Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/03/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
845 AM MST SUN MAY 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...
PROVIDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SUBSEQUENTLY REBUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A STRONG WARMING
TREND. ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA NEXT FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER COOL MORNING...FOR THE 1ST OF MAY ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
MORNING. MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SAW LOWS IN THE UPPER 50-LOW 60
RANGE...WITH SKY HARBOR SEEING A LOW OF 59...6 DEGREES BELOW THE
NORMAL FOR THE DATE. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT US THIS COOL
WEATHER...AND THE RAINFALL YESTERDAY/LAST NIGHT IS NOW MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AZ AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE 4-
CORNERS REGION BY THIS EVENING. TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS LOW
CENTER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE BEGINNING TO WARM...STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE AND ENDING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA.
HOWEVER...LEFT-OVER MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW CENTER IS STILL TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS OVER PINAL AND
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY
AT THIS HOUR. THE LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL RUN IS SHOWING THESE
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE CURRENT TRENDS...IT APPEARS THAT OUR CURRENT
SHORT-TERM FORECASTS ARE HOLDING UP WELL..AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER AZ WILL LINGER OVER THE STATE
TODAY...ALBEIT MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS
FORECAST THE 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER TO MOVE FROM OVER PHOENIX
EARLY THIS MORNING...TOWARD THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IN EAST CENTRAL AZ
BY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
DESERTS NEAR PHOENIX THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING STABILITY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES HOWEVER ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR MOUNTAINOUS ZONE 24 SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY
THROUGH EVENING. CLEARING TO PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS ENDING.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS PERIOD
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
BACK MIDDLE 90S ON THE LOWER DESERTS AGAIN...OR ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM TO
APPROACH SOUTHERN CA AND AZ LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ENSEMBLE
MEMBER SPREAD APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING MORE...INCREASING OUR
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS NEW WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BODILY MOVE INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. SINCE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE COMING
INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT...WE CAN PLACE SOME VALUE IN THE OPERATION GFS
WHICH SHOWS THIS SYSTEM TO BE INITIALLY DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WITH PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY. THEREFORE A BROAD
BRUSH FORECAST APPROACH SEEMS TO BE IN ORDER FOR NOW...KEEPING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING...AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
DEVELOPING.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MAKE A SLOW EXIT TO THE EAST OVER
AZ TODAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
MORNING FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD BEFORE PRECIP ACTIVITY FOCUSES
ON THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. SCT TO BKN CLOUDS RANGING 8
TO 12KFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING AND
EVENTUALLY CLEARING COMPLETELY AFTER SUNSET. TYPICAL EASTERLY AM
WINDS WILL TRANSITION SOUTH THEN WEST MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SPEEDS 6 KTS OR LESS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FOCUS OF ANY LINGERING PRECIP ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE
CO RIVER VALLEY. NOTICEABLY LIGHTER WINDS IN STORE TODAY WITH
HEADINGS VARIANT BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR KIPL AND NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FOR KBLH. FEW TO SCT CLOUDS GNLY AOA 10KFT WILL DISSIPATE
DURING THE DAY...WITH CLEAR SKIES POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON AND FOR
THE EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE
DISTRICTS QUICKLY WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WITH
MANY LOWER ELEVATION SITES HEADING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. DEEP
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST MIDWEEK SUPPORTING
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...PARTICULARLY FOR THURSDAY...AND LOW
HUMIDITIES MAY SUPPORT POCKETS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOWER AZ DESERTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE BY SATURDAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/SAWTELLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
303 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA INCREASING THE CHANCES
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL CA BRINING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA...AND
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPS THE COAST WARM AND FOG/LOW CLOUD FREE.
THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONANT WILL CEASE BY MONDAY FOR A RETURN OF
LOW CLOUDS AND LIKELY FOGGY CONDITIONS AT LEAST DURING THE NIGHTS
AND MORNINGS. A WEAK COLD FRONT AND GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL AREAS AND
INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH MAY MORPH INTO
A CUT OFF LOW THAT THE GFS HAS MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE BAY AREA BY
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND PERSISTENT SHOWER CHANCES TO THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS MAINLY EAST OF WEAVERVILLE. OTHERWISE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY NICE SPRING WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD BE
WEAKER TONIGHT SO CEILING DEVELOPMENT ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST WILL
NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON OTHERWISE EXPECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD. KML
&&
.MARINE...STEEP WAVES CONTINUED TO SUBSIDE TODAY AS THE RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWED WINDS TO DECREASE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW FEATURE DRIFTS NORTHWARD.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF
THE WEEK BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE BUILDS TOWARDS THE
WEST COAST. THIS WILL PINCH THE GRADIENT ONCE AGAIN AND BRING A
RETURN OF MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE LATE HALF OF THE
WEEK. A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL OTHERWISE DOMINATE THE SEA STATE
FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK WITH OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS PREDICTED
TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FT. STEEP WAVES WILL BUILD ONCE THE WINDS START
INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A SMALL LONG PERIOD SWELL EXPECTED
TO PROPAGATE THE WATERS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. KML
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
250 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.Synopsis...
Threat of afternoon showers and thunderstorms continues over the
mountains into Tuesday then a more widespread chance Wednesday
into Friday. Cooling to near normal midweek.
&&
.Discussion...
Thunderstorms and showers have developed along the western Sierra
slopes this afternoon. Current radar shows that most of the
thunderstorms are in El Dorado county and southward along the
Sierra. Latest HRRR run is showing that showers/thunderstorms will
gradually spread northward along the Sierra...reaching up to
around the Quincy-Chester area. HRRR also shows that
showers/thunderstorms could move into the foothills, especially
the Motherlode region along with some showers possible in the
Northern San Joaquin Valley this evening around Stockton and
Modesto. All shower activity should diminish by 9-10 pm tonight.
In the meantime, if you hear thunder, stay indoors for shelter to
avoid dangerous lightning and possible hail.
Meso low weakens over NorCal Monday although some lingering
chances for showers/thunderstorms possible along the higher
elevations of the Sierra. By Tuesday, a deep upper trough over the
Eastern Pacific Ocean will move into the West Coast which will
continue the threat of afternoon mountain showers and
thunderstorms. High temps trend down slightly on Tuesday as
synoptic cooling and onshore flow gradually increase over Interior
NorCal.
More notable cooling (5-10 degrees) on Wednesday as the
center of the low gets closer to interior NorCal. Valley highs
will be around the mid 70s with 50s and 60s along foothills and
mountains. Chance of showers will become more widespread on
Wednesday, covering much of our CWA. Instability with this low
will keep a slight chance of thunderstorm development in the mix,
too. JBB
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)
Forecast models are in decent agreement as to the position and
timing of the upper level low track and progression starting at the
beginning of the long term forecast period. The high amplitude
trough of low pressure is a bit quicker as advertised by the GFS
heading into late Wednesday night to early Thursday morning, while
the ECMWF has the arrival into NorCal more into the early to mid
morning hours on Thursday. In either scenario, the incoming storm
system will bring the needed lift behind enough moisture to bring
showers and thunderstorm chances for the entire forecast area. The
system will not move very quick, and cool temperatures along with
chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through next
weekend.
A cool down of temperatures is expected with a return to near normal
high temperatures in the low to mid 70s in the valley, 50s to 60s in
the foothills, and the low to mid 40s in the higher elevations on
Thursday and Friday. Temperatures should return to slightly above
normal temperatures in the valley next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the terminals for the next 24
hours. Thunderstorms over the Sierra Cascade range this afternoon
and evening. Light winds.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1029 AM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS....OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...RESULTING IN
SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS. COASTAL FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY RETURN BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. SEASONABLE
AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...CLEAR START TO THE DAY
WITH A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. N-TO-S GRADIENT RIGHT NOW
IS OVER 2 MB WHILE W-TO-E FLOW IS SLIGHTLY FROM THE EAST. AS THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED, MODELS ARE INDICATING A SOUTHERLY
PUSH UP THE COAST TODAY ALTHOUGH CURRENT SATELLITE DOES NOT SHOW
ANY CLOUDS EVEN UP TO SLO COUNTY. 14Z RUN OF THE HRRR DOES
INDICATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SET UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SO
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SATELLITE TO SEE IF IT DOES
MATERIALIZE.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THE MOMENT.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND IN SOME
CASES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS FORECAST AN END TO OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST. THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A CLASSIC "SOUTHERLY SURGE" SCENARIO...SINCE
LOW CLOUDS DO NOT ALREADY EXIST TO OUR SOUTH NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION. WHAT`S MORE LIKELY TO HAPPEN IS THAT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL FORM IN COASTAL AREAS FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE NORTH UP ALONG THE REST OF OUR COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY FOR COASTAL AREAS SINCE THE TIMING OF
THE SOUTHERLY WIND ONSET AND COASTAL FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR COOLING TO
OCCUR IN LOCATIONS LIKE BIG SUR AND SANTA CRUZ WHILE OTHER COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH TODAY IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON THAT IS ROTATING AROUND A LONGWAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
ALL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO OUR EAST...MAINLY OVER
THE SIERRA NEVADA. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS
FORECAST ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE
THEREFORE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR EASTERN ALAMEDA...SANTA
CLARA...AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES FOR LATER TODAY.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AT LEAST AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OFFSHORE ALONG
145W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND BEGIN TO GENERATE SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS
OUR AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A
CUTOFF LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR SAN FRANCISCO BY THURSDAY...WITH THAT
LOW THEN PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND PROBABLY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS WELL. GIVEN THE UNPREDICTABILITY OF CUTOFF LOW
MOVEMENT...IT`S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO OCCUR...BUT WILL WAIT TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW. IN ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THIS UPPER LOW
WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF OUR
AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPING
VFR TODAY. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THE FORECAST IS A
POSSIBLE SOUTHERLY SURGE LATER TODAY. LATEST NAM AND WRF SHOW A
SOUTHERLY SURGE IMPACTING KMRY/KSNS...POSS MAKING IT INTO SF BAY
OVERNIGHT. CONF IS MARGINAL.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR BECOMING MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 8:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
NORTH OF POINT REYES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. A MODERATE SWELL WILL MIX WITH A SMALLER LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THIS WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: SIMS
MARINE: SIMS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
844 AM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS....OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...RESULTING IN
SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS. COASTAL FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY RETURN BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. SEASONABLE
AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...CLEAR START TO THE DAY
WITH A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. N-TO-S GRADIENT RIGHT NOW
IS OVER 2 MB WHILE W-TO-E FLOW IS SLIGHTLY FROM THE EAST. AS THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED, MODELS ARE INDICATING A SOUTHERLY
PUSH UP THE COAST TODAY ALTHOUGH CURRENT SATELLITE DOES NOT SHOW
ANY CLOUDS EVEN UP TO SLO COUNTY. 14Z RUN OF THE HRRR DOES
INDICATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SET UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SO
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SATELLITE TO SEE IF IT DOES
MATERIALIZE.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THE MOMENT.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND IN SOME
CASES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS FORECAST AN END TO OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST. THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A CLASSIC "SOUTHERLY SURGE" SCENARIO...SINCE
LOW CLOUDS DO NOT ALREADY EXIST TO OUR SOUTH NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION. WHAT`S MORE LIKELY TO HAPPEN IS THAT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL FORM IN COASTAL AREAS FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE NORTH UP ALONG THE REST OF OUR COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY FOR COASTAL AREAS SINCE THE TIMING OF
THE SOUTHERLY WIND ONSET AND COASTAL FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR COOLING TO
OCCUR IN LOCATIONS LIKE BIG SUR AND SANTA CRUZ WHILE OTHER COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH TODAY IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON THAT IS ROTATING AROUND A LONGWAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
ALL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO OUR EAST...MAINLY OVER
THE SIERRA NEVADA. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS
FORECAST ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE
THEREFORE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR EASTERN ALAMEDA...SANTA
CLARA...AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES FOR LATER TODAY.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AT LEAST AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OFFSHORE ALONG
145W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND BEGIN TO GENERATE SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS
OUR AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A
CUTOFF LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR SAN FRANCISCO BY THURSDAY...WITH THAT
LOW THEN PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND PROBABLY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS WELL. GIVEN THE UNPREDICTABILITY OF CUTOFF LOW
MOVEMENT...IT`S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO OCCUR...BUT WILL WAIT TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW. IN ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THIS UPPER LOW
WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF OUR
AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:21 AM PDT SUNDAY...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPING
MAINLY VFR TODAY. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THE FORECAST
IS A POSSIBLE SOUTHERLY SURGE LATER TODAY. LATEST NAM AND WRF SHOW
A SOUTHERLY SURGE IMPACTING KMRY/KSNS...POSS MAKING IT INTO SF BAY
OVERNIGHT. CONF IS MARGINAL...BUT WILL ADD CIGS TO MONTEREY BAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR WITH SOME HAZE IN THE AM. VFR
BECOMING MVFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT..
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 8:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
NORTH OF POINT REYES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. A MODERATE SWELL WILL MIX WITH A SMALLER LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THIS WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1121 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
WEB CAMS INDICATE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL IS SITTING AROUND 6800
FEET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS VALLEYS THIS MORNING...BUT IR
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND TEMPERATURES RISING AT
LOCATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS AND NORTH. WITH THE CORE OF
THE CLOSED LOW SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...NOT
EXPECTING SNOW LEVEL TO RISE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER THE VALLEYS...BUT FURTHER NORTH THE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL
IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO 8000 FEET.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
MORE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. AT THIS HOUR...RADAR
MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING SOME RETURNS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CO/NM
BORDER WHILE IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS OVER THE
SAME REGION. THE HRRR AND RAP13 ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIP BEGINNING FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
TODAY WITH PRECIP REACHING THE SAN JUANS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM. SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR TODAY...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6
INCHES BUT ONLY FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY
SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION BEFORE MELTING AS THE DAY MOVES ON.
TOYED WITH IDEA OF ISSUING SOME ADVISORIES BUT A FEW THINGS
STICKING OUT. THE CORE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS RELATIVELY
WARM AT -20C WHILE H7 TEMPS OF -4C AT 6AM WILL WARM TO -1 TO -2C
BY NOON. ALSO...PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL DURING DAYTIME HOURS SO ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT MOST SNOW THAT FALLS. IF
NOT...SOME SLUSHY PATCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS
ALSO BROUGHT SNOW TO VARIOUS AREAS OF OUR CWA BUT IMPACTS WERE
MINIMAL. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
DAY SHIFT CAN KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS TRANSPIRE AND ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT IF NEEDED/REQUIRED.
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL HAVE REACHED JUST SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO BE MORE SPOTTY IN
NATURE. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW LOOKS TO
END AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM BUT THE GIST REMAINS THE
SAME. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
LEND ITSELF TO FORM SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY BUT
BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES. BOTH GFS/NAM PAINT SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE SAN JUANS TUESDAY EVENING BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE POP AND
DROP SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT WON`T POSE MUCH OF A THREAT. AS THIS
OCCURS...YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND
TAKES AIM AT OUR CWA. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE DOWN SOUTH BEFORE THE LOW SETS UP OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND BRINGS MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE LOWER HALVES OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH
14Z MONDAY AS LOW STRATUS HANGS AROUND.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...JAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
823 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
WEB CAMS INDICATE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL IS SITTING AROUND 6800
FEET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS VALLEYS THIS MORNING...BUT IR
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND TEMPERATURES RISING AT
LOCATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS AND NORTH. WITH THE CORE OF
THE CLOSED LOW SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...NOT
EXPECTING SNOW LEVEL TO RISE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER THE VALLEYS...BUT FURTHER NORTH THE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL
IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO 8000 FEET.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
MORE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. AT THIS HOUR...RADAR
MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING SOME RETURNS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CO/NM
BORDER WHILE IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS OVER THE
SAME REGION. THE HRRR AND RAP13 ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIP BEGINNING FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
TODAY WITH PRECIP REACHING THE SAN JUANS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM. SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR TODAY...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6
INCHES BUT ONLY FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY
SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION BEFORE MELTING AS THE DAY MOVES ON.
TOYED WITH IDEA OF ISSUING SOME ADVISORIES BUT A FEW THINGS
STICKING OUT. THE CORE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS RELATIVELY
WARM AT -20C WHILE H7 TEMPS OF -4C AT 6AM WILL WARM TO -1 TO -2C
BY NOON. ALSO...PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL DURING DAYTIME HOURS SO ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT MOST SNOW THAT FALLS. IF
NOT...SOME SLUSHY PATCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS
ALSO BROUGHT SNOW TO VARIOUS AREAS OF OUR CWA BUT IMPACTS WERE
MINIMAL. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
DAY SHIFT CAN KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS TRANSPIRE AND ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT IF NEEDED/REQUIRED.
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL HAVE REACHED JUST SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO BE MORE SPOTTY IN
NATURE. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW LOOKS TO
END AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM BUT THE GIST REMAINS THE
SAME. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
LEND ITSELF TO FORM SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY BUT
BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES. BOTH GFS/NAM PAINT SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE SAN JUANS TUESDAY EVENING BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE POP AND
DROP SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT WON`T POSE MUCH OF A THREAT. AS THIS
OCCURS...YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND
TAKES AIM AT OUR CWA. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE DOWN SOUTH BEFORE THE LOW SETS UP OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND BRINGS MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR KDRO AND KMTJ AND SOME
SNOW SHOWERS FOR KTEX. MVFR TO IFR IS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW AS THEY WILL BE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO START DROPPING FOR
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AND KGJT TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
427 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
MORE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. AT THIS HOUR...RADAR
MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING SOME RETURNS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CO/NM
BORDER WHILE IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS OVER THE
SAME REGION. THE HRRR AND RAP13 ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIP BEGINNING FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
TODAY WITH PRECIP REACHING THE SAN JUANS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM. SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR TODAY...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6
INCHES BUT ONLY FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY
SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION BEFORE MELTING AS THE DAY MOVES ON.
TOYED WITH IDEA OF ISSUING SOME ADVISORIES BUT A FEW THINGS
STICKING OUT. THE CORE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS RELATIVELY
WARM AT -20C WHILE H7 TEMPS OF -4C AT 6AM WILL WARM TO -1 TO -2C
BY NOON. ALSO...PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL DURING DAYTIME HOURS SO ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT MOST SNOW THAT FALLS. IF
NOT...SOME SLUSHY PATCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS
ALSO BROUGHT SNOW TO VARIOUS AREAS OF OUR CWA BUT IMPACTS WERE
MINIMAL. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
DAY SHIFT CAN KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS TRANSPIRE AND ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT IF NEEDED/REQUIRED.
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL HAVE REACHED JUST SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO BE MORE SPOTTY IN
NATURE. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW LOOKS TO
END AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM BUT THE GIST REMAINS THE
SAME. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
LEND ITSELF TO FORM SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY BUT
BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES. BOTH GFS/NAM PAINT SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE SAN JUANS TUESDAY EVENING BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE POP AND
DROP SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT WON`T POSE MUCH OF A THREAT. AS THIS
OCCURS...YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND
TAKES AIM AT OUR CWA. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE DOWN SOUTH BEFORE THE LOW SETS UP OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND BRINGS MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR KDRO AND KMTJ AND SOME
SNOW SHOWERS FOR KTEX. MVFR TO IFR IS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW AS THEY WILL BE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO START DROPPING FOR
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AND KGJT TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
411 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
MORE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. AT THIS HOUR...RADAR
MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING SOME RETURNS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CO/NM
BORDER WHILE IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS OVER THE
SAME REGION. THE HRRR AND RAP13 ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIP BEGINNING FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
TODAY WITH PRECIP REACHING THE SAN JUANS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM. SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR TODAY...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6
INCHES BUT ONLY FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY
SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION BEFORE MELTING AS THE DAY MOVES ON.
TOYED WITH IDEA OF ISSUING SOME ADVISORIES BUT A FEW THINGS
STICKING OUT. THE CORE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS RELATIVELY
WARM AT -20C WHILE H7 TEMPS OF -4C AT 6AM WILL WARM TO -1 TO -2C
BY NOON. ALSO...PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL DURING DAYTIME HOURS SO ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT MOST SNOW THAT FALLS. IF
NOT...SOME SLUSHY PATCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS
ALSO BROUGHT SNOW TO VARIOUS AREAS OF OUR CWA BUT IMPACTS WERE
MINIMAL. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
DAY SHIFT CAN KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS TRANSPIRE AND ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT IF NEEDED/REQUIRED.
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL HAVE REACHED JUST SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT EXPECT MORE THIS PRECIP TO BE MORE SPOTTY IN
NATURE. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW LOOKS TO
END AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM BUT THE GIST REMAINS THE
SAME. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
LEND ITSELF TO FORM SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY BUT
BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES. BOTH GFS/NAM PAINT SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE SAN JUANS TUESDAY EVENING BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE POP AND
DROP SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT WON`T POSE MUCH OF A THREAT. AS THIS
OCCURS...YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND
TAKES AIM AT OUR CWA. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE DOWN SOUTH BEFORE THE LOW SETS UP OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND BRINGS MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR KDRO AND KMTJ AND SOME
SNOW SHOWERS FOR KTEX. MVFR TO IFR IS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW AS THEY WILL BE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO START DROPPING FOR
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AND KGJT TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
350 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID/UPPER LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOUTHERN STREAM JET CROSSES OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE NOSE OF THE MAIN JETSTREAK
OVER OUR REGION. NORTHERN STREAM JET IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE
PROXIMITY...CROSSING OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...TO THE
MID MS AND OHIO VALLEYS. 01/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SAMPLED
THESE WINDS ALOFT WELL...SHOWING A DEEP LAYER WEST FLOW ABOVE
700MB.
AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TO
THE WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORMING AND
ONGOING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...BUT WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
REMOVED FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS
THAT WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH
ANVIL BLOWOFF ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM IN THE SYNOPTIC UPPER FLOW.
SEA-BREEZE HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST AND WE ARE NOW SEEING THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THIS WEST-COAST SEA-BREEZE AND THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE SET UP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. MID-AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
THE CUMULUS FIELD IN THIS REGION BECOMING A BIT MORE DEFINED.
ALTHOUGH...AS OF NOW...NOT SEEING ANYTHING ON RADAR AS THESE
COLUMNS ARE SHALLOW AND STILL TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG CAPPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWN WELL ON THE MORNING 12Z KTBW SOUNDING.
THIS CAPPING INVERSION WILL HOLD BACK MUCH OF THE CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WHERE MOISTURE POOLING IS GREATEST ALONG THE
CONVERGING SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES...ML CAPE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT
TO BRIEFLY OVERCOME THIS CAPPING LAYER AND SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCT STORMS AFTER 21Z. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE
ALREADY WAY TO AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION COMPARED TO
REALITY...SO UNFORTUNATELY CAN NOT USE THIS USUALLY RELIABLE
GUIDANCE TO HELP WITH THE SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS. FEEL THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION FOR NOW. EXPECT A
FEW STORMS TO FINALLY BREAK THIS CAP WITHIN THE ZONE DESCRIBED
ABOVE...MOST LIKELY INITIATING BETWEEN 21-22Z...AND THEN LINGER
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
TONIGHT...WITH THE LATE START TO THE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WOULD
ANTICIPATE THE CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP TO LINGERING FOR A FEW HOURS
PAST SUNSET. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
FAVORED CONVERGENCE ZONE UNTIL 03Z...AND THEN ALLOW THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY REGION-WIDE. A FEW POCKETS OF FOG ARE
QUITE LIKELY IN THE HOURS BEFORE DAWN...BUT NEITHER THE SREF OR
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING WE WILL HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
VIS ISSUES FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THAT THE COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE LOW...WOULD AGREE WITH THE NWP. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH UPPER 60S INLAND
AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
MONDAY...
OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM
TODAY. THE MOST INFLUENTIAL DIFFERENCE MAY BE THAT THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AND HENCE A BIT LESS
HOSTILE TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION. ALSO...THERE DOES STILL SEEM TO BE
A HINT OF THE CAPPING INVERSION IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT AT
LEAST FOR NOW...IT APPEARS LESS DRAMATIC. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE OF LATE DAY STORMS
ACROSS THE SAME FAVORED CONVERGENCE ZONE RUNNING ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. INHERITED FORECAST HAS 30-40% POPS IN
THIS ZONE...AND THEN TAPERS RAIN CHANCES BACK TO 10-20% AT THE
COAST. BASED ON THE EXTENT OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE CYCLE...DO NOT SEE
MUCH REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ANY CONVECTION ON MONDAY
WILL AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED BY THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO PUSH 90 FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AT THE BEACHES TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ENJOY YOUR SUNDAY EVENING EVERYONE!
&&
.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE
WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WINDS BECOME MORE SW AS SURFACE RIDGE
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST. INCREASING MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT (H5 TEMPS AROUND -12C) SHOULD CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG SEABREEZE/BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AREA WIDE.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES HELPING TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR
GIVING THIS FRONT THE PUSH IT NEEDS TO CLEAR OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY EXIST...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
AS TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES SO STAY TUNED. EITHER WAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT AND COOLER...DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR WILL
FILTER IN TO THE PENINSULA BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THU-SAT WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NO RAIN AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MID/UPPER 50S...LOW/MID 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN MODERATING LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
01/18Z CYCLE. PREVAILING VFR WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD NOW IN
PLACE. LIGHT SE TO EAST WINDS BEGINNING TO SHIFT ONSHORE ALONG
THE COAST...AND WILL SEE THIS SHIFT REACH KPIE/KTPA IN NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE SEA- BREEZE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEST POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SHOWER BETWEEN
20-00Z FOR KPGD/KFMY/KRSW...AND ADDED VCTS TO THESE TERMINALS.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO MIGRATE CLOSER TO TAMPA BAY
TERMINALS AFTER 00Z...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN CURRENT TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF AND MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHIFT NORTH BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...AND WINDS REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT. ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS...THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE DURING WEDNESDAY. A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS ARRIVES ACROSS THE STATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AWAY
FROM THE COAST...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FOG OR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 74 87 74 86 / 20 10 10 30
FMY 71 88 73 88 / 20 30 20 20
GIF 71 90 71 89 / 10 30 30 40
SRQ 72 83 72 84 / 10 10 10 20
BKV 68 88 68 87 / 20 20 20 30
SPG 74 86 75 85 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MCKAUGHAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
128 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
AVIATION...
01/18Z CYCLE. PREVAILING VFR WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD NOW IN
PLACE. LIGHT SE TO EAST WINDS BEGINNING TO SHIFT ONSHORE ALONG
THE COAST...AND WILL SEE THIS SHIFT REACH KPIE/KTPA IN NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE SEA- BREEZE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEST POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SHOWER BETWEEN
20-00Z FOR KPGD/KFMY/KRSW...AND ADDED VCTS TO THESE TERMINALS.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO MIGRATE CLOSER TO TAMPA BAY
TERMINALS AFTER 00Z...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN CURRENT TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID/UPPER LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOUTHERN STREAM JET CROSSES OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE NOSE OF THE MAIN JETSTREAK
OVER OUR REGION. NORTHERN STREAM JET IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE NORTH...CROSSING OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...TO THE
MID MS AND OHIO VALLEYS. 01/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SAMPLED
THESE WINDS ALOFT WELL...SHOWING A DEEP LAYER WEST FLOW ABOVE
700MB.
AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TO
THE WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORMING AND
ONGOING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...BUT WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
REMOVED FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS
THAT WE MAY SEE IS AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH ANVIL BLOWOFF
ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM IN THE SYNOPTIC UPPER FLOW.
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S...TOWARD AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF 90 AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. THE STRONG
TERRESTRIAL HEATING WILL EVENTUALLY VEER WINDS NEAR THE COAST
ONSHORE...MAINLY AFTER 18Z. WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE WILL RACE ACROSS THE
STATE AND SET UP THE MAIN CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA-BREEZE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LIKELY THE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE FOR OUR FORECAST SAMPLED IN THE
KTBW SOUNDING COLUMN THIS MORNING...IS THE DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING INVERSION SEEN BETWEEN 700-625MB. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT OBSTACLE FOR PARCELS TO OVERCOME TODAY IN THE PROCESS
OF CONVECTION. ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME MIXING TO OCCUR UP TO A
SURFACE TEMP AROUND 90 STILL HAS TROUBLE OVERCOMING THIS CAP.
CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKE MANY OF THE 06Z GUIDANCE MEMBERS
UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THIS CAP...AND HAVE NOTICED THE
LATEST HRRR BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE HAVING A MORE DIFFICULT TIME
BREAKING THE CAP INTO FREE CONVECTION COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS
THAT WERE NOT UTILIZING THIS REAL-TIME SOUNDING DATA.
THIS CAP WILL CERTAINLY DELAY THE ONSET OF ANY CONVECTION AS WE
WILL NEED TO REACH ABSOLUTE PEAK HEATING IF PARCELS ARE GOING TO
HAVE ANY CHANCE OF GETTING BY THIS INVERSION. LIKELY WE WILL
REQUIRE THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY MOISTURE POOLING TO REACH THE CAPE NEEDED
FOR STORMS. THEREFORE...STORMS SHOULD HAVE A LATE START...BE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND OCCUR IN A FAIRLY
NARROW ZONE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I-75.
TONIGHT...
WITH THE LATE START TO ANY CONVECTION...WOULD ANTICIPATE THE
CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP TO LINGERING FOR A FEW HOURS PAST SUNSET.
WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS FAVORED
CONVERGENCE ZONE UNTIL 03Z...AND THEN ALLOW THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY REGION-WIDE. A FEW POCKETS OF FOG ARE QUITE
LIKELY IN THE HOURS BEFORE DAWN...BUT NEITHER THE SREF OR
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING WE WILL HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
VIS ISSUES FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THAT THE COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE LOW...WOULD AGREE WITH THE NWP. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH UPPER 60S INLAND
AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
MONDAY...
OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM
TODAY. THE MOST INFLUENTIAL DIFFERENCE MAY BE THAT THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AND HENCE A BIT LESS
HOSTILE TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION. ALSO...THERE DOES STILL SEEM TO BE
A HINT OF THE CAPPING INVERSION IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT AT
LEAST FOR NOW...IT APPEARS LESS DRAMATIC. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE OF LATE DAY STORMS
ACROSS THE SAME FAVORED CONVERGENCE ZONE RUNNING ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. INHERITED FORECAST HAS 30-40% POPS IN
THIS ZONE...AND THEN TAPERS RAIN CHANCES BACK TO 10-20% AT THE
COAST. BASED ON THE EARLIER MEMBERS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE CYCLE TO
ARRIVE...DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WILL
WAIT FOR ALL THE 12Z CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE TO ARRIVE BEFORE
MAKING A FINAL FORECAST DECISION ON TOMORROW. ANY CONVECTION ON
MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED BY THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO PUSH 90 FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AT THE BEACHES TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ENJOY THE REMAINDER OF YOUR SUNDAY EVERYONE!
MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF AND MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHIFT NORTH BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 73 88 74 86 / 10 20 10 20
FMY 71 89 72 88 / 20 40 20 20
GIF 71 91 71 88 / 20 30 30 40
SRQ 72 85 72 83 / 10 10 10 20
BKV 68 88 67 87 / 10 20 20 30
SPG 74 86 74 85 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1150 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID/UPPER LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOUTHERN STREAM JET CROSSES OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE NOSE OF THE MAIN JETSTREAK
OVER OUR REGION. NORTHERN STREAM JET IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE NORTH...CROSSING OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...TO THE
MID MS AND OHIO VALLEYS. 01/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SAMPLED
THESE WINDS ALOFT WELL...SHOWING A DEEP LAYER WEST FLOW ABOVE
700MB.
AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TO
THE WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORMING AND
ONGOING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...BUT WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
REMOVED FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS
THAT WE MAY SEE IS AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH ANVIL BLOWOFF
ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM IN THE SYNOPTIC UPPER FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S...TOWARD AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF 90 AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. THE STRONG
TERRESTRIAL HEATING WILL EVENTUALLY VEER WINDS NEAR THE COAST
ONSHORE...MAINLY AFTER 18Z. WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE WILL RACE ACROSS THE
STATE AND SET UP THE MAIN CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA-BREEZE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LIKELY THE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE FOR OUR FORECAST SAMPLED IN THE
KTBW SOUNDING COLUMN THIS MORNING...IS THE DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING INVERSION SEEN BETWEEN 700-625MB. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT OBSTACLE FOR PARCELS TO OVERCOME TODAY IN THE PROCESS
OF CONVECTION. ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME MIXING TO OCCUR UP TO A
SURFACE TEMP AROUND 90 STILL HAS TROUBLE OVERCOMING THIS CAP.
CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKE MANY OF THE 06Z GUIDANCE MEMBERS
UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THIS CAP...AND HAVE NOTICED THE
LATEST HRRR BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE HAVING A MORE DIFFICULT TIME
BREAKING THE CAP INTO FREE CONVECTION COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS
THAT WERE NOT UTILIZING THIS REAL-TIME SOUNDING DATA.
THIS CAP WILL CERTAINLY DELAY THE ONSET OF ANY CONVECTION AS WE
WILL NEED TO REACH ABSOLUTE PEAK HEATING IF PARCELS ARE GOING TO
HAVE ANY CHANCE OF GETTING BY THIS INVERSION. LIKELY WE WILL
REQUIRE THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY MOISTURE POOLING TO REACH THE CAPE NEEDED
FOR STORMS. THEREFORE...STORMS SHOULD HAVE A LATE START...BE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND OCCUR IN A FAIRLY
NARROW ZONE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I-75.
TONIGHT...
WITH THE LATE START TO ANY CONVECTION...WOULD ANTICIPATE THE
CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP TO LINGERING FOR A FEW HOURS PAST SUNSET.
WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS FAVORED
CONVERGENCE ZONE UNTIL 03Z...AND THEN ALLOW THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY REGION-WIDE. A FEW POCKETS OF FOG ARE QUITE
LIKELY IN THE HOURS BEFORE DAWN...BUT NEITHER THE SREF OR
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING WE WILL HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
VIS ISSUES FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THAT THE COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE LOW...WOULD AGREE WITH THE NWP. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH UPPER 60S INLAND
AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
MONDAY...
OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM
TODAY. THE MOST INFLUENTIAL DIFFERENCE MAY BE THAT THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AND HENCE A BIT LESS
HOSTILE TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION. ALSO...THERE DOES STILL SEEM TO BE
A HINT OF THE CAPPING INVERSION IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT AT
LEAST FOR NOW...IT APPEARS LESS DRAMATIC. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE OF LATE DAY STORMS
ACROSS THE SAME FAVORED CONVERGENCE ZONE RUNNING ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. INHERITED FORECAST HAS 30-40% POPS IN
THIS ZONE...AND THEN TAPERS RAIN CHANCES BACK TO 10-20% AT THE
COAST. BASED ON THE EARLIER MEMBERS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE CYCLE TO
ARRIVE...DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WILL
WAIT FOR ALL THE 12Z CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE TO ARRIVE BEFORE
MAKING A FINAL FORECAST DECISION ON TOMORROW. ANY CONVECTION ON
MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED BY THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO PUSH 90 FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AT THE BEACHES TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ENJOY THE REMAINDER OF YOUR SUNDAY EVERYONE!
&&
.AVIATION...
01/12Z CYCLE. PREVAILING VFR WITH FEW TO SCT CU AND CI CLOUDS.
LIGHT SE TO EAST WINDS CURRENTLY...SHIFTING TO ONSHORE ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG
THE SEA-BREEZE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEST POTENTIAL FOR A
SHOWER AFTER 19Z FOR KPGD/KFMY/KRSW...HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES EVEN
FOR THESE TERMINALS LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE MENTION IN CURRENT TAF.
&&
.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF AND MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHIFT NORTH BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 89 73 88 74 / 10 10 20 10
FMY 89 71 89 72 / 20 20 40 20
GIF 91 71 91 71 / 20 20 30 30
SRQ 84 72 85 72 / 0 10 10 10
BKV 90 68 88 67 / 10 10 20 20
SPG 87 74 86 74 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
253 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. CURRENTLY...THERE IS A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM BACK ACROSS MS/AL. THE HRRR HAD A
GOOD HANDLE THIS MORNING ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION SO LEANING THAT DIRECTING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE HIGH
RES HRRR SHOWS A DIURNAL TREND WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SHOWING THEM CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA THEN DIMINISHING BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA FOR TODAY AND MONDAY.
THIS DOES LOOK GOOD AS THE BET MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYS ACROSS
NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE A VERY SIMILAR DAY MONDAY WITH WHEN AND
WHERE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP BACK UP MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.
01
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS STILL IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED. THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
17
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF ON A STORMY NOTE...BUT IS OVERALL
UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. STRONG SHORTWAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH BEST INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR AHEAD OF IT. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
EXPECT STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BE
MORE ORGANIZED AND PUSH THROUGH THE STATE RATHER QUICKLY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND AT THIS TIME SPC
DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA HIGHLIGHTED IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL STILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE STATE. POPS WEDNESDAY TAPER
OFF QUICKLY...THOUGH MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC AT THIS TIME.
CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT DRY/COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LARGELY DOMINATE OVER THE
AREA. ASIDE FROM SOME MINIMAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS FAR
NORTH GEORGIA...EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE
DRY. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE WEEK DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
31
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY OF THESE STORMS
TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES WILL BE BETWEEN 19Z-02Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY OUT OF THE SW AT 10KT OR LESS. VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET
BELOW VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN AND AROUND SHRA/TSRA. CEILINGS SHOULD
ALSO STAY ABOVE VFR LIMITS EXCEPT IN AND AROUND SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 65 83 62 78 / 50 60 60 40
ATLANTA 66 81 62 74 / 50 60 60 40
BLAIRSVILLE 60 76 58 70 / 50 70 70 40
CARTERSVILLE 63 80 61 74 / 50 70 70 30
COLUMBUS 67 84 65 79 / 40 50 50 40
GAINESVILLE 64 79 61 73 / 50 60 60 40
MACON 65 86 64 81 / 40 50 50 50
ROME 63 80 60 74 / 40 70 70 30
PEACHTREE CITY 62 82 61 76 / 50 60 60 40
VIDALIA 68 87 68 83 / 30 50 50 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
413 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS FAR TO THE NORTH TODAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS BEEN ABLE TO
SPARK OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY IS MODEST FOR EARLY
MORNING HOURS PER RAP SOUNDINGS AND MSAS INSTABILITY FIELDS, SO
THE RISK FOR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSES THE AREA. WILL SHOW AN AREA OF 20-30
GRIDDED POPS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COINCIDENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE RISK FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD
END BY SUNRISE AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO
THE NORTHEAST.
TODAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AND SHIFT FARTHER
OFFSHORE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE KICKING OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER, TODAY IS
LOOKING INCREASINGLY ACTIVE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS ANOTHER POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MOST OF THE MORNING LOOKS
DRY AS SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES IN THE WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY, BUT THIS WILL CHANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS INFERRED
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN
APPROACHING SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE MOST FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, UPPER
FORCING AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA NORTH OF
I-16 AND WEST OF I-95 BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. POPS WILL BE
INCREASED TO 50 PERCENT IN THIS REGION WITH 20-40 PERCENT POPS
ELSEWHERE--LOWEST ALONG THE BEACHES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WHICH IS ON TARGET TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD CANOPY, SO
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH A
FEW ISOLATED INSTANCES OF 90 OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE THE BREAKS WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT THIS MORNING.
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL SUPPORT COOLER/MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM INTO
THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS DEPICT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SBCAPE REACHING AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG INLAND AND LIFTED
INDICES AS LOW AS -6C. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF 0-3KM CAPE NOTED
WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH SUGGESTS STORMS COULD GO UP WITH
SOME FEROCITY ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. THE APPROACHING DRY SLOT
WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH DCAPE VALUES REACHING
AS HIGH AS 900-1200 J/KG. HIGH CAPE VALUES IN THE -10 TO -30C
LAYER AND WBZ HEIGHTS JUST ABOVE 10 KFT WILL ALSO SUPPORT A RISK
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY, WEAK SHEAR
PROFILES OF 15-25 KT SUGGEST THE FORMATION OF ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL FORCING IS SUPPLEMENTED BY
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE GREATEST NORTH OF I-16 AND WEST OF I-95 AND WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THE EARLY
EVENING AS INSTABILITY WANES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
BRUSH THE CENTRAL/UPPER CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS NOCTURNAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS STILL RATHER
LOW. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM/HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.
MONDAY...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
BROAD...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH- CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
REGION ON THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH
PERIODIC WEAK UPPER IMPULSES EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY. GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THE UPPER FEATURES...TIMING OF
CONVECTION IS CHALLENGING. MONDAY STARTS OUT DRY WITH POPS
INCREASING TO CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM
HEATING. CAPE VALUES ARE MODERATE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE...BUT WEAK BULK SHEARS WILL MEAN ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND LACK ORGANIZATION. THE
MODELS STILL INDICATE HIGH POPS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SEEMS TO BE A
LITTLE OVERDONE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. KEPT
CHANCE POPS...BUT HAVE THEM TRENDING DOWNWARD AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES.
TUESDAY...THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST WHILE A SHORT WAVE
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE DAY...MOVING INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE SPREAD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH A COLD
FRONT STRETCHED DOWN NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. OUR AREA WILL BE IN
THE WARM/UNSTABLE SECTOR OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5
INCHES...COMBINED WITH GOOD LIFT DUE TO THE TROUGH AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
RAISED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER
FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BE STRONG OR MAYBE SEVERE.
ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LIFT AND MOISTURE THERE WILL BE A JET
STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE. THE QUESTION IS DO ALL OF THE
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME? IF THEY DO THEN THE
GREATEST THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. GIVEN THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FEATURES COMING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT
TIME...ESPECIALLY THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY CROSS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE STILL DO NOT HAVE SEVERE IN THE FORECAST AND ARE
HIGHLIGHTING IT IN THE HWO. THIS WILL BE UPDATED IN THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PACKAGES.
WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH IS STILL OVER THE EAST COAST WHILE THE SHORT
WAVE ROUNDS THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF IT...MOVING INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE
IN THE MORNING...MOVING AWAY DURING THE DAY. SOME REMNANT LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDITIONS. HIGH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. A DRY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY. DESPITE A TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THE EAST COAST DURING THIS ENTIRE TIME PERIOD...POPS
ARE LOW BECAUSE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SPREAD ACROSS OR NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS PRIOR TO SUNRISE WILL BE AT KCHS. RIGHT
NOW...CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT STRATUS BUILD DOWN SO
CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR THERE. WILL CARRY PREVAILING
MVFR CIGS 08-12Z. AT KSAV...EXPECT MAINLY VFR NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
MARGINAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL GO A TEMPO
GROUP FROM 09-12Z TO COVER THIS. OTHERWISE...VFR TODAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS. WILL
NOT CARRY A MENTION OF TSRA OR SHRA FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITHIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...THE WATERS WILL SIT BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WELL ENE OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. UNSETTLE CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE. AN ESTIMATED TIME FOR DATA
RESTORATION IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/MS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
906 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
The upper shortwave departing to the east along with the arrival
of dry air from near Lake Michigan has allowed clouds to clear out
in our northeast counties early this evening. Farther NW of
Peoria and Galesburg where diurnal cumulus were more prevalent,
clouds are also decreasing in coverage in general. HRRR output
remains very optimistic that clearing with push quickly east
across our forecast area by sunrise Tuesday. Have sped up the
clearing in the forecast for tonight. Will monitor trends closely,
as night-time clearing can be more troublesome than daytime
clearing trends, due to subsidence inversions and decoupling of
low level winds.
Spotty showers or sprinkles will still be possible in any cloud
cover as the surface trough slowly drifts south toward southern
IL. Will keep isolated rain chances going in the south, with
diminishing coverage from NW to SE the rest of the night.
Have trimmed a degree or two from the overnight lows to account
for possible earlier clearing. Lower 40s appear likely in
locations north of I-72, especially in a areas where clearing has
already developed this evening. Lows should bottom out in the
upper 40s southeast of I-70 where clouds linger the longest.
Updated forecast info is already available.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Main short-term forecast concern will be timing of potential
clearing tonight. While the main surface boundary has dropped south
of the Ohio River, a trailing upper trough extending from Wisconsin
southwestward to Kansas has provided enough synoptic lift to produce
widespread overcast conditions today. Visible satellite loops show
the low cloud cover pivoting southward on the back side of a subtle
upper wave currently over central Illinois. As this feature tracks
further eastward, think clouds will gradually dissipate/clear the
Illinois River Valley this evening. Due to trajectory of cloud
cover and relatively light flow, clouds will likely hold throughout
the entire night along/east of the I-57 corridor. May see a few
isolated light showers this evening: however, most locations will
remain dry. Overnight low temperatures will range from the lower
40s northwest of the Illinois River where clearing will occur
earliest...to around 50 degrees far southeast around Robinson and
Lawrenceville.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Cyclonic flow will continue over the area through Wed. A lull in the
pcpn chances will be seen Tuesday as CWA will be in between troughs
rotating through the area. However, will still keep a slight chance
of showers in the east and southeast Tuesday due to a 500mb trough
moving south through the area...just without any surface reflection.
A bigger and more dominate trough will drop into the area Tue night
through Wed. Pcpn will start in the north Tue evening and then move
south through the area the remainder of the night and then in the
east on Wed. Isolated thunder will also be possible given greater
lapse rates due to cold 500mb temps moving over the area in
association with the upper level low. The pcpn will move off to the
east Wed night, which will allow high pressure to build into the
region with dry weather and slowly warming temps for Thur through
Fri. This surface high pressure ridge will get flattened by the end
of the week as another frontal system drops into the area for the
weekend. With warm and moist air being advected into the area Friday
and Saturday, will be plenty of instability for thunderstorms along
and ahead of the front Sat night through Monday. The front does seem
to hang around the area through the weekend since there will be an
upper level low just east of the US and another one over the
southwest US.
Temps will remain below normal most of the week, but begin to warm
back up as the high pressure that builds in Thursday moves off to
the east, bringing back southerly winds. The warmer temps will
continue through the weekend and into the beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Ceilings have lifted to VFR levels by late afternoon, and should
erode tonight as a weak shortwave shifts east of the region and
drier air works in from the north. Scattered cumulus will develop
by mid morning and may periodically go broken with bases
remaining above MVFR levels through afternoon. A weak high
pressure ridge will bring light/variable winds overnight before
veering to the WNW near/under 10 kts on Tuesday, ahead of a cold
front approaching from the north.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
656 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...
215 PM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN IL...AS
DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID/UPR 30S ACROSS FAR NORTHCENTRAL
IL. FURTHER SOUTH DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 40 THE LOWER 40S.
CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED MINIMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS WEST OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. JUST BEYOND PEAK
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON THE DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE...WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
STEADILY RADIATE INTO THE LOWER 40S. HOWEVER AREAS THAT HAVE HAD DEW
POINTS THIS AFTERNOON FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S...TEMPS TONIGHT COULD
DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S BETWEEN ROCKFORD AND WAUKEGAN DOWN TO DEKALB.
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST WORDING OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY... BROAD SFC RIDGING WILL CONSOLIDATE TO A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS...WHICH WILL ALLOW A WEST/EAST GRADIENT TO
DEVELOP MIDDAY TUESDAY. WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY
TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 50S AND EVENTUALLY MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN IL. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AS WELL...WITH THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TURNING TOWARDS
A SHORTWAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND A TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ARRIVING AROUND THE EVENING HOURS FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
248 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
NOAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PACIFIC JET COMING ONSHORE IN THE
WESTERN US BEING FORCED NORTHWARD INTO CANADA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH HELPING TO CURVE THIS JET ANTI-CYCLONICALLY AROUND WESTERN
CANADA. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS JET CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD IN
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL BE
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET AS 500 MB HEIGHTS FALL
IMPRESSIVELY DURING CYCLOGENESIS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PULL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA. GIVEN THE RAPID UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ALONG THE LINE OF SHOWERS.
HEIGHT FALLS TO NEAR 540 DAM ARE PROJECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND
H85 TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. COLD AIR OF
THIS NATURE FALLS INTO THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF ILX/DVN SOUNDINGS
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY. GIVEN THESE ANOMALIES...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS
ONLY HITTING THE UPPER 40S. WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE CENTER OF THE 500 MB LOW PASSING OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...EXPECT WEAK CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
GRAUPEL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL SHOCK WILL COME WITH
THE NEAR FREEZING CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKIES MAY CLEAR
OUT SOME...BUT SURFACE TO H85 RH REMAINS ABOVE 80 PERCENT NEAR THE
LAKE. LUCKILY THE WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE 5-10KT THANKS TO A
LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT. IF EITHER OF THESE TWO INGREDIENTS GO
AWAY IN FUTURE FORECASTS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP 5 DEGREES COOLER.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A PSEUDO OMEGA
BLOCK PATTERN ADVANCING AND SHRINKING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE
CONUS. EXPECT A SHARP INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WILL BE ONGOING. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
BECOME STATIONARY. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN WHILE
KEEPING A PERSISTENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DAYS 6-7
FORECAST.
MM
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
CONCERNS/HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE 0Z TAFS INCLUDE
-WINDS TURNING WESTERLY WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
-SHOWERS AT THE END OF THE 30 HR ORD TAF CYCLE...WITH A
THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
VFR CIGS WITH BASES OF 7000-8000 FEET WILL ERODE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET. ANOTHER POCKET OF LOWER VFR CIGS ACROSS THE LAKE AND
ADJACENT CHICAGOLAND TERMINALS...WITH BASES AROUND 5000-6000 FEET
IN NE IL...AND 3000-4000 FEET IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...WILL ERODE
BUT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO DO SO.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THUS A QUICK
COLLAPSE TO THE EAST WIND IS EXPECTED WITH A PERIOD OF
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TURNING LIGHT WESTERLY OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BUILD SOUTH LATER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST...THEN SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
MID TO LATE EVENING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL CAPE VALUES
ARE LOW WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A NON-ZERO THUNDER THREAT...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE EROSION OF A CAP THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
AT THIS DISTANCE...EVEN AT THE PROB30 LEVEL.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
248 PM CDT
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL KEEP CALM
CONDITIONS PRESENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN LAKE
TO LAND TEMPERATURES WILL ASSIST IN STABILITY OVER THE LAKE AS
WELL. ON TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT BEFORE SHARPLY SHIFTING NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW GUSTS IN THE UPPER 20S INTO WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING THAT
FRONTAL FEATURE...A STABLE HIGH PRESSURE REGIME IS EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND.
MM
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
618 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Main short-term forecast concern will be timing of potential
clearing tonight. While the main surface boundary has dropped south
of the Ohio River, a trailing upper trough extending from Wisconsin
southwestward to Kansas has provided enough synoptic lift to produce
widespread overcast conditions today. Visible satellite loops show
the low cloud cover pivoting southward on the back side of a subtle
upper wave currently over central Illinois. As this feature tracks
further eastward, think clouds will gradually dissipate/clear the
Illinois River Valley this evening. Due to trajectory of cloud
cover and relatively light flow, clouds will likely hold throughout
the entire night along/east of the I-57 corridor. May see a few
isolated light showers this evening: however, most locations will
remain dry. Overnight low temperatures will range from the lower
40s northwest of the Illinois River where clearing will occur
earliest...to around 50 degrees far southeast around Robinson and
Lawrenceville.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Cyclonic flow will continue over the area through Wed. A lull in the
pcpn chances will be seen Tuesday as CWA will be in between troughs
rotating through the area. However, will still keep a slight chance
of showers in the east and southeast Tuesday due to a 500mb trough
moving south through the area...just without any surface reflection.
A bigger and more dominate trough will drop into the area Tue night
through Wed. Pcpn will start in the north Tue evening and then move
south through the area the remainder of the night and then in the
east on Wed. Isolated thunder will also be possible given greater
lapse rates due to cold 500mb temps moving over the area in
association with the upper level low. The pcpn will move off to the
east Wed night, which will allow high pressure to build into the
region with dry weather and slowly warming temps for Thur through
Fri. This surface high pressure ridge will get flattened by the end
of the week as another frontal system drops into the area for the
weekend. With warm and moist air being advected into the area Friday
and Saturday, will be plenty of instability for thunderstorms along
and ahead of the front Sat night through Monday. The front does seem
to hang around the area through the weekend since there will be an
upper level low just east of the US and another one over the
southwest US.
Temps will remain below normal most of the week, but begin to warm
back up as the high pressure that builds in Thursday moves off to
the east, bringing back southerly winds. The warmer temps will
continue through the weekend and into the beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Ceilings have lifted to VFR levels by late afternoon, and should
erode tonight as a weak shortwave shifts east of the region and
drier air works in from the north. Scattered cumulus will develop
by mid morning and may periodically go broken with bases
remaining above MVFR levels through afternoon. A weak high
pressure ridge will bring light/variable winds overnight before
veering to the WNW near/under 10 kts on Tuesday, ahead of a cold
front approaching from the north.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
618 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Main short-term forecast concern will be timing of potential
clearing tonight. While the main surface boundary has dropped south
of the Ohio River, a trailing upper trough extending from Wisconsin
southwestward to Kansas has provided enough synoptic lift to produce
widespread overcast conditions today. Visible satellite loops show
the low cloud cover pivoting southward on the back side of a subtle
upper wave currently over central Illinois. As this feature tracks
further eastward, think clouds will gradually dissipate/clear the
Illinois River Valley this evening. Due to trajectory of cloud
cover and relatively light flow, clouds will likely hold throughout
the entire night along/east of the I-57 corridor. May see a few
isolated light showers this evening: however, most locations will
remain dry. Overnight low temperatures will range from the lower
40s northwest of the Illinois River where clearing will occur
earliest...to around 50 degrees far southeast around Robinson and
Lawrenceville.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Cyclonic flow will continue over the area through Wed. A lull in the
pcpn chances will be seen Tuesday as CWA will be in between troughs
rotating through the area. However, will still keep a slight chance
of showers in the east and southeast Tuesday due to a 500mb trough
moving south through the area...just without any surface reflection.
A bigger and more dominate trough will drop into the area Tue night
through Wed. Pcpn will start in the north Tue evening and then move
south through the area the remainder of the night and then in the
east on Wed. Isolated thunder will also be possible given greater
lapse rates due to cold 500mb temps moving over the area in
association with the upper level low. The pcpn will move off to the
east Wed night, which will allow high pressure to build into the
region with dry weather and slowly warming temps for Thur through
Fri. This surface high pressure ridge will get flattened by the end
of the week as another frontal system drops into the area for the
weekend. With warm and moist air being advected into the area Friday
and Saturday, will be plenty of instability for thunderstorms along
and ahead of the front Sat night through Monday. The front does seem
to hang around the area through the weekend since there will be an
upper level low just east of the US and another one over the
southwest US.
Temps will remain below normal most of the week, but begin to warm
back up as the high pressure that builds in Thursday moves off to
the east, bringing back southerly winds. The warmer temps will
continue through the weekend and into the beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Ceilings have lifted to VFR levels by late afternoon, and should
erode tonight as a weak shortwave shifts east of the region and
drier air works in from the north. Scattered cumulus will develop
by mid morning and may periodically go broken with bases
remaining above MVFR levels through afternoon. A weak high
pressure ridge will bring light/variable winds overnight before
veering to the WNW near/under 10 kts on Tuesday, ahead of a cold
front approaching from the north.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
313 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Main short-term forecast concern will be timing of potential
clearing tonight. While the main surface boundary has dropped south
of the Ohio River, a trailing upper trough extending from Wisconsin
southwestward to Kansas has provided enough synoptic lift to produce
widespread overcast conditions today. Visible satellite loops show
the low cloud cover pivoting southward on the back side of a subtle
upper wave currently over central Illinois. As this feature tracks
further eastward, think clouds will gradually dissipate/clear the
Illinois River Valley this evening. Due to trajectory of cloud
cover and relatively light flow, clouds will likely hold throughout
the entire night along/east of the I-57 corridor. May see a few
isolated light showers this evening: however, most locations will
remain dry. Overnight low temperatures will range from the lower
40s northwest of the Illinois River where clearing will occur
earliest...to around 50 degrees far southeast around Robinson and
Lawrenceville.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Cyclonic flow will continue over the area through Wed. A lull in the
pcpn chances will be seen Tuesday as CWA will be in between troughs
rotating through the area. However, will still keep a slight chance
of showers in the east and southeast Tuesday due to a 500mb trough
moving south through the area...just without any surface reflection.
A bigger and more dominate trough will drop into the area Tue night
through Wed. Pcpn will start in the north Tue evening and then move
south through the area the remainder of the night and then in the
east on Wed. Isolated thunder will also be possible given greater
lapse rates due to cold 500mb temps moving over the area in
association with the upper level low. The pcpn will move off to the
east Wed night, which will allow high pressure to build into the
region with dry weather and slowly warming temps for Thur through
Fri. This surface high pressure ridge will get flattened by the end
of the week as another frontal system drops into the area for the
weekend. With warm and moist air being advected into the area Friday
and Saturday, will be plenty of instability for thunderstorms along
and ahead of the front Sat night through Monday. The front does seem
to hang around the area through the weekend since there will be an
upper level low just east of the US and another one over the
southwest US.
Temps will remain below normal most of the week, but begin to warm
back up as the high pressure that builds in Thursday moves off to
the east, bringing back southerly winds. The warmer temps will
continue through the weekend and into the beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
MVFR ceilings prevail at the central Illinois terminals early this
afternoon. Latest water vapor imagery shows a weak short-wave
trough over west-central Illinois between KSTL and KUIN. As this
feature tracks eastward, the low cloud cover will tend to pivot
southward in its wake, resulting in rising ceilings and eventually
a clearing trend from west to east later this afternoon and
evening. HRRR forecast suggests ceilings improving to VFR at KPIA
as early as 20z...but holding off until 03-04z further southeast
at KCMI/KDEC. Think skies will clear along/west of I-55 during the
evening, then further east late tonight toward dawn Tuesday. After
that, forecast soundings indicate steep lapse rates developing on
Tuesday, which should lead to at least SCT diurnal clouds at
around 5000ft. Winds will be light through the entire
period...initially from the northeast this afternoon, shifting to
the northwest by Tuesday morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
304 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...
234 PM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF
NEXT ROUND OF PCPN. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS STILL WELL TO THE
WEST...OVER SRN IA/NRN MO...AND LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATE SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
SO...WHILE STILL FEEL THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA IS LIKELY FOR THE
REGION...IT COULD HOLD OFF FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLD TS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST NORTH
OF THE SFC WARM FRONT...AND CLOSER TO THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE THE MOST CONCENTRATED. OTHERWISE...FOR THE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AS NELY FLOW
PERSISTS OFF OF THE RELATIVELY COLD LAKE MICHIGAN WATER.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 40S NEAR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE AND REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
COOL...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S TOWARD THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND
THE UPPER 40S SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND FINALLY PUSH TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MORNING. WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD HELP SHUT OFF AND RESIDUAL
PCPN CHANCES AND BRING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST
PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM
WAVE...SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES...THOUGH WITH WINDS STILL NELY AT THE SFC...LAKEFRONT
LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REMAIN COOLER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...WITH HIGHS ALONG THE LAKEFRONT ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE
INLAND AREAS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
203 PM CDT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ELONGATED MID-LVL TROUGH WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION LATE MON
NIGHT...HEADED FOR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A BROAD
SFC RIDGE TO SLIDE SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND ALSO STEADILY ERODE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP...HOWEVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWFA COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY MON EVE BEFORE
QUICKLY ENDING. WINDS WILL BE TURNING NORTHERLY BUT WITH THE WEAK
GRADIENT SPEEDS WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH...SO EXPECT THE EROSION OF
CLOUD COVER TO BE SLOW. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S...BUT A
FEW AREAS IN FAR NORTHERN IL COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING...SO
WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME FROM INCLUDING ANY MENTION OF FROST MON
NGT.
TUE WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE BROAD SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT WILL EXTEND EAST THROUGH THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
MID-LVL RIDGE LIFTING INTO WESTERN CANADA A LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL
DRIVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE AFTN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TUE NGT...WITH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES SOUTH LATE TUE. LAPSE RATES WILL
QUICKLY STEEPEN AS THE 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS AND SFC TEMPS
TUE AFTN WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO REMAIN
MARGINAL...HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE PRESENT THAT A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER COULD OCCUR LATE TUE/EARLY WED. HAVE PUSHED POPS
UP TO LIKELY TUE EVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FORTUNATELY ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE
PROGRESSIVE AND PUSH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FURTHER EAST BY EARLY
WED...WHICH SHOULD HELP EJECT THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WED MORNING AND BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT DRIER AIR COULD
ARRIVE BY EARLY WED AFTN. BUT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND THE 50S...AND AREAS AJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S WED AFTN. WED NGT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
ARRIVES WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPS...FALLING INTO THE MID/UPR 30S. AT THIS TIME HAVE HELD OFF ON
MENTION OF FROST BUT IF CLOUDS ERODE QUICKER WED EVE THEN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST IS PLAUSIBLE FOR AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NORTH OF I-80.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... LATEST ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS FEATURE
SLIDES EAST...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH THE FOCUS TURNING
TOWARDS THE MID-LVL TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
SAT/SUN. SIMULTANEOUSLY A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO...AND COULD LAYOUT A BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL QUICKLY MODERATE FROM THE
60S TO PERHAPS LOW 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN DEPENDING ON A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT SUN COULD SEE TEMPS BACK IN THE 60S.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
PRIMARY CONCERNS...
-IFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY DROPPING TO LIFR
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
-PERIOD OF SHRA EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EVE.
CIGS REMAINING IN IFR RANGE EARLY THIS AFERNOON...WITH LIFR CIGS
PERSISTING NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING KGYY. WITH
SOME WEAK MIXING AND A LITTLE DIURNAL WARMING...VIS HAS GENERALLY
IMPROVED TO VFR OR HIGHER END MVFR LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT
THAT CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LIFTING
TO HIGHER END IFR OR LOWER END MVFR. HOWEVER...SINCE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER PERSISTENT NELY FLOW AND WELL NORTH OF A SFC
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SRN IL/IN...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE TOMORROW WHEN THE SFC LOW
CURRENTLY OVER NRN MO FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND SOME DRIER
AIR CAN MOVE INTO THE REGION. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL
REMAIN PREVAILING NELY. CIGS/VIS SHOULD DROP AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS SHRA/RA SPREADS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SCF LOW TRACKS SLOWLY EWD. WITH THE
PCPN FALLING THROUGH THE STRATUS DECK...EXPECT THAT CIGS SHOULD
LOWER TO LIFR AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
304 PM CDT
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE NEARSHORE
WATERS ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE TO DIMINSH AS WELL. STILL LOOKING AT
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FT TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
DIMINISHING TREND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS....A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL TRY TO INCREASE
THE GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
ALTHOUGH THE WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT AT
THE MOST...BUT NOT LINGER VERY LONG. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INFLUENCES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH LIGHTER
WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTH FROM CENTRAL
CANADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST
BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLIDE SOUTH AND INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND TURN
WINDS NORTHERLY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD.
SMALL CRAFT HAZARDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY FOR THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA NEARSHORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
300 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows stationary frontal boundary extending
from central Indiana southwestward into the Ozarks. Ahead of the
front, temperatures have climbed into the middle 70s and SBCAPE
values have reached the 1500-2000J/kg range south of I-70. This
will be the area of the KILX CWA that will be monitored for
potential severe weather over the next few hours as an upper low
over northern Missouri/southern Iowa shears northeastward and
provides additional synoptic lift. HRRR is showing scattered
convection across the SE CWA in the warm/unstable airmass...and
additional showers/isolated thunder further northwest in closer
proximity to the upper low between now and about 02z/9pm. Given
good convergence along the frontal boundary and strong instability,
think a strong wind/large hail threat will exist with any storms
that fire south of I-70 late this afternoon into the early evening.
Once the sun sets and daytime instability wanes, the convection will
weaken and shift eastward into the Ohio River Valley by mid-evening.
After that, mostly cloudy and cool conditions will prevail for the
balance of the night, with low temperatures ranging from the middle
40s northwest of the Illinois River...to the lower 50s far southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
The upper level trough and surface cyclonic flow is forecast to
remain in place over the Great Lakes region, effecting central and
southeast Illinois through the first part of the week. This will
keep partly sunny and chilly conditions in the area through Wed. In
addition, the cyclonic flow will provide enough focus for
instability showers periodically Mon through Wed. There could be a
break in the scattered pcpn Mon night and Tue, but still keeping a
slight chance of pcpn in the forecast. As the main upper level
system drops down toward Ohio, colder upper level temps will also
arrive, increasing the instability in the area. So have added a
slight chance for thunderstorms, along with the showers for Tue
night and Wed.
Beyond Wed, the pattern should begin to change and sfc ridging
should begin to build into the area. This will push the upper level
system to the east and bring drier weather to the area for the last
half of the weekend. As the high moves across the area, another
weather system will begin to develop in the plains and bring the
return of showers and thunderstorms for possibly next Sunday.
Temps will remain on the cool side through most of the week with the
continued cyclonic flow and general cloudiness. Once the high
pressure moves over the area, temps will begin to warm back up and
should reach into the 70s by the end of the week and into the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
IFR ceilings prevail at the central Illinois terminals early this
afternoon: however, latest visible satellite imagery is showing
an appreciable thinning of the overcast. HRRR has consistently
suggested ceilings rising into the MVFR category over the next
couple of hours and have followed this trend accordingly. Think
KPIA/KBMI will be the last sites to improve as cloud cover appears
thickest in this area. With partial sunshine breaking through and
an upper low providing modest synoptic lift, think scattered
showers/thunder will develop this afternoon/evening. Have included
VCTS to cover this possibility. Once daytime instability wanes,
any showers will come to an end after sunset. After that, the low
overcast will spread/develop back southward...with the HRRR
showing IFR ceilings back at all TAF sites between 04z and 06z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
204 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.UPDATE...1044 AM CDT
UNFORTUNATELY IT APPEARS MOTHER NATURE HAS OPTED TO HIT THE PAUSE
BUTTON...KEEPING MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
STUCK IN A COOL/CLOUDY PATTERN. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...CLOUDS WILL BLOCK MUCH OF THE SUN AGAIN TODAY AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. PERHAPS
A FEW SITES MAY TOUCH 60 DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. ELSEWHERE THE CONTINUED NORTHEAST/NORTH FLOW WILL KEEP THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF ILLINOIS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND
AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HAVE THE COOL MARINE AIR
KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI...A WEAKER SFC LOW
WILL BE SIMULTANEOUSLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO
CENTRAL IN. THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A MORE FORCED ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THAT SHOWERS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE VALLEY.
BEACHLER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
248 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A CLOUDY AND DREARY DAY IS ON TAP TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WITH LOW
CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG...AND DRIZZLE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW OVER
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-80 NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT THE OVERALL LIKELIHOOD
OF THUNDER IS LOW. THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST AROUND
MIDNIGHT OR SO WITH PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY TAPERING THEREAFTER.
BUMPED DOWN TEMPERATURES SOME FOR TODAY AND EXPECT FAIRLY SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY WITH NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS. LESS
PRECIP TODAY MIGHT HELP US WARM A LITTLE MORE BUT OVERCAST SKIES
AND MORNING FOG WILL INHIBIT INSOLATION AND MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
WARM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND
SEEING A LITTLE SUNSHINE THUS EXCEEDING TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS
BUT LEANING AGAINST THAT SCENARIO FOR NOW.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
203 PM CDT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ELONGATED MID-LVL TROUGH WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION LATE MON
NIGHT...HEADED FOR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A BROAD
SFC RIDGE TO SLIDE SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND ALSO STEADILY ERODE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP...HOWEVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWFA COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY MON EVE BEFORE
QUICKLY ENDING. WINDS WILL BE TURNING NORTHERLY BUT WITH THE WEAK
GRADIENT SPEEDS WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH...SO EXPECT THE EROSION OF
CLOUD COVER TO BE SLOW. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S...BUT A
FEW AREAS IN FAR NORTHERN IL COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING...SO
WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME FROM INCLUDING ANY MENTION OF FROST MON
NGT.
TUE WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE BROAD SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT WILL EXTEND EAST THROUGH THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
MID-LVL RIDGE LIFTING INTO WESTERN CANADA A LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL
DRIVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE AFTN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TUE NGT...WITH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES SOUTH LATE TUE. LAPSE RATES WILL
QUICKLY STEEPEN AS THE 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS AND SFC TEMPS
TUE AFTN WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO REMAIN
MARGINAL...HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE PRESENT THAT A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER COULD OCCUR LATE TUE/EARLY WED. HAVE PUSHED POPS
UP TO LIKELY TUE EVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FORTUNATELY ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE
PROGRESSIVE AND PUSH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FURTHER EAST BY EARLY
WED...WHICH SHOULD HELP EJECT THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WED MORNING AND BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT DRIER AIR COULD
ARRIVE BY EARLY WED AFTN. BUT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND THE 50S...AND AREAS AJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S WED AFTN. WED NGT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
ARRIVES WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPS...FALLING INTO THE MID/UPR 30S. AT THIS TIME HAVE HELD OFF ON
MENTION OF FROST BUT IF CLOUDS ERODE QUICKER WED EVE THEN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST IS PLAUSIBLE FOR AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NORTH OF I-80.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... LATEST ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS FEATURE
SLIDES EAST...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH THE FOCUS TURNING
TOWARDS THE MID-LVL TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
SAT/SUN. SIMULTANEOUSLY A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO...AND COULD LAYOUT A BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL QUICKLY MODERATE FROM THE
60S TO PERHAPS LOW 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN DEPENDING ON A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT SUN COULD SEE TEMPS BACK IN THE 60S.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
PRIMARY CONCERNS...
-IFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY DROPPING TO LIFR
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
-PERIOD OF SHRA EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EVE.
CIGS REMAINING IN IFR RANGE EARLY THIS AFERNOON...WITH LIFR CIGS
PERSISTING NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING KGYY. WITH
SOME WEAK MIXING AND A LITTLE DIURNAL WARMING...VIS HAS GENERALLY
IMPROVED TO VFR OR HIGHER END MVFR LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT
THAT CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LIFTING
TO HIGHER END IFR OR LOWER END MVFR. HOWEVER...SINCE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER PERSISTENT NELY FLOW AND WELL NORTH OF A SFC
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SRN IL/IN...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE TOMORROW WHEN THE SFC LOW
CURRENTLY OVER NRN MO FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND SOME DRIER
AIR CAN MOVE INTO THE REGION. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL
REMAIN PREVAILING NELY. CIGS/VIS SHOULD DROP AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS SHRA/RA SPREADS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SCF LOW TRACKS SLOWLY EWD. WITH THE
PCPN FALLING THROUGH THE STRATUS DECK...EXPECT THAT CIGS SHOULD
LOWER TO LIFR AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
253 AM CDT
A PERIOD OF MODERATELY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT
WILL PERSIST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY...EVENTUALLY BACKING MORE
NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AND REACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY
MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL THEN SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THIS LOW...AND ITS
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL TROUGH... WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS INITIALLY AS THE TROUGH AND
LOW APPROACH TUESDAY...SHIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS 25-30 KT AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ON THE SOUTH END OF THE
LAKE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL MONITOR AS WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL
EARLIER THAN CURRENT EXPIRATION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 1 AM
MONDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1256 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Made some updates to the forecast earlier this morning to drop
PoPs across the board during the morning and to go with mostly
sunny skies south of I-70. Latest visible satellite imagery
continues to show overcast conditions across much of the KILX CWA,
with areas south of I-70 still seeing plenty of sunshine. As a
result, a strong temperature gradient has developed across the
area...with readings ranging from the upper 40s far north around
Lacon to close to 70 degrees far southeast. HRRR suggests the
clouds will gradually thin this afternoon, but think this might be
too optimistic based on prevailing northeast flow north of frontal
boundary in the Ohio River Valley. As a result, will continue with
a mostly cloudy forecast across much of the area. As an upper low
currently over southern Iowa shears northeastward, scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon.
Think the best areal coverage of precip will remain focused
across the central and northern CWA, where high chance PoPs are
warranted. PoPs will decrease further southeast away from the
stronger forcing. Severe threat will remain minimal today, as
best forcing and strongest instability will not coincide anywhere
across the CWA. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the
lower 50s north of Peoria, to the lower to middle 70s south of
I-70.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016
A rather complex forecast exists across central and southeast
Illinois today, with many factors to consider. A nearly stationary
surface front cuts across the forecast area generally a little south
of, and nearly parallel to, the I-72 corridor. To the south of the
boundary, partly cloudy skies exist, with scattered convection to
the south of I-70. To the north of the boundary, extensive
fog/stratus exists, with visibilities significantly reduced in some
areas. The fog is most dense near the edge of the stratus, and
surface obs suggest a Dense Fog Advisory should be considered.
However, the cloud edge is slowly sinking to the south and this
would suggest that dense fog will not remain in any one location for
a significant period of time. Plan to hold off on Dense Fog Advisory
for now with this in mind, but will continue to monitor visibility
trends closely through sunrise.
Other main concern is the expected precipitation coverage today. A
broad northeast to southwest oriented upper-level trof stretches
across the lower 48 states, with several smaller scale upper lows
embedded within it. The feature we need to key in on today is the
upper low spinning over the central Plains. This feature is expected
to shear northeast into the Great Lakes region today. The forcing
associated with this weakening feature, and associated wave on the
surface front, will be our primary precipitation trigger. There is
currently very little on radar upstream, and expect the bulk of our
precipitation will occur through a combination of diurnal heating
and mid-level cooling with the approach of the upper low remnants.
This thinking supports scattered showers across the area by
afternoon, with a few thunderstorms also possible. The thunderstorms
should mostly occur along/south of the surface front. A few of the
storms along/south of I-70 may be strong given the modest
instability (CAPEs from 1000-2000 j/kg) and shear profiles (bulk
shear to 45 kts) anticipated by afternoon.
A significant N-S temperatures gradient is likely across the area
today with the surface front in the area. Daytime highs should range
from the mid 50s NW around Galesburg to mid 70s SE around
Lawrenceville.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Persistent upper troughing pattern expected over the eastern U.S.
much of the upcoming week, as a significant ridge builds west of the
Rockies. This will send lobes of cooler air southward into the Great
Lakes region, with 850 mb temperatures over our area dipping to
around zero Celsius on Tuesday, and Wednesday night through
Thursday. This should result in highs several degrees below normal
for early May. Late in the week, an omega blocking pattern will
evolve, although the latest runs of the ECMWF and GFS do show the
ridge edging eastward, bringing a significant warming trend for next
weekend.
Remnants of current upper low over Nebraska will drift eastward
early this week, and stretch out into a trough which will drop
toward the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. With these features around, it
will be difficult to eliminate mention of PoP`s. Have increased rain
chances to around 30% on Monday over the southeast CWA and went with
slight chances as far north as Bloomington and Havana, with the
threat diminishing with loss of daytime heating. With the trough
further south on Tuesday, slight chance PoP`s were kept over the
areas south of I-70. A more significant rain chance is expected late
Tuesday night into Wednesday, as a large upper low drops southward
into the Great Lakes. Have increased PoP`s to around 35-40% over the
eastern CWA on Wednesday. Rather significant cold pocket at 500 mb
will accompany this low, and would not be surprised to see some
isolated thunder. However, the coldest part of this will be tracking
into Indiana, so will hold off on any thunder mention for now. Dry
weather is expected late in the week, as high pressure dominates the
Mississippi Valley as the upper ridge arrives.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
IFR ceilings prevail at the central Illinois terminals early this
afternoon: however, latest visible satellite imagery is showing
an appreciable thinning of the overcast. HRRR has consistently
suggested ceilings rising into the MVFR category over the next
couple of hours and have followed this trend accordingly. Think
KPIA/KBMI will be the last sites to improve as cloud cover appears
thickest in this area. With partial sunshine breaking through and
an upper low providing modest synoptic lift, think scattered
showers/thunder will develop this afternoon/evening. Have included
VCTS to cover this possibility. Once daytime instability wanes,
any showers will come to an end after sunset. After that, the low
overcast will spread/develop back southward...with the HRRR
showing IFR ceilings back at all TAF sites between 04z and 06z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.UPDATE...
1044 AM CDT
UNFORTUNATELY IT APPEARS MOTHER NATURE HAS OPTED TO HIT THE PAUSE
BUTTON...KEEPING MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
STUCK IN A COOL/CLOUDY PATTERN. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...CLOUDS WILL BLOCK MUCH OF THE SUN AGAIN TODAY AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. PERHAPS
A FEW SITES MAY TOUCH 60 DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. ELSEWHERE THE CONTINUED NORTHEAST/NORTH FLOW WILL KEEP THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF ILLINOIS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND
AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HAVE THE COOL MARINE AIR
KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI...A WEAKER SFC LOW
WILL BE SIMULTANEOUSLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO
CENTRAL IN. THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A MORE FORCED ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THAT SHOWERS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE VALLEY.
BEACHLER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
248 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A CLOUDY AND DREARY DAY IS ON TAP TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WITH LOW
CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG...AND DRIZZLE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW OVER
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-80 NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT THE OVERALL LIKELIHOOD
OF THUNDER IS LOW. THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST AROUND
MIDNIGHT OR SO WITH PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY TAPERING THEREAFTER.
BUMPED DOWN TEMPERATURES SOME FOR TODAY AND EXPECT FAIRLY SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY WITH NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS. LESS
PRECIP TODAY MIGHT HELP US WARM A LITTLE MORE BUT OVERCAST SKIES
AND MORNING FOG WILL INHIBIT INSOLATION AND MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
WARM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND
SEEING A LITTLE SUNSHINE THUS EXCEEDING TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS
BUT LEANING AGAINST THAT SCENARIO FOR NOW.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
248 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONTINENT TO START NEXT WEEK...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES SOUTH OF I-80 ON MONDAY...FAVORED DIURNALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
INVERSION/ISOTHERMAL LAYER BASED AROUND 800 MB MONDAY SO THERE
ISNT MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE GROWTH...AND SUSPECT GFS
IS OVERPRODUCING QPF. WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 60.
ON TUESDAY...WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AS TRANSIENT MID
LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TUESDAY
INDICATE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME DIURNAL CU
GROWTH...THOUGH WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING OVER THE AREA WILL NOT
MENTION ANY POPS AT THIS TIME EVEN THOUGH THERMODYNAMICALLY
TUESDAY LOOKS BETTER FOR PRODUCING PRECIP THAN MONDAY. MODELS ARE
BACKING OFF ON TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE DEEP
MIXING STILL EXPECTED. TEMPS ALOFT NOW APPEAR TO ONLY SUPPORT LOW
TO MID 60S SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MORE UNSETTLED AND COOLER
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
WAVE TOPPING THE STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL DISLODGE A COLD AIRMASS SET TO ARRIVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS
CONTINUES TO RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE ECMWF THOUGH BOTH MODELS
WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE ONLY IN THE 40S. WILL CONTINUE
TO NUDGE DOWNWARD FROM THE STARTING POINT OF OUR GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS BLEND WHICH STILL APPEARS TOO WARM...HOWEVER ANTICIPATE
FURTHER DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO TEMPS IF TRENDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS HOLD. THERE REMAIN SOME MODEST TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES...BUT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
DIURNAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN.
FOR THOSE HOPING FOR MORE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS TO RETURN...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL INCH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. IF
ECMWF/GFS PROJECTIONS HOLD...WE WILL BE WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S
SATURDAY POSSIBLY PUSHING THE 80 MARK IN SOME AREAS.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
PRIMARY CONCERNS...
-IFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY DROPPING TO LIFR
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
-PERIOD OF SHRA EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EVE.
CIGS REMAINING IN IFR RANGE EARLY THIS AFERNOON...WITH LIFR CIGS
PERSISTING NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING KGYY. WITH
SOME WEAK MIXING AND A LITTLE DIURNAL WARMING...VIS HAS GENERALLY
IMPROVED TO VFR OR HIGHER END MVFR LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT
THAT CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LIFTING
TO HIGHER END IFR OR LOWER END MVFR. HOWEVER...SINCE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER PERSISTENT NELY FLOW AND WELL NORTH OF A SFC
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SRN IL/IN...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE TOMORROW WHEN THE SFC LOW
CURRENTLY OVER NRN MO FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND SOME DRIER
AIR CAN MOVE INTO THE REGION. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL
REMAIN PREVAILING NELY. CIGS/VIS SHOULD DROP AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS SHRA/RA SPREADS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SCF LOW TRACKS SLOWLY EWD. WITH THE
PCPN FALLING THROUGH THE STRATUS DECK...EXPECT THAT CIGS SHOULD
LOWER TO LIFR AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
253 AM CDT
A PERIOD OF MODERATELY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT
WILL PERSIST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY...EVENTUALLY BACKING MORE
NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AND REACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY
MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL THEN SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THIS LOW...AND ITS
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL TROUGH... WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS INITIALLY AS THE TROUGH AND
LOW APPROACH TUESDAY...SHIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS 25-30 KT AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ON THE SOUTH END OF THE
LAKE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL MONITOR AS WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL
EARLIER THAN CURRENT EXPIRATION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 1 AM
MONDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1102 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Made some updates to the forecast earlier this morning to drop
PoPs across the board during the morning and to go with mostly
sunny skies south of I-70. Latest visible satellite imagery
continues to show overcast conditions across much of the KILX CWA,
with areas south of I-70 still seeing plenty of sunshine. As a
result, a strong temperature gradient has developed across the
area...with readings ranging from the upper 40s far north around
Lacon to close to 70 degrees far southeast. HRRR suggests the
clouds will gradually thin this afternoon, but think this might be
too optimistic based on prevailing northeast flow north of frontal
boundary in the Ohio River Valley. As a result, will continue with
a mostly cloudy forecast across much of the area. As an upper low
currently over southern Iowa shears northeastward, scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon.
Think the best areal coverage of precip will remain focused
across the central and northern CWA, where high chance PoPs are
warranted. PoPs will decrease further southeast away from the
stronger forcing. Severe threat will remain minimal today, as
best forcing and strongest instability will not coincide anywhere
across the CWA. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the
lower 50s north of Peoria, to the lower to middle 70s south of
I-70.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016
A rather complex forecast exists across central and southeast
Illinois today, with many factors to consider. A nearly stationary
surface front cuts across the forecast area generally a little south
of, and nearly parallel to, the I-72 corridor. To the south of the
boundary, partly cloudy skies exist, with scattered convection to
the south of I-70. To the north of the boundary, extensive
fog/stratus exists, with visibilities significantly reduced in some
areas. The fog is most dense near the edge of the stratus, and
surface obs suggest a Dense Fog Advisory should be considered.
However, the cloud edge is slowly sinking to the south and this
would suggest that dense fog will not remain in any one location for
a significant period of time. Plan to hold off on Dense Fog Advisory
for now with this in mind, but will continue to monitor visibility
trends closely through sunrise.
Other main concern is the expected precipitation coverage today. A
broad northeast to southwest oriented upper-level trof stretches
across the lower 48 states, with several smaller scale upper lows
embedded within it. The feature we need to key in on today is the
upper low spinning over the central Plains. This feature is expected
to shear northeast into the Great Lakes region today. The forcing
associated with this weakening feature, and associated wave on the
surface front, will be our primary precipitation trigger. There is
currently very little on radar upstream, and expect the bulk of our
precipitation will occur through a combination of diurnal heating
and mid-level cooling with the approach of the upper low remnants.
This thinking supports scattered showers across the area by
afternoon, with a few thunderstorms also possible. The thunderstorms
should mostly occur along/south of the surface front. A few of the
storms along/south of I-70 may be strong given the modest
instability (CAPEs from 1000-2000 j/kg) and shear profiles (bulk
shear to 45 kts) anticipated by afternoon.
A significant N-S temperatures gradient is likely across the area
today with the surface front in the area. Daytime highs should range
from the mid 50s NW around Galesburg to mid 70s SE around
Lawrenceville.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Persistent upper troughing pattern expected over the eastern U.S.
much of the upcoming week, as a significant ridge builds west of the
Rockies. This will send lobes of cooler air southward into the Great
Lakes region, with 850 mb temperatures over our area dipping to
around zero Celsius on Tuesday, and Wednesday night through
Thursday. This should result in highs several degrees below normal
for early May. Late in the week, an omega blocking pattern will
evolve, although the latest runs of the ECMWF and GFS do show the
ridge edging eastward, bringing a significant warming trend for next
weekend.
Remnants of current upper low over Nebraska will drift eastward
early this week, and stretch out into a trough which will drop
toward the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. With these features around, it
will be difficult to eliminate mention of PoP`s. Have increased rain
chances to around 30% on Monday over the southeast CWA and went with
slight chances as far north as Bloomington and Havana, with the
threat diminishing with loss of daytime heating. With the trough
further south on Tuesday, slight chance PoP`s were kept over the
areas south of I-70. A more significant rain chance is expected late
Tuesday night into Wednesday, as a large upper low drops southward
into the Great Lakes. Have increased PoP`s to around 35-40% over the
eastern CWA on Wednesday. Rather significant cold pocket at 500 mb
will accompany this low, and would not be surprised to see some
isolated thunder. However, the coldest part of this will be tracking
into Indiana, so will hold off on any thunder mention for now. Dry
weather is expected late in the week, as high pressure dominates the
Mississippi Valley as the upper ridge arrives.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016
IFR or lower aviation weather conditions expected through the
bulk of the 12Z TAF valid time. Some improvement to MVFR is
possible at KSPI, KDEC, and KCMI this afternoon through diurnal
mixing, but IFR conditions should quickly return tonight. While
the coverage is not expected to be great, scattered showers/storms
are likely this afternoon as an upper level disturbance passes
through the area and diurnal heating is maximized.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1241 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.UPDATE...
746 PM CDT
STEADIER RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERY DEVELOPMENT OR DRIZZLE STILL
LINGERING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. WHILE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
REMAIN PRESENT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
JUST TO THE WEST...ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LIKELY AID IN EITHER
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. SO HAVE MAINTAINED
CAT/LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING AND THEN LOWER TO CHANCE WORDING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS EITHER HOLDING NEARLY STEADY OR SHOWING A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...
146 PM CDT
THROUGH SUNDAY...
COOL/CLOUDY/MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN THIS AFTERNOON. IR IMAGERY HAD INITIALLY INDICATED
CLOUD TOPS WERE BETWEEN -60 TO -65 DEG C...BUT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN QUICKLY WARMING WITH TOPS NOW BETWEEN -50
TO -55 DEG C. IN ADDITION A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ARRIVED OVER NORTHERN IL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 10-15KT
AND GUSTS AROUND 20KT. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH A BROAD RIDGE POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO IT IS
LIKELY THAT THE LOW WILL STALL FROM LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STEADIER PRECIP TO SHIFT NORTH AND END
LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE BAGGY ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SHALLOW MOISTURE FEED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
CONSIDERABLY LOWER CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF A LIFT WILL
KEEP DROPLET SIZE MINIMAL AND LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE/LGT
RAIN. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY NOT CHANGE MUCH...WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S.
WITH THE BROAD SFC RIDGE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH...THIS WILL KEEP
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM LIFTING TOO FAR NORTH TOWARDS THE
CWFA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE 500MB VORT MAX WILL BE
UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA TO STAR THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THIS
FEATURE PIVOTS NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL...FORCING WILL RETURN
WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF I-80 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST FLOW
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS AGAIN SUN AFTN IN THE
40S FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE LAKE...MEANWHILE FURTHER INLAND
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWFA THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LINGERING NEARBY
WITH TEMPS NEARING THE LOW 60S.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
243 PM CDT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY
LINGERING PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
NRN IL/NWRN IN WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEAK...BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
GENERALLY NELY FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION VERY
LIMITED AND BY THE TIME A WEAK ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA...ANY CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE MINIMAL AND...FOR NOW...WILL
ONLY CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR SERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA ON MONDAY. ALSO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION...WITH STRONG RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPING
OVER THE ERN CONUS. WHILE THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
DIFFERENCES IN THE FINER SCALE DETAILS...IN PARTICULAR THE SPEED OF
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. CONSEQUENTLY...THE TRACK OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING SEWD DOWN THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE IS DIFFERENT ENOUGH THAT THE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
LONGER TERM FORECAST RAPIDLY DETERIORATES WITH TIME FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SO...IN GENERAL...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
CHANGEABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEAK...ESPECIALLY TEMPERATURES. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE PERIODS OF
SEASONABLE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK...
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS LOW.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
06Z TAF CONCERNS ARE PRIMARILY
-PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
-IFR VSBY IN DZ/BR AT TIMES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
-PERIOD OF SHRA SUNDAY EVENING WITH LOWER CIGS.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF IFR/LIFR CIGS OF 300-700 FT HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE THIS EVENING.
OBS TRENDS INDICATE FURTHER LOWERING INTO SOLID LIFR 300-400 FT
LIKELY FOR ALL TAF SITES NEXT FEW HOURS WITH PERSISTENT DRIZZLE
INTO SATURATED AIR MASS NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS
CENTRAL IL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SOME MARGINAL
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL LIKELY SERVE TO LOWER CIGS TO
IFR/POSSIBLY LIFR AGAIN. LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED TSRA EXISTS
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS WELL...THOUGH GREATEST POTENTIAL SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL SITES. SOLID IMPROVEMENT IN CIG
CONDITIONS/LOW LEVEL DRYING IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF GENERALLY 10-15 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
255 PM CDT
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WHILE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY TRACKS TO THE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL IL/IN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL KEEP PERSISTENT
ELY-NELY FLOW OVER THE LAKE. WINDS AND WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE IL NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A MODERATE ELY-NELY PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY
QUIET CONDITIONS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN ON TUESDAY WHILE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES BY MIDWEEK AS THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SHOULD BRING STRENGTHENING NWLY-NLY FLOW TO
THE LAKE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
POINT...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE...BUT IF THE COLD
ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT ARE
STRONG ENOUGH...THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 1 AM
MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1151 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016
Surface low this evening is located just northwest of St. Louis
and expected to move slowly east or ESE overnight...arriving near
Lawrenceville by dawn. An instability axis around 1000 J/KG CAPE
extending from near th low center southward resulted in several
severe thunderstorms from near the Quincy area through the St.
Louis area with over 1 inch hail. Nevertheless, these storms have
remained just outside the central IL forecast area and will
continue to skirt the edges of this forecast area from Near the
Jacksonville area to Shelbyville to Effingham and southward. A
line of thunderstorms east of the St. Louis metro area currently
looks to arrive in Effingham and Clay Counties around 10 p.m.
however nocturnal stabilization may trend these storms sub-severe
by that point. Updates this evening have been for short term radar
trends on thunderstorm coverage. Otherwise, forecast looks in good
shape with lows ranging from the upper 40s in Galesburg and Peoria
to the Upper 50s south of I-70. Showers and thunderstorms will
decrease late in the night with the low shifting
eastward...although showers may arrive by early morning northwest
of the Illinois River.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows 1004mb low over northern Missouri,
with warm front extending E/SE into southern Illinois. After being
nearly stationary for much of the day, the front is slowly lifting
northward and should eventually stall between the I-72 and I-70
corridors this evening. Most of the steady rain from earlier has
pushed into northern Illinois, leaving behind only isolated showers
across the KILX CWA this afternoon. Will be watching locations near
and south of the warm front where latest LAPS data is showing
SBCAPES of 1000-1500J/kg across Missouri into the Ozarks. Visible
satellite imagery is beginning to show the first signs of convective
development from just west of St. Louis southward into Arkansas.
HRRR suggests scattered thunderstorms will develop within this
corridor over the next couple of hours, then will spread E/NE into
portions of central Illinois tonight. Based on expected position of
front and latest HRRR forecast, think the best storm chances will
remain across the southern half of the CWA through the evening
hours, with any convection pushing further east into Indiana by
midnight. With surface low pressure tracking into the area and
winds becoming light/variable, think fog will become an issue later
tonight within the very moist low-level airmass. While MET/MAV
guidance only show minor reductions in visby, the HRRR is much more
bullish with the fog, particularly near the expected position of the
front. Have therefore included areas of fog in the forecast for all
locations north of I-70, with patchy fog further south into the warm
sector.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016
Morning upper air and satellite imagery showed spinning upper closed
low over northeast CO-southwest NE. Models in good agreement on
drifting it to the east overnight, which should provide upper
support for instability showers over region on Sunday. For
overnight, best instability in area of MO where CAPE values have
increased due to cloud break up this afternoon. Expect storm
development still possible in along and south of warm frontal zone,
then pcpn moving north into central IL region. Pcpn should remain
elevated, as cold dome north of front has been reinforced by
rainfall today, so only marginal risk of severe, with mainly hail
threat in a few stronger storms.
Upper system drifts through on Sunday, with scattered showers
triggered. Pcpn break Sunday night, then a second upper wave moves
through that will trigger slight chance of showers over parts of
area.
Upper flow becomes northwesterly into midweek, with a minor wave
moving through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Instability showers
again possible with cool air aloft with this wave. Temperatures
through next week with be generally cool and below normal.
Surface low expected to track northeast across the region this
evening, reaching northeast Indiana by midnight, although the GFS is
quite a bit slower with this scenario. General thought is that the
steadier showers will be quickly diminishing this evening, with a
good portion of the overnight hours dry. However, the remnants of
the upper low currently along the Colorado/Kansas border will move
across southern Iowa Sunday morning and across Illinois in the
afternoon, bringing another period of scattered showers to the area
by midday. Have included isolated thunder mention in the afternoon
most areas, as the trough moves overhead. Any lingering showers
should be out of the area around sunset.
Highly amplified pattern expected next week, as upper level ridging
over the western U.S. builds well into British Columbia and Alberta.
Longer range models showing some differences with the extent of the
corresponding upper trough over the eastern half of the CONUS, with
the ECMWF on the deeper side. This would trend toward significantly
cooler conditions over the Midwest during the second half of the
work week. By the end of the week, the upper pattern on both the GFS
and ECMWF models trends toward an omega block type configuration
which would linger the cooler air even longer. Have trended downward
on the temperatures for late in the week, although not as low as the
blended raw model guidance at this point.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016
A region of predominantly LIFR ceilings and areas of fog is
currently settling slowly southward across central IL according to
surface observations and satellite imagery. Low pressure
translating eastward across southern IL will continue to draw the
region southward through the night. Some improvement expected by
late morning as daytime heating occurs. An upper low off to the
west will cross over the area late in the afternoon developing
scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm as well.
Included VCTS at KPIA-KBMI closer to the upper level cold pool of
this feature, but otherwise probabilites appear to low to include
at this point.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
240 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
WITH PRECIP ONGOING...RAISED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO BLENDED
OBS INTO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1048 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
MADE ONE LAST UPDATE TO MAKE SURE THE ONGOING PRECIP WAS WELL
DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS TO TWEAK WHAT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AS WAS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...EVEN
HI RES MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING THE ONGOING
PRECIP AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE OVERALL...SO WENT WITH A MIX OF
OFFICIAL...HRRR...AND HAND TWEEKS TO COME UP WITH EXPECTED
SCENARIO. WE ARE CONTINUING TO SEE A DIMINISHMENT OF RAIN RATES
ACROSS EASTERN KY...SO PROBABLY NOT SEEING MUCH IN CLOUD LIGHTNING
AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...RAIN RATES COULD INCREASE...AND A FEW
HEAVIER SHOWERS TO OUR SW MAY MAKE IT INTO THE CWA...SO KEPT
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS A PRECAUTION.
IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIP UPDATE...ALSO MADE SURE THE TEMPS...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS WERE WELL IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB...THOUGH
CHANGES SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY FURTHER
ZFP UPDATES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 855 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL INTO EASTERN KY FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTH AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE STATE. MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD DEVELOPED TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING
HAVE SINCE WEAKENED AND ARE NOW JUST HEAVY SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WOULDN/T RULE OUT SOME STRAY THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOME OF
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS EASTERN KY
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT...TRIED TO BASE NEAR
TERM UPDATED GRIDS ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THEN BLENDED BACK
INTO THE HIRES MODELS THAT SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT SITUATION. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
ANOTHER HEAVIER BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KY AND MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE EVENING IN
CASE ANY FURTHER UPDATES NEED TO BE MADE.
THE OTHER MAIN CHANGE CAME WITH TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN...WE HAVE ACTUALLY REMAINED COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECASTED. THIS RESULTED IN NOT ONLY SOME TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT
TEMPS...BUT ALSO FOR THE DIURNAL CURVE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. AS IT STANDS...WE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH OF A
DROP DURING THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...SO ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES
OF VARIATION FROM THE CURRENT ONGOING TEMPS.
ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB. A NEW FORECAST
PACKAGE WAS ALSO SENT OUT TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
UNFORTUNATELY MODELS...EVEN HI RES...DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KY...TN...AND POINTS
SURROUNDING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AN UPDATE
TO POPS AND WEATHER WAS DEEMED NECESSARY. AND MAY BE AGAIN IN THE
NEAR FUTURE DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE NOW
DEVELOPED TO OUR SOUTH. TRIED TO USE THE BEST HI RES MODEL BLEND
AS A STARTING POINT AND THEN HAND TWEAKED GRIDS TO GET DESIRED
POP TREND. ALSO...CHANGED PROBABILITY WORDING TO COVERAGE WORDING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SINCE PRECIP IS ONGOING. ALL CHANGES HAVE
BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB...AND NEW FORECAST ZONES WERE SENT
OUT AS WELL TO ADDRESS THE CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. AS THIS AREA LIFTS THROUGH
TO THE NORTHEAST...A BREAK IN THE RAIN WILL OCCUR. AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES AND THE FRONT SHIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA...SOME
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHILE SOME PONDING ON ROADS ARE
POSSIBLE...THE AREA IS FULLY GREENED UP AND WITH PWATS ONLY
REACHING JUST BELOW THE 2ND STANDARD DEVIATION...WILL NOT EXPECT
ANY FLOODING ISSUES TONIGHT. CONCERNING THE STRONG STORM
THREAT...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...JUST ENOUGH FORCING AND
SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR POSSIBLY A STRONG STORM OR TWO. IN
FACT TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS TEMPS ONLY DROP BACK INTO THE LOW 60S.
FOR SUNDAY...AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND INTO THE OH VALLEY...ANOTHER INSTANCE OF STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH EAST KENTUCKY BEING IN THE WARM
SECTOR...THE CAP OVER THE AREA WILL BE A BIT STOUT. HEADING INTO
THE DAY ON SUNDAY...IF INSTABILITY IS ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP AND
CAN OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL DRY AREA...SOME STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE THREAT. HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT OVER THE
EAST WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THAT WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE MODELS ALL HAVE A LARGE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DIVING OUT OF CANADA AND BASICALLY
SPINNING IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH OUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY AND TOMORROW...WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE THAT SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST...A MUCH
LARGER AND MORE WELL DEVELOPED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MULTIPLE
SHORT WAVES WILL MIGRATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL BRING US PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
WEEK. THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT PRESENT ANY MAJOR
ISSUES. WE WILL JUST BE IN STORE FOR A DAMP AND CLOUDY WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RUN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL AS THE TROUGH PULLS COOL MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. DAY
TIME HIGHS WILL VARY FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE RAINIEST
PERIODS...TO AROUND 70 ON THE LESS RAINY LESS CLOUDY DAYS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OVER THE REGION IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WERE BRINGING
LOCALIZED MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WERE
STILL VFR. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL PRECIP TAPERS OFF
AND VFR RETURNS EVERYWHERE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE GENERAL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
ABOUT 09Z AND 13Z. THIS SHOULD LEAVE A FAIRLY QUIET START TO THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AS HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
OCCUR...REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION/UNCERTAINTY IS
INITIATION OF CONVECTION AND THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE. STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1205 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/06Z TAFS...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS LOCATED FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KMNE...TO BETWEEN KLFK AND KJAS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE ROBUST
AND HAS PERSISTED ACROSS SRN AR BUT HAS STRUGGLED FARTHER SOUTH.
ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS THE WEAK FRONT ADVANCES SEWD AND BECOMES DIFFUSE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IMPACTS AT THE TAF SITES SO NO MENTION OF
PRECIP WAS INCLUDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE. LOW CIGS AND
FOG...INCLUDING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY 01/18Z. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
ROUND OF PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING
THE LAST FEW HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD. /09/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/
DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ESE THIS
EVENING...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR A MWT...TO TXK...TO JUST E OF
ASL...TO LFK AND CXO LINE AS OF 0230Z. DID SEE A FEW TOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH JUST W OF SHV SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNSET...WITH EVEN A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHRA HAVING RECENTLY
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BNDRY IN SE CASS COUNTY TX...AS WELL AS OVER
TXK. THE SHORT TERM PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS BNDRY EASING A
BIT FARTHER SE INTO THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY AND NCNTRL LA
BEFORE PULLING UP STATIONARY LATE...WITH ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY
WIDELY SCT CONVECTION REDEVELOPING ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE BNDRY
WHERE THE AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO POPS TONIGHT...AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS. CAN/T
RULE OUT PATCHY FG DEVELOPING LATE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OVER DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA...BUT WITH THE CURRENT CU FIELD AND
EVENTUALLY THE LOW STRATUS THAT SHOULD FORM LATE...AS WELL AS ANY
CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP...WILL NOT ADD IT TO THE FORECAST
ATTM.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES
ARE NEEDED THIS EVENING.
15
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/
DISCUSSION...
THE EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC TROUGH/PSEUDO-FRONT
EXTENDING IN A N-S LINE FROM EXTREME WRN AR S TO NEAR DEQ...TO
JUST E OF GGG...TO NEAR A LFK AND CXO LINE. SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND A WALK OUTSIDE IN THE PARKING LOT REVEALS A FLAT CU
FIELD IN PLACE...DESPITE THE STRONG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
AFTER TEMPS RECOVERED WELL INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S WITHIN THE HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A BROAD SLUG OF
DRY AIR WRAPPING N AND E ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW OVER SW NE/NW KS...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP LYR
FORCING THIS FAR S OF THE CLOSED LOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IN PLACE AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT NEAR/JUST E OF THE SFC TROUGH AS IT DRIFTS
ESE INTO THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY AND NCNTRL LA LATE BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS AND THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR ARE NOT VERY BULLISH AT ALL WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
NEAR/E OF THE TROUGH...THUS HAVE SCALED BACK POPS TONIGHT FOR
THESE AREAS. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA...AS THE FLOOD THREAT
HAS ENDED.
THE SFC TROUGH WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AS IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK N ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA SUCH THAT FLOODING
SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT
THESE AREAS DID NOT SEE AS MUCH RAIN AS AREAS FARTHER TO THE N
ACROSS NW LA/SW AR/MUCH OF E TX/SE OK. DID TONE DOWN POPS JUST A
TAD FOR THE FAR SRN ZONES...WITH THE GREATER COVERAGE IN
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST S OF THE REGION OVER SE
TX/CNTRL/SRN LA.
DID NOT ADJUST THE MIN TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL RE-
EVALUATE DURING THE MID-EVENING DISCUSSION.
ZONE UPDATE/WATCH CANCELLATION ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 66 82 64 75 / 20 20 70 70
MLU 69 84 66 74 / 30 30 70 80
DEQ 56 79 56 71 / 20 10 70 50
TXK 62 80 59 71 / 20 10 70 60
ELD 63 81 61 72 / 20 20 70 70
TYR 62 81 60 72 / 10 20 60 60
GGG 63 81 61 73 / 10 20 70 60
LFK 69 82 66 77 / 20 40 70 70
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1159 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE POTENTIAL NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS ALREADY
DEVELOPING OVER LOWER ACADIANA...AFFECTING THE SERN TERMINALS BY
06Z. LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING FURTHER
WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IMPACTING MAINLY KLCH/MAYBE
KBPT FIRST BEFORE REACHING KAEX LATER. MEANWHILE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS STILL SHOW THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IN BETTER CONFINEMENT
WITH THE LINGERING FRONT...AGAIN IMPACTING THE SERN SITES MORE
THAN THE OTHERS. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN SO
MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/
UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKING OF POPS OVER THE AREA. LATEST MODEL
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ACADIANA POTENTIAL HIGHEST AREA-WIDE
AND HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS THERE. DID TRIM DOWN POPS
SLIGHTLY ELSEWHERE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
LOWER CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SFC
OBS REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS NOW STARTING TO PREVAIL. CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIFR VALUES EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK...ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY MOST
IMPACTING KLFT/KARA STARTING AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND LINGERING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/
DISCUSSION...A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH ALONG
THE OF THE LARGER LOW. MOST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE HAS EXITED THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTH LA. SOME MODELS
INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE TAIL END OF THIS MCS AND CONTINUE INTO LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING.
ALSO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED IN EAST TX AND THIS MAY
DRIFT INTO OR NEAR THE EAST TX LAKES AREA EARLY SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY,
WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED SOIL AND FULL RIVERS, BAYOUS, AND
DITCHES THE FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED INTO MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
NEXT MCS MAY AFFECT THE AREA.
THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY ENDING
THE RAINFALL AND USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK.
MARINE...TIDE LEVELS ARE FALLING ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER TIDES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS MAY PUSH TIDES BACK TO AROUND 3 FEET MLLW AT HIGH TIDE MID
DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. A SLOW DECREASE IN TIDES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH A BETTER FALL AFTER THE FRONT
TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 69 82 68 77 / 30 60 50 80
LCH 71 81 71 79 / 40 60 50 80
LFT 71 82 74 80 / 60 70 40 80
BPT 70 83 71 80 / 30 60 60 80
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
052>055-073-074.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ041-052>054-
073-074.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
259>262.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ215-216.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
734 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN MANITOBA INTO
THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO NRN
MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY HAS BROUGHT LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE TO UPPER
MI WITH INLAND CU INLAND WEST AND NEAR LAKE MI OVER THE EAST.
TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE SE LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NRN ONTARIO. ADVANCING WAA MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING FROM DEVELOPING SW
GRADIENT WIND BETWEEN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING TROUGH
SHOULD ALLOW FALLING TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN CLIMB TOWARD
SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
CENTRAL AND EAST. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE 40 NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WEST.
TUESDAY...THE VIGOROUS NRN MANITOBA SHRTWV TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INTO THE NRN LAKES BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH
THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 250-300 MB JET. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE
200-400 J/KG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT
SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE CNTRL
AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES... TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES INTO THE
25-35 PCT RANGE WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z WED THAT
DIGS SOUTHWARD ON WED AND DIGS A DEEP TROUGH THAT AFFECTS THE EAST
COAST 00Z FRI. THE NAM TAKES SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE CWA 00Z WED AND MOVES IT OUT ON WED.
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL AND WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES. DID KEEP PCPN
IN FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AND STILL LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL. KEPT IT
DRY FOR WED NIGHT AND THEN LOOKED LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SLIGHT
POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR THU MORNING.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 500 MB TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS
AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS 12Z FRI. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES 12Z FRI THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE
AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT AND MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
ON MON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITION BELOW
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO
20 KNOTS. AS RIDGE SAGS SE TONIGHT...WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME
N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH WINDS TO
LESS THAN 20KT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
430 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A REX BLOCK OVER WRN NOAM
RESULTING IN WEAK NW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING N TO NE
WINDS INTO MOST OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WAS WEAK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. VIS LOOP
SHOWED CU OVER THE INLAND WEST AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREA IN
THE E HALF.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO UPPER MI WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WEST
AND TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER THE REST OF THE CWA.
MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHRTWV
REMAINING WELL TO THE SE OVER THE ERN LAKES. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL
AGAIN ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR
BREEZE REACHING THE FARTHEST INLAND. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MI 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH CU DEVELPMENT SIMILAR TO TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
THROUGH THE WEEK...RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF VARYING
AMPLITUDE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF CANADA WITH
HEIGHT ANOMALIES PEAKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL IN
TURN FAVOR TROFFING OVER ERN N AMERICA WITH THE TROF REACHING PEAK
AMPLITUDE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...ENERGY
APPROACHING THE W COAST WILL SPLIT...RESULTING IN DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER SW CONUS CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW LATER THIS WEEK. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE UPPER LAKES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PEAKING WRN CANADA RIDGE...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE FORCED
TO DROP FARTHER S INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE/WED WITH COLD
FROPA OCCURRING TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS FROPA BRINGS THE BEST CHC OF
PCPN THIS WEEK. WITH DECENT FORCING...POPS AT LEAST INTO THE HIGH
CHC TO LOW LIKELY CATEGORY APPEAR REASONABLE FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING.
DECENT FORCING/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND A LITTLE
INSTABILITY WITH FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. DEPENDING ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE MID LEVEL TROF
BECOMES...SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY LINGER INTO WED. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
RUNS YESTERDAY TRENDED TOWARD MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPMENT CLOSE ENOUGH
TO UPPER MI TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PCPN ON WED. SINCE THEN...
GUIDANCE HAS WAIVERED ON THIS IDEA. WILL LARGELY MAINTAIN CONTINUITY
WITH PREVIOUS FCST IN SHOWING SCHC POPS (CHC ACROSS THE NCNTRL AND
E) INTO WED MORNING. IF THERE IS ANY PCPN...MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AS THERMAL TROF WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-4C WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. 00Z/12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE WRN CANADA RIDGE WILL PASS
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO SAT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES. ALTHOUGH THIS A NEW DEVELOPMENT WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE 12Z RUNS BACK UP THE POSSIBILITY. AS A RESULT..SCHC
TO LOW CHC POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR SAT.
AS FOR TEMPS...THE PATTERN THIS WEEK FAVORS NORMAL TO BLO NORMAL
TEMPS FOR UPPER MI ON THE MAJORITY OF DAYS. NIGHTTIME MINS WILL
STILL BE DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE INTERIOR ON AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS. TUE WILL BE ONE OF THE WARMER DAYS AS W TO SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WHICH ARRIVES IN
THE AFTN/EVENING. WARMTH ON TUE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT/CLOUD COVER AND SHRA...BUT RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S. MUCH COOLER WEATHER...
ESPECIALLY NOTABLE CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FOLLOW FOR WED
UNDER BRISK N WINDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK SOLIDLY BLO NORMAL WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR NO HIGHER THAN AROUND 40F. EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WITH 850MB THERMAL TROF OVER THE AREA...
FURTHER SUPPORTING COOL CONDITIONS. MODERATION WILL OCCUR THU WITH
MORE WARMING FRI AND POSSIBLY ON INTO SAT...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. RECENT
GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE INDICATED THAT FRI AND/OR SAT COULD BE QUITE
WARM WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. WILL TURN COOLER AGAIN
FOR SUN. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...NAEFS OUTLOOKS ARE SUGGESTING A
TREND TOWARD AN OVERALL SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMP REGIME DURING THE
SECOND WEEK OF MAY.
EVEN IF MOST AREAS SEE SOME PCPN TUE...AMOUNTS WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT
AND WON`T REALLY AFFECT WHAT IS BECOMING AN EXTENDED DRY SPELL FOR
UPPER MI. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY COOL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT...WILL KEEP GREENUP SLOW. THUS...FIRE WX WILL BE AN ISSUE AT
TIMES FOR THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. THIS WEEK...TUE STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
DAY OF MOST CONCERN AS IT SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY WITH POTENTIAL OF
BREEZY W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS/-SHRA ARRIVE SOONER...FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE EASED. IF THE
COLD FRONT MATERIALIZES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER DAY WITH ELEVATED
FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL OCCUR ON THE DAY PRIOR TO ITS PASSAGE OR THE
DAY OF FROPA...EITHER FRI OR SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 20 KNOTS. WSW
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
411 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A REX BLOCK OVER WRN NOAM
RESULTING IN WEAK NW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING N TO NE
WINDS INTO MOST OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WAS WEAK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. VIS LOOP
SHOWED CU OVER THE INLAND WEST AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREA IN
THE E HALF.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO UPPER MI WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WEST
AND TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER THE REST OF THE CWA.
MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHRTWV
REMAINING WELL TO THE SE OVER THE ERN LAKES. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL
AGAIN ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR
BREEZE REACHING THE FARTHEST INLAND. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MI 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH CU DEVELPMENT SIMILAR TO TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
MONDAY...A DECAYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TRACKING SE ACROSS THE CWA ON
MONDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS INLAND. SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LIGHT PRECIP
INLAND ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTHS
AND HIGH BASES SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP FORMATION.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
SSE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING LEFT EXIT
OF AN UPPER JET WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN PLAYER FOR PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AN
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FAVOR A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROPA...ALLOWING FOR SOME DIURNAL
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THIS DIURNAL ASSISTANCE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO NUMEROUS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT. LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH LCL HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ANY DECENT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT A FEW RUMBLES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY HAS ALSO HAD THE FOCUS OF FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. BY THEN...THE ENTIRE CWA WILL HAVE HAD A WEEK OF DRYING SINCE
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLY LAST WEEK. DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTS TEMPS
INTO THE 60S INLAND AND MIN RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT.
ADDITIONALLY...WEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20MPH LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS ALL SUPPORT INCREASED WILDFIRE
DANGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
FACTORS MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST WOULD BE AN EARLY ARRIVAL
OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. THE SECOND IS AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL END FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING. THEN...WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE IN CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW FOR MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH LATE WED NIGHT. PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS AND N TO NW WINDS FAVOR A CHILLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
UPPER MI...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY FAILING TO REACH 40 EAST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY WHILE THE MID-WEEK TROUGH MERGES WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO FORM DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS...WITH POSSIBLY
SOME CLOUD COVER EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 20 KNOTS. WSW
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...- NONE -
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...- NONE -
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1234 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. DEFORMATION BAND STRETCHES ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. PRECIP TYPE GENERALLY RAIN EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83 THEN A MIX OR A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW TO THE WEST OF
83. TEMPS HAVE HELD FAIRLY STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40...HOWEVER THE LAST HOUR HAS SEEN A RISE OF A
DEGREE IN A FEW SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT
AN END TO THE RAIN/SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE BAND HAS BECOME
MORE BROKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MOST MODELS HAVE THE CWA DRY FOR THE
AFTN...HOWEVER THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES IN LIGHT
SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THE DRY AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL GET DRAWN INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH RISING
TEMPS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM
DEPARTING LOW...WITH THE FORECAST PRIMARILY DRY. WITH TEMPS
ALREADY STARTING TO RISE...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SNOW TO QUICKLY
END WITH LIQUID PRECIP TO BE THE PREDOMINATE P-TYPE. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR THE AFTERNOON AS SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL LIMIT HEATING. HAVE
GONE WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE AS MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM
THE PAST FEW DAYS. BY TONIGHT DECREASING CLOUDS COMBINE WITH
LIGHT WINDS FOR A GOOD SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS
LIKELY TO DIP BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST WESTERN LOCATIONS. STILL A
LITTLE EARLY FOR ANY FROST HEADLINES...AND MANY LOCATIONS WITH
THE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED...JUST SAW ACCUMULATING SNOWS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
MID RANGE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW THAT
BROUGHT PERSISTENT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA... A SHORTWAVE WILL
TRAVERSE THE SANDHILLS LATE MONDAY.
MONDAY... MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS EXCEPT FOR COOLED THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER NEAR COLORADO TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE REMAINING
SNOW PACK. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE...
BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY HELP OFFSET WAA.
WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING THE WAVE AND MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS... INTRODUCED SCHC POPS BEGINNING 18Z. NAM KEEPS
THE AREA DRY DUE TO OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. GFS AND EURO
ARE MORE BULLISH WITH THE MOISTURE AND DEPICT AN AREA OF 500-700HPA
SATURATION OVER THE CWA LATE MONDAY. LIFT IS STILL RATHER WEAK IN
GFS SOUNDINGS... BUT MOISTURE AND FGEN MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH IN THE
MID LEVELS TO OVERCOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE.
TUESDAY... SHUT OFF POPS BY 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE WAVE IS FAIRLY QUICK PASSING. SWITCHED PTYPE TO
RASN WEST OF NEB HWY 61 WHERE HIGHER ELEVATION AND COOLER LOW TEMPS
WOULD SUPPORT A MIX. AS THIS LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT AT
MOST... SHOULD NOT BE ADEQUATE DYNAMIC COOLING TO RESULT IN ALL SNOW
AND THUS KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS AT ZERO. DID PUSH MAX TEMPS UP A
DEGREE... WHICH LEANS TOWARD MAV AND MET. SKY SHOULD CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE... AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
NOTICEABLE WAA ACROSS THE REGION. GFS AND NAM BRING H85 TEMPS TO 11C
NORTH CENTRAL AND 14C FAR WEST. PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR UNINHIBITED MIXING TO NEAR 700HPA... AND WITH A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AT 850HPA... HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR 70F.
LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... THIS PERIOD IS DOMINATED
BY A BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT... RESULTING IN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. WEAK WAA AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. MOISTURE ADVECTION REALLY
TAKES SHAPE LATE WEEK AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY. GFS AND
EURO ARE PUSHING SFC DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S ALONG/EAST OF HWY
83 THURSDAY PM AND MID/UPPER 50S FRIDAY PM. BOTH MODELS HAVE A LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF THE SPEED
CONVERGENCE IS OVER THE SANDHILLS... SO FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
RETAIN CHC POPS OVERNIGHT. THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW REACHES THE
SOUTHWEST DESERT SATURDAY... WHICH BEGINS THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN PHASE
FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE H3 JET FEATURES A 100+KT STREAK POINTED
TOWARD EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY PM... AND WITH DEW POINTS NOW
PUSHING 60F... THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. GFS AND
EURO ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SFC LOW NEAR KSNY
AND H5 LOW OVER KLAS 00Z SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAKLY DEVELOPED CUMULUS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS. THE GUIDANCE PROJECTS
THESE CLOUDS TO REMAIN AOA 4000FT AGL...THUS VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
FOR MOST SITES. FAR EASTERN TERMINALS SUCH AS KONL AND KBBW ARE
STILL DEALING WITH MVFR STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING
LOW...BUT CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH TODAY...BUT WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THE WIND WILL LARGELY TURN WESTERLY
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 819 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE UPPER REACHES OF
THE ELKHORN RIVER. THE RIVER GAGE AT ATKINSON HAS JUST REACHED
FLOOD STAGE AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
FOR AT LEAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...JACOBS
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
819 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. DEFORMATION BAND STRETCHES ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. PRECIP TYPE GENERALLY RAIN EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83 THEN A MIX OR A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW TO THE WEST OF
83. TEMPS HAVE HELD FAIRLY STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40...HOWEVER THE LAST HOUR HAS SEEN A RISE OF A
DEGREE IN A FEW SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT
AN END TO THE RAIN/SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE BAND HAS BECOME
MORE BROKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MOST MODELS HAVE THE CWA DRY FOR THE
AFTN...HOWEVER THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES IN LIGHT
SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THE DRY AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL GET DRAWN INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH RISING
TEMPS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM
DEPARTING LOW...WITH THE FORECAST PRIMARILY DRY. WITH TEMPS
ALREADY STARTING TO RISE...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SNOW TO QUICKLY
END WITH LIQUID PRECIP TO BE THE PREDOMINATE P-TYPE. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR THE AFTERNOON AS SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL LIMIT HEATING. HAVE
GONE WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE AS MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM
THE PAST FEW DAYS. BY TONIGHT DECREASING CLOUDS COMBINE WITH
LIGHT WINDS FOR A GOOD SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS
LIKELY TO DIP BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST WESTERN LOCATIONS. STILL A
LITTLE EARLY FOR ANY FROST HEADLINES...AND MANY LOCATIONS WITH
THE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED...JUST SAW ACCUMULATING SNOWS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
MID RANGE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW THAT
BROUGHT PERSISTENT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA... A SHORTWAVE WILL
TRAVERSE THE SANDHILLS LATE MONDAY.
MONDAY... MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS EXCEPT FOR COOLED THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER NEAR COLORADO TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE REMAINING
SNOW PACK. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE...
BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY HELP OFFSET WAA.
WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING THE WAVE AND MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS... INTRODUCED SCHC POPS BEGINNING 18Z. NAM KEEPS
THE AREA DRY DUE TO OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. GFS AND EURO
ARE MORE BULLISH WITH THE MOISTURE AND DEPICT AN AREA OF 500-700HPA
SATURATION OVER THE CWA LATE MONDAY. LIFT IS STILL RATHER WEAK IN
GFS SOUNDINGS... BUT MOISTURE AND FGEN MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH IN THE
MID LEVELS TO OVERCOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE.
TUESDAY... SHUT OFF POPS BY 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE WAVE IS FAIRLY QUICK PASSING. SWITCHED PTYPE TO
RASN WEST OF NEB HWY 61 WHERE HIGHER ELEVATION AND COOLER LOW TEMPS
WOULD SUPPORT A MIX. AS THIS LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT AT
MOST... SHOULD NOT BE ADEQUATE DYNAMIC COOLING TO RESULT IN ALL SNOW
AND THUS KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS AT ZERO. DID PUSH MAX TEMPS UP A
DEGREE... WHICH LEANS TOWARD MAV AND MET. SKY SHOULD CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE... AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
NOTICEABLE WAA ACROSS THE REGION. GFS AND NAM BRING H85 TEMPS TO 11C
NORTH CENTRAL AND 14C FAR WEST. PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR UNINHIBITED MIXING TO NEAR 700HPA... AND WITH A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AT 850HPA... HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR 70F.
LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... THIS PERIOD IS DOMINATED
BY A BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT... RESULTING IN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. WEAK WAA AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. MOISTURE ADVECTION REALLY
TAKES SHAPE LATE WEEK AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY. GFS AND
EURO ARE PUSHING SFC DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S ALONG/EAST OF HWY
83 THURSDAY PM AND MID/UPPER 50S FRIDAY PM. BOTH MODELS HAVE A LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF THE SPEED
CONVERGENCE IS OVER THE SANDHILLS... SO FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
RETAIN CHC POPS OVERNIGHT. THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW REACHES THE
SOUTHWEST DESERT SATURDAY... WHICH BEGINS THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN PHASE
FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE H3 JET FEATURES A 100+KT STREAK POINTED
TOWARD EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY PM... AND WITH DEW POINTS NOW
PUSHING 60F... THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. GFS AND
EURO ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SFC LOW NEAR KSNY
AND H5 LOW OVER KLAS 00Z SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST...WITH THE SHOWERS COMING TO
AN END BY THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE ALREADY BECOMING WIDESPREAD
VFR ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KVTN...AND THIS WILL
SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON DRY AND VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 819 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSSUED ALONG THE UPPER REACHES OF
THE ELKHORN RIVER. THE RIVER GAGE AT ATKINSON HAS JUST REACHED
FLOOOD STAGE AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
FOR AT LEAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...MASEK
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
658 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. DEFORMATION BAND STRETCHES ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. PRECIP TYPE GENERALLY RAIN EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83 THEN A MIX OR A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW TO THE WEST OF
83. TEMPS HAVE HELD FAIRLY STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40...HOWEVER THE LAST HOUR HAS SEEN A RISE OF A
DEGREE IN A FEW SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT
AN END TO THE RAIN/SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE BAND HAS BECOME
MORE BROKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MOST MODELS HAVE THE CWA DRY FOR THE
AFTN...HOWEVER THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES IN LIGHT
SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THE DRY AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL GET DRAWN INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH RISING
TEMPS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM
DEPARTING LOW...WITH THE FORECAST PRIMARILY DRY. WITH TEMPS
ALREADY STARTING TO RISE...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SNOW TO QUICKLY
END WITH LIQUID PRECIP TO BE THE PREDOMINATE P-TYPE. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR THE AFTERNOON AS SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL LIMIT HEATING. HAVE
GONE WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE AS MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM
THE PAST FEW DAYS. BY TONIGHT DECREASING CLOUDS COMBINE WITH
LIGHT WINDS FOR A GOOD SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS
LIKELY TO DIP BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST WESTERN LOCATIONS. STILL A
LITTLE EARLY FOR ANY FROST HEADLINES...AND MANY LOCATIONS WITH
THE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED...JUST SAW ACCUMULATING SNOWS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
MID RANGE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW THAT
BROUGHT PERSISTENT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA... A SHORTWAVE WILL
TRAVERSE THE SANDHILLS LATE MONDAY.
MONDAY... MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS EXCEPT FOR COOLED THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER NEAR COLORADO TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE REMAINING
SNOW PACK. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE...
BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY HELP OFFSET WAA.
WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING THE WAVE AND MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS... INTRODUCED SCHC POPS BEGINNING 18Z. NAM KEEPS
THE AREA DRY DUE TO OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. GFS AND EURO
ARE MORE BULLISH WITH THE MOISTURE AND DEPICT AN AREA OF 500-700HPA
SATURATION OVER THE CWA LATE MONDAY. LIFT IS STILL RATHER WEAK IN
GFS SOUNDINGS... BUT MOISTURE AND FGEN MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH IN THE
MID LEVELS TO OVERCOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE.
TUESDAY... SHUT OFF POPS BY 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE WAVE IS FAIRLY QUICK PASSING. SWITCHED PTYPE TO
RASN WEST OF NEB HWY 61 WHERE HIGHER ELEVATION AND COOLER LOW TEMPS
WOULD SUPPORT A MIX. AS THIS LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT AT
MOST... SHOULD NOT BE ADEQUATE DYNAMIC COOLING TO RESULT IN ALL SNOW
AND THUS KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS AT ZERO. DID PUSH MAX TEMPS UP A
DEGREE... WHICH LEANS TOWARD MAV AND MET. SKY SHOULD CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE... AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
NOTICEABLE WAA ACROSS THE REGION. GFS AND NAM BRING H85 TEMPS TO 11C
NORTH CENTRAL AND 14C FAR WEST. PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR UNINHIBITED MIXING TO NEAR 700HPA... AND WITH A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AT 850HPA... HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR 70F.
LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... THIS PERIOD IS DOMINATED
BY A BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT... RESULTING IN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. WEAK WAA AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. MOISTURE ADVECTION REALLY
TAKES SHAPE LATE WEEK AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY. GFS AND
EURO ARE PUSHING SFC DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S ALONG/EAST OF HWY
83 THURSDAY PM AND MID/UPPER 50S FRIDAY PM. BOTH MODELS HAVE A LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF THE SPEED
CONVERGENCE IS OVER THE SANDHILLS... SO FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
RETAIN CHC POPS OVERNIGHT. THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW REACHES THE
SOUTHWEST DESERT SATURDAY... WHICH BEGINS THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN PHASE
FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE H3 JET FEATURES A 100+KT STREAK POINTED
TOWARD EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY PM... AND WITH DEW POINTS NOW
PUSHING 60F... THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. GFS AND
EURO ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SFC LOW NEAR KSNY
AND H5 LOW OVER KLAS 00Z SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST...WITH THE SHOWERS COMING TO
AN END BY THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE ALREADY BECOMING WIDESPREAD
VFR ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KVTN...AND THIS WILL
SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON DRY AND VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CWA WITH ONLY LIGHT
QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WHILE SO FAR RIVERS HAVE REMAINED
INSIDE THERE BANKS...MANY ARE ON THE RISE. SEVERAL AREA RIVER
FORECAST HAVE INCREASED TO ACTION STAGE...HOWEVER NONE ARE
FORECASTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. THE SLOW DURATION OF
THE RAINFALL HAS ALLOW MOST OF THE PRECIP TO SOAK INTO THE GROUND.
THIS SATURATED GROUND FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS HAS
RESULTED IN NUMEROUS FIELDS AND PASTURES TO HAVE POCKETS OF STANDING
WATER. WHILE NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...RIVER RESPONSES
WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...MASEK
HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
350 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. DEFORMATION BAND STRETCHES ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. PRECIP TYPE GENERALLY RAIN EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 THEN A MIX OR A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW TO THE WEST OF 83.
TEMPS HAVE HELD FAIRLY STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40...HOWEVER THE LAST HOUR HAS SEEN A RISE OF A DEGREE IN A
FEW SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT AN
END TO THE RAIN/SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE BAND HAS BECOME MORE
BROKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. MOST MODELS HAVE THE CWA DRY FOR THE AFTN...HOWEVER
THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES IN LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THE DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL
GET DRAWN INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH RISING TEMPS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM DEPARTING LOW...WITH THE
FORECAST PRIMARILY DRY. WITH TEMPS ALREADY STARTING TO RISE...EXPECT
THE THREAT FOR SNOW TO QUICKLY END WITH LIQUID PRECIP TO BE THE
PREDOMINATE P-TYPE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE AFTERNOON AS SOME
ISOLATED SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL LIMIT HEATING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE AS MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM THE PAST
FEW DAYS. BY TONIGHT DECREASING CLOUDS COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR
A GOOD SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS LIKELY TO DIP BELOW
FREEZING FOR MOST WESTERN LOCATIONS. STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR ANY
FROST HEADLINES...AND MANY LOCATIONS WITH THE COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED...JUST SAW ACCUMULATING SNOWS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
MID RANGE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW THAT
BROUGHT PERSISTENT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA... A SHORTWAVE WILL
TRAVERSE THE SANDHILLS LATE MONDAY.
MONDAY... MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS EXCEPT FOR COOLED THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER NEAR COLORADO TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE REMAINING
SNOW PACK. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE...
BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY HELP OFFSET WAA.
WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING THE WAVE AND MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS... INTRODUCED SCHC POPS BEGINNING 18Z. NAM KEEPS
THE AREA DRY DUE TO OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. GFS AND EURO
ARE MORE BULLISH WITH THE MOISTURE AND DEPICT AN AREA OF 500-700HPA
SATURATION OVER THE CWA LATE MONDAY. LIFT IS STILL RATHER WEAK IN
GFS SOUNDINGS... BUT MOISTURE AND FGEN MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH IN THE
MID LEVELS TO OVERCOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE.
TUESDAY... SHUT OFF POPS BY 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE WAVE IS FAIRLY QUICK PASSING. SWITCHED PTYPE TO
RASN WEST OF NEB HWY 61 WHERE HIGHER ELEVATION AND COOLER LOW TEMPS
WOULD SUPPORT A MIX. AS THIS LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT AT
MOST... SHOULD NOT BE ADEQUATE DYNAMIC COOLING TO RESULT IN ALL SNOW
AND THUS KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS AT ZERO. DID PUSH MAX TEMPS UP A
DEGREE... WHICH LEANS TOWARD MAV AND MET. SKY SHOULD CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE... AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
NOTICEABLE WAA ACROSS THE REGION. GFS AND NAM BRING H85 TEMPS TO 11C
NORTH CENTRAL AND 14C FAR WEST. PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR UNINHIBITED MIXING TO NEAR 700HPA... AND WITH A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AT 850HPA... HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR 70F.
LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... THIS PERIOD IS DOMINATED
BY A BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT... RESULTING IN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. WEAK WAA AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. MOISTURE ADVECTION REALLY
TAKES SHAPE LATE WEEK AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY. GFS AND
EURO ARE PUSHING SFC DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S ALONG/EAST OF HWY
83 THURSDAY PM AND MID/UPPER 50S FRIDAY PM. BOTH MODELS HAVE A LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF THE SPEED
CONVERGENCE IS OVER THE SANDHILLS... SO FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
RETAIN CHC POPS OVERNIGHT. THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW REACHES THE
SOUTHWEST DESERT SATURDAY... WHICH BEGINS THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN PHASE
FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE H3 JET FEATURES A 100+KT STREAK POINTED
TOWARD EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY PM... AND WITH DEW POINTS NOW
PUSHING 60F... THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. GFS AND
EURO ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SFC LOW NEAR KSNY
AND H5 LOW OVER KLAS 00Z SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...THE THREAT FOR RAIN OR SNOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS WILL RANGE FROM 2000 TO 4000 FT AGL
WITH THE LOWER CIGS OCCURRING WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN. BY
DAYBREAK...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 3500 TO 5000 FT AGL
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING. FOR THE
KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT CIGS OF 1000 TO 1500 FT AGL OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 10Z SUNDAY. CIGS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
MORNING TO 2500 TO 5000 FT AGL...WITH SKIES CLEARING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CWA WITH ONLY LIGHT
QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WHILE SO FAR RIVERS HAVE REMAINED
INSIDE THERE BANKS...MANY ARE ON THE RISE. SEVERAL AREA RIVER
FORECAST HAVE INCREASED TO ACTION STAGE...HOWEVER NONE ARE
FORECASTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. THE SLOW DURATION OF
THE RAINFALL HAS ALLOW MOST OF THE PRECIP TO SOAK INTO THE GROUND.
THIS SATURATED GROUND FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS HAS
RESULTED IN NUMEROUS FIELDS AND PASTURES TO HAVE POCKETS OF STANDING
WATER. WHILE NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...RIVER RESPONSES
WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...BUTTLER
HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1028 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIP
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRYING AND
WARMING WILL FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...SHOWERS WERE STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVE. THERE WERE STILL A COUPLE LIGHTNING
STRIKES ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN BLADEN COUNTY. WE EXPECT THE
ONGOING ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN LATE THIS EVE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THEN INTO GEORGIA. WE EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION WILL NOT DISSIPATE EVEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AS A GULF OF MEXICO TAP COMBINES WITH FRONTAL LIFT AND A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH.
DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A STRONG
UPSTREAM TROUGH. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SW AND W. THUS...HIGH POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE ARW AND HRRR HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY
ROLL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 07-08Z AND 13-14Z.
THE MAIN RISK WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE INTO
THE SHORT TERM AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN
CONUS. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SERIES OF FACTORS COME IN TO PLAY...INCLUDING FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES...DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT...IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED MORE OR
LESS ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL EITHER
STALL OR SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE THEREAFTER. BOTH GFS AND NAM
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS COULD BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THEN. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL DRYING AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS THE
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...SO EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...EASTERN EDGE OF OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. THE
5H LOW/TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL LIKELY
LEADING TO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE WITH NORTHERN LOCATIONS THE MOST
FAVORED. SIMILAR STORY...MINUS THE COLD FRONT...FRI AND POSSIBLY
SAT. MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVERHEAD GENERATING INSTABILITY SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...KEEPING COVERAGE LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO.
BLOCK STARTS BREAKING DOWN/SHIFTING EAST ON SAT WITH 5H RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR SUN AND MON. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES WHICH PREVENTS MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RETURN AND SETS
UP DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN ADDITION TO SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES SAT NEAR CLIMO BUT THEN ABOVE CLIMO SUN AND MON.
WEAKENING OF THE 5H RIDGE AND CONTINUED EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
RIDGE AXIS MON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN AS THE PERIOD
ENDS. DO NOT THINK PRECIP WILL FALL MON DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES.
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ON THE CUSP OF
THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL
KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT AND
WELL INTO TUESDAY...WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND LOWER CIGS
POTENTIALLY CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 10
KT TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR 20 KT...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGHER IN ANY TSRA.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL THE WATERS. SW WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4 TO 5 FT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASING. THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
BE WELL MIXED OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NUMEROUS LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL STAY SW THROUGH TUESDAY AND ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ADVISORIES TO BE POSTED...CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT FURTHER EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS. IT IS LIKELY THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE WATERS ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING LATE THU AND THU NIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. PINCHED GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION AS HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WILL PUSH WIND SPEEDS
CLOSE TO 20 KT LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. GRADIENT STARTS TO SLOWLY
RELAX FRI WITH WINDS DROPPING FROM 15 TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING TO
10 TO 15 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS 10 TO 15 KT
INTO SAT BEFORE DROPPING CLOSER TO 10 KT LATE SAT AFTERNOON. SEAS
PEAK THU NIGHT...RUNNING 3 TO 5 FT DUE TO THE STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW. SEAS START TO SUBSIDE ON FRI...DROPPING TO 2 TO 4 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH 2 FT OR LESS EXPECTED BY SAT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
825 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIP
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRYING AND
WARMING WILL FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE ON THE STRONGER SIDE AND MAY
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL IN ADDITION TO STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE RAIN WAS
ALSO HEAVY FROM TIME TO TIME. SOME ISOLATED COMMUNITIES MAY SEE
UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS. ONGOING CONVECTION WILL
BE SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH MID EVE WITH THE MOST GENEROUS RAIN
FALLING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...FROM LBT AND EYF
THROUGH FLO AND MAO AND WESTWARD.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS HAS HELPED TO
INVIGORATE CONVECTION ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. DO EXPECT THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT REACHES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
ARW AND HRRR MODELS SHOW THIS CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT
ROLLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 07-08Z AND
13-14Z. THUS WILL KEEP POPS HIGH...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD. THE
MAIN RISK WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE INTO
THE SHORT TERM AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN
CONUS. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SERIES OF FACTORS COME IN TO PLAY...INCLUDING FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES...DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT...IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED MORE OR
LESS ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL EITHER
STALL OR SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE THEREAFTER. BOTH GFS AND NAM
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS COULD BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THEN. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL DRYING AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS THE
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...SO EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...EASTERN EDGE OF OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. THE
5H LOW/TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL LIKELY
LEADING TO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE WITH NORTHERN LOCATIONS THE MOST
FAVORED. SIMILAR STORY...MINUS THE COLD FRONT...FRI AND POSSIBLY
SAT. MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVERHEAD GENERATING INSTABILITY SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...KEEPING COVERAGE LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO.
BLOCK STARTS BREAKING DOWN/SHIFTING EAST ON SAT WITH 5H RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR SUN AND MON. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES WHICH PREVENTS MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RETURN AND SETS
UP DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN ADDITION TO SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES SAT NEAR CLIMO BUT THEN ABOVE CLIMO SUN AND MON.
WEAKENING OF THE 5H RIDGE AND CONTINUED EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
RIDGE AXIS MON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN AS THE PERIOD
ENDS. DO NOT THINK PRECIP WILL FALL MON DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES.
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ON THE CUSP OF
THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL
KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT AND
WELL INTO TUESDAY...WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND LOWER CIGS
POTENTIALLY CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 10
KT TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR 20 KT...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGHER IN ANY TSRA.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL WATERS. SW WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4 TO 5 FT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ROLL ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL STAY SW THROUGH TUESDAY AND ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ADVISORIES TO BE POSTED...CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT FURTHER EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS. IT IS LIKELY THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE WATERS ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING LATE THU AND THU NIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. PINCHED GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION AS HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WILL PUSH WIND SPEEDS
CLOSE TO 20 KT LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. GRADIENT STARTS TO SLOWLY
RELAX FRI WITH WINDS DROPPING FROM 15 TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING TO
10 TO 15 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS 10 TO 15 KT
INTO SAT BEFORE DROPPING CLOSER TO 10 KT LATE SAT AFTERNOON. SEAS
PEAK THU NIGHT...RUNNING 3 TO 5 FT DUE TO THE STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW. SEAS START TO SUBSIDE ON FRI...DROPPING TO 2 TO 4 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH 2 FT OR LESS EXPECTED BY SAT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
316 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST. A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WARM FRONT IN PROCESS OF MOVING NORTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ATTENDANT PRECIP IS A BIT MORE VIGOROUS AND
WIDESPREAD THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AND THINK THAT GUIDANCE
UNDERESTIMATED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF UPPER
SUPPORT. IN ANY CASE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS STILL
THINK THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MARGINAL BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE
ODD STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
AREA OBSERVATIONS HOWEVER HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY STRONG WINDS
ACCOMPANYING PRESENT CONVECTION AND SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY UPPER
WINDS THAT MIX DOWN WOULD BE IN THE 25 KT RANGE. OF COURSE...RAIN-
COOLED DOWNDRAFTS COULD BE MUCH STRONGER.
HAVE LEANED ON THE HRRR FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM AS IT HAS INITIALIZED
WELL. THIS DEPICTS OUR PRESENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...TAPERING OFF
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. S TO SW FLOW IN WAKE OF WARM FROPA WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S MOST PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN CONUS.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF FACTORS COME
IN TO PLAY...INCLUDING FAVORABLE UPPER WINDS...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE POSITIONED MORE OR LESS ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT THAT BULK OF PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WHILE
ALOFT A MID LEVEL BLOCK WILL START SETTING UP. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA THU...DRIVEN WELL OFF THE COAST BY LARGE 5H EAST
COAST TROUGH/CUTOFF. THIS CUTOFF WILL FORM THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
BLOCK AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE
EAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER LOWER MS VALLEY EXPANDS EAST. MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE LIMITED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH DEEP
WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST FLOW PREVENT ANY MOISTURE RETURN. THERE WILL
BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WED-FRI CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
IN ADDITION TO DEEP DRY AIR LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST SLOWLY EXPANDS EAST...WILL DROP NEAR CLIMO
TEMPS WED BELOW TO WELL BELOW CLIMO THU THROUGH SAT. MID LEVEL
RIDGING AND MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH EAST WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
RETURNING NEAR CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS INVOF SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA WITH S-SW
FLOW...WHILE THE WIND FIELD REMAINS SKEWED IN AREAS OF CONVECTION.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY SHRA/TSRA.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY...LEAVING SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS IN ITS WAKE. SEAS WILL
NOT STRAY FAR FROM PRESENT HEIGHTS...RIGHT AROUND 3 FT...THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM BUT WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE IT OFFSHORE BEFORE
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STAY SW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ALTHOUGH A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT ON TUESDAY MAY SEE WINDS BUMPED UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS FOR A
TIME IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 5 FT SHOULD WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
PERIOD BEGINS WITH LOW/FRONT COMBO MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE ON THU WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN
ITS WAKE. PINCHED GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION THU NIGHT AND FRI
WILL PUSH WEST WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. GRADIENT AND
ADVECTION RELAX ON FRI AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND WINDS
DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WED BUILD TO
3 TO 4 FT THU IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. REDUCTION IN
SPEEDS LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO SEAS FALLING TO 2 TO 3 FT
FRI.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1217 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND INTO OHIO TODAY. THIS WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WORK INTO SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER WAVE WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE OHIO RIVER HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED
OUT OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHTER RADAR ECHOES WITHIN AN
AREA OF THICK LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF DISSIPATION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT PARTIAL CLEARING HAS BEGUN TO WORK
INTO SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH PATCHES OF STRATUS
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT APPEAR UNLIKELY TO COMPLETELY DEPART THE
AREA.
THESE CLOUDS WILL PLAY A PART IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
IS ABLE TO BE GENERATED TODAY...AN IMPORTANT KEY TO THE FORECAST
FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WITH MODEL TIMING AND INTENSITY
EXPECTATIONS STILL FAR FROM A NICE CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE 12Z
KILN SOUNDING AND SREF PROBABILITIES...IF TEMPERATURES IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE ABLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER
70S AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...SBCAPE OF 1200-1800 J/KG WILL BE
ATTAINABLE.
IN TERMS OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT...THIS REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION...BUT RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE PERHAPS SHOWN THE MOST
PROMISE IN ALIGNING BEST WITH THE OBSERVED SURFACE PATTERN.
ALONG A WEAK AND NEARLY-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...MOVING EAST AND OUT OF THE
CWA BY 00Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE EVENING...AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE. LOW-LEVEL
FORCING IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
FLOW IS ALSO FAIRLY WEAK. DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
MORE NOTABLE (45-50 KNOTS)...WHICH WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A FEW STRONG (TO POSSIBLY SEVERE) STORMS.
SINCE DESTABILIZATION IS ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS FOR THE
DAY...A ADDITIONAL KILN SOUNDING WILL BE CONDUCTED AT 17Z...IN
ORDER TO ASSESS THE EARLY AFTERNOON ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION SHOULD STILL BE ON GOING FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE FILLING H5 TROF LIFTS OUT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TONIGHT
PERIOD...WITH THE PCPN CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASING FROM SW TO NE
AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE LINGERING IN CENTRAL OHIO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. PCPN WILL REDEVELOP
MONDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAD DROPPED INTO SRN KY
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE FRONT WILL PUSH PCPN
INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT IN THE UPPER 50S IN
THE NORTH. THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER
60S HOWEVER.
H5 ENERGY DIGGING DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS WILL KEEP A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF
SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH AT MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AT BEST...SO AT THIS TIME HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP PCPN
MENTION TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70
SOUTH.
DIGGING TROF DEVELOPS INTO DEEP LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THRU AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
FEATURE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE FCST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON
SATURDAY WITH THE SOME EVIDENCE THAT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THIS LARGE LOW. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED FOR DRY SOLN SATURDAY.
TEMP WISE...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW...BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTH. READINGS WILL ONLY MODERATE A LTL SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WELL...AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AIRPORTS...BUT THUNDER COULD BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS
IF NECESSARY IN FUTURE UPDATES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST GOING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MORE LIKELY FOR THE
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...LOW-END MVFR
CEILINGS (POSSIBLY IFR) WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY MORNING. MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
923 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND INTO OHIO TODAY. THIS WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WORK INTO SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER WAVE WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE OHIO RIVER HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED
OUT OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHTER RADAR ECHOES WITHIN AN
AREA OF THICK LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF DISSIPATION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT PARTIAL CLEARING HAS BEGUN TO WORK
INTO SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH PATCHES OF STRATUS
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT APPEAR UNLIKELY TO COMPLETELY DEPART THE
AREA.
THESE CLOUDS WILL PLAY A PART IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
IS ABLE TO BE GENERATED TODAY...AN IMPORTANT KEY TO THE FORECAST
FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WITH MODEL TIMING AND INTENSITY
EXPECTATIONS STILL FAR FROM A NICE CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE 12Z
KILN SOUNDING AND SREF PROBABILITIES...IF TEMPERATURES IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE ABLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER
70S AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...SBCAPE OF 1200-1800 J/KG WILL BE
ATTAINABLE.
IN TERMS OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT...THIS REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION...BUT RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE PERHAPS SHOWN THE MOST
PROMISE IN ALIGNING BEST WITH THE OBSERVED SURFACE PATTERN.
ALONG A WEAK AND NEARLY-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...MOVING EAST AND OUT OF THE
CWA BY 00Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE EVENING...AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE. LOW-LEVEL
FORCING IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
FLOW IS ALSO FAIRLY WEAK. DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
MORE NOTABLE (45-50 KNOTS)...WHICH WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A FEW STRONG (TO POSSIBLY SEVERE) STORMS.
SINCE DESTABILIZATION IS ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS FOR THE
DAY...A ADDITIONAL KILN SOUNDING WILL BE CONDUCTED AT 17Z...IN
ORDER TO ASSESS THE EARLY AFTERNOON ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION SHOULD STILL BE ON GOING FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE FILLING H5 TROF LIFTS OUT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TONIGHT
PERIOD...WITH THE PCPN CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASING FROM SW TO NE
AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE LINGERING IN CENTRAL OHIO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. PCPN WILL REDEVELOP
MONDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAD DROPPED INTO SRN KY
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE FRONT WILL PUSH PCPN
INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT IN THE UPPER 50S IN
THE NORTH. THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER
60S HOWEVER.
H5 ENERGY DIGGING DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS WILL KEEP A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF
SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH AT MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AT BEST...SO AT THIS TIME HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP PCPN
MENTION TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70
SOUTH.
DIGGING TROF DEVELOPS INTO DEEP LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THRU AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
FEATURE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE FCST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON
SATURDAY WITH THE SOME EVIDENCE THAT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THIS LARGE LOW. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED FOR DRY SOLN SATURDAY.
TEMP WISE...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW...BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTH. READINGS WILL ONLY MODERATE A LTL SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CIGS HAVE STARTED TO BREAK THIS MORNING TO MVFR/ VFR AS RAIN
HAS COME TO A TEMPORARY BREAK ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TEMPORARY
BREAK IS THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITING THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR THE CHANCE OF PRECIP TO COME RIGHT BACK. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY WHILE THE GFS AND
RAP ARE MORE RESERVED. HIGH RES MODELS ARE ALSO SCATTERED WITH
PRECIP AND HAVE NOT DONE A GOOD JOB THIS MORNING. GIVEN THESE
REASONS HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
AM EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BUT REDUCED CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER CELLS THAT FORM OVER THE
TERMINALS.
GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS AGAIN ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF
THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND HIGH RES ARE GENERALLY 3
TO 6 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE EURO AND GFS. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED
TAFS TO THE GFS/EURO SOLUTION. THIS WOULD FAVOR A TEMPORARY BREAK
IN PRECIP AFTER SUNSET AND THEN ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIP MOVING
ACROSS MONDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/ SURFACE
LOW. BOTH GFS/ NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CIGS
MONDAY MORNING WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE HAVE ONLY HINTED AT MVFR FOR MONDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
303 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Showers lifting northeast across western OK will graze portions of
NE OK this afternoon. This activity should gradually dissipate
toward 00z as the isentropic lift forcing it weakens. Upper
shortwave trough over AZ/NM will slide northeast across our area
tonight. The 12z GFS/ECMWF and latest runs of the experimental
HRRR bring showers across NE OK tonight along the track of the
system. Farther to the south over west TX...increasing ~800 mb
frontogenetic lift in association with the upper wave will
produce one or more bands of rain and possibly a few lightning
strikes late tonight. This activity will spread northeast along
the frontal surface with the HRRR suggesting that it will clip
southeast OK going into Monday morning. Will carry higher chance
pops along the track of the upper wave up north...and down south
where it is most likely banded precip will occur...and only slight
chance pops in between.
Temperatures through Monday night...highs and lows...will run
roughly 10 degrees below average for this time of year. A warming
trend is expected by midweek...with highs returning to the 80s for
the latter part of the week.
The upper air pattern next week will be characterized by a deep
upper trough over the East and Gulf with a ridge over the Rockies.
Rich Gulf moisture will be scoured out by this pattern...with
tranquil weather expected. The upper features will slowly shift
east...with ridging over the Plains by the end of the week.
Eventually a deep upper trough over the West will eventually move
into the Plains early next week...and this will be our next chance
of storms. The moisture quality this system will have to work with
will not be as good as what we saw the last week of April however.
This may mitigate the overall severe potential.
Lacy
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 47 65 45 72 / 40 10 0 10
FSM 52 69 47 71 / 20 10 10 0
MLC 50 66 44 71 / 20 10 0 10
BVO 46 65 40 72 / 40 10 0 10
FYV 47 63 39 67 / 20 10 10 10
BYV 48 63 42 67 / 20 20 10 10
MKO 48 65 44 71 / 20 10 0 0
MIO 47 63 41 70 / 40 20 10 0
F10 48 65 44 71 / 20 10 0 0
HHW 54 70 46 72 / 30 30 0 10
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas early
this afternoon should give way to MVFR ceilings from northwest to
southeast this afternoon and tonight. At the same time...rain
chances will become possible across the region through tonight as
an upper level low shifts eastward. Will continue prob30 groups
for precip timing across all TAF sites. MVFR ceilings are expected
to remain common over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas
through the end of the TAF period Monday morning behind the
exiting precip chances.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
This morning...on a synoptic scale...an upper low was positioned
over Arizona and New Mexico while a second upper low was located
over Kansas and Nebraska. Southerly upper flow from the Arizona
upper low was converging with the northerly upper flow from the
Kansas upper low...creating a mid level frontal boundary to the
northwest of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. A few
showers had developed along this boundary early this
morning...though had dissipated by mid morning as they ran into
drier air over North Central Oklahoma. Across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas at mid morning...mostly clear to partly cloudy
conditions with west to northwesterly surface winds were common.
This afternoon...the mid level frontal boundary is expected to
push southeast into the CWA as the Arizona low becomes more of an
open wave as it shifts east and the Kansas low continues to
weaken. Latest HRRR runs try to develop some precip along this
boundary over Northeast Oklahoma this afternoon. For now will
continue with the current small pops northwest of Interstate
44...as the drier low level air over the region could hinder
precip reaching the ground. The better precip chances continue to
look to be tonight into Monday as the Arizona upper low moves into
the Southern Plains.
Ahead of the mid level boundary...Partly cloudy skies west to
mostly clear skies east will allow for temps to warm into the
60s-lower 70s from northwest to southeast over the CWA. As the
boundary moves into the region...cloud cover should begin to
increase with mostly cloudy conditions over the CWA expected this
evening. Also today...west to northwesterly winds 5 to 15 mph should
continue across the CWA.
Morning update will be to add minor tweaks to the afternoon
temp/pop/dewpoint/wind grinds and adjust timing of increasing sky
grids. Otherwise...current forecasts seems to be in good shape at
this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 47 65 45 72 / 30 10 0 10
FSM 52 69 47 71 / 40 10 10 0
MLC 50 66 44 71 / 30 10 0 10
BVO 46 65 40 72 / 30 10 0 10
FYV 47 63 39 67 / 30 10 10 10
BYV 48 63 42 67 / 20 20 10 10
MKO 48 65 44 71 / 30 10 0 0
MIO 47 63 41 70 / 20 20 10 0
F10 48 65 44 71 / 30 10 0 0
HHW 54 70 46 72 / 40 10 0 10
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
This morning...on a synoptic scale...an upper low was positioned
over Arizona and New Mexico while a second upper low was located
over Kansas and Nebraska. Southerly upper flow from the Arizona
upper low was converging with the northerly upper flow from the
Kansas upper low...creating a mid level frontal boundary to the
northwest of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. A few
showers had developed along this boundary early this
morning...though had dissipated by mid morning as they ran into
drier air over North Central Oklahoma. Across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas at mid morning...mostly clear to partly cloudy
conditions with west to northwesterly surface winds were common.
This afternoon...the mid level frontal boundary is expected to
push southeast into the CWA as the Arizona low becomes more of an
open wave as it shifts east and the Kansas low continues to
weaken. Latest HRRR runs try to develop some precip along this
boundary over Northeast Oklahoma this afternoon. For now will
continue with the current small pops northwest of Interstate
44...as the drier low level air over the region could hinder
precip reaching the ground. The better precip chances continue to
look to be tonight into Monday as the Arizona upper low moves into
the Southern Plains.
Ahead of the mid level boundary...Partly cloudy skies west to
mostly clear skies east will allow for temps to warm into the
60s-lower 70s from northwest to southeast over the CWA. As the
boundary moves into the region...cloud cover should begin to
increase with mostly cloudy conditions over the CWA expected this
evening. Also today...west to northwesterly winds 5 to 15 mph should
continue across the CWA.
Morning update will be to add minor tweaks to the afternoon
temp/pop/dewpoint/wind grinds and adjust timing of increasing sky
grids. Otherwise...current forecasts seems to be in good shape at
this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 67 48 64 46 / 10 30 10 0
FSM 75 51 68 47 / 0 40 20 10
MLC 70 50 66 45 / 0 40 10 0
BVO 64 46 63 43 / 20 40 10 0
FYV 68 48 62 42 / 0 30 20 10
BYV 70 49 62 43 / 0 30 30 10
MKO 68 48 65 44 / 0 40 10 0
MIO 65 46 63 42 / 0 30 10 0
F10 67 48 65 45 / 0 40 10 0
HHW 76 53 69 47 / 0 50 20 0
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1140 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. MEANWHILE...A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A SECOND STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PASS ON THURSDAY AND WILL BRING DOWN A MASS OF COLD AIR
FROM CANADA FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM...PER LATEST WV IMAGERY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...TAKING
THE AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH IT.
MEANWHILE...THE OLD CAD BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED TO NEAR THE NC/SC
BORDER...WITH SW SFC WINDS NOW BEING OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF UPSTATE
SC AND NORTHEAST GA. QUITE A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH CUMULUS TENDS TO FILL IN PRETTY QUICKLY WITHIN THE MOIST
ENVIRONS. SBCAPE IS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG IN DEEPER
INTO THE WARM SECTOR (ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE AND THE SOUTHWEST
NC MTNS). ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE A FEW PEAKS OF
SUN...IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. THAT
BEING THE CASE...IT STILL SEEMS THE 2000+ SBCAPE DEPICTED IN SOME
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS A BIT OVERDONE...BUT SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY
SHOULD NEVERTHELESS EXIST TO ALLOW FOR STRONG TO A PERHAPS A HANDFUL
OF SEVERE STORMS.
HAVING SAID THAT...IT/S NOT AT ALL CLEAR HOW CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
GOING TO EVOLVE LATER TODAY. WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN A
FEW ISOLATED CELLS...AT LEAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
TERRAIN EFFECTS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SOURCES OF LIFT
TO FOCUS CONVECTION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE...SO IT/S NOT CLEAR AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ADEQUATE LIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SOME OF THE LATEST HIRES/
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CONVECTIVE LULL WILL PERSIST WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE LATEST HRRR DOES EXPAND COVERAGE OVER
THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH (IT/S THE ONLY HIRES MODEL THAT/S REALLY DOING
THIS). BASED UPON THE EXPECTED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IT SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...AND WILL ALLOW POPS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY THERE BY EARLY EVENING...WITH SOLID CHANCES
ADVERTISED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UPSTATE/SC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHWEST NC
PIEDMONT FOR HYDRO ISSUES...AS SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN
ACROSS A FAIRLY WIDE SWATH SINCE SAT EVENING.
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY LATE
EVENING OR SO. TONIGHT/S LOWS WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY MILD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300AM EDT SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ON
MONDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW PERSISTS AROUND A
SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF AN UPPER CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGH THAT MAKES GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESS. MONDAY AFTERNOON
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES...MODEST INSTABILITY...AND
MODEST BULKSHEAR...CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END SEVERE AND LOCAL FLOODING IF CELLS SHOULD
TRAIN OVER ONE AREA.
TROUGH REACHES THE CWA WITH A COLD FRONT AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER NON-THUNDER SHOWERS MAY PERSIST
TUESDAY MORNING...DESPITE DECLINING PWATS...DUE TO FORCING FROM
UPPER SYSTEM. SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT TUESDAY WILL HAVE
MOSTLY DRYER CONDITIONS AND AN END TO RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300AM SUNDAY...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF MAJOR FRONT EARLY
TUESDAY...MOISTURE PLUMMETS ACROSS THE AREA AND SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ALSO DECLINE TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MODELS HAVE A
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA BUT GREATLY REDUCED BL MOISTURE LIMITS
POTENTIAL.
IN ADDITION TO SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND MAJOR UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHOT
OF COOL CANADIAN AIR DESCENDING WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH WITH A MAJOR
COLD FROPA ON THURSDAY...AND THE COLDEST POINT IN THE FORECAST BEING
REACHED FRIDAY MORNING. GFS STILL HAS 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -2C OVER
THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE EC SLIGHTLY WARMER AT
-1C. FRONT COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY WITH
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ON THE WEST SLOPE OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE JUST WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE TO STILL PRECLUDE
ANY WINTER PRECIP. TYPES. GFS-EC AGREEMENT IS QUITE GOOD THROUGH
THURSDAY...INCLUDING DETAILS ABOUT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.
COOL AIR INTRUSION FRIDAY IS SEASONALLY SHORT-LIVED WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A MIXED BAG THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS
WITH VARIABLE CEILING AND VISIBILITY DEPENDING ON LOCATION RELATIVE
TO WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MOST
PLACES WILL BE MVFR OR IFR/LIFR THROUGH THAT TIME...WITH THE THOUGHT
THAT IFR WILL PREVAIL MAINLY OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AS THE MAIN AREA
OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH. THINK THE BIGGER PROBLEM WILL BE CEILING
AND NOT VISIBILITY. MEANWHILE...THERE WILL BE SOME VFR HOLES IN THE
LOW CLOUD CEILING. WIND GENERALLY SHOULD BE SE TO THE SOUTH OF AN
OLD BOUNDARY RUNNING ROUGHLY ALONG I-85...AND NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT WITH SE WIND TAKING
SHAPE AT ALL PLACES BY MID MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN
THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...THEN ANOTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY. THE TSRA CHANCE WILL BE
HANDLED WITH A TEMPO AT ALL SITES. ENDED PRECIP/RESTRICTION THREAT
EVERYWHERE BY 00Z BASED ON GUIDANCE SHOWING A WAVE MOVING PAST
AROUND THAT TIME. MOST DETAIL BEYOND 00Z MONDAY WAS ELIMINATED FOR
BREVITY.
OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER/OCCASIONAL CONVECTION/RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A FRONT BECOMES
STALLED NEAR THE AREA. DEFINITIVE DRYING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY
UNTIL AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z
KCLT MED 70% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP MED 68% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 81% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94%
KHKY LOW 53% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...WJM
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
741 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DEEPER MOISTURE HAS EXITED OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL RESIDES UPSTREAM. THIS
WILL ACT TO PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF PVA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO REDEVELOP THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST OF I-65 AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...MODEL MRH TRENDS DECREASE
THROUGH 12Z. CURRENTLY...ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOL LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE INDICATED ON RADAR. FOR THE FCST...WILL OPT TO KEEP
THE FCST AS IS FOR THE MOST PART. ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO REMOVE
TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH...AND REMOVE LIKELY POPS FROM
THE EASTERN PLATEAU. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUR PLATEAU
TOWARD 12Z BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM ITS INCLUSION AT THIS TIME AS IT
LOOKS RATHER BORDERLINE FOR VSBYS AOB 1SM. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MID-STATE EARLIER NOW JUST EAST.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND EXPECTED TO LINGER WELL INTO
TUESDAY. POSSIBLE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING EXPECTED
TO DETERIORATE LATER AS LOW CIGS/VSBYS REDEVELOP. ALL LOCATIONS
LIKELY TO BE IFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT
AFTER 15Z.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........07
LONG TERM..................08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
700 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DEEPER MOISTURE HAS EXITED OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL RESIDES UPSTREAM. THIS
WILL ACT TO PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF PVA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO REDEVELOP THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST OF I-65 AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...MODEL MRH TRENDS DECREASE
THROUGH 12Z. CURRENTLY...ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOL LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE INDICATED ON RADAR. FOR THE FCST...WILL OPT TO KEEP
THE FCST AS IS FOR THE MOST PART. ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO REMOVE
TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH...AND REMOVE LIKELY POPS FROM
THE EASTERN PLATEAU. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUR PLATEAU
TOWARD 12Z BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM ITS INCLUSION AT THIS TIME AS IT
LOOKS RATHER BORDERLINE FOR VSBYS AOB 1SM. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
-SHRA/-TSRA TO AFFECT CKV THROUGH 19Z...BNA THROUGH 20Z..AND CSV
THROUGH 00Z THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS REGION.
PREDOMINATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL PRECIP ENDS WHEN MVFR/VFR
CAN BE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT...PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR IFR CIGS/VIS TO RETURN TO CSV. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT CKV/BNA...AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY AT CSV.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........07
LONG TERM..................21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1256 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
UPDATE...
CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SKIRT MONROE
COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR PARIS
TENNESSEE TO NEAR STUGGART ARKANSAS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST KNQA RADAR SHOWS THE FIRST SHOWER MAY BEGINNING TO GO UP
OVER LEE COUNTY ARKANSAS. WILL UPDATE TO RAISE POPS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS IS PRETTY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM
AS WELL.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...BUT SO FAR WE HAVE
NOT SEEN ANYTHING THAT WARRANTS THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SMALLEST NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND
KENTUCKY STATE LINE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND
UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING IF NEEDED. TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN
THE MIDDLE 60S THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW
60S BY SUNRISE. THERE WERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON RADAR EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT...BUT AS OF 3 AM...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN. SHORT
TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS...SUGGESTS THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNRISE.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. IT IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING KENNETT MISSOURI AND WYNNE ARKANSAS. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO STALL LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY...IN
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN A
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
PROVIDING A BIT MORE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL LIKELY RETURN TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST. MONDAY SHOULD BE OUR
LAST DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
SYNOPTICALLY...WE WILL SEE A BLOCKING PATTERN SET UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS....POSSIBLY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BENIGN WEATHER. CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD TOP OUT ON THE LOW 70S...AND MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S
IN DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY MORNING WHEN SOME LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE MIDDLE
40S. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM KUCY TO KPBF. KJBR IS WEST OF THE
FRONT SO EXPECT VFR CONDS THERE WITH LIGHT NW WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHRAS AND TSRAS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. ADDED VCTS TO KMEM/KMKL/KTUP FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWEST LATE. CONFIDENCE TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD IS LOW. ATTM EXPECT AN AREA OF SHRAS WITH
EMBEDDED TSRAS TO MOVE NE INTO THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1106 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.UPDATE...
CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SKIRT MONROE
COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR PARIS
TENNESSEE TO NEAR STUGGART ARKANSAS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST KNQA RADAR SHOWS THE FIRST SHOWER MAY BEGINNING TO GO UP
OVER LEE COUNTY ARKANSAS. WILL UPDATE TO RAISE POPS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS IS PRETTY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM
AS WELL.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...BUT SO FAR WE HAVE
NOT SEEN ANYTHING THAT WARRANTS THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SMALLEST NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND
KENTUCKY STATE LINE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND
UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING IF NEEDED. TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN
THE MIDDLE 60S THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW
60S BY SUNRISE. THERE WERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON RADAR EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT...BUT AS OF 3 AM...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN. SHORT
TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS...SUGGESTS THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNRISE.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. IT IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING KENNETT MISSOURI AND WYNNE ARKANSAS. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO STALL LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY...IN
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN A
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
PROVIDING A BIT MORE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL LIKELY RETURN TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST. MONDAY SHOULD BE OUR
LAST DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
SYNOPTICALLY...WE WILL SEE A BLOCKING PATTERN SET UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS....POSSIBLY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BENIGN WEATHER. CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD TOP OUT ON THE LOW 70S...AND MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S
IN DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY MORNING WHEN SOME LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE MIDDLE
40S. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
STALLED FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER. WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT ALL BUT KJBR
WHERE WINDS ARE WEST NORTHWESTERLY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 8 KTS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS CIGS LOWER LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH VCSH INCLUDED AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION UNDER SW
FLOW ALOFT.
ZDM
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1227 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.UPDATE...
COOL AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES. SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION WILL PERSIST
LATE TODAY AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY STILL DEVELOP FROM TEMPLE TO PALESTINE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
FOR ACTUAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH AND HAVE LOWERED
LOWERED POPS DOWN INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.
THE TTU WRF CONTINUES TO SHOW LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER NM/W TX
APPROACHING OUR FAR NW COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z. THE HRRR AND NAM12 SOLUTIONS DON/T
AGREE AND WILL FOLLOW THESE MODELS CONSIDERING HOW DRY THE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS IS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME REPORTS OF VIRGA OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOTHING WITH REGARD
TO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO SEE THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREAD OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CWA MONDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND WE/LL ONLY
ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS VERSUS A LIKELY MENTION. BETTER FORCING AND
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD EXIT THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE DEPARTS THE AREA.
THOUGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM EARLY TODAY WITH THE
CAA...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF
WARMING AND INTO THE 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD INSOLATION
SEEN THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SEND A
SHORTWAVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS CURRENTLY RESIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A COLD
FRONT...WHICH LEAVES US WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LIFT...AND SOME MEAGER LEVELS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS A A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH SPARSE COVERAGE EXPECTED...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE VCSH FROM LATE THIS EVENING TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT
ALL TAF SITES. IF FUTURE MODELS COME IN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPMENT...WE WOULD LIKELY NEED TO INDICATE TS DURING A BRIEF
PORTION OF THE TAF FOR THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TODAY
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE BEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TODAY WILL
RESIDE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS.
HOWEVER...MODELS DO INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL SEE
SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS MENTIONED. THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS FAIRLY LOW OVERALL...BUT IF ANY STORM WERE TO
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS IT WOULD BE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A REINFORCEMENT OF DRY AND COOL AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES SLOWLY NORTHEAST
AS DEPTH OF THE DRY/COOL AIR INCREASES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
COUPLED WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A COOL
DAY FOR EARLY MAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND LOWER
70S.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST ON SATURDAY
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER STORM
CHANCES EXPECTED BY NEXT SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A VERY GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE UPPER LOW COULD REMAIN CUT OFF WEST OF THE REGION
FOR SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WOULD KEEP THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF
MAY.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 75 55 71 52 74 / 5 40 20 5 5
WACO 76 56 71 52 74 / 10 50 40 5 5
PARIS 75 53 69 51 71 / 5 40 20 5 5
DENTON 72 51 70 49 73 / 5 40 20 5 5
MCKINNEY 74 53 70 50 72 / 5 40 20 5 5
DALLAS 76 56 72 53 74 / 5 40 20 5 5
TERRELL 77 56 72 52 73 / 10 40 30 5 5
CORSICANA 78 58 73 53 73 / 10 50 40 5 5
TEMPLE 78 58 69 53 73 / 10 50 40 10 5
MINERAL WELLS 72 49 68 48 74 / 10 40 20 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
30/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL WEDGE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 840 PM EDT SATURDAY...
DEEPER MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM SW TO NE
THIS EVENING AS BACKING ALOFT OVER THE WEDGE HAS RESULTED IN
PROGRESSIVELY WETTER SOUNDINGS PER PWATS NOW OVER AN INCH. HOWEVER
THE LOW LEVEL CAD REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITH THE EVENING RNK
RAOB SHOWING EASTERLY FLOW UP TO ABOVE 9H WHILE GUIDANCE INDICATES
LITTLE EROSION UNTIL LATE AND MAINLY ACROSS THE SW PERIMETER. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BANDS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTH WITHIN MORE INSTABILITY...AND THEN RIDING OVER THE COOL
POOL IN ELEVATED FASHION OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH MORE ISENTROPIC
LIFT NATURE LIGHT RAIN FARTHER NORTH. LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THIS
TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION WEAKENING BEFORE
RAMPING UP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SOUTH GETS CLOSER AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES. APPEARS
COULD BE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH/WEST AS WARMING ALOFT DEEPENS A BIT BUT
STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEGREE OF ANY PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.
THUS WONT HOIST ANY FLOOD WATCHES ESPCLY GIVEN LIGHTER TOTALS SO
FAR AND LITTLE OUT EAST WHERE THE DEEPER WEDGE CONTINUES TO LIMIT
PRECIP. OTRW HAVE AGAIN TRENDED POPS LOWER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO INIT BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL OVERNIGHT AS
DEEPER MOISTURE FINALLY NUDGES EAST. FOG ALSO REMAINS AN ISSUE
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BUT WITH RAIN INCREASING EXPECTING SOME
IMPROVEMENT FROM SW TO NE. THUS STAYING WITH THE GOING SPS FOR
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITHOUT HEADLINES FOR NOW. LOWERED TEMPS A
LITTLE MORE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION AND LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE COLUMN WHICH HAS COOLED MOST BACK INTO
THE CHILLY/DAMP LOW/MID 50S THIS EVENING.
UPDATE AS OF 620 PM EDT SATURDAY...
WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
NW AND EXTREME SW SECTIONS...UPDATED TO LOWER POPS BACK TO CHANCE
ELSEWHERE FOR A COUPLE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. APPEARS MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE
SW PUSHES INTO/OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WARM ADVECTION HAS ALSO CAUSED CLOUD BASES TO
LOWER ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ALONG PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. THIS TREND MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AS WARM
AIR ALOFT DEEPENS OVER THE WEDGE AND AIDED BY SATURATED LOW LEVELS
PER RAINFALL. ALSO LOWERING LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS
SINCE CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST VALUES OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING VALUES TO FALL MUCH MORE AS RAINFALL INCREASES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL HOLD AS WE HEAD THRU THE
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING
WITH RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT WE
START TO SEE MODELS EMPHASIZE STRONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH ENHANCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST MOST OF THE
AREA WILL SEE RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. WILL NOT ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL BEAR MONITORING TO SEE IF ANY
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND TRAINS ACROSS THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT.
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO.
AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS...AM KEEPING THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEDGE. AS WE HEAD TO
SUNDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLEAR SKIES IN THE NORTH AND EAST BUT
MODELS FAVOR QUICKER EROSION OF THE WEDGE. WILL BE SLOWER...THEN
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONTS OF NC/VA. QUESTION WILL BE IF
SUNSHINE CAN BREAK OUT. AT THE MOMENT SEEMS BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL
BE IN WV/FAR SW VA AND ACROSS THE NW NC PIEDMONT...BUT THINK CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE DAY.
WITH FLOW TURNING SSW BY AFTERNOON WENT CLOSE TO MOS ON HIGHS...BUT
COULD SEE IT COOLER IN LYH TO HSP. MOST WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT
MILD TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY RANGING FROM NEAR 70 NORTHWEST
TO LOW 80S SOUTHEAST AS COOLING IS MODEST BEHIND IT..H85 TEMPS
DROPPING ONLY A FEW DEGREES BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAKES
ONLY SLIGHT PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY LEAVING ENOUGH
CLOUDS TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT HIGHER MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
UPPER 40S TO MID-50S. THE SAME FRONT WILL BECOME NEAR STATIONARY
ALONG COAST AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY STRENGTH
OF PERTURBATIONS ALONG IT WHICH WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY. WPC AND GFS SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY
FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN EARLIER CMC OR ECMWF RUNS WHICH BOTH BRING
CONSIDERABLY MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO OUR CWA. WENT WITH A MODEL
BLEND RETAINING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BUT THE HIGHEST
OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY BUT STILL
LINGERING POPS ACROSS OUR CWA BUT MAINLY SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING DURING
IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE ANOTHER FRONT OVER THE
UPPER PLAINS BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
SHARPLY.BOTH GFS AND EURO SHOW UPPER LOW CLOSING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS BY LATE THURSDAY WITH EXACT POSITION UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY TO
HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER BY THAT TIME. 00Z EURO IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEP COMPLEX SURFACE LOW MORE OR LESS MERGING
WITH THE EXISTING COASTAL SYSTEM AND ACTUALLY BACKING IN TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. GFS/CMC NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AND DEEP WITH
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE REFLECTION WHICH SEEMS MORE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY PLAUSIBLE BUT WENT WITH BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY. EITHER WAY A PERSISTENT DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL EXIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH COOL TEMPS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
60 OVER THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSE TO 10F BELOW NORMAL. SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A STRONG COOL WEDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AND KEEP CEILINGS AT LIFR/IFR WITH VISIBILITIES AT MVFR.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE MOMENTS WHERE THE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TEMPORARILY IMPROVE...THE OVERALL TREND SUGGESTS A
DETERIORATION OF FLYING CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG
SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE...AS MOISTURE KEEPS INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
THAT COULD BRING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR ALL SITES DURING EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
NOT MUCH CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND LIFR/IFR CEILINGS ONGOING. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...CEILINGS EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/IFR ONCE THE COOL
WEDGE BEGINS TO ERODE...ALTHOUGH KLYH MAY BE LAST TO BREAK OUT OF
THE WEDGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WEST
OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY...AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE DESTABILIZES THE
ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PINPOINT WHICH
SITES WILL SEE THUNDER AT THIS MOMENT TO ADVERTISE IT IN THE TAFS.
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CEASE AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OVERHEAD BY MONDAY. MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD
HELP PUSH THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL...FLYING CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER
POOR THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH RAIN CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO COME
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITIES EXPANDING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP MUCH OF THE
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ARE FARTHER NORTH AND WETTER. MESOSCALE MODELS SEEM TO
AGREE WITH THE WETTER SOLUTIONS...SO KEPT LIKELY GOING IN THE FAR
SOUTH. MIGHT NEED TO BUMP POPS UP THOUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
GIVEN LATEST RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS. RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHEAST
BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY...THOUGH WILL SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS AWAY FROM
THE LAKE. SHOULD SEE TEMPS RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR
COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH DEPARTS SOUTHERN WI. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY LOOK MILD WITH
SOME SUN. THEN PRECIP LOOKS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT. THERE IS GOOD SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM A STRONG
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITHIN A DEEP GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 90KT JET. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH CAPE SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WHILE OTHER
MODELS SHOW MUCH LESS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
BRISK NORTH WINDS. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING PRECIP LINGERING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER SOUTHEAST WI
SO HAVE LOW POPS THROUGH THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A MID
LEVEL RIDGE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY THEN A THERMAL RIDGE
SETTLES IN BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE CANADIAN AND GFS
SHOW SOME PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT FORCING
IS WEAK SO KEPT FORECAST DRY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO
SUNDAY ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER BUT INSTABILITY
DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES COOL SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW DRIFTS TOWARD THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
A LARGE AREA OF CLEARING CONTINUES TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
NOW SEEING SOME LOWER CLOUDS ADVECTING BACK IN FROM THE EAST. STILL
SEEMS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN OR NEAR MVFR
CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR NORTH. SHOULD BE VFR
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY IN THE NIGHT...WITH VFR
PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME RAIN IN AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SHOULD SEE
RAIN WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ARE STILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW. DID CHANGE THE
END OF THE SOUTHERN ZONE ADVISORY TO 00Z...AS WINDS SHOULD BE EASING
BY THEN.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MARQUARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
146 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 132 AM EDT...THE LATEST KENX AND REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE A
QUICKER RETURN OF RAIN AND MOISTURE FROM THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE SE PA/MD CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...AND ALONG THE FRONTAL
AXIS. THE TRENDS FROM THE LATEST HRRR IS FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE RAINFALL TO GET TO THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES THIS
MORNING /08-11Z/. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE USED...EXCEPT OVER THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE CATEGORICAL VALUES WERE USED. A
QUICK QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER THE
SE EXTREME OF THE AREA.
MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND U40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S AND L40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR THE DELMARVA WILL BRING
ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD TO JUST ABOUT KALB
THIS MORNING. SO EXPECTING STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS FOR KPOU AND KPSF...WITH KALB
RIGHT ON THE EDGE. RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF KGFL. STEADY
RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA.
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR...LIKELY
DETERIORATING TO PREVAILING IFR BY AROUND 08Z OR 09Z...EXCEPT AT
KGFL WHERE ONLY OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS CIGS RISE TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT IFR CIGS COULD LINGER
AT KPSF MUCH OF THE DAY. VSBYS SHOULD BE MUCH IMPROVED FROM MID
MORNING ON.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY N-NW AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.
MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
132 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 132 AM EDT...THE LATEST KENX AND REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE A
QUICKER RETURN OF RAIN AND MOISTURE FROM THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE SE PA/MD CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...AND ALONG THE FRONTAL
AXIS. THE TRENDS FROM THE LATEST HRRR IS FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE RAINFALL TO GET TO THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES THIS
MORNING /08-11Z/. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE USED...EXCEPT OVER THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE CATEGORICAL VALUES WERE USED. A
QUICK QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER THE
SE EXTREME OF THE AREA.
MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND U40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S AND L40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS HAVE THINNED
IN SOME AREAS WHILE REMAINING OVERCAST AND IFR IN OTHERS. HAVE
GENERALLY TRENDED THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO NOT ONLY REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS BUT A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN MOVING IN AT KPOU LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE. IT
WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY TO SEE REAL IMPROVEMENT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 21Z TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.
MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1222 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...
215 PM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN IL...AS
DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID/UPR 30S ACROSS FAR NORTH
CENTRAL IL. FURTHER SOUTH DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 40 THE
LOWER 40S. CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED MINIMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS WEST OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA.
JUST BEYOND PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON THE DIURNAL CUMULUS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE...WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS DIMINISHING
TO AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY RADIATE INTO THE LOWER 40S. HOWEVER
AREAS THAT HAVE HAD DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON FALL INTO THE MIDDLE
30S...TEMPS TONIGHT COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S BETWEEN ROCKFORD
AND WAUKEGAN DOWN TO DEKALB. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST WORDING
OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY... BROAD SFC RIDGING WILL CONSOLIDATE TO A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS...WHICH WILL ALLOW A WEST/EAST GRADIENT TO
DEVELOP MIDDAY TUESDAY. WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY
TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 50S AND EVENTUALLY MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN IL. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AS WELL...WITH THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TURNING TOWARDS
A SHORTWAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND A TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ARRIVING AROUND THE EVENING HOURS FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
248 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
NOAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PACIFIC JET COMING ONSHORE IN THE
WESTERN US BEING FORCED NORTHWARD INTO CANADA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH HELPING TO CURVE THIS JET ANTI-CYCLONICALLY AROUND WESTERN
CANADA. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS JET CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD IN
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL BE
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET AS 500 MB HEIGHTS FALL
IMPRESSIVELY DURING CYCLOGENESIS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PULL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA. GIVEN THE RAPID UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ALONG THE LINE OF SHOWERS.
HEIGHT FALLS TO NEAR 540 DAM ARE PROJECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND
H85 TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. COLD AIR OF
THIS NATURE FALLS INTO THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF ILX/DVN SOUNDINGS
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY. GIVEN THESE ANOMALIES...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS
ONLY HITTING THE UPPER 40S. WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE CENTER OF THE 500 MB LOW PASSING OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...EXPECT WEAK CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
GRAUPEL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL SHOCK WILL COME WITH
THE NEAR FREEZING CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKIES MAY CLEAR
OUT SOME...BUT SURFACE TO H85 RH REMAINS ABOVE 80 PERCENT NEAR THE
LAKE. LUCKILY THE WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE 5-10KT THANKS TO A
LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT. IF EITHER OF THESE TWO INGREDIENTS GO
AWAY IN FUTURE FORECASTS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP 5 DEGREES COOLER.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A PSEUDO OMEGA
BLOCK PATTERN ADVANCING AND SHRINKING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE
CONUS. EXPECT A SHARP INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WILL BE ONGOING. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
BECOME STATIONARY. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN WHILE
KEEPING A PERSISTENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DAYS 6-7
FORECAST.
MM
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS AS THIS HAPPENS...BECOMING GUSTY
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BY AROUND 06Z TUESDAY EVENING
THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE IL/WI STATE LINE...THOUGH THERE IS
STILL A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO VARIOUS TIMING
SOLUTIONS FROM THE MODELS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
THE TERMINALS SOMETIME DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY AND BECOME GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN...WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 KT RANGE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL...WITH LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
248 PM CDT
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL KEEP CALM
CONDITIONS PRESENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN LAKE
TO LAND TEMPERATURES WILL ASSIST IN STABILITY OVER THE LAKE AS
WELL. ON TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT BEFORE SHARPLY SHIFTING NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW GUSTS IN THE UPPER 20S INTO WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING THAT
FRONTAL FEATURE...A STABLE HIGH PRESSURE REGIME IS EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND.
MM
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1124 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
The upper shortwave departing to the east along with the arrival
of dry air from near Lake Michigan has allowed clouds to clear out
in our northeast counties early this evening. Farther NW of
Peoria and Galesburg where diurnal cumulus were more prevalent,
clouds are also decreasing in coverage in general. HRRR output
remains very optimistic that clearing with push quickly east
across our forecast area by sunrise Tuesday. Have sped up the
clearing in the forecast for tonight. Will monitor trends closely,
as night-time clearing can be more troublesome than daytime
clearing trends, due to subsidence inversions and decoupling of
low level winds.
Spotty showers or sprinkles will still be possible in any cloud
cover as the surface trough slowly drifts south toward southern
IL. Will keep isolated rain chances going in the south, with
diminishing coverage from NW to SE the rest of the night.
Have trimmed a degree or two from the overnight lows to account
for possible earlier clearing. Lower 40s appear likely in
locations north of I-72, especially in a areas where clearing has
already developed this evening. Lows should bottom out in the
upper 40s southeast of I-70 where clouds linger the longest.
Updated forecast info is already available.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Main short-term forecast concern will be timing of potential
clearing tonight. While the main surface boundary has dropped south
of the Ohio River, a trailing upper trough extending from Wisconsin
southwestward to Kansas has provided enough synoptic lift to produce
widespread overcast conditions today. Visible satellite loops show
the low cloud cover pivoting southward on the back side of a subtle
upper wave currently over central Illinois. As this feature tracks
further eastward, think clouds will gradually dissipate/clear the
Illinois River Valley this evening. Due to trajectory of cloud
cover and relatively light flow, clouds will likely hold throughout
the entire night along/east of the I-57 corridor. May see a few
isolated light showers this evening: however, most locations will
remain dry. Overnight low temperatures will range from the lower
40s northwest of the Illinois River where clearing will occur
earliest...to around 50 degrees far southeast around Robinson and
Lawrenceville.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Cyclonic flow will continue over the area through Wed. A lull in the
pcpn chances will be seen Tuesday as CWA will be in between troughs
rotating through the area. However, will still keep a slight chance
of showers in the east and southeast Tuesday due to a 500mb trough
moving south through the area...just without any surface reflection.
A bigger and more dominate trough will drop into the area Tue night
through Wed. Pcpn will start in the north Tue evening and then move
south through the area the remainder of the night and then in the
east on Wed. Isolated thunder will also be possible given greater
lapse rates due to cold 500mb temps moving over the area in
association with the upper level low. The pcpn will move off to the
east Wed night, which will allow high pressure to build into the
region with dry weather and slowly warming temps for Thur through
Fri. This surface high pressure ridge will get flattened by the end
of the week as another frontal system drops into the area for the
weekend. With warm and moist air being advected into the area Friday
and Saturday, will be plenty of instability for thunderstorms along
and ahead of the front Sat night through Monday. The front does seem
to hang around the area through the weekend since there will be an
upper level low just east of the US and another one over the
southwest US.
Temps will remain below normal most of the week, but begin to warm
back up as the high pressure that builds in Thursday moves off to
the east, bringing back southerly winds. The warmer temps will
continue through the weekend and into the beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
The clearing line has advanced south late this evening, with no
ceiling anymore at PIA, BMI and CMI. VFR ceilings remain at SPI
and DEC at 7-8K FT, but even those ceilings should erode shortly
after 06z as the upper shortwave shifts east of the region and
drier air continues to work in from the north. Scattered cumulus
will develop by mid morning and may periodically go broken with
bases remaining above MVFR levels through afternoon. A sprinkle or
two can not be ruled out during the flare-up of cumulus during the
day, but most areas will remain dry.
Winds will become light and variable tonight as a weak high
pressure ridge shifts into Illinois overnight. Winds tomorrow will
veer to the WNW and climb to 10-13 kts by mid-afternoon on Tuesday,
ahead of a cold front approaching from the north. Winds will
weaken below 10kt Tue eve as they back to the west-southwest.
Rain showers could develop near the northern terminals of PIA,
BMI, and CMI late in this TAF period, but the better chances will
hold off until after 06z Tuesday night.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1238 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TUESDAY.
A NEW LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WATERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TO COASTAL
AREAS. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH OVERNIGHT/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
AREA OF RAIN IS QUICKLY MOVING NE PER THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. MOST
AREAS TO THE SW HAVE BEGUN TO DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN AS WELL. SOME
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE
LATEST RUN OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR 3KM MODEL DOING WELL W/THE SETUP.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA.
AS IT DOES SO, TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE N AND W AS TEMPS FALL
BACK INTO THE LOW 30S. ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS TO THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRATIFORM RAIN HAS FINALLY REACHED THE STATE AS OF AN HR AGO.
PATCHY RAIN CONTS ACRS THE NORTH ALONG SFC TROF. EXPECT STEADY
RAIN WL MV INTO CWA SHORTLY AND WL OVERSPREAD AREA INTO THE EVNG
HRS AHD OF POTENT S/WV LIFTING INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD
LO-LVL MOISTURE WL CONTINUE AS PCPN PULLS EAST INTO CANADA LVG
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG PRESENT DRG THE OVRNGT. QPF AMNTS THRU MRNG
WL RANGE FM 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES, LOCALLY HIGHER IN DOWNEAST AREAS
WHERE PW VALUES INCREASE TO NR 1.00 INCH AND 25-30KT LLJ WL BE
PRESENT THRU EARLY EVNG.
MAY SEE A VRY BRIEF TIMEFRAME FOR LGT SNOW TO MIX IN, MAINLY ACRS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NW AROOSTOOK. MIN TEMPS WL BE ARND 33F ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BRDR SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
A DUSTING.
EXPECT TO SEE LOW CLDS AND FOG LINGERING THRU TUE MRNG WITH LITTLE
PCPN RMNG. MAXES ON TUE WL LKLY APPCH NORMAL VALUES WITH VRY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CLD AIR BEING PULLED IN ON NRLY FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL, NOT TOO BAD FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN WEDGED
BACK INTO MAINE. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, EJECTING SHORTWAVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST AS IT DOES SO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HAVING A HARD TIME
DECIDING EXACTLY WHAT WILL BECOME OF THESE SHORTWAVES. THE 02/12Z
NAM AND 02/00Z ECMWF TAKE THE SURFACE LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
PERHAPS JUST BRUSH COASTAL AREAS WITH SOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, THE 02Z/12Z GFS AND GEM BRING THE
SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO SHORE, SPREADING A DECENT SWATH OF RAIN INTO
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE WITH A
CONSENSUS BLEND FOR POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE DIFFERENCES, WHICH
LEAD TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A MATURE LOW OVER DELMARVA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT EXTENDING NE THROUGH NRN MAINE...WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER
MAKER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW WILL VERTICALLY STACK
WITH THE UPPER LOW AND REMAIN STATIONARY OVER DELMARVA/NJ THROUGH
EARLY SAT MRNG...THEN START DRIFTING OUT TO SEA. A NEW LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE JAMES BAY REGION...AND MOVE INTO WRN MAINE
EARLY SUN MRNG...AND EAST OF MAINE SUN AFTERNOON. THOUGH THERE ARE
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...THEY ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
LOADED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.
LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. USED THE WINDGUST
BY FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL BE IFR-MVFR NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR
KHUL NORTH TO KFVE WILL LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT. ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE IFR OVERNIGHT IN -DZ AND FOG BEFORE RISING TO LOW MVFR BY MID
MORNING. FURTHER IMPROVMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES, WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY LOWER TO BELOW 3000 FT WITH VISIBILITIES HOVERING IN THE
MVFR RANGE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 4-5 FEET ON THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING. EXPECT WAVES WILL REMAIN AROUND 5FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS THRU 09Z. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING BY OFFSHORE. AT THIS TIME, A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KT LOOK POSSIBLE, BUT OVERALL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. IF ANY HEADLINES ARE NEEDED,
IT WOULD BE A LOW-END SCA.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
513 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN
MANITOBA INTO THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NW
ONTARIO WILL BE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS
FCST IT TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGE HAS MOVED SE IN ADVANCE OF
TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO. SOME MID-LVL WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE SPILLED INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN
UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
TODAY...MODELS SHOW THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 250-300 MB
JET MAX NOSING INTO MN. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE 200-500 J/KG
RANGE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7C OR GREATER MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA...OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF
SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHRA MAKING IT
INTO THE CNTRL AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES
INTO THE 25-35 PCT RANGE COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS FOR
MAINLY THE WRN/CENTRAL INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH FACTORS ARE MARGINAL FOR
MEETING LOCAL CRITERIA DECIDED TO ISSUE A WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
STATEMENT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF ELEVATED WILDFIRE
CONCERNS/POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA AS FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY E OF THE
REGION. CAA WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS. COULD
SEE NORTH WINDS GUST 25-30 MPH OVERNIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FM
KEWEENAW EAST TO WHITEFISH POINT. LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
WITH ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT COULD ALSO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT -SHSN TO MIX IN WITH -SHRA/-DZ MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NCNTRL. EXPECT COVERAGE OF -SHRA TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
MID-LVL DRYING AS SHALLOW MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW -10C ISOTHERM WL
SUPPORT MORE -DZ.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WEDNESDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS PRECIP WILL
STALL OVER LOWER MI ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...UPSLOPE FLOW
WITH N TO NNW WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY COMPARED TO TODAY. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
INLAND...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC LOW ACROSS LOWER MI TO NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND A LAKE-INDUCED MESO-HIGH ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL RESULT IN N TO NNW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CENTRAL AND
EAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WAA PRECIP
ACROSS THE FAR WEST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD AS AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMS ACROSS THE
CONUS. WITH THE RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES...WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE TRENDED
UP WITH TEMPS FOR FRI GIVEN IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS AND H8 TEMPS
AROUND 15C FOR THE WEST. SHOULD SEE A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR
WEST HALF CRACK THE 80F MARK...WHILE TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE LOWER
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS FASTER TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
FRONT NOW CLEARING THE CWA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH A RESIDUAL EML FROM FRIDAY SUPPORT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME. SAT WILL BRING
COOLER CONDITIONS...BUT THE CHANGE WONT BE AS DRASTIC AS WILL BE THE
CASE BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS THEN MODERATE
MONDAY AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITION BELOW
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WSW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH
WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
505 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN
MANITOBA INTO THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NW
ONTARIO WILL BE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS
FCST IT TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGE HAS MOVED SE IN ADVANCE OF
TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO. SOME MID-LVL WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE SPILLED INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN
UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
TODAY...MODELS SHOW THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 250-300 MB
JET MAX NOSING INTO MN. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE 200-500 J/KG
RANGE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7C OR GREATER MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA...OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF
SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHRA MAKING IT
INTO THE CNTRL AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES
INTO THE 25-35 PCT RANGE COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS FOR
MAINLY THE WRN INTERIOR. GIVEN THAT FACTORS WERE MARGINAL FOR
MEETING LOCAL CRITERIA DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT BUT WILL PLAY UP STRONGER WORDING IN FWF AND HWO
PRODUCTS.
TONIGHT...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA AS FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY E OF THE
REGION. CAA WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS. COULD
SEE NORTH WINDS GUST 25-30 MPH OVERNIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FM
KEWEENAW EAST TO WHITEFISH POINT. LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
WITH ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT COULD ALSO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT -SHSN TO MIX IN WITH -SHRA/-DZ MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NCNTRL. EXPECT COVERAGE OF -SHRA TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
MID-LVL DRYING AS SHALLOW MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW -10C ISOTHERM WL
SUPPORT MORE -DZ.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WEDNESDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS PRECIP WILL
STALL OVER LOWER MI ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...UPSLOPE FLOW
WITH N TO NNW WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY COMPARED TO TODAY. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
INLAND...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC LOW ACROSS LOWER MI TO NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND A LAKE-INDUCED MESO-HIGH ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL RESULT IN N TO NNW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CENTRAL AND
EAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WAA PRECIP
ACROSS THE FAR WEST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD AS AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMS ACROSS THE
CONUS. WITH THE RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES...WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE TRENDED
UP WITH TEMPS FOR FRI GIVEN IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS AND H8 TEMPS
AROUND 15C FOR THE WEST. SHOULD SEE A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR
WEST HALF CRACK THE 80F MARK...WHILE TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE LOWER
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS FASTER TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
FRONT NOW CLEARING THE CWA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH A RESIDUAL EML FROM FRIDAY SUPPORT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME. SAT WILL BRING
COOLER CONDITIONS...BUT THE CHANGE WONT BE AS DRASTIC AS WILL BE THE
CASE BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS THEN MODERATE
MONDAY AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITION BELOW
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WSW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH
WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
416 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN MANITOBA INTO
THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO NRN
MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY HAS BROUGHT LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE TO UPPER
MI WITH INLAND CU INLAND WEST AND NEAR LAKE MI OVER THE EAST.
TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE SE LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NRN ONTARIO. ADVANCING WAA MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING FROM DEVELOPING SW
GRADIENT WIND BETWEEN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING TROUGH
SHOULD ALLOW FALLING TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN CLIMB TOWARD
SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
CENTRAL AND EAST. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE 40 NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WEST.
TUESDAY...THE VIGOROUS NRN MANITOBA SHRTWV TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INTO THE NRN LAKES BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH
THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 250-300 MB JET. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE
200-400 J/KG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT
SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE CNTRL
AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES... TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES INTO THE
25-35 PCT RANGE WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WEDNESDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS PRECIP WILL
STALL OVER LOWER MI ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...UPSLOPE FLOW
WITH N TO NNW WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY COMPARED TO TODAY. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
INLAND...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC LOW ACROSS LOWER MI TO NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND A LAKE-INDUCED MESO-HIGH ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL RESULT IN N TO NNW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CENTRAL AND
EAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WAA PRECIP
ACROSS THE FAR WEST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD AS AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMS ACROSS THE
CONUS. WITH THE RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES...WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE TRENDED
UP WITH TEMPS FOR FRI GIVEN IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS AND H8 TEMPS
AROUND 15C FOR THE WEST. SHOULD SEE A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR
WEST HALF CRACK THE 80F MARK...WHILE TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE LOWER
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS FASTER TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
FRONT NOW CLEARING THE CWA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH A RESIDUAL EML FROM FRIDAY SUPPORT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME. SAT WILL BRING
COOLER CONDITIONS...BUT THE CHANGE WONT BE AS DRASTIC AS WILL BE THE
CASE BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS THEN MODERATE
MONDAY AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITION BELOW
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO
20 KNOTS. AS RIDGE SAGS SE TONIGHT...WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME
N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH WINDS TO
LESS THAN 20KT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
324 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN MANITOBA INTO
THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO NRN
MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY HAS BROUGHT LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE TO UPPER
MI WITH INLAND CU INLAND WEST AND NEAR LAKE MI OVER THE EAST.
TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE SE LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NRN ONTARIO. ADVANCING WAA MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING FROM DEVELOPING SW
GRADIENT WIND BETWEEN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING TROUGH
SHOULD ALLOW FALLING TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN CLIMB TOWARD
SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
CENTRAL AND EAST. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE 40 NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WEST.
TUESDAY...THE VIGOROUS NRN MANITOBA SHRTWV TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INTO THE NRN LAKES BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH
THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 250-300 MB JET. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE
200-400 J/KG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT
SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE CNTRL
AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES... TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES INTO THE
25-35 PCT RANGE WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z WED THAT
DIGS SOUTHWARD ON WED AND DIGS A DEEP TROUGH THAT AFFECTS THE EAST
COAST 00Z FRI. THE NAM TAKES SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE CWA 00Z WED AND MOVES IT OUT ON WED.
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL AND WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES. DID KEEP PCPN
IN FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AND STILL LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL. KEPT IT
DRY FOR WED NIGHT AND THEN LOOKED LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SLIGHT
POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR THU MORNING.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 500 MB TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS
AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS 12Z FRI. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES 12Z FRI THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE
AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT AND MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
ON MON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITION BELOW
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO
20 KNOTS. AS RIDGE SAGS SE TONIGHT...WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME
N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH WINDS TO
LESS THAN 20KT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...- NONE -
MARINE...VOSS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 409 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
Areas of fog have developed overnight generally along and
southeast of a Kirksville to St. Joseph line. A few of these
locations, especially across the extreme southeast portion of the
CWA where skies remain clear, have seen visibilities dropping below
a 1/4 mile at times. Expect fog to begin to mix out around 13Z;
however, with light winds expected for much of the day, fog may
linger a bit longer in some locations.
A trough digging towards the northern Southern Plains will bring a
few clouds to the area today, but otherwise dry weather is finally
here. Despite the trough moving through the region today, daytime
highs should still be able to climb into the upper 60s due in part
to surface ridging still in place. A weak cold front will swing
through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but with limited cold
air behind the front, afternoon temperatures will be able to quickly
rebound into the upper 60s and low 70s. A few showers may develop
across north-central Missouri as the front moves through, but with
main vort max east of the CWA, the bulk of any convective
development will also remain east.
Upper level trough positioned across the Northeast and another
trough inland along the California coast, will allow upper level
ridging to build over the west-central US. Even with the CWA in more
of the northwest flow pattern, temperatures will gradually warm
through the week...approaching the upper 70s and maybe low 80s by
Friday. Ridge will begin to break down Friday evening and Saturday
as western trough begins to eject into the Great Basin. This system
will be our next decent shot for rain chances Sunday into Monday.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Clearing sky conditions, light winds, and cooling temperatures has
resulted in MVFR to LIFR fog for areas east of the terminals as of
Monday night. Terminals should follow suit overnight with MVFR to
possibly IFR fog as temperatures continue to cool. Conditions will
improve near daybreak as light winds return to northwesterly through
Tuesday afternoon and evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...PMM
Aviation...Welsh
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
408 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
In the short term, concern will be duration of fog that has
developed over portions of central MO. Cloud cover and slightly
drier air advecting into that region is complicating the forecast
and increasing the uncertainty as to how long any fog will persist.
Will go with a Dense Fog Adv thru about 13z for portions of central
MO and address changes as needed.
Otherwise, main concern today will be cloud cover, and therefore,
also temps today.
Mdls are in fairly good agreement with phasing of the upper trof and
pushing swd thru the area today. This shud be just enuf support to
generate isod SHRA again this afternoon. However, do not believe
that coverage will be as great as yesterday and shud be confined to
the srn third or so of the CWA. This same area will see much more
cloud cover than the remainder of the area. Have therefore trended
aob the cooler guidance for today in these areas. Elsewhere, trended
twd a compromise.
Tilly
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
While upper level shortwave exits forecast area, secondary cold
front to approach region this evening. Will see activity continue to
fire up along the boundary, moving into northern portions of forecast
area by 04z Wednesday. Some decent instability, so would not be
surprised to see showers with some isolated thunderstorms as
activity sinks south tonight. Best chances will be along and east
of Mississippi River. Otherwise, it will be a bit milder with lows
in the mid 40s to low 50s.
On Wednesday, cold front to exit forecast area with some lingering
precipitation over eastern portions of forecast area. With northerly
flow over region, will see highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, just a
bit below normal.
Region dries out for remainder of work week as surface ridge builds
in. Temperatures to moderate, warming back up into the mid to upper
70s on Friday, then into the upper 70s to low 80s on Saturday.
No major changes to forecast for last half of weekend as next system
moves into the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be on the
increase Saturday night and persist through Monday.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Surface ridge was just northwest of our area this evening with
gradual clearing from the northwest. This clearing trend should
continue overnight at UIN and the St Louis metro area. Low stratus
and fog developed quickly at COU after the sky cleared out this
evening and this may happen at the other taf sites as well. The
stratus and fog will dissipate Tuesday morning followed by the
development of diurnal cumulus cloudiness, especially in COU and
the St Louis metro area with VFR conditions. Light surface wind
late tonight, then a west-northwest wind on Tuesday. The low
level clouds will clear out Tuesday evening with the wind backing
around to a southwest direction.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR, low level cloud ceiling may gradually
clear out overnight with the development of stratus clouds and
fog towards morning. This stratus and fog will dissipate by late
Tuesday morning followed by the development of diurnal cumulus
clouds late Tuesday morning and afternoon in the VFR catagory.
These clouds should dissipate Tuesday evening. A light surface
wind late tonight will increase to around 7 kts from a northwest
direction Tuesday afternoon. The surface wind will back around to
a southwest direction Tuesday evening.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 67 53 66 46 / 20 20 10 0
Quincy 68 49 64 43 / 10 30 5 0
Columbia 67 50 67 44 / 10 5 5 0
Jefferson City 68 50 69 45 / 10 5 5 0
Salem 65 49 64 44 / 10 40 30 5
Farmington 63 46 67 43 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Moniteau MO.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Fog in the main concern early this morning. Clouds continue over
the eastern cwfa, but where it has cleared over the west we have
seen shallow fog which has been dense at times. The visibility at
airport sites has been bouncing around which indicates shallow
and/or patchy fog at those sites. Low lying terrain, hollows,
creek and river valleys/lakes will have the best chances for
seeing dense fog. After some collaboration with other offices will
continue to monitor for a possible short fused fog advisory. Have
already bumped up the fog wording in other messaging.
Another upper level shortwave will move through the area, exiting
late this afternoon/early this evening. Have more clouds and
chances for rw--/sprinkles over our eastern counties to account
for this. It will remain unseasonably cool as we remain on the
"troughy" downwind side of a large upper level blocking ridge
over western NOAM.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
The high amplitude ridge over the west will edge slowly east this
week. One more shortwave will dig south into the OH Vly Wed with a
dry frontal passage for us. A warming trend will then develop late
in the week. Wed/Thu will be cooler than normal with lows well
down in the 40s, especially over the eastern cwfa. Friday should
see a big diurnal swing in temperatures with lows in the 40s and
highs pushing 80 deg F in some spots. With the upper ridge
overhead Sat, most areas should reach the low 80s.
There is good general agreement with global models of a closed
upper low moving slowly out of the Rockies and into the Plains
early next week. Subtle lead shortwaves will move northeast
into/through our area during this time as the upper ridge flattens
out and pushes off to our east. Details on how or in what manner
the upper system moves into the Plains are still in doubt, but
generally we should see rain/tstm chances increase Sunday/Mon with
a persistent fetch developing out of the western Gulf and
increased general lift with the approach of the longwave trough
and lead shortwaves.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Confidence is increasing that fog will develop overnight due to
clearing skies and nearly calm winds. This includes increasing
potential for IFR and even LIFR fog...especially around Joplin and
Springfield. Confidence is slightly less around Branson.
Fog will then lift by mid-morning on Tuesday with VFR returning by
around midday (if not sooner). Winds will be light out of the
northwest on Tuesday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Fog in the main concern early this morning. Clouds continue over
the eastern cwfa, but where it has cleared over the west we have
seen shallow fog which has been dense at times. The visibility at
airport sites has been bouncing around which indicates shallow
and/or patchy fog at those sites. Low lying terrain, hollows,
creek and river valleys/lakes will have the best chances for
seeing dense fog. After some collaboration with other offices will
continue to monitor for a possible short fused fog advisory. Have
already bumped up the fog wording in other messaging.
Another upper level shortwave will move through the area, exiting
late this afternoon/early this evening. Have more clouds and
chances for rw--/sprinkles over our eastern counties to account
for this. It will remain unseasonably cool as we remain on the
"troughy" downwind side of a large upper level blocking ridge
over western NOAM.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
The high amplitude ridge over the west will edge slowly east this
week. One more shortwave will dig south into the OH Vly Wed with a
dry frontal passage for us. A warming trend will then develop late
in the week. Wed/Thu will be cooler than normal with lows well
down in the 40s, especially over the eastern cwfa. Friday should
see a big diurnal swing in temperatures with lows in the 40s and
highs pushing 80 deg F in some spots. With the upper ridge
overhead Sat, most areas should reach the low 80s.
There is good general agreement with global models of a closed
upper low moving slowly out of the Rockies and into the Plains
early next week. Subtle lead shortwaves will move northeast
into/through our area during this time as the upper ridge flattens
out and pushes off to our east. Details on how or in what manner
the upper system moves into the Plains are still in doubt, but
generally we should see rain/tstm chances increase Sunday/Mon with
a persistent fetch developing out of the western Gulf and
increased general lift with the approach of the longwave trough
and lead shortwaves.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Confidence is increasing that fog will develop overnight due to
clearing skies and nearly calm winds. This includes increasing
potential for IFR and even LIFR fog...especially around Joplin and
Springfield. Confidence is slightly less around Branson.
Fog will then lift by mid-morning on Tuesday with VFR returning by
around midday (if not sooner). Winds will be light out of the
northwest on Tuesday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
...Updated Public and Aviation...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Inserted a mention of patchy fog over all but south-central
Missouri for the overnight period. Temperature/dew point
depressions are already below five degrees where skies have
cleared. With winds expected to be nearly calm, fog seems like a
good bet. Coverage and intensity may need to be adjusted depending
on sky trends across south-central Missouri. It`s not out of the
question that a Dense Fog Advisory may eventually be needed...
especially across western Missouri and extreme southeastern
Kansas.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Lots of stratus/stratocu remain across the area with several
disturbances embedded within the cyclonic flow aloft across the
region. Measurable rainfall has pushed off to the southeast, more
in line with the surface frontal boundary. The cloud cover has
kept temperatures in the 50s to low 60s across the area.
The main forecast focus for the work week will be with
temperatures and with the next chance of rain as we head into the
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Cyclonic flow aloft will continue both tonight and Tuesday with
several waves of upper level energy pushing through the area. This
will likely keep a good deal of cloud cover over the area through
the short term period. Temperatures will be on the cool side again
tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s. Highs should climb back
into the mid to upper 60s on Tuesday. Moisture will be limited, so
will keep precipitation chances below 15 percent at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
By Tuesday night, the main shortwave will have pushed through the
area and should start to see clearing. The main upper low will
then track to the southeast across the Ohio valley region. The SGF
CWA should remain in northerly flow aloft with surface high
pressure over the region, so will see some cool nights both
Tuesday and Wednesday night with lows in the 40s. Will start to
see a warmup for the end of the work week as upper level ridging
builds into the area. By Friday, the upper ridge will be overhead
with low level warm advection starting to develop. Temperatures
should start to climb back into the 70s on Thursday and well into
the 70s by Friday.
As we head into the weekend, energy from a large closed low in the
Rockies will start lifting into the area from the southwest and we
will start to see showers and thunderstorms developing over the
area. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms look to be
late in the weekend into early next week as the main shortwave
will begin to push into the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Confidence is increasing that fog will develop overnight due to
clearing skies and nearly calm winds. This includes increasing
potential for IFR and even LIFR fog...especially around Joplin and
Springfield. Confidence is slightly less around Branson.
Fog will then lift by mid-morning on Tuesday with VFR returning by
around midday (if not sooner). Winds will be light out of the
northwest on Tuesday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
...Updated Public and Aviation...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Inserted a mention of patchy fog over all but south-central
Missouri for the overnight period. Temperature/dew point
depressions are already below five degrees where skies have
cleared. With winds expected to be nearly calm, fog seems like a
good bet. Coverage and intensity may need to be adjusted depending
on sky trends across south-central Missouri. It`s not out of the
question that a Dense Fog Advisory may eventually be needed...
especially across western Missouri and extreme southeastern
Kansas.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Lots of stratus/stratocu remain across the area with several
disturbances embedded within the cyclonic flow aloft across the
region. Measurable rainfall has pushed off to the southeast, more
in line with the surface frontal boundary. The cloud cover has
kept temperatures in the 50s to low 60s across the area.
The main forecast focus for the work week will be with
temperatures and with the next chance of rain as we head into the
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Cyclonic flow aloft will continue both tonight and Tuesday with
several waves of upper level energy pushing through the area. This
will likely keep a good deal of cloud cover over the area through
the short term period. Temperatures will be on the cool side again
tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s. Highs should climb back
into the mid to upper 60s on Tuesday. Moisture will be limited, so
will keep precipitation chances below 15 percent at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
By Tuesday night, the main shortwave will have pushed through the
area and should start to see clearing. The main upper low will
then track to the southeast across the Ohio valley region. The SGF
CWA should remain in northerly flow aloft with surface high
pressure over the region, so will see some cool nights both
Tuesday and Wednesday night with lows in the 40s. Will start to
see a warmup for the end of the work week as upper level ridging
builds into the area. By Friday, the upper ridge will be overhead
with low level warm advection starting to develop. Temperatures
should start to climb back into the 70s on Thursday and well into
the 70s by Friday.
As we head into the weekend, energy from a large closed low in the
Rockies will start lifting into the area from the southwest and we
will start to see showers and thunderstorms developing over the
area. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms look to be
late in the weekend into early next week as the main shortwave
will begin to push into the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Confidence is increasing that fog will develop overnight due to
clearing skies and nearly calm winds. This includes increasing
potential for IFR and even LIFR fog...especially around Joplin and
Springfield. Confidence is slightly less around Branson.
Fog will then lift by mid-morning on Tuesday with VFR returning by
around midday (if not sooner). Winds will be light out of the
northwest on Tuesday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1125 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Weak shortwave trough currently over western Missouri will move
across the CWA this evening. This may be enough for a few light
showers or sprinkles over the area this evening. Otherwise, expect
the rest of the night to be dry as some weak subsidence works into
the area. MOS guidance is in good agreement and looks reasonable
for lows.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
(Tuesday through Thursday)
GFS/ECMWF/NAM are still in agreement that upper pattern will be
highly amplified over North America at midweek with north-
northwesterly flow setting up over Missouri and Illinois. Still
looks like another upper trough will pass through the area on
Tuesday with only limited low level moisture and forcing, so will go
with a mainly dry forecast at this point. Models are in good
agreement that an upper low will drop through the Great Lakes into
the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. The attendant cold front will pass
through the area late Tuesday night into early Wednesday night, and
the GFS/NAM shows the best low level moisture and forcing will still
limit rain chances to just the eastern part of the CWA. Still expect
Thursday to be dry as the upper low moves off to the southeast as
subsidence builds in over the area.
Temperatures will remain below normal the next few days as we will
be mainly in cold air advection and as 850mb temperatures stay
between 0-5C. MOS guidance temperatures are in good agreement and
are mainly in the 60s.
(Friday through Monday)
Upper pattern will begin to transition late week into early next
week as the upper ridge moves across the Midwest and the upper flow
goes from northwesterly to southwesterly. Still expect that Friday
and Saturday will be dry as the upper ridge will move across the
area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase
by Sunday as southwesterly low level flow begins to bring Gulf
moisture back into the area. Both the GFS and ECMWF are showing a
frontal boundary moving south into the area by late Sunday into
Monday that will act as a focus for thunderstorm development.
Temperatures will start out near normal on Friday as the surface
high moves off to our east, but then we will then climb above normal
in the southwesterly low level flow over the weekend. 850mb
temperatures will also climb to around 15C next weekend which
supports temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Surface ridge was just northwest of our area this evening with
gradual clearing from the northwest. This clearing trend should
continue overnight at UIN and the St Louis metro area. Low stratus
and fog developed quickly at COU after the sky cleared out this
evening and this may happen at the other taf sites as well. The
stratus and fog will dissipate Tuesday morning followed by the
development of diurnal cumulus cloudiness, especially in COU and
the St Louis metro area with VFR conditions. Light surface wind
late tonight, then a west-northwest wind on Tuesday. The low
level clouds will clear out Tuesday evening with the wind backing
around to a southwest direction.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR, low level cloud ceiling may gradually
clear out overnight with the development of stratus clouds and
fog towards morning. This stratus and fog will dissipate by late
Tuesday morning followed by the development of diurnal cumulus
clouds late Tuesday morning and afternoon in the VFR catagory.
These clouds should dissipate Tuesday evening. A light surface
wind late tonight will increase to around 7 kts from a northwest
direction Tuesday afternoon. The surface wind will back around to
a southwest direction Tuesday evening.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1042 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Today`s been a bit of a cloudy cool day, with a few instability
showers percolating across the region thanks to a series of troughs
that recently ejected from the Desert Southwest through the Central
Plains. Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows another larger
shortwave trough digging, almost due south, this afternoon through
the northern Plains as it exits the Canadian Plains, which has
reinforced the 500mb weakness noted across the center of the Nation.
However, ultimately this northern Plains shortwave will have little
effect on the sensible forecast other than helping clear the clouds
out.
Tonight the Canadian Plains trough will continue its way south, and
will eventually swing to the southeast later Tuesday. However, this
particular trough is not dragging too much cold air with it, and
therefore will do more to lower humidity values and clear the skies
of the cloud cover that has been hanging out for the past couple of
days than anything else. So, despite the north wind that will
prevail, highs Tuesday are expected to climb to around 70 degrees
thanks to the insolation under sunny skies. And, the weather for the
rest of the work week looks just as nice, if not nicer.
With the exiting of the Canadian shortwave Tuesday a bit of a
blocking pattern looks to set up across the Nation which will induce
a ridge across the Plains as large troughs take up residence on the
East and West Coasts. This will keep our section of the country dry
through Saturday, with highs possibly around 80 degrees by Friday
and Saturday. However, we will have to watch for when the West Coast
trough ejects through the Plains as that will likely result in our
next decent and widespread chance of rain. Current model solutions
point at this possibility occurring as early as Saturday night and
Sunday, but mid-range model solutions for closed circulations --like
the West Coast one expected-- typically slow down as the solutions
get closer to reality. Therefore, confidence in storms arriving as
early as Saturday night is rather low with confidence growing for
Sunday and Monday of next week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Clearing sky conditions, light winds, and cooling temperatures has
resulted in MVFR to LIFR fog for areas east of the terminals as of
Monday night. Terminals should follow suit overnight with MVFR to
possibly IFR fog as temperatures continue to cool. Conditions will
improve near daybreak as light winds return to northwesterly through
Tuesday afternoon and evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
629 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Today`s been a bit of a cloudy cool day, with a few instability
showers percolating across the region thanks to a series of troughs
that recently ejected from the Desert Southwest through the Central
Plains. Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows another larger
shortwave trough digging, almost due south, this afternoon through
the northern Plains as it exits the Canadian Plains, which has
reinforced the 500mb weakness noted across the center of the Nation.
However, ultimately this northern Plains shortwave will have little
effect on the sensible forecast other than helping clear the clouds
out.
Tonight the Canadian Plains trough will continue its way south, and
will eventually swing to the southeast later Tuesday. However, this
particular trough is not dragging too much cold air with it, and
therefore will do more to lower humidity values and clear the skies
of the cloud cover that has been hanging out for the past couple of
days than anything else. So, despite the north wind that will
prevail, highs Tuesday are expected to climb to around 70 degrees
thanks to the insolation under sunny skies. And, the weather for the
rest of the work week looks just as nice, if not nicer.
With the exiting of the Canadian shortwave Tuesday a bit of a
blocking pattern looks to set up across the Nation which will induce
a ridge across the Plains as large troughs take up residence on the
East and West Coasts. This will keep our section of the country dry
through Saturday, with highs possibly around 80 degrees by Friday
and Saturday. However, we will have to watch for when the West Coast
trough ejects through the Plains as that will likely result in our
next decent and widespread chance of rain. Current model solutions
point at this possibility occurring as early as Saturday night and
Sunday, but mid-range model solutions for closed circulations --like
the West Coast one expected-- typically slow down as the solutions
get closer to reality. Therefore, confidence in storms arriving as
early as Saturday night is rather low with confidence growing for
Sunday and Monday of next week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Aside from a few periodic sprinkles this evening, impacts will be
minimal through the forecast period. Light winds will vary until
sunrise as a surface ridge pushes eastward overnight. VFR stratus
will begin to thin out Tuesday morning with light winds becoming
northwesterly.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
629 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Today`s been a bit of a cloudy cool day, with a few instability
showers percolating across the region thanks to a series of troughs
that recently ejected from the Desert Southwest through the Central
Plains. Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows another larger
shortwave trough digging, almost due south, this afternoon through
the northern Plains as it exits the Canadian Plains, which has
reinforced the 500mb weakness noted across the center of the Nation.
However, ultimately this northern Plains shortwave will have little
effect on the sensible forecast other than helping clear the clouds
out.
Tonight the Canadian Plains trough will continue its way south, and
will eventually swing to the southeast later Tuesday. However, this
particular trough is not dragging too much cold air with it, and
therefore will do more to lower humidity values and clear the skies
of the cloud cover that has been hanging out for the past couple of
days than anything else. So, despite the north wind that will
prevail, highs Tuesday are expected to climb to around 70 degrees
thanks to the insolation under sunny skies. And, the weather for the
rest of the work week looks just as nice, if not nicer.
With the exiting of the Canadian shortwave Tuesday a bit of a
blocking pattern looks to set up across the Nation which will induce
a ridge across the Plains as large troughs take up residence on the
East and West Coasts. This will keep our section of the country dry
through Saturday, with highs possibly around 80 degrees by Friday
and Saturday. However, we will have to watch for when the West Coast
trough ejects through the Plains as that will likely result in our
next decent and widespread chance of rain. Current model solutions
point at this possibility occurring as early as Saturday night and
Sunday, but mid-range model solutions for closed circulations --like
the West Coast one expected-- typically slow down as the solutions
get closer to reality. Therefore, confidence in storms arriving as
early as Saturday night is rather low with confidence growing for
Sunday and Monday of next week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Aside from a few periodic sprinkles this evening, impacts will be
minimal through the forecast period. Light winds will vary until
sunrise as a surface ridge pushes eastward overnight. VFR stratus
will begin to thin out Tuesday morning with light winds becoming
northwesterly.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
624 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
...00Z Aviation Update...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Lots of stratus/stratocu remain across the area with several
disturbances embedded within the cyclonic flow aloft across the
region. Measurable rainfall has pushed off to the southeast, more
in line with the surface frontal boundary. The cloud cover has
kept temperatures in the 50s to low 60s across the area.
The main forecast focus for the work week will be with
temperatures and with the next chance of rain as we head into the
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Cyclonic flow aloft will continue both tonight and Tuesday with
several waves of upper level energy pushing through the area. This
will likely keep a good deal of cloud cover over the area through
the short term period. Temperatures will be on the cool side again
tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s. Highs should climb back
into the mid to upper 60s on Tuesday. Moisture will be limited, so
will keep precipitation chances below 15 percent at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
By Tuesday night, the main shortwave will have pushed through the
area and should start to see clearing. The main upper low will
then track to the southeast across the Ohio valley region. The SGF
CWA should remain in northerly flow aloft with surface high
pressure over the region, so will see some cool nights both
Tuesday and Wednesday night with lows in the 40s. Will start to
see a warmup for the end of the work week as upper level ridging
builds into the area. By Friday, the upper ridge will be overhead
with low level warm advection starting to develop. Temperatures
should start to climb back into the 70s on Thursday and well into
the 70s by Friday.
As we head into the weekend, energy from a large closed low in the
Rockies will start lifting into the area from the southwest and we
will start to see showers and thunderstorms developing over the
area. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms look to be
late in the weekend into early next week as the main shortwave
will begin to push into the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Widespread MVFR stratus deck should begin to dissipate with sunset
this evening. By mid to late evening, skies should range from
nearly clear at JLN, to FEW to SCT at SGF and BBG. Later tonight,
fog will be possible where skies start to clear, along with the
potential for stratus building back in at SGF and especially BBG.
IFR potential is very unclear at this time, though BBG should have
the highest probability, and have included a tempo group for 2SM
BR for now. Elsewhere, only took vis down to 3SM, though some
guidance does hint at vis dropping to less than a mile in a few
areas. Will continue to monitor through the evening and amend as
needed.
Any fog/stratus will lift by mid morning Tuesday, with light
north winds through the day.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
624 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
...00Z Aviation Update...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Lots of stratus/stratocu remain across the area with several
disturbances embedded within the cyclonic flow aloft across the
region. Measurable rainfall has pushed off to the southeast, more
in line with the surface frontal boundary. The cloud cover has
kept temperatures in the 50s to low 60s across the area.
The main forecast focus for the work week will be with
temperatures and with the next chance of rain as we head into the
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Cyclonic flow aloft will continue both tonight and Tuesday with
several waves of upper level energy pushing through the area. This
will likely keep a good deal of cloud cover over the area through
the short term period. Temperatures will be on the cool side again
tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s. Highs should climb back
into the mid to upper 60s on Tuesday. Moisture will be limited, so
will keep precipitation chances below 15 percent at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
By Tuesday night, the main shortwave will have pushed through the
area and should start to see clearing. The main upper low will
then track to the southeast across the Ohio valley region. The SGF
CWA should remain in northerly flow aloft with surface high
pressure over the region, so will see some cool nights both
Tuesday and Wednesday night with lows in the 40s. Will start to
see a warmup for the end of the work week as upper level ridging
builds into the area. By Friday, the upper ridge will be overhead
with low level warm advection starting to develop. Temperatures
should start to climb back into the 70s on Thursday and well into
the 70s by Friday.
As we head into the weekend, energy from a large closed low in the
Rockies will start lifting into the area from the southwest and we
will start to see showers and thunderstorms developing over the
area. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms look to be
late in the weekend into early next week as the main shortwave
will begin to push into the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Widespread MVFR stratus deck should begin to dissipate with sunset
this evening. By mid to late evening, skies should range from
nearly clear at JLN, to FEW to SCT at SGF and BBG. Later tonight,
fog will be possible where skies start to clear, along with the
potential for stratus building back in at SGF and especially BBG.
IFR potential is very unclear at this time, though BBG should have
the highest probability, and have included a tempo group for 2SM
BR for now. Elsewhere, only took vis down to 3SM, though some
guidance does hint at vis dropping to less than a mile in a few
areas. Will continue to monitor through the evening and amend as
needed.
Any fog/stratus will lift by mid morning Tuesday, with light
north winds through the day.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
608 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Weak shortwave trough currently over western Missouri will move
across the CWA this evening. This may be enough for a few light
showers or sprinkles over the area this evening. Otherwise, expect
the rest of the night to be dry as some weak subsidence works into
the area. MOS guidance is in good agreement and looks reasonable
for lows.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
(Tuesday through Thursday)
GFS/ECMWF/NAM are still in agreement that upper pattern will be
highly amplified over North America at midweek with north-
northwesterly flow setting up over Missouri and Illinois. Still
looks like another upper trough will pass through the area on
Tuesday with only limited low level moisture and forcing, so will go
with a mainly dry forecast at this point. Models are in good
agreement that an upper low will drop through the Great Lakes into
the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. The attendant cold front will pass
through the area late Tuesday night into early Wednesday night, and
the GFS/NAM shows the best low level moisture and forcing will still
limit rain chances to just the eastern part of the CWA. Still expect
Thursday to be dry as the upper low moves off to the southeast as
subsidence builds in over the area.
Temperatures will remain below normal the next few days as we will
be mainly in cold air advection and as 850mb temperatures stay
between 0-5C. MOS guidance temperatures are in good agreement and
are mainly in the 60s.
(Friday through Monday)
Upper pattern will begin to transition late week into early next
week as the upper ridge moves across the Midwest and the upper flow
goes from northwesterly to southwesterly. Still expect that Friday
and Saturday will be dry as the upper ridge will move across the
area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase
by Sunday as southwesterly low level flow begins to bring Gulf
moisture back into the area. Both the GFS and ECMWF are showing a
frontal boundary moving south into the area by late Sunday into
Monday that will act as a focus for thunderstorm development.
Temperatures will start out near normal on Friday as the surface
high moves off to our east, but then we will then climb above normal
in the southwesterly low level flow over the weekend. 850mb
temperatures will also climb to around 15C next weekend which
supports temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
The cloud ceiling at 2000-4000 feet should gradually rise this
evening with a few sprinkles or light showers possible as an
upper level disturbance moves through the area. Should be VFR by
late evening with even the possibility of the low level cloud
deck scattering out in places late tonight/early Tuesday morning.
There may be some patchy light fog late tonight/early Tuesday
morning. Some diurnal cumulus cloudiness is expected on Tuesday
especially in COU and the St Louis metro area with VFR
conditions. Mainly a northwest wind through the period, albeit
becoming light later this evening.
Specifics for KSTL: The MVFR cigs should become VFR later this
evening. There may be a few sprinkles early this evening. The
cloud ceiling may scatter out late tonight and early Tuesday
morning, but diurnal cumulus clouds will develop late Tuesday
morning and afternoon in the VFR catagory. These clouds should
dissipate Tuesday evening. Northwest wind will become light later
this evening, then increase to around 7 kts Tuesday afternoon. The
surface wind will back around to a southwest direction Tuesday
evening.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
608 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Weak shortwave trough currently over western Missouri will move
across the CWA this evening. This may be enough for a few light
showers or sprinkles over the area this evening. Otherwise, expect
the rest of the night to be dry as some weak subsidence works into
the area. MOS guidance is in good agreement and looks reasonable
for lows.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
(Tuesday through Thursday)
GFS/ECMWF/NAM are still in agreement that upper pattern will be
highly amplified over North America at midweek with north-
northwesterly flow setting up over Missouri and Illinois. Still
looks like another upper trough will pass through the area on
Tuesday with only limited low level moisture and forcing, so will go
with a mainly dry forecast at this point. Models are in good
agreement that an upper low will drop through the Great Lakes into
the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. The attendant cold front will pass
through the area late Tuesday night into early Wednesday night, and
the GFS/NAM shows the best low level moisture and forcing will still
limit rain chances to just the eastern part of the CWA. Still expect
Thursday to be dry as the upper low moves off to the southeast as
subsidence builds in over the area.
Temperatures will remain below normal the next few days as we will
be mainly in cold air advection and as 850mb temperatures stay
between 0-5C. MOS guidance temperatures are in good agreement and
are mainly in the 60s.
(Friday through Monday)
Upper pattern will begin to transition late week into early next
week as the upper ridge moves across the Midwest and the upper flow
goes from northwesterly to southwesterly. Still expect that Friday
and Saturday will be dry as the upper ridge will move across the
area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase
by Sunday as southwesterly low level flow begins to bring Gulf
moisture back into the area. Both the GFS and ECMWF are showing a
frontal boundary moving south into the area by late Sunday into
Monday that will act as a focus for thunderstorm development.
Temperatures will start out near normal on Friday as the surface
high moves off to our east, but then we will then climb above normal
in the southwesterly low level flow over the weekend. 850mb
temperatures will also climb to around 15C next weekend which
supports temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
The cloud ceiling at 2000-4000 feet should gradually rise this
evening with a few sprinkles or light showers possible as an
upper level disturbance moves through the area. Should be VFR by
late evening with even the possibility of the low level cloud
deck scattering out in places late tonight/early Tuesday morning.
There may be some patchy light fog late tonight/early Tuesday
morning. Some diurnal cumulus cloudiness is expected on Tuesday
especially in COU and the St Louis metro area with VFR
conditions. Mainly a northwest wind through the period, albeit
becoming light later this evening.
Specifics for KSTL: The MVFR cigs should become VFR later this
evening. There may be a few sprinkles early this evening. The
cloud ceiling may scatter out late tonight and early Tuesday
morning, but diurnal cumulus clouds will develop late Tuesday
morning and afternoon in the VFR catagory. These clouds should
dissipate Tuesday evening. Northwest wind will become light later
this evening, then increase to around 7 kts Tuesday afternoon. The
surface wind will back around to a southwest direction Tuesday
evening.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
320 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Today`s been a bit of a cloudy cool day, with a few instability
showers percolating across the region thanks to a series of troughs
that recently ejected from the Desert Southwest through the Central
Plains. Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows another larger
shortwave trough digging, almost due south, this afternoon through
the northern Plains as it exits the Canadian Plains, which has
reinforced the 500mb weakness noted across the center of the Nation.
However, ultimately this northern Plains shortwave will have little
effect on the sensible forecast other than helping clear the clouds
out.
Tonight the Canadian Plains trough will continue its way south, and
will eventually swing to the southeast later Tuesday. However, this
particular trough is not dragging too much cold air with it, and
therefore will do more to lower humidity values and clear the skies
of the cloud cover that has been hanging out for the past couple of
days than anything else. So, despite the north wind that will
prevail, highs Tuesday are expected to climb to around 70 degrees
thanks to the insolation under sunny skies. And, the weather for the
rest of the work week looks just as nice, if not nicer.
With the exiting of the Canadian shortwave Tuesday a bit of a
blocking pattern looks to set up across the Nation which will induce
a ridge across the Plains as large troughs take up residence on the
East and West Coasts. This will keep our section of the country dry
through Saturday, with highs possibly around 80 degrees by Friday
and Saturday. However, we will have to watch for when the West Coast
trough ejects through the Plains as that will likely result in our
next decent and widespread chance of rain. Current model solutions
point at this possibility occurring as early as Saturday night and
Sunday, but mid-range model solutions for closed circulations --like
the West Coast one expected-- typically slow down as the solutions
get closer to reality. Therefore, confidence in storms arriving as
early as Saturday night is rather low with confidence growing for
Sunday and Monday of next week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
MVFR ceilings are prevailing at the western Missouri terminals early
this afternoon, but clearing is noted on satellite shifting south and
will spread across the sites by the late afternoon hours with VFR
conditions to prevail afterwards. Expect the north wind to ease up
this evening and back to the west by Tuesday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Weak shortwave trough currently over western Missouri will move
across the CWA this evening. This may be enough to a few light
showers or sprinkles over the area this evening. Otherwise, expect
the rest of the night to be dry as some weak subsidence works into
the area. MOS guidance is in good agreement and looks reasonable
for lows.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
(Tuesday through Thursday)
GFS/ECMWF/NAM are still in agreement that upper pattern will be
highly amplified over North America at midweek with north-
northwesterly flow setting up over Missouri and Illinois. Still
looks like another upper trough will pass through the area on
Tuesday with only limited low level moisture and forcing, so will go
with a mainly dry forecast at this point. Models are in good
agreement that an upper low will drop through the Great Lakes into
the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. The attendant cold front will pass
through the area late Tuesday night into early Wednesday night, and
the GFS/NAM shows the best low level moisture and forcing will still
limit rain chances to just the eastern part of the CWA. Still expect
Thursday to be dry as the upper low moves off to the southeast as
subsidence builds in over the area.
Temperatures will remain below normal the next few days as we will
be mainly in cold air advection and as 850mb temperatures stay
between 0-5C. MOS guidance temperatures are in good agreement and
are mainly in the 60s.
(Friday through Monday)
Upper pattern will begin to transition late week into early next
week as the upper ridge moves across the Midwest and the upper flow
goes from northwesterly to southwesterly. Still expect that Friday
and Saturday will be dry as the upper ridge will move across the
area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase
by Sunday as southwesterly low level flow begins to bring Gulf
moisture back into the area. Both the GFS and ECMWF are showing a
frontal boundary moving south into the area by late Sunday into
Monday that will act as a focus for thunderstorm development.
Temperatures will start out near normal on Friday as the surface
high moves off to our east, but then we will then climb above normal
in the southwesterly low level flow over the weekend. 850mb
temperatures will also climb to around 15C next weekend which
supports temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: MVFR cigs are expected at KUIN/KCOU
through the afternoon before cigs rise to to low-end VFR and
remain there for the rest of the pd. Winds remain either lgt/var
or northwesterly and light.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Brief pds of MVFR cigs are
possible for the next hour or two. Cigs should remain
predominantly low-end VFR for most of the TAF pd. Winds remain
either lgt/var or northwesterly and light.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
225 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Lots of stratus/stratocu remain across the area with several
disturbances embedded within the cyclonic flow aloft across the
region. Measurable rainfall has pushed off to the southeast, more
in line with the surface frontal boundary. The cloud cover has
kept temperatures in the 50s to low 60s across the area.
The main forecast focus for the work week will be with
temperatures and with the next chance of rain as we head into the
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Cyclonic flow aloft will continue both tonight and Tuesday with
several waves of upper level energy pushing through the area. This
will likely keep a good deal of cloud cover over the area through
the short term period. Temperatures will be on the cool side again
tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s. Highs should climb back
into the mid to upper 60s on Tuesday. Moisture will be limited, so
will keep precipitation chances below 15 percent at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
By Tuesday night, the main shortwave will have pushed through the
area and should start to see clearing. The main upper low will
then track to the southeast across the Ohio valley region. The SGF
CWA should remain in northerly flow aloft with surface high
pressure over the region, so will see some cool nights both
Tuesday and Wednesday night with lows in the 40s. Will start to
see a warmup for the end of the work week as upper level ridging
builds into the area. By Friday, the upper ridge will be overhead
with low level warm advection starting to develop. Temperatures
should start to climb back into the 70s on Thursday and well into
the 70s by Friday.
As we head into the weekend, energy from a large closed low in the
Rockies will start lifting into the area from the southwest and we
will start to see showers and thunderstorms developing over the
area. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms look to be
late in the weekend into early next week as the main shortwave
will begin to push into the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
MVFR ceilings will hold on across the area this afternoon for all
TAF sites with a gradual improvement to VFR late afternoon into
this evening. Will mention the possibility of some MVFR light fog
possible tonight with a TEMPO group between 09-12z tonight with 4
to 5 SM light fog possible. VFR conditions will continue into
tomorrow morning. Winds will be light and northwesterly about 10
knots or less.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Griffin
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
100 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Complex and messy upper air pattern remains across the region this
morning. Leading s/w continues to approach the region early this
morning and is responsible for light RA across swrn into central MO.
This area of precip shud continue to move newd thru the area this
morning. Mdls suggest it will dissipate as it moves into the CWA
around sunrise. While this is possible due to the better low level
moisture convergence pushes S of the area, believe the leading s/w
will be sufficient to maintain higher PoPs thru mid-morning.
For the remainder of the day, have kept PoPs in the slight chance
range for now as isod to widely sct SHRA are expected today.
However, coverage may be somewhat higher across nrn half to third
of the CWA as the upper trof pulls newd thru the area today. The
bulk of these SHRA will be diurnally driven and shud dissipate
this evening.
As for temps today, with extensive cloud cover in place, and with
the trof in place today, do not expect much clearing today except
for the srn third or so of the CWA. Where breaks to occur this
morning, believe CU will develop, filling them in. This complicates
the temps forecast for today as a strong May sun can help temps jump
even with a short period of insolation. Still, believe clouds will
be the rule for today and have trended temps aob the cooler guidance
for much of the CWA. The exception will be the srn portions where
more insolation is expected. This same area is also along and S of
the 850mb fnt, which shud help warm temps today.
Tilly
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Will see some lingering isolated/scattered showers this evening
in cyclonic flow on back side of system. The activity will
gradually taper off. Otherwise, clouds to slowly thin out from
north to south overnight and lows will be in the 40s, a bit below
normal for this time of year.
Because of the lingering cyclonic flow, could still see some
isolated showers in the far eastern portions of forecast area on
Tuesday. However, most locations to remain dry with partly sunny
skies and highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Then Tuesday night, a more vigorous trof/secondary cold front
associated with surface low anchored over the Great Lakes region to
slide south through area. So increased pops with scattered showers
for portions of west central/southwest IL Tuesday night through
Wednesday, as main energy to remain to our northeast and east.
For rest of work week, will see dry conditions with temperatures
slowly moderating. By Friday highs will be in the low to mid 70s and
in the upper 70s to low 80s on Saturday. Then next significant
weather system to approach region Saturday night and Sunday with
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms through the rest
of the weekend.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: MVFR cigs are expected at KUIN/KCOU
through the afternoon before cigs rise to to low-end VFR and
remain there for the rest of the pd. Winds remain either lgt/var
or northwesterly and light.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Brief pds of MVFR cigs are
possible for the next hour or two. Cigs should remain
predominantly low-end VFR for most of the TAF pd. Winds remain
either lgt/var or northwesterly and light.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
100 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Complex and messy upper air pattern remains across the region this
morning. Leading s/w continues to approach the region early this
morning and is responsible for light RA across swrn into central MO.
This area of precip shud continue to move newd thru the area this
morning. Mdls suggest it will dissipate as it moves into the CWA
around sunrise. While this is possible due to the better low level
moisture convergence pushes S of the area, believe the leading s/w
will be sufficient to maintain higher PoPs thru mid-morning.
For the remainder of the day, have kept PoPs in the slight chance
range for now as isod to widely sct SHRA are expected today.
However, coverage may be somewhat higher across nrn half to third
of the CWA as the upper trof pulls newd thru the area today. The
bulk of these SHRA will be diurnally driven and shud dissipate
this evening.
As for temps today, with extensive cloud cover in place, and with
the trof in place today, do not expect much clearing today except
for the srn third or so of the CWA. Where breaks to occur this
morning, believe CU will develop, filling them in. This complicates
the temps forecast for today as a strong May sun can help temps jump
even with a short period of insolation. Still, believe clouds will
be the rule for today and have trended temps aob the cooler guidance
for much of the CWA. The exception will be the srn portions where
more insolation is expected. This same area is also along and S of
the 850mb fnt, which shud help warm temps today.
Tilly
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Will see some lingering isolated/scattered showers this evening
in cyclonic flow on back side of system. The activity will
gradually taper off. Otherwise, clouds to slowly thin out from
north to south overnight and lows will be in the 40s, a bit below
normal for this time of year.
Because of the lingering cyclonic flow, could still see some
isolated showers in the far eastern portions of forecast area on
Tuesday. However, most locations to remain dry with partly sunny
skies and highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Then Tuesday night, a more vigorous trof/secondary cold front
associated with surface low anchored over the Great Lakes region to
slide south through area. So increased pops with scattered showers
for portions of west central/southwest IL Tuesday night through
Wednesday, as main energy to remain to our northeast and east.
For rest of work week, will see dry conditions with temperatures
slowly moderating. By Friday highs will be in the low to mid 70s and
in the upper 70s to low 80s on Saturday. Then next significant
weather system to approach region Saturday night and Sunday with
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms through the rest
of the weekend.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: MVFR cigs are expected at KUIN/KCOU
through the afternoon before cigs rise to to low-end VFR and
remain there for the rest of the pd. Winds remain either lgt/var
or northwesterly and light.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Brief pds of MVFR cigs are
possible for the next hour or two. Cigs should remain
predominantly low-end VFR for most of the TAF pd. Winds remain
either lgt/var or northwesterly and light.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1234 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Water vapor imagery early this morning showing a well-defined
wave diving south through the upper Miss Vly/northern Central Plains
in developing northerly flow aloft. Out ahead of this
feature...regional radars showing a concentrated area of shwr
activity just to our south along the I-44 corridor...with a secondary
area of lighter activity noted across east-central Kansas. This
secondary region may lead to a few light sprinkles/shwrs across the
KC Metro and surrounding areas this morning...and grids have been
adjusted accordingly. Otherwise...fcst models continue to hint at
developing instability shwrs across all areas later today as main
upper wave passes. This activity will most likely develop after
15z...and the very spotty appearance in available short-term model
guidance precludes going anything higher than a slgt chc mention for
now. With regards to high temps...periodic breaks in the cloud cover
should allow temps to warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s this
afternoon...with the warmest values expected across the western
zones.
Secondary wave to pass across the region overnight however with loss
of weak daytime instability and an influx of drier air...feature
should pass with little impact. Tomorrow will mark the start of a
pleasant and mostly dry period which will persist through the
remainder of the work week. Following the passage of a weak but dry
cold front Tuesday night/early Wednesday...fcst models largely in
agreement that a strong omega block will develop over the Nation`s
midsection towards the latter half of the work week. As a
result...building heights and developing warm air advection by Friday
should allow a nice warming trend to get underway heading into the
weekend. In fact temps by Saturday could be flirting with the 80
degree mark as the ridge axis passes directly overhead. While
Saturday looks dry...next round of shwrs/storms looks to return on
Sunday as upper pattern begins shifting to the southwest ahead of a
strong Great Basin upper low. Gulf looks to open right up heading
into the late weekend with precip chances easily continuing into
early next week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
MVFR ceilings are prevailing at the western Missouri terminals early
this afternoon, but clearing is noted on satellite shifting south and
will spread across the sites by the late afternoon hours with VFR
conditions to prevail afterwards. Expect the north wind to ease up
this evening and back to the west by Tuesday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...32
Aviation...Cutter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1234 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Water vapor imagery early this morning showing a well-defined
wave diving south through the upper Miss Vly/northern Central Plains
in developing northerly flow aloft. Out ahead of this
feature...regional radars showing a concentrated area of shwr
activity just to our south along the I-44 corridor...with a secondary
area of lighter activity noted across east-central Kansas. This
secondary region may lead to a few light sprinkles/shwrs across the
KC Metro and surrounding areas this morning...and grids have been
adjusted accordingly. Otherwise...fcst models continue to hint at
developing instability shwrs across all areas later today as main
upper wave passes. This activity will most likely develop after
15z...and the very spotty appearance in available short-term model
guidance precludes going anything higher than a slgt chc mention for
now. With regards to high temps...periodic breaks in the cloud cover
should allow temps to warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s this
afternoon...with the warmest values expected across the western
zones.
Secondary wave to pass across the region overnight however with loss
of weak daytime instability and an influx of drier air...feature
should pass with little impact. Tomorrow will mark the start of a
pleasant and mostly dry period which will persist through the
remainder of the work week. Following the passage of a weak but dry
cold front Tuesday night/early Wednesday...fcst models largely in
agreement that a strong omega block will develop over the Nation`s
midsection towards the latter half of the work week. As a
result...building heights and developing warm air advection by Friday
should allow a nice warming trend to get underway heading into the
weekend. In fact temps by Saturday could be flirting with the 80
degree mark as the ridge axis passes directly overhead. While
Saturday looks dry...next round of shwrs/storms looks to return on
Sunday as upper pattern begins shifting to the southwest ahead of a
strong Great Basin upper low. Gulf looks to open right up heading
into the late weekend with precip chances easily continuing into
early next week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
MVFR ceilings are prevailing at the western Missouri terminals early
this afternoon, but clearing is noted on satellite shifting south and
will spread across the sites by the late afternoon hours with VFR
conditions to prevail afterwards. Expect the north wind to ease up
this evening and back to the west by Tuesday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...32
Aviation...Cutter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1234 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Water vapor imagery early this morning showing a well-defined
wave diving south through the upper Miss Vly/northern Central Plains
in developing northerly flow aloft. Out ahead of this
feature...regional radars showing a concentrated area of shwr
activity just to our south along the I-44 corridor...with a secondary
area of lighter activity noted across east-central Kansas. This
secondary region may lead to a few light sprinkles/shwrs across the
KC Metro and surrounding areas this morning...and grids have been
adjusted accordingly. Otherwise...fcst models continue to hint at
developing instability shwrs across all areas later today as main
upper wave passes. This activity will most likely develop after
15z...and the very spotty appearance in available short-term model
guidance precludes going anything higher than a slgt chc mention for
now. With regards to high temps...periodic breaks in the cloud cover
should allow temps to warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s this
afternoon...with the warmest values expected across the western
zones.
Secondary wave to pass across the region overnight however with loss
of weak daytime instability and an influx of drier air...feature
should pass with little impact. Tomorrow will mark the start of a
pleasant and mostly dry period which will persist through the
remainder of the work week. Following the passage of a weak but dry
cold front Tuesday night/early Wednesday...fcst models largely in
agreement that a strong omega block will develop over the Nation`s
midsection towards the latter half of the work week. As a
result...building heights and developing warm air advection by Friday
should allow a nice warming trend to get underway heading into the
weekend. In fact temps by Saturday could be flirting with the 80
degree mark as the ridge axis passes directly overhead. While
Saturday looks dry...next round of shwrs/storms looks to return on
Sunday as upper pattern begins shifting to the southwest ahead of a
strong Great Basin upper low. Gulf looks to open right up heading
into the late weekend with precip chances easily continuing into
early next week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
MVFR ceilings are prevailing at the western Missouri terminals early
this afternoon, but clearing is noted on satellite shifting south and
will spread across the sites by the late afternoon hours with VFR
conditions to prevail afterwards. Expect the north wind to ease up
this evening and back to the west by Tuesday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...32
Aviation...Cutter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1234 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Water vapor imagery early this morning showing a well-defined
wave diving south through the upper Miss Vly/northern Central Plains
in developing northerly flow aloft. Out ahead of this
feature...regional radars showing a concentrated area of shwr
activity just to our south along the I-44 corridor...with a secondary
area of lighter activity noted across east-central Kansas. This
secondary region may lead to a few light sprinkles/shwrs across the
KC Metro and surrounding areas this morning...and grids have been
adjusted accordingly. Otherwise...fcst models continue to hint at
developing instability shwrs across all areas later today as main
upper wave passes. This activity will most likely develop after
15z...and the very spotty appearance in available short-term model
guidance precludes going anything higher than a slgt chc mention for
now. With regards to high temps...periodic breaks in the cloud cover
should allow temps to warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s this
afternoon...with the warmest values expected across the western
zones.
Secondary wave to pass across the region overnight however with loss
of weak daytime instability and an influx of drier air...feature
should pass with little impact. Tomorrow will mark the start of a
pleasant and mostly dry period which will persist through the
remainder of the work week. Following the passage of a weak but dry
cold front Tuesday night/early Wednesday...fcst models largely in
agreement that a strong omega block will develop over the Nation`s
midsection towards the latter half of the work week. As a
result...building heights and developing warm air advection by Friday
should allow a nice warming trend to get underway heading into the
weekend. In fact temps by Saturday could be flirting with the 80
degree mark as the ridge axis passes directly overhead. While
Saturday looks dry...next round of shwrs/storms looks to return on
Sunday as upper pattern begins shifting to the southwest ahead of a
strong Great Basin upper low. Gulf looks to open right up heading
into the late weekend with precip chances easily continuing into
early next week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
MVFR ceilings are prevailing at the western Missouri terminals early
this afternoon, but clearing is noted on satellite shifting south and
will spread across the sites by the late afternoon hours with VFR
conditions to prevail afterwards. Expect the north wind to ease up
this evening and back to the west by Tuesday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...32
Aviation...Cutter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1156 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
...18z Aviation Forecast Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
A blocking pattern is in place with a high amplitude ridge axis
over western NOAM with downstream troughing over the Midwest into
the central Plains. Clouds and some light radar return are
occurring in a band of forcing roughly along the I-44 corridor. We
will continue to see sprinkles/r-/r-- today with abundant clouds
and cool temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Another disturbance/shortwave will pivot through the area Tue.
Some guidance has been spitting out precip here and there Tue
afternoon and with relatively cool air aloft this makes sense.
Certainly nothing noteworthy other than sprinkles and clouds at
times.
One more shortwave now over the high latitudes of Canada will
moves sse into MN by midday Tue and then into the OH Vly Wed. This
will veer winds to the nw-nnw Wednesday but little else. A
warming trend will occur late in the week as the western upper
level ridge moves into the Plains. 850mb temperatures support
highs in the low 80s deg F for Sat.
General global model agreement exists in shifting a closed upper
low into the central High Plains by late Sunday. A downstream
weakening upper level ridge axis will still be in place near or
just east of our cwfa. Low amplitude lead shortwaves ahead of the
parent low are expected to move n-nne into/through the region with
increased chances for showers/tstms, especially over the western
cwfa late Saturday night and Sunday. This could begin an extended
unsettled humid period of ocnl showers/tstms into the work week
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
MVFR ceilings will hold on across the area this afternoon for all
TAF sites with a gradual improvement to VFR late afternoon into
this evening. Will mention the possibility of some MVFR light fog
possible tonight with a TEMPO group between 09-12z tonight with 4
to 5 SM light fog possible. VFR conditions will continue into
tomorrow morning. Winds will be light and northwesterly about 10
knots or less.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Griffin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1156 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
...18z Aviation Forecast Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
A blocking pattern is in place with a high amplitude ridge axis
over western NOAM with downstream troughing over the Midwest into
the central Plains. Clouds and some light radar return are
occurring in a band of forcing roughly along the I-44 corridor. We
will continue to see sprinkles/r-/r-- today with abundant clouds
and cool temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Another disturbance/shortwave will pivot through the area Tue.
Some guidance has been spitting out precip here and there Tue
afternoon and with relatively cool air aloft this makes sense.
Certainly nothing noteworthy other than sprinkles and clouds at
times.
One more shortwave now over the high latitudes of Canada will
moves sse into MN by midday Tue and then into the OH Vly Wed. This
will veer winds to the nw-nnw Wednesday but little else. A
warming trend will occur late in the week as the western upper
level ridge moves into the Plains. 850mb temperatures support
highs in the low 80s deg F for Sat.
General global model agreement exists in shifting a closed upper
low into the central High Plains by late Sunday. A downstream
weakening upper level ridge axis will still be in place near or
just east of our cwfa. Low amplitude lead shortwaves ahead of the
parent low are expected to move n-nne into/through the region with
increased chances for showers/tstms, especially over the western
cwfa late Saturday night and Sunday. This could begin an extended
unsettled humid period of ocnl showers/tstms into the work week
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
MVFR ceilings will hold on across the area this afternoon for all
TAF sites with a gradual improvement to VFR late afternoon into
this evening. Will mention the possibility of some MVFR light fog
possible tonight with a TEMPO group between 09-12z tonight with 4
to 5 SM light fog possible. VFR conditions will continue into
tomorrow morning. Winds will be light and northwesterly about 10
knots or less.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Griffin
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
651 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Complex and messy upper air pattern remains across the region this
morning. Leading s/w continues to approach the region early this
morning and is responsible for light RA across swrn into central MO.
This area of precip shud continue to move newd thru the area this
morning. Mdls suggest it will dissipate as it moves into the CWA
around sunrise. While this is possible due to the better low level
moisture convergence pushes S of the area, believe the leading s/w
will be sufficient to maintain higher PoPs thru mid-morning.
For the remainder of the day, have kept PoPs in the slight chance
range for now as isod to widely sct SHRA are expected today.
However, coverage may be somewhat higher across nrn half to third
of the CWA as the upper trof pulls newd thru the area today. The
bulk of these SHRA will be diurnally driven and shud dissipate
this evening.
As for temps today, with extensive cloud cover in place, and with
the trof in place today, do not expect much clearing today except
for the srn third or so of the CWA. Where breaks to occur this
morning, believe CU will develop, filling them in. This complicates
the temps forecast for today as a strong May sun can help temps jump
even with a short period of insolation. Still, believe clouds will
be the rule for today and have trended temps aob the cooler guidance
for much of the CWA. The exception will be the srn portions where
more insolation is expected. This same area is also along and S of
the 850mb fnt, which shud help warm temps today.
Tilly
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Will see some lingering isolated/scattered showers this evening
in cyclonic flow on back side of system. The activity will
gradually taper off. Otherwise, clouds to slowly thin out from
north to south overnight and lows will be in the 40s, a bit below
normal for this time of year.
Because of the lingering cyclonic flow, could still see some
isolated showers in the far eastern portions of forecast area on
Tuesday. However, most locations to remain dry with partly sunny
skies and highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Then Tuesday night, a more vigorous trof/secondary cold front
associated with surface low anchored over the Great Lakes region to
slide south through area. So increased pops with scattered showers
for portions of west central/southwest IL Tuesday night through
Wednesday, as main energy to remain to our northeast and east.
For rest of work week, will see dry conditions with temperatures
slowly moderating. By Friday highs will be in the low to mid 70s and
in the upper 70s to low 80s on Saturday. Then next significant
weather system to approach region Saturday night and Sunday with
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms through the rest
of the weekend.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Expect bkn to ovc clouds thru much of today, with clouds breaking
up this evening. A couple of areas of light RA are moving thru the
region this morning. Expect SHRA to develop by Noon across the
region and dissipate this evening. Given the isod nature of these
SHRA, have only mentioned VCSH during the times for best chances
of impacting terminals for now. Will need to continue to monitor
as some of the latest guidance suggests coverage may be higher for
KUIN/KCOU this afternoon. Cigs will be difficult today with KUIN
gradually improving thru the day. KCOU shud remain in MVFR range
thru the morning and perhaps into the afternoon before improving.
Otherwise, nwly winds will prevail today becoming light tonight.
Specifics for KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: Cigs shud lower into MVFR range over
the next couple of hours. Expect isod SHRA to develop later this
morning into the afternoon hours. Cigs shud move E of terminals
with cloud clearing out this evening.
Tilly
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 60 48 67 52 / 30 20 10 10
Quincy 55 44 66 49 / 20 10 10 20
Columbia 57 44 67 49 / 20 5 10 10
Jefferson City 58 44 68 49 / 20 5 10 5
Salem 62 48 65 49 / 20 20 20 20
Farmington 62 45 67 47 / 20 10 10 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
645 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
A blocking pattern is in place with a high amplitude ridge axis
over western NOAM with downstream troughing over the Midwest into
the central Plains. Clouds and some light radar return are
occurring in a band of forcing roughly along the I-44 corridor. We
will continue to see sprinkles/r-/r-- today with abundant clouds
and cool temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Another disturbance/shortwave will pivot through the area Tue.
Some guidance has been spitting out precip here and there Tue
afternoon and with relatively cool air aloft this makes sense.
Certainly nothing noteworthy other than sprinkles and clouds at
times.
One more shortwave now over the high latitudes of Canada will
moves sse into MN by midday Tue and then into the OH Vly Wed. This
will veer winds to the nw-nnw Wednesday but little else. A
warming trend will occur late in the week as the western upper
level ridge moves into the Plains. 850mb temperatures support
highs in the low 80s deg F for Sat.
General global model agreement exists in shifting a closed upper
low into the central High Plains by late Sunday. A downstream
weakening upper level ridge axis will still be in place near or
just east of our cwfa. Low amplitude lead shortwaves ahead of the
parent low are expected to move n-nne into/through the region with
increased chances for showers/tstms, especially over the western
cwfa late Saturday night and Sunday. This could begin an extended
unsettled humid period of ocnl showers/tstms into the work week
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Cloud cover will be the rule for much of the forecast for the
regions terminals through Tuesday early morning. Ceilings will be
MVFR through this morning with VFR ceilings expected for the
remainder of the afternoon and evening. A few showers will also be
possible for the Springfield and Branson aerodromes early this
morning. Overall flight conditions will begin to improve
overnight as cloud cover scatters out early Tuesday morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
318 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Complex and messy upper air pattern remains across the region this
morning. Leading s/w continues to approach the region early this
morning and is responsible for light RA across swrn into central MO.
This area of precip shud continue to move newd thru the area this
morning. Mdls suggest it will dissipate as it moves into the CWA
around sunrise. While this is possible due to the better low level
moisture convergence pushes S of the area, believe the leading s/w
will be sufficient to maintain higher PoPs thru mid-morning.
For the remainder of the day, have kept PoPs in the slight chance
range for now as isod to widely sct SHRA are expected today.
However, coverage may be somewhat higher across nrn half to third
of the CWA as the upper trof pulls newd thru the area today. The
bulk of these SHRA will be diurnally driven and shud dissipate
this evening.
As for temps today, with extensive cloud cover in place, and with
the trof in place today, do not expect much clearing today except
for the srn third or so of the CWA. Where breaks to occur this
morning, believe CU will develop, filling them in. This complicates
the temps forecast for today as a strong May sun can help temps jump
even with a short period of insolation. Still, believe clouds will
be the rule for today and have trended temps aob the cooler guidance
for much of the CWA. The exception will be the srn portions where
more insolation is expected. This same area is also along and S of
the 850mb fnt, which shud help warm temps today.
Tilly
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Will see some lingering isolated/scattered showers this evening
in cyclonic flow on back side of system. The activity will
gradually taper off. Otherwise, clouds to slowly thin out from
north to south overnight and lows will be in the 40s, a bit below
normal for this time of year.
Because of the lingering cyclonic flow, could still see some
isolated showers in the far eastern portions of forecast area on
Tuesday. However, most locations to remain dry with partly sunny
skies and highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Then Tuesday night, a more vigorous trof/secondary cold front
associated with surface low anchored over the Great Lakes region to
slide south through area. So increased pops with scattered showers
for portions of west central/southwest IL Tuesday night through
Wednesday, as main energy to remain to our northeast and east.
For rest of work week, will see dry conditions with temperatures
slowly moderating. By Friday highs will be in the low to mid 70s and
in the upper 70s to low 80s on Saturday. Then next significant
weather system to approach region Saturday night and Sunday with
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms through the rest
of the weekend.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Surface low over southern IN will continue moving eastward
late tonight. Surface ridging extended from the Plains into
northwestern MO. MVFR cigs over northern portions of MO and IL
which were over UIN and have just moved into COU should continue
to slowly advect south-southeastward into the St Louis metro area
around 06-07Z Monday. These cigs will drop into the IFR catagory
by early Monday morning. There will also be light fog late
tonight and early Monday morning. The cloud ceiling will gradually
rise into the MVFR catagory late Monday morning, and possibly into
the VFR catagory by late Monday afternoon or early Monday evening.
A narrow band of light showers moving into southwest MO may move
into COU and the St Louis metro area early Monday morning. An
upper level disturbance will also bring widely scattered showers
to the area on Monday, especially during the afternoon. A
northwesterly surface wind will continue through the period.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs will move southeastward into STL
around 06Z Monday. The ceiling will drop into the IFR catagory
by early morning with light fog developing. The fog will
dissipate by late morning along with the cigs rising into the MVFR
catagory. The ceiling may rise into the VFR catagory by late
Monday afternoon or early Monday evening. There may be a few
showers on Monday. Nwly surface wind will continue through the
period, becoming light Monday evening.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 60 48 67 52 / 30 20 10 10
Quincy 55 44 66 49 / 20 10 10 20
Columbia 57 44 67 49 / 20 5 10 10
Jefferson City 58 44 68 49 / 20 5 10 5
Salem 62 48 65 49 / 20 20 20 20
Farmington 62 45 67 47 / 20 10 10 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
300 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
A blocking pattern is in place with a high amplitude ridge axis
over western NOAM with downstream troughing over the Midwest into
the central Plains. Clouds and some light radar return are
occurring in a band of forcing roughly along the I-44 corridor. We
will continue to see sprinkles/r-/r-- today with abundant clouds
and cool temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Another disturbance/shortwave will pivot through the area Tue.
Some guidance has been spitting out precip here and there Tue
afternoon and with relatively cool air aloft this makes sense.
Certainly nothing noteworthy other than sprinkles and clouds at
times.
One more shortwave now over the high latitudes of Canada will
moves sse into MN by midday Tue and then into the OH Vly Wed. This
will veer winds to the nw-nnw Wednesday but little else. A
warming trend will occur late in the week as the western upper
level ridge moves into the Plains. 850mb temperatures support
highs in the low 80s deg F for Sat.
General global model agreement exists in shifting a closed upper
low into the central High Plains by late Sunday. A downstream
weakening upper level ridge axis will still be in place near or
just east of our cwfa. Low amplitude lead shortwaves ahead of the
parent low are expected to move n-nne into/through the region with
increased chances for showers/tstms, especially over the western
cwfa late Saturday night and Sunday. This could begin an extended
unsettled humid period of ocnl showers/tstms into the work week
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
A weak upper level storm system will produce a few light rain
showers across southern Missouri overnight. Ceilings will also
lower into the MVFR category by late tonight. There is still a
signal for a brief period of IFR ceilings just after
sunrise...especially around Springfield.
Ceilings will then improve from mid-morning onward on Monday.
However, MVFR will remain likely through at least early afternoon.
Winds will remain out of the northwest generally below 10 knots.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
254 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Water vapor imagery early this morning showing a well-defined
wave diving south through the upper Miss Vly/northern Central Plains
in developing northerly flow aloft. Out ahead of this
feature...regional radars showing a concentrated area of shwr
activity just to our south along the I-44 corridor...with a secondary
area of lighter activity noted across east-central Kansas. This
secondary region may lead to a few light sprinkles/shwrs across the
KC Metro and surrounding areas this morning...and grids have been
adjusted accordingly. Otherwise...fcst models continue to hint at
developing instability shwrs across all areas later today as main
upper wave passes. This activity will most likely develop after
15z...and the very spotty appearance in available short-term model
guidance precludes going anything higher than a slgt chc mention for
now. With regards to high temps...periodic breaks in the cloud cover
should allow temps to warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s this
afternoon...with the warmest values expected across the western
zones.
Secondary wave to pass across the region overnight however with loss
of weak daytime instability and an influx of drier air...feature
should pass with little impact. Tomorrow will mark the start of a
pleasant and mostly dry period which will persist through the
remainder of the work week. Following the passage of a weak but dry
cold front Tuesday night/early Wednesday...fcst models largely in
agreement that a strong omega block will develop over the Nation`s
midsection towards the latter half of the work week. As a
result...building heights and developing warm air advection by Friday
should allow a nice warming trend to get underway heading into the
weekend. In fact temps by Saturday could be flirting with the 80
degree mark as the ridge axis passes directly overhead. While
Saturday looks dry...next round of shwrs/storms looks to return on
Sunday as upper pattern begins shifting to the southwest ahead of a
strong Great Basin upper low. Gulf looks to open right up heading
into the late weekend with precip chances easily continuing into
early next week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Drier air slowly working into the region early this morning which is
resulting in a categorical increase back to VFR at most forecast
locations. For now...have decided to play the optimistic card and
currently have a mostly VFR fcst through roughly 14z at all
locations. After this time...daytime heating and the arrival of the
next weather system will result in a brief period if MVFR cigs before
improving by the 18z time frame. As this feature arrives...a brief
shwr or two will be possible at all locations with activity likely
coming to an end by 00z. Winds to remain from the northwest between
5-10 kts.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...32
Aviation...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1233 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 219 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
A little wet and cloudy along the Iowa border with comparatively
nice conditions farther south across east central Kansas into
central Missouri has been the prevailing pattern for today. However,
the upper level shortwave trough is sliding northeast out of Iowa
this afternoon has induced enough of a return flow on the backside
that low clouds and a few showers are now moving through northern
Missouri. Areas south of the Missouri River where able to bound in
the 60s, but cloud cover and northerly winds farther north have kept
conditions cooler and damper.
Rest of the afternoon through Monday...cool, cloud, and likely
damp,conditions will prevail. While the shortwave in Iowa is moving
away this afternoon, a follow on shortwave trough is expected to
quickly exit the Desert Southwest late tonight, ejecting along a
slightly more southern track than the leading shortwave moving
through Iowa. Ultimately, this should keep the lower clouds and
potential for scattered showers persisting across the region
overnight and through the day Monday as a result. Have tossed in
chance POPs for late Monday morning and the afternoon hours as the
shortwave trough ejects into and through the Southern and Central
Plains. This could make for a soupy day, with low clouds, drizzle
and scattered showers dominating. However, with the exiting of the
secondary shortwave that night, warmer temperatures and less cloudy
skies will prevail in the days afterwards.
Tuesday on into the next weekend...will be dominated by dry weather
and nice temperatures. With the secondary shortwave exiting the
region Monday night into Tuesday the region will quickly get
dominated by a large amplitude ridge sandwiched between two large
cutoff circulations; one over the east coast with the other over the
Great Basin. Temperatures under the ridge will warm into the 70s
with lows in the 50s. Otherwise, given the pattern set up later in
the work week, expect that sometime late in the weekend --but more
likely early next work week-- the Great Basin trough will start
ejecting through the Plains and likely result in our next widespread
chance for storms in the region.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Drier air slowly working into the region early this morning which is
resulting in a categorical increase back to VFR at most forecast
locations. For now...have decided to play the optimistic card and
currently have a mostly VFR fcst through roughly 14z at all
locations. After this time...daytime heating and the arrival of the
next weather system will result in a brief period if MVFR cigs before
improving by the 18z time frame. As this feature arrives...a brief
shwr or two will be possible at all locations with activity likely
coming to an end by 00z. Winds to remain from the northwest between
5-10 kts.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
We have increased PoPs into the 30-40% range for the late evening
and overnight period generally along and just north of the I-44
corridor. A mid-level frontogenetic zone (centered around 750 mb)
will be the primary focus for the shower activity. Amounts will be
very light...generally less than 0.05".
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
An upper level ridge will build east across the plains during the
middle of the week then over the region late in the week into
early next weekend. This will allow a warming trend to occur as
highs return to the lower 70s on Wednesday, with temperatures
warming into the upper 70s to the lower 80s by Saturday.
An upper level low will then track east across the southwestern
U.S then into the plains late this weekend into early next week.
As this system approaches from the west, thunderstorm chances
will return to the area late next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
A weak upper level storm system will produce a few light rain
showers across southern Missouri overnight. Ceilings will also
lower into the MVFR category by late tonight. There is still a
signal for a brief period of IFR ceilings just after
sunrise...especially around Springfield.
Ceilings will then improve from mid-morning onward on Monday.
However, MVFR will remain likely through at least early afternoon.
Winds will remain out of the northwest generally below 10 knots.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
We have increased PoPs into the 30-40% range for the late evening
and overnight period generally along and just north of the I-44
corridor. A mid-level frontogenetic zone (centered around 750 mb)
will be the primary focus for the shower activity. Amounts will be
very light...generally less than 0.05".
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
An upper level ridge will build east across the plains during the
middle of the week then over the region late in the week into
early next weekend. This will allow a warming trend to occur as
highs return to the lower 70s on Wednesday, with temperatures
warming into the upper 70s to the lower 80s by Saturday.
An upper level low will then track east across the southwestern
U.S then into the plains late this weekend into early next week.
As this system approaches from the west, thunderstorm chances
will return to the area late next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
A weak upper level storm system will produce a few light rain
showers across southern Missouri overnight. Ceilings will also
lower into the MVFR category by late tonight. There is still a
signal for a brief period of IFR ceilings just after
sunrise...especially around Springfield.
Ceilings will then improve from mid-morning onward on Monday.
However, MVFR will remain likely through at least early afternoon.
Winds will remain out of the northwest generally below 10 knots.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1124 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Clouds will continue to move southeast and will overspread the area
by mid evening as upper trough back over eastern Nebraska drops
southeast into Missouri and Illinois. Isolated afternoon showers
and thunderstorms should diminish by early this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Some isolated showers may begin to develop
toward morning underneath the upper trough over central and
northeast Missouri. Lows tonight will fall into the middle 40s to
around 50s.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
(Monday through Wednesday)
GFS/ECMWF are in relatively good agreement that upper trough will
move across the area tomorrow with relatively deep layer moisture.
Will carry chance PoPs for much of the area for this reason. Drier
air will begin to move into the area by Monday night, so will go
with mainly dry conditions. A second trough moves across the area
on Tuesday which begins the switchover in the upper pattern to
northwesterly flow. GFS/ECMWF are still showing a third upper
trough moving across the Great Lakes and the Midwest on Wednesday
that will bring an attendant cold front across Missouri and Illinois.
Models indicate that best low level moisture and forcing will
still limit rain chances to the eastern part of the CWA.
Monday still looks quite cool with clouds, showers, and cold air
advection. Tuesday will be slightly warmer with less clouds and
winds turning out of the west. Wednesday will see near steady
temperatures during the afternoon behind the front.
(Thursday through Sunday)
CONUS will be in highly amplified upper flow late week into next
weekend because of an omega block that will set up over North
America. It still looks like we will be dry through at least
Saturday as we will lie under northwesterly flow aloft and a large
surface high will be moving across Missouri and Illinois. By next
weekend, the GFS and ECMWF show the upper ridge moving over us and
the low level flow becoming southwesterly across the Midwest. This
may allow for some return of Gulf moisture into our area by late in
the weekend. Have added a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday as both
the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a frontal boundary moving back into
the area. This will also cause temperatures to climb from below
normal on Thursday with 850mb temperatures around 5C to above normal
temperatures over the weekend with southwesterly surface flow and
850mb temperatures around 15C.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Surface low over southern IN will continue moving eastward
late tonight. Surface ridging extended from the Plains into
northwestern MO. MVFR cigs over northern portions of MO and IL
which were over UIN and have just moved into COU should continue
to slowly advect south-southeastward into the St Louis metro area
around 06-07Z Monday. These cigs will drop into the IFR catagory
by early Monday morning. There will also be light fog late
tonight and early Monday morning. The cloud ceiling will gradually
rise into the MVFR catagory late Monday morning, and possibly into
the VFR catagory by late Monday afternoon or early Monday evening.
A narrow band of light showers moving into southwest MO may move
into COU and the St Louis metro area early Monday morning. An
upper level disturbance will also bring widely scattered showers
to the area on Monday, especially during the afternoon. A
northwesterly surface wind will continue through the period.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs will move southeastward into STL
around 06Z Monday. The ceiling will drop into the IFR catagory
by early morning with light fog developing. The fog will
dissipate by late morning along with the cigs rising into the MVFR
catagory. The ceiling may rise into the VFR catagory by late
Monday afternoon or early Monday evening. There may be a few
showers on Monday. Nwly surface wind will continue through the
period, becoming light Monday evening.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
646 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 219 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
A little wet and cloudy along the Iowa border with comparatively
nice conditions farther south across east central Kansas into
central Missouri has been the prevailing pattern for today. However,
the upper level shortwave trough is sliding northeast out of Iowa
this afternoon has induced enough of a return flow on the backside
that low clouds and a few showers are now moving through northern
Missouri. Areas south of the Missouri River where able to bound in
the 60s, but cloud cover and northerly winds farther north have kept
conditions cooler and damper.
Rest of the afternoon through Monday...cool, cloud, and likely
damp,conditions will prevail. While the shortwave in Iowa is moving
away this afternoon, a follow on shortwave trough is expected to
quickly exit the Desert Southwest late tonight, ejecting along a
slightly more southern track than the leading shortwave moving
through Iowa. Ultimately, this should keep the lower clouds and
potential for scattered showers persisting across the region
overnight and through the day Monday as a result. Have tossed in
chance POPs for late Monday morning and the afternoon hours as the
shortwave trough ejects into and through the Southern and Central
Plains. This could make for a soupy day, with low clouds, drizzle
and scattered showers dominating. However, with the exiting of the
secondary shortwave that night, warmer temperatures and less cloudy
skies will prevail in the days afterwards.
Tuesday on into the next weekend...will be dominated by dry weather
and nice temperatures. With the secondary shortwave exiting the
region Monday night into Tuesday the region will quickly get
dominated by a large amplitude ridge sandwiched between two large
cutoff circulations; one over the east coast with the other over the
Great Basin. Temperatures under the ridge will warm into the 70s
with lows in the 50s. Otherwise, given the pattern set up later in
the work week, expect that sometime late in the weekend --but more
likely early next work week-- the Great Basin trough will start
ejecting through the Plains and likely result in our next widespread
chance for storms in the region.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
Should see MVFR stratus through most of the forecast period, with
some degradation toward IFR in a few hours. Expect a gradual
improvement through the morning hours on Monday, with VFR status
prevailing by the afternoon hours.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Leighton
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
639 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
...Update to Public and Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
We have increased PoPs into the 30-40% range for the late evening
and overnight period generally along and just north of the I-44
corridor. A mid-level frontogenetic zone (centered around 750 mb)
will be the primary focus for the shower activity. Amounts will be
very light...generally less than 0.05".
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
An upper level ridge will build east across the plains during the
middle of the week then over the region late in the week into
early next weekend. This will allow a warming trend to occur as
highs return to the lower 70s on Wednesday, with temperatures
warming into the upper 70s to the lower 80s by Saturday.
An upper level low will then track east across the southwestern
U.S then into the plains late this weekend into early next week.
As this system approaches from the west, thunderstorm chances
will return to the area late next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
A weak upper level storm system will bring lowering ceilings and a
few showers to the region overnight. Confidence is high that MVFR
ceilings will develop overnight with ceilings approaching IFR by
sunrise.
Confidence was then high enough to include prevailing IFR around
Springfield for a few hours. Confidence was slightly lower at
Joplin, so we include a mention of IFR in a TEMPO group. At this
point, confidence was too low at Branson to insert an IFR mention.
Ceilings will then slowly improve later Monday morning although
MVFR may hang on for much of the day.
Winds through Monday will remain out of the northwest generally
below 9 knots.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
559 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Clouds will continue to move southeast and will overspread the area
by mid evening as upper trough back over eastern Nebraska drops
southeast into Missouri and Illinois. Isolated afternoon showers
and thunderstorms should diminish by early this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Some isolated showers may begin to develop
toward morning underneath the upper trough over central and
northeast Missouri. Lows tonight will fall into the middle 40s to
around 50s.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
(Monday through Wednesday)
GFS/ECMWF are in relatively good agreement that upper trough will
move across the area tomorrow with relatively deep layer moisture.
Will carry chance PoPs for much of the area for this reason. Drier
air will begin to move into the area by Monday night, so will go
with mainly dry conditions. A second trough moves across the area
on Tuesday which begins the switchover in the upper pattern to
northwesterly flow. GFS/ECMWF are still showing a third upper
trough moving across the Great Lakes and the Midwest on Wednesday
that will bring an attendant cold front across Missouri and Illinois.
Models indicate that best low level moisture and forcing will
still limit rain chances to the eastern part of the CWA.
Monday still looks quite cool with clouds, showers, and cold air
advection. Tuesday will be slightly warmer with less clouds and
winds turning out of the west. Wednesday will see near steady
temperatures during the afternoon behind the front.
(Thursday through Sunday)
CONUS will be in highly amplified upper flow late week into next
weekend because of an omega block that will set up over North
America. It still looks like we will be dry through at least
Saturday as we will lie under northwesterly flow aloft and a large
surface high will be moving across Missouri and Illinois. By next
weekend, the GFS and ECMWF show the upper ridge moving over us and
the low level flow becoming southwesterly across the Midwest. This
may allow for some return of Gulf moisture into our area by late in
the weekend. Have added a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday as both
the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a frontal boundary moving back into
the area. This will also cause temperatures to climb from below
normal on Thursday with 850mb temperatures around 5C to above normal
temperatures over the weekend with southwesterly surface flow and
850mb temperatures around 15C.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 455 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Surface low over southeast IL will move eastward tonight. Any
showers/storms should be east of the taf sites this evening. MVFR
cigs in UIN should drop back down into the IFR catagory later this
evening. The low level cloud cover over northern MO will advect
south-southeastward into COU and the St Louis metro area later
this evening and overnight, leading to MVFR cigs initially, then
dropping into the IFR catagory late tonight/early Monday morning.
There will also be light fog late tonight and early Monday
morning. The cloud ceiling will gradually rise into the MVFR
catagory late Monday morning, and possibly into the VFR catagory
by late Monday afternoon. An upper level disturbance will bring
widely scattered showers to the area on Monday. W-nwly surface
wind will become more n-nwly on Monday.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs will move into STL late this
evening, then drop into the IFR catagory late tonight along with
light fog. The fog will dissipate by late morning along with the
cigs rising into the MVFR catagory. The ceiling may rise into the
VFR catagory by late Monday afternoon or early Monday evening.
There may be a few showers on Monday. Nwly surface wind will
continue through the period, weakening early this evening.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
559 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Clouds will continue to move southeast and will overspread the area
by mid evening as upper trough back over eastern Nebraska drops
southeast into Missouri and Illinois. Isolated afternoon showers
and thunderstorms should diminish by early this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Some isolated showers may begin to develop
toward morning underneath the upper trough over central and
northeast Missouri. Lows tonight will fall into the middle 40s to
around 50s.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
(Monday through Wednesday)
GFS/ECMWF are in relatively good agreement that upper trough will
move across the area tomorrow with relatively deep layer moisture.
Will carry chance PoPs for much of the area for this reason. Drier
air will begin to move into the area by Monday night, so will go
with mainly dry conditions. A second trough moves across the area
on Tuesday which begins the switchover in the upper pattern to
northwesterly flow. GFS/ECMWF are still showing a third upper
trough moving across the Great Lakes and the Midwest on Wednesday
that will bring an attendant cold front across Missouri and Illinois.
Models indicate that best low level moisture and forcing will
still limit rain chances to the eastern part of the CWA.
Monday still looks quite cool with clouds, showers, and cold air
advection. Tuesday will be slightly warmer with less clouds and
winds turning out of the west. Wednesday will see near steady
temperatures during the afternoon behind the front.
(Thursday through Sunday)
CONUS will be in highly amplified upper flow late week into next
weekend because of an omega block that will set up over North
America. It still looks like we will be dry through at least
Saturday as we will lie under northwesterly flow aloft and a large
surface high will be moving across Missouri and Illinois. By next
weekend, the GFS and ECMWF show the upper ridge moving over us and
the low level flow becoming southwesterly across the Midwest. This
may allow for some return of Gulf moisture into our area by late in
the weekend. Have added a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday as both
the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a frontal boundary moving back into
the area. This will also cause temperatures to climb from below
normal on Thursday with 850mb temperatures around 5C to above normal
temperatures over the weekend with southwesterly surface flow and
850mb temperatures around 15C.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 455 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Surface low over southeast IL will move eastward tonight. Any
showers/storms should be east of the taf sites this evening. MVFR
cigs in UIN should drop back down into the IFR catagory later this
evening. The low level cloud cover over northern MO will advect
south-southeastward into COU and the St Louis metro area later
this evening and overnight, leading to MVFR cigs initially, then
dropping into the IFR catagory late tonight/early Monday morning.
There will also be light fog late tonight and early Monday
morning. The cloud ceiling will gradually rise into the MVFR
catagory late Monday morning, and possibly into the VFR catagory
by late Monday afternoon. An upper level disturbance will bring
widely scattered showers to the area on Monday. W-nwly surface
wind will become more n-nwly on Monday.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs will move into STL late this
evening, then drop into the IFR catagory late tonight along with
light fog. The fog will dissipate by late morning along with the
cigs rising into the MVFR catagory. The ceiling may rise into the
VFR catagory by late Monday afternoon or early Monday evening.
There may be a few showers on Monday. Nwly surface wind will
continue through the period, weakening early this evening.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
325 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Clouds will continue to move southeast and will overspread the area
by mid evening as upper trough back over eastern Nebraska drops
southeast into Missouri and Illinois. Isolated afternoon showers
and thunderstorms should diminish by early this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Some isolated showers may begin to develop
toward morning underneath the upper trough over central and
northeast Missouri. Lows tonight will fall into the middle 40s to
around 50s.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
(Monday through Wednesday)
GFS/ECMWF are in relatively good agreement that upper trough will
move across the area tomorrow with relatively deep layer moisture.
Will carry chance PoPs for much of the area for this reason. Drier
air will begin to move into the area by Monday night, so will go
with mainly dry conditions. A second trough moves across the area
on Tuesday which begins the switchover in the upper pattern to
northwesterly flow. GFS/ECMWF are still showing a third upper
trough moving across the Great Lakes and the Midwest on Wednesday
that will bring an attendant cold front across Missouri and Illinois.
Models indicate that best low level moisture and forcing will
still limit rain chances to the eastern part of the CWA.
Monday still looks quite cool with clouds, showers, and cold air
advection. Tuesday will be slightly warmer with less clouds and
winds turning out of the west. Wednesday will see near steady
temperatures during the afternoon behind the front.
(Thursday through Sunday)
CONUS will be in highly amplified upper flow late week into next
weekend because of an omega block that will set up over North
America. It still looks like we will be dry through at least
Saturday as we will lie under northwesterly flow aloft and a large
surface high will be moving across Missouri and Illinois. By next
weekend, the GFS and ECMWF show the upper ridge moving over us and
the low level flow becoming southwesterly across the Midwest. This
may allow for some return of Gulf moisture into our area by late in
the weekend. Have added a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday as both
the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a frontal boundary moving back into
the area. This will also cause temperatures to climb from below
normal on Thursday with 850mb temperatures around 5C to above normal
temperatures over the weekend with southwesterly surface flow and
850mb temperatures around 15C.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Specifics for KCOU: KCOU is far enough west that VFR conditions
should prevail for the first 0-6 hours of the valid TAF pd.
Thereafter, MVFR cigs are expected for most of the night. Ceilings
may fall to IFR late tonight, but confidence was too low to
include in the TAF attm.
Specifics for KUIN: IFR conditions are expected for at least the
next few hours. Minor improvement is possible during the late
afternoon, but cigs should fall back to IFR this evening.
Scattered rain showers are possible after 20z.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: IFR and MVFR cigs extended farther
south late this morning than the models had previously predicted,
and IFR/MVFR cigs are expected to remain in place through the
afternoon based on upstream satellite imagery and METARs. Cigs
are expected to fall to IFR again tonight, likely after 06z based
on RAP and local WRF soundings in BUFKIT. Light fog is also
possible overnight. Rain showers are possible after 12z, but the
St. Louis metro area should be on the northern fringe of the rain
shield.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
GIVEN THAT THE MAJORITY OF WEATHER "CONCERNS" (MAINLY JUST PESKY
LIGHT RAIN IN THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE FOG
IN THE NORTHWEST) WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS SHOULD BE
A PRETTY QUIET TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD DOMINATED BY DRY
WEATHER/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A CONTINUED CLIMB IN HIGH TEMPS...AND
FAIRLY LIGHT BREEZES. PER LONG TERM EARLY-MAY HIGH TEMP
AVERAGES...TODAY SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO "NORMAL" FOR THE DATE.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 08Z/3AM:
THE NIGHT IS GENERALLY PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED 12-24 HOURS
AGO...WITH MOST OF THE CWA REMAINING DRY WHILE AN AREA OF STEADY
LIGHT RAIN HAS THUS FAR REMAINED MAINLY TO OUR WEST...BUT STILL
BRUSHING INTO A FEW OF OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES NAMELY
DAWSON/GOSPER/FURNAS. HOWEVER...EVEN WELL EAST OF THIS MAIN LIGHT
RAIN BAND...A FEW ROGUE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SPRUNG UP AS FAR EAST
AS JEWELL/MITCHELL COUNTIES. SKY COVER AT THIS HOUR IS SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE OVER THE CWA...BUT GENERALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF IS
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNDER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WHILE THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS VARIABILITY IN SKY COVER IS RESULTING
IN TRICKY HOURLY TEMP TRENDS...AS SOME CLEARER AREAS HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED TO NEAR 40...WHILE CLOUDY AREAS ARE MAINLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 40S. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY INDICATE OUR CURRENT RAIN-MAKER
IN THE FORM A WEST-EAST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
DROPPING DUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE JUST TO OUR WEST...A VERY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...PROMINENT FEATURES ARE HARD TO COME BY...AS BREEZES
ACROSS THE CWA ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AT SPEEDS
MAINLY AT/BELOW 7 MPH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS OF A SUBTLE
SURFACE TROUGH STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST WISE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
EARLY THIS MORNING (ROUGHLY THROUGH SUNRISE):
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...MOST OF THE EXPECTED "WEATHER" DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TAKES PLACE DURING THESE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO. ANY
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS SOUTHWEST OF
AN ELWOOD-BELOIT LINE...ALTHOUGH HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE JUST IN CASE
MODELS SUCH AS THE LATEST HRRR ARE CORRECT IN MAYBE BRINGING A FEW
ROGUE LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE VICINITY OF KEARNEY/MINDEN/RED CLOUD.
AS FOR RAIN AMOUNTS...THE VAST MAJORITY OF PLACES AFFECTED BY THIS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOULD ONLY SEE AROUND 0.05" OR LESS.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SINKS SOUTH...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY START
CLEARING FROM NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY-
CONCERNED ABOUT FOG POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO INSERT A
GENERIC "PATCHY FOG" MENTION INTO THE FAR WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST
CWA FOR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...GENERALLY NORTHWEST
OF A GREELEY-COZAD LINE...PER THE SUGGESTION OF MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR/RAP13. GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SURFACE TEMP-
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES AT THIS POINT. AS FOR
LOW TEMPS...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
39-42 RANGE...AND THUS REMAIN "SAFE" FROM FROST CONCERNS.
DAYTIME HOURS (AFTER 7 AM):
BY THIS TIME THE VAST MAJORITY OF LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE OVER WITH. HOWEVER...WITH A LITTLE MID LEVEL
FORCING/SATURATION STILL LINGERING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWARD-DIVING DISTURBANCE FINALLY
DEPARTS...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES MAINLY IN THE 7-9 AM
TIME FRAME MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED A BRIEF MORNING SPRINKLE MENTION TO COVER THIS. ALSO AS
COVERED IN THE PRECEDING EARLY-MORNING SECTION...WILL LINGER SOME
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH AROUND 9 AM IN A FEW FAR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...BY AND LARGE...THIS SHOULD BE A PRETTY DARN
PLEASANT AND DRY DAY OVERALL. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STEADILY DEPART INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
/MID-SOUTH BY DAY`S END...ALLOWING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO RISE AS
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BECOMES OUR MORE DOMINANT INFLUENCE.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES THIS
MORNING SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. EVEN SO...SUSTAINED
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 10-15
MPH...GENERALLY STRONGEST WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS
FOR SKY COVER...EXPECT THINGS TO MAINLY AVERAGE "MOSTLY SUNNY"
ONCE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT TO THE SOUTH...BUT COULD FORESEE AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF "PARTLY CLOUDY" DUE TO A COMBO OF POSSIBLE
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND/OR A BATCH
OF THIN HIGH CIRRUS SPILLING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. TEMP-
WISE...GIVEN THE FAIRLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS/RESULTANT LIMITED MIXING
AND ALSO SOME POSSIBLE EFFECT OF LINGERING MOIST GROUND...OPTED TO
PLAY A TOUCH CONSERVATIVE AND ACTUALLY NUDGED DOWN HIGHS 1-2
DEGREES MOST AREAS. EVEN SO...HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA INTO
THE 67-70 RANGE...WHICH WILL MARK THE MILDEST DAY IN A WEEK.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
BY THIS TIME THE ENTIRE CWA IS FIRMLY PLANTED UNDER THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE WESTERN RIDGE. MEANWHILE...OFF TO
OUR EAST/NORTHEAST...A WAVE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST STATES COULD SPARK AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT
COULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN IA...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
ALMOST CERTAINLY REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED
THE GOING DRY FORECAST. IN FACT...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE
CLEAR...WITH FEW IF ANY ROGUE PASSING CLOUDS. AT THE
SURFACE...COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A GREAT LAKES LOW/TROUGH AND A RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED TO OUR WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD PROMOTE A LIGHT-BUT-STEADY
WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH EVEN
HINTS OF A WEAK "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT EDGING INTO MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA LATE IN THE NIGHT. DESPITE THIS SOMEWHAT STEADIER
LIGHT BREEZE...THINK THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROBABLY HAVE MORE OF AN
EFFECT ON ENHANCING COOLING POTENTIAL. AIMED LOW TEMPS TOWARD THE
COLDER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BOTTOMING OUT MOST OF THE CWA IN THE 41-44 RANGE. THAT
BEING SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS
SNEAK A FEW DEGREES BELOW THIS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
OVERVIEW...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL VERY SLOWLY SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO OUR FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL WILL SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS HIGHS CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 70S ON
WEDNESDAY...TO THE UPPER 70S FOR THURSDAY...AND THE LOWER 80S BY
FRIDAY. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT...BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND OUR
PAST FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE TOO
FAR WEST FOR US TO SEE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN UNTIL SATURDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. OUR RAIN CHANCES GO UP SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
VORT MAX ROTATES NORTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AROUND THE LARGER
UPPER LOW. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...BUT GIVEN SHEAR AND WIND PROFILES CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. FOR THAT MATTER...CAN NOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY EITHER...AND WE
WILL ACTUALLY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS IN THAT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS
FAR OUT...CONFIDENCE IN STILL VERY LOW IN THE MESOSCALE FEATURES AND
HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...CLIMATOLOGICALLY GIVEN THE BIG UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST AND
THE TIME OF YEAR...IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS
UPPER SYSTEM EVOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL...GIVE OR TAKE A FEW DEGREES OF 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ONLY A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK PREVAILING DURING THESE
FIRST 6 HOURS BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE REST OF
THE TIME. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT MAINLY KEAR COULD CATCH
A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MOST OF THIS LIGHT
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST 25 MILES TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SO
WILL OMIT A FORMAL MENTION. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING UNDER 12KT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TIME AND EVEN UNDER 6KT THROUGH MOST OF THESE FIRST
12 HOURS. THE OVERALL "STRONGEST" BREEZES WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON...AVERAGING AROUND 11KT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
120 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIP
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING CHILLIER
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED GUSTY SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DRYING AND WARMING WILL FOLLOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 120 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THE EARLY MORNING UPDATES.
SHOWERS WERE STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVE.
THERE WERE STILL A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN BLADEN COUNTY. WE EXPECT THE ONGOING ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN LATE THIS EVE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THEN INTO GEORGIA. WE EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION WILL NOT DISSIPATE EVEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AS A GULF OF MEXICO TAP COMBINES WITH FRONTAL LIFT AND A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH.
DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A STRONG
UPSTREAM TROUGH. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SW AND W. THUS...HIGH POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE ARW AND HRRR HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY
ROLL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 07-08Z AND 13-14Z.
THE MAIN RISK WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE INTO
THE SHORT TERM AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN
CONUS. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SERIES OF FACTORS COME IN TO PLAY...INCLUDING FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES...DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT...IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED MORE OR
LESS ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL EITHER
STALL OR SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE THEREAFTER. BOTH GFS AND NAM
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS COULD BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THEN. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL DRYING AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS THE
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...SO EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...EASTERN EDGE OF OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. THE
5H LOW/TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL LIKELY
LEADING TO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE WITH NORTHERN LOCATIONS THE MOST
FAVORED. SIMILAR STORY...MINUS THE COLD FRONT...FRI AND POSSIBLY
SAT. MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVERHEAD GENERATING INSTABILITY SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...KEEPING COVERAGE LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO.
BLOCK STARTS BREAKING DOWN/SHIFTING EAST ON SAT WITH 5H RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR SUN AND MON. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES WHICH PREVENTS MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RETURN AND SETS
UP DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN ADDITION TO SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES SAT NEAR CLIMO BUT THEN ABOVE CLIMO SUN AND MON.
WEAKENING OF THE 5H RIDGE AND CONTINUED EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
RIDGE AXIS MON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN AS THE PERIOD
ENDS. DO NOT THINK PRECIP WILL FALL MON DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE VALID TAF CYCLE...AS AN UNSETTLED
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST.
POCKETS OF IFR CIGS IN LOW-BASED STRATUS EXPECTED THROUGH 13Z
TODAY. S WINDS 6-11 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW AFTER DAYBREAK
WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 21 KTS. SCATTERED TSTMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SURFACE WIND
GUSTS ABOVE 40-50 KT IN +TSRA.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SCT 4SM SHRA
THU AND FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THE EARLY MORNING UPDATES.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT FOR ALL THE WATERS. SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4 TO 5 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS INCREASING. THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE WELL MIXED
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS
LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL STAY SW THROUGH TUESDAY AND ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ADVISORIES TO BE POSTED...CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT FURTHER EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS. IT IS LIKELY THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE WATERS ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING LATE THU AND THU NIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. PINCHED GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION AS HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WILL PUSH WIND SPEEDS
CLOSE TO 20 KT LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. GRADIENT STARTS TO SLOWLY
RELAX FRI WITH WINDS DROPPING FROM 15 TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING TO
10 TO 15 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS 10 TO 15 KT
INTO SAT BEFORE DROPPING CLOSER TO 10 KT LATE SAT AFTERNOON. SEAS
PEAK THU NIGHT...RUNNING 3 TO 5 FT DUE TO THE STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW. SEAS START TO SUBSIDE ON FRI...DROPPING TO 2 TO 4 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH 2 FT OR LESS EXPECTED BY SAT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...COLBY
NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL/MJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1140 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DEEPER MOISTURE HAS EXITED OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL RESIDES UPSTREAM. THIS
WILL ACT TO PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF PVA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO REDEVELOP THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST OF I-65 AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...MODEL MRH TRENDS DECREASE
THROUGH 12Z. CURRENTLY...ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOL LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE INDICATED ON RADAR. FOR THE FCST...WILL OPT TO KEEP
THE FCST AS IS FOR THE MOST PART. ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO REMOVE
TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH...AND REMOVE LIKELY POPS FROM
THE EASTERN PLATEAU. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUR PLATEAU
TOWARD 12Z BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM ITS INCLUSION AT THIS TIME AS IT
LOOKS RATHER BORDERLINE FOR VSBYS AOB 1SM. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW STALLED SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA AND ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS IN PLACE. LOW CLOUDINESS TO REMAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
REMAIN UPSTREAM. CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO JUST ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE. VSBYS COULD DROP AS LOW AS 1SM BY 12Z NEAR CSV.
ELSEWHERE...VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN AOA 3SM.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........21
LONG TERM..................07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
405 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. WITH LIMITED CAPE...VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION
WAS FOUND ALONG THIS COLD FRONT. THE MESO MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE THEN LOCATED NEAR
INTERSTATE 90 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BE EXITING NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING. WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 40S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE
0-1 KM MEAN LAYER CAPES REMAIN CLOSE TO 500 J/KG. LIKE THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...MUCH OF THE SHEAR REMAINS IN THE 0-3 KM RANGE AND
THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
PRIMARILY LINEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN
INVERTED V IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER...THERE WILL GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THERE WILL BE DEEP DIURNAL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. THE RAP /WHICH SOMETIME HAS ISSUES WITH MIXING TOO DEEP/
HAS THE WIND GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND NAM...ONLY
HAVE THE WIND GUSTS REACHING 35 MPH IN THESE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 03.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED
FROST.
ON FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND DEEP MIXING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S. THIS WAS 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL BLEND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS DAY. HOWEVER THEY DID FIT IN WELL WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS
AND ECMWF GRIDS.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SURFACE AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ARE ONLY IN THE THE
500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH BOTH
THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KNOTS...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO DEVELOP.
FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE 03.00Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
TREND DRY. THE GFS AND GEM EVEN KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE PRECIPITATION RETURNING ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW TREND...STAYED WITH WITH
CONSOLIDATED MODEL GRIDS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
SOME LINGERING SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS LATE EVENING AT KLSE...OTHERWISE
GENERALLY EXPECT SKC-SCT CONDITIONS FOR KRST/KLSE INTO TUE
AFTERNOON. MID/HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE LATE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. LIKELY SEE SOME
SCT -SHRA/ISOLD TS MOVING IN TOWARD 00Z WED. BETTER CHANCES BETWEEN
00-05Z TUE EVENING. HAVE ADDED -SHRA MENTION FOR NOW. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD TS THREAT AT THIS TIME...BUT A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW
EARLY TUE EVENING IS POSSIBLE.
LIGHT WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE SAGGY PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS TIGHTENS TUE MORNING...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINTING
TO MIXING AND WIND GUSTS INTO THE MID 20 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 00Z...PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR...WILL SWING WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH TUE EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. THE LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE THERE
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...THE RAIN
WILL LIKELY NOT BE WIDESPREAD. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.25 INCH. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE WIND WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AND WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 10 MPH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1037 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.UPDATE...
MORNING RAOB SAMPLED A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THIS IS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL ENTER OUR AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
AS FAR AS THE FORECAST IS CONCERNED FOR TODAY...IT WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE WARM WITH ANOTHER DAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AREA WIDE. WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...STORM MOTION SHOULD RESULT IN AN
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF ANY SEABREEZE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT ANY
CONVECTION MAY REMAIN EAST OF OUR AREA. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED
BY THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES MODELS. MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AND WILL RE-EXAMINE POPS FOR THIS
EVENING DURING THE AFTN FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY LATE MORNING...INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR SCT TSRA LOOKS TO SHIFT INLAND FAIRLY
QUICKLY WITH THE SEABREEZE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCTS AT
KLAL FROM 18Z ON. OTHERWISE VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED AFTER LATE
MORNING INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE TODAY AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING....BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CAUTIONARY LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
SOLID CAUTIONARY TO BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
IN ITS WAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS THEN LOOK TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 74 80 65 / 20 50 70 10
FMY 90 74 85 66 / 30 20 70 20
GIF 89 72 81 62 / 40 30 70 10
SRQ 85 76 81 66 / 20 40 70 20
BKV 87 70 81 59 / 20 60 70 10
SPG 85 75 80 68 / 20 50 70 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/MCKAUGHAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
741 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN
MANITOBA INTO THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NW
ONTARIO WILL BE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS
FCST IT TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGE HAS MOVED SE IN ADVANCE OF
TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO. SOME MID-LVL WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE SPILLED INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN
UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
TODAY...MODELS SHOW THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 250-300 MB
JET MAX NOSING INTO MN. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE 200-500 J/KG
RANGE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7C OR GREATER MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA...OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF
SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHRA MAKING IT
INTO THE CNTRL AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES
INTO THE 25-35 PCT RANGE COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS FOR
MAINLY THE WRN/CENTRAL INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH FACTORS ARE MARGINAL FOR
MEETING LOCAL CRITERIA DECIDED TO ISSUE A WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
STATEMENT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF ELEVATED WILDFIRE
CONCERNS/POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA AS FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY E OF THE
REGION. CAA WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS. COULD
SEE NORTH WINDS GUST 25-30 MPH OVERNIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FM
KEWEENAW EAST TO WHITEFISH POINT. LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
WITH ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT COULD ALSO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT -SHSN TO MIX IN WITH -SHRA/-DZ MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NCNTRL. EXPECT COVERAGE OF -SHRA TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
MID-LVL DRYING AS SHALLOW MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW -10C ISOTHERM WL
SUPPORT MORE -DZ.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WEDNESDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS PRECIP WILL
STALL OVER LOWER MI ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...UPSLOPE FLOW
WITH N TO NNW WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY COMPARED TO TODAY. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
INLAND...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC LOW ACROSS LOWER MI TO NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND A LAKE-INDUCED MESO-HIGH ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL RESULT IN N TO NNW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CENTRAL AND
EAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WAA PRECIP
ACROSS THE FAR WEST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD AS AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMS ACROSS THE
CONUS. WITH THE RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES...WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE TRENDED
UP WITH TEMPS FOR FRI GIVEN IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS AND H8 TEMPS
AROUND 15C FOR THE WEST. SHOULD SEE A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR
WEST HALF CRACK THE 80F MARK...WHILE TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE LOWER
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS FASTER TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
FRONT NOW CLEARING THE CWA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH A RESIDUAL EML FROM FRIDAY SUPPORT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME. SAT WILL BRING
COOLER CONDITIONS...BUT THE CHANGE WONT BE AS DRASTIC AS WILL BE THE
CASE BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS THEN MODERATE
MONDAY AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KSAW WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO WED MORNING. KCMX AND KIWD WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS LIKELY THERE.
IN FACT...THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT KIWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AT BOTH KCMX AND
KSAW. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WSW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH
WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
642 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
In the short term, concern will be duration of fog that has
developed over portions of central MO. Cloud cover and slightly
drier air advecting into that region is complicating the forecast
and increasing the uncertainty as to how long any fog will persist.
Will go with a Dense Fog Adv thru about 13z for portions of central
MO and address changes as needed.
Otherwise, main concern today will be cloud cover, and therefore,
also temps today.
Mdls are in fairly good agreement with phasing of the upper trof and
pushing swd thru the area today. This shud be just enuf support to
generate isod SHRA again this afternoon. However, do not believe
that coverage will be as great as yesterday and shud be confined to
the srn third or so of the CWA. This same area will see much more
cloud cover than the remainder of the area. Have therefore trended
aob the cooler guidance for today in these areas. Elsewhere, trended
twd a compromise.
Tilly
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
While upper level shortwave exits forecast area, secondary cold
front to approach region this evening. Will see activity continue to
fire up along the boundary, moving into northern portions of forecast
area by 04z Wednesday. Some decent instability, so would not be
surprised to see showers with some isolated thunderstorms as
activity sinks south tonight. Best chances will be along and east
of Mississippi River. Otherwise, it will be a bit milder with lows
in the mid 40s to low 50s.
On Wednesday, cold front to exit forecast area with some lingering
precipitation over eastern portions of forecast area. With northerly
flow over region, will see highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, just a
bit below normal.
Region dries out for remainder of work week as surface ridge builds
in. Temperatures to moderate, warming back up into the mid to upper
70s on Friday, then into the upper 70s to low 80s on Saturday.
No major changes to forecast for last half of weekend as next system
moves into the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be on the
increase Saturday night and persist through Monday.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Overall, conditions will improve over the next couple of hours. CU
is expected to develop today becoming sct to bkn with bases
around 6 kft. Winds will become nwly behind a cdfnt tonight. This
fnt is expected to bring SHRA to UIN and possibly STL/SUS/CPS, but
much of the precip will remain E of the terminals. Have also added
LLWS for COU/UIN late tonight.
Tilly
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 67 53 66 46 / 20 20 10 0
Quincy 68 49 64 43 / 10 30 5 0
Columbia 67 50 67 44 / 10 5 5 0
Jefferson City 68 50 69 45 / 10 5 5 0
Salem 65 49 64 44 / 10 40 30 5
Farmington 63 46 67 43 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Moniteau MO.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
633 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Fog in the main concern early this morning. Clouds continue over
the eastern cwfa, but where it has cleared over the west we have
seen shallow fog which has been dense at times. The visibility at
airport sites has been bouncing around which indicates shallow
and/or patchy fog at those sites. Low lying terrain, hollows,
creek and river valleys/lakes will have the best chances for
seeing dense fog. After some collaboration with other offices will
continue to monitor for a possible short fused fog advisory. Have
already bumped up the fog wording in other messaging.
Another upper level shortwave will move through the area, exiting
late this afternoon/early this evening. Have more clouds and
chances for rw--/sprinkles over our eastern counties to account
for this. It will remain unseasonably cool as we remain on the
"troughy" downwind side of a large upper level blocking ridge
over western NOAM.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
The high amplitude ridge over the west will edge slowly east this
week. One more shortwave will dig south into the OH Vly Wed with a
dry frontal passage for us. A warming trend will then develop late
in the week. Wed/Thu will be cooler than normal with lows well
down in the 40s, especially over the eastern cwfa. Friday should
see a big diurnal swing in temperatures with lows in the 40s and
highs pushing 80 deg F in some spots. With the upper ridge
overhead Sat, most areas should reach the low 80s.
There is good general agreement with global models of a closed
upper low moving slowly out of the Rockies and into the Plains
early next week. Subtle lead shortwaves will move northeast
into/through our area during this time as the upper ridge flattens
out and pushes off to our east. Details on how or in what manner
the upper system moves into the Plains are still in doubt, but
generally we should see rain/tstm chances increase Sunday/Mon with
a persistent fetch developing out of the western Gulf and
increased general lift with the approach of the longwave trough
and lead shortwaves.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Areas of dense fog will impact portions of the Ozarks this morning
as light to calm surface winds and clearing skies allow for fog
formation at area terminals. Fog will produce IFR flight
conditions at the KJLN and KSGF terminals and temporary MVFR
conditions for KBBG. Flight conditions will improve to VFR by mid
morning and remain VFR through Wednesday morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>057-
067>069-077>080-088>090-093>095-101>103.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
624 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 409 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
Areas of fog have developed overnight generally along and
southeast of a Kirksville to St. Joseph line. A few of these
locations, especially across the extreme southeast portion of the
CWA where skies remain clear, have seen visibilities dropping below
a 1/4 mile at times. Expect fog to begin to mix out around 13Z;
however, with light winds expected for much of the day, fog may
linger a bit longer in some locations.
A trough digging towards the northern Southern Plains will bring a
few clouds to the area today, but otherwise dry weather is finally
here. Despite the trough moving through the region today, daytime
highs should still be able to climb into the upper 60s due in part
to surface ridging still in place. A weak cold front will swing
through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but with limited cold
air behind the front, afternoon temperatures will be able to quickly
rebound into the upper 60s and low 70s. A few showers may develop
across north-central Missouri as the front moves through, but with
main vort max east of the CWA, the bulk of any convective
development will also remain east.
Upper level trough positioned across the Northeast and another
trough inland along the California coast, will allow upper level
ridging to build over the west-central US. Even with the CWA in more
of the northwest flow pattern, temperatures will gradually warm
through the week...approaching the upper 70s and maybe low 80s by
Friday. Ridge will begin to break down Friday evening and Saturday
as western trough begins to eject into the Great Basin. This system
will be our next decent shot for rain chances Sunday into Monday.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
Fog will begin to dissipate between 13-14Z this morning. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the period.
Scattered cu deck will develop by early this afternoon and will
persist overnight as a weak cold front approaches the region from the
north. Winds will remain light through the prevailing period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ031>033-
038>040-044>046-054.
&&
$$
Discussion...PMM
Aviation...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 409 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
Areas of fog have developed overnight generally along and
southeast of a Kirksville to St. Joseph line. A few of these
locations, especially across the extreme southeast portion of the
CWA where skies remain clear, have seen visibilities dropping below
a 1/4 mile at times. Expect fog to begin to mix out around 13Z;
however, with light winds expected for much of the day, fog may
linger a bit longer in some locations.
A trough digging towards the northern Southern Plains will bring a
few clouds to the area today, but otherwise dry weather is finally
here. Despite the trough moving through the region today, daytime
highs should still be able to climb into the upper 60s due in part
to surface ridging still in place. A weak cold front will swing
through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but with limited cold
air behind the front, afternoon temperatures will be able to quickly
rebound into the upper 60s and low 70s. A few showers may develop
across north-central Missouri as the front moves through, but with
main vort max east of the CWA, the bulk of any convective
development will also remain east.
Upper level trough positioned across the Northeast and another
trough inland along the California coast, will allow upper level
ridging to build over the west-central US. Even with the CWA in more
of the northwest flow pattern, temperatures will gradually warm
through the week...approaching the upper 70s and maybe low 80s by
Friday. Ridge will begin to break down Friday evening and Saturday
as western trough begins to eject into the Great Basin. This system
will be our next decent shot for rain chances Sunday into Monday.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Clearing sky conditions, light winds, and cooling temperatures has
resulted in MVFR to LIFR fog for areas east of the terminals as of
Monday night. Terminals should follow suit overnight with MVFR to
possibly IFR fog as temperatures continue to cool. Conditions will
improve near daybreak as light winds return to northwesterly through
Tuesday afternoon and evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...PMM
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
408 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
In the short term, concern will be duration of fog that has
developed over portions of central MO. Cloud cover and slightly
drier air advecting into that region is complicating the forecast
and increasing the uncertainty as to how long any fog will persist.
Will go with a Dense Fog Adv thru about 13z for portions of central
MO and address changes as needed.
Otherwise, main concern today will be cloud cover, and therefore,
also temps today.
Mdls are in fairly good agreement with phasing of the upper trof and
pushing swd thru the area today. This shud be just enuf support to
generate isod SHRA again this afternoon. However, do not believe
that coverage will be as great as yesterday and shud be confined to
the srn third or so of the CWA. This same area will see much more
cloud cover than the remainder of the area. Have therefore trended
aob the cooler guidance for today in these areas. Elsewhere, trended
twd a compromise.
Tilly
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
While upper level shortwave exits forecast area, secondary cold
front to approach region this evening. Will see activity continue to
fire up along the boundary, moving into northern portions of forecast
area by 04z Wednesday. Some decent instability, so would not be
surprised to see showers with some isolated thunderstorms as
activity sinks south tonight. Best chances will be along and east
of Mississippi River. Otherwise, it will be a bit milder with lows
in the mid 40s to low 50s.
On Wednesday, cold front to exit forecast area with some lingering
precipitation over eastern portions of forecast area. With northerly
flow over region, will see highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, just a
bit below normal.
Region dries out for remainder of work week as surface ridge builds
in. Temperatures to moderate, warming back up into the mid to upper
70s on Friday, then into the upper 70s to low 80s on Saturday.
No major changes to forecast for last half of weekend as next system
moves into the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be on the
increase Saturday night and persist through Monday.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Surface ridge was just northwest of our area this evening with
gradual clearing from the northwest. This clearing trend should
continue overnight at UIN and the St Louis metro area. Low stratus
and fog developed quickly at COU after the sky cleared out this
evening and this may happen at the other taf sites as well. The
stratus and fog will dissipate Tuesday morning followed by the
development of diurnal cumulus cloudiness, especially in COU and
the St Louis metro area with VFR conditions. Light surface wind
late tonight, then a west-northwest wind on Tuesday. The low
level clouds will clear out Tuesday evening with the wind backing
around to a southwest direction.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR, low level cloud ceiling may gradually
clear out overnight with the development of stratus clouds and
fog towards morning. This stratus and fog will dissipate by late
Tuesday morning followed by the development of diurnal cumulus
clouds late Tuesday morning and afternoon in the VFR catagory.
These clouds should dissipate Tuesday evening. A light surface
wind late tonight will increase to around 7 kts from a northwest
direction Tuesday afternoon. The surface wind will back around to
a southwest direction Tuesday evening.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 67 53 66 46 / 20 20 10 0
Quincy 68 49 64 43 / 10 30 5 0
Columbia 67 50 67 44 / 10 5 5 0
Jefferson City 68 50 69 45 / 10 5 5 0
Salem 65 49 64 44 / 10 40 30 5
Farmington 63 46 67 43 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Moniteau MO.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Fog in the main concern early this morning. Clouds continue over
the eastern cwfa, but where it has cleared over the west we have
seen shallow fog which has been dense at times. The visibility at
airport sites has been bouncing around which indicates shallow
and/or patchy fog at those sites. Low lying terrain, hollows,
creek and river valleys/lakes will have the best chances for
seeing dense fog. After some collaboration with other offices will
continue to monitor for a possible short fused fog advisory. Have
already bumped up the fog wording in other messaging.
Another upper level shortwave will move through the area, exiting
late this afternoon/early this evening. Have more clouds and
chances for rw--/sprinkles over our eastern counties to account
for this. It will remain unseasonably cool as we remain on the
"troughy" downwind side of a large upper level blocking ridge
over western NOAM.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
The high amplitude ridge over the west will edge slowly east this
week. One more shortwave will dig south into the OH Vly Wed with a
dry frontal passage for us. A warming trend will then develop late
in the week. Wed/Thu will be cooler than normal with lows well
down in the 40s, especially over the eastern cwfa. Friday should
see a big diurnal swing in temperatures with lows in the 40s and
highs pushing 80 deg F in some spots. With the upper ridge
overhead Sat, most areas should reach the low 80s.
There is good general agreement with global models of a closed
upper low moving slowly out of the Rockies and into the Plains
early next week. Subtle lead shortwaves will move northeast
into/through our area during this time as the upper ridge flattens
out and pushes off to our east. Details on how or in what manner
the upper system moves into the Plains are still in doubt, but
generally we should see rain/tstm chances increase Sunday/Mon with
a persistent fetch developing out of the western Gulf and
increased general lift with the approach of the longwave trough
and lead shortwaves.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Confidence is increasing that fog will develop overnight due to
clearing skies and nearly calm winds. This includes increasing
potential for IFR and even LIFR fog...especially around Joplin and
Springfield. Confidence is slightly less around Branson.
Fog will then lift by mid-morning on Tuesday with VFR returning by
around midday (if not sooner). Winds will be light out of the
northwest on Tuesday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Fog in the main concern early this morning. Clouds continue over
the eastern cwfa, but where it has cleared over the west we have
seen shallow fog which has been dense at times. The visibility at
airport sites has been bouncing around which indicates shallow
and/or patchy fog at those sites. Low lying terrain, hollows,
creek and river valleys/lakes will have the best chances for
seeing dense fog. After some collaboration with other offices will
continue to monitor for a possible short fused fog advisory. Have
already bumped up the fog wording in other messaging.
Another upper level shortwave will move through the area, exiting
late this afternoon/early this evening. Have more clouds and
chances for rw--/sprinkles over our eastern counties to account
for this. It will remain unseasonably cool as we remain on the
"troughy" downwind side of a large upper level blocking ridge
over western NOAM.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
The high amplitude ridge over the west will edge slowly east this
week. One more shortwave will dig south into the OH Vly Wed with a
dry frontal passage for us. A warming trend will then develop late
in the week. Wed/Thu will be cooler than normal with lows well
down in the 40s, especially over the eastern cwfa. Friday should
see a big diurnal swing in temperatures with lows in the 40s and
highs pushing 80 deg F in some spots. With the upper ridge
overhead Sat, most areas should reach the low 80s.
There is good general agreement with global models of a closed
upper low moving slowly out of the Rockies and into the Plains
early next week. Subtle lead shortwaves will move northeast
into/through our area during this time as the upper ridge flattens
out and pushes off to our east. Details on how or in what manner
the upper system moves into the Plains are still in doubt, but
generally we should see rain/tstm chances increase Sunday/Mon with
a persistent fetch developing out of the western Gulf and
increased general lift with the approach of the longwave trough
and lead shortwaves.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Confidence is increasing that fog will develop overnight due to
clearing skies and nearly calm winds. This includes increasing
potential for IFR and even LIFR fog...especially around Joplin and
Springfield. Confidence is slightly less around Branson.
Fog will then lift by mid-morning on Tuesday with VFR returning by
around midday (if not sooner). Winds will be light out of the
northwest on Tuesday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
...Updated Public and Aviation...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Inserted a mention of patchy fog over all but south-central
Missouri for the overnight period. Temperature/dew point
depressions are already below five degrees where skies have
cleared. With winds expected to be nearly calm, fog seems like a
good bet. Coverage and intensity may need to be adjusted depending
on sky trends across south-central Missouri. It`s not out of the
question that a Dense Fog Advisory may eventually be needed...
especially across western Missouri and extreme southeastern
Kansas.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Lots of stratus/stratocu remain across the area with several
disturbances embedded within the cyclonic flow aloft across the
region. Measurable rainfall has pushed off to the southeast, more
in line with the surface frontal boundary. The cloud cover has
kept temperatures in the 50s to low 60s across the area.
The main forecast focus for the work week will be with
temperatures and with the next chance of rain as we head into the
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Cyclonic flow aloft will continue both tonight and Tuesday with
several waves of upper level energy pushing through the area. This
will likely keep a good deal of cloud cover over the area through
the short term period. Temperatures will be on the cool side again
tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s. Highs should climb back
into the mid to upper 60s on Tuesday. Moisture will be limited, so
will keep precipitation chances below 15 percent at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
By Tuesday night, the main shortwave will have pushed through the
area and should start to see clearing. The main upper low will
then track to the southeast across the Ohio valley region. The SGF
CWA should remain in northerly flow aloft with surface high
pressure over the region, so will see some cool nights both
Tuesday and Wednesday night with lows in the 40s. Will start to
see a warmup for the end of the work week as upper level ridging
builds into the area. By Friday, the upper ridge will be overhead
with low level warm advection starting to develop. Temperatures
should start to climb back into the 70s on Thursday and well into
the 70s by Friday.
As we head into the weekend, energy from a large closed low in the
Rockies will start lifting into the area from the southwest and we
will start to see showers and thunderstorms developing over the
area. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms look to be
late in the weekend into early next week as the main shortwave
will begin to push into the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Confidence is increasing that fog will develop overnight due to
clearing skies and nearly calm winds. This includes increasing
potential for IFR and even LIFR fog...especially around Joplin and
Springfield. Confidence is slightly less around Branson.
Fog will then lift by mid-morning on Tuesday with VFR returning by
around midday (if not sooner). Winds will be light out of the
northwest on Tuesday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
...Updated Public and Aviation...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Inserted a mention of patchy fog over all but south-central
Missouri for the overnight period. Temperature/dew point
depressions are already below five degrees where skies have
cleared. With winds expected to be nearly calm, fog seems like a
good bet. Coverage and intensity may need to be adjusted depending
on sky trends across south-central Missouri. It`s not out of the
question that a Dense Fog Advisory may eventually be needed...
especially across western Missouri and extreme southeastern
Kansas.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Lots of stratus/stratocu remain across the area with several
disturbances embedded within the cyclonic flow aloft across the
region. Measurable rainfall has pushed off to the southeast, more
in line with the surface frontal boundary. The cloud cover has
kept temperatures in the 50s to low 60s across the area.
The main forecast focus for the work week will be with
temperatures and with the next chance of rain as we head into the
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Cyclonic flow aloft will continue both tonight and Tuesday with
several waves of upper level energy pushing through the area. This
will likely keep a good deal of cloud cover over the area through
the short term period. Temperatures will be on the cool side again
tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s. Highs should climb back
into the mid to upper 60s on Tuesday. Moisture will be limited, so
will keep precipitation chances below 15 percent at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
By Tuesday night, the main shortwave will have pushed through the
area and should start to see clearing. The main upper low will
then track to the southeast across the Ohio valley region. The SGF
CWA should remain in northerly flow aloft with surface high
pressure over the region, so will see some cool nights both
Tuesday and Wednesday night with lows in the 40s. Will start to
see a warmup for the end of the work week as upper level ridging
builds into the area. By Friday, the upper ridge will be overhead
with low level warm advection starting to develop. Temperatures
should start to climb back into the 70s on Thursday and well into
the 70s by Friday.
As we head into the weekend, energy from a large closed low in the
Rockies will start lifting into the area from the southwest and we
will start to see showers and thunderstorms developing over the
area. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms look to be
late in the weekend into early next week as the main shortwave
will begin to push into the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016
Confidence is increasing that fog will develop overnight due to
clearing skies and nearly calm winds. This includes increasing
potential for IFR and even LIFR fog...especially around Joplin and
Springfield. Confidence is slightly less around Branson.
Fog will then lift by mid-morning on Tuesday with VFR returning by
around midday (if not sooner). Winds will be light out of the
northwest on Tuesday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1125 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Weak shortwave trough currently over western Missouri will move
across the CWA this evening. This may be enough for a few light
showers or sprinkles over the area this evening. Otherwise, expect
the rest of the night to be dry as some weak subsidence works into
the area. MOS guidance is in good agreement and looks reasonable
for lows.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
(Tuesday through Thursday)
GFS/ECMWF/NAM are still in agreement that upper pattern will be
highly amplified over North America at midweek with north-
northwesterly flow setting up over Missouri and Illinois. Still
looks like another upper trough will pass through the area on
Tuesday with only limited low level moisture and forcing, so will go
with a mainly dry forecast at this point. Models are in good
agreement that an upper low will drop through the Great Lakes into
the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. The attendant cold front will pass
through the area late Tuesday night into early Wednesday night, and
the GFS/NAM shows the best low level moisture and forcing will still
limit rain chances to just the eastern part of the CWA. Still expect
Thursday to be dry as the upper low moves off to the southeast as
subsidence builds in over the area.
Temperatures will remain below normal the next few days as we will
be mainly in cold air advection and as 850mb temperatures stay
between 0-5C. MOS guidance temperatures are in good agreement and
are mainly in the 60s.
(Friday through Monday)
Upper pattern will begin to transition late week into early next
week as the upper ridge moves across the Midwest and the upper flow
goes from northwesterly to southwesterly. Still expect that Friday
and Saturday will be dry as the upper ridge will move across the
area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase
by Sunday as southwesterly low level flow begins to bring Gulf
moisture back into the area. Both the GFS and ECMWF are showing a
frontal boundary moving south into the area by late Sunday into
Monday that will act as a focus for thunderstorm development.
Temperatures will start out near normal on Friday as the surface
high moves off to our east, but then we will then climb above normal
in the southwesterly low level flow over the weekend. 850mb
temperatures will also climb to around 15C next weekend which
supports temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Surface ridge was just northwest of our area this evening with
gradual clearing from the northwest. This clearing trend should
continue overnight at UIN and the St Louis metro area. Low stratus
and fog developed quickly at COU after the sky cleared out this
evening and this may happen at the other taf sites as well. The
stratus and fog will dissipate Tuesday morning followed by the
development of diurnal cumulus cloudiness, especially in COU and
the St Louis metro area with VFR conditions. Light surface wind
late tonight, then a west-northwest wind on Tuesday. The low
level clouds will clear out Tuesday evening with the wind backing
around to a southwest direction.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR, low level cloud ceiling may gradually
clear out overnight with the development of stratus clouds and
fog towards morning. This stratus and fog will dissipate by late
Tuesday morning followed by the development of diurnal cumulus
clouds late Tuesday morning and afternoon in the VFR catagory.
These clouds should dissipate Tuesday evening. A light surface
wind late tonight will increase to around 7 kts from a northwest
direction Tuesday afternoon. The surface wind will back around to
a southwest direction Tuesday evening.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1042 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Today`s been a bit of a cloudy cool day, with a few instability
showers percolating across the region thanks to a series of troughs
that recently ejected from the Desert Southwest through the Central
Plains. Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows another larger
shortwave trough digging, almost due south, this afternoon through
the northern Plains as it exits the Canadian Plains, which has
reinforced the 500mb weakness noted across the center of the Nation.
However, ultimately this northern Plains shortwave will have little
effect on the sensible forecast other than helping clear the clouds
out.
Tonight the Canadian Plains trough will continue its way south, and
will eventually swing to the southeast later Tuesday. However, this
particular trough is not dragging too much cold air with it, and
therefore will do more to lower humidity values and clear the skies
of the cloud cover that has been hanging out for the past couple of
days than anything else. So, despite the north wind that will
prevail, highs Tuesday are expected to climb to around 70 degrees
thanks to the insolation under sunny skies. And, the weather for the
rest of the work week looks just as nice, if not nicer.
With the exiting of the Canadian shortwave Tuesday a bit of a
blocking pattern looks to set up across the Nation which will induce
a ridge across the Plains as large troughs take up residence on the
East and West Coasts. This will keep our section of the country dry
through Saturday, with highs possibly around 80 degrees by Friday
and Saturday. However, we will have to watch for when the West Coast
trough ejects through the Plains as that will likely result in our
next decent and widespread chance of rain. Current model solutions
point at this possibility occurring as early as Saturday night and
Sunday, but mid-range model solutions for closed circulations --like
the West Coast one expected-- typically slow down as the solutions
get closer to reality. Therefore, confidence in storms arriving as
early as Saturday night is rather low with confidence growing for
Sunday and Monday of next week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Clearing sky conditions, light winds, and cooling temperatures has
resulted in MVFR to LIFR fog for areas east of the terminals as of
Monday night. Terminals should follow suit overnight with MVFR to
possibly IFR fog as temperatures continue to cool. Conditions will
improve near daybreak as light winds return to northwesterly through
Tuesday afternoon and evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
629 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Today`s been a bit of a cloudy cool day, with a few instability
showers percolating across the region thanks to a series of troughs
that recently ejected from the Desert Southwest through the Central
Plains. Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows another larger
shortwave trough digging, almost due south, this afternoon through
the northern Plains as it exits the Canadian Plains, which has
reinforced the 500mb weakness noted across the center of the Nation.
However, ultimately this northern Plains shortwave will have little
effect on the sensible forecast other than helping clear the clouds
out.
Tonight the Canadian Plains trough will continue its way south, and
will eventually swing to the southeast later Tuesday. However, this
particular trough is not dragging too much cold air with it, and
therefore will do more to lower humidity values and clear the skies
of the cloud cover that has been hanging out for the past couple of
days than anything else. So, despite the north wind that will
prevail, highs Tuesday are expected to climb to around 70 degrees
thanks to the insolation under sunny skies. And, the weather for the
rest of the work week looks just as nice, if not nicer.
With the exiting of the Canadian shortwave Tuesday a bit of a
blocking pattern looks to set up across the Nation which will induce
a ridge across the Plains as large troughs take up residence on the
East and West Coasts. This will keep our section of the country dry
through Saturday, with highs possibly around 80 degrees by Friday
and Saturday. However, we will have to watch for when the West Coast
trough ejects through the Plains as that will likely result in our
next decent and widespread chance of rain. Current model solutions
point at this possibility occurring as early as Saturday night and
Sunday, but mid-range model solutions for closed circulations --like
the West Coast one expected-- typically slow down as the solutions
get closer to reality. Therefore, confidence in storms arriving as
early as Saturday night is rather low with confidence growing for
Sunday and Monday of next week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Aside from a few periodic sprinkles this evening, impacts will be
minimal through the forecast period. Light winds will vary until
sunrise as a surface ridge pushes eastward overnight. VFR stratus
will begin to thin out Tuesday morning with light winds becoming
northwesterly.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
629 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Today`s been a bit of a cloudy cool day, with a few instability
showers percolating across the region thanks to a series of troughs
that recently ejected from the Desert Southwest through the Central
Plains. Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows another larger
shortwave trough digging, almost due south, this afternoon through
the northern Plains as it exits the Canadian Plains, which has
reinforced the 500mb weakness noted across the center of the Nation.
However, ultimately this northern Plains shortwave will have little
effect on the sensible forecast other than helping clear the clouds
out.
Tonight the Canadian Plains trough will continue its way south, and
will eventually swing to the southeast later Tuesday. However, this
particular trough is not dragging too much cold air with it, and
therefore will do more to lower humidity values and clear the skies
of the cloud cover that has been hanging out for the past couple of
days than anything else. So, despite the north wind that will
prevail, highs Tuesday are expected to climb to around 70 degrees
thanks to the insolation under sunny skies. And, the weather for the
rest of the work week looks just as nice, if not nicer.
With the exiting of the Canadian shortwave Tuesday a bit of a
blocking pattern looks to set up across the Nation which will induce
a ridge across the Plains as large troughs take up residence on the
East and West Coasts. This will keep our section of the country dry
through Saturday, with highs possibly around 80 degrees by Friday
and Saturday. However, we will have to watch for when the West Coast
trough ejects through the Plains as that will likely result in our
next decent and widespread chance of rain. Current model solutions
point at this possibility occurring as early as Saturday night and
Sunday, but mid-range model solutions for closed circulations --like
the West Coast one expected-- typically slow down as the solutions
get closer to reality. Therefore, confidence in storms arriving as
early as Saturday night is rather low with confidence growing for
Sunday and Monday of next week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Aside from a few periodic sprinkles this evening, impacts will be
minimal through the forecast period. Light winds will vary until
sunrise as a surface ridge pushes eastward overnight. VFR stratus
will begin to thin out Tuesday morning with light winds becoming
northwesterly.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
624 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
...00Z Aviation Update...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Lots of stratus/stratocu remain across the area with several
disturbances embedded within the cyclonic flow aloft across the
region. Measurable rainfall has pushed off to the southeast, more
in line with the surface frontal boundary. The cloud cover has
kept temperatures in the 50s to low 60s across the area.
The main forecast focus for the work week will be with
temperatures and with the next chance of rain as we head into the
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Cyclonic flow aloft will continue both tonight and Tuesday with
several waves of upper level energy pushing through the area. This
will likely keep a good deal of cloud cover over the area through
the short term period. Temperatures will be on the cool side again
tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s. Highs should climb back
into the mid to upper 60s on Tuesday. Moisture will be limited, so
will keep precipitation chances below 15 percent at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
By Tuesday night, the main shortwave will have pushed through the
area and should start to see clearing. The main upper low will
then track to the southeast across the Ohio valley region. The SGF
CWA should remain in northerly flow aloft with surface high
pressure over the region, so will see some cool nights both
Tuesday and Wednesday night with lows in the 40s. Will start to
see a warmup for the end of the work week as upper level ridging
builds into the area. By Friday, the upper ridge will be overhead
with low level warm advection starting to develop. Temperatures
should start to climb back into the 70s on Thursday and well into
the 70s by Friday.
As we head into the weekend, energy from a large closed low in the
Rockies will start lifting into the area from the southwest and we
will start to see showers and thunderstorms developing over the
area. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms look to be
late in the weekend into early next week as the main shortwave
will begin to push into the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Widespread MVFR stratus deck should begin to dissipate with sunset
this evening. By mid to late evening, skies should range from
nearly clear at JLN, to FEW to SCT at SGF and BBG. Later tonight,
fog will be possible where skies start to clear, along with the
potential for stratus building back in at SGF and especially BBG.
IFR potential is very unclear at this time, though BBG should have
the highest probability, and have included a tempo group for 2SM
BR for now. Elsewhere, only took vis down to 3SM, though some
guidance does hint at vis dropping to less than a mile in a few
areas. Will continue to monitor through the evening and amend as
needed.
Any fog/stratus will lift by mid morning Tuesday, with light
north winds through the day.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
624 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
...00Z Aviation Update...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Lots of stratus/stratocu remain across the area with several
disturbances embedded within the cyclonic flow aloft across the
region. Measurable rainfall has pushed off to the southeast, more
in line with the surface frontal boundary. The cloud cover has
kept temperatures in the 50s to low 60s across the area.
The main forecast focus for the work week will be with
temperatures and with the next chance of rain as we head into the
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Cyclonic flow aloft will continue both tonight and Tuesday with
several waves of upper level energy pushing through the area. This
will likely keep a good deal of cloud cover over the area through
the short term period. Temperatures will be on the cool side again
tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s. Highs should climb back
into the mid to upper 60s on Tuesday. Moisture will be limited, so
will keep precipitation chances below 15 percent at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
By Tuesday night, the main shortwave will have pushed through the
area and should start to see clearing. The main upper low will
then track to the southeast across the Ohio valley region. The SGF
CWA should remain in northerly flow aloft with surface high
pressure over the region, so will see some cool nights both
Tuesday and Wednesday night with lows in the 40s. Will start to
see a warmup for the end of the work week as upper level ridging
builds into the area. By Friday, the upper ridge will be overhead
with low level warm advection starting to develop. Temperatures
should start to climb back into the 70s on Thursday and well into
the 70s by Friday.
As we head into the weekend, energy from a large closed low in the
Rockies will start lifting into the area from the southwest and we
will start to see showers and thunderstorms developing over the
area. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms look to be
late in the weekend into early next week as the main shortwave
will begin to push into the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Widespread MVFR stratus deck should begin to dissipate with sunset
this evening. By mid to late evening, skies should range from
nearly clear at JLN, to FEW to SCT at SGF and BBG. Later tonight,
fog will be possible where skies start to clear, along with the
potential for stratus building back in at SGF and especially BBG.
IFR potential is very unclear at this time, though BBG should have
the highest probability, and have included a tempo group for 2SM
BR for now. Elsewhere, only took vis down to 3SM, though some
guidance does hint at vis dropping to less than a mile in a few
areas. Will continue to monitor through the evening and amend as
needed.
Any fog/stratus will lift by mid morning Tuesday, with light
north winds through the day.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
608 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Weak shortwave trough currently over western Missouri will move
across the CWA this evening. This may be enough for a few light
showers or sprinkles over the area this evening. Otherwise, expect
the rest of the night to be dry as some weak subsidence works into
the area. MOS guidance is in good agreement and looks reasonable
for lows.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
(Tuesday through Thursday)
GFS/ECMWF/NAM are still in agreement that upper pattern will be
highly amplified over North America at midweek with north-
northwesterly flow setting up over Missouri and Illinois. Still
looks like another upper trough will pass through the area on
Tuesday with only limited low level moisture and forcing, so will go
with a mainly dry forecast at this point. Models are in good
agreement that an upper low will drop through the Great Lakes into
the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. The attendant cold front will pass
through the area late Tuesday night into early Wednesday night, and
the GFS/NAM shows the best low level moisture and forcing will still
limit rain chances to just the eastern part of the CWA. Still expect
Thursday to be dry as the upper low moves off to the southeast as
subsidence builds in over the area.
Temperatures will remain below normal the next few days as we will
be mainly in cold air advection and as 850mb temperatures stay
between 0-5C. MOS guidance temperatures are in good agreement and
are mainly in the 60s.
(Friday through Monday)
Upper pattern will begin to transition late week into early next
week as the upper ridge moves across the Midwest and the upper flow
goes from northwesterly to southwesterly. Still expect that Friday
and Saturday will be dry as the upper ridge will move across the
area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase
by Sunday as southwesterly low level flow begins to bring Gulf
moisture back into the area. Both the GFS and ECMWF are showing a
frontal boundary moving south into the area by late Sunday into
Monday that will act as a focus for thunderstorm development.
Temperatures will start out near normal on Friday as the surface
high moves off to our east, but then we will then climb above normal
in the southwesterly low level flow over the weekend. 850mb
temperatures will also climb to around 15C next weekend which
supports temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
The cloud ceiling at 2000-4000 feet should gradually rise this
evening with a few sprinkles or light showers possible as an
upper level disturbance moves through the area. Should be VFR by
late evening with even the possibility of the low level cloud
deck scattering out in places late tonight/early Tuesday morning.
There may be some patchy light fog late tonight/early Tuesday
morning. Some diurnal cumulus cloudiness is expected on Tuesday
especially in COU and the St Louis metro area with VFR
conditions. Mainly a northwest wind through the period, albeit
becoming light later this evening.
Specifics for KSTL: The MVFR cigs should become VFR later this
evening. There may be a few sprinkles early this evening. The
cloud ceiling may scatter out late tonight and early Tuesday
morning, but diurnal cumulus clouds will develop late Tuesday
morning and afternoon in the VFR catagory. These clouds should
dissipate Tuesday evening. Northwest wind will become light later
this evening, then increase to around 7 kts Tuesday afternoon. The
surface wind will back around to a southwest direction Tuesday
evening.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
608 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Weak shortwave trough currently over western Missouri will move
across the CWA this evening. This may be enough for a few light
showers or sprinkles over the area this evening. Otherwise, expect
the rest of the night to be dry as some weak subsidence works into
the area. MOS guidance is in good agreement and looks reasonable
for lows.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
(Tuesday through Thursday)
GFS/ECMWF/NAM are still in agreement that upper pattern will be
highly amplified over North America at midweek with north-
northwesterly flow setting up over Missouri and Illinois. Still
looks like another upper trough will pass through the area on
Tuesday with only limited low level moisture and forcing, so will go
with a mainly dry forecast at this point. Models are in good
agreement that an upper low will drop through the Great Lakes into
the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. The attendant cold front will pass
through the area late Tuesday night into early Wednesday night, and
the GFS/NAM shows the best low level moisture and forcing will still
limit rain chances to just the eastern part of the CWA. Still expect
Thursday to be dry as the upper low moves off to the southeast as
subsidence builds in over the area.
Temperatures will remain below normal the next few days as we will
be mainly in cold air advection and as 850mb temperatures stay
between 0-5C. MOS guidance temperatures are in good agreement and
are mainly in the 60s.
(Friday through Monday)
Upper pattern will begin to transition late week into early next
week as the upper ridge moves across the Midwest and the upper flow
goes from northwesterly to southwesterly. Still expect that Friday
and Saturday will be dry as the upper ridge will move across the
area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase
by Sunday as southwesterly low level flow begins to bring Gulf
moisture back into the area. Both the GFS and ECMWF are showing a
frontal boundary moving south into the area by late Sunday into
Monday that will act as a focus for thunderstorm development.
Temperatures will start out near normal on Friday as the surface
high moves off to our east, but then we will then climb above normal
in the southwesterly low level flow over the weekend. 850mb
temperatures will also climb to around 15C next weekend which
supports temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
The cloud ceiling at 2000-4000 feet should gradually rise this
evening with a few sprinkles or light showers possible as an
upper level disturbance moves through the area. Should be VFR by
late evening with even the possibility of the low level cloud
deck scattering out in places late tonight/early Tuesday morning.
There may be some patchy light fog late tonight/early Tuesday
morning. Some diurnal cumulus cloudiness is expected on Tuesday
especially in COU and the St Louis metro area with VFR
conditions. Mainly a northwest wind through the period, albeit
becoming light later this evening.
Specifics for KSTL: The MVFR cigs should become VFR later this
evening. There may be a few sprinkles early this evening. The
cloud ceiling may scatter out late tonight and early Tuesday
morning, but diurnal cumulus clouds will develop late Tuesday
morning and afternoon in the VFR catagory. These clouds should
dissipate Tuesday evening. Northwest wind will become light later
this evening, then increase to around 7 kts Tuesday afternoon. The
surface wind will back around to a southwest direction Tuesday
evening.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
320 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Today`s been a bit of a cloudy cool day, with a few instability
showers percolating across the region thanks to a series of troughs
that recently ejected from the Desert Southwest through the Central
Plains. Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows another larger
shortwave trough digging, almost due south, this afternoon through
the northern Plains as it exits the Canadian Plains, which has
reinforced the 500mb weakness noted across the center of the Nation.
However, ultimately this northern Plains shortwave will have little
effect on the sensible forecast other than helping clear the clouds
out.
Tonight the Canadian Plains trough will continue its way south, and
will eventually swing to the southeast later Tuesday. However, this
particular trough is not dragging too much cold air with it, and
therefore will do more to lower humidity values and clear the skies
of the cloud cover that has been hanging out for the past couple of
days than anything else. So, despite the north wind that will
prevail, highs Tuesday are expected to climb to around 70 degrees
thanks to the insolation under sunny skies. And, the weather for the
rest of the work week looks just as nice, if not nicer.
With the exiting of the Canadian shortwave Tuesday a bit of a
blocking pattern looks to set up across the Nation which will induce
a ridge across the Plains as large troughs take up residence on the
East and West Coasts. This will keep our section of the country dry
through Saturday, with highs possibly around 80 degrees by Friday
and Saturday. However, we will have to watch for when the West Coast
trough ejects through the Plains as that will likely result in our
next decent and widespread chance of rain. Current model solutions
point at this possibility occurring as early as Saturday night and
Sunday, but mid-range model solutions for closed circulations --like
the West Coast one expected-- typically slow down as the solutions
get closer to reality. Therefore, confidence in storms arriving as
early as Saturday night is rather low with confidence growing for
Sunday and Monday of next week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
MVFR ceilings are prevailing at the western Missouri terminals early
this afternoon, but clearing is noted on satellite shifting south and
will spread across the sites by the late afternoon hours with VFR
conditions to prevail afterwards. Expect the north wind to ease up
this evening and back to the west by Tuesday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Weak shortwave trough currently over western Missouri will move
across the CWA this evening. This may be enough to a few light
showers or sprinkles over the area this evening. Otherwise, expect
the rest of the night to be dry as some weak subsidence works into
the area. MOS guidance is in good agreement and looks reasonable
for lows.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
(Tuesday through Thursday)
GFS/ECMWF/NAM are still in agreement that upper pattern will be
highly amplified over North America at midweek with north-
northwesterly flow setting up over Missouri and Illinois. Still
looks like another upper trough will pass through the area on
Tuesday with only limited low level moisture and forcing, so will go
with a mainly dry forecast at this point. Models are in good
agreement that an upper low will drop through the Great Lakes into
the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. The attendant cold front will pass
through the area late Tuesday night into early Wednesday night, and
the GFS/NAM shows the best low level moisture and forcing will still
limit rain chances to just the eastern part of the CWA. Still expect
Thursday to be dry as the upper low moves off to the southeast as
subsidence builds in over the area.
Temperatures will remain below normal the next few days as we will
be mainly in cold air advection and as 850mb temperatures stay
between 0-5C. MOS guidance temperatures are in good agreement and
are mainly in the 60s.
(Friday through Monday)
Upper pattern will begin to transition late week into early next
week as the upper ridge moves across the Midwest and the upper flow
goes from northwesterly to southwesterly. Still expect that Friday
and Saturday will be dry as the upper ridge will move across the
area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase
by Sunday as southwesterly low level flow begins to bring Gulf
moisture back into the area. Both the GFS and ECMWF are showing a
frontal boundary moving south into the area by late Sunday into
Monday that will act as a focus for thunderstorm development.
Temperatures will start out near normal on Friday as the surface
high moves off to our east, but then we will then climb above normal
in the southwesterly low level flow over the weekend. 850mb
temperatures will also climb to around 15C next weekend which
supports temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: MVFR cigs are expected at KUIN/KCOU
through the afternoon before cigs rise to to low-end VFR and
remain there for the rest of the pd. Winds remain either lgt/var
or northwesterly and light.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Brief pds of MVFR cigs are
possible for the next hour or two. Cigs should remain
predominantly low-end VFR for most of the TAF pd. Winds remain
either lgt/var or northwesterly and light.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
225 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Lots of stratus/stratocu remain across the area with several
disturbances embedded within the cyclonic flow aloft across the
region. Measurable rainfall has pushed off to the southeast, more
in line with the surface frontal boundary. The cloud cover has
kept temperatures in the 50s to low 60s across the area.
The main forecast focus for the work week will be with
temperatures and with the next chance of rain as we head into the
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Cyclonic flow aloft will continue both tonight and Tuesday with
several waves of upper level energy pushing through the area. This
will likely keep a good deal of cloud cover over the area through
the short term period. Temperatures will be on the cool side again
tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s. Highs should climb back
into the mid to upper 60s on Tuesday. Moisture will be limited, so
will keep precipitation chances below 15 percent at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
By Tuesday night, the main shortwave will have pushed through the
area and should start to see clearing. The main upper low will
then track to the southeast across the Ohio valley region. The SGF
CWA should remain in northerly flow aloft with surface high
pressure over the region, so will see some cool nights both
Tuesday and Wednesday night with lows in the 40s. Will start to
see a warmup for the end of the work week as upper level ridging
builds into the area. By Friday, the upper ridge will be overhead
with low level warm advection starting to develop. Temperatures
should start to climb back into the 70s on Thursday and well into
the 70s by Friday.
As we head into the weekend, energy from a large closed low in the
Rockies will start lifting into the area from the southwest and we
will start to see showers and thunderstorms developing over the
area. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms look to be
late in the weekend into early next week as the main shortwave
will begin to push into the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
MVFR ceilings will hold on across the area this afternoon for all
TAF sites with a gradual improvement to VFR late afternoon into
this evening. Will mention the possibility of some MVFR light fog
possible tonight with a TEMPO group between 09-12z tonight with 4
to 5 SM light fog possible. VFR conditions will continue into
tomorrow morning. Winds will be light and northwesterly about 10
knots or less.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Griffin
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
100 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Complex and messy upper air pattern remains across the region this
morning. Leading s/w continues to approach the region early this
morning and is responsible for light RA across swrn into central MO.
This area of precip shud continue to move newd thru the area this
morning. Mdls suggest it will dissipate as it moves into the CWA
around sunrise. While this is possible due to the better low level
moisture convergence pushes S of the area, believe the leading s/w
will be sufficient to maintain higher PoPs thru mid-morning.
For the remainder of the day, have kept PoPs in the slight chance
range for now as isod to widely sct SHRA are expected today.
However, coverage may be somewhat higher across nrn half to third
of the CWA as the upper trof pulls newd thru the area today. The
bulk of these SHRA will be diurnally driven and shud dissipate
this evening.
As for temps today, with extensive cloud cover in place, and with
the trof in place today, do not expect much clearing today except
for the srn third or so of the CWA. Where breaks to occur this
morning, believe CU will develop, filling them in. This complicates
the temps forecast for today as a strong May sun can help temps jump
even with a short period of insolation. Still, believe clouds will
be the rule for today and have trended temps aob the cooler guidance
for much of the CWA. The exception will be the srn portions where
more insolation is expected. This same area is also along and S of
the 850mb fnt, which shud help warm temps today.
Tilly
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Will see some lingering isolated/scattered showers this evening
in cyclonic flow on back side of system. The activity will
gradually taper off. Otherwise, clouds to slowly thin out from
north to south overnight and lows will be in the 40s, a bit below
normal for this time of year.
Because of the lingering cyclonic flow, could still see some
isolated showers in the far eastern portions of forecast area on
Tuesday. However, most locations to remain dry with partly sunny
skies and highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Then Tuesday night, a more vigorous trof/secondary cold front
associated with surface low anchored over the Great Lakes region to
slide south through area. So increased pops with scattered showers
for portions of west central/southwest IL Tuesday night through
Wednesday, as main energy to remain to our northeast and east.
For rest of work week, will see dry conditions with temperatures
slowly moderating. By Friday highs will be in the low to mid 70s and
in the upper 70s to low 80s on Saturday. Then next significant
weather system to approach region Saturday night and Sunday with
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms through the rest
of the weekend.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: MVFR cigs are expected at KUIN/KCOU
through the afternoon before cigs rise to to low-end VFR and
remain there for the rest of the pd. Winds remain either lgt/var
or northwesterly and light.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Brief pds of MVFR cigs are
possible for the next hour or two. Cigs should remain
predominantly low-end VFR for most of the TAF pd. Winds remain
either lgt/var or northwesterly and light.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
100 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Complex and messy upper air pattern remains across the region this
morning. Leading s/w continues to approach the region early this
morning and is responsible for light RA across swrn into central MO.
This area of precip shud continue to move newd thru the area this
morning. Mdls suggest it will dissipate as it moves into the CWA
around sunrise. While this is possible due to the better low level
moisture convergence pushes S of the area, believe the leading s/w
will be sufficient to maintain higher PoPs thru mid-morning.
For the remainder of the day, have kept PoPs in the slight chance
range for now as isod to widely sct SHRA are expected today.
However, coverage may be somewhat higher across nrn half to third
of the CWA as the upper trof pulls newd thru the area today. The
bulk of these SHRA will be diurnally driven and shud dissipate
this evening.
As for temps today, with extensive cloud cover in place, and with
the trof in place today, do not expect much clearing today except
for the srn third or so of the CWA. Where breaks to occur this
morning, believe CU will develop, filling them in. This complicates
the temps forecast for today as a strong May sun can help temps jump
even with a short period of insolation. Still, believe clouds will
be the rule for today and have trended temps aob the cooler guidance
for much of the CWA. The exception will be the srn portions where
more insolation is expected. This same area is also along and S of
the 850mb fnt, which shud help warm temps today.
Tilly
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Will see some lingering isolated/scattered showers this evening
in cyclonic flow on back side of system. The activity will
gradually taper off. Otherwise, clouds to slowly thin out from
north to south overnight and lows will be in the 40s, a bit below
normal for this time of year.
Because of the lingering cyclonic flow, could still see some
isolated showers in the far eastern portions of forecast area on
Tuesday. However, most locations to remain dry with partly sunny
skies and highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Then Tuesday night, a more vigorous trof/secondary cold front
associated with surface low anchored over the Great Lakes region to
slide south through area. So increased pops with scattered showers
for portions of west central/southwest IL Tuesday night through
Wednesday, as main energy to remain to our northeast and east.
For rest of work week, will see dry conditions with temperatures
slowly moderating. By Friday highs will be in the low to mid 70s and
in the upper 70s to low 80s on Saturday. Then next significant
weather system to approach region Saturday night and Sunday with
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms through the rest
of the weekend.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: MVFR cigs are expected at KUIN/KCOU
through the afternoon before cigs rise to to low-end VFR and
remain there for the rest of the pd. Winds remain either lgt/var
or northwesterly and light.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Brief pds of MVFR cigs are
possible for the next hour or two. Cigs should remain
predominantly low-end VFR for most of the TAF pd. Winds remain
either lgt/var or northwesterly and light.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1234 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Water vapor imagery early this morning showing a well-defined
wave diving south through the upper Miss Vly/northern Central Plains
in developing northerly flow aloft. Out ahead of this
feature...regional radars showing a concentrated area of shwr
activity just to our south along the I-44 corridor...with a secondary
area of lighter activity noted across east-central Kansas. This
secondary region may lead to a few light sprinkles/shwrs across the
KC Metro and surrounding areas this morning...and grids have been
adjusted accordingly. Otherwise...fcst models continue to hint at
developing instability shwrs across all areas later today as main
upper wave passes. This activity will most likely develop after
15z...and the very spotty appearance in available short-term model
guidance precludes going anything higher than a slgt chc mention for
now. With regards to high temps...periodic breaks in the cloud cover
should allow temps to warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s this
afternoon...with the warmest values expected across the western
zones.
Secondary wave to pass across the region overnight however with loss
of weak daytime instability and an influx of drier air...feature
should pass with little impact. Tomorrow will mark the start of a
pleasant and mostly dry period which will persist through the
remainder of the work week. Following the passage of a weak but dry
cold front Tuesday night/early Wednesday...fcst models largely in
agreement that a strong omega block will develop over the Nation`s
midsection towards the latter half of the work week. As a
result...building heights and developing warm air advection by Friday
should allow a nice warming trend to get underway heading into the
weekend. In fact temps by Saturday could be flirting with the 80
degree mark as the ridge axis passes directly overhead. While
Saturday looks dry...next round of shwrs/storms looks to return on
Sunday as upper pattern begins shifting to the southwest ahead of a
strong Great Basin upper low. Gulf looks to open right up heading
into the late weekend with precip chances easily continuing into
early next week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
MVFR ceilings are prevailing at the western Missouri terminals early
this afternoon, but clearing is noted on satellite shifting south and
will spread across the sites by the late afternoon hours with VFR
conditions to prevail afterwards. Expect the north wind to ease up
this evening and back to the west by Tuesday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...32
Aviation...Cutter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1234 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Water vapor imagery early this morning showing a well-defined
wave diving south through the upper Miss Vly/northern Central Plains
in developing northerly flow aloft. Out ahead of this
feature...regional radars showing a concentrated area of shwr
activity just to our south along the I-44 corridor...with a secondary
area of lighter activity noted across east-central Kansas. This
secondary region may lead to a few light sprinkles/shwrs across the
KC Metro and surrounding areas this morning...and grids have been
adjusted accordingly. Otherwise...fcst models continue to hint at
developing instability shwrs across all areas later today as main
upper wave passes. This activity will most likely develop after
15z...and the very spotty appearance in available short-term model
guidance precludes going anything higher than a slgt chc mention for
now. With regards to high temps...periodic breaks in the cloud cover
should allow temps to warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s this
afternoon...with the warmest values expected across the western
zones.
Secondary wave to pass across the region overnight however with loss
of weak daytime instability and an influx of drier air...feature
should pass with little impact. Tomorrow will mark the start of a
pleasant and mostly dry period which will persist through the
remainder of the work week. Following the passage of a weak but dry
cold front Tuesday night/early Wednesday...fcst models largely in
agreement that a strong omega block will develop over the Nation`s
midsection towards the latter half of the work week. As a
result...building heights and developing warm air advection by Friday
should allow a nice warming trend to get underway heading into the
weekend. In fact temps by Saturday could be flirting with the 80
degree mark as the ridge axis passes directly overhead. While
Saturday looks dry...next round of shwrs/storms looks to return on
Sunday as upper pattern begins shifting to the southwest ahead of a
strong Great Basin upper low. Gulf looks to open right up heading
into the late weekend with precip chances easily continuing into
early next week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
MVFR ceilings are prevailing at the western Missouri terminals early
this afternoon, but clearing is noted on satellite shifting south and
will spread across the sites by the late afternoon hours with VFR
conditions to prevail afterwards. Expect the north wind to ease up
this evening and back to the west by Tuesday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...32
Aviation...Cutter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1234 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Water vapor imagery early this morning showing a well-defined
wave diving south through the upper Miss Vly/northern Central Plains
in developing northerly flow aloft. Out ahead of this
feature...regional radars showing a concentrated area of shwr
activity just to our south along the I-44 corridor...with a secondary
area of lighter activity noted across east-central Kansas. This
secondary region may lead to a few light sprinkles/shwrs across the
KC Metro and surrounding areas this morning...and grids have been
adjusted accordingly. Otherwise...fcst models continue to hint at
developing instability shwrs across all areas later today as main
upper wave passes. This activity will most likely develop after
15z...and the very spotty appearance in available short-term model
guidance precludes going anything higher than a slgt chc mention for
now. With regards to high temps...periodic breaks in the cloud cover
should allow temps to warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s this
afternoon...with the warmest values expected across the western
zones.
Secondary wave to pass across the region overnight however with loss
of weak daytime instability and an influx of drier air...feature
should pass with little impact. Tomorrow will mark the start of a
pleasant and mostly dry period which will persist through the
remainder of the work week. Following the passage of a weak but dry
cold front Tuesday night/early Wednesday...fcst models largely in
agreement that a strong omega block will develop over the Nation`s
midsection towards the latter half of the work week. As a
result...building heights and developing warm air advection by Friday
should allow a nice warming trend to get underway heading into the
weekend. In fact temps by Saturday could be flirting with the 80
degree mark as the ridge axis passes directly overhead. While
Saturday looks dry...next round of shwrs/storms looks to return on
Sunday as upper pattern begins shifting to the southwest ahead of a
strong Great Basin upper low. Gulf looks to open right up heading
into the late weekend with precip chances easily continuing into
early next week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
MVFR ceilings are prevailing at the western Missouri terminals early
this afternoon, but clearing is noted on satellite shifting south and
will spread across the sites by the late afternoon hours with VFR
conditions to prevail afterwards. Expect the north wind to ease up
this evening and back to the west by Tuesday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...32
Aviation...Cutter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1234 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Water vapor imagery early this morning showing a well-defined
wave diving south through the upper Miss Vly/northern Central Plains
in developing northerly flow aloft. Out ahead of this
feature...regional radars showing a concentrated area of shwr
activity just to our south along the I-44 corridor...with a secondary
area of lighter activity noted across east-central Kansas. This
secondary region may lead to a few light sprinkles/shwrs across the
KC Metro and surrounding areas this morning...and grids have been
adjusted accordingly. Otherwise...fcst models continue to hint at
developing instability shwrs across all areas later today as main
upper wave passes. This activity will most likely develop after
15z...and the very spotty appearance in available short-term model
guidance precludes going anything higher than a slgt chc mention for
now. With regards to high temps...periodic breaks in the cloud cover
should allow temps to warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s this
afternoon...with the warmest values expected across the western
zones.
Secondary wave to pass across the region overnight however with loss
of weak daytime instability and an influx of drier air...feature
should pass with little impact. Tomorrow will mark the start of a
pleasant and mostly dry period which will persist through the
remainder of the work week. Following the passage of a weak but dry
cold front Tuesday night/early Wednesday...fcst models largely in
agreement that a strong omega block will develop over the Nation`s
midsection towards the latter half of the work week. As a
result...building heights and developing warm air advection by Friday
should allow a nice warming trend to get underway heading into the
weekend. In fact temps by Saturday could be flirting with the 80
degree mark as the ridge axis passes directly overhead. While
Saturday looks dry...next round of shwrs/storms looks to return on
Sunday as upper pattern begins shifting to the southwest ahead of a
strong Great Basin upper low. Gulf looks to open right up heading
into the late weekend with precip chances easily continuing into
early next week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
MVFR ceilings are prevailing at the western Missouri terminals early
this afternoon, but clearing is noted on satellite shifting south and
will spread across the sites by the late afternoon hours with VFR
conditions to prevail afterwards. Expect the north wind to ease up
this evening and back to the west by Tuesday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...32
Aviation...Cutter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1156 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
...18z Aviation Forecast Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
A blocking pattern is in place with a high amplitude ridge axis
over western NOAM with downstream troughing over the Midwest into
the central Plains. Clouds and some light radar return are
occurring in a band of forcing roughly along the I-44 corridor. We
will continue to see sprinkles/r-/r-- today with abundant clouds
and cool temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Another disturbance/shortwave will pivot through the area Tue.
Some guidance has been spitting out precip here and there Tue
afternoon and with relatively cool air aloft this makes sense.
Certainly nothing noteworthy other than sprinkles and clouds at
times.
One more shortwave now over the high latitudes of Canada will
moves sse into MN by midday Tue and then into the OH Vly Wed. This
will veer winds to the nw-nnw Wednesday but little else. A
warming trend will occur late in the week as the western upper
level ridge moves into the Plains. 850mb temperatures support
highs in the low 80s deg F for Sat.
General global model agreement exists in shifting a closed upper
low into the central High Plains by late Sunday. A downstream
weakening upper level ridge axis will still be in place near or
just east of our cwfa. Low amplitude lead shortwaves ahead of the
parent low are expected to move n-nne into/through the region with
increased chances for showers/tstms, especially over the western
cwfa late Saturday night and Sunday. This could begin an extended
unsettled humid period of ocnl showers/tstms into the work week
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
MVFR ceilings will hold on across the area this afternoon for all
TAF sites with a gradual improvement to VFR late afternoon into
this evening. Will mention the possibility of some MVFR light fog
possible tonight with a TEMPO group between 09-12z tonight with 4
to 5 SM light fog possible. VFR conditions will continue into
tomorrow morning. Winds will be light and northwesterly about 10
knots or less.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Griffin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1156 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
...18z Aviation Forecast Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
A blocking pattern is in place with a high amplitude ridge axis
over western NOAM with downstream troughing over the Midwest into
the central Plains. Clouds and some light radar return are
occurring in a band of forcing roughly along the I-44 corridor. We
will continue to see sprinkles/r-/r-- today with abundant clouds
and cool temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Another disturbance/shortwave will pivot through the area Tue.
Some guidance has been spitting out precip here and there Tue
afternoon and with relatively cool air aloft this makes sense.
Certainly nothing noteworthy other than sprinkles and clouds at
times.
One more shortwave now over the high latitudes of Canada will
moves sse into MN by midday Tue and then into the OH Vly Wed. This
will veer winds to the nw-nnw Wednesday but little else. A
warming trend will occur late in the week as the western upper
level ridge moves into the Plains. 850mb temperatures support
highs in the low 80s deg F for Sat.
General global model agreement exists in shifting a closed upper
low into the central High Plains by late Sunday. A downstream
weakening upper level ridge axis will still be in place near or
just east of our cwfa. Low amplitude lead shortwaves ahead of the
parent low are expected to move n-nne into/through the region with
increased chances for showers/tstms, especially over the western
cwfa late Saturday night and Sunday. This could begin an extended
unsettled humid period of ocnl showers/tstms into the work week
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
MVFR ceilings will hold on across the area this afternoon for all
TAF sites with a gradual improvement to VFR late afternoon into
this evening. Will mention the possibility of some MVFR light fog
possible tonight with a TEMPO group between 09-12z tonight with 4
to 5 SM light fog possible. VFR conditions will continue into
tomorrow morning. Winds will be light and northwesterly about 10
knots or less.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Griffin
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
651 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Complex and messy upper air pattern remains across the region this
morning. Leading s/w continues to approach the region early this
morning and is responsible for light RA across swrn into central MO.
This area of precip shud continue to move newd thru the area this
morning. Mdls suggest it will dissipate as it moves into the CWA
around sunrise. While this is possible due to the better low level
moisture convergence pushes S of the area, believe the leading s/w
will be sufficient to maintain higher PoPs thru mid-morning.
For the remainder of the day, have kept PoPs in the slight chance
range for now as isod to widely sct SHRA are expected today.
However, coverage may be somewhat higher across nrn half to third
of the CWA as the upper trof pulls newd thru the area today. The
bulk of these SHRA will be diurnally driven and shud dissipate
this evening.
As for temps today, with extensive cloud cover in place, and with
the trof in place today, do not expect much clearing today except
for the srn third or so of the CWA. Where breaks to occur this
morning, believe CU will develop, filling them in. This complicates
the temps forecast for today as a strong May sun can help temps jump
even with a short period of insolation. Still, believe clouds will
be the rule for today and have trended temps aob the cooler guidance
for much of the CWA. The exception will be the srn portions where
more insolation is expected. This same area is also along and S of
the 850mb fnt, which shud help warm temps today.
Tilly
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Will see some lingering isolated/scattered showers this evening
in cyclonic flow on back side of system. The activity will
gradually taper off. Otherwise, clouds to slowly thin out from
north to south overnight and lows will be in the 40s, a bit below
normal for this time of year.
Because of the lingering cyclonic flow, could still see some
isolated showers in the far eastern portions of forecast area on
Tuesday. However, most locations to remain dry with partly sunny
skies and highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Then Tuesday night, a more vigorous trof/secondary cold front
associated with surface low anchored over the Great Lakes region to
slide south through area. So increased pops with scattered showers
for portions of west central/southwest IL Tuesday night through
Wednesday, as main energy to remain to our northeast and east.
For rest of work week, will see dry conditions with temperatures
slowly moderating. By Friday highs will be in the low to mid 70s and
in the upper 70s to low 80s on Saturday. Then next significant
weather system to approach region Saturday night and Sunday with
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms through the rest
of the weekend.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Expect bkn to ovc clouds thru much of today, with clouds breaking
up this evening. A couple of areas of light RA are moving thru the
region this morning. Expect SHRA to develop by Noon across the
region and dissipate this evening. Given the isod nature of these
SHRA, have only mentioned VCSH during the times for best chances
of impacting terminals for now. Will need to continue to monitor
as some of the latest guidance suggests coverage may be higher for
KUIN/KCOU this afternoon. Cigs will be difficult today with KUIN
gradually improving thru the day. KCOU shud remain in MVFR range
thru the morning and perhaps into the afternoon before improving.
Otherwise, nwly winds will prevail today becoming light tonight.
Specifics for KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: Cigs shud lower into MVFR range over
the next couple of hours. Expect isod SHRA to develop later this
morning into the afternoon hours. Cigs shud move E of terminals
with cloud clearing out this evening.
Tilly
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 60 48 67 52 / 30 20 10 10
Quincy 55 44 66 49 / 20 10 10 20
Columbia 57 44 67 49 / 20 5 10 10
Jefferson City 58 44 68 49 / 20 5 10 5
Salem 62 48 65 49 / 20 20 20 20
Farmington 62 45 67 47 / 20 10 10 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
645 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
A blocking pattern is in place with a high amplitude ridge axis
over western NOAM with downstream troughing over the Midwest into
the central Plains. Clouds and some light radar return are
occurring in a band of forcing roughly along the I-44 corridor. We
will continue to see sprinkles/r-/r-- today with abundant clouds
and cool temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Another disturbance/shortwave will pivot through the area Tue.
Some guidance has been spitting out precip here and there Tue
afternoon and with relatively cool air aloft this makes sense.
Certainly nothing noteworthy other than sprinkles and clouds at
times.
One more shortwave now over the high latitudes of Canada will
moves sse into MN by midday Tue and then into the OH Vly Wed. This
will veer winds to the nw-nnw Wednesday but little else. A
warming trend will occur late in the week as the western upper
level ridge moves into the Plains. 850mb temperatures support
highs in the low 80s deg F for Sat.
General global model agreement exists in shifting a closed upper
low into the central High Plains by late Sunday. A downstream
weakening upper level ridge axis will still be in place near or
just east of our cwfa. Low amplitude lead shortwaves ahead of the
parent low are expected to move n-nne into/through the region with
increased chances for showers/tstms, especially over the western
cwfa late Saturday night and Sunday. This could begin an extended
unsettled humid period of ocnl showers/tstms into the work week
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Cloud cover will be the rule for much of the forecast for the
regions terminals through Tuesday early morning. Ceilings will be
MVFR through this morning with VFR ceilings expected for the
remainder of the afternoon and evening. A few showers will also be
possible for the Springfield and Branson aerodromes early this
morning. Overall flight conditions will begin to improve
overnight as cloud cover scatters out early Tuesday morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
318 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Complex and messy upper air pattern remains across the region this
morning. Leading s/w continues to approach the region early this
morning and is responsible for light RA across swrn into central MO.
This area of precip shud continue to move newd thru the area this
morning. Mdls suggest it will dissipate as it moves into the CWA
around sunrise. While this is possible due to the better low level
moisture convergence pushes S of the area, believe the leading s/w
will be sufficient to maintain higher PoPs thru mid-morning.
For the remainder of the day, have kept PoPs in the slight chance
range for now as isod to widely sct SHRA are expected today.
However, coverage may be somewhat higher across nrn half to third
of the CWA as the upper trof pulls newd thru the area today. The
bulk of these SHRA will be diurnally driven and shud dissipate
this evening.
As for temps today, with extensive cloud cover in place, and with
the trof in place today, do not expect much clearing today except
for the srn third or so of the CWA. Where breaks to occur this
morning, believe CU will develop, filling them in. This complicates
the temps forecast for today as a strong May sun can help temps jump
even with a short period of insolation. Still, believe clouds will
be the rule for today and have trended temps aob the cooler guidance
for much of the CWA. The exception will be the srn portions where
more insolation is expected. This same area is also along and S of
the 850mb fnt, which shud help warm temps today.
Tilly
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Will see some lingering isolated/scattered showers this evening
in cyclonic flow on back side of system. The activity will
gradually taper off. Otherwise, clouds to slowly thin out from
north to south overnight and lows will be in the 40s, a bit below
normal for this time of year.
Because of the lingering cyclonic flow, could still see some
isolated showers in the far eastern portions of forecast area on
Tuesday. However, most locations to remain dry with partly sunny
skies and highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Then Tuesday night, a more vigorous trof/secondary cold front
associated with surface low anchored over the Great Lakes region to
slide south through area. So increased pops with scattered showers
for portions of west central/southwest IL Tuesday night through
Wednesday, as main energy to remain to our northeast and east.
For rest of work week, will see dry conditions with temperatures
slowly moderating. By Friday highs will be in the low to mid 70s and
in the upper 70s to low 80s on Saturday. Then next significant
weather system to approach region Saturday night and Sunday with
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms through the rest
of the weekend.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Surface low over southern IN will continue moving eastward
late tonight. Surface ridging extended from the Plains into
northwestern MO. MVFR cigs over northern portions of MO and IL
which were over UIN and have just moved into COU should continue
to slowly advect south-southeastward into the St Louis metro area
around 06-07Z Monday. These cigs will drop into the IFR catagory
by early Monday morning. There will also be light fog late
tonight and early Monday morning. The cloud ceiling will gradually
rise into the MVFR catagory late Monday morning, and possibly into
the VFR catagory by late Monday afternoon or early Monday evening.
A narrow band of light showers moving into southwest MO may move
into COU and the St Louis metro area early Monday morning. An
upper level disturbance will also bring widely scattered showers
to the area on Monday, especially during the afternoon. A
northwesterly surface wind will continue through the period.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs will move southeastward into STL
around 06Z Monday. The ceiling will drop into the IFR catagory
by early morning with light fog developing. The fog will
dissipate by late morning along with the cigs rising into the MVFR
catagory. The ceiling may rise into the VFR catagory by late
Monday afternoon or early Monday evening. There may be a few
showers on Monday. Nwly surface wind will continue through the
period, becoming light Monday evening.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 60 48 67 52 / 30 20 10 10
Quincy 55 44 66 49 / 20 10 10 20
Columbia 57 44 67 49 / 20 5 10 10
Jefferson City 58 44 68 49 / 20 5 10 5
Salem 62 48 65 49 / 20 20 20 20
Farmington 62 45 67 47 / 20 10 10 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
300 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
A blocking pattern is in place with a high amplitude ridge axis
over western NOAM with downstream troughing over the Midwest into
the central Plains. Clouds and some light radar return are
occurring in a band of forcing roughly along the I-44 corridor. We
will continue to see sprinkles/r-/r-- today with abundant clouds
and cool temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Another disturbance/shortwave will pivot through the area Tue.
Some guidance has been spitting out precip here and there Tue
afternoon and with relatively cool air aloft this makes sense.
Certainly nothing noteworthy other than sprinkles and clouds at
times.
One more shortwave now over the high latitudes of Canada will
moves sse into MN by midday Tue and then into the OH Vly Wed. This
will veer winds to the nw-nnw Wednesday but little else. A
warming trend will occur late in the week as the western upper
level ridge moves into the Plains. 850mb temperatures support
highs in the low 80s deg F for Sat.
General global model agreement exists in shifting a closed upper
low into the central High Plains by late Sunday. A downstream
weakening upper level ridge axis will still be in place near or
just east of our cwfa. Low amplitude lead shortwaves ahead of the
parent low are expected to move n-nne into/through the region with
increased chances for showers/tstms, especially over the western
cwfa late Saturday night and Sunday. This could begin an extended
unsettled humid period of ocnl showers/tstms into the work week
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
A weak upper level storm system will produce a few light rain
showers across southern Missouri overnight. Ceilings will also
lower into the MVFR category by late tonight. There is still a
signal for a brief period of IFR ceilings just after
sunrise...especially around Springfield.
Ceilings will then improve from mid-morning onward on Monday.
However, MVFR will remain likely through at least early afternoon.
Winds will remain out of the northwest generally below 10 knots.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
254 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Water vapor imagery early this morning showing a well-defined
wave diving south through the upper Miss Vly/northern Central Plains
in developing northerly flow aloft. Out ahead of this
feature...regional radars showing a concentrated area of shwr
activity just to our south along the I-44 corridor...with a secondary
area of lighter activity noted across east-central Kansas. This
secondary region may lead to a few light sprinkles/shwrs across the
KC Metro and surrounding areas this morning...and grids have been
adjusted accordingly. Otherwise...fcst models continue to hint at
developing instability shwrs across all areas later today as main
upper wave passes. This activity will most likely develop after
15z...and the very spotty appearance in available short-term model
guidance precludes going anything higher than a slgt chc mention for
now. With regards to high temps...periodic breaks in the cloud cover
should allow temps to warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s this
afternoon...with the warmest values expected across the western
zones.
Secondary wave to pass across the region overnight however with loss
of weak daytime instability and an influx of drier air...feature
should pass with little impact. Tomorrow will mark the start of a
pleasant and mostly dry period which will persist through the
remainder of the work week. Following the passage of a weak but dry
cold front Tuesday night/early Wednesday...fcst models largely in
agreement that a strong omega block will develop over the Nation`s
midsection towards the latter half of the work week. As a
result...building heights and developing warm air advection by Friday
should allow a nice warming trend to get underway heading into the
weekend. In fact temps by Saturday could be flirting with the 80
degree mark as the ridge axis passes directly overhead. While
Saturday looks dry...next round of shwrs/storms looks to return on
Sunday as upper pattern begins shifting to the southwest ahead of a
strong Great Basin upper low. Gulf looks to open right up heading
into the late weekend with precip chances easily continuing into
early next week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Drier air slowly working into the region early this morning which is
resulting in a categorical increase back to VFR at most forecast
locations. For now...have decided to play the optimistic card and
currently have a mostly VFR fcst through roughly 14z at all
locations. After this time...daytime heating and the arrival of the
next weather system will result in a brief period if MVFR cigs before
improving by the 18z time frame. As this feature arrives...a brief
shwr or two will be possible at all locations with activity likely
coming to an end by 00z. Winds to remain from the northwest between
5-10 kts.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...32
Aviation...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1233 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 219 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
A little wet and cloudy along the Iowa border with comparatively
nice conditions farther south across east central Kansas into
central Missouri has been the prevailing pattern for today. However,
the upper level shortwave trough is sliding northeast out of Iowa
this afternoon has induced enough of a return flow on the backside
that low clouds and a few showers are now moving through northern
Missouri. Areas south of the Missouri River where able to bound in
the 60s, but cloud cover and northerly winds farther north have kept
conditions cooler and damper.
Rest of the afternoon through Monday...cool, cloud, and likely
damp,conditions will prevail. While the shortwave in Iowa is moving
away this afternoon, a follow on shortwave trough is expected to
quickly exit the Desert Southwest late tonight, ejecting along a
slightly more southern track than the leading shortwave moving
through Iowa. Ultimately, this should keep the lower clouds and
potential for scattered showers persisting across the region
overnight and through the day Monday as a result. Have tossed in
chance POPs for late Monday morning and the afternoon hours as the
shortwave trough ejects into and through the Southern and Central
Plains. This could make for a soupy day, with low clouds, drizzle
and scattered showers dominating. However, with the exiting of the
secondary shortwave that night, warmer temperatures and less cloudy
skies will prevail in the days afterwards.
Tuesday on into the next weekend...will be dominated by dry weather
and nice temperatures. With the secondary shortwave exiting the
region Monday night into Tuesday the region will quickly get
dominated by a large amplitude ridge sandwiched between two large
cutoff circulations; one over the east coast with the other over the
Great Basin. Temperatures under the ridge will warm into the 70s
with lows in the 50s. Otherwise, given the pattern set up later in
the work week, expect that sometime late in the weekend --but more
likely early next work week-- the Great Basin trough will start
ejecting through the Plains and likely result in our next widespread
chance for storms in the region.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Drier air slowly working into the region early this morning which is
resulting in a categorical increase back to VFR at most forecast
locations. For now...have decided to play the optimistic card and
currently have a mostly VFR fcst through roughly 14z at all
locations. After this time...daytime heating and the arrival of the
next weather system will result in a brief period if MVFR cigs before
improving by the 18z time frame. As this feature arrives...a brief
shwr or two will be possible at all locations with activity likely
coming to an end by 00z. Winds to remain from the northwest between
5-10 kts.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
We have increased PoPs into the 30-40% range for the late evening
and overnight period generally along and just north of the I-44
corridor. A mid-level frontogenetic zone (centered around 750 mb)
will be the primary focus for the shower activity. Amounts will be
very light...generally less than 0.05".
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
An upper level ridge will build east across the plains during the
middle of the week then over the region late in the week into
early next weekend. This will allow a warming trend to occur as
highs return to the lower 70s on Wednesday, with temperatures
warming into the upper 70s to the lower 80s by Saturday.
An upper level low will then track east across the southwestern
U.S then into the plains late this weekend into early next week.
As this system approaches from the west, thunderstorm chances
will return to the area late next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
A weak upper level storm system will produce a few light rain
showers across southern Missouri overnight. Ceilings will also
lower into the MVFR category by late tonight. There is still a
signal for a brief period of IFR ceilings just after
sunrise...especially around Springfield.
Ceilings will then improve from mid-morning onward on Monday.
However, MVFR will remain likely through at least early afternoon.
Winds will remain out of the northwest generally below 10 knots.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
We have increased PoPs into the 30-40% range for the late evening
and overnight period generally along and just north of the I-44
corridor. A mid-level frontogenetic zone (centered around 750 mb)
will be the primary focus for the shower activity. Amounts will be
very light...generally less than 0.05".
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
An upper level ridge will build east across the plains during the
middle of the week then over the region late in the week into
early next weekend. This will allow a warming trend to occur as
highs return to the lower 70s on Wednesday, with temperatures
warming into the upper 70s to the lower 80s by Saturday.
An upper level low will then track east across the southwestern
U.S then into the plains late this weekend into early next week.
As this system approaches from the west, thunderstorm chances
will return to the area late next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
A weak upper level storm system will produce a few light rain
showers across southern Missouri overnight. Ceilings will also
lower into the MVFR category by late tonight. There is still a
signal for a brief period of IFR ceilings just after
sunrise...especially around Springfield.
Ceilings will then improve from mid-morning onward on Monday.
However, MVFR will remain likely through at least early afternoon.
Winds will remain out of the northwest generally below 10 knots.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1124 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Clouds will continue to move southeast and will overspread the area
by mid evening as upper trough back over eastern Nebraska drops
southeast into Missouri and Illinois. Isolated afternoon showers
and thunderstorms should diminish by early this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Some isolated showers may begin to develop
toward morning underneath the upper trough over central and
northeast Missouri. Lows tonight will fall into the middle 40s to
around 50s.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
(Monday through Wednesday)
GFS/ECMWF are in relatively good agreement that upper trough will
move across the area tomorrow with relatively deep layer moisture.
Will carry chance PoPs for much of the area for this reason. Drier
air will begin to move into the area by Monday night, so will go
with mainly dry conditions. A second trough moves across the area
on Tuesday which begins the switchover in the upper pattern to
northwesterly flow. GFS/ECMWF are still showing a third upper
trough moving across the Great Lakes and the Midwest on Wednesday
that will bring an attendant cold front across Missouri and Illinois.
Models indicate that best low level moisture and forcing will
still limit rain chances to the eastern part of the CWA.
Monday still looks quite cool with clouds, showers, and cold air
advection. Tuesday will be slightly warmer with less clouds and
winds turning out of the west. Wednesday will see near steady
temperatures during the afternoon behind the front.
(Thursday through Sunday)
CONUS will be in highly amplified upper flow late week into next
weekend because of an omega block that will set up over North
America. It still looks like we will be dry through at least
Saturday as we will lie under northwesterly flow aloft and a large
surface high will be moving across Missouri and Illinois. By next
weekend, the GFS and ECMWF show the upper ridge moving over us and
the low level flow becoming southwesterly across the Midwest. This
may allow for some return of Gulf moisture into our area by late in
the weekend. Have added a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday as both
the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a frontal boundary moving back into
the area. This will also cause temperatures to climb from below
normal on Thursday with 850mb temperatures around 5C to above normal
temperatures over the weekend with southwesterly surface flow and
850mb temperatures around 15C.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Surface low over southern IN will continue moving eastward
late tonight. Surface ridging extended from the Plains into
northwestern MO. MVFR cigs over northern portions of MO and IL
which were over UIN and have just moved into COU should continue
to slowly advect south-southeastward into the St Louis metro area
around 06-07Z Monday. These cigs will drop into the IFR catagory
by early Monday morning. There will also be light fog late
tonight and early Monday morning. The cloud ceiling will gradually
rise into the MVFR catagory late Monday morning, and possibly into
the VFR catagory by late Monday afternoon or early Monday evening.
A narrow band of light showers moving into southwest MO may move
into COU and the St Louis metro area early Monday morning. An
upper level disturbance will also bring widely scattered showers
to the area on Monday, especially during the afternoon. A
northwesterly surface wind will continue through the period.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs will move southeastward into STL
around 06Z Monday. The ceiling will drop into the IFR catagory
by early morning with light fog developing. The fog will
dissipate by late morning along with the cigs rising into the MVFR
catagory. The ceiling may rise into the VFR catagory by late
Monday afternoon or early Monday evening. There may be a few
showers on Monday. Nwly surface wind will continue through the
period, becoming light Monday evening.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
646 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 219 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
A little wet and cloudy along the Iowa border with comparatively
nice conditions farther south across east central Kansas into
central Missouri has been the prevailing pattern for today. However,
the upper level shortwave trough is sliding northeast out of Iowa
this afternoon has induced enough of a return flow on the backside
that low clouds and a few showers are now moving through northern
Missouri. Areas south of the Missouri River where able to bound in
the 60s, but cloud cover and northerly winds farther north have kept
conditions cooler and damper.
Rest of the afternoon through Monday...cool, cloud, and likely
damp,conditions will prevail. While the shortwave in Iowa is moving
away this afternoon, a follow on shortwave trough is expected to
quickly exit the Desert Southwest late tonight, ejecting along a
slightly more southern track than the leading shortwave moving
through Iowa. Ultimately, this should keep the lower clouds and
potential for scattered showers persisting across the region
overnight and through the day Monday as a result. Have tossed in
chance POPs for late Monday morning and the afternoon hours as the
shortwave trough ejects into and through the Southern and Central
Plains. This could make for a soupy day, with low clouds, drizzle
and scattered showers dominating. However, with the exiting of the
secondary shortwave that night, warmer temperatures and less cloudy
skies will prevail in the days afterwards.
Tuesday on into the next weekend...will be dominated by dry weather
and nice temperatures. With the secondary shortwave exiting the
region Monday night into Tuesday the region will quickly get
dominated by a large amplitude ridge sandwiched between two large
cutoff circulations; one over the east coast with the other over the
Great Basin. Temperatures under the ridge will warm into the 70s
with lows in the 50s. Otherwise, given the pattern set up later in
the work week, expect that sometime late in the weekend --but more
likely early next work week-- the Great Basin trough will start
ejecting through the Plains and likely result in our next widespread
chance for storms in the region.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
Should see MVFR stratus through most of the forecast period, with
some degradation toward IFR in a few hours. Expect a gradual
improvement through the morning hours on Monday, with VFR status
prevailing by the afternoon hours.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Leighton
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
639 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
...Update to Public and Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
We have increased PoPs into the 30-40% range for the late evening
and overnight period generally along and just north of the I-44
corridor. A mid-level frontogenetic zone (centered around 750 mb)
will be the primary focus for the shower activity. Amounts will be
very light...generally less than 0.05".
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
An upper level ridge will build east across the plains during the
middle of the week then over the region late in the week into
early next weekend. This will allow a warming trend to occur as
highs return to the lower 70s on Wednesday, with temperatures
warming into the upper 70s to the lower 80s by Saturday.
An upper level low will then track east across the southwestern
U.S then into the plains late this weekend into early next week.
As this system approaches from the west, thunderstorm chances
will return to the area late next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
A weak upper level storm system will bring lowering ceilings and a
few showers to the region overnight. Confidence is high that MVFR
ceilings will develop overnight with ceilings approaching IFR by
sunrise.
Confidence was then high enough to include prevailing IFR around
Springfield for a few hours. Confidence was slightly lower at
Joplin, so we include a mention of IFR in a TEMPO group. At this
point, confidence was too low at Branson to insert an IFR mention.
Ceilings will then slowly improve later Monday morning although
MVFR may hang on for much of the day.
Winds through Monday will remain out of the northwest generally
below 9 knots.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
559 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Clouds will continue to move southeast and will overspread the area
by mid evening as upper trough back over eastern Nebraska drops
southeast into Missouri and Illinois. Isolated afternoon showers
and thunderstorms should diminish by early this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Some isolated showers may begin to develop
toward morning underneath the upper trough over central and
northeast Missouri. Lows tonight will fall into the middle 40s to
around 50s.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
(Monday through Wednesday)
GFS/ECMWF are in relatively good agreement that upper trough will
move across the area tomorrow with relatively deep layer moisture.
Will carry chance PoPs for much of the area for this reason. Drier
air will begin to move into the area by Monday night, so will go
with mainly dry conditions. A second trough moves across the area
on Tuesday which begins the switchover in the upper pattern to
northwesterly flow. GFS/ECMWF are still showing a third upper
trough moving across the Great Lakes and the Midwest on Wednesday
that will bring an attendant cold front across Missouri and Illinois.
Models indicate that best low level moisture and forcing will
still limit rain chances to the eastern part of the CWA.
Monday still looks quite cool with clouds, showers, and cold air
advection. Tuesday will be slightly warmer with less clouds and
winds turning out of the west. Wednesday will see near steady
temperatures during the afternoon behind the front.
(Thursday through Sunday)
CONUS will be in highly amplified upper flow late week into next
weekend because of an omega block that will set up over North
America. It still looks like we will be dry through at least
Saturday as we will lie under northwesterly flow aloft and a large
surface high will be moving across Missouri and Illinois. By next
weekend, the GFS and ECMWF show the upper ridge moving over us and
the low level flow becoming southwesterly across the Midwest. This
may allow for some return of Gulf moisture into our area by late in
the weekend. Have added a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday as both
the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a frontal boundary moving back into
the area. This will also cause temperatures to climb from below
normal on Thursday with 850mb temperatures around 5C to above normal
temperatures over the weekend with southwesterly surface flow and
850mb temperatures around 15C.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 455 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Surface low over southeast IL will move eastward tonight. Any
showers/storms should be east of the taf sites this evening. MVFR
cigs in UIN should drop back down into the IFR catagory later this
evening. The low level cloud cover over northern MO will advect
south-southeastward into COU and the St Louis metro area later
this evening and overnight, leading to MVFR cigs initially, then
dropping into the IFR catagory late tonight/early Monday morning.
There will also be light fog late tonight and early Monday
morning. The cloud ceiling will gradually rise into the MVFR
catagory late Monday morning, and possibly into the VFR catagory
by late Monday afternoon. An upper level disturbance will bring
widely scattered showers to the area on Monday. W-nwly surface
wind will become more n-nwly on Monday.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs will move into STL late this
evening, then drop into the IFR catagory late tonight along with
light fog. The fog will dissipate by late morning along with the
cigs rising into the MVFR catagory. The ceiling may rise into the
VFR catagory by late Monday afternoon or early Monday evening.
There may be a few showers on Monday. Nwly surface wind will
continue through the period, weakening early this evening.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
559 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Clouds will continue to move southeast and will overspread the area
by mid evening as upper trough back over eastern Nebraska drops
southeast into Missouri and Illinois. Isolated afternoon showers
and thunderstorms should diminish by early this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Some isolated showers may begin to develop
toward morning underneath the upper trough over central and
northeast Missouri. Lows tonight will fall into the middle 40s to
around 50s.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
(Monday through Wednesday)
GFS/ECMWF are in relatively good agreement that upper trough will
move across the area tomorrow with relatively deep layer moisture.
Will carry chance PoPs for much of the area for this reason. Drier
air will begin to move into the area by Monday night, so will go
with mainly dry conditions. A second trough moves across the area
on Tuesday which begins the switchover in the upper pattern to
northwesterly flow. GFS/ECMWF are still showing a third upper
trough moving across the Great Lakes and the Midwest on Wednesday
that will bring an attendant cold front across Missouri and Illinois.
Models indicate that best low level moisture and forcing will
still limit rain chances to the eastern part of the CWA.
Monday still looks quite cool with clouds, showers, and cold air
advection. Tuesday will be slightly warmer with less clouds and
winds turning out of the west. Wednesday will see near steady
temperatures during the afternoon behind the front.
(Thursday through Sunday)
CONUS will be in highly amplified upper flow late week into next
weekend because of an omega block that will set up over North
America. It still looks like we will be dry through at least
Saturday as we will lie under northwesterly flow aloft and a large
surface high will be moving across Missouri and Illinois. By next
weekend, the GFS and ECMWF show the upper ridge moving over us and
the low level flow becoming southwesterly across the Midwest. This
may allow for some return of Gulf moisture into our area by late in
the weekend. Have added a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday as both
the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a frontal boundary moving back into
the area. This will also cause temperatures to climb from below
normal on Thursday with 850mb temperatures around 5C to above normal
temperatures over the weekend with southwesterly surface flow and
850mb temperatures around 15C.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 455 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Surface low over southeast IL will move eastward tonight. Any
showers/storms should be east of the taf sites this evening. MVFR
cigs in UIN should drop back down into the IFR catagory later this
evening. The low level cloud cover over northern MO will advect
south-southeastward into COU and the St Louis metro area later
this evening and overnight, leading to MVFR cigs initially, then
dropping into the IFR catagory late tonight/early Monday morning.
There will also be light fog late tonight and early Monday
morning. The cloud ceiling will gradually rise into the MVFR
catagory late Monday morning, and possibly into the VFR catagory
by late Monday afternoon. An upper level disturbance will bring
widely scattered showers to the area on Monday. W-nwly surface
wind will become more n-nwly on Monday.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs will move into STL late this
evening, then drop into the IFR catagory late tonight along with
light fog. The fog will dissipate by late morning along with the
cigs rising into the MVFR catagory. The ceiling may rise into the
VFR catagory by late Monday afternoon or early Monday evening.
There may be a few showers on Monday. Nwly surface wind will
continue through the period, weakening early this evening.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
325 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Clouds will continue to move southeast and will overspread the area
by mid evening as upper trough back over eastern Nebraska drops
southeast into Missouri and Illinois. Isolated afternoon showers
and thunderstorms should diminish by early this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Some isolated showers may begin to develop
toward morning underneath the upper trough over central and
northeast Missouri. Lows tonight will fall into the middle 40s to
around 50s.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
(Monday through Wednesday)
GFS/ECMWF are in relatively good agreement that upper trough will
move across the area tomorrow with relatively deep layer moisture.
Will carry chance PoPs for much of the area for this reason. Drier
air will begin to move into the area by Monday night, so will go
with mainly dry conditions. A second trough moves across the area
on Tuesday which begins the switchover in the upper pattern to
northwesterly flow. GFS/ECMWF are still showing a third upper
trough moving across the Great Lakes and the Midwest on Wednesday
that will bring an attendant cold front across Missouri and Illinois.
Models indicate that best low level moisture and forcing will
still limit rain chances to the eastern part of the CWA.
Monday still looks quite cool with clouds, showers, and cold air
advection. Tuesday will be slightly warmer with less clouds and
winds turning out of the west. Wednesday will see near steady
temperatures during the afternoon behind the front.
(Thursday through Sunday)
CONUS will be in highly amplified upper flow late week into next
weekend because of an omega block that will set up over North
America. It still looks like we will be dry through at least
Saturday as we will lie under northwesterly flow aloft and a large
surface high will be moving across Missouri and Illinois. By next
weekend, the GFS and ECMWF show the upper ridge moving over us and
the low level flow becoming southwesterly across the Midwest. This
may allow for some return of Gulf moisture into our area by late in
the weekend. Have added a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday as both
the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a frontal boundary moving back into
the area. This will also cause temperatures to climb from below
normal on Thursday with 850mb temperatures around 5C to above normal
temperatures over the weekend with southwesterly surface flow and
850mb temperatures around 15C.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Specifics for KCOU: KCOU is far enough west that VFR conditions
should prevail for the first 0-6 hours of the valid TAF pd.
Thereafter, MVFR cigs are expected for most of the night. Ceilings
may fall to IFR late tonight, but confidence was too low to
include in the TAF attm.
Specifics for KUIN: IFR conditions are expected for at least the
next few hours. Minor improvement is possible during the late
afternoon, but cigs should fall back to IFR this evening.
Scattered rain showers are possible after 20z.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: IFR and MVFR cigs extended farther
south late this morning than the models had previously predicted,
and IFR/MVFR cigs are expected to remain in place through the
afternoon based on upstream satellite imagery and METARs. Cigs
are expected to fall to IFR again tonight, likely after 06z based
on RAP and local WRF soundings in BUFKIT. Light fog is also
possible overnight. Rain showers are possible after 12z, but the
St. Louis metro area should be on the northern fringe of the rain
shield.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
636 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
GIVEN THAT THE MAJORITY OF WEATHER "CONCERNS" (MAINLY JUST PESKY
LIGHT RAIN IN THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE FOG
IN THE NORTHWEST) WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS SHOULD BE
A PRETTY QUIET TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD DOMINATED BY DRY
WEATHER/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A CONTINUED CLIMB IN HIGH TEMPS...AND
FAIRLY LIGHT BREEZES. PER LONG TERM EARLY-MAY HIGH TEMP
AVERAGES...TODAY SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO "NORMAL" FOR THE DATE.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 08Z/3AM:
THE NIGHT IS GENERALLY PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED 12-24 HOURS
AGO...WITH MOST OF THE CWA REMAINING DRY WHILE AN AREA OF STEADY
LIGHT RAIN HAS THUS FAR REMAINED MAINLY TO OUR WEST...BUT STILL
BRUSHING INTO A FEW OF OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES NAMELY
DAWSON/GOSPER/FURNAS. HOWEVER...EVEN WELL EAST OF THIS MAIN LIGHT
RAIN BAND...A FEW ROGUE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SPRUNG UP AS FAR EAST
AS JEWELL/MITCHELL COUNTIES. SKY COVER AT THIS HOUR IS SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE OVER THE CWA...BUT GENERALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF IS
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNDER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WHILE THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS VARIABILITY IN SKY COVER IS RESULTING
IN TRICKY HOURLY TEMP TRENDS...AS SOME CLEARER AREAS HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED TO NEAR 40...WHILE CLOUDY AREAS ARE MAINLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 40S. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY INDICATE OUR CURRENT RAIN-MAKER
IN THE FORM A WEST-EAST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
DROPPING DUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE JUST TO OUR WEST...A VERY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...PROMINENT FEATURES ARE HARD TO COME BY...AS BREEZES
ACROSS THE CWA ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AT SPEEDS
MAINLY AT/BELOW 7 MPH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS OF A SUBTLE
SURFACE TROUGH STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST WISE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
EARLY THIS MORNING (ROUGHLY THROUGH SUNRISE):
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...MOST OF THE EXPECTED "WEATHER" DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TAKES PLACE DURING THESE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO. ANY
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS SOUTHWEST OF
AN ELWOOD-BELOIT LINE...ALTHOUGH HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE JUST IN CASE
MODELS SUCH AS THE LATEST HRRR ARE CORRECT IN MAYBE BRINGING A FEW
ROGUE LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE VICINITY OF KEARNEY/MINDEN/RED CLOUD.
AS FOR RAIN AMOUNTS...THE VAST MAJORITY OF PLACES AFFECTED BY THIS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOULD ONLY SEE AROUND 0.05" OR LESS.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SINKS SOUTH...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY START
CLEARING FROM NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY-
CONCERNED ABOUT FOG POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO INSERT A
GENERIC "PATCHY FOG" MENTION INTO THE FAR WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST
CWA FOR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...GENERALLY NORTHWEST
OF A GREELEY-COZAD LINE...PER THE SUGGESTION OF MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR/RAP13. GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SURFACE TEMP-
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES AT THIS POINT. AS FOR
LOW TEMPS...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
39-42 RANGE...AND THUS REMAIN "SAFE" FROM FROST CONCERNS.
DAYTIME HOURS (AFTER 7 AM):
BY THIS TIME THE VAST MAJORITY OF LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE OVER WITH. HOWEVER...WITH A LITTLE MID LEVEL
FORCING/SATURATION STILL LINGERING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWARD-DIVING DISTURBANCE FINALLY
DEPARTS...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES MAINLY IN THE 7-9 AM
TIME FRAME MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED A BRIEF MORNING SPRINKLE MENTION TO COVER THIS. ALSO AS
COVERED IN THE PRECEDING EARLY-MORNING SECTION...WILL LINGER SOME
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH AROUND 9 AM IN A FEW FAR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...BY AND LARGE...THIS SHOULD BE A PRETTY DARN
PLEASANT AND DRY DAY OVERALL. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STEADILY DEPART INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
/MID-SOUTH BY DAY`S END...ALLOWING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO RISE AS
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BECOMES OUR MORE DOMINANT INFLUENCE.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES THIS
MORNING SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. EVEN SO...SUSTAINED
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 10-15
MPH...GENERALLY STRONGEST WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS
FOR SKY COVER...EXPECT THINGS TO MAINLY AVERAGE "MOSTLY SUNNY"
ONCE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT TO THE SOUTH...BUT COULD FORESEE AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF "PARTLY CLOUDY" DUE TO A COMBO OF POSSIBLE
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND/OR A BATCH
OF THIN HIGH CIRRUS SPILLING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. TEMP-
WISE...GIVEN THE FAIRLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS/RESULTANT LIMITED MIXING
AND ALSO SOME POSSIBLE EFFECT OF LINGERING MOIST GROUND...OPTED TO
PLAY A TOUCH CONSERVATIVE AND ACTUALLY NUDGED DOWN HIGHS 1-2
DEGREES MOST AREAS. EVEN SO...HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA INTO
THE 67-70 RANGE...WHICH WILL MARK THE MILDEST DAY IN A WEEK.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
BY THIS TIME THE ENTIRE CWA IS FIRMLY PLANTED UNDER THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE WESTERN RIDGE. MEANWHILE...OFF TO
OUR EAST/NORTHEAST...A WAVE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST STATES COULD SPARK AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT
COULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN IA...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
ALMOST CERTAINLY REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED
THE GOING DRY FORECAST. IN FACT...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE
CLEAR...WITH FEW IF ANY ROGUE PASSING CLOUDS. AT THE
SURFACE...COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A GREAT LAKES LOW/TROUGH AND A RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED TO OUR WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD PROMOTE A LIGHT-BUT-STEADY
WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH EVEN
HINTS OF A WEAK "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT EDGING INTO MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA LATE IN THE NIGHT. DESPITE THIS SOMEWHAT STEADIER
LIGHT BREEZE...THINK THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROBABLY HAVE MORE OF AN
EFFECT ON ENHANCING COOLING POTENTIAL. AIMED LOW TEMPS TOWARD THE
COLDER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BOTTOMING OUT MOST OF THE CWA IN THE 41-44 RANGE. THAT
BEING SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS
SNEAK A FEW DEGREES BELOW THIS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
OVERVIEW...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL VERY SLOWLY SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO OUR FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL WILL SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS HIGHS CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 70S ON
WEDNESDAY...TO THE UPPER 70S FOR THURSDAY...AND THE LOWER 80S BY
FRIDAY. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT...BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND OUR
PAST FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE TOO
FAR WEST FOR US TO SEE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN UNTIL SATURDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. OUR RAIN CHANCES GO UP SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
VORT MAX ROTATES NORTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AROUND THE LARGER
UPPER LOW. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...BUT GIVEN SHEAR AND WIND PROFILES CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. FOR THAT MATTER...CAN NOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY EITHER...AND WE
WILL ACTUALLY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS IN THAT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS
FAR OUT...CONFIDENCE IN STILL VERY LOW IN THE MESOSCALE FEATURES AND
HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...CLIMATOLOGICALLY GIVEN THE BIG UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST AND
THE TIME OF YEAR...IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS
UPPER SYSTEM EVOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL...GIVE OR TAKE A FEW DEGREES OF 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ONLY A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUD
COVER AND ALMOST ZERO CHANCE OF RAIN. FURTHERMORE...SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS
AVERAGING UNDER 12KT ALMOST THE ENTIRE TIME AND EVEN UNDER 6KT
THROUGH MOST OF THESE FIRST 6 HOURS. THE OVERALL "STRONGEST"
BREEZES WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...AVERAGING AROUND 11KT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 06Z...THERE COULD BE A
FEW HOURS OF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS)...BUT THIS
CURRENTLY DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO BE TAF-WORTHY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
849 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE
TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER IN A FEW OF OUR ZONES THIS MORNING AND TO
INCREASE POPS AN ADDITIONAL 5-10 PCT FOR AREAS NEAR THE CASCADE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN HAS
SET UP FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE U.S. AN ELONGATED
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD...AND THE UPPER FLOW HAS
BACKED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADE RANGE AND AS FAR EAST
AS BICKLETON...CONDON AND PAULINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR LOOKS
REASONABLE SHOWING SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND 1400 AND INCREASING
IN COVERAGE BY 1800. SURFACE-BASED CAPES ARE AROUND 300 J/KG AND
LI`S BETWEEN 0 TO -2...SO THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE BULK WIND SHEAR IS MINIMAL TODAY...SO
HAVING A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT LIKELY
TO HAPPEN.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE YAKIMA
VALLEY. WISTER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
SHORT TERM...AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COOLER AIR WILL
INTRUDE. STILL...THERE WILL BE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SPUN UP
OVER THE AREA FOR ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS WELL AS
INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVEN CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THERE MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH
MODERATE 500-300MB LAPSE RATES. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS BUT FOR
NOW JUST CONTINUING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BY THURSDAY THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS. 500MB DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COULD ALSO AID IN
AIR ACCELERATING UPWARD. SO FOR THIS AREA...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
BY A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEY WILL STILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEBER
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE FROM CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THURSDAY EVENING
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. JUST THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A SHOWER OR STORM ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK DRY AS NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF WINDY PERIODS. THE FIRST WILL BE
FRIDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY N-NELY WINDS AND THE SECOND SUNDAY EVENING
IN THE CASCADE GAPS WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING PEAKING SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S COLUMBIA BASIN
THEN COOLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO MID 70S TO LOWER 80S LOWER
ELEVATIONS. 78
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME MID CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS NEAR KRDM...KBDN...
KDLS...AND KYKM AFTER 21Z WITH A FEW SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. FOR
THIS SET OF TAFS DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING IN TSRA. WILL LET THE
POTENTIAL BE FINE TUNED IN LATER FORECASTS. WINDS WILL BE 5-15KT AND
A LITTLE GUSTY AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 78
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 86 51 77 51 / 0 10 20 50
ALW 86 54 80 53 / 0 10 20 50
PSC 87 55 82 56 / 0 10 20 40
YKM 84 54 81 51 / 10 30 30 30
HRI 86 54 79 53 / 0 10 20 40
ELN 82 52 78 49 / 10 30 30 40
RDM 75 45 69 43 / 30 50 60 60
LGD 80 47 79 48 / 0 10 30 40
GCD 79 46 77 47 / 10 10 50 60
DLS 82 55 76 52 / 20 40 30 40
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
85/76
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
630 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. WITH LIMITED CAPE...VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION
WAS FOUND ALONG THIS COLD FRONT. THE MESO MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE THEN LOCATED NEAR
INTERSTATE 90 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BE EXITING NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING. WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 40S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE
0-1 KM MEAN LAYER CAPES REMAIN CLOSE TO 500 J/KG. LIKE THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...MUCH OF THE SHEAR REMAINS IN THE 0-3 KM RANGE AND
THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
PRIMARILY LINEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN
INVERTED V IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER...THERE WILL GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THERE WILL BE DEEP DIURNAL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. THE RAP /WHICH SOMETIME HAS ISSUES WITH MIXING TOO DEEP/
HAS THE WIND GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND NAM...ONLY
HAVE THE WIND GUSTS REACHING 35 MPH IN THESE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 03.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED
FROST.
ON FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND DEEP MIXING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S. THIS WAS 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL BLEND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS DAY. HOWEVER THEY DID FIT IN WELL WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS
AND ECMWF GRIDS.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SURFACE AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ARE ONLY IN THE THE
500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH BOTH
THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KNOTS...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO DEVELOP.
FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE 03.00Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
TREND DRY. THE GFS AND GEM EVEN KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE PRECIPITATION RETURNING ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW TREND...STAYED WITH WITH
CONSOLIDATED MODEL GRIDS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING TO GIVE WAY TO SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CUMULUS...BECOMING BROKEN FOR A SHORT TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS TAF AIRFIELDS. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES MENTION IN 12Z TAFS. EITHER WAY...ANY
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 3000 FT AGL. IN ADDITION...NOT
EXPECTING ANY REDUCTION IS VISIBILITY BELOW 6SM WITH SHOWERS.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING AT TIMES INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20 KT RANGE. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS AT
KRST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SHOWERS...BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. THE LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE THERE
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...THE RAIN
WILL LIKELY NOT BE WIDESPREAD. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.25 INCH. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE WIND WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AND WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 10 MPH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
638 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE SITUATED
UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN ONTARIO
CANADA. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...A MOIST S-SW FLOW HAS BEEN IN
PLACE...KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS LOCATED OVER OUR AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LOCATED MAINLY EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THIS MOISTURE PLUME AND NEARBY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION ESPECIALLY FROM
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION AND THE GREAT CAPITAL DISTRICT. THESE SHOWERS WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND...WOULD EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS CLOSE BY AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES START TO HEAD EASTWARD...THE 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS TONIGHT...ESP
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR LATER. ANY RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP AROUND...TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE HELD INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW UPPER 30S ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME A CUTOFF LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD...AND THE NEARBY STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A PIECE OF VORTICITY SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SKY
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY OVERCAST ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO THE E-SE FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...AND DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF UNSETTLED AS THE FA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE A
FORECAST OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS RUNNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AT
WHICH TIME THE COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FA WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S.
DRY WEATHER IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.
OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU
AND KPSF. HOWEVER...EVEN KALB AND KGFL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...SO ALL AREAS WILL INDICATE VCSH THROUGH THE
PERIOD SINCE ANY SPECIFIC BRIEF DRY PERIODS BETWEEN AREAS OF
SHOWERS TOUGH TO TIME.
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE JUST SCATTERED AT BEST...SO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT JUST SOME BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN ANY SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MAINLY...WITH SOME PERIODS OF JUST INTO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AT KALB BEFORE CEILINGS LOWER THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERY
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS VERY PERSISTENT.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY CLOUDY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY...ALONG PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RH
VALUES WON/T FALL BELOW 55 PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY.
TOTAL QPF OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE AROUND A HALF INCH...WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOT OVERLY STEADY...AND VEGETATION IN THE PROCESS OF
GREENING UP...THIS RAINFALL WON/T HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS. RIVER LEVELS WILL MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR ONLY SHOW
SOME VERY MINOR RISES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
400 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARE SITUATED
UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN ONTARIO
CANADA. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...A MOIST S-SW FLOW HAS BEEN IN
PLACE...KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS LOCATED OVER OUR AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LOCATED MAINLY EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THIS MOISTURE PLUME AND NEARBY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE REGION.
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE BULK OF THE REGION. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND...WOULD EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS CLOSE BY AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES START TO HEAD EASTWARD...THE 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS TONIGHT...ESP
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR LATER. ANY RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP AROUND...TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE HELD INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW UPPER 30S ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME A CUTOFF LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD...AND THE NEARBY STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A PIECE OF VORTICITY SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SKY
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY OVERCAST ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO THE E-SE FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...AND DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF UNSETTLED AS THE FA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE A
FORECAST OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS RUNNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AT
WHICH TIME THE COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FA WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S.
DRY WEATHER IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.
OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU
AND KPSF. HOWEVER...EVEN KALB AND KGFL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...SO ALL AREAS WILL INDICATE VCSH THROUGH THE
PERIOD SINCE ANY SPECIFIC BRIEF DRY PERIODS BETWEEN AREAS OF
SHOWERS TOUGH TO TIME.
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE JUST SCATTERED AT BEST...SO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT JUST SOME BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN ANY SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MAINLY...WITH SOME PERIODS OF JUST INTO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AT KALB BEFORE CEILINGS LOWER THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERY
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS VERY PERSISTENT.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY CLOUDY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY...ALONG PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RH
VALUES WON/T FALL BELOW 55 PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY.
TOTAL QPF OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE AROUND A HALF INCH...WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOT OVERLY STEADY...AND VEGETATION IN THE PROCESS OF
GREENING UP...THIS RAINFALL WON/T HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS. RIVER LEVELS WILL MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR ONLY SHOW
SOME VERY MINOR RISES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
SITUATED SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD OF NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND. WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NOW HEADING OUT TO SEA...STEADY
RAINFALL HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. MEANWHILE...IT REMAINS
NEARLY FULLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE ONLY
LOCATION WHERE SOME BREAKS ARE OCCURRING ARE ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN OVERCAST. THE OVERCAST MAY BRIEFLY THIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT SKY COVER WILL REMAIN TO BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST A FEW MORE BRIEF
PASSING RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT IN BOTH INTENSITY AND QPF...WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.
WITH THE CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...WITH SOME HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS STUCK IN THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
UPSTREAM WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND WEST BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.
WEDNESDAY...THE GRAY...COOL...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW WILL PIVOT INTO
UPSTATE NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER BOUT OF SHOWERS...INITIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...BUT THEN PUSHING EASTWARD. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE
USED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND U50S
WITH SOME COOLER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...THE CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS S/SE INTO THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE SHOWERS WED
NIGHT SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME...BUT THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION AROUND THE CUTOFF SHOULD FOCUS DIURNALLY TRIGGER ISOLD-
SCT SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THERE IS A CHC LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND
IN THE VALLEYS MAY STAY DRY DEPENDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE H500
CUTOFF IS SITUATED. THE ECMWF FAVORS THIS SCENARIO. THE CUTOFF
DOES SHIFT CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WHICH MAY INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW TO
CLOSE THE WEEK. TEMPS STILL LOOK SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO L60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WITH A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW
FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM WILL GET DURING THE DAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND POPS DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF CUT-OFF LOWS THIS FAR OUT. THERE
IS AT LEAST ENOUGH EVIDENCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO GIVE
MUCH OF OUR REGION AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME
STEADIER RAIN DURING THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME. SO
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
SOME IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY...AS MODEL TRENDS SHOWING
THE CUT-OFF WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY BEING KICKED OUT BY A DIGGING
UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVERHEAD...AS FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SATURDAY BUT
MAINLY WILL BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MILDER WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD REACH 70 DEGREES BY LATE SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
RATHER PROGRESSIVE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM...BUT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING DUE TO DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING IT WILL BE BREEZY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH AS WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU
AND KPSF. HOWEVER...EVEN KALB AND KGFL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...SO ALL AREAS WILL INDICATE VCSH THROUGH THE
PERIOD SINCE ANY SPECIFIC BRIEF DRY PERIODS BETWEEN AREAS OF SHOWERS
TOUGH TO TIME.
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE JUST SCATTERED AT BEST...SO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT JUST SOME BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN ANY SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MAINLY...WITH SOME PERIODS OF JUST INTO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AT KALB BEFORE CEILINGS LOWER THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERY
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS VERY PERSISTENT.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE BERKSHIRES.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE COOL AND DAMP AIR MASS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THE NEXT 5
DAYS ENDING ON SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR INTO NW CT. MINIMAL RISES ARE
EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH EACH DAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
304 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PARENT SHORT WAVE WAS JUST DROPPING
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES WITH DEEP FORCING AND COLD FRONT ALOFT
AIDING LIFT...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOTED ALONG COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MN AT 19Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED...KEEPING INSTABILITY VERY LOW AND THUNDER POTENTIAL
DOWN...HOWEVER EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY A BIT AS IT
BECOMES HIGH BASED BUT SURFACE ROOTED INTO THE EVENING. SOUNDINGS
DEPICT BASES AROUND 6KFT WITH FULL MIXING UNDERNEATH SO THERE MAY BE
SOME SUB SEVERE WIND GUSTS ABOVE AMBIENT LEVELS FROM TIME TO TIME.
THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR BOTH SHOW IT INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY AS IT
REACHES ERN IA...INCLUDING OUR ERN FORECAST AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXIT OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPS AS WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW.
.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
MAIN CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND A FEW
MINOR IMPULSES GRAZING THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. BEYOND THAT THE
FOCUS SHIFTS TO LONG WAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN UP AND BECOME THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT WAVE NOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
TRAILING COOL FRONT OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z TOMORROW. IN ITS WAKE
H850 TEMPERATURES COOL TO 0C TO 4C NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BY 12Z.
BREEZY WIND WITH 15 TO 25 MPH NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. DESPITE
SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT...OVERALL HIGHS WILL BE SOME 5
TO 7 DEGREES COOLER OVER MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF I35 WHILE WEST
OF I35...TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER CLOSER TO TODAYS LEVELS INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH JUST
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW LIGHT WINDS
TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER A GOOD SHARE OF THE REGION...
EVEN THOUGH GFS HINTS AT SOME RETURN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVER THE FAR NORTH SOME 30S WILL BE LIKELY. BY THURSDAY
SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE WINNIPEG MOVES EAST ALLOWING FOR STRONGER
WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BE DRAWN INTO THE PLAINS. WITH LITTLE RETURN
OF MOISTURE...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ALREADY IN THE 60S/70S AND IN THE 70S/80S ON FRIDAY.
MIXING IS MUCH BETTER ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COOL FRONT
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON INSTABILITY
INCREASING OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOWERS WILL DEPART NORTHERN IA BUT CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH TWO THIRDS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FORECAST INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY
BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH DECENT HAIL CAPE AT THIS TIME...EURO BULK
SHEAR/MUCAPE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WILL MONITOR FOR
TRENDS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE...THE BOUNDARY SLIPS INTO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER STORM BEGINS
TO GATHER IN THE WESTERN PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO THE H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EAST BY THAT TIME. THOUGH
SOLUTIONS DIFFER BETWEEN THE EURO/GFS...MAINLY STANDARD BIASES...
OF TIMING...BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A STRENGTHENING AND MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EVENTUALLY DEEPENS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE PHASING
WITH THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINFALL...WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A CURSORY LOOK AT WIND FIELDS AND
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/PLACEMENT REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
REMAIN MILD...60S AND 70S WILL BE COMMON FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND 50S.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
PRIMARY CONCERN WOULD BE POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...STILL ACROSS NRN MN AT 18Z. THIS
SHOULD REACH IA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING ERN
SITES /KMCW/KALO/KOTM/ WITH PRECIP 00Z-07Z. THIS CONVECTION WOULD
BE HIGH BASED HOWEVER AND ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE BRIEF SO
HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO THUNDER DEPICTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD UNTIL TRENDS IN THIS WINDOW BECOME MORE CLEAR.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
418 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE RODCKIES NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN CANADA RESULTING IN
NNW FLOW FROM MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALEY AND WRN LAKES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NW LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LOW PRES JUST
WEST OF JAMES BAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ASSOCIATED 800-600 MB FGEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF UPPER MI. SOME ISOLD
TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR CYQT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS STRONGEST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FGEN AREA SLIDES TO THE SE AND THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. SOME ISOLD TSRA WILL ALSO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT. CAA WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS.
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LATE TONIGHT WHERE NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IS STRONGEST OVER THE N CNTRL UPPER MI. AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROP AFTER 06Z...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. WITH LOWS
ONLY TO AROUND 34...ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
GRASSY SURFACES.
WEDNESDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO IN/OH
KEEPING COLD NRLY FLOW GOING INTO UPPER MI. EXPECT ENOUGH DEEP
MOISTURE TO LINGER WITH SATURATION NEAR -8C TO -10C LAYER TO
MINIMIZE DZ CHANCES. SO...UPSLOPE SOME SN/RA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI IN THE MORNING WITH POTENTIAL TO TRANSITION TO
SOME DZ BY AFTERNOON AS THE 850-600 MOISTURE DEPARTS. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO 50
SOUTH EVEN AS SUNSHINE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY GIVES WAY TO RISING
HEIGHTS THU INTO FRI AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST. SFC
HIGH MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH DRY WEATHER. BLO FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY OVER INTERIOR WEST BENEATH RIDGE AXIS ON WED NIGHT.
ONCE THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST...WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES
WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AWAY FM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH READINGS INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT
WINDS LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING AND H85 TEMPS 14-
16C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
DESPITE THE WARMTH...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS SFC-
H85 DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE SO MIN RH SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THU
AND LIKE THU THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRASHES THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED
WITH THE FROPA. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF TSRA WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /H7-H5 LAPSE RATES CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE
AT 6.5C/KM AND MUCAPE UP TO 250 J/KG/...BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DO NOT EXPECT
STRONG TSRA. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BUT
MOSTLY DRY. GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20
MPH INLAND. IF WATER TEMPS WERE WARMER ON LK SUPERIOR SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED SWIM RISK. CURRENT WATER TEMPS AROUND 40 IN
THE NEARSHORE SO NOT AN ISSUE QUITE YET.
WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF EXTENDED /DAYTIME HIGHS 60S AND MAYBE
SLIGHTLY WARMER/ AS UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER GREAT LAKES.
DIFFERENCES ARISE MON INTO TUE ON HOW QUICK UPPER TROUGH BRINGS SFC
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS QUICKEST WHILE GEM
IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE.
REGARDLESS...WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TOO HIGH IMPACT AS EVEN WITH
GFS IDEA BULK OF HIGHER INSTABILITY BOTH SFC AND ELEVATED REMAINS
TOO FAR SW TO BRING ANY STRONGER TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS UPR MICHIGAN.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TUE SHOWS MORE CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ATTM...BUT IF THE SLOWER IDEA WORKS OUT...DRY WEATHER WOULD HOLD
UNTIL LATE TUE AND TUE WOULD BECOME MORE OF A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE
WITH TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND
MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KSAW WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AFTERNOON. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
RESTRIC VSBY. KCMX AND KIWD WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS LIKELY THERE. IN
FACT...THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT KIWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS
OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
416 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE RODCKIES NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN CANADA RESULTING IN
NNW FLOW FROM MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALEY AND WRN LAKES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NW LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LOW PRES JUST
WEST OF JAMES BAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ASSOCIATED 800-600 MB FGEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF UPPER MI. SOME ISOLD
TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR CYQT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS STRONGEST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FGEN AREA SLIDES TO THE SE AND THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. SOME ISOLD TSRA WILL ALSO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT. CAA WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS.
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LATE TONIGHT WHERE NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IS STRONGEST OVER THE N CNTRL UPPER MI. AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROP AFTER 06Z...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. WITH LOWS
ONLY TO AROUND 34...ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
GRASSY SURFACES.
WEDNESDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO IN/OH
KEEPING COLD NRLY FLOW GOING INTO UPPER MI. EXPECT ENOUGH DEEP
MOISTURE TO LINGER WITH SATURATION NEAR -8C TO -10C LAYER TO
MINIMIZE DZ CHANCES. SO...UPSLOPE SOME SN/RA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI IN THE MORNING WITH POTENTIAL TO TRANSITION TO
SOME DZ BY AFTERNOON AS THE 850-600 MOISTURE DEPARTS. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO 50
SOUTH EVEN AS SUNSHINE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY GIVES WAY TO RISING
HEIGHTS THU INTO FRI AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST. SFC
HIGH MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH DRY WEATHER. BLO FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY OVER INTERIOR WEST BENEATH RIDGE AXIS ON WED NIGHT.
ONCE THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST...WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES
WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AWAY FM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH READINGS INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT
WINDS LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING AND H85 TEMPS 14-
16C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
DESPITE THE WARMTH...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS SFC-
H85 DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE SO MIN RH SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THU
AND LIKE THU THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRASHES THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED
WITH THE FROPA. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF TSRA WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /H7-H5 LAPSE RATES CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE
AT 6.5C/KM AND MUCAPE UP TO 250 J/KG/...BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DO NOT EXPECT
STRONG TSRA. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BUT
MOSTLY DRY. GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20
MPH INLAND. IF WATER TEMPS WERE WARMER ON LK SUPERIOR SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED SWIM RISK. CURRENT WATER TEMPS AROUND 40 IN
THE NEARSHORE SO NOT AN ISSUE QUITE YET.
WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF EXTENDED /DAYTIME HIGHS 60S AND MAYBE
SLIGHTLY WARMER/ AS UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER GREAT LAKES.
DIFFERENCES ARISE MON INTO TUE ON HOW QUICK UPPER TROUGH BRINGS SFC
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS QUICKEST WHILE GEM
IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE.
REGARDLESS...WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TOO HIGH IMPACT AS EVEN WITH
GFS IDEA BULK OF HIGHER INSTABILITY BOTH SFC AND ELEVATED REMAINS
TOO FAR SW TO BRING ANY STRONGER TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS UPR MICHIGAN.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TUE SHOWS MORE CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ATTM...BUT IF THE SLOWER IDEA WORKS OUT...DRY WEATHER WOULD HOLD
UNTIL LATE TUE AND TUE WOULD BECOME MORE OF A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE
WITH TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND
MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KSAW WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AFTERNOON. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
RESTRIC VSBY. KCMX AND KIWD WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS LIKELY THERE. IN
FACT...THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT KIWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WSW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH
WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
330 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN
MANITOBA INTO THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NW
ONTARIO WILL BE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS
FCST IT TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGE HAS MOVED SE IN ADVANCE OF
TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO. SOME MID-LVL WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE SPILLED INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN
UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
TODAY...MODELS SHOW THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 250-300 MB
JET MAX NOSING INTO MN. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE 200-500 J/KG
RANGE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7C OR GREATER MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA...OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF
SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHRA MAKING IT
INTO THE CNTRL AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES
INTO THE 25-35 PCT RANGE COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS FOR
MAINLY THE WRN/CENTRAL INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH FACTORS ARE MARGINAL FOR
MEETING LOCAL CRITERIA DECIDED TO ISSUE A WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
STATEMENT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF ELEVATED WILDFIRE
CONCERNS/POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA AS FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY E OF THE
REGION. CAA WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS. COULD
SEE NORTH WINDS GUST 25-30 MPH OVERNIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FM
KEWEENAW EAST TO WHITEFISH POINT. LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
WITH ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT COULD ALSO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT -SHSN TO MIX IN WITH -SHRA/-DZ MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NCNTRL. EXPECT COVERAGE OF -SHRA TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
MID-LVL DRYING AS SHALLOW MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW -10C ISOTHERM WL
SUPPORT MORE -DZ.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY GIVES WAY TO RISING
HEIGHTS THU INTO FRI AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST. SFC
HIGH MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH DRY WEATHER. BLO FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY OVER INTERIOR WEST BENEATH RIDGE AXIS ON WED NIGHT.
ONCE THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST...WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES
WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AWAY FM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH READINGS INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT
WINDS LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING AND H85 TEMPS 14-
16C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
DESPITE THE WARMTH...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS SFC-
H85 DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE SO MIN RH SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THU
AND LIKE THU THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRASHES THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED
WITH THE FROPA. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF TSRA WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /H7-H5 LAPSE RATES CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE
AT 6.5C/KM AND MUCAPE UP TO 250 J/KG/...BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DO NOT EXPECT
STRONG TSRA. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BUT
MOSTLY DRY. GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20
MPH INLAND. IF WATER TEMPS WERE WARMER ON LK SUPERIOR SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED SWIM RISK. CURRENT WATER TEMPS AROUND 40 IN
THE NEARSHORE SO NOT AN ISSUE QUITE YET.
WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF EXTENDED /DAYTIME HIGHS 60S AND MAYBE
SLIGHTLY WARMER/ AS UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER GREAT LAKES.
DIFFERENCES ARISE MON INTO TUE ON HOW QUICK UPPER TROUGH BRINGS SFC
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS QUICKEST WHILE GEM
IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE.
REGARDLESS...WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TOO HIGH IMPACT AS EVEN WITH
GFS IDEA BULK OF HIGHER INSTABILITY BOTH SFC AND ELEVATED REMAINS
TOO FAR SW TO BRING ANY STRONGER TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS UPR MICHIGAN.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TUE SHOWS MORE CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ATTM...BUT IF THE SLOWER IDEA WORKS OUT...DRY WEATHER WOULD HOLD
UNTIL LATE TUE AND TUE WOULD BECOME MORE OF A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE
WITH TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND
MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KSAW WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AFTERNOON. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
RESTRIC VSBY. KCMX AND KIWD WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS LIKELY THERE. IN
FACT...THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT KIWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WSW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH
WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
256 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN
MANITOBA INTO THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NW
ONTARIO WILL BE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS
FCST IT TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGE HAS MOVED SE IN ADVANCE OF
TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO. SOME MID-LVL WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE SPILLED INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN
UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
TODAY...MODELS SHOW THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 250-300 MB
JET MAX NOSING INTO MN. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE 200-500 J/KG
RANGE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7C OR GREATER MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA...OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF
SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHRA MAKING IT
INTO THE CNTRL AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES
INTO THE 25-35 PCT RANGE COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS FOR
MAINLY THE WRN/CENTRAL INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH FACTORS ARE MARGINAL FOR
MEETING LOCAL CRITERIA DECIDED TO ISSUE A WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
STATEMENT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF ELEVATED WILDFIRE
CONCERNS/POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA AS FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY E OF THE
REGION. CAA WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS. COULD
SEE NORTH WINDS GUST 25-30 MPH OVERNIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FM
KEWEENAW EAST TO WHITEFISH POINT. LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
WITH ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT COULD ALSO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT -SHSN TO MIX IN WITH -SHRA/-DZ MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NCNTRL. EXPECT COVERAGE OF -SHRA TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
MID-LVL DRYING AS SHALLOW MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW -10C ISOTHERM WL
SUPPORT MORE -DZ.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WEDNESDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS PRECIP WILL
STALL OVER LOWER MI ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...UPSLOPE FLOW
WITH N TO NNW WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY COMPARED TO TODAY. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
INLAND...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC LOW ACROSS LOWER MI TO NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND A LAKE-INDUCED MESO-HIGH ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL RESULT IN N TO NNW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CENTRAL AND
EAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WAA PRECIP
ACROSS THE FAR WEST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD AS AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMS ACROSS THE
CONUS. WITH THE RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES...WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE TRENDED
UP WITH TEMPS FOR FRI GIVEN IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS AND H8 TEMPS
AROUND 15C FOR THE WEST. SHOULD SEE A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR
WEST HALF CRACK THE 80F MARK...WHILE TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE LOWER
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS FASTER TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
FRONT NOW CLEARING THE CWA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH A RESIDUAL EML FROM FRIDAY SUPPORT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME. SAT WILL BRING
COOLER CONDITIONS...BUT THE CHANGE WONT BE AS DRASTIC AS WILL BE THE
CASE BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS THEN MODERATE
MONDAY AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND
MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KSAW WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AFTERNOON. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
RESTRIC VSBY. KCMX AND KIWD WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS LIKELY THERE. IN
FACT...THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT KIWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WSW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH
WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1242 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
GIVEN THAT THE MAJORITY OF WEATHER "CONCERNS" (MAINLY JUST PESKY
LIGHT RAIN IN THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE FOG
IN THE NORTHWEST) WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS SHOULD BE
A PRETTY QUIET TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD DOMINATED BY DRY
WEATHER/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A CONTINUED CLIMB IN HIGH TEMPS...AND
FAIRLY LIGHT BREEZES. PER LONG TERM EARLY-MAY HIGH TEMP
AVERAGES...TODAY SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO "NORMAL" FOR THE DATE.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 08Z/3AM:
THE NIGHT IS GENERALLY PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED 12-24 HOURS
AGO...WITH MOST OF THE CWA REMAINING DRY WHILE AN AREA OF STEADY
LIGHT RAIN HAS THUS FAR REMAINED MAINLY TO OUR WEST...BUT STILL
BRUSHING INTO A FEW OF OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES NAMELY
DAWSON/GOSPER/FURNAS. HOWEVER...EVEN WELL EAST OF THIS MAIN LIGHT
RAIN BAND...A FEW ROGUE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SPRUNG UP AS FAR EAST
AS JEWELL/MITCHELL COUNTIES. SKY COVER AT THIS HOUR IS SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE OVER THE CWA...BUT GENERALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF IS
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNDER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WHILE THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS VARIABILITY IN SKY COVER IS RESULTING
IN TRICKY HOURLY TEMP TRENDS...AS SOME CLEARER AREAS HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED TO NEAR 40...WHILE CLOUDY AREAS ARE MAINLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 40S. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY INDICATE OUR CURRENT RAIN-MAKER
IN THE FORM A WEST-EAST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
DROPPING DUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE JUST TO OUR WEST...A VERY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...PROMINENT FEATURES ARE HARD TO COME BY...AS BREEZES
ACROSS THE CWA ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AT SPEEDS
MAINLY AT/BELOW 7 MPH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS OF A SUBTLE
SURFACE TROUGH STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST WISE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
EARLY THIS MORNING (ROUGHLY THROUGH SUNRISE):
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...MOST OF THE EXPECTED "WEATHER" DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TAKES PLACE DURING THESE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO. ANY
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS SOUTHWEST OF
AN ELWOOD-BELOIT LINE...ALTHOUGH HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE JUST IN CASE
MODELS SUCH AS THE LATEST HRRR ARE CORRECT IN MAYBE BRINGING A FEW
ROGUE LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE VICINITY OF KEARNEY/MINDEN/RED CLOUD.
AS FOR RAIN AMOUNTS...THE VAST MAJORITY OF PLACES AFFECTED BY THIS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOULD ONLY SEE AROUND 0.05" OR LESS.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SINKS SOUTH...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY START
CLEARING FROM NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY-
CONCERNED ABOUT FOG POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO INSERT A
GENERIC "PATCHY FOG" MENTION INTO THE FAR WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST
CWA FOR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...GENERALLY NORTHWEST
OF A GREELEY-COZAD LINE...PER THE SUGGESTION OF MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR/RAP13. GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SURFACE TEMP-
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES AT THIS POINT. AS FOR
LOW TEMPS...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
39-42 RANGE...AND THUS REMAIN "SAFE" FROM FROST CONCERNS.
DAYTIME HOURS (AFTER 7 AM):
BY THIS TIME THE VAST MAJORITY OF LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE OVER WITH. HOWEVER...WITH A LITTLE MID LEVEL
FORCING/SATURATION STILL LINGERING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWARD-DIVING DISTURBANCE FINALLY
DEPARTS...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES MAINLY IN THE 7-9 AM
TIME FRAME MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED A BRIEF MORNING SPRINKLE MENTION TO COVER THIS. ALSO AS
COVERED IN THE PRECEDING EARLY-MORNING SECTION...WILL LINGER SOME
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH AROUND 9 AM IN A FEW FAR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...BY AND LARGE...THIS SHOULD BE A PRETTY DARN
PLEASANT AND DRY DAY OVERALL. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STEADILY DEPART INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
/MID-SOUTH BY DAY`S END...ALLOWING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO RISE AS
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BECOMES OUR MORE DOMINANT INFLUENCE.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES THIS
MORNING SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. EVEN SO...SUSTAINED
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 10-15
MPH...GENERALLY STRONGEST WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS
FOR SKY COVER...EXPECT THINGS TO MAINLY AVERAGE "MOSTLY SUNNY"
ONCE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT TO THE SOUTH...BUT COULD FORESEE AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF "PARTLY CLOUDY" DUE TO A COMBO OF POSSIBLE
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND/OR A BATCH
OF THIN HIGH CIRRUS SPILLING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. TEMP-
WISE...GIVEN THE FAIRLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS/RESULTANT LIMITED MIXING
AND ALSO SOME POSSIBLE EFFECT OF LINGERING MOIST GROUND...OPTED TO
PLAY A TOUCH CONSERVATIVE AND ACTUALLY NUDGED DOWN HIGHS 1-2
DEGREES MOST AREAS. EVEN SO...HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA INTO
THE 67-70 RANGE...WHICH WILL MARK THE MILDEST DAY IN A WEEK.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
BY THIS TIME THE ENTIRE CWA IS FIRMLY PLANTED UNDER THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE WESTERN RIDGE. MEANWHILE...OFF TO
OUR EAST/NORTHEAST...A WAVE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST STATES COULD SPARK AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT
COULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN IA...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
ALMOST CERTAINLY REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED
THE GOING DRY FORECAST. IN FACT...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE
CLEAR...WITH FEW IF ANY ROGUE PASSING CLOUDS. AT THE
SURFACE...COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A GREAT LAKES LOW/TROUGH AND A RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED TO OUR WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD PROMOTE A LIGHT-BUT-STEADY
WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH EVEN
HINTS OF A WEAK "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT EDGING INTO MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA LATE IN THE NIGHT. DESPITE THIS SOMEWHAT STEADIER
LIGHT BREEZE...THINK THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROBABLY HAVE MORE OF AN
EFFECT ON ENHANCING COOLING POTENTIAL. AIMED LOW TEMPS TOWARD THE
COLDER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BOTTOMING OUT MOST OF THE CWA IN THE 41-44 RANGE. THAT
BEING SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS
SNEAK A FEW DEGREES BELOW THIS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
OVERVIEW...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL VERY SLOWLY SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO OUR FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL WILL SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS HIGHS CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 70S ON
WEDNESDAY...TO THE UPPER 70S FOR THURSDAY...AND THE LOWER 80S BY
FRIDAY. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT...BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND OUR
PAST FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE TOO
FAR WEST FOR US TO SEE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN UNTIL SATURDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. OUR RAIN CHANCES GO UP SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
VORT MAX ROTATES NORTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AROUND THE LARGER
UPPER LOW. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...BUT GIVEN SHEAR AND WIND PROFILES CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. FOR THAT MATTER...CAN NOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY EITHER...AND WE
WILL ACTUALLY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS IN THAT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS
FAR OUT...CONFIDENCE IN STILL VERY LOW IN THE MESOSCALE FEATURES AND
HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...CLIMATOLOGICALLY GIVEN THE BIG UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST AND
THE TIME OF YEAR...IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS
UPPER SYSTEM EVOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL...GIVE OR TAKE A FEW DEGREES OF 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PENDLETON OR
951 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE
TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER IN A FEW OF OUR ZONES THIS MORNING AND TO
INCREASE POPS AN ADDITIONAL 5-10 PCT FOR AREAS NEAR THE CASCADE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN HAS
SET UP FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE U.S. AN ELONGATED
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD...AND THE UPPER FLOW HAS
BACKED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADE RANGE AND AS FAR EAST
AS BICKLETON...CONDON AND PAULINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR LOOKS
REASONABLE SHOWING SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND 1400 AND INCREASING
IN COVERAGE BY 1800. SURFACE-BASED CAPES ARE AROUND 300 J/KG AND
LI`S BETWEEN 0 TO -2...SO THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE BULK WIND SHEAR IS MINIMAL TODAY...SO
HAVING A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT LIKELY
TO HAPPEN.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE YAKIMA
VALLEY. WISTER
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY WEST. THERE WILL BE
SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS NEAR KRDM...KBDN... KDLS...AND KYKM AFTER 21Z
WITH A FEW SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDS WILL BE 5-15KT AND A LITTLE
GUSTY AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 76
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
SHORT TERM...AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COOLER AIR WILL
INTRUDE. STILL...THERE WILL BE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SPUN UP
OVER THE AREA FOR ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS WELL AS
INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVEN CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THERE MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH
MODERATE 500-300MB LAPSE RATES. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS BUT FOR
NOW JUST CONTINUING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BY THURSDAY THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS. 500MB DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COULD ALSO AID IN
AIR ACCELERATING UPWARD. SO FOR THIS AREA...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
BY A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEY WILL STILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEBER
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE FROM CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THURSDAY EVENING
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. JUST THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A SHOWER OR STORM ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK DRY AS NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF WINDY PERIODS. THE FIRST WILL BE
FRIDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY N-NELY WINDS AND THE SECOND SUNDAY EVENING
IN THE CASCADE GAPS WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING PEAKING SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S COLUMBIA BASIN
THEN COOLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO MID 70S TO LOWER 80S LOWER
ELEVATIONS. 78
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 86 51 77 51 / 0 10 20 50
ALW 86 54 80 53 / 0 10 20 50
PSC 87 55 82 56 / 0 10 20 40
YKM 84 54 81 51 / 10 30 30 30
HRI 86 54 79 53 / 0 10 20 40
ELN 82 52 78 49 / 10 30 30 40
RDM 75 45 69 43 / 30 50 60 60
LGD 80 47 79 48 / 0 10 30 40
GCD 79 46 77 47 / 10 10 50 60
DLS 82 55 76 52 / 20 40 30 40
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
85/76
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
657 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LINGER AROUND
THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM ARE ROAMING THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE IT`S MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS RANGE FROM COOLISH (AROUND
50F) UP NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S AND A BIT MUGGY FAR SOUTH.
UPPER SHEAR AXIS SLOWLY SWINGING INTO THE EASTERN GLAKS AND
WESTERN PA WILL KEEP SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS GOING OVERNIGHT BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. HRRR KEEPS MOST NUMEROUS
AND PERSISTENT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS IN EXCESS OF 0.8"...AND DEEPER MARINE FLOW
PERSISTS. LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AND EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DZ CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER OH VLY AND
KEEP IT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS ON WED REFLECT THE
NORMAL OUTCOME OF AN UPPER LOW OVER OH/WV. SCT SHRA...WITH THE
HIGHER /LOW LIKELY/ POPS SLIDE FROM E-W AS THE MORE DRIZZLY STUFF
IS JOINED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WRN MTNS. MAXES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5-10F UNDER NORMALS DUE TO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR A LARGE TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S.
TO BECOME DOMINATED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND CURLING EASTWARD TO BE LOCATED OVER E NORTH
CAROLINA BY THU EVE AND DELMARVA ON FRI. SHOWERY PATTERN IN STORE
FOR SURE OVER THIS PERIOD...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ON THU LOCATED
OVER W PA /CLOSER TO UPPER LOW/ WITH PRECIP SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
FRI AS IT CONSOLIDATES NEAR SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A MODEST SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SEWD LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY UNWINDS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
BRINGING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR SUN/MON BEFORE WHAT LOOKS LIKE
COULD BE A PRETTY DECENT WARMUP AS RIDGING FINALLY ARRIVES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS WHILE VFR WITH OCNL MVFR
IS THE RULE OVER THE WEST AND NORTH.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND BRINGS AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR FROM LATE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BUT MOST OF THE FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED RAIN/DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME FOG OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. WITH LIMITED CAPE...VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION
WAS FOUND ALONG THIS COLD FRONT. THE MESO MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE THEN LOCATED NEAR
INTERSTATE 90 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BE EXITING NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING. WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 40S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE
0-1 KM MEAN LAYER CAPES REMAIN CLOSE TO 500 J/KG. LIKE THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...MUCH OF THE SHEAR REMAINS IN THE 0-3 KM RANGE AND
THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
PRIMARILY LINEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN
INVERTED V IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER...THERE WILL GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THERE WILL BE DEEP DIURNAL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. THE RAP /WHICH SOMETIME HAS ISSUES WITH MIXING TOO DEEP/
HAS THE WIND GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND NAM...ONLY
HAVE THE WIND GUSTS REACHING 35 MPH IN THESE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 03.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED
FROST.
ON FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND DEEP MIXING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S. THIS WAS 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL BLEND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS DAY. HOWEVER THEY DID FIT IN WELL WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS
AND ECMWF GRIDS.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SURFACE AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ARE ONLY IN THE THE
500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH BOTH
THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KNOTS...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO DEVELOP.
FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE 03.00Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
TREND DRY. THE GFS AND GEM EVEN KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE PRECIPITATION RETURNING ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW TREND...STAYED WITH WITH
CONSOLIDATED MODEL GRIDS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE STILL SET TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TIGHTER
GRADIENT/DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE WEST/
NORTHWEST WINDS 13-18KT G25-30KTS DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. FRONT AND LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
BAND OF SHRA/SCT TSRA AS IT THEY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
ROUGHLY 21Z-02Z TIME-FRAME. TIMING ESTIMATE REMAINS 23-01Z THRU KRST
AND 00-02Z THRU KLSE. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA...GOOD VFR EXPECTED
THRU THIS TAF PERIOD...AND MOVED SHRA AND ANY POTENTIAL CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THEM TO A TEMPO MENTION AS THE FRONT PASSES.
ANY SHRA/TSRA LOOKING TO ONLY IMPACT THE KRST/KLSE AIRFIELDS FOR
1/2HR OR LESS. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT/
EARLY WED MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING BY LATE
WED MORNING TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF AND SOME GUSTINESS OF THE
NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 04.15Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. THE LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE THERE
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...THE RAIN
WILL LIKELY NOT BE WIDESPREAD. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.25 INCH. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE WIND WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AND WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 10 MPH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....BOYNE
LONG TERM......BOYNE
AVIATION.......RRS
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE