Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/07/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1046 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWER CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW
HEADS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:26 AM PDT THURSDAY...DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING
AS A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ADVECTS INLAND. MEANWHILE, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY REGION.
WITH THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY HAVE INCREASED COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LATEST
FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INLAND AREAS TODAY, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED
FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT OUT AND WILL MAKE NEEDED
ADJUSTMENTS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BLOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:43 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE RADAR IS
QUIET AT THIS HOUR BUT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION
WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES MILD IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
UPPER LOW WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST WILL HEAD TOWARDS POINT
CONCEPTION BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS DIFFLUENT REGION
ALOFT...INCREASING PVA AND SOME COLD AIR INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROMOTE SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST MESOSCALE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN SHOWERS STARTING TO FIRE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SAN BENITO AND SANTA CLARA COUNTY AND THEN ROTATING
OVER SOME OF THE MORE POPULATED SECTIONS AROUND THE BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. PIN-POINTING PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT BUT CONFIDENCE STARTING TO INCREASE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME
ACTION THIS AFTERNOON WHEN ALL THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE THRESHOLDS TO BE MET BUT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET BUT SHOWER THREAT
REMAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT AS THE
LOW SLOWLY DIVES SOUTHWARD.
CONTINUED COOL ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW HEADS TOWARDS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME STRATIFORM LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES NEED TO
STAY IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY BUT CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW FINALLY EJECTS.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD END BY SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING. THEN A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND DEVELOPS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. CHAOTIC
SKIES VISIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT CLOUD
DECKS RANGING FROM 1500-6000 FT BRINGING MIXED BAG OF VFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS. UNSTABLE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW IS ALSO BRINGING HIT OR MISS RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PREDOMINATELY THE NORTH AND EAST BAY... WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POPPING UP PREDOMINATELY AROUND THE EAST BAY
AND NAPA COUNTY SO FAR THIS MORN. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY... SO HAVE LEFT IN VCSH THROUGHOUT ALL TAFS.
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS BUT VCTS MAY BRING GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS. INTERMITTENT MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY BUT
WITH MARGINALLY RISING CIGS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...PREDOMINATELY VFR BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE
WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO 2500-3000 FT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY. VCSH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONSHORE WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... PREDOMINATELY VFR TODAY BECOMING MVFR TO
IFR OVERNIGHT. VCSH POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONSHORE WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS. UP VALLEY WINDS UP TO 15 KT FOR KSNS
EARLY TOMORROW.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:38 AM PDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA
WILL BRING MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF
PT REYES AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ELSEWHERE. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FROM SQUARED SEAS WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
932 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWER CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW
HEADS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:26 AM PDT THURSDAY...DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING
AS A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ADVECTS INLAND. MEANWHILE, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY REGION.
WITH THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY HAVE INCREASED COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LATEST
FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INLAND AREAS TODAY, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED
FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT OUT AND WILL MAKE NEEDED
ADJUSTMENTS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BLOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:43 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE RADAR IS
QUIET AT THIS HOUR BUT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION
WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES MILD IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
UPPER LOW WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST WILL HEAD TOWARDS POINT
CONCEPTION BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS DIFFLUENT REGION
ALOFT...INCREASING PVA AND SOME COLD AIR INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROMOTE SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST MESOSCALE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN SHOWERS STARTING TO FIRE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SAN BENITO AND SANTA CLARA COUNTY AND THEN ROTATING
OVER SOME OF THE MORE POPULATED SECTIONS AROUND THE BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. PIN-POINTING PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT BUT CONFIDENCE STARTING TO INCREASE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME
ACTION THIS AFTERNOON WHEN ALL THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE THRESHOLDS TO BE MET BUT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET BUT SHOWER THREAT
REMAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT AS THE
LOW SLOWLY DIVES SOUTHWARD.
CONTINUED COOL ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW HEADS TOWARDS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME STRATIFORM LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES NEED TO
STAY IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY BUT CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW FINALLY EJECTS.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD END BY SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING. THEN A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND DEVELOPS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 04:28 AM PDT THURSDAY...NEARBY UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THAT BEING
SAID...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXPECTING A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS
WITH CIGS GENERALLY 2-4K FT. ADDITIONALLY...NAILING DOWN PRECIP IS
TRICKY SO IT/S BEST COVERED BY VCSH. BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OVERALL CONF IS LOW.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS FOR THE MOST PART...BUT OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. VICINITY SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONF IS LOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN
AND MAY HIT 10 KT LATER TODAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...SIMILAR TO TERMINALS UP NORTH...MOSTLY VFR
AT THIS POINT...BUT MAY MIX WITH MVFR CIGS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:26 AM PDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
AREA WILL BRING MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE OUTER WATERS NORTH
OF PT REYES AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ELSEWHERE. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FROM SQUARED SEAS WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
432 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWER CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW
HEADS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:43 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE RADAR IS QUIET AT
THIS HOUR BUT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WITH EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES MILD IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. UPPER LOW
WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST WILL HEAD TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT...INCREASING
PVA AND SOME COLD AIR INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
LATEST MESOSCALE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
IN SHOWERS STARTING TO FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SAN BENITO
AND SANTA CLARA COUNTY AND THEN ROTATING OVER SOME OF THE MORE
POPULATED SECTIONS AROUND THE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. PIN-POINTING
PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN DIFFICULT BUT CONFIDENCE
STARTING TO INCREASE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME ACTION THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN ALL THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
THRESHOLDS TO BE MET BUT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
WITH SMALL HAIL...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET BUT SHOWER THREAT
REMAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT AS THE
LOW SLOWLY DIVES SOUTHWARD.
CONTINUED COOL ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW HEADS TOWARDS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME STRATIFORM LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES NEED TO
STAY IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY BUT CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW FINALLY EJECTS.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD END BY SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING. THEN A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND DEVELOPS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 04:28 AM PDT THURSDAY...NEARBY UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THAT BEING
SAID...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXPECTING A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS
WITH CIGS GENERALLY 2-4K FT. ADDITIONALLY...NAILING DOWN PRECIP IS
TRICKY SO IT/S BEST COVERED BY VCSH. BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OVERALL CONF IS LOW.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS FOR THE MOST PART...BUT OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. VICINITY SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONF IS LOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN
AND MAY HIT 10 KT LATER TODAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...SIMILAR TO TERMINALS UP NORTH...MOSTLY VFR
AT THIS POINT...BUT MAY MIX WITH MVFR CIGS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 02:49 AM PDT THURSDAY...A NEARBY STORM SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS
IN THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF PT REYES. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
343 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWER CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW
HEADS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:43 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE RADAR IS QUIET AT
THIS HOUR BUT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WITH EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES MILD IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. UPPER LOW
WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST WILL HEAD TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT...INCREASING
PVA AND SOME COLD AIR INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
LATEST MESOSCALE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
IN SHOWERS STARTING TO FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SAN BENITO
AND SANTA CLARA COUNTY AND THEN ROTATING OVER SOME OF THE MORE
POPULATED SECTIONS AROUND THE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. PIN-POINTING
PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN DIFFICULT BUT CONFIDENCE
STARTING TO INCREASE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME ACTION THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN ALL THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
THRESHOLDS TO BE MET BUT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
WITH SMALL HAIL...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET BUT SHOWER THREAT
REMAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT AS THE
LOW SLOWLY DIVES SOUTHWARD.
CONTINUED COOL ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW HEADS TOWARDS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME STRATIFORM LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES NEED TO
STAY IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY BUT CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW FINALLY EJECTS.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD END BY SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING. THEN A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND DEVELOPS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED
ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF KMRY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ACCORDING TO MOST
MODEL DATA...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW
UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY WHEN CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. UNTIL
THEN...MAIN CONCERN IS LOW CLOUDS. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AT MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.
WINDS LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AROUND 06Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE MODERATE. SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY 09Z AND
THEN PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF KMRY STARTING LATE MORNING THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS
MAINLY FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 02:49 AM PDT THURSDAY...A NEARBY STORM SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS
IN THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF PT REYES. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
932 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL BE
MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
* MORE RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
FOCUSED OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND
*/ DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...
DRY SLOT HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE STEADY RAINS FROM LAST EVENING. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE AN
INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE COUPLED WITH 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE MARITIMES
IS GENERATING A STIFF AND MOIST NE LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE REGION.
THIS IS RESULTING IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE. IN ADDITION...WITH OCEAN TEMPS ONLY IN THE M40S THIS
NE WIND TRAJECTORY WILL LIMIT HIGHS TODAY TO THE 40S...POSSIBLY
L50S ACROSS CT RVR VLY. IT WILL FEEL EVEN COOLER GIVEN THE NE
WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE. KEEP IN MIND THE
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH FOR EARLY MAY IS IN THE 60S.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND ACROSS FL WITH THE NOSE OF A 110KT JET STREAK OFF THE
COAST OF GA/SC. THIS JET IMPULSE INITIATES CYCLOGENESIS EARLY THIS
MORNING OFF THE CAROLINAS. NEW 00Z EC/UKMET/RGEM/ARW AND NMM HAVE
ALL TRENDED WEAKER/FLATTER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EAST OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THUS HAVE FOLLOWED A
NON-NAM SOLUTION HERE. THIS SCENARIO FOCUSES STEADY RAIN /PERHAPS
MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR AT TIME/ TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE
TODAY AND EVENING. FARTHER WEST THE RISK OF A STEADY/HEAVIER RAIN
DIMINISHES RAPIDLY. THEREFORE IT/S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE DAY
ACROSS RI/CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL JUST DEALS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WITH A DRYING TREND THEREAFTER.
NEVERTHELESS WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS A SHIFT OF 50-100
MILES WEST WOULD RESULT IN STEADY AND HEAVIER RAIN TRACKING NEAR
RI AND THE WORCESTER HILLS. 9Z HRRR HAS THE RAIN GETTING AS FAR W
AS THE 495 BELTWAY AND E WORCESTER METRO WHILE ALSO IMPACTING MUCH
OF RI AND SE CT.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS EASTERN MA AS 925 MB LOW LEVEL
NE JET INCREASES TO 35 TO 45 KT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG FORMING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT
AND MOIST NE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FRIDAY...
OTHER THAN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THE DAY SHOULD START OFF
MAINLY DRY. IN FACT SOME OF THE MODEL GUID SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET EARLY IN
THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW TRACKS FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE NJ COAST. THIS ADVECTS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF RAIN INTO CT AND WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA FRI AFTN. PRECIP MAY NOT REACH EASTERN MA UNTIL AFTER
DARK.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN MA AS EAST WINDS
INCREASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- DREARY WEATHER OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY
- COLD FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
- QUICK BLAST OF COLDER AIR MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
- POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU THE WEEK
*/ DISCUSSION...
TACKLING AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST APPROACH WITH A BROADER VIEW...BLOCKY
FLOW PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES WHILE SEEMINGLY TO SUBTLY SHIFT E OVER THE
COURSE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS. DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING IS PREFERRED OVER THE NE CONUS WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT S OF GREENLAND. PERHAPS A CONSEQUENCE OF POOR
FORECAST CONSENSUS OF THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA PATTERN...WHAT WAS
JUST A DAY OR TWO AGO A FORECAST OF DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S HAS BEEN COMPLETELY OBLITERATED INTO RENEWED PERIOD
OF DREARY WET WEATHER.
SO AN INITIAL WET AND DREARY PERIOD BENEATH A DYING LOW OCCLUSION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS ERODING INTO POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN / DRIZZLE AS DRIER AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM. TRICKY FORECAST
THAT WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. OVERALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WASH-OUT...PERHAPS THE SALVAGEABLE DAY
OF THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO THE DISMAL WEATHER CONCLUDING SUNDAY AS A
N-STREAM DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE BEST AND LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
SEE A QUICK BLAST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BREEZY W/NW FLOW.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST PERIOD
REMAINING BELOW-AVERAGE.
THEREAFTER A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. FROM AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH IT
WOULD APPEAR ENERGY OUT OF THE N-CENTRAL CONUS DEAMPLIFIES BENEATH A
MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN AND FAVORABLE RIDGING. BUT IN
EVALUATING DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...VARIANCE IS EVIDENT IN HANDLING
INDIVIDUAL WAVES THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE 05.0Z ECMWF
HIGHLIGHTING A MORE ROBUST N STREAM WAVE AROUND MIDWEEK. LEANING ON
AN ENSEMBLE-WEIGHTED FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARDS A FORECAST OF WAVE
ENERGY SWEEPING ALONG A STALLED W TO E FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE
C-CONUS AND STORMS DEVELOPING S OF GREENLAND. NO CERTAINTY ON THE
EXACT FRONTAL BOUNDARY / BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT A PROLONGED PERIOD
LOOKS PLAUSIBLE OF NUISANCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN UNDER BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WHICH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TOWARDS MID MAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME BREAKS IN-BETWEEN AND SUN-
SHINE...AND IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO MIX OUT AND H85
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND +10C WE COULD SEE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE 60S. AGAIN...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY INTO
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z UPDATE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...
-DZ INTO MIDDAY WITH IFR HOLDING E OF ORH TRANSITIONING TO -RA
WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY LOWERING AND VSBY IMPACTS. WHEREAS W...
CONDITIONS IMPROVING MVFR POSSIBLY LOW END VFR OVER THE CT RIVER
VALLEY WITH LITTLE RESTRICTION IN VSBY. BREEZY NE FLOW INCREASING
THROUGHOUT WITH 25 TO 35 KT GUSTS OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS
TOWARDS EVENING.
TONIGHT...
TRENDS OF MVFR W AND IFR-LIFR E CONTINUE. -RA OVER E/SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH 25 TO 35 KT NE WINDS CONTINUES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS CONCLUDING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.
FRIDAY...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IF EVER BRIEFLY. MVFR LIKELY. -RA DEVELOPING
LATE ALONG WITH NE WINDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE TAF. WILL BRING
RAIN IN ON 20Z AND KEEP CONDITIONS LOW PRIOR TOWARDS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...WILL KEEP -RA WEST. CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER
TODAY POTENTIALLY UP TO LOW END VFR.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW END VFR TO LIFR MIX WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS PER
SHRA/DZ/BR INITIALLY...IMPROVING THROUGH SATURDAY. E WINDS VEER S
WHILE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING TERMINALS SUNDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. POSSIBLE LLWS AND LIKELY -RA/RA IMPACTS
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT...BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W/NW AND ARE
IMMEDIATELY GUSTY WITH UP TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. IMPROVING VFR WHILE WINDS W/NW WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
7 AM UPDATE...
TODAY...
NE WINDS ALREADY GUSTING 25 TO 30 KTS. WILL INCREASE TO GALES INTO
BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. WARNINGS POSTED. RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBY ON THE WATERS. WAVES BUILDING 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS.
TONIGHT...
NE GALES CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY WINDS DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AT
TIMES.
FRIDAY...
LOW PRES MOVES UP THE COAST FROM THE MID ATLC TO NJ. THIS WILL
RESULT IN EAST WINDS INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ALONG WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE RI WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WET WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER E/NE FLOW WITH POTENTIAL
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS E WINDS VEER S ALLOWING WAVE ACTION TO DIMINISH. BUT SHORT
LIVED AS S WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY. GUSTS TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WAVES BUILDING
5 TO 7 FEET...BACKING W/NW WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT DIMINISHING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO
DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET BY THE END OF PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
930 AM UPDATE...
PRIOR FORECAST AND ADVISORY LOCATION LOOKS GOOD. HAVE ADJUSTED
SURGE AND SEAS UP A LITTLE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND HIGH
RESOLUTION WIND GUIDANCE. SURGE IS PRESENTLY RUNNING A LITTLE OVER
A FOOT AT BOSTON...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET HARBOR OR ABOUT A HALF
FOOT ABOVE BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. WOULD ANTICIPATE THE
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WHICH MAY STRENGTHEN A TAD THIS EVENING TO
RESULT IN A MODEST AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN SURGE. IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS...SUCH AS SCITUATE AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR...MAY APPROACH THE HIGH END OF MINOR IMPACTS FOR THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE. HAVE KEPT THE ESSEX COUNTY COASTLINE OUT OF
THE ADVISORY AREA FOR NOW BUT WILL REEVALUATE LATER TODAY. AT
LEAST POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI EVENING
DUE TO HIGH ASTRO TIDE AND PROBABLE SLOWNESS FOR THE SURGE TO
EVACUATE...BUT WE DO NOT THINK THIS WARRANTS A DOUBLE HEADLINE AT
THIS TIME.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.
ASTRO TIDE AT BOSTON IS 11.95 FT AT 10:55 PM. NE WINDS OF 25 TO 35
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE AROUND 1
FT. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WAVE ACTION ONTOP OF THE SURGE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COASTLINE FROM BOSTON SOUTHWARD THRU PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD BAY
AND NANTUCKET. RISK IS LOWER NORTH OF BOSTON BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO EVALUATE FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MAZ015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
715 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL BE
MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
* MORE RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
FOCUSED OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND
*/ DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...
DRY SLOT HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE STEADY RAINS FROM LAST EVENING. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE AN
INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE COUPLED WITH 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE MARITIMES
IS GENERATING A STIFF AND MOIST NE LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE REGION.
THIS IS RESULTING IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE. IN ADDITION...WITH OCEAN TEMPS ONLY IN THE M40S THIS
NE WIND TRAJECTORY WILL LIMIT HIGHS TODAY TO THE 40S...POSSIBLY
L50S ACROSS CT RVR VLY. IT WILL FEEL EVEN COOLER GIVEN THE NE
WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE. KEEP IN MIND THE
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH FOR EARLY MAY IS IN THE 60S.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND ACROSS FL WITH THE NOSE OF A 110KT JET STREAK OFF THE
COAST OF GA/SC. THIS JET IMPULSE INITIATES CYCLOGENESIS EARLY THIS
MORNING OFF THE CAROLINAS. NEW 00Z EC/UKMET/RGEM/ARW AND NMM HAVE
ALL TRENDED WEAKER/FLATTER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EAST OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THUS HAVE FOLLOWED A
NON-NAM SOLUTION HERE. THIS SCENARIO FOCUSES STEADY RAIN /PERHAPS
MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR AT TIME/ TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE
TODAY AND EVENING. FARTHER WEST THE RISK OF A STEADY/HEAVIER RAIN
DIMINISHES RAPIDLY. THEREFORE IT/S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE DAY
ACROSS RI/CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL JUST DEALS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WITH A DRYING TREND THEREAFTER.
NEVERTHELESS WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS A SHIFT OF 50-100
MILES WEST WOULD RESULT IN STEADY AND HEAVIER RAIN TRACKING NEAR
RI AND THE WORCESTER HILLS. 9Z HRRR HAS THE RAIN GETTING AS FAR W
AS THE 495 BELTWAY AND E WORCESTER METRO WHILE ALSO IMPACTING MUCH
OF RI AND SE CT.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS EASTERN MA AS 925 MB LOW LEVEL
NE JET INCREASES TO 35 TO 45 KT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG FORMING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT
AND MOIST NE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FRIDAY...
OTHER THAN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THE DAY SHOULD START OFF
MAINLY DRY. IN FACT SOME OF THE MODEL GUID SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET EARLY IN
THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW TRACKS FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE NJ COAST. THIS ADVECTS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF RAIN INTO CT AND WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA FRI AFTN. PRECIP MAY NOT REACH EASTERN MA UNTIL AFTER
DARK.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN MA AS EAST WINDS
INCREASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- DREARY WEATHER OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY
- COLD FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
- QUICK BLAST OF COLDER AIR MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
- POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU THE WEEK
*/ DISCUSSION...
TACKLING AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST APPROACH WITH A BROADER VIEW...BLOCKY
FLOW PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES WHILE SEEMINGLY TO SUBTLY SHIFT E OVER THE
COURSE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS. DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING IS PREFERRED OVER THE NE CONUS WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT S OF GREENLAND. PERHAPS A CONSEQUENCE OF POOR
FORECAST CONSENSUS OF THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA PATTERN...WHAT WAS
JUST A DAY OR TWO AGO A FORECAST OF DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S HAS BEEN COMPLETELY OBLITERATED INTO RENEWED PERIOD
OF DREARY WET WEATHER.
SO AN INITIAL WET AND DREARY PERIOD BENEATH A DYING LOW OCCLUSION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS ERODING INTO POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN / DRIZZLE AS DRIER AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM. TRICKY FORECAST
THAT WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. OVERALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WASH-OUT...PERHAPS THE SALVAGEABLE DAY
OF THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO THE DISMAL WEATHER CONCLUDING SUNDAY AS A
N-STREAM DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE BEST AND LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
SEE A QUICK BLAST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BREEZY W/NW FLOW.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST PERIOD
REMAINING BELOW-AVERAGE.
THEREAFTER A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. FROM AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH IT
WOULD APPEAR ENERGY OUT OF THE N-CENTRAL CONUS DEAMPLIFIES BENEATH A
MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN AND FAVORABLE RIDGING. BUT IN
EVALUATING DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...VARIANCE IS EVIDENT IN HANDLING
INDIVIDUAL WAVES THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE 05.0Z ECMWF
HIGHLIGHTING A MORE ROBUST N STREAM WAVE AROUND MIDWEEK. LEANING ON
AN ENSEMBLE-WEIGHTED FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARDS A FORECAST OF WAVE
ENERGY SWEEPING ALONG A STALLED W TO E FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE
C-CONUS AND STORMS DEVELOPING S OF GREENLAND. NO CERTAINTY ON THE
EXACT FRONTAL BOUNDARY / BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT A PROLONGED PERIOD
LOOKS PLAUSIBLE OF NUISANCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN UNDER BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WHICH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TOWARDS MID MAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME BREAKS IN-BETWEEN AND SUN-
SHINE...AND IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO MIX OUT AND H85
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND +10C WE COULD SEE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE 60S. AGAIN...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY INTO
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z UPDATE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...
-DZ INTO MIDDAY WITH IFR HOLDING E OF ORH TRANSITIONING TO -RA
WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY LOWERING AND VSBY IMPACTS. WHEREAS W...
CONDITIONS IMPROVING MVFR POSSIBLY LOW END VFR OVER THE CT RIVER
VALLEY WITH LITTLE RESTRICTION IN VSBY. BREEZY NE FLOW INCREASING
THROUGHOUT WITH 25 TO 35 KT GUSTS OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS
TOWARDS EVENING.
TONIGHT...
TRENDS OF MVFR W AND IFR-LIFR E CONTINUE. -RA OVER E/SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH 25 TO 35 KT NE WINDS CONTINUES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS CONCLUDING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.
FRIDAY...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IF EVER BRIEFLY. MVFR LIKELY. -RA DEVELOPING
LATE ALONG WITH NE WINDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE TAF. WILL BRING
RAIN IN ON 20Z AND KEEP CONDITIONS LOW PRIOR TOWARDS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...WILL KEEP -RA WEST. CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER
TODAY POTENTIALLY UP TO LOW END VFR.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW END VFR TO LIFR MIX WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS PER
SHRA/DZ/BR INITIALLY...IMPROVING THROUGH SATURDAY. E WINDS VEER S
WHILE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING TERMINALS SUNDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. POSSIBLE LLWS AND LIKELY -RA/RA IMPACTS
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT...BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W/NW AND ARE
IMMEDIATELY GUSTY WITH UP TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. IMPROVING VFR WHILE WINDS W/NW WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
7 AM UPDATE...
TODAY...
NE WINDS ALREADY GUSTING 25 TO 30 KTS. WILL INCREASE TO GALES INTO
BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. WARNINGS POSTED. RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBY ON THE WATERS. WAVES BUILDING 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS.
TONIGHT...
NE GALES CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY WINDS DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AT
TIMES.
FRIDAY...
LOW PRES MOVES UP THE COAST FROM THE MID ATLC TO NJ. THIS WILL
RESULT IN EAST WINDS INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ALONG WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE RI WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WET WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER E/NE FLOW WITH POTENTIAL
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS E WINDS VEER S ALLOWING WAVE ACTION TO DIMINISH. BUT SHORT
LIVED AS S WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY. GUSTS TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WAVES BUILDING
5 TO 7 FEET...BACKING W/NW WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT DIMINISHING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO
DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET BY THE END OF PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.
ASTRO TIDE AT BOSTON IS 11.95 FT AT 10:55 PM. NE WINDS OF 25 TO 35
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE AROUND 1
FT. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WAVE ACTION ONTOP OF THE SURGE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COASTLINE FROM BOSTON SOUTHWARD THRU PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD BAY
AND NANTUCKET. RISK IS LOWER NORTH OF BOSTON BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO EVALUATE FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MAZ015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
237.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
657 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN MEANDERS AND
WEAKENS AROUND THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT ACROSS OUR
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OTHERWISE A GENERALLY
RAINFREE DAY. HRRR IS FIRING UP SOME SHOWERS MIDDAY VCNTY DE BAY
AND THEN SE PA AND SNJ THIS AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS WELL BELOW AVG
REGARDING THIS OCCURRENCE. TEMPS NEARLY STEADY THROUGH SUNRISE
THEN ONLY SMALL RISES DURING THE DAY WITH COLD AIR UNDERRUNNING
NORTHEAST WIND ADVECTION FROM THE RESERVOIR OF COOLER WET BULBS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAX TEMPS MAYBE 15 BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NORTHEAST
WIND 20 TO 25 MPH DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.
FCST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM MOS. POPS...USED THE
HRRR TO KEEP THE MORNING-MIDDAY DRY (EXCEPTING SPOTTY DRIZZLE S
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA). CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON ALL
EXCEPT WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MIDDAY-THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
APPEARS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN INSTABILITY BURST WILL BE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
NEAR DELAWARE. THUNDER POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY NEAR DELAWARE.
SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WHERE THEY DO OCCUR THOUGH PWAT ONLY
INCREASES TO NEAR 1 INCH. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 MPH. POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED 15 PCT IN LATER FORECAST FOR
LATE TONIGHT.
330 AM FORECAST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS WITH THE POPS MODIFIED BY THE SREF PROBS. WPC QPF 00Z/5 QPF
GRIDS USED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CONTINUATION OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
FRIDAY, THEN THIS BREAKS DOWN DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS
CHANGE OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY, KICKING OUT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK. THIS INCOMING TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE THEN
ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT ALSO MOVING
THROUGH. THERE COULD BE SOME TRICKINESS THOUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS
INCOMING ENERGY SHEARS EASTWARD ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS OUR
AREA GETS INTO THE TRUE WARM SECTOR NEXT WEEK HOWEVER IT MAY BE
CLOSE ACROSS THE NORTH STARTING WEDNESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
APPROACH FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH TO
START FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTS NORTH AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
STRONG 500 MB JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW WITH
OUR AREA WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION FOR A TIME FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE
THEN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS,
WAVES OF STRONGER FORCING GENERALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 0.75-1.00 INCHES
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS THE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW ARRIVING. DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, THE PRESENCE OF THE 500 MB
JET STREAK AND A COLD CORE ALOFT /STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS ADDED FOR FRIDAY /PERHAPS SMALL HAIL
OCCURS WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDER/. WE THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THE STEADY RAIN AND TRANSITION TO SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED LOW SETTLES RIGHT OVER US AND THE STRONGER FORCING MAY
SHIFT WEST AND NORTH.
THE CLOSED LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE COLD CORE ALOFT STILL OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY, SOME SHOWERS
SHOULD STILL OCCUR. WE LOOK TO FINALLY LOSE THE ONSHORE FLOW
COMPONENT SATURDAY, THEREFORE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WHICH COULD PROVIDE A LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR SOME LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HELD OFF INTRODUCING A THUNDER MENTION
ATTM.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE DRIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY START TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AND WITH A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT, WE
INCREASED THE POPS TOWARD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS. THE GREATEST CHC
FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA,
THEREFORE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY EARLY ON. WHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, A
WARMER AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING BREEZE.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING FROM THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE DOWNSTREAM WAA. THIS WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH IT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR
NORTH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ENERGY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW MAY SHEAR EASTWARD INTO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THEREFORE THE WARM
FRONT MAY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES,
HOWEVER PLENTY OF WARMTH SHOULD BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT, A MUCH WARMER TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WEATHER. THE PRECIPITATION CHCS
ARE NOT ALL THAT CLEAR ATTM AS IT WILL DEPEND ON POTENTIAL SHEARING
ENERGY RUNNING EASTWARD AS THE WARM FRONTS NORTHWARD PROGRESS
SLOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...CIGS VARIABLE BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FT WITH POCKETS
OF 2-5MI DRIZZLE. BEST CHANCE IFR CONDS MAINLY VCNTY KPHL/KILG/KMIV/KACY.
NORTHEAST GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.
AFTER 12Z...ANY IFR CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND
3000 FT BY MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY TO VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD QUIT BY 16Z. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTY 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT I95 REGION EASTWARD AND LESS THAN
18 KT VCNTY KRDG AND KABE.
TONIGHT...VFR CIGS TO START BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DEGRADE TO MVFR
OR IFR IN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SOMETIME AFTER 03Z/6. NORTHEAST WIND...
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN
THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF RAIN FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES WITH THIS BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AT NIGHT, THEN A FEW SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY.
SOME SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AS SOME SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT, THEN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY,
BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25 TO 30
KT AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. SCA FOR LOWER DE BAY IS MARGINAL FOR A
FEW GUSTS 25 KT MIDDAY.
OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY BEFORE MEANDERING AND
DISSIPATING THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL ALLOW
FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATER IN THE DAY.
THE FLOW THEN DECREASES FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT THEN MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD GUST TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SEAS ON OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
INTO SATURDAY, THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS THE
WINDS LESSEN FOR A TIME AND TURN SOUTHERLY SATURDAY. THE SEAS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW 5 FEET SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MAXIMUM WEDNESDAY EVENING TIDES ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS WERE
WITHIN 1 INCH OF THE MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION FLOOD THRESHOLD WITH
SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 1.2 FEET.
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE
AT LEAST 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET FOR BOTH OF TODAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
AND ANOTHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING AT 330 AM. THOSE
VALUES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH
FRIDAY`S NEW MOON WILL RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS AT HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY THIS
THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS MORNINGS ADVISORY ALONG THE DE COAST WILL BE MARGINAL, SIMILAR
TO LAST EVENING. ALONG THE OCEANFRONT THE INCOMING WAVES WILL BE A
FOOT OR 2 HIGHER THAN THOSE OF LAST EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, THE DAY SHIFT MAY BE EXTENDING THE CF ADVISORY TO
THE TIDAL DE RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE COMMODORE BARRY BRIDGE INTO
THE EXTREME UPPER PART OF DE BAY (REEDY POINT LINK) FOR THE LATE
THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO THE ASTRONOMICAL
COMPONENT OF THE TIDES. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT NEED MUCH OF A
POSITIVE SURGE DEPARTURE ESPECIALLY WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
LEADING UP TO THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. AS A RESULT, MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
COAST AND UP DELAWARE BAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 658
SHORT TERM...DRAG 658
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 658
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 658
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...658
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
516 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN MEANDERS AND
WEAKENS AROUND THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT ACROSS OUR
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OTHERWISE A GENERALLY
RAINFREE DAY. HRRR IS FIRING UP SOME SHOWERS MIDDAY VCNTY DE BAY
AND THEN SE PA AND SNJ THIS AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG ON IF
THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN. TEMPS NEARLY STEADY THROUGH SUNRISE THEN
ONLY SMALL RISES DURING THE DAY WITH COLD AIR UNDERRUNNING NORTHEAST
WIND ADVECTION FROM THE RESERVOIR OF COOLER WET BULBS OVER NEW
ENGLAND. MAX TEMPS MAYBE 15 BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND 20
TO 25 MPH DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.
FCST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM MOS. POPS...USED THE
HRRR TO KEEP THE MORNING-MIDDAY DRY (EXCEPTING SPOTTY DRIZZLE S
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA). CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON ALL
EXCEPT WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MIDDAY-THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
APPEARS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN INSTABILITY BURST WILL BE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
NEAR DELAWARE. THUNDER POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY NEAR DELAWARE.
SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WHERE THEY DO OCCUR THOUGH PWAT ONLY
INCREASES TO NEAR 1 INCH. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 MPH. POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED 15 PCT IN LATER FORECAST FOR
LATE TONIGHT.
330 AM FORECAST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS WITH THE POPS MODIFIED BY THE SREF PROBS. WPC QPF 00Z/5 QPF
GRIDS USED.
AM AWARE WAS MUCH TOO HIGH ON POPS YDY DURING THE DAY KTTN SOUTHWEST
THROUGH PHL/ILG/ESN AND MISSED THE THUNDER COASTAL NJ/DE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CONTINUATION OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
FRIDAY, THEN THIS BREAKS DOWN DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS
CHANGE OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY, KICKING OUT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK. THIS INCOMING TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE THEN
ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT ALSO MOVING
THROUGH. THERE COULD BE SOME TRICKINESS THOUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS
INCOMING ENERGY SHEARS EASTWARD ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS OUR
AREA GETS INTO THE TRUE WARM SECTOR NEXT WEEK HOWEVER IT MAY BE
CLOSE ACROSS THE NORTH STARTING WEDNESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
APPROACH FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH TO
START FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTS NORTH AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
STRONG 500 MB JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW WITH
OUR AREA WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION FOR A TIME FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE
THEN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS,
WAVES OF STRONGER FORCING GENERALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 0.75-1.00 INCHES
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS THE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW ARRIVING. DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, THE PRESENCE OF THE 500 MB
JET STREAK AND A COLD CORE ALOFT /STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS ADDED FOR FRIDAY /PERHAPS SMALL HAIL
OCCURS WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDER/. WE THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THE STEADY RAIN AND TRANSITION TO SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED LOW SETTLES RIGHT OVER US AND THE STRONGER FORCING MAY
SHIFT WEST AND NORTH.
THE CLOSED LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE COLD CORE ALOFT STILL OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY, SOME SHOWERS
SHOULD STILL OCCUR. WE LOOK TO FINALLY LOSE THE ONSHORE FLOW
COMPONENT SATURDAY, THEREFORE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WHICH COULD PROVIDE A LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR SOME LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HELD OFF INTRODUCING A THUNDER MENTION
ATTM.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE DRIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY START TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AND WITH A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT, WE
INCREASED THE POPS TOWARD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS. THE GREATEST CHC
FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA,
THEREFORE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY EARLY ON. WHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, A
WARMER AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING BREEZE.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING FROM THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE DOWNSTREAM WAA. THIS WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH IT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR
NORTH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ENERGY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW MAY SHEAR EASTWARD INTO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THEREFORE THE WARM
FRONT MAY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES,
HOWEVER PLENTY OF WARMTH SHOULD BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT, A MUCH WARMER TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WEATHER. THE PRECIPITATION CHCS
ARE NOT ALL THAT CLEAR ATTM AS IT WILL DEPEND ON POTENTIAL SHEARING
ENERGY RUNNING EASTWARD AS THE WARM FRONTS NORTHWARD PROGRESS
SLOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...CIGS VARIABLE BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FT WITH POCKETS
OF 2MI DRIZZLE. IFR CONDS MAINLY VCNTY KPHL/KILG/KMIV/KACY.
NORTHEAST GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.
AFTER 12Z...CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FT BY
MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY TO VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING
DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD QUIT BY 14Z. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTY
20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT I95 REGION EASTWARD AND LESS THAN 18 KT VCNTY
KRDG AND KABE.
TONIGHT...VFR CIGS TO START BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DEGRADE TO MVFR
OR IFR IN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SOMETIME AFTER 03Z/6. NORTHEAST WIND...
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN
THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF RAIN FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES WITH THIS BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AT NIGHT, THEN A FEW SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY.
SOME SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AS SOME SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT, THEN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY,
BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25 TO 30
KT AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. WILL ADD AN SCA TO LOWER DE BAY IN THE
330 AM FORECAST ISSUANCE WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL OCCUR.
OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY BEFORE MEANDERING AND
DISSIPATING THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL ALLOW
FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATER IN THE DAY.
THE FLOW THEN DECREASES FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT THEN MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD GUST TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SEAS ON OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
INTO SATURDAY, THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS THE
WINDS LESSEN FOR A TIME AND TURN SOUTHERLY SATURDAY. THE SEAS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW 5 FEET SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MAXIMUM WEDNESDAY EVENING TIDES ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS WERE
WITHIN 1 INCH OF THE MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION FLOOD THRESHOLD WITH
SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 1.2 FEET.
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE
AT LEAST 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET FOR BOTH OF TODAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
AND ANOTHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING AT 330 AM. THOSE
VALUES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH
FRIDAY`S NEW MOON WILL RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS AT HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY THIS
THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS MORNINGS ADVISORY ALONG THE DE COAST WILL BE MARGINAL, SIMILAR
TO LAST EVENING. ALONG THE OCEANFRONT THE INCOMING WAVES WILL BE A
FOOT OR 2 HIGHER THAN THOSE OF LAST EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, THE DAY SHIFT MAY BE EXTENDING THE CF ADVISORY TO
THE TIDAL DE RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE COMMODORE BARRY BRIDGE INTO
THE EXTREME UPPER PART OF DE BAY (REEDY POINT LINK) FOR THE LATE
THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO THE ASTRONOMICAL
COMPONENT OF THE TIDES. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT NEED MUCH OF A
POSITIVE SURGE DEPARTURE ESPECIALLY WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
LEADING UP TO THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. AS A RESULT, MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
COAST AND UP DELAWARE BAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 516A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 516A
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 516A
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 516A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...516A
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
341 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CWA PROVIDING FULL SUNSHINE...LIGHT
WINDS AND PLEASANT SPRING TEMPERATURES. 2 PM READINGS WERE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE MID LEVELS HAS
CAUSED A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY FROM EASTERN MN
INTO CENTRAL IA AND NORTH CENTRAL MO. THIS HAS PRETTY MUCH STAYED
JUST WEST OF THE DVN CWA AS THE CLOUDS DRIFT SOUTHWARD. THERE HAS
EVEN BEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND IN FAR WESTERN
WI AND THE EAST METRO OF THE TWIN CITIES. THESE SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE STRONGER ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE
GREAT PLAINS...WITH SOME LOWER 90S IN ND AND MANITOBA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THERE WAS 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30
MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER
40S. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWERS TO REMAIN IN WISCONSIN WHERE THE BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL EXIST. BELIEVE THE HRRR IS OVERDOING THE SHOWERS IN THE DVN CWA
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES. WON`T MENTION IN THE GRIDS
BUT SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR.
FRIDAY...WARM DAY WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WIND...850 MB TEMPERATURES OF +15 TO 16C AND A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
SUPPORT LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SPOTS
MAY MANAGE TO SEE 85 DEGREES CONSIDERING WE SHOULD HAVE SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
SATURDAY...EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN AND
POINTS TO THE E/NE. AS A RESULT...LIFT OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL
BE WEAK AND PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...POPS ARE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS LESS
THAN A TENTH FOR MOST AREAS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
SOUTHERN CWA BY THE MID TO LATE AFTN.
THUNDERSTORM DETAILS...THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN
THE DVN CWA ARE IN THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...TO
THE WEST OF GALESBURG...WHERE MUCAPES MAY EXCEED 1500 J/KG AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR IS NEAR 45 KTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SATURDAY/S COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS IT IS FORCED BY A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE
WEST-CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGHEST
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS 850MB WV TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.25 INCHES TO THE
ESE OF A COHERENT 850MB LOW MOVING INTO E NEBRASKA.
RAIN POTENTIAL...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CPC 3-7 DAY HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAS NOW SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE EAST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE PWATS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BECOME ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH...REMAINING BELOW 1 STANDARD DEVIATION...THE SYSTEM IS A SLOW
MOVER AND SHOWS A SOLID MOISTURE CONNECTION WITH THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...VIA 850 WV TRANSPORT VECTORS.
THE WPC 5-7 DAY QPF SUPPORTS CPC/S OUTLOOK...PAINTING A GENERAL 1 TO
3 INCHES ALONG WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS UP AND THE 850MB LOW
TRACKS...FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH IOWA AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...TOO EARLY TO FORECAST WITH MUCH DETAIL.
HOWEVER...SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND THE THREAT FOR RAIN TRANSLATES INTO NO BIG
WARM UPS WITH AVG HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S.
WEDNESDAY...SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED STORM. UTTECH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS AROUND
10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
243 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
SATURDAY-MONDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROGRESSING OVER MID-AMERICA
WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGH ALONG WITH THE
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS WILL HELP BOOST DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE 1ST OF A COUPLE SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH BY
AFTERNOON...DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW AND SHARPENING A DRYLINE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE FRONT LIKELY STALLING
OVER FAR NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NE BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...STUNTED BY PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THINKING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REACHING THE 50S ARE
REASONABLE...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS. THINKING STORM
INITIATION IS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT IN THE VICINITY OF
NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLY WESTERN KS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY PROBABLY
CONGEALING INTO A COMPLEX OR TWO AS IT PROGRESSES EAST/SOUTHEAST
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND TO WANE
WITH EASTERN EXTENT AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE 2ND IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST
DRYLINE SHOULD MIX A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
(ALTHOUGH NAM IS QUITE A BIT FURTHEST WEST)...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS LIKELY INCREASING TO AT LEAST NEAR 60F BY PEAK HEATING
SUNDAY. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF GFS/ECMWF COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOWER/FURTHER WEST NAM. THE ASSOCIATED
INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH CONTINUED NEAR 50 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH INITIATION PROBABLY
SOMEWHERE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF I-135/35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DETAILS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF VARIOUS FEATURES AND
ORIENTATION AND MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR VALUES...ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE QUALITY REMAIN IN QUESTION...BUT OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS
DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. AS THINGS
CURRENTLY STAND...THINKING HIGHEST PROBABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS...WITH MAIN THREATS LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER...IF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY INCREASES...TORNADO THREAT WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. STAY TUNED.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY EJECT NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS
MONDAY...PUSHING THE WARM SECTOR MAINLY EAST OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS MAY STILL BE UNDER THE
GUN FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS COULD ARRIVE FOR MAINLY FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLES
REGARDING LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AT MIDDAY...WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TO OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS BY 12Z FRIDAY.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A LEE
TROUGH AXIS WILL STEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY
FRIDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING INCREASE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 51 84 60 85 / 0 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 51 85 61 85 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 51 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 10
ELDORADO 51 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 51 83 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 53 86 60 84 / 0 0 10 20
GREAT BEND 53 87 61 84 / 0 0 0 20
SALINA 50 84 60 85 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 50 85 61 85 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 49 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 48 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 48 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 48 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...JMC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
213 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu May 5 2016
Temperatures were rising faster than the forecast T curve early
this morning, and a change to the Experimental HRRR appears to
have captures the temperature forecast a little better in the
midday. It may be a couple of degrees overdone as it is warmer
than all the other guidance/blends, however with it being early
May now the warming can last later in the day. The forecast high
was generally bumped about 3 degrees over the area. The surface
high will continue to give way to gradual troughing over eastern
Colorado and the extreme western counties overnight. Much more
breezy conditions to marginally windy conditions can be expected
Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu May 5 2016
Continued focus exists on the weekend for severe weather
potential. Saturday and Sunday present somewhat different pattern
recognition setups with marginal shear on Saturday, increasing by
Sunday as the upper jet advances into the central High Plains.
CAPES appear moderate on Saturday, and a few hail and wind
producing severe storms could develop near the dryline in this
marginal shear environment. The ECMWF is the model that pushes the
dryline almost out of our forecast area on Sunday afternoon
before convection initiation, while the GFS was far more emphatic
with convection occurring farther west. Many characteristics of
the mesoscale are as of yet unknown, however thunderstorms are
probable this weekend. The best chance for the most widespread
severe and especially tornadic threat would be more likely farther
north where the models are in agreement with placement of the warm
front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 5 2016
VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period, with broad
surface high pressure dominating the region for Today. The surface
pressure pattern adjusts on Friday as a trough over eastern Colorado
develops, increasing the gradient. Therefore, southerly surface
winds should increase beginning around mid morning with gusts
approaching 30 knots through the day Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 54 86 59 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 86 52 88 57 / 0 0 10 10
EHA 87 50 85 55 / 0 0 10 10
LBL 86 52 87 57 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 83 54 87 60 / 0 0 10 10
P28 83 54 86 60 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
353 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
WV SAT AND HRRR HAS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW HAS
PROGRESSED SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN NC AND NW SC. OVERALL THE MESO
MODELS AND MORE SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
PROGRESSION. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO
THE STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AS WE HAVE SEEN BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. THESE LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH THE ALREADY
REASONABLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OVERALL COVERAGE HAS BEEN
SCATTERED WITH BETTER COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. RIGHT NOW
MODELS DO WANT TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN THE FAR EAST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER BIGGEST QUESTION WOULD BE HOW MUCH
COVERAGE DO WE SEE. RIGHT NOW OPTED TO LOWER POPS GIVEN SOME OF
THE UNCERTAINTY. THIS UNCERTAINTY COMES WHEN LOOKING UPSTREAM
RADAR COVERAGE IS QUITE LOW COMPARED TO WHAT MAY HAVE BEEN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND CAMS ARE NOT HITTING IT TOO HARD EITHER.
THE OTHER QUESTION WOULD BE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER DO WE SEE
TONIGHT...RIGHT NOW KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGHER IN THE EAST GIVEN THE
BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE. ALSO COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPS AND
FOG POTENTIAL. RIGHT NOW WILL ADD SOME PATCHY DEEPER VALLEY FOG
AND JUST MINOR TEMP SPLIT GIVEN THE CLOUD UNCERTAINTY.
THIS UPPER LOW IS FAIRLY SLOW TO MOVE EAST...AS A OMEGA BLOCK
PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS. THEREFORE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF. THAT SAID THERE WAS A NEED FOR SHOWERS IN THE FAR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FOR FRIDAY GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESS OF VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW AND CONTINUED PVA/SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTH. NOW FRIDAY NIGHT
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS UPPER LOW/OMEGA BLOCK BREAK DOWN
AND PROGRESS EAST. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OR WAVE MAY
BRING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE MOST SPOTS SHOULD DRY OUT AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN
DEAMPLIFYING OVER THE WEEKEND AND EVOLVING TO MORE OR LESS A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MEANDERING OF
THE APPALACHIANS AND THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
FROM THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAY REGION INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
THEN INTO THE CANADIAN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
APPALACHIAN REGION FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BOUNDARY STALLING OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE OHIO OR
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ON ISENTROPIC LIFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON SATURDAY. A
LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY...WITH MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR TO LESSEN ON
SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MEANWHILE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
LOW MEANDERING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS INTO THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS. IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEVELOPING LOW AND HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THE
STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT ON MONDAY. THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TRACK FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AT MIDWEEK AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. MODEL AGREEMENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL IN THESE DETAILS DIMINISHES GREATLY BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ALSO CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
MODEL BLEND AND CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE FOR ANOTHER PEAK IN
CONVECTION CHANCES FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY INTO THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME A CONCERN
IN LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR TO START
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER ANTICIPATED. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
CIGS ARE IN THE VFR TO MVFR RANGE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THE MVFR
SITES HAVE BEEN IN FLUX. THAT SAID OVERALL SYNOPTICALLY WE ARE
SEEING A UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND NOW IT
HAS SHIFT SE INTO EASTERN TN THIS AFTERNOON. THE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER HAVE LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY AT
JKL...LOZ...AND SME. HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND TRACK INTO THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST. OVERALL EXPECTING LOW VFR
TO BE PREDOMINATE CIGS...BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY
AND UPSLOPE MAY HELP KEEP STRATO CU GOING...HOWEVER IF WE SEE
GREATER REDUCTIONS FOG CONCERNS WOULD NEED TO BE EVALUATED
PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEY TAF SITES. OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...BUT SOME GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON MORE
PAST THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
325 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
WV SAT AND HRRR HAS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW HAS
PROGRESSED SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN NC AND NW SC. OVERALL THE MESO
MODELS AND MORE SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
PROGRESSION. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO
THE STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AS WE HAVE SEEN BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. THESE LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH THE ALREADY
REASONABLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OVERALL COVERAGE HAS BEEN
SCATTERED WITH BETTER COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. RIGHT NOW
MODELS DO WANT TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN THE FAR EAST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER BIGGEST QUESTION WOULD BE HOW MUCH
COVERAGE DO WE SEE. RIGHT NOW OPTED TO LOWER POPS GIVEN SOME OF
THE UNCERTAINTY. THIS UNCERTAINTY COMES WHEN LOOKING UPSTREAM
RADAR COVERAGE IS QUITE LOW COMPARED TO WHAT MAY HAVE BEEN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND CAMS ARE NOT HITTING IT TOO HARD EITHER.
THE OTHER QUESTION WOULD BE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER DO WE SEE
TONIGHT...RIGHT NOW KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGHER IN THE EAST GIVEN THE
BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE. ALSO COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPS AND
FOG POTENTIAL. RIGHT NOW WILL ADD SOME PATCHY DEEPER VALLEY FOG
AND JUST MINOR TEMP SPLIT GIVEN THE CLOUD UNCERTAINTY.
THIS UPPER LOW IS FAIRLY SLOW TO MOVE EAST...AS A OMEGA BLOCK
PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS. THEREFORE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF. THAT SAID THERE WAS A NEED FOR SHOWERS IN THE FAR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FOR FRIDAY GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESS OF VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW AND CONTINUED PVA/SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTH. NOW FRIDAY NIGHT
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS UPPER LOW/OMEGA BLOCK BREAK DOWN
AND PROGRESS EAST. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OR WAVE MAY
BRING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE MOST SPOTS SHOULD DRY OUT AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
AVAILABLE SHORTLY...
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
CIGS ARE IN THE VFR TO MVFR RANGE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THE MVFR
SITES HAVE BEEN IN FLUX. THAT SAID OVERALL SYNOPTICALLY WE ARE
SEEING A UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND NOW IT
HAS SHIFT SE INTO EASTERN TN THIS AFTERNOON. THE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER HAVE LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY AT
JKL...LOZ...AND SME. HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND TRACK INTO THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST. OVERALL EXPECTING LOW VFR
TO BE PREDOMINATE CIGS...BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY
AND UPSLOPE MAY HELP KEEP STRATO CU GOING...HOWEVER IF WE SEE
GREATER REDUCTIONS FOG CONCERNS WOULD NEED TO BE EVALUATED
PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEY TAF SITES. OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...BUT SOME GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON MORE
PAST THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
130 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
BIGGEST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS IN THE CENTER PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR
DOES HAVE SOME HINT AT THIS OTHERWISE SEEMS LIKE CAMS HAVE BEEN A
BIT BEHIND ON THIS THOUGHT. THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY DO TO SOME
BREAKS IN SKY COVER SEEN ON VIS SAT AND VISUALLY HERE AT
JKL...THIS HAS LEAD TO STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT WILL
TEAM UP WITH ALREADY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOST OF THIS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY LIGHTNING WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE GIVEN TREND DID HAVE TO
REEVALUATE AND UPDATE THE HOURLY POP GRIDS TO DEAL WITH LATEST
OBS...REMOTE SENSING DATA...AND CAM TRENDS. OTHERWISE JUST MORE
MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPS...DEWS...AND WINDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE LOW CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING
BASED ON HRRR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WHILE IT WRAPS UP ACROSS
THE REGION DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS RESIDES GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY BASED OFF COMPOSITE WSR-88D RADAR
DATA. THAT SAID THESE SHOWERS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN TN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS THESE SHOWERS SLIDE OUT MORE SHOWERS
WILL SLIDE IN FROM WEST VA. THESE LOOK TO MAINLY AFFECT THE FAR
EAST AND NORTHEAST IN TERMS OF COVERAGE. THIS THINKING SEEMS TO
BE REASONABLE BASED ON THE CAMS...SPC SSEO...AND RADAR TRENDS.
GIVEN THE CURRENT SETUP LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEEING ANY THUNDER TODAY
AND THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST. OVERALL
TEMPS ARE ON TRACK AND COULD BE LOOKING AT MINIMUM HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD TODAY WHICH IS 52 DEGREES AT JKL BACK IN 2013.
UPDATED POPS/TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND AS THEY WORK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT MOST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE INCREASED POPS AREAWIDE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AS THIS VORT MAX DROPS SOUTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN SHOWERS
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS
PUSH IN FROM THE EAST. BLACK MOUNTAIN HAS DROPPED OFF TO 32
DEGREES...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE SEEN THERE.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE ALL RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO.
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS DRY AS ALL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A VORT MAX IS
DROPPING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA...INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND LIKELY CLIP THE COUNTIES IN THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY...OR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS AS THIS ACTIVITY DROPS SOUTH...BUT MAY DECIDE TO GO UP
TO CATEGORICAL IF SHOWERS HOLD TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE A DAMP MORNING FOR THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.
AS THE VORT MAX EXITS SOUTH THIS MORNING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WE MAY SEE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS DEVELOP
ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE DEPARTING VORT MAX. WITH 850MB TEMPS
GETTING CLOSE TO -1C THIS MORNING...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
SNOW FLAKES ON BLACK MOUNTAIN. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD MAINLY
IMPACT SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH BY
MIDDAY.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM OHIO. THIS TIME AROUND...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SET TO BE IMPACTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE
GONE MUCH HIGHER WITH POPS AS MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD BE
ABUNDANT. WE ALSO HAVE UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WHILE MODELS HAD INDICATED SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
YESTERDAY...TODAYS RUNS HAVE LOOKED MUCH LESS FAVORABLE...SO
DESPITE THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS...WILL MAINTAIN NO THUNDER. IF WE
WERE TO GET SOME STORMS...HAIL WOULD BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS. BY TONIGHT...THE WAVE WILL EXIT
SOUTH...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME
LOW POPS FOR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. FINALLY...ON
FRIDAY...ONE LAST WAVE LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH WITH A POSSIBLE UPTICK
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF AROUND 40 THIS MORNING...HAVE CUT BACK
HIGHS FOR TODAY BASICALLY BACK INTO THE LOW 50S...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS FAILING TO CRACK 50...ESPECIALLY
ON THE RIDGES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 40S...BUT CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM GOING TOO MUCH LOWER THAN HIGHS
TODAY. ON FRIDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHTLY MILDER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S.
STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT
LOWER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEAMPLIFYING OF THE
INITIAL BLOCKY PATTERN AS A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS OVER THE CONUS
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST. THE MID ATLANTIC ONE WILL LOSE
ITS INFLUENCE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS IT
STARTS TO MOVE OFF SHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW HEIGHT RISES AND RIDGING
TO SPREAD INTO THE BLUEGRASS STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR PART OF THE REGION BY ADDITIONAL
TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE AREA
PRIMED FOR WEAK SHORT WAVES TO PASS OVERHEAD IN FAIRLY FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE GREAT
LAKES TROUGH THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND WILL BE DAMPENED OUT VIA
THE BLEND FOR GRIDDED FORECAST PURPOSES. MEANWHILE...FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND OPEN UP ALLOWING BITS OF
ITS ENERGY TO SLIP EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE NOW WEAKENING SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS ACTION
IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THAT IT EVENTUALLY RESULTS IN THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF KENTUCKY AND MORE BOUTS OF
ENERGY MOVING OVER OUR CWA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE PATTERN THEN
CONTINUES ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ENDING UP
WITH TROUGHING NORTH OF THE AREA AND FLATTER...MORE ZONAL...
HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH LIMITED PACKETS OF ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN THE COMPLICATIONS OF THIS EVOLVING
PATTERN WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AS THE STACKED LOW TO OUR EAST LOSES
ITS INFLUENCE. AS PART OF THIS PROCESS...A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
PASSES THROUGH KENTUCKY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INITIALLY AND THEN THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES
THAT AFTERNOON. IN FACT...ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD BECOME STRONG GIVEN MODERATE CAPE...LOW
LIS...AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIP
SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
HANG UP OVER EAST KENTUCKY INTO THE START THE NEW WEEK. WITH
THIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED. ON SUNDAY
THE FRONT AND PCPN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS
OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DO BETTER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH WITH MID AND
UPPER 70S ANTICIPATED. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FUEL THE
INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH ANY
SHOWERS DURING THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AS FOR THE CR INIT...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES
EACH NIGHT ANTICIPATING MINIMAL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES ASIDE
FROM SATURDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. ALSO TWEAKED THE POPS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE LATEST
ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
CIGS ARE IN THE VFR TO MVFR RANGE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THE MVFR
SITES HAVE BEEN IN FLUX. THAT SAID OVERALL SYNOPTICALLY WE ARE
SEEING A UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND NOW IT
HAS SHIFT SE INTO EASTERN TN THIS AFTERNOON. THE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER HAVE LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY AT
JKL...LOZ...AND SME. HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND TRACK INTO THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST. OVERALL EXPECTING LOW VFR
TO BE PRODOMINATE CIGS...BUT OCCATIONAL MVFR NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY
AND UPSLOPE MAY HELP KEEP STRATO CU GOING...HOWEVER IF WE SEE
GREATER REDUCTIONS FOG CONCERNS WOULD NEED TO BE EVALUATED
PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEY TAF SITES. OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...BUT SOME GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON MORE
PAST THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
108 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
BIGGEST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS IN THE CENTER PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR
DOES HAVE SOME HINT AT THIS OTHERWISE SEEMS LIKE CAMS HAVE BEEN A
BIT BEHIND ON THIS THOUGHT. THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY DO TO SOME
BREAKS IN SKY COVER SEEN ON VIS SAT AND VISUALLY HERE AT
JKL...THIS HAS LEAD TO STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT WILL
TEAM UP WITH ALREADY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOST OF THIS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY LIGHTNING WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE GIVEN TREND DID HAVE TO
REEVALUATE AND UPDATE THE HOURLY POP GRIDS TO DEAL WITH LATEST
OBS...REMOTE SENSING DATA...AND CAM TRENDS. OTHERWISE JUST MORE
MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPS...DEWS...AND WINDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE LOW CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING
BASED ON HRRR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WHILE IT WRAPS UP ACROSS
THE REGION DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS RESIDES GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY BASED OFF COMPOSITE WSR-88D RADAR
DATA. THAT SAID THESE SHOWERS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN TN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS THESE SHOWERS SLIDE OUT MORE SHOWERS
WILL SLIDE IN FROM WEST VA. THESE LOOK TO MAINLY AFFECT THE FAR
EAST AND NORTHEAST IN TERMS OF COVERAGE. THIS THINKING SEEMS TO
BE REASONABLE BASED ON THE CAMS...SPC SSEO...AND RADAR TRENDS.
GIVEN THE CURRENT SETUP LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEEING ANY THUNDER TODAY
AND THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST. OVERALL
TEMPS ARE ON TRACK AND COULD BE LOOKING AT MINIMUM HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD TODAY WHICH IS 52 DEGREES AT JKL BACK IN 2013.
UPDATED POPS/TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND AS THEY WORK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT MOST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE INCREASED POPS AREAWIDE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AS THIS VORT MAX DROPS SOUTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN SHOWERS
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS
PUSH IN FROM THE EAST. BLACK MOUNTAIN HAS DROPPED OFF TO 32
DEGREES...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE SEEN THERE.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE ALL RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO.
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS DRY AS ALL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A VORT MAX IS
DROPPING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA...INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND LIKELY CLIP THE COUNTIES IN THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY...OR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS AS THIS ACTIVITY DROPS SOUTH...BUT MAY DECIDE TO GO UP
TO CATEGORICAL IF SHOWERS HOLD TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE A DAMP MORNING FOR THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.
AS THE VORT MAX EXITS SOUTH THIS MORNING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WE MAY SEE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS DEVELOP
ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE DEPARTING VORT MAX. WITH 850MB TEMPS
GETTING CLOSE TO -1C THIS MORNING...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
SNOW FLAKES ON BLACK MOUNTAIN. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD MAINLY
IMPACT SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH BY
MIDDAY.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM OHIO. THIS TIME AROUND...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SET TO BE IMPACTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE
GONE MUCH HIGHER WITH POPS AS MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD BE
ABUNDANT. WE ALSO HAVE UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WHILE MODELS HAD INDICATED SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
YESTERDAY...TODAYS RUNS HAVE LOOKED MUCH LESS FAVORABLE...SO
DESPITE THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS...WILL MAINTAIN NO THUNDER. IF WE
WERE TO GET SOME STORMS...HAIL WOULD BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS. BY TONIGHT...THE WAVE WILL EXIT
SOUTH...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME
LOW POPS FOR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. FINALLY...ON
FRIDAY...ONE LAST WAVE LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH WITH A POSSIBLE UPTICK
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF AROUND 40 THIS MORNING...HAVE CUT BACK
HIGHS FOR TODAY BASICALLY BACK INTO THE LOW 50S...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS FAILING TO CRACK 50...ESPECIALLY
ON THE RIDGES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 40S...BUT CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM GOING TOO MUCH LOWER THAN HIGHS
TODAY. ON FRIDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHTLY MILDER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S.
STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT
LOWER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEAMPLIFYING OF THE
INITIAL BLOCKY PATTERN AS A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS OVER THE CONUS
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST. THE MID ATLANTIC ONE WILL LOSE
ITS INFLUENCE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS IT
STARTS TO MOVE OFF SHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW HEIGHT RISES AND RIDGING
TO SPREAD INTO THE BLUEGRASS STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR PART OF THE REGION BY ADDITIONAL
TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE AREA
PRIMED FOR WEAK SHORT WAVES TO PASS OVERHEAD IN FAIRLY FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE GREAT
LAKES TROUGH THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND WILL BE DAMPENED OUT VIA
THE BLEND FOR GRIDDED FORECAST PURPOSES. MEANWHILE...FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND OPEN UP ALLOWING BITS OF
ITS ENERGY TO SLIP EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE NOW WEAKENING SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS ACTION
IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THAT IT EVENTUALLY RESULTS IN THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF KENTUCKY AND MORE BOUTS OF
ENERGY MOVING OVER OUR CWA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE PATTERN THEN
CONTINUES ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ENDING UP
WITH TROUGHING NORTH OF THE AREA AND FLATTER...MORE ZONAL...
HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH LIMITED PACKETS OF ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN THE COMPLICATIONS OF THIS EVOLVING
PATTERN WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AS THE STACKED LOW TO OUR EAST LOSES
ITS INFLUENCE. AS PART OF THIS PROCESS...A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
PASSES THROUGH KENTUCKY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INITIALLY AND THEN THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES
THAT AFTERNOON. IN FACT...ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD BECOME STRONG GIVEN MODERATE CAPE...LOW
LIS...AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIP
SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
HANG UP OVER EAST KENTUCKY INTO THE START THE NEW WEEK. WITH
THIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED. ON SUNDAY
THE FRONT AND PCPN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS
OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DO BETTER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH WITH MID AND
UPPER 70S ANTICIPATED. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FUEL THE
INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH ANY
SHOWERS DURING THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AS FOR THE CR INIT...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES
EACH NIGHT ANTICIPATING MINIMAL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES ASIDE
FROM SATURDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. ALSO TWEAKED THE POPS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE LATEST
ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
CIGS ARE STARTING TO COME DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN SHOWERS
SPREAD INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MID MORNING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
WAVE WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND CIGS AGAIN DROPPING BACK TO
MVFR. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1052 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE LOW CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING
BASED ON HRRR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WHILE IT WRAPS UP ACROSS
THE REGION DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS RESIDES GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY BASED OFF COMPOSITE WSR-88D RADAR
DATA. THAT SAID THESE SHOWERS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN TN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS THESE SHOWERS SLIDE OUT MORE SHOWERS
WILL SLIDE IN FROM WEST VA. THESE LOOK TO MAINLY AFFECT THE FAR
EAST AND NORTHEAST IN TERMS OF COVERAGE. THIS THINKING SEEMS TO
BE REASONABLE BASED ON THE CAMS...SPC SSEO...AND RADAR TRENDS.
GIVEN THE CURRENT SETUP LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEEING ANY THUNDER TODAY
AND THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST. OVERALL
TEMPS ARE ON TRACK AND COULD BE LOOKING AT MINIMUM HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD TODAY WHICH IS 52 DEGREES AT JKL BACK IN 2013.
UPDATED POPS/TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND AS THEY WORK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT MOST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE INCREASED POPS AREAWIDE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AS THIS VORT MAX DROPS SOUTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN SHOWERS
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS
PUSH IN FROM THE EAST. BLACK MOUNTAIN HAS DROPPED OFF TO 32
DEGREES...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE SEEN THERE.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE ALL RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO.
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS DRY AS ALL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A VORT MAX IS
DROPPING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA...INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND LIKELY CLIP THE COUNTIES IN THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY...OR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS AS THIS ACTIVITY DROPS SOUTH...BUT MAY DECIDE TO GO UP
TO CATEGORICAL IF SHOWERS HOLD TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE A DAMP MORNING FOR THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.
AS THE VORT MAX EXITS SOUTH THIS MORNING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WE MAY SEE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS DEVELOP
ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE DEPARTING VORT MAX. WITH 850MB TEMPS
GETTING CLOSE TO -1C THIS MORNING...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
SNOW FLAKES ON BLACK MOUNTAIN. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD MAINLY
IMPACT SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH BY
MIDDAY.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM OHIO. THIS TIME AROUND...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SET TO BE IMPACTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE
GONE MUCH HIGHER WITH POPS AS MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD BE
ABUNDANT. WE ALSO HAVE UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WHILE MODELS HAD INDICATED SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
YESTERDAY...TODAYS RUNS HAVE LOOKED MUCH LESS FAVORABLE...SO
DESPITE THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS...WILL MAINTAIN NO THUNDER. IF WE
WERE TO GET SOME STORMS...HAIL WOULD BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS. BY TONIGHT...THE WAVE WILL EXIT
SOUTH...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME
LOW POPS FOR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. FINALLY...ON
FRIDAY...ONE LAST WAVE LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH WITH A POSSIBLE UPTICK
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF AROUND 40 THIS MORNING...HAVE CUT BACK
HIGHS FOR TODAY BASICALLY BACK INTO THE LOW 50S...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS FAILING TO CRACK 50...ESPECIALLY
ON THE RIDGES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 40S...BUT CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM GOING TOO MUCH LOWER THAN HIGHS
TODAY. ON FRIDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHTLY MILDER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S.
STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT
LOWER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEAMPLIFYING OF THE
INITIAL BLOCKY PATTERN AS A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS OVER THE CONUS
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST. THE MID ATLANTIC ONE WILL LOSE
ITS INFLUENCE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS IT
STARTS TO MOVE OFF SHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW HEIGHT RISES AND RIDGING
TO SPREAD INTO THE BLUEGRASS STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR PART OF THE REGION BY ADDITIONAL
TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE AREA
PRIMED FOR WEAK SHORT WAVES TO PASS OVERHEAD IN FAIRLY FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE GREAT
LAKES TROUGH THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND WILL BE DAMPENED OUT VIA
THE BLEND FOR GRIDDED FORECAST PURPOSES. MEANWHILE...FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND OPEN UP ALLOWING BITS OF
ITS ENERGY TO SLIP EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE NOW WEAKENING SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS ACTION
IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THAT IT EVENTUALLY RESULTS IN THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF KENTUCKY AND MORE BOUTS OF
ENERGY MOVING OVER OUR CWA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE PATTERN THEN
CONTINUES ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ENDING UP
WITH TROUGHING NORTH OF THE AREA AND FLATTER...MORE ZONAL...
HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH LIMITED PACKETS OF ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN THE COMPLICATIONS OF THIS EVOLVING
PATTERN WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AS THE STACKED LOW TO OUR EAST LOSES
ITS INFLUENCE. AS PART OF THIS PROCESS...A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
PASSES THROUGH KENTUCKY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INITIALLY AND THEN THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES
THAT AFTERNOON. IN FACT...ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD BECOME STRONG GIVEN MODERATE CAPE...LOW
LIS...AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIP
SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
HANG UP OVER EAST KENTUCKY INTO THE START THE NEW WEEK. WITH
THIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED. ON SUNDAY
THE FRONT AND PCPN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS
OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DO BETTER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH WITH MID AND
UPPER 70S ANTICIPATED. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FUEL THE
INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH ANY
SHOWERS DURING THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AS FOR THE CR INIT...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES
EACH NIGHT ANTICIPATING MINIMAL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES ASIDE
FROM SATURDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. ALSO TWEAKED THE POPS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE LATEST
ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
CIGS ARE STARTING TO COME DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN SHOWERS
SPREAD INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MID MORNING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
WAVE WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND CIGS AGAIN DROPPING BACK TO
MVFR. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
133 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
SHOWERS HAVE EXITED TO THE SOUTH WITH A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NEXT WAVE IS DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WILL SPREAD SHOWERS
BACK INTO THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 5 AM. INCREASED POPS
QUITE A BIT AND MAY NEED TO GO FURTHER AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
EXPAND. CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A DAMP MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF JACKSON AND HAZARD. A FEW SHOWERS COULD EVEN IMPACT AREAS
A BIT FARTHER NORTHEAST. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
WITH SOME CLEARING COMING OVER THE AREA. BLACK MOUNTAIN HAS
ALREADY REACHED 36...WITH AREAS IN THE NORTH JUST ABOUT TO DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S. CERTAINLY A CHILLY MORNING OUT THERE. THIS
COLD START...COMBINED WITH THE DAMP AND CLOUDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING DAY MAY KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR SOME OF THE AREA FOR
THE UPCOMING DAY. WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1059 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS. THESE HAVE BECOME MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE OVER THE PAST
HOUR...SO HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS POINT. THE
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
ROTATING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN. THIS MAY BE A BIT ON
THE FAST-SIDE...SO HAVE STUCK WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST TIMING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 40S IN PLACES
ALREADY...WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLOUDS LOOK TO FILL
BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES IN FROM INDIANA...SO AROUND
40 DEGREES STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR A LOW. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME
PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION...SPARKED FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THIS LINE PUT DOWN QUITE A FEW INSTANCES OF PEA-SIZED HAIL AS WELL
AS SOME GUSTY WINDS AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY. EXPECT THE WEAKENING
TREND TO CONTINUE AS LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WILL
HANG ONTO ISOLATED THUNDER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE LIKELY
ELIMINATING IT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KY...OH AND INDIANA. THERE HAS
NOT BEEN ANY LIGHTNING SO FAR WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM MOREHEAD TO SOMERSET. HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS SHOWING
UP WITH SOME OF THE STORMS FURTHER WEST NEAR AND ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL FEEL A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THUNDER
POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MI INTO KY. THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING SE OF KY ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE COLD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER FOR THURSDAY IN AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
COOL START AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BUT WE QUICKLY WARM UP
BY SATURDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY RIDE SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP THIS CHANCE SHOWERS GIVEN THE SETUP.
BY SATURDAY RETURN FLOW TAKES OVER AND WE SEE WARMER TEMPS SURGE
INTO THE UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE DO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE
FAR NORTH AND EAST. THEN THE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS...AS
A FRONT DIVES SOUTH AND MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE INITIAL SHOT WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS SOUTH AND SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL
SETUP. THEN THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AND EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH...AS
A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY WHERE WE LOOK TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER. THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EAST WITH SEVERAL WAVES RIDING INTO THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE PRESENTLY...WE WILL SEE CIGS
START TO COME DOWN TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AS A UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. LAMP GUIDANCE HAS
MAINLY JUST MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL GO THIS
ROUTE IN THE TAFS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
WAVE WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND CIGS AGAIN DROPPING BACK TO
MVFR. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
656 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW REACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE: BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE LESS NORTH WITH RADAR
REF LATEST HRRR OUTPUT AND FURTHER NORTH HIGH RESOLUTION NAM
OUTPUT...WE ADJUSTED FCST QPF IN THE 00Z-06Z AND 06-12Z TM FRAMES
SLIGHTLY TO THE SE FROM THE PREV FCST. FCST POPS WERE THEN RE-
FORMULATED FOR THE OVRNGT PD USING THE POP FROM QPF NEAR TERM TOOL
WHICH SHARPENED THE GRADIENT OF POPS FROM LITTLE IN THE NW TO NEAR
100 PERCENT FROM E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA TO THE COAST...WITH THE
GREATEST GRADIENT OF POPS OVR N CNTRL PTNS OF THE REGION AND SE
AROOSTOOK COUNTY. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST HRLY
TEMPS INTO THE OVRNGT HRS BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS TO UNCHGD FCST
LOWS POSTED ERLY FRI MORN.
ORGNL DISC: LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPINNING WELL OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN RAPIDLY MOVE TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT.
WE`RE ALREADY SEEING MOISTURE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA, AS EVIDENCED BY PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. THE
RAIN WON`T BE FAR BEHIND AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. AS WITH LAST NIGHT`S RAIN, DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION, WITH AREAS NORTH OF A HOULTON TO
MILLINOCKET LINE SEEING JUST SOME SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE
ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO, WITH FAR WASHINGTON COUNTY RECEIVING A
LITTLE MORE. THE RAIN WILL BE A QUICK SHOT GIVEN THE LOW`S RAPID
FORWARD PROGRESSION AND WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. IT`LL BE A BIT BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSING LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTH WOODS TO THE LOWER 40S DOWNEAST.
PLEASANT WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY, ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY; EXPECT
EVERYONE WILL SEE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUN BY MID AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO TO THE LOWER 60S IN MOST SPOTS, THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
DOWNEAST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL HANG IN LONGEST; HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE THE CUT-OFF LOW FINALLY GETTING ABSORBED
BACK INTO THE MAIN WEATHER PATTERN AND A DIGGING TROF MOVING
ACROSS QUEBEC. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL START OFF CLEAR, BUT HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD BACK NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THICKEN THRU THE DAY ON
SAT. AS THE CUT-OFF GETS ABSORBED BACK INTO THE UPR TROF AND ITS
MOISTURE STREAMS BACK NORTH AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT, MAY
HAVE SOME ISO TO SCT SHWRS LATE SAT AM THRU SAT NIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE CWA DURING THE
AFTN AND EVE ON SUN. THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT, BUT FELT CONFIDENT TO INTRODUCE LKLY TO LOW-
END DEF POPS. CURRENTLY GOING FOR QPF OF A QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH. TEMPS WILL BE ABV NRML SAT, BUT INCR CLOUDS AND AFTN PRECIP
WILL LIKELY TAMP DOWN TEMPS A BIT ON SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME PRECIP LKLY TO BE ONGOING ALONG THE N AND E BORDERS AT 00Z
MON START OF THE LONG TERM, BUT QUICKLY DIMINISHES. HWVR,
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS QUICKLY DEVELOP REGARDING THE SPEED OF
THE UPR TROF DEPARTING THE REGION, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS
AND A FEW SHWRS TO LINGER UP NORTH. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SFC SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS SRN NEW ENG TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT, BUT ALSO
DISAGREE QUITE A BIT ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP, SO KEPT
POPS AT CHC FOR NOW. 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE CLOSER TO THE GFS AND
CMC SOLUTIONS, SO FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES MAY BE ABLE TO HAVE A BIT
MORE CERTAINTY IF THAT TREND HOLDS. TEMPS ON MON LKLY TO BE A BIT
BLW NRML BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT QUICKLY REBOUND TO NEAR OR A BIT
ABV NRML THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL SITES CURRENTLY UNDER PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS AND
THIS SHOULD BE THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY, THOUGH THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS MAY SEE A PERIOD OF VFR. THEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS
A PERIOD OF RAIN. KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE THE STEADIEST RAIN AS
WELL AS THE LONGEST PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS (00Z-11Z). THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE JUST SOME SHOWERS AT
MOST, BUT CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO BELOW 1000 FT LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 12Z AS SKIES CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. ALL SITES VFR BY 18Z.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR AT ALL SITES FRI NIGHT, EXCEPT PATCHY FOG
CAN`T BE RULED OUT, SPCLY KHUL SOUTH TO THE COAST AS WINDS MAY BE
A BIT LIGHTER THERE. HIGH CIGS SPREAD OVER THE CWA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SAT AND SAT NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUING VFR AT FIRST, THOUGH
ANY SHWRS LATER SAT INTO SUN AM COULD BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU THE STATE FROM W TO E BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND
06Z MON, EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES. CIGS WILL
INCREASE ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA, BUT AS THE UPR TROF
REMAINS OVER HEAD, COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES MON, SPCLY IF
ANY SHWRS LINGER.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE AS WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CONVERTED OVER TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
FRIDAY MORNING TO EXTEND THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS WILL BE 5-9 FEET.
SHORT TERM: WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE
SHORT TERM, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA LEVELS FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT. SEAS LOOK TO SETTLE SOME SAT NIGHT INTO SUN, AND MAY
ALLOW THE ANTICIPATED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO BE DROPPED.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...KREDENSOR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...VJN/KREDENSOR
MARINE...VJN/KREDENSOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
435 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AND MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW
REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STEADY RAIN WILL END TODAY AND ANOTHER BATCH COMING TONIGHT.
WEAK LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS THE OPEN ATLC IS FORECAST TO PASS
WELL S OF THE CWA. OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS A STRONG CONVERGENCE
ZONE W/RAIN LIFTING UP ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. RADAR AND SFC OBS
SHOWED THE STEADIEST RAINFALL FROM HOULTON-MILLINOCKET ON SOUTH
W/THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION W/UP TO 0.25
INCHES. FURTHER N, HIGH PRES IN SE CANADA WAS KEEPING THE RAIN AT
BAY. LATEST RADAR TREND SHOWS NORTHERN EDGE OF STEADY RAIN JUST S
OF THE CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE. THE HRRR 3KM MODEL ALONG W/THE HIGH
RES WRF WAS DOING A NICE JOB IN CATCHING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
RAIN. USING THIS BLEND BRINGS THE NORTHERN FRINGE ACROSS CARIBOU
AND PRESQUE ISLE BEFORE SHIFTING E AND EXITING THIS REGION LATER
THIS MORNING. NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS W/LLVLS MOISTENING SOME
ACROSS THE NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY. THEREFORE, BROUGHT POPS UP SOME TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SHIFT IN THE RAIN. RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT IS OUT OF
THE CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING W/HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN FROM THE
NE. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING OUT ABOVE 850MBS INTO
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOISTENING UP AGAIN BY THE EVENING AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN TODAY W/LOW
50S AT BEST FOR MOST OF THE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW
WHERE MID 50S COULD BE REACHED W/SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.
FOR TONIGHT, THE NEXT SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT
UP FROM THE MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE QUICKLY TOWARD NOVA
SCOTIA BY FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGION THIS EVENING AND THEN
SPREAD NE. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL W/UP TO 0.25 INCHES IS EXPECTED
TO BE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
W/RAINFALL AMOUNTS FALLING OFF AS ONE MOVES N. AS A MATTER OF
FACT, AREAS N AND W OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE WILL REMAIN DRY
DUE HIGH PRES STAYING PUT N OF THE BORDER. AREAS ACROSS THE FAR N
AND W WILL SEE TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S WHILE THE
REST OF THE REGION WILL STAY IN THE LOW 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST LATER FRIDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
60S EXCEPT MID 50S TONEAR 60 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOWN EASTCOAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF FROM THE WEST. EXPECT PARTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION BUT IT WILL BE COOLER
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AN UPPER TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL TRANSITION TO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
BEFORE HEADING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
WE MAY SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE SHOWERS ON TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MORE SHOWERS BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB THIS MORNING W/SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WILL STAY AROUND VFR W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. FOR TONIGHT, CONDITIONS FORECAST TO DROP TO MVFR/IFR FOR
KBGR AND KBHB W/THE NORTHERN TERMINALS HITTING MVFR.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT IN LOW CIGS FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE A LULL BY THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS DROP OFF
BELOW 25 KTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS TO 25 KTS W/SEAS BUILDING TO
6 TO 8 FT EXPECTED AS LOW PRES APCHS FROM THE MID ATLC REGION.
SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...TD
LONG TERM...TD
AVIATION...HEWITT/TD
MARINE...HEWITT/TD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
153 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW
REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
140 AM UPDATE:
RAIN SHIELD IS EDGING FURTHER N AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST RADAR
TREND. THE HRRR 3KM MODEL WAS LINING UP WELL W/THE PLACEMENT OF
THE RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE RAIN BY 12Z
ALTHOUGH LIGHT(<0.10 INCHES). THE ST. JOHN VALLEY LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY GIVEN THE PROJECTION OF THE HRRR MOVING THE RAIN RAPIDLY NNE.
HIGH PRES TO N WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AIR TO SUPPRESS THE BULK OF THE
RAIN. ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS WHICH ARE RUNNING WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST.
ORGNL DISC:
FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT WE`LL SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE STEADY
RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING AS RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, ANOTHER BETTER-DEFINED SURFACE LOW WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE REGION. AGAIN, MORE SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING PRECIPITATION. 24-HR
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF A HOULTON TO
GREENVILLE LINE, WHERE AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCH ARE LIKELY. THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL SEE A BIT MORE, PERHAPS UP TO 0.75 INCH.
NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN 0.25 INCH, WITH THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY MAYBE GETTING A SPRINKLE OR TWO. HIGHS WILL BE WARMEST
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THEY MAY EVEN SEE A PEAK OF SUN OR TWO. THE
SAINT JOHN VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S, WHILE DOWNEAST
AREAS WILL ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 50 AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL BE SUPPORTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE THURSDAY EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM AND THE
GFS BRING THE LOW NEAR ENOUGH TO OUR REGION TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO MAINLY THE DOWNEAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS A BIT OF
LIGHT RAIN STRAYING INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NAM KEEPING PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH. THE
LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AND A WEAK TRAILING SURFACE LOW HANGS BACK IN THE MID
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING WEAK RIDGING ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
THE TWO SYSTEMS TO BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. A BIT OF MOISTURE MAY STRAY INTO THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND PULLS EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AREA MAY ALSO HELP TO PULL SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY. SURFACE FEATURES ARE VERY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED AND ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE ONLY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A WEAK AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA...WITH A SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST OF NJ. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER LOW
ALONG THE COAST OF NJ WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...EARLY SUN
MRNG...COMBINING ENERGY WITH A MUCH DEEPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
JAMES BAY REGION SUN MRNG. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT ON
TIMING...HOWEVER BOTH MOVE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MAINE BY TUES
MRNG..WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 6 HRS AHEAD OF THE GFS. WITH THE FRONT
THROUGH NRN MAINE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SLOWLY OVER ERN QUEBEC THRU WED
MRNG...WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING EAST INTO THE MARITIMES.
A NEW LOW OVER SRN ILL...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE N
ATLANTIC ACROSS CAPE COD...THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
MAINE...WITH PRECIP EXTENDING INTO THE NRN GULF OF MAINE WATERS
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL AREA A WEAK HIGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LOADED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.
LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. USED THE WIND GUST
BY FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT, WITH KBGR
AND KBHB MOST LIKELY TO SEE REDUCED VISIBILITY, ALONG WITH IFR
CEILINGS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH AND IFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN DOWNEAST ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY AND REMAIN
VFR INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PATCHY FOG MAY LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR
OR IFR IN SOME SPOTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY
MORNING MAY LOWER TO MVFR IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDINESS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 20 KT AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET.
SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
355 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A NNW FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATING THE WRN GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE E AND AN
UPR RDG IN CENTRAL NAMERICA. A SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM THE UPR
MIDWEST INTO WRN QUEBEC AS WELL AS DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB
RAOB IS BRINGING A MOSUNNY DAY TO UPR MI...BUT MORE MAINLY MID/HI
CLDS RELATED TO WAA IN THE SW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RDG ARE
PRESENT FM WRN LK SUP INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS
UNDER THESE CLDS OVER MN WHERE MID LVL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN
STEEPER...BUT ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN WAA AND RELATIVELY DRY
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS ARE LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF THIS PCPN...WITH
A DIMINISHING TREND IN RECENT HRS.
TNGT...AS SFC HI PRES RDG CONTINUES TO SLIDE SEWD...SW FLOW/WAA ARE
PROGGED TO DOMINATE THE CWA. EXPECT SOME MID/HI CLDS RELATED TO THIS
WAA TO PASS OVER THE CWA MAINLY THRU 06Z BEFORE SUBSIDENCE RELATED
TO SHARPENING H7 RDG AXIS DRIES UP THESE CLDS. CONSIDERED ADDING
SOME ISOLD SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVNG OVER THE FAR W WHERE NAM
SHOWS POCKET OF H7-5 LAPSE RATES ARND 8C/KM AND SOME OF THE HIER RES
MODELS GENERATE SPOTTY QPF...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUG THE AIRMASS
IS SO DRY IN A RELATIVE SENSE THAT THE DRY FCST GUIDANCE IS ON THE
RIGHT TRACK. COMBINATION OF THE WAA CLDS AND LLVL WARMING RELATED TO
STEADY SW FLOW WL HOLD MIN TEMPS UP MUCH HIER THAN THIS MRNG. IN
FACT...READINGS MAY NOT FALL BLO 50 OVER THE FAR W FM IRONWOOD TO
ONTONAGON WHERE THE SW FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE.
FRI...UPR MI WL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BTWN DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG
TO THE SE AND SFC LO PRES TRACKING ACROSS NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF SHRTWV
MOVING OVER WRN RDG AND INTO FAR NW ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST AS HI AS 18C AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITHIN
LINGERING DRY AIRMASS...TEMPS AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF
MAINLY LK MI OVER THE W HALF WL RISE WELL INTO THE 80S AND PERHAPS
ARPCH 90 AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH DAYTIME MIXING CAUSING SFC DEWPTS
TO DROP AT LEAST CLOSE TO 40 IN THE AFTN...EXPECT MIN RH TO DIP NEAR
20 PCT AT A FEW PLACES. ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH
GUSTS UP TO ARND 20 MPH...FIRE WX CONCERNS WL BE ELEVATED. WINDS WL
BE A BIT STRONGER OVER THE E...BUT MODERATION OFF LK MI WL LIMIT
FIRE WX CONCERNS THERE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
LONG TERM STARTS AT 00Z SAT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND WARM AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 17C AT 00Z...BUT WILL
DROP TO 1-2C BY 18Z SAT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT UP TO 0.20 INCHES OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA FRI NIGHT...BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SAT...BUT SOME AREAS MAY NOT
EVEN SEE 0.10 INCHES. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY
(CAPE UP TO 750 J/KG)...BUT NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20KTS).
DRY AIR MOVES BACK IN ON SAT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MIN RH VALUES IN
THE MID 20S OVER THE INTERIOR W AROUND AROUND 40 PERCENT INTERIOR E.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE W AND WILL GUST UP TO 25 MPH OVER THE
E. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND E
AND AROUND 60 INTERIOR W. CERTAINLY NOT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
BUT THE DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY NEGATE ANY MOISTURE WE GET FRI NIGHT.
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND POSSIBLY THE KEWEENAW AND ERN UPPER MI SAT EVENING INTO
SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES N OF THE AREA...BUT THINK
POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR LAND AREAS.
SUN WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPS/RH/CLOUDS TO SAT...BUT WITH LOWER WINDS.
MON AND TUE HAD APPEARED WET FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS...BUT THOSE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER. NOW ONLY THE 00Z/05 ECMWF SHOWS PRECIP
OVER THE CWA...EXCEPT THE GLOBAL GEM WHICH HAS PRECIP BRUSHING SRN
MENOMINEE COUNTY. WILL ACCORDINGLY START A DECREASING TREND FOR THE
POP FORECAST FOR MON THROUGH TUE. NO PRECIP EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KTS TO
PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
SSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
TO THE N AT 20-25 KTS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS BOUNDARY. AS HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 15-20 KTS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
124 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
RIDGE FROM HE ROCKIES INTO SASK AND A TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH
ERN UPPER MI TO INDIANA. AT THE SFC...GUSTY NORTH WINDS PREVAILED
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI BETWEEN 1001 MB LOW PRES OVER SRN
LOWER MI AND A RIDGE FROM NW ONTARIO INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. VIS
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED THINNING CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI AS THE 900-700
MB MOISTURE THINS OUT WITH DAYTIME MIXING AND THE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA.
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE CLEARING TREND HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER THAN
FCST...EXPECT THAT BTWN 21Z-24Z MOST OF THE REMAINING CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER THE WEST
WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE WITH MIN READINGS IN THE MID 20S OVER THE
INTERIOR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
THURSDAY...MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING INTO THE WRN LAKES WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER WEATHER. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND. THE WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT KEEPING MAX READINGS IN THE 50S NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY
FRI...ALLOWING UPPER RIDGE AND SFC WARM FRONT TO BRING WARM
SUMMERLIKE TEMPS BRIEFLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRI AFTN. INITIAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON EDGE OF STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES UP TO 8C/KM
COULD TRIGGER ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER MAINLY LK SUPERIOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING WHERE STRONGEST H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION LINKS UP WITH
SUFFICIENT H85-H7 MOISTURE. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN...EXPECT
SCT MID CLOUDS TO START THE DAY FRI...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN
WITH H85 TEMPS TO +16 SUPPORTS GOING FORECAST OF 70S EAST DOWNSTREAM
OF LK MICHIGAN TO MID-UPR 80S WEST IN THE AFTN. DWPNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S...SO RH VALUES DROP TO 20-25 PCT IN THE AFTN. SW-S
WINDS LOOKS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EARLIER MODEL FORECASTS SHOWED BUT
STILL GUSTS PEAKING AT 20 MPH WILL KEEP AREA BLO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP EYE ON IN TERMS OF IF
STRONGER TREND IN WINDS CONTINUES. NAM/GFS TRY TO SHOW POCKET OF
DWPNTS FM LOW-MID 50S AND THUS GENERATE SBCAPE OVER 1000J/KG OVER
CNTRL CWA FRI AFTN AND SHOW SOME CONVECTION. COULD MAYBE SEE DWPNTS
UP TO 50 LOCALLY MAINLY NEAR WI BORDER SOUTH CNTRL. OVERALL PATTERN
WITH LOWERING H85-H7 RH FAVORS DEEPER MIXING AND LOWER DWPNTS...SO
WILL KEEP FRI AFTN WARM BUT WITH NO CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
WARMTH WILL BE BRIEF AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO
PUSHES SFC-H85 COLD FRONT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATE EVENING NORTHWEST
TO OVERNIGHT SCNTRL. EVEN THOUGH STRONGER PVA STAYS NORTH CLOSER TO
TRACK OF MAIN SHORTWAVE ACROSS ONTARIO...DIFFLUENT H5-H3 FLOW AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT FAVORS BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSRA WITH CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM. AS
FOR STRENGTH OF TSRA...UNLESS FRONT ARRIVES 00Z-03Z INSTEAD OF MORE
03Z-06Z...LIKELY LOOKING AT ELEVATED STORMS. ELEVATED MUCAPE
FORECASTS VARY WITH NAM SHOWING UP TO 2000J/KG AT 00Z SAT MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN WI WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE MAINLY 500J/KG OR LESS. ECMWF
KEEPS MOST INSTABILITY FARTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST OF CWA FRI NIGHT. MEAN
FLOW IS WNW SO IF ECMWF IS CORRECT...MOST OF TSRA WOULD REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF CWA. IF MODELS WITH MORE BULLISH INSTABILITY FARTHER
EAST ARE CORRECT...THERE IS ENOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO RESULT IN
STRONGER STORMS. SPC HAS MOST OF CWA WITHIN GENERAL TSRA RISK FRI
AND FRI NIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH MAIN HINDRANCE THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY. ATTM LOOKS LIKE TOTAL RAINFALL FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT WILL BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS...SIMILAR TO
FROPA THAT JUST OCCURRED TUE AFTN INTO THIS MORNING.
TURNING BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL NOT BE
A COOL AS TODAY BUT THE COOLING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COMPARED TO THE
SUMMERTIME WARMTH ON FRI...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. SHOULD DRY
OUT WITH RH VALUES DOWN TO 25-30 PCT SAT AFTN. IF SHOWERS AND TSRA
ARE MORE SPOTTY ON FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN MINIMAL RAIN...THE
STRONGER WINDS AND LOW RH WOULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
ON SAT AFTN OVER INTERIOR WEST AS TEMPS STILL REACH INTO THE 60S.
RE-INFORCING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO MEAN TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND
POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
ISOLD-SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER EAST HALF.
A BIT QUICKER TREND IN MODELS SUGGESTS SHRA/TSRA COULD MOVE OVER
KEWEENAW AS EARLY AS MID-LATE SAT AFTN. OTHERWISE...REST OF LONG
TERM SUN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS GENERALLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN THERE IN CASE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TUE AND/OR WED.
LATEST ECMWF WOULD POINT TO AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH 60S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN VCNTY RESULTS IN LAKE BREEZES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU
THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KNOTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN WESTERLY UNDER 20
KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. RED FLAG WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY...
CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS OF 850HPA FIELDS SHOW A TIGHT GRADIENT OF
WARMING TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
VORT MAX HAS DROPPED ACROSS MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...AND IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN. THE COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED
RAIN SHOWERS IS LIMITED AND THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 5KFT WILL
LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THIS WAVE TO PRODUCE
THUNDER. LIGHTNING HAS ACCOMPANIED THE FAST MOVING VORT MAX
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. HAVE INTRODUCED
THUNDER TO THE MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE WAVE EXITS THE REGION TO
THE SOUTH BY THE NOON HOUR...GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS AND RAPIDLY FALLING RH
VALUES. THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WITH 850HPA TEMPS IN THE TEENS...WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES
SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH
LOCATIONS IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND
25MPH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 25% WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AS COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT...THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO
CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE BEHAVIOR.
HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND
SPEEDS IN THE MIXED LAYER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
NAM/SREF/GFS ARE INDICATING MUCAPE OF UP TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OR
MORE. THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LOW...THOUGH...BECAUSE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY TRAIL
WELL BEHIND THE INSTABILITY AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT....LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE GUSTY NW
FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGHT
DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY...PROVIDING SUNNY
AND SEASONALLY NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
A STACKED LOW MIGHT LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT
WEEK...STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT MAY RESULT IN A FEW
DAYS OF COOL EASTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COULD
LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS WEAKENING TOWARDS
THE EVENING. CLEARING SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 73 51 81 45 / 20 0 20 30
INL 83 52 80 39 / 20 0 20 10
BRD 81 53 85 47 / 20 0 20 20
HYR 71 50 81 47 / 20 0 10 40
ASX 70 49 82 46 / 10 0 10 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
601 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. RED FLAG WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY...
CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS OF 850HPA FIELDS SHOW A TIGHT GRADIENT OF
WARMING TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
VORT MAX HAS DROPPED ACROSS MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...AND IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN. THE COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED
RAIN SHOWERS IS LIMITED AND THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 5KFT WILL
LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THIS WAVE TO PRODUCE
THUNDER. LIGHTNING HAS ACCOMPANIED THE FAST MOVING VORT MAX
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. HAVE INTRODUCED
THUNDER TO THE MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE WAVE EXITS THE REGION TO
THE SOUTH BY THE NOON HOUR...GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS AND RAPIDLY FALLING RH
VALUES. THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WITH 850HPA TEMPS IN THE TEENS...WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES
SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH
LOCATIONS IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND
25MPH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 25% WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AS COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT...THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO
CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE BEHAVIOR.
HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND
SPEEDS IN THE MIXED LAYER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
NAM/SREF/GFS ARE INDICATING MUCAPE OF UP TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OR
MORE. THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LOW...THOUGH...BECAUSE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY TRAIL
WELL BEHIND THE INSTABILITY AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT....LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE GUSTY NW
FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGHT
DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY...PROVIDING SUNNY
AND SEASONALLY NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
A STACKED LOW MIGHT LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT
WEEK...STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT MAY RESULT IN A FEW
DAYS OF COOL EASTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COULD
LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
THE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF -SHRA AND CEILINGS AROUND 8 TO 10 KFT THIS MORNING...BUT
CLEAR SKIES WILL RETURN LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVLOP BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 73 51 81 45 / 20 0 20 30
INL 83 52 80 39 / 20 0 20 10
BRD 81 53 85 47 / 10 0 20 20
HYR 71 50 81 47 / 20 0 10 40
ASX 70 49 82 46 / 10 0 10 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
354 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. RED FLAG WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY...
CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS OF 850HPA FIELDS SHOW A TIGHT GRADIENT OF
WARMING TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
VORT MAX HAS DROPPED ACROSS MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...AND IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN. THE COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED
RAIN SHOWERS IS LIMITED AND THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 5KFT WILL
LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THIS WAVE TO PRODUCE
THUNDER. LIGHTNING HAS ACCOMPANIED THE FAST MOVING VORT MAX
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. HAVE INTRODUCED
THUNDER TO THE MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE WAVE EXITS THE REGION TO
THE SOUTH BY THE NOON HOUR...GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS AND RAPIDLY FALLING RH
VALUES. THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WITH 850HPA TEMPS IN THE TEENS...WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES
SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH
LOCATIONS IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND
25MPH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 25% WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AS COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT...THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO
CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE BEHAVIOR.
HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND
SPEEDS IN THE MIXED LAYER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
NAM/SREF/GFS ARE INDICATING MUCAPE OF UP TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OR
MORE. THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LOW...THOUGH...BECAUSE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY TRAIL
WELL BEHIND THE INSTABILITY AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT....LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE GUSTY NW
FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGHT
DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY...PROVIDING SUNNY
AND SEASONALLY NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
A STACKED LOW MIGHT LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT
WEEK...STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT MAY RESULT IN A FEW
DAYS OF COOL EASTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COULD
LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE QUICKLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
KBRD. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS THE AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY...BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE INDEED POSSIBLE. THE WEAK SYSTEM WILL PULL OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...LEAVING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 73 51 81 45 / 20 0 20 30
INL 82 52 80 39 / 20 0 20 10
BRD 81 53 85 47 / 10 0 20 20
HYR 71 50 81 47 / 20 0 10 40
ASX 70 49 82 46 / 10 0 10 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP/GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
634 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE
PANHANDLE...MOVING EAST...AS FORECAST BY THE HRRR MODEL. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND POSE A WIND
GUST THREAT. THEY ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY COALESCE ACROSS NRN NEB TONIGHT BUT
THE NAM IS SHOWING MUCH LESS STORM COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAYS MODEL
RUN. THUS...LESS STORM COVERAGE WILL HOLD UP THE PROGRESS OF THE
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SWRN NEB AND
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTN.
THIS IS FARTHER NORTH AND THE GFS SHOWS THE SAME PLACING MORE OF
WESTERN AND NCNTL NEB IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. CONRAD SUGGESTS
DOMINANT RIGHT MOVING SUPER CELLS AT THE ONSET. SHEAR WEAKENS IN THE
LATE EVENING AND A MULTICELLS REGIME TAKES HOLD. 0-1KM HELICITY
INCREASE IN THE EARLY EVENING SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
THE LATEST MODEL BLEND PLUS BIAS CORRECTION SHOWS DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 50S ALONG I-80 SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE MET GUIDANCE SHOWS
MID 50S. NONE OF THESE NUMBERS SUGGEST A SHALLOW MIXING HEIGHT BUT
GIVEN THE FRONT AND HIGH HELICITY AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY DEVELOP.
THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST OF TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STORM COVERAGE BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE 700MB WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS INDICATED IN THE NAM MODEL
LIFTING VERY QUICKLY THROUGH THE FCST AREA.
THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A CLOSED H700MB LOW ACROSS ERN
WY/NERN COLO SUNDAY MORNING AT 12Z. THIS LOW MOVES VERY SLOWLY INTO
THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY. THE NAM SHOWS INSTABILITY LIFTING NORTH INTO
NCNTL NEB SUNDAY AFTN. THE ATM SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STORM MODE
IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLNS FOR MONDAY BUT SOME SORT OF
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD STILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS NEBRASKA OR
WRN IA/MN...NWRN KS OR SRN SD. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A LIKELY CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY EAST CLOSER TO THE
WARM SECTOR.
THERE IS NO REAL CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE FRONT IS
FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS SWRN NEB.
HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
40S.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY AND MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AMPLIFY ACROSS WRN N AMERICA
SUPPORTING A FRESH SHOT OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE TO ISOLATED WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW COLD AIR ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES AT H500MB AROUND -18C AND
H700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 0C OR COLDER. THE ECM SHOWS H500MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -25C THURSDAY MORNING.
BIAS CORRECTION ADDED TO THE MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES PRODUCED
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER AND FROST MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WRN SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PANHANDLE. SKIES WOULD NEED TO CLEAR TO
SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS RISE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING THEN A CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT KVTN
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A FINE LINE JUST TO THE SOUTH. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING OVER NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND
WEST WINDS AT KVTN BECOMING NORTHEAST AND INCREASING OVER NIGHT.
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORIES OVER NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
A FLOOD ADVISORY WITH MINOR FLOODING TO CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER NEAR LEWELLEN. THE CURRENT STAGE AT LEWELLEN IS 7.7
FEET WHICH IS JUST OVER THE FLOOD STAGE OF 7.5 FEET. A SLOW RISE TO
7.9 FEET IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE UPSTREAM AT LISCO. ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
ELEVATED FLOWS WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THIS
TIME...THE SOUTH PLATTE AND MAIN STEM PLATTE RIVER FROM ROSCOE TO
BRADY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
551 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH MID EVENING IN NORTHWEST ND. A HIGH-BASED SHOWER
DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON NEAR 2230 UTC...AND EVEN THOUGH
THE ENTLN TOTAL LIGHTNING PLOT HAS NOT YET SHOWN ANY IN-CLOUD OR
CLOUD-TO-GROUND STRIKES...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MLCAPE
/UP TO 250 J/KG PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS/ IN THAT AREA SUGGEST A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC SHOWS CUMULUS ALL ALONG A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MT SO IT
IS PLAUSIBLE MORE THAN JUST THAT INITIAL SHOWER MAY FORM. THAT
BEING SAID...RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE LIKELY OVERDONE WITH EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT BASED ON THAT MODEL/S RECENT AND LONGER-TERM BIASES.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE CONTINUING THE RED FLAG WARNING IN EAST CENTRAL
ND FOR NOW GIVEN LATE-AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS AND ONGOING FIRES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
THE MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
TODAY AND A COLD FRONT TOMORROW.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING WINDS...HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON TO RISE RAPIDLY INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES HAVE FURTHER EXACERBATED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS. WITH VERY DRY AIR MIXING DOWN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN A
BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY. THIS IS WHAT PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20
MPH...COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY 20 PERCENT OR LESS AND DRY FUELS IS
PRODUCING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
IN NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD HAVE
PASSED TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THESE AREAS MAY ESCAPE CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MAINLY DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WITH A
PERSISTANT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND IS RATHER MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. HOWEVER... PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.
CHANGES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON FOR THE START THE WORK WEEK AS
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST DEEPENS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND AND LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE LOW REMAINING
NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. THE
MAIN AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH.
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT WILL OCCUR FRIDAY ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ005-013-023-
025-037-048-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1233 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS UPDATE. MINOT THE WARM SPOT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S THIS HOUR AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OCCUR AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR 2M RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BCCONSMOS BLEND SHOWS MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT OVER ALL
BUT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CONCUR WITH THIS
IDEA AND HAVE COLLABORATED THESE THOUGHTS WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. THE STRONGEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESIDE IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AT 16KT...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DESPITE MINIMUM RH OF AROUND 17 PERCENT IN THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
ONCE AGAIN...NO REAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. CUMULUS
QUICKLY DWINDLED ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ITS STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEGAN TO DECOUPLE FROM THE SURFACE...LEAVING A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AS OF MID EVENING. TEMPERATURE TRENDS OVERNIGHT MAY BE
A BIT OF A CHALLENGE IN LOCALIZED AREAS LIKE MINOT...WHERE HIGHS
TODAY WERE WARMER AND THE SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND TRAJECTORY THAT
AIDED TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY ALSO HOLD THEM UP TONIGHT...BUT THE
GOING FORECAST IS A REASONABLE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. LATE AFTERNOON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND...MAINLY AROUND DICKINSON AND IN
THE BOTTINEAU AREA AS OF 0005 UTC. HOWEVER...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF NOTE TO THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN TEMPERATURE-
DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40-50 F AT THE SURFACE. THAT IS IN CONTRAST TO
RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS...WHICH APPEAR MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
SIMULATING SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE HAVE STAYED
THE COURSE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH READINGS
IN THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE EDGING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL FURTHER AID IN PRODUCING VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.
A VERY DRY AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY YIELD
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT.
THESE VERY DRY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE MAIN ISSUE IN REACHING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. RECENT MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THE DRY TREND FOR NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN IF A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS DO FORM...A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIKELY EVAPORATE
ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND.
THIS WEEKEND...A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS SETUP IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED EARLY LAST
WEEK. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH...AT LEAST FOR EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK.
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE LOW BY MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS IT CLOSING OFF OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND DEPICTS
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE.
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY
FLOW...TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AT
KBIS AND KMOT UNTIL 14Z-16Z THURSDAY AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
35KT AT 1500FT AGL CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
146 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WARM FRONT SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...COLD FRONT NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AS OF
02Z...GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO UPDATED HOURLY TREND INTO TONIGHT BUT LOWS
STILL LOOK PRETTY GOOD. HRRR CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DECENT POP
GUIDANCE. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE OVERNIGHT...BUT IN REALITY SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF DRY
BEFORE THE WRAP-AROUND ARRIVES WITH THE UPPER LOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS PRETTY MUCH ON THE SAME PAGE NOW
WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT...SLOWLY
SWEEPING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
STALL LATER TONIGHT ON THE LEE SLOPE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY TURNS SEWD THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA
THURSDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO POP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL WITH THE
ANOMALOUSLY LOW FREEZING LEVEL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS.
A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL HAIL AGAIN
POSSIBLE. CAT POPS WITH THIS PRECIP BAND. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
COMING MORE IN LINE...SPECIFIC TIMING WILL STILL BE WITH THE SLOWER
END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. USED THE NAM TO TRY TO INCORPORATE SOME
OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION DETAILS. BUT ONCE WE LOSE THE HEATING...THE
LACK OF SYNOPTIC INSTABILITY HAS THUNDER POTENTIAL RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST.
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW SUGGESTS A DRY SLOT WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE PRECIP WITH THE HANGING FRONT AND
WRAPAROUND SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE UPPER LOW INCREASING OVER THAT
AREA. SO...WILL DECREASE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT...BUT KEEP CAT POPS IN THE EAST. FOR THURSDAY...THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WORKING
WESTWARD IN THE WRAPAROUND FLOW OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT WITH
SOUTHEAST OHIO TRENDING TO IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPS ARE VERY MARGINAL FOR
ANY SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY MORNING...SO WILL OMIT SNOW THERE. WHILE PW`S ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...THE WEAK FLOW AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF SHOWERS AROUND
THE UPPER LOW LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY GIVE SOME CONCERN FOR WATER
PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION FOR THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT UNTIL THE SPECIFIC SETUP OF PRECIP BANDS BECOMES CLEARER.
TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY STAYING AWAY FROM THE NAM TO END THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE SHORT
TERM...WITHOUT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS EVOLUTION FROM PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. WARM FRONT IS QUICK TO FOLLOW THE EXIT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...AND WILL BRING IN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE. 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOW A TIGHTLY PACKED GRADIENT WITH THIS
WARM FRONT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A QUICK BURST OF WARMING IN THE
LATER AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVES IN
WITH THE COLD FRONT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
GOING CONSERVATIVE WITH THE QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS SHOULD
BECOME MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE EXITING OF THE
LOW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL ONLY HAVE MODEST AMOUNTS ON THE FRONT
END OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
NO SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE EXTENDED...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE BEGINNING WITH
THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BARELY CLEAR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES OF THE CWA...AND THEN LIFT BACK AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. IN THE END...WILL NOT SEE ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
OF AIRMASS...WITH FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE ACCUMULATION OF RAIN
THROUGH THE 7 DAY PERIOD...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...WATER CONCERNS ARE
RELATIVELY LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING REGION FOLLOW BY AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH TODAY. A DRY SLOT IS WORKING
ITS WAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THINK THIS WILL CAUSE HTS TO
SCATTER OUT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE CLOUDS
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW ARRIVE AROUND SUNRISE. EVERY OTHER
LOCATION WILL SEE MVFR TO EVEN IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN THE CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR THIS MORNING
AND THEN LIFT BACK TO MVFR LATER IN THE DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF WRAPAROUND SHOWERS AND IFR
CONDITIONS MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H =
HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M =
MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW:
TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 05/05/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M L L
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L L L L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L L L L L L
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH UPPER LEVEL COULD CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1118 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST
SATURDAY...PAVING THE WAY FOR A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING DRIER
AIR FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY FROM EARLIER IN THE
EVENING. THE HRRR AND BOTH THE ARW AND NMM WRF MEMBERS SHOW THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING...BUT SHRINKING IN COVERAGE THE
DEEPER INTO THE EVENING WE GO...AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE OVERNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEG ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE TONIGHT BEFORE FILLING AND GETTING KICKED OUT TO SEA BY
AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WNW ON SAT. THERE MIGHT BE
A LULL IN THE PRECIP ON SAT IN BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS.
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MANAGE TO NUDGE SOME SEASONABLY MILD AIR
IN FROM THE SW. MAXES SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD
HELP GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY AND CAPE...ALLOWING CONVECTION TO
FORM ALONG AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW/FRONT. WILL JUST MENTION
SOME TS IN THE LATE AFTN IN THE W AND CARRY IT INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS FOR THE FIRST PART OF SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.
AGAIN...MOISTURE STILL LACKING AND THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL TO A RELATIVE MINIMUM. LITTLE/NO RISK
FOR BOTH SEVERE AND FLOODING. THE 8H TEMPS FROM 10-12C DOWN TO
AROUND A FEW DEGS EITHER SIDE OF 0C BY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODERATELY STRONG LLVL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING GUSTY NW WINDS
(PEAK GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS) WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SFC RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW PWAT AIR SLIDES OVER THE STATE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR TOO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY LOW
TEMPS EARLY MONDAY - IN THE 30S AND 40S. PATCHY LIGHT FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS 05-12Z MONDAY.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP TO FORM/ADVECT A WARM
FRONT NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN MTNS OF THE
STATE...AND WILL PERSIST AT ABOUT THE SAME AREAL COVERAGE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CHC FOR SHOWERS (AND SCATTERED TSRA) INCREASES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SWRLY LLJ TRANSPORTS BETTER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.
CHC FOR PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA WILL PEAK
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BEFORE THE SFC FRONT BEGINS TO OCCLUDE
AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL.
LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND...NRN STREAM ENERGY WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME JETLETS TO ITS SOUTH WILL BRING LOW CHCS FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA. TEMPS WILL START OUT
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM INTO...OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OVR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...CAUSING
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA WITH THE FOCUS OF
REMAINING RAIN OVR SE PA. HOWEVER...STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND CIGS SHOULD FALL OVERNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS. VFR CIG STILL
NOTED AT KBFD AS OF 03Z...BUT MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DROP TO
MVFR BY ARND 04Z. BOTH SREF AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST IFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT AT KMDT/KLNS...POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT
KJST/KAOO/KUNV AND UNLIKELY AT KBFD/KIPT.
REMNANTS OF LOW PRES WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA AND RESIDUAL STRATUS
DECK WILL LIKELY LIFT/BREAK UP BY AFTN DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING. MDL SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY SAT AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE
REGION SAT EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA AND POSSIBLE BRIEF
VIS REDUCTIONS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1009 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST
SATURDAY...PAVING THE WAY FOR A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING DRIER
AIR FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY FROM EARLIER IN THE
EVENING. THE HRRR AND BOTH THE ARW AND NMM WRF MEMBERS SHOW THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING...BUT SHRINKING IN COVERAGE THE
DEEPER INTO THE EVENING WE GO...AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE OVERNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEG ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE TONIGHT BEFORE FILLING AND GETTING KICKED OUT TO SEA BY
AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WNW ON SAT. THERE MIGHT BE
A LULL IN THE PRECIP ON SAT IN BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS.
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MANAGE TO NUDGE SOME SEASONABLY MILD AIR
IN FROM THE SW. MAXES SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD
HELP GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY AND CAPE...ALLOWING CONVECTION TO
FORM ALONG AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW/FRONT. WILL JUST MENTION
SOME TS IN THE LATE AFTN IN THE W AND CARRY IT INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS FOR THE FIRST PART OF SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.
AGAIN...MOISTURE STILL LACKING AND THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL TO A RELATIVE MINIMUM. LITTLE/NO RISK
FOR BOTH SEVERE AND FLOODING. THE 8H TEMPS FROM 10-12C DOWN TO
AROUND A FEW DEGS EITHER SIDE OF 0C BY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODERATELY STRONG LLVL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING GUSTY NW WINDS
(PEAK GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS) WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SFC RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW PWAT AIR SLIDES OVER THE STATE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR TOO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY LOW
TEMPS EARLY MONDAY - IN THE 30S AND 40S. PATCHY LIGHT FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS 05-12Z MONDAY.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP TO FORM/ADVECT A WARM
FRONT NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN MTNS OF THE
STATE...AND WILL PERSIST AT ABOUT THE SAME AREAL COVERAGE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CHC FOR SHOWERS (AND SCATTERED TSRA) INCREASES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SWRLY LLJ TRANSPORTS BETTER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.
CHC FOR PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA WILL PEAK
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BEFORE THE SFC FRONT BEGINS TO OCCLUDE
AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL.
LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND...NRN STREAM ENERGY WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME JETLETS TO ITS SOUTH WILL BRING LOW CHCS FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA. TEMPS WILL START OUT
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM INTO...OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OVR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...CAUSING
RAIN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA WITH THE FOCUS OF
REMAINING SHRA OVR SE PA. HOWEVER...STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND CIGS SHOULD FALL OVERNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS. VFR CIG STILL
NOTED AT KBFD AS OF 00Z...BUT MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DROP TO
MVFR BY 01Z. BOTH SREF AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST IFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT AT KMDT/KLNS...POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT
KBFD/KJST/KUNV AND UNLIKELY AT KIPT.
REMNANTS OF LOW PRES WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA AND RESIDUAL STRATUS
DECK WILL LIKELY LIFT/BREAK UP BY AFTN DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING. MDL SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY SAT AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE
REGION SAT EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA AND POSSIBLE BRIEF
VIS REDUCTIONS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
816 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST
SATURDAY...PAVING THE WAY FOR A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING DRIER
AIR FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER SPIRAL BAND OF BROKEN SHOWERS IS ROTATING WESTWARD OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PA AS OF 7 PM. THE HRRR AND BOTH THE ARW AND
NMM WRF MEMBERS SHOW THE SHOWERS PERSISTING AT LEAST THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING WITH SOME HINT AT DRYING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEG ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE TONIGHT BEFORE FILLING AND GETTING KICKED OUT TO SEA BY
AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WNW ON SAT. THERE MIGHT BE
A LULL IN THE PRECIP ON SAT IN BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS.
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MANAGE TO NUDGE SOME SEASONABLY MILD AIR
IN FROM THE SW. MAXES SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD
HELP GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY AND CAPE...ALLOWING CONVECTION TO
FORM ALONG AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW/FRONT. WILL JUST MENTION
SOME TS IN THE LATE AFTN IN THE W AND CARRY IT INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS FOR THE FIRST PART OF SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.
AGAIN...MOISTURE STILL LACKING AND THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL TO A RELATIVE MINIMUM. LITTLE/NO RISK
FOR BOTH SEVERE AND FLOODING. THE 8H TEMPS FROM 10-12C DOWN TO
AROUND A FEW DEGS EITHER SIDE OF 0C BY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODERATELY STRONG LLVL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING GUSTY NW WINDS
(PEAK GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS) WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SFC RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW PWAT AIR SLIDES OVER THE STATE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR TOO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY LOW
TEMPS EARLY MONDAY - IN THE 30S AND 40S. PATCHY LIGHT FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS 05-12Z MONDAY.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP TO FORM/ADVECT A WARM
FRONT NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN MTNS OF THE
STATE...AND WILL PERSIST AT ABOUT THE SAME AREAL COVERAGE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CHC FOR SHOWERS (AND SCATTERED TSRA) INCREASES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SWRLY LLJ TRANSPORTS BETTER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.
CHC FOR PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA WILL PEAK
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BEFORE THE SFC FRONT BEGINS TO OCCLUDE
AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL.
LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND...NRN STREAM ENERGY WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME JETLETS TO ITS SOUTH WILL BRING LOW CHCS FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA. TEMPS WILL START OUT
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM INTO...OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OVR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...CAUSING
RAIN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA WITH THE FOCUS OF
REMAINING SHRA OVR SE PA. HOWEVER...STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND CIGS SHOULD FALL OVERNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS. VFR CIG STILL
NOTED AT KBFD AS OF 00Z...BUT MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DROP TO
MVFR BY 01Z. BOTH SREF AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST IFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT AT KMDT/KLNS...POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT
KBFD/KJST/KUNV AND UNLIKELY AT KIPT.
REMNANTS OF LOW PRES WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA AND RESIDUAL STRATUS
DECK WILL LIKELY LIFT/BREAK UP BY AFTN DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING. MDL SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY SAT AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE
REGION SAT EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA AND POSSIBLE BRIEF
VIS REDUCTIONS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
736 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST
SATURDAY...PAVING THE WAY FOR A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING DRIER
AIR FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER SPIRAL BAND OF BROKEN SHOWERS IS ROTATING WESTWARD OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PA AS OF 7 PM. THE HRRR AND BOTH THE ARW AND
NMM WRF MEMBERS SHOW THE SHOWERS PERSISTING AT LEAST THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING WITH SOME HINT AT DRYING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEG ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE TONIGHT BEFORE FILLING AND GETTING KICKED OUT TO SEA BY
AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WNW ON SAT. THERE MIGHT BE
A LULL IN THE PRECIP ON SAT IN BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS.
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MANAGE TO NUDGE SOME SEASONABLY MILD AIR
IN FROM THE SW. MAXES SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD
HELP GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY AND CAPE...ALLOWING CONVECTION TO
FORM ALONG AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW/FRONT. WILL JUST MENTION
SOME TS IN THE LATE AFTN IN THE W AND CARRY IT INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS FOR THE FIRST PART OF SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.
AGAIN...MOISTURE STILL LACKING AND THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL TO A RELATIVE MINIMUM. LITTLE/NO RISK
FOR BOTH SEVERE AND FLOODING. THE 8H TEMPS FROM 10-12C DOWN TO
AROUND A FEW DEGS EITHER SIDE OF 0C BY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODERATELY STRONG LLVL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING GUSTY NW WINDS
(PEAK GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS) WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SFC RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW PWAT AIR SLIDES OVER THE STATE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR TOO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY LOW
TEMPS EARLY MONDAY - IN THE 30S AND 40S. PATCHY LIGHT FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS 05-12Z MONDAY.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP TO FORM/ADVECT A WARM
FRONT NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN MTNS OF THE
STATE...AND WILL PERSIST AT ABOUT THE SAME AREAL COVERAGE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CHC FOR SHOWERS (AND SCATTERED TSRA) INCREASES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SWRLY LLJ TRANSPORTS BETTER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.
CHC FOR PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA WILL PEAK
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BEFORE THE SFC FRONT BEGINS TO OCCLUDE
AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL.
LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND...NRN STREAM ENERGY WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME JETLETS TO ITS SOUTH WILL BRING LOW CHCS FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA. TEMPS WILL START OUT
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM INTO...OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OVR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT...CAUSING RAIN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
HOWEVER...STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND CIGS SHOULD FALL
OVERNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS. VFR CIG STILL NOTED AT KBFD AS OF
22Z...BUT MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DROP TO MVFR BY 00Z. BOTH SREF
AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AT
KMDT/KLNS...POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KJST/KUNV AND UNLIKELY AT KIPT.
REMNANTS OF LOW PRES WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA AND RESIDUAL STRATUS
DECK WILL LIKELY LIFT/BREAK UP BY AFTN DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING. BOTH MOS AND SREF SUPPORT THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDS BY SAT AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION SAT
EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA AND POSSIBLE BRIEF VIS
REDUCTIONS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY-TUESDAY
SUN-MON...VFR/NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE-WED...CHC OF SHOWERS/MVFR PSBL.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
747 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MOTHERS DAY LOOKS
MAINLY DRY WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS EXIT THE SW MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BULK OF AREA
STAYING DRY THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MAIN FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS
THIS AFTN SHOULD BE OVER WESTERN 1/3 OF CENTRAL PA WITH LOWER PCPN
PROBS IN THE EAST. THE MAX PCPN PROBS/HIGHEST POPS WILL FLIP TO
THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INCREASES TO THE NORTH OF DEEP CLOSED LOW REACHING THE NC/VA COAST
BY 12Z FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE FILLING AND EVENTUALLY GETTING KICKED OUT
TO SEA BY ANOTHER ANOMALOUS TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER SERN CANADA ON
SAT. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE POINTING TOWARD AN AREA OF STEADY
MODERATE RAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION GIVEN
COLD TEMPS ALOFT/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. AN INCREASE IN ATLC
ONSHORE FLOW VIA ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS AT 850MB WILL ALSO BE IN
PLACE. PCPN INTENSITY SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE INTO SATURDAY AS
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
(DUE TO TIME OF DAY) WHICH SHOULD KEEP QPF AMTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ISOLD DIURNAL SHOWERS REMAIN
A LOW PROB OVER THE NORTHERN PA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY RETURNS NWD AS A WARM FRONT WITH WARMER AIR AND RISK
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE LOW CIGS CAUSED THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OVR CENTRAL PA. AT 12Z...STRATUS COVERS ALL
OF CENTRAL PA WITH CIGS BTWN 500 AND 1500 FT.
IMPROVING CONDS INDICATED BY ALL MDL DATA LATER TODAY...AS
DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING CAUSE CIGS TO RISE. BY
AFTN...LATEST HRRR AND SREF SUPPORT LIKELY VFR CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PA AND POSSIBLE VFR CONDS AT KBFD/KMDT/KLNS.
HOWEVER...SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF
VIS REDUCTION IN THOSE AREAS.
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY CAUSE CIGS TO
FALL AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CONDS BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN LIKELY. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT NIGHT.
SAT...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. EVENING SHRA POSS.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
700 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MOTHERS DAY LOOKS
MAINLY DRY WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS EXIT THE SW MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BULK OF AREA
STAYING DRY THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MAIN FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS
THIS AFTN SHOULD BE OVER WESTERN 1/3 OF CENTRAL PA WITH LOWER PCPN
PROBS IN THE EAST. THE MAX PCPN PROBS/HIGHEST POPS WILL FLIP TO
THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INCREASES TO THE NORTH OF DEEP CLOSED LOW REACHING THE NC/VA COAST
BY 12Z FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE FILLING AND EVENTUALLY GETTING KICKED OUT
TO SEA BY ANOTHER ANOMALOUS TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER SERN CANADA ON
SAT. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE POINTING TOWARD AN AREA OF STEADY
MODERATE RAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION GIVEN
COLD TEMPS ALOFT/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. AN INCREASE IN ATLC
ONSHORE FLOW VIA ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS AT 850MB WILL ALSO BE IN
PLACE. PCPN INTENSITY SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE INTO SATURDAY AS
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
(DUE TO TIME OF DAY) WHICH SHOULD KEEP QPF AMTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ISOLD DIURNAL SHOWERS REMAIN
A LOW PROB OVER THE NORTHERN PA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY RETURNS NWD AS A WARM FRONT WITH WARMER AIR AND RISK
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA WILL BRING A FEW
LINGERING -SHRA TO KJST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE LOW CIGS CAUSED THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. AT 09Z...STRATUS COVERS ALL OF CENTRAL PA WITH CIGS BTWN 500
AND 1000 FT.
IMPROVING CONDS INDICATED BY ALL MDL DATA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...AS DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING CAUSE CIGS TO RISE.
BY AFTN...LATEST HRRR AND SREF SUPPORT LIKELY VFR CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PA AND POSSIBLE VFR CONDS AT KBFD/KMDT/KLNS.
HOWEVER...SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF VIS
REDUCTION IN THOSE AREAS.
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY CAUSE CIGS TO
FALL AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CONDS BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN LIKELY. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT NIGHT.
SAT...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. EVENING SHRA POSS.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
526 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MOTHERS DAY LOOKS
MAINLY DRY WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO THE
WV/MD PANHANDLES /IDI-CBE TO OKV LINE/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT
WWD EARLY THIS MORNING. WE HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA LAST NIGHT /WHICH
ALSO HAPPENS TO BE ONE OF THE DRIEST SPOTS IN PA OVER THE LAST
30-60+ DAYS/ WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES PER THE SLGT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
THE CURRENT DAY 1 SLGT RISK HAS NOW SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
INTO WV/VA WHERE FFG VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER AND HIRES GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS MORE ROBUST QPF AMOUNTS.
THE MAIN FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS TODAY SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERN 1/3 OF PA. EASTERN AREAS SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH PATCHY DZ/FOG FOLLOWED BY A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE
OF SCT P.M. SHOWERS. THE MAX PCPN PROBS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES
TO THE NORTH OF DEEP CLOSED LOW REACHING THE NC/VA COAST BY 12Z
FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE FILLING AND EVENTUALLY GETTING KICKED OUT
TO SEA BY ANOTHER ANOMALOUS TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER SERN CANADA ON
SAT. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE POINTING TOWARD AN AREA OF STEADY
MODERATE RAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION GIVEN
COLD TEMPS ALOFT/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. AN INCREASE IN ATLC
ONSHORE FLOW VIA ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS AT 850MB WILL ALSO BE IN
PLACE. PCPN INTENSITY SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE INTO SATURDAY AS
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
(DUE TO TIME OF DAY) WHICH SHOULD KEEP QPF AMTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ISOLD DIURNAL SHOWERS REMAIN
A LOW PROB OVER THE NORTHERN PA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY RETURNS NWD AS A WARM FRONT WITH WARMER AIR AND RISK
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA WILL BRING A FEW
LINGERING -SHRA TO KJST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE LOW CIGS CAUSED THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. AT 09Z...STRATUS COVERS ALL OF CENTRAL PA WITH CIGS BTWN 500
AND 1000 FT.
IMPROVING CONDS INDICATED BY ALL MDL DATA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...AS DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING CAUSE CIGS TO RISE.
BY AFTN...LATEST HRRR AND SREF SUPPORT LIKELY VFR CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PA AND POSSIBLE VFR CONDS AT KBFD/KMDT/KLNS.
HOWEVER...SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF VIS
REDUCTION IN THOSE AREAS.
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY CAUSE CIGS TO
FALL AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CONDS BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN LIKELY. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT NIGHT.
SAT...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. EVENING SHRA POSS.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
233 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATE EVENING RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES EARLIER BROKEN LINE OF
PERSISTENT SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO NORTHEAST
PA HAS DISSIPATED...WHILE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED IN
DEFORMATION FROM CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE MD/WV PANHANDLES WNW INTO
WEST CENTRAL PA. THE HRRR TAKES THIS LINE AND TRACKS IT EASTWARD
WHILE DAMPENING IT OVERNIGHT OVER THE LAURELS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SHRA AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE.
THIS IS CLOSE TO THE SCENARIO PAINTED BY THE DAY SHIFT AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN POPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER WAS NEEDED THIS EVENING.
TOUCHED UP POPS OVER SOUTHEAST PA WHICH HAD THE EASTERN EXTENT OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL SLIGHTLY TOO FAR EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATEST PCPN RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTING NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR
SENSIBLE WX ELEMENTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H5 LOW REACHING ITS FURTHEST SOUTHERN
EXTEND THU NIGHT OVER NC WILL THEN LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI INTO SAT. BIGGEST CHANGE IS SHARPENING OF
PRECIP FIELD FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...WITH 24-HOUR QPF POTENTIAL
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT OF AROUND 1.00 INCH. WPC HAS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2. UPPED POPS
AND QPF AMOUNTS NOTICEABLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PROBABILITY.
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AFTER A WARMER AND MAINLY DRY DAY ON
SAT...THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR ANOTHER RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-
MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT AGAIN...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE WORK WEEK AHEAD
OF NEXT RAIN CHANCES MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA WILL BRING A
FEW LINGERING -SHRA TO THAT PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOW CIGS CAUSED THE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. AT 06Z...STRATUS COVERS ALL OF
CENTRAL PA WITH CIGS CLOSE TO 1 KFT. A BIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL LIKELY CAUSE CIGS TO FALL FURTHER...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS
EXPECTED TOWARD DAWN.
IMPROVING CONDS INDICATED BY ALL MDL DATA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...AS DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING CAUSE CIGS TO
RISE. LATEST HRRR AND SREF SUPPORT LIKELY VFR ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA BY AFTN AND POSSIBLE VFR CONDS AT KBFD/KMDT/KLNS.
HOWEVER...SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF
VIS REDUCTION IN THOSE AREAS.
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY CAUSE CIGS TO
FALL AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CONDS BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN LIKELY. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT NIGHT.
SAT...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. EVENING SHRA POSS.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
452 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS A
DEEP UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST TO
OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH ON MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EXPANDS
AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OF 445 PM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST RAP FIELDS
SHOW THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER THE LOWER PIEDMONT PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST DEEP LAYER DPVA FORCING OCCURRING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL TRANSIT THE LOWER PIEDMONT
AND THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WHILE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL THEN DIMINISH OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...AN ADDITIONAL SPOKE OF MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL APPROACH
THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST
UPDATE WILL REFLECT THESE POP TRENDS. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GRAUPEL OR VERY SMALL HAIL WITH LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES.
OTHERWISE...THE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST
OVERNIGHT...AND THE BEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE TO OUR EAST.
LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
FROM THE N ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. INTERESTINGLY...FAIRLY
WELL-DEFINED ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW THRU THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND THAT APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
THE QPF PRODUCED BY VARIOUS GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE A CATEGORY
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...AND SOME SNOW IS LIKELY TO MIX IN ONCE AGAIN
ON THE HIGHEST MTN RIDGES. NO APPRECIABLE ACCUM IS EXPECTED. POPS
DIMINISH IN THE EARLY MRNG HOURS. THE SETUP REMAINS SIMILAR FROM
THERE THRU THE DAY FRIDAY...AS THE LOW REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLIGHTLY POORER WITH THE BETTER COLD AIR
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT TEMPS/DEWPTS REBOUND BY 5-7 DEGREES...AND
THESE SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY STILL WILL DEVELOP. CHANCES OVERALL
ARE LESSER WITH MODEL QPF BEING LESS WIDESPREAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...ONE MORE POCKET OF COLD AIR ROTATES AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WARMER MID
LEVEL AIR MOVES IN ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO KEEP ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THERE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT TRAILING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRUSH THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY CREATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. FINALLY...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW MOVES EAST.
SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY EVEN AS HEIGHTS RISE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR. TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS ON SATURDAY THEN RISE TO NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED W TO E ACROSS THE REGION
UNDERNEATH FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SARGASSO SEA
INDUCES WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND TO GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S DURING THIS TIME AS WELL AND
WITH THE INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS LESS
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT COVERAGE THROUGH MID-WEEK WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS
LARGELY TO BE THE RESULT OF STRONGER PERTURBATIONS IN THE WSW FLOW
ALOFT ENHANCING OVERALL FORCING IN THE GFS COMPARED TO THE FAIRLY
BENIGN ECMWF SOLUTION. THE FORECAST THEREFORE REFLECTS A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE AS THE PATTERN CERTAINLY WARRANTS SLIGHT CHANCE
COVERAGE EAST AND CHANCE COVERAGE WEST.
AN OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DROPS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS AND A FEW LOBES OF
VORTICITY ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS AND INTO VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS NATURE OF THIS PATTERN...AGAIN THE GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW. WHILE POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO LATE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE
ANTICIPATED BETTER FORCING ALOFT...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
WARRANT MORE AGGRESSIVE COVERAGE ATTM. FOR NOW...THESE FEATURES DO
LITTLE TO CHANGE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE EXPECT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE PIEDMONT
WILL MAINTAIN GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH BASED SCT
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES FROM THE N LATER THIS EVENING AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO MORE ROBUST AND WIDESPREAD SHRA AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RESTRICTED
VSBY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED GUSTS WITH THE SHRA EXISTS BUT
HARD TO PIN DOWN FOR INCLUSION IN TEMPO. CHANCE OF SHRA DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. VIRTUALLY ALL CIG GUIDANCE INDICATES BASES WILL REMAIN
VFR. WINDS WILL STAY IN THE NW QUAD THRU THE PERIOD...BACKING TOWARD
W FOR A TIME TONIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES NWD ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
THOUGH THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW WILL BE LESS FRIDAY...LAPSE RATES ARE
STILL SUFFICIENT TO EXPECT GOOD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO RETURN.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY AS AT KCLT...BUT WITH PRECIP CHANCES SOMEWHAT
LOWER ACRS KGSP/KGMU/KAND PER CONSENSUS OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. KAVL
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BRISK NWLY GUSTS INTO THE EVENING...AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...SUGGESTING A SMALL CHANCE
OF AN MVFR CIG EXISTS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...A LOW CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST FRI AFTN MAINLY
ACROSS THE NC SITES...BEFORE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. DRY
HIGH PRES RETURNS SATURDAY...WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH THRU SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 92% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG/JMP
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...HG/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1041 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL
USHER IN MORE COOL AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES DOWN
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THEN MOVES AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH ON MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EXPANDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...CENTER OF 500MB LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED INVOF THE
KY/VA/TN INTERSECTION...AND IS STILL PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA THIS AFTERNOON. ONE OF THE VORT LOBES
CIRCLING THE LOW PRODUCED SHOWERS OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING SO FAR...BUT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST THE SHOWERS
ARE FOLLOWING SUIT. A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS OVER EAST TN AND THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE NC MTNS
AND THEN INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND WRN UPSTATE LATER
THIS AFTN. HRRR AND OTHER CAMS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SCT SHRA/TSRA
CONCENTRATING IN THE LATTER AREAS DURING PEAK HEATING. I REVISED
POP TRENDS INTO TONIGHT ACCORDINGLY.
NAM INDICATES THAT MIXED LAYER WILL LIKELY EXCEED 10 KFT ACROSS
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEP MIXING COMBINED WITH
A 4 TO 5 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS BY MID
MORNING...REMAINING INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MTNS. 25-30
KT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MTNS TODAY. I WILL INCLUDE A
HEADLINE FOR CAUTION ON MTN LAKES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CAMS TO THE SPECTRAL
INDICATE THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY...MTNS...AND I-40 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NAM
SHOWS A FIELD OF 300-500 J/KG CAPE DEVELOPING DURING THE HEAT
OF THE AFTERNOON...YIELDING SMALL HAIL PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH MID 50S NEAR KAVL TO LOW TO MID 60S ALONG AND
EAST OF I-85.
TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. OMEGA BLOCK WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CONUS AS THE
EASTERN CLOSED LOW LIFTS NORTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE
MTNS AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE UPPER LOW IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY ON FRIDAY THAT THE MID LEVEL COOL POOL WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHILE WEAK VORT CENTERS DROP DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS....WHILE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FORCE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
OUT...THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN A REBOUND AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...AND THEN GET
BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
PRECIP ENCROACHING ON THE NRN ZONES ON SATURDAY AND THIS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON OUR NRN FRINGES BASED ON NEIGHBORING FCSTS. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL START CREEPING UP FROM THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT SAGS
DOWN TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE A CHANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT FAVORS A RETURN TO SOMETHING MORE
TYPICAL OF MID/LATE SPRING. THE DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST
SHOULD LIFT OUT ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE TO MOVE IN FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HELP LIFT A
SURFACE BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND SET THE
STAGE FOR TEMPS TO RETURN TO SOMETHING ON THE ORDER OF FIVE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FROM THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK ONWARD...THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE UNDER A WSW OR NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THAT WILL PROVIDE FOR RETURN MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS THE EXTENT OF ANY DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CONVECTION FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THE FCST CONTINUES TO REFLECT
A MORE ECMWF-LIKE SOLUTION WITH THE PRECIP CHANCE OVER THE MTNS...
WHILE THE GFS HAS A CHANCE ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE MID LEVELS...THE CORE OF
A CLOSED LOW WILL PASS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON...PASSING EAST THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THIS
MORNING...SCT SHRAS WILL REMAIN NEAR KHKY AND KCLT DURING THE EARLY
DAYLIGHT HOURS. AT THE SFC...THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE NC OUTERBANKS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE THE REGION
WITH NW WINDS AND DEEP MIXING. MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM AS DEEP AS 10
KFT APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL FEATURE GUSTS FOR ALL
SITES 3 TO 4 HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL
FORCING MAY YIELD SCT SHRAS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A PROB30 OR TEMPO. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
WEAKEN TO 6 TO 10 KTS BETWEEN 23Z TO 2Z.
AT KAVL...NNW WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS INTO THE MID 20S KTS. SCT SHRAS MAY OCCASIONALLY PASS
OVER THE TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR VIS AND CEILINGS.
GUSTY NNW WINDS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MID EVENING...THEN SETTLE TO
10KTS TO 14 KTS BY 3Z.
OUTLOOK...THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY LINGER BRINGING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC
SITES. DRY HIGH PRES RETURNS SATURDAY...WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THRU SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 82%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1043 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
WEAK SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE A
TOUGH CALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HUMIDITY TIME
SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BELOW ABOUT 750MB...WITH OBVIOUSLY WELL MIXED CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON ADDING TO THE DRYNESS. THE
FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT THIS
EVENING THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF PURE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE
WIND SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK HOWEVER...NOTED WITH 30 KNOTS AT 925MB AND
ONLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT 700MB. INTERESTINGLY...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE I
90 AND HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDORS. THE HIGHWAY 14 CONVECTION WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER
THE I 90 CONVECTION IS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AM SKEPTICAL ABOUT
THE I 90 CONVECTION DEVELOPING SO EARLY...AS IT IS LIKELY KEYING OFF
OF THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. INDEED...THE HRRR IS TRYING TO SHOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING RIGHT NOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND THERE IS
NOTHING THERE. IT IS THAT CONVECTION WHICH IT THEN EXTENDS EASTWARD
ALONG I 90. SO FOR NOW ADDED ONLY VERY LOW POPS TO THE I 90 CORRIDOR
VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
HRRR SCENARIO...AND KEPT THE HIGHER SCATTERED POPS IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL FRONT. CHANCE OR SCATTERED POPS SHOULD
THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN CHANCES ARE
FAIRLY SKITTISH AT ANY GIVEN POINT LOCATION THAT YOU WILL ACTUALLY
GET WET. IN ADDITION...STABILITY INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE
POINT WHERE BY SATURDAY...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY
LEFT IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SMALL POPS LINGER UNDER A MID DECK
OF CLOUDS.
FOR TEMPERATURES...LATEST LOWS ARE LITTLE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS...WITH UPPER 40S IN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES...TO NEAR 55 IN
SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE IA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER...
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT CHANCES NOT REAL HIGH. EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN BUT BE OFFSET A BIT BY CLOUD COVER AT NIGHT.
LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 40S...CLOSER TO 40 ALONG HIGHWAY 14 AND
CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
THICKER CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE
MID 60S...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 14.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTH SO SUSPECT THAT THIS WILL BE THE
PERIOD OF TIME FOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS TIME NOT ENOUGH SHEAR OR INSTABILITY TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER BUT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.
DIURNAL RANGE NOT TOO WIDE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON MONDAY.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP TROUGHING IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL SPELL COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WHILE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE DEEPER TROUGH IS FAIRLY
HIGH...CONFIDENCE ON THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF ENERGY ARE LOWER THUS
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH. THERE
SHOULD BE A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS TIME JUST A PROBLEM OF TIMING. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS ONLY A
SHOWERS MENTION AND START ADDING IN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK
ABOUT...PRETTY MUCH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. OVERALL
NOT A REAL NICE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR MID MAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 08/06Z. EXCEPTION WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BEHIND CDFNT THROUGH 15Z ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THESE HIGH BASED STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY LOCAL AND
BRIEF VISIBILITIES 3-5SM.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
616 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
WEAK SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE A
TOUGH CALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HUMIDITY TIME
SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BELOW ABOUT 750MB...WITH OBVIOUSLY WELL MIXED CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON ADDING TO THE DRYNESS. THE
FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT THIS
EVENING THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF PURE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE
WIND SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK HOWEVER...NOTED WITH 30 KNOTS AT 925MB AND
ONLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT 700MB. INTERESTINGLY...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE I
90 AND HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDORS. THE HIGHWAY 14 CONVECTION WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER
THE I 90 CONVECTION IS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AM SKEPTICAL ABOUT
THE I 90 CONVECTION DEVELOPING SO EARLY...AS IT IS LIKELY KEYING OFF
OF THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. INDEED...THE HRRR IS TRYING TO SHOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING RIGHT NOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND THERE IS
NOTHING THERE. IT IS THAT CONVECTION WHICH IT THEN EXTENDS EASTWARD
ALONG I 90. SO FOR NOW ADDED ONLY VERY LOW POPS TO THE I 90 CORRIDOR
VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
HRRR SCENARIO...AND KEPT THE HIGHER SCATTERED POPS IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL FRONT. CHANCE OR SCATTERED POPS SHOULD
THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN CHANCES ARE
FAIRLY SKITTISH AT ANY GIVEN POINT LOCATION THAT YOU WILL ACTUALLY
GET WET. IN ADDITION...STABILITY INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE
POINT WHERE BY SATURDAY...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY
LEFT IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SMALL POPS LINGER UNDER A MID DECK
OF CLOUDS.
FOR TEMPERATURES...LATEST LOWS ARE LITTLE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS...WITH UPPER 40S IN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES...TO NEAR 55 IN
SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE IA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER...
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT CHANCES NOT REAL HIGH. EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN BUT BE OFFSET A BIT BY CLOUD COVER AT NIGHT.
LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 40S...CLOSER TO 40 ALONG HIGHWAY 14 AND
CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
THICKER CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE
MID 60S...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 14.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTH SO SUSPECT THAT THIS WILL BE THE
PERIOD OF TIME FOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS TIME NOT ENOUGH SHEAR OR INSTABILITY TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER BUT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.
DIURNAL RANGE NOT TOO WIDE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON MONDAY.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP TROUGHING IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL SPELL COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WHILE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE DEEPER TROUGH IS FAIRLY
HIGH...CONFIDENCE ON THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF ENERGY ARE LOWER THUS
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH. THERE
SHOULD BE A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS TIME JUST A PROBLEM OF TIMING. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS ONLY A
SHOWERS MENTION AND START ADDING IN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK
ABOUT...PRETTY MUCH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. OVERALL
NOT A REAL NICE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR MID MAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 08/00Z. EXCEPTION WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND BEHIND CDFNT MOVING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH 07/15Z. THESE HIGH BASED STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY
LOCAL AND BRIEF GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AND VISIBILITIES 3-5SM.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
740 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING TO ALONG THE NC/VA COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING....THEN TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST OF PA/NY BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT THURSDAY...
GETTING SOME CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE
PIEDMONT...WITH SBCAPES OF 100-200 J/KG. PER HRRR ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING OVER THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF
VA/NC.
PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION...
VERY WET SCENARIO SHAPING UP TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALREADY SEEING
RAIN EXPANDING ACROSS THE NW NC PIEDMONT INTO THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT OF VA AT 320 AM.
QUESTION TODAY IS NOT IF IT IS GOING TO RAIN...IT IS WHERE WILL AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAINS SET UP...AND HOW HEAVY WILL THE RAIN BE...IN TERMS
OF AMOUNTS AND MOVEMENT. MODELS SEEM TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A
CORRIDOR OF STRONG LOW LVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH PERIODS OF
UPPER DIFLUENCE FAVOR A SE WV TO SOUTHSIDE VA REGION FOR STEADIER
RAINS...HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A ROANOKE TO SOUTH
BOSTON LINE. STILL IFFY AS TO HOW MUCH FALLS AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT.
AT THE MOMENT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES...THOUGH AM
CONCERNED SINCE SOME OF THE RIVERS IN THE PIEDMONT HAVE BEEN RUNNING
HIGH...WITH SOUTH BOSTON ALONG THE DAN RIVER STILL ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE...THAT SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR AGAIN LATER TODAY INTO
FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL HIT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
POTENTIAL STREAM OR RIVER FLOODING. FORECAST RAINFALL TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO JUST OVER AN INCH FROM LEWISBURG WV SOUTHEAST
TO DANVILLE AND POINTS NORTHEAST TO LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER
THE NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS.
AS FAR AS CONVECTION/THUNDER GOES...IT APPEARS CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER SFC TEMPS WILL LIMIT LOW LVL LAPSE RATES AND THERMODYNAMIC
INSTABILITY...THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE THERE ALONG WITH
COOLER AIR ALOFT THAT POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL MAY EXIST WITH
ISOLATED LIGHTNING. THE CONFIDENCE IN HAVING THIS IN THE FORECAST IS
LOW...THINKING ANY THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED AND ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER WILL BE SOUTH AND WELL EAST OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
WE ARE GOING TO SEE SHOWERS/RAIN WORK IN A NW TO SE PATTERN THEN
PIVOT TO AN EAST-WEST AXIS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST OF US TONIGHT...THE SHOWERS SHOULD SPIN AROUND TO
MORE A N-S AXIS WITH BANDS SETTING UP ALONG AND WEST OF A BUCKINGHAM
TO BOONE LINE BY EVENING WHILE HEAVIER SHOWERS WORK EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP POPS HIGH THOUGH QPF WILL BE
LOW...GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
NEEDLESS TO SAY IT WILL BE COOL TODAY WITH POTENTIAL RECORD COOL
HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING BROKEN MAINLY AT BLUEFIELD...BLACKSBURG AND
ROANOKE. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WEST...TO MID TO UPPER 50S EAST.
WITH CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD BE SLOW TO FALL..WITH
MIXING OCCURRING AS SFC LOW OFF THE COAST SHIFTS NORTH. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE NC MTNS/FAR SW VA INTO
SE WV...TO MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD
AND WEAKEN DURING FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD
SHOULD DRIFT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
SURFACE LOW THAT IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE MID-
ATLANTIC. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, 500 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW DEPARTS AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
HEADS EASTWARD. LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT, BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL NOT LAST LONG IN THE MOUNTAINS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY,
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHER POPS WERE
INSERTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE COLD FRONT STALLING OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY, BUT THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS CARRIES LOWER QPF THAN THE ECMWF. WHILE
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LOWER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES,
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD TRUMP THESE VARIABLES TO ALLOW A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CAPE,
SO THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. IF DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHICAL
EFFECTS CAN OVERCOME THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY, THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DRIFTS EAST IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AS FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY EVOLVES INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.
A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL DROP SOUTH SUNDAY INTO OUR AREA
AND STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING AS A
WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING OR
AMOUNTS ATTM. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 77 EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY...OUR AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH AND COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST IN
THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY...THEN
MODERATE INTO MIDWEEK. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOL DOWN IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LOOKING AT POOR FLYING WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW
PIVOTS FROM ERN KY TO THE VA TIDEWATER THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM LWB-DAN AND NORTHEAST TO
LYH. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER BUT OVERALL THREAT WILL STAY
SOUTHEAST OF DANVILLE/LYH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WITH ANY DRYING...RAINFALL ENDING TRENDS...EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO
DROP BELOW 1KFT AND 3-4SM. THIS IS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT
BLF/LWB/BCB.
CONFIDENCE IN SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS PERIOD IS HIGH.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY. MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. SOME
VFR IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE BETTER ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE REACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORE SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY.
MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THOUGH WARM
FRONT MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A SEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY APPROACH BREAK THE
RECORD FOR COOLEST HIGHS FOR MAY 5TH. BELOW ARE THE CURRENT
RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 5TH.
THURSDAY 05/05/2016
SITE LOMAX YEAR
KBLF 50 1988
KDAN 51 1994
KLYH 51 1908
KROA 52 1917
KRNK 48 1994
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/WP
CLIMATE...CF/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
438 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING TO ALONG THE NC/VA COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING....THEN TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST OF PA/NY BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT THURSDAY...
GETTING SOME CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE
PIEDMONT...WITH SBCAPES OF 100-200 J/KG. PER HRRR ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING OVER THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF
VA/NC.
PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION...
VERY WET SCENARIO SHAPING UP TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALREADY SEEING
RAIN EXPANDING ACROSS THE NW NC PIEDMONT INTO THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT OF VA AT 320 AM.
QUESTION TODAY IS NOT IF IT IS GOING TO RAIN...IT IS WHERE WILL AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAINS SET UP...AND HOW HEAVY WILL THE RAIN BE...IN TERMS
OF AMOUNTS AND MOVEMENT. MODELS SEEM TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A
CORRIDOR OF STRONG LOW LVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH PERIODS OF
UPPER DIFLUENCE FAVOR A SE WV TO SOUTHSIDE VA REGION FOR STEADIER
RAINS...HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A ROANOKE TO SOUTH
BOSTON LINE. STILL IFFY AS TO HOW MUCH FALLS AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT.
AT THE MOMENT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES...THOUGH AM
CONCERNED SINCE SOME OF THE RIVERS IN THE PIEDMONT HAVE BEEN RUNNING
HIGH...WITH SOUTH BOSTON ALONG THE DAN RIVER STILL ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE...THAT SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR AGAIN LATER TODAY INTO
FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL HIT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
POTENTIAL STREAM OR RIVER FLOODING. FORECAST RAINFALL TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO JUST OVER AN INCH FROM LEWISBURG WV SOUTHEAST
TO DANVILLE AND POINTS NORTHEAST TO LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER
THE NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS.
AS FAR AS CONVECTION/THUNDER GOES...IT APPEARS CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER SFC TEMPS WILL LIMIT LOW LVL LAPSE RATES AND THERMODYNAMIC
INSTABILITY...THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE THERE ALONG WITH
COOLER AIR ALOFT THAT POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL MAY EXIST WITH
ISOLATED LIGHTNING. THE CONFIDENCE IN HAVING THIS IN THE FORECAST IS
LOW...THINKING ANY THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED AND ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER WILL BE SOUTH AND WELL EAST OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
WE ARE GOING TO SEE SHOWERS/RAIN WORK IN A NW TO SE PATTERN THEN
PIVOT TO AN EAST-WEST AXIS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST OF US TONIGHT...THE SHOWERS SHOULD SPIN AROUND TO
MORE A N-S AXIS WITH BANDS SETTING UP ALONG AND WEST OF A BUCKINGHAM
TO BOONE LINE BY EVENING WHILE HEAVIER SHOWERS WORK EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP POPS HIGH THOUGH QPF WILL BE
LOW...GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
NEEDLESS TO SAY IT WILL BE COOL TODAY WITH POTENTIAL RECORD COOL
HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING BROKEN MAINLY AT BLUEFIELD...BLACKSBURG AND
ROANOKE. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WEST...TO MID TO UPPER 50S EAST.
WITH CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD BE SLOW TO FALL..WITH
MIXING OCCURRING AS SFC LOW OFF THE COAST SHIFTS NORTH. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE NC MTNS/FAR SW VA INTO
SE WV...TO MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD
AND WEAKEN DURING FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD
SHOULD DRIFT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
SURFACE LOW THAT IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE MID-
ATLANTIC. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, 500 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW DEPARTS AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
HEADS EASTWARD. LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT, BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL NOT LAST LONG IN THE MOUNTAINS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY,
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHER POPS WERE
INSERTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE COLD FRONT STALLING OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY, BUT THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS CARRIES LOWER QPF THAN THE ECMWF. WHILE
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LOWER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES,
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD TRUMP THESE VARIABLES TO ALLOW A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CAPE,
SO THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. IF DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHICAL
EFFECTS CAN OVERCOME THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY, THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DRIFTS EAST IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AS FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY EVOLVES INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.
A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL DROP SOUTH SUNDAY INTO OUR AREA
AND STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING AS A
WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING OR
AMOUNTS ATTM. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 77 EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY...OUR AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH AND COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST IN
THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY...THEN
MODERATE INTO MIDWEEK. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOL DOWN IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE INTO THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TERMINALS AS WE
SHOULD START TO SEE SHOWERS/RAIN EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THEN TO THE MID ATLANTIC. MODELS ARE
SHOWING SHOWERY/RAINY WX FOR ALL TERMINALS MOST OF THE PERIOD
AFTER 10-12Z TODAY...WITH BLF/BCB/DAN ON THE SRN EDGE OF WHERE THE
BEST LIFT OCCURS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS
AT ALL SITES...GIVEN THAT IF IT RAINS HEAVY ENOUGH THE CIGS SHOULD
BE MVFR WITH VSBYS IFR...TO LIGHTER SHRA/RAIN LEADING TO LOWER
CIGS.
NOT FORESEEING ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THE MOMENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN
THE TAFS.
CONFIDENCE IN SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS PERIOD IS HIGH...BUT EXPECT
SOME SMALLER WINDOWS OF HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR AT TIMES NEAR
BLF/BCB/DAN THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY. MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. SOME
VFR IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE BETTER ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE REACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORE SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY.
MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THOUGH WARM
FRONT MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A SEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY APPROACH BREAK THE
RECORD FOR COOLEST HIGHS FOR MAY 5TH. BELOW ARE THE CURRENT
RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 5TH.
THURSDAY 05/05/2016
SITE LOMAX YEAR
KBLF 50 1988
KDAN 51 1994
KLYH 51 1908
KROA 52 1917
KRNK 48 1994
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/WP
CLIMATE...CF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
958 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
.UPDATE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS OVER WEST
CENTRAL WI WILL CONTINUE ESEWD INTO SRN WI FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SOME OF THE PCPN WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITHIN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHILE THE REMAINDER WILL BE ALONG
THE FRONT VIA FRONTOGENESIS. MUCAPES WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW 500
J/KG BUT WIND GUSTS WITH THE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED. ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER SUNRISE
WITH BRISK NLY WINDS AND DRY...COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY. SOME
SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE
MI.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
SRN WI SAT MORNING BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO
NORTH WITH GUSTY WINDS. LLWS WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A 45 KT WLY LLJ DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CIGS WILL START OFF AROUND 10 KFT BUT DROP
TO 5-7 KFT NEAR AND AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCT CUMULUS OF
5-7 KFT WILL THEN PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ALTHOUGH
THICKER HIGH CLOUDS MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SPEED SOUTH
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING AN ABRUPT
WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE NORTHERLY FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR ELEVATED WAVE ACTION AS
WELL. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH ALL THE WARM AIR OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST LEANED INTO WISCONSIN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN
THROUGH WI OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR SOUTHEAST WI BY MID SATURDAY MORNING.
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN
WI LATE TONIGHT.
THERE ARE TWO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE HRRR MODEL... AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
OTHER MESO MODELS... IS MORE ROBUST ON THE IDEA OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
FOCUS IT ALONG THE FRONT. KEPT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE SCENARIOS.
THE HRRR SOLUTION SHOWS SHOWERS/STORMS IN SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 05Z
AND 08Z. IT IS PICKING UP ON A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THETA-E
ADVECTION AND THE FOCUS OF THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET. THE NAM IS
SHOWING OVER 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHILE THE GFS HAS
MUCH LOWER VALUES. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS.
IF THE SHOWERS END UP DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT... LIKE
ALONG AND BEHIND IT... THEY WOULD AFFECT SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 11Z AND
17Z SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION.
MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIME...
SO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS GREATLY REDUCED.
CLOUDS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THEN DRY AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN AND LEAD TO SUNSHINE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S INLAND
BUT ONLY THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE LAKE DUE TO STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
MODELS SHOWING A MODERATE TO STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE IN THE
700 TO 500 MB LAYER THAT CROSSES SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY EVENING
WITH THE 700 MB COLD FRONT AS A SHORT WAVE SWEEPS ACROSS NE
WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AS MEAGER MOISTURE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MEANS NO MORE THAN SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...THAT STALLS OVER THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BETWEEN LARGE EASTERN CANADIAN VORTEX AND CLOSED
500 MB LOW...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME MODELS BRING QPF WITH 700 MB OMEGA
AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING IN BEFORE 12Z IN THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT ISENTROPIC FORECASTS SHOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA REMAIN SW
OF CWA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
NO REAL STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BUT EXPECTED
MODERATE NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL PRODUCE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S SATURDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MIXING WILL EASILY ALLOW SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL EVEN GET INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S IN THE LAKESIDE COUNTIES...BUT LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH SURFACE
HIGH SLIDING ACROSS STATE WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP MID-
LATE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE WITH CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE TO 850-700 MB WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION...ENHANCED BY
DIFFERENTIAL CVA WITH SHORT WAVE APPROACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
MONDAY EVENING. THOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW AS
SURFACE WARM FRONT GETS UP TO THE IL/WI BORDER MONDAY EVENING THEN
STALLS...ELEVATED CAPE VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT CLIMB TO
400-600J/KG SO DO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION AND EAST WINDS
LEAD TO CUTTING MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
PERIODIC SHOWERS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED
..ARE EXPECTED WITH THE ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN. MODELS SIMILAR
WITH FEATURES BUT DIFFER WITH TIMING AND POSITION. CANADIAN GEM
AND ECMWF HINT AT A BREAK IN THE PCPN CHANCES FOR A TIME ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS RAIN-FREE OVER SRN WI ON THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN EVERY PERIOD
THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION. THE CLOUDS
AND PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD... ALTHOUGH BRIEF
LOWER CATEGORIES WILL BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT INTO
MID SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AROUND 1 TO 3 AM. THERE IS
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND LESS OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG
THE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
SATURDAY MORNING... BUT THEY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
MARINE...
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WAVES WILL APPROACH 5 FEET FROM
MILWAUKEE AND SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WINDS
AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FLAGSTAFF AZ
922 PM MST FRI MAY 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS, AS WELL AS THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY, WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING...IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
FOR AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STORMS MAY HAVE SOME PEA SIZED TO HALF INCH HAIL THIS EVENING.
THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN UPDATED...MORE TO REFINE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AROUND CURRENT AND FUTURE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH AND CROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MESO-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST CONTINUE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTH...YAVAPAI COUNTY AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /308 PM MST/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES, WEST OF A LINE FROM BLACK CANYON CITY TO
PRESCOTT AND SUPAI VILLAGE. HRRR GUIDANCE DEVELOPS AN UNORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN YUMA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND ROTATES IT UP
INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY THIS EVENING. THE BEGINNINGS OF A CLUSTER IN
SOUTHWEST AZ/SOUTHEAST CA CAN BE SEEN ON MRMS REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCTS AT PRESENT. FOR NOW, KEEPING THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES
OVER YAVAPAI/WESTERN COCONINO AND LOWER CHANCES FARTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT SEEMS REASONABLE.
TONIGHT...AS THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS LARGELY NEAR
AND WEST OF I-17/US 89, A FEW HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS COULD SEE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AREN`T PARTICULARLY
COLD WITH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY ABOUT -2.5C AT 700MB, BUT
SOME LOCAL COOLING DUE TO PRECIP DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION. SPECIFICALLY, LOCATIONS NEAR AND
ABOVE 7000 FEET INCLUDING THE FLAGSTAFF AREA COULD OBSERVE SOME
SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY ALONG I-40 WEST OF FLAGSTAFF AND ALONG US-180
NORTHWEST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS. GIVEN LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING, IT MAY BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE ASIDE FROM GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES BELOW ABOUT
7500-8000 FEET. THAT BEING SAID, IT WOULD BE WISE TO BE READY FOR
A LITTLE SNOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PRECIP CHANCES AND BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES ARE IN
YAVAPAI/COCONINO COUNTIES OVER TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
SATURDAY, ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE NORTHERN ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN
INCLUDING THE EASTERN RIM/WHITE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA ON
SUNDAY.
CHANCES FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE ON MONDAY, MOST
NOTABLY IN NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA, AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS ON
TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FOR
THE TIME BEING, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE UNDER A
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...OVERNIGHT...A PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNDER
SCATTERED SHOWERS...PRIMARILY ACROSS YAVAPAI...COCONINO...AND
NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 16Z SAT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING A PERIOD OF COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH SNOW LEVELS BRIEFLY DROPPING DOWN TO
AROUND 7000 FEET.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MONDAY WILL SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WITH OTHERWISE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TC/AT
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...MCS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
358 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER ARIZONA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND CLOSE OFF OVER
FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO BY SUNDAY MORNING.
NOW FOR THE DETAILS...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST WELD COUNTY. THIS HAS BROUGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE
FRONT RANGE AND INCREASED MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THIS CIRCULATION DISSIPATING
THROUGH THE MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS FROM EAGLE
TO PUEBLO. THIS WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
EVENTUALLY A NEW SURFACE LOW FORMS JUST EAST OF COLORADO SPRINGS
TO PUEBLO AND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. SURFACE BASED
CAPES WILL BE UP TO 2000 J/KG. ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED LOW SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOS. BEST TIME FOR THE SEVERE STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE JUST AFTER NOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 TO AS LATE
AS EARLY EVENING OVER FAR NORTHERN COLORADO. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS.
EASTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AT 700MB SUPPORTS THIS POTENTIAL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SO MINOR FLOODING ISSUES MAY BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF LARIMER COUNTY.
THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. SHOWERS MAY
WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS
OF COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF WEAK LIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY STILL AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST CORNER INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT LESS
THAN TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR MONDAY AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE A COMBINATION OF A LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING
COMBINING WITH MODEST DIURNAL CONVECTION TO MOVE SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE PLAINS. BY WEDNESDAY THE AIR MASS
SHOULD BE DRIER...BUT STILL PROBABLY A LITTLE LIFT FROM THE NEARBY
JET AND STILL SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. EVEN LESS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE WARMING...BUT STILL SOME LOW END SPRING
SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
A SURFACE LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF KDEN WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING.
A NEW SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 18Z.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE DENVER
AREA THROUGH 18Z. WINDS MAY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT KDEN AFTER
18Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND 18Z AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE DENVER AREA WILL
BE 18Z TO 00Z. HEAVY RAIN...HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 00Z AS STORMS SHIFT NORTH OF THE DENVER
AREA.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
241 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
THEN FILTER IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TO THE LOW TO MID 70S SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
FRONT EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR BACK INTO NW WI AND DOWN THRU
SOUTHERN MN. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SOME TSRA IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
IN VICINITY OF FRONTAL WAVE. SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT DETACHED WELL TO THE NORTH AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF EXTENDING
DOWN THRU ONTARIO WITH PARENT SURFACE LOW POSITIONED IN THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NW CWA BORDER BY 12Z THIS MORNING AS
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. BETTER
AERIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA IN
VICINITY OF FRONTAL WAVE AS COLD FRONT BECOMES TAKES ON A MORE E/W
ORIENTATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH WHICH WILL DIMINISH MASS
CONVERGENCE/FORCING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED AS SURFACE
HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BLOCK ANY RETURN FLOW.
TIMING OF FROPA ALSO UNFAVORABLE/TOO EARLY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
PERHAPS FAR SE CWA WHERE HIRES GUIDANCE HAS MID-DAY CAPES REACHING
1000J/KG. THE ABOVE FACTORS HAS LATEST RUNS OF CONSSHORT YIELDING
LOW CHANCE POPS AND A FASTER EXIT FROM THE CWA THAN CURRENT
FORECAST...WILL WORK TO BLEND THE TWO AND HAVE PRECIP ENDING BY
00Z SUN. MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE NW CWA WILL HAVE NON-
DIURNAL TREND IN TEMPS WITH NW FLOW OFF THE LAKE...KEEPING TEMPS
NEARLY STEADY AT 55-60F WHILE LOWER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SE
HALF OF THE CWA. FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND AND WILL PROVIDE FOR FAIR
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR MOTHERS DAY ON SUNDAY. FAVOR
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT OVER MODEL BLEND AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SHALLOW SURFACE BASED INVERSION WILL DECOUPLE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
FOCUS SHIFTS TO SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW LIFTING UP INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...SUBSEQUENT LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL HAVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WILL OPEN UP
DEEP MOISTURE RETURN FEEDING INTO THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT TO BE SLOW TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 300K SURFACE IS
QUITE WEAK INITIALLY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW UNABLE TO MAKE ANY EASTWARD
PROGRESS IN PRESENCE OF STRONG DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE...KEEPING
MAIN TROF AXIS BACK TO THE WEST. RESULT WILL BE AN OCCLUDING
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS FROM WHICH PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO
THURSDAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE PATTERN ON VARYING MODEL SOLNS WRT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT. WILL TREND TOWARD DRY FORECAST BY DAY 7 AS
ENSEMBLE MEANS DROPPING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR/LIGHT SSW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH MAIN FOCUS
ON COLD FRONT PASSAGE AT KSBN LATE MORNING AND AT KFWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER/INCREASE OUT OF THE WNW POST-
FRONTAL WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. ALSO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AT KSBN 11-16Z
AND KFWA 14-19Z. LACKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WITH STRONGER
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT BYPASSING NORTH DEFINITE LIMITING
FACTORS FOR -TSRA MENTION...YET STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS A CONCERN THAT SCT CONVECTION MAY
BRIEFLY IMPACT NORTHERN INDIANA. OPTED FOR AN OPTIMISTIC VFR/VCSH
APPROACH FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR A POTENTIAL AMENDMENT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WAS SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE NORTH OF DULUTH
WAS LEADING TO HAZE ACROSS MINNEAPOLIS THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS
SMOKE COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY DAYBREAK. THE
COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH WILL DRIVE OUR WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
SOUTH...STALLS OUT...AND THEN RETURNS TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AM COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
FRONT SAGS SOUTH.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CLOUDS TODAY.
AN APPROACHING H5 WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND LIKELY
LEAD TO CONVECTION. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF QPF. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP
COVERAGE AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. SPC HAS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE LIMITING FACTOR IN SEVERE WEATHER IS THAT THE
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND BY THE
TIME THE WAVE AND INCREASED SHEAR MAKES ITS WAY IN THE PARAMETERS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE OVERLAID OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. A
LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. COULD SEE A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH SUB
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH
TRIES TO INTENSIFY CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE LOCATION OF THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL DRIVE
WHAT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WE WILL HAVE. AT THIS TIME IT SUGGESTS
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND THEN BEGIN TO RETURN
TO THE AREA AS THE WESTERN MOST LOW OF THE OMEGA BLOCK BEGINS TO
EJECT OUT OVER THE PLAINS. AGAIN MOISTURE WILL BE OUR LIMITING
FACTOR FOR ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
A WILDFIRE NORTH OF DULUTH HAS LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
THE SMELL OF SMOKE IN THE TWIN CITIES THIS MORNING. WITH A
SOUTHERN WIND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD MOVE INTO OUR CWA. AT
THIS TIME WILL NOT ADD ANY HAZE TO THE FORECAST...LATER SHIFTS MAY
OR LATER UPDATES ON MY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADD IT DEPENDING ON ITS
LOCATION THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP INTO NEXT WEEK.
OVERVIEW...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN STALLING THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE THERE ARE THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES...NAMELY THE GFS IS DEEPEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW MONDAY
AND NAM AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE AS DEEP...THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS
THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING INTO OUR SERVICE AREA LATE
MONDAY.
SUNDAY...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLIDING EAST AND LIMITED MOISTURE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALL MODELS DEPICT AN OVERRUNNING
EVENT WITH RAIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE WARM
FRONT...BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO BE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA MONDAY. TIMING WITH THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE DURING PEAK HEATING
AND THE MAIN UPPER WAVE LIFTING OUT WOULD FAVOR STRONGER STORMS.
HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP LINGERING
WELL INTO THE DAY COULD BE INHIBITING FACTORS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SPECIFICS
DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS TIME PERIOD AS MODELS VARY
CONSIDERABLY ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE FEATURES.
COLD FRONT AND MAIN SURFACE LOW SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA LATE
IN THIS TIME FRAME. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT CONTINUED PERIODS OF
RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. ECMWF
DOES GENERATE SOME SHOWERS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
INCREASING MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED NOT TO BE WIDESPREAD...THUS A VICINITY
WORDING HAS BEEN APPLIED TO TAF FORECASTS FOR NOW. LATER UPDATES
CAN DETERMINE BETTER TIMING OF BANDS OF SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD
MAINLY BE VFR IN NATURE. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND REMAIN NEAR 10 KTS GUSTING TO 25 KTS FOR A SHORT TIME
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. ERVIN
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
425 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRY WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. CURRENTLY THIS BOUNDARY IS DRY WITH JUST MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE CWA ARE EXHIBITING A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
VARYING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE LOW
50S ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL. WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
THIS PART OF KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING AND PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN
RATHER LIMITED THUS FAR.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEVOLUTION OF THE
CONUS OMEGA BLOCK AS THE EASTERN LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND THE WESTERN ONE OPENS UP TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
EASTERN LOW/S DEPARTURE...HEIGHTS WILL CLIMB TODAY. MEANWHILE...A
DIGGING CLOSED LOW WILL DESCEND INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE
HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY PUSHING A MINOR SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT. RATHER
FLAT AND FAST FLOW FOLLOWS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHERN TROUGH SPINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR EARLY AND NAM THEREAFTER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUICK WARM UP FOLLOWING A CHILLY
START FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SLIPS THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZED AIR MASS ACROSS THE
CWA LATER IN THE DAY. LIS WILL FALL TO -5 OR LESS WHILE CAPE
CLIMBS TO 1500 J/KG OR GREATER ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING WITH
HEIGHTS. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD SINKING BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO AND ALSO A PARTNER
E-MAIL. THOUGH POPS WILL FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE STALLING
COLD FRONT WILL SIT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD KEEP THE ELEVATION BASED DIFFERENCES TO A MINIMUM FOR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WHILE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DIFFERENCES
ACROSS THE FRONT WILL DRIVE LOWS. LIKEWISE ON SUNDAY...EXPECT WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND COOL MID 60S
NORTHEAST.
USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST
ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND MINIMAL TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS
TO ADJUST FOR TIMING OF THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH SOLUTIONS DIVERGING A BIT LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SEEING MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SMALLER
SCALE FEATURES...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFTER THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION DAY ONE...MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
APPROACHING TROUGH THAT MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THIS TROUGH IS PART OF A LARGER CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL PHASE
WITH...BE REINFORCED BY ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ABOUT THE SAME
TIME. OVERALL RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL TRANSITION OF LARGER SYSTEM
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...A STALLED OUT COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
HEART OF OUR CWA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY THERE WILL ONLY BE A
BRIEF LULL IN THE THREAT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE WEEK...
FIRST FROM THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA AND SECOND FROM
THE TROUGH THAT ROTATES ACROSS THE MIDWEST TUESDAY. THEREAFTER FLOW
IS SOMEWHAT SPLIT UNTIL LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA BY THU INTO FRI.
OVERALL TEMPS APPEAR TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. POPS APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THEN
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. A WEAK
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY MORE THAN A
STRAY SHOWER TO THE AREA PRIOR TO THAT TIME. HOWEVER...AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL LIKELY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA AND PERHAPS SOME EXPANSION SOUTH
LATER IN THE EVENING. HAVE GEARED THE TAF GRIDS AND TEXT TAFS FOR
THIS IDEA WITH VCTS THE MAIN MEANS OF CONVEYING THE STORM
THREAT...AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PICK UP SMARTLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND LATER WEST DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
337 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat May 7 2016
The tranquil weather of the last few days is about to end. A cold
front currently over northwest Iowa will drift into northern
Missouri and central Illinois this afternoon before becoming quasi-
stationary. GFS/NAM/RAP all develop a healthy amount of CAPE this
afternoon...perhaps too much on the GFS and NAM given the dewpoints
in the upper 40s and 50s that are in place over the area. With the
surface ridge still locked in over the Gulf Coast, I don`t see any
real strong moisture return potential today so I think convection is
going to have to work with the relatively dry air today.
Regardless, all guidance including the high resolution convection
allowing models break precip out along the front over northern
Missouri by 18-19Z and move it across northeast Missouri into west
central and southwest Illinois. HRRR variants are especially
interesting as they organize the convection into a decent
cluster/MCS. Organized severe convection seems like a decent
possibility given 0-6km shear increasing to 35-45kts in the
afternoon even considering the conservative RAP 1500-2000 J/Kg.
Have therefore increased PoPs to high chance and likely along the
front this afternoon. Highs south of the front will likely be near
or a couple of degrees warmer than Friday`s readings. Along and
north of the front, highs will be very dependent on exactly when and
where afternoon convection decides to fire...although highs in the
upper 70s to around 80 look likely.
Carney
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat May 7 2016
GFS and NAM agree that the front will become stationary from
central and southeast Missouri into southern Illinois tonight. There
may still be some isolated/scattered thunderstorms along the front,
but best chance of storms later this evening and overnight will be
farther north across northeast Missouri into central Illinois. Both
the NAM and GFS show the upper ridge slowly moving east across the
area on Sunday and the surface front beginning to move back north as
a warm front. Both models are showing strong moisture convergence
along the front ahead of mid level vort max as it retreats northward
on Sunday which warrants high chance PoPs.
GFS and ECMWF are still showing a series of upper troughs moving
across the area Monday through Wednesday that will make for an active
period for showers and thunderstorms. There will still be the
potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms during the
period, particularly if the atmosphere can become unstable after a
previous round of convection. The mostly likely period for rain at
this time looks like Monday night when both the GFS and ECMWF show
strong moisture convergence occurring under the passage of a
negatively tilted mid-level trough. Upper trough will move off to
the east by late in the week, but some weak instability underneath a
weak mid level shortwave moving across the area warrant keeping a
slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast Thursday
and Friday.
Will keep near normal temperatures through the period as both the
GFS and ECMWF are forecasting 850mb temperatures between 10-15C.
Clouds and rain chances will limit diurnal range in temperatures.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Fri May 6 2016
Weak front will drop south into the region Saturday and Saturday
night. Best chances for showers/thunderstorsm will be over NE MMO
and WC IL. Late afternoon into the evening looks best, but with
only chance pops will continue VCTS for UIN.
Specifics for KSTL: Front should move into the area around 00z.
Still a question of precipitation will move this far south so will
continue dry forecast.
JPK
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
358 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION FIRE UP EARLY THIS MORNING
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
WHILE THE RAP DOES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...REMAIN HARD PRESSED TO FIND ANY OTHER MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEVELOPING CONVECTION SO EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT
SAID...EVEN THE RAP DIES OFF THIS CONVECTION AS IT TRACK NORTH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER
ARIZONA THIS MORNING MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HELPS
INITIATE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WHILE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP LOCALLY UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS INSTABILITY
STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN
PLACE...HOWEVER...DO NOT ANTICIPATE HEATING ALONG WILL BE ABLE TO
GENERATE ACTIVITY...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE REQUIRED
TO REALLY GET CONVECTION GOING LATER IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE IS
AMPLE INSTABILITY ALOFT...WITH MU CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2 KJ/KG
BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH DECENT DEEP LEVEL SHEER...EXPECT
THE HIGH BASE OF THESE STORMS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...PLAN ON ALTERING
THE WORDING IN THE HWO LATER THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING.
LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING...AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...COULD SEE SOME
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL...MAYBE TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS..DEVELOP
IN THESE HIGH BASED STORMS...ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. WHILE FAR FROM A SURE BET...EXPECT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNDER THIS PATTERN
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH THE 00Z WRF BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE OF THE MESO SCALE MODELS...ALBEIT THE HRRR AND RAP
INDICATE SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE HUGE CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST AS IT WAS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH CURRENT THINKING AND
MODEL DATA...AND IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO GO ABOVE A 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES. TEMPERATURE
WISE...WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A COOL FRONT SAGGING
SOUTH...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BE 7-10 DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAYS WARM SPRING READINGS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THERE ARE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE LONG TERM.
SEVERAL OF THESE DAYS EXHIBIT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MOTHERS
DAY HAPPENS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE NEAR
TERM AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE DISCUSSION.
MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRANSITION OF THE 500 MB
TRACK IN THE UPPER LEVELS LEADING UP TO SUNDAY. QUESTIONS ARISE WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW COME SUNDAY...AND WILL PLAY A BIG
ROLE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE. THESE FINER DETAILS
SHOULD BE REEXAMINED COME SUNDAY BECAUSE ONGOING CONVECTION FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL IMPACT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATIONS. MOST UNSTABLE
VALUES RANGE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 1000 TO JUST OVER 3000 J/KG DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. BULK SHEAR (0-6 KM) VALUES RANGE ROUGHLY BETWEEN 30 AND
60 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES RANGE BETWEEN ABOUT 50 AND 100
M^2/S^2. THE OVERNIGHT NIGHT PARAMETERS ARE WEAKER...BUT STILL
SIGNAL A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...THESE VALUES ARE
SUPPORTIVE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND SEVERE WEATHER....ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS
SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LOW...BUT ONE WOULD NOT HAVE TO LOOK TOO FAR FOR
BETTER CHANCES...WHICH WOULD BASICALLY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS. I SUPPOSE THE CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THAT BEING
SAID...THE TORNADIC CHANCE APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THE
HASTINGS FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. BIG PICTURE- WISE...THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IS
GREATEST DURING SUNDAY NIGHT HOURS. QPF VALUES ARE HIGHEST DURING
THIS TIME AS WELL.
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...HOWEVER THE CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LIMITED AT BEST TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREAFTER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEARLY
EVERY PERIOD EXCEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM WITH NO
DAY STANDING OUT. THE COOLEST NIGHT OVERALL IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THESE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM ROUGHLY THE LOWER 40S TO THE MID
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF NOTEWORTHY CONCERNS TO MENTION. FIRST
OFF...VWP IS INDICATING ONGOING WIND SHEAR WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
NEAR 50KTS LESS THAN 1KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE. CONTINUED THIS
MENTION THROUGH 12Z AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH ALOFT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VARIABLY CLOUDY
SKIES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
LIKELY PEAKING DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE A MENTION OF A VCSH AFTER ABOUT 08/00Z...ALBEIT
THERE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ADDED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THIS TIME PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON
TIMING/VALIDITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE LOCAL
TERMINALS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1153 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE
PANHANDLE...MOVING EAST...AS FORECAST BY THE HRRR MODEL. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND POSE A WIND
GUST THREAT. THEY ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY COALESCE ACROSS NRN NEB TONIGHT BUT
THE NAM IS SHOWING MUCH LESS STORM COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAYS MODEL
RUN. THUS...LESS STORM COVERAGE WILL HOLD UP THE PROGRESS OF THE
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SWRN NEB AND
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTN.
THIS IS FARTHER NORTH AND THE GFS SHOWS THE SAME PLACING MORE OF
WESTERN AND NCNTL NEB IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. CONRAD SUGGESTS
DOMINANT RIGHT MOVING SUPER CELLS AT THE ONSET. SHEAR WEAKENS IN THE
LATE EVENING AND A MULTICELLS REGIME TAKES HOLD. 0-1KM HELICITY
INCREASE IN THE EARLY EVENING SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
THE LATEST MODEL BLEND PLUS BIAS CORRECTION SHOWS DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 50S ALONG I-80 SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE MET GUIDANCE SHOWS
MID 50S. NONE OF THESE NUMBERS SUGGEST A SHALLOW MIXING HEIGHT BUT
GIVEN THE FRONT AND HIGH HELICITY AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY DEVELOP.
THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST OF TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STORM COVERAGE BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE 700MB WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS INDICATED IN THE NAM MODEL
LIFTING VERY QUICKLY THROUGH THE FCST AREA.
THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A CLOSED H700MB LOW ACROSS ERN
WY/NERN COLO SUNDAY MORNING AT 12Z. THIS LOW MOVES VERY SLOWLY INTO
THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY. THE NAM SHOWS INSTABILITY LIFTING NORTH INTO
NCNTL NEB SUNDAY AFTN. THE ATM SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STORM MODE
IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLNS FOR MONDAY BUT SOME SORT OF
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD STILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS NEBRASKA OR
WRN IA/MN...NWRN KS OR SRN SD. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A LIKELY CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY EAST CLOSER TO THE
WARM SECTOR.
THERE IS NO REAL CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE FRONT IS
FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS SWRN NEB.
HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
40S.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY AND MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AMPLIFY ACROSS WRN N AMERICA
SUPPORTING A FRESH SHOT OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE TO ISOLATED WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW COLD AIR ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES AT H500MB AROUND -18C AND
H700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 0C OR COLDER. THE ECM SHOWS H500MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -25C THURSDAY MORNING.
BIAS CORRECTION ADDED TO THE MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES PRODUCED
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER AND FROST MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WRN SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PANHANDLE. SKIES WOULD NEED TO CLEAR TO
SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS RISE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM KOGA TO KANW
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES
CAN BE EXPECTED. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WINDS. WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS HAVE NOT CARRIED
PREVAILING AT EITHER KLBF OR KVTN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
A FLOOD ADVISORY WITH MINOR FLOODING TO CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER NEAR LEWELLEN. THE CURRENT STAGE AT LEWELLEN IS 7.7
FEET WHICH IS JUST OVER THE FLOOD STAGE OF 7.5 FEET. A SLOW RISE TO
7.9 FEET IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE UPSTREAM AT LISCO. ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
ELEVATED FLOWS WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THIS
TIME...THE SOUTH PLATTE AND MAIN STEM PLATTE RIVER FROM ROSCOE TO
BRADY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
423 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST
TODAY. AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. THAT FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MILD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
THE UPPER LOW AND SFC REFLECTION ARE STILL SPINNING OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...FETCH IS BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY/OVER-LAND. THIS SHOULD DRAW IN DRIER AIR AND
DECREASE THE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE SYSTEM. AS IT FILLS
AND MOVES TO THE EAST TODAY...THE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE EARLY IN
THE MORNING IN THE WEST...BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS MAY HAVE SOME
SPRINKLES THROUGH 10 OR 11 AM...AND SOME REAL/ACCUMULATING SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE GOING THRU NOON-1 PM IN THE SE. POPS NEED NOT BE MORE
THAN 50 PCT ANYWHERE SINCE THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY
AND WILL BE DRYING UP. A SLOT OF CLEARING MAY OCCUR IN THE WEST
THIS MORNING BUT WILL CLOSE UP LATE TODAY AS CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST DUE TO UPSTREAM SHRA/TSRA. SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR IN THE
CENTRAL AND THEN EAST AS WELL. BUT IT MAY BE MUCH LIKE THE SKY
OVER WRN PA THIS MORNING WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD DECKS BUT NOT ENOUGH
OPACITY TO CALL IT PLAIN OL CLOUDY. MAXES IN THE 60S WILL BE
ABOUT 10F MILDER TODAY THAN FRIDAY IN THE SE AND A COUPLE DEGS
MILDER IN THE NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. LATEST HI-RES
MDLS KEEP PRECIP OFF UNTIL ABOUT 00Z FOR THE WEST. AN ISOLD SHRA
IS POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN SOMERSET CO BEFORE THEN. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU RATHER QUICKLY...AND WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE SFC
BEFORE PASSAGE. HI-RES MDLS DO GENERATE CONVECTION WITH CELLS
TRACKING NW-SE IN THE SWRN PART OF THE AREA...AND MORE SW-NE IN
THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS ALOFT NOT STRONG AND PROFILE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TSRA WITH ONLY MODEST VEERING AND HOWEVER...SPC
MRGL RISK NEARS THE LAURELS. THINGS GOING AGAINST DEEP CONVECTION
IN CENTRAL PA INCLUDE THE POOR MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE
40S/...TIME OF DAY /AFTER DARK/ AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WHICH THE
EQUALLY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS TRYING TO RUN THROUGH/OVER. QPF
IS PALTRY WITH STORM MOTION MAGNITUDES OF 20-30 MPH AND THE POOR
MOISTURE. WILL KEEP WORDING FOR THUNDER IN THE ISOLD/SLIGHT CHC
RANGE WITH HIGH/CAT POPS IN GENERAL FOR THE NW HALF/TWO-THIRDS OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 00-06Z. SHOWER CHANCES DIMINSH MARKEDLY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES SE AND OFF THE CENTRAL MTNS. DOWNSLOPE AND POOR
CONVERGENCE SHOULD SQUASH THEM RATHER EFFECTIVELY.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WELL BEFORE
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. THE DRIER AIR WILL RUSH IN. SOME INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED IN THE NORTH UNDER THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND WITH HELP FROM
A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LAKE MOISTURE FLUX SOME SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. BUT THE LOW 30 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
SUSTAIN MUCH AND MAKE MORE THAN SPRINKLES. WILL RUN WITH SOME
20-30 POPS IN THE NORTHERN TIER PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HEAVIER AIR SLIDING IN AND A 10MB PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
THE STATE IN THE MORNING AND THEN MIXING UP TO 5-6KFT IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MIXING WILL TAP HIGHER WINDS AT CLOUD LEVEL AND
COULD GENERATE GUSTS INTO THE 20S OR EVEN NEAR 30MPH ON THE
RIDGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW PWAT AIR SLIDES OVER THE STATE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR TOO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY LOW
TEMPS EARLY MONDAY - IN THE 30S AND 40S. PATCHY LIGHT FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS 05-12Z MONDAY.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP TO FORM/ADVECT A WARM
FRONT NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN MTNS OF THE
STATE...AND WILL PERSIST AT ABOUT THE SAME AREAL COVERAGE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CHC FOR SHOWERS (AND SCATTERED TSRA) INCREASES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SWRLY LLJ TRANSPORTS BETTER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.
CHC FOR PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA WILL PEAK
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BEFORE THE SFC FRONT BEGINS TO OCCLUDE
AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL.
LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND...NRN STREAM ENERGY WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME JETLETS TO ITS SOUTH WILL BRING LOW CHCS FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA. TEMPS WILL START OUT
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM INTO...OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OVR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...CAUSING
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA WITH THE FOCUS OF
REMAINING RAIN OVR SE PA. HOWEVER...STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND CIGS SHOULD FALL OVERNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS. VFR CIG STILL
NOTED AT KBFD AS OF 03Z...BUT MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DROP TO
MVFR BY ARND 04Z. BOTH SREF AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST IFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT AT KMDT/KLNS...POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT
KJST/KAOO/KUNV AND UNLIKELY AT KBFD/KIPT.
REMNANTS OF LOW PRES WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA AND RESIDUAL STRATUS
DECK WILL LIKELY LIFT/BREAK UP BY AFTN DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING. MDL SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY SAT AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE
REGION SAT EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA AND POSSIBLE BRIEF
VIS REDUCTIONS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
111 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST
TODAY. AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. THAT FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS STILL ROTATING THROUGH...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH RIGHT
NOW. THE FLOW IS BECOMING MORE OF A NE FETCH AND WILL DRY THINGS
UP AS WE MOVE INTO THE MORNING. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO LATE MORNING IN THE SE...BUT TAKE A BREAK FOR THE MORNING
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
PREV...
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY FROM EARLIER IN THE
EVENING. THE HRRR AND BOTH THE ARW AND NMM WRF MEMBERS SHOW THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING...BUT SHRINKING IN COVERAGE THE
DEEPER INTO THE EVENING WE GO...AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE OVERNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEG ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE TONIGHT BEFORE FILLING AND GETTING KICKED OUT TO SEA BY
AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WNW ON SAT. THERE MIGHT BE
A LULL IN THE PRECIP ON SAT IN BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS.
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MANAGE TO NUDGE SOME SEASONABLY MILD AIR
IN FROM THE SW. MAXES SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD
HELP GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY AND CAPE...ALLOWING CONVECTION TO
FORM ALONG AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW/FRONT. WILL JUST MENTION
SOME TS IN THE LATE AFTN IN THE W AND CARRY IT INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS FOR THE FIRST PART OF SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.
AGAIN...MOISTURE STILL LACKING AND THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL TO A RELATIVE MINIMUM. LITTLE/NO RISK
FOR BOTH SEVERE AND FLOODING. THE 8H TEMPS FROM 10-12C DOWN TO
AROUND A FEW DEGS EITHER SIDE OF 0C BY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODERATELY STRONG LLVL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING GUSTY NW WINDS
(PEAK GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS) WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SFC RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW PWAT AIR SLIDES OVER THE STATE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR TOO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY LOW
TEMPS EARLY MONDAY - IN THE 30S AND 40S. PATCHY LIGHT FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS 05-12Z MONDAY.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP TO FORM/ADVECT A WARM
FRONT NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN MTNS OF THE
STATE...AND WILL PERSIST AT ABOUT THE SAME AREAL COVERAGE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CHC FOR SHOWERS (AND SCATTERED TSRA) INCREASES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SWRLY LLJ TRANSPORTS BETTER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.
CHC FOR PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA WILL PEAK
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BEFORE THE SFC FRONT BEGINS TO OCCLUDE
AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL.
LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND...NRN STREAM ENERGY WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME JETLETS TO ITS SOUTH WILL BRING LOW CHCS FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA. TEMPS WILL START OUT
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM INTO...OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OVR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...CAUSING
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA WITH THE FOCUS OF
REMAINING RAIN OVR SE PA. HOWEVER...STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND CIGS SHOULD FALL OVERNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS. VFR CIG STILL
NOTED AT KBFD AS OF 03Z...BUT MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DROP TO
MVFR BY ARND 04Z. BOTH SREF AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST IFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT AT KMDT/KLNS...POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT
KJST/KAOO/KUNV AND UNLIKELY AT KBFD/KIPT.
REMNANTS OF LOW PRES WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA AND RESIDUAL STRATUS
DECK WILL LIKELY LIFT/BREAK UP BY AFTN DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING. MDL SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY SAT AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE
REGION SAT EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA AND POSSIBLE BRIEF
VIS REDUCTIONS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
432 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE ON TAP FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WITH
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS (INCLUDING SEVERE WEATHER) ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THEREAFTER...RAIN CHANCES RETURN AS SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
...SHORT TERM (TODAY AND SUNDAY)...
FOR TODAY...IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALED THAT HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUED TO STREAM IN FROM THE NOW DECAYING CONVECTION THAT
FIRED EARLIER ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
TODAY`S TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE (SERVING AS THE
CENTERPIECE FOR THE OMEGA PATTERN) PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS. TOWARDS
TONIGHT...A MIX OF BOTH HIGH AND COARSE RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. SURFACE AND
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AT THIS HOUR SUGGESTS THAT DEEP RICH
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF REMAINS FAIRLY SCANT AND WHILE THERE WILL
BE A TRANSITION FROM THE MORE SUBSIDENT REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE TO NEAR NEUTRAL OR WEAK ASCENT WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...THE LACK OF GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...I WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES MAINLY WEST OF I-35 THIS EVENING AND TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY.
FOR SUNDAY...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD FINALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. WITH THE WEAK WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME...THERE IS A
FAIRLY CONSISTENT QPF SIGNAL FROM A MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE THAT
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE LOW LEVELS MAY STILL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE AND IT`S LIKELY THAT MOST
PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY ON SUNDAY MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED
POPS UPWARD INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE WITH A GOOD CONSENSUS
FROM MOST SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGED GUIDANCE. THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE ELEVATED
NATURE OF CONVECTION AND THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...A FEW BOUTS
OF SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES.
THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY AS A LARGE CHUNK OF
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OUT ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY AHEAD OF THE SHARPENING DRYLINE THAT WILL FOR THE MOST
PART MIX TO THE EAST VERY SLOWLY. A STOUT CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY. IN
ADDITION...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER ANY DIABATIC HEATING
WHICH MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE TO ASSIST IN THE EROSION OF THE CAP. AS
STRONGER FORCING FROM THE LEAD WAVE OF THE UPPER TROUGH GRAZES THE
AREA AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE DRYLINE BULGE THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME
FRAME...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN ZONES. AN
EXAMINATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS
REVEALS THAT THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A 1500 J/KG OF CAPE AS
WELL AS DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS DUE TO HIGH LCLS AND A LARGE
AMOUNT OF DCAPE. THE HIGH LCLS IMPLY THAT THE TORNADO RISK WILL BE
A LOWER THREAT COMPARED TO THE HAIL/DOWNBURST WIND THREAT.
AS STRONG FORCING CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND GRADUALLY
STABILIZING SURFACE LAYER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
IN NATURE WHICH MAY DIMINISH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN ADVANCE OF THE EASTWARD MOVING STORMS MAY
ALSO SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY LOWER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
...LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
FOR MONDAY...THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AREAL EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND MAY OCCUR WITH CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
WHICH MAY PRESERVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE
WILL DICTATE WHICH AREAS WILL SEE STORMS. THE TREND THIS YEAR HAS
CERTAINLY BEEN FOR MODELS TO QUICKLY MIX THE DRYLINE TOO FAR TO
THE EAST...EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT FORCING. THE LATEST
CONSENSUS AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE PASSAGE OF THE
DRYLINE JUST A BIT AND PLACES IT NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO
00 UTC TUES (COMPARED TO 18 UTC MON IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS). WITH
AN ADDITIONAL DAY OF GOOD SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
(WHEREVER IT SETS UP)...A DEEPER FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD
HELP BOOST INSTABILITY VALUES CLOSER TOWARDS 2500 J/KG. WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHING EASTWARD...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES OF AROUND 50 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
ASSUMING ENOUGH HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTWARD MIXING
DRYLINE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME
THAT THE BETTER THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
WHILE LCL HEIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES...WILL BE
LOWER COMPARED TO SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AS A RESULT...WILL MENTION A LOW TORNADO RISK
ON MONDAY GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. DETAILS ON THE CONVECTIVE MODE/HAZARDS WILL
BE REFINED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL OUTPUT IS EXAMINED.
FOR TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT WILL SLIDE
TOWARDS THE EAST BEFORE GRADUALLY STALLING OUT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH. WHILE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AS
IMPLIED BY HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREADS THE AREA...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
ASCENT ALONG THE TRAILING BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE...WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THESE WINDS SHOULD FOSTER GOOD COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND
WILL SEND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. LOW
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NORTH AND
WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LIFT BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...IT APPEARS THAT A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE NORTH AND COLLIDING WITH
THIS BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES MAY
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS REMAINS ZONAL.
BAIN
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1158 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS MOVING UP BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT TAF ISSUANCE
TIME WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 15 KNOTS BY 16Z SATURDAY AS A LEE
SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES...THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY MOVE INTO WACO 07-09Z
SUNDAY AND INTO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES 08-10Z SUNDAY.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 82 65 80 66 82 / 0 5 30 50 60
WACO 82 66 81 67 84 / 0 10 30 40 60
PARIS 81 61 79 64 80 / 0 5 30 40 60
DENTON 83 64 79 66 82 / 0 5 30 50 60
MCKINNEY 82 63 80 66 81 / 0 5 30 50 60
DALLAS 83 66 81 66 82 / 0 5 30 50 60
TERRELL 82 64 81 66 82 / 0 5 30 40 60
CORSICANA 83 64 80 67 82 / 0 5 20 40 60
TEMPLE 82 65 81 68 85 / 5 10 30 40 50
MINERAL WELLS 82 64 82 65 87 / 5 10 30 50 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/15
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
432 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Southwest flow aloft will remain over the area the next 24 hours
ahead of a deep upper low over the southwest states. The dryline
will remain west of the area this afternoon and evening, extending
from the panhandle, southwest across the Permian Basin and into
southwest Texas. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the vicinity of the dryline by peak heating,
with this activity making a run for our western counties by late
afternoon and early evening. Latest HRRR has convection entering far
western portions of the Big Country, Concho Valley and northern
Edwards Plateau after 22Z. Convection should weaken with the loss of
daytime heating but could see activity linger into the mid to late
evening hours as it moves northeast across mainly the western half
of the forecast area. A few strong or isolated severe storms will be
possible initially, with large hail and damaging winds possible
through early evening generally west of a Haskell, Sterling City to
Ozona line.
Breezy south to southeast winds will occur again today, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s. For the overnight
period, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with lows in the
middle 60s.
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
The upper low developing over the southwest United States Sunday,
will bring increasing low level moisture and instability to the
region. There is slight risk for severe weather is Sunday
afternoon and evening as storms develop off a dryline from Iraan
to Sterling City to Sweetwater, then move east. The main severe
potential is across the Big Country, along and north of I-20,
however, isolated severe thunderstorms will also be possible
farther south. The main threats are large hail and damaging winds.
A few thunderstorms will remain possible Monday in extreme
eastern sections of West Central Texas as a surface trough moves
east bringing in dry southwest winds. Highs in the upper 80s are
expected Monday, with lower 90s Tuesday, with dry air and full
sun.
Moisture returns Tuesday night, with a weak cold front Wednesday
night. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night, with the best chance along and east
of a Sonora to Brownwood line. Isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible through the end of the week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 84 65 86 63 / 10 20 30 50
San Angelo 86 66 87 63 / 20 20 30 50
Junction 85 65 84 67 / 10 20 30 40
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
313 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
A COLD FRONT WAS WORKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS OF 2 AM...THIS FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTH OF GREEN
BAY THROUGH LA CROSSE WI...TO OELWIEN IA. STILL SEEING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ALSO SEEING A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP FROM SD THROUGH SOUTHERN MN
INTO NORTHERN WI ALONG SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. INTERESTINGLY
ENOUGH...STARTING TO SEE SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT/STABLE AIR ACROSS EASTERN MN/WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS IS
ACTUALLY DUE TO SMOKE FROM WILDFIRE IN NORTHERN MN. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING STILL PRETTY WARM
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN NORTH CENTRAL WI BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...TO THE UPPER 60S/70 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST WI AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FOR TODAY...WILL SEE THE BULK OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT STILL MAY SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI THROUGH NOON AS SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUE OVER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME OF THAT
AFOREMENTIONED SMOKE AS WELL. MODEL WIND/DISPERSION LOOKS LIKE IT
KEEPS SMOKE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ALSO LOOKS LIKE
THIS SMOKE SHOULD MIX OUT BY 9-10AM AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT.
OTHERWISE...DRY/COOL NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OUT OF THE DAKOTAS/MN. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY
IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE.
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MOTHERS DAY
SUNDAY. LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR MOM WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER NOSES INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL/SURFACE LOW
PUSHING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
PLAN ON SOME ACTIVE WEATHER AND COOLER CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST//MOST FOCUSED IN THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME// AS
THAT CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY OPENS INTO A TROUGH AND LIFTS/MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEK LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
THE COLD FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE
THROUGH KRST BY 06Z AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER FOR KLSE. THE WINDS
WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THE 07.03Z RUN OF THE HRRR STILL TRIES TO RAPIDLY EXPAND
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER AND THEN
MOVE SOME OF THAT IN LATE TONIGHT. THE 07.02Z RUN OF CR-HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE MUCH BETTER IDEA OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY IN THAT REGION
AND WHILE ALSO EXPANDING THE COVERAGE...DROPS IT SOUTH OF BOTH
SITES OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER IS NOT ALL THAT ROBUST...FEEL THE CR-HRRR HAS A
BETTER SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP BOTH SITES DRY OVERNIGHT. HIGH VFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR
SKIES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...(FOR TODAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MN. WITH DAYTIME
MIXING...LOOK FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DIP INTO THE 20/S BOTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THANKFULLY WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN THOSE SEEN ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LITTLE BIT OF A FIRE
CONCERN EXISTS FOR THOSE AREAS NORTH OF I-94 THAT ARE NOT AS FAR
ALONG IN THE GREEN-UP PROCESS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1144 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
OK...WHO TURNED ON THE SWITCH FOR SUMMER? JUST A DOWNRIGHT HOT DAY
OUT THERE BY EARLY MAY STANDARDS...WITH DEEP MIXING INTO PRONOUNCED
THERMAL RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE/COLD FRONT
SENDING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE 80S AND EVEN
LOWER90. AS EXPECTED...DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT VERY WELL (EVEN
MORE THAN OUR AGGRESSIVE FORECAST)...COURTESY OF DEEP MIXING TO
AROUND 700MB AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HOLDING FIRM THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SPEAKING OF THAT FRONT...THE BIG
QUESTION REMAINS COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIPITATION AS THAT BOUNDARY
DROPS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AS OF 2 PM...NOT
SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION ONGOING WITH THE FRONT BUT DO
SEE SOME HINTS OF BUBBLING ACCAS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES
SPIKING TO AROUND 500 J/KG IN A VERY NARROW MOISTURE AXIS JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THAT NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA ROUGHLY IN THE 01Z-10Z TIME FRAME PER NEAR TERM GUIDANCE/
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WITH CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 800 TO MAYBE 1000
J/KG POSSIBLE IF (THAT`S A BIG IF) WE CAN POOL SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...THOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL WANE WITH TIME AS WE PUSH DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF AN UPPER SUPPORT WITH ALL FORCING FROM A SHORTWAVE
PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT MODEST LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE WON`T HURT. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE CURRENT
AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA CATCHES UP TO THE BOUNDARY TO DRIVE AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY
HIGHER INSTABILITY THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL IN ALL...PLAN TO KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING AND FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT IN LINE WITH CURRENT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS
WHICH SUGGEST A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING JUST ON OUR DOORSTEP...
BUT WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY SHOCKED IF NOT A LOT ENDS UP HAPPENING GIVEN
JUST HOW DRY THINGS ARE OUT THERE. STRONGLY INVERTED-V AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNDRAFT CAPE PUSHING 1000 J/KG ARGUES FOR SOME GUSTY
WIND POTENTIAL NEAR ANY CONVECTION...AND PERHAPS EVEN A DRY
LIGHTNING THREAT GIVEN CLOUD BASES AT OR ABOVE 9KFT AND EXTREME
DRYNESS BELOW THAT. A VERY MILD EVENING/FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT IN
STORE BEFORE TEMPS SLOWLY TAKE A DIP BACK THROUGH THE MORE
COMFORTABLE 50S THROUGH SUNRISE.
LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY INTO
NORTHEAST IA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI WILL END BY 10 AM OR SO...WITH
NOTABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVING THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING TAKES HOLD AND WINDS HOLD FROM THE NORTH. DEEPER MIXING INTO
INCREASED DRYING ALOFT SHOULD DELIVER SOME VERY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND...AS RAIN CHANCES BECOME
RELEGATED TO CENTRAL IOWA ALONG A TIGHTER FRONTOGENETIC AXIS.
OVERALL...LOOKING LIKE AN AWESOME WEATHER WEEKEND FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
THE NEW WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BRING A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME BACK
TO THE AREA...AS CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
GRADUALLY OPENS UP WHILE LIFTING TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY TUESDAY. THAT SETUP WILL LIFT BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A
WARM FRONT BACK NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA WITH TIME...WITH AN UPTICK IN
DEEPER MOISTURE AND VARIOUS BOUTS OF BETTER FORCING LIKELY
DELIVERING ROUNDS OF RAINFALL INTO MIDWEEK. STILL SOME QUESTION
ABOUT JUST WHEN PRECIPITATION MIGHT ARRIVE...WITH INITIAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION/LIFT GOING INTO SATURATION OF A QUITE DRY
AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. PER RECENT TRENDS...IT
WOULD APPEAR THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND...WITH SOME CHANCE FOR
THUNDER AT TIMES PENDING DEGREE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. CAN
ENVISION THE BETTER THUNDER THREAT BISECTING THE CWA SOUTH TO
NORTH WITH NORTHERN AREAS WELL REMOVED FROM THE WARM
FRONT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT REMAINS ON THE
LOWER SIDE. SPEAKING OF LOWER CONFIDENCE...TEMPS IN THIS SETUP FOR
EARLY/MID WEEK ARE TRICKY AS ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUDS COULD
EASILY HOLD READINGS DOWN QUITE A BIT. FOR NOW...A CONSENSUS BLEND
ARGUES FOR SEASONABLE READINGS INTO THE 60S EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
THE COLD FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE
THROUGH KRST BY 06Z AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER FOR KLSE. THE WINDS
WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THE 07.03Z RUN OF THE HRRR STILL TRIES TO RAPIDLY EXPAND
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER AND THEN
MOVE SOME OF THAT IN LATE TONIGHT. THE 07.02Z RUN OF CR-HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE MUCH BETTER IDEA OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY IN THAT REGION
AND WHILE ALSO EXPANDING THE COVERAGE...DROPS IT SOUTH OF BOTH
SITES OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER IS NOT ALL THAT ROBUST...FEEL THE CR-HRRR HAS A
BETTER SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP BOTH SITES DRY OVERNIGHT. HIGH VFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR
SKIES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH DEEP MIXING SENDING RH VALUES DOWN THROUGH THE 15-20
PERCENT RANGE AND TEMPERATURES SOARING THROUGH THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL ACCELERATE IN THE WAKE OF A
PASSING COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL EXPECT WE MAY SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THAT FRONT
PASSES...BUT WITH VERY HIGH CLOUD BASES AND LOTS OF DRY AIR
BELOW...DO HAVE SOME CONCERN BOTH WITH THE THREAT FOR SOME DRY
LIGHTNING AS WELL AS INCREASED GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY SHOWERS AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS OUT OF A 10KFT CLOUD BASE. COOLER CONDITIONS
BUT CONTINUED LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH WINDS MUCH LIGHTER THAN THOSE NOTED TODAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...LAWRENCE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
906 AM PDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.Synopsis...
Another day of showers today then a drying trend with only a
slight chance of showers Sunday. Temperatures warming into 80s
next week.
.Short Term Discussion...
Numerous showers this morning spreading southwest over the area.
The models are indicating during the daytime conditions too
stable for thunderstorms in the valley so have removed them for
today but left slight chances over the mountains. The HRRR is
indicating some possible convection this evening dropping down
from the north and into Shasta County. Have spread possibility for
thunderstorms over the Mountains of Shasta County for now and will
reassess the possibility of convection moving into the northern
end of the Sacramento Valley with the afternoon package.
The low will be moving northeastward away from Southern California
tonight and showers should gradually diminish over the interior
late tonight and Sunday. Lingering showers are still possible on
Sunday but mainly over the Sierra.
Temperatures will be warming each day Sunday through Tuesday.
70`s for the valley Sunday with 80s throughout the valley by
Tuesday. The mountains with warm mid 50s to mid 60s for Sunday and
warm each day into the mid 60s to mid 70s by Tuesday. Dry
conditions are expected for the first part of next week.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Dry conditions with above normal temperatures expected through the
extended period under upper level high pressure. An upper level
low dropping through the Pacific Northwest will bring a slight
cooling trend through at the end of the week but precipitation is
expected to remain north of the forecast area. Generally light
southerly winds are expected through the extended period.
A Pacific low moving in off the coast could bring a chance of
precipitation early next week but extended models differ. At this
time this system looks mainly dry.
&&
.AVIATION...
Upper low over SoCal will continue to pivot isolated showers over Norcal
with a threat of afternoon thunderstorms. VFR conditions TAF sites
next 24 hours except occasional MVFR in showers or thunderstorms.
Mainly IFR over mountains. South winds up to 15 mph except gusty
near thunderstorms.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
410 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
CURRENTLY...CLOUDS ARE THICKENING ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION STAYING TO OUR WEST ACROSS KGJT
AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE MILD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
TODAY...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO TO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID
AND LATE MORNING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH THE REST OF OUR CWA MAINLY DRY INTO
THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE LITTLE IF ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. BUT PORTIONS
OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND KIOWA COUNTY COULD GET IN ON SOME
ACTIVITY. CURRENT POP FORECAST COULD BE A LITTLE HEAVY HANDED IN THE
PIKES PEAK REGIONS WITH LATEST HRRR AND NAM INDICATING THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE PALMER DIVIDE IN
NORTHERN COLORADO. SPC HAS A SMALL PART OF EL PASO COUNTY AND KIOWA
COUNTY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM...WHICH COULD
MATERIALIZE IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AROUND FOR PEAK HEATING. THERE
WILL BE STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BY LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE CONCERNED...THEY WILL BE MET ACROSS A PART OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS...BUT LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES SAY THE FUELS
ARE NOT CRITICAL AND THEREFORE NOT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.
THEREFORE...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY.
HOWEVER...WE RECOMMEND THAT OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES BE DELAYED
UNTIL IT IS NOT SO DRY AND WINDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS TO THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CARRY INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN AND THE PIKES PEAK REGION...THEN
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...AS THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH THE SYSTEM CARRIES NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY IN THE EVENING. LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE I-
25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS...AND LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
...COOLER...UNSETTLED...
MODELS SHOW A BROAD UPPER LOW TRAVERSING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. UPPER LOW CENTER TRACKS PRETTY FAR NORTH...SO LIKELY NOT A
HUGE PRECIPITATION MAKER FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH OF
MONARCH PASS...AND THE PIKES PEAK REGION COULD SEE SOME PERIODS OF
DECENT PRECIPITATION...BOTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO...LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE HIT OR MISS. SOME
AREAS MAY SEE A DECENT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT OTHERS MAY NOT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RINSE...WASH...REPEAT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LINED UP
TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY. MODELS HAVE CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...AND THEN TRACKING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ROTATING STORMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME BUT THE PATTERN WILL BE THERE
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THEN TRANSITION TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY
WEEK`S END.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP BY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE NEAR KALS AND KCOS AFTER 18Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
750 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT LINGERS SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INCREASED POPS ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT AS COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. LAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE NOT DOING A GOOD JOB AT INITIALIZING THESE
SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING IN AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MORE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.
OCCLUDED FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE DELMARVA REGION THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT AND LOW APPEAR
TO WASH OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE
COAST AND OPEN UP.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS WHEN/IF LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT
AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES ULTIMATELY GET. IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST
CHANCE OF ANY SUNSHINE IS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WEAKENS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES. IF
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S MAY BE TOO LOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE DECREASING POPS INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THE AREA SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE BRIEF AS STRATUS
MAY REDEVELOP AFTER SUNSET.
ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT.
THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AND INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE NYC METRO
AROUND DAY BREAK SUNDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE
FRONT FOR MAINLY LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. THE FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING.
MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE END UP MOSTLY SUNNY. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FAIRLY STRONG MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
AROUND 70 IN THE NYC/NJ METRO. THESE READINGS ARE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGH THAN SUNDAY...IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRENDS IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HAVE LOWERED POPS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH IS IN GOOD
COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING ANY PRECIP IS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND MAY HINDER THE
PROGRESS OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
MODELS AGREE WITH RIDGING ALOFT ON THURSDAY. WILL THEREFORE WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS...BUT THINKING IS THAT HIGH TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
UPWARD FURTHER. A COLD FRONT COULD THEN BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK OCCLUDED
FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST OR WASHES OUT THIS AFT/EVE. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS THIS MORNING...WITH VSBY VARYING BETWEEN
VFR AND MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
CIGS AND VFR VSBY EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
VFR CIGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY CITY TERMINALS.
UNCERTAINTY IN CONDS INCREASES TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS
TO CONTINUE/DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
TERMINALS. IF STRATUS DOES NOT DEVELOP...THEN MVFR/IFR GROUND FOG
WOULD BE FAVORED THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
E/NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING GRADUALLY VEER SE AND THEN S
FOR MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS OCCLUDED FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST OR WASHES OUT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING WITH
CONDITION IMPROVING TO VFR IN WAKE AND -SHRA ENDING. NW WINDS 15
TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS 30 TO POSSIBLE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVE.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE...VFR. SUB VFR IN RAIN IS POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP TUE NIGHT.
.WED...SUB VFR IN RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE CONVERTED SCA ON THE OCEAN TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS
WINDS WILL FALL WELL BELOW 25 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WESTERN
OCEAN RUNS UNTIL NOON AND THE CENTRAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HAVE EXTENDED THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
A LINGERING SE SWELL SHOULD KEEP SEES AROUND 5 FT.
GUSTY WNW FLOW ON SUNDAY MAY BRING SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT
ON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. OCEAN SEAS WILL LIKELY
BE AROUND 5 FT AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS ON ALL WATERS SHOULD FALL
BELOW SCA LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE OCEAN DURING THIS TIME
WILL PROBABLY BE UP TO 5 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT AT SOME
POINT DURING SUNDAY NIGHT.
A GUSTY SW FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE OCEAN MONDAY AND WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (GREATER THAN 0.50 INCHES) IS EXPECTED
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH HIGH ASTRO TIDES REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY...SURGE
SHOULD DROP TO 1/2 TO 1 FT. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF WESTERN LI...QUEENS...BROOKLYN...LOWER NY HARBOR...THE TIDAL
WATERWAYS OF NE NJ...AND COASTAL FAIRFIELD AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR MODERATE FLOODING ALONG THE MOST
VULNERABLE SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES OF NASSAU COUNTY. LOCALIZED MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES OF
NORTHWEST LI AND COASTAL NEW HAVEN. WATER LEVEL ELSEWHERE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...TIDES AND SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT
RESIDUAL LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL LIKELY ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU AND POSSIBLE IN QUEENS. WATER LEVELS
SHOULD STAY BELOW MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ELSEWHERE WITH OFFSHORE WINDS.
WATER LEVELS SHOULD FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW MINOR LEVELS MONDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR CTZ009.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NYZ071.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NYZ074-075-178-179.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC/DS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
609 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT LINGERS SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INCREASED POPS ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT AS COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. LAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE NOT DOING A GOOD JOB AT INITIALIZING THESE
SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING IN AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MORE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.
OCCLUDED FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE DELMARVA REGION THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT AND LOW APPEAR
TO WASH OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE
COAST AND OPEN UP.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS WHEN/IF LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT
AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES ULTIMATELY GET. IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST
CHANCE OF ANY SUNSHINE IS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WEAKENS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES. IF
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S MAY BE TOO LOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE DECREASING POPS INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THE AREA SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE BRIEF AS STRATUS
MAY REDEVELOP AFTER SUNSET.
ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT.
THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AND INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE NYC METRO
AROUND DAY BREAK SUNDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE
FRONT FOR MAINLY LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. THE FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING.
MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE END UP MOSTLY SUNNY. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FAIRLY STRONG MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
AROUND 70 IN THE NYC/NJ METRO. THESE READINGS ARE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGH THAN SUNDAY...IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRENDS IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HAVE LOWERED POPS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH IS IN GOOD
COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING ANY PRECIP IS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND MAY HINDER THE
PROGRESS OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
MODELS AGREE WITH RIDGING ALOFT ON THURSDAY. WILL THEREFORE WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS...BUT THINKING IS THAT HIGH TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
UPWARD FURTHER. A COLD FRONT COULD THEN BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING
WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
OCCLUDED FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST OR WASHES OUT THIS
AFT/EVE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH VSBY VARYING BETWEEN
MVFR AND IFR IN IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE. LOCAL AND TRANSIENT LIFR/VLIFR
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE LOW CIGS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS IMPROVE. POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TO RETURN
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS.
E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING...SLIGHTLY STRONGER AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS...SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER SE AND THEN S FOR MOST
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST OR WASHES OUT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FOR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS. INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE...VFR. SUB VFR IN RAIN IS POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP TUE NIGHT.
.WED...SUB VFR IN RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE CONVERTED SCA ON THE OCEAN TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS
WINDS WILL FALL WELL BELOW 25 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WESTERN
OCEAN RUNS UNTIL NOON AND THE CENTRAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HAVE EXTENDED THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
A LINGERING SE SWELL SHOULD KEEP SEES AROUND 5 FT.
GUSTY WNW FLOW ON SUNDAY MAY BRING SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT
ON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. OCEAN SEAS WILL LIKELY
BE AROUND 5 FT AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS ON ALL WATERS SHOULD FALL
BELOW SCA LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE OCEAN DURING THIS TIME
WILL PROBABLY BE UP TO 5 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT AT SOME
POINT DURING SUNDAY NIGHT.
A GUSTY SW FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE OCEAN MONDAY AND WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (GREATER THAN 0.50 INCHES) IS EXPECTED
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH HIGH ASTRO TIDES REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY...SURGE
SHOULD DROP TO 1/2 TO 1 FT. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF WESTERN LI...QUEENS...BROOKLYN...LOWER NY HARBOR...THE TIDAL
WATERWAYS OF NE NJ...AND COASTAL FAIRFIELD AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR MODERATE FLOODING ALONG THE MOST
VULNERABLE SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES OF NASSAU COUNTY. LOCALIZED MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES OF
NORTHWEST LI AND COASTAL NEW HAVEN. WATER LEVEL ELSEWHERE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...TIDES AND SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT
RESIDUAL LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL LIKELY ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU AND POSSIBLE IN QUEENS. WATER LEVELS
SHOULD STAY BELOW MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ELSEWHERE WITH OFFSHORE WINDS.
WATER LEVELS SHOULD FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW MINOR LEVELS MONDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR CTZ009.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NYZ071.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NYZ074-075-178-179.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC/DS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1053 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
1045 AM CDT
THE COLD FRONT SHOWS UP VERY NICELY ON KLOT WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING...CRUISING ALONG INTO KANKAKEE...GRUNDY...AND LASALLE
COUNTIES ALREADY. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS
TODAY. THERE IS SOME WEAK ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON SUCH THAT SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH. INSTABILITY LINGERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FROM
SOUTHERN LASALLE/LIVINGSTON EAST TO BENTON COUNTY AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES THOUGH...BUT WITH THE FIRST WAVE THIS
AFTERNOON APPEARS THE WINDOW FOR MUCH WILL BE SMALL AND LIMITED TO
THE FIRST FEW AFTERNOON HOURS. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN...JUST IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS...BUT THIS WILL AGAIN BE FOCUSED IN OUR SOUTHERN/WESTERN
ZONES. OTHERWISE EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL WITH THE FRONT THEN HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY TODAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
KMD
&&
.SHORT TERM...
343 AM CDT
THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE NEAR TERM...ADDITIONAL CHANCES LATER TODAY...AND
TEMP TRENDS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDGING ALONG WEAK UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION HELPING TO STEER SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THIS TIME. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICTING THIS AREA OF PRECIP SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST
FROM AREAS NEAR ROCKFORD EAST TO THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. AS THIS
DEVELOPMENT HAS APPROACHED OVERNIGHT IT HAS BEEN WEAKENING...PER
WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND DIMINISHING LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE BUT MORE SO AS
MAIN FORCING/WAVE EXIT TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH FURTHER DIMINISHING
IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THIS SHOULD STILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER TO PUSH THROUGH REMAINING AREAS IN
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE MAINTAINED THUNDER WORDING THIS MORNING
DESPITE THE DIMINISHING TREND...GIVEN INSTABILITY AXIS CONTINUES
TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT.
BEYOND THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...CONFIDENCE DOES LOWER WITH
REGARDS TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS SHORT
TERM/HIRES GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY VARIES. HOWEVER...LIKELY
SCENARIO WILL BE FOR THIS INITIAL PRECIP TO EXIT/DIMINISH BUT
WITH THEN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG
SOUTHWARD MOVING SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND INITIALLY BE MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT THEN FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH INTO MID
MORNING AS THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. WITH THE LACK OF COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...HAVE KEPT POPS LOW. A DRY PERIOD WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL FOCUS TURNS TOWARDS
UPSTREAM FAST MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR
ADDITIONAL AND MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT
LIKELY TO BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THAT TIME THIS
STRONGER DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. DO
BRING BACK CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION OF THUNDER FROM AREAS IN
LASALLE...LIVINGSTON...AND FORD FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA MORE SO IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LINGERING
MID LEVEL BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE COULD AID IN SOME LIGHT/ISOLATED
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND
HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING.
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH TEMP TRENDS THIS MORNING...AS ANTICIPATED
BOUNDARY TO USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS TO THE CWA. THIS COULD LIKELY
OCCUR QUICK TOO...WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35
MPH THIS MORNING POST FROPA. THESE STRONG WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS
WILL BE FELT THIS MOST FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE...WHERE TEMPS WILL
LIKELY GO FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOW 50S IN A MATTER OF HOURS. AREAS
ELSEWHERE WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT SHOULD STILL STAY IN THE
60S.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
343 AM CDT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKING UNSETTLED AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE
CONUS DRAWS CLOSER TO THE REGION. SHOULD SEE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MORE SO ON MONDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD SWING THROUGH. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AT MOST WEAK
AND DONT REALLY ANTICIPATE THUNDER TO REALLY BE PRESENT SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THUNDER WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE ON MONDAY WITH
A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS PUSHING EAST. STILL LOWER
CONFIDENCE WITH HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE THROUGH MID WEEK BUT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PRECIP/CONVECTION CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH TOWARDS KRFD AND TO
THE WEST...AND MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
THE CONVECTION TRENDS WILL REMAIN WEST OR ORD/MDW THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THE
POTENTIAL REMAINS THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND SLIDE SOUTH
WITH THE FRONT. COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GREAT...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE VCSH RATHER THAN PREVAILING PRECIP. THE FRONT HAS
ALREADY PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND WINDS HAVE QUICKLY
FLIPPED FROM WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EXPECT THIS TO ARRIVE AT
ORD/MDW AROUND THE 14Z TIMEFRAME AND INITIALLY PUSH WINDS TO A
010 DIRECTION. THEN BY 15Z WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY TO A
030 OR 040 DIRECTION. IN ADDITION WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-16KT AND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25KT. GUSTS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN
17-20KT AT TIMES. PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISH AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES BY MIDDAY...AND WINDS TURN TO 050-060 DIRECTION. THEN
LATER TONIGHT EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME VARIABLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
307 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE STRAITS OF MACKINAW WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING WEST/SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE
EAST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH WINDS QUICKLY TURNING FROM NORTHWEST/WEST TO
NORTH. THE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND SUGGEST SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30KT WITH PERHAPS A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR THE OPEN WATERS AND MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE GRADIENT IS BRIEF AND EXPECT BY LATE AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL
HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH. WITH THE WIND DIRECTION TURNING NORTH THE
WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE ESPECIALLY
ALONG BOTH THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP SMALL CRAFT HAZARDS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVES TO ALSO SUBSIDE
TO AROUND 1 TO 3 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1038 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1038 AM CDT Sat May 7 2016
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to track southeastward
along/north of the I-74 corridor this morning. 1525z radar imagery
shows the most concentrated area of showers from Champaign to
Danville...with a lull in the precip further upstream. HRRR has
been advertising this temporary break in the precip quite well
this morning...focusing its main convective development further
upstream across western Iowa. Latest radar mosaic is already
showing showers/thunder forming north of Kansas City across
western Iowa/northwest Missouri...and this activity is expected
to track/develop further E/SE into central Illinois this
afternoon. HRRR suggests scattered thunderstorms will track
along/south of a Macomb...to Lincoln...to Paris line between
20z/3pm and 01z/8pm. With surface dewpoints pooling in the upper
50s/lower 60s ahead of the slowly approaching cold front, SBCAPES
will climb to around 1500J/kg. At the same time, 0-6km bulk shear
will increase to between 40 and 50kt. The combination of moderate
instability/shear will be sufficient to support a few strong to
potentially severe storms across the southern half of the KILX CWA
late this afternoon...with the main threats being gusty winds and
large hail. Current forecast has a good handle on the situation,
so only minor tweaks are needed at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT Sat May 7 2016
Pcpn remnants will continue to move southeast across northern IL and
into northern parts of central IL this morning. These showers and
thunderstorms formed along a sfc boundary that is still located back
across IA. The low pressure area associated with this front will
move across the Great Lakes region, dragging the front into central
IL later this morning. This will become the primary focus for
additional shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon.
Scattered showers will remain possible in northern parts of the CWA
this morning and into early this afternoon. Believe pcpn will become
likely this afternoon along and south of a Jacksonville to Paris
line. Believe this is where the best forcing and dynamics will be
for this afternoon. There is a slight risk that some of the storms
this afternoon could be severe with hail and damaging winds
possible.
Temps today will be divided by the front with highest temps in the
lower 80s south of the front and lower to middle 70s north of the
front in the Peoria and Bloomington/Normal areas. Winds will be out
of the west ahead of the front, but then become northerly once the
front passes.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT Sat May 7 2016
After a recent dry stretch of weather over central and southeast IL,
more unsettled weather pattern takes shape starting today through at
least the middle of next week. Have likely chances of showers and
thunderstorms over southern CWA early this evening with slight
chance of severe storms from a Jacksonville to Springfield to Paris
line south with 15% risk of large hail and damaging winds into mid
evening. SPC appears to side toward the more unstable NAM model
which has MUCapes of 1-2k ft in southern CWA late this afternoon and
early evening. Instability wanes and shifts south of CWA by
03Z/10 pm as frontal boundary shifts further south of central IL
and convection chances to diminish from north to south during late
evening and overnight. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 50s with
upper 40s to near 50F from I-74 north.
Weak surface high pressure of 1016 mb drifting east across the Ohio
river valley Sunday and frontal boundary to start shifting back to
the northeast toward southwest IL Sunday afternoon. So slight
chances of showers/thunderstorms Sunday morning increase to 30-40%
chances Sunday afternoon over sw CWA south of I-74. Cooler highs
Sunday in the upper 60s with sw CWA around 70F, which is 3-5F cooler
than normal. Warm front to lift northeast into central IL overnight
Sunday night with likely chances of showers and thunderstorms, then
the warm front lifts north of CWA on Monday with warmer highs in the
70s and more humid air returning (dewpoints rising into lower 60s),
along with continued high chances of showers and thunderstorms with
highest pops west of I-57. SPC has marginal risk of severe storms
from Springfield sw late Monday afternoon and evening where better
instability is.
Low pressure over the central plains on Monday slowly lifts
northward on Tuesday and Tue night keeping IL in a warm/moist
southerly flow along with continued high chances of showers and
thunderstorms in unstable airmass. Highs Tue mostly in the mid 70s.
Warm and unsettled weather pattern looks to continue into Wed with
more showers and thunderstorms, then a cold front pushes east by Wed
night and best chances of convection starts to shift east of IL and
temps to cool back down a bit but still be pretty close to normal
levels. Only have slight pops on Thu night and Fri so most areas
appear dry then.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 656 AM CDT Sat May 7 2016
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across the area this
morning. Will have VCTS at PIA/BMI/CMI with just VCSH at
SPI/DEC...all based on radar trends. There should be a short break
in the pcpn later this morning as the front moves south of the TAF
sites. When this occurs, winds will go from west-southwest to
northwest with some gusts around 20kts. The front will become
active again this afternoon and given the uncertainty as to where
it will be and where storms will develop on the front, have just
gone with VCTS at all sites for now. Later forecasts can refine as
more details become known. Storms will diminish in the evening,
but scattered showers will still be around all TAF sites. At
PIA/BMI/CMI pcpn should diminish for the overnight hours. However,
based on model data at SPI/DEC the pcpn could continue into the
overnight hours. Winds will become lighter during the evening and
some sites could be variable. Kept everyone with VFR conditions
through the next 24hrs.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
611 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
THEN FILTER IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TO THE LOW TO MID 70S SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
FRONT EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR BACK INTO NW WI AND DOWN THRU
SOUTHERN MN. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SOME TSRA IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
IN VICINITY OF FRONTAL WAVE. SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT DETACHED WELL TO THE NORTH AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF EXTENDING
DOWN THRU ONTARIO WITH PARENT SURFACE LOW POSITIONED IN THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NW CWA BORDER BY 12Z THIS MORNING AS
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. BETTER
AERIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA IN
VICINITY OF FRONTAL WAVE AS COLD FRONT BECOMES TAKES ON A MORE E/W
ORIENTATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH WHICH WILL DIMINISH MASS
CONVERGENCE/FORCING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED AS SURFACE
HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BLOCK ANY RETURN FLOW.
TIMING OF FROPA ALSO UNFAVORABLE/TOO EARLY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
PERHAPS FAR SE CWA WHERE HIRES GUIDANCE HAS MID-DAY CAPES REACHING
1000J/KG. THE ABOVE FACTORS HAS LATEST RUNS OF CONSSHORT YIELDING
LOW CHANCE POPS AND A FASTER EXIT FROM THE CWA THAN CURRENT
FORECAST...WILL WORK TO BLEND THE TWO AND HAVE PRECIP ENDING BY
00Z SUN. MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE NW CWA WILL HAVE NON-
DIURNAL TREND IN TEMPS WITH NW FLOW OFF THE LAKE...KEEPING TEMPS
NEARLY STEADY AT 55-60F WHILE LOWER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SE
HALF OF THE CWA. FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND AND WILL PROVIDE FOR FAIR
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR MOTHERS DAY ON SUNDAY. FAVOR
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT OVER MODEL BLEND AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SHALLOW SURFACE BASED INVERSION WILL DECOUPLE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
FOCUS SHIFTS TO SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW LIFTING UP INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...SUBSEQUENT LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL HAVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WILL OPEN UP
DEEP MOISTURE RETURN FEEDING INTO THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT TO BE SLOW TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 300K SURFACE IS
QUITE WEAK INITIALLY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW UNABLE TO MAKE ANY EASTWARD
PROGRESS IN PRESENCE OF STRONG DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE...KEEPING
MAIN TROF AXIS BACK TO THE WEST. RESULT WILL BE AN OCCLUDING
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS FROM WHICH PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO
THURSDAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE PATTERN ON VARYING MODEL SOLNS WRT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT. WILL TREND TOWARD DRY FORECAST BY DAY 7 AS
ENSEMBLE MEANS DROPPING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO DROP SE THROUGH KSBN MID MORNING
AND KFWA TOWARD MIDDAY. CHANCE FOR SCT SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE LARGER IMPACT BEING
VEERING/INCREASING WINDS POST-FRONTAL. WINDS THEN QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS GRADIENT/MIXING RELAXES. MAINLY
VFR OTHEREWISE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
AREA OF DECREASED VISIBILITIES DUE TO SMOKE CAUGHT IN AN INVERSION
LAYER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LEAD TO SMOKE BEING ADDED TO THE
GRIDS. EVENTUAL HEATING SHOULD MIX OUT THE SMOKE LATER THIS
MORNING. SOME VSBYS WERE REDUCED TO UNDER 2 MILES ACROSS NORTHERN
IA THIS MORNING. WILL ADDRESS THE NEED FOR A SPS SHORTLY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WAS SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE NORTH OF DULUTH
WAS LEADING TO HAZE ACROSS MINNEAPOLIS THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS
SMOKE COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY DAYBREAK. THE
COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH WILL DRIVE OUR WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
SOUTH...STALLS OUT...AND THEN RETURNS TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AM COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
FRONT SAGS SOUTH.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CLOUDS TODAY.
AN APPROACHING H5 WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND LIKELY
LEAD TO CONVECTION. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF QPF. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP
COVERAGE AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. SPC HAS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE LIMITING FACTOR IN SEVERE WEATHER IS THAT THE
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND BY THE
TIME THE WAVE AND INCREASED SHEAR MAKES ITS WAY IN THE PARAMETERS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE OVERLAID OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. A
LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. COULD SEE A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH SUB
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH
TRIES TO INTENSIFY CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE LOCATION OF THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL DRIVE
WHAT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WE WILL HAVE. AT THIS TIME IT SUGGESTS
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND THEN BEGIN TO RETURN
TO THE AREA AS THE WESTERN MOST LOW OF THE OMEGA BLOCK BEGINS TO
EJECT OUT OVER THE PLAINS. AGAIN MOISTURE WILL BE OUR LIMITING
FACTOR FOR ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
A WILDFIRE NORTH OF DULUTH HAS LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
THE SMELL OF SMOKE IN THE TWIN CITIES THIS MORNING. WITH A
SOUTHERN WIND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD MOVE INTO OUR CWA. AT
THIS TIME WILL NOT ADD ANY HAZE TO THE FORECAST...LATER SHIFTS MAY
OR LATER UPDATES ON MY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADD IT DEPENDING ON ITS
LOCATION THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP INTO NEXT WEEK.
OVERVIEW...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN STALLING THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE THERE ARE THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES...NAMELY THE GFS IS DEEPEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW MONDAY
AND NAM AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE AS DEEP...THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS
THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING INTO OUR SERVICE AREA LATE
MONDAY.
SUNDAY...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLIDING EAST AND LIMITED MOISTURE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALL MODELS DEPICT AN OVERRUNNING
EVENT WITH RAIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE WARM
FRONT...BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO BE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA MONDAY. TIMING WITH THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE DURING PEAK HEATING
AND THE MAIN UPPER WAVE LIFTING OUT WOULD FAVOR STRONGER STORMS.
HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP LINGERING
WELL INTO THE DAY COULD BE INHIBITING FACTORS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SPECIFICS
DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS TIME PERIOD AS MODELS VARY
CONSIDERABLY ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE FEATURES.
COLD FRONT AND MAIN SURFACE LOW SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA LATE
IN THIS TIME FRAME. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT CONTINUED PERIODS OF
RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. ECMWF
DOES GENERATE SOME SHOWERS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL LEAVE OUT TS FROM THE TAFS UNTIL IT
IS CLEAR THE SITE WILL SEE THUNDER AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY TAF SITES
SEEING TSRA IS LOW. WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE SHOWERS TODAY WILL
CHANGE AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT TRIES
TO PUSH NORTH. SMOKE HAS BEEN REPORTED HEADING SOUTH FROM A
WILDFIRE...AT THIS TIME NOT CONFIDENT ON THE SMOKE MAKING IT TO
THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1050 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON SATELLITE...RADAR...
AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS HAVE ALSO BEEN MADE TO
POPS IN THE EVENING TO BETTER ALIGN WITH SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
AND THE 12Z NAM WHICH POINTS TOWARD CONVECTION IN THE NORTH
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
BEFORE SUNSET. AS MOISTURE AND SHEAR INCREASE THIS EVENING...A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA MAINLY. WBZ HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
9KFT AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS
WELL SO LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
ISSUED AN UPDATED TO FINE TUNE THE NEAR TERM TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON
THE LAST SATELLITE IMAGE. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRY WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. CURRENTLY THIS BOUNDARY IS DRY WITH JUST MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE CWA ARE EXHIBITING A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
VARYING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE LOW
50S ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL. WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
THIS PART OF KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING AND PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN
RATHER LIMITED THUS FAR.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEVOLUTION OF THE
CONUS OMEGA BLOCK AS THE EASTERN LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND THE WESTERN ONE OPENS UP TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
EASTERN LOW/S DEPARTURE...HEIGHTS WILL CLIMB TODAY. MEANWHILE...A
DIGGING CLOSED LOW WILL DESCEND INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE
HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY PUSHING A MINOR SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT. RATHER
FLAT AND FAST FLOW FOLLOWS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHERN TROUGH SPINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR EARLY AND NAM THEREAFTER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUICK WARM UP FOLLOWING A CHILLY
START FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SLIPS THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZED AIR MASS ACROSS THE
CWA LATER IN THE DAY. LIS WILL FALL TO -5 OR LESS WHILE CAPE
CLIMBS TO 1500 J/KG OR GREATER ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING WITH
HEIGHTS. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD SINKING BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO AND ALSO A PARTNER
E-MAIL. THOUGH POPS WILL FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE STALLING
COLD FRONT WILL SIT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD KEEP THE ELEVATION BASED DIFFERENCES TO A MINIMUM FOR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WHILE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DIFFERENCES
ACROSS THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE LOWS. LIKEWISE ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S SOUTH ON SUNDAY
AND COOLER MID 60S NORTHEAST.
USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST
ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND MINIMAL TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS
TO ADJUST FOR TIMING OF THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH SOLUTIONS DIVERGING A BIT LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SEEING MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SMALLER
SCALE FEATURES...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFTER THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION DAY ONE...MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
APPROACHING TROUGH THAT MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THIS TROUGH IS PART OF A LARGER CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL PHASE
WITH...BE REINFORCED BY ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ABOUT THE SAME
TIME. OVERALL RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL TRANSITION OF LARGER SYSTEM
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...A STALLED OUT COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
HEART OF OUR CWA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY THERE WILL ONLY BE A
BRIEF LULL IN THE THREAT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE WEEK...
FIRST FROM THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA AND SECOND FROM
THE TROUGH THAT ROTATES ACROSS THE MIDWEST TUESDAY. THEREAFTER FLOW
IS SOMEWHAT SPLIT UNTIL LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA BY THU INTO FRI.
OVERALL TEMPS APPEAR TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. POPS APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THEN
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 21Z. A WEAK DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE FROM HIGH CLOUDS PRIOR TO THAT TIME. HOWEVER...AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL LIKELY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT LEAST
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA AND PERHAPS SOME EXPANSION
SOUTH LATER IN THE EVENING. HAVE GEARED THE TAF GRIDS AND TEXT
TAFS FOR THIS IDEA WITH VCTS INCLUDED IN THE MORE SOUTHWEST SITES
VERSES PREVAILING TS NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP SMARTLY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND LATER WEST DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
725 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
ISSUED AN UPDATED TO FINE TUNE THE NEAR TERM TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON
THE LAST SATELLITE IMAGE. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRY WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. CURRENTLY THIS BOUNDARY IS DRY WITH JUST MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE CWA ARE EXHIBITING A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
VARYING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE LOW
50S ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL. WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
THIS PART OF KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING AND PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN
RATHER LIMITED THUS FAR.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEVOLUTION OF THE
CONUS OMEGA BLOCK AS THE EASTERN LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND THE WESTERN ONE OPENS UP TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
EASTERN LOW/S DEPARTURE...HEIGHTS WILL CLIMB TODAY. MEANWHILE...A
DIGGING CLOSED LOW WILL DESCEND INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE
HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY PUSHING A MINOR SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT. RATHER
FLAT AND FAST FLOW FOLLOWS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHERN TROUGH SPINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR EARLY AND NAM THEREAFTER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUICK WARM UP FOLLOWING A CHILLY
START FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SLIPS THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZED AIR MASS ACROSS THE
CWA LATER IN THE DAY. LIS WILL FALL TO -5 OR LESS WHILE CAPE
CLIMBS TO 1500 J/KG OR GREATER ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING WITH
HEIGHTS. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD SINKING BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO AND ALSO A PARTNER
E-MAIL. THOUGH POPS WILL FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE STALLING
COLD FRONT WILL SIT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD KEEP THE ELEVATION BASED DIFFERENCES TO A MINIMUM FOR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WHILE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DIFFERENCES
ACROSS THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE LOWS. LIKEWISE ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S SOUTH ON SUNDAY
AND COOLER MID 60S NORTHEAST.
USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST
ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND MINIMAL TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS
TO ADJUST FOR TIMING OF THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH SOLUTIONS DIVERGING A BIT LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SEEING MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SMALLER
SCALE FEATURES...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFTER THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION DAY ONE...MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
APPROACHING TROUGH THAT MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THIS TROUGH IS PART OF A LARGER CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL PHASE
WITH...BE REINFORCED BY ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ABOUT THE SAME
TIME. OVERALL RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL TRANSITION OF LARGER SYSTEM
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...A STALLED OUT COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
HEART OF OUR CWA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY THERE WILL ONLY BE A
BRIEF LULL IN THE THREAT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE WEEK...
FIRST FROM THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA AND SECOND FROM
THE TROUGH THAT ROTATES ACROSS THE MIDWEST TUESDAY. THEREAFTER FLOW
IS SOMEWHAT SPLIT UNTIL LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA BY THU INTO FRI.
OVERALL TEMPS APPEAR TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. POPS APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THEN
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 21Z. A WEAK DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE FROM HIGH CLOUDS PRIOR TO THAT TIME. HOWEVER...AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL LIKELY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT LEAST
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA AND PERHAPS SOME EXPANSION
SOUTH LATER IN THE EVENING. HAVE GEARED THE TAF GRIDS AND TEXT
TAFS FOR THIS IDEA WITH VCTS INCLUDED IN THE MORE SOUTHWEST SITES
VERSES PREVAILING TS NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP SMARTLY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND LATER WEST DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1156 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE ON MON...AND WILL BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS THREAT OF RAIN WILL LAST AT LEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
OFF AND ON MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
MIDDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH
THE 40S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME CAPE NOTED ON
THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE HOWEVER WITH 500 J/KG NEAR AND JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. RAP DEEP LAYER (0-10KM) CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH THE 700-900 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CWA TOWARDS JACKSON BEFORE THE DEW POINTS/CAPE ARE SWEPT
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.
HAVE CHANCE POPS (30-50 PCT) IN THE SOUTH THROUGH 200PM WITH A
20-30 PCT CHANCE THEN THROUGH 400PM NEAR JACKSON. EXPECTATION IS A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. GIVEN WEAK CAPE AND 25-30 KNOTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING BUT
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IF WE SEE THEM AT ALL.
OVERALL A DECREASING CLOUD SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SMOKE WILL DECREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN FORECAST TRAJECTORIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THE TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE FRONT COMING THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING IS FOR LESS RAIN OVER TIME. A FEW DAYS AGO IT
LOOKED LIKE MOST EVERYWHERE WOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. NOW IT
APPEARS THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SNEAK BY WITH LITTLE TO NO
RAIN. SFC ANALYSIS AT 07Z INDICATES THAT THE FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...BUT
NOTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE.
THE LLJ IS WORKING ITS WAY IN AND COULD SPARK A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE AIR IS JUST SO DRY
THOUGH...WHICH IS LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT IS FALLING. WE
ARE NOW EXPECTING THE FRONT TO BE SOUTH OF THE CWFA BY 18Z WITH THE
RAIN EXITING SHORTLY AFTER THAT. SKIES SHOULD THEN CLEAR OUT QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONT.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A WAVE AND SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE DROPPING
SE ACROSS THE NE SIDE OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD POP UP IN THE HEAT OF
THE DAY JUST EAST OF THE CWFA. THE AREA WILL STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE...WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST.
WE WILL SEE DRY WEATHER PREVAIL SUN NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING LATER ON MONDAY. WE WILL SEE RETURN FLOW START TO SET UP
OVER THE AREA ON MON. MOISTURE WILL TRY TO MAKE A RETURN...HOWEVER
THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT
WILL REACH THE AREA. THIS IS BECAUSE IT WILL BE TRYING TO RIDE OVER
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND INTO A MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE BETTER
CHCS FOR RAIN WILL COME IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF A SFC
WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST AND SFC AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW BRINGS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
PUSHES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
SOME AREAS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A FEW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN INCLUDING JXN...BUT THE
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING SWITCHING TO NORTHWEST BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS FOR THIS FCST
PACKAGE. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A PERIOD OF SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS
WHEN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. IT SHOULD MOVE OUT BY THE EVENING HOURS...WITH WAVES
COMING DOWN BELOW FOUR FEET BY MID EVENING.
IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY SEE ANOTHER TIGHT GRADIENT MOVE IN ON SUN ON
THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW DROPPING SE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEING
NEEDED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THE RIVERS AT HASTINGS AND MAPLE RAPIDS ARE NEAR CREST AND THE
GRAND RIVER AT IONIA IS FALLING. FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE AT
THOSE LOCATIONS FOR SOME LOWLAND FLOODING. VERY LITTLE PRECIP
IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS... WHICH WILL GIVE THE RIVERS SOME
TIME TO SUBSIDE. RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK COULD BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AGAIN... BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS
CURRENTLY LOW.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
559 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION FIRE UP EARLY THIS MORNING
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
WHILE THE RAP DOES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...REMAIN HARD PRESSED TO FIND ANY OTHER MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEVELOPING CONVECTION SO EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT
SAID...EVEN THE RAP DIES OFF THIS CONVECTION AS IT TRACK NORTH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER
ARIZONA THIS MORNING MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HELPS
INITIATE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WHILE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP LOCALLY UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS INSTABILITY
STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN
PLACE...HOWEVER...DO NOT ANTICIPATE HEATING ALONG WILL BE ABLE TO
GENERATE ACTIVITY...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE REQUIRED
TO REALLY GET CONVECTION GOING LATER IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE IS
AMPLE INSTABILITY ALOFT...WITH MU CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2 KJ/KG
BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH DECENT DEEP LEVEL SHEER...EXPECT
THE HIGH BASE OF THESE STORMS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...PLAN ON ALTERING
THE WORDING IN THE HWO LATER THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING.
LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING...AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...COULD SEE SOME
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL...MAYBE TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS..DEVELOP
IN THESE HIGH BASED STORMS...ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. WHILE FAR FROM A SURE BET...EXPECT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNDER THIS PATTERN
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH THE 00Z WRF BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE OF THE MESO SCALE MODELS...ALBEIT THE HRRR AND RAP
INDICATE SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE HUGE CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST AS IT WAS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH CURRENT THINKING AND
MODEL DATA...AND IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO GO ABOVE A 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES. TEMPERATURE
WISE...WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A COOL FRONT SAGGING
SOUTH...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BE 7-10 DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAYS WARM SPRING READINGS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THERE ARE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE LONG TERM.
SEVERAL OF THESE DAYS EXHIBIT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MOTHERS
DAY HAPPENS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE NEAR
TERM AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE DISCUSSION.
MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRANSITION OF THE 500 MB
TRACK IN THE UPPER LEVELS LEADING UP TO SUNDAY. QUESTIONS ARISE WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW COME SUNDAY...AND WILL PLAY A BIG
ROLE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE. THESE FINER DETAILS
SHOULD BE REEXAMINED COME SUNDAY BECAUSE ONGOING CONVECTION FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL IMPACT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATIONS. MOST UNSTABLE
VALUES RANGE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 1000 TO JUST OVER 3000 J/KG DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. BULK SHEAR (0-6 KM) VALUES RANGE ROUGHLY BETWEEN 30 AND
60 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES RANGE BETWEEN ABOUT 50 AND 100
M^2/S^2. THE OVERNIGHT NIGHT PARAMETERS ARE WEAKER...BUT STILL
SIGNAL A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...THESE VALUES ARE
SUPPORTIVE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND SEVERE WEATHER....ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS
SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LOW...BUT ONE WOULD NOT HAVE TO LOOK TOO FAR FOR
BETTER CHANCES...WHICH WOULD BASICALLY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS. I SUPPOSE THE CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THAT BEING
SAID...THE TORNADIC CHANCE APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THE
HASTINGS FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. BIG PICTURE- WISE...THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IS
GREATEST DURING SUNDAY NIGHT HOURS. QPF VALUES ARE HIGHEST DURING
THIS TIME AS WELL.
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...HOWEVER THE CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LIMITED AT BEST TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREAFTER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEARLY
EVERY PERIOD EXCEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM WITH NO
DAY STANDING OUT. THE COOLEST NIGHT OVERALL IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THESE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM ROUGHLY THE LOWER 40S TO THE MID
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALBEIT
EXPECT TO SEE SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
SHIFT AND BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY MIDDAY...WITH WINDS
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY AROUND 07/19Z. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS...INTRODUCED A VCTS FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS OF THE
TAF...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE
ENTIRE TIME PERIOD AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED IN LATER
ISSUANCES.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
624 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST
TODAY. AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. THAT FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MILD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY WEAK FORCING AND RATHER DISORGANIZED PATTERN ON RADAR MOSAIC
RIGHT NOW. HAVE TRIED TO TWEAK POPS BASED ON CURRENT POSITION OF
ECHOES...BUT OVERALL IDEA OF DECREASING/DRYING UP IS STILL
FOLLOWED. SEE EQUIP NOTE AT BOTTOM.
PREV...
THE UPPER LOW AND SFC REFLECTION ARE STILL SPINNING OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...FETCH IS BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY/OVER-LAND. THIS SHOULD DRAW IN DRIER AIR AND
DECREASE THE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE SYSTEM. AS IT FILLS
AND MOVES TO THE EAST TODAY...THE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE EARLY IN
THE MORNING IN THE WEST...BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS MAY HAVE SOME
SPRINKLES THROUGH 10 OR 11 AM...AND SOME REAL/ACCUMULATING SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE GOING THRU NOON-1 PM IN THE SE. POPS NEED NOT BE MORE
THAN 50 PCT ANYWHERE SINCE THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY
AND WILL BE DRYING UP. A SLOT OF CLEARING MAY OCCUR IN THE WEST
THIS MORNING BUT WILL CLOSE UP LATE TODAY AS CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST DUE TO UPSTREAM SHRA/TSRA. SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR IN THE
CENTRAL AND THEN EAST AS WELL. BUT IT MAY BE MUCH LIKE THE SKY
OVER WRN PA THIS MORNING WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD DECKS BUT NOT ENOUGH
OPACITY TO CALL IT PLAIN OL CLOUDY. MAXES IN THE 60S WILL BE
ABOUT 10F MILDER TODAY THAN FRIDAY IN THE SE AND A COUPLE DEGS
MILDER IN THE NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. LATEST HI-RES
MDLS KEEP PRECIP OFF UNTIL ABOUT 00Z FOR THE WEST. AN ISOLD SHRA
IS POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN SOMERSET CO BEFORE THEN. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU RATHER QUICKLY...AND WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE SFC
BEFORE PASSAGE. HI-RES MDLS DO GENERATE CONVECTION WITH CELLS
TRACKING NW-SE IN THE SWRN PART OF THE AREA...AND MORE SW-NE IN
THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS ALOFT NOT STRONG AND PROFILE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TSRA WITH ONLY MODEST VEERING AND HOWEVER...SPC
MRGL RISK NEARS THE LAURELS. THINGS GOING AGAINST DEEP CONVECTION
IN CENTRAL PA INCLUDE THE POOR MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE
40S/...TIME OF DAY /AFTER DARK/ AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WHICH THE
EQUALLY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS TRYING TO RUN THROUGH/OVER. QPF
IS PALTRY WITH STORM MOTION MAGNITUDES OF 20-30 MPH AND THE POOR
MOISTURE. WILL KEEP WORDING FOR THUNDER IN THE ISOLD/SLIGHT CHC
RANGE WITH HIGH/CAT POPS IN GENERAL FOR THE NW HALF/TWO-THIRDS OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 00-06Z. SHOWER CHANCES DIMINSH MARKEDLY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES SE AND OFF THE CENTRAL MTNS. DOWNSLOPE AND POOR
CONVERGENCE SHOULD SQUASH THEM RATHER EFFECTIVELY.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WELL BEFORE
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. THE DRIER AIR WILL RUSH IN. SOME INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED IN THE NORTH UNDER THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND WITH HELP FROM
A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LAKE MOISTURE FLUX SOME SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. BUT THE LOW 30 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
SUSTAIN MUCH AND MAKE MORE THAN SPRINKLES. WILL RUN WITH SOME
20-30 POPS IN THE NORTHERN TIER PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HEAVIER AIR SLIDING IN AND A 10MB PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
THE STATE IN THE MORNING AND THEN MIXING UP TO 5-6KFT IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MIXING WILL TAP HIGHER WINDS AT CLOUD LEVEL AND
COULD GENERATE GUSTS INTO THE 20S OR EVEN NEAR 30MPH ON THE
RIDGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW PWAT AIR SLIDES OVER THE STATE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR TOO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY LOW
TEMPS EARLY MONDAY - IN THE 30S AND 40S. PATCHY LIGHT FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS 05-12Z MONDAY.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP TO FORM/ADVECT A WARM
FRONT NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN MTNS OF THE
STATE...AND WILL PERSIST AT ABOUT THE SAME AREAL COVERAGE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CHC FOR SHOWERS (AND SCATTERED TSRA) INCREASES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SWRLY LLJ TRANSPORTS BETTER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.
CHC FOR PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA WILL PEAK
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BEFORE THE SFC FRONT BEGINS TO OCCLUDE
AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL.
LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND...NRN STREAM ENERGY WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME JETLETS TO ITS SOUTH WILL BRING LOW CHCS FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA. TEMPS WILL START OUT
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM INTO...OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OVR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...CAUSING
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA WITH THE FOCUS OF
REMAINING RAIN OVR SE PA. HOWEVER...STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND CIGS SHOULD FALL OVERNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS. VFR CIG STILL
NOTED AT KBFD AS OF 03Z...BUT MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DROP TO
MVFR BY ARND 04Z. BOTH SREF AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST IFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT AT KMDT/KLNS...POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT
KJST/KAOO/KUNV AND UNLIKELY AT KBFD/KIPT.
REMNANTS OF LOW PRES WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA AND RESIDUAL STRATUS
DECK WILL LIKELY LIFT/BREAK UP BY AFTN DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING. MDL SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY SAT AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE
REGION SAT EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA AND POSSIBLE BRIEF
VIS REDUCTIONS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
MECHANICAL PROBLEM WITH KCCX HAS FORCED IT INTO STANDBY MODE. EL
TECHS WILL BE ASSESSING THE SITUATION SHORTLY. RTS UNK ATTM.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
EQUIPMENT...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
943 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE RETURNED MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. ALTHOUGH MORNING SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MIXING WILL DROP THESE SOME...WILL ADJUST GRIDS TO BETTER
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS ANOTHER
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY UNFOLDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX.
EVANS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER HIGH PLAINS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS TEXAS...
CAUSING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME SOUTHERLY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY MIDDAY. EXPECT INLAND WINDS TO
RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT /FALLING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS/ WITH ELEVATED
WINDS PERSISTING AT GALVESTON AND ANGLETON. ADDITIONALLY...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUDS TO FORM
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS TERMINALS SUNDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MVFR RESTRICTIONS ATTM.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 85 65 81 69 82 / 0 10 10 20 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 86 65 82 71 82 / 0 0 10 20 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 71 79 74 80 / 0 0 10 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
653 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected across the terminals through this
evening, with some MVFR ceilings developing across the southern
terminals after 08/09Z. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop west of the terminals late this afternoon.
A few showers and thunderstorms may approach the terminals this
evening. However, limited coverage will preclude mentioning in the
forecast at this time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 432 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Southwest flow aloft will remain over the area the next 24 hours
ahead of a deep upper low over the southwest states. The dryline
will remain west of the area this afternoon and evening, extending
from the panhandle, southwest across the Permian Basin and into
southwest Texas. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the vicinity of the dryline by peak heating,
with this activity making a run for our western counties by late
afternoon and early evening. Latest HRRR has convection entering far
western portions of the Big Country, Concho Valley and northern
Edwards Plateau after 22Z. Convection should weaken with the loss of
daytime heating but could see activity linger into the mid to late
evening hours as it moves northeast across mainly the western half
of the forecast area. A few strong or isolated severe storms will be
possible initially, with large hail and damaging winds possible
through early evening generally west of a Haskell, Sterling City to
Ozona line.
Breezy south to southeast winds will occur again today, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s. For the overnight
period, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with lows in the
middle 60s.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
The upper low developing over the southwest United States Sunday,
will bring increasing low level moisture and instability to the
region. There is slight risk for severe weather is Sunday
afternoon and evening as storms develop off a dryline from Iraan
to Sterling City to Sweetwater, then move east. The main severe
potential is across the Big Country, along and north of I-20,
however, isolated severe thunderstorms will also be possible
farther south. The main threats are large hail and damaging winds.
A few thunderstorms will remain possible Monday in extreme
eastern sections of West Central Texas as a surface trough moves
east bringing in dry southwest winds. Highs in the upper 80s are
expected Monday, with lower 90s Tuesday, with dry air and full
sun.
Moisture returns Tuesday night, with a weak cold front Wednesday
night. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night, with the best chance along and east
of a Sonora to Brownwood line. Isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible through the end of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 84 65 86 63 / 10 20 30 50
San Angelo 86 66 87 63 / 20 20 30 50
Junction 85 65 84 67 / 10 20 30 40
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
99/99/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
828 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 828 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
A COUPLE OF QUICK UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. THE FIRST
WAS TO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY
INCLUDING THE CITY OF CHEYENNE. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE TIME UNTIL
NOON AS LATEST LOCAL WRF SUGGEST THAT IT PERSISTS. WOULD NOT BE AT
ALL SURPRISED IF IT EVEN CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON OVR THE
SUMMIT. WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THAT LATER. HAVE ALSO ADDED
CONVERSE COUNTY INTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LATER TODAY. DEER
CREEK HAS SEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT RISES AND WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN EXPECTED LATER TODAY ALONG WITH SOME PROBLEMS SEEN OVER THE
COUTY LINE INTO NATRONA COUNTY...FELT PRUDENT TO ADD INTO THE
PRODUCT. OTHERWISE...FOCUS AND ATTENTION CONTINUES TOWARDS THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER TODAY ALONG WITH THE FLOOD POTENTIAL. THE
SYNOPTIC SETUP IS VERY REMISCENT OF MAY 22 2008...WHICH WAS THE
WINDSOR CO TO LARAMIE TORNADO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
CLOSELY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EPISODE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. A VERY LARGE SCALE
OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SLOW TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE VIGOROUS LOW
WHICH WAS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME FRIDAY IS NOT MAKING
A WHOLE LOT OF PROGRESS...BUT IT HAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS NV. EFFECTS ARE ALREADY BEING FELT
WITH MOIST AND INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT NOW WELL-ESTABLISHED
OVER EASTERN CO/WY. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDED
ACROSS NORTHEAST CO...JUST SOUTH OF THE WY STATE LINE. A COMPLICATED
WEATHER SCENARIO OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH MULTIPLE HIGH-IMPACT
HAZARDS EXPECTED.
FIRST OFF...EXTREMELY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERSTATE 80
SUMMIT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG/MOIST UPSLOPING ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND A TEMPORARY LULL IN CONVECTION PREVENTING LOW-LEVEL MIXING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL WRF...SHOW VERY
LOW VISIBILITIES THROUGH AT LEAST 15-18Z. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THIS WILL SPREAD INTO CYS LATER THIS AM...BASED ON EXCELLENT LOW-LVL
SATURATION SEEN ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADZY OVER
THE SUMMIT THROUGH 15Z...BUT WE ARE MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE TEMPORAL
AND SPATIAL EXPANSION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NUMEROUS WYDOT WEBCAM
IMAGES SHOW VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO...SO NO DOUBT THAT TRAVEL WILL BE
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS THROUGH THE EARLY AM HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF CHEYENNE.
NEXT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY. LARGE
SCALE DYNAMICS ARE VERY FAVORABLE WITH A 110 KNOT H25 JET OVER SOUTH
EAST CO AND AN IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN WY BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG/PERSISTENT EASTERLY UPSLOPE IN
THE LOW-LEVELS FURTHER SUPPORTS THIS NOTION. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CYS
TO WHEATLAND...WITH THE GREATEST RISK ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...SO THIS WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES. STILL...SFC
DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 50 F WHICH MAY SUPPORT CAPES UP TO
1500 J/KG AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH EXCELLENT VEERING/INCREASING WINDS PROGGED IN THE
SFC TO 500 MB LAYER. SOUTHERLY 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS AT/ABOVE
50 KTS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT
DISCRETE SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. WE MAY ALSO
SEE A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THESE SHEAR PROFILES...BUT THE BEST CHANCE
SHOULD BE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SLGT RISK
FROM SPC WITH THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK. WE AGREE WITH THE 5 PERCENT TORNADO
PROB ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80.
FLASH FLOODING IS STILL A MAJOR CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT. THE PATTERN
IS FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING CONVECTION AND STORMS TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD
BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. AFTER 00Z...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND DEEP SATURATION. PWATS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE CLIMO AS WELL...AROUND 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IT HIGHLIGHTS THE PRIMARY THREAT
AREAS VERY WELL. NO NEED TO EXPAND IT INTO CONVERSE OR NIOBRARA WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN A SOUTHERN LOW TRACK. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION RATES DURING THE EVENING. THIS IS WHEN THE
OVERALL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE STRONGEST. MODEL CONSENSUS OF QPF IN
THE 00Z TO 12Z SUN TIME FRAME IS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF LARAMIE
COUNTY. FINALLY...OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES...WBZ HEIGHTS ARE
SUGGESTING A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET BY 00Z SUN
WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OCCURRING THEREAFTER. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN 6-12 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT...SO A WINTER WEATHER ADZY
WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AT SOME POINT TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
WET AND COOL PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY DRIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF MONTANA AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DAILY CONVECTION. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OUT TO THE EAST WITH A DRIER MORE SUBSIDENT TYPE AIRMASS
COMING IN FROM THE WEST...DRYING US OUT A BIT MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY WE SEE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS A 120 KT
JETMAX DRIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS THE LARAMIE RANGE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OUT
WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OUT EAST ONTO THE PLAINS GOING INTO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED FARTHER NORTH AND HAVE
WEAKENED AS EXPECTED. IN THEIR WAKE LOWER CEILINGS AND SLOWLY
DROPPING VISIBILITIES EXPECTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH MORNING.
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS LARAMIE AND
CHEYENNE SEEING THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED 10-15Z. LARAMIE WITH LIGHTER WINDS ALREADY AT IFR
CONDITIONS HOWEVER WINDS STILL UP AT CHEYENNE KEEPING THE FOG
MIXED UP INTO LOW STRATUS DECK. EXPECT STRATUS FARTHER EAST INTO
THE SCOTTSBLUFF...ALLIANCE AND CHADRON AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. RAWLINS IS ALSO PROJECTED IN
MOST GUIDANCE TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FOR A PERIOD
THIS MORNING. BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN BY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALL SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
WET WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FOR THE NEAR TERM...NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
RIVER FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED OVERNIGHT FOR MITCHELL NEBRASKA.
RELEASES UPSTREAM ON THE LARAMIE ALONG WITH RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL
LAST 24 HOURS IN ADDITION TO ANTICIPATED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL NEXT
FEW DAYS HAS RESULTED IN RISES ON THE NORTH PLATTE...WITH RISES TO
ACTION STAGE (BELOW FLOOD STAGE) MOST SITES ALONG THE NORTH
PLATTE EASTWARD WITH EXCEPTION OF MITCHELL. ALSO ANTICIPATING
GRADUAL RISES ALONG THE LARAMIE RIVER AT LARAMIE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RIGHT NOW TO ACTION STAGE AT LARAMIE AND FORT LARAMIE...BUT
WE DEFINITELY WANT TO STAY CLOSELY TUNED INTO LATER TRENDS AS WE
GO FORWARD AS WE STILL HAVE SOME SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF GETTING INTO
THE BASIN. FARTHER WEST ALONG THE LITTLE SNAKE RIVER WE CAN SEE
WELL DEFINED DIURNAL SNOWMELT INCREASES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS AT
BAGGS...DIXON AND SAVERY. RIGHT NOW OUR BEST PROJECTION HAS THE
LITTLE SNAKE RISING TO ACTION STAGE AT DIXON BEFORE SEEING A SLOW
FALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE TOO WE WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITOR TRENDS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
WHERE PREVIOUSLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING IN THE ZONE OF
EXPECTED GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS TODAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ116>118.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
WYZ101-103-106>108-115>119.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CAH
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...JG
HYDROLOGY...JG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
412 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EPISODE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. A VERY LARGE SCALE
OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SLOW TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE VIGOROUS LOW
WHICH WAS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME FRIDAY IS NOT MAKING
A WHOLE LOT OF PROGRESS...BUT IT HAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS NV. EFFECTS ARE ALREADY BEING FELT
WITH MOIST AND INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT NOW WELL-ESTABLISHED
OVER EASTERN CO/WY. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDED
ACROSS NORTHEAST CO...JUST SOUTH OF THE WY STATE LINE. A COMPLICATED
WEATHER SCENARIO OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH MULTIPLE HIGH-IMPACT
HAZARDS EXPECTED.
FIRST OFF...EXTREMELY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERSTATE 80
SUMMIT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG/MOIST UPSLOPING ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND A TEMPORARY LULL IN CONVECTION PREVENTING LOW-LEVEL MIXING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL WRF...SHOW VERY
LOW VISIBILITIES THROUGH AT LEAST 15-18Z. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THIS WILL SPREAD INTO CYS LATER THIS AM...BASED ON EXCELLENT LOW-LVL
SATURATION SEEN ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADZY OVER
THE SUMMIT THROUGH 15Z...BUT WE ARE MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE TEMPORAL
AND SPATIAL EXPANSION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NUMEROUS WYDOT WEBCAM
IMAGES SHOW VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO...SO NO DOUBT THAT TRAVEL WILL BE
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS THROUGH THE EARLY AM HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF CHEYENNE.
NEXT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY. LARGE
SCALE DYNAMICS ARE VERY FAVORABLE WITH A 110 KNOT H25 JET OVER SOUTH
EAST CO AND AN IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN WY BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG/PERSISTENT EASTERLY UPSLOPE IN
THE LOW-LEVELS FURTHER SUPPORTS THIS NOTION. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CYS
TO WHEATLAND...WITH THE GREATEST RISK ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...SO THIS WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES. STILL...SFC
DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 50 F WHICH MAY SUPPORT CAPES UP TO
1500 J/KG AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH EXCELLENT VEERING/INCREASING WINDS PROGGED IN THE
SFC TO 500 MB LAYER. SOUTHERLY 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS AT/ABOVE
50 KTS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT
DISCRETE SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. WE MAY ALSO
SEE A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THESE SHEAR PROFILES...BUT THE BEST CHANCE
SHOULD BE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SLGT RISK
FROM SPC WITH THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK. WE AGREE WITH THE 5 PERCENT TORNADO
PROB ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80.
FLASH FLOODING IS STILL A MAJOR CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT. THE PATTERN
IS FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING CONVECTION AND STORMS TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD
BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. AFTER 00Z...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND DEEP SATURATION. PWATS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE CLIMO AS WELL...AROUND 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IT HIGHLIGHTS THE PRIMARY THREAT
AREAS VERY WELL. NO NEED TO EXPAND IT INTO CONVERSE OR NIOBRARA WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN A SOUTHERN LOW TRACK. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION RATES DURING THE EVENING. THIS IS WHEN THE
OVERALL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE STRONGEST. MODEL CONSENSUS OF QPF IN
THE 00Z TO 12Z SUN TIME FRAME IS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF LARAMIE
COUNTY. FINALLY...OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES...WBZ HEIGHTS ARE
SUGGESTING A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET BY 00Z SUN
WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OCCURRING THEREAFTER. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN 6-12 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT...SO A WINTER WEATHER ADZY
WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AT SOME POINT TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
WET AND COOL PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY DRIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF MONTANA AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DAILY CONVECTION. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OUT TO THE EAST WITH A DRIER MORE SUBSIDENT TYPE AIRMASS
COMING IN FROM THE WEST...DRYING US OUT A BIT MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY WE SEE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS A 120 KT
JETMAX DRIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS THE LARAMIE RANGE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OUT
WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OUT EAST ONTO THE PLAINS GOING INTO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED FARTHER NORTH AND HAVE
WEAKENED AS EXPECTED. IN THEIR WAKE LOWER CEILINGS AND SLOWLY
DROPPING VISIBILITIES EXPECTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH MORNING.
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS LARAMIE AND
CHEYENNE SEEING THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED 10-15Z. LARAMIE WITH LIGHTER WINDS ALREADY AT IFR
CONDITIONS HOWEVER WINDS STILL UP AT CHEYENNE KEEPING THE FOG
MIXED UP INTO LOW STRATUS DECK. EXPECT STRATUS FARTHER EAST INTO
THE SCOTTSBLUFF...ALLIANCE AND CHADRON AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. RAWLINS IS ALSO PROJECTED IN
MOST GUIDANCE TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FOR A PERIOD
THIS MORNING. BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN BY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALL SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
WET WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FOR THE NEAR TERM...NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
RIVER FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED OVERNIGHT FOR MITCHELL NEBRASKA.
RELEASES UPSTREAM ON THE LARAMIE ALONG WITH RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL
LAST 24 HOURS IN ADDITION TO ANTICIPATED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL NEXT
FEW DAYS HAS RESULTED IN RISES ON THE NORTH PLATTE...WITH RISES TO
ACTION STAGE (BELOW FLOOD STAGE) MOST SITES ALONG THE NORTH
PLATTE EASTWARD WITH EXCEPTION OF MITCHELL. ALSO ANTICIPATING
GRADUAL RISES ALONG THE LARAMIE RIVER AT LARAMIE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RIGHT NOW TO ACTION STAGE AT LARAMIE AND FORT LARAMIE...BUT
WE DEFINITELY WANT TO STAY CLOSELY TUNED INTO LATER TRENDS AS WE
GO FORWARD AS WE STILL HAVE SOME SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF GETTING INTO
THE BASIN. FARTHER WEST ALONG THE LITTLE SNAKE RIVER WE CAN SEE
WELL DEFINED DIURNAL SNOWMELT INCREASES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS AT
BAGGS...DIXON AND SAVERY. RIGHT NOW OUR BEST PROJECTION HAS THE
LITTLE SNAKE RISING TO ACTION STAGE AT DIXON BEFORE SEEING A SLOW
FALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE TOO WE WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITOR TRENDS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
WHERE PREVIOUSLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING IN THE ZONE OF
EXPECTED GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS TODAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
WYZ103-106>108-115>119.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...JG
HYDROLOGY...JG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
300 PM MST SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NORTH OF TUCSON THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING
TREND WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE
WRN STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/VORT
LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. ONE SUCH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT LOBE WAS EVIDENT VIA WATER IMAGERY TO BE NEAR
THE NRN BAJA CALIF COAST. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED VIA THE 07/12Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC TO MOVE EWD INTO NWRN SONORA THIS EVENING...THEN
MOVE NEWD INTO SWRN NEW MEXICO SUN MORNING.
SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS THE 07/12Z UNIV OF ARIZONA WRF-NAM
AND WRF-GFS DEPICT MEASURABLE LIGHT PRECIP TO OCCUR THIS EVENING
MAINLY ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. THE 07/20Z HRRR AND THE 07/12 UNIV OF
ARIZ WRF-NAM WERE THEN SIMILAR WITH THE DEPICTION OF SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH MORE LIKELY BETWEEN 08Z-10Z. THE GFS DID NOT
DEPICT THIS AREA OF PRECIP TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT. AT ANY RATE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM TUCSON WWD/NWWD LATE TONIGHT.
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN
ROCKIES SUN AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/
VORT LOBES AS PER THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC WILL MOVE EWD MAINLY ADJACENT
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SUN. THESE FEATURES IN COMBINATION WITH
ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL JUSTIFY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF SE ARIZONA SUN MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THEN EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS FORECAST AREA SUN AFTERNOON. HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS ACROSS WHITE MOUNTAINS SUN
AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BE OVER SERN WYOMING SUN EVENING WITH
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWWD INTO SWRN NEW MEXICO.
SYNOPTIC-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST-TO-
EAST SUN EVENING. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN
EVENING IS LIMITED TO THE ERN PORTION OF THIS FORECAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FROM TUCSON WWD. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR
AREA-WIDE LATE SUN NIGHT UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT.
HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE MON-SAT AS A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS INITIALLY OFF THE WEST COAST ADVANCES
EWD INTO THE SWRN CONUS BY THUR. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS THEN
PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND INTO THE SRN ROCKIES FRI-SAT.
THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICT AN INCREASE OF LOWER AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER FRI-SAT. THUS...
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FRI-SAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THIS
FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR MON-THUR.
APPEARS THAT THUR WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...AND TEMPS MAY ENCROACH UPON THE CENTURY MARK FROM TUCSON
WWD INTO THE WRN DESERTS. HIGH TEMPS FRI-SAT WILL THEN REMAIN ABOUT
5-10 DEGS OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/00Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY N TO NW OF KTUS INTO THIS
EVENING WITH SKC TO THE SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT...THEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL SUNDAY.
ISOLATED -SHRA WITH A STRAY -TSRA POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
KTUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ISOLATED-SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA
SUNDAY. SWLY SURFACE WINDS INTO THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 12 KTS EXCEPT NEAR KDUG. WINDS WILL BECOME TERRAIN DRIVEN AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST
TO 15-18 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF TUCSON INTO SUNDAY. A FEW MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON
BREEZES AROUND 15 MPH PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL THEN OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY ALONG WITH A STRONG
WARMING TREND AND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
229 PM PDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A departing low pressure system will support scattered showers
through sunday morning with thunderstorms possible through this
evening across the mountains, adjacent valleys, and the antelope
valley. Weak high pressure aloft will dominate much of next week
bringing much warmer conditions to the area along with night and
morning low clouds and fog for the coast and some valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE)
The western periphery of a broad upper level low pressure system was
over srn CA early this afternoon. Plenty of clouds lingered over the
forecast area, and any breaks in the cloud cover away from the coast
filled in with the heating of the day. The only shower activity
noted on RADAR early this afternoon was over the SBA County mtns.
The upper low circulation will linger over srn CA thru the rest of
the afternoon into early this evening, and with additional heating
from the strong May sunshine combined with the residual moisture and
some instability (sfc-based CAPE of 700-950 J/KG and LI`s of -3 to -
4 over the mtns) will result in the slight chance of thunderstorm
development mainly over the mtns, deserts, and interior portions of
SLO County thru early this evening. Steering flow is weakly out of
the n which could cause any thunderstorms to drift off the mtns to
the adjacent vlys, especially for VTU/L.A. Counties. Any
thunderstorms that develop will be slow-movers, and with
unseasonably high PWAT values about 0.85 inch, there is the
potential for locally heavy rain and flash flooding. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH is in effect thru 8 PM for the mtns of SBA/VTU/L.A. Counties,
Cuyama Vly, and Antelope Vly. Otherwise, there will be plenty of
clouds with a slight chance to chance of showers across the forecast
area thru early evening. In addition, mtn snow showers above 6500 to
7000 feet will be possible.
The upper low/troffiness will slowly move e thru sun. The 12Z NAM
was also forecasting a weak lobe of vorticity in the broad nrly flow
aloft to pass over the area late Sun morning to early afternoon. An
upper level ridge of high pressure off the CA coast will slowly
build into CA Sun night thru Tue, with rising 500 MB heights thru
the period.
Varying amounts of clouds will persist tonight and Sun, with a
lingering slight chance of showers over the mtns later tonight thru
Sun afternoon. A much more stable air mass will be in place over the
area on Sun, so no thunderstorm development is expected.
Partially clearing skies are expected over some interior areas Sun
night, otherwise plenty of low clouds and some fog is expected for
the cst, vlys and cstl slopes thru Mon morning. Some clouds are also
expected to be banked up on the n mtn slopes Sun night into Mon
morning. It looks mostly sunny skies should develop in all areas by
midday Mon as some drier air filters into the region.
With the upper ridging building in, it looks like a typical May gray
pattern will set up with night and morning low clouds and fog for
the cst and vlys Mon night and Tue morning, followed by mostly clear
skies in all areas Mon afternoon and evening.
Winds tonight thru Tue will be quite gusty out of the sw during the
afternoon and evening hours across the Antelope Vly, with some sw to
nw gusty winds in the mtns at times. Winds in these areas should
remain generally below advisory levels during the period. Otherwise,
the onshore flow will increase each day across the forecast area,
strongest on Mon afternoon, with gusty winds also possible in the
afternoon and early evening hours along the coast and in some of the
vlys and foothills.
Temps will be cooler than normal across the area on Sun. Highs will
range from about 2 to 12 deg below normal, with temps for the cst
and vlys generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Temps will warm to
slightly below normal to near normal for much of the region on Mon,
with highs in the warmest vlys reaching the mid to upper 70s, except
upper 70s to low 80s in the Antelope Vly. It`ll be even warmer on
Tue altho highs will continue to be a few degrees below normal for
the coastal plain, but for inland areas temps will warm to about 2
to 6 deg above normal. Highs on Tue in the warmest vlys will reach
the low 80s.
.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)
EC/GFS in generally good agreement Wed thru Sat. Upper level ridging
will continue to build into CA thru Wed, then move into the Great
Basin for Thu thru Sat, with a broad sw flow aloft over srn CA. Dry
weather with warmer temps will prevail across the forecast area
during the period. Varying amounts of night and morning low clouds
and fog can be expected for the coast and vlys thru the period,
otherwise skies will be mostly clear. High temps will warm to
several degrees above normal away from the coast on Wed, and to
about 4 to 10 deg above normal for many areas away from the coast
Thu and Fri before cooling slightly on Sat. The warmest day is
forecast to be Thu with highs reaching into the mid to upper 80s in
the warmest vlys, except to around 90 in the Antelope Vly.
&&
.AVIATION...07/1745Z.
At 1700 UTC...There was no marine inversion.
Low to moderate confidence in 18z tafs due to periodic mvfr cigs at
all taf sites through 06z this evening. Showers and isolated to
scattered TSTMS expected over the mountains and deserts this
afternoon and evening. 20% chance that some of these will affect
the Los Angeles and Ventura County valleys after 21z today. 20%
chance that cigs will drop to ifr in and around showers. showers
will diminish in most areas after 06z. Possible UDDF and LLWS
around thunderstorms...especially over the mountains and deserts.
KLAX...Low confidence in 18z taf...due to periodic showers and
occasional mvfr cigs. 20% chance of ifr cigs/vsby at times...and
gusty winds near stronger showers. Low to moderate confidence in
low clouds developing by 10z...with both timing and height of cigs
uncertain. 20% chance of ifr cigs 10z-15z.
KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in 18z taf. Periodic showers
will produce mvfr cigs at times...with a 10% chance of conds
dropping to ifr. Timing of mvfr cigs may differ up to 2 hrs from
taf times tonight. 30% chance of ifr cigs after 12z.
&&
.MARINE...07/200 PM.
A slight chance of showers will continue over the coastal waters
this afternoon and evening as a large upper low with embedded
disturbances crosses the area. Otherwise, high confidence in
generally light winds under 20 kt and mild sea conditions through
the weekend, and into early next week. High tides to near 6.5 feet
are expected this evening around 9:30 PM PDT.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Flash Flood Watch in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening For
zones 38-52>54-59. (See LAXFFALOX).
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Sirard
AVIATION...Smith
MARINE...Smith
SYNOPSIS...Munroe
weather.gov/losangeles
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
219 PM PDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers with very isolated thunderstorms will continue today
across much of the Sierra and northwest Nevada. Showers will
linger tonight into Sunday with afternoon thunderstorms possible
Sunday. Drier and warmer weather returns for next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
The upper low which has brought the region plenty of wet and
stormy weather the past few days is continuing to slowly drift
eastward. The center of the low is now over southern Nevada/Utah
and is beginning to deepen. Only changes made to the forecast were
to reflect latest precipitation trends.
With partial clearing north of Interstate 80, some surface
instability has once again allowed showers and isolated
thunderstorms to redevelop this afternoon. These cells will be
much more pulse-like in nature, meaning impacts will likely be
short-lived. In addition, it will be very hit or miss which
locations receive additional rain through the afternoon and
evening with fewer locations seeing thunderstorms. Showers and
storms are generally moving from the northeast to the southwest
this afternoon.
Overnight, forecast simulations once again are showing some
precipitation banding taking place associated with a vort lobe
rotating around the northwest side of the low pressure center.
There is some disagreement in the exact location, whether it be
across northeast California and northwest Nevada, or shifted more
to the east. Have opted to keep precipitation chances more
broad-brushed overnight, with better agreement in the location of
showers during the day Sunday mainly south of a Lake Tahoe-
Winnemucca line.
For Sunday, there is likely to be less cloud cover to start the
day, helping to generate more surface instability in addition to a
bit of unidirectional shear, which could better sustain updrafts.
Plenty of moisture will still be present south of Interstate 80,
once again firing off showers and thunderstorms. A few stronger
could produce heavy rain, but flooding isn`t a concern at this
time unless cells train across the same region or become anchored
to steep terrain.
Conditions will become much drier Monday with warming
temperatures. A weak system brushing by the north will send a
shallow backdoor cold front through northern Nevada Tuesday, but
the only impact will be about 5 degrees of cooling. -Dawn
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday...
Medium range guidance continues to show good agreement for a drier
weather pattern continuing from mid week into next weekend. General
ridging over the western US is expected to prevail, with a shortwave
moving across the Pacific Northwest late Friday-Friday night.
Precipitation associated with this wave is likely to remain north of
the CA-Oregon border. Afternoon cumulus will develop especially
south of US-50 Wednesday-Friday, but showers and thunderstorms are
unlikely due to mid level cap and insufficient forcing.
Daytime temperatures in lower elevations will warm up to the
lower 80s from Wednesday-Friday (about 10 degrees above average)
then drop slightly on Saturday behind the shortwave passage.
Generally light winds are expected Wednesday, followed by late day
westerly zephyr breezes starting Thursday. Lee side wind gusts of
20-25 mph are expected each day, except gusts may edge upward to
near 30 mph on Friday. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
For the remainder of this afternoon and evening, isold-sct -shra
will continue with cigs/vsby dropping to MVFR at times. Brief IFR
cigs or vsby possible during heavier showers. There is a slight
possibility of isolated thunder thru 06z this evening, but there is
only about a 10% chance of tstms directly affecting any of the main
terminals.
Otherwise, VFR conds will prevail thru late evening although higher
terrain will likely remain obscured with persistent cloud deck
around 9000-11000 ft MSL.
Later tonight into Sunday, one more rain band is forecast to move
south across the region, mainly between 06-12z for KRNO-KTVL-KTRK-
KCXP and between 12-18z for KMMH, producing MVFR cigs/vsby at
times. After 18z, most shower chances will be limited to areas
south of US-50, including KMMH. Generally light N-NW winds are
expected thru Sunday, although wind directions will vary near shower
activity. MJD
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
219 PM PDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers with very isolated thunderstorms will continue today
across much of the Sierra and northwest Nevada. Showers will
linger tonight into Sunday with afternoon thunderstorms possible
Sunday. Drier and warmer weather returns for next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
The upper low which has brought the region plenty of wet and
stormy weather the past few days is continuing to slowly drift
eastward. The center of the low is now over southern Nevada/Utah
and is beginning to deepen. Only changes made to the forecast were
to reflect latest precipitation trends.
With partial clearing north of Interstate 80, some surface
instability has once again allowed showers and isolated
thunderstorms to redevelop this afternoon. These cells will be
much more pulse-like in nature, meaning impacts will likely be
short-lived. In addition, it will be very hit or miss which
locations receive additional rain through the afternoon and
evening with fewer locations seeing thunderstorms. Showers and
storms are generally moving from the northeast to the southwest
this afternoon.
Overnight, forecast simulations once again are showing some
precipitation banding taking place associated with a vort lobe
rotating around the northwest side of the low pressure center.
There is some disagreement in the exact location, whether it be
across northeast California and northwest Nevada, or shifted more
to the east. Have opted to keep precipitation chances more
broad-brushed overnight, with better agreement in the location of
showers during the day Sunday mainly south of a Lake Tahoe-
Winnemucca line.
For Sunday, there is likely to be less cloud cover to start the
day, helping to generate more surface instability in addition to a
bit of unidirectional shear, which could better sustain updrafts.
Plenty of moisture will still be present south of Interstate 80,
once again firing off showers and thunderstorms. A few stronger
could produce heavy rain, but flooding isn`t a concern at this
time unless cells train across the same region or become anchored
to steep terrain.
Conditions will become much drier Monday with warming
temperatures. A weak system brushing by the north will send a
shallow backdoor cold front through northern Nevada Tuesday, but
the only impact will be about 5 degrees of cooling. -Dawn
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday...
Medium range guidance continues to show good agreement for a drier
weather pattern continuing from mid week into next weekend. General
ridging over the western US is expected to prevail, with a shortwave
moving across the Pacific Northwest late Friday-Friday night.
Precipitation associated with this wave is likely to remain north of
the CA-Oregon border. Afternoon cumulus will develop especially
south of US-50 Wednesday-Friday, but showers and thunderstorms are
unlikely due to mid level cap and insufficient forcing.
Daytime temperatures in lower elevations will warm up to the
lower 80s from Wednesday-Friday (about 10 degrees above average)
then drop slightly on Saturday behind the shortwave passage.
Generally light winds are expected Wednesday, followed by late day
westerly zephyr breezes starting Thursday. Lee side wind gusts of
20-25 mph are expected each day, except gusts may edge upward to
near 30 mph on Friday. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
For the remainder of this afternoon and evening, isold-sct -shra
will continue with cigs/vsby dropping to MVFR at times. Brief IFR
cigs or vsby possible during heavier showers. There is a slight
possibility of isolated thunder thru 06z this evening, but there is
only about a 10% chance of tstms directly affecting any of the main
terminals.
Otherwise, VFR conds will prevail thru late evening although higher
terrain will likely remain obscured with persistent cloud deck
around 9000-11000 ft MSL.
Later tonight into Sunday, one more rain band is forecast to move
south across the region, mainly between 06-12z for KRNO-KTVL-KTRK-
KCXP and between 12-18z for KMMH, producing MVFR cigs/vsby at
times. After 18z, most shower chances will be limited to areas
south of US-50, including KMMH. Generally light N-NW winds are
expected thru Sunday, although wind directions will vary near shower
activity. MJD
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
213 PM PDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.Synopsis...
Showers continue tonight then a drying trend with only a slight
chance of showers Sunday. Temperatures warming into 80s next week.
&&
.Short Term Discussion...
Numerous showers continue this afternoon to spread southwest over
the area. The models are indicating during the daytime conditions
too stable for thunderstorms in the valley so have removed them
for today but left slight chances over the mountains. The HRRR is
indicating some possible convection this evening dropping down
from the north and into Shasta and Tehama Counties. Have spread
possibility for thunderstorms into those areas for this evening.
The low will be moving northeastward away from Southern California
tonight and showers should gradually diminish over the interior
late tonight and Sunday. Lingering showers are still possible on
Sunday but mainly over the Sierra. Have left a slight chance for
most areas including the foothills and valley for the morning but
think that by mid morning those chances should diminish with the
only chances continuing to be over the mountains.
Temperatures will be warming each day Sunday through Tuesday.
70`s for the valley Sunday with 80s throughout the valley by
Tuesday. The mountains with warm mid 50s to mid 60s for Sunday and
warm each day into the mid 60s to mid 70s by Tuesday. Dry
conditions are expected for the first part of next week.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Dry weather expected through the period as high pressure
remains in control. A weak trough may skirt thru the northern
state by Saturday, but moisture is limited and showers look to remain
to the north of the local area. This may serve to cool
temperatures slightly though. Afternoon highs for the period generally
in the 80s across the Valley with onshore flow prompting Delta
Breeze with 70s expected in the affected area. 50s-60s in the
mountains and 70s in the foothills.
CEO
&&
.AVIATION...
Showers will continue across the area through early Sunday with VFR
to occasional MVFR conditions across TAF sites. Southerly winds
generally under 10 kts. System will begin to pull away on Sunday
with drier weather and VFR conditions.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A departing low pressure system will support scattered showers
through sunday morning with the slight chance for thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening across the mountains, adjacent valleys,
and the antelope valley. Weak high pressure aloft will dominate
much of next week bringing fair skies and much warmer conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-MON)
The main upper low that moved over the area yesterday had moved off
to the e overnight and this morning, altho a lobe of vorticity
rotating around the upper low extended the troffiness to the w back
over CA during the period. This caused an increase in shower
activity over portions of VTU/L.A. Counties and over the coastal
waters off of L.A. County early this morning, some with brief heavy
rain. This activity has diminished at mid morning. Otherwise, plenty
of clouds lingered over the forecast area this morning with some
breaks here and there. The expanded upper low circulation will
linger over srn CA thru this afternoon and early evening, and with
heating from the strong May sunshine combined with the residual
moisture and some instability (sfc-based CAPE of 700-950 J/KG and
LI`s of -3 to -4 over the mtns) will result in another chance of
thunderstorm development mainly over the mtns, deserts, and interior
portions of SLO County this afternoon to early this evening.
Steering flow is weakly out of the n which could cause any
thunderstorms to drift off the mtns to the adjacent vlys, especially
for L.A. County. Thunderstorms will be slow-movers again, and with
unseasonably high PWAT values about 0.85 inch, there is the
potential for heavy rain and flash flooding. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH is
in effect from 10 AM to 8 PM for the mtns of SBA/VTU/L.A. Counties,
Cuyama Vly, and Antelope Vly. Otherwise, there will be plenty of
clouds with a slight chance to chance of showers across the forecast
area thru early evening. In addition, mtn snow showers above 6500
to 7000 feet will be possible.
The upper low/troffiness will slowly move e thru sun. The 12Z NAM
was also forecasting a weak lobe of vorticity in the broad nrly flow
aloft to pass over the area late Sun morning to early afternoon. An
upper level ridge of high pressure off the CA coast will slowly
build into CA Sun night and Mon, with rising 500 MB heights thru the
period.
Varying amounts of clouds will persist tonight and Sun, with a
lingering slight chance of showers in all areas tonight and Sun
morning, and over the mtns Sun afternoon. A much more stable air
mass will be in place over the area on Sun, so no thunderstorm
development is expected.
Some clearing skies are expected over interior areas Sun night, with
plenty of low clouds and some fog expected for coastal and vly areas
thru Mon morning. Some clouds are also expected to be banked up on
the n mtn slopes Sun night into Mon morning. It looks mostly sunny
skies should develop in all areas by midday Mon as some drier air
filters into the region.
Winds today thru Mon will be quite gusty out of the sw during the
afternoon and evening hours across the Antelope Vly, with some sw to
nw gusts in the mtns at times. Otherwise, the onshore flow will
increase each day across the forecast area, strongest on Mon
afternoon, with gusty winds also possible in the afternoon and early
evening hours along the coast and in some of the vlys and foothills.
Temps will be much cooler than normal across the area today thru
Sun, with highs ranging from about 5 to 15 deg below normal overall
today, and 2 to 12 deg below normal for Sun. Hi temps for the cst
and vlys will be generally in the mid 60s to low 70s today, and
upper 60s to lower 70s for Sun. Temps will then warm to slightly
below normal to near normal for much of the region on Mon, with
highs in the warmest vlys reaching the mid to upper 70s, except
upper 70s to low 80s in the Antelope Vly.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)
A warming trend will continue into Wednesday or Thursday of next
week as the ridge axis noses into the West Coast. Most valley,
foothill, and desert locations could see afternoon temperatures
approach the 80s by Wednesday and/or Thursday. Some locations
could see high temperatures closer around 90 in the Antelope
Valley. With a westerly flow aloft, some semblance of a marine
layer stratus deck will remain over the coastal and lower valley
areas into midweek, but by Thursday, stratus coverage may be a
minimum and confined to the coastal areas.
By late next week, southwest flow aloft should strengthen as a
trough of low pressure moves through the Pacific Northwest. An
increasing onshore flow pattern should bring a cooling trend for
Friday and into next weekend, along with more persistent night
through morning low clouds and fog.
&&
.AVIATION...07/1020Z.
At 10z...There was no marine inversion.
Low confidence in 12z tafs due to vfr/mvfr cigs possible at times
at all taf sites through the next 24 hour period. Showers and
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to increase
across the mountains...with a few possibly drifting into the Los
Angeles and Ventura County valleys after 20z today. 20 percent
chance that cigs will vary from vfr to ifr in and around showers.
showers should become less widespread after 03z this evening.
Due to the chance of thunderstorms across the mountains and Antelope
Valley from 18z-03z. Possible UDDF and LLWS around thunderstorms.
klax...Confidence is low that some showers will occur today. There
will be a better chance of showers in the afternoon. 30 percent
of showers after 16z but 30 percent chance that cigs remain vfr
through 20z. 20 percent chance of periods of ifr cigs 12z-15z.
kbur...20 percent chance of showers this morning...but slightly
better chance for showers in the afternoon. Periods of mvfr/ifr
cigs if showers do develop.
&&
.MARINE...07/800 AM.
Isolated showers are expected to continue across the southern
coastal waters through today. The heavier showers observed earlier
have subsided somewhat but still could occur through late this
morning, with locally gusty winds and higher steep seas.
Otherwise, high confidence in generally light winds under 20 kt
and mild sea conditions through the weekend, and into early next
week. High tides to near 7 feet are expected this evening.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Flash Flood Watch in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening For
zones 38-52>54-59. (See LAXFFALOX).
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Sirard/Hall
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...Smith
SYNOPSIS...Munroe
weather.gov/losangeles
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
906 AM PDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.Synopsis...
Another day of showers today then a drying trend with only a
slight chance of showers Sunday. Temperatures warming into 80s
next week.
.Short Term Discussion...
Numerous showers this morning spreading southwest over the area.
The models are indicating during the daytime conditions too
stable for thunderstorms in the valley so have removed them for
today but left slight chances over the mountains. The HRRR is
indicating some possible convection this evening dropping down
from the north and into Shasta County. Have spread possibility for
thunderstorms over the Mountains of Shasta County for now and will
reassess the possibility of convection moving into the northern
end of the Sacramento Valley with the afternoon package.
The low will be moving northeastward away from Southern California
tonight and showers should gradually diminish over the interior
late tonight and Sunday. Lingering showers are still possible on
Sunday but mainly over the Sierra.
Temperatures will be warming each day Sunday through Tuesday.
70`s for the valley Sunday with 80s throughout the valley by
Tuesday. The mountains with warm mid 50s to mid 60s for Sunday and
warm each day into the mid 60s to mid 70s by Tuesday. Dry
conditions are expected for the first part of next week.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Dry conditions with above normal temperatures expected through the
extended period under upper level high pressure. An upper level
low dropping through the Pacific Northwest will bring a slight
cooling trend through at the end of the week but precipitation is
expected to remain north of the forecast area. Generally light
southerly winds are expected through the extended period.
A Pacific low moving in off the coast could bring a chance of
precipitation early next week but extended models differ. At this
time this system looks mainly dry.
&&
.AVIATION...
Upper low over SoCal will continue to pivot isolated showers over Norcal
with a threat of afternoon thunderstorms. VFR conditions TAF sites
next 24 hours except occasional MVFR in showers or thunderstorms.
Mainly IFR over mountains. South winds up to 15 mph except gusty
near thunderstorms.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
340 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON IN NRN EL PASO
COUNTY AND NRN TELLER COUNTY. DRIER AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE EAST
ACRS THE FAR SERN PLAINS...WITH DEW POINTS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER
40S AT 2 PM AT KLAA...BUT HAD DROPPED TO 30 BY 230 PM...AND WAS DOWN
TO 7 AT KLHX. THE BOUNDARY OUT EAST IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST
BUT IN THE MEANTIME STORMS ARE FIRING ALONG THIS DRY LINE. IT IS
ALSO STILL RELATIVELY MOIST OVR EL PASO COUNTY WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 40S. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS THE DRY LINE
SHIFTING EAST INTO KS BY AROUND 23Z...WITH CONVECTION ENDING OVR THE
FAR SERN PLAINS. IT ALSO HAS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS KICKING IN OVR EL
PASO COUNTY BETWEEN 22Z AND 23Z AND THUS BRINGING DRIER AIR IN AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH PCPN CHANCES ENDING. UNTIL THE LOWER LEVELS
DRY OUT OVR EL PASO AND TELLER COUNTIES...AND IN LOCATIONS NEAR THE
KS BORDER...THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.
ACRS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE SHOULD BE SOME ISOLD TO SCT
EVENING TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS
OF 40-50 PM AND SOME ISOLD SMALL HAIL.
BY 06Z THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA. OVERNIGHT AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO LIE
FROM THE NRN CO BORDER TO WRN AZ. THEN DURING THE DAY SUN...A
SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NM AND THEN THE SERN CORNER
OF CO IN THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE MAIN UPR LOW CENTER SITS IN SERN
WY. THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY ACRS THE FORECAST AREA THRU ABOUT
MIDMORNING SUN...BUT THEN BY LATE MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE SOME SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTN AND NEARBY TRRN.
THEN IN THE AFTERNOON THERE WL BE ENOUGH MSTR AND INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLD STORMS TO SPREAD ACRS THE SERN PLAINS. NR THE KS BORDER CAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 1000-1200 J/KG...WITH 40 KTS OF SHEAR IN
THE 0-6KM LAYER AND LI/S OF AROUND -6. THUS THERE COULD BE A THREAT
OF A SEVERE STORM OR TWO.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS WILL DIMINISH SUN NIGHT...AS THE FIRST
UPPER LOW MOVES EWD INTO NE. MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING OVER THE MTN AREAS...AND COVERAGE
OVER THE CONTDVD WILL INCREASE ON MON MORNING. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ON MONDAY AS A
WEAK TRAILING DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SNOW ACCUMS THROUGH
MON WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...TWO TO FOUR INCHES...WITH A FEW
SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE. SEE
NO NEED FOR HIGHLITES AT THIS TIME.
AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE TUE MORNING AS A TRANSITORY SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH...TUE AFTERNOON MAY SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THE PLAINS AS A SECOND SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES
EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH E CO.
WEAK UPSLOPE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTS. WED SHOULD
BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA. THE ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN PROGGING MUCH COLDER AIR ON
WED...HAS BACKED OFF AND NOW JOINS THE GFS IN PROGGING H7 TEMPS
MORE IN THE 0 TO MINUS 2 RANGE WED MORNING...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
A SNOW LEVEL IN THE 7000 FOOT RANGE. QPF DOES NOT LOOK OVERLYIMPRESSIVE.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES THRU THE
NEXT 24 HRS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT WL DECREASE BY LATE NIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1137 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
CURRENTLY...CLOUDS ARE THICKENING ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION STAYING TO OUR WEST ACROSS KGJT
AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE MILD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
TODAY...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO TO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID
AND LATE MORNING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH THE REST OF OUR CWA MAINLY DRY INTO
THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE LITTLE IF ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. BUT PORTIONS
OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND KIOWA COUNTY COULD GET IN ON SOME
ACTIVITY. CURRENT POP FORECAST COULD BE A LITTLE HEAVY HANDED IN THE
PIKES PEAK REGIONS WITH LATEST HRRR AND NAM INDICATING THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE PALMER DIVIDE IN
NORTHERN COLORADO. SPC HAS A SMALL PART OF EL PASO COUNTY AND KIOWA
COUNTY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM...WHICH COULD
MATERIALIZE IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AROUND FOR PEAK HEATING. THERE
WILL BE STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BY LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE CONCERNED...THEY WILL BE MET ACROSS A PART OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS...BUT LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES SAY THE FUELS
ARE NOT CRITICAL AND THEREFORE NOT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.
THEREFORE...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY.
HOWEVER...WE RECOMMEND THAT OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES BE DELAYED
UNTIL IT IS NOT SO DRY AND WINDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS TO THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CARRY INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN AND THE PIKES PEAK REGION...THEN
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...AS THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH THE SYSTEM CARRIES NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY IN THE EVENING. LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE I-
25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS...AND LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
...COOLER...UNSETTLED...
MODELS SHOW A BROAD UPPER LOW TRAVERSING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. UPPER LOW CENTER TRACKS PRETTY FAR NORTH...SO LIKELY NOT A
HUGE PRECIPITATION MAKER FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH OF
MONARCH PASS...AND THE PIKES PEAK REGION COULD SEE SOME PERIODS OF
DECENT PRECIPITATION...BOTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO...LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE HIT OR MISS. SOME
AREAS MAY SEE A DECENT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT OTHERS MAY NOT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RINSE...WASH...REPEAT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LINED UP
TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY. MODELS HAVE CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...AND THEN TRACKING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ROTATING STORMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME BUT THE PATTERN WILL BE THERE
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THEN TRANSITION TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY
WEEK`S END.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR TSTMS IN THE VCNTY
OF KCOS AND KALS THIS AFTERNOON AND MAYBE EARLY IN THE
EVENING...WHICH COULD BRING LOWER CIGS FOR A SHORT TIME. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
CO.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1015 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
FEELS MORE LIKE SNOW OUTSIDE THAN SEVERE WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD
STRATUS DECK SOCKED IN ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THERE HAS BEEN
SOME WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS
WHERE MORE SUNSHINE EXISTED EARLIER AND SOME WEAK ACTIVITY HAS
BEGUN OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AS WELL AT THIS TIME. SIMULATED RADAR
REFLECTIVITY FROM MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS INSIST ON FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HITTING NEARLY ALL AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF IT RATHER INTENSE. GIVEN THE VERTICAL
WIND PROFILE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY
ANY MEANS BUT THE ACTUAL EXISTENCE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
IS MORE PROBLEMATIC. EXPECTED QG FORCING IS CERTAINLY FAVORABLE
AND MORE SUNSHINE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ON THE FAR PLAINS SHOULD
HELP TO GET THINGS GOING. THE SITUATION IS NOT CLEAR CUT BY ANY
MEANS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER ARIZONA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND CLOSE OFF OVER
FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO BY SUNDAY MORNING.
NOW FOR THE DETAILS...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST WELD COUNTY. THIS HAS BROUGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE
FRONT RANGE AND INCREASED MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THIS CIRCULATION DISSIPATING
THROUGH THE MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS FROM EAGLE
TO PUEBLO. THIS WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
EVENTUALLY A NEW SURFACE LOW FORMS JUST EAST OF COLORADO SPRINGS
TO PUEBLO AND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. SURFACE BASED
CAPES WILL BE UP TO 2000 J/KG. ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED LOW SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOS. BEST TIME FOR THE SEVERE STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE JUST AFTER NOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 TO AS LATE
AS EARLY EVENING OVER FAR NORTHERN COLORADO. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS.
EASTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AT 700MB SUPPORTS THIS POTENTIAL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SO MINOR FLOODING ISSUES MAY BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF LARIMER COUNTY.
THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. SHOWERS MAY
WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS
OF COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF WEAK LIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY STILL AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST CORNER INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT LESS
THAN TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR MONDAY AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE A COMBINATION OF A LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING
COMBINING WITH MODEST DIURNAL CONVECTION TO MOVE SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE PLAINS. BY WEDNESDAY THE AIR MASS
SHOULD BE DRIER...BUT STILL PROBABLY A LITTLE LIFT FROM THE NEARBY
JET AND STILL SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. EVEN LESS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE WARMING...BUT STILL SOME LOW END SPRING
SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 952 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
STRATUS CLOUD DECK IS FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
TERMINALS AND IT APPEARS THAT IT WON`T BE GOING ANYWHERE TOO SOON.
MODEL CEILING FORECASTS HOLD ONTO AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVEMENT AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT
INCREASING AFTER ABOUT 20Z OR SO. HAVE ALREADY DELAYED THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE TAFS AND MAY HAVE TO DO THAT AGAIN
GIVEN THE COLD AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON PERHAPS BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY IF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CAN PUSH OFF THE HIGH
TERRAIN.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ET
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...ET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
155 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT LINGERS SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC LOW OVER THE ENTRANCE TO DELAWARE BAY AS OF 17Z WITH A WARM
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH
OF MONTAUK. PCPN IS CONFINED TO AROUND THE SFC LOW WITH LIGHT
DRIZZLE/MIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA.
STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD STRONG THIS AFTN...THOUGH SOME THINKING
HAS OCCURRED AND PER LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODEL SOUNDING...LATE
AFTN BREAKS APPEAR LIKELY.
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...HAVE
ADDED AREAS OF FOG OUTSIDE THE NY METRO AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS
FOG MAY NEED EXPANSION INTO THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AND COULD BE
DENSE AFTER MIGHT AS HAVE DELAYED PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND
SHOWERS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT BRINGS IN A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS FOR
SUNDAY AFTN. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS...BUT STILL THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT LAST VERY
LONG.
MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
QUICKLY BUILDS IN WITH THE NW FLOW. THE COLD ADVECTION ALLOWS FOR STRONG
MIXING AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALLOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REALIZE
GUSTY WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S...SLIGHT COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS...BUT CLOSER TO MODEL BLEND.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGH THAN SUNDAY...IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRENDS IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HAVE LOWERED POPS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH IS IN GOOD
COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING ANY PRECIP IS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND MAY HINDER THE
PROGRESS OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
MODELS AGREE WITH RIDGING ALOFT ON THURSDAY. WILL THEREFORE WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS...BUT THINKING IS THAT HIGH TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
UPWARD FURTHER. A COLD FRONT COULD THEN BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW CLOUDS MAY BREAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
SPOTS...RESULTING IN BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS A FEW TERMINALS.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS WITH BKN CLOUDS INTO THE EVENING.
VFR VSBYS MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT KHPN.
FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT AND
LOWERING OF CLOUDS...WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED...AND IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WOULD BE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME...ONLY INCLUDED SHOWERS AT KSWF LATE TONIGHT.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL SCOUR OUT WITH A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED.
LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OR VEER TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
MORNING AFTER 13-15Z...LATER AT KGON. SPEEDS INCREASE RAPIDLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 25 KT BY 16-17Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SUN AFTN/SUN NGT...VFR WITH NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS 30
TO POSSIBLY 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE-THU...GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN REMAINS JUST TO
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
ON THE OCEAN...THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUES.
GUSTY WNW FLOW ON SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTS TO
25 KT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. OCEAN SEAS WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 5 FT AS WELL. THUS SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL WATERS FOR SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS ON ALL WATERS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS SUNDAY
NGT. ON THE OCEAN DURING THIS TIME WILL PROBABLY BE UP TO 5 FT
BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT AT SOME POINT DURING SUNDAY NIGHT.
A GUSTY SW FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE OCEAN MONDAY AND WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (GREATER THAN 0.50 INCHES) IS EXPECTED
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH HIGH ASTRO TIDES REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY...SURGE
SHOULD DROP TO 1/2 TO 1 FT. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF WESTERN LI...QUEENS...BROOKLYN...LOWER NY HARBOR...THE TIDAL
WATERWAYS OF NE NJ...AND COASTAL FAIRFIELD AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR MODERATE FLOODING ALONG THE MOST
VULNERABLE SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES OF NASSAU COUNTY. LOCALIZED MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES OF
NORTHWEST LI AND COASTAL NEW HAVEN. WATER LEVEL ELSEWHERE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...TIDES AND SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT
RESIDUAL LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL LIKELY ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU AND POSSIBLE IN QUEENS. WATER LEVELS
SHOULD STAY BELOW MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ELSEWHERE WITH OFFSHORE WINDS.
WATER LEVELS SHOULD FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW MINOR LEVELS MONDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR CTZ009.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NYZ071.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NYZ074-075-178-179.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...DS/TONGUE
LONG TERM...JC/DS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
257 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows cold front sagging southward toward
the I-74 corridor. With dewpoints pooling in the upper 50s to
around 60 along/ahead of the boundary, latest LAPS data is
indicating SBCAPE values of 1000-1500J/kg. 0-6km bulk shear remains
rather weak, but is expected to increase to between 40 and 50kt
later this afternoon/evening as an upper trough digs into the Great
Lakes. Given the moderate instability/shear parameters, the
potential exists for a few strong to severe thunderstorms from now
through about 02z/9pm. HRRR has consistently been showing clusters
of thunderstorms developing across northern Missouri/southern Iowa
this afternoon, then tracking southeastward across mainly the
southern third of the KILX CWA. Latest radar mosaic confirms the
HRRR, with thunderstorms currently around Quincy moving toward the
Winchester/Jacksonville areas. Thunderstorms should track/develop
southeastward over the next few hours, impacting locations along and
south of a Rushville...to Lincoln...to Paris line through early
evening. Main threats from the storms will be gusty winds and hail.
Once this initial wave of convection passes into the Ohio River
Valley, a lull in the precip is expected for the remainder of the
evening. Overnight...a weak LLJ interacting with the stalled
frontal boundary will result in scattered thunderstorm development
across the entire area. Have therefore focused highest PoPs across
the S/SE CWA late this afternoon into the early evening, then have
gone with chance PoPs across the board after midnight.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016
The cold front will stall out south of our forecast area in the Ohio
River Valley by Sunday morning, with spotty showers lingering in the
post-frontal airmass across central IL. A majority of the day looks
dry, but will keep slight chance PoPs in the forecast due to
channeled vorticity in the northwest flow moving across IL. Sunday
afternoon, precip chances will begin to increase for areas west of
Springfield to Shelbyville, as the front begins to make a faster
northward push west of Illinois.
The warm front will lift northward through our forecast area
starting Sunday night, reaching between I-74 and I-88 by 00z/7pm
Monday. Likely chances of rain and storms will accompany the front,
with increasing PoPs from SW to NE Sunday night and Monday. There
may be a break in the rain Monday morning, which could allow the
atmosphere to recharge in the warm sector over central IL. A few
storms may become strong in our western counties Monday
afternoon/evening west of a line from Rushville to Springfield to
Taylorville, where CAPE values could climb to 1000 J/kg depending on
if any sunshine breaks through for any amount of time. Dewpoints
will climb into the low 60s, providing added fuel for storms.
Central IL will remain in the warm sector Monday night and Tuesday,
when categorical PoPs were expanded in the forecast to cover
increasing instability params. Tuesday afternoon, MUCAPES of 2000
J/kg appear possible, with additional strong storms across the
board. Shear values look marginal, so mainly large hail with those
storms.
Another break in the storms looks possible later Tuesday night and
Wednesday, before a cold front and a line of storms push across
Illinois Wed night.
Cooler air will arrive behind that front, along with some drier air
for Thursday through Friday morning. A cold front projected to reach
central IL Friday afternoon will increase rain and storm chances
once again through Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016
Main aviation forecast concern will be convective chances this
afternoon/evening. 17z surface analysis shows cold front sinking
southward into north-central Illinois...with primary zone of
showers/isolated thunder currently along the I-74 corridor. Have
carried VCTS at KPIA/KBMI/KCMI through 22/23z accordingly. Later
in the day, the front will slip further south and convection
currently along the Iowa/Missouri border will track eastward into
portions of central Illinois. HRRR suggests this activity will
primarily impact KSPI and KDEC between 21z and 00z. After that, a
lull in the precip is expected through much of the evening before
warm-advection showers develop along the stalled frontal boundary
overnight. Forecast soundings show VFR ceilings through the entire
period. Winds will initially be from the northwest at 10-15 kt
this afternoon, then will veer to the northeast this evening,
before becoming light/variable overnight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1255 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...1045 AM CDT
THE COLD FRONT SHOWS UP VERY NICELY ON KLOT WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING...CRUISING ALONG INTO KANKAKEE...GRUNDY...AND LASALLE
COUNTIES ALREADY. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS
TODAY. THERE IS SOME WEAK ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON SUCH THAT SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH. INSTABILITY LINGERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FROM
SOUTHERN LASALLE/LIVINGSTON EAST TO BENTON COUNTY AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES THOUGH...BUT WITH THE FIRST WAVE THIS
AFTERNOON APPEARS THE WINDOW FOR MUCH WILL BE SMALL AND LIMITED TO
THE FIRST FEW AFTERNOON HOURS. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN...JUST IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS...BUT THIS WILL AGAIN BE FOCUSED IN OUR SOUTHERN/WESTERN
ZONES. OTHERWISE EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL WITH THE FRONT THEN HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY TODAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
KMD
&&
.SHORT TERM...
343 AM CDT
THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE NEAR TERM...ADDITIONAL CHANCES LATER TODAY...AND
TEMP TRENDS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDGING ALONG WEAK UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION HELPING TO STEER SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THIS TIME. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICTING THIS AREA OF PRECIP SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST
FROM AREAS NEAR ROCKFORD EAST TO THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. AS THIS
DEVELOPMENT HAS APPROACHED OVERNIGHT IT HAS BEEN WEAKENING...PER
WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND DIMINISHING LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE BUT MORE SO AS
MAIN FORCING/WAVE EXIT TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH FURTHER DIMINISHING
IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THIS SHOULD STILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER TO PUSH THROUGH REMAINING AREAS IN
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE MAINTAINED THUNDER WORDING THIS MORNING
DESPITE THE DIMINISHING TREND...GIVEN INSTABILITY AXIS CONTINUES
TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT.
BEYOND THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...CONFIDENCE DOES LOWER WITH
REGARDS TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS SHORT
TERM/HIRES GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY VARIES. HOWEVER...LIKELY
SCENARIO WILL BE FOR THIS INITIAL PRECIP TO EXIT/DIMINISH BUT
WITH THEN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG
SOUTHWARD MOVING SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND INITIALLY BE MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT THEN FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH INTO MID
MORNING AS THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. WITH THE LACK OF COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...HAVE KEPT POPS LOW. A DRY PERIOD WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL FOCUS TURNS TOWARDS
UPSTREAM FAST MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR
ADDITIONAL AND MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT
LIKELY TO BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THAT TIME THIS
STRONGER DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. DO
BRING BACK CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION OF THUNDER FROM AREAS IN
LASALLE...LIVINGSTON...AND FORD FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA MORE SO IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LINGERING
MID LEVEL BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE COULD AID IN SOME LIGHT/ISOLATED
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND
HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING.
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH TEMP TRENDS THIS MORNING...AS ANTICIPATED
BOUNDARY TO USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS TO THE CWA. THIS COULD LIKELY
OCCUR QUICK TOO...WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35
MPH THIS MORNING POST FROPA. THESE STRONG WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS
WILL BE FELT THIS MOST FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE...WHERE TEMPS WILL
LIKELY GO FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOW 50S IN A MATTER OF HOURS. AREAS
ELSEWHERE WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT SHOULD STILL STAY IN THE
60S.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
343 AM CDT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKING UNSETTLED AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE
CONUS DRAWS CLOSER TO THE REGION. SHOULD SEE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MORE SO ON MONDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD SWING THROUGH. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AT MOST WEAK
AND DONT REALLY ANTICIPATE THUNDER TO REALLY BE PRESENT SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THUNDER WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE ON MONDAY WITH
A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS PUSHING EAST. STILL LOWER
CONFIDENCE WITH HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE THROUGH MID WEEK BUT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
CONCERN FOR THE AIRPSPACE:
-GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPEICALLY AT ORD/MDW
-SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING
A QUIETER PERIOD IS COMING FOR THE TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS...A BRIEF REPRIEVE BEFORE AN ACTIVE FEW DAYS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH WILL
LEAVE ALL TERMINALS WITH A GUSTY NE TO NORTH WIND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LAREGLY REMAIN CONFINED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WHICH WOULD KEEP THE TAF SITES DRY OTHER THAN MAYBE A
BRIEF SPRINKLE IN THE NEXT HOUR. THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED WELL
SOUTH/WEST AND ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTEROON. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT BUT AGAIN SHOWERS LARGELY SOUTH OF
THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE LIKELY PEAKED AS PRESSURE RISES BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW ARE DIMINISHING. EXPECT THE DOWNWARD TREND TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT
WEAKENING WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY...THEN THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH
AND A WEAK LOW WILL PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...TURNING
WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERLY. AFTER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HAZE FROM
THE CANADIAN WILDFIRE DRIFTING THROUGH.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
307 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE STRAITS OF MACKINAW WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING WEST/SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE
EAST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH WINDS QUICKLY TURNING FROM NORTHWEST/WEST TO
NORTH. THE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND SUGGEST SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30KT WITH PERHAPS A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR THE OPEN WATERS AND MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE GRADIENT IS BRIEF AND EXPECT BY LATE AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL
HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH. WITH THE WIND DIRECTION TURNING NORTH THE
WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE ESPECIALLY
ALONG BOTH THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP SMALL CRAFT HAZARDS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVES TO ALSO SUBSIDE
TO AROUND 1 TO 3 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1038 AM CDT Sat May 7 2016
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to track southeastward
along/north of the I-74 corridor this morning. 1525z radar imagery
shows the most concentrated area of showers from Champaign to
Danville...with a lull in the precip further upstream. HRRR has
been advertising this temporary break in the precip quite well
this morning...focusing its main convective development further
upstream across western Iowa. Latest radar mosaic is already
showing showers/thunder forming north of Kansas City across
western Iowa/northwest Missouri...and this activity is expected
to track/develop further E/SE into central Illinois this
afternoon. HRRR suggests scattered thunderstorms will track
along/south of a Macomb...to Lincoln...to Paris line between
20z/3pm and 01z/8pm. With surface dewpoints pooling in the upper
50s/lower 60s ahead of the slowly approaching cold front, SBCAPES
will climb to around 1500J/kg. At the same time, 0-6km bulk shear
will increase to between 40 and 50kt. The combination of moderate
instability/shear will be sufficient to support a few strong to
potentially severe storms across the southern half of the KILX CWA
late this afternoon...with the main threats being gusty winds and
large hail. Current forecast has a good handle on the situation,
so only minor tweaks are needed at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT Sat May 7 2016
Pcpn remnants will continue to move southeast across northern IL and
into northern parts of central IL this morning. These showers and
thunderstorms formed along a sfc boundary that is still located back
across IA. The low pressure area associated with this front will
move across the Great Lakes region, dragging the front into central
IL later this morning. This will become the primary focus for
additional shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon.
Scattered showers will remain possible in northern parts of the CWA
this morning and into early this afternoon. Believe pcpn will become
likely this afternoon along and south of a Jacksonville to Paris
line. Believe this is where the best forcing and dynamics will be
for this afternoon. There is a slight risk that some of the storms
this afternoon could be severe with hail and damaging winds
possible.
Temps today will be divided by the front with highest temps in the
lower 80s south of the front and lower to middle 70s north of the
front in the Peoria and Bloomington/Normal areas. Winds will be out
of the west ahead of the front, but then become northerly once the
front passes.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT Sat May 7 2016
After a recent dry stretch of weather over central and southeast IL,
more unsettled weather pattern takes shape starting today through at
least the middle of next week. Have likely chances of showers and
thunderstorms over southern CWA early this evening with slight
chance of severe storms from a Jacksonville to Springfield to Paris
line south with 15% risk of large hail and damaging winds into mid
evening. SPC appears to side toward the more unstable NAM model
which has MUCapes of 1-2k ft in southern CWA late this afternoon and
early evening. Instability wanes and shifts south of CWA by
03Z/10 pm as frontal boundary shifts further south of central IL
and convection chances to diminish from north to south during late
evening and overnight. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 50s with
upper 40s to near 50F from I-74 north.
Weak surface high pressure of 1016 mb drifting east across the Ohio
river valley Sunday and frontal boundary to start shifting back to
the northeast toward southwest IL Sunday afternoon. So slight
chances of showers/thunderstorms Sunday morning increase to 30-40%
chances Sunday afternoon over sw CWA south of I-74. Cooler highs
Sunday in the upper 60s with sw CWA around 70F, which is 3-5F cooler
than normal. Warm front to lift northeast into central IL overnight
Sunday night with likely chances of showers and thunderstorms, then
the warm front lifts north of CWA on Monday with warmer highs in the
70s and more humid air returning (dewpoints rising into lower 60s),
along with continued high chances of showers and thunderstorms with
highest pops west of I-57. SPC has marginal risk of severe storms
from Springfield sw late Monday afternoon and evening where better
instability is.
Low pressure over the central plains on Monday slowly lifts
northward on Tuesday and Tue night keeping IL in a warm/moist
southerly flow along with continued high chances of showers and
thunderstorms in unstable airmass. Highs Tue mostly in the mid 70s.
Warm and unsettled weather pattern looks to continue into Wed with
more showers and thunderstorms, then a cold front pushes east by Wed
night and best chances of convection starts to shift east of IL and
temps to cool back down a bit but still be pretty close to normal
levels. Only have slight pops on Thu night and Fri so most areas
appear dry then.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016
Main aviation forecast concern will be convective chances this
afternoon/evening. 17z surface analysis shows cold front sinking
southward into north-central Illinois...with primary zone of
showers/isolated thunder currently along the I-74 corridor. Have
carried VCTS at KPIA/KBMI/KCMI through 22/23z accordingly. Later
in the day, the front will slip further south and convection
currently along the Iowa/Missouri border will track eastward into
portions of central Illinois. HRRR suggests this activity will
primarily impact KSPI and KDEC between 21z and 00z. After that, a
lull in the precip is expected through much of the evening before
warm-advection showers develop along the stalled frontal boundary
overnight. Forecast soundings show VFR ceilings through the entire
period. Winds will initially be from the northwest at 10-15 kt
this afternoon, then will veer to the northeast this evening,
before becoming light/variable overnight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
140 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING RURAL AREAS. SUNDAY WILL
BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING
IN PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
FRONT EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR BACK INTO NW WI AND DOWN THRU
SOUTHERN MN. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SOME TSRA IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
IN VICINITY OF FRONTAL WAVE. SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT DETACHED WELL TO THE NORTH AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF EXTENDING
DOWN THRU ONTARIO WITH PARENT SURFACE LOW POSITIONED IN THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NW CWA BORDER BY 12Z THIS MORNING AS
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. BETTER
AERIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA IN
VICINITY OF FRONTAL WAVE AS COLD FRONT BECOMES TAKES ON A MORE E/W
ORIENTATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH WHICH WILL DIMINISH MASS
CONVERGENCE/FORCING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED AS SURFACE
HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BLOCK ANY RETURN FLOW.
TIMING OF FROPA ALSO UNFAVORABLE/TOO EARLY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
PERHAPS FAR SE CWA WHERE HIRES GUIDANCE HAS MID-DAY CAPES REACHING
1000J/KG. THE ABOVE FACTORS HAS LATEST RUNS OF CONSSHORT YIELDING
LOW CHANCE POPS AND A FASTER EXIT FROM THE CWA THAN CURRENT
FORECAST...WILL WORK TO BLEND THE TWO AND HAVE PRECIP ENDING BY
00Z SUN. MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE NW CWA WILL HAVE NON-
DIURNAL TREND IN TEMPS WITH NW FLOW OFF THE LAKE...KEEPING TEMPS
NEARLY STEADY AT 55-60F WHILE LOWER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SE
HALF OF THE CWA. FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND AND WILL PROVIDE FOR FAIR
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR MOTHERS DAY ON SUNDAY. FAVOR
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT OVER MODEL BLEND AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SHALLOW SURFACE BASED INVERSION WILL DECOUPLE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
FOCUS SHIFTS TO SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW LIFTING UP INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...SUBSEQUENT LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL HAVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WILL OPEN UP
DEEP MOISTURE RETURN FEEDING INTO THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT TO BE SLOW TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 300K SURFACE IS
QUITE WEAK INITIALLY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW UNABLE TO MAKE ANY EASTWARD
PROGRESS IN PRESENCE OF STRONG DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE...KEEPING
MAIN TROF AXIS BACK TO THE WEST. RESULT WILL BE AN OCCLUDING
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS FROM WHICH PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO
THURSDAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE PATTERN ON VARYING MODEL SOLNS WRT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT. WILL TREND TOWARD DRY FORECAST BY DAY 7 AS
ENSEMBLE MEANS DROPPING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH KSBN AND KFWA TERMINALS AT START OF THIS
PERIOD. WIND WAS VEERING NORTHWEST POST FRONTAL AND INCREASING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UPSTREAM OBS VFR. CLOUDS TO CLEAR
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. VFR ON SUNDAY
THROUGH END OF THIS VALID PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...LASHLEY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THE COLD FRONT AT MIDDAY APPEARS TO BE ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY
34 CORRIDOR. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE THE LOW LEVEL SMOKE AND POTENTIAL AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NOTED ALONG AN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER ESPECIALLY EASTERN IA. THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED TO A 3SM TO 5SM RANGE OVER
WESTERN AND SW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS BEING MARGINAL
FOR MENTIONING AS A VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTION...AND CONTINUED MIXING
OF A SMOKE-FREE AIRMASS OUT OF NORTHERN IL AND WI...WILL LEAVE
MENTION OF SMOKE OUT OF THE PUBLIC FORECAST. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE
AFFECTING THE FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING FROM WESTERN AND S CENTRAL
IA...WILL KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. WILL ALSO NEED TO
FURTHER ADJUST HIGHS UPWARDS IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES
MAY TOUCH 80 BEFORE THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WAS SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE NORTH OF DULUTH
WAS LEADING TO HAZE ACROSS MINNEAPOLIS THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS
SMOKE COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY DAYBREAK. THE
COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH WILL DRIVE OUR WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
SOUTH...STALLS OUT...AND THEN RETURNS TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AM COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
FRONT SAGS SOUTH.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CLOUDS TODAY.
AN APPROACHING H5 WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND LIKELY
LEAD TO CONVECTION. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF QPF. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP
COVERAGE AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. SPC HAS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE LIMITING FACTOR IN SEVERE WEATHER IS THAT THE
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND BY THE
TIME THE WAVE AND INCREASED SHEAR MAKES ITS WAY IN THE PARAMETERS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE OVERLAID OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. A
LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. COULD SEE A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH SUB
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH
TRIES TO INTENSIFY CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE LOCATION OF THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL DRIVE
WHAT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WE WILL HAVE. AT THIS TIME IT SUGGESTS
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND THEN BEGIN TO RETURN
TO THE AREA AS THE WESTERN MOST LOW OF THE OMEGA BLOCK BEGINS TO
EJECT OUT OVER THE PLAINS. AGAIN MOISTURE WILL BE OUR LIMITING
FACTOR FOR ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
A WILDFIRE NORTH OF DULUTH HAS LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
THE SMELL OF SMOKE IN THE TWIN CITIES THIS MORNING. WITH A
SOUTHERN WIND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD MOVE INTO OUR CWA. AT
THIS TIME WILL NOT ADD ANY HAZE TO THE FORECAST...LATER SHIFTS MAY
OR LATER UPDATES ON MY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADD IT DEPENDING ON ITS
LOCATION THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP INTO NEXT WEEK.
OVERVIEW...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN STALLING THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE THERE ARE THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES...NAMELY THE GFS IS DEEPEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW MONDAY
AND NAM AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE AS DEEP...THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS
THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING INTO OUR SERVICE AREA LATE
MONDAY.
SUNDAY...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLIDING EAST AND LIMITED MOISTURE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALL MODELS DEPICT AN OVERRUNNING
EVENT WITH RAIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE WARM
FRONT...BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO BE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA MONDAY. TIMING WITH THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE DURING PEAK HEATING
AND THE MAIN UPPER WAVE LIFTING OUT WOULD FAVOR STRONGER STORMS.
HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP LINGERING
WELL INTO THE DAY COULD BE INHIBITING FACTORS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SPECIFICS
DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS TIME PERIOD AS MODELS VARY
CONSIDERABLY ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE FEATURES.
COLD FRONT AND MAIN SURFACE LOW SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA LATE
IN THIS TIME FRAME. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT CONTINUED PERIODS OF
RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. ECMWF
DOES GENERATE SOME SHOWERS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRIER AIRMASS
MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.
AN AREA OF SMOKE AT THE SURFACE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF 5SM TO 6SM VISIBILITIES EARLY BEFORE MIXING
OUT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
MAINLY SW OF THE TERMINALS...BUT THERE COULD BE AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING WHICH IS COVERED WITH VICINITY
WORDING. OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD. AT THIS TIME...THIS IS COVERED WITH PROB30
GROUPS...LEAVING OUT THE LOW CONFIDENCE MENTION OF THUNDER.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
431 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GRADUALLY MEANDERING ACROSS THE HUDSON AND
JAMES BAY REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PASS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION
TO END THE WEEKEND...BEFORE STARTING TO RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WHERE
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT...BUT SHOULD PEAK THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WHEN UPPER FORCING INCREASES.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS WHAT BECOMES OF
THE CONVECTION APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WHAT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION CONTINUES...BUT RATHER DEEP
MIXING IS OFFSETTING THIS SOMEWHAT AS WELL. SBCAPES AND MUCAPES
ARE GENERALLY NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION
THOUGH WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND MOIST ADVECTION MAY REACH 1000
J/KG BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT WIND FIELDS
ALOFT LEADS TO A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE WOULD POINT TOWARD
THE CONVECTION APPROACHING THE AREA AFFECTING THE CWA IN A COUPLE
OF TIER OF COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING. POPS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWA AS A RESULT FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...LOCATIONS
NEAR THE TN BORDER WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. AS
ALREADY NOTED THE HIGHEST POPS...LIKELY...WERE USED IN MOST
LOCATIONS FOR THIS EVENING OR THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
IN MOST LOCATIONS. VALLEY FOG COULD BECOME A CONCERN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT PENDING THE DEGREE OF CLEARING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.
A NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BOUNDARY STARTING TO PARK ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF I 64 TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE TN
BORDER. LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
SINCE YESTERDAY. AT THIS POINT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE...WITH A TYPICAL DECLINE WITH PASSING TIME. FOR DETAILS...A
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
AS THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIP MAINLY NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS LEAVES JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. A LARGE BUT WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH ITS PASSING COINCIDING WITH AN INCREASED FLOW OFF OF
THE GULF. THIS WILL PRESENT AN INCREASE IN POP FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A CORRESPONDING DROP IN POP. AFTER THIS...A LARGE UPPER
LOW ROLLING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW WILL HAVE A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. THE TROUGH AND FRONT SHOULD
APPROACH ON THURSDAY AND MOVE PAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
REPRESENTS ANOTHER PEAK IN POP. BEHIND THIS...MODELS SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST BRING US A DRIER AIR MASS
ON FRIDAY. YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST AND DEEPENS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRINGS BACK ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO EAST KY BY THE 21Z TO 01Z
PERIOD AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING DURING
THAT PERIOD. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTH AT
KSYM...WHERE TSRA WAS INCLUDED. WE HAVE BROUGHT VIS OR CIGS DOWN
TO MVFR DURING THE ANTICIPATED PERIOD OF CONVECTION WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST TO INCLUDE SYM...SJS AND JKL. DURING THE 6Z
TO 18Z PERIOD...CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CONVECTION MAY
PERSIST IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE AREA AND LEAD TO CONTINUED TO
MVFR AT SJS...JKL AND LOZ. MAINLY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25KT POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH AND BE MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
421 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GRADUALLY MEANDERING ACROSS THE HUDSON AND
JAMES BAY REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PASS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION
TO END THE WEEKEND...BEFORE STARTING TO RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WHERE
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT...BUT SHOULD PEAK THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WHEN UPPER FORCING INCREASES.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS WHAT BECOMES OF
THE CONVECTION APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WHAT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION CONTINUES...BUT RATHER DEEP
MIXING IS OFFSETTING THIS SOMEWHAT AS WELL. SBCAPES AND MUCAPES
ARE GENERALLY NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION
THOUGH WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND MOIST ADVECTION MAY REACH 1000
J/KG BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT WIND FIELDS
ALOFT LEADS TO A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE WOULD POINT TOWARD
THE CONVECTION APPROACHING THE AREA AFFECTING THE CWA IN A COUPLE
OF TIER OF COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING. POPS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWA AS A RESULT FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...LOCATIONS
NEAR THE TN BORDER WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. AS
ALREADY NOTED THE HIGHEST POPS...LIKELY...WERE USED IN MOST
LOCATIONS FOR THIS EVENING OR THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
IN MOST LOCATIONS. VALLEY FOG COULD BECOME A CONCERN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT PENDING THE DEGREE OF CLEARING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.
A NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BOUNDARY STARTING TO PARK ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF I 64 TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE TN
BORDER. LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO EAST KY BY THE 21Z TO 01Z
PERIOD AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING DURING
THAT PERIOD. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTH AT
KSYM...WHERE TSRA WAS INCLUDED. WE HAVE BROUGHT VIS OR CIGS DOWN
TO MVFR DURING THE ANTICIPATED PERIOD OF CONVECTION WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST TO INCLUDE SYM...SJS AND JKL. DURING THE 6Z
TO 18Z PERIOD...CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CONVECTION MAY
PERSIST IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE AREA AND LEAD TO CONTINUED TO
MVFR AT SJS...JKL AND LOZ. MAINLY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25KT POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH AND BE MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
207 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME TO
POPS...HOWEVER...AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON SATELLITE...RADAR...
AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS HAVE ALSO BEEN MADE TO
POPS IN THE EVENING TO BETTER ALIGN WITH SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
AND THE 12Z NAM WHICH POINTS TOWARD CONVECTION IN THE NORTH
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
BEFORE SUNSET. AS MOISTURE AND SHEAR INCREASE THIS EVENING...A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA MAINLY. WBZ HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
9KFT AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS
WELL SO LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
ISSUED AN UPDATED TO FINE TUNE THE NEAR TERM TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON
THE LAST SATELLITE IMAGE. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRY WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. CURRENTLY THIS BOUNDARY IS DRY WITH JUST MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE CWA ARE EXHIBITING A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
VARYING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE LOW
50S ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL. WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
THIS PART OF KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING AND PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN
RATHER LIMITED THUS FAR.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEVOLUTION OF THE
CONUS OMEGA BLOCK AS THE EASTERN LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND THE WESTERN ONE OPENS UP TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
EASTERN LOW/S DEPARTURE...HEIGHTS WILL CLIMB TODAY. MEANWHILE...A
DIGGING CLOSED LOW WILL DESCEND INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE
HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY PUSHING A MINOR SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT. RATHER
FLAT AND FAST FLOW FOLLOWS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHERN TROUGH SPINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR EARLY AND NAM THEREAFTER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUICK WARM UP FOLLOWING A CHILLY
START FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SLIPS THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZED AIR MASS ACROSS THE
CWA LATER IN THE DAY. LIS WILL FALL TO -5 OR LESS WHILE CAPE
CLIMBS TO 1500 J/KG OR GREATER ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING WITH
HEIGHTS. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD SINKING BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO AND ALSO A PARTNER
E-MAIL. THOUGH POPS WILL FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE STALLING
COLD FRONT WILL SIT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD KEEP THE ELEVATION BASED DIFFERENCES TO A MINIMUM FOR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WHILE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DIFFERENCES
ACROSS THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE LOWS. LIKEWISE ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S SOUTH ON SUNDAY
AND COOLER MID 60S NORTHEAST.
USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST
ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND MINIMAL TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS
TO ADJUST FOR TIMING OF THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH SOLUTIONS DIVERGING A BIT LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SEEING MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SMALLER
SCALE FEATURES...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFTER THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION DAY ONE...MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
APPROACHING TROUGH THAT MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THIS TROUGH IS PART OF A LARGER CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL PHASE
WITH...BE REINFORCED BY ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ABOUT THE SAME
TIME. OVERALL RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL TRANSITION OF LARGER SYSTEM
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...A STALLED OUT COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
HEART OF OUR CWA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY THERE WILL ONLY BE A
BRIEF LULL IN THE THREAT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE WEEK...
FIRST FROM THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA AND SECOND FROM
THE TROUGH THAT ROTATES ACROSS THE MIDWEST TUESDAY. THEREAFTER FLOW
IS SOMEWHAT SPLIT UNTIL LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA BY THU INTO FRI.
OVERALL TEMPS APPEAR TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. POPS APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THEN
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO EAST KY BY THE 21Z TO 01Z
PERIOD AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING DURING
THAT PERIOD. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTH AT
KSYM...WHERE TSRA WAS INCLUDED. WE HAVE BROUGHT VIS OR CIGS DOWN
TO MVFR DURING THE ANTICIPATED PERIOD OF CONVECTION WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST TO INCLUDE SYM...SJS AND JKL. DURING THE 6Z
TO 18Z PERIOD...CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CONVECTION MAY
PERSIST IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE AREA AND LEAD TO CONTINUED TO
MVFR AT SJS...JKL AND LOZ. MAINLY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25KT POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH AND BE MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
641 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATER MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
625 PM UPDATE: BASED ON LATEST OBSVD RADAR REF AND FCST HRRR SIM
RADAR REF...WE THOUGHT IT BEST TO INCREASE POPS HIGHER INTO THE
CHC CATEGORY...WITH A LITTLE MORE FCST 6HRLY QPF SPCLY OVR THE SE
HLF OF THE FA FOR THE 2PM-8PM AND 8PM-2AM TM FRAMES.
OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE IN FCST HRLY CLD CVR AND
SFC TEMPS THRU THE OVRNGT BASED ON TRENDS SEEN IN LATEST SAT
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS TO MSLY UNCHGD FCST LOWS POSTED AT 5 AM SUN.
ORGNL DISC: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
COULD ALSO HAVE PATCHY FOG DOWNEAST LATER TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH AN AREA OF RAIN IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT...WITH THE MOST EXTENSIVE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH RAIN ENDING IN THE EVENING FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST. FURTHER
NORTH...THE SITUATION IS MORE COMPLICATED AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THEN A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW MEANDERS
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THESE
DEVELOPMENTS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. THE POST-
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY TOTAL A QUARTER INCH
OVERNIGHT TOWARDS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK...BUT COULD HIT AS MUCH AS A
HALF INCH IN NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE FRONT...GOING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S LATER IN THE NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT...RAIN MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW LATER IN THE NIGHT
FOR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. WILL GO WITH UP TO INCH IN NW
AROOSTOOK. AM ANTICIPATING MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OVER BEFORE
THE CHANGEOVER. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER IN THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY.
WITH STRONG MIXING TO H850 OR HIGHER ON MONDAY...GUSTS MAY REACH
OVER 45 MPH AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY WHILE MID TO
UPPER 50S ARE FORECAST TOWARDS BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH. THESE
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE MORE DOWNSLOPE-INDUCED SUNSHINE ON MONDAY
WHILE NORTHERN ZONES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST LATER SUNDAY...FIRE WEATHER
COULD BE A CONCERN IN SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
WINDS AND LOW RH.
WINDS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NORTH UNDER A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW LINGERING EVENING
SHOWERS IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP
TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON
TUESDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOW
TO MID 60S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WITH THE HELP OF THE OFFSHORE
WIND. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH...BUT
WINDS WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.
AGAIN...THE BANGOR AND DOWNEAST REGION WILL HAVE LOW RH AND WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WE GO INTO THE MIDDLE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, THE CHILLY TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE MOVING AWAY ALLOWING FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND BRING A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY
EVENING WILL REMAIN COOL AND BREEZY WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVER
THE NORTH AND A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA MOVES AWAY. THIS WILL BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY
MILD DAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME PATCHY CLOUDS
ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, A PARTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY WILL BE
LIKELY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMER DAY ON FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PUSHES IN. AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO A LARGE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SOME CLOUDS
MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS LOOKS MILD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH SO MILD WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, EVEN WITH ANY SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS EARLY TONIGHT...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST EARLY
TONIGHT...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR IN RAIN FOR BGR AND BHB EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING AND THEN QUICKLY BECOMING VFR LATER IN THE EVENING. FOR
THESE SOUTHERN SITES...IT WILL BE VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. NORTH OF HUL...EXPECT IFR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE IFR WILL LIFT
TO VFR FOR MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
OF PQI. THESE CEILINGS MAY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY MONDAY FROM THE WEST. GUSTS MAY REACH OVER 40
KTS. THIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY...THOUGH CONDITIONS
COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND PATCHY FOG SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM: VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MAY TRANSITION TO AN
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MONDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
314 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
INTO THE GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG OVER WRN CANADA AND DEEP TROFFING
OVER ERN NAMERICA. MUCH COOLER AIR HAS INVADED THE UPR LKS FOLLOWING
COLD FROPA LAST NGT...WITH SFC TEMPS PEAKING BTWN 60-65 OVER THE
SCENTRAL AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN LLVL NLY FLOW AHEAD OF APRCHG
SFC HI PRES RDG. RH HAS DIPPED TO AS LO AS ABOUT 25 PCT WITH INFLUX
OF LLVL DRY AIR/DAYTIME MIXING. SKIES ARE MOSUNNY THIS AFTN...BUT
DIURNAL CU ARE NOW DVLPG OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF. THERE IS ANOTHER
SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU NW ONTARIO WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF...AND
THERE ARE MORE CLDS OVER NW ONTARIO/MN ARROWHEAD MOVING INTO NW LK
SUP ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTER ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED ON THE 12Z YPL RAOB
AND 00Z-12Z H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 130M REPORTED AT INL AND YPL.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLD TRENDS/POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TNGT AHEAD OF SHRTWV/SFC TROF APRCHG FM THE NW.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...DESPITE THE RATHER DRY LLVL AIR AND ACYC
NATURE OF THE H925-85 NW FLOW OVER THE CWA...SOME OF THE HIER RES
MODELS STILL GENERATE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG MAINLY
ALONG AXIS OF LLVL CNVGC/STEEPER MID LVL LAPSE RATES FCST OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA. CONSIDERING THE MOISTER ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z
YPL RAOB...THE EXPANDING INSTABILITY CLDS TO THE NW SPILLING OUT
INTO LK SUP...AND FAIRLY SHARP H5 HGT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC THAT IS FCST TO IMPACT THE CWA AHEAD OF
APRCHG SHRTWV...OPTED TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS WHERE MANY OF
THE HIER RES GUIDANCE IS GENERATING THE PCPN. OTHER AREAS WL SEE SCT-
BKN CLD COVER. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC BEHIND SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES TROF PASSAGE WL CAUSE ANY
SHOWERS AND THE CLDS TO DIMINISH OVERNGT. MIN TEMPS WL FALL INTO THE
CHILLY 30S AT MOST PLACES.
SUN...HI PRES BLDG OVER THE UPR LKS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIRMASS WITH PWAT NOT FAR FM 0.25 INCH WL BRING MOSUNNY WX TO UPR
MI. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO RANGE FM ABOUT 0C OVER THE ERN CWA TO ARND
4C OVER THE SW CWA BY 00Z MON...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS NEAR 65 ALONG
THE WI BORDER AND IN THE 50S OVER THE E. WITH A LIGHT NNE FLOW OFF
LK SUP...EXPECT HI TEMPS NEAR THE SHORE TO HOLD IN THE 40S. LIGHTER
WINDS UNDER FLATTER PRES GRADIENT WL LIMIT FIRE WX CONCERNS EVEN
THOUGH DAYTIME MIXING WL DROP MIN AFTN RH AS LO AS 20-25 PCT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND MON THROUGH WED AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH AND AN UPPER LOW OR TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE W. HIGHS MON IN
THE 60S AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORES INCREASE TO MID 60S TO MID
70S ON WED. THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE TURNING COOLER AS THAT UPPER
LOW OR TROUGH MOVE IN...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
FRI AND SAT.
LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE CONTINUE ON MON
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND RH IMPROVES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AREA SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP SW OF THE CWA AT LEAST INTO WED. MODELS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT MAYBE SOME PRECIP BRUSHING THE WI BORDER MON NIGHT INTO
WED...BUT THE MODELS WITH THE BEST CONTINUITY HAVE KEPT THAT PRECIP
JUST SW OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW END AND CONFINED TO
THE WI BORDER INTO WED. WED NIGHT AND THU MAY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SFC COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. FRI AND SAT LOOK WETTER...BUT MORE SHOWERS THAN
WIDESPREAD RAIN...AS THE UPPER LOW OR TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD WITH LLVL
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN WL DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS
EVNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. WINDS ON SUN WL BE LIGHTER
AS HI PRES BUILDS CLOSER TO UPR MI.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
W WINDS UP TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE N TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A LO PRES TROUGH. THEN WITH HUDSON BAY HI
PRES DOMINATING INTO AT LEAST MID WEEK...EXPECT THE N WINDS TO SHIFT
TOWARD THE E UP TO 20 KTS INTO WED. AN APPROACHING LO PRES WILL
CAUSE THE WINDS TO TURN MORE TO THE S BY THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
136 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE ON MON...AND WILL BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS THREAT OF RAIN WILL LAST AT LEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
OFF AND ON MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
MIDDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH
THE 40S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME CAPE NOTED ON
THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE HOWEVER WITH 500 J/KG NEAR AND JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. RAP DEEP LAYER (0-10KM) CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH THE 700-900 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CWA TOWARDS JACKSON BEFORE THE DEW POINTS/CAPE ARE SWEPT
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.
HAVE CHANCE POPS (30-50 PCT) IN THE SOUTH THROUGH 200PM WITH A
20-30 PCT CHANCE THEN THROUGH 400PM NEAR JACKSON. EXPECTATION IS A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. GIVEN WEAK CAPE AND 25-30 KNOTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING BUT
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IF WE SEE THEM AT ALL.
OVERALL A DECREASING CLOUD SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SMOKE WILL DECREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN FORECAST TRAJECTORIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THE TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE FRONT COMING THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING IS FOR LESS RAIN OVER TIME. A FEW DAYS AGO IT
LOOKED LIKE MOST EVERYWHERE WOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. NOW IT
APPEARS THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SNEAK BY WITH LITTLE TO NO
RAIN. SFC ANALYSIS AT 07Z INDICATES THAT THE FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...BUT
NOTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE.
THE LLJ IS WORKING ITS WAY IN AND COULD SPARK A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE AIR IS JUST SO DRY
THOUGH...WHICH IS LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT IS FALLING. WE
ARE NOW EXPECTING THE FRONT TO BE SOUTH OF THE CWFA BY 18Z WITH THE
RAIN EXITING SHORTLY AFTER THAT. SKIES SHOULD THEN CLEAR OUT QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONT.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A WAVE AND SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE DROPPING
SE ACROSS THE NE SIDE OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD POP UP IN THE HEAT OF
THE DAY JUST EAST OF THE CWFA. THE AREA WILL STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE...WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST.
WE WILL SEE DRY WEATHER PREVAIL SUN NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING LATER ON MONDAY. WE WILL SEE RETURN FLOW START TO SET UP
OVER THE AREA ON MON. MOISTURE WILL TRY TO MAKE A RETURN...HOWEVER
THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT
WILL REACH THE AREA. THIS IS BECAUSE IT WILL BE TRYING TO RIDE OVER
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND INTO A MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE BETTER
CHCS FOR RAIN WILL COME IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF A SFC
WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST AND SFC AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW BRINGS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
PUSHES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS FOR THIS FCST
PACKAGE. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A PERIOD OF SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS
WHEN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. IT SHOULD MOVE OUT BY THE EVENING HOURS...WITH WAVES
COMING DOWN BELOW FOUR FEET BY MID EVENING.
IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY SEE ANOTHER TIGHT GRADIENT MOVE IN ON SUN ON
THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW DROPPING SE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEING
NEEDED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THE RIVERS AT HASTINGS AND MAPLE RAPIDS ARE NEAR CREST AND THE
GRAND RIVER AT IONIA IS FALLING. FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE AT
THOSE LOCATIONS FOR SOME LOWLAND FLOODING. VERY LITTLE PRECIP
IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS... WHICH WILL GIVE THE RIVERS SOME
TIME TO SUBSIDE. RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK COULD BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AGAIN... BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS
CURRENTLY LOW.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1216 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION FIRE UP EARLY THIS MORNING
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
WHILE THE RAP DOES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...REMAIN HARD PRESSED TO FIND ANY OTHER MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEVELOPING CONVECTION SO EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT
SAID...EVEN THE RAP DIES OFF THIS CONVECTION AS IT TRACK NORTH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER
ARIZONA THIS MORNING MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HELPS
INITIATE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WHILE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP LOCALLY UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS INSTABILITY
STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN
PLACE...HOWEVER...DO NOT ANTICIPATE HEATING ALONG WILL BE ABLE TO
GENERATE ACTIVITY...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE REQUIRED
TO REALLY GET CONVECTION GOING LATER IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE IS
AMPLE INSTABILITY ALOFT...WITH MU CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2 KJ/KG
BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH DECENT DEEP LEVEL SHEER...EXPECT
THE HIGH BASE OF THESE STORMS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...PLAN ON ALTERING
THE WORDING IN THE HWO LATER THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING.
LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING...AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...COULD SEE SOME
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL...MAYBE TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS..DEVELOP
IN THESE HIGH BASED STORMS...ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. WHILE FAR FROM A SURE BET...EXPECT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNDER THIS PATTERN
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH THE 00Z WRF BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE OF THE MESO SCALE MODELS...ALBEIT THE HRRR AND RAP
INDICATE SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE HUGE CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST AS IT WAS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH CURRENT THINKING AND
MODEL DATA...AND IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO GO ABOVE A 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES. TEMPERATURE
WISE...WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A COOL FRONT SAGGING
SOUTH...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BE 7-10 DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAYS WARM SPRING READINGS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THERE ARE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE LONG TERM.
SEVERAL OF THESE DAYS EXHIBIT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MOTHERS
DAY HAPPENS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE NEAR
TERM AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE DISCUSSION.
MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRANSITION OF THE 500 MB
TRACK IN THE UPPER LEVELS LEADING UP TO SUNDAY. QUESTIONS ARISE WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW COME SUNDAY...AND WILL PLAY A BIG
ROLE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE. THESE FINER DETAILS
SHOULD BE REEXAMINED COME SUNDAY BECAUSE ONGOING CONVECTION FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL IMPACT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATIONS. MOST UNSTABLE
VALUES RANGE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 1000 TO JUST OVER 3000 J/KG DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. BULK SHEAR (0-6 KM) VALUES RANGE ROUGHLY BETWEEN 30 AND
60 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES RANGE BETWEEN ABOUT 50 AND 100
M^2/S^2. THE OVERNIGHT NIGHT PARAMETERS ARE WEAKER...BUT STILL
SIGNAL A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...THESE VALUES ARE
SUPPORTIVE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND SEVERE WEATHER....ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS
SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LOW...BUT ONE WOULD NOT HAVE TO LOOK TOO FAR FOR
BETTER CHANCES...WHICH WOULD BASICALLY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS. I SUPPOSE THE CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THAT BEING
SAID...THE TORNADIC CHANCE APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THE
HASTINGS FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. BIG PICTURE- WISE...THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IS
GREATEST DURING SUNDAY NIGHT HOURS. QPF VALUES ARE HIGHEST DURING
THIS TIME AS WELL.
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...HOWEVER THE CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LIMITED AT BEST TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREAFTER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEARLY
EVERY PERIOD EXCEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM WITH NO
DAY STANDING OUT. THE COOLEST NIGHT OVERALL IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THESE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM ROUGHLY THE LOWER 40S TO THE MID
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
A COUPLE OF CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. FIRST...THERE ARE A FEW
STATIONS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST THAT HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
THE SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN FIRES. HAVE LEFT OUT THE REDUCED
VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME. BY THE TIME THE SMOKE WOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE TAF LOCATIONS...THE INVERSION SHOULD BE GONE AND THERE SHOULD
BE MIXING THAT WOULD KEEP THE VISIBILITY FROM DECREASING. THE
SECOND CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
425 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY
WILL START DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE IN MANY AREAS BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE PRODUCES A FEW SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY. A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SUNSHINE
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG FROM THE UPPER LAKES THIS EVENING INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...FORCING A STRENGTHENING
COLD FRONT TO SURGE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE DPVA REGIME
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT WILL TIGHTEN AND
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...ALLOWING CONVERGENCE TO BECOME MARKEDLY
STRONGER AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
RADAR IMAGERY AT 4PM SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS APPROACHING
WESTERN NEW YORK WHICH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE MOVED UP THE
TIMING OF THE RAIN BY ABOUT 2 HOURS QUICKER BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION
OF RECENT RADAR RETURN AND RECENT HRRR MODELS RUNS. HAVE ALSO BACKED
OFF ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE BASED ON
LACK OF ANY LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED UPSTREAM. AFTER THE LEADING
BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES EAST...SOME TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
WORK OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN EMBEDDED
VORT MAX DIPS ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWEST ACROSS
WESTERN NY WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO DUE TO WEAK RADAR RETURNS
AND LOWER CONVERGENCE...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS LARGE SCALE FORCING AND FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE INCREASE WITH EASTERN EXTENT.
THE RAIN WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH A SOLID CLEARING TREND LATE TONIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT AND CLEARING WILL REACH THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR BY
AROUND 7AM THEN CLEAR LEWIS COUNTY BY 9-10AM SUNDAY.
ONCE THE RAIN CLEARS LEWIS COUNTY...SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN A BRIEF SLOT OF DRY
AIR BETWEEN THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND THE NEXT WAVE. THIS NEXT
WEAK TROUGH AND AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS WEAK ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA...AND COLD AIR ALOFT
COMBINES WITH MODEST DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.
850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -2C ON SUNDAY...AND THIS WILL FORCE A
MUCH COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE
QUITE BREEZY AS WELL WITH A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION IN PLACE...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
QUICKLY END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND A WEAKENING OF
THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHERE SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST WILL
BE THE UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...AND NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE MAY CONTINUE TO GENERATE
A FEW SHOWERS DEEP INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE WITH THE NEARING OF A SURFACE HIGH AND SURFACE
RIDGING/DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. GIVEN WE WILL START THE EVENING
ON THE COOL SIDE...CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DROP THAT MUCH MORE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID
30S ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THE
LAKE PLAINS DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND AIR TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND
60. WHERE CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE THE STILL PRESENT CYCLONIC 500 HPA FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
CLOUDS TO BLOSSOM IN THE LATE MORNING.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO TUESDAY...HOLDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT BAY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT MAY BE JUST FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO
ALLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN DRY OVER OUR CWA.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS ANY NUDGE FARTHER
NORTHWARD TO THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO DRAW A SHOWER OR
TWO UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S...COOLEST
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A FEW MID 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE RUNS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE OUR REGION WILL REMAIN
UNDER A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IS
FORECAST TO PUSH A TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
CONSENSUS TIMING THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND GFS
BEST LI/S DOWN TO -2C.
EXPECT A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BEHIND THIS FEATURE BEFORE THE UPPER LOW
PIVOTS INTO THE LOWER LAKES SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERSISTENT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING SUBTLE FEATURES THE FORECAST WILL CARRY GENERIC CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT
WARMER ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE AIDED BY A
SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY AROUND 60. IN
TERMS OF GUIDANCE...HEDGE WARMER THAN CONSENSUS PRE-COLD FRONT AND
BELOW CONSENSUS FOR SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW LIKELY TO BE OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
WITH A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS. SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY
ALSO SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE YET TO INCLUDE THIS MENTION IN THE TERMINALS.
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRY INITIALLY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP CIGS VFR
AS SHOWERS DEVELOP. BY THE TAIL END OF THE SHOWERS THE LOW LEVELS
WILL SATURATE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF LOWER CIGS JUST AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH MAINLY MVFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE TIME IN THE
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VSBY ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE RAIN INTENSITY WILL BE
GREATER.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A RETURN TO VFR. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. CIGS/VSBY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
VFR WITH THIS FEATURE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES THIS EVENING WITH A ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FORECAST ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
ON LAKE ERIE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO AROUND 20
KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BEFORE WINDS TEMPORARILY SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS...INCLUDING THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING.
ON LAKE ONTARIO...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST ON
SUNDAY AND MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE EAST HALF
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH ON THE WEST HALF.
WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH SLOWLY ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
LOZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
LOZ044-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
634 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DRIER AND VERY BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MILD
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE DELAWARE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLIDE EAST LATE TODAY. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT AND PARTIAL CLEARING
BEHIND THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINNING THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE WEST...AND LATER TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
TEMPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD JUMP A FEW MORE DEG F FROM THEIR
18Z READINGS IN THE U50S TO LOWER 60S...AS CLEARING SPREADS EAST.
COLD FRONT SLIDES SE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
RATHER MEAGER COVERAGE AND AMTS OF RAINFALL WITH THE FROPA. POPS
AND QPF WAS TRIMMED BY ABOUT 1/3 IN MANY LOCATIONS. STILL...SOME
AREAS ACROSS THE WEST COULD SEE 1-2 TENTHS OF RAINFALL...WHILE
LESS THAN ONE TENTH SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WELL BEFORE
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND AN INCREASING NW
BREEZE IN THE 08-12Z PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
STRONG DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND GENERALLY WEAK SFC-850 MB COLD
ADVECTION WILL BRING DRIER AIR BUT QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY.
SOME INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH UNDER THE LOWER
HEIGHTS AND BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG 130-140 KT
300 MB JET MAX.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CREATE
MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES. WILL HOLD ONTO THE 20-30 POPS IN THE
NORTHERN TIER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH NIL POPS FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE WILL BE AN APPROX 10 MB PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE IN
THE MORNING AND THEN MIXING UP TO 5-6KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
MIXING WILL TAP HIGHER WINDS AT CLOUD LEVEL AND SHOULD LEAD TO
GUSTS INTO THE 20S OR EVEN NEAR 30MPH ON THE HIGHER RIDGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW PWAT AIR SLIDES OVER THE STATE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR TOO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY LOW
TEMPS EARLY MONDAY - IN THE 30S AND 40S. PATCHY LIGHT FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS 05-12Z MONDAY.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP TO FORM/ADVECT A WARM
FRONT NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY EVENING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN MTNS OF THE STATE...AND WILL PERSIST
AT ABOUT THE SAME AREAL COVERAGE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CHC FOR
SHOWERS (AND SCATTERED TSRA) INCREASES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS SWRLY LLJ TRANSPORTS BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.
CHC FOR PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA WILL PEAK
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BEFORE THE SFC FRONT BEGINS TO OCCLUDE
AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL.
LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND...NRN STREAM ENERGY WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME JETLETS TO ITS SOUTH WILL BRING LOW CHCS FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA. TEMPS WILL START OUT
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM AIR INTO AND JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF LK ERIE AT 22Z. SCT
-SHRA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL WORK INTO CENTRAL PA THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THRU LATE EVENING DUE
TO DRY AIR IN THE SFC-2KM LAYER.
MAIN CONCERN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW CIGS AT KBFD/KJST JUST BEHIND FRONT...WHERE LOW LVL
MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH AND NW FLOW ASCENDS THE MTNS.
LATEST SREF AND HRRR HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY...ROUGHLY BTWN
06Z-10Z AT KBFD AND BTWN 07Z-11Z AT KJST. FURTHER EAST...THE CHC
OF IFR CIGS APPEARS VERY LOW...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT KAOO/KUNV/KIPT.
GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY...AS STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS MIXING THE SFC IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. MDL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WINDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-14Z WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO NR 25KTS THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
MON-THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT A GENERAL INCREASING CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA TUE-THU.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
MECHANICAL PROBLEM WITH KCCX FORCED IT INTO STANDBY MODE EARLY
THIS MORNING. EL TECHS ARE CURRENTLY AT THE RDA ADDRESSING THE
PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS STILL UNKNOWN ATTM.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
403 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DRIER AND VERY BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MILD
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE DELAWARE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLIDE EAST LATE TODAY. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT AND PARTIAL CLEARING
BEHIND THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINNING THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE WEST...AND LATER TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
TEMPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD JUMP A FEW MORE DEG F FROM THEIR
18Z READINGS IN THE U50S TO LOWER 60S...AS CLEARING SPREADS EAST.
COLD FRONT SLIDES SE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
RATHER MEAGER COVERAGE AND AMTS OF RAINFALL WITH THE FROPA. POPS
AND QPF WAS TRIMMED BY ABOUT 1/3 IN MANY LOCATIONS. STILL...SOME
AREAS ACROSS THE WEST COULD SEE 1-2 TENTHS OF RAINFALL...WHILE
LESS THAN ONE TENTH SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WELL BEFORE
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND AN INCREASING NW
BREEZE IN THE 08-12Z PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
STRONG DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND GENERALLY WEAK SFC-850 MB COLD
ADVECTION WILL BRING DRIER AIR BUT QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY.
SOME INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH UNDER THE LOWER
HEIGHTS AND BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG 130-140 KT
300 MB JET MAX.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CREATE
MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES. WILL HOLD ONTO THE 20-30 POPS IN THE
NORTHERN TIER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH NIL POPS FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE WILL BE AN APPROX 10 MB PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE IN
THE MORNING AND THEN MIXING UP TO 5-6KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
MIXING WILL TAP HIGHER WINDS AT CLOUD LEVEL AND SHOULD LEAD TO
GUSTS INTO THE 20S OR EVEN NEAR 30MPH ON THE HIGHER RIDGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW PWAT AIR SLIDES OVER THE STATE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR TOO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY LOW
TEMPS EARLY MONDAY - IN THE 30S AND 40S. PATCHY LIGHT FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS 05-12Z MONDAY.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP TO FORM/ADVECT A WARM
FRONT NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY EVENING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN MTNS OF THE STATE...AND WILL PERSIST
AT ABOUT THE SAME AREAL COVERAGE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CHC FOR
SHOWERS (AND SCATTERED TSRA) INCREASES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS SWRLY LLJ TRANSPORTS BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.
CHC FOR PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA WILL PEAK
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BEFORE THE SFC FRONT BEGINS TO OCCLUDE
AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL.
LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND...NRN STREAM ENERGY WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME JETLETS TO ITS SOUTH WILL BRING LOW CHCS FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA. TEMPS WILL START OUT
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM AIR INTO AND JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN AIRFIELDS...AND VFR PREVAILS
THROUGH THE AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES.
SCT SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE
AIRSPACE LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT IN ONE OR TWO BANDS...BEFORE
DISSIPATING INTO ZNY SECTOR. A WIND SHIFT FROM WSW TO NNW WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE FROPA WITH SFC GUSTS INCREASING TO 20+KTS INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
VFR WITH A GUSTY NW WIND /20-25 KTS/ WILL OCCUR SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
MON-THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT A GENERAL INCREASING CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA TUE-THU.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
MECHANICAL PROBLEM WITH KCCX FORCED IT INTO STANDBY MODE EARLY
THIS MORNING. EL TECHS ARE CURRENTLY AT THE RDA ADDRESSING THE
PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS STILL UNKNOWN ATTM.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
310 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ARE CREATING A NW FLOW OVER MIDDLE TN. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE INITIATING DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRETCHING
FROM NRN MO BACK TO SD. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO FIRE ACROSS
MO/IL AND TRACK SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING CENTRAL KY AND POSSIBLY
NRN/NERN MIDDLE TN TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT OVERNIGHT AND
THE HRRR SHOWS MORE CONVECTION TRACKING ACROSS OUR NERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS A RESULT. BUT GIVEN OUR DRY WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC
WOULD THINK MOST ACTIVITY WOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST...POSSIBLY CLIPPING A FEW OF OUR NERN COUNTIES. KEPT SLIGHT
CHC POPS OVERNIGHT AND ALL OTHER AREAS DRY.
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS BEGINS TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST
ON SUNDAY...PUSHING THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OVERHEAD AND KEEPING
US MOSTLY DRY UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. WITH RETURN FLOW ON SUNDAY...DO
NOT SEE ANY REASON TO NOT GO MID 80S FOR HIGHS SO WILL BUMP THOSE
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR SUNDAY UP A FEW DEGREES. THAT FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AROUND...BUT
STILL THINK LOW 80S FOR HIGHS ON AVERAGE WILL BE MET.
THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL TRACK TOWARDS
THE DAKOTAS...SWINGING A LOBE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY
MON NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS WRN
TN...MAYBE CLIPPING AREAS OF MIDDLE TN ALONG AND WEST OF I-65.
FORECAST SFC CAPE IS FAIR BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GOOD
(40-50KT). IF SFC CAPE IS REALIZED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...LOOKS
LIKE A DECENT SHOT AT STRONG-SEVERE STORMS. THE FORCING GETS MESSY
ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE ENVIRONMENT STAYS UNSTABLE SO MAY HAVE A
STRONG-SEVERE STORM THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WITHOUT A
STRONG FORCING MECHANISM OVERHEAD OTHER THAN HEATING OF THE
DAY...WILL JUST KEEP CHC POPS AROUND. ON THURSDAY A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE PAC
NW PUSHES THROUGH MIDDLE TN. THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER CHC FOR
POSSIBLE STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WITH THE FROPA THURSDAY BUT THAT
WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HEATING OF
THE DAY. SHOULD BE DRY BEHIND THAT FRONT WITH TEMPS STAYING MILD.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE HIGH IS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH WITH A STRONG
WESTERLY BREEZE DEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND A WARM
FRONT SETTING UP TO THE NORTH. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24
HRS WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 61 86 62 83 63 / 10 10 10 10 40
CLARKSVILLE 58 83 61 80 62 / 10 10 10 20 60
CROSSVILLE 57 78 58 80 60 / 10 10 10 10 20
COLUMBIA 59 83 61 81 62 / 10 10 10 10 40
LAWRENCEBURG 58 84 60 81 61 / 10 10 10 10 40
WAVERLY 59 84 62 80 62 / 10 10 10 20 60
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........08
LONG TERM..................AL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1234 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREEZY SE WINDS UP TO 25 KT
WL PERSIST THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH TX. ISOLATED TSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE. THESE STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING KLRD BUT WL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SHRA DURING THE 03Z TO 06Z PERIOD. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BEGIN
DEVELOPING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PEAK THROUGH THE MID-MORNING
TIMEFRAME. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN SLOWLY LIFTING THEREAFTER AS MIXING
ENSUES. THIS MIXING WL PRODUCE EVEN WINDIER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS KCRP.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016/
DISCUSSION...MORE SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TDA AS A
MODERATE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING. MORE CUMULUS...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WL TEMPER HIGHS BY A DEG OR TWO COMPARED TO YDA
ACROSS MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. MARGINAL
CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG...MID-LVL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
IMPINGING UPON THE SIERRA MADRE WL PRODUCE ISOLATED MEXICAN
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING LA SALLE OR WEBB
COUNTIES GIVEN THE MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THIS
RGN. HOWEVER...WL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHC POPS AS ONE OR
TWO WEAKENING STORMS MAY MAKE INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA BY THIS
EVE. HOWEVER WL ADJUST THE POPS SLIGHTLY WWD. OTHERWISE...THE
CURRENT FCST PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR EDITS MADE TO
THE GRIDS.
MARINE...WL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR THE SRN
BAYS AND SRN NEARSHORE WATERS OUT TO 20 NM BASED UPON THE
INCREASING PGF. BORDERLINE SCA BUT MOST LKLY SCEC CONDITIONS WL
OCCUR ELSEWHERE THROUGH TNT. MORE WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE PGF INCREASES EVEN MORE DUE TO THE
APPROACHING MID/UPR TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED S/WVS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 86 70 85 74 89 / 10 0 10 20 20
VICTORIA 85 67 82 71 85 / 10 10 10 20 30
LAREDO 95 71 92 71 98 / 10 20 10 20 10
ALICE 90 67 88 73 94 / 10 10 10 20 20
ROCKPORT 84 72 84 76 83 / 10 0 10 20 20
COTULLA 92 68 92 70 96 / 10 20 20 20 10
KINGSVILLE 89 69 87 73 94 / 10 10 10 20 20
NAVY CORPUS 83 73 83 75 83 / 10 0 10 20 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
MB/80...AVIATION
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1231 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
See 18z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
elevated and gusty this afternoon with MAF and FST out of the
south southeast and the other terminals out of the southwest.
Gusty winds are expected to continue into the overnight hours for
MAF and FST. Winds will become elevated out of the west to
southwest around 15z Sunday. There is a chance of thunderstorms
for MAF and FST through this evening but chances are too low to
mention in the TAFs at this time.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 431 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016/
DISCUSSION...As of 4:15 AM CDT Saturday...KMAF radar is starting
to pick up convection moving out of Chihuahua into the Big Bend of
Texas just to the east of Presidio.
Satl imagery and GOES High Density Winds show a broad upper low
centered over Southern Nevada with deep southwest flow aloft as
seen in the latest KMAF VAD wind profile.
Looking at the various model data it appears that the higher
resolution GFS20 has the best handle on the pattern and convection
moving into the Big Bend. As the upper low moves slowly into the
Central Plains over the weekend weak shortwaves will move over the
Southern Plains in the southwest flow aloft. The dryline will
sharpen this aftn/evening over the Central CWA with convection
possible from the Central Permian Basin down to Big Bend. Some
storms could be strong to marginally severe with the biggest
threat strong winds as bases will be high and the T/DP depression
fairly large. The dryline will move east on Sunday with the best
chance for convection in the easternmost portions of the CWA.
Convection could develop further west into the Permian Basin
Sunday night as the dryline retreats and the main upper trough
passes across the Southern Plains. Temps this weekend will be near
to a little above normal.
Mainly dry weather with above normal temperatures is expected
Monday thru Wednesday next week with zonal flow aloft ushering in
drier air. Models are indicating that convection could return to
the Southern Plains the end of next week as the dryline retreats
to the mountains. Medium range models are showing a mid level
ridge over the Intermountain West with weak shortwaves moving
across the Southern Plains in the northwest flow aloft. It will be
interesting to see how future model runs handle this pattern.
Strobin
FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers and thunderstorms that moved
across the area on Friday and Friday night did not provide much in
the way of needed rainfall across the area. Effects of rainfall
that did occur were mostly negated by the strong gusty winds
accompanying the storms. Thus, critical fire weather conditions
are expected to develop across western portions of the area today,
mainly from the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe
Mountains south through the Van Horn/Highway 54 Corridor to the
Marfa Plateau and Davis/Apache Mountains. RH values in that area
this afternoon are expected to drop to 8 to 13 percent, with
southwesterly 20ft winds of 20-30 MPH behind a dryline. Winds
could be greater across the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and
Davis/Apache Mountains. While temperatures will be near to
slightly above normal, the dry and windy conditions as well as the
cured condition of available fuels are expected to result in
critical fire weather conditions with high fire danger to
materialize by mid to late morning through this evening. Thus, a
Red Flag Warning has been issued for the aforementioned area from
later this morning through this evening.
On Sunday, westerly/southwesterly winds will increase across the
area as the dryline pushes east and the trough axis nears the
region. Given poor nocturnal recovery expected tonight along and
west of the Pecos River, except for the Lower Trans Pecos and Big
Bend Area where fair recovery is expected, critical fire weather
conditions may develop again across the west on Sunday. Currently,
minimum RH values Sunday look to drop to 10-15 percent for all but
the eastern Permian Basin and far Lower Trans Pecos. Given most
locations along/west of the Pecos River still have cured fuels, the
fire weather situation on Sunday depends on where the dryline sets
up today, and whether any locations receive much-needed rainfall.
Will defer to later shifts for potential issuance of a Fire Weather
Watch for Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 88 64 87 59 / 20 30 10 30
Carlsbad 89 56 82 52 / 10 10 0 10
Dryden 90 69 89 62 / 30 30 20 20
Fort Stockton 94 63 90 57 / 30 20 10 20
Guadalupe Pass 79 51 70 50 / 10 0 0 10
Hobbs 87 51 79 51 / 10 10 0 10
Marfa 88 48 80 43 / 10 10 10 10
Midland Intl Airport 90 64 87 56 / 20 30 10 20
Odessa 89 64 86 58 / 20 30 10 20
Wink 96 57 89 56 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
Mountains-Southeast Plains.
TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa
Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.
&&
$$
99/99/
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1217 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving east-northeast
across the southern 1/3 of West Central Texas due to an upper
level disturbance moving by. For this afternoon, expanded the
slight chance Pops further east across the Northwest Hill Country
and Concho and Runnels counties. Otherwise, the current forecast
looks good.
&&
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals this afternoon through the
early morning hours on Sunday. However, stratus will develop
along the I-10 corridor and Heartland Sunday morning. Going with
MVFR ceilings at the southern terminals after 09Z. The winds will
be from the south with gusts to 25 knots. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible across much of the area, but will not
mention for the terminals.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 653 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected across the terminals through this
evening, with some MVFR ceilings developing across the southern
terminals after 08/09Z. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop west of the terminals late this afternoon.
A few showers and thunderstorms may approach the terminals this
evening. However, limited coverage will preclude mentioning in the
forecast at this time.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 432 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Southwest flow aloft will remain over the area the next 24 hours
ahead of a deep upper low over the southwest states. The dryline
will remain west of the area this afternoon and evening, extending
from the panhandle, southwest across the Permian Basin and into
southwest Texas. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the vicinity of the dryline by peak heating,
with this activity making a run for our western counties by late
afternoon and early evening. Latest HRRR has convection entering far
western portions of the Big Country, Concho Valley and northern
Edwards Plateau after 22Z. Convection should weaken with the loss of
daytime heating but could see activity linger into the mid to late
evening hours as it moves northeast across mainly the western half
of the forecast area. A few strong or isolated severe storms will be
possible initially, with large hail and damaging winds possible
through early evening generally west of a Haskell, Sterling City to
Ozona line.
Breezy south to southeast winds will occur again today, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s. For the overnight
period, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with lows in the
middle 60s.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
The upper low developing over the southwest United States Sunday,
will bring increasing low level moisture and instability to the
region. There is slight risk for severe weather is Sunday
afternoon and evening as storms develop off a dryline from Iraan
to Sterling City to Sweetwater, then move east. The main severe
potential is across the Big Country, along and north of I-20,
however, isolated severe thunderstorms will also be possible
farther south. The main threats are large hail and damaging winds.
A few thunderstorms will remain possible Monday in extreme
eastern sections of West Central Texas as a surface trough moves
east bringing in dry southwest winds. Highs in the upper 80s are
expected Monday, with lower 90s Tuesday, with dry air and full
sun.
Moisture returns Tuesday night, with a weak cold front Wednesday
night. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night, with the best chance along and east
of a Sonora to Brownwood line. Isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible through the end of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 84 65 86 63 / 10 20 30 50
San Angelo 86 66 87 63 / 20 20 30 50
Junction 85 65 84 67 / 20 20 30 40
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1143 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 828 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
A COUPLE OF QUICK UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. THE FIRST
WAS TO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY
INCLUDING THE CITY OF CHEYENNE. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE TIME UNTIL
NOON AS LATEST LOCAL WRF SUGGEST THAT IT PERSISTS. WOULD NOT BE AT
ALL SURPRISED IF IT EVEN CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON OVR THE
SUMMIT. WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THAT LATER. HAVE ALSO ADDED
CONVERSE COUNTY INTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LATER TODAY. DEER
CREEK HAS SEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT RISES AND WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN EXPECTED LATER TODAY ALONG WITH SOME PROBLEMS SEEN OVER THE
COUNTY LINE INTO NATRONA COUNTY...FELT PRUDENT TO ADD INTO THE
PRODUCT. OTHERWISE...FOCUS AND ATTENTION CONTINUES TOWARDS THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER TODAY ALONG WITH THE FLOOD POTENTIAL. THE
SYNOPTIC SETUP IS VERY REMNISCENT OF MAY 22 2008...WHICH WAS THE
WINDSOR CO TO LARAMIE TORNADO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
CLOSELY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EPISODE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. A VERY LARGE SCALE
OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SLOW TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE VIGOROUS LOW
WHICH WAS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME FRIDAY IS NOT MAKING
A WHOLE LOT OF PROGRESS...BUT IT HAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS NV. EFFECTS ARE ALREADY BEING FELT
WITH MOIST AND INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT NOW WELL-ESTABLISHED
OVER EASTERN CO/WY. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDED
ACROSS NORTHEAST CO...JUST SOUTH OF THE WY STATE LINE. A COMPLICATED
WEATHER SCENARIO OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH MULTIPLE HIGH-IMPACT
HAZARDS EXPECTED.
FIRST OFF...EXTREMELY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERSTATE 80
SUMMIT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG/MOIST UPSLOPING ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND A TEMPORARY LULL IN CONVECTION PREVENTING LOW-LEVEL MIXING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL WRF...SHOW VERY
LOW VISIBILITIES THROUGH AT LEAST 15-18Z. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THIS WILL SPREAD INTO CYS LATER THIS AM...BASED ON EXCELLENT LOW-LVL
SATURATION SEEN ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADZY OVER
THE SUMMIT THROUGH 15Z...BUT WE ARE MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE TEMPORAL
AND SPATIAL EXPANSION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NUMEROUS WYDOT WEBCAM
IMAGES SHOW VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO...SO NO DOUBT THAT TRAVEL WILL BE
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS THROUGH THE EARLY AM HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF CHEYENNE.
NEXT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY. LARGE
SCALE DYNAMICS ARE VERY FAVORABLE WITH A 110 KNOT H25 JET OVER SOUTH
EAST CO AND AN IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN WY BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG/PERSISTENT EASTERLY UPSLOPE IN
THE LOW-LEVELS FURTHER SUPPORTS THIS NOTION. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CYS
TO WHEATLAND...WITH THE GREATEST RISK ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...SO THIS WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES. STILL...SFC
DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 50 F WHICH MAY SUPPORT CAPES UP TO
1500 J/KG AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH EXCELLENT VEERING/INCREASING WINDS PROGGED IN THE
SFC TO 500 MB LAYER. SOUTHERLY 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS AT/ABOVE
50 KTS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT
DISCRETE SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. WE MAY ALSO
SEE A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THESE SHEAR PROFILES...BUT THE BEST CHANCE
SHOULD BE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SLGT RISK
FROM SPC WITH THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK. WE AGREE WITH THE 5 PERCENT TORNADO
PROB ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80.
FLASH FLOODING IS STILL A MAJOR CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT. THE PATTERN
IS FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING CONVECTION AND STORMS TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD
BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. AFTER 00Z...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND DEEP SATURATION. PWATS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE CLIMO AS WELL...AROUND 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IT HIGHLIGHTS THE PRIMARY THREAT
AREAS VERY WELL. NO NEED TO EXPAND IT INTO CONVERSE OR NIOBRARA WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN A SOUTHERN LOW TRACK. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION RATES DURING THE EVENING. THIS IS WHEN THE
OVERALL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE STRONGEST. MODEL CONSENSUS OF QPF IN
THE 00Z TO 12Z SUN TIME FRAME IS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF LARAMIE
COUNTY. FINALLY...OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES...WBZ HEIGHTS ARE
SUGGESTING A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET BY 00Z SUN
WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OCCURRING THEREAFTER. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN 6-12 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT...SO A WINTER WEATHER ADZY
WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AT SOME POINT TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
WET AND COOL PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY DRIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF MONTANA AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DAILY CONVECTION. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OUT TO THE EAST WITH A DRIER MORE SUBSIDENT TYPE AIRMASS
COMING IN FROM THE WEST...DRYING US OUT A BIT MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY WE SEE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS A 120 KT
JETMAX DRIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS THE LARAMIE RANGE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OUT
WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OUT EAST ONTO THE PLAINS GOING INTO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY)
SOME LINGERING FOG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED THROUGH 20Z. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP BY THIS
EVENING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCDR...WHICH MAY
BE LATER THIS EVENING AND HAVE LIGHTER RAINFALL. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 00Z WITH NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AND WIDESPREAD MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. MAY EVEN
BE SOME HAIL NEAR KCYS...KLAR...AND KSNY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH
STRONG ERRATIC WINDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
WET WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FOR THE NEAR TERM...NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016
RIVER FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED OVERNIGHT FOR MITCHELL NEBRASKA.
RELEASES UPSTREAM ON THE LARAMIE ALONG WITH RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL
LAST 24 HOURS IN ADDITION TO ANTICIPATED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL NEXT
FEW DAYS HAS RESULTED IN RISES ON THE NORTH PLATTE. CREST LEVELS
WERE TWEAKED THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE LOWER NORTH PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY DUE TO THE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL BETWEEN DOUGLAS
AND CASPER YESTERDAY. ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL
CONVERSE COUNTY THIS MORNING WITH FLASH FLOODING REPORTED ALONG
ESTERBROOK AND COLD SPRINGS ROADS. ALSO ANTICIPATING GRADUAL RISES
ALONG THE LARAMIE RIVER AT LARAMIE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS EPECTED TODAY...POSSIBLY WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION
SNOWMELT. WE DEFINITELY WANT TO STAY CLOSELY TUNED INTO LATER TRENDS
AS WE GO FORWARD AS WE STILL HAVE SOME SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF GETTING
INTO THE BASIN.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING IN AREAS OF GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TODAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ116>118.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
WYZ101-103-106>108-115>119.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CAH
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...JG
HYDROLOGY...TJT/JG