Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/09/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
300 PM MST SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NORTH OF TUCSON THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING
TREND WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE
WRN STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/VORT
LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. ONE SUCH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT LOBE WAS EVIDENT VIA WATER IMAGERY TO BE NEAR
THE NRN BAJA CALIF COAST. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED VIA THE 07/12Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC TO MOVE EWD INTO NWRN SONORA THIS EVENING...THEN
MOVE NEWD INTO SWRN NEW MEXICO SUN MORNING.
SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS THE 07/12Z UNIV OF ARIZONA WRF-NAM
AND WRF-GFS DEPICT MEASURABLE LIGHT PRECIP TO OCCUR THIS EVENING
MAINLY ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. THE 07/20Z HRRR AND THE 07/12 UNIV OF
ARIZ WRF-NAM WERE THEN SIMILAR WITH THE DEPICTION OF SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH MORE LIKELY BETWEEN 08Z-10Z. THE GFS DID NOT
DEPICT THIS AREA OF PRECIP TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT. AT ANY RATE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM TUCSON WWD/NWWD LATE TONIGHT.
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN
ROCKIES SUN AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/
VORT LOBES AS PER THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC WILL MOVE EWD MAINLY ADJACENT
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SUN. THESE FEATURES IN COMBINATION WITH
ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL JUSTIFY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF SE ARIZONA SUN MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THEN EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS FORECAST AREA SUN AFTERNOON. HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS ACROSS WHITE MOUNTAINS SUN
AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BE OVER SERN WYOMING SUN EVENING WITH
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWWD INTO SWRN NEW MEXICO.
SYNOPTIC-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST-TO-
EAST SUN EVENING. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN
EVENING IS LIMITED TO THE ERN PORTION OF THIS FORECAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FROM TUCSON WWD. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR
AREA-WIDE LATE SUN NIGHT UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT.
HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE MON-SAT AS A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS INITIALLY OFF THE WEST COAST ADVANCES
EWD INTO THE SWRN CONUS BY THUR. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS THEN
PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND INTO THE SRN ROCKIES FRI-SAT.
THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICT AN INCREASE OF LOWER AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER FRI-SAT. THUS...
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FRI-SAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THIS
FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR MON-THUR.
APPEARS THAT THUR WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...AND TEMPS MAY ENCROACH UPON THE CENTURY MARK FROM TUCSON
WWD INTO THE WRN DESERTS. HIGH TEMPS FRI-SAT WILL THEN REMAIN ABOUT
5-10 DEGS OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/00Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY N TO NW OF KTUS INTO THIS
EVENING WITH SKC TO THE SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT...THEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL SUNDAY.
ISOLATED -SHRA WITH A STRAY -TSRA POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
KTUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ISOLATED-SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA
SUNDAY. SWLY SURFACE WINDS INTO THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 12 KTS EXCEPT NEAR KDUG. WINDS WILL BECOME TERRAIN DRIVEN AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST
TO 15-18 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF TUCSON INTO SUNDAY. A FEW MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON
BREEZES AROUND 15 MPH PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL THEN OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY ALONG WITH A STRONG
WARMING TREND AND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FLAGSTAFF AZ
922 PM MST FRI MAY 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS, AS WELL AS THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY, WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING...IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
FOR AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STORMS MAY HAVE SOME PEA SIZED TO HALF INCH HAIL THIS EVENING.
THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN UPDATED...MORE TO REFINE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AROUND CURRENT AND FUTURE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH AND CROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MESO-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST CONTINUE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTH...YAVAPAI COUNTY AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /308 PM MST/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES, WEST OF A LINE FROM BLACK CANYON CITY TO
PRESCOTT AND SUPAI VILLAGE. HRRR GUIDANCE DEVELOPS AN UNORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN YUMA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND ROTATES IT UP
INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY THIS EVENING. THE BEGINNINGS OF A CLUSTER IN
SOUTHWEST AZ/SOUTHEAST CA CAN BE SEEN ON MRMS REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCTS AT PRESENT. FOR NOW, KEEPING THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES
OVER YAVAPAI/WESTERN COCONINO AND LOWER CHANCES FARTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT SEEMS REASONABLE.
TONIGHT...AS THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS LARGELY NEAR
AND WEST OF I-17/US 89, A FEW HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS COULD SEE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AREN`T PARTICULARLY
COLD WITH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY ABOUT -2.5C AT 700MB, BUT
SOME LOCAL COOLING DUE TO PRECIP DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION. SPECIFICALLY, LOCATIONS NEAR AND
ABOVE 7000 FEET INCLUDING THE FLAGSTAFF AREA COULD OBSERVE SOME
SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY ALONG I-40 WEST OF FLAGSTAFF AND ALONG US-180
NORTHWEST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS. GIVEN LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING, IT MAY BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE ASIDE FROM GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES BELOW ABOUT
7500-8000 FEET. THAT BEING SAID, IT WOULD BE WISE TO BE READY FOR
A LITTLE SNOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PRECIP CHANCES AND BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES ARE IN
YAVAPAI/COCONINO COUNTIES OVER TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
SATURDAY, ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE NORTHERN ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN
INCLUDING THE EASTERN RIM/WHITE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA ON
SUNDAY.
CHANCES FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE ON MONDAY, MOST
NOTABLY IN NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA, AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS ON
TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FOR
THE TIME BEING, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE UNDER A
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...OVERNIGHT...A PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNDER
SCATTERED SHOWERS...PRIMARILY ACROSS YAVAPAI...COCONINO...AND
NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 16Z SAT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING A PERIOD OF COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH SNOW LEVELS BRIEFLY DROPPING DOWN TO
AROUND 7000 FEET.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MONDAY WILL SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WITH OTHERWISE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TC/AT
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...MCS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
229 PM PDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A departing low pressure system will support scattered showers
through sunday morning with thunderstorms possible through this
evening across the mountains, adjacent valleys, and the antelope
valley. Weak high pressure aloft will dominate much of next week
bringing much warmer conditions to the area along with night and
morning low clouds and fog for the coast and some valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE)
The western periphery of a broad upper level low pressure system was
over srn CA early this afternoon. Plenty of clouds lingered over the
forecast area, and any breaks in the cloud cover away from the coast
filled in with the heating of the day. The only shower activity
noted on RADAR early this afternoon was over the SBA County mtns.
The upper low circulation will linger over srn CA thru the rest of
the afternoon into early this evening, and with additional heating
from the strong May sunshine combined with the residual moisture and
some instability (sfc-based CAPE of 700-950 J/KG and LI`s of -3 to -
4 over the mtns) will result in the slight chance of thunderstorm
development mainly over the mtns, deserts, and interior portions of
SLO County thru early this evening. Steering flow is weakly out of
the n which could cause any thunderstorms to drift off the mtns to
the adjacent vlys, especially for VTU/L.A. Counties. Any
thunderstorms that develop will be slow-movers, and with
unseasonably high PWAT values about 0.85 inch, there is the
potential for locally heavy rain and flash flooding. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH is in effect thru 8 PM for the mtns of SBA/VTU/L.A. Counties,
Cuyama Vly, and Antelope Vly. Otherwise, there will be plenty of
clouds with a slight chance to chance of showers across the forecast
area thru early evening. In addition, mtn snow showers above 6500 to
7000 feet will be possible.
The upper low/troffiness will slowly move e thru sun. The 12Z NAM
was also forecasting a weak lobe of vorticity in the broad nrly flow
aloft to pass over the area late Sun morning to early afternoon. An
upper level ridge of high pressure off the CA coast will slowly
build into CA Sun night thru Tue, with rising 500 MB heights thru
the period.
Varying amounts of clouds will persist tonight and Sun, with a
lingering slight chance of showers over the mtns later tonight thru
Sun afternoon. A much more stable air mass will be in place over the
area on Sun, so no thunderstorm development is expected.
Partially clearing skies are expected over some interior areas Sun
night, otherwise plenty of low clouds and some fog is expected for
the cst, vlys and cstl slopes thru Mon morning. Some clouds are also
expected to be banked up on the n mtn slopes Sun night into Mon
morning. It looks mostly sunny skies should develop in all areas by
midday Mon as some drier air filters into the region.
With the upper ridging building in, it looks like a typical May gray
pattern will set up with night and morning low clouds and fog for
the cst and vlys Mon night and Tue morning, followed by mostly clear
skies in all areas Mon afternoon and evening.
Winds tonight thru Tue will be quite gusty out of the sw during the
afternoon and evening hours across the Antelope Vly, with some sw to
nw gusty winds in the mtns at times. Winds in these areas should
remain generally below advisory levels during the period. Otherwise,
the onshore flow will increase each day across the forecast area,
strongest on Mon afternoon, with gusty winds also possible in the
afternoon and early evening hours along the coast and in some of the
vlys and foothills.
Temps will be cooler than normal across the area on Sun. Highs will
range from about 2 to 12 deg below normal, with temps for the cst
and vlys generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Temps will warm to
slightly below normal to near normal for much of the region on Mon,
with highs in the warmest vlys reaching the mid to upper 70s, except
upper 70s to low 80s in the Antelope Vly. It`ll be even warmer on
Tue altho highs will continue to be a few degrees below normal for
the coastal plain, but for inland areas temps will warm to about 2
to 6 deg above normal. Highs on Tue in the warmest vlys will reach
the low 80s.
.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)
EC/GFS in generally good agreement Wed thru Sat. Upper level ridging
will continue to build into CA thru Wed, then move into the Great
Basin for Thu thru Sat, with a broad sw flow aloft over srn CA. Dry
weather with warmer temps will prevail across the forecast area
during the period. Varying amounts of night and morning low clouds
and fog can be expected for the coast and vlys thru the period,
otherwise skies will be mostly clear. High temps will warm to
several degrees above normal away from the coast on Wed, and to
about 4 to 10 deg above normal for many areas away from the coast
Thu and Fri before cooling slightly on Sat. The warmest day is
forecast to be Thu with highs reaching into the mid to upper 80s in
the warmest vlys, except to around 90 in the Antelope Vly.
&&
.AVIATION...07/1745Z.
At 1700 UTC...There was no marine inversion.
Low to moderate confidence in 18z tafs due to periodic mvfr cigs at
all taf sites through 06z this evening. Showers and isolated to
scattered TSTMS expected over the mountains and deserts this
afternoon and evening. 20% chance that some of these will affect
the Los Angeles and Ventura County valleys after 21z today. 20%
chance that cigs will drop to ifr in and around showers. showers
will diminish in most areas after 06z. Possible UDDF and LLWS
around thunderstorms...especially over the mountains and deserts.
KLAX...Low confidence in 18z taf...due to periodic showers and
occasional mvfr cigs. 20% chance of ifr cigs/vsby at times...and
gusty winds near stronger showers. Low to moderate confidence in
low clouds developing by 10z...with both timing and height of cigs
uncertain. 20% chance of ifr cigs 10z-15z.
KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in 18z taf. Periodic showers
will produce mvfr cigs at times...with a 10% chance of conds
dropping to ifr. Timing of mvfr cigs may differ up to 2 hrs from
taf times tonight. 30% chance of ifr cigs after 12z.
&&
.MARINE...07/200 PM.
A slight chance of showers will continue over the coastal waters
this afternoon and evening as a large upper low with embedded
disturbances crosses the area. Otherwise, high confidence in
generally light winds under 20 kt and mild sea conditions through
the weekend, and into early next week. High tides to near 6.5 feet
are expected this evening around 9:30 PM PDT.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Flash Flood Watch in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening For
zones 38-52>54-59. (See LAXFFALOX).
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Sirard
AVIATION...Smith
MARINE...Smith
SYNOPSIS...Munroe
weather.gov/losangeles
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
219 PM PDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers with very isolated thunderstorms will continue today
across much of the Sierra and northwest Nevada. Showers will
linger tonight into Sunday with afternoon thunderstorms possible
Sunday. Drier and warmer weather returns for next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
The upper low which has brought the region plenty of wet and
stormy weather the past few days is continuing to slowly drift
eastward. The center of the low is now over southern Nevada/Utah
and is beginning to deepen. Only changes made to the forecast were
to reflect latest precipitation trends.
With partial clearing north of Interstate 80, some surface
instability has once again allowed showers and isolated
thunderstorms to redevelop this afternoon. These cells will be
much more pulse-like in nature, meaning impacts will likely be
short-lived. In addition, it will be very hit or miss which
locations receive additional rain through the afternoon and
evening with fewer locations seeing thunderstorms. Showers and
storms are generally moving from the northeast to the southwest
this afternoon.
Overnight, forecast simulations once again are showing some
precipitation banding taking place associated with a vort lobe
rotating around the northwest side of the low pressure center.
There is some disagreement in the exact location, whether it be
across northeast California and northwest Nevada, or shifted more
to the east. Have opted to keep precipitation chances more
broad-brushed overnight, with better agreement in the location of
showers during the day Sunday mainly south of a Lake Tahoe-
Winnemucca line.
For Sunday, there is likely to be less cloud cover to start the
day, helping to generate more surface instability in addition to a
bit of unidirectional shear, which could better sustain updrafts.
Plenty of moisture will still be present south of Interstate 80,
once again firing off showers and thunderstorms. A few stronger
could produce heavy rain, but flooding isn`t a concern at this
time unless cells train across the same region or become anchored
to steep terrain.
Conditions will become much drier Monday with warming
temperatures. A weak system brushing by the north will send a
shallow backdoor cold front through northern Nevada Tuesday, but
the only impact will be about 5 degrees of cooling. -Dawn
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday...
Medium range guidance continues to show good agreement for a drier
weather pattern continuing from mid week into next weekend. General
ridging over the western US is expected to prevail, with a shortwave
moving across the Pacific Northwest late Friday-Friday night.
Precipitation associated with this wave is likely to remain north of
the CA-Oregon border. Afternoon cumulus will develop especially
south of US-50 Wednesday-Friday, but showers and thunderstorms are
unlikely due to mid level cap and insufficient forcing.
Daytime temperatures in lower elevations will warm up to the
lower 80s from Wednesday-Friday (about 10 degrees above average)
then drop slightly on Saturday behind the shortwave passage.
Generally light winds are expected Wednesday, followed by late day
westerly zephyr breezes starting Thursday. Lee side wind gusts of
20-25 mph are expected each day, except gusts may edge upward to
near 30 mph on Friday. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
For the remainder of this afternoon and evening, isold-sct -shra
will continue with cigs/vsby dropping to MVFR at times. Brief IFR
cigs or vsby possible during heavier showers. There is a slight
possibility of isolated thunder thru 06z this evening, but there is
only about a 10% chance of tstms directly affecting any of the main
terminals.
Otherwise, VFR conds will prevail thru late evening although higher
terrain will likely remain obscured with persistent cloud deck
around 9000-11000 ft MSL.
Later tonight into Sunday, one more rain band is forecast to move
south across the region, mainly between 06-12z for KRNO-KTVL-KTRK-
KCXP and between 12-18z for KMMH, producing MVFR cigs/vsby at
times. After 18z, most shower chances will be limited to areas
south of US-50, including KMMH. Generally light N-NW winds are
expected thru Sunday, although wind directions will vary near shower
activity. MJD
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
219 PM PDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers with very isolated thunderstorms will continue today
across much of the Sierra and northwest Nevada. Showers will
linger tonight into Sunday with afternoon thunderstorms possible
Sunday. Drier and warmer weather returns for next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
The upper low which has brought the region plenty of wet and
stormy weather the past few days is continuing to slowly drift
eastward. The center of the low is now over southern Nevada/Utah
and is beginning to deepen. Only changes made to the forecast were
to reflect latest precipitation trends.
With partial clearing north of Interstate 80, some surface
instability has once again allowed showers and isolated
thunderstorms to redevelop this afternoon. These cells will be
much more pulse-like in nature, meaning impacts will likely be
short-lived. In addition, it will be very hit or miss which
locations receive additional rain through the afternoon and
evening with fewer locations seeing thunderstorms. Showers and
storms are generally moving from the northeast to the southwest
this afternoon.
Overnight, forecast simulations once again are showing some
precipitation banding taking place associated with a vort lobe
rotating around the northwest side of the low pressure center.
There is some disagreement in the exact location, whether it be
across northeast California and northwest Nevada, or shifted more
to the east. Have opted to keep precipitation chances more
broad-brushed overnight, with better agreement in the location of
showers during the day Sunday mainly south of a Lake Tahoe-
Winnemucca line.
For Sunday, there is likely to be less cloud cover to start the
day, helping to generate more surface instability in addition to a
bit of unidirectional shear, which could better sustain updrafts.
Plenty of moisture will still be present south of Interstate 80,
once again firing off showers and thunderstorms. A few stronger
could produce heavy rain, but flooding isn`t a concern at this
time unless cells train across the same region or become anchored
to steep terrain.
Conditions will become much drier Monday with warming
temperatures. A weak system brushing by the north will send a
shallow backdoor cold front through northern Nevada Tuesday, but
the only impact will be about 5 degrees of cooling. -Dawn
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday...
Medium range guidance continues to show good agreement for a drier
weather pattern continuing from mid week into next weekend. General
ridging over the western US is expected to prevail, with a shortwave
moving across the Pacific Northwest late Friday-Friday night.
Precipitation associated with this wave is likely to remain north of
the CA-Oregon border. Afternoon cumulus will develop especially
south of US-50 Wednesday-Friday, but showers and thunderstorms are
unlikely due to mid level cap and insufficient forcing.
Daytime temperatures in lower elevations will warm up to the
lower 80s from Wednesday-Friday (about 10 degrees above average)
then drop slightly on Saturday behind the shortwave passage.
Generally light winds are expected Wednesday, followed by late day
westerly zephyr breezes starting Thursday. Lee side wind gusts of
20-25 mph are expected each day, except gusts may edge upward to
near 30 mph on Friday. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
For the remainder of this afternoon and evening, isold-sct -shra
will continue with cigs/vsby dropping to MVFR at times. Brief IFR
cigs or vsby possible during heavier showers. There is a slight
possibility of isolated thunder thru 06z this evening, but there is
only about a 10% chance of tstms directly affecting any of the main
terminals.
Otherwise, VFR conds will prevail thru late evening although higher
terrain will likely remain obscured with persistent cloud deck
around 9000-11000 ft MSL.
Later tonight into Sunday, one more rain band is forecast to move
south across the region, mainly between 06-12z for KRNO-KTVL-KTRK-
KCXP and between 12-18z for KMMH, producing MVFR cigs/vsby at
times. After 18z, most shower chances will be limited to areas
south of US-50, including KMMH. Generally light N-NW winds are
expected thru Sunday, although wind directions will vary near shower
activity. MJD
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
213 PM PDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.Synopsis...
Showers continue tonight then a drying trend with only a slight
chance of showers Sunday. Temperatures warming into 80s next week.
&&
.Short Term Discussion...
Numerous showers continue this afternoon to spread southwest over
the area. The models are indicating during the daytime conditions
too stable for thunderstorms in the valley so have removed them
for today but left slight chances over the mountains. The HRRR is
indicating some possible convection this evening dropping down
from the north and into Shasta and Tehama Counties. Have spread
possibility for thunderstorms into those areas for this evening.
The low will be moving northeastward away from Southern California
tonight and showers should gradually diminish over the interior
late tonight and Sunday. Lingering showers are still possible on
Sunday but mainly over the Sierra. Have left a slight chance for
most areas including the foothills and valley for the morning but
think that by mid morning those chances should diminish with the
only chances continuing to be over the mountains.
Temperatures will be warming each day Sunday through Tuesday.
70`s for the valley Sunday with 80s throughout the valley by
Tuesday. The mountains with warm mid 50s to mid 60s for Sunday and
warm each day into the mid 60s to mid 70s by Tuesday. Dry
conditions are expected for the first part of next week.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Dry weather expected through the period as high pressure
remains in control. A weak trough may skirt thru the northern
state by Saturday, but moisture is limited and showers look to remain
to the north of the local area. This may serve to cool
temperatures slightly though. Afternoon highs for the period generally
in the 80s across the Valley with onshore flow prompting Delta
Breeze with 70s expected in the affected area. 50s-60s in the
mountains and 70s in the foothills.
CEO
&&
.AVIATION...
Showers will continue across the area through early Sunday with VFR
to occasional MVFR conditions across TAF sites. Southerly winds
generally under 10 kts. System will begin to pull away on Sunday
with drier weather and VFR conditions.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A departing low pressure system will support scattered showers
through sunday morning with the slight chance for thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening across the mountains, adjacent valleys,
and the antelope valley. Weak high pressure aloft will dominate
much of next week bringing fair skies and much warmer conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-MON)
The main upper low that moved over the area yesterday had moved off
to the e overnight and this morning, altho a lobe of vorticity
rotating around the upper low extended the troffiness to the w back
over CA during the period. This caused an increase in shower
activity over portions of VTU/L.A. Counties and over the coastal
waters off of L.A. County early this morning, some with brief heavy
rain. This activity has diminished at mid morning. Otherwise, plenty
of clouds lingered over the forecast area this morning with some
breaks here and there. The expanded upper low circulation will
linger over srn CA thru this afternoon and early evening, and with
heating from the strong May sunshine combined with the residual
moisture and some instability (sfc-based CAPE of 700-950 J/KG and
LI`s of -3 to -4 over the mtns) will result in another chance of
thunderstorm development mainly over the mtns, deserts, and interior
portions of SLO County this afternoon to early this evening.
Steering flow is weakly out of the n which could cause any
thunderstorms to drift off the mtns to the adjacent vlys, especially
for L.A. County. Thunderstorms will be slow-movers again, and with
unseasonably high PWAT values about 0.85 inch, there is the
potential for heavy rain and flash flooding. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH is
in effect from 10 AM to 8 PM for the mtns of SBA/VTU/L.A. Counties,
Cuyama Vly, and Antelope Vly. Otherwise, there will be plenty of
clouds with a slight chance to chance of showers across the forecast
area thru early evening. In addition, mtn snow showers above 6500
to 7000 feet will be possible.
The upper low/troffiness will slowly move e thru sun. The 12Z NAM
was also forecasting a weak lobe of vorticity in the broad nrly flow
aloft to pass over the area late Sun morning to early afternoon. An
upper level ridge of high pressure off the CA coast will slowly
build into CA Sun night and Mon, with rising 500 MB heights thru the
period.
Varying amounts of clouds will persist tonight and Sun, with a
lingering slight chance of showers in all areas tonight and Sun
morning, and over the mtns Sun afternoon. A much more stable air
mass will be in place over the area on Sun, so no thunderstorm
development is expected.
Some clearing skies are expected over interior areas Sun night, with
plenty of low clouds and some fog expected for coastal and vly areas
thru Mon morning. Some clouds are also expected to be banked up on
the n mtn slopes Sun night into Mon morning. It looks mostly sunny
skies should develop in all areas by midday Mon as some drier air
filters into the region.
Winds today thru Mon will be quite gusty out of the sw during the
afternoon and evening hours across the Antelope Vly, with some sw to
nw gusts in the mtns at times. Otherwise, the onshore flow will
increase each day across the forecast area, strongest on Mon
afternoon, with gusty winds also possible in the afternoon and early
evening hours along the coast and in some of the vlys and foothills.
Temps will be much cooler than normal across the area today thru
Sun, with highs ranging from about 5 to 15 deg below normal overall
today, and 2 to 12 deg below normal for Sun. Hi temps for the cst
and vlys will be generally in the mid 60s to low 70s today, and
upper 60s to lower 70s for Sun. Temps will then warm to slightly
below normal to near normal for much of the region on Mon, with
highs in the warmest vlys reaching the mid to upper 70s, except
upper 70s to low 80s in the Antelope Vly.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)
A warming trend will continue into Wednesday or Thursday of next
week as the ridge axis noses into the West Coast. Most valley,
foothill, and desert locations could see afternoon temperatures
approach the 80s by Wednesday and/or Thursday. Some locations
could see high temperatures closer around 90 in the Antelope
Valley. With a westerly flow aloft, some semblance of a marine
layer stratus deck will remain over the coastal and lower valley
areas into midweek, but by Thursday, stratus coverage may be a
minimum and confined to the coastal areas.
By late next week, southwest flow aloft should strengthen as a
trough of low pressure moves through the Pacific Northwest. An
increasing onshore flow pattern should bring a cooling trend for
Friday and into next weekend, along with more persistent night
through morning low clouds and fog.
&&
.AVIATION...07/1020Z.
At 10z...There was no marine inversion.
Low confidence in 12z tafs due to vfr/mvfr cigs possible at times
at all taf sites through the next 24 hour period. Showers and
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to increase
across the mountains...with a few possibly drifting into the Los
Angeles and Ventura County valleys after 20z today. 20 percent
chance that cigs will vary from vfr to ifr in and around showers.
showers should become less widespread after 03z this evening.
Due to the chance of thunderstorms across the mountains and Antelope
Valley from 18z-03z. Possible UDDF and LLWS around thunderstorms.
klax...Confidence is low that some showers will occur today. There
will be a better chance of showers in the afternoon. 30 percent
of showers after 16z but 30 percent chance that cigs remain vfr
through 20z. 20 percent chance of periods of ifr cigs 12z-15z.
kbur...20 percent chance of showers this morning...but slightly
better chance for showers in the afternoon. Periods of mvfr/ifr
cigs if showers do develop.
&&
.MARINE...07/800 AM.
Isolated showers are expected to continue across the southern
coastal waters through today. The heavier showers observed earlier
have subsided somewhat but still could occur through late this
morning, with locally gusty winds and higher steep seas.
Otherwise, high confidence in generally light winds under 20 kt
and mild sea conditions through the weekend, and into early next
week. High tides to near 7 feet are expected this evening.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Flash Flood Watch in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening For
zones 38-52>54-59. (See LAXFFALOX).
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Sirard/Hall
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...Smith
SYNOPSIS...Munroe
weather.gov/losangeles
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
906 AM PDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.Synopsis...
Another day of showers today then a drying trend with only a
slight chance of showers Sunday. Temperatures warming into 80s
next week.
.Short Term Discussion...
Numerous showers this morning spreading southwest over the area.
The models are indicating during the daytime conditions too
stable for thunderstorms in the valley so have removed them for
today but left slight chances over the mountains. The HRRR is
indicating some possible convection this evening dropping down
from the north and into Shasta County. Have spread possibility for
thunderstorms over the Mountains of Shasta County for now and will
reassess the possibility of convection moving into the northern
end of the Sacramento Valley with the afternoon package.
The low will be moving northeastward away from Southern California
tonight and showers should gradually diminish over the interior
late tonight and Sunday. Lingering showers are still possible on
Sunday but mainly over the Sierra.
Temperatures will be warming each day Sunday through Tuesday.
70`s for the valley Sunday with 80s throughout the valley by
Tuesday. The mountains with warm mid 50s to mid 60s for Sunday and
warm each day into the mid 60s to mid 70s by Tuesday. Dry
conditions are expected for the first part of next week.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Dry conditions with above normal temperatures expected through the
extended period under upper level high pressure. An upper level
low dropping through the Pacific Northwest will bring a slight
cooling trend through at the end of the week but precipitation is
expected to remain north of the forecast area. Generally light
southerly winds are expected through the extended period.
A Pacific low moving in off the coast could bring a chance of
precipitation early next week but extended models differ. At this
time this system looks mainly dry.
&&
.AVIATION...
Upper low over SoCal will continue to pivot isolated showers over Norcal
with a threat of afternoon thunderstorms. VFR conditions TAF sites
next 24 hours except occasional MVFR in showers or thunderstorms.
Mainly IFR over mountains. South winds up to 15 mph except gusty
near thunderstorms.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
827 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 827 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE PLAINS HAS BEEN WANING THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS AS IT PROGRESSES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. INDICATIONS FROM THE
HRRR AND RAP ARE THAT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WHILE COVERAGE ON THE PLAINS WILL BE
LESS...BUT POSSIBLY CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. HAVE BACKED OFF
ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ON THE PLAINS. LIGHTNING
DETECTION SHOWS THAT ALL ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
STATE...SO REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A QUICK LOOK AT THE NEW EVENING MODEL
RUNS SHOWS MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME CLEARING OUT OF
THE STATE. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND FIRST
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
CURRENT RADAR PICTURES ARE SHOWING ABOUT 15% COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS SOME
LIGHTNING. THE CELLS ARE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT UP
TO 15 MPH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE MOSTLY EAST OR
SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. MODELS HAVE THE UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THIS EVENING...MOVING
INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT
IS WEAK SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY OVERNIGHT...THEN NORTHWESTERLY ON
MONDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. THE QG OMEGA FIELDS HAVE WEAK
UPWARD MOTION PROGGED THIS EVENING...THEN NEUTRAL TO WEAK DOWNWARD
MOTION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE MAINLY
NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS PLENTY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
UPPER LOW AROUND. THERE IS LESS MOISTURE AROUND ON MONDAY. THE
CAPE IS RELEGATED TO ONLY THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...VALUES ARE
OVER 1000 J/KG ON THE NAM FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. THERE IS
SOME MINOR CAPE FOR ALL THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NOTHING
OVER 500 K/KG. LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP TONIGHT AND MONDAY IN
THE 700-400 MB LEVELS. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE MINOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MOST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...THEN A
TAD OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LITTLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA. FOR
POPS...WILL TO WITH 30-40%S FOR THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...AND 40-
60%S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. POPS WILL BE IN THE 30-50%
RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 10-
20%S FOR THE PLAINS. FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3-4 C
WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON`S READINGS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY EVENING...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH AN 80KT JET
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO...WHICH IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
THAN YESTERDAYS RUN.
YESTERDAYS RUN SHOWED THE UPPER JET OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...WITH
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THE
LATEST 12Z RUN HAS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM DENVER SOUTH
INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE THEN EAST NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AND
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH SYSTEM AND
KEEPS PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH NOON ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND ENDS PRECIPITATION BY
MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
POPS AS THEY ARE. IN ADDITION...IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS...WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. BY
SATURDAY...THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. HEREFORE...HAVE
RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 827 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
CEILING REMAINING WELL ABOVE 6000 FEET AGL. WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTH
TO SOTUHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. WARMING TEMPERATURES SHOULD DE-STABILIZE THE
AIRMASS IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
340 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON IN NRN EL PASO
COUNTY AND NRN TELLER COUNTY. DRIER AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE EAST
ACRS THE FAR SERN PLAINS...WITH DEW POINTS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER
40S AT 2 PM AT KLAA...BUT HAD DROPPED TO 30 BY 230 PM...AND WAS DOWN
TO 7 AT KLHX. THE BOUNDARY OUT EAST IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST
BUT IN THE MEANTIME STORMS ARE FIRING ALONG THIS DRY LINE. IT IS
ALSO STILL RELATIVELY MOIST OVR EL PASO COUNTY WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 40S. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS THE DRY LINE
SHIFTING EAST INTO KS BY AROUND 23Z...WITH CONVECTION ENDING OVR THE
FAR SERN PLAINS. IT ALSO HAS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS KICKING IN OVR EL
PASO COUNTY BETWEEN 22Z AND 23Z AND THUS BRINGING DRIER AIR IN AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH PCPN CHANCES ENDING. UNTIL THE LOWER LEVELS
DRY OUT OVR EL PASO AND TELLER COUNTIES...AND IN LOCATIONS NEAR THE
KS BORDER...THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.
ACRS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE SHOULD BE SOME ISOLD TO SCT
EVENING TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS
OF 40-50 PM AND SOME ISOLD SMALL HAIL.
BY 06Z THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA. OVERNIGHT AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO LIE
FROM THE NRN CO BORDER TO WRN AZ. THEN DURING THE DAY SUN...A
SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NM AND THEN THE SERN CORNER
OF CO IN THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE MAIN UPR LOW CENTER SITS IN SERN
WY. THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY ACRS THE FORECAST AREA THRU ABOUT
MIDMORNING SUN...BUT THEN BY LATE MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE SOME SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTN AND NEARBY TRRN.
THEN IN THE AFTERNOON THERE WL BE ENOUGH MSTR AND INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLD STORMS TO SPREAD ACRS THE SERN PLAINS. NR THE KS BORDER CAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 1000-1200 J/KG...WITH 40 KTS OF SHEAR IN
THE 0-6KM LAYER AND LI/S OF AROUND -6. THUS THERE COULD BE A THREAT
OF A SEVERE STORM OR TWO.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS WILL DIMINISH SUN NIGHT...AS THE FIRST
UPPER LOW MOVES EWD INTO NE. MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING OVER THE MTN AREAS...AND COVERAGE
OVER THE CONTDVD WILL INCREASE ON MON MORNING. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ON MONDAY AS A
WEAK TRAILING DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SNOW ACCUMS THROUGH
MON WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...TWO TO FOUR INCHES...WITH A FEW
SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE. SEE
NO NEED FOR HIGHLITES AT THIS TIME.
AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE TUE MORNING AS A TRANSITORY SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH...TUE AFTERNOON MAY SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THE PLAINS AS A SECOND SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES
EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH E CO.
WEAK UPSLOPE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTS. WED SHOULD
BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA. THE ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN PROGGING MUCH COLDER AIR ON
WED...HAS BACKED OFF AND NOW JOINS THE GFS IN PROGGING H7 TEMPS
MORE IN THE 0 TO MINUS 2 RANGE WED MORNING...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
A SNOW LEVEL IN THE 7000 FOOT RANGE. QPF DOES NOT LOOK OVERLYIMPRESSIVE.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES THRU THE
NEXT 24 HRS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT WL DECREASE BY LATE NIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1137 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
CURRENTLY...CLOUDS ARE THICKENING ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION STAYING TO OUR WEST ACROSS KGJT
AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE MILD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
TODAY...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO TO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID
AND LATE MORNING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH THE REST OF OUR CWA MAINLY DRY INTO
THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE LITTLE IF ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. BUT PORTIONS
OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND KIOWA COUNTY COULD GET IN ON SOME
ACTIVITY. CURRENT POP FORECAST COULD BE A LITTLE HEAVY HANDED IN THE
PIKES PEAK REGIONS WITH LATEST HRRR AND NAM INDICATING THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE PALMER DIVIDE IN
NORTHERN COLORADO. SPC HAS A SMALL PART OF EL PASO COUNTY AND KIOWA
COUNTY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM...WHICH COULD
MATERIALIZE IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AROUND FOR PEAK HEATING. THERE
WILL BE STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BY LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE CONCERNED...THEY WILL BE MET ACROSS A PART OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS...BUT LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES SAY THE FUELS
ARE NOT CRITICAL AND THEREFORE NOT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.
THEREFORE...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY.
HOWEVER...WE RECOMMEND THAT OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES BE DELAYED
UNTIL IT IS NOT SO DRY AND WINDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS TO THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CARRY INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN AND THE PIKES PEAK REGION...THEN
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...AS THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH THE SYSTEM CARRIES NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY IN THE EVENING. LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE I-
25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS...AND LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
...COOLER...UNSETTLED...
MODELS SHOW A BROAD UPPER LOW TRAVERSING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. UPPER LOW CENTER TRACKS PRETTY FAR NORTH...SO LIKELY NOT A
HUGE PRECIPITATION MAKER FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH OF
MONARCH PASS...AND THE PIKES PEAK REGION COULD SEE SOME PERIODS OF
DECENT PRECIPITATION...BOTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO...LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE HIT OR MISS. SOME
AREAS MAY SEE A DECENT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT OTHERS MAY NOT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RINSE...WASH...REPEAT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LINED UP
TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY. MODELS HAVE CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...AND THEN TRACKING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ROTATING STORMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME BUT THE PATTERN WILL BE THERE
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THEN TRANSITION TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY
WEEK`S END.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR TSTMS IN THE VCNTY
OF KCOS AND KALS THIS AFTERNOON AND MAYBE EARLY IN THE
EVENING...WHICH COULD BRING LOWER CIGS FOR A SHORT TIME. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
CO.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1015 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
FEELS MORE LIKE SNOW OUTSIDE THAN SEVERE WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD
STRATUS DECK SOCKED IN ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THERE HAS BEEN
SOME WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS
WHERE MORE SUNSHINE EXISTED EARLIER AND SOME WEAK ACTIVITY HAS
BEGUN OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AS WELL AT THIS TIME. SIMULATED RADAR
REFLECTIVITY FROM MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS INSIST ON FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HITTING NEARLY ALL AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF IT RATHER INTENSE. GIVEN THE VERTICAL
WIND PROFILE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY
ANY MEANS BUT THE ACTUAL EXISTENCE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
IS MORE PROBLEMATIC. EXPECTED QG FORCING IS CERTAINLY FAVORABLE
AND MORE SUNSHINE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ON THE FAR PLAINS SHOULD
HELP TO GET THINGS GOING. THE SITUATION IS NOT CLEAR CUT BY ANY
MEANS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER ARIZONA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND CLOSE OFF OVER
FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO BY SUNDAY MORNING.
NOW FOR THE DETAILS...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST WELD COUNTY. THIS HAS BROUGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE
FRONT RANGE AND INCREASED MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THIS CIRCULATION DISSIPATING
THROUGH THE MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS FROM EAGLE
TO PUEBLO. THIS WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
EVENTUALLY A NEW SURFACE LOW FORMS JUST EAST OF COLORADO SPRINGS
TO PUEBLO AND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. SURFACE BASED
CAPES WILL BE UP TO 2000 J/KG. ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED LOW SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOS. BEST TIME FOR THE SEVERE STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE JUST AFTER NOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 TO AS LATE
AS EARLY EVENING OVER FAR NORTHERN COLORADO. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS.
EASTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AT 700MB SUPPORTS THIS POTENTIAL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SO MINOR FLOODING ISSUES MAY BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF LARIMER COUNTY.
THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. SHOWERS MAY
WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS
OF COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF WEAK LIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY STILL AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST CORNER INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT LESS
THAN TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR MONDAY AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE A COMBINATION OF A LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING
COMBINING WITH MODEST DIURNAL CONVECTION TO MOVE SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE PLAINS. BY WEDNESDAY THE AIR MASS
SHOULD BE DRIER...BUT STILL PROBABLY A LITTLE LIFT FROM THE NEARBY
JET AND STILL SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. EVEN LESS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE WARMING...BUT STILL SOME LOW END SPRING
SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 952 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
STRATUS CLOUD DECK IS FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
TERMINALS AND IT APPEARS THAT IT WON`T BE GOING ANYWHERE TOO SOON.
MODEL CEILING FORECASTS HOLD ONTO AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVEMENT AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT
INCREASING AFTER ABOUT 20Z OR SO. HAVE ALREADY DELAYED THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE TAFS AND MAY HAVE TO DO THAT AGAIN
GIVEN THE COLD AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON PERHAPS BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY IF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CAN PUSH OFF THE HIGH
TERRAIN.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ET
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...ET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
410 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
CURRENTLY...CLOUDS ARE THICKENING ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION STAYING TO OUR WEST ACROSS KGJT
AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE MILD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
TODAY...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO TO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID
AND LATE MORNING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH THE REST OF OUR CWA MAINLY DRY INTO
THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE LITTLE IF ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. BUT PORTIONS
OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND KIOWA COUNTY COULD GET IN ON SOME
ACTIVITY. CURRENT POP FORECAST COULD BE A LITTLE HEAVY HANDED IN THE
PIKES PEAK REGIONS WITH LATEST HRRR AND NAM INDICATING THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE PALMER DIVIDE IN
NORTHERN COLORADO. SPC HAS A SMALL PART OF EL PASO COUNTY AND KIOWA
COUNTY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM...WHICH COULD
MATERIALIZE IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AROUND FOR PEAK HEATING. THERE
WILL BE STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BY LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE CONCERNED...THEY WILL BE MET ACROSS A PART OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS...BUT LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES SAY THE FUELS
ARE NOT CRITICAL AND THEREFORE NOT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.
THEREFORE...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY.
HOWEVER...WE RECOMMEND THAT OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES BE DELAYED
UNTIL IT IS NOT SO DRY AND WINDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS TO THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CARRY INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN AND THE PIKES PEAK REGION...THEN
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...AS THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH THE SYSTEM CARRIES NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY IN THE EVENING. LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE I-
25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS...AND LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
...COOLER...UNSETTLED...
MODELS SHOW A BROAD UPPER LOW TRAVERSING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. UPPER LOW CENTER TRACKS PRETTY FAR NORTH...SO LIKELY NOT A
HUGE PRECIPITATION MAKER FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH OF
MONARCH PASS...AND THE PIKES PEAK REGION COULD SEE SOME PERIODS OF
DECENT PRECIPITATION...BOTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO...LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE HIT OR MISS. SOME
AREAS MAY SEE A DECENT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT OTHERS MAY NOT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RINSE...WASH...REPEAT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LINED UP
TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY. MODELS HAVE CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...AND THEN TRACKING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ROTATING STORMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME BUT THE PATTERN WILL BE THERE
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THEN TRANSITION TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY
WEEK`S END.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP BY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE NEAR KALS AND KCOS AFTER 18Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
358 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER ARIZONA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND CLOSE OFF OVER
FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO BY SUNDAY MORNING.
NOW FOR THE DETAILS...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST WELD COUNTY. THIS HAS BROUGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE
FRONT RANGE AND INCREASED MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THIS CIRCULATION DISSIPATING
THROUGH THE MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS FROM EAGLE
TO PUEBLO. THIS WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
EVENTUALLY A NEW SURFACE LOW FORMS JUST EAST OF COLORADO SPRINGS
TO PUEBLO AND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. SURFACE BASED
CAPES WILL BE UP TO 2000 J/KG. ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED LOW SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOS. BEST TIME FOR THE SEVERE STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE JUST AFTER NOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 TO AS LATE
AS EARLY EVENING OVER FAR NORTHERN COLORADO. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS.
EASTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AT 700MB SUPPORTS THIS POTENTIAL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SO MINOR FLOODING ISSUES MAY BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF LARIMER COUNTY.
THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. SHOWERS MAY
WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS
OF COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF WEAK LIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY STILL AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST CORNER INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT LESS
THAN TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR MONDAY AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE A COMBINATION OF A LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING
COMBINING WITH MODEST DIURNAL CONVECTION TO MOVE SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE PLAINS. BY WEDNESDAY THE AIR MASS
SHOULD BE DRIER...BUT STILL PROBABLY A LITTLE LIFT FROM THE NEARBY
JET AND STILL SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. EVEN LESS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE WARMING...BUT STILL SOME LOW END SPRING
SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
A SURFACE LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF KDEN WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING.
A NEW SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 18Z.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE DENVER
AREA THROUGH 18Z. WINDS MAY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT KDEN AFTER
18Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND 18Z AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE DENVER AREA WILL
BE 18Z TO 00Z. HEAVY RAIN...HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 00Z AS STORMS SHIFT NORTH OF THE DENVER
AREA.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
155 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT LINGERS SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC LOW OVER THE ENTRANCE TO DELAWARE BAY AS OF 17Z WITH A WARM
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH
OF MONTAUK. PCPN IS CONFINED TO AROUND THE SFC LOW WITH LIGHT
DRIZZLE/MIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA.
STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD STRONG THIS AFTN...THOUGH SOME THINKING
HAS OCCURRED AND PER LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODEL SOUNDING...LATE
AFTN BREAKS APPEAR LIKELY.
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...HAVE
ADDED AREAS OF FOG OUTSIDE THE NY METRO AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS
FOG MAY NEED EXPANSION INTO THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AND COULD BE
DENSE AFTER MIGHT AS HAVE DELAYED PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND
SHOWERS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT BRINGS IN A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS FOR
SUNDAY AFTN. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS...BUT STILL THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT LAST VERY
LONG.
MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
QUICKLY BUILDS IN WITH THE NW FLOW. THE COLD ADVECTION ALLOWS FOR STRONG
MIXING AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALLOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REALIZE
GUSTY WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S...SLIGHT COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS...BUT CLOSER TO MODEL BLEND.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGH THAN SUNDAY...IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRENDS IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HAVE LOWERED POPS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH IS IN GOOD
COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING ANY PRECIP IS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND MAY HINDER THE
PROGRESS OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
MODELS AGREE WITH RIDGING ALOFT ON THURSDAY. WILL THEREFORE WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS...BUT THINKING IS THAT HIGH TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
UPWARD FURTHER. A COLD FRONT COULD THEN BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW CLOUDS MAY BREAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
SPOTS...RESULTING IN BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS A FEW TERMINALS.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS WITH BKN CLOUDS INTO THE EVENING.
VFR VSBYS MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT KHPN.
FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT AND
LOWERING OF CLOUDS...WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED...AND IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WOULD BE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME...ONLY INCLUDED SHOWERS AT KSWF LATE TONIGHT.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL SCOUR OUT WITH A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED.
LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OR VEER TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
MORNING AFTER 13-15Z...LATER AT KGON. SPEEDS INCREASE RAPIDLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 25 KT BY 16-17Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SUN AFTN/SUN NGT...VFR WITH NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS 30
TO POSSIBLY 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE-THU...GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN REMAINS JUST TO
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
ON THE OCEAN...THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUES.
GUSTY WNW FLOW ON SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTS TO
25 KT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. OCEAN SEAS WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 5 FT AS WELL. THUS SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL WATERS FOR SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS ON ALL WATERS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS SUNDAY
NGT. ON THE OCEAN DURING THIS TIME WILL PROBABLY BE UP TO 5 FT
BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT AT SOME POINT DURING SUNDAY NIGHT.
A GUSTY SW FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE OCEAN MONDAY AND WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (GREATER THAN 0.50 INCHES) IS EXPECTED
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH HIGH ASTRO TIDES REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY...SURGE
SHOULD DROP TO 1/2 TO 1 FT. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF WESTERN LI...QUEENS...BROOKLYN...LOWER NY HARBOR...THE TIDAL
WATERWAYS OF NE NJ...AND COASTAL FAIRFIELD AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR MODERATE FLOODING ALONG THE MOST
VULNERABLE SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES OF NASSAU COUNTY. LOCALIZED MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES OF
NORTHWEST LI AND COASTAL NEW HAVEN. WATER LEVEL ELSEWHERE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...TIDES AND SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT
RESIDUAL LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL LIKELY ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU AND POSSIBLE IN QUEENS. WATER LEVELS
SHOULD STAY BELOW MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ELSEWHERE WITH OFFSHORE WINDS.
WATER LEVELS SHOULD FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW MINOR LEVELS MONDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR CTZ009.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NYZ071.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NYZ074-075-178-179.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...DS/TONGUE
LONG TERM...JC/DS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
750 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT LINGERS SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INCREASED POPS ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT AS COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. LAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE NOT DOING A GOOD JOB AT INITIALIZING THESE
SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING IN AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MORE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.
OCCLUDED FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE DELMARVA REGION THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT AND LOW APPEAR
TO WASH OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE
COAST AND OPEN UP.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS WHEN/IF LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT
AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES ULTIMATELY GET. IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST
CHANCE OF ANY SUNSHINE IS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WEAKENS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES. IF
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S MAY BE TOO LOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE DECREASING POPS INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THE AREA SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE BRIEF AS STRATUS
MAY REDEVELOP AFTER SUNSET.
ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT.
THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AND INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE NYC METRO
AROUND DAY BREAK SUNDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE
FRONT FOR MAINLY LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. THE FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING.
MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE END UP MOSTLY SUNNY. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FAIRLY STRONG MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
AROUND 70 IN THE NYC/NJ METRO. THESE READINGS ARE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGH THAN SUNDAY...IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRENDS IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HAVE LOWERED POPS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH IS IN GOOD
COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING ANY PRECIP IS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND MAY HINDER THE
PROGRESS OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
MODELS AGREE WITH RIDGING ALOFT ON THURSDAY. WILL THEREFORE WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS...BUT THINKING IS THAT HIGH TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
UPWARD FURTHER. A COLD FRONT COULD THEN BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK OCCLUDED
FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST OR WASHES OUT THIS AFT/EVE. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS THIS MORNING...WITH VSBY VARYING BETWEEN
VFR AND MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
CIGS AND VFR VSBY EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
VFR CIGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY CITY TERMINALS.
UNCERTAINTY IN CONDS INCREASES TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS
TO CONTINUE/DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
TERMINALS. IF STRATUS DOES NOT DEVELOP...THEN MVFR/IFR GROUND FOG
WOULD BE FAVORED THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
E/NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING GRADUALLY VEER SE AND THEN S
FOR MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS OCCLUDED FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST OR WASHES OUT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING WITH
CONDITION IMPROVING TO VFR IN WAKE AND -SHRA ENDING. NW WINDS 15
TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS 30 TO POSSIBLE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVE.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE...VFR. SUB VFR IN RAIN IS POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP TUE NIGHT.
.WED...SUB VFR IN RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE CONVERTED SCA ON THE OCEAN TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS
WINDS WILL FALL WELL BELOW 25 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WESTERN
OCEAN RUNS UNTIL NOON AND THE CENTRAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HAVE EXTENDED THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
A LINGERING SE SWELL SHOULD KEEP SEES AROUND 5 FT.
GUSTY WNW FLOW ON SUNDAY MAY BRING SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT
ON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. OCEAN SEAS WILL LIKELY
BE AROUND 5 FT AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS ON ALL WATERS SHOULD FALL
BELOW SCA LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE OCEAN DURING THIS TIME
WILL PROBABLY BE UP TO 5 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT AT SOME
POINT DURING SUNDAY NIGHT.
A GUSTY SW FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE OCEAN MONDAY AND WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (GREATER THAN 0.50 INCHES) IS EXPECTED
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH HIGH ASTRO TIDES REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY...SURGE
SHOULD DROP TO 1/2 TO 1 FT. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF WESTERN LI...QUEENS...BROOKLYN...LOWER NY HARBOR...THE TIDAL
WATERWAYS OF NE NJ...AND COASTAL FAIRFIELD AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR MODERATE FLOODING ALONG THE MOST
VULNERABLE SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES OF NASSAU COUNTY. LOCALIZED MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES OF
NORTHWEST LI AND COASTAL NEW HAVEN. WATER LEVEL ELSEWHERE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...TIDES AND SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT
RESIDUAL LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL LIKELY ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU AND POSSIBLE IN QUEENS. WATER LEVELS
SHOULD STAY BELOW MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ELSEWHERE WITH OFFSHORE WINDS.
WATER LEVELS SHOULD FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW MINOR LEVELS MONDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR CTZ009.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NYZ071.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NYZ074-075-178-179.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC/DS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
609 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT LINGERS SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INCREASED POPS ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT AS COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. LAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE NOT DOING A GOOD JOB AT INITIALIZING THESE
SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING IN AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MORE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.
OCCLUDED FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE DELMARVA REGION THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT AND LOW APPEAR
TO WASH OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE
COAST AND OPEN UP.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS WHEN/IF LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT
AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES ULTIMATELY GET. IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST
CHANCE OF ANY SUNSHINE IS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WEAKENS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES. IF
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S MAY BE TOO LOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE DECREASING POPS INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THE AREA SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE BRIEF AS STRATUS
MAY REDEVELOP AFTER SUNSET.
ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT.
THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AND INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE NYC METRO
AROUND DAY BREAK SUNDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE
FRONT FOR MAINLY LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. THE FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING.
MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE END UP MOSTLY SUNNY. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FAIRLY STRONG MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
AROUND 70 IN THE NYC/NJ METRO. THESE READINGS ARE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGH THAN SUNDAY...IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRENDS IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HAVE LOWERED POPS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH IS IN GOOD
COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING ANY PRECIP IS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND MAY HINDER THE
PROGRESS OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
MODELS AGREE WITH RIDGING ALOFT ON THURSDAY. WILL THEREFORE WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS...BUT THINKING IS THAT HIGH TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
UPWARD FURTHER. A COLD FRONT COULD THEN BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING
WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
OCCLUDED FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST OR WASHES OUT THIS
AFT/EVE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH VSBY VARYING BETWEEN
MVFR AND IFR IN IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE. LOCAL AND TRANSIENT LIFR/VLIFR
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE LOW CIGS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS IMPROVE. POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TO RETURN
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS.
E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING...SLIGHTLY STRONGER AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS...SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER SE AND THEN S FOR MOST
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST OR WASHES OUT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FOR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS. INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE...VFR. SUB VFR IN RAIN IS POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP TUE NIGHT.
.WED...SUB VFR IN RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE CONVERTED SCA ON THE OCEAN TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS
WINDS WILL FALL WELL BELOW 25 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WESTERN
OCEAN RUNS UNTIL NOON AND THE CENTRAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HAVE EXTENDED THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
A LINGERING SE SWELL SHOULD KEEP SEES AROUND 5 FT.
GUSTY WNW FLOW ON SUNDAY MAY BRING SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT
ON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. OCEAN SEAS WILL LIKELY
BE AROUND 5 FT AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS ON ALL WATERS SHOULD FALL
BELOW SCA LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE OCEAN DURING THIS TIME
WILL PROBABLY BE UP TO 5 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT AT SOME
POINT DURING SUNDAY NIGHT.
A GUSTY SW FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE OCEAN MONDAY AND WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (GREATER THAN 0.50 INCHES) IS EXPECTED
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH HIGH ASTRO TIDES REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY...SURGE
SHOULD DROP TO 1/2 TO 1 FT. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF WESTERN LI...QUEENS...BROOKLYN...LOWER NY HARBOR...THE TIDAL
WATERWAYS OF NE NJ...AND COASTAL FAIRFIELD AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR MODERATE FLOODING ALONG THE MOST
VULNERABLE SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES OF NASSAU COUNTY. LOCALIZED MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES OF
NORTHWEST LI AND COASTAL NEW HAVEN. WATER LEVEL ELSEWHERE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...TIDES AND SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT
RESIDUAL LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL LIKELY ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU AND POSSIBLE IN QUEENS. WATER LEVELS
SHOULD STAY BELOW MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ELSEWHERE WITH OFFSHORE WINDS.
WATER LEVELS SHOULD FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW MINOR LEVELS MONDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR CTZ009.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NYZ071.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NYZ074-075-178-179.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC/DS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
838 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 838 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016
Showers associated with a frontal boundary across southern
Illinois continue to spread northeastward across central IL this
evening. Although the surface boundary is progged to move very
little overnight...a shortwave aloft will produce enough lift and
warm advection aloft for these showers to continue to spread
northeastward...reaching northwards of I-74 by midnight. Initially
there will be little lightning with these showers, but
observations show lightning across Missouri from KC-Quincy and
some of this activity could spread across central IL late in the
evening and overnight. Lows expected in the mid 50s despite
following a cooler day as thickening cloud cover won`t allow much
cooling to take place. Southeast winds around 10 mph will continue
through the night through central IL which will remain north of
the warm front. South of I-70, winds may switch to southerly if
the front moves that far by morning. Only minor updates needed
this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a stationary frontal boundary
extending from northeast Kansas to southern Kentucky. As a short
wave trough evident on latest water vapor imagery over
Oklahoma/Kansas lifts northward, it will give the front a push
northward tonight as well. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have
already developed along the front in association with the
approaching wave across eastern Kansas into central/western
Missouri...and this activity is expected to develop/spread
northeastward into central Illinois this evening. With a deeper
fetch of Gulf of Mexico moisture now apparent on water vapor imagery
and surface dewpoints across the Plains in the lower to middle 60s,
there will be adequate moisture available for precip development
tonight. The main difference between the models is how quickly the
rain arrives. The HRRR has been consistently faster than the other
models, with showers arriving as far north as the I-74 corridor as
early as 03-04z. Meanwhile, the 12z NAM had been a couple hours
slower, generally keeping the far northern CWA dry until around
midnight. The 18z run of the NAM has quickened the process and now
looks very similar to the HRRR. As a result, will be adjusting PoPs
to carry likely/categorical everywhere north of the I-70 corridor by
mid to late evening. The rain will lift northward through the night
and will likely be mainly along/north of I-74 by early Monday
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016
The northward progression of a warm front will highlight the
day on Monday, and signal increasing temps and dewpoints for the
first half of the week, along with chances for strong storms.
Monday morning will see a band of ongoing convection lifting north
across central Illinois ahead of the front, with precip generally
north of I-72 by sunrise. The mid-morning may see a break in the
rainfall for a majority of our forecast area. Storm chances will
increase from SW to NE late Monday morning and afternoon as an upper
level wave progresses eastward along the warm front. Our entire area
is included in a Marginal Risk (5%) of severe storms Monday
afternoon/eve. Instability params are pointing toward areas west
of Springfield to Peoria having higher instability values than our
eastern counties. MUCAPES of 1000-1400 J/kg could develop in the
west by afternoon if some sunshine develops during the break in
the rain Monday morning. Bulk shear values are marginal, in the
20-35kt range with the lower values in W IL and higher near
Indiana. Will keep likely PoPs Monday afternoon and categorical
PoPs Mon night as a strong upper level wave progresses across IL
into Tuesday morning. Storm chances will diminish by mid-morning
on Tuesday, but increase again Tues afternoon as a 500mb shortwave
lifts across central IL. MUCAPES on Tues afternoon look to climb
into the 2000-3000 J/kg range, with bulk shear of 30-35kt. The SPC
Marginal risk is currently south of I-72, which may get changed to
a Slight risk before Tuesday arrives if current instability trends
continue. We kept likely PoPs Tues afternoon, with large hail and
damaging winds possible with the strongest storms. Low level
helicity values appear supportive of rotating updrafts, especially
in east-central and southeast IL.
A NAM is advertising a break in the rain/storms for Tuesday night
and Wed morning, before the next wave of low pressure reaches IL Wed
afternoon. Will keep lower chance PoPs during that time to account
for possible scattered redevelopment along lingering boundaries.
Our area will remain in the warm sector Monday afternoon through
Wednesday, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s Monday
through Tuesday, then climbing into the mid to upper 60s on
Wednesday. That will help fuel another round of strong to severe
storms late Wed afternoon but primarily Wed night, as MUCAPES
possibly reach 3000-4500 J/kg across our forecast area, with the
highest instability in southeast IL. Bulk shear values in SE IL will
be marginal again, with 20-35kts indicated in the 12z NAM output. We
ramped up PoPs Wed night to likely over most of our counties, as a
cold front pushes from west to east, reaching just east of I-57 by
12z/7am Thursday.
Cooler and drier air will filter into Illinois behind that cold
front, bringing a break in the rain for Thur and Thursday night.
Highs will be in the low to mid 70s on Thurs, with highs on
Friday in the upper 60s N of I-74 and low 70s S of I-70. Rain
chances will increase Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front
arrives from the Northern Plains. There are differing solutions in
the extended models about the path of the surface low, but timing
still looks close for Fri aftn and Fri night rain.
Dry and much cooler conditions are projected for next weekend,
with highs only in the upper 50s to low 60s on Saturday, and
overnight lows in the lower 40s Saturday night. Highs on Sunday
look to climb a few degrees above Saturday, as southerly winds
develop ahead of the next rain producer for Sunday night into
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016
Ceilings will gradually lower and showers/isolated thunderstorms
will increase from the southwest this evening as a warm front
lifts northward toward the area. Current timing of the feature and
model guidance suggests ceilings will decrease to MVFR category
by 5-7Z. Later in the night, model time-height cross sections
showing nearly saturated conditions below 1000 ft AGL
suggesting IFR conditions, however much of the current statistical
guidance suggests IFR not developing until 12Z. Given the
relatively dry air in the region this evening, will keep
conditions MVFR through the night and into the daytime period for
now. IFR ceilings are a possibility, however, late in the night
and amendments may be needed depending on the development of the
warm frontal feature overnight. The rain/low clouds will tend to
lift north of the TAF sites by Monday morning, so have raised
ceilings at most sites to VFR and dropped predominant rain mention
after the 12Z. Increasing chances for thunderstorms can be
expected in the afternoon. Winds generally SE 8-14 kts through the
period.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
635 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
300 PM...CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN MO WILL CONTINUE
LIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT LIKELY ARRIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
CWA LATE THIS EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THERE HAS APPEARED TO BE A
SHARP CUT OFF TO THIS PRECIP THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE HOW FAR
NORTH THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND BY MORNING. DIDN/T MAKE MANY CHANGES
WITH LIKELY POPS EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY RFD/JOT/RZL. STILL APPEARS
THERE MAY BE A LULL FROM MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE WARM FRONT BEGINS LIFTING NORTH ACCOMPANIED BY
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE. BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND DURATION
OF ANY LULL AND FOR THAT REASON MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS UNTIL
LATER AFTERNOON WHEN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MONDAY EVENING WITH A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA FOR DAY2. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
NO CHANGE TO PWATS IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. MODEL QPF SHOWS THE
HEAVIEST AXIS FROM WEST/NORTHWEST IL BACK INTO PARTS OF IOWA.
TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY END UP SIMILAR TO MONDAY...DIFFICULT
TO SEE MUCH WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
SO PERHAPS A LULL MIDDAY BUT WITH SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON NOW THAT THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPS MAY QUICKLY DROP THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLEAR SKIES...BUT
SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SPREAD NORTH. WITH THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...TEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S WITH MAV SUGGESTING LOW/MID 50S...THUS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HIGHS MONDAY. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S
TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS AT THE LAKE WITH EASTERLY FLOW. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
300 PM...ANY ACTIVITY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS TO END
WITH POSSIBLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. IF
WEDNESDAY PANS OUT DRY WITH SOME PARTIAL SUN...IT WILL LIKELY BE
QUITE WARM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT/LOW. GUIDANCE
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE LAKE WITH EITHER
A LAKE BREEZE OR AN EASTERLY GRADIENT DEVELOPING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THEN POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DRY PERIOD DOES NOW APPEAR TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THURSDAY POSSIBLY BECOMING BREEZY/WINDY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ECMWF/GFS HAVE
BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS AND NOW SHOWING -2C TO -4C
AT 850MB BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH VERY SLOWLY MODERATES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE IMPORTANT BUT LOWS
IN AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 30S SEEM POSSIBLE AND THIS COULD RESULT
IN SOME FROST. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
LAKE BREEZE WHICH EARLIER FLIRTED WITH ORD BEFORE GETTING SHOVED
BACK EAST IS NOW STARTING TO INCH WESTWARD AGAIN. AS GRADIENT
RELAXES TOWARD SUNSET ANTICIPATE THIS WESTWARD MOTION TO SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH WINDS LIKELY FLOPPING BACK TO EASTERLY THIS EVENING.
DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EAST/EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE
TONIGHT. MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RAIN WILL GET AND GIVEN THE DRY AIR ITS POSSIBLE RAIN MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE PERIODIC SHOWERS AT
JUST ABOUT ANY POINT IN TIME MONDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN PROBABLY COMING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. EASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP MONDAY AND ATTAIN
GUSTINESS...LIKELY INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE BY MIDDAY. LOOK FOR
GRADUALLY FALLING CIGS...POTENTIALLY TO IFR MONDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL IS MORE PREVALENT.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
242 PM CDT
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES
EASTWARD. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHILE A SERIES OF LOWS SLOWLY DRIFT EAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE WEEK. THESE
LOWS MAY MERGE MIDWEEK BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...APPROACHING 25/30 KT MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY LATE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM
NORTHERN CANADA.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
303 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a stationary frontal boundary
extending from northeast Kansas to southern Kentucky. As a short
wave trough evident on latest water vapor imagery over
Oklahoma/Kansas lifts northward, it will give the front a push
northward tonight as well. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have
already developed along the front in association with the
approaching wave across eastern Kansas into central/western
Missouri...and this activity is expected to develop/spread
northeastward into central Illinois this evening. With a deeper
fetch of Gulf of Mexico moisture now apparent on water vapor imagery
and surface dewpoints across the Plains in the lower to middle 60s,
there will be adequate moisture available for precip development
tonight. The main difference between the models is how quickly the
rain arrives. The HRRR has been consistently faster than the other
models, with showers arriving as far north as the I-74 corridor as
early as 03-04z. Meanwhile, the 12z NAM had been a couple hours
slower, generally keeping the far northern CWA dry until around
midnight. The 18z run of the NAM has quickened the process and now
looks very similar to the HRRR. As a result, will be adjusting PoPs
to carry likely/categorical everywhere north of the I-70 corridor by
mid to late evening. The rain will lift northward through the night
and will likely be mainly along/north of I-74 by early Monday
morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016
The northward progression of a warm front will highlight the
day on Monday, and signal increasing temps and dewpoints for the
first half of the week, along with chances for strong storms.
Monday morning will see a band of ongoing convection lifting north
across central Illinois ahead of the front, with precip generally
north of I-72 by sunrise. The mid-morning may see a break in the
rainfall for a majority of our forecast area. Storm chances will
increase from SW to NE late Monday morning and afternoon as an upper
level wave progresses eastward along the warm front. Our entire area
is included in a Marginal Risk (5%) of severe storms Monday
afternoon/eve. Instability params are pointing toward areas west
of Springfield to Peoria having higher instability values than our
eastern counties. MUCAPES of 1000-1400 J/kg could develop in the
west by afternoon if some sunshine develops during the break in
the rain Monday morning. Bulk shear values are marginal, in the
20-35kt range with the lower values in W IL and higher near
Indiana. Will keep likely PoPs Monday afternoon and categorical
PoPs Mon night as a strong upper level wave progresses across IL
into Tuesday morning. Storm chances will diminish by mid-morning
on Tuesday, but increase again Tues afternoon as a 500mb shortwave
lifts across central IL. MUCAPES on Tues afternoon look to climb
into the 2000-3000 J/kg range, with bulk shear of 30-35kt. The SPC
Marginal risk is currently south of I-72, which may get changed to
a Slight risk before Tuesday arrives if current instability trends
continue. We kept likely PoPs Tues afternoon, with large hail and
damaging winds possible with the strongest storms. Low level
helicity values appear supportive of rotating updrafts, especially
in east-central and southeast IL.
A NAM is advertising a break in the rain/storms for Tuesday night
and Wed morning, before the next wave of low pressure reaches IL Wed
afternoon. Will keep lower chance PoPs during that time to account
for possible scattered redevelopment along lingering boundaries.
Our area will remain in the warm sector Monday afternoon through
Wednesday, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s Monday
through Tuesday, then climbing into the mid to upper 60s on
Wednesday. That will help fuel another round of strong to severe
storms late Wed afternoon but primarily Wed night, as MUCAPES
possibly reach 3000-4500 J/kg across our forecast area, with the
highest instability in southeast IL. Bulk shear values in SE IL will
be marginal again, with 20-35kts indicated in the 12z NAM output. We
ramped up PoPs Wed night to likely over most of our counties, as a
cold front pushes from west to east, reaching just east of I-57 by
12z/7am Thursday.
Cooler and drier air will filter into Illinois behind that cold
front, bringing a break in the rain for Thur and Thursday night.
Highs will be in the low to mid 70s on Thurs, with highs on
Friday in the upper 60s N of I-74 and low 70s S of I-70. Rain
chances will increase Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front
arrives from the Northern Plains. There are differing solutions in
the extended models about the path of the surface low, but timing
still looks close for Fri aftn and Fri night rain.
Dry and much cooler conditions are projected for next weekend,
with highs only in the upper 50s to low 60s on Saturday, and
overnight lows in the lower 40s Saturday night. Highs on Sunday
look to climb a few degrees above Saturday, as southerly winds
develop ahead of the next rain producer for Sunday night into
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at the central Illinois terminals
through the afternoon before a warm front begins to lift northward
toward the area tonight. Models have been consistently showing
showers and thunderstorms developing north of the front across
Missouri later this afternoon, then spreading/developing
northeastward into central Illinois during the evening. Still some
discrepancies about how fast this process will unfold, but general
consensus brings scattered showers into KSPI by 02z...then further
north to KPIA by around 06z. Main forecast challenge will be
how low the ceilings will drop with the rain later tonight. HRRR
suggests only MVFR, while the NAM points to a more pessimistic IFR
forecast. Given increasing moisture along/north of the approaching
warm front, prefer lower ceilings. As such, have introduced IFR at
KSPI by 05z, then further north to KPIA by 10z. The rain/low
clouds will tend to lift north of the TAF sites by Monday morning,
so have raised ceilings to VFR and dropped predominant rain
mention after the 12-15z time frame.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1255 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...1045 AM CDT
THE COLD FRONT SHOWS UP VERY NICELY ON KLOT WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING...CRUISING ALONG INTO KANKAKEE...GRUNDY...AND LASALLE
COUNTIES ALREADY. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS
TODAY. THERE IS SOME WEAK ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON SUCH THAT SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH. INSTABILITY LINGERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FROM
SOUTHERN LASALLE/LIVINGSTON EAST TO BENTON COUNTY AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES THOUGH...BUT WITH THE FIRST WAVE THIS
AFTERNOON APPEARS THE WINDOW FOR MUCH WILL BE SMALL AND LIMITED TO
THE FIRST FEW AFTERNOON HOURS. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN...JUST IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS...BUT THIS WILL AGAIN BE FOCUSED IN OUR SOUTHERN/WESTERN
ZONES. OTHERWISE EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL WITH THE FRONT THEN HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY TODAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
KMD
&&
.SHORT TERM...
343 AM CDT
THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE NEAR TERM...ADDITIONAL CHANCES LATER TODAY...AND
TEMP TRENDS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDGING ALONG WEAK UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION HELPING TO STEER SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THIS TIME. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICTING THIS AREA OF PRECIP SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST
FROM AREAS NEAR ROCKFORD EAST TO THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. AS THIS
DEVELOPMENT HAS APPROACHED OVERNIGHT IT HAS BEEN WEAKENING...PER
WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND DIMINISHING LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE BUT MORE SO AS
MAIN FORCING/WAVE EXIT TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH FURTHER DIMINISHING
IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THIS SHOULD STILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER TO PUSH THROUGH REMAINING AREAS IN
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE MAINTAINED THUNDER WORDING THIS MORNING
DESPITE THE DIMINISHING TREND...GIVEN INSTABILITY AXIS CONTINUES
TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT.
BEYOND THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...CONFIDENCE DOES LOWER WITH
REGARDS TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS SHORT
TERM/HIRES GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY VARIES. HOWEVER...LIKELY
SCENARIO WILL BE FOR THIS INITIAL PRECIP TO EXIT/DIMINISH BUT
WITH THEN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG
SOUTHWARD MOVING SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND INITIALLY BE MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT THEN FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH INTO MID
MORNING AS THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. WITH THE LACK OF COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...HAVE KEPT POPS LOW. A DRY PERIOD WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL FOCUS TURNS TOWARDS
UPSTREAM FAST MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR
ADDITIONAL AND MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT
LIKELY TO BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THAT TIME THIS
STRONGER DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. DO
BRING BACK CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION OF THUNDER FROM AREAS IN
LASALLE...LIVINGSTON...AND FORD FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA MORE SO IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LINGERING
MID LEVEL BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE COULD AID IN SOME LIGHT/ISOLATED
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND
HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING.
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH TEMP TRENDS THIS MORNING...AS ANTICIPATED
BOUNDARY TO USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS TO THE CWA. THIS COULD LIKELY
OCCUR QUICK TOO...WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35
MPH THIS MORNING POST FROPA. THESE STRONG WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS
WILL BE FELT THIS MOST FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE...WHERE TEMPS WILL
LIKELY GO FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOW 50S IN A MATTER OF HOURS. AREAS
ELSEWHERE WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT SHOULD STILL STAY IN THE
60S.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
343 AM CDT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKING UNSETTLED AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE
CONUS DRAWS CLOSER TO THE REGION. SHOULD SEE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MORE SO ON MONDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD SWING THROUGH. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AT MOST WEAK
AND DONT REALLY ANTICIPATE THUNDER TO REALLY BE PRESENT SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THUNDER WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE ON MONDAY WITH
A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS PUSHING EAST. STILL LOWER
CONFIDENCE WITH HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE THROUGH MID WEEK BUT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
CONCERN FOR THE AIRPSPACE:
-GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPEICALLY AT ORD/MDW
-SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING
A QUIETER PERIOD IS COMING FOR THE TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS...A BRIEF REPRIEVE BEFORE AN ACTIVE FEW DAYS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH WILL
LEAVE ALL TERMINALS WITH A GUSTY NE TO NORTH WIND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LAREGLY REMAIN CONFINED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WHICH WOULD KEEP THE TAF SITES DRY OTHER THAN MAYBE A
BRIEF SPRINKLE IN THE NEXT HOUR. THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED WELL
SOUTH/WEST AND ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTEROON. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT BUT AGAIN SHOWERS LARGELY SOUTH OF
THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE LIKELY PEAKED AS PRESSURE RISES BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW ARE DIMINISHING. EXPECT THE DOWNWARD TREND TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT
WEAKENING WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY...THEN THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH
AND A WEAK LOW WILL PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...TURNING
WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERLY. AFTER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HAZE FROM
THE CANADIAN WILDFIRE DRIFTING THROUGH.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
307 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE STRAITS OF MACKINAW WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING WEST/SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE
EAST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH WINDS QUICKLY TURNING FROM NORTHWEST/WEST TO
NORTH. THE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND SUGGEST SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30KT WITH PERHAPS A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR THE OPEN WATERS AND MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE GRADIENT IS BRIEF AND EXPECT BY LATE AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL
HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH. WITH THE WIND DIRECTION TURNING NORTH THE
WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE ESPECIALLY
ALONG BOTH THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP SMALL CRAFT HAZARDS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVES TO ALSO SUBSIDE
TO AROUND 1 TO 3 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1038 AM CDT Sat May 7 2016
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to track southeastward
along/north of the I-74 corridor this morning. 1525z radar imagery
shows the most concentrated area of showers from Champaign to
Danville...with a lull in the precip further upstream. HRRR has
been advertising this temporary break in the precip quite well
this morning...focusing its main convective development further
upstream across western Iowa. Latest radar mosaic is already
showing showers/thunder forming north of Kansas City across
western Iowa/northwest Missouri...and this activity is expected
to track/develop further E/SE into central Illinois this
afternoon. HRRR suggests scattered thunderstorms will track
along/south of a Macomb...to Lincoln...to Paris line between
20z/3pm and 01z/8pm. With surface dewpoints pooling in the upper
50s/lower 60s ahead of the slowly approaching cold front, SBCAPES
will climb to around 1500J/kg. At the same time, 0-6km bulk shear
will increase to between 40 and 50kt. The combination of moderate
instability/shear will be sufficient to support a few strong to
potentially severe storms across the southern half of the KILX CWA
late this afternoon...with the main threats being gusty winds and
large hail. Current forecast has a good handle on the situation,
so only minor tweaks are needed at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT Sat May 7 2016
Pcpn remnants will continue to move southeast across northern IL and
into northern parts of central IL this morning. These showers and
thunderstorms formed along a sfc boundary that is still located back
across IA. The low pressure area associated with this front will
move across the Great Lakes region, dragging the front into central
IL later this morning. This will become the primary focus for
additional shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon.
Scattered showers will remain possible in northern parts of the CWA
this morning and into early this afternoon. Believe pcpn will become
likely this afternoon along and south of a Jacksonville to Paris
line. Believe this is where the best forcing and dynamics will be
for this afternoon. There is a slight risk that some of the storms
this afternoon could be severe with hail and damaging winds
possible.
Temps today will be divided by the front with highest temps in the
lower 80s south of the front and lower to middle 70s north of the
front in the Peoria and Bloomington/Normal areas. Winds will be out
of the west ahead of the front, but then become northerly once the
front passes.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT Sat May 7 2016
After a recent dry stretch of weather over central and southeast IL,
more unsettled weather pattern takes shape starting today through at
least the middle of next week. Have likely chances of showers and
thunderstorms over southern CWA early this evening with slight
chance of severe storms from a Jacksonville to Springfield to Paris
line south with 15% risk of large hail and damaging winds into mid
evening. SPC appears to side toward the more unstable NAM model
which has MUCapes of 1-2k ft in southern CWA late this afternoon and
early evening. Instability wanes and shifts south of CWA by
03Z/10 pm as frontal boundary shifts further south of central IL
and convection chances to diminish from north to south during late
evening and overnight. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 50s with
upper 40s to near 50F from I-74 north.
Weak surface high pressure of 1016 mb drifting east across the Ohio
river valley Sunday and frontal boundary to start shifting back to
the northeast toward southwest IL Sunday afternoon. So slight
chances of showers/thunderstorms Sunday morning increase to 30-40%
chances Sunday afternoon over sw CWA south of I-74. Cooler highs
Sunday in the upper 60s with sw CWA around 70F, which is 3-5F cooler
than normal. Warm front to lift northeast into central IL overnight
Sunday night with likely chances of showers and thunderstorms, then
the warm front lifts north of CWA on Monday with warmer highs in the
70s and more humid air returning (dewpoints rising into lower 60s),
along with continued high chances of showers and thunderstorms with
highest pops west of I-57. SPC has marginal risk of severe storms
from Springfield sw late Monday afternoon and evening where better
instability is.
Low pressure over the central plains on Monday slowly lifts
northward on Tuesday and Tue night keeping IL in a warm/moist
southerly flow along with continued high chances of showers and
thunderstorms in unstable airmass. Highs Tue mostly in the mid 70s.
Warm and unsettled weather pattern looks to continue into Wed with
more showers and thunderstorms, then a cold front pushes east by Wed
night and best chances of convection starts to shift east of IL and
temps to cool back down a bit but still be pretty close to normal
levels. Only have slight pops on Thu night and Fri so most areas
appear dry then.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016
Main aviation forecast concern will be convective chances this
afternoon/evening. 17z surface analysis shows cold front sinking
southward into north-central Illinois...with primary zone of
showers/isolated thunder currently along the I-74 corridor. Have
carried VCTS at KPIA/KBMI/KCMI through 22/23z accordingly. Later
in the day, the front will slip further south and convection
currently along the Iowa/Missouri border will track eastward into
portions of central Illinois. HRRR suggests this activity will
primarily impact KSPI and KDEC between 21z and 00z. After that, a
lull in the precip is expected through much of the evening before
warm-advection showers develop along the stalled frontal boundary
overnight. Forecast soundings show VFR ceilings through the entire
period. Winds will initially be from the northwest at 10-15 kt
this afternoon, then will veer to the northeast this evening,
before becoming light/variable overnight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1053 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
1045 AM CDT
THE COLD FRONT SHOWS UP VERY NICELY ON KLOT WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING...CRUISING ALONG INTO KANKAKEE...GRUNDY...AND LASALLE
COUNTIES ALREADY. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS
TODAY. THERE IS SOME WEAK ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON SUCH THAT SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH. INSTABILITY LINGERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FROM
SOUTHERN LASALLE/LIVINGSTON EAST TO BENTON COUNTY AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES THOUGH...BUT WITH THE FIRST WAVE THIS
AFTERNOON APPEARS THE WINDOW FOR MUCH WILL BE SMALL AND LIMITED TO
THE FIRST FEW AFTERNOON HOURS. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN...JUST IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS...BUT THIS WILL AGAIN BE FOCUSED IN OUR SOUTHERN/WESTERN
ZONES. OTHERWISE EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL WITH THE FRONT THEN HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY TODAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
KMD
&&
.SHORT TERM...
343 AM CDT
THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE NEAR TERM...ADDITIONAL CHANCES LATER TODAY...AND
TEMP TRENDS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDGING ALONG WEAK UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION HELPING TO STEER SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THIS TIME. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICTING THIS AREA OF PRECIP SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST
FROM AREAS NEAR ROCKFORD EAST TO THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. AS THIS
DEVELOPMENT HAS APPROACHED OVERNIGHT IT HAS BEEN WEAKENING...PER
WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND DIMINISHING LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE BUT MORE SO AS
MAIN FORCING/WAVE EXIT TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH FURTHER DIMINISHING
IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THIS SHOULD STILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER TO PUSH THROUGH REMAINING AREAS IN
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE MAINTAINED THUNDER WORDING THIS MORNING
DESPITE THE DIMINISHING TREND...GIVEN INSTABILITY AXIS CONTINUES
TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT.
BEYOND THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...CONFIDENCE DOES LOWER WITH
REGARDS TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS SHORT
TERM/HIRES GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY VARIES. HOWEVER...LIKELY
SCENARIO WILL BE FOR THIS INITIAL PRECIP TO EXIT/DIMINISH BUT
WITH THEN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG
SOUTHWARD MOVING SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND INITIALLY BE MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT THEN FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH INTO MID
MORNING AS THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. WITH THE LACK OF COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...HAVE KEPT POPS LOW. A DRY PERIOD WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL FOCUS TURNS TOWARDS
UPSTREAM FAST MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR
ADDITIONAL AND MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT
LIKELY TO BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THAT TIME THIS
STRONGER DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. DO
BRING BACK CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION OF THUNDER FROM AREAS IN
LASALLE...LIVINGSTON...AND FORD FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA MORE SO IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LINGERING
MID LEVEL BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE COULD AID IN SOME LIGHT/ISOLATED
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND
HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING.
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH TEMP TRENDS THIS MORNING...AS ANTICIPATED
BOUNDARY TO USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS TO THE CWA. THIS COULD LIKELY
OCCUR QUICK TOO...WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35
MPH THIS MORNING POST FROPA. THESE STRONG WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS
WILL BE FELT THIS MOST FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE...WHERE TEMPS WILL
LIKELY GO FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOW 50S IN A MATTER OF HOURS. AREAS
ELSEWHERE WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT SHOULD STILL STAY IN THE
60S.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
343 AM CDT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKING UNSETTLED AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE
CONUS DRAWS CLOSER TO THE REGION. SHOULD SEE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MORE SO ON MONDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD SWING THROUGH. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AT MOST WEAK
AND DONT REALLY ANTICIPATE THUNDER TO REALLY BE PRESENT SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THUNDER WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE ON MONDAY WITH
A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS PUSHING EAST. STILL LOWER
CONFIDENCE WITH HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE THROUGH MID WEEK BUT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PRECIP/CONVECTION CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH TOWARDS KRFD AND TO
THE WEST...AND MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
THE CONVECTION TRENDS WILL REMAIN WEST OR ORD/MDW THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THE
POTENTIAL REMAINS THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND SLIDE SOUTH
WITH THE FRONT. COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GREAT...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE VCSH RATHER THAN PREVAILING PRECIP. THE FRONT HAS
ALREADY PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND WINDS HAVE QUICKLY
FLIPPED FROM WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EXPECT THIS TO ARRIVE AT
ORD/MDW AROUND THE 14Z TIMEFRAME AND INITIALLY PUSH WINDS TO A
010 DIRECTION. THEN BY 15Z WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY TO A
030 OR 040 DIRECTION. IN ADDITION WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-16KT AND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25KT. GUSTS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN
17-20KT AT TIMES. PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISH AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES BY MIDDAY...AND WINDS TURN TO 050-060 DIRECTION. THEN
LATER TONIGHT EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME VARIABLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
307 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE STRAITS OF MACKINAW WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING WEST/SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE
EAST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH WINDS QUICKLY TURNING FROM NORTHWEST/WEST TO
NORTH. THE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND SUGGEST SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30KT WITH PERHAPS A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR THE OPEN WATERS AND MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE GRADIENT IS BRIEF AND EXPECT BY LATE AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL
HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH. WITH THE WIND DIRECTION TURNING NORTH THE
WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE ESPECIALLY
ALONG BOTH THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP SMALL CRAFT HAZARDS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVES TO ALSO SUBSIDE
TO AROUND 1 TO 3 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1038 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1038 AM CDT Sat May 7 2016
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to track southeastward
along/north of the I-74 corridor this morning. 1525z radar imagery
shows the most concentrated area of showers from Champaign to
Danville...with a lull in the precip further upstream. HRRR has
been advertising this temporary break in the precip quite well
this morning...focusing its main convective development further
upstream across western Iowa. Latest radar mosaic is already
showing showers/thunder forming north of Kansas City across
western Iowa/northwest Missouri...and this activity is expected
to track/develop further E/SE into central Illinois this
afternoon. HRRR suggests scattered thunderstorms will track
along/south of a Macomb...to Lincoln...to Paris line between
20z/3pm and 01z/8pm. With surface dewpoints pooling in the upper
50s/lower 60s ahead of the slowly approaching cold front, SBCAPES
will climb to around 1500J/kg. At the same time, 0-6km bulk shear
will increase to between 40 and 50kt. The combination of moderate
instability/shear will be sufficient to support a few strong to
potentially severe storms across the southern half of the KILX CWA
late this afternoon...with the main threats being gusty winds and
large hail. Current forecast has a good handle on the situation,
so only minor tweaks are needed at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT Sat May 7 2016
Pcpn remnants will continue to move southeast across northern IL and
into northern parts of central IL this morning. These showers and
thunderstorms formed along a sfc boundary that is still located back
across IA. The low pressure area associated with this front will
move across the Great Lakes region, dragging the front into central
IL later this morning. This will become the primary focus for
additional shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon.
Scattered showers will remain possible in northern parts of the CWA
this morning and into early this afternoon. Believe pcpn will become
likely this afternoon along and south of a Jacksonville to Paris
line. Believe this is where the best forcing and dynamics will be
for this afternoon. There is a slight risk that some of the storms
this afternoon could be severe with hail and damaging winds
possible.
Temps today will be divided by the front with highest temps in the
lower 80s south of the front and lower to middle 70s north of the
front in the Peoria and Bloomington/Normal areas. Winds will be out
of the west ahead of the front, but then become northerly once the
front passes.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT Sat May 7 2016
After a recent dry stretch of weather over central and southeast IL,
more unsettled weather pattern takes shape starting today through at
least the middle of next week. Have likely chances of showers and
thunderstorms over southern CWA early this evening with slight
chance of severe storms from a Jacksonville to Springfield to Paris
line south with 15% risk of large hail and damaging winds into mid
evening. SPC appears to side toward the more unstable NAM model
which has MUCapes of 1-2k ft in southern CWA late this afternoon and
early evening. Instability wanes and shifts south of CWA by
03Z/10 pm as frontal boundary shifts further south of central IL
and convection chances to diminish from north to south during late
evening and overnight. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 50s with
upper 40s to near 50F from I-74 north.
Weak surface high pressure of 1016 mb drifting east across the Ohio
river valley Sunday and frontal boundary to start shifting back to
the northeast toward southwest IL Sunday afternoon. So slight
chances of showers/thunderstorms Sunday morning increase to 30-40%
chances Sunday afternoon over sw CWA south of I-74. Cooler highs
Sunday in the upper 60s with sw CWA around 70F, which is 3-5F cooler
than normal. Warm front to lift northeast into central IL overnight
Sunday night with likely chances of showers and thunderstorms, then
the warm front lifts north of CWA on Monday with warmer highs in the
70s and more humid air returning (dewpoints rising into lower 60s),
along with continued high chances of showers and thunderstorms with
highest pops west of I-57. SPC has marginal risk of severe storms
from Springfield sw late Monday afternoon and evening where better
instability is.
Low pressure over the central plains on Monday slowly lifts
northward on Tuesday and Tue night keeping IL in a warm/moist
southerly flow along with continued high chances of showers and
thunderstorms in unstable airmass. Highs Tue mostly in the mid 70s.
Warm and unsettled weather pattern looks to continue into Wed with
more showers and thunderstorms, then a cold front pushes east by Wed
night and best chances of convection starts to shift east of IL and
temps to cool back down a bit but still be pretty close to normal
levels. Only have slight pops on Thu night and Fri so most areas
appear dry then.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 656 AM CDT Sat May 7 2016
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across the area this
morning. Will have VCTS at PIA/BMI/CMI with just VCSH at
SPI/DEC...all based on radar trends. There should be a short break
in the pcpn later this morning as the front moves south of the TAF
sites. When this occurs, winds will go from west-southwest to
northwest with some gusts around 20kts. The front will become
active again this afternoon and given the uncertainty as to where
it will be and where storms will develop on the front, have just
gone with VCTS at all sites for now. Later forecasts can refine as
more details become known. Storms will diminish in the evening,
but scattered showers will still be around all TAF sites. At
PIA/BMI/CMI pcpn should diminish for the overnight hours. However,
based on model data at SPI/DEC the pcpn could continue into the
overnight hours. Winds will become lighter during the evening and
some sites could be variable. Kept everyone with VFR conditions
through the next 24hrs.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
140 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING RURAL AREAS. SUNDAY WILL
BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING
IN PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
FRONT EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR BACK INTO NW WI AND DOWN THRU
SOUTHERN MN. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SOME TSRA IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
IN VICINITY OF FRONTAL WAVE. SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT DETACHED WELL TO THE NORTH AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF EXTENDING
DOWN THRU ONTARIO WITH PARENT SURFACE LOW POSITIONED IN THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NW CWA BORDER BY 12Z THIS MORNING AS
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. BETTER
AERIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA IN
VICINITY OF FRONTAL WAVE AS COLD FRONT BECOMES TAKES ON A MORE E/W
ORIENTATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH WHICH WILL DIMINISH MASS
CONVERGENCE/FORCING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED AS SURFACE
HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BLOCK ANY RETURN FLOW.
TIMING OF FROPA ALSO UNFAVORABLE/TOO EARLY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
PERHAPS FAR SE CWA WHERE HIRES GUIDANCE HAS MID-DAY CAPES REACHING
1000J/KG. THE ABOVE FACTORS HAS LATEST RUNS OF CONSSHORT YIELDING
LOW CHANCE POPS AND A FASTER EXIT FROM THE CWA THAN CURRENT
FORECAST...WILL WORK TO BLEND THE TWO AND HAVE PRECIP ENDING BY
00Z SUN. MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE NW CWA WILL HAVE NON-
DIURNAL TREND IN TEMPS WITH NW FLOW OFF THE LAKE...KEEPING TEMPS
NEARLY STEADY AT 55-60F WHILE LOWER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SE
HALF OF THE CWA. FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND AND WILL PROVIDE FOR FAIR
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR MOTHERS DAY ON SUNDAY. FAVOR
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT OVER MODEL BLEND AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SHALLOW SURFACE BASED INVERSION WILL DECOUPLE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
FOCUS SHIFTS TO SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW LIFTING UP INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...SUBSEQUENT LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL HAVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WILL OPEN UP
DEEP MOISTURE RETURN FEEDING INTO THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT TO BE SLOW TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 300K SURFACE IS
QUITE WEAK INITIALLY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW UNABLE TO MAKE ANY EASTWARD
PROGRESS IN PRESENCE OF STRONG DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE...KEEPING
MAIN TROF AXIS BACK TO THE WEST. RESULT WILL BE AN OCCLUDING
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS FROM WHICH PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO
THURSDAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE PATTERN ON VARYING MODEL SOLNS WRT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT. WILL TREND TOWARD DRY FORECAST BY DAY 7 AS
ENSEMBLE MEANS DROPPING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH KSBN AND KFWA TERMINALS AT START OF THIS
PERIOD. WIND WAS VEERING NORTHWEST POST FRONTAL AND INCREASING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UPSTREAM OBS VFR. CLOUDS TO CLEAR
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. VFR ON SUNDAY
THROUGH END OF THIS VALID PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
611 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
THEN FILTER IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TO THE LOW TO MID 70S SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
FRONT EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR BACK INTO NW WI AND DOWN THRU
SOUTHERN MN. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SOME TSRA IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
IN VICINITY OF FRONTAL WAVE. SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT DETACHED WELL TO THE NORTH AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF EXTENDING
DOWN THRU ONTARIO WITH PARENT SURFACE LOW POSITIONED IN THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NW CWA BORDER BY 12Z THIS MORNING AS
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. BETTER
AERIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA IN
VICINITY OF FRONTAL WAVE AS COLD FRONT BECOMES TAKES ON A MORE E/W
ORIENTATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH WHICH WILL DIMINISH MASS
CONVERGENCE/FORCING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED AS SURFACE
HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BLOCK ANY RETURN FLOW.
TIMING OF FROPA ALSO UNFAVORABLE/TOO EARLY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
PERHAPS FAR SE CWA WHERE HIRES GUIDANCE HAS MID-DAY CAPES REACHING
1000J/KG. THE ABOVE FACTORS HAS LATEST RUNS OF CONSSHORT YIELDING
LOW CHANCE POPS AND A FASTER EXIT FROM THE CWA THAN CURRENT
FORECAST...WILL WORK TO BLEND THE TWO AND HAVE PRECIP ENDING BY
00Z SUN. MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE NW CWA WILL HAVE NON-
DIURNAL TREND IN TEMPS WITH NW FLOW OFF THE LAKE...KEEPING TEMPS
NEARLY STEADY AT 55-60F WHILE LOWER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SE
HALF OF THE CWA. FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND AND WILL PROVIDE FOR FAIR
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR MOTHERS DAY ON SUNDAY. FAVOR
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT OVER MODEL BLEND AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SHALLOW SURFACE BASED INVERSION WILL DECOUPLE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
FOCUS SHIFTS TO SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW LIFTING UP INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...SUBSEQUENT LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL HAVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WILL OPEN UP
DEEP MOISTURE RETURN FEEDING INTO THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT TO BE SLOW TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 300K SURFACE IS
QUITE WEAK INITIALLY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW UNABLE TO MAKE ANY EASTWARD
PROGRESS IN PRESENCE OF STRONG DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE...KEEPING
MAIN TROF AXIS BACK TO THE WEST. RESULT WILL BE AN OCCLUDING
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS FROM WHICH PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO
THURSDAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE PATTERN ON VARYING MODEL SOLNS WRT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT. WILL TREND TOWARD DRY FORECAST BY DAY 7 AS
ENSEMBLE MEANS DROPPING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO DROP SE THROUGH KSBN MID MORNING
AND KFWA TOWARD MIDDAY. CHANCE FOR SCT SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE LARGER IMPACT BEING
VEERING/INCREASING WINDS POST-FRONTAL. WINDS THEN QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS GRADIENT/MIXING RELAXES. MAINLY
VFR OTHEREWISE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
241 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
THEN FILTER IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TO THE LOW TO MID 70S SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
FRONT EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR BACK INTO NW WI AND DOWN THRU
SOUTHERN MN. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SOME TSRA IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
IN VICINITY OF FRONTAL WAVE. SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT DETACHED WELL TO THE NORTH AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF EXTENDING
DOWN THRU ONTARIO WITH PARENT SURFACE LOW POSITIONED IN THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NW CWA BORDER BY 12Z THIS MORNING AS
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. BETTER
AERIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA IN
VICINITY OF FRONTAL WAVE AS COLD FRONT BECOMES TAKES ON A MORE E/W
ORIENTATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH WHICH WILL DIMINISH MASS
CONVERGENCE/FORCING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED AS SURFACE
HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BLOCK ANY RETURN FLOW.
TIMING OF FROPA ALSO UNFAVORABLE/TOO EARLY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
PERHAPS FAR SE CWA WHERE HIRES GUIDANCE HAS MID-DAY CAPES REACHING
1000J/KG. THE ABOVE FACTORS HAS LATEST RUNS OF CONSSHORT YIELDING
LOW CHANCE POPS AND A FASTER EXIT FROM THE CWA THAN CURRENT
FORECAST...WILL WORK TO BLEND THE TWO AND HAVE PRECIP ENDING BY
00Z SUN. MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE NW CWA WILL HAVE NON-
DIURNAL TREND IN TEMPS WITH NW FLOW OFF THE LAKE...KEEPING TEMPS
NEARLY STEADY AT 55-60F WHILE LOWER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SE
HALF OF THE CWA. FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND AND WILL PROVIDE FOR FAIR
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR MOTHERS DAY ON SUNDAY. FAVOR
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT OVER MODEL BLEND AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SHALLOW SURFACE BASED INVERSION WILL DECOUPLE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
FOCUS SHIFTS TO SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW LIFTING UP INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...SUBSEQUENT LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL HAVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WILL OPEN UP
DEEP MOISTURE RETURN FEEDING INTO THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT TO BE SLOW TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 300K SURFACE IS
QUITE WEAK INITIALLY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW UNABLE TO MAKE ANY EASTWARD
PROGRESS IN PRESENCE OF STRONG DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE...KEEPING
MAIN TROF AXIS BACK TO THE WEST. RESULT WILL BE AN OCCLUDING
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS FROM WHICH PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO
THURSDAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE PATTERN ON VARYING MODEL SOLNS WRT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT. WILL TREND TOWARD DRY FORECAST BY DAY 7 AS
ENSEMBLE MEANS DROPPING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR/LIGHT SSW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH MAIN FOCUS
ON COLD FRONT PASSAGE AT KSBN LATE MORNING AND AT KFWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER/INCREASE OUT OF THE WNW POST-
FRONTAL WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. ALSO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AT KSBN 11-16Z
AND KFWA 14-19Z. LACKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WITH STRONGER
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT BYPASSING NORTH DEFINITE LIMITING
FACTORS FOR -TSRA MENTION...YET STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS A CONCERN THAT SCT CONVECTION MAY
BRIEFLY IMPACT NORTHERN INDIANA. OPTED FOR AN OPTIMISTIC VFR/VCSH
APPROACH FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR A POTENTIAL AMENDMENT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THE COLD FRONT AT MIDDAY APPEARS TO BE ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY
34 CORRIDOR. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE THE LOW LEVEL SMOKE AND POTENTIAL AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NOTED ALONG AN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER ESPECIALLY EASTERN IA. THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED TO A 3SM TO 5SM RANGE OVER
WESTERN AND SW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS BEING MARGINAL
FOR MENTIONING AS A VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTION...AND CONTINUED MIXING
OF A SMOKE-FREE AIRMASS OUT OF NORTHERN IL AND WI...WILL LEAVE
MENTION OF SMOKE OUT OF THE PUBLIC FORECAST. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE
AFFECTING THE FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING FROM WESTERN AND S CENTRAL
IA...WILL KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. WILL ALSO NEED TO
FURTHER ADJUST HIGHS UPWARDS IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES
MAY TOUCH 80 BEFORE THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WAS SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE NORTH OF DULUTH
WAS LEADING TO HAZE ACROSS MINNEAPOLIS THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS
SMOKE COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY DAYBREAK. THE
COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH WILL DRIVE OUR WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
SOUTH...STALLS OUT...AND THEN RETURNS TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AM COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
FRONT SAGS SOUTH.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CLOUDS TODAY.
AN APPROACHING H5 WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND LIKELY
LEAD TO CONVECTION. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF QPF. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP
COVERAGE AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. SPC HAS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE LIMITING FACTOR IN SEVERE WEATHER IS THAT THE
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND BY THE
TIME THE WAVE AND INCREASED SHEAR MAKES ITS WAY IN THE PARAMETERS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE OVERLAID OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. A
LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. COULD SEE A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH SUB
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH
TRIES TO INTENSIFY CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE LOCATION OF THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL DRIVE
WHAT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WE WILL HAVE. AT THIS TIME IT SUGGESTS
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND THEN BEGIN TO RETURN
TO THE AREA AS THE WESTERN MOST LOW OF THE OMEGA BLOCK BEGINS TO
EJECT OUT OVER THE PLAINS. AGAIN MOISTURE WILL BE OUR LIMITING
FACTOR FOR ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
A WILDFIRE NORTH OF DULUTH HAS LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
THE SMELL OF SMOKE IN THE TWIN CITIES THIS MORNING. WITH A
SOUTHERN WIND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD MOVE INTO OUR CWA. AT
THIS TIME WILL NOT ADD ANY HAZE TO THE FORECAST...LATER SHIFTS MAY
OR LATER UPDATES ON MY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADD IT DEPENDING ON ITS
LOCATION THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP INTO NEXT WEEK.
OVERVIEW...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN STALLING THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE THERE ARE THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES...NAMELY THE GFS IS DEEPEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW MONDAY
AND NAM AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE AS DEEP...THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS
THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING INTO OUR SERVICE AREA LATE
MONDAY.
SUNDAY...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLIDING EAST AND LIMITED MOISTURE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALL MODELS DEPICT AN OVERRUNNING
EVENT WITH RAIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE WARM
FRONT...BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO BE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA MONDAY. TIMING WITH THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE DURING PEAK HEATING
AND THE MAIN UPPER WAVE LIFTING OUT WOULD FAVOR STRONGER STORMS.
HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP LINGERING
WELL INTO THE DAY COULD BE INHIBITING FACTORS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SPECIFICS
DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS TIME PERIOD AS MODELS VARY
CONSIDERABLY ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE FEATURES.
COLD FRONT AND MAIN SURFACE LOW SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA LATE
IN THIS TIME FRAME. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT CONTINUED PERIODS OF
RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. ECMWF
DOES GENERATE SOME SHOWERS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRIER AIRMASS
MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.
AN AREA OF SMOKE AT THE SURFACE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF 5SM TO 6SM VISIBILITIES EARLY BEFORE MIXING
OUT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
MAINLY SW OF THE TERMINALS...BUT THERE COULD BE AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING WHICH IS COVERED WITH VICINITY
WORDING. OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD. AT THIS TIME...THIS IS COVERED WITH PROB30
GROUPS...LEAVING OUT THE LOW CONFIDENCE MENTION OF THUNDER.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
AREA OF DECREASED VISIBILITIES DUE TO SMOKE CAUGHT IN AN INVERSION
LAYER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LEAD TO SMOKE BEING ADDED TO THE
GRIDS. EVENTUAL HEATING SHOULD MIX OUT THE SMOKE LATER THIS
MORNING. SOME VSBYS WERE REDUCED TO UNDER 2 MILES ACROSS NORTHERN
IA THIS MORNING. WILL ADDRESS THE NEED FOR A SPS SHORTLY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WAS SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE NORTH OF DULUTH
WAS LEADING TO HAZE ACROSS MINNEAPOLIS THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS
SMOKE COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY DAYBREAK. THE
COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH WILL DRIVE OUR WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
SOUTH...STALLS OUT...AND THEN RETURNS TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AM COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
FRONT SAGS SOUTH.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CLOUDS TODAY.
AN APPROACHING H5 WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND LIKELY
LEAD TO CONVECTION. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF QPF. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP
COVERAGE AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. SPC HAS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE LIMITING FACTOR IN SEVERE WEATHER IS THAT THE
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND BY THE
TIME THE WAVE AND INCREASED SHEAR MAKES ITS WAY IN THE PARAMETERS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE OVERLAID OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. A
LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. COULD SEE A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH SUB
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH
TRIES TO INTENSIFY CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE LOCATION OF THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL DRIVE
WHAT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WE WILL HAVE. AT THIS TIME IT SUGGESTS
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND THEN BEGIN TO RETURN
TO THE AREA AS THE WESTERN MOST LOW OF THE OMEGA BLOCK BEGINS TO
EJECT OUT OVER THE PLAINS. AGAIN MOISTURE WILL BE OUR LIMITING
FACTOR FOR ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
A WILDFIRE NORTH OF DULUTH HAS LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
THE SMELL OF SMOKE IN THE TWIN CITIES THIS MORNING. WITH A
SOUTHERN WIND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD MOVE INTO OUR CWA. AT
THIS TIME WILL NOT ADD ANY HAZE TO THE FORECAST...LATER SHIFTS MAY
OR LATER UPDATES ON MY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADD IT DEPENDING ON ITS
LOCATION THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP INTO NEXT WEEK.
OVERVIEW...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN STALLING THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE THERE ARE THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES...NAMELY THE GFS IS DEEPEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW MONDAY
AND NAM AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE AS DEEP...THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS
THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING INTO OUR SERVICE AREA LATE
MONDAY.
SUNDAY...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLIDING EAST AND LIMITED MOISTURE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALL MODELS DEPICT AN OVERRUNNING
EVENT WITH RAIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE WARM
FRONT...BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO BE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA MONDAY. TIMING WITH THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE DURING PEAK HEATING
AND THE MAIN UPPER WAVE LIFTING OUT WOULD FAVOR STRONGER STORMS.
HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP LINGERING
WELL INTO THE DAY COULD BE INHIBITING FACTORS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SPECIFICS
DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS TIME PERIOD AS MODELS VARY
CONSIDERABLY ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE FEATURES.
COLD FRONT AND MAIN SURFACE LOW SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA LATE
IN THIS TIME FRAME. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT CONTINUED PERIODS OF
RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. ECMWF
DOES GENERATE SOME SHOWERS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL LEAVE OUT TS FROM THE TAFS UNTIL IT
IS CLEAR THE SITE WILL SEE THUNDER AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY TAF SITES
SEEING TSRA IS LOW. WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE SHOWERS TODAY WILL
CHANGE AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT TRIES
TO PUSH NORTH. SMOKE HAS BEEN REPORTED HEADING SOUTH FROM A
WILDFIRE...AT THIS TIME NOT CONFIDENT ON THE SMOKE MAKING IT TO
THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WAS SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE NORTH OF DULUTH
WAS LEADING TO HAZE ACROSS MINNEAPOLIS THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS
SMOKE COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY DAYBREAK. THE
COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH WILL DRIVE OUR WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
SOUTH...STALLS OUT...AND THEN RETURNS TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AM COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
FRONT SAGS SOUTH.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CLOUDS TODAY.
AN APPROACHING H5 WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND LIKELY
LEAD TO CONVECTION. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF QPF. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP
COVERAGE AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. SPC HAS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE LIMITING FACTOR IN SEVERE WEATHER IS THAT THE
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND BY THE
TIME THE WAVE AND INCREASED SHEAR MAKES ITS WAY IN THE PARAMETERS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE OVERLAID OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. A
LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. COULD SEE A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH SUB
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH
TRIES TO INTENSIFY CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE LOCATION OF THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL DRIVE
WHAT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WE WILL HAVE. AT THIS TIME IT SUGGESTS
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND THEN BEGIN TO RETURN
TO THE AREA AS THE WESTERN MOST LOW OF THE OMEGA BLOCK BEGINS TO
EJECT OUT OVER THE PLAINS. AGAIN MOISTURE WILL BE OUR LIMITING
FACTOR FOR ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
A WILDFIRE NORTH OF DULUTH HAS LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
THE SMELL OF SMOKE IN THE TWIN CITIES THIS MORNING. WITH A
SOUTHERN WIND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD MOVE INTO OUR CWA. AT
THIS TIME WILL NOT ADD ANY HAZE TO THE FORECAST...LATER SHIFTS MAY
OR LATER UPDATES ON MY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADD IT DEPENDING ON ITS
LOCATION THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP INTO NEXT WEEK.
OVERVIEW...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN STALLING THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE THERE ARE THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES...NAMELY THE GFS IS DEEPEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW MONDAY
AND NAM AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE AS DEEP...THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS
THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING INTO OUR SERVICE AREA LATE
MONDAY.
SUNDAY...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLIDING EAST AND LIMITED MOISTURE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALL MODELS DEPICT AN OVERRUNNING
EVENT WITH RAIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE WARM
FRONT...BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO BE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA MONDAY. TIMING WITH THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE DURING PEAK HEATING
AND THE MAIN UPPER WAVE LIFTING OUT WOULD FAVOR STRONGER STORMS.
HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP LINGERING
WELL INTO THE DAY COULD BE INHIBITING FACTORS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SPECIFICS
DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS TIME PERIOD AS MODELS VARY
CONSIDERABLY ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE FEATURES.
COLD FRONT AND MAIN SURFACE LOW SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA LATE
IN THIS TIME FRAME. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT CONTINUED PERIODS OF
RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. ECMWF
DOES GENERATE SOME SHOWERS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
INCREASING MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED NOT TO BE WIDESPREAD...THUS A VICINITY
WORDING HAS BEEN APPLIED TO TAF FORECASTS FOR NOW. LATER UPDATES
CAN DETERMINE BETTER TIMING OF BANDS OF SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD
MAINLY BE VFR IN NATURE. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND REMAIN NEAR 10 KTS GUSTING TO 25 KTS FOR A SHORT TIME
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. ERVIN
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
431 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GRADUALLY MEANDERING ACROSS THE HUDSON AND
JAMES BAY REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PASS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION
TO END THE WEEKEND...BEFORE STARTING TO RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WHERE
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT...BUT SHOULD PEAK THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WHEN UPPER FORCING INCREASES.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS WHAT BECOMES OF
THE CONVECTION APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WHAT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION CONTINUES...BUT RATHER DEEP
MIXING IS OFFSETTING THIS SOMEWHAT AS WELL. SBCAPES AND MUCAPES
ARE GENERALLY NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION
THOUGH WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND MOIST ADVECTION MAY REACH 1000
J/KG BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT WIND FIELDS
ALOFT LEADS TO A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE WOULD POINT TOWARD
THE CONVECTION APPROACHING THE AREA AFFECTING THE CWA IN A COUPLE
OF TIER OF COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING. POPS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWA AS A RESULT FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...LOCATIONS
NEAR THE TN BORDER WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. AS
ALREADY NOTED THE HIGHEST POPS...LIKELY...WERE USED IN MOST
LOCATIONS FOR THIS EVENING OR THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
IN MOST LOCATIONS. VALLEY FOG COULD BECOME A CONCERN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT PENDING THE DEGREE OF CLEARING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.
A NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BOUNDARY STARTING TO PARK ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF I 64 TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE TN
BORDER. LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
SINCE YESTERDAY. AT THIS POINT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE...WITH A TYPICAL DECLINE WITH PASSING TIME. FOR DETAILS...A
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
AS THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIP MAINLY NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS LEAVES JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. A LARGE BUT WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH ITS PASSING COINCIDING WITH AN INCREASED FLOW OFF OF
THE GULF. THIS WILL PRESENT AN INCREASE IN POP FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A CORRESPONDING DROP IN POP. AFTER THIS...A LARGE UPPER
LOW ROLLING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW WILL HAVE A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. THE TROUGH AND FRONT SHOULD
APPROACH ON THURSDAY AND MOVE PAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
REPRESENTS ANOTHER PEAK IN POP. BEHIND THIS...MODELS SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST BRING US A DRIER AIR MASS
ON FRIDAY. YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST AND DEEPENS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRINGS BACK ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO EAST KY BY THE 21Z TO 01Z
PERIOD AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING DURING
THAT PERIOD. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTH AT
KSYM...WHERE TSRA WAS INCLUDED. WE HAVE BROUGHT VIS OR CIGS DOWN
TO MVFR DURING THE ANTICIPATED PERIOD OF CONVECTION WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST TO INCLUDE SYM...SJS AND JKL. DURING THE 6Z
TO 18Z PERIOD...CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CONVECTION MAY
PERSIST IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE AREA AND LEAD TO CONTINUED TO
MVFR AT SJS...JKL AND LOZ. MAINLY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25KT POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH AND BE MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
421 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GRADUALLY MEANDERING ACROSS THE HUDSON AND
JAMES BAY REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PASS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION
TO END THE WEEKEND...BEFORE STARTING TO RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WHERE
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT...BUT SHOULD PEAK THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WHEN UPPER FORCING INCREASES.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS WHAT BECOMES OF
THE CONVECTION APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WHAT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION CONTINUES...BUT RATHER DEEP
MIXING IS OFFSETTING THIS SOMEWHAT AS WELL. SBCAPES AND MUCAPES
ARE GENERALLY NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION
THOUGH WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND MOIST ADVECTION MAY REACH 1000
J/KG BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT WIND FIELDS
ALOFT LEADS TO A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE WOULD POINT TOWARD
THE CONVECTION APPROACHING THE AREA AFFECTING THE CWA IN A COUPLE
OF TIER OF COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING. POPS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWA AS A RESULT FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...LOCATIONS
NEAR THE TN BORDER WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. AS
ALREADY NOTED THE HIGHEST POPS...LIKELY...WERE USED IN MOST
LOCATIONS FOR THIS EVENING OR THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
IN MOST LOCATIONS. VALLEY FOG COULD BECOME A CONCERN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT PENDING THE DEGREE OF CLEARING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.
A NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BOUNDARY STARTING TO PARK ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF I 64 TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE TN
BORDER. LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO EAST KY BY THE 21Z TO 01Z
PERIOD AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING DURING
THAT PERIOD. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTH AT
KSYM...WHERE TSRA WAS INCLUDED. WE HAVE BROUGHT VIS OR CIGS DOWN
TO MVFR DURING THE ANTICIPATED PERIOD OF CONVECTION WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST TO INCLUDE SYM...SJS AND JKL. DURING THE 6Z
TO 18Z PERIOD...CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CONVECTION MAY
PERSIST IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE AREA AND LEAD TO CONTINUED TO
MVFR AT SJS...JKL AND LOZ. MAINLY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25KT POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH AND BE MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
207 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME TO
POPS...HOWEVER...AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON SATELLITE...RADAR...
AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS HAVE ALSO BEEN MADE TO
POPS IN THE EVENING TO BETTER ALIGN WITH SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
AND THE 12Z NAM WHICH POINTS TOWARD CONVECTION IN THE NORTH
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
BEFORE SUNSET. AS MOISTURE AND SHEAR INCREASE THIS EVENING...A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA MAINLY. WBZ HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
9KFT AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS
WELL SO LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
ISSUED AN UPDATED TO FINE TUNE THE NEAR TERM TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON
THE LAST SATELLITE IMAGE. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRY WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. CURRENTLY THIS BOUNDARY IS DRY WITH JUST MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE CWA ARE EXHIBITING A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
VARYING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE LOW
50S ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL. WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
THIS PART OF KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING AND PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN
RATHER LIMITED THUS FAR.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEVOLUTION OF THE
CONUS OMEGA BLOCK AS THE EASTERN LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND THE WESTERN ONE OPENS UP TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
EASTERN LOW/S DEPARTURE...HEIGHTS WILL CLIMB TODAY. MEANWHILE...A
DIGGING CLOSED LOW WILL DESCEND INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE
HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY PUSHING A MINOR SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT. RATHER
FLAT AND FAST FLOW FOLLOWS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHERN TROUGH SPINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR EARLY AND NAM THEREAFTER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUICK WARM UP FOLLOWING A CHILLY
START FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SLIPS THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZED AIR MASS ACROSS THE
CWA LATER IN THE DAY. LIS WILL FALL TO -5 OR LESS WHILE CAPE
CLIMBS TO 1500 J/KG OR GREATER ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING WITH
HEIGHTS. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD SINKING BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO AND ALSO A PARTNER
E-MAIL. THOUGH POPS WILL FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE STALLING
COLD FRONT WILL SIT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD KEEP THE ELEVATION BASED DIFFERENCES TO A MINIMUM FOR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WHILE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DIFFERENCES
ACROSS THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE LOWS. LIKEWISE ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S SOUTH ON SUNDAY
AND COOLER MID 60S NORTHEAST.
USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST
ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND MINIMAL TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS
TO ADJUST FOR TIMING OF THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH SOLUTIONS DIVERGING A BIT LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SEEING MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SMALLER
SCALE FEATURES...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFTER THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION DAY ONE...MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
APPROACHING TROUGH THAT MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THIS TROUGH IS PART OF A LARGER CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL PHASE
WITH...BE REINFORCED BY ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ABOUT THE SAME
TIME. OVERALL RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL TRANSITION OF LARGER SYSTEM
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...A STALLED OUT COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
HEART OF OUR CWA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY THERE WILL ONLY BE A
BRIEF LULL IN THE THREAT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE WEEK...
FIRST FROM THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA AND SECOND FROM
THE TROUGH THAT ROTATES ACROSS THE MIDWEST TUESDAY. THEREAFTER FLOW
IS SOMEWHAT SPLIT UNTIL LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA BY THU INTO FRI.
OVERALL TEMPS APPEAR TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. POPS APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THEN
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO EAST KY BY THE 21Z TO 01Z
PERIOD AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING DURING
THAT PERIOD. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTH AT
KSYM...WHERE TSRA WAS INCLUDED. WE HAVE BROUGHT VIS OR CIGS DOWN
TO MVFR DURING THE ANTICIPATED PERIOD OF CONVECTION WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST TO INCLUDE SYM...SJS AND JKL. DURING THE 6Z
TO 18Z PERIOD...CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CONVECTION MAY
PERSIST IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE AREA AND LEAD TO CONTINUED TO
MVFR AT SJS...JKL AND LOZ. MAINLY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25KT POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH AND BE MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1050 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON SATELLITE...RADAR...
AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS HAVE ALSO BEEN MADE TO
POPS IN THE EVENING TO BETTER ALIGN WITH SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
AND THE 12Z NAM WHICH POINTS TOWARD CONVECTION IN THE NORTH
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
BEFORE SUNSET. AS MOISTURE AND SHEAR INCREASE THIS EVENING...A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA MAINLY. WBZ HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
9KFT AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS
WELL SO LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
ISSUED AN UPDATED TO FINE TUNE THE NEAR TERM TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON
THE LAST SATELLITE IMAGE. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRY WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. CURRENTLY THIS BOUNDARY IS DRY WITH JUST MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE CWA ARE EXHIBITING A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
VARYING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE LOW
50S ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL. WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
THIS PART OF KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING AND PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN
RATHER LIMITED THUS FAR.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEVOLUTION OF THE
CONUS OMEGA BLOCK AS THE EASTERN LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND THE WESTERN ONE OPENS UP TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
EASTERN LOW/S DEPARTURE...HEIGHTS WILL CLIMB TODAY. MEANWHILE...A
DIGGING CLOSED LOW WILL DESCEND INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE
HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY PUSHING A MINOR SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT. RATHER
FLAT AND FAST FLOW FOLLOWS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHERN TROUGH SPINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR EARLY AND NAM THEREAFTER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUICK WARM UP FOLLOWING A CHILLY
START FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SLIPS THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZED AIR MASS ACROSS THE
CWA LATER IN THE DAY. LIS WILL FALL TO -5 OR LESS WHILE CAPE
CLIMBS TO 1500 J/KG OR GREATER ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING WITH
HEIGHTS. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD SINKING BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO AND ALSO A PARTNER
E-MAIL. THOUGH POPS WILL FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE STALLING
COLD FRONT WILL SIT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD KEEP THE ELEVATION BASED DIFFERENCES TO A MINIMUM FOR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WHILE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DIFFERENCES
ACROSS THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE LOWS. LIKEWISE ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S SOUTH ON SUNDAY
AND COOLER MID 60S NORTHEAST.
USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST
ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND MINIMAL TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS
TO ADJUST FOR TIMING OF THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH SOLUTIONS DIVERGING A BIT LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SEEING MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SMALLER
SCALE FEATURES...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFTER THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION DAY ONE...MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
APPROACHING TROUGH THAT MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THIS TROUGH IS PART OF A LARGER CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL PHASE
WITH...BE REINFORCED BY ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ABOUT THE SAME
TIME. OVERALL RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL TRANSITION OF LARGER SYSTEM
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...A STALLED OUT COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
HEART OF OUR CWA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY THERE WILL ONLY BE A
BRIEF LULL IN THE THREAT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE WEEK...
FIRST FROM THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA AND SECOND FROM
THE TROUGH THAT ROTATES ACROSS THE MIDWEST TUESDAY. THEREAFTER FLOW
IS SOMEWHAT SPLIT UNTIL LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA BY THU INTO FRI.
OVERALL TEMPS APPEAR TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. POPS APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THEN
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 21Z. A WEAK DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE FROM HIGH CLOUDS PRIOR TO THAT TIME. HOWEVER...AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL LIKELY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT LEAST
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA AND PERHAPS SOME EXPANSION
SOUTH LATER IN THE EVENING. HAVE GEARED THE TAF GRIDS AND TEXT
TAFS FOR THIS IDEA WITH VCTS INCLUDED IN THE MORE SOUTHWEST SITES
VERSES PREVAILING TS NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP SMARTLY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND LATER WEST DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
725 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
ISSUED AN UPDATED TO FINE TUNE THE NEAR TERM TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON
THE LAST SATELLITE IMAGE. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRY WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. CURRENTLY THIS BOUNDARY IS DRY WITH JUST MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE CWA ARE EXHIBITING A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
VARYING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE LOW
50S ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL. WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
THIS PART OF KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING AND PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN
RATHER LIMITED THUS FAR.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEVOLUTION OF THE
CONUS OMEGA BLOCK AS THE EASTERN LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND THE WESTERN ONE OPENS UP TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
EASTERN LOW/S DEPARTURE...HEIGHTS WILL CLIMB TODAY. MEANWHILE...A
DIGGING CLOSED LOW WILL DESCEND INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE
HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY PUSHING A MINOR SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT. RATHER
FLAT AND FAST FLOW FOLLOWS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHERN TROUGH SPINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR EARLY AND NAM THEREAFTER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUICK WARM UP FOLLOWING A CHILLY
START FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SLIPS THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZED AIR MASS ACROSS THE
CWA LATER IN THE DAY. LIS WILL FALL TO -5 OR LESS WHILE CAPE
CLIMBS TO 1500 J/KG OR GREATER ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING WITH
HEIGHTS. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD SINKING BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO AND ALSO A PARTNER
E-MAIL. THOUGH POPS WILL FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE STALLING
COLD FRONT WILL SIT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD KEEP THE ELEVATION BASED DIFFERENCES TO A MINIMUM FOR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WHILE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DIFFERENCES
ACROSS THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE LOWS. LIKEWISE ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S SOUTH ON SUNDAY
AND COOLER MID 60S NORTHEAST.
USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST
ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND MINIMAL TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS
TO ADJUST FOR TIMING OF THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH SOLUTIONS DIVERGING A BIT LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SEEING MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SMALLER
SCALE FEATURES...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFTER THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION DAY ONE...MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
APPROACHING TROUGH THAT MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THIS TROUGH IS PART OF A LARGER CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL PHASE
WITH...BE REINFORCED BY ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ABOUT THE SAME
TIME. OVERALL RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL TRANSITION OF LARGER SYSTEM
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...A STALLED OUT COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
HEART OF OUR CWA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY THERE WILL ONLY BE A
BRIEF LULL IN THE THREAT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE WEEK...
FIRST FROM THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA AND SECOND FROM
THE TROUGH THAT ROTATES ACROSS THE MIDWEST TUESDAY. THEREAFTER FLOW
IS SOMEWHAT SPLIT UNTIL LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA BY THU INTO FRI.
OVERALL TEMPS APPEAR TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. POPS APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THEN
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 21Z. A WEAK DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE FROM HIGH CLOUDS PRIOR TO THAT TIME. HOWEVER...AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL LIKELY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT LEAST
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA AND PERHAPS SOME EXPANSION
SOUTH LATER IN THE EVENING. HAVE GEARED THE TAF GRIDS AND TEXT
TAFS FOR THIS IDEA WITH VCTS INCLUDED IN THE MORE SOUTHWEST SITES
VERSES PREVAILING TS NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP SMARTLY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND LATER WEST DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
425 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRY WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. CURRENTLY THIS BOUNDARY IS DRY WITH JUST MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE CWA ARE EXHIBITING A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
VARYING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE LOW
50S ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL. WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
THIS PART OF KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING AND PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN
RATHER LIMITED THUS FAR.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEVOLUTION OF THE
CONUS OMEGA BLOCK AS THE EASTERN LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND THE WESTERN ONE OPENS UP TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
EASTERN LOW/S DEPARTURE...HEIGHTS WILL CLIMB TODAY. MEANWHILE...A
DIGGING CLOSED LOW WILL DESCEND INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE
HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY PUSHING A MINOR SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT. RATHER
FLAT AND FAST FLOW FOLLOWS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHERN TROUGH SPINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR EARLY AND NAM THEREAFTER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUICK WARM UP FOLLOWING A CHILLY
START FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SLIPS THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZED AIR MASS ACROSS THE
CWA LATER IN THE DAY. LIS WILL FALL TO -5 OR LESS WHILE CAPE
CLIMBS TO 1500 J/KG OR GREATER ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING WITH
HEIGHTS. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD SINKING BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO AND ALSO A PARTNER
E-MAIL. THOUGH POPS WILL FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE STALLING
COLD FRONT WILL SIT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD KEEP THE ELEVATION BASED DIFFERENCES TO A MINIMUM FOR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WHILE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DIFFERENCES
ACROSS THE FRONT WILL DRIVE LOWS. LIKEWISE ON SUNDAY...EXPECT WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND COOL MID 60S
NORTHEAST.
USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST
ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND MINIMAL TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS
TO ADJUST FOR TIMING OF THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH SOLUTIONS DIVERGING A BIT LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SEEING MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SMALLER
SCALE FEATURES...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFTER THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION DAY ONE...MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
APPROACHING TROUGH THAT MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THIS TROUGH IS PART OF A LARGER CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL PHASE
WITH...BE REINFORCED BY ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ABOUT THE SAME
TIME. OVERALL RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL TRANSITION OF LARGER SYSTEM
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...A STALLED OUT COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
HEART OF OUR CWA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY THERE WILL ONLY BE A
BRIEF LULL IN THE THREAT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE WEEK...
FIRST FROM THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA AND SECOND FROM
THE TROUGH THAT ROTATES ACROSS THE MIDWEST TUESDAY. THEREAFTER FLOW
IS SOMEWHAT SPLIT UNTIL LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA BY THU INTO FRI.
OVERALL TEMPS APPEAR TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. POPS APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THEN
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. A WEAK
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY MORE THAN A
STRAY SHOWER TO THE AREA PRIOR TO THAT TIME. HOWEVER...AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL LIKELY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA AND PERHAPS SOME EXPANSION SOUTH
LATER IN THE EVENING. HAVE GEARED THE TAF GRIDS AND TEXT TAFS FOR
THIS IDEA WITH VCTS THE MAIN MEANS OF CONVEYING THE STORM
THREAT...AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PICK UP SMARTLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND LATER WEST DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
641 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATER MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
625 PM UPDATE: BASED ON LATEST OBSVD RADAR REF AND FCST HRRR SIM
RADAR REF...WE THOUGHT IT BEST TO INCREASE POPS HIGHER INTO THE
CHC CATEGORY...WITH A LITTLE MORE FCST 6HRLY QPF SPCLY OVR THE SE
HLF OF THE FA FOR THE 2PM-8PM AND 8PM-2AM TM FRAMES.
OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE IN FCST HRLY CLD CVR AND
SFC TEMPS THRU THE OVRNGT BASED ON TRENDS SEEN IN LATEST SAT
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS TO MSLY UNCHGD FCST LOWS POSTED AT 5 AM SUN.
ORGNL DISC: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
COULD ALSO HAVE PATCHY FOG DOWNEAST LATER TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH AN AREA OF RAIN IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT...WITH THE MOST EXTENSIVE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH RAIN ENDING IN THE EVENING FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST. FURTHER
NORTH...THE SITUATION IS MORE COMPLICATED AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THEN A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW MEANDERS
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THESE
DEVELOPMENTS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. THE POST-
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY TOTAL A QUARTER INCH
OVERNIGHT TOWARDS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK...BUT COULD HIT AS MUCH AS A
HALF INCH IN NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE FRONT...GOING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S LATER IN THE NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT...RAIN MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW LATER IN THE NIGHT
FOR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. WILL GO WITH UP TO INCH IN NW
AROOSTOOK. AM ANTICIPATING MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OVER BEFORE
THE CHANGEOVER. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER IN THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY.
WITH STRONG MIXING TO H850 OR HIGHER ON MONDAY...GUSTS MAY REACH
OVER 45 MPH AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY WHILE MID TO
UPPER 50S ARE FORECAST TOWARDS BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH. THESE
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE MORE DOWNSLOPE-INDUCED SUNSHINE ON MONDAY
WHILE NORTHERN ZONES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST LATER SUNDAY...FIRE WEATHER
COULD BE A CONCERN IN SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
WINDS AND LOW RH.
WINDS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NORTH UNDER A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW LINGERING EVENING
SHOWERS IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP
TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON
TUESDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOW
TO MID 60S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WITH THE HELP OF THE OFFSHORE
WIND. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH...BUT
WINDS WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.
AGAIN...THE BANGOR AND DOWNEAST REGION WILL HAVE LOW RH AND WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WE GO INTO THE MIDDLE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, THE CHILLY TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE MOVING AWAY ALLOWING FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND BRING A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY
EVENING WILL REMAIN COOL AND BREEZY WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVER
THE NORTH AND A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA MOVES AWAY. THIS WILL BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY
MILD DAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME PATCHY CLOUDS
ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, A PARTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY WILL BE
LIKELY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMER DAY ON FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PUSHES IN. AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO A LARGE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SOME CLOUDS
MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS LOOKS MILD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH SO MILD WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, EVEN WITH ANY SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS EARLY TONIGHT...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST EARLY
TONIGHT...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR IN RAIN FOR BGR AND BHB EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING AND THEN QUICKLY BECOMING VFR LATER IN THE EVENING. FOR
THESE SOUTHERN SITES...IT WILL BE VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. NORTH OF HUL...EXPECT IFR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE IFR WILL LIFT
TO VFR FOR MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
OF PQI. THESE CEILINGS MAY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY MONDAY FROM THE WEST. GUSTS MAY REACH OVER 40
KTS. THIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY...THOUGH CONDITIONS
COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND PATCHY FOG SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM: VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MAY TRANSITION TO AN
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MONDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
739 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CONFLUENT NW
FLOW ALF OVER THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO NEAR HUDSON BAY
AND AN UPR RDG EXTENDING FM THE NRN PLAINS THRU CENTRAL CANADA.
UNDER THIS CONFLUENT FLOW ALF...SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER FAR NW
ONTARIO IS EXTENDING A RDG AXIS TOWARD UPR MI. LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON
THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS UNDER THIS RDG AXIS IS RESULTING IN DRY WX
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DIURNAL CU. BUT INCOMING AIRMASS IS
QUITE DRY PER 12Z YPL RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS 0.22 INCH.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS WITH DRY HI PRES
FCST TO DOMINATE. WITH PERSISTENT DRYNESS BEFORE GREENUP...FIRE WX
ISSUES WL BE A CONCERN ON MON AFTN.
TNGT...EXPECT MOCLR SKIES WITH DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING...A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR A CHILLY OVERNGT. THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR OVER
THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA CLOSER TO WHERE THE HI PRES RDG IS FCST TO
BUILD AND BRING THE LIGHTEST WINDS. WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS IN THIS AREA. A LIGHT SE WIND OVER THE FAR W
UNDER A BIT SHARPER PRES GRADIENT ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE RDG AXIS
MAY LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP DROP THERE.
MON...HI PRES RDG AXIS WL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE ERN CWA. H85
TEMPS ARE FCST TO REBOUND TO BTWN ABOUT 4C OVER THE E TO NEAR 7C
OVER THE W...WHERE A STEADY SE FLOW IS FCST TO DOWNSLOPE. MAX TEMPS
IN THIS AREA WL AT LEAST APRCH 70. STEADIER SE WINDS IN THIS AREA WL
ALSO ACCENTUATE FIRE WX CONCERNS AS DAYTIME MIXING ALLOWS MIN RH TO
DIP TOWARD 20 TO 25 PCT. FORTUNATELY...THIS AREA WHERE THE SE WINDS
WL BE STRONGEST PICKED UP A BIT MORE RA ON FRI NGT. WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND E SHOULD BE LIGHTER AND LIMIT WILD FIRE POTENTIAL IN
THOSE AREAS DESPITE MORE RECENT DRYNESS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BRINGING A
WARMER AIRMASS INTO WED AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE W. HIGHS
TUE IN THE 60S AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORES INCREASE TO MID 60S
TO MID 70S ON WED. THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE TURNING COOLER AS
THAT UPPER LOW MOVES IN...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S SAT.
LOW RH VALUES WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
E...DOWN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT INTERIOR W...TUE AFTERNOON AS WINDS
GUST TO 20-25MPH. RH IMPROVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AREA SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP SW OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE WED. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING SOME PRECIP BRUSHING THE WI BORDER MON NIGHT INTO WED...BUT
JUST HOW FAR THE SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT INTO THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
WILL BE TRICKY. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW END AND CONFINED TO NEAR
THE WI BORDER THROUGH LATE WED. WED NIGHT AND THU LOOK TO SEE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SFC COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. ALTHOUGH THE GFS ONLY
HAVE SOME AREAS SEEING A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF...THE ECMWF HAS ALL
AREAS WITH AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH. FRI INTO SUN COULD HAVE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR INSIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIP AS
850MB TEMPS DROP TO OR BELOW -7C. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONG W WINDS OVER THE KEWEENAW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI...SO WILL BE
MONITORING THAT TOO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS/CLEAR SKIES THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS THRU TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES
BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL BECOME ENE UP 15 TO 25 KTS ON MON
AFTERNOON/NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES GRADIENT ON
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HI PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND TERRAIN
INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE
HI SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LO PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SW...THE
FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LO SHIFTS TO THE NE AND
INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS ON THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT TO
THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
314 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
INTO THE GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG OVER WRN CANADA AND DEEP TROFFING
OVER ERN NAMERICA. MUCH COOLER AIR HAS INVADED THE UPR LKS FOLLOWING
COLD FROPA LAST NGT...WITH SFC TEMPS PEAKING BTWN 60-65 OVER THE
SCENTRAL AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN LLVL NLY FLOW AHEAD OF APRCHG
SFC HI PRES RDG. RH HAS DIPPED TO AS LO AS ABOUT 25 PCT WITH INFLUX
OF LLVL DRY AIR/DAYTIME MIXING. SKIES ARE MOSUNNY THIS AFTN...BUT
DIURNAL CU ARE NOW DVLPG OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF. THERE IS ANOTHER
SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU NW ONTARIO WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF...AND
THERE ARE MORE CLDS OVER NW ONTARIO/MN ARROWHEAD MOVING INTO NW LK
SUP ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTER ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED ON THE 12Z YPL RAOB
AND 00Z-12Z H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 130M REPORTED AT INL AND YPL.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLD TRENDS/POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TNGT AHEAD OF SHRTWV/SFC TROF APRCHG FM THE NW.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...DESPITE THE RATHER DRY LLVL AIR AND ACYC
NATURE OF THE H925-85 NW FLOW OVER THE CWA...SOME OF THE HIER RES
MODELS STILL GENERATE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG MAINLY
ALONG AXIS OF LLVL CNVGC/STEEPER MID LVL LAPSE RATES FCST OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA. CONSIDERING THE MOISTER ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z
YPL RAOB...THE EXPANDING INSTABILITY CLDS TO THE NW SPILLING OUT
INTO LK SUP...AND FAIRLY SHARP H5 HGT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC THAT IS FCST TO IMPACT THE CWA AHEAD OF
APRCHG SHRTWV...OPTED TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS WHERE MANY OF
THE HIER RES GUIDANCE IS GENERATING THE PCPN. OTHER AREAS WL SEE SCT-
BKN CLD COVER. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC BEHIND SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES TROF PASSAGE WL CAUSE ANY
SHOWERS AND THE CLDS TO DIMINISH OVERNGT. MIN TEMPS WL FALL INTO THE
CHILLY 30S AT MOST PLACES.
SUN...HI PRES BLDG OVER THE UPR LKS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIRMASS WITH PWAT NOT FAR FM 0.25 INCH WL BRING MOSUNNY WX TO UPR
MI. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO RANGE FM ABOUT 0C OVER THE ERN CWA TO ARND
4C OVER THE SW CWA BY 00Z MON...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS NEAR 65 ALONG
THE WI BORDER AND IN THE 50S OVER THE E. WITH A LIGHT NNE FLOW OFF
LK SUP...EXPECT HI TEMPS NEAR THE SHORE TO HOLD IN THE 40S. LIGHTER
WINDS UNDER FLATTER PRES GRADIENT WL LIMIT FIRE WX CONCERNS EVEN
THOUGH DAYTIME MIXING WL DROP MIN AFTN RH AS LO AS 20-25 PCT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND MON THROUGH WED AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH AND AN UPPER LOW OR TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE W. HIGHS MON IN
THE 60S AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORES INCREASE TO MID 60S TO MID
70S ON WED. THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE TURNING COOLER AS THAT UPPER
LOW OR TROUGH MOVE IN...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
FRI AND SAT.
LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE CONTINUE ON MON
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND RH IMPROVES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AREA SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP SW OF THE CWA AT LEAST INTO WED. MODELS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT MAYBE SOME PRECIP BRUSHING THE WI BORDER MON NIGHT INTO
WED...BUT THE MODELS WITH THE BEST CONTINUITY HAVE KEPT THAT PRECIP
JUST SW OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW END AND CONFINED TO
THE WI BORDER INTO WED. WED NIGHT AND THU MAY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SFC COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. FRI AND SAT LOOK WETTER...BUT MORE SHOWERS THAN
WIDESPREAD RAIN...AS THE UPPER LOW OR TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD WITH LLVL
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN WL DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS
EVNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. WINDS ON SUN WL BE LIGHTER
AS HI PRES BUILDS CLOSER TO UPR MI.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
W WINDS UP TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE N TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A LO PRES TROUGH. THEN WITH HUDSON BAY HI
PRES DOMINATING INTO AT LEAST MID WEEK...EXPECT THE N WINDS TO SHIFT
TOWARD THE E UP TO 20 KTS INTO WED. AN APPROACHING LO PRES WILL
CAUSE THE WINDS TO TURN MORE TO THE S BY THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
136 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE ON MON...AND WILL BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS THREAT OF RAIN WILL LAST AT LEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
OFF AND ON MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
MIDDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH
THE 40S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME CAPE NOTED ON
THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE HOWEVER WITH 500 J/KG NEAR AND JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. RAP DEEP LAYER (0-10KM) CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH THE 700-900 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CWA TOWARDS JACKSON BEFORE THE DEW POINTS/CAPE ARE SWEPT
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.
HAVE CHANCE POPS (30-50 PCT) IN THE SOUTH THROUGH 200PM WITH A
20-30 PCT CHANCE THEN THROUGH 400PM NEAR JACKSON. EXPECTATION IS A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. GIVEN WEAK CAPE AND 25-30 KNOTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING BUT
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IF WE SEE THEM AT ALL.
OVERALL A DECREASING CLOUD SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SMOKE WILL DECREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN FORECAST TRAJECTORIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THE TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE FRONT COMING THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING IS FOR LESS RAIN OVER TIME. A FEW DAYS AGO IT
LOOKED LIKE MOST EVERYWHERE WOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. NOW IT
APPEARS THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SNEAK BY WITH LITTLE TO NO
RAIN. SFC ANALYSIS AT 07Z INDICATES THAT THE FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...BUT
NOTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE.
THE LLJ IS WORKING ITS WAY IN AND COULD SPARK A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE AIR IS JUST SO DRY
THOUGH...WHICH IS LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT IS FALLING. WE
ARE NOW EXPECTING THE FRONT TO BE SOUTH OF THE CWFA BY 18Z WITH THE
RAIN EXITING SHORTLY AFTER THAT. SKIES SHOULD THEN CLEAR OUT QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONT.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A WAVE AND SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE DROPPING
SE ACROSS THE NE SIDE OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD POP UP IN THE HEAT OF
THE DAY JUST EAST OF THE CWFA. THE AREA WILL STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE...WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST.
WE WILL SEE DRY WEATHER PREVAIL SUN NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING LATER ON MONDAY. WE WILL SEE RETURN FLOW START TO SET UP
OVER THE AREA ON MON. MOISTURE WILL TRY TO MAKE A RETURN...HOWEVER
THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT
WILL REACH THE AREA. THIS IS BECAUSE IT WILL BE TRYING TO RIDE OVER
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND INTO A MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE BETTER
CHCS FOR RAIN WILL COME IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF A SFC
WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST AND SFC AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW BRINGS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
PUSHES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS FOR THIS FCST
PACKAGE. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A PERIOD OF SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS
WHEN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. IT SHOULD MOVE OUT BY THE EVENING HOURS...WITH WAVES
COMING DOWN BELOW FOUR FEET BY MID EVENING.
IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY SEE ANOTHER TIGHT GRADIENT MOVE IN ON SUN ON
THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW DROPPING SE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEING
NEEDED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THE RIVERS AT HASTINGS AND MAPLE RAPIDS ARE NEAR CREST AND THE
GRAND RIVER AT IONIA IS FALLING. FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE AT
THOSE LOCATIONS FOR SOME LOWLAND FLOODING. VERY LITTLE PRECIP
IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS... WHICH WILL GIVE THE RIVERS SOME
TIME TO SUBSIDE. RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK COULD BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AGAIN... BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS
CURRENTLY LOW.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1156 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE ON MON...AND WILL BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS THREAT OF RAIN WILL LAST AT LEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
OFF AND ON MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
MIDDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH
THE 40S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME CAPE NOTED ON
THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE HOWEVER WITH 500 J/KG NEAR AND JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. RAP DEEP LAYER (0-10KM) CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH THE 700-900 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CWA TOWARDS JACKSON BEFORE THE DEW POINTS/CAPE ARE SWEPT
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.
HAVE CHANCE POPS (30-50 PCT) IN THE SOUTH THROUGH 200PM WITH A
20-30 PCT CHANCE THEN THROUGH 400PM NEAR JACKSON. EXPECTATION IS A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. GIVEN WEAK CAPE AND 25-30 KNOTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING BUT
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IF WE SEE THEM AT ALL.
OVERALL A DECREASING CLOUD SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SMOKE WILL DECREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN FORECAST TRAJECTORIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THE TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE FRONT COMING THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING IS FOR LESS RAIN OVER TIME. A FEW DAYS AGO IT
LOOKED LIKE MOST EVERYWHERE WOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. NOW IT
APPEARS THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SNEAK BY WITH LITTLE TO NO
RAIN. SFC ANALYSIS AT 07Z INDICATES THAT THE FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...BUT
NOTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE.
THE LLJ IS WORKING ITS WAY IN AND COULD SPARK A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE AIR IS JUST SO DRY
THOUGH...WHICH IS LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT IS FALLING. WE
ARE NOW EXPECTING THE FRONT TO BE SOUTH OF THE CWFA BY 18Z WITH THE
RAIN EXITING SHORTLY AFTER THAT. SKIES SHOULD THEN CLEAR OUT QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONT.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A WAVE AND SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE DROPPING
SE ACROSS THE NE SIDE OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD POP UP IN THE HEAT OF
THE DAY JUST EAST OF THE CWFA. THE AREA WILL STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE...WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST.
WE WILL SEE DRY WEATHER PREVAIL SUN NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING LATER ON MONDAY. WE WILL SEE RETURN FLOW START TO SET UP
OVER THE AREA ON MON. MOISTURE WILL TRY TO MAKE A RETURN...HOWEVER
THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT
WILL REACH THE AREA. THIS IS BECAUSE IT WILL BE TRYING TO RIDE OVER
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND INTO A MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE BETTER
CHCS FOR RAIN WILL COME IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF A SFC
WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST AND SFC AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW BRINGS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
PUSHES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
SOME AREAS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A FEW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN INCLUDING JXN...BUT THE
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING SWITCHING TO NORTHWEST BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS FOR THIS FCST
PACKAGE. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A PERIOD OF SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS
WHEN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. IT SHOULD MOVE OUT BY THE EVENING HOURS...WITH WAVES
COMING DOWN BELOW FOUR FEET BY MID EVENING.
IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY SEE ANOTHER TIGHT GRADIENT MOVE IN ON SUN ON
THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW DROPPING SE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEING
NEEDED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THE RIVERS AT HASTINGS AND MAPLE RAPIDS ARE NEAR CREST AND THE
GRAND RIVER AT IONIA IS FALLING. FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE AT
THOSE LOCATIONS FOR SOME LOWLAND FLOODING. VERY LITTLE PRECIP
IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS... WHICH WILL GIVE THE RIVERS SOME
TIME TO SUBSIDE. RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK COULD BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AGAIN... BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS
CURRENTLY LOW.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1216 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION FIRE UP EARLY THIS MORNING
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
WHILE THE RAP DOES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...REMAIN HARD PRESSED TO FIND ANY OTHER MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEVELOPING CONVECTION SO EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT
SAID...EVEN THE RAP DIES OFF THIS CONVECTION AS IT TRACK NORTH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER
ARIZONA THIS MORNING MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HELPS
INITIATE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WHILE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP LOCALLY UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS INSTABILITY
STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN
PLACE...HOWEVER...DO NOT ANTICIPATE HEATING ALONG WILL BE ABLE TO
GENERATE ACTIVITY...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE REQUIRED
TO REALLY GET CONVECTION GOING LATER IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE IS
AMPLE INSTABILITY ALOFT...WITH MU CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2 KJ/KG
BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH DECENT DEEP LEVEL SHEER...EXPECT
THE HIGH BASE OF THESE STORMS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...PLAN ON ALTERING
THE WORDING IN THE HWO LATER THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING.
LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING...AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...COULD SEE SOME
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL...MAYBE TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS..DEVELOP
IN THESE HIGH BASED STORMS...ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. WHILE FAR FROM A SURE BET...EXPECT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNDER THIS PATTERN
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH THE 00Z WRF BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE OF THE MESO SCALE MODELS...ALBEIT THE HRRR AND RAP
INDICATE SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE HUGE CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST AS IT WAS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH CURRENT THINKING AND
MODEL DATA...AND IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO GO ABOVE A 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES. TEMPERATURE
WISE...WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A COOL FRONT SAGGING
SOUTH...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BE 7-10 DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAYS WARM SPRING READINGS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THERE ARE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE LONG TERM.
SEVERAL OF THESE DAYS EXHIBIT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MOTHERS
DAY HAPPENS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE NEAR
TERM AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE DISCUSSION.
MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRANSITION OF THE 500 MB
TRACK IN THE UPPER LEVELS LEADING UP TO SUNDAY. QUESTIONS ARISE WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW COME SUNDAY...AND WILL PLAY A BIG
ROLE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE. THESE FINER DETAILS
SHOULD BE REEXAMINED COME SUNDAY BECAUSE ONGOING CONVECTION FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL IMPACT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATIONS. MOST UNSTABLE
VALUES RANGE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 1000 TO JUST OVER 3000 J/KG DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. BULK SHEAR (0-6 KM) VALUES RANGE ROUGHLY BETWEEN 30 AND
60 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES RANGE BETWEEN ABOUT 50 AND 100
M^2/S^2. THE OVERNIGHT NIGHT PARAMETERS ARE WEAKER...BUT STILL
SIGNAL A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...THESE VALUES ARE
SUPPORTIVE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND SEVERE WEATHER....ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS
SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LOW...BUT ONE WOULD NOT HAVE TO LOOK TOO FAR FOR
BETTER CHANCES...WHICH WOULD BASICALLY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS. I SUPPOSE THE CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THAT BEING
SAID...THE TORNADIC CHANCE APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THE
HASTINGS FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. BIG PICTURE- WISE...THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IS
GREATEST DURING SUNDAY NIGHT HOURS. QPF VALUES ARE HIGHEST DURING
THIS TIME AS WELL.
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...HOWEVER THE CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LIMITED AT BEST TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREAFTER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEARLY
EVERY PERIOD EXCEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM WITH NO
DAY STANDING OUT. THE COOLEST NIGHT OVERALL IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THESE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM ROUGHLY THE LOWER 40S TO THE MID
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
A COUPLE OF CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. FIRST...THERE ARE A FEW
STATIONS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST THAT HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
THE SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN FIRES. HAVE LEFT OUT THE REDUCED
VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME. BY THE TIME THE SMOKE WOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE TAF LOCATIONS...THE INVERSION SHOULD BE GONE AND THERE SHOULD
BE MIXING THAT WOULD KEEP THE VISIBILITY FROM DECREASING. THE
SECOND CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
559 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION FIRE UP EARLY THIS MORNING
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
WHILE THE RAP DOES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...REMAIN HARD PRESSED TO FIND ANY OTHER MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEVELOPING CONVECTION SO EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT
SAID...EVEN THE RAP DIES OFF THIS CONVECTION AS IT TRACK NORTH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER
ARIZONA THIS MORNING MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HELPS
INITIATE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WHILE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP LOCALLY UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS INSTABILITY
STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN
PLACE...HOWEVER...DO NOT ANTICIPATE HEATING ALONG WILL BE ABLE TO
GENERATE ACTIVITY...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE REQUIRED
TO REALLY GET CONVECTION GOING LATER IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE IS
AMPLE INSTABILITY ALOFT...WITH MU CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2 KJ/KG
BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH DECENT DEEP LEVEL SHEER...EXPECT
THE HIGH BASE OF THESE STORMS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...PLAN ON ALTERING
THE WORDING IN THE HWO LATER THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING.
LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING...AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...COULD SEE SOME
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL...MAYBE TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS..DEVELOP
IN THESE HIGH BASED STORMS...ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. WHILE FAR FROM A SURE BET...EXPECT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNDER THIS PATTERN
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH THE 00Z WRF BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE OF THE MESO SCALE MODELS...ALBEIT THE HRRR AND RAP
INDICATE SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE HUGE CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST AS IT WAS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH CURRENT THINKING AND
MODEL DATA...AND IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO GO ABOVE A 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES. TEMPERATURE
WISE...WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A COOL FRONT SAGGING
SOUTH...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BE 7-10 DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAYS WARM SPRING READINGS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THERE ARE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE LONG TERM.
SEVERAL OF THESE DAYS EXHIBIT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MOTHERS
DAY HAPPENS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE NEAR
TERM AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE DISCUSSION.
MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRANSITION OF THE 500 MB
TRACK IN THE UPPER LEVELS LEADING UP TO SUNDAY. QUESTIONS ARISE WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW COME SUNDAY...AND WILL PLAY A BIG
ROLE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE. THESE FINER DETAILS
SHOULD BE REEXAMINED COME SUNDAY BECAUSE ONGOING CONVECTION FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL IMPACT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATIONS. MOST UNSTABLE
VALUES RANGE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 1000 TO JUST OVER 3000 J/KG DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. BULK SHEAR (0-6 KM) VALUES RANGE ROUGHLY BETWEEN 30 AND
60 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES RANGE BETWEEN ABOUT 50 AND 100
M^2/S^2. THE OVERNIGHT NIGHT PARAMETERS ARE WEAKER...BUT STILL
SIGNAL A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...THESE VALUES ARE
SUPPORTIVE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND SEVERE WEATHER....ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS
SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LOW...BUT ONE WOULD NOT HAVE TO LOOK TOO FAR FOR
BETTER CHANCES...WHICH WOULD BASICALLY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS. I SUPPOSE THE CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THAT BEING
SAID...THE TORNADIC CHANCE APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THE
HASTINGS FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. BIG PICTURE- WISE...THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IS
GREATEST DURING SUNDAY NIGHT HOURS. QPF VALUES ARE HIGHEST DURING
THIS TIME AS WELL.
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...HOWEVER THE CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LIMITED AT BEST TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREAFTER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEARLY
EVERY PERIOD EXCEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM WITH NO
DAY STANDING OUT. THE COOLEST NIGHT OVERALL IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THESE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM ROUGHLY THE LOWER 40S TO THE MID
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALBEIT
EXPECT TO SEE SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
SHIFT AND BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY MIDDAY...WITH WINDS
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY AROUND 07/19Z. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS...INTRODUCED A VCTS FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS OF THE
TAF...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE
ENTIRE TIME PERIOD AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED IN LATER
ISSUANCES.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
358 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION FIRE UP EARLY THIS MORNING
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
WHILE THE RAP DOES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...REMAIN HARD PRESSED TO FIND ANY OTHER MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEVELOPING CONVECTION SO EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT
SAID...EVEN THE RAP DIES OFF THIS CONVECTION AS IT TRACK NORTH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER
ARIZONA THIS MORNING MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HELPS
INITIATE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WHILE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP LOCALLY UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS INSTABILITY
STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN
PLACE...HOWEVER...DO NOT ANTICIPATE HEATING ALONG WILL BE ABLE TO
GENERATE ACTIVITY...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE REQUIRED
TO REALLY GET CONVECTION GOING LATER IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE IS
AMPLE INSTABILITY ALOFT...WITH MU CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2 KJ/KG
BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH DECENT DEEP LEVEL SHEER...EXPECT
THE HIGH BASE OF THESE STORMS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...PLAN ON ALTERING
THE WORDING IN THE HWO LATER THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING.
LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING...AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...COULD SEE SOME
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL...MAYBE TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS..DEVELOP
IN THESE HIGH BASED STORMS...ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. WHILE FAR FROM A SURE BET...EXPECT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNDER THIS PATTERN
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH THE 00Z WRF BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE OF THE MESO SCALE MODELS...ALBEIT THE HRRR AND RAP
INDICATE SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE HUGE CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST AS IT WAS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH CURRENT THINKING AND
MODEL DATA...AND IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO GO ABOVE A 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES. TEMPERATURE
WISE...WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A COOL FRONT SAGGING
SOUTH...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BE 7-10 DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAYS WARM SPRING READINGS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THERE ARE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE LONG TERM.
SEVERAL OF THESE DAYS EXHIBIT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MOTHERS
DAY HAPPENS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE NEAR
TERM AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE DISCUSSION.
MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRANSITION OF THE 500 MB
TRACK IN THE UPPER LEVELS LEADING UP TO SUNDAY. QUESTIONS ARISE WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW COME SUNDAY...AND WILL PLAY A BIG
ROLE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE. THESE FINER DETAILS
SHOULD BE REEXAMINED COME SUNDAY BECAUSE ONGOING CONVECTION FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL IMPACT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATIONS. MOST UNSTABLE
VALUES RANGE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 1000 TO JUST OVER 3000 J/KG DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. BULK SHEAR (0-6 KM) VALUES RANGE ROUGHLY BETWEEN 30 AND
60 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES RANGE BETWEEN ABOUT 50 AND 100
M^2/S^2. THE OVERNIGHT NIGHT PARAMETERS ARE WEAKER...BUT STILL
SIGNAL A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...THESE VALUES ARE
SUPPORTIVE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND SEVERE WEATHER....ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS
SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LOW...BUT ONE WOULD NOT HAVE TO LOOK TOO FAR FOR
BETTER CHANCES...WHICH WOULD BASICALLY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS. I SUPPOSE THE CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THAT BEING
SAID...THE TORNADIC CHANCE APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THE
HASTINGS FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. BIG PICTURE- WISE...THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IS
GREATEST DURING SUNDAY NIGHT HOURS. QPF VALUES ARE HIGHEST DURING
THIS TIME AS WELL.
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...HOWEVER THE CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LIMITED AT BEST TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREAFTER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEARLY
EVERY PERIOD EXCEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM WITH NO
DAY STANDING OUT. THE COOLEST NIGHT OVERALL IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THESE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM ROUGHLY THE LOWER 40S TO THE MID
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF NOTEWORTHY CONCERNS TO MENTION. FIRST
OFF...VWP IS INDICATING ONGOING WIND SHEAR WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
NEAR 50KTS LESS THAN 1KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE. CONTINUED THIS
MENTION THROUGH 12Z AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH ALOFT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VARIABLY CLOUDY
SKIES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
LIKELY PEAKING DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE A MENTION OF A VCSH AFTER ABOUT 08/00Z...ALBEIT
THERE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ADDED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THIS TIME PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON
TIMING/VALIDITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE LOCAL
TERMINALS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1153 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE
PANHANDLE...MOVING EAST...AS FORECAST BY THE HRRR MODEL. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND POSE A WIND
GUST THREAT. THEY ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY COALESCE ACROSS NRN NEB TONIGHT BUT
THE NAM IS SHOWING MUCH LESS STORM COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAYS MODEL
RUN. THUS...LESS STORM COVERAGE WILL HOLD UP THE PROGRESS OF THE
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SWRN NEB AND
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTN.
THIS IS FARTHER NORTH AND THE GFS SHOWS THE SAME PLACING MORE OF
WESTERN AND NCNTL NEB IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. CONRAD SUGGESTS
DOMINANT RIGHT MOVING SUPER CELLS AT THE ONSET. SHEAR WEAKENS IN THE
LATE EVENING AND A MULTICELLS REGIME TAKES HOLD. 0-1KM HELICITY
INCREASE IN THE EARLY EVENING SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
THE LATEST MODEL BLEND PLUS BIAS CORRECTION SHOWS DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 50S ALONG I-80 SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE MET GUIDANCE SHOWS
MID 50S. NONE OF THESE NUMBERS SUGGEST A SHALLOW MIXING HEIGHT BUT
GIVEN THE FRONT AND HIGH HELICITY AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY DEVELOP.
THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST OF TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STORM COVERAGE BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE 700MB WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS INDICATED IN THE NAM MODEL
LIFTING VERY QUICKLY THROUGH THE FCST AREA.
THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A CLOSED H700MB LOW ACROSS ERN
WY/NERN COLO SUNDAY MORNING AT 12Z. THIS LOW MOVES VERY SLOWLY INTO
THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY. THE NAM SHOWS INSTABILITY LIFTING NORTH INTO
NCNTL NEB SUNDAY AFTN. THE ATM SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STORM MODE
IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLNS FOR MONDAY BUT SOME SORT OF
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD STILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS NEBRASKA OR
WRN IA/MN...NWRN KS OR SRN SD. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A LIKELY CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY EAST CLOSER TO THE
WARM SECTOR.
THERE IS NO REAL CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE FRONT IS
FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS SWRN NEB.
HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
40S.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY AND MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AMPLIFY ACROSS WRN N AMERICA
SUPPORTING A FRESH SHOT OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE TO ISOLATED WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW COLD AIR ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES AT H500MB AROUND -18C AND
H700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 0C OR COLDER. THE ECM SHOWS H500MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -25C THURSDAY MORNING.
BIAS CORRECTION ADDED TO THE MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES PRODUCED
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER AND FROST MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WRN SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PANHANDLE. SKIES WOULD NEED TO CLEAR TO
SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS RISE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM KOGA TO KANW
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES
CAN BE EXPECTED. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WINDS. WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS HAVE NOT CARRIED
PREVAILING AT EITHER KLBF OR KVTN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
A FLOOD ADVISORY WITH MINOR FLOODING TO CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER NEAR LEWELLEN. THE CURRENT STAGE AT LEWELLEN IS 7.7
FEET WHICH IS JUST OVER THE FLOOD STAGE OF 7.5 FEET. A SLOW RISE TO
7.9 FEET IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE UPSTREAM AT LISCO. ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
ELEVATED FLOWS WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THIS
TIME...THE SOUTH PLATTE AND MAIN STEM PLATTE RIVER FROM ROSCOE TO
BRADY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
835 PM PDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
SIERRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF LINCOLN COUNTY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN LINCOLN
AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA HAS A MIX OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA HEADING SOUTH TOWARDS ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES. THE HRRR PRIMARILY HIGHLIGHTS LINCOLN AND NORTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTY FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IT TO SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT. WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST
RIDE FOR NOW BUT UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AROUND THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FEET. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST AROUND 7 KTS AFTER 17Z WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS 8-10K FEET. ISOLD
SHRA OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT TSRA NOT EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. CIGS DOWN TO 6K FEET AT TIMES WITH VCNTY SHRA AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. ELSEWHERE, FEW-SCT080 SCT-
BKN120 OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 30KTS OVER
THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT TONIGHT INCLUDING KDAG...DIMINISHING IN
THE MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS MOST AREAS MONDAY WITH FEW-
SCT100. SHRA OVR HIGHER TERRAIN PSBL.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...221 PM PDT...
.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FIRST 12
HOURS OR SO FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT WARMING LATE IN THE WEEK. AS OF
2 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHERN
LINCOLN AND NORTHERN CLARK COUNTIES. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WERE
MUCH LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND ALSO QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. REDUCED AFTERNOON PRECIP CHANCES
QUITE A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WOULD HAVE PREFERRED TO GO
EVEN LOWER...BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF MORE DEVELOPMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG AND NORTH OF AN ARC FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA TO LAS VEGAS TO
SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SINCE THE
MAIN MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS MOVED EAST...MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT...AND HAIL IS NOT AS MUCH OF A
CONCERN TODAY AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. THE LOW LEVELS ARE NOT ESPECIALLY
DRY...SO HIGH WINDS ARE NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN EITHER. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SO ISOLATED FLOODING REMAINS
POSSIBLE UNDER STRONG SLOW MOVING CORES OR WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS
OCCURS. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
HEIGHTS RISE AND THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHEAST MAY PRODUCE
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA CREST AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND DRYING TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES ON
MONDAY...GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. RIDGING THEN
BUILDS IN BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MAY. MOS NUMBERS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY TRENDING
UPWARD FOR THE PAST THREE OR FOUR MODEL RUNS...AND SUSPECT THAT WITH
SUCH A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING...THE RAW MOS MAY
OUTPERFORM BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS. WITH THAT IN MIND...MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH WAS IN LINE WITH THIS
THINKING.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
MORGAN/GORELOW
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
817 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
EDGE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS HIGH WILL THEN SUPPORT
FAIR AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH DAY TO DAY WARMING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SHIFTS INTO NEW YORK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE IS THINNING THIS EVENING WITH RADAR MOSAICS AT
00Z SHOWING JUST WIDELY SCATTERED RETURNS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 700MB RH IS LESS THAN 70% WITH THE
500MB TROUGH AXIS WELL EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND. UPSTREAM RETURNS TO
THE WEST OF BUFFALO ARE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT BUT THE HRRR STILL
SUGGESTS SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO SHIFT ACROSS OUR REGION FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS SO WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS SOME LIMITED FRONTOGENESIS TO OUR NORTHWEST
WHICH MAY BE WHAT DRIVES ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. BY MIDNIGHT EXPECT
NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO BE DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EDGE OVERHEAD.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT TOWARDS OUR
REGION LATER TONIGHT. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE APPROACHING SURFACE
HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY DRY AIR AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION TO PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES. IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN
RECENT NIGHTS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 ALONG THE
LAKE SHORES TO THE MID 30S IN THE SRN TIER VALLEYS AND ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
STABLE SPRING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DAY OF AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES PERHAPS A TOUCH WARMER THAN TODAY WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BUT COOLER FOR THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS...OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS...WILL BE SEPARATED BY A RIDGE OF HIGHER
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO DIVIDE TO TWO REGIONS OF LOW PRESSURE AND
WILL MAINTAIN BENIGN AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND LAKE ERIE BASIN WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA STAYING FREE OF RAIN FOR THE DURATION.
DURING THIS PERIOD...BURGEONING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING INITIALLY
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE ON MONDAY...WITH ITS CORE THEN STRENGTHENING
AND SETTLING ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
ALOFT...ITS PARENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR AND COOL INITIAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE 30S ON MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FROST AWAY FROM THE LAKES.
NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE WITH 850MB TEMPS TO +7C WILL BOOST THE HIGH
TEMPS TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPS REACHING +10C ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE FULL SUN WILL RAISE TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL BREAK
DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WHICH WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH CONSENSUS TIMING SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SLOWER MAINLY DUE
TO THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH IS 6-12 HRS SLOWER THAN GFS/GGEM GUIDANCE.
CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL TAPER OFF FROM W-E ON FRIDAY. THERE
APPEARS AMPLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY TO CAUSE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S...WITH CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
THE WARM SIDE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
BEHIND THE FRONT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF DRIER WEATHER ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE ITS PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BRING PERSISTENT BUT FAIRLY LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCES DURING THE DAY FROM DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT WARM FROM CLIMO-BIASED MOS
CONSIDERING BOTH GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES TO -4C
BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOUND ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS THINNING OUT. HAVE HELD ONTO VCSH AT ONLY KROC AND
KART WITH THE LATEST TAF AS RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NEAR THESE TERMINALS. ALL OTHER SITES RAIN-FREE.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR LATER OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES ACROSS OUR REGION.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ONLY REMAINING ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LAKE ONTARIO
NEARSHORES.
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL PRODUCE
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT FOR MODERATE WESTERLIES ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
MONDAY WITH NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. FORECAST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20 TO LOW 30 PERCENT RANGE
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED
FLAG THRESHOLDS BUT A LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT OVER THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY PUSHING NEAR 25
KNOTS. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A POTENIAL
FOR LAKE BREEZES. 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURES ARE FORECAST BY WFAS TO
BE NEAR 10 PERCENT. RECENT RAINFALL HAS GENERALLY BEEN LESS THAN
QUARTER INCH EXCEPT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE HIGHER WINDS
LOOK TO OCCUR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO SOME NEAR RED FLAG POTENIAL ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT NOT EXPECTING TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ044-
045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH/TMA
MARINE...SMITH/TMA
FIRE WEATHER...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
425 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY
WILL START DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE IN MANY AREAS BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE PRODUCES A FEW SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY. A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SUNSHINE
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG FROM THE UPPER LAKES THIS EVENING INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...FORCING A STRENGTHENING
COLD FRONT TO SURGE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE DPVA REGIME
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT WILL TIGHTEN AND
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...ALLOWING CONVERGENCE TO BECOME MARKEDLY
STRONGER AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
RADAR IMAGERY AT 4PM SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS APPROACHING
WESTERN NEW YORK WHICH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE MOVED UP THE
TIMING OF THE RAIN BY ABOUT 2 HOURS QUICKER BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION
OF RECENT RADAR RETURN AND RECENT HRRR MODELS RUNS. HAVE ALSO BACKED
OFF ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE BASED ON
LACK OF ANY LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED UPSTREAM. AFTER THE LEADING
BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES EAST...SOME TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
WORK OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN EMBEDDED
VORT MAX DIPS ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWEST ACROSS
WESTERN NY WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO DUE TO WEAK RADAR RETURNS
AND LOWER CONVERGENCE...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS LARGE SCALE FORCING AND FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE INCREASE WITH EASTERN EXTENT.
THE RAIN WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH A SOLID CLEARING TREND LATE TONIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT AND CLEARING WILL REACH THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR BY
AROUND 7AM THEN CLEAR LEWIS COUNTY BY 9-10AM SUNDAY.
ONCE THE RAIN CLEARS LEWIS COUNTY...SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN A BRIEF SLOT OF DRY
AIR BETWEEN THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND THE NEXT WAVE. THIS NEXT
WEAK TROUGH AND AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS WEAK ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA...AND COLD AIR ALOFT
COMBINES WITH MODEST DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.
850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -2C ON SUNDAY...AND THIS WILL FORCE A
MUCH COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE
QUITE BREEZY AS WELL WITH A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION IN PLACE...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
QUICKLY END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND A WEAKENING OF
THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHERE SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST WILL
BE THE UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...AND NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE MAY CONTINUE TO GENERATE
A FEW SHOWERS DEEP INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE WITH THE NEARING OF A SURFACE HIGH AND SURFACE
RIDGING/DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. GIVEN WE WILL START THE EVENING
ON THE COOL SIDE...CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DROP THAT MUCH MORE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID
30S ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THE
LAKE PLAINS DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND AIR TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND
60. WHERE CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE THE STILL PRESENT CYCLONIC 500 HPA FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
CLOUDS TO BLOSSOM IN THE LATE MORNING.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO TUESDAY...HOLDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT BAY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT MAY BE JUST FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO
ALLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN DRY OVER OUR CWA.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS ANY NUDGE FARTHER
NORTHWARD TO THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO DRAW A SHOWER OR
TWO UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S...COOLEST
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A FEW MID 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE RUNS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE OUR REGION WILL REMAIN
UNDER A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IS
FORECAST TO PUSH A TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
CONSENSUS TIMING THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND GFS
BEST LI/S DOWN TO -2C.
EXPECT A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BEHIND THIS FEATURE BEFORE THE UPPER LOW
PIVOTS INTO THE LOWER LAKES SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERSISTENT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING SUBTLE FEATURES THE FORECAST WILL CARRY GENERIC CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT
WARMER ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE AIDED BY A
SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY AROUND 60. IN
TERMS OF GUIDANCE...HEDGE WARMER THAN CONSENSUS PRE-COLD FRONT AND
BELOW CONSENSUS FOR SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW LIKELY TO BE OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
WITH A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS. SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY
ALSO SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE YET TO INCLUDE THIS MENTION IN THE TERMINALS.
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRY INITIALLY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP CIGS VFR
AS SHOWERS DEVELOP. BY THE TAIL END OF THE SHOWERS THE LOW LEVELS
WILL SATURATE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF LOWER CIGS JUST AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH MAINLY MVFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE TIME IN THE
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VSBY ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE RAIN INTENSITY WILL BE
GREATER.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A RETURN TO VFR. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. CIGS/VSBY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
VFR WITH THIS FEATURE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES THIS EVENING WITH A ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FORECAST ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
ON LAKE ERIE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO AROUND 20
KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BEFORE WINDS TEMPORARILY SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS...INCLUDING THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING.
ON LAKE ONTARIO...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST ON
SUNDAY AND MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE EAST HALF
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH ON THE WEST HALF.
WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH SLOWLY ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
LOZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
LOZ044-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
634 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DRIER AND VERY BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MILD
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE DELAWARE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLIDE EAST LATE TODAY. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT AND PARTIAL CLEARING
BEHIND THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINNING THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE WEST...AND LATER TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
TEMPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD JUMP A FEW MORE DEG F FROM THEIR
18Z READINGS IN THE U50S TO LOWER 60S...AS CLEARING SPREADS EAST.
COLD FRONT SLIDES SE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
RATHER MEAGER COVERAGE AND AMTS OF RAINFALL WITH THE FROPA. POPS
AND QPF WAS TRIMMED BY ABOUT 1/3 IN MANY LOCATIONS. STILL...SOME
AREAS ACROSS THE WEST COULD SEE 1-2 TENTHS OF RAINFALL...WHILE
LESS THAN ONE TENTH SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WELL BEFORE
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND AN INCREASING NW
BREEZE IN THE 08-12Z PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
STRONG DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND GENERALLY WEAK SFC-850 MB COLD
ADVECTION WILL BRING DRIER AIR BUT QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY.
SOME INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH UNDER THE LOWER
HEIGHTS AND BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG 130-140 KT
300 MB JET MAX.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CREATE
MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES. WILL HOLD ONTO THE 20-30 POPS IN THE
NORTHERN TIER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH NIL POPS FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE WILL BE AN APPROX 10 MB PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE IN
THE MORNING AND THEN MIXING UP TO 5-6KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
MIXING WILL TAP HIGHER WINDS AT CLOUD LEVEL AND SHOULD LEAD TO
GUSTS INTO THE 20S OR EVEN NEAR 30MPH ON THE HIGHER RIDGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW PWAT AIR SLIDES OVER THE STATE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR TOO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY LOW
TEMPS EARLY MONDAY - IN THE 30S AND 40S. PATCHY LIGHT FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS 05-12Z MONDAY.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP TO FORM/ADVECT A WARM
FRONT NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY EVENING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN MTNS OF THE STATE...AND WILL PERSIST
AT ABOUT THE SAME AREAL COVERAGE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CHC FOR
SHOWERS (AND SCATTERED TSRA) INCREASES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS SWRLY LLJ TRANSPORTS BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.
CHC FOR PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA WILL PEAK
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BEFORE THE SFC FRONT BEGINS TO OCCLUDE
AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL.
LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND...NRN STREAM ENERGY WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME JETLETS TO ITS SOUTH WILL BRING LOW CHCS FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA. TEMPS WILL START OUT
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM AIR INTO AND JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF LK ERIE AT 22Z. SCT
-SHRA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL WORK INTO CENTRAL PA THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THRU LATE EVENING DUE
TO DRY AIR IN THE SFC-2KM LAYER.
MAIN CONCERN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW CIGS AT KBFD/KJST JUST BEHIND FRONT...WHERE LOW LVL
MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH AND NW FLOW ASCENDS THE MTNS.
LATEST SREF AND HRRR HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY...ROUGHLY BTWN
06Z-10Z AT KBFD AND BTWN 07Z-11Z AT KJST. FURTHER EAST...THE CHC
OF IFR CIGS APPEARS VERY LOW...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT KAOO/KUNV/KIPT.
GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY...AS STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS MIXING THE SFC IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. MDL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WINDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-14Z WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO NR 25KTS THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
MON-THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT A GENERAL INCREASING CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA TUE-THU.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
MECHANICAL PROBLEM WITH KCCX FORCED IT INTO STANDBY MODE EARLY
THIS MORNING. EL TECHS ARE CURRENTLY AT THE RDA ADDRESSING THE
PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS STILL UNKNOWN ATTM.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
403 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DRIER AND VERY BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MILD
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE DELAWARE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLIDE EAST LATE TODAY. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT AND PARTIAL CLEARING
BEHIND THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINNING THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE WEST...AND LATER TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
TEMPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD JUMP A FEW MORE DEG F FROM THEIR
18Z READINGS IN THE U50S TO LOWER 60S...AS CLEARING SPREADS EAST.
COLD FRONT SLIDES SE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
RATHER MEAGER COVERAGE AND AMTS OF RAINFALL WITH THE FROPA. POPS
AND QPF WAS TRIMMED BY ABOUT 1/3 IN MANY LOCATIONS. STILL...SOME
AREAS ACROSS THE WEST COULD SEE 1-2 TENTHS OF RAINFALL...WHILE
LESS THAN ONE TENTH SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WELL BEFORE
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND AN INCREASING NW
BREEZE IN THE 08-12Z PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
STRONG DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND GENERALLY WEAK SFC-850 MB COLD
ADVECTION WILL BRING DRIER AIR BUT QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY.
SOME INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH UNDER THE LOWER
HEIGHTS AND BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG 130-140 KT
300 MB JET MAX.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CREATE
MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES. WILL HOLD ONTO THE 20-30 POPS IN THE
NORTHERN TIER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH NIL POPS FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE WILL BE AN APPROX 10 MB PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE IN
THE MORNING AND THEN MIXING UP TO 5-6KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
MIXING WILL TAP HIGHER WINDS AT CLOUD LEVEL AND SHOULD LEAD TO
GUSTS INTO THE 20S OR EVEN NEAR 30MPH ON THE HIGHER RIDGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW PWAT AIR SLIDES OVER THE STATE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR TOO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY LOW
TEMPS EARLY MONDAY - IN THE 30S AND 40S. PATCHY LIGHT FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS 05-12Z MONDAY.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP TO FORM/ADVECT A WARM
FRONT NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY EVENING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN MTNS OF THE STATE...AND WILL PERSIST
AT ABOUT THE SAME AREAL COVERAGE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CHC FOR
SHOWERS (AND SCATTERED TSRA) INCREASES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS SWRLY LLJ TRANSPORTS BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.
CHC FOR PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA WILL PEAK
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BEFORE THE SFC FRONT BEGINS TO OCCLUDE
AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL.
LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND...NRN STREAM ENERGY WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME JETLETS TO ITS SOUTH WILL BRING LOW CHCS FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA. TEMPS WILL START OUT
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM AIR INTO AND JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN AIRFIELDS...AND VFR PREVAILS
THROUGH THE AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES.
SCT SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE
AIRSPACE LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT IN ONE OR TWO BANDS...BEFORE
DISSIPATING INTO ZNY SECTOR. A WIND SHIFT FROM WSW TO NNW WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE FROPA WITH SFC GUSTS INCREASING TO 20+KTS INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
VFR WITH A GUSTY NW WIND /20-25 KTS/ WILL OCCUR SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
MON-THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT A GENERAL INCREASING CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA TUE-THU.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
MECHANICAL PROBLEM WITH KCCX FORCED IT INTO STANDBY MODE EARLY
THIS MORNING. EL TECHS ARE CURRENTLY AT THE RDA ADDRESSING THE
PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS STILL UNKNOWN ATTM.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
624 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST
TODAY. AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. THAT FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MILD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY WEAK FORCING AND RATHER DISORGANIZED PATTERN ON RADAR MOSAIC
RIGHT NOW. HAVE TRIED TO TWEAK POPS BASED ON CURRENT POSITION OF
ECHOES...BUT OVERALL IDEA OF DECREASING/DRYING UP IS STILL
FOLLOWED. SEE EQUIP NOTE AT BOTTOM.
PREV...
THE UPPER LOW AND SFC REFLECTION ARE STILL SPINNING OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...FETCH IS BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY/OVER-LAND. THIS SHOULD DRAW IN DRIER AIR AND
DECREASE THE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE SYSTEM. AS IT FILLS
AND MOVES TO THE EAST TODAY...THE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE EARLY IN
THE MORNING IN THE WEST...BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS MAY HAVE SOME
SPRINKLES THROUGH 10 OR 11 AM...AND SOME REAL/ACCUMULATING SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE GOING THRU NOON-1 PM IN THE SE. POPS NEED NOT BE MORE
THAN 50 PCT ANYWHERE SINCE THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY
AND WILL BE DRYING UP. A SLOT OF CLEARING MAY OCCUR IN THE WEST
THIS MORNING BUT WILL CLOSE UP LATE TODAY AS CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST DUE TO UPSTREAM SHRA/TSRA. SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR IN THE
CENTRAL AND THEN EAST AS WELL. BUT IT MAY BE MUCH LIKE THE SKY
OVER WRN PA THIS MORNING WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD DECKS BUT NOT ENOUGH
OPACITY TO CALL IT PLAIN OL CLOUDY. MAXES IN THE 60S WILL BE
ABOUT 10F MILDER TODAY THAN FRIDAY IN THE SE AND A COUPLE DEGS
MILDER IN THE NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. LATEST HI-RES
MDLS KEEP PRECIP OFF UNTIL ABOUT 00Z FOR THE WEST. AN ISOLD SHRA
IS POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN SOMERSET CO BEFORE THEN. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU RATHER QUICKLY...AND WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE SFC
BEFORE PASSAGE. HI-RES MDLS DO GENERATE CONVECTION WITH CELLS
TRACKING NW-SE IN THE SWRN PART OF THE AREA...AND MORE SW-NE IN
THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS ALOFT NOT STRONG AND PROFILE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TSRA WITH ONLY MODEST VEERING AND HOWEVER...SPC
MRGL RISK NEARS THE LAURELS. THINGS GOING AGAINST DEEP CONVECTION
IN CENTRAL PA INCLUDE THE POOR MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE
40S/...TIME OF DAY /AFTER DARK/ AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WHICH THE
EQUALLY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS TRYING TO RUN THROUGH/OVER. QPF
IS PALTRY WITH STORM MOTION MAGNITUDES OF 20-30 MPH AND THE POOR
MOISTURE. WILL KEEP WORDING FOR THUNDER IN THE ISOLD/SLIGHT CHC
RANGE WITH HIGH/CAT POPS IN GENERAL FOR THE NW HALF/TWO-THIRDS OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 00-06Z. SHOWER CHANCES DIMINSH MARKEDLY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES SE AND OFF THE CENTRAL MTNS. DOWNSLOPE AND POOR
CONVERGENCE SHOULD SQUASH THEM RATHER EFFECTIVELY.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WELL BEFORE
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. THE DRIER AIR WILL RUSH IN. SOME INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED IN THE NORTH UNDER THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND WITH HELP FROM
A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LAKE MOISTURE FLUX SOME SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. BUT THE LOW 30 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
SUSTAIN MUCH AND MAKE MORE THAN SPRINKLES. WILL RUN WITH SOME
20-30 POPS IN THE NORTHERN TIER PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HEAVIER AIR SLIDING IN AND A 10MB PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
THE STATE IN THE MORNING AND THEN MIXING UP TO 5-6KFT IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MIXING WILL TAP HIGHER WINDS AT CLOUD LEVEL AND
COULD GENERATE GUSTS INTO THE 20S OR EVEN NEAR 30MPH ON THE
RIDGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW PWAT AIR SLIDES OVER THE STATE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR TOO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY LOW
TEMPS EARLY MONDAY - IN THE 30S AND 40S. PATCHY LIGHT FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS 05-12Z MONDAY.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP TO FORM/ADVECT A WARM
FRONT NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN MTNS OF THE
STATE...AND WILL PERSIST AT ABOUT THE SAME AREAL COVERAGE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CHC FOR SHOWERS (AND SCATTERED TSRA) INCREASES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SWRLY LLJ TRANSPORTS BETTER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.
CHC FOR PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA WILL PEAK
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BEFORE THE SFC FRONT BEGINS TO OCCLUDE
AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL.
LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND...NRN STREAM ENERGY WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME JETLETS TO ITS SOUTH WILL BRING LOW CHCS FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA. TEMPS WILL START OUT
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM INTO...OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OVR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...CAUSING
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA WITH THE FOCUS OF
REMAINING RAIN OVR SE PA. HOWEVER...STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND CIGS SHOULD FALL OVERNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS. VFR CIG STILL
NOTED AT KBFD AS OF 03Z...BUT MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DROP TO
MVFR BY ARND 04Z. BOTH SREF AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST IFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT AT KMDT/KLNS...POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT
KJST/KAOO/KUNV AND UNLIKELY AT KBFD/KIPT.
REMNANTS OF LOW PRES WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA AND RESIDUAL STRATUS
DECK WILL LIKELY LIFT/BREAK UP BY AFTN DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING. MDL SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY SAT AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE
REGION SAT EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA AND POSSIBLE BRIEF
VIS REDUCTIONS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
MECHANICAL PROBLEM WITH KCCX HAS FORCED IT INTO STANDBY MODE. EL
TECHS WILL BE ASSESSING THE SITUATION SHORTLY. RTS UNK ATTM.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
EQUIPMENT...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
423 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST
TODAY. AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. THAT FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MILD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
THE UPPER LOW AND SFC REFLECTION ARE STILL SPINNING OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...FETCH IS BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY/OVER-LAND. THIS SHOULD DRAW IN DRIER AIR AND
DECREASE THE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE SYSTEM. AS IT FILLS
AND MOVES TO THE EAST TODAY...THE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE EARLY IN
THE MORNING IN THE WEST...BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS MAY HAVE SOME
SPRINKLES THROUGH 10 OR 11 AM...AND SOME REAL/ACCUMULATING SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE GOING THRU NOON-1 PM IN THE SE. POPS NEED NOT BE MORE
THAN 50 PCT ANYWHERE SINCE THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY
AND WILL BE DRYING UP. A SLOT OF CLEARING MAY OCCUR IN THE WEST
THIS MORNING BUT WILL CLOSE UP LATE TODAY AS CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST DUE TO UPSTREAM SHRA/TSRA. SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR IN THE
CENTRAL AND THEN EAST AS WELL. BUT IT MAY BE MUCH LIKE THE SKY
OVER WRN PA THIS MORNING WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD DECKS BUT NOT ENOUGH
OPACITY TO CALL IT PLAIN OL CLOUDY. MAXES IN THE 60S WILL BE
ABOUT 10F MILDER TODAY THAN FRIDAY IN THE SE AND A COUPLE DEGS
MILDER IN THE NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. LATEST HI-RES
MDLS KEEP PRECIP OFF UNTIL ABOUT 00Z FOR THE WEST. AN ISOLD SHRA
IS POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN SOMERSET CO BEFORE THEN. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU RATHER QUICKLY...AND WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE SFC
BEFORE PASSAGE. HI-RES MDLS DO GENERATE CONVECTION WITH CELLS
TRACKING NW-SE IN THE SWRN PART OF THE AREA...AND MORE SW-NE IN
THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS ALOFT NOT STRONG AND PROFILE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TSRA WITH ONLY MODEST VEERING AND HOWEVER...SPC
MRGL RISK NEARS THE LAURELS. THINGS GOING AGAINST DEEP CONVECTION
IN CENTRAL PA INCLUDE THE POOR MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE
40S/...TIME OF DAY /AFTER DARK/ AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WHICH THE
EQUALLY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS TRYING TO RUN THROUGH/OVER. QPF
IS PALTRY WITH STORM MOTION MAGNITUDES OF 20-30 MPH AND THE POOR
MOISTURE. WILL KEEP WORDING FOR THUNDER IN THE ISOLD/SLIGHT CHC
RANGE WITH HIGH/CAT POPS IN GENERAL FOR THE NW HALF/TWO-THIRDS OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 00-06Z. SHOWER CHANCES DIMINSH MARKEDLY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES SE AND OFF THE CENTRAL MTNS. DOWNSLOPE AND POOR
CONVERGENCE SHOULD SQUASH THEM RATHER EFFECTIVELY.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WELL BEFORE
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. THE DRIER AIR WILL RUSH IN. SOME INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED IN THE NORTH UNDER THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND WITH HELP FROM
A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LAKE MOISTURE FLUX SOME SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. BUT THE LOW 30 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
SUSTAIN MUCH AND MAKE MORE THAN SPRINKLES. WILL RUN WITH SOME
20-30 POPS IN THE NORTHERN TIER PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HEAVIER AIR SLIDING IN AND A 10MB PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
THE STATE IN THE MORNING AND THEN MIXING UP TO 5-6KFT IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MIXING WILL TAP HIGHER WINDS AT CLOUD LEVEL AND
COULD GENERATE GUSTS INTO THE 20S OR EVEN NEAR 30MPH ON THE
RIDGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW PWAT AIR SLIDES OVER THE STATE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR TOO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY LOW
TEMPS EARLY MONDAY - IN THE 30S AND 40S. PATCHY LIGHT FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS 05-12Z MONDAY.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP TO FORM/ADVECT A WARM
FRONT NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN MTNS OF THE
STATE...AND WILL PERSIST AT ABOUT THE SAME AREAL COVERAGE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CHC FOR SHOWERS (AND SCATTERED TSRA) INCREASES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SWRLY LLJ TRANSPORTS BETTER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.
CHC FOR PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA WILL PEAK
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BEFORE THE SFC FRONT BEGINS TO OCCLUDE
AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL.
LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND...NRN STREAM ENERGY WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME JETLETS TO ITS SOUTH WILL BRING LOW CHCS FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA. TEMPS WILL START OUT
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM INTO...OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OVR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...CAUSING
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA WITH THE FOCUS OF
REMAINING RAIN OVR SE PA. HOWEVER...STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND CIGS SHOULD FALL OVERNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS. VFR CIG STILL
NOTED AT KBFD AS OF 03Z...BUT MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DROP TO
MVFR BY ARND 04Z. BOTH SREF AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST IFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT AT KMDT/KLNS...POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT
KJST/KAOO/KUNV AND UNLIKELY AT KBFD/KIPT.
REMNANTS OF LOW PRES WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA AND RESIDUAL STRATUS
DECK WILL LIKELY LIFT/BREAK UP BY AFTN DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING. MDL SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY SAT AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE
REGION SAT EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA AND POSSIBLE BRIEF
VIS REDUCTIONS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
111 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST
TODAY. AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. THAT FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS STILL ROTATING THROUGH...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH RIGHT
NOW. THE FLOW IS BECOMING MORE OF A NE FETCH AND WILL DRY THINGS
UP AS WE MOVE INTO THE MORNING. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO LATE MORNING IN THE SE...BUT TAKE A BREAK FOR THE MORNING
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
PREV...
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY FROM EARLIER IN THE
EVENING. THE HRRR AND BOTH THE ARW AND NMM WRF MEMBERS SHOW THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING...BUT SHRINKING IN COVERAGE THE
DEEPER INTO THE EVENING WE GO...AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE OVERNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEG ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE TONIGHT BEFORE FILLING AND GETTING KICKED OUT TO SEA BY
AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WNW ON SAT. THERE MIGHT BE
A LULL IN THE PRECIP ON SAT IN BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS.
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MANAGE TO NUDGE SOME SEASONABLY MILD AIR
IN FROM THE SW. MAXES SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD
HELP GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY AND CAPE...ALLOWING CONVECTION TO
FORM ALONG AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW/FRONT. WILL JUST MENTION
SOME TS IN THE LATE AFTN IN THE W AND CARRY IT INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS FOR THE FIRST PART OF SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.
AGAIN...MOISTURE STILL LACKING AND THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL TO A RELATIVE MINIMUM. LITTLE/NO RISK
FOR BOTH SEVERE AND FLOODING. THE 8H TEMPS FROM 10-12C DOWN TO
AROUND A FEW DEGS EITHER SIDE OF 0C BY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODERATELY STRONG LLVL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING GUSTY NW WINDS
(PEAK GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS) WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SFC RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW PWAT AIR SLIDES OVER THE STATE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR TOO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY LOW
TEMPS EARLY MONDAY - IN THE 30S AND 40S. PATCHY LIGHT FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS 05-12Z MONDAY.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP TO FORM/ADVECT A WARM
FRONT NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN MTNS OF THE
STATE...AND WILL PERSIST AT ABOUT THE SAME AREAL COVERAGE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CHC FOR SHOWERS (AND SCATTERED TSRA) INCREASES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SWRLY LLJ TRANSPORTS BETTER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.
CHC FOR PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA WILL PEAK
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BEFORE THE SFC FRONT BEGINS TO OCCLUDE
AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL.
LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND...NRN STREAM ENERGY WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME JETLETS TO ITS SOUTH WILL BRING LOW CHCS FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA. TEMPS WILL START OUT
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM INTO...OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OVR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...CAUSING
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA WITH THE FOCUS OF
REMAINING RAIN OVR SE PA. HOWEVER...STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND CIGS SHOULD FALL OVERNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS. VFR CIG STILL
NOTED AT KBFD AS OF 03Z...BUT MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DROP TO
MVFR BY ARND 04Z. BOTH SREF AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST IFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT AT KMDT/KLNS...POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT
KJST/KAOO/KUNV AND UNLIKELY AT KBFD/KIPT.
REMNANTS OF LOW PRES WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA AND RESIDUAL STRATUS
DECK WILL LIKELY LIFT/BREAK UP BY AFTN DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING. MDL SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY SAT AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE
REGION SAT EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA AND POSSIBLE BRIEF
VIS REDUCTIONS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
310 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ARE CREATING A NW FLOW OVER MIDDLE TN. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE INITIATING DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRETCHING
FROM NRN MO BACK TO SD. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO FIRE ACROSS
MO/IL AND TRACK SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING CENTRAL KY AND POSSIBLY
NRN/NERN MIDDLE TN TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT OVERNIGHT AND
THE HRRR SHOWS MORE CONVECTION TRACKING ACROSS OUR NERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS A RESULT. BUT GIVEN OUR DRY WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC
WOULD THINK MOST ACTIVITY WOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST...POSSIBLY CLIPPING A FEW OF OUR NERN COUNTIES. KEPT SLIGHT
CHC POPS OVERNIGHT AND ALL OTHER AREAS DRY.
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS BEGINS TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST
ON SUNDAY...PUSHING THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OVERHEAD AND KEEPING
US MOSTLY DRY UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. WITH RETURN FLOW ON SUNDAY...DO
NOT SEE ANY REASON TO NOT GO MID 80S FOR HIGHS SO WILL BUMP THOSE
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR SUNDAY UP A FEW DEGREES. THAT FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AROUND...BUT
STILL THINK LOW 80S FOR HIGHS ON AVERAGE WILL BE MET.
THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL TRACK TOWARDS
THE DAKOTAS...SWINGING A LOBE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY
MON NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS WRN
TN...MAYBE CLIPPING AREAS OF MIDDLE TN ALONG AND WEST OF I-65.
FORECAST SFC CAPE IS FAIR BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GOOD
(40-50KT). IF SFC CAPE IS REALIZED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...LOOKS
LIKE A DECENT SHOT AT STRONG-SEVERE STORMS. THE FORCING GETS MESSY
ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE ENVIRONMENT STAYS UNSTABLE SO MAY HAVE A
STRONG-SEVERE STORM THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WITHOUT A
STRONG FORCING MECHANISM OVERHEAD OTHER THAN HEATING OF THE
DAY...WILL JUST KEEP CHC POPS AROUND. ON THURSDAY A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE PAC
NW PUSHES THROUGH MIDDLE TN. THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER CHC FOR
POSSIBLE STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WITH THE FROPA THURSDAY BUT THAT
WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HEATING OF
THE DAY. SHOULD BE DRY BEHIND THAT FRONT WITH TEMPS STAYING MILD.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE HIGH IS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH WITH A STRONG
WESTERLY BREEZE DEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND A WARM
FRONT SETTING UP TO THE NORTH. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24
HRS WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 61 86 62 83 63 / 10 10 10 10 40
CLARKSVILLE 58 83 61 80 62 / 10 10 10 20 60
CROSSVILLE 57 78 58 80 60 / 10 10 10 10 20
COLUMBIA 59 83 61 81 62 / 10 10 10 10 40
LAWRENCEBURG 58 84 60 81 61 / 10 10 10 10 40
WAVERLY 59 84 62 80 62 / 10 10 10 20 60
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........08
LONG TERM..................AL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1055 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD REASONING.
WEST TO WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MID MORNING MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY. LITTLE TO NO CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ANDRADE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY MID
MORNING MONDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TODAYS WIND SPEEDS.
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ANDRADE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES TODAY...
MIGHT BE A RACE AGAINST TIME TO SEE WHAT PREVAILS (DRY AIR VS.
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS) THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PANHANDLES. ALL IN ALL, THINGS ON THIS SIDE OF THE STATE LINE WOULD
BE THE INITIATION POINT FOR STORMS AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHERN WYOMING. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CURRENTLY ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY SLOT ALSO PUSHING INTO TEXAS IN THE MID LEVELS
FOLLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A SHARPENING AND BULGING
DRYLINE. BULGE OF THE DRYLINE NOW NOSING INTO CANADIAN...LEAVING A
SMALL SLIVER OF MID TO UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS TO THE NORTH ACROSS
BEAVER, OCHILTREE AND LIPSCOMB COUNTIES AND LOW 50S ACROSS
COLLINGSWORTH AND WHEELER COUNTIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A SLOW
WEST TO EAST EROSION TO THE CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, AND CAP FROM THIS MORNING SHOULD BE ERODING SHORTLY IF IT
HASN`T ALREADY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BETWEEN THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA PAINT THE PICTURE OF THE GRADIENT QUITE WELL. A VERY THIN
RIBBON OF MLCAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MAY PERSIST RIGHT ALONG
THE OK/TX STATE LINE. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NEARLY
INVERTED-V PROFILES WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE COULD SPIT OUT A FEW LARGE HAIL STONES, THOUGH FURTHER
EAST IN OKLAHOMA THOSE PROFILES, AS WELL AS TORNADO POTENTIAL BECOME
MUCH MORE FAVORABLE.
ELSENHEIMER
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MOVING MUCH SLOWER TO THE
NORTHEAST AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS MODEL RUNS. AS A RESULT A FEW
MINOR SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. THIS AFTERNOON THE DRY LINE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES BEFORE THE STORMS PUSH INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WILL ADJUST
POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON LAST MINUTE TRENDS. WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME POTENTIAL BLOWING DUST WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING TOWARD
SUNSET.
ON MONDAY THE LAST WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH WITH THE WAVE...WITH OTHER MODELS LESS
FAVORABLE. IN ANY CASE...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES. IF CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCE FOR VIRGA BOMBS WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OR BELOW
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...DRY AND BREEZY AGAIN ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FINAL DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING COOLING
TEMPERATURES TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH GENERATE RAIN
CHANCES WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS DRIVEN INTO THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AS WINDS TURN
MORE ERLY WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE POOLING AND UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. MODEL PRECIP IS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS THERE ARE LITTLE UPPER DYNAMICS AT
PLAY. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THIS CONTINUES TO
BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ALSO MODELS APPEAR TO BE DIVERGING IN
SOLUTIONS AT THAT TIME FRAME AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WANE TOWARD SUNSET ACROSS
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLE. UNTIL THAT TIME...ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. ISOLATED
MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE LAST PIECE OF
ENERGY FROM AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A SLOW
MOISTENING TREND WILL OCCUR AROUND MID WEEK AND THERE MAY BE SOME
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 83 51 84 49 89 / 5 5 0 5 5
BEAVER OK 85 51 82 49 91 / 20 10 0 5 5
BOISE CITY OK 75 44 77 44 86 / 10 5 20 5 10
BORGER TX 85 53 87 51 91 / 5 5 0 5 5
BOYS RANCH TX 84 51 84 48 90 / 5 5 0 5 0
CANYON TX 85 50 85 47 91 / 5 5 0 5 0
CLARENDON TX 85 54 84 52 90 / 10 5 0 5 5
DALHART TX 80 46 79 45 87 / 5 5 5 5 5
GUYMON OK 81 49 80 48 89 / 10 5 20 5 5
HEREFORD TX 83 51 85 49 91 / 5 5 0 5 0
LIPSCOMB TX 87 54 85 52 90 / 50 10 0 5 0
PAMPA TX 85 53 82 52 89 / 10 5 0 5 5
SHAMROCK TX 86 58 86 53 91 / 20 10 5 5 0
WELLINGTON TX 88 59 88 53 92 / 10 10 5 5 5
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
917 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Updated forecast package to delete the expired Severe Thunderstorm
Watch and to update current conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Another upper level disturbance will move eastward across the
forecast area during the overnight hours. Have left showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast but do not expect the storms to be
as strong as we experienced earlier this evening. Precipitation
should be exiting our eastern counties soon after daybreak.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 at the northern
terminals. Ceilings at the southern terminals should degrade to
MVFR around midnight...lifting to VFR by late morning. Scattered
thunderstorms will develop after midnight across most of the area
and thus will keep VCTS at the terminals for now. The winds will
continue from the south with gusts to around 25 knots.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)
Dryline storms rapidly developing this afternoon across the
eastern Permian Basin and western Concho Valley. TTU WRF and the
latest HRRR showed this nicely, and indicate that the storms
should continue to increase in coverage through the evening hours,
with perhaps another round developing after 06Z as the cold front
plows into the area. Storms should shift east out of the area
after sunrise Monday as drier air works it way in from the west.
LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Upper level shortwave trough exits to the east and leaves dry
conditions for Monday Night. However, could see a few storms
develop across the far southeast counties on Tuesday and Tuesday
Night as the low level moisture returns just ahead of anotherweak
shortwave. Better coverage of storms possible Wednesday and
Thursday as a cold front moves into the area. Upper level ridge
tries to build into the Southern Rockies for the weekend,
producing northwest flow across the Southern Plains. Combine this
with a dryline from the Panhandle to the Permian Basin and this
sets the stage for more convection possible for next Saturday and
Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 63 86 59 94 / 60 10 0 0
San Angelo 65 89 58 93 / 50 10 0 5
Junction 67 91 61 92 / 40 10 5 20
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
729 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.AVIATION...
FAIRLY DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FAVORING BREEZY OR WINDY MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT WINDS. A SURFACE DRY LINE WITH OUTFLOW
ENHANCEMENT WILL RETREAT WEST AND NORTHWEST TO ABOUT A KLBB TO
KCDS LINE BY MID OR LATE EVENING. MAJORITY OF THUNDER ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF THIS LINE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
PRECISE PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BECOME APPARENT UNTIL
LATER AND MAY REQUIRE TAF ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL IF NEAR ENOUGH.
MOISTURE WILL SCOUR EAST AGAIN EARLY MONDAY AND SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF TODAY IF NOT EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/
SHORT TERM...
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE TODAY BUT ARE STARTING TO GET WITH
THE PROGRAM AS OF 20Z WITH SEVERAL TTU MESONET LOCATIONS NOW
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. WOULD
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET AS LOWER AND MID LEVEL
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MAKING GOOD
HEADWAY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. STILL THINK WE WILL SEE SOME
GUSTS IN THE 45-50 MPH RANGE AT MANY LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WIND ADVISORY THROUGH
01Z.
WINDS HAVE VEERED AND DEWPOINTS HAVE CRASHED AT MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE CWA...SAVE PERHAPS EXTREME EASTERN AREA. DESPITE
THIS...SUPER RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING A GROWING CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND WE MAY SEE A HIGH BASED STORM OR
TWO FORM FROM CHILDRESS DOWN TO ASPERMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR JUST EAST OF CWA WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE IS MAINTAINED. A DIFFERENT STORY MAY EXIST LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR...YANKING DRYLINE WEST ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS TO THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. GFS AND HRRR SHOW
CONVECTION INITIATING AND/OR ADVECTING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
THIS EVENING WHILE TTU WRF KEEPS ACTIVITY JUST EAST OF STONEWALL
COUNTY. WHILE CLEAR FROM A SLAM DUNK SCENARIO...IF STORMS DO FIRE
THERE WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...CAPE AND SHEAR TO
RESULT IN SEVERE WIND/HAIL SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WE WILL BE
WATCHING FOR.
SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL BE THE
SAME OLD STORY WITH THE WIND AS LOW TO MID LEVEL GRADIENTS REMAIN
QUITE STOUT. WEST WINDS SHOULD CRANK BACK UP TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...IF NOT SOONER...COMPLETE
WITH PATCHY BLOWING DUST ON THE CAPROCK. JW
LONG TERM...
GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY IS LEADING TO FEW CHANGES THIS THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA TUESDAY MAY BE
ABLE TO UNLOCK AIR MASS THAT IS PROGGED TO HAVE DEW POINTS NEAR 50
DEGREES. NOTHING SPECIAL THERE...BUT CERTAINLY WORTHY OF
CONTINUING THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE
WEEKEND. GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FCST AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...POSSIBLY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL INTERACTION...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF THAT SCENARIO SOME. SETUP
REMINISCENT OF A MID-SUMMER NORTHWEST FLOW SCENARIO. DEW POINTS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S POSSIBLY WITH A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW
SUGGESTS POPS OF 20-30 PCT STILL JUSTIFIED.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>043.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1234 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREEZY SE WINDS UP TO 25 KT
WL PERSIST THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH TX. ISOLATED TSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE. THESE STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING KLRD BUT WL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SHRA DURING THE 03Z TO 06Z PERIOD. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BEGIN
DEVELOPING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PEAK THROUGH THE MID-MORNING
TIMEFRAME. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN SLOWLY LIFTING THEREAFTER AS MIXING
ENSUES. THIS MIXING WL PRODUCE EVEN WINDIER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS KCRP.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016/
DISCUSSION...MORE SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TDA AS A
MODERATE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING. MORE CUMULUS...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WL TEMPER HIGHS BY A DEG OR TWO COMPARED TO YDA
ACROSS MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. MARGINAL
CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG...MID-LVL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
IMPINGING UPON THE SIERRA MADRE WL PRODUCE ISOLATED MEXICAN
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING LA SALLE OR WEBB
COUNTIES GIVEN THE MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THIS
RGN. HOWEVER...WL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHC POPS AS ONE OR
TWO WEAKENING STORMS MAY MAKE INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA BY THIS
EVE. HOWEVER WL ADJUST THE POPS SLIGHTLY WWD. OTHERWISE...THE
CURRENT FCST PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR EDITS MADE TO
THE GRIDS.
MARINE...WL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR THE SRN
BAYS AND SRN NEARSHORE WATERS OUT TO 20 NM BASED UPON THE
INCREASING PGF. BORDERLINE SCA BUT MOST LKLY SCEC CONDITIONS WL
OCCUR ELSEWHERE THROUGH TNT. MORE WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE PGF INCREASES EVEN MORE DUE TO THE
APPROACHING MID/UPR TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED S/WVS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 86 70 85 74 89 / 10 0 10 20 20
VICTORIA 85 67 82 71 85 / 10 10 10 20 30
LAREDO 95 71 92 71 98 / 10 20 10 20 10
ALICE 90 67 88 73 94 / 10 10 10 20 20
ROCKPORT 84 72 84 76 83 / 10 0 10 20 20
COTULLA 92 68 92 70 96 / 10 20 20 20 10
KINGSVILLE 89 69 87 73 94 / 10 10 10 20 20
NAVY CORPUS 83 73 83 75 83 / 10 0 10 20 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
MB/80...AVIATION
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1231 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
See 18z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
elevated and gusty this afternoon with MAF and FST out of the
south southeast and the other terminals out of the southwest.
Gusty winds are expected to continue into the overnight hours for
MAF and FST. Winds will become elevated out of the west to
southwest around 15z Sunday. There is a chance of thunderstorms
for MAF and FST through this evening but chances are too low to
mention in the TAFs at this time.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 431 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016/
DISCUSSION...As of 4:15 AM CDT Saturday...KMAF radar is starting
to pick up convection moving out of Chihuahua into the Big Bend of
Texas just to the east of Presidio.
Satl imagery and GOES High Density Winds show a broad upper low
centered over Southern Nevada with deep southwest flow aloft as
seen in the latest KMAF VAD wind profile.
Looking at the various model data it appears that the higher
resolution GFS20 has the best handle on the pattern and convection
moving into the Big Bend. As the upper low moves slowly into the
Central Plains over the weekend weak shortwaves will move over the
Southern Plains in the southwest flow aloft. The dryline will
sharpen this aftn/evening over the Central CWA with convection
possible from the Central Permian Basin down to Big Bend. Some
storms could be strong to marginally severe with the biggest
threat strong winds as bases will be high and the T/DP depression
fairly large. The dryline will move east on Sunday with the best
chance for convection in the easternmost portions of the CWA.
Convection could develop further west into the Permian Basin
Sunday night as the dryline retreats and the main upper trough
passes across the Southern Plains. Temps this weekend will be near
to a little above normal.
Mainly dry weather with above normal temperatures is expected
Monday thru Wednesday next week with zonal flow aloft ushering in
drier air. Models are indicating that convection could return to
the Southern Plains the end of next week as the dryline retreats
to the mountains. Medium range models are showing a mid level
ridge over the Intermountain West with weak shortwaves moving
across the Southern Plains in the northwest flow aloft. It will be
interesting to see how future model runs handle this pattern.
Strobin
FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers and thunderstorms that moved
across the area on Friday and Friday night did not provide much in
the way of needed rainfall across the area. Effects of rainfall
that did occur were mostly negated by the strong gusty winds
accompanying the storms. Thus, critical fire weather conditions
are expected to develop across western portions of the area today,
mainly from the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe
Mountains south through the Van Horn/Highway 54 Corridor to the
Marfa Plateau and Davis/Apache Mountains. RH values in that area
this afternoon are expected to drop to 8 to 13 percent, with
southwesterly 20ft winds of 20-30 MPH behind a dryline. Winds
could be greater across the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and
Davis/Apache Mountains. While temperatures will be near to
slightly above normal, the dry and windy conditions as well as the
cured condition of available fuels are expected to result in
critical fire weather conditions with high fire danger to
materialize by mid to late morning through this evening. Thus, a
Red Flag Warning has been issued for the aforementioned area from
later this morning through this evening.
On Sunday, westerly/southwesterly winds will increase across the
area as the dryline pushes east and the trough axis nears the
region. Given poor nocturnal recovery expected tonight along and
west of the Pecos River, except for the Lower Trans Pecos and Big
Bend Area where fair recovery is expected, critical fire weather
conditions may develop again across the west on Sunday. Currently,
minimum RH values Sunday look to drop to 10-15 percent for all but
the eastern Permian Basin and far Lower Trans Pecos. Given most
locations along/west of the Pecos River still have cured fuels, the
fire weather situation on Sunday depends on where the dryline sets
up today, and whether any locations receive much-needed rainfall.
Will defer to later shifts for potential issuance of a Fire Weather
Watch for Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 88 64 87 59 / 20 30 10 30
Carlsbad 89 56 82 52 / 10 10 0 10
Dryden 90 69 89 62 / 30 30 20 20
Fort Stockton 94 63 90 57 / 30 20 10 20
Guadalupe Pass 79 51 70 50 / 10 0 0 10
Hobbs 87 51 79 51 / 10 10 0 10
Marfa 88 48 80 43 / 10 10 10 10
Midland Intl Airport 90 64 87 56 / 20 30 10 20
Odessa 89 64 86 58 / 20 30 10 20
Wink 96 57 89 56 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
Mountains-Southeast Plains.
TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa
Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.
&&
$$
99/99/
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1217 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving east-northeast
across the southern 1/3 of West Central Texas due to an upper
level disturbance moving by. For this afternoon, expanded the
slight chance Pops further east across the Northwest Hill Country
and Concho and Runnels counties. Otherwise, the current forecast
looks good.
&&
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals this afternoon through the
early morning hours on Sunday. However, stratus will develop
along the I-10 corridor and Heartland Sunday morning. Going with
MVFR ceilings at the southern terminals after 09Z. The winds will
be from the south with gusts to 25 knots. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible across much of the area, but will not
mention for the terminals.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 653 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected across the terminals through this
evening, with some MVFR ceilings developing across the southern
terminals after 08/09Z. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop west of the terminals late this afternoon.
A few showers and thunderstorms may approach the terminals this
evening. However, limited coverage will preclude mentioning in the
forecast at this time.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 432 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Southwest flow aloft will remain over the area the next 24 hours
ahead of a deep upper low over the southwest states. The dryline
will remain west of the area this afternoon and evening, extending
from the panhandle, southwest across the Permian Basin and into
southwest Texas. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the vicinity of the dryline by peak heating,
with this activity making a run for our western counties by late
afternoon and early evening. Latest HRRR has convection entering far
western portions of the Big Country, Concho Valley and northern
Edwards Plateau after 22Z. Convection should weaken with the loss of
daytime heating but could see activity linger into the mid to late
evening hours as it moves northeast across mainly the western half
of the forecast area. A few strong or isolated severe storms will be
possible initially, with large hail and damaging winds possible
through early evening generally west of a Haskell, Sterling City to
Ozona line.
Breezy south to southeast winds will occur again today, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s. For the overnight
period, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with lows in the
middle 60s.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
The upper low developing over the southwest United States Sunday,
will bring increasing low level moisture and instability to the
region. There is slight risk for severe weather is Sunday
afternoon and evening as storms develop off a dryline from Iraan
to Sterling City to Sweetwater, then move east. The main severe
potential is across the Big Country, along and north of I-20,
however, isolated severe thunderstorms will also be possible
farther south. The main threats are large hail and damaging winds.
A few thunderstorms will remain possible Monday in extreme
eastern sections of West Central Texas as a surface trough moves
east bringing in dry southwest winds. Highs in the upper 80s are
expected Monday, with lower 90s Tuesday, with dry air and full
sun.
Moisture returns Tuesday night, with a weak cold front Wednesday
night. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night, with the best chance along and east
of a Sonora to Brownwood line. Isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible through the end of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 84 65 86 63 / 10 20 30 50
San Angelo 86 66 87 63 / 20 20 30 50
Junction 85 65 84 67 / 20 20 30 40
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
943 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE RETURNED MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. ALTHOUGH MORNING SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MIXING WILL DROP THESE SOME...WILL ADJUST GRIDS TO BETTER
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS ANOTHER
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY UNFOLDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX.
EVANS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER HIGH PLAINS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS TEXAS...
CAUSING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME SOUTHERLY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY MIDDAY. EXPECT INLAND WINDS TO
RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT /FALLING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS/ WITH ELEVATED
WINDS PERSISTING AT GALVESTON AND ANGLETON. ADDITIONALLY...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUDS TO FORM
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS TERMINALS SUNDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MVFR RESTRICTIONS ATTM.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 85 65 81 69 82 / 0 10 10 20 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 86 65 82 71 82 / 0 0 10 20 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 71 79 74 80 / 0 0 10 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
653 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected across the terminals through this
evening, with some MVFR ceilings developing across the southern
terminals after 08/09Z. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop west of the terminals late this afternoon.
A few showers and thunderstorms may approach the terminals this
evening. However, limited coverage will preclude mentioning in the
forecast at this time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 432 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Southwest flow aloft will remain over the area the next 24 hours
ahead of a deep upper low over the southwest states. The dryline
will remain west of the area this afternoon and evening, extending
from the panhandle, southwest across the Permian Basin and into
southwest Texas. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the vicinity of the dryline by peak heating,
with this activity making a run for our western counties by late
afternoon and early evening. Latest HRRR has convection entering far
western portions of the Big Country, Concho Valley and northern
Edwards Plateau after 22Z. Convection should weaken with the loss of
daytime heating but could see activity linger into the mid to late
evening hours as it moves northeast across mainly the western half
of the forecast area. A few strong or isolated severe storms will be
possible initially, with large hail and damaging winds possible
through early evening generally west of a Haskell, Sterling City to
Ozona line.
Breezy south to southeast winds will occur again today, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s. For the overnight
period, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with lows in the
middle 60s.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
The upper low developing over the southwest United States Sunday,
will bring increasing low level moisture and instability to the
region. There is slight risk for severe weather is Sunday
afternoon and evening as storms develop off a dryline from Iraan
to Sterling City to Sweetwater, then move east. The main severe
potential is across the Big Country, along and north of I-20,
however, isolated severe thunderstorms will also be possible
farther south. The main threats are large hail and damaging winds.
A few thunderstorms will remain possible Monday in extreme
eastern sections of West Central Texas as a surface trough moves
east bringing in dry southwest winds. Highs in the upper 80s are
expected Monday, with lower 90s Tuesday, with dry air and full
sun.
Moisture returns Tuesday night, with a weak cold front Wednesday
night. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night, with the best chance along and east
of a Sonora to Brownwood line. Isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible through the end of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 84 65 86 63 / 10 20 30 50
San Angelo 86 66 87 63 / 20 20 30 50
Junction 85 65 84 67 / 10 20 30 40
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
99/99/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
432 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE ON TAP FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WITH
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS (INCLUDING SEVERE WEATHER) ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THEREAFTER...RAIN CHANCES RETURN AS SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
...SHORT TERM (TODAY AND SUNDAY)...
FOR TODAY...IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALED THAT HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUED TO STREAM IN FROM THE NOW DECAYING CONVECTION THAT
FIRED EARLIER ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
TODAY`S TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE (SERVING AS THE
CENTERPIECE FOR THE OMEGA PATTERN) PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS. TOWARDS
TONIGHT...A MIX OF BOTH HIGH AND COARSE RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. SURFACE AND
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AT THIS HOUR SUGGESTS THAT DEEP RICH
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF REMAINS FAIRLY SCANT AND WHILE THERE WILL
BE A TRANSITION FROM THE MORE SUBSIDENT REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE TO NEAR NEUTRAL OR WEAK ASCENT WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...THE LACK OF GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...I WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES MAINLY WEST OF I-35 THIS EVENING AND TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY.
FOR SUNDAY...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD FINALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. WITH THE WEAK WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME...THERE IS A
FAIRLY CONSISTENT QPF SIGNAL FROM A MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE THAT
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE LOW LEVELS MAY STILL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE AND IT`S LIKELY THAT MOST
PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY ON SUNDAY MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED
POPS UPWARD INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE WITH A GOOD CONSENSUS
FROM MOST SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGED GUIDANCE. THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE ELEVATED
NATURE OF CONVECTION AND THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...A FEW BOUTS
OF SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES.
THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY AS A LARGE CHUNK OF
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OUT ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY AHEAD OF THE SHARPENING DRYLINE THAT WILL FOR THE MOST
PART MIX TO THE EAST VERY SLOWLY. A STOUT CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY. IN
ADDITION...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER ANY DIABATIC HEATING
WHICH MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE TO ASSIST IN THE EROSION OF THE CAP. AS
STRONGER FORCING FROM THE LEAD WAVE OF THE UPPER TROUGH GRAZES THE
AREA AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE DRYLINE BULGE THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME
FRAME...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN ZONES. AN
EXAMINATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS
REVEALS THAT THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A 1500 J/KG OF CAPE AS
WELL AS DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS DUE TO HIGH LCLS AND A LARGE
AMOUNT OF DCAPE. THE HIGH LCLS IMPLY THAT THE TORNADO RISK WILL BE
A LOWER THREAT COMPARED TO THE HAIL/DOWNBURST WIND THREAT.
AS STRONG FORCING CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND GRADUALLY
STABILIZING SURFACE LAYER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
IN NATURE WHICH MAY DIMINISH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN ADVANCE OF THE EASTWARD MOVING STORMS MAY
ALSO SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY LOWER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
...LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
FOR MONDAY...THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AREAL EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND MAY OCCUR WITH CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
WHICH MAY PRESERVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE
WILL DICTATE WHICH AREAS WILL SEE STORMS. THE TREND THIS YEAR HAS
CERTAINLY BEEN FOR MODELS TO QUICKLY MIX THE DRYLINE TOO FAR TO
THE EAST...EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT FORCING. THE LATEST
CONSENSUS AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE PASSAGE OF THE
DRYLINE JUST A BIT AND PLACES IT NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO
00 UTC TUES (COMPARED TO 18 UTC MON IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS). WITH
AN ADDITIONAL DAY OF GOOD SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
(WHEREVER IT SETS UP)...A DEEPER FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD
HELP BOOST INSTABILITY VALUES CLOSER TOWARDS 2500 J/KG. WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHING EASTWARD...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES OF AROUND 50 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
ASSUMING ENOUGH HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTWARD MIXING
DRYLINE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME
THAT THE BETTER THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
WHILE LCL HEIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES...WILL BE
LOWER COMPARED TO SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AS A RESULT...WILL MENTION A LOW TORNADO RISK
ON MONDAY GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. DETAILS ON THE CONVECTIVE MODE/HAZARDS WILL
BE REFINED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL OUTPUT IS EXAMINED.
FOR TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT WILL SLIDE
TOWARDS THE EAST BEFORE GRADUALLY STALLING OUT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH. WHILE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AS
IMPLIED BY HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREADS THE AREA...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
ASCENT ALONG THE TRAILING BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE...WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THESE WINDS SHOULD FOSTER GOOD COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND
WILL SEND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. LOW
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NORTH AND
WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LIFT BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...IT APPEARS THAT A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE NORTH AND COLLIDING WITH
THIS BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES MAY
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS REMAINS ZONAL.
BAIN
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1158 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS MOVING UP BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT TAF ISSUANCE
TIME WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 15 KNOTS BY 16Z SATURDAY AS A LEE
SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES...THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY MOVE INTO WACO 07-09Z
SUNDAY AND INTO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES 08-10Z SUNDAY.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 82 65 80 66 82 / 0 5 30 50 60
WACO 82 66 81 67 84 / 0 10 30 40 60
PARIS 81 61 79 64 80 / 0 5 30 40 60
DENTON 83 64 79 66 82 / 0 5 30 50 60
MCKINNEY 82 63 80 66 81 / 0 5 30 50 60
DALLAS 83 66 81 66 82 / 0 5 30 50 60
TERRELL 82 64 81 66 82 / 0 5 30 40 60
CORSICANA 83 64 80 67 82 / 0 5 20 40 60
TEMPLE 82 65 81 68 85 / 5 10 30 40 50
MINERAL WELLS 82 64 82 65 87 / 5 10 30 50 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/15
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
432 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Southwest flow aloft will remain over the area the next 24 hours
ahead of a deep upper low over the southwest states. The dryline
will remain west of the area this afternoon and evening, extending
from the panhandle, southwest across the Permian Basin and into
southwest Texas. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the vicinity of the dryline by peak heating,
with this activity making a run for our western counties by late
afternoon and early evening. Latest HRRR has convection entering far
western portions of the Big Country, Concho Valley and northern
Edwards Plateau after 22Z. Convection should weaken with the loss of
daytime heating but could see activity linger into the mid to late
evening hours as it moves northeast across mainly the western half
of the forecast area. A few strong or isolated severe storms will be
possible initially, with large hail and damaging winds possible
through early evening generally west of a Haskell, Sterling City to
Ozona line.
Breezy south to southeast winds will occur again today, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s. For the overnight
period, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with lows in the
middle 60s.
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
The upper low developing over the southwest United States Sunday,
will bring increasing low level moisture and instability to the
region. There is slight risk for severe weather is Sunday
afternoon and evening as storms develop off a dryline from Iraan
to Sterling City to Sweetwater, then move east. The main severe
potential is across the Big Country, along and north of I-20,
however, isolated severe thunderstorms will also be possible
farther south. The main threats are large hail and damaging winds.
A few thunderstorms will remain possible Monday in extreme
eastern sections of West Central Texas as a surface trough moves
east bringing in dry southwest winds. Highs in the upper 80s are
expected Monday, with lower 90s Tuesday, with dry air and full
sun.
Moisture returns Tuesday night, with a weak cold front Wednesday
night. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night, with the best chance along and east
of a Sonora to Brownwood line. Isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible through the end of the week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 84 65 86 63 / 10 20 30 50
San Angelo 86 66 87 63 / 20 20 30 50
Junction 85 65 84 67 / 10 20 30 40
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
313 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
A COLD FRONT WAS WORKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS OF 2 AM...THIS FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTH OF GREEN
BAY THROUGH LA CROSSE WI...TO OELWIEN IA. STILL SEEING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ALSO SEEING A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP FROM SD THROUGH SOUTHERN MN
INTO NORTHERN WI ALONG SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. INTERESTINGLY
ENOUGH...STARTING TO SEE SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT/STABLE AIR ACROSS EASTERN MN/WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS IS
ACTUALLY DUE TO SMOKE FROM WILDFIRE IN NORTHERN MN. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING STILL PRETTY WARM
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN NORTH CENTRAL WI BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...TO THE UPPER 60S/70 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST WI AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FOR TODAY...WILL SEE THE BULK OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT STILL MAY SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI THROUGH NOON AS SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUE OVER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME OF THAT
AFOREMENTIONED SMOKE AS WELL. MODEL WIND/DISPERSION LOOKS LIKE IT
KEEPS SMOKE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ALSO LOOKS LIKE
THIS SMOKE SHOULD MIX OUT BY 9-10AM AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT.
OTHERWISE...DRY/COOL NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OUT OF THE DAKOTAS/MN. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY
IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE.
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MOTHERS DAY
SUNDAY. LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR MOM WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER NOSES INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL/SURFACE LOW
PUSHING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
PLAN ON SOME ACTIVE WEATHER AND COOLER CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST//MOST FOCUSED IN THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME// AS
THAT CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY OPENS INTO A TROUGH AND LIFTS/MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEK LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
THE COLD FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE
THROUGH KRST BY 06Z AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER FOR KLSE. THE WINDS
WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THE 07.03Z RUN OF THE HRRR STILL TRIES TO RAPIDLY EXPAND
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER AND THEN
MOVE SOME OF THAT IN LATE TONIGHT. THE 07.02Z RUN OF CR-HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE MUCH BETTER IDEA OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY IN THAT REGION
AND WHILE ALSO EXPANDING THE COVERAGE...DROPS IT SOUTH OF BOTH
SITES OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER IS NOT ALL THAT ROBUST...FEEL THE CR-HRRR HAS A
BETTER SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP BOTH SITES DRY OVERNIGHT. HIGH VFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR
SKIES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...(FOR TODAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MN. WITH DAYTIME
MIXING...LOOK FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DIP INTO THE 20/S BOTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THANKFULLY WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN THOSE SEEN ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LITTLE BIT OF A FIRE
CONCERN EXISTS FOR THOSE AREAS NORTH OF I-94 THAT ARE NOT AS FAR
ALONG IN THE GREEN-UP PROCESS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1144 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
OK...WHO TURNED ON THE SWITCH FOR SUMMER? JUST A DOWNRIGHT HOT DAY
OUT THERE BY EARLY MAY STANDARDS...WITH DEEP MIXING INTO PRONOUNCED
THERMAL RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE/COLD FRONT
SENDING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE 80S AND EVEN
LOWER90. AS EXPECTED...DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT VERY WELL (EVEN
MORE THAN OUR AGGRESSIVE FORECAST)...COURTESY OF DEEP MIXING TO
AROUND 700MB AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HOLDING FIRM THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SPEAKING OF THAT FRONT...THE BIG
QUESTION REMAINS COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIPITATION AS THAT BOUNDARY
DROPS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AS OF 2 PM...NOT
SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION ONGOING WITH THE FRONT BUT DO
SEE SOME HINTS OF BUBBLING ACCAS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES
SPIKING TO AROUND 500 J/KG IN A VERY NARROW MOISTURE AXIS JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THAT NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA ROUGHLY IN THE 01Z-10Z TIME FRAME PER NEAR TERM GUIDANCE/
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WITH CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 800 TO MAYBE 1000
J/KG POSSIBLE IF (THAT`S A BIG IF) WE CAN POOL SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...THOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL WANE WITH TIME AS WE PUSH DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF AN UPPER SUPPORT WITH ALL FORCING FROM A SHORTWAVE
PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT MODEST LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE WON`T HURT. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE CURRENT
AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA CATCHES UP TO THE BOUNDARY TO DRIVE AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY
HIGHER INSTABILITY THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL IN ALL...PLAN TO KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING AND FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT IN LINE WITH CURRENT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS
WHICH SUGGEST A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING JUST ON OUR DOORSTEP...
BUT WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY SHOCKED IF NOT A LOT ENDS UP HAPPENING GIVEN
JUST HOW DRY THINGS ARE OUT THERE. STRONGLY INVERTED-V AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNDRAFT CAPE PUSHING 1000 J/KG ARGUES FOR SOME GUSTY
WIND POTENTIAL NEAR ANY CONVECTION...AND PERHAPS EVEN A DRY
LIGHTNING THREAT GIVEN CLOUD BASES AT OR ABOVE 9KFT AND EXTREME
DRYNESS BELOW THAT. A VERY MILD EVENING/FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT IN
STORE BEFORE TEMPS SLOWLY TAKE A DIP BACK THROUGH THE MORE
COMFORTABLE 50S THROUGH SUNRISE.
LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY INTO
NORTHEAST IA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI WILL END BY 10 AM OR SO...WITH
NOTABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVING THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING TAKES HOLD AND WINDS HOLD FROM THE NORTH. DEEPER MIXING INTO
INCREASED DRYING ALOFT SHOULD DELIVER SOME VERY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND...AS RAIN CHANCES BECOME
RELEGATED TO CENTRAL IOWA ALONG A TIGHTER FRONTOGENETIC AXIS.
OVERALL...LOOKING LIKE AN AWESOME WEATHER WEEKEND FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
THE NEW WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BRING A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME BACK
TO THE AREA...AS CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
GRADUALLY OPENS UP WHILE LIFTING TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY TUESDAY. THAT SETUP WILL LIFT BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A
WARM FRONT BACK NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA WITH TIME...WITH AN UPTICK IN
DEEPER MOISTURE AND VARIOUS BOUTS OF BETTER FORCING LIKELY
DELIVERING ROUNDS OF RAINFALL INTO MIDWEEK. STILL SOME QUESTION
ABOUT JUST WHEN PRECIPITATION MIGHT ARRIVE...WITH INITIAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION/LIFT GOING INTO SATURATION OF A QUITE DRY
AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. PER RECENT TRENDS...IT
WOULD APPEAR THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND...WITH SOME CHANCE FOR
THUNDER AT TIMES PENDING DEGREE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. CAN
ENVISION THE BETTER THUNDER THREAT BISECTING THE CWA SOUTH TO
NORTH WITH NORTHERN AREAS WELL REMOVED FROM THE WARM
FRONT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT REMAINS ON THE
LOWER SIDE. SPEAKING OF LOWER CONFIDENCE...TEMPS IN THIS SETUP FOR
EARLY/MID WEEK ARE TRICKY AS ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUDS COULD
EASILY HOLD READINGS DOWN QUITE A BIT. FOR NOW...A CONSENSUS BLEND
ARGUES FOR SEASONABLE READINGS INTO THE 60S EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
THE COLD FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE
THROUGH KRST BY 06Z AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER FOR KLSE. THE WINDS
WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THE 07.03Z RUN OF THE HRRR STILL TRIES TO RAPIDLY EXPAND
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER AND THEN
MOVE SOME OF THAT IN LATE TONIGHT. THE 07.02Z RUN OF CR-HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE MUCH BETTER IDEA OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY IN THAT REGION
AND WHILE ALSO EXPANDING THE COVERAGE...DROPS IT SOUTH OF BOTH
SITES OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER IS NOT ALL THAT ROBUST...FEEL THE CR-HRRR HAS A
BETTER SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP BOTH SITES DRY OVERNIGHT. HIGH VFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR
SKIES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH DEEP MIXING SENDING RH VALUES DOWN THROUGH THE 15-20
PERCENT RANGE AND TEMPERATURES SOARING THROUGH THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL ACCELERATE IN THE WAKE OF A
PASSING COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL EXPECT WE MAY SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THAT FRONT
PASSES...BUT WITH VERY HIGH CLOUD BASES AND LOTS OF DRY AIR
BELOW...DO HAVE SOME CONCERN BOTH WITH THE THREAT FOR SOME DRY
LIGHTNING AS WELL AS INCREASED GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY SHOWERS AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS OUT OF A 10KFT CLOUD BASE. COOLER CONDITIONS
BUT CONTINUED LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH WINDS MUCH LIGHTER THAN THOSE NOTED TODAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...LAWRENCE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1143 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 828 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
A COUPLE OF QUICK UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. THE FIRST
WAS TO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY
INCLUDING THE CITY OF CHEYENNE. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE TIME UNTIL
NOON AS LATEST LOCAL WRF SUGGEST THAT IT PERSISTS. WOULD NOT BE AT
ALL SURPRISED IF IT EVEN CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON OVR THE
SUMMIT. WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THAT LATER. HAVE ALSO ADDED
CONVERSE COUNTY INTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LATER TODAY. DEER
CREEK HAS SEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT RISES AND WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN EXPECTED LATER TODAY ALONG WITH SOME PROBLEMS SEEN OVER THE
COUNTY LINE INTO NATRONA COUNTY...FELT PRUDENT TO ADD INTO THE
PRODUCT. OTHERWISE...FOCUS AND ATTENTION CONTINUES TOWARDS THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER TODAY ALONG WITH THE FLOOD POTENTIAL. THE
SYNOPTIC SETUP IS VERY REMNISCENT OF MAY 22 2008...WHICH WAS THE
WINDSOR CO TO LARAMIE TORNADO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
CLOSELY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EPISODE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. A VERY LARGE SCALE
OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SLOW TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE VIGOROUS LOW
WHICH WAS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME FRIDAY IS NOT MAKING
A WHOLE LOT OF PROGRESS...BUT IT HAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS NV. EFFECTS ARE ALREADY BEING FELT
WITH MOIST AND INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT NOW WELL-ESTABLISHED
OVER EASTERN CO/WY. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDED
ACROSS NORTHEAST CO...JUST SOUTH OF THE WY STATE LINE. A COMPLICATED
WEATHER SCENARIO OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH MULTIPLE HIGH-IMPACT
HAZARDS EXPECTED.
FIRST OFF...EXTREMELY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERSTATE 80
SUMMIT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG/MOIST UPSLOPING ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND A TEMPORARY LULL IN CONVECTION PREVENTING LOW-LEVEL MIXING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL WRF...SHOW VERY
LOW VISIBILITIES THROUGH AT LEAST 15-18Z. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THIS WILL SPREAD INTO CYS LATER THIS AM...BASED ON EXCELLENT LOW-LVL
SATURATION SEEN ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADZY OVER
THE SUMMIT THROUGH 15Z...BUT WE ARE MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE TEMPORAL
AND SPATIAL EXPANSION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NUMEROUS WYDOT WEBCAM
IMAGES SHOW VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO...SO NO DOUBT THAT TRAVEL WILL BE
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS THROUGH THE EARLY AM HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF CHEYENNE.
NEXT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY. LARGE
SCALE DYNAMICS ARE VERY FAVORABLE WITH A 110 KNOT H25 JET OVER SOUTH
EAST CO AND AN IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN WY BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG/PERSISTENT EASTERLY UPSLOPE IN
THE LOW-LEVELS FURTHER SUPPORTS THIS NOTION. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CYS
TO WHEATLAND...WITH THE GREATEST RISK ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...SO THIS WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES. STILL...SFC
DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 50 F WHICH MAY SUPPORT CAPES UP TO
1500 J/KG AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH EXCELLENT VEERING/INCREASING WINDS PROGGED IN THE
SFC TO 500 MB LAYER. SOUTHERLY 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS AT/ABOVE
50 KTS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT
DISCRETE SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. WE MAY ALSO
SEE A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THESE SHEAR PROFILES...BUT THE BEST CHANCE
SHOULD BE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SLGT RISK
FROM SPC WITH THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK. WE AGREE WITH THE 5 PERCENT TORNADO
PROB ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80.
FLASH FLOODING IS STILL A MAJOR CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT. THE PATTERN
IS FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING CONVECTION AND STORMS TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD
BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. AFTER 00Z...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND DEEP SATURATION. PWATS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE CLIMO AS WELL...AROUND 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IT HIGHLIGHTS THE PRIMARY THREAT
AREAS VERY WELL. NO NEED TO EXPAND IT INTO CONVERSE OR NIOBRARA WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN A SOUTHERN LOW TRACK. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION RATES DURING THE EVENING. THIS IS WHEN THE
OVERALL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE STRONGEST. MODEL CONSENSUS OF QPF IN
THE 00Z TO 12Z SUN TIME FRAME IS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF LARAMIE
COUNTY. FINALLY...OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES...WBZ HEIGHTS ARE
SUGGESTING A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET BY 00Z SUN
WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OCCURRING THEREAFTER. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN 6-12 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT...SO A WINTER WEATHER ADZY
WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AT SOME POINT TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
WET AND COOL PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY DRIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF MONTANA AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DAILY CONVECTION. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OUT TO THE EAST WITH A DRIER MORE SUBSIDENT TYPE AIRMASS
COMING IN FROM THE WEST...DRYING US OUT A BIT MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY WE SEE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS A 120 KT
JETMAX DRIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS THE LARAMIE RANGE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OUT
WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OUT EAST ONTO THE PLAINS GOING INTO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY)
SOME LINGERING FOG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED THROUGH 20Z. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP BY THIS
EVENING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCDR...WHICH MAY
BE LATER THIS EVENING AND HAVE LIGHTER RAINFALL. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 00Z WITH NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AND WIDESPREAD MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. MAY EVEN
BE SOME HAIL NEAR KCYS...KLAR...AND KSNY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH
STRONG ERRATIC WINDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
WET WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FOR THE NEAR TERM...NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
RIVER FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED OVERNIGHT FOR MITCHELL NEBRASKA.
RELEASES UPSTREAM ON THE LARAMIE ALONG WITH RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL
LAST 24 HOURS IN ADDITION TO ANTICIPATED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL NEXT
FEW DAYS HAS RESULTED IN RISES ON THE NORTH PLATTE. CREST LEVELS
WERE TWEAKED THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE LOWER NORTH PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY DUE TO THE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL BETWEEN DOUGLAS
AND CASPER YESTERDAY. ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL
CONVERSE COUNTY THIS MORNING WITH FLASH FLOODING REPORTED ALONG
ESTERBROOK AND COLD SPRINGS ROADS. ALSO ANTICIPATING GRADUAL RISES
ALONG THE LARAMIE RIVER AT LARAMIE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS EPECTED TODAY...POSSIBLY WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION
SNOWMELT. WE DEFINITELY WANT TO STAY CLOSELY TUNED INTO LATER TRENDS
AS WE GO FORWARD AS WE STILL HAVE SOME SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF GETTING
INTO THE BASIN.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING IN AREAS OF GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TODAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ116>118.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
WYZ101-103-106>108-115>119.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CAH
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...JG
HYDROLOGY...TJT/JG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
828 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 828 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
A COUPLE OF QUICK UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. THE FIRST
WAS TO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY
INCLUDING THE CITY OF CHEYENNE. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE TIME UNTIL
NOON AS LATEST LOCAL WRF SUGGEST THAT IT PERSISTS. WOULD NOT BE AT
ALL SURPRISED IF IT EVEN CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON OVR THE
SUMMIT. WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THAT LATER. HAVE ALSO ADDED
CONVERSE COUNTY INTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LATER TODAY. DEER
CREEK HAS SEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT RISES AND WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN EXPECTED LATER TODAY ALONG WITH SOME PROBLEMS SEEN OVER THE
COUTY LINE INTO NATRONA COUNTY...FELT PRUDENT TO ADD INTO THE
PRODUCT. OTHERWISE...FOCUS AND ATTENTION CONTINUES TOWARDS THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER TODAY ALONG WITH THE FLOOD POTENTIAL. THE
SYNOPTIC SETUP IS VERY REMISCENT OF MAY 22 2008...WHICH WAS THE
WINDSOR CO TO LARAMIE TORNADO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
CLOSELY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EPISODE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. A VERY LARGE SCALE
OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SLOW TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE VIGOROUS LOW
WHICH WAS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME FRIDAY IS NOT MAKING
A WHOLE LOT OF PROGRESS...BUT IT HAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS NV. EFFECTS ARE ALREADY BEING FELT
WITH MOIST AND INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT NOW WELL-ESTABLISHED
OVER EASTERN CO/WY. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDED
ACROSS NORTHEAST CO...JUST SOUTH OF THE WY STATE LINE. A COMPLICATED
WEATHER SCENARIO OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH MULTIPLE HIGH-IMPACT
HAZARDS EXPECTED.
FIRST OFF...EXTREMELY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERSTATE 80
SUMMIT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG/MOIST UPSLOPING ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND A TEMPORARY LULL IN CONVECTION PREVENTING LOW-LEVEL MIXING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL WRF...SHOW VERY
LOW VISIBILITIES THROUGH AT LEAST 15-18Z. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THIS WILL SPREAD INTO CYS LATER THIS AM...BASED ON EXCELLENT LOW-LVL
SATURATION SEEN ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADZY OVER
THE SUMMIT THROUGH 15Z...BUT WE ARE MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE TEMPORAL
AND SPATIAL EXPANSION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NUMEROUS WYDOT WEBCAM
IMAGES SHOW VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO...SO NO DOUBT THAT TRAVEL WILL BE
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS THROUGH THE EARLY AM HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF CHEYENNE.
NEXT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY. LARGE
SCALE DYNAMICS ARE VERY FAVORABLE WITH A 110 KNOT H25 JET OVER SOUTH
EAST CO AND AN IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN WY BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG/PERSISTENT EASTERLY UPSLOPE IN
THE LOW-LEVELS FURTHER SUPPORTS THIS NOTION. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CYS
TO WHEATLAND...WITH THE GREATEST RISK ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...SO THIS WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES. STILL...SFC
DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 50 F WHICH MAY SUPPORT CAPES UP TO
1500 J/KG AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH EXCELLENT VEERING/INCREASING WINDS PROGGED IN THE
SFC TO 500 MB LAYER. SOUTHERLY 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS AT/ABOVE
50 KTS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT
DISCRETE SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. WE MAY ALSO
SEE A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THESE SHEAR PROFILES...BUT THE BEST CHANCE
SHOULD BE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SLGT RISK
FROM SPC WITH THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK. WE AGREE WITH THE 5 PERCENT TORNADO
PROB ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80.
FLASH FLOODING IS STILL A MAJOR CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT. THE PATTERN
IS FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING CONVECTION AND STORMS TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD
BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. AFTER 00Z...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND DEEP SATURATION. PWATS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE CLIMO AS WELL...AROUND 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IT HIGHLIGHTS THE PRIMARY THREAT
AREAS VERY WELL. NO NEED TO EXPAND IT INTO CONVERSE OR NIOBRARA WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN A SOUTHERN LOW TRACK. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION RATES DURING THE EVENING. THIS IS WHEN THE
OVERALL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE STRONGEST. MODEL CONSENSUS OF QPF IN
THE 00Z TO 12Z SUN TIME FRAME IS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF LARAMIE
COUNTY. FINALLY...OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES...WBZ HEIGHTS ARE
SUGGESTING A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET BY 00Z SUN
WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OCCURRING THEREAFTER. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN 6-12 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT...SO A WINTER WEATHER ADZY
WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AT SOME POINT TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
WET AND COOL PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY DRIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF MONTANA AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DAILY CONVECTION. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OUT TO THE EAST WITH A DRIER MORE SUBSIDENT TYPE AIRMASS
COMING IN FROM THE WEST...DRYING US OUT A BIT MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY WE SEE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS A 120 KT
JETMAX DRIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS THE LARAMIE RANGE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OUT
WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OUT EAST ONTO THE PLAINS GOING INTO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED FARTHER NORTH AND HAVE
WEAKENED AS EXPECTED. IN THEIR WAKE LOWER CEILINGS AND SLOWLY
DROPPING VISIBILITIES EXPECTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH MORNING.
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS LARAMIE AND
CHEYENNE SEEING THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED 10-15Z. LARAMIE WITH LIGHTER WINDS ALREADY AT IFR
CONDITIONS HOWEVER WINDS STILL UP AT CHEYENNE KEEPING THE FOG
MIXED UP INTO LOW STRATUS DECK. EXPECT STRATUS FARTHER EAST INTO
THE SCOTTSBLUFF...ALLIANCE AND CHADRON AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. RAWLINS IS ALSO PROJECTED IN
MOST GUIDANCE TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FOR A PERIOD
THIS MORNING. BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN BY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALL SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
WET WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FOR THE NEAR TERM...NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
RIVER FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED OVERNIGHT FOR MITCHELL NEBRASKA.
RELEASES UPSTREAM ON THE LARAMIE ALONG WITH RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL
LAST 24 HOURS IN ADDITION TO ANTICIPATED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL NEXT
FEW DAYS HAS RESULTED IN RISES ON THE NORTH PLATTE...WITH RISES TO
ACTION STAGE (BELOW FLOOD STAGE) MOST SITES ALONG THE NORTH
PLATTE EASTWARD WITH EXCEPTION OF MITCHELL. ALSO ANTICIPATING
GRADUAL RISES ALONG THE LARAMIE RIVER AT LARAMIE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RIGHT NOW TO ACTION STAGE AT LARAMIE AND FORT LARAMIE...BUT
WE DEFINITELY WANT TO STAY CLOSELY TUNED INTO LATER TRENDS AS WE
GO FORWARD AS WE STILL HAVE SOME SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF GETTING INTO
THE BASIN. FARTHER WEST ALONG THE LITTLE SNAKE RIVER WE CAN SEE
WELL DEFINED DIURNAL SNOWMELT INCREASES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS AT
BAGGS...DIXON AND SAVERY. RIGHT NOW OUR BEST PROJECTION HAS THE
LITTLE SNAKE RISING TO ACTION STAGE AT DIXON BEFORE SEEING A SLOW
FALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE TOO WE WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITOR TRENDS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
WHERE PREVIOUSLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING IN THE ZONE OF
EXPECTED GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS TODAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ116>118.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
WYZ101-103-106>108-115>119.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CAH
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...JG
HYDROLOGY...JG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
412 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EPISODE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. A VERY LARGE SCALE
OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SLOW TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE VIGOROUS LOW
WHICH WAS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME FRIDAY IS NOT MAKING
A WHOLE LOT OF PROGRESS...BUT IT HAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS NV. EFFECTS ARE ALREADY BEING FELT
WITH MOIST AND INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT NOW WELL-ESTABLISHED
OVER EASTERN CO/WY. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDED
ACROSS NORTHEAST CO...JUST SOUTH OF THE WY STATE LINE. A COMPLICATED
WEATHER SCENARIO OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH MULTIPLE HIGH-IMPACT
HAZARDS EXPECTED.
FIRST OFF...EXTREMELY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERSTATE 80
SUMMIT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG/MOIST UPSLOPING ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND A TEMPORARY LULL IN CONVECTION PREVENTING LOW-LEVEL MIXING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL WRF...SHOW VERY
LOW VISIBILITIES THROUGH AT LEAST 15-18Z. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THIS WILL SPREAD INTO CYS LATER THIS AM...BASED ON EXCELLENT LOW-LVL
SATURATION SEEN ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADZY OVER
THE SUMMIT THROUGH 15Z...BUT WE ARE MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE TEMPORAL
AND SPATIAL EXPANSION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NUMEROUS WYDOT WEBCAM
IMAGES SHOW VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO...SO NO DOUBT THAT TRAVEL WILL BE
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS THROUGH THE EARLY AM HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF CHEYENNE.
NEXT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY. LARGE
SCALE DYNAMICS ARE VERY FAVORABLE WITH A 110 KNOT H25 JET OVER SOUTH
EAST CO AND AN IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN WY BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG/PERSISTENT EASTERLY UPSLOPE IN
THE LOW-LEVELS FURTHER SUPPORTS THIS NOTION. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CYS
TO WHEATLAND...WITH THE GREATEST RISK ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...SO THIS WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES. STILL...SFC
DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 50 F WHICH MAY SUPPORT CAPES UP TO
1500 J/KG AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH EXCELLENT VEERING/INCREASING WINDS PROGGED IN THE
SFC TO 500 MB LAYER. SOUTHERLY 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS AT/ABOVE
50 KTS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT
DISCRETE SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. WE MAY ALSO
SEE A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THESE SHEAR PROFILES...BUT THE BEST CHANCE
SHOULD BE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SLGT RISK
FROM SPC WITH THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK. WE AGREE WITH THE 5 PERCENT TORNADO
PROB ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80.
FLASH FLOODING IS STILL A MAJOR CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT. THE PATTERN
IS FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING CONVECTION AND STORMS TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD
BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. AFTER 00Z...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND DEEP SATURATION. PWATS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE CLIMO AS WELL...AROUND 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IT HIGHLIGHTS THE PRIMARY THREAT
AREAS VERY WELL. NO NEED TO EXPAND IT INTO CONVERSE OR NIOBRARA WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN A SOUTHERN LOW TRACK. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION RATES DURING THE EVENING. THIS IS WHEN THE
OVERALL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE STRONGEST. MODEL CONSENSUS OF QPF IN
THE 00Z TO 12Z SUN TIME FRAME IS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF LARAMIE
COUNTY. FINALLY...OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES...WBZ HEIGHTS ARE
SUGGESTING A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET BY 00Z SUN
WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OCCURRING THEREAFTER. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN 6-12 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT...SO A WINTER WEATHER ADZY
WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AT SOME POINT TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
WET AND COOL PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY DRIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF MONTANA AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DAILY CONVECTION. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OUT TO THE EAST WITH A DRIER MORE SUBSIDENT TYPE AIRMASS
COMING IN FROM THE WEST...DRYING US OUT A BIT MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY WE SEE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS A 120 KT
JETMAX DRIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS THE LARAMIE RANGE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OUT
WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OUT EAST ONTO THE PLAINS GOING INTO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED FARTHER NORTH AND HAVE
WEAKENED AS EXPECTED. IN THEIR WAKE LOWER CEILINGS AND SLOWLY
DROPPING VISIBILITIES EXPECTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH MORNING.
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS LARAMIE AND
CHEYENNE SEEING THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED 10-15Z. LARAMIE WITH LIGHTER WINDS ALREADY AT IFR
CONDITIONS HOWEVER WINDS STILL UP AT CHEYENNE KEEPING THE FOG
MIXED UP INTO LOW STRATUS DECK. EXPECT STRATUS FARTHER EAST INTO
THE SCOTTSBLUFF...ALLIANCE AND CHADRON AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. RAWLINS IS ALSO PROJECTED IN
MOST GUIDANCE TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FOR A PERIOD
THIS MORNING. BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN BY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALL SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
WET WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FOR THE NEAR TERM...NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
RIVER FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED OVERNIGHT FOR MITCHELL NEBRASKA.
RELEASES UPSTREAM ON THE LARAMIE ALONG WITH RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL
LAST 24 HOURS IN ADDITION TO ANTICIPATED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL NEXT
FEW DAYS HAS RESULTED IN RISES ON THE NORTH PLATTE...WITH RISES TO
ACTION STAGE (BELOW FLOOD STAGE) MOST SITES ALONG THE NORTH
PLATTE EASTWARD WITH EXCEPTION OF MITCHELL. ALSO ANTICIPATING
GRADUAL RISES ALONG THE LARAMIE RIVER AT LARAMIE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RIGHT NOW TO ACTION STAGE AT LARAMIE AND FORT LARAMIE...BUT
WE DEFINITELY WANT TO STAY CLOSELY TUNED INTO LATER TRENDS AS WE
GO FORWARD AS WE STILL HAVE SOME SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF GETTING INTO
THE BASIN. FARTHER WEST ALONG THE LITTLE SNAKE RIVER WE CAN SEE
WELL DEFINED DIURNAL SNOWMELT INCREASES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS AT
BAGGS...DIXON AND SAVERY. RIGHT NOW OUR BEST PROJECTION HAS THE
LITTLE SNAKE RISING TO ACTION STAGE AT DIXON BEFORE SEEING A SLOW
FALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE TOO WE WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITOR TRENDS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
WHERE PREVIOUSLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING IN THE ZONE OF
EXPECTED GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS TODAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
WYZ103-106>108-115>119.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...JG
HYDROLOGY...JG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1141 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
...SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TOMORROW...
CURRENTLY...WIDELY SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER
THE AREA...AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
H5 CENTER IS OVER ERN WY...BUT SRN EXTENT OF THE LOW EXTENDS SWRD
INTO NM...AND A COUPLE DISTURBANCES IN THIS BROADER CIRCULATION WILL
MOVE THROUGH SE CO THROUGH MONDAY. STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN PRETTY
WEAK...AND DEW POINTS NR THE KS BORDER HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND THE
4O DEGREE MARK...SO SVR THREAT ATTM LOOKS LIMITED. WILL STILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO OVER THE SERN PLAINS...BUT THE
PROBABILITY LOOKS PRETTY LOW.
THIS FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVE. THE HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE BEEN A
BIT TOO SPARSE WITH COVERAGE OVERALL...SO HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER
RES NAM RUNS FOR POP COVERAGE IN THE SHORT TERM. STILL DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH QPF OVERALL. NEXT WAVE OF ACTIVITY WILL COME
LATER TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE IMPACT FROM
THIS WAVE SHOULD BE MAINLY WEST OF I-25...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS. MTS COULD SEE ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH MON
MORNING...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN
HIGH...GENERALLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. KCPW AND THE SAN JUANS LOOK TO
BENEFIT THE MOST FROM SNOWFALL THROUGH TOMORROW.
TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE
PLAINS...WHILE THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS MAY STAY IN THE 30S-40S ONCE
AGAIN DUE TO WIDESPREAD MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PRECIP. STORM
COVERAGE E OF THE MTS NOT LOOKING TERRIBLY GREAT TOMORROW...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR TS MON AFTERNOON...SO WILL
LEAVE VERY LOW POPS...AROUND 10 PERCENT...OVER THE ERN PLAINS FOR
NOW. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
LATE MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE IT LOOK GENERALLY DRY ACRS THE
FORECAST AREA...AHEAD OF A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE
WEATHER LATER TUE. TUE AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WL BE TRACKING
FROM SERN MT INTO NWRN SD. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPR TROF THAT WL
MOVE INTO CO...WL BRING PCPN TO THE CONTDVD BY LATE TUE
MORNING...THEN SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN MTNS AS WELL TUE
AFTERNOON. TOWARD TUE EVENING SOME ISOLD TO SCT PCPN SHOULD ALSO
SPREAD EAST OVER THE SERN CO PLAINS. MOST LOCATIONS ON TUE SHOULD
SEE TEMPS THAT ARE AROUND AVERAGE.
TUE NIGHT A FRONT WL DROP S THRU THE SERN PLAINS AS THE UPR TROF
MOVES ACRS CO. IT MAY BE UNSETTLED ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO
LINGER ACRS THE CENTRAL AND ERN MTNS AND THE SERN PLAINS...HOWEVER
BY WED MORNING MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS DRY. WED AFTERNOON A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA AND COULD HELP TRIGGER
SOME ISOLD PCPN ACRS THE MTNS AND ERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ON WED WL
BE COOLER AND WL BE BELOW AVERAGE.
THU LOOKS LIKE A DRIER DAY ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ISOLD PCPN MAINLY OVR THE MTNS AREA. TEMPS WL BE WARMER ON
THU AND SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR
THE AREA FOR FRI...WITH TEMPS WARMING A LITTLE MORE. FOR SAT AND
SUN THE UPR RIDGE GETS FLATTENED OVR THE AREA WITH SOME MSTR IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING OVR THE AREA ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MSTR OVR EASTERN AREAS AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS. WL PROBABLY SEE ISOLD TO SCT PCPN ACRS THE MTN AND PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES...CAPABLE OF CREATING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1247 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
300 PM...CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN MO WILL CONTINUE
LIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT LIKELY ARRIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
CWA LATE THIS EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THERE HAS APPEARED TO BE A
SHARP CUT OFF TO THIS PRECIP THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE HOW FAR
NORTH THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND BY MORNING. DIDN/T MAKE MANY CHANGES
WITH LIKELY POPS EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY RFD/JOT/RZL. STILL APPEARS
THERE MAY BE A LULL FROM MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE WARM FRONT BEGINS LIFTING NORTH ACCOMPANIED BY
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE. BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND DURATION
OF ANY LULL AND FOR THAT REASON MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS UNTIL
LATER AFTERNOON WHEN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MONDAY EVENING WITH A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA FOR DAY2. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
NO CHANGE TO PWATS IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. MODEL QPF SHOWS THE
HEAVIEST AXIS FROM WEST/NORTHWEST IL BACK INTO PARTS OF IOWA.
TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY END UP SIMILAR TO MONDAY...DIFFICULT
TO SEE MUCH WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
SO PERHAPS A LULL MIDDAY BUT WITH SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON NOW THAT THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPS MAY QUICKLY DROP THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLEAR SKIES...BUT
SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SPREAD NORTH. WITH THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...TEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S WITH MAV SUGGESTING LOW/MID 50S...THUS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HIGHS MONDAY. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S
TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS AT THE LAKE WITH EASTERLY FLOW. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
300 PM...ANY ACTIVITY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS TO END
WITH POSSIBLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. IF
WEDNESDAY PANS OUT DRY WITH SOME PARTIAL SUN...IT WILL LIKELY BE
QUITE WARM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT/LOW. GUIDANCE
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE LAKE WITH EITHER
A LAKE BREEZE OR AN EASTERLY GRADIENT DEVELOPING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THEN POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DRY PERIOD DOES NOW APPEAR TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THURSDAY POSSIBLY BECOMING BREEZY/WINDY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ECMWF/GFS HAVE
BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS AND NOW SHOWING -2C TO -4C
AT 850MB BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH VERY SLOWLY MODERATES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE IMPORTANT BUT LOWS
IN AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 30S SEEM POSSIBLE AND THIS COULD RESULT
IN SOME FROST. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR AVIATION WILL BE ON THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP AND
GUSTY EAST WINDS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK
PRESENTLY...HOWEVER CLOSER TO DAYBREAK THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 100-120 DEG WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-12KT AND GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-24KT BY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME CLOUDS
WILL STEADILY THICKEN AND LOWER...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN VFR CONDS
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIP TIMING CONTINUES TO SLOW
AS THE EAST WINDS WILL STEADILY USHER IN DRY AIR...SO HAVE PUSHED
BACK THE TIMING OF PRECIP UNTIL MIDDAY BUT EXPECT THE BETTER
COVERAGE FOR PRECIP TO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
BETWEEN 21-23Z CIGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER TOWARDS IFR CONDS AS THE
BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES...INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP. IN
ADDITION SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
PRECIP INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE AT THIS TIME HELD OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER...BUT THAT MAY INDEED NEED TO BE ADDED. CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER TOWARDS IFR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH LIKELY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
242 PM CDT
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES
EASTWARD. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHILE A SERIES OF LOWS SLOWLY DRIFT EAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE WEEK. THESE
LOWS MAY MERGE MIDWEEK BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...APPROACHING 25/30 KT MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY LATE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM
NORTHERN CANADA.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1159 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 838 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016
Showers associated with a frontal boundary across southern
Illinois continue to spread northeastward across central IL this
evening. Although the surface boundary is progged to move very
little overnight...a shortwave aloft will produce enough lift and
warm advection aloft for these showers to continue to spread
northeastward...reaching northwards of I-74 by midnight. Initially
there will be little lightning with these showers, but
observations show lightning across Missouri from KC-Quincy and
some of this activity could spread across central IL late in the
evening and overnight. Lows expected in the mid 50s despite
following a cooler day as thickening cloud cover won`t allow much
cooling to take place. Southeast winds around 10 mph will continue
through the night through central IL which will remain north of
the warm front. South of I-70, winds may switch to southerly if
the front moves that far by morning. Only minor updates needed
this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a stationary frontal boundary
extending from northeast Kansas to southern Kentucky. As a short
wave trough evident on latest water vapor imagery over
Oklahoma/Kansas lifts northward, it will give the front a push
northward tonight as well. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have
already developed along the front in association with the
approaching wave across eastern Kansas into central/western
Missouri...and this activity is expected to develop/spread
northeastward into central Illinois this evening. With a deeper
fetch of Gulf of Mexico moisture now apparent on water vapor imagery
and surface dewpoints across the Plains in the lower to middle 60s,
there will be adequate moisture available for precip development
tonight. The main difference between the models is how quickly the
rain arrives. The HRRR has been consistently faster than the other
models, with showers arriving as far north as the I-74 corridor as
early as 03-04z. Meanwhile, the 12z NAM had been a couple hours
slower, generally keeping the far northern CWA dry until around
midnight. The 18z run of the NAM has quickened the process and now
looks very similar to the HRRR. As a result, will be adjusting PoPs
to carry likely/categorical everywhere north of the I-70 corridor by
mid to late evening. The rain will lift northward through the night
and will likely be mainly along/north of I-74 by early Monday
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016
The northward progression of a warm front will highlight the
day on Monday, and signal increasing temps and dewpoints for the
first half of the week, along with chances for strong storms.
Monday morning will see a band of ongoing convection lifting north
across central Illinois ahead of the front, with precip generally
north of I-72 by sunrise. The mid-morning may see a break in the
rainfall for a majority of our forecast area. Storm chances will
increase from SW to NE late Monday morning and afternoon as an upper
level wave progresses eastward along the warm front. Our entire area
is included in a Marginal Risk (5%) of severe storms Monday
afternoon/eve. Instability params are pointing toward areas west
of Springfield to Peoria having higher instability values than our
eastern counties. MUCAPES of 1000-1400 J/kg could develop in the
west by afternoon if some sunshine develops during the break in
the rain Monday morning. Bulk shear values are marginal, in the
20-35kt range with the lower values in W IL and higher near
Indiana. Will keep likely PoPs Monday afternoon and categorical
PoPs Mon night as a strong upper level wave progresses across IL
into Tuesday morning. Storm chances will diminish by mid-morning
on Tuesday, but increase again Tues afternoon as a 500mb shortwave
lifts across central IL. MUCAPES on Tues afternoon look to climb
into the 2000-3000 J/kg range, with bulk shear of 30-35kt. The SPC
Marginal risk is currently south of I-72, which may get changed to
a Slight risk before Tuesday arrives if current instability trends
continue. We kept likely PoPs Tues afternoon, with large hail and
damaging winds possible with the strongest storms. Low level
helicity values appear supportive of rotating updrafts, especially
in east-central and southeast IL.
A NAM is advertising a break in the rain/storms for Tuesday night
and Wed morning, before the next wave of low pressure reaches IL Wed
afternoon. Will keep lower chance PoPs during that time to account
for possible scattered redevelopment along lingering boundaries.
Our area will remain in the warm sector Monday afternoon through
Wednesday, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s Monday
through Tuesday, then climbing into the mid to upper 60s on
Wednesday. That will help fuel another round of strong to severe
storms late Wed afternoon but primarily Wed night, as MUCAPES
possibly reach 3000-4500 J/kg across our forecast area, with the
highest instability in southeast IL. Bulk shear values in SE IL will
be marginal again, with 20-35kts indicated in the 12z NAM output. We
ramped up PoPs Wed night to likely over most of our counties, as a
cold front pushes from west to east, reaching just east of I-57 by
12z/7am Thursday.
Cooler and drier air will filter into Illinois behind that cold
front, bringing a break in the rain for Thur and Thursday night.
Highs will be in the low to mid 70s on Thurs, with highs on
Friday in the upper 60s N of I-74 and low 70s S of I-70. Rain
chances will increase Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front
arrives from the Northern Plains. There are differing solutions in
the extended models about the path of the surface low, but timing
still looks close for Fri aftn and Fri night rain.
Dry and much cooler conditions are projected for next weekend,
with highs only in the upper 50s to low 60s on Saturday, and
overnight lows in the lower 40s Saturday night. Highs on Sunday
look to climb a few degrees above Saturday, as southerly winds
develop ahead of the next rain producer for Sunday night into
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016
Ceilings are gradually lowering as scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms continue across most of central IL north of I-70.
Current trends indicate predominant ceilings should remain just
above MVFR thresholds primarily, with local lowering into MVFR
category. Visibilities showing more coverage in MVFR category. The
feature producing the current activity should move north of the
area by around 12Z with lighter and less predominant showers. Have
therefore improved conditions to VFR starting 10-12Z and dropped
predominant rain mention at that point. Increasing chances for
thunderstorms can be expected in the afternoon, continuing into
the evening with cigs and vsby worsening into MVFR category. Winds
generally SE 8-14 kts through the period. &&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED OVER THE
MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THESE STORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE
EAST ON AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT. THE VORT MAX LEADING TO THESE
STORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL
GRAVITY WAVES HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED ON RADAR THIS MORNING. THESE
GRAVITY WAVES AND MID LEVEL FORCING WILL LIKELY DICTATE WEATHER
THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SHORT WAVE SWINGING NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW
SHOULD CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS WOULD BE HIGH IF IT WASN`T FOR
THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.
CONVECTION LINGERING FROM MOTHERS DAY WAS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA. GUIDANCE...INCLUDING RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR TRY TO
PUSH THIS NORTH AND MISS OUR AREA. I`M HAVING A HARD TIME SEEING
THIS HAPPENING AS A WARM ADVECTION WING IS MOVING NORTH. MOISTURE
POOLING ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IA WOULD SUPPORT THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS TO MOVE EAST INSTEAD OF NORTHEAST. WHAT MY GUT
TELLS ME IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR AREA
THROUGH MID-MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS COULD BE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING INTO VERY EARLIER AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THIS WOULD
AFFECT THE FORECAST CONDITIONS LATER TODAY.
THINK ONE OF TWO THINGS IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. 1. DECAYING
CONVECTION WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN FORCING MOVING NORTH.
A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WOULD
BE LOW IN THIS SCENARIO. 2. THE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST DECAYS FASTER
THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING SO THAT MORE INSTABILITY CAN FORM. IF
THIS IS THE CASE...STRONGER STORMS AND EVEN SEVERE WEATHER COULD
BE POSSIBLE. A LOW END RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. AS FOR A TORNADO THREAT...WITH THE
WARM FRONT AND BACKED SFC WINDS...THINK THAT THERE IS A LOW END
CHANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. IF A TORNADO
WERE TO FORM IT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND LIKELY FROM A MULTICELL
STORM. I DO NOT HAVE A FIRM GUT FEELING ON EITHER OF THESE
SCENARIOS. THIS MEANS THAT WE NEED TO WATCH THIS MORNING PLAY OUT
BEFORE WE HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF THIS EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A COMMON THEME
WITH BOTH OF THESES SCENARIOS ARE THAT OFBS MAY BE PRESENT AFTER
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. OBVIOUSLY THESE COULD SERVE AS FOCI FOR
TRAINING OF STORMS AND POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF WE COULD BUILD SOME SBCAPE. ALL MODELS ARE
LOW ON SBCAPE...BUT WITH TONIGHTS CONVECTION ITS ANYONES GAME.
AS FOR THE RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
AREAS TODAY COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN BY 12Z TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME ITS HARD FOR ME TO NAIL DOWN AN AREA WHERE THIS MIGHT
OCCUR WITH SO MUCH OF TODAY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS THIS
MORNING. IF I HAD TO CHOOSE AN AREA...PROXIMITY TO THE SFC WARM
FRONT WOULD LIKELY DELINEATE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FLOODING
WOULD BE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. SUFFICE
IT TO SAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH
FORECAST PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN TO LIFT
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING DECREASING TRENDS
TO MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE MODULATED BY PRECIP AND CLOUDS... WITH THERMAL PARAMETERS
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE WIDESPREAD MID 70S UNDER MORE PROLONGED SOLAR
INSOLATION BUT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ANTICIPATE PTCLDY PERIODS AT
BEST AND SO OPTED WITH BLEND RANGING FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO MID 70S
SOUTH. TUESDAY NIGHT... SHOULD BRING ABOUT QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
WITH INCOMING SUBSIDENCE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE. WE MAY HAVE SOME FOG POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT IN
PORTIONS OF CWA WITH WET GROUND AND GIVEN WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH
BOUNDARY IN VICINITY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE QUIET PERIOD PERSISTS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
DEPARTING TROUGH AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ENHANCED BY DIFFERENTIAL CVA AHEAD OF
NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ROTATING UNDER H5 LOW TRACKING FROM ND TO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z THURSDAY. TEMPS TOPPING IN THE 80S AND
DEWPTS IN THE 60S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE CAPE OF 1500-2500
J/KG. A FEW MODELS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-45 KTS
WHICH ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-
8.5 C/KM SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING WITH SOME RISK OF LONG LIVED MULTICELL CLUSTER(S)
AND/OR A FEW SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A
FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE IN THIS MODERATE/STRONG KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... COOLER WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY POST
FRONTAL USHERED IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION THURSDAY MID AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET WITH
SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT (POSSIBLY
30S IN SHELTERED AREAS NORTH WHERE WINDS DIMINISH ALLOWING DECOUPLING
OF BL) WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF INCOMING
WEAK SUBSIDENCE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... CONTINUED COOL DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND COMPLIMENTS
OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT HARBORING MAIN THRUST OF COLD ADVECTION. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY PM WITH GUSTY WINDS IN STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE REGIME.
HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY DROP INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ON SATURDAY WITH
850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -1C TO -4C 12Z SATURDAY RECOVERING TO AROUND
0C BY 00Z SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMP TECHNIQUE AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL INVERSION
SUGGEST AT LEAST MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGS FOR LOWS SUNDAY AM... WITH POTENTIAL
TO BE COLDER INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTH WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FROST RISK IN
SHELTERED OR LOW LYING AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WHICH CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
AFTER AN INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DECREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE...FOLLOWED
BY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS LIKELY MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
335 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING
BACK NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS PUSHING LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH AND OUT OF THE CWA...BUT LEAVING PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND...LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHOWERS. A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE HAS
SET UP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MANY LOW SPOTS IN
THE LOWER 50S WHILE RIDGES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...VARY FROM THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST
PARTS OF THE AREA TO THE UPPER 40S IN NORTHEAST. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT ENERGY PACKETS CROSSING KENTUCKY IN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A PLAINS LOW OPENS UP AND WORKS NORTHEAST. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST WILL PIVOT JUST
NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY DRAGGING LOWER HEIGHTS AND ITS
CORE ENERGY THROUGH THE STATE. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A TAD
STRONGER WITH THIS EVOLUTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER...THE
DIFFERENCE DOES NOT AFFECT ITS SOLUTION MUCH AND IT WILL BE LEANED
TOWARD AS A HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL OPTION FOR THE TUESDAY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...A GENERAL MODEL BLEND...AND FAVORING OF THE
HRRR EARLY ON...GUIDED THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE SUNSHINE.
LOOK FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. A
STRAY SHOWER OR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS
HAPPENS...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING MAINLY JUST NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN NEARER THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN AS THE EXPANSIVE SFC LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. FOR TUESDAY...EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE FIRMLY IN
THE LARGE SYSTEM/S WARM SECTOR. ACCORDINGLY...LOOK FOR INSTABILITY
TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY...FUELED BY INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. IN ADDITION...SOME WIND SHEER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL. IN FACT...SOME MCS
ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ALSO IMPACT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
SPC HAS OUTLINED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...
GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 75...FOR A SLIGHT RISK LATER TUESDAY.
THE REST OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
INITIALIZED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND FOR
MOST BASIC ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR RIDGE/VALLEY
TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS TO KEEP A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALBEIT
MOSTLY JUST SMALL CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES IN THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEP TROUGH TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH
WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING PIECES OF ENERGY TO
DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH EAST AND
FLATTEN OUT AS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS KENTUCKY RESUMES ALOFT BY MONDAY.
AT THE SFC...A SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THE FIRST LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WILL CROSS THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT LOW WILL CROSS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. RAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE BREIF PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 DURING THE REST OF
THE NIGHT...ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND
SHORT-LIVED. SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS REVOLVE AROUND PATCHY FOG
THROUGH DAWN. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR STRAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH ON
MONDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
328 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon May 9 2016
Over the next few days, there will be several chances for showers
and thunderstorms over central KY and south-central IN. However,
delineating exact timing, coverage, and intensity of convection is
a bit tenuous given much mesoscale influence expected to convective
evolution. Nevertheless, synoptically a mean mid-level trough axis
over the Rockies will push eastward today and Tuesday across the
Plains and mid MS Valley, eventually through the OH Valley. Episodic
convection with this feature will lay out various boundaries and
cloud shields that will dictate daily destabilization and ultimate
convective development.
For today, it will be mostly cloudy as a mid/upper-level moisture
stream flows northeast across our area. Meanwhile, a weak frontal
boundary over KY will lift north putting us into the warm sector.
The 00z operational models, including the high-res HRRR and WRF NMM
suggest that scattered showers will move northeast across the north
and west portions of our forecast area today. Highest POPs (still in
chance/scattered category) will be over west-central KY though south-
central IN today, with lowest chances in eastern parts of south-
central KY. Rainfall amounts should be less than a quarter inch.
By late today and tonight, models suggest a lull in precip with just
debris clouds streaming northeast. However, a line of strong to
severe convection (QLCS) will develop over parts of the lower to mid
MS Valley late today and move northeast into the lower OH Valley
late tonight/Tuesday morning supported by a negative-tilted trough
aloft. Nevertheless, models suggest convection will be weakening as
it enters our forecast area. POPs in grids have been adjusted to
account for these latest expected trends tonight/Tuesday morning.
On Tuesday, any morning activity should push through with some
afternoon sunshine and cool air aloft resulting in steepening lower
and mid-level lapse rates and at least moderate instability. The
main question will be amount of debris clouds leftover from the
morning (depicted most by the NAM) which could limit instability.
However, general consensus is that robust destabilization will occur
in the afternoon. In addition, shear profiles are not bad with a
south surface wind veering to 50-60 kts at 300 mb. While organized
forcing is a bit tenuous at this time, scattered to numerous
convective development appears probably Tuesday afternoon or
evening, some some strong to severe cells that could produce wind
damage and hail.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon May 9 2016
...More chances for thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday...
The weather pattern will continue active during the mid week period
with pretty good model agreement/consensus on the synoptic pattern.
A possible mesoscale convective system late Tuesday/Tuesday night
will have moved to our east by Wednesday. In its wake, a flat mid-
level ridge axis will progress across the OH Valley. This will lead
to some sunshine and potentially moderate to strong instability
during the afternoon as surface temperatures warm into the lower to
mid 80s, and surface dewpoints increase into the lower and mid 60s.
Forcing for convection, however, appears somewhat weak during the
day, with more of a pulse storm situation, i.e., isolated to
scattered cells that could be strong with locally gusty winds.
For late Wednesday night and especially Thursday, another trough
axis aloft will approach the OH Valley, with potential for more
organized convection. Models do show timing differences, but agree
on the convective signal. A QLCS will be possible during this
period.
Rainfall amounts from Tuesday through Thursday will vary
significantly depending on convective evolution each day, and
whether cells propagate over the same areas. Overall, 1-2 inches are
possible, although local amounts around 3 inches are in play if
episodic convection trains over similar locations.
Drier air will finally move into the area Friday as the flow aloft
becomes northwesterly. This will be short-lived, however, as a
digging shortwave in the flow brings another chance of showers about
Saturday with additional showers possible again late next weekend.
High temperatures late next week (Friday) through next weekend will
be cooler in the lower 70s Friday and perhaps only in the 60s next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 125 AM EDT Mon May 9 2016
Complicated upper level pattern in place over the U.S. is making
timing of precipitation even in the first 24 hours difficult. A
short wave swinging around Low pressure centered over the Rockies
will move through the Ohio River Valley today, but model guidance
varies greatly on whether or not this could bring showers to the
three TAF sites during the daylight hours today. There is better
agreement on convection just beyond the 24-hr TAF time frame -
in the outlook period for KSDF.
With surface high pressure over West Virginia still dominating the
low-level flow at 05Z, surface winds were still from the east,
though were beginning to work their way around to the south, helping
to usher in higher dewpoints in advance of the short wave which
would aid convection. Given model uncertainty, lack of ongoing
convection, and relatively minimal lower level moisture field, will
only go VCSH today, and keep CIGS at or above 050. As mentioned
above, winds will swing around to south, generally under 10 kt, but
possibly with some gusts to around 15kt.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........TWF
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........JBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
215 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ADD IN THE LATEST CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR
T/TD/WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED THESE FOR
THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THE MAIN THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HAS
LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA SO POPS AND WX WERE UPDATED...AS WELL.
THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1053 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY. ENOUGH MOISTURE COUPLED
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THIS AREA...SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION FOR
NOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMAL IF ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
A WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE JKL
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AS YOU HEADED NORTH OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAD
EXITED TO THE NORTHEAST.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE WARM FRONT
WILL VERY SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD...EXITING NORTH OF THE JKL
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALOFT...WEAK RIDGING IS MOVING
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN
WEAKER WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE RIDGE...COUPLED WITH THE
BROADER AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW
MORE SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA AT TIMES. THE
FIRST OF THESE WAVES PASSES THIS EVENING...AND THE NEXT ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND A MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES FROM THE WEST. AT THE SAME
TIME...BETTER INFLOW FROM THE GULF ALSO STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS TO START MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAYTIME.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED. THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO HAVE ACROSS THE
MS AND OH VALLEY REGIONS IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS
THE CURRENT ROCKIES CLOSED LOW INTERACTS WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE FIRST OF THE
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
BEHIND IT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE THE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
INTO THE PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF A
CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A RIDGE
BRIEFLY AMPLIFIES FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES BY THU AND
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED OVER
NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...A BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION SHOULD LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...PUTTING THE REGION IN WARM SECTOR OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOW MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY REGIONS.
THIS LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AND SEND A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
THU INTO THU EVENING. A SECONDARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
IN NW FLOW SHOULD APPROACH TO START THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
BOUNDARY LIKELY SETTLING SOUTH OF THE AREA TO END THE WEEKEND.
RATHER HIGH POPS WERE USED FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY SHOULD LEAD TO BETTER
FORCING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. A DIURNAL TREND IN POPS WAS
USED ON WED DURING PEAK HEATING...HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD MAY COME ON THU INTO THU EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE CONSENSUS FOR NOW IS THAT
MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE BULK OF FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE WEEKEND ON FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES IN NW TO W FLOW ALOFT AS THE
PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A ZONAL NATURE TO END THE PERIOD COULD
PROLONG THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE DEPARTING BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTH.
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THAT MATERIALIZES WILL DETERMINE
THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION WHEN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS BEST ON
TUE INTO TUE EVENING AND AGAIN ON THU. MOISTURE AND HEATING COULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR CAPE TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG ON TUE AFTERNOON AND
OR EVENING WITH LI POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS -2C TO -4C. WINDS ALOFT
ARE NOT INCREDIBLY STRONG SO SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF
THE ORDINARY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM MON NIGHT CONVECTION MAY LIMIT HEATING ON TUESDAY.
THE SAME MAY HAPPEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD
AS CLOUD COVER AND RATHER MOIST ATMOSPHERE LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGES.TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL TO END THE
PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 DURING THE REST OF
THE NIGHT...ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND
SHORT-LIVED. SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS REVOLVE AROUND PATCHY FOG
THROUGH DAWN. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR STRAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH ON
MONDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
132 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Mon May 9 2016
Over the next few days, there will be several chances for showers
and thunderstorms over central KY and south-central IN. However,
delineating exact timing, coverage, location, and intensity of
convection is difficult given much mesoscale influence expected to
convective evolution. Synoptically, a mean mid-level trough axis
over the Rockies will push eastward today and Tuesday across the
Plains and mid MS Valley, eventually through the OH Valley. Episodic
convection will this feature will lay out various boundaries and
cloud shields that will dictate daily destabilization and ultimate
convective development.
Trying to delineate daily tendencies, today appears to be mostly
cloudy as debris clouds from convection to our west streams across
the area. At the same time, a weak frontal boundary over KY will
lift north putting our area into the warm sector. The GFS and NAM
hint that scattered showers and embedded thunder may develop later
this morning and move northeast across the north and west portions
of our forecast area today. This is supported most by the HRRR and
WRF NMM models, although not much shows up at this time in the
source region of where these models develop the showers.
Nevertheless, will retain highest POPs (scattered) over west-central
KY to south-central IN today. Rainfall amounts should be mainly less
than a quarter inch where rain occurs.
After this activity passes, high-resolution models suggest a lull in
precip this evening/tonight with just debris clouds streaming
northeast. However, these same models suggest a line of strong to
severe convection (QLCS) will develop over parts of the lower to mid
MS Valley late today and move northeast into the lower OH Valley
late tonight/Tuesday morning supported by the trough axis aloft,
albeit convection will be weakening as it enters our forecast area.
POPs in our current grid forecast appear too high too quickly
tonight, so have trimmed them back, with highest values Tuesday
morning.
On Tuesday, any morning activity should push through with some
afternoon sunshine and cool air aloft resulting in steepening lower
and mid-level lapse rates resulting in moderate instability.
GFSismore emphatic with this scenario than the NAM which keeps more
clouds and less destabilization over our area. Organized forcing is
a bit tenuous at this time, but scattered convection, some strong if
enough destabilization can occur, is possible late Tuesday
afternoon/evening.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun May 8 2016
An area of showers and storms will be ongoing across the region on
Tuesday morning. These storms look to weaken and push east through
the morning hours. The upper level wave will continue to slowly push
into the lower Ohio Valley through the day Tuesday and will move
east of the area by Wednesday morning. Another round of storms is
expected to fire up to the west in the afternoon and move through
during the afternoon to evening hours. The question with this
activity will be the severe potential. Soundings show 1000-1500 J/kg
of CAPE developing with wind shear increasing in the afternoon and
evening. Some strong to severe storms are not out of the question.
However, this will be complicated by earlier convection and if
clouds clear during the afternoon. Still, the system bears watching
over the next couple of days.
Wednesday the area looks to be in the warm sector and scattered
thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon.
There will then be another chance for storms Wednesday night into
Thursday morning as a cold front sweeps through. Behind this front
ridging will build in bringing a brief respite from the rounds of
showers and storms. All in all 1-2 inches of rain with locally
higher amounts can be expected this week.
After the brief break on Friday another wave will bring some rain to
the area late Friday night into early Friday morning.
Temperatures will be on the warmer side in the mid 70s to lower 80s
through Thursday. We will then have cooler air build in behind the
front with highs Friday through the weekend in the mid 60s to lower
70s.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 125 AM EDT Mon May 9 2016
Complicated upper level pattern in place over the U.S. is making
timing of precipitation even in the first 24 hours difficult. A
short wave swinging around Low pressure centered over the Rockies
will move through the Ohio River Valley today, but model guidance
varies greatly on whether or not this could bring showers to the
three TAF sites during the daylight hours today. There is better
agreement on convection just beyond the 24-hr TAF time frame -
in the outlook period for KSDF.
With surface high pressure over West Virginia still dominating the
low-level flow at 05Z, surface winds were still from the east,
though were beginning to work their way around to the south, helping
to usher in higher dewpoints in advance of the short wave which
would aid convection. Given model uncertainty, lack of ongoing
convection, and relatively minimal lower level moisture field, will
only go VCSH today, and keep CIGS at or above 050. As mentioned
above, winds will swing around to south, generally under 10 kt, but
possibly with some gusts to around 15kt.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........EER
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........JBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
427 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG CLOSED VORTEX SWINGING
FROM QC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TO THE WEST, CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY
PULLING EAST ACROSS THE TN VLY AND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW LOW LEVEL QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM SOUTHEAST NE, ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHERN NC....TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT.
NOTING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...INCLUDING SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER...ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL NC
COASTAL PLAIN. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE, SOME SHOWERS JUST STARTING TO SPILL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRE-FRONTAL WAA.
ONGOING SHRAS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY JUST AFTER DAYBREAK, LEAVING
SEVERAL SUBTLE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE EVENTUAL
ORIENTATION OF THOSE BOUNDARIES WILL EVENTUALLY DETERMINE LOCATION
OF GREATEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FOR TODAY, WE`LL BE OFF TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY START ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KY/NC WILL LIFT NORTH SLIGHTLY, WITH
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR AREA GETTING WARM SECTORED. 00Z/9
PROBABILISTIC MODELS AND CAMS, INCLUDING THE LAST FEW ITERATIONS
OF THE HIGH-RES HRRR AND SPC WRF ALL INDICATE STRONG SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
ACCORDINGLY, HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FAR NRN TIER.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO
EXACT LOCATION OF AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. HIGHS
70-75 WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S SOUTH
WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. WAA AT
H85 AHEAD OF IT RESULTS IN CHC SHOWERS MOST AREAS. LOWS IN THE
L-M50S NORTH...U50S-L60S SOUTH.
FRONT PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION TUES THROUGH WED. GIVEN
A NW FLOW AND MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...KEPT CHC POPS IN FCST
EACH DAY. SEVERAL WAVES ALONG THE BNDRY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
TIME PCPN. MAINTAINING CHC POPS EACH PERIOD WITH DIURNAL THUNDER
CHCS. AGAIN...HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON BNDRY LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
SUN. DID DROP TEMPS 1-2 CATEGORIES ACROSS THE FAR NE (MD EASTERN
SHORE) WITH COOL SECTOR NE FLOW APPEARING LKLY TO SET UP FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S FAR NE...70-75 ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ZONES...U70S- L80S IN AREAS ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
THE SOUTH. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE N50S- L60S.
BOUNDARY WILL BISECT THE LOCAL AREA FROM NW TO SE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE IN THE DAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WED AFTN/EVE. GIVEN PROGGED LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY, HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC POP OVER THE NE COAST, WITH
A HIGH END CHC POP IN PLACE WELL INLAND TO I-95. MUCH TOO EARLY
TO GET INTO DETAILS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH SO MUCH SUBJECT TO
CHANGE, BUT WITH 0-6 BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KT AND W/BROAD SCALE
FORCING MECHANISM PRESENT, WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SEVERE
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY OVER THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS AGAIN VARIABLE
WITH EXACT BOUNDARY LOCATION...BUT WILL RANGE FROM 70S TO L80S
FAR SW TO U60S/L70S FAR NE ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR PCPN AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY WILL STILL BE IN THE
VICINITY WED NGT/THU...LEADING TO A 30-50% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS.
HI TEMPS THU WILL RANGE FM THE MID 70S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO
THE LO 80S SRN AREAS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE W THU
NGT...AND CROSSES THE AREA BY FRI. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
(50% POPS) WITH THIS FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S FRI. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
LEADING TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH HI TEMPS STILL MAINLY IN
THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NC. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 12K FT AGL. WINDS CALM
TO LIGHT OUT OF THE S-SW.
FOR TODAY...THE FRONT LIFTS NWD NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST...BECOMING BKN-LOCALLY OVC 8-12K FT AGL. WINDS
REMAIN AOB 10 KT...BUT DIRECTIONS BECOME VARIABLE DUE TO THE WEAK
BOUNDARY.
THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION THRU
MID WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS EACH DAY. LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. THE RESULT IS LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS
2-3 FT. A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NC SLOWLY DRIFTS NWD OVER
THE WATERS TODAY...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY BTWN NELY AND
SWLY...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. WAVES 1-2 FT AND
SEAS2-3 FT. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT FRI...WITH SLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS. A COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
411 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG CLOSED VORTEX SWINGING
FROM QC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TO THE WEST, CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY
PULLING EAST ACROSS THE TN VLY AND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW LOW LEVEL QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM SOUTHEAST NE, ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHERN NC....TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT.
NOTING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...INCLUDING SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER...ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL NC
COASTAL PLAIN. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE, SOME SHOWERS JUST STARTING TO SPILL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRE-FRONTAL WAA.
ONGOING SHRAS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY JUST AFTER DAYBREAK, LEAVING
SEVERAL SUBTLE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE EVENTUAL
ORIENTATION OF THOSE BOUNDARIES WILL EVENTUALLY DETERMINE LOCATION
OF GREATEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FOR TODAY, WE`LL BE OFF TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY START ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KY/NC WILL LIFT NORTH SLIGHTLY, WITH
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR AREA GETTING WARM SECTORED. 00Z/9
PROBABILISTIC MODELS AND CAMS, INCLUDING THE LAST FEW ITERATIONS
OF THE HIGH-RES HRRR AND SPC WRF ALL INDICATE STRONG SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
ACCORDINGLY, HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FAR NRN TIER.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO
EXACT LOCATION OF AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. HIGHS
70-75 WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S SOUTH
WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. WAA AT
H85 AHEAD OF IT RESULTS IN CHC SHOWERS MOST AREAS. LOWS IN THE
L-M50S NORTH...U50S-L60S SOUTH.
FRONT PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION TUES THROUGH WED. GIVEN
A NW FLOW AND MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...KEPT CHC POPS IN FCST
EACH DAY. SEVERAL WAVES ALONG THE BNDRY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
TIME PCPN. MAINTAINING CHC POPS EACH PERIOD WITH DIURNAL THUNDER
CHCS. AGAIN...HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON BNDRY LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
SUN. DID DROP TEMPS 1-2 CATEGORIES ACROSS THE FAR NE (MD EASTERN
SHORE) WITH COOL SECTOR NE FLOW APPEARING LKLY TO SET UP FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S FAR NE...70-75 ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ZONES...U70S- L80S IN AREAS ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
THE SOUTH. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE N50S- L60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR PCPN AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY WILL STILL BE IN THE
VICINITY WED NGT/THU...LEADING TO A 30-50% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS. HI
TEMPS THU WILL RANGE FM THE MID 70S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE LO
80S SRN AREAS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE W THU NGT...AND
CROSSES THE AREA BY FRI. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN (50% POPS)
WITH THIS FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S FRI. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH HI TEMPS STILL MAINLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NC. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 12K FT AGL. WINDS CALM
TO LIGHT OUT OF THE S-SW.
FOR TODAY...THE FRONT LIFTS NWD NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST...BECOMING BKN-LOCALLY OVC 8-12K FT AGL. WINDS
REMAIN AOB 10 KT...BUT DIRECTIONS BECOME VARIABLE DUE TO THE WEAK
BOUNDARY.
THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION THRU
MID WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS EACH DAY. LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. THE RESULT IS LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS
2-3 FT. A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NC SLOWLY DRIFTS NWD OVER
THE WATERS TODAY...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY BTWN NELY AND
SWLY...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. WAVES 1-2 FT AND
SEAS2-3 FT. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT FRI...WITH SLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS. A COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
501 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO MANITOBA AND A TROUGH OVER QUEBEC RESULTING IN CONFLUENT
NW MID/UPPER LEVEL THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO LOWER MI.
WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...IR LOOP SHOWED CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS UPPER MI.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT AS THE SFC RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...E TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST UPPER MI.
THE SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE 3C TO 7C RANGE...TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S INTERIOR WEST AND TO AROUND 60 OVER THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL PREVAIL DOWNWIND OF ERLY FLOW OFF
THE GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS...DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 20 TO 25
PERCENT...ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS ARE EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...DESPITE THE DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BOUNDARY
LAYER SE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING
TO KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF BELOW THE UPPER 30S. LOW TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WILL ARE EXPECTED NEAR IWD AND ONTONAGON
WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CONCERN AT LEAST INITIALLY THIS WEEK. UPPER
RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUE FORECAST TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AS INITIAL UPPER
TROUGH TRIES TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE MAINLY BLO H7 SLOWLY EDGES IN FM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUE BUT
CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO A FEW SPRINKLES/VIRGA OR
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER. KEPT MAX TEMPS
ONLY TO AROUND 60 WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LATE RAIN. HOWEVER...
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST AND WITH H85
TEMPS UP A GOOD 2-4C OVER THOSE TODAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
LOW 70S INTERIOR WEST AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE AWAY FM LK
MICHIGAN. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE WHERE
TEMPS ARE WARMEST. E-SE WINDS LOOK STRONGER AS WELL /10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AS SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO HIGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS...BUT A WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE INTO RIDGE ALONG WITH SURGE OF H9-H7 MOISTURE
AND HIGHER SFC DWPNTS COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER
MORE OF THE CWA ON TUE NIGHT. CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT AT BEST
THOUGH.
RIDGE ALOFT SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON WED AS
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL
CANADA. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE FM THE SOUTHWEST ON WED
NIGHT. IT IS THAT WAVE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND SFC TO
H85 CONVERGENCE ALONG INITIAL WEAKER COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT BRINGS
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. SFC AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF CWA SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TSRA
WITH THE SHRA. SINCE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/PVA STAYS WELL TO NORTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SECONDARY WAVE LIFTS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH FARTHER EAST
ACROSS CWA. TOTAL RAINFALL PROBABLY WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER A QUARTER
INCH EXCEPT FOR FAR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
AND EVEN THERE GFS IS FARTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH.
SHOWERS OVER EAST HALF COULD GET A BOOST AS THAT AREA IS ON NOSE OF
H3 JET AND LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE
INSTABILITY THOUGH FOR THIS TO BE MAJOR FACTOR AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM
WILL BE RUNNING INTO HIGHER HEIGHTS/DRY AIR. JUST NOT LOOKING LIKE A
LOT OF RAIN WHICH REALLY WOULD BE WELCOME GIVEN THE DRY PATTERN UPR
MICHIGAN IS IN CURRENTLY.
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO LEADING TROUGH AND RESULTS IN PERSISTENT
TROUGHING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL BE SHORTWAVES DROPPING
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN AND EVEN FARTHER SW ACROSS
WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NO TELLING WHAT
ACTUAL TRACK OF STRONGER WAVES WILL BE THOUGH. STILL APPEARS CHILLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -6C TO -8C FRI
EVENING AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -10C BY SAT MORNING BEFORE MODERATING
TO AROUND -4C BY LATER SUN. THE COOL H85 TEMPS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES BLO 1290DAM SUPPORT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR MAYBE
JUST SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS SFC TEMPS FALL TO AROUND FREEZING LATER
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. WATER TEMPS ON LK SUPERIOR ARE 3C
OPEN WATERS TO NEAR 5C NEARSHORE...SO COULD EVEN BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVES IN VCNTY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMULATION. GFS SHOWS STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND GIVEN THE BROAD DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT CANNOT RULE IT OUT. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND
TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM
THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS
TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS ON THU INTO FRI
WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
407 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CONFLUENT NW
FLOW ALF OVER THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO NEAR HUDSON BAY
AND AN UPR RDG EXTENDING FM THE NRN PLAINS THRU CENTRAL CANADA.
UNDER THIS CONFLUENT FLOW ALF...SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER FAR NW
ONTARIO IS EXTENDING A RDG AXIS TOWARD UPR MI. LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON
THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS UNDER THIS RDG AXIS IS RESULTING IN DRY WX
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DIURNAL CU. BUT INCOMING AIRMASS IS
QUITE DRY PER 12Z YPL RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS 0.22 INCH.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS WITH DRY HI PRES
FCST TO DOMINATE. WITH PERSISTENT DRYNESS BEFORE GREENUP...FIRE WX
ISSUES WL BE A CONCERN ON MON AFTN.
TNGT...EXPECT MOCLR SKIES WITH DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING...A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR A CHILLY OVERNGT. THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR OVER
THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA CLOSER TO WHERE THE HI PRES RDG IS FCST TO
BUILD AND BRING THE LIGHTEST WINDS. WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS IN THIS AREA. A LIGHT SE WIND OVER THE FAR W
UNDER A BIT SHARPER PRES GRADIENT ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE RDG AXIS
MAY LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP DROP THERE.
MON...HI PRES RDG AXIS WL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE ERN CWA. H85
TEMPS ARE FCST TO REBOUND TO BTWN ABOUT 4C OVER THE E TO NEAR 7C
OVER THE W...WHERE A STEADY SE FLOW IS FCST TO DOWNSLOPE. MAX TEMPS
IN THIS AREA WL AT LEAST APRCH 70. STEADIER SE WINDS IN THIS AREA WL
ALSO ACCENTUATE FIRE WX CONCERNS AS DAYTIME MIXING ALLOWS MIN RH TO
DIP TOWARD 20 TO 25 PCT. FORTUNATELY...THIS AREA WHERE THE SE WINDS
WL BE STRONGEST PICKED UP A BIT MORE RA ON FRI NGT. WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND E SHOULD BE LIGHTER AND LIMIT WILD FIRE POTENTIAL IN
THOSE AREAS DESPITE MORE RECENT DRYNESS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CONCERN AT LEAST INITIALLY THIS WEEK. UPPER
RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUE FORECAST TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AS INITIAL UPPER
TROUGH TRIES TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE MAINLY BLO H7 SLOWLY EDGES IN FM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUE BUT
CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO A FEW SPRINKLES/VIRGA OR
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER. KEPT MAX TEMPS
ONLY TO AROUND 60 WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LATE RAIN. HOWEVER...
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST AND WITH H85
TEMPS UP A GOOD 2-4C OVER THOSE TODAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
LOW 70S INTERIOR WEST AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE AWAY FM LK
MICHIGAN. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE WHERE
TEMPS ARE WARMEST. E-SE WINDS LOOK STRONGER AS WELL /10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AS SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO HIGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS...BUT A WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE INTO RIDGE ALONG WITH SURGE OF H9-H7 MOISTURE
AND HIGHER SFC DWPNTS COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER
MORE OF THE CWA ON TUE NIGHT. CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT AT BEST
THOUGH.
RIDGE ALOFT SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON WED AS
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL
CANADA. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE FM THE SOUTHWEST ON WED
NIGHT. IT IS THAT WAVE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND SFC TO
H85 CONVERGENCE ALONG INITIAL WEAKER COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT BRINGS
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. SFC AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF CWA SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TSRA
WITH THE SHRA. SINCE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/PVA STAYS WELL TO NORTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SECONDARY WAVE LIFTS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH FARTHER EAST
ACROSS CWA. TOTAL RAINFALL PROBABLY WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER A QUARTER
INCH EXCEPT FOR FAR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
AND EVEN THERE GFS IS FARTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH.
SHOWERS OVER EAST HALF COULD GET A BOOST AS THAT AREA IS ON NOSE OF
H3 JET AND LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE
INSTABILITY THOUGH FOR THIS TO BE MAJOR FACTOR AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM
WILL BE RUNNING INTO HIGHER HEIGHTS/DRY AIR. JUST NOT LOOKING LIKE A
LOT OF RAIN WHICH REALLY WOULD BE WELCOME GIVEN THE DRY PATTERN UPR
MICHIGAN IS IN CURRENTLY.
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO LEADING TROUGH AND RESULTS IN PERSISTENT
TROUGHING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL BE SHORTWAVES DROPPING
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN AND EVEN FARTHER SW ACROSS
WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NO TELLING WHAT
ACTUAL TRACK OF STRONGER WAVES WILL BE THOUGH. STILL APPEARS CHILLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -6C TO -8C FRI
EVENING AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -10C BY SAT MORNING BEFORE MODERATING
TO AROUND -4C BY LATER SUN. THE COOL H85 TEMPS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES BLO 1290DAM SUPPORT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR MAYBE
JUST SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS SFC TEMPS FALL TO AROUND FREEZING LATER
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. WATER TEMPS ON LK SUPERIOR ARE 3C
OPEN WATERS TO NEAR 5C NEARSHORE...SO COULD EVEN BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVES IN VCNTY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMULATION. GFS SHOWS STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND GIVEN THE BROAD DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT CANNOT RULE IT OUT. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS THRU TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES
BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL BECOME ENE UP 15 TO 25 KTS ON MON
AFTERNOON/NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES GRADIENT ON
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HI PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND TERRAIN
INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE
HI SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LO PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SW...THE
FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LO SHIFTS TO THE NE AND
INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS ON THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT TO
THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CONFLUENT NW
FLOW ALF OVER THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO NEAR HUDSON BAY
AND AN UPR RDG EXTENDING FM THE NRN PLAINS THRU CENTRAL CANADA.
UNDER THIS CONFLUENT FLOW ALF...SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER FAR NW
ONTARIO IS EXTENDING A RDG AXIS TOWARD UPR MI. LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON
THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS UNDER THIS RDG AXIS IS RESULTING IN DRY WX
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DIURNAL CU. BUT INCOMING AIRMASS IS
QUITE DRY PER 12Z YPL RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS 0.22 INCH.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS WITH DRY HI PRES
FCST TO DOMINATE. WITH PERSISTENT DRYNESS BEFORE GREENUP...FIRE WX
ISSUES WL BE A CONCERN ON MON AFTN.
TNGT...EXPECT MOCLR SKIES WITH DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING...A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR A CHILLY OVERNGT. THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR OVER
THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA CLOSER TO WHERE THE HI PRES RDG IS FCST TO
BUILD AND BRING THE LIGHTEST WINDS. WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS IN THIS AREA. A LIGHT SE WIND OVER THE FAR W
UNDER A BIT SHARPER PRES GRADIENT ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE RDG AXIS
MAY LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP DROP THERE.
MON...HI PRES RDG AXIS WL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE ERN CWA. H85
TEMPS ARE FCST TO REBOUND TO BTWN ABOUT 4C OVER THE E TO NEAR 7C
OVER THE W...WHERE A STEADY SE FLOW IS FCST TO DOWNSLOPE. MAX TEMPS
IN THIS AREA WL AT LEAST APRCH 70. STEADIER SE WINDS IN THIS AREA WL
ALSO ACCENTUATE FIRE WX CONCERNS AS DAYTIME MIXING ALLOWS MIN RH TO
DIP TOWARD 20 TO 25 PCT. FORTUNATELY...THIS AREA WHERE THE SE WINDS
WL BE STRONGEST PICKED UP A BIT MORE RA ON FRI NGT. WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND E SHOULD BE LIGHTER AND LIMIT WILD FIRE POTENTIAL IN
THOSE AREAS DESPITE MORE RECENT DRYNESS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BRINGING A
WARMER AIRMASS INTO WED AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE W. HIGHS
TUE IN THE 60S AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORES INCREASE TO MID 60S
TO MID 70S ON WED. THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE TURNING COOLER AS
THAT UPPER LOW MOVES IN...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S SAT.
LOW RH VALUES WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
E...DOWN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT INTERIOR W...TUE AFTERNOON AS WINDS
GUST TO 20-25MPH. RH IMPROVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AREA SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP SW OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE WED. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING SOME PRECIP BRUSHING THE WI BORDER MON NIGHT INTO WED...BUT
JUST HOW FAR THE SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT INTO THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
WILL BE TRICKY. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW END AND CONFINED TO NEAR
THE WI BORDER THROUGH LATE WED. WED NIGHT AND THU LOOK TO SEE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SFC COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. ALTHOUGH THE GFS ONLY
HAVE SOME AREAS SEEING A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF...THE ECMWF HAS ALL
AREAS WITH AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH. FRI INTO SUN COULD HAVE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR INSIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIP AS
850MB TEMPS DROP TO OR BELOW -7C. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONG W WINDS OVER THE KEWEENAW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI...SO WILL BE
MONITORING THAT TOO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS THRU TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES
BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL BECOME ENE UP 15 TO 25 KTS ON MON
AFTERNOON/NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES GRADIENT ON
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HI PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND TERRAIN
INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE
HI SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LO PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SW...THE
FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LO SHIFTS TO THE NE AND
INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS ON THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT TO
THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
433 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
The storms continue this morning, with the precip currently primarily
concentrated across northern MO. The convective cluster currently
occupying space over southern NE into northern KS may clip NW MO
later this morning but the focus is on the convection initiating over
central KS. Both hi-res and other models have been struggling to
resolve what`s going on so forecasting the near term is largely
dependent on radar trends and area observations. As for later today,
it`s difficult to pinpoint who exactly is going to see storms when
due to the nature of the setup. Will see multiple rounds of storms,
although most models are suggesting very good chances later this
afternoon into this evening across the eastern two-thirds of the
forecast area. The GFS is particularly bullish in the precip,
indicating a line of storms dumping decent rain in the aforementioned
area.
As for the severe potential for today, uncertainty exists in the
amount of instability that storms will have to work with. If the
atmosphere is unable to recover due to any sort of morning
convection, will be hard-pressed to see widespread severe threat.
Even if the atmosphere is able to destabilize enough to warrant
concern, 0-6km bulk shear values are marginal to support anything
significant. Bottom line: complicated severe forecast for today given
that the chances are largely based on what happens this morning.
However, continued threat exists for locally heavy rain so the focus
for weather impacts will certainly be hydro-related.
While mentionable PoPs continues from overnight tonight into
overnight Tuesday, generally speaking, the area should see a bit of a
break overall. Convection ramps back up on Wednesday as surface low
and attendant cold front marches through. Severe chances once again
exists for Wed. afternoon into the evening hours, although the
limiting factor may be the displacement of shear. Better shear values
look to lag behind the front and instability so will need to monitor
subsequent model runs to see if the two can sync up with each other
at all. Not out of the question that a narrow line of the two
parameters lines up immediately ahead of the front. That said, with
plentiful instability out ahead of the front to work with, along with
decent lapse rates and coincident increasing lower-level flow, these
parameters could very well overcome the potential limiting factor.
Stay tuned.
We`ll finally have a brief dry period before the next disturbance
comes through to end the week. Diverging model solutions toward the
end of the forecast period puts some uncertainty into precip chances
to round out next weekend but both the GFS and ECMWF hint at a slow-
moving boundary lingering about. Regarding temperatures, previously
discussed struggles with atmospheric recovery today should limit
highs to the lower to mid 70s. For tomorrow though, uninhibited WAA
will re-introduce 80s for much of the area. Temp gradient then sets
up on Wednesday with temps struggling to reach the 70 degree mark
behind the front but raising up into the 80s out ahead of the
boundary in central MO. Temps will then hang out on the cooler side
of normal for much of the rest of the forecast period.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
Combination of VFR and MVFR conditions are prevailing late tonight
at the terminals. Current trajectory for storms in Kansas looks like
the storms will either pass to the north or fizzle out before they
get to the terminals early this morning. As such, have kept the idea
going of rain developing in the late morning and thunderstorms for
the late afternoon hours of Monday. Otherwise, expect surface winds
to remain up and from the southeast overnight, veering more south and
getting gusty late Monday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...lg
Aviation...Cutter
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
353 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Mon May 9 2016
Potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop at anytime today
will complicate forecast. Regional radars are showing scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing in strong low level moisture
convergence over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois. This
trend will likely continue through most of the morning hours as the
RAP and the SPC HRRR is showing additional thunderstorms developing
along and north of a warm front this morning. This front will move
north of the CWA by this afternoon in response to an approaching
upper level trough from the Central Plains. Additional
thunderstorms are expected to develop over Missouri this afternoon
as strong ascent increases ahead of the trough at the same time
there will be strong low level moisture convergence over the area.
Deep layer shear will also be increasing above 40kts which favors
organized convection per the latest SPC day 1 outlook, however the
main limiting factor will be amount of instability over the area.
This will be determined if the atmosphere has enough time to recover
from previous showers and thunderstorms and how much solar
insolation there is today to help heat up the atmosphere.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Mon May 9 2016
Still looks like tonight through Wednesday will be an active period
for showers and thunderstorms. GFS/NAM/ECMWF are still in good
agreement that a closed low now over the southwestern CONUS will
move northeast allowing for a series of shortwave troughs to move
across the Missouri and Illinois in southwesterly flow aloft through
Tuesday night. The details in the forecast will be muddied by
boundaries from ongoing convection and the ability of the atmosphere
to recover from previous thunderstorms.
For tonight, both the GFS and NAM show the front moving slowly north
through the CWA. There will be decent low level moisture
convergence over the area as a mid level vort max moves across the
area, so will go with likely or categorical PoPS along and north of
the frontal boundary. On Monday and Monday night, there remains the
potential for a few strong or severe storms as a negatively tilted
shortwave moves across the area on Monday night. Deep layer shear
will increase to 40kts by late Monday and Monday night which favors
organized convection. Warm front will move north the area early in
the day, so there will not be a strong surface front to focus
convection on. However, models continue to show pockets of strong
low level moisture convergence during this period. GFS and NAM has a
weaker shortwave trough moving across the area on Tuesday, but the
instability is stronger with some deep shear. This could lead to a
few strong or severe thunderstorms on Tuesday also per the latest
SPC Day 3 outlook. The cold front remains to the west of the area
however. A shortwave ridge will move over the area on Wednesday, but
the ECMWF and NAM are showing the atmosphere becoming very unstable
ahead of a cold front. This front is associated with another upper
trough that will drop out of southwest Canada tonight and move
through the Midwest on Thursday.
Rain chances will be lower late in the week as upper flow turns back
west northwesterly and the cold front shifts south of the area. A
weak shortwave will move across the area late Friday and early
Saturday warranting another chance of showers.
Temperatures will be near normal on Monday when the best chance of
rain will be before climbing above normal on Wednesday ahead of the
midweek cold front with 850mb temperatures around 15C. Temperatures
will fall back below towards next weekend, particularly on Saturday
when the GFS/ECMWF show 850mb temperatures near 0C.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016
Not a lot of changes from the 00z TAFs. A second round of precip
still appears possible for KSTL/KSUS/KCPS late tonight to around
sunrise. This second round seems less likely for KUIN, but will
leave a mention of VCSH for now. Unfortunately, more questions are
raised for convection on Mon, with much of it depending upon how
tonight evolves. Still, think the general trends are similar to
prev thinking.
Tilly
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 74 63 79 67 / 70 80 40 30
Quincy 68 60 77 61 / 80 80 50 30
Columbia 69 60 81 64 / 80 80 40 20
Jefferson City 71 61 82 64 / 80 80 40 20
Salem 76 63 75 63 / 50 80 60 40
Farmington 73 60 75 62 / 60 80 40 40
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
204 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. BETTER
RAIN CHANCES MATERIALIZE ON THURSDAY AS A FRONT DROPS INTO THE
AREA, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. DRIER AIR IS SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND AS IS A SLIGHT COOLDOWN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 640 PM SUNDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS AND CUT BACK ON AREAL
COVERAGE FOR AREAS WHERE WE DID HAVE POPS FOR THIS EVENING. COLUMN
JUST LOOKS TOO DRY FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO OCCUR AND LATEST
HI-RES MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NOTHING DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. HAVE
CHANGED WORDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM ISOLATED/SCATTERED TO
REFLECT INCREASED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE WILL DROP POPS COMPLETELY WITH NEXT UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE MAIN CONCERN/CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN MORE BULLISH AND CONVECTIVE CUMULUS
ARE UNDERWAY. SEEMS PROFILES NEED A LITTLE MORE PRIMING FROM MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SET TO ADVANCE INTO THE AREA. HAVE HELD POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS. SPC HAS PLACED THE NORTHERN
MOST AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK. BEYOND THIS ACTIVITY LATER
TONIGHT...ALL IS QUIET. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ONCE AGAIN WENT JUST
ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING OR WHAT CAN BE
INTERPRETED AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
FOR THE SHORT TERM. WITH PW VALUES HOVERING TOWARD ONE INCH AND
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL VELOCITIES...A DRY FORECAST IS IN
ORDER. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STILL ON THE WARM SIDE FOR MONDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD 90S. IT LOOKS LIKE JUST ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY TO COOL READINGS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL, TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THE BEACHES WILL
ENJOY A HEALTHY SEA BREEZE. THIS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST ON
THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTAINING SMALL SCALE IMPULSES. A COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. THURSDAY WILL TURN OUT A BIT
MORE CLOUDY AND WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THIS FRONT MAY MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME
SLIGHTLY BOLSTERED PVA ALOFT. THIS PERIOD NOW REPRESENTS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE LONG TERM BUT MAY ALSO LEAD TO A
POSSIBLY RAIN-FREE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...BASICALLY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THRUOUT THE 24 HR
VALID TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD.
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED WEST TO EAST LIES ACROSS
NC...JUST NORTH OF THE ILM NC TERMINALS. THIS POSITION WILL
PERSIST THRU TUE. CONVECTION THAT DOES FIRE WILL BASICALLY REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS. WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH OCCASIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE ILM NC TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...ALSO EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU TODAY. WITH
INSTABILITY LACKING...IE PROGGED CAPE WELL BELOW 1K THIS AFTN...
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP OUT THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION ALTOGETHER. AS
FOR WINDS...LOOKING AT WSW-SW 5 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS
MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COASTAL TERMINALS WHERE
WSW 5 KT BACKS TO SSW 10 TO 15 KT WITH G18 KT DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE FROM EARLY THIS AFTN AND INTO THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED-FRI
DUE TO SCT SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY ITS
PASSAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
RATHER ROUTINE OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL. A BACKDOOR FRONT
SHOULD`T MAKE ENOUGH PROGRESS SOUTH TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...GENERALLY STEADY STATE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE OVERNIGHT MONDAY VIA LOW LEVEL JETTING. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY ...WEST-EAST ELONGATED HIGH OFFSHORE WILL MAKE
FOR RATHER LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND WAVES WILL BE QUITE SMALL AND COEXIST WITH A MINOR ESE WELL
FOR A TOTAL DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 3 FT. THE HIGH MOVES
EASTWARD AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY BUT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ENTERS THE CAROLINAS. THESE TWO OFFSET EACH OTHER WITH RESPECT TO
THE GRADIENT LOCALLY AND EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COAST MUCH OF FRIDAY
VEERING FLOW TO WESTERLY AND SHAVING A FEW KNOTS OFF OF OVERALL
SPEEDS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON AND WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. THE SOUTHERN BEACHES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH WILL BE CLOSE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...REK/MBB/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
246 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM THIS MORNING PER SURFACE OBS VERSUS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
CURRENT READINGS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN CWA ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
WEAK SHORTWAVE PER GUIDANCE...AND HRRR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. THUS WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR TODAY. DESPITE
CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS...ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL WARM DAY IS
ANTICIPATED AND WENT ABOVE MOS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.
MAIN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT THEN SWING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RAPIDLY SHEARING APART AND WEAKENING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO
OUR WEST TODAY ACROSS OK/AR/MO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OUTRUNNING THE
INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AND THUS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
FORECAST AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A 30 KT 850 MB JET BRINGS DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO THE
AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE CAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE
AND WITH WEAKENING UPPER JET PASSING OVERHEAD...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCE IS IN NORTHWEST ZONES. AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MODEST SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS
TO BE STRONG OR POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AS PARAMETERS ARE NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE AND UPPER JET WILL BE QUICKLY WEAKENING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT. NEVERTHELESS...IF AN MCS CAN
ORGANIZE TO OUR NORTHWEST AND HEAD THIS WAY AS 00Z ECMWF
SUGGESTS...SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE. SPC HAS ADDED MOST OF
THE AREA INTO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
MORE SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AREAWIDE. LARGE
UPPER TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL FORCE A
DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST PUSHING FRONT THROUGH AREA AND SIDED
WITH THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK AT AROUND 25 KTS...PLENTIFUL CAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH BOUNDARY FOCUS COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS. CONVECTION WILL CLEAR OUT BY FRIDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A WETTER
PERIOD IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD DIFFUSE FRONTAL
ZONE STALLS NEAR OR ACROSS TENNESSEE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE KEPT TEMPS
GENERALLY NEAR THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED BUT WENT
WITH LOWER POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE FRONTAL ZONE MAY
ACTUALLY END UP.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT IN THE CKV AREA...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...MAINLY IN THE 12-15 KFT RANGE. LIGHT SSW WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10KT ON MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 83 65 84 66 85 / 20 40 40 50 40
CLARKSVILLE 79 63 79 64 82 / 20 60 40 60 40
CROSSVILLE 79 60 78 63 80 / 10 20 40 40 40
COLUMBIA 81 63 82 64 84 / 20 40 30 40 40
LAWRENCEBURG 81 61 82 64 84 / 10 20 30 40 40
WAVERLY 80 63 81 64 84 / 20 60 40 60 40
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........BARNWELL
LONG TERM..................55/SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1113 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING TONIGHT WILL PASS EAST EARLY MONDAY. MID
LEVEL ENHANCEMENT MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THREATENING
MAINLY KCDS AT TIMES...THOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS TOO LOW TO COVER
OTHER THAN IN A VICINITY MENTION MAINLY BEFORE 06Z FOR NOW. DRYING
ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THIS DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
PULLING EAST OF THE AREA MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE FLOW
WILL VEER BEHIND THIS TROUGH WITH SHARP DRYING ONCE AGAIN...AND
THIS TIME THE SURFACE DRYLINE SHOULD PULL FAR TO THE EAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO WILL TIGHTEN
MONDAY LEADING TO WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS MAY YIELD
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM BLOWING DUST...WE WILL ADDRESS THIS
IN LATER FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN
&&
.UPDATE...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ENHANCED IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS...ENOUGH EVEN FOR A LITTLE THUNDER. UPDATED FOR LOW CHANCE
THUNDER THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/
AVIATION...
FAIRLY DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FAVORING BREEZY OR WINDY MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT WINDS. A SURFACE DRY LINE WITH OUTFLOW
ENHANCEMENT WILL RETREAT WEST AND NORTHWEST TO ABOUT A KLBB TO
KCDS LINE BY MID OR LATE EVENING. MAJORITY OF THUNDER ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF THIS LINE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
PRECISE PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BECOME APPARENT UNTIL
LATER AND MAY REQUIRE TAF ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL IF NEAR ENOUGH.
MOISTURE WILL SCOUR EAST AGAIN EARLY MONDAY AND SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF TODAY IF NOT EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/
SHORT TERM...
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE TODAY BUT ARE STARTING TO GET WITH
THE PROGRAM AS OF 20Z WITH SEVERAL TTU MESONET LOCATIONS NOW
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. WOULD
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET AS LOWER AND MID LEVEL
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MAKING GOOD
HEADWAY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. STILL THINK WE WILL SEE SOME
GUSTS IN THE 45-50 MPH RANGE AT MANY LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WIND ADVISORY THROUGH
01Z.
WINDS HAVE VEERED AND DEWPOINTS HAVE CRASHED AT MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE CWA...SAVE PERHAPS EXTREME EASTERN AREA. DESPITE
THIS...SUPER RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING A GROWING CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND WE MAY SEE A HIGH BASED STORM OR
TWO FORM FROM CHILDRESS DOWN TO ASPERMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR JUST EAST OF CWA WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE IS MAINTAINED. A DIFFERENT STORY MAY EXIST LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR...YANKING DRYLINE WEST ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS TO THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. GFS AND HRRR SHOW
CONVECTION INITIATING AND/OR ADVECTING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
THIS EVENING WHILE TTU WRF KEEPS ACTIVITY JUST EAST OF STONEWALL
COUNTY. WHILE CLEAR FROM A SLAM DUNK SCENARIO...IF STORMS DO FIRE
THERE WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...CAPE AND SHEAR TO
RESULT IN SEVERE WIND/HAIL SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WE WILL BE
WATCHING FOR.
SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL BE THE
SAME OLD STORY WITH THE WIND AS LOW TO MID LEVEL GRADIENTS REMAIN
QUITE STOUT. WEST WINDS SHOULD CRANK BACK UP TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...IF NOT SOONER...COMPLETE
WITH PATCHY BLOWING DUST ON THE CAPROCK. JW
LONG TERM...
GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY IS LEADING TO FEW CHANGES THIS THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA TUESDAY MAY BE
ABLE TO UNLOCK AIR MASS THAT IS PROGGED TO HAVE DEW POINTS NEAR 50
DEGREES. NOTHING SPECIAL THERE...BUT CERTAINLY WORTHY OF
CONTINUING THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE
WEEKEND. GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FCST AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...POSSIBLY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL INTERACTION...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF THAT SCENARIO SOME. SETUP
REMINISCENT OF A MID-SUMMER NORTHWEST FLOW SCENARIO. DEW POINTS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S POSSIBLY WITH A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW
SUGGESTS POPS OF 20-30 PCT STILL JUSTIFIED.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
326 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS/RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN WY/CO WITH A WING OF PV-
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING NORTHWARD
THROUGH EASTERN NEB. ANOTHER WAVE WAS NOTED MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO WHICH WAS KICKING OFF SHOWER THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL. QUITE OVER OUR LOCAL
AREA RIGHT NOW UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
MID/HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM
RANGED FROM 39 DEGREES AT BLACK RIVER FALLS WI...TO 59 DEGREES
AT OELWIEN IA.
FOR TODAY...BULK OF MESO MODELS SHOW THAT ARM OF PV-ADVECTION
CONVECTION STAYING WEST OF THE AREA WHILE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
IA/MO WAVE CONVECTION MAYBE SNEAKING INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 BEFORE
ERODING IN DRIER AIR IN PLACE. KEPT CHANCY 30-50 POPS IN FOR THIS
MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF BY NOON. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE AREA ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF I-94 WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE QUITE A BIT OF MID/HIGH CLOUD WILL BE OVER
THE AREA WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 60S.
WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES TONIGHT AS
THAT CLOSED LOW OPENS INTO A TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. INCREASING LIFT/MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD
PRODUCE ANY WHERE FROM 1/10 INCH TO LOCALLY 3/4 INCH OF
RAINFALL...LEAST ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94 AND HIGHEST ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI.
SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...
TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH
THE REGION...EXITING BY MIDNIGHT. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL SUFFER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING
OFF IN THE MIDDLE 50/NEAR 60 ALONG/NORTH OF I-94...TO THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MODEL SHOWING A SLOWER PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF COLD FRONT FROM THE
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
50S. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT THEN
BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT. NAM/GFS SHOW CAPE INCREASING INTO THE
1000-1500J/KG RANGE BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH 0-
3KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-35KT. MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
PERHAPS A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND DOES BEAR
WATCHING.
LINGERING COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING
THROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY.
PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH SUNDAY AS
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGIONS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE TURNING CHILLY WITH
HIGHS SLIPPING INTO THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
THE WARM FRONT HAS PROGRESSED INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING.
ONE AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WAS
PROGRESSING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND WILL STAY
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION WAS OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WAS TIED CLOSELY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EASTERN WYOMING. THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALMOST DUE
NORTH AND IS HANDLED WELL BY THE 09.00Z CR-NAM NEST AND 09.03Z
HRRR WHICH TAKE THIS ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT.
THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN BETWEEN WITH LITTLE OR NO FORCING TO
PRODUCE ANY RAIN. THE HRRR TRIES TO KEEP SOME OF THE MISSOURI
ACTIVITY ALIVE AND BRINGS IN MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
BY MID MORNING AND WILL MAINTAIN THE VCSH FOR THIS AT KLSE AND
TAKE KRST DOWN TO JUST A VCSH AS WELL. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND WITH A
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD SEE SOUTHEAST GUSTS IN THE 25
TO 30 KNOT RANGE FOR BOTH SITES. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO IOWA MONDAY EVENING AND THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES A LITTLE BIT INTO THE AREA. WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THERE SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP. THE CR NAM-NEST DOES NOT SHOW MUCH COVERAGE WITH THESE
SHOWERS...AGAIN KEEPING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST AND
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL JUST INCLUDE A VCSH FOR BOTH
SITES FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW WIDESPREAD...AND
POTENTIAL TOTALS.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLATED TO LIFT OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES TONIGHT...DRIVING UP THROUGH MN ON
MONDAY. THERMODYNAMICS SOMEWHAT WEAK BUT EVIDENT...AND SOME
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE A BIGGER FACTOR...WITH A BRANCH NOSING
INTO SOUTHERN MN AND ANOTHER FOCUSED ACROSS MO/ILL. FOR
INSTABILITY...GFS AND NAM KEEP THEIR CAPE AXIS ACROSS IA
TONIGHT/MUCH OF MONDAY. EXPECT THE CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST/NORTH INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING...WITH A WEAKENING/STRETCHING LINE GRADUALLY MAKING IT TO
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. WITH TWO BRANCHES TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BE MORE FOCUSED WHERE THESE NOSE/MOVE. SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
BULK OR THE RAINS TO MOVE JUST WEST/SOUTHEAST...SORT OF DRYING OUT
AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD ACROSS THE SOUTH...LESSER COVERAGE/AMOUNTS NORTH OF
I-94.
THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GET A KICK NORTHEAST FROM ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING OVER THE PAC NW. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS TO TAKE THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THERE WILL BE AN AXIS OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING TO WORK ON...WITH A RIBBON OF PRECIPTABLE WATER
UPWARDS OF 1 1/4 INCHES. MEAGER AT BEST INSTABILITY...BUT ENOUGH
FOR A SCATTERED/ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT MOSTLY SOUTH OF I-90.
MESSY ENVIRONMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE
BOUNDARIES AND BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE LINGERING ACROSS
THE AREA...KEEPING A RAIN THREAT GOING INTO TUE EVENING. BETTER
CHANCES OVER EASTERN IA AND WI...CLOSER TO A WEST-EAST RUNNING WARM
FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. GFS/NAM BUILD AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTH...DEPENDING ON SOME CLEARING IN THE SKY
COVER. A THUNDER THREAT WILL CONTINUE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TUE NIGHT...AND THEN ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED/WED NIGHT. ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD
FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LEADING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING CAN BE REALIZED BETWEEN THE EXITING
TUE SYSTEM AND THIS APPROACHING ONE...GFS SUGGESTS UPWARDS OF 1000+
J/KG OF SBCAPE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BETTER/DEEPER SHEAR LIES POST THE FRONT...DISPLACED FROM THE
BEST INSTABILITY. THAT SAID...ENOUGH OVERLAP FOR THE MOMENT THAT
SOME STRONGER-POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ITS A PERIOD
THAT BEARS WATCHING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
THE WARM FRONT HAS PROGRESSED INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING.
ONE AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WAS
PROGRESSING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND WILL STAY
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION WAS OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WAS TIED CLOSELY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EASTERN WYOMING. THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALMOST DUE
NORTH AND IS HANDLED WELL BY THE 09.00Z CR-NAM NEST AND 09.03Z
HRRR WHICH TAKE THIS ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT.
THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN BETWEEN WITH LITTLE OR NO FORCING TO
PRODUCE ANY RAIN. THE HRRR TRIES TO KEEP SOME OF THE MISSOURI
ACTIVITY ALIVE AND BRINGS IN MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
BY MID MORNING AND WILL MAINTAIN THE VCSH FOR THIS AT KLSE AND
TAKE KRST DOWN TO JUST A VCSH AS WELL. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND WITH A
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD SEE SOUTHEAST GUSTS IN THE 25
TO 30 KNOT RANGE FOR BOTH SITES. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO IOWA MONDAY EVENING AND THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES A LITTLE BIT INTO THE AREA. WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THERE SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP. THE CR NAM-NEST DOES NOT SHOW MUCH COVERAGE WITH THESE
SHOWERS...AGAIN KEEPING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST AND
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL JUST INCLUDE A VCSH FOR BOTH
SITES FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
317 AM PDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER NW CA WILL BRING A WARMING TREND
INLAND AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AT THE COAST THROUGH MID
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW
FRIDAY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO NW CA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXISTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PAC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH
MID WEEK WHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERS AROUND 150W AND 40N.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OFFSHORE NW CA SHOULD SEE OFFSHORE FLOW AND
DECREASING MARINE STRATUS EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN SUNSHINE COASTAL MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO RISE
A BIT GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ON WED HOWEVER
SOME SEMBLENCE OF DAYTIME NW WINDS SHOULD KEEP THEM FROM FROM GETTING
TOO MUCH HIGHER. MEANWHILE INLAND AREAS SHOULD WARM TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
COAST THURSDAY...THEN GET PULLED NORTH EASTWARD INTO THE MAIN JET
STREAM FRIDAY. COASTAL STRATUS SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN WARM
THURSDAY...THEN SEE COOLING FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS
START TO DROP. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE COMING TOGETHER A BIT MORE FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ASHORE SATURDAY. THE GFS
PUSHES IT INLAND OVER WASHINGTON STATE. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF
DROPPED IT RIGHT ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA...BUT LATEST RUN FROM 12Z IS
MOVING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS. WILL MAINTAIN VERY LOW END CHANCE
POPS MAINLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
5-WAVE FROM THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. ST/JT
&&
.AVIATION...STRATUS HAS BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS TO MUCH
OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING INCLUDING HUMBOLDT BAY
AND THE RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CLOUDS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SHOULD ERODE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE MOST OF THE
MENDOCINO COAST MAY WAKE UP TO BLUE SKIES. LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL
HELP CLEAR OUT THE COAST NORTH OF THE CAPE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
THE HUMBOLDT BAY AREA TO BE THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT TODAY. THIS COULD
BE BY THE LATE MORNING HOWEVER STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS COULD STICK INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD AND GENERATES OFFSHORE
FLOW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. KML
&&
.MARINE...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND STEEP NORTHERLY SEAS THROUGH
MONDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS...WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TODAY. TIGHT NORTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST
TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. IN ADDITION, A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE COMBINED SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN THE TIGHT
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH MONDAY. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER WATERS. BY TUESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4 TO 5 FT STARTING
ON WEDNESDAY. THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH START OF THE WEEKEND. UTILIZE HRRR IN THE NEAR TERM THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION TO USING A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.
/RCL
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
953 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL PUSH THIS
FRONT SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN, A COLD FRONT,
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE MID-MORNING UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES THIS MORNING DUE TO CURRENT READINGS. ALSO ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES OVER DELMARVA...ALTHO STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY
WILL BE COOLER THAN AREAS FARTHER NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD
OVERSPREAD MOST OF DELMARVA BY MID DAY. THE RAP AND HRRR STILL
SHOW THE PRECIP TENDING TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
LOWERED POPS A LITTLE BUT STILL KEEPING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR A
WHILE THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISSCUSSION BELOW...
A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO VIRGINIA TODAY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL SQUEEZED OUT ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA REGION. ANY QPF LOOKS TO BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH, IF
ANYTHING RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS HAVE TRENDED DRIER. AS A RESULT,
POPS AND QPF WERE TRIMMED BACK A TOUCH WITH THE 6:30 AM UPDATE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
DRIER AIR INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE END RESULT WILL BE
TOTALLY DIFFERENT DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. DELMARVA WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE MID 60`S. ON THE
OTHER HAND, REGIONS FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD SHOULD SEE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR QUICK RISES OF TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY BUST WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA. 925 MB MODELED TEMPERATURES
INDICATE THE NAM/ECMWF 2M TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE RESPECTIVE
MOS GUIDANCE SHOULD BE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO COOL WITH THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70`S.
SEVERAL FEATURES ON LOCAL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND
GUSTS TO REACH 20-25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. MIXING
WILL LIKELY LOWER RH VALUES FROM PHILADELPHIA AND POINTS TO THE
NORTH AS WELL, PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE WITH THE FEATURES IN OUR REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE. THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TOWARD SUNRISE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBILE TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY, THIS TIME ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAV/MET
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUE HAS TAKEN A BIT OF A TURN TWD THE MORE DREARY THIS CYCLE. A WM
FRONT, EXTENDING EWD FROM LOW PRES IN THE PLAINS, WILL BE OVER
THE AREA. PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE DURG THE AFTN HOURS. WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AN E TO NE FLOW, TEMPS ARE COOLER THAN
PREV FCSTS. WHILE NOT AS BAD AS A FEW DAYS LAST WEEK, TUE NOW
LOOKS TO NOT BE PLEASANT AT ALL.
HIGH PRES RE-EXERTS ITSELF IN ERN CANADA TUE NIGHT AND PUSHES THE
FRONT SWD AND DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EITHER TUE NIGHT OR WED THRU
THU. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT TIMING. THE GFS KEEPS
SOME LINGERING LIGHT QPF OVER SRN AREAS TUE EVE. THE ECMWF, KEEPS
ITS PRECIP FURTHER N EARLIER TUE EVE, THEN OVER THE S TUE NIGHT,
BUT IT IS A MORE ROBUST AREA. FOR NOW, WILL JUST HOLD SOME LOW
POPS.
LOW PRES THEN MOVES ACRS SRN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THU AND CROSS THE AREA
ON FRI. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFS HERE AS WELL. THE GFS HAS RAIN
IN THE WRN AREAS AS ERLY AS THU EVE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. THE ECMWF DOESN`T HAVE ANY RAIN BEFORE FIR MRNG
AND PSBLY EVEN FRI AFTN IN THE E. THE ECMWF IS OFTEN TOO SLOW WITH
CFP, SO HAVE SHADED IN THE GFS DIRECTION, BUT REGARDLESS, THERE
WILL BE SOME PRECIP ON FRI. THE FRONT MOVES THRU THE REGION AND
CLEARS THE COAST FRI EVE.
BOTH THE EC AND GFS THEN BRING SOME INSTABILITY SHWRS THRU ON SAT
BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN ON SUN.
AFTER A MUCH BELOW NRML TEMP DAY ON TUE, TEMPS WILL BE AOA NRML
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, THEY RETURN TO NR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NRML
BEHIND THE CDFNT OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A HIGH BROKEN
DECK WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AROUND 20,000 FEET AND GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 7,000 FEET LATE
TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY FOR KILG AND KMIV.
OUTLOOK...
TUE THRU THU...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHRA ACROSS TUE/TUE NIGHT CUD BRING
LWR CIGS. LOW CONFIDENCE
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA PSBL WITH CFP. LOWER
VSBYS/CIGS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA. MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. BOTH THE MODELED 925 MB WINDS
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TOP WINDS OF AROUND 25 KNOTS ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. SINCE WIND GUSTS ARE NOT TO EXCEED 25 KNOTS,
CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN NORMAL FOR AN ADVISORY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME CONSULTATION WITH STATE PARTNERS INDICATES FUELS MAY STILL
BE TOO MOIST FOR ANY INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY.
RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP TO AROUND 30% IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY IN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE OUT OF
WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. COORDINATION IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING WITH
STATE PARTNERS ON A POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THAT HINGES ON THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>453.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...AMC/GAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
609 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL PUSH THIS
FRONT SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN, A COLD FRONT,
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME PATCHY FROST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN LOCALIZED SPOTS IN
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND INTERIOR OCEAN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
SEVERAL MESONET STATIONS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 30`S WITH LIGHT
WINDS. ANY WIDELY PATCHY FROST SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.
A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO VIRGINIA TODAY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL SQUEEZED OUT ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA REGION. ANY QPF LOOKS TO BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH, IF
ANYTHING RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS HAVE TRENDED DRIER. AS A RESULT,
POPS AND QPF WERE TRIMMED BACK A TOUCH WITH THE 6:30 AM UPDATE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
DRIER AIR INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE END RESULT WILL BE
TOTALLY DIFFERENT DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. DELMARVA WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE MID 60`S. ON THE
OTHER HAND, REGIONS FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD SHOULD SEE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR QUICK RISES OF TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY BUST WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA. 925 MB MODELED TEMPERATURES
INDICATE THE NAM/ECMWF 2M TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE RESPECTIVE
MOS GUIDANCE SHOULD BE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO COOL WITH THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70`S. SEVERAL FEATURES ON LOCAL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 20-25 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. MIXING WILL LIKELY LOWER RH VALUES
FROM PHILADELPHIA AND POINTS TO THE NORTH AS WELL, PLEASE SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE WITH THE FEATURES IN OUR REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE. THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TOWARD SUNRISE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBILE TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY, THIS TIME ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAV/MET
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUE HAS TAKEN A BIT OF A TURN TWD THE MORE DREARY THIS CYCLE. A WM
FRONT, EXTENDING EWD FROM LOW PRES IN THE PLAINS, WILL BE OVER
THE AREA. PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE DURG THE AFTN HOURS. WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AN E TO NE FLOW, TEMPS ARE COOLER THAN
PREV FCSTS. WHILE NOT AS BAD AS A FEW DAYS LAST WEEK, TUE NOW
LOOKS TO NOT BE PLEASANT AT ALL.
HIGH PRES RE-EXERTS ITSELF IN ERN CANADA TUE NIGHT AND PUSHES THE
FRONT SWD AND DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EITHER TUE NIGHT OR WED THRU
THU. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT TIMING. THE GFS KEEPS
SOME LINGERING LIGHT QPF OVER SRN AREAS TUE EVE. THE ECMWF, KEEPS
ITS PRECIP FURTHER N EARLIER TUE EVE, THEN OVER THE S TUE NIGHT,
BUT IT IS A MORE ROBUST AREA. FOR NOW, WILL JUST HOLD SOME LOW
POPS.
LOW PRES THEN MOVES ACRS SRN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THU AND CROSS THE AREA
ON FRI. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFS HERE AS WELL. THE GFS HAS RAIN
IN THE WRN AREAS AS ERLY AS THU EVE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. THE ECMWF DOESN`T HAVE ANY RAIN BEFORE FIR MRNG
AND PSBLY EVEN FRI AFTN IN THE E. THE ECMWF IS OFTEN TOO SLOW WITH
CFP, SO HAVE SHADED IN THE GFS DIRECTION, BUT REGARDLESS, THERE
WILL BE SOME PRECIP ON FRI. THE FRONT MOVES THRU THE REGION AND
CLEARS THE COAST FRI EVE.
BOTH THE EC AND GFS THEN BRING SOME INSTABILITY SHWRS THRU ON SAT
BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN ON SUN.
AFTER A MUCH BELOW NRML TEMP DAY ON TUE, TEMPS WILL BE AOA NRML
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, THEY RETURN TO NR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NRML
BEHIND THE CDFNT OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A HIGH BROKEN
DECK WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AROUND 20,000 FEET AND GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 7,000 FEET LATE
TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY FOR KILG AND KMIV.
OUTLOOK...
TUE THRU THU...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHRA ACROSS TUE/TUE NIGHT CUD BRING
LWR CIGS. LOW CONFIDENCE
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA PSBL WITH CFP. LOWER
VSBYS/CIGS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA. MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. BOTH THE MODELED 925 MB WINDS
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TOP WINDS OF AROUND 25 KNOTS ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. SINCE WIND GUSTS ARE NOT TO EXCEED 25 KNOTS,
CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN NORMAL FOR AN ADVISORY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP TO AROUND 30% IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY IN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WINDS WILL ALSO
BE OUT OF WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS FROM 20-25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. COORDINATION IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING
WITH STATE PARTNERS ON A POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THAT HINGES ON THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ450>453.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1001 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH THE HRRR STILL TRIES TO BRING IN SOME LIGHT SHRA ACTIVITY
LATER TODAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN TOO LOW FOR
ANY MENTIONABLE PRECIP. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST AND
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE GRIDS AT THIS POINT.
&&
DEESE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
..UPDATED DUE TO AVIATION FORECAST...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY BUT WITH THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING EAST...INCREASED CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA NOW
WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH
ACROSS MS/AL AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP TO MAINLY NORTH
GA TUESDAY. OR NOW ONLY LOOKING AT A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITIES ARE
FAIRLY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
01
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL KEEP A RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CWA...MAINLY NORTH GA...ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE IN
BRINGING A STRONG SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTH GA. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY ENDING
THE PRECIP FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY ACROSS THE
CWA. A ZONAL FLOW RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TO NORTH GA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
17
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FROM THE 06Z TAF SET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD BUT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE WEST STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
IN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY OUT OF THE W TO SW
AND MAINLY 10KT OR LESS. WILL SEE SOME GUST TO 15KT THIS
AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THIS TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO N GA TUESDAY
MORNING BUT THEY SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL KEEP
THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS
01
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 84 61 83 63 / 0 5 10 10
ATLANTA 82 63 82 66 / 0 5 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 78 57 78 59 / 0 5 30 30
CARTERSVILLE 81 60 82 64 / 0 5 30 20
COLUMBUS 83 63 83 65 / 0 5 10 10
GAINESVILLE 81 62 81 64 / 0 5 20 20
MACON 85 62 85 63 / 0 0 5 10
ROME 80 59 82 64 / 0 10 30 20
PEACHTREE CITY 81 59 82 62 / 0 5 10 10
VIDALIA 88 65 85 66 / 0 5 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
950 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ALONG I-70 IN MO
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. A SHORT
WAVE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN IA WHICH
HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN IA AND A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE DVN CWA. CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE ONLY IN THE
50S IN THE CWA EXCEPT OUR FAR SOUTH WHICH WAS AROUND 60.
DIFFICULT FORECAST AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP INSTABILITY MINIMAL AS
THE LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGEST STRATUS ALL DAY LONG. A STRONGER SHORT
WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN OK SHOULD IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS
IN MO WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED...AND WHERE THE BETTER
CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST. THIS AREA OF STORMS SHOULD
STRATIFY OUT AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE DVN CWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE
THREAT ESPECIALLY OUR FAR SOUTH DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE AND IF ANY BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST CAN OCCUR. AT THIS
TIME THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW IN THE DVN CWA BUT WILL MONITOR
CLOUD TRENDS AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
DIFFICULT FORECAST REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THIS SHIFT AS
CURRENT TRENDS IN THE PRECIP HAVE NOT BEEN IDENTIFIED BY MANY
MODELS. HAVE SCALED BACK THE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. DEVELOPMENT DOWN ALONG THE WARM
ADVECTION WING HAS STARTED TO ENTER THE CWA. CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA HAS FORMED ON A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THINK THAT BY THE TIME THIS WAVE LIGHTS UP CONVECTION WELL INTO US
THE FORCING WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. RIGHT NOW MY GUT TELLS ME
THAT WE WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
NEXT...STRONGER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE
IN SOLUTIONS...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED OVER THE
MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THESE STORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE
EAST ON AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT. THE VORT MAX LEADING TO THESE
STORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL
GRAVITY WAVES HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED ON RADAR THIS MORNING. THESE
GRAVITY WAVES AND MID LEVEL FORCING WILL LIKELY DICTATE WEATHER
THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SHORT WAVE SWINGING NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW
SHOULD CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS WOULD BE HIGH IF IT WASN`T FOR
THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.
CONVECTION LINGERING FROM MOTHERS DAY WAS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA. GUIDANCE...INCLUDING RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR TRY TO
PUSH THIS NORTH AND MISS OUR AREA. I`M HAVING A HARD TIME SEEING
THIS HAPPENING AS A WARM ADVECTION WING IS MOVING NORTH. MOISTURE
POOLING ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IA WOULD SUPPORT THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS TO MOVE EAST INSTEAD OF NORTHEAST. WHAT MY GUT
TELLS ME IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR AREA
THROUGH MID-MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS COULD BE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING INTO VERY EARLIER AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THIS WOULD
AFFECT THE FORECAST CONDITIONS LATER TODAY.
THINK ONE OF TWO THINGS IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. 1. DECAYING
CONVECTION WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN FORCING MOVING NORTH.
A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WOULD
BE LOW IN THIS SCENARIO. 2. THE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST DECAYS FASTER
THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING SO THAT MORE INSTABILITY CAN FORM. IF
THIS IS THE CASE...STRONGER STORMS AND EVEN SEVERE WEATHER COULD
BE POSSIBLE. A LOW END RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. AS FOR A TORNADO THREAT...WITH THE
WARM FRONT AND BACKED SFC WINDS...THINK THAT THERE IS A LOW END
CHANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. IF A TORNADO
WERE TO FORM IT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND LIKELY FROM A MULTICELL
STORM. I DO NOT HAVE A FIRM GUT FEELING ON EITHER OF THESE
SCENARIOS. THIS MEANS THAT WE NEED TO WATCH THIS MORNING PLAY OUT
BEFORE WE HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF THIS EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A COMMON THEME
WITH BOTH OF THESES SCENARIOS ARE THAT OFBS MAY BE PRESENT AFTER
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. OBVIOUSLY THESE COULD SERVE AS FOCI FOR
TRAINING OF STORMS AND POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF WE COULD BUILD SOME SBCAPE. ALL MODELS ARE
LOW ON SBCAPE...BUT WITH TONIGHTS CONVECTION ITS ANYONES GAME.
AS FOR THE RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
AREAS TODAY COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN BY 12Z TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME ITS HARD FOR ME TO NAIL DOWN AN AREA WHERE THIS MIGHT
OCCUR WITH SO MUCH OF TODAY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS THIS
MORNING. IF I HAD TO CHOOSE AN AREA...PROXIMITY TO THE SFC WARM
FRONT WOULD LIKELY DELINEATE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FLOODING
WOULD BE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. SUFFICE
IT TO SAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH
FORECAST PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN TO LIFT
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING DECREASING TRENDS
TO MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE MODULATED BY PRECIP AND CLOUDS... WITH THERMAL PARAMETERS
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE WIDESPREAD MID 70S UNDER MORE PROLONGED SOLAR
INSOLATION BUT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ANTICIPATE PTCLDY PERIODS AT
BEST AND SO OPTED WITH BLEND RANGING FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO MID 70S
SOUTH. TUESDAY NIGHT... SHOULD BRING ABOUT QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
WITH INCOMING SUBSIDENCE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE. WE MAY HAVE SOME FOG POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT IN
PORTIONS OF CWA WITH WET GROUND AND GIVEN WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH
BOUNDARY IN VICINITY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE QUIET PERIOD PERSISTS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
DEPARTING TROUGH AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ENHANCED BY DIFFERENTIAL CVA AHEAD OF
NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ROTATING UNDER H5 LOW TRACKING FROM ND TO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z THURSDAY. TEMPS TOPPING IN THE 80S AND
DEWPTS IN THE 60S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE CAPE OF 1500-2500
J/KG. A FEW MODELS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-45 KTS
WHICH ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-
8.5 C/KM SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING WITH SOME RISK OF LONG LIVED MULTICELL CLUSTER(S)
AND/OR A FEW SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A
FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE IN THIS MODERATE/STRONG KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... COOLER WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY POST
FRONTAL USHERED IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION THURSDAY MID AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET WITH
SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT (POSSIBLY
30S IN SHELTERED AREAS NORTH WHERE WINDS DIMINISH ALLOWING DECOUPLING
OF BL) WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF INCOMING
WEAK SUBSIDENCE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... CONTINUED COOL DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND COMPLIMENTS
OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT HARBORING MAIN THRUST OF COLD ADVECTION. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY PM WITH GUSTY WINDS IN STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE REGIME.
HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY DROP INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ON SATURDAY WITH
850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -1C TO -4C 12Z SATURDAY RECOVERING TO AROUND
0C BY 00Z SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMP TECHNIQUE AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL INVERSION
SUGGEST AT LEAST MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGS FOR LOWS SUNDAY AM... WITH POTENTIAL
TO BE COLDER INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTH WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FROST RISK IN
SHELTERED OR LOW LYING AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST TODAY AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO CIGS SHIFTING BETWEEN IFR...MVFR AND
VFR THIS MORNING UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT MOVES NORTH AND WE SEE MORE
IFR CIGS LATER THIS AM AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HEATING COULD CAUSE
SOME OF THESE CIGS TO RISE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVERTISING THAT
UNTIL THAT IS ACTUALLY SEEN IN THE OBS. THINK ALL OF THE TAF SITES
WILL SEE THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE ADDED
VCTS. SPECIFIC TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ELUSIVE AT THIS
TIME. LATER FORECASTS SHOULD REFINE THE TIMING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
648 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
DIFFICULT FORECAST REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THIS SHIFT AS
CURRENT TRENDS IN THE PRECIP HAVE NOT BEEN IDENTIFIED BY MANY
MODELS. HAVE SCALED BACK THE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. DEVELOPMENT DOWN ALONG THE WARM
ADVECTION WING HAS STARTED TO ENTER THE CWA. CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA HAS FORMED ON A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THINK THAT BY THE TIME THIS WAVE LIGHTS UP CONVECTION WELL INTO US
THE FORCING WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. RIGHT NOW MY GUT TELLS ME
THAT WE WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
NEXT...STRONGER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE
IN SOLUTIONS...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED OVER THE
MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THESE STORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE
EAST ON AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT. THE VORT MAX LEADING TO THESE
STORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL
GRAVITY WAVES HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED ON RADAR THIS MORNING. THESE
GRAVITY WAVES AND MID LEVEL FORCING WILL LIKELY DICTATE WEATHER
THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SHORT WAVE SWINGING NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW
SHOULD CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS WOULD BE HIGH IF IT WASN`T FOR
THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.
CONVECTION LINGERING FROM MOTHERS DAY WAS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA. GUIDANCE...INCLUDING RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR TRY TO
PUSH THIS NORTH AND MISS OUR AREA. I`M HAVING A HARD TIME SEEING
THIS HAPPENING AS A WARM ADVECTION WING IS MOVING NORTH. MOISTURE
POOLING ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IA WOULD SUPPORT THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS TO MOVE EAST INSTEAD OF NORTHEAST. WHAT MY GUT
TELLS ME IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR AREA
THROUGH MID-MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS COULD BE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING INTO VERY EARLIER AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THIS WOULD
AFFECT THE FORECAST CONDITIONS LATER TODAY.
THINK ONE OF TWO THINGS IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. 1. DECAYING
CONVECTION WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN FORCING MOVING NORTH.
A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WOULD
BE LOW IN THIS SCENARIO. 2. THE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST DECAYS FASTER
THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING SO THAT MORE INSTABILITY CAN FORM. IF
THIS IS THE CASE...STRONGER STORMS AND EVEN SEVERE WEATHER COULD
BE POSSIBLE. A LOW END RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. AS FOR A TORNADO THREAT...WITH THE
WARM FRONT AND BACKED SFC WINDS...THINK THAT THERE IS A LOW END
CHANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. IF A TORNADO
WERE TO FORM IT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND LIKELY FROM A MULTICELL
STORM. I DO NOT HAVE A FIRM GUT FEELING ON EITHER OF THESE
SCENARIOS. THIS MEANS THAT WE NEED TO WATCH THIS MORNING PLAY OUT
BEFORE WE HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF THIS EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A COMMON THEME
WITH BOTH OF THESES SCENARIOS ARE THAT OFBS MAY BE PRESENT AFTER
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. OBVIOUSLY THESE COULD SERVE AS FOCI FOR
TRAINING OF STORMS AND POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF WE COULD BUILD SOME SBCAPE. ALL MODELS ARE
LOW ON SBCAPE...BUT WITH TONIGHTS CONVECTION ITS ANYONES GAME.
AS FOR THE RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
AREAS TODAY COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN BY 12Z TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME ITS HARD FOR ME TO NAIL DOWN AN AREA WHERE THIS MIGHT
OCCUR WITH SO MUCH OF TODAY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS THIS
MORNING. IF I HAD TO CHOOSE AN AREA...PROXIMITY TO THE SFC WARM
FRONT WOULD LIKELY DELINEATE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FLOODING
WOULD BE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. SUFFICE
IT TO SAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH
FORECAST PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN TO LIFT
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING DECREASING TRENDS
TO MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE MODULATED BY PRECIP AND CLOUDS... WITH THERMAL PARAMETERS
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE WIDESPREAD MID 70S UNDER MORE PROLONGED SOLAR
INSOLATION BUT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ANTICIPATE PTCLDY PERIODS AT
BEST AND SO OPTED WITH BLEND RANGING FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO MID 70S
SOUTH. TUESDAY NIGHT... SHOULD BRING ABOUT QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
WITH INCOMING SUBSIDENCE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE. WE MAY HAVE SOME FOG POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT IN
PORTIONS OF CWA WITH WET GROUND AND GIVEN WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH
BOUNDARY IN VICINITY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE QUIET PERIOD PERSISTS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
DEPARTING TROUGH AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ENHANCED BY DIFFERENTIAL CVA AHEAD OF
NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ROTATING UNDER H5 LOW TRACKING FROM ND TO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z THURSDAY. TEMPS TOPPING IN THE 80S AND
DEWPTS IN THE 60S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE CAPE OF 1500-2500
J/KG. A FEW MODELS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-45 KTS
WHICH ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-
8.5 C/KM SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING WITH SOME RISK OF LONG LIVED MULTICELL CLUSTER(S)
AND/OR A FEW SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A
FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE IN THIS MODERATE/STRONG KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... COOLER WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY POST
FRONTAL USHERED IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION THURSDAY MID AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET WITH
SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT (POSSIBLY
30S IN SHELTERED AREAS NORTH WHERE WINDS DIMINISH ALLOWING DECOUPLING
OF BL) WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF INCOMING
WEAK SUBSIDENCE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... CONTINUED COOL DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND COMPLIMENTS
OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT HARBORING MAIN THRUST OF COLD ADVECTION. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY PM WITH GUSTY WINDS IN STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE REGIME.
HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY DROP INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ON SATURDAY WITH
850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -1C TO -4C 12Z SATURDAY RECOVERING TO AROUND
0C BY 00Z SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMP TECHNIQUE AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL INVERSION
SUGGEST AT LEAST MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGS FOR LOWS SUNDAY AM... WITH POTENTIAL
TO BE COLDER INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTH WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FROST RISK IN
SHELTERED OR LOW LYING AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST TODAY AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO CIGS SHIFTING BETWEEN IFR...MVFR AND
VFR THIS MORNING UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT MOVES NORTH AND WE SEE MORE
IFR CIGS LATER THIS AM AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HEATING COULD CAUSE
SOME OF THESE CIGS TO RISE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVERTISING THAT
UNTIL THAT IS ACTUALLY SEEN IN THE OBS. THINK ALL OF THE TAF SITES
WILL SEE THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE ADDED
VCTS. SPECIFIC TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ELUSIVE AT THIS
TIME. LATER FORECASTS SHOULD REFINE THE TIMING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1059 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
BLENDED MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITH NO SUBSTANTIVE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES IN TODAY AS VERY LIGHT
RETURNS ARE SEEN ON RADAR AND DRIFTING THIS WAY. THE KY MESONET
AND OTHER OBS INDICATE NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF A HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN FROM THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WX FOR THIS.
ALSO...TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING
BACK NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS PUSHING LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH AND OUT OF THE CWA...BUT LEAVING PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND...LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHOWERS. A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE HAS
SET UP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MANY LOW SPOTS IN
THE LOWER 50S WHILE RIDGES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...VARY FROM THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST
PARTS OF THE AREA TO THE UPPER 40S IN NORTHEAST. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT ENERGY PACKETS CROSSING KENTUCKY IN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A PLAINS LOW OPENS UP AND WORKS NORTHEAST. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST WILL PIVOT JUST
NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY DRAGGING LOWER HEIGHTS AND ITS
CORE ENERGY THROUGH THE STATE. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A TAD
STRONGER WITH THIS EVOLUTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER...THE
DIFFERENCE DOES NOT AFFECT ITS SOLUTION MUCH AND IT WILL BE LEANED
TOWARD AS A HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL OPTION FOR THE TUESDAY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...A GENERAL MODEL BLEND...AND FAVORING OF THE
HRRR EARLY ON...GUIDED THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE SUNSHINE.
LOOK FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. A
STRAY SHOWER OR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS
HAPPENS...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING MAINLY JUST NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN NEARER THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN AS THE EXPANSIVE SFC LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. FOR TUESDAY...EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE FIRMLY IN
THE LARGE SYSTEM/S WARM SECTOR. ACCORDINGLY...LOOK FOR INSTABILITY
TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY...FUELED BY INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. IN ADDITION...SOME WIND SHEER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL. IN FACT...SOME MCS
ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ALSO IMPACT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
SPC HAS OUTLINED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...
GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 75...FOR A SLIGHT RISK LATER TUESDAY.
THE REST OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
INITIALIZED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND FOR
MOST BASIC ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR RIDGE/VALLEY
TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS TO KEEP A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALBEIT
MOSTLY JUST SMALL CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES IN THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEP TROUGH TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH
WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING PIECES OF ENERGY TO
DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH EAST AND
FLATTEN OUT AS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS KENTUCKY RESUMES ALOFT BY MONDAY.
AT THE SFC...A SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THE FIRST LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WILL CROSS THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT LOW WILL CROSS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. RAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE BREIF PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA...ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND
VERY SHORT-LIVED. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED SMALL CHANCE FOR A
STRAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
750 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES IN TODAY AS VERY LIGHT
RETURNS ARE SEEN ON RADAR AND DRIFTING THIS WAY. THE KY MESONET
AND OTHER OBS INDICATE NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF A HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN FROM THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WX FOR THIS.
ALSO...TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING
BACK NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS PUSHING LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH AND OUT OF THE CWA...BUT LEAVING PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND...LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHOWERS. A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE HAS
SET UP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MANY LOW SPOTS IN
THE LOWER 50S WHILE RIDGES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...VARY FROM THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST
PARTS OF THE AREA TO THE UPPER 40S IN NORTHEAST. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT ENERGY PACKETS CROSSING KENTUCKY IN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A PLAINS LOW OPENS UP AND WORKS NORTHEAST. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST WILL PIVOT JUST
NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY DRAGGING LOWER HEIGHTS AND ITS
CORE ENERGY THROUGH THE STATE. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A TAD
STRONGER WITH THIS EVOLUTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER...THE
DIFFERENCE DOES NOT AFFECT ITS SOLUTION MUCH AND IT WILL BE LEANED
TOWARD AS A HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL OPTION FOR THE TUESDAY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...A GENERAL MODEL BLEND...AND FAVORING OF THE
HRRR EARLY ON...GUIDED THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE SUNSHINE.
LOOK FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. A
STRAY SHOWER OR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS
HAPPENS...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING MAINLY JUST NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN NEARER THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN AS THE EXPANSIVE SFC LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. FOR TUESDAY...EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE FIRMLY IN
THE LARGE SYSTEM/S WARM SECTOR. ACCORDINGLY...LOOK FOR INSTABILITY
TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY...FUELED BY INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. IN ADDITION...SOME WIND SHEER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL. IN FACT...SOME MCS
ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ALSO IMPACT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
SPC HAS OUTLINED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...
GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 75...FOR A SLIGHT RISK LATER TUESDAY.
THE REST OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
INITIALIZED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND FOR
MOST BASIC ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR RIDGE/VALLEY
TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS TO KEEP A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALBEIT
MOSTLY JUST SMALL CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES IN THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEP TROUGH TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH
WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING PIECES OF ENERGY TO
DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH EAST AND
FLATTEN OUT AS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS KENTUCKY RESUMES ALOFT BY MONDAY.
AT THE SFC...A SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THE FIRST LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WILL CROSS THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT LOW WILL CROSS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. RAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE BREIF PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA...ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND
VERY SHORT-LIVED. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED SMALL CHANCE FOR A
STRAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1102 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...WINDY AFTERNOON AHEAD AS AREA REMAINS BETWEEN
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED
SOMEWHAT AS WAKE LOW ADVANCES EAST FROM COASTAL TEXAS.
OTHERWISE...RADAR SHOWING NO MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES
INLAND...POSSIBLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
THIS ACTIVITY ALIGNED ALONG A VORT LOBE AND EMBEDDED VORT MAXIMA.
ACTIVITY PROGGED TO ADVANCE EAST BY THE HRRR WITH LITTLE IF ANY
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING MID-TEXAS DRYLINE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
SATELLITE SHOWING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...WEATHER DEPICTION ANALYSIS SHOWS LOWER CLOUDS
RATHER SPARSE AT THE MOMENT. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...MVFR CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. EVENTUALLY BY 01Z...ALL TAF
SITES WILL BE MVFR. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER AREA THIS MORNING
BUT RAIN CHANCES LOOKING SPARSE AS MOISTURE SOUNDING REMAINS ON THE
LOWER SIDE THIS MORNING AND IN LINE WITH LAST EVENING SOUNDING RUN.
DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FL MAINTAINING A SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND
MAINTAINS A GOOD GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE NRN PLAINS WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ROUNDING IT...THE MOST A SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH IS
CROSSING THE 4-CORNERS REGION ATTM. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RETURNS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE WRN
ZONES...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ON 00Z KLCH SOUNDING
EXPECT LITTLE OF THE LIGHTER RETURNS TO ACTUALLY BE REACHING THE
GROUND. A FEW BURSTS OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ARE NOTED UPSTREAM
AND WITHIN HERE IS WHERE SOME RAIN IS FALLING PER SFC OBS.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE
FORECAST AREA THANKS TO THE COMBO OF INCREASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES WHERE THE MID-LEVEL SPEED
MAX AND AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET ARE PROGGED TO MOST IMPACT...
WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE OPENS
UP AND LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION.
ALSO OF INTEREST TODAY IS THE INHERITED WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SRN
1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST WIND PROGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 20 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30. THEREFORE THE ADVISORY
HAS BEEN LEFT UNCHANGED ATTM. THE DAYSHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS NORTH OF THE ADVISORY IN CASE IT NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED
SPATIALLY LATER TODAY TO ACCOUNT.
AFTER ANOTHER SLIM SHOT AT PRECIP ON TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...NEXT REASONABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS DEEP TROFFING DEVELOPS OVER THE CNTL
CONUS AND IN TURN PULLS A COOL FRONT SWD INTO THE AREA. THEREAFTER
A BRIEF SHOT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND THE INTRUSION OF SOME DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...
MAINTAINED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MUCH OF TODAY GIVEN SRLY FLOW STILL EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 83 72 86 70 / 20 20 20 10
LCH 81 72 82 71 / 30 20 10 10
LFT 81 73 83 72 / 20 20 10 10
BPT 82 72 84 71 / 40 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ041>045-
052>055-073-074.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ215-216.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-
455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR GMZ455-475.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-470-472.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ430-432-435.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
656 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG CLOSED VORTEX SWINGING
FROM QC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TO THE WEST, CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY
PULLING EAST ACROSS THE TN VLY AND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW LOW LEVEL QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM SOUTHEAST NE, ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHERN NC....TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT.
NOTING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...INCLUDING SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER...ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL NC
COASTAL PLAIN. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE, SOME SHOWERS JUST STARTING TO SPILL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRE-FRONTAL WAA.
ONGOING SHRAS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY JUST AFTER DAYBREAK, LEAVING
SEVERAL SUBTLE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE EVENTUAL
ORIENTATION OF THOSE BOUNDARIES WILL EVENTUALLY DETERMINE LOCATION
OF GREATEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FOR TODAY, WE`LL BE OFF TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY START ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KY/NC WILL LIFT NORTH SLIGHTLY, WITH
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR AREA GETTING WARM SECTORED. 00Z/9
PROBABILISTIC MODELS AND CAMS, INCLUDING THE LAST FEW ITERATIONS
OF THE HIGH-RES HRRR AND SPC WRF ALL INDICATE STRONG SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
ACCORDINGLY, HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FAR NRN TIER.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO
EXACT LOCATION OF AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. HIGHS
70-75 WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S SOUTH
WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. WAA AT
H85 AHEAD OF IT RESULTS IN CHC SHOWERS MOST AREAS. LOWS IN THE
L-M50S NORTH...U50S-L60S SOUTH.
FRONT PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION TUES THROUGH WED. GIVEN
A NW FLOW AND MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...KEPT CHC POPS IN FCST
EACH DAY. SEVERAL WAVES ALONG THE BNDRY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
TIME PCPN. MAINTAINING CHC POPS EACH PERIOD WITH DIURNAL THUNDER
CHCS. AGAIN...HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON BNDRY LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
SUN. DID DROP TEMPS 1-2 CATEGORIES ACROSS THE FAR NE (MD EASTERN
SHORE) WITH COOL SECTOR NE FLOW APPEARING LKLY TO SET UP FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S FAR NE...70-75 ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ZONES...U70S- L80S IN AREAS ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
THE SOUTH. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE N50S- L60S.
BOUNDARY WILL BISECT THE LOCAL AREA FROM NW TO SE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE IN THE DAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WED AFTN/EVE. GIVEN PROGGED LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY, HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC POP OVER THE NE COAST, WITH
A HIGH END CHC POP IN PLACE WELL INLAND TO I-95. MUCH TOO EARLY
TO GET INTO DETAILS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH SO MUCH SUBJECT TO
CHANGE, BUT WITH 0-6 BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KT AND W/BROAD SCALE
FORCING MECHANISM PRESENT, WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SEVERE
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY OVER THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS AGAIN VARIABLE
WITH EXACT BOUNDARY LOCATION...BUT WILL RANGE FROM 70S TO L80S
FAR SW TO U60S/L70S FAR NE ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR PCPN AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY WILL STILL BE IN THE
VICINITY WED NGT/THU...LEADING TO A 30-50% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS.
HI TEMPS THU WILL RANGE FM THE MID 70S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO
THE LO 80S SRN AREAS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE W THU
NGT...AND CROSSES THE AREA BY FRI. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
(50% POPS) WITH THIS FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S FRI. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
LEADING TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH HI TEMPS STILL MAINLY IN
THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NC. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 10K FT AGL. WINDS CALM TO LIGHT
OUT OF THE S-SE. THE FRONT LIFTS NWD NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...BECOMING BKN-LOCALLY OVC 8-12K FT AGL.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MID/LATE MORNING
KSBY...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT...BUT
DIRECTIONS VARY FROM S-SE TO NE DEPENDING ON THE FRONTAL
PLACEMENT.
THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION THRU
MID WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS EACH DAY. LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. THE RESULT IS LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS
2-3 FT. A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NC SLOWLY DRIFTS NWD OVER
THE WATERS TODAY...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY BTWN NELY AND
SWLY...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. WAVES 1-2 FT AND
SEAS2-3 FT. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT FRI...WITH SLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS. A COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1031 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WL NOT MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA...COORDINATED WITH
THE MI DNR TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR THE W HALF OF UPR MI
TO HIGHLIGHT A MORE ELEVATED FIRE WX POTENTIAL IN THAT AREA DUE TO
SHARPER PRES GRADIENT THAT WL SUPPORT SE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ON
THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES RDG AXIS OVER ERN UPR MI. WITH MIN RH
EXPECTED TO DIP AS LO AS ABOUT 20 PCT BEFORE GREENUP AND MAX TEMPS
AT LEAST APRCH 70...CONDITIONS IN THAT AREA WOULD ALLOW WILDFIRES TO
SPREAD. THE 12Z APX RAOB SHOWS A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE THAT WL ALSO
ALLOW MIN RH OVER THE E HALF OF UPR MI TO DROP TOWARD 20 PCT...BUT
WEAKER PRES GRADIENT THERE WL NOT ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS MUCH MORE
THAN 10-12 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO MANITOBA AND A TROUGH OVER QUEBEC RESULTING IN CONFLUENT
NW MID/UPPER LEVEL THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO LOWER MI.
WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...IR LOOP SHOWED CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS UPPER MI.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT AS THE SFC RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...E TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST UPPER MI.
THE SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE 3C TO 7C RANGE...TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S INTERIOR WEST AND TO AROUND 60 OVER THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL PREVAIL DOWNWIND OF ERLY FLOW OFF
THE GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS...DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 20 TO 25
PERCENT...ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS ARE EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...DESPITE THE DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BOUNDARY
LAYER SE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING
TO KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF BELOW THE UPPER 30S. LOW TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WILL ARE EXPECTED NEAR IWD AND ONTONAGON
WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CONCERN AT LEAST INITIALLY THIS WEEK. UPPER
RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUE FORECAST TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AS INITIAL UPPER
TROUGH TRIES TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE MAINLY BLO H7 SLOWLY EDGES IN FM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUE BUT
CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO A FEW SPRINKLES/VIRGA OR
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER. KEPT MAX TEMPS
ONLY TO AROUND 60 WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LATE RAIN. HOWEVER...
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST AND WITH H85
TEMPS UP A GOOD 2-4C OVER THOSE TODAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
LOW 70S INTERIOR WEST AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE AWAY FM LK
MICHIGAN. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE WHERE
TEMPS ARE WARMEST. E-SE WINDS LOOK STRONGER AS WELL /10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AS SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO HIGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS...BUT A WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE INTO RIDGE ALONG WITH SURGE OF H9-H7 MOISTURE
AND HIGHER SFC DWPNTS COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER
MORE OF THE CWA ON TUE NIGHT. CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT AT BEST
THOUGH.
RIDGE ALOFT SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON WED AS
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL
CANADA. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE FM THE SOUTHWEST ON WED
NIGHT. IT IS THAT WAVE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND SFC TO
H85 CONVERGENCE ALONG INITIAL WEAKER COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT BRINGS
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. SFC AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF CWA SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TSRA
WITH THE SHRA. SINCE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/PVA STAYS WELL TO NORTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SECONDARY WAVE LIFTS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH FARTHER EAST
ACROSS CWA. TOTAL RAINFALL PROBABLY WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER A QUARTER
INCH EXCEPT FOR FAR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
AND EVEN THERE GFS IS FARTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH.
SHOWERS OVER EAST HALF COULD GET A BOOST AS THAT AREA IS ON NOSE OF
H3 JET AND LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE
INSTABILITY THOUGH FOR THIS TO BE MAJOR FACTOR AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM
WILL BE RUNNING INTO HIGHER HEIGHTS/DRY AIR. JUST NOT LOOKING LIKE A
LOT OF RAIN WHICH REALLY WOULD BE WELCOME GIVEN THE DRY PATTERN UPR
MICHIGAN IS IN CURRENTLY.
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO LEADING TROUGH AND RESULTS IN PERSISTENT
TROUGHING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL BE SHORTWAVES DROPPING
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN AND EVEN FARTHER SW ACROSS
WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NO TELLING WHAT
ACTUAL TRACK OF STRONGER WAVES WILL BE THOUGH. STILL APPEARS CHILLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -6C TO -8C FRI
EVENING AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -10C BY SAT MORNING BEFORE MODERATING
TO AROUND -4C BY LATER SUN. THE COOL H85 TEMPS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES BLO 1290DAM SUPPORT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR MAYBE
JUST SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS SFC TEMPS FALL TO AROUND FREEZING LATER
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. WATER TEMPS ON LK SUPERIOR ARE 3C
OPEN WATERS TO NEAR 5C NEARSHORE...SO COULD EVEN BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVES IN VCNTY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMULATION. GFS SHOWS STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND GIVEN THE BROAD DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT CANNOT RULE IT OUT. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND
TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM
THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS
TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS ON THU INTO FRI
WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
736 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO MANITOBA AND A TROUGH OVER QUEBEC RESULTING IN CONFLUENT
NW MID/UPPER LEVEL THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO LOWER MI.
WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...IR LOOP SHOWED CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS UPPER MI.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT AS THE SFC RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...E TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST UPPER MI.
THE SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE 3C TO 7C RANGE...TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S INTERIOR WEST AND TO AROUND 60 OVER THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL PREVAIL DOWNWIND OF ERLY FLOW OFF
THE GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS...DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 20 TO 25
PERCENT...ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS ARE EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...DESPITE THE DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BOUNDARY
LAYER SE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING
TO KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF BELOW THE UPPER 30S. LOW TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WILL ARE EXPECTED NEAR IWD AND ONTONAGON
WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CONCERN AT LEAST INITIALLY THIS WEEK. UPPER
RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUE FORECAST TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AS INITIAL UPPER
TROUGH TRIES TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE MAINLY BLO H7 SLOWLY EDGES IN FM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUE BUT
CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO A FEW SPRINKLES/VIRGA OR
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER. KEPT MAX TEMPS
ONLY TO AROUND 60 WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LATE RAIN. HOWEVER...
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST AND WITH H85
TEMPS UP A GOOD 2-4C OVER THOSE TODAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
LOW 70S INTERIOR WEST AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE AWAY FM LK
MICHIGAN. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE WHERE
TEMPS ARE WARMEST. E-SE WINDS LOOK STRONGER AS WELL /10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AS SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO HIGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS...BUT A WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE INTO RIDGE ALONG WITH SURGE OF H9-H7 MOISTURE
AND HIGHER SFC DWPNTS COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER
MORE OF THE CWA ON TUE NIGHT. CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT AT BEST
THOUGH.
RIDGE ALOFT SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON WED AS
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL
CANADA. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE FM THE SOUTHWEST ON WED
NIGHT. IT IS THAT WAVE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND SFC TO
H85 CONVERGENCE ALONG INITIAL WEAKER COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT BRINGS
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. SFC AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF CWA SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TSRA
WITH THE SHRA. SINCE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/PVA STAYS WELL TO NORTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SECONDARY WAVE LIFTS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH FARTHER EAST
ACROSS CWA. TOTAL RAINFALL PROBABLY WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER A QUARTER
INCH EXCEPT FOR FAR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
AND EVEN THERE GFS IS FARTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH.
SHOWERS OVER EAST HALF COULD GET A BOOST AS THAT AREA IS ON NOSE OF
H3 JET AND LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE
INSTABILITY THOUGH FOR THIS TO BE MAJOR FACTOR AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM
WILL BE RUNNING INTO HIGHER HEIGHTS/DRY AIR. JUST NOT LOOKING LIKE A
LOT OF RAIN WHICH REALLY WOULD BE WELCOME GIVEN THE DRY PATTERN UPR
MICHIGAN IS IN CURRENTLY.
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO LEADING TROUGH AND RESULTS IN PERSISTENT
TROUGHING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL BE SHORTWAVES DROPPING
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN AND EVEN FARTHER SW ACROSS
WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NO TELLING WHAT
ACTUAL TRACK OF STRONGER WAVES WILL BE THOUGH. STILL APPEARS CHILLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -6C TO -8C FRI
EVENING AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -10C BY SAT MORNING BEFORE MODERATING
TO AROUND -4C BY LATER SUN. THE COOL H85 TEMPS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES BLO 1290DAM SUPPORT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR MAYBE
JUST SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS SFC TEMPS FALL TO AROUND FREEZING LATER
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. WATER TEMPS ON LK SUPERIOR ARE 3C
OPEN WATERS TO NEAR 5C NEARSHORE...SO COULD EVEN BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVES IN VCNTY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMULATION. GFS SHOWS STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND GIVEN THE BROAD DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT CANNOT RULE IT OUT. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND
TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM
THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS
TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS ON THU INTO FRI
WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
738 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Mon May 9 2016
This will mark day number one of an active stretch of weather
across the Missouri Ozarks. The main forecast concern through
tonight is the potential for severe thunderstorms. For starters,
this is a very complex setup with multiple potential scenarios
playing out. Thus, interested parties are urged to keep up with
short term forecast and hazardous weather outlook updates.
For the sake of messaging, here is our best shot at what we think
is going to transpire today and tonight...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms (elevated in nature) will
develop and shift northeast across the region starting early this
morning as strong upper level diffluence overspreads the area in
conjunction with lower level isentropic upglide. We are not
expecting much of a severe threat this morning although a few
storms producing small hail cannot be ruled out.
As that activity begins to shift northeast of the area, we are
then expecting additional convection to begin developing across
northern Arkansas starting late this morning as upper level short
wave energy approaches and the low level jet reorganizes and noses
into that region. This convection is expected to spread northeast
into the Ozarks this afternoon...especially along and south of
the I-44 corridor. A few of these storms may become severe as
instability and shear increase. There may be just enough
instability for some supercell structures this afternoon with a
few line segments also possible. Hail to the size of half dollars
and damaging wind gusts will be the main potential hazards with
this activity. There is also a limited threat for a brief tornado
if a line segment can get going and bows towards the northeast.
Additionally, low level shear will increase as sunset
approaches...thus opening a brief window for a supercell tornado
threat across south-central Missouri.
Meanwhile, we are expecting additional convection to fire just
east of the I-35 corridor in Kansas and Oklahoma later this
afternoon. This activity will develop in a much more unstable
atmosphere. Convective mode may initially be supercellular across
eastern Kansas and Oklahoma, but we are expecting upscale growth
as these storms approach western Missouri. Line segments will
therefore be the favored convective mode, however a few supercells
will remain possible. All modes of severe weather will be possible
with this activity as it shifts into western Missouri this
evening. This convection should then slowly weaken as it
encounters less in the way of instability east of the Highway 65
corridor starting later tonight.
One other potential threat to throw out there will be a localized
flash flooding threat given that multiple rounds of storms will be
possible. At this time, we feel that the threat for localized
flash flooding will generally be along and south of the I-44
corridor.
As was mentioned early on in this discussion, this is a complex
scenario. Any slight changes in instability and/or shear profiles
will result in a significant difference in potential severe
weather timing and hazards. Here is a small handful of examples:
1) The amount of instability that will be present over the next 21
hours is very difficult to ascertain given that multiple rounds
of convection are possible. It is quite likely that we release at
least one special RAOB to compensate.
2) Mid and upper level wind fields when comparing the NAM and GFS
are vastly different from late this afternoon into this evening.
The GFS really weakens these fields which would hurt supercell
potential. At this time, we are siding with the NAM.
3) Some models are backing surface winds this evening ahead of the
approaching convection from the west. If this happens, we could
see a window of slightly higher supercell tornado potential if
convection is able to remain more discrete this evening. At this
time, we favor the backing of winds given the presence of a
surface low to the west of the region and the climatological
leeside trough that will develop in this regime north of the
Boston Mountains.
Again...stay tuned to short term forecast updates as the finer
details become clearer throughout the day.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Mon May 9 2016
The atmosphere will become rather unstable on Tuesday as
temperatures warm into the lower 80s over most areas. However, the
presence of upper level short wave ridging and a lack of focusing
mechanisms leaves serious doubt in thunderstorm potential. Deep
layer shear will also be rather weak. If a storm is able to
initiate, there would be a marginal severe threat.
There will then be a slightly better severe threat on Wednesday as
short wave energy crosses the central Plains and drives a cold
front into the Ozarks. This looks like a good setup for a squall
line and an attendant damaging wind potential.
Quiet and cooler weather should then return to the area on
Thursday and for most of Friday as we slip into a northwesterly
flow aloft. Models do bring another cold front through the area
either late Friday or Friday night. This could give us another
quick round of showers and thunderstorms.
The setup for this weekend then looks somewhat interesting as
global models starting waffling that front back and forth in our
general vicinity. This could spell more opportunities for showers
and thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 724 AM CDT Mon May 9 2016
Main concern will be with ceiling impacts due to thunderstorms
ahead of the central Plains storm system. Storms currently to the south
and west of the airports will likely take a few hours to reach the
aerodromes so delayed vicinity showers until around 15Z. From late
morning through the afternoon will carry at least vicinity showers
or thunder through late afternoon. Strongest storms will likely
affect the airports between 09/22Z and 10/02Z, and later forecasts
may need to increase winds and decrease visibilities based on
future radar trends.
Winds will remain southerly through the forecast period with
additional rainfall expected on Tuesday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Terry
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
738 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Mon May 9 2016
This will mark day number one of an active stretch of weather
across the Missouri Ozarks. The main forecast concern through
tonight is the potential for severe thunderstorms. For starters,
this is a very complex setup with multiple potential scenarios
playing out. Thus, interested parties are urged to keep up with
short term forecast and hazardous weather outlook updates.
For the sake of messaging, here is our best shot at what we think
is going to transpire today and tonight...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms (elevated in nature) will
develop and shift northeast across the region starting early this
morning as strong upper level diffluence overspreads the area in
conjunction with lower level isentropic upglide. We are not
expecting much of a severe threat this morning although a few
storms producing small hail cannot be ruled out.
As that activity begins to shift northeast of the area, we are
then expecting additional convection to begin developing across
northern Arkansas starting late this morning as upper level short
wave energy approaches and the low level jet reorganizes and noses
into that region. This convection is expected to spread northeast
into the Ozarks this afternoon...especially along and south of
the I-44 corridor. A few of these storms may become severe as
instability and shear increase. There may be just enough
instability for some supercell structures this afternoon with a
few line segments also possible. Hail to the size of half dollars
and damaging wind gusts will be the main potential hazards with
this activity. There is also a limited threat for a brief tornado
if a line segment can get going and bows towards the northeast.
Additionally, low level shear will increase as sunset
approaches...thus opening a brief window for a supercell tornado
threat across south-central Missouri.
Meanwhile, we are expecting additional convection to fire just
east of the I-35 corridor in Kansas and Oklahoma later this
afternoon. This activity will develop in a much more unstable
atmosphere. Convective mode may initially be supercellular across
eastern Kansas and Oklahoma, but we are expecting upscale growth
as these storms approach western Missouri. Line segments will
therefore be the favored convective mode, however a few supercells
will remain possible. All modes of severe weather will be possible
with this activity as it shifts into western Missouri this
evening. This convection should then slowly weaken as it
encounters less in the way of instability east of the Highway 65
corridor starting later tonight.
One other potential threat to throw out there will be a localized
flash flooding threat given that multiple rounds of storms will be
possible. At this time, we feel that the threat for localized
flash flooding will generally be along and south of the I-44
corridor.
As was mentioned early on in this discussion, this is a complex
scenario. Any slight changes in instability and/or shear profiles
will result in a significant difference in potential severe
weather timing and hazards. Here is a small handful of examples:
1) The amount of instability that will be present over the next 21
hours is very difficult to ascertain given that multiple rounds
of convection are possible. It is quite likely that we release at
least one special RAOB to compensate.
2) Mid and upper level wind fields when comparing the NAM and GFS
are vastly different from late this afternoon into this evening.
The GFS really weakens these fields which would hurt supercell
potential. At this time, we are siding with the NAM.
3) Some models are backing surface winds this evening ahead of the
approaching convection from the west. If this happens, we could
see a window of slightly higher supercell tornado potential if
convection is able to remain more discrete this evening. At this
time, we favor the backing of winds given the presence of a
surface low to the west of the region and the climatological
leeside trough that will develop in this regime north of the
Boston Mountains.
Again...stay tuned to short term forecast updates as the finer
details become clearer throughout the day.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Mon May 9 2016
The atmosphere will become rather unstable on Tuesday as
temperatures warm into the lower 80s over most areas. However, the
presence of upper level short wave ridging and a lack of focusing
mechanisms leaves serious doubt in thunderstorm potential. Deep
layer shear will also be rather weak. If a storm is able to
initiate, there would be a marginal severe threat.
There will then be a slightly better severe threat on Wednesday as
short wave energy crosses the central Plains and drives a cold
front into the Ozarks. This looks like a good setup for a squall
line and an attendant damaging wind potential.
Quiet and cooler weather should then return to the area on
Thursday and for most of Friday as we slip into a northwesterly
flow aloft. Models do bring another cold front through the area
either late Friday or Friday night. This could give us another
quick round of showers and thunderstorms.
The setup for this weekend then looks somewhat interesting as
global models starting waffling that front back and forth in our
general vicinity. This could spell more opportunities for showers
and thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 724 AM CDT Mon May 9 2016
Main concern will be with ceiling impacts due to thunderstorms
ahead of the central Plains storm system. Storms currently to the south
and west of the airports will likely take a few hours to reach the
aerodromes so delayed vicinity showers until around 15Z. From late
morning through the afternoon will carry at least vicinity showers
or thunder through late afternoon. Strongest storms will likely
affect the airports between 09/22Z and 10/02Z, and later forecasts
may need to increase winds and decrease visibilities based on
future radar trends.
Winds will remain southerly through the forecast period with
additional rainfall expected on Tuesday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Terry
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
655 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
The storms continue this morning, with the precip currently primarily
concentrated across northern MO. The convective cluster currently
occupying space over southern NE into northern KS may clip NW MO
later this morning but the focus is on the convection initiating over
central KS. Both hi-res and other models have been struggling to
resolve what`s going on so forecasting the near term is largely
dependent on radar trends and area observations. As for later today,
it`s difficult to pinpoint who exactly is going to see storms when
due to the nature of the setup. Will see multiple rounds of storms,
although most models are suggesting very good chances later this
afternoon into this evening across the eastern two-thirds of the
forecast area. The GFS is particularly bullish in the precip,
indicating a line of storms dumping decent rain in the aforementioned
area.
As for the severe potential for today, uncertainty exists in the
amount of instability that storms will have to work with. If the
atmosphere is unable to recover due to any sort of morning
convection, will be hard-pressed to see widespread severe threat.
Even if the atmosphere is able to destabilize enough to warrant
concern, 0-6km bulk shear values are marginal to support anything
significant. Bottom line: complicated severe forecast for today given
that the chances are largely based on what happens this morning.
However, continued threat exists for locally heavy rain so the focus
for weather impacts will certainly be hydro-related.
While mentionable PoPs continues from overnight tonight into
overnight Tuesday, generally speaking, the area should see a bit of a
break overall. Convection ramps back up on Wednesday as surface low
and attendant cold front marches through. Severe chances once again
exists for Wed. afternoon into the evening hours, although the
limiting factor may be the displacement of shear. Better shear values
look to lag behind the front and instability so will need to monitor
subsequent model runs to see if the two can sync up with each other
at all. Not out of the question that a narrow line of the two
parameters lines up immediately ahead of the front. That said, with
plentiful instability out ahead of the front to work with, along with
decent lapse rates and coincident increasing lower-level flow, these
parameters could very well overcome the potential limiting factor.
Stay tuned.
We`ll finally have a brief dry period before the next disturbance
comes through to end the week. Diverging model solutions toward the
end of the forecast period puts some uncertainty into precip chances
to round out next weekend but both the GFS and ECMWF hint at a slow-
moving boundary lingering about. Regarding temperatures, previously
discussed struggles with atmospheric recovery today should limit
highs to the lower to mid 70s. For tomorrow though, uninhibited WAA
will re-introduce 80s for much of the area. Temp gradient then sets
up on Wednesday with temps struggling to reach the 70 degree mark
behind the front but raising up into the 80s out ahead of the
boundary in central MO. Temps will then hang out on the cooler side
of normal for much of the rest of the forecast period.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
Challenging forecast as multiple rounds of storms are anticipated to
impact the area throughout the day. With these storms, ceilings may
bounce in and out of VFR/MVFR, perhaps lower with any stronger storms
that directly impact the terminals. Currently, indications continue
to point toward the best storm chances to impact area terminals later
this afternoon into early this evening. As for the overnight to early
Tuesday morning period, could see ceilings perhaps dropping into the
IFR category given abundant moisture available. However, with this
being toward the end of the TAF period, have precluded mention with
this issuance.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...lg
Aviation...lg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
655 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
The storms continue this morning, with the precip currently primarily
concentrated across northern MO. The convective cluster currently
occupying space over southern NE into northern KS may clip NW MO
later this morning but the focus is on the convection initiating over
central KS. Both hi-res and other models have been struggling to
resolve what`s going on so forecasting the near term is largely
dependent on radar trends and area observations. As for later today,
it`s difficult to pinpoint who exactly is going to see storms when
due to the nature of the setup. Will see multiple rounds of storms,
although most models are suggesting very good chances later this
afternoon into this evening across the eastern two-thirds of the
forecast area. The GFS is particularly bullish in the precip,
indicating a line of storms dumping decent rain in the aforementioned
area.
As for the severe potential for today, uncertainty exists in the
amount of instability that storms will have to work with. If the
atmosphere is unable to recover due to any sort of morning
convection, will be hard-pressed to see widespread severe threat.
Even if the atmosphere is able to destabilize enough to warrant
concern, 0-6km bulk shear values are marginal to support anything
significant. Bottom line: complicated severe forecast for today given
that the chances are largely based on what happens this morning.
However, continued threat exists for locally heavy rain so the focus
for weather impacts will certainly be hydro-related.
While mentionable PoPs continues from overnight tonight into
overnight Tuesday, generally speaking, the area should see a bit of a
break overall. Convection ramps back up on Wednesday as surface low
and attendant cold front marches through. Severe chances once again
exists for Wed. afternoon into the evening hours, although the
limiting factor may be the displacement of shear. Better shear values
look to lag behind the front and instability so will need to monitor
subsequent model runs to see if the two can sync up with each other
at all. Not out of the question that a narrow line of the two
parameters lines up immediately ahead of the front. That said, with
plentiful instability out ahead of the front to work with, along with
decent lapse rates and coincident increasing lower-level flow, these
parameters could very well overcome the potential limiting factor.
Stay tuned.
We`ll finally have a brief dry period before the next disturbance
comes through to end the week. Diverging model solutions toward the
end of the forecast period puts some uncertainty into precip chances
to round out next weekend but both the GFS and ECMWF hint at a slow-
moving boundary lingering about. Regarding temperatures, previously
discussed struggles with atmospheric recovery today should limit
highs to the lower to mid 70s. For tomorrow though, uninhibited WAA
will re-introduce 80s for much of the area. Temp gradient then sets
up on Wednesday with temps struggling to reach the 70 degree mark
behind the front but raising up into the 80s out ahead of the
boundary in central MO. Temps will then hang out on the cooler side
of normal for much of the rest of the forecast period.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
Challenging forecast as multiple rounds of storms are anticipated to
impact the area throughout the day. With these storms, ceilings may
bounce in and out of VFR/MVFR, perhaps lower with any stronger storms
that directly impact the terminals. Currently, indications continue
to point toward the best storm chances to impact area terminals later
this afternoon into early this evening. As for the overnight to early
Tuesday morning period, could see ceilings perhaps dropping into the
IFR category given abundant moisture available. However, with this
being toward the end of the TAF period, have precluded mention with
this issuance.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...lg
Aviation...lg
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
654 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Mon May 9 2016
Potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop at anytime today
will complicate forecast. Regional radars are showing scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing in strong low level moisture
convergence over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois. This
trend will likely continue through most of the morning hours as the
RAP and the SPC HRRR is showing additional thunderstorms developing
along and north of a warm front this morning. This front will move
north of the CWA by this afternoon in response to an approaching
upper level trough from the Central Plains. Additional
thunderstorms are expected to develop over Missouri this afternoon
as strong ascent increases ahead of the trough at the same time
there will be strong low level moisture convergence over the area.
Deep layer shear will also be increasing above 40kts which favors
organized convection per the latest SPC day 1 outlook, however the
main limiting factor will be amount of instability over the area.
This will be determined if the atmosphere has enough time to recover
from previous showers and thunderstorms and how much solar
insolation there is today to help heat up the atmosphere.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Mon May 9 2016
Negatively tilted trof will be rotating through the area tonight.
Ongoing convection ahead of the system will likely continue eastward
through the CWFA...even strengthening as the low level jet veers and
increases to 40-50kts. Think areal coverage/intensity of storms
will diminish as the trof axis moves southwest to northeast across
the area tonight. While I still think there will be scattered
convection behind the 500mb trof due to continuing low level warm
advection, the mid and upper level support should be waning...and I
don`t think it`s worth more than "scattered" wording in the forecast
for all but eastern sections of the area after the trof axis moves
through.
Think Tuesday will be a relative lull in convective activity across
the area. GFS forecast soundings are building a decent cap over the
area Tuesday which should limit potential for storms. While the NAM
soundings don`t have as much cap, the NAM tends to overforecast
boundary layer moisture. Additionally, shortwave ridging will be
building over the Mississippi Valley. That being said, can`t rule
out some afternoon and evening storms if local forcing can break the
cap. Steep lapse rates will produce CAPE around 2000 J/Kg which
will be good enough for isolated severe storms.
The longwave trof over the western CONUS is forecast to finally
eject northeast Wednesday with the associated cold front pushing
into Missouri Wednesday afternoon. Strong isolation along with
surface dewpoints in the mid 60s as well as the aforementioned steep
lapse rates are yielding CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/Kg...
actually surface CAPE values on the GFS are over 4000 J/Kg, but that
might be unrealistic. Limiting factor on severe weather might be
the rather unimpressive deep layer shear of only 20-25kts.
Regardless...eye-popping CAPE values bear watching over the next
couple of days, and severe storms do look likely. Thunderstorms
should end with the passage of the cold front late Wednesday night.
Cooler and drier weather still looks likely for the latter half of
the week in northwest flow behind the front. Another reinforcing
cold front is showing up in extended guidance Friday into Saturday.
Guidance is printing out precip across the area, think coverage will
be scattered at best due to lack of deep moisture since the cold
front which moved through our area Wednesday into Thursday will be
settling across the Gulf Coast limiting return flow.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Mon May 9 2016
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across
the area that will affect the terminals. Showers are currently
moving across the St. Louis area terminals, and have added VCTS to
cover this. Do expect additional showers and possible
thunderstorms to develop later this morning and this afternoon
that will affect all of the terminals with MVFR visibilities and
ceilings. An upper level storm system will move across the area
this evening bringing another round of thunderstorms to all of the
terminals. There is the possibility of severe thunderstorm this
afternoon and this evening. Any severe storms could bring hail and
strong wind gusts.
Specifics for KSTL: Have included VCTS this morning for scattered
showers moving through the area. There will be a better chance of
showers and possible thunderstorms early this afternoon and this
evening. Ceilings and visiblities in the showers and thunderstorms
will be MVFR or possibly IFR at times.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
835 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 829 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
QUICK UPDATE TO POPS FOR OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 13
UTC...BLENDED THEREAFTER TO A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 10-12
UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON ONGOING CONVECTION
THIS MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION BAND WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS ADDRESSED WELL...WITH IT
GRADUALLY PUSHING IN THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SMOKE
DISSIPATING TODAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND COLORADO
AND WESTERN PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WAS A LOW OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING FROM SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW WAS IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CANADIAN LOW/TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL MONTANA. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN FIRES HAD BEGUN MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA TO THE EAST...AS
WINDS ALOFT FROM THE SOUTH CONTINUED TO STEER THE SMOKE AWAY.
EXPECT SMOKE TO BE MAINLY OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO JAMES VALLEY
MAINLY THIS MORNING...AND BE GONE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
WY/CO/SD/NE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY...DIGGING THE
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SOUTHEASTWARD AND PHASING THE TWO
TOGETHER INTO ONE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MONTANA/WYOMING BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AND REACHING THE NORTH DAKOTA/MONTANA BORDER BY
TUESDAY EVENING.
TODAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
MOVING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND REACHING SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND DAYBREAK. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE 60S SOUTH TO THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH DEVELOPING TODAY.
TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS/MONTANA WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED WITH A
STACKED SURFACE LOW...STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP SURROUNDING THE
SYSTEM. SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NAM IS DEPICTING BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE OF 200-300 J/KG AHEAD OF A DRY
SLOT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE SHOWERS LIKELY WEST AND
NORTH...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE LOW IN CENTRAL
AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA COINCIDING WITH THE NAM`S PROJECTED
CAPE. COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE 50S WEST TO 60S IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
STACKED LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH
DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...TAPERING OFF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE WEST.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER GOING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST WITH RIBBON OF MODEST INSTABILITY
REMAINING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER IN THE EVENING.
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY EVENING. MODEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE WRAPS
AROUND THE SYSTEM. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW COOL AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WITH ~40 KT WINDS MIXING
DOWN OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO END THE WORK WEEK GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 829 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS FORECAST AT
KJMS/KBIS/KMOT. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE DAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS AFTER 18Z AND AT KMOT/KISN AFTER 20Z. MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
948 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF
LAKE ERIE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN HAS REACHED INTO THE AREA FROM KFDY THROUGH
KMNN AND SRN RICHLAND/ASHLAND COUNTIES. STILL THE RAIN IS
HAVING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE...A TOUGH TIME MOVING
NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
AND MID 30S IN THAT AREA AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED. WILL RAISE POPS FAR
SOUTHWEST FOR EARLY TODAY. THE HRRR HOWEVER SHOWS THIS FIRST BATCH
THINNING THROUGH THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE GRIDDED POPS. HAVE
ALSO REMOVED THUNDER BASED ON FORECAST CAPES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A WARM FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS ALREADY A BAND OF
SHOWERS FROM NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO AROUND INDIANAPOLIS.
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT DRIFTS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND
ENCOUNTERS A DRIER ATMOSPHERE. DID KEEP A CHANCE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
THESE SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS A
TOLEDO TO CANTON LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST
BELOW 60. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY
BE LOCATED NORTH OF A TOLEDO TO CANTON LINE. HIGHS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HOWEVER IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR
THE LAKESHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE POPS FOR TONIGHT
ARE OVERDONE WITH INCREASED RIDGING ALOFT AND THE SLOW RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LATER SHIFTS
DECREASE POPS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THIS LOW LIFTS TO NEAR HUDSON BAY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. MORE DETAILS ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. IF THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT INTO TUESDAY WE
WILL BEGIN TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.
EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS WINDS EVENTUALLY
BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR ALL LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GET A BREAK FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BUT THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -3C. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN QUICKLY
SUNDAY CHOKING OFF THE LAKE EFFECT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT STILL SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
MOVED INTO SW OHIO. SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE WITH FRONT BUT
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ADVANCING WITH A E-NE FLOW. EXPECT SHOWERS
IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT SPREADING ACROSS ENTIRE AREA
UNTIL OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS TURN TO THE ENE TODAY AS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY SLOWLY LIFTS ENE. WILL SEE CHOPPY CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS ENE FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. FRONT WILL
FINALLY MAKE IT ACROSS LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AT WHICH POINT
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
617 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM THIS MORNING PER SURFACE OBS VERSUS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
CURRENT READINGS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN CWA ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
WEAK SHORTWAVE PER GUIDANCE...AND HRRR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. THUS WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR TODAY. DESPITE
CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS...ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL WARM DAY IS
ANTICIPATED AND WENT ABOVE MOS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.
MAIN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT THEN SWING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RAPIDLY SHEARING APART AND WEAKENING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO
OUR WEST TODAY ACROSS OK/AR/MO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OUTRUNNING THE
INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AND THUS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
FORECAST AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A 30 KT 850 MB JET BRINGS DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO THE
AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE CAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE
AND WITH WEAKENING UPPER JET PASSING OVERHEAD...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCE IS IN NORTHWEST ZONES. AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MODEST SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS
TO BE STRONG OR POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AS PARAMETERS ARE NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE AND UPPER JET WILL BE QUICKLY WEAKENING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT. NEVERTHELESS...IF AN MCS CAN
ORGANIZE TO OUR NORTHWEST AND HEAD THIS WAY AS 00Z ECMWF
SUGGESTS...SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE. SPC HAS ADDED MOST OF
THE AREA INTO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
MORE SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AREAWIDE. LARGE
UPPER TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL FORCE A
DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST PUSHING FRONT THROUGH AREA AND SIDED
WITH THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK AT AROUND 25 KTS...PLENTIFUL CAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH BOUNDARY FOCUS COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS. CONVECTION WILL CLEAR OUT BY FRIDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A WETTER
PERIOD IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD DIFFUSE FRONTAL
ZONE STALLS NEAR OR ACROSS TENNESSEE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE KEPT TEMPS
GENERALLY NEAR THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED BUT WENT
WITH LOWER POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE FRONTAL ZONE MAY
ACTUALLY END UP.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS IMPACTING KCKV THIS MORNING. MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE
SHOWING VFR CIGS TO HOLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LOOK TO MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING FOR
KCKV AND OVERNIGHT FOR KBNA...AND POSSIBLY KCSV BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......55/SHAMBURGER
AVIATION........BARNWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
944 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...THE LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE COASTAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND A WAKE LOW FORMED OVER THE COASTAL BEND LEADING
TO STRONGER WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE HILL
COUNTRY BACK INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A WEAK IMPULSE SOUTHWEST OF
LAREDO. SEEING AN INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY SOUTH OF LAREDO WITH
THISE FEATURE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH DRYING EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST.
&&
.MARINE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMED OVER THE COASTAL BEND IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION THAT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. THIS
HAS PRODUCED WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE BAYS
AND NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THESE HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH BY 16Z. BUT STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE HRRR SHOWS STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...SO EXTENDED THE SCA UNTIL 01Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...RAINFALL EXPECTED TO END OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS BY
16Z...FIRST AT KALI THEN AT KCRP AND KVCT. NO RAINFALL MENTIONED
AT KLRD...BUT THEY COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DIMINISH. BASED ON 4 KM MODELS (NOT HRRR THOUGH)...
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST NOT
WHERE PUTTING TEMPO THUNDER IS WARRANTED (TOO ISOLATED IF ANYTHING
AT ALL). THUS...DID NOT MENTION RAINFALL AFTER 16Z. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF JUST A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THEN DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP MAINLY AROUND 03Z AT KVCT AND AOA 06Z AT KCRP
AND KALI...A BIT LATER AT KLRD (MORE TOWARD 09Z). MOS IS HINTING
AT FOG BY 12Z EASTERN TERMINALS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
THAT AT THIS TIME SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY BE UP ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE FOG.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 88 76 90 75 88 / 30 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 85 73 89 73 87 / 30 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 96 76 100 75 98 / 20 10 10 20 20
ALICE 93 73 95 74 93 / 30 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 84 78 86 76 86 / 30 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 97 72 100 74 96 / 10 10 20 10 20
KINGSVILLE 91 74 94 75 90 / 30 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 85 77 86 76 86 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
OCONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
TMT/89...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
721 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS CENTER AROUND RAIN
NEAR THE TERMINALS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY... GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS... AND MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS NOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF BY MID-MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION... WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/ ISOLATED TSRA
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL ACTUALLY
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS MORNING AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS OUT OF HOUSTON
SHOW LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHAT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INITIALIZED WITH... INDICATING MORE STABILITY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE ALSO SHOWING A DECREASE
IN COVERAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TERMINALS. IN RESPONSE...
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR HUNTSVILLE AND CONROE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST FOR TRENDS.
ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHER GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR RAIN TODAY AS STRONGER WINDS /KHGX VAD WIND PROFILER
SHOWING 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS THROUGH 5KFT/ ARE TRANSPORTED TO THE
SURFACE. EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO RELAX THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION... BUT LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN TO THE
TERMINALS AFTER 06Z.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH VIRGA/SPRINKLES/SHOWERS
MOVING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE 59 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. GUSTS
30-43 MPH THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE IMPULSE NEAR VCT/BYY
TO RIDE UP THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS. EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY AND
UPPED THE WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING.
45
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SETX EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS. EVENING ANALYSIS SHOWED
A BAND OF SHALLOW MOISTURE NEAR CRP-SJT EXTENDING TO NEAR SPS
WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO SETX/ETX. A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM DRT UP THROUGH WESTERN OK WILL BE
KEEPING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE TODAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS
THIS MORNING EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE BOTH OVER THE GULF AND
OVER SETX. AREAS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD GET BREEZY THIS MORNING AS
MIXING GETS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT INLAND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES AS CORE OF LLJ CLIPS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE LIFTING AWAY. SHOWERS THIS MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE OUT INTO THE GULF. THIS AFTERNOON IS A
DIFFICULT FORECAST...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING MAY SCATTER
SOMEWHAT BY AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S
INLAND...DEEP CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 83-84 WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED IN NATURE OVER
THE AREA FROM COLLEGE STATION TO HOUSTON TO LIBERTY
NORTHWARD...PRIMARILY SHOWERS BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATER AND COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THEY
MAY BE GETTING ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING AS THEY DEPART THE NE
COUNTIES. WILL KEEP WITH THE 60+ POPS IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
TAPERING DOWN TO 30 NEAR THE COAST. S/W KICKER SWEEPS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO PRECIP CHANCES. S/W RIDGING
TRAVERSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THEN STARTS RELOADING TUESDAY
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE WEST WITH A STRONG
CAP REBOUNDING ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BRING A
GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION
LATE AFTERNOON OR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 2500+ CAPE AND LI -6 TO -10 BUT MOISTURE MAY BE A
LIMITING FACTOR. NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH AND
WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS COVER DO MORE TO BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES
FROM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE UPPER UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90...DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY
TO THE EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED AND LOW RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. ECMWF AND GFS
DIVERGING GREATLY BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER FLOW
PATTERNS NEARLY 180 OUT OF PHASE OVER 4 CORNERS AND WEST TEXAS.
MARINE...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. A
TIGHTER INLAND PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT RAIN MOVING ALONG THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS MORNING IS ALLOWING FOR STRONGER WINDS
/20 TO 25 KNOTS/ ACROSS THE BAYS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH BUOYS 019 AND 035 REPORTING WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS NOT TIGHTENED AS
QUICKLY AS PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED. THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL ALLOW THIS GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS HOWEVER... AND WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTHERLY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS. COULD SEE
A FEW STRONGER GUSTS APPROACH OR EXCEED 30 KNOTS AS WELL.
TIDE LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND MAY REACH 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING. CONTINUED THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK IN PLACE ALONG THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST. STILL MAY SEE SOME WAVE RUN-UP ALONG THE HIGHWAY
87/124 INTERSECTION AROUND HIGH TIDE /8 AM/ THIS MORNING... BUT
GIVEN LATEST TRENDS IN TIDE LEVELS THINK RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THE
GREATER CONCERN ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TODAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IMPROVING THIS EVENING AS THE STORM
SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... BUT CAUTION FLAGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY... WITH OFFSHORE FLOW POSSIBLE AS THE
BOUNDARY/ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSH INTO THE GULF.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 85 71 89 70 86 / 40 10 10 10 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 84 72 89 72 87 / 40 10 20 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 76 82 75 81 / 40 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...
WALLER...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
649 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...RAINFALL EXPECTED TO END OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS BY
16Z...FIRST AT KALI THEN AT KCRP AND KVCT. NO RAINFALL MENTIONED
AT KLRD...BUT THEY COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DIMINISH. BASED ON 4 KM MODELS (NOT HRRR THOUGH)...
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST NOT
WHERE PUTTING TEMPO THUNDER IS WARRANTED (TOO ISOLATED IF ANYTHING
AT ALL). THUS...DID NOT MENTION RAINFALL AFTER 16Z. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF JUST A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THEN DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP MAINLY AROUND 03Z AT KVCT AND AOA 06Z AT KCRP
AND KALI...A BIT LATER AT KLRD (MORE TOWARD 09Z). MOS IS HINTING
AT FOG BY 12Z EASTERN TERMINALS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
THAT AT THIS TIME SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY BE UP ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE FOG.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MAIN ISSUE IS THE RAIN
CHANCES...MAINLY TODAY BUT ALSO LATE TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL JET IS
KEEPING RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA...MAINLY IMPACTING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS JET
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY AND DRIER AIR WILL COME IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY
SHOWERS) THIS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN AREAS (SLIGHT CHANCE
WEST)...THEN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE EAST AND NO RAIN
TO THE WEST (STILL A CHANCE IN VICTORIA AREA). NO RAIN EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF...IF NOT ALL OF...TUESDAY.
MAIN ISSUE ON TUESDAY IS WHETHER IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH OUT WEST
AND IF MOISTURE IS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR (AND THAT IS
QUESTIONABLE) THEY WILL BE STRONG...IF NOT SEVERE. HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE THETA-E RIDGE TO THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MODERATE NEGATIVE THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME NORTHWEST (AT BEST ESTIMATE).
TTU 4 KM MODEL IS SHOWING CONVECTION LATE JUST TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST OF COTULLA LATE IN THE DAY. THUS...AM GOING TO PUT
20 POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST AS-NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY (THE LATTER NEAR THE COAST
TODAY)...WITH JUST A BIT LESS WIND ON TUESDAY. LOOKS TO BE WARM
AND HUMID THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WHEN 850MB TEMPERATURES BECOME 20C OR MORE
(THAT IS WHY AM NOT SURE CAP WILL BE BROKEN). LOTS OF CLOUDS THIS
MORNING AND MUCH LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.
MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA AS
ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE NOT COME UP JUST YET...AM EXPECTING THEM TO DO
SO LATER TODAY. THUS...DO NOT WANT TO ADJUST SCA TIME FRAME SINCE
VTEC CODING WILL BE TO CANCEL SCA AND DO NOT WANT TO DO THAT. FEEL
PRETTY CONFIDENT WINDS WILL COME UP SUFFICIENTLY TODAY. FOR
NOW...DID NOT ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE SCA ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
TAPER OFF OVER THE BAYS BEFORE 6 PM.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEAK SHORT WAVE
INTERACTING WITH DECENT INSTABILITY COULD KICK OFF ISOLATED
CONVECTION WED INTO WED NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS OVER THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON THURS AS
WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE HILL COUNTRY SHOULD INITIATE SOME STORM
DEVELOPMENT. NW STEERING WINDS WOULD ALLOW ANY CONVECTION TO MOVE SE
INTO OUR AREA. THE FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT OVER OR JUST NORTHEAST
OF OUR CWA FRIDAY. SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MSTR/INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED STORMS TO FIRE ON THE OLD BOUNDARY OVER THE NE. MODEL
BLENDED TEMPS LOOKED TOUGH TO BEAT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DEEP RIDGING THEN LOOKS TO TAKE OVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
AND INCREASINGLY HOT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 88 76 90 75 88 / 30 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 85 73 89 73 87 / 30 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 96 76 100 75 98 / 20 10 10 20 20
ALICE 93 73 95 74 93 / 30 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 84 78 86 76 86 / 30 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 97 72 100 74 96 / 10 10 20 10 20
KINGSVILLE 91 74 94 75 90 / 30 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 85 77 86 76 86 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
OCONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
GW/86...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
253 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
...BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOMORROW...
CURRENTLY...PLEASANT SPRING DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE PLAINS. WINDS HAVE SWUNG AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL PUSH AND ARE GUSTING IN THE 20-30KT RANGE AT TIMES. CU FIELD
LOOKS PRETTY INACTIVE AS OF 2PM LOCAL TIME. A COUPLE STORMS...WITH
SOME SMALL HAIL...HAVE FORMED OVER THE EXTREME SE PLAINS...BUT
CURRENT ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NOT MUCH
DEVELOPMENT SEEN TO THE WEST. CURRENT SCT POPS OVER THE MTS MAY BE A
BIT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WITH STAY THE COURSE FOR NOW...WITH A COUPLE
HOURS OF HEATING LEFT THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW OVER THE MTS HAS LARGELY
ENDED PER WEB CAMS...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE
CONTDVD.
MAIN WX CONCERN WILL BE A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
MOVING INTO THE YELLOWSTONE AREA OF NW WY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO WRN CO LATE TONIGHT. LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS BRING A LINE
OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTS AND
ON TO THE PIKE PEAK REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. BASED ON
OTHER MODELS...EXTENT OF QPF MAY BE OVERDONE IN THE HRRR BUT THERE
ARE SOME SIGNS IN THE NAM THAT SHOW POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THROUGH
EARLY TUE MORNING. GFS IS DRY AND ARW/NMM ARE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN
THE HRRR. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN SCT POPS
FOR THE UPPER ARKANSAS AREA...AND ISOLD FOR THE PIKES PEAK AREA
THROUGH TUE MORNING. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST THESE AREAS IF
THE TRENDS FOR THIS DISTURBANCE CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.
TOMORROW...A BREAK IS EXPECTED AFTER THE MORNING CONVECTION BEFORE A
SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP DEVELOPS TUE AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE AND INCREASED UPSLOPE OVER THE SRN FRONT RANGE.
TEMPS ALOFT TOMORROW RISE A FEW DEGREES...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY PRECIP DEVELOPS AND HOW EXTENSIVE IT IS...THIS MAY LIMIT THE
HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE NRN
AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...OVER THE MTS AND N OF HGWY 50. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
TUE NIGHT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
WITH REGARDS TO PCPN OVR THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM SHOW SPOTTY
ISOLD TO SCT PCPN ACRS THE AREA IN THE EVENING HOURS...AND THEN FOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT HAS LITTLE OR NO PCPN . THE GFS SHOWS A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD PCPN IN THE EVENING...AND HAS A BLOB OF PERSISTENT PCPN
OVER PIKES PEAK...TELLER...FREMONT...WESTERN PUEBLO AND EL PASO
COUNTIES. IT APPEARS THAT THE DIFFERENCE IF THAT THE GFS HAS LOW TO
MID LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW THAT IS GENERATING THE PCPN...WHEREAS THE NAM
HAS NORTHERLY SFC WINDS AND SWRLY MID LEVEL WINDS. FOR NOW...WL KEEP
SCT PCPN CHANCES OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE
NIGHT.
ON WED AN UPR TROF AND A COUPLE DISTURBANCE MOVE ACRS THE STATE AND
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK FAIRLY GOOD FROM THE I-
25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW TO MID
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM GENERALLY KEEPS THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS DRY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE GFS SPREADS PCPN
ACRS THE PLAINS...BUT IN THE EVENING HOURS THE NAM ALSO SPREADS PCPN
ACRS THE PLAINS WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE AREA...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUM. AS THAT
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TOWARD THU MORNING...THE PCPN WL
GENERALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT SOME PCPN MAY LINGER INTO THU
MORNING OVR THE FAR SERN AREAS. WED WL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPS ACRS THE AREA BEING BELOW AVERAGE.
THU AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE WRN STATES AND THE FORECAST AREA
LOOKS DRY ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS. ON FRI A SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING
BY OVR NE AND KS...WL SEND A FRONT INTO SERN CO. FRI GENERALLY
LOOKS DRY BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS OVR THE MTN
AREAS. THE UPR RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY SAT NIGHT AS A NEW SYSTEM MOVES
FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...WITH MORE MSTR MOVING
ACRS THE AREA FOR SUN AND MON BRINGING A RETURN TO UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR PCPN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
SOME LOCALIZED GUSTY N WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO REAL AVN CONCERNS CURRENTLY. STORMS HAVE
MOVED OFF INTO THE PANHANDLES...AND NOTHING STRONG EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TS AFFECTING THE KCOS AND/OR KALS SITES LATER
TONIGHT...FROM AROUND 06-09Z...BUT WILL NOT MENTION EXPLICITLY IN
TAFS FOR NOW. A BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP FOR THE TAF SITES TUE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
235 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
COLORADO IS IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY WITH MAIN ELONGATED UPPER
TROF OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO SOUTH DAKOTA.
THERE IS WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES
INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THERE IS HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST
COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH FAVORED OROGRAPHIC FLOW
AND ALSO OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CYS RIDGE. COVERAGE WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED FURTHER EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY WITH A JET STREAK NOSING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WEAK UPWARD ASCENT ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COLORADO. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK
CONVERGENCE WITH FOCUS AREA ALONG PALMER DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FOCUSES HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA AND LESSER
AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS WYOMING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE LIFT ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK SUBSIDENCE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE...UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE AROUND DURING THE DAY TO CONTINUE LOW POPS IN MOST AREAS.
UPPER RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR AND MOISTURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES TO BRING A RENEWED...ALBEIT NOT
TERRIBLY HIGH...THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
SURFACE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED LIGHT NORTHEAST OVER TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR CYS RIDGE AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. KDEN WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE EDGE OF THE SHOWERS BUT LATEST HRRR HAS DENVER ON EDGE OF THE
SHOWERS AFTER 22Z. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN A
BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH APPROACHING UPPER
DISTURBANCE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE
AIRPORTS TUESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
105 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL PUSH THIS
FRONT SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN, A COLD FRONT,
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE MID-MORNING UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES THIS MORNING DUE TO CURRENT READINGS. ALSO ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES OVER DELMARVA...ALTHO STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY
WILL BE COOLER THAN AREAS FARTHER NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD
OVERSPREAD MOST OF DELMARVA BY MID DAY. THE RAP AND HRRR STILL
SHOW THE PRECIP TENDING TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
LOWERED POPS A LITTLE BUT STILL KEEPING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR A
WHILE THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISSCUSSION BELOW...
A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO VIRGINIA TODAY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL SQUEEZED OUT ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA REGION. ANY QPF LOOKS TO BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH, IF
ANYTHING RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS HAVE TRENDED DRIER. AS A RESULT,
POPS AND QPF WERE TRIMMED BACK A TOUCH WITH THE 6:30 AM UPDATE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
DRIER AIR INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE END RESULT WILL BE
TOTALLY DIFFERENT DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. DELMARVA WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE MID 60`S. ON THE
OTHER HAND, REGIONS FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD SHOULD SEE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR QUICK RISES OF TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY BUST WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA. 925 MB MODELED TEMPERATURES
INDICATE THE NAM/ECMWF 2M TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE RESPECTIVE
MOS GUIDANCE SHOULD BE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO COOL WITH THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70`S.
SEVERAL FEATURES ON LOCAL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND
GUSTS TO REACH 20-25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. MIXING
WILL LIKELY LOWER RH VALUES FROM PHILADELPHIA AND POINTS TO THE
NORTH AS WELL, PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE WITH THE FEATURES IN OUR REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE. THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TOWARD SUNRISE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBILE TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY, THIS TIME ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAV/MET
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUE HAS TAKEN A BIT OF A TURN TWD THE MORE DREARY THIS CYCLE. A WM
FRONT, EXTENDING EWD FROM LOW PRES IN THE PLAINS, WILL BE OVER
THE AREA. PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE DURG THE AFTN HOURS. WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AN E TO NE FLOW, TEMPS ARE COOLER THAN
PREV FCSTS. WHILE NOT AS BAD AS A FEW DAYS LAST WEEK, TUE NOW
LOOKS TO NOT BE PLEASANT AT ALL.
HIGH PRES RE-EXERTS ITSELF IN ERN CANADA TUE NIGHT AND PUSHES THE
FRONT SWD AND DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EITHER TUE NIGHT OR WED THRU
THU. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT TIMING. THE GFS KEEPS
SOME LINGERING LIGHT QPF OVER SRN AREAS TUE EVE. THE ECMWF, KEEPS
ITS PRECIP FURTHER N EARLIER TUE EVE, THEN OVER THE S TUE NIGHT,
BUT IT IS A MORE ROBUST AREA. FOR NOW, WILL JUST HOLD SOME LOW
POPS.
LOW PRES THEN MOVES ACRS SRN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THU AND CROSS THE AREA
ON FRI. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFS HERE AS WELL. THE GFS HAS RAIN
IN THE WRN AREAS AS ERLY AS THU EVE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. THE ECMWF DOESN`T HAVE ANY RAIN BEFORE FIR MRNG
AND PSBLY EVEN FRI AFTN IN THE E. THE ECMWF IS OFTEN TOO SLOW WITH
CFP, SO HAVE SHADED IN THE GFS DIRECTION, BUT REGARDLESS, THERE
WILL BE SOME PRECIP ON FRI. THE FRONT MOVES THRU THE REGION AND
CLEARS THE COAST FRI EVE.
BOTH THE EC AND GFS THEN BRING SOME INSTABILITY SHWRS THRU ON SAT
BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN ON SUN.
AFTER A MUCH BELOW NRML TEMP DAY ON TUE, TEMPS WILL BE AOA NRML
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, THEY RETURN TO NR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NRML
BEHIND THE CDFNT OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A HIGH BROKEN
DECK WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AROUND 20,000 FEET AND GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 7,000 FEET LATE
TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY FOR KILG AND KMIV.
OUTLOOK...
TUE THRU THU...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHRA ACROSS TUE/TUE NIGHT CUD BRING
LWR CIGS. LOW CONFIDENCE
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA PSBL WITH CFP. LOWER
VSBYS/CIGS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA. MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
DECIDED TO CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF LITTLE EGG
INLET. THIS IS BASED ON OBSERVED WIND GUSTS ALONG THE NJ SHORE.
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE BEING REPORTED NORTH OF LITTLE EGG BUT ARE
MUCH LESS TO THE SOUTH. THE GUSTY WINDS ARE ORIGINATING OVER LAND
AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. BUOY 44065 ABOUT
15 NM OFFHORE HAS VERY LITTLE WIND AT ALL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. BOTH THE MODELED
925 MB WINDS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TOP WINDS OF AROUND 25
KNOTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. SINCE WIND GUSTS ARE NOT TO
EXCEED 25 KNOTS, CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN NORMAL FOR AN ADVISORY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME CONSULTATION WITH STATE PARTNERS INDICATES FUELS MAY STILL
BE TOO MOIST FOR ANY INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY.
RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP TO AROUND 30% IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY IN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE OUT OF
WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. COORDINATION IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING WITH
STATE PARTNERS ON A POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THAT HINGES ON THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-
451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...AMC/GAINES/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH THE HRRR STILL TRIES TO BRING IN SOME LIGHT SHRA ACTIVITY
LATER TODAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN TOO LOW FOR
ANY MENTIONABLE PRECIP. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST AND
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE GRIDS AT THIS POINT.
DEESE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
.UPDATED DUE TO AVIATION FORECAST...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY BUT WITH THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING EAST...INCREASED CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA NOW
WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH
ACROSS MS/AL AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP TO MAINLY NORTH
GA TUESDAY. OR NOW ONLY LOOKING AT A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITIES ARE
FAIRLY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
01
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL KEEP A RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CWA...MAINLY NORTH GA...ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE IN
BRINGING A STRONG SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTH GA. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY ENDING
THE PRECIP FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY ACROSS THE
CWA. A ZONAL FLOW RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TO NORTH GA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
17
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN STORE FOR THIS CYCLE WITH A CONTINUED VFR
FORECAST. SHOULD SEE CONTINUED INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHRA MAINLY
OVER NW GEORGIA. CHANCES WERE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN ATL JUST
YET. SAME STORY FOR TUE AS MOST OF THE DEVELOPING SHRA REMAIN OVER
NW PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND NO MENTION IN ATL TAF. WINDS SHOULD
BRIEFLY SOME AROUND TO SSE THIS EVENING BEFORE GOING BACK TO THE
SW OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WINDSHIFT CHANCES AND TIMING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 84 61 83 63 / 0 5 10 10
ATLANTA 82 63 82 66 / 0 5 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 78 57 78 59 / 0 5 30 30
CARTERSVILLE 81 60 82 64 / 0 5 30 20
COLUMBUS 83 63 83 65 / 0 5 10 10
GAINESVILLE 81 62 81 64 / 0 5 20 20
MACON 85 62 85 63 / 0 0 5 10
ROME 80 59 82 64 / 0 10 30 20
PEACHTREE CITY 81 59 82 62 / 0 5 10 10
VIDALIA 88 65 85 66 / 0 5 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
606 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 530 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS SURGE OF HIGHER
THETA E AIR ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT SETS THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING
OVERALL SCENARIO THUS FAR TODAY WITH MAIN AREA OF RAIN MOVING AWAY
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF
INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE. IF THE HRRR HOLDS TRUE THEN A BAND OF
SHOWERS WOULD EXPAND AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND THEN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WOULD PERSIST
INTO TUESDAY. THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE TAKING PLACE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH A NE TREND SO SEE NO REASON NOT TO
INCREASE TO HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A MESS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SOME IN THE NE AND STEADY
MAYBE RISING IN THE SW DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PROGRESS NORTH THE
FRONT MAKES.
MAIN WAVE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING WITH FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW
AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT ASSESS SITUATION.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
AS LONG WAVE TROUGH EJECTS THROUGH THE PLAINS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL MOVE BACK IN WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MAINTAINED
CHC TO LIKELY POPS THOUGH THIS TIME FRAME WITH DRYING BEHIND IT AS
WAVE DEPARTS...FRONT IS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS UPPER LOW
OVER CANADA SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH SENDING TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL WITH
A SERIES OF WAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE FLOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OVER FEW DAYS WARRANTING AT LEAST SOME MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FRI NGT INTO SAT AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AFTER MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH 00Z...MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA CHANCES WILL MOVE IN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT GRADUALLY WORSENING CONDITIONS
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY IFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN IFR MENTION IN TAF AT THIS POINT. THUNDER
CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 00Z AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS POINT. SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSBN...WITH SHOWERS MIXING DOWN INCREASED LOW
LEVEL FLOW.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...NG
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
319 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S TODAY AND IN THE
LOW 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUESDAY. WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN
LIKELY OVERSPREAD ON WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS SURGE OF HIGHER
THETA E AIR ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT SETS THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING
OVERALL SCENARIO THUS FAR TODAY WITH MAIN AREA OF RAIN MOVING AWAY
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF
INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE. IF THE HRRR HOLDS TRUE THEN A BAND OF
SHOWERS WOULD EXPAND AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND THEN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WOULD PERSIST
INTO TUESDAY. THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE TAKING PLACE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH A NE TREND SO SEE NO REASON NOT TO
INCREASE TO HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A MESS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SOME IN THE NE AND STEADY
MAYBE RISING IN THE SW DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PROGRESS NORTH THE
FRONT MAKES.
MAIN WAVE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING WITH FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW
AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT ASSESS SITUATION.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
AS LONG WAVE TROUGH EJECTS THROUGH THE PLAINS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL MOVE BACK IN WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MAINTAINED
CHC TO LIKELY POPS THOUGH THIS TIME FRAME WITH DRYING BEHIND IT AS
WAVE DEPARTS...FRONT IS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS UPPER LOW
OVER CANADA SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH SENDING TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL WITH
A SERIES OF WAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE FLOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OVER FEW DAYS WARRANTING AT LEAST SOME MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FRI NGT INTO SAT AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AFTER MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH 00Z...MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA CHANCES WILL MOVE IN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT GRADUALLY WORSENING CONDITIONS
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY IFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN IFR MENTION IN TAF AT THIS POINT. THUNDER
CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 00Z AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS POINT. SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSBN...WITH SHOWERS MIXING DOWN INCREASED LOW
LEVEL FLOW.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL/NG
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...NG
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
114 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
WIDESPREAD STRATUS CONTINUES TO LIMIT INSTABILITY AS TEMPERATURES
WERE ONLY IN THE 50S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH. WATER VAPOR
LOOPS SHOW DECENT SHORT WAVE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO MO AND THIS
HAS TRIGGERED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN MO AND
SOUTHEAST IA. THIS WIDESPREAD NATURE TO THE PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT ALONG WITH THE CLOUD COVER. SPC HAS
ONLY A MARGINAL RISK IN THE DVN CWA BUT THE MAIN ISSUE HERE WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SUCH A SATURATED AIRMASS AND PWAT`S
TO 1.50 INCHES. THE HRRR INDICATES WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ALONG I-70 IN MO
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. A SHORT
WAVE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN IA WHICH
HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN IA AND A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE DVN CWA. CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE ONLY IN THE
50S IN THE CWA EXCEPT OUR FAR SOUTH WHICH WAS AROUND 60.
DIFFICULT FORECAST AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP INSTABILITY MINIMAL AS
THE LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGEST STRATUS ALL DAY LONG. A STRONGER SHORT
WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN OK SHOULD IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS
IN MO WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED...AND WHERE THE BETTER
CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST. THIS AREA OF STORMS SHOULD
STRATIFY OUT AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE DVN CWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE
THREAT ESPECIALLY OUR FAR SOUTH DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE AND IF ANY BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST CAN OCCUR. AT THIS
TIME THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW IN THE DVN CWA BUT WILL MONITOR
CLOUD TRENDS AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
DIFFICULT FORECAST REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THIS SHIFT AS
CURRENT TRENDS IN THE PRECIP HAVE NOT BEEN IDENTIFIED BY MANY
MODELS. HAVE SCALED BACK THE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. DEVELOPMENT DOWN ALONG THE WARM
ADVECTION WING HAS STARTED TO ENTER THE CWA. CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA HAS FORMED ON A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THINK THAT BY THE TIME THIS WAVE LIGHTS UP CONVECTION WELL INTO US
THE FORCING WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. RIGHT NOW MY GUT TELLS ME
THAT WE WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
NEXT...STRONGER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE
IN SOLUTIONS...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED OVER THE
MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THESE STORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE
EAST ON AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT. THE VORT MAX LEADING TO THESE
STORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL
GRAVITY WAVES HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED ON RADAR THIS MORNING. THESE
GRAVITY WAVES AND MID LEVEL FORCING WILL LIKELY DICTATE WEATHER
THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SHORT WAVE SWINGING NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW
SHOULD CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS WOULD BE HIGH IF IT WASN`T FOR
THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.
CONVECTION LINGERING FROM MOTHERS DAY WAS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA. GUIDANCE...INCLUDING RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR TRY TO
PUSH THIS NORTH AND MISS OUR AREA. I`M HAVING A HARD TIME SEEING
THIS HAPPENING AS A WARM ADVECTION WING IS MOVING NORTH. MOISTURE
POOLING ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IA WOULD SUPPORT THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS TO MOVE EAST INSTEAD OF NORTHEAST. WHAT MY GUT
TELLS ME IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR AREA
THROUGH MID-MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS COULD BE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING INTO VERY EARLIER AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THIS WOULD
AFFECT THE FORECAST CONDITIONS LATER TODAY.
THINK ONE OF TWO THINGS IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. 1. DECAYING
CONVECTION WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN FORCING MOVING NORTH.
A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WOULD
BE LOW IN THIS SCENARIO. 2. THE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST DECAYS FASTER
THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING SO THAT MORE INSTABILITY CAN FORM. IF
THIS IS THE CASE...STRONGER STORMS AND EVEN SEVERE WEATHER COULD
BE POSSIBLE. A LOW END RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. AS FOR A TORNADO THREAT...WITH THE
WARM FRONT AND BACKED SFC WINDS...THINK THAT THERE IS A LOW END
CHANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. IF A TORNADO
WERE TO FORM IT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND LIKELY FROM A MULTICELL
STORM. I DO NOT HAVE A FIRM GUT FEELING ON EITHER OF THESE
SCENARIOS. THIS MEANS THAT WE NEED TO WATCH THIS MORNING PLAY OUT
BEFORE WE HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF THIS EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A COMMON THEME
WITH BOTH OF THESES SCENARIOS ARE THAT OFBS MAY BE PRESENT AFTER
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. OBVIOUSLY THESE COULD SERVE AS FOCI FOR
TRAINING OF STORMS AND POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF WE COULD BUILD SOME SBCAPE. ALL MODELS ARE
LOW ON SBCAPE...BUT WITH TONIGHTS CONVECTION ITS ANYONES GAME.
AS FOR THE RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
AREAS TODAY COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN BY 12Z TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME ITS HARD FOR ME TO NAIL DOWN AN AREA WHERE THIS MIGHT
OCCUR WITH SO MUCH OF TODAY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS THIS
MORNING. IF I HAD TO CHOOSE AN AREA...PROXIMITY TO THE SFC WARM
FRONT WOULD LIKELY DELINEATE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FLOODING
WOULD BE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. SUFFICE
IT TO SAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH
FORECAST PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN TO LIFT
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING DECREASING TRENDS
TO MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE MODULATED BY PRECIP AND CLOUDS... WITH THERMAL PARAMETERS
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE WIDESPREAD MID 70S UNDER MORE PROLONGED SOLAR
INSOLATION BUT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ANTICIPATE PTCLDY PERIODS AT
BEST AND SO OPTED WITH BLEND RANGING FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO MID 70S
SOUTH. TUESDAY NIGHT... SHOULD BRING ABOUT QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
WITH INCOMING SUBSIDENCE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE. WE MAY HAVE SOME FOG POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT IN
PORTIONS OF CWA WITH WET GROUND AND GIVEN WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH
BOUNDARY IN VICINITY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE QUIET PERIOD PERSISTS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
DEPARTING TROUGH AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ENHANCED BY DIFFERENTIAL CVA AHEAD OF
NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ROTATING UNDER H5 LOW TRACKING FROM ND TO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z THURSDAY. TEMPS TOPPING IN THE 80S AND
DEWPTS IN THE 60S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE CAPE OF 1500-2500
J/KG. A FEW MODELS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-45 KTS
WHICH ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-
8.5 C/KM SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING WITH SOME RISK OF LONG LIVED MULTICELL CLUSTER(S)
AND/OR A FEW SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A
FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE IN THIS MODERATE/STRONG KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... COOLER WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY POST
FRONTAL USHERED IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION THURSDAY MID AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET WITH
SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT (POSSIBLY
30S IN SHELTERED AREAS NORTH WHERE WINDS DIMINISH ALLOWING DECOUPLING
OF BL) WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF INCOMING
WEAK SUBSIDENCE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... CONTINUED COOL DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND COMPLIMENTS
OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT HARBORING MAIN THRUST OF COLD ADVECTION. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY PM WITH GUSTY WINDS IN STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE REGIME.
HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY DROP INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ON SATURDAY WITH
850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -1C TO -4C 12Z SATURDAY RECOVERING TO AROUND
0C BY 00Z SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMP TECHNIQUE AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL INVERSION
SUGGEST AT LEAST MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGS FOR LOWS SUNDAY AM... WITH POTENTIAL
TO BE COLDER INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTH WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FROST RISK IN
SHELTERED OR LOW LYING AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MVFR/OCNL IFR CONDS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFTER 05Z/10. CONDS SHOULD BECOME MVFR POSSIBLY VFR
TUESDAY MORNING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. WINDS BECOMING
SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
351 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
Updated to increase shower and thunderstorm coverage again through
7 pm. Shortwave swinging through with cold pool aloft generating
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms, with some small hail
possible from the stronger cells. The threat of severe weather
will remain confined to eastern Barber county.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
Strong shortwave entering SW KS as of early afternoon. This
disturbance will bring an increase in clouds, and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon. An
increase in instability is expected this afternoon, with the most
unstable air favoring the NE counties. Stronger storms in this
region may produce marginally severe hail. Will need to monitor
the eastern zones this afternoon. HRRR runs develop more robust
convection along our eastern border by 4 pm, on the western
periphery of much greater instability. Feel most severe potential
will remain in WFO Wichita`s CWA, but it will be monitored.
Any convection will be diurnally driven, and diminish quickly
around sunset. A clearing sky expected overnight, with min
temperatures Tuesday morning ranging from the mid 40s NW to mid
50s SE.
Tuesday...Noticeably warmer. Short high pressure ridge axis passes
SW KS around sunrise, with SW flow aloft by afternoon. 850 mb
temperatures spike nicely, into the 20-25C range, which translates
into high temperatures well into the 80s. Some locales along the
Oklahoma border will achieve lower 90s. Winds will trend SE
through the afternoon in response to pressure falls and surface
cyclogenesis in SE Colorado. Strong closed low will be well north
of SW KS, in the Dakotas, by afternoon, while the associated cold
front approaches the NW zones late in the day. NAM/ECMWF both
suggest scattered convection developing ahead of this frontal
boundary across the NW zones around 4 pm Tuesday. Moisture will be
limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the 40s to near 50 at
best. CAPE may approach 1000 J/kg locally. Any convection across
the NW zones will be high-based, with the potential for downburst
wind gusts and small hail. SPC`s marginal 5% wind/hail outlook
that clips our northern zones looks plausible. Feel the marginal
wind/hail threat will extend down the cold front to include the
far SW counties as well, especially through Tuesday evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
Cold front passage expected Tuesday night, with scattered showers
and thunderstorms favoring the northern counties closer to the
greater lift.
Wednesday...Noticeably cooler in the post-frontal airmass.
Afternoon highs reduced to the lower 70s. Showers end early
morning NE, with more possible west late, but most locales will be
dry for most of Wednesday.
Wednesday Night...Weak shortwave approaches in the developing NW
flow aloft, to spread another opportunity for showers and
thunderstorms, this time favoring the southern zones near the
Oklahoma border.
Thursday...Dry and several degrees warmer. Highs in the 70s.
Friday...Warming trend continues, with afternoon temperatures
ranging from 75-85. PNA pattern establishes over North America,
with strong ridging over the Desert SW with another Great Lakes
trough. NW flow over Kansas in between.
Saturday...Cooler behind another cold front passage. Afternoon
temperatures reduced to about 10 degrees below normal, to the
mid 60s. GFS based guidance is much more aggressive with this
cooling.
Sunday and Monday...Desert SW ridge flattens. Embedded
disturbances in the resulting zonal flow likely to bring periods
of scattered showers and thunderstorms. CR initial pops are close
to 12z MEX guidance.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
A strong shortwave entering SW KS at midday will spread broken
clouds and isolated to scattered -SHRA and -TSRA across SW KS
this afternoon through sunset. Any impacts to aviation should be
brief/temporary and only carried VCTS/CB in the 18z TAFs. Highest
instability forecasted to be near HYS, where a marginally severe
storm may develop near the airport through sunset. Convection will
rapidly diminish at sunset, with SKC overnight. Some west wind
gusts near 20 kts this afternoon away from any convection.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 51 85 53 71 / 10 10 20 10
GCK 49 84 50 70 / 10 20 30 20
EHA 50 86 48 71 / 0 10 10 20
LBL 48 87 51 74 / 0 10 10 10
HYS 52 80 52 68 / 20 30 50 20
P28 54 88 59 76 / 10 0 20 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
211 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SECONDARY CLOSED ROTATION ACROSS SW
KANSAS. UPSTREAM A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL MONTANA
AND ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO. ANOTHER UPPER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS IN OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH COLD FRONT/WARM FRONT EAST OF OUR CWA. A
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM YUMA COUNTY TO NEAR KGLD
AND SOUTH.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...VORTICITY ALOFT ROTATING ROUND UPPER LOW IN
THE SOUTH AND NORTH OF OUR CWA WILL COMBINE WITH RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR CWA TO BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD
AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN OUR FAR SOUTH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW INITIATION ROUGHLY ALONG COLORADO STATE LINE AND EAST WHERE
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE WITH PEAK COVERAGE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER SUNRISE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING PUT AN END TO ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY.
REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TD VALUES AROUND 50-58 ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA AND HAVE LED TO SB CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG
(WHICH RAPIDLY DROPS OFF IN THE WEST). DEEP LAYER SHEER HOWEVER IS
UNIMPRESSIVE (BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER BELOW 30KT)...SO MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE IN STRENGTH. CONSIDERING CAPE IN OUR EAST I
WOULDNT RULE OUT A A FEW NEAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (HAIL/WIND) ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE CAPE IN OUR EAST.
SHORT RANGE ANALYSIS ALSO CURRENTLY SHOWS STRONG LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
AND GOOD 0-3KM CAPE NEAR SURFACE TROUGH IN OUR EAST AND THIS COULD
SET THE STAGE FOR LANDSPOUT DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE LOW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
UPDRAFTS IN THIS REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH RIGHT NOW.
TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER IDAHO WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH BASE OF TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND A STRONG
JET STREAK/MID LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BEGIN TO ROTATE TOWARDS OUR CWA.
DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WITHIN SW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING
OUR CWA FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL CONTINUES TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD ALONG
COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON BL MOISTURE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CAPE VALUES
COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 500 J/KG TO 1500 J/KG. SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER WITH DEEP MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE (PWATS OVER
1.0") WE COULD SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 BY
LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE UPPER PLAINS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED POPS ON AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT THIS
POINT HOWEVER WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING BOTH THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH MOVES TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING IN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE IT
BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES EAST. POPS INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY...AS
ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST...DRIVEN
BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER MANITOBA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
STRATUS WITH CIGS 1000-2000 FT CONTINUE EARLY THE TAF PERIOD OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT KMCK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO VFR.
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH ACTIVITY
RAPIDLY COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING. GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AT KMCK AND GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
LIGHT FOG (5-6SM) AND MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING AT KMCK BY SUNRISE.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
259 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SEMI-DIFFUSE DRYLINE LOCATED ROUGHLY
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SALINA TO
MEDICINE LODGE. CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ERUPT ALONG THE DRYLINE
JUST TO THE EAST OF P28.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AIRMASS DESTABILIZING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AS THE CLEARING CONTINUES...WITH MOST AREAS SLOWLY BECOMING
UNCAPPED. LATEST HI-RES MODELS (NAMNEST/ARW) SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE OK
PANHANDLE ROTATES EAST. GIVEN SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS...THINK A BROKEN LINE OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. BETTER BULK SHEAR IS
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...SO THINK THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
BE LOCATED ALONG OR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400. AS THE SUPERCELLS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KS PROGRESS TO THE EAST...THERE IS A A REMOTE CHANCE
OF A TORNADO...WHERE 0-1 KM SHEAR IS AROUND 20 KTS...BUT THINK THIS
CHANCE IS VERY SLIM...AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MARGINAL AND BETTER A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN OK. PREFER TO EMPHASIZE THE LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE
FLINT HILLS AND SE KS. BUT THE FURTHER EAST THE STORMS GET THE LESS
ORGANIZED THEY WILL BE...GIVEN THE BETTER BULK SHEAR SHIFTING INTO
SW MO BETWEEN 00-06Z. SO MORE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING...
WITH MOST OF THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT.
SHOULD SEE A NICE WARMUP ON TUE...AS S-SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WITH MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 80S.
LATEST GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW THE LOW MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNING TO
THE AREA FOR TUE EVENING/NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KS. EXPECT THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL KS FOR LATE TUE EVENING OR POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT TUE...WITH CONVERGENCE INCREASING ENOUGH FOR A STRONG
STORM CHANCE...LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS FROM KSLN TO KCNU.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS INTO SE KS
ON WED...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE FLINT
HILLS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED. BOTH THE GFS/NAM/WRF SHOW THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OR BEING SITUATED ACROSS SE KS FOR LATE
WED AFTERNOON...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS SE KS FOR LATE WED AFTERNOON OR WED EVENING. SO WILL KEEP
POPS GOING FOR MOST OF SE KS FOR WED EVENING.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THU WILL PLAY OUT.
THE NAM/WRF BLOWS UP A COMPLEX OF STORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND
DROPS IT E-SE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR LATE
WED NIGHT. WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THIS COMPLEX FURTHER SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PREFER TO KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL KS DRY FOR NOW...AND GO
WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS SOLUTION.
KETCHAM
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME WILL PLAY OUT. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG THE MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THE GFS FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE FASTER AND
ALLOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO THE PLAINS FASTER...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A MORE UNSETTLED WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A LOT
DRIER AND KEEPS THE MOISTURE RETURN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE
KS/OK BORDER. FOR CONSENSUS SAKE PREFER THE WETTER GFS
SOLUTION...KEEPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
KETCHAM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CIGS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SCT-BKN DECK OF 2500 TO 3500 WILL
EXIST FOR ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
FROM THE FLINT HILLS EAST AFTER 19-20Z AND MOVE EASTWARD. THIS
WILL AFFECT KCNU AND BRING ABOUT VCTS AND A BKN DECK AT 2500 AND
LOWER IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF STORMS. FURTHER WEST...STORMS WILL
FIRE ALONG THE DRY LINE AFTER 21Z AND AFFECT KSLN AND KICT...AND
POSSIBLY KHUT. ONCE AGAIN VCTS AND CIGS OF 2500 ARE POSSIBLE AND
LOWER IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF STORMS. AFTER ABOUT 3-4Z AT ALL
SITES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
CHANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 57 86 63 77 / 30 10 20 30
HUTCHINSON 55 86 59 73 / 20 10 20 30
NEWTON 57 85 61 75 / 30 10 20 30
ELDORADO 58 85 63 79 / 30 10 20 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 57 86 64 80 / 30 10 20 20
RUSSELL 53 84 54 69 / 20 10 40 30
GREAT BEND 53 85 54 70 / 20 10 30 30
SALINA 55 85 58 72 / 30 10 30 30
MCPHERSON 55 85 58 72 / 30 10 30 30
COFFEYVILLE 62 84 65 82 / 50 10 20 40
CHANUTE 62 83 64 80 / 50 10 20 40
IOLA 62 83 64 79 / 50 10 20 40
PARSONS-KPPF 62 84 65 81 / 50 10 20 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KETCHAM
LONG TERM...KETCHAM
AVIATION...CWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1139 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING LIFTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY
AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
U.S. TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SWINGS THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THE SURFACE LOW OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS REMAINS GENERALLY IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
BECOMES MORE BROAD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO
EASTERN MONTANA. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW CENTER BEGINS TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH A
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEEPENING IN PANHANDLE REGION. THE UPPER
LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA LIFTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY
WEDNESDAY WITH A THROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT
A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION DURING THIS TIME WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TRANSITIONING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE JET MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND ALONG
WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WITH STRONG LIFT SHOWING UP IN TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THAT WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DRIES WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT ONLY ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS THE COOLER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
TROUGH THAT IMPACTED THE REGION EARLIER IN THE WEEK MOVES EAST.
THERE IS A RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL BUMP
UP HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND 80S. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RIGHT
NOW THE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN LOCATION OF THIS LOW...WITH THE
GFS PUTTING IT IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EUROPEAN PUTTING IT
OVER WASHINGTON/OREGON. THE MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON HOW THEY HAVE
THIS LOW MOVING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN HAS IT SITTING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATE THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. WHERE AS THE GFS HAS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVING
TOWARDS THE CWA. BRINGING WITH IT A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE STORMS ARE FORECASTED DUE TO FAIR BULK SHEAR VALUES...BUT THIS
COULD JUST BE A RAIN SHOWER EVENT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS THE
DAY APPROACHES AND MODELS START TO AGREE MORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2016
STRATUS WITH CIGS 1000-2000 FT CONTINUE EARLY THE TAF PERIOD OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT KMCK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO VFR.
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH ACTIVITY
RAPIDLY COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING. GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AT KMCK AND GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
LIGHT FOG (5-6SM) AND MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING AT KMCK BY SUNRISE.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...DR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1232 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
...Updated Short Term...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
Strong shortwave entering SW KS as of early afternoon. This
disturbance will bring an increase in clouds, and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon. An
increase in instability is expected this afternoon, with the most
unstable air favoring the NE counties. Stronger storms in this
region may produce marginally severe hail. Will need to monitor
the eastern zones this afternoon. HRRR runs develop more robust
convection along our eastern border by 4 pm, on the western
periphery of much greater instability. Feel most severe potential
will remain in WFO Wichita`s CWA, but it will be monitored.
Any convection will be diurnally driven, and diminish quickly
around sunset. A clearing sky expected overnight, with min
temperatures Tuesday morning ranging from the mid 40s NW to mid
50s SE.
Tuesday...Noticeably warmer. Short high pressure ridge axis passes
SW KS around sunrise, with SW flow aloft by afternoon. 850 mb
temperatures spike nicely, into the 20-25C range, which translates
into high temperatures well into the 80s. Some locales along the
Oklahoma border will achieve lower 90s. Winds will trend SE
through the afternoon in response to pressure falls and surface
cyclogenesis in SE Colorado. Strong closed low will be well north
of SW KS, in the Dakotas, by afternoon, while the associated cold
front approaches the NW zones late in the day. NAM/ECMWF both
suggest scattered convection developing ahead of this frontal
boundary across the NW zones around 4 pm Tuesday. Moisture will be
limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the 40s to near 50 at
best. CAPE may approach 1000 J/kg locally. Any convection across
the NW zones will be high-based, with the potential for downburst
wind gusts and small hail. SPC`s marginal 5% wind/hail outlook
that clips our northern zones looks plausible. Feel the marginal
wind/hail threat will extend down the cold front to include the
far SW counties as well, especially through Tuesday evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 9 2016
For Tuesday into Wednesday, another upper trough moves across the
Central Plains. Will carry 20 to 40 percent chances for showers and
thunderstorms with this wave, mainly on Wednesday morning, as a cold
front passes through. Highs warm into the mid to upper 80s ahead of
the front on Tuesday, then fall into the upper 60s to low 70s on
Wednesday.
For the period of Thursday into next Weekend, some minor chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be mainly east and southeast of Dodge
City as some waves in northwest flow aloft move across the region.
Another cold front moves across the Central Plains on Friday with
much cooler temps into the Weekend. Highs warm back into the 70s and
around 80 on Thursday and Friday ahead of the cold front, then cool
into the 60s for the Weekend. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016
A strong shortwave entering SW KS at midday will spread broken
clouds and isolated to scattered -SHRA and -TSRA across SW KS
this afternoon through sunset. Any impacts to aviation should be
brief/temporary and only carried VCTS/CB in the 18z TAFs. Highest
instability forecasted to be near HYS, where a marginally severe
storm may develop near the airport through sunset. Convection will
rapidly diminish at sunset, with SKC overnight. Some west wind
gusts near 20 kts this afternoon away from any convection.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 79 51 85 53 / 20 10 10 20
GCK 77 49 84 50 / 30 10 20 30
EHA 77 50 86 49 / 20 0 10 20
LBL 80 48 87 52 / 20 0 10 10
HYS 78 52 80 52 / 30 20 30 50
P28 83 54 88 57 / 20 10 0 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Turner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
223 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
REMOVED THUNDER FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT LOOKING IMPRESSIVE. THE CHANCE OF ANYTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS LOOKS VERY MINIMAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
BLENDED MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITH NO SUBSTANTIVE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES IN TODAY AS VERY LIGHT
RETURNS ARE SEEN ON RADAR AND DRIFTING THIS WAY. THE KY MESONET
AND OTHER OBS INDICATE NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF A HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN FROM THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WX FOR THIS.
ALSO...TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING
BACK NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS PUSHING LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH AND OUT OF THE CWA...BUT LEAVING PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND...LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHOWERS. A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE HAS
SET UP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MANY LOW SPOTS IN
THE LOWER 50S WHILE RIDGES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...VARY FROM THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST
PARTS OF THE AREA TO THE UPPER 40S IN NORTHEAST. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT ENERGY PACKETS CROSSING KENTUCKY IN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A PLAINS LOW OPENS UP AND WORKS NORTHEAST. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST WILL PIVOT JUST
NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY DRAGGING LOWER HEIGHTS AND ITS
CORE ENERGY THROUGH THE STATE. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A TAD
STRONGER WITH THIS EVOLUTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER...THE
DIFFERENCE DOES NOT AFFECT ITS SOLUTION MUCH AND IT WILL BE LEANED
TOWARD AS A HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL OPTION FOR THE TUESDAY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...A GENERAL MODEL BLEND...AND FAVORING OF THE
HRRR EARLY ON...GUIDED THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE SUNSHINE.
LOOK FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. A
STRAY SHOWER OR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS
HAPPENS...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING MAINLY JUST NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN NEARER THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN AS THE EXPANSIVE SFC LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. FOR TUESDAY...EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE FIRMLY IN
THE LARGE SYSTEM/S WARM SECTOR. ACCORDINGLY...LOOK FOR INSTABILITY
TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY...FUELED BY INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. IN ADDITION...SOME WIND SHEER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL. IN FACT...SOME MCS
ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ALSO IMPACT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
SPC HAS OUTLINED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...
GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 75...FOR A SLIGHT RISK LATER TUESDAY.
THE REST OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
INITIALIZED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND FOR
MOST BASIC ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR RIDGE/VALLEY
TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS TO KEEP A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALBEIT
MOSTLY JUST SMALL CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES IN THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEP TROUGH TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH
WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING PIECES OF ENERGY TO
DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH EAST AND
FLATTEN OUT AS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS KENTUCKY RESUMES ALOFT BY MONDAY.
AT THE SFC...A SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THE FIRST LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WILL CROSS THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT LOW WILL CROSS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. RAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE BREIF PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE SHOULD BE
LOCALIZED AND VERY SHORT-LIVED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
124 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
BLENDED MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITH NO SUBSTANTIVE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES IN TODAY AS VERY LIGHT
RETURNS ARE SEEN ON RADAR AND DRIFTING THIS WAY. THE KY MESONET
AND OTHER OBS INDICATE NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF A HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN FROM THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WX FOR THIS.
ALSO...TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING
BACK NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS PUSHING LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH AND OUT OF THE CWA...BUT LEAVING PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND...LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHOWERS. A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE HAS
SET UP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MANY LOW SPOTS IN
THE LOWER 50S WHILE RIDGES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...VARY FROM THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST
PARTS OF THE AREA TO THE UPPER 40S IN NORTHEAST. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT ENERGY PACKETS CROSSING KENTUCKY IN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A PLAINS LOW OPENS UP AND WORKS NORTHEAST. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST WILL PIVOT JUST
NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY DRAGGING LOWER HEIGHTS AND ITS
CORE ENERGY THROUGH THE STATE. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A TAD
STRONGER WITH THIS EVOLUTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER...THE
DIFFERENCE DOES NOT AFFECT ITS SOLUTION MUCH AND IT WILL BE LEANED
TOWARD AS A HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL OPTION FOR THE TUESDAY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...A GENERAL MODEL BLEND...AND FAVORING OF THE
HRRR EARLY ON...GUIDED THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE SUNSHINE.
LOOK FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. A
STRAY SHOWER OR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS
HAPPENS...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING MAINLY JUST NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN NEARER THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN AS THE EXPANSIVE SFC LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. FOR TUESDAY...EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE FIRMLY IN
THE LARGE SYSTEM/S WARM SECTOR. ACCORDINGLY...LOOK FOR INSTABILITY
TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY...FUELED BY INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. IN ADDITION...SOME WIND SHEER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL. IN FACT...SOME MCS
ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ALSO IMPACT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
SPC HAS OUTLINED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...
GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 75...FOR A SLIGHT RISK LATER TUESDAY.
THE REST OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
INITIALIZED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND FOR
MOST BASIC ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR RIDGE/VALLEY
TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS TO KEEP A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALBEIT
MOSTLY JUST SMALL CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES IN THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEP TROUGH TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH
WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING PIECES OF ENERGY TO
DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH EAST AND
FLATTEN OUT AS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS KENTUCKY RESUMES ALOFT BY MONDAY.
AT THE SFC...A SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THE FIRST LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WILL CROSS THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT LOW WILL CROSS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. RAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE BREIF PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE SHOULD BE
LOCALIZED AND VERY SHORT-LIVED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1242 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR GENERALLY PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. FCST SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHTS
DEPICT CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE THE DRY LAYER PRESENT ON THE
KLCH MORNING RAOB...WITH EVENTUAL MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT ALL
TERMINALS...LARGELY IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO
PREVAIL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING THIS EVENING AS AT
LEAST SOME DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE AND WINDS OFF THE SFC VEER MORE
TWD THE SOUTHWEST. PROGS INDICATE MOST SITES SHOULD LOWER BUT
REMAIN IN MVFR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAEX WHERE A
TEMPO IFR WAS USED.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...WINDY AFTERNOON AHEAD AS AREA REMAINS BETWEEN
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED
SOMEWHAT AS WAKE LOW ADVANCES EAST FROM COASTAL TEXAS.
OTHERWISE...RADAR SHOWING NO MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES
INLAND...POSSIBLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
THIS ACTIVITY ALIGNED ALONG A VORT LOBE AND EMBEDDED VORT MAXIMA.
ACTIVITY PROGGED TO ADVANCE EAST BY THE HRRR WITH LITTLE IF ANY
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING MID-TEXAS DRYLINE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
SATELLITE SHOWING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...WEATHER DEPICTION ANALYSIS SHOWS LOWER CLOUDS
RATHER SPARSE AT THE MOMENT. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...MVFR CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. EVENTUALLY BY 01Z...ALL TAF
SITES WILL BE MVFR. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER AREA THIS MORNING
BUT RAIN CHANCES LOOKING SPARSE AS MOISTURE SOUNDING REMAINS ON THE
LOWER SIDE THIS MORNING AND IN LINE WITH LAST EVENING SOUNDING RUN.
DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FL MAINTAINING A SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND
MAINTAINS A GOOD GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE NRN PLAINS WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ROUNDING IT...THE MOST A SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH IS
CROSSING THE 4-CORNERS REGION ATTM. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RETURNS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE WRN
ZONES...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ON 00Z KLCH SOUNDING
EXPECT LITTLE OF THE LIGHTER RETURNS TO ACTUALLY BE REACHING THE
GROUND. A FEW BURSTS OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ARE NOTED UPSTREAM
AND WITHIN HERE IS WHERE SOME RAIN IS FALLING PER SFC OBS.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE
FORECAST AREA THANKS TO THE COMBO OF INCREASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES WHERE THE MID-LEVEL SPEED
MAX AND AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET ARE PROGGED TO MOST IMPACT...
WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE OPENS
UP AND LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION.
ALSO OF INTEREST TODAY IS THE INHERITED WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SRN
1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST WIND PROGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 20 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30. THEREFORE THE ADVISORY
HAS BEEN LEFT UNCHANGED ATTM. THE DAYSHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS NORTH OF THE ADVISORY IN CASE IT NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED
SPATIALLY LATER TODAY TO ACCOUNT.
AFTER ANOTHER SLIM SHOT AT PRECIP ON TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...NEXT REASONABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS DEEP TROFFING DEVELOPS OVER THE CNTL
CONUS AND IN TURN PULLS A COOL FRONT SWD INTO THE AREA. THEREAFTER
A BRIEF SHOT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND THE INTRUSION OF SOME DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...
MAINTAINED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MUCH OF TODAY GIVEN SRLY FLOW STILL EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 83 72 86 70 / 20 20 20 10
LCH 81 72 82 71 / 30 20 10 10
LFT 81 73 83 72 / 20 20 10 10
BPT 82 72 84 71 / 40 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ041>045-
052>055-073-074.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ215-216.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ430-432-
435-455-475.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR GMZ455-475.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT
CDT TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-470-472.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-470-472.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
534 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER NAMERICA WITH UPR RDG STRETCHING FM MANITOBA INTO THE
WRN GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO OVER SE CANADA...AN UPR TROF OVER
WRN CANADA/THE PAC NW AND ANOTHER SRN BRANCH CLOSED LO LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD THRU THE PLAINS. SFC HI PRES RDG EXTENDS FM HUDSON BAY
INTO ERN UPR MI. EXCEPT FOR SOME HI CLDS MAINLY NEAR THE WI
BORDER...SKIES ARE SUNNY WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB
AND ESPECIALLY THE APX RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS ONLY 0.18 INCH.
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 60S/NEAR 70 AWAY FM THE MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LKS ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE H85
TEMPS ARE APRCHG 7C...AND MIN RH HAS FALLEN AS LO AS 20-25 PCT WITH
DIURNAL MIXING. LOOKING TO THE SW...THICKER CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
PLAINS SRN BRANCH SHRTWV ARE ADVANCING SLOWLY NEWD THRU MN/WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS MAINLY ON FIRE WX ISSUES
AND NEED FOR FIRE WX HEADLINES ON TUE.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH AXIS OF VERY DRY AIR IS FCST TO PERSIST OVER THE CWA
AND MAINTAIN MOCLR SKIES...A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO
DOMINATE AS THE SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E. THE
STEADIER ESE FLOW WL HOLD LO TEMPS HIER THAN LAST NGT. EXPECT THE
LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE FAR ERN CWA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING HI
WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WL BE A BIT WEAKER. OVERALL...RH RECOVER
SHOULD BE POOR.
TUE...SRN BRANCH SHRTWV IS FCST TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NE BUT WEAKEN
AS IT RUNS INTO A PERSISTENT UPR RDG OVER NW ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH CLD
COVER IS LIKELY TO INCRS SW-NE...PREFER THE MODELS WHICH KEEP ANY
PCPN TO THE SW THRU 00Z WED GIVEN FCST PERSISTENCE OF LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY RETREATING SFC HI PRES/VERY DRY 12Z APX RAOB
THAT WL BE SOURCE AIRMASS. WITH SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BTWN FALLING
MSLP TO THE SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APRCHG ALBEIT WEAKENING SRN
BRANCH DISTURANCE AND THE HI TO THE ENE...H925 ESE WINDS ARE FCST TO
REACH 20-25 KTS...SUPPORTING SFC WINDS GUSTS 20-25 MPH...AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 30 MPH. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 6-8C
RANGE...MAX TEMPS WL AT LEAST APRCH 70 AWAY FM LK MODERATION. TENDED
TOWARD THE HI END OF GUIDANCE AWAY FM THE LK COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN
A DRIER SCENARIO WITH JUST MAINLY HI CLDS EXPECTED. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH THE FIRE WX CUSTOMERS AND CONSIDERING THE DRYNESS
OF SHORT TERM FUELS BEFORE GREENUP/POOR RH RECOVERY TNGT AS WELL AS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED HUDSON BAY HI WX PATTERN/TIME OF YEAR AND
DRYNESS OF SOURCE 12Z APX RAOB...OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR
15Z-24Z DESPITE CONCERNS OFFICIAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 534 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE BY MID-LATE THIS WEEK
AS A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA WITH BUILDING 5H
RIDGE HEIGHTS INTO NW CANADA/SE ALASKA INDUCING AN AMPLIFIED AND
PERSISTENT TROUGH DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NE CONUS...INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIDGING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK OVER UPPER MI BUT THEN AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A
BROAD...AMPLIFIED TROUGH TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION TEMPS WILL FALL
WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
WILL BRING NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU. AFTER THAT...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH BASE OF
THE BROAD TROUGH WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH SCT PCPN ACROSS
UPPER MI THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS
AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND.
BEGINNING TUE NIGHT AND WED...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY E-SE
FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER WRN QUEBEC SHOULD MAINTAIN MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH COULD MAYBE
BRING A FEW SPRINKLES INTO THE FAR SCNTRL CWA BUT NOTHING MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WL BE WARRANTED.
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE WRN LAKES BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES E WED NIGHT AS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL
CANADA. A SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE FM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. IT IS THAT WAVE ALONG WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SFC TO H85 CONVERGENCE
ALONG INITIAL COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT WL BRING A BROKEN BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. MODELS INCLUDING SREF
INDICATE BULK OF SFC AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING WELL SOUTH
OF CWA SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TSRA WITH THE SHRA. SINCE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE/PVA STAYS WELL TO NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
SECONDARY WAVE LIFTS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...SHOWERS
WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH FARTHER EAST AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS ACROSS
CWA. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DEPICT TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BE WELL UNDER A QUARTER INCH
FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE FAR WEST ALONG TRACK OF SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE. SO IN SHORT...NOT MUCH RELIEF IS EXPECTED FROM RECENT DRY
STRETCH.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT WILL PUSH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR FROM CENTRAL CANADA BEGINNING FRI. COLD AIR LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH MODELS INDICATING
COLDEST 8H TEMPS OF -8 TO POSSIBLY -10C OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SAT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF SCT SHOWERS TO THE CWA WHICH PERHAPS COULD BECOME
NUMEROUS AT TIMES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...AS TEMPS SHOULD GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. COLD TEMPS WILL ALSO LIKELY SUPPORT
SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND IN
EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION. MODEL RESOLUTION/TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BROAD/AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE POORLY HANDLED
LATE WEEK/WEEKEND TIME FRAME SO NO MORE THAN CHC POPS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON SUNDAY...SO IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES LATER FCSTS MAY NEED TO BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY
AT SOME POINT FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND
TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM
THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS
TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. WEAKENING GRAD WITH
HIGH PRES RIDGEBUILDING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW NW WINDS
TO SUBSIDESOME ON SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR MIZ001>015-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
341 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER NAMERICA WITH UPR RDG STRETCHING FM MANITOBA INTO THE
WRN GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO OVER SE CANADA...AN UPR TROF OVER
WRN CANADA/THE PAC NW AND ANOTHER SRN BRANCH CLOSED LO LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD THRU THE PLAINS. SFC HI PRES RDG EXTENDS FM HUDSON BAY
INTO ERN UPR MI. EXCEPT FOR SOME HI CLDS MAINLY NEAR THE WI
BORDER...SKIES ARE SUNNY WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB
AND ESPECIALLY THE APX RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS ONLY 0.18 INCH.
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 60S/NEAR 70 AWAY FM THE MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LKS ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE H85
TEMPS ARE APRCHG 7C...AND MIN RH HAS FALLEN AS LO AS 20-25 PCT WITH
DIURNAL MIXING. LOOKING TO THE SW...THICKER CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
PLAINS SRN BRANCH SHRTWV ARE ADVANCING SLOWLY NEWD THRU MN/WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS MAINLY ON FIRE WX ISSUES
AND NEED FOR FIRE WX HEADLINES ON TUE.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH AXIS OF VERY DRY AIR IS FCST TO PERSIST OVER THE CWA
AND MAINTAIN MOCLR SKIES...A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO
DOMINATE AS THE SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E. THE
STEADIER ESE FLOW WL HOLD LO TEMPS HIER THAN LAST NGT. EXPECT THE
LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE FAR ERN CWA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING HI
WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WL BE A BIT WEAKER. OVERALL...RH RECOVER
SHOULD BE POOR.
TUE...SRN BRANCH SHRTWV IS FCST TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NE BUT WEAKEN
AS IT RUNS INTO A PERSISTENT UPR RDG OVER NW ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH CLD
COVER IS LIKELY TO INCRS SW-NE...PREFER THE MODELS WHICH KEEP ANY
PCPN TO THE SW THRU 00Z WED GIVEN FCST PERSISTENCE OF LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY RETREATING SFC HI PRES/VERY DRY 12Z APX RAOB
THAT WL BE SOURCE AIRMASS. WITH SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BTWN FALLING
MSLP TO THE SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APRCHG ALBEIT WEAKENING SRN
BRANCH DISTURANCE AND THE HI TO THE ENE...H925 ESE WINDS ARE FCST TO
REACH 20-25 KTS...SUPPORTING SFC WINDS GUSTS 20-25 MPH...AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 30 MPH. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 6-8C
RANGE...MAX TEMPS WL AT LEAST APRCH 70 AWAY FM LK MODERATION. TENDED
TOWARD THE HI END OF GUIDANCE AWAY FM THE LK COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN
A DRIER SCENARIO WITH JUST MAINLY HI CLDS EXPECTED. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH THE FIRE WX CUSTOMERS AND CONSIDERING THE DRYNESS
OF SHORT TERM FUELS BEFORE GREENUP/POOR RH RECOVERY TNGT AS WELL AS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED HUDSON BAY HI WX PATTERN/TIME OF YEAR AND
DRYNESS OF SOURCE 12Z APX RAOB...OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR
15Z-24Z DESPITE CONCERNS OFFICIAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CONCERN AT LEAST INITIALLY THIS WEEK. UPPER
RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUE FORECAST TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AS INITIAL UPPER
TROUGH TRIES TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE MAINLY BLO H7 SLOWLY EDGES IN FM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUE BUT
CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO A FEW SPRINKLES/VIRGA OR
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER. KEPT MAX TEMPS
ONLY TO AROUND 60 WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LATE RAIN. HOWEVER...
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST AND WITH H85
TEMPS UP A GOOD 2-4C OVER THOSE TODAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
LOW 70S INTERIOR WEST AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE AWAY FM LK
MICHIGAN. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE WHERE
TEMPS ARE WARMEST. E-SE WINDS LOOK STRONGER AS WELL /10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AS SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO HIGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS...BUT A WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE INTO RIDGE ALONG WITH SURGE OF H9-H7 MOISTURE
AND HIGHER SFC DWPNTS COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER
MORE OF THE CWA ON TUE NIGHT. CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT AT BEST
THOUGH.
RIDGE ALOFT SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON WED AS
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL
CANADA. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE FM THE SOUTHWEST ON WED
NIGHT. IT IS THAT WAVE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND SFC TO
H85 CONVERGENCE ALONG INITIAL WEAKER COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT BRINGS
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. SFC AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF CWA SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TSRA
WITH THE SHRA. SINCE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/PVA STAYS WELL TO NORTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SECONDARY WAVE LIFTS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH FARTHER EAST
ACROSS CWA. TOTAL RAINFALL PROBABLY WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER A QUARTER
INCH EXCEPT FOR FAR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
AND EVEN THERE GFS IS FARTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH.
SHOWERS OVER EAST HALF COULD GET A BOOST AS THAT AREA IS ON NOSE OF
H3 JET AND LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE
INSTABILITY THOUGH FOR THIS TO BE MAJOR FACTOR AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM
WILL BE RUNNING INTO HIGHER HEIGHTS/DRY AIR. JUST NOT LOOKING LIKE A
LOT OF RAIN WHICH REALLY WOULD BE WELCOME GIVEN THE DRY PATTERN UPR
MICHIGAN IS IN CURRENTLY.
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO LEADING TROUGH AND RESULTS IN PERSISTENT
TROUGHING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL BE SHORTWAVES DROPPING
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN AND EVEN FARTHER SW ACROSS
WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NO TELLING WHAT
ACTUAL TRACK OF STRONGER WAVES WILL BE THOUGH. STILL APPEARS CHILLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -6C TO -8C FRI
EVENING AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -10C BY SAT MORNING BEFORE MODERATING
TO AROUND -4C BY LATER SUN. THE COOL H85 TEMPS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES BLO 1290DAM SUPPORT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR MAYBE
JUST SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS SFC TEMPS FALL TO AROUND FREEZING LATER
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. WATER TEMPS ON LK SUPERIOR ARE 3C
OPEN WATERS TO NEAR 5C NEARSHORE...SO COULD EVEN BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVES IN VCNTY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMULATION. GFS SHOWS STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND GIVEN THE BROAD DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT CANNOT RULE IT OUT. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND
TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM
THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS
TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS ON THU INTO FRI
WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR MIZ001>015-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
203 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WL NOT MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA...COORDINATED WITH
THE MI DNR TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR THE W HALF OF UPR MI
TO HIGHLIGHT A MORE ELEVATED FIRE WX POTENTIAL IN THAT AREA DUE TO
SHARPER PRES GRADIENT THAT WL SUPPORT SE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ON
THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES RDG AXIS OVER ERN UPR MI. WITH MIN RH
EXPECTED TO DIP AS LO AS ABOUT 20 PCT BEFORE GREENUP AND MAX TEMPS
AT LEAST APRCH 70...CONDITIONS IN THAT AREA WOULD ALLOW WILDFIRES TO
SPREAD. THE 12Z APX RAOB SHOWS A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE THAT WL ALSO
ALLOW MIN RH OVER THE E HALF OF UPR MI TO DROP TOWARD 20 PCT...BUT
WEAKER PRES GRADIENT THERE WL NOT ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS MUCH MORE
THAN 10-12 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO MANITOBA AND A TROUGH OVER QUEBEC RESULTING IN CONFLUENT
NW MID/UPPER LEVEL THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO LOWER MI.
WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...IR LOOP SHOWED CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS UPPER MI.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT AS THE SFC RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...E TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST UPPER MI.
THE SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE 3C TO 7C RANGE...TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S INTERIOR WEST AND TO AROUND 60 OVER THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL PREVAIL DOWNWIND OF ERLY FLOW OFF
THE GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS...DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 20 TO 25
PERCENT...ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS ARE EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...DESPITE THE DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BOUNDARY
LAYER SE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING
TO KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF BELOW THE UPPER 30S. LOW TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WILL ARE EXPECTED NEAR IWD AND ONTONAGON
WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CONCERN AT LEAST INITIALLY THIS WEEK. UPPER
RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUE FORECAST TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AS INITIAL UPPER
TROUGH TRIES TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE MAINLY BLO H7 SLOWLY EDGES IN FM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUE BUT
CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO A FEW SPRINKLES/VIRGA OR
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER. KEPT MAX TEMPS
ONLY TO AROUND 60 WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LATE RAIN. HOWEVER...
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST AND WITH H85
TEMPS UP A GOOD 2-4C OVER THOSE TODAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
LOW 70S INTERIOR WEST AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE AWAY FM LK
MICHIGAN. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE WHERE
TEMPS ARE WARMEST. E-SE WINDS LOOK STRONGER AS WELL /10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AS SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO HIGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS...BUT A WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE INTO RIDGE ALONG WITH SURGE OF H9-H7 MOISTURE
AND HIGHER SFC DWPNTS COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER
MORE OF THE CWA ON TUE NIGHT. CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT AT BEST
THOUGH.
RIDGE ALOFT SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON WED AS
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL
CANADA. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE FM THE SOUTHWEST ON WED
NIGHT. IT IS THAT WAVE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND SFC TO
H85 CONVERGENCE ALONG INITIAL WEAKER COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT BRINGS
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. SFC AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF CWA SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TSRA
WITH THE SHRA. SINCE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/PVA STAYS WELL TO NORTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SECONDARY WAVE LIFTS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH FARTHER EAST
ACROSS CWA. TOTAL RAINFALL PROBABLY WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER A QUARTER
INCH EXCEPT FOR FAR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
AND EVEN THERE GFS IS FARTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH.
SHOWERS OVER EAST HALF COULD GET A BOOST AS THAT AREA IS ON NOSE OF
H3 JET AND LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE
INSTABILITY THOUGH FOR THIS TO BE MAJOR FACTOR AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM
WILL BE RUNNING INTO HIGHER HEIGHTS/DRY AIR. JUST NOT LOOKING LIKE A
LOT OF RAIN WHICH REALLY WOULD BE WELCOME GIVEN THE DRY PATTERN UPR
MICHIGAN IS IN CURRENTLY.
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO LEADING TROUGH AND RESULTS IN PERSISTENT
TROUGHING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL BE SHORTWAVES DROPPING
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN AND EVEN FARTHER SW ACROSS
WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NO TELLING WHAT
ACTUAL TRACK OF STRONGER WAVES WILL BE THOUGH. STILL APPEARS CHILLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -6C TO -8C FRI
EVENING AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -10C BY SAT MORNING BEFORE MODERATING
TO AROUND -4C BY LATER SUN. THE COOL H85 TEMPS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES BLO 1290DAM SUPPORT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR MAYBE
JUST SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS SFC TEMPS FALL TO AROUND FREEZING LATER
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. WATER TEMPS ON LK SUPERIOR ARE 3C
OPEN WATERS TO NEAR 5C NEARSHORE...SO COULD EVEN BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVES IN VCNTY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMULATION. GFS SHOWS STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND GIVEN THE BROAD DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT CANNOT RULE IT OUT. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
EXPECT ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND
TERRAIN INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LOW PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM
THE SW...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS
TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS ON THU INTO FRI
WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
326 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE PLACEMENT AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...MAINLY SE ND. OTHER
CONCERN IS DIMINISHING THREAT FOR THUNDER. HRRR IS (FINALLY)
BEGINNING TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON TRUE RADAR TRENDS AND WILL
USE HRRR AS INITIAL GUIDANCE THROUGH 00ZZ...FOLLOWED BY FCST BLEND
FOR REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM.
UPPER LOW OVER WRN SD AND SE BNDRY LVL FLOW RESULTING IN DECENT
H850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS SRN MN...WEAKENING INTO FAR SRN
VALLEY. PWATS IN THIS ZONE ARE AROUND AN INCH WITH RADAR DEPICTING
A LINE OF SHOWERS FROM VALLEY CITY THROUGH ST CLOUD MIN...RIGHT
AHEAD OF BAND OF 1 INCH PWATS. EXPECT THIS BAND TO LIFT NORTH
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH AND BAND NOT
EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES FURTHER NORTH...HENCE
DIMINISHING POPS BY MID EVENING. DO EXPECT SOME BREAK IN ACTIVITY
IN THE WAHPETON TO ELBOW LAKE AREA BY EARLY EVENING.
UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH INTO SW ND BY MORNING AND MERGES WITH WRN
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SW MT. BY MID TUE MORNING A STRONGER
UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF MILES CITY MT...DRIFTING
SLOWLY EAST INTO SW ND BY 03Z WED THEN LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO N
CNTRL ND BY MID DAY WED. WAVES OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE VALLEY AS WEAK VORTICES ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND
MOISTURE FETCH FROM CNTRL PLAINS BRINGS SOME MOISTURE INTO
NORTHERN TIER. MAIN AXIS OF GULF MOISTURE DOES HOWEVER SHIFT EAST
OF AREA BY NOON WED. SCT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE VALLEY AS
WELL AS IN THE FAR NW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER TURTLE
MTN REGION. POTENTIAL FOR SOME COLD AIR FUNNEL ACTIVITY DOES EXIST
W AND NW OF DEVILS LAKE (SHOULD REMAIN W OF OUR AREA).
ALSO CAN EXPECT A COOLING TRENDS WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
COOLING TREND ACROSS REGION AND PDS OF SCT SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN
ZONES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN PORTIONS OF NE ND BY FRI
MORNING...BRINING A POTENTIAL FOR FROST EARLY FRI MORNING.
SPLIT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
WESTERN CANADA DE-AMPLIFIES. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THEN WEAKEN AT DAY 7.
THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE GFS WAS
VACILLATING OVER THE AREA FOR FRI. BY SAT THE ECMWF WAS
FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO ON FRI AND MON AND
DECREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES ON SUN. HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASE A
DEGREE OR TWO ON SAT FROM THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED A BAND OF MVFR CIGS OVER
NORTHERN SD. BAND WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH ABOUT 10-15 KNOTS.
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ESSENTIALLY A CLEAR SKY WAS OVER THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE NORTH
MAINLY OVER EASTERN ND FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
MOVE NORTH INTO WEST CENTRAL MN ON TUE MORNING. SOME IFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR OVER THE THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR TUE MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM FOR SECTIONS OF
NW MN WITH DRY FUELS...RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT
RANGE... AND SE WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH (GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ALONG
AND WEST OF THE VALLEY). FARTHER SOUTH IN MINNESOTA...INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND APPROACHING RAIN WILL KEEP RH VALUES HIGHER AND
REDUCE OVERALL WILDFIRE THREAT.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT WILL DIMINISH WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES HIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-002-004-
005-007>009-013>017-022>024.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
FIRE WEATHER...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
115 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW LIFTING VERY SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA CONTINUES TO GENERATE A BAND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN SD/SOUTHERN ND WHERE MID LEVEL LIFT IS COUPLED WITH
STRONG THERMAL UPGLIDE FLOW EAST OF A SFC TROUGH. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE VERSUS A
CONCENTRATED BAND AS LOW LEVEL LIFT BROADENS OUT AND THE CLOSED
LOW MORPHS INTO AN OPEN SHORT WAVE.
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...CURRENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES NOT MUCH
MUCAPE THOUGH ELEVATED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS THERE. CAPE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH SO COUPLED WITH THE
FORCING MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 829 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
QUICK UPDATE TO POPS FOR OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 13
UTC...BLENDED THEREAFTER TO A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 10-12
UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON ONGOING CONVECTION
THIS MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION BAND WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS ADDRESSED WELL...WITH IT
GRADUALLY PUSHING IN THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SMOKE
DISSIPATING TODAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND COLORADO
AND WESTERN PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WAS A LOW OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING FROM SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW WAS IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CANADIAN LOW/TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL MONTANA. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN FIRES HAD BEGUN MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA TO THE EAST...AS
WINDS ALOFT FROM THE SOUTH CONTINUED TO STEER THE SMOKE AWAY.
EXPECT SMOKE TO BE MAINLY OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO JAMES VALLEY
MAINLY THIS MORNING...AND BE GONE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
WY/CO/SD/NE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY...DIGGING THE
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SOUTHEASTWARD AND PHASING THE TWO
TOGETHER INTO ONE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MONTANA/WYOMING BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AND REACHING THE NORTH DAKOTA/MONTANA BORDER BY
TUESDAY EVENING.
TODAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
MOVING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND REACHING SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND DAYBREAK. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE 60S SOUTH TO THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH DEVELOPING TODAY.
TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS/MONTANA WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED WITH A
STACKED SURFACE LOW...STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP SURROUNDING THE
SYSTEM. SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NAM IS DEPICTING BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE OF 200-300 J/KG AHEAD OF A DRY
SLOT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE SHOWERS LIKELY WEST AND
NORTH...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE LOW IN CENTRAL
AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA COINCIDING WITH THE NAM`S PROJECTED
CAPE. COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE 50S WEST TO 60S IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
STACKED LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH
DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...TAPERING OFF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE WEST.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER GOING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST WITH RIBBON OF MODEST INSTABILITY
REMAINING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER IN THE EVENING.
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY EVENING. MODEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE WRAPS
AROUND THE SYSTEM. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW COOL AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WITH ~40 KT WINDS MIXING
DOWN OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO END THE WORK WEEK GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON CIGS LOWERING THROUGH THE
DAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS FORECAST AT
KJMS/KBIS/KMOT. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS AFTER 18Z AND AT KMOT/KISN AFTER 20Z. MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
IFR AND LOWER CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
232 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
ATTENTION IS PRIMARILY ON THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA BY 00Z... THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER
00Z... ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS HIGHER THAN INITIALIZATION OR SYNOPTIC MODELS WOULD GIVE FOR
THIS EVENING. AS DISCUSSED ELSEWHERE... THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE FIRST WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH
HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND IMPROVING WIND FIELDS WITH TIME THAT
WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AND SOME TORNADO RISK. FARTHER
NORTH... AIRMASS WILL HAVE WHAT EVOLVES INTO A MORE INVERTED-V
LOOK TO THE SOUNDING SO WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT TO THE
NORTH. DRYLINE PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN LURKING IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE AREA OR JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT AND
WASHING OUT. BUT THEN TOMORROW IT WILL BE VERY WARM... ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 90S. THEN A
MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
BRING STORM CHANCES AND THEN COOLER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 89 66 85 / 20 0 10 30
HOBART OK 56 92 64 86 / 10 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 95 67 88 / 10 0 10 30
GAGE OK 52 90 56 78 / 10 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 55 88 66 84 / 40 0 20 20
DURANT OK 65 90 68 85 / 30 10 10 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
86
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
255 PM PDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN ALONG THE IDAHO/MONTANA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS
SENDING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE LOW HAS GENERATED RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SHORT TERN HRRR MODEL SHOWS THIS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDOWN
BEFORE WINDING DOWN. MAY SEE A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS, THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND WALLOWA COUNTY
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SO HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
THROUGH THIS EVENING THOUGH THEY ARE SLOWLY DECLINING. TOMORROW THE
LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO EASTERN MONTANA BUT THE THERE WILL STILL
BE MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW INTO THE AREA AS A BROAD
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND WALLOWA COUNTY WHILE THE REST OF THE ARE WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH MAINLY
60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AN OFFSHORE RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND FAIR AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND
END UP IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY
THURSDAY. PERRY
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BETWEEN 130-140W. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LOW WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY FOR INCREASES
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF 12Z RUNS INDICATE DIFFERENCES
IN TERMS OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE BEST DYNAMIC LIFT ON THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE LOW, SO I WAS CONSERVATIVE IN THE POPS FOR SATURDAY
BY INDICATING CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY THE MID/UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
BETTER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
STARTING OUT AROUND 7500-8500 AND THEN LOWERING A TAD TO 7500-8000
FEET AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND MIDDAY ON SUNDAY WITH POPS ON THE DOWNWARD TREND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AS WELL AS IN THE
KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY THE REGION A MINOR MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FOR DRY CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. POLAN
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SOME SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY
AT 7000-10000 FT AGL, MAINLY AT KPDT, KALW AND KPSC. I HAVE ADDED
VCSH AT KALW AND KPDT THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 10TH/03Z AS THE CONSENSUS
AMONG THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH FACING FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON FROM HEPPNER TO DAYTON. OTHERWISE, DRIER
AIR AT OTHER TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND
ONLY FEW-SCT LOW OR MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY TO
14-18 KTS, NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WINDS YESTERDAY. POLAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 44 70 44 77 / 20 0 0 0
ALW 47 70 47 77 / 20 10 0 0
PSC 46 75 46 82 / 20 0 0 0
YKM 44 77 46 83 / 20 0 0 0
HRI 45 74 44 80 / 20 0 0 0
ELN 43 74 42 79 / 20 0 0 0
RDM 33 69 35 78 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 38 63 37 72 / 20 10 10 0
GCD 38 65 37 74 / 10 10 0 0
DLS 47 78 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
83/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
346 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER THAN EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. MOST OF THE AREA HAS ONLY MANAGED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW
70S. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 73 TO 77 DEGREE
RANGE. MEMPHIS IS THE WARMEST LOCATION...A FEW ROGUE RAYS OF
SUNSHINE MUST HAVE POKED THROUGH THE OVERCAST SKY...CAUSING THEM
TO JUMP UP TO 77 DEGREES AT 3PM.
INSTABILITY HAS ALSO BEEN SUPPRESSED TODAY DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER. EVEN WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S WE HAVE ONLY
BEEN ABLE TO EEK OUT 300-400 J/KG OF CAPE IN EAST ARKANSAS WHERE
IT IS CURRENTLY MOST UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT...SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVEN LIGHTNING IS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON THE FORECAST OF SEVERE STORMS
TONIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO STRENGTHEN. A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN
BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS WEST OKLAHOMA. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT...APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BEFORE SUNRISE. IT IS
EXPECTED TO ATTAIN A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT BETWEEN SUNSET AND
MIDNIGHT. A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE SITUATED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST...PLACING MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION...BUT THIS FEATURE MAY BE A BIT TOO FAT AWAY FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION TO THE SEVER THREAT. NEVERTHELESS IT IS
NOT A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...DIFLUENT FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS SHOULD HELP
MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS. EVEN LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE...A 45-50KT 850
LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY TONIGHT AND SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SECONDARY LLJ OF SIMILAR STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO EAST ARKANSAS BY 12Z...WEAKENING AFTER SUNRISE. AS
THE TROUGH ATTAINS A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT IT SHOULD BE EASY TO
TRANSFER SOME OF THAT ENERGY TO THE SURFACE. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
THE GREATEST THREAT...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHORT LIVED TORNADOES.
TOMORROW...THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT IF
CLOUDS HANG AROUND LIKE TODAY DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON STORMS WOULD BE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY DRIVEN BY HEATING
INDUCED INSTABILITY. DEW POINTS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...SO EVEN TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 70S MAY BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION.
WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BROAD RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...BUT WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM ANY STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS. HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 80S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH. STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE. DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
RETURNING. WE MAY SEE A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE IS LOW. WILL ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS...MAINLY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE
FORECAST TO GENERALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 00Z. LOWER
CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
THE HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS COULD FORM A LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH ERN
AR INTO WRN TN.
BELLES
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
116 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR 18Z TAFS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING SLOWLY THIS MORNING...STILL IN THE 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO JUMP 2-4 DEGREES...OTHERWISE EXPECT SLOW WARMING
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH EAST ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
MIDLEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DUE TO CLOUDY
SKIES...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED.
30
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
A WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S DEWPOINTS WILL BECOME
COMMON LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS GREATER HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...OVERALL INSTABILITY AND
LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN TO AROUND 7.0 CM/KM WITH SBCAPES
RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THIS INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL
COMBINE WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT AN
UPSWING IN INTENSITY OF STORMS. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN
PLACE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE. A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH
HEIGHT SHOULD ALSO ALLOW 0-1 KM SRH TO APPROACH 300 M2/S2 ACROSS
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS EVENING. THEREFORE ISOLATED TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF GREATER
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD NUDGE INTO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN ARKANSAS.
INSTABILITY LEVELS AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL DECREASE WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI
TONIGHT. THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE BETTER
DYNAMIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THEREFORE...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST AWAY
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING.
BY LATER TUESDAY...MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
RISE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LOW COVERAGE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
EXPECTED AS A MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION STRENGTHENS OVER THESE
LOCATIONS.
LINGERING MID LEVEL TROUGHING AND A BELT OF DEEP LAYER WINDS
AROUND 40 KTS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. AN OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
MONDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WELL. LATE DAY STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONGLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPES POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG AND WEAK CAPPING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
GREATER THAN 7.0 C/KM. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THEY SPREAD SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BUILD STRONGER OVER MUCH OF THE
MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD CUT DOWN ON THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DESPITE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CONVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY DURING
THE DAY ACROSS THESE AREAS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTENING IS
EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF EACH DISTURBANCE WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL CHANCES.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE
FORECAST TO GENERALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 00Z. LOWER
CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
THE HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS COULD FORM A LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH ERN
AR INTO WRN TN.
BELLES
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1125 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM THIS MORNING PER SURFACE OBS VERSUS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
CURRENT READINGS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN CWA ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
WEAK SHORTWAVE PER GUIDANCE...AND HRRR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. THUS WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR TODAY. DESPITE
CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS...ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL WARM DAY IS
ANTICIPATED AND WENT ABOVE MOS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.
MAIN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT THEN SWING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RAPIDLY SHEARING APART AND WEAKENING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO
OUR WEST TODAY ACROSS OK/AR/MO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OUTRUNNING THE
INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AND THUS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
FORECAST AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A 30 KT 850 MB JET BRINGS DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO THE
AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE CAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE
AND WITH WEAKENING UPPER JET PASSING OVERHEAD...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCE IS IN NORTHWEST ZONES. AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MODEST SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS
TO BE STRONG OR POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AS PARAMETERS ARE NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE AND UPPER JET WILL BE QUICKLY WEAKENING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT. NEVERTHELESS...IF AN MCS CAN
ORGANIZE TO OUR NORTHWEST AND HEAD THIS WAY AS 00Z ECMWF
SUGGESTS...SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE. SPC HAS ADDED MOST OF
THE AREA INTO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
MORE SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AREAWIDE. LARGE
UPPER TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL FORCE A
DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST PUSHING FRONT THROUGH AREA AND SIDED
WITH THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK AT AROUND 25 KTS...PLENTIFUL CAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH BOUNDARY FOCUS COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS. CONVECTION WILL CLEAR OUT BY FRIDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A WETTER
PERIOD IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD DIFFUSE FRONTAL
ZONE STALLS NEAR OR ACROSS TENNESSEE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE KEPT TEMPS
GENERALLY NEAR THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED BUT WENT
WITH LOWER POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE FRONTAL ZONE MAY
ACTUALLY END UP.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/CKV/CSV...VFR CIGS ARE COVERING MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OFF TO OUR WEST. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH ACTIVITY TODAY, PERHAPS VCSH AT CKV, BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVE
WEATHER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT & TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
402 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. TIME TRACK
TOOL SHOWS ITS CENTER SHOULD EXIT OUR AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES IN ITS WAKE THIS EVENING PER SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. UNTIL THEN ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTH. LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINAL BUOYANCY
WITH AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF MLCAPE. A DRY WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIMITING MORE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY BUT THIS
RAISES CONCERN FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. MOMENTUM THROUGH THE MIXED
LAYER IS PRETTY MARGINAL AND SHOULD PRECLUDE STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING WITH LOSS OF MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND ONSET OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE.
BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TOMORROW SHOULD LEAD TO WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY
AND PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR MANY
LOCATIONS....INCLUDING AMARILLO WHICH HAS NOT YET REACHED 90 THIS
YEAR. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH 60-70 KNOT 500
MB SPEED MAX OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOMORROW. THIS WILL
FORCE LEE LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. BY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST A COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE SOUTH BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
NORTHEASTERLY VEERING TO EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
BE FAIRLY MOIST RELATIVE TO THE DEEPLY MIXED PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS
THE DAY PRIOR. THE COOL/MOIST LAYER SHOULD BE CAPPED BY WARM MID
LEVELS UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT WHEN COOLING/ASCENT FROM
APPROACHING TROUGH ARRIVES. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN ASCENT MOVES EAST AND MEAN
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. WE WILL REMAIN IN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-
UPPER FLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHES. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW MAY NOT
BE WELL RESOLVED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES GIVEN PRESENCE OF A MOIST
AND AT LEAST MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS THIS TIME PERIOD
APPROACHES WE WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE BETTER SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL
DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
BRB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO NEARLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO 15 TO
20 MPH AND MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER.
GREENUP MAY LIMIT THE CONCERN HOWEVER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHER RH VALUES
LIMITING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MID TO LATE WEEK.
BRB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 51 90 50 81 51 / 0 0 0 5 30
BEAVER OK 50 91 53 75 50 / 10 0 5 5 30
BOISE CITY OK 46 84 46 67 45 / 0 0 10 20 30
BORGER TX 53 91 53 79 53 / 0 0 0 5 30
BOYS RANCH TX 50 90 51 81 51 / 0 0 0 10 30
CANYON TX 50 91 50 83 50 / 0 0 0 10 20
CLARENDON TX 54 91 54 83 53 / 0 0 0 5 30
DALHART TX 47 87 49 72 48 / 0 0 5 20 30
GUYMON OK 49 88 49 73 49 / 5 0 5 10 30
HEREFORD TX 50 91 49 85 51 / 0 0 0 10 20
LIPSCOMB TX 50 91 54 78 51 / 5 0 5 5 30
PAMPA TX 53 90 51 78 51 / 0 0 5 5 30
SHAMROCK TX 55 91 56 84 53 / 0 0 0 5 30
WELLINGTON TX 56 93 59 87 55 / 0 0 0 5 30
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
18/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
109 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS ARE HOLDING OVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS.
EXPECT THESE CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 20-21Z FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS. THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING ALSO. MVFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT THE VCT AREA BY 03Z
AND THE OTHER COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND 06Z. IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALI/VCT ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS FROM 09-10Z. MVFR
CIGS WILL REACH LRD AROUND 09Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...THE LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE COASTAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND A WAKE LOW FORMED OVER THE COASTAL BEND LEADING
TO STRONGER WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE HILL
COUNTRY BACK INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A WEAK IMPULSE SOUTHWEST OF
LAREDO. SEEING AN INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY SOUTH OF LAREDO WITH
THISE FEATURE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH DRYING EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST.
MARINE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMED OVER THE COASTAL BEND IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION THAT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. THIS
HAS PRODUCED WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE BAYS
AND NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THESE HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH BY 16Z. BUT STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE HRRR SHOWS STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...SO EXTENDED THE SCA UNTIL 01Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...RAINFALL EXPECTED TO END OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS BY
16Z...FIRST AT KALI THEN AT KCRP AND KVCT. NO RAINFALL MENTIONED
AT KLRD...BUT THEY COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DIMINISH. BASED ON 4 KM MODELS (NOT HRRR THOUGH)...
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST NOT
WHERE PUTTING TEMPO THUNDER IS WARRANTED (TOO ISOLATED IF ANYTHING
AT ALL). THUS...DID NOT MENTION RAINFALL AFTER 16Z. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF JUST A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THEN DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP MAINLY AROUND 03Z AT KVCT AND AOA 06Z AT KCRP
AND KALI...A BIT LATER AT KLRD (MORE TOWARD 09Z). MOS IS HINTING
AT FOG BY 12Z EASTERN TERMINALS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
THAT AT THIS TIME SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY BE UP ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE FOG.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 88 76 90 75 88 / 30 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 85 73 89 73 87 / 30 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 96 76 100 75 98 / 20 10 10 20 20
ALICE 93 73 95 74 93 / 30 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 84 78 86 76 86 / 30 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 97 72 100 74 96 / 10 10 20 10 20
KINGSVILLE 91 74 94 75 90 / 30 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 85 77 86 76 86 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
OCONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
TMT/89...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
624 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 624 PM EDT MONDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. A FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS NO WELL DEFINE TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. WILL WAIT A FEW HOURS TO SEE IF ANY
STORMS FORM WITH SFC LIS AROUND MINUS 3 AND SBCAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THUS...KEPT THE FORECASTED CHANCE
POPS EARLY...THEN DECREASE THE POTENTIAL WITH TIME TONIGHT. ANY
STORMS THAT FORM WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
SOLAR HEATING. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS EVENING...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FLAT UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. NO WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE REGION TO HELP
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT MODEL KEEP STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BUT INSTABILITY AND TOPOGRAPHY WILL HAVE MORE IMPACT ON
WHERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 50S WHICH WILL LIMIT DROP
IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS WERE SHOWING BREAK IN
THE CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING SO WILL LEAN TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO BE LARGER ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL HAVE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION,
BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER UNTIL AROUND PEAK HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, WHICH
SHOULD SERVE AS A BOUNDARY TO FOCUS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
MILD BUT SEASONABLE DURING THIS TIME. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOTING AROUND THIS MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE ENHANCEMENT OF SYNOPTIC
LIFT. COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHICAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN WHETHER
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POSSIBLY BECOMES SEVERE. THERE COULD BE TOO
MANY CLOUDS TO INHIBIT HEATING DURING THE MORNINGS OF WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANY PEEKS OF SUNSHINE TOWARD LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WOULD SUFFICE TO SPARK CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THURSDAY, CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS REFLECT THAT INCREASED CHANCE WITH
SOUNDINGS INDICATING OVER 1,000 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE LATEST MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FRIDAY BEING
THE PROJECTED DAY OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING OVERHEAD. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BY SATURDAY, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD HEAD TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES, AND ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE FELT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH A
NOTABLY COOLER AIR MASS. A LINE OF SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY ARRIVES ON SUNDAY TO BRING DRIER CONDITIONS, BUT
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
COULD ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN DURING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT MONDAY...
WAVY WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM MISSOURI TO NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AROUND 18Z/2PM THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT, NOT A LOT OF
OTHER FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE WAS STILL BECOMING
UNSTABLE. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WAS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
VFR STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5KFT WILL DEVELOP ONCE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IS REACHED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM
UPSTREAM WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 850MB FOR MVFR CEILINGS
LATE TONIGHT IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA. HAVE INCLUDED THESE
LOWER CEILINGS IN THE KLYH AND KLWB TAFS FOR NOW WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
DAILY THREAT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY. GREATEST THREAT
AND COVERAGE WILL BE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. A COOLER
AIR MASS COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY SATURDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
338 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FLAT UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. NO WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE REGION TO HELP
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT MODEL KEEP STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BUT INSTABILITY AND TOPOGRAPHY WILL HAVE MORE IMPACT ON
WHERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 50S WHICH WILL LIMIT DROP
IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS WERE SHOWING BREAK IN
THE CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING SO WILL LEAN TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO BE LARGER ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL HAVE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION,
BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER UNTIL AROUND PEAK HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, WHICH
SHOULD SERVE AS A BOUNDARY TO FOCUS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
MILD BUT SEASONABLE DURING THIS TIME. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOTING AROUND THIS MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE ENHANCEMENT OF SYNOPTIC
LIFT. COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHICAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN WHETHER
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POSSIBLY BECOMES SEVERE. THERE COULD BE TOO
MANY CLOUDS TO INHIBIT HEATING DURING THE MORNINGS OF WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANY PEEKS OF SUNSHINE TOWARD LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WOULD SUFFICE TO SPARK CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THURSDAY, CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS REFLECT THAT INCREASED CHANCE WITH
SOUNDINGS INDICATING OVER 1,000 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE LATEST MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FRIDAY BEING
THE PROJECTED DAY OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING OVERHEAD. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BY SATURDAY, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD HEAD TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES, AND ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE FELT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH A
NOTABLY COOLER AIR MASS. A LINE OF SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY ARRIVES ON SUNDAY TO BRING DRIER CONDITIONS, BUT
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
COULD ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN DURING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT MONDAY...
WAVY WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM MISSOURI TO NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AROUND 18Z/2PM THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT, NOT A LOT OF
OTHER FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE WAS STILL BECOMING
UNSTABLE. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WAS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
VFR STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5KFT WILL DEVELOP ONCE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IS REACHED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM
UPSTREAM WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 850MB FOR MVFR CEILINGS
LATE TONIGHT IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA. HAVE INCLUDED THESE
LOWER CEILINGS IN THE KLYH AND KLWB TAFS FOR NOW WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
DAILY THREAT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY. GREATEST THREAT
AND COVERAGE WILL BE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. A COOLER
AIR MASS COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY SATURDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
130 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTH BLOCKS ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESS. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE
AREA EXPECT VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM MONDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A COOL/DRY AIRMASS COVERING
NEW ENGLAND AND EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
OUR FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY RESIDES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 40S THUS SUPPORTING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS WHERE HIGHER ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...ESP SOUTH OF
I-40 WHERE READINGS WERE CLOSER TO 60.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DRAW WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD
TODAY AND TONIGHT...OVERRUNNING THE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FOUND CLOSER TO THE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...BUT FOR OUR AREA...STORMS WILL BE LESS ROBUST PER
LACK OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT. NEVER THE LESS CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG
STORM OR TWO VICINITY OF WARM FRONT LATER TODAY.
MODELS INSIST WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY...BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE VIRGINIAS TONIGHT PER HIGH PRESSURE BLOCKING
ITS NORTHEAST PROGRESSION. THIS WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA
ON THE RECEIVING END OF ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS SUCH WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AGAIN TONIGHT...ESP NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY MAY NOT PAN OUT AS FORECAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE READINGS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80...BUT THESE
NUMBERS MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED PER WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH LOOKS TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
GIVEN THE COOL START THIS MORNING AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE AREA...NOT SURE WE WILL BE ABLE TO ATTAIN MOS
FORECAST. AS FOR TONIGHT...INCREASING DEWPOINTS SHOULD CREATE A
HIGHER FLOOR...THUS LOOKING FOR READINGS TO DIP NO LOWER THAN THE
MID/UPPER 50S...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHTS
LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
DAKOTAS WILL HEAD NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND OPEN INTO
A LONGWAVE TROUGH. ACROSS OUR REGION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
STALLED OVERHEAD OR NEAR THE AREA. SPIRALING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER
LOW WILL BE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL HEAD NORTHEAST
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS INTO OUR REGION WILL YIELD A FORECAST WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO REACH...AND PROBABLY CROSS...THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE GREATEST
DURING ITS NEAR APPROACH...ARRIVAL...AND CROSSING OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY THURSDAY. WHILE THE GFS STILL WANTS TO
ADVANCE THE COLD FRONT FASTER TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT,
THE ECMWF MODEL HOLDS IT BACK UNTIL FRIDAY. THE SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION LOOKS MORE REASONABLE FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE MAIN DYNAMICAL SUPPORT STAYS TO THE
NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COOLING TREND BEGINS DURING THE WEEKEND AS MORE REINFORCEMENT
ALOFT ARRIVES WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY. SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS COULD COINCIDE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT ANY CHANCES
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO THE PIEDMONT. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY TRACKS EASTWARD
ENOUGH TO BRING A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS OVERHEAD. SOME OF THE
COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER
40S ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME MORE
ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT MONDAY...
WAVY WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM MISSOURI TO NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AROUND 18Z/2PM THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT, NOT A LOT OF
OTHER FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE WAS STILL BECOMING
UNSTABLE. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WAS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
VFR STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5KFT WILL DEVELOP ONCE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IS REACHED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM
UPSTREAM WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 850MB FOR MVFR CEILINGS
LATE TONIGHT IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA. HAVE INCLUDED THESE
LOWER CEILINGS IN THE KLYH AND KLWB TAFS FOR NOW WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
DAILY THREAT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY. GREATEST THREAT
AND COVERAGE WILL BE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. A COOLER
AIR MASS COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY SATURDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1211 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH SOME 850 MB TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS
RESPONSE FIELDS. DRY EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THESE SHOWERS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO CURRENT VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. IF CLOUDS GET HELD BACK IN THE SUNNIER AREAS IN
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...HIGHS MAY REACH WELL INTO THE 60S
INLAND...COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
FOCUSED 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND 500 MB DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE AND RESULTANT RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG WITH IT.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THIS INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING...AS THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS ARE
DELAYING THE ARRIVAL IN THE SOUTH UNTIL AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWING THINGS DOWN A BIT AS WELL...PERHAPS IN
RESPONSE TO THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW.
AREAL COVERAGE ALSO A CONCERN TONIGHT...AS HRRR SHOWS WEAKENING
SHOWERS AS THE EVENING GOES ON. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HERE WITH
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE POPS FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
POPS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN HIGH...AS MAIN 500
MB TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH WEAK
ELEVATED CAPE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS...MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS DEEP
MOISTURE MIXES OUT SOMEWHAT. BRISK EASTERLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
RAW PERIOD LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NEAR THE LAKE...MILDER
INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
BRISK EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS TAF
SITES...ALONG WITH VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH VFR CATEGORY
VISIBILITIES.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
FIRST BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL GO
WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO TAF SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND
02Z TUESDAY. THIS TIMING MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK SEVERAL HOURS
IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
WHEN IT DOES MOVE IN...EXPECT SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BY LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CEILINGS ON TUESDAY. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN ON TUESDAY.
THE SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON...WITH THE EASTERN SITES
SEEING THESE GUSTS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO
AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME TIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH GUSTY EAST SOUTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING WAVES OF 3 TO 6
FEET LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MAY NEED AN EXTENSION OF
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IF WINDS AND
WAVES LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
FORECAST FOCUS CENTERS ON INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERN WI IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE CONTROL OF
DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HOWEVER LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND MOISTURE
GRADIENT IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH. SURFACE WARM FRONT CUTS
ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL INTO TN VALLEY REGION WHERE
DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO 50-55F. MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG
THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL IL BUT THIS AREA IS MOVING MOSTLY EAST. ANOTHER MORE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IS UPSTREAM OVER EASTERN NE...MOVING NORTHWARD
AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD. AN EASTWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS SECOND STRONGER SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY BRING -SHRA AND ISOLD
T TO SOUTHWEST CWA THIS MRNG. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SOME INCREASING
WEAK DBZ OVER SOUTHEAST IA.
THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THIS WEAK WAVE DOES REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVES NORTH BY AFTN. HENCE EXPECT MUCH OF THE
MORNING TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS CWA. THREAT FOR -SHRA INCREASES DURING
THE AFTN...AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS SHIFTING
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER STRONGEST MOISTURE PUSH AND CONVERGENCE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN EXPECT INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TO GRAZE
SOUTHERN WI. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE AND TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF LLJ. HOWEVER YET ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS ALL OF
SRN WI TNGT. QPF MOSTLY IN THE TWO TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE
THIS AFTN AND TNGT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO NOT LINGER AND
CONTINUE MOVING NWD.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWARD LIFTING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING.
MODELS SHOW HEAVIEST QPF DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH LIGHTER QPF
NOTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE 00Z NAM SHOWS THE AFTERNOON DRY WHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW PRIMARY UPPER LOW/VORT MAX SHIFTING EASTWARD
ACROSS SRN WI WHICH SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHRA GOING
AFTER THE MAIN SLUG OF PRECIP DEPARTS SRN WI. SURFACE WARM FRONT
WILL BE POSITIONED WELL SOUTH OF WI SO A CLOUDY AND COOL EASTERLY
WIND IS EXPECTED WITH A LOWER CLOUD DECK/STRATUS LIKELY PERSISTING
ALL DAY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
INITIAL 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ACROSS FAR ERN WI AT THE
OUTSET AND GETS A KICK FROM THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH HEADING EAST
FROM THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM CYCLOGENESIS.
PRIMARY SFC LOW HEADS NE INTO CANADA HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING A
SECONDARY LOW TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND THIS
HEADS NE FROM CNTRL PLAINS INTO UPR MIDWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH WAA PRECIP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SO
TRENDED POPS LOWER DURING THE DAY. HIGHEST 925 TEMPS IN THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING. SO EVENING HIGHS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ARRIVING CONVECTION. CWASP
NUMBERS ARE THE HIGHEST DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NAM DOES SHOW
ONE BATCH OF CONVECTION IN THE BETTER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH AND
ANOTHER RIDING TO OUR NORTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THE
ECMWF/GEM/GFS SHOW MORE OF A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING THE WHOLE
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO WILL HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS FOR NOW GOING WITH
THE CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS AND WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER
ATTM. IN ADDITION THERE IS AN UPTICK IN 0-6KM SHEAR AND SOME DECENT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT EVOLVE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS
BUFKIT SHOWS CAPE VALUES ROOTED AROUND 900 MILLIBARS PUSHING
1000J/KG. MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SRN 1/2 OF FCST AREA SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SFC LOW PROGGD TO BE VCNTY NRN WI WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO SRN
WI. WL KEEP SOME MRNG POPS IN THE FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM 500
MILLIBAR FORCING AND FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN THOUGH 925 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO 10-13C AND WITH 925 WINDS OF 20-
30KNOTS FROM THE WEST WILL NEGATE ANY LAKE EFFECT AND STILL SEE
MILDER TEMPS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
PROGS ARE STILL SHOWING A RATHER COOL PERIOD SETTLING IN. 500
MILLIBAR FLOW WILL BE STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ON THE CYCLONIC
SIDE WITH A FEW WAVES WHICH ARE RESOLVED DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS
IN TERMS OF STRENGTH AND TIMING. THERE WILL BE SHRA POTENTIAL FROM
TIME TO TIME TIED TO THESE WAVES AND ASSOCIATED REINFORCING SHOTS OF
COOLER AIR. 925/850 THERMAL PROFILE STILL LIKELY TO GET QUITE
CHILLY. THE 925 WINDS REMAIN UP AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/CLOUD COVER AND MIXED LOW LEVELS HARD TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN
FROST AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES THROUGH
MOST OF TODAY. LOWER MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SRN WI AND TAF SITES
TONIGHT. MAY BE A FEW NON-SEVERE T-STORMS AFFECTING TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
MARINE...GRADUALLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY IN THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES SLOWLY EWD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY ONSHORE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...NOT TURNING OFF SHORE UNTIL
LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
RECENT SATELLITE MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE MI SURFACE TEMP STILL
IN THE LOW 40S AWAY FROM SHORE. EXPECT LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO
INITIALLY PREVENT STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE
SURFACE TODAY INTO THIS EVE. HOWEVER GUSTY ESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO EVENTUALLY REACH LAKE SURFACE LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE MRNG...WHICH
WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS. HENCE PER COORD WITH LOT...WL POST SMALL
CRAFT ADVY BEGINNING AT 06Z FOR SRN ZONES AND 09Z FOR NRN
ZONES...LASTING THRU TUE MRNG.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ645-
646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643-
644.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR