SHORT WAVE RIDGING JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF REDUCTION IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME
THU...BUT LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE THU NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
CROSSES THE TN VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME FRI...A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS THE ASSOC TROUGH AXIS AND
SFC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE BULK SHEAR IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE ON FRI...THE BEST INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION
POTENTIAL...SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY EAST OF THE US-1 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL THU AND FRI IN THE
PREFRONTAL AIRMASS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER WITH A DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS MOVING INTO OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE LATE-WEEK TROUGH.
IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE QUICK ON THE HEELS OF
FRIDAY`S TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
LATE SAT...BUT LOOKS LIKE THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR WEATHER. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO BE NEAR- TO PERHAPS A
FEW DEG BELOW NORMAL.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN ELONGATED CLOSED MID/UPR LOW WILL TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...THUS PROMOTING A
FLATTENED SW FLOW OVER OUR REGION. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE BEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SFC BOUNDARY FEATURES TO OUR NORTH FOR AT
LEAST MONDAY. ANY SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THIS PATTERN WOULD MEAN A MUCH
WETTER FORECAST FOR OUR AREA. OVERALL...FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
THIS PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT
HAS SHIFTED BACK NORTH OF CENTRAL NC TODAY...WITH A SOUTH OR
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AREAWIDE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE VA
BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THE TAF SITES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING GENERALLY
WEST TO EAST...AND MORE LIKELY AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK..LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SLIPS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN. THE FRONT WILL
LINGER IN THE AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOSTLY PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/22
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1201 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH 1630 UTC SHOW A TREND FOR
THINNING CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. OVERALL...THE 12-15 UTC CAM HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES SUGGEST
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DRY SLOT WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL CO-LOCATE WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS UNCHANGED...AND LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CAN WARM FROM SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA BASED ON THINNING CLOUD COVER. IF TEMPERATURES CAN CLIMB
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL THREAT WOULD
INCREASE. FINALLY...NEAR WIND ADVISORY GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS GRADIENT WINDS
INCREASE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 13 UTC. THE CONDITIONAL MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS UNCHANGED AND DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY/FAR
THE DRY SLOT IS ABLE TO PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA...AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND UNTIL
15 UTC GIVEN ADVECTION/UPSLOPE-AIDED FOG THAT IS BEING REPORTED BY
SEVERAL ASOS/AWOS SITES FROM HETTINGER UP TO WILLISTON AND MINOT.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO TODAY/S FORECAST.
THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE STORMS AND A VERY CONDITIONAL
RISK OF WEAK TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY.
THE BACKGROUND PATTERN WITH A 500-MB LOW IN SOUTHEAST MT AND A
SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST MT WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH
EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL ND IS A RATHER
CLOSE FIT TO THE COLD CORE TORNADO COMPOSITE CHART. HOWEVER...IT
IS NOT CLEAR THAT INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ACTUAL TORNADO POTENTIAL. RECENT RAP MODEL RUNS
HAVE SHOWN 0-3-KM SBCAPE PEAKING AT ABOUT 150 J/KG AND 0-1 KM VGP
VALUES ONLY AROUND 0.1. RESEARCH SUGGESTS MEDIAN VALUES OF 0-3-KM
SBCAPE OF 210 J/KG AND 0-1-KM VGP VALUES OF 0.4 FOR COLD CORE
TORNADO EVENTS...WHICH SUGGESTS TODAY/S ENVIRONMENT COULD END UP
FALLING SHORT OF THE NEEDED LOW-LEVEL CAPE/VORTICITY SETTING THAT
IS NEEDED FOR THESE TYPE OF EVENTS. THE 06 UTC NAM REMAINS MORE
ROBUST WITH BOTH 0-3-KM SBCAPE AND 0-1-KM VGP THAN THE REMAINDER
OF GUIDANCE...BUT IT HAS LOWERED VALUES A BIT WHEN COMPARED TO ITS
00 UTC RUN...AND IT MAY BE OVERDOING AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SOMEWHAT
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM IN NEB AND SD AT 1145 UTC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND STRENGTH OF WINDS.
CURRENTLY...THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS HAD MERGED INTO ONE - CENTERED
OVER MONTANA/WYOMING. ONE OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WAS ALONG THE CENTRAL BORDER OF ND/SD AND MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD...ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD IN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA.
FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTENSIFYING THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN MONTANA TODAY AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED SURFACE LOW BENEATH
IT. AS THE STACKED SYSTEM INTENSIFIES IT LIFTS NORTHWARD...AND A DRY
SLOT DEVELOPS THAT PUNCHES INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 60 KNOTS. A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING/ARCING SOUTHEASTWARD LIFTS NORTHWARD SUPPORTED BY
THE DRY SLOT. THE MODELS INDICATE A THINK BAND OF ELEVATED CAPE
ALONG THE ARC OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THE BAND OF ELEVATED CAPE IS
COINCIDENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER BULK SHEAR
VALUES...GIVING CONFIDENCE THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE TIMING OF THIS WOULD BE MAINLY
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND BE MAINLY IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS.
REGARDING WINDS TODAY...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
LIFTING LOW LEVEL TROUGH AT 15 TO 25 MPH. BEHIND THE TROUGH AND
COINCIDENT WITH THE DRY SLOT IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP.
TONIGHT THE CENTER OF THE STACKED SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
WEST WINDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LATER SHIFTS
MAY ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR STRONG WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
POTENTIAL FROST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND IS THE MAIN MESSAGE IN THE LONG TERM.
ON THE LARGE SCALE...MEAN NORTHWEST 500-MB FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RELATIVELY DEEP
HUDSON BAY LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INTRUSIONS
OF COOLER CANADIAN/CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR INTO THE REGION AND THAT
IN TURN FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY
THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND GUIDANCE WE USED TO BUILD
THE FORECAST. THE 00 UTC GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS BASIC THEME DESPITE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTIONS OVER CANADA AND THUS
THE DEPTH AND SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW. FROST
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN ND...AND
WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO MORE OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE WILL LIKELY NEED SEVERAL FROST HEADLINES /ADVISORIES/ BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE 00 UTC GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICTIONS OF SURFACE RIDGING AND STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM
BOTH OF THOSE MODELS...FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING MAY BE THE
CANDIDATE FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING FROST.
IN FACT...THE 00 UTC GFS-BASED MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST ND COULD HAVE A BONAFIDE FREEZE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS DURING THAT TIME FRAME THAT THE GFS MEX
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A LOW OF 28 F AT HETTINGER...AND THE WARMEST
MEMBER OF THE 00 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MOS SUITE IS ONLY 32 F THEN.
OTHERWISE...WE DO HAVE SOME SHOWER CHANCES SHOWN IN THE FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE
OFFERED SOME AGREEMENT ON WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
LIFR/IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR RANGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY. MORNING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR OVERTAKES MUCH OF THE AREA
BEHIND AN OCCLUDED FRONT. HOWEVER...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL ENTER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KDIK LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
628 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
620 PM UPDATE...MCS IS ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY AND I HAVE
INCREASED POP ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AS INCREASED
THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. CURRENTLY THE STORMS HAVE BEEN
BORDERLINE SEVERE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL OCCUR. WITH THE SUN GOING DOWN WE EXPECT STORMS TO
WEAKEN A BIT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING DECENT
INSTABILITY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH CAPE VALUES OF 500 - 1000 J/KG
AND WITH ARRIVAL OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING OUR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES JUMP TO ABOUT 7C/KM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS.
5 PM UPDATE...INCREASED POP AND ADDED MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RATHER COMPLICATED PATTERN LASTS INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SHALLOW WARM FRONT ACROSS WV AND KY...ALIGNED
MORE OR LESS IN AN EAST- WEST FASHION. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER KY
IS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG FRONT AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS AREA
FOR PRECIP AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. COULD SEE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF
KY...TRACKING INTO WV LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE A MODEST
ADJUSTMENT TO POPS...TOWARDS THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO BE BE
LATCHING INTO THIS IDEA. CARRIED THUNDER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE
GRIDS AS WELL...WITH A BREAK EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND DIURNAL UPSWING
FOR WED. USED A MODEL BLEND FOR NEAR TERM TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT EXITS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. GOOD WAA AND INSTABILITY INCREASES AS ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STORM FORMATION IS A GOOD BE OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXITS ON
FRIDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. SOILS ARE MOIST
TO WET AND SOME OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR WATER
PROBLEMS. THE ONLY GOOD THING MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING
ALONG AND THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RAINFALL AFFECTS OVER THE AREA.
WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND STARTS TO BRIEFLY DRY US OUT.
GENERALLY KEPT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUICK PROGRESSION OF WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS
AS YET ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE ON TIMING AND POSITION OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY...
WARM FRONT SLIDING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IN FORECAST AREA EXPECTED
TO START THE PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS OF ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TO OUR WEST
WHERE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS WORKING ACROSS KY ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
AREA HAS SERVED AS A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD
SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS AREA OF CONVECTION REACHES
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA THEN CIGS AND VISBY DECREASE...GENERALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFT 00Z HAVE MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS...IN LINE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE...THEN BRING IFR INTO KEKN FOR A SHORT WHILE...AGAIN IN
LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES. CURRENT THINKING IS CONVECTION
MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED...AND LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY VARY DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION. COULD SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M L M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN WITH A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC/MPK
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
502 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
5 PM UPDATE...INCREASED POP AND ADDED MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RATHER COMPLICATED PATTERN LASTS INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SHALLOW WARM FRONT ACROSS WV AND KY...ALIGNED
MORE OR LESS IN AN EAST- WEST FASHION. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER KY
IS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG FRONT AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS AREA
FOR PRECIP AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. COULD SEE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF
KY...TRACKING INTO WV LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE A MODEST
ADJUSTMENT TO POPS...TOWARDS THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO BE BE
LATCHING INTO THIS IDEA. CARRIED THUNDER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE
GRIDS AS WELL...WITH A BREAK EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND DIURNAL UPSWING
FOR WED. USED A MODEL BLEND FOR NEAR TERM TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT EXITS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. GOOD WAA AND INSTABILITY INCREASES AS ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STORM FORMATION IS A GOOD BE OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXITS ON
FRIDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. SOILS ARE MOIST
TO WET AND SOME OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR WATER
PROBLEMS. THE ONLY GOOD THING MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING
ALONG AND THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RAINFALL AFFECTS OVER THE AREA.
WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND STARTS TO BRIEFLY DRY US OUT.
GENERALLY KEPT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUICK PROGRESSION OF WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS
AS YET ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE ON TIMING AND POSITION OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY...
WARM FRONT SLIDING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IN FORECAST AREA EXPECTED
TO START THE PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS OF ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TO OUR WEST
WHERE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS WORKING ACROSS KY ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
AREA HAS SERVED AS A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD
SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS AREA OF CONVECTION REACHES
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA THEN CIGS AND VISBY DECREASE...GENERALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFT 00Z HAVE MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS...IN LINE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE...THEN BRING IFR INTO KEKN FOR A SHORT WHILE...AGAIN IN
LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES. CURRENT THINKING IS CONVECTION
MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED...AND LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY VARY DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION. COULD SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN WITH A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC/MPK
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
423 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOLLOWING
BEHIND ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THESE FRONTS...COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF CONVECTION RIDING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A H5 S/W. THE CONVECTION WILL WORK ACROSS THE FA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...PUSHING THIS INITIAL SURGE THRU THEN BRINGING ANOTHER
WAVE UP AROUND 00Z ASSOCIATED WITH MORE ENERGY EJECTING UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THAT WAVE WILL AFFECT THE MAINLY SRN SECTIONS.
PCPN WILL THEN BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN FROM W TO E AFTER 03Z.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. CANT
RULE OUT SOMETHING ISOLATED POPPING UP...SO CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN A LITTLE. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
CDFNT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GOOD WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL PUSH HIGHS THURSDAY INTO THE
UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DEPARTS EAST.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING SWIFTLY ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
BEFORE THE WAVE SCOOTS EASTWARD. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH A NARROW
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING PRECIP CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WENT CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND WHICH SHOWS
A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIDAY
WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. READINGS
WILL EXHIBIT A COOLING TREND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS HOVERING
AROUND 60. LOOK FOR A REBOUND BACK NEAR 70 BY TUESDAY UNDER MODEST
WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT E/NE THROUGH THE
FCST AREA THROUGH THE AFT AND EVE. SHOWERS WILL MOVE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KCVG AND KLUK THROUGH 00Z.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUBSEQUENT ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO AREA THIS AFT AND EVE. MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS AND
LOWERING OF CIGS IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
MORE LIMITED FOR KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND PRECEDING PRECIPITATION. DID INCLUDE
THUNDER FOR KCVG...AND KLUK... AS ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR SECONDARY ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR ALL TERMINALS.
AFTER 06Z... INSTABILITY WILL WANE AND FORCING WILL WEAKEN...
THEREFORE EXPECT THAT SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALL TERMINALS... ALLOWING FOR MVFR
CIGS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE RIGHT NOW. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS AND MIST BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
229 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RATHER COMPLICATED PATTERN LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SHALLOW
WARM FRONT ACROSS WV AND KY...ALIGNED MORE OR LESS IN AN EAST-
WEST FASHION. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER KY IS TRACKING EASTWARD
ALONG FRONT AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS AREA FOR PRECIP AND
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. COULD SEE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF KY...TRACKING
INTO WV LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE A MODEST ADJUSTMENT TO
POPS...TOWARDS THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO BE BE LATCHING INTO THIS
IDEA. CARRIED THUNDER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE GRIDS AS WELL...WITH
A BREAK EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND DIURNAL UPSWING FOR WED. USED A
MODEL BLEND FOR NEAR TERM TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT EXITS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. GOOD WAA AND INSTABILITY INCREASES AS ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STORM FORMATION IS A GOOD BE OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXITS ON
FRIDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE ASSOCICATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. SOILS ARE MOIST
TO WET AND SOME OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR WATER
PROBLEMS. THE ONLY GOOD THING MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING
ALONG AND THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RAINFALL AFFECTS OVER THE AREA.
WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND STARTS TO BRIEFLY DRY US OUT.
GENERALLY KEPT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUICK PROGRESSION OF WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS
AS YET ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE ON TIMING AND POSITION OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY...
WARM FRONT SLIDING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IN FORECAST AREA EXPECTED
TO START THE PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS OF ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TO OUR WEST
WHERE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS WORKING ACROSS KY ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
AREA HAS SERVED AS A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD
SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS AREA OF CONVECTION REACHES
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA THEN CIGS AND VISBY DECREASE...GENERALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFT 00Z HAVE MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS...IN LINE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE...THEN BRING IFR INTO KEKN FOR A SHORT WHILE...AGAIN IN
LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES. CURRENT THINKING IS CONVECTION
MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED...AND LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY VARY DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION. COULD SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN WITH A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
156 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RATHER COMPLICATED PATTERN LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SHALLOW
WARM FRONT ACROSS WV AND KY...ALIGNED MORE OR LESS IN AN EAST-
WEST FASHION. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER KY IS TRACKING EASTWARD
ALONG FRONT AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS AREA FOR PRECIP AND
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. COULD SEE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF KY...TRACKING
INTO WV LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE A MODEST ADJUSTMENT TO
POPS...TOWARDS THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO BE BE LATCHING INTO THIS
IDEA. CARRIED THUNDER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE GRIDS AS WELL...WITH
A BREAK EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND DIURNAL UPSWING FOR WED. USED A
MODEL BLEND FOR NEAR TERM TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD FEATURES INCREASING WARMTH...MOISTURE AND THUS
INSTABILITY...UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF RIPPLES WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH CROSSES THURSDAY MORNING. THE NAM APPEARS TO HAVE A
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE WITH STRONG LIFT RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF
HIGH QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN WV WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY FARTHER NORTH PER GFS
SOLUTION WHERE A LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CREATES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW.
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE UNSTABLE AIR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS BOUNDARIES ARE LIKELY TO GET LEFT
BEHIND FROM THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM AND ITS RAINFALL. OTHERWISE
FORCING BECOMES WEAK TO NEGATIVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN
DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT SUGGESTS THE AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY SETS UP OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH UP TO 2 KJ/KG CAPE
PROGGED THERE BUT JUST ABOUT 20 KTS OF VEERING FLOW...SPC MARGINAL
RISK LOOKS GOOD.
STABILITY INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THE CHANCE / STRENGTH OF
THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...ALTHOUGH AREA COVERAGE OF RAINFALL WARRANTS CONTINUED
LIKELY POPS. THE NAM SLOWS THE FRONT LATE...AND STILL HAS IT NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST IN COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES MORE CLOSELY REFLECTS THE GFS TIMING...WITH
SHOWERS PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING.
GENERALLY RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD IN LIGHT
OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUICK PROGRESSION OF WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD AND EXIT THE REGION BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL BE ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN LINE WITH BRINGING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. BUT YET ANOTHER SYSTEM IS POISED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY...
WARM FRONT SLIDING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IN FORECAST AREA EXPECTED
TO START THE PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS OF ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TO OUR WEST
WHERE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS WORKING ACROSS KY ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
AREA HAS SERVED AS A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD
SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS AREA OF CONVECTION REACHES
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA THEN CIGS AND VISBY DECREASE...GENERALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFT 00Z HAVE MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS...IN LINE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE...THEN BRING IFR INTO KEKN FOR A SHORT WHILE...AGAIN IN
LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES. CURRENT THINKING IS CONVECTION
MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED...AND LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY VARY DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION. COULD SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN WITH A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
540 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN TO OUT SOUTH THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS AND CROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
GENERALLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO SE /WITHIN THE
285-290K THETA CHANNEL/ WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN PLENTY OF THICK
CLOUDS AND A FEW AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SLIDING NE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE MTNS NE OF KIPT
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SFC CFRONT
/OVER LAKE ONTARIO AT 18Z/ DROPS SE LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. MEAN SFC-900 MB FLOW ACRS THE NE ZONES WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THESE FEATURES
SLIDE SE ACROSS THE ENDLESS MTNS REGION OF NCENT AND NE PENN.
THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIP THE 22-05Z PERIOD AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT SHARPENS...PRIOR TO ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING EAST FROM THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
THE MAIN IMPACT AREA FOR SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT WILL BE
CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SCENT MTNS... WHERE UP
TO AROUND ONE- TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFL IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW
SPOTS. MOST PLACES SHOULD ESCAPE WITH LESS QPF THAN THAT.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH 00Z WED TO BE FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH AT BEST NEAR AND JUST TO THE SW OF A LINE FROM
KBFD...TO KUNV AND KSEG. THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE CWA SHOULDN`T
SEE MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
LAURELS WILL RECEIVE APPROX ANOTHER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAIN...AS LLVLS MOISTEN UP WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE
40S...AND SOME BRIEF/MDT RAIN ACCOMPANIES SMALL AREAS OF 35-40 DBZ
RADAR REFL.
MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED IN THE 21Z-23Z PERIOD TODAY
AS THE CURRENT LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD DEPICTED ON REGION 88D MOSAIC
LOOP GRADUALLY DISSOLVES.
LOW TEMPS EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40F ACROSS THE FAR
NE...TO AROUND 50F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. SHOULD SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT LLVL DRYING/CLEARING PUSH
INTO OUR FAR NE ZONES...TEMPS COULD COOL OFF BY ANOTHER 3-5 DEG F
WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL PIVOT TO A NW-SE ORIENTATION
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE
SRN MID ATLANTIC...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER INTERIOR
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
LATEST 09Z SREF...12Z OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS AND HRRR MODEL BLEND
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SW 1/3 OF THE AREA FOR GREATEST RISK OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN...WILL BE CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH WITH JUST
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY DRIZZLE AND A FEW STRAY ISOLATED SHOWERS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS WED.
THE LACK OF RAINFALL IN MOST PLACES WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO BE ABOUT 8-12 DEG F MILDER THAN TODAY /TUESDAY/.
THERE WILL BE A VERY NARROW TEMP RANGE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE 3-6F BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE EAST...BUT NEAR NORMAL /LOWER TO MID 60S/ ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPTATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN PA
FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING A STRIPE OF 0.25+
INCH QPF. TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO MODERATE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS AROUND 70F BY THURSDAY.
MAX POPS ARE ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA BY 00Z SAT. FROPA TIMING WOULD FAVOR
THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF
TSTMS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THIS WEEKEND WITH SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT FCST TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
BOUNDARY GETS WITH THE GFS RETURNING RAIN TO THE AREA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DESPITE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN PATTERN...ODDS ARE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL SAT-SUN. SUNDAY LOOKS
LIKE CHILLIEST DAY THIS WEEKEND AND CANT RULE OUT FROST POTENTIAL.
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAN...COOL...AND STABLE AIR HAS RESULTED IN GOOD VISIBILITY
AND VFR CIGS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CIG AT AOO LOWER...BUT
OTHERWISE CIGS ARE AROUND 9000 FEET. FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE AND
LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE NY BORDER. STRONGER THUNDERSTORM SE OH
BUT A MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS IS OUT THERE...AND
THIS STORM HAS WEAKEN THE LAST FEW MINUTES.
21Z TAFS ADJUSTED FOR THE GOOD CONDITIONS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL BATTLE A WARM
FRONT...TRYING TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE INVOF
KJST. MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE
WRN MTN TAF SITES TONIGHT...AS THE MOIST /ALBEIT RATHER WEAK/
EAST TO SERLY LLVL FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 09Z SREF
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 85 PERCENT OR HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR CIGS BELOW
1000 FT AGL FROM NEAR KUNV TO KJST AND KAOO.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR OR LOW END VFR WILL OCCUR DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWERS OR
EVEN A FEW PERIODS OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BRUSH
ACROSS THE SW HALF TO ONE THIRD OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...LOW CIGS POSSIBLE KJST/KAOO...MAINLY AM.
FRI...SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS /MAINLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENN/ AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE STATE. LOW
CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.
SAT-SUN...BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA AS A
FEW SFC COLD FRONTS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROP SE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
401 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN TO OUT SOUTH THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS AND CROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
GENERALLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO SE /WITHIN THE
285-290K THETA CHANNEL/ WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN PLENTY OF THICK
CLOUDS AND A FEW AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SLIDING NE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE MTNS NE OF KIPT
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SFC CFRONT
/OVER LAKE ONTARIO AT 18Z/ DROPS SE LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. MEAN SFC-900 MB FLOW ACRS THE NE ZONES WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THESE FEATURES
SLIDE SE ACROSS THE ENDLESS MTNS REGION OF NCENT AND NE PENN.
THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIP THE 22-05Z PERIOD AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT SHARPENS...PRIOR TO ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING EAST FROM THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
THE MAIN IMPACT AREA FOR SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT WILL BE
CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SCENT MTNS... WHERE UP
TO AROUND ONE- TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFL IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW
SPOTS. MOST PLACES SHOULD ESCAPE WITH LESS QPF THAN THAT.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH 00Z WED TO BE FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH AT BEST NEAR AND JUST TO THE SW OF A LINE FROM
KBFD...TO KUNV AND KSEG. THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE CWA SHOULDN`T
SEE MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
LAURELS WILL RECEIVE APPROX ANOTHER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAIN...AS LLVLS MOISTEN UP WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE
40S...AND SOME BRIEF/MDT RAIN ACCOMPANIES SMALL AREAS OF 35-40 DBZ
RADAR REFL.
MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED IN THE 21Z-23Z PERIOD TODAY
AS THE CURRENT LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD DEPICTED ON REGION 88D MOSAIC
LOOP GRADUALLY DISSOLVES.
LOW TEMPS EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40F ACROSS THE FAR
NE...TO AROUND 50F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. SHOULD SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT LLVL DRYING/CLEARING PUSH
INTO OUR FAR NE ZONES...TEMPS COULD COOL OFF BY ANOTHER 3-5 DEG F
WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL PIVOT TO A NW-SE ORIENTATION
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE
SRN MID ATLANTIC...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER INTERIOR
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
LATEST 09Z SREF...12Z OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS AND HRRR MODEL BLEND
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SW 1/3 OF THE AREA FOR GREATEST RISK OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN...WILL BE CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH WITH JUST
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY DRIZZLE AND A FEW STRAY ISOLATED SHOWERS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS WED.
THE LACK OF RAINFALL IN MOST PLACES WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO BE ABOUT 8-12 DEG F MILDER THAN TODAY /TUESDAY/.
THERE WILL BE A VERY NARROW TEMP RANGE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE 3-6F BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE EAST...BUT NEAR NORMAL /LOWER TO MID 60S/ ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPTATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN PA
FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING A STRIPE OF 0.25+
INCH QPF. TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO MODERATE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS AROUND 70F BY THURSDAY.
MAX POPS ARE ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA BY 00Z SAT. FROPA TIMING WOULD FAVOR
THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF
TSTMS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THIS WEEKEND WITH SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT FCST TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
BOUNDARY GETS WITH THE GFS RETURNING RAIN TO THE AREA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DESPITE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN PATTERN...ODDS ARE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL SAT-SUN. SUNDAY LOOKS
LIKE CHILLIEST DAY THIS WEEKEND AND CANT RULE OUT FROST POTENTIAL.
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL BATTLE A WARM
FRONT...TRYING TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE INVOF
KJST. MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE
WRN MTN TAF SITES TONIGHT...AS THE MOIST /ALBEIT RATHER WEAK/
EAST TO SERLY LLVL FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 09Z SREF
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 85 PERCENT OR HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR CIGS BELOW
1000 FT AGL FROM NEAR KUNV TO KJST AND KAOO.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR OR LOW END VFR WILL OCCUR DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWERS OR
EVEN A FEW PERIODS OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BRUSH
ACROSS THE SW HALF TO ONE THIRD OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...LOW CIGS POSSIBLE KJST/KAOO...MAINLY AM.
FRI...SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS /MAINLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENN/ AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE STATE. LOW
CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.
SAT-SUN...BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA AS A
FEW SFC COLD FRONTS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROP SE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
248 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN TO OUT SOUTH THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS AND CROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GENERALLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO SE /WITHIN THE
285-290K THETA CHANNEL/ WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN PLENTY OF THICK
CLOUDS AND A FEW AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SLIDING NE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE MTNS NE OF KIPT
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SFC CFRONT
/OVER LAKE ONTARIO AT 18Z/ DROPS SE LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. MEAN SFC-900 MB FLOW ACRS THE NE ZONES WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THESE FEATURES
SLIDE SE ACROSS THE ENDLESS MTNS REGION OF NCENT AND NE PENN.
THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIP THE 22-05Z PERIOD AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT SHARPENS...PRIOR TO ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING EAST FROM THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
THE MAIN IMPACT AREA FOR SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT WILL BE
CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SCENT MTNS... WHERE UP
TO AROUND ONE- TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFL IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW
SPOTS. MOST PLACES SHOULD ESCAPE WITH LESS QPF THAN THAT.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH 00Z WED TO BE FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH AT BEST NEAR AND JUST TO THE SW OF A LINE FROM
KBFD...TO KUNV AND KSEG. THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE CWA SHOULDN`T
SEE MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
LAURELS WILL RECEIVE APPROX ANOTHER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAIN...AS LLVLS MOISTEN UP WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE
40S...AND SOME BRIEF/MDT RAIN ACCOMPANIES SMALL AREAS OF 35-40 DBZ
RADAR REFL.
MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED IN THE 21Z-23Z PERIOD TODAY
AS THE CURRENT LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD DEPICTED ON REGION 88D MOSAIC
LOOP GRADUALLY DISSOLVES.
LOW TEMPS EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40F ACROSS THE FAR
NE...TO AROUND 50F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. SHOULD SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT LLVL DRYING/CLEARING PUSH
INTO OUR FAR NE ZONES...TEMPS COULD COOL OFF BY ANOTHER 3-5 DEG F
WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL PIVOT TO A NW-SE ORIENTATION
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE
SRN MID ATLANTIC...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER INTERIOR
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
LATEST 09Z SREF...12Z OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS AND HRRR MODEL BLEND
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SW 1/3 OF THE AREA FOR GREATEST RISK OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN...WILL BE CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH WITH JUST
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY DRIZZLE AND A FEW STRAY ISOLATED SHOWERS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS WED.
THE LACK OF RAINFALL IN MOST PLACES WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO BE ABOUT 8-12 DEG F MILDER THAN TODAY /TUESDAY/.
THERE WILL BE A VERY NARROW TEMP RANGE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE 3-6F BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE EAST...BUT NEAR NORMAL /LOWER TO MID 60S/ ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALONG/WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL MENTION CHC THUNDER WEST OF RT219.
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN PA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWING A STRIPE OF 0.25+ INCH QPF. TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO
MODERATE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS AROUND 70F BY
THURSDAY.
MAX POPS ARE ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS? ALONG THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA BY 00Z SAT. FROPA TIMING WOULD
FAVOR THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF
TSTMS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS THIS WEEKEND WITH SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT FCST TO
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS BOUNDARY GETS WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON RETURNING RAIN TO
THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN
PATTERN...ODDS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL
SAT-SUN. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE CHILLIEST DAY THIS WEEKEND AND CANT
RULE OUT FROST POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL BATTLE A WARM
FRONT...TRYING TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE INVOF
KJST. MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE
WRN MTN TAF SITES TONIGHT...AS THE MOIST /ALBEIT RATHER WEAK/
EAST TO SERLY LLVL FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 09Z SREF
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 85 PERCENT OR HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR CIGS BELOW
1000 FT AGL FROM NEAR KUNV TO KJST AND KAOO.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR OR LOW END VFR WILL OCCUR DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWERS OR
EVEN A FEW PERIODS OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BRUSH
ACROSS THE SW HALF TO ONE THIRD OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...LOW CIGS POSSIBLE KJST/KAOO...MAINLY AM.
FRI...SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS /MAINLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENN/ AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE STATE. LOW
CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.
SAT-SUN...BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA AS A
FEW SFC COLD FRONTS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROP SE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
CONTINUE TO WATCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL CONVECTION ALONG IT. CELLS HAVE POPPED UP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD INTO NEB...BUT OVER OUT CWA THINGS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH...HI RES
MODELS DO SHOW SOME UPTICK OVER OUR AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...WILL JUST BE A MATTER OF HOW WIDESPREAD THINGS ARE AND HOW DEEP
ANY CONVECTION IS. HRRR SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THINGS COMPARED TO
OTHER HI RES MODELS. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BEST CAPE VALUES
FROM ABOUT HURON TO MILLER AND POINTS SOUTH. OVERALL BULK SHEAR IS
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE WITH HIGHEST VALUES WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NONETHELESS...STILL ENOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
TO BRING A THREAT FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK MOSTLY DRY BUT COULD STILL BE
DEALING WITH SOME DEPARTING PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA IN THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ND. CONDITIONS MAY FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY OVER THE WEST RIVER
COUNTIES SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR...BUT IT APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL AT
THIS POINT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS CONFINED TO NORTHWEST SD.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN. INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WESTERN CWA BASED
ON 850 MB TEMPS AND GOOD MIXING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS LOOK MOSTLY
QUIET.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
THE PERIOD OPENS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SFC LOW PRESSURE. AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
AROUND THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SATURDAY
WILL DRY CONDITIONS OUT SOMEWHAT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE AT THE FAR END
OF THE PERIOD WHEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S ON FRIDAY ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE SHOWERS/TSTORMS THOUGH FOG IS STILL
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR EAST INCLUDING AT
KATY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
600 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...TORNADO WATCH FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL 11
PM CDT TONIGHT...
AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, EXTENDING FROM KENTUCKY INTO
NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE, WILL WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN
PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/CKV/CSV...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS COMPLETELY EXITED THE MID
STATE, WITH THE HRRR ONLY SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH TEMPS
WARMING ACCORDINGLY AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60`S, CREATING SOME
MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL PICK BACK UP
TOWARD EVENING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLES THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH TS POSSIBLE AT BNA & CKV, AND PROBABLY ONLY SHRA
AT CSV DUE TO THE LATE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE THERE.
EXPECT SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 67 85 66 87 57 / 60 40 20 60 50
CLARKSVILLE 66 85 66 82 55 / 70 30 30 60 40
CROSSVILLE 64 77 63 81 58 / 40 40 30 50 60
COLUMBIA 67 86 64 85 57 / 50 30 20 50 50
LAWRENCEBURG 67 85 64 85 58 / 50 30 20 50 50
WAVERLY 66 85 65 83 55 / 60 30 20 60 40
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......19
AVIATION........13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
335 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KY AT THIS TIME.
SOME CURVATURE AND SHEAR NOTED UPSTREAM WITH PVA WORKING INTO
NORTHWESTERN TN. LATEST MOSAIC DOES DEPICT SHOWER AND TSTM
DEVELOPMENT COMMENCING ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO.
BY FAR...THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL ACTIVITY IS UP ACROSS KY WHERE THE
12Z GFS ELUDED TOWARD AN ENHANCED AREA OF LIFT AND DEEPER MRH
LEVELS.
FOR MIDDLE TN...INSTABILITIES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG WITH
VERTICAL LIFT...PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN TN INTO THIS EVENING.
STORM TRAJECTORY SHOULD BE ENE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS MOVING
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR CWA.
MODELS DO INDICATED SOME TRAINING OF THE TSTM CELLS OVERNIGHT AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS THE
NORTH...MAINLY WEST OF OUR PLATEAU. SPEED SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT
GREAT WITH 30-35 KTS AT 850MB. LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED STRONG TO
BORDERLINE SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-40. FORCING WILL
BACK OFF A BIT AFTER 06Z SO WILL GO FROM LIKELY POPS PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MOVING FORWARD...WED AND WED NT...THE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND OUR UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH PERHAPS A FEW
KINKS WITHIN THAT FLOW. OTW...NO REAL FORCING MECHANISM SO WILL
KEEP POPS AT AROUND 30 PERCENT OR SO.
FROPA STILL EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
EVENT DOES NOT LOOK SEVERE AT THIS TIME. FORCING IS SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED AND SPEED SHEAR IS ON THE LOW SIDE. STILL
THOUGH...ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG ACTIVITY.
IN THE EXT FCST...LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SEND A
SERIES OF COOLER SFC HIGHS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA. TEMPS WILL
RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. A WARMING
TREND WILL THEN BE IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT OUR WAY AND WE WILL SEE
SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/CKV/CSV...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS COMPLETELY EXITED THE MID
STATE, WITH THE HRRR ONLY SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH TEMPS
WARMING ACCORDINGLY AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60`S, CREATING SOME
MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL PICK BACK UP
TOWARD EVENING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLES THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH TS POSSIBLE AT BNA & CKV, AND PROBABLY ONLY SHRA
AT CSV DUE TO THE LATE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE THERE.
EXPECT SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 67 85 66 87 57 / 60 40 20 60 50
CLARKSVILLE 66 85 66 82 55 / 70 30 30 60 40
CROSSVILLE 64 77 63 81 58 / 40 40 30 50 60
COLUMBIA 67 86 64 85 57 / 50 30 20 50 50
LAWRENCEBURG 67 85 64 85 58 / 50 30 20 50 50
WAVERLY 66 85 65 83 55 / 60 30 20 60 40
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1210 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE
DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH MISSOURI INTO ARKANSAS WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI DOWN ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS AHEAD OF THIS MAIN
LINE ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. GENERAL
MOVEMENT HAS BEEN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM IOWA DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. SHORT RANGE MODELS WEAKEN ACTIVITY WAS IT WORKS TOWARD
MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THINK CONVECTION DURING
THE DAY TODAY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED WITH NOTHING REALLY TO FOCUS
IT ON WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THE NORTH CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE.
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG. STRONGER AND DEEPER
OMEGA TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE WORKS ACROSS OUR AREA SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS. A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
RAMP UP THURSDAY WITH SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. MID STATE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON FRIDAY AND DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY SO BASICALLY KEPT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY EXCEPT FRIDAY
MORNING ALONG THE PLATEAU WHERE THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY TURN ZONAL WITH WEST TO
EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS TENNESSEE KEEPING AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD OF WEATHER LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. I CAN SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW THAT WILL WORK ACROSS OUR AREA SO KEPT POPS IN FORECAST
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR CHANGE IN TEMPS
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/CKV/CSV...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS COMPLETELY EXITED THE MID
STATE, WITH THE HRRR ONLY SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH TEMPS
WARMING ACCORDINGLY AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60`S, CREATING SOME
MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL PICK BACK UP
TOWARD EVENING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLES THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH TS POSSIBLE AT BNA & CKV, AND PROBABLY ONLY SHRA
AT CSV DUE TO THE LATE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE THERE.
EXPECT SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
333 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SE MONTANA WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FARTHER
SOUTH OVER TEXAS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
ALOFT AND SOME INDICATION OF A JET STREAK COMING INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS FROM THE WEST. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING
CUMULUS OVER THIS AREA AND MAY BE STARTING TO GET ENHANCED
CONVECTION OVER THE NW HILL COUNTRY. SURFACE ANALYSIS A MEANDERING
DRY LINE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IF THE DRY LINE BECOMES MORE
DEFINED. LATEST SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE HRRR
SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AND THEN PUSHING EAST OVER THE NEXT
6 HOURS. LATER RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW THIS ACTIVITY REACHING THE
BRAZOS VALLEY AROUND 9-11PM CDT (02-04Z) TONIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED TO SHOW A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT BUT
THINK THAT CAPPING MAY BE THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR MAINTAINING ANY
CONVECTION INTO SE TEXAS. WHILE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTION REACHING BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION...NEW TRENDS WITH THE
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ENOUGH TO TAKE NOTICE AND MONITOR.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER SE MONTANA MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
CANADA. THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INTO NORTH
TEXAS AND REACHES THE NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF
30-40 PERCENT. THE FRONT MAY REACH THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. DEWPOINT TEMPS MAY REACH THE LOW 60S
INSTEAD OF THE LOW 70S. SATURDAY MAY BE THE ONE NICE DAY OF THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF RATHER QUICKLY ON SUNDAY.
FINALLY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE OF THE FORECAST IT LOOKS LIKE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL NEED TO MONITORED FOR A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DROPPING FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE GFS HAS A STRONG
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL WITH 3-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 6 HOURS POSSIBLY
REACHING HUNTSVILLE TO CROCKETT SOUTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE HOUSTON AREA BUT THE ECMWF
HAS A MORE BROAD AREA THAT COULD RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A STRONGER JET STREAK. BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH DURING THIS TIME
WHICH COULD PROVIDE MORE MOISTURE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. GFS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY TOP OUT AT 1.8 INCHES WITH MAYBE AN
ISOLATED SPOT AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS IS MORE IN THE 90 TO 98TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY. THE FORECAST GOES WITH A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME MAINLY SINCE THERE IS
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS AND RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE
DETERMINED BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES HARD TO DEFINE THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE. THE POINT BEING THAT FORECAST DATA WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
OVERPECK
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THRU WEDS. WINDS/SEAS STILL RIGHT AROUND/BORDERLINE SMALL
CRAFT CAUTION FLAGS...BUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF CRITERIA...SO WILL
DROP MENTION FOR TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FUR-
THER ON THURS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO SE TX.
MODELS STILL INDICATING ITS PASSAGE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
LIGHT N/NE WINDS PROGGED BY EARLY FRI. HOWEVER WITH THE SFC HIGH
BUILDING DOWN INTO THE AREA BY FRI AFTN/EVE...THIS OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BE VERY BRIEF... AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO PREVAIL BY FRI
NIGHT. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS TO RETURN SAT...WITH INCREASED WINDS/
RAIN CHC SUN INTO MON AS DISTURBANCES IN THE SRN STREAM JET MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 71 87 70 85 68 / 30 20 20 30 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 87 71 87 70 / 20 10 10 30 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 76 80 74 81 74 / 20 10 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT KCDS AND KPVW...BUT THE
FRONT MAY STALL OUT IN THE VICINITY OF KLBB.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/
AVIATION...
VFR WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLIES NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/
SHORT TERM...
WE WILL FINALLY GET A RESPITE FROM THE WIND TODAY AS ACTIVE STORM
SYSTEMS MOVE SUFFICIENTLY DISTANT TO MITIGATE THE EFFECTS ON OUR
WEATHER...AT LEAST TO SOME EXTENT. BAROTROPIC LOW ALONG THE MT/WY
STATE LINE WILL EASE INTO MANITOBA BY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
POLAR JET SWEEPS FROM NV INTO CO THENCE INTO THE DAKOTAS.
INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL LEAD TO NOTICABLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH VALUES APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. STILL...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
CLEAR OF RECORD HIGH TEMPS AT LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS...99/104
RESPECTIVELY. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN UNDER 20
MPH AS WELL WHICH WILL BE A NICE CHANGE. ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWFA AROUND 3AM WEDNESDAY BUT
STANDS A CHANCE OF STALLING OUT. MORE ABOUT THAT IN THE LONG TERM
BELOW.
LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE FA TOMORROW AND WILL CREATE A
WIDE VARIATION IN HIGH TEMPS. AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WHILE OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE TEMPS GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S. THE FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
NEARS THE REGION. MODELS SHOW A CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE IN PLACE.
FRONTOGENETIC AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. THE BIGGEST ISSUE FROM KEEPING POPS FROM BEING
HIGHER THAN CHANCE IS THE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING THAT CAN
BE ATTAINED AS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROF REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON
THURSDAY...LOW/MID 70S...AS SURFACE FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK UP ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE FLOW VEERS
BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.
THE RIDGE WILL BE HEADING EAST INTO SATURDAY THANKS TO AN UPPER
LOW MOVING IN TO WA/OR. THE QUESTION OF PRECIP HAS BEEN MOSTLY UP
IN THE AIR FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS THE ECMWF REMAINED DRY AND
THE GFS HAS BEEN WET. THE ECMWF HAS STARTED TO MOISTEN UP BY
WARMING UP TO THE IDEA OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS NM BEING
PUSHED EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF DOES STAY MORE SPOTTY
WITH COVERAGE WHICH SEEMS MORE PROBABLE. LIFT FOR PRECIP WILL
ENHANCE JUST TO OUR EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROF TAPS IN TO HIGHER
MOISTURE AND MOVES OVER A FRONT SUNDAY EVENING. THIS IS WHERE THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF CHANGE POSITIONS WITH PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FA.
THE GFS SHOWS A DRY FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF IS MORE GENEROUS BY KEEPING
MOISTURE IN PLACE WHILE PROVIDING LIFT. CURRENTLY THE GFS APPEARS
MORE PROBABLE AND HAS THE MOST WEIGHT IN THE POP FORECAST. ALDRICH
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1228 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Low clouds and fog has dissipated for the moment, but all models
are indicating at least scattered convection to develop across
West Central Texas by mid afternoon. Best forecast right now would
have the storms south and southeast of San Angelo, with the
Sonora, Junction, and Brady terminals the most likely to be
affected. Have included a VCTS and a CB group for those 3
locations for the afternoon and evening. Once the storms actually
develop, may be able to pin down the timing a little bit better.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Look for moderately challenging flight conditions during the next
24 hours. Patchy fog this morning, has reduced the visibility at
the Junction terminal to five satute miles; expect this fog to
linger for a couple hours. Thunderstorms may develop today and
tonight...mainly along and southeast of a line from Ozona, to San
Angelo, to Coleman. Large hail and damaging winds are possible
with some thunderstorms.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 432 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
.Possible Thunderstorms Southeast...
Thunderstorms may develop across our southeastern counties today and
tonight. Models continue to indicate the potential for
thunderstorms...mainly along and southeast of a line from Ozona, to
San Angelo, to Coleman. The HRRR begins development across our
Northwest Hill Country counties around 2 pm CDT and then expends the
development area northwest. The Storm prediction Center has much of
this same area designated as either marginal or slight risk areas.
But, models still don`t indicate very good upper support. So, the
main forcing will be thermodynamic. Given low confidence for exactly
where and when any thunderstorms may develop, will continue only
slight chance PoPs for the today and tonight periods.
LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Wednesday afternoon, a dryline is expected to set up along the
western edge of West Central Texas from Iraan to Sterling City to
Sweetwater to Childress. Isolated thunderstorms are possible
along/east of the dryline, but there is a better chance of storms
Wednesday night, as an upper shortwave moves through the Central
Plains and a cold front approaches the Big Country toward morning.
The best potential for storms will be in the Big Country, where
the best dynamics are in place. Day 3 SPC outlook has
marginal/slight risk of storms for the I-20 and northward area.
Still, a storm could become severe anywhere, if it develops, as
the GFS model forecasts SB CAPES of 2000-4000 J/KG along and east
of a Sonora...San Angelo...Abilene...Throckmorton line.
Storm chances continue Thursday as a cold front moves through.
Again a few severe thunderstorms possible, particularly south of
the Big Country where GFS was indicating MUCAPES of 2000 to 3000
J/KG. Day 3 SPC outlook has a marginal risk of severe storms
Thursday for all of West Central Texas.
There is small lull in showers and thunderstorms Friday and
Friday night, before thunderstorms chances return Saturday into
Sunday. There are several shortwaves in zonal flow aloft along
with possible dryline interaction Sunday/Sunday night. Instability
is not a strong (CAPES were in the 1000-1500 J/KG) but can not
rule out a severe storm. While a cold front brings more stable
air Monday night and Tuesday, a few storms could develop, mainly
in eastern sections where more moisture will be available.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 93 67 91 62 / 5 10 20 50
San Angelo 92 66 91 65 / 20 20 20 30
Junction 92 65 88 65 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
07
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
612 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY. COOLER AIR SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 612 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES...SHAPING TOWARDS THE
SFC OBS AND LAV GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FOR EARLY
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...BLENDED IN HRRR WHICH CAPTURED THE
CONVECTION ALONG BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. DECIDED TO HOLD ON TO
SCATTERED POPS TONIGHT...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION.
WILL WAIT AND SEE IF A BAND OF CONVECTION APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE AS SUGGESTED BY HRRR AND RNK WRFARW AFTER 08Z. THE
HIRESW-ARW EAST MODEL WEAKENS CONVECTION BEFORE ITS ARRIVAL LATE
TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS
EVENING...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...
A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN LYNCHBURG AND
THE REST OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. CLOUDS ARE STILL HOLDING AT
LYNCHBURG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S, BUT THE CLOUDS COULD
CLEAR IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. MEANWHILE, SUNSHINE HAS EMERGED
TO SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. THIS
HEATING HAS DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE WHERE OVER 1,000 J/KG OF
CAPE IS AVAILABLE ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE PIEDMONT
ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. WITH
A STATIONARY FRONT STILL OVER THE REGION AND THIS AFOREMENTIONED
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD WANE TOWARD MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, SOME
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A
LITTLE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL AND
THE MOIST GROUND. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT
ORIGINATED EARLIER. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT ON THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL
GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CLEAR TO INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY. WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT STILL OVERHEAD, THERE IS
STILL A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WERE
KEPT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 60S TO THE UPPER
70S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO AN
EASTERN TROF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUITE
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MEANDERING
BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING
ALONG AS THE MAIN PARENT LOWS CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE AREA
WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY THE DIGGING UPPER TROF WILL DRIVE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND SWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION AND USHER IN MUCH COLDER
AIR FOR THE WEEKEND ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINE WITH
A SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. THIS PATTERN IS NOT
DECLARING ANY DEFINITIVE SCENARIO FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR REGION
BUT WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY SPECIFIC DETAILS WILL BE EVALUATED DAILY
ALONG WITH THE PROSPECT OF ANY LOCAL HYDRO ISSUES ARISING FROM LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS WELL OVER ONE INCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS IT BECOMES QUASI
ZONAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...BUT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN SAG
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN OUR FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION BY TUESDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT TUESDAY...
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION, BUT KROA
AND KLYH STILL REMAIN WITH A MVFR CEILING AT THIS HOUR. THOSE
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE MAIN AVIATION THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PINPOINT
EXACTLY WHERE ANY CONVECTION WILL FIRE. IT SEEMS THAT AREAS ALONG
KBLF/KLWB/KBCB MAY BE WHERE ANY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS FIRST. VCTS
REMAINS IN ALL TAF SITES, BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER APPEARS
TO BE LATER THIS EVENING DURING THE 4 PM TO 8 PM WINDOW.
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD SUBSIDE TOWARD MIDNIGHT TONIGHT,
WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER SEVERAL HOURS LONGER. THE WET
GROUND AND RECENT RAINFALL COULD ALLOW SOME MVFR/IFR FOG TO FORM
AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ALOFT
THAT MAY KEEP THE VISIBILITIES FROM DROPPING LOWER. HOWEVER, THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING TOWARD EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT KLYH FOR THE LOWER
CEILINGS TO MATERIALIZE. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REACH
KBLF/KLWB/KBCB/KROA LATER IN THE MORNING FROM ANY REMNANTS OF
UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT ORIGINATED EARLIER.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION, THERE
COULD STILL BE PATCHY FOG AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVERHEAD BY
FRIDAY, SO ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING AT KLYH/KDAN TO VFR SHOULD
TAKE PLACE LATER THIS WEEKEND WHEN A COOLER AIR MASS ARRIVES. SOME
MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING BETTER FLYING WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
REGION DURING SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...KK/PW
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PW
AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML