Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/05/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
638 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE SITUATED
UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN ONTARIO
CANADA. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...A MOIST S-SW FLOW HAS BEEN IN
PLACE...KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS LOCATED OVER OUR AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LOCATED MAINLY EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THIS MOISTURE PLUME AND NEARBY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION ESPECIALLY FROM
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION AND THE GREAT CAPITAL DISTRICT. THESE SHOWERS WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND...WOULD EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS CLOSE BY AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES START TO HEAD EASTWARD...THE 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS TONIGHT...ESP
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR LATER. ANY RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP AROUND...TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE HELD INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW UPPER 30S ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME A CUTOFF LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD...AND THE NEARBY STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A PIECE OF VORTICITY SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SKY
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY OVERCAST ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO THE E-SE FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...AND DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF UNSETTLED AS THE FA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE A
FORECAST OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS RUNNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AT
WHICH TIME THE COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FA WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S.
DRY WEATHER IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.
OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU
AND KPSF. HOWEVER...EVEN KALB AND KGFL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...SO ALL AREAS WILL INDICATE VCSH THROUGH THE
PERIOD SINCE ANY SPECIFIC BRIEF DRY PERIODS BETWEEN AREAS OF
SHOWERS TOUGH TO TIME.
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE JUST SCATTERED AT BEST...SO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT JUST SOME BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN ANY SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MAINLY...WITH SOME PERIODS OF JUST INTO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AT KALB BEFORE CEILINGS LOWER THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERY
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS VERY PERSISTENT.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY CLOUDY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY...ALONG PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RH
VALUES WON/T FALL BELOW 55 PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY.
TOTAL QPF OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE AROUND A HALF INCH...WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOT OVERLY STEADY...AND VEGETATION IN THE PROCESS OF
GREENING UP...THIS RAINFALL WON/T HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS. RIVER LEVELS WILL MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR ONLY SHOW
SOME VERY MINOR RISES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
400 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARE SITUATED
UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN ONTARIO
CANADA. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...A MOIST S-SW FLOW HAS BEEN IN
PLACE...KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS LOCATED OVER OUR AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LOCATED MAINLY EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THIS MOISTURE PLUME AND NEARBY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE REGION.
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE BULK OF THE REGION. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND...WOULD EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS CLOSE BY AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES START TO HEAD EASTWARD...THE 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS TONIGHT...ESP
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR LATER. ANY RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP AROUND...TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE HELD INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW UPPER 30S ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME A CUTOFF LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD...AND THE NEARBY STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A PIECE OF VORTICITY SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SKY
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY OVERCAST ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO THE E-SE FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...AND DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF UNSETTLED AS THE FA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE A
FORECAST OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS RUNNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AT
WHICH TIME THE COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FA WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S.
DRY WEATHER IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.
OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU
AND KPSF. HOWEVER...EVEN KALB AND KGFL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...SO ALL AREAS WILL INDICATE VCSH THROUGH THE
PERIOD SINCE ANY SPECIFIC BRIEF DRY PERIODS BETWEEN AREAS OF
SHOWERS TOUGH TO TIME.
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE JUST SCATTERED AT BEST...SO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT JUST SOME BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN ANY SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MAINLY...WITH SOME PERIODS OF JUST INTO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AT KALB BEFORE CEILINGS LOWER THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERY
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS VERY PERSISTENT.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY CLOUDY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY...ALONG PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RH
VALUES WON/T FALL BELOW 55 PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY.
TOTAL QPF OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE AROUND A HALF INCH...WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOT OVERLY STEADY...AND VEGETATION IN THE PROCESS OF
GREENING UP...THIS RAINFALL WON/T HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS. RIVER LEVELS WILL MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR ONLY SHOW
SOME VERY MINOR RISES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
SITUATED SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD OF NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND. WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NOW HEADING OUT TO SEA...STEADY
RAINFALL HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. MEANWHILE...IT REMAINS
NEARLY FULLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE ONLY
LOCATION WHERE SOME BREAKS ARE OCCURRING ARE ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN OVERCAST. THE OVERCAST MAY BRIEFLY THIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT SKY COVER WILL REMAIN TO BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST A FEW MORE BRIEF
PASSING RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT IN BOTH INTENSITY AND QPF...WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.
WITH THE CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...WITH SOME HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS STUCK IN THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
UPSTREAM WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND WEST BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.
WEDNESDAY...THE GRAY...COOL...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW WILL PIVOT INTO
UPSTATE NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER BOUT OF SHOWERS...INITIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...BUT THEN PUSHING EASTWARD. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE
USED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND U50S
WITH SOME COOLER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...THE CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS S/SE INTO THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE SHOWERS WED
NIGHT SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME...BUT THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION AROUND THE CUTOFF SHOULD FOCUS DIURNALLY TRIGGER ISOLD-
SCT SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THERE IS A CHC LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND
IN THE VALLEYS MAY STAY DRY DEPENDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE H500
CUTOFF IS SITUATED. THE ECMWF FAVORS THIS SCENARIO. THE CUTOFF
DOES SHIFT CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WHICH MAY INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW TO
CLOSE THE WEEK. TEMPS STILL LOOK SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO L60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WITH A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW
FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM WILL GET DURING THE DAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND POPS DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF CUT-OFF LOWS THIS FAR OUT. THERE
IS AT LEAST ENOUGH EVIDENCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO GIVE
MUCH OF OUR REGION AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME
STEADIER RAIN DURING THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME. SO
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
SOME IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY...AS MODEL TRENDS SHOWING
THE CUT-OFF WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY BEING KICKED OUT BY A DIGGING
UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVERHEAD...AS FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SATURDAY BUT
MAINLY WILL BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MILDER WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD REACH 70 DEGREES BY LATE SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
RATHER PROGRESSIVE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM...BUT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING DUE TO DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING IT WILL BE BREEZY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH AS WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU
AND KPSF. HOWEVER...EVEN KALB AND KGFL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...SO ALL AREAS WILL INDICATE VCSH THROUGH THE
PERIOD SINCE ANY SPECIFIC BRIEF DRY PERIODS BETWEEN AREAS OF SHOWERS
TOUGH TO TIME.
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE JUST SCATTERED AT BEST...SO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT JUST SOME BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN ANY SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MAINLY...WITH SOME PERIODS OF JUST INTO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AT KALB BEFORE CEILINGS LOWER THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERY
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS VERY PERSISTENT.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE BERKSHIRES.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE COOL AND DAMP AIR MASS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THE NEXT 5
DAYS ENDING ON SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR INTO NW CT. MINIMAL RISES ARE
EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH EACH DAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
146 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 132 AM EDT...THE LATEST KENX AND REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE A
QUICKER RETURN OF RAIN AND MOISTURE FROM THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE SE PA/MD CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...AND ALONG THE FRONTAL
AXIS. THE TRENDS FROM THE LATEST HRRR IS FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE RAINFALL TO GET TO THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES THIS
MORNING /08-11Z/. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE USED...EXCEPT OVER THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE CATEGORICAL VALUES WERE USED. A
QUICK QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER THE
SE EXTREME OF THE AREA.
MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND U40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S AND L40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR THE DELMARVA WILL BRING
ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD TO JUST ABOUT KALB
THIS MORNING. SO EXPECTING STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS FOR KPOU AND KPSF...WITH KALB
RIGHT ON THE EDGE. RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF KGFL. STEADY
RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA.
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR...LIKELY
DETERIORATING TO PREVAILING IFR BY AROUND 08Z OR 09Z...EXCEPT AT
KGFL WHERE ONLY OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS CIGS RISE TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT IFR CIGS COULD LINGER
AT KPSF MUCH OF THE DAY. VSBYS SHOULD BE MUCH IMPROVED FROM MID
MORNING ON.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY N-NW AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.
MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
132 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 132 AM EDT...THE LATEST KENX AND REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE A
QUICKER RETURN OF RAIN AND MOISTURE FROM THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE SE PA/MD CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...AND ALONG THE FRONTAL
AXIS. THE TRENDS FROM THE LATEST HRRR IS FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE RAINFALL TO GET TO THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES THIS
MORNING /08-11Z/. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE USED...EXCEPT OVER THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE CATEGORICAL VALUES WERE USED. A
QUICK QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER THE
SE EXTREME OF THE AREA.
MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND U40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S AND L40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS HAVE THINNED
IN SOME AREAS WHILE REMAINING OVERCAST AND IFR IN OTHERS. HAVE
GENERALLY TRENDED THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO NOT ONLY REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS BUT A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN MOVING IN AT KPOU LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE. IT
WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY TO SEE REAL IMPROVEMENT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 21Z TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.
MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1037 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.UPDATE...
MORNING RAOB SAMPLED A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THIS IS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL ENTER OUR AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
AS FAR AS THE FORECAST IS CONCERNED FOR TODAY...IT WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE WARM WITH ANOTHER DAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AREA WIDE. WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...STORM MOTION SHOULD RESULT IN AN
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF ANY SEABREEZE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT ANY
CONVECTION MAY REMAIN EAST OF OUR AREA. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED
BY THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES MODELS. MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AND WILL RE-EXAMINE POPS FOR THIS
EVENING DURING THE AFTN FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY LATE MORNING...INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR SCT TSRA LOOKS TO SHIFT INLAND FAIRLY
QUICKLY WITH THE SEABREEZE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCTS AT
KLAL FROM 18Z ON. OTHERWISE VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED AFTER LATE
MORNING INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE TODAY AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING....BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CAUTIONARY LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
SOLID CAUTIONARY TO BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
IN ITS WAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS THEN LOOK TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 74 80 65 / 20 50 70 10
FMY 90 74 85 66 / 30 20 70 20
GIF 89 72 81 62 / 40 30 70 10
SRQ 85 76 81 66 / 20 40 70 20
BKV 87 70 81 59 / 20 60 70 10
SPG 85 75 80 68 / 20 50 70 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/MCKAUGHAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1222 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...
215 PM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN IL...AS
DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID/UPR 30S ACROSS FAR NORTH
CENTRAL IL. FURTHER SOUTH DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 40 THE
LOWER 40S. CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED MINIMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS WEST OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA.
JUST BEYOND PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON THE DIURNAL CUMULUS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE...WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS DIMINISHING
TO AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY RADIATE INTO THE LOWER 40S. HOWEVER
AREAS THAT HAVE HAD DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON FALL INTO THE MIDDLE
30S...TEMPS TONIGHT COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S BETWEEN ROCKFORD
AND WAUKEGAN DOWN TO DEKALB. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST WORDING
OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY... BROAD SFC RIDGING WILL CONSOLIDATE TO A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS...WHICH WILL ALLOW A WEST/EAST GRADIENT TO
DEVELOP MIDDAY TUESDAY. WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY
TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 50S AND EVENTUALLY MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN IL. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AS WELL...WITH THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TURNING TOWARDS
A SHORTWAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND A TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ARRIVING AROUND THE EVENING HOURS FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
248 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
NOAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PACIFIC JET COMING ONSHORE IN THE
WESTERN US BEING FORCED NORTHWARD INTO CANADA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH HELPING TO CURVE THIS JET ANTI-CYCLONICALLY AROUND WESTERN
CANADA. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS JET CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD IN
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL BE
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET AS 500 MB HEIGHTS FALL
IMPRESSIVELY DURING CYCLOGENESIS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PULL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA. GIVEN THE RAPID UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ALONG THE LINE OF SHOWERS.
HEIGHT FALLS TO NEAR 540 DAM ARE PROJECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND
H85 TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. COLD AIR OF
THIS NATURE FALLS INTO THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF ILX/DVN SOUNDINGS
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY. GIVEN THESE ANOMALIES...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS
ONLY HITTING THE UPPER 40S. WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE CENTER OF THE 500 MB LOW PASSING OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...EXPECT WEAK CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
GRAUPEL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL SHOCK WILL COME WITH
THE NEAR FREEZING CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKIES MAY CLEAR
OUT SOME...BUT SURFACE TO H85 RH REMAINS ABOVE 80 PERCENT NEAR THE
LAKE. LUCKILY THE WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE 5-10KT THANKS TO A
LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT. IF EITHER OF THESE TWO INGREDIENTS GO
AWAY IN FUTURE FORECASTS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP 5 DEGREES COOLER.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A PSEUDO OMEGA
BLOCK PATTERN ADVANCING AND SHRINKING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE
CONUS. EXPECT A SHARP INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WILL BE ONGOING. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
BECOME STATIONARY. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN WHILE
KEEPING A PERSISTENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DAYS 6-7
FORECAST.
MM
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS AS THIS HAPPENS...BECOMING GUSTY
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BY AROUND 06Z TUESDAY EVENING
THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE IL/WI STATE LINE...THOUGH THERE IS
STILL A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO VARIOUS TIMING
SOLUTIONS FROM THE MODELS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
THE TERMINALS SOMETIME DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY AND BECOME GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN...WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 KT RANGE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL...WITH LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
248 PM CDT
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL KEEP CALM
CONDITIONS PRESENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN LAKE
TO LAND TEMPERATURES WILL ASSIST IN STABILITY OVER THE LAKE AS
WELL. ON TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT BEFORE SHARPLY SHIFTING NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW GUSTS IN THE UPPER 20S INTO WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING THAT
FRONTAL FEATURE...A STABLE HIGH PRESSURE REGIME IS EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND.
MM
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1124 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
The upper shortwave departing to the east along with the arrival
of dry air from near Lake Michigan has allowed clouds to clear out
in our northeast counties early this evening. Farther NW of
Peoria and Galesburg where diurnal cumulus were more prevalent,
clouds are also decreasing in coverage in general. HRRR output
remains very optimistic that clearing with push quickly east
across our forecast area by sunrise Tuesday. Have sped up the
clearing in the forecast for tonight. Will monitor trends closely,
as night-time clearing can be more troublesome than daytime
clearing trends, due to subsidence inversions and decoupling of
low level winds.
Spotty showers or sprinkles will still be possible in any cloud
cover as the surface trough slowly drifts south toward southern
IL. Will keep isolated rain chances going in the south, with
diminishing coverage from NW to SE the rest of the night.
Have trimmed a degree or two from the overnight lows to account
for possible earlier clearing. Lower 40s appear likely in
locations north of I-72, especially in a areas where clearing has
already developed this evening. Lows should bottom out in the
upper 40s southeast of I-70 where clouds linger the longest.
Updated forecast info is already available.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Main short-term forecast concern will be timing of potential
clearing tonight. While the main surface boundary has dropped south
of the Ohio River, a trailing upper trough extending from Wisconsin
southwestward to Kansas has provided enough synoptic lift to produce
widespread overcast conditions today. Visible satellite loops show
the low cloud cover pivoting southward on the back side of a subtle
upper wave currently over central Illinois. As this feature tracks
further eastward, think clouds will gradually dissipate/clear the
Illinois River Valley this evening. Due to trajectory of cloud
cover and relatively light flow, clouds will likely hold throughout
the entire night along/east of the I-57 corridor. May see a few
isolated light showers this evening: however, most locations will
remain dry. Overnight low temperatures will range from the lower
40s northwest of the Illinois River where clearing will occur
earliest...to around 50 degrees far southeast around Robinson and
Lawrenceville.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Cyclonic flow will continue over the area through Wed. A lull in the
pcpn chances will be seen Tuesday as CWA will be in between troughs
rotating through the area. However, will still keep a slight chance
of showers in the east and southeast Tuesday due to a 500mb trough
moving south through the area...just without any surface reflection.
A bigger and more dominate trough will drop into the area Tue night
through Wed. Pcpn will start in the north Tue evening and then move
south through the area the remainder of the night and then in the
east on Wed. Isolated thunder will also be possible given greater
lapse rates due to cold 500mb temps moving over the area in
association with the upper level low. The pcpn will move off to the
east Wed night, which will allow high pressure to build into the
region with dry weather and slowly warming temps for Thur through
Fri. This surface high pressure ridge will get flattened by the end
of the week as another frontal system drops into the area for the
weekend. With warm and moist air being advected into the area Friday
and Saturday, will be plenty of instability for thunderstorms along
and ahead of the front Sat night through Monday. The front does seem
to hang around the area through the weekend since there will be an
upper level low just east of the US and another one over the
southwest US.
Temps will remain below normal most of the week, but begin to warm
back up as the high pressure that builds in Thursday moves off to
the east, bringing back southerly winds. The warmer temps will
continue through the weekend and into the beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
The clearing line has advanced south late this evening, with no
ceiling anymore at PIA, BMI and CMI. VFR ceilings remain at SPI
and DEC at 7-8K FT, but even those ceilings should erode shortly
after 06z as the upper shortwave shifts east of the region and
drier air continues to work in from the north. Scattered cumulus
will develop by mid morning and may periodically go broken with
bases remaining above MVFR levels through afternoon. A sprinkle or
two can not be ruled out during the flare-up of cumulus during the
day, but most areas will remain dry.
Winds will become light and variable tonight as a weak high
pressure ridge shifts into Illinois overnight. Winds tomorrow will
veer to the WNW and climb to 10-13 kts by mid-afternoon on Tuesday,
ahead of a cold front approaching from the north. Winds will
weaken below 10kt Tue eve as they back to the west-southwest.
Rain showers could develop near the northern terminals of PIA,
BMI, and CMI late in this TAF period, but the better chances will
hold off until after 06z Tuesday night.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
119 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS
WELL INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND CERTAINLY
DRIER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT STILL COOLER
CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CUTS TO EARLY AFTERNOON POPS FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE. LATEST HRRR AND RAP...SUPPORTED BY WATER VAPOR
AND RADAR MOSAIC...INDICATE A PERIOD OF PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
IN THE WAKE OF PASSING COLD FRONT. PIVOTING DEFORMATION AXIS
APPEARS TO REMAIN OVER MICHIGAN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...AT WHICH
POINT IT WILL SWING SOUTHEAST AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE.
ALSO REMOVED THUNDER MENTION. WOULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE IN OUR FAR EAST BUT NOTHING OBSERVED SO FAR AND
COLDER AIR IS PUSHING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT...FURTHER
LIMITING ALREADY PALTRY INSTABILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE
BASE OF THE TROF. THIS IS COMBINING WITH STRONG MASS CONVERGENCE
ALONG ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO GENERATE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TONIGHT. UPPER TROF WILL DIG SOUTH AND CLOSE OFF OVER
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY TODAY...BRINGING 100M HEIGHT FALLS
AND -26C COLD POOL OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT NON-DIURNAL EARLY MORNING HIGH TEMP
IN WESTERN CWA WITH ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING
AND STRONG CAA ON GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL HAVE TEMPS
STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE DAY. PRECIP LINGERS INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW WITH UPPER
LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS INFLUENCE
OF UPPER LOW WANES AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC. RIDGING...SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
AND LEAD TO GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS TEMPS
WARM BACK INTO THE 70S. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS DETACHED TO THE NORTH AND
LOW LEVEL FORCING WEAKENS AS FRONT TAKES ON EAST/WEST ORIENTATION
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. FRONT WILL ALSO BE LACKING IN MOISTURE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER GULF OF MEXICO.
THEREFORE LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP DEVELOPING AND WILL CUT POPS
FROM SUPERBLEND TO SMALL CHANCE. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO UPPER LOW
THAT WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY. DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING RESULTING FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE OUR AREA DRY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OFFERING VARYING SOLNS HANDLING
UPPER LOW BUT AGREEMENT CAN BE FOUND WITH A SLOWER TREND FOR
BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN
SUPERBLEND POPS AS WELL WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
CIGS HAVE JUST LIFTED TO MVFR AT KSBN AND EXPECT MVFR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL PIVOT BACK SOUTHWARD
LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...IMPACTING PRIMARILY KSBN AFTER
21Z AS EASTWARD EXTENT IN QUESTION. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE INDICATES
CIGS TO DROP BACK INTO IFR CATEGORY THIS EVENING AS SFC TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND
CLEARING EXPECTED NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-
046.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AGD
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER/AGD/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
304 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PARENT SHORT WAVE WAS JUST DROPPING
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES WITH DEEP FORCING AND COLD FRONT ALOFT
AIDING LIFT...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOTED ALONG COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MN AT 19Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED...KEEPING INSTABILITY VERY LOW AND THUNDER POTENTIAL
DOWN...HOWEVER EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY A BIT AS IT
BECOMES HIGH BASED BUT SURFACE ROOTED INTO THE EVENING. SOUNDINGS
DEPICT BASES AROUND 6KFT WITH FULL MIXING UNDERNEATH SO THERE MAY BE
SOME SUB SEVERE WIND GUSTS ABOVE AMBIENT LEVELS FROM TIME TO TIME.
THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR BOTH SHOW IT INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY AS IT
REACHES ERN IA...INCLUDING OUR ERN FORECAST AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXIT OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPS AS WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW.
.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
MAIN CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND A FEW
MINOR IMPULSES GRAZING THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. BEYOND THAT THE
FOCUS SHIFTS TO LONG WAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN UP AND BECOME THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT WAVE NOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
TRAILING COOL FRONT OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z TOMORROW. IN ITS WAKE
H850 TEMPERATURES COOL TO 0C TO 4C NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BY 12Z.
BREEZY WIND WITH 15 TO 25 MPH NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. DESPITE
SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT...OVERALL HIGHS WILL BE SOME 5
TO 7 DEGREES COOLER OVER MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF I35 WHILE WEST
OF I35...TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER CLOSER TO TODAYS LEVELS INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH JUST
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW LIGHT WINDS
TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER A GOOD SHARE OF THE REGION...
EVEN THOUGH GFS HINTS AT SOME RETURN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVER THE FAR NORTH SOME 30S WILL BE LIKELY. BY THURSDAY
SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE WINNIPEG MOVES EAST ALLOWING FOR STRONGER
WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BE DRAWN INTO THE PLAINS. WITH LITTLE RETURN
OF MOISTURE...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ALREADY IN THE 60S/70S AND IN THE 70S/80S ON FRIDAY.
MIXING IS MUCH BETTER ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COOL FRONT
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON INSTABILITY
INCREASING OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOWERS WILL DEPART NORTHERN IA BUT CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH TWO THIRDS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FORECAST INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY
BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH DECENT HAIL CAPE AT THIS TIME...EURO BULK
SHEAR/MUCAPE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WILL MONITOR FOR
TRENDS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE...THE BOUNDARY SLIPS INTO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER STORM BEGINS
TO GATHER IN THE WESTERN PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO THE H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EAST BY THAT TIME. THOUGH
SOLUTIONS DIFFER BETWEEN THE EURO/GFS...MAINLY STANDARD BIASES...
OF TIMING...BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A STRENGTHENING AND MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EVENTUALLY DEEPENS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE PHASING
WITH THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINFALL...WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A CURSORY LOOK AT WIND FIELDS AND
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/PLACEMENT REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
REMAIN MILD...60S AND 70S WILL BE COMMON FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND 50S.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
PRIMARY CONCERN WOULD BE POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...STILL ACROSS NRN MN AT 18Z. THIS
SHOULD REACH IA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING ERN
SITES /KMCW/KALO/KOTM/ WITH PRECIP 00Z-07Z. THIS CONVECTION WOULD
BE HIGH BASED HOWEVER AND ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE BRIEF SO
HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO THUNDER DEPICTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD UNTIL TRENDS IN THIS WINDOW BECOME MORE CLEAR.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1100 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS. THESE HAVE BECOME MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE OVER THE PAST
HOUR...SO HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS POINT. THE
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
ROTATING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN. THIS MAY BE A BIT ON
THE FAST-SIDE...SO HAVE STUCK WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST TIMING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 40S IN PLACES
ALREADY...WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLOUDS LOOK TO FILL
BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES IN FROM INDIANA...SO AROUND
40 DEGREES STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR A LOW. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME
PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION...SPARKED FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THIS LINE PUT DOWN QUITE A FEW INSTANCES OF PEA-SIZED HAIL AS WELL
AS SOME GUSTY WINDS AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY. EXPECT THE WEAKENING
TREND TO CONTINUE AS LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WILL
HANG ONTO ISOLATED THUNDER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE LIKELY
ELIMINATING IT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KY...OH AND INDIANA. THERE HAS
NOT BEEN ANY LIGHTNING SO FAR WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM MOREHEAD TO SOMERSET. HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS SHOWING
UP WITH SOME OF THE STORMS FURTHER WEST NEAR AND ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL FEEL A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THUNDER
POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MI INTO KY. THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING SE OF KY ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE COLD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER FOR THURSDAY IN AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
COOL START AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BUT WE QUICKLY WARM UP
BY SATURDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY RIDE SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP THIS CHANCE SHOWERS GIVEN THE SETUP.
BY SATURDAY RETURN FLOW TAKES OVER AND WE SEE WARMER TEMPS SURGE
INTO THE UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE DO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE
FAR NORTH AND EAST. THEN THE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS...AS
A FRONT DIVES SOUTH AND MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE INITIAL SHOT WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS SOUTH AND SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL
SETUP. THEN THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AND EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH...AS
A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY WHERE WE LOOK TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER. THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EAST WITH SEVERAL WAVES RIDING INTO THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT OFF TO
THE EAST IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. CONDITIONS COULD DROP DOWN
TEMPORARILY TO IFR WITHIN THE MORE SUSTAINED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ONCE THIS LINE EXITS...WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SCARCE. SOME FOG MAY SET
IN ACROSS SOME OF THE VALLEYS THAT SAW RAINFALL EARLIER AND HAVE
INCLUDED AN MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT SME BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
AFTER 12Z THU. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1238 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TUESDAY.
A NEW LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WATERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TO COASTAL
AREAS. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH OVERNIGHT/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
AREA OF RAIN IS QUICKLY MOVING NE PER THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. MOST
AREAS TO THE SW HAVE BEGUN TO DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN AS WELL. SOME
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE
LATEST RUN OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR 3KM MODEL DOING WELL W/THE SETUP.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA.
AS IT DOES SO, TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE N AND W AS TEMPS FALL
BACK INTO THE LOW 30S. ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS TO THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRATIFORM RAIN HAS FINALLY REACHED THE STATE AS OF AN HR AGO.
PATCHY RAIN CONTS ACRS THE NORTH ALONG SFC TROF. EXPECT STEADY
RAIN WL MV INTO CWA SHORTLY AND WL OVERSPREAD AREA INTO THE EVNG
HRS AHD OF POTENT S/WV LIFTING INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD
LO-LVL MOISTURE WL CONTINUE AS PCPN PULLS EAST INTO CANADA LVG
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG PRESENT DRG THE OVRNGT. QPF AMNTS THRU MRNG
WL RANGE FM 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES, LOCALLY HIGHER IN DOWNEAST AREAS
WHERE PW VALUES INCREASE TO NR 1.00 INCH AND 25-30KT LLJ WL BE
PRESENT THRU EARLY EVNG.
MAY SEE A VRY BRIEF TIMEFRAME FOR LGT SNOW TO MIX IN, MAINLY ACRS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NW AROOSTOOK. MIN TEMPS WL BE ARND 33F ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BRDR SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
A DUSTING.
EXPECT TO SEE LOW CLDS AND FOG LINGERING THRU TUE MRNG WITH LITTLE
PCPN RMNG. MAXES ON TUE WL LKLY APPCH NORMAL VALUES WITH VRY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CLD AIR BEING PULLED IN ON NRLY FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL, NOT TOO BAD FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN WEDGED
BACK INTO MAINE. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, EJECTING SHORTWAVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST AS IT DOES SO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HAVING A HARD TIME
DECIDING EXACTLY WHAT WILL BECOME OF THESE SHORTWAVES. THE 02/12Z
NAM AND 02/00Z ECMWF TAKE THE SURFACE LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
PERHAPS JUST BRUSH COASTAL AREAS WITH SOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, THE 02Z/12Z GFS AND GEM BRING THE
SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO SHORE, SPREADING A DECENT SWATH OF RAIN INTO
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE WITH A
CONSENSUS BLEND FOR POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE DIFFERENCES, WHICH
LEAD TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A MATURE LOW OVER DELMARVA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT EXTENDING NE THROUGH NRN MAINE...WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER
MAKER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW WILL VERTICALLY STACK
WITH THE UPPER LOW AND REMAIN STATIONARY OVER DELMARVA/NJ THROUGH
EARLY SAT MRNG...THEN START DRIFTING OUT TO SEA. A NEW LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE JAMES BAY REGION...AND MOVE INTO WRN MAINE
EARLY SUN MRNG...AND EAST OF MAINE SUN AFTERNOON. THOUGH THERE ARE
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...THEY ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
LOADED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.
LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. USED THE WINDGUST
BY FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL BE IFR-MVFR NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR
KHUL NORTH TO KFVE WILL LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT. ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE IFR OVERNIGHT IN -DZ AND FOG BEFORE RISING TO LOW MVFR BY MID
MORNING. FURTHER IMPROVMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES, WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY LOWER TO BELOW 3000 FT WITH VISIBILITIES HOVERING IN THE
MVFR RANGE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 4-5 FEET ON THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING. EXPECT WAVES WILL REMAIN AROUND 5FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS THRU 09Z. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING BY OFFSHORE. AT THIS TIME, A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KT LOOK POSSIBLE, BUT OVERALL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. IF ANY HEADLINES ARE NEEDED,
IT WOULD BE A LOW-END SCA.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
745 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
RIDGE FROM HE ROCKIES INTO SASK AND A TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH
ERN UPPER MI TO INDIANA. AT THE SFC...GUSTY NORTH WINDS PREVAILED
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI BETWEEN 1001 MB LOW PRES OVER SRN
LOWER MI AND A RIDGE FROM NW ONTARIO INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. VIS
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED THINNING CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI AS THE 900-700
MB MOISTURE THINS OUT WITH DAYTIME MIXING AND THE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA.
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE CLEARING TREND HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER THAN
FCST...EXPECT THAT BTWN 21Z-24Z MOST OF THE REMAINING CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER THE WEST
WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE WITH MIN READINGS IN THE MID 20S OVER THE
INTERIOR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
THURSDAY...MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING INTO THE WRN LAKES WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER WEATHER. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND. THE WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT KEEPING MAX READINGS IN THE 50S NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY
FRI...ALLOWING UPPER RIDGE AND SFC WARM FRONT TO BRING WARM
SUMMERLIKE TEMPS BRIEFLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRI AFTN. INITIAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON EDGE OF STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES UP TO 8C/KM
COULD TRIGGER ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER MAINLY LK SUPERIOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING WHERE STRONGEST H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION LINKS UP WITH
SUFFICIENT H85-H7 MOISTURE. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN...EXPECT
SCT MID CLOUDS TO START THE DAY FRI...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN
WITH H85 TEMPS TO +16 SUPPORTS GOING FORECAST OF 70S EAST DOWNSTREAM
OF LK MICHIGAN TO MID-UPR 80S WEST IN THE AFTN. DWPNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S...SO RH VALUES DROP TO 20-25 PCT IN THE AFTN. SW-S
WINDS LOOKS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EARLIER MODEL FORECASTS SHOWED BUT
STILL GUSTS PEAKING AT 20 MPH WILL KEEP AREA BLO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP EYE ON IN TERMS OF IF
STRONGER TREND IN WINDS CONTINUES. NAM/GFS TRY TO SHOW POCKET OF
DWPNTS FM LOW-MID 50S AND THUS GENERATE SBCAPE OVER 1000J/KG OVER
CNTRL CWA FRI AFTN AND SHOW SOME CONVECTION. COULD MAYBE SEE DWPNTS
UP TO 50 LOCALLY MAINLY NEAR WI BORDER SOUTH CNTRL. OVERALL PATTERN
WITH LOWERING H85-H7 RH FAVORS DEEPER MIXING AND LOWER DWPNTS...SO
WILL KEEP FRI AFTN WARM BUT WITH NO CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
WARMTH WILL BE BRIEF AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO
PUSHES SFC-H85 COLD FRONT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATE EVENING NORTHWEST
TO OVERNIGHT SCNTRL. EVEN THOUGH STRONGER PVA STAYS NORTH CLOSER TO
TRACK OF MAIN SHORTWAVE ACROSS ONTARIO...DIFFLUENT H5-H3 FLOW AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT FAVORS BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSRA WITH CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM. AS
FOR STRENGTH OF TSRA...UNLESS FRONT ARRIVES 00Z-03Z INSTEAD OF MORE
03Z-06Z...LIKELY LOOKING AT ELEVATED STORMS. ELEVATED MUCAPE
FORECASTS VARY WITH NAM SHOWING UP TO 2000J/KG AT 00Z SAT MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN WI WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE MAINLY 500J/KG OR LESS. ECMWF
KEEPS MOST INSTABILITY FARTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST OF CWA FRI NIGHT. MEAN
FLOW IS WNW SO IF ECMWF IS CORRECT...MOST OF TSRA WOULD REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF CWA. IF MODELS WITH MORE BULLISH INSTABILITY FARTHER
EAST ARE CORRECT...THERE IS ENOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO RESULT IN
STRONGER STORMS. SPC HAS MOST OF CWA WITHIN GENERAL TSRA RISK FRI
AND FRI NIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH MAIN HINDRANCE THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY. ATTM LOOKS LIKE TOTAL RAINFALL FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT WILL BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS...SIMILAR TO
FROPA THAT JUST OCCURRED TUE AFTN INTO THIS MORNING.
TURNING BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL NOT BE
A COOL AS TODAY BUT THE COOLING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COMPARED TO THE
SUMMERTIME WARMTH ON FRI...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. SHOULD DRY
OUT WITH RH VALUES DOWN TO 25-30 PCT SAT AFTN. IF SHOWERS AND TSRA
ARE MORE SPOTTY ON FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN MINIMAL RAIN...THE
STRONGER WINDS AND LOW RH WOULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
ON SAT AFTN OVER INTERIOR WEST AS TEMPS STILL REACH INTO THE 60S.
RE-INFORCING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO MEAN TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND
POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
ISOLD-SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER EAST HALF.
A BIT QUICKER TREND IN MODELS SUGGESTS SHRA/TSRA COULD MOVE OVER
KEWEENAW AS EARLY AS MID-LATE SAT AFTN. OTHERWISE...REST OF LONG
TERM SUN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS GENERALLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN THERE IN CASE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TUE AND/OR WED.
LATEST ECMWF WOULD POINT TO AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH 60S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN VCNTY RESULTS IN LAKE BREEZES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
AS DRIER AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX THRU THE FCST
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KSAW WILL CLEAR OUT THIS
EVENING...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THEREAFTER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KNOTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN WESTERLY UNDER 20
KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
418 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE RODCKIES NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN CANADA RESULTING IN
NNW FLOW FROM MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALEY AND WRN LAKES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NW LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LOW PRES JUST
WEST OF JAMES BAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ASSOCIATED 800-600 MB FGEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF UPPER MI. SOME ISOLD
TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR CYQT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS STRONGEST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FGEN AREA SLIDES TO THE SE AND THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. SOME ISOLD TSRA WILL ALSO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT. CAA WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS.
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LATE TONIGHT WHERE NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IS STRONGEST OVER THE N CNTRL UPPER MI. AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROP AFTER 06Z...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. WITH LOWS
ONLY TO AROUND 34...ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
GRASSY SURFACES.
WEDNESDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO IN/OH
KEEPING COLD NRLY FLOW GOING INTO UPPER MI. EXPECT ENOUGH DEEP
MOISTURE TO LINGER WITH SATURATION NEAR -8C TO -10C LAYER TO
MINIMIZE DZ CHANCES. SO...UPSLOPE SOME SN/RA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI IN THE MORNING WITH POTENTIAL TO TRANSITION TO
SOME DZ BY AFTERNOON AS THE 850-600 MOISTURE DEPARTS. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO 50
SOUTH EVEN AS SUNSHINE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY GIVES WAY TO RISING
HEIGHTS THU INTO FRI AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST. SFC
HIGH MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH DRY WEATHER. BLO FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY OVER INTERIOR WEST BENEATH RIDGE AXIS ON WED NIGHT.
ONCE THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST...WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES
WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AWAY FM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH READINGS INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT
WINDS LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING AND H85 TEMPS 14-
16C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
DESPITE THE WARMTH...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS SFC-
H85 DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE SO MIN RH SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THU
AND LIKE THU THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRASHES THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED
WITH THE FROPA. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF TSRA WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /H7-H5 LAPSE RATES CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE
AT 6.5C/KM AND MUCAPE UP TO 250 J/KG/...BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DO NOT EXPECT
STRONG TSRA. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BUT
MOSTLY DRY. GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20
MPH INLAND. IF WATER TEMPS WERE WARMER ON LK SUPERIOR SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED SWIM RISK. CURRENT WATER TEMPS AROUND 40 IN
THE NEARSHORE SO NOT AN ISSUE QUITE YET.
WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF EXTENDED /DAYTIME HIGHS 60S AND MAYBE
SLIGHTLY WARMER/ AS UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER GREAT LAKES.
DIFFERENCES ARISE MON INTO TUE ON HOW QUICK UPPER TROUGH BRINGS SFC
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS QUICKEST WHILE GEM
IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE.
REGARDLESS...WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TOO HIGH IMPACT AS EVEN WITH
GFS IDEA BULK OF HIGHER INSTABILITY BOTH SFC AND ELEVATED REMAINS
TOO FAR SW TO BRING ANY STRONGER TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS UPR MICHIGAN.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TUE SHOWS MORE CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ATTM...BUT IF THE SLOWER IDEA WORKS OUT...DRY WEATHER WOULD HOLD
UNTIL LATE TUE AND TUE WOULD BECOME MORE OF A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE
WITH TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND
MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KSAW WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AFTERNOON. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
RESTRIC VSBY. KCMX AND KIWD WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS LIKELY THERE. IN
FACT...THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT KIWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS
OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
416 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE RODCKIES NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN CANADA RESULTING IN
NNW FLOW FROM MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALEY AND WRN LAKES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NW LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LOW PRES JUST
WEST OF JAMES BAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ASSOCIATED 800-600 MB FGEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF UPPER MI. SOME ISOLD
TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR CYQT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS STRONGEST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FGEN AREA SLIDES TO THE SE AND THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. SOME ISOLD TSRA WILL ALSO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT. CAA WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS.
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LATE TONIGHT WHERE NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IS STRONGEST OVER THE N CNTRL UPPER MI. AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROP AFTER 06Z...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. WITH LOWS
ONLY TO AROUND 34...ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
GRASSY SURFACES.
WEDNESDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO IN/OH
KEEPING COLD NRLY FLOW GOING INTO UPPER MI. EXPECT ENOUGH DEEP
MOISTURE TO LINGER WITH SATURATION NEAR -8C TO -10C LAYER TO
MINIMIZE DZ CHANCES. SO...UPSLOPE SOME SN/RA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI IN THE MORNING WITH POTENTIAL TO TRANSITION TO
SOME DZ BY AFTERNOON AS THE 850-600 MOISTURE DEPARTS. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO 50
SOUTH EVEN AS SUNSHINE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY GIVES WAY TO RISING
HEIGHTS THU INTO FRI AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST. SFC
HIGH MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH DRY WEATHER. BLO FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY OVER INTERIOR WEST BENEATH RIDGE AXIS ON WED NIGHT.
ONCE THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST...WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES
WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AWAY FM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH READINGS INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT
WINDS LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING AND H85 TEMPS 14-
16C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
DESPITE THE WARMTH...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS SFC-
H85 DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE SO MIN RH SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THU
AND LIKE THU THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRASHES THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED
WITH THE FROPA. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF TSRA WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /H7-H5 LAPSE RATES CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE
AT 6.5C/KM AND MUCAPE UP TO 250 J/KG/...BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DO NOT EXPECT
STRONG TSRA. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BUT
MOSTLY DRY. GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20
MPH INLAND. IF WATER TEMPS WERE WARMER ON LK SUPERIOR SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED SWIM RISK. CURRENT WATER TEMPS AROUND 40 IN
THE NEARSHORE SO NOT AN ISSUE QUITE YET.
WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF EXTENDED /DAYTIME HIGHS 60S AND MAYBE
SLIGHTLY WARMER/ AS UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER GREAT LAKES.
DIFFERENCES ARISE MON INTO TUE ON HOW QUICK UPPER TROUGH BRINGS SFC
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS QUICKEST WHILE GEM
IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE.
REGARDLESS...WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TOO HIGH IMPACT AS EVEN WITH
GFS IDEA BULK OF HIGHER INSTABILITY BOTH SFC AND ELEVATED REMAINS
TOO FAR SW TO BRING ANY STRONGER TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS UPR MICHIGAN.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TUE SHOWS MORE CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ATTM...BUT IF THE SLOWER IDEA WORKS OUT...DRY WEATHER WOULD HOLD
UNTIL LATE TUE AND TUE WOULD BECOME MORE OF A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE
WITH TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND
MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KSAW WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AFTERNOON. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
RESTRIC VSBY. KCMX AND KIWD WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS LIKELY THERE. IN
FACT...THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT KIWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WSW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH
WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
330 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN
MANITOBA INTO THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NW
ONTARIO WILL BE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS
FCST IT TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGE HAS MOVED SE IN ADVANCE OF
TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO. SOME MID-LVL WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE SPILLED INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN
UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
TODAY...MODELS SHOW THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 250-300 MB
JET MAX NOSING INTO MN. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE 200-500 J/KG
RANGE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7C OR GREATER MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA...OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF
SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHRA MAKING IT
INTO THE CNTRL AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES
INTO THE 25-35 PCT RANGE COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS FOR
MAINLY THE WRN/CENTRAL INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH FACTORS ARE MARGINAL FOR
MEETING LOCAL CRITERIA DECIDED TO ISSUE A WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
STATEMENT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF ELEVATED WILDFIRE
CONCERNS/POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA AS FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY E OF THE
REGION. CAA WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS. COULD
SEE NORTH WINDS GUST 25-30 MPH OVERNIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FM
KEWEENAW EAST TO WHITEFISH POINT. LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
WITH ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT COULD ALSO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT -SHSN TO MIX IN WITH -SHRA/-DZ MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NCNTRL. EXPECT COVERAGE OF -SHRA TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
MID-LVL DRYING AS SHALLOW MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW -10C ISOTHERM WL
SUPPORT MORE -DZ.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY GIVES WAY TO RISING
HEIGHTS THU INTO FRI AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST. SFC
HIGH MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH DRY WEATHER. BLO FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY OVER INTERIOR WEST BENEATH RIDGE AXIS ON WED NIGHT.
ONCE THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST...WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES
WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AWAY FM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH READINGS INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT
WINDS LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING AND H85 TEMPS 14-
16C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
DESPITE THE WARMTH...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS SFC-
H85 DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE SO MIN RH SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THU
AND LIKE THU THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRASHES THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED
WITH THE FROPA. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF TSRA WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /H7-H5 LAPSE RATES CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE
AT 6.5C/KM AND MUCAPE UP TO 250 J/KG/...BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DO NOT EXPECT
STRONG TSRA. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BUT
MOSTLY DRY. GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20
MPH INLAND. IF WATER TEMPS WERE WARMER ON LK SUPERIOR SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED SWIM RISK. CURRENT WATER TEMPS AROUND 40 IN
THE NEARSHORE SO NOT AN ISSUE QUITE YET.
WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF EXTENDED /DAYTIME HIGHS 60S AND MAYBE
SLIGHTLY WARMER/ AS UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER GREAT LAKES.
DIFFERENCES ARISE MON INTO TUE ON HOW QUICK UPPER TROUGH BRINGS SFC
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS QUICKEST WHILE GEM
IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE.
REGARDLESS...WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TOO HIGH IMPACT AS EVEN WITH
GFS IDEA BULK OF HIGHER INSTABILITY BOTH SFC AND ELEVATED REMAINS
TOO FAR SW TO BRING ANY STRONGER TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS UPR MICHIGAN.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TUE SHOWS MORE CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ATTM...BUT IF THE SLOWER IDEA WORKS OUT...DRY WEATHER WOULD HOLD
UNTIL LATE TUE AND TUE WOULD BECOME MORE OF A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE
WITH TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND
MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KSAW WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AFTERNOON. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
RESTRIC VSBY. KCMX AND KIWD WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS LIKELY THERE. IN
FACT...THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT KIWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WSW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH
WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
256 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN
MANITOBA INTO THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NW
ONTARIO WILL BE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS
FCST IT TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGE HAS MOVED SE IN ADVANCE OF
TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO. SOME MID-LVL WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE SPILLED INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN
UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
TODAY...MODELS SHOW THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 250-300 MB
JET MAX NOSING INTO MN. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE 200-500 J/KG
RANGE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7C OR GREATER MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA...OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF
SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHRA MAKING IT
INTO THE CNTRL AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES
INTO THE 25-35 PCT RANGE COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS FOR
MAINLY THE WRN/CENTRAL INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH FACTORS ARE MARGINAL FOR
MEETING LOCAL CRITERIA DECIDED TO ISSUE A WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
STATEMENT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF ELEVATED WILDFIRE
CONCERNS/POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA AS FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY E OF THE
REGION. CAA WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS. COULD
SEE NORTH WINDS GUST 25-30 MPH OVERNIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FM
KEWEENAW EAST TO WHITEFISH POINT. LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
WITH ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT COULD ALSO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT -SHSN TO MIX IN WITH -SHRA/-DZ MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NCNTRL. EXPECT COVERAGE OF -SHRA TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
MID-LVL DRYING AS SHALLOW MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW -10C ISOTHERM WL
SUPPORT MORE -DZ.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WEDNESDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS PRECIP WILL
STALL OVER LOWER MI ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...UPSLOPE FLOW
WITH N TO NNW WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY COMPARED TO TODAY. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
INLAND...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC LOW ACROSS LOWER MI TO NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND A LAKE-INDUCED MESO-HIGH ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL RESULT IN N TO NNW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CENTRAL AND
EAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WAA PRECIP
ACROSS THE FAR WEST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD AS AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMS ACROSS THE
CONUS. WITH THE RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES...WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE TRENDED
UP WITH TEMPS FOR FRI GIVEN IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS AND H8 TEMPS
AROUND 15C FOR THE WEST. SHOULD SEE A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR
WEST HALF CRACK THE 80F MARK...WHILE TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE LOWER
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS FASTER TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
FRONT NOW CLEARING THE CWA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH A RESIDUAL EML FROM FRIDAY SUPPORT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME. SAT WILL BRING
COOLER CONDITIONS...BUT THE CHANGE WONT BE AS DRASTIC AS WILL BE THE
CASE BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS THEN MODERATE
MONDAY AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND
MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KSAW WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AFTERNOON. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
RESTRIC VSBY. KCMX AND KIWD WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS LIKELY THERE. IN
FACT...THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT KIWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WSW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH
WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
741 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN
MANITOBA INTO THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NW
ONTARIO WILL BE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS
FCST IT TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGE HAS MOVED SE IN ADVANCE OF
TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO. SOME MID-LVL WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE SPILLED INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN
UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
TODAY...MODELS SHOW THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 250-300 MB
JET MAX NOSING INTO MN. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE 200-500 J/KG
RANGE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7C OR GREATER MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA...OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF
SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHRA MAKING IT
INTO THE CNTRL AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES
INTO THE 25-35 PCT RANGE COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS FOR
MAINLY THE WRN/CENTRAL INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH FACTORS ARE MARGINAL FOR
MEETING LOCAL CRITERIA DECIDED TO ISSUE A WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
STATEMENT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF ELEVATED WILDFIRE
CONCERNS/POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA AS FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY E OF THE
REGION. CAA WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS. COULD
SEE NORTH WINDS GUST 25-30 MPH OVERNIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FM
KEWEENAW EAST TO WHITEFISH POINT. LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
WITH ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT COULD ALSO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT -SHSN TO MIX IN WITH -SHRA/-DZ MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NCNTRL. EXPECT COVERAGE OF -SHRA TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
MID-LVL DRYING AS SHALLOW MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW -10C ISOTHERM WL
SUPPORT MORE -DZ.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WEDNESDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS PRECIP WILL
STALL OVER LOWER MI ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...UPSLOPE FLOW
WITH N TO NNW WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY COMPARED TO TODAY. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
INLAND...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC LOW ACROSS LOWER MI TO NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND A LAKE-INDUCED MESO-HIGH ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL RESULT IN N TO NNW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CENTRAL AND
EAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WAA PRECIP
ACROSS THE FAR WEST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD AS AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMS ACROSS THE
CONUS. WITH THE RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES...WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE TRENDED
UP WITH TEMPS FOR FRI GIVEN IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS AND H8 TEMPS
AROUND 15C FOR THE WEST. SHOULD SEE A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR
WEST HALF CRACK THE 80F MARK...WHILE TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE LOWER
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS FASTER TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
FRONT NOW CLEARING THE CWA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH A RESIDUAL EML FROM FRIDAY SUPPORT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME. SAT WILL BRING
COOLER CONDITIONS...BUT THE CHANGE WONT BE AS DRASTIC AS WILL BE THE
CASE BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS THEN MODERATE
MONDAY AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KSAW WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO WED MORNING. KCMX AND KIWD WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS LIKELY THERE.
IN FACT...THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT KIWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AT BOTH KCMX AND
KSAW. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WSW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH
WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
513 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN
MANITOBA INTO THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NW
ONTARIO WILL BE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS
FCST IT TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGE HAS MOVED SE IN ADVANCE OF
TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO. SOME MID-LVL WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE SPILLED INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN
UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
TODAY...MODELS SHOW THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 250-300 MB
JET MAX NOSING INTO MN. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE 200-500 J/KG
RANGE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7C OR GREATER MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA...OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF
SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHRA MAKING IT
INTO THE CNTRL AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES
INTO THE 25-35 PCT RANGE COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS FOR
MAINLY THE WRN/CENTRAL INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH FACTORS ARE MARGINAL FOR
MEETING LOCAL CRITERIA DECIDED TO ISSUE A WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
STATEMENT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF ELEVATED WILDFIRE
CONCERNS/POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA AS FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY E OF THE
REGION. CAA WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS. COULD
SEE NORTH WINDS GUST 25-30 MPH OVERNIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FM
KEWEENAW EAST TO WHITEFISH POINT. LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
WITH ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT COULD ALSO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT -SHSN TO MIX IN WITH -SHRA/-DZ MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NCNTRL. EXPECT COVERAGE OF -SHRA TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
MID-LVL DRYING AS SHALLOW MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW -10C ISOTHERM WL
SUPPORT MORE -DZ.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WEDNESDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS PRECIP WILL
STALL OVER LOWER MI ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...UPSLOPE FLOW
WITH N TO NNW WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY COMPARED TO TODAY. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
INLAND...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC LOW ACROSS LOWER MI TO NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND A LAKE-INDUCED MESO-HIGH ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL RESULT IN N TO NNW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CENTRAL AND
EAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WAA PRECIP
ACROSS THE FAR WEST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD AS AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMS ACROSS THE
CONUS. WITH THE RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES...WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE TRENDED
UP WITH TEMPS FOR FRI GIVEN IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS AND H8 TEMPS
AROUND 15C FOR THE WEST. SHOULD SEE A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR
WEST HALF CRACK THE 80F MARK...WHILE TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE LOWER
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS FASTER TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
FRONT NOW CLEARING THE CWA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH A RESIDUAL EML FROM FRIDAY SUPPORT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME. SAT WILL BRING
COOLER CONDITIONS...BUT THE CHANGE WONT BE AS DRASTIC AS WILL BE THE
CASE BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS THEN MODERATE
MONDAY AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITION BELOW
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WSW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH
WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
505 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN
MANITOBA INTO THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NW
ONTARIO WILL BE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS
FCST IT TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGE HAS MOVED SE IN ADVANCE OF
TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO. SOME MID-LVL WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE SPILLED INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN
UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
TODAY...MODELS SHOW THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 250-300 MB
JET MAX NOSING INTO MN. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE 200-500 J/KG
RANGE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7C OR GREATER MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA...OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF
SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHRA MAKING IT
INTO THE CNTRL AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES
INTO THE 25-35 PCT RANGE COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS FOR
MAINLY THE WRN INTERIOR. GIVEN THAT FACTORS WERE MARGINAL FOR
MEETING LOCAL CRITERIA DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT BUT WILL PLAY UP STRONGER WORDING IN FWF AND HWO
PRODUCTS.
TONIGHT...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA AS FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY E OF THE
REGION. CAA WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS. COULD
SEE NORTH WINDS GUST 25-30 MPH OVERNIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FM
KEWEENAW EAST TO WHITEFISH POINT. LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
WITH ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT COULD ALSO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT -SHSN TO MIX IN WITH -SHRA/-DZ MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NCNTRL. EXPECT COVERAGE OF -SHRA TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
MID-LVL DRYING AS SHALLOW MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW -10C ISOTHERM WL
SUPPORT MORE -DZ.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WEDNESDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS PRECIP WILL
STALL OVER LOWER MI ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...UPSLOPE FLOW
WITH N TO NNW WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY COMPARED TO TODAY. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
INLAND...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC LOW ACROSS LOWER MI TO NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND A LAKE-INDUCED MESO-HIGH ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL RESULT IN N TO NNW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CENTRAL AND
EAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WAA PRECIP
ACROSS THE FAR WEST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD AS AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMS ACROSS THE
CONUS. WITH THE RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES...WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE TRENDED
UP WITH TEMPS FOR FRI GIVEN IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS AND H8 TEMPS
AROUND 15C FOR THE WEST. SHOULD SEE A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR
WEST HALF CRACK THE 80F MARK...WHILE TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE LOWER
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS FASTER TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
FRONT NOW CLEARING THE CWA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH A RESIDUAL EML FROM FRIDAY SUPPORT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME. SAT WILL BRING
COOLER CONDITIONS...BUT THE CHANGE WONT BE AS DRASTIC AS WILL BE THE
CASE BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS THEN MODERATE
MONDAY AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITION BELOW
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WSW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH
WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
416 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN MANITOBA INTO
THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO NRN
MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY HAS BROUGHT LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE TO UPPER
MI WITH INLAND CU INLAND WEST AND NEAR LAKE MI OVER THE EAST.
TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE SE LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NRN ONTARIO. ADVANCING WAA MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING FROM DEVELOPING SW
GRADIENT WIND BETWEEN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING TROUGH
SHOULD ALLOW FALLING TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN CLIMB TOWARD
SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
CENTRAL AND EAST. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE 40 NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WEST.
TUESDAY...THE VIGOROUS NRN MANITOBA SHRTWV TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INTO THE NRN LAKES BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH
THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 250-300 MB JET. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE
200-400 J/KG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT
SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE CNTRL
AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES... TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES INTO THE
25-35 PCT RANGE WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WEDNESDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS PRECIP WILL
STALL OVER LOWER MI ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...UPSLOPE FLOW
WITH N TO NNW WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY COMPARED TO TODAY. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
INLAND...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC LOW ACROSS LOWER MI TO NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND A LAKE-INDUCED MESO-HIGH ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL RESULT IN N TO NNW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CENTRAL AND
EAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WAA PRECIP
ACROSS THE FAR WEST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD AS AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMS ACROSS THE
CONUS. WITH THE RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES...WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE TRENDED
UP WITH TEMPS FOR FRI GIVEN IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS AND H8 TEMPS
AROUND 15C FOR THE WEST. SHOULD SEE A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR
WEST HALF CRACK THE 80F MARK...WHILE TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE LOWER
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS FASTER TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
FRONT NOW CLEARING THE CWA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH A RESIDUAL EML FROM FRIDAY SUPPORT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME. SAT WILL BRING
COOLER CONDITIONS...BUT THE CHANGE WONT BE AS DRASTIC AS WILL BE THE
CASE BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS THEN MODERATE
MONDAY AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITION BELOW
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO
20 KNOTS. AS RIDGE SAGS SE TONIGHT...WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME
N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH WINDS TO
LESS THAN 20KT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
324 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN MANITOBA INTO
THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO NRN
MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY HAS BROUGHT LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE TO UPPER
MI WITH INLAND CU INLAND WEST AND NEAR LAKE MI OVER THE EAST.
TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE SE LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NRN ONTARIO. ADVANCING WAA MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING FROM DEVELOPING SW
GRADIENT WIND BETWEEN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING TROUGH
SHOULD ALLOW FALLING TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN CLIMB TOWARD
SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
CENTRAL AND EAST. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE 40 NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WEST.
TUESDAY...THE VIGOROUS NRN MANITOBA SHRTWV TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INTO THE NRN LAKES BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH
THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 250-300 MB JET. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE
200-400 J/KG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT
SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE CNTRL
AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES... TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES INTO THE
25-35 PCT RANGE WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z WED THAT
DIGS SOUTHWARD ON WED AND DIGS A DEEP TROUGH THAT AFFECTS THE EAST
COAST 00Z FRI. THE NAM TAKES SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE CWA 00Z WED AND MOVES IT OUT ON WED.
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL AND WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES. DID KEEP PCPN
IN FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AND STILL LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL. KEPT IT
DRY FOR WED NIGHT AND THEN LOOKED LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SLIGHT
POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR THU MORNING.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 500 MB TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS
AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS 12Z FRI. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES 12Z FRI THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE
AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT AND MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
ON MON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITION BELOW
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO
20 KNOTS. AS RIDGE SAGS SE TONIGHT...WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME
N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH WINDS TO
LESS THAN 20KT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...- NONE -
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1039 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
TWO CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST IS THE THREAT OF FROST
TONIGHT WHILE THE SECOND IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI ON THURSDAY.
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FA AT MID
AFTERNOON WITH THE REGION SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WAS QUITE LOW AND IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
THE SYSTEM OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
PRECIPITOUSLY DUE TO THE LOW DEW POINTS. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S COMMON. THE LOWER 30S ARE MAINLY CONFINED FROM RUSK
THROUGH EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES WHERE A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IN THE FACT THAT IT MAY BE TOO COLD OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE IN THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DAMAGE FROM THE FROST MAY BE OVER BY THE TIME THE
CLOUDS THICKEN SO THE FROST ADVISORY WAS LEFT IN PLACE.
THE INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LEADS INTO THE SECOND CONCERN
OF WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI
ON THURSDAY. THE CLOUDINESS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE AND WAA
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SATURATION AND ADIABATIC OMEGA WAS MOST
NOTABLE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN FA THURSDAY MORNING ON THE NAM 300K
THETA SURFACE. THIS MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
VARIOUS CAMS INCLUDING THE HOPRWRF-TS...NAMNEST...NSSL AND HRRR SHOW
AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AFTER
06Z AND PUSHING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD.
IN ADDITION...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW. SURROUNDING OFFICES
WERE NOT SOLD ON THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WENT WITH A SPRINKLE
FORECAST. WE USED A VARIETY OF SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS AND INTRODUCED
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING FROM LADYSMITH
THROUGH EAU CLAIRE. LITTLE CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN EAU CLAIRE TO
THE LOWER 80S IN CANBY AND MORRIS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE THUNDER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER AIR PATTERN EARLY/INTO MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK.
THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST A BIT FASTER ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST DETERMINISITIC RUNS. THE SREF AND 12Z NAM ARE THE
SLOWEST WITH THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION BY 00Z SAT. IT SHOULD BE
POSITIONED NEAR A KJMR-KSTC-KMOX LINE AT THAT TIME. STILL SEE A
GOOD THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND 85-90F LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
BET FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/SRN MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
INCREASES AND THERE REMAINS WEAK FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WE WILL
HOLD ONTO THE SMALL CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY IN THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD
AND TRAIL THEM OFF THROUGH 12Z SAT.
COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR
THE WISCONSIN FISHING OPENER ALONG WITH MOTHERS DAY ON SUNDAY.
THE LONG TERM MODELS DIVERGE LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH THE OVERALL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN CONUS CUTOFF CIRCULATION. THE GFS
CARRIES MUCH OF THE SYSTEM THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE...WITH PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN THIRD AFFECTED MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF LIFTING A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS
OVER THE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE
GENERALLY CLOUDIER/COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE BLENDED MODEL POP GUIDANCE FOR NOW AND SEE IF
THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN FUTURE RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...BUT A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
WI TOMORROW MORNING. EVEN IF THE RAIN MATERIALIZES...THE CLOUD
BASES WILL REMAIN HIGH.
KMSP...
THERE COULD BE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE RADAR EAST OF THE
AIRPORT IN THE MORNING. NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC TSRA FRI EVENING. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ016-027-028.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
643 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
TWO CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST IS THE THREAT OF FROST
TONIGHT WHILE THE SECOND IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI ON THURSDAY.
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FA AT MID
AFTERNOON WITH THE REGION SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WAS QUITE LOW AND IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
THE SYSTEM OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
PRECIPITOUSLY DUE TO THE LOW DEW POINTS. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S COMMON. THE LOWER 30S ARE MAINLY CONFINED FROM RUSK
THROUGH EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES WHERE A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IN THE FACT THAT IT MAY BE TOO COLD OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE IN THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DAMAGE FROM THE FROST MAY BE OVER BY THE TIME THE
CLOUDS THICKEN SO THE FROST ADVISORY WAS LEFT IN PLACE.
THE INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LEADS INTO THE SECOND CONCERN
OF WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI
ON THURSDAY. THE CLOUDINESS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE AND WAA
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SATURATION AND ADIABATIC OMEGA WAS MOST
NOTABLE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN FA THURSDAY MORNING ON THE NAM 300K
THETA SURFACE. THIS MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
VARIOUS CAMS INCLUDING THE HOPRWRF-TS...NAMNEST...NSSL AND HRRR SHOW
AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AFTER
06Z AND PUSHING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD.
IN ADDITION...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW. SURROUNDING OFFICES
WERE NOT SOLD ON THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WENT WITH A SPRINKLE
FORECAST. WE USED A VARIETY OF SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS AND INTRODUCED
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING FROM LADYSMITH
THROUGH EAU CLAIRE. LITTLE CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN EAU CLAIRE TO
THE LOWER 80S IN CANBY AND MORRIS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE THUNDER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER AIR PATTERN EARLY/INTO MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK.
THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST A BIT FASTER ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST DETERMINISITIC RUNS. THE SREF AND 12Z NAM ARE THE
SLOWEST WITH THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION BY 00Z SAT. IT SHOULD BE
POSITIONED NEAR A KJMR-KSTC-KMOX LINE AT THAT TIME. STILL SEE A
GOOD THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND 85-90F LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
BET FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/SRN MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
INCREASES AND THERE REMAINS WEAK FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WE WILL
HOLD ONTO THE SMALL CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY IN THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD
AND TRAIL THEM OFF THROUGH 12Z SAT.
COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR
THE WISCONSIN FISHING OPENER ALONG WITH MOTHERS DAY ON SUNDAY.
THE LONG TERM MODELS DIVERGE LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH THE OVERALL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN CONUS CUTOFF CIRCULATION. THE GFS
CARRIES MUCH OF THE SYSTEM THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE...WITH PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN THIRD AFFECTED MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF LIFTING A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS
OVER THE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE
GENERALLY CLOUDIER/COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE BLENDED MODEL POP GUIDANCE FOR NOW AND SEE IF
THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN FUTURE RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND COULD EVEN GO NEAR CALM
TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE MN/WI
BORDER AND IN WESTERN WI TOMORROW MORNING. EVEN IF THE RAIN
MATERIALIZES...THE CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN HIGH.
KMSP...
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ON THE RADAR EAST OF THE AIRPORT IN
THE MORNING. NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC TSRA FRI EVENING. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ016-027-028.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1242 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
GIVEN THAT THE MAJORITY OF WEATHER "CONCERNS" (MAINLY JUST PESKY
LIGHT RAIN IN THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE FOG
IN THE NORTHWEST) WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS SHOULD BE
A PRETTY QUIET TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD DOMINATED BY DRY
WEATHER/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A CONTINUED CLIMB IN HIGH TEMPS...AND
FAIRLY LIGHT BREEZES. PER LONG TERM EARLY-MAY HIGH TEMP
AVERAGES...TODAY SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO "NORMAL" FOR THE DATE.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 08Z/3AM:
THE NIGHT IS GENERALLY PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED 12-24 HOURS
AGO...WITH MOST OF THE CWA REMAINING DRY WHILE AN AREA OF STEADY
LIGHT RAIN HAS THUS FAR REMAINED MAINLY TO OUR WEST...BUT STILL
BRUSHING INTO A FEW OF OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES NAMELY
DAWSON/GOSPER/FURNAS. HOWEVER...EVEN WELL EAST OF THIS MAIN LIGHT
RAIN BAND...A FEW ROGUE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SPRUNG UP AS FAR EAST
AS JEWELL/MITCHELL COUNTIES. SKY COVER AT THIS HOUR IS SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE OVER THE CWA...BUT GENERALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF IS
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNDER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WHILE THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS VARIABILITY IN SKY COVER IS RESULTING
IN TRICKY HOURLY TEMP TRENDS...AS SOME CLEARER AREAS HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED TO NEAR 40...WHILE CLOUDY AREAS ARE MAINLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 40S. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY INDICATE OUR CURRENT RAIN-MAKER
IN THE FORM A WEST-EAST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
DROPPING DUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE JUST TO OUR WEST...A VERY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...PROMINENT FEATURES ARE HARD TO COME BY...AS BREEZES
ACROSS THE CWA ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AT SPEEDS
MAINLY AT/BELOW 7 MPH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS OF A SUBTLE
SURFACE TROUGH STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST WISE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
EARLY THIS MORNING (ROUGHLY THROUGH SUNRISE):
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...MOST OF THE EXPECTED "WEATHER" DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TAKES PLACE DURING THESE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO. ANY
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS SOUTHWEST OF
AN ELWOOD-BELOIT LINE...ALTHOUGH HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE JUST IN CASE
MODELS SUCH AS THE LATEST HRRR ARE CORRECT IN MAYBE BRINGING A FEW
ROGUE LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE VICINITY OF KEARNEY/MINDEN/RED CLOUD.
AS FOR RAIN AMOUNTS...THE VAST MAJORITY OF PLACES AFFECTED BY THIS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOULD ONLY SEE AROUND 0.05" OR LESS.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SINKS SOUTH...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY START
CLEARING FROM NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY-
CONCERNED ABOUT FOG POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO INSERT A
GENERIC "PATCHY FOG" MENTION INTO THE FAR WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST
CWA FOR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...GENERALLY NORTHWEST
OF A GREELEY-COZAD LINE...PER THE SUGGESTION OF MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR/RAP13. GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SURFACE TEMP-
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES AT THIS POINT. AS FOR
LOW TEMPS...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
39-42 RANGE...AND THUS REMAIN "SAFE" FROM FROST CONCERNS.
DAYTIME HOURS (AFTER 7 AM):
BY THIS TIME THE VAST MAJORITY OF LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE OVER WITH. HOWEVER...WITH A LITTLE MID LEVEL
FORCING/SATURATION STILL LINGERING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWARD-DIVING DISTURBANCE FINALLY
DEPARTS...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES MAINLY IN THE 7-9 AM
TIME FRAME MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED A BRIEF MORNING SPRINKLE MENTION TO COVER THIS. ALSO AS
COVERED IN THE PRECEDING EARLY-MORNING SECTION...WILL LINGER SOME
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH AROUND 9 AM IN A FEW FAR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...BY AND LARGE...THIS SHOULD BE A PRETTY DARN
PLEASANT AND DRY DAY OVERALL. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STEADILY DEPART INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
/MID-SOUTH BY DAY`S END...ALLOWING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO RISE AS
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BECOMES OUR MORE DOMINANT INFLUENCE.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES THIS
MORNING SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. EVEN SO...SUSTAINED
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 10-15
MPH...GENERALLY STRONGEST WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS
FOR SKY COVER...EXPECT THINGS TO MAINLY AVERAGE "MOSTLY SUNNY"
ONCE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT TO THE SOUTH...BUT COULD FORESEE AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF "PARTLY CLOUDY" DUE TO A COMBO OF POSSIBLE
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND/OR A BATCH
OF THIN HIGH CIRRUS SPILLING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. TEMP-
WISE...GIVEN THE FAIRLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS/RESULTANT LIMITED MIXING
AND ALSO SOME POSSIBLE EFFECT OF LINGERING MOIST GROUND...OPTED TO
PLAY A TOUCH CONSERVATIVE AND ACTUALLY NUDGED DOWN HIGHS 1-2
DEGREES MOST AREAS. EVEN SO...HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA INTO
THE 67-70 RANGE...WHICH WILL MARK THE MILDEST DAY IN A WEEK.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
BY THIS TIME THE ENTIRE CWA IS FIRMLY PLANTED UNDER THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE WESTERN RIDGE. MEANWHILE...OFF TO
OUR EAST/NORTHEAST...A WAVE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST STATES COULD SPARK AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT
COULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN IA...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
ALMOST CERTAINLY REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED
THE GOING DRY FORECAST. IN FACT...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE
CLEAR...WITH FEW IF ANY ROGUE PASSING CLOUDS. AT THE
SURFACE...COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A GREAT LAKES LOW/TROUGH AND A RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED TO OUR WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD PROMOTE A LIGHT-BUT-STEADY
WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH EVEN
HINTS OF A WEAK "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT EDGING INTO MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA LATE IN THE NIGHT. DESPITE THIS SOMEWHAT STEADIER
LIGHT BREEZE...THINK THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROBABLY HAVE MORE OF AN
EFFECT ON ENHANCING COOLING POTENTIAL. AIMED LOW TEMPS TOWARD THE
COLDER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BOTTOMING OUT MOST OF THE CWA IN THE 41-44 RANGE. THAT
BEING SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS
SNEAK A FEW DEGREES BELOW THIS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
OVERVIEW...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL VERY SLOWLY SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO OUR FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL WILL SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS HIGHS CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 70S ON
WEDNESDAY...TO THE UPPER 70S FOR THURSDAY...AND THE LOWER 80S BY
FRIDAY. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT...BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND OUR
PAST FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE TOO
FAR WEST FOR US TO SEE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN UNTIL SATURDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. OUR RAIN CHANCES GO UP SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
VORT MAX ROTATES NORTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AROUND THE LARGER
UPPER LOW. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...BUT GIVEN SHEAR AND WIND PROFILES CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. FOR THAT MATTER...CAN NOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY EITHER...AND WE
WILL ACTUALLY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS IN THAT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS
FAR OUT...CONFIDENCE IN STILL VERY LOW IN THE MESOSCALE FEATURES AND
HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...CLIMATOLOGICALLY GIVEN THE BIG UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST AND
THE TIME OF YEAR...IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS
UPPER SYSTEM EVOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL...GIVE OR TAKE A FEW DEGREES OF 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
636 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
GIVEN THAT THE MAJORITY OF WEATHER "CONCERNS" (MAINLY JUST PESKY
LIGHT RAIN IN THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE FOG
IN THE NORTHWEST) WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS SHOULD BE
A PRETTY QUIET TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD DOMINATED BY DRY
WEATHER/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A CONTINUED CLIMB IN HIGH TEMPS...AND
FAIRLY LIGHT BREEZES. PER LONG TERM EARLY-MAY HIGH TEMP
AVERAGES...TODAY SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO "NORMAL" FOR THE DATE.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 08Z/3AM:
THE NIGHT IS GENERALLY PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED 12-24 HOURS
AGO...WITH MOST OF THE CWA REMAINING DRY WHILE AN AREA OF STEADY
LIGHT RAIN HAS THUS FAR REMAINED MAINLY TO OUR WEST...BUT STILL
BRUSHING INTO A FEW OF OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES NAMELY
DAWSON/GOSPER/FURNAS. HOWEVER...EVEN WELL EAST OF THIS MAIN LIGHT
RAIN BAND...A FEW ROGUE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SPRUNG UP AS FAR EAST
AS JEWELL/MITCHELL COUNTIES. SKY COVER AT THIS HOUR IS SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE OVER THE CWA...BUT GENERALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF IS
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNDER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WHILE THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS VARIABILITY IN SKY COVER IS RESULTING
IN TRICKY HOURLY TEMP TRENDS...AS SOME CLEARER AREAS HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED TO NEAR 40...WHILE CLOUDY AREAS ARE MAINLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 40S. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY INDICATE OUR CURRENT RAIN-MAKER
IN THE FORM A WEST-EAST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
DROPPING DUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE JUST TO OUR WEST...A VERY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...PROMINENT FEATURES ARE HARD TO COME BY...AS BREEZES
ACROSS THE CWA ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AT SPEEDS
MAINLY AT/BELOW 7 MPH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS OF A SUBTLE
SURFACE TROUGH STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST WISE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
EARLY THIS MORNING (ROUGHLY THROUGH SUNRISE):
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...MOST OF THE EXPECTED "WEATHER" DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TAKES PLACE DURING THESE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO. ANY
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS SOUTHWEST OF
AN ELWOOD-BELOIT LINE...ALTHOUGH HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE JUST IN CASE
MODELS SUCH AS THE LATEST HRRR ARE CORRECT IN MAYBE BRINGING A FEW
ROGUE LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE VICINITY OF KEARNEY/MINDEN/RED CLOUD.
AS FOR RAIN AMOUNTS...THE VAST MAJORITY OF PLACES AFFECTED BY THIS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOULD ONLY SEE AROUND 0.05" OR LESS.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SINKS SOUTH...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY START
CLEARING FROM NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY-
CONCERNED ABOUT FOG POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO INSERT A
GENERIC "PATCHY FOG" MENTION INTO THE FAR WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST
CWA FOR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...GENERALLY NORTHWEST
OF A GREELEY-COZAD LINE...PER THE SUGGESTION OF MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR/RAP13. GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SURFACE TEMP-
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES AT THIS POINT. AS FOR
LOW TEMPS...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
39-42 RANGE...AND THUS REMAIN "SAFE" FROM FROST CONCERNS.
DAYTIME HOURS (AFTER 7 AM):
BY THIS TIME THE VAST MAJORITY OF LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE OVER WITH. HOWEVER...WITH A LITTLE MID LEVEL
FORCING/SATURATION STILL LINGERING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWARD-DIVING DISTURBANCE FINALLY
DEPARTS...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES MAINLY IN THE 7-9 AM
TIME FRAME MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED A BRIEF MORNING SPRINKLE MENTION TO COVER THIS. ALSO AS
COVERED IN THE PRECEDING EARLY-MORNING SECTION...WILL LINGER SOME
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH AROUND 9 AM IN A FEW FAR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...BY AND LARGE...THIS SHOULD BE A PRETTY DARN
PLEASANT AND DRY DAY OVERALL. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STEADILY DEPART INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
/MID-SOUTH BY DAY`S END...ALLOWING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO RISE AS
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BECOMES OUR MORE DOMINANT INFLUENCE.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES THIS
MORNING SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. EVEN SO...SUSTAINED
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 10-15
MPH...GENERALLY STRONGEST WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS
FOR SKY COVER...EXPECT THINGS TO MAINLY AVERAGE "MOSTLY SUNNY"
ONCE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT TO THE SOUTH...BUT COULD FORESEE AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF "PARTLY CLOUDY" DUE TO A COMBO OF POSSIBLE
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND/OR A BATCH
OF THIN HIGH CIRRUS SPILLING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. TEMP-
WISE...GIVEN THE FAIRLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS/RESULTANT LIMITED MIXING
AND ALSO SOME POSSIBLE EFFECT OF LINGERING MOIST GROUND...OPTED TO
PLAY A TOUCH CONSERVATIVE AND ACTUALLY NUDGED DOWN HIGHS 1-2
DEGREES MOST AREAS. EVEN SO...HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA INTO
THE 67-70 RANGE...WHICH WILL MARK THE MILDEST DAY IN A WEEK.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
BY THIS TIME THE ENTIRE CWA IS FIRMLY PLANTED UNDER THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE WESTERN RIDGE. MEANWHILE...OFF TO
OUR EAST/NORTHEAST...A WAVE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST STATES COULD SPARK AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT
COULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN IA...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
ALMOST CERTAINLY REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED
THE GOING DRY FORECAST. IN FACT...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE
CLEAR...WITH FEW IF ANY ROGUE PASSING CLOUDS. AT THE
SURFACE...COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A GREAT LAKES LOW/TROUGH AND A RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED TO OUR WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD PROMOTE A LIGHT-BUT-STEADY
WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH EVEN
HINTS OF A WEAK "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT EDGING INTO MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA LATE IN THE NIGHT. DESPITE THIS SOMEWHAT STEADIER
LIGHT BREEZE...THINK THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROBABLY HAVE MORE OF AN
EFFECT ON ENHANCING COOLING POTENTIAL. AIMED LOW TEMPS TOWARD THE
COLDER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BOTTOMING OUT MOST OF THE CWA IN THE 41-44 RANGE. THAT
BEING SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS
SNEAK A FEW DEGREES BELOW THIS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
OVERVIEW...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL VERY SLOWLY SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO OUR FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL WILL SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS HIGHS CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 70S ON
WEDNESDAY...TO THE UPPER 70S FOR THURSDAY...AND THE LOWER 80S BY
FRIDAY. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT...BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND OUR
PAST FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE TOO
FAR WEST FOR US TO SEE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN UNTIL SATURDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. OUR RAIN CHANCES GO UP SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
VORT MAX ROTATES NORTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AROUND THE LARGER
UPPER LOW. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...BUT GIVEN SHEAR AND WIND PROFILES CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. FOR THAT MATTER...CAN NOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY EITHER...AND WE
WILL ACTUALLY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS IN THAT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS
FAR OUT...CONFIDENCE IN STILL VERY LOW IN THE MESOSCALE FEATURES AND
HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...CLIMATOLOGICALLY GIVEN THE BIG UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST AND
THE TIME OF YEAR...IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS
UPPER SYSTEM EVOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL...GIVE OR TAKE A FEW DEGREES OF 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ONLY A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUD
COVER AND ALMOST ZERO CHANCE OF RAIN. FURTHERMORE...SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS
AVERAGING UNDER 12KT ALMOST THE ENTIRE TIME AND EVEN UNDER 6KT
THROUGH MOST OF THESE FIRST 6 HOURS. THE OVERALL "STRONGEST"
BREEZES WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...AVERAGING AROUND 11KT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 06Z...THERE COULD BE A
FEW HOURS OF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS)...BUT THIS
CURRENTLY DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO BE TAF-WORTHY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
GIVEN THAT THE MAJORITY OF WEATHER "CONCERNS" (MAINLY JUST PESKY
LIGHT RAIN IN THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE FOG
IN THE NORTHWEST) WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS SHOULD BE
A PRETTY QUIET TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD DOMINATED BY DRY
WEATHER/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A CONTINUED CLIMB IN HIGH TEMPS...AND
FAIRLY LIGHT BREEZES. PER LONG TERM EARLY-MAY HIGH TEMP
AVERAGES...TODAY SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO "NORMAL" FOR THE DATE.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 08Z/3AM:
THE NIGHT IS GENERALLY PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED 12-24 HOURS
AGO...WITH MOST OF THE CWA REMAINING DRY WHILE AN AREA OF STEADY
LIGHT RAIN HAS THUS FAR REMAINED MAINLY TO OUR WEST...BUT STILL
BRUSHING INTO A FEW OF OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES NAMELY
DAWSON/GOSPER/FURNAS. HOWEVER...EVEN WELL EAST OF THIS MAIN LIGHT
RAIN BAND...A FEW ROGUE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SPRUNG UP AS FAR EAST
AS JEWELL/MITCHELL COUNTIES. SKY COVER AT THIS HOUR IS SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE OVER THE CWA...BUT GENERALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF IS
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNDER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WHILE THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS VARIABILITY IN SKY COVER IS RESULTING
IN TRICKY HOURLY TEMP TRENDS...AS SOME CLEARER AREAS HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED TO NEAR 40...WHILE CLOUDY AREAS ARE MAINLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 40S. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY INDICATE OUR CURRENT RAIN-MAKER
IN THE FORM A WEST-EAST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
DROPPING DUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE JUST TO OUR WEST...A VERY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...PROMINENT FEATURES ARE HARD TO COME BY...AS BREEZES
ACROSS THE CWA ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AT SPEEDS
MAINLY AT/BELOW 7 MPH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS OF A SUBTLE
SURFACE TROUGH STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST WISE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
EARLY THIS MORNING (ROUGHLY THROUGH SUNRISE):
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...MOST OF THE EXPECTED "WEATHER" DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TAKES PLACE DURING THESE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO. ANY
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS SOUTHWEST OF
AN ELWOOD-BELOIT LINE...ALTHOUGH HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE JUST IN CASE
MODELS SUCH AS THE LATEST HRRR ARE CORRECT IN MAYBE BRINGING A FEW
ROGUE LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE VICINITY OF KEARNEY/MINDEN/RED CLOUD.
AS FOR RAIN AMOUNTS...THE VAST MAJORITY OF PLACES AFFECTED BY THIS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOULD ONLY SEE AROUND 0.05" OR LESS.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SINKS SOUTH...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY START
CLEARING FROM NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY-
CONCERNED ABOUT FOG POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO INSERT A
GENERIC "PATCHY FOG" MENTION INTO THE FAR WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST
CWA FOR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...GENERALLY NORTHWEST
OF A GREELEY-COZAD LINE...PER THE SUGGESTION OF MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR/RAP13. GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SURFACE TEMP-
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES AT THIS POINT. AS FOR
LOW TEMPS...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
39-42 RANGE...AND THUS REMAIN "SAFE" FROM FROST CONCERNS.
DAYTIME HOURS (AFTER 7 AM):
BY THIS TIME THE VAST MAJORITY OF LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE OVER WITH. HOWEVER...WITH A LITTLE MID LEVEL
FORCING/SATURATION STILL LINGERING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWARD-DIVING DISTURBANCE FINALLY
DEPARTS...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES MAINLY IN THE 7-9 AM
TIME FRAME MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED A BRIEF MORNING SPRINKLE MENTION TO COVER THIS. ALSO AS
COVERED IN THE PRECEDING EARLY-MORNING SECTION...WILL LINGER SOME
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH AROUND 9 AM IN A FEW FAR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...BY AND LARGE...THIS SHOULD BE A PRETTY DARN
PLEASANT AND DRY DAY OVERALL. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STEADILY DEPART INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
/MID-SOUTH BY DAY`S END...ALLOWING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO RISE AS
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BECOMES OUR MORE DOMINANT INFLUENCE.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES THIS
MORNING SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. EVEN SO...SUSTAINED
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 10-15
MPH...GENERALLY STRONGEST WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS
FOR SKY COVER...EXPECT THINGS TO MAINLY AVERAGE "MOSTLY SUNNY"
ONCE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT TO THE SOUTH...BUT COULD FORESEE AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF "PARTLY CLOUDY" DUE TO A COMBO OF POSSIBLE
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND/OR A BATCH
OF THIN HIGH CIRRUS SPILLING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. TEMP-
WISE...GIVEN THE FAIRLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS/RESULTANT LIMITED MIXING
AND ALSO SOME POSSIBLE EFFECT OF LINGERING MOIST GROUND...OPTED TO
PLAY A TOUCH CONSERVATIVE AND ACTUALLY NUDGED DOWN HIGHS 1-2
DEGREES MOST AREAS. EVEN SO...HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA INTO
THE 67-70 RANGE...WHICH WILL MARK THE MILDEST DAY IN A WEEK.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
BY THIS TIME THE ENTIRE CWA IS FIRMLY PLANTED UNDER THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE WESTERN RIDGE. MEANWHILE...OFF TO
OUR EAST/NORTHEAST...A WAVE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST STATES COULD SPARK AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT
COULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN IA...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
ALMOST CERTAINLY REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED
THE GOING DRY FORECAST. IN FACT...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE
CLEAR...WITH FEW IF ANY ROGUE PASSING CLOUDS. AT THE
SURFACE...COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A GREAT LAKES LOW/TROUGH AND A RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED TO OUR WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD PROMOTE A LIGHT-BUT-STEADY
WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH EVEN
HINTS OF A WEAK "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT EDGING INTO MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA LATE IN THE NIGHT. DESPITE THIS SOMEWHAT STEADIER
LIGHT BREEZE...THINK THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROBABLY HAVE MORE OF AN
EFFECT ON ENHANCING COOLING POTENTIAL. AIMED LOW TEMPS TOWARD THE
COLDER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BOTTOMING OUT MOST OF THE CWA IN THE 41-44 RANGE. THAT
BEING SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS
SNEAK A FEW DEGREES BELOW THIS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
OVERVIEW...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL VERY SLOWLY SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO OUR FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL WILL SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS HIGHS CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 70S ON
WEDNESDAY...TO THE UPPER 70S FOR THURSDAY...AND THE LOWER 80S BY
FRIDAY. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT...BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND OUR
PAST FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE TOO
FAR WEST FOR US TO SEE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN UNTIL SATURDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. OUR RAIN CHANCES GO UP SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
VORT MAX ROTATES NORTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AROUND THE LARGER
UPPER LOW. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...BUT GIVEN SHEAR AND WIND PROFILES CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. FOR THAT MATTER...CAN NOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY EITHER...AND WE
WILL ACTUALLY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS IN THAT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS
FAR OUT...CONFIDENCE IN STILL VERY LOW IN THE MESOSCALE FEATURES AND
HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...CLIMATOLOGICALLY GIVEN THE BIG UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST AND
THE TIME OF YEAR...IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS
UPPER SYSTEM EVOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL...GIVE OR TAKE A FEW DEGREES OF 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ONLY A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK PREVAILING DURING THESE
FIRST 6 HOURS BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE REST OF
THE TIME. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT MAINLY KEAR COULD CATCH
A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MOST OF THIS LIGHT
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST 25 MILES TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SO
WILL OMIT A FORMAL MENTION. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING UNDER 12KT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TIME AND EVEN UNDER 6KT THROUGH MOST OF THESE FIRST
12 HOURS. THE OVERALL "STRONGEST" BREEZES WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON...AVERAGING AROUND 11KT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1007 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE
LOWS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM WED...SHRA HAVE MAINLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING WITH
WITH VERY ISOLD RETURNS NRN COASTAL PLAIN. THINK WILL BE MAINLY
DRY OVERNIGHT WITH POSS ISOLD ACTIVITY NW TIER. COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH S THRU REGION. AS NNE WINDS DEVELOP IN WAKE OF FRONT EXPECT
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG TO SPREAD SW OVER THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S INLAND AND
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /PERHAPS MONTHLY-DAILY
RECORDS FOR TEMPS ALOFT/ AND SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WAS TEMPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP LIKELY OVER THE NW THIRD OF THE
REGION WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CELLS DUE TO THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE MID 60S
OUTER BANKS AND UPPER 6OS TO LOWER 70S INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...AN OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OUT TO SEA BY
LATE SATURDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
THE APPROACHING UPPER CLOSED LOW SUPPLYING A ROUND OR TWO OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST SFC LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
YIELD CHC SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH WHERE
THE BEST LIFT IS REALIZED. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER EARLY SATURDAY WITH A SCHC SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING RAPIDLY, SO FEEL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DWINDLE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
GIVEN WEST WINDS, CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY, TEMPERATURE
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 ON FRIDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY
ALLOWING SUBSIDENCE SATURDAY. THIS IN ADDITION TO LESS CLOUD
COVER/SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO
THE LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE OBX.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY JUST
AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO CROSS LATE SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE FRONT
EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FEEL THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS BETTER LIFT AND
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD, PERHAPS DROPPING A
DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY GIVEN THE FRONT BISECTING EASTERN NC. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPS REALLY RAMP UP BY MID WEEK
AS WARM RETURN FLOW INCREASES. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO MID
70S ALONG THE OBX. LOW TEMPS INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL,
LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 645 PM WED...VFR THRU THE EVENING WITH SCT CLOUD...ISOLD
CONVECTION SHLD STAY E OF TAF SITES EARLY EVENING. AFTER 06Z WENT
CLOSE TO HRRR MODEL WITH IFR STRATUS SPREADING SW OVER ERN
NC...COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS LOW LVLS WILL BE SATURATED. THIS
STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONT THRU ABOUT 12Z THEN SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY MAINLY VFR THU. VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW TSRA DEVELOPING OVER REGION LATER WHICH
COULD LEAD TO OCNL SUB VFR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WITH A SERIES OF SFC LOWS CROSSING THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY, EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE OFF AND ON AT
THE TAF SITES WITH VARIABLE WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POSSIBLY SCHC SHOWERS EARLY
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA. GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING WE
COULD SEE STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH MONDAY
AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. RETURN FLOW INCREASES
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL STALL ACROSS EASTERN
NC AND BECOME WASHED OUT. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FROPA.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 955 PM WED...NO CHANGES WITH NNE WINDS SPREADING S IN WAKE
OF FRONT IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE.
PREV DISC...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WAS BECOMING STATIONARY FROM JUST SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET SOUTHWEST TO JUST WEST OF THE CRYSTAL COAST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SW FLOW IS 10 TO 15 KT WHILE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WINDS
ARE NORTH AROUND 10 KT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT. EXPECT THE
NORTHERLY FLOW TO SPREAD WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT
BECOME NE 10 TO 15 KT NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER BEHIND
THE FRONT AND EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW 10 KT OR LESS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS/FRONTS WILL CROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MEAN VARIABLE
WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS AND SEAS AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY,
JUST AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL CROSS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, BECOMING
WASHED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS MONDAY. GIVEN THIS PATTERN,
EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...RF/LEP
MARINE...RF/JME/LEP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
120 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIP
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING CHILLIER
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED GUSTY SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DRYING AND WARMING WILL FOLLOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 120 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THE EARLY MORNING UPDATES.
SHOWERS WERE STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVE.
THERE WERE STILL A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN BLADEN COUNTY. WE EXPECT THE ONGOING ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN LATE THIS EVE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THEN INTO GEORGIA. WE EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION WILL NOT DISSIPATE EVEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AS A GULF OF MEXICO TAP COMBINES WITH FRONTAL LIFT AND A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH.
DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A STRONG
UPSTREAM TROUGH. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SW AND W. THUS...HIGH POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE ARW AND HRRR HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY
ROLL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 07-08Z AND 13-14Z.
THE MAIN RISK WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE INTO
THE SHORT TERM AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN
CONUS. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SERIES OF FACTORS COME IN TO PLAY...INCLUDING FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES...DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT...IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED MORE OR
LESS ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL EITHER
STALL OR SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE THEREAFTER. BOTH GFS AND NAM
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS COULD BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THEN. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL DRYING AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS THE
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...SO EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...EASTERN EDGE OF OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. THE
5H LOW/TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL LIKELY
LEADING TO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE WITH NORTHERN LOCATIONS THE MOST
FAVORED. SIMILAR STORY...MINUS THE COLD FRONT...FRI AND POSSIBLY
SAT. MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVERHEAD GENERATING INSTABILITY SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...KEEPING COVERAGE LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO.
BLOCK STARTS BREAKING DOWN/SHIFTING EAST ON SAT WITH 5H RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR SUN AND MON. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES WHICH PREVENTS MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RETURN AND SETS
UP DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN ADDITION TO SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES SAT NEAR CLIMO BUT THEN ABOVE CLIMO SUN AND MON.
WEAKENING OF THE 5H RIDGE AND CONTINUED EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
RIDGE AXIS MON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN AS THE PERIOD
ENDS. DO NOT THINK PRECIP WILL FALL MON DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE VALID TAF CYCLE...AS AN UNSETTLED
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST.
POCKETS OF IFR CIGS IN LOW-BASED STRATUS EXPECTED THROUGH 13Z
TODAY. S WINDS 6-11 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW AFTER DAYBREAK
WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 21 KTS. SCATTERED TSTMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SURFACE WIND
GUSTS ABOVE 40-50 KT IN +TSRA.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SCT 4SM SHRA
THU AND FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THE EARLY MORNING UPDATES.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT FOR ALL THE WATERS. SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4 TO 5 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS INCREASING. THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE WELL MIXED
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS
LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL STAY SW THROUGH TUESDAY AND ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ADVISORIES TO BE POSTED...CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT FURTHER EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS. IT IS LIKELY THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE WATERS ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING LATE THU AND THU NIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. PINCHED GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION AS HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WILL PUSH WIND SPEEDS
CLOSE TO 20 KT LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. GRADIENT STARTS TO SLOWLY
RELAX FRI WITH WINDS DROPPING FROM 15 TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING TO
10 TO 15 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS 10 TO 15 KT
INTO SAT BEFORE DROPPING CLOSER TO 10 KT LATE SAT AFTERNOON. SEAS
PEAK THU NIGHT...RUNNING 3 TO 5 FT DUE TO THE STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW. SEAS START TO SUBSIDE ON FRI...DROPPING TO 2 TO 4 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH 2 FT OR LESS EXPECTED BY SAT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...COLBY
NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL/MJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
948 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
ONCE AGAIN...NO REAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. CUMULUS
QUICKLY DWINDLED ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ITS STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEGAN TO DECOUPLE FROM THE SURFACE...LEAVING A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AS OF MID EVENING. TEMPERATURE TRENDS OVERNIGHT MAY BE
A BIT OF A CHALLENGE IN LOCALIZED AREAS LIKE MINOT...WHERE HIGHS
TODAY WERE WARMER AND THE SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND TRAJECTORY THAT
AIDED TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY ALSO HOLD THEM UP TONIGHT...BUT THE
GOING FORECAST IS A REASONABLE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. LATE AFTERNOON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND...MAINLY AROUND DICKINSON AND IN
THE BOTTINEAU AREA AS OF 0005 UTC. HOWEVER...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF NOTE TO THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN TEMPERATURE-
DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40-50 F AT THE SURFACE. THAT IS IN CONTRAST TO
RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS...WHICH APPEAR MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
SIMULATING SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE HAVE STAYED
THE COURSE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH READINGS
IN THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE EDGING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL FURTHER AID IN PRODUCING VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.
A VERY DRY AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY YIELD
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT.
THESE VERY DRY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE MAIN ISSUE IN REACHING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. RECENT MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THE DRY TREND FOR NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN IF A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS DO FORM...A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIKELY EVAPORATE
ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND.
THIS WEEKEND...A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS SETUP IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED EARLY LAST
WEEK. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH...AT LEAST FOR EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK.
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE LOW BY MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS IT CLOSING OFF OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND DEPICTS
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE.
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY
FLOW...TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY OVER CENTRAL ND /INCLUDING AT KBIS AND
KMOT/ LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KT AT 1500 FT AGL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
705 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. LATE AFTERNOON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND...MAINLY AROUND DICKINSON AND IN
THE BOTTINEAU AREA AS OF 0005 UTC. HOWEVER...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF NOTE TO THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN TEMPERATURE-
DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40-50 F AT THE SURFACE. THAT IS IN CONTRAST TO
RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS...WHICH APPEAR MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
SIMULATING SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE HAVE STAYED
THE COURSE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH READINGS
IN THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE EDGING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL FURTHER AID IN PRODUCING VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.
A VERY DRY AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY YIELD
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT.
THESE VERY DRY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE MAIN ISSUE IN REACHING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. RECENT MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THE DRY TREND FOR NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN IF A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS DO FORM...A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIKELY EVAPORATE
ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND.
THIS WEEKEND...A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS SETUP IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED EARLY LAST
WEEK. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH...AT LEAST FOR EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK.
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE LOW BY MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS IT CLOSING OFF OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND DEPICTS
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE.
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY
FLOW...TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY OVER CENTRAL ND /INCLUDING AT KBIS AND
KMOT/ LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KT AT 1500 FT AGL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1015 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WARM FRONT SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...COLD FRONT NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AS OF
02Z...GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO UPDATED HOURLY TREND INTO TONIGHT BUT LOWS
STILL LOOK PRETTY GOOD. HRRR CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DECENT POP
GUIDANCE. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE OVERNIGHT...BUT IN REALITY SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF DRY
BEFORE THE WRAP-AROUND ARRIVES WITH THE UPPER LOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS PRETTY MUCH ON THE SAME PAGE NOW
WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT...SLOWLY
SWEEPING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
STALL LATER TONIGHT ON THE LEE SLOPE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY TURNS SEWD THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA
THURSDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO POP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL WITH THE
ANOMALOUSLY LOW FREEZING LEVEL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS.
A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL HAIL AGAIN
POSSIBLE. CAT POPS WITH THIS PRECIP BAND. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
COMING MORE IN LINE...SPECIFIC TIMING WILL STILL BE WITH THE SLOWER
END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. USED THE NAM TO TRY TO INCORPORATE SOME
OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION DETAILS. BUT ONCE WE LOSE THE HEATING...THE
LACK OF SYNOPTIC INSTABILITY HAS THUNDER POTENTIAL RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST.
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW SUGGESTS A DRY SLOT WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE PRECIP WITH THE HANGING FRONT AND
WRAPAROUND SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE UPPER LOW INCREASING OVER THAT
AREA. SO...WILL DECREASE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT...BUT KEEP CAT POPS IN THE EAST. FOR THURSDAY...THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WORKING
WESTWARD IN THE WRAPAROUND FLOW OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT WITH
SOUTHEAST OHIO TRENDING TO IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPS ARE VERY MARGINAL FOR
ANY SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY MORNING...SO WILL OMIT SNOW THERE. WHILE PW`S ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...THE WEAK FLOW AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF SHOWERS AROUND
THE UPPER LOW LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY GIVE SOME CONCERN FOR WATER
PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION FOR THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT UNTIL THE SPECIFIC SETUP OF PRECIP BANDS BECOMES CLEARER.
TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY STAYING AWAY FROM THE NAM TO END THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE SHORT
TERM...WITHOUT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS EVOLUTION FROM PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. WARM FRONT IS QUICK TO FOLLOW THE EXIT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...AND WILL BRING IN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE. 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOW A TIGHTLY PACKED GRADIENT WITH THIS
WARM FRONT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A QUICK BURST OF WARMING IN THE
LATER AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVES IN
WITH THE COLD FRONT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
GOING CONSERVATIVE WITH THE QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS SHOULD
BECOME MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE EXITING OF THE
LOW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL ONLY HAVE MODEST AMOUNTS ON THE FRONT
END OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
NO SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE EXTENDED...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE BEGINNING WITH
THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BARELY CLEAR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES OF THE CWA...AND THEN LIFT BACK AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. IN THE END...WILL NOT SEE ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
OF AIRMASS...WITH FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE ACCUMULATION OF RAIN
THROUGH THE 7 DAY PERIOD...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...WATER CONCERNS ARE
RELATIVELY LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY MESSY AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE TAF PERIOD... WITH COLD FRONT
CROSSING THIS EVENING AND THEN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MEANDERING
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WILL LIKELY NEVER FULLY CLEAR THE
COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS BEFORE WRAPAROUND SHOWERS BEGIN...SO HAVE
PRECIP THROUGH...HOWEVER VISIBILITIES ARE NOT ALL THAT LOW. COULD
GET A BRIEF DROP INTO LOWER MVFR OR EVEN IFR...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THAT TO BE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCE OF SOME LOWER
VISIBILITIES TOMORROW. DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER CONSIDERABLY
TONIGHT...WITH IFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES BY MORNING. FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN THE CEILINGS WILL LIFT BACK TO MVFR. USED A
BLEND OF LAMP GUIDANCE AND NAM SOUNDINGS TO DRAW CLOUD HEIGHTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF WRAPAROUND IFR CONDITIONS MAY
VARY.
THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON
THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALSO VARY AS MODELS STILL DIFFER.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING IFR CONDITIONS AND CONTAIN SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 05/05/16
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M L
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
738 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WARM FRONT SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE... HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
CURRENT SHOWERS...SO BLENDED THAT INTO PREVIOUS POP
FORECAST...WHICH DID NOT RESULT IN ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT TIMING
CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS PRETTY MUCH ON THE SAME PAGE NOW
WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT...SLOWLY
SWEEPING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
STALL LATER TONIGHT ON THE LEE SLOPE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY TURNS SEWD THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA
THURSDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO POP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL WITH THE
ANOMALOUSLY LOW FREEZING LEVEL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS.
A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL HAIL AGAIN
POSSIBLE. CAT POPS WITH THIS PRECIP BAND. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
COMING MORE IN LINE...SPECIFIC TIMING WILL STILL BE WITH THE SLOWER
END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. USED THE NAM TO TRY TO INCORPORATE SOME
OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION DETAILS. BUT ONCE WE LOSE THE HEATING...THE
LACK OF SYNOPTIC INSTABILITY HAS THUNDER POTENTIAL RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST.
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW SUGGESTS A DRY SLOT WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE PRECIP WITH THE HANGING FRONT AND
WRAPAROUND SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE UPPER LOW INCREASING OVER THAT
AREA. SO...WILL DECREASE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT...BUT KEEP CAT POPS IN THE EAST. FOR THURSDAY...THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WORKING
WESTWARD IN THE WRAPAROUND FLOW OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT WITH
SOUTHEAST OHIO TRENDING TO IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPS ARE VERY MARGINAL FOR
ANY SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY MORNING...SO WILL OMIT SNOW THERE. WHILE PW`S ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...THE WEAK FLOW AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF SHOWERS AROUND
THE UPPER LOW LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY GIVE SOME CONCERN FOR WATER
PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION FOR THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT UNTIL THE SPECIFIC SETUP OF PRECIP BANDS BECOMES CLEARER.
TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY STAYING AWAY FROM THE NAM TO END THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE SHORT
TERM...WITHOUT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS EVOLUTION FROM PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. WARM FRONT IS QUICK TO FOLLOW THE EXIT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...AND WILL BRING IN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE. 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOW A TIGHTLY PACKED GRADIENT WITH THIS
WARM FRONT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A QUICK BURST OF WARMING IN THE
LATER AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVES IN
WITH THE COLD FRONT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
GOING CONSERVATIVE WITH THE QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS SHOULD
BECOME MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE EXITING OF THE
LOW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL ONLY HAVE MODEST AMOUNTS ON THE FRONT
END OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
NO SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE EXTENDED...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE BEGINNING WITH
THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BARELY CLEAR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES OF THE CWA...AND THEN LIFT BACK AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. IN THE END...WILL NOT SEE ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
OF AIRMASS...WITH FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE ACCUMULATION OF RAIN
THROUGH THE 7 DAY PERIOD...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...WATER CONCERNS ARE
RELATIVELY LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY MESSY AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE TAF PERIOD... WITH COLD FRONT
CROSSING THIS EVENING AND THEN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MEANDERING
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WILL LIKELY NEVER FULLY CLEAR THE
COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS BEFORE WRAPAROUND SHOWERS BEGIN...SO HAVE
PRECIP THROUGH...HOWEVER VISIBILITIES ARE NOT ALL THAT LOW. COULD
GET A BRIEF DROP INTO LOWER MVFR OR EVEN IFR...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THAT TO BE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCE OF SOME LOWER
VISIBILITIES TOMORROW. DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER CONSIDERABLY
TONIGHT...WITH IFR EXPECTED ALL ALL TAF SITES BY MORNING. FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN THE CEILINGS WILL LIFT BACK TO MVFR. USED A
BLEND OF LAMP GUIDANCE AND NAM SOUNDINGS TO DRAW CLOUD HEIGHTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF WRAPAROUND IFR CONDITIONS MAY
VARY.
THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON
THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALSO VARY AS MODELS STILL DIFFER.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING IFR CONDITIONS AND CONTAIN SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M L L
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PENDLETON OR
951 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE
TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER IN A FEW OF OUR ZONES THIS MORNING AND TO
INCREASE POPS AN ADDITIONAL 5-10 PCT FOR AREAS NEAR THE CASCADE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN HAS
SET UP FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE U.S. AN ELONGATED
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD...AND THE UPPER FLOW HAS
BACKED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADE RANGE AND AS FAR EAST
AS BICKLETON...CONDON AND PAULINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR LOOKS
REASONABLE SHOWING SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND 1400 AND INCREASING
IN COVERAGE BY 1800. SURFACE-BASED CAPES ARE AROUND 300 J/KG AND
LI`S BETWEEN 0 TO -2...SO THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE BULK WIND SHEAR IS MINIMAL TODAY...SO
HAVING A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT LIKELY
TO HAPPEN.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE YAKIMA
VALLEY. WISTER
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY WEST. THERE WILL BE
SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS NEAR KRDM...KBDN... KDLS...AND KYKM AFTER 21Z
WITH A FEW SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDS WILL BE 5-15KT AND A LITTLE
GUSTY AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 76
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
SHORT TERM...AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COOLER AIR WILL
INTRUDE. STILL...THERE WILL BE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SPUN UP
OVER THE AREA FOR ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS WELL AS
INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVEN CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THERE MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH
MODERATE 500-300MB LAPSE RATES. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS BUT FOR
NOW JUST CONTINUING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BY THURSDAY THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS. 500MB DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COULD ALSO AID IN
AIR ACCELERATING UPWARD. SO FOR THIS AREA...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
BY A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEY WILL STILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEBER
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE FROM CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THURSDAY EVENING
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. JUST THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A SHOWER OR STORM ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK DRY AS NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF WINDY PERIODS. THE FIRST WILL BE
FRIDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY N-NELY WINDS AND THE SECOND SUNDAY EVENING
IN THE CASCADE GAPS WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING PEAKING SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S COLUMBIA BASIN
THEN COOLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO MID 70S TO LOWER 80S LOWER
ELEVATIONS. 78
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 86 51 77 51 / 0 10 20 50
ALW 86 54 80 53 / 0 10 20 50
PSC 87 55 82 56 / 0 10 20 40
YKM 84 54 81 51 / 10 30 30 30
HRI 86 54 79 53 / 0 10 20 40
ELN 82 52 78 49 / 10 30 30 40
RDM 75 45 69 43 / 30 50 60 60
LGD 80 47 79 48 / 0 10 30 40
GCD 79 46 77 47 / 10 10 50 60
DLS 82 55 76 52 / 20 40 30 40
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
85/76
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
849 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE
TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER IN A FEW OF OUR ZONES THIS MORNING AND TO
INCREASE POPS AN ADDITIONAL 5-10 PCT FOR AREAS NEAR THE CASCADE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN HAS
SET UP FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE U.S. AN ELONGATED
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD...AND THE UPPER FLOW HAS
BACKED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADE RANGE AND AS FAR EAST
AS BICKLETON...CONDON AND PAULINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR LOOKS
REASONABLE SHOWING SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND 1400 AND INCREASING
IN COVERAGE BY 1800. SURFACE-BASED CAPES ARE AROUND 300 J/KG AND
LI`S BETWEEN 0 TO -2...SO THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE BULK WIND SHEAR IS MINIMAL TODAY...SO
HAVING A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT LIKELY
TO HAPPEN.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE YAKIMA
VALLEY. WISTER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
SHORT TERM...AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COOLER AIR WILL
INTRUDE. STILL...THERE WILL BE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SPUN UP
OVER THE AREA FOR ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS WELL AS
INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVEN CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THERE MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH
MODERATE 500-300MB LAPSE RATES. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS BUT FOR
NOW JUST CONTINUING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BY THURSDAY THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS. 500MB DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COULD ALSO AID IN
AIR ACCELERATING UPWARD. SO FOR THIS AREA...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
BY A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEY WILL STILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEBER
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE FROM CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THURSDAY EVENING
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. JUST THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A SHOWER OR STORM ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK DRY AS NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF WINDY PERIODS. THE FIRST WILL BE
FRIDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY N-NELY WINDS AND THE SECOND SUNDAY EVENING
IN THE CASCADE GAPS WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING PEAKING SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S COLUMBIA BASIN
THEN COOLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO MID 70S TO LOWER 80S LOWER
ELEVATIONS. 78
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME MID CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS NEAR KRDM...KBDN...
KDLS...AND KYKM AFTER 21Z WITH A FEW SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. FOR
THIS SET OF TAFS DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING IN TSRA. WILL LET THE
POTENTIAL BE FINE TUNED IN LATER FORECASTS. WINDS WILL BE 5-15KT AND
A LITTLE GUSTY AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 78
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 86 51 77 51 / 0 10 20 50
ALW 86 54 80 53 / 0 10 20 50
PSC 87 55 82 56 / 0 10 20 40
YKM 84 54 81 51 / 10 30 30 30
HRI 86 54 79 53 / 0 10 20 40
ELN 82 52 78 49 / 10 30 30 40
RDM 75 45 69 43 / 30 50 60 60
LGD 80 47 79 48 / 0 10 30 40
GCD 79 46 77 47 / 10 10 50 60
DLS 82 55 76 52 / 20 40 30 40
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
85/76
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1121 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
LATE EVENING RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES EARLIER BROKEN LINE OF
PERSISTENT SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO NORTHEAST
PA HAS DISSIPATED...WHILE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED IN
DEFORMATION FROM CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE MD/WV PANHANDLES WNW INTO
WEST CENTRAL PA. THE HRRR TAKES THIS LINE AND TRACKS IT EASTWARD
WHILE DAMPENING IT OVERNIGHT OVER THE LAURELS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SHRA AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE.
THIS IS CLOSE TO THE SCENARIO PAINTED BY THE DAY SHIFT AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN POPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER WAS NEEDED THIS EVENING.
TOUCHED UP POPS OVER SOUTHEAST PA WHICH HAD THE EASTERN EXTENT OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL SLIGHTLY TOO FAR EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATEST PCPN RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTING NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR
SENSIBLE WX ELEMENTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H5 LOW REACHING ITS FURTHEST SOUTHERN
EXTEND THU NIGHT OVER NC WILL THEN LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI INTO SAT. BIGGEST CHANGE IS SHARPENING OF
PRECIP FIELD FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...WITH 24-HOUR QPF POTENTIAL
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT OF AROUND 1.00 INCH. WPC HAS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2. UPPED POPS
AND QPF AMOUNTS NOTICEABLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PROBABILITY.
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AFTER A WARMER AND MAINLY DRY DAY ON
SAT...THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR ANOTHER RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-
MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT AGAIN...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE WORK WEEK AHEAD
OF NEXT RAIN CHANCES MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS...MVFR CONDITIONS...HAVE SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTH AND
WEST WITH ALL TERMINALS SUB VFR EXCEPT BRADFORD.
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT BRINGING
WITH MOST TERMINALS GOING IFR BY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1049 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
LATE EVENING RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES EARLIER BROKEN LINE OF
PERSISTEN SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO NORTHEAST PA
HAS DISSIPATED...WHILE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED IN
DEFORMATION FROM CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE MD/WV PANHANDLES WNW INTO
WEST CENTRAL PA. THE HRRR TAKES THIS LINE AND TRACKS IT EASTWARD
WHILE DAMPENING IT OVERNIGHT OVER THE LAURELS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SHRA AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE.
THIS IS CLOSE TO THE SCENARIO PAINTED BY THE DAY SHIFT AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN POPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER WAS NEEDED THIS EVENING.
TOUCHED UP POPS OVER SOUTHEAST PA WHICH HAD THE EASTERN EXTENT OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL SLIGHTLY TOO FAR EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATEST PCPN RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTING NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR
SENSIBLE WX ELEMENTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H5 LOW REACHING ITS FURTHEST SOUTHERN
EXTEND THU NIGHT OVER NC WILL THEN LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI INTO SAT. BIGGEST CHANGE IS SHARPENING OF
PRECIP FIELD FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...WITH 24-HOUR QPF POTENTIAL
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT OF AROUND 1.00 INCH. WPC HAS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2. UPPED POPS
AND QPF AMOUNTS NOTICEABLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PROBABILITY.
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AFTER A WARMER AND MAINLY DRY DAY ON
SAT...THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR ANOTHER RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-
MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT AGAIN...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE WORK WEEK AHEAD
OF NEXT RAIN CHANCES MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN BAND OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM NEAR HAGERSTOWN
NORTH TO WELLSBORO. LOCALLY IFR UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF THESE
SHOWERS.
MORE EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS...MVFR...OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY CLOSEST TO THE ONSHORE MARITIME FLOW.
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS THE DEEPER WE GET INTO THE EVENING
AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
657 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LINGER AROUND
THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM ARE ROAMING THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE IT`S MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS RANGE FROM COOLISH (AROUND
50F) UP NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S AND A BIT MUGGY FAR SOUTH.
UPPER SHEAR AXIS SLOWLY SWINGING INTO THE EASTERN GLAKS AND
WESTERN PA WILL KEEP SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS GOING OVERNIGHT BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. HRRR KEEPS MOST NUMEROUS
AND PERSISTENT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS IN EXCESS OF 0.8"...AND DEEPER MARINE FLOW
PERSISTS. LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AND EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DZ CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER OH VLY AND
KEEP IT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS ON WED REFLECT THE
NORMAL OUTCOME OF AN UPPER LOW OVER OH/WV. SCT SHRA...WITH THE
HIGHER /LOW LIKELY/ POPS SLIDE FROM E-W AS THE MORE DRIZZLY STUFF
IS JOINED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WRN MTNS. MAXES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5-10F UNDER NORMALS DUE TO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR A LARGE TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S.
TO BECOME DOMINATED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND CURLING EASTWARD TO BE LOCATED OVER E NORTH
CAROLINA BY THU EVE AND DELMARVA ON FRI. SHOWERY PATTERN IN STORE
FOR SURE OVER THIS PERIOD...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ON THU LOCATED
OVER W PA /CLOSER TO UPPER LOW/ WITH PRECIP SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
FRI AS IT CONSOLIDATES NEAR SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A MODEST SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SEWD LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY UNWINDS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
BRINGING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR SUN/MON BEFORE WHAT LOOKS LIKE
COULD BE A PRETTY DECENT WARMUP AS RIDGING FINALLY ARRIVES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS WHILE VFR WITH OCNL MVFR
IS THE RULE OVER THE WEST AND NORTH.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND BRINGS AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR FROM LATE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BUT MOST OF THE FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED RAIN/DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME FOG OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1140 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DEEPER MOISTURE HAS EXITED OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL RESIDES UPSTREAM. THIS
WILL ACT TO PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF PVA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO REDEVELOP THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST OF I-65 AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...MODEL MRH TRENDS DECREASE
THROUGH 12Z. CURRENTLY...ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOL LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE INDICATED ON RADAR. FOR THE FCST...WILL OPT TO KEEP
THE FCST AS IS FOR THE MOST PART. ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO REMOVE
TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH...AND REMOVE LIKELY POPS FROM
THE EASTERN PLATEAU. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUR PLATEAU
TOWARD 12Z BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM ITS INCLUSION AT THIS TIME AS IT
LOOKS RATHER BORDERLINE FOR VSBYS AOB 1SM. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW STALLED SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA AND ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS IN PLACE. LOW CLOUDINESS TO REMAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
REMAIN UPSTREAM. CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO JUST ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE. VSBYS COULD DROP AS LOW AS 1SM BY 12Z NEAR CSV.
ELSEWHERE...VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN AOA 3SM.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........21
LONG TERM..................07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
939 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND LINGER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAINFALL AND QUITE CHILLY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AS WARMER TEMPERATURES WORK INTO THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING. DID NOTICE THUNDER BEING REPORTED IN
THE CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA BUT HAVE NOT SEEN ANY REPORTS OF THUNDER
IN OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT. BOTH THE NCEP WRF AND THE
HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIP THIS EVENING AND
BOTH PIVOT A NARROW AREA OF WEAK PRECIP THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA
BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP THURSDAY STILL
APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I64...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE
WITH QPF AMOUNTS.
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
DIURNAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH COOL AIR ALOFT HAVE KEPT WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND NORTH OF ROUTE 460 IN VIRGINIA. THUNDER HAS BEEN
QUITE LIMITED WITH ONLY AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING FLASH NOTED ACROSS
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY VA. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEING
DRIVEN BY AN UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING A COHESIVE BAND OF SHOWERS TO OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY EARLY
THIS EVENING.
AS THE SHOWERS PROGRESSIVELY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT A
SURFACE LOW SILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH A
DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW. THIS IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME HEAVY PRECIPITATION
TO FALL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CUMULATIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2 IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR IN VIRGINIA
FROM NORTHERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY THROUGH APPOMATTOX AND BUCKINGHAM
TO AMHERST. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE RAIN
WILL SET UP AND HOW HEAVY IT WILL BE SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
WATCHES UNTIL THE SITUATION COMES INTO SHARPER FOCUS OVER THE NEXT
FEW MODEL RUNS. PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE WILL BE LESS PRONOUNCED
WITH AMOUNTS TAILING OFF TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
WITH THE POOL OF COLD AIR ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER CLOSED LOW LAPSE
RATES WILL BE STEEP SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY BE PRESENT BUT
WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GIRDS FOR NOW SINCE EXPECT IT WILL BE
LOCALIZED AND EPHEMERAL. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE WET SNOW
POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA BUT JUST SOME WET FLAKES WITH NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. NEEDLESS TO SAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S WEST OF THE RIDGE AND ONLY REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH INTO OUR REGION AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...COOL...CLOUDY...AND
DAMP CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 0.15 TO AROUND AN HALF INCH. LOCALLY AMOUNTS AROUND
INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE BEST
INSTABILITY WITH LIS AND CAPE IS TO OUR EAST. THE COLDEST NIGHT
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER
40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST FRIDAY. BEHIND THIS LOW...COLD
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ENSUE COURTESY OF A DECENT NORTHWEST WIND WHICH
MAY GUST UP TO 30 MPH ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 50 IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE. RAIN AMOUNTS
FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE AROUND A TENTH TO ABOUT 0.75 INCH. THE 3
HOUR FFG WAS AROUND 1.1 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 3 INCHES IN
THE PIEDMONT. ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON STORM
TRAINING...RAINFALL RATE AND LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM LOWER 40S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 50
DEGREES IN THE EAST.
THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BREAKING DOWN THE OMEGA
BLOCK PATTERN ON SATURDAY. IT WILL BE A WARMER AFTERNOON SATURDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
70S IN THE PIEDMONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAS COME IN WETTER
WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 0.5 INCH. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S IN IN THE WEST TO MID
50S IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DRIFTS EAST IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AS FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY EVOLVES INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.
A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL DROP SOUTH SUNDAY INTO OUR AREA
AND STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING AS A
WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING OR
AMOUNTS ATTM. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 77 EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY...OUR AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH AND COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST IN
THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY...THEN
MODERATE INTO MIDWEEK. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOL DOWN IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WISCONSIN AND CLOSE OFF.
THIS LOW WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THEN ROTATE
NORTHEAST INTO MARYLAND. SYNOPTIC MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE. SHOWERS WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR ARRIVAL TIME OF THE SHOWERS IN
THE HI-RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY THUNDER. HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR STARTING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA ON
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AT KBLF...KLWB...AND
KLYH WILL WILL HELP SUPPORT LOWER CEILINGS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY. MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. SOME
VFR IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE BETTER ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE REACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORE SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A SEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY APPROACH
LOW MAXIMUM RECORDS. BELOW ARE THE CURRENT RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 5TH.
THURSDAY 05/05/2016
SITE LOMAX YEAR
KBLF 50 1988
KDAN 51 1994
KLYH 51 1908
KROA 52 1917
KRNK 48 1994
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...CF/MBS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JR
CLIMATE...CF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
807 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND LINGER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAINFALL AND QUITE CHILLY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AS WARMER TEMPERATURES WORK INTO THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
DIURNAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH COOL AIR ALOFT HAVE KEPT WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND NORTH OF ROUTE 460 IN VIRGINIA. THUNDER HAS BEEN
QUITE LIMITED WITH ONLY AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING FLASH NOTED ACROSS
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY VA. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEING
DRIVEN BY AN UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING A COHESIVE BAND OF SHOWERS TO OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY EARLY
THIS EVENING.
AS THE SHOWERS PROGRESSIVELY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT A
SURFACE LOW SILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH A
DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW. THIS IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME HEAVY PRECIPITATION
TO FALL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CUMULATIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2 IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR IN VIRGINIA
FROM NORTHERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY THROUGH APPOMATTOX AND BUCKINGHAM
TO AMHERST. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE RAIN
WILL SET UP AND HOW HEAVY IT WILL BE SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
WATCHES UNTIL THE SITUATION COMES INTO SHARPER FOCUS OVER THE NEXT
FEW MODEL RUNS. PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE WILL BE LESS PRONOUNCED
WITH AMOUNTS TAILING OFF TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
WITH THE POOL OF COLD AIR ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER CLOSED LOW LAPSE
RATES WILL BE STEEP SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY BE PRESENT BUT
WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GIRDS FOR NOW SINCE EXPECT IT WILL BE
LOCALIZED AND EPHEMERAL. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE WET SNOW
POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA BUT JUST SOME WET FLAKES WITH NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. NEEDLESS TO SAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S WEST OF THE RIDGE AND ONLY REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH INTO OUR REGION AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...COOL...CLOUDY...AND
DAMP CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 0.15 TO AROUND AN HALF INCH. LOCALLY AMOUNTS AROUND
INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE BEST
INSTABILITY WITH LIS AND CAPE IS TO OUR EAST. THE COLDEST NIGHT
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER
40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST FRIDAY. BEHIND THIS LOW...COLD
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ENSUE COURTESY OF A DECENT NORTHWEST WIND WHICH
MAY GUST UP TO 30 MPH ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 50 IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE. RAIN AMOUNTS
FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE AROUND A TENTH TO ABOUT 0.75 INCH. THE 3
HOUR FFG WAS AROUND 1.1 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 3 INCHES IN
THE PIEDMONT. ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON STORM
TRAINING...RAINFALL RATE AND LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM LOWER 40S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 50
DEGREES IN THE EAST.
THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BREAKING DOWN THE OMEGA
BLOCK PATTERN ON SATURDAY. IT WILL BE A WARMER AFTERNOON SATURDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
70S IN THE PIEDMONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAS COME IN WETTER
WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 0.5 INCH. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S IN IN THE WEST TO MID
50S IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DRIFTS EAST IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AS FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY EVOLVES INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.
A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL DROP SOUTH SUNDAY INTO OUR AREA
AND STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING AS A
WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING OR
AMOUNTS ATTM. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 77 EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY...OUR AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH AND COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST IN
THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY...THEN
MODERATE INTO MIDWEEK. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOL DOWN IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WISCONSIN AND CLOSE OFF.
THIS LOW WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THEN ROTATE
NORTHEAST INTO MARYLAND. SYNOPTIC MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENTWITH
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE. SHOWERS WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR ARRIVAL TIME OF THE SHOWERS IN
THE HI-RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY THUNDER. HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR STARTING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA ON
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AT KBLF...KLWB...AND
KLYH WILL WILL HELP SUPPORT LOWER CEILINGS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY. MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. SOME
VFR IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE BETTER ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE REACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORE SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. WITH LIMITED CAPE...VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION
WAS FOUND ALONG THIS COLD FRONT. THE MESO MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE THEN LOCATED NEAR
INTERSTATE 90 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BE EXITING NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING. WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 40S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE
0-1 KM MEAN LAYER CAPES REMAIN CLOSE TO 500 J/KG. LIKE THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...MUCH OF THE SHEAR REMAINS IN THE 0-3 KM RANGE AND
THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
PRIMARILY LINEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN
INVERTED V IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER...THERE WILL GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THERE WILL BE DEEP DIURNAL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. THE RAP /WHICH SOMETIME HAS ISSUES WITH MIXING TOO DEEP/
HAS THE WIND GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND NAM...ONLY
HAVE THE WIND GUSTS REACHING 35 MPH IN THESE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 03.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED
FROST.
ON FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND DEEP MIXING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S. THIS WAS 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL BLEND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS DAY. HOWEVER THEY DID FIT IN WELL WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS
AND ECMWF GRIDS.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SURFACE AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ARE ONLY IN THE THE
500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH BOTH
THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KNOTS...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO DEVELOP.
FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE 03.00Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
TREND DRY. THE GFS AND GEM EVEN KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE PRECIPITATION RETURNING ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW TREND...STAYED WITH WITH
CONSOLIDATED MODEL GRIDS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE STILL SET TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TIGHTER
GRADIENT/DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE WEST/
NORTHWEST WINDS 13-18KT G25-30KTS DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. FRONT AND LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
BAND OF SHRA/SCT TSRA AS IT THEY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
ROUGHLY 21Z-02Z TIME-FRAME. TIMING ESTIMATE REMAINS 23-01Z THRU KRST
AND 00-02Z THRU KLSE. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA...GOOD VFR EXPECTED
THRU THIS TAF PERIOD...AND MOVED SHRA AND ANY POTENTIAL CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THEM TO A TEMPO MENTION AS THE FRONT PASSES.
ANY SHRA/TSRA LOOKING TO ONLY IMPACT THE KRST/KLSE AIRFIELDS FOR
1/2HR OR LESS. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT/
EARLY WED MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING BY LATE
WED MORNING TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF AND SOME GUSTINESS OF THE
NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 04.15Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. THE LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE THERE
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...THE RAIN
WILL LIKELY NOT BE WIDESPREAD. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.25 INCH. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE WIND WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AND WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 10 MPH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....BOYNE
LONG TERM......BOYNE
AVIATION.......RRS
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
630 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. WITH LIMITED CAPE...VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION
WAS FOUND ALONG THIS COLD FRONT. THE MESO MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE THEN LOCATED NEAR
INTERSTATE 90 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BE EXITING NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING. WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 40S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE
0-1 KM MEAN LAYER CAPES REMAIN CLOSE TO 500 J/KG. LIKE THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...MUCH OF THE SHEAR REMAINS IN THE 0-3 KM RANGE AND
THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
PRIMARILY LINEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN
INVERTED V IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER...THERE WILL GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THERE WILL BE DEEP DIURNAL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. THE RAP /WHICH SOMETIME HAS ISSUES WITH MIXING TOO DEEP/
HAS THE WIND GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND NAM...ONLY
HAVE THE WIND GUSTS REACHING 35 MPH IN THESE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 03.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED
FROST.
ON FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND DEEP MIXING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S. THIS WAS 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL BLEND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS DAY. HOWEVER THEY DID FIT IN WELL WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS
AND ECMWF GRIDS.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SURFACE AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ARE ONLY IN THE THE
500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH BOTH
THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KNOTS...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO DEVELOP.
FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE 03.00Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
TREND DRY. THE GFS AND GEM EVEN KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE PRECIPITATION RETURNING ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW TREND...STAYED WITH WITH
CONSOLIDATED MODEL GRIDS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING TO GIVE WAY TO SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CUMULUS...BECOMING BROKEN FOR A SHORT TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS TAF AIRFIELDS. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES MENTION IN 12Z TAFS. EITHER WAY...ANY
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 3000 FT AGL. IN ADDITION...NOT
EXPECTING ANY REDUCTION IS VISIBILITY BELOW 6SM WITH SHOWERS.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING AT TIMES INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20 KT RANGE. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS AT
KRST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SHOWERS...BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. THE LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE THERE
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...THE RAIN
WILL LIKELY NOT BE WIDESPREAD. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.25 INCH. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE WIND WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AND WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 10 MPH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
405 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. WITH LIMITED CAPE...VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION
WAS FOUND ALONG THIS COLD FRONT. THE MESO MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE THEN LOCATED NEAR
INTERSTATE 90 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BE EXITING NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING. WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 40S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE
0-1 KM MEAN LAYER CAPES REMAIN CLOSE TO 500 J/KG. LIKE THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...MUCH OF THE SHEAR REMAINS IN THE 0-3 KM RANGE AND
THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
PRIMARILY LINEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN
INVERTED V IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER...THERE WILL GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THERE WILL BE DEEP DIURNAL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. THE RAP /WHICH SOMETIME HAS ISSUES WITH MIXING TOO DEEP/
HAS THE WIND GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND NAM...ONLY
HAVE THE WIND GUSTS REACHING 35 MPH IN THESE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 03.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED
FROST.
ON FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND DEEP MIXING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S. THIS WAS 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL BLEND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS DAY. HOWEVER THEY DID FIT IN WELL WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS
AND ECMWF GRIDS.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SURFACE AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ARE ONLY IN THE THE
500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH BOTH
THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KNOTS...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO DEVELOP.
FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE 03.00Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
TREND DRY. THE GFS AND GEM EVEN KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE PRECIPITATION RETURNING ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW TREND...STAYED WITH WITH
CONSOLIDATED MODEL GRIDS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
SOME LINGERING SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS LATE EVENING AT KLSE...OTHERWISE
GENERALLY EXPECT SKC-SCT CONDITIONS FOR KRST/KLSE INTO TUE
AFTERNOON. MID/HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE LATE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. LIKELY SEE SOME
SCT -SHRA/ISOLD TS MOVING IN TOWARD 00Z WED. BETTER CHANCES BETWEEN
00-05Z TUE EVENING. HAVE ADDED -SHRA MENTION FOR NOW. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD TS THREAT AT THIS TIME...BUT A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW
EARLY TUE EVENING IS POSSIBLE.
LIGHT WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE SAGGY PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS TIGHTENS TUE MORNING...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINTING
TO MIXING AND WIND GUSTS INTO THE MID 20 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 00Z...PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR...WILL SWING WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH TUE EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. THE LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE THERE
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...THE RAIN
WILL LIKELY NOT BE WIDESPREAD. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.25 INCH. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE WIND WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AND WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 10 MPH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
516 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN MEANDERS AND
WEAKENS AROUND THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT ACROSS OUR
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OTHERWISE A GENERALLY
RAINFREE DAY. HRRR IS FIRING UP SOME SHOWERS MIDDAY VCNTY DE BAY
AND THEN SE PA AND SNJ THIS AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG ON IF
THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN. TEMPS NEARLY STEADY THROUGH SUNRISE THEN
ONLY SMALL RISES DURING THE DAY WITH COLD AIR UNDERRUNNING NORTHEAST
WIND ADVECTION FROM THE RESERVOIR OF COOLER WET BULBS OVER NEW
ENGLAND. MAX TEMPS MAYBE 15 BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND 20
TO 25 MPH DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.
FCST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM MOS. POPS...USED THE
HRRR TO KEEP THE MORNING-MIDDAY DRY (EXCEPTING SPOTTY DRIZZLE S
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA). CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON ALL
EXCEPT WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MIDDAY-THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
APPEARS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN INSTABILITY BURST WILL BE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
NEAR DELAWARE. THUNDER POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY NEAR DELAWARE.
SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WHERE THEY DO OCCUR THOUGH PWAT ONLY
INCREASES TO NEAR 1 INCH. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 MPH. POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED 15 PCT IN LATER FORECAST FOR
LATE TONIGHT.
330 AM FORECAST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS WITH THE POPS MODIFIED BY THE SREF PROBS. WPC QPF 00Z/5 QPF
GRIDS USED.
AM AWARE WAS MUCH TOO HIGH ON POPS YDY DURING THE DAY KTTN SOUTHWEST
THROUGH PHL/ILG/ESN AND MISSED THE THUNDER COASTAL NJ/DE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CONTINUATION OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
FRIDAY, THEN THIS BREAKS DOWN DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS
CHANGE OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY, KICKING OUT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK. THIS INCOMING TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE THEN
ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT ALSO MOVING
THROUGH. THERE COULD BE SOME TRICKINESS THOUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS
INCOMING ENERGY SHEARS EASTWARD ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS OUR
AREA GETS INTO THE TRUE WARM SECTOR NEXT WEEK HOWEVER IT MAY BE
CLOSE ACROSS THE NORTH STARTING WEDNESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
APPROACH FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH TO
START FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTS NORTH AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
STRONG 500 MB JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW WITH
OUR AREA WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION FOR A TIME FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE
THEN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS,
WAVES OF STRONGER FORCING GENERALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 0.75-1.00 INCHES
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS THE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW ARRIVING. DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, THE PRESENCE OF THE 500 MB
JET STREAK AND A COLD CORE ALOFT /STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS ADDED FOR FRIDAY /PERHAPS SMALL HAIL
OCCURS WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDER/. WE THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THE STEADY RAIN AND TRANSITION TO SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED LOW SETTLES RIGHT OVER US AND THE STRONGER FORCING MAY
SHIFT WEST AND NORTH.
THE CLOSED LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE COLD CORE ALOFT STILL OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY, SOME SHOWERS
SHOULD STILL OCCUR. WE LOOK TO FINALLY LOSE THE ONSHORE FLOW
COMPONENT SATURDAY, THEREFORE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WHICH COULD PROVIDE A LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR SOME LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HELD OFF INTRODUCING A THUNDER MENTION
ATTM.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE DRIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY START TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AND WITH A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT, WE
INCREASED THE POPS TOWARD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS. THE GREATEST CHC
FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA,
THEREFORE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY EARLY ON. WHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, A
WARMER AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING BREEZE.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING FROM THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE DOWNSTREAM WAA. THIS WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH IT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR
NORTH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ENERGY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW MAY SHEAR EASTWARD INTO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THEREFORE THE WARM
FRONT MAY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES,
HOWEVER PLENTY OF WARMTH SHOULD BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT, A MUCH WARMER TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WEATHER. THE PRECIPITATION CHCS
ARE NOT ALL THAT CLEAR ATTM AS IT WILL DEPEND ON POTENTIAL SHEARING
ENERGY RUNNING EASTWARD AS THE WARM FRONTS NORTHWARD PROGRESS
SLOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...CIGS VARIABLE BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FT WITH POCKETS
OF 2MI DRIZZLE. IFR CONDS MAINLY VCNTY KPHL/KILG/KMIV/KACY.
NORTHEAST GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.
AFTER 12Z...CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FT BY
MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY TO VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING
DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD QUIT BY 14Z. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTY
20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT I95 REGION EASTWARD AND LESS THAN 18 KT VCNTY
KRDG AND KABE.
TONIGHT...VFR CIGS TO START BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DEGRADE TO MVFR
OR IFR IN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SOMETIME AFTER 03Z/6. NORTHEAST WIND...
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN
THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF RAIN FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES WITH THIS BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AT NIGHT, THEN A FEW SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY.
SOME SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AS SOME SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT, THEN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY,
BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25 TO 30
KT AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. WILL ADD AN SCA TO LOWER DE BAY IN THE
330 AM FORECAST ISSUANCE WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL OCCUR.
OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY BEFORE MEANDERING AND
DISSIPATING THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL ALLOW
FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATER IN THE DAY.
THE FLOW THEN DECREASES FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT THEN MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD GUST TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SEAS ON OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
INTO SATURDAY, THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS THE
WINDS LESSEN FOR A TIME AND TURN SOUTHERLY SATURDAY. THE SEAS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW 5 FEET SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MAXIMUM WEDNESDAY EVENING TIDES ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS WERE
WITHIN 1 INCH OF THE MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION FLOOD THRESHOLD WITH
SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 1.2 FEET.
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE
AT LEAST 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET FOR BOTH OF TODAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
AND ANOTHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING AT 330 AM. THOSE
VALUES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH
FRIDAY`S NEW MOON WILL RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS AT HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY THIS
THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS MORNINGS ADVISORY ALONG THE DE COAST WILL BE MARGINAL, SIMILAR
TO LAST EVENING. ALONG THE OCEANFRONT THE INCOMING WAVES WILL BE A
FOOT OR 2 HIGHER THAN THOSE OF LAST EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, THE DAY SHIFT MAY BE EXTENDING THE CF ADVISORY TO
THE TIDAL DE RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE COMMODORE BARRY BRIDGE INTO
THE EXTREME UPPER PART OF DE BAY (REEDY POINT LINK) FOR THE LATE
THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO THE ASTRONOMICAL
COMPONENT OF THE TIDES. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT NEED MUCH OF A
POSITIVE SURGE DEPARTURE ESPECIALLY WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
LEADING UP TO THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. AS A RESULT, MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
COAST AND UP DELAWARE BAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 516A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 516A
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 516A
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 516A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...516A
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
133 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
SHOWERS HAVE EXITED TO THE SOUTH WITH A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NEXT WAVE IS DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WILL SPREAD SHOWERS
BACK INTO THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 5 AM. INCREASED POPS
QUITE A BIT AND MAY NEED TO GO FURTHER AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
EXPAND. CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A DAMP MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF JACKSON AND HAZARD. A FEW SHOWERS COULD EVEN IMPACT AREAS
A BIT FARTHER NORTHEAST. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
WITH SOME CLEARING COMING OVER THE AREA. BLACK MOUNTAIN HAS
ALREADY REACHED 36...WITH AREAS IN THE NORTH JUST ABOUT TO DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S. CERTAINLY A CHILLY MORNING OUT THERE. THIS
COLD START...COMBINED WITH THE DAMP AND CLOUDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING DAY MAY KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR SOME OF THE AREA FOR
THE UPCOMING DAY. WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1059 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS. THESE HAVE BECOME MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE OVER THE PAST
HOUR...SO HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS POINT. THE
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
ROTATING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN. THIS MAY BE A BIT ON
THE FAST-SIDE...SO HAVE STUCK WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST TIMING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 40S IN PLACES
ALREADY...WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLOUDS LOOK TO FILL
BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES IN FROM INDIANA...SO AROUND
40 DEGREES STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR A LOW. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME
PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION...SPARKED FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THIS LINE PUT DOWN QUITE A FEW INSTANCES OF PEA-SIZED HAIL AS WELL
AS SOME GUSTY WINDS AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY. EXPECT THE WEAKENING
TREND TO CONTINUE AS LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WILL
HANG ONTO ISOLATED THUNDER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE LIKELY
ELIMINATING IT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KY...OH AND INDIANA. THERE HAS
NOT BEEN ANY LIGHTNING SO FAR WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM MOREHEAD TO SOMERSET. HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS SHOWING
UP WITH SOME OF THE STORMS FURTHER WEST NEAR AND ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL FEEL A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THUNDER
POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MI INTO KY. THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING SE OF KY ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE COLD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER FOR THURSDAY IN AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
COOL START AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BUT WE QUICKLY WARM UP
BY SATURDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY RIDE SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP THIS CHANCE SHOWERS GIVEN THE SETUP.
BY SATURDAY RETURN FLOW TAKES OVER AND WE SEE WARMER TEMPS SURGE
INTO THE UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE DO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE
FAR NORTH AND EAST. THEN THE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS...AS
A FRONT DIVES SOUTH AND MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE INITIAL SHOT WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS SOUTH AND SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL
SETUP. THEN THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AND EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH...AS
A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY WHERE WE LOOK TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER. THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EAST WITH SEVERAL WAVES RIDING INTO THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE PRESENTLY...WE WILL SEE CIGS
START TO COME DOWN TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AS A UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. LAMP GUIDANCE HAS
MAINLY JUST MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL GO THIS
ROUTE IN THE TAFS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
WAVE WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND CIGS AGAIN DROPPING BACK TO
MVFR. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
435 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AND MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW
REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STEADY RAIN WILL END TODAY AND ANOTHER BATCH COMING TONIGHT.
WEAK LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS THE OPEN ATLC IS FORECAST TO PASS
WELL S OF THE CWA. OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS A STRONG CONVERGENCE
ZONE W/RAIN LIFTING UP ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. RADAR AND SFC OBS
SHOWED THE STEADIEST RAINFALL FROM HOULTON-MILLINOCKET ON SOUTH
W/THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION W/UP TO 0.25
INCHES. FURTHER N, HIGH PRES IN SE CANADA WAS KEEPING THE RAIN AT
BAY. LATEST RADAR TREND SHOWS NORTHERN EDGE OF STEADY RAIN JUST S
OF THE CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE. THE HRRR 3KM MODEL ALONG W/THE HIGH
RES WRF WAS DOING A NICE JOB IN CATCHING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
RAIN. USING THIS BLEND BRINGS THE NORTHERN FRINGE ACROSS CARIBOU
AND PRESQUE ISLE BEFORE SHIFTING E AND EXITING THIS REGION LATER
THIS MORNING. NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS W/LLVLS MOISTENING SOME
ACROSS THE NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY. THEREFORE, BROUGHT POPS UP SOME TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SHIFT IN THE RAIN. RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT IS OUT OF
THE CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING W/HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN FROM THE
NE. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING OUT ABOVE 850MBS INTO
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOISTENING UP AGAIN BY THE EVENING AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN TODAY W/LOW
50S AT BEST FOR MOST OF THE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW
WHERE MID 50S COULD BE REACHED W/SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.
FOR TONIGHT, THE NEXT SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT
UP FROM THE MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE QUICKLY TOWARD NOVA
SCOTIA BY FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGION THIS EVENING AND THEN
SPREAD NE. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL W/UP TO 0.25 INCHES IS EXPECTED
TO BE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
W/RAINFALL AMOUNTS FALLING OFF AS ONE MOVES N. AS A MATTER OF
FACT, AREAS N AND W OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE WILL REMAIN DRY
DUE HIGH PRES STAYING PUT N OF THE BORDER. AREAS ACROSS THE FAR N
AND W WILL SEE TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S WHILE THE
REST OF THE REGION WILL STAY IN THE LOW 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST LATER FRIDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
60S EXCEPT MID 50S TONEAR 60 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOWN EASTCOAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF FROM THE WEST. EXPECT PARTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION BUT IT WILL BE COOLER
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AN UPPER TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL TRANSITION TO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
BEFORE HEADING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
WE MAY SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE SHOWERS ON TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MORE SHOWERS BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB THIS MORNING W/SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WILL STAY AROUND VFR W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. FOR TONIGHT, CONDITIONS FORECAST TO DROP TO MVFR/IFR FOR
KBGR AND KBHB W/THE NORTHERN TERMINALS HITTING MVFR.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT IN LOW CIGS FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE A LULL BY THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS DROP OFF
BELOW 25 KTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS TO 25 KTS W/SEAS BUILDING TO
6 TO 8 FT EXPECTED AS LOW PRES APCHS FROM THE MID ATLC REGION.
SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...TD
LONG TERM...TD
AVIATION...HEWITT/TD
MARINE...HEWITT/TD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
153 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW
REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
140 AM UPDATE:
RAIN SHIELD IS EDGING FURTHER N AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST RADAR
TREND. THE HRRR 3KM MODEL WAS LINING UP WELL W/THE PLACEMENT OF
THE RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE RAIN BY 12Z
ALTHOUGH LIGHT(<0.10 INCHES). THE ST. JOHN VALLEY LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY GIVEN THE PROJECTION OF THE HRRR MOVING THE RAIN RAPIDLY NNE.
HIGH PRES TO N WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AIR TO SUPPRESS THE BULK OF THE
RAIN. ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS WHICH ARE RUNNING WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST.
ORGNL DISC:
FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT WE`LL SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE STEADY
RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING AS RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, ANOTHER BETTER-DEFINED SURFACE LOW WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE REGION. AGAIN, MORE SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING PRECIPITATION. 24-HR
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF A HOULTON TO
GREENVILLE LINE, WHERE AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCH ARE LIKELY. THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL SEE A BIT MORE, PERHAPS UP TO 0.75 INCH.
NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN 0.25 INCH, WITH THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY MAYBE GETTING A SPRINKLE OR TWO. HIGHS WILL BE WARMEST
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THEY MAY EVEN SEE A PEAK OF SUN OR TWO. THE
SAINT JOHN VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S, WHILE DOWNEAST
AREAS WILL ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 50 AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL BE SUPPORTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE THURSDAY EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM AND THE
GFS BRING THE LOW NEAR ENOUGH TO OUR REGION TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO MAINLY THE DOWNEAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS A BIT OF
LIGHT RAIN STRAYING INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NAM KEEPING PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH. THE
LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AND A WEAK TRAILING SURFACE LOW HANGS BACK IN THE MID
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING WEAK RIDGING ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
THE TWO SYSTEMS TO BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. A BIT OF MOISTURE MAY STRAY INTO THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND PULLS EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AREA MAY ALSO HELP TO PULL SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY. SURFACE FEATURES ARE VERY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED AND ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE ONLY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A WEAK AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA...WITH A SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST OF NJ. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER LOW
ALONG THE COAST OF NJ WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...EARLY SUN
MRNG...COMBINING ENERGY WITH A MUCH DEEPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
JAMES BAY REGION SUN MRNG. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT ON
TIMING...HOWEVER BOTH MOVE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MAINE BY TUES
MRNG..WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 6 HRS AHEAD OF THE GFS. WITH THE FRONT
THROUGH NRN MAINE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SLOWLY OVER ERN QUEBEC THRU WED
MRNG...WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING EAST INTO THE MARITIMES.
A NEW LOW OVER SRN ILL...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE N
ATLANTIC ACROSS CAPE COD...THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
MAINE...WITH PRECIP EXTENDING INTO THE NRN GULF OF MAINE WATERS
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL AREA A WEAK HIGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LOADED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.
LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. USED THE WIND GUST
BY FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT, WITH KBGR
AND KBHB MOST LIKELY TO SEE REDUCED VISIBILITY, ALONG WITH IFR
CEILINGS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH AND IFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN DOWNEAST ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY AND REMAIN
VFR INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PATCHY FOG MAY LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR
OR IFR IN SOME SPOTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY
MORNING MAY LOWER TO MVFR IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDINESS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 20 KT AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET.
SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
124 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
RIDGE FROM HE ROCKIES INTO SASK AND A TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH
ERN UPPER MI TO INDIANA. AT THE SFC...GUSTY NORTH WINDS PREVAILED
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI BETWEEN 1001 MB LOW PRES OVER SRN
LOWER MI AND A RIDGE FROM NW ONTARIO INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. VIS
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED THINNING CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI AS THE 900-700
MB MOISTURE THINS OUT WITH DAYTIME MIXING AND THE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA.
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE CLEARING TREND HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER THAN
FCST...EXPECT THAT BTWN 21Z-24Z MOST OF THE REMAINING CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER THE WEST
WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE WITH MIN READINGS IN THE MID 20S OVER THE
INTERIOR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
THURSDAY...MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING INTO THE WRN LAKES WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER WEATHER. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND. THE WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT KEEPING MAX READINGS IN THE 50S NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY
FRI...ALLOWING UPPER RIDGE AND SFC WARM FRONT TO BRING WARM
SUMMERLIKE TEMPS BRIEFLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRI AFTN. INITIAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON EDGE OF STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES UP TO 8C/KM
COULD TRIGGER ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER MAINLY LK SUPERIOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING WHERE STRONGEST H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION LINKS UP WITH
SUFFICIENT H85-H7 MOISTURE. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN...EXPECT
SCT MID CLOUDS TO START THE DAY FRI...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN
WITH H85 TEMPS TO +16 SUPPORTS GOING FORECAST OF 70S EAST DOWNSTREAM
OF LK MICHIGAN TO MID-UPR 80S WEST IN THE AFTN. DWPNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S...SO RH VALUES DROP TO 20-25 PCT IN THE AFTN. SW-S
WINDS LOOKS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EARLIER MODEL FORECASTS SHOWED BUT
STILL GUSTS PEAKING AT 20 MPH WILL KEEP AREA BLO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP EYE ON IN TERMS OF IF
STRONGER TREND IN WINDS CONTINUES. NAM/GFS TRY TO SHOW POCKET OF
DWPNTS FM LOW-MID 50S AND THUS GENERATE SBCAPE OVER 1000J/KG OVER
CNTRL CWA FRI AFTN AND SHOW SOME CONVECTION. COULD MAYBE SEE DWPNTS
UP TO 50 LOCALLY MAINLY NEAR WI BORDER SOUTH CNTRL. OVERALL PATTERN
WITH LOWERING H85-H7 RH FAVORS DEEPER MIXING AND LOWER DWPNTS...SO
WILL KEEP FRI AFTN WARM BUT WITH NO CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
WARMTH WILL BE BRIEF AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO
PUSHES SFC-H85 COLD FRONT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATE EVENING NORTHWEST
TO OVERNIGHT SCNTRL. EVEN THOUGH STRONGER PVA STAYS NORTH CLOSER TO
TRACK OF MAIN SHORTWAVE ACROSS ONTARIO...DIFFLUENT H5-H3 FLOW AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT FAVORS BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSRA WITH CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM. AS
FOR STRENGTH OF TSRA...UNLESS FRONT ARRIVES 00Z-03Z INSTEAD OF MORE
03Z-06Z...LIKELY LOOKING AT ELEVATED STORMS. ELEVATED MUCAPE
FORECASTS VARY WITH NAM SHOWING UP TO 2000J/KG AT 00Z SAT MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN WI WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE MAINLY 500J/KG OR LESS. ECMWF
KEEPS MOST INSTABILITY FARTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST OF CWA FRI NIGHT. MEAN
FLOW IS WNW SO IF ECMWF IS CORRECT...MOST OF TSRA WOULD REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF CWA. IF MODELS WITH MORE BULLISH INSTABILITY FARTHER
EAST ARE CORRECT...THERE IS ENOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO RESULT IN
STRONGER STORMS. SPC HAS MOST OF CWA WITHIN GENERAL TSRA RISK FRI
AND FRI NIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH MAIN HINDRANCE THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY. ATTM LOOKS LIKE TOTAL RAINFALL FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT WILL BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS...SIMILAR TO
FROPA THAT JUST OCCURRED TUE AFTN INTO THIS MORNING.
TURNING BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL NOT BE
A COOL AS TODAY BUT THE COOLING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COMPARED TO THE
SUMMERTIME WARMTH ON FRI...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. SHOULD DRY
OUT WITH RH VALUES DOWN TO 25-30 PCT SAT AFTN. IF SHOWERS AND TSRA
ARE MORE SPOTTY ON FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN MINIMAL RAIN...THE
STRONGER WINDS AND LOW RH WOULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
ON SAT AFTN OVER INTERIOR WEST AS TEMPS STILL REACH INTO THE 60S.
RE-INFORCING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO MEAN TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND
POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
ISOLD-SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER EAST HALF.
A BIT QUICKER TREND IN MODELS SUGGESTS SHRA/TSRA COULD MOVE OVER
KEWEENAW AS EARLY AS MID-LATE SAT AFTN. OTHERWISE...REST OF LONG
TERM SUN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS GENERALLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN THERE IN CASE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TUE AND/OR WED.
LATEST ECMWF WOULD POINT TO AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH 60S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN VCNTY RESULTS IN LAKE BREEZES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU
THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KNOTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN WESTERLY UNDER 20
KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
354 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. RED FLAG WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY...
CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS OF 850HPA FIELDS SHOW A TIGHT GRADIENT OF
WARMING TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
VORT MAX HAS DROPPED ACROSS MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...AND IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN. THE COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED
RAIN SHOWERS IS LIMITED AND THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 5KFT WILL
LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THIS WAVE TO PRODUCE
THUNDER. LIGHTNING HAS ACCOMPANIED THE FAST MOVING VORT MAX
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. HAVE INTRODUCED
THUNDER TO THE MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE WAVE EXITS THE REGION TO
THE SOUTH BY THE NOON HOUR...GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS AND RAPIDLY FALLING RH
VALUES. THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WITH 850HPA TEMPS IN THE TEENS...WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES
SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH
LOCATIONS IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND
25MPH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 25% WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AS COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT...THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO
CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE BEHAVIOR.
HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND
SPEEDS IN THE MIXED LAYER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
NAM/SREF/GFS ARE INDICATING MUCAPE OF UP TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OR
MORE. THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LOW...THOUGH...BECAUSE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY TRAIL
WELL BEHIND THE INSTABILITY AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT....LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE GUSTY NW
FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGHT
DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY...PROVIDING SUNNY
AND SEASONALLY NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
A STACKED LOW MIGHT LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT
WEEK...STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT MAY RESULT IN A FEW
DAYS OF COOL EASTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COULD
LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE QUICKLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
KBRD. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS THE AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY...BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE INDEED POSSIBLE. THE WEAK SYSTEM WILL PULL OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...LEAVING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 73 51 81 45 / 20 0 20 30
INL 82 52 80 39 / 20 0 20 10
BRD 81 53 85 47 / 10 0 20 20
HYR 71 50 81 47 / 20 0 10 40
ASX 70 49 82 46 / 10 0 10 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP/GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1233 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS UPDATE. MINOT THE WARM SPOT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S THIS HOUR AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OCCUR AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR 2M RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BCCONSMOS BLEND SHOWS MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT OVER ALL
BUT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CONCUR WITH THIS
IDEA AND HAVE COLLABORATED THESE THOUGHTS WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. THE STRONGEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESIDE IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AT 16KT...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DESPITE MINIMUM RH OF AROUND 17 PERCENT IN THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
ONCE AGAIN...NO REAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. CUMULUS
QUICKLY DWINDLED ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ITS STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEGAN TO DECOUPLE FROM THE SURFACE...LEAVING A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AS OF MID EVENING. TEMPERATURE TRENDS OVERNIGHT MAY BE
A BIT OF A CHALLENGE IN LOCALIZED AREAS LIKE MINOT...WHERE HIGHS
TODAY WERE WARMER AND THE SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND TRAJECTORY THAT
AIDED TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY ALSO HOLD THEM UP TONIGHT...BUT THE
GOING FORECAST IS A REASONABLE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. LATE AFTERNOON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND...MAINLY AROUND DICKINSON AND IN
THE BOTTINEAU AREA AS OF 0005 UTC. HOWEVER...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF NOTE TO THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN TEMPERATURE-
DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40-50 F AT THE SURFACE. THAT IS IN CONTRAST TO
RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS...WHICH APPEAR MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
SIMULATING SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE HAVE STAYED
THE COURSE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH READINGS
IN THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE EDGING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL FURTHER AID IN PRODUCING VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.
A VERY DRY AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY YIELD
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT.
THESE VERY DRY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE MAIN ISSUE IN REACHING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. RECENT MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THE DRY TREND FOR NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN IF A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS DO FORM...A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIKELY EVAPORATE
ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND.
THIS WEEKEND...A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS SETUP IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED EARLY LAST
WEEK. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH...AT LEAST FOR EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK.
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE LOW BY MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS IT CLOSING OFF OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND DEPICTS
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE.
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY
FLOW...TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AT
KBIS AND KMOT UNTIL 14Z-16Z THURSDAY AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
35KT AT 1500FT AGL CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
146 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WARM FRONT SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...COLD FRONT NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AS OF
02Z...GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO UPDATED HOURLY TREND INTO TONIGHT BUT LOWS
STILL LOOK PRETTY GOOD. HRRR CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DECENT POP
GUIDANCE. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE OVERNIGHT...BUT IN REALITY SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF DRY
BEFORE THE WRAP-AROUND ARRIVES WITH THE UPPER LOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS PRETTY MUCH ON THE SAME PAGE NOW
WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT...SLOWLY
SWEEPING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
STALL LATER TONIGHT ON THE LEE SLOPE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY TURNS SEWD THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA
THURSDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO POP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL WITH THE
ANOMALOUSLY LOW FREEZING LEVEL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS.
A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL HAIL AGAIN
POSSIBLE. CAT POPS WITH THIS PRECIP BAND. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
COMING MORE IN LINE...SPECIFIC TIMING WILL STILL BE WITH THE SLOWER
END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. USED THE NAM TO TRY TO INCORPORATE SOME
OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION DETAILS. BUT ONCE WE LOSE THE HEATING...THE
LACK OF SYNOPTIC INSTABILITY HAS THUNDER POTENTIAL RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST.
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW SUGGESTS A DRY SLOT WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE PRECIP WITH THE HANGING FRONT AND
WRAPAROUND SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE UPPER LOW INCREASING OVER THAT
AREA. SO...WILL DECREASE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT...BUT KEEP CAT POPS IN THE EAST. FOR THURSDAY...THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WORKING
WESTWARD IN THE WRAPAROUND FLOW OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT WITH
SOUTHEAST OHIO TRENDING TO IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPS ARE VERY MARGINAL FOR
ANY SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY MORNING...SO WILL OMIT SNOW THERE. WHILE PW`S ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...THE WEAK FLOW AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF SHOWERS AROUND
THE UPPER LOW LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY GIVE SOME CONCERN FOR WATER
PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION FOR THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT UNTIL THE SPECIFIC SETUP OF PRECIP BANDS BECOMES CLEARER.
TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY STAYING AWAY FROM THE NAM TO END THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE SHORT
TERM...WITHOUT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS EVOLUTION FROM PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. WARM FRONT IS QUICK TO FOLLOW THE EXIT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...AND WILL BRING IN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE. 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOW A TIGHTLY PACKED GRADIENT WITH THIS
WARM FRONT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A QUICK BURST OF WARMING IN THE
LATER AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVES IN
WITH THE COLD FRONT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
GOING CONSERVATIVE WITH THE QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS SHOULD
BECOME MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE EXITING OF THE
LOW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL ONLY HAVE MODEST AMOUNTS ON THE FRONT
END OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
NO SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE EXTENDED...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE BEGINNING WITH
THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BARELY CLEAR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES OF THE CWA...AND THEN LIFT BACK AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. IN THE END...WILL NOT SEE ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
OF AIRMASS...WITH FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE ACCUMULATION OF RAIN
THROUGH THE 7 DAY PERIOD...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...WATER CONCERNS ARE
RELATIVELY LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING REGION FOLLOW BY AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH TODAY. A DRY SLOT IS WORKING
ITS WAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THINK THIS WILL CAUSE HTS TO
SCATTER OUT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE CLOUDS
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW ARRIVE AROUND SUNRISE. EVERY OTHER
LOCATION WILL SEE MVFR TO EVEN IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN THE CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR THIS MORNING
AND THEN LIFT BACK TO MVFR LATER IN THE DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF WRAPAROUND SHOWERS AND IFR
CONDITIONS MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H =
HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M =
MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW:
TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 05/05/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M L L
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L L L L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L L L L L L
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH UPPER LEVEL COULD CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
526 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MOTHERS DAY LOOKS
MAINLY DRY WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO THE
WV/MD PANHANDLES /IDI-CBE TO OKV LINE/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT
WWD EARLY THIS MORNING. WE HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA LAST NIGHT /WHICH
ALSO HAPPENS TO BE ONE OF THE DRIEST SPOTS IN PA OVER THE LAST
30-60+ DAYS/ WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES PER THE SLGT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
THE CURRENT DAY 1 SLGT RISK HAS NOW SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
INTO WV/VA WHERE FFG VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER AND HIRES GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS MORE ROBUST QPF AMOUNTS.
THE MAIN FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS TODAY SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERN 1/3 OF PA. EASTERN AREAS SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH PATCHY DZ/FOG FOLLOWED BY A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE
OF SCT P.M. SHOWERS. THE MAX PCPN PROBS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES
TO THE NORTH OF DEEP CLOSED LOW REACHING THE NC/VA COAST BY 12Z
FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE FILLING AND EVENTUALLY GETTING KICKED OUT
TO SEA BY ANOTHER ANOMALOUS TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER SERN CANADA ON
SAT. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE POINTING TOWARD AN AREA OF STEADY
MODERATE RAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION GIVEN
COLD TEMPS ALOFT/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. AN INCREASE IN ATLC
ONSHORE FLOW VIA ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS AT 850MB WILL ALSO BE IN
PLACE. PCPN INTENSITY SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE INTO SATURDAY AS
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
(DUE TO TIME OF DAY) WHICH SHOULD KEEP QPF AMTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ISOLD DIURNAL SHOWERS REMAIN
A LOW PROB OVER THE NORTHERN PA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY RETURNS NWD AS A WARM FRONT WITH WARMER AIR AND RISK
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA WILL BRING A FEW
LINGERING -SHRA TO KJST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE LOW CIGS CAUSED THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. AT 09Z...STRATUS COVERS ALL OF CENTRAL PA WITH CIGS BTWN 500
AND 1000 FT.
IMPROVING CONDS INDICATED BY ALL MDL DATA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...AS DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING CAUSE CIGS TO RISE.
BY AFTN...LATEST HRRR AND SREF SUPPORT LIKELY VFR CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PA AND POSSIBLE VFR CONDS AT KBFD/KMDT/KLNS.
HOWEVER...SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF VIS
REDUCTION IN THOSE AREAS.
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY CAUSE CIGS TO
FALL AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CONDS BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN LIKELY. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT NIGHT.
SAT...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. EVENING SHRA POSS.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
233 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATE EVENING RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES EARLIER BROKEN LINE OF
PERSISTENT SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO NORTHEAST
PA HAS DISSIPATED...WHILE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED IN
DEFORMATION FROM CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE MD/WV PANHANDLES WNW INTO
WEST CENTRAL PA. THE HRRR TAKES THIS LINE AND TRACKS IT EASTWARD
WHILE DAMPENING IT OVERNIGHT OVER THE LAURELS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SHRA AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE.
THIS IS CLOSE TO THE SCENARIO PAINTED BY THE DAY SHIFT AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN POPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER WAS NEEDED THIS EVENING.
TOUCHED UP POPS OVER SOUTHEAST PA WHICH HAD THE EASTERN EXTENT OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL SLIGHTLY TOO FAR EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATEST PCPN RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTING NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR
SENSIBLE WX ELEMENTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H5 LOW REACHING ITS FURTHEST SOUTHERN
EXTEND THU NIGHT OVER NC WILL THEN LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI INTO SAT. BIGGEST CHANGE IS SHARPENING OF
PRECIP FIELD FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...WITH 24-HOUR QPF POTENTIAL
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT OF AROUND 1.00 INCH. WPC HAS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2. UPPED POPS
AND QPF AMOUNTS NOTICEABLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PROBABILITY.
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AFTER A WARMER AND MAINLY DRY DAY ON
SAT...THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR ANOTHER RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-
MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT AGAIN...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE WORK WEEK AHEAD
OF NEXT RAIN CHANCES MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA WILL BRING A
FEW LINGERING -SHRA TO THAT PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOW CIGS CAUSED THE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. AT 06Z...STRATUS COVERS ALL OF
CENTRAL PA WITH CIGS CLOSE TO 1 KFT. A BIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL LIKELY CAUSE CIGS TO FALL FURTHER...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS
EXPECTED TOWARD DAWN.
IMPROVING CONDS INDICATED BY ALL MDL DATA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...AS DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING CAUSE CIGS TO
RISE. LATEST HRRR AND SREF SUPPORT LIKELY VFR ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA BY AFTN AND POSSIBLE VFR CONDS AT KBFD/KMDT/KLNS.
HOWEVER...SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF
VIS REDUCTION IN THOSE AREAS.
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY CAUSE CIGS TO
FALL AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CONDS BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN LIKELY. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT NIGHT.
SAT...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. EVENING SHRA POSS.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
438 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING TO ALONG THE NC/VA COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING....THEN TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST OF PA/NY BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT THURSDAY...
GETTING SOME CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE
PIEDMONT...WITH SBCAPES OF 100-200 J/KG. PER HRRR ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING OVER THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF
VA/NC.
PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION...
VERY WET SCENARIO SHAPING UP TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALREADY SEEING
RAIN EXPANDING ACROSS THE NW NC PIEDMONT INTO THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT OF VA AT 320 AM.
QUESTION TODAY IS NOT IF IT IS GOING TO RAIN...IT IS WHERE WILL AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAINS SET UP...AND HOW HEAVY WILL THE RAIN BE...IN TERMS
OF AMOUNTS AND MOVEMENT. MODELS SEEM TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A
CORRIDOR OF STRONG LOW LVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH PERIODS OF
UPPER DIFLUENCE FAVOR A SE WV TO SOUTHSIDE VA REGION FOR STEADIER
RAINS...HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A ROANOKE TO SOUTH
BOSTON LINE. STILL IFFY AS TO HOW MUCH FALLS AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT.
AT THE MOMENT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES...THOUGH AM
CONCERNED SINCE SOME OF THE RIVERS IN THE PIEDMONT HAVE BEEN RUNNING
HIGH...WITH SOUTH BOSTON ALONG THE DAN RIVER STILL ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE...THAT SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR AGAIN LATER TODAY INTO
FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL HIT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
POTENTIAL STREAM OR RIVER FLOODING. FORECAST RAINFALL TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO JUST OVER AN INCH FROM LEWISBURG WV SOUTHEAST
TO DANVILLE AND POINTS NORTHEAST TO LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER
THE NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS.
AS FAR AS CONVECTION/THUNDER GOES...IT APPEARS CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER SFC TEMPS WILL LIMIT LOW LVL LAPSE RATES AND THERMODYNAMIC
INSTABILITY...THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE THERE ALONG WITH
COOLER AIR ALOFT THAT POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL MAY EXIST WITH
ISOLATED LIGHTNING. THE CONFIDENCE IN HAVING THIS IN THE FORECAST IS
LOW...THINKING ANY THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED AND ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER WILL BE SOUTH AND WELL EAST OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
WE ARE GOING TO SEE SHOWERS/RAIN WORK IN A NW TO SE PATTERN THEN
PIVOT TO AN EAST-WEST AXIS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST OF US TONIGHT...THE SHOWERS SHOULD SPIN AROUND TO
MORE A N-S AXIS WITH BANDS SETTING UP ALONG AND WEST OF A BUCKINGHAM
TO BOONE LINE BY EVENING WHILE HEAVIER SHOWERS WORK EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP POPS HIGH THOUGH QPF WILL BE
LOW...GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
NEEDLESS TO SAY IT WILL BE COOL TODAY WITH POTENTIAL RECORD COOL
HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING BROKEN MAINLY AT BLUEFIELD...BLACKSBURG AND
ROANOKE. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WEST...TO MID TO UPPER 50S EAST.
WITH CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD BE SLOW TO FALL..WITH
MIXING OCCURRING AS SFC LOW OFF THE COAST SHIFTS NORTH. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE NC MTNS/FAR SW VA INTO
SE WV...TO MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD
AND WEAKEN DURING FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD
SHOULD DRIFT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
SURFACE LOW THAT IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE MID-
ATLANTIC. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, 500 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW DEPARTS AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
HEADS EASTWARD. LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT, BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL NOT LAST LONG IN THE MOUNTAINS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY,
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHER POPS WERE
INSERTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE COLD FRONT STALLING OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY, BUT THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS CARRIES LOWER QPF THAN THE ECMWF. WHILE
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LOWER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES,
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD TRUMP THESE VARIABLES TO ALLOW A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CAPE,
SO THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. IF DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHICAL
EFFECTS CAN OVERCOME THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY, THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DRIFTS EAST IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AS FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY EVOLVES INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.
A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL DROP SOUTH SUNDAY INTO OUR AREA
AND STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING AS A
WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING OR
AMOUNTS ATTM. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 77 EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY...OUR AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH AND COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST IN
THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY...THEN
MODERATE INTO MIDWEEK. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOL DOWN IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE INTO THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TERMINALS AS WE
SHOULD START TO SEE SHOWERS/RAIN EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THEN TO THE MID ATLANTIC. MODELS ARE
SHOWING SHOWERY/RAINY WX FOR ALL TERMINALS MOST OF THE PERIOD
AFTER 10-12Z TODAY...WITH BLF/BCB/DAN ON THE SRN EDGE OF WHERE THE
BEST LIFT OCCURS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS
AT ALL SITES...GIVEN THAT IF IT RAINS HEAVY ENOUGH THE CIGS SHOULD
BE MVFR WITH VSBYS IFR...TO LIGHTER SHRA/RAIN LEADING TO LOWER
CIGS.
NOT FORESEEING ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THE MOMENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN
THE TAFS.
CONFIDENCE IN SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS PERIOD IS HIGH...BUT EXPECT
SOME SMALLER WINDOWS OF HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR AT TIMES NEAR
BLF/BCB/DAN THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY. MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. SOME
VFR IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE BETTER ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE REACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORE SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY.
MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THOUGH WARM
FRONT MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A SEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY APPROACH BREAK THE
RECORD FOR COOLEST HIGHS FOR MAY 5TH. BELOW ARE THE CURRENT
RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 5TH.
THURSDAY 05/05/2016
SITE LOMAX YEAR
KBLF 50 1988
KDAN 51 1994
KLYH 51 1908
KROA 52 1917
KRNK 48 1994
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/WP
CLIMATE...CF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
432 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWER CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW
HEADS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:43 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE RADAR IS QUIET AT
THIS HOUR BUT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WITH EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES MILD IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. UPPER LOW
WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST WILL HEAD TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT...INCREASING
PVA AND SOME COLD AIR INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
LATEST MESOSCALE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
IN SHOWERS STARTING TO FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SAN BENITO
AND SANTA CLARA COUNTY AND THEN ROTATING OVER SOME OF THE MORE
POPULATED SECTIONS AROUND THE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. PIN-POINTING
PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN DIFFICULT BUT CONFIDENCE
STARTING TO INCREASE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME ACTION THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN ALL THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
THRESHOLDS TO BE MET BUT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
WITH SMALL HAIL...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET BUT SHOWER THREAT
REMAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT AS THE
LOW SLOWLY DIVES SOUTHWARD.
CONTINUED COOL ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW HEADS TOWARDS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME STRATIFORM LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES NEED TO
STAY IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY BUT CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW FINALLY EJECTS.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD END BY SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING. THEN A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND DEVELOPS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 04:28 AM PDT THURSDAY...NEARBY UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THAT BEING
SAID...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXPECTING A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS
WITH CIGS GENERALLY 2-4K FT. ADDITIONALLY...NAILING DOWN PRECIP IS
TRICKY SO IT/S BEST COVERED BY VCSH. BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OVERALL CONF IS LOW.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS FOR THE MOST PART...BUT OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. VICINITY SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONF IS LOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN
AND MAY HIT 10 KT LATER TODAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...SIMILAR TO TERMINALS UP NORTH...MOSTLY VFR
AT THIS POINT...BUT MAY MIX WITH MVFR CIGS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 02:49 AM PDT THURSDAY...A NEARBY STORM SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS
IN THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF PT REYES. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
343 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWER CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW
HEADS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:43 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE RADAR IS QUIET AT
THIS HOUR BUT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WITH EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES MILD IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. UPPER LOW
WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST WILL HEAD TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT...INCREASING
PVA AND SOME COLD AIR INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
LATEST MESOSCALE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
IN SHOWERS STARTING TO FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SAN BENITO
AND SANTA CLARA COUNTY AND THEN ROTATING OVER SOME OF THE MORE
POPULATED SECTIONS AROUND THE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. PIN-POINTING
PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN DIFFICULT BUT CONFIDENCE
STARTING TO INCREASE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME ACTION THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN ALL THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
THRESHOLDS TO BE MET BUT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
WITH SMALL HAIL...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET BUT SHOWER THREAT
REMAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT AS THE
LOW SLOWLY DIVES SOUTHWARD.
CONTINUED COOL ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW HEADS TOWARDS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME STRATIFORM LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES NEED TO
STAY IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY BUT CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW FINALLY EJECTS.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD END BY SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING. THEN A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND DEVELOPS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED
ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF KMRY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ACCORDING TO MOST
MODEL DATA...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW
UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY WHEN CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. UNTIL
THEN...MAIN CONCERN IS LOW CLOUDS. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AT MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.
WINDS LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AROUND 06Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE MODERATE. SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY 09Z AND
THEN PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF KMRY STARTING LATE MORNING THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS
MAINLY FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 02:49 AM PDT THURSDAY...A NEARBY STORM SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS
IN THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF PT REYES. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
932 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL BE
MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
* MORE RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
FOCUSED OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND
*/ DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...
DRY SLOT HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE STEADY RAINS FROM LAST EVENING. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE AN
INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE COUPLED WITH 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE MARITIMES
IS GENERATING A STIFF AND MOIST NE LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE REGION.
THIS IS RESULTING IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE. IN ADDITION...WITH OCEAN TEMPS ONLY IN THE M40S THIS
NE WIND TRAJECTORY WILL LIMIT HIGHS TODAY TO THE 40S...POSSIBLY
L50S ACROSS CT RVR VLY. IT WILL FEEL EVEN COOLER GIVEN THE NE
WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE. KEEP IN MIND THE
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH FOR EARLY MAY IS IN THE 60S.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND ACROSS FL WITH THE NOSE OF A 110KT JET STREAK OFF THE
COAST OF GA/SC. THIS JET IMPULSE INITIATES CYCLOGENESIS EARLY THIS
MORNING OFF THE CAROLINAS. NEW 00Z EC/UKMET/RGEM/ARW AND NMM HAVE
ALL TRENDED WEAKER/FLATTER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EAST OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THUS HAVE FOLLOWED A
NON-NAM SOLUTION HERE. THIS SCENARIO FOCUSES STEADY RAIN /PERHAPS
MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR AT TIME/ TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE
TODAY AND EVENING. FARTHER WEST THE RISK OF A STEADY/HEAVIER RAIN
DIMINISHES RAPIDLY. THEREFORE IT/S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE DAY
ACROSS RI/CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL JUST DEALS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WITH A DRYING TREND THEREAFTER.
NEVERTHELESS WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS A SHIFT OF 50-100
MILES WEST WOULD RESULT IN STEADY AND HEAVIER RAIN TRACKING NEAR
RI AND THE WORCESTER HILLS. 9Z HRRR HAS THE RAIN GETTING AS FAR W
AS THE 495 BELTWAY AND E WORCESTER METRO WHILE ALSO IMPACTING MUCH
OF RI AND SE CT.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS EASTERN MA AS 925 MB LOW LEVEL
NE JET INCREASES TO 35 TO 45 KT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG FORMING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT
AND MOIST NE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FRIDAY...
OTHER THAN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THE DAY SHOULD START OFF
MAINLY DRY. IN FACT SOME OF THE MODEL GUID SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET EARLY IN
THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW TRACKS FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE NJ COAST. THIS ADVECTS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF RAIN INTO CT AND WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA FRI AFTN. PRECIP MAY NOT REACH EASTERN MA UNTIL AFTER
DARK.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN MA AS EAST WINDS
INCREASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- DREARY WEATHER OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY
- COLD FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
- QUICK BLAST OF COLDER AIR MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
- POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU THE WEEK
*/ DISCUSSION...
TACKLING AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST APPROACH WITH A BROADER VIEW...BLOCKY
FLOW PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES WHILE SEEMINGLY TO SUBTLY SHIFT E OVER THE
COURSE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS. DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING IS PREFERRED OVER THE NE CONUS WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT S OF GREENLAND. PERHAPS A CONSEQUENCE OF POOR
FORECAST CONSENSUS OF THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA PATTERN...WHAT WAS
JUST A DAY OR TWO AGO A FORECAST OF DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S HAS BEEN COMPLETELY OBLITERATED INTO RENEWED PERIOD
OF DREARY WET WEATHER.
SO AN INITIAL WET AND DREARY PERIOD BENEATH A DYING LOW OCCLUSION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS ERODING INTO POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN / DRIZZLE AS DRIER AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM. TRICKY FORECAST
THAT WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. OVERALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WASH-OUT...PERHAPS THE SALVAGEABLE DAY
OF THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO THE DISMAL WEATHER CONCLUDING SUNDAY AS A
N-STREAM DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE BEST AND LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
SEE A QUICK BLAST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BREEZY W/NW FLOW.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST PERIOD
REMAINING BELOW-AVERAGE.
THEREAFTER A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. FROM AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH IT
WOULD APPEAR ENERGY OUT OF THE N-CENTRAL CONUS DEAMPLIFIES BENEATH A
MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN AND FAVORABLE RIDGING. BUT IN
EVALUATING DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...VARIANCE IS EVIDENT IN HANDLING
INDIVIDUAL WAVES THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE 05.0Z ECMWF
HIGHLIGHTING A MORE ROBUST N STREAM WAVE AROUND MIDWEEK. LEANING ON
AN ENSEMBLE-WEIGHTED FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARDS A FORECAST OF WAVE
ENERGY SWEEPING ALONG A STALLED W TO E FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE
C-CONUS AND STORMS DEVELOPING S OF GREENLAND. NO CERTAINTY ON THE
EXACT FRONTAL BOUNDARY / BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT A PROLONGED PERIOD
LOOKS PLAUSIBLE OF NUISANCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN UNDER BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WHICH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TOWARDS MID MAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME BREAKS IN-BETWEEN AND SUN-
SHINE...AND IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO MIX OUT AND H85
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND +10C WE COULD SEE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE 60S. AGAIN...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY INTO
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z UPDATE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...
-DZ INTO MIDDAY WITH IFR HOLDING E OF ORH TRANSITIONING TO -RA
WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY LOWERING AND VSBY IMPACTS. WHEREAS W...
CONDITIONS IMPROVING MVFR POSSIBLY LOW END VFR OVER THE CT RIVER
VALLEY WITH LITTLE RESTRICTION IN VSBY. BREEZY NE FLOW INCREASING
THROUGHOUT WITH 25 TO 35 KT GUSTS OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS
TOWARDS EVENING.
TONIGHT...
TRENDS OF MVFR W AND IFR-LIFR E CONTINUE. -RA OVER E/SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH 25 TO 35 KT NE WINDS CONTINUES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS CONCLUDING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.
FRIDAY...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IF EVER BRIEFLY. MVFR LIKELY. -RA DEVELOPING
LATE ALONG WITH NE WINDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE TAF. WILL BRING
RAIN IN ON 20Z AND KEEP CONDITIONS LOW PRIOR TOWARDS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...WILL KEEP -RA WEST. CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER
TODAY POTENTIALLY UP TO LOW END VFR.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW END VFR TO LIFR MIX WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS PER
SHRA/DZ/BR INITIALLY...IMPROVING THROUGH SATURDAY. E WINDS VEER S
WHILE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING TERMINALS SUNDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. POSSIBLE LLWS AND LIKELY -RA/RA IMPACTS
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT...BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W/NW AND ARE
IMMEDIATELY GUSTY WITH UP TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. IMPROVING VFR WHILE WINDS W/NW WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
7 AM UPDATE...
TODAY...
NE WINDS ALREADY GUSTING 25 TO 30 KTS. WILL INCREASE TO GALES INTO
BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. WARNINGS POSTED. RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBY ON THE WATERS. WAVES BUILDING 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS.
TONIGHT...
NE GALES CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY WINDS DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AT
TIMES.
FRIDAY...
LOW PRES MOVES UP THE COAST FROM THE MID ATLC TO NJ. THIS WILL
RESULT IN EAST WINDS INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ALONG WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE RI WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WET WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER E/NE FLOW WITH POTENTIAL
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS E WINDS VEER S ALLOWING WAVE ACTION TO DIMINISH. BUT SHORT
LIVED AS S WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY. GUSTS TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WAVES BUILDING
5 TO 7 FEET...BACKING W/NW WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT DIMINISHING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO
DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET BY THE END OF PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
930 AM UPDATE...
PRIOR FORECAST AND ADVISORY LOCATION LOOKS GOOD. HAVE ADJUSTED
SURGE AND SEAS UP A LITTLE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND HIGH
RESOLUTION WIND GUIDANCE. SURGE IS PRESENTLY RUNNING A LITTLE OVER
A FOOT AT BOSTON...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET HARBOR OR ABOUT A HALF
FOOT ABOVE BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. WOULD ANTICIPATE THE
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WHICH MAY STRENGTHEN A TAD THIS EVENING TO
RESULT IN A MODEST AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN SURGE. IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS...SUCH AS SCITUATE AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR...MAY APPROACH THE HIGH END OF MINOR IMPACTS FOR THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE. HAVE KEPT THE ESSEX COUNTY COASTLINE OUT OF
THE ADVISORY AREA FOR NOW BUT WILL REEVALUATE LATER TODAY. AT
LEAST POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI EVENING
DUE TO HIGH ASTRO TIDE AND PROBABLE SLOWNESS FOR THE SURGE TO
EVACUATE...BUT WE DO NOT THINK THIS WARRANTS A DOUBLE HEADLINE AT
THIS TIME.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.
ASTRO TIDE AT BOSTON IS 11.95 FT AT 10:55 PM. NE WINDS OF 25 TO 35
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE AROUND 1
FT. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WAVE ACTION ONTOP OF THE SURGE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COASTLINE FROM BOSTON SOUTHWARD THRU PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD BAY
AND NANTUCKET. RISK IS LOWER NORTH OF BOSTON BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO EVALUATE FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MAZ015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
715 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL BE
MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
* MORE RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
FOCUSED OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND
*/ DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...
DRY SLOT HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE STEADY RAINS FROM LAST EVENING. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE AN
INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE COUPLED WITH 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE MARITIMES
IS GENERATING A STIFF AND MOIST NE LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE REGION.
THIS IS RESULTING IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE. IN ADDITION...WITH OCEAN TEMPS ONLY IN THE M40S THIS
NE WIND TRAJECTORY WILL LIMIT HIGHS TODAY TO THE 40S...POSSIBLY
L50S ACROSS CT RVR VLY. IT WILL FEEL EVEN COOLER GIVEN THE NE
WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE. KEEP IN MIND THE
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH FOR EARLY MAY IS IN THE 60S.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND ACROSS FL WITH THE NOSE OF A 110KT JET STREAK OFF THE
COAST OF GA/SC. THIS JET IMPULSE INITIATES CYCLOGENESIS EARLY THIS
MORNING OFF THE CAROLINAS. NEW 00Z EC/UKMET/RGEM/ARW AND NMM HAVE
ALL TRENDED WEAKER/FLATTER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EAST OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THUS HAVE FOLLOWED A
NON-NAM SOLUTION HERE. THIS SCENARIO FOCUSES STEADY RAIN /PERHAPS
MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR AT TIME/ TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE
TODAY AND EVENING. FARTHER WEST THE RISK OF A STEADY/HEAVIER RAIN
DIMINISHES RAPIDLY. THEREFORE IT/S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE DAY
ACROSS RI/CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL JUST DEALS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WITH A DRYING TREND THEREAFTER.
NEVERTHELESS WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS A SHIFT OF 50-100
MILES WEST WOULD RESULT IN STEADY AND HEAVIER RAIN TRACKING NEAR
RI AND THE WORCESTER HILLS. 9Z HRRR HAS THE RAIN GETTING AS FAR W
AS THE 495 BELTWAY AND E WORCESTER METRO WHILE ALSO IMPACTING MUCH
OF RI AND SE CT.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS EASTERN MA AS 925 MB LOW LEVEL
NE JET INCREASES TO 35 TO 45 KT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG FORMING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT
AND MOIST NE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FRIDAY...
OTHER THAN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THE DAY SHOULD START OFF
MAINLY DRY. IN FACT SOME OF THE MODEL GUID SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET EARLY IN
THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW TRACKS FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE NJ COAST. THIS ADVECTS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF RAIN INTO CT AND WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA FRI AFTN. PRECIP MAY NOT REACH EASTERN MA UNTIL AFTER
DARK.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN MA AS EAST WINDS
INCREASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- DREARY WEATHER OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY
- COLD FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
- QUICK BLAST OF COLDER AIR MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
- POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU THE WEEK
*/ DISCUSSION...
TACKLING AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST APPROACH WITH A BROADER VIEW...BLOCKY
FLOW PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES WHILE SEEMINGLY TO SUBTLY SHIFT E OVER THE
COURSE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS. DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING IS PREFERRED OVER THE NE CONUS WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT S OF GREENLAND. PERHAPS A CONSEQUENCE OF POOR
FORECAST CONSENSUS OF THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA PATTERN...WHAT WAS
JUST A DAY OR TWO AGO A FORECAST OF DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S HAS BEEN COMPLETELY OBLITERATED INTO RENEWED PERIOD
OF DREARY WET WEATHER.
SO AN INITIAL WET AND DREARY PERIOD BENEATH A DYING LOW OCCLUSION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS ERODING INTO POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN / DRIZZLE AS DRIER AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM. TRICKY FORECAST
THAT WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. OVERALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WASH-OUT...PERHAPS THE SALVAGEABLE DAY
OF THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO THE DISMAL WEATHER CONCLUDING SUNDAY AS A
N-STREAM DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE BEST AND LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
SEE A QUICK BLAST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BREEZY W/NW FLOW.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST PERIOD
REMAINING BELOW-AVERAGE.
THEREAFTER A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. FROM AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH IT
WOULD APPEAR ENERGY OUT OF THE N-CENTRAL CONUS DEAMPLIFIES BENEATH A
MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN AND FAVORABLE RIDGING. BUT IN
EVALUATING DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...VARIANCE IS EVIDENT IN HANDLING
INDIVIDUAL WAVES THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE 05.0Z ECMWF
HIGHLIGHTING A MORE ROBUST N STREAM WAVE AROUND MIDWEEK. LEANING ON
AN ENSEMBLE-WEIGHTED FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARDS A FORECAST OF WAVE
ENERGY SWEEPING ALONG A STALLED W TO E FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE
C-CONUS AND STORMS DEVELOPING S OF GREENLAND. NO CERTAINTY ON THE
EXACT FRONTAL BOUNDARY / BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT A PROLONGED PERIOD
LOOKS PLAUSIBLE OF NUISANCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN UNDER BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WHICH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TOWARDS MID MAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME BREAKS IN-BETWEEN AND SUN-
SHINE...AND IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO MIX OUT AND H85
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND +10C WE COULD SEE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE 60S. AGAIN...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY INTO
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z UPDATE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...
-DZ INTO MIDDAY WITH IFR HOLDING E OF ORH TRANSITIONING TO -RA
WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY LOWERING AND VSBY IMPACTS. WHEREAS W...
CONDITIONS IMPROVING MVFR POSSIBLY LOW END VFR OVER THE CT RIVER
VALLEY WITH LITTLE RESTRICTION IN VSBY. BREEZY NE FLOW INCREASING
THROUGHOUT WITH 25 TO 35 KT GUSTS OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS
TOWARDS EVENING.
TONIGHT...
TRENDS OF MVFR W AND IFR-LIFR E CONTINUE. -RA OVER E/SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH 25 TO 35 KT NE WINDS CONTINUES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS CONCLUDING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.
FRIDAY...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IF EVER BRIEFLY. MVFR LIKELY. -RA DEVELOPING
LATE ALONG WITH NE WINDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE TAF. WILL BRING
RAIN IN ON 20Z AND KEEP CONDITIONS LOW PRIOR TOWARDS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...WILL KEEP -RA WEST. CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER
TODAY POTENTIALLY UP TO LOW END VFR.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW END VFR TO LIFR MIX WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS PER
SHRA/DZ/BR INITIALLY...IMPROVING THROUGH SATURDAY. E WINDS VEER S
WHILE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING TERMINALS SUNDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. POSSIBLE LLWS AND LIKELY -RA/RA IMPACTS
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT...BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W/NW AND ARE
IMMEDIATELY GUSTY WITH UP TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. IMPROVING VFR WHILE WINDS W/NW WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
7 AM UPDATE...
TODAY...
NE WINDS ALREADY GUSTING 25 TO 30 KTS. WILL INCREASE TO GALES INTO
BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. WARNINGS POSTED. RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBY ON THE WATERS. WAVES BUILDING 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS.
TONIGHT...
NE GALES CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY WINDS DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AT
TIMES.
FRIDAY...
LOW PRES MOVES UP THE COAST FROM THE MID ATLC TO NJ. THIS WILL
RESULT IN EAST WINDS INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ALONG WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE RI WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WET WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER E/NE FLOW WITH POTENTIAL
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS E WINDS VEER S ALLOWING WAVE ACTION TO DIMINISH. BUT SHORT
LIVED AS S WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY. GUSTS TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WAVES BUILDING
5 TO 7 FEET...BACKING W/NW WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT DIMINISHING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO
DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET BY THE END OF PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.
ASTRO TIDE AT BOSTON IS 11.95 FT AT 10:55 PM. NE WINDS OF 25 TO 35
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE AROUND 1
FT. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WAVE ACTION ONTOP OF THE SURGE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COASTLINE FROM BOSTON SOUTHWARD THRU PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD BAY
AND NANTUCKET. RISK IS LOWER NORTH OF BOSTON BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO EVALUATE FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MAZ015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
237.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
657 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN MEANDERS AND
WEAKENS AROUND THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT ACROSS OUR
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OTHERWISE A GENERALLY
RAINFREE DAY. HRRR IS FIRING UP SOME SHOWERS MIDDAY VCNTY DE BAY
AND THEN SE PA AND SNJ THIS AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS WELL BELOW AVG
REGARDING THIS OCCURRENCE. TEMPS NEARLY STEADY THROUGH SUNRISE
THEN ONLY SMALL RISES DURING THE DAY WITH COLD AIR UNDERRUNNING
NORTHEAST WIND ADVECTION FROM THE RESERVOIR OF COOLER WET BULBS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAX TEMPS MAYBE 15 BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NORTHEAST
WIND 20 TO 25 MPH DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.
FCST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM MOS. POPS...USED THE
HRRR TO KEEP THE MORNING-MIDDAY DRY (EXCEPTING SPOTTY DRIZZLE S
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA). CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON ALL
EXCEPT WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MIDDAY-THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
APPEARS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN INSTABILITY BURST WILL BE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
NEAR DELAWARE. THUNDER POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY NEAR DELAWARE.
SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WHERE THEY DO OCCUR THOUGH PWAT ONLY
INCREASES TO NEAR 1 INCH. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 MPH. POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED 15 PCT IN LATER FORECAST FOR
LATE TONIGHT.
330 AM FORECAST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS WITH THE POPS MODIFIED BY THE SREF PROBS. WPC QPF 00Z/5 QPF
GRIDS USED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CONTINUATION OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
FRIDAY, THEN THIS BREAKS DOWN DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS
CHANGE OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY, KICKING OUT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK. THIS INCOMING TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE THEN
ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT ALSO MOVING
THROUGH. THERE COULD BE SOME TRICKINESS THOUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS
INCOMING ENERGY SHEARS EASTWARD ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS OUR
AREA GETS INTO THE TRUE WARM SECTOR NEXT WEEK HOWEVER IT MAY BE
CLOSE ACROSS THE NORTH STARTING WEDNESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
APPROACH FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH TO
START FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTS NORTH AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
STRONG 500 MB JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW WITH
OUR AREA WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION FOR A TIME FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE
THEN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS,
WAVES OF STRONGER FORCING GENERALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 0.75-1.00 INCHES
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS THE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW ARRIVING. DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, THE PRESENCE OF THE 500 MB
JET STREAK AND A COLD CORE ALOFT /STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS ADDED FOR FRIDAY /PERHAPS SMALL HAIL
OCCURS WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDER/. WE THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THE STEADY RAIN AND TRANSITION TO SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED LOW SETTLES RIGHT OVER US AND THE STRONGER FORCING MAY
SHIFT WEST AND NORTH.
THE CLOSED LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE COLD CORE ALOFT STILL OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY, SOME SHOWERS
SHOULD STILL OCCUR. WE LOOK TO FINALLY LOSE THE ONSHORE FLOW
COMPONENT SATURDAY, THEREFORE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WHICH COULD PROVIDE A LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR SOME LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HELD OFF INTRODUCING A THUNDER MENTION
ATTM.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE DRIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY START TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AND WITH A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT, WE
INCREASED THE POPS TOWARD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS. THE GREATEST CHC
FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA,
THEREFORE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY EARLY ON. WHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, A
WARMER AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING BREEZE.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING FROM THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE DOWNSTREAM WAA. THIS WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH IT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR
NORTH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ENERGY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW MAY SHEAR EASTWARD INTO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THEREFORE THE WARM
FRONT MAY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES,
HOWEVER PLENTY OF WARMTH SHOULD BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT, A MUCH WARMER TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WEATHER. THE PRECIPITATION CHCS
ARE NOT ALL THAT CLEAR ATTM AS IT WILL DEPEND ON POTENTIAL SHEARING
ENERGY RUNNING EASTWARD AS THE WARM FRONTS NORTHWARD PROGRESS
SLOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...CIGS VARIABLE BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FT WITH POCKETS
OF 2-5MI DRIZZLE. BEST CHANCE IFR CONDS MAINLY VCNTY KPHL/KILG/KMIV/KACY.
NORTHEAST GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.
AFTER 12Z...ANY IFR CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND
3000 FT BY MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY TO VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD QUIT BY 16Z. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTY 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT I95 REGION EASTWARD AND LESS THAN
18 KT VCNTY KRDG AND KABE.
TONIGHT...VFR CIGS TO START BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DEGRADE TO MVFR
OR IFR IN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SOMETIME AFTER 03Z/6. NORTHEAST WIND...
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN
THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF RAIN FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES WITH THIS BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AT NIGHT, THEN A FEW SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY.
SOME SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AS SOME SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT, THEN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY,
BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25 TO 30
KT AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. SCA FOR LOWER DE BAY IS MARGINAL FOR A
FEW GUSTS 25 KT MIDDAY.
OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY BEFORE MEANDERING AND
DISSIPATING THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL ALLOW
FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATER IN THE DAY.
THE FLOW THEN DECREASES FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT THEN MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD GUST TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SEAS ON OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
INTO SATURDAY, THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS THE
WINDS LESSEN FOR A TIME AND TURN SOUTHERLY SATURDAY. THE SEAS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW 5 FEET SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MAXIMUM WEDNESDAY EVENING TIDES ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS WERE
WITHIN 1 INCH OF THE MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION FLOOD THRESHOLD WITH
SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 1.2 FEET.
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE
AT LEAST 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET FOR BOTH OF TODAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
AND ANOTHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING AT 330 AM. THOSE
VALUES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH
FRIDAY`S NEW MOON WILL RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS AT HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY THIS
THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS MORNINGS ADVISORY ALONG THE DE COAST WILL BE MARGINAL, SIMILAR
TO LAST EVENING. ALONG THE OCEANFRONT THE INCOMING WAVES WILL BE A
FOOT OR 2 HIGHER THAN THOSE OF LAST EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, THE DAY SHIFT MAY BE EXTENDING THE CF ADVISORY TO
THE TIDAL DE RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE COMMODORE BARRY BRIDGE INTO
THE EXTREME UPPER PART OF DE BAY (REEDY POINT LINK) FOR THE LATE
THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO THE ASTRONOMICAL
COMPONENT OF THE TIDES. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT NEED MUCH OF A
POSITIVE SURGE DEPARTURE ESPECIALLY WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
LEADING UP TO THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. AS A RESULT, MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
COAST AND UP DELAWARE BAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 658
SHORT TERM...DRAG 658
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 658
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 658
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...658
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1052 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE LOW CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING
BASED ON HRRR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WHILE IT WRAPS UP ACROSS
THE REGION DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS RESIDES GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY BASED OFF COMPOSITE WSR-88D RADAR
DATA. THAT SAID THESE SHOWERS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN TN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS THESE SHOWERS SLIDE OUT MORE SHOWERS
WILL SLIDE IN FROM WEST VA. THESE LOOK TO MAINLY AFFECT THE FAR
EAST AND NORTHEAST IN TERMS OF COVERAGE. THIS THINKING SEEMS TO
BE REASONABLE BASED ON THE CAMS...SPC SSEO...AND RADAR TRENDS.
GIVEN THE CURRENT SETUP LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEEING ANY THUNDER TODAY
AND THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST. OVERALL
TEMPS ARE ON TRACK AND COULD BE LOOKING AT MINIMUM HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD TODAY WHICH IS 52 DEGREES AT JKL BACK IN 2013.
UPDATED POPS/TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND AS THEY WORK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT MOST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE INCREASED POPS AREAWIDE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AS THIS VORT MAX DROPS SOUTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN SHOWERS
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS
PUSH IN FROM THE EAST. BLACK MOUNTAIN HAS DROPPED OFF TO 32
DEGREES...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE SEEN THERE.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE ALL RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO.
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS DRY AS ALL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A VORT MAX IS
DROPPING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA...INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND LIKELY CLIP THE COUNTIES IN THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY...OR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS AS THIS ACTIVITY DROPS SOUTH...BUT MAY DECIDE TO GO UP
TO CATEGORICAL IF SHOWERS HOLD TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE A DAMP MORNING FOR THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.
AS THE VORT MAX EXITS SOUTH THIS MORNING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WE MAY SEE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS DEVELOP
ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE DEPARTING VORT MAX. WITH 850MB TEMPS
GETTING CLOSE TO -1C THIS MORNING...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
SNOW FLAKES ON BLACK MOUNTAIN. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD MAINLY
IMPACT SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH BY
MIDDAY.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM OHIO. THIS TIME AROUND...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SET TO BE IMPACTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE
GONE MUCH HIGHER WITH POPS AS MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD BE
ABUNDANT. WE ALSO HAVE UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WHILE MODELS HAD INDICATED SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
YESTERDAY...TODAYS RUNS HAVE LOOKED MUCH LESS FAVORABLE...SO
DESPITE THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS...WILL MAINTAIN NO THUNDER. IF WE
WERE TO GET SOME STORMS...HAIL WOULD BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS. BY TONIGHT...THE WAVE WILL EXIT
SOUTH...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME
LOW POPS FOR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. FINALLY...ON
FRIDAY...ONE LAST WAVE LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH WITH A POSSIBLE UPTICK
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF AROUND 40 THIS MORNING...HAVE CUT BACK
HIGHS FOR TODAY BASICALLY BACK INTO THE LOW 50S...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS FAILING TO CRACK 50...ESPECIALLY
ON THE RIDGES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 40S...BUT CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM GOING TOO MUCH LOWER THAN HIGHS
TODAY. ON FRIDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHTLY MILDER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S.
STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT
LOWER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEAMPLIFYING OF THE
INITIAL BLOCKY PATTERN AS A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS OVER THE CONUS
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST. THE MID ATLANTIC ONE WILL LOSE
ITS INFLUENCE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS IT
STARTS TO MOVE OFF SHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW HEIGHT RISES AND RIDGING
TO SPREAD INTO THE BLUEGRASS STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR PART OF THE REGION BY ADDITIONAL
TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE AREA
PRIMED FOR WEAK SHORT WAVES TO PASS OVERHEAD IN FAIRLY FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE GREAT
LAKES TROUGH THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND WILL BE DAMPENED OUT VIA
THE BLEND FOR GRIDDED FORECAST PURPOSES. MEANWHILE...FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND OPEN UP ALLOWING BITS OF
ITS ENERGY TO SLIP EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE NOW WEAKENING SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS ACTION
IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THAT IT EVENTUALLY RESULTS IN THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF KENTUCKY AND MORE BOUTS OF
ENERGY MOVING OVER OUR CWA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE PATTERN THEN
CONTINUES ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ENDING UP
WITH TROUGHING NORTH OF THE AREA AND FLATTER...MORE ZONAL...
HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH LIMITED PACKETS OF ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN THE COMPLICATIONS OF THIS EVOLVING
PATTERN WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AS THE STACKED LOW TO OUR EAST LOSES
ITS INFLUENCE. AS PART OF THIS PROCESS...A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
PASSES THROUGH KENTUCKY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INITIALLY AND THEN THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES
THAT AFTERNOON. IN FACT...ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD BECOME STRONG GIVEN MODERATE CAPE...LOW
LIS...AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIP
SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
HANG UP OVER EAST KENTUCKY INTO THE START THE NEW WEEK. WITH
THIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED. ON SUNDAY
THE FRONT AND PCPN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS
OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DO BETTER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH WITH MID AND
UPPER 70S ANTICIPATED. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FUEL THE
INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH ANY
SHOWERS DURING THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AS FOR THE CR INIT...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES
EACH NIGHT ANTICIPATING MINIMAL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES ASIDE
FROM SATURDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. ALSO TWEAKED THE POPS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE LATEST
ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
CIGS ARE STARTING TO COME DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN SHOWERS
SPREAD INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MID MORNING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
WAVE WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND CIGS AGAIN DROPPING BACK TO
MVFR. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
601 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. RED FLAG WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY...
CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS OF 850HPA FIELDS SHOW A TIGHT GRADIENT OF
WARMING TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
VORT MAX HAS DROPPED ACROSS MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...AND IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN. THE COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED
RAIN SHOWERS IS LIMITED AND THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 5KFT WILL
LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THIS WAVE TO PRODUCE
THUNDER. LIGHTNING HAS ACCOMPANIED THE FAST MOVING VORT MAX
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. HAVE INTRODUCED
THUNDER TO THE MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE WAVE EXITS THE REGION TO
THE SOUTH BY THE NOON HOUR...GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS AND RAPIDLY FALLING RH
VALUES. THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WITH 850HPA TEMPS IN THE TEENS...WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES
SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH
LOCATIONS IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND
25MPH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 25% WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AS COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT...THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO
CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE BEHAVIOR.
HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND
SPEEDS IN THE MIXED LAYER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
NAM/SREF/GFS ARE INDICATING MUCAPE OF UP TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OR
MORE. THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LOW...THOUGH...BECAUSE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY TRAIL
WELL BEHIND THE INSTABILITY AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT....LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE GUSTY NW
FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGHT
DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY...PROVIDING SUNNY
AND SEASONALLY NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
A STACKED LOW MIGHT LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT
WEEK...STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT MAY RESULT IN A FEW
DAYS OF COOL EASTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COULD
LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
THE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF -SHRA AND CEILINGS AROUND 8 TO 10 KFT THIS MORNING...BUT
CLEAR SKIES WILL RETURN LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVLOP BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 73 51 81 45 / 20 0 20 30
INL 83 52 80 39 / 20 0 20 10
BRD 81 53 85 47 / 10 0 20 20
HYR 71 50 81 47 / 20 0 10 40
ASX 70 49 82 46 / 10 0 10 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
747 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MOTHERS DAY LOOKS
MAINLY DRY WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS EXIT THE SW MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BULK OF AREA
STAYING DRY THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MAIN FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS
THIS AFTN SHOULD BE OVER WESTERN 1/3 OF CENTRAL PA WITH LOWER PCPN
PROBS IN THE EAST. THE MAX PCPN PROBS/HIGHEST POPS WILL FLIP TO
THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INCREASES TO THE NORTH OF DEEP CLOSED LOW REACHING THE NC/VA COAST
BY 12Z FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE FILLING AND EVENTUALLY GETTING KICKED OUT
TO SEA BY ANOTHER ANOMALOUS TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER SERN CANADA ON
SAT. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE POINTING TOWARD AN AREA OF STEADY
MODERATE RAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION GIVEN
COLD TEMPS ALOFT/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. AN INCREASE IN ATLC
ONSHORE FLOW VIA ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS AT 850MB WILL ALSO BE IN
PLACE. PCPN INTENSITY SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE INTO SATURDAY AS
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
(DUE TO TIME OF DAY) WHICH SHOULD KEEP QPF AMTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ISOLD DIURNAL SHOWERS REMAIN
A LOW PROB OVER THE NORTHERN PA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY RETURNS NWD AS A WARM FRONT WITH WARMER AIR AND RISK
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE LOW CIGS CAUSED THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OVR CENTRAL PA. AT 12Z...STRATUS COVERS ALL
OF CENTRAL PA WITH CIGS BTWN 500 AND 1500 FT.
IMPROVING CONDS INDICATED BY ALL MDL DATA LATER TODAY...AS
DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING CAUSE CIGS TO RISE. BY
AFTN...LATEST HRRR AND SREF SUPPORT LIKELY VFR CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PA AND POSSIBLE VFR CONDS AT KBFD/KMDT/KLNS.
HOWEVER...SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF
VIS REDUCTION IN THOSE AREAS.
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY CAUSE CIGS TO
FALL AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CONDS BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN LIKELY. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT NIGHT.
SAT...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. EVENING SHRA POSS.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
700 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MOTHERS DAY LOOKS
MAINLY DRY WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS EXIT THE SW MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BULK OF AREA
STAYING DRY THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MAIN FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS
THIS AFTN SHOULD BE OVER WESTERN 1/3 OF CENTRAL PA WITH LOWER PCPN
PROBS IN THE EAST. THE MAX PCPN PROBS/HIGHEST POPS WILL FLIP TO
THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INCREASES TO THE NORTH OF DEEP CLOSED LOW REACHING THE NC/VA COAST
BY 12Z FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE FILLING AND EVENTUALLY GETTING KICKED OUT
TO SEA BY ANOTHER ANOMALOUS TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER SERN CANADA ON
SAT. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE POINTING TOWARD AN AREA OF STEADY
MODERATE RAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION GIVEN
COLD TEMPS ALOFT/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. AN INCREASE IN ATLC
ONSHORE FLOW VIA ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS AT 850MB WILL ALSO BE IN
PLACE. PCPN INTENSITY SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE INTO SATURDAY AS
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
(DUE TO TIME OF DAY) WHICH SHOULD KEEP QPF AMTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ISOLD DIURNAL SHOWERS REMAIN
A LOW PROB OVER THE NORTHERN PA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY RETURNS NWD AS A WARM FRONT WITH WARMER AIR AND RISK
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA WILL BRING A FEW
LINGERING -SHRA TO KJST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE LOW CIGS CAUSED THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. AT 09Z...STRATUS COVERS ALL OF CENTRAL PA WITH CIGS BTWN 500
AND 1000 FT.
IMPROVING CONDS INDICATED BY ALL MDL DATA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...AS DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING CAUSE CIGS TO RISE.
BY AFTN...LATEST HRRR AND SREF SUPPORT LIKELY VFR CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PA AND POSSIBLE VFR CONDS AT KBFD/KMDT/KLNS.
HOWEVER...SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF VIS
REDUCTION IN THOSE AREAS.
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY CAUSE CIGS TO
FALL AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CONDS BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN LIKELY. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT NIGHT.
SAT...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. EVENING SHRA POSS.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1041 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL
USHER IN MORE COOL AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES DOWN
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THEN MOVES AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH ON MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EXPANDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...CENTER OF 500MB LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED INVOF THE
KY/VA/TN INTERSECTION...AND IS STILL PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA THIS AFTERNOON. ONE OF THE VORT LOBES
CIRCLING THE LOW PRODUCED SHOWERS OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING SO FAR...BUT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST THE SHOWERS
ARE FOLLOWING SUIT. A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS OVER EAST TN AND THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE NC MTNS
AND THEN INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND WRN UPSTATE LATER
THIS AFTN. HRRR AND OTHER CAMS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SCT SHRA/TSRA
CONCENTRATING IN THE LATTER AREAS DURING PEAK HEATING. I REVISED
POP TRENDS INTO TONIGHT ACCORDINGLY.
NAM INDICATES THAT MIXED LAYER WILL LIKELY EXCEED 10 KFT ACROSS
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEP MIXING COMBINED WITH
A 4 TO 5 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS BY MID
MORNING...REMAINING INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MTNS. 25-30
KT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MTNS TODAY. I WILL INCLUDE A
HEADLINE FOR CAUTION ON MTN LAKES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CAMS TO THE SPECTRAL
INDICATE THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY...MTNS...AND I-40 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NAM
SHOWS A FIELD OF 300-500 J/KG CAPE DEVELOPING DURING THE HEAT
OF THE AFTERNOON...YIELDING SMALL HAIL PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH MID 50S NEAR KAVL TO LOW TO MID 60S ALONG AND
EAST OF I-85.
TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. OMEGA BLOCK WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CONUS AS THE
EASTERN CLOSED LOW LIFTS NORTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE
MTNS AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE UPPER LOW IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY ON FRIDAY THAT THE MID LEVEL COOL POOL WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHILE WEAK VORT CENTERS DROP DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS....WHILE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FORCE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
OUT...THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN A REBOUND AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...AND THEN GET
BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
PRECIP ENCROACHING ON THE NRN ZONES ON SATURDAY AND THIS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON OUR NRN FRINGES BASED ON NEIGHBORING FCSTS. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL START CREEPING UP FROM THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT SAGS
DOWN TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE A CHANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT FAVORS A RETURN TO SOMETHING MORE
TYPICAL OF MID/LATE SPRING. THE DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST
SHOULD LIFT OUT ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE TO MOVE IN FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HELP LIFT A
SURFACE BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND SET THE
STAGE FOR TEMPS TO RETURN TO SOMETHING ON THE ORDER OF FIVE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FROM THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK ONWARD...THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE UNDER A WSW OR NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THAT WILL PROVIDE FOR RETURN MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS THE EXTENT OF ANY DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CONVECTION FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THE FCST CONTINUES TO REFLECT
A MORE ECMWF-LIKE SOLUTION WITH THE PRECIP CHANCE OVER THE MTNS...
WHILE THE GFS HAS A CHANCE ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE MID LEVELS...THE CORE OF
A CLOSED LOW WILL PASS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON...PASSING EAST THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THIS
MORNING...SCT SHRAS WILL REMAIN NEAR KHKY AND KCLT DURING THE EARLY
DAYLIGHT HOURS. AT THE SFC...THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE NC OUTERBANKS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE THE REGION
WITH NW WINDS AND DEEP MIXING. MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM AS DEEP AS 10
KFT APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL FEATURE GUSTS FOR ALL
SITES 3 TO 4 HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL
FORCING MAY YIELD SCT SHRAS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A PROB30 OR TEMPO. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
WEAKEN TO 6 TO 10 KTS BETWEEN 23Z TO 2Z.
AT KAVL...NNW WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS INTO THE MID 20S KTS. SCT SHRAS MAY OCCASIONALLY PASS
OVER THE TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR VIS AND CEILINGS.
GUSTY NNW WINDS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MID EVENING...THEN SETTLE TO
10KTS TO 14 KTS BY 3Z.
OUTLOOK...THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY LINGER BRINGING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC
SITES. DRY HIGH PRES RETURNS SATURDAY...WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THRU SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 82%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
740 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING TO ALONG THE NC/VA COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING....THEN TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST OF PA/NY BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT THURSDAY...
GETTING SOME CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE
PIEDMONT...WITH SBCAPES OF 100-200 J/KG. PER HRRR ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING OVER THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF
VA/NC.
PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION...
VERY WET SCENARIO SHAPING UP TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALREADY SEEING
RAIN EXPANDING ACROSS THE NW NC PIEDMONT INTO THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT OF VA AT 320 AM.
QUESTION TODAY IS NOT IF IT IS GOING TO RAIN...IT IS WHERE WILL AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAINS SET UP...AND HOW HEAVY WILL THE RAIN BE...IN TERMS
OF AMOUNTS AND MOVEMENT. MODELS SEEM TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A
CORRIDOR OF STRONG LOW LVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH PERIODS OF
UPPER DIFLUENCE FAVOR A SE WV TO SOUTHSIDE VA REGION FOR STEADIER
RAINS...HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A ROANOKE TO SOUTH
BOSTON LINE. STILL IFFY AS TO HOW MUCH FALLS AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT.
AT THE MOMENT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES...THOUGH AM
CONCERNED SINCE SOME OF THE RIVERS IN THE PIEDMONT HAVE BEEN RUNNING
HIGH...WITH SOUTH BOSTON ALONG THE DAN RIVER STILL ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE...THAT SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR AGAIN LATER TODAY INTO
FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL HIT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
POTENTIAL STREAM OR RIVER FLOODING. FORECAST RAINFALL TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO JUST OVER AN INCH FROM LEWISBURG WV SOUTHEAST
TO DANVILLE AND POINTS NORTHEAST TO LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER
THE NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS.
AS FAR AS CONVECTION/THUNDER GOES...IT APPEARS CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER SFC TEMPS WILL LIMIT LOW LVL LAPSE RATES AND THERMODYNAMIC
INSTABILITY...THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE THERE ALONG WITH
COOLER AIR ALOFT THAT POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL MAY EXIST WITH
ISOLATED LIGHTNING. THE CONFIDENCE IN HAVING THIS IN THE FORECAST IS
LOW...THINKING ANY THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED AND ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER WILL BE SOUTH AND WELL EAST OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
WE ARE GOING TO SEE SHOWERS/RAIN WORK IN A NW TO SE PATTERN THEN
PIVOT TO AN EAST-WEST AXIS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST OF US TONIGHT...THE SHOWERS SHOULD SPIN AROUND TO
MORE A N-S AXIS WITH BANDS SETTING UP ALONG AND WEST OF A BUCKINGHAM
TO BOONE LINE BY EVENING WHILE HEAVIER SHOWERS WORK EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP POPS HIGH THOUGH QPF WILL BE
LOW...GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
NEEDLESS TO SAY IT WILL BE COOL TODAY WITH POTENTIAL RECORD COOL
HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING BROKEN MAINLY AT BLUEFIELD...BLACKSBURG AND
ROANOKE. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WEST...TO MID TO UPPER 50S EAST.
WITH CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD BE SLOW TO FALL..WITH
MIXING OCCURRING AS SFC LOW OFF THE COAST SHIFTS NORTH. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE NC MTNS/FAR SW VA INTO
SE WV...TO MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD
AND WEAKEN DURING FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD
SHOULD DRIFT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
SURFACE LOW THAT IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE MID-
ATLANTIC. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, 500 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW DEPARTS AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
HEADS EASTWARD. LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT, BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL NOT LAST LONG IN THE MOUNTAINS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY,
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHER POPS WERE
INSERTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE COLD FRONT STALLING OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY, BUT THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS CARRIES LOWER QPF THAN THE ECMWF. WHILE
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LOWER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES,
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD TRUMP THESE VARIABLES TO ALLOW A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CAPE,
SO THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. IF DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHICAL
EFFECTS CAN OVERCOME THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY, THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DRIFTS EAST IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AS FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY EVOLVES INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.
A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL DROP SOUTH SUNDAY INTO OUR AREA
AND STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING AS A
WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING OR
AMOUNTS ATTM. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 77 EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY...OUR AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH AND COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST IN
THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY...THEN
MODERATE INTO MIDWEEK. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOL DOWN IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LOOKING AT POOR FLYING WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW
PIVOTS FROM ERN KY TO THE VA TIDEWATER THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM LWB-DAN AND NORTHEAST TO
LYH. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER BUT OVERALL THREAT WILL STAY
SOUTHEAST OF DANVILLE/LYH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WITH ANY DRYING...RAINFALL ENDING TRENDS...EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO
DROP BELOW 1KFT AND 3-4SM. THIS IS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT
BLF/LWB/BCB.
CONFIDENCE IN SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS PERIOD IS HIGH.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY. MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. SOME
VFR IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE BETTER ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE REACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORE SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY.
MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THOUGH WARM
FRONT MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A SEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY APPROACH BREAK THE
RECORD FOR COOLEST HIGHS FOR MAY 5TH. BELOW ARE THE CURRENT
RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 5TH.
THURSDAY 05/05/2016
SITE LOMAX YEAR
KBLF 50 1988
KDAN 51 1994
KLYH 51 1908
KROA 52 1917
KRNK 48 1994
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/WP
CLIMATE...CF/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1046 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWER CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW
HEADS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:26 AM PDT THURSDAY...DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING
AS A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ADVECTS INLAND. MEANWHILE, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY REGION.
WITH THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY HAVE INCREASED COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LATEST
FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INLAND AREAS TODAY, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED
FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT OUT AND WILL MAKE NEEDED
ADJUSTMENTS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BLOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:43 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE RADAR IS
QUIET AT THIS HOUR BUT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION
WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES MILD IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
UPPER LOW WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST WILL HEAD TOWARDS POINT
CONCEPTION BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS DIFFLUENT REGION
ALOFT...INCREASING PVA AND SOME COLD AIR INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROMOTE SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST MESOSCALE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN SHOWERS STARTING TO FIRE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SAN BENITO AND SANTA CLARA COUNTY AND THEN ROTATING
OVER SOME OF THE MORE POPULATED SECTIONS AROUND THE BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. PIN-POINTING PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT BUT CONFIDENCE STARTING TO INCREASE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME
ACTION THIS AFTERNOON WHEN ALL THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE THRESHOLDS TO BE MET BUT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET BUT SHOWER THREAT
REMAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT AS THE
LOW SLOWLY DIVES SOUTHWARD.
CONTINUED COOL ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW HEADS TOWARDS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME STRATIFORM LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES NEED TO
STAY IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY BUT CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW FINALLY EJECTS.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD END BY SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING. THEN A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND DEVELOPS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. CHAOTIC
SKIES VISIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT CLOUD
DECKS RANGING FROM 1500-6000 FT BRINGING MIXED BAG OF VFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS. UNSTABLE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW IS ALSO BRINGING HIT OR MISS RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PREDOMINATELY THE NORTH AND EAST BAY... WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POPPING UP PREDOMINATELY AROUND THE EAST BAY
AND NAPA COUNTY SO FAR THIS MORN. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY... SO HAVE LEFT IN VCSH THROUGHOUT ALL TAFS.
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS BUT VCTS MAY BRING GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS. INTERMITTENT MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY BUT
WITH MARGINALLY RISING CIGS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...PREDOMINATELY VFR BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE
WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO 2500-3000 FT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY. VCSH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONSHORE WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... PREDOMINATELY VFR TODAY BECOMING MVFR TO
IFR OVERNIGHT. VCSH POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONSHORE WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS. UP VALLEY WINDS UP TO 15 KT FOR KSNS
EARLY TOMORROW.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:38 AM PDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA
WILL BRING MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF
PT REYES AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ELSEWHERE. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FROM SQUARED SEAS WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
932 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWER CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW
HEADS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:26 AM PDT THURSDAY...DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING
AS A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ADVECTS INLAND. MEANWHILE, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY REGION.
WITH THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY HAVE INCREASED COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LATEST
FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INLAND AREAS TODAY, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED
FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT OUT AND WILL MAKE NEEDED
ADJUSTMENTS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BLOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:43 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE RADAR IS
QUIET AT THIS HOUR BUT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION
WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES MILD IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
UPPER LOW WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST WILL HEAD TOWARDS POINT
CONCEPTION BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS DIFFLUENT REGION
ALOFT...INCREASING PVA AND SOME COLD AIR INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROMOTE SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST MESOSCALE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN SHOWERS STARTING TO FIRE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SAN BENITO AND SANTA CLARA COUNTY AND THEN ROTATING
OVER SOME OF THE MORE POPULATED SECTIONS AROUND THE BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. PIN-POINTING PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT BUT CONFIDENCE STARTING TO INCREASE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME
ACTION THIS AFTERNOON WHEN ALL THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE THRESHOLDS TO BE MET BUT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET BUT SHOWER THREAT
REMAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT AS THE
LOW SLOWLY DIVES SOUTHWARD.
CONTINUED COOL ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW HEADS TOWARDS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME STRATIFORM LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES NEED TO
STAY IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY BUT CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW FINALLY EJECTS.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD END BY SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING. THEN A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND DEVELOPS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 04:28 AM PDT THURSDAY...NEARBY UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THAT BEING
SAID...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXPECTING A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS
WITH CIGS GENERALLY 2-4K FT. ADDITIONALLY...NAILING DOWN PRECIP IS
TRICKY SO IT/S BEST COVERED BY VCSH. BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OVERALL CONF IS LOW.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS FOR THE MOST PART...BUT OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. VICINITY SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONF IS LOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN
AND MAY HIT 10 KT LATER TODAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...SIMILAR TO TERMINALS UP NORTH...MOSTLY VFR
AT THIS POINT...BUT MAY MIX WITH MVFR CIGS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:26 AM PDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
AREA WILL BRING MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE OUTER WATERS NORTH
OF PT REYES AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ELSEWHERE. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FROM SQUARED SEAS WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
341 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CWA PROVIDING FULL SUNSHINE...LIGHT
WINDS AND PLEASANT SPRING TEMPERATURES. 2 PM READINGS WERE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE MID LEVELS HAS
CAUSED A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY FROM EASTERN MN
INTO CENTRAL IA AND NORTH CENTRAL MO. THIS HAS PRETTY MUCH STAYED
JUST WEST OF THE DVN CWA AS THE CLOUDS DRIFT SOUTHWARD. THERE HAS
EVEN BEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND IN FAR WESTERN
WI AND THE EAST METRO OF THE TWIN CITIES. THESE SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE STRONGER ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE
GREAT PLAINS...WITH SOME LOWER 90S IN ND AND MANITOBA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THERE WAS 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30
MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER
40S. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWERS TO REMAIN IN WISCONSIN WHERE THE BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL EXIST. BELIEVE THE HRRR IS OVERDOING THE SHOWERS IN THE DVN CWA
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES. WON`T MENTION IN THE GRIDS
BUT SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR.
FRIDAY...WARM DAY WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WIND...850 MB TEMPERATURES OF +15 TO 16C AND A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
SUPPORT LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SPOTS
MAY MANAGE TO SEE 85 DEGREES CONSIDERING WE SHOULD HAVE SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
SATURDAY...EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN AND
POINTS TO THE E/NE. AS A RESULT...LIFT OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL
BE WEAK AND PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...POPS ARE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS LESS
THAN A TENTH FOR MOST AREAS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
SOUTHERN CWA BY THE MID TO LATE AFTN.
THUNDERSTORM DETAILS...THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN
THE DVN CWA ARE IN THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...TO
THE WEST OF GALESBURG...WHERE MUCAPES MAY EXCEED 1500 J/KG AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR IS NEAR 45 KTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SATURDAY/S COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS IT IS FORCED BY A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE
WEST-CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGHEST
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS 850MB WV TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.25 INCHES TO THE
ESE OF A COHERENT 850MB LOW MOVING INTO E NEBRASKA.
RAIN POTENTIAL...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CPC 3-7 DAY HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAS NOW SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE EAST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE PWATS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BECOME ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH...REMAINING BELOW 1 STANDARD DEVIATION...THE SYSTEM IS A SLOW
MOVER AND SHOWS A SOLID MOISTURE CONNECTION WITH THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...VIA 850 WV TRANSPORT VECTORS.
THE WPC 5-7 DAY QPF SUPPORTS CPC/S OUTLOOK...PAINTING A GENERAL 1 TO
3 INCHES ALONG WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS UP AND THE 850MB LOW
TRACKS...FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH IOWA AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...TOO EARLY TO FORECAST WITH MUCH DETAIL.
HOWEVER...SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND THE THREAT FOR RAIN TRANSLATES INTO NO BIG
WARM UPS WITH AVG HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S.
WEDNESDAY...SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED STORM. UTTECH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS AROUND
10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
243 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
SATURDAY-MONDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROGRESSING OVER MID-AMERICA
WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGH ALONG WITH THE
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS WILL HELP BOOST DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE 1ST OF A COUPLE SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH BY
AFTERNOON...DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW AND SHARPENING A DRYLINE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE FRONT LIKELY STALLING
OVER FAR NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NE BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...STUNTED BY PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THINKING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REACHING THE 50S ARE
REASONABLE...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS. THINKING STORM
INITIATION IS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT IN THE VICINITY OF
NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLY WESTERN KS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY PROBABLY
CONGEALING INTO A COMPLEX OR TWO AS IT PROGRESSES EAST/SOUTHEAST
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND TO WANE
WITH EASTERN EXTENT AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE 2ND IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST
DRYLINE SHOULD MIX A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
(ALTHOUGH NAM IS QUITE A BIT FURTHEST WEST)...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS LIKELY INCREASING TO AT LEAST NEAR 60F BY PEAK HEATING
SUNDAY. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF GFS/ECMWF COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOWER/FURTHER WEST NAM. THE ASSOCIATED
INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH CONTINUED NEAR 50 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH INITIATION PROBABLY
SOMEWHERE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF I-135/35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DETAILS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF VARIOUS FEATURES AND
ORIENTATION AND MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR VALUES...ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE QUALITY REMAIN IN QUESTION...BUT OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS
DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. AS THINGS
CURRENTLY STAND...THINKING HIGHEST PROBABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS...WITH MAIN THREATS LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER...IF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY INCREASES...TORNADO THREAT WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. STAY TUNED.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY EJECT NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS
MONDAY...PUSHING THE WARM SECTOR MAINLY EAST OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS MAY STILL BE UNDER THE
GUN FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS COULD ARRIVE FOR MAINLY FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLES
REGARDING LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AT MIDDAY...WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TO OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS BY 12Z FRIDAY.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A LEE
TROUGH AXIS WILL STEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY
FRIDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING INCREASE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 51 84 60 85 / 0 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 51 85 61 85 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 51 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 10
ELDORADO 51 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 51 83 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 53 86 60 84 / 0 0 10 20
GREAT BEND 53 87 61 84 / 0 0 0 20
SALINA 50 84 60 85 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 50 85 61 85 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 49 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 48 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 48 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 48 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...JMC
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
213 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu May 5 2016
Temperatures were rising faster than the forecast T curve early
this morning, and a change to the Experimental HRRR appears to
have captures the temperature forecast a little better in the
midday. It may be a couple of degrees overdone as it is warmer
than all the other guidance/blends, however with it being early
May now the warming can last later in the day. The forecast high
was generally bumped about 3 degrees over the area. The surface
high will continue to give way to gradual troughing over eastern
Colorado and the extreme western counties overnight. Much more
breezy conditions to marginally windy conditions can be expected
Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu May 5 2016
Continued focus exists on the weekend for severe weather
potential. Saturday and Sunday present somewhat different pattern
recognition setups with marginal shear on Saturday, increasing by
Sunday as the upper jet advances into the central High Plains.
CAPES appear moderate on Saturday, and a few hail and wind
producing severe storms could develop near the dryline in this
marginal shear environment. The ECMWF is the model that pushes the
dryline almost out of our forecast area on Sunday afternoon
before convection initiation, while the GFS was far more emphatic
with convection occurring farther west. Many characteristics of
the mesoscale are as of yet unknown, however thunderstorms are
probable this weekend. The best chance for the most widespread
severe and especially tornadic threat would be more likely farther
north where the models are in agreement with placement of the warm
front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 5 2016
VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period, with broad
surface high pressure dominating the region for Today. The surface
pressure pattern adjusts on Friday as a trough over eastern Colorado
develops, increasing the gradient. Therefore, southerly surface
winds should increase beginning around mid morning with gusts
approaching 30 knots through the day Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 54 86 59 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 86 52 88 57 / 0 0 10 10
EHA 87 50 85 55 / 0 0 10 10
LBL 86 52 87 57 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 83 54 87 60 / 0 0 10 10
P28 83 54 86 60 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
353 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
WV SAT AND HRRR HAS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW HAS
PROGRESSED SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN NC AND NW SC. OVERALL THE MESO
MODELS AND MORE SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
PROGRESSION. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO
THE STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AS WE HAVE SEEN BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. THESE LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH THE ALREADY
REASONABLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OVERALL COVERAGE HAS BEEN
SCATTERED WITH BETTER COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. RIGHT NOW
MODELS DO WANT TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN THE FAR EAST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER BIGGEST QUESTION WOULD BE HOW MUCH
COVERAGE DO WE SEE. RIGHT NOW OPTED TO LOWER POPS GIVEN SOME OF
THE UNCERTAINTY. THIS UNCERTAINTY COMES WHEN LOOKING UPSTREAM
RADAR COVERAGE IS QUITE LOW COMPARED TO WHAT MAY HAVE BEEN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND CAMS ARE NOT HITTING IT TOO HARD EITHER.
THE OTHER QUESTION WOULD BE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER DO WE SEE
TONIGHT...RIGHT NOW KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGHER IN THE EAST GIVEN THE
BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE. ALSO COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPS AND
FOG POTENTIAL. RIGHT NOW WILL ADD SOME PATCHY DEEPER VALLEY FOG
AND JUST MINOR TEMP SPLIT GIVEN THE CLOUD UNCERTAINTY.
THIS UPPER LOW IS FAIRLY SLOW TO MOVE EAST...AS A OMEGA BLOCK
PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS. THEREFORE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF. THAT SAID THERE WAS A NEED FOR SHOWERS IN THE FAR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FOR FRIDAY GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESS OF VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW AND CONTINUED PVA/SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTH. NOW FRIDAY NIGHT
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS UPPER LOW/OMEGA BLOCK BREAK DOWN
AND PROGRESS EAST. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OR WAVE MAY
BRING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE MOST SPOTS SHOULD DRY OUT AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN
DEAMPLIFYING OVER THE WEEKEND AND EVOLVING TO MORE OR LESS A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MEANDERING OF
THE APPALACHIANS AND THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
FROM THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAY REGION INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
THEN INTO THE CANADIAN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
APPALACHIAN REGION FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BOUNDARY STALLING OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE OHIO OR
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ON ISENTROPIC LIFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON SATURDAY. A
LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY...WITH MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR TO LESSEN ON
SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MEANWHILE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
LOW MEANDERING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS INTO THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS. IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEVELOPING LOW AND HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THE
STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT ON MONDAY. THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TRACK FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AT MIDWEEK AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. MODEL AGREEMENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL IN THESE DETAILS DIMINISHES GREATLY BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ALSO CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
MODEL BLEND AND CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE FOR ANOTHER PEAK IN
CONVECTION CHANCES FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY INTO THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME A CONCERN
IN LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR TO START
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER ANTICIPATED. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
CIGS ARE IN THE VFR TO MVFR RANGE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THE MVFR
SITES HAVE BEEN IN FLUX. THAT SAID OVERALL SYNOPTICALLY WE ARE
SEEING A UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND NOW IT
HAS SHIFT SE INTO EASTERN TN THIS AFTERNOON. THE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER HAVE LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY AT
JKL...LOZ...AND SME. HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND TRACK INTO THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST. OVERALL EXPECTING LOW VFR
TO BE PREDOMINATE CIGS...BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY
AND UPSLOPE MAY HELP KEEP STRATO CU GOING...HOWEVER IF WE SEE
GREATER REDUCTIONS FOG CONCERNS WOULD NEED TO BE EVALUATED
PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEY TAF SITES. OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...BUT SOME GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON MORE
PAST THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
325 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
WV SAT AND HRRR HAS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW HAS
PROGRESSED SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN NC AND NW SC. OVERALL THE MESO
MODELS AND MORE SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
PROGRESSION. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO
THE STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AS WE HAVE SEEN BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. THESE LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH THE ALREADY
REASONABLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OVERALL COVERAGE HAS BEEN
SCATTERED WITH BETTER COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. RIGHT NOW
MODELS DO WANT TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN THE FAR EAST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER BIGGEST QUESTION WOULD BE HOW MUCH
COVERAGE DO WE SEE. RIGHT NOW OPTED TO LOWER POPS GIVEN SOME OF
THE UNCERTAINTY. THIS UNCERTAINTY COMES WHEN LOOKING UPSTREAM
RADAR COVERAGE IS QUITE LOW COMPARED TO WHAT MAY HAVE BEEN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND CAMS ARE NOT HITTING IT TOO HARD EITHER.
THE OTHER QUESTION WOULD BE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER DO WE SEE
TONIGHT...RIGHT NOW KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGHER IN THE EAST GIVEN THE
BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE. ALSO COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPS AND
FOG POTENTIAL. RIGHT NOW WILL ADD SOME PATCHY DEEPER VALLEY FOG
AND JUST MINOR TEMP SPLIT GIVEN THE CLOUD UNCERTAINTY.
THIS UPPER LOW IS FAIRLY SLOW TO MOVE EAST...AS A OMEGA BLOCK
PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS. THEREFORE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF. THAT SAID THERE WAS A NEED FOR SHOWERS IN THE FAR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FOR FRIDAY GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESS OF VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW AND CONTINUED PVA/SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTH. NOW FRIDAY NIGHT
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS UPPER LOW/OMEGA BLOCK BREAK DOWN
AND PROGRESS EAST. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OR WAVE MAY
BRING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE MOST SPOTS SHOULD DRY OUT AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
AVAILABLE SHORTLY...
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
CIGS ARE IN THE VFR TO MVFR RANGE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THE MVFR
SITES HAVE BEEN IN FLUX. THAT SAID OVERALL SYNOPTICALLY WE ARE
SEEING A UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND NOW IT
HAS SHIFT SE INTO EASTERN TN THIS AFTERNOON. THE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER HAVE LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY AT
JKL...LOZ...AND SME. HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND TRACK INTO THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST. OVERALL EXPECTING LOW VFR
TO BE PREDOMINATE CIGS...BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY
AND UPSLOPE MAY HELP KEEP STRATO CU GOING...HOWEVER IF WE SEE
GREATER REDUCTIONS FOG CONCERNS WOULD NEED TO BE EVALUATED
PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEY TAF SITES. OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...BUT SOME GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON MORE
PAST THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
130 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
BIGGEST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS IN THE CENTER PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR
DOES HAVE SOME HINT AT THIS OTHERWISE SEEMS LIKE CAMS HAVE BEEN A
BIT BEHIND ON THIS THOUGHT. THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY DO TO SOME
BREAKS IN SKY COVER SEEN ON VIS SAT AND VISUALLY HERE AT
JKL...THIS HAS LEAD TO STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT WILL
TEAM UP WITH ALREADY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOST OF THIS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY LIGHTNING WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE GIVEN TREND DID HAVE TO
REEVALUATE AND UPDATE THE HOURLY POP GRIDS TO DEAL WITH LATEST
OBS...REMOTE SENSING DATA...AND CAM TRENDS. OTHERWISE JUST MORE
MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPS...DEWS...AND WINDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE LOW CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING
BASED ON HRRR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WHILE IT WRAPS UP ACROSS
THE REGION DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS RESIDES GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY BASED OFF COMPOSITE WSR-88D RADAR
DATA. THAT SAID THESE SHOWERS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN TN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS THESE SHOWERS SLIDE OUT MORE SHOWERS
WILL SLIDE IN FROM WEST VA. THESE LOOK TO MAINLY AFFECT THE FAR
EAST AND NORTHEAST IN TERMS OF COVERAGE. THIS THINKING SEEMS TO
BE REASONABLE BASED ON THE CAMS...SPC SSEO...AND RADAR TRENDS.
GIVEN THE CURRENT SETUP LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEEING ANY THUNDER TODAY
AND THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST. OVERALL
TEMPS ARE ON TRACK AND COULD BE LOOKING AT MINIMUM HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD TODAY WHICH IS 52 DEGREES AT JKL BACK IN 2013.
UPDATED POPS/TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND AS THEY WORK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT MOST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE INCREASED POPS AREAWIDE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AS THIS VORT MAX DROPS SOUTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN SHOWERS
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS
PUSH IN FROM THE EAST. BLACK MOUNTAIN HAS DROPPED OFF TO 32
DEGREES...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE SEEN THERE.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE ALL RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO.
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS DRY AS ALL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A VORT MAX IS
DROPPING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA...INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND LIKELY CLIP THE COUNTIES IN THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY...OR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS AS THIS ACTIVITY DROPS SOUTH...BUT MAY DECIDE TO GO UP
TO CATEGORICAL IF SHOWERS HOLD TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE A DAMP MORNING FOR THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.
AS THE VORT MAX EXITS SOUTH THIS MORNING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WE MAY SEE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS DEVELOP
ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE DEPARTING VORT MAX. WITH 850MB TEMPS
GETTING CLOSE TO -1C THIS MORNING...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
SNOW FLAKES ON BLACK MOUNTAIN. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD MAINLY
IMPACT SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH BY
MIDDAY.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM OHIO. THIS TIME AROUND...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SET TO BE IMPACTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE
GONE MUCH HIGHER WITH POPS AS MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD BE
ABUNDANT. WE ALSO HAVE UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WHILE MODELS HAD INDICATED SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
YESTERDAY...TODAYS RUNS HAVE LOOKED MUCH LESS FAVORABLE...SO
DESPITE THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS...WILL MAINTAIN NO THUNDER. IF WE
WERE TO GET SOME STORMS...HAIL WOULD BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS. BY TONIGHT...THE WAVE WILL EXIT
SOUTH...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME
LOW POPS FOR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. FINALLY...ON
FRIDAY...ONE LAST WAVE LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH WITH A POSSIBLE UPTICK
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF AROUND 40 THIS MORNING...HAVE CUT BACK
HIGHS FOR TODAY BASICALLY BACK INTO THE LOW 50S...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS FAILING TO CRACK 50...ESPECIALLY
ON THE RIDGES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 40S...BUT CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM GOING TOO MUCH LOWER THAN HIGHS
TODAY. ON FRIDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHTLY MILDER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S.
STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT
LOWER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEAMPLIFYING OF THE
INITIAL BLOCKY PATTERN AS A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS OVER THE CONUS
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST. THE MID ATLANTIC ONE WILL LOSE
ITS INFLUENCE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS IT
STARTS TO MOVE OFF SHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW HEIGHT RISES AND RIDGING
TO SPREAD INTO THE BLUEGRASS STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR PART OF THE REGION BY ADDITIONAL
TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE AREA
PRIMED FOR WEAK SHORT WAVES TO PASS OVERHEAD IN FAIRLY FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE GREAT
LAKES TROUGH THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND WILL BE DAMPENED OUT VIA
THE BLEND FOR GRIDDED FORECAST PURPOSES. MEANWHILE...FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND OPEN UP ALLOWING BITS OF
ITS ENERGY TO SLIP EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE NOW WEAKENING SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS ACTION
IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THAT IT EVENTUALLY RESULTS IN THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF KENTUCKY AND MORE BOUTS OF
ENERGY MOVING OVER OUR CWA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE PATTERN THEN
CONTINUES ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ENDING UP
WITH TROUGHING NORTH OF THE AREA AND FLATTER...MORE ZONAL...
HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH LIMITED PACKETS OF ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN THE COMPLICATIONS OF THIS EVOLVING
PATTERN WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AS THE STACKED LOW TO OUR EAST LOSES
ITS INFLUENCE. AS PART OF THIS PROCESS...A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
PASSES THROUGH KENTUCKY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INITIALLY AND THEN THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES
THAT AFTERNOON. IN FACT...ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD BECOME STRONG GIVEN MODERATE CAPE...LOW
LIS...AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIP
SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
HANG UP OVER EAST KENTUCKY INTO THE START THE NEW WEEK. WITH
THIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED. ON SUNDAY
THE FRONT AND PCPN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS
OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DO BETTER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH WITH MID AND
UPPER 70S ANTICIPATED. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FUEL THE
INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH ANY
SHOWERS DURING THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AS FOR THE CR INIT...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES
EACH NIGHT ANTICIPATING MINIMAL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES ASIDE
FROM SATURDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. ALSO TWEAKED THE POPS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE LATEST
ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
CIGS ARE IN THE VFR TO MVFR RANGE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THE MVFR
SITES HAVE BEEN IN FLUX. THAT SAID OVERALL SYNOPTICALLY WE ARE
SEEING A UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND NOW IT
HAS SHIFT SE INTO EASTERN TN THIS AFTERNOON. THE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER HAVE LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY AT
JKL...LOZ...AND SME. HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND TRACK INTO THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST. OVERALL EXPECTING LOW VFR
TO BE PRODOMINATE CIGS...BUT OCCATIONAL MVFR NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY
AND UPSLOPE MAY HELP KEEP STRATO CU GOING...HOWEVER IF WE SEE
GREATER REDUCTIONS FOG CONCERNS WOULD NEED TO BE EVALUATED
PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEY TAF SITES. OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...BUT SOME GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON MORE
PAST THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
108 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
BIGGEST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS IN THE CENTER PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR
DOES HAVE SOME HINT AT THIS OTHERWISE SEEMS LIKE CAMS HAVE BEEN A
BIT BEHIND ON THIS THOUGHT. THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY DO TO SOME
BREAKS IN SKY COVER SEEN ON VIS SAT AND VISUALLY HERE AT
JKL...THIS HAS LEAD TO STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT WILL
TEAM UP WITH ALREADY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOST OF THIS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY LIGHTNING WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE GIVEN TREND DID HAVE TO
REEVALUATE AND UPDATE THE HOURLY POP GRIDS TO DEAL WITH LATEST
OBS...REMOTE SENSING DATA...AND CAM TRENDS. OTHERWISE JUST MORE
MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPS...DEWS...AND WINDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE LOW CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING
BASED ON HRRR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WHILE IT WRAPS UP ACROSS
THE REGION DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS RESIDES GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY BASED OFF COMPOSITE WSR-88D RADAR
DATA. THAT SAID THESE SHOWERS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN TN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS THESE SHOWERS SLIDE OUT MORE SHOWERS
WILL SLIDE IN FROM WEST VA. THESE LOOK TO MAINLY AFFECT THE FAR
EAST AND NORTHEAST IN TERMS OF COVERAGE. THIS THINKING SEEMS TO
BE REASONABLE BASED ON THE CAMS...SPC SSEO...AND RADAR TRENDS.
GIVEN THE CURRENT SETUP LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEEING ANY THUNDER TODAY
AND THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST. OVERALL
TEMPS ARE ON TRACK AND COULD BE LOOKING AT MINIMUM HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD TODAY WHICH IS 52 DEGREES AT JKL BACK IN 2013.
UPDATED POPS/TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND AS THEY WORK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT MOST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE INCREASED POPS AREAWIDE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AS THIS VORT MAX DROPS SOUTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN SHOWERS
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS
PUSH IN FROM THE EAST. BLACK MOUNTAIN HAS DROPPED OFF TO 32
DEGREES...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE SEEN THERE.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE ALL RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO.
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS DRY AS ALL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A VORT MAX IS
DROPPING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA...INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND LIKELY CLIP THE COUNTIES IN THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY...OR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS AS THIS ACTIVITY DROPS SOUTH...BUT MAY DECIDE TO GO UP
TO CATEGORICAL IF SHOWERS HOLD TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE A DAMP MORNING FOR THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.
AS THE VORT MAX EXITS SOUTH THIS MORNING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WE MAY SEE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS DEVELOP
ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE DEPARTING VORT MAX. WITH 850MB TEMPS
GETTING CLOSE TO -1C THIS MORNING...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
SNOW FLAKES ON BLACK MOUNTAIN. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD MAINLY
IMPACT SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH BY
MIDDAY.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM OHIO. THIS TIME AROUND...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SET TO BE IMPACTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE
GONE MUCH HIGHER WITH POPS AS MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD BE
ABUNDANT. WE ALSO HAVE UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WHILE MODELS HAD INDICATED SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
YESTERDAY...TODAYS RUNS HAVE LOOKED MUCH LESS FAVORABLE...SO
DESPITE THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS...WILL MAINTAIN NO THUNDER. IF WE
WERE TO GET SOME STORMS...HAIL WOULD BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS. BY TONIGHT...THE WAVE WILL EXIT
SOUTH...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME
LOW POPS FOR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. FINALLY...ON
FRIDAY...ONE LAST WAVE LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH WITH A POSSIBLE UPTICK
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF AROUND 40 THIS MORNING...HAVE CUT BACK
HIGHS FOR TODAY BASICALLY BACK INTO THE LOW 50S...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS FAILING TO CRACK 50...ESPECIALLY
ON THE RIDGES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 40S...BUT CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM GOING TOO MUCH LOWER THAN HIGHS
TODAY. ON FRIDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHTLY MILDER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S.
STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT
LOWER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEAMPLIFYING OF THE
INITIAL BLOCKY PATTERN AS A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS OVER THE CONUS
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST. THE MID ATLANTIC ONE WILL LOSE
ITS INFLUENCE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS IT
STARTS TO MOVE OFF SHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW HEIGHT RISES AND RIDGING
TO SPREAD INTO THE BLUEGRASS STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR PART OF THE REGION BY ADDITIONAL
TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE AREA
PRIMED FOR WEAK SHORT WAVES TO PASS OVERHEAD IN FAIRLY FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE GREAT
LAKES TROUGH THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND WILL BE DAMPENED OUT VIA
THE BLEND FOR GRIDDED FORECAST PURPOSES. MEANWHILE...FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND OPEN UP ALLOWING BITS OF
ITS ENERGY TO SLIP EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE NOW WEAKENING SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS ACTION
IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THAT IT EVENTUALLY RESULTS IN THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF KENTUCKY AND MORE BOUTS OF
ENERGY MOVING OVER OUR CWA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE PATTERN THEN
CONTINUES ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ENDING UP
WITH TROUGHING NORTH OF THE AREA AND FLATTER...MORE ZONAL...
HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH LIMITED PACKETS OF ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN THE COMPLICATIONS OF THIS EVOLVING
PATTERN WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AS THE STACKED LOW TO OUR EAST LOSES
ITS INFLUENCE. AS PART OF THIS PROCESS...A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
PASSES THROUGH KENTUCKY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INITIALLY AND THEN THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES
THAT AFTERNOON. IN FACT...ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD BECOME STRONG GIVEN MODERATE CAPE...LOW
LIS...AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIP
SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
HANG UP OVER EAST KENTUCKY INTO THE START THE NEW WEEK. WITH
THIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED. ON SUNDAY
THE FRONT AND PCPN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS
OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DO BETTER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH WITH MID AND
UPPER 70S ANTICIPATED. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FUEL THE
INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH ANY
SHOWERS DURING THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AS FOR THE CR INIT...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES
EACH NIGHT ANTICIPATING MINIMAL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES ASIDE
FROM SATURDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. ALSO TWEAKED THE POPS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE LATEST
ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
CIGS ARE STARTING TO COME DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN SHOWERS
SPREAD INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MID MORNING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
WAVE WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND CIGS AGAIN DROPPING BACK TO
MVFR. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
656 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW REACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE: BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE LESS NORTH WITH RADAR
REF LATEST HRRR OUTPUT AND FURTHER NORTH HIGH RESOLUTION NAM
OUTPUT...WE ADJUSTED FCST QPF IN THE 00Z-06Z AND 06-12Z TM FRAMES
SLIGHTLY TO THE SE FROM THE PREV FCST. FCST POPS WERE THEN RE-
FORMULATED FOR THE OVRNGT PD USING THE POP FROM QPF NEAR TERM TOOL
WHICH SHARPENED THE GRADIENT OF POPS FROM LITTLE IN THE NW TO NEAR
100 PERCENT FROM E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA TO THE COAST...WITH THE
GREATEST GRADIENT OF POPS OVR N CNTRL PTNS OF THE REGION AND SE
AROOSTOOK COUNTY. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST HRLY
TEMPS INTO THE OVRNGT HRS BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS TO UNCHGD FCST
LOWS POSTED ERLY FRI MORN.
ORGNL DISC: LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPINNING WELL OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN RAPIDLY MOVE TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT.
WE`RE ALREADY SEEING MOISTURE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA, AS EVIDENCED BY PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. THE
RAIN WON`T BE FAR BEHIND AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. AS WITH LAST NIGHT`S RAIN, DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION, WITH AREAS NORTH OF A HOULTON TO
MILLINOCKET LINE SEEING JUST SOME SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE
ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO, WITH FAR WASHINGTON COUNTY RECEIVING A
LITTLE MORE. THE RAIN WILL BE A QUICK SHOT GIVEN THE LOW`S RAPID
FORWARD PROGRESSION AND WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. IT`LL BE A BIT BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSING LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTH WOODS TO THE LOWER 40S DOWNEAST.
PLEASANT WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY, ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY; EXPECT
EVERYONE WILL SEE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUN BY MID AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO TO THE LOWER 60S IN MOST SPOTS, THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
DOWNEAST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL HANG IN LONGEST; HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE THE CUT-OFF LOW FINALLY GETTING ABSORBED
BACK INTO THE MAIN WEATHER PATTERN AND A DIGGING TROF MOVING
ACROSS QUEBEC. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL START OFF CLEAR, BUT HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD BACK NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THICKEN THRU THE DAY ON
SAT. AS THE CUT-OFF GETS ABSORBED BACK INTO THE UPR TROF AND ITS
MOISTURE STREAMS BACK NORTH AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT, MAY
HAVE SOME ISO TO SCT SHWRS LATE SAT AM THRU SAT NIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE CWA DURING THE
AFTN AND EVE ON SUN. THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT, BUT FELT CONFIDENT TO INTRODUCE LKLY TO LOW-
END DEF POPS. CURRENTLY GOING FOR QPF OF A QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH. TEMPS WILL BE ABV NRML SAT, BUT INCR CLOUDS AND AFTN PRECIP
WILL LIKELY TAMP DOWN TEMPS A BIT ON SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME PRECIP LKLY TO BE ONGOING ALONG THE N AND E BORDERS AT 00Z
MON START OF THE LONG TERM, BUT QUICKLY DIMINISHES. HWVR,
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS QUICKLY DEVELOP REGARDING THE SPEED OF
THE UPR TROF DEPARTING THE REGION, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS
AND A FEW SHWRS TO LINGER UP NORTH. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SFC SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS SRN NEW ENG TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT, BUT ALSO
DISAGREE QUITE A BIT ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP, SO KEPT
POPS AT CHC FOR NOW. 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE CLOSER TO THE GFS AND
CMC SOLUTIONS, SO FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES MAY BE ABLE TO HAVE A BIT
MORE CERTAINTY IF THAT TREND HOLDS. TEMPS ON MON LKLY TO BE A BIT
BLW NRML BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT QUICKLY REBOUND TO NEAR OR A BIT
ABV NRML THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL SITES CURRENTLY UNDER PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS AND
THIS SHOULD BE THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY, THOUGH THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS MAY SEE A PERIOD OF VFR. THEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS
A PERIOD OF RAIN. KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE THE STEADIEST RAIN AS
WELL AS THE LONGEST PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS (00Z-11Z). THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE JUST SOME SHOWERS AT
MOST, BUT CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO BELOW 1000 FT LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 12Z AS SKIES CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. ALL SITES VFR BY 18Z.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR AT ALL SITES FRI NIGHT, EXCEPT PATCHY FOG
CAN`T BE RULED OUT, SPCLY KHUL SOUTH TO THE COAST AS WINDS MAY BE
A BIT LIGHTER THERE. HIGH CIGS SPREAD OVER THE CWA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SAT AND SAT NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUING VFR AT FIRST, THOUGH
ANY SHWRS LATER SAT INTO SUN AM COULD BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU THE STATE FROM W TO E BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND
06Z MON, EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES. CIGS WILL
INCREASE ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA, BUT AS THE UPR TROF
REMAINS OVER HEAD, COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES MON, SPCLY IF
ANY SHWRS LINGER.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE AS WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CONVERTED OVER TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
FRIDAY MORNING TO EXTEND THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS WILL BE 5-9 FEET.
SHORT TERM: WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE
SHORT TERM, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA LEVELS FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT. SEAS LOOK TO SETTLE SOME SAT NIGHT INTO SUN, AND MAY
ALLOW THE ANTICIPATED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO BE DROPPED.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...KREDENSOR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...VJN/KREDENSOR
MARINE...VJN/KREDENSOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
355 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A NNW FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATING THE WRN GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE E AND AN
UPR RDG IN CENTRAL NAMERICA. A SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM THE UPR
MIDWEST INTO WRN QUEBEC AS WELL AS DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB
RAOB IS BRINGING A MOSUNNY DAY TO UPR MI...BUT MORE MAINLY MID/HI
CLDS RELATED TO WAA IN THE SW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RDG ARE
PRESENT FM WRN LK SUP INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS
UNDER THESE CLDS OVER MN WHERE MID LVL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN
STEEPER...BUT ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN WAA AND RELATIVELY DRY
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS ARE LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF THIS PCPN...WITH
A DIMINISHING TREND IN RECENT HRS.
TNGT...AS SFC HI PRES RDG CONTINUES TO SLIDE SEWD...SW FLOW/WAA ARE
PROGGED TO DOMINATE THE CWA. EXPECT SOME MID/HI CLDS RELATED TO THIS
WAA TO PASS OVER THE CWA MAINLY THRU 06Z BEFORE SUBSIDENCE RELATED
TO SHARPENING H7 RDG AXIS DRIES UP THESE CLDS. CONSIDERED ADDING
SOME ISOLD SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVNG OVER THE FAR W WHERE NAM
SHOWS POCKET OF H7-5 LAPSE RATES ARND 8C/KM AND SOME OF THE HIER RES
MODELS GENERATE SPOTTY QPF...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUG THE AIRMASS
IS SO DRY IN A RELATIVE SENSE THAT THE DRY FCST GUIDANCE IS ON THE
RIGHT TRACK. COMBINATION OF THE WAA CLDS AND LLVL WARMING RELATED TO
STEADY SW FLOW WL HOLD MIN TEMPS UP MUCH HIER THAN THIS MRNG. IN
FACT...READINGS MAY NOT FALL BLO 50 OVER THE FAR W FM IRONWOOD TO
ONTONAGON WHERE THE SW FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE.
FRI...UPR MI WL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BTWN DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG
TO THE SE AND SFC LO PRES TRACKING ACROSS NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF SHRTWV
MOVING OVER WRN RDG AND INTO FAR NW ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST AS HI AS 18C AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITHIN
LINGERING DRY AIRMASS...TEMPS AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF
MAINLY LK MI OVER THE W HALF WL RISE WELL INTO THE 80S AND PERHAPS
ARPCH 90 AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH DAYTIME MIXING CAUSING SFC DEWPTS
TO DROP AT LEAST CLOSE TO 40 IN THE AFTN...EXPECT MIN RH TO DIP NEAR
20 PCT AT A FEW PLACES. ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH
GUSTS UP TO ARND 20 MPH...FIRE WX CONCERNS WL BE ELEVATED. WINDS WL
BE A BIT STRONGER OVER THE E...BUT MODERATION OFF LK MI WL LIMIT
FIRE WX CONCERNS THERE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
LONG TERM STARTS AT 00Z SAT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND WARM AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 17C AT 00Z...BUT WILL
DROP TO 1-2C BY 18Z SAT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT UP TO 0.20 INCHES OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA FRI NIGHT...BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SAT...BUT SOME AREAS MAY NOT
EVEN SEE 0.10 INCHES. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY
(CAPE UP TO 750 J/KG)...BUT NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20KTS).
DRY AIR MOVES BACK IN ON SAT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MIN RH VALUES IN
THE MID 20S OVER THE INTERIOR W AROUND AROUND 40 PERCENT INTERIOR E.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE W AND WILL GUST UP TO 25 MPH OVER THE
E. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND E
AND AROUND 60 INTERIOR W. CERTAINLY NOT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
BUT THE DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY NEGATE ANY MOISTURE WE GET FRI NIGHT.
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND POSSIBLY THE KEWEENAW AND ERN UPPER MI SAT EVENING INTO
SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES N OF THE AREA...BUT THINK
POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR LAND AREAS.
SUN WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPS/RH/CLOUDS TO SAT...BUT WITH LOWER WINDS.
MON AND TUE HAD APPEARED WET FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS...BUT THOSE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER. NOW ONLY THE 00Z/05 ECMWF SHOWS PRECIP
OVER THE CWA...EXCEPT THE GLOBAL GEM WHICH HAS PRECIP BRUSHING SRN
MENOMINEE COUNTY. WILL ACCORDINGLY START A DECREASING TREND FOR THE
POP FORECAST FOR MON THROUGH TUE. NO PRECIP EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KTS TO
PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
SSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
TO THE N AT 20-25 KTS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS BOUNDARY. AS HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 15-20 KTS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. RED FLAG WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY...
CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS OF 850HPA FIELDS SHOW A TIGHT GRADIENT OF
WARMING TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
VORT MAX HAS DROPPED ACROSS MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...AND IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN. THE COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED
RAIN SHOWERS IS LIMITED AND THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 5KFT WILL
LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THIS WAVE TO PRODUCE
THUNDER. LIGHTNING HAS ACCOMPANIED THE FAST MOVING VORT MAX
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. HAVE INTRODUCED
THUNDER TO THE MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE WAVE EXITS THE REGION TO
THE SOUTH BY THE NOON HOUR...GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS AND RAPIDLY FALLING RH
VALUES. THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WITH 850HPA TEMPS IN THE TEENS...WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES
SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH
LOCATIONS IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND
25MPH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 25% WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AS COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT...THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO
CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE BEHAVIOR.
HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND
SPEEDS IN THE MIXED LAYER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
NAM/SREF/GFS ARE INDICATING MUCAPE OF UP TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OR
MORE. THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LOW...THOUGH...BECAUSE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY TRAIL
WELL BEHIND THE INSTABILITY AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT....LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE GUSTY NW
FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGHT
DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY...PROVIDING SUNNY
AND SEASONALLY NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
A STACKED LOW MIGHT LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT
WEEK...STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT MAY RESULT IN A FEW
DAYS OF COOL EASTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COULD
LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS WEAKENING TOWARDS
THE EVENING. CLEARING SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 73 51 81 45 / 20 0 20 30
INL 83 52 80 39 / 20 0 20 10
BRD 81 53 85 47 / 20 0 20 20
HYR 71 50 81 47 / 20 0 10 40
ASX 70 49 82 46 / 10 0 10 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
551 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH MID EVENING IN NORTHWEST ND. A HIGH-BASED SHOWER
DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON NEAR 2230 UTC...AND EVEN THOUGH
THE ENTLN TOTAL LIGHTNING PLOT HAS NOT YET SHOWN ANY IN-CLOUD OR
CLOUD-TO-GROUND STRIKES...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MLCAPE
/UP TO 250 J/KG PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS/ IN THAT AREA SUGGEST A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC SHOWS CUMULUS ALL ALONG A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MT SO IT
IS PLAUSIBLE MORE THAN JUST THAT INITIAL SHOWER MAY FORM. THAT
BEING SAID...RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE LIKELY OVERDONE WITH EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT BASED ON THAT MODEL/S RECENT AND LONGER-TERM BIASES.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE CONTINUING THE RED FLAG WARNING IN EAST CENTRAL
ND FOR NOW GIVEN LATE-AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS AND ONGOING FIRES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
THE MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
TODAY AND A COLD FRONT TOMORROW.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING WINDS...HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON TO RISE RAPIDLY INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES HAVE FURTHER EXACERBATED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS. WITH VERY DRY AIR MIXING DOWN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN A
BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY. THIS IS WHAT PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20
MPH...COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY 20 PERCENT OR LESS AND DRY FUELS IS
PRODUCING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
IN NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD HAVE
PASSED TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THESE AREAS MAY ESCAPE CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MAINLY DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WITH A
PERSISTANT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND IS RATHER MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. HOWEVER... PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.
CHANGES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON FOR THE START THE WORK WEEK AS
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST DEEPENS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND AND LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE LOW REMAINING
NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. THE
MAIN AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH.
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT WILL OCCUR FRIDAY ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ005-013-023-
025-037-048-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
452 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS A
DEEP UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST TO
OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH ON MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EXPANDS
AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OF 445 PM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST RAP FIELDS
SHOW THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER THE LOWER PIEDMONT PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST DEEP LAYER DPVA FORCING OCCURRING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL TRANSIT THE LOWER PIEDMONT
AND THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WHILE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL THEN DIMINISH OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...AN ADDITIONAL SPOKE OF MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL APPROACH
THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST
UPDATE WILL REFLECT THESE POP TRENDS. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GRAUPEL OR VERY SMALL HAIL WITH LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES.
OTHERWISE...THE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST
OVERNIGHT...AND THE BEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE TO OUR EAST.
LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
FROM THE N ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. INTERESTINGLY...FAIRLY
WELL-DEFINED ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW THRU THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND THAT APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
THE QPF PRODUCED BY VARIOUS GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE A CATEGORY
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...AND SOME SNOW IS LIKELY TO MIX IN ONCE AGAIN
ON THE HIGHEST MTN RIDGES. NO APPRECIABLE ACCUM IS EXPECTED. POPS
DIMINISH IN THE EARLY MRNG HOURS. THE SETUP REMAINS SIMILAR FROM
THERE THRU THE DAY FRIDAY...AS THE LOW REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLIGHTLY POORER WITH THE BETTER COLD AIR
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT TEMPS/DEWPTS REBOUND BY 5-7 DEGREES...AND
THESE SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY STILL WILL DEVELOP. CHANCES OVERALL
ARE LESSER WITH MODEL QPF BEING LESS WIDESPREAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...ONE MORE POCKET OF COLD AIR ROTATES AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WARMER MID
LEVEL AIR MOVES IN ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO KEEP ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THERE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT TRAILING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRUSH THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY CREATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. FINALLY...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW MOVES EAST.
SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY EVEN AS HEIGHTS RISE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR. TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS ON SATURDAY THEN RISE TO NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED W TO E ACROSS THE REGION
UNDERNEATH FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SARGASSO SEA
INDUCES WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND TO GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S DURING THIS TIME AS WELL AND
WITH THE INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS LESS
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT COVERAGE THROUGH MID-WEEK WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS
LARGELY TO BE THE RESULT OF STRONGER PERTURBATIONS IN THE WSW FLOW
ALOFT ENHANCING OVERALL FORCING IN THE GFS COMPARED TO THE FAIRLY
BENIGN ECMWF SOLUTION. THE FORECAST THEREFORE REFLECTS A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE AS THE PATTERN CERTAINLY WARRANTS SLIGHT CHANCE
COVERAGE EAST AND CHANCE COVERAGE WEST.
AN OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DROPS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS AND A FEW LOBES OF
VORTICITY ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS AND INTO VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS NATURE OF THIS PATTERN...AGAIN THE GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW. WHILE POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO LATE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE
ANTICIPATED BETTER FORCING ALOFT...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
WARRANT MORE AGGRESSIVE COVERAGE ATTM. FOR NOW...THESE FEATURES DO
LITTLE TO CHANGE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE EXPECT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE PIEDMONT
WILL MAINTAIN GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH BASED SCT
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES FROM THE N LATER THIS EVENING AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO MORE ROBUST AND WIDESPREAD SHRA AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RESTRICTED
VSBY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED GUSTS WITH THE SHRA EXISTS BUT
HARD TO PIN DOWN FOR INCLUSION IN TEMPO. CHANCE OF SHRA DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. VIRTUALLY ALL CIG GUIDANCE INDICATES BASES WILL REMAIN
VFR. WINDS WILL STAY IN THE NW QUAD THRU THE PERIOD...BACKING TOWARD
W FOR A TIME TONIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES NWD ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
THOUGH THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW WILL BE LESS FRIDAY...LAPSE RATES ARE
STILL SUFFICIENT TO EXPECT GOOD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO RETURN.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY AS AT KCLT...BUT WITH PRECIP CHANCES SOMEWHAT
LOWER ACRS KGSP/KGMU/KAND PER CONSENSUS OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. KAVL
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BRISK NWLY GUSTS INTO THE EVENING...AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...SUGGESTING A SMALL CHANCE
OF AN MVFR CIG EXISTS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...A LOW CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST FRI AFTN MAINLY
ACROSS THE NC SITES...BEFORE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. DRY
HIGH PRES RETURNS SATURDAY...WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH THRU SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 92% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG/JMP
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...HG/WIMBERLEY