Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/04/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
839 PM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Night through morning low clouds and fog are expected for the
coast and some coastal valleys tonight through Wednesday, followed
by partial afternoon clearing. A slow moving low pressure system
will bring a chance of showers to the area Thursday through
Sunday, along with cooler conditions. There will be a slight
chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. High pressure early
next week will likely bring a return to near-normal temperatures.
&&
.UPDATE...
In the immediate short term, main concern will be the marine layer
stratus. Current sounding data indicates marine inversion ranging
from 1000 feet north of Point Conception to about 1200 feet across
the LA basin. Broad swaths of high clouds are obscuring the
stratus on satellite imagery, making it tough to gauge the
current extent of stratus/fog. However with better onshore
gradients tonight and a deeper inversion, do think that stratus
will be rather widespread across the coastal plain and will even
sneak into the lower coastal valleys. Otherwise...no significant
weather issues in the immediate short term.
Overall, current forecast looks on track for the immediate short
term. So, no forecast updates are planned.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TUE-FRI)
Warm afternoon temperatures across much of the region today.
Slight cooling from the readings yesterday was expected but a
mostly absent marine incursion and weak offshore flow resulted in
higher minimum temperatures and that has been maintained through
the day. If not for a broad swath of high clouds across the region
the temperatures may have been even higher.
Other than adjusting temperatures upward a bit... most in Los
Angeles and Ventura County coastal plains and adjacent valleys...
little was changed in the general forecast package. Temperatures
tomorrow will be moderated by increasing amounts of cloud cover
and should be cooler. Weak offshore flow may continue for another
overnight though so the relative cooling may not be until later
in the day.
The primary weather of note is the incoming low pressure system
that will swing through beginning early Thursday. This system will
bring a shot at showers and thunderstorms to the region. The
best chance of either comes Thursday afternoon/evening and Friday
afternoon/evening in the Ventura and Los Angeles County mountains
and adjacent areas. The Ventura County mountains in particular
look to have good instability and strong positive buoyancy both
Thursday and Friday. However PWs are low on Thursday and marginal
on Friday. A pool of higher PW is expected to be to the south of
the region on Friday and if the low swings through farther north
than currently projected this may lead to a higher thunderstorm
probability. As it now stands... a chance to slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms appropriately represents the likelihood
of either.
.LONG TERM...(SAT-TUE)
A slight chance of showers continues across the region on
Saturday. The instability and CAPE both drop off notably on
Saturday so no thunderstorms are in the forecast but enough
moisture wraps around the low to keep showers lingering into the
mountains through early Sunday.
A moderate ridge begins to build over the region by late Sunday and
conditions return to warm and dry into the next work week.
&&
.AVIATION...03/2300Z...
At 2300Z, the marine inversion at KLAX was 700 feet. The top of
the inversion was 2000 feet with a temperature of 23 degrees
Celsius.
Overall, low to moderate confidence in 00Z TAF package. High
clouds are obscuring the location of stratus this afternoon,
making for a low confidence forecast of where/when stratus may
impact airfields. Any stratus/fog that develops overnight will
likely be IFR category or worse.
KLAX...low confidence in 00Z TAF. Moderate confidence in return of
stratus to airfield overnight, but low confidence in timing (+/- 3
hours of current 06Z arrival forecast). With strong onshore
gradients on Wednesday, stratus dissipation may be later than
currently forecast.
KBUR...moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. There is a 50% chance of no
ceiling/vsby restriction overnight.
&&
.MARINE...03/800 PM...
For the Outer Waters, good confidence in current forecast. Winds
and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through the
weekend. However there is a 30% chance that some SCA level gusts
could develop Friday afternoon/evening across western sections of
the Outer Waters.
For the Inner Waters, good confidence in current forecast. Winds
and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through the
weekend.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RAT/KJ
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...Smith
weather.gov/losangeles
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
832 PM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.Synopsis...
Period of unsettled weather setting in through this weekend.
Scattered thunderstorms in this pattern will produce a few areas
of heavy rain and small hail, most numerous in the foothills and
mountains.
&&
.Discussion...
Some showers this evening over Burney Basin and places to the
north and east will continue to move northward. A few showers may
pop up east of the crest overnight but most of the area is
expected to stay dry overnight. The HRRR indicates possible
showers popping up in the western delta towards morning and moving
north along the west side of the valley. By 8 am an increase in
showers is expected along the coastal range and over Shasta
County.
As the eastern portion of the low moves onshore instability will
increase in the afternoon and bring a change of showers and
thunderstorms across the interior. The better profiles for
stronger thunderstorm activity looks to occur over the foothills
and mountains. The activity should continue into the evening
before tapering but isolated activity may be able to occur in the
mountains overnight. Snow levels look high so not expecting any
major impacts to trans sierra travel. Temperatures will cool into
the 70s in the valley to the 60s in the mountains.
On Thursday the center of the low will be along the coast to
provide continued instability over the interior and another day
of showers and thunderstorms. The low will begin to drift
southward Thursday night. A couple of inches of snow may occur
over the pass along highway 88 in the evening but the other major
passes should be OK for travel.
On Friday the center of the low will move into Southern
California with warp around moisture continuing showers over the
northern part of the state. It may be unstable enough for some
thunderstorm activity but the amount should be less than the next
two days. Temperatures will cool into the low to mid 70s in the
valley and 50s and 60s in the mountains Thursday and Friday.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)
Negative anomaly (minus 3) 5H closed low over Socal on Fri forecast
to track slowly ENEwd across the Great Basin over the weekend...
followed by high pressure building into Norcal early next week.
Cyclonic flow and wrap around moisture will keep a cool and
unsettled weather pattern over most of our CWA through the
weekend...followed by a drying and warming trend early next week.
At times...the models indicate some instability or light precip
developing over a small portion of the Nrn portion of our CWA
spilling over the amplifying ridge. In addition...the last couple
of runs of the ECMWF continue to show a weak trof moving trough
the Pac NW and Nrn Rockys early next week. Given the trend...will
continue some low or "silent PoPs" over the mtns for now.
Temps will gradually warm through the period. Maxes will start
out just a little below normal over the Nrn portion of the CWA to
5-10 degrees or more cooler than normal over the Srn portion on
Sat...before warming to 5-10 degrees above normal on Tue. Forecast
highs in the low to mid 70s in the Central Vly on Sat warm into
the 80s for Mon and Tue. JHM
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected tonight through tomorrow morning with
ceilings lowering to around 10 kft. Isolated mountain
thunderstorms could continue overnight, but expect greater areal
coverage Wed afternoon. The best chances for Wednesday thunderstorms
look to be confined to the mountains but heavier showers causing
MVFR conditions over the Sacramento Valley, especially the
northern half, cannot be ruled out.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1036 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS....COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH IMPACTING THE COAST AND INLAND VALLEYS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY LASTING
INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:01 PM PDT SUNDAY...ACCORDING TO THE
EXPERIMENTAL GOES R IFR PROBABILITY SATELLITE IMAGE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ARE WORKING THEIR WAY UP THE BIG SUR AND SANTA CRUZ COAST AT
THIS HOUR. HALF MOON BAY IS ALSO REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
LOW CLOUDS. THIS SOUTHERLY SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
CONTINUE NORTHWARD IMPACTING THE COAST AND INLAND VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUN OF THE
HRRR FORECAST MODEL...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE
INLAND VALLEYS NOT LONG AFTER SUN RISE...BUT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH LATE MORNING.
THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
ALBERTA CANADA. THE 0000Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED
WELL WITH THESE FEATURES AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT SATURDAY.
BOTH OF THESE MODELS SLIDE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH TOWARDS CALIFORNIA...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
SPREADING SOUTH WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
UPPER LEVEL AIR OF THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD SUPPORT A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ENTERING
ARIZONA...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN A GOOD POSITION FOR WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE DOES
A REASONABLE JOB WITH THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS SO NO
UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE
COAST WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE MRY BAY AREA EARLY
TONIGHT AND PARTS OF THE SFO BAY AREA LATE TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...SCT-BKN010 FROM 12Z THROUGH 16Z.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH 17Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE
COAST WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. A MODERATE SWELL WILL MIX
WITH A SMALLER LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THIS WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1011 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.Synopsis...
Threat of afternoon showers and thunderstorms continues over the
mountains into Tuesday then a more widespread chance Wednesday
into Friday. Cooling to near normal midweek.
&&
.Discussion...
Scattered thunderstorms developed earlier today over the mountains
with isolated over the valley. Activity has diminished this
evening with skies turning mostly clear with generally light
winds. Current forecast is on track and no evening update will be
needed.
.Previous Discussion...
Thunderstorms and showers have developed along the western Sierra
slopes this afternoon. Current radar shows that most of the
thunderstorms are in El Dorado county and southward along the
Sierra. Latest HRRR run is showing that showers/thunderstorms will
gradually spread northward along the Sierra...reaching up to
around the Quincy-Chester area. HRRR also shows that
showers/thunderstorms could move into the foothills, especially
the Motherlode region along with some showers possible in the
Northern San Joaquin Valley this evening around Stockton and
Modesto. All shower activity should diminish by 9-10 pm tonight.
In the meantime, if you hear thunder, stay indoors for shelter to
avoid dangerous lightning and possible hail.
Meso low weakens over NorCal Monday although some lingering
chances for showers/thunderstorms possible along the higher
elevations of the Sierra. By Tuesday, a deep upper trough over the
Eastern Pacific Ocean will move into the West Coast which will
continue the threat of afternoon mountain showers and
thunderstorms. High temps trend down slightly on Tuesday as
synoptic cooling and onshore flow gradually increase over Interior
NorCal.
More notable cooling (5-10 degrees) on Wednesday as the
center of the low gets closer to interior NorCal. Valley highs
will be around the mid 70s with 50s and 60s along foothills and
mountains. Chance of showers will become more widespread on
Wednesday, covering much of our CWA. Instability with this low
will keep a slight chance of thunderstorm development in the mix,
too. JBB
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)
Forecast models are in decent agreement as to the position and
timing of the upper level low track and progression starting at the
beginning of the long term forecast period. The high amplitude
trough of low pressure is a bit quicker as advertised by the GFS
heading into late Wednesday night to early Thursday morning, while
the ECMWF has the arrival into NorCal more into the early to mid
morning hours on Thursday. In either scenario, the incoming storm
system will bring the needed lift behind enough moisture to bring
showers and thunderstorm chances for the entire forecast area. The
system will not move very quick, and cool temperatures along with
chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through next
weekend.
A cool down of temperatures is expected with a return to near normal
high temperatures in the low to mid 70s in the valley, 50s to 60s in
the foothills, and the low to mid 40s in the higher elevations on
Thursday and Friday. Temperatures should return to slightly above
normal temperatures in the valley next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the terminals for the next 24
hours. A slight chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Cascade
range this afternoon and evening. Breezy north winds gusting to 20
mph over the Sacramento valley and foothills decreasing after 00z
today.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
943 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE SITUATED
UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN ONTARIO
CANADA. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...A MOIST S-SW FLOW HAS BEEN IN
PLACE...KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS LOCATED OVER OUR AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LOCATED MAINLY EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THIS MOISTURE PLUME AND NEARBY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION ESPECIALLY FROM
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE GREAT CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS CLOSE BY AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES START TO HEAD EASTWARD...THE 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS TONIGHT...ESP
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR LATER. ANY RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP AROUND...TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE HELD INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW UPPER 30S ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME A CUTOFF LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD...AND THE NEARBY STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A PIECE OF VORTICITY SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SKY
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY OVERCAST ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO THE E-SE FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...AND DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF UNSETTLED AS THE FA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE A
FORECAST OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS RUNNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AT
WHICH TIME THE COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FA WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S.
DRY WEATHER IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.
OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE JUST SCATTERED AT BEST...SO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT JUST SOME BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN ANY SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MAINLY. THESE SHOWERY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS VERY
PERSISTENT.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY CLOUDY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY...ALONG PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RH
VALUES WON/T FALL BELOW 55 PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY.
TOTAL QPF OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE AROUND A HALF INCH...WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOT OVERLY STEADY...AND VEGETATION IN THE PROCESS OF
GREENING UP...THIS RAINFALL WON/T HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS. RIVER LEVELS WILL MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR ONLY SHOW
SOME VERY MINOR RISES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
724 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE SITUATED
UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN ONTARIO
CANADA. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...A MOIST S-SW FLOW HAS BEEN IN
PLACE...KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS LOCATED OVER OUR AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LOCATED MAINLY EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THIS MOISTURE PLUME AND NEARBY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION ESPECIALLY FROM
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION AND THE GREAT CAPITAL DISTRICT. THESE SHOWERS WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND...WOULD EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS CLOSE BY AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES START TO HEAD EASTWARD...THE 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS TONIGHT...ESP
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR LATER. ANY RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP AROUND...TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE HELD INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW UPPER 30S ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME A CUTOFF LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD...AND THE NEARBY STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A PIECE OF VORTICITY SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SKY
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY OVERCAST ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO THE E-SE FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...AND DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF UNSETTLED AS THE FA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE A
FORECAST OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS RUNNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AT
WHICH TIME THE COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FA WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S.
DRY WEATHER IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.
OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE JUST SCATTERED AT BEST...SO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT JUST SOME BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN ANY SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MAINLY. THESE SHOWERY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS VERY
PERSISTENT.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY CLOUDY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY...ALONG PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RH
VALUES WON/T FALL BELOW 55 PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY.
TOTAL QPF OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE AROUND A HALF INCH...WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOT OVERLY STEADY...AND VEGETATION IN THE PROCESS OF
GREENING UP...THIS RAINFALL WON/T HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS. RIVER LEVELS WILL MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR ONLY SHOW
SOME VERY MINOR RISES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1203 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS BEING PRECEDED BY AN
AREA OF CONVECTION...IMPACTING MAINLY NORTHERN POTIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTERIOR SW CT. HRRR SHOWS SOME SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING A N-S LINE...MAINLY EAST OF NYC THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR. FOR
THE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING ALOFT AND THE NEXT SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT STILL WELL TO
THE SW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECASTED
MID LEVEL DRYING ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY ALMOST 10 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.
FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.
A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY IFR CIGS...GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE LOW ON WIND FORECAST. GRADIENT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH
FOR VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS...BCMG SE 5-10 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY
RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO
IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SEAS ARE NOW
BELOW 5 FT AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS WITH A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND
FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD COME CLOSE TO 5
FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4 FT.
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.
PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1020 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS BEING PRECEDED BY AN
AREA OF CONVECTION...IMPACTING MAINLY NORTHERN POTIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTERIOR SW CT. HRRR SHOWS SOME SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING A N-S LINE...MAINLY EAST OF NYC THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR. FOR
THE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING ALOFT AND THE NEXT SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT STILL WELL TO
THE SW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECASTED
MID LEVEL DRYING ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY ALMOST 10 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.
FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.
A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT DEPARTS TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...THEN ANOTHER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY E/NE AOB 10 KT THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR CONDS DURING THE AFTN. SEVERAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR...ALTHOUGH
TIMING REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AND COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF IN THE
TAFS. BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH 14Z TO 16Z W TERMINALS
AND 15Z TO 18Z E TERMINALS.
WIND FORECAST THIS AFTN AND EVE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. IFR OR
LOWER CONDS SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS OFF DEPENDING ON WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTN.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDS MAY IMPROVE TO IFR EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. LOW CHC OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY
RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO
IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SEAS ARE NOW
BELOW 5 FT AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS WITH A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND
FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD COME CLOSE TO 5
FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4 FT.
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.
PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1018 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS INITIAL WARM BUBBLE AROUND 650-700 MBS WITH
COOLER AIR ALOFT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO GET THROUGH THE WARM/DRY
LAYER...BUT ONCE IT DOES...WE MAY SEE A STRONG STORM OR TWO OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL NEAR 1 INCH. WINDS ARE
LIGHT IN THE STEERING COLUMN...BUT WESTERLIES INCREASE WITH HEIGHT
ABOVE 15KFT. THIS MAY HELP VENT STORMS AND KEEP UPDRAFTS FROM
COLLAPSING.
AS FAR AS COVERAGE GOES...THE HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS 40 TO 60 PERCENT COVERAGE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDDED FORECAST TO SHOW HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. MOST OF
THESE SHOULD BE GONE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
UPDATES TO TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
MANY TAF SITES ARE SEEING MVFR CEILINGS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS
TO MIX. EXPECT THESE TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH A RETURN TO VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LAL HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT NEAR THE COAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT...THEN
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE WE DONT EXPECT
TO NEED ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
NEED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 74 85 73 / 10 10 30 40
FMY 89 73 88 73 / 20 10 30 20
GIF 90 71 87 70 / 40 40 50 20
SRQ 83 73 83 73 / 10 10 30 30
BKV 88 68 84 67 / 20 10 40 50
SPG 86 74 84 73 / 10 10 30 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...JILLSON
UPPER AIR...DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...MCKAUGHAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
922 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE WEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH 10 PM. A STRONG LINE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR AREA AT APPROXIMATELY 920 PM...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT A
PRETTY GOOD PACE. THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS FROM THIS LINE ARE
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE CURRENT RAP IS
STILL INDICATING SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH
DCAPES AROUND 800 J/KG. THIS COULD HELP MAINTAIN THE LINE FOR
POTENTIALLY ANOTHER 1-3 HOURS. THOUGH...THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT WILL
DEFINITELY STAY SEVERE THE ENTIRE TIME. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
DECREASE AS THE EVENING/NIGHT PROGRESSES DUE TO A STABILIZING
ATMOSPHERE AND THE COLD FRONT WITH DRIER AIR APPROACHING OUR AREA.
THOUGH...STRONG STORMS MAY MAINTAIN UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT,
POPS WILL PERSIST IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY FROM REMNANT
SHOWERS. THESE WILL DECREASE AROUND DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. FOR ABOUT THE PAST WEEK OUR NIGHT TIME LOWS HAVE BEEN
FAR ABOVE NORMAL AND THAT SHOULD BE THE CASE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
THE COOL ADVECTION NOT MAKING IT IN UNTIL LATE. LOWER 60S NW TIER
WILL BE COMMON...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASING AND
BECOMING LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL DRY
OUT THE COLUMN WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...ALTHOUGH STILL AROUND EARLY MAY
NORMALS. LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW 50S INLAND TO UPPER 50S AT
THE BEACHES.
THURSDAY...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MAIN VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE DAY...HELPING
TO GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS. GIVEN THE FORCING
IN PLACE...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED SO NO SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SURFACE LOW FORMS SO NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD GET A BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 MPH.
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LINGERING COOL ADVECTION WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE LOW 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AROUND 50 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE POSITIONED
SOMEWHERE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST AT DAYBREAK. THESE FEATURE ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL
STILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS FROM JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO FAR OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW
OVERSPREADS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. OVERALL WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS EARLY TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WORST CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY PASSED
KSAV. WE ARE SHOWING A 2 HOUR TEMPO WINDOW AT KCHS WITH A BOUT
MVFR CEILINGS IN -TSRA FROM 02-04Z.
THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR ANOTHER SHRA OR TSRA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A DECENT PACKING OF THE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH/SE OF
THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE TAPER THE
AMOUNT OF MIXING AND ONCE CONVECTION MOVES IN THIS WILL ALSO MESS
UP THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THUS WE HAVE NOTHING HIGHER THAN ABOUT
15-18 KT. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE 4 FT OR LESS. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 OR PERHAPS 50 KT...LARGE HAIL..FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAINS. STAY IN PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR IF STORMS
APPROACH. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...STARTING IN THE OUTER GA
WATERS THEN EXPANDING TO ALL WATERS AS WIND GUSTS EXCEED 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND PERSIST OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS ON AVERAGE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND 1-3 FEET.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
230 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
UPDATE...
AFTER AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO QUIET DOWN ACROSS MOST
AREAS. STILL A ZONE OF MLCAPE HOWEVER IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG SO
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED...WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF POPS
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IN STORE
FOR MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
DEESE
PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. CURRENTLY...THERE IS A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM BACK ACROSS MS/AL. THE HRRR HAD A
GOOD HANDLE THIS MORNING ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
EXPECTED CONVECTION SO LEANING THAT DIRECTING IN THE SHORT TERM.
THE HIGH RES HRRR SHOWS A DIURNAL TREND WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SHOWING THEM CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA THEN DIMINISHING BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. WE ARE CURRENTLY
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA FOR TODAY
AND MONDAY. THIS DOES LOOK GOOD AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY STAYS ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE A VERY SIMILAR DAY
MONDAY WITH WHEN AND WHERE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP BACK
UP MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.
01
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS STILL IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED. THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
17
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF ON A STORMY NOTE...BUT IS OVERALL
UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. STRONG SHORTWAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH BEST INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR AHEAD OF IT. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
EXPECT STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BE
MORE ORGANIZED AND PUSH THROUGH THE STATE RATHER QUICKLY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND AT THIS TIME SPC
DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA HIGHLIGHTED IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL STILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE STATE. POPS WEDNESDAY TAPER
OFF QUICKLY...THOUGH MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC AT THIS TIME.
CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT DRY/COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LARGELY DOMINATE OVER THE
AREA. ASIDE FROM SOME MINIMAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS FAR
NORTH GEORGIA...EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE
DRY. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE WEEK DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
31
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LARGELY VFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND EXPECT TO SEE SCT MVFR LAYER DEVELOP 10-12Z. EXPECT
LATER START TO CONVECTION TODAY...IMPACTING THE TAF SITES AFTER
20Z. WINDS WILL BE SW AT 6-8KT THROUGH THE DAY. DEGRADED
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CONVECTION.
MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH 15Z.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 83 62 78 55 / 60 60 40 20
ATLANTA 81 62 74 55 / 60 60 40 10
BLAIRSVILLE 76 58 70 50 / 70 70 40 20
CARTERSVILLE 80 61 74 52 / 70 70 30 10
COLUMBUS 84 65 79 57 / 50 50 40 20
GAINESVILLE 79 61 73 54 / 60 60 40 20
MACON 86 64 81 56 / 50 50 50 20
ROME 80 60 74 51 / 70 70 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 82 61 76 53 / 60 60 40 20
VIDALIA 87 68 83 63 / 50 50 50 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
904 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Will be taking a look at the pop/wx grids to clean them up a bit.
Otherwise, current forecast looks on track and has a good handle
on current situation for the remainder of the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016
A Strong shortwave associated with 100kt jet will plunge into the
eastern U.S. trough that has been over the region the past few days.
Relatively strong dynamics with this fast system will have little in
way of deep moisture to work with. An associated cold front will
move across the region after midnight bringing a chance of showers.
The lower layers of the atmosphere are relatively dry and
precipitation amounts should be less than a quarter of an inch.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Upper low forecast to dive south-southeast into the lower Great
Lakes on Wednesday with the associated cold front and shower
activity expected to be southeast of our forecast area during
the morning. However, 500 mb temperatures forecast to drop to
between -24C to -27C by afternoon over roughly the eastern half
of the forecast area. Will continue to hold onto scattered
showers for the afternoon with some thunder possible as well due
to the steep mid level lapse rates. Seeing some occasional
lightning this afternoon with the deep trof just north of Lake
Superior so will continue to hold with the thunder mention,
especially across the east where the temperatures aloft are the
coldest. The upper low should drift off to our east tomorrow night
with high pressure settling into the region for a couple of quiet
days for Thursday and Friday. After a rather cool couple of
days/nights for Wednesday and Thursday, we should see a nice
warmup for Friday and the weekend when the mercury will rise back
into the 70s, with a few 80s possible ahead of a cool front
Saturday afternoon.
The short lived omega block will begin to break down towards the
end of the week as a vigorous northern stream upper wave shifts
southeast into the upper Great Lakes by Saturday This will drive
another cold front into our area by Saturday afternoon with most
models now suggesting the trof amplifying to our east late
Saturday into Sunday will be strong enough to push the front
further south than earlier expected on Sunday. This would normally
shift the better rain chances further south as well but because a
couple of models have a further north solution to the boundary and
higher POPs, the consensus has mentionable POPs for Sunday into
early Sunday evening, although lower than what we had before,
before the boundary starts to edge back north Sunday night and
Monday resulting in 30-40 Pops CWA-wide again. If this further
south solution continues with the next several runs, we may be
able to lower POPs over most of the area on Sunday. Unfortunately,
with the evolving pattern late in the weekend and especially for
the first half of next week, it appears there will be a daily
threat for showers and thunderstorms through at least next
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Skies will become scattered this evening, ahead of the next short
wave bringing pcpn to the area later tonight. Could be some
clouds, but think they will be cirrus, so no need to mention.
Believe HRRR model has a good handle on movement of the pcpn into
and through the area tonight, so followed its timing with pcpn
getting to PIA first around 05z, then SPI and BMI around 06z, then
CMI and DEC around 07z. Will have VCSH at all sites and then a
TEMPO group at for 3-4hrs where vis is lower due to showers and
slightly lower cigs. Besides the showers, VFR conditions will
prevail at all sites next 24hrs. After the pcpn, clouds will
become scattered or clear remainder of the night and early
morning. With cyclonic flow continuing tomorrow, clouds will
return and thicken, but only at DEC/CMI and BMI. In addition,
short term models indicate that more showers could be possible at
these three sites, so have included more VCSH. Winds will be
southwest ahead of the trough, but then become northwest and then
northerly tomorrow. Winds will become gusty as well.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Barker
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
839 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.UPDATE...
838 PM CDT
THERE WERE ONLY A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND ALL
FAIRLY MINOR SINCE THE MAIN THEME OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES...SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS TONIGHT WITH WINDY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS MOVING IN. THE CHANGES INCLUDED 1.) HAVING
INCREASED THE THUNDER LIKELIHOOD OVERNIGHT...2.) BUMPED UP WIND
GUSTS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...AND 3.) FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WENT WITH MORE COVERAGE WORDING OF SHOWERS AS
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS FAIRLY HIGH...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
EAST OF INTERSTATE 39.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING PORTRAYS A REALLY WELL-DEFINED
SHORT WAVE UPPER CIRCULATION AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHARPLY
DIGGING BROADER TROUGH. THE 00Z INL SOUNDING SAMPLED A 115 KT DUE
NORTHERLY JET...HIGHLY ANOMALOUS ORIENTATION AND SPEED FOR MAY.
THE SHORT WAVE HAS BEEN ON A STEADY TRACK TOWARD THE AREA WITH ITS
LEADING EDGE PRESENTLY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHTNING HAS BEEN STEADY ALONG THIS FRONT EDGE AND
OFTEN WITH THESE COLD CORE WAVES KEEP THEIR LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT.
SO HAVE INCREASED THUNDER CHANCES AS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
/SAMPLED ON 00Z MPX SOUNDING/ MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ANTICIPATED FORCING...AS WELL AS OUTPUT
FROM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS...IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT NEAR
100 POPS BETWEEN MAINLY 11 PM AND 4 AM FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AT THE SURFACE ARE INDICATE A STRENGTHENING
ISALLOBARIC COUPLET AS THE LOW OF 1002 MB NEAR LA CROSSE
WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SOME UPSTREAM WINDS ARE ALREADY
OUTPERFORMING GUIDANCE AND WOULD EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE TO BE THE
TREND IN THIS PATTERN. HAVE INCREASED GUSTS WITH TEMPORARY 30 TO
40 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THEN 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE GIVEN THE FRICTIONLESS NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THE GUSTS SHOULD PEAK MORE 35 TO 45 MPH DURING WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
WAVES ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO OR A LITTLE OVER 10 FT ON THE
CHICAGO SHORE BY LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING AND 12 TO 15 FT ALONG
THE INDIANA SHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST IS BELOW
THRESHOLDS FOR A LAKE FLOOD ADVISORY.
AS FOR FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...THESE CONTINUE TO LOOK
TO BE ON TRACK WITH MID TO UPPER 40S HIGHS IN THE DOWNSTREAM PART
OF THE LAKE AND LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
228 PM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH OUT OF
ONTARIO. EXPECTING A PLEASANT AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WEST WINDS
AND FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY FORMED AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN. REALLY LIKING THE RAP/S
TIMING SO LEANED HEAVILY IN ITS DIRECTION...WITH THE NAM BEING A
SLOWER SOLUTION. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN FRONTAL PRECIP JUST IN CASE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS FORM THIS
EVENING. KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS IDEA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AS CAPE VALUES WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH AND GUSTING
TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE EVEN GUSTIER ALONG THE
SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKE. HIGHS ALONG THE LAKE WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MAYBE 50. THE BACK END OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES
THROUGH TOMORROW AND EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY SHALLOW CAPE...BUT ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE VERY
LOW TOPPED. FREEZING LEVELS ARE ALSO LOW AROUND 3000 FT SO THINKING
THE LOW CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO GRAUPEL INSTEAD OF
THUNDER. NOT EXPECTING A TON OF RAIN...MORE ALONG THE LINES OF
DREARY CONDITIONS WITH OCNL LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY GRAUPEL.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
259 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE UNSEASONABLE STRONG UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SHIFT OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE SOME INTO THE UPPER
30S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND PORTIONS OF THE
FOX RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. IT APPEARS THAT A
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...SO
THE THREAT OF FROST LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD ONLY BE SPOTTY AND
CONFINED TO WELL PROTECTED AREAS...SO WE WILL LEAVE THIS MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN NEAR 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
LAKEFRONT...BUT FARTHER INLAND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND BACK
INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS A WESTERLY WIND
SHIFT ALLOWS THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TO SHIFT OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING 925 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +20C BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A LAKE BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AT
THE LAKE FRONT...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS THERE IF ONE DOES DEVELOP. IN ADDITION TO THE QUICK
WARM-UP...I CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITHIN THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
WEAK SIGNAL...AND THE LIKELY LOW AREAL COVERAGE...WE HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.
A POTENT AND FAST EASTWARD MOVING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
OVER THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR OUR
NEXT DECENT THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT ADVERTISED TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE OVER THE
AREA...WE CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT LOOKING TO BE DURING THE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...IT
APPEARS HIGHS ON SATURDAY COULD AGAIN REACH INTO THE 70S IN MOST
INLAND AREAS...TO POSSIBLY LOW 80S AGAIN SOUTH PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF CONVECTION WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY...SO
DRY...BUT COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...WARMER CONDITIONS...INTO THE 70S...BEGIN TO RETURN BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT ALSO APPEARS THE THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BE
CONDUCIVE TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NEXT WEEK AS MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL ARE FORECASTING ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES LATER
TONIGHT...LOW END MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS...AND STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WESTERLY WINDS AND VFR CEILINGS OCCURRING EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE EVENING UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. DO EXPECT
AROUND A THREE HOUR WINDOW OF PREVAILING SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER TO OCCUR JUST AFTER THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME
TONIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP WILL SWING THROUGH BUT THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME IMMEDIATE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT STILL POSSIBLE
AFTER. VFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER TO LOW END MVFR AND IFR
DURING THAT TIME AND STAY IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH
SPEEDS/GUSTS RAMPING UP...AND LOOKING TO STAY GUSTY OUT OF THE
NORTH FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND HAVE CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH COVERAGE AND DURATION.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
333 PM CDT
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL SET UP NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE-WIDE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. IT
ALSO APPEARS THAT GALE FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
AND NORTHERN OHIO. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. AT THE PRESENT TIME...WE HAVE
LEFT THE ILLINOIS NEAR SHORES OUT OF THIS GALE AS IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND INTO THE
INDIANA NEAR SHORE WATERS. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE ILLINOIS WATERS. THE WINDS LOOK TO ABATE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK
END TO THE GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS LOOK TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE ON
SATURDAY...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO
10 AM THURSDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779...3 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM THURSDAY TO 3
PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
710 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016
A Strong shortwave associated with 100kt jet will plunge into the
eastern U.S. trough that has been over the region the past few days.
Relatively strong dynamics with this fast system will have little in
way of deep moisture to work with. An associated cold front will
move across the region after midnight bringing a chance of showers.
The lower layers of the atmosphere are relatively dry and
precipitation amounts should be less than a quarter of an inch.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Upper low forecast to dive south-southeast into the lower Great
Lakes on Wednesday with the associated cold front and shower
activity expected to be southeast of our forecast area during
the morning. However, 500 mb temperatures forecast to drop to
between -24C to -27C by afternoon over roughly the eastern half
of the forecast area. Will continue to hold onto scattered
showers for the afternoon with some thunder possible as well due
to the steep mid level lapse rates. Seeing some occasional
lightning this afternoon with the deep trof just north of Lake
Superior so will continue to hold with the thunder mention,
especially across the east where the temperatures aloft are the
coldest. The upper low should drift off to our east tomorrow night
with high pressure settling into the region for a couple of quiet
days for Thursday and Friday. After a rather cool couple of
days/nights for Wednesday and Thursday, we should see a nice
warmup for Friday and the weekend when the mercury will rise back
into the 70s, with a few 80s possible ahead of a cool front
Saturday afternoon.
The short lived omega block will begin to break down towards the
end of the week as a vigorous northern stream upper wave shifts
southeast into the upper Great Lakes by Saturday This will drive
another cold front into our area by Saturday afternoon with most
models now suggesting the trof amplifying to our east late
Saturday into Sunday will be strong enough to push the front
further south than earlier expected on Sunday. This would normally
shift the better rain chances further south as well but because a
couple of models have a further north solution to the boundary and
higher POPs, the consensus has mentionable POPs for Sunday into
early Sunday evening, although lower than what we had before,
before the boundary starts to edge back north Sunday night and
Monday resulting in 30-40 Pops CWA-wide again. If this further
south solution continues with the next several runs, we may be
able to lower POPs over most of the area on Sunday. Unfortunately,
with the evolving pattern late in the weekend and especially for
the first half of next week, it appears there will be a daily
threat for showers and thunderstorms through at least next
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Skies will become scattered this evening, ahead of the next short
wave bringing pcpn to the area later tonight. Could be some
clouds, but think they will be cirrus, so no need to mention.
Believe HRRR model has a good handle on movement of the pcpn into
and through the area tonight, so followed its timing with pcpn
getting to PIA first around 05z, then SPI and BMI around 06z, then
CMI and DEC around 07z. Will have VCSH at all sites and then a
TEMPO group at for 3-4hrs where vis is lower due to showers and
slightly lower cigs. Besides the showers, VFR conditions will
prevail at all sites next 24hrs. After the pcpn, clouds will
become scattered or clear remainder of the night and early
morning. With cyclonic flow continuing tomorrow, clouds will
return and thicken, but only at DEC/CMI and BMI. In addition,
short term models indicate that more showers could be possible at
these three sites, so have included more VCSH. Winds will be
southwest ahead of the trough, but then become northwest and then
northerly tomorrow. Winds will become gusty as well.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barker
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1259 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...1031 AM CDT
SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE SKIES BEGAN TO THIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AS DRIER AIR BEGAN TO DRIFT SOUTH FROM THE WEAK ANTI-
CYCLONIC FEATURE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND STRETCHES
WEST THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL...HOWEVER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STRATUS LAYER WILL PERSIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80. TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT MAY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
INTO THE MIDDLE TO PERHAPS UPPER 50S WHERE SKIES REMAIN SUNNY.
HOWEVER FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPERATURES MAY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AS WINDS WILL BE FROM A NORTH
TO AT TIMES NORTHEAST DIRECTION.
BEACHLER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
348 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. MOSTLY CLOUDY...COOL AND OCCASIONALLY
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PLAGUE THE REGION TODAY AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY... INTERRUPTED BRIEFLY TUESDAY AS WARMER WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF STRONG DIGGING SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR CARVING OUT THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE
EASTERN TROUGH.
IN THE NEAR TERM...MID-LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WHICH PROVIDED OUR RAINY WEEKEND WERE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE LINGERING MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST INDIANA COUNTIES AS
OF 3 AM. LOW LEVEL WINDS BACKING MORE NORTHERLY THIS MORNING WILL
BRING MODEST DRYING WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIP...AND THIN OUT SOME OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR NORTHERN IL. SIGNIFICANT CLEARING IS NOT EXPECTED
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD SUPPORT
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AND MAY SUPPORT A FEW SPRINKLES MAINLY
WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE ALSO
CONTINUES TO DEPICT SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT IN THE
VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LEFT BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. NORTHEAST WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE COMBINED WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH UPPER 40S
LIKELY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES MAY TAG 60 BRIEFLY WELL INLAND OF MAIN LAKE COOLING PUSH
AND WHERE SOME PEAKS OF SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THEN DRIFTS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AND A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
WEST AS THIS RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LOW DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE BRIEFLY WARM
UP TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM... WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S EXPECTED. WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD LIMIT ANY LAKE COOLING PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE
LAKE IN LAKE/PORTER COUNTIES. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP QUICKLY AGAIN
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACH. GIVEN CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN MODEL RUNS HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OR SO OF THE CWA...AND INCLUDED SLGT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER
GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH PRECIP WILL LIKELY
LINGER DURING THE DAY AS INSTABILITY SHOWERS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.
RENEWED PUSH OF COOLER AIR ON BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL LIMIT
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS WEDNESDAY MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S ALONG
THE INDIANA IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE...THOUGH INLAND PARTS OF NORTHERN
IL MAY REACH 60. PRECIP THREAT DWINDLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
DIURNAL STABILIZATION. DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES LOOK TO
PRODUCE A CHILLY NIGHT FOR EARLY MAY...WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN SOME SPOTS.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
356 AM CDT
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER PATTERN IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BY MID-WEEK...WITH DEEP TROUGHS
OVER BOTH COASTS AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS
THE RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD...RISING HEIGHTS/SUBSIDENCE RESULT IN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND
BRINGING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AND
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND LAKE BREEZES. 70S RETURN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY HOWEVER AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND TRAILS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY...WITH AN ATTENDANT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...THEN BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY SET UP A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT OF TEMPS WITH 70S ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN SUNDAY...AND
COOLER 50S-60S ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE TO ITS
NORTH WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
NORTHERN IL AIRFIELDS...WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND VFR CONDS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTH...WINDS HAVE REMAINED NORTHEASTERLY BETWEEN
030 TO 050 DEGREES AND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 12KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20KT. CLOSER TO SUNSET WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER
DIMINISH...THEN BEGIN TO TURN NORTHERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 4-6KT
BY 3Z. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME VARIABLE TO NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT
WITH NEAR CLOUDLESS SKIES. SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TUE WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY WITH INCREASING SPEEDS TO AROUND 12-15KT AND
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY TO 18KT. CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWLY ON THE INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
300 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS DEPARTING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME
LINGERING 15 TO 20 KT WINDS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN...BUT PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY...BUT A
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER RIDGE APPROACHES THE REGION.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1253 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Another mostly cloudy and cool day is unfolding across central
Illinois, thanks to a slow-moving upper trough extending from
Wisconsin southwestward to Kansas. Weak synoptic lift ahead of
this feature will be enough to trigger isolated showers today.
With cool surface temps and corresponding instability parameters
remaining quite weak, do not think thunder will develop. Latest
visible satellite imagery generally shows overcast conditions:
however, some partial clearing is trying to work into the far
northern KILX CWA from the northeast. Think any clear spots that
develop will fill back in due to adequately steep lapse rates in
the vicinity of the approaching upper trough axis. As a result,
will maintain the mostly cloudy forecast across the board. Thanks
to the clouds and a continued northeasterly flow, high
temperatures this afternoon will remain below normal for this time
of year, mainly in the middle to upper 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
While cooler/drier post-frontal air has overspread all of central &
southeast Illinois since yesterday, the threat for a few showers
will persist today. Forecast area remains on the southern side of a
sheared upper-level trof that extends from eastern Canada into the
southwestern United States. Another disturbance within this mean
flow, currently over the central Plains, will track across the area
today. Radar returns associated with this disturbance are already
tracking across Missouri and approaching Illinois. This feature will
have limited moisture to work on today as it moves through, and
limited diurnal instability is expected to develop. With this
thinking in mind, only Slight Chance PoPs and low QPF are warranted
with the passage of this disturbance. Otherwise, abundant cloud
cover and cool northerly low-level flow support cooler than normal
highs today, with most locations topping out in the 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Little change indicated from previous model runs in terms of the
upper air pattern this week, with significant ridging along the
Rockies and a cold core low dropping southward through the Great
Lakes by Wednesday night. The ridge will get squeezed and shift
eastward with time, as a second upper low comes onshore of
California. A slow breakdown of the ridge will take place this
weekend as a more significant trough drops southeast through central
Canada. Although temperatures will be relatively cool for the middle
of the week, a significant warming trend will take place beginning
Friday as the thermal axis approaches from the west.
The presence of the current elongated trough from the Great Lakes to
the central Plains will continue a threat of a few showers on
Tuesday, mainly over the southeast parts of the CWA. Better chances
of scattered showers are expected Wednesday as the upper low moves
in from the north. Have increased the PoP`s late Tuesday night and
Wednesday with the main frontal boundary, with chance PoP`s as far
south as I-70 by late Tuesday night. While showers will taper for
awhile Wednesday morning as the front exits, scattered showers are
again expected in the afternoon across mainly eastern Illinois, as
the upper low arrives. Coldest air aloft will be centered over
Indiana in the afternoon, and have maintained a mention of isolated
thunder over eastern Illinois due to the steep lapse rates expected.
Late in the period, the extended models start to show some
disagreement. While the upper features are similar, with an upper
low over Colorado or eastern Utah and shortwaves rotating through
the Great Lakes, the ECMWF is further south with a surface warm
front connecting the two. This would result in scattered showers
into central Illinois Saturday night, whereas the GFS does not bring
the boundary into the area until late Sunday afternoon. For now have
mentioned only slight chances of showers and thunderstorms until
this starts to clear up a bit.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
MVFR ceilings prevail at the central Illinois terminals early this
afternoon. Latest water vapor imagery shows a weak short-wave
trough over west-central Illinois between KSTL and KUIN. As this
feature tracks eastward, the low cloud cover will tend to pivot
southward in its wake, resulting in rising ceilings and eventually
a clearing trend from west to east later this afternoon and
evening. HRRR forecast suggests ceilings improving to VFR at KPIA
as early as 20z...but holding off until 03-04z further southeast
at KCMI/KDEC. Think skies will clear along/west of I-55 during the
evening, then further east late tonight toward dawn Tuesday. After
that, forecast soundings indicate steep lapse rates developing on
Tuesday, which should lead to at least SCT diurnal clouds at
around 5000ft. Winds will be light through the entire
period...initially from the northeast this afternoon, shifting to
the northwest by Tuesday morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1246 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
THE MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH ALLOWED MANY
REPORTS OF UP TO HALF INCH HAIL ACROSS EASTERN WILL AND SOUTHERN
COOK COUNTIES HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS DIMINISHING TREND LIKELY OWING TO CONVECTION
OUTRUNNING INSTABILITY AXIS AND WHILE STRONGEST FORCING CONTINUES
TO LIFT TO THE NORTH. EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA OVER THE NEXT HOUR...WITH ISOLATED PEA SIZE HAIL STILL
POSSIBLE. STEADIER RAIN WILL LIKELY BE MORE PREVALENT OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AS THIS
PRECIP SHIELD SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...
234 PM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF
NEXT ROUND OF PCPN. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS STILL WELL TO THE
WEST...OVER SRN IA/NRN MO...AND LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATE SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
SO...WHILE STILL FEEL THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA IS LIKELY FOR THE
REGION...IT COULD HOLD OFF FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLD TS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST NORTH
OF THE SFC WARM FRONT...AND CLOSER TO THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE THE MOST CONCENTRATED. OTHERWISE...FOR THE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AS NELY FLOW
PERSISTS OFF OF THE RELATIVELY COLD LAKE MICHIGAN WATER.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 40S NEAR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE AND REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
COOL...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S TOWARD THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND
THE UPPER 40S SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND FINALLY PUSH TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MORNING. WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD HELP SHUT OFF AND RESIDUAL
PCPN CHANCES AND BRING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST
PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM
WAVE...SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES...THOUGH WITH WINDS STILL NELY AT THE SFC...LAKEFRONT
LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REMAIN COOLER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...WITH HIGHS ALONG THE LAKEFRONT ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE
INLAND AREAS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
203 PM CDT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ELONGATED MID-LVL TROUGH WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION LATE MON
NIGHT...HEADED FOR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A BROAD
SFC RIDGE TO SLIDE SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND ALSO STEADILY ERODE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP...HOWEVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWFA COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY MON EVE BEFORE
QUICKLY ENDING. WINDS WILL BE TURNING NORTHERLY BUT WITH THE WEAK
GRADIENT SPEEDS WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH...SO EXPECT THE EROSION OF
CLOUD COVER TO BE SLOW. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S...BUT A
FEW AREAS IN FAR NORTHERN IL COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING...SO
WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME FROM INCLUDING ANY MENTION OF FROST MON
NGT.
TUE WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE BROAD SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT WILL EXTEND EAST THROUGH THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
MID-LVL RIDGE LIFTING INTO WESTERN CANADA A LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL
DRIVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE AFTN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TUE NGT...WITH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES SOUTH LATE TUE. LAPSE RATES WILL
QUICKLY STEEPEN AS THE 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS AND SFC TEMPS
TUE AFTN WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO REMAIN
MARGINAL...HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE PRESENT THAT A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER COULD OCCUR LATE TUE/EARLY WED. HAVE PUSHED POPS
UP TO LIKELY TUE EVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FORTUNATELY ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE
PROGRESSIVE AND PUSH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FURTHER EAST BY EARLY
WED...WHICH SHOULD HELP EJECT THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WED MORNING AND BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT DRIER AIR COULD
ARRIVE BY EARLY WED AFTN. BUT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND THE 50S...AND AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S WED AFTN. WED NGT ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVES WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MUCH
COLDER TEMPS...FALLING INTO THE MID/UPR 30S. AT THIS TIME HAVE
HELD OFF ON MENTION OF FROST BUT IF CLOUDS ERODE QUICKER WED EVE
THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST IS PLAUSIBLE FOR AREAS AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTH OF I-80.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... LATEST ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS FEATURE
SLIDES EAST...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH THE FOCUS TURNING
TOWARDS THE MID-LVL TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
SAT/SUN. SIMULTANEOUSLY A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO...AND COULD LAYOUT A BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL QUICKLY MODERATE FROM THE
60S TO PERHAPS LOW 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN DEPENDING ON A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT SUN COULD SEE TEMPS BACK IN THE 60S.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...THEN DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TRENDS...SOME SUGGESTING IMPROVEMENT WHILE
OTHERS SUGGEST DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LIKEWISE...
REGIONAL OBS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE ALSO REVEALED MIXED
TRENDS. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...OPTED TO NOT MAKE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE LATEST TAF. THINKING THERE WILL
BE MODEST IMPROVEMENT BACK TO LOW END MVFR AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT...THEN CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR MONDAY MORNING. IF
ANYTHING...MAY OPT TO EXTEND THE MVFR CONDITIONS LATER INTO THE
DAY MONDAY...BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL THE 09Z TAFS TO MAKE THAT
DECISION. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY...THEN APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING WITH WIND
DIRECTION BACKING TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OR BECOMING VARIABLE IN
SOME LOCATIONS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
304 PM CDT
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE NEARSHORE
WATERS ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE TO DIMINISH AS WELL. STILL
LOOKING AT BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FT TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DIMINISHING TREND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED
TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS....A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
WILL TRY TO INCREASE THE GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT AT THE MOST...BUT NOT LINGER VERY LONG. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INFLUENCES THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTH FROM CENTRAL
CANADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST
BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLIDE SOUTH AND INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND TURN
WINDS NORTHERLY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD.
SMALL CRAFT HAZARDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY FOR THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA NEARSHORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1212 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Will be updating the forecast shortly to cancel the Severe
Thunderstorm in east central and southeast IL. Potent shortwave
moving through central IL this evening combined with unstable air
and increasing deep layer shear to produce the right conditions
for a couple of supercells to track across the forecast area. A
few t-storms will linger in southeast IL until 03z or so, but
these should be well below severe limits.
In the northern part of the forecast area, a few showers
associated with the cold pool/upper low in northern IL will also
linger for another couple of hours before they rotate to the
northeast out of the region.
The rest of the night will be cloudy in central IL with chilly
temperatures in the mid 40s. Partial clearing will be in store for
southeast IL in the wake of the departing t-storms, but then
clouds will be on the increase overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows stationary frontal boundary extending
from central Indiana southwestward into the Ozarks. Ahead of the
front, temperatures have climbed into the middle 70s and SBCAPE
values have reached the 1500-2000J/kg range south of I-70. This
will be the area of the KILX CWA that will be monitored for
potential severe weather over the next few hours as an upper low
over northern Missouri/southern Iowa shears northeastward and
provides additional synoptic lift. HRRR is showing scattered
convection across the SE CWA in the warm/unstable airmass...and
additional showers/isolated thunder further northwest in closer
proximity to the upper low between now and about 02z/9pm. Given
good convergence along the frontal boundary and strong instability,
think a strong wind/large hail threat will exist with any storms
that fire south of I-70 late this afternoon into the early evening.
Once the sun sets and daytime instability wanes, the convection will
weaken and shift eastward into the Ohio River Valley by mid-evening.
After that, mostly cloudy and cool conditions will prevail for the
balance of the night, with low temperatures ranging from the middle
40s northwest of the Illinois River...to the lower 50s far southeast.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
The upper level trough and surface cyclonic flow is forecast to
remain in place over the Great Lakes region, effecting central and
southeast Illinois through the first part of the week. This will
keep partly sunny and chilly conditions in the area through Wed. In
addition, the cyclonic flow will provide enough focus for
instability showers periodically Mon through Wed. There could be a
break in the scattered pcpn Mon night and Tue, but still keeping a
slight chance of pcpn in the forecast. As the main upper level
system drops down toward Ohio, colder upper level temps will also
arrive, increasing the instability in the area. So have added a
slight chance for thunderstorms, along with the showers for Tue
night and Wed.
Beyond Wed, the pattern should begin to change and sfc ridging
should begin to build into the area. This will push the upper level
system to the east and bring drier weather to the area for the last
half of the weekend. As the high moves across the area, another
weather system will begin to develop in the plains and bring the
return of showers and thunderstorms for possibly next Sunday.
Temps will remain on the cool side through most of the week with the
continued cyclonic flow and general cloudiness. Once the high
pressure moves over the area, temps will begin to warm back up and
should reach into the 70s by the end of the week and into the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Tricky forecast overnight with potential for IFR/LIFR ceilings
across the entire TAF area of central and eastern IL. Plenty of
low level moisture is present in central IL and cyclonic flow is
present from a low in western Ohio, with a trough back toward SE
Iowa. Many of the short range models are advertising a solid IFR
ceiling setting up soon across the area. However, TAF sites from
SPI-DEC-CMI are on the southern edge of the low cloud shield,
which brings into question how quick the ceilings will drop and
stay down.
With the light north to northwest flow that has developed this
evening, the IFR ceilings should settle across the whole region
within the next few hours, and then stay there through much of the
morning hours. Due to the presence of continued surface troughing
and another approaching mid level shortwave trough, it will be
tough to erode the cloud cover Monday afternoon. Will also add
VCSH for the afternoon part of the TAFs with the approaching
shortwave. Should see some breaks in the clouds by evening at PIA
and SPI as the upper trough passes through the region, but in
eastern IL at least MVFR ceilings should persist through 06Z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Miller
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
636 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PARENT SHORT WAVE WAS JUST DROPPING
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES WITH DEEP FORCING AND COLD FRONT ALOFT
AIDING LIFT...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOTED ALONG COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MN AT 19Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED...KEEPING INSTABILITY VERY LOW AND THUNDER POTENTIAL
DOWN...HOWEVER EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY A BIT AS IT
BECOMES HIGH BASED BUT SURFACE ROOTED INTO THE EVENING. SOUNDINGS
DEPICT BASES AROUND 6KFT WITH FULL MIXING UNDERNEATH SO THERE MAY BE
SOME SUB SEVERE WIND GUSTS ABOVE AMBIENT LEVELS FROM TIME TO TIME.
THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR BOTH SHOW IT INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY AS IT
REACHES ERN IA...INCLUDING OUR ERN FORECAST AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXIT OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPS AS WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW.
.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
MAIN CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND A FEW
MINOR IMPULSES GRAZING THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. BEYOND THAT THE
FOCUS SHIFTS TO LONG WAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN UP AND BECOME THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT WAVE NOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
TRAILING COOL FRONT OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z TOMORROW. IN ITS WAKE
H850 TEMPERATURES COOL TO 0C TO 4C NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BY 12Z.
BREEZY WIND WITH 15 TO 25 MPH NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. DESPITE
SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT...OVERALL HIGHS WILL BE SOME 5
TO 7 DEGREES COOLER OVER MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF I35 WHILE WEST
OF I35...TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER CLOSER TO TODAYS LEVELS INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH JUST
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW LIGHT WINDS
TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER A GOOD SHARE OF THE REGION...
EVEN THOUGH GFS HINTS AT SOME RETURN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVER THE FAR NORTH SOME 30S WILL BE LIKELY. BY THURSDAY
SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE WINNIPEG MOVES EAST ALLOWING FOR STRONGER
WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BE DRAWN INTO THE PLAINS. WITH LITTLE RETURN
OF MOISTURE...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ALREADY IN THE 60S/70S AND IN THE 70S/80S ON FRIDAY.
MIXING IS MUCH BETTER ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COOL FRONT
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON INSTABILITY
INCREASING OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOWERS WILL DEPART NORTHERN IA BUT CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH TWO THIRDS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FORECAST INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY
BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH DECENT HAIL CAPE AT THIS TIME...EURO BULK
SHEAR/MUCAPE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WILL MONITOR FOR
TRENDS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE...THE BOUNDARY SLIPS INTO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER STORM BEGINS
TO GATHER IN THE WESTERN PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO THE H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EAST BY THAT TIME. THOUGH
SOLUTIONS DIFFER BETWEEN THE EURO/GFS...MAINLY STANDARD BIASES...
OF TIMING...BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A STRENGTHENING AND MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EVENTUALLY DEEPENS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE PHASING
WITH THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINFALL...WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A CURSORY LOOK AT WIND FIELDS AND
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/PLACEMENT REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
REMAIN MILD...60S AND 70S WILL BE COMMON FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND 50S.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING/
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WESTERLY WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE THIS EVENING. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY PUSH THROUGH KMCW...KALO...AND KFOD WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME LOW VFR CU MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BASES NEAR SCT-BKN050.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...BEERENDS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1148 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
AS OF 3 PM CDT...2 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. BREAKS IN THE STRATUS/CUMULUS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS AT 50 DEGREES. WINDS ARE NORTH AT 10-20
MPH...GUSTING 35 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA...ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING PRECIPITATION-FREE
WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. HOWEVER...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT
EAST. AS THIS HAPPENS...PRECIPITATION COULD SPREAD OVER LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES MOST PRECIPITATION
REMAINS SOUTH OF US-40. IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS...IT WILL BE LIGHT
IN NATURE...AMOUNTING TO LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. THE WEATHER
CONCERN OF HIGHEST INTEREST IS THE CHANCE FOR A FROST/FREEZE. NEAR
TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS
WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR TONIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE LOWS
LESS THAN 36 DEGREES. WITH WINDS DECREASING...FROST DEVELOPMENT IS
FORECAST GENERALLY WEST OF A NORTON KANSAS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS LINE.
A FREEZE IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EAST COLORADO. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE PASSED ALONG FROM THE MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE NOT NEEDED BECAUSE THE TRI-STATE REGION
IS NOT QUITE IN THE GROWING SEASON. RECENT SNOWFALL FURTHER
COMPLICATES THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. FOR
THESE REASONS...WILL NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING BUT
DID MENTION PATCHY/AREAS FROST IN THE FORECAST.
FOR TOMORROW...MUCH WARMER AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID
60S. LOCAL OBSERVERS INDICATE SNOW HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY MELTED SO
AFTER TODAY`S WARMER AND BREEZY WEATHER...DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY
IMPACTS FROM A REMAINING SNOW FIELD. NO PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...TODAYS NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND GEM MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM/ECWMF IN BRINGING A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT WITH QUICK
CLEARING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY LEADING TO A SUNNY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. MAY SEE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF MOISTURE WITH A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
LOWS 30 TO 35 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH INTO MEXICO MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S WEST TO EAST. HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO CLOSE OFF OFF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTH THURSDAY AND MOVING ASHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FOR OUR PART OF THE WORLD THE RIDGE AXIS THAT IS
INITIALLY TO OUR WEST MOVES OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY EAST
WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ABOVE MENTIONED
UPPER LOW. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF BRING
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY EAST ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST EXTENDED FORECAST PROCEDURE HAS REMOVED
PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WHICH I SUPPOSE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS LIMITED
TO THE MID LEVELS AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND. SOMETHING FOR LATER
FORECASTS TO WATCH. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL START TO INCREASE AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. MAY FLIRT
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH MID 40S
TO LOW 50S THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THURSDAYS HIGHS LOOK GOOD...FRIDAYS 850MB
TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN THE 20C TO 25C RANGE (ABOUT 5-
10F WARMER) COMPARED TO THURSDAY. MEX GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH WIDESPREAD 80S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA
I SUPPOSE THE CLOUDS AND THE SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE WIND MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT FULL MIXING AND MEX GUIDANCE VALUES SO FOR
NOW WILL KEEP IT AS IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...FOR THIS MODEL RUN DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE
NEVADA/CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER AREA. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
GFS/ECMWF HAVE BETTER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH DRY AIR ALOFT
TO THE WEST. EXTENDED PROCEDURE HAS BETTER POPS OVER THE AREA WHERE
DRIER AIR EXISTS AND LOWER POPS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS. TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO
WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT PRESENT TIME AND KEEP SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH GENERALLY SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S (WEST
TO EAST) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S (WEST TO EAST). THIS
SEEMS A BIT COOL COMPARED TO 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 21-25C RANGE
WHICH UNDER FULL MIXING SUPPORT READINGS ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER
AND CLOSER TO THE MEX GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...A RATHER LARGE AREA OF LOW MOISTURE IN THE
850-500MB LAYER COVERS THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHICH
WOULD NOT SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES INCREASE A BIT SUNDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE WHERE BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS AND EXTENDED
FORECAST PROCEDURE HANDLED THIS MUCH BETTER. AFTER MORNING LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 40S TO MID 50S
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
SHOULD AT LEAST REACH ADVERTISED READINGS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70
WEST...LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE BORDER. 850MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST READINGS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND
GLD. CLOUDS COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AFTER 00Z MONDAY
EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING BETWEEN 00Z-
06Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1230 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
...Updated Short Term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Cloud canopy across SW Kansas will gradually erode through the
morning hours, as weak shortwave moves east. Atmosphere dries out
substantially on Monday, allowing for much more sunshine.
Afternoon temperatures will recover nicely from Sunday`s
unseasonably cold readings, into the lower 60s, but this is still
about 10 degrees below normal for early May. Still a much more
pleasant day for Monday, given NW winds much more behaved at only
10-20 mph.
A mostly clear sky overnight will allow radiational cooling to
send temperatures below normal again, with lows at sunrise Tuesday
morning ranging from the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Some increase
in cloud cover towards dawn Tuesday, as a weak shortwave
approaches from the north.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
An upper level lobe of energy will move southward across the
Northern Plains and into the Central Plains Monday night into
Tuesday. The only way this will affect the weather pattern at the
surface is to push the dome of high pressure south into the
Southern Plains. Cloud cover will continue to decrease during this
time frame with winds shifting to more of a northwest direction.
An upper level ridge will then build above the Rockies Tuesday
night through Thursday then shift eastward into the Plains
Thursday night into Friday. No significant weather is expected
during this time frame with mostly clear skies and dry conditions.
Meanwhile, a large upper level low is progged to move into the
Western United States Thursday and Friday then over the Four
Corners this weekend. Mid to upper level cloudiness will increase
as this feature approaches with winds shifting to the south.
Precipitation chances increase across the area this weekend with a
few storms possibly becoming severe Saturday afternoon and again
Sunday afternoon. Confidence is still low on the timing and
position of this system so future runs will be looked at closely.
A warming trend is expected through Friday with highs reaching
into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees by Friday. Lows look to
start out around 40 degrees Monday night then slowly rise into the
low to mid 50s by this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Scattered -SHRA near DDC will end over the next few hours. Much
improved flying weather on Monday, with VFR expected. Decreasing
clouds through 12z, followed by only scattered clouds or SKC
Monday afternoon. After 15z Monday, NW surface winds of 10-20 kts,
with winds going light and variable around 00z Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 38 62 40 69 / 30 10 10 10
GCK 38 62 39 69 / 20 10 10 0
EHA 37 60 38 69 / 60 10 10 10
LBL 39 62 37 70 / 60 10 10 10
HYS 39 63 40 70 / 20 10 10 0
P28 42 65 42 72 / 50 10 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
...Updated Aviation...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Realigned pop/weather/QPF grids for the rest of tonight, to match
radar and HRRR trends. Rain showers will continue south and SE of
Dodge City for the next several hours, with light rainfall
amounts, before ending by sunrise. No other changes.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Light to moderate rain showers will continue across the southern
half of the CWA this evening spreading northeastward overnight.
This is due to a weak shortwave moving over the area. Otherwise
expect mostly cloudy skies through tonight. These showers are
expected to diminish by sunrise tomorrow with decreasing
cloudiness throughout the day tomorrow. Winds will generally be
from a northerly direction through tomorrow as a dome of high
pressure sits across the area. Below normal temperatures continue
with lows tonight ranging from the lower 30s across portions of
west central Kansas to lower 40s across portions of south central
Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to reach into the lower 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
An upper level lobe of energy will move southward across the
Northern Plains and into the Central Plains Monday night into
Tuesday. The only way this will affect the weather pattern at the
surface is to push the dome of high pressure south into the
Southern Plains. Cloud cover will continue to decrease during this
time frame with winds shifting to more of a northwest direction.
An upper level ridge will then build above the Rockies Tuesday
night through Thursday then shift eastward into the Plains
Thursday night into Friday. No significant weather is expected
during this time frame with mostly clear skies and dry conditions.
Meanwhile, a large upper level low is progged to move into the
Western United States Thursday and Friday then over the Four
Corners this weekend. Mid to upper level cloudiness will increase
as this feature approaches with winds shifting to the south.
Precipitation chances increase across the area this weekend with a
few storms possibly becoming severe Saturday afternoon and again
Sunday afternoon. Confidence is still low on the timing and
position of this system so future runs will be looked at closely.
A warming trend is expected through Friday with highs reaching
into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees by Friday. Lows look to
start out around 40 degrees Monday night then slowly rise into the
low to mid 50s by this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Scattered -SHRA near DDC will end over the next few hours. Much
improved flying weather on Monday, with VFR expected. Decreasing
clouds through 12z, followed by only scattered clouds or SKC
Monday afternoon. After 15z Monday, NW surface winds of 10-20 kts,
with winds going light and variable around 00z Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 38 63 41 69 / 30 10 10 10
GCK 38 63 41 69 / 20 10 0 0
EHA 37 61 41 69 / 60 10 10 10
LBL 39 62 41 70 / 60 10 10 10
HYS 39 62 40 70 / 20 10 0 0
P28 42 64 42 72 / 50 10 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1039 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
PARTIAL CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME TEMPERATURE DROP OFF IN
PLACES...HOWEVER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO MOVE BACK IN
OVERNIGHT...SO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S STILL LOOK ON TARGET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...AND THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS AT LEAST WEAK RETURNS AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE UPDATED TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DOTTING PORTION OF THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO
ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FEATURE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE APPALACHIAN REGION AS THE
BOUNDARY THAT HAD SPARKED SOME SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST. WITH STOUT LOW PRESSURE
EXITING THE AREA AND THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT.
WITH A FEW BREAKS TODAY IN THE CLOUD COVER...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DID DEVELOP AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE SOUTH. AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THE AREA TONIGHT A FEW
SHOWERS WILL POP UP AGAIN THE NORTH. THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG UNLIKELY. HEADING INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH A DECENT GRADIENT IN
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THE
FRONT...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. WILL EXPECT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT...SOME LOWER FREEZING
HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL. A COLD CORE
LOW STALLING OVERHEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER. IN
FACT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
30S. OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY...COOL...AND A FEW SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS
PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN
TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR
NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO
LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR
THE BEGINNING OF MAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING
INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
12 TO 15 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...WITH
PLACES IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...INCLUDING SJS...LIKELY SEEING A
WINDOW OF MVFR BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE SEEN
OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE WILL BE LIGHT AND LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIKELY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY IN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1058 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHALLENGING CONVECTIVE FCST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NSSL WRF-
ARW AND NCAR ENSEMBLES SHOW LITTLE CONVECTION TIL ABOUT 20Z-21Z.
MORNING RAOBS AT ABERDEEN AND DULLES SHOWED A DECENT INVERSION
THAT WILL STILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME WITH MAXT IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE CINH REMAINING THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AT DULLES. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SEVERE WX.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW LOW CLOUDS REMAINING EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BUT THINNING OUT SOME ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-66. USING A
24-HR TREND FOR TEMPERATURES FROM VARIOUS MODELS AND APPLYING TO
YDAY`S HIGH BRINGS HIGHS TO NEAR 80F SOUTHERN AREAS...MID 70S
AROUND DC AND ONLY MID 60S IN NORTHEAST MD. THINK THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WX WILL BE OVER CHARLOTTESVILLE...FREDERICKSBURG AND
SOUTHERN MD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW MULTIPLE SFC WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
FROM WV ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT. RAIN/SHOWERS APPEAR DEFINITE
TONIGHT WITH RAIN BEGINNING TO PULL OUT OF THE REGION TUE MORNING.
FCST WAS UPDATED TO LOWER POPS TODAY AND INCREASE POPS TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE XTND PD WL BE THE UPR TROF SITUATED
OVR THE NERN U.S. WED NGT-FRI. THIS WL ENSURE XTNSV CLD CVR FOR
THE AREA ALONG W/ CHCS FOR RAFL. HIGH TEMPS - IN THE 60S...WL BE
ABT TEN DEGS BLO NRML FOR ERLY MAY.
LOW IS XPCTD TO LIFT TO THE NE SAT...BRINGING A RETURN VISIT FM
THE SUN. AFTN HTG COULD BRING A CHC OF RW/TRW SAT. A CD FNT MAY
PUSH THRU THE RGN SUNDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHC FOR PCPN.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. CIGS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY BUT DROP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN RAIN.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
TAPERING OFF LATE TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED MARGINAL CONDS.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE SHOWERS.
XTNSV CLD CVR WL BE IN THE FCST OVR THE MID ATLC WED NGT-
FRI...SUB-VFR CIGS MAY BE PSBL AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MAY WARRANT SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS...PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS XPCTD TO STAY BLO SCA LVLS DURG THE SECOND HALF OF THE WK.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...LFR/ABW
MARINE...LFR/ABW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
732 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE RODCKIES NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN CANADA RESULTING IN
NNW FLOW FROM MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALEY AND WRN LAKES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NW LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LOW PRES JUST
WEST OF JAMES BAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ASSOCIATED 800-600 MB FGEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF UPPER MI. SOME ISOLD
TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR CYQT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS STRONGEST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FGEN AREA SLIDES TO THE SE AND THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. SOME ISOLD TSRA WILL ALSO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT. CAA WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS.
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LATE TONIGHT WHERE NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IS STRONGEST OVER THE N CNTRL UPPER MI. AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROP AFTER 06Z...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. WITH LOWS
ONLY TO AROUND 34...ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
GRASSY SURFACES.
WEDNESDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO IN/OH
KEEPING COLD NRLY FLOW GOING INTO UPPER MI. EXPECT ENOUGH DEEP
MOISTURE TO LINGER WITH SATURATION NEAR -8C TO -10C LAYER TO
MINIMIZE DZ CHANCES. SO...UPSLOPE SOME SN/RA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI IN THE MORNING WITH POTENTIAL TO TRANSITION TO
SOME DZ BY AFTERNOON AS THE 850-600 MOISTURE DEPARTS. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO 50
SOUTH EVEN AS SUNSHINE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY GIVES WAY TO RISING
HEIGHTS THU INTO FRI AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST. SFC
HIGH MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH DRY WEATHER. BLO FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY OVER INTERIOR WEST BENEATH RIDGE AXIS ON WED NIGHT.
ONCE THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST...WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES
WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AWAY FM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH READINGS INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT
WINDS LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING AND H85 TEMPS 14-
16C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
DESPITE THE WARMTH...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS SFC-
H85 DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE SO MIN RH SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THU
AND LIKE THU THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRASHES THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED
WITH THE FROPA. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF TSRA WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /H7-H5 LAPSE RATES CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE
AT 6.5C/KM AND MUCAPE UP TO 250 J/KG/...BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DO NOT EXPECT
STRONG TSRA. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BUT
MOSTLY DRY. GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20
MPH INLAND. IF WATER TEMPS WERE WARMER ON LK SUPERIOR SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED SWIM RISK. CURRENT WATER TEMPS AROUND 40 IN
THE NEARSHORE SO NOT AN ISSUE QUITE YET.
WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF EXTENDED /DAYTIME HIGHS 60S AND MAYBE
SLIGHTLY WARMER/ AS UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER GREAT LAKES.
DIFFERENCES ARISE MON INTO TUE ON HOW QUICK UPPER TROUGH BRINGS SFC
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS QUICKEST WHILE GEM
IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE.
REGARDLESS...WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TOO HIGH IMPACT AS EVEN WITH
GFS IDEA BULK OF HIGHER INSTABILITY BOTH SFC AND ELEVATED REMAINS
TOO FAR SW TO BRING ANY STRONGER TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS UPR MICHIGAN.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TUE SHOWS MORE CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ATTM...BUT IF THE SLOWER IDEA WORKS OUT...DRY WEATHER WOULD HOLD
UNTIL LATE TUE AND TUE WOULD BECOME MORE OF A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE
WITH TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE U.P. THIS EVENING.
COLDER AIR AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT KSAW WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO WED AFTERNOON. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED
AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBY. KCMX AND KIWD WILL BE FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
LESS LIKELY THERE...BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE TO SEE A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS
OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
410 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN MANITOBA INTO
THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO NRN
MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY HAS BROUGHT LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE TO UPPER
MI WITH INLAND CU INLAND WEST AND NEAR LAKE MI OVER THE EAST.
TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE SE LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NRN ONTARIO. ADVANCING WAA MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING FROM DEVELOPING SW
GRADIENT WIND BETWEEN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING TROUGH
SHOULD ALLOW FALLING TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN CLIMB TOWARD
SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
CENTRAL AND EAST. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE 40 NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WEST.
TUESDAY...THE VIGOROUS NRN MANITOBA SHRTWV TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INTO THE NRN LAKES BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH
THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 250-300 MB JET. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE
200-400 J/KG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT
SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE CNTRL
AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES... TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES INTO THE
25-35 PCT RANGE WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z WED THAT
DIGS SOUTHWARD ON WED AND DIGS A DEEP TROUGH THAT AFFECTS THE EAST
COAST 00Z FRI. THE NAM TAKES SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE CWA 00Z WED AND MOVES IT OUT ON WED.
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL AND WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES. DID KEEP PCPN
IN FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AND STILL LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL. KEPT IT
DRY FOR WED NIGHT AND THEN LOOKED LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SLIGHT
POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR THU MORNING.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 500 MB TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS
AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS 12Z FRI. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES 12Z FRI THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE
AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT AND MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
ON MON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TUE MORNING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. IN ADDITION...SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT IWD AND SAW BY LATE MORNING BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITION BELOW VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO
20 KNOTS. AS RIDGE SAGS SE TONIGHT...WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME
N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH WINDS TO
LESS THAN 20KT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
259 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WRN
NORTH AMERICA WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NORTH
AMERICA INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED
IN A WEAK NW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE
REGION CLOUD-FREE OVERNIGHT. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
SHALLOW PATCHY FOG AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING OVER IRONWOOD AREA
WHERE SFC OBS INDICATE CONDITIONS NEAR SATURATION AND WHERE SFC HIGH
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE AT 12Z. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE WITH DIURNAL MIXING.
TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL AGAIN ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE REACHING THE FARTHEST
INLAND. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CU DEVELOPMENT
ALONG LAKE BREEZES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA IN THE EVENING WILL SLIDE SE LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NRN ONTARIO. ADVANCING
WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING FROM
DEVELOPING SW GRADIENT WIND BTWN DEPARTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FALLING TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER...UNTIL THEN GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO LOWER NEAR
THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS INTERIOR WEST AND
CENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z WED THAT
DIGS SOUTHWARD ON WED AND DIGS A DEEP TROUGH THAT AFFECTS THE EAST
COAST 00Z FRI. THE NAM TAKES SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE CWA 00Z WED AND MOVES IT OUT ON WED.
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL AND WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES. DID KEEP PCPN
IN FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AND STILL LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL. KEPT IT
DRY FOR WED NIGHT AND THEN LOOKED LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SLIGHT
POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR THU MORNING.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 500 MB TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS
AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS 12Z FRI. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES 12Z FRI THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE
AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT AND MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
ON MON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TUE MORNING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. IN ADDITION...SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT IWD AND SAW BY LATE MORNING BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITION BELOW VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO
20 KNOTS. AS RIDGE SAGS SE TONIGHT...WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME
N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH WINDS TO
LESS THAN 20KT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
137 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WRN
NORTH AMERICA WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NORTH
AMERICA INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED
IN A WEAK NW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE
REGION CLOUD-FREE OVERNIGHT. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
SHALLOW PATCHY FOG AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING OVER IRONWOOD AREA
WHERE SFC OBS INDICATE CONDITIONS NEAR SATURATION AND WHERE SFC HIGH
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE AT 12Z. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE WITH DIURNAL MIXING.
TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL AGAIN ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE REACHING THE FARTHEST
INLAND. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CU DEVELOPMENT
ALONG LAKE BREEZES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA IN THE EVENING WILL SLIDE SE LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NRN ONTARIO. ADVANCING
WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING FROM
DEVELOPING SW GRADIENT WIND BTWN DEPARTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FALLING TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER...UNTIL THEN GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO LOWER NEAR
THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS INTERIOR WEST AND
CENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
TUESDAY...A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WILL BRING THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN TO
UPPER MICHIGAN IN OVER A WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SSE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...INITIATING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY INCREASING MID TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S
INLAND. ADDITIONALLY...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25MPH FOR THE WEST LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
AFTER A WEEK OF DRYING...FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED FOR
TUESDAY. FIRE WX INDICES FOR ALL FUELS...ESPECIALLY GRASSY
FUELS...HAVE BEEN BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AREAS OF
MOST CONCERN INCLUDE THE INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE SE HALF IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SLOW WHILE
CROSSING THE REGION...RESULTING IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
INLAND AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. BLUSTERY NNW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS...TEMPS IN THE 40S...WILL PRODUCE A RATHER CHILLY DAY FOR
EARLY MAY. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR MAY FAIL TO
REACH 40F.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
QUICKER WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH A SURGE OF WARMER
AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...HAVE TRENDED WARMER
WITH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS LOOKS TO TOP OUT WELL IN THE 70S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WEST. WINDS LOOK RATHER LIGHT...SO FIRE WX CONCERNS
WILL BE LOWER ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TUE MORNING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. IN ADDITION...SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT IWD AND SAW BY LATE MORNING BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITION BELOW VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO
20 KNOTS. AS RIDGE SAGS SE TONIGHT...WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME
N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH WINDS TO
LESS THAN 20KT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
733 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WRN
NORTH AMERICA WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NORTH
AMERICA INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED
IN A WEAK NW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE
REGION CLOUD-FREE OVERNIGHT. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
SHALLOW PATCHY FOG AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING OVER IRONWOOD AREA
WHERE SFC OBS INDICATE CONDITIONS NEAR SATURATION AND WHERE SFC HIGH
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE AT 12Z. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE WITH DIURNAL MIXING.
TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL AGAIN ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE REACHING THE FARTHEST
INLAND. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CU DEVELOPMENT
ALONG LAKE BREEZES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA IN THE EVENING WILL SLIDE SE LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NRN ONTARIO. ADVANCING
WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING FROM
DEVELOPING SW GRADIENT WIND BTWN DEPARTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FALLING TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER...UNTIL THEN GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO LOWER NEAR
THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS INTERIOR WEST AND
CENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
TUESDAY...A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WILL BRING THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN TO
UPPER MICHIGAN IN OVER A WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SSE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...INITIATING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY INCREASING MID TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S
INLAND. ADDITIONALLY...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25MPH FOR THE WEST LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
AFTER A WEEK OF DRYING...FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED FOR
TUESDAY. FIRE WX INDICES FOR ALL FUELS...ESPECIALLY GRASSY
FUELS...HAVE BEEN BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AREAS OF
MOST CONCERN INCLUDE THE INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE SE HALF IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SLOW WHILE
CROSSING THE REGION...RESULTING IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
INLAND AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. BLUSTERY NNW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS...TEMPS IN THE 40S...WILL PRODUCE A RATHER CHILLY DAY FOR
EARLY MAY. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR MAY FAIL TO
REACH 40F.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
QUICKER WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH A SURGE OF WARMER
AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...HAVE TRENDED WARMER
WITH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS LOOKS TO TOP OUT WELL IN THE 70S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WEST. WINDS LOOK RATHER LIGHT...SO FIRE WX CONCERNS
WILL BE LOWER ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS AT KCMX TOWARD TUE
MORNING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM ONTARIO.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO
20 KNOTS. AS RIDGE SAGS SE TONIGHT...WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME
N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH WINDS TO
LESS THAN 20KT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
422 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WRN
NORTH AMERICA WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NORTH
AMERICA INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED
IN A WEAK NW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE
REGION CLOUD-FREE OVERNIGHT. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
SHALLOW PATCHY FOG AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING OVER IRONWOOD AREA
WHERE SFC OBS INDICATE CONDITIONS NEAR SATURATION AND WHERE SFC HIGH
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE AT 12Z. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE WITH DIURNAL MIXING.
TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL AGAIN ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE REACHING THE FARTHEST
INLAND. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CU DEVELOPMENT
ALONG LAKE BREEZES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA IN THE EVENING WILL SLIDE SE LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NRN ONTARIO. ADVANCING
WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING FROM
DEVELOPING SW GRADIENT WIND BTWN DEPARTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FALLING TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER...UNTIL THEN GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO LOWER NEAR
THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS INTERIOR WEST AND
CENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
TUESDAY...A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WILL BRING THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN TO
UPPER MICHIGAN IN OVER A WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SSE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...INITIATING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY INCREASING MID TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S
INLAND. ADDITIONALLY...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25MPH FOR THE WEST LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
AFTER A WEEK OF DRYING...FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED FOR
TUESDAY. FIRE WX INDICES FOR ALL FUELS...ESPECIALLY GRASSY
FUELS...HAVE BEEN BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AREAS OF
MOST CONCERN INCLUDE THE INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE SE HALF IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SLOW WHILE
CROSSING THE REGION...RESULTING IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
INLAND AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. BLUSTERY NNW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS...TEMPS IN THE 40S...WILL PRODUCE A RATHER CHILLY DAY FOR
EARLY MAY. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR MAY FAIL TO
REACH 40F.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
QUICKER WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH A SURGE OF WARMER
AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...HAVE TRENDED WARMER
WITH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS LOOKS TO TOP OUT WELL IN THE 70S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WEST. WINDS LOOK RATHER LIGHT...SO FIRE WX CONCERNS
WILL BE LOWER ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMING AT KIWD FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. WL
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIFR FOG TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO
20 KNOTS. AS RIDGE SAGS SE TONIGHT...WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME
N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH WINDS TO
LESS THAN 20KT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
401 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A REX BLOCK OVER WRN NOAM
RESULTING IN WEAK NW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING N TO NE
WINDS INTO MOST OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WAS WEAK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. VIS LOOP
SHOWED CU OVER THE INLAND WEST AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREA IN
THE E HALF.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO UPPER MI WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WEST
AND TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER THE REST OF THE CWA.
MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHRTWV
REMAINING WELL TO THE SE OVER THE ERN LAKES. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL
AGAIN ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR
BREEZE REACHING THE FARTHEST INLAND. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MI 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH CU DEVELPMENT SIMILAR TO TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
TUESDAY...A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WILL BRING THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN TO
UPPER MICHIGAN IN OVER A WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SSE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...INITIATING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY INCREASING MID TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S
INLAND. ADDITIONALLY...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25MPH FOR THE WEST LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
AFTER A WEEK OF DRYING...FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED FOR
TUESDAY. FIRE WX INDICES FOR ALL FUELS...ESPECIALLY GRASSY
FUELS...HAVE BEEN BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AREAS OF
MOST CONCERN INCLUDE THE INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE SE HALF IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SLOW WHILE
CROSSING THE REGION...RESULTING IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
INLAND AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. BLUSTERY NNW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS...TEMPS IN THE 40S...WILL PRODUCE A RATHER CHILLY DAY FOR
EARLY MAY. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR MAY FAIL TO
REACH 40F.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
QUICKER WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH A SURGE OF WARMER
AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...HAVE TRENDED WARMER
WITH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS LOOKS TO TOP OUT WELL IN THE 70S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WEST. WINDS LOOK RATHER LIGHT...SO FIRE WX CONCERNS
WILL BE LOWER ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMING AT KIWD FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. WL
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIFR FOG TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 20 KNOTS. WSW
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
224 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A REX BLOCK OVER WRN NOAM
RESULTING IN WEAK NW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING N TO NE
WINDS INTO MOST OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WAS WEAK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. VIS LOOP
SHOWED CU OVER THE INLAND WEST AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREA IN
THE E HALF.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO UPPER MI WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WEST
AND TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER THE REST OF THE CWA.
MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHRTWV
REMAINING WELL TO THE SE OVER THE ERN LAKES. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL
AGAIN ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR
BREEZE REACHING THE FARTHEST INLAND. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MI 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH CU DEVELPMENT SIMILAR TO TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
THROUGH THE WEEK...RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF VARYING
AMPLITUDE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF CANADA WITH
HEIGHT ANOMALIES PEAKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL IN
TURN FAVOR TROFFING OVER ERN N AMERICA WITH THE TROF REACHING PEAK
AMPLITUDE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...ENERGY
APPROACHING THE W COAST WILL SPLIT...RESULTING IN DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER SW CONUS CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW LATER THIS WEEK. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE UPPER LAKES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PEAKING WRN CANADA RIDGE...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE FORCED
TO DROP FARTHER S INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE/WED WITH COLD
FROPA OCCURRING TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS FROPA BRINGS THE BEST CHC OF
PCPN THIS WEEK. WITH DECENT FORCING...POPS AT LEAST INTO THE HIGH
CHC TO LOW LIKELY CATEGORY APPEAR REASONABLE FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING.
DECENT FORCING/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND A LITTLE
INSTABILITY WITH FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. DEPENDING ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE MID LEVEL TROF
BECOMES...SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY LINGER INTO WED. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
RUNS YESTERDAY TRENDED TOWARD MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPMENT CLOSE ENOUGH
TO UPPER MI TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PCPN ON WED. SINCE THEN...
GUIDANCE HAS WAIVERED ON THIS IDEA. WILL LARGELY MAINTAIN CONTINUITY
WITH PREVIOUS FCST IN SHOWING SCHC POPS (CHC ACROSS THE NCNTRL AND
E) INTO WED MORNING. IF THERE IS ANY PCPN...MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AS THERMAL TROF WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-4C WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. 00Z/12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE WRN CANADA RIDGE WILL PASS
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO SAT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES. ALTHOUGH THIS A NEW DEVELOPMENT WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE 12Z RUNS BACK UP THE POSSIBILITY. AS A RESULT..SCHC
TO LOW CHC POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR SAT.
AS FOR TEMPS...THE PATTERN THIS WEEK FAVORS NORMAL TO BLO NORMAL
TEMPS FOR UPPER MI ON THE MAJORITY OF DAYS. NIGHTTIME MINS WILL
STILL BE DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE INTERIOR ON AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS. TUE WILL BE ONE OF THE WARMER DAYS AS W TO SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WHICH ARRIVES IN
THE AFTN/EVENING. WARMTH ON TUE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT/CLOUD COVER AND SHRA...BUT RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S. MUCH COOLER WEATHER...
ESPECIALLY NOTABLE CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FOLLOW FOR WED
UNDER BRISK N WINDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK SOLIDLY BLO NORMAL WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR NO HIGHER THAN AROUND 40F. EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WITH 850MB THERMAL TROF OVER THE AREA...
FURTHER SUPPORTING COOL CONDITIONS. MODERATION WILL OCCUR THU WITH
MORE WARMING FRI AND POSSIBLY ON INTO SAT...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. RECENT
GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE INDICATED THAT FRI AND/OR SAT COULD BE QUITE
WARM WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. WILL TURN COOLER AGAIN
FOR SUN. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...NAEFS OUTLOOKS ARE SUGGESTING A
TREND TOWARD AN OVERALL SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMP REGIME DURING THE
SECOND WEEK OF MAY.
EVEN IF MOST AREAS SEE SOME PCPN TUE...AMOUNTS WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT
AND WON`T REALLY AFFECT WHAT IS BECOMING AN EXTENDED DRY SPELL FOR
UPPER MI. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY COOL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT...WILL KEEP GREENUP SLOW. THUS...FIRE WX WILL BE AN ISSUE AT
TIMES FOR THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. THIS WEEK...TUE STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
DAY OF MOST CONCERN AS IT SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY WITH POTENTIAL OF
BREEZY W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS/-SHRA ARRIVE SOONER...FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE EASED. IF THE
COLD FRONT MATERIALIZES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER DAY WITH ELEVATED
FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL OCCUR ON THE DAY PRIOR TO ITS PASSAGE OR THE
DAY OF FROPA...EITHER FRI OR SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMING AT KIWD FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. WL
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIFR FOG TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 20 KNOTS. WSW
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1240 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.AVIATION...
A WELL ORGANIZED ARC OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE
WARM ADVECTION WING OF THE INBOUND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT PROGS SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS REMOVED
RAINFALL MENTION FOR KMBS...OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT LARGELY TO THE
PREVIOUS TAF NARRATIVES. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER/BRIEF VCTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KDTW...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED IT TO THE TAF YET. FEEL THERE
IS JUST TOO LOW OF A CHANCE AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WORK UP THE
COLUMN...UP THE FRONTAL SLOPE. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY UNDER THE LONGEST STRETCH/DURATION OF THE
COMPACT RADIUS DEFORMATION FORCING. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE
OVER SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...JUST A MATTER OF TIME
BEFORE THIS SLIDES INTO DETROIT. REFRAINED FROM LIFR IN THE TAFS
ATTM...WITH A LACK OF OBSERVATIONAL SUPPORT UPSTREAM. PERSISTENT
OVERCAST IS FORECASTED FOR MONDAY BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE A BETTER
SIGNAL FOR CIG TREND TO MVFR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW...CIGS WILL LOWER BACK INTO IFR MOMENTARILY WITH GREATEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION SUPPORT WASHING ACROSS SOTUHEASTERN MICHIGAN.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIFR BUT NO UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THIS ATTM. A THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WORK UP THE FRONTAL SLOPE WHICH SEVERLY
COMPROMISES ANY CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY HERE. THERE IS A RELATIVELY
STRONGER SIGNAL IN SUPPORT FOR MVFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT
* LOW FOR CIG AOB 200 FT 6-12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 929 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
UPDATE...
THE IMPENDING WEATHER EPISODE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE (STILL A CLOSED CIRCULATION
ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) THAT WILL OPEN AND TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 03-12Z TONIGHT.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF ITEMS WORTH DISCUSSION. THE FIRST IS THE
AMOUNT/VIGOR OF THUNDERSTORM/SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SIFTING THROUGH MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT LOCATED NEAR INDIANAPOLIS EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO. ITS PROBABLY NOT A LOT...BUT THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY
BALANCE HAS BEEN FAVORABLE. NWP SUGGESTS THAT SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FROM 00-06Z IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW
STATIC STABILITY IN THE MIDLEVELS...WITH 850-500MB LAPSE RATES
INCREASING TO OR IN EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z. NOT
OVERLY TRUSTWORTHY OF THE 18Z NAM...AS IT IS SHOWING SOME PECULIAR
REDISTRIBUTION IN THE MASS FIELDS IN THE 3 HOURLY OUTPUT. THE NET
RESULT BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS AND THE FORECASTED MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR FOR THE DETROIT METRO
AREA SOUTHWARD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ACTIVITY
REMAINING ELEVATED WITH NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE 2ND ITEM TO DISCUSS IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IDEA IS ASCERTAINED WITH THE
LOOK OF AND AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS...VERY SMALL
CURVATURE/RADIUS TO THE DEFORMATION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL LIKELY STREAK DIRECTLY ACROSS IN SOME
CONFIGURATION DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN DTX CWA. SO...WITH THE
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A REASONABLE DURATION OF LENGTH...COULD
SEE VERY QUICK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1.0 INCH
POSSIBLE. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO EXCEED 1.0 INCH LATE THIS
EVENING. LATEST RAP AND HRRR...SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AXIS MAY OCCUR DIRECTLY SOUTH OF MICHIGAN BORDER OVER OHIO.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT IT WILL REMAIN THAT FAR
SOUTH. THERE IS TYPICALLY ERROR IN WHAT PORTION OF THE ELEVATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FIRE. PREFER SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THIS
INSTANCE...DIRECTLY IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST/SHARPEST OF DIRECT
DCVA.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 334 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AND NORTHEAST FLOW OFF
THE LAKES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE ONLY A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO SPILL OVER THE AREA.
UPPER LOW OVER NE/IA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT...OPENING AS IT BEGINS
TO PHASE WITH THE BAGGY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA. UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
AND THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE LOW CENTER
LOOKING TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVER OHIO. SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE REGION...ELEVATED PORTIONS OF WHICH
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG
THE FRONT LOOKS TO INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT...WITH FORCING ALSO GETTING A BOOST FROM LEFT EXIT REGION
FORCING FROM A JET STREAK TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PROMPT A NICE
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF RAIN TONIGHT...WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION AS
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO 7-8 C/KM. HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG/SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR...CLOSER TO WHERE A
WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE FEEDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. DEFORMATION AREA AND ASSOCIATED RAIN LOOK TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA BY SUNRISE AS THE LOW QUICKLY SCOOTS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND
BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS. COOLER AIR SPILLING IN
ALOFT BEHIND THE LOW...ENHANCED BY ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSING FROM
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...WILL PROMOTE STEEP LAPSE RATES UP THROUGH
ABOUT 750MB AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
INCONSISTENT WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT UP THROUGH AN
INVERSION POSITIONED JUST ABOVE THIS LEVEL...WITH NAM MUCH MORE
MOIST THAN GFS. NAM WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME MORNING DRIZZLE AS SOME DRYING OCCURS IN
THE MID LEVELS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING RAIN MENTION AND STICK WITH
JUST CLOUDS BASED ON GFS/EURO...AS NAM SOMETIMES CARRIES A BIAS WITH
TOO MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WARMING WILL BE TEMPERED BY SOME CLOUD
COVER (ESPECIALLY SOUTH) AND NORTH FLOW...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO REACH THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MIXING ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH SHOULD BRING NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH
MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 60S.
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO WORK DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT PER LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
CUTOFF UPPER LOW PROGGED BY GLOBAL MODELS TO DRIFT OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER HEIGHTS LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
RESULT WILL BE COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LEADING TO A SOLID WARMING AND
DRYING TREND.
MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO
TONIGHT...GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT SOME CHANNELING ACROSS SAGINAW BAY
TO SUPPORT GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS INTO THE EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT TOMORROW WILL SUPPORT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT STILL 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
HYDROLOGY...
A COMPACT AND FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH AROUND HALF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M59 CORRIDOR. THE BULK OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM LOCAL TIME. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED...WITH
JUST MODEST RISE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS...ALONG WITH PONDING/STANDING
WATER IN NORMALLY PRONE LOW LYING AREAS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MR
UPDATE.......CB
DISCUSSION...HLO/DT
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
400 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM SUNDAY...
ONE LONE MODEST CELL PASSED OVER THE TRIAD RECENTLY... BUT OTHERWISE
THE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE SRN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE APPROACHED BUT FAILED TO
SURVIVE THE TRIP INTO THE FORECAST AREA DESPITE THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE (PW OF 150-175% OF NORMAL). WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING (FOSTERING THE GROWTH IN CINH OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS) AND
IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT (WITH
FAIRLY FLAT WSW MID LEVEL FLOW AND NO DISTINCT LOW LEVEL JETTING)...
EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL NC FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD BE SEEING A SLIGHT
RISE IN PW OVERNIGHT ACCORDING TO THE RAP IN CONJUNCTION WITH
PASSAGE OF A WAVE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WV/VA/MD (PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EVENING`S SEVERE WEATHER OVER WV/WRN VA)... AND
THIS MAY BRUSH OVER THE FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE CWA. IN ADDITION...
POOLING OF HIGHER PW OVER THE SE CWA AS IS PROJECTED BY SEVERAL
MODELS MAY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS THERE TOWARD MORNING. THE LATEST RAP RUN SUPPORTS THIS WITH A
MOISTENING COLUMN LATE TONIGHT AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF LINGERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL RETAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR N/NE
AND OVER THE SE LATER TONIGHT. BASED ON THE WEAK MBE MOVEMENT NOTED
BY THE RAP AND DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL-0C NEARING 4 KM)... LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH SLOW-MOVING AND/OR TRAINING CELLS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING IN THE SE CWA. MILD LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...
A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY AND
THEN SWING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT.... FINALLY GIVING
THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM EAST TX TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES A KICK TO THE EAST. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS NC
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF/NAM IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND NAM FAVOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE
EVENING. DEEP SHEAR IS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 40-50KT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST. CAPE IS LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN GIVEN 1) THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING PRECIP OVER WESTERN NC
EARLY TUESDAY TO INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND 2) WESTERLY FLOW AND DEEPER MIXING TO LOWER DEWPOINTS (AGAIN
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT). GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST100-
1500JKG MLCAPE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...THE COASTAL PLAIN IS
FAVORED FOR STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 70S.
THE SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOW IN THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WHILE IT
APPROACHES THE COAST. LOWS 54-59.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...
AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER
LOW DROPPING SLOWLY OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND CAROLINAS. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES HAVE ADVERTISED THIS UPPER
LOW AS 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL. H10-H85 THICKNESSES DROPPING TO AROUND
1340M BY FRIDAY MORNING SUPPORT THE IDEA OF HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE COOLEST MEX GUIDANCE INDICATING MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S THURS/FRI. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
PERIODIC DCVA COMBINED WITH A POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED STORMS (MAINLY AFTERNOON) THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL AND MOVE EAST BY
SATURDAY...WITH RIDGING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS NC. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TO AND ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...
AREAS OF STRATUS...IN MOIST/HUMID SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW BELOW A
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AROUND 1500 FT...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE AND CEILING HEIGHTS ARE BOTH
LIKELY TO BE MORE VARIABLE THAN IN RECENT DAYS. IN ADDITION...A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST IN A DEEPLY MOIST AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS MORNING...WITH THE RELATIVE
MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE AT KFAY.
OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT THROUGH MVFR RANGE AND SCATTER
BETWEEN 13-16Z. SUBSEQUENT DIURNAL HEATING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
HUMID AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPORT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AN APPALACHIAN LEE
SURFACE TROUGH AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION - BEST CONVEYED WITH A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME RANGE.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN LINGER OVERNIGHT...AS
LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANES IN WSW FLOW ALOFT INTERACT WITH A
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
OUTLOOK: LATE NIGHT-MORNING LOW STRATUS...AND ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUE THROUGH EARLY
WED. A POLAR VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
RESULTANT ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ATTENDING THE VORTEX.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
318 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM SUNDAY...
ONE LONE MODEST CELL PASSED OVER THE TRIAD RECENTLY... BUT OTHERWISE
THE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE SRN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE APPROACHED BUT FAILED TO
SURVIVE THE TRIP INTO THE FORECAST AREA DESPITE THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE (PW OF 150-175% OF NORMAL). WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING (FOSTERING THE GROWTH IN CINH OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS) AND
IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT (WITH
FAIRLY FLAT WSW MID LEVEL FLOW AND NO DISTINCT LOW LEVEL JETTING)...
EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL NC FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD BE SEEING A SLIGHT
RISE IN PW OVERNIGHT ACCORDING TO THE RAP IN CONJUNCTION WITH
PASSAGE OF A WAVE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WV/VA/MD (PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EVENING`S SEVERE WEATHER OVER WV/WRN VA)... AND
THIS MAY BRUSH OVER THE FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE CWA. IN ADDITION...
POOLING OF HIGHER PW OVER THE SE CWA AS IS PROJECTED BY SEVERAL
MODELS MAY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS THERE TOWARD MORNING. THE LATEST RAP RUN SUPPORTS THIS WITH A
MOISTENING COLUMN LATE TONIGHT AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF LINGERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL RETAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR N/NE
AND OVER THE SE LATER TONIGHT. BASED ON THE WEAK MBE MOVEMENT NOTED
BY THE RAP AND DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL-0C NEARING 4 KM)... LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH SLOW-MOVING AND/OR TRAINING CELLS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING IN THE SE CWA. MILD LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...
ANOTHER MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING OVER
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE OUR CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KTS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 6-7 DEG C/KM. IN ADDITION...CENTRAL NC SEE INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT MONDAY AS WE BECOME UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 110+KT JET. THESE DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT
OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.5-1.7 INCHES OF >200
PERCENT OF NORMAL). THUS... SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ERUPT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING WELL
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS. MAIN CONCERN IS A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS
TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN LOCATIONS COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO FLOODING
OF STREETS AS WELL AS CREEKS/STREAMS. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THOUGH COULD
SEE THE NEEDED FOR A FEW URBAN/SMALL STREAM STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLY
A FFW OR TWO.
IF THE MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION ARRIVES PRIOR
TO 15Z...INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THEN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED BUT COULD SEE AN
INCREASE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
HIGH TEMPS MONDAY DEPENDENT ON PARTIAL SUN OCCURRING IN THE EARLY-
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IF CLOUDS SLOW TO DEPART OR SCATTERED
CONVECTION COMMENCES SOONER THAN 20Z...THEN HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP
BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER. MAX TEMPS 80-85. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
LOW-MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 258 PM SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS EARLY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND MID-DAY. UNTIL FROPA...LOOK FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE...THUS AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...AND
PARTICULARLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SHOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LOOK
FOR DRIER NW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD OUR CWA...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW...
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WORTH NOTING THOUGH...THIS
FRONT...AND THE AIRMASS JUST AHEAD OF IT...APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE...RIGHT NOW WE`RE EXPECTING VERY MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOL NW FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR AREA
WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW PROGGED TO TRANSIT VA AND NC. GIVEN THE THE
ASSOC INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW...THE
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO EXIT TO OUR EAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEG BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...
AREAS OF STRATUS...IN MOIST/HUMID SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW BELOW A
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AROUND 1500 FT...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE AND CEILING HEIGHTS ARE BOTH
LIKELY TO BE MORE VARIABLE THAN IN RECENT DAYS. IN ADDITION...A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST IN A DEEPLY MOIST AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS MORNING...WITH THE RELATIVE
MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE AT KFAY.
OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT THROUGH MVFR RANGE AND SCATTER
BETWEEN 13-16Z. SUBSEQUENT DIURNAL HEATING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
HUMID AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPORT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AN APPALACHIAN LEE
SURFACE TROUGH AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION - BEST CONVEYED WITH A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME RANGE.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN LINGER OVERNIGHT...AS
LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANES IN WSW FLOW ALOFT INTERACT WITH A
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
OUTLOOK: LATE NIGHT-MORNING LOW STRATUS...AND ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUE THROUGH EARLY
WED. A POLAR VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
RESULTANT ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ATTENDING THE VORTEX.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1244 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE HAS NOW SHIFTED INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ALONG WITH NEARLY ALL THE PCPN. SEEMS LIKE THE BEST LIFT
WAS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME COLD TEMPS
ALOFT BEHIND IT. THEREFORE STARTING TO SEE SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. MAIN QUESTION IS
WHETHER ANY OF THE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS. AT LEAST ONE RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS SOME...SO WILL KEEP AN
EYE OUT FOR THIS...BUT NOT MENTION ANY MORE SHOWERS AT THIS POINT.
TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALREADY SO HIGHS AROUND 70 IN
SOME AREAS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
500 MB RIDGE NEAR CALGARY EARLY THIS MORNING. A SHORT WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH AROUND THE RIDGE IS NEAR THE BRANDON MANITOBA AREA
AND WILL DROP THRU CNTRL ND TODAY. THERE REMAINS A FEW SHOWERS
WITH THIS WAVE...MOSTLY NOW CENTERED RIGHT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER BRANDON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DROP SOUTH AFFECTING
PARTS OF THE DVL BASIN THIS MORNING. THE POSITION OF THE SHORT
WAVE AND 500 COOL POOL GIVES SCT AFTN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO
SOUTH CENTRAL ND THIS AFTN (BIS-JMS) AND SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA. THIS LINES WITH SPC GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK TODAY.
CONTINUED TREND FROM PREV FCST AND MADE FEW CHANGES. AREA OF MID
CLOUDS IN CNTRL ND WITH HIGHER CLOUDS EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE.
DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ENOUGH SUN AND WARMTH TO BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 60S WITH A 70 OR SO PSBL IN NRN RRV AS THIS AREA WILL SEE
THE WARMEST TEMPS 925-850 MB AND LESS CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTN.
WINDS TODAY PRETTY LIGHT.....GENERALLY A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND THEN ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH IN THE AFTN WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING TO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE IN THE RRV AND ERN ND.
TEMPS IN NRN AREAS A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY WHILE SRN AREAS TO BE A
BIT WARMER WITH LOW 70S. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE
TO OUR EAST AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATER TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WARM ADV ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC HIGH WILL SPREAD
SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SHOWER TO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION WED
NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND AND
850 MB TEMPS INTO THE MID TEENS. WARM AGAIN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS BOTH
THU/FRI MOSTLY 75-80. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS WITH FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE
BEEN MORE VARIABLE. SOME MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE
KEPT PRECIP CHANCES INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE SOME 00Z MON
RUNS HAVE COME ALONG WITH A DRIER SOLN. WILL MAINTAIN THE CR
SUPERBLEND APPROACH WHICH MAY END UP BEING A BIT TOO WET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
SCT TO FEW HIGH CIGS WITH LIGHT WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1229 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
SHOWER CLUSTER MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION NOW NEARLY OUT OF T
EH STATE. SO FAR THE LIGHTNING HAS BEEN VERY SPARSE...IN FACT
NONE SINCE ABOUT 5 AM. WILL HOWEVER...MAINTAIN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. SKIES CLEARING NORTH. CURRENT FORECAST
TRENDING WELL.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF DEVILS LAKE AT 14Z TRACKING
SOUTH WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF MINOT.
UPPER LOW CREATING INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND HAVE HAD
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES SO FAR.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TEH MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. CLEARING NORTH. CURRENT
FORECAST TRACKING WILL AND JUST UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING. AS WE HEAT UP...THE CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN
THUS WENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES SO ADJUSTED POPS AND CLOUD COVER ACCORDINGLY THERE. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING SO EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE DESTABILIZE FURTHER...THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE RAP IS INDICATING POSSIBLE CONVECTION AS FAR
NORTH AS WELLS COUNTY AND AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES...SO EXTENDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE MORE DETAILED
DISCUSSION OF NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
STILL HOLDS...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OF THE POTENTIAL OF
STORMS NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE LOW TOP CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DETAILS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATING
AND SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING. A 100KT
JET STREAK WAS SEEN DIVING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER
LOW. CANADIAN/LOCAL MINOT RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. MINOT AIR FORCE BASE
IS THE ONLY REPORTING SURFACE STATION AT THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
RAIN. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE
THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THINGS POTENTIALLY GET MORE INTERESTING THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT (-24C) ASSOCIATED WITH A H7-H5 CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DECENT LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN NOON CDT-6PM CDT
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE 200-300 J/KG AND STEEP (1000-85MB) LAPSE
RATES OF 8.5C/KM...ALONG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55KT-65KT.
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT CAPE/UPWARD MOMENTUM IS LACKING DUE TO
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ASCENT WILL BE FULFILLED BY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED 100KT JET STREAK...WHICH
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS EXPECTING LOW TOP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL HEIGHTS PER BISMARCK BUFKIT SOUNDING OF AROUND 18KFT. WITH
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT/STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND LARGE
SCALE ASCENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE VORTICITY STRETCHING INTO
THE VERTICAL COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR COMPOSITE INDICATE THE FIRST SURGE OF
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SLIDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING...THEN POCKETS OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITYS DEVELOP AGAIN
BETWEEN 17Z AND 00Z TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CONVECTION WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE. LATER MONDAY NIGHT...A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HEAD SOUTH AND REACH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
FOR TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BRIEF/MINOR COOLING FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL (700MB-
500MB) RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TAKE CONTROL AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL DEFLECT ANY SHORTWAVES RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE TO
REMAIN IN SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AND PEAKING
BETWEEN +16C TO +20C THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TAKING THESE TEMPERATURES DOWN
DRY ADIABATICALLY TO THE SURFACE TRANSLATES INTO HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A CLOSED
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...EJECTS
NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPIATION SHIELD IS FORECAST INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
AT NOON CDT MONDAY LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. VFR ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
FOR TUESDAY...JUST A HEADS UP THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
20 AND 25 PERCENT AND WILL COINCIDE WITH THESE WINDS OVER A SMALL
PORTION OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE TIME DURATION OF
THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS WITH 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 20 PERCENT APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
WITH INSUFFICIENT DURATION AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE...WOULD NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SYNOPSIS...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
932 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF DEVILS LAKE AT 14Z TRACKING
SOUTH WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF MINOT.
UPPER LOW CREATING INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND HAVE HAD
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES SO FAR.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TEH MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. CLEARING NORTH. CURRENT
FORECAST TRACKING WILL AND JUST UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING. AS WE HEAT UP...THE CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN
THUS WENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES SO ADJUSTED POPS AND CLOUD COVER ACCORDINGLY THERE. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING SO EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE DESTABILIZE FURTHER...THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE RAP IS INDICATING POSSIBLE CONVECTION AS FAR
NORTH AS WELLS COUNTY AND AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES...SO EXTENDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE MORE DETAILED
DISCUSSION OF NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
STILL HOLDS...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OF THE POTENTIAL OF
STORMS NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE LOW TOP CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DETAILS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATING
AND SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING. A 100KT
JET STREAK WAS SEEN DIVING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER
LOW. CANADIAN/LOCAL MINOT RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. MINOT AIR FORCE BASE
IS THE ONLY REPORTING SURFACE STATION AT THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
RAIN. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE
THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THINGS POTENTIALLY GET MORE INTERESTING THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT (-24C) ASSOCIATED WITH A H7-H5 CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DECENT LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN NOON CDT-6PM CDT
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE 200-300 J/KG AND STEEP (1000-85MB) LAPSE
RATES OF 8.5C/KM...ALONG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55KT-65KT.
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT CAPE/UPWARD MOMENTUM IS LACKING DUE TO
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ASCENT WILL BE FULFILLED BY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED 100KT JET STREAK...WHICH
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS EXPECTING LOW TOP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL HEIGHTS PER BISMARCK BUFKIT SOUNDING OF AROUND 18KFT. WITH
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT/STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND LARGE
SCALE ASCENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE VORTICITY STRETCHING INTO
THE VERTICAL COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR COMPOSITE INDICATE THE FIRST SURGE OF
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SLIDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING...THEN POCKETS OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITYS DEVELOP AGAIN
BETWEEN 17Z AND 00Z TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CONVECTION WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE. LATER MONDAY NIGHT...A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HEAD SOUTH AND REACH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
FOR TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BRIEF/MINOR COOLING FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL (700MB-
500MB) RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TAKE CONTROL AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL DEFLECT ANY SHORTWAVES RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE TO
REMAIN IN SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AND PEAKING
BETWEEN +16C TO +20C THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TAKING THESE TEMPERATURES DOWN
DRY ADIABATICALLY TO THE SURFACE TRANSLATES INTO HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A CLOSED
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...EJECTS
NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPIATION SHIELD IS FORECAST INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
-SHRA ARE FORECAST AT KBIS BETWEEN 12Z-15Z AND KJMS 14Z-17Z MONDAY
WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 8000FT. A VCTS WAS MENTIONED AT AT KBIS FROM
17Z MONDAY THROUGH 22Z MONDAY. NOT MENTION OF VCTS ELSE. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION AT KDIK AND KJMS. EXPECT A
CLEAR SKY AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. WINDS AROUND 10KT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDIK AND KISN WHERE GUSTS TO 20KT CAN BE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MID EVENING
AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
FOR TUESDAY...JUST A HEADS UP THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
20 AND 25 PERCENT AND WILL COINCIDE WITH THESE WINDS OVER A SMALL
PORTION OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE TIME DURATION OF
THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS WITH 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 20 PERCENT APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
WITH INSUFFICIENT DURATION AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE...WOULD NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
701 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING. AS WE HEAT UP...THE CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN
THUS WENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES SO ADJUSTED POPS AND CLOUD COVER ACCORDINGLY THERE. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING SO EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE DESTABILIZE FURTHER...THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE RAP IS INDICATING POSSIBLE CONVECTION AS FAR
NORTH AS WELLS COUNTY AND AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES...SO EXTENDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE MORE DETAILED
DISCUSSION OF NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
STILL HOLDS...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OF THE POTENTIAL OF
STORMS NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE LOW TOP CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DETAILS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATING
AND SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING. A 100KT
JET STREAK WAS SEEN DIVING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER
LOW. CANADIAN/LOCAL MINOT RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. MINOT AIR FORCE BASE
IS THE ONLY REPORTING SURFACE STATION AT THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
RAIN. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE
THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THINGS POTENTIALLY GET MORE INTERESTING THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT (-24C) ASSOCIATED WITH A H7-H5 CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DECENT LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN NOON CDT-6PM CDT
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE 200-300 J/KG AND STEEP (1000-85MB) LAPSE
RATES OF 8.5C/KM...ALONG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55KT-65KT.
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT CAPE/UPWARD MOMENTUM IS LACKING DUE TO
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ASCENT WILL BE FULFILLED BY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED 100KT JET STREAK...WHICH
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS EXPECTING LOW TOP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL HEIGHTS PER BISMARCK BUFKIT SOUNDING OF AROUND 18KFT. WITH
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT/STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND LARGE
SCALE ASCENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE VORTICITY STRETCHING INTO
THE VERTICAL COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR COMPOSITE INDICATE THE FIRST SURGE OF
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SLIDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING...THEN POCKETS OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITYS DEVELOP AGAIN
BETWEEN 17Z AND 00Z TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CONVECTION WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE. LATER MONDAY NIGHT...A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HEAD SOUTH AND REACH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
FOR TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BRIEF/MINOR COOLING FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL (700MB-
500MB) RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TAKE CONTROL AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL DEFLECT ANY SHORTWAVES RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE TO
REMAIN IN SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AND PEAKING
BETWEEN +16C TO +20C THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TAKING THESE TEMPERATURES DOWN
DRY ADIABATICALLY TO THE SURFACE TRANSLATES INTO HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A CLOSED
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...EJECTS
NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPIATION SHIELD IS FORECAST INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
-SHRA ARE FORECAST AT KBIS BETWEEN 12Z-15Z AND KJMS 14Z-17Z MONDAY
WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 8000FT. A VCTS WAS MENTIONED AT AT KBIS FROM
17Z MONDAY THROUGH 22Z MONDAY. NOT MENTION OF VCTS ELSE. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION AT KDIK AND KJMS. EXPECT A
CLEAR SKY AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. WINDS AROUND 10KT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDIK AND KISN WHERE GUSTS TO 20KT CAN BE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MID EVENING
AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
FOR TUESDAY...JUST A HEADS UP THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
20 AND 25 PERCENT AND WILL COINCIDE WITH THESE WINDS OVER A SMALL
PORTION OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE TIME DURATION OF
THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS WITH 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 20 PERCENT APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
WITH INSUFFICIENT DURATION AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE...WOULD NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE LOW TOP CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DETAILS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATING
AND SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING. A 100KT
JET STREAK WAS SEEN DIVING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER
LOW. CANADIAN/LOCAL MINOT RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. MINOT AIR FORCE BASE
IS THE ONLY REPORTING SURFACE STATION AT THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
RAIN. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE
THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THINGS POTENTIALLY GET MORE INTERESTING THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT (-24C) ASSOCIATED WITH A H7-H5 CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DECENT LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN NOON CDT-6PM CDT
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE 200-300 J/KG AND STEEP (1000-85MB) LAPSE
RATES OF 8.5C/KM...ALONG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55KT-65KT.
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT CAPE/UPWARD MOMENTUM IS LACKING DUE TO
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ASCENT WILL BE FULFILLED BY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED 100KT JET STREAK...WHICH
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS EXPECTING LOW TOP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL HEIGHTS PER BISMARCK BUFKIT SOUNDING OF AROUND 18KFT. WITH
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT/STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND LARGE
SCALE ASCENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE VORTICITY STRETCHING INTO
THE VERTICAL COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR COMPOSITE INDICATE THE FIRST SURGE OF
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SLIDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING...THEN POCKETS OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITYS DEVELOP AGAIN
BETWEEN 17Z AND 00Z TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CONVECTION WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE. LATER MONDAY NIGHT...A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HEAD SOUTH AND REACH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
FOR TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BRIEF/MINOR COOLING FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL (700MB-
500MB) RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TAKE CONTROL AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL DEFLECT ANY SHORTWAVES RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE TO
REMAIN IN SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AND PEAKING
BETWEEN +16C TO +20C THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TAKING THESE TEMPERATURES DOWN
DRY ADIABATICALLY TO THE SURFACE TRANSLATES INTO HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A CLOSED
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...EJECTS
NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPIATION SHIELD IS FORECAST INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
-SHRA ARE FORECAST AT KMOT UNTIL 12Z MONDAY....AND AT KBIS BETWEEN
12Z-16Z MONDAY WITH BKN CIGS/5000FT-8000FT. A VCTS WAS MENTIONED AT
KDIK FROM 16Z-21Z MONDAY...AND AT KBIS FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY. EXPECT A CLEAR SKY AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 03Z TUESDAY.
WINDS AROUND 10KT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDIK WHERE GUSTS TO 20KT CAN
BE EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
FOR TUESDAY...JUST A HEADS UP THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
20 AND 25 PERCENT AND WILL COINCIDE WITH THESE WINDS OVER A SMALL
PORTION OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE TIME DURATION OF
THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS WITH 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 20 PERCENT APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
WITH INSUFFICIENT DURATION AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE...WOULD NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...KS/TWH
FIRE WEATHER...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
219 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
AND UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH. LARGE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF
WV...OUR NE KY ZONES...AND OUR SE OHIO ZONES BORDERING THE OHIO
RIVER. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE. SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.
ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY.
USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AND AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA.
FRONT WILL REACH A PKB-LEX LINE AROUND 00Z...THEN ONLY SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE RIDES UP THE FRONT. BY 06Z FRONT WILL BE ON A CKB-HTS
LINE...AND ON A EKN-BKW LINE BY 12Z TUESDAY.
THRU 00Z...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...BUT IFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING IFR CEILINGS
WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS....ESPECIALLY SE OHIO.
AFTER 00Z...WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS FROM THE ONGOING SHOWERS
AND STORMS...IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. BY
AROUND 03Z...EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS TO SEE GENERALLY IFR
CONDITIONS.
06Z-12Z...SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST6...BUT EXPECT
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/FOG OVER THE AREA.
AFTER 12Z...IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 16Z...WITH VFR
CEILINGS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY SW 6 TO 12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
MAINLY RIDGETOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES UP THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY FOR
THOSE AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. ALSO...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE TIMING AND FORMATION OF IFR CEILINGS AND FOG TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CEILINGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND 15Z MOST TERMINALS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-
085>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MPK
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1133 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD
FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF
WV...OUR NE KY ZONES...AND OUR SE OHIO ZONES BORDERING THE OHIO
RIVER. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE. SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.
ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY.
USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
15Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AND AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA.
FRONT WILL REACH A PKB-LEX LINE AROUND 00Z...THEN ONLY SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE RIDES UP THE FRONT. BY 06Z FRONT WILL BE ON A CKB-HTS
LINE...AND ON A EKN-BKW LINE BY 12Z TUESDAY.
THRU 00Z...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...BUT IFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING IFR CEILINGS
WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS....ESPECIALLY SE OHIO.
AFTER 00Z...WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS FROM THE ONGOING SHOWERS
AND STORMS...IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. BY
AROUND 03Z...EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS TO SEE GENERALLY IFR
CONDITIONS.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY SW 6 TO 12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
MAINLY RIDGETOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES UP THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY FOR
THOSE AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. ALSO...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE TIMING AND FORMATION OF IFR CEILINGS AND FOG TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H M H H M M M M M M M
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR CEILINGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND 15Z MOST TERMINALS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-
085>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MPK
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JMV/MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1004 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD
FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF
WV...OUR NE KY ZONES...AND OUR SE OHIO ZONES BORDERING THE OHIO
RIVER. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE. SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.
ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY.
USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW STRATUS WILL CAUSE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AS A FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION...AND
CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS FOG
MAY DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. IF THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH THAN
EXPECTED...THEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ALSO...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND FORMATION OF FOG TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H M H H M M M M
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-
085>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MPK
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
729 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED...UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED
THUNDER.
ORIGINAL...SHOWERS CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TODAY WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA DRYING OUT BEFORE SUNRISE. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
BEING FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BASED ON HRRR TIMING. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A 300MB JET STREAK ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE EXPANDS
JUST TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND BY 00Z BEGINS TO
ENCROACH INTO THE AREA. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE DAY. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS EAST EARLY AND CHANCE POPS
WEST...THEN TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS. LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH
SOME BREAKS. HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT MODELS TAKE SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
HOWEVER WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS TUESDAY HOWEVER TUESDAY NIGHT
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BOOST TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS EAST
HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS WEST AND LIKELY POPS EAST WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EARLY. THURSDAY AN UPPER LOW ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA
OUT OF THE NORTH. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN. TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEGA UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND TO GET THE LOCAL AREA BACK
INTO SPRING LIKE WEATHER. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES TO EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SO WILL GO AHEAD AND CUT BACK ON THE POPS OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AND BRING
WARMER AIR BACK TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS SINCE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS EXPECTED. STILL
EXPECTING LOW CEILINGS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND GRADUALLY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. SOME IFR
TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY
LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE
ON WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONGER WINDS TO RAISE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
653 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TODAY. UNSETTLED INTO
TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE. SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.
ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY.
USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW STRATUS WILL CAUSE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AS A FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION...AND
CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS FOG
MAY DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. IF THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH THAN
EXPECTED...THEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ALSO...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND FORMATION OF FOG TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M M M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H H M M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M M H H M M
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
623 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED...UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED
THUNDER.
ORIGINAL...SHOWERS CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TODAY WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA DRYING OUT BEFORE SUNRISE. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
BEING FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BASED ON HRRR TIMING. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A 300MB JET STREAK ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE EXPANDS
JUST TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND BY 00Z BEGINS TO
ENCROACH INTO THE AREA. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE DAY. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS EAST EARLY AND CHANCE POPS
WEST...THEN TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS. LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH
SOME BREAKS. HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT MODELS TAKE SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
HOWEVER WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS TUESDAY HOWEVER TUESDAY NIGHT
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BOOST TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS EAST
HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS WEST AND LIKELY POPS EAST WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EARLY. THURSDAY AN UPPER LOW ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA
OUT OF THE NORTH. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN. TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEGA UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND TO GET THE LOCAL AREA BACK
INTO SPRING LIKE WEATHER. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES TO EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SO WILL GO AHEAD AND CUT BACK ON THE POPS OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AND BRING
WARMER AIR BACK TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL FORCE RAIN TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN AT THIS TIME AND THAT SHOULD MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. STILL EXPECTING LOW CEILINGS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY AS RAIN PULLS OUT TO THE EAST. SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AN ISSUE TODAY AS WELL BUT WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN
THE RAIN DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE
ON WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONGER WINDS TO RAISE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS CHARLESTON WV
544 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TODAY. UNSETTLED INTO
TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE. SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.
ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY.
USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG STORY TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND IFR
CONDITIONS AT MANY LOCATIONS. SATURATED GROUND FROM RAINFALL TODAY
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
WIDESPREAD FOG LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.
A LINE OF SH0WERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...WILL IMPACT PKB OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DIRECTLY IMPACT AN
AIRPORT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH
THE COLD FRONT STILL IN THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG. NOT SURE
IF ALL SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS BEING MOST
LIKELY TO SEE A DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/02/16
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M M H H M
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TOMORROW IN FOG ONCE
AGAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
530 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED INTO TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE. SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.
ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY.
USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG STORY TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND IFR
CONDITIONS AT MANY LOCATIONS. SATURATED GROUND FROM RAINFALL TODAY
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
WIDESPREAD FOG LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.
A LINE OF SH0WERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...WILL IMPACT PKB OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DIRECTLY IMPACT AN
AIRPORT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH
THE COLD FRONT STILL IN THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG. NOT SURE
IF ALL SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS BEING MOST
LIKELY TO SEE A DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/02/16
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M M H H M
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TOMORROW IN FOG ONCE
AGAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
525 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED INTO TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE. SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.
ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT...WITH A SURFACE WAVE ALONG IT...EXITS TO THE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
LOBE OF VORTICITY CROSS. SHOULD GET A MAINLY DRY PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINIMAL
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WINDING DOWN THIS MORNING AND WE WILL SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER... SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH THE COLD FRONT
STILL IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/02/16
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M M H H M
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
POSSIBLE MVF TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOPING BY TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
345 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED INTO TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE. SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.
ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT...WITH A SURFACE WAVE ALONG IT...EXITS TO THE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
LOBE OF VORTICITY CROSS. SHOULD GET A MAINLY DRY PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINIMAL
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG STORY TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND IFR
CONDITIONS AT MANY LOCATIONS. SATURATED GROUND FROM RAINFALL TODAY
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
WIDESPREAD FOG LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.
A LINE OF SH0WERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...WILL IMPACT PKB OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DIRECTLY IMPACT AN
AIRPORT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH
THE COLD FRONT STILL IN THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG. NOT SURE
IF ALL SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS BEING MOST
LIKELY TO SEE A DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/02/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M M M
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TOMORROW IN FOG ONCE
AGAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ/MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
322 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHOWERS CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TODAY WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA DRYING OUT BEFORE SUNRISE. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING
FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BASED ON HRRR TIMING. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH A 300MB JET STREAK ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE EXPANDS JUST TO
OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND BY 00Z BEGINS TO ENCROACH
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS EAST EARLY AND CHANCE POPS WEST...THEN
TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS. LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH SOME BREAKS.
HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT MODELS TAKE SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
HOWEVER WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS TUESDAY HOWEVER TUESDAY NIGHT
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BOOST TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS EAST
HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS WEST AND LIKELY POPS EAST WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EARLY. THURSDAY AN UPPER LOW ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA
OUT OF THE NORTH. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN. TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEGA UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND TO GET THE LOCAL AREA BACK
INTO SPRING LIKE WEATHER. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES TO EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SO WILL GO AHEAD AND CUT BACK ON THE POPS OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AND BRING
WARMER AIR BACK TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL FORCE RAIN TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN AT THIS TIME AND THAT SHOULD MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. STILL EXPECTING LOW CEILINGS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY AS RAIN PULLS OUT TO THE EAST. SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AN ISSUE TODAY AS WELL BUT WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN
THE RAIN DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE
ON WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONGER WINDS TO RAISE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
A LAYER OF CLOUDS WITH BASES AT APPROXIMATELY 3000 TO 5000 FEET
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. WHILE BR/FG CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT. SO...IF IT
DOES HAPPEN...IT SHOULD BE VERY SHALLOW AND RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED
AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
DROP OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. S TO SW WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT SPEEDS
WILL BE MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SOME SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR
OVER W OK TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND BEYOND.
CMS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED RAIN
CHANCES IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.
DISCUSSION...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE...THINK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. THUS...INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. THIS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER DID NOT ALTER
AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THEY SEEMED TO BE REASONABLE.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARILY
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH 21-00Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MOST TERMINALS. RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...
ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO KEEP BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS. MOST IF NOT ALL SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF RED RIVER BUT WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW-MID CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...OVERALL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST FORECAST DATA ON
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. RIGHT NOW ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
TEMPS WARM ENOUGH AND INCREASES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SUFFICIENTLY
TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.
UPPER LOW EXITING MANITOBA AND ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS PROGD TO
SINK SOUTHWARD AND TRAVERSE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTENING WE WILL KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS WESTERN
THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL PROBABLY BE
HARD TO GET ANY THUNDER...BUT WITH FAIRLY COLD CORE OF
SYSTEM...ENOUGH GRAUPEL GROWTH MAY BE REALIZED FOR A FEW
DISCHARGES SO WILL MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.
WARMING TREND EXPECTED LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ALONG WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. WITH CENTRAL U.S. OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE WEEK...SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF WEEKEND SYSTEM
WITH PROLONGED COASTAL REGION LOWER LEVEL RIDGING. GREATER
MOISTURE RETURN PROGD LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
INCREASE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAIN
EVENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 64 44 71 49 / 0 0 10 0
HOBART OK 66 42 70 48 / 0 0 30 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 46 72 50 / 0 0 10 20
GAGE OK 65 40 70 44 / 0 0 20 0
PONCA CITY OK 63 41 72 48 / 0 0 10 0
DURANT OK 67 47 72 52 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED RAIN
CHANCES IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE...THINK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. THUS...INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. THIS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER DID NOT ALTER
AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THEY SEEMED TO BE REASONABLE.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARILY
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH 21-00Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MOST TERMINALS. RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...
ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO KEEP BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS. MOST IF NOT ALL SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF RED RIVER BUT WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW-MID CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...OVERALL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST FORECAST DATA ON
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. RIGHT NOW ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
TEMPS WARM ENOUGH AND INCREASES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SUFFICIENTLY
TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.
UPPER LOW EXITING MANITOBA AND ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS PROGD TO
SINK SOUTHWARD AND TRAVERSE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTENING WE WILL KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS WESTERN
THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL PROBABLY BE
HARD TO GET ANY THUNDER...BUT WITH FAIRLY COLD CORE OF
SYSTEM...ENOUGH GRAUPEL GROWTH MAY BE REALIZED FOR A FEW
DISCHARGES SO WILL MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.
WARMING TREND EXPECTED LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ALONG WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. WITH CENTRAL U.S. OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE WEEK...SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF WEEKEND SYSTEM
WITH PROLONGED COASTAL REGION LOWER LEVEL RIDGING. GREATER
MOISTURE RETURN PROGD LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
INCREASE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAIN
EVENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 64 44 71 49 / 0 0 10 0
HOBART OK 66 42 70 48 / 0 0 30 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 46 72 50 / 0 0 10 20
GAGE OK 65 40 70 44 / 0 0 20 0
PONCA CITY OK 63 41 72 48 / 0 0 10 0
DURANT OK 67 47 72 52 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1144 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A few scattered showers will continue overnight but will likely
not be heavy enough to reduce visibilities in most locations
MLC area could receive a brief period of rain and possibly
a thunderstorm in the 06-07Z time range. Brief MVFR conditions
expected Monday morning due to low clouds before ceiling heights
rise again by early afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Enhanced area of light rain in a narrow band continues to spread
into parts of eastern OK this evening, likely in the vicinity of
850mb frontal zone that stretches just south of I-44. This area
will see the highest rain chances through early tonight with only
light amounts expected. Aside from that the forecast for tonight
looks reasonable with a limited threat of thunder later tonight
across far southeast OK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A few showers possible across northeast Oklahoma this evening in
association with passing upper wave. Brief MVFR conditions expected
Monday morning across NE OK/NW AR with lower cloud deck, however
ceiling heights are expected to rise back to VFR conditions by noon.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Showers lifting northeast across western OK will graze portions of
NE OK this afternoon. This activity should gradually dissipate
toward 00z as the isentropic lift forcing it weakens. Upper
shortwave trough over AZ/NM will slide northeast across our area
tonight. The 12z GFS/ECMWF and latest runs of the experimental
HRRR bring showers across NE OK tonight along the track of the
system. Farther to the south over west TX...increasing ~800 mb
frontogenetic lift in association with the upper wave will
produce one or more bands of rain and possibly a few lightning
strikes late tonight. This activity will spread northeast along
the frontal surface with the HRRR suggesting that it will clip
southeast OK going into Monday morning. Will carry higher chance
pops along the track of the upper wave up north...and down south
where it is most likely banded precip will occur...and only slight
chance pops in between.
Temperatures through Monday night...highs and lows...will run
roughly 10 degrees below average for this time of year. A warming
trend is expected by midweek...with highs returning to the 80s for
the latter part of the week.
The upper air pattern next week will be characterized by a deep
upper trough over the East and Gulf with a ridge over the Rockies.
Rich Gulf moisture will be scoured out by this pattern...with
tranquil weather expected. The upper features will slowly shift
east...with ridging over the Plains by the end of the week.
Eventually a deep upper trough over the West will eventually move
into the Plains early next week...and this will be our next chance
of storms. The moisture quality this system will have to work with
will not be as good as what we saw the last week of April however.
This may mitigate the overall severe potential.
Lacy
TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
$$
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
928 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LINGER AROUND
THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW INTO PA PERSISTS BETWEEN COASTAL CAROLINA SFC
LOW AND SOUTHEAST CANADA SFC HIGH CIRCULATIONS. UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
AXES CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER PA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND
NRN GLAKS UPPER LOW. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A DAMP EVENING
THROUGHOUT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLIER
THIS EVENING...AND AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE AND SPRITZY
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
ANOTHER UPPER SHEAR AXIS SLOWLY SWINGING INTO THE EASTERN GLAKS
AND WESTERN PA WILL KEEP SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS GOING OVERNIGHT BUT
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. HRRR KEEPS MOST
NUMEROUS AND PERSISTENT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN EXCESS OF 0.8"...AND DEEPER MARINE
FLOW PERSISTS. LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AND EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DZ CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER OH VLY AND
KEEP IT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS ON WED REFLECT THE
NORMAL OUTCOME OF AN UPPER LOW OVER OH/WV. SCT SHRA...WITH THE
HIGHER /LOW LIKELY/ POPS SLIDE FROM E-W AS THE MORE DRIZZLY STUFF
IS JOINED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WRN MTNS. MAXES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5-10F UNDER NORMALS DUE TO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR A LARGE TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S.
TO BECOME DOMINATED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND CURLING EASTWARD TO BE LOCATED OVER E NORTH
CAROLINA BY THU EVE AND DELMARVA ON FRI. SHOWERY PATTERN IN STORE
FOR SURE OVER THIS PERIOD...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ON THU LOCATED
OVER W PA /CLOSER TO UPPER LOW/ WITH PRECIP SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
FRI AS IT CONSOLIDATES NEAR SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A MODEST SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SEWD LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY UNWINDS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
BRINGING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR SUN/MON BEFORE WHAT LOOKS LIKE
COULD BE A PRETTY DECENT WARMUP AS RIDGING FINALLY ARRIVES.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS WHILE VFR WITH OCNL MVFR
IS THE RULE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND BRINGS AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR FROM LATE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BUT MOST OF THE FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME FOG OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
735 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LINGER AROUND
THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM ARE ROAMING THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE IT`S MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS RANGE FROM COOLISH (AROUND
50F) UP NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S AND A BIT MUGGY FAR SOUTH.
UPPER SHEAR AXIS SLOWLY SWINGING INTO THE EASTERN GLAKS AND
WESTERN PA WILL KEEP SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS GOING OVERNIGHT BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. HRRR KEEPS MOST NUMEROUS
AND PERSISTENT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS IN EXCESS OF 0.8"...AND DEEPER MARINE FLOW
PERSISTS. LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AND EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DZ CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER OH VLY AND
KEEP IT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS ON WED REFLECT THE
NORMAL OUTCOME OF AN UPPER LOW OVER OH/WV. SCT SHRA...WITH THE
HIGHER /LOW LIKELY/ POPS SLIDE FROM E-W AS THE MORE DRIZZLY STUFF
IS JOINED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WRN MTNS. MAXES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5-10F UNDER NORMALS DUE TO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR A LARGE TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S.
TO BECOME DOMINATED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND CURLING EASTWARD TO BE LOCATED OVER E NORTH
CAROLINA BY THU EVE AND DELMARVA ON FRI. SHOWERY PATTERN IN STORE
FOR SURE OVER THIS PERIOD...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ON THU LOCATED
OVER W PA /CLOSER TO UPPER LOW/ WITH PRECIP SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
FRI AS IT CONSOLIDATES NEAR SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A MODEST SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SEWD LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY UNWINDS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
BRINGING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR SUN/MON BEFORE WHAT LOOKS LIKE
COULD BE A PRETTY DECENT WARMUP AS RIDGING FINALLY ARRIVES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS WHILE VFR WITH OCNL MVFR
IS THE RULE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND BRINGS AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR FROM LATE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BUT MOST OF THE FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME FOG OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1051 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER PA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
DOWN TO SOUTHEAST PA AND MD BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP OVER SOUTHERN PA...AND SOME COULD MAKE
GUSTY WINDS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY SOME COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIN LINE OF CLOUDS NOW VISIBLE PULLING OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
CLOUD SHIELD IS MOST LIKELY THE FRONT AS WIND SHIFT EVIDENT ON
SURFACE ANALYSIS. SOME BREAKS/PARTIAL CLEARING TO THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH OF THAT LINE - IN THE LAURELS AND UP INTO CENTRE COUNTY.
WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE CLOSE TO 50KTS AT 7-8KFT. SO
SEVERE OR AT LEAST GUSTY WINDS STILL POSSIBLE IN ANYTHING THAT CAN
GROW UP. TROUBLE WILL BE THE INITIAL CAP/INVERSION AT THAT SAME
LEVEL. BUT WITH SOME SUN...WE SHOULD PUSH PAST IT. LEAVING POPS IN
THE SCT RANGE DUE TO EXPECTED COVERAGE.
PREV...
RAIN MOVING OUT QUICKLY AND PARTIAL CLEARING IN SW IS ALREADY
WORKING TO HAPPY VALLEY. WILL TWEAK POPS AND SKY A BIT FOR THESE
DEVELOPMENTS.
PREV...
SFC WARM FRONT DEPICTED RATHER NICELY BY LATEST RAP LLVL /SFC-925
MB/ ANALYSIS OF LIFTED INDICES. THE FRONT SNAKES IT WAY FROM NEAR
KBTP...TO A WEAK 1010 MB SFC LOW NEAR KDUJ...THEN EXTENDS SOUTH TO
KIDI AND ON INTO MD PANHANDLE. WEAKER ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA EXTENDED FURTHER NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
AT 10Z...WHERE 850 MB BASED LI/S WERE ABOUT -1 TO -2C.
THE HIGHEST POPS /90-100 PERCENT/ WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA...BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPR LEVEL JET
AND COLLOCATED WITH THE NOSE OF 1-2 SIGMA SOUTHERLY LLJ.
OVER THE SERN HALF OF PENN...POPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50-70
PERCENT RANGE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX RACES NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE CWA WAS LEADING TO SOME 1/2-1SM FOG OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN AND WRNPENN...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST...TO THE MID 50S OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
INITIAL BATCH OF TSRA /IN THE FORM OF MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ
VALLEY/ WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NE OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE A FEW TO SVRL HOUR LULL IN PRECIP...PRIOR TO
ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF TSRA FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND ALONG A NEARLY NORTH/SOUTH LEE TROUGH. MODELS
PAINT MDT INSTABILITY AND MDTLY STRONG LLVL SHEAR ACROSS THE SCENT
MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 18-23Z. RAP/NAM EHIS BRIEFLY
POKE UP INTO THE 1-1.5 M2/S2 RANGE TO THE SE OF I-81 IN THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 20-23Z...BETWEEN THE SFC LEE TROUGH AND QUASI-
STNRY/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 15 TO 25
SM TO THE EAST OF THE LOWER SUSQ MAINSTEM. PRIOR TO ANY UPSCALE
GROWTH IN INDIVIDUAL TSRA TO A BKN LINE /QLCS/...SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD CONTAIN WEAK TO MDTLY STRONG MESOS. ANY THREAT FOR A
WEAK ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD BE EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER...INVOF OF
BETTER LLVL SHEAR AND LOWER LCL HEIGHTS NEAR THE STNRY FRONT.
ANY PRECIP ACROSS THE NW ZONES LATER TODAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
ISOLATED -SHRA AS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
KBFD AREA BETWEEN 16-18Z.
MAX TEMPS /USING A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND/ RANGE FORM THE L-M 50S
IN THE NW...TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE SOME PULSES OF WEAK-MDT UVVEL INVOF OF THE
SLOWING CFRONT ACROSS SERN PENN WILL BRING THE CHC FOR A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WITH HIGHLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
THE CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE
TUESDAY AS A FEW WEAK SFC WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE RIPPLE NE
ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED CFRONT JUST TO OUR SE WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NNW INTO THE REGION. WILL STRONGLY CONSIDER
BOOSTING POPS UP LATE TONIGHT AND TUES MORNING WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR WHERE
LATEST SREF/GEFS SHOW 90+ PERCENT PROBS FOR 0.10 OF AN INCH OF
RAINFL...WITH 60-80 PROBS FOR 0.25 INCH OF QPF.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE COOL UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE U40S AND MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE STATE IN THE MORNING.
THE PATTERN TURNS QUITE UNSETTLED FOR LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A DEEP...SLOW-MOVING CLOSED LOW DROPS SE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...BEFORE BECOMING SITUATED FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST 00Z/06Z OPER/ENS
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN EVOLUTION/LOCATION OF THIS UPPER
LOW COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW MODEL RUNS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A STEADY FEED/PLUME OF MOISTURE
WILL STREAM NWWD AND SPIRAL AROUND THIS UPPER LOW...WITH THE
CURRENT TARGET AREA FOR THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOCATED
SOMEWHERE ACRS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN...EAST TO THE SUSQ VALLEY.
PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THE FINER DETAILS FOR THIS MDTLY HEAVY
PRECIP EVENT.
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER
FRIDAY AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RIDGE WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST. STILL KEPT MENTION OF A SHOWER SE ON SAT. POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER WAVE TO BRING CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY...BUT MODEL
CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THIS TIME.
SO OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER READING
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN A WARMING TREND. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE
TO BE HAD THIS WEEK WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST AND NORTHWARD WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT
JST AND AOO...WITH THE EASTERN TAF SITES STILL MVFR AND LOWER.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH MAINLY VFR BY 16Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
FOLLOWING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THERE COULD BE LINGERING MVFR
AT BFD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA. THIS COULD AFFECT MDT/LNS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY SE.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
853 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
COMBINE WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY SOME COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKE TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN MOVING OUT QUICKLY AND PARTIAL CLEARING IN SW IS ALREADY
WORKING TO HAPPY VALLEY. WILL TWEAK POPS AND SKY A BIT FOR THESE
DEVELOPMENTS.
PREV...
SFC WARM FRONT DEPICTED RATHER NICELY BY LATEST RAP LLVL /SFC-925
MB/ ANALYSIS OF LIFTED INDICES. THE FRONT SNAKES IT WAY FROM NEAR
KBTP...TO A WEAK 1010 MB SFC LOW NEAR KDUJ...THEN EXTENDS SOUTH TO
KIDI AND ON INTO MD PANHANDLE. WEAKER ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA EXTENDED FURTHER NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
AT 10Z...WHERE 850 MB BASED LI/S WERE ABOUT -1 TO -2C.
THE HIGHEST POPS /90-100 PERCENT/ WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA...BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPR LEVEL JET
AND COLLOCATED WITH THE NOSE OF 1-2 SIGMA SOUTHERLY LLJ.
OVER THE SERN HALF OF PENN...POPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50-70
PERCENT RANGE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX RACES NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE CWA WAS LEADING TO SOME 1/2-1SM FOG OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN AND WRNPENN...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST...TO THE MID 50S OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
INITIAL BATCH OF TSRA /IN THE FORM OF MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ
VALLEY/ WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NE OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE A FEW TO SVRL HOUR LULL IN PRECIP...PRIOR TO
ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF TSRA FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND ALONG A NEARLY NORTH/SOUTH LEE TROUGH. MODELS
PAINT MDT INSTABILITY AND MDTLY STRONG LLVL SHEAR ACROSS THE SCENT
MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 18-23Z. RAP/NAM EHIS BRIEFLY
POKE UP INTO THE 1-1.5 M2/S2 RANGE TO THE SE OF I-81 IN THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 20-23Z...BETWEEN THE SFC LEE TROUGH AND QUASI-
STNRY/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 15 TO 25
SM TO THE EAST OF THE LOWER SUSQ MAINSTEM. PRIOR TO ANY UPSCALE
GROWTH IN INDIVIDUAL TSRA TO A BKN LINE /QLCS/...SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD CONTAIN WEAK TO MDTLY STRONG MESOS. ANY THREAT FOR A
WEAK ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD BE EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER...INVOF OF
BETTER LLVL SHEAR AND LOWER LCL HEIGHTS NEAR THE STNRY FRONT.
ANY PRECIP ACROSS THE NW ZONES LATER TODAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
ISOLATED -SHRA AS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
KBFD AREA BETWEEN 16-18Z.
MAX TEMPS /USING A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND/ RANGE FORM THE L-M 50S
IN THE NW...TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE SOME PULSES OF WEAK-MDT UVVEL INVOF OF THE
SLOWING CFRONT ACROSS SERN PENN WILL BRING THE CHC FOR A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WITH HIGHLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
THE CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE
TUESDAY AS A FEW WEAK SFC WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE RIPPLE NE
ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED CFRONT JUST TO OUR SE WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NNW INTO THE REGION. WILL STRONGLY CONSIDER
BOOSTING POPS UP LATE TONIGHT AND TUES MORNING WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR WHERE
LATEST SREF/GEFS SHOW 90+ PERCENT PROBS FOR 0.10 OF AN INCH OF
RAINFL...WITH 60-80 PROBS FOR 0.25 INCH OF QPF.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE COOL UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE U40S AND MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE STATE IN THE MORNING.
THE PATTERN TURNS QUITE UNSETTLED FOR LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A DEEP...SLOW-MOVING CLOSED LOW DROPS SE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...BEFORE BECOMING SITUATED FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST 00Z/06Z OPER/ENS
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN EVOLUTION/LOCATION OF THIS UPPER
LOW COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW MODEL RUNS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A STEADY FEED/PLUME OF MOISTURE
WILL STREAM NWWD AND SPIRAL AROUND THIS UPPER LOW...WITH THE
CURRENT TARGET AREA FOR THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOCATED
SOMEWHERE ACRS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN...EAST TO THE SUSQ VALLEY.
PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THE FINER DETAILS FOR THIS MDTLY HEAVY
PRECIP EVENT.
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER
FRIDAY AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RIDGE WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST. STILL KEPT MENTION OF A SHOWER SE ON SAT. POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER WAVE TO BRING CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY...BUT MODEL
CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THIS TIME.
SO OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER READING
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN A WARMING TREND. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE
TO BE HAD THIS WEEK WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST AND NORTHWARD WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT
JST AND AOO...WITH THE EASTERN TAF SITES STILL MVFR AND LOWER.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH MAINLY VFR BY 16Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
FOLLOWING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THERE COULD BE LINGERING MVFR
AT BFD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA. THIS COULD AFFECT MDT/LNS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY SE.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
758 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
COMBINE WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY SOME COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKE TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC WARM FRONT DEPICTED RATHER NICELY BY LATEST RAP LLVL /SFC-925
MB/ ANALYSIS OF LIFTED INDICES. THE FRONT SNAKES IT WAY FROM NEAR
KBTP...TO A WEAK 1010 MB SFC LOW NEAR KDUJ...THEN EXTENDS SOUTH TO
KIDI AND ON INTO MD PANHANDLE. WEAKER ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA EXTENDED FURTHER NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
AT 10Z...WHERE 850 MB BASED LI/S WERE ABOUT -1 TO -2C.
THE HIGHEST POPS /90-100 PERCENT/ WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA...BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPR LEVEL JET
AND COLLOCATED WITH THE NOSE OF 1-2 SIGMA SOUTHERLY LLJ.
OVER THE SERN HALF OF PENN...POPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50-70
PERCENT RANGE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX RACES NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE CWA WAS LEADING TO SOME 1/2-1SM FOG OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN AND WRNPENN...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST...TO THE MID 50S OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
INITIAL BATCH OF TSRA /IN THE FORM OF MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ
VALLEY/ WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NE OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE A FEW TO SVRL HOUR LULL IN PRECIP...PRIOR TO
ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF TSRA FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND ALONG A NEARLY NORTH/SOUTH LEE TROUGH. MODELS
PAINT MDT INSTABILITY AND MDTLY STRONG LLVL SHEAR ACROSS THE SCENT
MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 18-23Z. RAP/NAM EHIS BRIEFLY
POKE UP INTO THE 1-1.5 M2/S2 RANGE TO THE SE OF I-81 IN THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 20-23Z...BETWEEN THE SFC LEE TROUGH AND QUASI-
STNRY/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 15 TO 25
SM TO THE EAST OF THE LOWER SUSQ MAINSTEM. PRIOR TO ANY UPSCALE
GROWTH IN INDIVIDUAL TSRA TO A BKN LINE /QLCS/...SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD CONTAIN WEAK TO MDTLY STRONG MESOS. ANY THREAT FOR A
WEAK ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD BE EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER...INVOF OF
BETTER LLVL SHEAR AND LOWER LCL HEIGHTS NEAR THE STNRY FRONT.
ANY PRECIP ACROSS THE NW ZONES LATER TODAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
ISOLATED -SHRA AS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
KBFD AREA BETWEEN 16-18Z.
MAX TEMPS /USING A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND/ RANGE FORM THE L-M 50S
IN THE NW...TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE SOME PULSES OF WEAK-MDT UVVEL INVOF OF THE
SLOWING CFRONT ACROSS SERN PENN WILL BRING THE CHC FOR A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WITH HIGHLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
THE CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE
TUESDAY AS A FEW WEAK SFC WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE RIPPLE NE
ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED CFRONT JUST TO OUR SE WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NNW INTO THE REGION. WILL STRONGLY CONSIDER
BOOSTING POPS UP LATE TONIGHT AND TUES MORNING WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR WHERE
LATEST SREF/GEFS SHOW 90+ PERCENT PROBS FOR 0.10 OF AN INCH OF
RAINFL...WITH 60-80 PROBS FOR 0.25 INCH OF QPF.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE COOL UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE U40S AND MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE STATE IN THE MORNING.
THE PATTERN TURNS QUITE UNSETTLED FOR LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A DEEP...SLOW-MOVING CLOSED LOW DROPS SE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...BEFORE BECOMING SITUATED FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST 00Z/06Z OPER/ENS
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN EVOLUTION/LOCATION OF THIS UPPER
LOW COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW MODEL RUNS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A STEADY FEED/PLUME OF MOISTURE
WILL STREAM NWWD AND SPIRAL AROUND THIS UPPER LOW...WITH THE
CURRENT TARGET AREA FOR THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOCATED
SOMEWHERE ACRS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN...EAST TO THE SUSQ VALLEY.
PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THE FINER DETAILS FOR THIS MDTLY HEAVY
PRECIP EVENT.
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER
FRIDAY AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RIDGE WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST. STILL KEPT MENTION OF A SHOWER SE ON SAT. POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER WAVE TO BRING CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY...BUT MODEL
CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THIS TIME.
SO OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER READING
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN A WARMING TREND. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE
TO BE HAD THIS WEEK WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST AND NORTHWARD WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT
JST AND AOO...WITH THE EASTERN TAF SITES STILL MVFR AND LOWER.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH MAINLY VFR BY 16Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
FOLLOWING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THERE COULD BE LINGERING MVFR
AT BFD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA. THIS COULD AFFECT MDT/LNS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY SE.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
624 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
COMBINE WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY SOME COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKE TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC WARM FRONT DEPICTED RATHER NICELY BY LATEST RAP LLVL /SFC-925
MB/ ANALYSIS OF LIFTED INDICES. THE FRONT SNAKES IT WAY FROM NEAR
KBTP...TO A WEAK 1010 MB SFC LOW NEAR KDUJ...THEN EXTENDS SOUTH TO
KIDI AND ON INTO MD PANHANDLE. WEAKER ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA EXTENDED FURTHER NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
AT 10Z...WHERE 850 MB BASED LI/S WERE ABOUT -1 TO -2C.
THE HIGHEST POPS /90-100 PERCENT/ WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA...BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPR LEVEL JET
AND COLLOCATED WITH THE NOSE OF 1-2 SIGMA SOUTHERLY LLJ.
OVER THE SERN HALF OF PENN...POPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50-70
PERCENT RANGE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX RACES NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE CWA WAS LEADING TO SOME 1/2-1SM FOG OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN AND WRNPENN...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST...TO THE MID 50S OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
INITIAL BATCH OF TSRA /IN THE FORM OF MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ
VALLEY/ WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NE OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE A FEW TO SVRL HOUR LULL IN PRECIP...PRIOR TO
ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF TSRA FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND ALONG A NEARLY NORTH/SOUTH LEE TROUGH. MODELS
PAINT MDT INSTABILITY AND MDTLY STRONG LLVL SHEAR ACROSS THE SCENT
MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 18-23Z. RAP/NAM EHIS BRIEFLY
POKE UP INTO THE 1-1.5 M2/S2 RANGE TO THE SE OF I-81 IN THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 20-23Z...BETWEEN THE SFC LEE TROUGH AND QUASI-
STNRY/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 15 TO 25
SM TO THE EAST OF THE LOWER SUSQ MAINSTEM. PRIOR TO ANY UPSCALE
GROWTH IN INDIVIDUAL TSRA TO A BKN LINE /QLCS/...SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD CONTAIN WEAK TO MDTLY STRONG MESOS. ANY THREAT FOR A
WEAK ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD BE EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER...INVOF OF
BETTER LLVL SHEAR AND LOWER LCL HEIGHTS NEAR THE STNRY FRONT.
ANY PRECIP ACROSS THE NW ZONES LATER TODAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
ISOLATED -SHRA AS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
KBFD AREA BETWEEN 16-18Z.
MAX TEMPS /USING A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND/ RANGE FORM THE L-M 50S
IN THE NW...TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE SOME PULSES OF WEAK-MDT UVVEL INVOF OF THE
SLOWING CFRONT ACROSS SERN PENN WILL BRING THE CHC FOR A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WITH HIGHLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
THE CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE
TUESDAY AS A FEW WEAK SFC WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE RIPPLE NE
ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED CFRONT JUST TO OUR SE WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NNW INTO THE REGION. WILL STRONGLY CONSIDER
BOOSTING POPS UP LATE TONIGHT AND TUES MORNING WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR WHERE
LATEST SREF/GEFS SHOW 90+ PERCENT PROBS FOR 0.10 OF AN INCH OF
RAINFL...WITH 60-80 PROBS FOR 0.25 INCH OF QPF.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE COOL UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE U40S AND MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE STATE IN THE MORNING.
THE PATTERN TURNS QUITE UNSETTLED FOR LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A DEEP...SLOW-MOVING CLOSED LOW DROPS SE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...BEFORE BECOMING SITUATED FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST 00Z/06Z OPER/ENS
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN EVOLUTION/LOCATION OF THIS UPPER
LOW COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW MODEL RUNS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A STEADY FEED/PLUME OF MOISTURE
WILL STREAM NWWD AND SPIRAL AROUND THIS UPPER LOW...WITH THE
CURRENT TARGET AREA FOR THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOCATED
SOMEWHERE ACRS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN...EAST TO THE SUSQ VALLEY.
PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THE FINER DETAILS FOR THIS MDTLY HEAVY
PRECIP EVENT.
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER
FRIDAY AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RIDGE WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST. STILL KEPT MENTION OF A SHOWER SE ON SAT. POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER WAVE TO BRING CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY...BUT MODEL
CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THIS TIME.
SO OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER READING
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN A WARMING TREND. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE
TO BE HAD THIS WEEK WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN
A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CIGS. THE BOUNDARY HAS SLOWLY MOVED EASTWARD
AND DUE TO THE LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURES...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH LIFR VSBYS HAS SPREAD TO
ALL EASTERN TAF SITES. THIS FOG AND LOW STRATOCU SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING. IN ADDITION THE LOW CIGS...A BATCH OF SHRA
WITH TSRA WILL LIFT THRU THE REGION BTWN 08Z- 13Z ASSOC WITH AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. CURRENT RADAR HAS A LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST WITH ISOLATED TSRA MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
IMPROVING FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH
THRU THE REGION. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SUGGEST A RETURN TO
VFR CONDS IS LIKELY BY ARND 15Z AT KJST AND POSSIBLY BY AFTN
ACROSS THE EASTERN AIRFIELDS FROM KIPT SOUTH THRU KMDT/KLNS.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA. THIS COULD AFFECT MDT/LNS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY SE.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
523 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
COMBINE WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY SOME COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKE TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC WARM FRONT DEPICTED RATHER NICELY BY LATEST...04Z RAP LLVL
/SFC-925 MB/ ANALYSIS OF LIFTED INDICES. THE FRONT SNAKES IT WAY
FROM NEAR KBTP...TO KDUJ...TO KIDI AND THEN SOUTH INTO MD
PANHANDLE. WEAKER ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXTENDED FURTHER NE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AT 0530Z...WHERE 850 MB BASED LI/S WERE ABOUT -1
TO -2C.
APPROACHING SFC WAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET
OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP TO CONTINUE BLOSSOMING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY.
THE HIGHEST POPS /90-100 PERCENT/ WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA...BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPR LEVEL JET
AND COLLOCATED WITH THE NOSE OF 1-2 SIGMA SOUTHERLY LLJ.
OVER THE SERN HALF OF PENN...POPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50-70
PERCENT RANGE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX RACES NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE CWA WAS LEADING TO SOME 1/4-1/2SM FOG OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NWRN PENN...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL VARY FROM THE MID
AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S
OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST.
INITIAL BATCH OF TSRA /IN THE FORM OF MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY/ WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NE OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD
BE A FEW TO SVRL HOUR LULL IN PRECIP...PRIOR TO ANOTHER ROUND OR
TWO OF TSRA FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND ALONG A NEARLY NORTH/SOUTH LEE TROUGH. MODELS PAINT MDT
INSTABILITY AND MDTLY STRONG LLVL SHEAR ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 18-23Z. RAP/NAM EHIS BRIEFLY POKE UP
INTO THE 1-1.5 M2/S2 RANGE TO THE SE OF I-81 IN THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY BETWEEN 20-23Z...BETWEEN THE SFC LEE TROUGH AND QUASI-
STNRY/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 15 TO 25
SM TO THE EAST OF THE LOWER SUSQ MAINSTEM. PRIOR TO ANY UPSCALE
GROWTH IN INDIVIDUAL TSRA TO A BKN LINE /QLCS/...SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD CONTAIN WEAK TO MDTLY STRONG MESOS. ANY THREAT FOR A
WEAK ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD BE EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER...INVOF OF
BETTER LLVL SHEAR AND LOWER LCL HEIGHTS NEAR THE STNRY FRONT.
ANY PRECIP ACROSS THE NW ZONES LATER TODAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
ISOLATED -SHRA AS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
KBFD AREA BETWEEN 16-18Z.
MAX TEMPS /USING A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND/ RANGE FORM THE L-M 50S
IN THE NW...TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE SOME PULSES OF WEAK-MDT UVVEL INVOF OF THE
SLOWING CFRONT ACROSS SERN PENN WILL BRING THE CHC FOR A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WITH HIGHLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
THE CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE
TUESDAY AS A FEW WEAK SFC WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE RIPPLE NE
ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED CFRONT JUST TO OUR SE WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NNW INTO THE REGION. WILL STRONGLY CONSIDER
BOOSTING POPS UP LATE TONIGHT AND TUES MORNING WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR WHERE
LATEST SREF/GEFS SHOW 90+ PERCENT PROBS FOR 0.10 OF AN INCH OF
RAINFL...WITH 60-80 PROBS FOR 0.25 INCH OF QPF.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE COOL UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE U40S AND MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE AS A COOL UPPER LOW DROPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AND SETTLES NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THAT.
THE PATTERN TURNS QUITE UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW DROPS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...ACROSS PA AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
EVOLUTION IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREV MODEL GUIDANCE...AND INSTEAD
OF WRAPPING A SURFACE LOW BACK TO THE NE INTO PA WILL NOW MAINLY
KEEP A STEADY FEED OF COOLER MOIST AIR - YET STILL RESULT IN
PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND ESP THU...WITH FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN
GENERAL AROUND THE WED NIGHT TO FRI RANGE.
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGE WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. STILL KEPT MENTION OF A
SHOWER SE ON SAT. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WAVE TO BRING CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ON SUNDAY...BUT MODEL CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THIS TIME.
SO OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER READING
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN A WARMING TREND. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE
TO BE HAD THIS WEEK WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN
A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CIGS. THE BOUNDARY HAS SLOWLY MOVED EASTWARD
AND DUE TO THE LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURES...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH LIFR VSBYS HAS SPREAD TO
ALL EASTERN TAF SITES. THIS FOG AND LOW STRATOCU SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING. IN ADDITION THE LOW CIGS...A BATCH OF SHRA
WITH TSRA WILL LIFT THRU THE REGION BTWN 08Z- 13Z ASSOC WITH AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. CURRENT RADAR HAS A LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST WITH ISOLATED TSRA MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
IMPROVING FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH
THRU THE REGION. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SUGGEST A RETURN TO
VFR CONDS IS LIKELY BY ARND 15Z AT KJST AND POSSIBLY BY AFTN
ACROSS THE EASTERN AIRFIELDS FROM KIPT SOUTH THRU KMDT/KLNS.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA. THIS COULD AFFECT MDT/LNS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY SE.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
332 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY SOME COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC WARM FRONT DEPICTED RATHER NICELY BY LATEST...04Z RAP LLVL
/SFC-925 MB/ ANALYSIS OF LIFTED INDICES. THE FRONT SNAKES IT WAY
FROM NEAR KBTP...TO KDUJ...TO KIDI AND THEN SOUTH INTO MD
PANHANDLE. WEAKER ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXTENDED FURTHER NE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AT 0530Z...WHERE 850 MB BASED LI/S WERE ABOUT -1
TO -2C.
APPROACHING SFC WAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET
OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP TO BLOSSOM CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY TODAY. THE HIGHEST POPS /90-100 PERCENT/ WILL BE
ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ALONG THE TRACK OF THE
PRESENT CENTRAL AND NRN OHIO CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/SMALL SCALE MCS.
OVER THE SERN HALF OF PENN...POPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50-70
PERCENT RANGE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX RACES NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE CWA WAS LEADING TO SOME 1/4-1/2SM FOG OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NWRN PENN...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE PREDAWN HOURS
WILL VARY FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST...TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
ANY CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH
AND SOME MEAGER HEATING OCCURS.
HOWEVER...THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR SEEMS TO HAPPEN JUST AS WE
ARE WARMING UP. WHAT ARE CURRENTLY WARM MAX TEMPS COULD BUST AS
WELL...IF THE CLOUD COVER IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN EXPECTED. WINDS
COULD GET GUSTY /20S/ OVER THE LAURELS AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
O
OVERALL...THE AFTERNOON LOOKS DRIER THAN THE MORNING. THE ONLY
CHC TS IS ACROSS THE NE IN THE EARLY MORNING AND WAY FAR IN THE
SOUTH. BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOW IN THE AFTN IN THE SOUTH TO MAKE ANY
MENTION AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE AS A COOL UPPER LOW DROPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AND SETTLES NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THAT.
AHEAD OF THAT THOUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID OR LATE
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...WAVE WILL SLIDE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH SPREADING SHOWERS BACK INTO SOUTHERN PA AND
ESP THE SUSQ VALLEY. TOTAL QPF IN THE HARRISBURG AREA LOOKS TO BE
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS HEADING N AND W.
THE PATTERN TURNS QUITE UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW DROPS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...ACROSS PA AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
EVOLUTION IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREV MODEL GUIDANCE...AND INSTEAD
OF WRAPPING A SURFACE LOW BACK TO THE NE INTO PA WILL NOW MAINLY
KEEP A STEADY FEED OF COOLER MOIST AIR - YET STILL RESULT IN
PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND ESP THU...WITH FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN
GENERAL AROUND THE WED NIGHT TO FRI RANGE.
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGE WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. STILL KEPT MENTION OF A
SHOWER SE ON SAT. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WAVE TO BRING CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ON SUNDAY...BUT MODEL CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THIS TIME.
SO OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER READING
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN A WARMING TREND. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE
TO BE HAD THIS WEEK WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN
A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CIGS. THE BOUNDARY HAS SLOWLY MOVED EASTWARD
AND DUE TO THE LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURES...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH LIFR VSBYS HAS SPREAD TO
ALL EASTERN TAF SITES. THIS FOG AND LOW STRATOCU SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING. IN ADDITION THE LOW CIGS...A BATCH OF SHRA
WITH TSRA WILL LIFT THRU THE REGION BTWN 08Z- 13Z ASSOC WITH AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. CURRENT RADAR HAS A LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST WITH ISOLATED TSRA MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
IMPROVING FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH
THRU THE REGION. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SUGGEST A RETURN TO
VFR CONDS IS LIKELY BY ARND 15Z AT KJST AND POSSIBLY BY AFTN
ACROSS THE EASTERN AIRFIELDS FROM KIPT SOUTH THRU KMDT/KLNS.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA. THIS COULD AFFECT MDT/LNS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY SE.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
159 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY SOME COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC WARM FRONT DEPICTED RATHER NICELY BY LATEST...04Z RAP LLVL
/SFC-925 MB/ ANALYSIS OF LIFTED INDICES. THE FRONT SNAKES IT WAY
FROM NEAR KBTP...TO KDUJ...TO KIDI AND THEN SOUTH INTO MD
PANHANDLE. WEAKER ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXTENDED FURTHER NE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AT 0530Z...WHERE 850 MB BASED LI/S WERE ABOUT -1
TO -2C.
APPROACHING SFC WAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET
OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP TO BLOSSOM CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY TODAY. THE HIGHEST POPS /90-100 PERCENT/ WILL BE
ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ALONG THE TRACK OF THE
PRESENT CENTRAL AND NRN OHIO CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/SMALL SCALE MCS.
OVER THE SERN HALF OF PENN...POPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50-70
PERCENT RANGE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX RACES NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE CWA WAS LEADING TO SOME 1/4-1/2SM FOG OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NWRN PENN...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE PREDAWN HOURS
WILL VARY FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST...TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
ANY CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH
AND SOME MEAGER HEATING OCCURS.
HOWEVER...THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR SEEMS TO HAPPEN JUST AS WE
ARE WARMING UP. WHAT ARE CURRENTLY WARM MAX TEMPS COULD BUST AS
WELL...IF THE CLOUD COVER IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN EXPECTED. WINDS
COULD GET GUSTY /20S/ OVER THE LAURELS AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
O
OVERALL...THE AFTERNOON LOOKS DRIER THAN THE MORNING. THE ONLY
CHC TS IS ACROSS THE NE IN THE EARLY MORNING AND WAY FAR IN THE
SOUTH. BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOW IN THE AFTN IN THE SOUTH TO MAKE ANY
MENTION AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE AS A COOL UPPER LOW DROPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AND SETTLES NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THAT.
AHEAD OF THAT THOUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID OR LATE
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...WAVE WILL SLIDE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH SPREADING SHOWERS BACK INTO SOUTHERN PA AND
ESP THE SUSQ VALLEY. TOTAL QPF IN THE HARRISBURG AREA LOOKS TO BE
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS HEADING N AND W.
THE PATTERN TURNS QUITE UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW DROPS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...ACROSS PA AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
EVOLUTION IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREV MODEL GUIDANCE...AND INSTEAD
OF WRAPPING A SURFACE LOW BACK TO THE NE INTO PA WILL NOW MAINLY
KEEP A STEADY FEED OF COOLER MOIST AIR - YET STILL RESULT IN
PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND ESP THU...WITH FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN
GENERAL AROUND THE WED NIGHT TO FRI RANGE.
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGE WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. STILL KEPT MENTION OF A
SHOWER SE ON SAT. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WAVE TO BRING CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ON SUNDAY...BUT MODEL CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THIS TIME.
SO OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER READING
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN A WARMING TREND. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE
TO BE HAD THIS WEEK WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN
A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CIGS. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY WILL BE AT
KJST...WHERE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RESULTING IN VFR CONDS
AT 03Z. LATEST HRRR AND SREF OUTPUT SUGGEST THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND TO RESULT IN LOW CIGS
AFTER 06Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOW CIGS NOT AS HIGH AS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. IN ADDITION THE LOW CIGS...A
BATCH OF SHRA AND EVEN A POSS TSRA WILL LIKELY LIFT THRU THE
REGION BTWN 08Z-13Z ASSOC WITH AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRES.
IMPROVING FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MONDAY...AS LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH THRU
THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. MDL SOUNDINGS AND
SREF PROBS SUGGEST A RETURN TO VFR CONDS IS LIKELY BY ARND 12Z AT
KJST AND POSSIBLY BY AFTN ACROSS THE EASTERN AIRFIELDS FROM KIPT
SOUTH THRU KMDT/KLNS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY SE.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
223 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND BRING A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS FROM CANADA
THAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM...AS EXPECTED...THE REGION IS SEEING CONVECTION
POPPING UP ON RADAR IMAGERY...AS SBCAPE HAS INCREASED TO 1500-2500
J/KG AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS HAVE BEEN MADE. FORCING IS STILL SUBTLE
OVERALL...BUT WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTN AND EVENING PROGRESSES.
THE RAP SHOWS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KTS...WITH 30-40 KTS
ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. IN THAT AREA...THE SHEAR AND INSTBY WILL
COMBINE FOR A BETTER SEVERE STORM THREAT...WITH SUPERCELL-LIKE
STORMS POSSIBLE. SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FROM BUNCOMBE COUNTY NORTH AND EAST UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING. TO
THE SOUTH...GIVEN THE STRONG INSTBY...EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AS WELL.
THIS EVENING...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE NC MTNS FROM THE WEST...WHILE AN AREA OF DECENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE WILL SET UP WITHIN A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET
STREAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING ELCAPE OF 800-1500 J/KG
WITH IMPROVING SHEAR. CAMS AREA ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MAXIMUM
OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING. SO POPS ARE MAXIMIZED IN THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FROM 0-6Z...THEN START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THRU DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
TUESDAY...THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL SHIFT EAST...BUT
PERIODS OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DPVA WILL CONTINUE AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. A SFC
COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE MORNING...AND
LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-85. BULK SHEAR LOOKS
BETTER THAN MONDAY...BUT THE BETTER CAPE WILL BE TO THE EAST AS DRY
AIR STARTS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST. A DAY 2 MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IS
JUST TO OUR EAST. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHORT RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST HOLDS A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO OUR
RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME. ON TUESDAY...A SURFACE WAVE SHOULD
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH COMBINED
WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROF SHOULD HELP TO SLOWLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. UPPER FORCING WILL BE WEAK
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY COMES AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE
WESTERLY...WHICH DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
COVERAGE. WE MAY BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED PRECIP COVERAGE BUT
WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY...PRECIP
PROB DIMINISHES AND MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE FCST REFLECTS THIS
DOWNWARD TREND...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE TO OUR EAST. IN SPITE OF THE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH...THIS MID/UPPER SYSTEM HAS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE...THUS PRECIP CHANCES WERE CUT BACK IN MOST
PLACES. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LINGERING CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
IN THE EVENING...BUT THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A SMALL CHANCE ONLY
NEAR THE TN BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
MODELS SUGGEST A RELATIVE LULL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT WAVE
AND THE ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE UPPER LOW
FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY...ACCOUNTING
FOR AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES NEAR THE TN BORDER. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD BREAK CONTAINMENT AND MOVE OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT IN
THE EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORT CENTER. IN ITS
WAKE...PRECIP CHANCES TAPER BACK TO THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
PASSES...WITH A COOL-DOWN BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INITIAL
WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM MONDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK
WILL BE THE BIG COOL-DOWN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW
ROLLS DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE
MODELS HAVE A COOLER TREND FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY SO ABOUT A
CATEGORY WAS CUT OFF...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO SOMETHING ON
THE ORDER OF TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD EXPAND
OUTWARD FROM THE TN BORDER DURING THE DAY WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTING SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...PERHAPS LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE TN BORDER RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
THE COLDEST AIR AT MID LEVELS DRIFTING OVERHEAD EARLY THURSDAY...
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6K FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE FROM
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTERN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT SHOULD SPELL DRY WEATHER
WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY RETURNING TOWARD NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP RAPIDLY THIS
AFTN...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN. GIVEN
THE SHOTGUN APPEARANCE ON RADAR...TIMING WHEN CELLS WILL IMPACT
STILL TOO UNCERTAIN...SO WILL GO WITH FOUR HOUR TEMPO FROM 18-22Z.
THE INSTBY IS FAIRLY ROBUST...SO GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL THREAT WILL
EXIST WITH THE AFTN ACTIVITY. LATER THIS EVENING...STORMS FROM THE
WEST ARE EXPECT TO CROSS THE AREA...AS MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION WELL PASSED SUNSET. WILL CONTINUE THE PREVAILING
TSRA WITH LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF IN THE 6-9Z TIME FRAME. LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT LATE
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SW DIRECTION THRU THE
PERIOD...WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...BUT MAINLY
GUSTS WILL BE WITH CONVECTION.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT ABOVE. HAVE VCTS AND/OR TEMPO FOR TSRA
THIS AFTN...AS RADAR ECHOES ARE BLOSSOMING QUICKLY. MORE STORMS WILL
ENTER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...WITH MOISTURE AND
FORCING SUPPORTING CONVECTION WELL PAST SUNSET. PREVAILING TSRA AND
PROB30 FOR TS THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WINDS WILL FAVOR A S TO
SW DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SWITCHING TO NW AROUND 6Z AT
KAVL AS A FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GET HUNG UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THRU 18Z TUESDAY. AS FOR FOG AND/OR
STRATUS...GUIDANCE IS MIXED...BUT I EXPECT THAT IF WE GET WIDESPREAD
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND SOME CLEARING OF MID CLOUDS AND PRECIP ENDS
BEFORE DAYBREAK...MAY SEE MORE IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS. WILL GO
WITH MVFR FOR NOW. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...AFTN SHRA/TSRA EXPECT AGAIN TUESDAY...BUT MOSTLY EAST OF
THE MTNS. DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT
THRU THU...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY TO THE MTNS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 98% HIGH 86% HIGH 80%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 91% MED 71% HIGH 83%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 80% MED 75% HIGH 81%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 91% HIGH 85% HIGH 80%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 89% MED 70% HIGH 84%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 87% MED 62% HIGH 86%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1242 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO WX/POP/QPF GRIDS TO TRY AND IMPROVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS OF MORNING SHOWERS AND LIKELY HEAT OF THE
DAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LEAVING TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL BE INTO ND LATER THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM RADARS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP ON LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ND...MOVING SOUTHWARD. AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND EVEN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
SD. LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TODAY...BUT A FEW MEMBERS BRING THINGS INTO
THE JAMES VALLEY. IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS AN EVEN
FURTHER EASTWARD PUSH IN ACTIVITY TODAY AND BRINGS A LINE OF SHOWERS
INTO THE JAMES VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISO/WDLY SCT
AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN CWA TOWARDS I-29.
COOL POCKET OF 500 MB TEMPS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY ALLOWING FOR
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE HRRR CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF THIS EASTWARD PUSH IS A TREND THAT
CONTINUES. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...HAVE SLID POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST
TODAY...BUT KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD PROVIDE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS SO KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...MAKING WAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND LONGEVITY OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
HIGHS. KEPT WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THEY
WILL BE LEAST IMPACTED BY THESE VARIABLES. HIGHS COULD PUSH 70
THERE. 60S ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE BUT RANGE OF 60S ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP DURATION/FREQUENCY. TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN MILD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS A
NICE SURGE OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT 925/850 MB MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. WILL ALSO HAVE GOOD MIXING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST HELPING
TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS DAMPENED AS A
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY SWINGS ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
WITH DECENT WAA IN PLACE...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. THAT SAID...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF SOUTH DAKOTA. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR
IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE TERMINAL
OF KPIR WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING REDUCE VISIBILITIES
DUE TO THE SHOWERS. A FEW MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TAFS UPDATES WILL
REFLECT THE CHANGING CONDITIONS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1215 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
THE MAIN FEATURE TODAY IS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THIS LOW DOWN INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS IS
EVIDENCED BY FOLLOWING THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL QG FORCING. MOISTURE
IS FAIRLY DEEP WITH THIS SYSTEM IN OUR FAR WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY AROUND THE CHAMBERLAIN AREA...WHERE HIGH
END SCATTERED POPS ARE WARRANTED. BUT HEADING EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDLE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...THE MOISTURE PROFILE SHALLOWS OUT AS YOU
MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE WAVE. THIS WARRANTS JUST LOW END
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED POPS. IN OUR WEST...THE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER TO WARRANT A MENTION OF TSRA.
A SECOND FEATURE WHICH IS INTERESTING IS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
I 29 CORRIDOR. THE VARIOUS MODELS SHOW ABOUT A 75MB THICK CU DECK
CENTERED NEAR 750MB IN THAT STRIPE...WITH THE MOISTURE MORE SHALLOW
IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN ZONES FROM WINDOM TO STORM LAKE. BELIEVE WITH
THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND REMAINING UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW...
THAT WE WILL CU UP THIS AFTERNOON FROM I 29 EASTWARD...AND THE
MOISTURE DEPTH COULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I 29. THERE IS A SUBTLE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
NOTED AT 500MB VERY CLOSE TO SIOUX FALLS AT 00Z TUE...MAXIMIZED
WHERE THE AIR ALOFT IS THE COLDEST. WITH THE MID AND UPPER FLOW
SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST AT SIOUX CITY...KEPT KSUX DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I 29 COULD HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM ABOUT 3PM TO 6PM. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS...AS WELL AS THE ARW AND NMM.
OTHERWISE OVERALL THOUGH...WITH LIGHT WINDS IT WILL BE A NICE DAY
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE. FOR TONIGHT...IT
SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL AS OUR WESTERN WAVE DEPARTS LEAVING A RISK OF
SOME EARLY EVENING SHOWERS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THE HEATING DRIVEN
CUMULUS NEAR I 29 WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY. LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
TUESDAY ANOTHER STEP IN THE WARMER DIRECTION WITH A HEALTHY WESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD DROPPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCRAPING UP ALONG NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
CWA BORDER TOWARD EVENING...WHICH WILL GIVE A FULL DAY OF MIXING FOR
THE AREA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EARLY...BUT LOOK FOR A GREATER DEGREE
OF CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
MIXED VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A TAIL OF DIV Q WILL
BRUSH THROUGH SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE COULD BE ENOUGH TO ENTICE A FEW MORE WELL DEVELOPED
CUMULUS AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT LATE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUD LAYER STRUGGLING TO REACH -10C...LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH ICE PROCESS EVEN WITH 100-200 MLCAPE TO THREATEN ANY
LIGHTNING.
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH...ANY MAYBE A TOUCH STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE AS 20
TO 30 KNOTS IN WITHIN 1 KFT OF SURFACE DURING POST FRONTAL COLD
ADVECTION PERIOD...SO ADDED A TERRAIN ENHANCED 3-5 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE NIGHT. BLENDED IN TYPICALLY BETTER
CONSRAW MODEL DATA...AND EVEN THIS KEPT READINGS A BIT HIGHER TO
MATCH EXPECTED BREEZIER AREAS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SETTLE IN FOR A PLEASANT AND DRY PERIOD AS
OMEGA BLOCK BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE MID CONUS. SLIGHT COOLING
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE HEART OF THE AREA BY
EVENING...AND STILL OPEN FOR SOME BREEZIER NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY IN PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA. RIDGE LINGERS EAST OF I 29
ACROSS MAINLY NW IA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN FAVORING SOME OF THE
COLDER GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I 29. MORE SUN...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMING OFF SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN BOOST
READINGS INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO NUDGE EASTWARD OVER THE AREA...EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS WITH A FEW 80 DEGREES READINGS POPPING UP...BUT ALSO LIKELY
DEALING WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS.
THE OVERALL SITUATION BECOMES MUCH MORE MUDDLED BY THE WEEKEND...
WITH OMEGA BLOCK WEAKENING/BREAKDOWN SUBTLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS. MAIN DIFFERENCE LOOKS TO BE HOW STRONG HUDSON BAY
LOW MAINTAINS...AND WHAT KICK WAVE SLIDING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
GIVES TO EASTERN UPPER WAVE PORTION OF OMEGA BLOCK. IMPACT FOR OUR
AREA IS HOW AGGRESSIVELY A LOWER TO MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF/CANADIAN STRONGEST WITH WAVE FLATTENING RIDGE AND FASTEST AND
FURTHEST SOUTHWARD WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION...WHILE GFS A BIT MORE
LEISURELY IN PUSHING BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION ON
EVENTUAL PRECIPITATION THREAT BETWEEN SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS
PARTICULARLY WET THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...AND ECMWF QUICKLY SENDING
FOCUS MORE TOWARD I 80. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP FROM ANY STRONG
CONSENSUS AROUND THE REGION...AND AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY TRENDED FROM
FAIRLY BLANKETED UNIFORM POPS TO SHOW A BIT OF A LESSER CHANCE NORTH
VS. SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WESTERN UPPER LOW BEGINS A
WOBBLE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... AND
LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN/THUNDER DEVELOP JUST
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MORE
PREVALENT CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING BACK SEASONABLE 60S
ON SUNDAY.
WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP ONE EYE ON FRONTAL PROGRESSION ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF DECENT INSTABILITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY
AND POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE LOCALIZED SHEAR...MAINLY LOWER IN THE
WIND PROFILE...COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS IN THE
AREA OF THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 20Z ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. COULD SEE A MARGINAL WIND THREAT AS FAR EAST
AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...BT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1026 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO WX/POP/QPF GRIDS TO TRY AND IMPROVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS OF MORNING SHOWERS AND LIKELY HEAT OF THE
DAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LEAVING TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL BE INTO ND LATER THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM RADARS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP ON LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ND...MOVING SOUTHWARD. AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND EVEN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
SD. LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TODAY...BUT A FEW MEMBERS BRING THINGS INTO
THE JAMES VALLEY. IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS AN EVEN
FURTHER EASTWARD PUSH IN ACTIVITY TODAY AND BRINGS A LINE OF SHOWERS
INTO THE JAMES VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISO/WDLY SCT
AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN CWA TOWARDS I-29.
COOL POCKET OF 500 MB TEMPS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY ALLOWING FOR
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE HRRR CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF THIS EASTWARD PUSH IS A TREND THAT
CONTINUES. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...HAVE SLID POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST
TODAY...BUT KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD PROVIDE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS SO KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...MAKING WAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND LONGEVITY OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
HIGHS. KEPT WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THEY
WILL BE LEAST IMPACTED BY THESE VARIABLES. HIGHS COULD PUSH 70
THERE. 60S ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE BUT RANGE OF 60S ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP DURATION/FREQUENCY. TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN MILD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS A
NICE SURGE OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT 925/850 MB MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. WILL ALSO HAVE GOOD MIXING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST HELPING
TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS DAMPENED AS A
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY SWINGS ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
WITH DECENT WAA IN PLACE...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
MORNING...THEN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KMBG...KPIR AND POSSIBLY KABR WILL BE AFFECTED.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
637 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
THE MAIN FEATURE TODAY IS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THIS LOW DOWN INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS IS
EVIDENCED BY FOLLOWING THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL QG FORCING. MOISTURE
IS FAIRLY DEEP WITH THIS SYSTEM IN OUR FAR WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY AROUND THE CHAMBERLAIN AREA...WHERE HIGH
END SCATTERED POPS ARE WARRANTED. BUT HEADING EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDLE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...THE MOISTURE PROFILE SHALLOWS OUT AS YOU
MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE WAVE. THIS WARRANTS JUST LOW END
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED POPS. IN OUR WEST...THE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER TO WARRANT A MENTION OF TSRA.
A SECOND FEATURE WHICH IS INTERESTING IS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
I 29 CORRIDOR. THE VARIOUS MODELS SHOW ABOUT A 75MB THICK CU DECK
CENTERED NEAR 750MB IN THAT STRIPE...WITH THE MOISTURE MORE SHALLOW
IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN ZONES FROM WINDOM TO STORM LAKE. BELIEVE WITH
THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND REMAINING UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW...
THAT WE WILL CU UP THIS AFTERNOON FROM I 29 EASTWARD...AND THE
MOISTURE DEPTH COULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I 29. THERE IS A SUBTLE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
NOTED AT 500MB VERY CLOSE TO SIOUX FALLS AT 00Z TUE...MAXIMIZED
WHERE THE AIR ALOFT IS THE COLDEST. WITH THE MID AND UPPER FLOW
SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST AT SIOUX CITY...KEPT KSUX DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I 29 COULD HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM ABOUT 3PM TO 6PM. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS...AS WELL AS THE ARW AND NMM.
OTHERWISE OVERALL THOUGH...WITH LIGHT WINDS IT WILL BE A NICE DAY
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE. FOR TONIGHT...IT
SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL AS OUR WESTERN WAVE DEPARTS LEAVING A RISK OF
SOME EARLY EVENING SHOWERS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THE HEATING DRIVEN
CUMULUS NEAR I 29 WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY. LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
TUESDAY ANOTHER STEP IN THE WARMER DIRECTION WITH A HEALTHY WESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD DROPPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCRAPING UP ALONG NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
CWA BORDER TOWARD EVENING...WHICH WILL GIVE A FULL DAY OF MIXING FOR
THE AREA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EARLY...BUT LOOK FOR A GREATER DEGREE
OF CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
MIXED VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A TAIL OF DIV Q WILL
BRUSH THROUGH SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE COULD BE ENOUGH TO ENTICE A FEW MORE WELL DEVELOPED
CUMULUS AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT LATE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUD LAYER STRUGGLING TO REACH -10C...LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH ICE PROCESS EVEN WITH 100-200 MLCAPE TO THREATEN ANY
LIGHTNING.
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH...ANY MAYBE A TOUCH STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE AS 20
TO 30 KNOTS IN WITHIN 1 KFT OF SURFACE DURING POST FRONTAL COLD
ADVECTION PERIOD...SO ADDED A TERRAIN ENHANCED 3-5 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE NIGHT. BLENDED IN TYPICALLY BETTER
CONSRAW MODEL DATA...AND EVEN THIS KEPT READINGS A BIT HIGHER TO
MATCH EXPECTED BREEZIER AREAS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SETTLE IN FOR A PLEASANT AND DRY PERIOD AS
OMEGA BLOCK BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE MID CONUS. SLIGHT COOLING
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE HEART OF THE AREA BY
EVENING...AND STILL OPEN FOR SOME BREEZIER NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY IN PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA. RIDGE LINGERS EAST OF I 29
ACROSS MAINLY NW IA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN FAVORING SOME OF THE
COLDER GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I 29. MORE SUN...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMING OFF SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN BOOST
READINGS INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO NUDGE EASTWARD OVER THE AREA...EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS WITH A FEW 80 DEGREES READINGS POPPING UP...BUT ALSO LIKELY
DEALING WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS.
THE OVERALL SITUATION BECOMES MUCH MORE MUDDLED BY THE WEEKEND...
WITH OMEGA BLOCK WEAKENING/BREAKDOWN SUBTLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS. MAIN DIFFERENCE LOOKS TO BE HOW STRONG HUDSON BAY
LOW MAINTAINS...AND WHAT KICK WAVE SLIDING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
GIVES TO EASTERN UPPER WAVE PORTION OF OMEGA BLOCK. IMPACT FOR OUR
AREA IS HOW AGGRESSIVELY A LOWER TO MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF/CANADIAN STRONGEST WITH WAVE FLATTENING RIDGE AND FASTEST AND
FURTHEST SOUTHWARD WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION...WHILE GFS A BIT MORE
LEISURELY IN PUSHING BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION ON
EVENTUAL PRECIPITATION THREAT BETWEEN SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS
PARTICULARLY WET THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...AND ECMWF QUICKLY SENDING
FOCUS MORE TOWARD I 80. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP FROM ANY STRONG
CONSENSUS AROUND THE REGION...AND AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY TRENDED FROM
FAIRLY BLANKETED UNIFORM POPS TO SHOW A BIT OF A LESSER CHANCE NORTH
VS. SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WESTERN UPPER LOW BEGINS A
WOBBLE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... AND
LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN/THUNDER DEVELOP JUST
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MORE
PREVALENT CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING BACK SEASONABLE 60S
ON SUNDAY.
WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP ONE EYE ON FRONTAL PROGRESSION ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF DECENT INSTABILITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY
AND POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE LOCALIZED SHEAR...MAINLY LOWER IN THE
WIND PROFILE...COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS IN THE
AREA OF THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND LIKELY TONIGHT. THERE IS AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHWARD TODAY THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD.
THIS WILL AFFECT THE KHON TAF SITE WITH SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TSRA ALSO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT THE CHANCE FOR TSRA IS TOO SKITTISH TO WARRANT A MENTION
IN THE KHON TAF. FURTHER EAST...SOME INSTABILITY LIGHT SHOWERS
COULD FORM IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON NEAR I 29. BUT THEY TOO
WILL LIKELY BE TOO ISOLATED TO CURRENTLY WARRANT A MENTION IN THE
KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
628 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL BE INTO ND LATER THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM RADARS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP ON LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ND...MOVING SOUTHWARD. AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND EVEN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
SD. LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TODAY...BUT A FEW MEMBERS BRING THINGS INTO
THE JAMES VALLEY. IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS AN EVEN
FURTHER EASTWARD PUSH IN ACTIVITY TODAY AND BRINGS A LINE OF SHOWERS
INTO THE JAMES VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISO/WDLY SCT
AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN CWA TOWARDS I-29.
COOL POCKET OF 500 MB TEMPS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY ALLOWING FOR
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE HRRR CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF THIS EASTWARD PUSH IS A TREND THAT
CONTINUES. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...HAVE SLID POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST
TODAY...BUT KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD PROVIDE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS SO KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...MAKING WAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND LONGEVITY OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
HIGHS. KEPT WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THEY
WILL BE LEAST IMPACTED BY THESE VARIABLES. HIGHS COULD PUSH 70
THERE. 60S ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE BUT RANGE OF 60S ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP DURATION/FREQUENCY. TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN MILD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS A
NICE SURGE OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT 925/850 MB MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. WILL ALSO HAVE GOOD MIXING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST HELPING
TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS DAMPENED AS A
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY SWINGS ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
WITH DECENT WAA IN PLACE...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
MORNING...THEN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KMBG...KPIR AND POSSIBLY KABR WILL BE AFFECTED.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
355 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
THE MAIN FEATURE TODAY IS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THIS LOW DOWN INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS IS
EVIDENCED BY FOLLOWING THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL QG FORCING. MOISTURE
IS FAIRLY DEEP WITH THIS SYSTEM IN OUR FAR WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY AROUND THE CHAMBERLAIN AREA...WHERE HIGH
END SCATTERED POPS ARE WARRANTED. BUT HEADING EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDLE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...THE MOISTURE PROFILE SHALLOWS OUT AS YOU
MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE WAVE. THIS WARRANTS JUST LOW END
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED POPS. IN OUR WEST...THE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER TO WARRANT A MENTION OF TSRA.
A SECOND FEATURE WHICH IS INTERESTING IS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
I 29 CORRIDOR. THE VARIOUS MODELS SHOW ABOUT A 75MB THICK CU DECK
CENTERED NEAR 750MB IN THAT STRIPE...WITH THE MOISTURE MORE SHALLOW
IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN ZONES FROM WINDOM TO STORM LAKE. BELIEVE WITH
THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND REMAINING UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW...
THAT WE WILL CU UP THIS AFTERNOON FROM I 29 EASTWARD...AND THE
MOISTURE DEPTH COULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I 29. THERE IS A SUBTLE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
NOTED AT 500MB VERY CLOSE TO SIOUX FALLS AT 00Z TUE...MAXIMIZED
WHERE THE AIR ALOFT IS THE COLDEST. WITH THE MID AND UPPER FLOW
SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST AT SIOUX CITY...KEPT KSUX DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I 29 COULD HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM ABOUT 3PM TO 6PM. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS...AS WELL AS THE ARW AND NMM.
OTHERWISE OVERALL THOUGH...WITH LIGHT WINDS IT WILL BE A NICE DAY
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE. FOR TONIGHT...IT
SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL AS OUR WESTERN WAVE DEPARTS LEAVING A RISK OF
SOME EARLY EVENING SHOWERS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THE HEATING DRIVEN
CUMULUS NEAR I 29 WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY. LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
TUESDAY ANOTHER STEP IN THE WARMER DIRECTION WITH A HEALTHY WESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD DROPPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCRAPING UP ALONG NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
CWA BORDER TOWARD EVENING...WHICH WILL GIVE A FULL DAY OF MIXING FOR
THE AREA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EARLY...BUT LOOK FOR A GREATER DEGREE
OF CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
MIXED VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A TAIL OF DIV Q WILL
BRUSH THROUGH SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE COULD BE ENOUGH TO ENTICE A FEW MORE WELL DEVELOPED
CUMULUS AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT LATE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUD LAYER STRUGGLING TO REACH -10C...LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH ICE PROCESS EVEN WITH 100-200 MLCAPE TO THREATEN ANY
LIGHTNING.
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH...ANY MAYBE A TOUCH STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE AS 20
TO 30 KNOTS IN WITHIN 1 KFT OF SURFACE DURING POST FRONTAL COLD
ADVECTION PERIOD...SO ADDED A TERRAIN ENHANCED 3-5 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE NIGHT. BLENDED IN TYPICALLY BETTER
CONSRAW MODEL DATA...AND EVEN THIS KEPT READINGS A BIT HIGHER TO
MATCH EXPECTED BREEZIER AREAS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SETTLE IN FOR A PLEASANT AND DRY PERIOD AS
OMEGA BLOCK BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE MID CONUS. SLIGHT COOLING
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE HEART OF THE AREA BY
EVENING...AND STILL OPEN FOR SOME BREEZIER NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY IN PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA. RIDGE LINGERS EAST OF I 29
ACROSS MAINLY NW IA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN FAVORING SOME OF THE
COLDER GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I 29. MORE SUN...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMING OFF SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN BOOST
READINGS INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO NUDGE EASTWARD OVER THE AREA...EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS WITH A FEW 80 DEGREES READINGS POPPING UP...BUT ALSO LIKELY
DEALING WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS.
THE OVERALL SITUATION BECOMES MUCH MORE MUDDLED BY THE WEEKEND...
WITH OMEGA BLOCK WEAKENING/BREAKDOWN SUBTLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS. MAIN DIFFERENCE LOOKS TO BE HOW STRONG HUDSON BAY
LOW MAINTAINS...AND WHAT KICK WAVE SLIDING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
GIVES TO EASTERN UPPER WAVE PORTION OF OMEGA BLOCK. IMPACT FOR OUR
AREA IS HOW AGGRESSIVELY A LOWER TO MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF/CANADIAN STRONGEST WITH WAVE FLATTENING RIDGE AND FASTEST AND
FURTHEST SOUTHWARD WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION...WHILE GFS A BIT MORE
LEISURELY IN PUSHING BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION ON
EVENTUAL PRECIPITATION THREAT BETWEEN SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS
PARTICULARLY WET THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...AND ECMWF QUICKLY SENDING
FOCUS MORE TOWARD I 80. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP FROM ANY STRONG
CONSENSUS AROUND THE REGION...AND AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY TRENDED FROM
FAIRLY BLANKETED UNIFORM POPS TO SHOW A BIT OF A LESSER CHANCE NORTH
VS. SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WESTERN UPPER LOW BEGINS A
WOBBLE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... AND
LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN/THUNDER DEVELOP JUST
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MORE
PREVALENT CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING BACK SEASONABLE 60S
ON SUNDAY.
WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP ONE EYE ON FRONTAL PROGRESSION ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF DECENT INSTABILITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY
AND POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE LOCALIZED SHEAR...MAINLY LOWER IN THE
WIND PROFILE...COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS IN THE
AREA OF THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED
AT 936 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
WITH THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT...WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AND MAINLY SOUTH I 90. MODELS ARE NOT VERY ENTHUSIASTIC
ABOUT THE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT FEEL THAT THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL
IN LOW LYING AREAS FOR MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY AT KFSD AND KSUX
GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL BE INTO ND LATER THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM RADARS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP ON LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ND...MOVING SOUTHWARD. AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND EVEN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
SD. LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TODAY...BUT A FEW MEMBERS BRING THINGS INTO
THE JAMES VALLEY. IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS AN EVEN
FURTHER EASTWARD PUSH IN ACTIVITY TODAY AND BRINGS A LINE OF SHOWERS
INTO THE JAMES VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISO/WDLY SCT
AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN CWA TOWARDS I-29.
COOL POCKET OF 500 MB TEMPS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY ALLOWING FOR
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE HRRR CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF THIS EASTWARD PUSH IS A TREND THAT
CONTINUES. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...HAVE SLID POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST
TODAY...BUT KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD PROVIDE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS SO KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...MAKING WAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND LONGEVITY OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
HIGHS. KEPT WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THEY
WILL BE LEAST IMPACTED BY THESE VARIABLES. HIGHS COULD PUSH 70
THERE. 60S ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE BUT RANGE OF 60S ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP DURATION/FREQUENCY. TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN MILD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS A
NICE SURGE OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT 925/850 MB MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. WILL ALSO HAVE GOOD MIXING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST HELPING
TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS DAMPENED AS A
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY SWINGS ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
WITH DECENT WAA IN PLACE...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z...THEN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KMBG AND
KPIR WILL BE AFFECTED.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
249 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH TUPELO AND IS JUST ABOUT
READY TO EXIT THE MIDSOUTH. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
HAS BEEN ON A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPS
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 WHERE RAIN IS OCCURING TO MID 60S OVER NE
AR...TO OVER 70 ACROSS MONROE COUNTY.
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...MAYBE A
TSTM OVER NE MS...WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 AS ONE LAST
UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. AFTER THAT EXPECT GENERALLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON
TUESDAY WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE AND
TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER TROF WILL DROP INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...BUT NOT
TERRIBLY CONFIDENT IN THIS. THE UPPER TROF SWEEPING THROUGH SHOULD
HELP CLEAR SKIES OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DROP OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH REGION. A QUICK
WARMUP INTO THE MID 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WINDS BRIEFLY TURNS
WSW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TN
RIVER MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN CLEARING
SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MID 40S POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...MIDSOUTH LOCATED IN THE SWEET SPOT OF
A SLOW MOVING OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN. UPPER LOW INFLUENCE CONTINUES
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND LOWS FRIDAY MORNING 45 TO 50.
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB TOWARD 80 THIS WEEKEND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMING INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS POINT TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROF.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD CLEARED TUP AT 17Z. MIDSOUTH TAF SITES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE ALONG ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A UTA/TUP LINE THIS AFTERNOON. 16Z RUC AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE
ONLY ISOLATED SHRA THEREAFTER.
REGARDING CIGS...EXPECT NARROW CORRIDOR OF IFR ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MS RIVER TO LIFT EAST OF MEM...EXPOSING MVFR CIGS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THEREAFTER.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
956 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS SITUATED OVER NORTH MS MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG
A COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO OCNL HEAVY RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS WEST AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MS WHERE THE SOME
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
SINCE CELLS ARE MOVING SLOWLY. ALREADY UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS
IN THE SHORT TERM ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIVER FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THEN TRIMMED POPS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIP
STARTS TO MOVE OUT.
SJM
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70S AT MEMPHIS...BUT ARE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS IS THE COOLEST AREA WHERE CORNING AND WALNUT RIDGE ARE
REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S. MORNING LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA STRETCHING FROM NEAR
PARIS TENNESSEE ACROSS MEMPHIS INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING...WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LAPS LI`S ARE BELOW -2C ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH CAPE 350 J/KG OR LESS. HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST HELPING TO PROVIDE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LAPS RATES ARE MODEST...AROUND 7.5C SO HAIL WOULD
BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...UP TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING SO
HOPEFULLY THAT WILL LIMIT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE HRRR HAD BEEN
PERFORMING WELL UNTIL YESTERDAY...AND DOESN`T SEEM TO HAVE A
HANDEL ON THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND NORTH
LOUISIANA. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING.
IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT. HIGHS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MAY APPROACH 80 ONE MORE
DAY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS AFTERNOON...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY GIVING THE SURFACE FRONT ANOTHER
NUDGE OFF TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
WE WILL SEE A BLOCKING PATTERN SET UP TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS....POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT BENIGN WEATHER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MAY BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO
WEST TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
HIGHS MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S IN DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WORK WEEK IN THE COOLEST PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. WIDESPREAD
LOW 70S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
WEEK OR SO SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY MORNING WHEN SOME
LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE LOW 50S MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
WARMER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
CURRENTLY A LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA IS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE FA
AND WILL SOON IMPACT ALL TERMINALS. HAVE PREVAILED SHRA AND VCTS THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPO TO HANDLE TSRA AND LOWER VISBYS TO MVFR CAT.
GIVEN THE POOR HANDLING OF CONVECTION BY MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING IS LOW. WINDS
GENERALLY FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 5 AND 12 KTS
TODAY...AND SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY TO BE NEAR 5 KTS BY END OF PERIOD.
VCSH INCLUDED THROUGH TONIGHT BUT DROPPED LATE IN PERIOD AS FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF REGION.
ZDM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
638 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70S AT MEMPHIS...BUT ARE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS IS THE COOLEST AREA WHERE CORNING AND WALNUT RIDGE ARE
REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S. MORNING LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA STRETCHING FROM NEAR
PARIS TENNESSEE ACROSS MEMPHIS INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING...WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LAPS LI`S ARE BELOW -2C ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH CAPE 350 J/KG OR LESS. HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HELPING TO PROVIDE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LAPS RATES ARE MODEST...AROUND 7.5C SO HAIL WOULD
BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...UP TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING SO
HOPEFULLY THAT WILL LIMIT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE HRRR HAD BEEN
PERFORMING WELL UNTIL YESTERDAY...AND DOESN`T SEEM TO HAVE A
HANDEL ON THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND NORTH
LOUISIANA. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING.
IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT. HIGHS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MAY APPROACH 80 ONE MORE
DAY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS AFTERNOON...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY GIVING THE SURFACE FRONT ANOTHER
NUDGE OFF TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
WE WILL SEE A BLOCKING PATTERN SET UP TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS....POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT BENIGN WEATHER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MAY BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO
WEST TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
HIGHS MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S IN DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WORK WEEK IN THE COOLEST PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. WIDESPREAD
LOW 70S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
WEEK OR SO SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY MORNING WHEN SOME
LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE LOW 50S MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
WARMER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
CURRENTLY A LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA IS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE FA
AND WILL SOON IMPACT ALL TERMINALS. HAVE PREVAILED SHRA AND VCTS THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPO TO HANDLE TSRA AND LOWER VISBYS TO MVFR CAT.
GIVEN THE POOR HANDLING OF CONVECTION BY MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING IS LOW. WINDS
GENERALLY FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 5 AND 12 KTS
TODAY...AND SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY TO BE NEAR 5 KTS BY END OF PERIOD.
VCSH INCLUDED THROUGH TONIGHT BUT DROPPED LATE IN PERIOD AS FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF REGION.
ZDM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
400 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70S AT MEMPHIS...BUT ARE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS IS THE COOLEST AREA WHERE CORNING AND WALNUT RIDGE ARE
REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S. MORNING LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA STRETCHING FROM NEAR
PARIS TENNESSEE ACROSS MEMPHIS INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING...WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LAPS LI`S ARE BELOW -2C ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH CAPE 350 J/KG OR LESS. HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HELPING TO PROVIDE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LAPS RATES ARE MODEST...AROUND 7.5C SO HAIL WOULD
BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...UP TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING SO
HOPEFULLY THAT WILL LIMIT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE HRRR HAD BEEN
PERFORMING WELL UNTIL YESTERDAY...AND DOESN`T SEEM TO HAVE A
HANDEL ON THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND NORTH
LOUISIANA. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING.
IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT. HIGHS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MAY APPROACH 80 ONE MORE
DAY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS AFTERNOON...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY GIVING THE SURFACE FRONT ANOTHER
NUDGE OFF TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
WE WILL SEE A BLOCKING PATTERN SET UP TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS....POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT BENIGN WEATHER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MAY BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO
WEST TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
HIGHS MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S IN DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WORK WEEK IN THE COOLEST PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. WIDESPREAD
LOW 70S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
WEEK OR SO SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY MORNING WHEN SOME
LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE LOW 50S MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
WARMER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHORT TERM MODELS DEPICT SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY SOUTH
AND ALONG I-40 OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES OF -TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE AT
12Z-15Z AT KMEM AND KMKL...AND 15Z-18Z AT KTUP. COVERAGE WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE TOMORROW MORNING AT KMEM AND KMKL. RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT KTUP UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR
AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMEM...KMKL..AND KTUP...AND ONLY
VFR ARE EXPECTED FOR KJBR.
JPM3
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
140 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A DEEP UPPER LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL SAG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
APPALACHIANS KEEPING AN UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
WILL BE LAUNCHING AN 18Z RNK SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. RAISED
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE EAST A FEW DEGREES.
SHAPED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE 4KM NAM. CONVECTION IS
START TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AS
EXPECTED WITH HRRR AND NAM. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 954 AM EDT MONDAY...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG HAS ENDED. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFTING AND MIXING OUT THIS
MORNING. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GREENBRIER COUNTY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS FOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED LIS
AROUND MINUS 4 TO MINUS 6 AND CAPES ABOUT 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
SUPPORT ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION. THE LATEST DAY ONE
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK PLACES MUCH OF CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. LEANED POPS TOWARDS THE
HIRESW- ARW AND HRRR FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MORE CHANGES
LATER THIS MORNING.
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...
AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS WEATHERWISE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
MAIN CONCERNS BEING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. OVERALL...EXPECTING GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE
TODAY THAN OBSERVED SUNDAY...ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES DRAPED
ATOP THE FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND...ALL
EMANATING FROM A PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD IN
RESPONSE TO REPEATED DISTURBANCES...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WITH
COLD POOL OUTFLOW...AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW ALL THE WHILE
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY 00Z THIS EVENING...EXPECT
THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN TN INTO EASTERN WV AND CENTRAL
MD. EXPECTING AMPLE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL
PUSH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY MID-
LATE AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S AND PWATS NEARING
1.5 INCH AND AT LEAST WEAK SHEAR...AND A WEAKLY DIFFLUENT UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. AS
A RESULT...SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MUCH OF THE CWA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHEAR/HELICITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH THE BETTER OF SUCH LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN VA/MD/DC AREA...WHERE SPC HAS INDICATED A 5 PERCENT RISK
OF TORNADOES. MAIN THREATS IN OUR AREA...AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST
FEW DAYS...SHOULD BE HAIL AND SOME WIND DAMAGE WITH DCAPES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. 500MB TEMPS ARE COOLING TOWARD
-20C THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE FREEZING LEVEL IS RELATIVELY LOW.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS. THIS ISSUE IS ADDRESSED BELOW IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION...GENERALLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO MIDDLE TN/NORTHERN AL.
THUS...WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AFTER 18Z
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SPREADING SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE IN THE 22Z-04Z TIME FRAME.
WITH NO WEDGE IN PLACE TODAY AND SOME INSOLATION
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARM
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. TEMPS SUN WERE QUITE WARM AS THE WEDGE BROKE
MUCH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING NEAR
+12C AGAIN TODAY...IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...70S WEST TO LOWER 80S
EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT COULD SEE SOME
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY PRESENT...DUE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S IN THIS AREA. THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES TOWARD THE COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW
LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S.
BY WEDNESDAY..A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH FROM HUDSON
BAY IN CANADA TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. THE MODELS INSIST THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A CUT OFF LOW DURING
THURSDAY...WHILE ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE PLAINS
BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...THIS OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SHOULD BLOCK THE
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. DUE TO THE CLOSED LOW
OVERHEAD...EXPECT GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL...IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT FEEL LIKE THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY
TOWARD THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TUMBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. 85H
TEMPS OF 0 TO +5 DEG C ARE PROGGED TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND IF THIS VERIFIES...IT WILL SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS THE UPPER
LOW PASSES OVERHEAD...COLD POOL ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING FOR A DAILY THREAT OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS.
CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT PER BLOCKY LOOK TO THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN...WITH CUTOFF LOWS ON THE WEST AND EAST COASTS AND
A RIDGE UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. UNLIKE THE LAST OMEGA BLOCK
WHERE THE MID ATLANTIC ENJOYED UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...JUST THE OPPOSITE IS OCCURRING THIS GO
ROUND.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE MODELS INDICATE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EAST TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
MODERATING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
ATTM...WEEKEND AS A WHOLE LOOKS DRY. WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INSTABILITY...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE MUCH COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT MONDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED AS SLOW MOVING FRONT
COMBINES WITH UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMANATING FROM SOUTHERN
PLAINS UPPER LOW.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FORMING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE PRECIPITATION AREA.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER IN THE WEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR WITH SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WSW-W
AFTER THUNDERSTORMS PASS WITH SOME LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT BEHIND CONVECTION.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE MID ATLANTIC IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS...VSBYS...AND WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL IMPROVE MVFR CONDITION TO VFR CONDITIONS. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ARRIVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY...AND
SETTLE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK. OVERALL...FLYING
CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER POOR FOR LATE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS...PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND PATCHY FOG.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
954 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A DEEP UPPER LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL SAG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
APPALACHIANS KEEPING AN UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 954 AM EDT MONDAY...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG HAS ENDED. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFTING AND MIXING OUT THIS
MORNING. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GREENBRIER COUNTY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS FOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED LIS
AROUND MINUS 4 TO MINUS 6 AND CAPES ABOUT 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
SUPPORT ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION. THE LATEST DAY ONE
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK PLACES MUCH OF CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. LEANED POPS TOWARDS THE
HIRESW- ARW AND HRRR FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MORE CHANGES
LATER THIS MORNING.
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...
AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS WEATHERWISE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
MAIN CONCERNS BEING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. OVERALL...EXPECTING GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE
TODAY THAN OBSERVED SUNDAY...ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES DRAPED
ATOP THE FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND...ALL
EMANATING FROM A PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD IN
RESPONSE TO REPEATED DISTURBANCES...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WITH
COLD POOL OUTFLOW...AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW ALL THE WHILE
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY 00Z THIS EVENING...EXPECT
THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN TN INTO EASTERN WV AND CENTRAL
MD. EXPECTING AMPLE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL
PUSH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY MID-
LATE AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S AND PWATS NEARING
1.5 INCH AND AT LEAST WEAK SHEAR...AND A WEAKLY DIFFLUENT UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. AS
A RESULT...SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MUCH OF THE CWA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHEAR/HELICITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH THE BETTER OF SUCH LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN VA/MD/DC AREA...WHERE SPC HAS INDICATED A 5 PERCENT RISK
OF TORNADOES. MAIN THREATS IN OUR AREA...AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST
FEW DAYS...SHOULD BE HAIL AND SOME WIND DAMAGE WITH DCAPES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. 500MB TEMPS ARE COOLING TOWARD
-20C THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE FREEZING LEVEL IS RELATIVELY LOW.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS. THIS ISSUE IS ADDRESSED BELOW IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION...GENERALLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO MIDDLE TN/NORTHERN AL.
THUS...WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AFTER 18Z
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SPREADING SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE IN THE 22Z-04Z TIME FRAME.
WITH NO WEDGE IN PLACE TODAY AND SOME INSOLATION
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARM
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. TEMPS SUN WERE QUITE WARM AS THE WEDGE BROKE
MUCH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING NEAR
+12C AGAIN TODAY...IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...70S WEST TO LOWER 80S
EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT COULD SEE SOME
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY PRESENT...DUE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S IN THIS AREA. THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES TOWARD THE COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW
LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S.
BY WEDNESDAY..A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH FROM HUDSON
BAY IN CANADA TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. THE MODELS INSIST THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A CUT OFF LOW DURING
THURSDAY...WHILE ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE PLAINS
BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...THIS OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SHOULD BLOCK THE
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. DUE TO THE CLOSED LOW
OVERHEAD...EXPECT GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL...IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT FEEL LIKE THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY
TOWARD THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TUMBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. 85H
TEMPS OF 0 TO +5 DEG C ARE PROGGED TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND IF THIS VERIFIES...IT WILL SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS THE UPPER
LOW PASSES OVERHEAD...COLD POOL ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING FOR A DAILY THREAT OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS.
CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT PER BLOCKY LOOK TO THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN...WITH CUTOFF LOWS ON THE WEST AND EAST COASTS AND
A RIDGE UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. UNLIKE THE LAST OMEGA BLOCK
WHERE THE MID ATLANTIC ENJOYED UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...JUST THE OPPOSITE IS OCCURRING THIS GO
ROUND.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE MODELS INDICATE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EAST TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
MODERATING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
ATTM...WEEKEND AS A WHOLE LOOKS DRY. WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INSTABILITY...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE MUCH COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT MONDAY...
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED AS SLOW MOVING FRONT COMBINES WITH
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMANATING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.
LATE DAY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY HAVE LEFT THE REGION WITH
MOIST GROUND AND CONSEQUENTLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
THIS MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING...MAINLY IN INTO THE MVFR TO LOW END VFR CATEGORY UNTIL
SHRA/TSRA ARRIVE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
LOCALIZED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH CONVECTION...THEN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR MVFR OR WORSE VSBYS/CIGS OVERNIGHT IN
LINGERING SHRA/TSRA AFTER 06Z.
WINDS SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFT 14Z. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOCATION
AND TIMING OF SUCH ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE WSW-W AFTER THUNDERSTORMS PASS WITH SOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT BEHIND
CONVECTION.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS...VSBYS...AND WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE MID ATLANTIC IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY...BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED EASTWARD BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ARRIVE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY...AND SETTLE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WORK WEEK. OVERALL...FLYING CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER POOR FOR
LATE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS...PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...AND PATCHY FOG.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PW/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
157 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL HEAD INTO
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...STALLING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN FINALLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST BY MIDWEEK. FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...KEEPING AN UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1113 PM EDT SUNDAY...
UPDATED TO DROP SEVERE WATCH 135 AS DEEPER CONVECTION HAS EITHER
MOVED EAST OF THE WATCH BOX OR HAS WEAKENED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA
ALONG THE BOTTOM EDGE OF THE BOX. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING SOME
CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ESPCLY EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE INSTABILITY REMAINS AROUND 1K J/KG. THUS
KEEPING HIGHER POPS GOING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CUTTING
POPS BACK TO ISOLATED PER LATEST HRRR. ALSO FOG LIKELY TO BECOME
AN ISSUE GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENING SO BEEFED UP COVERAGE. OTRW ONLY SOME
SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTS TO TEMPS OVERNIGHT PER SATURATION AND
LINGERING CLOUDS.
UPDATE AS OF 1000 PM EDT SUNDAY...
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPILL EAST/SE TOWARD AND
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE SO WILL HANG ON TO THE GOING WATCH A WHILE
LONGER AND PERHAPS DROP AROUND 11 PM PENDING TRENDS. HOWEVER
EARLIER HRRR WAS ON TRACK WITH CELLS EVOLVING INTO A LINE AND
DIPPING SOUTH SO WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS GOING FARTHER SOUTH GIVEN
LINGERING 1500 J/KG MLCAPE SEEN OFF THE SPC ANALYSIS. ALSO
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NW NC TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE MAY
IMPACT SOUTHERN SECTIONS LONGER OVERNIGHT SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
OTRW FEW ADDED CHANGES UNTIL CONVECTION FADES SOME AS THE
REMAINDER LOOKS ON TRACK FOR NOW.
UPDATE AS OF 750 PM EDT SUNDAY...
UPDATE TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 135 FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTH AND WEST UNTIL MIDNIGHT. STORMS CONTINUE TO ROLL ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY. ENOUGH RECOVERY HAS OCCURRED SINCE
EARLIER RAINFALL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO MAINTAIN SEVERE
STRENGTH UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE
DEEPER CONVECTION REMAINS IFFY GIVEN LESS CAPE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. FEW OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 320 PM EDT SUNDAY...
FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN UPPER WAVES. LOOKING FURTHER
WEST...ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE OVER KY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
UPPER SHORTWAVE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES. AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING
THIS WAVE IS GOING TO NOSE EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THINKING IS THE SAME AS
EARLIER...IN THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY
EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A SCT/BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
POSSIBLY SHIFTING EAST/SOUTHEAST FROM SE WV TO THE PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. SVR PARAMETERS FAVOR STRONGER STORMS IN WV/KY/FAR SW
VA...BUT WEAKEN FURTHER EAST...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT STRONGER STORMS
TO THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING. ORIENTATION OF THE CONVECTION AND
SPEED OF MOVEMENT SHOULD PREVENT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT...THOUGH
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE 1 INCH+ WE HAD EARLIER
TODAY IN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. STILL NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLOOD
WATCH.
FOR LATE TONIGHT...SHOWERS WANE AND WILL SEE CONTINUED SW ALOFT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY GIVEN HIGHER
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LVLS. FOG PARAMETERS ALSO FAVOR GOOD COVERAGE OF
FOG ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS AND WHERE IT RAINS THIS
EVENING...DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE
CONVECTION.
MONDAY...WE WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT MOVE FROM THE EASTERN OHIO
VALLEY SOUTHWEST TO MIDDLE TN IN THE MORNING...SLOWLY EAST TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING ALOFT BUT WILL STILL SEE SOME
SUNSHINE AT TIMES AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MUCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG
BY MID AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT AGREEMENT THAT THE 2ND OF
THE UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON LEADING TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. IF THE FRONT MOVES QUICKER THEN CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER
LOW LVL INSTABILITY. THE BEST SHEAR LOOKS TO SITUATE ITSELF FROM FAR
SW VA/SE KY NORTHWARD INTO THE MD/PA AREA...SO THIS COULD LEAD TO
MORE OF A WIND THREAT IN OUR FAR WRN CWA...WITH MARGINALLY STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS EAST.
BETTER LOW LVL AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DOES NOT REALLY GET GOING
UNTIL AFTER 21Z/5PM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SO COULD BE ANOTHER LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING EVENT.
WITH NO WEDGE MONDAY AND DEPENDING ON SKY COVER...TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER 80S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT SUBJECTING AREA TO NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS. PENDING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST
STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
SEND ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY...BEGINNING A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. OTHER THAN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...NOT
MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. FRONTAL LIFT WILL PROVIDE A
BETTER CHANCE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FAVOR READINGS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TUMBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. 85H
TEMPS OF 0 TO +5 DEG C ARE PROGGED TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND IF THIS VERIFIES...IT WILL SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS THE UPPER
LOW PASSES OVERHEAD...COLD POOL ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING FOR A DAILY THREAT OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS.
CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT PER BLOCKY LOOK TO THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN...WITH CUTOFF LOWS ON THE WEST AND EAST COASTS AND
A RIDGE UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. UNLIKE THE LAST OMEGA BLOCK
WHERE THE MID ATLANTIC ENJOYED UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...JUST THE OPPOSITE IS OCCURRING THIS GO
ROUND.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE MODELS INDICATE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EAST TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
MODERATING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
ATTM...WEEKEND AS A WHOLE LOOKS DRY. WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INSTABILITY...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE MUCH COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT MONDAY...
EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOSTLY SUBSIDED...BUT
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT.
WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR FOR MOST TAF SITES...THE EXCEPTION IS
KBLF WHERE CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN TO LIFR ALONG WITH 1/2SM FOG. DUE
TO THE MOIST GROUND FROM RECENT RAINFALL...IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY
THAT MOST TAF SITES WILL DROP TO IFR DUE TO GROUND FOG. CONFIDENCE
IS LOWEST FOR IFR AT KROA WHERE CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES MAY STAY
AT VFR...ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY.
WINDS SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING MONDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY LATE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME BROKEN CUMULUS TO DEVELOP AS
SOME SUNSHINE DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION SEEMS MORE WIDESPREAD...SO A MENTION OF
VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT ALL SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVERHEAD ON MONDAY EVENING...AND WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DURING TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE MID ATLANTIC IN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DURING TUESDAY...BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS PUSHED EASTWARD BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY...AND SETTLE
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK. OVERALL...FLYING
CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER POOR FOR LATE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS...PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND PATCHY FOG.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
607 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND SOME HIGHER WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND NEAR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT 1/10 INCH OR LESS AND LIKELY CONFINED
TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT BUT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT. PLAN ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT WE WILL STAY IN A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. IT WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. WE SHOULD SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
SETTING THE STAGE FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG WITH PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FROST. HAVE KEPT PATCHY GOING IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGING THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WHEN HIGH WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN DROP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. WE MAY EVEN
SEE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER AND WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE HELD RAIN CHANCES IN THE
30-40 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE. WE THEN LOOK TO DRY OUT FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN
THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WOULD REESTABLISH ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
THE COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING STEADILY SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE
LINES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS WISCONSIN BUT HAVE YET TO SHOW MUCH WESTWARD
EXPANSION INTO MINNESOTA. THE 03.21Z HRRR AND 03.20Z CR-HRRR STILL
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A WESTWARD EXPANSION SO WILL MAINTAIN THE
TEMPO GROUPS WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES UNTIL THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PAST EARLY THIS EVENING. ONCE THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
AND THEN TO THE NORTH AND WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOWN ON THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EXPECT THE
SKIES TO QUICKLY CLEAR OUT. GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ALLOW FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT BOTH
SITES. ALSO EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS TO FORM AND THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF VFR CEILING WITH THESE CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH. RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. PLAN ON ONLY A TRACE TO POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL. WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LOCALLY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1223 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS/TEMPERATURES AND THEN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
AMONG THE 02.00Z RUNS AND WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED APPROACH.
FOR TODAY...A SHORT-WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...KEEPING PRECIP WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO HOME...RAP/GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING TO EVENTUALLY FILL-IN WITH BROKEN
THERMAL CUMULUS. COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES FROM THIS CLOUD DECK
GIVEN HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS UP TO AT LEAST 500 HPA...NOT
EXPECTING ANY MEANINGFUL SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY...BUT SPRINKLES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER TODAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 60S.
THERMAL CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 HPA TEMPERATURES RISE TO BETWEEN +13 AND
+15 CELSIUS RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WI TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90.
BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO DEEPENS TO AROUND 800 HPA WITH ROUGHLY 25 TO
30 KTS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 30 MPH OR MORE. ELSEWHERE...
EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
25 MPH.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF 100 KT 300
HPA JET STREAK WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS PROGRESSING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. AS A RESULT...INCREASED POPS TO 80 PERCENT LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW 100-200 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. WITH A
COOLER WEDNESDAY (HIGHS UPPER 50S/60S) IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY
NIGHT/S FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE EACH DAY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGHS BY FRIDAY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
70S AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500 HPA RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CONUS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH AND A FOUR CORNERS
CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES
AT THIS POINT TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
BROKEN CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 5KFT WILL SCATTER OUT BY SUNSET.
PLAN ON WEST WINDS INCREASING BY LATER TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 10
TO 15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT BY 14-15Z.
WILL BE WATCHING FOR STRONGER/GUSTIER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THAT FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH. ALSO LOOKING FOR A BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD T TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. MORE DETAIL WILL BE PROVIDED WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
659 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS/TEMPERATURES AND THEN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
AMONG THE 02.00Z RUNS AND WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED APPROACH.
FOR TODAY...A SHORT-WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...KEEPING PRECIP WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO HOME...RAP/GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING TO EVENTUALLY FILL-IN WITH BROKEN
THERMAL CUMULUS. COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES FROM THIS CLOUD DECK
GIVEN HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS UP TO AT LEAST 500 HPA...NOT
EXPECTING ANY MEANINGFUL SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY...BUT SPRINKLES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER TODAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 60S.
THERMAL CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 HPA TEMPERATURES RISE TO BETWEEN +13 AND
+15 CELSIUS RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WI TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90.
BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO DEEPENS TO AROUND 800 HPA WITH ROUGHLY 25 TO
30 KTS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 30 MPH OR MORE. ELSEWHERE...
EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
25 MPH.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF 100 KT 300
HPA JET STREAK WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS PROGRESSING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. AS A RESULT...INCREASED POPS TO 80 PERCENT LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW 100-200 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. WITH A
COOLER WEDNESDAY (HIGHS UPPER 50S/60S) IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY
NIGHT/S FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE EACH DAY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGHS BY FRIDAY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
70S AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500 HPA RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CONUS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH AND A FOUR CORNERS
CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES
AT THIS POINT TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL STAY SOUTH OF KLSE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WIND WINDS THROUGH THE
TIME PERIOD. AS WE REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY LATE
MORNING... A SCATTERED TO BROKEN 5K DECK OF CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP.
THESE CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
325 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS/TEMPERATURES AND THEN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
AMONG THE 02.00Z RUNS AND WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED APPROACH.
FOR TODAY...A SHORT-WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...KEEPING PRECIP WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO HOME...RAP/GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING TO EVENTUALLY FILL-IN WITH BROKEN
THERMAL CUMULUS. COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES FROM THIS CLOUD DECK
GIVEN HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS UP TO AT LEAST 500 HPA...NOT
EXPECTING ANY MEANINGFUL SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY...BUT SPRINKLES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER TODAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 60S.
THERMAL CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 HPA TEMPERATURES RISE TO BETWEEN +13 AND
+15 CELSIUS RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WI TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90.
BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO DEEPENS TO AROUND 800 HPA WITH ROUGHLY 25 TO
30 KTS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 30 MPH OR MORE. ELSEWHERE...
EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
25 MPH.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF 100 KT 300
HPA JET STREAK WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS PROGRESSING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. AS A RESULT...INCREASED POPS TO 80 PERCENT LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW 100-200 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. WITH A
COOLER WEDNESDAY (HIGHS UPPER 50S/60S) IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY
NIGHT/S FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE EACH DAY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGHS BY FRIDAY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
70S AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500 HPA RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CONUS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH AND A FOUR CORNERS
CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES
AT THIS POINT TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
MOSTLY SKC/SCT FROM I-90 NORTH...BUT TO THE SOUTH BKN VFR CIGS HAVE
PERSISTED...AND MAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCT-BKN CIGS SHOULD RETURN
FOR THE TAF SITES TOWARD 18Z MONDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAVOR CU DEVELOPMENT. DON/T THINK -SHRA
ARE A THREAT AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK TO STAY LIGHT THANKS TO A
SAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH DIRECTION VARIABLE BETWEEN NORTHWEST-
NORTHEAST...THEN MORE VRBL AT NIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1213 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
.UPDATE...
838 PM CDT
THERE WERE ONLY A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND ALL
FAIRLY MINOR SINCE THE MAIN THEME OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES...SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS TONIGHT WITH WINDY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS MOVING IN. THE CHANGES INCLUDED 1.) HAVING
INCREASED THE THUNDER LIKELIHOOD OVERNIGHT...2.) BUMPED UP WIND
GUSTS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...AND 3.) FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WENT WITH MORE COVERAGE WORDING OF SHOWERS AS
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS FAIRLY HIGH...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
EAST OF INTERSTATE 39.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING PORTRAYS A REALLY WELL-DEFINED
SHORT WAVE UPPER CIRCULATION AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHARPLY
DIGGING BROADER TROUGH. THE 00Z INL SOUNDING SAMPLED A 115 KT DUE
NORTHERLY JET...HIGHLY ANOMALOUS ORIENTATION AND SPEED FOR MAY.
THE SHORT WAVE HAS BEEN ON A STEADY TRACK TOWARD THE AREA WITH ITS
LEADING EDGE PRESENTLY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHTNING HAS BEEN STEADY ALONG THIS FRONT EDGE AND
OFTEN WITH THESE COLD CORE WAVES KEEP THEIR LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT.
SO HAVE INCREASED THUNDER CHANCES AS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
/SAMPLED ON 00Z MPX SOUNDING/ MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ANTICIPATED FORCING...AS WELL AS OUTPUT
FROM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS...IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT NEAR
100 POPS BETWEEN MAINLY 11 PM AND 4 AM FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AT THE SURFACE ARE INDICATE A STRENGTHENING
ISALLOBARIC COUPLET AS THE LOW OF 1002 MB NEAR LA CROSSE
WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SOME UPSTREAM WINDS ARE ALREADY
OUTPERFORMING GUIDANCE AND WOULD EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE TO BE THE
TREND IN THIS PATTERN. HAVE INCREASED GUSTS WITH TEMPORARY 30 TO
40 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THEN 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE GIVEN THE FRICTIONLESS NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THE GUSTS SHOULD PEAK MORE 35 TO 45 MPH DURING WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
WAVES ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO OR A LITTLE OVER 10 FT ON THE
CHICAGO SHORE BY LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING AND 12 TO 15 FT ALONG
THE INDIANA SHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST IS BELOW
THRESHOLDS FOR A LAKE FLOOD ADVISORY.
AS FOR FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...THESE CONTINUE TO LOOK
TO BE ON TRACK WITH MID TO UPPER 40S HIGHS IN THE DOWNSTREAM PART
OF THE LAKE AND LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
228 PM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH OUT OF
ONTARIO. EXPECTING A PLEASANT AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WEST WINDS
AND FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY FORMED AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN. REALLY LIKING THE RAP/S
TIMING SO LEANED HEAVILY IN ITS DIRECTION...WITH THE NAM BEING A
SLOWER SOLUTION. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN FRONTAL PRECIP JUST IN CASE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS FORM THIS
EVENING. KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS IDEA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AS CAPE VALUES WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH AND GUSTING
TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE EVEN GUSTIER ALONG THE
SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKE. HIGHS ALONG THE LAKE WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MAYBE 50. THE BACK END OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES
THROUGH TOMORROW AND EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY SHALLOW CAPE...BUT ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE VERY
LOW TOPPED. FREEZING LEVELS ARE ALSO LOW AROUND 3000 FT SO THINKING
THE LOW CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO GRAUPEL INSTEAD OF
THUNDER. NOT EXPECTING A TON OF RAIN...MORE ALONG THE LINES OF
DREARY CONDITIONS WITH OCNL LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY GRAUPEL.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
259 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE UNSEASONABLE STRONG UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SHIFT OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE SOME INTO THE UPPER
30S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND PORTIONS OF THE
FOX RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. IT APPEARS THAT A
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...SO
THE THREAT OF FROST LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD ONLY BE SPOTTY AND
CONFINED TO WELL PROTECTED AREAS...SO WE WILL LEAVE THIS MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN NEAR 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
LAKEFRONT...BUT FARTHER INLAND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND BACK
INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS A WESTERLY WIND
SHIFT ALLOWS THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TO SHIFT OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING 925 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +20C BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A LAKE BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AT
THE LAKE FRONT...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS THERE IF ONE DOES DEVELOP. IN ADDITION TO THE QUICK
WARM-UP...I CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITHIN THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
WEAK SIGNAL...AND THE LIKELY LOW AREAL COVERAGE...WE HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.
A POTENT AND FAST EASTWARD MOVING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
OVER THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR OUR
NEXT DECENT THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT ADVERTISED TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE OVER THE
AREA...WE CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT LOOKING TO BE DURING THE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...IT
APPEARS HIGHS ON SATURDAY COULD AGAIN REACH INTO THE 70S IN MOST
INLAND AREAS...TO POSSIBLY LOW 80S AGAIN SOUTH PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF CONVECTION WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY...SO
DRY...BUT COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...WARMER CONDITIONS...INTO THE 70S...BEGIN TO RETURN BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT ALSO APPEARS THE THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BE
CONDUCIVE TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NEXT WEEK AS MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL ARE FORECASTING ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DROPPING INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE TERMINALS
BY AROUND 7-8Z. MOST LIGHTNING ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS BEEN FOCUSED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER
EAST...SO WILL ONLY BRING THUNDERSTORMS ON STATION AT RFD...AND
WILL JUST KEEP A VCTS MENTION FOR THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS. A
GUST FRONT HAS SURGED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...THEN BEHIND THE INITIAL
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE MAY BE SOME VARIABILITY OR
LIGHTER WINDS BEFORE THE SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHES THROUGH A FEW HOURS
LATER WITH GUSTY WINDS PICKING UP AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH THE GUST
FRONT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION IS LOW FOR THE FEW
HOURS FOLLOWING THE LINE OF PRECIP. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE IFR
CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AS THEY ARE NOT SHOWING UP YET
IN UPSTREAM OBS AND MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BETTER CONSENSUS ON MVFR
OR BETTER CONDITIONS. STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
333 PM CDT
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL SET UP NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE-WIDE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. IT
ALSO APPEARS THAT GALE FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
AND NORTHERN OHIO. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. AT THE PRESENT TIME...WE HAVE
LEFT THE ILLINOIS NEAR SHORES OUT OF THIS GALE AS IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND INTO THE
INDIANA NEAR SHORE WATERS. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE ILLINOIS WATERS. THE WINDS LOOK TO ABATE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK
END TO THE GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS LOOK TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE ON
SATURDAY...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO
10 AM THURSDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 4 AM
THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM THURSDAY TO 3
PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1203 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Will be taking a look at the pop/wx grids to clean them up a bit.
Otherwise, current forecast looks on track and has a good handle
on current situation for the remainder of the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016
A Strong shortwave associated with 100kt jet will plunge into the
eastern U.S. trough that has been over the region the past few days.
Relatively strong dynamics with this fast system will have little in
way of deep moisture to work with. An associated cold front will
move across the region after midnight bringing a chance of showers.
The lower layers of the atmosphere are relatively dry and
precipitation amounts should be less than a quarter of an inch.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Upper low forecast to dive south-southeast into the lower Great
Lakes on Wednesday with the associated cold front and shower
activity expected to be southeast of our forecast area during
the morning. However, 500 mb temperatures forecast to drop to
between -24C to -27C by afternoon over roughly the eastern half
of the forecast area. Will continue to hold onto scattered
showers for the afternoon with some thunder possible as well due
to the steep mid level lapse rates. Seeing some occasional
lightning this afternoon with the deep trof just north of Lake
Superior so will continue to hold with the thunder mention,
especially across the east where the temperatures aloft are the
coldest. The upper low should drift off to our east tomorrow night
with high pressure settling into the region for a couple of quiet
days for Thursday and Friday. After a rather cool couple of
days/nights for Wednesday and Thursday, we should see a nice
warmup for Friday and the weekend when the mercury will rise back
into the 70s, with a few 80s possible ahead of a cool front
Saturday afternoon.
The short lived omega block will begin to break down towards the
end of the week as a vigorous northern stream upper wave shifts
southeast into the upper Great Lakes by Saturday This will drive
another cold front into our area by Saturday afternoon with most
models now suggesting the trof amplifying to our east late
Saturday into Sunday will be strong enough to push the front
further south than earlier expected on Sunday. This would normally
shift the better rain chances further south as well but because a
couple of models have a further north solution to the boundary and
higher POPs, the consensus has mentionable POPs for Sunday into
early Sunday evening, although lower than what we had before,
before the boundary starts to edge back north Sunday night and
Monday resulting in 30-40 Pops CWA-wide again. If this further
south solution continues with the next several runs, we may be
able to lower POPs over most of the area on Sunday. Unfortunately,
with the evolving pattern late in the weekend and especially for
the first half of next week, it appears there will be a daily
threat for showers and thunderstorms through at least next
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Sfc front
will drop quickly through the CWA early this morning and radar
indicates thunderstorms along with showers. So have changed to
VCTS with TEMPO group at all sites for thunderstorms. Once the
pcpn moves south skies will scatter out some. However, with the
500mb trough, additional clouds and VCSH will be seen at
DEC/CMI/BMI in the afternoon. Skies will scatter out and clear
after sunset at all sites. Winds will become northwesterly just
behind the front and then northerly during the day and into the
afternoon. Wind speeds will increase and gust to 23-26kts at all
sites. Winds speeds will decrease in the evening.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Barker
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Auten
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
904 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Will be taking a look at the pop/wx grids to clean them up a bit.
Otherwise, current forecast looks on track and has a good handle
on current situation for the remainder of the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016
A Strong shortwave associated with 100kt jet will plunge into the
eastern U.S. trough that has been over the region the past few days.
Relatively strong dynamics with this fast system will have little in
way of deep moisture to work with. An associated cold front will
move across the region after midnight bringing a chance of showers.
The lower layers of the atmosphere are relatively dry and
precipitation amounts should be less than a quarter of an inch.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Upper low forecast to dive south-southeast into the lower Great
Lakes on Wednesday with the associated cold front and shower
activity expected to be southeast of our forecast area during
the morning. However, 500 mb temperatures forecast to drop to
between -24C to -27C by afternoon over roughly the eastern half
of the forecast area. Will continue to hold onto scattered
showers for the afternoon with some thunder possible as well due
to the steep mid level lapse rates. Seeing some occasional
lightning this afternoon with the deep trof just north of Lake
Superior so will continue to hold with the thunder mention,
especially across the east where the temperatures aloft are the
coldest. The upper low should drift off to our east tomorrow night
with high pressure settling into the region for a couple of quiet
days for Thursday and Friday. After a rather cool couple of
days/nights for Wednesday and Thursday, we should see a nice
warmup for Friday and the weekend when the mercury will rise back
into the 70s, with a few 80s possible ahead of a cool front
Saturday afternoon.
The short lived omega block will begin to break down towards the
end of the week as a vigorous northern stream upper wave shifts
southeast into the upper Great Lakes by Saturday This will drive
another cold front into our area by Saturday afternoon with most
models now suggesting the trof amplifying to our east late
Saturday into Sunday will be strong enough to push the front
further south than earlier expected on Sunday. This would normally
shift the better rain chances further south as well but because a
couple of models have a further north solution to the boundary and
higher POPs, the consensus has mentionable POPs for Sunday into
early Sunday evening, although lower than what we had before,
before the boundary starts to edge back north Sunday night and
Monday resulting in 30-40 Pops CWA-wide again. If this further
south solution continues with the next several runs, we may be
able to lower POPs over most of the area on Sunday. Unfortunately,
with the evolving pattern late in the weekend and especially for
the first half of next week, it appears there will be a daily
threat for showers and thunderstorms through at least next
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Skies will become scattered this evening, ahead of the next short
wave bringing pcpn to the area later tonight. Could be some
clouds, but think they will be cirrus, so no need to mention.
Believe HRRR model has a good handle on movement of the pcpn into
and through the area tonight, so followed its timing with pcpn
getting to PIA first around 05z, then SPI and BMI around 06z, then
CMI and DEC around 07z. Will have VCSH at all sites and then a
TEMPO group at for 3-4hrs where vis is lower due to showers and
slightly lower cigs. Besides the showers, VFR conditions will
prevail at all sites next 24hrs. After the pcpn, clouds will
become scattered or clear remainder of the night and early
morning. With cyclonic flow continuing tomorrow, clouds will
return and thicken, but only at DEC/CMI and BMI. In addition,
short term models indicate that more showers could be possible at
these three sites, so have included more VCSH. Winds will be
southwest ahead of the trough, but then become northwest and then
northerly tomorrow. Winds will become gusty as well.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Barker
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
220 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
CLOUDS HOLDING TOUGH THIS MORNING...BUT WITH BASES AROUND
8KFT...NOT MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SPEAK OF. STILL A FEW SHOWERS
JUST NORTH OF I-64...ASSOCIATED WITH A LEFT OVER CONVERGENCE ZONE.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING IS MAKING ITS MOVE SOUTH WITH A
DECENT LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. HAVE SEEN SOME PERSISTENT WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH.
FORTUNATELY...WITH THE FRONT BECOMING MORE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED BY
THE TIME IT GETS HERE...NOT ANTICIPATING THE WIND THREAT TO MAKE
IT INTO OUR AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...CONDITIONS STILL FAVORABLE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WITH SUCH LOW FREEZING LEVELS. IN
FACT...ALREADY NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL OVERNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1039 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
PARTIAL CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME TEMPERATURE DROP OFF IN
PLACES...HOWEVER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO MOVE BACK IN
OVERNIGHT...SO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S STILL LOOK ON TARGET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...AND THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS AT LEAST WEAK RETURNS AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE UPDATED TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DOTTING PORTION OF THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO
ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FEATURE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE APPALACHIAN REGION AS THE
BOUNDARY THAT HAD SPARKED SOME SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST. WITH STOUT LOW PRESSURE
EXITING THE AREA AND THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT.
WITH A FEW BREAKS TODAY IN THE CLOUD COVER...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DID DEVELOP AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE SOUTH. AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THE AREA TONIGHT A FEW
SHOWERS WILL POP UP AGAIN THE NORTH. THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG UNLIKELY. HEADING INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH A DECENT GRADIENT IN
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THE
FRONT...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. WILL EXPECT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT...SOME LOWER FREEZING
HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL. A COLD CORE
LOW STALLING OVERHEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER. IN
FACT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
30S. OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY...COOL...AND A FEW SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS
PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN
TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR
NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO
LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR
THE BEGINNING OF MAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING
INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT 9 TO 12 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 17Z TODAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY IN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
337 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE SPREAD STILL EXISTS AMONG THE GUIDANCE THIS MORNING AS
FORECAST LEAD TIME DIMINISHES TO ZERO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
POWERFUL LEAD WAVE DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST WITH A NEARLY
EQUIVALENTLY STRONG TRAILING WAVE OVER WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT
07Z. THE TRAILING WAVE HAS BEEN POORLY RESOLVED BY MANY MEMBERS OF
THE GUIDANCE...THE RAP APPEARING TO HANDLE IT THE BEST. EVEN SO, THE
RAPID REFRESH IS STRUGGLING TO KEEP UP WITH 3-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF
3-5MB THIS MORNING.
EXPANDING SHOWER COVERAGE IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE IS OCCURRING WITHIN
THE CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT HAS EMERGED OVER SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FOR NOW, THIS ACTIVITY IS
STRUGGLING TO PENETRATE THE CWA DUE TO ANTECEDENT DRY AIR EVIDENT ON
THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN SE
MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE COLUMN SATURATES, LARGE
SCALE FORCING INCREASES, AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION GETS UNDERWAY.
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST, THE BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY SHOWERS, IS SO FAR BEHAVING AS ANTICIPATED. ITS NARROW
STRUCTURE IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO DEEP LAYER LINEAR/CONVERGENT FORCING
ALONG THE STRONG TROUGH AXIS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN THE
PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
ENERGY CONTINUES TO FLOOD SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS
THIS OCCURS, THE BAND WILL STALL AND PIVOT IN CYCLONIC FASHION WITH
PRECIPITATION RATES INTENSIFYING AS DEFORMATION FORCING RAMPS UP
WEST OF US-23. IN ADDITION, DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LOW DENSITY CAPE PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY. SKINNY CAPE WITHIN PERSISTENT
STRONG DEFORMATION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A SOLID HALF INCH
TO THREE QUARTERS OF RAIN OVER WESTERN AREAS. A LOCALIZED AREA -
PERHAPS JUST THE FOOTPRINT OF A COUNTY OR TWO -COULD EASILY SEE OVER
AN INCH IN THIS SETUP. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
BETWEEN LIVINGSTON AND BAY COUNTIES WEST OF US-23/I-75. THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE (PWAT < 0.80") AND A VERY SHALLOW (< 5KFT) WARM
CLOUD LAYER WILL PUT A DEFINITE CEILING ON POTENTIAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SO THINGS WILL NOT GET OUT OF CONTROL.
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR EASTERN AREAS,
INCLUDING DETROIT METRO, AS THE CONVERGENT RAINFALL BAND STALLS UPON
THE MID-LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF. HOWEVER, LATEST RAP SIMULATIONS SHOW
RESPECTABLE CAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ACROSS THE EAST. WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME SUBTLE RIDGING FORCED OVER THE EASTERN CWA DURING PEAK
HEATING, BUT LOW/MID-LEVEL THETA MAY BE JUST ENOUGH IN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR DISORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS, LIKELY POPS REMAIN IN PLACE IN
SPITE OF THE WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM YESTERDAY MORNING`S FORECAST.
WARMING TREND INTO THE 60S THURSDAY AND LOW 70S FRIDAY AS RIDGING IS
FORCED THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL
CU AND POSSIBLY JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT FULL SUN AND MUCH
WARMER TEMPS ON FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TAPS INTO 850MB TEMPS
IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
MODEST NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.
SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MAY
LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF LAKE HURON DURING THIS TIME. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
BRING A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WAVE CONDITIONS ALONG THE THUMB DURING
THIS TIME. HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING TRANQUIL
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS SE MICHIGAN LATE TODAY.
THIS WILL FOCUS AN AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ALONG HIGHWAY 23
CORRIDOR...WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. DECREASING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT...LEAVING EASTERN PORTIONS OF METRO DETROIT NORTHWARD INTO
THE THUMB WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE BULK OF THIS
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1154 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
A REGION OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE EAST DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN REGION
OF RAIN MAY TRIGGER SOME BRIEF HIGH BASED LIGHT SHOWERS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN REGION OF RAIN
WILL WORK INTO MBS AND FNT JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. WITH THE UPPER
WAVE FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER NRN
INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY...THE AXIS OF STRONGER FORCING WILL STRUGGLE
TO PUSH MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN FNT AND PERHAPS PTK. INITIAL DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER GRADUAL LOWERING OF
CEILING HEIGHTS DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. SOME DEGREE OF
MVFR TYPE CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT FNT AND MBS BY AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION
WED AFTERNOON WILL DRAW A LITTLE COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO FNT AND
MBS...OFFERING A GOOD CHANCE OF LOW END MVFR AND/OR IFR CIGS LATE
WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. A PERSISTENT INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
FARTHER EAST MAY IN FACT LEAD TO A RATHER NARROW REGION BETWEEN
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND VFR CONDITIONS.
FOR DTW...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THE SCATTERED HIGH
BASED SHOWERS WILL IMPACT METRO DETROIT DURING AT LEAST THE FIRST
TWO TO FOUR HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...RECENT MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR GETTING ADVECTED INTO METRO DETROIT FROM
THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
MAY HOLD THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS WEST OF METRO
AIRPORT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING. MEDIUM THIS
AFTERNOON.
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......MR
HYDROLOGY....MR
AVIATION.....SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
135 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE RODCKIES NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN CANADA RESULTING IN
NNW FLOW FROM MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALEY AND WRN LAKES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NW LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LOW PRES JUST
WEST OF JAMES BAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ASSOCIATED 800-600 MB FGEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF UPPER MI. SOME ISOLD
TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR CYQT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS STRONGEST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FGEN AREA SLIDES TO THE SE AND THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. SOME ISOLD TSRA WILL ALSO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT. CAA WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS.
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LATE TONIGHT WHERE NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IS STRONGEST OVER THE N CNTRL UPPER MI. AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROP AFTER 06Z...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. WITH LOWS
ONLY TO AROUND 34...ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
GRASSY SURFACES.
WEDNESDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO IN/OH
KEEPING COLD NRLY FLOW GOING INTO UPPER MI. EXPECT ENOUGH DEEP
MOISTURE TO LINGER WITH SATURATION NEAR -8C TO -10C LAYER TO
MINIMIZE DZ CHANCES. SO...UPSLOPE SOME SN/RA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI IN THE MORNING WITH POTENTIAL TO TRANSITION TO
SOME DZ BY AFTERNOON AS THE 850-600 MOISTURE DEPARTS. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO 50
SOUTH EVEN AS SUNSHINE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY GIVES WAY TO RISING
HEIGHTS THU INTO FRI AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST. SFC
HIGH MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH DRY WEATHER. BLO FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY OVER INTERIOR WEST BENEATH RIDGE AXIS ON WED NIGHT.
ONCE THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST...WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES
WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AWAY FM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH READINGS INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT
WINDS LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING AND H85 TEMPS 14-
16C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
DESPITE THE WARMTH...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS SFC-
H85 DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE SO MIN RH SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THU
AND LIKE THU THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRASHES THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED
WITH THE FROPA. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF TSRA WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /H7-H5 LAPSE RATES CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE
AT 6.5C/KM AND MUCAPE UP TO 250 J/KG/...BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DO NOT EXPECT
STRONG TSRA. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BUT
MOSTLY DRY. GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20
MPH INLAND. IF WATER TEMPS WERE WARMER ON LK SUPERIOR SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED SWIM RISK. CURRENT WATER TEMPS AROUND 40 IN
THE NEARSHORE SO NOT AN ISSUE QUITE YET.
WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF EXTENDED /DAYTIME HIGHS 60S AND MAYBE
SLIGHTLY WARMER/ AS UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER GREAT LAKES.
DIFFERENCES ARISE MON INTO TUE ON HOW QUICK UPPER TROUGH BRINGS SFC
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS QUICKEST WHILE GEM
IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE.
REGARDLESS...WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TOO HIGH IMPACT AS EVEN WITH
GFS IDEA BULK OF HIGHER INSTABILITY BOTH SFC AND ELEVATED REMAINS
TOO FAR SW TO BRING ANY STRONGER TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS UPR MICHIGAN.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TUE SHOWS MORE CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ATTM...BUT IF THE SLOWER IDEA WORKS OUT...DRY WEATHER WOULD HOLD
UNTIL LATE TUE AND TUE WOULD BECOME MORE OF A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE
WITH TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
COLDER AIR AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT KCMX AND KSAW...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF HIGH-END MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS
ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBY. KIWD WILL BE FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WED AFTERNOON AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS
OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
147 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LINGER AROUND
THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW INTO PA PERSISTS BETWEEN COASTAL CAROLINA SFC
LOW AND SOUTHEAST CANADA SFC HIGH CIRCULATIONS. UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
AXES CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER PA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND
NRN GLAKS UPPER LOW. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A DAMP EVENING
THROUGHOUT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLIER
THIS EVENING...AND AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE AND SPRITZY
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
ANOTHER UPPER SHEAR AXIS SLOWLY SWINGING INTO THE EASTERN GLAKS
AND WESTERN PA WILL KEEP SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS GOING OVERNIGHT BUT
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. HRRR KEEPS MOST
NUMEROUS AND PERSISTENT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN EXCESS OF 0.8"...AND DEEPER MARINE
FLOW PERSISTS. LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AND EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DZ CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER OH VLY AND
KEEP IT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS ON WED REFLECT THE
NORMAL OUTCOME OF AN UPPER LOW OVER OH/WV. SCT SHRA...WITH THE
HIGHER /LOW LIKELY/ POPS SLIDE FROM E-W AS THE MORE DRIZZLY STUFF
IS JOINED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WRN MTNS. MAXES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5-10F UNDER NORMALS DUE TO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR A LARGE TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S.
TO BECOME DOMINATED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND CURLING EASTWARD TO BE LOCATED OVER E NORTH
CAROLINA BY THU EVE AND DELMARVA ON FRI. SHOWERY PATTERN IN STORE
FOR SURE OVER THIS PERIOD...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ON THU LOCATED
OVER W PA /CLOSER TO UPPER LOW/ WITH PRECIP SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
FRI AS IT CONSOLIDATES NEAR SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A MODEST SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SEWD LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY UNWINDS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
BRINGING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR SUN/MON BEFORE WHAT LOOKS LIKE
COULD BE A PRETTY DECENT WARMUP AS RIDGING FINALLY ARRIVES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AT UNV EARLIER...BUT CENTRAL AREAS NOT BAD
NOW. STILL SOME RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EAST...MAINLY SE. SKIES CLEAR
TO THE WEST AT SITES LIKE JST...BUT BFD HAS DENSE FOG.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND THE COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST...BUT EASTERN AREAS MAY STAY IFR AND MVFR FOR MOST OF
THE DAY.
SHOWERS AND RAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WED NIGHT.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE 06Z TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:42 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE
CLOUD CITY THIS MORNING WITH LOW STRATUS NEAR THE COAST AND
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF THE INCOMING UPPER LOW. RADAR SHOWING A FEW HIGH RETURNS
OFFSHORE AND OVER THE NORTH BAY...LIKELY VIRGA OR A FEW SPITS OF
LIGHT RAIN. LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE NORTH BAY AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER. MAIN THEME FOR TODAY WILL BE
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION AND THEN DROP WEST OF
THE CENTRAL COAST ON THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE LIGHT SO NO STRONG
WINDS OF NOTE. CONTINUED CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN MOST SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND
DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE MANY AREAS WILL NOT SEE RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY. IN FACT LATEST 06Z NAM SHOWS MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS
WHEN WE`LL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED T-STORMS AS WELL.
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT STAYS OFFSHORE SO
LOOKS LIKE WE WONT SEE THE BEST INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY AND IF THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THAT WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY AS
WELL.
AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS TOWARDS PT CONCEPTION ON FRIDAY MORNING
THE MODELS ARE PAINTING MORE STRATIFORM BUT LIGHT TYPE PRECIP
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BAY AREA
SOUTHWARD. GIVEN THE SUBTLE RUN TO RUN CHANGES IT REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE RAIN WILL FALL WITH MANY
LOCATIONS LIKELY REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER FRIDAY
IS LOOKING LIKE THE DAY THAT MAY NEED THE HIGHEST POPS.
06Z NAM AND GFS RUNS SHOW ANOTHER DEFORMATION BAND ROTATING FROM
THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE TOWARDS THE BAY AREA ON SATURDAY
KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE BELOW
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S. SO WE HAVE LEGITIMATE BUT LOW END
PRECIP CHANCES THE NEXT FOUR DAYS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN
TOTALS BY SATURDAY COULD EXCEED 0.50 IN SOME OF THE WETTER SPOTS
BUT ON AVERAGE TOTALS SHOULD BE MORE AROUND A TENTH OR TWO.
SHOWER THREAT SHOULD FINALLY END BY SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:34 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...TOUGH AND LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST
CREEPS EASTWARD. THE TROUGH IS BRINGING A MIXED BAG OF CIGS THIS
MORNING WITH VCSH PASSING THROUGH. CIGS RANGE FROM IFR TO VFR AND
ARE VERY TRANSIENT. DO EXPECT ANY CIGS THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY
LIFT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL KEEP VCSH FOR THE TAFS GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY. CIGS RETURN TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH THIS MORNING. BETTER
CHC FOR CIGS OVER THE EAST BAY-KOAK. COVERING SOME PATCHY CIGS AT
KSFO WITH A TEMP THIS MORNING. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
LIFTING. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCSH.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 03:20 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO COLD UNSTABLE
AIR. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
439 AM PDT WED MAY 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS....CLOUDY AND COOL TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND
PRODUCES SOME NORTH BAY SHOWERS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALONG WITH A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
UPPER LOW WOBBLES AROUND THE CENTRAL COAST. SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AND LIKELY SATURDAY AS
THE SLOW MOVING LOW IMPACTS THE STATE WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DRYING AND WARMING TREND STARTS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:42 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUD
CITY THIS MORNING WITH LOW STRATUS NEAR THE COAST AND PLENTY OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
INCOMING UPPER LOW. RADAR SHOWING A FEW HIGH RETURNS OFFSHORE AND
OVER THE NORTH BAY...LIKELY VIRGA OR A FEW SPITS OF LIGHT RAIN.
LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS
TODAY WILL BE OVER THE NORTH BAY AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW GETS CLOSER. MAIN THEME FOR TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION AND THEN DROP WEST OF
THE CENTRAL COAST ON THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE LIGHT SO NO STRONG
WINDS OF NOTE. CONTINUED CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN MOST SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND
DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE MANY AREAS WILL NOT SEE RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY. IN FACT LATEST 06Z NAM SHOWS MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS
WHEN WE`LL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED T-STORMS AS WELL.
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT STAYS OFFSHORE SO
LOOKS LIKE WE WONT SEE THE BEST INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY AND IF THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THAT WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY AS
WELL.
AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS TOWARDS PT CONCEPTION ON FRIDAY MORNING THE
MODELS ARE PAINTING MORE STRATIFORM BUT LIGHT TYPE PRECIP
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BAY AREA
SOUTHWARD. GIVEN THE SUBTLE RUN TO RUN CHANGES IT REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE RAIN WILL FALL WITH MANY
LOCATIONS LIKELY REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER FRIDAY
IS LOOKING LIKE THE DAY THAT MAY NEED THE HIGHEST POPS.
06Z NAM AND GFS RUNS SHOW ANOTHER DEFORMATION BAND ROTATING FROM
THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE TOWARDS THE BAY AREA ON SATURDAY
KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE BELOW
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S. SO WE HAVE LEGITIMATE BUT LOW END
PRECIP CHANCES THE NEXT FOUR DAYS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN
TOTALS BY SATURDAY COULD EXCEED 0.50 IN SOME OF THE WETTER SPOTS
BUT ON AVERAGE TOTALS SHOULD BE MORE AROUND A TENTH OR TWO.
SHOWER THREAT SHOULD FINALLY END BY SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:34 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...TOUGH AND LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST
CREEPS EASTWARD. THE TROUGH IS BRINGING A MIXED BAG OF CIGS THIS
MORNING WITH VCSH PASSING THROUGH. CIGS RANGE FROM IFR TO VFR AND
ARE VERY TRANSIENT. DO EXPECT ANY CIGS THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY
LIFT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL KEEP VCSH FOR THE TAFS GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY. CIGS RETURN TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH THIS MORNING. BETTER
CHC FOR CIGS OVER THE EAST BAY-KOAK. COVERING SOME PATCHY CIGS AT
KSFO WITH A TEMP THIS MORNING. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
LIFTING. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCSH.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 03:20 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO COLD UNSTABLE
AIR. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
343 AM PDT WED MAY 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS....CLOUDY AND COOL TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND
PRODUCES SOME NORTH BAY SHOWERS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALONG WITH A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
UPPER LOW WOBBLES AROUND THE CENTRAL COAST. SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AND LIKELY SATURDAY AS
THE SLOW MOVING LOW IMPACTS THE STATE WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DRYING AND WARMING TREND STARTS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:42 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUD
CITY THIS MORNING WITH LOW STRATUS NEAR THE COAST AND PLENTY OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
INCOMING UPPER LOW. RADAR SHOWING A FEW HIGH RETURNS OFFSHORE AND
OVER THE NORTH BAY...LIKELY VIRGA OR A FEW SPITS OF LIGHT RAIN.
LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS
TODAY WILL BE OVER THE NORTH BAY AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW GETS CLOSER. MAIN THEME FOR TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION AND THEN DROP WEST OF
THE CENTRAL COAST ON THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE LIGHT SO NO STRONG
WINDS OF NOTE. CONTINUED CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN MOST SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND
DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE MANY AREAS WILL NOT SEE RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY. IN FACT LATEST 06Z NAM SHOWS MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS
WHEN WE`LL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED T-STORMS AS WELL.
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT STAYS OFFSHORE SO
LOOKS LIKE WE WONT SEE THE BEST INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY AND IF THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THAT WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY AS
WELL.
AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS TOWARDS PT CONCEPTION ON FRIDAY MORNING THE
MODELS ARE PAINTING MORE STRATIFORM BUT LIGHT TYPE PRECIP
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BAY AREA
SOUTHWARD. GIVEN THE SUBTLE RUN TO RUN CHANGES IT REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE RAIN WILL FALL WITH MANY
LOCATIONS LIKELY REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER FRIDAY
IS LOOKING LIKE THE DAY THAT MAY NEED THE HIGHEST POPS.
06Z NAM AND GFS RUNS SHOW ANOTHER DEFORMATION BAND ROTATING FROM
THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE TOWARDS THE BAY AREA ON SATURDAY
KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE BELOW
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S. SO WE HAVE LEGITIMATE BUT LOW END
PRECIP CHANCES THE NEXT FOUR DAYS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN
TOTALS BY SATURDAY COULD EXCEED 0.50 IN SOME OF THE WETTER SPOTS
BUT ON AVERAGE TOTALS SHOULD BE MORE AROUND A TENTH OR TWO.
SHOWER THREAT SHOULD FINALLY END BY SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:54 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE SOUTHERN END OF AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND BECOME A CLOSED LOW WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE
SHOWS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS MOSTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHILE
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN OFF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. MARINE LAYER INVERSIONS ARE LIKELY TO STEADILY DEEPEN AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS DEEP LAYERED COOLING TAKES PLACE
IN THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO THE APPROACHING EPAC TROUGH.
THE WINDS FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD. CIGS FORECAST LOW
TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. VICINITY SHOWERS AFTER 17Z WEDNESDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THIS EVENING.
LOW CONFIDENCE IFR CIGS FORECAST TONIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING RETURNS
BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. VICINITY SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 03:20 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO COLD UNSTABLE
AIR. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT MID
MORNING WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT ADVECTS TO THE NORTH. IT
SHOULD IMPACT THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE
BALANCE OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE OVERALL TREND WELL.
OTHERWISE, LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH FOG
IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN
THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES BUT A
CONTD MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF
MEASURABLE DRIZZLE AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS.
50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM GUIDANCE. WE SEE THE SPC WRF DRIES US
OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT SO POPS ARE GENERALLY 60 PCT N AND 30-40
PCT SOUTH. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE MAY BE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
NE WIND GUSTY NEAR 15 MPH... EXPECT 20-25 MPH MONMOUTH COUNTY
COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN OMEGA BLOCK, THEN THIS
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN SOME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEEKS AGO THERE
WAS AN OMEGA BLOCK IN PLACE, HOWEVER AT THAT TIME WE WERE UNDER
THE RIDGE. THIS GO AROUND WE ARE UNDER THE TROUGH PART OF THE
BLOCK, KEEPING OUR WEATHER COOLER AND UNSETTLED. THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE UNSETTLED WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE
WEEKEND, THEN A MORE NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WE USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY. SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TRACKING NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGE
TROUGH WILL TEAM UP WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A MARINE LAYER AND
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER COULD ALSO START
WITH SOME DRIZZLE. THE ENTIRE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST FRIDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW
ITSELF MOVING OVER OUR CWA DURING FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NORTHWARD ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO
NOT DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY. AS THIS OCCURS, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO NEAR -24C ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD PROMOTE
SOME INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION, HOWEVER
CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY TEMPER THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FRIDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THEN THIS PIVOTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH ALSO
DRIVES A BAND OF STRONGER 700-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
OVERALL, THERE LOOKS LIKE DECENT LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE EASTERLY
JET TO PROMOTE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN THAT PIVOTS INLAND DURING
FRIDAY. WE MAY NOT SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, BUT IF THERE ARE
THEN ANY LOW- TOPPED CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE
VERY COLD 500 MB TEMPERATURES. AS OF NOW HOWEVER, ANY INSTABILITY
LOOKS MEAGER. THE SYSTEM THEM MEANDERS OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WHILE THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER COVERAGE SOME
SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL SLOWING TREND
IN THE GUIDANCE WHEN COMPARING THE MANY MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THIS
TENDS TO HAPPEN WITH BLOCKING PATTERNS AS IT TAKES LONGER FOR THE
CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF
DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES INCLUDING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN. WE THEREFORE
LEANED CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE BUT ALSO INCORPORATING SOME
CONTINUITY. THIS MEANS THAT SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE STILL UNSETTLED
WITH SOME SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND. THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON THE SHORT WAVE FORCING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW, HOWEVER PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OPEN UP AND START SHIFTING
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH
SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA MOSTLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME
SHOWERS. THE AIR ALOFT MODIFIES SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THEREFORE MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WE TRANSITION OUT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME
GUIDANCE HOWEVER HAS A SHORT WAVE AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH TIME, HOWEVER ENERGY IN THE PLAINS WILL SEND A DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA TUESDAY. WE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY ATTM WITH MUCH WARMER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN PERIODS OF
SHOWERS. TIMING OF THE RAIN MAINLY LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE PER NAM/GFS INSTABILITY ALOFT,
MAINLY DELMARVA OR SE PA/S NJ. NE WIND WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT
VCNTY KPHL/KACY.
TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OR ENDING-EXITING NEWD EARLY/PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG IN THE
WAKE OF THE NEWD SHOWER DEPARTURE. POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS. NE WIND G
15-20 KT POSSIBLE KPHL- KTTN- KACY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PERSIST WITH AN ONSHORE
FLOW AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. TIMES OF SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AS WELL WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE /LESS AT
NIGHT/ WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TO START
SATURDAY, THEN IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA WITH WIND NNJ AND SCA SNJ.
DID NOT ATTM ADD SCA FOR DE COAST SINCE 44009 ON THE OUTER EDGE
OF 455 IS MARGINALLY 5 FT. HOWEVER, AM NOW ANTICIPATING WE`LL NEED
AN SCA IN THE DE ATLC WATERS FOR LATER TONIGHT.
SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR
A TIME THURSDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING FRIDAY WITH A
POSSIBLE 25-30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY SURGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD FRIDAY. THE SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 4-6 FEET MOSTLY FOR THE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS, AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN, AND SEAS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING WITH
THE WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT LATE SATURDAY THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER IT APPEARS
THAT SPEEDS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SEAS SHOULD ALSO BE
DROPPING BELOW 5 FEET WITH SOME HELP ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE FLOW
INCREASING FROM OFFSHORE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CF ADVISORY ISSUED. GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS OF INCREASED POSITIVE
DEPARTURES COMBINED WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL EVENING TIDES,
LOWERING PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING ONSHORE WIND FAVORED AN
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. IT WILL BE MARGINAL...PROBABLY PLUS OR MINUS .2
FT FROM THRESHOLD.
THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY NEAR LEWES WAS .3FT HIGHER
THAN LAST EVENINGS. THAT UPWARD DEPARTURE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THE NEXT SEVERAL CYCLES.
THE LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH A DAILY
INCREASE IN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MINOR EVENING COASTAL FLOODING.
ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD/SHOULD BE SOME MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING,
THURSDAY EVENING, AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR NOW, ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NJ/DE COASTS AND
DELAWARE BAY FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD
FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ452-453.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1002 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CUTS TO EARLY AFTERNOON POPS FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE. LATEST HRRR AND RAP...SUPPORTED BY WATER VAPOR
AND RADAR MOSAIC...INDICATE A PERIOD OF PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
IN THE WAKE OF PASSING COLD FRONT. PIVOTING DEFORMATION AXIS
APPEARS TO REMAIN OVER MICHIGAN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...AT WHICH
POINT IT WILL SWING SOUTHEAST AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE.
ALSO REMOVED THUNDER MENTION. WOULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE IN OUR FAR EAST BUT NOTHING OBSERVED SO FAR AND
COLDER AIR IS PUSHING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT...FURTHER
LIMITING ALREADY PALTRY INSTABILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE
BASE OF THE TROF. THIS IS COMBINING WITH STRONG MASS CONVERGENCE
ALONG ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO GENERATE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TONIGHT. UPPER TROF WILL DIG SOUTH AND CLOSE OFF OVER
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY TODAY...BRINGING 100M HEIGHT FALLS
AND -26C COLD POOL OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT NON-DIURNAL EARLY MORNING HIGH TEMP
IN WESTERN CWA WITH ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING
AND STRONG CAA ON GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL HAVE TEMPS
STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE DAY. PRECIP LINGERS INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW WITH UPPER
LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS INFLUENCE
OF UPPER LOW WANES AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC. RIDGING...SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
AND LEAD TO GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS TEMPS
WARM BACK INTO THE 70S. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS DETACHED TO THE NORTH AND
LOW LEVEL FORCING WEAKENS AS FRONT TAKES ON EAST/WEST ORIENTATION
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. FRONT WILL ALSO BE LACKING IN MOISTURE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER GULF OF MEXICO.
THEREFORE LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP DEVELOPING AND WILL CUT POPS
FROM SUPERBLEND TO SMALL CHANCE. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO UPPER LOW
THAT WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY. DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING RESULTING FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE OUR AREA DRY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OFFERING VARYING SOLNS HANDLING
UPPER LOW BUT AGREEMENT CAN BE FOUND WITH A SLOWER TREND FOR
BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN
SUPERBLEND POPS AS WELL WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS. VERY
LIMITED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. HAVE
KEPT THUNDER OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM IS
POSSIBLE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE AREA LATER
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS IFR OR LOW
MVFR/CIGS 008 TO 012.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-
046.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AGD
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER/AGD
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...SKIPPER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
709 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
.AVIATION...
STEADY STREAM OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUSTAIN POCKETS OF SHOWERS
WITHIN A HIGH BASED CLOUD THIS MORNING. SE MICHIGAN EXPECTED RESIDE
ALONG THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.
MBS/FNT REMAIN MORE FAVORABLY POSITIONED TO SEE A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
REDUCTION IN CONDITIONS INTO MVFR...PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR AT MBS.
OVERALL TIMING A TOUCH SLOWER NOW...BUT WILL HOLD WITH THIS GENERAL
TIMING. LESS CERTAINTY FROM PTK SOUTHWARD...BUT WITH GROWING
CONFIDENCE THAT PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN VFR AS SHOWERS
FILL IN. A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT EMBEDDED
THUNDER...UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TIMING AND COVERAGE PRECLUDING A
DEFINED MENTION.
FOR DTW...MINIMALLY IMPACTFUL LIGHT SHOWERS IN CEILINGS ABOVE 5000
FT FOR THE MORNING PERIOD. METRO WILL THEN RESIDE AT THE EASTERN
EDGE OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION /AND POSSIBLE THUNDER/ EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. EXISTING DRY LOW LEVEL ENVIRNMENT
MAY PROVE A FORMIDABLE LIMITING FACTOR IN GREATER DEVELOPMENT
LOCALLY. THIS CONTINUES TO LEND SUPPORT TOWARD A MORE OPTIMISTIC
OUTLOOK ON CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS DURING THIS TIME.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT PRIOR TO 20Z...MEDIUM FROM
MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE SPREAD STILL EXISTS AMONG THE GUIDANCE THIS MORNING AS
FORECAST LEAD TIME DIMINISHES TO ZERO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
POWERFUL LEAD WAVE DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST WITH A NEARLY
EQUIVALENTLY STRONG TRAILING WAVE OVER WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT
07Z. THE TRAILING WAVE HAS BEEN POORLY RESOLVED BY MANY MEMBERS OF
THE GUIDANCE...THE RAP APPEARING TO HANDLE IT THE BEST. EVEN SO, THE
RAPID REFRESH IS STRUGGLING TO KEEP UP WITH 3-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF
3-5MB THIS MORNING.
EXPANDING SHOWER COVERAGE IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE IS OCCURRING WITHIN
THE CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT HAS EMERGED OVER SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FOR NOW, THIS ACTIVITY IS
STRUGGLING TO PENETRATE THE CWA DUE TO ANTECEDENT DRY AIR EVIDENT ON
THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN SE
MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE COLUMN SATURATES, LARGE
SCALE FORCING INCREASES, AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION GETS UNDERWAY.
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST, THE BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY SHOWERS, IS SO FAR BEHAVING AS ANTICIPATED. ITS NARROW
STRUCTURE IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO DEEP LAYER LINEAR/CONVERGENT FORCING
ALONG THE STRONG TROUGH AXIS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN THE
PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
ENERGY CONTINUES TO FLOOD SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS
THIS OCCURS, THE BAND WILL STALL AND PIVOT IN CYCLONIC FASHION WITH
PRECIPITATION RATES INTENSIFYING AS DEFORMATION FORCING RAMPS UP
WEST OF US-23. IN ADDITION, DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LOW DENSITY CAPE PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY. SKINNY CAPE WITHIN PERSISTENT
STRONG DEFORMATION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A SOLID HALF INCH
TO THREE QUARTERS OF RAIN OVER WESTERN AREAS. A LOCALIZED AREA -
PERHAPS JUST THE FOOTPRINT OF A COUNTY OR TWO -COULD EASILY SEE OVER
AN INCH IN THIS SETUP. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
BETWEEN LIVINGSTON AND BAY COUNTIES WEST OF US-23/I-75. THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE (PWAT < 0.80") AND A VERY SHALLOW (< 5KFT) WARM
CLOUD LAYER WILL PUT A DEFINITE CEILING ON POTENTIAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SO THINGS WILL NOT GET OUT OF CONTROL.
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR EASTERN AREAS,
INCLUDING DETROIT METRO, AS THE CONVERGENT RAINFALL BAND STALLS UPON
THE MID-LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF. HOWEVER, LATEST RAP SIMULATIONS SHOW
RESPECTABLE CAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ACROSS THE EAST. WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME SUBTLE RIDGING FORCED OVER THE EASTERN CWA DURING PEAK
HEATING, BUT LOW/MID-LEVEL THETA MAY BE JUST ENOUGH IN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR DISORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS, LIKELY POPS REMAIN IN PLACE IN
SPITE OF THE WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM YESTERDAY MORNING`S FORECAST.
WARMING TREND INTO THE 60S THURSDAY AND LOW 70S FRIDAY AS RIDGING IS
FORCED THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL
CU AND POSSIBLY JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT FULL SUN AND MUCH
WARMER TEMPS ON FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TAPS INTO 850MB TEMPS
IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS BY AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
MODEST NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.
SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MAY
LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF LAKE HURON DURING THIS TIME. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
BRING A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WAVE CONDITIONS ALONG THE THUMB DURING
THIS TIME. HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING TRANQUIL
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY...
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS SE MICHIGAN LATE TODAY.
THIS WILL FOCUS AN AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ALONG HIGHWAY 23
CORRIDOR...WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. DECREASING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT...LEAVING EASTERN PORTIONS OF METRO DETROIT NORTHWARD INTO
THE THUMB WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE BULK OF THIS
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......MR
HYDROLOGY....MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
402 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
RIDGE FROM HE ROCKIES INTO SASK AND A TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH
ERN UPPER MI TO INDIANA. AT THE SFC...GUSTY NORTH WINDS PREVAILED
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI BETWEEN 1001 MB LOW PRES OVER SRN
LOWER MI AND A RIDGE FROM NW ONTARIO INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. VIS
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED THINNING CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI AS THE 900-700
MB MOISTURE THINS OUT WITH DAYTIME MIXING AND THE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA.
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE CLEARING TREND HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER THAN
FCST...EXPECT THAT BTWN 21Z-24Z MOST OF THE REMAINING CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER THE WEST
WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE WITH MIN READINGS IN THE MID 20S OVER THE
INTERIOR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
THURSDAY...MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING INTO THE WRN LAKES WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER WEATHER. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND. THE WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT KEEPING MAX READINGS IN THE 50S NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY
FRI...ALLOWING UPPER RIDGE AND SFC WARM FRONT TO BRING WARM
SUMMERLIKE TEMPS BRIEFLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRI AFTN. INITIAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON EDGE OF STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES UP TO 8C/KM
COULD TRIGGER ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER MAINLY LK SUPERIOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING WHERE STRONGEST H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION LINKS UP WITH
SUFFICIENT H85-H7 MOISTURE. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN...EXPECT
SCT MID CLOUDS TO START THE DAY FRI...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN
WITH H85 TEMPS TO +16 SUPPORTS GOING FORECAST OF 70S EAST DOWNSTREAM
OF LK MICHIGAN TO MID-UPR 80S WEST IN THE AFTN. DWPNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S...SO RH VALUES DROP TO 20-25 PCT IN THE AFTN. SW-S
WINDS LOOKS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EARLIER MODEL FORECASTS SHOWED BUT
STILL GUSTS PEAKING AT 20 MPH WILL KEEP AREA BLO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP EYE ON IN TERMS OF IF
STRONGER TREND IN WINDS CONTINUES. NAM/GFS TRY TO SHOW POCKET OF
DWPNTS FM LOW-MID 50S AND THUS GENERATE SBCAPE OVER 1000J/KG OVER
CNTRL CWA FRI AFTN AND SHOW SOME CONVECTION. COULD MAYBE SEE DWPNTS
UP TO 50 LOCALLY MAINLY NEAR WI BORDER SOUTH CNTRL. OVERALL PATTERN
WITH LOWERING H85-H7 RH FAVORS DEEPER MIXING AND LOWER DWPNTS...SO
WILL KEEP FRI AFTN WARM BUT WITH NO CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
WARMTH WILL BE BRIEF AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO
PUSHES SFC-H85 COLD FRONT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATE EVENING NORTHWEST
TO OVERNIGHT SCNTRL. EVEN THOUGH STRONGER PVA STAYS NORTH CLOSER TO
TRACK OF MAIN SHORTWAVE ACROSS ONTARIO...DIFFLUENT H5-H3 FLOW AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT FAVORS BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSRA WITH CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM. AS
FOR STRENGTH OF TSRA...UNLESS FRONT ARRIVES 00Z-03Z INSTEAD OF MORE
03Z-06Z...LIKELY LOOKING AT ELEVATED STORMS. ELEVATED MUCAPE
FORECASTS VARY WITH NAM SHOWING UP TO 2000J/KG AT 00Z SAT MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN WI WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE MAINLY 500J/KG OR LESS. ECMWF
KEEPS MOST INSTABILITY FARTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST OF CWA FRI NIGHT. MEAN
FLOW IS WNW SO IF ECMWF IS CORRECT...MOST OF TSRA WOULD REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF CWA. IF MODELS WITH MORE BULLISH INSTABILITY FARTHER
EAST ARE CORRECT...THERE IS ENOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO RESULT IN
STRONGER STORMS. SPC HAS MOST OF CWA WITHIN GENERAL TSRA RISK FRI
AND FRI NIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH MAIN HINDRANCE THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY. ATTM LOOKS LIKE TOTAL RAINFALL FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT WILL BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS...SIMILAR TO
FROPA THAT JUST OCCURRED TUE AFTN INTO THIS MORNING.
TURNING BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL NOT BE
A COOL AS TODAY BUT THE COOLING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COMPARED TO THE
SUMMERTIME WARMTH ON FRI...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. SHOULD DRY
OUT WITH RH VALUES DOWN TO 25-30 PCT SAT AFTN. IF SHOWERS AND TSRA
ARE MORE SPOTTY ON FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN MINIMAL RAIN...THE
STRONGER WINDS AND LOW RH WOULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
ON SAT AFTN OVER INTERIOR WEST AS TEMPS STILL REACH INTO THE 60S.
RE-INFORCING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO MEAN TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND
POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
ISOLD-SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER EAST HALF.
A BIT QUICKER TREND IN MODELS SUGGESTS SHRA/TSRA COULD MOVE OVER
KEWEENAW AS EARLY AS MID-LATE SAT AFTN. OTHERWISE...REST OF LONG
TERM SUN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS GENERALLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN THERE IN CASE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TUE AND/OR WED.
LATEST ECMWF WOULD POINT TO AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH 60S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN VCNTY RESULTS IN LAKE BREEZES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND A MID-LEVEL LOW PASSING TO THE EAST WILL
KEEP MVFR CIGS GOING AT KCMX AND KSAW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES SKC AFTER 00Z. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO
25 KNOTS TODAY AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KNOTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN WESTERLY UNDER 20
KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
141 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW WERE SPINNING OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY EXIT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME SEVERAL BAND OF SHOWERS WERE SPIRALLING AROUND
THESE LOWS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MI. THERE WERE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TOO. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOW A
DECREASE TOWARD 00Z AS BOTH THE LOWS SPIN AWAY AND INSTABILITY
DECREASES. WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AROUND THIS LOW EARLY...10
TO 15 KTS AND THE DIRECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE LOW
PASSING CLOSE TO THE DETROIT AREA TAFS. ALSO EXPECT SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE SHOWERS.
SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING BUT BY 03Z ALL TAF SITES
WILL BE DRY. CEILINGS FROM 4000 TO 6000 FEET EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. SOME SUGGESTION OF STRATUS WITH RECENT RAINS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES AND HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. THURSDAY WILL HAVE MORE
DRYING WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS AND A NORTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS.
FOR DTW...THUNDER THREAT HAS ALREADY ROTATED NORTH AND EAST OF DTW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. STILL BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND CEILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER 02Z SHOWERS
END AND CEILINGS IMPROVE TO 4000 TO 6000 FEET AND BECOME SCATTERED
BY DAYBREAK.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 THROUGH 05Z.
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH 21Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1236 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER ENERGY IS STARTING TO CLOSE
OFF OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AS PREDICTED BY NWP SUITE. THIS SHOULD
PIVOT THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT WAS
OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING MORE INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN AS CYCLONIC FLOW INCREASES AROUND THE SYSTEM AND THE
DEFORMATION BAND TAKES ON A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATION. THIS IS ALREADY STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE PER LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY. BAND OF HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH
ROUGHLY FROM THE SAGINAW VALLEY DOWN THROUGH THE DETROIT AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER
WORKS SOUTHWARD. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO PRECIPITATION
PLACEMENT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST RUNS OF HIGHER-RES
MODELS (HRRR...NAM12...NMM)...WITH HIGHEST POPS AND QPF SHIFTED
VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. BIGGEST CHANGES WERE IN THE
FORM OF HIGHER POPS OVER LENAWEE COUNTY...LOWER POPS OVER THE
THUMB...AND A MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING TREND OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT.
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WARMING OCCURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING IN THE
LOW LEVELS AND THE UPPER LEVELS COOL IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
MU CAPE PER LATEST SPC ANALYSIS. STILL NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE SPREAD STILL EXISTS AMONG THE GUIDANCE THIS MORNING AS
FORECAST LEAD TIME DIMINISHES TO ZERO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
POWERFUL LEAD WAVE DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST WITH A NEARLY
EQUIVALENTLY STRONG TRAILING WAVE OVER WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT
07Z. THE TRAILING WAVE HAS BEEN POORLY RESOLVED BY MANY MEMBERS OF
THE GUIDANCE...THE RAP APPEARING TO HANDLE IT THE BEST. EVEN SO, THE
RAPID REFRESH IS STRUGGLING TO KEEP UP WITH 3-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF
3-5MB THIS MORNING.
EXPANDING SHOWER COVERAGE IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE IS OCCURRING WITHIN
THE CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT HAS EMERGED OVER SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FOR NOW, THIS ACTIVITY IS
STRUGGLING TO PENETRATE THE CWA DUE TO ANTECEDENT DRY AIR EVIDENT ON
THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN SE
MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE COLUMN SATURATES, LARGE
SCALE FORCING INCREASES, AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION GETS UNDERWAY.
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST, THE BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY SHOWERS, IS SO FAR BEHAVING AS ANTICIPATED. ITS NARROW
STRUCTURE IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO DEEP LAYER LINEAR/CONVERGENT FORCING
ALONG THE STRONG TROUGH AXIS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN THE
PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
ENERGY CONTINUES TO FLOOD SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS
THIS OCCURS, THE BAND WILL STALL AND PIVOT IN CYCLONIC FASHION WITH
PRECIPITATION RATES INTENSIFYING AS DEFORMATION FORCING RAMPS UP
WEST OF US-23. IN ADDITION, DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LOW DENSITY CAPE PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY. SKINNY CAPE WITHIN PERSISTENT
STRONG DEFORMATION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A SOLID HALF INCH
TO THREE QUARTERS OF RAIN OVER WESTERN AREAS. A LOCALIZED AREA -
PERHAPS JUST THE FOOTPRINT OF A COUNTY OR TWO -COULD EASILY SEE OVER
AN INCH IN THIS SETUP. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
BETWEEN LIVINGSTON AND BAY COUNTIES WEST OF US-23/I-75. THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE (PWAT < 0.80") AND A VERY SHALLOW (< 5KFT) WARM
CLOUD LAYER WILL PUT A DEFINITE CEILING ON POTENTIAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SO THINGS WILL NOT GET OUT OF CONTROL.
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR EASTERN AREAS,
INCLUDING DETROIT METRO, AS THE CONVERGENT RAINFALL BAND STALLS UPON
THE MID-LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF. HOWEVER, LATEST RAP SIMULATIONS SHOW
RESPECTABLE CAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ACROSS THE EAST. WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME SUBTLE RIDGING FORCED OVER THE EASTERN CWA DURING PEAK
HEATING, BUT LOW/MID-LEVEL THETA MAY BE JUST ENOUGH IN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR DISORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS, LIKELY POPS REMAIN IN PLACE IN
SPITE OF THE WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM YESTERDAY MORNING`S FORECAST.
WARMING TREND INTO THE 60S THURSDAY AND LOW 70S FRIDAY AS RIDGING IS
FORCED THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL
CU AND POSSIBLY JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT FULL SUN AND MUCH
WARMER TEMPS ON FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TAPS INTO 850MB TEMPS
IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS BY AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
MODEST NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.
SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MAY
LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF LAKE HURON DURING THIS TIME. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
BRING A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WAVE CONDITIONS ALONG THE THUMB DURING
THIS TIME. HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING TRANQUIL
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY...
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS SE MICHIGAN LATE TODAY.
THIS WILL FOCUS AN AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ALONG HIGHWAY 23
CORRIDOR...WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. DECREASING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT...LEAVING EASTERN PORTIONS OF METRO DETROIT NORTHWARD INTO
THE THUMB WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE BULK OF THIS
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....RBP
UPDATE.......HLO
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......MR
HYDROLOGY....MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1236 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
.UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER ENERGY IS STARTING TO CLOSE
OFF OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AS PREDICTED BY NWP SUITE. THIS SHOULD
PIVOT THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT WAS
OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING MORE INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN AS CYCLONIC FLOW INCREASES AROUND THE SYSTEM AND THE
DEFORMATION BAND TAKES ON A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATION. THIS IS ALREADY STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE PER LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY. BAND OF HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH
ROUGHLY FROM THE SAGINAW VALLEY DOWN THROUGH THE DETROIT AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER
WORKS SOUTHWARD. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO PRECIPITATION
PLACEMENT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST RUNS OF HIGHER-RES
MODELS (HRRR...NAM12...NMM)...WITH HIGHEST POPS AND QPF SHIFTED
VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. BIGGEST CHANGES WERE IN THE
FORM OF HIGHER POPS OVER LENAWEE COUNTY...LOWER POPS OVER THE
THUMB...AND A MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING TREND OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT.
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WARMING OCCURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING IN THE
LOW LEVELS AND THE UPPER LEVELS COOL IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
MU CAPE PER LATEST SPC ANALYSIS. STILL NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 709 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
STEADY STREAM OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUSTAIN POCKETS OF SHOWERS
WITHIN A HIGH BASED CLOUD THIS MORNING. SE MICHIGAN EXPECTED RESIDE
ALONG THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.
MBS/FNT REMAIN MORE FAVORABLY POSITIONED TO SEE A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
REDUCTION IN CONDITIONS INTO MVFR...PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR AT MBS.
OVERALL TIMING A TOUCH SLOWER NOW...BUT WILL HOLD WITH THIS GENERAL
TIMING. LESS CERTAINTY FROM PTK SOUTHWARD...BUT WITH GROWING
CONFIDENCE THAT PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN VFR AS SHOWERS
FILL IN. A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT EMBEDDED
THUNDER...UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TIMING AND COVERAGE PRECLUDING A
DEFINED MENTION.
FOR DTW...MINIMALLY IMPACTFUL LIGHT SHOWERS IN CEILINGS ABOVE 5000
FT FOR THE MORNING PERIOD. METRO WILL THEN RESIDE AT THE EASTERN
EDGE OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION /AND POSSIBLE THUNDER/ EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. EXISTING DRY LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT MAY PROVE A FORMIDABLE LIMITING FACTOR IN GREATER
DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY. THIS CONTINUES TO LEND SUPPORT TOWARD A MORE
OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK ON CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS DURING THIS TIME.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT PRIOR TO 20Z...MEDIUM FROM
MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE SPREAD STILL EXISTS AMONG THE GUIDANCE THIS MORNING AS
FORECAST LEAD TIME DIMINISHES TO ZERO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
POWERFUL LEAD WAVE DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST WITH A NEARLY
EQUIVALENTLY STRONG TRAILING WAVE OVER WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT
07Z. THE TRAILING WAVE HAS BEEN POORLY RESOLVED BY MANY MEMBERS OF
THE GUIDANCE...THE RAP APPEARING TO HANDLE IT THE BEST. EVEN SO, THE
RAPID REFRESH IS STRUGGLING TO KEEP UP WITH 3-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF
3-5MB THIS MORNING.
EXPANDING SHOWER COVERAGE IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE IS OCCURRING WITHIN
THE CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT HAS EMERGED OVER SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FOR NOW, THIS ACTIVITY IS
STRUGGLING TO PENETRATE THE CWA DUE TO ANTECEDENT DRY AIR EVIDENT ON
THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN SE
MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE COLUMN SATURATES, LARGE
SCALE FORCING INCREASES, AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION GETS UNDERWAY.
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST, THE BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY SHOWERS, IS SO FAR BEHAVING AS ANTICIPATED. ITS NARROW
STRUCTURE IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO DEEP LAYER LINEAR/CONVERGENT FORCING
ALONG THE STRONG TROUGH AXIS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN THE
PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
ENERGY CONTINUES TO FLOOD SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS
THIS OCCURS, THE BAND WILL STALL AND PIVOT IN CYCLONIC FASHION WITH
PRECIPITATION RATES INTENSIFYING AS DEFORMATION FORCING RAMPS UP
WEST OF US-23. IN ADDITION, DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LOW DENSITY CAPE PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY. SKINNY CAPE WITHIN PERSISTENT
STRONG DEFORMATION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A SOLID HALF INCH
TO THREE QUARTERS OF RAIN OVER WESTERN AREAS. A LOCALIZED AREA -
PERHAPS JUST THE FOOTPRINT OF A COUNTY OR TWO -COULD EASILY SEE OVER
AN INCH IN THIS SETUP. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
BETWEEN LIVINGSTON AND BAY COUNTIES WEST OF US-23/I-75. THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE (PWAT < 0.80") AND A VERY SHALLOW (< 5KFT) WARM
CLOUD LAYER WILL PUT A DEFINITE CEILING ON POTENTIAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SO THINGS WILL NOT GET OUT OF CONTROL.
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR EASTERN AREAS,
INCLUDING DETROIT METRO, AS THE CONVERGENT RAINFALL BAND STALLS UPON
THE MID-LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF. HOWEVER, LATEST RAP SIMULATIONS SHOW
RESPECTABLE CAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ACROSS THE EAST. WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME SUBTLE RIDGING FORCED OVER THE EASTERN CWA DURING PEAK
HEATING, BUT LOW/MID-LEVEL THETA MAY BE JUST ENOUGH IN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR DISORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS, LIKELY POPS REMAIN IN PLACE IN
SPITE OF THE WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM YESTERDAY MORNING`S FORECAST.
WARMING TREND INTO THE 60S THURSDAY AND LOW 70S FRIDAY AS RIDGING IS
FORCED THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL
CU AND POSSIBLY JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT FULL SUN AND MUCH
WARMER TEMPS ON FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TAPS INTO 850MB TEMPS
IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS BY AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
MODEST NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.
SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MAY
LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF LAKE HURON DURING THIS TIME. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
BRING A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WAVE CONDITIONS ALONG THE THUMB DURING
THIS TIME. HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING TRANQUIL
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY...
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS SE MICHIGAN LATE TODAY.
THIS WILL FOCUS AN AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ALONG HIGHWAY 23
CORRIDOR...WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. DECREASING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT...LEAVING EASTERN PORTIONS OF METRO DETROIT NORTHWARD INTO
THE THUMB WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE BULK OF THIS
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......HLO
AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......MR
HYDROLOGY....MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
322 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
TWO CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST IS THE THREAT OF FROST
TONIGHT WHILE THE SECOND IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI ON THURSDAY.
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FA AT MID
AFTERNOON WITH THE REGION SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WAS QUITE LOW AND IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
THE SYSTEM OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
PRECIPITOUSLY DUE TO THE LOW DEW POINTS. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S COMMON. THE LOWER 30S ARE MAINLY CONFINED FROM RUSK
THROUGH EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES WHERE A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IN THE FACT THAT IT MAY BE TOO COLD OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE IN THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DAMAGE FROM THE FROST MAY BE OVER BY THE TIME THE
CLOUDS THICKEN SO THE FROST ADVISORY WAS LEFT IN PLACE.
THE INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LEADS INTO THE SECOND CONCERN
OF WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI
ON THURSDAY. THE CLOUDINESS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE AND WAA
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SATURATION AND ADIABATIC OMEGA WAS MOST
NOTABLE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN FA THURSDAY MORNING ON THE NAM 300K
THETA SURFACE. THIS MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
VARIOUS CAMS INCLUDING THE HOPRWRF-TS...NAMNEST...NSSL AND HRRR SHOW
AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AFTER
06Z AND PUSHING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD.
IN ADDITION...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW. SURROUNDING OFFICES
WERE NOT SOLD ON THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WENT WITH A SPRINKLE
FORECAST. WE USED A VARIETY OF SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS AND INTRODUCED
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING FROM LADYSMITH
THROUGH EAU CLAIRE. LITTLE CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN EAU CLAIRE TO
THE LOWER 80S IN CANBY AND MORRIS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE THUNDER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER AIR PATTERN EARLY/INTO MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK.
THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST A BIT FASTER ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST DETERMINISITIC RUNS. THE SREF AND 12Z NAM ARE THE
SLOWEST WITH THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION BY 00Z SAT. IT SHOULD BE
POSITIONED NEAR A KJMR-KSTC-KMOX LINE AT THAT TIME. STILL SEE A
GOOD THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND 85-90F LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
BET FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/SRN MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
INCREASES AND THERE REMAINS WEAK FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WE WILL
HOLD ONTO THE SMALL CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY IN THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD
AND TRAIL THEM OFF THROUGH 12Z SAT.
COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR
THE WISCONSIN FISHING OPENER ALONG WITH MOTHERS DAY ON SUNDAY.
THE LONG TERM MODELS DIVERGE LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH THE OVERALL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN CONUS CUTOFF CIRCULATION. THE GFS
CARRIES MUCH OF THE SYSTEM THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE...WITH PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN THIRD AFFECTED MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF LIFTING A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS
OVER THE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE
GENERALLY CLOUDIER/COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE BLENDED MODEL POP GUIDANCE FOR NOW AND SEE IF
THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN FUTURE RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016
TWO CONCERNS THIS CYCLE. THE FIRST IS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. NW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL BE
COMMON FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH 22Z ALONG
WITH A FEW-SCT050-060. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING THEN BECOME LIGHT SSW ON THURSDAY. THE SECOND CONCERN
IS THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE 12Z-18Z
TIME FRAME. THE GREATEST THREAT AT THIS TIME IS AT KEAU WHERE A
PROB30 GROUPS WAS USED. INDICATED VCSH AT KRNH AND KMSP.
KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE 23Z-24Z PERIOD. SMALL THREAT FOR
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE 12Z-16Z PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC TSRA FRI EVENING. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ016-027-028.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
651 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE
LOWS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM WED...EARLIER CONVECTION THAT FIRED ON SEA BRZ IS
DIMINISHING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT POP IN CORRIDOR JUST INLAND FROM
CST CPL MORE HOURS THEN MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH POSS SOME
SHRA MOVING INTO NW TIER VERY LATE. AS NNE WINDS DEVELOP IN WAKE
OF FRONT EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG TO SPREAD SW
OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S INLAND AND THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /PERHAPS MONTHLY-DAILY
RECORDS FOR TEMPS ALOFT/ AND SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WAS TEMPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP LIKELY OVER THE NW THIRD OF THE
REGION WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CELLS DUE TO THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE MID 60S
OUTER BANKS AND UPPER 6OS TO LOWER 70S INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...AN OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OUT TO SEA BY
LATE SATURDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
THE APPROACHING UPPER CLOSED LOW SUPPLYING A ROUND OR TWO OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST SFC LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
YIELD CHC SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH WHERE
THE BEST LIFT IS REALIZED. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER EARLY SATURDAY WITH A SCHC SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING RAPIDLY, SO FEEL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DWINDLE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
GIVEN WEST WINDS, CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY, TEMPERATURE
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 ON FRIDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY
ALLOWING SUBSIDENCE SATURDAY. THIS IN ADDITION TO LESS CLOUD
COVER/SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO
THE LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE OBX.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY JUST
AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO CROSS LATE SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE FRONT
EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FEEL THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS BETTER LIFT AND
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD, PERHAPS DROPPING A
DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY GIVEN THE FRONT BISECTING EASTERN NC. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPS REALLY RAMP UP BY MID WEEK
AS WARM RETURN FLOW INCREASES. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO MID
70S ALONG THE OBX. LOW TEMPS INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL,
LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 645 PM WED...VFR THRU THE EVENING WITH SCT CLOUD...ISOLD
CONVECTION SHLD STAY E OF TAF SITES EARLY EVENING. AFTER 06Z WENT
CLOSE TO HRRR MODEL WITH IFR STRATUS SPREADING SW OVER ERN
NC...COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS LOW LVLS WILL BE SATURATED. THIS
STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONT THRU ABOUT 12Z THEN SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY MAINLY VFR THU. VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW TSRA DEVELOPING OVER REGION LATER WHICH
COULD LEAD TO OCNL SUB VFR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WITH A SERIES OF SFC LOWS CROSSING THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY, EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE OFF AND ON AT
THE TAF SITES WITH VARIABLE WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POSSIBLY SCHC SHOWERS EARLY
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA. GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING WE
COULD SEE STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH MONDAY
AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. RETURN FLOW INCREASES
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL STALL ACROSS EASTERN
NC AND BECOME WASHED OUT. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FROPA.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM WED...NO CHANGES WITH FRONT OVER NRN TIER EXPECTED
TO PUSH S OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISC...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WAS BECOMING STATIONARY FROM JUST SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET SOUTHWEST TO JUST WEST OF THE CRYSTAL COAST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SW FLOW IS 10 TO 15 KT WHILE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WINDS
ARE NORTH AROUND 10 KT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT. EXPECT THE
NORTHERLY FLOW TO SPREAD WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT
BECOME NE 10 TO 15 KT NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER BEHIND
THE FRONT AND EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW 10 KT OR LESS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS/FRONTS WILL CROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MEAN VARIABLE
WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS AND SEAS AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY,
JUST AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL CROSS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, BECOMING
WASHED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS MONDAY. GIVEN THIS PATTERN,
EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...RF/LEP
MARINE...RF/JME/LEP