Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/08/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

 822 PM MST SAT MAY 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF ARIZONA. FOR SUNDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH DESERT HIGHS CLIMBING BACK TOWARD THE CENTURY MARK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE WESTERN STATES THIS EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS IN THE
LAS VEGAS VICINITY...THOUGH A CLEAR SECONDARY SHORT WAVE IS CURLING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT. IT IS THIS SECOND EMBEDDED SYSTEM THAT CAUSED A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS
EVENING. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS
SITUATION WELL /WHILE INTERESTINGLY THE HRRR-X IS MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE PRECIPITATION/. MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT ON POPS TO
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BASED ON LATEST DATA/TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW CENTER SITUATED NEAR THE NV/UT/AZ
BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY.
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
INTO TONIGHT...BUT CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN THAT OF YESTERDAY
AS SUPPORT ALOFT HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND NO OBVIOUS VORT
LOBES WILL MOVE THROUGH. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT
LOBE OFF THE BAJA COAST WHICH IS FORECAST TO MAINLY PASS BY TO OUR
SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE SWINGING BACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE PASSES JUST
TO OUR SOUTH...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL DECREASE AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SOME SHOWERS
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX WITH TIMING GENERALLY BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LAST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA. MODELS POINT TOWARD MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES WITH THIS LAST FEATURE WITH 20 POPS MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS AND 30-40 POPS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS.

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD STARTING TONIGHT...WE WILL START TO SEE SOME WARMING
ALOFT...BUT THAT WILL ONLY TRANSLATE INTO A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING
FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
ALOFT QUICKLY RISING INTO TUESDAY. THE MAIN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL STAY
OFF THE WEST COAST...BUT CONSIDERABLE WARMING ALOFT WILL OCCUR UNDER
THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB EACH DAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ON MONDAY AND THEN
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR TUESDAY. SOME SURFACE MOISTURE WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

GOOD ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT INDICATES THE PACIFIC RIDGE EVENTUALLY
SHIFTS ONSHORE AND OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRY US OUT FURTHER WHILE HEIGHTS
ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH 500MB HEIGHTS NEARING 585DM...OR NEAR
THE 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE FOR THE REGION. LOWER DESERT
HIGHS SHOULD TOP 100 DEGREES IN MANY SPOTS BY THURSDAY...LASTING
INTO FRIDAY. THESE READINGS WOULD STILL FALL SHORT OF RECORDS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES. THOUGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...THERE ARE INDICATIONS TEMPERATURES MAY MODERATE SOMEWHAT AS
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS BY WELL TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY BKN TO SCT CUMULUS THROUGHOUT
THE REGION WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF VERY SMALL LIGHT SHOWER ECHOES
SHOWING UP ON RADAR WEST OF THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT WINDS AT 6 TO 10KTS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH PERIODIC BKN CIGS FROM 6 TO 8K. EARLY THIS EVENING SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCT LOW CLOUDS AT ABOUT 8K FT. LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...AND BKN HIGH CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BY ABOUT 9 TO 12Z.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MAINLY SCT LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUD CIGS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS AT KBLH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 18KTS SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY THIS EVENING AT 10KTS. LIGHT
WINDS AT KIPL WILL FAVOR THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND PICK UP TO
ABOUT 12 KTS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS PERCENT RANGE
WILL STEADILY DECREASE EACH DAY UNTIL THEY REACH THE 7 TO 11 PERCENT
RANGE ON THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15
TO 20KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON MOSTLY IN
THE TONTO FOOTHILLS AND S.GILA COUNTY. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES GUSTING TO 17 TO 24 KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS WELL AS IN SE CALIFORNIA.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...SAWTELLE
FIRE WEATHER...SAWTELLE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

 910 AM MST FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...PLUS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE TODAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE PROCESSES ONGOING THIS
MORNING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. FIRST OVER
GILA COUNTY...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND H7-H8
FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING WAS LIFTING MARGINAL MOISTURE INTO A REGION
OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. SEVERAL ACCAS BANDS WITH EMBEDDED
DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH THIS
MORNING OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM...HOWEVER LARGELY BE A NON-PLAYER
WITHIN THE LOCAL FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SECONDLY...A SFC-H8 FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS EVIDENT THROUGH FAR WESTERN
ARIZONA WITH MODEST +10C H9 DEWPOINTS BEING PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. CONCURRENT WITH THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION...A POCKET OF 0-
3KM MLCAPE ABOVE 100 J/KG (AND TOTAL MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG)
WAS ANALYZED THROUGH MUCH OF LA PAZ COUNTY. UPSTREAM...A LOBE OF
VORTICITY WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE SAN DIEGO AREA WITH WINDWARD SIDE
SHOWERS BEING WRUNG OUT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...THIS LARGER
SCALE SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...AND MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION
NMM CORES SEEM TO CAPTURE THIS EVOLUTION BEST...AND HAVE HEDGED MOST
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/524 AM MST FRI MAY 6 2016/
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT THE WINDS AND THE BEGINNING OF
A COOLING TREND IS CENTERED JUST OF SANTA BARBARA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE VORT LOBES WITHIN THE SYSTEM. AT
THE SURFACE...ONE OF WHICH IS MOVING ASHORE INTO FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. A SURFACE LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE MOHAVE DESERT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE UPPER LOW/UPPER TROUGH TRACKING
EASTWARD TODAY AND SATURDAY THEN BEGIN EXITING SUNDAY. IN THE
PROCESS...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF VORT LOBES MOVING THROUGH FOR
SOME DYNAMICAL ASCENT AT TIMES PLUS COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME ADDED DYNAMICAL ASCENT TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
EAST WITH TIME THE JET AXIS MOVES FURTHER AWAY.

ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBES IS MOVING ASHORE INTO FAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE IS NOT INITIALIZED WELL BY THE
LATEST MODELS. BUT IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD CLOUD TOPS AND THERE IS EVEN
SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED WITHIN THE ASSOCIATED
CLOUDINESS. THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES EVERYWHERE AND THUS AN UPRAMPING OF POPS TODAY. HI-RES MODELS
ARE A MIXED BAG AS TO THE ONSET OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
TODAY. SOME OF THEM INDICATE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS
MORNING...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THERE IS ALSO SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE THERE AS WELL.

THE MAIN THEME OF THE MODELS IN TERMS OF PRECIP POTENTIAL IS THAT
CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND PEAKS
EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AS A VORT LOBE MOVES
THROUGH. POPS TREND DOWN DOWN SATURDAY BEHIND THE EXITING LOBE BUT
DONT GO AWAY ENTIRELY DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND ANOTHER VORT
LOBE...THOUGH THAT ONE TRACKS MOSTLY SOUTH. YET ANOTHER ONE COMES
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS THE SYSTEM IS
SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. PEAK PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 1
INCH AT THE COAST BUT WITH RAIN SHADOWING WE WILL SEE LESS AND THUS
NOT LOOKING FOR A BIG PRECIP EVENT...BUT CONSIDERING WE ARE GETTING
INTO THE VERY DRIEST TIME OF YEAR...IT WILL BE NOTABLE. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE CAPE IS LOOKING
MODEST...JUST ENOUGH TO UPGRADE MENTION TO CHANCE IN SOME
AREAS...SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

AS FOR TEMPS...CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS TODAY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES. THERE WILL BE LESS COOLING FURTHER WEST BECAUSE OF ALREADY
HAVING COOLED INTO THE 80S YESTERDAY. THUS...HIGHS ON THE LOW DESERTS
WILL BE IN THE 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN WARMING AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
PACIFIC RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN STATES DURING THE NEXT
WORKWEEK FOR A WARMING TREND. EXPECT DESERTS TO FLIRT WITH 100 AGAIN
BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
FLOW WILL VEER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF 10-15 KT CROSS-WINDS IS LIKELY THIS MORNING AT
KPHX. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THEY WILL BE WEAKER THAN THOSE OBSERVED THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 25 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE PHOENIX AREA THIS EVENING...BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLOUD BASES WILL GENERALLY HOVER BETWEEN 5K
AND 8K FT...PERHAPS BECOMING BKN TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
BREEZY SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KIPL/KBLH. A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDS
SUCH AS GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST IS LOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY BY 02Z SATURDAY AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE SLOW-MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THEREAFTER...A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK AGAIN IN
THE LOWER DESERTS. DESPITE THE LOW RHS...FIRE DANGER WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY MOIST
FUELS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...MO/AJ
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 155 PM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INLAND
TODAY. BANDS OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER
CHANCES OVER OUR DISTRICT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...PRIMARILY MORE INLAND
AREAS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:00 PM PDT FRIDAY...MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH OUR CWA. WORTH NOTING THAT THE RUNS OF THE HRRR
EARLIER THIS MORNING SO FAR HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB WITH BRINGING
THE MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA FROM STO`S. AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
LIGHT SO FAR WITH MANY PLACES UNDER 1/4". RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. COULD
ALSO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT, ONE CELL FIRED UP OVER FAR
SOUTHERN SAN BENTIO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AS ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE LOW. MODELS SHOW SIMILAR VALUES AND
FAIRLY CLOSE TIMING FOR TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF UP TO 1/4" FOR MOST URBAN SPOTS. INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK AS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO TODAY, HOWEVER AN
ISOLATED CELL OR TWO FOR PARTS WELL INLAND CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO
THE FOUR CORNER`S REGION. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
REBUILD TO THE WEST COAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO
PUSH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL TO ABOVE LEVELS. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK MOST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO THE MID 80S.

NO REAL SIGNS OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:55 AM PDT FRIDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS. UPPER LOW IN
VICINITY BRINGING GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. WRAP
AROUND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS. SKIES WILL BE
CHAOTIC WITH FRACTURED DECKS AT VARYING FLIGHT LEVELS FROM 800 FT
TO 11000 FT. THUS VFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE... WITH MOSTLY
VFR/MVFR CIGS TO BE EXPECTED. OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS.

VICINITY OF KSFO... INTERMITTENT MVFR/VFR OSCILLATING CIGS THRU
THE DAY WITH VCSH/-SHRA FROM WRAP AROUND SHOWERS. ONSHORE WINDS UP
TO 15KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...INTERMITTENT MVFR/VFR OSCILLATING CIGS
THRU DAY WITH VCSH/-SHRA FROM WRAP AROUND SHOWERS. ONSHORE WINDS
UP TO 12 KT DURING AFTERNOON. WINDS NEAR KSNS GUSTING TO AROUND
20 KT AFTER 14Z SAT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:47 AM PDT FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM
WILL SHIFT FARTHER INLAND TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE SPLIT... WITH
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST AND THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/BLIER
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
153 PM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.Synopsis...
Another day of showers Saturday then a drying trend with only a
slight chance of showers Sunday. Temperatures warming into 90s
next week.

.Short Term Discussion...
Clouds keeping instability down today and not nearly as much
convection going today as yesterday. Biggest challenge is trying
to figure out timing of the next wave of moisture. Both the
GFS/NAM in pretty good agreement that this wave will rotate down
into Sacramento area tonight after midnight. HRRR however
suggesting it will come sooner, either way, should be another
round of rain pushing across tonight and probably into Saturday
morning. After the morning rain, instability not nearly as high
Saturday afternoon, but enough around that there should be a few
showers.

Sunday...overall the energy from this weather system is shifting
away from the area. Have kept a slight chance of showers in the
valley and slightly higher in higher terrain, but overall a drier
and warmer day. This drying and warming trend continues into
Monday. Rasch


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

Warmer and dry pattern ahead for Northern California.
A weak system is projected to clip the area on Tuesday, but this
will bring only light showers to portions of the Sierra and
southern Cascades. Upper ridge moves in late Tuesday and persists
through extended period. High temperatures under ridge will be in the
mid to upper 80s with some locations in the northern portions of
Valley like Redding and Red Bluff reaching low 90s.

Just beyond the extended period, models hint at ridge breaking
down with trough moving in during the weekend. Models disagree
this far in advance with how far south the trough digs and how
quickly it moves through, which isn`t surprising. Either way, it
could mean another chance of precip in the long term.

Owen
&&

.AVIATION...

Upr low ovr SoCal with Ely flow alf ovr fcst area bcmg NEly tngt and
Sat as low movs into Grt Basin. VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24
hrs exc lcl MVFR poss in shwrs or tstms...mnly ovr fthls/mtns.
SFC wnds genly blo 15 kts thru Sat exc gsty nr tstms.



&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 1053 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INLAND
TODAY. BANDS OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER
CHANCES OVER OUR DISTRICT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...PRIMARILY MORE INLAND
AREAS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PDT FRIDAY...SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO OUR REGION SHORTLY. IN FACT HRRR IS FAIRLY BULLISH AND
BRINGS AN AREA OF MOISTURE (WELL DEPICTED BY RADARS) TO MOST OF
THE SF BAY REGION DOWN TO SANTA CRUZ AND SANTA CLARA COUNTY BY
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. DID A MINOR UPDATE
THIS MORNING TO THE FORECAST AND UPPED THE POPS FOR SATURDAY IN
LIGHT OF LATEST GUIDANCE. ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL
FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH UNDER 1/4" IN MOST URBAN SPOTS.
LOCAL RANGES COULD SEE UP TO 2/3".

WILL UPDATE FORECAST TODAY AS NECESSARY BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
RAIN.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST KMUX RADAR DATA
AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS NOW PREVAILING ACROSS
MOST OF OUR DISTRICT...THOUGH WITH SOME SHOWERS HAVING JUST DEVELOPED
OVER THE SOUTHERN SANTA LUCIA MTNS OF MONTEREY COUNTY. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD AND
DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH
ITS CENTER PRESENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL
ISLANDS. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER SITUATION FOR OUR AREA IS AN
UNUSUAL ONE...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING IN A MOIST AND
POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE EAST. THE NEXT BAND OF CLOUDINESS
IS SPREADING RAPIDLY WESTWARD INTO THE SF BAY AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY. THUS FAR HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED
PRECIP HAS LARGELY BEEN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA WITH NEITHER KDAX NOR KMUX RADARS...OR SURFACE
OBS...INDICATING ANY APPRECIABLE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
PRESENTLY MOVING TOWARDS US. AS A RESULT EXPECT THE DAY TO GET OFF
TO A DRY START...AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE.

THEREAFTER THOUGH CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES. MODEL PERFORMANCE IN
GENERAL WITH THIS SYSTEM THUS FAR...IN TERMS OF TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE. AND EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM...WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THIS RESPECT CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT. THE NEW
06Z RUN OF THE GFS SHOWS PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY CONFINED
TO SANTA CLARA AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES...WHILE THE 06Z NAM SPREADS
IT OVER ALMOST ALL OF OUR DISTRICT ASIDE FROM SONOMA COUNTY...THE
LATEST (09Z) HRRR RUN STARTS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE LATE
MORNING OVER THE NORTH BAY WITH IT THEN DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL SF BAY AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST AVAILABLE (00Z) OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF
MODEL FOCUSES IT ON THE FAR SE PORTION OF OUR CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...VERY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN DETAILS IN
GRIDS AND FORECAST.

THAT SAID HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
GENERAL LARGER-SCALE PICTURE AND EVOLUTION. GOOD CONSENSUS THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH FAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO ARIZONA BY SUNDAY MORNING. BY THAT
POINT ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD OF OUR
DISTRICT...BUT UNTIL THEN SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MORE INLAND AREAS...AND
THEN SHOULD DIMINISH AND COME TO AN END AS THE AIR MASS
STABILIZES.

FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WITH GOOD LONGER RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE 850 MB TEMPS AS THIS OCCURS...UP INTO THE 15C
TO 17C RANGE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS...AT
LEAST INLAND AREAS...THEN PROJECTED TO REACH UP INTO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:55 AM PDT FRIDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS. UPPER LOW IN
VICINITY BRINGING GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. WRAP
AROUND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS. SKIES WILL BE
CHAOTIC WITH FRACTURED DECKS AT VARYING FLIGHT LEVELS FROM 800 FT
TO 11000 FT. THUS VFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE... WITH MOSTLY
VFR/MVFR CIGS TO BE EXPECTED. OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS.

VICINITY OF KSFO... INTERMITTENT MVFR/VFR OSCILLATING CIGS THRU
THE DAY WITH VCSH/-SHRA FROM WRAP AROUND SHOWERS. ONSHORE WINDS UP
TO 15KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...INTERMITTENT MVFR/VFR OSCILLATING CIGS
THRU DAY WITH VCSH/-SHRA FROM WRAP AROUND SHOWERS. ONSHORE WINDS
UP TO 12 KT DURING AFTERNOON. WINDS NEAR KSNS GUSTING TO AROUND
20 KT AFTER 14Z SAT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:47 AM PDT FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM
WILL SHIFT FARTHER INLAND TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE SPLIT... WITH
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST AND THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/BLIER
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 902 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INLAND
TODAY. BANDS OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER
CHANCES OVER OUR DISTRICT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...PRIMARILY MORE INLAND
AREAS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PDT FRIDAY...SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO OUR REGION SHORTLY. IN FACT HRRR IS FAIRLY BULLISH AND
BRINGS AN AREA OF MOISTURE (WELL DEPICTED BY RADARS) TO MOST OF
THE SF BAY REGION DOWN TO SANTA CRUZ AND SANTA CLARA COUNTY BY
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. DID A MINOR UPDATE
THIS MORNING TO THE FORECAST AND UPPED THE POPS FOR SATURDAY IN
LIGHT OF LATEST GUIDANCE. ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL
FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH UNDER 1/4" IN MOST URBAN SPOTS.
LOCAL RANGES COULD SEE UP TO 2/3".

WILL UPDATE FORECAST TODAY AS NECESSARY BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
RAIN.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST KMUX RADAR DATA
AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS NOW PREVAILING ACROSS
MOST OF OUR DISTRICT...THOUGH WITH SOME SHOWERS HAVING JUST DEVELOPED
OVER THE SOUTHERN SANTA LUCIA MTNS OF MONTEREY COUNTY. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD AND
DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH
ITS CENTER PRESENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL
ISLANDS. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER SITUATION FOR OUR AREA IS AN
UNUSUAL ONE...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING IN A MOIST AND
POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE EAST. THE NEXT BAND OF CLOUDINESS
IS SPREADING RAPIDLY WESTWARD INTO THE SF BAY AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY. THUS FAR HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED
PRECIP HAS LARGELY BEEN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA WITH NEITHER KDAX NOR KMUX RADARS...OR SURFACE
OBS...INDICATING ANY APPRECIABLE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
PRESENTLY MOVING TOWARDS US. AS A RESULT EXPECT THE DAY TO GET OFF
TO A DRY START...AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE.

THEREAFTER THOUGH CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES. MODEL PERFORMANCE IN
GENERAL WITH THIS SYSTEM THUS FAR...IN TERMS OF TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE. AND EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM...WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THIS RESPECT CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT. THE NEW
06Z RUN OF THE GFS SHOWS PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY CONFINED
TO SANTA CLARA AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES...WHILE THE 06Z NAM SPREADS
IT OVER ALMOST ALL OF OUR DISTRICT ASIDE FROM SONOMA COUNTY...THE
LATEST (09Z) HRRR RUN STARTS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE LATE
MORNING OVER THE NORTH BAY WITH IT THEN DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL SF BAY AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST AVAILABLE (00Z) OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF
MODEL FOCUSES IT ON THE FAR SE PORTION OF OUR CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...VERY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN DETAILS IN
GRIDS AND FORECAST.

THAT SAID HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
GENERAL LARGER-SCALE PICTURE AND EVOLUTION. GOOD CONSENSUS THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH FAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO ARIZONA BY SUNDAY MORNING. BY THAT
POINT ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD OF OUR
DISTRICT...BUT UNTIL THEN SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MORE INLAND AREAS...AND
THEN SHOULD DIMINISH AND COME TO AN END AS THE AIR MASS
STABILIZES.

FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WITH GOOD LONGER RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE 850 MB TEMPS AS THIS OCCURS...UP INTO THE 15C
TO 17C RANGE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS...AT
LEAST INLAND AREAS...THEN PROJECTED TO REACH UP INTO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:49 AM PDT FRIDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. CHALLENGING
FORECAST DETAILS GIVEN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CIGS
FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. THEN RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY OVER THE
SIERRA SHOULD ROTATE OVER BAY AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS. WINDS TO REMAIN
MAINLY WNW AND LIGHT. PRECIP ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY ROTATE OVER
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
LIKELY TO LEAVE LOW CIGS IN PLACE AGAIN TONIGHT...THEN A REPEAT
PERFORMANCE SATURDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
ROTATING OFF THE SIERRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT BAY AREA TERMINALS.
THIS WAS REFLECTED IN 30 HOUR TAFS FOR KSFO/KOAK IN SHOWING -RA
RETURNING SATURDAY MORNING AROUND 14Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LOW CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS IN TERMS OF
FLUCTUATING CLOUD HEIGHTS. DO EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
FROM THE NW. -RA BAND CURRENTLY OVER THE SIERRA TO REACH KSFO
AROUND 16-17Z THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS. -RA
TO END BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH VCSH TURNING TO PERSISTENT MVFR
CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. EXPECT FLUCTUATING CLOUD
HEIGHTS THIS MORNING. COULD BE PERIOD OF VISUALS THROUGH 16-17Z
BUT THEN AS PRECIP BAND ARRIVES BY MID TO LATE MORNING EXPECT THAT
WINDOW TO CLOSE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PERIODS OF -RA
AND MVFR CIGS.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...LOW CIGS THIS MORNING FROM 400 FEET AT
KMRY TO 1600 FEET AT KSNS. VCSH WITH CHANGING CLOUD DECKS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING. -RA TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIP SHIELD
ROTATES FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 AM PDT FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM
WILL SHIFT FARTHER INLAND TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE SPLIT... WITH
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST AND THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/BLIER
AVIATION: R_WALBRUN
MARINE: MWW


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 449 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INLAND
TODAY. BANDS OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER
CHANCES OVER OUR DISTRICT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY MORE
INLAND AREAS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:20 AM PDT FRIDAY...LATEST KMUX RADAR DATA
AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS NOW PREVAILING ACROSS
MOST OF OUR DISTRICT...THOUGH WITH SOME SHOWERS HAVING JUST DEVELOPED
OVER THE SOUTHERN SANTA LUCIA MTNS OF MONTEREY COUNTY. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD AND
DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH
ITS CENTER PRESENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL
ISLANDS. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER SITUATION FOR OUR AREA IS AN
UNUSUAL ONE...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING IN A MOIST AND
POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE EAST. THE NEXT BAND OF CLOUDINESS
IS SPREADING RAPIDLY WESTWARD INTO THE SF BAY AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY. THUS FAR HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED
PRECIP HAS LARGELY BEEN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA WITH NEITHER KDAX NOR KMUX RADARS...OR SURFACE
OBS...INDICATING ANY APPRECIABLE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
PRESENTLY MOVING TOWARDS US. AS A RESULT EXPECT THE DAY TO GET OFF
TO A DRY START...AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE.

THEREAFTER THOUGH CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES. MODEL PERFORMANCE IN
GENERAL WITH THIS SYSTEM THUS FAR...IN TERMS OF TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE. AND EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM...WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THIS RESPECT CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT. THE NEW
06Z RUN OF THE GFS SHOWS PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY CONFINED
TO SANTA CLARA AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES...WHILE THE 06Z NAM SPREADS
IT OVER ALMOST ALL OF OUR DISTRICT ASIDE FROM SONOMA COUNTY...THE
LATEST (09Z) HRRR RUN STARTS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE LATE
MORNING OVER THE NORTH BAY WITH IT THEN DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL SF BAY AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST AVAILABLE (00Z) OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF
MODEL FOCUSES IT ON THE FAR SE PORTION OF OUR CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...VERY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN DETAILS IN
GRIDS AND FORECAST.

THAT SAID HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
GENERAL LARGER-SCALE PICTURE AND EVOLUTION. GOOD CONSENSUS THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH FAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO ARIZONA BY SUNDAY MORNING. BY THAT
POINT ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD OF OUR
DISTRICT...BUT UNTIL THEN SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MORE INLAND AREAS...AND
THEN SHOULD DIMINISH AND COME TO AN END AS THE AIR MASS
STABILIZES.

FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WITH GOOD LONGER RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE 850 MB TEMPS AS THIS OCCURS...UP INTO THE 15C
TO 17C RANGE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS...AT
LEAST INLAND AREAS...THEN PROJECTED TO REACH UP INTO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:49 AM PDT FRIDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. CHALLENGING
FORECAST DETAILS GIVEN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CIGS
FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. THEN RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY OVER THE
SIERRA SHOULD ROTATE OVER BAY AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS. WINDS TO REMAIN
MAINLY WNW AND LIGHT. PRECIP ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY ROTATE OVER
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
LIKELY TO LEAVE LOW CIGS IN PLACE AGAIN TONIGHT...THEN A REPEAT
PERFORMANCE SATURDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
ROTATING OFF THE SIERRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT BAY AREA TERMINALS.
THIS WAS REFLECTED IN 30 HOUR TAFS FOR KSFO/KOAK IN SHOWING -RA
RETURNING SATURDAY MORNING AROUND 14Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LOW CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS IN TERMS OF
FLUCTUATING CLOUD HEIGHTS. DO EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
FROM THE NW. -RA BAND CURRENTLY OVER THE SIERRA TO REACH KSFO
AROUND 16-17Z THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS. -RA
TO END BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH VCSH TURNING TO PERSISTENT MVFR
CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. EXPECT FLUCTUATING CLOUD
HEIGHTS THIS MORNING. COULD BE PERIOD OF VISUALS THROUGH 16-17Z
BUT THEN AS PRECIP BAND ARRIVES BY MID TO LATE MORNING EXPECT THAT
WINDOW TO CLOSE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PERIODS OF -RA
AND MVFR CIGS.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...LOW CIGS THIS MORNING FROM 400 FEET AT
KMRY TO 1600 FEET AT KSNS. VCSH WITH CHANGING CLOUD DECKS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING. -RA TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIP SHIELD
ROTATES FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:49 AM PDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS
THE REGION...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHERE STRONGER
NW WINDS PERSIST AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. THE LOW
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. SEAS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PERIODS AROUND 10 SECONDS
THROUGH SATURDAY. A LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL ENTER THE WATERS BY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A THERMAL
TROUGH KEEPING THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
WHILE GENERALLY LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ARE FORECAST NEAR SHORE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: R_WALBRUN
MARINE: R_WALBRUN


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 437 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INLAND
TODAY. BANDS OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER
CHANCES OVER OUR DISTRICT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY MORE
INLAND AREAS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:20 AM PDT FRIDAY...LATEST KMUX RADAR DATA
AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS NOW PREVAILING ACROSS
MOST OF OUR DISTRICT...THOUGH WITH SOME SHOWERS HAVING JUST DEVELOPED
OVER THE SOUTHERN SANTA LUCIA MTNS OF MONTEREY COUNTY. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSES SHOW A BROAD AND
DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH
ITS CENTER PRESENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL
ISLANDS. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER SITUATION FOR OUR AREA IS AN
UNUSUAL ONE...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING IN A MOIST AND
POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE EAST. THE NEXT BAND OF CLOUDINESS
IS SPREADING RAPIDLY WESTWARD INTO THE SF BAY AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY. THUS FAR HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED
PRECIP HAS LARGELY BEEN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA WITH NEITHER KDAX NOR KMUX RADARS...OR SURFACE
OBS...INDICATING ANY APPRECIABLE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
PRESENTLY MOVING TOWARDS US. AS A RESULT EXPECT THE DAY TO GET OFF
TO A DRY START...AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE.

THEREAFTER THOUGH CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES. MODEL PERFORMANCE IN
GENERAL WITH THIS SYSTEM THUS FAR...IN TERMS OF TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE. AND EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM...WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THIS RESPECT CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT. THE NEW
06Z RUN OF THE GFS SHOWS PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY CONFINED
TO SANTA CLARA AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES...WHILE THE 06Z NAM SPREADS
IT OVER ALMOST ALL OF OUR DISTRICT ASIDE FROM SONOMA COUNTY...THE
LATEST (09Z) HRRR RUN STARTS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE LATE
MORNING OVER THE NORTH BAY WITH IT THEN DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL SF BAY AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST AVAILABLE (00Z) OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF
MODEL FOCUSES IT ON THE FAR SE PORTION OF OUR CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...VERY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN DETAILS IN
GRIDS AND FORECAST.

THAT SAID HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
GENERAL LARGER-SCALE PICTURE AND EVOLUTION. GOOD CONSENSUS THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH FAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO ARIZONA BY SUNDAY MORNING. BY THAT
POINT ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD OF OUR
DISTRICT...BUT UNTIL THEN SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MORE INLAND AREAS...AND
THEN SHOULD DIMINISH AND COME TO AN END AS THE AIR MASS
STABILIZES.

FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WITH GOOD LONGER RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE 850 MB TEMPS AS THIS OCCURS...UP INTO THE 15C
TO 17C RANGE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS...AT
LEAST INLAND AREAS...THEN PROJECTED TO REACH UP INTO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
THE CENTRAL COAST MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO THE HILLS THIS EVENING WHILE PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE COAST. MVFR EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE MRY
BAY AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE SFO BAY AREA LATER TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL
BE COMING FROM THE NORTHEAST. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY
FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS AFTER 12Z CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER 16Z. MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS AFTER 08Z. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS
THE REGION...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHERE STRONGER
NW WINDS PERSIST AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. THE LOW
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. SEAS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PERIODS AROUND 10 SECONDS
THROUGH SATURDAY. A LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL ENTER THE WATERS BY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A THERMAL
TROUGH KEEPING THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
WHILE GENERALLY LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ARE FORECAST NEAR SHORE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: R_WALBRUN


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS EUREKA CA

 427 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEN
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER BACK TO THE REGION
WITH A WARMING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ORIGINATE OVER INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND
TRAVEL WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY POSSIBLY IMPACTING COASTAL AREAS.
THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WEAKENING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. THE HRRR INDICATES THERE WILL
BE AN INITIAL BAND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING ACROSS MENDOCINO
COUNTY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION SPINNING UP WITH THE HEAT OF THE
DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF TRINITY AND INTERIOR MENDOCINO
COUNTIES. EXPECT STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY
APPROACH THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW
AND BRING AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A WARMING TREND TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WARMING/DRYING TREND
UNFOLDING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SURPASS
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PARTICULARLY ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD AND BRINGS WARMER, DRY AIR
TO COASTAL REGIONS. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE FLOW PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT STRATUS WILL MAKE A RETURN TO PARTS THE COAST.
LITTLE CHANGES WERE OTHERWISE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. KML

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CEILINGS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST. ALTHO KCEC
IS PRESENTLY SOCKED IN WITH 1SM VISIBILITY IN FOG... HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE PROGGING INCREASING OFFSHORE...AND THUS DOWNSLOPE...FLOW
AT KCEC. THIS SHOULD BE ENUF TO ERODE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LATER THIS
MORNING...WHILE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR LONGER
AT KACV. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP AT KUKI. MID CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RADIATIVE COOLING...AND LIMITED SURROUNDING OBS DON`T
INDICATE PRESENCE OF LOW CLOUDS. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...BUT WILL
PROBABLY REMOVE LOW CEILING WITH NEXT TAF PACKAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY AT KCEC DURING THE AFTERNOON. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND INLAND LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE. HAVE EXTENDED ALL HEADLINES ANOTHER 6
HOURS OR SO. THE N OFFSHORE GALE WARNING CONTINUES THRU LATE
TONIGHT...THE S OFFSHORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
WARNING CONTINUE THRU SAT MORNING...AND THE N NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES THRU SAT AFTERNOON. GRADIENT WINDS WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE N OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL MORE UNIFORMLY DIMINISH BY
NEXT TUE. SHORT PERIOD...STEEP WAVES WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

 402 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A slow-moving low pressure system will bring a chance of showers
and a slight chance of thunderstorms to the region through the
weekend. High pressure will rebuild next week bringing mostly
clear skies with a warming trend to the area Monday through the
middle of next week. Night through morning low clouds and patchy
fog are likely for some coastal areas and coastal valley
locations through much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SUN)

An unseasonably cold upper low was centered just west of Point
Conception this morning. This upper low is expected to move
slightly to the southeast and remain over Southern California
through Saturday before moving east. There will continue be some
upper level disturbances rotating around and within the upper low
over the forecast area today. 500 mb Temps will be quite cold for
this time of year at around -22 degrees C. This will be the main
factor to cause the atmosphere to become quite unstable with high
lapse rates...especially over the mountains this afternoon and
evening. Confidence is high that there will be scattered
thunderstorms developing over the mountains this afternoon and
evening. Latest model soundings near Lockwood Valley in the
Ventura Mtns indicated high CAPE values over 1,100 j/kg, Lifted
Index around -6 and plenty of low- mid level moisture to work
with. Unlike yesterday, the upper flow will be much weaker due to
the proximity of the upper low. Therefore a FLASH FLOOD WATCH has
been issued for the Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara County
Mountains, as well as the Antelope Valley and Cuyama Valley valid
from noon today through 8 pm this evening. The Precipitable Waters
are around .85 inches which is also high for this time of year.
People in the flash flood watch areas should keep an eye on the
weather today.

Once again, it will be difficult to pin-point when and where coast
and valley showers will occur today. There will be a slight chance
for thunderstorms across the SBA,VTU,LA Valleys and coastal areas
as thunderstorms will likely drift to the SE off the mountains.
There will be enough instability continuing into this evening to
continue the slight chance of thunderstorms. The upper low will
continue to swing some moisture over the forecast through
Saturday. Showers will be less widespread and not as
convective...however there will continue to be slight instability
over the mountains on Saturday so a few isolated thunderstorms
can`t be ruled out. Winds will remain fairly week out of the
north, so there could be a few late afternoon showers drifting
into the valleys and coastal areas of LA,VTA and SBA counties.

By Sunday...the upper low will be well into the Central Plains,
but there will continue to be some lingering moisture across the
region, so expect at the least partly cloudy skies. Went ahead and
pulled out POPS for Sunday as latest models showed no rain and a
much more stable atmosphere. There will likely be a flat cumulus
clouds across the mountains and foothills...but cloud cover should
not be as widespread across coast and valleys.

As far as high temps go...due to the clouds and unsettled weather
conditions, temps will be much cooler than normal across the area
today thru Sun, with highs ranging from 7 to 16 deg below normal
today. High temps will continue to be below normal for this time
of year, but trend towards normal by next Tuesday. Hi temps for
the cst and vlys will be generally in the 60s today, then warm
slightly into the mid 60s to low 70s for Sat, and upper 60s to
lower 70s for Sun.

.LONG TERM...(MON-THU)

EC/GFS continue to be in good agreement Mon thru Thu.
Upper level ridging will build off the California coast Monday
and become amplified by Tue. This ridge will then shift over
California Wednesday and Thursday. Expect dry and warmer
conditions through the extended period. Some night and morning
marine layer low clouds and fog should affect some coastal and
coastal valley areas at times, otherwise clear to partly cloudy
skies can be expected across the region for Mon thru Thu. High
temps will be around normal by next Tue and Wed, and then warmer
than normal for many areas by Thursday, with the warmest vlys
reaching the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...06/0010Z.

At 0005z at KLAX... there was no marine inversion.

Overall... Low to moderate confidence in the 00z tafs. The
reduced confidence is primarily due to the hit and miss nature of
the showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Conditions near any
thunderstorms will include variable and gusty winds... brief heavy
rain... and possible hail. Highest probability of showers and
tstms for KLAX, KLGB, KBUR, and KVNY is later this evening through
Friday morning.

KLAX and KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in the 00z taf. The
reduced confidence is primarily due to the hit and miss nature of
the showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Highest probability
of showers and thunderstorms for KLAX and KBUR will be 06z-18z,
where there is a 60 percent chance of showers and a 20 percent
chance of thunderstorms.


&&

.MARINE...06/300 AM.

There is a chance of showers across the coastal waters through
Saturday night and a slight chance of thunderstorms today, mainly
south and east of the Channel Islands. Any storms that develop
will be capable of brief heavy downpours, gusty winds, small hail,
and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Winds and seas should
remain below advisory criteria through Sunday, except in the
vicinity of any thunderstorms that develop.

The storm system moves out the of region by late Sunday and no
significant wind or sea conditions are expected through the early
half of next week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Flash Flood Watch in effect from noon PDT today through this
      evening For zones 38-52>54-59. (See LAXFFALOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CK
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...CK

weather.gov/losangeles




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
402 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.Synopsis...
Unsettled weather will continue into the weekend. Drier and
warmer weather is then expected next week.

.Short Term Discussion

Closed low continues to impact our weather today as the center of
the low sits over SoCal today. Models continue to show a vort max
rotating around this low into our region this morning. Current
radar shows evidence of this as showers from Nevada are now
cyclonically moving across the Sierra into our CWA. The HRRR shows
a decent slug of moisture stretching from Yosemite up towards
Lassen Park and moving westward this morning across interior
NorCal between now through late morning with scattered showers
continuing for the rest of the day. Models indicating that the
atmosphere won`t be as unstable as yesterday, but there is still a
slight chance of thunderstorms. Lightning has already been
observed this morning over in Nevada. Residents should still be
prepared for periods of downpours, gusty winds, lightning, and
small hail today even though it may not be as widespread as
yesterday.

On Saturday, the low tracks farther east in the Great Basin, but
wrap around moisture will continue to stream into our CWA
continuing the threat of showers and possible thunderstorms into
Sunday. By Sunday, though, coverage will diminish with best
chances of shower activity persisting over the western Sierra
slopes.

Monday will start a drier, warmer trend for the work week as high
pressure ridging builds over the Eastern Pacific Ocean and impacts
the West Coast. Valley highs will return to the low 80s with
higher terrain in the 60s and 70s. JBB


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

Forecast models are advertising a quick moving upper level
disturbance that should slide out of the Pacific Northwest that
may clip portions of northern California on Tuesday. This
disturbance may bring some isolated sprinkles in the mountains,
but no significant precipitation is expected Tuesday or Tuesday
night.

The main story in the long term forecast period is a return to quiet
weather with a pattern of warm and dry weather pushing into
California.  An upper level ridge of high pressure will move eastward
from the Pacific Tuesday night through Wednesday that will bring
above normal high temperatures to the valley through the end of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

A stagnant low pressure system positioned over California will
bring overcast conditions, light rain showers, and chances for
thunderstorms today across the valley. As a result, there will be
periods of MVFR ceilings for the terminals north and south of
Sacramento.

Antecedent moisture from rainfall yesterday could cause some
reduced visibilities and ceilings between MVFR and IFR for
periods this morning for terminals in Sacramento county.

Ceilings and visibilities should improve across the valley Friday
evening with a return to VFR conditions for the terminals.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA

 330 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LOW SLOWING MOVING ONSHORE
TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE REGIONAL DOPPLER RADARS SHOW A
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...THE HRRR MESO-SCALE MODEL
SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS
THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY. WITH THE SLOW ADVANCEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE DISTRICT WILL REMAIN IN
A NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTED
FROM THE NORTH. CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING...FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CONTINUATION OF SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE SURGES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL BE OBSERVED ON SATURDAY AS THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION DIMINISHES. WHILE SHOWERS WILL STILL BE OBSERVED
DURING THE DAY...THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SMALL. IN
ADDITION...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
AS THE DISTRICT WILL THEN BE IN AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN.
TYPICALLY...THE FLOW PATTERN IS DRY WITH PRECIP CONFINED TO THE
HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SIERRA NEVADA. SUNDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION
OF THE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AS WE TRANSITION TO A DRY
REGIME. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THIS THINKING AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE WEST COAST.

WHILE THE TRANSITION TO A RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE SLOW AS ANOTHER
WEATHER DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE PAC-NORTHWEST/INTER-MTN
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. YET...THE RIDGE PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD OF
THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S
ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ONCE THE RIDGE PATTERN PUSHES INTO
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...IT MAY REMAIN OVER THE
WEST COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENTLY...WHILE MODELS ARE SHOWING
LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER RANGE PERIODS...THEY DO INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER CLOSED CUT-OFF LOW EXISTING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTRODUCTION OF PRECIP TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS VERY LOW. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE CUT-OFF LOW
...WILL OPT FOR THE RIDGE SOLUTION IN THE LONG TERM AND WAIT FOR
BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON HOW TO DEAL WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THRU 12Z SATURDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...MOLINA

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 1043 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL SHIFT INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND RESULT
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:10 PM PDT THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THIS CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS TRIGGERED BY AN
UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MONTEREY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO OCCUR FROM TODAY`S
SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS AT PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK WHERE 0.33" WAS
RECORDED. IN OTHER LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN FELL TODAY...AMOUNTS WERE
MOSTLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

A LINE OF INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED JUST TO THE
EAST OF SANTA CLARA AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BUT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EITHER WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OR
DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE SANTA CLARA
AND HOLLISTER VALLEYS THIS EVENING. NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET ALL
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AND EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.

THE CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE GRADUALLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN TURN TO THE EAST AND INLAND OVER
SOUTHERN CA ON FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ALL SHOW AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF PRECIP WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...TRACKING FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...PRECISELY WHERE THAT PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED IS DIFFICULT
TO SAY GIVEN DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z NAM FORECASTS
THIS AREA OF PRECIP TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL SF BAY AREA FROM
MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z GFS AND LATEST HRRR MODEL
BOTH INDICATE THIS PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN ALAMEDA
AND SANTA CLARA COUNTIES AND SOUTH INTO SAN BENITO COUNTY. GIVEN
MODEL DIFFERENCES...BELIEVE IT`S BEST NOT TO TRY TO PINPOINT
AREAS OF HIGHEST PRECIP POTENTIAL AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO
DISTRIBUTE CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA RATHER UNIFORMLY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE ROTATED OUT OF
OUR AREA PRIOR TO THE BEST SURFACE HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY. THE MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY AND THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HAVE
FADED CONSIDERABLY BY THEN.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL
ALSO MEAN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LONGER
RANGE MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW
IMPACTING OUR AREA BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND (MAY 14 AND 15).

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
THE CENTRAL COAST MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO THE HILLS THIS EVENING WHILE PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE COAST. MVFR EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE MRY
BAY AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE SFO BAY AREA LATER TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL
BE COMING FROM THE NORTHEAST. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY
FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS AFTER 12Z CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER 16Z. MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS AFTER 08Z. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER NEVADA WILL MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE OUTER WATERS
NORTH OF PT REYES AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: DRP


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 912 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL SHIFT INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND RESULT
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:10 PM PDT THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THIS CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS TRIGGERED BY AN
UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MONTEREY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO OCCUR FROM TODAY`S
SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS AT PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK WHERE 0.33" WAS
RECORDED. IN OTHER LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN FELL TODAY...AMOUNTS WERE
MOSTLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

A LINE OF INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED JUST TO THE
EAST OF SANTA CLARA AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BUT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EITHER WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OR
DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE SANTA CLARA
AND HOLLISTER VALLEYS THIS EVENING. NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET ALL
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AND EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.

THE CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE GRADUALLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN TURN TO THE EAST AND INLAND OVER
SOUTHERN CA ON FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ALL SHOW AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF PRECIP WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...TRACKING FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...PRECISELY WHERE THAT PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED IS DIFFICULT
TO SAY GIVEN DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z NAM FORECASTS
THIS AREA OF PRECIP TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL SF BAY AREA FROM
MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z GFS AND LATEST HRRR MODEL
BOTH INDICATE THIS PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN ALAMEDA
AND SANTA CLARA COUNTIES AND SOUTH INTO SAN BENITO COUNTY. GIVEN
MODEL DIFFERENCES...BELIEVE IT`S BEST NOT TO TRY TO PINPOINT
AREAS OF HIGHEST PRECIP POTENTIAL AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO
DISTRIBUTE CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA RATHER UNIFORMLY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE ROTATED OUT OF
OUR AREA PRIOR TO THE BEST SURFACE HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY. THE MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY AND THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HAVE
FADED CONSIDERABLY BY THEN.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL
ALSO MEAN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LONGER
RANGE MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW
IMPACTING OUR AREA BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND (MAY 14 AND 15).

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
THE CENTRAL COAST AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ROTATING THROUGH
THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CIGS HAVE REMAINED AT OR ABOVE 3000
FEET BUT MAY LOWER INTO MVFR RANGE TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE
AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THROUGH 04Z. BECOMING
PREDOMINATELY MVFR AFTER 04Z AS COOLING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
TAKES PLACE. RADAR INDICATES NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
TONIGHT AND FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
10-15 KT.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR WITH CIGS REMAINING ABOVE 3000 FEET.
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR RANGE AFTER 06Z. VCSH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
REGION WILL BRING MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE OUTER WATERS
NORTH OF PT REYES AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ELSEWHERE INTO TOMORROW.
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FROM SQUARED SEAS WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: DRP


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

 1053 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
OER THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS BASED ON THE
FORECASTS OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP MODEL. MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...BUT A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE I-25 URBAN
CORRIDOR. GUSTY WINDS ARE GOING TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MOUNTAIN AREAS COULD
PICK UP A LITTLE RAIN AND SMALL HAIL TOO. THE PRIMARY BAND OF
SHOWERS IS MOVING NORTHWARD OVER PARK COUNTY AT THE PRESENT TIME.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AFTER PASSAGE OF THE FIRST BAND OF
SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE TRAILING THE
SHORT WAVE THAT IS DRIVING THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR A
FEW WEAK SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS IS GOING TO BE QUITE LIMITED EXCEPT NEAR THE
WYOMING BORDER LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB NICELY INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

THE OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD BACK THE MENTION OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MORNING
MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SOMEWHERE OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO SATURDAY MORNING...PROBABLY ACROSS
MORGAN...WELD AND LARIMER COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE GREELEY
AREA SHOW MIDDAY CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. FAVORABLE
WIND SHEAR PROFILES ALSO LOOK LIKE THEY ARE GOING TO BE IN PLACE
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE DEEPENING TROUGH/CLOSED LOW TRACKING SLOWLY E-SEWRD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIF IS BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS DOMINANCE ON FLOW AT ALL
LEVELS AND WX AS FAR EAST AS THE SRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES. DEEP S-SWLY
FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIRECT MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE AREA AND LATER TODAY A SPOKE OF MID-
LEVEL ENERGY AND SHEAR WHICH THE RAP AND OTHER MODELS INDICATE
PASSING OVER NRN NEW MEXICO AT THIS TIME. EVEN WITH VARYING AMOUNTS
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING STRONG DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD
MANAGE TO GENERATE 8-9C/KM BNDRY LAYER LAPSE RATES AND SFC BASED 600-
1200 J/KG CAPES ON THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY. WHILE THE WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER APPEAR LACKING OF MOISTURE...MODELS INDICATE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH INCREASING SELY MID-
LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SWINGING UP FROM
SERN COLORADO. WHILE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF ON THE
PLAINS TODAY. INVERTED-V MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAVORABLE SUB-
CLOUD ENVIRONMENT FOR MICROBURST FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON EVEN AS
MEAN LAYER PW VALUES CREEP UPWARD PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF THE U/A
DISTURBANCE TIMED TO OCCUR AROUND 00Z IN THE DENVER AREA. AFTER
00Z/SAT...THE MICROBURST THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH INFLUX OF DRIER MIX-LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.
THIS DRYING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EVEN NEAR THE GROUND OVERNIGHT AS
MODELS SHOW A WELL PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ROTATING UP FROM NEW MEXICO.

FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY...ODDS LOOK BETTER FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP
TODAY...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE THIS MORNING. GREATER MOISTURE...
BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT..INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHICS SHOULD
PROVE ADEQUATE FOR SHOWER AND T-STORM FORMATION. SHOWERS AND
T-STORM MOTIONS WILL PRIMARILY SOUTH-TO-NORTH TODAY. SO THERE`S LITTLE
CHANCE THAT THE PLAINS WILL SEE MUCH IF ANY OF THIS HIGH COUNTRY
CONVECTION. GUSTY WINDS AND SHORT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING FROM THE
FRONT RANGE WESTWARD. I PUT THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY AT 30-50 PCT...WITH AS FEW POCKETS OF 60 PCT OVER
THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGES ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-70 LATE. LIKE THE
PLAINS...THE CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE HIGH COUNTRY SHOULD STEADILY
DECREASE WITH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AGAIN BUT NOT QUITE RECORD
TERRITORY. RECORD HIGH AT DENVER IS 86. SHOULD SEE LOW 80S IN THE
METRO AREA AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGH COUNTRY WILL
ALSO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
60S. TONIGHT...TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH MID 40S/
LOWER 50S ON THE PLAINS AND MOSTLY 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY. A
STRONG WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME THE NEW CENTER OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SOMEWHERE OVER WYOMING OR NORTHEAST COLORADO.
FOR SATURDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH
A BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF IT WILL
PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL BE UP TO
2000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW TORNADOS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET
UP. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE LITTLE MORE NORTH AND HAS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION NORTH OF A LINE FROM FORT COLLING TO AKRON. STILL
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THIS BOUNDARY ENDS UP FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING.

ON SUNDAY...THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE THE GFS SHOWS IT OVER WYOMING. NO STRONG
FEELING WHICH ONE IS RIGHT. IT WILL BE COOL AND IF THE LOW FORMS
OVER COLORADO...EXPECT MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS
EAST OF COLORADO. STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO TRIGGER SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH INTO WYOMING TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS WEDNESDAY...BUT DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE AT DENVER AREA AIRPORTS. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH MICROBURST POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THE HIGH BASED
SHOWERS. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...GIVEN THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
TODAY. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER BY 7 PM TO 8 PM.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THEY
COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BRING SOME HEAVY RAINS AND CEILINGS
DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...DANKERS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

 441 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE DEEPENING TROUGH/CLOSED LOW TRACKING SLOWLY E-SEWRD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIF IS BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS DOMINANCE ON FLOW AT ALL
LEVELS AND WX AS FAR EAST AS THE SRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES. DEEP S-SWLY
FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIRECT MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE AREA AND LATER TODAY A SPOKE OF MID-
LEVEL ENERGY AND SHEAR WHICH THE RAP AND OTHER MODELS INDICATE
PASSING OVER NRN NEW MEXICO AT THIS TIME. EVEN WITH VARYING AMOUNTS
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING STRONG DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD
MANAGE TO GENERATE 8-9C/KM BNDRY LAYER LAPSE RATES AND SFC BASED 600-
1200 J/KG CAPES ON THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY. WHILE THE WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER APPEAR LACKING OF MOISTURE...MODELS INDICATE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH INCREASING SELY MID-
LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SWINGING UP FROM
SERN COLORADO. WHILE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF ON THE
PLAINS TODAY. INVERTED-V MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAVORABLE SUB-
CLOUD ENVIRONMENT FOR MICROBURST FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON EVEN AS
MEAN LAYER PW VALUES CREEP UPWARD PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF THE U/A
DISTURBANCE TIMED TO OCCUR AROUND 00Z IN THE DENVER AREA. AFTER
00Z/SAT...THE MICROBURST THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH INFLUX OF DRIER MIX-LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.
THIS DRYING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EVEN NEAR THE GROUND OVERNIGHT AS
MODELS SHOW A WELL PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ROTATING UP FROM NEW MEXICO.

FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY...ODDS LOOK BETTER FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP
TODAY...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE THIS MORNING. GREATER MOISTURE...
BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT..INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHICS SHOULD
PROVE ADEQUATE FOR SHOWER AND T-STORM FORMATION. SHOWERS AND
T-STORM MOTIONS WILL PRIMARILY SOUTH-TO-NORTH TODAY. SO THERE`S LITTLE
CHANCE THAT THE PLAINS WILL SEE MUCH IF ANY OF THIS HIGH COUNTRY
CONVECTION. GUSTY WINDS AND SHORT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING FROM THE
FRONT RANGE WESTWARD. I PUT THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY AT 30-50 PCT...WITH AS FEW POCKETS OF 60 PCT OVER
THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGES ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-70 LATE. LIKE THE
PLAINS...THE CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE HIGH COUNTRY SHOULD STEADILY
DECREASE WITH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AGAIN BUT NOT QUITE RECORD
TERRITORY. RECORD HIGH AT DENVER IS 86. SHOULD SEE LOW 80S IN THE
METRO AREA AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGH COUNTRY WILL
ALSO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
60S. TONIGHT...TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH MID 40S/
LOWER 50S ON THE PLAINS AND MOSTLY 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY. A
STRONG WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME THE NEW CENTER OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SOMEWHERE OVER WYOMING OR NORTHEAST COLORADO.
FOR SATURDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH
A BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF IT WILL
PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL BE UP TO
2000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW TORNADOS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET
UP. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE LITTLE MORE NORTH AND HAS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION NORTH OF A LINE FROM FORT COLLING TO AKRON. STILL
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THIS BOUNDARY ENDS UP FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING.

ON SUNDAY...THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE THE GFS SHOWS IT OVER WYOMING. NO STRONG
FEELING WHICH ONE IS RIGHT. IT WILL BE COOL AND IF THE LOW FORMS
OVER COLORADO...EXPECT MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS
EAST OF COLORADO. STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO TRIGGER SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH INTO WYOMING TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS WEDNESDAY...BUT DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ON TAP NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE DENVER AREA. ONLY
CONCERN WILL BE THE HIGH BASED MOSTLY DRY T-STORMS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE METRO AREA BETWEEN
2 PM MDT-7PM MDT TODAY. ASIDE FROM A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE...
THESE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CELLS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
MICROBURST WINDS TO 40KTS. THREAT OF THESE WINDS SHOULD END ERLY
THIS EVENING WITH DRIER AIR FEEDING UP FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS TODAY
GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY AT 7-15KTS..WITH STRONGER GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS UNDER AND NEAR PASSING SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...WINDS IN
THE DENVER AREA TO BECOME A BIT STRONGER FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT
10-20KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AT KAPA AND
KDEN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BAKER




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

 436 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

LARGE CLOSED LOW MOVING ONSHORE THE WESTERN US TODAY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TODAY...STRONG LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL BE DRIVING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. ALREADY THIS MORNING THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN INCREASING
FAIRLY DRAMATICALLY FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO UTAH. THIS AREA OF
ENHANCING PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO FOR
MUCH OF TODAY. SOME STORMS MAY NEAR OR POTENTIALLY EXCEED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CRITERIA TODAY...WITH WIND BEING THE LARGEST THREAT.
WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 58 MPH IN THE STRONGEST STORMS AND HAIL UP
TO ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE...THOUGH LESS LIKELY THAN REACHING THE
STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE RAP FORECAST MODEL INDICATES DAYTIME
HEATING WILL OVERCOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS NE UTAH AROUND
NOON AND ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO SHORTLY THEREAFTER. FORECAST CAPE
VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...INDICATING A PEAK OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND 4 TO 8PM ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO.
THERE WILL BE A LOT OF VIRGA AROUND TODAY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP
CONDITIONS BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH OR WITHOUT RAIN NEARBY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE DETAILS OF THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM CONTINUE TO EVOLVE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF ROBUST CIRCULATIONS
THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SUN. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...LOOK FOR ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EACH
CIRCULATION PASSES. POPS GENERALLY SHOW A BROAD-BRUSHED FORECAST
WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AFTERNOONS/EARLY EVENINGS WILL SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE DIURNAL ASSIST. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN HIGH AS THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE MILD. ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K-11K FEET. BUT CONVECTION WILL
CERTAINLY DRIVE SNOW...GRAUPEL OR SNOW PELLETS LOWER AT TIMES.

DID BUMP UP POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DURING TIME PERIODS WHERE
I WAS MORE CONFIDENT IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING...WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AVAILABLE MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASES LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THE CLOSED LOW WRAPS STRONG
ENERGY COUNTERCLOCKWISE INTO THE WESTERN SLOPE OF COLORADO.
EXACT SET-UP LOCATION OF THIS WRAP-AROUND WILL HAVE TO BE
DIAGNOSED IN LATER FORECASTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS THERE FOR AN
UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WITH LESS CONFIDENCE...MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SEPARATE
DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH THE NORTH DURING THE TUE- WED TIME FRAME AS
A TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE IMPACTS FROM THIS NEXT SYSTEM LOOK PRETTY LOW AT THIS
TIME.

A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE TREND WILL THEN
REVERSE FOR A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE MORNING IS ALREADY STARTING OFF EXCITING WITH STORMS HAVING
INITIATED BEFORE 10Z. INITIATION OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE
SCALE ASCENT DRAMATICALLY INCREASES TODAY. GUSTY WINDS TO 60 MPH
WILL BE THE LARGEST THREAT TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 18Z AND WILL BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE
IF AT ALL. CONDITIONS WILL STAY GENERALLY BREEZY TODAY. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...SO CIGS AND VIS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH/JAM
AVIATION...JAM




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 750 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF SHOWERS.
BRISK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER ON MOTHERS DAY WITH MOST OF THE
AREA EXPECTED TO BE DRY. COOLER BUT DRIER WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...RADAR STILL FOLLOWING A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. OTHERWISE DRY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF
CLOUDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. A SPRINKLE WAS NOTED AT
NORTH ADAMS.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL AROUND 60 IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...50S
HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE READINGS WILL SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE 50S
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

A MAINLY SOUTHEAST WIND AVERAGE 5-10 MPH WITH A FEW LOCALLY
STRONGER GUSTS.

ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
STATE...WHICH WILL ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WERE SOME MARINE ISSUES IN SOUTHERN AREAS EARLIER...WITH SOME
HAZE AND LOW CLOUDS. THESE HAVE "MIXED" OUT DUE TO LOWERING
DEWPOINTS.

OUR STUBBORN UPPER AIR LOW...WAS SLOWLY EXITING OFF THE DELMARVA
PENNISULA AND CONTINUED TO WEAKEN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES...ALTHOUGH WE DID DELAY THE
SHOWERS A COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR INFORMATION.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO WORK INTO AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE HUDSON VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK...AND
OUR EASTERN AREAS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. UNLIKE THE LAST SYSTEM...THIS
ONE IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 45-50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NCEP MODEL SUITE ALL SUGGEST THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WILL BE EAST
OF THE HUDSON BETWEEN 12Z-15Z SUNDAY. FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR A
RATHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION AS H850 TEMPS DIP AROUND 0C
WITH JUST BELOW ZERO VALUES NORTH OF I90 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD MIXING WITH ISALLOBARIC
RISES UNDERWAY IN THE WAKE OF FROPA. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
COMMENCE WITH MAGNITUDES INTO THE 25-35KT RANGE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TOP OUT AROUND
60F WITH MAINLY 50S FOR THE REGION /UPR 40S FOR THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN/.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WE REMAIN WITH THE COOL AND
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY DIVES
SOUTHWARD. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS NORTH OF I90 THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY /MAY MIX WITH SOME
SNOW AT NIGHT WHERE H850 TEMPS ARE BELOW ZERO/. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS...ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. COULD BE SOME FROST/FREEZE ISSUES
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN /MAINLY HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER BUT
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE REGION BEING PLACED IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME ALOFT...WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTHWESTWARD UP TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...DESPITE A COUPLE SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT
ENOUGH DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL VARY BETWEEN MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED BEGINNING THURSDAY
NIGHT AS PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING MEAN
LONGWAVE TROUGH BRING PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEKEND. THERE STILL
REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE SHORTWAVES/BETTER
PERIODS OF RAINFALL...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SHOT
OF RAINFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY/MID MAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S...WITH THE WARMEST DAY EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WHEN THEY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLIER THIS EVENING WE WERE DEALING WITH SOME IFR
ISSUE AT KPSF AND KPOU THANKS TO A MARINE LAYER TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
AN INVERSION.  EVEN AT KALB HIGH LEVEL MVFR CLOUDS WERE NOTED.

AS THE UPPER AIR LOW PULLS AWAY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...DRIER
AIR FROM THE WEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ALLOW CIGS TO RISE BACK
INTO THE VFR THRESHOLD AT KALB LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WE
THINK MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT KPOU AND KPSF.

LATER TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT...STILL TO ENTER WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...WILL DRIVE A LINE OF SHOWERS INTO THE TAF SITES WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY DROP CONDITIONS TO LOW MVFR (EXTRA FUEL
REQUIRED) BY 10Z-12Z AT ALL TAFS WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING INTO THE
MVFR RANGE AS WELL.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND EXPECTED THIS EVENING 5-10KTS WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS AT KALB.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY ABOUT 15Z
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
WIND WILL TURN WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...GUSTING TO 20KTS BY 17Z AT KGFL AND KPOU AND 30KTS AT KPSF
AND KALB. MVFR WILL BECOME VFR BY 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM 10-20 KTS FROM THE W-NW AND BECOME GUSTY AS WELL.
THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTN WITH NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP RH ELEVATED INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. CLEARING AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL SET UP SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE WEEK. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASING TO 10
TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ON SUNDAY...BUT RECENT RAINFALL AND
INCREASING GREENING OF FOLIAGE WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OUTSIDE OF TIDAL CONCERNS ALONG THE HUDSON AT POUGHKEEPSIE...NO
HYDROLOGICAL RELATED ISSUES FROM RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. QPF
AMOUNTS AVERAGE AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE BASINS
WILL RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES. THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...BGM/SNYDER




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 408 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR REGION WITH CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF WET WEATHER. THIS STORM BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY DURING
SATURDAY...HOWEVER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THAT WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BRISK CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOTHERS DAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS OUR PERSISTENT QUASI-
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR DELMARVA WITH DEFORMATION AXIS
ALONG I81 CORRIDOR. AN ADDITIONAL WAVE SEEN JUST OFFSHORE WAS
ADVANCING NORTH-NORTHWEST. PER THE HRRR...SEEMS THIS WAVE WILL
ENHANCE THE LIFT FOR MORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS SHOULD ROTATE FURTHER WEST WITH SOMEWHAT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. YET CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD
PERSIST AS OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM THIS
AFTERNOONS HIGHS AS LOWER LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES DO NOT CHANGE
TOO MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THE OMEGA PATTERN BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AS OUR UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH AND LIFT EASTWARD.
SO IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST 2/3RDS OF THE REGION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. UPSTREAM...H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A RATHER
SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. SO THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
MINIMAL SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS
AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES. SO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE /SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE/...AND SLIGHTLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S WITH 50S
ELSEWHERE.

THIS UPSTREAM SYSTEM PROGRESSIVELY MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THE BEST QG FORCING RIDES MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS. AS FOR
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK LESS THAN IDEAL
WITH SHOWALTER VALUES REMAINING RATHER POSITIVE. SO WE WILL
WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY INTO THE 40S.

FOR MOTHERS DAY, DEPARTING SHOWERS EAST OF I87 THEN AN ISALLOBARICRISE
COUPLET MOVES ACROSS FOR RATHER BRISK CONDITIONS TO EVOLVE. PER
BUFKIT PROFILES MOMENTUM TRANSFER...WE TAP INTO THE 30KT RANGE AS
THESE VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. H850 TEMPS
DROP BACK TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE DACKS WITH LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
ELSEWHERE. SO HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE ACHIEVED AROUND THE NOON
HOUR WITH STEADY TO SLOWING FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT COULD BECOME QUITE CHILLY
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING FOR MOST OF THE REGION. LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY
OFF ONTARIO MAY KEEP IN THE CLOUDS A BIT LONGER AND SOME SHOWERS
YET THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOOKS TO BE BELOW 5K FEET SO WE WILL
KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST 06/12Z MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS MERIDIONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3 CONUS. FOR OUR
REGION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN A LARGE
FAVORABLE REGION OF SOME UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY INTO MID MAY.

OVERALL...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL.
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WILL HAVE A TRAILING W-E STATIONARY FRONT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE PERTURBATIONS ALONG THE ESTABLISHED
BAROCLINIC ZONE. SOME OF THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO PARTS THE REGION AT TIMES ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE LOW PRESSURE PERTURBATIONS WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN REGION.

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION AS WE GO TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT KALB/KPSF/KGFL AND MVFR AT
KPOU. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS NOW WEST OF THE TAF
SITES...BUT RADAR TRENDS AND THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THESE ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS MAY LOWER VSBYS/CIGS
DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES. LIGHT N-NE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 KTS OR
LESS.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR AT KGFL/KALB...SOME CIGS
MAY EVEN LOWER DOWN TO IFR AT KPOU/KPSF DUE TO THE EARLIER
RAINFALL TODAY KEEPING LOW LEVELS RATHER MOIST. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS POSSIBLE BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY...OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR
ALL SITES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT SOGGY CONDITIONS AND CLOUD COVERAGE HAS KEPT THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ELEVATED TO REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ELEVATED MOISTURE
LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THE REGION RATHER MOIST. WINDS INCREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35
MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINIMAL HYDROLOGY RELATED ISSUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LATEST REGIONAL BASIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO AVERAGE ONE HALF OF AN INCH. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES BUT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES. THE ONLY SLIGHT CONCERN HAS BEEN TIDAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE
HUDSON AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER DELMARVA ALONG WITH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BRING WATER LEVELS TOWARD ACTION
STAGE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 126 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY. SOME RAIN
IS ALSO EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. IN ITS
WAKE...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF
MOTHERS DAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF NOON EDT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST AS UPPER
LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE.
WAVES OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTH THEN NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AS H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A
DRY SLOT APPROACHING NYC/LI AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER AREA OF MOIST ADVECTION WAS SEEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ADVANCING NORTH-NORTHWEST AS PER THE HRRR/RAP13...THIS MAY
REINVIGORATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WX FIELDS...SKY
COVERAGE PER 1KM VIS IMAGERY AND TWEAK HOURLY TEMPS PER OBS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE ONSET OF RAIN IS DELAYED UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WHERE CLEARING HAS
OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING. COOLER 50S WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN WILL MOVE IN QUICKER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY THIS EVENING AS
THE CUT-OFF LOW HALTS ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESS NEAR THE MASON-DIXON
LINE AS IT BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN. PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL MENTION SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY COULD END UP BEING THE NICEST DAY WE HAVE SEEN SINCE
APRIL ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
AFTERNOON FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO SEE PARTIAL SUNSHINE. THE CUT-OFF
LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY DEPART AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DUE TO A DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SOME BRIEF RIDGING SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.
WILL STILL HAVE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO...AS WE WILL STILL BE IN A CYCLONIC
FLOW THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY INTO OUR REGION. GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
AHEAD OF THE LEADING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS. THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY
MORNING...IT WILL TURN BREEZY...COOLER AND DRIER FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE GUSTY W-NW
WINDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. GOOD MIXING DEVELOPING DUE TO COLD ADVECTION WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN WINDS GUSTING TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOME ISOLATED 40 MPH GUSTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL NIGHTTIME LOWS.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD IN MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED. A PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL GET
ABSORBED INTO THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH AS PIECES OF
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ROTATE ABOUT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT
MOVES OVER EASTERN QUEBEC AND NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR THIS WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDING WELL EASTWARD FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER/RAIN ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EVENING. THE BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE
BOUNDARY SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS TO OUR SOUTH
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE
WHEN EXACTLY THIS HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE PATTERN IS WET WITH OUR
AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND LOW.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...RIDGING IS ANTICIPATED
TO BUILD IN AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT KALB/KPSF/KGFL AND MVFR AT
KPOU. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS NOW WEST OF THE TAF
SITES...BUT RADAR TRENDS AND THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THESE ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS MAY LOWER VSBYS/CIGS
DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES. LIGHT N-NE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 KTS OR
LESS.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR AT KGFL/KALB...SOME CIGS
MAY EVEN LOWER DOWN TO IFR AT KPOU/KPSF DUE TO THE EARLIER
RAINFALL TODAY KEEPING LOW LEVELS RATHER MOIST. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS POSSIBLE BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY...OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR
ALL SITES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY. SOME RAIN
IS ALSO EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. IN ITS
WAKE...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF
MOTHERS DAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP TO
AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND 55 TO 75 PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT TONIGHT...DROPPING TO AROUND 50 TO 70 PERCENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING EAST
AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MEANDERS CLOSE TO THE REGION. SOME RAIN WILL OCCUR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER
LOW NEARBY. MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
RETURN FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE AROUND A HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF AN INCH...WITH SOME HIGH TERRAIN /ESPECIALLY IN THE
CATSKILLS/ SEEING CLOSE TO AN INCH. WITH VEGETATION CONTINUING TO
GREEN UP...THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGY ISSUES FOR
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ONLY VERY MODEST RISES ARE EXPECTED ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 158 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
LATER TODAY, THEN LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWING BY HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA DURING TUESDAY, THEN STALLS IN OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRAVERSING THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE
HEAVIER RAIN TO CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND OUT OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH SOME TAPERING OFF
EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST LATER IN THE DAY.

SPC HAS EXPANDED THE AREA OF GENERAL THUNDER SO HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. CONSIDERABLE
INSTABILITY ALOFT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER/ASSOCIATED
SMALL HAIL WITH VERY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ NEAR
6000 FT. NOT SURE WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE THUNDER EXCEPT SFC
CONVERGENCE WITH THE LOW COMING ASHORE AND PERHAPS SOME AFTERNOON
SFC HEATING NEAR THE APPROACHING LOW OVER DE. TEMPS MAY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER THAN YDY I95 NWWD.

A GUSTY NE WIND FOR A TIME THIS MORNING NEAR 20 MPH EXCEPT GUSTS
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES MAY APPROACH
35 MPH (SEE HRRR GUSTS AS A BAND OF STRONGER WIND WELL NORTH OF
THE LOW CENTER SHIFTS WESTWARD WITH LOW ALONG THE S SHORE OF LI).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HAVE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS AND ANY LEFTOVER
ISOLATED EVENING TSTMS (SE PA/S NJ). CONFIDENCE ON WHAT OCCURS
AND WHERE, IS BELOW AVERAGE. IN PART THIS IS DUE TO RECENT LOSS
OF CONFIDENCE IN GFS QPF FCSTS. NE WIND DIMINISHING THIS EVENING
AND BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY ON THE DELMARVA, POSSIBLY EVEN TO
I95.

FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT WIND IN THE MIDST
OF VERTICALLY STACKED MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FCST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/6 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN INITIAL CLOSED LOW CENTERED
OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE OPENS UP DURING
SATURDAY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT MONDAY. A
WEAK RIDGE THEN ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE WARM
FRONT ALSO MOVING THROUGH. THE WARM FRONT HOWEVER MAY END UP
STALLING IN OUR VICINITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ENERGY SHEARS
EASTWARD ALONG IT. GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANGE, MUCH WARMER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK WITH THIS CHANGE STARTING OVER THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY DURING SUNDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE WARMING THOUGH
NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MAY MEANDER ACROSS OUR CWA AND ALSO PRECIPITATION CHCS. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN BLENDED
IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THIS TIME FRAME BEGINS WITH A CLOSED LOW
RIGHT OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN
UP AND SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE DUE
TO A KICKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A CORE OF -20C TO -24C AIR AT 500 MB IS OVER OUR AREA
SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS MODIFIES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
TROUGH OPENS UP AND SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. THE PRESENCE OF COLD AIR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME LIFT FROM THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY INLAND. THE FLOW IS
LIGHT UNDER THE CLOSED LOW THEREFORE SHOWERS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVERS.
SINCE THE AIRMASS IS WARMING DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, THIS MAY
MITIGATE THE INSTABILITY POTENTIAL. IT APPEARS ANY INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THEREFORE THUNDER WAS NOT ADDED FOR SATURDAY ATTM. AS
WE LOSE THE CONTINUOUS ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT AND THE TROUGH ALOFT
WEAKENING THROUGH SATURDAY, THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE.

AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THEN STARTS TO NEAR OUR
AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS FRONT
MAY MOVE IN A BIT FASTER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO DRIVE SOME SHOWERS
/PERHAPS A BAND OF SHOWERS/ ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. THE STRONGEST
FORCING MAY GLANCE OUR NORTHERN AREAS AND THEREFORE THE HIGHEST POPS
WERE PLACED THERE LATER AT NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT ALSO EXITS, THEN DRIER AIR
AND BETTER MIXING WILL PROMOTE SUNSHINE FINALLY RETURNING FOR THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THOUGH SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WE WENT A BIT WARMER THAN MOS FOR SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN GIVEN DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE WINDS TO
DIMINISH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES DURING MONDAY,
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER OUR CWA TO START BUT IT
LOOKS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AND WITH DOWNSTREAM WAA
INCREASING, A WARMER TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED. THE WAA WILL BE USHERED
IN VIA A WARM FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA DURING TUESDAY, AND THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THAT
THIS FRONT MAY THEN STALL IN OUR AREA AS ENERGY INITIALLY SHEARS
EASTWARD ALONG IT. THIS SHEARING ENERGY COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE AS IT LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, HOWEVER A
TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MAY PUSH THE FRONT
FARTHER SOUTHWARD. THIS SOUTHWARD PUSH COULD BE ENHANCED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAY BUILD DOWN SOME FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A TROUGH IN
THE MIDWEST HOWEVER PUSHES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE UP THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH DOWNSTREAM WAA AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO START LIFTING NORTHWARD SOME AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE ON THE WARMER SIDE, HOWEVER THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WE BLENDED
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY AND THEN MADE SOME TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY CLEARED THE TERMINALS WITH ONLY SOME SHOWERS,
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, AFFECTING KRDG THROUGH 19Z. LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC AND INTO OUR
AREA. AS THIS OCCURS, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY ALOFT WHILE THE LOW
LEVELS CONTINUE TO HAVE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO
MORE OF A DRIZZLE EVENT AND WE TRANSITION THE TERMINALS TO DRIZZLE
FROM 22Z-00Z AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, LOW CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE
THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BASES
WILL GRADUALLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BELOW 1000FT,
DROPPING AS LOW AS 400 FT AT SOME LOCATIONS. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY...IMPROVMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS ON IN THE EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL START TO
SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WE EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
TO RISE BY MID TO LATE MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO GO VFR BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE AT NIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT, DROPPING CONDITIONS BELOW VFR. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, OTHERWISE VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 12-18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISH AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR, THEN POSSIBLY SOME MVFR DURING TUESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS MONDAY, BECOMING LIGHT AT NIGHT THEN SHIFTING
TO SOUTHERLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON OUR NORTHERN TWO
OCEAN ZONES TO A GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SCA CONTINUES OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY DUE TO
SEAS.

FOG MAY BECOME A MARINE HAZARD LATER THIS FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW
INITIALLY OVERHEAD WEAKENS AND THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE SEAS MAY BE
RIGHT AT 5 FEET TO START ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS BUT
OVERALL THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE TRENDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THEREFORE WE DID NOT EXTEND THE ADVISORY ATTM.

SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TURN GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET. IT IS POSSIBLE WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS
NEARSHORE, HOWEVER OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DESPITE
SOME INCREASE IN A SOUTHERLY WIND MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN LATER
TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PLEASE SEE THE HAZARD CFW STATEMENT FOR THE PARTICULARS RELATING
TO EACH AREA.

PHL: TIDAL DE ADVY EXPIRED BUT MAY NEED A NEW ONE TO BE ISSUED
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
CONFIDENCE IN EXCEEDING THE ADVY THRESHOLD WAS NOT QUITE
CATEGORICAL ON THIS SHIFT.

REEDY POINT UPPER DE BAY, LOWER TIDAL DE LINKED: REISSUED FOR LATE
THIS EVENING, SINCE CONFIDENCE IS CATEGORICAL THAT IT WILL REOCCUR,
ESPECIALLY BECAUSE THE FUNNELED ENE FLOW THIS MORNING TURNS LIGHT
SOUTH THIS EVENING.

NJ/DE ATLC COASTS: NO CHANGE IN THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE TIDAL
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND 1 TO 1.5 FEET TODAY IN THE
CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE SAW
MANY OBSERVING SITES EITHER JUST REACH OR FALL JUST SHY OF
MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WE ARE FORECASTING MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING AROUND THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE AND MODERATE FLOODING
AROUND THIS FRIDAY EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. RATHER THAN CARRY MULTIPLE
HEADLINES, WE CONTINUED WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING TO COVER
BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY LINGER WITH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 1134 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
LATER TODAY, THEN LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWING BY HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA DURING TUESDAY, THEN STALLS IN OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRAVERSING THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE
HEAVIER RAIN TO CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND OUT OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH SOME TAPERING OFF
EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST LATER IN THE DAY.

SPC HAS EXPANDED THE AREA OF GENERAL THUNDER SO HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. CONSIDERABLE
INSTABILITY ALOFT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER/ASSOCIATED
SMALL HAIL WITH VERY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ NEAR
6000 FT. NOT SURE WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE THUNDER EXCEPT SFC
CONVERGENCE WITH THE LOW COMING ASHORE AND PERHAPS SOME AFTERNOON
SFC HEATING NEAR THE APPROACHING LOW OVER DE. TEMPS MAY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER THAN YDY I95 NWWD.

A GUSTY NE WIND FOR A TIME THIS MORNING NEAR 20 MPH EXCEPT GUSTS
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES MAY APPROACH
35 MPH (SEE HRRR GUSTS AS A BAND OF STRONGER WIND WELL NORTH OF
THE LOW CENTER SHIFTS WESTWARD WITH LOW ALONG THE S SHORE OF LI).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HAVE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS AND ANY LEFTOVER
ISOLATED EVENING TSTMS (SE PA/S NJ). CONFIDENCE ON WHAT OCCURS
AND WHERE, IS BELOW AVERAGE. IN PART THIS IS DUE TO RECENT LOSS
OF CONFIDENCE IN GFS QPF FCSTS. NE WIND DIMINISHING THIS EVENING
AND BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY ON THE DELMARVA, POSSIBLY EVEN TO
I95.

FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT WIND IN THE MIDST
OF VERTICALLY STACKED MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FCST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/6 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN INITIAL CLOSED LOW CENTERED
OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE OPENS UP DURING
SATURDAY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT MONDAY. A
WEAK RIDGE THEN ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE WARM
FRONT ALSO MOVING THROUGH. THE WARM FRONT HOWEVER MAY END UP
STALLING IN OUR VICINITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ENERGY SHEARS
EASTWARD ALONG IT. GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANGE, MUCH WARMER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK WITH THIS CHANGE STARTING OVER THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY DURING SUNDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE WARMING THOUGH
NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MAY MEANDER ACROSS OUR CWA AND ALSO PRECIPITATION CHCS. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN BLENDED
IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THIS TIME FRAME BEGINS WITH A CLOSED LOW
RIGHT OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN
UP AND SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE DUE
TO A KICKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A CORE OF -20C TO -24C AIR AT 500 MB IS OVER OUR AREA
SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS MODIFIES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
TROUGH OPENS UP AND SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. THE PRESENCE OF COLD AIR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME LIFT FROM THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY INLAND. THE FLOW IS
LIGHT UNDER THE CLOSED LOW THEREFORE SHOWERS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVERS.
SINCE THE AIRMASS IS WARMING DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, THIS MAY
MITIGATE THE INSTABILITY POTENTIAL. IT APPEARS ANY INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THEREFORE THUNDER WAS NOT ADDED FOR SATURDAY ATTM. AS
WE LOSE THE CONTINUOUS ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT AND THE TROUGH ALOFT
WEAKENING THROUGH SATURDAY, THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE.

AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THEN STARTS TO NEAR OUR
AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS FRONT
MAY MOVE IN A BIT FASTER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO DRIVE SOME SHOWERS
/PERHAPS A BAND OF SHOWERS/ ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. THE STRONGEST
FORCING MAY GLANCE OUR NORTHERN AREAS AND THEREFORE THE HIGHEST POPS
WERE PLACED THERE LATER AT NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT ALSO EXITS, THEN DRIER AIR
AND BETTER MIXING WILL PROMOTE SUNSHINE FINALLY RETURNING FOR THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THOUGH SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WE WENT A BIT WARMER THAN MOS FOR SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN GIVEN DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE WINDS TO
DIMINISH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES DURING MONDAY,
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER OUR CWA TO START BUT IT
LOOKS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AND WITH DOWNSTREAM WAA
INCREASING, A WARMER TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED. THE WAA WILL BE USHERED
IN VIA A WARM FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA DURING TUESDAY, AND THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THAT
THIS FRONT MAY THEN STALL IN OUR AREA AS ENERGY INITIALLY SHEARS
EASTWARD ALONG IT. THIS SHEARING ENERGY COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE AS IT LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, HOWEVER A
TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MAY PUSH THE FRONT
FARTHER SOUTHWARD. THIS SOUTHWARD PUSH COULD BE ENHANCED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAY BUILD DOWN SOME FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A TROUGH IN
THE MIDWEST HOWEVER PUSHES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE UP THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH DOWNSTREAM WAA AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO START LIFTING NORTHWARD SOME AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE ON THE WARMER SIDE, HOWEVER THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WE BLENDED
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY AND THEN MADE SOME TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...CIGS GENERALLY VARIABLE 600-1600 FT VSBY 1-4 MI IN SHOWERY
RAINS DURING THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING
KACY/KMIV AND THEN DURING THE AFTN ELSEWHERE. TSTMS NOT IN TAF DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND ISOLATED NATURE. NE WIND...GUSTS 15-23 KT FOR
A TIME LATER THIS MORNING-MIDDAY.

TONIGHT... MVFR/IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG, POSSIBLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS.
DIMINISHING NE WIND THIS EVENING NEAR AND N OF I78. OTHERWISE LIGHT
WIND TRENDING SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN
THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED WHICH CAN
LOCALLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY FOR A TIME, THEN A BAND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES LATE AT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, OTHERWISE VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 12-18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISH AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR, THEN POSSIBLY SOME MVFR DURING TUESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS MONDAY, BECOMING LIGHT AT NIGHT THEN SHIFTING
TO SOUTHERLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON OUR NORTHERN TWO
OCEAN ZONES TO A GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SCA CONTINUES OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY DUE TO
SEAS.

FOG MAY BECOME A MARINE HAZARD LATER THIS FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW
INITIALLY OVERHEAD WEAKENS AND THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE SEAS MAY BE
RIGHT AT 5 FEET TO START ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS BUT
OVERALL THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE TRENDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THEREFORE WE DID NOT EXTEND THE ADVISORY ATTM.

SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TURN GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET. IT IS POSSIBLE WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS
NEARSHORE, HOWEVER OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DESPITE
SOME INCREASE IN A SOUTHERLY WIND MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN LATER
TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PLEASE SEE THE HAZARD CFW STATEMENT FOR THE PARTICULARS RELATING
TO EACH AREA.

PHL: TIDAL DE ADVY EXPIRED BUT MAY NEED A NEW ONE TO BE ISSUED
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
CONFIDENCE IN EXCEEDING THE ADVY THRESHOLD WAS NOT QUITE
CATEGORICAL ON THIS SHIFT.

REEDY POINT UPPER DE BAY, LOWER TIDAL DE LINKED: REISSUED FOR LATE
THIS EVENING, SINCE CONFIDENCE IS CATEGORICAL THAT IT WILL REOCCUR,
ESPECIALLY BECAUSE THE FUNNELED ENE FLOW THIS MORNING TURNS LIGHT
SOUTH THIS EVENING.

NJ/DE ATLC COASTS: NO CHANGE IN THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE TIDAL
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND 1 TO 1.5 FEET TODAY IN THE
CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE SAW
MANY OBSERVING SITES EITHER JUST REACH OR FALL JUST SHY OF
MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WE ARE FORECASTING MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING AROUND THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE AND MODERATE FLOODING
AROUND THIS FRIDAY EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. RATHER THAN CARRY MULTIPLE
HEADLINES, WE CONTINUED WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING TO COVER
BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY LINGER WITH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 953 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
LATER TODAY, THEN LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWING BY HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA DURING TUESDAY, THEN STALLS IN OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRAVERSING THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE
HEAVIER RAIN TO CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND OUT OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH SOME TAPERING OFF
EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST LATER IN THE DAY.

SPC HAS EXPANDED THE AREA OF GENERAL THUNDER SO HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. CONSIDERABLE
INSTABILITY ALOFT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER/ASSOCIATED
SMALL HAIL WITH VERY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ NEAR
6000 FT. NOT SURE WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE THUNDER EXCEPT SFC
CONVERGENCE WITH THE LOW COMING ASHORE AND PERHAPS SOME AFTERNOON
SFC HEATING NEAR THE APPROACHING LOW OVER DE. TEMPS MAY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER THAN YDY I95 NWWD.

A GUSTY NE WIND FOR A TIME THIS MORNING NEAR 20 MPH EXCEPT GUSTS
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES MAY APPROACH
35 MPH (SEE HRRR GUSTS AS A BAND OF STRONGER WIND WELL NORTH OF
THE LOW CENTER SHIFTS WESTWARD WITH LOW ALONG THE S SHORE OF LI).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HAVE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS AND ANY LEFTOVER
ISOLATED EVENING TSTMS (SE PA/S NJ). CONFIDENCE ON WHAT OCCURS
AND WHERE, IS BELOW AVERAGE. IN PART THIS IS DUE TO RECENT LOSS
OF CONFIDENCE IN GFS QPF FCSTS. NE WIND DIMINISHING THIS EVENING
AND BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY ON THE DELMARVA, POSSIBLY EVEN TO
I95.

FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT WIND IN THE MIDST
OF VERTICALLY STACKED MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FCST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/6 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN INITIAL CLOSED LOW CENTERED
OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE OPENS UP DURING
SATURDAY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT MONDAY. A
WEAK RIDGE THEN ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE WARM
FRONT ALSO MOVING THROUGH. THE WARM FRONT HOWEVER MAY END UP
STALLING IN OUR VICINITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ENERGY SHEARS
EASTWARD ALONG IT. GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANGE, MUCH WARMER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK WITH THIS CHANGE STARTING OVER THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY DURING SUNDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE WARMING THOUGH
NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MAY MEANDER ACROSS OUR CWA AND ALSO PRECIPITATION CHCS. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN BLENDED
IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THIS TIME FRAME BEGINS WITH A CLOSED LOW
RIGHT OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN
UP AND SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE DUE
TO A KICKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A CORE OF -20C TO -24C AIR AT 500 MB IS OVER OUR AREA
SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS MODIFIES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
TROUGH OPENS UP AND SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. THE PRESENCE OF COLD AIR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME LIFT FROM THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY INLAND. THE FLOW IS
LIGHT UNDER THE CLOSED LOW THEREFORE SHOWERS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVERS.
SINCE THE AIRMASS IS WARMING DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, THIS MAY
MITIGATE THE INSTABILITY POTENTIAL. IT APPEARS ANY INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THEREFORE THUNDER WAS NOT ADDED FOR SATURDAY ATTM. AS
WE LOSE THE CONTINUOUS ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT AND THE TROUGH ALOFT
WEAKENING THROUGH SATURDAY, THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE.

AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THEN STARTS TO NEAR OUR
AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS FRONT
MAY MOVE IN A BIT FASTER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO DRIVE SOME SHOWERS
/PERHAPS A BAND OF SHOWERS/ ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. THE STRONGEST
FORCING MAY GLANCE OUR NORTHERN AREAS AND THEREFORE THE HIGHEST POPS
WERE PLACED THERE LATER AT NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT ALSO EXITS, THEN DRIER AIR
AND BETTER MIXING WILL PROMOTE SUNSHINE FINALLY RETURNING FOR THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THOUGH SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WE WENT A BIT WARMER THAN MOS FOR SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN GIVEN DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE WINDS TO
DIMINISH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES DURING MONDAY,
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER OUR CWA TO START BUT IT
LOOKS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AND WITH DOWNSTREAM WAA
INCREASING, A WARMER TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED. THE WAA WILL BE USHERED
IN VIA A WARM FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA DURING TUESDAY, AND THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THAT
THIS FRONT MAY THEN STALL IN OUR AREA AS ENERGY INITIALLY SHEARS
EASTWARD ALONG IT. THIS SHEARING ENERGY COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE AS IT LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, HOWEVER A
TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MAY PUSH THE FRONT
FARTHER SOUTHWARD. THIS SOUTHWARD PUSH COULD BE ENHANCED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAY BUILD DOWN SOME FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A TROUGH IN
THE MIDWEST HOWEVER PUSHES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE UP THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH DOWNSTREAM WAA AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO START LIFTING NORTHWARD SOME AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE ON THE WARMER SIDE, HOWEVER THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WE BLENDED
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY AND THEN MADE SOME TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...CIGS GENERALLY VARIABLE 600-1600 FT VSBY 1-4 MI IN SHOWERY
RAINS DURING THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING
KACY/KMIV AND THEN DURING THE AFTN ELSEWHERE. TSTMS NOT IN TAF DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND ISOLATED NATURE. NE WIND...GUSTS 15-23 KT FOR
A TIME LATER THIS MORNING-MIDDAY.

TONIGHT... MVFR/IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG, POSSIBLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS.
DIMINISHING NE WIND THIS EVENING NEAR AND N OF I78. OTHERWISE LIGHT
WIND TRENDING SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN
THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED WHICH CAN
LOCALLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY FOR A TIME, THEN A BAND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES LATE AT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, OTHERWISE VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 12-18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISH AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR, THEN POSSIBLY SOME MVFR DURING TUESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS MONDAY, BECOMING LIGHT AT NIGHT THEN SHIFTING
TO SOUTHERLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LETTING THE SCA ON THE DELAWARE BAY EXPIRE AS WINDS ARE IN THE
MID TEENS AND NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY.

SCA CONTINUES OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY DUE TO
SEAS.

SMALL CHANCE WE WILL NEED TO UPGRADE TO A SHORT FUSE SHORT DURATION
GALE ANZ450-451 FOR THE PERIOD 16Z-21Z. CONFIDENCE IN UPGRADING
WAS LESS THAN 80 PCT SO HAVE HELD OFF FOR NOW.

FOG MAY BECOME A MARINE HAZARD LATER THIS FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW
INITIALLY OVERHEAD WEAKENS AND THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE SEAS MAY BE
RIGHT AT 5 FEET TO START ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS BUT
OVERALL THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE TRENDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THEREFORE WE DID NOT EXTEND THE ADVISORY ATTM.

SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TURN GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET. IT IS POSSIBLE WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS
NEARSHORE, HOWEVER OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DESPITE
SOME INCREASE IN A SOUTHERLY WIND MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN LATER
TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PLEASE SEE THE HAZARD CFW STATEMENT FOR THE PARTICULARS RELATING
TO EACH AREA.

PHL: TIDAL DE ADVY EXPIRED BUT MAY NEED A NEW ONE TO BE ISSUED
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
CONFIDENCE IN EXCEEDING THE ADVY THRESHOLD WAS NOT QUITE
CATEGORICAL ON THIS SHIFT.

REEDY POINT UPPER DE BAY, LOWER TIDAL DE LINKED: REISSUED FOR LATE
THIS EVENING, SINCE CONFIDENCE IS CATEGORICAL THAT IT WILL REOCCUR,
ESPECIALLY BECAUSE THE FUNNELED ENE FLOW THIS MORNING TURNS LIGHT
SOUTH THIS EVENING.

NJ/DE ATLC COASTS: NO CHANGE IN THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE TIDAL
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND 1 TO 1.5 FEET TODAY IN THE
CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE SAW
MANY OBSERVING SITES EITHER JUST REACH OR FALL JUST SHY OF
MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WE ARE FORECASTING MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING AROUND THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE AND MODERATE FLOODING
AROUND THIS FRIDAY EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. RATHER THAN CARRY MULTIPLE
HEADLINES, WE CONTINUED WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING TO COVER
BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY LINGER WITH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 634 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
LATER TODAY, THEN LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWING BY HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA DURING TUESDAY, THEN STALLS IN OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHILLY SHOWERY RAINS THIS MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON THOUGH WITH MOIST INFLOW BENEATH A
COOLING 500MB LAYER (-24C NEAR PHL AT 00Z THIS EVENING) WE COULD
SEE LOW TOP SHOWERS CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COASTS AND SWEEP
WESTWARD) . CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY ALOFT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER/ASSOCIATED SMALL HAIL WITH VERY STEEP MID LVL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ NEAR 6000 FT. NOT SURE WHAT WILL TRIGGER
THE THUNDER EXCEPT SFC CONVERGENCE WITH THE LOW COMING ASHORE AND
PERHAPS SOME AFTERNOON SFC HEATING NEAR THE APPROACHING LOW OVER
DE. TEMPS MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN YDY I95 NWWD.

A GUSTY NE WIND FOR A TIME THIS MORNING NEAR 20 MPH EXCEPT GUSTS
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES MAY APPROACH
35 MPH (SEE HRRR GUSTS AS A BAND OF STRONGER WIND WELL NORTH OF
THE LOW CENTER SHIFTS WESTWARD WITH LOW ALONG THE S SHORE OF LI).

FCST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/6 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HAVE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS AND ANY LEFTOVER
ISOLATED EVENING TSTMS (SE PA/S NJ). CONFIDENCE ON WHAT OCCURS
AND WHERE, IS BELOW AVERAGE. IN PART THIS IS DUE TO RECENT LOSS
OF CONFIDENCE IN GFS QPF FCSTS. NE WIND DIMINISHING THIS EVENING
AND BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY ON THE DELMARVA, POSSIBLY EVEN TO
I95.

FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT WIND IN THE MIDST
OF VERTICALLY STACKED MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FCST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/6 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN INITIAL CLOSED LOW CENTERED
OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE OPENS UP DURING
SATURDAY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT MONDAY. A
WEAK RIDGE THEN ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE WARM
FRONT ALSO MOVING THROUGH. THE WARM FRONT HOWEVER MAY END UP
STALLING IN OUR VICINITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ENERGY SHEARS
EASTWARD ALONG IT. GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANGE, MUCH WARMER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK WITH THIS CHANGE STARTING OVER THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY DURING SUNDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE WARMING THOUGH
NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MAY MEANDER ACROSS OUR CWA AND ALSO PRECIPITATION CHCS. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN BLENDED
IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THIS TIME FRAME BEGINS WITH A CLOSED LOW
RIGHT OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN
UP AND SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE DUE
TO A KICKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A CORE OF -20C TO -24C AIR AT 500 MB IS OVER OUR AREA
SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS MODIFIES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
TROUGH OPENS UP AND SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. THE PRESENCE OF COLD AIR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME LIFT FROM THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY INLAND. THE FLOW IS
LIGHT UNDER THE CLOSED LOW THEREFORE SHOWERS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVERS.
SINCE THE AIRMASS IS WARMING DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, THIS MAY
MITIGATE THE INSTABILITY POTENTIAL. IT APPEARS ANY INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THEREFORE THUNDER WAS NOT ADDED FOR SATURDAY ATTM. AS
WE LOSE THE CONTINUOUS ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT AND THE TROUGH ALOFT
WEAKENING THROUGH SATURDAY, THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE.

AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THEN STARTS TO NEAR OUR
AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS FRONT
MAY MOVE IN A BIT FASTER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO DRIVE SOME SHOWERS
/PERHAPS A BAND OF SHOWERS/ ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. THE STRONGEST
FORCING MAY GLANCE OUR NORTHERN AREAS AND THEREFORE THE HIGHEST POPS
WERE PLACED THERE LATER AT NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT ALSO EXITS, THEN DRIER AIR
AND BETTER MIXING WILL PROMOTE SUNSHINE FINALLY RETURNING FOR THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THOUGH SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WE WENT A BIT WARMER THAN MOS FOR SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN GIVEN DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE WINDS TO
DIMINISH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES DURING MONDAY,
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER OUR CWA TO START BUT IT
LOOKS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AND WITH DOWNSTREAM WAA
INCREASING, A WARMER TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED. THE WAA WILL BE USHERED
IN VIA A WARM FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA DURING TUESDAY, AND THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THAT
THIS FRONT MAY THEN STALL IN OUR AREA AS ENERGY INITIALLY SHEARS
EASTWARD ALONG IT. THIS SHEARING ENERGY COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE AS IT LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, HOWEVER A
TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MAY PUSH THE FRONT
FARTHER SOUTHWARD. THIS SOUTHWARD PUSH COULD BE ENHANCED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAY BUILD DOWN SOME FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A TROUGH IN
THE MIDWEST HOWEVER PUSHES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE UP THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH DOWNSTREAM WAA AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO START LIFTING NORTHWARD SOME AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE ON THE WARMER SIDE, HOWEVER THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WE BLENDED
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY AND THEN MADE SOME TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...CIGS GENERALLY VARIABLE 600-1600 FT VSBY 1-4 MI IN SHOWERY
RAINS DURING THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING
KACY/KMIV AND THEN DURING THE AFTN ELSEWHERE. TSTMS NOT IN TAF DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND ISOLATED NATURE. NE WIND...GUSTS 15-23 KT FOR
A TIME LATER THIS MORNING-MIDDAY.

TONIGHT... MVFR/IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG, POSSIBLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS.
DIMINISHING NE WIND THIS EVENING NEAR AND N OF I78. OTHERWISE LIGHT
WIND TRENDING SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN
THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED WHICH CAN
LOCALLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY FOR A TIME, THEN A BAND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES LATE AT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, OTHERWISE VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 12-18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISH AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR, THEN POSSIBLY SOME MVFR DURING TUESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS MONDAY, BECOMING LIGHT AT NIGHT THEN SHIFTING
TO SOUTHERLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES OCEAN WATERS AS PREVIOUSLY OUTLINED THROUGH TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY DUE TO SEAS. DECIDED TO CONTINUE DE BAY SCA SINCE A FEW
GUSTS EARLIER NEAR 23 KT. HOWEVER... TRENDS BY MID MORNING SHOULD
BE DECREASING DE BAY.

SMALL CHANCE WE WILL NEED TO UPGRADE TO A SHORT FUSE SHORT DURATION
GALE ANZ450-451 FOR THE PERIOD 16Z-21Z. CONFIDENCE IN UPGRADING
WAS LESS THAN 80 PCT SO HAVE HELD OFF FOR NOW.

FOG MAY BECOME A MARINE HAZARD LATER THIS FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW
INITIALLY OVERHEAD WEAKENS AND THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE SEAS MAY BE
RIGHT AT 5 FEET TO START ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS BUT
OVERALL THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE TRENDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THEREFORE WE DID NOT EXTEND THE ADVISORY ATTM.

SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TURN GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET. IT IS POSSIBLE WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS
NEARSHORE, HOWEVER OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DESPITE
SOME INCREASE IN A SOUTHERLY WIND MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN LATER
TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PLEASE SEE THE HAZARD CFW STATEMENT FOR THE PARTICULARS RELATING
TO EACH AREA.

PHL: TIDAL DE ADVY EXPIRED BUT MAY NEED A NEW ONE TO BE ISSUED
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
CONFIDENCE IN EXCEEDING THE ADVY THRESHOLD WAS NOT QUITE
CATEGORICAL ON THIS SHIFT.

REEDY POINT UPPER DE BAY, LOWER TIDAL DE LINKED: REISSUED FOR LATE
THIS EVENING, SINCE CONFIDENCE IS CATEGORICAL THAT IT WILL REOCCUR,
ESPECIALLY BECAUSE THE FUNNELED ENE FLOW THIS MORNING TURNS LIGHT
SOUTH THIS EVENING.

NJ/DE ATLC COASTS: NO CHANGE IN THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE TIDAL
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND 1 TO 1.5 FEET TODAY IN THE
CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE SAW
MANY OBSERVING SITES EITHER JUST REACH OR FALL JUST SHY OF
MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WE ARE FORECASTING MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING AROUND THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE AND MODERATE FLOODING
AROUND THIS FRIDAY EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. RATHER THAN CARRY MULTIPLE
HEADLINES, WE CONTINUED WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING TO COVER
BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY LINGER WITH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 633
SHORT TERM...DRAG 633
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 633
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 633
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...633




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

 1015 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSEASONABLY COOL THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON... NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND FLOW BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA AND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW EAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AND NEW JERSEY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA
BREEZES POSSIBLE FROM NORTH BREVARD CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON PER SHORT TERM SMALL SCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE
LOCAL WRFARW6.

CURRENT AFTERNOON WIND GRIDS REFLECT SEA BREEZE. MORNING ZONE UPDATE
WILL CLEAN UP WORDING FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.AVIATION...VFR. WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. AIRPORTS AND
AIRFIELDS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 95 AND THE COAST FROM COCOA NORTH MAY
EXPERIENCE A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.  WINDS FALL TO LIGHT
AGAIN THIS EVENING.

.MARINE...
BUOYS RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS IN THE ATLANTIC AND
THE COASTAL CMAN SITES WINDS WERE AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4 AND 6NM OFF THE BEACH WERE RECORDING 2 TO 3
FEET. THE NOAA BUOYS AT 20NM AND 120NM OFFSHORE WERE RECORDING 5 AND 6
FEET RESPECTIVELY.

CURRENT MARINE FORECAST PICKS UP ON A SEA BREEZE WIND IN THE
NEARSHORE MARINE ZONE FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH.

MORNING UPDATE TO CLEAN UP WORDING AND BRING SEAS DOWN A FOOT OR TWO
FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...
SEVERAL HOURS OF RH`S BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PCT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE.  NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND WILL SEE ERC
VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN TOO LOW FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. 20FT WINDS FROM THE NW AT 10-15 MPH.

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR FRI MAY 6:
DAB  42 1940
MCO  49 1945
MLB  49 1963
VRB  52 1973

RECORD LOWS FOR SAT MAY 7:
DAB  45 1940
MCO  49 1921
MLB  53 1992
VRB  52 2013

PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

CURRENT...ANOTHER REINFORCING COOL FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH ECFL
EARLY THIS MORNING AS WITNESSED BY WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY BY A THIN CLOUD LINE. THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL USHER IN DRIER/COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ASIDE FROM A FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED ALONG
THE FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 50S AREAWIDE...GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN SEASONAL NORMS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL
SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES A BIT TODAY AS WNW/NW WINDS INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED.
THE WIND COMPONENT MAY VEER AROUND TO NNE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH NO
THREAT FOR RAIN. ALOFT...A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY EASTWARD SENDING OCNL IMPULSES
ACROSS THE AREA. UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY 70S AREAWIDE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL BELOW SEASONAL AND GENERALLY IN THE L-M
50S...EXCEPT U50S POSSIBLE ACROSS LARGER METROPOLITAN AREAS OR ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR COOL
FRONT WILL BRUSH THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS LATE OVERNIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO DRY/STABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION
OVER LAND.

SAT-TUE...AXIS OF THE DEEP WRN ATLC TROUGH SHIFTS EWD SAT AS THE
OMEGA BLOCK TO THE NORTH BREAKS DOWN. THIS ALLOWS A MID LEVEL RIDGE
TO BUILD EWD ACROSS FL FROM THE GOMEX AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OVER FL INTO THIS
WEEKEND KEEPING CONDS WX WARM AND DRY BUT NOT TERRIBLY HUMID. HIGH
WILL THEN SLIDE EWD WITH ITS AXIS REMAINING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH EARLY MON THEN LIFT NORTH OF CTRL FL TUE....RESULTING IN A
TREND TWD MORE HUMID CONDS. ONE MORE DAY/NIGHT OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS SAT. MAXES NEAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY EXT WEEK WITH MINS RUNNING ABOUT 1-2 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.
ECFL NORMALS FOR EARLY MAY ARE ABOUT 85-88F/63-66F.

WED-FRI...FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...A COUPLE WEAK MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ALOFT WITH LIGHT SE/SRLY FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR A SLGT CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHRA/TS BY
THU (IF NOT WED) PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
REMAIN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WNW/NW WINDS 5-10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TO 10-15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS FALL TO LIGHT AGAIN THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...THE LATEST WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ELEVATED NW WINDS 15-
20 KTS CONTINUING OVER THE OPEN ATLC...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PASS DOWN THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH WNW/NW WINDS INCREASING TOWARDS
CAUTIONARY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN. SEAS STARTING 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE AND
5-6 FT OFFSHORE WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 4 FT
OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

SAT-TUE...NW-NRLY FLOW WILL DECREASE AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO FL
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SEAS OF 3-4FT WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT AS WINDS
DROP AOB 10KT. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT SRLY MON THEN BACK TO SE AND
INCREASE TO 10-15KT TUE AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS NORTH OF CTRL FL. SEAS
OF 2-3FT MON INCREASING BACK TO 3-4FT INTO TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY...SEVERAL HOURS OF RH`S BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PCT
FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE.  NO RAIN IN THE
FORECAST AND WILL SEE ERC VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE BUT THEY SHOULD
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. 20FT WINDS FROM THE NW AT
10-15 MPH.

SAT-TUE...SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES EXPECTED AGAIN
SAT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AND DRY AIR HOLD SWAY. SHALLOW LATE AFTERNOON
MODIFICATION EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST ON SUN DUE TO LOCAL SEA
BREEZE CIRC...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE WX SENSITIVITY
AREAWIDE THIS WEEKEND. GRADUAL MODIFICATION CONTINUES MON ONWARD AS
S-SE FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING HIGH TAKE HOLD.

&&

.CLIMATE...NEAR RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING IN VRB AND MLB/VRB FOR SAT
MORNING. RECORDS LOOK OUT OF REACH ELSEWHERE.

RECORD LOWS FOR FRI MAY 6:
DAB  42 1940
MCO  49 1945
MLB  49 1963
VRB  52 1973

RECORD LOWS FOR SAT MAY 7:
DAB  45 1940
MCO  49 1921
MLB  53 1992
VRB  52 2013

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  56  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  77  57  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  77  58  79  62 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  78  56  79  60 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  77  56  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  77  56  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  78  59  81  63 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  78  54  79  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX/DSS....KELLY



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
905 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016

Cold front has now pushed well south of the central IL forecast
area...with westerly flow aloft pushing over the frontal boundary
producing scattered showers across the area. Overnight...the flow
aloft should increase, producing continued showers, or perhaps an
increase in activity. Elevated instability could produce isolated
to scattered thunderstorms as well in the overnight hours.
Northeast winds will decrease overnight as surface high pressure
crosses the area. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler
tonight in the post- cold-frontal air mass with lows in the upper
40s and low 50s...compared with the upper 50s and low 60s last
night. Updates for trends in shower coverage...otherwise forecast
is in good shape.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016

19z/2pm surface analysis shows cold front sagging southward toward
the I-74 corridor.  With dewpoints pooling in the upper 50s to
around 60 along/ahead of the boundary, latest LAPS data is
indicating SBCAPE values of 1000-1500J/kg.  0-6km bulk shear remains
rather weak, but is expected to increase to between 40 and 50kt
later this afternoon/evening as an upper trough digs into the Great
Lakes.  Given the moderate instability/shear parameters, the
potential exists for a few strong to severe thunderstorms from now
through about 02z/9pm.  HRRR has consistently been showing clusters
of thunderstorms developing across northern Missouri/southern Iowa
this afternoon, then tracking southeastward across mainly the
southern third of the KILX CWA.  Latest radar mosaic confirms the
HRRR, with thunderstorms currently around Quincy moving toward the
Winchester/Jacksonville areas.  Thunderstorms should track/develop
southeastward over the next few hours, impacting locations along and
south of a Rushville...to Lincoln...to Paris line through early
evening.  Main threats from the storms will be gusty winds and hail.
Once this initial wave of convection passes into the Ohio River
Valley, a lull in the precip is expected for the remainder of the
evening.  Overnight...a weak LLJ interacting with the stalled
frontal boundary will result in scattered thunderstorm development
across the entire area.  Have therefore focused highest PoPs across
the S/SE CWA late this afternoon into the early evening, then have
gone with chance PoPs across the board after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016

The cold front will stall out south of our forecast area in the Ohio
River Valley by Sunday morning, with spotty showers lingering in the
post-frontal airmass across central IL. A majority of the day looks
dry, but will keep slight chance PoPs in the forecast due to
channeled vorticity in the northwest flow moving across IL. Sunday
afternoon, precip chances will begin to increase for areas west of
Springfield to Shelbyville, as the front begins to make a faster
northward push west of Illinois.

The warm front will lift northward through our forecast area
starting Sunday night, reaching between I-74 and I-88 by 00z/7pm
Monday. Likely chances of rain and storms will accompany the front,
with increasing PoPs from SW to NE Sunday night and Monday. There
may be a break in the rain Monday morning, which could allow the
atmosphere to recharge in the warm sector over central IL. A few
storms may become strong in our western counties Monday
afternoon/evening west of a line from Rushville to Springfield to
Taylorville, where CAPE values could climb to 1000 J/kg depending on
if any sunshine breaks through for any amount of time. Dewpoints
will climb into the low 60s, providing added fuel for storms.

Central IL will remain in the warm sector Monday night and Tuesday,
when categorical PoPs were expanded in the forecast to cover
increasing instability params. Tuesday afternoon, MUCAPES of 2000
J/kg appear possible, with additional strong storms across the
board. Shear values look marginal, so mainly large hail with those
storms.

Another break in the storms looks possible later Tuesday night and
Wednesday, before a cold front and a line of storms push across
Illinois Wed night.

Cooler air will arrive behind that front, along with some drier air
for Thursday through Friday morning. A cold front projected to reach
central IL Friday afternoon will increase rain and storm chances
once again through Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016

A cold front from KSPI-KMTO as of 6 p.m. will continue pushing
slowly southward this evening with thunderstorms expected to
remain south of the boundary through the evening...although some
scattered showers will spread over the area. Overnight...isolated
to scattered thundestorms are possible again over the area as warm
advection aloft returns, interacting with the frontal boundary
aloft. Little precipitation is expected for Sunday as a narrow
high pressure ridge aloft approaches from the west. Generally VFR
conditions through the period, although isolated MVFR possible in
thunderstorms. Winds N-NE up to 12 kts this evening...decreasing
to under 5 kts by 05Z. Winds SE winds up to 10 kts returning after
17Z Sunday.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

 749 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.UPDATE...
747 PM CDT

QUIET AND MAINLY PLEASANT NIGHT SETTING IN FOR THE AREA WITH ONLY
MINOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW DRAPED OVER THE
MIDSECTION OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AND WILL MOVE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH TONIGHT WITH DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR REPLENISHING INTO THE AREA.
BELIEVE THE SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TO STAY OVER THOSE LOCATIONS...BASICALLY ALONG THE
ELEVATED MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. FURTHER SUPPORTING THIS...THE
00Z ILX RAOB INDICATED NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS SO NOT
SEEING LIKELIHOOD FOR THIS UNSETTLED AXIS TO SHIFT NORTH.

AS A SLIGHT ASIDE...IF NOT FOR THE THICKER HIGH CLOUDS IT WOULD
LIKELY BE QUITE THE VIBRANT SUNSET THIS EVENING GIVEN UPPER LEVEL
SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM FIRES AS SEEN ON LATE DAY VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. MOST OF THE CWA LOOKS TO HAVE JUST THICK ENOUGH TO CIRRUS
TO NOT MAKE OUT THE SUNSET.

GOING FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOK ON TRACK. DEW POINTS HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 20S IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. SOME CIRRUS AND EVEN POSSIBLY THE SMOKE ALOFT WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT A HUGE TEMPERATURE DROP IN THESE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...WHICH IS DIURNALLY THE MOST FAVORED TIME. STILL THOUGH
THINK THERE COULD BE PATCHY FROST IN NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE SOME
OF THESE LOWEST DEW POINTS ARE PRESENTLY.

MTF

&&

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

254 PM...THE COLD FRONT IS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME STATIONARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IL
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
CWA INTO THIS EVENING. CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA AND MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS.

WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BEFORE TURNING WESTERLY. WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...LOWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE LOWER
40S MOST AREAS AND POSSIBLY UPPER 30S IN THE USUAL COOL SPOTS.
MORE WIDESPREAD UPPER 30S WITH SOME MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING HOW LOW
TEMPS MAY DROP THERE...OPTED TO INCLUDE PATCHY FROST MENTION BUT
EVENING SHIFT MAY ABLE TO DROP THIS AS TRENDS EMERGE.

LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS NOW APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
LAKE BREEZE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OR PERHAPS ONSHORE WINDS RIGHT AT
THE LAKESHORE. IN ADDITION...IF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO...THEN HIGH TEMPS MIGHT END UP A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED UPPER 60S/NEAR 70. CMS

&&

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

254 PM...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
COULD BE A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO PRECIP SO FURTHER ADJUSTMENT
TO POPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BUT LIKELY SOUTH OF I-80 LOOKS ON
TRACK. ASSUMING THIS TIMING PANS OUT...COULD BE A LULL MIDDAY
MONDAY AND THEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS TIME PERIOD HAS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD/PROLONGED ACTIVITY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN
IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE AND QPF FORECASTS RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH FOCUS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE POPS. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PRECIP AND THEN DRYING OUT THURSDAY.

A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN ARRIVES FRIDAY AND WHILE THIS
MAY ALSO BRING SOME SHOWERS...MODELS SUGGEST A VERY COOL AIRMASS
FOR MID MAY WITH 850MB TEMPS POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW ZERO HERE
ACROSS NORTHERN IL. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST 5-10KT SUNDAY AND CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO
HOLD ANY POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZE AT BAY THROUGH 00Z. WINDS ARE NOT
TERRIBLY STRONG...SO CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LAKE BREEZE AND
WIND SHIFT TO NE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL
LAKE BREEZE SHIFT LOWER THAN NORMAL.

IZZI

&&

.MARINE...
146 PM CDT

LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WINDS EARLIER
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST SLIDES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WHILE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN...WAVE HEIGHTS CURRENTLY AROUND 7 FT ON THE
ILLINOIS NEARSHORE AND 8-9 FT ALONG THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WILL
TAKE A LITTLE MORE TIME TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. THE ILLINOIS
NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT QUICKER...POTENTIALLY BY
EARLY EVENING...THOUGH WILL KEEP BOTH AREAS IN THE ADVISORY FOR
NOW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT THEN TO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT
BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKE MONDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL RESPOND BY TURNING MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOWS EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE
ROCKIES.

KMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
     UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
704 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016

19z/2pm surface analysis shows cold front sagging southward toward
the I-74 corridor.  With dewpoints pooling in the upper 50s to
around 60 along/ahead of the boundary, latest LAPS data is
indicating SBCAPE values of 1000-1500J/kg.  0-6km bulk shear remains
rather weak, but is expected to increase to between 40 and 50kt
later this afternoon/evening as an upper trough digs into the Great
Lakes.  Given the moderate instability/shear parameters, the
potential exists for a few strong to severe thunderstorms from now
through about 02z/9pm.  HRRR has consistently been showing clusters
of thunderstorms developing across northern Missouri/southern Iowa
this afternoon, then tracking southeastward across mainly the
southern third of the KILX CWA.  Latest radar mosaic confirms the
HRRR, with thunderstorms currently around Quincy moving toward the
Winchester/Jacksonville areas.  Thunderstorms should track/develop
southeastward over the next few hours, impacting locations along and
south of a Rushville...to Lincoln...to Paris line through early
evening.  Main threats from the storms will be gusty winds and hail.
Once this initial wave of convection passes into the Ohio River
Valley, a lull in the precip is expected for the remainder of the
evening.  Overnight...a weak LLJ interacting with the stalled
frontal boundary will result in scattered thunderstorm development
across the entire area.  Have therefore focused highest PoPs across
the S/SE CWA late this afternoon into the early evening, then have
gone with chance PoPs across the board after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016

The cold front will stall out south of our forecast area in the Ohio
River Valley by Sunday morning, with spotty showers lingering in the
post-frontal airmass across central IL. A majority of the day looks
dry, but will keep slight chance PoPs in the forecast due to
channeled vorticity in the northwest flow moving across IL. Sunday
afternoon, precip chances will begin to increase for areas west of
Springfield to Shelbyville, as the front begins to make a faster
northward push west of Illinois.

The warm front will lift northward through our forecast area
starting Sunday night, reaching between I-74 and I-88 by 00z/7pm
Monday. Likely chances of rain and storms will accompany the front,
with increasing PoPs from SW to NE Sunday night and Monday. There
may be a break in the rain Monday morning, which could allow the
atmosphere to recharge in the warm sector over central IL. A few
storms may become strong in our western counties Monday
afternoon/evening west of a line from Rushville to Springfield to
Taylorville, where CAPE values could climb to 1000 J/kg depending on
if any sunshine breaks through for any amount of time. Dewpoints
will climb into the low 60s, providing added fuel for storms.

Central IL will remain in the warm sector Monday night and Tuesday,
when categorical PoPs were expanded in the forecast to cover
increasing instability params. Tuesday afternoon, MUCAPES of 2000
J/kg appear possible, with additional strong storms across the
board. Shear values look marginal, so mainly large hail with those
storms.

Another break in the storms looks possible later Tuesday night and
Wednesday, before a cold front and a line of storms push across
Illinois Wed night.

Cooler air will arrive behind that front, along with some drier air
for Thursday through Friday morning. A cold front projected to reach
central IL Friday afternoon will increase rain and storm chances
once again through Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016

A cold front from KSPI-KMTO as of 6 p.m. will continue pushing
slowly southward this evening with thunderstorms expected to
remain south of the boundary through the evening...although some
scattered showers will spread over the area. Overnight...isolated
to scattered thundestorms are possible again over the area as warm
advection aloft returns, interacting with the frontal boundary
aloft. Little precipitation is expected for Sunday as a narrow
high pressure ridge aloft approaches from the west. Generally VFR
conditions through the period, although isolated MVFR possible in
thunderstorms. Winds N-NE up to 12 kts this evening...decreasing
to under 5 kts by 05Z. Winds SE winds up to 10 kts returning after
17Z Sunday.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

 626 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

254 PM...THE COLD FRONT IS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME STATIONARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IL
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
CWA INTO THIS EVENING. CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA AND MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS.

WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BEFORE TURNING WESTERLY. WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...LOWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE LOWER
40S MOST AREAS AND POSSIBLY UPPER 30S IN THE USUAL COOL SPOTS.
MORE WIDESPREAD UPPER 30S WITH SOME MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING HOW LOW
TEMPS MAY DROP THERE...OPTED TO INCLUDE PATCHY FROST MENTION BUT
EVENING SHIFT MAY ABLE TO DROP THIS AS TRENDS EMERGE.

LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS NOW APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
LAKE BREEZE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OR PERHAPS ONSHORE WINDS RIGHT AT
THE LAKESHORE. IN ADDITION...IF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO...THEN HIGH TEMPS MIGHT END UP A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED UPPER 60S/NEAR 70. CMS

&&

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

254 PM...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
COULD BE A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO PRECIP SO FURTHER ADJUSTMENT
TO POPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BUT LIKELY SOUTH OF I-80 LOOKS ON
TRACK. ASSUMING THIS TIMING PANS OUT...COULD BE A LULL MIDDAY
MONDAY AND THEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS TIME PERIOD HAS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD/PROLONGED ACTIVITY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN
IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE AND QPF FORECASTS RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES. DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE MUCH FOCUS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE POPS. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PRECIP AND THEN DRYING OUT THURSDAY.

A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN ARRIVES FRIDAY AND WHILE THIS
MAY ALSO BRING SOME SHOWERS...MODELS SUGGEST A VERY COOL AIRMASS
FOR MID MAY WITH 850MB TEMPS POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW ZERO HERE
ACROSS NORTHERN IL. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST 5-10KT SUNDAY AND CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO
HOLD ANY POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZE AT BAY THROUGH 00Z. WINDS ARE NOT
TERRIBLY STRONG...SO CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LAKE BREEZE AND
WIND SHIFT TO NE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL
LAKE BREEZE SHIFT LOWER THAN NORMAL.

IZZI

&&

.MARINE...
146 PM CDT

LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WINDS EARLIER
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST SLIDES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WHILE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN...WAVE HEIGHTS CURRENTLY AROUND 7 FT ON THE
ILLINOIS NEARSHORE AND 8-9 FT ALONG THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WILL
TAKE A LITTLE MORE TIME TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. THE ILLINOIS
NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT QUICKER...POTENTIALLY BY
EARLY EVENING...THOUGH WILL KEEP BOTH AREAS IN THE ADVISORY FOR
NOW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT THEN TO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT
BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKE MONDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL RESPOND BY TURNING MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOWS EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE
ROCKIES.

KMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
     UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
257 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016

19z/2pm surface analysis shows cold front sagging southward toward
the I-74 corridor.  With dewpoints pooling in the upper 50s to
around 60 along/ahead of the boundary, latest LAPS data is
indicating SBCAPE values of 1000-1500J/kg.  0-6km bulk shear remains
rather weak, but is expected to increase to between 40 and 50kt
later this afternoon/evening as an upper trough digs into the Great
Lakes.  Given the moderate instability/shear parameters, the
potential exists for a few strong to severe thunderstorms from now
through about 02z/9pm.  HRRR has consistently been showing clusters
of thunderstorms developing across northern Missouri/southern Iowa
this afternoon, then tracking southeastward across mainly the
southern third of the KILX CWA.  Latest radar mosaic confirms the
HRRR, with thunderstorms currently around Quincy moving toward the
Winchester/Jacksonville areas.  Thunderstorms should track/develop
southeastward over the next few hours, impacting locations along and
south of a Rushville...to Lincoln...to Paris line through early
evening.  Main threats from the storms will be gusty winds and hail.
Once this initial wave of convection passes into the Ohio River
Valley, a lull in the precip is expected for the remainder of the
evening.  Overnight...a weak LLJ interacting with the stalled
frontal boundary will result in scattered thunderstorm development
across the entire area.  Have therefore focused highest PoPs across
the S/SE CWA late this afternoon into the early evening, then have
gone with chance PoPs across the board after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016

The cold front will stall out south of our forecast area in the Ohio
River Valley by Sunday morning, with spotty showers lingering in the
post-frontal airmass across central IL. A majority of the day looks
dry, but will keep slight chance PoPs in the forecast due to
channeled vorticity in the northwest flow moving across IL. Sunday
afternoon, precip chances will begin to increase for areas west of
Springfield to Shelbyville, as the front begins to make a faster
northward push west of Illinois.

The warm front will lift northward through our forecast area
starting Sunday night, reaching between I-74 and I-88 by 00z/7pm
Monday. Likely chances of rain and storms will accompany the front,
with increasing PoPs from SW to NE Sunday night and Monday. There
may be a break in the rain Monday morning, which could allow the
atmosphere to recharge in the warm sector over central IL. A few
storms may become strong in our western counties Monday
afternoon/evening west of a line from Rushville to Springfield to
Taylorville, where CAPE values could climb to 1000 J/kg depending on
if any sunshine breaks through for any amount of time. Dewpoints
will climb into the low 60s, providing added fuel for storms.

Central IL will remain in the warm sector Monday night and Tuesday,
when categorical PoPs were expanded in the forecast to cover
increasing instability params. Tuesday afternoon, MUCAPES of 2000
J/kg appear possible, with additional strong storms across the
board. Shear values look marginal, so mainly large hail with those
storms.

Another break in the storms looks possible later Tuesday night and
Wednesday, before a cold front and a line of storms push across
Illinois Wed night.

Cooler air will arrive behind that front, along with some drier air
for Thursday through Friday morning. A cold front projected to reach
central IL Friday afternoon will increase rain and storm chances
once again through Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016

Main aviation forecast concern will be convective chances this
afternoon/evening. 17z surface analysis shows cold front sinking
southward into north-central Illinois...with primary zone of
showers/isolated thunder currently along the I-74 corridor. Have
carried VCTS at KPIA/KBMI/KCMI through 22/23z accordingly. Later
in the day, the front will slip further south and convection
currently along the Iowa/Missouri border will track eastward into
portions of central Illinois. HRRR suggests this activity will
primarily impact KSPI and KDEC between 21z and 00z. After that, a
lull in the precip is expected through much of the evening before
warm-advection showers develop along the stalled frontal boundary
overnight. Forecast soundings show VFR ceilings through the entire
period. Winds will initially be from the northwest at 10-15 kt
this afternoon, then will veer to the northeast this evening,
before becoming light/variable overnight.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Barnes




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 1141 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CWA PROVIDING FULL SUNSHINE...LIGHT
WINDS AND PLEASANT SPRING TEMPERATURES. 2 PM READINGS WERE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE MID LEVELS HAS
CAUSED A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY FROM EASTERN MN
INTO CENTRAL IA AND NORTH CENTRAL MO. THIS HAS PRETTY MUCH STAYED
JUST WEST OF THE DVN CWA AS THE CLOUDS DRIFT SOUTHWARD. THERE HAS
EVEN BEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND IN FAR WESTERN
WI AND THE EAST METRO OF THE TWIN CITIES. THESE SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE STRONGER ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.

ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE
GREAT PLAINS...WITH SOME LOWER 90S IN ND AND MANITOBA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THERE WAS 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER
40S. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWERS TO REMAIN IN WISCONSIN WHERE THE BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL EXIST. BELIEVE THE HRRR IS OVERDOING THE SHOWERS IN THE DVN CWA
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES. WON`T MENTION IN THE GRIDS
BUT SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR.

FRIDAY...WARM DAY WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WIND...850 MB TEMPERATURES OF +15 TO 16C AND A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
SUPPORT LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SPOTS
MAY MANAGE TO SEE 85 DEGREES CONSIDERING WE SHOULD HAVE SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SATURDAY...EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN AND
POINTS TO THE E/NE. AS A RESULT...LIFT OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL
BE WEAK AND PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...POPS ARE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS LESS
THAN A TENTH FOR MOST AREAS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
SOUTHERN CWA BY THE MID TO LATE AFTN.

THUNDERSTORM DETAILS...THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN
THE DVN CWA ARE IN THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...TO
THE WEST OF GALESBURG...WHERE MUCAPES MAY EXCEED 1500 J/KG AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR IS NEAR 45 KTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SATURDAY/S COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS IT IS FORCED BY A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE
WEST-CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGHEST
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS 850MB WV TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.25 INCHES TO THE
ESE OF A COHERENT 850MB LOW MOVING INTO E NEBRASKA.

RAIN POTENTIAL...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CPC 3-7 DAY HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAS NOW SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE EAST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE PWATS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BECOME ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH...REMAINING BELOW 1 STANDARD DEVIATION...THE SYSTEM IS A SLOW
MOVER AND SHOWS A SOLID MOISTURE CONNECTION WITH THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...VIA 850 WV TRANSPORT VECTORS.

THE WPC 5-7 DAY QPF SUPPORTS CPC/S OUTLOOK...PAINTING A GENERAL 1 TO
3 INCHES ALONG WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS UP AND THE 850MB LOW
TRACKS...FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH IOWA AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...TOO EARLY TO FORECAST WITH MUCH DETAIL.
HOWEVER...SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND THE THREAT FOR RAIN TRANSLATES INTO NO BIG
WARM UPS WITH AVG HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED STORM. UTTECH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A VERY CLEAR CALM AND VFR NIGHT TO THE
REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A VFR DAY OF CLEAR/HIGH CLOUDS
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST FRIDAY AROUND 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...ERVIN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 626 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

WARM SECTOR REALLY STRUGGLING TO INITIATE CONVECTION AND DESPITE
WHAT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN INDICATING...PROBABILITIES OF A
LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG DRY LINE APPEAR TO BE DECREASING.
STILL THINK REASONABLE CHANCE FOR MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF WARM FRONT...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF POPS CONSIDERABLY SOUTH
OF I-70.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 452 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SHORT DURATION HIGH WIND
EVENT BEHIND THE DRY LINE IN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO.

STARTING TO SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AHEAD OF DRY
LINE AND EXPECT FOR THIS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THIS AREA NOT
NEARLY AS BACKED AS NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA...TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE LESS AND DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO ADJUST CURRENT
WATCHES. HAVE INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT AND TRIED TO BE A BIT
MORE DETERMINISTIC AS THIS NEXT AREA OF STORMS DEVELOP AS EXPECT A
FAIRLY SOLID LINE TO DEVELOP BY 00Z.

MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 45-50 KT WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR AS
DRYLINE BEGINS TO MOVE. BASED ON LAA AND NEARBY
OBSERVATIONS...WINDOW FOR SIGNIFICANT WINDS LIMITED AND PEAK
VALUES TOPPING OUT AROUND 48 KTS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN ANY
WIDESPREAD PERSISTENT HIGH WIND THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OUT
OF EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AS LIFT
OVERCOMES THE CAPPING MECHANISM THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL HOWEVER THERE IS AN
INCREASED FAVORABILITY FOR TORNADOES IN YUMA...KIT CARSON...AND
CHEYENNE CO COUNTIES THROUGH AROUND 01Z. DRIER AIR WILL BE PULLED
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY EXPECTED EAST OF HWY 27 AS A
WELL DEVELOPED DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUNDAYS THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD.  WIDE SPREAD LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE CLOSED LOW SUNDAY NIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE A DRY LINE WILL BE
NEAR THE HIGHWAY 27 CORRIDOR.  THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AS A RESULT.  FURTHER
WEST A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE DRY
LINE...BUT THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY AND ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
EAST OF THE DRY LINE SUNDAY EVENING.

OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA.  AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THE WRAP
AROUND CIRCULATION OF THE SURFACE LOW BETWEEN THE DRY LINE AND THE
COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE DEW POINTS TO INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  THIS MAY CAUSE ANY STORMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO BECOME STRONGER.

MONDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SEMI-STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
BORDER OF THE AREA. WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS STILL POOLED ALONG THE
FRONT...STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 10-15 KTS. DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST.

MONDAY NIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH IT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH.  FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAINFALL WITH IT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

FOR 00Z TAFS...INITIAL CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING TAF SITES. WHILE IT LOOKED LIKE A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION...HAS REALLY STRUGGLED
TO MAINTAIN ITSELF RESULTING IN VERY SPARSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IN AREA SOUTH OF WARM FRONT. WITH THESE TRENDS...THINKING GLD HAS
A LOWER PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND
DO NOT EXPECT A BIG IMPACT. MCK...STILL LOOKS LIKE WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...BUT OVERALL CERTAINTY TOO LOW TO REALLY
BRING DOWN FLIGHT CATEGORIES. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF FOG DEVELOP AT
MCK AS WELL...BUT VERY CONDITIONAL ON HOW THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVE AND
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JRM




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

 1200 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

Northwest flow aloft continues across central and eastern Kansas
this afternoon as we are in between a trough in the eastern Pacific
and another over the eastern U.S.. Surface high extended from Iowa
across eastern Kansas and into north Texas. The surface high will
move off slowly to the east through tonight with southerly return
flow developing from west to east after midnight. Another night of
clear skies are expected tonight with lows dropping down into the
upper 40s to lower 50s. Heights rise on Friday along with increasing
warm advection and we should mix up to 850 mb or so across the area.
Expect highs to reach the lower 80s with a few readings in the mid
80s in central Kansas. Winds increase through the day with
increasing pressure gradient. Should also mix down stronger winds
aloft which will yield wind gusts around 27 mph in north central
Kansas in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

Friday Night through Sunday...

Warm air advection pattern still ramps up Friday night but limited
moisture and instability aloft and dry layers below should keep any
precip limited to sprinkles at most. Frontal boundary still appears
to sink into the area Saturday afternoon but moisture values still
recovering and warm air aloft should make local thunderstorm
development difficult but small chances still justified in northern
areas in the afternoon. Have inched up high temps for central and
southern areas Saturday given the overnight WAA but with some high
cloud and uncertainty on boundary location confidence is not high on
specifics. More organized thunderstorm development is expected to
occur in northeast Colorado and western Nebraska Saturday afternoon
which could translate east over ridge and along the elevated front
make its way into the area per Corfidi vectors. Could see MCS type
precip linger into Sunday morning but area could easily be in
moderately unstable airmass in the afternoon still well downstream
of the upper low. If the old front or an outflow remains in the area
there will be some chance for thunderstorms in peak heating. Winds
aloft should be increasing somewhat but there will be some potential
for severe weather.

Sunday Night through Thursday...

Uncertainty remains high for evolution of thunderstorm activity
Sunday evening. Model to model consistency remains low with the
placement of the warm front. Current 12Z guidance would suggest the
warm front would position along the KS/NE border. The next question
is will surface-base convection occur along the warm front. 12Z
ECMWF/GFS forecast soundings along the KS/NE border valid at 00Z
Monday suggest very weak to perhaps a completely eroded EML. If this
solution were to come to fruition, all modes of severe weather would
become possible as moderate instability and sufficient low-
level/deep-layer shear will be in place. Good agreement amongst the
ECMWF and GFS with passage of an upper level shortwave trough Sunday
night into Monday morning. This solution suggests convection along
the dryline in central/southern KS should congeal into line of
elevated convection late Sunday evening and progress eastward across
the area. Severe weather would be possible across the area as MUCAPE
of 1500-2000 J/KG and deep-layer shear near 40-50 knots would
support large hail and damaging wind gusts. Zonal to perhaps
northwest flow returns for the middle of week. Precipitation chances
increase Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as an embedded trough
within the northern stream sweeps across the central plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR conditions through the TAF with light winds tonight,
occasional gusts up to 20 kts Friday afternoon, and then decreased
gusts after sunset.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Baerg/65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu May 5 2016

Temperatures were rising faster than the forecast T curve early
this morning, and a change to the Experimental HRRR appears to
have captures the temperature forecast a little better in the
midday. It may be a couple of degrees overdone as it is warmer
than all the other guidance/blends, however with it being early
May now the warming can last later in the day. The forecast high
was generally bumped about 3 degrees over the area. The surface
high will continue to give way to gradual troughing over eastern
Colorado and the extreme western counties overnight. Much more
breezy conditions to  marginally windy conditions can be expected
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu May 5 2016

Continued focus exists on the weekend for severe weather
potential. Saturday and Sunday present somewhat different pattern
recognition setups with marginal shear on Saturday, increasing by
Sunday as the upper jet advances into the central High Plains.
CAPES appear moderate on Saturday, and a few hail and wind
producing severe storms could develop near the dryline in this
marginal shear environment. The ECMWF is the model that pushes the
dryline almost out of our forecast area on Sunday afternoon
before convection initiation, while the GFS was far more emphatic
with convection occurring farther west. Many characteristics of
the mesoscale are as of yet unknown, however thunderstorms are
probable this weekend. The best chance for the most widespread
severe and especially tornadic threat would be more likely farther
north where the models are in agreement with placement of the warm
front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri May 6 2016

VFR expected through TAF pd. LLWS expected overnight and then again
tomorrow overnight. Southerly winds will increase 20-30 kt beginning
around 18Z as lee trough deepens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  86  59  84 /   0   0  10  30
GCK  54  88  57  83 /   0  10  10  30
EHA  51  85  55  82 /   0  10  10  20
LBL  53  87  57  85 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  52  87  60  82 /   0  10  10  50
P28  54  86  60  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Sugden




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 1016 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

MADE A NUMBER OF ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH REGARDS TO
ONGOING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES...WEATHER GRIDS...AND QPF GRIDS WERE ALL UPDATED TO
BETTER REFLECT THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORM AS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS BECOME SUBSEVERE OVER THE PAST
30 MINUTES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE STORMS FOR SIGNS OF
REINTENSIFICATION...BUT AT THIS TIME THE STORMS ARE LOOKING NON
THREATENING. THESE STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BY
12Z SUNDAY. THE UPDATED FORECAST HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GRADUALLY MEANDERING ACROSS THE HUDSON AND
JAMES BAY REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PASS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION
TO END THE WEEKEND...BEFORE STARTING TO RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WHERE
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT...BUT SHOULD PEAK THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WHEN UPPER FORCING INCREASES.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS WHAT BECOMES OF
THE CONVECTION APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WHAT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION CONTINUES...BUT RATHER DEEP
MIXING IS OFFSETTING THIS SOMEWHAT AS WELL. SBCAPES AND MUCAPES
ARE GENERALLY NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION
THOUGH WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND MOIST ADVECTION MAY REACH 1000
J/KG BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT WIND FIELDS
ALOFT LEADS TO A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE WOULD POINT TOWARD
THE CONVECTION APPROACHING THE AREA AFFECTING THE CWA IN A COUPLE
OF TIER OF COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING. POPS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWA AS A RESULT FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...LOCATIONS
NEAR THE TN BORDER WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. AS
ALREADY NOTED THE HIGHEST POPS...LIKELY...WERE USED IN MOST
LOCATIONS FOR THIS EVENING OR THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
IN MOST LOCATIONS. VALLEY FOG COULD BECOME A CONCERN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT PENDING THE DEGREE OF CLEARING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.

A NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BOUNDARY STARTING TO PARK ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF I 64 TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE TN
BORDER. LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
SINCE YESTERDAY. AT THIS POINT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE...WITH A TYPICAL DECLINE WITH PASSING TIME. FOR DETAILS...A
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
AS THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIP MAINLY NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS LEAVES JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. A LARGE BUT WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH ITS PASSING COINCIDING WITH AN INCREASED FLOW OFF OF
THE GULF. THIS WILL PRESENT AN INCREASE IN POP FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A CORRESPONDING DROP IN POP. AFTER THIS...A LARGE UPPER
LOW ROLLING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW WILL HAVE A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. THE TROUGH AND FRONT SHOULD
APPROACH ON THURSDAY AND MOVE PAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
REPRESENTS ANOTHER PEAK IN POP. BEHIND THIS...MODELS SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST BRING US A DRIER AIR MASS
ON FRIDAY. YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST AND DEEPENS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRINGS BACK ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES...EXCEPT
FOR TIMES WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER AN AIRPORT.
LOZ AND SME WILL SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THROUGH ABOUT 1Z
THIS EVENING. ONCE THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA...A SECOND LARGER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SECOND ROUND OF RAIN
IS ON TRACK TO AFFECT JKL...LOZ...AND SME BETWEEN 3 AND 6Z
TONIGHT. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. CONDITIONS AT A GIVE AIRPORT DURING A STORM MAY VARY
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE WIND AND
RAINFALL THAT OCCUR. SYM AND SJS MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
SME...LOZ...AND JKL WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING ROUGH
WEATHER BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE UPSTREAM CLUSTER OF
STORMS. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA BY 12 TO 15Z ON SUNDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 733 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GRADUALLY MEANDERING ACROSS THE HUDSON AND
JAMES BAY REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PASS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION
TO END THE WEEKEND...BEFORE STARTING TO RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WHERE
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT...BUT SHOULD PEAK THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WHEN UPPER FORCING INCREASES.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS WHAT BECOMES OF
THE CONVECTION APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WHAT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION CONTINUES...BUT RATHER DEEP
MIXING IS OFFSETTING THIS SOMEWHAT AS WELL. SBCAPES AND MUCAPES
ARE GENERALLY NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION
THOUGH WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND MOIST ADVECTION MAY REACH 1000
J/KG BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT WIND FIELDS
ALOFT LEADS TO A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE WOULD POINT TOWARD
THE CONVECTION APPROACHING THE AREA AFFECTING THE CWA IN A COUPLE
OF TIER OF COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING. POPS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWA AS A RESULT FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...LOCATIONS
NEAR THE TN BORDER WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. AS
ALREADY NOTED THE HIGHEST POPS...LIKELY...WERE USED IN MOST
LOCATIONS FOR THIS EVENING OR THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
IN MOST LOCATIONS. VALLEY FOG COULD BECOME A CONCERN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT PENDING THE DEGREE OF CLEARING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.

A NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BOUNDARY STARTING TO PARK ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF I 64 TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE TN
BORDER. LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
SINCE YESTERDAY. AT THIS POINT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE...WITH A TYPICAL DECLINE WITH PASSING TIME. FOR DETAILS...A
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
AS THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIP MAINLY NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS LEAVES JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. A LARGE BUT WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH ITS PASSING COINCIDING WITH AN INCREASED FLOW OFF OF
THE GULF. THIS WILL PRESENT AN INCREASE IN POP FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A CORRESPONDING DROP IN POP. AFTER THIS...A LARGE UPPER
LOW ROLLING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW WILL HAVE A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. THE TROUGH AND FRONT SHOULD
APPROACH ON THURSDAY AND MOVE PAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
REPRESENTS ANOTHER PEAK IN POP. BEHIND THIS...MODELS SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST BRING US A DRIER AIR MASS
ON FRIDAY. YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST AND DEEPENS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRINGS BACK ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES...EXCEPT
FOR TIMES WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER AN AIRPORT.
LOZ AND SME WILL SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THROUGH ABOUT 1Z
THIS EVENING. ONCE THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA...A SECOND LARGER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SECOND ROUND OF RAIN
IS ON TRACK TO AFFECT JKL...LOZ...AND SME BETWEEN 3 AND 6Z
TONIGHT. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. CONDITIONS AT A GIVE AIRPORT DURING A STORM MAY VARY
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE WIND AND
RAINFALL THAT OCCUR. SYM AND SJS MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
SME...LOZ...AND JKL WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING ROUGH
WEATHER BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE UPSTREAM CLUSTER OF
STORMS. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA BY 12 TO 15Z ON SUNDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 212 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

POPS FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WERE
INCREASED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

A COUPLE OF QUICK UPDATES HAVE BEEN DONE TO FINE TUNE THE HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS. POPS WERE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF A SANDY HOOK TO
JACKSON TO HARLAN LINE FOR BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE...CU DEVELOPMENT AND TRENDS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE BIG SANDY REGION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS FOUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY FROM THAT EASTERN LOW. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS...LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND CLOSER TO THE VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA BORDER. IN THE CLEARING TO THE WEST OF THE BORDER
AREAS...PATCHY FOG IS NOTED IN THE SOME OF THE OBSERVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS NOT FAR AWAY...WHILE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A CONUS OMEGA BLOCK
SHIFTING EAST AND OPENING UP DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A DEEP
CLOSED LOW DESCENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
MORNING WILL PIVOT TO THE NORTHEAST BY EVENING BEFORE BEING PICKED
UP BY THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AND DEPARTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST SATURDAY EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...RISING HEIGHTS AND RIDGING
WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARD KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW DESCENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A MINOR WAVE WILL
SQUEEZE BY EASTERN KENTUCKY TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL BLEND WITH A STRONG LEAN
TOWARD THE HRRR EARLY ON AND THE NAM12 THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILDER DAY THAN YESTERDAY AS SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNS AND THE COLD AIR DEPARTS TO THE EAST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT
TO SET UP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG
AROUND...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THAT BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE SOUTH TOWARD
EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER SATURDAY. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...OUR AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A QUICK MOVING SFC LOW AND AS A
RESULT COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP WITH FAVORABLE PARAMETERS
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BUILDING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SPECIFICALLY...CAPE WILL BE MODERATE WITH LOW
LIS AND VEERING/INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
FURTHER IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT.

USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST
ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
AND SOME TERRAIN DIFFERENCES FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ADJUST
POPS TO BE A BIT ABOVE THE POPULATION SCHEME...IN THE EAST THROUGH
TODAY AND ALSO FOR THE STRONG/SEVERE STORM CONCERNS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA REGION WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST INTO THE COMING WEEK. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SWING A
FEW SHORTWAVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. MEANWHILE...AS A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST AS WELL WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FEATURE OPENS AND EJECTS EAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK. FOLLOWING THIS...TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS ANOTHER
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS WITH A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER
THE OH VALLEY SHIFTING. OVERALL...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THOUGH
THE GFS IS A BIT MORE DRIER THAN THE EURO...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
THE EXTENDED SEEMS QUITE WET AND ACTIVE. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO
CONFIRMED BY THE ALL MODEL BLEND AS WELL KEEPING THE CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF THE EXTENDED.

NEAR THE SURFACE HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SETS UP A
WARM FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO
THE OH VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY BECOMES A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE EURO MIGHT
SUGGEST AN MCS SET UP FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
SEEM SUBSTANTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AT LEAST EARLY IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOCUSING ON MAX
HEATING. STRONG CAPPING HEADING INTO THE DAY MONDAY WOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION A BIT MORE AS THE MENTIONED BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. STILL
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
TUESDAY...THE SYSTEM OUT WEST SHIFTS EAST WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. STRONG CONVECTION SEEMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP GOOD
INSTABILITY IN PLACE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DISTURBANCE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. MODELS HIGHLIGHT AN ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

CU AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF JKL AND
NEAR SJS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW. VCSH
HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR SJS AND JKL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BRIEF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE A DIRECT HIT FROM A
SHOWER. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS AT NEAR 10KT WITH SOME GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 20KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET AT THE TAF SITES WITH
CU OR STRATOCU IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS SHOULD THEN SLACKEN...ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD BECOME GUSTY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AROUND 15Z...MAINLY
AT SYM...LOZ...AND SME. VALLEY FOG SHOULD AGAIN FORM AND MAY
LIMIT VIS TO IFR RANGE BETWEEN 4Z AND 13Z IN SOME AREAS...BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 8Z AND CIGS DOWN NEAR 5KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH A STRAY SHOWER. FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH...VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 1141 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

A COUPLE OF QUICK UPDATES HAVE BEEN DONE TO FINE TUNE THE HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS. POPS WERE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF A SANDY HOOK TO
JACKSON TO HARLAN LINE FOR BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE...CU DEVELOPMENT AND TRENDS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE BIG SANDY REGION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS FOUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY FROM THAT EASTERN LOW. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS...LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND CLOSER TO THE VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA BORDER. IN THE CLEARING TO THE WEST OF THE BORDER
AREAS...PATCHY FOG IS NOTED IN THE SOME OF THE OBSERVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS NOT FAR AWAY...WHILE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A CONUS OMEGA BLOCK
SHIFTING EAST AND OPENING UP DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A DEEP
CLOSED LOW DESCENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
MORNING WILL PIVOT TO THE NORTHEAST BY EVENING BEFORE BEING PICKED
UP BY THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AND DEPARTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST SATURDAY EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...RISING HEIGHTS AND RIDGING
WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARD KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW DESCENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A MINOR WAVE WILL
SQUEEZE BY EASTERN KENTUCKY TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL BLEND WITH A STRONG LEAN
TOWARD THE HRRR EARLY ON AND THE NAM12 THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILDER DAY THAN YESTERDAY AS SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNS AND THE COLD AIR DEPARTS TO THE EAST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT
TO SET UP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG
AROUND...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THAT BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE SOUTH TOWARD
EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER SATURDAY. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...OUR AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A QUICK MOVING SFC LOW AND AS A
RESULT COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP WITH FAVORABLE PARAMETERS
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BUILDING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SPECIFICALLY...CAPE WILL BE MODERATE WITH LOW
LIS AND VEERING/INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
FURTHER IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT.

USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST
ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
AND SOME TERRAIN DIFFERENCES FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ADJUST
POPS TO BE A BIT ABOVE THE POPULATION SCHEME...IN THE EAST THROUGH
TODAY AND ALSO FOR THE STRONG/SEVERE STORM CONCERNS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA REGION WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST INTO THE COMING WEEK. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SWING A
FEW SHORTWAVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. MEANWHILE...AS A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST AS WELL WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FEATURE OPENS AND EJECTS EAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK. FOLLOWING THIS...TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS ANOTHER
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS WITH A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER
THE OH VALLEY SHIFTING. OVERALL...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THOUGH
THE GFS IS A BIT MORE DRIER THAN THE EURO...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
THE EXTENDED SEEMS QUITE WET AND ACTIVE. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO
CONFIRMED BY THE ALL MODEL BLEND AS WELL KEEPING THE CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF THE EXTENDED.

NEAR THE SURFACE HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SETS UP A
WARM FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO
THE OH VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY BECOMES A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE EURO MIGHT
SUGGEST AN MCS SET UP FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
SEEM SUBSTANTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AT LEAST EARLY IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOCUSING ON MAX
HEATING. STRONG CAPPING HEADING INTO THE DAY MONDAY WOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION A BIT MORE AS THE MENTIONED BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. STILL
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
TUESDAY...THE SYSTEM OUT WEST SHIFTS EAST WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. STRONG CONVECTION SEEMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP GOOD
INSTABILITY IN PLACE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DISTURBANCE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. MODELS HIGHLIGHT AN ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE WORST OF THE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS SCATTERED SHOWERS DRIFT JUST WEST OF SOUTH THROUGH THE
FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THESE LOCATIONS...PRIMARILY
SJS...WILL SEE THE BEST SHOT AT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH VIS AND
CIGS WITH ANY SHOWER. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT A TAF SITE
OR TWO WEST OF THE SHOWERS...BUT FOR THE MOST THIS WILL DISSIPATE
UPON SUNRISE ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AT BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 700 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS FOUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY FROM THAT EASTERN LOW. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS...LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND CLOSER TO THE VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA BORDER. IN THE CLEARING TO THE WEST OF THE BORDER
AREAS...PATCHY FOG IS NOTED IN THE SOME OF THE OBSERVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS NOT FAR AWAY...WHILE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A CONUS OMEGA BLOCK
SHIFTING EAST AND OPENING UP DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A DEEP
CLOSED LOW DESCENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
MORNING WILL PIVOT TO THE NORTHEAST BY EVENING BEFORE BEING PICKED
UP BY THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AND DEPARTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST SATURDAY EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...RISING HEIGHTS AND RIDGING
WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARD KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW DESCENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A MINOR WAVE WILL
SQUEEZE BY EASTERN KENTUCKY TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL BLEND WITH A STRONG LEAN
TOWARD THE HRRR EARLY ON AND THE NAM12 THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILDER DAY THAN YESTERDAY AS SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNS AND THE COLD AIR DEPARTS TO THE EAST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT
TO SET UP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG
AROUND...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THAT BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE SOUTH TOWARD
EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER SATURDAY. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...OUR AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A QUICK MOVING SFC LOW AND AS A
RESULT COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP WITH FAVORABLE PARAMETERS
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BUILDING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SPECIFICALLY...CAPE WILL BE MODERATE WITH LOW
LIS AND VEERING/INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
FURTHER IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT.

USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST
ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
AND SOME TERRAIN DIFFERENCES FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ADJUST
POPS TO BE A BIT ABOVE THE POPULATION SCHEME...IN THE EAST THROUGH
TODAY AND ALSO FOR THE STRONG/SEVERE STORM CONCERNS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA REGION WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST INTO THE COMING WEEK. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SWING A
FEW SHORTWAVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. MEANWHILE...AS A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST AS WELL WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FEATURE OPENS AND EJECTS EAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK. FOLLOWING THIS...TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS ANOTHER
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS WITH A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER
THE OH VALLEY SHIFTING. OVERALL...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THOUGH
THE GFS IS A BIT MORE DRIER THAN THE EURO...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
THE EXTENDED SEEMS QUITE WET AND ACTIVE. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO
CONFIRMED BY THE ALL MODEL BLEND AS WELL KEEPING THE CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF THE EXTENDED.

NEAR THE SURFACE HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SETS UP A
WARM FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO
THE OH VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY BECOMES A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE EURO MIGHT
SUGGEST AN MCS SET UP FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
SEEM SUBSTANTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AT LEAST EARLY IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOCUSING ON MAX
HEATING. STRONG CAPPING HEADING INTO THE DAY MONDAY WOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION A BIT MORE AS THE MENTIONED BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. STILL
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
TUESDAY...THE SYSTEM OUT WEST SHIFTS EAST WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. STRONG CONVECTION SEEMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP GOOD
INSTABILITY IN PLACE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DISTURBANCE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. MODELS HIGHLIGHT AN ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE WORST OF THE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS SCATTERED SHOWERS DRIFT JUST WEST OF SOUTH THROUGH THE
FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THESE LOCATIONS...PRIMARILY
SJS...WILL SEE THE BEST SHOT AT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH VIS AND
CIGS WITH ANY SHOWER. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT A TAF SITE
OR TWO WEST OF THE SHOWERS...BUT FOR THE MOST THIS WILL DISSIPATE
UPON SUNRISE ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AT BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 405 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS FOUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY FROM THAT EASTERN LOW. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS...LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND CLOSER TO THE VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA BORDER. IN THE CLEARING TO THE WEST OF THE BORDER
AREAS...PATCHY FOG IS NOTED IN THE SOME OF THE OBSERVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS NOT FAR AWAY...WHILE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A CONUS OMEGA BLOCK
SHIFTING EAST AND OPENING UP DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A DEEP
CLOSED LOW DESCENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
MORNING WILL PIVOT TO THE NORTHEAST BY EVENING BEFORE BEING PICKED
UP BY THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AND DEPARTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST SATURDAY EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...RISING HEIGHTS AND RIDGING
WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARD KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW DESCENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A MINOR WAVE WILL
SQUEEZE BY EASTERN KENTUCKY TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL BLEND WITH A STRONG LEAN
TOWARD THE HRRR EARLY ON AND THE NAM12 THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILDER DAY THAN YESTERDAY AS SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNS AND THE COLD AIR DEPARTS TO THE EAST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT
TO SET UP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG
AROUND...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THAT BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE SOUTH TOWARD
EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER SATURDAY. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...OUR AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A QUICK MOVING SFC LOW AND AS A
RESULT COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP WITH FAVORABLE PARAMETERS
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BUILDING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SPECIFICALLY...CAPE WILL BE MODERATE WITH LOW
LIS AND VEERING/INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
FURTHER IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT.

USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST
ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
AND SOME TERRAIN DIFFERENCES FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ADJUST
POPS TO BE A BIT ABOVE THE POPULATION SCHEME...IN THE EAST THROUGH
TODAY AND ALSO FOR THE STRONG/SEVERE STORM CONCERNS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA REGION WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST INTO THE COMING WEEK. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SWING A
FEW SHORTWAVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. MEANWHILE...AS A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST AS WELL WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FEATURE OPENS AND EJECTS EAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK. FOLLOWING THIS...TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS ANOTHER
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS WITH A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER
THE OH VALLEY SHIFTING. OVERALL...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THOUGH
THE GFS IS A BIT MORE DRIER THAN THE EURO...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
THE EXTENDED SEEMS QUITE WET AND ACTIVE. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO
CONFIRMED BY THE ALL MODEL BLEND AS WELL KEEPING THE CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF THE EXTENDED.

NEAR THE SURFACE HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SETS UP A
WARM FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO
THE OH VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY BECOMES A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE EURO MIGHT
SUGGEST AN MCS SET UP FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
SEEM SUBSTANTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AT LEAST EARLY IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOCUSING ON MAX
HEATING. STRONG CAPPING HEADING INTO THE DAY MONDAY WOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION A BIT MORE AS THE MENTIONED BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. STILL
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
TUESDAY...THE SYSTEM OUT WEST SHIFTS EAST WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. STRONG CONVECTION SEEMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP GOOD
INSTABILITY IN PLACE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DISTURBANCE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. MODELS HIGHLIGHT AN ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE WORST OF THE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS DRIFT JUST WEST OF SOUTH THROUGH
THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THESE LOCATIONS...PRIMARILY
SJS...WILL SEE THE BEST SHOT AT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH VIS AND
CIGS WITH ANY SHOWER. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT A TAF SITE
OR TWO WEST OF THE AREA OF SHOWERS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
EVENING VFR WILL HOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS INFLUENCE KNOWN.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 135 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE GRIDS THROUGH DAYBREAK PER
THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. ALSO ADDED A
TOUCH OF PATCHY FOG TO THE WX GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO EXPERIENCE OVERNIGHT WILL NOT SPREAD QUITE AS FAR WESTWARD...OR
BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD...AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THEREFORE...THE
HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO
REFLECT THESE LATEST TRENDS. AN UPDATED ZONE FORECAST TEXT
PRODUCT HAS BEEN ISSUED AS WELL. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

WV SAT AND HRRR HAS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW HAS
PROGRESSED SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN NC AND NW SC. OVERALL THE MESO
MODELS AND MORE SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
PROGRESSION. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO
THE STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AS WE HAVE SEEN BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. THESE LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH THE ALREADY
REASONABLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OVERALL COVERAGE HAS BEEN
SCATTERED WITH BETTER COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. RIGHT NOW
MODELS DO WANT TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN THE FAR EAST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER BIGGEST QUESTION WOULD BE HOW MUCH
COVERAGE DO WE SEE. RIGHT NOW OPTED TO LOWER POPS GIVEN SOME OF
THE UNCERTAINTY. THIS UNCERTAINTY COMES WHEN LOOKING UPSTREAM
RADAR COVERAGE IS QUITE LOW COMPARED TO WHAT MAY HAVE BEEN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND CAMS ARE NOT HITTING IT TOO HARD EITHER.
THE OTHER QUESTION WOULD BE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER DO WE SEE
TONIGHT...RIGHT NOW KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGHER IN THE EAST GIVEN THE
BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE. ALSO COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPS AND
FOG POTENTIAL. RIGHT NOW WILL ADD SOME PATCHY DEEPER VALLEY FOG
AND JUST MINOR TEMP SPLIT GIVEN THE CLOUD UNCERTAINTY.

THIS UPPER LOW IS FAIRLY SLOW TO MOVE EAST...AS A OMEGA BLOCK
PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS. THEREFORE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF. THAT SAID THERE WAS A NEED FOR SHOWERS IN THE FAR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FOR FRIDAY GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESS OF VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW AND CONTINUED PVA/SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTH. NOW FRIDAY NIGHT
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS UPPER LOW/OMEGA BLOCK BREAK DOWN
AND PROGRESS EAST. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OR WAVE MAY
BRING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE MOST SPOTS SHOULD DRY OUT AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN
DEAMPLIFYING OVER THE WEEKEND AND EVOLVING TO MORE OR LESS A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MEANDERING OF
THE APPALACHIANS AND THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
FROM THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAY REGION INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
THEN INTO THE CANADIAN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
APPALACHIAN REGION FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BOUNDARY STALLING OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE OHIO OR
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ON ISENTROPIC LIFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON SATURDAY. A
LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY...WITH MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR TO LESSEN ON
SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.

AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MEANWHILE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
LOW MEANDERING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS INTO THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS. IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEVELOPING LOW AND HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THE
STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT ON MONDAY. THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TRACK FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AT MIDWEEK AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. MODEL AGREEMENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL IN THESE DETAILS DIMINISHES GREATLY BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ALSO CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
MODEL BLEND AND CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE FOR ANOTHER PEAK IN
CONVECTION CHANCES FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY INTO THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME A CONCERN
IN LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR TO START
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER ANTICIPATED. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE WORST OF THE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS DRIFT JUST WEST OF SOUTH THROUGH
THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THESE LOCATIONS...PRIMARILY
SJS...WILL SEE THE BEST SHOT AT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH VIS AND
CIGS WITH ANY SHOWER. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT A TAF SITE
OR TWO WEST OF THE AREA OF SHOWERS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
EVENING VFR WILL HOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS INFLUENCE KNOWN.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 905 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATER MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
835 PM UPDATE: AN EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED UPDATE WAS WARRANTED
BASED ON THE CONTINUED INCREASED CVRG OF SHWRS ACROSS DOWNEAST AND
E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. HRRR SIMULATED RADAR REF HAS ONLY CAUGHT
UP WITH REALITY OVR THE LAST HR OR TWO. INTERESTING...THE ONLY
MODEL THAT DID FAIRLY WELL WITH THIS AREA OF SHWRS TNGT WELL
AHEAD OF TOMORROW`S LATE DAY COLD FRONT WAS THE 12Z CANGEM...ALBEIT
IT WAS A TAD SLOW AND A LITTLE FURTHER E WITH ITS BEST QPF XTNDNG
FROM WASHINGTON COUNTY INTO WRN NB PROV. FCST 6HRLY QPF WAS BEEFED
UP BOTH FOR THE PD ENDING AT 8PM AND FOR THE UPCOMING 8PM-2AM PD.
MOST OF THESE OF THESE SHWRS SHOULD EXIT ENE OF THE FA BY 3-4AM OR
SO. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHGS WERE MADE TO FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU
THE OVRNGT TO UNCHGD FCST LOWS AT 5 AM SUN BASED ON OBSVD TEMPS AT
8 PM.

ORGNL DISC: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
COULD ALSO HAVE PATCHY FOG DOWNEAST LATER TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH AN AREA OF RAIN IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT...WITH THE MOST EXTENSIVE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH RAIN ENDING IN THE EVENING FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST. FURTHER
NORTH...THE SITUATION IS MORE COMPLICATED AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THEN A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW MEANDERS
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THESE
DEVELOPMENTS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. THE POST-
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY TOTAL A QUARTER INCH
OVERNIGHT TOWARDS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK...BUT COULD HIT AS MUCH AS A
HALF INCH IN NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE FRONT...GOING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S LATER IN THE NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT...RAIN MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW LATER IN THE NIGHT
FOR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. WILL GO WITH UP TO INCH IN NW
AROOSTOOK. AM ANTICIPATING MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OVER BEFORE
THE CHANGEOVER. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER IN THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY.
WITH STRONG MIXING TO H850 OR HIGHER ON MONDAY...GUSTS MAY REACH
OVER 45 MPH AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY WHILE MID TO
UPPER 50S ARE FORECAST TOWARDS BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH. THESE
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE MORE DOWNSLOPE-INDUCED SUNSHINE ON MONDAY
WHILE NORTHERN ZONES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST LATER SUNDAY...FIRE WEATHER
COULD BE A CONCERN IN SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
WINDS AND LOW RH.

WINDS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NORTH UNDER A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW LINGERING EVENING
SHOWERS IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP
TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON
TUESDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOW
TO MID 60S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WITH THE HELP OF THE OFFSHORE
WIND. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH...BUT
WINDS WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.
AGAIN...THE BANGOR AND DOWNEAST REGION WILL HAVE LOW RH AND WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WE GO INTO THE MIDDLE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, THE CHILLY TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE MOVING AWAY ALLOWING FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND BRING A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY
EVENING WILL REMAIN COOL AND BREEZY WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVER
THE NORTH AND A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA MOVES AWAY. THIS WILL BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY
MILD DAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME PATCHY CLOUDS
ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, A PARTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY WILL BE
LIKELY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMER DAY ON FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PUSHES IN. AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO A LARGE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SOME CLOUDS
MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS LOOKS MILD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH SO MILD WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, EVEN WITH ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS EARLY TONIGHT...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST EARLY
TONIGHT...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR IN RAIN FOR BGR AND BHB EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING AND THEN QUICKLY BECOMING VFR LATER IN THE EVENING. FOR
THESE SOUTHERN SITES...IT WILL BE VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. NORTH OF HUL...EXPECT IFR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE IFR WILL LIFT
TO VFR FOR MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
OF PQI. THESE CEILINGS MAY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY MONDAY FROM THE WEST. GUSTS MAY REACH OVER 40
KTS. THIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY...THOUGH CONDITIONS
COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND PATCHY FOG SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MAY TRANSITION TO AN
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MONDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

 939 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY
WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...REMAINING
NEARBY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS EVENING...UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA...OVER JAMES BAY...AND OVER THE GREAT BASIN. POCKETS OF
ACTIVE WX IN BETWEEN AS EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE FLOW.
SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY.

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT THE POP
FORECAST. SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS FALLING FROM HIGHER CLOUD BASES
ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE PA BORDER. WHILE SOME OTHER
SPRINKLES DOT THE REGION...NEXT MAIN FOCUS IS CLUSTER OF STORMS
OVER NE OHIO RIDING INSTBY GRADIENT. 23Z/00Z RUNS OF THE HRRR
BARREL THIS EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT...WHILE RAP HAS IT
FADING. THINK THE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF HRRR MAY BE
OVERDONE...BUT MORE THAN ONE MODEL SHOWS THE PATCH OF ELEVATED
INSTBY CROSSING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE
A FEELING THIS COULD SURVIVE IN SOME FORM. JUST SENT FORECAST
UPDATE TO INCLUDE INCREASED POPS (STILL CHANCE/SCT) AND ISOLD
THUNDER INTO THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING AND TO EXTEND POPS
FURTHER IN TIME. FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS OF DAYBREAK. WILL PERUSE TEMPS A LITTLE MORE
CLOSELY...BUT THE UPPER 40S-MID 50S CURRENTLY IN GRIDS SHOULDN/T
BE TOO FAR OFF.

NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY (SOME GUSTS TO 30
MPH POSSIBLE) AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH SUNSHINE ARE ...FINALLY...
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE U60S/L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ENJOY THE BREAK IN CLOUDS AND RAIN SUNDAY BECAUSE THEY
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL RETURN AS A WARM FRONT AND STAY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION INTO MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT MONDAY. AS OF NOW THE
SFC WARM FRONT WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH SO COOLER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THEN
STALL OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PIVOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT THIS FRONT WILL
STALL AS WELL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THOUGH THE WEEK WON`T BE AN ENTIRE WASH OUT...THERE WILL BE REPEATED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VIRTUALLY EVERYDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT IS TOUGH TO DISCERN ANY SPECIFIC PERIODS
OF HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN OR POTENTIALLY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN DOES LOOK TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY WARM AND UNSTABLE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH POSSIBLE SPRINKLES OR VIRGA FROM
HIGHER CLOUD BASES. WILL KEEP EYE ON CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NE OHIO.
LATEST HRRR RUNS HOLD THESE STORMS TOGETHER ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW SO FAR TO MENTION ANY PRECIP
IN TAF BUT WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NW BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. NW WINDS 10-15KTS
G 20-25KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-VFR PSBL IN ANY SHWRS/TSTMS TUE-WED. WINDS UNCERTAIN
DEPENDING ON POSITION OF WARM FRONT...BUT GENERALLY SELY AROUND 10
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BECOME SRLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. MULTIPLE HI-RES MODELS INDICATE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. A SUBTLE INVERSION LIMITS CONFIDENCE
SOMEWHAT...BUT WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE SCA TO START AT
MIDNIGHT FOR THE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND. WINDS BECOME NW AND
INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS
20-30 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS RELAX SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH WITH A WARM FRONT
STALLED OVER THE WATERS TO PRECLUDE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS UNTIL MID-WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

CURRENT ANOMALIES HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY...TO BELOW ONE FOOT IN MANY
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER THIS IS STILL ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONCERNS FOR
THE CURRENT DC/ALEXANDRIA HIGH TIDES...AS WELL AS THE
ASTRONOMICALLYHIGHER TIDES SUNDAY MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH THIS CYCLE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
BALTIMORE AND HARFORD COUNTIES. SOLOMONS MAY BE A THRESHOLD EVENT
BUT HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR THIS...AND ANNAPOLIS...STRAITS
POINT...AND DC SHOULD BE WELL INTO MINOR CATEGORY. BALTIMORE WILL
REQUIRE ANOMALIES TO RECOVER AND GIVEN LATE MORNING TIMING...HAVE
HELD OFF FOR NOW.

ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN DROPPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL NORMALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE HAVE BEEN STUCK IN A RAINY PATTERN FOR QUITE A WHILE NOW. AS
OF MAY 6TH...DCA AND BWI HAVE HAD 10 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WHERE RAIN
WAS REPORTED (AT LEAST A TRACE)...IAD HAS HAD 11. THE RECORD
LONGEST STRETCH OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH RAINFALL OBSERVED IS 17
AT DCA AND BWI (SET IN LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL OF 1935) AND 13 AT
IAD (SET IN EARLY MAY OF 1989). WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IT IS NOT OUTSIDE THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY THAT THESE RECORDS COULD BE APPROACHED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ018.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ017.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535>537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...ADS/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/HAS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS
CLIMATE...DFH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 249 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A NNW FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATING THE WRN GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE E AND AN
UPR RDG IN CENTRAL NAMERICA. A SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM THE UPR
MIDWEST INTO WRN QUEBEC AS WELL AS DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB
RAOB IS BRINGING A MOSUNNY DAY TO UPR MI...BUT MORE MAINLY MID/HI
CLDS RELATED TO WAA IN THE SW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RDG ARE
PRESENT FM WRN LK SUP INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS
UNDER THESE CLDS OVER MN WHERE MID LVL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN
STEEPER...BUT ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN WAA AND RELATIVELY DRY
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS ARE LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF THIS PCPN...WITH
A DIMINISHING TREND IN RECENT HRS.

TNGT...AS SFC HI PRES RDG CONTINUES TO SLIDE SEWD...SW FLOW/WAA ARE
PROGGED TO DOMINATE THE CWA. EXPECT SOME MID/HI CLDS RELATED TO THIS
WAA TO PASS OVER THE CWA MAINLY THRU 06Z BEFORE SUBSIDENCE RELATED
TO SHARPENING H7 RDG AXIS DRIES UP THESE CLDS. CONSIDERED ADDING
SOME ISOLD SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVNG OVER THE FAR W WHERE NAM
SHOWS POCKET OF H7-5 LAPSE RATES ARND 8C/KM AND SOME OF THE HIER RES
MODELS GENERATE SPOTTY QPF...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUG THE AIRMASS
IS SO DRY IN A RELATIVE SENSE THAT THE DRY FCST GUIDANCE IS ON THE
RIGHT TRACK. COMBINATION OF THE WAA CLDS AND LLVL WARMING RELATED TO
STEADY SW FLOW WL HOLD MIN TEMPS UP MUCH HIER THAN THIS MRNG. IN
FACT...READINGS MAY NOT FALL BLO 50 OVER THE FAR W FM IRONWOOD TO
ONTONAGON WHERE THE SW FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE.

FRI...UPR MI WL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BTWN DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG
TO THE SE AND SFC LO PRES TRACKING ACROSS NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF SHRTWV
MOVING OVER WRN RDG AND INTO FAR NW ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST AS HI AS 18C AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITHIN
LINGERING DRY AIRMASS...TEMPS AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF
MAINLY LK MI OVER THE W HALF WL RISE WELL INTO THE 80S AND PERHAPS
ARPCH 90 AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH DAYTIME MIXING CAUSING SFC DEWPTS
TO DROP AT LEAST CLOSE TO 40 IN THE AFTN...EXPECT MIN RH TO DIP NEAR
20 PCT AT A FEW PLACES. ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH
GUSTS UP TO ARND 20 MPH...FIRE WX CONCERNS WL BE ELEVATED. WINDS WL
BE A BIT STRONGER OVER THE E...BUT MODERATION OFF LK MI WL LIMIT
FIRE WX CONCERNS THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE ROCKIES
AND ANOTHER OVER THE ERN U.S. AND ANOTHER NEAR HUDSON BAY IN A
RATHER BLOCKY PATTERN 12Z SAT. THE HUDSON BAY CLOSED LOW HAS A
TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT. THIS
TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z MON. IN SPITE OF THE UPPER
LEVELS...LOOKS PRETTY DRY OVERALL AND QUIET.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z MON AND TROUGHING ACROSS SW CANADA WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND A TROUGH
IN ERN CANADA. UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR 12Z TUE.
BLOCKY PATTERN CONTINUES FOR 12Z WED WITH OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH TROUGHING IN THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z THU
WITH RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND GENERALLY LOOKS QUIET AS
POPS LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AS A
DRY AIR MASS WILL LINGER DESPITE HIGH PRES EXITING AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING. MARGINAL LLWS IS EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
AT KIWD/KSAW WITH STRONGER WINDS NOTED ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION PER
KMQT/KDLH VAD WIND PROFILES AND MODEL FCSTS. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A WSHFT TO
THE N AND PERHAPS A FEW SHRA. COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...SO MOSTLY A VCSH WAS UTILIZED IN FCST. MIGHT BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IF A SHRA DOES AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KIWD AND KCMX AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL MARINE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT STABILIZES THE
NEAR SFC LAYER.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

SSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
TO THE N AT 20-25 KTS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS BOUNDARY. AS HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 15-20 KTS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON/KLUBER
MARINE...KC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 138 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A NNW FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATING THE WRN GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE E AND AN
UPR RDG IN CENTRAL NAMERICA. A SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM THE UPR
MIDWEST INTO WRN QUEBEC AS WELL AS DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB
RAOB IS BRINGING A MOSUNNY DAY TO UPR MI...BUT MORE MAINLY MID/HI
CLDS RELATED TO WAA IN THE SW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RDG ARE
PRESENT FM WRN LK SUP INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS
UNDER THESE CLDS OVER MN WHERE MID LVL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN
STEEPER...BUT ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN WAA AND RELATIVELY DRY
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS ARE LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF THIS PCPN...WITH
A DIMINISHING TREND IN RECENT HRS.

TNGT...AS SFC HI PRES RDG CONTINUES TO SLIDE SEWD...SW FLOW/WAA ARE
PROGGED TO DOMINATE THE CWA. EXPECT SOME MID/HI CLDS RELATED TO THIS
WAA TO PASS OVER THE CWA MAINLY THRU 06Z BEFORE SUBSIDENCE RELATED
TO SHARPENING H7 RDG AXIS DRIES UP THESE CLDS. CONSIDERED ADDING
SOME ISOLD SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVNG OVER THE FAR W WHERE NAM
SHOWS POCKET OF H7-5 LAPSE RATES ARND 8C/KM AND SOME OF THE HIER RES
MODELS GENERATE SPOTTY QPF...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUG THE AIRMASS
IS SO DRY IN A RELATIVE SENSE THAT THE DRY FCST GUIDANCE IS ON THE
RIGHT TRACK. COMBINATION OF THE WAA CLDS AND LLVL WARMING RELATED TO
STEADY SW FLOW WL HOLD MIN TEMPS UP MUCH HIER THAN THIS MRNG. IN
FACT...READINGS MAY NOT FALL BLO 50 OVER THE FAR W FM IRONWOOD TO
ONTONAGON WHERE THE SW FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE.

FRI...UPR MI WL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BTWN DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG
TO THE SE AND SFC LO PRES TRACKING ACROSS NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF SHRTWV
MOVING OVER WRN RDG AND INTO FAR NW ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST AS HI AS 18C AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITHIN
LINGERING DRY AIRMASS...TEMPS AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF
MAINLY LK MI OVER THE W HALF WL RISE WELL INTO THE 80S AND PERHAPS
ARPCH 90 AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH DAYTIME MIXING CAUSING SFC DEWPTS
TO DROP AT LEAST CLOSE TO 40 IN THE AFTN...EXPECT MIN RH TO DIP NEAR
20 PCT AT A FEW PLACES. ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH
GUSTS UP TO ARND 20 MPH...FIRE WX CONCERNS WL BE ELEVATED. WINDS WL
BE A BIT STRONGER OVER THE E...BUT MODERATION OFF LK MI WL LIMIT
FIRE WX CONCERNS THERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

LONG TERM STARTS AT 00Z SAT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND WARM AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 17C AT 00Z...BUT WILL
DROP TO 1-2C BY 18Z SAT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT UP TO 0.20 INCHES OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA FRI NIGHT...BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SAT...BUT SOME AREAS MAY NOT
EVEN SEE 0.10 INCHES. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY
(CAPE UP TO 750 J/KG)...BUT NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20KTS).

DRY AIR MOVES BACK IN ON SAT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MIN RH VALUES IN
THE MID 20S OVER THE INTERIOR W AROUND AROUND 40 PERCENT INTERIOR E.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE W AND WILL GUST UP TO 25 MPH OVER THE
E. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND E
AND AROUND 60 INTERIOR W. CERTAINLY NOT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
BUT THE DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY NEGATE ANY MOISTURE WE GET FRI NIGHT.
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND POSSIBLY THE KEWEENAW AND ERN UPPER MI SAT EVENING INTO
SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES N OF THE AREA...BUT THINK
POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR LAND AREAS.

SUN WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPS/RH/CLOUDS TO SAT...BUT WITH LOWER WINDS.

MON AND TUE HAD APPEARED WET FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS...BUT THOSE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER. NOW ONLY THE 00Z/05 ECMWF SHOWS PRECIP
OVER THE CWA...EXCEPT THE GLOBAL GEM WHICH HAS PRECIP BRUSHING SRN
MENOMINEE COUNTY. WILL ACCORDINGLY START A DECREASING TREND FOR THE
POP FORECAST FOR MON THROUGH TUE. NO PRECIP EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AS A
DRY AIR MASS WILL LINGER DESPITE HIGH PRES EXITING AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING. MARGINAL LLWS IS EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
AT KIWD/KSAW WITH STRONGER WINDS NOTED ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION PER
KMQT/KDLH VAD WIND PROFILES AND MODEL FCSTS. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A WSHFT TO
THE N AND PERHAPS A FEW SHRA. COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...SO MOSTLY A VCSH WAS UTILIZED IN FCST. MIGHT BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IF A SHRA DOES AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KIWD AND KCMX AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL MARINE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT STABILIZES THE
NEAR SFC LAYER.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

SSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
TO THE N AT 20-25 KTS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS BOUNDARY. AS HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 15-20 KTS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON/KLUBER
MARINE...KC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 302 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE
PANHANDLE...MOVING EAST...AS FORECAST BY THE HRRR MODEL. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND POSE A WIND
GUST THREAT. THEY ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY COALESCE ACROSS NRN NEB TONIGHT BUT
THE NAM IS SHOWING MUCH LESS STORM COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAYS MODEL
RUN. THUS...LESS STORM COVERAGE WILL HOLD UP THE PROGRESS OF THE
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SWRN NEB AND
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTN.

THIS IS FARTHER NORTH AND THE GFS SHOWS THE SAME PLACING MORE OF
WESTERN AND NCNTL NEB IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. CONRAD SUGGESTS
DOMINANT RIGHT MOVING SUPER CELLS AT THE ONSET. SHEAR WEAKENS IN THE
LATE EVENING AND A MULTICELLS REGIME TAKES HOLD. 0-1KM HELICITY
INCREASE IN THE EARLY EVENING SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

THE LATEST MODEL BLEND PLUS BIAS CORRECTION SHOWS DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 50S ALONG I-80 SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE MET GUIDANCE SHOWS
MID 50S. NONE OF THESE NUMBERS SUGGEST A SHALLOW MIXING HEIGHT BUT
GIVEN THE FRONT AND HIGH HELICITY AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY DEVELOP.
THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST OF TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STORM COVERAGE BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE 700MB WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS INDICATED IN THE NAM MODEL
LIFTING VERY QUICKLY THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A CLOSED H700MB LOW ACROSS ERN
WY/NERN COLO SUNDAY MORNING AT 12Z. THIS LOW MOVES VERY SLOWLY INTO
THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY. THE NAM SHOWS INSTABILITY LIFTING NORTH INTO
NCNTL NEB SUNDAY AFTN. THE ATM SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STORM MODE
IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLNS FOR MONDAY BUT SOME SORT OF
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD STILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS NEBRASKA OR
WRN IA/MN...NWRN KS OR SRN SD. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A LIKELY CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY EAST CLOSER TO THE
WARM SECTOR.

THERE IS NO REAL CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE FRONT IS
FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS SWRN NEB.
HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
40S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY AND MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AMPLIFY ACROSS WRN N AMERICA
SUPPORTING A FRESH SHOT OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE TO ISOLATED WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW COLD AIR ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES AT H500MB AROUND -18C AND
H700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 0C OR COLDER. THE ECM SHOWS H500MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -25C THURSDAY MORNING.

BIAS CORRECTION ADDED TO THE MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES PRODUCED
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER AND FROST MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WRN SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PANHANDLE. SKIES WOULD NEED TO CLEAR TO
SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS RISE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS ARE
INDICATED BY THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 06Z. THE LATEST NAM MODEL RUN SHOWS
MUCH LESS STORM COVERAGE. THUS ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE IS ALL THAT
IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

A FLOOD ADVISORY WITH MINOR FLOODING TO CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER NEAR LEWELLEN. THE CURRENT STAGE AT LEWELLEN IS 7.7
FEET WHICH IS JUST OVER THE FLOOD STAGE OF 7.5 FEET. A SLOW RISE TO
7.9 FEET IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE UPSTREAM AT LISCO. ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
ELEVATED FLOWS WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THIS
TIME...THE SOUTH PLATTE AND MAIN STEM PLATTE RIVER FROM ROSCOE TO
BRADY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS
TONIGHT. UA ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTH TO SRN
SASKATCHEWAN. CLOSED LOWS WERE PRESENT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
THE FIRST LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS...WHILE THE SECOND WAS
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER THE OZARKS WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM FAR
NWRN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. BETWEEN THE APPG FRONT AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE HIGH...SRLY WINDS WERE PRESENT ACORSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. WITH SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO
20 MPH ATTM...TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT WERE VERY MILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. READINGS RANGED FROM 56 AT OGALLALA AND
IMPERIAL...TO 63 AT VALENTINE...AINSWORTH AND THEDFORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGS
ARE TEMPERATURES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT. FOR TODAY...THE COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WILL MIGRATE
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON...IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...H85 TEMPS WILL REACH 22 TO 25C ACROSS FAR
NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE WARMEST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE H85 TEMPS
REACH 24 TO 26C THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF WARM TEMPS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INVOF THE APPG
COLD FRONT. IN THESE AREAS I WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE ON TEMPS AS WE
TYPICALLY ARE WARMER WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FROPA...IE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. AS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER
TODAY...HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF PCPN IN THE FCST. LOOKING AT THE
NAM SOLN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...YEILDED SOME DECENT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE CAP IS
REALLY STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND DOESN/T WEAKEN UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL CONTINUE A DRY FCST THROUGH 00Z
SAT. FOR TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOME WEAK CONVECTION ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AND HAVE PLACED MY HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOCATED TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT MUCH OF ANY LOW LEVEL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO SLIGHTS IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE 4KM WRF AND GFS SOLNS
HAVE SOME INDICATION OF ISOLATED STORMS LATE TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEBRASKA. THE SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE
RATHER LIMITED AND CONFINED TO FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE  ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KTS TONIGHT. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES CONTINUE TO BE STEEP OVERNIGHT...SO THERE IS THAT CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS BACK NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS AND HI
RES MODELS ...NAM 4KM...NAM...ARW AND NMM ALL AGREE THAT SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND EMERGING INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT PEAK HEATING. A WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE
SFC LOW ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR IMPERIAL TO CURTIS AND THEN FARTHER
EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHILE A DRY LINE WILL ARC SOUTH
FROM THE SFC LOW FROM FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH EXTREME WESTERN
KANSAS. THIS WILL SET UP A TRIPLE POINT IN THE VICINITY OF FAR
NORTHEAST COLORADO OR FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT APPEARS THAT
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT BY LATE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY...WITH OTHER SCT STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRY
LINE. THE STORMS NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT SHOULD QUICKLY EXPAND EAST
AND NORTHEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA SATURDAY EVENING. POINT SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW
CONDITIONS QUITE UNSTABLE DUE TO ADEQUATE POOLED MOISTURE /DEW
POINTS NEARING 60F/ STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WIND PROFILES IN THE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE POSSIBLE INCLUDING LARGE HAIL
AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AS THE POSITION OF THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES
WILL BE KEY TO WHERE THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL RESIDE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOW FOR SUNDAY. BOUNDARY LOCATION ETC. WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON
SATURDAY NIGHT NIGHT CONVECTION. SEEMS REASONABLE THAT AN MCS WILL
LIKELY HAVE MOVED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THIS COULD VERY WELL PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CORRESPONDING SEVERE THREAT FARTHER SOUTH IN KS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. AT THE VERY LEAST EXPECT A
SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LATER
FORECASTS TO DETERMINE THE LOCATION FOR ANY SEVERE TSTM ACTIVITY.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A
NORTHERN TRACK WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A MORE WESTERLY DRYING
FLOW ALOFT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS OUR AREA. POPS
HAVE TRENDED DOWN TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MIDWEEK DUE TO THE
FARTHER NORTH TRACK. IT WILL REMAIN COOL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...AS A
PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH A CANADIAN AIRMASS MOVING
SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LEVEL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATRUDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS ARE
INDICATED BY THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 06Z. THE LATEST NAM MODEL RUN SHOWS
MUCH LESS STORM COVERAGE. THUS ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE IS ALL THAT
IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR
LEWELLEN. THE CURRENT STAGE AT LEWELLEN IS 7.6 FEET WHICH IS JUST
OVER THE FLOOD STAGE OF 7.5 FEET. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE RIVER LEVEL
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AND THE MAIN STEM OF THE
PLATTE RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF NORTH PLATTE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AT THIS TIME...THE SOUTH PLATTE AND MAIN STEM PLATTE RIVER FROM
NORTH PLATTE TO BRADY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...BUTTLER




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 1218 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED A LITTLE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MAY CLIP KNOX/CEDAR COUNTIES EARLY
THIS MORNING. NO MODEL HAD A REAL HANDLE ON THIS...WITH MOST
RECENT RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL HRRR FINALLY CATCHING ON BY 09Z.
NOTHING MORE THAN A PASSING SPRINKLE...MAYBE WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

QUIET AND VERY WARM WEATHER TODAY...THEN MORE ACTIVE AND WET
WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIRM ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH
CLOSED LOWS ACROSS BOTH COASTS. THIS RESULTS IN ONE MORE DRY DAY
WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS PROBABLY
REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT STILL TOO
HIGH FOR ANY RED FLAG FIRE CONCERNS. THESE HIGHS ARE ALSO WELL
BELOW ANY MAX TEMP RECORDS TODAY WHICH RANGE FROM 95 TO 101.

THERE IS A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUSHED BY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARD I80 THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF IT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PRECIP COULD VERY WELL EVEN REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT SETTLES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH BUT NOT MUCH.
THIS SETS UP A PRETTY TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HIGHS NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE MID 60S...BUT NEAR 80 ALONG
THE KS/NE BORDER. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED REMNANTS FROM ANY
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY MORNING. BUT...AGAIN IT
COULD ALSO BE DRY AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING OTHERWISE. WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY DOES
BUILD NEAR IT. A WEAK CAP MAY HOLD WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY. IF A STORM WOULD DEVELOP...THERE IS JUST
A MARGINAL RISK THAT IT COULD BE SEVERE.

SATURDAY NIGHT NIGHT...ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE SURFACE FRONT AS DEPICTED BY VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THE NAM
IS ALSO HINTING THAT A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE MAIN
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY IS TRICKY AS MODEL ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT
OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. THERE COULD BE LINGERING ACTIVITY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONGER STORMS COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 60S. ANY MORNING
CONVECTION COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT...
THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW OF THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

PRECIP CHANCE SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SEVERE
STORMS SUNDAY EVENING...AND MAYBE EVEN OVERNIGHT AS ELEVATED
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE HALF TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES
OF RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. PW
VALUES INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
BASED ON NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS TIME.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY THROUGH MONDAY
AS SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN IN THE REGION. COULD ALSO
BE A SEVERE RISK ON MONDAY AS WELL...WITH PRECIP THREAT CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD.

TUESDAY WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS BASED ON OLDER MODEL BLENDS...BUT REALLY THE NEWER MODELS
ARE SHOWING IT COULD BE DRY AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING
ONE MORE SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS...WITH DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

GUSTY SWLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
ONSET OF DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING. A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND
BACKING OF THE WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES. A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY FROM THE ND-MN RED RIVER VALLEY
TO E-CNTRL WY WILL CONTINUE SWD...REACHING KOFK LATE TONIGHT AND
KOMA AND KLNK BEFORE NOON SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL TRANSITION
FROM SLY TO NELY OR ELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A MODEST WLY
NOCTURNAL LLJ IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF E-CNTRL AND SERN NE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS THROUGH
SUNRISE SATURDAY AT KOMA AND KLNK. VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MEAD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 656 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED A LITTLE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MAY CLIP KNOX/CEDAR COUNTIES EARLY
THIS MORNING. NO MODEL HAD A REAL HANDLE ON THIS...WITH MOST
RECENT RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL HRRR FINALLY CATCHING ON BY 09Z.
NOTHING MORE THAN A PASSING SPRINKLE...MAYBE WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

QUIET AND VERY WARM WEATHER TODAY...THEN MORE ACTIVE AND WET
WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIRM ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH
CLOSED LOWS ACROSS BOTH COASTS. THIS RESULTS IN ONE MORE DRY DAY
WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS PROBABLY
REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT STILL TOO
HIGH FOR ANY RED FLAG FIRE CONCERNS. THESE HIGHS ARE ALSO WELL
BELOW ANY MAX TEMP RECORDS TODAY WHICH RANGE FROM 95 TO 101.

THERE IS A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUSHED BY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARD I80 THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF IT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PRECIP COULD VERY WELL EVEN REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT SETTLES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH BUT NOT MUCH.
THIS SETS UP A PRETTY TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HIGHS NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE MID 60S...BUT NEAR 80 ALONG
THE KS/NE BORDER. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED REMNANTS FROM ANY
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY MORNING. BUT...AGAIN IT
COULD ALSO BE DRY AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING OTHERWISE. WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY DOES
BUILD NEAR IT. A WEAK CAP MAY HOLD WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY. IF A STORM WOULD DEVELOP...THERE IS JUST
A MARGINAL RISK THAT IT COULD BE SEVERE.

SATURDAY NIGHT NIGHT...ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE SURFACE FRONT AS DEPICTED BY VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THE NAM
IS ALSO HINTING THAT A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE MAIN
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY IS TRICKY AS MODEL ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT
OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. THERE COULD BE LINGERING ACTIVITY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONGER STORMS COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 60S. ANY MORNING
CONVECTION COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT...
THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW OF THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

PRECIP CHANCE SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SEVERE
STORMS SUNDAY EVENING...AND MAYBE EVEN OVERNIGHT AS ELEVATED
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE HALF TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES
OF RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. PW
VALUES INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
BASED ON NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS TIME.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY THROUGH MONDAY
AS SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN IN THE REGION. COULD ALSO
BE A SEVERE RISK ON MONDAY AS WELL...WITH PRECIP THREAT CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD.

TUESDAY WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS BASED ON OLDER MODEL BLENDS...BUT REALLY THE NEWER MODELS
ARE SHOWING IT COULD BE DRY AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING
ONE MORE SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS...WITH DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER DEVELOPED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE
COULD LAST ANOTHER A COUPLE HOURS...BUT TOO SMALL A CHANCE TO
INCLUDE AT KOFK. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 18KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25KTS...THEN DECREASES TO 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING. A
LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 45KTS LATER TONIGHT NEAR KLNK.
THIS COULD SPARK A FEW STORMS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 600 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED A LITTLE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MAY CLIP KNOX/CEDAR COUNTIES EARLY
THIS MORNING. NO MODEL HAD A REAL HANDLE ON THIS...WITH MOST
RECENT RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL HRRR FINALLY CATCHING ON BY 09Z.
NOTHING MORE THAN A PASSING SPRINKLE...MAYBE WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

QUIET AND VERY WARM WEATHER TODAY...THEN MORE ACTIVE AND WET
WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIRM ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH
CLOSED LOWS ACROSS BOTH COASTS. THIS RESULTS IN ONE MORE DRY DAY
WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS PROBABLY
REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT STILL TOO
HIGH FOR ANY RED FLAG FIRE CONCERNS. THESE HIGHS ARE ALSO WELL
BELOW ANY MAX TEMP RECORDS TODAY WHICH RANGE FROM 95 TO 101.

THERE IS A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUSHED BY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARD I80 THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF IT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PRECIP COULD VERY WELL EVEN REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT SETTLES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH BUT NOT MUCH.
THIS SETS UP A PRETTY TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HIGHS NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE MID 60S...BUT NEAR 80 ALONG
THE KS/NE BORDER. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED REMNANTS FROM ANY
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY MORNING. BUT...AGAIN IT
COULD ALSO BE DRY AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING OTHERWISE. WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY DOES
BUILD NEAR IT. A WEAK CAP MAY HOLD WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY. IF A STORM WOULD DEVELOP...THERE IS JUST
A MARGINAL RISK THAT IT COULD BE SEVERE.

SATURDAY NIGHT NIGHT...ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE SURFACE FRONT AS DEPICTED BY VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THE NAM
IS ALSO HINTING THAT A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE MAIN
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY IS TRICKY AS MODEL ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT
OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. THERE COULD BE LINGERING ACTIVITY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONGER STORMS COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 60S. ANY MORNING
CONVECTION COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT...
THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW OF THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

PRECIP CHANCE SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SEVERE
STORMS SUNDAY EVENING...AND MAYBE EVEN OVERNIGHT AS ELEVATED
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE HALF TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES
OF RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. PW
VALUES INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
BASED ON NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS TIME.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY THROUGH MONDAY
AS SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN IN THE REGION. COULD ALSO
BE A SEVERE RISK ON MONDAY AS WELL...WITH PRECIP THREAT CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD.

TUESDAY WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS BASED ON OLDER MODEL BLENDS...BUT REALLY THE NEWER MODELS
ARE SHOWING IT COULD BE DRY AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING
ONE MORE SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS...WITH DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. A FEW CLOUDS MID CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT REMAIN VFR.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KERN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

 850 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA PROVIDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...A RELATIVELY SMALL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IGNITED OVER
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY THIS MORNING WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WERE EVIDENT ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. SMALL HAIL AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO A QUARTER-INCH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTS THAT THIS BAND
WILL EXPAND FROM NORTHWEST ARIZONA ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEVADA THE REST OF THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...CLOSE
TO WHAT WAS ALREADY INDICATED IN THE INHERITED GRIDS. THE CENTER OF
THE INCOMING CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR ANAHEIM THIS MORNING AND CONVECTION
NEAR THIS CENTER SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE POP/WX GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT
THESE LATEST TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST DETAILED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION LOOK ON TRACK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THIS MORNINGS BAND OF RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED NORTH OVER THE LAS VEGAS AREA. CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON (AFT 20Z).
THESE SHOULD AFFECT THE MCCARRAN TERMINAL UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN IN A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR MOST OF
THE DAY EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING MAINLY A SOUTHERLY WIND
ACROSS THE AREA 10-15 KTS AND SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. CIGS WITH
SHOWERS MAINLY 5-7K FT BUT COULD DROP AS LOW AS 3K FT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
250 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN
NEVADA DURING THE DAY PROVING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY
PERSISTENT ACTIVITY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN INYO AND ESMERALDA
COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST FORCING HAS BEEN LOCATED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN MARGINAL AS THESE CELLS HAVE BEEN MOVING FAIRLY
QUICKLY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT FORCING OVER THIS AREA HAS
BEEN MUCH WEAKER AND THESE CELLS ARE NOT LASTING TOO LONG. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA WILL START OUT WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. LI VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 0/-3 BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CAPE VALUES
WILL ALSO INCREASE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 0.50-0.65 INCHES SO SOME OF THE HEAVIER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. WITH THE UPPER LOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DOWN TO AROUND 6500-7000 FEET AND ITS
LIKELY SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS WILL SEE A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW.
THE BEST SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN ACROSS LINCOLN...CENTRAL NYE...
ESMERALDA...AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS AREA
COULD SEE MORE PERSISTENT STORMS WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
WITH THE COLD UPPER LEVELS SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORM.

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WE WILL LOSE SOME OF THE ENERGY FOR
STORMS TO CONTINUE...HOWEVER WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD ITS LIKELY THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY
LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS UNSTABLE AS WE
SAW ON FRIDAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED STORMS.
ONCE AGAIN SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORM.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGHS TODAY ABOUT 15
DEGREES COLDER THAN WE SAW ON THURSDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY...BUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON READINGS SHOULD
JUMP ABOUT 7-9 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY WITH A WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA AND RIDGING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT KEEPING A BIT OF MOISTURE
LINGERING ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY. THE MODELS KEEP A WEAK CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AND NOT REALLY
FLUSHING OUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF LINCOLN COUNTY AS WELL. MOST MODELS TREND TOWARD WEAK
RIDGING BY THURSDAY BUT STILL KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAIR
SHORT TERM...GORELOW
LONG TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
!--NOT SENT--!




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

 811 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SUNDAY WILL START DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE IN MANY
AREAS BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PRODUCES A FEW SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FOR SUNDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RETURN TO SUNSHINE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY AT 8PM SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS SHIFTING ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES REGION EAST INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE AND TROUGH AT 700MB PER
MESOANALYSIS BUT IS OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BEHIND
THIS LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS ARE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WORKING
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. HERE IN BUFFALO WE DID NOT REGISTER ANY
RAIN AS OF 8PM FROM THE LEADING SHOWERS AND ROCHESTER ONLY PICKED UP
A TRACE. BASED ON THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE SHOWERS AND BROKEN
APPEARANCE OF THE RADAR ECHOES WE HAVE SCALED BACK POP AND QPF
FORECASTS THIS EVENING. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. SO HAVE CARRIED CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH SHOWERS SHIFTING
EAST INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK BY/AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXPECT A SOLID CLEARING TREND LATE TONIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT AND CLEARING WILL REACH THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR BY
AROUND 7AM THEN CLEAR LEWIS COUNTY BY 9-10AM SUNDAY.

ONCE THE RAIN CLEARS LEWIS COUNTY...SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN A BRIEF SLOT OF DRY
AIR BETWEEN THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND THE NEXT WAVE. THIS NEXT
WEAK TROUGH AND AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS WEAK ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA...AND COLD AIR ALOFT
COMBINES WITH MODEST DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -2C ON SUNDAY...AND THIS WILL FORCE A
MUCH COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE
QUITE BREEZY AS WELL WITH A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION IN PLACE...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
QUICKLY END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND A WEAKENING OF
THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHERE SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST WILL
BE THE UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...AND NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE MAY CONTINUE TO GENERATE
A FEW SHOWERS DEEP INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE WITH THE NEARING OF A SURFACE HIGH AND SURFACE
RIDGING/DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. GIVEN WE WILL START THE EVENING
ON THE COOL SIDE...CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DROP THAT MUCH MORE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID
30S ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THE
LAKE PLAINS DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND AIR TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND
60. WHERE CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE THE STILL PRESENT CYCLONIC 500 HPA FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
CLOUDS TO BLOSSOM IN THE LATE MORNING.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO TUESDAY...HOLDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT BAY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT MAY BE JUST FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO
ALLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN DRY OVER OUR CWA.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS ANY NUDGE FARTHER
NORTHWARD TO THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO DRAW A SHOWER OR
TWO UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S...COOLEST
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A FEW MID 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE RUNS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE OUR REGION WILL REMAIN
UNDER A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IS
FORECAST TO PUSH A TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
CONSENSUS TIMING THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND GFS
BEST LI/S DOWN TO -2C.

EXPECT A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BEHIND THIS FEATURE BEFORE THE UPPER LOW
PIVOTS INTO THE LOWER LAKES SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERSISTENT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING SUBTLE FEATURES THE FORECAST WILL CARRY GENERIC CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT
WARMER ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE AIDED BY A
SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY AROUND 60. IN
TERMS OF GUIDANCE...HEDGE WARMER THAN CONSENSUS PRE-COLD FRONT AND
BELOW CONSENSUS FOR SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW LIKELY TO BE OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
A FEW ROUNDS OF MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FIRST ROUND IS
SHIFTING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES TOWARD CENTRAL NEW YORK AT 00Z WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS SHIFTING INTO WNY
JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. CIGS AT 00Z ARE VFR BUT SHOULD
LOWER TOWARD MVFR AT MOST SITES LATER THIS EVENING FOR A SHORT
PERIOD ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. SOME
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IFR CIGS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A FEW PATCHY
UPSTREAM OBS SHOWING IFR CIGS NEAR GEORGIAN BAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR IFR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS...WILL HOLD AT MVFR.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A RETURN TO VFR. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. CIGS/VSBY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
VFR WITH THIS FEATURE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES THIS EVENING WITH A ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FORECAST ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

ON LAKE ERIE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO AROUND 20
KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BEFORE WINDS TEMPORARILY SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS...INCLUDING THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING.

ON LAKE ONTARIO...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST ON
SUNDAY AND MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE EAST HALF
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH ON THE WEST HALF.
WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH SLOWLY ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1238 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MAIN CONCERN THIS UPDATE IS ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOKING LIKE WINDS BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY...BUT DO NOT BEGIN INCREASING FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL SOME AREAS IN SASKATCHEWAN WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITY - LIKELY DUE TO SMOKE FROM LARGE FIRES IN NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. SWIFT CURRENT HAD BEEN REPORTING VISIBILITIES
OF 2-3 MILES BUT NOT SEEING OTHER SURROUNDING STATIONS WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WILL BE MONITORING FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
OTHERWISE BLENDED CURRENT OBSERVATIONS WITH TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND
NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MOST OF THE CUMULUS AND ISOLATED...HIGH-BASED SHOWERS /AND A LONE
STORM THAT OCCURRED IN WILLIAMS COUNTY EARLIER/ ARE DIMINISHING
WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND STABILIZATION. THAT IS IN
LINE WITH OUR LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE. THE MAIN QUESTION
GOING FORWARD WILL BE WHAT /IF ANY/ SHOWER POTENTIAL EXISTS OVER-
NIGHT. RECENT OPERATIONAL HRRR SIMULATIONS CONTINUE TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO REALITY...AND
THE 18 UTC GFS AND 00 UTC NAM ARE AT ODDS OVER SHOWER POTENTIAL.
THAT PROVIDED LOW ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR US TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST
GOING OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THAT WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED LATER.
THE ONE CHANGE WE DID MAKE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE LOWS
BY 2-4 F IN MOST AREAS BASED ON MID-EVENING TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

FINALLY...ONE OTHER ISSUE THAT WE WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH FOR
LATER FORECAST RELEASES IS HOW THICK SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES MAY
BE FRIDAY. OBSERVATIONS IN SASKATCHEWAN HAVE SHOWN VISIBILITIES
AS LOW AS 4SM FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
CROSS THE AREA. THUS...IT/S POSSIBLE THICKER LOW-LEVEL SMOKE MAY
IMPACT PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
AT THE VERY LEAST IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO BELIEVE THE SMOKE WILL BE
SENSIBLE VIA SMELL FRIDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WE WILL LET THE RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 8 PM CDT
/01 UTC/...AS WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL ND HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND
10 MPH. HUMIDITIES ARE AT OR ABOVE 20 PERCENT AS OF 0050 UTC AND
THEY WILL CONTINUE A SLOW RISE WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH MID EVENING IN NORTHWEST ND. A HIGH-BASED SHOWER
DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON NEAR 2230 UTC...AND EVEN THOUGH
THE ENTLN TOTAL LIGHTNING PLOT HAS NOT YET SHOWN ANY IN-CLOUD OR
CLOUD-TO-GROUND STRIKES...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MLCAPE
/UP TO 250 J/KG PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS/ IN THAT AREA SUGGEST A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC SHOWS CUMULUS ALL ALONG A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MT SO IT
IS PLAUSIBLE MORE THAN JUST THAT INITIAL SHOWER MAY FORM. THAT
BEING SAID...RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE LIKELY OVERDONE WITH EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT BASED ON THAT MODEL/S RECENT AND LONGER-TERM BIASES.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE CONTINUING THE RED FLAG WARNING IN EAST CENTRAL
ND FOR NOW GIVEN LATE-AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS AND ONGOING FIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
TODAY AND A COLD FRONT TOMORROW.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING WINDS...HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON TO RISE RAPIDLY INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES HAVE FURTHER EXACERBATED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS. WITH VERY DRY AIR MIXING DOWN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN A
BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY. THIS IS WHAT PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20
MPH...COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY 20 PERCENT OR LESS AND DRY FUELS IS
PRODUCING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
IN NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD HAVE
PASSED TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THESE AREAS MAY ESCAPE CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MAINLY DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WITH A
PERSISTANT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND IS RATHER MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. HOWEVER... PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.

CHANGES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON FOR THE START THE WORK WEEK AS
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST DEEPENS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND AND LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE LOW REMAINING
NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR SMOKE AFFECTING PARTS OF THE AREA. THE
MAIN AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT HAS
ARRIVED AT KISN...WHICH HAS SHIFTED WINDS TO THE NORTH. EXPECT WINDS
TO BEGIN INCREASING A FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH NORTHERLY
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT EXPECTED TO OCCUR FRIDAY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

 314 PM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION ACROSS NEVADA THIS MORNING HAVE
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS HAS LIMITED
SURFACE HEATING SOME TODAY, SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF LAKE, MODOC, AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES.
THUS FAR, SOME ONE HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 0.30" HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE CELLS IN MODOC AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES.
WITH STORMS MOVING SOUTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE ACTIVITY IS
THREATENING TO REACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

WHAT APPEARS TO A BIT OF A CONCERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IS THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOME OF THESE SAME AREAS. ALSO,
EXTENSIVE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA ARE LIKELY TO BRING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAINFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SIDE THIS EVENING, PROBABLY IN EXCESS OF A HALF OF AN
INCH ACROSS MUCH OF MODOC COUNTY. THUS, THE PRIMARY CONCERN
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING,
POSSIBLE FLOODING ON AND NEAR BURN SCAR AREAS FROM RECENT YEARS,
AND, SHOULD THIS HEAVY RAIN STALL OVER SNOWPACK AREAS, MORE
EXTENSIVE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE SEVERE WIND AND HAIL IS
STILL A THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING SUSPECT IT WILL BE ISOLATED AT
MOST DUE TO THE FACT THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SURFACE DYNAMICS
TO SUPPORT IT ARE FAIRLY WEAK. 500MB TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
WARMING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE USED THE HRRR FOR MANY
OF THE FORECAST REFINEMENTS TODAY, BUT HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED THAT AS
OBSERVED CONDITIONS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT.

FOR THE WEST SIDE THERE IS STILL SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, ALBEIT LESS THAN THE EAST SIDE AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AS THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN AND THEN RE-FIRE AGAIN. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY IS LESSER
TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
THIS WILL BE PARTIALLY COUNTERACTED BY INCREASED SURFACE HEATING
DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. WHILE MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES, THE SREF AND NAM12 DO SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADES. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE OF SOME CONCERN AS PWATS WILL BE 0.75" TO JUST OVER
1 INCH- SIMILAR TO TODAY. BTL

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
SUNDAY MORNING AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST, BUT
THEN WILL RETREAT WESTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING INCREASING THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE MARINE LATER COULD
THICKEN ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. COULD NOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN PARTS OF THE ILLINOIS VALLEY, GRANTS PASS AND THE NORTH
END OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON
ON MONDAY, BUT THE TRACK IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION, SO IT
WILL REMAIN DRY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
WITH A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE COAST. THE MODELS DIFFER
WITH THE DETAILS AFTER TUESDAY, BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE, FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED FOR THE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW
MOVING TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, BUT IT`S STILL A WAYS
OUT AND THE DETAILS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE. FOR NOW WE`LL KEEP IT
DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06/18Z TAF CYCLE...THE MAIN CONCERN INTO THIS
EVENING WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS, VERY HEAVY
RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START OUT ISOLATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH A GENERAL MOVEMENT FROM EAST TO WEST, THEN NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM THE CASCADES/SISKIYOUS EAST, BUT STORMS MAY
ADVANCE AS FAR WEST AS JACKSON COUNTY (INCLUDING KMFR) LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED, EXCEPT FOR THE COAST WHERE MVFR AND LOCAL IFR
CIGS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT FRI 6 MAY 2016...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE MARINE FORECAST THIS MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THIS TREND OF STRONG
NORTH WINDS/STEEP SEAS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS AND LULLS AT NIGHT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. MODELS HAVE MAINTAINED THE POTENTIAL FOR
GALES OVER THE WEEKEND AND GALE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT. THESE WILL
LIKELY BE UPGRADED LATER TODAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ030-031.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ022.

CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ080>085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370.
- GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
- GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
  PZZ376.

$$

BTL/MAP/DW




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

 1059 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN MADE AND SENT FOR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO SKY COVERAGE,
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS MORNING IS
SENDING INVERTED TROUGHS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM EAST TO
WEST TODAY. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS MODOC, LAKE, SISKIYOU, AND KLAMATH COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REACH TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE WEST SIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND,
MORE LIKELY, THIS EVENING FROM ABOUT CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE BEAR CREEK PORTION OF THE ROGUE VALLEY,
OREGON CAVES, AND THE LOWER KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY. FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06/12Z TAF CYCLE...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST SIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM THE CASCADES/SISKIYOUS EAST, BUT STORMS MAY
ADVANCE AS FAR WEST AS JACKSON/JOSEPHINE COUNTY (INCLUDING KMFR) LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING IFR
CIGS/VIS, VERY HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY WINDS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT FRI 6 MAY 2016...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE MARINE FORECAST THIS MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THIS TREND OF STRONG
NORTH WINDS/STEEP SEAS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS AND LULLS AT NIGHT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. MODELS HAVE MAINTAINED THE POTENTIAL FOR
GALES OVER THE WEEKEND AND GALE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT. THESE WILL
LIKELY BE UPGRADED LATER TODAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND WILL HELP GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. THE CUTOFF LOW THAT
DOESN`T QUIT REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...SLOWLY MOVING TO
THE EAST AND FEEDING THE AREA WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES
FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

THE INTERSECTION OF DEEP MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT IN EASTERN
SISKIYOU...MODOC...AND LAKE COUNTIES TODAY. THE WRF ARW AND NMM
SHOW STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MOUNT SHASTA EASTWARD TO
ALTURAS AND NORTHEAST TO LAKEVIEW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES IN FROM THE EAST PER THE NAM AND SREF MODEL
OUTPUT. THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING SIMILAR. GIVEN
CURRENT SNOW DEPTH OVER THE WARNER MOUNTAINS OF 62 INCHES PER
DISMAL SWAMP SNOTEL...AND FORECAST SNOW LEVELS OF 9500 FEET...THIS
DEFINITELY PROVIDES THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID SNOW MELT AND FLASH
FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
SISKIYOU COUNTY...MODOC...EXTREME EASTERN KLAMATH...AND MOST OF
LAKE COUNTY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE TOP 10 PERCENT FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ALSO SUPPORT THE FFA AREA. THE WESTERN FRINGES
OF THIS HAZARD AREA ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE ANY HEAVY RAIN PROBLEMS
BUT HAVE LEFT THE AREA INTACT FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT HEAVY RAIN LOCATIONS...AND WITH LATEST HRRR
OUTPUT LINING UP PRETTY NICELY WITH THE HAZARD AREA.

ADDITIONALLY...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER MODOC AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.
EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY ALSO FEATURES A CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FORECAST MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OF 2000+ J/KG, LI
VALUES -4 TO -6, AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30+KT.  STRONG
WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL A POSSIBILITY TODAY. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DAY SHOULD START OUT SUNNY IN MANY
PLACES EAST OF THE CASCADES...WHICH WILL YIELD UNINHIBITED SURFACE
HEATING AND POTENTIALLY MAX OUT THE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.

INSTABILITY DIMINISHES TONIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOW
SUIT. ON SATURDAY A DRYING AIR MASS WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL YIELD
SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS WHILE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
MODOC COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEST OF THE CASCADES. BY SUNDAY COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ELIMINATES THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER COULD BRING DRIZZLE
TO THE COAST.

ON MONDAY A WARM TREND BEGINS THAT WILL LAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AT LEAST...WITH TEMPERATURES MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A PORTION OF THE PREVIOUS LONG-TERM
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE
COAST TUESDAY WITH A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE COAST. THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS AFTER TUESDAY, BUT THE PATTERN
REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ030-031.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ022.

CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CAZ080>085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

BTL/NSK/TRW




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

 502 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06/12Z TAF CYCLE...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST SIDE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM THE
CASCADES/SISKIYOUS EAST, BUT STORMS MAY ADVANCE AS FAR WEST AS
JACKSON/JOSEPHINE COUNTY (INCLUDING KMFR) LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING IFR CIGS/VIS, VERY HEAVY RAIN,
SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY WINDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH LATE THIS
EVENING. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT FRI 6 MAY 2016...FEW CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE MARINE FORECAST THIS MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THIS
TREND OF STRONG NORTH WINDS/STEEP SEAS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS
AND LULLS AT NIGHT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. MODELS
HAVE MAINTAINED THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES OVER THE WEEKEND AND GALE
WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT. THESE WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED LATER
TODAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND WILL HELP GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. THE CUTOFF LOW THAT
DOESN`T QUIT REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...SLOWLY MOVING TO
THE EAST AND FEEDING THE AREA WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES
FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

THE INTERSECTION OF DEEP MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT IN EASTERN
SISKIYOU...MODOC...AND LAKE COUNTIES TODAY. THE WRF ARW AND NMM
SHOW STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MOUNT SHASTA EASTWARD TO
ALTURAS AND NORTHEAST TO LAKEVIEW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES IN FROM THE EAST PER THE NAM AND SREF MODEL
OUTPUT. THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING SIMILAR. GIVEN
CURRENT SNOW DEPTH OVER THE WARNER MOUNTAINS OF 62 INCHES PER
DISMAL SWAMP SNOTEL...AND FORECAST SNOW LEVELS OF 9500 FEET...THIS
DEFINITELY PROVIDES THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID SNOW MELT AND FLASH
FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
SISKIYOU COUNTY...MODOC...EXTREME EASTERN KLAMATH...AND MOST OF
LAKE COUNTY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE TOP 10 PERCENT FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ALSO SUPPORT THE FFA AREA. THE WESTERN FRINGES
OF THIS HAZARD AREA ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE ANY HEAVY RAIN PROBLEMS
BUT HAVE LEFT THE AREA INTACT FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT HEAVY RAIN LOCATIONS...AND WITH LATEST HRRR
OUTPUT LINING UP PRETTY NICELY WITH THE HAZARD AREA.

ADDITIONALLY...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER MODOC AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.
EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY ALSO FEATURES A CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FORECAST MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OF 2000+ J/KG, LI
VALUES -4 TO -6, AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30+KT.  STRONG
WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL A POSSIBILITY TODAY. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DAY SHOULD START OUT SUNNY IN MANY
PLACES EAST OF THE CASCADES...WHICH WILL YIELD UNINHIBITED SURFACE
HEATING AND POTENTIALLY MAX OUT THE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.

INSTABILITY DIMINISHES TONIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOW
SUIT. ON SATURDAY A DRYING AIR MASS WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL YIELD
SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS WHILE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
MODOC COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEST OF THE CASCADES. BY SUNDAY COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ELIMINATES THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER COULD BRING DRIZZLE
TO THE COAST.

ON MONDAY A WARM TREND BEGINS THAT WILL LAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AT LEAST...WITH TEMPERATURES MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A PORTION OF THE PREVIOUS LONG-TERM
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE
COAST TUESDAY WITH A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE COAST. THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS AFTER TUESDAY, BUT THE PATTERN
REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ030-031.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ022.

CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CAZ080>085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

 339 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND WILL HELP GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. THE CUTOFF LOW THAT
DOESN`T QUIT REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...SLOWLY MOVING TO
THE EAST AND FEEDING THE AREA WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES
FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

THE INTERSECTION OF DEEP MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
WILL BE MOST PROMINENT IN EASTERN SISKIYOU...MODOC...AND LAKE
COUNTIES TODAY. THE WRF ARW AND NMM SHOW STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM MOUNT SHASTA EASTWARD TO ALTURAS AND NORTHEAST TO LAKEVIEW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES IN FROM THE
EAST PER THE NAM AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT. THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT IS
SUGGESTING SIMILAR. GIVEN CURRENT SNOW DEPTH OVER THE WARNER
MOUNTAINS OF 62 INCHES PER DISMAL SWAMP SNOTEL...AND FORECAST SNOW
LEVELS OF 9500 FEET...THIS DEFINITELY PROVIDES THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAPID SNOW MELT AND FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SISKIYOU COUNTY...MODOC...EXTREME EASTERN
KLAMATH...AND MOST OF LAKE COUNTY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE TOP 10 PERCENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ALSO SUPPORT THE FFA
AREA. THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS HAZARD AREA ARE LESS LIKELY TO
SEE ANY HEAVY RAIN PROBLEMS BUT HAVE LEFT THE AREA INTACT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ISSUANCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT HEAVY RAIN
LOCATIONS...AND WITH LATEST HRRR OUTPUT LINING UP PRETTY NICELY
WITH THE HAZARD AREA.

ADDITIONALLY...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER MODOC AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.
EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY ALSO FEATURES A CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FORECAST MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OF 2000+ J/KG, LI
VALUES -4 TO -6, AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30+KT.  STRONG
WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL A POSSIBILITY TODAY. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DAY SHOULD START OUT SUNNY IN MANY
PLACES EAST OF THE CASCADES...WHICH WILL YIELD UNINHIBITED SURFACE
HEATING AND POTENTIALLY MAX OUT THE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.

INSTABILITY DIMINISHES TONIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOW
SUIT. ON SATURDAY A DRYING AIR MASS WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL YIELD
SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS WHILE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
MODOC COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEST OF THE CASCADES. BY SUNDAY COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ELIMINATES THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER COULD BRING DRIZZLE
TO THE COAST.

ON MONDAY A WARM TREND BEGINS THAT WILL LAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AT LEAST...WITH TEMPERATURES MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A PORTION OF THE PREVIOUS LONG-TERM
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE
COAST TUESDAY WITH A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE COAST. THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS AFTER TUESDAY, BUT THE PATTERN
REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06/06Z TAF CYCLE...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THIS EVENING WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AND MORE LIKELY TO BE STRONG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS, AND HAIL. THE BEST CHANCE THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS...CASCADES AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY WITH A SECONDARY FOCUS OVER MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS
EAST OF THE CASCADES ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.

THERE WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS THIS MORNING WITH AREAS
OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO WIDESPREAD
VFR DURING LATE THIS MORNING BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING WILL ONCE AGAIN CREATE
AREAS OF MVFR WITH POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. -DW/CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT THU 5 MAY 2016...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REACH A PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN STEEP TO VERY STEEP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN FOR THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS THE MAJORITY BUT NOT ALL OF THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH WEEKEND WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO TREND WEAKER ON MONDAY AND
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH INTO WEDNESDAY. -DW/CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ030-031.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ022.

CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CAZ080>085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

NSK/MAP/CC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 1141 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MILDER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT ENTERS MY NWRN ZONES. THERE ARE EVEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES FROM JUST NORTH
OF PITTSBURGH DOWN INTO SERN OHIO. THESE MAY JUST CLIP MY SWRN
ZONES SO THERE IS A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WELL BEFORE
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND AN INCREASING NW
BREEZE IN THE 08-12Z PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
STRONG DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND GENERALLY WEAK SFC-850 MB COLD
ADVECTION WILL BRING DRIER AIR BUT QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY.

SOME INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH UNDER THE LOWER
HEIGHTS AND BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG 130-140 KT
300 MB JET MAX.

DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CREATE
MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES. WILL HOLD ONTO THE 20-30 POPS IN THE
NORTHERN TIER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH NIL POPS FURTHER SOUTH.

THERE WILL BE AN APPROX 10 MB PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE IN
THE MORNING AND THEN MIXING UP TO 5-6KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
MIXING WILL TAP HIGHER WINDS AT CLOUD LEVEL AND SHOULD LEAD TO
GUSTS INTO THE 20S OR EVEN NEAR 30MPH ON THE HIGHER RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW PWAT AIR SLIDES OVER THE STATE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR TOO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY LOW
TEMPS EARLY MONDAY - IN THE 30S AND 40S. PATCHY LIGHT FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS 05-12Z MONDAY.

THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP TO FORM/ADVECT A WARM
FRONT NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY EVENING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN MTNS OF THE STATE...AND WILL PERSIST
AT ABOUT THE SAME AREAL COVERAGE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CHC FOR
SHOWERS (AND SCATTERED TSRA) INCREASES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS SWRLY LLJ TRANSPORTS BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.

CHC FOR PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA WILL PEAK
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BEFORE THE SFC FRONT BEGINS TO OCCLUDE
AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL.

LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND...NRN STREAM ENERGY WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME JETLETS TO ITS SOUTH WILL BRING LOW CHCS FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA. TEMPS WILL START OUT
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM AIR INTO AND JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO NW PA AT 0330Z. SCT -SHRA IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WILL WORK INTO CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND NOT CAUSE ANY VIS RESTRICTIONS.

MAIN CONCERN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW CIGS AT KBFD/KJST JUST BEHIND FRONT...WHERE LOW LVL
MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH AND NW FLOW ASCENDS THE MTNS.
LATEST SREF AND HRRR HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY...ROUGHLY BTWN
06Z-10Z AT KBFD AND BTWN 07Z-11Z AT KJST. FURTHER EAST...THE CHC
OF IFR CIGS APPEARS VERY LOW...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE ASSOC WITH FROPA DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS.

GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY...AS STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS MIXING THE SFC IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. MDL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WINDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-14Z WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO NR 25KTS THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED-THU...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY WESTERN PA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
MECHANICAL PROBLEM WITH KCCX FORCED IT INTO STANDBY MODE EARLY
THIS MORNING. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED. RETURN TO SERVICE WILL
DEPEND ON WHEN THE PARTS ARRIVE EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
EQUIPMENT...




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 1047 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MILDER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT ENTERS MY NWRN ZONES. THERE ARE EVEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES FROM JUST NORTH
OF PITTSBURGH DOWN INTO SERN OHIO. THESE MAY JUST CLIP MY SWRN
ZONES SO THERE IS A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WELL BEFORE
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND AN INCREASING NW
BREEZE IN THE 08-12Z PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
STRONG DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND GENERALLY WEAK SFC-850 MB COLD
ADVECTION WILL BRING DRIER AIR BUT QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY.

SOME INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH UNDER THE LOWER
HEIGHTS AND BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG 130-140 KT
300 MB JET MAX.

DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CREATE
MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES. WILL HOLD ONTO THE 20-30 POPS IN THE
NORTHERN TIER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH NIL POPS FURTHER SOUTH.

THERE WILL BE AN APPROX 10 MB PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE IN
THE MORNING AND THEN MIXING UP TO 5-6KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
MIXING WILL TAP HIGHER WINDS AT CLOUD LEVEL AND SHOULD LEAD TO
GUSTS INTO THE 20S OR EVEN NEAR 30MPH ON THE HIGHER RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW PWAT AIR SLIDES OVER THE STATE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR TOO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY LOW
TEMPS EARLY MONDAY - IN THE 30S AND 40S. PATCHY LIGHT FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS 05-12Z MONDAY.

THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP TO FORM/ADVECT A WARM
FRONT NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY EVENING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN MTNS OF THE STATE...AND WILL PERSIST
AT ABOUT THE SAME AREAL COVERAGE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CHC FOR
SHOWERS (AND SCATTERED TSRA) INCREASES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS SWRLY LLJ TRANSPORTS BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.

CHC FOR PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA WILL PEAK
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BEFORE THE SFC FRONT BEGINS TO OCCLUDE
AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL.

LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND...NRN STREAM ENERGY WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME JETLETS TO ITS SOUTH WILL BRING LOW CHCS FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA. TEMPS WILL START OUT
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM AIR INTO AND JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER LK ERIE AT 00Z. SCT -SHRA IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT WILL WORK INTO CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...NO
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THRU LATE EVENING DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE
SFC-2KM LAYER.

MAIN CONCERN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW CIGS AT KBFD/KJST JUST BEHIND FRONT...WHERE LOW LVL
MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH AND NW FLOW ASCENDS THE MTNS.
LATEST SREF AND HRRR HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY...ROUGHLY BTWN
06Z-10Z AT KBFD AND BTWN 07Z-11Z AT KJST. FURTHER EAST...THE CHC
OF IFR CIGS APPEARS VERY LOW...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT KAOO/KUNV/KIPT.

GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY...AS STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS MIXING THE SFC IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. MDL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WINDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-14Z WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO NR 25KTS THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED-THU...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY WESTERN PA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
MECHANICAL PROBLEM WITH KCCX FORCED IT INTO STANDBY MODE EARLY
THIS MORNING. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED. RETURN TO SERVICE WILL
DEPEND ON WHEN THE PARTS ARRIVE EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
EQUIPMENT...




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 802 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
THIS FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MILD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL RIDGE-VALLEY REGION IN AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY SO THE
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF THE RAIN AS IT
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LEADS TO POPS THAT ARE FAIRLY
HIGH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST...BUT ACTUAL QPF WILL ONLY BE ON
THE ORDER OF ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WELL BEFORE
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND AN INCREASING NW
BREEZE IN THE 08-12Z PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
STRONG DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND GENERALLY WEAK SFC-850 MB COLD
ADVECTION WILL BRING DRIER AIR BUT QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY.

SOME INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH UNDER THE LOWER
HEIGHTS AND BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG 130-140 KT
300 MB JET MAX.

DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CREATE
MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES. WILL HOLD ONTO THE 20-30 POPS IN THE
NORTHERN TIER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH NIL POPS FURTHER SOUTH.

THERE WILL BE AN APPROX 10 MB PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE IN
THE MORNING AND THEN MIXING UP TO 5-6KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
MIXING WILL TAP HIGHER WINDS AT CLOUD LEVEL AND SHOULD LEAD TO
GUSTS INTO THE 20S OR EVEN NEAR 30MPH ON THE HIGHER RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW PWAT AIR SLIDES OVER THE STATE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR TOO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY LOW
TEMPS EARLY MONDAY - IN THE 30S AND 40S. PATCHY LIGHT FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS 05-12Z MONDAY.

THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP TO FORM/ADVECT A WARM
FRONT NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY EVENING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN MTNS OF THE STATE...AND WILL PERSIST
AT ABOUT THE SAME AREAL COVERAGE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CHC FOR
SHOWERS (AND SCATTERED TSRA) INCREASES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS SWRLY LLJ TRANSPORTS BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.

CHC FOR PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA WILL PEAK
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BEFORE THE SFC FRONT BEGINS TO OCCLUDE
AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL.

LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND...NRN STREAM ENERGY WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME JETLETS TO ITS SOUTH WILL BRING LOW CHCS FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA. TEMPS WILL START OUT
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM AIR INTO AND JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER LK ERIE AT 00Z. SCT -SHRA IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT WILL WORK INTO CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...NO
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THRU LATE EVENING DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE
SFC-2KM LAYER.

MAIN CONCERN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW CIGS AT KBFD/KJST JUST BEHIND FRONT...WHERE LOW LVL
MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH AND NW FLOW ASCENDS THE MTNS.
LATEST SREF AND HRRR HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY...ROUGHLY BTWN
06Z-10Z AT KBFD AND BTWN 07Z-11Z AT KJST. FURTHER EAST...THE CHC
OF IFR CIGS APPEARS VERY LOW...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT KAOO/KUNV/KIPT.

GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY...AS STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS MIXING THE SFC IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. MDL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WINDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-14Z WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO NR 25KTS THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED-THU...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY WESTERN PA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
MECHANICAL PROBLEM WITH KCCX FORCED IT INTO STANDBY MODE EARLY
THIS MORNING. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED. RETURN TO SERVICE WILL
DEPEND ON WHEN THE PARTS ARRIVE EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
EQUIPMENT...




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 734 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
THIS FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MILD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL RIDGE-VALLEY REGION IN AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY SO THE
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF THE RAIN AS IT
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LEADS TO POPS THAT ARE FAIRLY
HIGH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST...BUT ACTUAL QPF WILL ONLY BE ON
THE ORDER OF ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WELL BEFORE
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND AN INCREASING NW
BREEZE IN THE 08-12Z PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
STRONG DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND GENERALLY WEAK SFC-850 MB COLD
ADVECTION WILL BRING DRIER AIR BUT QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY.

SOME INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH UNDER THE LOWER
HEIGHTS AND BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG 130-140 KT
300 MB JET MAX.

DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CREATE
MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES. WILL HOLD ONTO THE 20-30 POPS IN THE
NORTHERN TIER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH NIL POPS FURTHER SOUTH.

THERE WILL BE AN APPROX 10 MB PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE IN
THE MORNING AND THEN MIXING UP TO 5-6KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
MIXING WILL TAP HIGHER WINDS AT CLOUD LEVEL AND SHOULD LEAD TO
GUSTS INTO THE 20S OR EVEN NEAR 30MPH ON THE HIGHER RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW PWAT AIR SLIDES OVER THE STATE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR TOO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY LOW
TEMPS EARLY MONDAY - IN THE 30S AND 40S. PATCHY LIGHT FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS 05-12Z MONDAY.

THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP TO FORM/ADVECT A WARM
FRONT NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY EVENING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN MTNS OF THE STATE...AND WILL PERSIST
AT ABOUT THE SAME AREAL COVERAGE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CHC FOR
SHOWERS (AND SCATTERED TSRA) INCREASES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS SWRLY LLJ TRANSPORTS BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.

CHC FOR PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA WILL PEAK
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BEFORE THE SFC FRONT BEGINS TO OCCLUDE
AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL.

LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND...NRN STREAM ENERGY WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME JETLETS TO ITS SOUTH WILL BRING LOW CHCS FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA. TEMPS WILL START OUT
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM AIR INTO AND JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF LK ERIE AT 22Z. SCT
-SHRA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL WORK INTO CENTRAL PA THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THRU LATE EVENING DUE
TO DRY AIR IN THE SFC-2KM LAYER.

MAIN CONCERN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW CIGS AT KBFD/KJST JUST BEHIND FRONT...WHERE LOW LVL
MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH AND NW FLOW ASCENDS THE MTNS.
LATEST SREF AND HRRR HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY...ROUGHLY BTWN
06Z-10Z AT KBFD AND BTWN 07Z-11Z AT KJST. FURTHER EAST...THE CHC
OF IFR CIGS APPEARS VERY LOW...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT KAOO/KUNV/KIPT.

GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY...AS STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS MIXING THE SFC IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. MDL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WINDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-14Z WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO NR 25KTS THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY

MON-THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT A GENERAL INCREASING CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA TUE-THU.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
MECHANICAL PROBLEM WITH KCCX FORCED IT INTO STANDBY MODE EARLY
THIS MORNING. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED. RETURN TO SERVICE WILL
DEPEND ON WHEN THE PARTS ARRIVE EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
EQUIPMENT...LA CORTE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 607 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MOTHERS DAY LOOKS
MAINLY DRY FOLLOWED BY A MODEST WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MAIN BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL PA ATTM.
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVE HOURS BEFORE TAPERING
OFF TO DRIZZLE MOST PLACES. DRIZZLE ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS SFC LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE TONIGHT BEFORE FILLING AND GETTING KICKED OUT TO SEA BY
AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WNW ON SAT. THERE MIGHT BE
A LULL IN THE PRECIP ON SAT IN BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS.

THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MANAGE TO NUDGE SOME SEASONABLY MILD AIR
IN FROM THE SW. MAXES SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD
HELP GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY AND CAPE...ALLOWING CONVECTION TO
FORM ALONG AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW/FRONT. WILL JUST MENTION
SOME TS IN THE LATE AFTN IN THE W AND CARRY IT INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS FOR THE FIRST PART OF SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.
AGAIN...MOISTURE STILL LACKING AND THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL TO A RELATIVE MINIMUM. LITTLE/NO RISK
FOR BOTH SEVERE AND FLOODING. THE 8H TEMPS FROM 10-12C DOWN TO
AROUND A FEW DEGS EITHER SIDE OF 0C BY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODERATELY STRONG LLVL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING GUSTY NW WINDS
(PEAK GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS) WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

SFC RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW PWAT AIR SLIDES OVER THE STATE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR TOO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY LOW
TEMPS EARLY MONDAY - IN THE 30S AND 40S. PATCHY LIGHT FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS 05-12Z MONDAY.

THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP TO FORM/ADVECT A WARM
FRONT NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN MTNS OF THE
STATE...AND WILL PERSIST AT ABOUT THE SAME AREAL COVERAGE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CHC FOR SHOWERS (AND SCATTERED TSRA) INCREASES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SWRLY LLJ TRANSPORTS BETTER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.

CHC FOR PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA WILL PEAK
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BEFORE THE SFC FRONT BEGINS TO OCCLUDE
AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL.

LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND...NRN STREAM ENERGY WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME JETLETS TO ITS SOUTH WILL BRING LOW CHCS FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA. TEMPS WILL START OUT
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM INTO...OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OVR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT...CAUSING RAIN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
HOWEVER...STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND CIGS SHOULD FALL
OVERNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS. VFR CIG STILL NOTED AT KBFD AS OF
22Z...BUT MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DROP TO MVFR BY 00Z. BOTH SREF
AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AT
KMDT/KLNS...POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KJST/KUNV AND UNLIKELY AT KIPT.

REMNANTS OF LOW PRES WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA AND RESIDUAL STRATUS
DECK WILL LIKELY LIFT/BREAK UP BY AFTN DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING. BOTH MOS AND SREF SUPPORT THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDS BY SAT AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION SAT
EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA AND POSSIBLE BRIEF VIS
REDUCTIONS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY-TUESDAY

SUN-MON...VFR/NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

TUE-WED...CHC OF SHOWERS/MVFR PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/GARTNER




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

 150 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS A
DEEP UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST TO
OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH ON MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EXPANDS
AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS IS ENCOUNTERING WET BULB PROFILES JUST COLD
ENOUGH ABOVE ABOUT 4000 FEET TO CHANGE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE OVER TO SNOW. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MODEL HINTS OF SLIGHT WARMING
OVERNIGHT...IF ALL OR MOST OF THE IMPENDING QPF IS PREDOMINATELY
SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ENOUGH ACCUMULATION SHOULD DEVELOP
FOR SLIPPERY ROADWAYS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS TO MANIFEST THEMSELVES.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AVERY AND MITCHELL
COUNTIES ABOVE 3500 FEET AT THIS POINT. THE ELEVATION DEPENDENCE
WILL BE STRONG...WITH MAINLY RAIN BELOW 3500 FEET...ABOUT AN INCH AT
3500 FEET RANGING UP TO SIX INCHES ABOVE 5000 FEET.

OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THE 546 DM LOW CENTER HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CLT METRO
AREA. MOISTURE AND SPOKES OF 500 MB VORTICITY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY HIGH COVERAGE OF LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT
4000 FEET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT TIMES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
SOME WARMING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH
SPOTTIER IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS WITH MAINLY PERIODS OF CLOUDS. THE LOW
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THE
BEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE TO OUR EAST. THE SETUP WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR ON FRIDAY...AS THE LOW REMAINS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLIGHTLY POORER WITH THE
BETTER COLD AIR OFF TO THE EAST...BUT TEMPS/DEWPTS REBOUND BY 5-7
DEGREES...AND THESE SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY WILL REDEVELOP. CHANCES
OVERALL ARE LESSER WITH MODEL QPF BEING LESS WIDESPREAD. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT WITH DEEP MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...ONE MORE POCKET OF COLD AIR ROTATES AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WARMER MID
LEVEL AIR MOVES IN ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO KEEP ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THERE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT TRAILING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRUSH THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY CREATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. FINALLY...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW MOVES EAST.
SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY EVEN AS HEIGHTS RISE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR. TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS ON SATURDAY THEN RISE TO NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED W TO E ACROSS THE REGION
UNDERNEATH FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.  THE BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SARGASSO SEA
INDUCES WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND TO GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.  DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S DURING THIS TIME AS WELL AND
WITH THE INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  THE ECMWF REMAINS LESS
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT COVERAGE THROUGH MID-WEEK WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON.  THIS APPEARS
LARGELY TO BE THE RESULT OF STRONGER PERTURBATIONS IN THE WSW FLOW
ALOFT ENHANCING OVERALL FORCING IN THE GFS COMPARED TO THE FAIRLY
BENIGN ECMWF SOLUTION. THE FORECAST THEREFORE REFLECTS A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE AS THE PATTERN CERTAINLY WARRANTS SLIGHT CHANCE
COVERAGE EAST AND CHANCE COVERAGE WEST.

AN OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DROPS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS AND A FEW LOBES OF
VORTICITY ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS AND INTO VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS NATURE OF THIS PATTERN...AGAIN THE GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW. WHILE POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO LATE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE
ANTICIPATED BETTER FORCING ALOFT...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
WARRANT MORE AGGRESSIVE COVERAGE ATTM.  FOR NOW...THESE FEATURES DO
LITTLE TO CHANGE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE EXPECT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...STILL SEEING SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ACROSS THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. INCREASING
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WILL HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT...THOUGH EXPECT
SOME LINGERING VCSH OR -SHRA FOR A FEW HOURS STILL. BEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS REMAINS AT KHKY BUT FOR THE MOST PART EVERYONE SHOULD BE
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY CHANCES DO NOT QUITE
SUPPORT PROB30...BUT WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE 12Z TAFS. OTHERWISE...
CONTINUED DEEP MIXING WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY N/NNW WINDS TODAY...WITH PEAK GUSTS 20-30KT
ESPECIALLY TOWARD KAVL.


OUTLOOK...DRYING WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLY APPROACHING KAVL TO KHKY BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS. WARMING
CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN TO SW FLOW ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  94%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ033-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG/JMP
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...TDP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

 306 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

WEAK SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE A
TOUGH CALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HUMIDITY TIME
SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BELOW ABOUT 750MB...WITH OBVIOUSLY WELL MIXED CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON ADDING TO THE DRYNESS. THE
FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT THIS
EVENING THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF PURE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE
WIND SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK HOWEVER...NOTED WITH 30 KNOTS AT 925MB AND
ONLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT 700MB. INTERESTINGLY...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE I
90 AND HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDORS. THE HIGHWAY 14 CONVECTION WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER
THE I 90 CONVECTION IS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AM SKEPTICAL ABOUT
THE I 90 CONVECTION DEVELOPING SO EARLY...AS IT IS LIKELY KEYING OFF
OF THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. INDEED...THE HRRR IS TRYING TO SHOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING RIGHT NOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND THERE IS
NOTHING THERE. IT IS THAT CONVECTION WHICH IT THEN EXTENDS EASTWARD
ALONG I 90. SO FOR NOW ADDED ONLY VERY LOW POPS TO THE I 90 CORRIDOR
VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
HRRR SCENARIO...AND KEPT THE HIGHER SCATTERED POPS IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL FRONT. CHANCE OR SCATTERED POPS SHOULD
THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN CHANCES ARE
FAIRLY SKITTISH AT ANY GIVEN POINT LOCATION THAT YOU WILL ACTUALLY
GET WET. IN ADDITION...STABILITY INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE
POINT WHERE BY SATURDAY...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY
LEFT IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SMALL POPS LINGER UNDER A MID DECK
OF CLOUDS.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LATEST LOWS ARE LITTLE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS...WITH UPPER 40S IN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES...TO NEAR 55 IN
SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE IA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER...
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT CHANCES NOT REAL HIGH. EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN BUT BE OFFSET A BIT BY CLOUD COVER AT NIGHT.
LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 40S...CLOSER TO 40 ALONG HIGHWAY 14 AND
CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
THICKER CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE
MID 60S...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 14.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTH SO SUSPECT THAT THIS WILL BE THE
PERIOD OF TIME FOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS TIME NOT ENOUGH SHEAR OR INSTABILITY TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER BUT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.
DIURNAL RANGE NOT TOO WIDE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON MONDAY.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP TROUGHING IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL SPELL COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WHILE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE DEEPER TROUGH IS FAIRLY
HIGH...CONFIDENCE ON THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF ENERGY ARE LOWER THUS
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH. THERE
SHOULD BE A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS TIME JUST A PROBLEM OF TIMING. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS ONLY A
SHOWERS MENTION AND START ADDING IN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK
ABOUT...PRETTY MUCH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. OVERALL
NOT A REAL NICE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR MID MAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY...THEN
NORTHEAST DIRECTION. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TSRA WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AT THIS TIME WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TAF SITES
WITH THE CHANCES BEING TOO SPARSE.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 623 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ARE CREATING A NW FLOW OVER MIDDLE TN. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE INITIATING DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRETCHING
FROM NRN MO BACK TO SD. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO FIRE ACROSS
MO/IL AND TRACK SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING CENTRAL KY AND POSSIBLY
NRN/NERN MIDDLE TN TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT OVERNIGHT AND
THE HRRR SHOWS MORE CONVECTION TRACKING ACROSS OUR NERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS A RESULT. BUT GIVEN OUR DRY WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC
WOULD THINK MOST ACTIVITY WOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST...POSSIBLY CLIPPING A FEW OF OUR NERN COUNTIES. KEPT SLIGHT
CHC POPS OVERNIGHT AND ALL OTHER AREAS DRY.

A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS BEGINS TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST
ON SUNDAY...PUSHING THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OVERHEAD AND KEEPING
US MOSTLY DRY UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. WITH RETURN FLOW ON SUNDAY...DO
NOT SEE ANY REASON TO NOT GO MID 80S FOR HIGHS SO WILL BUMP THOSE
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR SUNDAY UP A FEW DEGREES. THAT FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AROUND...BUT
STILL THINK LOW 80S FOR HIGHS ON AVERAGE WILL BE MET.

THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL TRACK TOWARDS
THE DAKOTAS...SWINGING A LOBE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY
MON NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS WRN
TN...MAYBE CLIPPING AREAS OF MIDDLE TN ALONG AND WEST OF I-65.
FORECAST SFC CAPE IS FAIR BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GOOD
(40-50KT). IF SFC CAPE IS REALIZED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...LOOKS
LIKE A DECENT SHOT AT STRONG-SEVERE STORMS. THE FORCING GETS MESSY
ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE ENVIRONMENT STAYS UNSTABLE SO MAY HAVE A
STRONG-SEVERE STORM THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WITHOUT A
STRONG FORCING MECHANISM OVERHEAD OTHER THAN HEATING OF THE
DAY...WILL JUST KEEP CHC POPS AROUND. ON THURSDAY A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE PAC
NW PUSHES THROUGH MIDDLE TN. THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER CHC FOR
POSSIBLE STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WITH THE FROPA THURSDAY BUT THAT
WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HEATING OF
THE DAY. SHOULD BE DRY BEHIND THAT FRONT WITH TEMPS STAYING MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE EVENING TAFS IS POTENTIAL FOR TSRA WITH
COMPLEX COMING OUT OF IL INTO KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RECENT
HRRR MODEL RUNS INDICATE SOME OF TSRA POSSIBLY REACHING THE MID TN
TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY CSV. THE AIR REMAINS
QUITE DRY OVER MID TN...AND WILL BE INCREASINGLY STABLE...SO TSRA
WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. UPSTREAM TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED. THERE IS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT ACROSS
MUCH OF KY. OTHERWISE...WSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A FEW
GUSTS OVER 15KT THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER 06Z...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL STAY MOSTLY 10KT OR LESS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH VFR.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........13
LONG TERM..................31




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 352 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WARMER AIR WILL START TO WORK INTO THE REGION WITH A WARMING TREND
AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OUR CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...

UPPER AND SFC LOW PRESENTLY NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS SPARKING SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE REGION.
THESE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A LITTLE BIT BETTER ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY ROLLING THROUGH IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SMALL BASED ON LATEST HRRR
WHICH SHOWS MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH.

DESPITE RECENT RAINS...ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS ASIDE FROM THE CURRENT AND FORECAST RIVER
FLOODING ALONG AND NEAR THE DAN RIVER.

GIVEN ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE...FOG COULD BECOME A CONCERN
THIS EVENING...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO CAUSE ENOUGH
MIXING TO KEEP IT FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PASSING LOW AND A
SECOND ONE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL INDUCE SOME
STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW...HOWEVER NOTHING ABOVE 35 MPH ARE FORECAST.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...SHOWERS SHOULD FIRE
UP IN THE REGION...PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AT THE
TIME THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT LITTLE MORE BEYOND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS EXPECTED. AGAIN...EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS.

NIGHT TIME LOWS SHOULD BE SEASONAL IN THE MID TO HIGH 40S...AND
TOMORROWS HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO TREND BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL AND WILL
BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO SOME SHALLOW RIDGING
AND EVENTUALLY SET UP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING THE
MODERATING TREND TO CONTINUE IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO AS
THE FRONT INITIALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ENHANCE AND CREATE QUITE GUSTY CONDITIONS INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 80 DEGREES EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND GENERALLY IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE TO THE
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN TRANSITORY AND TRANSITION FROM A SHALLOW
RIDGE TO A PROGRESSIVE QUASI ZONAL REGIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH
AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S EAST TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S WEST WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CREATED POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST.
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO FORM UP IN THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AT PEAK HEATING. BASED ON HRRR GUIDANCE...ROA/LYH/DAN WILL
SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOWEVER
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR. OTHER LOCATIONS...CURRENTLY
FORECAST FOR VICINITY SHOWERS DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE.

FOG WAS CONSIDERED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD
OCCUR TO ELIMINATE THAT THREAT. LYH AND DAN APPEAR TO BE AT MOST
THREAT BUT WAS LEFT OUT FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

WINDS ARE CURRENTLY A BIT GUSTY AND PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. THESE SHOULD CALM DOWN WITH SUNSET BUT SHOULD
BEGIN AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE. LYH SHOULD BE SPARED FROM THIS DUE TO
TOPOGRAPHY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

MAINLY VFR INTO SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE
ARRIVE SAT NIGHT-SUN WHICH COULD BRING SUB VFR WEATHER TO THE
AREA...MAINLY BCB/BLF/LWB.

MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THOUGH WARM
FRONT MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS. WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE
WITH THOSE OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...JR/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JR/WP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 132 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE NC/VA COAST THIS MORNING NORTH TO PA/NJ
BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY THEN
MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 916 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND REACH THE
JERSEY SHORE ON SATURDAY MORNING. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH
LATEST OBS AND LEANED LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE
LAV GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
DECREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING WITH MORNING RADAR TRENDS AND
SHAPED LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON POPS TOWARDS RNK WRFARW
SOLUTION. HAVE A GOOD DAY !


AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY...

LOOKING AT MAINLY HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

SYSTEM OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF MARYLAND AND NEW JERSEY THIS
AFTERNOON.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SFC
LOW EAST OF THE TIDEWATER OF VA WILL KEEP AN AXIS OF STEADIER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE FURTHER WEST. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE/VORT ROUNDING THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH
NW FLOW IN THE LOW LVLS SHOULD ENHANCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WV
MTNS AS WELL...WITH THE LOWER THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS PER MODELS/WPC SUGGEST ANOTHER ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN THE EAST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IF DEEPER CONVECTION CAN GET GOING...WHILE THE WEST WILL SEE ANOTHER
QUARTER INCH OR LESS...WITH AGAIN HIGHER AMOUNTS MORE OVER SE WV
LATER TODAY.

AS FAR AS FLOOD CONCERNS GO...IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
WATCH...BUT GIVEN RAINFALL IN THE LOWER DAN RIVER BASIN...THE DAN AT
SOUTH BOSTON WILL REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATER BY DAWN TODAY...THEN
DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT. FLOOD WARNING ALREADY ISSUED FOR
THIS AREA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RANDOLPH ON THE ROANOKE RIVER AND A
FEW SURROUNDING STREAMS AND RIVERS THRU THE DAY.

AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST AND UPPER LOW MOVE NORTHWARD MODELS ARE
INDICATING SHARPER PRESSURE GRADIENT SITUATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BUT NOTHING OVER 35 MPH SHOULD
OCCUR. WITH THE COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER RIDGES...THE
WINDS WILL ADD A NIP IN THE AIR.

SPEAKING OF WHICH WILL SEE THE COLDER POCKET OF AIR MOVE EAST...SO
ANY SNOW ACROSS THE NC HIGH COUNTRY INTO FAR SW VA SHOULD BE GONE BY
MID MORNING.

SOME SUNSHINE COULD WORK INTO THE NC/VA FOOTHILLS BY MID AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TO LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER ERN PA/NJ. SHOULD BECOME DRIER
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING IN THE SOUTH
AND WEST. SOME FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE WET
GROUND...THOUGH WINDS MAY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
WIDESPREAD EVENT. LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH LOWER TO MID 40S
WEST...TO MID TO UPPER 40S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT PLENTY OF COOL AND WET
WEATHER TO OUR REGION WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH/LOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE
THE KICKER THAT GETS THE CLOSED LOW MOVING. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS OF THIS CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH OUR REGION BY
SATURDAY EVENING.

SHOWERS WILL STILL BE IN OUR FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. AFTER A SMALL
BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY SATURDAY MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE CANADIAN
SYSTEM. ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR WEST.
LIMITED...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED
TO STALL OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HEADING INTO SUNDAY...WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHAT REMAINS OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY HEAD NORTH THROUGH THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL START TO TAP GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE AND ADVECT IN OUR WAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN IN OUR FORECAST...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
MILDER AND BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD. ON
WEDNESDAY...OUR AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A WAVY WARM
FRONT TO THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION
GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AS SEEN IN THE LIS IS TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHEAST. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGIONS AND SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO MIDWEEK. THEN...BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...A COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CREATED POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST.
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO FORM UP IN THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AT PEAK HEATING. BASED ON HRRR GUIDANCE...ROA/LYH/DAN WILL
SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOWEVER
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR. OTHER LOCATIONS...CURRENTLY
FORECAST FOR VICINITY SHOWERS DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE.

FOG WAS CONSIDERED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD
OCCUR TO ELIMINATE THAT THREAT. LYH AND DAN APPEAR TO BE AT MOST
THREAT BUT WAS LEFT OUT FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

WINDS ARE CURRENTLY A BIT GUSTY AND PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. THESE SHOULD CALM DOWN WITH SUNSET BUT SHOULD
BEGIN AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE. LYH SHOULD BE SPARED FROM THIS DUE TO
TOPOGRAPHY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

MAINLY VFR INTO SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE
ARRIVE SAT NIGHT-SUN WHICH COULD BRING SUB VFR WEATHER TO THE
AREA...MAINLY BCB/BLF/LWB.

MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THOUGH WARM
FRONT MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS. WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE
WITH THOSE OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...JR/WP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

 207 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
WEAK FRONT WILL BRING MARINE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
DROP MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING
BACK OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE S
CA COAST...WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING TROUGH AXIS RUNNING ROUGHLY
UP THE PACIFIC NW COAST. MODELS CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS TREND OF
INDICATING THE LOW MOVING SLOWLY E AND THEN NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE DESERT SW. WHILE SURFACE PRES GRADIENTS REMAINED ONSHORE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRI MORNING...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOVE
THE SURFACE WAS OFFSHORE OUT OF THE NE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN DRYING
OVER THE AIR MASS AT LOW LEVELS...WITH LITTLE INDICATION IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF ANY MARINE CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA IN THIS PATTERN FOR ANY LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING WOULD BE ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST...SO WILL LEAVE A MENTION FOR CLOUDS AND FOG IN THIS
MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN HINTING AT SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY OVER
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MOST MODEL QPF FIELDS
GENERALLY INDICATE ANY THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED SE
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE INCREASINGLY EASTERLY MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TODAY WILL HANG ON TO A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE S PART OF THE CASCADES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE E AND A SW TO NE ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE SINKS DOWN OVER THE
REGION SAT. SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS AGAIN FRI AND
SAT.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A EITHER A WEAK COLD
FRONT OR A STRONG NW MARINE PUSH...YOU DECIDE. EITHER WAY DEEP
MARINE MOISTURE MOVES IN SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS NW BEHIND
A SHORTWAVE CUTTING ACROSS WA. WITH SOME DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP IN CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE MOVING IN SAT NIGHT...THEN
SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MORNING SUN. COOLER
TEMPS ALSO IN STORE...AND MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY WITH THE
MARINE AIR MASS.
&&

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NW MON IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE COOLER AIR AND MARINE CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH
MON MORNING. GENERAL TREND WITH MODELS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
HAS HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER THE REGION AS AN OFFSHORE RIDGE NUDGES
EASTWARD. WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH EXPECTED TO BUILD UP ALONG
THE OREGON COAST TUE THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
BRINGING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEK. BY THU GFS AND EC AGREE ON H8 TEMPS REACHING 15 TO 16 DEG
C...WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 80S IN THE
INLAND VALLEYS. WARMEST TEMPS ON THE COAST HOWEVER APPEAR LIKELY TO
COME ON WED...AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS LATER IN THE WEEK WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS MOVING INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE BOARD EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCALIZED LOW-END MVFR OR HIGH-END IFR CIGS ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THROUGH 16Z OR SO. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS BETWEEN KCVO AND KEUG 12Z TO 16Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SAT. NORTH WIND GUSTS 20-30 KT ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI EVENING. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PRIMARY
MARINE ISSUE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT WIND ADVISORY TIMING. 00Z NAM AND
GFS SHOW WIND SPEEDS EASING JUST A BIT FRI MORNING...BUT
INCREASING AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTER WATERS WILL REMAIN IN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SAT
EVENING...IF NOT A LITTLE LONGER. 00Z NAM SHOWS 30 KT BOUNDARY
LAYER SUSTAINED SPEEDS OVER PZZ275 FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH 975MB SPEEDS PUSHING 40 KT. CONTEMPLATED GOING WITH
A GALE WARNING FOR PZZ275...BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN UPPER-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS.

INNER WATERS GET COMPLICATED. WENT WITH A NEW SMALL CRAFT WIND
ADVISORY FOR PZZ255 18Z THIS MORNING THROUGH 09Z SAT. EXPECT GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT. NORTHERN INNER WATERS...PZZ250...SHOULD SEE WIND
SPEEDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
ENDING A LITTLE SOONER THAN PZZ255.

COLD FRONT...OR MORE LIKE A STRONG MARINE SURGE...OCCURS
SUN...WHICH WILL TURN THE WIND MORE OUT OF THE NW. STRONGEST
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NRN OUTER WATERS SUN. WIND SPEEDS
FINALLY FALL BELOW 20 KT MON...AND SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHEAST MON
NIGHT AS A THERMALLY-INDUCED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE
COASTLINE.

WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL CONTINUE THE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH SQUARE
SEAS AT TIMES. HIGHEST SEAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN
PZZ275 WHERE WIND-WAVES UP TO 8 FT ARE LIKELY. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 7 AM
     PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1055 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Most of the Inland NW will see dry and mild conditions Friday
through the weekend. However breezy to locally windy conditions
are expected at times...especially Sunday afternoon and evening as
a strong cold front passes through. Cooler and unsettled weather
is expected on Monday before a warming trend begins again for the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Large closed low moving towards the southern California
coast tonight continues to pump moisture up from the south into
southeast Washington into the south Idaho Panhandle. Storms
earlier this evening over NE Oregon have moved into the Blue
Mountains, Camas Prairie, and Lewiston area as of 945 pm, with
another cell between St. Maries and Clarkia. Yet another batch of
storms is approaching Kamiah. The forecast for tonight has been
updated based on current radar and lightning trends. The NAM shows
most unstable CAPE values of 200-500 J/KG persisting into the
overnight hours in these areas and thus a chance of thunderstorms
was extended into the overnight hours. Elsewhere drier north-
northeast flow in the lower levels as well as more stability in
the mid levels should keep dry conditions persisting into the
overnight hours. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue tonight
over far SE Washington into the south Idaho Panhandle. This will
moisten the boundary layer and could led to areas of stratus by
sunrise near KPUW/KLWS. But for now kept prevailing conditions
MVFR due to only light rain amounts near KPUW/KLWS with the best
chance of stratus east of these TAF sites. Otherwise a tight
northerly pressure gradient develops tonight which will result in
increasing north- northeast winds especially at KMWH/KCOE by
Friday morning. Friday afternoon the best chance of thunderstorms
will be over the mountains near Lewiston as the increasing north-
northeast winds helps dry out the lower level air mass over much
of Central and Northeast Washington into the north Idaho
Panhandle. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  77  54  81  55  76 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  76  50  81  52  75 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Pullman        49  75  49  78  51  72 /  50  10  10  10   0  10
Lewiston       53  81  54  83  56  78 /  50  20  10  10  10  10
Colville       45  81  47  85  48  80 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      47  74  44  79  46  73 /  20  10  10   0   0  20
Kellogg        45  73  44  79  46  72 /  50  10  10  10   0  20
Moses Lake     52  83  53  86  52  80 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  82  57  86  58  77 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  81  53  85  52  79 /  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
958 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly across
southeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle this evening. Some
storms will be capable of heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds.
Improving but breezy conditions will begin on Friday, lasting
through the weekend. More unsettled and cooler weather is expected
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Large closed low moving towards the southern California
coast tonight continues to pump moisture up from the south into
southeast Washington into the south Idaho Panhandle. Storms
earlier this evening over NE Oregon have moved into the Blue
Mountains, Camas Prairie, and Lewiston area as of 945 pm, with
another cell between St. Maries and Clarkia. Yet another batch of
storms is approaching Kamiah. The forecast for tonight has been
updated based on current radar and lightning trends. The NAM shows
most unstable CAPE values of 200-500 J/KG persisting into the
overnight hours in these areas and thus a chance of thunderstorms
was extended into the overnight hours. Elsewhere drier north-
northeast flow in the lower levels as well as more stability in
the mid levels should keep dry conditions persisting into the
overnight hours. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Main aviation concern is the potential for thunderstorms
mainly over southeast Washington and the south Idaho Panhandle
this evening which could impact the KLWS/KPUW TAF sites. Thus far
the storms are weakening as they come off the Blue Mountains and
the HRRR shows storms weakening this evening as they approach the
KLWS/KPUW TAF sites. Thus for now confidence is only low to
moderate of these sites being impacted and thus thunder was
removed for now. However will be monitoring radar trends.
Otherwise a tight northerly pressure gradient develops tonight
which will result in increasing north-northeast winds especially at
KMWH/KCOE by Friday morning. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  77  54  81  55  76 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  76  50  81  52  75 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Pullman        49  75  49  78  51  72 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Lewiston       53  81  54  83  56  78 /  50  20  10  10  10  10
Colville       45  81  47  85  48  80 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      47  74  44  79  46  73 /  20  10  10   0   0  20
Kellogg        45  73  44  79  46  72 /  50  10  10  10   0  20
Moses Lake     52  83  53  86  52  80 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  82  57  86  58  77 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  81  53  85  52  79 /  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 340 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH ALL THE WARM AIR OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST LEANED INTO WISCONSIN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN
THROUGH WI OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR SOUTHEAST WI BY MID SATURDAY MORNING.
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN
WI LATE TONIGHT.

THERE ARE TWO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE HRRR MODEL... AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
OTHER MESO MODELS... IS MORE ROBUST ON THE IDEA OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
FOCUS IT ALONG THE FRONT. KEPT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE SCENARIOS.

THE HRRR SOLUTION SHOWS SHOWERS/STORMS IN SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 05Z
AND 08Z. IT IS PICKING UP ON A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THETA-E
ADVECTION AND THE FOCUS OF THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET. THE NAM IS
SHOWING OVER 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHILE THE GFS HAS
MUCH LOWER VALUES. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS.

IF THE SHOWERS END UP DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT... LIKE
ALONG AND BEHIND IT... THEY WOULD AFFECT SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 11Z AND
17Z SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION.
MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIME...
SO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS GREATLY REDUCED.

CLOUDS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THEN DRY AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN AND LEAD TO SUNSHINE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S INLAND
BUT ONLY THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE LAKE DUE TO STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

MODELS SHOWING A MODERATE TO STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE IN THE
700 TO 500 MB LAYER THAT CROSSES SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY EVENING
WITH THE 700 MB COLD FRONT AS A SHORT WAVE SWEEPS ACROSS NE
WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AS MEAGER MOISTURE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MEANS NO MORE THAN SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...THAT STALLS OVER THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BETWEEN LARGE EASTERN CANADIAN VORTEX AND CLOSED
500 MB LOW...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME MODELS BRING QPF WITH 700 MB OMEGA
AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING IN BEFORE 12Z IN THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT ISENTROPIC FORECASTS SHOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA REMAIN SW
OF CWA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

NO REAL STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BUT EXPECTED
MODERATE NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL PRODUCE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S SATURDAY NIGHT.

DEEP MIXING WILL EASILY ALLOW SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL EVEN GET INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S IN THE LAKESIDE COUNTIES...BUT LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH SURFACE
HIGH SLIDING ACROSS STATE WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP MID-
LATE AFTERNOON.

.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE WITH CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE TO 850-700 MB WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION...ENHANCED BY
DIFFERENTIAL CVA WITH SHORT WAVE APPROACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
MONDAY EVENING. THOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW AS
SURFACE WARM FRONT GETS UP TO THE IL/WI BORDER MONDAY EVENING THEN
STALLS...ELEVATED CAPE VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT CLIMB TO
400-600J/KG SO DO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION AND EAST WINDS
LEAD TO CUTTING MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

PERIODIC SHOWERS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED
...ARE EXPECTED WITH THE ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN. MODELS SIMILAR
WITH FEATURES BUT DIFFER WITH TIMING AND POSITION. CANADIAN GEM
AND ECMWF HINT AT A BREAK IN THE PCPN CHANCES FOR A TIME ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS RAIN-FREE OVER SRN WI ON THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN EVERY PERIOD
THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION. THE CLOUDS
AND PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD... ALTHOUGH BRIEF
LOWER CATEGORIES WILL BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT INTO
MID SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AROUND 1 TO 3 AM. THERE IS
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND LESS OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG
THE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECT GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
SATURDAY MORNING... BUT THEY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WAVES WILL APPROACH 5 FEET FROM
MILWAUKEE AND SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WINDS
AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REM




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CHEYENNE WY

 542 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...FOR THE EARLY MORNING AVIATION FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

AN EXTREMELY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...FLASH FLOODING...AND
ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW. MORNING WATER VAPOR AND OBJECTIVE UPPER-
AIR ANALYSIS REVEAL AN IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK ENCOMPASSING VIRTUALLY
ALL OF THE LOWER 48. HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT EXPECT VERY SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US LOW GIVEN THE CURRENT LARGE SCALE
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ALREADY INCREASING OVER THE CWA THIS AM WITH
DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD. WE WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH SUN AS WE
HAVE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...BUT EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AFTERNOON WITH
MODELS STILL SHOWING H7 TEMPS BETWEEN +8 AND +10 DEG C. IT WILL ALSO
BE A WARM START TO THE DAY WITH CHEYENNE SITTING AT 53 DEGREES AS OF
3 AM MDT. WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHEASTERN
CO TODAY...RESULTING IN LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. WARM
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL PROMOTE STEEP LAPSE
RATES...POSSIBLY YIELDING CAPES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AREAWIDE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
CONVECTION...SO ADDED MENTION OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR
ALL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THE 06Z DY1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC
HAS MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. A PIECE OF MID-LEVEL VORT
ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYO LATE
TONIGHT...BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SAT. BELIEVE THIS WILL INTERACT WITH
A PRONOUNCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...SO WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED CATEGORICAL POPS PER
COORDINATION WITH UNR.

BIG CHALLENGES WITH THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT VORT
LOBES AFFECTING THE CWA...THE STRONGER OF WHICH APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS LIKELY THROUGH
THE DAY WITH CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHEAST CO REINFORCING UPSLOPE FLOW
AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100-110 KNOT
H25 JET OVER SOUTHEAST CO. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO LOOK
LIKE MORE OF A THREAT...MAINLY IN THE CYS-TOR-SNY TRIANGLE AND AREAS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE
LOW FARTHER NORTHWEST FOR A BIG OUTBREAK...BUT NONETHELESS THIS DOES
SUPPORT MOIST EASTERLY SFC FLOW VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT H7 WHICH
YIELDS SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
SHOW 1500-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND EXCELLENT 0-1 KM EHI GIVEN LOW-LVL
SHEAR IN PLACE. SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC NOW INCLUDES I80 BETWEEN SIDNEY
AND CHEYENNE...SO DECIDED TO ADD MENTION OF SEVERE. CIPS ANALOGS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH SEVERAL NORTHEAST COLORADO TORNADO EVENTS...SO WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER ON SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. DEEP MOISTURE AND IMPRESSIVE
LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO A REX BLOCK. ABSOLUTELY NO DOUBT THAT
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS WITH PWATS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH BEING WELL ABOVE CLIMO. SOME
CONCERN FOR TRAINING CONVECTION AS WELL. THE PRIMARY ISSUE HERE WILL
LIKELY BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD FOR AN
ACCELERATED SNOWMELT AND FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS/STREAMS. GAVE SOME
CONSIDERATION TO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WE DECIDED TO LET THE DAY
SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AND SEE IF THEY CAN NARROW DOWN THE SPECIFIC
THREAT AREAS. WPC HAS MUCH OF OUR CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...SO FULLY EXPECT THAT FLOOD AND/OR FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES WILL BE NECESSARY SOON. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WBZ HEIGHTS
FINALLY DROP BELOW 10K FEET WHICH WOULD SUGGEST MOUNTAIN SNOW. COULD
SEE ADVISORY-LEVEL AMOUNTS IF THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS SOON ENOUGH OVER
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

WET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW ESSENTIALLY
STALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS A
FAIRLY GOOD BET ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. CONCERNS FOR
FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY GIVEN COVERAGE OF RAIN
BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD MEAN MORE SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS VERSUS RAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE A BIT MORE STABILIZED ON SUNDAY DUE TO COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE UPPER LOW FINALLY KICKS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
MONDAY WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVING DOWN FROM MONTANA. THAT TROUGH
MOVES EAST BY THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXPECTED GOING INTO
LATE WEEK. OVERALL NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE
SEEN THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE 40S-50S WEST AND 60S EAST. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9500 FT LOOK
TO SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 THROUGH THE WEEK...COOL
ENOUGH TO SLOW THE SNOWMELT PROCESS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

FOLLOWED TREND AS DEPICTED BY HRRR THIS PACKAGE IN BRINGING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UP INTO SE WYOMING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY EARLY EVENING.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES PREVAILING VFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. LOWERED CEILINGS FOR
SCOTTSBLUFF, CHEYENNE, LARAMIE AND RAWLINS DOWN TO MVFR AFTER 06Z
WHERE GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
UP FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN STILL PROJECTED TO SET UP ACROSS SE
WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATTERN BECOMES A BIT LESS ACTIVE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY MID WEEK WITH PROJECTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE ANY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE
FORSEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS LIKELY IN
THE 50S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES. MTN
CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOTABLE RISES IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN TODAY
AND SATURDAY. RAIN ON SNOW COULD YIELD ACCELERATED SNOWMELT AND LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OF MOUNTAIN CREEKS/STREAMS. THERE MAY
ALSO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OVER THE PLAINS. FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES MAY BECOME NECESSARY SOON.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...JG
HYDROLOGY...CLH





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

 259 AM MST SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG
WARMING TREND WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PERSISTENT OMEGA BLOCK WHICH HAS KEPT THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN RELATIVELY STAGNANT OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY DEAMPLIFY AND BREAK DOWN. AS A
RESULT...THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
FINALLY BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD TODAY. IN THE MEANTIME...WE`RE
LOOKING AT ONE MORE DAY OF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES A PLEASANT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY.

CURRENTLY...A SERIES OF VORT MAXES PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
ARE ONCE AGAIN FACILITATING SOME ELEVATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PARTS OF PINAL COUNTY. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE
A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE LEANED ON IT
FOR THE SHORT TERM POP TRENDS THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINING JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA. WHAT SHOULD BE THE
LAST IN THE WAVE OF VORT LOBES SHOULD THEN SWEEP ACROSS (OR JUST
SOUTH OF) THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING LOOKS RATHER
MEAGER (HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY RISE AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHWARD) BUT IT APPEARS ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO
WARRANT LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WHITES.

SOLID HEIGHT RISES AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE HOLD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MIGRATES
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BEGIN A STRONG WARMING TREND NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TAKING A JUMP INTO THE 90S ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN POSSIBLY MAKING A RUN AT THE CENTURY MARK ON
THURSDAY FROM TUCSON AND INTO THE WESTERN ARIZONA DESERTS. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE ARE ALSO SOME SIGNS OF A BACKDOOR FRONT SLOSHING SOME
MOISTURE INTO OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE PRECIP-
FREE CONDITIONS FOR NOW GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED SHALLOW NATURE OF
ANY SURFACE MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL TODAY ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF KTUS. SURFACE
WINDS STRONGEST EAST OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KTS. GRADUALLY CLEARING CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
KEEP COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE AROUND TODAY. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES AROUND 15
MPH PERSISTING TODAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON GUSTINESS THEREAFTER.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY ALONG WITH
A STRONG WARMING TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

CARLAW

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

 1045 PM MST SAT MAY 7 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF ARIZONA. FOR SUNDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH DESERT HIGHS CLIMBING BACK TOWARD THE CENTURY MARK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE WESTERN STATES THIS EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS IN THE
LAS VEGAS VICINITY...THOUGH A CLEAR SECONDARY SHORT WAVE IS CURLING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT. IT IS THIS SECOND EMBEDDED SYSTEM THAT CAUSED A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS
EVENING. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS
SITUATION WELL /WHILE INTERESTINGLY THE HRRR-X IS MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE PRECIPITATION/. MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT ON POPS TO
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BASED ON LATEST DATA/TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW CENTER SITUATED NEAR THE NV/UT/AZ
BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY.
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
INTO TONIGHT...BUT CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN THAT OF YESTERDAY
AS SUPPORT ALOFT HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND NO OBVIOUS VORT
LOBES WILL MOVE THROUGH. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT
LOBE OFF THE BAJA COAST WHICH IS FORECAST TO MAINLY PASS BY TO OUR
SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE SWINGING BACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE PASSES JUST
TO OUR SOUTH...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL DECREASE AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SOME SHOWERS
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX WITH TIMING GENERALLY BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LAST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA. MODELS POINT TOWARD MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES WITH THIS LAST FEATURE WITH 20 POPS MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS AND 30-40 POPS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS.

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD STARTING TONIGHT...WE WILL START TO SEE SOME WARMING
ALOFT...BUT THAT WILL ONLY TRANSLATE INTO A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING
FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
ALOFT QUICKLY RISING INTO TUESDAY. THE MAIN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL STAY
OFF THE WEST COAST...BUT CONSIDERABLE WARMING ALOFT WILL OCCUR UNDER
THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB EACH DAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ON MONDAY AND THEN
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR TUESDAY. SOME SURFACE MOISTURE WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

GOOD ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT INDICATES THE PACIFIC RIDGE EVENTUALLY
SHIFTS ONSHORE AND OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRY US OUT FURTHER WHILE HEIGHTS
ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH 500MB HEIGHTS NEARING 585DM...OR NEAR
THE 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE FOR THE REGION. LOWER DESERT
HIGHS SHOULD TOP 100 DEGREES IN MANY SPOTS BY THURSDAY...LASTING
INTO FRIDAY. THESE READINGS WOULD STILL FALL SHORT OF RECORDS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES. THOUGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...THERE ARE INDICATIONS TEMPERATURES MAY MODERATE SOMEWHAT AS
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS BY WELL TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

WESTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA DUE TO AN
AREA OF SHOWERS THAT CLIPPED THE WEST VALLEY. THE WEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSEAND
VARIABLE TOWARD 12Z. SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL WINDS FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS PICKING BACK UP MORE FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SWINGING TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 7KFT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DECREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS PERCENT RANGE
WILL STEADILY DECREASE EACH DAY UNTIL THEY REACH THE 7 TO 11 PERCENT
RANGE ON THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15
TO 20KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON MOSTLY IN
THE TONTO FOOTHILLS AND S.GILA COUNTY. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES GUSTING TO 17 TO 24 KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS WELL AS IN SE CALIFORNIA.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...INIGUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...SAWTELLE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 302 AM PDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE DRY TODAY WITH PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE LOW CENTER IS FAR REMOVED FROM OUR
AREA...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL HAVING A DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. A
BAND OF SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW PASSED THROUGH THE NORTH BAY OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING AS MUCH AS
0.39" OR RAIN AT MOUNT SAINT HELENA IN NORTHWEST NAPA COUNTY AND
UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN SONOMA COUNTY. IN
ADDITION...MEASURABLE RAIN FELL AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN MATEO COUNTY.
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
DISSIPATING AND EXPECT NEARLY ALL PRECIP TO END BY SUNRISE.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA CAN
CURRENTLY BE SEEN MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. SOME OF THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR OUR FORECAST
AREA AROUND SUNRISE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HRRR MODEL...AS WELL
AS THE 00Z ECMWF. SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS MORNING FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR AREA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL END ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY...AND WE SHOULD SEE
PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST.

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES...WHICH
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE SINCE THE MIDDLE OF LAST
WEEK...ARE FORECAST TO WARM BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE BY TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL LIKELY MEAN AREAS OF NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE ECMWF FORECASTS AND UPPER LOW TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH
WOULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA. THE GFS INDICATES THAT SYSTEM WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST WELL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST AND THUS KEEPS ALL PRECIP
WELL TO OUR NORTH...WHICH WAS WHAT THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF
SHOWED. WILL NEED BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT/CONSISTENCY BEFORE
INTRODUCING RAIN CHANCES AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:25 PM PDT SATURDAY...A FEW MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTH AND EAST BAY AREAS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY END TONIGHT. PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG IS POSSIBLE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR RETURNS OVERNIGHT. CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
SUNDAY.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR. LOCALLY IFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS GRADUALLY ENDING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:33 AM PDT SUNDAY...A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
WEST OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: W PI


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 1104 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON IN NRN EL PASO
COUNTY AND NRN TELLER COUNTY.  DRIER AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE EAST
ACRS THE FAR SERN PLAINS...WITH DEW POINTS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER
40S AT 2 PM AT KLAA...BUT HAD DROPPED TO 30 BY 230 PM...AND WAS DOWN
TO 7 AT KLHX. THE BOUNDARY OUT EAST IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST
BUT IN THE MEANTIME STORMS ARE FIRING ALONG THIS DRY LINE.  IT IS
ALSO STILL RELATIVELY MOIST OVR EL PASO COUNTY WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 40S. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS THE DRY LINE
SHIFTING EAST INTO KS BY AROUND 23Z...WITH CONVECTION ENDING OVR THE
FAR SERN PLAINS. IT ALSO HAS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS KICKING IN OVR EL
PASO COUNTY BETWEEN 22Z AND 23Z AND THUS BRINGING DRIER AIR IN AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH PCPN CHANCES ENDING. UNTIL THE LOWER LEVELS
DRY OUT OVR EL PASO AND TELLER COUNTIES...AND IN LOCATIONS NEAR THE
KS BORDER...THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

ACRS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE SHOULD BE SOME ISOLD TO SCT
EVENING TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS
OF 40-50 PM AND SOME ISOLD SMALL HAIL.

BY 06Z THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA.  OVERNIGHT AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO LIE
FROM THE NRN CO BORDER TO WRN AZ.  THEN DURING THE DAY SUN...A
SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NM AND THEN THE SERN CORNER
OF CO IN THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE MAIN UPR LOW CENTER SITS IN SERN
WY.  THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY ACRS THE FORECAST AREA THRU ABOUT
MIDMORNING SUN...BUT THEN BY LATE MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE SOME SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTN AND NEARBY TRRN.
THEN IN THE AFTERNOON THERE WL BE ENOUGH MSTR AND INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLD STORMS TO SPREAD ACRS THE SERN PLAINS.  NR THE KS BORDER CAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 1000-1200 J/KG...WITH 40 KTS OF SHEAR IN
THE 0-6KM LAYER AND LI/S OF AROUND -6. THUS THERE COULD BE A THREAT
OF A SEVERE STORM OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS WILL DIMINISH SUN NIGHT...AS THE FIRST
UPPER LOW MOVES EWD INTO NE. MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING OVER THE MTN AREAS...AND COVERAGE
OVER THE CONTDVD WILL INCREASE ON MON MORNING. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ON MONDAY AS A
WEAK TRAILING DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SNOW ACCUMS THROUGH
MON WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...TWO TO FOUR INCHES...WITH A FEW
SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE. SEE
NO NEED FOR HIGHLITES AT THIS TIME.

AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE TUE MORNING AS A TRANSITORY SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH...TUE AFTERNOON MAY SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THE PLAINS AS A SECOND SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES
EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH E CO.
WEAK UPSLOPE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTS. WED SHOULD
BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA. THE ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN PROGGING MUCH COLDER AIR ON
WED...HAS BACKED OFF AND NOW JOINS THE GFS IN PROGGING H7 TEMPS
MORE IN THE 0 TO MINUS 2 RANGE WED MORNING...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
A SNOW LEVEL IN THE 7000 FOOT RANGE. QPF DOES NOT LOOK OVERLYIMPRESSIVE.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE MAY
AFFECT THE KCOS AND KALS TERMINALS AFTER 20-21Z. HAVE INTRODUCED
VCTS INTO BOTH TERMINAL FORECASTS. CIGS WILL REMAIN HIGH BASED
AND VFR BUT WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR THESE HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE AT
TIMES...PARTICULARLY AT KCOS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...KT




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 332 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND MILDER
WEATHER. MUCH OF THIS WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEXT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE PERSIST EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. S/SW
FLOW STARTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N.

UNORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL NY/PA AND LINES UP WELL WITH HRRR GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS
FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR TIMING. THESE SHOWERS WILL REACH WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND 8-10 AM BEFORE REACHING E COAST 11 AM TO NOON. CERTAINLY
NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT TODAY AS SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY LAST 2-3
HOURS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. BETTER LIFT PASSES N OF OUR AREA WHICH
IS WHERE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE.

ONCE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE OFFSHORE...CLEARING WORKS
IN AS DRIER AIR FOLLOWS ON GUSTY W WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH 60S
ACROSS MOST OF AREA EXCEPT 50S NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHICH
WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A FEW MID
OR HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. AS WINDS DIMINISH...SETUP FAVORS GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF REGION. PARTS OF W MA WILL PROBABLY DROP
INTO MID 30S BUT FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM DOES NOT BEGIN IN THESE
LOCATIONS UNTIL MAY 11. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE SOME OF USUAL COLD
SPOTS IN E MA REACH MID 30S AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE
READINGS BEING WIDESPREAD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY FROST
ADVISORIES.

SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MON MORNING...BUT WITH
RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS ONLY EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH IT.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN MA BUT FOCUS FOR
ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE FARTHER N WHERE BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE RESIDE. SUNSHINE AND W FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS WELL INTO
60S IF NOT TO AROUND 70 ACROSS PARTS OF CT...RI AND E MA.
CERTAINLY A WELCOME CHANGE AFTER THE RAINY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY
* TEMPS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL BY WED/THU
* MORE WET WEATHER POSSIBLE FRI AND AGAIN SAT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BLOCKED AND AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES FROM PACIFIC COAST
TO WRN ATLANTIC...BOOKENDED ON EACH SIDE BY STRONG RIDGING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FALL IN LINE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL LIE
MAINLY OVER THE MARITIMES AND ATLANTIC CANADA. AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER NOTED...THIS PROVIDES DRY NW AND CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND...SUPPRESSING MEAN STORM TRACK FAR ENOUGH TO THE S TO
BE OF LITTLE IMPACT ON SRN NEW ENGLAND. BY LATE WEEK HOWEVER...A
BREAKDOWN IN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE IS EXPECTED AS A PHASES VORT MAX
FROM THE NW TERRITORIES AND SW CONUS BEGINS TO IMPACT THE NE.
TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF MORE UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET WX IS
ANTICIPATED. WITH MODELS FINALLY SHOWING REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT
HERE...AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE MID-TERM...FEEL A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CAN
BE USED.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT...
SETUP FOR A CHILLY MAY NIGHT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES BEHIND WEAK
TROF LATE IN THE DAY. PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AS WELL WHICH COULD
PROVIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY TUE MORNING WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE 30S. LOW RISK FOR SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT.

TUE THROUGH THU...
MAINLY DRY PERIOD AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION
AND SUPPRESSES STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDER TO THE S. COLUMN DRY
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY SOME DIURNAL CU/CI
EXPECTED. ALSO EXPECT FULL MIXING TO H85 WHERE TEMPS WILL RISE
FROM +4C ON TUE...TO +9C ON THU. THIS SUGGESTS WARMEST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S ON TUE...AND INTO THE 70S BY THU. WEAK PRES GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...KEEPING NEAR SHORE
LOCATIONS COOLER.

FRI...
THE FIRST IMPACT FROM DEVELOPING UPSTREAM CUTOFF LOW PRES WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRI. COMBINATION OF INCREASING PWATS
NEAR 1.0 INCHES WITH K-VALUES NEAR 30 SUGGEST WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT LOOKS
MAINLY LIKE A LATER-DAY EVENT. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LOW AT
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD THE FRONT PASS LATER IN THE DAY THIS COULD
CHANGE.

SAT AND SUN...
SECONDARY LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ACROSS THE NE AS CUTOFF
AND ATTENDANT TROF TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
CERTAINTY IN TIMING WILL GET BETTER WITH TIME...BUT FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE WITH AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND AT TIMES
WITH TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

330 AM UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR/LIFR IN FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST AND
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER INLAND MVFR CIGS PREVAIL WITH AREAS
OF IFR CIGS.

CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD LIFT AS BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSES REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABLY NO HIGHER THAN MVFR.
SHOULD SEE RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR 18Z-21Z FROM W TO E AS COLD
FRONT CROSSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO W. GUSTS TO 25KT EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.

VFR WITH DIMINISHING W WINDS SUN NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF CIGS LIFTING THIS
MORNING MAY BE TOO SLOW. COULD OCCUR 2-3 HOURS FASTER.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF CIGS LIFTING LATER THIS
MORNING MAY BE TOO SLOW. COULD OCCUR 2-3 HOURS FASTER.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S/SW WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING W WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...
GUSTING TO 25 KT ON E MA WATERS AS WELL AS BOS HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE AREAS.
W WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT MAY APPROACH 25 KT AGAIN MON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED ON OUTER WATERS AND S COASTAL
SOUNDS THRU TONIGHT MAINLY DUE TO SEAS BUT ALSO FOR MARGINAL 25
KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND COLD FRONT. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO MON AS WELL.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/JWD
MARINE...DOODY/JWD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 329 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND MILDER
WEATHER. MUCH OF THIS WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEXT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE PERSIST EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. S/SW
FLOW STARTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N.

UNORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL NY/PA AND LINES UP WELL WITH HRRR GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS
FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR TIMING. THESE SHOWERS WILL REACH WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND 8-10 AM BEFORE REACHING E COAST 11 AM TO NOON. CERTAINLY
NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT TODAY AS SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY LAST 2-3
HOURS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. BETTER LIFT PASSES N OF OUR AREA WHICH
IS WHERE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE.

ONCE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE OFFSHORE...CLEARING WORKS
IN AS DRIER AIR FOLLOWS ON GUSTY W WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH 60S
ACROSS MOST OF AREA EXCEPT 50S NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHICH
WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A FEW MID
OR HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. AS WINDS DIMINISH...SETUP FAVORS GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF REGION. PARTS OF W MA WILL PROBABLY DROP
INTO MID 30S BUT FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM DOES NOT BEGIN IN THESE
LOCATIONS UNTIL MAY 11. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE SOME OF USUAL COLD
SPOTS IN E MA REACH MID 30S AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE
READINGS BEING WIDESPREAD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY FROST
ADVISORIES.

SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MON MORNING...BUT WITH
RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS ONLY EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH IT.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN MA BUT FOCUS FOR
ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE FARTHER N WHERE BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE RESIDE. SUNSHINE AND W FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS WELL INTO
60S IF NOT TO AROUND 70 ACROSS PARTS OF CT...RI AND E MA.
CERTAINLY A WELCOME CHANGE AFTER THE RAINY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY
* SEASONABLE TEMPS AND BREEZY MON THEN TEMPS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
  BY WED/THU
* MORE WET WEATHER POSSIBLE FRI AND AGAIN SAT

OVERVIEW...
HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH STRONG RIDGES IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC TO ICELAND AND OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA. HOWEVER...CLOSED VORTEX WILL BE OVER THE
MARITIMES WHICH OFFERS A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DURING MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AND WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH CONFLUENT FLOW OVER NEW ENG
WHICH SHOULD KEEP FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCD MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH
TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. LATEST GFS HAS COME AROUND TO ECMWF/EPS AND GGEM
KEEPING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH. WHILE THIS VORTEX WILL BE UNABLE TO
COMPLETELY ESCAPE THE MARITIMES AND ATLANTIC CANADA DUE TO
DOWNSTREAM BLOCK IT DOES SHIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALLOWING THE GT LAKES RIDGE TO MOVE INTO THE
NEW ENG. SO WE ARE LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY WEEK THROUGH THU WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS TO START...THEN WARMING ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED/THU.
HOWEVER...RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF AS NEXT MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES
NEXT FRI/SAT WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH...AND WHILE
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE SFC PATTERN PLAYS OUT IT APPEARS
THAT A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS POSSIBLE NEXT FRI/SAT.

DETAILS...

TUE THROUGH THU... MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR DRY WEATHER AS HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL...KEEPING FRONTAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT ON TUE BUT THIS
WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE COLUMN REMAINS
RATHER DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD LEADING TO MOSUNNY SKIES. MODERATING
TREND IN TEMPS EXPECTED AS 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM AROUND 4C
TUE TO NEAR 10C THU. MAXES SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES ON TUE
IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...A FEW DEGREES WARMER WED AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S BY THU. BUT SEABREEZES MAY DEVELOP WED/THU
KEEPING IT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

FRI AND SAT...
MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW COULD AFFECT SNE FRI AND
SAT. UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS/TIMING BUT IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS FRI AND POSSIBLY SAT AS WELL ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

330 AM UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR/LIFR IN FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST AND
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER INLAND MVFR CIGS PREVAIL WITH AREAS
OF IFR CIGS.

CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD LIFT AS BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSES REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABLY NO HIGHER THAN MVFR.
SHOULD SEE RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR 18Z-21Z FROM W TO E AS COLD
FRONT CROSSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO W. GUSTS TO 25KT EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.

VFR WITH DIMINISHING W WINDS SUN NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF CIGS LIFTING THIS
MORNING MAY BE TOO SLOW. COULD OCCUR 2-3 HOURS FASTER.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF CIGS LIFTING LATER THIS
MORNING MAY BE TOO SLOW. COULD OCCUR 2-3 HOURS FASTER.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON...VFR CIGS. LOW PROB FOR MVFR AND BRIEF SHOWER NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE. BREEZY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT.

TUE THROUGH THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S/SW WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING W WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...
GUSTING TO 25 KT ON E MA WATERS AS WELL AS BOS HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE AREAS.
W WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT MAY APPROACH 25 KT AGAIN MON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED ON OUTER WATERS AND S COASTAL
SOUNDS THRU TONIGHT MAINLY DUE TO SEAS BUT ALSO FOR MARGINAL 25
KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND COLD FRONT. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO MON AS WELL.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MON...EXPECT WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT DEVELOPING OVER NEARSHORE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY BOS HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY WHERE BEST
MIXING. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. SUB SCA WINDS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS BUT HAZARDOUS SEAS AOA 5 FT EXPECTED.

TUE THROUGH THU...QUIET BOATING WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SCA. WESTERLY WINDS TUE...THEN WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY
ONSHORE WED AND POSSIBLY THU AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/JWD
MARINE...DOODY/JWD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 325 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING, AND STALL
SOUTH OF OUR AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO MOVES INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL MAKE ITS
WAY NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL PA NOW, AND IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS
EAST. EXPECT IT TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION BY LATE THIS MORNING. DID
NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE POPS; THOUGH RADAR TRENDS SHOW LIMITED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT, THE HRRR SUGGESTS COVERAGE
COULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OUR REGION.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SHOULD HAVE A DRY AND BREEZY DAY ON
TAP AND (FOR A CHANGE) COULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
CONTINUED DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TRENDED LOW
TEMPS DOWN TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH GUIDANCE. GIVEN DRY AIR, RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD HAVE A GOOD SET UP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EVEN SO, EXPECT TEMPS, EVEN IN THE POCONOS TO
STAY UP ENOUGH TO NEGATE ANY FROST THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THRU
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID-LEVEL FLOW FEATURES A
CLOSED LOW OVER ATLANTIC CANADA, WHILE THE OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE
CENTRAL US SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST. THIS MAINTAINS A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME OVER THE CONUS, CHARACTERIZED BY A NORTHERN STREAM HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE NEAR HUDSON`S BAY, WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
UNDERCUTS THIS FEATURE EN ROUTE TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE NORTHEAST THU, WITH OUR
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FRI INTO SAT.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETTING UP OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC IN THE TUE THRU THU TIME FRAME.
THE CONFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL MAINTAIN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND, WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY INITIATES SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
LEADING TO OVERRUNNING PRECIP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THE MODEL
TREND HAS BEEN TO SUPPRESS THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, AND
THUS THE PRECIPITATION AS WELL. THE GFS IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND NAM, WHICH ARE NORTH AND SOUTH, RESPECTIVELY.

FAIR WEATHER AND BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH WEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TUE THRU THU
WILL BE SOUTH OF I-195, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA. OVERALL, THE PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. WITH THE REGION NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY, ANOTHER PROLONGED ALBEIT LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO SETUP DURING THIS PERIOD. FORTUNATELY, AS THIS FLOW
RAMPS UP, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE RAMPING DOWN. AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTENS, FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHTS.

WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION IN DELMARVA BOTH
WED AND THU, THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
LATER THIS WEEK, AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WEAKENS ACROSS THE
REGION FRI AND IS FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE SAT. THE POSSIBILITY OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP IS DURING THIS TIME FRAME, AS THE MORE
SUPPRESSED NATURE OF THE STALLED MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
LIMIT PRECIP. OVERALL, DAYTIME MAXES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, BUT WARMER
NIGHTTIME MINS THANKS TO CLOUD COVER SHOULD LEAD TO AVERAGE TEMPS
AOA NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE SLOWED THEIR PROGRESSION EAST. LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR HAVE OCCURRED AT KPHL, KTTN, KPNE, KMIV,
AND KMIV. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY AT
THESE TERMINALS UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH (THOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A BRIEF
REDUCTION TO MVFR IF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT MOVE OVER A TAF
SITE), EXPECT THE TAF SITES TO QUICKLY GO TO VFR AND SEE A SHIFT TO
WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT THE VFR CONDITIONS TO THEN
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH 21Z, BUT SHOULD BE NEAR
OR BELOW 10KT BY 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT THRU WED...PREDOMINANTLY VFR.

WED NIGHT THRU THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA AND FOG, ESPECIALLY
ILG, MIV, AND ACY.

&&

.MARINE...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE. THE MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 8 AM EDT.

EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS, PRIMARILY FOR WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KT TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
OVER THE WATERS. IT MAY BE A CASE WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
NEAR SHORE, WHILE FURTHER OFF SHORE ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS,
WIND GUSTS MAY BE AT OR BELOW 25 KT.

WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON APPROACH
SCA CRITERIA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. OTHERWISE, SUB SCA
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO THURSDAY. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR TODAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20
TO 30 PERCENT FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION, WESTERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST 20-30 MPH, PRIMARILY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH AS WET AS CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RECENTLY, NO
ENHANCED FIRE PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED AND WATER LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL.
THOUGH HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT TWO
HIGH TIDE CYCLES...LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450>453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/JOHNSON
MARINE...FRANCK/JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

 342 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT

THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP TRENDS TODAY
AND THEN LATER TONIGHT...AND THEN WITH AN ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED
THIS WEEK.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING SOME LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUING TO
STREAM SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...RIDING
ALONG SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY. AT THIS TIME...THESE SHOWERS ARE
STAYING SOUTH OF THE CWA. DO EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO SLIGHTLY LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING...AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ONLY EXPECT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA TO
OBSERVE PERIODIC LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND WITH THE BULK OF
ANY INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH...THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE
PRESENT OR BE VERY BRIEF/LIMITED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY THE
AFTERNOON BUT WITH CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA.
PRECIP/CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER WARMING IN THAT AREA BUT FOR
REMAINING AREAS ACROSS THE CWA...DO THINK TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY FORM LATER
TODAY...BUT WITH WARMING INTO THE 60S FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS TURN ONSHORE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A FAIRLY ENERGETIC VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE VARIES TO THE EXTENT OF THE NORTHEAST
PUSH OF THIS PRECIP WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING MOST OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA DRY TONIGHT...WHILE OTHER SWING
LARGE PRECIP SHIELD NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. KEPT THE IDEA OF PRECIP
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST TO THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT DID CONFINE HIGHEST POPS TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE FOR FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...ONCE AGAIN OWING FOR LOWER CONFIDENCE. INSTABILITY
APPEARS TO BE WEAK DURING THIS TIME BUT STRONGER FORCING WITH THIS
WAVE COULD OFFSET LACKING INSTABILITY...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.

DUE TO THE VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE WILL
BE IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR
WHATEVER PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT TO LINGER AT LEAST FOR A TIME IN
THE MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE EAST. A DRY PERIOD COULD BE
OBSERVED BEFORE TURN ATTENTION TO LIKELY REDEVELOPMENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THIS WITH NORTHWARD PUSHING BOUNDARY AND MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL HELP FOR THIS REDEVELOPMENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY KEY FOR STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE VARIES TO THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT ITS VERY POSSIBLE FOR IT TO PUSH
NORTH INTO AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. WITH THIS
POSSIBILITY...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED FOR SOME STRONGER DEVELOPMENT
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD
AND EVEN MORE INTO THE EVENING...IF THE BOUNDARY LIFTS FURTHER
NORTH. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT HAVE
MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY AND THINK TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE MOST LOCATIONS
OBSERVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM DOES APPEAR TO WEAKEN
DURING THAT TIME THOUGH WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE WEAKER
SIDE. HOWEVER...HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR IN THE PRESENCE OF A
LINGERING BOUNDARY COULD AID FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL THEN LIKELY DIMINISH/EXIT TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH BUT PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH.
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS LOW BUT ADVERTISED
PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND ANOTHER PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON. LOOKS
LIKE SOME DRY PERIODS SHOULD RETURN BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...BUT WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO POSSIBLY WORK ITS WAY
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK...WITH
THE MAIN CONCERN BEING THE LIKELIHOOD OF A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING
EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL START WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 6-10KT. WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT IT APPEARS FAVORABLE THAT
A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND AROUND 18Z...REACHING
ORD/MDW CLOSER TO 19Z WITH WINDS INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST THEN
MORE EASTERLY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. FURTHER INLAND
AIRFIELDS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THE LAKE BREEZE AND MAINTAIN A
SOUTHWEST/WEST WIND BETWEEN 8-12KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEN
AFTER SUNSET WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL STEADILY THICKEN BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR CONDS
THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

BEACHLER

&&

.MARINE...
302 AM CDT

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST LATER TODAY. AS A LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...BUT
REMAIN WEAK. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY. THE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
MUCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS...HOWEVER WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BACK TO 10 TO
20 KT TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEACHLER

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
337 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT Sun May 8 2016

A frontal boundary that brought some severe thunderstorms with
damaging wind gusts south of I-70 between 6-7 pm on Saturday, has
slipped sw of ILX`s CWA early this morning and extends just south of
I-64 in southern IL. A narrow band of isolated to scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms was over southwest CWA early this morning
along and a Macomb to Springfield to Effingham. This convection was
tied closer to the 850 mb frontal boundary just sw of Lincoln, IL.
Much drier and more stable air has worked into northeast CWA with
dewpoints in the 30s from Lacon to Bloomington to Champaign and
Danville northeast, while dewpoints in the 50s from Galesburg to
Jacksonville west. HRRR and RAP models take this narrow band of
elevated convection ENE across central IL through mid morning and
diminishes ne of I-74 late this morning. Then isolated convection to
develop in sw CWA later this afternoon closer to frontal boundary
over sw IL. Cooler highs today range from mid 60s to lower 70s with
coolest readings by Danville and milder by Jacksonville sw and along
highway 50 in southeast IL. Southeast winds fairly light today near
10 mph or less.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT Sun May 8 2016

Unsettled weather pattern expected across central and southeast IL
through Wednesday evening, with another chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms Fri/Sat. SPC has marginal risk across area later
Monday afternoon and Monday evening and from I-72 south on Tuesday
afternoon/evening for strong winds and hail. Temperatures to
gradually warm next few days, peaking in the lower 80s on Wed and
then turning cooler late this weekend and especially next
weekend.

00Z forecast models take fairly strong surface low pressure into
central Nebraska by 12Z/Mon and brings a warm front ne toward
central IL, and lifts through central IL during Monday as low
pressure lifts northward. This will likely bring a period of showers
and thunderstorms to the area. SPC just has general risk of
thunderstorms tonight and Monday morning. Most unstable airmass is
in sw CWA later Monday afternoon until mid evening Monday where
CAPES reach 1000-1400 J/kg while bulk shear peaks from 30-40 kts. So
feel better risk of severe storms maybe in our SW CWA again.
Strongest bulk shear of 30-40 kts and highest CAPES of 1000-1800
J/kg are south of I-72 on Tue afternoon/evening where marginal risk
of severe storms continues. Highs Monday in low to mid 70s, then in
mid to upper 70s Tue and mostly lower 80s on Wed.

Cutoff low pressure over the Dakotas on Wed and brings a cold front
east across IL during Wed night to continue good chances of showers
and thunderstorms over central/se IL Wed afternoon and Wed night
along with warm summerlike conditions on Wed. Models have trended
drier on Thu behind the cold front with just slight chance of
showers in eastern IL Thu. Temps cool closer to normal ranging from
near 70F over the IL river valley and mid 70s in southeast IL with
similar temps on Friday. Have dry conditions Thu night and then
return chances of showers and thunderstorms by Friday afternoon and
Friday night as next weather system moves in from the northern
Plains. A deepening upper level low into the Great Lakes region late
this week into next week brings cooler temperatures in the 60s next
Sat/Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016

A band of showers from near KMQB-KLWV expected to continue
overnight...possibly increasing in coverage as flow aloft
interacting with an elevated frontal boundary increases. Only an
isolated chance for thunderstorms and low coverage of showers so
have only included VCSH in TAFS, along with VFR conditions. A lull
in precipitation expected for much of the day Sunday then
precipitation associated with a warm frontal boundary will begin
to spread northeastward late in the afternoon. Expecting scattered
showers returning across the area toward the end of the 24 hour
TAF forecast period. Winds SE up to 8 kts through the period.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Onton




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

 108 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...747 PM CDT

QUIET AND MAINLY PLEASANT NIGHT SETTING IN FOR THE AREA WITH ONLY
MINOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW DRAPED OVER THE
MIDSECTION OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AND WILL MOVE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH TONIGHT WITH DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR REPLENISHING INTO THE AREA.
BELIEVE THE SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TO STAY OVER THOSE LOCATIONS...BASICALLY ALONG THE
ELEVATED MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. FURTHER SUPPORTING THIS...THE
00Z ILX RAOB INDICATED NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS SO NOT
SEEING LIKELIHOOD FOR THIS UNSETTLED AXIS TO SHIFT NORTH.

AS A SLIGHT ASIDE...IF NOT FOR THE THICKER HIGH CLOUDS IT WOULD
LIKELY BE QUITE THE VIBRANT SUNSET THIS EVENING GIVEN UPPER LEVEL
SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM FIRES AS SEEN ON LATE DAY VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. MOST OF THE CWA LOOKS TO HAVE JUST THICK ENOUGH TO CIRRUS
TO NOT MAKE OUT THE SUNSET.

GOING FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOK ON TRACK. DEW POINTS HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 20S IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. SOME CIRRUS AND EVEN POSSIBLY THE SMOKE ALOFT WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT A HUGE TEMPERATURE DROP IN THESE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...WHICH IS DIURNALLY THE MOST FAVORED TIME. STILL THOUGH
THINK THERE COULD BE PATCHY FROST IN NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE SOME
OF THESE LOWEST DEW POINTS ARE PRESENTLY.

MTF

&&

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

254 PM...THE COLD FRONT IS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME STATIONARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IL
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
CWA INTO THIS EVENING. CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA AND MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS.

WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BEFORE TURNING WESTERLY. WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...LOWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE LOWER
40S MOST AREAS AND POSSIBLY UPPER 30S IN THE USUAL COOL SPOTS.
MORE WIDESPREAD UPPER 30S WITH SOME MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING HOW LOW
TEMPS MAY DROP THERE...OPTED TO INCLUDE PATCHY FROST MENTION BUT
EVENING SHIFT MAY ABLE TO DROP THIS AS TRENDS EMERGE.

LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS NOW APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
LAKE BREEZE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OR PERHAPS ONSHORE WINDS RIGHT AT
THE LAKESHORE. IN ADDITION...IF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO...THEN HIGH TEMPS MIGHT END UP A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED UPPER 60S/NEAR 70. CMS

&&

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

254 PM...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
COULD BE A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO PRECIP SO FURTHER ADJUSTMENT
TO POPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BUT LIKELY SOUTH OF I-80 LOOKS ON
TRACK. ASSUMING THIS TIMING PANS OUT...COULD BE A LULL MIDDAY
MONDAY AND THEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS TIME PERIOD HAS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD/PROLONGED ACTIVITY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN
IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE AND QPF FORECASTS RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH FOCUS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE POPS. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PRECIP AND THEN DRYING OUT THURSDAY.

A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN ARRIVES FRIDAY AND WHILE THIS
MAY ALSO BRING SOME SHOWERS...MODELS SUGGEST A VERY COOL AIRMASS
FOR MID MAY WITH 850MB TEMPS POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW ZERO HERE
ACROSS NORTHERN IL. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK...WITH
THE MAIN CONCERN BEING THE LIKELIHOOD OF A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING
EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL START WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 6-10KT. WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT IT APPEARS FAVORABLE THAT
A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND AROUND 18Z...REACHING
ORD/MDW CLOSER TO 19Z WITH WINDS INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST THEN
MORE EASTERLY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. FURTHER INLAND
AIRFIELDS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THE LAKE BREEZE AND MAINTAIN A
SOUTHWEST/WEST WIND BETWEEN 8-12KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEN
AFTER SUNSET WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL STEADILY THICKEN BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR CONDS
THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

BEACHLER

&&

.MARINE...
146 PM CDT

LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WINDS EARLIER
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST SLIDES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WHILE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN...WAVE HEIGHTS CURRENTLY AROUND 7 FT ON THE
ILLINOIS NEARSHORE AND 8-9 FT ALONG THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WILL
TAKE A LITTLE MORE TIME TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. THE ILLINOIS
NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT QUICKER...POTENTIALLY BY
EARLY EVENING...THOUGH WILL KEEP BOTH AREAS IN THE ADVISORY FOR
NOW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT THEN TO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT
BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKE MONDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL RESPOND BY TURNING MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOWS EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE
ROCKIES.

KMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1153 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016

Cold front has now pushed well south of the central IL forecast
area...with westerly flow aloft pushing over the frontal boundary
producing scattered showers across the area. Overnight...the flow
aloft should increase, producing continued showers, or perhaps an
increase in activity. Elevated instability could produce isolated
to scattered thunderstorms as well in the overnight hours.
Northeast winds will decrease overnight as surface high pressure
crosses the area. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler
tonight in the post- cold-frontal air mass with lows in the upper
40s and low 50s...compared with the upper 50s and low 60s last
night. Updates for trends in shower coverage...otherwise forecast
is in good shape.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016

19z/2pm surface analysis shows cold front sagging southward toward
the I-74 corridor.  With dewpoints pooling in the upper 50s to
around 60 along/ahead of the boundary, latest LAPS data is
indicating SBCAPE values of 1000-1500J/kg.  0-6km bulk shear remains
rather weak, but is expected to increase to between 40 and 50kt
later this afternoon/evening as an upper trough digs into the Great
Lakes.  Given the moderate instability/shear parameters, the
potential exists for a few strong to severe thunderstorms from now
through about 02z/9pm.  HRRR has consistently been showing clusters
of thunderstorms developing across northern Missouri/southern Iowa
this afternoon, then tracking southeastward across mainly the
southern third of the KILX CWA.  Latest radar mosaic confirms the
HRRR, with thunderstorms currently around Quincy moving toward the
Winchester/Jacksonville areas.  Thunderstorms should track/develop
southeastward over the next few hours, impacting locations along and
south of a Rushville...to Lincoln...to Paris line through early
evening.  Main threats from the storms will be gusty winds and hail.
Once this initial wave of convection passes into the Ohio River
Valley, a lull in the precip is expected for the remainder of the
evening.  Overnight...a weak LLJ interacting with the stalled
frontal boundary will result in scattered thunderstorm development
across the entire area.  Have therefore focused highest PoPs across
the S/SE CWA late this afternoon into the early evening, then have
gone with chance PoPs across the board after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016

The cold front will stall out south of our forecast area in the Ohio
River Valley by Sunday morning, with spotty showers lingering in the
post-frontal airmass across central IL. A majority of the day looks
dry, but will keep slight chance PoPs in the forecast due to
channeled vorticity in the northwest flow moving across IL. Sunday
afternoon, precip chances will begin to increase for areas west of
Springfield to Shelbyville, as the front begins to make a faster
northward push west of Illinois.

The warm front will lift northward through our forecast area
starting Sunday night, reaching between I-74 and I-88 by 00z/7pm
Monday. Likely chances of rain and storms will accompany the front,
with increasing PoPs from SW to NE Sunday night and Monday. There
may be a break in the rain Monday morning, which could allow the
atmosphere to recharge in the warm sector over central IL. A few
storms may become strong in our western counties Monday
afternoon/evening west of a line from Rushville to Springfield to
Taylorville, where CAPE values could climb to 1000 J/kg depending on
if any sunshine breaks through for any amount of time. Dewpoints
will climb into the low 60s, providing added fuel for storms.

Central IL will remain in the warm sector Monday night and Tuesday,
when categorical PoPs were expanded in the forecast to cover
increasing instability params. Tuesday afternoon, MUCAPES of 2000
J/kg appear possible, with additional strong storms across the
board. Shear values look marginal, so mainly large hail with those
storms.

Another break in the storms looks possible later Tuesday night and
Wednesday, before a cold front and a line of storms push across
Illinois Wed night.

Cooler air will arrive behind that front, along with some drier air
for Thursday through Friday morning. A cold front projected to reach
central IL Friday afternoon will increase rain and storm chances
once again through Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016

A band of showers from near KMQB-KLWV expected to continue
overnight...possibly increasing in coverage as flow aloft
interacting with an elevated frontal boundary increases. Only an
isolated chance for thunderstorms and low coverage of showers so
have only included VCSH in TAFS, along with VFR conditions. A lull
in precipitation expected for much of the day Sunday then
precipitation associated with a warm frontal boundary will begin
to spread northeastward late in the afternoon. Expecting scattered
showers returning across the area toward the end of the 24 hour
TAF forecast period. Winds SE up to 8 kts through the period.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 218 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

WARM SECTOR REALLY STRUGGLING TO INITIATE CONVECTION AND DESPITE
WHAT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN INDICATING...PROBABILITIES OF A
LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG DRY LINE APPEAR TO BE DECREASING.
STILL THINK REASONABLE CHANCE FOR MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF WARM FRONT...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF POPS CONSIDERABLY SOUTH
OF I-70.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 452 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SHORT DURATION HIGH WIND
EVENT BEHIND THE DRY LINE IN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO.

STARTING TO SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AHEAD OF DRY
LINE AND EXPECT FOR THIS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THIS AREA NOT
NEARLY AS BACKED AS NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA...TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE LESS AND DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO ADJUST CURRENT
WATCHES. HAVE INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT AND TRIED TO BE A BIT
MORE DETERMINISTIC AS THIS NEXT AREA OF STORMS DEVELOP AS EXPECT A
FAIRLY SOLID LINE TO DEVELOP BY 00Z.

MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 45-50 KT WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR AS
DRYLINE BEGINS TO MOVE. BASED ON LAA AND NEARBY
OBSERVATIONS...WINDOW FOR SIGNIFICANT WINDS LIMITED AND PEAK
VALUES TOPPING OUT AROUND 48 KTS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN ANY
WIDESPREAD PERSISTENT HIGH WIND THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OUT
OF EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AS LIFT
OVERCOMES THE CAPPING MECHANISM THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL HOWEVER THERE IS AN
INCREASED FAVORABILITY FOR TORNADOES IN YUMA...KIT CARSON...AND
CHEYENNE CO COUNTIES THROUGH AROUND 01Z. DRIER AIR WILL BE PULLED
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY EXPECTED EAST OF HWY 27 AS A
WELL DEVELOPED DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUNDAYS THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOWS TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND EUROPEAN...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WEDNESDAY HAS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
DAKOTAS...WHICH POSITIONS A TROUGH OVER THE CWA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA A RIDGE BEGINS TO FORM ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CONUS. THE TROUGH IS EAST OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING AND BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE GFS HAS THIS
PATTERN INHIBITING THE RIDGE FROM FULLY ENGULFING THE CWA AND STAYS
SITTING OVER THE 4 CORNERS AND THE EUROPEAN HAS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA SATURDAY WHICH PUSHES THE RIDGE OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY. EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES THE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE RIDGING. THERE
ARE SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AS A FEW 700 MB
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

FOR 06Z TAFS...AREA OF SMOKE HAS BEEN REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT MCK
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINING
THE SAME SEE NO REASON WHY IT WILL IMPROVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE VISIBILITY FORECAST. DO THINK
THAT AREA OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AS MOISTURE POOLS IN EASTERN
CWA...SO EXPECT VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 3 MILES TO MAINTAIN ITSELF
THROUGH SUNRISE. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 2000 FT CEILINGS AT GLD AS
SMALL FINGER OF LOW STRATUS WRAPPING AROUND LOW CIRCULATION...BUT
EXPECT THIS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JRM




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

 313 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

Forecast for thunderstorms today, and their potential strength still
remains dependent on how convection evolves over the next several
hours.  Warm front has diffused a bit over north central Kansas,
where showers and isolated thunderstorms have continued in these
overnight hours, but boundary is generally north of I70.  Next upper
wave noted in WV imagery lifting out of north Central Oklahoma at
this hour, and is the next feature expected to redevelop convection
as it moves through in the morning into early afternoon hours.

Boundary layer remains capped and early convection is expected to be
elevated, with a lower end severe threat.  As afternoon progresses,
if atmosphere gets a chance to recover after the morning convection,
NAM suggests late afternoon/early evening storms would become
surface based with ample shear and instability to bring severe
storms. HRRR and others indicates storms forming along the dryline
in south central Kansas. Those storms would have the potential to
move into our western counties with a severe threat in the late
afternoon into evening hours, with all modes of severe weather
possible, including large hail, winds and isolated tornadoes
possible. This threat spreads east with time, with GFS spreading dry
slot back into the area from W to E overnight and ushering out most
of the storms by sunrise.  Will have to watch for locally heavy
rainfall also as flow becomes more aligned north to south and has
frontal boundary near our northern counties.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

On Monday a strong shortwave will round the base of the main trough
axis and lift out over KS during the day. At the surface the dry
line will set up across central KS and be the focus for storm
development once the cap breaks. Steep mid level lapse rates will
accompany the shortwave, which should support surface based cape
around 3000 j/kg. The main issue is that the deep layer shear is sub
marginal to support much organized severe convection. Given the high
instability though localized hail and damaging wind will be possible
in the afternoon and evening. The decrease in the instability during
the late evening should cause ongoing storms to weaken. The models
show that the kicker wave over the northern Rockies will absorb the
initial wave over the northern plains. This may keep the dry line
from progressing eastward much by Tuesday, although most locations
should remain dry with subsidence behind the wave. Despite that
model sounding show an uncapped environment on Tuesday afternoon the
lack of forcing for ascent should limit any activity. On Tuesday
night a cold front will push into KS as the main system tracks over
the northern plains. The models are fairly consistent with
developing elevated showers mainly across north central KS Wednesday
morning. The environment tries to keep some instability ahead of
this front therefore could not rule out a few storms as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

VFR prevails through the period while convection remains west of
terminals through sunrise. Expect scattered TSRA to develop to the
southwest, nearing terminals in the 15Z to 18Z time frame. There
may be a temporary break in the afternoon before the next round
of TSRA develops in the late afternoon. These are more likely to
bring widespread precipitation with MVFR conditions likely aft
00Z. Some guidance is hinting at IFR with the residual showers
through 06Z.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Prieto




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1203 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

WARM SECTOR REALLY STRUGGLING TO INITIATE CONVECTION AND DESPITE
WHAT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN INDICATING...PROBABILITIES OF A
LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG DRY LINE APPEAR TO BE DECREASING.
STILL THINK REASONABLE CHANCE FOR MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF WARM FRONT...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF POPS CONSIDERABLY SOUTH
OF I-70.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 452 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SHORT DURATION HIGH WIND
EVENT BEHIND THE DRY LINE IN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO.

STARTING TO SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AHEAD OF DRY
LINE AND EXPECT FOR THIS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THIS AREA NOT
NEARLY AS BACKED AS NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA...TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE LESS AND DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO ADJUST CURRENT
WATCHES. HAVE INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT AND TRIED TO BE A BIT
MORE DETERMINISTIC AS THIS NEXT AREA OF STORMS DEVELOP AS EXPECT A
FAIRLY SOLID LINE TO DEVELOP BY 00Z.

MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 45-50 KT WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR AS
DRYLINE BEGINS TO MOVE. BASED ON LAA AND NEARBY
OBSERVATIONS...WINDOW FOR SIGNIFICANT WINDS LIMITED AND PEAK
VALUES TOPPING OUT AROUND 48 KTS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN ANY
WIDESPREAD PERSISTENT HIGH WIND THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OUT
OF EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AS LIFT
OVERCOMES THE CAPPING MECHANISM THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL HOWEVER THERE IS AN
INCREASED FAVORABILITY FOR TORNADOES IN YUMA...KIT CARSON...AND
CHEYENNE CO COUNTIES THROUGH AROUND 01Z. DRIER AIR WILL BE PULLED
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY EXPECTED EAST OF HWY 27 AS A
WELL DEVELOPED DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUNDAYS THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD.  WIDE SPREAD LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE CLOSED LOW SUNDAY NIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE A DRY LINE WILL BE
NEAR THE HIGHWAY 27 CORRIDOR.  THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AS A RESULT.  FURTHER
WEST A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE DRY
LINE...BUT THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY AND ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
EAST OF THE DRY LINE SUNDAY EVENING.

OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA.  AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THE WRAP
AROUND CIRCULATION OF THE SURFACE LOW BETWEEN THE DRY LINE AND THE
COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE DEW POINTS TO INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  THIS MAY CAUSE ANY STORMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO BECOME STRONGER.

MONDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SEMI-STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
BORDER OF THE AREA. WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS STILL POOLED ALONG THE
FRONT...STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 10-15 KTS. DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST.

MONDAY NIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH IT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH.  FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAINFALL WITH IT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

FOR 06Z TAFS...AREA OF SMOKE HAS BEEN REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT MCK
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINING
THE SAME SEE NO REASON WHY IT WILL IMPROVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE VISIBILITY FORECAST. DO THINK
THAT AREA OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AS MOISTURE POOLS IN EASTERN
CWA...SO EXPECT VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 3 MILES TO MAINTAIN ITSELF
THROUGH SUNRISE. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 2000 FT CEILINGS AT GLD AS
SMALL FINGER OF LOW STRATUS WRAPPING AROUND LOW CIRCULATION...BUT
EXPECT THIS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JRM




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...JUST ENTERING KENTUCKY. EARLIER A COUPLE OF
STORM CLUSTERS...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS...PASSED THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE LEFT STILL RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. WHILE THE SKIES ARE COVERED BY MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...THERE IS A LOWER BATCH JUST NORTH OF JKL SHOWING UP IN
SOME OF THE OBS AND AFFECTING THE TAFS THERE. ALSO...IN PLACES
THE CLOUDS ARE THIN ENOUGH THAT PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE MILD AND NOT TOO FAR FROM
60 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR REGARDLESS OF ELEVATION. DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKEWISE RUNNING ON THE MOIST SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 55 TO 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT EAST KENTUCKY
SQUEEZED BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOME RIDGING TO THE SOUTH TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE BROAD
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL START TO OPEN UP ALLOWING
ENERGY TO SPILL EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE RIDGE SLIPS PAST TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW CARRYING ESCAPING ENERGY PACKETS INTO OUR AREA...
THE STRONGEST OF THESE ARRIVING LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT WILL AGAIN FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND WITH PARTICULAR
FOCUS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY DESPITE THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA. A LACK
OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LIMITED SFC CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TO LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TODAY TO JUST SHOWERS...THANKS TO A CAP
BETWEEN 750 AND 800 MBS PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. A SMALL THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY RETURNS
NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
A RETURN TO OUR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NORM...
ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG. FOR MONDAY...WE WILL BE BACK
IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF A FAIRLY DEEP
SFC LOW THE WELL TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD
WITH SMALL TO MODERATE CAPES AND SUB ZERO LIS. ACCORDINGLY...
HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST
ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN
THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS TO MAKE THEM
ADHERE MORE TOWARD STANDARD DIURNAL PEAKS AND VALLEYS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016
MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AND
SMALL SCALE FEATURES THIS MORNING LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

ENERGY IS EJECTED OUT OF SOUTHWEST LOW WHICH TRACKS ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WINDOW. THE
CORE OF THE PARENT LOW MAKES IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE
PHASING WITH ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA...BC. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION AND GRADUALLY SHEARS OUT BY LATE WED. THEREAFTER
THE LARGER PHASED SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES AFFECTING
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE FIRST SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SECOND DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SATURDAY.

AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE COMMONWEALTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SOUTHWEST TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST OF TWO AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL THEN PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AS A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER...SECOND BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND
IMPULSE WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS OUR AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT BEST
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES AND SFC
BOUNDARIES...GENERALLY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AFTER PASSAGE
OF THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT DAILY HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL EVEN
CLIMB TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK. DAILY HIGHS DROP BACK DOWN INTO
THE 60S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

FOR THE MOST PART...CIGS WILL BE ABOVE 3K FEET AGL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER EAST KENTUCKY. WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...SOME MVFR VIS OR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. THROUGH IT
ALL...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 220 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THE EARLIER ORGANIZED STORMS HAVE WOUND DOWN FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY LEAVING BEHIND WANING LIGHTER SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE ADDITIONAL BATCHES OF MAINLY SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA. DO
EXPECT THESE TO FADE OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE...AS WELL. DID ADJUST THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS PER THE
LATEST CONSSHORT GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. ALSO SENT OUT A
NEW SET OF ZONES AND HWO DROPPING THE WATCH EARLIER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

MADE A NUMBER OF ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH REGARDS TO
ONGOING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES...WEATHER GRIDS...AND QPF GRIDS WERE ALL UPDATED TO
BETTER REFLECT THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORM AS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS BECOME SUBSEVERE OVER THE PAST
30 MINUTES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE STORMS FOR SIGNS OF
REINTENSIFICATION...BUT AT THIS TIME THE STORMS ARE LOOKING NON
THREATENING. THESE STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BY
12Z SUNDAY. THE UPDATED FORECAST HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GRADUALLY MEANDERING ACROSS THE HUDSON AND
JAMES BAY REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PASS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION
TO END THE WEEKEND...BEFORE STARTING TO RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WHERE
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT...BUT SHOULD PEAK THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WHEN UPPER FORCING INCREASES.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS WHAT BECOMES OF
THE CONVECTION APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WHAT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION CONTINUES...BUT RATHER DEEP
MIXING IS OFFSETTING THIS SOMEWHAT AS WELL. SBCAPES AND MUCAPES
ARE GENERALLY NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION
THOUGH WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND MOIST ADVECTION MAY REACH 1000
J/KG BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT WIND FIELDS
ALOFT LEADS TO A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE WOULD POINT TOWARD
THE CONVECTION APPROACHING THE AREA AFFECTING THE CWA IN A COUPLE
OF TIER OF COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING. POPS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWA AS A RESULT FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...LOCATIONS
NEAR THE TN BORDER WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. AS
ALREADY NOTED THE HIGHEST POPS...LIKELY...WERE USED IN MOST
LOCATIONS FOR THIS EVENING OR THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
IN MOST LOCATIONS. VALLEY FOG COULD BECOME A CONCERN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT PENDING THE DEGREE OF CLEARING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.

A NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BOUNDARY STARTING TO PARK ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF I 64 TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE TN
BORDER. LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
SINCE YESTERDAY. AT THIS POINT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE...WITH A TYPICAL DECLINE WITH PASSING TIME. FOR DETAILS...A
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
AS THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIP MAINLY NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS LEAVES JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. A LARGE BUT WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH ITS PASSING COINCIDING WITH AN INCREASED FLOW OFF OF
THE GULF. THIS WILL PRESENT AN INCREASE IN POP FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A CORRESPONDING DROP IN POP. AFTER THIS...A LARGE UPPER
LOW ROLLING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW WILL HAVE A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. THE TROUGH AND FRONT SHOULD
APPROACH ON THURSDAY AND MOVE PAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
REPRESENTS ANOTHER PEAK IN POP. BEHIND THIS...MODELS SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST BRING US A DRIER AIR MASS
ON FRIDAY. YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST AND DEEPENS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRINGS BACK ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016


FOR THE MOST PART...CIGS WILL BE ABOVE 3K FEET AGL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER EAST KENTUCKY. WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...SOME MVFR VIS OR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. THROUGH IT
ALL...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

 403 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A MIDLEVEL TROUGH/ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LOWER PENINSULA THIS MORNING. A SHEARED BUT DISTINCT SHORTWAVE WILL
SHUTTLE ALONG THE WESTERN OUTER WALL TO THIS COLD POOL TRACKING
DIRECTLY THROUGH THE SAGINAW BAY REGION AND THUMB. LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY NOW OCCURRING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE CENTRAL UPPER
PENINSULA IS BEING FORCED BY DCVA DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
WHILE NOT AT A WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...MODEL DATA THE PAST 24 TO 36
HOURS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING THIS SOLUTION. THIS
LENDS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT ISO-SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BOTH THE WRF-NMM AND THE HRRR HAVE BEEN THE
MOST CONSISTENT WITH TIMING BETWEEN 15-22Z. WHILE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE THUMB COUNTIES...IN-HOUSE DIAGNOSTIC TR-
ISENTROPIC FIELDS SHOW A COMPACT REGION OF HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT/SATURATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME PASSING SPRINKLES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. FOR THIS ISSUANCE DID TRIM AND REFINE THE LOW
CHANCE POPS TO THE THUMB...WITH INTRODUCING CHANCE OF SPRINKLE
MENTION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AMOUNTS...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME LIGHT IMPACTS TO PUBLIC INTERESTS.

CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL ALLOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD AGGRESSIVELY INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. LAKE INFLUENCE AND A LOW SFC DEWPOINT AIR MASS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICK THIS EVENING WITH MIDDLE 30S POSSIBLE IN
THE THUMB. FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST HIGH ENOUGH
TO LIMIT MUCH FROST WORDING FOR THE EASTERN THUMB. THIS COULD CHANGE
WITH A BETTER LOOK AT AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S.

STABLE SPRING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF PICTURE
PERFECT WEATHER TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FOR MONDAY. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY TRAJECTORY WHICH SHOULD KEEP
SOME CHILL IN THE AIR. TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN
THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS..50S IN THE THUMB.

THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE FOR THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEATHER DURING THE
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WILL BE THE UNWINDING OF THE OLD SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES CUTOFF LOW AND THE PERSISTENCE OF A BLOCKING PATTERN
OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. EACH SUCCESSIVE ITERATION OF THE NWP
SUITE AS BEEN ADVERTISING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THIS MIDWEEK
PATTERN WILL PLAY OUT. SOLUTIONS A DAY OR SO AGO WERE SUGGESTING
SOME STALLING OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...RUNS TONIGHT
ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT AT LEAST A PORTION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL NOW BE ALLOWED TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD. GIVEN THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN THE SOLUTIONS CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW IN EXACT
RAIN CHANCE TIMING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THERE IS A FEAR THAT
THIS MIDWEEK PERIOD IS RIPE FOR OVERFORECASTING AND BROADBRUSHING
TOO MUCH POPS AND HAVE MADE A CONCERTED EFFORT TO LIMIT THIS. WILL
COMMUNICATE THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN INCREASING SIGNAL AGAIN THAT
A REASONABLE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE
MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION THAT WILL EXIST OVER THE CWA. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL LIKELY REMAIN A CONCERN RIGHT UP TO THE EVENT...SO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. TRANSPARENCY TO THE CLOUD EARLY IN
THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.MARINE...

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER LAKE HURON THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...PERSISTING ON
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH WILL BRING NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT MAINLY JUST ACROSS
LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST CLAIR AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER LAKE HURON.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1200 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CLOUD BACK UP BUT
MAINLY ABOVE 7KFT THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK TROUGH
TRIES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS DO ADVERTISE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINK THE AIR MASS IS TOO DRY
AND CIGS WILL STAY TOO HIGH FOR ANYTHING TO HIT THE GROUND.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD GUST
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BEFORE THE HIGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE AND CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE AGAIN.

FOR DTW...NONE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
INTO THE GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG OVER WRN CANADA AND DEEP TROFFING
OVER ERN NAMERICA. MUCH COOLER AIR HAS INVADED THE UPR LKS FOLLOWING
COLD FROPA LAST NGT...WITH SFC TEMPS PEAKING BTWN 60-65 OVER THE
SCENTRAL AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN LLVL NLY FLOW AHEAD OF APRCHG
SFC HI PRES RDG. RH HAS DIPPED TO AS LO AS ABOUT 25 PCT WITH INFLUX
OF LLVL DRY AIR/DAYTIME MIXING. SKIES ARE MOSUNNY THIS AFTN...BUT
DIURNAL CU ARE NOW DVLPG OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF. THERE IS ANOTHER
SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU NW ONTARIO WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF...AND
THERE ARE MORE CLDS OVER NW ONTARIO/MN ARROWHEAD MOVING INTO NW LK
SUP ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTER ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED ON THE 12Z YPL RAOB
AND 00Z-12Z H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 130M REPORTED AT INL AND YPL.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLD TRENDS/POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TNGT AHEAD OF SHRTWV/SFC TROF APRCHG FM THE NW.

LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...DESPITE THE RATHER DRY LLVL AIR AND ACYC
NATURE OF THE H925-85 NW FLOW OVER THE CWA...SOME OF THE HIER RES
MODELS STILL GENERATE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG MAINLY
ALONG AXIS OF LLVL CNVGC/STEEPER MID LVL LAPSE RATES FCST OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA. CONSIDERING THE MOISTER ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z
YPL RAOB...THE EXPANDING INSTABILITY CLDS TO THE NW SPILLING OUT
INTO LK SUP...AND FAIRLY SHARP H5 HGT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC THAT IS FCST TO IMPACT THE CWA AHEAD OF
APRCHG SHRTWV...OPTED TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS WHERE MANY OF
THE HIER RES GUIDANCE IS GENERATING THE PCPN. OTHER AREAS WL SEE SCT-
BKN CLD COVER. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC BEHIND SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES TROF PASSAGE WL CAUSE ANY
SHOWERS AND THE CLDS TO DIMINISH OVERNGT. MIN TEMPS WL FALL INTO THE
CHILLY 30S AT MOST PLACES.

SUN...HI PRES BLDG OVER THE UPR LKS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIRMASS WITH PWAT NOT FAR FM 0.25 INCH WL BRING MOSUNNY WX TO UPR
MI. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO RANGE FM ABOUT 0C OVER THE ERN CWA TO ARND
4C OVER THE SW CWA BY 00Z MON...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS NEAR 65 ALONG
THE WI BORDER AND IN THE 50S OVER THE E. WITH A LIGHT NNE FLOW OFF
LK SUP...EXPECT HI TEMPS NEAR THE SHORE TO HOLD IN THE 40S. LIGHTER
WINDS UNDER FLATTER PRES GRADIENT WL LIMIT FIRE WX CONCERNS EVEN
THOUGH DAYTIME MIXING WL DROP MIN AFTN RH AS LO AS 20-25 PCT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND GREAT LAKES GIVES WAY TO UPPER
RIDGING MON INTO TUE. RIDGING BRIEF THOUGH AS UPPER TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CONUS LIFTS ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUE INTO WED WITH ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH AND STRONGER SFC LOW/COLD FRONT CROSSING THU. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MON INTO MOST OF TUE. MOST SUNSHINE WILL
OCCUR ON MON SO THAT WILL BE THE DEEPER MIXING DAY WHEN TEMPS REACH
WELL INTO THE 60S AND RH VALUES DROP TO 20-25 PCT. ESE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST OVER WESTERN HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN
THE AFTN. MID CLOUDS MOVE IN AHEAD OF FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SHEARING
OUT VORT MAX ON TUE. NAM/ECMWF INDICATE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
OUT OF THE MID CLOUDS MAINLY WEST. GFS AND GEM-NH STAY DRY. MOST
CONFIDENT THAT CNTRL AND EAST STAY DRY AS THOSE AREAS ARE CLOSER TO
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE/DRY AIR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT
RAIN WEST OR NEAR WI BORDER. COULD SEE BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGE BRING
DRY WEATHER MOST OF WED AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LOW. UNCERTAIN ON EXTENT
OF MID CLOUDS BUT PROBABLY WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY
IF THE SECOND UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW/COLD FRONT SLOW ANY. SINCE H85
TEMPS ARE PUSHING 6-8C AND THERE COULD BE SOME SUN...RAISED TEMPS
OVER WEST CWA TO TO LOWER 70S WITH 60S ELSEWHERE.

ARRIVAL OF UPPER TROUGH/DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND PVA COMBINES WITH
COLD FRONT TO BRING BATCH OF SHOWERS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN WED NIGHT
INTO THU. QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE UP TO 0.25 INCH WITH SOME
OF THE WETTER MODELS EVEN SHOWING AMOUNTS IN PARTS OF CWA UP TO 0.50
INCH. THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN DRIER THAN MODELS HAVE SHOWED AT TIMES.
EVEN A WIDESPREAD QUARTER INCH OF RAIN WOULD BE WELCOME GIVEN THE
DRY CONDITIONS LATELY. NO SFC BASED OR ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO NO
TSRA EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT. UPPER LOW IN VCNTY WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FRI INTO SAT...AND WITH H85 TEMPS
DOWN TO -8C WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES LESS THAN 1290DAM COULD EVEN
BE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SFC
TEMPS STILL MARGINAL FOR THAT WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 30S...SO WILL
KEEP PTYPE AS RAIN FOR NOW.

LASTLY...WEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COULD BE QUITE BREEZY ON
FRI...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WHERE IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT GUSTS COULD REACH OVER 40 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BECOMING DRIER TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

W WINDS UP TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE N TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A LO PRES TROUGH. THEN WITH HUDSON BAY HI
PRES DOMINATING INTO AT LEAST MID WEEK...EXPECT THE N WINDS TO SHIFT
TOWARD THE E UP TO 20 KTS INTO WED. AN APPROACHING LO PRES WILL
CAUSE THE WINDS TO TURN MORE TO THE S BY THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 229 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
INTO THE GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG OVER WRN CANADA AND DEEP TROFFING
OVER ERN NAMERICA. MUCH COOLER AIR HAS INVADED THE UPR LKS FOLLOWING
COLD FROPA LAST NGT...WITH SFC TEMPS PEAKING BTWN 60-65 OVER THE
SCENTRAL AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN LLVL NLY FLOW AHEAD OF APRCHG
SFC HI PRES RDG. RH HAS DIPPED TO AS LO AS ABOUT 25 PCT WITH INFLUX
OF LLVL DRY AIR/DAYTIME MIXING. SKIES ARE MOSUNNY THIS AFTN...BUT
DIURNAL CU ARE NOW DVLPG OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF. THERE IS ANOTHER
SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU NW ONTARIO WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF...AND
THERE ARE MORE CLDS OVER NW ONTARIO/MN ARROWHEAD MOVING INTO NW LK
SUP ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTER ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED ON THE 12Z YPL RAOB
AND 00Z-12Z H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 130M REPORTED AT INL AND YPL.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLD TRENDS/POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TNGT AHEAD OF SHRTWV/SFC TROF APRCHG FM THE NW.

LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...DESPITE THE RATHER DRY LLVL AIR AND ACYC
NATURE OF THE H925-85 NW FLOW OVER THE CWA...SOME OF THE HIER RES
MODELS STILL GENERATE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG MAINLY
ALONG AXIS OF LLVL CNVGC/STEEPER MID LVL LAPSE RATES FCST OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA. CONSIDERING THE MOISTER ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z
YPL RAOB...THE EXPANDING INSTABILITY CLDS TO THE NW SPILLING OUT
INTO LK SUP...AND FAIRLY SHARP H5 HGT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC THAT IS FCST TO IMPACT THE CWA AHEAD OF
APRCHG SHRTWV...OPTED TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS WHERE MANY OF
THE HIER RES GUIDANCE IS GENERATING THE PCPN. OTHER AREAS WL SEE SCT-
BKN CLD COVER. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC BEHIND SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES TROF PASSAGE WL CAUSE ANY
SHOWERS AND THE CLDS TO DIMINISH OVERNGT. MIN TEMPS WL FALL INTO THE
CHILLY 30S AT MOST PLACES.

SUN...HI PRES BLDG OVER THE UPR LKS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIRMASS WITH PWAT NOT FAR FM 0.25 INCH WL BRING MOSUNNY WX TO UPR
MI. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO RANGE FM ABOUT 0C OVER THE ERN CWA TO ARND
4C OVER THE SW CWA BY 00Z MON...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS NEAR 65 ALONG
THE WI BORDER AND IN THE 50S OVER THE E. WITH A LIGHT NNE FLOW OFF
LK SUP...EXPECT HI TEMPS NEAR THE SHORE TO HOLD IN THE 40S. LIGHTER
WINDS UNDER FLATTER PRES GRADIENT WL LIMIT FIRE WX CONCERNS EVEN
THOUGH DAYTIME MIXING WL DROP MIN AFTN RH AS LO AS 20-25 PCT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND MON THROUGH WED AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH AND AN UPPER LOW OR TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE W. HIGHS MON IN
THE 60S AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORES INCREASE TO MID 60S TO MID
70S ON WED. THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE TURNING COOLER AS THAT UPPER
LOW OR TROUGH MOVE IN...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
FRI AND SAT.

LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE CONTINUE ON MON
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND RH IMPROVES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AREA SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP SW OF THE CWA AT LEAST INTO WED. MODELS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT MAYBE SOME PRECIP BRUSHING THE WI BORDER MON NIGHT INTO
WED...BUT THE MODELS WITH THE BEST CONTINUITY HAVE KEPT THAT PRECIP
JUST SW OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW END AND CONFINED TO
THE WI BORDER INTO WED. WED NIGHT AND THU MAY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SFC COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. FRI AND SAT LOOK WETTER...BUT MORE SHOWERS THAN
WIDESPREAD RAIN...AS THE UPPER LOW OR TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BECOMING DRIER TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

W WINDS UP TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE N TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A LO PRES TROUGH. THEN WITH HUDSON BAY HI
PRES DOMINATING INTO AT LEAST MID WEEK...EXPECT THE N WINDS TO SHIFT
TOWARD THE E UP TO 20 KTS INTO WED. AN APPROACHING LO PRES WILL
CAUSE THE WINDS TO TURN MORE TO THE S BY THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
420 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 419 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

Today - Monday Night:

A very active period is in store for CWA with several rounds of
potentially heavy rainfall, possibly a few severe storms over the
western counties today and a better chance for severe storms over
the western third of the CWA on Monday.

The forecast for today is a bit complex owing to an outflow boundary
left from Saturday`s convection over northern MO stalling near the
MO River. This boundary now appears to have reinforced or redefined
the frontal boundary which is expected to help magnify today`s
convection and QPF. However, owing to differences between the
strength and quality of model moisture return plus location of QPF
have opted not to go with any type of flood headlines.

Water vapor imagery depicts a vorticity max now over southwest OK
flying northeast. This feature lies within the broad southwesterly
flow tied to the large closed upper system over the western U.S.
Believe this is the signal many of the operational models have
continually picked up on fore several runs for developing elevated
convection over east central KS this morning. GFS/NAM quickly
spread the convection downstream across the CWA during the late
morning and early afternoon hours. This is also supported by the
last half dozen HRRR model runs so have focused highest PoPs in a
general west-east swath through the center of the CWA. This also
ties in nicely with the expected location of the surface boundary.

This boundary will eventually lift northward tonight with more
widespread convection focusing across northern MO as the southerly
low level jet gets cranking. Believe the severe threat will be muted
by the elevated convection, extensive cloud cover which will limit
the degree of instability plus the low-level jet axis will be well
to the west over central KS. Should convection be delayed until late
afternoon our severe risk will increase some as it will be able to
tap into moderate instability and 0-6km shear of 40kts.

Tonight`s convection should be waning Monday morning as it exits the
eastern CWA. However, as the western U.S. upper system nudges east
it will send a second charge of energy into the mid MO River Valley.
Arrival time looks a bit more favorable plus deeper moisture will be
in place as the h8 jet axis shifts into far eastern KS. This favors
a better setup for severe for the western portion of the CWA.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

While nowhere near as active as Sunday and Monday, this period will
still feature the remnants of the departing closed upper system on
Tuesday followed by a deepening upper trough swinging down through
the Northern Rockies and across the Northern/Central Plains on
Wednesday. This latter feature will send a cold front front
southeast, generating scattered convection as the front passes
through the CWA.

Thursday - Saturday

The Northern/Central Plains closed upper system will rotate north
and stall over south central Canada. This should proved one dry day
day on Thursday. By Friday, northwest flow will set up under the
Canadian upper low with an upper level speed max generating what
appears to be a baroclinic leaf of showers that spreads quickly
across the CWA on Friday.

Under a surge of high pressure a cooler and drier airmass will move
into the central U.S. for the start of the weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

VFR conditions are expected overnight and into the daylight hours of
Sunday morning after which thunderstorms are expected. Currently,
expectations are that thunderstorms will bubble up in eastern Kansas
and western Missouri late Sunday morning, with activity persisting
through the afternoon and possibly lingering through the overnight
into Monday. Have used a verity of VCTS and TEMPO groups to highlight
the current best timing for the storms, but CIGs and surface VIS are
both low confidence.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...MJ
Aviation...Cutter




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS HASTINGS NE

 1210 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

UPDATED THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. STILL A COUPLE OF STRONGER
STORMS IN THE NC KANSAS POSSIBLE THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY WILL BE SUB SEVERE. HRRR AND 4KM WRF BOTH JUST
MOVE THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS WILL WITH WEAKENING TREND TONIGHT.
PULLED ANY EARLY MORNING RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY AS WELL. LOWERED
DEWPOINTS IN NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH A STEADY EAST WIND
PIPING IN DRY AIR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER FOR TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMOKE
FROM CANADA. THIS MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...IT APPEARS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
HAS STALLED IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT...WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND TO THE SOUTH WINDS ARE FROM
THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE LOW THERE IS A WAVE THAT WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE UPPER WAVE
THAT IS MOVING THIS DIRECTION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS STILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL
AND WIND WITH THESE. ALL OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY COME TO AN END BY
MORNING.

MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE SUNDAY MORNING DRY...BUT A FEW HAVE
SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING. THE OTHER POSSIBILITY
IS SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE MORNING. HAVE ONLY KEPT SOME VERY
LOW POPS DURING THE MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING IN FROM
THE UPPER LOW ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
KEEPS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

ALOFT: THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH THE FLOW DEAMPLIFYING AND THE TROF
TRANSITIONING INTO THE ERN USA IN THE 5-10 DAY PERIOD. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON THE UPR LOW ALONG THE WY/NEB BORDER WILL DRIFT OVER NEB
WHILE THE TRAILING TROF INTO THE DESERT SW SWINGS UNDERNEATH INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A POTENT TROF WILL BE DIVING INTO THE
NRN ROCKIES. THIS TROF WILL CLOSE OFF MON NIGHT AND BECOME DOMINANT
AS IT SWINGS THRU THE DAKOTAS TUE-WED. THE INITIAL LOW/TROF WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE MEAN TROF AND DEAMPLIFY TUE AS IT HEADS FOR THE
GREAT LAKES. THE MEAN TROF WILL CROSS THE FCST AREA WED. SPREAD
INCREASES THU IN THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE GFS/EC/GEM...BUT THE GENERAL
THEME FOLLOWS THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH LOW AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW
DEVELOPING AND REMAINING THRU SAT...AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND THE TROF MOVES INTO THE E.

SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT MOVED THRU TODAY WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY ACROSS NRN KS. WELL-DEFINED LOW PRES OVER KS WILL BECOME
ILL-DEFINED MON-TUE...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS...SOME OF WHICH WILL
ATTEMPT TO DEPART THE CNTRL PLAINS FOR THE MIDWEST ONLY TO MEET
THEIR DEMISE. A STRONG COOL FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROF DROPPING
OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE FCST AREA TUE.
A TROF WILL FOLLOW WED WITH HIGH PRES SLIDING THRU THU. ANOTHER
CANADIAN COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU FRI WITH HIGH PRES SINKING INTO
THE NRN PLAINS SAT.

SOME DAILY DETAILS...

SUN NIGHT: TSTMS WILL BE ON-GOING AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY
LIFT N ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PROBABLY CONGEALING INTO ONE OR TWO
MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY A SVR WIND/HAIL
THREAT UNTIL ROUGHLY 10 PM. STRONG FORCING WITH A VORT MAX AND LEFT
FRONT QUAD OF 100 KT UPR-LVL JET STREAK. TSTMS END FROM SW-NE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OR CLEARING WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK PRES GRAD.

MON: PATCHY FOG AND A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS COULD LINGER IN THE MORNING.
ANY SUNSHINE WILL SELF-DESTRUCT INTO ADDITIONAL SCT TSTMS. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN SUN AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL WEAKEN TO 10-15 KTS WITH THE UPR LOW OVERHEAD. PULSE
STORMS WILL RULE. TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH DWPTS IN THE 50S WILL RESULT
IN UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE E OF HWY 281. SO THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
STRONG STORM WITH DIME SIZE HAIL AND G40 MPH.

TUE: DEPARTURE OF THE TROF AND ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN CONSIDERABLY MORE SUNSHINE. BUT A BAND OF SHWRS WILL MOVE
THRU PROBABLY DURING THE NIGHT. WE`VE PROBABLY OVER-PLAYED THE RISK
OF THUNDER AS DWPTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE 40S TUE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LACKING AND WILL REQUIRE FURTHER ASSESSMENT.

WED: POSSIBLY SOME LEFTOVER MORNING SHWRS IN THE COLD SECTOR. COOLER
WITH PLENTY OF DIURNAL STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY S-CNTRL NEB.

THU-SAT: PROBABLY DRY. A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SLATED FOR FRI...
BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. THE LAST 2 EC/GFS/GEM RUNS
ARE TRYING TO OUTPUT LIGHT/SPOTTY QPF AT TIMES...BUT THERE IS NO
CONSISTENT SIGNAL LEADING TO LOW PREDICTABILITY. THE FCST DOES
CONTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS...BUT WOULD PREFER
HAVING THE FCST DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

IFR CONDITIONS IN GENERAL ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH KEARNEY
AND GRAND ISLAND. PRETTY HIT AND MISS COVERAGE. MIDDLE PART OF THE
DAY SUNDAY LOOKS DRY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA
THE LAST PART OF THE FORECAST AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

 417 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINAS TODAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES
ACROSS OUR REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS FRONT MOVING FARTHER NORTH INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE CWFA AS WELL.

FOR TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT FROM THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES
ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP INDUCE SOME WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION (800 MB-600 MB) ACROSS THE SRN CWFA. THE RESULT WILL
BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS MOSTLY KEEP THE SHOWER THREAT IN THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATER HRRR RUNS TRY TO CREEP IT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S WHERE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF PCPN
IS EXPECTED...TO THE UPPER 60S WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THIN AND
SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. WE
SHOULD SEE A RESPITE IN THE THREAT FOR PCPN.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL CAUSE CLOUDS
AND SOME PCPN TO DEVELOP...SLOWLY SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER SO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARE ONLY WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

ON MONDAY...A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODELS...THE NAM...AND
THE ECMWF WERE USED FOR THE FORECAST. THE GFS LOOKED OVERDONE IN
TERMS OF HEAVIER QPF ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES. STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY CREEP INTO OUR SRN CWFA DURING THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTHWARD INTO NRN INDIANA AND NRN OHIO. THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT HAVE
DECIDED TO STAY AT HIGH CHANCE AT THIS TIME. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOW...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ONLY SHOWERS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
A LITTLE MORE INTO OUR AREA BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME QUASI
STATIONARY AT SOME POINT. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASE IN PCPN CHANCES ALONG WITH AN ADDED THREAT FOR
THUNDER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGER OF
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COVERAGE WANING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. MEANWHILE...OUR LINGERING BOUNDARY MAY
FINALLY PUSH AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

HAVE USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE OR CONSENSUS GUIDANCE (MOS AND
RAW MODEL TEMPERATURE OUTPUT) THROUGH THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S. A COLD
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...LEADING TO A DRYING TREND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE CINCINNATI TAF
SITES...AND A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ASIDE FROM A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS
NEAR COLUMBUS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT BEFORE MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT THE
CINCINNATI TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
CHANCE REMAINS TOO LIMITED TO PUT SPECIFICALLY IN THE
FORECAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EITHER WAY. WHILE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR CINCINNATI...WESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10
KNOTS WILL SET UP FOR COLUMBUS AND DAYTON.

HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER GOING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO INCREASE AT
THE FAR END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HATZOS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

 412 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINAS TODAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES
ACROSS OUR REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS FRONT MOVING FARTHER NORTH INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE CWFA AS WELL.

FOR TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT FROM THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES
ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP INDUCE SOME WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION (800 MB-600 MB) ACROSS THE SRN CWFA. THE RESULT WILL
BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS MOSTLY KEEP THE SHOWER THREAT IN THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATER HRRR RUNS TRY TO CREEP IT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S WHERE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF PCPN
IS EXPECTED...TO THE UPPER 60S WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THIN AND
SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. WE
SHOULD SEE A RESPITE IN THE THREAT FOR PCPN.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL CAUSE CLOUDS
AND SOME PCPN TO DEVELOP...SLOWLY SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER SO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARE ONLY WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

ON MONDAY...A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODELS...THE NAM...AND
THE ECMWF WERE USED FOR THE FORECAST. THE GFS LOOKED OVERDONE IN
TERMS OF HEAVIER QPF ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES. STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY CREEP INTO OUR SRN CWFA DURING THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTHWARD INTO NRN INDIANA AND NRN OHIO. THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT HAVE
DECIDED TO STAY AT HIGH CHANCE AT THIS TIME. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOW...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ONLY SHOWERS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
A LITTLE MORE INTO OUR AREA BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME QUASI
STATIONARY AT SOME POINT. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASE IN PCPN CHANCES ALONG WITH AN ADDED THREAT FOR
THUNDER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGER OF
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COVERAGE WANING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. MEANWHILE...OUR LINGERING BOUNDARY MAY
FINALLY PUSH AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

HAVE USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE OR CONSENSUS GUIDANCE (MOS AND
RAW MODEL TEMPERATURE OUTPUT) THROUGH THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S. A COLD
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...LEADING TO A DRYING TREND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE CINCINNATI TAF
SITES...AND A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ASIDE FROM A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS
NEAR COLUMBUS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT BEFORE MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT THE
CINCINNATI TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
CHANCE REMAINS TOO LIMITED TO PUT SPECIFICALLY IN THE
FORECAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EITHER WAY. WHILE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR CINCINNATI...WESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10
KNOTS WILL SET UP FOR COLUMBUS AND DAYTON.

HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER GOING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO INCREASE AT
THE FAR END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HATZOS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 1249 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MILDER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS TRANSITORY AND SMALL IN AREAL COVERAGE. WILL KEEP THE POPS
IN THE LOW CHC RANGE AS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER KBFD-KPIT
MOVES THRU. DEWPOINTS VERY LOW AND CONVERGENCE MINIMAL-NAUGHT.
THUNDER CHC IS NOW SO SMALL THAT NO MORE NEED FOR IT. TIMING OF
ENDING AT OR JUST BEFORE 12Z IN THE EAST LOOKING FINE.

PREV...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT ENTERS MY NWRN ZONES. THERE ARE EVEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES FROM JUST NORTH
OF PITTSBURGH DOWN INTO SERN OHIO. THESE MAY JUST CLIP MY SWRN
ZONES SO THERE IS A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WELL BEFORE
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND AN INCREASING NW
BREEZE IN THE 08-12Z PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
STRONG DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND GENERALLY WEAK SFC-850 MB COLD
ADVECTION WILL BRING DRIER AIR BUT QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY.

SOME INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH UNDER THE LOWER
HEIGHTS AND BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG 130-140 KT
300 MB JET MAX.

DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CREATE
MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES. WILL HOLD ONTO THE 20-30 POPS IN THE
NORTHERN TIER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH NIL POPS FURTHER SOUTH.

THERE WILL BE AN APPROX 10 MB PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE IN
THE MORNING AND THEN MIXING UP TO 5-6KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
MIXING WILL TAP HIGHER WINDS AT CLOUD LEVEL AND SHOULD LEAD TO
GUSTS INTO THE 20S OR EVEN NEAR 30MPH ON THE HIGHER RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW PWAT AIR SLIDES OVER THE STATE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR TOO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY LOW
TEMPS EARLY MONDAY - IN THE 30S AND 40S. PATCHY LIGHT FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS 05-12Z MONDAY.

THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP TO FORM/ADVECT A WARM
FRONT NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY EVENING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN MTNS OF THE STATE...AND WILL PERSIST
AT ABOUT THE SAME AREAL COVERAGE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CHC FOR
SHOWERS (AND SCATTERED TSRA) INCREASES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS SWRLY LLJ TRANSPORTS BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.

CHC FOR PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA WILL PEAK
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BEFORE THE SFC FRONT BEGINS TO OCCLUDE
AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL.

LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND...NRN STREAM ENERGY WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME JETLETS TO ITS SOUTH WILL BRING LOW CHCS FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA. TEMPS WILL START OUT
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM AIR INTO AND JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO NW PA AT 0330Z. SCT -SHRA IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WILL WORK INTO CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND NOT CAUSE ANY VIS RESTRICTIONS.

MAIN CONCERN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW CIGS AT KBFD/KJST JUST BEHIND FRONT...WHERE LOW LVL
MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH AND NW FLOW ASCENDS THE MTNS.
LATEST SREF AND HRRR HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY...ROUGHLY BTWN
06Z-10Z AT KBFD AND BTWN 07Z-11Z AT KJST. FURTHER EAST...THE CHC
OF IFR CIGS APPEARS VERY LOW...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE ASSOC WITH FROPA DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS.

GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY...AS STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS MIXING THE SFC IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. MDL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WINDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-14Z WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO NR 25KTS THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED-THU...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY WESTERN PA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
MECHANICAL PROBLEM WITH KCCX FORCED IT INTO STANDBY MODE EARLY
THIS MORNING. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED. RETURN TO SERVICE WILL
DEPEND ON WHEN THE PARTS ARRIVE EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
EQUIPMENT...




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ABERDEEN SD

 346 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM FAR E SD THROUGH N IA WILL QUICKLY
EXIT TO S IN THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND INCREASED DEW POINTS WILL BE...LIMITING FIRE CONCERNS.
ALSO FIRE WISE...SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE A MINOR NUISANCE...WITH VIS
EVEN AT RAP FALLING AS A RESULT. CONTINUED MENTION OF PATCHY SMOKE
IN THE FCST FOR ALL BUT THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA TODAY.

HIGHEST TEMPS THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S W TO THE LOW 70S E. MID 60S WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE LOWEST RH WILL AGAIN BE OVER NE SD AND W CENTRAL
MN...WITH MIN RH AGAIN AROUND 20 PERCENT. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY 10-
15MPH OR LESS. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN AS WE MOVE
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LINGERING SMOKE SHOULD EXIT NE THIS
EVENING AS PRECIP NEARS FROM THE SW.

WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL WAIT UNTIL MONDAY-
MONDAY NIGHT...WILL STILL HAVE SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THE SW CORNER
OF THE CWA FOR THE MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. TS POTENTIAL LOOKS
VERY LIMITED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

INCREASED RAINFALL SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
QPF 0.5-0.75IN OVER THE S TIER OF COUNTIES. ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF
THINGS...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS WILL FALL NE OF MBG. THIS WILL BE
WHILE THE SFC LOW OVER W KS MOVES OVER CENTRAL KS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH A PORTION OF THE LOW LIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL SD DURING
THE DAY...AND THE 500MB LOW OVER UT/CO/S WY MOVES OVERHEAD. SIMILAR
THINKING FOR MONDAY WITH MAINLY JUST EMBEDDED TS POTENTIAL. SE WINDS
AROUND 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE E HALF.

A REINFORCING 500MB LOW ACROSS W MT AT 00Z TUESDAY WILL CROSS E MT
AND INTO THE W DAKOTAS BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT PRECIP
WILL REMAIN INTO TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN 24 HOURS FOR THE EXTENDED.

THE HIGHLIGHTS IN THE OUT PERIODS CONTINUE TO INCLUDE HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES RUNNING GENERALLY ABOUT A CATEGORY TO PERHAPS TWO
CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STILL SHOWING UP EARLIER IN THE PERIOD /TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/ BEFORE A DRIER-WEATHER-PRODUCING-UPPER-
LEVEL-FLOW-PATTERN SETS UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE
WEEKEND. 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS 925HPA THERMAL PROGS DIP
BELOW 0C FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST OUT OF THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ON STRONG WINDS MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK
SUGGESTS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE SEEING SOME
HIGHER END WIND ADVISORY /30 TO 40MPH/ TO PERHAPS LOWER END HIGH
WIND WARNING /35 TO 45MPH/ TYPE SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY BE RUNNING
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH BY THE END OF THE DAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SOME
CIRRUS ALONG WITH SOME SMOKE MOVING OVER THE REGION. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE PIR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY MOVE UP CLOSE TO THE PIR AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

 542 AM MST SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN TODAY. IT WILL ALSO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...BETTER CHANCES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE
REGION DURING THE WORKWEEK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. ANTICIPATE
MANY DESERT LOCATIONS REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING
METRO PHOENIX. HAD A FEW REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL FROM PINAL
COUNTY. THE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY A VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL
ARIZONA WHICH LIKELY HELPED PRODUCE SHOWERS LAST EVENING. COULD ALSO
BE AIDED BY A SMALLER VORT MAX WHICH IS RIGHT ON ITS HEELS OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THE HRRR DEPICTS THE SHOWERS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD AND EXITING OUR FORECAST AREA BY 12-13Z. NCEP HI-RES
NMM AND ARW ALSO DEPICTED THIS BUT APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO FAR
SOUTH AND WERE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH 6 HR FORECASTS.

HRRR AND NCEP NMM/ARW DEPICT REDEVELOPMENT OF MINOR CONVECTION OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA INCLUDING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BUT MAIN
EMPHASIS IS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA. LARGER SCALE MODELS
ALSO DEPICT THIS. THIS IS DESPITE THE FACT THAT YET ANOTHER VORT
MAX...CURRENTLY NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA MEXICO COAST...WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SONORA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA WHICH IS WHERE THE ASSOCIATED
Q-FORCING WILL BE. CAPE IS BETTER OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AND THIS IS A
KEY FACTOR BUT SREF INDICATES THERE IS STILL A BIT OF POTENTIAL FOR
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THUS KEPT POPS GOING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...SLIGHT CHANCE OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AND CHANCE OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. ALSO HAVE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING
THROUGH EVENING. TEMPS STAY COOL TODAY THOUGH ALL THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SLIGHT WARMING TODAY AS THE LOW STARTS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A PACIFIC RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
WESTERN STATES DURING THE WORKWEEK. THUS DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND REMAIN ON TRACK. HIGH TEMPS REACH NORMAL VALUES ON
TUESDAY...CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES PEAK ON
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY FOR HIGHS AT MANY DESERT LOCATIONS
...INCLUDING PHOENIX...REACHING 100. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS MAY BEGIN
SATURDAY AS 00Z GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE RIDGE WEAKENING AS A TROUGH
TRACKS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND GFS
LESS SO WITH THE CMC/GEM IN BETWEEN. NAEFS MEAN SUPPORTS THAT AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

SCATTERED ALTOCU WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH BASES GENERALLY RANGING FROM
8K TO 10K FT. MEANWHILE...A THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER
THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE PHOENIX AREA.
VEERING WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN...WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND
18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING TREND WILL FOLLOW OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RETAIN A
WESTERLY COMPONENT AT KIPL AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AT KBLH...THOUGH
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION...NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL INCREASE TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES IN THE LOWER DESERTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS PERCENT RANGE
WILL STEADILY DECREASE EACH DAY UNTIL THEY REACH THE 7 TO 11 PERCENT
RANGE ON THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15
TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/SAWTELLE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

 343 AM MST SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN TODAY. IT WILL ALSO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...BETTER CHANCES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE
REGION DURING THE WORKWEEK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. ANTICIPATE
MANY DESERT LOCATIONS REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING
METRO PHOENIX. HAD A FEW REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL FROM PINAL
COUNTY. THE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY A VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL
ARIZONA WHICH LIKELY HELPED PRODUCE SHOWERS LAST EVENING. COULD ALSO
BE AIDED BY A SMALLER VORT MAX WHICH IS RIGHT ON ITS HEELS OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THE HRRR DEPICTS THE SHOWERS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD AND EXITING OUR FORECAST AREA BY 12-13Z. NCEP HI-RES
NMM AND ARW ALSO DEPICTED THIS BUT APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO FAR
SOUTH AND WERE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH 6 HR FORECASTS.

HRRR AND NCEP NMM/ARW DEPICT REDEVELOPMENT OF MINOR CONVECTION OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA INCLUDING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BUT MAIN
EMPHASIS IS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA. LARGER SCALE MODELS
ALSO DEPICT THIS. THIS IS DESPITE THE FACT THAT YET ANOTHER VORT
MAX...CURRENTLY NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA MEXICO COAST...WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SONORA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA WHICH IS WHERE THE ASSOCIATED
Q-FORCING WILL BE. CAPE IS BETTER OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AND THIS IS A
KEY FACTOR BUT SREF INDICATES THERE IS STILL A BIT OF POTENTIAL FOR
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THUS KEPT POPS GOING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...SLIGHT CHANCE OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AND CHANCE OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. ALSO HAVE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING
THROUGH EVENING. TEMPS STAY COOL TODAY THOUGH ALL THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SLIGHT WARMING TODAY AS THE LOW STARTS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A PACIFIC RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
WESTERN STATES DURING THE WORKWEEK. THUS DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND REMAIN ON TRACK. HIGH TEMPS REACH NORMAL VALUES ON
TUESDAY...CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES PEAK ON
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY FOR HIGHS AT MANY DESERT LOCATIONS
...INCLUDING PHOENIX...REACHING 100. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS MAY BEGIN
SATURDAY AS 00Z GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE RIDGE WEAKENING AS A TROUGH
TRACKS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND GFS
LESS SO WITH THE CMC/GEM IN BETWEEN. NAEFS MEAN SUPPORTS THAT AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

WESTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA DUE TO AN
AREA OF SHOWERS THAT CLIPPED THE WEST VALLEY. THE WEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE
AND VARIABLE TOWARD 12Z. SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL WINDS FOR SUNDAY MORNING
WITH WINDS PICKING BACK UP MORE FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SWINGING TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 7KFT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DECREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION...NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL INCREASE TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TUESDAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS PERCENT RANGE WILL STEADILY DECREASE EACH DAY
UNTIL THEY REACH THE 7 TO 11 PERCENT RANGE ON THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON MOSTLY IN THE TONTO FOOTHILLS AND
S.GILA COUNTY. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES GUSTING
TO 17 TO 24 KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS
WELL AS IN SE CALIFORNIA.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...INIGUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...SAWTELLE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 522 AM PDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE DRY TODAY WITH PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE LOW CENTER IS FAR REMOVED FROM OUR
AREA...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL HAVING A DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. A
BAND OF SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW PASSED THROUGH THE NORTH BAY OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING AS MUCH AS
0.39" OR RAIN AT MOUNT SAINT HELENA IN NORTHWEST NAPA COUNTY AND
UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN SONOMA COUNTY. IN
ADDITION...MEASURABLE RAIN FELL AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN MATEO COUNTY.
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
DISSIPATING AND EXPECT NEARLY ALL PRECIP TO END BY SUNRISE.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA CAN
CURRENTLY BE SEEN MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. SOME OF THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR OUR FORECAST
AREA AROUND SUNRISE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HRRR MODEL...AS WELL
AS THE 00Z ECMWF. SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS MORNING FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR AREA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL END ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY...AND WE SHOULD SEE
PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST.

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES...WHICH
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE SINCE THE MIDDLE OF LAST
WEEK...ARE FORECAST TO WARM BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE BY TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL LIKELY MEAN AREAS OF NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE ECMWF FORECASTS AND UPPER LOW TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH
WOULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA. THE GFS INDICATES THAT SYSTEM WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST WELL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST AND THUS KEEPS ALL PRECIP
WELL TO OUR NORTH...WHICH WAS WHAT THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF
SHOWED. WILL NEED BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT/CONSISTENCY BEFORE
INTRODUCING RAIN CHANCES AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 AM PDT SUNDAY...A MIXED BAG OF CIGS THIS
MORNING WITH BASES AROUND THE AREA VARYING FROM 1200 FEET TO 2500
FEET WITH A FEW SPOTS LIKE SFO AT 4000-5000 FEET. MORNING
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT SFO AND THE APPROACH THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER CHALLANGE IS HOW LONG THE CIGS WILL LAST. GFS SHOWS CIGS
LIFTING TO 4000-5000 FEET AFTER 18Z WHILE NAM KEEPS MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE LESSENING
EFFECT OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS EAST SUPPORT THE GFS
SOLUTION.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR AROUND THE AIRPORT THROUGH 18Z.
CIGS LIFTING BUT A CIG OF 4000-5000 FEET WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR THROUGH 19Z.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR THROUGH 20Z. CIGS RISING INTO VFR
RANGE AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:33 AM PDT SUNDAY...A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
WEST OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS EUREKA CA

 424 AM PDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND FOR THE INTERIOR
WHILE COASTAL AREAS CONTINUE TO SEE A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OFF THE WEST COAST
OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS. MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGES WILL BE CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COAST AND HOW WARM IT GETS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
INTERIOR AREAS WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING TREND HOWEVER 500MB
HEIGHTS ONLY MAX OUT AT AROUND 576 DAM SO RESULTING DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST
DAY BEING ON THURSDAY. COASTSIDE... GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE SHOULD
PROVIDE MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SOME LATE IN THE DAY
CLEARING POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY
DECENT OFFSHORE FLOW AT NIGHT AND AN INCREASINGLY DEEPENING MARINE
LAYER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS MAY CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE ON THE
GLOOMY SIDE...ESPECIALLY AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY. HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS DO SHOW SOME DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY BRING SOME BETTER
CHANCES OF COASTAL SUNSHINE ON TUES AND WED.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING THE RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE EAST PAC. AT THIS TIME MODELS
ARE NOT PAINTING MUCH PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. AT A MINIMUM COASTAL AREAS SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME PERIODS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE INTERIOR ZONES. JT

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS BROUGHT MFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK PASSING WAVE WILL
HELP LIFT CEILINGS WHILE FURTHER MIXING WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD HELP ERODE CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST TODAY WITH KCEC SEEING THE MOST IMPROVEMENT
BY THE AFTERNOON. BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY
BUT THEY WILL BE MUCH MORE STUBBORN AND WANT TO STICK AROUND KACV
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD HELP INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST LATER TONIGHT BUT EXPECT
CEILINGS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY ONCE AGAIN. KML


&&

.MARINE...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY AS TIGHT NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/OREGON COAST. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEATHER FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. BUOYS
ARE SHOWING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THIS SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING, AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA. DO
EXPECT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS, WHILE THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS WILL SEE DEVELOPING GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING. THE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS, AND
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 13 FT ON THE OUTSIDE WATERS...WITH
THE HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN PORTION. MOST OF THE WAVE
ENERGIES ARE WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD WAVES. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE STARTING ON TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER
THE AREA.

UTILIZED HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING RUC13 AND HRRR IN UPDATING
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PACKAGE ON SUNDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO A
BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/NAM THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ450.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 918 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

UPDATED FORECAST/GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. AREA OF
SHOWERS NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE SW MTS...BUT WILL TAKE
A WHILE TO SPREAD EWD TO THE ERN RANGES AND PLAINS. HRRR THIS
AFTERNOON LOOKS PRETTY SPARSE WITH SHWR/TS COVERAGE...WHILE THE
12Z NAM MIGHT BE OVERDONE. HAVE MOVED BACK TIMING A BIT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO DECREASED OVERALL POPS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE STATE TODAY.
THIS WILL BRING UNSTABLE AIR TO THE REGION...RESULTING IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE...MAINLY
ACROSS KIOWA AND PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES...AFTER 2 PM.  MODELS
SHOW THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS PUSHING INTO THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME...WITH LOW LEVEL MUCAPES RANGING FROM 600 TO 1700
J/KG.  THE HIGHEST CAPES ARE INDICATED TO BE ACROSS EASTERN KIOWA
AND NORTHEASTERN PROWERS COUNTIES...AND THIS IS LIKELY THE AREA WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.  STORMS OUT THAT WAY
COULD PRODUCE HAIL 1 INCH OR MORE IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH OR MORE. ELSEWHERE...CAPES WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE OF 400 TO
600 J/KG...WITH PRIMARY STORM THREATS OF LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO 1/2
INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE
10000 FEET TODAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO NEAR 8000 FEET OR
POSSIBLY LOWER TONIGHT.  3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ABOVE 10000 FEET DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE
BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS WILL
SWING A PIECE OF ENERGY AROUND ON THE WESTERN SIDE DOWN ACROSS
COLORADO ON MONDAY...AND THE RESULTING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO LIKELY CONVECTION OVER THE MTS...AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S AND 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TUE WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH A
TEMPORARY RIDGE OVER THE STATE. A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING...THEN
DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE MTS IS STILL ON
TAP. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE A
MOVE LATE TUE...STARTING TO EJECT TO THE NE INTO CANADA ON WED. THIS
WILL PROMPT SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE E PLAINS LATE TUE INTO WED AS
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR A
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY TUE...WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 60S TO
NEAR 80F NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. WED WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL
BRING MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THU AND FRI WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S. THERE WILL BE A DAILY SHOT OF ISOLATED MT
CONVECTION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN FOR
SAT...INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE MTS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...AS
WELL AS COOLING TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

LARGE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRAVERSE THE FLIGHT
AREA TODAY...BRINGING UNSTABLE AIR TO THE REGION RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS FOR MOST STORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING...HAIL TO AROUND 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH.  HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES AFTER ABOUT 20Z.
STORMS IN THIS AREA COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO 1 INCH OR MORE IN DIAMETER
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR MORE.  THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED TODAY AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN PRECIPITATION.  FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...
GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AND UPDATES TO INCLUDE ACTIVITY PASSING
THROUGH THE TERMINAL SITES MAY BE REQUIRED.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 1048 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE 10 AM
UPDATE.

MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS RAPIDLY MOVING EAST AND WILL CLEAR MONTAUK BY
16Z. FRONT ITSELF IS NOW INTO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY WITH NY STATE
MESONET IN OTISVILLE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 1425Z. DESPITE
RAP AND HRRR CONTINUING TO SUGGEST SHOWER DEVELOP DUE TO SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE A DRY FROPA WITH LITTLE, IF
ANY INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE NY METRO IS A NOW TIMED FOR JUST BEFORE
17Z.

MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND A GUSTY NW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. A WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH TO BE REALIZED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
INLAND TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT INTO SE CANADA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. HEIGHTS RISE ON TUESDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND
THE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE HELD AT BAY WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW.

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS WARM FRONT WELL
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST ON TUESDAY SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS. THIS
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT. WEAKER FLOW OVER THE
REGION WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...SO HIGHS MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST
HIGHS ARE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TREND IN THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TOWARDS SUPPRESSION OF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. STILL HAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC POPS FOCUSED
TOWARD THE SW HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HAVE GONE A LITTLE
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LIKELY END UP DRY LIKE WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IN PLACE. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND SPOTS UNAFFECTED BY A S-SE WIND FLOW
OF THE WATERS.

A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES AND COULD BRING SHOWERS TO AT
LEAST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY ON SATURDAY...BUT MIGHT EVENTUALLY
NEED TO INCLUDE OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 16Z AND
17Z FOR THE NYC TERMINALS. FOR LONG ISLAND AND S. CT...IFR
CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTION AVERAGES JUST RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC FOR KJFK/KLGA/KEWR. WINDS INCREASE RAPIDLY WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE MID 3O KT RANGE LIKELY BETWEEN 18Z TO 22Z
FOR NYC/NJ METRO TERMINALS.

WINDS AND GUSTS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH WSW WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KT TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS GUSTS OF 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY.
ISOLATED 30 KT GUSTS FOR NYC/NJ METRO TERMINALS.
.TUE-THU...GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN REMAINS JUST TO
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BEHIND THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. OCEAN SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR 5 FT AS
WELL. THE SCA CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS FROM NOON UNTIL 6 PM.

WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY BE A
BIT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE ON THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET...WHERE 5
FT SEAS LIKELY LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH AN INCREASING SW FLOW. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD OTHERWISE BE TRANQUIL WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SWELL AND A LACK OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONG
WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN ON FRIDAY MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES...THOUGH...AT LEAST AT THIS TIME...HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH SPRING TIDES CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE...BUT RESIDUAL LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL
EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU AND POSSIBLE IN
QUEENS. WATER LEVELS SHOULD STAY BELOW MINOR FLOOD LEVELS
ELSEWHERE WITH OFFSHORE WINDS.

WATER LEVELS SHOULD FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW MINOR LEVELS MONDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC/DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 914 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS RAPIDLY MOVING EAST AND WILL CLEAR MONTAUK BY
16Z. FRONT ITSELF IS STILL BACK IN THE CATSKILLS AND NEARING
MONTICELLO, NY AS OF 13Z. VERY LITTLE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
ITSELF...PERHAPS A SPRINKLE.

LATEST RAP AND HRRR BOTH DEVELOP SHOWERS AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
NY METRO AROUND 15Z. I SEE LITTLE, IF ANY INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THIS AND WILL FORECAST A DRY FROPA BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

IMPROVEMENTS IN VISIBILITIES OCCURRING FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHEAST CT AS PCPN MOVES IN.

MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND AN INCREASINGLY GUSTY NW FLOW. A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH TO BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
INLAND TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT INTO SE CANADA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. HEIGHTS RISE ON TUESDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND
THE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE HELD AT BAY WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW.

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS WARM FRONT WELL
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST ON TUESDAY SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS. THIS
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT. WEAKER FLOW OVER THE
REGION WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...SO HIGHS MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST
HIGHS ARE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TREND IN THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TOWARDS SUPPRESSION OF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. STILL HAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC POPS FOCUSED
TOWARD THE SW HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HAVE GONE A LITTLE
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LIKELY END UP DRY LIKE WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IN PLACE. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND SPOTS UNAFFECTED BY A S-SE WIND FLOW
OF THE WATERS.

A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES AND COULD BRING SHOWERS TO AT
LEAST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY ON SATURDAY...BUT MIGHT EVENTUALLY
NEED TO INCLUDE OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES. VFR CONDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS ON LONG ISLAND AND S. CT MAY PERSIST
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTION AVERAGES JUST RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC FOR KJFK/KLGA/KEWR. WINDS INCREASE RAPIDLY WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE MID 3O KT RANGE LIKELY BETWEEN 18Z TO 22Z
FOR NYC/NJ METRO TERMINALS.

WINDS AND GUSTS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH WSW WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KT TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS GUSTS OF 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY.
ISOLATED 30 KT GUSTS FOR NYC/NJ METRO TERMINALS.
.TUE-THU...GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN REMAINS JUST TO
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WATERS UNTIL 15Z...THOUGH
IMPROVEMENT OCCURRING RAPIDLY AS PCPN MOVES ACROSS.

CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. OCEAN SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR 5 FT AS WELL.
THE SCA CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS FROM NOON UNTIL 6 PM.

WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY BE A
BIT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE ON THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET...WHERE 5
FT SEAS LIKELY LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH AN INCREASING SW FLOW. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD OTHERWISE BE TRANQUIL WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SWELL AND A LACK OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONG
WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL AFTER THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN
ON FRIDAY MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...THOUGH...AT LEAST AT THIS
TIME...HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR TONIGHT...TIDES AND SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT
RESIDUAL LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL EXPECTED ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU AND POSSIBLE IN QUEENS. WATER
LEVELS SHOULD STAY BELOW MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ELSEWHERE WITH
OFFSHORE WINDS.

WATER LEVELS SHOULD FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW MINOR LEVELS MONDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-353-355.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340-
     345-350-353.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC/DS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 722 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND MILDER
WEATHER. MUCH OF THIS WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEXT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...

WATCHING PRECIP SHIELD MOVE OUT OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND BEGIN TO
IMPACT BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...TIMING ON RECENT
HRRR/RAP/WRF MODELS WAS BEST...AND A LITTLE SLOWER THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED POPS/WX TOWARD THIS
THINKING.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE PERSIST EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. S/SW
FLOW STARTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N.

UNORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL NY/PA AND LINES UP WELL WITH HRRR GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS
FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR TIMING. THESE SHOWERS WILL REACH WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND 8-10 AM BEFORE REACHING E COAST 11 AM TO NOON. CERTAINLY
NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT TODAY AS SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY LAST 2-3
HOURS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. BETTER LIFT PASSES N OF OUR AREA WHICH
IS WHERE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE.

ONCE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE OFFSHORE...CLEARING WORKS
IN AS DRIER AIR FOLLOWS ON GUSTY W WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH 60S
ACROSS MOST OF AREA EXCEPT 50S NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHICH
WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A FEW MID
OR HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. AS WINDS DIMINISH...SETUP FAVORS GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF REGION. PARTS OF W MA WILL PROBABLY DROP
INTO MID 30S BUT FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM DOES NOT BEGIN IN THESE
LOCATIONS UNTIL MAY 11. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE SOME OF USUAL COLD
SPOTS IN E MA REACH MID 30S AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE
READINGS BEING WIDESPREAD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY FROST
ADVISORIES.

SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MON MORNING...BUT WITH
RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS ONLY EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH IT.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN MA BUT FOCUS FOR
ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE FARTHER N WHERE BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE RESIDE. SUNSHINE AND W FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS WELL INTO
60S IF NOT TO AROUND 70 ACROSS PARTS OF CT...RI AND E MA.
CERTAINLY A WELCOME CHANGE AFTER THE RAINY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY
* TEMPS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL BY WED/THU
* MORE WET WEATHER POSSIBLE FRI AND AGAIN SAT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BLOCKED AND AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES FROM PACIFIC COAST
TO WRN ATLANTIC...BOOKENDED ON EACH SIDE BY STRONG RIDGING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FALL IN LINE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL LIE
MAINLY OVER THE MARITIMES AND ATLANTIC CANADA. AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER NOTED...THIS PROVIDES DRY NW AND CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND...SUPPRESSING MEAN STORM TRACK FAR ENOUGH TO THE S TO
BE OF LITTLE IMPACT ON SRN NEW ENGLAND. BY LATE WEEK HOWEVER...A
BREAKDOWN IN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE IS EXPECTED AS A PHASES VORT MAX
FROM THE NW TERRITORIES AND SW CONUS BEGINS TO IMPACT THE NE.
TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF MORE UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET WX IS
ANTICIPATED. WITH MODELS FINALLY SHOWING REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT
HERE...AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE MID-TERM...FEEL A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CAN
BE USED.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT...
SETUP FOR A CHILLY MAY NIGHT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES BEHIND WEAK
TROF LATE IN THE DAY. PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AS WELL WHICH COULD
PROVIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY TUE MORNING WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE 30S. LOW RISK FOR SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT.

TUE THROUGH THU...
MAINLY DRY PERIOD AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION
AND SUPPRESSES STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDER TO THE S. COLUMN DRY
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY SOME DIURNAL CU/CI
EXPECTED. ALSO EXPECT FULL MIXING TO H85 WHERE TEMPS WILL RISE
FROM +4C ON TUE...TO +9C ON THU. THIS SUGGESTS WARMEST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S ON TUE...AND INTO THE 70S BY THU. WEAK PRES GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...KEEPING NEAR SHORE
LOCATIONS COOLER.

FRI...
THE FIRST IMPACT FROM DEVELOPING UPSTREAM CUTOFF LOW PRES WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRI. COMBINATION OF INCREASING PWATS
NEAR 1.0 INCHES WITH K-VALUES NEAR 30 SUGGEST WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT LOOKS
MAINLY LIKE A LATER-DAY EVENT. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LOW AT
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD THE FRONT PASS LATER IN THE DAY THIS COULD
CHANGE.

SAT AND SUN...
SECONDARY LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ACROSS THE NE AS CUTOFF
AND ATTENDANT TROF TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
CERTAINTY IN TIMING WILL GET BETTER WITH TIME...BUT FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE WITH AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND AT TIMES
WITH TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH MON...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING.
MIX OF IFR/MVFR THIS MORNING GIVES WAY TO WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH
RA FROM 13Z-18Z FROM W TO E. BETWEEN 18Z-21Z EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR FROM W TO E. AS TRANSITION TO VFR OCCURS...WINDS SHIFT TO THE
W WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT AT TIMES.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN WITH 20-30
KT GUSTS ON MON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF CIGS MAY BE A BIT OFF.
COULD OCCUR 2-3 HOURS FASTER.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF CIGS MAY BE A BIT OFF.
COULD OCCUR 2-3 HOURS FASTER.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S/SW WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING W WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...
GUSTING TO 25 KT ON E MA WATERS AS WELL AS BOS HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE AREAS.
W WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT MAY APPROACH 25 KT AGAIN MON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED ON OUTER WATERS AND S COASTAL
SOUNDS THRU TONIGHT MAINLY DUE TO SEAS BUT ALSO FOR MARGINAL 25
KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND COLD FRONT. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO MON AS WELL.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...DOODY/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/JWD
MARINE...DOODY/JWD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

 1042 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...
1038 AM CDT

A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS DRAPED NEAR A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE SEASONALLY MILD
CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE. LOW LEVEL WINDS APPEAR WEAK ENOUGH TO
PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE...THUS MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AT THE LAKEFRONT WITH SOME MID TO LATE AFTERNOON COOLING AWAY A
BIT FARTHER INLAND EXPECTED AS WELL. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
DOWNTOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A LOCAL
CLIMATOLOGY OF INLAND TEMPS NEAR 70.

KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT

THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP TRENDS TODAY
AND THEN LATER TONIGHT...AND THEN WITH AN ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED
THIS WEEK.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING SOME LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUING TO
STREAM SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...RIDING
ALONG SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY. AT THIS TIME...THESE SHOWERS ARE
STAYING SOUTH OF THE CWA. DO EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO SLIGHTLY LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING...AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ONLY EXPECT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA TO
OBSERVE PERIODIC LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND WITH THE BULK OF
ANY INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH...THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE
PRESENT OR BE VERY BRIEF/LIMITED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY THE
AFTERNOON BUT WITH CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA.
PRECIP/CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER WARMING IN THAT AREA BUT FOR
REMAINING AREAS ACROSS THE CWA...DO THINK TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY FORM LATER
TODAY...BUT WITH WARMING INTO THE 60S FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS TURN ONSHORE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A FAIRLY ENERGETIC VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE VARIES TO THE EXTENT OF THE NORTHEAST
PUSH OF THIS PRECIP WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING MOST OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA DRY TONIGHT...WHILE OTHER SWING
LARGE PRECIP SHIELD NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. KEPT THE IDEA OF PRECIP
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST TO THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT DID CONFINE HIGHEST POPS TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE FOR FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...ONCE AGAIN OWING FOR LOWER CONFIDENCE. INSTABILITY
APPEARS TO BE WEAK DURING THIS TIME BUT STRONGER FORCING WITH THIS
WAVE COULD OFFSET LACKING INSTABILITY...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.

DUE TO THE VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE WILL
BE IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR
WHATEVER PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT TO LINGER AT LEAST FOR A TIME IN
THE MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE EAST. A DRY PERIOD COULD BE
OBSERVED BEFORE TURN ATTENTION TO LIKELY REDEVELOPMENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THIS WITH NORTHWARD PUSHING BOUNDARY AND MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL HELP FOR THIS REDEVELOPMENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY KEY FOR STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE VARIES TO THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT ITS VERY POSSIBLE FOR IT TO PUSH
NORTH INTO AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. WITH THIS
POSSIBILITY...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED FOR SOME STRONGER DEVELOPMENT
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD
AND EVEN MORE INTO THE EVENING...IF THE BOUNDARY LIFTS FURTHER
NORTH. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT HAVE
MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY AND THINK TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE MOST LOCATIONS
OBSERVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM DOES APPEAR TO WEAKEN
DURING THAT TIME THOUGH WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE WEAKER
SIDE. HOWEVER...HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR IN THE PRESENCE OF A
LINGERING BOUNDARY COULD AID FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL THEN LIKELY DIMINISH/EXIT TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH BUT PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH.
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS LOW BUT ADVERTISED
PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND ANOTHER PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON. LOOKS
LIKE SOME DRY PERIODS SHOULD RETURN BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...BUT WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO POSSIBLY WORK ITS WAY
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...

MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL START
OUT VRB OR CALM...BUT WITH SOME HEATING EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
WESTERLY RATHER QUICKLY OR BY 15Z. SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN
MINIMAL...OR LESS THAN 8KT THROUGH THIS MORNING. THEN WITH THE
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY OR
AROUND 18Z. THE CHALLENGE IS WHEN WILL IT BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND.
SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE TIMING COULD END UP BEING AS LATE
AT 20Z OR PERHAPS LATER IF THE WEST WINDS ARE STRONGER AT THE
SURFACE. HAVE CONTINUED THE THINKING THAT A LAKE BREEZE WILL PUSH
INLAND AROUND 20Z...THEN WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
LATER THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL STEADILY THICKEN LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. THE
COVERAGE FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS THUNDER LOOKS TO REMAIN MINIMAL AT
THIS TIME...BUT AS MONDAY MORNING PROGRESSES THE COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE ENOUGH THAT THE VCTS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

BEACHLER

&&

.MARINE...
302 AM CDT

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST LATER TODAY. AS A LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...BUT
REMAIN WEAK. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY. THE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
MUCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS...HOWEVER WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BACK TO 10 TO
20 KT TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEACHLER

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
952 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 AM CDT Sun May 8 2016

14z/9am surface analysis shows stationary frontal boundary
extending from northern Missouri to southern Kentucky. While no
precipitation is currently occurring along this particular boundary,
a persistent band of showers associated with the upper-level
front continues from eastern Iowa across north-central Illinois.
Latest radar imagery shows the showers primarily along and north
of the I-74 corridor. HRRR and 12z NAM both suggest these showers
will continue to lift slowly northeastward and dissipate over the
next 2-3 hours. Have therefore updated PoPs to remove rain mention
south of I-74 from now through mid-afternoon. As the day
progresses, the surface front will gradually become active, with
showers/thunder developing along/north of the boundary across
Missouri...then slowly spreading across south-central Illinois by
mid to late afternoon. Have added low chance PoPs along/south of a
Canton to Mattoon line after 21z accordingly. Better rain chances
will develop tonight as the low-level jet interacts with the
approaching warm front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT Sun May 8 2016

A frontal boundary that brought some severe thunderstorms with
damaging wind gusts south of I-70 between 6-7 pm on Saturday, has
slipped sw of ILX`s CWA early this morning and extends just south of
I-64 in southern IL. A narrow band of isolated to scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms was over southwest CWA early this morning
along and a Macomb to Springfield to Effingham. This convection was
tied closer to the 850 mb frontal boundary just sw of Lincoln, IL.
Much drier and more stable air has worked into northeast CWA with
dewpoints in the 30s from Lacon to Bloomington to Champaign and
Danville northeast, while dewpoints in the 50s from Galesburg to
Jacksonville west. HRRR and RAP models take this narrow band of
elevated convection ENE across central IL through mid morning and
diminishes ne of I-74 late this morning. Then isolated convection to
develop in sw CWA later this afternoon closer to frontal boundary
over sw IL. Cooler highs today range from mid 60s to lower 70s with
coolest readings by Danville and milder by Jacksonville sw and along
highway 50 in southeast IL. Southeast winds fairly light today near
10 mph or less.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT Sun May 8 2016

Unsettled weather pattern expected across central and southeast IL
through Wednesday evening, with another chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms Fri/Sat. SPC has marginal risk across area later
Monday afternoon and Monday evening and from I-72 south on Tuesday
afternoon/evening for strong winds and hail. Temperatures to
gradually warm next few days, peaking in the lower 80s on Wed and
then turning cooler late this weekend and especially next
weekend.

00Z forecast models take fairly strong surface low pressure into
central Nebraska by 12Z/Mon and brings a warm front ne toward
central IL, and lifts through central IL during Monday as low
pressure lifts northward. This will likely bring a period of showers
and thunderstorms to the area. SPC just has general risk of
thunderstorms tonight and Monday morning. Most unstable airmass is
in sw CWA later Monday afternoon until mid evening Monday where
CAPES reach 1000-1400 J/kg while bulk shear peaks from 30-40 kts. So
feel better risk of severe storms maybe in our SW CWA again.
Strongest bulk shear of 30-40 kts and highest CAPES of 1000-1800
J/kg are south of I-72 on Tue afternoon/evening where marginal risk
of severe storms continues. Highs Monday in low to mid 70s, then in
mid to upper 70s Tue and mostly lower 80s on Wed.

Cutoff low pressure over the Dakotas on Wed and brings a cold front
east across IL during Wed night to continue good chances of showers
and thunderstorms over central/se IL Wed afternoon and Wed night
along with warm summerlike conditions on Wed. Models have trended
drier on Thu behind the cold front with just slight chance of
showers in eastern IL Thu. Temps cool closer to normal ranging from
near 70F over the IL river valley and mid 70s in southeast IL with
similar temps on Friday. Have dry conditions Thu night and then
return chances of showers and thunderstorms by Friday afternoon and
Friday night as next weather system moves in from the northern
Plains. A deepening upper level low into the Great Lakes region late
this week into next week brings cooler temperatures in the 60s next
Sat/Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun May 8 2016

Predominantly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time,
although brief MVFR or IFR conditions can`t be ruled out during a
heavier thunderstorm. A break in the stormy weather will occur
early this morning, with chances returning again tonight. Winds
will be predominantly southeast through the period.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...BAK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

SOME OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL GET A BIT OF A REPRIEVE FROM THE
RAIN TODAY...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SOUTHERN HALF WHICH WILL
HAVE A CHANCE DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS THIS FRONT PUSHES BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD BACK
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK. FURTHER
OUT...MEAN UPPER TROUGHING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 812 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
AREA THIS MORNING. PER HRRR SHOULD SEE THIS GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWERS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...AND INTO KENTUCKY AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
TODAY...SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH IT WILL
STAY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

TEMPS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S. TRENDED SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED TENNESSEE VALLEY COLD FRONT WILL START
MAKING ITS WAY BACK NORTH TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. AS A RESULT...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST BY NEXT SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WITH A
POSSIBLE LULL AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 081500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST BAND OF SHRA TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE IND TAF
SITE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS SEEN AT HUF AND BMG...A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THUS HAVE MENTIONED VCTS
FOR NOW. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY BRIEF DOWNPOUR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 08/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE TAF SITES BY TONIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT DRIFTS BACK NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR
CATEGORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THEY WILL START
TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THAT FRONT PUSHES NORTH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AFTER MON 09Z...AND CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR AT THAT POINT THROUGH
THE END OF TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL START OUT SOUTHWESTERLY AND SLOWLY BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 11 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...TDUD/JP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 812 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

SOME OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL GET A BIT OF A REPRIEVE FROM THE
RAIN TODAY...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SOUTHERN HALF WHICH WILL
HAVE A CHANCE DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS THIS FRONT PUSHES BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD BACK
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK. FURTHER
OUT...MEAN UPPER TROUGHING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 812 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
AREA THIS MORNING. PER HRRR SHOULD SEE THIS GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWERS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...AND INTO KENTUCKY AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
TODAY...SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH IT WILL
STAY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

TEMPS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S. TRENDED SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED TENNESSEE VALLEY COLD FRONT WILL START
MAKING ITS WAY BACK NORTH TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. AS A RESULT...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST BY NEXT SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WITH A
POSSIBLE LULL AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 08/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE TAF SITES BY TONIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT DRIFTS BACK NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR
CATEGORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THEY WILL START
TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THAT FRONT PUSHES NORTH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AFTER MON 09Z...AND CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR AT THAT POINT THROUGH
THE END OF TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL START OUT SOUTHWESTERLY AND SLOWLY BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 11 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...TDUD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

 641 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

Forecast for thunderstorms today, and their potential strength still
remains dependent on how convection evolves over the next several
hours.  Warm front has diffused a bit over north central Kansas,
where showers and isolated thunderstorms have continued in these
overnight hours, but boundary is generally north of I70.  Next upper
wave noted in WV imagery lifting out of north Central Oklahoma at
this hour, and is the next feature expected to redevelop convection
as it moves through in the morning into early afternoon hours.

Boundary layer remains capped and early convection is expected to be
elevated, with a lower end severe threat.  As afternoon progresses,
if atmosphere gets a chance to recover after the morning convection,
NAM suggests late afternoon/early evening storms would become
surface based with ample shear and instability to bring severe
storms. HRRR and others indicates storms forming along the dryline
in south central Kansas. Those storms would have the potential to
move into our western counties with a severe threat in the late
afternoon into evening hours, with all modes of severe weather
possible, including large hail, winds and isolated tornadoes
possible. This threat spreads east with time, with GFS spreading dry
slot back into the area from W to E overnight and ushering out most
of the storms by sunrise.  Will have to watch for locally heavy
rainfall also as flow becomes more aligned north to south and has
frontal boundary near our northern counties.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

On Monday a strong shortwave will round the base of the main trough
axis and lift out over KS during the day. At the surface the dry
line will set up across central KS and be the focus for storm
development once the cap breaks. Steep mid level lapse rates will
accompany the shortwave, which should support surface based cape
around 3000 j/kg. The main issue is that the deep layer shear is sub
marginal to support much organized severe convection. Given the high
instability though localized hail and damaging wind will be possible
in the afternoon and evening. The decrease in the instability during
the late evening should cause ongoing storms to weaken. The models
show that the kicker wave over the northern Rockies will absorb the
initial wave over the northern plains. This may keep the dry line
from progressing eastward much by Tuesday, although most locations
should remain dry with subsidence behind the wave. Despite that
model sounding show an uncapped environment on Tuesday afternoon the
lack of forcing for ascent should limit any activity. On Tuesday
night a cold front will push into KS as the main system tracks over
the northern plains. The models are fairly consistent with
developing elevated showers mainly across north central KS Wednesday
morning. The environment tries to keep some instability ahead of
this front therefore could not rule out a few storms as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

Kept VFR conditions a bit longer as storms just getting started in
SC KS at this hour. May need visby restrictions after 18z but
anticipate worse conditions in the evening and have carried
conditions as such.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA...AND WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PRECIP
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY
IN OUR NORTH FOR LATE THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

WEAKENING SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HAVE RAISED POPS FOR TODAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT STILL ONLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THROUGH THE MORNING AS EVEN THE
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DRIED UP. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...JUST ENTERING KENTUCKY. EARLIER A COUPLE OF
STORM CLUSTERS...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS...PASSED THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE LEFT STILL RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. WHILE THE SKIES ARE COVERED BY MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...THERE IS A LOWER BATCH JUST NORTH OF JKL SHOWING UP IN
SOME OF THE OBS AND AFFECTING THE TAFS THERE. ALSO...IN PLACES
THE CLOUDS ARE THIN ENOUGH THAT PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE MILD AND NOT TOO FAR FROM
60 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR REGARDLESS OF ELEVATION. DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKEWISE RUNNING ON THE MOIST SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 55 TO 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT EAST KENTUCKY
SQUEEZED BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOME RIDGING TO THE SOUTH TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE BROAD
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL START TO OPEN UP ALLOWING
ENERGY TO SPILL EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE RIDGE SLIPS PAST TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW CARRYING ESCAPING ENERGY PACKETS INTO OUR AREA...
THE STRONGEST OF THESE ARRIVING LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT WILL AGAIN FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND WITH PARTICULAR
FOCUS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY DESPITE THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA. A LACK
OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LIMITED SFC CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TO LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TODAY TO JUST SHOWERS...THANKS TO A CAP
BETWEEN 750 AND 800 MBS PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. A SMALL THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY RETURNS
NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
A RETURN TO OUR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NORM...
ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG. FOR MONDAY...WE WILL BE BACK
IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF A FAIRLY DEEP
SFC LOW THE WELL TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD
WITH SMALL TO MODERATE CAPES AND SUB ZERO LIS. ACCORDINGLY...
HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST
ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN
THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS TO MAKE THEM
ADHERE MORE TOWARD STANDARD DIURNAL PEAKS AND VALLEYS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AND
SMALL SCALE FEATURES THIS MORNING LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

ENERGY IS EJECTED OUT OF SOUTHWEST LOW WHICH TRACKS ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WINDOW. THE
CORE OF THE PARENT LOW MAKES IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE
PHASING WITH ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA...BC. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION AND GRADUALLY SHEARS OUT BY LATE WED. THEREAFTER
THE LARGER PHASED SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES AFFECTING
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE FIRST SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SECOND DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SATURDAY.

AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE COMMONWEALTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SOUTHWEST TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST OF TWO AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL THEN PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AS A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER...SECOND BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND
IMPULSE WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS OUR AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT BEST
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES AND SFC
BOUNDARIES...GENERALLY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AFTER PASSAGE
OF THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT DAILY HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL EVEN
CLIMB TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK. DAILY HIGHS DROP BACK DOWN INTO
THE 60S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

A BAND OF LOW IFR OR LESS CIGS ALONG WITH POCKETS OF MVFR VIS WILL
DRY UP AND LIFT BY MID MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED THOUGH A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER EAST KENTUCKY.
WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY SOME MVFR VIS OR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY. THROUGH IT ALL...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 933 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

WEAKENING SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HAVE RAISED POPS FOR TODAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT STILL ONLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THROUGH THE MORNING AS EVEN THE
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DRIED UP. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...JUST ENTERING KENTUCKY. EARLIER A COUPLE OF
STORM CLUSTERS...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS...PASSED THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE LEFT STILL RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. WHILE THE SKIES ARE COVERED BY MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...THERE IS A LOWER BATCH JUST NORTH OF JKL SHOWING UP IN
SOME OF THE OBS AND AFFECTING THE TAFS THERE. ALSO...IN PLACES
THE CLOUDS ARE THIN ENOUGH THAT PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE MILD AND NOT TOO FAR FROM
60 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR REGARDLESS OF ELEVATION. DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKEWISE RUNNING ON THE MOIST SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 55 TO 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT EAST KENTUCKY
SQUEEZED BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOME RIDGING TO THE SOUTH TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE BROAD
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL START TO OPEN UP ALLOWING
ENERGY TO SPILL EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE RIDGE SLIPS PAST TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW CARRYING ESCAPING ENERGY PACKETS INTO OUR AREA...
THE STRONGEST OF THESE ARRIVING LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT WILL AGAIN FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND WITH PARTICULAR
FOCUS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY DESPITE THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA. A LACK
OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LIMITED SFC CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TO LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TODAY TO JUST SHOWERS...THANKS TO A CAP
BETWEEN 750 AND 800 MBS PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. A SMALL THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY RETURNS
NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
A RETURN TO OUR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NORM...
ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG. FOR MONDAY...WE WILL BE BACK
IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF A FAIRLY DEEP
SFC LOW THE WELL TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD
WITH SMALL TO MODERATE CAPES AND SUB ZERO LIS. ACCORDINGLY...
HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST
ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN
THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS TO MAKE THEM
ADHERE MORE TOWARD STANDARD DIURNAL PEAKS AND VALLEYS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AND
SMALL SCALE FEATURES THIS MORNING LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

ENERGY IS EJECTED OUT OF SOUTHWEST LOW WHICH TRACKS ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WINDOW. THE
CORE OF THE PARENT LOW MAKES IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE
PHASING WITH ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA...BC. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION AND GRADUALLY SHEARS OUT BY LATE WED. THEREAFTER
THE LARGER PHASED SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES AFFECTING
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE FIRST SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SECOND DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SATURDAY.

AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE COMMONWEALTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SOUTHWEST TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST OF TWO AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL THEN PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AS A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER...SECOND BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND
IMPULSE WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS OUR AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT BEST
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES AND SFC
BOUNDARIES...GENERALLY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AFTER PASSAGE
OF THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT DAILY HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL EVEN
CLIMB TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK. DAILY HIGHS DROP BACK DOWN INTO
THE 60S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

A BAND OF LOW IFR OR LESS CIGS ALONG WITH POCKETS OF MVFR VIS WILL
DRY UP AND LIFT BY MID MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED THOUGH A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER EAST KENTUCKY.
WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY SOME MVFR VIS OR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY. THROUGH IT ALL...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 745 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THROUGH THE MORNING AS EVEN THE
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DRIED UP. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...JUST ENTERING KENTUCKY. EARLIER A COUPLE OF
STORM CLUSTERS...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS...PASSED THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE LEFT STILL RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. WHILE THE SKIES ARE COVERED BY MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...THERE IS A LOWER BATCH JUST NORTH OF JKL SHOWING UP IN
SOME OF THE OBS AND AFFECTING THE TAFS THERE. ALSO...IN PLACES
THE CLOUDS ARE THIN ENOUGH THAT PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE MILD AND NOT TOO FAR FROM
60 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR REGARDLESS OF ELEVATION. DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKEWISE RUNNING ON THE MOIST SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 55 TO 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT EAST KENTUCKY
SQUEEZED BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOME RIDGING TO THE SOUTH TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE BROAD
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL START TO OPEN UP ALLOWING
ENERGY TO SPILL EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE RIDGE SLIPS PAST TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW CARRYING ESCAPING ENERGY PACKETS INTO OUR AREA...
THE STRONGEST OF THESE ARRIVING LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT WILL AGAIN FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND WITH PARTICULAR
FOCUS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY DESPITE THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA. A LACK
OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LIMITED SFC CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TO LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TODAY TO JUST SHOWERS...THANKS TO A CAP
BETWEEN 750 AND 800 MBS PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. A SMALL THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY RETURNS
NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
A RETURN TO OUR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NORM...
ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG. FOR MONDAY...WE WILL BE BACK
IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF A FAIRLY DEEP
SFC LOW THE WELL TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD
WITH SMALL TO MODERATE CAPES AND SUB ZERO LIS. ACCORDINGLY...
HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST
ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN
THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS TO MAKE THEM
ADHERE MORE TOWARD STANDARD DIURNAL PEAKS AND VALLEYS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AND
SMALL SCALE FEATURES THIS MORNING LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

ENERGY IS EJECTED OUT OF SOUTHWEST LOW WHICH TRACKS ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WINDOW. THE
CORE OF THE PARENT LOW MAKES IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE
PHASING WITH ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA...BC. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION AND GRADUALLY SHEARS OUT BY LATE WED. THEREAFTER
THE LARGER PHASED SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES AFFECTING
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE FIRST SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SECOND DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SATURDAY.

AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE COMMONWEALTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SOUTHWEST TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST OF TWO AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL THEN PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AS A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER...SECOND BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND
IMPULSE WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS OUR AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT BEST
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES AND SFC
BOUNDARIES...GENERALLY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AFTER PASSAGE
OF THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT DAILY HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL EVEN
CLIMB TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK. DAILY HIGHS DROP BACK DOWN INTO
THE 60S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

A BAND OF LOW IFR OR LESS CIGS ALONG WITH POCKETS OF MVFR VIS WILL
DRY UP AND LIFT BY MID MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED THOUGH A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER EAST KENTUCKY.
WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY SOME MVFR VIS OR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY. THROUGH IT ALL...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

 1043 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...

STILL EXPECTING A SEASONABLY COOL AND BREEZY MOTHER`S DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL SHORT OF RED FLAG THRESHOLDS.

MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWED WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LAKE
HURON THROUGH THE TIP OF THE MITT. TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH TODAY AS
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OVERSPREADS REGION. MAY SUN ANGLE
AND WEAK CAA (WITH 850 MB TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 0C)
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP MIXING AND LOCALLY GUSTY NW BREEZES
TOPPING OUT AROUND 20 MPH. SIMILARLY, SUNSHINE AND MIXING WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 50S N/W AREAS AND LOW-MID 60S S/E AREAS
AS DEW POINTS FALL THROUGH THE 20S. MIN RH/S WILL LOCALLY FALL
TO 18-23% - PARTICULARLY ALONG/EAST OF US-127 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH
OF M-32 - THOUGH LIKELY EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

OTHERWISE, LINGERING MID CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
FADE. SOME HIGH BASE CU WILL CONTINUE TO FORM, ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE BIG LAKES ACROSS E UPPER AND NE LOWER. HRRR IS SUPPORTING
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LOWER AND
THE THUMB REGION. AT THIS TIME, DO NOT EXPECT ANY LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER OUR SE AREAS - BUT IF ANY FORM THIS IS MOST LIKELY AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND
FROST/FREEZE POSSIBILITIES FOR MONDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FROST FOR MONDAY MORNING

OVERVIEW...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE MOVING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING DOWN THE NW FLOW
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE OMEGA BLOCK HAS FALLEN APART
REPLACED BY A REX BLOCK IN THE WEST, AND A 500 MB LOW OVER JAMES
BAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS AFFECTING LOCATIONS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

TODAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION, LOOKED FOR ANALOGOUS
TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY WITH THE PATTERN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE AIR MASS OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES, IT LOOKS LIKE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE MODEL SOUNDING SHOW
PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN, ESPECIALLY AS IT GETS BREEZY AGAIN,
BUT NOT AS BREEZY AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. SO WILL EXPECT THAT WE AGAIN
WILL HAVE MIN RH VALUES OF BETWEEN 20-25% WITH SOME LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST INTO THE 15-20% RANGE WITH THE MIXING OVER
DRY SAND.

TONIGHT... WITH THE LOW DEWPOINTS, THE CLEAR SKIES, THE CALM WIND
AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 0C TO +1C OVER MOST OF THE AREA,
WILL EXPECT THAT WE WILL RADIATIONALLY COOL TO BELOW FREEZING. WITH
THE FROST/FREEZE SERVICE STARTING UP ON MONDAY, WILL INTRODUCE FROST
INTO THE GRIDS FOR MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY
START COMING BACK UP BEFORE SUNRISE, SO WILL GO WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND FREEZING TO THE MID 30S THAT WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT
WARM AS WE GET CLOSER TO 00Z. WILL PUT PATCHY FROST IN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE WINDS AND THE HOW
LONG WE ACTUALLY ARE ABLE TO GET FROST TO FORM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

LONG TERM (MONDAY AND TUESDAY)

IMPACTS: COLD MONDAY OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET INTO FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: HEIGHT RISES WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF CUTOFF LOW OVER
NE/IA. THE BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MOST OF SUNDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE PAC NW SUNDAY NIGHT...CATCHING UP TO AND
PHASING WITH THE CUTOFF OVER THE PLAINS GOING INTO MID-WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN OCCLUDING SFC LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION MID-WEEK. THE PHASED LOWS WILL TRACK MORE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...DEEPENING ANOTHER SFC LOW ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER WHICH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...BUT DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE ON THE HEELS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED
LOW.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
WITH FROST ADVISORY CONCERNS. NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER: A RATHER DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY. ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS WILL LESSEN HOWEVER...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVERHEAD WILL LIGHTEN WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL GET
A BIT WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS THE HIGH HELPS TO SHUNT THE COLDER AIR
TO THE EAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH
BRINGS THE FIRST CHALLENGE OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...AIR MASS IS VERY
DRY...AND WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH MAY BRING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AND PUT SOME AREAS INTO FROST ADVISORY
TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING IN TUESDAY MORNING...AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD REALLY AFFECT JUST
HOW LOW TEMPS GET. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR CLOUDS TO BUILD SW TO
NE THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER IT WILL BE LATE MORNING FOR MOST BUT
THE FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THAT SAID...IF THINGS SPEED UP AND
CLOUDS GET IN EARLIER THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
ADVISORY LEVELS. BUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS FOR LATER CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AND LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. THIS MOISTURE ARRIVAL TIES
RIGHT INTO THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE...IF AND WHEN RAIN MIGHT
ARRIVE.

A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OCCLUDING LOW
MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS LOOKS TO BE INTO SW MI BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A
BAND OF ENHANCED VORTICITY ORIENTED NW TO SE THOUGH THE STATE IS
JUST CLIPPING THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA AND THROUGH GLADWIN COUNTY.
COMBINED WITH WAA ALONG THE FRONT...THERE IS SOME WEAK QG ASCENT IN
THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO SEE SHOWERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM LEELANAU TO ARENAC. WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH IF IT DOES ARRIVE.

EXTENDED... (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WITH PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE OCCLUDING LOW DWINDLING...THE NEXT GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE ALONG A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
ATTACHED TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CANADA. THINGS
ALSO GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW...WITH
SOME COLD H8 AIR OVERHEAD. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE...BUT IT
IS ON THE EDGE OF SUPPORTING SOME (I DON/T WANT TO SAY IT) LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT OVER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD
AIR IN THESE SITUATIONS LATELY...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. A BIT OF TRIVIA...THE LATEST MEASURABLE SNOW FOR
GAYLORD ON RECORD IS MAY 17...THERE WAS 1.5 INCHES IN 1956.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

OTHER THAN THE SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, THE REST
OF THE DAY, AND THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THAT MATTER, WILL REMAIN VFR
OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A BUBBLE HIGH DROPS INTO THE REGION
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP, AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL KICK UP NEAR
WHITEFISH BAY AND THE ST. MARY`S RIVER. AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING
THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF AND REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BBS
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...MAYHEW
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JSL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

 1038 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...

STILL EXPECTING A SEASONABLY COOL AND BREEZY MOTHER`S DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL SHORT OF RED FLAG THRESHOLDS.

MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWED WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LAKE
HURON THROUGH THE TIP OF THE MITT. TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH TODAY AS
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OVERSPREADS REGION. MAY SUN ANGLE
AND WEAK CAA (WITH 850 MB TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 0C)
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP MIXING AND LOCALLY GUSTY NW BREEZES
TOPPING OUT AROUND 20 MPH. SIMILARLY, SUNSHINE AND MIXING WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 50S N/W AREAS AND LOW-MID 60S S/E AREAS
AS DEW POINTS FALL THROUGH THE 20S. MIN RH/S WILL LOCALLY FALL
TO 18-23% - PARTICULARLY ALONG/EAST OF US-127 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH
OF M-32 - THOUGH LIKELY EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

OTHERWISE, LINGERING MID CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
FADE. SOME HIGH BASE CU WILL CONTINUE TO FORM, ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE BIG LAKES ACROSS E UPPER AND NE LOWER. HRRR IS SUPPORTING
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LOWER AND
THE THUMB REGION. AT THIS TIME, DO NOT EXPECT ANY LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER OUR SE AREAS - BUT IF ANY FORM THIS LIKELY BE WHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND
FROST/FREEZE POSSIBILITIES FOR MONDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FROST FOR MONDAY MORNING

OVERVIEW...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE MOVING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING DOWN THE NW FLOW
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE OMEGA BLOCK HAS FALLEN APART
REPLACED BY A REX BLOCK IN THE WEST, AND A 500 MB LOW OVER JAMES
BAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS AFFECTING LOCATIONS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

TODAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION, LOOKED FOR ANALOGOUS
TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY WITH THE PATTERN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE AIR MASS OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES, IT LOOKS LIKE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE MODEL SOUNDING SHOW
PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN, ESPECIALLY AS IT GETS BREEZY AGAIN,
BUT NOT AS BREEZY AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. SO WILL EXPECT THAT WE AGAIN
WILL HAVE MIN RH VALUES OF BETWEEN 20-25% WITH SOME LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST INTO THE 15-20% RANGE WITH THE MIXING OVER
DRY SAND.

TONIGHT... WITH THE LOW DEWPOINTS, THE CLEAR SKIES, THE CALM WIND
AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 0C TO +1C OVER MOST OF THE AREA,
WILL EXPECT THAT WE WILL RADIATIONALLY COOL TO BELOW FREEZING. WITH
THE FROST/FREEZE SERVICE STARTING UP ON MONDAY, WILL INTRODUCE FROST
INTO THE GRIDS FOR MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY
START COMING BACK UP BEFORE SUNRISE, SO WILL GO WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND FREEZING TO THE MID 30S THAT WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT
WARM AS WE GET CLOSER TO 00Z. WILL PUT PATCHY FROST IN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE WINDS AND THE HOW
LONG WE ACTUALLY ARE ABLE TO GET FROST TO FORM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

LONG TERM (MONDAY AND TUESDAY)

IMPACTS: COLD MONDAY OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET INTO FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: HEIGHT RISES WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF CUTOFF LOW OVER
NE/IA. THE BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MOST OF SUNDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE PAC NW SUNDAY NIGHT...CATCHING UP TO AND
PHASING WITH THE CUTOFF OVER THE PLAINS GOING INTO MID-WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN OCCLUDING SFC LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION MID-WEEK. THE PHASED LOWS WILL TRACK MORE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...DEEPENING ANOTHER SFC LOW ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER WHICH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...BUT DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE ON THE HEELS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED
LOW.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
WITH FROST ADVISORY CONCERNS. NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER: A RATHER DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY. ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS WILL LESSEN HOWEVER...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVERHEAD WILL LIGHTEN WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL GET
A BIT WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS THE HIGH HELPS TO SHUNT THE COLDER AIR
TO THE EAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH
BRINGS THE FIRST CHALLENGE OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...AIR MASS IS VERY
DRY...AND WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH MAY BRING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AND PUT SOME AREAS INTO FROST ADVISORY
TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING IN TUESDAY MORNING...AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD REALLY AFFECT JUST
HOW LOW TEMPS GET. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR CLOUDS TO BUILD SW TO
NE THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER IT WILL BE LATE MORNING FOR MOST BUT
THE FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THAT SAID...IF THINGS SPEED UP AND
CLOUDS GET IN EARLIER THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
ADVISORY LEVELS. BUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS FOR LATER CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AND LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. THIS MOISTURE ARRIVAL TIES
RIGHT INTO THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE...IF AND WHEN RAIN MIGHT
ARRIVE.

A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OCCLUDING LOW
MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS LOOKS TO BE INTO SW MI BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A
BAND OF ENHANCED VORTICITY ORIENTED NW TO SE THOUGH THE STATE IS
JUST CLIPPING THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA AND THROUGH GLADWIN COUNTY.
COMBINED WITH WAA ALONG THE FRONT...THERE IS SOME WEAK QG ASCENT IN
THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO SEE SHOWERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM LEELANAU TO ARENAC. WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH IF IT DOES ARRIVE.

EXTENDED... (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WITH PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE OCCLUDING LOW DWINDLING...THE NEXT GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE ALONG A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
ATTACHED TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CANADA. THINGS
ALSO GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW...WITH
SOME COLD H8 AIR OVERHEAD. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE...BUT IT
IS ON THE EDGE OF SUPPORTING SOME (I DON/T WANT TO SAY IT) LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT OVER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD
AIR IN THESE SITUATIONS LATELY...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. A BIT OF TRIVIA...THE LATEST MEASURABLE SNOW FOR
GAYLORD ON RECORD IS MAY 17...THERE WAS 1.5 INCHES IN 1956.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

OTHER THAN THE SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, THE REST
OF THE DAY, AND THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THAT MATTER, WILL REMAIN VFR
OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A BUBBLE HIGH DROPS INTO THE REGION
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP, AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL KICK UP NEAR
WHITEFISH BAY AND THE ST. MARY`S RIVER. AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING
THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF AND REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BBS
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...MAYHEW
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JSL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

 731 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016


.AVIATION...

A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES BELOW 5000 FEET.
HIGH BASED DIRUNAL CU UP AND COLD POOL ALOFT TRACKING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN COULD TOUCH A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN TAF
SITES....BUT CHANCES/COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD GUST TO AROUND
20 KNOTS BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE AND CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE AGAIN.

FOR DTW...NONE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 403 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

DISCUSSION...

A MIDLEVEL TROUGH/ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LOWER PENINSULA THIS MORNING. A SHEARED BUT DISTINCT SHORTWAVE WILL
SHUTTLE ALONG THE WESTERN OUTER WALL TO THIS COLD POOL TRACKING
DIRECTLY THROUGH THE SAGINAW BAY REGION AND THUMB. LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY NOW OCCURRING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE CENTRAL UPPER
PENINSULA IS BEING FORCED BY DCVA DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
WHILE NOT AT A WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...MODEL DATA THE PAST 24 TO 36
HOURS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING THIS SOLUTION. THIS
LENDS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT ISO-SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BOTH THE WRF-NMM AND THE HRRR HAVE BEEN THE
MOST CONSISTENT WITH TIMING BETWEEN 15-22Z. WHILE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE THUMB COUNTIES...IN-HOUSE DIAGNOSTIC TR-
ISENTROPIC FIELDS SHOW A COMPACT REGION OF HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT/SATURATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME PASSING SPRINKLES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. FOR THIS ISSUANCE DID TRIM AND REFINE THE LOW
CHANCE POPS TO THE THUMB...WITH INTRODUCING CHANCE OF SPRINKLE
MENTION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AMOUNTS...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME LIGHT IMPACTS TO PUBLIC INTERESTS.

CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL ALLOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD AGGRESSIVELY INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. LAKE INFLUENCE AND A LOW SFC DEWPOINT AIR MASS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICK THIS EVENING WITH MIDDLE 30S POSSIBLE IN
THE THUMB. FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST HIGH ENOUGH
TO LIMIT MUCH FROST WORDING FOR THE EASTERN THUMB. THIS COULD CHANGE
WITH A BETTER LOOK AT AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S.

STABLE SPRING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF PICTURE
PERFECT WEATHER TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FOR MONDAY. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY TRAJECTORY WHICH SHOULD KEEP
SOME CHILL IN THE AIR. TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN
THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS..50S IN THE THUMB.

THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE FOR THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEATHER DURING THE
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WILL BE THE UNWINDING OF THE OLD SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES CUTOFF LOW AND THE PERSISTENCE OF A BLOCKING PATTERN
OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. EACH SUCCESSIVE ITERATION OF THE NWP
SUITE AS BEEN ADVERTISING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THIS MIDWEEK
PATTERN WILL PLAY OUT. SOLUTIONS A DAY OR SO AGO WERE SUGGESTING
SOME STALLING OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...RUNS TONIGHT
ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT AT LEAST A PORTION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL NOW BE ALLOWED TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD. GIVEN THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN THE SOLUTIONS CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW IN EXACT
RAIN CHANCE TIMING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THERE IS A FEAR THAT
THIS MIDWEEK PERIOD IS RIPE FOR OVERFORECASTING AND BROADBRUSHING
TOO MUCH POPS AND HAVE MADE A CONCERTED EFFORT TO LIMIT THIS. WILL
COMMUNICATE THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN INCREASING SIGNAL AGAIN THAT
A REASONABLE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE
MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION THAT WILL EXIST OVER THE CWA. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL LIKELY REMAIN A CONCERN RIGHT UP TO THE EVENT...SO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. TRANSPARENCY TO THE CLOUD EARLY IN
THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER
60S.

MARINE...

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER LAKE HURON THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...PERSISTING ON
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH WILL BRING NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT MAINLY JUST ACROSS
LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST CLAIR AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER LAKE HURON.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
700 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 419 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

Today - Monday Night:

A very active period is in store for CWA with several rounds of
potentially heavy rainfall, possibly a few severe storms over the
western counties today and a better chance for severe storms over
the western third of the CWA on Monday.

The forecast for today is a bit complex owing to an outflow boundary
left from Saturday`s convection over northern MO stalling near the
MO River. This boundary now appears to have reinforced or redefined
the frontal boundary which is expected to help magnify today`s
convection and QPF. However, owing to differences between the
strength and quality of model moisture return plus location of QPF
have opted not to go with any type of flood headlines.

Water vapor imagery depicts a vorticity max now over southwest OK
flying northeast. This feature lies within the broad southwesterly
flow tied to the large closed upper system over the western U.S.
Believe this is the signal many of the operational models have
continually picked up on fore several runs for developing elevated
convection over east central KS this morning. GFS/NAM quickly
spread the convection downstream across the CWA during the late
morning and early afternoon hours. This is also supported by the
last half dozen HRRR model runs so have focused highest PoPs in a
general west-east swath through the center of the CWA. This also
ties in nicely with the expected location of the surface boundary.

This boundary will eventually lift northward tonight with more
widespread convection focusing across northern MO as the southerly
low level jet gets cranking. Believe the severe threat will be muted
by the elevated convection, extensive cloud cover which will limit
the degree of instability plus the low-level jet axis will be well
to the west over central KS. Should convection be delayed until late
afternoon our severe risk will increase some as it will be able to
tap into moderate instability and 0-6km shear of 40kts.

Tonight`s convection should be waning Monday morning as it exits the
eastern CWA. However, as the western U.S. upper system nudges east
it will send a second charge of energy into the mid MO River Valley.
Arrival time looks a bit more favorable plus deeper moisture will be
in place as the h8 jet axis shifts into far eastern KS. This favors
a better setup for severe for the western portion of the CWA.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

While nowhere near as active as Sunday and Monday, this period will
still feature the remnants of the departing closed upper system on
Tuesday followed by a deepening upper trough swinging down through
the Northern Rockies and across the Northern/Central Plains on
Wednesday. This latter feature will send a cold front front
southeast, generating scattered convection as the front passes
through the CWA.

Thursday - Saturday

The Northern/Central Plains closed upper system will rotate north
and stall over south central Canada. This should proved one dry day
day on Thursday. By Friday, northwest flow will set up under the
Canadian upper low with an upper level speed max generating what
appears to be a baroclinic leaf of showers that spreads quickly
across the CWA on Friday.

Under a surge of high pressure a cooler and drier airmass will move
into the central U.S. for the start of the weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 652 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

Scattered convection is expected to spread into east central KS and
west central MO late this morning and continue tracking east into
northeast and central MO by mid/late afternoon. Additional convection
is expected this evening mainly north of the Missouri River with the
activity focusing into northern MO by late evening. The bulk of the
convection after midnight will be across northern MO with MVFR
ceilings. In the wake of the heavier convection expect MVFR ceilings
with scattered showers.

The initial activity will see VFR ceilings but MVFR visibilities
obscured by haze along the MO River. This haze is the result of the
smoke drawn down from the forest fires in northwest Canada.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...MJ
Aviation...MJ




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 1025 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL FEATURE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE WEEK. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AS A COLD FRONT REACHES THE
AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
THE NAM AND HRRR STILL SHOWING A LITTLE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA TODAY AND MAY ACTUALLY SNEAK INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. THE NW FLOW OF SAT BEGINS TO
TURN MORE ZONAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD KEEP ANY LARGE SCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FROM RIDING AS
FAR SOUTH AS OUR LATITUDE.

THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS TO CONSIDER IN DETERMINING THE RISK AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING THE MID-LEVEL CAP ERODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT THE
SAME TIME...LIFT WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE N AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT GAINS PROXIMITY. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES MAXIMIZE AROUND 800
J/KG. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PEAK NEAR 7 DEG C/KM. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 40 KT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT ONE AND A THIRD INCHES. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS LACKING WITH THE BRUNT OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINING
WELL N OF THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...WHICH WERE SHOWING THE
CONVECTION REMAINING TO OUR N...HAVE NOW COME A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS THIS CYCLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING FURTHER SOUTH AND AT LEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ONE-THIRD TO ONE-
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...IN THESE AREAS...WILL INCLUDE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS EVE. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVE...AND SKIES WILL TREND TOWARD CLEAR DURING
THE NIGHT.

RISING HEIGHTS AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL YIELD A WARM DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE REGION. AS YOU NEAR THE COAST...A PINNED
SEABREEZE SHOULD KEEP THE BEACHES FROM RISING ABOVE THE LOWER TO MID
80S. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MID AND UPPER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA MON. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WITH A WARM RIDGE ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
SUBSIDENCE. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM AIR THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS PERIOD. EARLY SUMMER-LIKE HEAT IS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 DEGREES. A PINNED SEABREEZE BOTH
DAYS...BUT ESPECIALLY MON...SHOULD KEEP THE BEACHES AND ADJACENT
COMMUNITIES COOLEST...MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT H5 AS THE
MORE DYNAMIC FEATURES IMPACT CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER STATES.
A FEW EMBEDDED IMPULSES COULD COME INTO PLAY BUT NOTHING EXPECTED
TO GENERATE ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WED-THU TIME FRAME. THE AIR-
MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY
COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS. INCREASING SUPPORT
ALOFT... AN APPROACHING FRONT...AND HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
DECIDED TO BUMP POPS UPWARD DURING FRIDAY. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION DURING SATURDAY AS MOISTURE POOLING OCCURS ONCE
AGAIN AHEAD OF ANOTHER BOUNDARY SLATED TO PASS THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE SECOND BOUNDARY ARRIVES THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE DISPLACED OFFSHORE KEEPING COVERAGE OF
ANY SHRA/TSRA ON THE LOWER END. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THOUGH COULD SEE A COOLER/DRIER AIR-
MASS MOVE INTO CAROLINAS JUST BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE WIND SHEAR EARLY SINCE KLTX VWP SHOWING 25 TO 30
KT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD MIX OUT BY
14Z.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT WILL TOUCH OFF
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA INTO THIS EVE. FOR NOW...THE CHANCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:


A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
WATERS AND MAY SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING ON MON. W WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO SW BY/DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SW WINDS WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE FEAR
WATERS...THE DIRECTION MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR BRIEFLY E
OR NE TOWARD MORNING WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY. THE STRONGEST
WINDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH WANING
LOW-LEVEL NOCTURNAL JET. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 20 KT
EARLY...OTHERWISE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT THIS PERIOD. SEAS
WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME 5 FT SEAS WILL BE PRESENT
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS TONIGHT WILL
BE SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE MON
MORNING. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DOMINATE MON WITH THE WINDS BACKING TO
SSW DURING TUE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVE HOURS WITH SEABREEZE INFLUENCES KICKING UP WIND
SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH UP TO 4 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE WED-THU WITH
WEAK INLAND TROUGHING. AS A RESULT...A S-SW FETCH WILL PREVAIL
WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT OR LESS
EACH DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. THE NEXT
HIGH TIDE HERE IS JUST BEFORE NOON.

TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL BEGIN TO WANE WITH THE NEW MOON NOW A
COUPLE DAYS BEHIND US. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR
NEAR MIDDAY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER IS EXPECTED WITH THE LATE NIGHT HIGH TIDE.

CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS RECENT DAYS THAT MINOR FLOODING WILL
OCCUR AT THE BEACHES WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE AT THE
BEACHES IS NEAR 10 PM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD/SHK
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...RAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

 628 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINAS TODAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES
ACROSS OUR REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS FRONT MOVING FARTHER NORTH INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE CWFA AS WELL.

FOR TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT FROM THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES
ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP INDUCE SOME WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION (800 MB-600 MB) ACROSS THE SRN CWFA. THE RESULT WILL
BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS MOSTLY KEEP THE SHOWER THREAT IN THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATER HRRR RUNS TRY TO CREEP IT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S WHERE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF PCPN
IS EXPECTED...TO THE UPPER 60S WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THIN AND
SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. WE
SHOULD SEE A RESPITE IN THE THREAT FOR PCPN.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL CAUSE CLOUDS
AND SOME PCPN TO DEVELOP...SLOWLY SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER SO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARE ONLY WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

ON MONDAY...A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODELS...THE NAM...AND
THE ECMWF WERE USED FOR THE FORECAST. THE GFS LOOKED OVERDONE IN
TERMS OF HEAVIER QPF ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES. STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY CREEP INTO OUR SRN CWFA DURING THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTHWARD INTO NRN INDIANA AND NRN OHIO. THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT HAVE
DECIDED TO STAY AT HIGH CHANCE AT THIS TIME. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOW...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ONLY SHOWERS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
A LITTLE MORE INTO OUR AREA BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME QUASI
STATIONARY AT SOME POINT. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASE IN PCPN CHANCES ALONG WITH AN ADDED THREAT FOR
THUNDER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGER OF
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COVERAGE WANING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. MEANWHILE...OUR LINGERING BOUNDARY MAY
FINALLY PUSH AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

HAVE USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE OR CONSENSUS GUIDANCE (MOS AND
RAW MODEL TEMPERATURE OUTPUT) THROUGH THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S. A COLD
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...LEADING TO A DRYING TREND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST...AFFECTING THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES THIS MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY AFFECTING DAYTON DURING THE AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THESE
SHOWERS ARE UNLIKELY TO REDUCE FLIGHT CATEGORIES...AND BECAUSE
THEIR TIMING IS NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN...THEY WILL BE COVERED IN
THE TAFS WITH A VCSH.

WESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL SET UP TODAY FOR COLUMBUS
AND DAYTON...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR CINCINNATI. THESE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN OVERNIGHT...BEFORE EVENTUALLY
PICKING UP SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY
MORNING.

HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND BECOME THICKER
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GREATER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ALSO MOVE IN ON
MONDAY...JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY POSSIBLE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HATZOS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS Tulsa OK

 1028 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Lead shortwave impulse lifting northeast this morning through west
Texas, along east side of primary upper circulation just east of
Four Corners, has resulted in fairly widespread coverage of light
showers with some embedded elevated thunderstorms across central
and eastern OK. As this feature lifts northeast, would expect an
uptick in precip coverage to continue from eastern OK and
eventually into northwest AR by this afternoon. HRRR has been
consistent with this signal for several runs now. Little in the
way of severe weather potential with the elevated storms , though
some small hail possible in stronger cores. Updated forecast will
reflect higher precip chances in the first period.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Strong and gusty south winds will develop today ahead of upper
wave. Could see a few isolated thunderstorms this morning or
early afternoon but overall coverage should be limited. Added a
PROB30 group for eastern OK TAF sites for any thunderstorms
activity moving in from the west late tonight. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Elevated scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Today
with the aid of isentropic lift and an upper level shortwave
moving out of Texas and across the area. This activity should
move into the area early to mid morning and exit late this
afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop
late this afternoon across far western Oklahoma in the vicinity
of the dryline and push off to the northeast. This activity may
move into portions of the area later this evening and overnight.
This activity will also be elevated in nature as it moves into the
region. Some of these storms could become strong to severe with
large hail the main concern.

Elevated showers and thunderstorms will again develop late tonight
and into Monday morning across the area as another upper level
shortwave moves across the area. The greatest risk for severe weather
across eastern Oklahoma and western arkansas will come late Monday
afternoon into Monday night as Thunderstorms Develop along the dryline
across central Oklahoma with the aid of a more significant upper level
shortwave and move into the region. There is expected to be enough
instability and deep layer shear to support severe thunderstorms.
Large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will also be possible with
this activity. The thunderstorm activity is expected to exit the region
late Monday night.

Tuesday is expected to be dry as the area will be between storm systems.
Tuesday will also be the hottest day of the week with high temperatures
expected to be in the 80s area-wide.

The chances of showers and thunderstorms return on Wednesday as an upper
level low moving out of the northern Rockies and across the plains pushes
a cold front through the region. After a dry day on Thursday, showers and
thunderstorms return to the forecast Friday into Saturday as another cold
front affects the region.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  65  78  63 /  60  40  60  60
FSM   81  63  79  66 /  60  40  80  60
MLC   78  66  80  67 /  60  40  70  60
BVO   78  65  79  60 /  60  40  60  60
FYV   76  62  72  62 /  60  40  80  60
BYV   78  60  72  62 /  60  40  80  60
MKO   79  62  77  64 /  60  40  70  60
MIO   79  63  76  64 /  60  40  80  60
F10   78  64  79  65 /  60  40  60  60
HHW   78  64  80  67 /  60  40  70  60

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....20




SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.



 &&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM FAR E SD THROUGH N IA WILL QUICKLY
EXIT TO S IN THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND INCREASED DEW POINTS WILL BE...LIMITING FIRE CONCERNS.
ALSO FIRE WISE...SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE A MINOR NUISANCE...WITH VIS
EVEN AT RAP FALLING AS A RESULT. CONTINUED MENTION OF PATCHY SMOKE
IN THE FCST FOR ALL BUT THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA TODAY.

HIGHEST TEMPS THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S W TO THE LOW 70S E. MID 60S WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE LOWEST RH WILL AGAIN BE OVER NE SD AND W CENTRAL
MN...WITH MIN RH AGAIN AROUND 20 PERCENT. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY 10-
15MPH OR LESS. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN AS WE MOVE
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LINGERING SMOKE SHOULD EXIT NE THIS
EVENING AS PRECIP NEARS FROM THE SW.

WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL WAIT UNTIL MONDAY-
MONDAY NIGHT...WILL STILL HAVE SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THE SW CORNER
OF THE CWA FOR THE MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. TS POTENTIAL LOOKS
VERY LIMITED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

INCREASED RAINFALL SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
QPF 0.5-0.75IN OVER THE S TIER OF COUNTIES. ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF
THINGS...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS WILL FALL NE OF MBG. THIS WILL BE
WHILE THE SFC LOW OVER W KS MOVES OVER CENTRAL KS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH A PORTION OF THE LOW LIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL SD DURING
THE DAY...AND THE 500MB LOW OVER UT/CO/S WY MOVES OVERHEAD. SIMILAR
THINKING FOR MONDAY WITH MAINLY JUST EMBEDDED TS POTENTIAL. SE WINDS
AROUND 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE E HALF.

A REINFORCING 500MB LOW ACROSS W MT AT 00Z TUESDAY WILL CROSS E MT
AND INTO THE W DAKOTAS BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT PRECIP
WILL REMAIN INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN 24 HOURS FOR THE EXTENDED.

THE HIGHLIGHTS IN THE OUT PERIODS CONTINUE TO INCLUDE HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES RUNNING GENERALLY ABOUT A CATEGORY TO PERHAPS TWO
CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STILL SHOWING UP EARLIER IN THE PERIOD /TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/ BEFORE A DRIER-WEATHER-PRODUCING-UPPER-
LEVEL-FLOW-PATTERN SETS UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE
WEEKEND. 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS 925HPA THERMAL PROGS DIP
BELOW 0C FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST OUT OF THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ON STRONG WINDS MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK
SUGGESTS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE SEEING SOME
HIGHER END WIND ADVISORY /30 TO 40MPH/ TO PERHAPS LOWER END HIGH
WIND WARNING /35 TO 45MPH/ TYPE SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY BE RUNNING
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING ALONG WITH SOME SMOKE MOVING OVER THE REGION. LOW AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS EVEN A WEAK
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE KPIR TERMINAL
TODAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SET UP
LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 1021 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...
WE JUST SENT AN UPDATE TO RE-TREND FORECAST VARIABLES THROUGH
00Z/7PM. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35. RECENT HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG TO LOW END
SEVERE STORMS JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA...AND A SECOND LINE OF
STORMS THAT WOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER SHOULD LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL
AREAS. THE HWO WAS UPDATED TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY OF THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE
ISOLATED...SO NO MENTION OUTSIDE OF THE HWO AND HERE.
OTHERWISE...EVERYTHING ELSE IN ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/

AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/

HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO OVERFORECAST THE RAINFALL INTENSITIES OF
THE EARLY MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION...BUT FORECAST PWAT VALUES
CONTINUE TO SOAR FOR LATER TODAY. THUS EXPECT SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION TO BEGIN AROUND MIDDAY AND IMPACT MAINLY THE I-35
TERMINAL SITES IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPO SHOWER
GROUPS AS CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING IS NOT QUITE THERE
YET GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE RAPID REFRESH MODELS. CIGS A
FEW HUNDRED FEET EITHER SIDE OF 2000 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
I-35 TERMINAL SITES WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE VFR SKIES WILL HOLD AT DRT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING. HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING AND A CONTINUED WEAK SIGNAL FOR
MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL HAVE THE LATER PERIODS WITH MORE
PESSIMISTIC SKIES FINISHING OUT THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS IFR
CIGS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AREA RADARS CONTINUE TO PICK UP LIGHT RETURNS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS IN PLACE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TO
OUR NORTHWEST AND THIS IS HELPING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. THE 00Z KDRT RAOB SHOWED
A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WHICH IS PREVENTING MUCH OF THE ELEVATED ACTIVITY FROM REACHING
THE GROUND. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARY AT
850 AND 700 MB WHICH SHOULD HELP FOCUS THE ACTIVITY. THIS FEATURE
CAN BE SEEN IN MODEL QPF FIELDS WITH A BAND OF FORECASTED RAINFALL
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS IS GENERALLY IN THE SAME LOCATION AS
THIS CONVERGENT ZONE. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...THE RAIN
WILL HAVE THE DRY AIRMASS TO OVERCOME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INITIALLY SHOW THE FAIRLY STOUT DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB...BUT BY
00Z THE SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY SATURATED WHICH WOULD THEN SUPPORT
THE RAINFALL REACHING THE SURFACE. WILL FORECAST A 40 POP FOR THE
HILL COUNTRY WHERE THE BEST ZONE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODEST AT BEST AND AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL FORCING IS EXPECTED JUST NORTH OF THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NORTH OF OUR
CWA BUT SOME ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE A BIT BETTER IN THIS REGION
AND THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM. THIS AREA IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH HAS SPED UP A
BIT. THE EASTWARD PUSH OF THE TROUGH WITH WEST WINDS FROM 500 DOWN
TO 850 MB SHOULD ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO SURGE EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. WITH THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...THE DRYLINE
SHOULD BE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AS IT MIXES EAST
DURING THE DAY. AT 18Z...CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DRYLINE
NEARING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND IT BEING EAST OF THERE BY 00Z. THIS
FEATURE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL
INITIALLY BE POOR DUE TO EXPECTED CAPE VALUES...BUT SOME BREAKS IN
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE. ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE BUT MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR REGARDING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. PW VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES WITH
A 1000-500 MB MEAN RH LESS THAN 40 PERCENT. HIGH-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AND WILL ONLY HAVE
POPS BETWEEN 20-40 PERCENT FOR THE EASTERN CWA. SPC HAS THIS AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH SLIGHT AND ENHANCED
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA WHERE THE BEST UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AND OUTSIDE OF A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY QUIET DAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WILL SHOW 20 POPS
FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHICH COULD HELP WITH THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

ON THURSDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED TO THE
WEST OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS THE GFS STALLS THE BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE ECMWF HAS IT IN OUR CWA. REGARDLESS OF THE
SCENARIO...THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ON FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
RAIN FREE. ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS
ON FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
TO MAINLY OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              82  69  90  70  93 /  40  40  20  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  82  69  89  70  93 /  40  30  20  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  69  90  68  93 /  40  30  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  67  88  68  93 /  40  40  20  10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           85  67  95  66  95 /  40  20  10  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  69  87  71  92 /  40  40  20  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  69  92  66  95 /  40  30  20  -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  68  88  68  91 /  40  30  20  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   82  70  87  71  90 /  20  20  40  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  69  91  69  92 /  40  30  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           85  69  92  69  94 /  40  20  20  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS LITTLE ROCK AR

 1226 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE STATE AS
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING OVER WRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. THE MORE
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE LOCATION AND
PROGRESSION OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND THE HRRR SHOW THIS ACTIVITY
SPREADING FURTHER EAST THAN EARLIER EXPECTED.

HAVE ALSO UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

SHRA AND SOME ISOLATED TSRA ARE DEVELOPING OVER WRN SECTIONS OF
AR...AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NE AND EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...THOUGH UNDER THE MORE INTENSE
PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL SEE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. CHANCES FOR
MORE SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND ON MON.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE STATE THIS
MORNING. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 50S BUT THESE WILL
RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN.
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE IN THE WEST PART OF THE
STATE. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON
MONDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE MAIN THREATS...AND WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND THEN WILL BE COOLER MONDAY WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER AND WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT DIVERGED TOO MUCH FM PREVIOUS RUNS
REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. A PROGRESSIVE UPR FLOW PATTERN WL
BRING SEVERAL UPR LVL SYSTEMS ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD...
RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

RAIN CHCS WL BE DIMINISHING ACRS THE FA ON TUE AS THE FIRST IN THE
SERIES OF UPR LVL IMPULSES DEPARTS THE REGION. THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WL ARRIVE LATER WED AND THU AS ANOTHER UPR SHRTWV
INTERACTS WITH AN CDFNT DROPPING SWD INTO AR. THE CDFNT IS FCST TO
DROP S OF THE FA BY FRI...ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO BRIEFLY BLD INTO THE
FA AS THE UPR FLOW PATTERN BCMS NWLY.

YET ANOTHER CDFNT WL DROP SEWD INTO AR HEADING INTO SAT. THE BNDRY
WL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO KEPT LOW CHC POPS IN THE
FCST FOR NOW.

$$

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

 925 AM MST SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG
WARMING TREND WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT
THIS TIME...WITH A MIXTURE OF CUMULOFORM CLOUDS AND CIRRIFORM CLOUDS
MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S-MID 30S...AND THESE TEMPS WERE GENERALLY
UNCHANGED VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 08/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP
WATER VALUE OF 0.63 INCH WAS 0.15 INCH HIGHER VERSUS THIS TIME SAT.
THE COLUMN WAS NEARLY SATURATED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...AND WAS
VERY DRY ABOVE 500 MB.

08/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH THE PRIMARY CENTER ANALYZED OVER NWRN
COLORADO/SERN UTAH. HOWEVER...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/VORT LOBES
WERE ALSO ANALYZED ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTED ONE OF THESE VORT LOBES OVER NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AT
THIS TIME. MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS SE
ARIZONA THIS MORNING.

08/12Z NAM/GFS...08/12Z UNIV OF ARIZONA WRF-NAM AND SEVERAL HRRR
SOLUTIONS WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP INTO THIS EVENING TO BE CONFINED TO GENERALLY ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE 08/09Z SREF WAS AN EXCEPTION...AND DEPICTED A
POTENTIAL SECONDARY AREA OF MEASURABLE PRECIP TO OCCUR ACROSS SANTA
CRUZ/SWRN COCHISE COUNTY.

BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS...WILL UPDATE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO
REDUCE POPS ABOUT 5-10 PERCENT OR SO FROM TUCSON WWD ACROSS THE WRN
DESERTS. WILL STILL DEPICT CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
STILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS GENERALLY AS FAR
WEST AS THE TUCSON METRO AREA.

THE NRN BAJA CALIF VORT LOBE IS PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY EWD INTO FAR
WEST TEXAS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL REDUCE POPS TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AREA-WIDE LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TEMPS ACHIEVED
SAT...AND WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/18Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL TODAY ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF KTUS. SURFACE
WINDS STRONGEST EAST OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KTS. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR
SKIES OR A FEW CLOUDS ABOVE 15K FT AGL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. SURFACE WIND SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND INTO MONDAY MORNING
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO NEXT SATURDAY. A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL
OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /259 AM MST/...THE PERSISTENT OMEGA BLOCK WHICH HAS
KEPT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN RELATIVELY STAGNANT OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY DEAMPLIFY AND BREAK DOWN. AS A
RESULT...THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL FINALLY
BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD TODAY. IN THE MEANTIME...WE`RE LOOKING AT ONE
MORE DAY OF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES A PLEASANT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

CURRENTLY...A SERIES OF VORT MAXES PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
ARE ONCE AGAIN FACILITATING SOME ELEVATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PARTS OF PINAL COUNTY. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE LEANED ON IT FOR THE
SHORT TERM POP TRENDS THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
REMAINING JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA. WHAT SHOULD BE THE LAST IN THE
WAVE OF VORT LOBES SHOULD THEN SWEEP ACROSS (OR JUST SOUTH OF) THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING LOOKS RATHER MEAGER (HEIGHTS MAY
ACTUALLY RISE AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD) BUT IT APPEARS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO WARRANT LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WHITES.

SOLID HEIGHT RISES AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE HOLD SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MIGRATES INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BEGIN A STRONG WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES TAKING A JUMP INTO THE 90S ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
POSSIBLY MAKING A RUN AT THE CENTURY MARK ON THURSDAY FROM TUCSON AND
INTO THE WESTERN ARIZONA DESERTS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE ARE ALSO SOME SIGNS OF A BACKDOOR FRONT SLOSHING SOME MOISTURE
INTO OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
TIME FRAME...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS FOR NOW
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED SHALLOW NATURE OF ANY SURFACE MOISTURE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CARLAW




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA

 304 PM PDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY...DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW THAT IMPACTED THE REGION THE PAST FEW
DAYS CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER AND A SUBTLE WARMING TREND. THE SHORT TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA...WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN BACKING OFF ON SHOWERS ALONG THE WEST SIDE RUN
AFTER RUN TODAY...WHICH IS LEADING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
SIERRA CREST GENERALLY FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD. CU BUILDUPS
WERE ALSO PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH THE
ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS MIXED WITH A FEW
HOURS OF DIRECT SUNLIGHT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

GENERALLY UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA CREST DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY.
THE SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
ADVERTISING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK. SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON THESE DAYS...WHICH IS BETWEEN 5 AND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF MAY.

A COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE NEXT WEEKEND OVER THE REGION AS A
STORM SYSTEM BRUSHES NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DIP TO NEAR NORMAL BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THRU 06Z
MON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...ROWE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 241 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

...SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TOMORROW...

CURRENTLY...WIDELY SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER
THE AREA...AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
H5 CENTER IS OVER ERN WY...BUT SRN EXTENT OF THE LOW EXTENDS SWRD
INTO NM...AND A COUPLE DISTURBANCES IN THIS BROADER CIRCULATION WILL
MOVE THROUGH SE CO THROUGH MONDAY. STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN PRETTY
WEAK...AND DEW POINTS NR THE KS BORDER HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND THE
4O DEGREE MARK...SO SVR THREAT ATTM LOOKS LIMITED. WILL STILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO OVER THE SERN PLAINS...BUT THE
PROBABILITY LOOKS PRETTY LOW.

THIS FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVE. THE HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE BEEN A
BIT TOO SPARSE WITH COVERAGE OVERALL...SO HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER
RES NAM RUNS FOR POP COVERAGE IN THE SHORT TERM. STILL DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH QPF OVERALL. NEXT WAVE OF ACTIVITY WILL COME
LATER TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE IMPACT FROM
THIS WAVE SHOULD BE MAINLY WEST OF I-25...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS. MTS COULD SEE ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH MON
MORNING...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN
HIGH...GENERALLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. KCPW AND THE SAN JUANS LOOK TO
BENEFIT THE MOST FROM SNOWFALL THROUGH TOMORROW.

TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE
PLAINS...WHILE THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS MAY STAY IN THE 30S-40S ONCE
AGAIN DUE TO WIDESPREAD MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PRECIP. STORM
COVERAGE E OF THE MTS NOT LOOKING TERRIBLY GREAT TOMORROW...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR TS MON AFTERNOON...SO WILL
LEAVE VERY LOW POPS...AROUND 10 PERCENT...OVER THE ERN PLAINS FOR
NOW. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

LATE MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE IT LOOK GENERALLY DRY ACRS THE
FORECAST AREA...AHEAD OF A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE
WEATHER LATER TUE.  TUE AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WL BE TRACKING
FROM SERN MT INTO NWRN SD.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPR TROF THAT WL
MOVE INTO CO...WL BRING PCPN TO THE CONTDVD BY LATE TUE
MORNING...THEN SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN MTNS AS WELL TUE
AFTERNOON.  TOWARD TUE EVENING SOME ISOLD TO SCT PCPN SHOULD ALSO
SPREAD EAST OVER THE SERN CO PLAINS. MOST LOCATIONS ON TUE SHOULD
SEE TEMPS THAT ARE AROUND AVERAGE.

TUE NIGHT A FRONT WL DROP S THRU THE SERN PLAINS AS THE UPR TROF
MOVES ACRS CO. IT MAY BE UNSETTLED ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO
LINGER ACRS THE CENTRAL AND ERN MTNS AND THE SERN PLAINS...HOWEVER
BY WED MORNING MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS DRY.  WED AFTERNOON A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA AND COULD HELP TRIGGER
SOME ISOLD PCPN ACRS THE MTNS AND ERN AREAS.  HIGH TEMPS ON WED WL
BE COOLER AND WL BE BELOW AVERAGE.

THU LOOKS LIKE A DRIER DAY ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ISOLD PCPN MAINLY OVR THE MTNS AREA.  TEMPS WL BE WARMER ON
THU AND SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.  AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR
THE AREA FOR FRI...WITH TEMPS WARMING A LITTLE MORE.  FOR SAT AND
SUN THE UPR RIDGE GETS FLATTENED OVR THE AREA WITH SOME MSTR IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING OVR THE AREA ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MSTR OVR EASTERN AREAS AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS. WL PROBABLY SEE ISOLD TO SCT PCPN ACRS THE MTN AND PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE CHANCE OF SOME ISOLD TO SCT TS THROUGH
ABOUT 02-03Z THIS EVE. THEN...LATE TONIGHT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE CONTDVD AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...AND
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9-10000 FEET COULD SEE SOME MORE SNOW. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE SOME OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LOWER CIGS A BIT INVOF
KCOS TOMORROW MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK RELATIVELY
ISOLD FOR MON AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS INVOF ANY STORM ACTIVITY. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 1113 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

UPDATED FORECAST/GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. AREA OF
SHOWERS NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE SW MTS...BUT WILL TAKE
A WHILE TO SPREAD EWD TO THE ERN RANGES AND PLAINS. HRRR THIS
AFTERNOON LOOKS PRETTY SPARSE WITH SHWR/TS COVERAGE...WHILE THE
12Z NAM MIGHT BE OVERDONE. HAVE MOVED BACK TIMING A BIT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO DECREASED OVERALL POPS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE STATE TODAY.
THIS WILL BRING UNSTABLE AIR TO THE REGION...RESULTING IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE...MAINLY
ACROSS KIOWA AND PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES...AFTER 2 PM.  MODELS
SHOW THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS PUSHING INTO THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME...WITH LOW LEVEL MUCAPES RANGING FROM 600 TO 1700
J/KG.  THE HIGHEST CAPES ARE INDICATED TO BE ACROSS EASTERN KIOWA
AND NORTHEASTERN PROWERS COUNTIES...AND THIS IS LIKELY THE AREA WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.  STORMS OUT THAT WAY
COULD PRODUCE HAIL 1 INCH OR MORE IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH OR MORE. ELSEWHERE...CAPES WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE OF 400 TO
600 J/KG...WITH PRIMARY STORM THREATS OF LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO 1/2
INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE
10000 FEET TODAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO NEAR 8000 FEET OR
POSSIBLY LOWER TONIGHT.  3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ABOVE 10000 FEET DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE
BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS WILL
SWING A PIECE OF ENERGY AROUND ON THE WESTERN SIDE DOWN ACROSS
COLORADO ON MONDAY...AND THE RESULTING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO LIKELY CONVECTION OVER THE MTS...AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S AND 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TUE WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH A
TEMPORARY RIDGE OVER THE STATE. A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING...THEN
DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE MTS IS STILL ON
TAP. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE A
MOVE LATE TUE...STARTING TO EJECT TO THE NE INTO CANADA ON WED. THIS
WILL PROMPT SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE E PLAINS LATE TUE INTO WED AS
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR A
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY TUE...WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 60S TO
NEAR 80F NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. WED WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL
BRING MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THU AND FRI WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S. THERE WILL BE A DAILY SHOT OF ISOLATED MT
CONVECTION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN FOR
SAT...INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE MTS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...AS
WELL AS COOLING TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
TS SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE CO PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE.
WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY VCTS...BUT PROBABILITY OF STORMS
AFFECTING THE TAF SITES IS LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THR5OUGH
LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-25...MON MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN PICK UP OVER THE MTS MON AFTERNOON.
ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
303 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016

19z/2pm surface analysis shows a stationary frontal boundary
extending from northeast Kansas to southern Kentucky.  As a short
wave trough evident on latest water vapor imagery over
Oklahoma/Kansas lifts northward, it will give the front a push
northward tonight as well.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms have
already developed along the front in association with the
approaching wave across eastern Kansas into central/western
Missouri...and this activity is expected to develop/spread
northeastward into central Illinois this evening.  With a deeper
fetch of Gulf of Mexico moisture now apparent on water vapor imagery
and surface dewpoints across the Plains in the lower to middle 60s,
there will be adequate moisture available for precip development
tonight.  The main difference between the models is how quickly the
rain arrives.  The HRRR has been consistently faster than the other
models, with showers arriving as far north as the I-74 corridor as
early as 03-04z.  Meanwhile, the 12z NAM had been a couple hours
slower, generally keeping the far northern CWA dry until around
midnight.  The 18z run of the NAM has quickened the process and now
looks very similar to the HRRR.  As a result, will be adjusting PoPs
to carry likely/categorical everywhere north of the I-70 corridor by
mid to late evening.  The rain will lift northward through the night
and will likely be mainly along/north of I-74 by early Monday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016

The northward progression of a warm front will highlight the
day on Monday, and signal increasing temps and dewpoints for the
first half of the week, along with chances for strong storms.

Monday morning will see a band of ongoing convection lifting north
across central Illinois ahead of the front, with precip generally
north of I-72 by sunrise. The mid-morning may see a break in the
rainfall for a majority of our forecast area. Storm chances will
increase from SW to NE late Monday morning and afternoon as an upper
level wave progresses eastward along the warm front. Our entire area
is included in a Marginal Risk (5%) of severe storms Monday
afternoon/eve. Instability params are pointing toward areas west
of Springfield to Peoria having higher instability values than our
eastern counties. MUCAPES of 1000-1400 J/kg could develop in the
west by afternoon if some sunshine develops during the break in
the rain Monday morning. Bulk shear values are marginal, in the
20-35kt range with the lower values in W IL and higher near
Indiana. Will keep likely PoPs Monday afternoon and categorical
PoPs Mon night as a strong upper level wave progresses across IL
into Tuesday morning. Storm chances will diminish by mid-morning
on Tuesday, but increase again Tues afternoon as a 500mb shortwave
lifts across central IL. MUCAPES on Tues afternoon look to climb
into the 2000-3000 J/kg range, with bulk shear of 30-35kt. The SPC
Marginal risk is currently south of I-72, which may get changed to
a Slight risk before Tuesday arrives if current instability trends
continue. We kept likely PoPs Tues afternoon, with large hail and
damaging winds possible with the strongest storms. Low level
helicity values appear supportive of rotating updrafts, especially
in east-central and southeast IL.

A NAM is advertising a break in the rain/storms for Tuesday night
and Wed morning, before the next wave of low pressure reaches IL Wed
afternoon. Will keep lower chance PoPs during that time to account
for possible scattered redevelopment along lingering boundaries.

Our area will remain in the warm sector Monday afternoon through
Wednesday, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s Monday
through Tuesday, then climbing into the mid to upper 60s on
Wednesday. That will help fuel another round of strong to severe
storms late Wed afternoon but primarily Wed night, as MUCAPES
possibly reach 3000-4500 J/kg across our forecast area, with the
highest instability in southeast IL. Bulk shear values in SE IL will
be marginal again, with 20-35kts indicated in the 12z NAM output. We
ramped up PoPs Wed night to likely over most of our counties, as a
cold front pushes from west to east, reaching just east of I-57 by
12z/7am Thursday.

Cooler and drier air will filter into Illinois behind that cold
front, bringing a break in the rain for Thur and Thursday night.
Highs will be in the low to mid 70s on Thurs, with highs on
Friday in the upper 60s N of I-74 and low 70s S of I-70. Rain
chances will increase Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front
arrives from the Northern Plains. There are differing solutions in
the extended models about the path of the surface low, but timing
still looks close for Fri aftn and Fri night rain.

Dry and much cooler conditions are projected for next weekend,
with highs only in the upper 50s to low 60s on Saturday, and
overnight lows in the lower 40s Saturday night. Highs on Sunday
look to climb a few degrees above Saturday, as southerly winds
develop ahead of the next rain producer for Sunday night into
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at the central Illinois terminals
through the afternoon before a warm front begins to lift northward
toward the area tonight. Models have been consistently showing
showers and thunderstorms developing north of the front across
Missouri later this afternoon, then spreading/developing
northeastward into central Illinois during the evening. Still some
discrepancies about how fast this process will unfold, but general
consensus brings scattered showers into KSPI by 02z...then further
north to KPIA by around 06z. Main forecast challenge will be
how low the ceilings will drop with the rain later tonight. HRRR
suggests only MVFR, while the NAM points to a more pessimistic IFR
forecast. Given increasing moisture along/north of the approaching
warm front, prefer lower ceilings. As such, have introduced IFR at
KSPI by 05z, then further north to KPIA by 10z. The rain/low
clouds will tend to lift north of the TAF sites by Monday morning,
so have raised ceilings to VFR and dropped predominant rain
mention after the 12-15z time frame.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Barnes




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

300 PM...CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN MO WILL CONTINUE
LIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT LIKELY ARRIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
CWA LATE THIS EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THERE HAS APPEARED TO BE A
SHARP CUT OFF TO THIS PRECIP THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE HOW FAR
NORTH THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND BY MORNING. DIDN/T MAKE MANY CHANGES
WITH LIKELY POPS EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY RFD/JOT/RZL. STILL APPEARS
THERE MAY BE A LULL FROM MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE WARM FRONT BEGINS LIFTING NORTH ACCOMPANIED BY
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE. BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND DURATION
OF ANY LULL AND FOR THAT REASON MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS UNTIL
LATER AFTERNOON WHEN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MONDAY EVENING WITH A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA FOR DAY2. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
NO CHANGE TO PWATS IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. MODEL QPF SHOWS THE
HEAVIEST AXIS FROM WEST/NORTHWEST IL BACK INTO PARTS OF IOWA.

TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY END UP SIMILAR TO MONDAY...DIFFICULT
TO SEE MUCH WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
SO PERHAPS A LULL MIDDAY BUT WITH SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON NOW THAT THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.

TEMPS MAY QUICKLY DROP THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLEAR SKIES...BUT
SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SPREAD NORTH. WITH THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...TEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S WITH MAV SUGGESTING LOW/MID 50S...THUS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HIGHS MONDAY. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S
TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS AT THE LAKE WITH EASTERLY FLOW. CMS

&&

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

300 PM...ANY ACTIVITY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS TO END
WITH POSSIBLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. IF
WEDNESDAY PANS OUT DRY WITH SOME PARTIAL SUN...IT WILL LIKELY BE
QUITE WARM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT/LOW. GUIDANCE
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE LAKE WITH EITHER
A LAKE BREEZE OR AN EASTERLY GRADIENT DEVELOPING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THEN POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DRY PERIOD DOES NOW APPEAR TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THURSDAY POSSIBLY BECOMING BREEZY/WINDY.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ECMWF/GFS HAVE
BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS AND NOW SHOWING -2C TO -4C
AT 850MB BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH VERY SLOWLY MODERATES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE IMPORTANT BUT LOWS
IN AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 30S SEEM POSSIBLE AND THIS COULD RESULT
IN SOME FROST. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

CONCERNS:

- TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
- TIMING OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
- THUNDER POTENTIAL LATER MONDAY

A LAKE BREEZE CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW INLAND PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE
THROUGH ORD/MDW AROUND 1930Z...POSSIBLY A BIT LATER AT MDW AS IT
IS NOT MOVING AS QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH. SPEEDS WITH THE LAKE
BREEZE HAVE LARGELY BEEN 8 KT OR LESS...AND NO REASON THAT THIS
WOULD INCREASE OTHER THAN RIGHT WITH THE LAKE BREEZE PASSAGE.
AFTER THE LAKE BREEZE EXPECT WINDS TO SETTLE TO A LIGHTER SE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE FIRST BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. MOISTURE IS WEAKER WITH THIS WAVE...PARTICULARLY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT FORCING SEEMS DECENT ENOUGH TO CARRY A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER SHRA. CARRIED AN EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE MORNING
WHICH MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AND NEED SOME DETAIL REFINEMENT BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN VFR. BETTER LOW LEVEL SATURATION
OCCURS IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD WHERE FORCING IS WEAKER AND SUPPORT DRIER TIMES
BEFORE MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES THROUGH...EVEN MORE SO IN THE EVENING. MVFR TRENDING TOWARD
IFR. DID NOT PUT THUNDER IN THE TAF...AS THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS A SMALLER CHANCE THAT ANY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY COULD HAVE EMBEDDED THUNDER.

KMD

&&

.MARINE...
242 PM CDT

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES
EASTWARD. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHILE A SERIES OF LOWS SLOWLY DRIFT EAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE WEEK. THESE
LOWS MAY MERGE MIDWEEK BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...APPROACHING 25/30 KT MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY LATE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM
NORTHERN CANADA.

KMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
300 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016

19z/2pm surface analysis shows a stationary frontal boundary
extending from northeast Kansas to southern Kentucky.  As a short
wave trough evident on latest water vapor imagery over
Oklahoma/Kansas lifts northward, it will give the front a push
northward tonight as well.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms have
already developed along the front in association with the
approaching wave across eastern Kansas into central/western
Missouri...and this activity is expected to develop/spread
northeastward into central Illinois this evening.  With a deeper
fetch of Gulf of Mexico moisture now apparent on water vapor imagery
and surface dewpoints across the Plains in the lower to middle 60s,
there will be adequate moisture available for precip development
tonight.  The main difference between the models is how quickly the
rain arrives.  The HRRR has been consistently faster than the other
models, with showers arriving as far north as the I-74 corridor as
early as 03-04z.  Meanwhile, the 12z NAM had been a couple hours
slower, generally keeping the far northern CWA dry until around
midnight.  The 18z run of the NAM has quickened the process and now
looks very similar to the HRRR.  As a result, will be adjusting PoPs
to carry likely/categorical everywhere north of the I-70 corridor by
mid to late evening.  The rain will lift northward through the night
and will likely be mainly along/north of I-74 by early Monday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016

The northward progression of a warm front will highlight the
day on Monday, and signal increasing temps and dewpoints for the
first half of the week, along with chances for strong storms.

Monday morning will see a band of ongoing convection lifting north
across central Illinois ahead of the front, with precip generally
north of I-72 by sunrise. The mid-morning may see a break in the
rainfall for a majority of our forecast area. Storm chances will
increase from SW to NE late Monday morning and afternoon as an upper
level wave progresses eastward along the warm front. Our entire area
in included in a Marginal Risk (5%) of severe storms Monday
afternoon/eve. Instability params are pointing toward areas west of
Springfield to Peoria having higher instability values than our
eastern counties. MUCAPES of 1000-1400 J/kg could develop in the
west by afternoon if some sunshine develops during the break in the
rain Monday morning. Bulk shear values are marginal, in the 20-35kt
range with the lower values in W IL and higher near Indiana. Will
keep likely PoPs Monday afternoon and categorical PoPs Mon night as
a strong upper level wave progresses across IL into Tuesday morning.
Storm chances will diminish by mid-morning on Tuesday, but increase
again Tues afternoon as a 500mb shortwave lifts across central IL.
MUCAPES on Tues afternoon look to climb into the 2000-3000 J/kg
range, with bulk shear of 30-35kt. The SPC Marginal risk is
currently south of I-72, which may get changed to a Slight risk
before Tuesday arrives if current instability trends continue. We
kept likely PoPs Tues afternoon, with large hail and damaging winds
possible with the strongest storms. Low level helicity values appear
supportive of rotating updrafts, especially in east-central and
southeast IL.

A NAM is advertising a break in the rain/storms for Tuesday night
and Wed morning, before the next wave of low pressure reaches IL Wed
afternoon. Will keep lower chance PoPs during that time to account
possible scattered redevelopment along lingering boundaries.

Our area will remain in the warm sector Monday afternoon through
Wednesday, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s Monday
through Tuesday, then climbing into the mid to upper 60s on
Wednesday. That will help fuel another round of strong to severe
storms late Wed afternoon but primarily Wed night, as MUCAPES
possibly reach 3000-4500 J/kg across our forecast area, with the
highest instability in southeast IL. Bulk shear values in SE IL will
be marginal again, with 20-35kts indicated in the 12z NAM output. We
ramped up PoPs Wed night to likely over most of our counties, as a
cold front pushes from west to east, reaching just east of I-57 by
12z/7am Thursday.

Cooler and drier air will filter into Illinois behind that cold
front, bringing a break in the rain for Thur and Thursday night.
Highs will stay in the low to mid 70s on Thurs, with highs on Friday
in the upper 60s N of I-74 and low 70s S of I-70. Rain chances will
increase Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front arrives from
the Northern Plains. There are differing solutions in the extended
models about the path of the surface low, but timing still looks
close for Fri aftn and Fri night rain. Dry and much cooler
conditions are projected for next weekend, with highs only in the
upper 50s to low 60s on Saturday, and overnight lows in the lower
40s Saturday night. Highs on Sunday look to climb a few degrees
above Saturday, as southerly winds develop ahead of the next rain
producer for Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at the central Illinois terminals
through the afternoon before a warm front begins to lift northward
toward the area tonight. Models have been consistently showing
showers and thunderstorms developing north of the front across
Missouri later this afternoon, then spreading/developing
northeastward into central Illinois during the evening. Still some
discrepancies about how fast this process will unfold, but general
consensus brings scattered showers into KSPI by 02z...then further
north to KPIA by around 06z. Main forecast challenge will be
how low the ceilings will drop with the rain later tonight. HRRR
suggests only MVFR, while the NAM points to a more pessimistic IFR
forecast. Given increasing moisture along/north of the approaching
warm front, prefer lower ceilings. As such, have introduced IFR at
KSPI by 05z, then further north to KPIA by 10z. The rain/low
clouds will tend to lift north of the TAF sites by Monday morning,
so have raised ceilings to VFR and dropped predominant rain
mention after the 12-15z time frame.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Barnes




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

 138 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...1038 AM CDT

A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS DRAPED NEAR A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE SEASONALLY MILD
CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE. LOW LEVEL WINDS APPEAR WEAK ENOUGH TO
PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE...THUS MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AT THE LAKEFRONT WITH SOME MID TO LATE AFTERNOON COOLING AWAY A
BIT FARTHER INLAND EXPECTED AS WELL. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
DOWNTOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A LOCAL
CLIMATOLOGY OF INLAND TEMPS NEAR 70.

KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT

THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP TRENDS TODAY
AND THEN LATER TONIGHT...AND THEN WITH AN ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED
THIS WEEK.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING SOME LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUING TO
STREAM SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...RIDING
ALONG SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY. AT THIS TIME...THESE SHOWERS ARE
STAYING SOUTH OF THE CWA. DO EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO SLIGHTLY LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING...AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ONLY EXPECT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA TO
OBSERVE PERIODIC LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND WITH THE BULK OF
ANY INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH...THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE
PRESENT OR BE VERY BRIEF/LIMITED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY THE
AFTERNOON BUT WITH CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA.
PRECIP/CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER WARMING IN THAT AREA BUT FOR
REMAINING AREAS ACROSS THE CWA...DO THINK TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY FORM LATER
TODAY...BUT WITH WARMING INTO THE 60S FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS TURN ONSHORE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A FAIRLY ENERGETIC VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE VARIES TO THE EXTENT OF THE NORTHEAST
PUSH OF THIS PRECIP WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING MOST OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA DRY TONIGHT...WHILE OTHER SWING
LARGE PRECIP SHIELD NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. KEPT THE IDEA OF PRECIP
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST TO THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT DID CONFINE HIGHEST POPS TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE FOR FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...ONCE AGAIN OWING FOR LOWER CONFIDENCE. INSTABILITY
APPEARS TO BE WEAK DURING THIS TIME BUT STRONGER FORCING WITH THIS
WAVE COULD OFFSET LACKING INSTABILITY...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.

DUE TO THE VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE WILL
BE IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR
WHATEVER PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT TO LINGER AT LEAST FOR A TIME IN
THE MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE EAST. A DRY PERIOD COULD BE
OBSERVED BEFORE TURN ATTENTION TO LIKELY REDEVELOPMENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THIS WITH NORTHWARD PUSHING BOUNDARY AND MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL HELP FOR THIS REDEVELOPMENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY KEY FOR STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE VARIES TO THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT ITS VERY POSSIBLE FOR IT TO PUSH
NORTH INTO AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. WITH THIS
POSSIBILITY...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED FOR SOME STRONGER DEVELOPMENT
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD
AND EVEN MORE INTO THE EVENING...IF THE BOUNDARY LIFTS FURTHER
NORTH. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT HAVE
MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY AND THINK TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE MOST LOCATIONS
OBSERVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM DOES APPEAR TO WEAKEN
DURING THAT TIME THOUGH WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE WEAKER
SIDE. HOWEVER...HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR IN THE PRESENCE OF A
LINGERING BOUNDARY COULD AID FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL THEN LIKELY DIMINISH/EXIT TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH BUT PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH.
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS LOW BUT ADVERTISED
PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND ANOTHER PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON. LOOKS
LIKE SOME DRY PERIODS SHOULD RETURN BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...BUT WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO POSSIBLY WORK ITS WAY
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

CONCERNS:

- TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
- TIMING OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
- THUNDER POTENTIAL LATER MONDAY

A LAKE BREEZE CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW INLAND PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE
THROUGH ORD/MDW AROUND 1930Z...POSSIBLY A BIT LATER AT MDW AS IT
IS NOT MOVING AS QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH. SPEEDS WITH THE LAKE
BREEZE HAVE LARGELY BEEN 8 KT OR LESS...AND NO REASON THAT THIS
WOULD INCREASE OTHER THAN RIGHT WITH THE LAKE BREEZE PASSAGE.
AFTER THE LAKE BREEZE EXPECT WINDS TO SETTLE TO A LIGHTER SE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE FIRST BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. MOISTURE IS WEAKER WITH THIS WAVE...PARTICULARLY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT FORCING SEEMS DECENT ENOUGH TO CARRY A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER SHRA. CARRIED AN EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE MORNING
WHICH MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AND NEED SOME DETAIL REFINEMENT BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN VFR. BETTER LOW LEVEL SATURATION
OCCURS IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD WHERE FORCING IS WEAKER AND SUPPORT DRIER TIMES
BEFORE MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES THROUGH...EVEN MORE SO IN THE EVENING. MVFR TRENDING TOWARD
IFR. DID NOT PUT THUNDER IN THE TAF...AS THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS A SMALLER CHANCE THAT ANY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY COULD HAVE EMBEDDED THUNDER.

KMD

&&

.MARINE...
302 AM CDT

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST LATER TODAY. AS A LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...BUT
REMAIN WEAK. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY. THE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
MUCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS...HOWEVER WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BACK TO 10 TO
20 KT TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEACHLER

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1256 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 AM CDT Sun May 8 2016

14z/9am surface analysis shows stationary frontal boundary
extending from northern Missouri to southern Kentucky. While no
precipitation is currently occurring along this particular boundary,
a persistent band of showers associated with the upper-level
front continues from eastern Iowa across north-central Illinois.
Latest radar imagery shows the showers primarily along and north
of the I-74 corridor. HRRR and 12z NAM both suggest these showers
will continue to lift slowly northeastward and dissipate over the
next 2-3 hours. Have therefore updated PoPs to remove rain mention
south of I-74 from now through mid-afternoon. As the day
progresses, the surface front will gradually become active, with
showers/thunder developing along/north of the boundary across
Missouri...then slowly spreading across south-central Illinois by
mid to late afternoon. Have added low chance PoPs along/south of a
Canton to Mattoon line after 21z accordingly. Better rain chances
will develop tonight as the low-level jet interacts with the
approaching warm front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT Sun May 8 2016

A frontal boundary that brought some severe thunderstorms with
damaging wind gusts south of I-70 between 6-7 pm on Saturday, has
slipped sw of ILX`s CWA early this morning and extends just south of
I-64 in southern IL. A narrow band of isolated to scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms was over southwest CWA early this morning
along and a Macomb to Springfield to Effingham. This convection was
tied closer to the 850 mb frontal boundary just sw of Lincoln, IL.
Much drier and more stable air has worked into northeast CWA with
dewpoints in the 30s from Lacon to Bloomington to Champaign and
Danville northeast, while dewpoints in the 50s from Galesburg to
Jacksonville west. HRRR and RAP models take this narrow band of
elevated convection ENE across central IL through mid morning and
diminishes ne of I-74 late this morning. Then isolated convection to
develop in sw CWA later this afternoon closer to frontal boundary
over sw IL. Cooler highs today range from mid 60s to lower 70s with
coolest readings by Danville and milder by Jacksonville sw and along
highway 50 in southeast IL. Southeast winds fairly light today near
10 mph or less.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT Sun May 8 2016

Unsettled weather pattern expected across central and southeast IL
through Wednesday evening, with another chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms Fri/Sat. SPC has marginal risk across area later
Monday afternoon and Monday evening and from I-72 south on Tuesday
afternoon/evening for strong winds and hail. Temperatures to
gradually warm next few days, peaking in the lower 80s on Wed and
then turning cooler late this weekend and especially next
weekend.

00Z forecast models take fairly strong surface low pressure into
central Nebraska by 12Z/Mon and brings a warm front ne toward
central IL, and lifts through central IL during Monday as low
pressure lifts northward. This will likely bring a period of showers
and thunderstorms to the area. SPC just has general risk of
thunderstorms tonight and Monday morning. Most unstable airmass is
in sw CWA later Monday afternoon until mid evening Monday where
CAPES reach 1000-1400 J/kg while bulk shear peaks from 30-40 kts. So
feel better risk of severe storms maybe in our SW CWA again.
Strongest bulk shear of 30-40 kts and highest CAPES of 1000-1800
J/kg are south of I-72 on Tue afternoon/evening where marginal risk
of severe storms continues. Highs Monday in low to mid 70s, then in
mid to upper 70s Tue and mostly lower 80s on Wed.

Cutoff low pressure over the Dakotas on Wed and brings a cold front
east across IL during Wed night to continue good chances of showers
and thunderstorms over central/se IL Wed afternoon and Wed night
along with warm summerlike conditions on Wed. Models have trended
drier on Thu behind the cold front with just slight chance of
showers in eastern IL Thu. Temps cool closer to normal ranging from
near 70F over the IL river valley and mid 70s in southeast IL with
similar temps on Friday. Have dry conditions Thu night and then
return chances of showers and thunderstorms by Friday afternoon and
Friday night as next weather system moves in from the northern
Plains. A deepening upper level low into the Great Lakes region late
this week into next week brings cooler temperatures in the 60s next
Sat/Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at the central Illinois terminals
through the afternoon before a warm front begins to lift northward
toward the area tonight. Models have been consistently showing
showers and thunderstorms developing north of the front across
Missouri later this afternoon, then spreading/developing
northeastward into central Illinois during the evening. Still some
discrepancies about how fast this process will unfold, but general
consensus brings scattered showers into KSPI by 02z...then further
north to KPIA by around 06z. Main forecast challenge will be
how low the ceilings will drop with the rain later tonight. HRRR
suggests only MVFR, while the NAM points to a more pessimistic IFR
forecast. Given increasing moisture along/north of the approaching
warm front, prefer lower ceilings. As such, have introduced IFR at
KSPI by 05z, then further north to KPIA by 10z. The rain/low
clouds will tend to lift north of the TAF sites by Monday morning,
so have raised ceilings to VFR and dropped predominant rain
mention after the 12-15z time frame.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barnes




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 211 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

SOME OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL GET A BIT OF A REPRIEVE FROM THE
RAIN TODAY...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SOUTHERN HALF WHICH WILL
HAVE A CHANCE DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS THIS FRONT PUSHES BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD BACK
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK. FURTHER
OUT...MEAN UPPER TROUGHING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 812 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
AREA THIS MORNING. PER HRRR SHOULD SEE THIS GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWERS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...AND INTO KENTUCKY AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
TODAY...SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH IT WILL
STAY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

TEMPS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S. TRENDED SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED TENNESSEE VALLEY COLD FRONT WILL START
MAKING ITS WAY BACK NORTH TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. AS A RESULT...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ECMWF SUGGESTS
GENERALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME PERIOD...WHILE COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW IS PLACE ALOFT...WITH A
GENERALLY TROUGH LIKE PATTERN. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES LOOK TO PUSH
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA WITHIN THIS FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE GOOD LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ARRIVE ON SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PERHAPS THE BEST LOOKING DRY DAY AT THIS POINT
APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE EXITS HAS JUST EXITED THE AREA THEN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THOUGH AS LOWER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
CYCLONIC AND YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING.

TEMPS LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AS EITHER
RAIN WILL BE EXPECTED WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PREDOMINATE OR COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING WHILE DRY NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
IS IN PLACE LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 081800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFT 10Z-12Z.

RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID REFRESH SUGGEST ONGOING RAINS ACROSS THE
TAF SITES WILL PUSH EAST 1-2 HOURS AFTER ISSUANCE. THUS HAVE
ENDING PRECIP MENTION RATHER QUICKLY AT MOST TAF SITES WITH THIS
ISSUANCE.

WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT.
WITH PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION...VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.

A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LIFT. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION. THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MVFR AS THESE FEATURES
ARRIVE...ALONG WITH A PREVAILING PERIOD OF SHRA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 126 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

SOME OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL GET A BIT OF A REPRIEVE FROM THE
RAIN TODAY...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SOUTHERN HALF WHICH WILL
HAVE A CHANCE DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS THIS FRONT PUSHES BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD BACK
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK. FURTHER
OUT...MEAN UPPER TROUGHING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 812 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
AREA THIS MORNING. PER HRRR SHOULD SEE THIS GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWERS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...AND INTO KENTUCKY AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
TODAY...SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH IT WILL
STAY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

TEMPS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S. TRENDED SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED TENNESSEE VALLEY COLD FRONT WILL START
MAKING ITS WAY BACK NORTH TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. AS A RESULT...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST BY NEXT SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WITH A
POSSIBLE LULL AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 081800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFT 10Z-12Z.

RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID REFRESH SUGGEST ONGOING RAINS ACROSS THE
TAF SITES WILL PUSH EAST 1-2 HOURS AFTER ISSUANCE. THUS HAVE
ENDING PRECIP MENTION RATHER QUICKLY AT MOST TAF SITES WITH THIS
ISSUANCE.

WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT.
WITH PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION...VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.

A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LIFT. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION. THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MVFR AS THESE FEATURES
ARRIVE...ALONG WITH A PREVAILING PERIOD OF SHRA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

 1224 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

Forecast for thunderstorms today, and their potential strength still
remains dependent on how convection evolves over the next several
hours.  Warm front has diffused a bit over north central Kansas,
where showers and isolated thunderstorms have continued in these
overnight hours, but boundary is generally north of I70.  Next upper
wave noted in WV imagery lifting out of north Central Oklahoma at
this hour, and is the next feature expected to redevelop convection
as it moves through in the morning into early afternoon hours.

Boundary layer remains capped and early convection is expected to be
elevated, with a lower end severe threat.  As afternoon progresses,
if atmosphere gets a chance to recover after the morning convection,
NAM suggests late afternoon/early evening storms would become
surface based with ample shear and instability to bring severe
storms. HRRR and others indicates storms forming along the dryline
in south central Kansas. Those storms would have the potential to
move into our western counties with a severe threat in the late
afternoon into evening hours, with all modes of severe weather
possible, including large hail, winds and isolated tornadoes
possible. This threat spreads east with time, with GFS spreading dry
slot back into the area from W to E overnight and ushering out most
of the storms by sunrise.  Will have to watch for locally heavy
rainfall also as flow becomes more aligned north to south and has
frontal boundary near our northern counties.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

On Monday a strong shortwave will round the base of the main trough
axis and lift out over KS during the day. At the surface the dry
line will set up across central KS and be the focus for storm
development once the cap breaks. Steep mid level lapse rates will
accompany the shortwave, which should support surface based cape
around 3000 j/kg. The main issue is that the deep layer shear is sub
marginal to support much organized severe convection. Given the high
instability though localized hail and damaging wind will be possible
in the afternoon and evening. The decrease in the instability during
the late evening should cause ongoing storms to weaken. The models
show that the kicker wave over the northern Rockies will absorb the
initial wave over the northern plains. This may keep the dry line
from progressing eastward much by Tuesday, although most locations
should remain dry with subsidence behind the wave. Despite that
model sounding show an uncapped environment on Tuesday afternoon the
lack of forcing for ascent should limit any activity. On Tuesday
night a cold front will push into KS as the main system tracks over
the northern plains. The models are fairly consistent with
developing elevated showers mainly across north central KS Wednesday
morning. The environment tries to keep some instability ahead of
this front therefore could not rule out a few storms as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving northeast over TAF
sites.  With the lighter precipitation, ceilings look to be staying
VFR so have kept this trend in the near term.  Expect these storms
to last through the early afternoon before another round moves in
later in the evening.  Expect conditions to deteriorate through
morning and have kept MVFR ceilings going through the morning.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Heller




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 324 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

SHOWERS WERE STILL PLENTIFUL GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NE
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED A WHILE
LONGER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA...AND WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PRECIP
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY
IN OUR NORTH FOR LATE THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

WEAKENING SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HAVE RAISED POPS FOR TODAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT STILL ONLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THROUGH THE MORNING AS EVEN THE
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DRIED UP. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...JUST ENTERING KENTUCKY. EARLIER A COUPLE OF
STORM CLUSTERS...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS...PASSED THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE LEFT STILL RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. WHILE THE SKIES ARE COVERED BY MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...THERE IS A LOWER BATCH JUST NORTH OF JKL SHOWING UP IN
SOME OF THE OBS AND AFFECTING THE TAFS THERE. ALSO...IN PLACES
THE CLOUDS ARE THIN ENOUGH THAT PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE MILD AND NOT TOO FAR FROM
60 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR REGARDLESS OF ELEVATION. DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKEWISE RUNNING ON THE MOIST SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 55 TO 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT EAST KENTUCKY
SQUEEZED BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOME RIDGING TO THE SOUTH TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE BROAD
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL START TO OPEN UP ALLOWING
ENERGY TO SPILL EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE RIDGE SLIPS PAST TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW CARRYING ESCAPING ENERGY PACKETS INTO OUR AREA...
THE STRONGEST OF THESE ARRIVING LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT WILL AGAIN FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND WITH PARTICULAR
FOCUS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY DESPITE THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA. A LACK
OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LIMITED SFC CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TO LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TODAY TO JUST SHOWERS...THANKS TO A CAP
BETWEEN 750 AND 800 MBS PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. A SMALL THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY RETURNS
NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
A RETURN TO OUR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NORM...
ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG. FOR MONDAY...WE WILL BE BACK
IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF A FAIRLY DEEP
SFC LOW THE WELL TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD
WITH SMALL TO MODERATE CAPES AND SUB ZERO LIS. ACCORDINGLY...
HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST
ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN
THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS TO MAKE THEM
ADHERE MORE TOWARD STANDARD DIURNAL PEAKS AND VALLEYS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AND
SMALL SCALE FEATURES THIS MORNING LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

ENERGY IS EJECTED OUT OF SOUTHWEST LOW WHICH TRACKS ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WINDOW. THE
CORE OF THE PARENT LOW MAKES IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE
PHASING WITH ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA...BC. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION AND GRADUALLY SHEARS OUT BY LATE WED. THEREAFTER
THE LARGER PHASED SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES AFFECTING
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE FIRST SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SECOND DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SATURDAY.

AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE COMMONWEALTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SOUTHWEST TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST OF TWO AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL THEN PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AS A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER...SECOND BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND
IMPULSE WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS OUR AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT BEST
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES AND SFC
BOUNDARIES...GENERALLY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AFTER PASSAGE
OF THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT DAILY HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL EVEN
CLIMB TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK. DAILY HIGHS DROP BACK DOWN INTO
THE 60S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

LOCALIZED MVFR VSBY WAS PRESENT IN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...
CONDITIONS WERE VFR. THE SHOWERS WERE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST...
AND WILL LEAVE VFR EVERYWHERE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING. A FEW
MORE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING...BUT ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM THEM SHOULD BE LOCALIZED
AND SHORT-LIVED. OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG
AROUND DAWN...NO OTHER WEATHER RESTRICTIONS AREA EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 1226 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

SHOWERS WERE STILL PLENTIFUL GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NE
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED A WHILE
LONGER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA...AND WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PRECIP
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY
IN OUR NORTH FOR LATE THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

WEAKENING SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HAVE RAISED POPS FOR TODAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT STILL ONLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THROUGH THE MORNING AS EVEN THE
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DRIED UP. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...JUST ENTERING KENTUCKY. EARLIER A COUPLE OF
STORM CLUSTERS...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS...PASSED THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE LEFT STILL RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. WHILE THE SKIES ARE COVERED BY MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...THERE IS A LOWER BATCH JUST NORTH OF JKL SHOWING UP IN
SOME OF THE OBS AND AFFECTING THE TAFS THERE. ALSO...IN PLACES
THE CLOUDS ARE THIN ENOUGH THAT PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE MILD AND NOT TOO FAR FROM
60 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR REGARDLESS OF ELEVATION. DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKEWISE RUNNING ON THE MOIST SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 55 TO 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT EAST KENTUCKY
SQUEEZED BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOME RIDGING TO THE SOUTH TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE BROAD
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL START TO OPEN UP ALLOWING
ENERGY TO SPILL EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE RIDGE SLIPS PAST TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW CARRYING ESCAPING ENERGY PACKETS INTO OUR AREA...
THE STRONGEST OF THESE ARRIVING LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT WILL AGAIN FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND WITH PARTICULAR
FOCUS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY DESPITE THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA. A LACK
OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LIMITED SFC CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TO LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TODAY TO JUST SHOWERS...THANKS TO A CAP
BETWEEN 750 AND 800 MBS PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. A SMALL THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY RETURNS
NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
A RETURN TO OUR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NORM...
ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG. FOR MONDAY...WE WILL BE BACK
IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF A FAIRLY DEEP
SFC LOW THE WELL TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD
WITH SMALL TO MODERATE CAPES AND SUB ZERO LIS. ACCORDINGLY...
HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST
ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN
THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS TO MAKE THEM
ADHERE MORE TOWARD STANDARD DIURNAL PEAKS AND VALLEYS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AND
SMALL SCALE FEATURES THIS MORNING LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

ENERGY IS EJECTED OUT OF SOUTHWEST LOW WHICH TRACKS ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WINDOW. THE
CORE OF THE PARENT LOW MAKES IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE
PHASING WITH ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA...BC. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION AND GRADUALLY SHEARS OUT BY LATE WED. THEREAFTER
THE LARGER PHASED SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES AFFECTING
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE FIRST SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SECOND DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SATURDAY.

AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE COMMONWEALTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SOUTHWEST TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST OF TWO AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL THEN PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AS A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER...SECOND BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND
IMPULSE WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS OUR AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT BEST
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES AND SFC
BOUNDARIES...GENERALLY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AFTER PASSAGE
OF THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT DAILY HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL EVEN
CLIMB TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK. DAILY HIGHS DROP BACK DOWN INTO
THE 60S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

A BAND OF LOW IFR OR LESS CIGS ALONG WITH POCKETS OF MVFR VIS WILL
DRY UP AND LIFT BY MID MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED THOUGH A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER EAST KENTUCKY.
WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY SOME MVFR VIS OR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY. THROUGH IT ALL...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 353 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CONFLUENT NW
FLOW ALF OVER THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO NEAR HUDSON BAY
AND AN UPR RDG EXTENDING FM THE NRN PLAINS THRU CENTRAL CANADA.
UNDER THIS CONFLUENT FLOW ALF...SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER FAR NW
ONTARIO IS EXTENDING A RDG AXIS TOWARD UPR MI. LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON
THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS UNDER THIS RDG AXIS IS RESULTING IN DRY WX
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DIURNAL CU. BUT INCOMING AIRMASS IS
QUITE DRY PER 12Z YPL RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS 0.22 INCH.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS WITH DRY HI PRES
FCST TO DOMINATE. WITH PERSISTENT DRYNESS BEFORE GREENUP...FIRE WX
ISSUES WL BE A CONCERN ON MON AFTN.

TNGT...EXPECT MOCLR SKIES WITH DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING...A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR A CHILLY OVERNGT. THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR OVER
THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA CLOSER TO WHERE THE HI PRES RDG IS FCST TO
BUILD AND BRING THE LIGHTEST WINDS. WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS IN THIS AREA. A LIGHT SE WIND OVER THE FAR W
UNDER A BIT SHARPER PRES GRADIENT ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE RDG AXIS
MAY LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP DROP THERE.

MON...HI PRES RDG AXIS WL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE ERN CWA. H85
TEMPS ARE FCST TO REBOUND TO BTWN ABOUT 4C OVER THE E TO NEAR 7C
OVER THE W...WHERE A STEADY SE FLOW IS FCST TO DOWNSLOPE. MAX TEMPS
IN THIS AREA WL AT LEAST APRCH 70. STEADIER SE WINDS IN THIS AREA WL
ALSO ACCENTUATE FIRE WX CONCERNS AS DAYTIME MIXING ALLOWS MIN RH TO
DIP TOWARD 20 TO 25 PCT. FORTUNATELY...THIS AREA WHERE THE SE WINDS
WL BE STRONGEST PICKED UP A BIT MORE RA ON FRI NGT. WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND E SHOULD BE LIGHTER AND LIMIT WILD FIRE POTENTIAL IN
THOSE AREAS DESPITE MORE RECENT DRYNESS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BRINGING A
WARMER AIRMASS INTO WED AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE W. HIGHS
TUE IN THE 60S AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORES INCREASE TO MID 60S
TO MID 70S ON WED. THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE TURNING COOLER AS
THAT UPPER LOW MOVES IN...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S SAT.

LOW RH VALUES WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
E...DOWN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT INTERIOR W...TUE AFTERNOON AS WINDS
GUST TO 20-25MPH. RH IMPROVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AREA SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP SW OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE WED. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING SOME PRECIP BRUSHING THE WI BORDER MON NIGHT INTO WED...BUT
JUST HOW FAR THE SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT INTO THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
WILL BE TRICKY. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW END AND CONFINED TO NEAR
THE WI BORDER THROUGH LATE WED. WED NIGHT AND THU LOOK TO SEE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SFC COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. ALTHOUGH THE GFS ONLY
HAVE SOME AREAS SEEING A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF...THE ECMWF HAS ALL
AREAS WITH AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH. FRI INTO SUN COULD HAVE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR INSIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIP AS
850MB TEMPS DROP TO OR BELOW -7C. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONG W WINDS OVER THE KEWEENAW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI...SO WILL BE
MONITORING THAT TOO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING.
SOME GUSTY WINDS AT SAW WL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND CLOSER APRCH OF SFC HI PRES RDG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS THRU TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES
BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL BECOME ENE UP 15 TO 25 KTS ON MON
AFTERNOON/NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS THE PRES GRADIENT ON
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HI PRES RIDGE SHARPENS AND TERRAIN
INFLUENCES FUNNEL THIS FLOW DOWN THE W END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE
HI SHIFTS TO THE E AND A LO PRES APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SW...THE
FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN THE S BY THU. WINDS DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. ONCE THE LO SHIFTS TO THE NE AND
INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS ON THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT TO
THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

 138 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...

STILL EXPECTING A SEASONABLY COOL AND BREEZY MOTHER`S DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL SHORT OF RED FLAG THRESHOLDS.

MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWED WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LAKE
HURON THROUGH THE TIP OF THE MITT. TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH TODAY AS
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OVERSPREADS REGION. MAY SUN ANGLE
AND WEAK CAA (WITH 850 MB TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 0C)
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP MIXING AND LOCALLY GUSTY NW BREEZES
TOPPING OUT AROUND 20 MPH. SIMILARLY, SUNSHINE AND MIXING WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 50S N/W AREAS AND LOW-MID 60S S/E AREAS
AS DEW POINTS FALL THROUGH THE 20S. MIN RH/S WILL LOCALLY FALL
TO 18-23% - PARTICULARLY ALONG/EAST OF US-127 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH
OF M-32 - THOUGH LIKELY EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

OTHERWISE, LINGERING MID CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
FADE. SOME HIGH BASE CU WILL CONTINUE TO FORM, ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE BIG LAKES ACROSS E UPPER AND NE LOWER. HRRR IS SUPPORTING
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LOWER AND
THE THUMB REGION. AT THIS TIME, DO NOT EXPECT ANY LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER OUR SE AREAS - BUT IF ANY FORM THIS IS MOST LIKELY AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND
FROST/FREEZE POSSIBILITIES FOR MONDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FROST FOR MONDAY MORNING

OVERVIEW...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE MOVING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING DOWN THE NW FLOW
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE OMEGA BLOCK HAS FALLEN APART
REPLACED BY A REX BLOCK IN THE WEST, AND A 500 MB LOW OVER JAMES
BAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS AFFECTING LOCATIONS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

TODAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION, LOOKED FOR ANALOGOUS
TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY WITH THE PATTERN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE AIR MASS OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES, IT LOOKS LIKE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE MODEL SOUNDING SHOW
PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN, ESPECIALLY AS IT GETS BREEZY AGAIN,
BUT NOT AS BREEZY AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. SO WILL EXPECT THAT WE AGAIN
WILL HAVE MIN RH VALUES OF BETWEEN 20-25% WITH SOME LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST INTO THE 15-20% RANGE WITH THE MIXING OVER
DRY SAND.

TONIGHT... WITH THE LOW DEWPOINTS, THE CLEAR SKIES, THE CALM WIND
AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 0C TO +1C OVER MOST OF THE AREA,
WILL EXPECT THAT WE WILL RADIATIONALLY COOL TO BELOW FREEZING. WITH
THE FROST/FREEZE SERVICE STARTING UP ON MONDAY, WILL INTRODUCE FROST
INTO THE GRIDS FOR MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY
START COMING BACK UP BEFORE SUNRISE, SO WILL GO WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND FREEZING TO THE MID 30S THAT WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT
WARM AS WE GET CLOSER TO 00Z. WILL PUT PATCHY FROST IN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE WINDS AND THE HOW
LONG WE ACTUALLY ARE ABLE TO GET FROST TO FORM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

LONG TERM (MONDAY AND TUESDAY)

IMPACTS: COLD MONDAY OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET INTO FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: HEIGHT RISES WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF CUTOFF LOW OVER
NE/IA. THE BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MOST OF SUNDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE PAC NW SUNDAY NIGHT...CATCHING UP TO AND
PHASING WITH THE CUTOFF OVER THE PLAINS GOING INTO MID-WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN OCCLUDING SFC LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION MID-WEEK. THE PHASED LOWS WILL TRACK MORE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...DEEPENING ANOTHER SFC LOW ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER WHICH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...BUT DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE ON THE HEELS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED
LOW.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
WITH FROST ADVISORY CONCERNS. NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER: A RATHER DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY. ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS WILL LESSEN HOWEVER...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVERHEAD WILL LIGHTEN WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL GET
A BIT WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS THE HIGH HELPS TO SHUNT THE COLDER AIR
TO THE EAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH
BRINGS THE FIRST CHALLENGE OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...AIR MASS IS VERY
DRY...AND WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH MAY BRING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AND PUT SOME AREAS INTO FROST ADVISORY
TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING IN TUESDAY MORNING...AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD REALLY AFFECT JUST
HOW LOW TEMPS GET. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR CLOUDS TO BUILD SW TO
NE THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER IT WILL BE LATE MORNING FOR MOST BUT
THE FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THAT SAID...IF THINGS SPEED UP AND
CLOUDS GET IN EARLIER THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
ADVISORY LEVELS. BUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS FOR LATER CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AND LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. THIS MOISTURE ARRIVAL TIES
RIGHT INTO THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE...IF AND WHEN RAIN MIGHT
ARRIVE.

A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OCCLUDING LOW
MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS LOOKS TO BE INTO SW MI BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A
BAND OF ENHANCED VORTICITY ORIENTED NW TO SE THOUGH THE STATE IS
JUST CLIPPING THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA AND THROUGH GLADWIN COUNTY.
COMBINED WITH WAA ALONG THE FRONT...THERE IS SOME WEAK QG ASCENT IN
THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO SEE SHOWERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM LEELANAU TO ARENAC. WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH IF IT DOES ARRIVE.

EXTENDED... (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WITH PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE OCCLUDING LOW DWINDLING...THE NEXT GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE ALONG A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
ATTACHED TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CANADA. THINGS
ALSO GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW...WITH
SOME COLD H8 AIR OVERHEAD. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE...BUT IT
IS ON THE EDGE OF SUPPORTING SOME (I DON/T WANT TO SAY IT) LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT OVER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD
AIR IN THESE SITUATIONS LATELY...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. A BIT OF TRIVIA...THE LATEST MEASURABLE SNOW FOR
GAYLORD ON RECORD IS MAY 17...THERE WAS 1.5 INCHES IN 1956.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

VFR THRU MONDAY. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...N/NW BREEZES BEHIND A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
PRESENTLY OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES BUILDS EWD ACROSS MICHIGAN. SCT
TO BKN HIGH BASED CU /BASES 6-8 KFT/ OVER NE LOWER MI WILL ALSO
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A BUBBLE HIGH DROPS INTO THE REGION
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP, AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL KICK UP NEAR
WHITEFISH BAY AND THE ST. MARY`S RIVER. AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING
THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF AND REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BBS
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...MAYHEW
AVIATION...BBS
MARINE...JSL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

 1243 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016


.AVIATION...

DRY LOW LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AS SCT-BKN 8-10KFT DECK
SWEEPS OVER AREA WITHIN AREA OF JET SUPPORT ASSOICATED WITH DECENT
SHORTWAVE SKIRTING THE AREA TO THE NORTH. WNW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20
KNOTS OR SO AT TIMES IN BEST MIXING 18Z-23Z...BUT BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE QUICKLY THIS EVENING. FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY MONDAY MORNING
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...AT THIS TIME...IT DOES APPEAR
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TROUBLE WORKING NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN AND OHIO
STATE LINE GIVEN DRY AIR IN PLACE AND ONLY WEAK FORCING AS MAIN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR DTW...NONE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 403 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

DISCUSSION...

A MIDLEVEL TROUGH/ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LOWER PENINSULA THIS MORNING. A SHEARED BUT DISTINCT SHORTWAVE WILL
SHUTTLE ALONG THE WESTERN OUTER WALL TO THIS COLD POOL TRACKING
DIRECTLY THROUGH THE SAGINAW BAY REGION AND THUMB. LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY NOW OCCURRING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE CENTRAL UPPER
PENINSULA IS BEING FORCED BY DCVA DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
WHILE NOT AT A WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...MODEL DATA THE PAST 24 TO 36
HOURS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING THIS SOLUTION. THIS
LENDS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT ISO-SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BOTH THE WRF-NMM AND THE HRRR HAVE BEEN THE
MOST CONSISTENT WITH TIMING BETWEEN 15-22Z. WHILE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE THUMB COUNTIES...IN-HOUSE DIAGNOSTIC TR-
ISENTROPIC FIELDS SHOW A COMPACT REGION OF HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT/SATURATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME PASSING SPRINKLES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. FOR THIS ISSUANCE DID TRIM AND REFINE THE LOW
CHANCE POPS TO THE THUMB...WITH INTRODUCING CHANCE OF SPRINKLE
MENTION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AMOUNTS...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME LIGHT IMPACTS TO PUBLIC INTERESTS.

CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL ALLOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD AGGRESSIVELY INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. LAKE INFLUENCE AND A LOW SFC DEWPOINT AIR MASS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICK THIS EVENING WITH MIDDLE 30S POSSIBLE IN
THE THUMB. FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST HIGH ENOUGH
TO LIMIT MUCH FROST WORDING FOR THE EASTERN THUMB. THIS COULD CHANGE
WITH A BETTER LOOK AT AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S.

STABLE SPRING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF PICTURE
PERFECT WEATHER TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FOR MONDAY. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY TRAJECTORY WHICH SHOULD KEEP
SOME CHILL IN THE AIR. TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN
THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS..50S IN THE THUMB.

THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE FOR THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEATHER DURING THE
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WILL BE THE UNWINDING OF THE OLD SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES CUTOFF LOW AND THE PERSISTENCE OF A BLOCKING PATTERN
OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. EACH SUCCESSIVE ITERATION OF THE NWP
SUITE AS BEEN ADVERTISING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THIS MIDWEEK
PATTERN WILL PLAY OUT. SOLUTIONS A DAY OR SO AGO WERE SUGGESTING
SOME STALLING OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...RUNS TONIGHT
ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT AT LEAST A PORTION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL NOW BE ALLOWED TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD. GIVEN THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN THE SOLUTIONS CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW IN EXACT
RAIN CHANCE TIMING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THERE IS A FEAR THAT
THIS MIDWEEK PERIOD IS RIPE FOR OVERFORECASTING AND BROADBRUSHING
TOO MUCH POPS AND HAVE MADE A CONCERTED EFFORT TO LIMIT THIS. WILL
COMMUNICATE THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN INCREASING SIGNAL AGAIN THAT
A REASONABLE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE
MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION THAT WILL EXIST OVER THE CWA. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL LIKELY REMAIN A CONCERN RIGHT UP TO THE EVENT...SO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. TRANSPARENCY TO THE CLOUD EARLY IN
THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER
60S.

MARINE...

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER LAKE HURON THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...PERSISTING ON
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH WILL BRING NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT MAINLY JUST ACROSS
LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST CLAIR AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER LAKE HURON.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ELKO NV

 253 PM PDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS BRINGS NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AND END OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT BRINGS IN DRIER BUT
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND STARTS
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE
40S...EVEN RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S AT SOME SPOTS (KEKO KWMC).
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL EAST OF NORTHERN NEVADA...BUT
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE AROUND BROAD CLOSED LOW AND AFFECT
THE REGION. RAP MODEL SHOWING SOME DECENT SURFACE BASED CAPE
VALUES THAT EXCEED 1000 J/KG...BUT NOT MUCH SHEAR. A WEAK
DEFORMATION ZONE STILL CUTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA IN A NORTH TO
SOUTH ORIENTATION (POSITIONED NEAR HIGHWAY 95)...COINCIDING WHERE
THE BEST CAPE EXISTS. PULSE TYPE STORMS EXPECTED THAT COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL
BUT NO LONG LIVED CELLS ARE EXPECTED. LATER THIS EVENING...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TAKES HOLD AND THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY END CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS. SHOWERS MAY LAST TOWARD MIDNIGHT IN WHITE PINE COUNTY AND
ELY VICINITY...BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATE ELSEWHERE.

NEXT TROUGH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON COAST DIGS
TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY. GRADIENT FLOW TIGHTENS
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...
PUSHING LINGERING MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM. WINDS INCREASE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS LIKE ELKO COUNTY. A COLD
FRONT DRAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT GUSTS TO
25-35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST WIND OCCURRING LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SHEAR AXIS CUTS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NEVADA BUT
SURFACE DEW POINTS AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE NAM MODEL SHOWS SOME LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN (JARBIDGE WILDERNESS) OF NE NEVADA. THE
REMAINING AREAS WILL STAY DRY.

REGARDING TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MANY VALLEYS WILL
BE NEAR FREEZING. LEANED TOWARD THE NON BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
GIVEN THE MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS WITHIN THE AIR MASS CHANGE...AND
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM WITH
RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE RIDGE BUILDING FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME BREEZINESS BUT NOT
BAD AND THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES SEEN IN THE CENTRAL. MODELS THEN SHOW SOME
KIND OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL
DEPRESS THE RIDGE. SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN QUIET.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE TAF SITES...WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN DIMINISHING TOWARDS MORNING TOMORROW. BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

88/86/86




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

 238 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SUPPORT FAIR
SUNNY WEATHER FOR THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DAY TO DAY
WARMING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A WAVE PUSHING THROUGH MICHIGAN/ONTARIO AT
THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO MOVING INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER IS BEING FORCED DIRECTLY
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. WHILE NOT AT A WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...LATEST
MODEL DATA HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING THIS SOLUTION.
THIS LENDS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. BOTH THE
4KM NAM AND HRRR HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH TIMING THROUGH
04Z.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT TOWARDS OUR
REGION LATER TONIGHT. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE APPROACHING SURFACE
HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY DRY AIR AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION TO PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES. IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN
RECENT NIGHTS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 ALONG THE
LAKE SHORES TO THE MID 30S IN THE SRN TIER VALLEYS AND ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

STABLE SPRING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DAY OF AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES PERHAPS A TOUCH WARMER THAN TODAY WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BUT COOLER FOR THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS...OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS...WILL BE SEPARATED BY A RIDGE OF HIGHER
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO DIVIDE TO TWO REGIONS OF LOW PRESSURE AND
WILL MAINTAIN BENIGN AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND LAKE ERIE BASIN WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA STAYING FREE OF RAIN FOR THE DURATION.

DURING THIS PERIOD...BURGEONING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING INITIALLY
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE ON MONDAY...WITH ITS CORE THEN STRENGTHENING
AND SETTLING ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
ALOFT...ITS PARENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR AND COOL INITIAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE 30S ON MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FROST AWAY FROM THE LAKES.
NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE WITH 850MB TEMPS TO +7C WILL BOOST THE HIGH
TEMPS TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPS REACHING +10C ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE FULL SUN WILL RAISE TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATER ON IN THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN SWINGING THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
BETWEEN LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
JUNCTURE...THIS FEATURE STILL APPEARS IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AS IT PASSES THROUGH...ALONG WITH THE
CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL GIVEN BOTH ITS ATTENDANT
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF DRIER WEATHER
ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ITS PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND
DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO OUR REGION...WHICH HAS BEEN COVERED IN THE FORECAST
WITH SOME BROADBRUSH SHOWER CHANCES.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A FAIRLY WARM DAY OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT AND A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMBINING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 70S AREAWIDE...WITH WARMER READINGS THAN THESE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY IF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MANAGES TO HOLD OFF
LONG ENOUGH. AFTER THAT...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL USHER IN A
STEADY COOLING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS
PULLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FRIDAY...AND THEN TO THE
55 TO 60 RANGE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH/ATTENDANT COOL
POOL SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
THE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DESPITE CONSIDERABLE 4-6K FOOT CU
BASES THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR...SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLIES WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NY NEARSHORE WATERS THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

WHILE THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH OF A
GRADIENT TO PRODUCE MODERATE WESTERLIES ON LAKE ONTARIO. NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THUS PERSIST ON LAKE ONTARIO INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 637 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. BETTER
RAIN CHANCES MATERIALIZE ON THURSDAY AS A FRONT DROPS INTO THE
AREA, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. DRIER AIR IS SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND AS IS A SLIGHT COOLDOWN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 640 PM SUNDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS AND CUT BACK ON AREAL
COVERAGE FOR AREAS WHERE WE DID HAVE POPS FOR THIS EVENING. COLUMN
JUST LOOKS TOO DRY FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO OCCUR AND LATEST
HI-RES MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NOTHING DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. HAVE
CHANGED WORDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM ISOLATED/SCATTERED TO
REFLECT INCREASED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE WILL DROP POPS COMPLETELY WITH NEXT UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE MAIN CONCERN/CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN MORE BULLISH AND CONVECTIVE CUMULUS
ARE UNDERWAY. SEEMS PROFILES NEED A LITTLE MORE PRIMING FROM MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SET TO ADVANCE INTO THE AREA. HAVE HELD POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS. SPC HAS PLACED THE NORTHERN
MOST AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK. BEYOND THIS ACTIVITY LATER
TONIGHT...ALL IS QUIET. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ONCE AGAIN WENT JUST
ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING OR WHAT CAN BE
INTERPRETED AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
FOR THE SHORT TERM. WITH PW VALUES HOVERING TOWARD ONE INCH AND
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL VELOCITIES...A DRY FORECAST IS IN
ORDER. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STILL ON THE WARM SIDE FOR MONDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD 90S. IT LOOKS LIKE JUST ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY TO COOL READINGS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL, TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THE BEACHES WILL
ENJOY A HEALTHY SEA BREEZE. THIS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST ON
THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTAINING SMALL SCALE IMPULSES. A COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. THURSDAY WILL TURN OUT A BIT
MORE CLOUDY AND WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THIS FRONT MAY MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME
SLIGHTLY BOLSTERED PVA ALOFT. THIS PERIOD NOW REPRESENTS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE LONG TERM BUT MAY ALSO LEAD TO A
POSSIBLY RAIN-FREE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONDITIONS WERE JUST TOO DRY THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION SO IT SHOULD BE A PRETTY QUIET NIGHT. MOISTURE PROFILES
DO NOT SUPPORT FOG...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG RIGHT
AT SUNRISE. MONDAY...SOME BROKEN JET CIRRUS IS FORECAST OVER MUCH
OF THE CWA. AGAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. WEST NORTHWEST
FLOW IS FORECAST...GUSTY AROUND MAX HEATING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED-FRI
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

RATHER ROUTINE OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL. A BACKDOOR FRONT
SHOULD`T MAKE ENOUGH PROGRESS SOUTH TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...GENERALLY STEADY STATE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE OVERNIGHT MONDAY VIA LOW LEVEL JETTING. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY ...WEST-EAST ELONGATED HIGH OFFSHORE WILL MAKE
FOR RATHER LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND WAVES WILL BE QUITE SMALL AND COEXIST WITH A MINOR ESE WELL
FOR A TOTAL DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 3 FT. THE HIGH MOVES
EASTWARD AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY BUT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ENTERS THE CAROLINAS. THESE TWO OFFSET EACH OTHER WITH RESPECT TO
THE GRADIENT LOCALLY AND EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COAST MUCH OF FRIDAY
VEERING FLOW TO WESTERLY AND SHAVING A FEW KNOTS OFF OF OVERALL
SPEEDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON AND WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. THE SOUTHERN BEACHES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ106-
     108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
MARINE...REK/MBB/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 620 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. BETTER
RAIN CHANCES MATERIALIZE ON THURSDAY AS A FRONT DROPS INTO THE
AREA, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. DRIER AIR IS SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND AS IS A SLIGHT COOLDOWN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
THE MAIN CONCERN/CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN MORE BULLISH AND
CONVECTIVE CUMULUS ARE UNDERWAY. SEEMS PROFILES NEED A LITTLE MORE
PRIMING FROM MID LEVEL MOISTURE SET TO ADVANCE INTO THE AREA. HAVE
HELD POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS. SPC HAS PLACED
THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK. BEYOND THIS ACTIVITY
LATER TONIGHT...ALL IS QUIET. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ONCE AGAIN WENT
JUST ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING OR WHAT CAN BE INTERPRETED AS
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WITH PW VALUES HOVERING TOWARD ONE INCH AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
VERTICAL VELOCITIES...A DRY FORECAST IS IN ORDER. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IS STILL ON THE WARM SIDE FOR MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 90S.
IT LOOKS LIKE JUST ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVES
ACROSS TUESDAY TO COOL READINGS EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY... A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE MINIMAL, TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THE BEACHES WILL ENJOY A
HEALTHY SEA BREEZE. THIS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTAINING SMALL SCALE IMPULSES. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DROP INTO
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. THURSDAY WILL TURN OUT A BIT MORE CLOUDY AND
WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THIS FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME SLIGHTLY BOLSTERED PVA
ALOFT. THIS PERIOD NOW REPRESENTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING
THE LONG TERM BUT MAY ALSO LEAD TO A POSSIBLY RAIN-FREE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONDITIONS WERE JUST TOO DRY THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION SO IT SHOULD BE A PRETTY QUIET NIGHT. MOISTURE PROFILES
DO NOT SUPPORT FOG...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG RIGHT
AT SUNRISE. MONDAY...SOME BROKEN JET CIRRUS IS FORECAST OVER MUCH
OF THE CWA. AGAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. WEST NORTHWEST
FLOW IS FORECAST...GUSTY AROUND MAX HEATING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED-FRI
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
RATHER ROUTINE OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL. A
BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD`T MAKE ENOUGH PROGRESS SOUTH TO HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
GENERALLY STEADY STATE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE OVERNIGHT MONDAY VIA LOW LEVEL JETTING. SEAS WILL BE
2-4 FEET.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...

WEST-EAST ELONGATED HIGH OFFSHORE WILL MAKE FOR RATHER LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVES WILL BE
QUITE SMALL AND COEXIST WITH A MINOR ESE WELL FOR A TOTAL DOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 3 FT. THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY BUT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE CAROLINAS.
THESE TWO OFFSET EACH OTHER WITH RESPECT TO THE GRADIENT LOCALLY AND
EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY
NEAR THE COAST MUCH OF FRIDAY VEERING FLOW TO WESTERLY AND SHAVING A
FEW KNOTS OFF OF OVERALL SPEEDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON AND WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. THE SOUTHERN BEACHES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR NCZ106-108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 254 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. BETTER
RAIN CHANCES MATERIALIZE ON THURSDAY AS A FRONT DROPS INTO THE
AREA, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. DRIER AIR IS SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND AS IS A SLIGHT COOLDOWN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
THE MAIN CONCERN/CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN MORE BULLISH AND
CONVECTIVE CUMULUS ARE UNDERWAY. SEEMS PROFILES NEED A LITTLE MORE
PRIMING FROM MID LEVEL MOISTURE SET TO ADVANCE INTO THE AREA. HAVE
HELD POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS. SPC HAS PLACED
THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK. BEYOND THIS ACTIVITY
LATER TONIGHT...ALL IS QUIET. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ONCE AGAIN WENT
JUST ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING OR WHAT CAN BE INTERPRETED AS
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WITH PW VALUES HOVERING TOWARD ONE INCH AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
VERTICAL VELOCITIES...A DRY FORECAST IS IN ORDER. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IS STILL ON THE WARM SIDE FOR MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 90S.
IT LOOKS LIKE JUST ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVES
ACROSS TUESDAY TO COOL READINGS EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY... A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE MINIMAL, TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THE BEACHES WILL ENJOY A
HEALTHY SEA BREEZE. THIS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTAINING SMALL SCALE IMPULSES. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DROP INTO
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. THURSDAY WILL TURN OUT A BIT MORE CLOUDY AND
WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THIS FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME SLIGHTLY BOLSTERED PVA
ALOFT. THIS PERIOD NOW REPRESENTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING
THE LONG TERM BUT MAY ALSO LEAD TO A POSSIBLY RAIN-FREE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THIS TAF CYCLE. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION 00Z-06Z MAY TOUCH OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TERMINALS. FOR NOW...THE
EXPECTED COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT ANY INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL LOCATION. 5SM IN HZ OR BR POSSIBLE 9Z-13Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED-FRI
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
RATHER ROUTINE OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL. A
BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD`T MAKE ENOUGH PROGRESS SOUTH TO HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
GENERALLY STEADY STATE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE OVERNIGHT MONDAY VIA LOW LEVEL JETTING. SEAS WILL BE
2-4 FEET.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...

WEST-EAST ELONGATED HIGH OFFSHORE WILL MAKE FOR RATHER LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVES WILL BE
QUITE SMALL AND COEXIST WITH A MINOR ESE WELL FOR A TOTAL DOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 3 FT. THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY BUT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE CAROLINAS.
THESE TWO OFFSET EACH OTHER WITH RESPECT TO THE GRADIENT LOCALLY AND
EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY
NEAR THE COAST MUCH OF FRIDAY VEERING FLOW TO WESTERLY AND SHAVING A
FEW KNOTS OFF OF OVERALL SPEEDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON AND WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. THE SOUTHERN BEACHES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR NCZ106-108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 144 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA
LATE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
THE NAM AND HRRR STILL SHOWING A LITTLE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA TODAY AND MAY ACTUALLY SNEAK INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. THE NW FLOW OF SAT BEGINS TO
TURN MORE ZONAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD KEEP ANY LARGE SCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FROM RIDING AS
FAR SOUTH AS OUR LATITUDE.

THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS TO CONSIDER IN DETERMINING THE RISK AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING THE MID-LEVEL CAP ERODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT THE
SAME TIME...LIFT WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE N AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT GAINS PROXIMITY. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES MAXIMIZE AROUND 800
J/KG. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PEAK NEAR 7 DEG C/KM. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 40 KT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT ONE AND A THIRD INCHES. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS LACKING WITH THE BRUNT OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINING
WELL N OF THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...WHICH WERE SHOWING THE
CONVECTION REMAINING TO OUR N...HAVE NOW COME A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS THIS CYCLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING FURTHER SOUTH AND AT LEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ONE-THIRD TO ONE-
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...IN THESE AREAS...WILL INCLUDE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS EVE. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVE...AND SKIES WILL TREND TOWARD CLEAR DURING
THE NIGHT.

RISING HEIGHTS AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL YIELD A WARM DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE REGION. AS YOU NEAR THE COAST...A PINNED
SEABREEZE SHOULD KEEP THE BEACHES FROM RISING ABOVE THE LOWER TO MID
80S. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MID AND UPPER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA MON. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WITH A WARM RIDGE ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
SUBSIDENCE. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM AIR THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS PERIOD. EARLY SUMMER-LIKE HEAT IS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 DEGREES. A PINNED SEABREEZE BOTH
DAYS...BUT ESPECIALLY MON...SHOULD KEEP THE BEACHES AND ADJACENT
COMMUNITIES COOLEST...MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT H5 AS THE
MORE DYNAMIC FEATURES IMPACT CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER STATES.
A FEW EMBEDDED IMPULSES COULD COME INTO PLAY BUT NOTHING EXPECTED
TO GENERATE ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WED-THU TIME FRAME. THE AIR-
MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY
COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS. INCREASING SUPPORT
ALOFT... AN APPROACHING FRONT...AND HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
DECIDED TO BUMP POPS UPWARD DURING FRIDAY. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION DURING SATURDAY AS MOISTURE POOLING OCCURS ONCE
AGAIN AHEAD OF ANOTHER BOUNDARY SLATED TO PASS THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE SECOND BOUNDARY ARRIVES THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE DISPLACED OFFSHORE KEEPING COVERAGE OF
ANY SHRA/TSRA ON THE LOWER END. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THOUGH COULD SEE A COOLER/DRIER AIR-
MASS MOVE INTO CAROLINAS JUST BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THIS TAF CYCLE. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION 00Z-06Z MAY TOUCH OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TERMINALS. FOR NOW...THE
EXPECTED COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT ANY INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL LOCATION. 5SM IN HZ OR BR POSSIBLE 9Z-13Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED-FRI
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:


A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
WATERS AND MAY SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING ON MON. W WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO SW BY/DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SW WINDS WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE FEAR
WATERS...THE DIRECTION MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR BRIEFLY E
OR NE TOWARD MORNING WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY. THE STRONGEST
WINDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH WANING
LOW-LEVEL NOCTURNAL JET. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 20 KT
EARLY...OTHERWISE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT THIS PERIOD. SEAS
WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME 5 FT SEAS WILL BE PRESENT
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS TONIGHT WILL
BE SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE MON
MORNING. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DOMINATE MON WITH THE WINDS BACKING TO
SSW DURING TUE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVE HOURS WITH SEABREEZE INFLUENCES KICKING UP WIND
SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH UP TO 4 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE WED-THU WITH
WEAK INLAND TROUGHING. AS A RESULT...A S-SW FETCH WILL PREVAIL
WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT OR LESS
EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MJC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY MONDAY.  A WARM FRONT
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CORRECTED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND
ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POP BACK INTO NWRN PA. SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY
MADE IT ONTO THE LAKE UPSTREAM FROM KERI AND LATEST HRRR ALSO
SUPPORTS A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE.

ORIGINAL...GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS A WEAK LOW NEAR SRN LAKE HURON WHICH IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BUT HAS STILL MANAGED
TO HELP GENERATE A HEALTHY CU FIELD ACROSS ERN LWR MI/SERN ONTARIO
AND WRN NY. THE LAKE HAS ACTED AS TO STABILIZE THE AREA WITH NO CU
OVER THE WATER OR INLAND NERN OHIO/NWRN PA. GIVEN THIS BELIEVE
POPS CAN BE REMOVED FROM NWRN PA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY BUT THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS THE PAST FEW HOURS IN THICKENING CIRRUS...LIKELY IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING JET STREAK ACROSS THE AREA. TRENDS WOULD
SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOWEVER AFTER
MIDNIGHT THIS JET STREAK BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST SO AM EXPECTING THIS
TO THIN. LATE TONIGHT HOWEVER...MODELS DEPICT MOISTURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTH TOWARD
THE AREA. MODELS HOWEVER ARE ALREADY STARTING TO DIVERGE WITH THE
GFS SHOWING MORE ADVANCEMENT VS THE NAM. WILL GO AHEAD AND BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING
AND PC/MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
TOWARD MORNING THAT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WORDING IN A COUPLE
COUNTIES. LOWS IN THE 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE...IN GENERAL...SIMILAR THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...THE DIFFERENCES THEY DO HAVE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON THE LOCAL FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY. THE NAM REMAINS LESS
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS IT NORTH MUCH QUICKER. AS A RESULT THE NAM GUIDANCE FOR
CLEVELAND MONDAY IS 67 PERCENT POPS WHILE THE NAM IS AT JUST 5
PERCENT. POPS AT TOLEDO JUST AS DIFFERENT GFS 805 VS NAM 10%. FOR
COMPARISON THE ECMWF STARTS OUT CLOSER TO THE NAM BUT BY 00Z
TUESDAY IS STARTING TO LOOK MORE LIKE THE GFS. WILL TAILOR THE
FORECAST IN THIS MANNER BUILDING POPS THROUGH THE CHANCE CATEGORY
SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH HIGHEST NUMBERS FAR
SOUTHWEST. WILL REACH A LOW CHANCE POP ALONG A KCLE-KYNG LINE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP KERI DRY. MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS
BEGINNING TO LINE UP BETTER WILL BRING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND LIKELY INTO THE FAR WEST. TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT MORE OF THE SAME WITH LIKELY POPS CARVING OUT A
LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
WILL FINALLY REACH THE AREA AND THEN MOVE NORTH. BY EVENING A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER BASED ON LI`S AND
CAPE...TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL MONDAY RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF MILD ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60/S AND LOW 70/S...BUT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO COOL
AND WET BEHIND A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA STARTING ON THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50/S.

THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDER. CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY. THE NEXT REINFORCING COLD FRONT...AT LEAST
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF...ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. ALL THE WHILE 850H TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US. THIS SCENARIO WILL COMBINE FOR A CHANCE
OF RAIN FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE SOMEWHAT
OPTIMISTIC. RAIN/CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY IN THE SNOWBELT WITH
LAKE INDUCED LAPSE RATES AROUND 12C. NOT UNTIL MIDWEEK DOES THE
AIRMASS LOOK TO MODERATE...SO UNTIL THEN...WET AND COOL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDS OVER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. SOME HIGH
20K FEET CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY 10K FEET CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAKE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THIS FEATURE COULD
BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER ERI...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ENOUGH COVERAGE TO JUSTIFY PUTTING VCSH IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT RIDGING WILL CLEAR
SKIES AND DECOUPLE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 10 PM
TONIGHT. THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE LAKE AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL OHIO. THE FRONT WILL EITHER
WEAKEN OR STALL ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO BEFORE THE WINDS REALLY HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME SOUTHERLY. EVENTUALLY THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WIND WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST KICKING UP WAVES IN THE EASTERN BASIN. THE
WEST WINDS WILL RELAX INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS Tulsa OK

 1220 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered light showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will
persist through 00z, though prevailing conditions should remain
VFR until late tonight. More widespread low ceilings appear likely
after 09z tonight with scattered thunderstorms likely impacting
eastern OK sites after 12z Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Lead shortwave impulse lifting northeast this morning through west
Texas, along east side of primary upper circulation just east of
Four Corners, has resulted in fairly widespread coverage of light
showers with some embedded elevated thunderstorms across central
and eastern OK. As this feature lifts northeast, would expect an
uptick in precip coverage to continue from eastern OK and
eventually into northwest AR by this afternoon. HRRR has been
consistent with this signal for several runs now. Little in the
way of severe weather potential with the elevated storms , though
some small hail possible in stronger cores. Updated forecast will
reflect higher precip chances in the first period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Strong and gusty south winds will develop today ahead of upper
wave. Could see a few isolated thunderstorms this morning or
early afternoon but overall coverage should be limited. Added a
PROB30 group for eastern OK TAF sites for any thunderstorms
activity moving in from the west late tonight. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Elevated scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Today
with the aid of isentropic lift and an upper level shortwave
moving out of Texas and across the area. This activity should
move into the area early to mid morning and exit late this
afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop
late this afternoon across far western Oklahoma in the vicinity
of the dryline and push off to the northeast. This activity may
move into portions of the area later this evening and overnight.
This activity will also be elevated in nature as it moves into the
region. Some of these storms could become strong to severe with
large hail the main concern.

Elevated showers and thunderstorms will again develop late tonight
and into Monday morning across the area as another upper level
shortwave moves across the area. The greatest risk for severe weather
across eastern Oklahoma and western arkansas will come late Monday
afternoon into Monday night as Thunderstorms Develop along the dryline
across central Oklahoma with the aid of a more significant upper level
shortwave and move into the region. There is expected to be enough
instability and deep layer shear to support severe thunderstorms.
Large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will also be possible with
this activity. The thunderstorm activity is expected to exit the region
late Monday night.

Tuesday is expected to be dry as the area will be between storm systems.
Tuesday will also be the hottest day of the week with high temperatures
expected to be in the 80s area-wide.

The chances of showers and thunderstorms return on Wednesday as an upper
level low moving out of the northern Rockies and across the plains pushes
a cold front through the region. After a dry day on Thursday, showers and
thunderstorms return to the forecast Friday into Saturday as another cold
front affects the region.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...14




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

 500 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED OVER NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL THEN DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM...SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE FRENCH
BROAD VALLEY...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN NC FOOTHILLS...AND INTO THE
SOUTHWEST NC PIEDMONT. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF CONGESTUS IN THIS
AREA...AND WE/VE SEEN A COUPLE OF SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS DEVELOP
RECENTLY. PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...MUCH OF THIS CU IS NEAR OR
ABOVE THE LFC (AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RAP SOUNDING FROM
THE KCLT AREA)...SO IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO REORIENT POPS TO FEATURE LOW
CHANCES IN THESE AREAS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE EASTERN SC PIEDMONT.
BASED UPON THE LACK OF AN APPRECIABLE CU FIELD...IT APPEARS CHANCES
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE SLIGHT AT BEST. PER
THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS...SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND 500
J/KG ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES...TO AROUND 1000 ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE CWA. WHILE THIS IS NOTHING OUTSTANDING...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
AROUND 40 KTS COULD ALLOW SOME STORMS TO ROTATE...POSSIBLY ENHANCING
UPDRAFT INTENSITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ONE OR TWO MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL REPORTS.

UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ALLOWING RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE STALLED BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE. 925MB FIELDS FROM NAM/GFS BOTH
INDICATE SOME UPGLIDE MAY DEVELOP OVER NC /MAINLY NORTH OF I-40/
IN THE WEE HRS OF THE MORNING AS THE TRANSITION OCCURS. THAT
POTENTIALLY COULD GENERATE SOME LOW STRATUS WHICH COULD LINGER
THRU THE MRNG AND IMPACT HIGH TEMPS...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES
LITTLE TO NOTHING THEREOF.  REGARDLESS OF WHAT MAY HAPPEN IN THE
LOW LEVELS...ALTOCU/CIRRUS INCREASE IN THE MRNG AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE. I/M LEANING IN FAVOR OF BLENDED
MOS MIN TEMPS.

WHILE UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ROBUST
MONDAY...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOST IF NOT ALL
CONVECTION. GUIDANCE MEMBERS THAT DO DEVELOP QPF DO SO ONLY OVER
THE NRN MTNS...AND SEEING THE SURPRISINGLY GOOD CONSENSUS I DID
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS THERE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO SUNDAY/S VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AS WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT. S TO SW LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND POCKETS
OF RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL FLOW OVER THE AREA AS WELL.
ALL THIS WILL LEAD TO SLOWLY INCREASING INSTABILITY AND FORCING EACH
DAY. THAT SAID...BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE..HAVE FOLLOWED THESE TRENDS FOR THE POP FORECAST.
INSTABILITY INCREASES TO MODERATE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
ON THAT DAY...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY ORGANIZATION WILL DEVELOP.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHILE
LOWS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...AN EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET
UP DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...RESULTING IN A COOLING TREND
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A REINFORCING STRONGER FRONT ON SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE IS NOT REALLY IMPRESSED WITH CAPE OR SHEAR WITH EITHER
FRONT. ALTHO...THERE SHOULD BE ENUF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR DECENT
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THURSDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IF
WE CAN MANAGE TO GET 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE COMBINED WITH SOME UPPER
SUPPORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE STORMS
THURSDAY. THE SECOND FRONT WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE...BUT STILL HAVE
A CHC POP FOR MAINLY THE NC MTNS ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL START OUT
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN TREND COOLER GRADUALLY
TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A BROAD FRONTAL ZONE IS MORE OR LESS
STALLED NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. FEW-SCT STRATOCU WILL BE SEEN
OVER THE NC SITES AS MOISTURE POOLS IN ITS VICINITY. A COUPLE OF
SHRA OR TSRA MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NEAR KHKY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. WIND GUSTS OF 40 KT OR MORE COULD RESULT NEAR ANY TSRA
HOWEVER. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY OVER THE AREA...WITH
SOME VARIATION ACROSS DUE W. NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL CLOSER TO THE
FRONT. THE FRONT MAY SAG SLIGHTLY FURTHER S TONIGHT AND THAT MAY
VEER WINDS TOWARD N OVER THE NC SITES BY EARLY MORNING...BUT MORE
LIKELY WINDS WILL BE CALM BY THAT TIME. AFTER DAYBREAK...THE FRONT
RETREATS NORTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS...AND
WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SW.

OUTLOOK...THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING. WARMING CONDITIONS AND RETURN SW FLOW ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDWEEK...A TYPICAL SPRINGTIME PATTERN. A FEW SHRA/TSRA
ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JDL/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

 1236 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

REMOVED POPS THIS MORNING AS ALL PRECIP IN THE CWA HAS DISSIPATED.
ADJUSTED AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS AS WELL BASED ON LATEST CONSSHORT
WHICH SLOWS DOWN NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM FAR E SD THROUGH N IA WILL QUICKLY
EXIT TO S IN THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND INCREASED DEW POINTS WILL BE...LIMITING FIRE CONCERNS.
ALSO FIRE WISE...SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE A MINOR NUISANCE...WITH VIS
EVEN AT RAP FALLING AS A RESULT. CONTINUED MENTION OF PATCHY SMOKE
IN THE FCST FOR ALL BUT THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA TODAY.

HIGHEST TEMPS THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S W TO THE LOW 70S E. MID 60S WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE LOWEST RH WILL AGAIN BE OVER NE SD AND W CENTRAL
MN...WITH MIN RH AGAIN AROUND 20 PERCENT. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY 10-
15MPH OR LESS. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN AS WE MOVE
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LINGERING SMOKE SHOULD EXIT NE THIS
EVENING AS PRECIP NEARS FROM THE SW.

WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL WAIT UNTIL MONDAY-
MONDAY NIGHT...WILL STILL HAVE SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THE SW CORNER
OF THE CWA FOR THE MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. TS POTENTIAL LOOKS
VERY LIMITED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

INCREASED RAINFALL SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
QPF 0.5-0.75IN OVER THE S TIER OF COUNTIES. ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF
THINGS...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS WILL FALL NE OF MBG. THIS WILL BE
WHILE THE SFC LOW OVER W KS MOVES OVER CENTRAL KS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH A PORTION OF THE LOW LIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL SD DURING
THE DAY...AND THE 500MB LOW OVER UT/CO/S WY MOVES OVERHEAD. SIMILAR
THINKING FOR MONDAY WITH MAINLY JUST EMBEDDED TS POTENTIAL. SE WINDS
AROUND 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE E HALF.

A REINFORCING 500MB LOW ACROSS W MT AT 00Z TUESDAY WILL CROSS E MT
AND INTO THE W DAKOTAS BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT PRECIP
WILL REMAIN INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN 24 HOURS FOR THE EXTENDED.

THE HIGHLIGHTS IN THE OUT PERIODS CONTINUE TO INCLUDE HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES RUNNING GENERALLY ABOUT A CATEGORY TO PERHAPS TWO
CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STILL SHOWING UP EARLIER IN THE PERIOD /TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/ BEFORE A DRIER-WEATHER-PRODUCING-UPPER-
LEVEL-FLOW-PATTERN SETS UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE
WEEKEND. 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS 925HPA THERMAL PROGS DIP
BELOW 0C FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST OUT OF THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ON STRONG WINDS MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK
SUGGESTS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE SEEING SOME
HIGHER END WIND ADVISORY /30 TO 40MPH/ TO PERHAPS LOWER END HIGH
WIND WARNING /35 TO 45MPH/ TYPE SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY BE RUNNING
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT...-SHRA/SHRA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION AND BEGIN AFFECTING TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. CIGS WILL LOWER INTO MVFR AND IFR AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE KPIR REGION INITIALLY LATE TONIGHT...THEN LOWER CIGS
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT/WISE
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TMT




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM

 249 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
AFTERNOON WINDS STAY BREEZY TO WINDY THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
SLACKEN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS DRY FOR ALL LOCATIONS UNTIL
LATE THURSDAY WHEN GULF MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE EAST TO BRING
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THOSE RAIN
AND STORMS CHANCES REPEAT FRIDAY AND NUDGE A BIT WEST TO INCLUDE
AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE MOISTURE SWEEPS OUT TO
THE EAST SATURDAY AS THE STRONG WEST WINDS RETURN. FOR THE WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SHARPLY WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR
EACH DAY AFTER MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATCHING SAT AND RADAR THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...AS THE LAST LOBE OF ENERGY AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOC
WITH THE CURRENT PASSING LARGE PAC LOW SWINGS NE OUT OF E AZ AND
ACROSS W NM. MODELS ALL SUGGEST SLIGHT INSTABILITY WITH 0 TO -1
LI`S AND VERY MINOR CAPES FOR THE NW AND W CENTRAL ZONES FROM 00Z
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. THUS WE KEEP LOW POPS IN THE N AND W ZONES FOR
THE FIRST PERIOD. THE ATMOSPHERE IS GOING TO HAVE TO BE VERY
OPPORTUNISTIC TO REALIZE ANY SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING
AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE DRY WITH ONLY ABOUT .35" PW...AND
WARM ALOFT. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS REALLY LIMIT THE
INSTABILITY...EVEN WITH THE DYNAMICS THAT FAVORS LIFT AND
TRIGGERS. RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS. THIS ALSO
INCREASES RISK FOR DRY LIGHTING...STRONG OUTFLOWS...BLDU. THE
BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM TONIGHT WILL BE DAMAGING OUTFLOW
WINDS WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVER 40 DEGREES.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE RETRACTED/EJECTED FAR ENOUGH
NORTH AND EAST TO END THE THREAT OF ANY STORMS OR SHOWERS. THIS
WILL BEGIN A PERIOD WHICH WILL EXTEND THROUGH MID-DAY THURSDAY OF
DRY WESTERLIES ACROSS THE CWFA. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FOR BOTH
MON AND TUE BUT MUCH LIGHTER THAN WINDY DAYS PAST. WITH THE LARGE
PAC LOW PULLING AWAY AND THE PATTERN FLATTENING OUT HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
WARMING. EACH DAY FROM MON INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE TEMPERATURE
SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. LOWLANDS
WILL SEE A STRETCH OF 90 MAX TEMPS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. WITH
DEEP DRY FLOW SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR...AND NO POPS/PCPN
EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER-LEVEL PAC TROUGH PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO FORM AND DROP SOUTH. THIS FEATURE BACKS SW INTO THE
REGION AND TURNS OUR WINDS E. WE WILL SEE AN INFLUX OF GULF
MOISTURE WORK INTO THE ZONES EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE FOR THU
AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RISE FROM THE TEENS INTO THE 40S.
AND KELP PROG PW`S JUMP FROM .25" TO .75". THIS MOISTURE WILL
PROVIDE FOR A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE ZONES EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE THU AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FRI. WITH
RIDGING ALOFT THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY TRIGGERS OR UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...SO STORM INITIATION WILL BE FROM SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...OROGRAPHIC LIFT...AND DAYTIME HEATING. THUS AFTN AND
EVE SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS IN THE 10-30% RANGES.

SATURDAY THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT TRANSLATES EAST OF THE REGION AND WE
COME BACK UNDER STRONGER W/SW WINDS. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL
BULLDOZE THE MOISTURE BACK EAST OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL END PCPN THREATS AND RETURN THE REGION TO DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...09/00Z-10/00Z.
P6SM FEW100-120 SCT150-200 THRU 12Z THEN SKC-FEW200. W TO SW WINDS
OF 15-20G30KTS WILL DECREASE BY 04Z TO AOB 12KTS EXCEPT AROUND KELP
WHERE WINDS WILL SLOW DOWN AFT 08Z. BETWEEN 15Z-18Z W TO SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND 20G30KTS.

26-GRZYWACZ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EXITING REGION BUT ANOTHER WILL PASS FURTHER TO
THE NORTH OVER THE COMING DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THRU TUE. SOME BORDERLINE CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED
OVER THE LOWLANDS EAST OF THE RIVER ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
LOWLANDS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

26-GRZYWACZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 56  83  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           52  81  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              49  80  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              49  82  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              36  59  41  64 /  10   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   46  81  50  85 /  20   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             41  73  44  77 /  20   0   0   0
DEMING                  47  79  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               44  80  47  84 /  10   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      56  82  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               49  82  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            53  85  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              52  78  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  54  84  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            52  82  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  81  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           45  81  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   46  83  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                49  82  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               52  81  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 41  69  45  75 /  10   0   0   0
MESCALERO               41  70  44  74 /  20   0   0   0
TIMBERON                39  67  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 38  73  40  77 /  20   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               46  78  49  82 /  20   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               47  82  50  85 /  10   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            35  73  38  77 /  20   0   0   0
HURLEY                  41  74  44  79 /  20   0   0   0
CLIFF                   38  78  41  82 /  20   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              36  75  38  79 /  20   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 43  77  45  80 /  20   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  46  80  49  84 /  10   0   0   0
HACHITA                 46  81  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          47  80  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              45  77  47  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/26



  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
334 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Dryline storms rapidly developing this afternoon across the
eastern Permian Basin and western Concho Valley. TTU WRF and the
latest HRRR showed this nicely, and indicate that the storms
should continue to increase in coverage through the evening hours,
with perhaps another round developing after 06Z as the cold front
plows into the area. Storms should shift east out of the area
after sunrise Monday as drier air works it way in from the west.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)

Upper level shortwave trough exits to the east and leaves dry
conditions for Monday Night. However, could see a few storms
develop across the far southeast counties on Tuesday and Tuesday
Night as the low level moisture returns just ahead of anotherweak
shortwave. Better coverage of storms possible Wednesday and
Thursday as a cold front moves into the area. Upper level ridge
tries to build into the Southern Rockies for the weekend,
producing northwest flow across the Southern Plains. Combine this
with a dryline from the Panhandle to the Permian Basin and this
sets the stage for more convection possible for next Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  63  86  59  94 /  60  10   0   0
San Angelo  64  89  58  93 /  50  10   0   5
Junction  66  91  61  92 /  40  10   5  20

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

07/07




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

 254 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE TODAY BUT ARE STARTING TO GET WITH
THE PROGRAM AS OF 20Z WITH SEVERAL TTU MESONET LOCATIONS NOW
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. WOULD
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET AS LOWER AND MID LEVEL
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MAKING GOOD
HEADWAY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. STILL THINK WE WILL SEE SOME
GUSTS IN THE 45-50 MPH RANGE AT MANY LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WIND ADVISORY THROUGH
01Z.

WINDS HAVE VEERED AND DEWPOINTS HAVE CRASHED AT MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE CWA...SAVE PERHAPS EXTREME EASTERN AREA. DESPITE
THIS...SUPER RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING A GROWING CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND WE MAY SEE A HIGH BASED STORM OR
TWO FORM FROM CHILDRESS DOWN TO ASPERMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR JUST EAST OF CWA WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE IS MAINTAINED. A DIFFERENT STORY MAY EXIST LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORT WAVE APPROCHES FROM
THE WEST AND HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR...YANKING DRYLINE WEST ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS TO THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. GFS AND HRRR SHOW
CONVECTION INITIATING AND/OR ADVECTING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
THIS EVENING WHILE TTU WRF KEEPS ACTIVITY JUST EAST OF STONEWALL
COUNTY. WHILE CLEAR FROM A SLAM DUNK SCENARIO...IF STORMS DO FIRE
THERE WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...CAPE AND SHEAR TO
RESULT IN SEVERE WIND/HAIL SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WE WILL BE
WATCHING FOR.

SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL BE THE
SAME OLD STORY WITH THE WIND AS LOW TO MID LEVEL GRADIENTS REMAIN
QUITE STOUT. WEST WINDS SHOULD CRANK BACK UP TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...IF NOT SOONER...COMPLETE
WITH PATCHY BLOWING DUST ON THE CAPROCK. JW

.LONG TERM...
GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY IS LEADING TO FEW CHANGES THIS THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA TUESDAY MAY BE
ABLE TO UNLOCK AIR MASS THAT IS PROGGED TO HAVE DEW POINTS NEAR 50
DEGREES. NOTHING SPECIAL THERE...BUT CERTAINLY WORTHY OF
CONTINUING THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE
WEEKEND. GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FCST AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...POSSIBLY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL INTERACTION...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF THAT SCENARIO SOME. SETUP
REMINISCENT OF A MID-SUMMER NORTHWEST FLOW SCENARIO. DEW POINTS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S POSSIBLY WITH A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW
SUGGESTS POPS OF 20-30 PCT STILL JUSTIFIED.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>043.

&&

$$

13/07




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.AVIATION...
PATCHY -RA WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA
THRU THIS EVENING. OTHER TSRA COULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR EARLY
THIS EVENING. HAVE VCSH AT ALL TAFS SITES THRU 03Z WITH TEMPOS OF
TSRA AT KDRT 21Z-01Z AND AT KSAT/KSSF 23Z-02Z. MIX OF MVFR/VFR
CIGS LIFTS TO MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING. PATCHES OF CIGS LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...HAVE NO
IFR MENTION AT TAF SITES DUE TO STRONGER LOWER LEVEL FLOW. CIGS
ERODE MONDAY TO VFR ALL AREAS BY AROUND MIDDAY. S TO SE WINDS 9 TO
15 KTS PREVAIL...EXCEPT BECOME W TO NW WESTERN AREAS ON MONDAY IN
THE WAKE OF DRYLINE PASSAGE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/

UPDATE...
WE JUST SENT AN UPDATE TO RE-TREND FORECAST VARIABLES THROUGH
00Z/7PM. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35. RECENT HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG TO LOW END
SEVERE STORMS JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA...AND A SECOND LINE OF
STORMS THAT WOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER SHOULD LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL
AREAS. THE HWO WAS UPDATED TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY OF THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE
ISOLATED...SO NO MENTION OUTSIDE OF THE HWO AND HERE.
OTHERWISE...EVERYTHING ELSE IN ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/

AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/

HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO OVERFORECAST THE RAINFALL INTENSITIES OF
THE EARLY MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION...BUT FORECAST PWAT VALUES
CONTINUE TO SOAR FOR LATER TODAY. THUS EXPECT SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION TO BEGIN AROUND MIDDAY AND IMPACT MAINLY THE I-35
TERMINAL SITES IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPO SHOWER
GROUPS AS CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING IS NOT QUITE THERE
YET GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE RAPID REFRESH MODELS. CIGS A
FEW HUNDRED FEET EITHER SIDE OF 2000 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
I-35 TERMINAL SITES WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE VFR SKIES WILL HOLD AT DRT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING. HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING AND A CONTINUED WEAK SIGNAL FOR
MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL HAVE THE LATER PERIODS WITH MORE
PESSIMISTIC SKIES FINISHING OUT THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS IFR
CIGS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AREA RADARS CONTINUE TO PICK UP LIGHT RETURNS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS IN PLACE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TO
OUR NORTHWEST AND THIS IS HELPING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. THE 00Z KDRT RAOB SHOWED
A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WHICH IS PREVENTING MUCH OF THE ELEVATED ACTIVITY FROM REACHING
THE GROUND. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARY AT
850 AND 700 MB WHICH SHOULD HELP FOCUS THE ACTIVITY. THIS FEATURE
CAN BE SEEN IN MODEL QPF FIELDS WITH A BAND OF FORECASTED RAINFALL
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS IS GENERALLY IN THE SAME LOCATION AS
THIS CONVERGENT ZONE. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...THE RAIN
WILL HAVE THE DRY AIRMASS TO OVERCOME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INITIALLY SHOW THE FAIRLY STOUT DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB...BUT BY
00Z THE SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY SATURATED WHICH WOULD THEN SUPPORT
THE RAINFALL REACHING THE SURFACE. WILL FORECAST A 40 POP FOR THE
HILL COUNTRY WHERE THE BEST ZONE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODEST AT BEST AND AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL FORCING IS EXPECTED JUST NORTH OF THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NORTH OF OUR
CWA BUT SOME ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE A BIT BETTER IN THIS REGION
AND THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM. THIS AREA IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH HAS SPED UP A
BIT. THE EASTWARD PUSH OF THE TROUGH WITH WEST WINDS FROM 500 DOWN
TO 850 MB SHOULD ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO SURGE EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. WITH THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...THE DRYLINE
SHOULD BE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AS IT MIXES EAST
DURING THE DAY. AT 18Z...CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DRYLINE
NEARING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND IT BEING EAST OF THERE BY 00Z. THIS
FEATURE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL
INITIALLY BE POOR DUE TO EXPECTED CAPE VALUES...BUT SOME BREAKS IN
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE. ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE BUT MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR REGARDING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. PW VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES WITH
A 1000-500 MB MEAN RH LESS THAN 40 PERCENT. HIGH-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AND WILL ONLY HAVE
POPS BETWEEN 20-40 PERCENT FOR THE EASTERN CWA. SPC HAS THIS AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH SLIGHT AND ENHANCED
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA WHERE THE BEST UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AND OUTSIDE OF A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY QUIET DAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WILL SHOW 20 POPS
FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHICH COULD HELP WITH THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

ON THURSDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED TO THE
WEST OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS THE GFS STALLS THE BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE ECMWF HAS IT IN OUR CWA. REGARDLESS OF THE
SCENARIO...THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ON FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
RAIN FREE. ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS
ON FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
TO MAINLY OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              80  68  89  70  93 /  40  30  20  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  80  68  88  70  92 /  40  30  20  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     81  68  89  68  93 /  40  30  20  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            79  67  88  68  92 /  40  30  20  -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           83  66  94  66  96 /  40  20  -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        79  67  87  70  93 /  40  30  20  -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             83  68  92  67  95 /  40  30  10   0  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        80  68  88  69  91 /  40  30  20  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   80  69  86  72  90 /  20  30  30  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       82  68  90  69  92 /  40  30  20  -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           83  69  91  69  95 /  40  30  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33