Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/02/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
800 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.AVIATION...
02/00Z CYCLE. VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AOA FL050. A BRIEF SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KPGD...KFMY...AND KRSW TERMINALS THROUGH 03Z AND HAVE HANDLED
WITH VCSH/VCTS. A FEW OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE
TO THE TAMPA BAY TERMINALS THROUGH 03Z AS THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES INTERACT...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS AFTER 03Z. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 14Z ON MONDAY
BECOMING WEST AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS AFTER 18Z AT ALL COASTAL
TERMINALS AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS...WITH ISOLATED
TSRA POSSIBLE AT KLAL...KPGD...KFMY...AND KRSW TERMINALS AFTER
20Z WHERE VCTS HAS BEEN DEPICTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID/UPPER LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOUTHERN STREAM JET CROSSES OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE NOSE OF THE MAIN JETSTREAK
OVER OUR REGION. NORTHERN STREAM JET IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE
PROXIMITY...CROSSING OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...TO THE
MID MS AND OHIO VALLEYS. 01/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SAMPLED
THESE WINDS ALOFT WELL...SHOWING A DEEP LAYER WEST FLOW ABOVE
700MB.
AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TO
THE WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORMING AND
ONGOING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...BUT WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
REMOVED FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS
THAT WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH
ANVIL BLOWOFF ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM IN THE SYNOPTIC UPPER FLOW.
SEA-BREEZE HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST AND WE ARE NOW SEEING THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THIS WEST-COAST SEA-BREEZE AND THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE SET UP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. MID-AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
THE CUMULUS FIELD IN THIS REGION BECOMING A BIT MORE DEFINED.
ALTHOUGH...AS OF NOW...NOT SEEING ANYTHING ON RADAR AS THESE
COLUMNS ARE SHALLOW AND STILL TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG CAPPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWN WELL ON THE MORNING 12Z KTBW SOUNDING.
THIS CAPPING INVERSION WILL HOLD BACK MUCH OF THE CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WHERE MOISTURE POOLING IS GREATEST ALONG THE
CONVERGING SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES...ML CAPE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT
TO BRIEFLY OVERCOME THIS CAPPING LAYER AND SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCT STORMS AFTER 21Z. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE
ALREADY WAY TO AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION COMPARED TO
REALITY...SO UNFORTUNATELY CAN NOT USE THIS USUALLY RELIABLE
GUIDANCE TO HELP WITH THE SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS. FEEL THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION FOR NOW. EXPECT A
FEW STORMS TO FINALLY BREAK THIS CAP WITHIN THE ZONE DESCRIBED
ABOVE...MOST LIKELY INITIATING BETWEEN 21-22Z...AND THEN LINGER
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
TONIGHT...WITH THE LATE START TO THE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WOULD
ANTICIPATE THE CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP TO LINGERING FOR A FEW HOURS
PAST SUNSET. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
FAVORED CONVERGENCE ZONE UNTIL 03Z...AND THEN ALLOW THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY REGION-WIDE. A FEW POCKETS OF FOG ARE
QUITE LIKELY IN THE HOURS BEFORE DAWN...BUT NEITHER THE SREF OR
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING WE WILL HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
VIS ISSUES FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THAT THE COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE LOW...WOULD AGREE WITH THE NWP. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH UPPER 60S INLAND
AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
MONDAY...
OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM
TODAY. THE MOST INFLUENTIAL DIFFERENCE MAY BE THAT THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AND HENCE A BIT LESS
HOSTILE TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION. ALSO...THERE DOES STILL SEEM TO BE
A HINT OF THE CAPPING INVERSION IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT AT
LEAST FOR NOW...IT APPEARS LESS DRAMATIC. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE OF LATE DAY STORMS
ACROSS THE SAME FAVORED CONVERGENCE ZONE RUNNING ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. INHERITED FORECAST HAS 30-40% POPS IN
THIS ZONE...AND THEN TAPERS RAIN CHANCES BACK TO 10-20% AT THE
COAST. BASED ON THE EXTENT OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE CYCLE...DO NOT SEE
MUCH REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ANY CONVECTION ON MONDAY
WILL AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED BY THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO PUSH 90 FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AT THE BEACHES TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ENJOY YOUR SUNDAY EVENING EVERYONE!
MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE
WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WINDS BECOME MORE SW AS SURFACE RIDGE
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST. INCREASING MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT (H5 TEMPS AROUND -12C) SHOULD CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG SEABREEZE/BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AREA WIDE.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES HELPING TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE CATALYST
FOR GIVING THIS FRONT THE PUSH IT NEEDS TO CLEAR OUT OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS
SHORTWAVE...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY
EXIST...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SO STAY TUNED. EITHER
WAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT AND COOLER...DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
WILL FILTER IN TO THE PENINSULA BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THU-SAT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NO RAIN AND
LIMITED CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER 70S
TO LOW/MID 80S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MID/UPPER
50S...LOW/MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN
MODERATING LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF AND MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHIFT NORTH BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...AND WINDS REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT. ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS...THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE DURING WEDNESDAY. A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS ARRIVES ACROSS THE STATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AWAY
FROM THE COAST...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FOG OR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 74 87 74 86 / 20 10 10 30
FMY 71 88 73 88 / 20 30 20 20
GIF 71 90 71 89 / 10 30 30 40
SRQ 72 83 72 84 / 10 10 10 20
BKV 68 88 68 87 / 20 20 20 30
SPG 74 86 75 85 / 10 10 10 30
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
$$
AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WITHIN THIS TROUGH WE
FIND SEVERAL DISTINCT LOBES OF ENERGY/CLOSED LOWS...ONE EJECTING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING ABUNDANT RAIN/STORMS FROM THE
UPPER WEST TO THE MS VALLEY...AND A SECOND PIVOTING THROUGH THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION. DOWNSTREAM FROM ALL THIS INCLEMENT
ACTIVITY...THE FLOW RIDGES UP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WV IMAGERY DOES SHOW
PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL
PENINSULA ALONG THE NOSE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM JETSTREAK. THESE
CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 20-25KFT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
THE SUN AT TIMES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
DROP BELOW THIS CIRRUS LEVEL AND THE COLUMN OVER THE PENINSULA IS
GENERALLY QUITE DRY. THIS WAS SHOWN NICELY IN THE 30/12Z KTBW
SOUNDING PROFILE. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD WAS SAMPLED IN THE VICINITY OF 700MB...WITH A MARKED DROP
IN DEWPOINT/RH ABOVE THIS LEVEL.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AROUND THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST
SYNOPTIC FLOW. DESPITE THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS...HAVE STILL
EXPERIENCING SUFFICIENT INSOLATION FOR TEMPERATURE RISE WELL INTO
THE 80S. THE TERRESTRIAL HEATING HAS BROUGHT ON SEA-BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE SEEN MOST COASTAL STATIONS FLIP THEIR WIND
AROUND ONSHORE AND THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)...
NOW THAT THE SEA- BREEZE HAS BEGUN TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS
INLAND...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE.
MOST SPOTS WILL LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THE REST OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR ONE TRAVELS. THE DRY AIR
AND SUPPRESSION ARE DEEPEST AND STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE PENINSULA...AND ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE
QUITE ISOLATED AND BRIEF IN NATURE. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS
SLIGHTLY "MORE FAVORABLE" NORTH OF I-4...BUT "MORE FAVORABLE" IS
STILL NOT FAVORABLE. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER OUR NORTHERN
ZONES FOR UPDRAFTS TO BATTLE. STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA
DOES EXIST AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...AND CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND WEST COAST
SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS IS AT A MAXIMUM. HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW
CONVECTIVE CELLS GO UP TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND SHOULD SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH AFTER 20Z. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL ALSO SHIFT INLAND QUICKLY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WEST
COAST SEA- BREEZE. HAVE GONE WITH A 20-30% POP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE COAST...THE RAIN CHANCES
ONLY BRIEFLY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DECREASE BY
EARLY EVENING BEHIND THE SEA- BREEZE.
TONIGHT...FEW ISOLATED MID EVENING SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE HOUR OF SUNSET...AND
SET UP A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SEA-BREEZE SHUTS DOWN AND BECOME
LIGHT BY LATE EVENING. VERY PROBABLE TO SEE A FEW FOGGY PATCHES
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TOWARD DAWN...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT FOG
OR VISIBILITY PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SUNDAY... MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFT A BIT TO THE EAST...OVERALL
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS VERY SIMILAR TOMORROW. PLENTY OF DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR TO CONTEND WITH...WITH THE GREATEST SUPPRESSION AND MOST
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION EXISTING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE NOSE OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM JET NEARBY...WOULD ANTICIPATE BOUTS OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
CONTINUING TO INVADE OUR SKIES AND FILTER THE SUN FROM TIME TO
TIME. ALTHOUGH IF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT FIELDS FORECAST BY
MOST OF THE NWP MEMBERS ARE CORRECT...THE DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE LESS THAN HAS BEEN SEEN MOST OF TODAY. FOR THAT
REASON...THINK WE CAN STILL CALL IT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. ONCE
THE SEA- BREEZE FORMS...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
AWAY FROM THE COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL NOT BE GREAT AND SHOULD
HAVE LIMITED (IF ANY) IMPACT TO PLANNED OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
&&
.MID/LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
THE WORK WEEK STARTS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA AND AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SEABREEZE ACTIVITY. AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WE WILL
SEE A SURGE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING IN EXCESS
OF 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTN SEABREEZE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. EARLIER RUNS OF THE ECMWF DEPICTED A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WHICH WOULD HAVE AIDED IN
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DECENT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. HOWEVER...THE
MOST RECENT 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS COME IN LINE MORE WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH SHOWED A MUCH MORE LIMITED SEVERE THREAT COMPARED TO
THE 00Z ECMWF. THAT BEING SAID...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL INFILTRATE THE PENINSULA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY (LOW TO MID 80S) AND MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT...COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTH AND LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER OR STORM AT KLAL AFTER
20Z. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST WITH THE SEA- BREEZE FOR
KSRQ/KPIE/KTPA THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY PATCHY
FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF VIS RESTRICTIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...THEN
SLIDE EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT MARINE HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE APPROACH OF
THIS MID-WEEK FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...AND WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT. ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS...THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FOG OR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 72 89 73 88 / 10 0 10 20
FMY 69 89 71 90 / 0 10 10 20
GIF 69 91 70 90 / 20 10 10 30
SRQ 70 82 70 85 / 0 10 0 20
BKV 67 89 66 89 / 20 10 10 30
SPG 73 86 73 88 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...14/MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...11/MCKAUGHAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1154 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WITHIN THIS TROUGH WE FIND
SEVERAL DISTINCT LOBES OF ENERGY/CLOSED LOWS...ONE EJECTING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING ABUNDANT RAIN/STORMS FROM THE
UPPER WEST TO THE MS VALLEY...AND A SECOND PIVOTING THROUGH THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION. DOWNSTREAM FROM ALL THIS INCLEMENT
ACTIVITY...THE FLOW RIDGES UP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WV IMAGERY DOES SHOW
PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL
PENINSULA ALONG THE NOSE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM JETSTREAK. THESE
CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 20-25KFT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
THE SUN AT TIMES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
DROP BELOW THIS CIRRUS LEVEL AND THE COLUMN OVER THE PENINSULA IS
GENERALLY QUITE DRY. THIS WAS SHOWN NICELY IN THE 30/12Z KTBW
SOUNDING PROFILE. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD WAS SAMPLED IN THE VICINITY OF 700MB...WITH A MARKED DROP
IN DEWPOINT/RH ABOVE THIS LEVEL.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AROUND THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST
SYNOPTIC FLOW. DESPITE THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS...WE ARE STILL
EXPERIENCING SUFFICIENT INSOLATION FOR A DECENT TEMPERATURE RISE.
MOST SPOTS ARE NOW INTO THE LOWER 80S AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS
DISCUSSION. A LITTLE FURTHER TEMP RISE AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
OUR WINDS VEER ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST WITH SEA- BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. THIS TURNING SHOULD COMMENCE BETWEEN 16-18Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WARM AND BENIGN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS WE WAIT FOR THE SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP.
ONCE THE SEA-BREEZE BEGINS TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS INLAND...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WILL INCREASE. MOST SPOTS
WILL BE DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE I-4
CORRIDOR ONE TRAVELS. THE DRY AIR AND SUPPRESSION ARE DEEPEST AND
STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...AND ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED AND BRIEF IN
NATURE. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SLIGHTLY "MORE FAVORABLE" NORTH OF
I-4...BUT "MORE FAVORABLE" IS STILL NOT FAVORABLE. THERE IS
PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES FOR UPDRAFTS TO BATTLE.
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA DOES EXIST AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE EAST COAST
AND WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS IS AT A MAXIMUM. THE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO SHIFT INLAND QUICKLY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE. HAVE GONE WITH A 20-30% POP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE COAST...THE RAIN
CHANCES ONLY BRIEFLY OCCUR...AND THEN DECREASE AFTER MID-
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SEA- BREEZE.
TONIGHT...FEW ISOLATED MID EVENING SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE HOUR OF SUNSET...AND
SET UP A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SEA-BREEZE SHUTS DOWN AND BECOME
LIGHT BY LATE EVENING.
SUNDAY... MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFT A BIT TO THE EAST...OVERALL
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS VERY SIMILAR TOMORROW. PLENTY OF DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR TO CONTEND WITH...WITH THE GREATEST SUPPRESSION AND MOST
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION EXISTING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE NOSE OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM JET NEARBY...WOULD ANTICIPATE BOUTS OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
CONTINUING TO INVADE OUR SKIES AND FILTER THE SUN FROM TIME TO
TIME. FOR THAT REASON...WILL CALL IT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. ONCE
THE SEA-BREEZE FORMS...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL NOT BE GREAT AND SHOULD
HAVE LIMITED (IF ANY) IMPACT TO PLANNED OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER OR STORM AT KLAL AFTER
20Z. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST WITH THE SEA- BREEZE FOR
KSRQ/KPIE/KTPA THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY PATCHY
FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF VIS RESTRICTIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...THEN
SLIDE EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT MARINE HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE APPROACH OF
THIS MID-WEEK FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 89 72 89 72 / 10 10 0 10
FMY 89 69 89 71 / 10 0 10 0
GIF 89 69 91 70 / 10 10 10 10
SRQ 84 70 84 70 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 89 67 88 66 / 30 20 10 0
SPG 87 72 87 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1005 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
MEANDER TOWARD BERMUDA AS A DVLPG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS RIDES OVER ITS NRN FLANK. TRAILING RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND
BACK TOWARD THE I-4 CORRIDOR...PLACING THE CENTRAL PENINSULA UNDER A
SUBSIDING AIRMASS WITH LIMITED LOW LVL MOISTURE. MORNING SOUNDINGS
MEASURED PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.00"-1.25" RANGE STATEWIDE WITH A
NOTEWORTHY SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H80-H60 LYR.
S/SE WINDS 10-15KTS THRU THE H100-H90 LYR...BACKING OT THE E/NE ARND
10KTS THRU THE H90-H70LYR. EAST COAST WILL FORM BY EARLY AFTN...BUT
WILL BE RATHER DIFFUSE GIVEN THE PREVAILING LOW/MID LVL ERLY WIND
COMPONENT. LATEST RAP40 ANALYSIS INDICATES NO SIG MID LYR VORT MAXES
IN THE VCNTY...WHILE H30-H20 ISOTACHS REVEAL A JET CORE DIGGING OVER
CUBA AND THE ERN GOMEX THAT PLACES THE FL PENINSULA UNDER ITS
DESCENDING LEFT ENTRANCE QUAD. NOT SURPRISINGLY...H85-H30 OMEGA AND
H30-H20 DIVERGENCE FIELDS INDICATE A SINKING AIRMASS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...MID LVL VERTICAL MOTION...AND A
DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO COME BY.
INDEED...BOTH THE THE 2KM WRF AND THE HRRR MODELS INDICATE ONLY
ISOLD SHRAS BTWN 18Z-22Z WEST OF A LAKE KISSIMMEE/LAKE GEORGE LINE
WITH EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MERGER OCCURRING W OF LAKE COUNTY
ARND SUNSET. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALNG
AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...EXCLUDING COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY AS THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD PUSH WELL INLAND BEFORE ANY CONVECTION DVLPS.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE AVG...REACHING THE LOWER 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT SOME
VERY HIGH (CIRRUS) CLOUDS WHICH MAY FILTER THE SUNSHINE FROM TIME TO
TIME. NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MRNG.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 31/12Z.
SFC WINDS: THRU 30/16Z...S/SE 5-9KTS. BTWN 30/16Z-30/18Z...BCMG E/SE
10-14KTS WITH OCNL G18-22KTS. BTWN 01/00Z-01/03Z...BCMG SE 4-8KTS.
VSBYS/WX/CIGS: PREVAILING VFR...VERY HI CIGS BTWN FL350-400. THRU
30/18Z...LCL MVFR CIGS BTWN FL020-030 COASTAL SITES. BTWN 30/18Z-
30/24Z...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS W OF KISM-KSFB-KOMN.
&&
.MARINE...
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDS AS A HI PRES RIDGE DRAPED OVER THE FL
PENINSULA GENERATES A LIGHT TO GENTLE SERLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL
ATLC...BCMG E/SE ARND 15KTS NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY AFTN WITH THE
FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND
2-3FT OFFSHORE. NO SIG CHANGES WITH THE MRNG UPDATE.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
754 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST
TERMINALS WITH THE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO SET-UP AROUND 14-15Z.
FOR TERMINAL KAPF...THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO SET-UP AROUND
18-19Z BUT MORE FROM THE SSW DUE TO THE PREVAILING EASTERLY
REGIONAL WINDS.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS WITH A EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM TEXAS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT UPPER
LEVELS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE PENINSULA PER
LATER WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
MOVING INTO REGION.
SHORT TERM...FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LATEST GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TRENDS INDICATE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND PENINSULA TODAY
EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL WITH
GUIDANCE INDICATING PWAT`S AROUND 1.2 INCHES OR LESS DURING THIS
PERIOD. GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE RESULTING IN FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DUE TO DOMINANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...LITTLE
TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ON OCCASION OR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOONS. YET CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODELS NOT VERY
EXCITED ABOUT PROSPECTS. FOR NOW DECIDED TO LEAVE A SILENT POP IN
THE GRIDS AND WILL LET MORNING SHIFT RE-ASSESS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LOW AND DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS BY TUESDAY AND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IN ADVANCE OF
THAT ON MONDAY SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR PENINSULA ARE POSSIBLE. BY TUESDAY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. BY MID TO LATE WEEK GLOBAL MODELS
ARE MORE IN LINE NOW BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST WITH EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NE. THIS WOULD SUSTAIN AND/OR INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING PATTERN SETTING UP BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH TEMPS COOLING TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER, THE CONSISTENCY AMONG THE
MODELS FROM CYCLE TO CYCLE HAS NOT BEEN THAT GREAT MEANING THERE
STILL REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS, ANALYSIS OF ANOMALY TABLES BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATE NO OUTSTANDING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGH IMPACT WEATHER ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEK AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK PARTICULARLY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH
OUTLOOK INDICATING COOLER CONDITIONS BY LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND AS
NOTED ABOVE. FOR NOW THE STORY CONTINUES TO BE RAIN CHANCES
GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM EARLY TO MID/LATE WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANT
DRYING BY END OF WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AREA REMAINS ON
SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NE.
MARINE...
ESE WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS MOST OF THE WEEKEND PEAKING
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS BOTH GULF AND ATLANTIC SOUTHERN WATERS
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE EARLY
IN THE WEEK AS HIGH TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT
LESS THAN 4 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS OR SO. THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE
LOW ON GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG ATLANTIC ANOMALIES ARE A COAST.
LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION RIP CURRENT MODEL EVEN INDICATES THE RISK
COULD BE BORDERLINE HIGH AT TIMES PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND ALONG
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 74 85 75 / 0 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 76 86 76 / 0 0 10 10
MIAMI 86 75 86 76 / 0 10 10 10
NAPLES 89 71 89 70 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...60/BD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
634 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
.UPDATE...
The latest ensemble of CAM guidance as well as the HRRR show a
bit better coverage of convection this afternoon across our
eastern counties of south-central Georgia and the eastern big bend
in association with some surface convergence in that area. Thus,
the PoPs were increased into the 30-40 percent range there
compared to 20-30 percent from earlier. No other changes were made
at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
[Through 12z Sunday] A variety of conditions will exist through
the mid-morning hours depending on the location, ranging from
VFR in some places to VLIFR in others. The ECP terminal is likely
to see the worst conditions continuing with VLIFR through around
13-14z expected. A return to VFR areawide is expected by around
14-15z. Isolated to scattered afternoon convection is possible
around VLD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [346 AM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The 06z analysis depicts a large upper level trough over the western
half of the country with ridging off the southeast coast. Surface
low pressure was centered across the lower MS Valley with a squall
line stretching from east Texas to southwest Arkansas. Closer to
home, a moist boundary layer coupled with light winds and mostly
clear skies has led to scattered areas of fog this morning,
particularly across the Florida panhandle. This fog is expected by
the mid-morning hours with another warm day expected with highs in
the upper 80s to near 90 away from the coast. Convective activity is
expected to be mostly minimal today, but some of the CAMs do show
some scattered convection across the eastern areas this afternoon in
association with some surface convergence. The ensemble of CAMs did
an excellent job yesterday, and the official forecast followed it
closely today, resulting in 20-30 percent chances of thunderstorms
near and east of a line from Albany to Cross City this afternoon.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...
Upper level ridging will flatten to zonal flow on Monday. A weak
cold front will approach Sunday and stall over or just north of
of our CWA by late Monday. Best chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be in close proximity of the frontal boundary.
Thus, PoPs both days will be tapered chance (30-40%) north to
slight chance (20%) south. Above seasonal temps will continue with
highs around 90 and lows in the mid to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
A deep trough will develop east of the Plains as an upper low
drops southward from Ontario Tuesday into the mid-Atlantic states
Friday through Saturday. This will push the surface front well to
our south and east by late Wednesday and send a secondary dry cold
front through the local region Thursday night/early Friday. PoPs
will be 30-40% Tuesday and tapered 20-40% northwest to southeast
Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday will be dry with temperatures
near or just below seasonal levels.
.MARINE...
Light southerly winds will continue across the local waters
through Monday. Despite the light winds, seas will increase to
the 2 to 4 feet range Sunday as longer period swell develops in
the long southerly fetch. Winds will shift to the west and
northwest Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front approaches and
pushes through the waters.
.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
RH values above critical levels.
.HYDROLOGY...
Only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was at "action stage", and
will fall below this level on Sunday. Rainfall amounts for the
upcoming week are not expected to be particularly heavy or
widespread.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 90 69 90 66 90 / 0 0 20 20 30
Panama City 81 72 82 69 83 / 0 10 20 10 20
Dothan 88 68 87 67 88 / 10 10 30 20 30
Albany 90 68 89 68 89 / 20 20 40 30 40
Valdosta 91 69 90 68 91 / 40 20 30 30 30
Cross City 90 68 89 66 89 / 20 10 20 10 20
Apalachicola 82 71 82 70 83 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Fournier
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1012 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.UPDATE...
AFTER AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO QUIET DOWN ACROSS MOST
AREAS. STILL A ZONE OF MLCAPE HOWEVER IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG SO
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED...WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF POPS
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IN STORE
FOR MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
DEESE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. CURRENTLY...THERE IS A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM BACK ACROSS MS/AL. THE HRRR HAD A
GOOD HANDLE THIS MORNING ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION SO LEANING THAT DIRECTING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE HIGH
RES HRRR SHOWS A DIURNAL TREND WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SHOWING THEM CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA THEN DIMINISHING BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA FOR TODAY AND MONDAY.
THIS DOES LOOK GOOD AS THE BET MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYS ACROSS
NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE A VERY SIMILAR DAY MONDAY WITH WHEN AND
WHERE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP BACK UP MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.
01
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS STILL IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED. THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
17
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF ON A STORMY NOTE...BUT IS OVERALL
UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. STRONG SHORTWAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH BEST INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR AHEAD OF IT. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
EXPECT STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BE
MORE ORGANIZED AND PUSH THROUGH THE STATE RATHER QUICKLY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND AT THIS TIME SPC
DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA HIGHLIGHTED IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL STILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE STATE. POPS WEDNESDAY TAPER
OFF QUICKLY...THOUGH MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC AT THIS TIME.
CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT DRY/COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LARGELY DOMINATE OVER THE
AREA. ASIDE FROM SOME MINIMAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS FAR
NORTH GEORGIA...EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE
DRY. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE WEEK DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
31
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ALTHOUGH CSG IS BEGINNING TO GET IN ON THE
ACT AS WELL. HAVE HAD TO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR TSRA FOR ATL FOR AN
HOUR FOR ACTIVITY WHICH SHOULD BE ON THE WANE SOON.
THEREAFTER...EXPECTING A QUIET PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT AND REALLY
MUCH OF MONDAY. EXPECTING A LATE START TO THE TSRA MONDAY AND HAVE
PUSHED BACK PROB30 TO 21Z AND 22Z FOR THE NORTHERN SITES. SOME
MVFR POSSIBLE AT CSG AND AHN TONIGHT AND ISOLD REDUCTIONS TO VSBY
AT ATL TERMINALS DUE TO EARLIER RAINFALL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA TIMING MONDAY.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 65 83 62 78 / 50 60 60 40
ATLANTA 66 81 62 74 / 50 60 60 40
BLAIRSVILLE 60 76 58 70 / 50 70 70 40
CARTERSVILLE 63 80 61 74 / 50 70 70 30
COLUMBUS 67 84 65 79 / 40 50 50 40
GAINESVILLE 64 79 61 73 / 50 60 60 40
MACON 65 86 64 81 / 40 50 50 50
ROME 63 80 60 74 / 40 70 70 30
PEACHTREE CITY 62 82 61 76 / 50 60 60 40
VIDALIA 68 87 68 83 / 30 50 50 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
832 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. CURRENTLY...THERE IS A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM BACK ACROSS MS/AL. THE HRRR HAD A
GOOD HANDLE THIS MORNING ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION SO LEANING THAT DIRECTING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE HIGH
RES HRRR SHOWS A DIURNAL TREND WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SHOWING THEM CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA THEN DIMINISHING BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA FOR TODAY AND MONDAY.
THIS DOES LOOK GOOD AS THE BET MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYS ACROSS
NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE A VERY SIMILAR DAY MONDAY WITH WHEN AND
WHERE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP BACK UP MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.
01
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS STILL IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED. THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
17
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF ON A STORMY NOTE...BUT IS OVERALL
UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. STRONG SHORTWAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH BEST INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR AHEAD OF IT. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
EXPECT STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BE
MORE ORGANIZED AND PUSH THROUGH THE STATE RATHER QUICKLY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND AT THIS TIME SPC
DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA HIGHLIGHTED IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL STILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE STATE. POPS WEDNESDAY TAPER
OFF QUICKLY...THOUGH MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC AT THIS TIME.
CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT DRY/COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LARGELY DOMINATE OVER THE
AREA. ASIDE FROM SOME MINIMAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS FAR
NORTH GEORGIA...EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE
DRY. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE WEEK DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
31
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ALTHOUGH CSG IS BEGINNING TO GET IN ON THE
ACT AS WELL. HAVE HAD TO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR TSRA FOR ATL FOR AN
HOUR FOR ACTIVITY WHICH SHOULD BE ON THE WANE SOON.
THEREAFTER...EXPECTING A QUIET PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT AND REALLY
MUCH OF MONDAY. EXPECTING A LATE START TO THE TSRA MONDAY AND HAVE
PUSHED BACK PROB30 TO 21Z AND 22Z FOR THE NORTHERN SITES. SOME
MVFR POSSIBLE AT CSG AND AHN TONIGHT AND ISOLD REDUCTIONS TO VSBY
AT ATL TERMINALS DUE TO EARLIER RAINFALL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA TIMING MONDAY.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 65 83 62 78 / 50 60 60 40
ATLANTA 66 81 62 74 / 50 60 60 40
BLAIRSVILLE 60 76 58 70 / 50 70 70 40
CARTERSVILLE 63 80 61 74 / 50 70 70 30
COLUMBUS 67 84 65 79 / 40 50 50 40
GAINESVILLE 64 79 61 73 / 50 60 60 40
MACON 65 86 64 81 / 40 50 50 50
ROME 63 80 60 74 / 40 70 70 30
PEACHTREE CITY 62 82 61 76 / 50 60 60 40
VIDALIA 68 87 68 83 / 30 50 50 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
928 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER TODAY
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OCCUR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY A STATIONARY FRONT
NEAR THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER TODAY RETREATING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE
HAS INCREASED IN THE LOW- LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. SATELLITE TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS GREATEST. WE
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART. HEATING
AND MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG AND LEAD TO BREAKS IN THE
STRATUS LATER THIS MORNING. HEATING AND THE MOISTURE INCREASE
SHOULD HELP CAUSE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BUT LINGERING H5 RIDGING
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THE HRRR AND ARW DISPLAYED SCATTERED
COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE
WAS HIGH SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE POPS. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS
BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE INCONSISTENT GUIDANCE. THE
NAM INDICATED SURFACE-BASED LI/S ABOUT -7 AND TOTAL TOTALS AROUND
51. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY INDICATES POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FAVOR HAIL. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
TODAY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUED TO DISPLAY HIGH MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS
DEPICTED WEAK H85 WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL FEATURE WAS NOT INDICATED.
FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAYED INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT MONDAY. THERE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE OR A WAVE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS ALSO WERE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION OF AN H5 CUT-OFF LOW FRIDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF MOS HAVE MAINLY INDICATED HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY WITH THE FORECAST AREA POSITIONED UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN H25 JET. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAD
TEMPERATURE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. THE MOS
TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z.
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS SPREAD OVER ALL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS 1/4SM AND CIGS AROUND 200-300 FT.
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH 14Z THEN BECOME VFR
AS MIXING AND DAYTIME HEATING ERODE THE FOG/STRATUS.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE AREA BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS SO CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 04Z
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. SHOWERS MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE AT AGS/DNL/CAE BY THAT TIME AS WELL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
COULD CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MONDAY. EARLY
MORNING LOW CIGS LOOK POSSIBLE AT ALL THE TERMINALS SUNDAY/MONDAY
MORNING WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
SEEM TO BE IN LINE FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
828 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER TODAY
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OCCUR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH AND
SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER TODAY RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE HAS INCREASED IN THE LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE TRENDS
AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATUS AND FOG HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST SECTION
WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS GREATEST. WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD
DISSIPATE THE FOG AND LEAD TO BREAKS IN THE STRATUS LATER THIS
MORNING. HEATING AND THE MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD HELP CAUSE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BUT LINGERING H5 RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE. THE HRRR AND ARW DISPLAYED SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN
THE NORTHWEST SECTION CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE WAS HIGH
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE POPS. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE INCONSISTENT GUIDANCE. THE NAM INDICATED
SURFACE-BASED LI/S ABOUT -7 AND TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 51. THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY INDICATES POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
FAVOR HAIL. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUED TO DISPLAY HIGH MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS
DEPICTED WEAK H85 WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL FEATURE WAS NOT INDICATED.
FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAYED INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT MONDAY. THERE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE OR A WAVE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS ALSO WERE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION OF AN H5 CUT-OFF LOW FRIDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF MOS HAVE MAINLY INDICATED HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY WITH THE FORECAST AREA POSITIONED UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN H25 JET. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAD
TEMPERATURE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. THE MOS
TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z.
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS SPREAD OVER ALL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS 1/4SM AND CIGS AROUND 200-300 FT.
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH 14Z THEN BECOME VFR
AS MIXING AND DAYTIME HEATING ERODE THE FOG/STRATUS.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE AREA BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS SO CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 04Z
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. SHOWERS MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE AT AGS/DNL/CAE BY THAT TIME AS WELL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
COULD CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MONDAY. EARLY
MORNING LOW CIGS LOOK POSSIBLE AT ALL THE TERMINALS SUNDAY/MONDAY
MORNING WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
SEEM TO BE IN LINE FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ022-
027>031-035>038-041.
&&
$$
AVIATION...HC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
625 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER TODAY
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OCCUR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH AND
SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER TODAY RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE HAS INCREASED IN THE LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE TRENDS
AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATUS AND FOG HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST SECTION
WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS GREATEST. WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD
DISSIPATE THE FOG AND LEAD TO BREAKS IN THE STRATUS LATER THIS
MORNING. HEATING AND THE MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD HELP CAUSE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BUT LINGERING H5 RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE. THE HRRR AND ARW DISPLAYED SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN
THE NORTHWEST SECTION CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE WAS HIGH
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE POPS. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE INCONSISTENT GUIDANCE. THE NAM INDICATED
SURFACE-BASED LI/S ABOUT -7 AND TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 51. THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY INDICATES POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
FAVOR HAIL. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUED TO DISPLAY HIGH MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS
DEPICTED WEAK H85 WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL FEATURE WAS NOT INDICATED.
FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAYED INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT MONDAY. THERE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE OR A WAVE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS ALSO WERE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION OF AN H5 CUT-OFF LOW FRIDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF MOS HAVE MAINLY INDICATED HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY WITH THE FORECAST AREA POSITIONED UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN H25 JET. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAD
TEMPERATURE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. THE MOS
TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. LATEST SURFACE OBS AND LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING IFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA TAF SITES THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND 13Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 04Z SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
AGS/DNL/CAE BY THAT TIME AS WELL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
COULD CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MONDAY. EARLY
MORNING LOW CIGS LOOK POSSIBLE AT ALL THE TERMINALS SUNDAY/MONDAY
MORNING WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
SEEM TO BE IN LINE FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY IT BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN
DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ022-
027>031-035>038-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
618 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER TODAY
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OCCUR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH AND
SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER TODAY RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE HAS INCREASED IN THE LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE TRENDS
AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATUS AND FOG HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST SECTION
WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS GREATEST. WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD
DISSIPATE THE FOG AND LEAD TO BREAKS IN THE STRATUS LATER THIS
MORNING. HEATING AND THE MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD HELP CAUSE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BUT LINGERING H5 RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE. THE HRRR AND ARW DISPLAYED SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN
THE NORTHWEST SECTION CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE WAS HIGH
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE POPS. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE INCONSISTENT GUIDANCE. THE NAM INDICATED
SURFACE-BASED LI/S ABOUT -7 AND TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 51. THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY INDICATES POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
FAVOR HAIL. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUED TO DISPLAY HIGH MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS
DEPICTED WEAK H85 WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL FEATURE WAS NOT INDICATED.
FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAYED INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT MONDAY. THERE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE OR A WAVE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS ALSO WERE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION OF AN H5 CUT-OFF LOW FRIDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF MOS HAVE MAINLY INDICATED HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY WITH THE FORECAST AREA POSITIONED UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN H25 JET. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAD
TEMPERATURE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. THE MOS
TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. LATEST SURFACE OBS AND LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS/CIGS IN FOG
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
HAVE MENTION TEMPO IFR CIGS AT OGB BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
COULD CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MONDAY. EARLY
MORNING LOW CIGS LOOK POSSIBLE AT ALL THE TERMINALS SUNDAY/MONDAY
MORNING WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
SEEM TO BE IN LINE FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY IT BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN
DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ022-
027>031-035>038-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
544 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER TODAY
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OCCUR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH AND
SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER TODAY RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE HAS INCREASED IN THE LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE TRENDS
AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATUS AND FOG HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST SECTION
WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS GREATEST. WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD
DISSIPATE THE FOG AND LEAD TO BREAKS IN THE STRATUS LATER THIS
MORNING. HEATING AND THE MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD HELP CAUSE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BUT LINGERING H5 RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE. THE HRRR AND ARW DISPLAYED SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN
THE NORTHWEST SECTION CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE WAS HIGH
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE POPS. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE INCONSISTENT GUIDANCE. THE NAM INDICATED
SURFACE-BASED LI/S ABOUT -7 AND TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 51. THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY INDICATES POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
FAVOR HAIL. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUED TO DISPLAY HIGH MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS
DEPICTED WEAK H85 WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL FEATURE WAS NOT INDICATED.
FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAYED INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT MONDAY. THERE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE OR A WAVE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS ALSO WERE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION OF AN H5 CUT-OFF LOW FRIDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF MOS HAVE MAINLY INDICATED HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY WITH THE FORECAST AREA POSITIONED UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN H25 JET. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAD
TEMPERATURE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. THE MOS
TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. LATEST SURFACE OBS AND LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS/CIGS IN FOG
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
HAVE MENTION TEMPO IFR CIGS AT OGB BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
COULD CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MONDAY. EARLY
MORNING LOW CIGS LOOK POSSIBLE AT ALL THE TERMINALS SUNDAY/MONDAY
MORNING WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
SEEM TO BE IN LINE FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY IT BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN
DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ035-036-
041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
414 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER TODAY
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OCCUR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH AND
SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER TODAY RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE HAS INCREASED IN THE LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE TRENDS
SUPPORT STRATUS AND FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION EARLY THIS
MORNING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE ANY FOG LATER THIS
MORNING. HEATING AND THE MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD HELP CAUSE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BUT LINGERING H5 RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE. THE HRRR AND ARW DISPLAYED SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN
THE NORTHWEST SECTION CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE WAS HIGH
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE POPS. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE INCONSISTENT GUIDANCE. THE NAM INDICATED
SURFACE-BASED LI/S ABOUT -7 AND TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 51. THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY INDICATES POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
FAVOR HAIL. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUED TO DISPLAY HIGH MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS
DEPICTED WEAK H85 WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL FEATURE WAS NOT INDICATED.
FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAYED INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT MONDAY. THERE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE OR A WAVE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS ALSO WERE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION OF AN H5 CUT-OFF LOW FRIDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF MOS HAVE MAINLY INDICATED HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY WITH THE FORECAST AREA POSITIONED UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN H25 JET. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAD
TEMPERATURE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. THE MOS
TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. LATEST SURFACE OBS AND LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS/CIGS IN FOG
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
HAVE MENTION TEMPO IFR CIGS AT OGB BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
COULD CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MONDAY. EARLY
MORNING LOW CIGS LOOK POSSIBLE AT ALL THE TERMINALS SUNDAY/MONDAY
MORNING WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
SEEM TO BE IN LINE FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY IT BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN
DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ035-036-
041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
401 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER TODAY
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OCCUR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH AND
SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER TODAY RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE HAS INCREASED IN THE LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE TRENDS
SUPPORT STRATUS AND FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION EARLY THIS
MORNING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE ANY FOG LATER THIS
MORNING. HEATING AND THE MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD HELP CAUSE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BUT LINGERING H5 RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE. THE HRRR AND ARW DISPLAYED SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN
THE NORTHWEST SECTION CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE WAS HIGH
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE POPS. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE INCONSISTENT GUIDANCE. THE NAM INDICATED
SURFACE-BASED LI/S ABOUT -7 AND TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 51. THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY INDICATES POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
FAVOR HAIL. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUED TO DISPLAY HIGH MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS
DEPICTED WEAK H85 WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL FEATURE WAS NOT INDICATED.
FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAYED INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT MONDAY. THERE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE OR A WAVE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS ALSO WERE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION OF AN H5 CUT-OFF LOW FRIDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF MOS HAVE MAINLY INDICATED HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY WITH THE FORECAST AREA POSITIONED UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN H25 JET. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAD
TEMPERATURE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. THE MOS
TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS/CIGS IN FOG ACROSS THE MIDLANDS TAF SITES
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT
IMPACT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON FOG FORMATION. HAVE INDICATED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG AT KAGS/KOGB FROM 09-14Z. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
COULD CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MONDAY. EARLY
MORNING LOW CIGS LOOK POSSIBLE AT ALL THE TERMINALS SUNDAY/MONDAY
MORNING WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
SEEM TO BE IN LINE FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY IT BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN
DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
851 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.UPDATE...850 PM CDT
THE MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH ALLOWED MANY
REPORTS OF UP TO HALF INCH HAIL ACROSS EASTERN WILL AND SOUTHERN
COOK COUNTIES HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS DIMINISHING TREND LIKELY OWING TO CONVECTION
OUTRUNNING INSTABILITY AXIS AND WHILE STRONGEST FORCING CONTINUES
TO LIFT TO THE NORTH. EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA OVER THE NEXT HOUR...WITH ISOLATED PEA SIZE HAIL STILL
POSSIBLE. STEADIER RAIN WILL LIKELY BE MORE PREVALENT OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AS THIS
PRECIP SHIELD SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...
234 PM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF
NEXT ROUND OF PCPN. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS STILL WELL TO THE
WEST...OVER SRN IA/NRN MO...AND LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATE SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
SO...WHILE STILL FEEL THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA IS LIKELY FOR THE
REGION...IT COULD HOLD OFF FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLD TS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST NORTH
OF THE SFC WARM FRONT...AND CLOSER TO THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE THE MOST CONCENTRATED. OTHERWISE...FOR THE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AS NELY FLOW
PERSISTS OFF OF THE RELATIVELY COLD LAKE MICHIGAN WATER.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 40S NEAR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE AND REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
COOL...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S TOWARD THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND
THE UPPER 40S SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND FINALLY PUSH TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MORNING. WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD HELP SHUT OFF AND RESIDUAL
PCPN CHANCES AND BRING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST
PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM
WAVE...SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES...THOUGH WITH WINDS STILL NELY AT THE SFC...LAKEFRONT
LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REMAIN COOLER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...WITH HIGHS ALONG THE LAKEFRONT ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE
INLAND AREAS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
203 PM CDT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ELONGATED MID-LVL TROUGH WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION LATE MON
NIGHT...HEADED FOR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A BROAD
SFC RIDGE TO SLIDE SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND ALSO STEADILY ERODE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP...HOWEVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWFA COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY MON EVE BEFORE
QUICKLY ENDING. WINDS WILL BE TURNING NORTHERLY BUT WITH THE WEAK
GRADIENT SPEEDS WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH...SO EXPECT THE EROSION OF
CLOUD COVER TO BE SLOW. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S...BUT A
FEW AREAS IN FAR NORTHERN IL COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING...SO
WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME FROM INCLUDING ANY MENTION OF FROST MON
NGT.
TUE WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE BROAD SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT WILL EXTEND EAST THROUGH THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
MID-LVL RIDGE LIFTING INTO WESTERN CANADA A LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL
DRIVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE AFTN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TUE NGT...WITH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES SOUTH LATE TUE. LAPSE RATES WILL
QUICKLY STEEPEN AS THE 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS AND SFC TEMPS
TUE AFTN WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO REMAIN
MARGINAL...HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE PRESENT THAT A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER COULD OCCUR LATE TUE/EARLY WED. HAVE PUSHED POPS
UP TO LIKELY TUE EVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FORTUNATELY ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE
PROGRESSIVE AND PUSH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FURTHER EAST BY EARLY
WED...WHICH SHOULD HELP EJECT THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WED MORNING AND BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT DRIER AIR COULD
ARRIVE BY EARLY WED AFTN. BUT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND THE 50S...AND AREAS AJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S WED AFTN. WED NGT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
ARRIVES WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPS...FALLING INTO THE MID/UPR 30S. AT THIS TIME HAVE HELD OFF ON
MENTION OF FROST BUT IF CLOUDS ERODE QUICKER WED EVE THEN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST IS PLAUSIBLE FOR AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NORTH OF I-80.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... LATEST ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS FEATURE
SLIDES EAST...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH THE FOCUS TURNING
TOWARDS THE MID-LVL TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
SAT/SUN. SIMULTANEOUSLY A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO...AND COULD LAYOUT A BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL QUICKLY MODERATE FROM THE
60S TO PERHAPS LOW 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN DEPENDING ON A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT SUN COULD SEE TEMPS BACK IN THE 60S.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
CONCERNS FOR THE 0Z TAFS
- DEVELOPING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE TAF CYCLE
- CIGS LOWERING BACK TO LIFR IN THE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED IFR VSBY
- TIMING THE LIFTING OF CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
- CONTINUED ENE WINDS GREATER THAN 10 KT
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS
IN THE COMING HOURS. CHANGES IN THIS TAF CYCLE WERE TO INCLUDE
VCTS FOR THE CHICAGOLAND TERMINALS. RAP ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS
WILL SLIDE RIGHT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEN NOW AND 3Z. SINCE
INSTABILTY LEVELS ARE LOW HAVE JUST GONE VCTS AS COVERAGE AT THIS
POINT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD.
CIGS ARE HOLDING GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 1000 FT. AS RAIN FALLS INTO
THE MOIST LOW LAYERS EXPECT THAT CIGS WILL TREND TOWARD IFR.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUPER HIGH EXACTLY WHEN CIGS WILL FALL BELOW THE
800 FT THRESHOLD OF CONCERN FOR ORD ON THE CURRENT EAST FLOW
PLAYBOOK GIVEN THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM OVERHEAD BUT
LATEST TRENDS FROM THE LAMP/RAP/HRRR SUGGEST THE MAIN WINDOW WILL
BE BETWEEN 2Z-6Z...STARTING AS EARLY AS 1Z.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIT EAST AFTER 4Z...THOUGH CIGS APPEAR TO
HOLD AT LIFR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE A LIFTING TREND SHOULD
OCCUR. MOST GUIDANCE LIFTS CIGS ABOVE IFR LEVELS FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING RUSH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC TRANSITION TIMES
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ARE NOT SUPER HIGH. OTHERWISE MONDAY
SHOULD BE A BETTER DAY WITH CIGS LIFTING THROUGH MVFR TO
VFR...THOUGH EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT OR ABOVE 10 KT
MOST OF THE DAY.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
304 PM CDT
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE NEARSHORE
WATERS ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE TO DIMINSH AS WELL. STILL LOOKING AT
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FT TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
DIMINISHING TREND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS....A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL TRY TO INCREASE
THE GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
ALTHOUGH THE WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT AT
THE MOST...BUT NOT LINGER VERY LONG. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INFLUENCES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH LIGHTER
WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTH FROM CENTRAL
CANADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST
BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLIDE SOUTH AND INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND TURN
WINDS NORTHERLY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD.
SMALL CRAFT HAZARDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY FOR THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA NEARSHORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
646 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.UPDATE...611 PM CDT
MONITORING LOW POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE CWA...SOUTH OF A FAIRBURY IL TO
RENSSELAER IN LINE. IN AND AROUND SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CWA IN 60 DEG DEWPOINT AIR...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
HAVE ALLOWED FOR AN INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
ALTHOUGH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CWA...THIS HIGHER DEWPOINT AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR IS RIGHT NEAR
THE CWA LINE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO FURTHER BLOSSOM OVER
THE COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE AREA OF
INTEREST COULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED MORE ROBUST STORM. EXPECT
A HIGHER THREAT OF A MORE ORGANIZED STORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA...BUT ONCE AGAIN...AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CLIPPING THE CWA
WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...
234 PM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF
NEXT ROUND OF PCPN. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS STILL WELL TO THE
WEST...OVER SRN IA/NRN MO...AND LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATE SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
SO...WHILE STILL FEEL THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA IS LIKELY FOR THE
REGION...IT COULD HOLD OFF FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLD TS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST NORTH
OF THE SFC WARM FRONT...AND CLOSER TO THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE THE MOST CONCENTRATED. OTHERWISE...FOR THE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AS NELY FLOW
PERSISTS OFF OF THE RELATIVELY COLD LAKE MICHIGAN WATER.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 40S NEAR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE AND REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
COOL...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S TOWARD THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND
THE UPPER 40S SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND FINALLY PUSH TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MORNING. WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD HELP SHUT OFF AND RESIDUAL
PCPN CHANCES AND BRING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST
PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM
WAVE...SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES...THOUGH WITH WINDS STILL NELY AT THE SFC...LAKEFRONT
LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REMAIN COOLER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...WITH HIGHS ALONG THE LAKEFRONT ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE
INLAND AREAS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
203 PM CDT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ELONGATED MID-LVL TROUGH WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION LATE MON
NIGHT...HEADED FOR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A BROAD
SFC RIDGE TO SLIDE SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND ALSO STEADILY ERODE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP...HOWEVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWFA COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY MON EVE BEFORE
QUICKLY ENDING. WINDS WILL BE TURNING NORTHERLY BUT WITH THE WEAK
GRADIENT SPEEDS WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH...SO EXPECT THE EROSION OF
CLOUD COVER TO BE SLOW. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S...BUT A
FEW AREAS IN FAR NORTHERN IL COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING...SO
WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME FROM INCLUDING ANY MENTION OF FROST MON
NGT.
TUE WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE BROAD SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT WILL EXTEND EAST THROUGH THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
MID-LVL RIDGE LIFTING INTO WESTERN CANADA A LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL
DRIVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE AFTN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TUE NGT...WITH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES SOUTH LATE TUE. LAPSE RATES WILL
QUICKLY STEEPEN AS THE 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS AND SFC TEMPS
TUE AFTN WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO REMAIN
MARGINAL...HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE PRESENT THAT A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER COULD OCCUR LATE TUE/EARLY WED. HAVE PUSHED POPS
UP TO LIKELY TUE EVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FORTUNATELY ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE
PROGRESSIVE AND PUSH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FURTHER EAST BY EARLY
WED...WHICH SHOULD HELP EJECT THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WED MORNING AND BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT DRIER AIR COULD
ARRIVE BY EARLY WED AFTN. BUT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND THE 50S...AND AREAS AJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S WED AFTN. WED NGT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
ARRIVES WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPS...FALLING INTO THE MID/UPR 30S. AT THIS TIME HAVE HELD OFF ON
MENTION OF FROST BUT IF CLOUDS ERODE QUICKER WED EVE THEN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST IS PLAUSIBLE FOR AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NORTH OF I-80.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... LATEST ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS FEATURE
SLIDES EAST...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH THE FOCUS TURNING
TOWARDS THE MID-LVL TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
SAT/SUN. SIMULTANEOUSLY A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO...AND COULD LAYOUT A BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL QUICKLY MODERATE FROM THE
60S TO PERHAPS LOW 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN DEPENDING ON A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT SUN COULD SEE TEMPS BACK IN THE 60S.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
CONCERNS FOR THE 0Z TAFS
- DEVELOPING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE TAF CYCLE
- CIGS LOWERING BACK TO LIFR IN THE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED IFR VSBY
- TIMING THE LIFTING OF CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
- CONTINUED ENE WINDS GREATER THAN 10 KT
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS
IN THE COMING HOURS. CHANGES IN THIS TAF CYCLE WERE TO INCLUDE
VCTS FOR THE CHICAGOLAND TERMINALS. RAP ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS
WILL SLIDE RIGHT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEN NOW AND 3Z. SINCE
INSTABILTY LEVELS ARE LOW HAVE JUST GONE VCTS AS COVERAGE AT THIS
POINT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD.
CIGS ARE HOLDING GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 1000 FT. AS RAIN FALLS INTO
THE MOIST LOW LAYERS EXPECT THAT CIGS WILL TREND TOWARD IFR.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUPER HIGH EXACTLY WHEN CIGS WILL FALL BELOW THE
800 FT THRESHOLD OF CONCERN FOR ORD ON THE CURRENT EAST FLOW
PLAYBOOK GIVEN THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM OVERHEAD BUT
LATEST TRENDS FROM THE LAMP/RAP/HRRR SUGGEST THE MAIN WINDOW WILL
BE BETWEEN 2Z-6Z...STARTING AS EARLY AS 1Z.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIT EAST AFTER 4Z...THOUGH CIGS APPEAR TO
HOLD AT LIFR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE A LIFTING TREND SHOULD
OCCUR. MOST GUIDANCE LIFTS CIGS ABOVE IFR LEVELS FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING RUSH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC TRANSITION TIMES
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ARE NOT SUPER HIGH. OTHERWISE MONDAY
SHOULD BE A BETTER DAY WITH CIGS LIFTING THROUGH MVFR TO
VFR...THOUGH EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT OR ABOVE 10 KT
MOST OF THE DAY.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
304 PM CDT
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE NEARSHORE
WATERS ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE TO DIMINSH AS WELL. STILL LOOKING AT
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FT TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
DIMINISHING TREND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS....A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL TRY TO INCREASE
THE GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
ALTHOUGH THE WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT AT
THE MOST...BUT NOT LINGER VERY LONG. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INFLUENCES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH LIGHTER
WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTH FROM CENTRAL
CANADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST
BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLIDE SOUTH AND INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND TURN
WINDS NORTHERLY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD.
SMALL CRAFT HAZARDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY FOR THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA NEARSHORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
256 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SHORT TERM...
146 PM CDT
THROUGH SUNDAY...
COOL/CLOUDY/MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN THIS AFTERNOON. IR IMAGERY HAD INITIALLY INDICATED
CLOUD TOPS WERE BETWEEN -60 TO -65 DEG C...BUT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN QUICKLY WARMING WITH TOPS NOW BETWEEN -50
TO -55 DEG C. IN ADDITION A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ARRIVED OVER NORTHERN IL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 10-15KT
AND GUSTS AROUND 20KT. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH A BROAD RIDGE POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO IT IS
LIKELY THAT THE LOW WILL STALL FROM LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STEADIER PRECIP TO SHIFT NORTH AND
END LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE BAGGY ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHALLOW MOISTURE FEED ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF A
LIFT WILL KEEP DROPLET SIZE MINIMAL AND LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY
DRIZZLE/LGT RAIN. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY NOT CHANGE
MUCH...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
WITH THE BROAD SFC RIDGE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH...THIS WILL KEEP
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM LIFTING TOO FAR NORTH TOWARDS THE
CWFA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE 500MB VORT MAX WILL BE
UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA TO STAR THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THIS
FEATURE PIVOTS NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL...FORCING WILL RETURN
WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF I-80 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST FLOW
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS AGAIN SUN AFTN IN THE
40S FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE LAKE...MEANWHILE FURTHER INLAND
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWFA THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LINGERING NEARBY
WITH TEMPS NEARING THE LOW 60S.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
243 PM CDT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY
LINGERING PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
NRN IL/NWRN IN WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEAK...BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
GENERALLY NELY FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION VERY
LIMITED AND BY THE TIME A WEAK ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA...ANY CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE MINIMAL AND...FOR NOW...WILL
ONLY CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR SERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA ON MONDAY. ALSO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION...WITH STRONG RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPING
OVER THE ERN CONUS. WHILE THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
DIFFERENCES IN THE FINER SCALE DETAILS...IN PARTICULAR THE SPEED OF
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. CONSEQUENTLY...THE TRACK OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING SEWD DOWN THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE IS DIFFERENT ENOUGH THAT THE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
LONGER TERM FORECAST RAPIDLY DETERIORATES WITH TIME FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SO...IN GENERAL...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
CHANGEABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEAK...ESPECIALLY TEMPERATURES. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE PERIODS OF
SEASONABLE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK...
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS LOW.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE ON CIGS AND VSBY REDUCTIONS. CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE AND RAIN CONTINUES TO FEED NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS BEEN
STEADILY OVERCOMING THE INITIAL DRY LAYER FROM THIS MORNING. CIGS
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING TOWARDS MVFR CONDS...BUT EXPECT CLOSER
TO 00Z CIGS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH IFR CONDS. THE STEADIER PRECIP
SHOULD BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE BETWEEN 00-02Z...WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING DZ OR LGT RA THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE EAST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 20-24KT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT PRECIP
COVERAGE SHOULD END WITH JUST PATCHY DZ REMAINING. THIS IS THE
TIME WHEN GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LEANING HEAVILY TOWARDS CIGS FALLING
FURTHER TOWARDS LIFR CONDS...WITH BASES BETWEEN 200-300FT AGL. IT
IS POSSIBLE A FEW SPOTS COULD GO FURTHER DOWN OVERNIGHT. HELPING
CIGS TO LOWER TONIGHT WILL BE THE LIGHTER WINDS THAT DEVELOP AS
THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER WIND DIRECTIONS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY AND
SPEEDS WILL BE BETWEEN 6-12KT.
AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY...WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO LIFT CIGS SLIGHTLY BACK TOWARDS IFR CONDS. BUT WITH
THE CONTINUED LACK OF STRONG MIXING AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
THE CONTINUED IFR/LOW END MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST WITH A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE AREA.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
255 PM CDT
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WHILE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY TRACKS TO THE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL IL/IN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL KEEP PERSISTENT
ELY-NELY FLOW OVER THE LAKE. WINDS AND WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE IL NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A MODERATE ELY-NELY PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY
QUIET CONDITIONS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN ON TUESDAY WHILE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES BY MIDWEEK AS THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SHOULD BRING STRENGTHENING NWLY-NLY FLOW TO
THE LAKE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
POINT...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE...BUT IF THE COLD
ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT ARE
STRONG ENOUGH...THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 1 AM
MONDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
256 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows 1004mb low over northern Missouri,
with warm front extending E/SE into southern Illinois. After being
nearly stationary for much of the day, the front is slowly lifting
northward and should eventually stall between the I-72 and I-70
corridors this evening. Most of the steady rain from earlier has
pushed into northern Illinois, leaving behind only isolated showers
across the KILX CWA this afternoon. Will be watching locations near
and south of the warm front where latest LAPS data is showing
SBCAPES of 1000-1500J/kg across Missouri into the Ozarks. Visible
satellite imagery is beginning to show the first signs of convective
development from just west of St. Louis southward into Arkansas.
HRRR suggests scattered thunderstorms will develop within this
corridor over the next couple of hours, then will spread E/NE into
portions of central Illinois tonight. Based on expected position of
front and latest HRRR forecast, think the best storm chances will
remain across the southern half of the CWA through the evening
hours, with any convection pushing further east into Indiana by
midnight. With surface low pressure tracking into the area and
winds becoming light/variable, think fog will become an issue later
tonight within the very moist low-level airmass. While MET/MAV
guidance only show minor reductions in visby, the HRRR is much more
bullish with the fog, particularly near the expected position of the
front. Have therefore included areas of fog in the forecast for all
locations north of I-70, with patchy fog further south into the warm
sector.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016
Morning upper air and satellite imagery showed spinning upper closed
low over northeast CO-southwest NE. Models in good agreement on
drifting it to the east overnight, which should provide upper
support for instability showers over region on Sunday. For
overnight, best instability in area of MO where CAPE values have
increased due to cloud break up this afternoon. Expect storm
development still possible in along and south of warm frontal zone,
then pcpn moving north into central IL region. Pcpn should remain
elevated, as cold dome north of front has been reinforced by
rainfall today, so only marginal risk of severe, with mainly hail
threat in a few stronger storms.
Upper system drifts through on Sunday, with scattered showers
triggered. Pcpn break Sunday night, then a second upper wave moves
through that will trigger slight chance of showers over parts of
area.
Upper flow becomes northwesterly into midweek, with a minor wave
moving through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Instability showers
again possible with cool air aloft with this wave. Temperatures
through next week with be generally cool and below normal.
Surface low expected to track northeast across the region this
evening, reaching northeast Indiana by midnight, although the GFS is
quite a bit slower with this scenario. General thought is that the
steadier showers will be quickly diminishing this evening, with a
good portion of the overnight hours dry. However, the remnants of
the upper low currently along the Colorado/Kansas border will move
across southern Iowa Sunday morning and across Illinois in the
afternoon, bringing another period of scattered showers to the area
by midday. Have included isolated thunder mention in the afternoon
most areas, as the trough moves overhead. Any lingering showers
should be out of the area around sunset.
Highly amplified pattern expected next week, as upper level ridging
over the western U.S. builds well into British Columbia and Alberta.
Longer range models showing some differences with the extent of the
corresponding upper trough over the eastern half of the CONUS, with
the ECMWF on the deeper side. This would trend toward significantly
cooler conditions over the Midwest during the second half of the
work week. By the end of the week, the upper pattern on both the GFS
and ECMWF models trends toward an omega block type configuration
which would linger the cooler air even longer. Have trended downward
on the temperatures for late in the week, although not as low as the
blended raw model guidance at this point.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016
Area of rain continues to lift steadily northward early this
afternoon, with latest radar imagery now showing it along/north of
the I-74 corridor. Despite an end to the steady rain, IFR ceilings
will persist for the next few hours before ceilings slowly rise
later this afternoon. As winds become more southerly rather than
easterly, HRRR shows ceilings rising into the MVFR category at
KSPI/KDEC/KCMI late this afternoon into the early evening. As low
pressure moves across central Illinois, the IFR ceilings are
expected to advect/develop back southward later this evening
through the overnight hours. In addition, with plenty of low-level
moisture in place and winds becoming light/variable in the
vicinity of the low, fog will be a good bet. Have included visbys
down to around 1/2sm at all sites accordingly. May see scattered
showers/thunder re-develop late this afternoon/evening as per
latest HRRR/NAM guidance, so have included VCTS at all terminals
between 22z and 04z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
226 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SHORT TERM...
146 PM CDT
THROUGH SUNDAY...
COOL/CLOUDY/MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN THIS AFTERNOON. IR IMAGERY HAD INITIALLY INDICATED
CLOUD TOPS WERE BETWEEN -60 TO -65 DEG C...BUT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN QUICKLY WARMING WITH TOPS NOW BETWEEN -50
TO -55 DEG C. IN ADDITION A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ARRIVED OVER NORTHERN IL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 10-15KT
AND GUSTS AROUND 20KT. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH A BROAD RIDGE POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO IT IS
LIKELY THAT THE LOW WILL STALL FROM LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STEADIER PRECIP TO SHIFT NORTH AND
END LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE BAGGY ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHALLOW MOISTURE FEED ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF A
LIFT WILL KEEP DROPLET SIZE MINIMAL AND LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY
DRIZZLE/LGT RAIN. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY NOT CHANGE
MUCH...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
WITH THE BROAD SFC RIDGE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH...THIS WILL KEEP
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM LIFTING TOO FAR NORTH TOWARDS THE
CWFA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE 500MB VORT MAX WILL BE
UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA TO STAR THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THIS
FEATURE PIVOTS NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL...FORCING WILL RETURN
WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF I-80 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST FLOW
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS AGAIN SUN AFTN IN THE
40S FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE LAKE...MEANWHILE FURTHER INLAND
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWFA THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LINGERING NEARBY
WITH TEMPS NEARING THE LOW 60S.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
320 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS TO START THE WEEK AND NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. REGIONALLY...SURFACE HIGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND AND LOW 50S
LAKEFRONT...THEN BY TUESDAY EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR THE 70 MARK.
MEANWHILE...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PORTIONS OF THE JET STREAM
TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AND WILL DISLODGE A COLD
AIRMASS TOWARDS THE REGION SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE AROUND MIDWEEK.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MAGNITUDE AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
AIRMASS WITH THE GFS BRINGING AROUND -5C H85 AIR SQUARELY INTO THE
MIDWEST BY EARLY THURSDAY...VERSUS THE ECMWF PROVIDING MORE OF A
GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR. THIS RESULTS IN QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY FOR TEMPERATURES BEYOND MIDWEEK THOUGH BELOW NORMAL IS
HEAVILY FAVORED...AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY
BE TOO WARM IF 00Z MODEL TRENDS HOLD. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT A SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OF RAIN IS
WARRANTED WITH FROPA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AND AS WE SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND AS WE HEAD INTO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE ON CIGS AND VSBY REDUCTIONS. CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE AND RAIN CONTINUES TO FEED NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS BEEN
STEADILY OVERCOMING THE INITIAL DRY LAYER FROM THIS MORNING. CIGS
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING TOWARDS MVFR CONDS...BUT EXPECT CLOSER
TO 00Z CIGS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH IFR CONDS. THE STEADIER PRECIP
SHOULD BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE BETWEEN 00-02Z...WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING DZ OR LGT RA THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE EAST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 20-24KT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT PRECIP
COVERAGE SHOULD END WITH JUST PATCHY DZ REMAINING. THIS IS THE
TIME WHEN GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LEANING HEAVILY TOWARDS CIGS FALLING
FURTHER TOWARDS LIFR CONDS...WITH BASES BETWEEN 200-300FT AGL. IT
IS POSSIBLE A FEW SPOTS COULD GO FURTHER DOWN OVERNIGHT. HELPING
CIGS TO LOWER TONIGHT WILL BE THE LIGHTER WINDS THAT DEVELOP AS
THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER WIND DIRECTIONS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY AND
SPEEDS WILL BE BETWEEN 6-12KT.
AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY...WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO LIFT CIGS SLIGHTLY BACK TOWARDS IFR CONDS. BUT WITH
THE CONTINUED LACK OF STRONG MIXING AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
THE CONTINUED IFR/LOW END MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST WITH A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE AREA.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
242 AM CDT
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LAKES
TODAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY BY EVENING...AND THEN
TRACKS TO THE EASTERN LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW FROM THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND TIGHTENS UP THE GRADIENT. EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT
20-25 KT WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN...LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY AS WINDS BACK MORE
NORTHERLY AND THE FETCH LENGTHENS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE LAKES MONDAY ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODESTLY STRONG NORTH WINDS APPEARS LIKELY MID-
WEEK.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 1 AM
MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
118 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016
15z/10am surface map shows 1004mb low just north of Kansas City,
with warm front extending E/SE into far southern Illinois. The low
will only make slow progress eastward today, so much of the KILX
CWA will remain in the cool sector of the system through the day.
12z NAM shows the low tracking to north of St. Louis by 00z, with
the warm front potentially reaching the I-72 corridor. Think this
may be too far north, given the widespread rain that is currently
occurring north of the boundary. Made some updates to the forecast
to lower high temps across the northern half of the KILX CWA and
to adjust hourly PoP trends. Primary rain shield will lift north
of the I-74 corridor by early afternoon, leaving behind only
scattered showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the
afternoon. Will maintain only chance PoPs late in the day, as
limited instability should keep areal coverage low. Severe threat
appears minimal at this time, and should be focused further
southwest across central/southern Missouri where better
destabilization is likely late this afternoon and evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016
An active weather day is setting up across central and southeast
Illinois for today. A vigorous, but weakening, upper-level low is
slowly approaching the Midwest from the central High Plains. To the
east of this circulation, a tropical moisture plume is surging
toward the area in deep southerly flow. Strong WAA/isentropic ascent
will work on this moisture plume and produce an area of showers with
embedded thunder across the forecast area, primarily this morning.
Rainfall coverage should diminish across the area this afternoon,
with additional development at least partially dictated by how far
north the surface warm front pushes. The afternoon position of this
warm front will help determine how much destabilization can occur
during peak diurnal heating. Model agreement in this regard is still
not great, although the forecast afternoon position of the front has
trended north in the past 24 hours in the latest consensus. The main
severe storm threat this afternoon still appears to be south of I-70
where modest instability (1000-2000 j/kg) and bulk shear (30-35 kts)
appear most likely to co-exist. A large N-S spread in high
temperatures appears likely today given the expected afternoon
position of the warm front. Expect daytime highs to range from the
mid 50s north around Galesburg & Lacon, to around 70 south of I-70.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016
Most of the forecast focus will be on the period through Sunday
night, as the current storm system works its way through the region.
Surface low expected to track northeast across the region this
evening, reaching northeast Indiana by midnight, although the GFS is
quite a bit slower with this scenario. General thought is that the
steadier showers will be quickly diminishing by this evening,
with a good portion of the overnight hours dry. However, the
remnants of the upper low currently along the Colorado/Kansas
border will move across southern Iowa Sunday morning and across
Illinois in the afternoon, bringing another period of scattered
showers to the area by midday. Have included isolated thunder
mention in the afternoon most areas, as the trough moves overhead.
Any lingering showers should be out of the area around sunset.
Highly amplified pattern expected next week, as upper level ridging
over the western U.S. builds well into British Columbia and Alberta.
Longer range models showing some differences with the extent of the
corresponding upper trough over the eastern half of the CONUS, with
the ECMWF on the deeper side. This would trend toward significantly
cooler conditions over the Midwest during the second half of the
work week. By the end of the week, the upper pattern on both the GFS
and ECMWF models trends toward an omega block type configuration
which would linger the cooler air even longer. Have trended downward
on the temperatures for late in the week, although not as low as the
blended raw model guidance at this point.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016
Area of rain continues to lift steadily northward early this
afternoon, with latest radar imagery now showing it along/north of
the I-74 corridor. Despite an end to the steady rain, IFR ceilings
will persist for the next few hours before ceilings slowly rise
later this afternoon. As winds become more southerly rather than
easterly, HRRR shows ceilings rising into the MVFR category at
KSPI/KDEC/KCMI late this afternoon into the early evening. As low
pressure moves across central Illinois, the IFR ceilings are
expected to advect/develop back southward later this evening
through the overnight hours. In addition, with plenty of low-level
moisture in place and winds becoming light/variable in the
vicinity of the low, fog will be a good bet. Have included visbys
down to around 1/2sm at all sites accordingly. May see scattered
showers/thunder re-develop late this afternoon/evening as per
latest HRRR/NAM guidance, so have included VCTS at all terminals
between 22z and 04z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1255 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
DRY SLOT IS NOW QUITE PROMINENT FROM MISSOURI INTO EASTERN IOWA.
TRENDS IN PRESSURE FALLS AND RADAR INDICATE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
WILL BE ENDING EARLIER. TRENDS IN THE RAP MODEL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE NEGATIVE THETA E LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW REDEVELOPMENT IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE FULLY RULED
OUT SOUTH OF I-80.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
06Z SFC DATA HAS AN INFERRED LOW NEAR KEMP IN EASTERN KANSAS. AN
INVERTED TROF RAN FROM THE LOW NORTHWEST TO THE KS/NE BORDER. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 30S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH 40S AND 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S WERE IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
THROUGH SUNRISE...A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE MAKING
SLOW PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTH OF I-80...PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A MUCH LARGER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN.
ON SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN
AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES 15 TO POSSIBLY 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 MAY STAY IN THE 40S.
BASED ON OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE PROFILES...ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF I-80 FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KOTM TO KGBG
LINE.
TONIGHT...THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SLOWLY FALL APART AS THE BETTER
FORCING SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE
EVENING WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE SHOWERY...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KOTM TO KGBG
LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER AND MOSTLY DRY AND TENDING CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH TOO
MOIST BL SUGGESTING ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY
TO TEND TO BE LIGHTER WITH LOWER POPS. THEN TYPICAL DIURNAL RANGE ISSUES
OF A BIT UNDERDONE WITH FAIR SKIES.
SUNDAY...HAVE CHANCE POPS AND COOL WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN
SHOWERS AS UPPER LOW PASSES. IF BL MOISTURE IS OVERDONE THEN HIGHS MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES TOO LOW WITH MOSTLY UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES
POSSIBLE. SOME CLEARING ALSO IN THE PM WITH HEATING AND LIGHT POPCORN
SHOWERS SUGGESTED FOR LATER SHIFTS. SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEARING WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS SUGGESTING MINS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.
PATCHY FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT MINS NEED TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES LOWER FOR CONSIDERATION OF HEADLINES. WILL PASS THIS ON AS ISSUE
FOR LATER SHIFTS. MINS SOUTH 1/3 TO 1/2 SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
40S. OVERALL...RAIN AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NW FLOW WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN
AIR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S OR NEAR NORMAL OVERALL. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER
30S SUGGESTED FOR THURSDAY MORNING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
IFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAL DECREASE TO SCTRD SHOWERS
BY LATE AFTERNOON AT BRL AND POSSIBLY MLI. ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF BRL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
EARLY EVENING. BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS AND
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND DECREASE SOME.
AFTER THE MORE ORGANIZED RAIN BAND PUSH NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT LOW CIGS/IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF
SITES ALONG WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL
BRING ANOTHER UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE WEST BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ..12..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
722 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
DRY SLOT IS NOW QUITE PROMINENT FROM MISSOURI INTO EASTERN IOWA.
TRENDS IN PRESSURE FALLS AND RADAR INDICATE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
WILL BE ENDING EARLIER. TRENDS IN THE RAP MODEL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE NEGATIVE THETA E LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW REDEVELOPMENT IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE FULLY RULED
OUT SOUTH OF I-80.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 506 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
TRENDS IN RADAR DATA SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ACROSS MISSOURI
THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH. RADAR RETURNS HAVE ALSO BEEN TRENDING
DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA.
A WHOLESALE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS BEING DONE BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS WHAT WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY TRENDS IN THE RAP. ALL
THUNDER HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THE MORNING HOURS. QPF HAS BEEN
LOWERED AND MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH. THE RAP IS SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO SHUT DOWN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR AS RAP TRENDS DO
SHOW NEGATIVE THETA E LAPSE RATES WHICH MAY PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SAID LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO ALLOW SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER TO OCCUR AS WELL.
AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
06Z SFC DATA HAS AN INFERRED LOW NEAR KEMP IN EASTERN KANSAS. AN
INVERTED TROF RAN FROM THE LOW NORTHWEST TO THE KS/NE BORDER. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 30S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH 40S AND 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S WERE IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
THROUGH SUNRISE...A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE MAKING
SLOW PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTH OF I-80...PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A MUCH LARGER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN.
ON SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN
AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES 15 TO POSSIBLY 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 MAY STAY IN THE 40S.
BASED ON OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE PROFILES...ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF I-80 FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KOTM TO KGBG
LINE.
TONIGHT...THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SLOWLY FALL APART AS THE BETTER
FORCING SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE
EVENING WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE SHOWERY...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KOTM TO KGBG
LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER AND MOSTLY DRY AND TENDING CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH TOO
MOIST BL SUGGESTING ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY
TO TEND TO BE LIGHTER WITH LOWER POPS. THEN TYPICAL DIURNAL RANGE ISSUES
OF A BIT UNDERDONE WITH FAIR SKIES.
SUNDAY...HAVE CHANCE POPS AND COOL WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN
SHOWERS AS UPPER LOW PASSES. IF BL MOISTURE IS OVERDONE THEN HIGHS MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES TOO LOW WITH MOSTLY UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES
POSSIBLE. SOME CLEARING ALSO IN THE PM WITH HEATING AND LIGHT POPCORN
SHOWERS SUGGESTED FOR LATER SHIFTS. SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEARING WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS SUGGESTING MINS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.
PATCHY FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT MINS NEED TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES LOWER FOR CONSIDERATION OF HEADLINES. WILL PASS THIS ON AS ISSUE
FOR LATER SHIFTS. MINS SOUTH 1/3 TO 1/2 SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
40S. OVERALL...RAIN AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NW FLOW WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN
AIR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S OR NEAR NORMAL OVERALL. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER
30S SUGGESTED FOR THURSDAY MORNING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH 18Z/30 AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN THE 12Z
TAFS...THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A TSRA THAT MAY APPROACH KBRL
18Z/30 TO 02Z/01. AFT 00Z/30 WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
631 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 506 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
TRENDS IN RADAR DATA SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ACROSS MISSOURI
THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH. RADAR RETURNS HAVE ALSO BEEN TRENDING
DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA.
A WHOLESALE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS BEING DONE BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS WHAT WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY TRENDS IN THE RAP. ALL
THUNDER HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THE MORNING HOURS. QPF HAS BEEN
LOWERED AND MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH. THE RAP IS SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO SHUT DOWN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR AS RAP TRENDS DO
SHOW NEGATIVE THETA E LAPSE RATES WHICH MAY PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SAID LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO ALLOW SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER TO OCCUR AS WELL.
AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
06Z SFC DATA HAS AN INFERRED LOW NEAR KEMP IN EASTERN KANSAS. AN
INVERTED TROF RAN FROM THE LOW NORTHWEST TO THE KS/NE BORDER. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 30S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH 40S AND 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S WERE IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
THROUGH SUNRISE...A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE MAKING
SLOW PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTH OF I-80...PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A MUCH LARGER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN.
ON SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN
AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES 15 TO POSSIBLY 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 MAY STAY IN THE 40S.
BASED ON OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE PROFILES...ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF I-80 FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KOTM TO KGBG
LINE.
TONIGHT...THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SLOWLY FALL APART AS THE BETTER
FORCING SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE
EVENING WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE SHOWERY...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KOTM TO KGBG
LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER AND MOSTLY DRY AND TENDING CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH TOO
MOIST BL SUGGESTING ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY
TO TEND TO BE LIGHTER WITH LOWER POPS. THEN TYPICAL DIURNAL RANGE ISSUES
OF A BIT UNDERDONE WITH FAIR SKIES.
SUNDAY...HAVE CHANCE POPS AND COOL WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN
SHOWERS AS UPPER LOW PASSES. IF BL MOISTURE IS OVERDONE THEN HIGHS MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES TOO LOW WITH MOSTLY UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES
POSSIBLE. SOME CLEARING ALSO IN THE PM WITH HEATING AND LIGHT POPCORN
SHOWERS SUGGESTED FOR LATER SHIFTS. SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEARING WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS SUGGESTING MINS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.
PATCHY FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT MINS NEED TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES LOWER FOR CONSIDERATION OF HEADLINES. WILL PASS THIS ON AS ISSUE
FOR LATER SHIFTS. MINS SOUTH 1/3 TO 1/2 SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
40S. OVERALL...RAIN AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NW FLOW WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN
AIR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S OR NEAR NORMAL OVERALL. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER
30S SUGGESTED FOR THURSDAY MORNING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH 18Z/30 AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN THE 12Z
TAFS...THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A TSRA THAT MAY APPROACH KBRL
18Z/30 TO 02Z/01. AFT 00Z/30 WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
513 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 506 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
TRENDS IN RADAR DATA SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ACROSS MISSOURI
THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH. RADAR RETURNS HAVE ALSO BEEN TRENDING
DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA.
A WHOLESALE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS BEING DONE BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS WHAT WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY TRENDS IN THE RAP. ALL
THUNDER HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THE MORNING HOURS. QPF HAS BEEN
LOWERED AND MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH. THE RAP IS SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO SHUT DOWN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR AS RAP TRENDS DO
SHOW NEGATIVE THETA E LAPSE RATES WHICH MAY PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SAID LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO ALLOW SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER TO OCCUR AS WELL.
AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
06Z SFC DATA HAS AN INFERRED LOW NEAR KEMP IN EASTERN KANSAS. AN
INVERTED TROF RAN FROM THE LOW NORTHWEST TO THE KS/NE BORDER. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 30S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH 40S AND 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S WERE IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
THROUGH SUNRISE...A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE MAKING
SLOW PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTH OF I-80...PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A MUCH LARGER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN.
ON SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN
AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES 15 TO POSSIBLY 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 MAY STAY IN THE 40S.
BASED ON OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE PROFILES...ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF I-80 FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KOTM TO KGBG
LINE.
TONIGHT...THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SLOWLY FALL APART AS THE BETTER
FORCING SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE
EVENING WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE SHOWERY...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KOTM TO KGBG
LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER AND MOSTLY DRY AND TENDING CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH TOO
MOIST BL SUGGESTING ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY
TO TEND TO BE LIGHTER WITH LOWER POPS. THEN TYPICAL DIURNAL RANGE ISSUES
OF A BIT UNDERDONE WITH FAIR SKIES.
SUNDAY...HAVE CHANCE POPS AND COOL WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN
SHOWERS AS UPPER LOW PASSES. IF BL MOISTURE IS OVERDONE THEN HIGHS MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES TOO LOW WITH MOSTLY UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES
POSSIBLE. SOME CLEARING ALSO IN THE PM WITH HEATING AND LIGHT POPCORN
SHOWERS SUGGESTED FOR LATER SHIFTS. SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEARING WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS SUGGESTING MINS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.
PATCHY FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT MINS NEED TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES LOWER FOR CONSIDERATION OF HEADLINES. WILL PASS THIS ON AS ISSUE
FOR LATER SHIFTS. MINS SOUTH 1/3 TO 1/2 SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
40S. OVERALL...RAIN AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NW FLOW WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN
AIR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S OR NEAR NORMAL OVERALL. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER
30S SUGGESTED FOR THURSDAY MORNING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
NARROW BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ARE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA...BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 08Z. MADE SOME ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS TO TIMING...WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1028 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Realigned pop/weather/QPF grids for the rest of tonight, to match
radar and HRRR trends. Rain showers will continue south and SE of
Dodge City for the next several hours, with light rainfall
amounts, before ending by sunrise. No other changes.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Light to moderate rain showers will continue across the southern
half of the CWA this evening spreading northeastward overnight.
This is due to a weak shortwave moving over the area. Otherwise
expect mostly cloudy skies through tonight. These showers are
expected to diminish by sunrise tomorrow with decreasing
cloudiness throughout the day tomorrow. Winds will generally be
from a northerly direction through tomorrow as a dome of high
pressure sits across the area. Below normal temperatures continue
with lows tonight ranging from the lower 30s across portions of
west central Kansas to lower 40s across portions of south central
Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to reach into the lower 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
An upper level lobe of energy will move southward across the
Northern Plains and into the Central Plains Monday night into
Tuesday. The only way this will affect the weather pattern at the
surface is to push the dome of high pressure south into the
Southern Plains. Cloud cover will continue to decrease during this
time frame with winds shifting to more of a northwest direction.
An upper level ridge will then build above the Rockies Tuesday
night through Thursday then shift eastward into the Plains
Thursday night into Friday. No significant weather is expected
during this time frame with mostly clear skies and dry conditions.
Meanwhile, a large upper level low is progged to move into the
Western United States Thursday and Friday then over the Four
Corners this weekend. Mid to upper level cloudiness will increase
as this feature approaches with winds shifting to the south.
Precipitation chances increase across the area this weekend with a
few storms possibly becoming severe Saturday afternoon and again
Sunday afternoon. Confidence is still low on the timing and
position of this system so future runs will be looked at closely.
A warming trend is expected through Friday with highs reaching
into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees by Friday. Lows look to
start out around 40 degrees Monday night then slowly rise into the
low to mid 50s by this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
MVFR cigs for the beginning of the TAF pd with improvement to VFR
around 02Z. Otherwise, mid level clouds will prevail through the pd.
Winds will be northerly 5-15 kt bcmg northwesterly overnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 38 63 41 69 / 30 10 10 10
GCK 38 63 41 69 / 20 10 0 0
EHA 37 61 41 69 / 60 10 10 10
LBL 39 62 41 70 / 60 10 10 10
HYS 39 62 40 70 / 20 10 0 0
P28 42 64 42 72 / 50 10 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
211 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT LOWER WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL KY...SOME MORE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
ENTER THE AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPPED THE POPS HEADING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. THIS AREA PROVES TO BE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT IN
ANTICIPATION OF SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE
RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER. THE QUESTION STILL REMAINS HEADING INTO
THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TO IF THIS RAINFALL HINDERS ANY
DEVELOPMENT ON INSTABILITY LATER FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. HAVE
ISSUED A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 756 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED TO BLEND EARLY MORNING OBS
INTO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRAVELS FROM
MISSOURI TO OHIO. IT WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR THE JKL FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD SUPPORT FOR PRECIP. THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY MORNING...TAKING THE BEST
SUPPORT FOR PRECIP WITH IT.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDER BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR
IS EXPECTED...BUT THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK. THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...
POSING THE BEST SHOT AT SEVERE WX THERE. EVEN SO...SPC HAS THEIR
SLIGHT RISK AREA JUST TOUCHING OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS WE EMERGE INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH WEAKER
VERTICAL FORCING. WHILE ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO GREATER
INSTABILITY...SHEAR WILL ALSO BE LESSENED. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING COVERAGE/PROBABILITY WITH THE WEAKER FORCING. IF
CONVECTION CAN FIRE...THE DEGREE OF EXPECTED INSTABILITY STILL
SUPPORTS A SEVERE THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
A TREND TOWARDS MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE SEEN AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TAKES A
DRAMATIC SHIFT. ALONG WITH THIS COOLER TREND...ON AND OFF RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THE PERIOD KICKS OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. AS THE FRONT PASSES
OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH THUNDER CHANCES
AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE OUR LAST
TASTE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR A BIT AS WE TRANSITION TO THE COOLER
PATTERN. BY MONDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...LEADING TO A DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRAG MOISTURE BACK TO THE
NORTH OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. PRECIPITATION
MAY HANG ON INTO TUESDAY...BUT MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON HOW
FAST PRECIPITATION EXITS. FOR NOW...WILL JUST HANG ONTO SOME LOW
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING WILL BRING A BREAK
FROM THE PRECIP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE FIRST
ROUND OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS INTO THE 40S AT NIGHT. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING EVEN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. AGAIN MODELS ARE DISAGREEING ON HOW MUCH
MOISTURE THE FRONT WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...BUT GIVEN THE GFS
ENSEMBLES AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION...WILL TREND POPS UP SLIGHTLY
FROM A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL SURGE SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SETTING
UP A CHILLY END TO THE WEEK. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT COULD DIP BACK
INTO THE 30S...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLDER 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION WERE
TO VERIFY WITH 850MB TEMPS REACHING -2C. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S...BUT THESE MAY BE GOING LOWER IN THE COMING
FORECAST PACKAGES. DID TREND HIGHS MUCH LOWER FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS LIKELY IN THE 50S OR COLDER FOR
HIGHS. WITH THE COOLER TEMPS WOULD ALSO COME LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY BE A CHANGE FROM THE PAST 2 TO 3 WEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THUS...WILL HAVE
CIGS AND VIS LOWERING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER THIS...IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z BEFORE A BREAK IN THE ACTION
TAKES PLACE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADEAGAIN
BY 18Z TOMORROW AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE PRODUCES MORE CONVECTION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST BEFORE
SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING AND INCREASING
UP TO 10 KNOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
121 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 905 AM EDT Sat Apr 30 2016
Adjusted pops this morning to account for the latest radar trends. A
band of moderate showers and a few thunderstorms associated with
strong moisture advection on the nose of a 50+ low-level jet
continues to push northeast through the region. Pops have been
upped to 100% to account for this slug of moisture. The latest
guidance suggests clouds/precip will linger in the northeastern CWA
through a good part of the afternoon, which will limit thermodynamic
recovery. It was discussed with SPC to trim the Slight Risk further
to the west closer to the I-65 corridor, but will wait and see how
these morning showers/storms play out and look at the 12Z guidance
before making adjustments.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Sat Apr 30 2016
The short term period will bring multiple chances for showers and
storms to the region, some of which could be strong. For today a low
pressure system will track from TX/AR into MO/IL. The warm front
associated with this system will lift north across the region today
with most of the region making it into the warm sector by late this
afternoon or early this evening.
Isentropic lift has brought some light showers to the region this
morning. This initial band of showers will continue to lift north
and scatter out. A band of more widespread showers and some
thunderstorms are then expected to lift north through the region
from around sunrise through mid to late morning. With fairly decent
coverage of showers expected with this band, will keep pops this
morning in the 70-90% range.
There should be a break in the precipitation as the warm front lifts
north through mid day. The question for this afternoon and evening
will then become how much the area can destabilize. Models do depict
decent shear profiles this afternoon as winds aloft increase.
However, cloud cover could limit destabilization, particularly
surface based instability. Still, thunderstorms are expected to
develop once again this afternoon. A few of them could become strong
to severe with hail and damaging winds. Think the best chance for
stronger storms will be across southwestern portions of central KY
as this area will get into the warm sector first. Storms should then
be decreasing through the early overnight hours.
The area will still be in the warm sector on Sunday. Instability
looks to be greater on Sunday. However, wind profiles will not be as
favorable for stronger storms as they are today. Still, there will
be a chance for some strong to marginally severe storms once again
Sunday with large hail and strong winds.
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sat Apr 30 2016
A low pressure system over the Great Lakes region will swing a cold
front through on Sunday night. This should bring an end to any
showers and storms from Sunday. However, will have to watch a wave
coming up from the south that has the potential to bring some rain
to east central KY on Monday. For now will keep the forecast dry
during the day Monday with some slight chances for precipitation
Monday night, but pops may eventually be needed during the day as
well. Monday will be cooler with highs only in the mid 60s to lower
70s. Tuesday looks to be dry as well with similar highs to Monday.
For the second half of the work week a deep trough looks to build
into the eastern CONUS. A cold front will bring the chance for some
rain on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Impulses wrapping around the
upper low cloud then bring some showers to the Bluegrass region for
the end of the week. Temperatures do look to be cooler for the end
of the week with highs in the mid 60s and possibly cooler than that
on Friday.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 119 PM EDT Sat Apr 30 2016
Deep moisture continues to pump into the region, resulting in a band
of showers and a few thunderstorms. The showers and isolated storms
should begin to taper off at BWG and SDF in the next couple of
hours, lasting at LEX until later this afternoon. However,
additional shower/storm activity is expected to develop over western
KY late this afternoon, moving into all sites this evening into the
early overnight hours. Confidence is not very high in this scenario
given the widespread rain/clouds limiting instability currently,
thus will go continue with just VCTS/TEMPO wording. Winds will be
out of the ESE through this evening, veering to more SSW overnight.
Any storms should clear out by Sunday morning, leaving VFR
conditions. However, additional thunderstorms will be possible
Sunday afternoon in the SDF planning period. Winds will increase out
of the SSW through the day to around 10-15 knots.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1215 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016
Large area of convection started moving into SEMO from the southwest
at around 05Z in association with a warm front swinging northeast
into the area. The warm front will continue moving northeast across
the rest of the area this morning. As this occurs, we expect this
large area of convection to continue to move southwest to northeast.
Of the many different QPF solutions to look at in the short term,
the HRRR and RAP seem to have the best handle on things for at
least today. After this batch of rain moves through this morning,
the challenge of what to do with this afternoon`s POPS remains.
We will be fully entrenched in the warm section by afternoon with a
cold front looming to our west. If we can get the morning convection
out of here in time...we will likely destabilize during the
afternoon with enough instability and increasing winds aloft to
warrant the possibility of strong to severe cells developing ahead
of the cold front. Right now, will maintain the chance type POPS for
the afternoon hours for the likelihood of convection developing with
the heat of the day. Not really knowing the degree of coverage at
this point, will not cross over into the likely category until the
evening hours when the front is actually forecast to move into the
region.
Then we turn to Sunday. We will still have the cold frontal
boundary in the area. Meanwhile, the upper trough associated with
this front will be moving eastward across the upper Midwest and a
decent upper level jet will be racing across parts of IL/IN during
that time. This could aid in the development of additional showers
and storms especially across southern IL/southwest IN and parts of
west KY on Sunday, some of which could be strong to possibly severe.
However, models are are not agreeing on exactly how this will play
out. The majority of the convection may end up being to our north.
We`ll see.
We continue to have a battle of the wills with model solutions on
Monday. The ECMWF still insists on painting QPF across our southern
areas with the approach of another upper trough, while the GFS
leaves us dry with any convection passing us by to the south and sfc
high pressure dominating. The timing of said QPF continues to flip
flop as well...Monday vs Monday night. But the latest SREF does have
a similar idea to the ECMWF. Due to challenges with neighboring
offices, will just leave slight chances in the south for Mon night
for now. In any event, we will see cooler temperatures for
Monday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016
Below average confidence in the long term due to model differences.
At the beginning of the period long range models are showing a huge
upper low just north of the Great Lakes region. Models show a decent
H5 short wave rotating around the southwest flank of the low diving
southeast across the region on Tuesday but due to a lack of moisture
it should remain dry. In the wake of the short wave, weak high
pressure should keep Tuesday night dry also.
Small precipitation chances might make their way into our far
northern counties on Wednesday as another shot of upper level energy
pushes a cold front southward toward our CWA. Rain chances are
slightly higher Wednesday night with the passage of said front but
should be confined to the eastern third of our CWA where deep layer
moisture will be greatest.
On Thursday models show the upper low splitting with a chunk of it
breaking off and moving toward the east coast and the other part
slowly filling as it moves due south. The projected track is
forecast to take the low across Ohio on Thursday, then a slight turn
to the southeast with the low over the Carolinas by weeks end. With
the passage of the upper low to our east on Thursday the GFS cranks
out slight precipitation chances over our far eastern counties while
the ECMWF keeps all precipitation east of our area, and most of the
GEFS ensemble members show no precip that day so will keep it dry
for now.
Thursday night and Friday should remain dry as the upper low moves
off to the southeast and surface high pressure overspreads the
region.
Temperatures will generally remain near normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016
Somewhat low confidence TAF forecast. Abundant high cloud cover
with a wide range of cigs below, from IFR KEVV area to few to no
clouds just above MVFR thresholds elsewhere. As the warm front
continues to lift north, cigs should improve overall. Convective
redevelopment possible about anywhere, though more showery east of
a KAJG-KPAH line through mid afternoon. Overnight, VCTS for
thunder chance, diminishing after 06z with light SSE winds.
VFR/MVFR cig conditions will have to be monitored. It`s possible
cigs could be lower. Will monitor guidance for late tonight.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
756 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 756 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED TO BLEND EARLY MORNING OBS
INTO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRAVELS FROM
MISSOURI TO OHIO. IT WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR THE JKL FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD SUPPORT FOR PRECIP. THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY MORNING...TAKING THE BEST
SUPPORT FOR PRECIP WITH IT.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDER BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR
IS EXPECTED...BUT THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK. THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...
POSING THE BEST SHOT AT SEVERE WX THERE. EVEN SO...SPC HAS THEIR
SLIGHT RISK AREA JUST TOUCHING OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS WE EMERGE INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH WEAKER
VERTICAL FORCING. WHILE ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO GREATER
INSTABILITY...SHEAR WILL ALSO BE LESSENED. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING COVERAGE/PROBABILITY WITH THE WEAKER FORCING. IF
CONVECTION CAN FIRE...THE DEGREE OF EXPECTED INSTABILITY STILL
SUPPORTS A SEVERE THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
A TREND TOWARDS MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE SEEN AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TAKES A
DRAMATIC SHIFT. ALONG WITH THIS COOLER TREND...ON AND OFF RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THE PERIOD KICKS OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. AS THE FRONT PASSES
OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH THUNDER CHANCES
AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE OUR LAST
TASTE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR A BIT AS WE TRANSITION TO THE COOLER
PATTERN. BY MONDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...LEADING TO A DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRAG MOISTURE BACK TO THE
NORTH OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. PRECIPITATION
MAY HANG ON INTO TUESDAY...BUT MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON HOW
FAST PRECIPITATION EXITS. FOR NOW...WILL JUST HANG ONTO SOME LOW
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING WILL BRING A BREAK
FROM THE PRECIP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE FIRST
ROUND OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS INTO THE 40S AT NIGHT. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING EVEN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. AGAIN MODELS ARE DISAGREEING ON HOW MUCH
MOISTURE THE FRONT WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...BUT GIVEN THE GFS
ENSEMBLES AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION...WILL TREND POPS UP SLIGHTLY
FROM A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL SURGE SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SETTING
UP A CHILLY END TO THE WEEK. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT COULD DIP BACK
INTO THE 30S...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLDER 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION WERE
TO VERIFY WITH 850MB TEMPS REACHING -2C. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S...BUT THESE MAY BE GOING LOWER IN THE COMING
FORECAST PACKAGES. DID TREND HIGHS MUCH LOWER FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS LIKELY IN THE 50S OR COLDER FOR
HIGHS. WITH THE COOLER TEMPS WOULD ALSO COME LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY BE A CHANGE FROM THE PAST 2 TO 3 WEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 756 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WHEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. UP UNTIL SHOWERS BECOME
PREVALENT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR. A DETERIORATION TO
GENERALLY MVFR IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY...BUT IN
REALITY...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
627 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016
Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016
Large area of convection started moving into SEMO from the southwest
at around 05Z in association with a warm front swinging northeast
into the area. The warm front will continue moving northeast across
the rest of the area this morning. As this occurs, we expect this
large area of convection to continue to move southwest to northeast.
Of the many different QPF solutions to look at in the short term,
the HRRR and RAP seem to have the best handle on things for at
least today. After this batch of rain moves through this morning,
the challenge of what to do with this afternoon`s POPS remains.
We will be fully entrenched in the warm section by afternoon with a
cold front looming to our west. If we can get the morning convection
out of here in time...we will likely destabilize during the
afternoon with enough instability and increasing winds aloft to
warrant the possibility of strong to severe cells developing ahead
of the cold front. Right now, will maintain the chance type POPS for
the afternoon hours for the likelihood of convection developing with
the heat of the day. Not really knowing the degree of coverage at
this point, will not cross over into the likely category until the
evening hours when the front is actually forecast to move into the
region.
Then we turn to Sunday. We will still have the cold frontal
boundary in the area. Meanwhile, the upper trough associated with
this front will be moving eastward across the upper Midwest and a
decent upper level jet will be racing across parts of IL/IN during
that time. This could aid in the development of additional showers
and storms especially across southern IL/southwest IN and parts of
west KY on Sunday, some of which could be strong to possibly severe.
However, models are are not agreeing on exactly how this will play
out. The majority of the convection may end up being to our north.
We`ll see.
We continue to have a battle of the wills with model solutions on
Monday. The ECMWF still insists on painting QPF across our southern
areas with the approach of another upper trough, while the GFS
leaves us dry with any convection passing us by to the south and sfc
high pressure dominating. The timing of said QPF continues to flip
flop as well...Monday vs Monday night. But the latest SREF does have
a similar idea to the ECMWF. Due to challenges with neighboring
offices, will just leave slight chances in the south for Mon night
for now. In any event, we will see cooler temperatures for
Monday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016
Below average confidence in the long term due to model differences.
At the beginning of the period long range models are showing a huge
upper low just north of the Great Lakes region. Models show a decent
H5 short wave rotating around the southwest flank of the low diving
southeast across the region on Tuesday but due to a lack of moisture
it should remain dry. In the wake of the short wave, weak high
pressure should keep Tuesday night dry also.
Small precipitation chances might make their way into our far
northern counties on Wednesday as another shot of upper level energy
pushes a cold front southward toward our CWA. Rain chances are
slightly higher Wednesday night with the passage of said front but
should be confined to the eastern third of our CWA where deep layer
moisture will be greatest.
On Thursday models show the upper low splitting with a chunk of it
breaking off and moving toward the east coast and the other part
slowly filling as it moves due south. The projected track is
forecast to take the low across Ohio on Thursday, then a slight turn
to the southeast with the low over the Carolinas by weeks end. With
the passage of the upper low to our east on Thursday the GFS cranks
out slight precipitation chances over our far eastern counties while
the ECMWF keeps all precipitation east of our area, and most of the
GEFS ensemble members show no precip that day so will keep it dry
for now.
Thursday night and Friday should remain dry as the upper low moves
off to the southeast and surface high pressure overspreads the
region.
Temperatures will generally remain near normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016
IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys and SHRA/TSRA this morning as a warm front
lifts across the area. VFR conditions through late afternoon, then
possibly MVFR vsbys with the re-development of showers and
thunderstorms after 00Z. Possible IFR cigs in the last six hours
of the period as low level moisture becomes trapped under a strong
nocturnal inversion.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CW
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
441 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRAVELS FROM
MISSOURI TO OHIO. IT WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR THE JKL FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD SUPPORT FOR PRECIP. THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY MORNING...TAKING THE BEST
SUPPORT FOR PRECIP WITH IT.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDER BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR
IS EXPECTED...BUT THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK. THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...
POSING THE BEST SHOT AT SEVERE WX THERE. EVEN SO...SPC HAS THEIR
SLIGHT RISK AREA JUST TOUCHING OR FORECAST AREA.
AS WE EMERGE INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH WEAKER
VERTICAL FORCING. WHILE ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO GREATER
INSTABILITY...SHEAR WILL ALSO BE LESSENED. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING COVERAGE/PROBABILITY WITH THE WEAKER FORCING. IF
CONVECTION CAN FIRE...THE DEGREE OF EXPECTED INSTABILITY STILL
SUPPORTS A SEVERE THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
A TREND TOWARDS MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE SEEN AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TAKES A
DRAMATIC SHIFT. ALONG WITH THIS COOLER TREND...ON AND OFF RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THE PERIOD KICKS OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. AS THE FRONT PASSES
OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH THUNDER CHANCES
AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE OUR LAST
TASTE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR A BIT AS WE TRANSITION TO THE COOLER
PATTERN. BY MONDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...LEADING TO A DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRAG MOISTURE BACK TO THE
NORTH OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. PRECIPITATION
MAY HANG ON INTO TUESDAY...BUT MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON HOW
FAST PRECIPITATION EXITS. FOR NOW...WILL JUST HANG ONTO SOME LOW
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING WILL BRING A BREAK
FROM THE PRECIP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE FIRST
ROUND OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS INTO THE 40S AT NIGHT. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING EVEN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. AGAIN MODELS ARE DISAGREEING ON HOW MUCH
MOISTURE THE FRONT WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...BUT GIVEN THE GFS
ENSEMBLES AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION...WILL TREND POPS UP SLIGHTLY
FROM A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL SURGE SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SETTING
UP A CHILLY END TO THE WEEK. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT COULD DIP BACK
INTO THE 30S...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLDER 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION WERE
TO VERIFY WITH 850MB TEMPS REACHING -2C. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S...BUT THESE MAY BE GOING LOWER IN THE COMING
FORECAST PACKAGES. DID TREND HIGHS MUCH LOWER FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS LIKELY IN THE 50S OR COLDER FOR
HIGHS. WITH THE COOLER TEMPS WOULD ALSO COME LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY BE A CHANGE FROM THE PAST 2 TO 3 WEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WHEN A FEW THUNDERSTORM CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. UP UNTIL SHOWERS
BECOME PREVALENT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR. A
DETERIORATION TO GENERALLY MVFR IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
IN REALITY...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
257 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016
Large area of convection started moving into SEMO from the southwest
at around 05Z in association with a warm front swinging northeast
into the area. The warm front will continue moving northeast across
the rest of the area this morning. As this occurs, we expect this
large area of convection to continue to move southwest to northeast.
Of the many different QPF solutions to look at in the short term,
the HRRR and RAP seem to have the best handle on things for at
least today. After this batch of rain moves through this morning,
the challenge of what to do with this afternoon`s POPS remains.
We will be fully entrenched in the warm section by afternoon with a
cold front looming to our west. If we can get the morning convection
out of here in time...we will likely destabilize during the
afternoon with enough instability and increasing winds aloft to
warrant the possibility of strong to severe cells developing ahead
of the cold front. Right now, will maintain the chance type POPS for
the afternoon hours for the likelihood of convection developing with
the heat of the day. Not really knowing the degree of coverage at
this point, will not cross over into the likely category until the
evening hours when the front is actually forecast to move into the
region.
Then we turn to Sunday. We will still have the cold frontal
boundary in the area. Meanwhile, the upper trough associated with
this front will be moving eastward across the upper Midwest and a
decent upper level jet will be racing across parts of IL/IN during
that time. This could aid in the development of additional showers
and storms especially across southern IL/southwest IN and parts of
west KY on Sunday, some of which could be strong to possibly severe.
However, models are are not agreeing on exactly how this will play
out. The majority of the convection may end up being to our north.
We`ll see.
We continue to have a battle of the wills with model solutions on
Monday. The ECMWF still insists on painting QPF across our southern
areas with the approach of another upper trough, while the GFS
leaves us dry with any convection passing us by to the south and sfc
high pressure dominating. The timing of said QPF continues to flip
flop as well...Monday vs Monday night. But the latest SREF does have
a similar idea to the ECMWF. Due to challenges with neighboring
offices, will just leave slight chances in the south for Mon night
for now. In any event, we will see cooler temperatures for
Monday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016
Below average confidence in the long term due to model differences.
At the beginning of the period long range models are showing a huge
upper low just north of the Great Lakes region. Models show a decent
H5 short wave rotating around the southwest flank of the low diving
southeast across the region on Tuesday but due to a lack of moisture
it should remain dry. In the wake of the short wave, weak high
pressure should keep Tuesday night dry also.
Small precipitation chances might make their way into our far
northern counties on Wednesday as another shot of upper level energy
pushes a cold front southward toward our CWA. Rain chances are
slightly higher Wednesday night with the passage of said front but
should be confined to the eastern third of our CWA where deep layer
moisture will be greatest.
On Thursday models show the upper low splitting with a chunk of it
breaking off and moving toward the east coast and the other part
slowly filling as it moves due south. The projected track is
forecast to take the low across Ohio on Thursday, then a slight turn
to the southeast with the low over the Carolinas by weeks end. With
the passage of the upper low to our east on Thursday the GFS cranks
out slight precipitation chances over our far eastern counties while
the ECMWF keeps all precipitation east of our area, and most of the
GEFS ensemble members show no precip that day so will keep it dry
for now.
Thursday night and Friday should remain dry as the upper low moves
off to the southeast and surface high pressure overspreads the
region.
Temperatures will generally remain near normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016
A large area of showers and most likely some embedded TS will move
northeast into the area overnight and will reach the northeast
TAFs by daybreak. A 4-6 hour window of MVFR or possibly IFR
conditions can be expected. Tried to time out the best period for
TS at all sites. Winds will be veering through midday and will end
up due south by midday as a warm front lifts to our north. Some
gustiness will be possible, but generally at or below 20kts.
Biggest uncertainty is in SHRA/TSRA development in the late
afternoon and evening. Plenty of instability should be available
if there is some focus for development. Thought a PROB30 for TS
was warranted, but this should be more scattered activity and the
impact will only be for an hour or so at any location.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1030 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...SEEING SOMEWHAT OF A REPRIEVE FROM RAINFALL WITH
JUST A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE INLAND AREA. WITH
THAT SAID...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS NOW BEEN CANCELLED. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
RETROGRADED SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING. WILL PLACE FEATURE FROM JUST
EAST OF SHREVEPORT TO THE LUFKIN AREA THEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST.
RADAR SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALIGNED ALONG
BOUNDARY. EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW GENERATED FROM EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION IS NOW WELL INTO THE GULF WATERS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
EVENING LCH SOUNDING COMING IN AT A HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF 1.87 INCHES. WITH HEFTY TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE AND EXTENT OF RAINS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EARLIER...LEAVING
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING WAS A FAIRLY SIMPLE CALL. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT WITH SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
CONFIDENCE OF HOW AND WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS
REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING AFOREMENTIONED
RETROGRADING OF INLAND BOUNDARY WILL CEASE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...WITH BOUNDARY THEN BEGINNING ITS SOUTHEAST TREK INTO AND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE MAIN FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...
ROUGH DAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO ACROSS THE
I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. FLOODING RAINS
CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP AND TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ESTIMATED BETWEEN 4 AND 11 INCHES SINCE YESTERDAY. A
BOUNDARY WAS NOTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WARM GULF MOISTURE
OVERRIDING THE BOUNDARY AND DROPPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WERE MUTED BY THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...THEREFORE...UNDER
THE RAINSHIELD TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR 70 I-10 AND SOUTH...WHILE
UP TO THE NORTH WHERE RAIN WAS ABSENT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FIXED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. IN ADDITION..A COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL FLOODING RAINS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AREA. THE AREA COULD STILL RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS. AVOID DRIVING IN THE AREA WHERE HEAVY
RAINS ARE CAUSING DANGEROUS FLOODING PROBLEMS. TURN AROUND DON`T
DROWN IF YOU COME UPON AN AREA OF WATER ON THE ROAD OF UNKNOWN
DEPTH.
THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT TO END THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. SCATTERED RAINS SHOULD END BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION. OTHERWISE...A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 68 77 59 75 / 60 70 30 10
LCH 69 80 62 77 / 70 70 40 20
LFT 71 81 65 78 / 60 70 50 30
BPT 69 80 61 78 / 70 70 40 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
052>055-073-074.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ041-052>054-
073-074.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
259>262.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ215-216.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ435-
450-452-455-470-472-475.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
831 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING INDICATES A VERY WARM AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT BELOW AN ELEVATED INVERSION AT 900 MB. ONSHORE FLOW
OFF THE GULF IS 20 TO 35 KTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC THROUGH THIS
LAYER. THE LCL IS LOW AT 400 FEET. DRIER AIR IS PRESENT ABOVE TO
ABOUT 550 MB. OVERALL PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT 1.43 INCHES. ANOTHER
ELEVATED INVERSION IS NEAR 630 MB... WHERE WINDS BEGIN TO TURN
MORE WESTERLY. CAPE IS RELATIVELY LONG AND SKINNY THROUGH THE
PROFILE WITH MOST UNSTABLE AT 2000 J/KG. WARM CLOUD LAYER IN A
STORM WOULD BE 14000 FT SO EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES AND FLASH
FLOODING IS A CONCERN AGAIN TODAY. SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR IS 35 KTS...
THAT IS ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WIND TO AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
AS WELL. WE EXPECT THIS ENVIRONMENT TO ALLOW THE MCS CURRENTLY AT
THE LA/MS BORDER TO CONTINUE EAST. THE SOUNDING FROM LAKE CHARLES
THIS MORNING WAS JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE LCH PROFILE HAS A BIT
MORE SHEAR AND ALSO SUPPORTS MCS MAINTENANCE. ONE LAST CONCERN FOR
TODAY WOULD BE THE LINE OF STORMS SLOWING IN SOUTHEAST LA AND
TRAINING ALONG A COASTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON... WHERE THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE MOISTURE POOLED AT 925 MB ALONG THE NORTHSHORE AND
THE MS GULF COAST.
KRAUTMANN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/
SHORT TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER POINTE COUPEE AND WEST
FELICIANA PARISHES THIS MORNING AND ARE PUSHING NORTH AND EAST.
CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE SHREVEPORT AREA AND STRETCHING TO
LUFKIN AND THEN NORTH OF HOUSTON IN EASTERN TEXAS.
OVERALL...I HAVE ELECTED NOT TO MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
UPDATE SENT OUT A FEW HOURS AGO BUT THERE ARE A FEW ADDITIONS. THE
MAIN ONE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE BEGINNING AT 12Z AND
RUNNING TO 00Z ON SUNDAY. THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL OF THE PROBABILITY
OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS HIGHER GENERALLY WEST OF I-55 AND NORTH OF
I-10 AND THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ADDED. OTHER
THAN THAT...INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES TODAY A BIT MORE IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW A SQUALL LINE
EXTENDING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE DEVELOPING AND MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA MUCH SOONER THAN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME LAST
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADDRESS ANY CHANGES AS NEEDED
AS THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF WHAT ULTIMATELY MOVES INTO THE AREA
IS PROVING DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE.
LONG TERM...
NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES TO BE ON TUESDAY WITH CLEARING
AND DRYING OUT OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINAL AREAS THIS MORNING.
CANNOT RULE OUT CEILINGS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER END OF THE IFR
CATEGORY...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES.
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. MESOSCALE MODELING HAS SLOWED DOWN TIMING FROM WHAT
THE EVENING SHIFT WAS LOOKING AT. WILL NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS ON
TIMING WITH 12Z TAF PACKAGE BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELING
SOLUTIONS. WILL TRY TO USE ABOUT A 2 HOUR WINDOW WHERE TSRA WILL BE
PREDOMINANT. BASED ON LATEST HRRR SOLUTION...CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR
MOST OR ALL TERMINALS BY 00Z SUNDAY. LIKELY TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS
AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.
MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
WHERE THEY ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE SOME WEAKENING OF
PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER TODAY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FRONT NOT LIKELY TO
PUSH THROUGH COASTAL WATERS UNTIL SOMETIME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING. MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 83 68 81 67 / 90 70 70 30
BTR 82 70 84 68 / 90 50 70 30
ASD 84 68 84 67 / 60 40 60 30
MSY 83 73 82 71 / 60 50 60 30
GPT 83 72 84 67 / 60 40 60 30
PQL 84 69 83 67 / 60 40 50 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
040-046>050-056>058-071-072.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
400 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SHORT TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER POINTE COUPEE AND WEST
FELICIANA PARISHES THIS MORNING AND ARE PUSHING NORTH AND EAST.
CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE SHREVEPORT AREA AND STRETCHING TO
LUFKIN AND THEN NORTH OF HOUSTON IN EASTERN TEXAS.
OVERALL...I HAVE ELECTED NOT TO MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
UPDATE SENT OUT A FEW HOURS AGO BUT THERE ARE A FEW ADDITIONS. THE
MAIN ONE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE BEGINNING AT 12Z AND
RUNNING TO 00Z ON SUNDAY. THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL OF THE PROBABILITY
OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS HIGHER GENERALLY WEST OF I-55 AND NORTH OF
I-10 AND THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ADDED. OTHER
THAN THAT...INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES TODAY A BIT MORE IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW A SQUALL LINE
EXTENDING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE DEVELOPING AND MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA MUCH SOONER THAN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME LAST
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADDRESS ANY CHANGES AS NEEDED
AS THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF WHAT ULTIMATELY MOVES INTO THE AREA
IS PROVING DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE.
.LONG TERM...
NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES TO BE ON TUESDAY WITH CLEARING
AND DRYING OUT OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINAL AREAS THIS MORNING.
CANNOT RULE OUT CEILINGS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER END OF THE IFR
CATEGORY...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES.
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. MESOSCALE MODELING HAS SLOWED DOWN TIMING FROM WHAT
THE EVENING SHIFT WAS LOOKING AT. WILL NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS ON
TIMING WITH 12Z TAF PACKAGE BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELING
SOLUTIONS. WILL TRY TO USE ABOUT A 2 HOUR WINDOW WHERE TSRA WILL BE
PREDOMINANT. BASED ON LATEST HRRR SOLUTION...CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR
MOST OR ALL TERMINALS BY 00Z SUNDAY. LIKELY TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS
AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
WHERE THEY ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE SOME WEAKENING OF
PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER TODAY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FRONT NOT LIKELY TO
PUSH THROUGH COASTAL WATERS UNTIL SOMETIME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING. MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 83 68 81 67 / 90 70 70 30
BTR 82 70 84 68 / 90 50 70 30
ASD 84 68 84 67 / 60 40 60 30
MSY 83 73 82 71 / 60 50 60 30
GPT 83 72 84 67 / 60 40 60 30
PQL 84 69 83 67 / 60 40 50 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>058-071-072.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR MSZ068>071.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT/LONG...98/SO
REST OF DISCUSSION...35
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
125 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
.UPDATE...
JUST SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE PORTIONS OF NE TX...SE OK AND
SW AR FROM SVR WATCH #128 ATTM. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS...TEMPS...DEWPT
AND RH GRIDS.
UPDATE ALREADY SENT...13.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/06Z TAFS...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE IMPACTS
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KTYR.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR/IFR DUE TO THE PRECIP.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 30/18Z ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT INTO THE
VFR AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. /09/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT MCS OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR/SE OK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXPAND
ENE THIS EVENING...WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING A SECOND
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION JUST TO THE W OVER ECNTRL TX JUST AHEAD
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN OK INTO CNTRL TX. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS/LATEST HRRR DEPICT THIS CONVECTION SLOWLY
MARCHING E TONIGHT...WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION E OF I-35
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING A PORTION OF THE ONGOING MCS OVER E TX/SW
AR. THE OVERALL HAIL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL HAVE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN
THE STRONG SHEAR STILL IN PLACE...HENCE THE TOR WATCH REPLACEMENT
WITH SVR WATCH #128 FOR ALL BUT CALDWELL/GRANT/LASALLE PARISHES IN
NCNTRL LA THROUGH 10Z.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...BUT GIVEN THE 00Z
GUIDANCE/HRRR...HAVE REMOVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING MUCH OF E
TX/SE OK/SW AR SATURDAY...AND REMOVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE REGION
IS QUICKLY DRY SLOTTED BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. THUS...THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH SHOULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE
EXPIRATION TIMES SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD END.
ZONE UPDATE/WATCH ISSUANCE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 82 67 82 63 / 70 50 20 50
MLU 81 68 83 65 / 70 70 30 40
DEQ 78 58 81 57 / 50 20 10 40
TXK 80 62 82 60 / 70 30 10 40
ELD 80 65 83 62 / 70 50 20 40
TYR 82 63 81 60 / 50 20 10 50
GGG 83 65 82 61 / 70 30 10 50
LFK 81 69 82 66 / 70 50 50 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>151.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.
&&
$$
13/09/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
105 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/06Z TAFS...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE IMPACTS
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KTYR.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR/IFR DUE TO THE PRECIP.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 30/18Z ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT INTO THE
VFR AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. /09/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT MCS OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR/SE OK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXPAND
ENE THIS EVENING...WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING A SECOND
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION JUST TO THE W OVER ECNTRL TX JUST AHEAD
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN OK INTO CNTRL TX. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS/LATEST HRRR DEPICT THIS CONVECTION SLOWLY
MARCHING E TONIGHT...WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION E OF I-35
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING A PORTION OF THE ONGOING MCS OVER E TX/SW
AR. THE OVERALL HAIL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL HAVE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN
THE STRONG SHEAR STILL IN PLACE...HENCE THE TOR WATCH REPLACEMENT
WITH SVR WATCH #128 FOR ALL BUT CALDWELL/GRANT/LASALLE PARISHES IN
NCNTRL LA THROUGH 10Z.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...BUT GIVEN THE 00Z
GUIDANCE/HRRR...HAVE REMOVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING MUCH OF E
TX/SE OK/SW AR SATURDAY...AND REMOVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE REGION
IS QUICKLY DRY SLOTTED BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. THUS...THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH SHOULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE
EXPIRATION TIMES SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD END.
ZONE UPDATE/WATCH ISSUANCE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 67 82 63 74 / 50 20 50 60
MLU 68 83 65 75 / 70 30 40 60
DEQ 58 81 57 71 / 20 10 40 50
TXK 62 82 60 71 / 30 10 40 50
ELD 65 83 62 73 / 50 20 40 60
TYR 63 81 60 75 / 20 10 50 50
GGG 65 82 61 75 / 30 10 50 60
LFK 69 82 66 78 / 50 50 50 60
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>151.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.
&&
$$
09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
905 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS THEN RETURNING UNTIL A MID-WEEK SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE
HEADING BACK ABOVE NORMAL MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RADAR IS QUIETING DOWN AS WE LOST THE DAYTIME HEATING. A FEW
STORMS CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE AS THEY ARE LARGELY
DRIVEN BY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN
INDIANA MOVES EAST. HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
SUPPORT A BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NE OHIO AND NW PA DURING
THE PRE DAWN HOURS /6-12Z/. FARTHER SOUTH HRRR DOES NOT PREDICT A
LOT OF QPF GIVEN LARGER PROXIMITY AWAY FROM THE SURFACE CYCLONE.
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT TRENDS BETWEEN NOW AND 6Z WITH DRY
WEATHER NORTH OF I-80 AND HIGH POPS ALONG THE I-68 REGION.
A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS BECOMING LESS
PRONOUNCE AS THE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH AWAITING THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETURNED TO OUR NORTHERN STRETCH OF
COUNTIES...WHICH WILL PERSIST UNTIL WINDS CAN VEER AROUND
OVERNIGHT.
CONSENSUS SHORT GUIDANCE WAS USED TO BUILD OUT HOURLY
TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND MINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AROUND
SUNRISE...AND SHOULD RACE INTO NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING. WHILE RAIN
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
LOW...A WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. SOME
SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY BY
TUESDAY EVENING. THE NEXT GAP IN RAIN WILL BE SHORT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DROP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE NAM IS AN
OUTLIER TO THE WEST...AND HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. THIS WILL YIELD INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS IN ALL LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD. WEATHER WILL REMAIN COOL...CLOUDY...AND
WET WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE THE LOW DRIFTS
EAST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF I-70. THE ONLY
TERMINAL THAT COULD BE AFFECTED BY A STORM WOULD BE MGW BEFORE
2Z...OTHERWISE THE REST ARE IN THE CLEAR FOR THE TIME BEING.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH NE OHIO AND NW PA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOST IF NOT ALL
TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH FOR PREVAILING SHOWERS AT LBE-
PIT- ZZV AS IT IS FOR FKL AND DUJ...SO OPTED FOR VCSH. CIGS WILL
BE TEETERING ON IFR/MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE
WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO IFR AT FKL AND DUJ THEN 1KFT CIGS AT THE
OTHER TERMINALS BETWEEN 8Z- 15Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
SHORT WINDOW OF SUB THOUSAND FOOT CLOUDS AT ANY AIRPORT DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS. WINDS WILL GO WEST THEN NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
IN WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL KEEP LOW END VFR CLOUDS
MOST OF THE DAY.
.OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS IS LIKELY WITH A WEDNESDAY COLD
FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...98
AVIATION...98
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
929 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.UPDATE...
THE IMPENDING WEATHER EPISODE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE (STILL A CLOSED CIRCULATION
ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) THAT WILL OPEN AND TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 03-12Z TONIGHT.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF ITEMS WORTH DISCUSSION. THE FIRST IS THE
AMOUNT/VIGOR OF THUNDERSTORM/SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SIFTING THROUGH MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT LOCATED NEAR INDIANAPOLIS EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO. ITS PROBABLY NOT A LOT...BUT THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY
BALANCE HAS BEEN FAVORABLE. NWP SUGGESTS THAT SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FROM 00-06Z IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW
STATIC STABILITY IN THE MIDLEVELS...WITH 850-500MB LAPSE RATES
INCREASING TO OR IN EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z. NOT
OVERLY TRUSTWORTHY OF THE 18Z NAM...AS IT IS SHOWING SOME PECULIAR
REDISTRIBUTION IN THE MASS FIELDS IN THE 3 HOURLY OUTPUT. THE NET
RESULT BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS AND THE FORECASTED MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR FOR THE DETROIT METRO
AREA SOUTHWARD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ACTIVITY
REMAINING ELEVATED WITH NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE 2ND ITEM TO DISCUSS IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IDEA IS ASCERTAINED WITH THE
LOOK OF AND AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS...VERY SMALL
CURVATURE/RADIUS TO THE DEFORMATION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL LIKELY STREAK DIRECTLY ACROSS IN SOME
CONFIGURATION DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN DTX CWA. SO...WITH THE
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A REASONABLE DURATION OF LENGTH...COULD
SEE VERY QUICK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1.0 INCH
POSSIBLE. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO EXCEED 1.0 INCH LATE THIS
EVENING. LATEST RAP AND HRRR...SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AXIS MAY OCCUR DIRECTLY SOUTH OF MICHIGAN BORDER OVER OHIO.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT IT WILL REMAIN THAT FAR
SOUTH. THERE IS TYPICALLY ERROR IN WHAT PORTION OF THE ELEVATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FIRE. PREFER SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THIS
INSTANCE...DIRECTLY IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST/SHARPEST OF DIRECT
DCVA.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 804 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER IA/WI/IL WILL EJECT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE RESPONSE AND
PRECIPITATION EPISODE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THE BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAME TO FRUITION HERE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE CLOUD DECK FOR ALL AREAS HAS REMAINED OPAQUE. WARM ADVECTION AND
MASS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR LATE
EVENING WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CIG HEIGHTS. THE OVERALL DURATION OF
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL MAY BE AROUND 6 TO 8 HOURS
IN LENGTH ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR. ALONG THE
NORTHERN FRINGES AT KFNT/KMBS...THERE WILL BE LESS RAIN BUT IFR/LIFR
AND DRIZZLE IS STILL EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT OVERCAST
ON MONDAY...BUT MODESTLY STRONGER ADVECTIONS OCCURRING POST UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ENERGY SUPPORTS A MORE AGGRESSIVE EVOLUTION TO
MVFR/VFR HEIGHTS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW...THE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WILL LEAD BACK INTO IFR THIS
EVENING AS DEEP COLUMN SATURATION/WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT LIFR GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT
OF AMBIENT MOISTURE. THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL IN SUPPORT FOR MVFR
CIGS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT
* LOW FOR CIG AOB 200 FT 6-12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 334 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AND NORTHEAST FLOW OFF
THE LAKES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE ONLY A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO SPILL OVER THE AREA.
UPPER LOW OVER NE/IA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT...OPENING AS IT BEGINS
TO PHASE WITH THE BAGGY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA. UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
AND THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE LOW CENTER
LOOKING TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVER OHIO. SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE REGION...ELEVATED PORTIONS OF WHICH
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG
THE FRONT LOOKS TO INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT...WITH FORCING ALSO GETTING A BOOST FROM LEFT EXIT REGION
FORCING FROM A JET STREAK TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PROMPT A NICE
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF RAIN TONIGHT...WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION AS
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO 7-8 C/KM. HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG/SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR...CLOSER TO WHERE A
WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE FEEDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. DEFORMATION AREA AND ASSOCIATED RAIN LOOK TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA BY SUNRISE AS THE LOW QUICKLY SCOOTS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND
BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS. COOLER AIR SPILLING IN
ALOFT BEHIND THE LOW...ENHANCED BY ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSING FROM
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...WILL PROMOTE STEEP LAPSE RATES UP THROUGH
ABOUT 750MB AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
INCONSISTENT WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT UP THROUGH AN
INVERSION POSITIONED JUST ABOVE THIS LEVEL...WITH NAM MUCH MORE
MOIST THAN GFS. NAM WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME MORNING DRIZZLE AS SOME DRYING OCCURS IN
THE MID LEVELS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING RAIN MENTION AND STICK WITH
JUST CLOUDS BASED ON GFS/EURO...AS NAM SOMETIMES CARRIES A BIAS WITH
TOO MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WARMING WILL BE TEMPERED BY SOME CLOUD
COVER (ESPECIALLY SOUTH) AND NORTH FLOW...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO REACH THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MIXING ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH SHOULD BRING NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH
MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 60S.
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO WORK DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT PER LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
CUTOFF UPPER LOW PROGGED BY GLOBAL MODELS TO DRIFT OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER HEIGHTS LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
RESULT WILL BE COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LEADING TO A SOLID WARMING AND
DRYING TREND.
MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO
TONIGHT...GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT SOME CHANNELING ACROSS SAGINAW BAY
TO SUPPORT GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS INTO THE EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT TOMORROW WILL SUPPORT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT STILL 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
HYDROLOGY...
A COMPACT AND FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH AROUND HALF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M59 CORRIDOR. THE BULK OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM LOCAL TIME. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED...WITH
JUST MODEST RISE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS...ALONG WITH PONDING/STANDING
WATER IN NORMALLY PRONE LOW LYING AREAS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......CB
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...HLO/DT
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
726 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A REX BLOCK OVER WRN NOAM
RESULTING IN WEAK NW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING N TO NE
WINDS INTO MOST OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WAS WEAK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. VIS LOOP
SHOWED CU OVER THE INLAND WEST AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREA IN
THE E HALF.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO UPPER MI WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WEST
AND TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER THE REST OF THE CWA.
MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHRTWV
REMAINING WELL TO THE SE OVER THE ERN LAKES. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL
AGAIN ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR
BREEZE REACHING THE FARTHEST INLAND. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MI 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH CU DEVELPMENT SIMILAR TO TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
THROUGH THE WEEK...RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF VARYING
AMPLITUDE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF CANADA WITH
HEIGHT ANOMALIES PEAKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL IN
TURN FAVOR TROFFING OVER ERN N AMERICA WITH THE TROF REACHING PEAK
AMPLITUDE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...ENERGY
APPROACHING THE W COAST WILL SPLIT...RESULTING IN DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER SW CONUS CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW LATER THIS WEEK. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE UPPER LAKES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PEAKING WRN CANADA RIDGE...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE FORCED
TO DROP FARTHER S INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE/WED WITH COLD
FROPA OCCURRING TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS FROPA BRINGS THE BEST CHC OF
PCPN THIS WEEK. WITH DECENT FORCING...POPS AT LEAST INTO THE HIGH
CHC TO LOW LIKELY CATEGORY APPEAR REASONABLE FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING.
DECENT FORCING/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND A LITTLE
INSTABILITY WITH FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. DEPENDING ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE MID LEVEL TROF
BECOMES...SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY LINGER INTO WED. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
RUNS YESTERDAY TRENDED TOWARD MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPMENT CLOSE ENOUGH
TO UPPER MI TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PCPN ON WED. SINCE THEN...
GUIDANCE HAS WAIVERED ON THIS IDEA. WILL LARGELY MAINTAIN CONTINUITY
WITH PREVIOUS FCST IN SHOWING SCHC POPS (CHC ACROSS THE NCNTRL AND
E) INTO WED MORNING. IF THERE IS ANY PCPN...MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AS THERMAL TROF WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-4C WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. 00Z/12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE WRN CANADA RIDGE WILL PASS
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO SAT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES. ALTHOUGH THIS A NEW DEVELOPMENT WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE 12Z RUNS BACK UP THE POSSIBILITY. AS A RESULT..SCHC
TO LOW CHC POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR SAT.
AS FOR TEMPS...THE PATTERN THIS WEEK FAVORS NORMAL TO BLO NORMAL
TEMPS FOR UPPER MI ON THE MAJORITY OF DAYS. NIGHTTIME MINS WILL
STILL BE DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE INTERIOR ON AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS. TUE WILL BE ONE OF THE WARMER DAYS AS W TO SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WHICH ARRIVES IN
THE AFTN/EVENING. WARMTH ON TUE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT/CLOUD COVER AND SHRA...BUT RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S. MUCH COOLER WEATHER...
ESPECIALLY NOTABLE CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FOLLOW FOR WED
UNDER BRISK N WINDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK SOLIDLY BLO NORMAL WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR NO HIGHER THAN AROUND 40F. EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WITH 850MB THERMAL TROF OVER THE AREA...
FURTHER SUPPORTING COOL CONDITIONS. MODERATION WILL OCCUR THU WITH
MORE WARMING FRI AND POSSIBLY ON INTO SAT...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. RECENT
GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE INDICATED THAT FRI AND/OR SAT COULD BE QUITE
WARM WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. WILL TURN COOLER AGAIN
FOR SUN. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...NAEFS OUTLOOKS ARE SUGGESTING A
TREND TOWARD AN OVERALL SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMP REGIME DURING THE
SECOND WEEK OF MAY.
EVEN IF MOST AREAS SEE SOME PCPN TUE...AMOUNTS WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT
AND WON`T REALLY AFFECT WHAT IS BECOMING AN EXTENDED DRY SPELL FOR
UPPER MI. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY COOL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT...WILL KEEP GREENUP SLOW. THUS...FIRE WX WILL BE AN ISSUE AT
TIMES FOR THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. THIS WEEK...TUE STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
DAY OF MOST CONCERN AS IT SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY WITH POTENTIAL OF
BREEZY W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS/-SHRA ARRIVE SOONER...FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE EASED. IF THE
COLD FRONT MATERIALIZES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER DAY WITH ELEVATED
FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL OCCUR ON THE DAY PRIOR TO ITS PASSAGE OR THE
DAY OF FROPA...EITHER FRI OR SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 20 KNOTS. WSW
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1029 AM CDT SAT APRIL 30 2016
.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...SHOWED AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW TO
MIDLEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN KS. IT WAS SENDING SHORTWAVES IN
THE SOUTHERN STREAM INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET WAS NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH WAS
PROVIDING UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE WEST. AREA SNDINGS SHOW SOME
LAPSE RATES IN THE MIDLEVELS...WHICH WERE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
YESTERDAY. THERE WAS ALSO DESCENT LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF AROUND 35-40
KNOTS. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE DELTA
REGION. HRRR AND AREA OBS SHOWS THAT A "WAKE LOW" MAY BE DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE RAIN OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SITE ELD AND LLQ HAD OF
AROUND 35 KNOTS OF WIND. THE HRRR BRINGS THE WAKE LOW INTO THE
REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LINE. SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
THAT. THERE HAVE BEEN WIND REPORTS FROM AR. OTHERWISE DESPITE THE
LULL IN THE CONVECTION EXPECT THE AIRMASS INSTABILITY TO DESTABILIZE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR STILL BRINGS AN ORGANIZED LINE
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
MAKE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST AND WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. SO WILL KEEP OUR PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISKS FOR
TODAY./17/
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
GLH...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TO MOVE INTO GWO BEFORE NOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REMAINING SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO A MILE OR
LESS. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA ALSO...MVFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
IN ADDITION...RAPID ONSET GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR GLH
BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 40KTS OR HIGHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&
./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...452 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THIS WEEKEND)...A RATHER WET AND STORMY WEEKEND IS ON
TAP AS A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDS. EARLY THIS
MORNING, A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY/PURCHASE REGION SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX INTO
SE TEXAS. THIS WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE SWINGING INTO THE MIDSOUTH. THE MOST
VIGOROUS CONVECTION ALONG THE LINE IS ONGOING OVER EAST TX AND WEST
LA, AND THIS IS WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS OUR
AREA LATER ON TODAY AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD.
CURRENT TRENDS/CONSENSUS AMONG HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO REACH OUR NE LA PARISHES AROUND MID-MORNING. WITH THIS
TIME FRAME STILL BEING ON THE DOWNSIDE OF THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY
CURVE, THE STORMS ARE GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS ACTIVE AT
THAT POINT. HOWEVER, THROUGH THE DAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE LINE, STRENGTHENING/REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES EASTWARD. HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS TO SPREAD FARTHER NORTH ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AS
THERE IS MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR DAYTIME HEATING. THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE
IN STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS ACROSS THE DELTA, WHERE RAIN WILL LIKELY
BEGIN EARLY IN THE DAY WITH LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR DESTABILIZATION.
WITH THIS IN MIND, FOR GRAPHICS/HWO THE ELEVATED WILL BE REMOVED IN
THE WEST AND THE LIMITED WILL BE EXPANDED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. IF IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT THE LINE WILL BE MORE ACTIVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AN ELEVATED THREAT MAY NEED TO
BE INTRODUCED LATER TODAY. TIMING WILL ALSO BE BUMPED UP, AS THE
LINE MAY BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORMS THAT PUSH THROUGH TODAY. SOME REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT, BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS MOST OF THAT WILL REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA IN ARKANSAS. THE FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY, WITH REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT
INSOLATION, INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/
SEVERE CONVECTION TOMORROW, BUT FORCING AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
MUCH WEAKER, MAKING THIS THREAT MORE UNCERTAIN. WITH THAT IN MIND, NO
THREAT WILL BE INTRODUCED IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE SHIFT IN EXPECTATIONS FROM THE AXIS OF MORE ACTIVE STORMS
AND HEAVY RAIN BEING OVER THE DELTA FARTHER SOUTH TO ACROSS CENTRAL
LA AND SOUTH MS, THAT ALSO SHIFTS EXPECTATIONS FOR THE FLOODING
THREAT. THOUGH MUCH OF THE DELTA MAY MISS OUT ON THE HEAVIEST RAIN,
PRECIP IS JUST BEGINNING TO ARRIVE IN THAT AREA, AND WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE LINE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THUS, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THAT AREA, BUT WE WILL LOWER
EXPECTED AMOUNTS. PERHAPS OF GREATER CONCERN IS AREAS FARTHER SOUTH
FROM CENTRAL LA ACROSS SOUTH MS. IN THESE AREAS, THERE WILL ALSO BE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. IF MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION, LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MAKE
AN EASTWARD EXTENSION TO THE WATCH INTO THE PINE BELT. FOR NOW, WE
WILL EXTEND A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE HWO
INTO SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. /DL/
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)...THE PERIOD OF ACTIVE
WEATHER WE ARE CURRENTLY IN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
MONDAY MORNING...ONE WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPART
WITH ANOTHER ON OUR DOORSTEP TO THE WEST. RAIN AND STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE ARKLAMISS REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS SHOULD BE THE
FINAL ROUND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL COME AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT
ACTUALLY MOVING INTO THE REGION SLOWLY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AS WELL BY WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN GIVEN HOWEVER MUCH
RAIN MAY FALL PRECEDING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
TRICKY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HAMPER MUCH
WARMING AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO MAKE FOR A
VARIATION IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE AREA.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AND THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO SWINGS THROUGH...
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY...THIS WILL LEAVE OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WE SHOULD SEE READINGS
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...SHOULD BE
SOME NICE WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND ONCE WE GET THROUGH SOME OF THE WET WEATHER IN THE SHORTER
TERM. /28/
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A LINE OF
SHRA/TSRA PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/
AFTERNOON HOURS. BRIEF VISBY CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
+RA, AND 50 KT WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE ALONG WITH
SMALL HAIL. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT, WITH MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT TO NW AT SITES IN THE DELTA SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. /DL/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 79 67 82 65 / 94 59 53 49
MERIDIAN 82 66 81 64 / 86 43 68 27
VICKSBURG 79 69 83 66 / 94 49 43 58
HATTIESBURG 82 66 82 66 / 95 55 70 29
NATCHEZ 80 67 81 66 / 95 59 62 54
GREENVILLE 79 66 82 63 / 60 30 23 50
GREENWOOD 78 66 82 63 / 57 40 29 49
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-
035-040-041.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR MSZ026>029-032-036-037-042>044-047>050-053>055-
059>063.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR LAZ024>026.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
17/DL/28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
935 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016
.UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WITH
THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. UPPER LOW OVER THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER
CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOME ENERGY AND CLOUDS NORTHWEST ACROSS
WYOMING INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. THIS IS BATTLING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...RISING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE THAT ARE MOVING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS
IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WHERE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHERN ROSEBUD...CUSTER AND FALLON
COUNTIES. A COOL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE OCCURRING AS WELL ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS.
AS A RESULT...HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
THESE AREAS THAT MAY SEE A BIT OF SUN.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
WHERE SUNSHINE OCCURS...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE COUNTERACTED A BIT
BETTER WITH RISING HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE AREA WHICH WAS NOT CASE
ON FRIDAY. HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY. OTHER THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND
TEMPERATURES NO OTHER UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. HOOLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN KS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 08Z
WAS WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN AND SNOW
WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE SD/NE BORDER AS WELL AS OVER WY. MODELS
DRIFT THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY NE TODAY AND ONLY WEAK ENERGY WILL BE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HEIGHTS ACTUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE N AS A REX BLOCK SETS UP. MODELS HAD MOISTURE OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY...RETREATING SW THROUGH THE DAY.
LIGHT E UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
COLUMN. DUE TO THE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...THE MODELS
DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING FROM KBIL W AND S. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY CLOSEST TO THE MOISTURE
SOURCE. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM KBIL W AND S THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...MADE ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO THE INHERITED
POPS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SHERIDAN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
THE UPPER RIDGE KEEPS BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...PUSHING THE
MOISTURE S OF THE AREA. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE EVENING W AND S OF
KBIL...THEN HAD SOME LOW LINGERING MOUNTAIN POPS OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING QUIET AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE
AREA ON SUN. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE SUN NIGHT. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PATTERN BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. DETAILS ON IMPACTS FROM THIS
CHANGE ARE UNCERTAIN AS GFS KEEPS THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF ENERGY
WELL DEFLECTED TO THE NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF ALLOWS AN INTERACTION
WHICH COULD BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO EASTERN MONTANA. EITHER WAY
PRETTY DISTINCT CHANGE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER AND THEN BY NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO
MUCH COOLER AND UNSETTLED. BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BIG
HORN MOUNTAINS POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSHR. ALL FOOTHILLS WILL BE
FAVORED FOR MVFR CEILINGS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED...INCLUDING KSHR AND KLVM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEARING SKIES MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY. FRIEDERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053 036/060 038/065 040/070 044/073 046/075 047/072
2/W 10/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 11/B 12/W
LVM 050 032/058 031/065 036/069 038/073 040/074 042/070
3/W 20/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 11/B 22/W
HDN 056 034/062 035/066 037/071 039/074 041/076 043/074
2/W 10/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 11/B 12/W
MLS 059 036/063 038/068 040/072 043/075 047/076 048/073
1/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B
4BQ 054 032/060 034/064 037/070 039/074 042/075 044/073
2/W 10/U 00/U 01/U 01/U 11/U 11/B
BHK 057 032/062 035/066 037/070 040/072 042/072 043/069
1/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B
SHR 049 031/057 032/061 034/065 036/069 038/072 040/070
6/W 30/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 11/B 12/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
940 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM AND HUMID FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WILL PERSIST INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY... AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM SUNDAY...
ONE LONE MODEST CELL PASSED OVER THE TRIAD RECENTLY... BUT OTHERWISE
THE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE SRN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE APPROACHED BUT FAILED TO
SURVIVE THE TRIP INTO THE FORECAST AREA DESPITE THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE (PW OF 150-175% OF NORMAL). WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING (FOSTERING THE GROWTH IN CINH OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS) AND
IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT (WITH
FAIRLY FLAT WSW MID LEVEL FLOW AND NO DISTINCT LOW LEVEL JETTING)...
EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL NC FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD BE SEEING A SLIGHT
RISE IN PW OVERNIGHT ACCORDING TO THE RAP IN CONJUNCTION WITH
PASSAGE OF A WAVE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WV/VA/MD (PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EVENING`S SEVERE WEATHER OVER WV/WRN VA)... AND
THIS MAY BRUSH OVER THE FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE CWA. IN ADDITION...
POOLING OF HIGHER PW OVER THE SE CWA AS IS PROJECTED BY SEVERAL
MODELS MAY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS THERE TOWARD MORNING. THE LATEST RAP RUN SUPPORTS THIS WITH A
MOISTENING COLUMN LATE TONIGHT AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF LINGERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL RETAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR N/NE
AND OVER THE SE LATER TONIGHT. BASED ON THE WEAK MBE MOVEMENT NOTED
BY THE RAP AND DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL-0C NEARING 4 KM)... LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH SLOW-MOVING AND/OR TRAINING CELLS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING IN THE SE CWA. MILD LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...
ANOTHER MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING OVER
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE OUR CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KTS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 6-7 DEG C/KM. IN ADDITION...CENTRAL NC SEE INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT MONDAY AS WE BECOME UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 110+KT JET. THESE DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT
OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.5-1.7 INCHES OF >200
PERCENT OF NORMAL). THUS... SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ERUPT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING WELL
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS. MAIN CONCERN IS A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS
TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN LOCATIONS COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO FLOODING
OF STREETS AS WELL AS CREEKS/STREAMS. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THOUGH COULD
SEE THE NEEDED FOR A FEW URBAN/SMALL STREAM STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLY
A FFW OR TWO.
IF THE MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION ARRIVES PRIOR
TO 15Z...INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THEN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED BUT COULD SEE AN
INCREASE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
HIGH TEMPS MONDAY DEPENDENT ON PARTIAL SUN OCCURRING IN THE EARLY-
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IF CLOUDS SLOW TO DEPART OR SCATTERED
CONVECTION COMMENCES SOONER THAN 20Z...THEN HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP
BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER. MAX TEMPS 80-85. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
LOW-MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 258 PM SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS EARLY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND MID-DAY. UNTIL FROPA...LOOK FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE...THUS AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...AND
PARTICULARLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SHOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LOOK
FOR DRIER NW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD OUR CWA...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW...
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WORTH NOTING THOUGH...THIS
FRONT...AND THE AIRMASS JUST AHEAD OF IT...APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE...RIGHT NOW WE`RE EXPECTING VERY MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOL NW FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR AREA
WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW PROGGED TO TRANSIT VA AND NC. GIVEN THE THE
ASSOC INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW...THE
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO EXIT TO OUR EAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEG BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM SUNDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO THE WEST...AFFECTING THE TRIAD TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTH FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT
CONVECTION CHANCES TO DECREASE WITH TIME AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW STRATUS (IFR/LIFR CIGS) IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE USUAL 08Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME ALONG WITH THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER. AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING MONDAY... HOWEVER SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN LIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AFT/EVE...RESULTING IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WHERE
THEY OCCUR.
LOOKING AHEAD: THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS. PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM BOTH LOW STRATUS AND CONVECTION WILL BE
LIKELY. AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1244 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TODAY IS THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SEEING SOME CUMULUS FORMATION ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST THAT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN UNDERNEATH THE NORTHERN H500 HIGH COMPONENT
OF THE REX BLOCK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL VERY DRY AIR SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND LOW RH
VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY NORTH. CLOUDS
SPILLING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
H500 DEFORMATION ZONE SO WILL INCREASE CLOUDS SOUTH. OTHERWISE
FORECAST TRENDING WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
ADJUSTED SKY COVER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO BRING
SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AROUND 18 UTC. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR ARE INDICATING A
CU FIELD DEVELOPING HERE MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FEET. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
OTHER THAN UPDATING LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
OVERALL A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS PRODUCING A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
THROUGH THIS MORNING BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THEN BEGINS TO
RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST.
THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUST
TO AROUND 30 MPH. WINDS WILL LESSEN AS YOU MOVE NORTH AND EAST BUT
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS TO AROUND 20 MPH FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL ALSO SEE OUR WARMEST
TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. WE STARTED WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HUMIDITIES GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS RESULTS IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ANYWHERE FROM 18 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL. FIRE DANGER IN THE NORTH CENTRAL REMAINS IN THE
VERY HIGH CATEGORY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL NOT CORRESPOND WITH THE LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
PASS THIS ALONG TO THE DAY SHIFT BUT AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS. IF WINDS WOULD HOLD UP INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND HUMIDITIES DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST WE COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. EVEN IF THIS OCCURS...THINK
IT WOULD BE HARD TO REACH THE REQUIRED TIME FRAME OF A 3 HOUR
PERIOD...SO THINK ITS MINIMAL ENOUGH THAT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
NOT NEEDED.
EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS SHOVING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND THIS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-DAY OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO
THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY TRANSLATES SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPING
BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WAVE TRAVERSING THE
BUILDING RIDGE ON MONDAY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. THIS IS FARTHER EAST THAN 24 HOURS AGO
AND IS THE WEST OUTLIER IN THE ENVELOPE OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW OUR MODEL BLEND KEEPS IT DRY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION. A STRONGER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE
RIDGE BY MID WEEK IS FARTHER EAST BUT LOOKS TO BRING SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN WARMING INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WAVE DEVELOPS INTO THE EAST LOW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
OMEGA BLOCK. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF WANTS TO MERGE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WITH THE WESTERN LOW AS THE NORTHERN WAVE BREAKS DOWN THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND KEEPS THE WESTERN TROUGH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH SIGNIFICANT DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES AND A LARGE
SPREAD OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK...WILL STICK WITH OUR MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WHICH DOES BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OF
25 TO 35KTS AT KJMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TAF
SITES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 8 PM CDT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
934 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN UNDERNEATH THE NORTHERN H500 HIGH COMPONENT
OF THE REX BLOCK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL VERY DRY AIR SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND LOW RH
VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY NORTH. CLOUDS
SPILLING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
H500 DEFORMATION ZONE SO WILL INCREASE CLOUDS SOUTH. OTHERWISE
FORECAST TRENDING WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
ADJUSTED SKY COVER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO BRING
SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AROUND 18 UTC. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR ARE INDICATING A
CU FIELD DEVELOPING HERE MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FEET. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
OTHER THAN UPDATING LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
OVERALL A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS PRODUCING A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
THROUGH THIS MORNING BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THEN BEGINS TO
RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST.
THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUST
TO AROUND 30 MPH. WINDS WILL LESSEN AS YOU MOVE NORTH AND EAST BUT
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS TO AROUND 20 MPH FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL ALSO SEE OUR WARMEST
TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. WE STARTED WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HUMIDITIES GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS RESULTS IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ANYWHERE FROM 18 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL. FIRE DANGER IN THE NORTH CENTRAL REMAINS IN THE
VERY HIGH CATEGORY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL NOT CORRESPOND WITH THE LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
PASS THIS ALONG TO THE DAY SHIFT BUT AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS. IF WINDS WOULD HOLD UP INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND HUMIDITIES DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST WE COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. EVEN IF THIS OCCURS...THINK
IT WOULD BE HARD TO REACH THE REQUIRED TIME FRAME OF A 3 HOUR
PERIOD...SO THINK ITS MINIMAL ENOUGH THAT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
NOT NEEDED.
EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS SHOVING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND THIS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-DAY OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO
THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY TRANSLATES SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPING
BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WAVE TRAVERSING THE
BUILDING RIDGE ON MONDAY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. THIS IS FARTHER EAST THAN 24 HOURS AGO
AND IS THE WEST OUTLIER IN THE ENVELOPE OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW OUR MODEL BLEND KEEPS IT DRY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION. A STRONGER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE
RIDGE BY MID WEEK IS FARTHER EAST BUT LOOKS TO BRING SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN WARMING INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WAVE DEVELOPS INTO THE EAST LOW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
OMEGA BLOCK. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF WANTS TO MERGE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WITH THE WESTERN LOW AS THE NORTHERN WAVE BREAKS DOWN THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND KEEPS THE WESTERN TROUGH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH SIGNIFICANT DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES AND A LARGE
SPREAD OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK...WILL STICK WITH OUR MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WHICH DOES BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A SCT/BKN CUMULUS
FIELD BASED AT 5KFT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS OF
15KT TO 25KT WILL OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
625 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
ADJUSTED SKY COVER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO BRING
SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AROUND 18 UTC. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR ARE INDICATING A
CU FIELD DEVELOPING HERE MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FEET. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
OTHER THAN UPDATING LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
OVERALL A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS PRODUCING A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
THROUGH THIS MORNING BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THEN BEGINS TO
RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST.
THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUST
TO AROUND 30 MPH. WINDS WILL LESSEN AS YOU MOVE NORTH AND EAST BUT
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS TO AROUND 20 MPH FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL ALSO SEE OUR WARMEST
TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. WE STARTED WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HUMIDITIES GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS RESULTS IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ANYWHERE FROM 18 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL. FIRE DANGER IN THE NORTH CENTRAL REMAINS IN THE
VERY HIGH CATEGORY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL NOT CORRESPOND WITH THE LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
PASS THIS ALONG TO THE DAY SHIFT BUT AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS. IF WINDS WOULD HOLD UP INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND HUMIDITIES DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST WE COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. EVEN IF THIS OCCURS...THINK
IT WOULD BE HARD TO REACH THE REQUIRED TIME FRAME OF A 3 HOUR
PERIOD...SO THINK ITS MINIMAL ENOUGH THAT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
NOT NEEDED.
EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS SHOVING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND THIS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-DAY OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO
THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY TRANSLATES SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPING
BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WAVE TRAVERSING THE
BUILDING RIDGE ON MONDAY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. THIS IS FARTHER EAST THAN 24 HOURS AGO
AND IS THE WEST OUTLIER IN THE ENVELOPE OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW OUR MODEL BLEND KEEPS IT DRY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION. A STRONGER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE
RIDGE BY MID WEEK IS FARTHER EAST BUT LOOKS TO BRING SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN WARMING INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WAVE DEVELOPS INTO THE EAST LOW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
OMEGA BLOCK. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF WANTS TO MERGE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WITH THE WESTERN LOW AS THE NORTHERN WAVE BREAKS DOWN THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND KEEPS THE WESTERN TROUGH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH SIGNIFICANT DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES AND A LARGE
SPREAD OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK...WILL STICK WITH OUR MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WHICH DOES BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A SCT/BKN CUMULUS
FIELD BASED AT 5KFT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS OF
15KT TO 25KT WILL OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
130 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW EARLY SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAIN IS JUST INTO SW OHIO SO SLOWED TIMING OF SHOWERS SLIGHTLY.
AS A RESULT BUMPED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TOO ACROSS WRN OH.
ORIGINAL...CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVED IN
FROM THE NORTH. SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS JUST TO OUR WEST
HOWEVER IN OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO
SPREAD INTO/ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAIN
NOT ON KCLE RADAR YET BUT A REGIONAL LOOK SHOWS RAIN ACROSS KY/SRN
IN/SRN IL MOVING NORTHEAST. HRRR TIMING LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE
RAIN GETTING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE SWRN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM KFDY-
KMNN AROUND 15-16Z TIME FRAME AND KCLE 19-20Z. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING SOUTHWEST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL TAKE POPS TO CATEGORICAL
ALONG AND WEST OF AN ERIE TO STARK COUNTY LINE. FURTHER EAST TO
NWRN PA WILL HAVE CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE. HELD TEMPS TO A 55 TO
63 RANGE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW REACHES NEAR THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. GIVEN
THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK VERY NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN SIGNIFICANT...MORE SO FOR TEMPERATURES
THAN PRECIP. FOR NOW HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THE SREF SOLUTION...ITS
PATH ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO REACH FURTHER NORTH INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH. FOR TONIGHT RAIN
SHOULD BE ONGOING SO WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS TAPERING FROM THE
WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. SUNDAY...MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE GFS DERIVED POPS MOSTLY IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY WHILE THE NAM IN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE. AGAIN
HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS. NO JOY SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING STRONGLY THAT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
GETS INTO THE AREA WITH CAT POPS. THE NAM...NOT SO MUCH. WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS EAST/NORTHEAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE BEST...AND
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. MONDAY WILL HANG INTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
SOUTHEAST BUT EXPECT DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS THE SYSTEM EXITS NEW
ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
COME TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL WAIT ANOTHER RUN OR TWO FOR IMPROVED
CONSISTENCY BEFORE COMMITTING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE ONLY DAY WE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IS WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE COOL UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING FOR SEVERAL
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HAVE JUST ABOUT SCOURED OUT THE REMAINING LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SW TO NE.
EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO DIP TO MVFR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE PRECIP
BEGINS AND EVENTUALLY TO IFR AFTER 00Z AS THE SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE
PINPOINTING THE LOW TRACK SO THE WIND FORECAST IS TOUGH. RIGHT NOW
EXPECT IT TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WHICH MEANS ONLY KTOL
COULD END UP WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR WEATHER TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z WITH DRYING DURING THE MORNING FROM
WEST TO EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE CIGS MAY BEGIN TO LIFT TO MVFR IN THE
WEST TOMORROW MORNING. GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY SEE NO NEED FOR
THUNDER. MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECT TILL TOMORROW MORNING WHEN
WINDS BECOME SW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. SOME GUSTINESS IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN THE NON VFR
SUNDAY FAR SOUTH. NON VFR MONDAY...PRIMARILY NE OH/NW PA. NON VFR
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TODAY AND INCREASE TO THE POINT THAT WE
WILL BE ON THE VERGE OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TOWARD THE
ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO SUNDAY...WITH WINDS ON THE LAKE BACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES THE LAKE
TUESDAY...BUT A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
INCREASE...WITH A CHANCE OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. FOR NOW FORECAST IS
LESS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
924 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW EARLY SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAIN IS JUST INTO SW OHIO SO SLOWED TIMING OF SHOWERS SLIGHTLY.
AS A RESULT BUMPED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TOO ACROSS WRN OH.
ORIGINAL...CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVED IN
FROM THE NORTH. SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS JUST TO OUR WEST
HOWEVER IN OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO
SPREAD INTO/ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAIN
NOT ON KCLE RADAR YET BUT A REGIONAL LOOK SHOWS RAIN ACROSS KY/SRN
IN/SRN IL MOVING NORTHEAST. HRRR TIMING LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE
RAIN GETTING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE SWRN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM KFDY-
KMNN AROUND 15-16Z TIME FRAME AND KCLE 19-20Z. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING SOUTHWEST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL TAKE POPS TO CATEGORICAL
ALONG AND WEST OF AN ERIE TO STARK COUNTY LINE. FURTHER EAST TO
NWRN PA WILL HAVE CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE. HELD TEMPS TO A 55 TO
63 RANGE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW REACHES NEAR THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. GIVEN
THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK VERY NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN SIGNIFICANT...MORE SO FOR TEMPERATURES
THAN PRECIP. FOR NOW HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THE SREF SOLUTION...ITS
PATH ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO REACH FURTHER NORTH INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH. FOR TONIGHT RAIN
SHOULD BE ONGOING SO WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS TAPERING FROM THE
WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. SUNDAY...MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE GFS DERIVED POPS MOSTLY IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY WHILE THE NAM IN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE. AGAIN
HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS. NO JOY SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING STRONGLY THAT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
GETS INTO THE AREA WITH CAT POPS. THE NAM...NOT SO MUCH. WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS EAST/NORTHEAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE BEST...AND
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. MONDAY WILL HANG INTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
SOUTHEAST BUT EXPECT DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS THE SYSTEM EXITS NEW
ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
COME TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL WAIT ANOTHER RUN OR TWO FOR IMPROVED
CONSISTENCY BEFORE COMMITTING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE ONLY DAY WE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IS WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE COOL UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING FOR SEVERAL
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EASTERN STRATUS INDEED MOVED INTO EASTERN OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 300 TO 600 FEET. EXPECT THESE TO LIFT AND
SCATTER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. RAIN ARRIVES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TAKES IT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND INTO WESTERN/NW PA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE LOWER IFR
FOR TOL AS THEY SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. OTHERS MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF IFR AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. THOSE THAT
CAN GET A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY SEE IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS. LIKELY NOT AS GOOD AS VFR...BUT LESS LIKELY TO HAVE IFR.
THUNDER A SMALL POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN THE NON VFR
SUNDAY FAR SOUTH. NON VFR MONDAY...PRIMARILY NE OH/NW PA. NON VFR
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TODAY AND INCREASE TO THE POINT THAT WE
WILL BE ON THE VERGE OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TOWARD THE
ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO SUNDAY...WITH WINDS ON THE LAKE BACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES THE LAKE
TUESDAY...BUT A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
INCREASE...WITH A CHANCE OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. FOR NOW FORECAST IS
LESS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
736 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW EARLY SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...LOW STRATUS HAS SNUCK IN FROM THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING
SO MADE WHOLESALE CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED
HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EARLY MORNING READINGS IN THE
30S.
ORIGINAL...CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVED IN
FROM THE NORTH. SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS JUST TO OUR WEST
HOWEVER IN OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO
SPREAD INTO/ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAIN
NOT ON KCLE RADAR YET BUT A REGIONAL LOOK SHOWS RAIN ACROSS KY/SRN
IN/SRN IL MOVING NORTHEAST. HRRR TIMING LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE
RAIN GETTING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE SWRN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM KFDY-
KMNN AROUND 15-16Z TIME FRAME AND KCLE 19-20Z. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING SOUTHWEST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL TAKE POPS TO CATEGORICAL
ALONG AND WEST OF AN ERIE TO STARK COUNTY LINE. FURTHER EAST TO
NWRN PA WILL HAVE CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE. HELD TEMPS TO A 55 TO
63 RANGE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW REACHES NEAR THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. GIVEN
THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK VERY NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN SIGNIFICANT...MORE SO FOR TEMPERATURES
THAN PRECIP. FOR NOW HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THE SREF SOLUTION...ITS
PATH ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO REACH FURTHER NORTH INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH. FOR TONIGHT RAIN
SHOULD BE ONGOING SO WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS TAPERING FROM THE
WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. SUNDAY...MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE GFS DERIVED POPS MOSTLY IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY WHILE THE NAM IN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE. AGAIN
HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS. NO JOY SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING STRONGLY THAT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
GETS INTO THE AREA WITH CAT POPS. THE NAM...NOT SO MUCH. WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS EAST/NORTHEAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE BEST...AND
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. MONDAY WILL HANG INTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
SOUTHEAST BUT EXPECT DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS THE SYSTEM EXITS NEW
ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
COME TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL WAIT ANOTHER RUN OR TWO FOR IMPROVED
CONSISTENCY BEFORE COMMITTING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE ONLY DAY WE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IS WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE COOL UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING FOR SEVERAL
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EASTERN STRATUS INDEED MOVED INTO EASTERN OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 300 TO 600 FEET. EXPECT THESE TO LIFT AND
SCATTER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. RAIN ARRIVES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TAKES IT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND INTO WESTERN/NW PA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE LOWER IFR
FOR TOL AS THEY SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. OTHERS MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF IFR AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. THOSE THAT
CAN GET A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY SEE IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS. LIKELY NOT AS GOOD AS VFR...BUT LESS LIKELY TO HAVE IFR.
THUNDER A SMALL POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN THE NON VFR
SUNDAY FAR SOUTH. NON VFR MONDAY...PRIMARILY NE OH/NW PA. NON VFR
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TODAY AND INCREASE TO THE POINT THAT WE
WILL BE ON THE VERGE OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TOWARD THE
ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO SUNDAY...WITH WINDS ON THE LAKE BACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES THE LAKE
TUESDAY...BUT A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
INCREASE...WITH A CHANCE OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. FOR NOW FORECAST IS
LESS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
605 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW EARLY SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...LOW STRATUS HAS SNUCK IN FROM THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING
SO MADE WHOLESALE CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED
HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EARLY MORNING READINGS IN THE
30S.
ORIGINAL...CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVED IN
FROM THE NORTH. SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS JUST TO OUR WEST
HOWEVER IN OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO
SPREAD INTO/ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAIN
NOT ON KCLE RADAR YET BUT A REGIONAL LOOK SHOWS RAIN ACROSS KY/SRN
IN/SRN IL MOVING NORTHEAST. HRRR TIMING LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE
RAIN GETTING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE SWRN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM KFDY-
KMNN AROUND 15-16Z TIME FRAME AND KCLE 19-20Z. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING SOUTHWEST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL TAKE POPS TO CATEGORICAL
ALONG AND WEST OF AN ERIE TO STARK COUNTY LINE. FURTHER EAST TO
NWRN PA WILL HAVE CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE. HELD TEMPS TO A 55 TO
63 RANGE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW REACHES NEAR THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. GIVEN
THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK VERY NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN SIGNIFICANT...MORE SO FOR TEMPERATURES
THAN PRECIP. FOR NOW HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THE SREF SOLUTION...ITS
PATH ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO REACH FURTHER NORTH INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH. FOR TONIGHT RAIN
SHOULD BE ONGOING SO WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS TAPERING FROM THE
WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. SUNDAY...MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE GFS DERIVED POPS MOSTLY IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY WHILE THE NAM IN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE. AGAIN
HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS. NO JOY SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING STRONGLY THAT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
GETS INTO THE AREA WITH CAT POPS. THE NAM...NOT SO MUCH. WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS EAST/NORTHEAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE BEST...AND
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. MONDAY WILL HANG INTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
SOUTHEAST BUT EXPECT DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS THE SYSTEM EXITS NEW
ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
COME TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL WAIT ANOTHER RUN OR TWO FOR IMPROVED
CONSISTENCY BEFORE COMMITTING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE ONLY DAY WE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IS WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE COOL UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING FOR SEVERAL
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REGION IN THE GAP BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH CLEAR SKIES TO START. STILL
SOME VFR STRATUS IN NW OH AND MVFR STRATUS IN NW PA/EASTERN OHIO.
THESE MAY EXPAND INTO TOL/FDY/YNG/ERI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WITH THE LATE CLEARING...MAY GET BR/FG TO DEVELOP FOR MFD/CAK.
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR SATURDAY. PRIMARILY VFR TO START WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IFR FOR THE
EVENING WITH RAIN. THUNDER A SMALL POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. MODELS STILL NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THE LOW OUT OF MISSOURI ACROSS OHIO. EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE
NOT ONLY WIND DIRECTION FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ALSO WHETHER
THE NON VFR CEILINGS CAN LIFT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN THE NON VFR
SUNDAY FAR SOUTH. NON VFR MONDAY...PRIMARILY NE OH/NW PA. NON VFR
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TODAY AND INCREASE TO THE POINT THAT WE
WILL BE ON THE VERGE OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TOWARD THE
ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO SUNDAY...WITH WINDS ON THE LAKE BACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES THE LAKE
TUESDAY...BUT A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
INCREASE...WITH A CHANCE OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. FOR NOW FORECAST IS
LESS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
338 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW EARLY SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVED IN FROM THE
NORTH. SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS JUST TO OUR WEST HOWEVER
IN OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO SPREAD
INTO/ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAIN NOT ON
KCLE RADAR YET BUT A REGIONAL LOOK SHOWS RAIN ACROSS KY/SRN IN/SRN
IL MOVING NORTHEAST. HRRR TIMING LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE RAIN
GETTING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE SWRN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM KFDY-KMNN
AROUND 15-16Z TIME FRAME AND KCLE 19-20Z. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING SOUTHWEST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL TAKE POPS TO CATEGORICAL
ALONG AND WEST OF AN ERIE TO STARK COUNTY LINE. FURTHER EAST TO
NWRN PA WILL HAVE CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE. HELD TEMPS TO A 55 TO
63 RANGE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW REACHES NEAR THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. GIVEN
THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK VERY NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN SIGNIFICANT...MORE SO FOR TEMPERATURES
THAN PRECIP. FOR NOW HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THE SREF SOLUTION...ITS
PATH ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO REACH FURTHER NORTH INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH. FOR TONIGHT RAIN
SHOULD BE ONGOING SO WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS TAPERING FROM THE
WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. SUNDAY...MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE GFS DERIVED POPS MOSTLY IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY WHILE THE NAM IN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE. AGAIN
HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS. NO JOY SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING STRONGLY THAT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
GETS INTO THE AREA WITH CAT POPS. THE NAM...NOT SO MUCH. WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS EAST/NORTHEAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE BEST...AND
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. MONDAY WILL HANG INTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
SOUTHEAST BUT EXPECT DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS THE SYSTEM EXITS NEW
ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
COME TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL WAIT ANOTHER RUN OR TWO FOR IMPROVED
CONSISTENCY BEFORE COMMITTING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE ONLY DAY WE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IS WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE COOL UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING FOR SEVERAL
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REGION IN THE GAP BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH CLEAR SKIES TO START. STILL
SOME VFR STRATUS IN NW OH AND MVFR STRATUS IN NW PA/EASTERN OHIO.
THESE MAY EXPAND INTO TOL/FDY/YNG/ERI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WITH THE LATE CLEARING...MAY GET BR/FG TO DEVELOP FOR MFD/CAK.
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR SATURDAY. PRIMARILY VFR TO START WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IFR FOR THE
EVENING WITH RAIN. THUNDER A SMALL POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. MODELS STILL NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THE LOW OUT OF MISSOURI ACROSS OHIO. EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE
NOT ONLY WIND DIRECTION FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ALSO WHETHER
THE NON VFR CEILINGS CAN LIFT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN THE NON VFR
SUNDAY FAR SOUTH. NON VFR MONDAY...PRIMARILY NE OH/NW PA. NON VFR
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TODAY AND INCREASE TO THE POINT THAT WE
WILL BE ON THE VERGE OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TOWARD THE
ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO SUNDAY...WITH WINDS ON THE LAKE BACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES THE LAKE
TUESDAY...BUT A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
INCREASE...WITH A CHANCE OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. FOR NOW FORECAST IS
LESS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1009 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
MONDAY. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND CONT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMMPACT A FEW SITES THIS
EVENING... AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR AT SPS. OTHERWISE
CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW BEYOND THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS TO MENTION.
30
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A DISORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...THEN ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA
BORDER...AND WILL MOVE ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ITS INFLUENCE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AS
IT PASSES OVER OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE...WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.
GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY. AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE IN PLACE FROM MID- TO LATE-
WEEK...WHICH WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN...AND
RELATIVELY LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED...THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER SUBDUED NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS
THAT CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT COME TOGETHER...SO NO FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 46 64 44 71 / 30 0 0 10
HOBART OK 45 66 42 71 / 20 0 0 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 48 67 45 72 / 60 10 0 20
GAGE OK 40 65 40 71 / 30 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 43 63 41 71 / 30 10 0 10
DURANT OK 51 67 47 72 / 40 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
948 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Enhanced area of light rain in a narrow band continues to spread
into parts of eastern OK this evening, likely in the vicinity of
850mb frontal zone that stretches just south of I-44. This area
will see the highest rain chances through early tonight with only
light amounts expected. Aside from that the forecast for tonight
looks reasonable with a limited threat of thunder later tonight
across far southeast OK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A few showers possible across northeast Oklahoma this evening in
association with passing upper wave. Brief MVFR conditions expected
Monday morning across NE OK/NW AR with lower cloud deck, however
ceiling heights are expected to rise back to VFR conditions by noon.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Showers lifting northeast across western OK will graze portions of
NE OK this afternoon. This activity should gradually dissipate
toward 00z as the isentropic lift forcing it weakens. Upper
shortwave trough over AZ/NM will slide northeast across our area
tonight. The 12z GFS/ECMWF and latest runs of the experimental
HRRR bring showers across NE OK tonight along the track of the
system. Farther to the south over west TX...increasing ~800 mb
frontogenetic lift in association with the upper wave will
produce one or more bands of rain and possibly a few lightning
strikes late tonight. This activity will spread northeast along
the frontal surface with the HRRR suggesting that it will clip
southeast OK going into Monday morning. Will carry higher chance
pops along the track of the upper wave up north...and down south
where it is most likely banded precip will occur...and only slight
chance pops in between.
Temperatures through Monday night...highs and lows...will run
roughly 10 degrees below average for this time of year. A warming
trend is expected by midweek...with highs returning to the 80s for
the latter part of the week.
The upper air pattern next week will be characterized by a deep
upper trough over the East and Gulf with a ridge over the Rockies.
Rich Gulf moisture will be scoured out by this pattern...with
tranquil weather expected. The upper features will slowly shift
east...with ridging over the Plains by the end of the week.
Eventually a deep upper trough over the West will eventually move
into the Plains early next week...and this will be our next chance
of storms. The moisture quality this system will have to work with
will not be as good as what we saw the last week of April however.
This may mitigate the overall severe potential.
Lacy
TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 47 65 45 72 / 60 10 0 10
FSM 52 69 47 71 / 20 10 10 0
MLC 50 66 44 71 / 20 10 0 10
BVO 46 65 40 72 / 40 10 0 10
FYV 47 63 39 67 / 20 10 10 10
BYV 48 63 42 67 / 30 20 10 10
MKO 48 65 44 71 / 30 10 0 0
MIO 47 63 41 70 / 40 20 10 0
F10 48 65 44 71 / 60 10 0 0
HHW 54 70 46 72 / 30 30 0 10
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
652 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A few showers possible across northeast Oklahoma this evening in
association with passing upper wave. Brief MVFR conditions expected
Monday morning across NE OK/NW AR with lower cloud deck, however
ceiling heights are expected to rise back to VFR conditions by noon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Showers lifting northeast across western OK will graze portions of
NE OK this afternoon. This activity should gradually dissipate
toward 00z as the isentropic lift forcing it weakens. Upper
shortwave trough over AZ/NM will slide northeast across our area
tonight. The 12z GFS/ECMWF and latest runs of the experimental
HRRR bring showers across NE OK tonight along the track of the
system. Farther to the south over west TX...increasing ~800 mb
frontogenetic lift in association with the upper wave will
produce one or more bands of rain and possibly a few lightning
strikes late tonight. This activity will spread northeast along
the frontal surface with the HRRR suggesting that it will clip
southeast OK going into Monday morning. Will carry higher chance
pops along the track of the upper wave up north...and down south
where it is most likely banded precip will occur...and only slight
chance pops in between.
Temperatures through Monday night...highs and lows...will run
roughly 10 degrees below average for this time of year. A warming
trend is expected by midweek...with highs returning to the 80s for
the latter part of the week.
The upper air pattern next week will be characterized by a deep
upper trough over the East and Gulf with a ridge over the Rockies.
Rich Gulf moisture will be scoured out by this pattern...with
tranquil weather expected. The upper features will slowly shift
east...with ridging over the Plains by the end of the week.
Eventually a deep upper trough over the West will eventually move
into the Plains early next week...and this will be our next chance
of storms. The moisture quality this system will have to work with
will not be as good as what we saw the last week of April however.
This may mitigate the overall severe potential.
Lacy
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
242 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
.DISCUSSION...
At 2 PM, the surface cold front was draped from just east of the
I-49 corridor in NW AR south to the Arklatex. Moderate instability
/1000-2000 J/KG of CAPE/ resides east of the boundary as it slowly
moves east. 17Z SGF sounding was not impressive from a deep layer
shear perspective as our area resides in a relative minimum in
mid level flow. The latest HRRR suggests some convection
developing on the eastern fringes of the forecast area. This still
suggests severe /mainly hail/ potential will be to the east with
storms moving and maturing east of our area.
The polar front will slide thru the region on Sunday in the wake
of the upper low to our north. Another piece of energy rotating
around the base of the parent western CONUS upper trough will
slide across the central Plains Sunday night...weakening with time
as it shears out. Lift north of the surface front will bring the
best rain chances down south...with lower chances farther north in
association with weakening mid level frontogenetic band.
Instability will be hard to come by this far north of the surface
front...thus maintained only isolated thunder mention in the
southeast.
Fairly tranquil work week expected as upper pattern transitions
to a deep trough over the East and Gulf with ridging over the
Rockies. Rich Gulf moisture will be scoured out by this pattern
and will take many days to return. The next upper trough will
bring storm chances by the latter part of next weekend into early
next week. However...moisture quality will be subpar for early May
standards. Overall severe event may be limited by this.
Lacy
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 47 68 48 67 / 0 10 30 10
FSM 53 75 52 70 / 10 0 50 20
MLC 50 71 51 67 / 0 0 40 10
BVO 46 66 47 66 / 0 10 30 10
FYV 46 70 48 64 / 10 0 30 10
BYV 48 70 48 63 / 10 10 20 10
MKO 49 71 49 66 / 0 0 30 10
MIO 47 67 47 64 / 0 10 20 10
F10 49 70 50 66 / 0 0 30 10
HHW 55 76 54 70 / 0 0 50 20
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
921 AM PDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON STATE TODAY. AS THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH...DRIER NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP COMMENCING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
JUMP 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY...COOLING ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY BUT REMAINING WARM INLAND. AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES INTO
ALBERTA MONDAY...LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE CASCADES MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY TUESDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
PACIFIC. COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...MORNING SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS
MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST...COLUMBIA RIVER LOWLANDS/NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND EASTERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY/CASCADES. AS
INITIAL MIXING DEVELOPS STRATUS HAS EXPANDED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
TWO...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TURNING
OFFSHORE AND WARMING BEGINNING BY 18Z. MIXED LAYER THEN DEEPENS
SUFFICIENTLY THEREAFTER FOR CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE AREA. HRRR RUNS
DEPICT TREND NICELY WITH MAINLY SUNNY /ALBEIT THROUGH CIRRUS/
BETWEEN 19-20Z. REMAINDER OF WEEKEND UNDER NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND WARMER AIRMASS. BRIGHT
PREVIOUS SHORT/LONG TERM DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS OUR UPPER LOW DIGGING S-SE ALONG THE CA/NV BORDER AND HEADED
TOWARD ARIZONA. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BANK UP
AGAINST THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE...PRODUCING ENOUGH DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN TO MEASURE AT A FEW RAWS SITES HERE AND THERE. TOUGH TO
DISCRIMINATE BETWEEN ACTUAL PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW AT SOME OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATION SITES...BUT AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT SOME AREAS OF
DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEYOND 12Z THIS MORNING.
WILL KEEP POPS LOW...AROUND 10 PERCENT...BUT ADDED MENTION OF DRIZZLE
ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE YET ANOTHER WARM
SPELL ACROSS SW WA/NW OR. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE THIRD WARM SPELL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S THIS SEASON FOR INLAND VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY
THE COAST AS WELL. TODAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS AND A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING VERSUS FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT TURNS
DECIDEDLY EASTERLY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TRIES TO GET INTO A REX BLOCK WITH A
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND WASHINGTON. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE WARMING TREND TO BEGIN IN EARNEST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. AS FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE THE AIR MASS WILL DRY CONSIDERABLY.
THIS SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPS AT 850 MB DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS WARM AS THE LAST TWO EVENTS...
NOR WILL 500 MB HEIGHTS BE QUITE AS HIGH. SEEING FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT REGARDING HOW WARM THE AIR MASS WILL BE...WITH BOTH THE 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING 850 MB TEMPS PEAKING AT AROUND +15 DEG C OVER
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVING DIFFICULTY PULLING UP
ARCHIVED SOUNDING DATA AT THE MOMENT...BUT BASED ON MEMORY THIS
COMPARES TO +17 TO +20 DEG C FROM OUR PAST TWO WARM SPELLS. WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE... ANY THERMAL TROUGH
WHICH DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY STAY OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE COAST TO GET IN ON THE WARMING AS WELL... POSSIBLY EVEN BEING THE
WARMEST IN OUR CWA ON SUNDAY AS THEY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
DOUBLE-DOWNSLOPE EFFECT OFF BOTH THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE.
ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS DOES NOT APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR 90S THIS TIME
AROUND...80S APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET FOR JUST ABOUT ANYONE AT LOW
ELEVATION IN OUR CWA SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY.
00Z/06Z NAM SHOW WHAT SEEMS TO BE A PRETTY REALISTIC EVOLUTION OF THE
THERMAL TROUGH INTO A THERMAL LOW JUST OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT/ EARLY
MON...WHICH THEN LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE PAC NW COAST MONDAY. THIS
COULD PROMPT A S-SW SURGE OF MARINE AIR ALONG THE COAST MONDAY...
POSSIBLY TRICKLING INLAND ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER FOR
EUGENE. AS ONE PART OF THE THERMAL LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE PAC NW
COAST...ANOTHER PORTION WILL LIKELY MIGRATE ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD ENHANCE
INSTABILITY...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER MARINE AIR EFFECTIVELY
WORKING AS A COLD FRONT TO PROVIDE SOME ADDED LIFT FOR SFC-BASED
PARCELS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY MONDAY...WITH THE 06Z NAM NOW SHOWING ABOUT
1000-1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND ONLY WEAK CIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING A THUNDER MENTION WEST OF THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS FOR NOW...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS. IT IS
NOTABLE THAT THE 00Z GFS SHOWS CONSIDERABLY LESS CAPE FOR THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY MON AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 300-500 J/KG OF ML
CAPE...WHICH ALSO SWAYED US TOWARD HOLDING OFF ON THE THUNDER MENTION
ASIDE FROM THE CASCADES. EITHER WAY...SHOWER CHANCES START TO
INCREASE MONDAY...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR SPRING WITH COOLER TEMPS AND SHOWERS AT TIMES.
A CLIMATE NOTE TO FURTHER PUT THIS EXTREMELY WARM SPRING INTO
PERSPECTIVE...PDX HAS ALREADY HAD SIX 80-DEGREE DAYS THIS SEASON.
THIS IS AN ALL-TIME RECORD PACE FOR PDX...AND ONLY 2004 AND 1947 HAVE
HAD 5 80-DEGREE DAYS BY THE END OF APRIL SINCE RECORDS STARTED IN
1940. IN STARK CONTRAST...1954 HAD JUST 10 80-DEGREE DAYS THE ENTIRE
YEAR AT PDX. THE AVERAGE FOR AN ENTIRE YEAR AT PDX IS 51 DAYS. USING
PDX AS AN EXAMPLE AGAIN...THE MEAN TEMPERATURE FOR APRIL 2016 THROUGH
THE 28TH IS 57.9 DEG F...5.9 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL AND A STUNNING 1.6
DEG F ABOVE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 56.3 DEG F FROM APRIL 2004.
RECORDS ARE NOT JUST BEING BROKEN...THEY ARE BEING SHATTERED DUE TO
THE SERIES OF SUMMER-CALIBER UPPER RIDGES THAT HAVE AFFECTED THE PAC
NW THIS MONTH. MAY 2016 LOOKS TO BE STARTING NO DIFFERENTLY. WEAGLE
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT RELATIVELY COOLER MARINE AIR WILL PUSH
INLAND AND DEEPEN ON SW FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH LITTLE
TO NO EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASINGLY STABLE
MARINE AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...DECIDED TO REMOVE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE LOWLANDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN
THE LOWLANDS MAY ACTUALLY BE MONDAY AS THE LEADING EDGE OF MARINE AIR
ACTS AS A LIFTING MECHANISM ON A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ASSUMING
THE EARLY WEEK UPPER RIDGE DOES NOT FORM A STRONG AND PERSISTENT REX
BLOCK...MODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW AN UPPER TROUGH TO TAKE RESIDENCE OVER THE PAC NW MID TO LATE
WEEK. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A COOLDOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS FOR
EARLY MAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS. WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...SCATTERED HIGH MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS STRATUS
CONTINUES TO BACK BUILD FROM THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS. STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND WEST IN COVERAGE THROUGH 17Z-18Z AND THEN BREAK
UP THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. THEN THE TREND SHOULD BE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DISSIPATING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIG AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FT THROUGH 19Z-20Z
THEN BREAKING UP AND CLOUD DISSIPATING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...A THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH OREGON COAST WILL
STRENGTHEN TODAY BRINGING INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF ABOUT CASCADE HEAD. WINDS NEAR SHORE SHOULD
EASE LATER THIS EVENING...BUT CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER MARINE ZONES
INTO SUN MORNING. THE THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO THE
WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS MON.
SEAS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY RUNNING 7 TO 8 FT THIS MORNING WITH
DOMINANT PERIOD INCREASING TO 10 TO 11 SECONDS. HAVE LET THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS EXPIRE BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SEAS
IN CASE PERIODS DECREASE WITH INCREASING WINDS TODAY TO CAUSE A
RETURN OF SQUARE SEAS. BOWEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS
MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1157 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY SOME COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER PA AT THIS HOUR...BUT WEAK UPSTREAM
MCS OVER OHIO AND REMNANTS OVER WV/MD PROMISE ADDITIONAL SCT
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. IT WILL REMAIN COOL AND DANK...WITH AREAS
OF FOG...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE DENSE IN THE HIGHER RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE DAY TIME ON MONDAY WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND
SOME MEAGER HEATING HAPPENS. HOWEVER...THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER
AIR SEEMS TO HAPPEN JUST AS WE ARE WARMING UP. WHAT ARE CURRENTLY
WARM MAX TEMPS COULD BUST AS WELL...IF THE CLOUD COVER IS MORE
PERSISTENT THAN EXPECTED. WINDS COULD GET GUSTY /20S/ OVER THE
LAURELS AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. OVERALL...THE AFTERNOON LOOKS MORE-
DRY THAN THE MORNING. THE ONLY CHC TS IS ACROSS THE NE IN THE
EARLY MORNING AND WAY FAR IN THE SOUTH. BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOW IN
THE AFTN IN THE SOUTH TO MAKE ANY MENTION AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE AS A COOL UPPER LOW DROPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AND SETTLES NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THAT.
AHEAD OF THAT THOUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID OR LATE
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...WAVE WILL SLIDE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH SPREADING SHOWERS BACK INTO SOUTHERN PA AND
ESP THE SUSQ VALLEY. TOTAL QPF IN THE HARRISBURG AREA LOOKS TO BE
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS HEADING N AND W.
THE PATTERN TURNS QUITE UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF
OF THYE WEEK AS A DEEP SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW DROPS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...ACROSS PA AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
EVOLUTION IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREV MODEL GUIDANCE...AND INSTEAD
OF WRAPPING A SURFACE LOW BACK TO THE NE INTO PA WILL NOW MAINLY
KEEP A STEADY FEED OF COOLER MOIST AIR - YET STILL RESULT IN
PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND ESP THU...WITH FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN
GENERAL AROUND THE WED NIGHT TO FRI RANGE.
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGE WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. STILL KEPT MENTION OF A
SHOWER SE ON SAT. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WAVE TO BRING CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ON SUNDAY...BUT MODEL CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THIS TIME.
SO OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER READING
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN A WARMING TREND. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE
TO BE HAD THIS WEEK WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN
A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CIGS. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY WILL BE AT
KJST...WHERE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RESULTING IN VFR CONDS
AT 03Z. LATEST HRRR AND SREF OUTPUT SUGGEST THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND TO RESULT IN LOW CIGS
AFTER 06Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOW CIGS NOT AS HIGH AS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. IN ADDITION THE LOW CIGS...A
BATCH OF SHRA AND EVEN A POSS TSRA WILL LIKELY LIFT THRU THE
REGION BTWN 08Z-13Z ASSOC WITH AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRES.
IMPROVING FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MONDAY...AS LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH THRU
THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. MDL SOUNDINGS AND
SREF PROBS SUGGEST A RETURN TO VFR CONDS IS LIKELY BY ARND 12Z AT
KJST AND POSSIBLY BY AFTN ACROSS THE EASTERN AIRFIELDS FROM KIPT
SOUTH THRU KMDT/KLNS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY SE.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
311 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY SPINNING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL
MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BECOMING SITUATED
OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY SUNDAY EVENING. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING MOST
OF THE RAINFALL CONCENTRATED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS RAINFALL HAS BEEN CUT OFF THROUGH MOST OF
NORTHWEST IA AND THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. HAVE HAD FEW STRONGER
WIND GUSTS OVER THE PAST HOUR THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA AS THE SHOWERS
ENDED AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXED DOWN. HRRR WIND GUST GUIDANCE
SHOWING THESE ISOLATED 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS CONTINUING INTO LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE LATER
AFTERNOON...LIFTING BACK INTO OUR AREA BY EARLY EVENING. THESE
SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 OVERNIGHT WHERE
THE BETTER MIDLEVEL THETA E ADVECTION IS LOCATED...THOUGH
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD/FORCING WEAKENS/AND DRIER AIR IS PULLED
SOUTHWARD. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE OFF DURING THE
EVENING...AND LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40.
ON SUNDAY THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THOUGH MODELS EVEN
LINGER SOME QPF THROUGH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN IOWA ZONES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
BE OF A MORE SHOWERY NATURE. THERMAL PROFILES DO WARM ON
SUNDAY...AND LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER...TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT LEADING TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ADDED SOME
PATCHY FOG OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE GROUND IS ALSO VERY SATURATED.
LOWS DOWN IN TO THE THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
MONDAY SHOULD BE A NICE DAY...POSSIBLY WAITING UNTIL LATE MORNING
FOR THE SUN IF THE FOG IS MORE WIDESPREAD. LOWERED HIGHS JUST A
TOUCH OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE FOG COULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER. BASICALLY NEAR 70 IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO 60 TO 65 IN
NORTHWEST IOWA.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY...BUT IT DOES
MAKE SOME DIFFERENCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE AT WARMING AND DEVELOPING STRONGER NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE BETTER MIXING IN THE NORTHERN CWA
AND THE ECMWF IS VERY SLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. REGARDLESS
WILL BE A WARM DAY AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM TIMING WHICH WILL
KEEP SOME OF THE WARMEST HIGHS FROM HURON TO MARSHALL MINNESOTA AND
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN NORTHWEST IOWA.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A FAIRLY STRONG
DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING STRONGER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS TIME AROUND THE MODELS ARE A
LITTLE FASTER IN SWINGING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ONTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY...ALBEIT THE AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IS
MARGINAL. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS STICKS
WITH SOMETHING CLOSER TO AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH WAS ALREADY
IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY TOWARDS
THE MORE GENERAL BREAK DOWN OF THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IN THE GFS
VERSUS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
RAINFALL WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN AREAS GENERALLY
FROM THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BEFORE IMPROVING LATER TONIGHT. DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT TO
THE NORTH OF THIS WITH KHON REMAINING VFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS AT TIMES WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1112 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016
WEBCAMS/SURFACE OBS SHOW PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO FALL AS RAIN
ACROSS SW/SCNTRL SD. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS STAYED WELL SOUTH OF
THE NEB BORDER...NEAR KANW. SO HAVE CANCELLED ALL WINTER
HEADLINES. ALSO MADE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT THE MORE
SOUTHERN POSITIONING OF THE PRECIP. HRRR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BLKHLS AREA INTO PARTS OF NE WY THROUGH THE
AFTN...SO HAVE LEFT IN SOME MINIMAL POPS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SD...STILL
IN THE FORM OF RAIN ATTM. PRECIPITATION HAS NOT DEVELOPED OVER THE
HILLS AS EXPECTED...AND SO CANCELED THE ADVISORY THERE. IF SNOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE HILLS THIS MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. TECHNICALLY HAVE LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL IN
GRIDS FOR SOUTHERN SD...ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS THERE AS WELL. HOWEVER...BEING ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NEBRASKA...WILL CONTINUE
ADVISORY FOR POSSIBLE FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL THIS MORNING.
NOTED IN WSW THAT HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW CLOUDS BLANKET
THE CWA. RADAR SHOWS PRECIP BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
SD...AND CURRENT OBS ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER INDICATE RAIN. TEMPS
ARE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY.
UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH RAIN/SNOW NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP PRECIP FROM SPREADING TOO MUCH PAST THE I-90 CORRIDOR. MEDIUM-
RANGE MODELS ARE OVERESTIMATING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS
MORNING...AS ECM/GFS/NAM/SREF HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW BY NOW IN
THE AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DRY OR RECEIVING RAIN. LATEST HRRR
RUN SHOWS HARDLY ANY SNOW FOR SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH ABOUT AN INCH
IN THE HILLS. EVEN THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL
PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN...WITH LOW-LEVEL TEMPS TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
SNOW. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DYNAMIC COOLING AND WET-
BULB EFFECTS TO OVERCOME THE WARM SURFACE WITH A QUICK FEW INCHES
OF SNOW THIS MORNING...SO WILL LET ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR NOW.
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
SD THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE LOWER
50S FARTHER NORTH.
PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S...STARTING A WARMING TREND FOR NEXT
WEEK.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. NEXT UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO
WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN TRACKS INTO THE
PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NERN WY AND
WRN SD...WITH IFR CIGS FROM THE SRN BLKHLS THROUGH FAR SRN SD IN
RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NWRN SD. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
840 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016
WEBCAMS/SURFACE OBS SHOW PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO FALL AS RAIN
ACROSS SW/SCNTRL SD. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS STAYED WELL SOUTH OF
THE NEB BORDER...NEAR KANW. SO HAVE CANCELLED ALL WINTER
HEADLINES. ALSO MADE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT THE MORE
SOUTHERN POSITIONING OF THE PRECIP. HRRR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BLKHLS AREA INTO PARTS OF NE WY THROUGH THE
AFTN...SO HAVE LEFT IN SOME MINIMAL POPS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SD...STILL
IN THE FORM OF RAIN ATTM. PRECIPITATION HAS NOT DEVELOPED OVER THE
HILLS AS EXPECTED...AND SO CANCELED THE ADVISORY THERE. IF SNOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE HILLS THIS MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. TECHNICALLY HAVE LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL IN
GRIDS FOR SOUTHERN SD...ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS THERE AS WELL. HOWEVER...BEING ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NEBRASKA...WILL CONTINUE
ADVISORY FOR POSSIBLE FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL THIS MORNING.
NOTED IN WSW THAT HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW CLOUDS BLANKET
THE CWA. RADAR SHOWS PRECIP BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
SD...AND CURRENT OBS ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER INDICATE RAIN. TEMPS
ARE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY.
UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH RAIN/SNOW NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP PRECIP FROM SPREADING TOO MUCH PAST THE I-90 CORRIDOR. MEDIUM-
RANGE MODELS ARE OVERESTIMATING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS
MORNING...AS ECM/GFS/NAM/SREF HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW BY NOW IN
THE AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DRY OR RECEIVING RAIN. LATEST HRRR
RUN SHOWS HARDLY ANY SNOW FOR SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH ABOUT AN INCH
IN THE HILLS. EVEN THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL
PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN...WITH LOW-LEVEL TEMPS TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
SNOW. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DYNAMIC COOLING AND WET-
BULB EFFECTS TO OVERCOME THE WARM SURFACE WITH A QUICK FEW INCHES
OF SNOW THIS MORNING...SO WILL LET ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR NOW.
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
SD THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE LOWER
50S FARTHER NORTH.
PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S...STARTING A WARMING TREND FOR NEXT
WEEK.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. NEXT UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO
WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN TRACKS INTO THE
PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016
MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. RAIN/SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME
MVFR/IFR VSBY WITH THE PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
855 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...
NO ADDITIONAL UPDATE PLANNED. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL
IN PARTS OF TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI. STORMS NOT MOVING MUCH
PRODUCING A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN. SO PROBLEM IS IT STORMS STAY
OVER ONE AREA LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.
TLSJR
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR PARIS TENNESSEE TO
MEMPHIS...TO MONTICELLO ARKANSAS. THERE IS ALMOST A SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SITS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS DEWPOINTS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE
VALUES ARE 2500-3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...THESE
STORMS COULD QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF A CAMDEN TENNESSEE
TO CLARKSDALE MISSISSIPPI LINE. MODELS INDICATING A SFC LOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND MOVE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY WILL BE WET AND COOL ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS
THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. AS
A RESULT...BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND
THE GFS SHOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND AFFECT
AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. HAVE ADDED POPS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON THURSDAY BUT THEN A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE 80S BY THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
TSRA WAS SHOWING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER
WEST TN AND NORTHWEST MS AT 2330Z. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS POISED
ROUGHLY ALONG AND PARALLEL TO THE MS RIVER...WHILE MESOSCALE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER TSRA WAS RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
WITH VARIABLE DIRECTION.
BOTH 18Z NAM AND 22Z RUC MODELS PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MEM NEAR 06Z. DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...BOTH THE 18Z
NAM AND 18Z GFS DEVELOP SCATTERED POST FRONTAL SHRA/TSRA ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A MEM/MKL LINE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AIDED BY
INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT WINDS ALOFT AT FL350. PERIODS OF MVFR AND
TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH HAVEN/T GONE AS PESSIMISTIC WITH
CIGS AS THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
642 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR PARIS TENNESSEE TO
MEMPHIS...TO MONTICELLO ARKANSAS. THERE IS ALMOST A SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SITS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS DEWPOINTS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE
VALUES ARE 2500-3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...THESE
STORMS COULD QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF A CAMDEN TENNESSEE
TO CLARKSDALE MISSISSIPPI LINE. MODELS INDICATING A SFC LOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND MOVE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY WILL BE WET AND COOL ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS
THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. AS
A RESULT...BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND
THE GFS SHOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND AFFECT
AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. HAVE ADDED POPS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON THURSDAY BUT THEN A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE 80S BY THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
TSRA WAS SHOWING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER
WEST TN AND NORTHWEST MS AT 2330Z. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS POISED
ROUGHLY ALONG AND PARALLEL TO THE MS RIVER...WHILE MESOSCALE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER TSRA WAS RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
WITH VARIABLE DIRECTION.
BOTH 18Z NAM AND 22Z RUC MODELS PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MEM NEAR 06Z. DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...BOTH THE 18Z
NAM AND 18Z GFS DEVELOP SCATTERED POST FRONTAL SHRA/TSRA ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A MEM/MKL LINE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AIDED BY
INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT WINDS ALOFT AT FL350. PERIODS OF MVFR AND
TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH HAVEN/T GONE AS PESSIMISTIC WITH
CIGS AS THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
730 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
.AVIATION...THE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THOUGH THIS
MORNING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. APPROACHING
UPPER FORCING AS WELL AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS BEST COVERAGE ACROSS TYS AND TRI...SO HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP. SOME OF THESE STORMS ACROSS CHA AND TYS
COULD BE STRONG STORMS WITH STRONG/ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY
HAIL.
FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVENING STORMS...THEN COVERAGE
DECREASING BY LATE EVENING. SOME MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG
IS POSSIBLE AT TRI AND TYS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1003 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...
AT 930 PM A SURFACE TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
ONALASKA TO EAGLE LAKE NEAR COLUMBUS. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS
FURTHER INLAND NEAR A LINE FROM LUFKIN TO COLUMBUS. A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS PERSISTED ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FOR MOST OF THE EVENING. EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED AREAS HAVE
RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...MOST LOCATIONS HAVE
RECEIVED UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THE MAIN ITEM OF CONCERN FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL BE
ISOLATED AREAS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS WILL BE DUE TO
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
THE MODELS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THE RAIN AREAS THIS
EVENING. THERE WAS AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AS SEEN BY
DEWPOINTS OF ABOUT 12 C AT 850 MB AND 4-5 C AT 700 MB. HOWEVER...
THE MOISTURE AXIS WAS RATHER NARROW AND WAS LOCATED MAINLY OVER
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FELT THAT THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS WERE BEING GENERATED MAINLY BY THE PASSAGE OF AN
UPPER JET STREAK AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CAN BE SEEN
ON THE WATER VAPOR. A CONSENSUS OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEPS
BEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF
THE JET MOVES OVERHEAD. FOR THAT REASON... KEPT A 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE POPS AND WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
AVIATION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 21Z HAD SEVERAL BOUNDARIES OVER SE TEXAS WITH
THE MOST NOTICEABLE ONE HAVING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG IT
NORTH OF KIAH. RADAR SHOWED ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING IN
FROM THE EAST ACROSS GALVESTON BAY WHICH HAS PUSHED THROUGH
KHOU/KSGR AND LOWERED CEILINGS TO IFR. EXPECT CIGS TO BE MORE
MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE MAIN ISSUES WILL BE WITH
CONVECTION AND WILL BE AMENDING TAFS ACCORDING TO CONVECTIVE
TRENDS FOR NEXT 6-12 HRS. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE A GREAT HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT SITUATION BUT THE HRRR AND GFE SEEM TO GIVE A
GENERAL IDEA. BASED TAFS ON BOTH MODELS EVOLUTION...MAINLY HRRR
FOR SHORT TERM AND GFS FOR LONG TERM TRENDS. COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. COULD HAVE
CIGS BECOME VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OVERPECK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 62 74 56 76 54 / 40 40 20 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 68 78 60 78 56 / 70 60 20 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 72 78 66 78 64 / 70 60 20 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...GALVESTON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
656 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.AVIATION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 21Z HAD SEVERAL BOUNDARIES OVER SE TEXAS WITH
THE MOST NOTICABLE ONE HAVING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG IT NORTH
OF KIAH. RADAR SHOWED ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE
EAST ACROSS GALVESTON BAY WHICH HAS PUSHED THROUGH KHOU/KSGR AND
LOWERED CEILLINGS TO IFR. EXCPECT CIGS TO BE MORE MVFR OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE MAIN ISSUES WILL BE WITH CONVECTION AND
WILL BE AMMENDING TAFS ACCORDING TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR NEXT
6-12 HRS. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION BUT THE HRRR AND GFE SEEM TO GIVE A GENERAL IDEA. BASED
TAFS ON BOTH MODELS EVOLUTION...MAINLY HRRR FOR SHORT TERM AND GFS
FOR LONG TERM TRENDS. COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH IN THE
MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. COULD HAVE CIGS BECOME VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OVERPECK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 62 74 56 76 54 / 40 40 20 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 68 78 60 78 56 / 70 60 20 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 72 78 66 78 64 / 70 60 20 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...GALVESTON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1127 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL HEAD INTO
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...STALLING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN FINALLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST BY MIDWEEK. FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...KEEPING AN UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1113 PM EDT SUNDAY...
UPDATED TO DROP SEVERE WATCH 135 AS DEEPER CONVECTION HAS EITHER
MOVED EAST OF THE WATCH BOX OR HAS WEAKENED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA
ALONG THE BOTTOM EDGE OF THE BOX. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING SOME
CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ESPCLY EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE INSTABILITY REMAINS AROUND 1K J/KG. THUS
KEEPING HIGHER POPS GOING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CUTTING
POPS BACK TO ISOLATED PER LATEST HRRR. ALSO FOG LIKELY TO BECOME
AN ISSUE GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENING SO BEEFED UP COVERAGE. OTRW ONLY SOME
SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTS TO TEMPS OVERNIGHT PER SATURATION AND
LINGERING CLOUDS.
UPDATE AS OF 1000 PM EDT SUNDAY...
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPILL EAST/SE TOWARD AND
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE SO WILL HANG ON TO THE GOING WATCH A WHILE
LONGER AND PERHAPS DROP AROUND 11 PM PENDING TRENDS. HOWEVER
EARLIER HRRR WAS ON TRACK WITH CELLS EVOLVING INTO A LINE AND
DIPPING SOUTH SO WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS GOING FARTHER SOUTH GIVEN
LINGERING 1500 J/KG MLCAPE SEEN OFF THE SPC ANALYSIS. ALSO
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NW NC TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE MAY
IMPACT SOUTHERN SECTIONS LONGER OVERNIGHT SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
OTRW FEW ADDED CHANGES UNTIL CONVECTION FADES SOME AS THE
REMAINDER LOOKS ON TRACK FOR NOW.
UPDATE AS OF 750 PM EDT SUNDAY...
UPDATE TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 135 FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTH AND WEST UNTIL MIDNIGHT. STORMS CONTINUE TO ROLL ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY. ENOUGH RECOVERY HAS OCCURRED SINCE
EARLIER RAINFALL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO MAINTAIN SEVERE
STRENGTH UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE
DEEPER CONVECTION REMAINS IFFY GIVEN LESS CAPE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. FEW OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 320 PM EDT SUNDAY...
FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN UPPER WAVES. LOOKING FURTHER
WEST...ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE OVER KY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
UPPER SHORTWAVE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES. AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING
THIS WAVE IS GOING TO NOSE EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THINKING IS THE SAME AS
EARLIER...IN THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY
EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A SCT/BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
POSSIBLY SHIFTING EAST/SOUTHEAST FROM SE WV TO THE PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. SVR PARAMETERS FAVOR STRONGER STORMS IN WV/KY/FAR SW
VA...BUT WEAKEN FURTHER EAST...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT STRONGER STORMS
TO THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING. ORIENTATION OF THE CONVECTION AND
SPEED OF MOVEMENT SHOULD PREVENT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT...THOUGH
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE 1 INCH+ WE HAD EARLIER
TODAY IN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. STILL NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLOOD
WATCH.
FOR LATE TONIGHT...SHOWERS WANE AND WILL SEE CONTINUED SW ALOFT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY GIVEN HIGHER
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LVLS. FOG PARAMETERS ALSO FAVOR GOOD COVERAGE OF
FOG ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS AND WHERE IT RAINS THIS
EVENING...DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE
CONVECTION.
MONDAY...WE WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT MOVE FROM THE EASTERN OHIO
VALLEY SOUTHWEST TO MIDDLE TN IN THE MORNING...SLOWLY EAST TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING ALOFT BUT WILL STILL SEE SOME
SUNSHINE AT TIMES AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MUCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG
BY MID AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT AGREEMENT THAT THE 2ND OF
THE UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON LEADING TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. IF THE FRONT MOVES QUICKER THEN CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER
LOW LVL INSTABILITY. THE BEST SHEAR LOOKS TO SITUATE ITSELF FROM FAR
SW VA/SE KY NORTHWARD INTO THE MD/PA AREA...SO THIS COULD LEAD TO
MORE OF A WIND THREAT IN OUR FAR WRN CWA...WITH MARGINALLY STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS EAST.
BETTER LOW LVL AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DOES NOT REALLY GET GOING
UNTIL AFTER 21Z/5PM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SO COULD BE ANOTHER LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING EVENT.
WITH NO WEDGE MONDAY AND DEPENDING ON SKY COVER...TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER 80S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT SUBJECTING AREA TO NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS. PENDING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST
STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
SEND ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY...BEGINNING A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. OTHER THAN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...NOT
MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. FRONTAL LIFT WILL PROVIDE A
BETTER CHANCE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FAVOR READINGS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TUMBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. 85H
TEMPS OF 0 TO +5 DEG C ARE PROGGED TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND IF THIS VERIFIES...IT WILL SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS THE UPPER
LOW PASSES OVERHEAD...COLD POOL ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING FOR A DAILY THREAT OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS.
CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT PER BLOCKY LOOK TO THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN...WITH CUTOFF LOWS ON THE WEST AND EAST COASTS AND
A RIDGE UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. UNLIKE THE LAST OMEGA BLOCK
WHERE THE MID ATLANTIC ENJOYED UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...JUST THE OPPOSITE IS OCCURRING THIS GO
ROUND.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE MODELS INDICATE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EAST TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
MODERATING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
ATTM...WEEKEND AS A WHOLE LOOKS DRY. WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INSTABILITY...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE MUCH COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SUNDAY...
UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA FROM THE WEST WITH SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO THE KLWB-KBLF VICINITY
BETWEEN 00-01Z/8-9PM. STORMS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PENDING IF A
STORM MOVES DIRECTLY OVER ONE OF THE AIRPORTS. SHOULD SEE SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST PERHAPS IN LINE FORMATION
TOWARD KROA/KBCB AFTER DARK BEFORE WEAKENING. LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MVFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT AT THESE
LOCATIONS. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY HEADING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE GIVEN LESS INSTABILITY AND LOSS OF HEATING. FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE OUT ANY SHRA MENTION AT KDAN WHILE INCLUDING A VCSH AT KLYH.
ONCE THE UPSTREAM WAVE MOVES EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...A BREAK IN THE
SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WEST VA WHERE ADDED BANDS OF SHRA COULD REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BY EARLY MONDAY. OTRW QUESTION WILL BE LOW LVL MOISTURE
LEADING TO LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS DESPITE EXODUS OF THE WEDGE.
HOWEVER GIVEN MOISTURE AND ADDED RAINFALL IN SPOTS THIS
EVENING...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR IN FOG/STRATUS MOST
LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT. ALSO LIFR POSSIBLE AT KLWB IF SKIES CLEAR
FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT AND OVERALL IFR ELSEWHERE EXCEPT MVFR AT
KBLF/KROA.
AS SW FLOW KICKS IN MONDAY MORNING A TRANSITION TO SCT/BKN VFR
CIGS TO TAKE PLACE AT ALL SITES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED IN
THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN FAST TIMING OF RETURNING THIS DEEP MOISTURE
TO THE REGION LATER MONDAY...WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A PREVAILING
SHRA MENTION AT MOST SITES WITH DEEPER CONVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT
VCTS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS BY LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP CONTINUED MVFR/IFR IN PLACE WITH RAINFALL
FINALLY TAPERING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO
DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. OVERALL...FLYING CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER POOR AT TIMES
FOR MID AND LATE WEEK DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW
CLOUDS ESPCLY MOUNTAINS...PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS...AND PATCHY
FOG.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/RAB/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1009 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL HEAD INTO
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...STALLING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN FINALLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST BY MIDWEEK. FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...KEEPING AN UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT SUNDAY...
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPILL EAST/SE TOWARD AND
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE SO WILL HANG ON TO THE GOING WATCH A WHILE
LONGER AND PERHAPS DROP AROUND 11 PM PENDING TRENDS. HOWEVER
EARLIER HRRR WAS ON TRACK WITH CELLS EVOLVING INTO A LINE AND
DIPPING SOUTH SO WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS GOING FARTHER SOUTH GIVEN
LINGERING 1500 J/KG MLCAPE SEEN OFF THE SPC ANALYSIS. ALSO
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NW NC TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE MAY
IMPACT SOUTHERN SECTIONS LONGER OVERNIGHT SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
OTRW FEW ADDED CHANGES UNTIL CONVECTION FADES SOME AS THE
REMAINDER LOOKS ON TRACK FOR NOW.
UPDATE AS OF 750 PM EDT SUNDAY...
UPDATE TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 135 FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTH AND WEST UNTIL MIDNIGHT. STORMS CONTINUE TO ROLL ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY. ENOUGH RECOVERY HAS OCCURRED SINCE
EARLIER RAINFALL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO MAINTAIN SEVERE
STRENGTH UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE
DEEPER CONVECTION REMAINS IFFY GIVEN LESS CAPE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. FEW OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 320 PM EDT SUNDAY...
FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN UPPER WAVES. LOOKING FURTHER
WEST...ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE OVER KY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
UPPER SHORTWAVE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES. AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING
THIS WAVE IS GOING TO NOSE EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THINKING IS THE SAME AS
EARLIER...IN THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY
EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A SCT/BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
POSSIBLY SHIFTING EAST/SOUTHEAST FROM SE WV TO THE PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. SVR PARAMETERS FAVOR STRONGER STORMS IN WV/KY/FAR SW
VA...BUT WEAKEN FURTHER EAST...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT STRONGER STORMS
TO THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING. ORIENTATION OF THE CONVECTION AND
SPEED OF MOVEMENT SHOULD PREVENT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT...THOUGH
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE 1 INCH+ WE HAD EARLIER
TODAY IN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. STILL NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLOOD
WATCH.
FOR LATE TONIGHT...SHOWERS WANE AND WILL SEE CONTINUED SW ALOFT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY GIVEN HIGHER
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LVLS. FOG PARAMETERS ALSO FAVOR GOOD COVERAGE OF
FOG ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS AND WHERE IT RAINS THIS
EVENING...DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE
CONVECTION.
MONDAY...WE WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT MOVE FROM THE EASTERN OHIO
VALLEY SOUTHWEST TO MIDDLE TN IN THE MORNING...SLOWLY EAST TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING ALOFT BUT WILL STILL SEE SOME
SUNSHINE AT TIMES AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MUCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG
BY MID AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT AGREEMENT THAT THE 2ND OF
THE UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON LEADING TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. IF THE FRONT MOVES QUICKER THEN CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER
LOW LVL INSTABILITY. THE BEST SHEAR LOOKS TO SITUATE ITSELF FROM FAR
SW VA/SE KY NORTHWARD INTO THE MD/PA AREA...SO THIS COULD LEAD TO
MORE OF A WIND THREAT IN OUR FAR WRN CWA...WITH MARGINALLY STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS EAST.
BETTER LOW LVL AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DOES NOT REALLY GET GOING
UNTIL AFTER 21Z/5PM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SO COULD BE ANOTHER LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING EVENT.
WITH NO WEDGE MONDAY AND DEPENDING ON SKY COVER...TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER 80S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT SUBJECTING AREA TO NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS. PENDING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST
STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
SEND ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY...BEGINNING A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. OTHER THAN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...NOT
MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. FRONTAL LIFT WILL PROVIDE A
BETTER CHANCE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FAVOR READINGS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TUMBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. 85H
TEMPS OF 0 TO +5 DEG C ARE PROGGED TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND IF THIS VERIFIES...IT WILL SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS THE UPPER
LOW PASSES OVERHEAD...COLD POOL ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING FOR A DAILY THREAT OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS.
CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT PER BLOCKY LOOK TO THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN...WITH CUTOFF LOWS ON THE WEST AND EAST COASTS AND
A RIDGE UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. UNLIKE THE LAST OMEGA BLOCK
WHERE THE MID ATLANTIC ENJOYED UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...JUST THE OPPOSITE IS OCCURRING THIS GO
ROUND.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE MODELS INDICATE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EAST TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
MODERATING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
ATTM...WEEKEND AS A WHOLE LOOKS DRY. WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INSTABILITY...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE MUCH COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SUNDAY...
UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA FROM THE WEST WITH SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO THE KLWB-KBLF VICINITY
BETWEEN 00-01Z/8-9PM. STORMS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PENDING IF A
STORM MOVES DIRECTLY OVER ONE OF THE AIRPORTS. SHOULD SEE SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST PERHAPS IN LINE FORMATION
TOWARD KROA/KBCB AFTER DARK BEFORE WEAKENING. LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MVFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT AT THESE
LOCATIONS. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY HEADING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE GIVEN LESS INSTABILITY AND LOSS OF HEATING. FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE OUT ANY SHRA MENTION AT KDAN WHILE INCLUDING A VCSH AT KLYH.
ONCE THE UPSTREAM WAVE MOVES EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...A BREAK IN THE
SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WEST VA WHERE ADDED BANDS OF SHRA COULD REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BY EARLY MONDAY. OTRW QUESTION WILL BE LOW LVL MOISTURE
LEADING TO LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS DESPITE EXODUS OF THE WEDGE.
HOWEVER GIVEN MOISTURE AND ADDED RAINFALL IN SPOTS THIS
EVENING...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR IN FOG/STRATUS MOST
LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT. ALSO LIFR POSSIBLE AT KLWB IF SKIES CLEAR
FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT AND OVERALL IFR ELSEWHERE EXCEPT MVFR AT
KBLF/KROA.
AS SW FLOW KICKS IN MONDAY MORNING A TRANSITION TO SCT/BKN VFR
CIGS TO TAKE PLACE AT ALL SITES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED IN
THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN FAST TIMING OF RETURNING THIS DEEP MOISTURE
TO THE REGION LATER MONDAY...WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A PREVAILING
SHRA MENTION AT MOST SITES WITH DEEPER CONVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT
VCTS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS BY LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP CONTINUED MVFR/IFR IN PLACE WITH RAINFALL
FINALLY TAPERING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO
DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. OVERALL...FLYING CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER POOR AT TIMES
FOR MID AND LATE WEEK DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW
CLOUDS ESPCLY MOUNTAINS...PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS...AND PATCHY
FOG.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/RAB/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
220 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...
WEDGE FRONT VERY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LAPS ANALYSIS AND GOES-R
PROVING GROUND MVFR/IFR GRAPHIC...NOW NEAR A LWB-ROA-MWK. LOW
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
SHARP LINE NOTED FROM JUST OVC250 CIGS AT BCB/BLF/LWB TO CIGS AOB
100 ROA/DAN/LYH. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEDGE FRONT WEST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE CWA BY THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME. AS THE WEDGE
DEEPENS AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER TOP OF THE
SHALLOW WEDGE...WOULD EXPECT -DZ TO EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE
AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY FRONT. BONAFIDE -RA OR
-SHRA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMANATING FROM A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. EJECT ENE-NE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WEDGE COULD POTENTIALLY BREAK LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD
THE KBLF/KMKJ/KTNB AREA...BUT MOST LIKELY THIS WILL NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AFT 00Z.
T/TD GRIDS GENERALLY ON TARGET THIS HOUR. ADJUST POPS DOWNWARD
OVERNIGHT...THEN WENT ALONG WITH ADVERTISED LIKELY POPS BY 15Z
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EITHER HIGH OR
LOW CLOUDS ENVELOPE MUCH OF THE REGION THIS HOUR...SO HAVE
INCREASED CLOUDS TOWARD 100 PERCENT FROM THIS POINT FORWARD IN
TIME.
AS OF 845 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SQUEEZE PLAY OF CLOUDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE PERSISTENT FAR EASTERN WEDGE OOZES BACK TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE WHILE MID/HIGH CANOPY INCREASES FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
RETURN WARM ADVECTION TO THE SW. LATEST NAM ALSO QUITE MOIST WITH
THE WEDGE ENHANCING OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM OTHER SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF TRAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ESPCLY NE. THEREFORE BEEFED
UP CLOUDS AND INCLUDED SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE BACK WEST TO NEAR
ROANOKE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MAIN ASPECT WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE WITH DEEPENING CLOUD CANOPY ALTHOUGH
APPEARS ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THINGS DRY OVERNIGHT ESPCLY GIVEN
THE UPSTREAM MCS DIVING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST HRRR ABOUT THE
ONLY GUIDANCE SHOWING ANY RAINFALL OVER THE FAR WEST LATE BUT
APPEARS OVERDONE GIVEN ONLY WEAK FORECAST SOUTH/SE FLOW AND LITTLE
SUPPORT ALOFT UNTIL SATURDAY. THUS WILL KEEP TREND OF BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF DRIZZLE...WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW COOLER 40S WESTERN VALLEYS
IF CLOUDS STAY THIN LONGER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE STILL HOLDING ON OVER THE PIEDMONT MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AS
FAR AS CLOUDS GO. TEMPERATURES RANGING WIDELY FROM AROUND 80 IN THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE ROANOKE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEY...TO AROUND 60 OUT TOWARD BUCKINGHAM TO KEYSVILLE.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST OF LYH.
MODELS ARE FAVORING SOME TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD AGAIN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH.
WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THE MCS OVER WRN TN THIS AFTERNOON MOVES.
MODELS TAKE IT EAST TO NORTHEAST TOWARD ERN KY BY 12Z
SATURDAY...WEAKENING IT. SHOULD START TO SEE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA AROUND 8-10AM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
IN THE WEDGE. THINK THE HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES BEHIND SHORTWAVE
TONIGHT WILL BRING A STRONGER WEDGE TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY...AS
EVIDENCED BY THE SFC LI FIELD IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH SHOULD SEE A
COOLER DAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
OUTSIDE THE WEDGE LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
MODELS FAVOR THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LOW LVL CONVERGENCE/UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVE ACROSS WV/FAR WRN VA ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE KEPT
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO HIGH CHANCE EAST. THUNDER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO A FAR
SW VA TO NW NC MTN LINE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ISOLATED. NO SEVERE
THREAT EXPECT TOMORROW DUE TO WEDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
FOR WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD AND COLD FRONT FRONT TRAILING SOUTH WILL MOVES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DAMPEN OUR
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE WEDGE WILL BE LOSING
ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND WE WILL ENTER THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WITH
HEALTHY CAPES AND SOME SHEAR MAY BE ADEQUATE TO CREATE SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION SUNDAY. THE DAY THREE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACED
OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES AS PWATS WILL BE RUNNING WELL OVER ONE
INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO OUR RECENT WET SPELL.
TRAINING OF CELLS AND RAIN RATES WILL BE IMPORTANT WITH THESE STORMS
WITH ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
50S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE EAST. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN
THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
TIMING OF THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS A CHALLENGE. LOOKS LIKE
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH WITH A LOW ON TUESDAY TO
PROVIDE US WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY GFS AND
ECMWF...DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN LOW PRESSURE AND ITS TIMING ALONG
WITH THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH TO OUR WEST IN OHIO
VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DECIDED TO KEEP
SCATTERED POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO
THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH
UNCERTAINTY...HELD ON TO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 50 IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY ON A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...
WEDGE FRONT VERY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LAPS ANALYSIS AND GOES-R
PROVING GROUND MVFR/IFR GRAPHIC...NOW NEAR A LWB-ROA-MWK. LOW
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
SHARP LINE NOTED FROM JUST OVC250 CIGS AT BCB/BLF/LWB TO CIGS AOB
100 ROA/DAN/LYH. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEDGE FRONT WEST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE CWA BY THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME. AS THE WEDGE
DEEPENS AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER TOP OF THE
SHALLOW WEDGE...WOULD EXPECT -DZ TO EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE
AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY FRONT. BONAFIDE -RA OR
-SHRA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMANATING FROM A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. EJECT ENE-NE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WEDGE COULD POTENTIALLY BREAK LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD
THE KBLF/KMKJ/KTNB AREA...BUT MOST LIKELY THIS WILL NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AFT 00Z.
CIGS STILL VFR AT KBLF/KLWB/KBCB. GIVEN THAT KROA IS ALREADY
LIFR...WOULD EXPECT KBCB TO TREND THAT WAY WITHIN THE NEXT TWO
HOURS. SHOULD TAKE UNTIL 08Z-10Z TO REACH KLWB...AND PROBABLY
12Z-13Z FOR KBLF. ONE THE WEDGE EVOLVES THE REGION FROM THE
EAST...EXPECT IFR-LIFR CIGS TO HOLD UNTIL 18Z OR SO...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY LOW END MVFR. VSBYS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY
DAYBREAK...EXPECT POSSIBLY KBLF...WHICH SHOULD HOLD ONTO VFR UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY. -DZ SHOULD EVOLVE IN UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE/ALLEGHANY FRONT BY EARLY TO MID-MORNING...THEN -RA OR-SHRA
BY 18Z AND BEYOND AS NOTED ABOVE. STILL DO NOT FORESEE MUCH WORSE
THAN MVFR VSBYS THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WEST OF THE WEDGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST
6-9KTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
7-10KTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LOW END GUSTS DEVELOPING
DURING THE MORNING KBLF VICINITY...AND POSSIBLY OTHER
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LIKELY IMPROVING TO
MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE ERODES...SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND
THE REGION MOVES INTO THE WARM SECTOR. SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO
SEVERE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SITUATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION...BUT PERHAPS MORE
ACTIVITY NORTH-WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS TIME AROUND THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS
GA/SC/NC SUN NIGHT-TUE...LIKELY PROLONGING SUB-VFR CIGS AND
POTENTIALLY LEAVING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THE MID AND LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...WHICH WILL LEAVE THE REGION WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...DS/RAB/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
838 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.UPDATE...
A STRONG/WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION IS ROLLING
ACROSS CENTRAL IL...OVER THE PEORIA/BLOOMINGTON AREA...HEADED FOR
FORT WAYNE INDIANA OVERNIGHT. IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS AND
DEFORMATION IS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
THE SRN TIER OF COUNTIES ALONG THE STATE LINE. THE RAIN IS
INTENSIFYING OVER ILLINOIS AND DRYING UP OVER WISCONSIN AS THE
FORCING BECOMES MORE FOCUSED AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES EAST. SOME
OF THE BETTER RAINFALL COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEAST WALWORTH AND
KENOSHA COUNTIES THIS EVENING. LOTS OF DRIZZLE EXTENDS NORTH INTO
OZAUKEE/WASHINGTON COUNTIES...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY SOUTH OF
MILWAUKEE. LOOK FOR THE PRECIP TO WIND DOWN BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE.
MONDAY STARTS OUT SUNNY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS. TEMPS
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT FOR YOU FOLKS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
IFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL IMPROVE TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS SCOOTS QUICKLY EAST AND WE GET INTO A DRIER
FLOW. THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD HELP TO
IMPROVE CONDITIONS QUICKLY. CLEARING SKIES WILL WORK NORTH TO
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. KMSN SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NORTHERLY WINDS KICKING IN
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH RAIN CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO COME
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITIES EXPANDING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP MUCH OF THE
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ARE FARTHER NORTH AND WETTER. MESOSCALE MODELS SEEM TO
AGREE WITH THE WETTER SOLUTIONS...SO KEPT LIKELY GOING IN THE FAR
SOUTH. MIGHT NEED TO BUMP POPS UP THOUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
GIVEN LATEST RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS. RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHEAST
BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY...THOUGH WILL SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS AWAY FROM
THE LAKE. SHOULD SEE TEMPS RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR
COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH DEPARTS SOUTHERN WI. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY LOOK MILD WITH
SOME SUN. THEN PRECIP LOOKS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT. THERE IS GOOD SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM A STRONG
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITHIN A DEEP GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 90KT JET. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH CAPE SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WHILE OTHER
MODELS SHOW MUCH LESS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
BRISK NORTH WINDS. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING PRECIP LINGERING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER SOUTHEAST WI
SO HAVE LOW POPS THROUGH THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A MID
LEVEL RIDGE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY THEN A THERMAL RIDGE
SETTLES IN BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE CANADIAN AND GFS
SHOW SOME PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT FORCING
IS WEAK SO KEPT FORECAST DRY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO
SUNDAY ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER BUT INSTABILITY
DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES COOL SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW DRIFTS TOWARD THE REGION.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
A LARGE AREA OF CLEARING CONTINUES TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
NOW SEEING SOME LOWER CLOUDS ADVECTING BACK IN FROM THE EAST. STILL
SEEMS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN OR NEAR MVFR
CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR NORTH. SHOULD BE VFR
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY IN THE NIGHT...WITH VFR
PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME RAIN IN AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SHOULD SEE
RAIN WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ARE STILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW. DID CHANGE THE
END OF THE SOUTHERN ZONE ADVISORY TO 00Z...AS WINDS SHOULD BE EASING
BY THEN.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MARQUARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1036 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS....COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH IMPACTING THE COAST AND INLAND VALLEYS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY LASTING
INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:01 PM PDT SUNDAY...ACCORDING TO THE
EXPERIMENTAL GOES R IFR PROBABILITY SATELLITE IMAGE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ARE WORKING THEIR WAY UP THE BIG SUR AND SANTA CRUZ COAST AT
THIS HOUR. HALF MOON BAY IS ALSO REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
LOW CLOUDS. THIS SOUTHERLY SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
CONTINUE NORTHWARD IMPACTING THE COAST AND INLAND VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUN OF THE
HRRR FORECAST MODEL...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE
INLAND VALLEYS NOT LONG AFTER SUN RISE...BUT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH LATE MORNING.
THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
ALBERTA CANADA. THE 0000Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED
WELL WITH THESE FEATURES AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT SATURDAY.
BOTH OF THESE MODELS SLIDE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH TOWARDS CALIFORNIA...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
SPREADING SOUTH WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
UPPER LEVEL AIR OF THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD SUPPORT A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ENTERING
ARIZONA...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN A GOOD POSITION FOR WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE DOES
A REASONABLE JOB WITH THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS SO NO
UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE
COAST WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE MRY BAY AREA EARLY
TONIGHT AND PARTS OF THE SFO BAY AREA LATE TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...SCT-BKN010 FROM 12Z THROUGH 16Z.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH 17Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE
COAST WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. A MODERATE SWELL WILL MIX
WITH A SMALLER LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THIS WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1011 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.Synopsis...
Threat of afternoon showers and thunderstorms continues over the
mountains into Tuesday then a more widespread chance Wednesday
into Friday. Cooling to near normal midweek.
&&
.Discussion...
Scattered thunderstorms developed earlier today over the mountains
with isolated over the valley. Activity has diminished this
evening with skies turning mostly clear with generally light
winds. Current forecast is on track and no evening update will be
needed.
.Previous Discussion...
Thunderstorms and showers have developed along the western Sierra
slopes this afternoon. Current radar shows that most of the
thunderstorms are in El Dorado county and southward along the
Sierra. Latest HRRR run is showing that showers/thunderstorms will
gradually spread northward along the Sierra...reaching up to
around the Quincy-Chester area. HRRR also shows that
showers/thunderstorms could move into the foothills, especially
the Motherlode region along with some showers possible in the
Northern San Joaquin Valley this evening around Stockton and
Modesto. All shower activity should diminish by 9-10 pm tonight.
In the meantime, if you hear thunder, stay indoors for shelter to
avoid dangerous lightning and possible hail.
Meso low weakens over NorCal Monday although some lingering
chances for showers/thunderstorms possible along the higher
elevations of the Sierra. By Tuesday, a deep upper trough over the
Eastern Pacific Ocean will move into the West Coast which will
continue the threat of afternoon mountain showers and
thunderstorms. High temps trend down slightly on Tuesday as
synoptic cooling and onshore flow gradually increase over Interior
NorCal.
More notable cooling (5-10 degrees) on Wednesday as the
center of the low gets closer to interior NorCal. Valley highs
will be around the mid 70s with 50s and 60s along foothills and
mountains. Chance of showers will become more widespread on
Wednesday, covering much of our CWA. Instability with this low
will keep a slight chance of thunderstorm development in the mix,
too. JBB
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)
Forecast models are in decent agreement as to the position and
timing of the upper level low track and progression starting at the
beginning of the long term forecast period. The high amplitude
trough of low pressure is a bit quicker as advertised by the GFS
heading into late Wednesday night to early Thursday morning, while
the ECMWF has the arrival into NorCal more into the early to mid
morning hours on Thursday. In either scenario, the incoming storm
system will bring the needed lift behind enough moisture to bring
showers and thunderstorm chances for the entire forecast area. The
system will not move very quick, and cool temperatures along with
chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through next
weekend.
A cool down of temperatures is expected with a return to near normal
high temperatures in the low to mid 70s in the valley, 50s to 60s in
the foothills, and the low to mid 40s in the higher elevations on
Thursday and Friday. Temperatures should return to slightly above
normal temperatures in the valley next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the terminals for the next 24
hours. A slight chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Cascade
range this afternoon and evening. Breezy north winds gusting to 20
mph over the Sacramento valley and foothills decreasing after 00z
today.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
230 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
UPDATE...
AFTER AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO QUIET DOWN ACROSS MOST
AREAS. STILL A ZONE OF MLCAPE HOWEVER IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG SO
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED...WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF POPS
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IN STORE
FOR MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
DEESE
PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. CURRENTLY...THERE IS A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM BACK ACROSS MS/AL. THE HRRR HAD A
GOOD HANDLE THIS MORNING ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
EXPECTED CONVECTION SO LEANING THAT DIRECTING IN THE SHORT TERM.
THE HIGH RES HRRR SHOWS A DIURNAL TREND WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SHOWING THEM CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA THEN DIMINISHING BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. WE ARE CURRENTLY
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA FOR TODAY
AND MONDAY. THIS DOES LOOK GOOD AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY STAYS ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE A VERY SIMILAR DAY
MONDAY WITH WHEN AND WHERE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP BACK
UP MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.
01
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS STILL IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED. THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
17
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF ON A STORMY NOTE...BUT IS OVERALL
UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. STRONG SHORTWAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH BEST INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR AHEAD OF IT. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
EXPECT STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BE
MORE ORGANIZED AND PUSH THROUGH THE STATE RATHER QUICKLY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND AT THIS TIME SPC
DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA HIGHLIGHTED IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL STILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE STATE. POPS WEDNESDAY TAPER
OFF QUICKLY...THOUGH MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC AT THIS TIME.
CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT DRY/COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LARGELY DOMINATE OVER THE
AREA. ASIDE FROM SOME MINIMAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS FAR
NORTH GEORGIA...EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE
DRY. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE WEEK DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
31
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LARGELY VFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND EXPECT TO SEE SCT MVFR LAYER DEVELOP 10-12Z. EXPECT
LATER START TO CONVECTION TODAY...IMPACTING THE TAF SITES AFTER
20Z. WINDS WILL BE SW AT 6-8KT THROUGH THE DAY. DEGRADED
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CONVECTION.
MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH 15Z.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 83 62 78 55 / 60 60 40 20
ATLANTA 81 62 74 55 / 60 60 40 10
BLAIRSVILLE 76 58 70 50 / 70 70 40 20
CARTERSVILLE 80 61 74 52 / 70 70 30 10
COLUMBUS 84 65 79 57 / 50 50 40 20
GAINESVILLE 79 61 73 54 / 60 60 40 20
MACON 86 64 81 56 / 50 50 50 20
ROME 80 60 74 51 / 70 70 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 82 61 76 53 / 60 60 40 20
VIDALIA 87 68 83 63 / 50 50 50 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1246 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
THE MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH ALLOWED MANY
REPORTS OF UP TO HALF INCH HAIL ACROSS EASTERN WILL AND SOUTHERN
COOK COUNTIES HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS DIMINISHING TREND LIKELY OWING TO CONVECTION
OUTRUNNING INSTABILITY AXIS AND WHILE STRONGEST FORCING CONTINUES
TO LIFT TO THE NORTH. EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA OVER THE NEXT HOUR...WITH ISOLATED PEA SIZE HAIL STILL
POSSIBLE. STEADIER RAIN WILL LIKELY BE MORE PREVALENT OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AS THIS
PRECIP SHIELD SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...
234 PM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF
NEXT ROUND OF PCPN. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS STILL WELL TO THE
WEST...OVER SRN IA/NRN MO...AND LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATE SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
SO...WHILE STILL FEEL THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA IS LIKELY FOR THE
REGION...IT COULD HOLD OFF FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLD TS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST NORTH
OF THE SFC WARM FRONT...AND CLOSER TO THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE THE MOST CONCENTRATED. OTHERWISE...FOR THE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AS NELY FLOW
PERSISTS OFF OF THE RELATIVELY COLD LAKE MICHIGAN WATER.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 40S NEAR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE AND REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
COOL...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S TOWARD THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND
THE UPPER 40S SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND FINALLY PUSH TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MORNING. WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD HELP SHUT OFF AND RESIDUAL
PCPN CHANCES AND BRING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST
PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM
WAVE...SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES...THOUGH WITH WINDS STILL NELY AT THE SFC...LAKEFRONT
LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REMAIN COOLER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...WITH HIGHS ALONG THE LAKEFRONT ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE
INLAND AREAS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
203 PM CDT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ELONGATED MID-LVL TROUGH WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION LATE MON
NIGHT...HEADED FOR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A BROAD
SFC RIDGE TO SLIDE SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND ALSO STEADILY ERODE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP...HOWEVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWFA COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY MON EVE BEFORE
QUICKLY ENDING. WINDS WILL BE TURNING NORTHERLY BUT WITH THE WEAK
GRADIENT SPEEDS WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH...SO EXPECT THE EROSION OF
CLOUD COVER TO BE SLOW. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S...BUT A
FEW AREAS IN FAR NORTHERN IL COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING...SO
WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME FROM INCLUDING ANY MENTION OF FROST MON
NGT.
TUE WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE BROAD SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT WILL EXTEND EAST THROUGH THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
MID-LVL RIDGE LIFTING INTO WESTERN CANADA A LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL
DRIVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE AFTN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TUE NGT...WITH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES SOUTH LATE TUE. LAPSE RATES WILL
QUICKLY STEEPEN AS THE 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS AND SFC TEMPS
TUE AFTN WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO REMAIN
MARGINAL...HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE PRESENT THAT A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER COULD OCCUR LATE TUE/EARLY WED. HAVE PUSHED POPS
UP TO LIKELY TUE EVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FORTUNATELY ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE
PROGRESSIVE AND PUSH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FURTHER EAST BY EARLY
WED...WHICH SHOULD HELP EJECT THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WED MORNING AND BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT DRIER AIR COULD
ARRIVE BY EARLY WED AFTN. BUT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND THE 50S...AND AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S WED AFTN. WED NGT ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVES WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MUCH
COLDER TEMPS...FALLING INTO THE MID/UPR 30S. AT THIS TIME HAVE
HELD OFF ON MENTION OF FROST BUT IF CLOUDS ERODE QUICKER WED EVE
THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST IS PLAUSIBLE FOR AREAS AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTH OF I-80.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... LATEST ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS FEATURE
SLIDES EAST...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH THE FOCUS TURNING
TOWARDS THE MID-LVL TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
SAT/SUN. SIMULTANEOUSLY A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO...AND COULD LAYOUT A BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL QUICKLY MODERATE FROM THE
60S TO PERHAPS LOW 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN DEPENDING ON A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT SUN COULD SEE TEMPS BACK IN THE 60S.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...THEN DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TRENDS...SOME SUGGESTING IMPROVEMENT WHILE
OTHERS SUGGEST DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LIKEWISE...
REGIONAL OBS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE ALSO REVEALED MIXED
TRENDS. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...OPTED TO NOT MAKE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE LATEST TAF. THINKING THERE WILL
BE MODEST IMPROVEMENT BACK TO LOW END MVFR AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT...THEN CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR MONDAY MORNING. IF
ANYTHING...MAY OPT TO EXTEND THE MVFR CONDITIONS LATER INTO THE
DAY MONDAY...BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL THE 09Z TAFS TO MAKE THAT
DECISION. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY...THEN APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING WITH WIND
DIRECTION BACKING TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OR BECOMING VARIABLE IN
SOME LOCATIONS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
304 PM CDT
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE NEARSHORE
WATERS ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE TO DIMINISH AS WELL. STILL
LOOKING AT BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FT TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DIMINISHING TREND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED
TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS....A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
WILL TRY TO INCREASE THE GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT AT THE MOST...BUT NOT LINGER VERY LONG. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INFLUENCES THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTH FROM CENTRAL
CANADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST
BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLIDE SOUTH AND INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND TURN
WINDS NORTHERLY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD.
SMALL CRAFT HAZARDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY FOR THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA NEARSHORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1212 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Will be updating the forecast shortly to cancel the Severe
Thunderstorm in east central and southeast IL. Potent shortwave
moving through central IL this evening combined with unstable air
and increasing deep layer shear to produce the right conditions
for a couple of supercells to track across the forecast area. A
few t-storms will linger in southeast IL until 03z or so, but
these should be well below severe limits.
In the northern part of the forecast area, a few showers
associated with the cold pool/upper low in northern IL will also
linger for another couple of hours before they rotate to the
northeast out of the region.
The rest of the night will be cloudy in central IL with chilly
temperatures in the mid 40s. Partial clearing will be in store for
southeast IL in the wake of the departing t-storms, but then
clouds will be on the increase overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows stationary frontal boundary extending
from central Indiana southwestward into the Ozarks. Ahead of the
front, temperatures have climbed into the middle 70s and SBCAPE
values have reached the 1500-2000J/kg range south of I-70. This
will be the area of the KILX CWA that will be monitored for
potential severe weather over the next few hours as an upper low
over northern Missouri/southern Iowa shears northeastward and
provides additional synoptic lift. HRRR is showing scattered
convection across the SE CWA in the warm/unstable airmass...and
additional showers/isolated thunder further northwest in closer
proximity to the upper low between now and about 02z/9pm. Given
good convergence along the frontal boundary and strong instability,
think a strong wind/large hail threat will exist with any storms
that fire south of I-70 late this afternoon into the early evening.
Once the sun sets and daytime instability wanes, the convection will
weaken and shift eastward into the Ohio River Valley by mid-evening.
After that, mostly cloudy and cool conditions will prevail for the
balance of the night, with low temperatures ranging from the middle
40s northwest of the Illinois River...to the lower 50s far southeast.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
The upper level trough and surface cyclonic flow is forecast to
remain in place over the Great Lakes region, effecting central and
southeast Illinois through the first part of the week. This will
keep partly sunny and chilly conditions in the area through Wed. In
addition, the cyclonic flow will provide enough focus for
instability showers periodically Mon through Wed. There could be a
break in the scattered pcpn Mon night and Tue, but still keeping a
slight chance of pcpn in the forecast. As the main upper level
system drops down toward Ohio, colder upper level temps will also
arrive, increasing the instability in the area. So have added a
slight chance for thunderstorms, along with the showers for Tue
night and Wed.
Beyond Wed, the pattern should begin to change and sfc ridging
should begin to build into the area. This will push the upper level
system to the east and bring drier weather to the area for the last
half of the weekend. As the high moves across the area, another
weather system will begin to develop in the plains and bring the
return of showers and thunderstorms for possibly next Sunday.
Temps will remain on the cool side through most of the week with the
continued cyclonic flow and general cloudiness. Once the high
pressure moves over the area, temps will begin to warm back up and
should reach into the 70s by the end of the week and into the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Tricky forecast overnight with potential for IFR/LIFR ceilings
across the entire TAF area of central and eastern IL. Plenty of
low level moisture is present in central IL and cyclonic flow is
present from a low in western Ohio, with a trough back toward SE
Iowa. Many of the short range models are advertising a solid IFR
ceiling setting up soon across the area. However, TAF sites from
SPI-DEC-CMI are on the southern edge of the low cloud shield,
which brings into question how quick the ceilings will drop and
stay down.
With the light north to northwest flow that has developed this
evening, the IFR ceilings should settle across the whole region
within the next few hours, and then stay there through much of the
morning hours. Due to the presence of continued surface troughing
and another approaching mid level shortwave trough, it will be
tough to erode the cloud cover Monday afternoon. Will also add
VCSH for the afternoon part of the TAFs with the approaching
shortwave. Should see some breaks in the clouds by evening at PIA
and SPI as the upper trough passes through the region, but in
eastern IL at least MVFR ceilings should persist through 06Z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Miller
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1148 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
AS OF 3 PM CDT...2 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. BREAKS IN THE STRATUS/CUMULUS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS AT 50 DEGREES. WINDS ARE NORTH AT 10-20
MPH...GUSTING 35 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA...ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING PRECIPITATION-FREE
WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. HOWEVER...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT
EAST. AS THIS HAPPENS...PRECIPITATION COULD SPREAD OVER LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES MOST PRECIPITATION
REMAINS SOUTH OF US-40. IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS...IT WILL BE LIGHT
IN NATURE...AMOUNTING TO LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. THE WEATHER
CONCERN OF HIGHEST INTEREST IS THE CHANCE FOR A FROST/FREEZE. NEAR
TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS
WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR TONIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE LOWS
LESS THAN 36 DEGREES. WITH WINDS DECREASING...FROST DEVELOPMENT IS
FORECAST GENERALLY WEST OF A NORTON KANSAS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS LINE.
A FREEZE IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EAST COLORADO. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE PASSED ALONG FROM THE MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE NOT NEEDED BECAUSE THE TRI-STATE REGION
IS NOT QUITE IN THE GROWING SEASON. RECENT SNOWFALL FURTHER
COMPLICATES THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. FOR
THESE REASONS...WILL NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING BUT
DID MENTION PATCHY/AREAS FROST IN THE FORECAST.
FOR TOMORROW...MUCH WARMER AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID
60S. LOCAL OBSERVERS INDICATE SNOW HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY MELTED SO
AFTER TODAY`S WARMER AND BREEZY WEATHER...DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY
IMPACTS FROM A REMAINING SNOW FIELD. NO PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...TODAYS NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND GEM MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM/ECWMF IN BRINGING A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT WITH QUICK
CLEARING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY LEADING TO A SUNNY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. MAY SEE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF MOISTURE WITH A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
LOWS 30 TO 35 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH INTO MEXICO MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S WEST TO EAST. HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO CLOSE OFF OFF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTH THURSDAY AND MOVING ASHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FOR OUR PART OF THE WORLD THE RIDGE AXIS THAT IS
INITIALLY TO OUR WEST MOVES OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY EAST
WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ABOVE MENTIONED
UPPER LOW. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF BRING
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY EAST ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST EXTENDED FORECAST PROCEDURE HAS REMOVED
PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WHICH I SUPPOSE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS LIMITED
TO THE MID LEVELS AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND. SOMETHING FOR LATER
FORECASTS TO WATCH. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL START TO INCREASE AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. MAY FLIRT
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH MID 40S
TO LOW 50S THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THURSDAYS HIGHS LOOK GOOD...FRIDAYS 850MB
TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN THE 20C TO 25C RANGE (ABOUT 5-
10F WARMER) COMPARED TO THURSDAY. MEX GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH WIDESPREAD 80S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA
I SUPPOSE THE CLOUDS AND THE SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE WIND MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT FULL MIXING AND MEX GUIDANCE VALUES SO FOR
NOW WILL KEEP IT AS IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...FOR THIS MODEL RUN DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE
NEVADA/CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER AREA. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
GFS/ECMWF HAVE BETTER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH DRY AIR ALOFT
TO THE WEST. EXTENDED PROCEDURE HAS BETTER POPS OVER THE AREA WHERE
DRIER AIR EXISTS AND LOWER POPS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS. TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO
WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT PRESENT TIME AND KEEP SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH GENERALLY SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S (WEST
TO EAST) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S (WEST TO EAST). THIS
SEEMS A BIT COOL COMPARED TO 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 21-25C RANGE
WHICH UNDER FULL MIXING SUPPORT READINGS ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER
AND CLOSER TO THE MEX GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...A RATHER LARGE AREA OF LOW MOISTURE IN THE
850-500MB LAYER COVERS THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHICH
WOULD NOT SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES INCREASE A BIT SUNDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE WHERE BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS AND EXTENDED
FORECAST PROCEDURE HANDLED THIS MUCH BETTER. AFTER MORNING LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 40S TO MID 50S
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
SHOULD AT LEAST REACH ADVERTISED READINGS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70
WEST...LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE BORDER. 850MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST READINGS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND
GLD. CLOUDS COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AFTER 00Z MONDAY
EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING BETWEEN 00Z-
06Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1230 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
...Updated Short Term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Cloud canopy across SW Kansas will gradually erode through the
morning hours, as weak shortwave moves east. Atmosphere dries out
substantially on Monday, allowing for much more sunshine.
Afternoon temperatures will recover nicely from Sunday`s
unseasonably cold readings, into the lower 60s, but this is still
about 10 degrees below normal for early May. Still a much more
pleasant day for Monday, given NW winds much more behaved at only
10-20 mph.
A mostly clear sky overnight will allow radiational cooling to
send temperatures below normal again, with lows at sunrise Tuesday
morning ranging from the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Some increase
in cloud cover towards dawn Tuesday, as a weak shortwave
approaches from the north.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
An upper level lobe of energy will move southward across the
Northern Plains and into the Central Plains Monday night into
Tuesday. The only way this will affect the weather pattern at the
surface is to push the dome of high pressure south into the
Southern Plains. Cloud cover will continue to decrease during this
time frame with winds shifting to more of a northwest direction.
An upper level ridge will then build above the Rockies Tuesday
night through Thursday then shift eastward into the Plains
Thursday night into Friday. No significant weather is expected
during this time frame with mostly clear skies and dry conditions.
Meanwhile, a large upper level low is progged to move into the
Western United States Thursday and Friday then over the Four
Corners this weekend. Mid to upper level cloudiness will increase
as this feature approaches with winds shifting to the south.
Precipitation chances increase across the area this weekend with a
few storms possibly becoming severe Saturday afternoon and again
Sunday afternoon. Confidence is still low on the timing and
position of this system so future runs will be looked at closely.
A warming trend is expected through Friday with highs reaching
into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees by Friday. Lows look to
start out around 40 degrees Monday night then slowly rise into the
low to mid 50s by this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Scattered -SHRA near DDC will end over the next few hours. Much
improved flying weather on Monday, with VFR expected. Decreasing
clouds through 12z, followed by only scattered clouds or SKC
Monday afternoon. After 15z Monday, NW surface winds of 10-20 kts,
with winds going light and variable around 00z Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 38 62 40 69 / 30 10 10 10
GCK 38 62 39 69 / 20 10 10 0
EHA 37 60 38 69 / 60 10 10 10
LBL 39 62 37 70 / 60 10 10 10
HYS 39 63 40 70 / 20 10 10 0
P28 42 65 42 72 / 50 10 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
...Updated Aviation...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Realigned pop/weather/QPF grids for the rest of tonight, to match
radar and HRRR trends. Rain showers will continue south and SE of
Dodge City for the next several hours, with light rainfall
amounts, before ending by sunrise. No other changes.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Light to moderate rain showers will continue across the southern
half of the CWA this evening spreading northeastward overnight.
This is due to a weak shortwave moving over the area. Otherwise
expect mostly cloudy skies through tonight. These showers are
expected to diminish by sunrise tomorrow with decreasing
cloudiness throughout the day tomorrow. Winds will generally be
from a northerly direction through tomorrow as a dome of high
pressure sits across the area. Below normal temperatures continue
with lows tonight ranging from the lower 30s across portions of
west central Kansas to lower 40s across portions of south central
Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to reach into the lower 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
An upper level lobe of energy will move southward across the
Northern Plains and into the Central Plains Monday night into
Tuesday. The only way this will affect the weather pattern at the
surface is to push the dome of high pressure south into the
Southern Plains. Cloud cover will continue to decrease during this
time frame with winds shifting to more of a northwest direction.
An upper level ridge will then build above the Rockies Tuesday
night through Thursday then shift eastward into the Plains
Thursday night into Friday. No significant weather is expected
during this time frame with mostly clear skies and dry conditions.
Meanwhile, a large upper level low is progged to move into the
Western United States Thursday and Friday then over the Four
Corners this weekend. Mid to upper level cloudiness will increase
as this feature approaches with winds shifting to the south.
Precipitation chances increase across the area this weekend with a
few storms possibly becoming severe Saturday afternoon and again
Sunday afternoon. Confidence is still low on the timing and
position of this system so future runs will be looked at closely.
A warming trend is expected through Friday with highs reaching
into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees by Friday. Lows look to
start out around 40 degrees Monday night then slowly rise into the
low to mid 50s by this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Scattered -SHRA near DDC will end over the next few hours. Much
improved flying weather on Monday, with VFR expected. Decreasing
clouds through 12z, followed by only scattered clouds or SKC
Monday afternoon. After 15z Monday, NW surface winds of 10-20 kts,
with winds going light and variable around 00z Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 38 63 41 69 / 30 10 10 10
GCK 38 63 41 69 / 20 10 0 0
EHA 37 61 41 69 / 60 10 10 10
LBL 39 62 41 70 / 60 10 10 10
HYS 39 62 40 70 / 20 10 0 0
P28 42 64 42 72 / 50 10 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1129 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...AS A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NEGLIGIBLE INSTABILITY AND
WEAKENING FORCING WILL KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIT FAR EASTERN KANSAS MONDAY MORNING. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO SOME SUN BY AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AS AN ELONGATED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INSERT POPS. HIGHS TUESDAY
WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOW 70S.
ADK
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING
WEEK...AS MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY
PROGRESSES OVER MID-AMERICA FROM THE WEST. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ASSOCIATED GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A HIGH AMPLITUDE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MATERIALIZING THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NORTHWARD TRANSPORT
OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONSEQUENTLY...WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES LIKELY EMANATING FROM THIS
LONGWAVE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. AS PREVIOUS
FORECAST ALLUDED TOO...QUALITY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE STUNTED
DUE TO PROXIMITY OF SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH INGREDIENTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR A FEW
EPISODES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO REFINE
DETAILS THIS FAR OUT.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM OVER SW KS...WILL SLIDE E-NE ACROSS KS/OK
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MID-LEVEL MOISTENING/CONVERGENCE...
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAY LEAD TO SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SRN KS EARLY MON MORNING. SO WILL INCLUDE
A VCSH MENTION FOR KHUT/KICT AND KCNU. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS IN AND AROUND THE SHOWERS AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOWERS
CEILINGS SOME OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO AGAIN BECOME VFR FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
MONDAY...AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA...AFTER THE WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 42 64 43 73 / 20 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 41 64 41 73 / 20 10 10 10
NEWTON 41 62 42 71 / 20 10 10 10
ELDORADO 43 62 42 71 / 30 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 42 64 42 73 / 30 10 10 10
RUSSELL 40 64 40 72 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 39 64 40 71 / 20 10 10 10
SALINA 42 65 41 73 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 41 64 41 72 / 20 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 46 64 42 72 / 30 20 0 10
CHANUTE 45 63 42 71 / 30 20 0 10
IOLA 45 62 41 70 / 30 20 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 44 63 41 72 / 30 20 0 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...BDK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1028 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Realigned pop/weather/QPF grids for the rest of tonight, to match
radar and HRRR trends. Rain showers will continue south and SE of
Dodge City for the next several hours, with light rainfall
amounts, before ending by sunrise. No other changes.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Light to moderate rain showers will continue across the southern
half of the CWA this evening spreading northeastward overnight.
This is due to a weak shortwave moving over the area. Otherwise
expect mostly cloudy skies through tonight. These showers are
expected to diminish by sunrise tomorrow with decreasing
cloudiness throughout the day tomorrow. Winds will generally be
from a northerly direction through tomorrow as a dome of high
pressure sits across the area. Below normal temperatures continue
with lows tonight ranging from the lower 30s across portions of
west central Kansas to lower 40s across portions of south central
Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to reach into the lower 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
An upper level lobe of energy will move southward across the
Northern Plains and into the Central Plains Monday night into
Tuesday. The only way this will affect the weather pattern at the
surface is to push the dome of high pressure south into the
Southern Plains. Cloud cover will continue to decrease during this
time frame with winds shifting to more of a northwest direction.
An upper level ridge will then build above the Rockies Tuesday
night through Thursday then shift eastward into the Plains
Thursday night into Friday. No significant weather is expected
during this time frame with mostly clear skies and dry conditions.
Meanwhile, a large upper level low is progged to move into the
Western United States Thursday and Friday then over the Four
Corners this weekend. Mid to upper level cloudiness will increase
as this feature approaches with winds shifting to the south.
Precipitation chances increase across the area this weekend with a
few storms possibly becoming severe Saturday afternoon and again
Sunday afternoon. Confidence is still low on the timing and
position of this system so future runs will be looked at closely.
A warming trend is expected through Friday with highs reaching
into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees by Friday. Lows look to
start out around 40 degrees Monday night then slowly rise into the
low to mid 50s by this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
MVFR cigs for the beginning of the TAF pd with improvement to VFR
around 02Z. Otherwise, mid level clouds will prevail through the pd.
Winds will be northerly 5-15 kt bcmg northwesterly overnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 38 63 41 69 / 30 10 10 10
GCK 38 63 41 69 / 20 10 0 0
EHA 37 61 41 69 / 60 10 10 10
LBL 39 62 41 70 / 60 10 10 10
HYS 39 62 40 70 / 20 10 0 0
P28 42 64 42 72 / 50 10 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
422 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WRN
NORTH AMERICA WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NORTH
AMERICA INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED
IN A WEAK NW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE
REGION CLOUD-FREE OVERNIGHT. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
SHALLOW PATCHY FOG AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING OVER IRONWOOD AREA
WHERE SFC OBS INDICATE CONDITIONS NEAR SATURATION AND WHERE SFC HIGH
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE AT 12Z. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE WITH DIURNAL MIXING.
TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL AGAIN ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE REACHING THE FARTHEST
INLAND. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CU DEVELOPMENT
ALONG LAKE BREEZES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA IN THE EVENING WILL SLIDE SE LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NRN ONTARIO. ADVANCING
WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING FROM
DEVELOPING SW GRADIENT WIND BTWN DEPARTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FALLING TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER...UNTIL THEN GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO LOWER NEAR
THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS INTERIOR WEST AND
CENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
TUESDAY...A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WILL BRING THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN TO
UPPER MICHIGAN IN OVER A WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SSE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...INITIATING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY INCREASING MID TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S
INLAND. ADDITIONALLY...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25MPH FOR THE WEST LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
AFTER A WEEK OF DRYING...FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED FOR
TUESDAY. FIRE WX INDICES FOR ALL FUELS...ESPECIALLY GRASSY
FUELS...HAVE BEEN BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AREAS OF
MOST CONCERN INCLUDE THE INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE SE HALF IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SLOW WHILE
CROSSING THE REGION...RESULTING IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
INLAND AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. BLUSTERY NNW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS...TEMPS IN THE 40S...WILL PRODUCE A RATHER CHILLY DAY FOR
EARLY MAY. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR MAY FAIL TO
REACH 40F.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
QUICKER WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH A SURGE OF WARMER
AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...HAVE TRENDED WARMER
WITH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS LOOKS TO TOP OUT WELL IN THE 70S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WEST. WINDS LOOK RATHER LIGHT...SO FIRE WX CONCERNS
WILL BE LOWER ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMING AT KIWD FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. WL
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIFR FOG TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO
20 KNOTS. AS RIDGE SAGS SE TONIGHT...WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME
N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH WINDS TO
LESS THAN 20KT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
401 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A REX BLOCK OVER WRN NOAM
RESULTING IN WEAK NW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING N TO NE
WINDS INTO MOST OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WAS WEAK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. VIS LOOP
SHOWED CU OVER THE INLAND WEST AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREA IN
THE E HALF.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO UPPER MI WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WEST
AND TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER THE REST OF THE CWA.
MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHRTWV
REMAINING WELL TO THE SE OVER THE ERN LAKES. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL
AGAIN ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR
BREEZE REACHING THE FARTHEST INLAND. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MI 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH CU DEVELPMENT SIMILAR TO TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
TUESDAY...A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WILL BRING THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN TO
UPPER MICHIGAN IN OVER A WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SSE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...INITIATING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY INCREASING MID TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S
INLAND. ADDITIONALLY...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25MPH FOR THE WEST LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
AFTER A WEEK OF DRYING...FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED FOR
TUESDAY. FIRE WX INDICES FOR ALL FUELS...ESPECIALLY GRASSY
FUELS...HAVE BEEN BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AREAS OF
MOST CONCERN INCLUDE THE INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE SE HALF IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SLOW WHILE
CROSSING THE REGION...RESULTING IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
INLAND AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. BLUSTERY NNW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS...TEMPS IN THE 40S...WILL PRODUCE A RATHER CHILLY DAY FOR
EARLY MAY. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR MAY FAIL TO
REACH 40F.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
QUICKER WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH A SURGE OF WARMER
AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...HAVE TRENDED WARMER
WITH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS LOOKS TO TOP OUT WELL IN THE 70S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WEST. WINDS LOOK RATHER LIGHT...SO FIRE WX CONCERNS
WILL BE LOWER ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMING AT KIWD FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. WL
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIFR FOG TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 20 KNOTS. WSW
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
224 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A REX BLOCK OVER WRN NOAM
RESULTING IN WEAK NW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING N TO NE
WINDS INTO MOST OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WAS WEAK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. VIS LOOP
SHOWED CU OVER THE INLAND WEST AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREA IN
THE E HALF.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO UPPER MI WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WEST
AND TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER THE REST OF THE CWA.
MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHRTWV
REMAINING WELL TO THE SE OVER THE ERN LAKES. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL
AGAIN ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR
BREEZE REACHING THE FARTHEST INLAND. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MI 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH CU DEVELPMENT SIMILAR TO TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
THROUGH THE WEEK...RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF VARYING
AMPLITUDE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF CANADA WITH
HEIGHT ANOMALIES PEAKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL IN
TURN FAVOR TROFFING OVER ERN N AMERICA WITH THE TROF REACHING PEAK
AMPLITUDE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...ENERGY
APPROACHING THE W COAST WILL SPLIT...RESULTING IN DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER SW CONUS CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW LATER THIS WEEK. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE UPPER LAKES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PEAKING WRN CANADA RIDGE...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE FORCED
TO DROP FARTHER S INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE/WED WITH COLD
FROPA OCCURRING TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS FROPA BRINGS THE BEST CHC OF
PCPN THIS WEEK. WITH DECENT FORCING...POPS AT LEAST INTO THE HIGH
CHC TO LOW LIKELY CATEGORY APPEAR REASONABLE FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING.
DECENT FORCING/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND A LITTLE
INSTABILITY WITH FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. DEPENDING ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE MID LEVEL TROF
BECOMES...SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY LINGER INTO WED. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
RUNS YESTERDAY TRENDED TOWARD MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPMENT CLOSE ENOUGH
TO UPPER MI TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PCPN ON WED. SINCE THEN...
GUIDANCE HAS WAIVERED ON THIS IDEA. WILL LARGELY MAINTAIN CONTINUITY
WITH PREVIOUS FCST IN SHOWING SCHC POPS (CHC ACROSS THE NCNTRL AND
E) INTO WED MORNING. IF THERE IS ANY PCPN...MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AS THERMAL TROF WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-4C WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. 00Z/12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE WRN CANADA RIDGE WILL PASS
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO SAT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES. ALTHOUGH THIS A NEW DEVELOPMENT WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE 12Z RUNS BACK UP THE POSSIBILITY. AS A RESULT..SCHC
TO LOW CHC POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR SAT.
AS FOR TEMPS...THE PATTERN THIS WEEK FAVORS NORMAL TO BLO NORMAL
TEMPS FOR UPPER MI ON THE MAJORITY OF DAYS. NIGHTTIME MINS WILL
STILL BE DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE INTERIOR ON AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS. TUE WILL BE ONE OF THE WARMER DAYS AS W TO SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WHICH ARRIVES IN
THE AFTN/EVENING. WARMTH ON TUE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT/CLOUD COVER AND SHRA...BUT RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S. MUCH COOLER WEATHER...
ESPECIALLY NOTABLE CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FOLLOW FOR WED
UNDER BRISK N WINDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK SOLIDLY BLO NORMAL WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR NO HIGHER THAN AROUND 40F. EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WITH 850MB THERMAL TROF OVER THE AREA...
FURTHER SUPPORTING COOL CONDITIONS. MODERATION WILL OCCUR THU WITH
MORE WARMING FRI AND POSSIBLY ON INTO SAT...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. RECENT
GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE INDICATED THAT FRI AND/OR SAT COULD BE QUITE
WARM WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. WILL TURN COOLER AGAIN
FOR SUN. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...NAEFS OUTLOOKS ARE SUGGESTING A
TREND TOWARD AN OVERALL SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMP REGIME DURING THE
SECOND WEEK OF MAY.
EVEN IF MOST AREAS SEE SOME PCPN TUE...AMOUNTS WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT
AND WON`T REALLY AFFECT WHAT IS BECOMING AN EXTENDED DRY SPELL FOR
UPPER MI. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY COOL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT...WILL KEEP GREENUP SLOW. THUS...FIRE WX WILL BE AN ISSUE AT
TIMES FOR THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. THIS WEEK...TUE STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
DAY OF MOST CONCERN AS IT SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY WITH POTENTIAL OF
BREEZY W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS/-SHRA ARRIVE SOONER...FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE EASED. IF THE
COLD FRONT MATERIALIZES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER DAY WITH ELEVATED
FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL OCCUR ON THE DAY PRIOR TO ITS PASSAGE OR THE
DAY OF FROPA...EITHER FRI OR SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMING AT KIWD FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. WL
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIFR FOG TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 20 KNOTS. WSW
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1240 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.AVIATION...
A WELL ORGANIZED ARC OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE
WARM ADVECTION WING OF THE INBOUND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT PROGS SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS REMOVED
RAINFALL MENTION FOR KMBS...OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT LARGELY TO THE
PREVIOUS TAF NARRATIVES. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER/BRIEF VCTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KDTW...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED IT TO THE TAF YET. FEEL THERE
IS JUST TOO LOW OF A CHANCE AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WORK UP THE
COLUMN...UP THE FRONTAL SLOPE. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY UNDER THE LONGEST STRETCH/DURATION OF THE
COMPACT RADIUS DEFORMATION FORCING. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE
OVER SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...JUST A MATTER OF TIME
BEFORE THIS SLIDES INTO DETROIT. REFRAINED FROM LIFR IN THE TAFS
ATTM...WITH A LACK OF OBSERVATIONAL SUPPORT UPSTREAM. PERSISTENT
OVERCAST IS FORECASTED FOR MONDAY BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE A BETTER
SIGNAL FOR CIG TREND TO MVFR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW...CIGS WILL LOWER BACK INTO IFR MOMENTARILY WITH GREATEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION SUPPORT WASHING ACROSS SOTUHEASTERN MICHIGAN.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIFR BUT NO UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THIS ATTM. A THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WORK UP THE FRONTAL SLOPE WHICH SEVERLY
COMPROMISES ANY CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY HERE. THERE IS A RELATIVELY
STRONGER SIGNAL IN SUPPORT FOR MVFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT
* LOW FOR CIG AOB 200 FT 6-12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 929 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
UPDATE...
THE IMPENDING WEATHER EPISODE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE (STILL A CLOSED CIRCULATION
ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) THAT WILL OPEN AND TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 03-12Z TONIGHT.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF ITEMS WORTH DISCUSSION. THE FIRST IS THE
AMOUNT/VIGOR OF THUNDERSTORM/SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SIFTING THROUGH MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT LOCATED NEAR INDIANAPOLIS EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO. ITS PROBABLY NOT A LOT...BUT THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY
BALANCE HAS BEEN FAVORABLE. NWP SUGGESTS THAT SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FROM 00-06Z IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW
STATIC STABILITY IN THE MIDLEVELS...WITH 850-500MB LAPSE RATES
INCREASING TO OR IN EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z. NOT
OVERLY TRUSTWORTHY OF THE 18Z NAM...AS IT IS SHOWING SOME PECULIAR
REDISTRIBUTION IN THE MASS FIELDS IN THE 3 HOURLY OUTPUT. THE NET
RESULT BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS AND THE FORECASTED MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR FOR THE DETROIT METRO
AREA SOUTHWARD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ACTIVITY
REMAINING ELEVATED WITH NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE 2ND ITEM TO DISCUSS IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IDEA IS ASCERTAINED WITH THE
LOOK OF AND AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS...VERY SMALL
CURVATURE/RADIUS TO THE DEFORMATION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL LIKELY STREAK DIRECTLY ACROSS IN SOME
CONFIGURATION DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN DTX CWA. SO...WITH THE
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A REASONABLE DURATION OF LENGTH...COULD
SEE VERY QUICK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1.0 INCH
POSSIBLE. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO EXCEED 1.0 INCH LATE THIS
EVENING. LATEST RAP AND HRRR...SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AXIS MAY OCCUR DIRECTLY SOUTH OF MICHIGAN BORDER OVER OHIO.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT IT WILL REMAIN THAT FAR
SOUTH. THERE IS TYPICALLY ERROR IN WHAT PORTION OF THE ELEVATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FIRE. PREFER SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THIS
INSTANCE...DIRECTLY IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST/SHARPEST OF DIRECT
DCVA.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 334 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AND NORTHEAST FLOW OFF
THE LAKES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE ONLY A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO SPILL OVER THE AREA.
UPPER LOW OVER NE/IA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT...OPENING AS IT BEGINS
TO PHASE WITH THE BAGGY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA. UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
AND THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE LOW CENTER
LOOKING TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVER OHIO. SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE REGION...ELEVATED PORTIONS OF WHICH
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG
THE FRONT LOOKS TO INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT...WITH FORCING ALSO GETTING A BOOST FROM LEFT EXIT REGION
FORCING FROM A JET STREAK TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PROMPT A NICE
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF RAIN TONIGHT...WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION AS
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO 7-8 C/KM. HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG/SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR...CLOSER TO WHERE A
WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE FEEDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. DEFORMATION AREA AND ASSOCIATED RAIN LOOK TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA BY SUNRISE AS THE LOW QUICKLY SCOOTS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND
BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS. COOLER AIR SPILLING IN
ALOFT BEHIND THE LOW...ENHANCED BY ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSING FROM
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...WILL PROMOTE STEEP LAPSE RATES UP THROUGH
ABOUT 750MB AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
INCONSISTENT WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT UP THROUGH AN
INVERSION POSITIONED JUST ABOVE THIS LEVEL...WITH NAM MUCH MORE
MOIST THAN GFS. NAM WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME MORNING DRIZZLE AS SOME DRYING OCCURS IN
THE MID LEVELS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING RAIN MENTION AND STICK WITH
JUST CLOUDS BASED ON GFS/EURO...AS NAM SOMETIMES CARRIES A BIAS WITH
TOO MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WARMING WILL BE TEMPERED BY SOME CLOUD
COVER (ESPECIALLY SOUTH) AND NORTH FLOW...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO REACH THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MIXING ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH SHOULD BRING NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH
MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 60S.
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO WORK DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT PER LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
CUTOFF UPPER LOW PROGGED BY GLOBAL MODELS TO DRIFT OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER HEIGHTS LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
RESULT WILL BE COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LEADING TO A SOLID WARMING AND
DRYING TREND.
MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO
TONIGHT...GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT SOME CHANNELING ACROSS SAGINAW BAY
TO SUPPORT GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS INTO THE EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT TOMORROW WILL SUPPORT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT STILL 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
HYDROLOGY...
A COMPACT AND FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH AROUND HALF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M59 CORRIDOR. THE BULK OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM LOCAL TIME. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED...WITH
JUST MODEST RISE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS...ALONG WITH PONDING/STANDING
WATER IN NORMALLY PRONE LOW LYING AREAS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MR
UPDATE.......CB
DISCUSSION...HLO/DT
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
318 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Complex and messy upper air pattern remains across the region this
morning. Leading s/w continues to approach the region early this
morning and is responsible for light RA across swrn into central MO.
This area of precip shud continue to move newd thru the area this
morning. Mdls suggest it will dissipate as it moves into the CWA
around sunrise. While this is possible due to the better low level
moisture convergence pushes S of the area, believe the leading s/w
will be sufficient to maintain higher PoPs thru mid-morning.
For the remainder of the day, have kept PoPs in the slight chance
range for now as isod to widely sct SHRA are expected today.
However, coverage may be somewhat higher across nrn half to third
of the CWA as the upper trof pulls newd thru the area today. The
bulk of these SHRA will be diurnally driven and shud dissipate
this evening.
As for temps today, with extensive cloud cover in place, and with
the trof in place today, do not expect much clearing today except
for the srn third or so of the CWA. Where breaks to occur this
morning, believe CU will develop, filling them in. This complicates
the temps forecast for today as a strong May sun can help temps jump
even with a short period of insolation. Still, believe clouds will
be the rule for today and have trended temps aob the cooler guidance
for much of the CWA. The exception will be the srn portions where
more insolation is expected. This same area is also along and S of
the 850mb fnt, which shud help warm temps today.
Tilly
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Will see some lingering isolated/scattered showers this evening
in cyclonic flow on back side of system. The activity will
gradually taper off. Otherwise, clouds to slowly thin out from
north to south overnight and lows will be in the 40s, a bit below
normal for this time of year.
Because of the lingering cyclonic flow, could still see some
isolated showers in the far eastern portions of forecast area on
Tuesday. However, most locations to remain dry with partly sunny
skies and highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Then Tuesday night, a more vigorous trof/secondary cold front
associated with surface low anchored over the Great Lakes region to
slide south through area. So increased pops with scattered showers
for portions of west central/southwest IL Tuesday night through
Wednesday, as main energy to remain to our northeast and east.
For rest of work week, will see dry conditions with temperatures
slowly moderating. By Friday highs will be in the low to mid 70s and
in the upper 70s to low 80s on Saturday. Then next significant
weather system to approach region Saturday night and Sunday with
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms through the rest
of the weekend.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Surface low over southern IN will continue moving eastward
late tonight. Surface ridging extended from the Plains into
northwestern MO. MVFR cigs over northern portions of MO and IL
which were over UIN and have just moved into COU should continue
to slowly advect south-southeastward into the St Louis metro area
around 06-07Z Monday. These cigs will drop into the IFR catagory
by early Monday morning. There will also be light fog late
tonight and early Monday morning. The cloud ceiling will gradually
rise into the MVFR catagory late Monday morning, and possibly into
the VFR catagory by late Monday afternoon or early Monday evening.
A narrow band of light showers moving into southwest MO may move
into COU and the St Louis metro area early Monday morning. An
upper level disturbance will also bring widely scattered showers
to the area on Monday, especially during the afternoon. A
northwesterly surface wind will continue through the period.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs will move southeastward into STL
around 06Z Monday. The ceiling will drop into the IFR catagory
by early morning with light fog developing. The fog will
dissipate by late morning along with the cigs rising into the MVFR
catagory. The ceiling may rise into the VFR catagory by late
Monday afternoon or early Monday evening. There may be a few
showers on Monday. Nwly surface wind will continue through the
period, becoming light Monday evening.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 60 48 67 52 / 30 20 10 10
Quincy 55 44 66 49 / 20 10 10 20
Columbia 57 44 67 49 / 20 5 10 10
Jefferson City 58 44 68 49 / 20 5 10 5
Salem 62 48 65 49 / 20 20 20 20
Farmington 62 45 67 47 / 20 10 10 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
300 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
A blocking pattern is in place with a high amplitude ridge axis
over western NOAM with downstream troughing over the Midwest into
the central Plains. Clouds and some light radar return are
occurring in a band of forcing roughly along the I-44 corridor. We
will continue to see sprinkles/r-/r-- today with abundant clouds
and cool temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Another disturbance/shortwave will pivot through the area Tue.
Some guidance has been spitting out precip here and there Tue
afternoon and with relatively cool air aloft this makes sense.
Certainly nothing noteworthy other than sprinkles and clouds at
times.
One more shortwave now over the high latitudes of Canada will
moves sse into MN by midday Tue and then into the OH Vly Wed. This
will veer winds to the nw-nnw Wednesday but little else. A
warming trend will occur late in the week as the western upper
level ridge moves into the Plains. 850mb temperatures support
highs in the low 80s deg F for Sat.
General global model agreement exists in shifting a closed upper
low into the central High Plains by late Sunday. A downstream
weakening upper level ridge axis will still be in place near or
just east of our cwfa. Low amplitude lead shortwaves ahead of the
parent low are expected to move n-nne into/through the region with
increased chances for showers/tstms, especially over the western
cwfa late Saturday night and Sunday. This could begin an extended
unsettled humid period of ocnl showers/tstms into the work week
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
A weak upper level storm system will produce a few light rain
showers across southern Missouri overnight. Ceilings will also
lower into the MVFR category by late tonight. There is still a
signal for a brief period of IFR ceilings just after
sunrise...especially around Springfield.
Ceilings will then improve from mid-morning onward on Monday.
However, MVFR will remain likely through at least early afternoon.
Winds will remain out of the northwest generally below 10 knots.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
254 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Water vapor imagery early this morning showing a well-defined
wave diving south through the upper Miss Vly/northern Central Plains
in developing northerly flow aloft. Out ahead of this
feature...regional radars showing a concentrated area of shwr
activity just to our south along the I-44 corridor...with a secondary
area of lighter activity noted across east-central Kansas. This
secondary region may lead to a few light sprinkles/shwrs across the
KC Metro and surrounding areas this morning...and grids have been
adjusted accordingly. Otherwise...fcst models continue to hint at
developing instability shwrs across all areas later today as main
upper wave passes. This activity will most likely develop after
15z...and the very spotty appearance in available short-term model
guidance precludes going anything higher than a slgt chc mention for
now. With regards to high temps...periodic breaks in the cloud cover
should allow temps to warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s this
afternoon...with the warmest values expected across the western
zones.
Secondary wave to pass across the region overnight however with loss
of weak daytime instability and an influx of drier air...feature
should pass with little impact. Tomorrow will mark the start of a
pleasant and mostly dry period which will persist through the
remainder of the work week. Following the passage of a weak but dry
cold front Tuesday night/early Wednesday...fcst models largely in
agreement that a strong omega block will develop over the Nation`s
midsection towards the latter half of the work week. As a
result...building heights and developing warm air advection by Friday
should allow a nice warming trend to get underway heading into the
weekend. In fact temps by Saturday could be flirting with the 80
degree mark as the ridge axis passes directly overhead. While
Saturday looks dry...next round of shwrs/storms looks to return on
Sunday as upper pattern begins shifting to the southwest ahead of a
strong Great Basin upper low. Gulf looks to open right up heading
into the late weekend with precip chances easily continuing into
early next week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Drier air slowly working into the region early this morning which is
resulting in a categorical increase back to VFR at most forecast
locations. For now...have decided to play the optimistic card and
currently have a mostly VFR fcst through roughly 14z at all
locations. After this time...daytime heating and the arrival of the
next weather system will result in a brief period if MVFR cigs before
improving by the 18z time frame. As this feature arrives...a brief
shwr or two will be possible at all locations with activity likely
coming to an end by 00z. Winds to remain from the northwest between
5-10 kts.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...32
Aviation...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1233 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 219 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
A little wet and cloudy along the Iowa border with comparatively
nice conditions farther south across east central Kansas into
central Missouri has been the prevailing pattern for today. However,
the upper level shortwave trough is sliding northeast out of Iowa
this afternoon has induced enough of a return flow on the backside
that low clouds and a few showers are now moving through northern
Missouri. Areas south of the Missouri River where able to bound in
the 60s, but cloud cover and northerly winds farther north have kept
conditions cooler and damper.
Rest of the afternoon through Monday...cool, cloud, and likely
damp,conditions will prevail. While the shortwave in Iowa is moving
away this afternoon, a follow on shortwave trough is expected to
quickly exit the Desert Southwest late tonight, ejecting along a
slightly more southern track than the leading shortwave moving
through Iowa. Ultimately, this should keep the lower clouds and
potential for scattered showers persisting across the region
overnight and through the day Monday as a result. Have tossed in
chance POPs for late Monday morning and the afternoon hours as the
shortwave trough ejects into and through the Southern and Central
Plains. This could make for a soupy day, with low clouds, drizzle
and scattered showers dominating. However, with the exiting of the
secondary shortwave that night, warmer temperatures and less cloudy
skies will prevail in the days afterwards.
Tuesday on into the next weekend...will be dominated by dry weather
and nice temperatures. With the secondary shortwave exiting the
region Monday night into Tuesday the region will quickly get
dominated by a large amplitude ridge sandwiched between two large
cutoff circulations; one over the east coast with the other over the
Great Basin. Temperatures under the ridge will warm into the 70s
with lows in the 50s. Otherwise, given the pattern set up later in
the work week, expect that sometime late in the weekend --but more
likely early next work week-- the Great Basin trough will start
ejecting through the Plains and likely result in our next widespread
chance for storms in the region.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Drier air slowly working into the region early this morning which is
resulting in a categorical increase back to VFR at most forecast
locations. For now...have decided to play the optimistic card and
currently have a mostly VFR fcst through roughly 14z at all
locations. After this time...daytime heating and the arrival of the
next weather system will result in a brief period if MVFR cigs before
improving by the 18z time frame. As this feature arrives...a brief
shwr or two will be possible at all locations with activity likely
coming to an end by 00z. Winds to remain from the northwest between
5-10 kts.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
We have increased PoPs into the 30-40% range for the late evening
and overnight period generally along and just north of the I-44
corridor. A mid-level frontogenetic zone (centered around 750 mb)
will be the primary focus for the shower activity. Amounts will be
very light...generally less than 0.05".
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
An upper level ridge will build east across the plains during the
middle of the week then over the region late in the week into
early next weekend. This will allow a warming trend to occur as
highs return to the lower 70s on Wednesday, with temperatures
warming into the upper 70s to the lower 80s by Saturday.
An upper level low will then track east across the southwestern
U.S then into the plains late this weekend into early next week.
As this system approaches from the west, thunderstorm chances
will return to the area late next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
A weak upper level storm system will produce a few light rain
showers across southern Missouri overnight. Ceilings will also
lower into the MVFR category by late tonight. There is still a
signal for a brief period of IFR ceilings just after
sunrise...especially around Springfield.
Ceilings will then improve from mid-morning onward on Monday.
However, MVFR will remain likely through at least early afternoon.
Winds will remain out of the northwest generally below 10 knots.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
We have increased PoPs into the 30-40% range for the late evening
and overnight period generally along and just north of the I-44
corridor. A mid-level frontogenetic zone (centered around 750 mb)
will be the primary focus for the shower activity. Amounts will be
very light...generally less than 0.05".
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
An upper level ridge will build east across the plains during the
middle of the week then over the region late in the week into
early next weekend. This will allow a warming trend to occur as
highs return to the lower 70s on Wednesday, with temperatures
warming into the upper 70s to the lower 80s by Saturday.
An upper level low will then track east across the southwestern
U.S then into the plains late this weekend into early next week.
As this system approaches from the west, thunderstorm chances
will return to the area late next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
A weak upper level storm system will produce a few light rain
showers across southern Missouri overnight. Ceilings will also
lower into the MVFR category by late tonight. There is still a
signal for a brief period of IFR ceilings just after
sunrise...especially around Springfield.
Ceilings will then improve from mid-morning onward on Monday.
However, MVFR will remain likely through at least early afternoon.
Winds will remain out of the northwest generally below 10 knots.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1124 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Clouds will continue to move southeast and will overspread the area
by mid evening as upper trough back over eastern Nebraska drops
southeast into Missouri and Illinois. Isolated afternoon showers
and thunderstorms should diminish by early this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Some isolated showers may begin to develop
toward morning underneath the upper trough over central and
northeast Missouri. Lows tonight will fall into the middle 40s to
around 50s.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
(Monday through Wednesday)
GFS/ECMWF are in relatively good agreement that upper trough will
move across the area tomorrow with relatively deep layer moisture.
Will carry chance PoPs for much of the area for this reason. Drier
air will begin to move into the area by Monday night, so will go
with mainly dry conditions. A second trough moves across the area
on Tuesday which begins the switchover in the upper pattern to
northwesterly flow. GFS/ECMWF are still showing a third upper
trough moving across the Great Lakes and the Midwest on Wednesday
that will bring an attendant cold front across Missouri and Illinois.
Models indicate that best low level moisture and forcing will
still limit rain chances to the eastern part of the CWA.
Monday still looks quite cool with clouds, showers, and cold air
advection. Tuesday will be slightly warmer with less clouds and
winds turning out of the west. Wednesday will see near steady
temperatures during the afternoon behind the front.
(Thursday through Sunday)
CONUS will be in highly amplified upper flow late week into next
weekend because of an omega block that will set up over North
America. It still looks like we will be dry through at least
Saturday as we will lie under northwesterly flow aloft and a large
surface high will be moving across Missouri and Illinois. By next
weekend, the GFS and ECMWF show the upper ridge moving over us and
the low level flow becoming southwesterly across the Midwest. This
may allow for some return of Gulf moisture into our area by late in
the weekend. Have added a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday as both
the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a frontal boundary moving back into
the area. This will also cause temperatures to climb from below
normal on Thursday with 850mb temperatures around 5C to above normal
temperatures over the weekend with southwesterly surface flow and
850mb temperatures around 15C.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Surface low over southern IN will continue moving eastward
late tonight. Surface ridging extended from the Plains into
northwestern MO. MVFR cigs over northern portions of MO and IL
which were over UIN and have just moved into COU should continue
to slowly advect south-southeastward into the St Louis metro area
around 06-07Z Monday. These cigs will drop into the IFR catagory
by early Monday morning. There will also be light fog late
tonight and early Monday morning. The cloud ceiling will gradually
rise into the MVFR catagory late Monday morning, and possibly into
the VFR catagory by late Monday afternoon or early Monday evening.
A narrow band of light showers moving into southwest MO may move
into COU and the St Louis metro area early Monday morning. An
upper level disturbance will also bring widely scattered showers
to the area on Monday, especially during the afternoon. A
northwesterly surface wind will continue through the period.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs will move southeastward into STL
around 06Z Monday. The ceiling will drop into the IFR catagory
by early morning with light fog developing. The fog will
dissipate by late morning along with the cigs rising into the MVFR
catagory. The ceiling may rise into the VFR catagory by late
Monday afternoon or early Monday evening. There may be a few
showers on Monday. Nwly surface wind will continue through the
period, becoming light Monday evening.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
646 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 219 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
A little wet and cloudy along the Iowa border with comparatively
nice conditions farther south across east central Kansas into
central Missouri has been the prevailing pattern for today. However,
the upper level shortwave trough is sliding northeast out of Iowa
this afternoon has induced enough of a return flow on the backside
that low clouds and a few showers are now moving through northern
Missouri. Areas south of the Missouri River where able to bound in
the 60s, but cloud cover and northerly winds farther north have kept
conditions cooler and damper.
Rest of the afternoon through Monday...cool, cloud, and likely
damp,conditions will prevail. While the shortwave in Iowa is moving
away this afternoon, a follow on shortwave trough is expected to
quickly exit the Desert Southwest late tonight, ejecting along a
slightly more southern track than the leading shortwave moving
through Iowa. Ultimately, this should keep the lower clouds and
potential for scattered showers persisting across the region
overnight and through the day Monday as a result. Have tossed in
chance POPs for late Monday morning and the afternoon hours as the
shortwave trough ejects into and through the Southern and Central
Plains. This could make for a soupy day, with low clouds, drizzle
and scattered showers dominating. However, with the exiting of the
secondary shortwave that night, warmer temperatures and less cloudy
skies will prevail in the days afterwards.
Tuesday on into the next weekend...will be dominated by dry weather
and nice temperatures. With the secondary shortwave exiting the
region Monday night into Tuesday the region will quickly get
dominated by a large amplitude ridge sandwiched between two large
cutoff circulations; one over the east coast with the other over the
Great Basin. Temperatures under the ridge will warm into the 70s
with lows in the 50s. Otherwise, given the pattern set up later in
the work week, expect that sometime late in the weekend --but more
likely early next work week-- the Great Basin trough will start
ejecting through the Plains and likely result in our next widespread
chance for storms in the region.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
Should see MVFR stratus through most of the forecast period, with
some degradation toward IFR in a few hours. Expect a gradual
improvement through the morning hours on Monday, with VFR status
prevailing by the afternoon hours.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Leighton
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
639 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
...Update to Public and Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
We have increased PoPs into the 30-40% range for the late evening
and overnight period generally along and just north of the I-44
corridor. A mid-level frontogenetic zone (centered around 750 mb)
will be the primary focus for the shower activity. Amounts will be
very light...generally less than 0.05".
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
An upper level ridge will build east across the plains during the
middle of the week then over the region late in the week into
early next weekend. This will allow a warming trend to occur as
highs return to the lower 70s on Wednesday, with temperatures
warming into the upper 70s to the lower 80s by Saturday.
An upper level low will then track east across the southwestern
U.S then into the plains late this weekend into early next week.
As this system approaches from the west, thunderstorm chances
will return to the area late next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
A weak upper level storm system will bring lowering ceilings and a
few showers to the region overnight. Confidence is high that MVFR
ceilings will develop overnight with ceilings approaching IFR by
sunrise.
Confidence was then high enough to include prevailing IFR around
Springfield for a few hours. Confidence was slightly lower at
Joplin, so we include a mention of IFR in a TEMPO group. At this
point, confidence was too low at Branson to insert an IFR mention.
Ceilings will then slowly improve later Monday morning although
MVFR may hang on for much of the day.
Winds through Monday will remain out of the northwest generally
below 9 knots.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
559 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Clouds will continue to move southeast and will overspread the area
by mid evening as upper trough back over eastern Nebraska drops
southeast into Missouri and Illinois. Isolated afternoon showers
and thunderstorms should diminish by early this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Some isolated showers may begin to develop
toward morning underneath the upper trough over central and
northeast Missouri. Lows tonight will fall into the middle 40s to
around 50s.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
(Monday through Wednesday)
GFS/ECMWF are in relatively good agreement that upper trough will
move across the area tomorrow with relatively deep layer moisture.
Will carry chance PoPs for much of the area for this reason. Drier
air will begin to move into the area by Monday night, so will go
with mainly dry conditions. A second trough moves across the area
on Tuesday which begins the switchover in the upper pattern to
northwesterly flow. GFS/ECMWF are still showing a third upper
trough moving across the Great Lakes and the Midwest on Wednesday
that will bring an attendant cold front across Missouri and Illinois.
Models indicate that best low level moisture and forcing will
still limit rain chances to the eastern part of the CWA.
Monday still looks quite cool with clouds, showers, and cold air
advection. Tuesday will be slightly warmer with less clouds and
winds turning out of the west. Wednesday will see near steady
temperatures during the afternoon behind the front.
(Thursday through Sunday)
CONUS will be in highly amplified upper flow late week into next
weekend because of an omega block that will set up over North
America. It still looks like we will be dry through at least
Saturday as we will lie under northwesterly flow aloft and a large
surface high will be moving across Missouri and Illinois. By next
weekend, the GFS and ECMWF show the upper ridge moving over us and
the low level flow becoming southwesterly across the Midwest. This
may allow for some return of Gulf moisture into our area by late in
the weekend. Have added a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday as both
the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a frontal boundary moving back into
the area. This will also cause temperatures to climb from below
normal on Thursday with 850mb temperatures around 5C to above normal
temperatures over the weekend with southwesterly surface flow and
850mb temperatures around 15C.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 455 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Surface low over southeast IL will move eastward tonight. Any
showers/storms should be east of the taf sites this evening. MVFR
cigs in UIN should drop back down into the IFR catagory later this
evening. The low level cloud cover over northern MO will advect
south-southeastward into COU and the St Louis metro area later
this evening and overnight, leading to MVFR cigs initially, then
dropping into the IFR catagory late tonight/early Monday morning.
There will also be light fog late tonight and early Monday
morning. The cloud ceiling will gradually rise into the MVFR
catagory late Monday morning, and possibly into the VFR catagory
by late Monday afternoon. An upper level disturbance will bring
widely scattered showers to the area on Monday. W-nwly surface
wind will become more n-nwly on Monday.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs will move into STL late this
evening, then drop into the IFR catagory late tonight along with
light fog. The fog will dissipate by late morning along with the
cigs rising into the MVFR catagory. The ceiling may rise into the
VFR catagory by late Monday afternoon or early Monday evening.
There may be a few showers on Monday. Nwly surface wind will
continue through the period, weakening early this evening.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
559 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Clouds will continue to move southeast and will overspread the area
by mid evening as upper trough back over eastern Nebraska drops
southeast into Missouri and Illinois. Isolated afternoon showers
and thunderstorms should diminish by early this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Some isolated showers may begin to develop
toward morning underneath the upper trough over central and
northeast Missouri. Lows tonight will fall into the middle 40s to
around 50s.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
(Monday through Wednesday)
GFS/ECMWF are in relatively good agreement that upper trough will
move across the area tomorrow with relatively deep layer moisture.
Will carry chance PoPs for much of the area for this reason. Drier
air will begin to move into the area by Monday night, so will go
with mainly dry conditions. A second trough moves across the area
on Tuesday which begins the switchover in the upper pattern to
northwesterly flow. GFS/ECMWF are still showing a third upper
trough moving across the Great Lakes and the Midwest on Wednesday
that will bring an attendant cold front across Missouri and Illinois.
Models indicate that best low level moisture and forcing will
still limit rain chances to the eastern part of the CWA.
Monday still looks quite cool with clouds, showers, and cold air
advection. Tuesday will be slightly warmer with less clouds and
winds turning out of the west. Wednesday will see near steady
temperatures during the afternoon behind the front.
(Thursday through Sunday)
CONUS will be in highly amplified upper flow late week into next
weekend because of an omega block that will set up over North
America. It still looks like we will be dry through at least
Saturday as we will lie under northwesterly flow aloft and a large
surface high will be moving across Missouri and Illinois. By next
weekend, the GFS and ECMWF show the upper ridge moving over us and
the low level flow becoming southwesterly across the Midwest. This
may allow for some return of Gulf moisture into our area by late in
the weekend. Have added a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday as both
the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a frontal boundary moving back into
the area. This will also cause temperatures to climb from below
normal on Thursday with 850mb temperatures around 5C to above normal
temperatures over the weekend with southwesterly surface flow and
850mb temperatures around 15C.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 455 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Surface low over southeast IL will move eastward tonight. Any
showers/storms should be east of the taf sites this evening. MVFR
cigs in UIN should drop back down into the IFR catagory later this
evening. The low level cloud cover over northern MO will advect
south-southeastward into COU and the St Louis metro area later
this evening and overnight, leading to MVFR cigs initially, then
dropping into the IFR catagory late tonight/early Monday morning.
There will also be light fog late tonight and early Monday
morning. The cloud ceiling will gradually rise into the MVFR
catagory late Monday morning, and possibly into the VFR catagory
by late Monday afternoon. An upper level disturbance will bring
widely scattered showers to the area on Monday. W-nwly surface
wind will become more n-nwly on Monday.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs will move into STL late this
evening, then drop into the IFR catagory late tonight along with
light fog. The fog will dissipate by late morning along with the
cigs rising into the MVFR catagory. The ceiling may rise into the
VFR catagory by late Monday afternoon or early Monday evening.
There may be a few showers on Monday. Nwly surface wind will
continue through the period, weakening early this evening.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
325 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Clouds will continue to move southeast and will overspread the area
by mid evening as upper trough back over eastern Nebraska drops
southeast into Missouri and Illinois. Isolated afternoon showers
and thunderstorms should diminish by early this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Some isolated showers may begin to develop
toward morning underneath the upper trough over central and
northeast Missouri. Lows tonight will fall into the middle 40s to
around 50s.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
(Monday through Wednesday)
GFS/ECMWF are in relatively good agreement that upper trough will
move across the area tomorrow with relatively deep layer moisture.
Will carry chance PoPs for much of the area for this reason. Drier
air will begin to move into the area by Monday night, so will go
with mainly dry conditions. A second trough moves across the area
on Tuesday which begins the switchover in the upper pattern to
northwesterly flow. GFS/ECMWF are still showing a third upper
trough moving across the Great Lakes and the Midwest on Wednesday
that will bring an attendant cold front across Missouri and Illinois.
Models indicate that best low level moisture and forcing will
still limit rain chances to the eastern part of the CWA.
Monday still looks quite cool with clouds, showers, and cold air
advection. Tuesday will be slightly warmer with less clouds and
winds turning out of the west. Wednesday will see near steady
temperatures during the afternoon behind the front.
(Thursday through Sunday)
CONUS will be in highly amplified upper flow late week into next
weekend because of an omega block that will set up over North
America. It still looks like we will be dry through at least
Saturday as we will lie under northwesterly flow aloft and a large
surface high will be moving across Missouri and Illinois. By next
weekend, the GFS and ECMWF show the upper ridge moving over us and
the low level flow becoming southwesterly across the Midwest. This
may allow for some return of Gulf moisture into our area by late in
the weekend. Have added a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday as both
the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a frontal boundary moving back into
the area. This will also cause temperatures to climb from below
normal on Thursday with 850mb temperatures around 5C to above normal
temperatures over the weekend with southwesterly surface flow and
850mb temperatures around 15C.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Specifics for KCOU: KCOU is far enough west that VFR conditions
should prevail for the first 0-6 hours of the valid TAF pd.
Thereafter, MVFR cigs are expected for most of the night. Ceilings
may fall to IFR late tonight, but confidence was too low to
include in the TAF attm.
Specifics for KUIN: IFR conditions are expected for at least the
next few hours. Minor improvement is possible during the late
afternoon, but cigs should fall back to IFR this evening.
Scattered rain showers are possible after 20z.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: IFR and MVFR cigs extended farther
south late this morning than the models had previously predicted,
and IFR/MVFR cigs are expected to remain in place through the
afternoon based on upstream satellite imagery and METARs. Cigs
are expected to fall to IFR again tonight, likely after 06z based
on RAP and local WRF soundings in BUFKIT. Light fog is also
possible overnight. Rain showers are possible after 12z, but the
St. Louis metro area should be on the northern fringe of the rain
shield.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
400 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM SUNDAY...
ONE LONE MODEST CELL PASSED OVER THE TRIAD RECENTLY... BUT OTHERWISE
THE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE SRN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE APPROACHED BUT FAILED TO
SURVIVE THE TRIP INTO THE FORECAST AREA DESPITE THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE (PW OF 150-175% OF NORMAL). WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING (FOSTERING THE GROWTH IN CINH OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS) AND
IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT (WITH
FAIRLY FLAT WSW MID LEVEL FLOW AND NO DISTINCT LOW LEVEL JETTING)...
EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL NC FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD BE SEEING A SLIGHT
RISE IN PW OVERNIGHT ACCORDING TO THE RAP IN CONJUNCTION WITH
PASSAGE OF A WAVE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WV/VA/MD (PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EVENING`S SEVERE WEATHER OVER WV/WRN VA)... AND
THIS MAY BRUSH OVER THE FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE CWA. IN ADDITION...
POOLING OF HIGHER PW OVER THE SE CWA AS IS PROJECTED BY SEVERAL
MODELS MAY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS THERE TOWARD MORNING. THE LATEST RAP RUN SUPPORTS THIS WITH A
MOISTENING COLUMN LATE TONIGHT AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF LINGERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL RETAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR N/NE
AND OVER THE SE LATER TONIGHT. BASED ON THE WEAK MBE MOVEMENT NOTED
BY THE RAP AND DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL-0C NEARING 4 KM)... LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH SLOW-MOVING AND/OR TRAINING CELLS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING IN THE SE CWA. MILD LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...
A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY AND
THEN SWING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT.... FINALLY GIVING
THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM EAST TX TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES A KICK TO THE EAST. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS NC
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF/NAM IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND NAM FAVOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE
EVENING. DEEP SHEAR IS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 40-50KT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST. CAPE IS LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN GIVEN 1) THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING PRECIP OVER WESTERN NC
EARLY TUESDAY TO INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND 2) WESTERLY FLOW AND DEEPER MIXING TO LOWER DEWPOINTS (AGAIN
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT). GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST100-
1500JKG MLCAPE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...THE COASTAL PLAIN IS
FAVORED FOR STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 70S.
THE SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOW IN THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WHILE IT
APPROACHES THE COAST. LOWS 54-59.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...
AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER
LOW DROPPING SLOWLY OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND CAROLINAS. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES HAVE ADVERTISED THIS UPPER
LOW AS 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL. H10-H85 THICKNESSES DROPPING TO AROUND
1340M BY FRIDAY MORNING SUPPORT THE IDEA OF HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE COOLEST MEX GUIDANCE INDICATING MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S THURS/FRI. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
PERIODIC DCVA COMBINED WITH A POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED STORMS (MAINLY AFTERNOON) THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL AND MOVE EAST BY
SATURDAY...WITH RIDGING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS NC. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TO AND ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...
AREAS OF STRATUS...IN MOIST/HUMID SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW BELOW A
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AROUND 1500 FT...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE AND CEILING HEIGHTS ARE BOTH
LIKELY TO BE MORE VARIABLE THAN IN RECENT DAYS. IN ADDITION...A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST IN A DEEPLY MOIST AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS MORNING...WITH THE RELATIVE
MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE AT KFAY.
OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT THROUGH MVFR RANGE AND SCATTER
BETWEEN 13-16Z. SUBSEQUENT DIURNAL HEATING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
HUMID AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPORT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AN APPALACHIAN LEE
SURFACE TROUGH AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION - BEST CONVEYED WITH A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME RANGE.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN LINGER OVERNIGHT...AS
LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANES IN WSW FLOW ALOFT INTERACT WITH A
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
OUTLOOK: LATE NIGHT-MORNING LOW STRATUS...AND ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUE THROUGH EARLY
WED. A POLAR VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
RESULTANT ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ATTENDING THE VORTEX.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
318 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM SUNDAY...
ONE LONE MODEST CELL PASSED OVER THE TRIAD RECENTLY... BUT OTHERWISE
THE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE SRN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE APPROACHED BUT FAILED TO
SURVIVE THE TRIP INTO THE FORECAST AREA DESPITE THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE (PW OF 150-175% OF NORMAL). WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING (FOSTERING THE GROWTH IN CINH OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS) AND
IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT (WITH
FAIRLY FLAT WSW MID LEVEL FLOW AND NO DISTINCT LOW LEVEL JETTING)...
EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL NC FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD BE SEEING A SLIGHT
RISE IN PW OVERNIGHT ACCORDING TO THE RAP IN CONJUNCTION WITH
PASSAGE OF A WAVE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WV/VA/MD (PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EVENING`S SEVERE WEATHER OVER WV/WRN VA)... AND
THIS MAY BRUSH OVER THE FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE CWA. IN ADDITION...
POOLING OF HIGHER PW OVER THE SE CWA AS IS PROJECTED BY SEVERAL
MODELS MAY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS THERE TOWARD MORNING. THE LATEST RAP RUN SUPPORTS THIS WITH A
MOISTENING COLUMN LATE TONIGHT AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF LINGERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL RETAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR N/NE
AND OVER THE SE LATER TONIGHT. BASED ON THE WEAK MBE MOVEMENT NOTED
BY THE RAP AND DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL-0C NEARING 4 KM)... LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH SLOW-MOVING AND/OR TRAINING CELLS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING IN THE SE CWA. MILD LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...
ANOTHER MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING OVER
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE OUR CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KTS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 6-7 DEG C/KM. IN ADDITION...CENTRAL NC SEE INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT MONDAY AS WE BECOME UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 110+KT JET. THESE DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT
OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.5-1.7 INCHES OF >200
PERCENT OF NORMAL). THUS... SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ERUPT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING WELL
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS. MAIN CONCERN IS A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS
TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN LOCATIONS COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO FLOODING
OF STREETS AS WELL AS CREEKS/STREAMS. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THOUGH COULD
SEE THE NEEDED FOR A FEW URBAN/SMALL STREAM STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLY
A FFW OR TWO.
IF THE MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION ARRIVES PRIOR
TO 15Z...INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THEN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED BUT COULD SEE AN
INCREASE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
HIGH TEMPS MONDAY DEPENDENT ON PARTIAL SUN OCCURRING IN THE EARLY-
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IF CLOUDS SLOW TO DEPART OR SCATTERED
CONVECTION COMMENCES SOONER THAN 20Z...THEN HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP
BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER. MAX TEMPS 80-85. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
LOW-MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 258 PM SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS EARLY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND MID-DAY. UNTIL FROPA...LOOK FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE...THUS AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...AND
PARTICULARLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SHOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LOOK
FOR DRIER NW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD OUR CWA...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW...
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WORTH NOTING THOUGH...THIS
FRONT...AND THE AIRMASS JUST AHEAD OF IT...APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE...RIGHT NOW WE`RE EXPECTING VERY MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOL NW FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR AREA
WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW PROGGED TO TRANSIT VA AND NC. GIVEN THE THE
ASSOC INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW...THE
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO EXIT TO OUR EAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEG BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...
AREAS OF STRATUS...IN MOIST/HUMID SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW BELOW A
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AROUND 1500 FT...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE AND CEILING HEIGHTS ARE BOTH
LIKELY TO BE MORE VARIABLE THAN IN RECENT DAYS. IN ADDITION...A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST IN A DEEPLY MOIST AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS MORNING...WITH THE RELATIVE
MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE AT KFAY.
OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT THROUGH MVFR RANGE AND SCATTER
BETWEEN 13-16Z. SUBSEQUENT DIURNAL HEATING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
HUMID AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPORT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AN APPALACHIAN LEE
SURFACE TROUGH AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION - BEST CONVEYED WITH A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME RANGE.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN LINGER OVERNIGHT...AS
LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANES IN WSW FLOW ALOFT INTERACT WITH A
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
OUTLOOK: LATE NIGHT-MORNING LOW STRATUS...AND ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUE THROUGH EARLY
WED. A POLAR VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
RESULTANT ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ATTENDING THE VORTEX.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE LOW TOP CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DETAILS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATING
AND SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING. A 100KT
JET STREAK WAS SEEN DIVING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER
LOW. CANADIAN/LOCAL MINOT RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. MINOT AIR FORCE BASE
IS THE ONLY REPORTING SURFACE STATION AT THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
RAIN. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE
THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THINGS POTENTIALLY GET MORE INTERESTING THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT (-24C) ASSOCIATED WITH A H7-H5 CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DECENT LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN NOON CDT-6PM CDT
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE 200-300 J/KG AND STEEP (1000-85MB) LAPSE
RATES OF 8.5C/KM...ALONG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55KT-65KT.
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT CAPE/UPWARD MOMENTUM IS LACKING DUE TO
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ASCENT WILL BE FULFILLED BY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED 100KT JET STREAK...WHICH
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS EXPECTING LOW TOP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL HEIGHTS PER BISMARCK BUFKIT SOUNDING OF AROUND 18KFT. WITH
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT/STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND LARGE
SCALE ASCENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE VORTICITY STRETCHING INTO
THE VERTICAL COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR COMPOSITE INDICATE THE FIRST SURGE OF
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SLIDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING...THEN POCKETS OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITYS DEVELOP AGAIN
BETWEEN 17Z AND 00Z TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CONVECTION WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE. LATER MONDAY NIGHT...A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HEAD SOUTH AND REACH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
FOR TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BRIEF/MINOR COOLING FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL (700MB-
500MB) RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TAKE CONTROL AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL DEFLECT ANY SHORTWAVES RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE TO
REMAIN IN SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AND PEAKING
BETWEEN +16C TO +20C THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TAKING THESE TEMPERATURES DOWN
DRY ADIABATICALLY TO THE SURFACE TRANSLATES INTO HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A CLOSED
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...EJECTS
NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPIATION SHIELD IS FORECAST INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
-SHRA ARE FORECAST AT KMOT UNTIL 12Z MONDAY....AND AT KBIS BETWEEN
12Z-16Z MONDAY WITH BKN CIGS/5000FT-8000FT. A VCTS WAS MENTIONED AT
KDIK FROM 16Z-21Z MONDAY...AND AT KBIS FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY. EXPECT A CLEAR SKY AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 03Z TUESDAY.
WINDS AROUND 10KT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDIK WHERE GUSTS TO 20KT CAN
BE EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
FOR TUESDAY...JUST A HEADS UP THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
20 AND 25 PERCENT AND WILL COINCIDE WITH THESE WINDS OVER A SMALL
PORTION OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE TIME DURATION OF
THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS WITH 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 20 PERCENT APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
WITH INSUFFICIENT DURATION AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE...WOULD NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...KS/TWH
FIRE WEATHER...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS CHARLESTON WV
544 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TODAY. UNSETTLED INTO
TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE. SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.
ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY.
USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG STORY TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND IFR
CONDITIONS AT MANY LOCATIONS. SATURATED GROUND FROM RAINFALL TODAY
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
WIDESPREAD FOG LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.
A LINE OF SH0WERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...WILL IMPACT PKB OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DIRECTLY IMPACT AN
AIRPORT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH
THE COLD FRONT STILL IN THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG. NOT SURE
IF ALL SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS BEING MOST
LIKELY TO SEE A DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/02/16
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M M H H M
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TOMORROW IN FOG ONCE
AGAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
530 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED INTO TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE. SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.
ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY.
USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG STORY TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND IFR
CONDITIONS AT MANY LOCATIONS. SATURATED GROUND FROM RAINFALL TODAY
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
WIDESPREAD FOG LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.
A LINE OF SH0WERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...WILL IMPACT PKB OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DIRECTLY IMPACT AN
AIRPORT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH
THE COLD FRONT STILL IN THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG. NOT SURE
IF ALL SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS BEING MOST
LIKELY TO SEE A DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/02/16
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M M H H M
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TOMORROW IN FOG ONCE
AGAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
525 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED INTO TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE. SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.
ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT...WITH A SURFACE WAVE ALONG IT...EXITS TO THE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
LOBE OF VORTICITY CROSS. SHOULD GET A MAINLY DRY PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINIMAL
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WINDING DOWN THIS MORNING AND WE WILL SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER... SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH THE COLD FRONT
STILL IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/02/16
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M M H H M
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
POSSIBLE MVF TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOPING BY TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
345 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED INTO TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE. SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.
ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT...WITH A SURFACE WAVE ALONG IT...EXITS TO THE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
LOBE OF VORTICITY CROSS. SHOULD GET A MAINLY DRY PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINIMAL
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG STORY TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND IFR
CONDITIONS AT MANY LOCATIONS. SATURATED GROUND FROM RAINFALL TODAY
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
WIDESPREAD FOG LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.
A LINE OF SH0WERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...WILL IMPACT PKB OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DIRECTLY IMPACT AN
AIRPORT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH
THE COLD FRONT STILL IN THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG. NOT SURE
IF ALL SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS BEING MOST
LIKELY TO SEE A DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/02/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M M M
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TOMORROW IN FOG ONCE
AGAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ/MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
322 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHOWERS CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TODAY WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA DRYING OUT BEFORE SUNRISE. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING
FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BASED ON HRRR TIMING. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH A 300MB JET STREAK ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE EXPANDS JUST TO
OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND BY 00Z BEGINS TO ENCROACH
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS EAST EARLY AND CHANCE POPS WEST...THEN
TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS. LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH SOME BREAKS.
HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT MODELS TAKE SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
HOWEVER WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS TUESDAY HOWEVER TUESDAY NIGHT
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BOOST TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS EAST
HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS WEST AND LIKELY POPS EAST WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EARLY. THURSDAY AN UPPER LOW ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA
OUT OF THE NORTH. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN. TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEGA UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND TO GET THE LOCAL AREA BACK
INTO SPRING LIKE WEATHER. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES TO EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SO WILL GO AHEAD AND CUT BACK ON THE POPS OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AND BRING
WARMER AIR BACK TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL FORCE RAIN TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN AT THIS TIME AND THAT SHOULD MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. STILL EXPECTING LOW CEILINGS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY AS RAIN PULLS OUT TO THE EAST. SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AN ISSUE TODAY AS WELL BUT WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN
THE RAIN DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE
ON WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONGER WINDS TO RAISE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1144 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A few scattered showers will continue overnight but will likely
not be heavy enough to reduce visibilities in most locations
MLC area could receive a brief period of rain and possibly
a thunderstorm in the 06-07Z time range. Brief MVFR conditions
expected Monday morning due to low clouds before ceiling heights
rise again by early afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Enhanced area of light rain in a narrow band continues to spread
into parts of eastern OK this evening, likely in the vicinity of
850mb frontal zone that stretches just south of I-44. This area
will see the highest rain chances through early tonight with only
light amounts expected. Aside from that the forecast for tonight
looks reasonable with a limited threat of thunder later tonight
across far southeast OK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A few showers possible across northeast Oklahoma this evening in
association with passing upper wave. Brief MVFR conditions expected
Monday morning across NE OK/NW AR with lower cloud deck, however
ceiling heights are expected to rise back to VFR conditions by noon.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Showers lifting northeast across western OK will graze portions of
NE OK this afternoon. This activity should gradually dissipate
toward 00z as the isentropic lift forcing it weakens. Upper
shortwave trough over AZ/NM will slide northeast across our area
tonight. The 12z GFS/ECMWF and latest runs of the experimental
HRRR bring showers across NE OK tonight along the track of the
system. Farther to the south over west TX...increasing ~800 mb
frontogenetic lift in association with the upper wave will
produce one or more bands of rain and possibly a few lightning
strikes late tonight. This activity will spread northeast along
the frontal surface with the HRRR suggesting that it will clip
southeast OK going into Monday morning. Will carry higher chance
pops along the track of the upper wave up north...and down south
where it is most likely banded precip will occur...and only slight
chance pops in between.
Temperatures through Monday night...highs and lows...will run
roughly 10 degrees below average for this time of year. A warming
trend is expected by midweek...with highs returning to the 80s for
the latter part of the week.
The upper air pattern next week will be characterized by a deep
upper trough over the East and Gulf with a ridge over the Rockies.
Rich Gulf moisture will be scoured out by this pattern...with
tranquil weather expected. The upper features will slowly shift
east...with ridging over the Plains by the end of the week.
Eventually a deep upper trough over the West will eventually move
into the Plains early next week...and this will be our next chance
of storms. The moisture quality this system will have to work with
will not be as good as what we saw the last week of April however.
This may mitigate the overall severe potential.
Lacy
TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
$$
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
523 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
COMBINE WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY SOME COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKE TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC WARM FRONT DEPICTED RATHER NICELY BY LATEST...04Z RAP LLVL
/SFC-925 MB/ ANALYSIS OF LIFTED INDICES. THE FRONT SNAKES IT WAY
FROM NEAR KBTP...TO KDUJ...TO KIDI AND THEN SOUTH INTO MD
PANHANDLE. WEAKER ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXTENDED FURTHER NE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AT 0530Z...WHERE 850 MB BASED LI/S WERE ABOUT -1
TO -2C.
APPROACHING SFC WAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET
OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP TO CONTINUE BLOSSOMING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY.
THE HIGHEST POPS /90-100 PERCENT/ WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA...BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPR LEVEL JET
AND COLLOCATED WITH THE NOSE OF 1-2 SIGMA SOUTHERLY LLJ.
OVER THE SERN HALF OF PENN...POPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50-70
PERCENT RANGE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX RACES NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE CWA WAS LEADING TO SOME 1/4-1/2SM FOG OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NWRN PENN...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL VARY FROM THE MID
AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S
OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST.
INITIAL BATCH OF TSRA /IN THE FORM OF MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY/ WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NE OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD
BE A FEW TO SVRL HOUR LULL IN PRECIP...PRIOR TO ANOTHER ROUND OR
TWO OF TSRA FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND ALONG A NEARLY NORTH/SOUTH LEE TROUGH. MODELS PAINT MDT
INSTABILITY AND MDTLY STRONG LLVL SHEAR ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 18-23Z. RAP/NAM EHIS BRIEFLY POKE UP
INTO THE 1-1.5 M2/S2 RANGE TO THE SE OF I-81 IN THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY BETWEEN 20-23Z...BETWEEN THE SFC LEE TROUGH AND QUASI-
STNRY/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 15 TO 25
SM TO THE EAST OF THE LOWER SUSQ MAINSTEM. PRIOR TO ANY UPSCALE
GROWTH IN INDIVIDUAL TSRA TO A BKN LINE /QLCS/...SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD CONTAIN WEAK TO MDTLY STRONG MESOS. ANY THREAT FOR A
WEAK ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD BE EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER...INVOF OF
BETTER LLVL SHEAR AND LOWER LCL HEIGHTS NEAR THE STNRY FRONT.
ANY PRECIP ACROSS THE NW ZONES LATER TODAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
ISOLATED -SHRA AS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
KBFD AREA BETWEEN 16-18Z.
MAX TEMPS /USING A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND/ RANGE FORM THE L-M 50S
IN THE NW...TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE SOME PULSES OF WEAK-MDT UVVEL INVOF OF THE
SLOWING CFRONT ACROSS SERN PENN WILL BRING THE CHC FOR A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WITH HIGHLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
THE CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE
TUESDAY AS A FEW WEAK SFC WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE RIPPLE NE
ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED CFRONT JUST TO OUR SE WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NNW INTO THE REGION. WILL STRONGLY CONSIDER
BOOSTING POPS UP LATE TONIGHT AND TUES MORNING WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR WHERE
LATEST SREF/GEFS SHOW 90+ PERCENT PROBS FOR 0.10 OF AN INCH OF
RAINFL...WITH 60-80 PROBS FOR 0.25 INCH OF QPF.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE COOL UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE U40S AND MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE AS A COOL UPPER LOW DROPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AND SETTLES NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THAT.
THE PATTERN TURNS QUITE UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW DROPS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...ACROSS PA AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
EVOLUTION IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREV MODEL GUIDANCE...AND INSTEAD
OF WRAPPING A SURFACE LOW BACK TO THE NE INTO PA WILL NOW MAINLY
KEEP A STEADY FEED OF COOLER MOIST AIR - YET STILL RESULT IN
PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND ESP THU...WITH FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN
GENERAL AROUND THE WED NIGHT TO FRI RANGE.
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGE WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. STILL KEPT MENTION OF A
SHOWER SE ON SAT. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WAVE TO BRING CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ON SUNDAY...BUT MODEL CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THIS TIME.
SO OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER READING
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN A WARMING TREND. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE
TO BE HAD THIS WEEK WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN
A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CIGS. THE BOUNDARY HAS SLOWLY MOVED EASTWARD
AND DUE TO THE LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURES...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH LIFR VSBYS HAS SPREAD TO
ALL EASTERN TAF SITES. THIS FOG AND LOW STRATOCU SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING. IN ADDITION THE LOW CIGS...A BATCH OF SHRA
WITH TSRA WILL LIFT THRU THE REGION BTWN 08Z- 13Z ASSOC WITH AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. CURRENT RADAR HAS A LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST WITH ISOLATED TSRA MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
IMPROVING FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH
THRU THE REGION. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SUGGEST A RETURN TO
VFR CONDS IS LIKELY BY ARND 15Z AT KJST AND POSSIBLY BY AFTN
ACROSS THE EASTERN AIRFIELDS FROM KIPT SOUTH THRU KMDT/KLNS.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA. THIS COULD AFFECT MDT/LNS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY SE.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
332 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY SOME COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC WARM FRONT DEPICTED RATHER NICELY BY LATEST...04Z RAP LLVL
/SFC-925 MB/ ANALYSIS OF LIFTED INDICES. THE FRONT SNAKES IT WAY
FROM NEAR KBTP...TO KDUJ...TO KIDI AND THEN SOUTH INTO MD
PANHANDLE. WEAKER ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXTENDED FURTHER NE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AT 0530Z...WHERE 850 MB BASED LI/S WERE ABOUT -1
TO -2C.
APPROACHING SFC WAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET
OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP TO BLOSSOM CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY TODAY. THE HIGHEST POPS /90-100 PERCENT/ WILL BE
ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ALONG THE TRACK OF THE
PRESENT CENTRAL AND NRN OHIO CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/SMALL SCALE MCS.
OVER THE SERN HALF OF PENN...POPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50-70
PERCENT RANGE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX RACES NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE CWA WAS LEADING TO SOME 1/4-1/2SM FOG OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NWRN PENN...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE PREDAWN HOURS
WILL VARY FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST...TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
ANY CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH
AND SOME MEAGER HEATING OCCURS.
HOWEVER...THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR SEEMS TO HAPPEN JUST AS WE
ARE WARMING UP. WHAT ARE CURRENTLY WARM MAX TEMPS COULD BUST AS
WELL...IF THE CLOUD COVER IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN EXPECTED. WINDS
COULD GET GUSTY /20S/ OVER THE LAURELS AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
O
OVERALL...THE AFTERNOON LOOKS DRIER THAN THE MORNING. THE ONLY
CHC TS IS ACROSS THE NE IN THE EARLY MORNING AND WAY FAR IN THE
SOUTH. BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOW IN THE AFTN IN THE SOUTH TO MAKE ANY
MENTION AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE AS A COOL UPPER LOW DROPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AND SETTLES NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THAT.
AHEAD OF THAT THOUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID OR LATE
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...WAVE WILL SLIDE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH SPREADING SHOWERS BACK INTO SOUTHERN PA AND
ESP THE SUSQ VALLEY. TOTAL QPF IN THE HARRISBURG AREA LOOKS TO BE
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS HEADING N AND W.
THE PATTERN TURNS QUITE UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW DROPS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...ACROSS PA AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
EVOLUTION IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREV MODEL GUIDANCE...AND INSTEAD
OF WRAPPING A SURFACE LOW BACK TO THE NE INTO PA WILL NOW MAINLY
KEEP A STEADY FEED OF COOLER MOIST AIR - YET STILL RESULT IN
PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND ESP THU...WITH FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN
GENERAL AROUND THE WED NIGHT TO FRI RANGE.
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGE WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. STILL KEPT MENTION OF A
SHOWER SE ON SAT. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WAVE TO BRING CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ON SUNDAY...BUT MODEL CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THIS TIME.
SO OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER READING
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN A WARMING TREND. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE
TO BE HAD THIS WEEK WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN
A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CIGS. THE BOUNDARY HAS SLOWLY MOVED EASTWARD
AND DUE TO THE LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURES...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH LIFR VSBYS HAS SPREAD TO
ALL EASTERN TAF SITES. THIS FOG AND LOW STRATOCU SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING. IN ADDITION THE LOW CIGS...A BATCH OF SHRA
WITH TSRA WILL LIFT THRU THE REGION BTWN 08Z- 13Z ASSOC WITH AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. CURRENT RADAR HAS A LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST WITH ISOLATED TSRA MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
IMPROVING FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH
THRU THE REGION. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SUGGEST A RETURN TO
VFR CONDS IS LIKELY BY ARND 15Z AT KJST AND POSSIBLY BY AFTN
ACROSS THE EASTERN AIRFIELDS FROM KIPT SOUTH THRU KMDT/KLNS.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA. THIS COULD AFFECT MDT/LNS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY SE.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
159 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY SOME COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC WARM FRONT DEPICTED RATHER NICELY BY LATEST...04Z RAP LLVL
/SFC-925 MB/ ANALYSIS OF LIFTED INDICES. THE FRONT SNAKES IT WAY
FROM NEAR KBTP...TO KDUJ...TO KIDI AND THEN SOUTH INTO MD
PANHANDLE. WEAKER ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXTENDED FURTHER NE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AT 0530Z...WHERE 850 MB BASED LI/S WERE ABOUT -1
TO -2C.
APPROACHING SFC WAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET
OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP TO BLOSSOM CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY TODAY. THE HIGHEST POPS /90-100 PERCENT/ WILL BE
ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ALONG THE TRACK OF THE
PRESENT CENTRAL AND NRN OHIO CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/SMALL SCALE MCS.
OVER THE SERN HALF OF PENN...POPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50-70
PERCENT RANGE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX RACES NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE CWA WAS LEADING TO SOME 1/4-1/2SM FOG OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NWRN PENN...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE PREDAWN HOURS
WILL VARY FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST...TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
ANY CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH
AND SOME MEAGER HEATING OCCURS.
HOWEVER...THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR SEEMS TO HAPPEN JUST AS WE
ARE WARMING UP. WHAT ARE CURRENTLY WARM MAX TEMPS COULD BUST AS
WELL...IF THE CLOUD COVER IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN EXPECTED. WINDS
COULD GET GUSTY /20S/ OVER THE LAURELS AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
O
OVERALL...THE AFTERNOON LOOKS DRIER THAN THE MORNING. THE ONLY
CHC TS IS ACROSS THE NE IN THE EARLY MORNING AND WAY FAR IN THE
SOUTH. BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOW IN THE AFTN IN THE SOUTH TO MAKE ANY
MENTION AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE AS A COOL UPPER LOW DROPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AND SETTLES NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THAT.
AHEAD OF THAT THOUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID OR LATE
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...WAVE WILL SLIDE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH SPREADING SHOWERS BACK INTO SOUTHERN PA AND
ESP THE SUSQ VALLEY. TOTAL QPF IN THE HARRISBURG AREA LOOKS TO BE
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS HEADING N AND W.
THE PATTERN TURNS QUITE UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW DROPS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...ACROSS PA AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
EVOLUTION IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREV MODEL GUIDANCE...AND INSTEAD
OF WRAPPING A SURFACE LOW BACK TO THE NE INTO PA WILL NOW MAINLY
KEEP A STEADY FEED OF COOLER MOIST AIR - YET STILL RESULT IN
PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND ESP THU...WITH FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN
GENERAL AROUND THE WED NIGHT TO FRI RANGE.
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGE WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. STILL KEPT MENTION OF A
SHOWER SE ON SAT. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WAVE TO BRING CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ON SUNDAY...BUT MODEL CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THIS TIME.
SO OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER READING
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN A WARMING TREND. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE
TO BE HAD THIS WEEK WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN
A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CIGS. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY WILL BE AT
KJST...WHERE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RESULTING IN VFR CONDS
AT 03Z. LATEST HRRR AND SREF OUTPUT SUGGEST THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND TO RESULT IN LOW CIGS
AFTER 06Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOW CIGS NOT AS HIGH AS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. IN ADDITION THE LOW CIGS...A
BATCH OF SHRA AND EVEN A POSS TSRA WILL LIKELY LIFT THRU THE
REGION BTWN 08Z-13Z ASSOC WITH AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRES.
IMPROVING FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MONDAY...AS LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH THRU
THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. MDL SOUNDINGS AND
SREF PROBS SUGGEST A RETURN TO VFR CONDS IS LIKELY BY ARND 12Z AT
KJST AND POSSIBLY BY AFTN ACROSS THE EASTERN AIRFIELDS FROM KIPT
SOUTH THRU KMDT/KLNS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY SE.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
355 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
THE MAIN FEATURE TODAY IS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THIS LOW DOWN INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS IS
EVIDENCED BY FOLLOWING THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL QG FORCING. MOISTURE
IS FAIRLY DEEP WITH THIS SYSTEM IN OUR FAR WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY AROUND THE CHAMBERLAIN AREA...WHERE HIGH
END SCATTERED POPS ARE WARRANTED. BUT HEADING EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDLE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...THE MOISTURE PROFILE SHALLOWS OUT AS YOU
MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE WAVE. THIS WARRANTS JUST LOW END
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED POPS. IN OUR WEST...THE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER TO WARRANT A MENTION OF TSRA.
A SECOND FEATURE WHICH IS INTERESTING IS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
I 29 CORRIDOR. THE VARIOUS MODELS SHOW ABOUT A 75MB THICK CU DECK
CENTERED NEAR 750MB IN THAT STRIPE...WITH THE MOISTURE MORE SHALLOW
IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN ZONES FROM WINDOM TO STORM LAKE. BELIEVE WITH
THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND REMAINING UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW...
THAT WE WILL CU UP THIS AFTERNOON FROM I 29 EASTWARD...AND THE
MOISTURE DEPTH COULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I 29. THERE IS A SUBTLE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
NOTED AT 500MB VERY CLOSE TO SIOUX FALLS AT 00Z TUE...MAXIMIZED
WHERE THE AIR ALOFT IS THE COLDEST. WITH THE MID AND UPPER FLOW
SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST AT SIOUX CITY...KEPT KSUX DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I 29 COULD HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM ABOUT 3PM TO 6PM. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS...AS WELL AS THE ARW AND NMM.
OTHERWISE OVERALL THOUGH...WITH LIGHT WINDS IT WILL BE A NICE DAY
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE. FOR TONIGHT...IT
SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL AS OUR WESTERN WAVE DEPARTS LEAVING A RISK OF
SOME EARLY EVENING SHOWERS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THE HEATING DRIVEN
CUMULUS NEAR I 29 WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY. LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
TUESDAY ANOTHER STEP IN THE WARMER DIRECTION WITH A HEALTHY WESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD DROPPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCRAPING UP ALONG NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
CWA BORDER TOWARD EVENING...WHICH WILL GIVE A FULL DAY OF MIXING FOR
THE AREA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EARLY...BUT LOOK FOR A GREATER DEGREE
OF CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
MIXED VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A TAIL OF DIV Q WILL
BRUSH THROUGH SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE COULD BE ENOUGH TO ENTICE A FEW MORE WELL DEVELOPED
CUMULUS AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT LATE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUD LAYER STRUGGLING TO REACH -10C...LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH ICE PROCESS EVEN WITH 100-200 MLCAPE TO THREATEN ANY
LIGHTNING.
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH...ANY MAYBE A TOUCH STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE AS 20
TO 30 KNOTS IN WITHIN 1 KFT OF SURFACE DURING POST FRONTAL COLD
ADVECTION PERIOD...SO ADDED A TERRAIN ENHANCED 3-5 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE NIGHT. BLENDED IN TYPICALLY BETTER
CONSRAW MODEL DATA...AND EVEN THIS KEPT READINGS A BIT HIGHER TO
MATCH EXPECTED BREEZIER AREAS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SETTLE IN FOR A PLEASANT AND DRY PERIOD AS
OMEGA BLOCK BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE MID CONUS. SLIGHT COOLING
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE HEART OF THE AREA BY
EVENING...AND STILL OPEN FOR SOME BREEZIER NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY IN PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA. RIDGE LINGERS EAST OF I 29
ACROSS MAINLY NW IA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN FAVORING SOME OF THE
COLDER GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I 29. MORE SUN...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMING OFF SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN BOOST
READINGS INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO NUDGE EASTWARD OVER THE AREA...EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS WITH A FEW 80 DEGREES READINGS POPPING UP...BUT ALSO LIKELY
DEALING WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS.
THE OVERALL SITUATION BECOMES MUCH MORE MUDDLED BY THE WEEKEND...
WITH OMEGA BLOCK WEAKENING/BREAKDOWN SUBTLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS. MAIN DIFFERENCE LOOKS TO BE HOW STRONG HUDSON BAY
LOW MAINTAINS...AND WHAT KICK WAVE SLIDING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
GIVES TO EASTERN UPPER WAVE PORTION OF OMEGA BLOCK. IMPACT FOR OUR
AREA IS HOW AGGRESSIVELY A LOWER TO MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF/CANADIAN STRONGEST WITH WAVE FLATTENING RIDGE AND FASTEST AND
FURTHEST SOUTHWARD WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION...WHILE GFS A BIT MORE
LEISURELY IN PUSHING BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION ON
EVENTUAL PRECIPITATION THREAT BETWEEN SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS
PARTICULARLY WET THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...AND ECMWF QUICKLY SENDING
FOCUS MORE TOWARD I 80. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP FROM ANY STRONG
CONSENSUS AROUND THE REGION...AND AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY TRENDED FROM
FAIRLY BLANKETED UNIFORM POPS TO SHOW A BIT OF A LESSER CHANCE NORTH
VS. SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WESTERN UPPER LOW BEGINS A
WOBBLE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... AND
LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN/THUNDER DEVELOP JUST
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MORE
PREVALENT CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING BACK SEASONABLE 60S
ON SUNDAY.
WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP ONE EYE ON FRONTAL PROGRESSION ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF DECENT INSTABILITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY
AND POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE LOCALIZED SHEAR...MAINLY LOWER IN THE
WIND PROFILE...COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS IN THE
AREA OF THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED
AT 936 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
WITH THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT...WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AND MAINLY SOUTH I 90. MODELS ARE NOT VERY ENTHUSIASTIC
ABOUT THE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT FEEL THAT THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL
IN LOW LYING AREAS FOR MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY AT KFSD AND KSUX
GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL BE INTO ND LATER THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM RADARS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP ON LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ND...MOVING SOUTHWARD. AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND EVEN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
SD. LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TODAY...BUT A FEW MEMBERS BRING THINGS INTO
THE JAMES VALLEY. IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS AN EVEN
FURTHER EASTWARD PUSH IN ACTIVITY TODAY AND BRINGS A LINE OF SHOWERS
INTO THE JAMES VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISO/WDLY SCT
AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN CWA TOWARDS I-29.
COOL POCKET OF 500 MB TEMPS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY ALLOWING FOR
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE HRRR CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF THIS EASTWARD PUSH IS A TREND THAT
CONTINUES. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...HAVE SLID POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST
TODAY...BUT KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD PROVIDE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS SO KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...MAKING WAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND LONGEVITY OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
HIGHS. KEPT WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THEY
WILL BE LEAST IMPACTED BY THESE VARIABLES. HIGHS COULD PUSH 70
THERE. 60S ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE BUT RANGE OF 60S ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP DURATION/FREQUENCY. TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN MILD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS A
NICE SURGE OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT 925/850 MB MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. WILL ALSO HAVE GOOD MIXING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST HELPING
TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS DAMPENED AS A
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY SWINGS ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
WITH DECENT WAA IN PLACE...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z...THEN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KMBG AND
KPIR WILL BE AFFECTED.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
400 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70S AT MEMPHIS...BUT ARE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS IS THE COOLEST AREA WHERE CORNING AND WALNUT RIDGE ARE
REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S. MORNING LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA STRETCHING FROM NEAR
PARIS TENNESSEE ACROSS MEMPHIS INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING...WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LAPS LI`S ARE BELOW -2C ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH CAPE 350 J/KG OR LESS. HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HELPING TO PROVIDE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LAPS RATES ARE MODEST...AROUND 7.5C SO HAIL WOULD
BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...UP TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING SO
HOPEFULLY THAT WILL LIMIT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE HRRR HAD BEEN
PERFORMING WELL UNTIL YESTERDAY...AND DOESN`T SEEM TO HAVE A
HANDEL ON THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND NORTH
LOUISIANA. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING.
IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT. HIGHS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MAY APPROACH 80 ONE MORE
DAY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS AFTERNOON...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY GIVING THE SURFACE FRONT ANOTHER
NUDGE OFF TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
WE WILL SEE A BLOCKING PATTERN SET UP TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS....POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT BENIGN WEATHER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MAY BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO
WEST TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
HIGHS MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S IN DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WORK WEEK IN THE COOLEST PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. WIDESPREAD
LOW 70S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
WEEK OR SO SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY MORNING WHEN SOME
LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE LOW 50S MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
WARMER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHORT TERM MODELS DEPICT SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY SOUTH
AND ALONG I-40 OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES OF -TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE AT
12Z-15Z AT KMEM AND KMKL...AND 15Z-18Z AT KTUP. COVERAGE WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE TOMORROW MORNING AT KMEM AND KMKL. RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT KTUP UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR
AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMEM...KMKL..AND KTUP...AND ONLY
VFR ARE EXPECTED FOR KJBR.
JPM3
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
157 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL HEAD INTO
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...STALLING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN FINALLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST BY MIDWEEK. FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...KEEPING AN UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1113 PM EDT SUNDAY...
UPDATED TO DROP SEVERE WATCH 135 AS DEEPER CONVECTION HAS EITHER
MOVED EAST OF THE WATCH BOX OR HAS WEAKENED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA
ALONG THE BOTTOM EDGE OF THE BOX. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING SOME
CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ESPCLY EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE INSTABILITY REMAINS AROUND 1K J/KG. THUS
KEEPING HIGHER POPS GOING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CUTTING
POPS BACK TO ISOLATED PER LATEST HRRR. ALSO FOG LIKELY TO BECOME
AN ISSUE GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENING SO BEEFED UP COVERAGE. OTRW ONLY SOME
SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTS TO TEMPS OVERNIGHT PER SATURATION AND
LINGERING CLOUDS.
UPDATE AS OF 1000 PM EDT SUNDAY...
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPILL EAST/SE TOWARD AND
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE SO WILL HANG ON TO THE GOING WATCH A WHILE
LONGER AND PERHAPS DROP AROUND 11 PM PENDING TRENDS. HOWEVER
EARLIER HRRR WAS ON TRACK WITH CELLS EVOLVING INTO A LINE AND
DIPPING SOUTH SO WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS GOING FARTHER SOUTH GIVEN
LINGERING 1500 J/KG MLCAPE SEEN OFF THE SPC ANALYSIS. ALSO
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NW NC TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE MAY
IMPACT SOUTHERN SECTIONS LONGER OVERNIGHT SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
OTRW FEW ADDED CHANGES UNTIL CONVECTION FADES SOME AS THE
REMAINDER LOOKS ON TRACK FOR NOW.
UPDATE AS OF 750 PM EDT SUNDAY...
UPDATE TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 135 FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTH AND WEST UNTIL MIDNIGHT. STORMS CONTINUE TO ROLL ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY. ENOUGH RECOVERY HAS OCCURRED SINCE
EARLIER RAINFALL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO MAINTAIN SEVERE
STRENGTH UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE
DEEPER CONVECTION REMAINS IFFY GIVEN LESS CAPE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. FEW OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 320 PM EDT SUNDAY...
FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN UPPER WAVES. LOOKING FURTHER
WEST...ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE OVER KY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
UPPER SHORTWAVE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES. AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING
THIS WAVE IS GOING TO NOSE EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THINKING IS THE SAME AS
EARLIER...IN THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY
EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A SCT/BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
POSSIBLY SHIFTING EAST/SOUTHEAST FROM SE WV TO THE PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. SVR PARAMETERS FAVOR STRONGER STORMS IN WV/KY/FAR SW
VA...BUT WEAKEN FURTHER EAST...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT STRONGER STORMS
TO THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING. ORIENTATION OF THE CONVECTION AND
SPEED OF MOVEMENT SHOULD PREVENT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT...THOUGH
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE 1 INCH+ WE HAD EARLIER
TODAY IN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. STILL NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLOOD
WATCH.
FOR LATE TONIGHT...SHOWERS WANE AND WILL SEE CONTINUED SW ALOFT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY GIVEN HIGHER
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LVLS. FOG PARAMETERS ALSO FAVOR GOOD COVERAGE OF
FOG ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS AND WHERE IT RAINS THIS
EVENING...DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE
CONVECTION.
MONDAY...WE WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT MOVE FROM THE EASTERN OHIO
VALLEY SOUTHWEST TO MIDDLE TN IN THE MORNING...SLOWLY EAST TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING ALOFT BUT WILL STILL SEE SOME
SUNSHINE AT TIMES AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MUCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG
BY MID AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT AGREEMENT THAT THE 2ND OF
THE UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON LEADING TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. IF THE FRONT MOVES QUICKER THEN CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER
LOW LVL INSTABILITY. THE BEST SHEAR LOOKS TO SITUATE ITSELF FROM FAR
SW VA/SE KY NORTHWARD INTO THE MD/PA AREA...SO THIS COULD LEAD TO
MORE OF A WIND THREAT IN OUR FAR WRN CWA...WITH MARGINALLY STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS EAST.
BETTER LOW LVL AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DOES NOT REALLY GET GOING
UNTIL AFTER 21Z/5PM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SO COULD BE ANOTHER LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING EVENT.
WITH NO WEDGE MONDAY AND DEPENDING ON SKY COVER...TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER 80S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT SUBJECTING AREA TO NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS. PENDING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST
STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
SEND ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY...BEGINNING A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. OTHER THAN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...NOT
MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. FRONTAL LIFT WILL PROVIDE A
BETTER CHANCE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FAVOR READINGS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TUMBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. 85H
TEMPS OF 0 TO +5 DEG C ARE PROGGED TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND IF THIS VERIFIES...IT WILL SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS THE UPPER
LOW PASSES OVERHEAD...COLD POOL ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING FOR A DAILY THREAT OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS.
CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT PER BLOCKY LOOK TO THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN...WITH CUTOFF LOWS ON THE WEST AND EAST COASTS AND
A RIDGE UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. UNLIKE THE LAST OMEGA BLOCK
WHERE THE MID ATLANTIC ENJOYED UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...JUST THE OPPOSITE IS OCCURRING THIS GO
ROUND.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE MODELS INDICATE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EAST TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
MODERATING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
ATTM...WEEKEND AS A WHOLE LOOKS DRY. WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INSTABILITY...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE MUCH COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT MONDAY...
EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOSTLY SUBSIDED...BUT
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT.
WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR FOR MOST TAF SITES...THE EXCEPTION IS
KBLF WHERE CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN TO LIFR ALONG WITH 1/2SM FOG. DUE
TO THE MOIST GROUND FROM RECENT RAINFALL...IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY
THAT MOST TAF SITES WILL DROP TO IFR DUE TO GROUND FOG. CONFIDENCE
IS LOWEST FOR IFR AT KROA WHERE CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES MAY STAY
AT VFR...ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY.
WINDS SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING MONDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY LATE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME BROKEN CUMULUS TO DEVELOP AS
SOME SUNSHINE DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION SEEMS MORE WIDESPREAD...SO A MENTION OF
VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT ALL SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVERHEAD ON MONDAY EVENING...AND WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DURING TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE MID ATLANTIC IN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DURING TUESDAY...BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS PUSHED EASTWARD BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY...AND SETTLE
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK. OVERALL...FLYING
CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER POOR FOR LATE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS...PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND PATCHY FOG.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
325 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS/TEMPERATURES AND THEN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
AMONG THE 02.00Z RUNS AND WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED APPROACH.
FOR TODAY...A SHORT-WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...KEEPING PRECIP WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO HOME...RAP/GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING TO EVENTUALLY FILL-IN WITH BROKEN
THERMAL CUMULUS. COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES FROM THIS CLOUD DECK
GIVEN HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS UP TO AT LEAST 500 HPA...NOT
EXPECTING ANY MEANINGFUL SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY...BUT SPRINKLES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER TODAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 60S.
THERMAL CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 HPA TEMPERATURES RISE TO BETWEEN +13 AND
+15 CELSIUS RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WI TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90.
BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO DEEPENS TO AROUND 800 HPA WITH ROUGHLY 25 TO
30 KTS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 30 MPH OR MORE. ELSEWHERE...
EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
25 MPH.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF 100 KT 300
HPA JET STREAK WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS PROGRESSING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. AS A RESULT...INCREASED POPS TO 80 PERCENT LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW 100-200 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. WITH A
COOLER WEDNESDAY (HIGHS UPPER 50S/60S) IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY
NIGHT/S FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE EACH DAY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGHS BY FRIDAY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
70S AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500 HPA RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CONUS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH AND A FOUR CORNERS
CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES
AT THIS POINT TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
MOSTLY SKC/SCT FROM I-90 NORTH...BUT TO THE SOUTH BKN VFR CIGS HAVE
PERSISTED...AND MAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCT-BKN CIGS SHOULD RETURN
FOR THE TAF SITES TOWARD 18Z MONDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAVOR CU DEVELOPMENT. DON/T THINK -SHRA
ARE A THREAT AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK TO STAY LIGHT THANKS TO A
SAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH DIRECTION VARIABLE BETWEEN NORTHWEST-
NORTHEAST...THEN MORE VRBL AT NIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1203 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS BEING PRECEDED BY AN
AREA OF CONVECTION...IMPACTING MAINLY NORTHERN POTIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTERIOR SW CT. HRRR SHOWS SOME SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING A N-S LINE...MAINLY EAST OF NYC THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR. FOR
THE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING ALOFT AND THE NEXT SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT STILL WELL TO
THE SW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECASTED
MID LEVEL DRYING ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY ALMOST 10 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.
FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.
A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY IFR CIGS...GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE LOW ON WIND FORECAST. GRADIENT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH
FOR VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS...BCMG SE 5-10 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY
RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO
IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SEAS ARE NOW
BELOW 5 FT AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS WITH A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND
FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD COME CLOSE TO 5
FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4 FT.
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.
PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1020 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS BEING PRECEDED BY AN
AREA OF CONVECTION...IMPACTING MAINLY NORTHERN POTIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTERIOR SW CT. HRRR SHOWS SOME SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING A N-S LINE...MAINLY EAST OF NYC THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR. FOR
THE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING ALOFT AND THE NEXT SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT STILL WELL TO
THE SW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECASTED
MID LEVEL DRYING ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY ALMOST 10 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.
FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.
A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT DEPARTS TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...THEN ANOTHER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY E/NE AOB 10 KT THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR CONDS DURING THE AFTN. SEVERAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR...ALTHOUGH
TIMING REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AND COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF IN THE
TAFS. BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH 14Z TO 16Z W TERMINALS
AND 15Z TO 18Z E TERMINALS.
WIND FORECAST THIS AFTN AND EVE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. IFR OR
LOWER CONDS SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS OFF DEPENDING ON WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTN.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDS MAY IMPROVE TO IFR EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. LOW CHC OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY
RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO
IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SEAS ARE NOW
BELOW 5 FT AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS WITH A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND
FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD COME CLOSE TO 5
FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4 FT.
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.
PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1018 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS INITIAL WARM BUBBLE AROUND 650-700 MBS WITH
COOLER AIR ALOFT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO GET THROUGH THE WARM/DRY
LAYER...BUT ONCE IT DOES...WE MAY SEE A STRONG STORM OR TWO OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL NEAR 1 INCH. WINDS ARE
LIGHT IN THE STEERING COLUMN...BUT WESTERLIES INCREASE WITH HEIGHT
ABOVE 15KFT. THIS MAY HELP VENT STORMS AND KEEP UPDRAFTS FROM
COLLAPSING.
AS FAR AS COVERAGE GOES...THE HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS 40 TO 60 PERCENT COVERAGE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDDED FORECAST TO SHOW HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. MOST OF
THESE SHOULD BE GONE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
UPDATES TO TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
MANY TAF SITES ARE SEEING MVFR CEILINGS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS
TO MIX. EXPECT THESE TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH A RETURN TO VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LAL HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT NEAR THE COAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT...THEN
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE WE DONT EXPECT
TO NEED ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
NEED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 74 85 73 / 10 10 30 40
FMY 89 73 88 73 / 20 10 30 20
GIF 90 71 87 70 / 40 40 50 20
SRQ 83 73 83 73 / 10 10 30 30
BKV 88 68 84 67 / 20 10 40 50
SPG 86 74 84 73 / 10 10 30 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...JILLSON
UPPER AIR...DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...MCKAUGHAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1058 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHALLENGING CONVECTIVE FCST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NSSL WRF-
ARW AND NCAR ENSEMBLES SHOW LITTLE CONVECTION TIL ABOUT 20Z-21Z.
MORNING RAOBS AT ABERDEEN AND DULLES SHOWED A DECENT INVERSION
THAT WILL STILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME WITH MAXT IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE CINH REMAINING THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AT DULLES. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SEVERE WX.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW LOW CLOUDS REMAINING EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BUT THINNING OUT SOME ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-66. USING A
24-HR TREND FOR TEMPERATURES FROM VARIOUS MODELS AND APPLYING TO
YDAY`S HIGH BRINGS HIGHS TO NEAR 80F SOUTHERN AREAS...MID 70S
AROUND DC AND ONLY MID 60S IN NORTHEAST MD. THINK THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WX WILL BE OVER CHARLOTTESVILLE...FREDERICKSBURG AND
SOUTHERN MD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW MULTIPLE SFC WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
FROM WV ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT. RAIN/SHOWERS APPEAR DEFINITE
TONIGHT WITH RAIN BEGINNING TO PULL OUT OF THE REGION TUE MORNING.
FCST WAS UPDATED TO LOWER POPS TODAY AND INCREASE POPS TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE XTND PD WL BE THE UPR TROF SITUATED
OVR THE NERN U.S. WED NGT-FRI. THIS WL ENSURE XTNSV CLD CVR FOR
THE AREA ALONG W/ CHCS FOR RAFL. HIGH TEMPS - IN THE 60S...WL BE
ABT TEN DEGS BLO NRML FOR ERLY MAY.
LOW IS XPCTD TO LIFT TO THE NE SAT...BRINGING A RETURN VISIT FM
THE SUN. AFTN HTG COULD BRING A CHC OF RW/TRW SAT. A CD FNT MAY
PUSH THRU THE RGN SUNDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHC FOR PCPN.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. CIGS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY BUT DROP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN RAIN.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
TAPERING OFF LATE TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED MARGINAL CONDS.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE SHOWERS.
XTNSV CLD CVR WL BE IN THE FCST OVR THE MID ATLC WED NGT-
FRI...SUB-VFR CIGS MAY BE PSBL AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MAY WARRANT SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS...PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS XPCTD TO STAY BLO SCA LVLS DURG THE SECOND HALF OF THE WK.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...LFR/ABW
MARINE...LFR/ABW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
733 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WRN
NORTH AMERICA WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NORTH
AMERICA INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED
IN A WEAK NW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE
REGION CLOUD-FREE OVERNIGHT. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
SHALLOW PATCHY FOG AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING OVER IRONWOOD AREA
WHERE SFC OBS INDICATE CONDITIONS NEAR SATURATION AND WHERE SFC HIGH
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE AT 12Z. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE WITH DIURNAL MIXING.
TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL AGAIN ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE REACHING THE FARTHEST
INLAND. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CU DEVELOPMENT
ALONG LAKE BREEZES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA IN THE EVENING WILL SLIDE SE LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NRN ONTARIO. ADVANCING
WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING FROM
DEVELOPING SW GRADIENT WIND BTWN DEPARTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FALLING TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER...UNTIL THEN GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO LOWER NEAR
THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS INTERIOR WEST AND
CENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
TUESDAY...A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WILL BRING THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN TO
UPPER MICHIGAN IN OVER A WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SSE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...INITIATING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY INCREASING MID TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S
INLAND. ADDITIONALLY...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25MPH FOR THE WEST LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
AFTER A WEEK OF DRYING...FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED FOR
TUESDAY. FIRE WX INDICES FOR ALL FUELS...ESPECIALLY GRASSY
FUELS...HAVE BEEN BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AREAS OF
MOST CONCERN INCLUDE THE INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE SE HALF IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SLOW WHILE
CROSSING THE REGION...RESULTING IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
INLAND AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. BLUSTERY NNW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS...TEMPS IN THE 40S...WILL PRODUCE A RATHER CHILLY DAY FOR
EARLY MAY. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR MAY FAIL TO
REACH 40F.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
QUICKER WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH A SURGE OF WARMER
AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...HAVE TRENDED WARMER
WITH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS LOOKS TO TOP OUT WELL IN THE 70S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WEST. WINDS LOOK RATHER LIGHT...SO FIRE WX CONCERNS
WILL BE LOWER ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS AT KCMX TOWARD TUE
MORNING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM ONTARIO.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO
20 KNOTS. AS RIDGE SAGS SE TONIGHT...WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME
N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH WINDS TO
LESS THAN 20KT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
651 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Complex and messy upper air pattern remains across the region this
morning. Leading s/w continues to approach the region early this
morning and is responsible for light RA across swrn into central MO.
This area of precip shud continue to move newd thru the area this
morning. Mdls suggest it will dissipate as it moves into the CWA
around sunrise. While this is possible due to the better low level
moisture convergence pushes S of the area, believe the leading s/w
will be sufficient to maintain higher PoPs thru mid-morning.
For the remainder of the day, have kept PoPs in the slight chance
range for now as isod to widely sct SHRA are expected today.
However, coverage may be somewhat higher across nrn half to third
of the CWA as the upper trof pulls newd thru the area today. The
bulk of these SHRA will be diurnally driven and shud dissipate
this evening.
As for temps today, with extensive cloud cover in place, and with
the trof in place today, do not expect much clearing today except
for the srn third or so of the CWA. Where breaks to occur this
morning, believe CU will develop, filling them in. This complicates
the temps forecast for today as a strong May sun can help temps jump
even with a short period of insolation. Still, believe clouds will
be the rule for today and have trended temps aob the cooler guidance
for much of the CWA. The exception will be the srn portions where
more insolation is expected. This same area is also along and S of
the 850mb fnt, which shud help warm temps today.
Tilly
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Will see some lingering isolated/scattered showers this evening
in cyclonic flow on back side of system. The activity will
gradually taper off. Otherwise, clouds to slowly thin out from
north to south overnight and lows will be in the 40s, a bit below
normal for this time of year.
Because of the lingering cyclonic flow, could still see some
isolated showers in the far eastern portions of forecast area on
Tuesday. However, most locations to remain dry with partly sunny
skies and highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Then Tuesday night, a more vigorous trof/secondary cold front
associated with surface low anchored over the Great Lakes region to
slide south through area. So increased pops with scattered showers
for portions of west central/southwest IL Tuesday night through
Wednesday, as main energy to remain to our northeast and east.
For rest of work week, will see dry conditions with temperatures
slowly moderating. By Friday highs will be in the low to mid 70s and
in the upper 70s to low 80s on Saturday. Then next significant
weather system to approach region Saturday night and Sunday with
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms through the rest
of the weekend.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Expect bkn to ovc clouds thru much of today, with clouds breaking
up this evening. A couple of areas of light RA are moving thru the
region this morning. Expect SHRA to develop by Noon across the
region and dissipate this evening. Given the isod nature of these
SHRA, have only mentioned VCSH during the times for best chances
of impacting terminals for now. Will need to continue to monitor
as some of the latest guidance suggests coverage may be higher for
KUIN/KCOU this afternoon. Cigs will be difficult today with KUIN
gradually improving thru the day. KCOU shud remain in MVFR range
thru the morning and perhaps into the afternoon before improving.
Otherwise, nwly winds will prevail today becoming light tonight.
Specifics for KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: Cigs shud lower into MVFR range over
the next couple of hours. Expect isod SHRA to develop later this
morning into the afternoon hours. Cigs shud move E of terminals
with cloud clearing out this evening.
Tilly
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 60 48 67 52 / 30 20 10 10
Quincy 55 44 66 49 / 20 10 10 20
Columbia 57 44 67 49 / 20 5 10 10
Jefferson City 58 44 68 49 / 20 5 10 5
Salem 62 48 65 49 / 20 20 20 20
Farmington 62 45 67 47 / 20 10 10 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
645 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
A blocking pattern is in place with a high amplitude ridge axis
over western NOAM with downstream troughing over the Midwest into
the central Plains. Clouds and some light radar return are
occurring in a band of forcing roughly along the I-44 corridor. We
will continue to see sprinkles/r-/r-- today with abundant clouds
and cool temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Another disturbance/shortwave will pivot through the area Tue.
Some guidance has been spitting out precip here and there Tue
afternoon and with relatively cool air aloft this makes sense.
Certainly nothing noteworthy other than sprinkles and clouds at
times.
One more shortwave now over the high latitudes of Canada will
moves sse into MN by midday Tue and then into the OH Vly Wed. This
will veer winds to the nw-nnw Wednesday but little else. A
warming trend will occur late in the week as the western upper
level ridge moves into the Plains. 850mb temperatures support
highs in the low 80s deg F for Sat.
General global model agreement exists in shifting a closed upper
low into the central High Plains by late Sunday. A downstream
weakening upper level ridge axis will still be in place near or
just east of our cwfa. Low amplitude lead shortwaves ahead of the
parent low are expected to move n-nne into/through the region with
increased chances for showers/tstms, especially over the western
cwfa late Saturday night and Sunday. This could begin an extended
unsettled humid period of ocnl showers/tstms into the work week
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Cloud cover will be the rule for much of the forecast for the
regions terminals through Tuesday early morning. Ceilings will be
MVFR through this morning with VFR ceilings expected for the
remainder of the afternoon and evening. A few showers will also be
possible for the Springfield and Branson aerodromes early this
morning. Overall flight conditions will begin to improve
overnight as cloud cover scatters out early Tuesday morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
318 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Complex and messy upper air pattern remains across the region this
morning. Leading s/w continues to approach the region early this
morning and is responsible for light RA across swrn into central MO.
This area of precip shud continue to move newd thru the area this
morning. Mdls suggest it will dissipate as it moves into the CWA
around sunrise. While this is possible due to the better low level
moisture convergence pushes S of the area, believe the leading s/w
will be sufficient to maintain higher PoPs thru mid-morning.
For the remainder of the day, have kept PoPs in the slight chance
range for now as isod to widely sct SHRA are expected today.
However, coverage may be somewhat higher across nrn half to third
of the CWA as the upper trof pulls newd thru the area today. The
bulk of these SHRA will be diurnally driven and shud dissipate
this evening.
As for temps today, with extensive cloud cover in place, and with
the trof in place today, do not expect much clearing today except
for the srn third or so of the CWA. Where breaks to occur this
morning, believe CU will develop, filling them in. This complicates
the temps forecast for today as a strong May sun can help temps jump
even with a short period of insolation. Still, believe clouds will
be the rule for today and have trended temps aob the cooler guidance
for much of the CWA. The exception will be the srn portions where
more insolation is expected. This same area is also along and S of
the 850mb fnt, which shud help warm temps today.
Tilly
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Will see some lingering isolated/scattered showers this evening
in cyclonic flow on back side of system. The activity will
gradually taper off. Otherwise, clouds to slowly thin out from
north to south overnight and lows will be in the 40s, a bit below
normal for this time of year.
Because of the lingering cyclonic flow, could still see some
isolated showers in the far eastern portions of forecast area on
Tuesday. However, most locations to remain dry with partly sunny
skies and highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Then Tuesday night, a more vigorous trof/secondary cold front
associated with surface low anchored over the Great Lakes region to
slide south through area. So increased pops with scattered showers
for portions of west central/southwest IL Tuesday night through
Wednesday, as main energy to remain to our northeast and east.
For rest of work week, will see dry conditions with temperatures
slowly moderating. By Friday highs will be in the low to mid 70s and
in the upper 70s to low 80s on Saturday. Then next significant
weather system to approach region Saturday night and Sunday with
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms through the rest
of the weekend.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Surface low over southern IN will continue moving eastward
late tonight. Surface ridging extended from the Plains into
northwestern MO. MVFR cigs over northern portions of MO and IL
which were over UIN and have just moved into COU should continue
to slowly advect south-southeastward into the St Louis metro area
around 06-07Z Monday. These cigs will drop into the IFR catagory
by early Monday morning. There will also be light fog late
tonight and early Monday morning. The cloud ceiling will gradually
rise into the MVFR catagory late Monday morning, and possibly into
the VFR catagory by late Monday afternoon or early Monday evening.
A narrow band of light showers moving into southwest MO may move
into COU and the St Louis metro area early Monday morning. An
upper level disturbance will also bring widely scattered showers
to the area on Monday, especially during the afternoon. A
northwesterly surface wind will continue through the period.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs will move southeastward into STL
around 06Z Monday. The ceiling will drop into the IFR catagory
by early morning with light fog developing. The fog will
dissipate by late morning along with the cigs rising into the MVFR
catagory. The ceiling may rise into the VFR catagory by late
Monday afternoon or early Monday evening. There may be a few
showers on Monday. Nwly surface wind will continue through the
period, becoming light Monday evening.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 60 48 67 52 / 30 20 10 10
Quincy 55 44 66 49 / 20 10 10 20
Columbia 57 44 67 49 / 20 5 10 10
Jefferson City 58 44 68 49 / 20 5 10 5
Salem 62 48 65 49 / 20 20 20 20
Farmington 62 45 67 47 / 20 10 10 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
300 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
A blocking pattern is in place with a high amplitude ridge axis
over western NOAM with downstream troughing over the Midwest into
the central Plains. Clouds and some light radar return are
occurring in a band of forcing roughly along the I-44 corridor. We
will continue to see sprinkles/r-/r-- today with abundant clouds
and cool temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Another disturbance/shortwave will pivot through the area Tue.
Some guidance has been spitting out precip here and there Tue
afternoon and with relatively cool air aloft this makes sense.
Certainly nothing noteworthy other than sprinkles and clouds at
times.
One more shortwave now over the high latitudes of Canada will
moves sse into MN by midday Tue and then into the OH Vly Wed. This
will veer winds to the nw-nnw Wednesday but little else. A
warming trend will occur late in the week as the western upper
level ridge moves into the Plains. 850mb temperatures support
highs in the low 80s deg F for Sat.
General global model agreement exists in shifting a closed upper
low into the central High Plains by late Sunday. A downstream
weakening upper level ridge axis will still be in place near or
just east of our cwfa. Low amplitude lead shortwaves ahead of the
parent low are expected to move n-nne into/through the region with
increased chances for showers/tstms, especially over the western
cwfa late Saturday night and Sunday. This could begin an extended
unsettled humid period of ocnl showers/tstms into the work week
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
A weak upper level storm system will produce a few light rain
showers across southern Missouri overnight. Ceilings will also
lower into the MVFR category by late tonight. There is still a
signal for a brief period of IFR ceilings just after
sunrise...especially around Springfield.
Ceilings will then improve from mid-morning onward on Monday.
However, MVFR will remain likely through at least early afternoon.
Winds will remain out of the northwest generally below 10 knots.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
254 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Water vapor imagery early this morning showing a well-defined
wave diving south through the upper Miss Vly/northern Central Plains
in developing northerly flow aloft. Out ahead of this
feature...regional radars showing a concentrated area of shwr
activity just to our south along the I-44 corridor...with a secondary
area of lighter activity noted across east-central Kansas. This
secondary region may lead to a few light sprinkles/shwrs across the
KC Metro and surrounding areas this morning...and grids have been
adjusted accordingly. Otherwise...fcst models continue to hint at
developing instability shwrs across all areas later today as main
upper wave passes. This activity will most likely develop after
15z...and the very spotty appearance in available short-term model
guidance precludes going anything higher than a slgt chc mention for
now. With regards to high temps...periodic breaks in the cloud cover
should allow temps to warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s this
afternoon...with the warmest values expected across the western
zones.
Secondary wave to pass across the region overnight however with loss
of weak daytime instability and an influx of drier air...feature
should pass with little impact. Tomorrow will mark the start of a
pleasant and mostly dry period which will persist through the
remainder of the work week. Following the passage of a weak but dry
cold front Tuesday night/early Wednesday...fcst models largely in
agreement that a strong omega block will develop over the Nation`s
midsection towards the latter half of the work week. As a
result...building heights and developing warm air advection by Friday
should allow a nice warming trend to get underway heading into the
weekend. In fact temps by Saturday could be flirting with the 80
degree mark as the ridge axis passes directly overhead. While
Saturday looks dry...next round of shwrs/storms looks to return on
Sunday as upper pattern begins shifting to the southwest ahead of a
strong Great Basin upper low. Gulf looks to open right up heading
into the late weekend with precip chances easily continuing into
early next week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Drier air slowly working into the region early this morning which is
resulting in a categorical increase back to VFR at most forecast
locations. For now...have decided to play the optimistic card and
currently have a mostly VFR fcst through roughly 14z at all
locations. After this time...daytime heating and the arrival of the
next weather system will result in a brief period if MVFR cigs before
improving by the 18z time frame. As this feature arrives...a brief
shwr or two will be possible at all locations with activity likely
coming to an end by 00z. Winds to remain from the northwest between
5-10 kts.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...32
Aviation...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1233 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 219 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
A little wet and cloudy along the Iowa border with comparatively
nice conditions farther south across east central Kansas into
central Missouri has been the prevailing pattern for today. However,
the upper level shortwave trough is sliding northeast out of Iowa
this afternoon has induced enough of a return flow on the backside
that low clouds and a few showers are now moving through northern
Missouri. Areas south of the Missouri River where able to bound in
the 60s, but cloud cover and northerly winds farther north have kept
conditions cooler and damper.
Rest of the afternoon through Monday...cool, cloud, and likely
damp,conditions will prevail. While the shortwave in Iowa is moving
away this afternoon, a follow on shortwave trough is expected to
quickly exit the Desert Southwest late tonight, ejecting along a
slightly more southern track than the leading shortwave moving
through Iowa. Ultimately, this should keep the lower clouds and
potential for scattered showers persisting across the region
overnight and through the day Monday as a result. Have tossed in
chance POPs for late Monday morning and the afternoon hours as the
shortwave trough ejects into and through the Southern and Central
Plains. This could make for a soupy day, with low clouds, drizzle
and scattered showers dominating. However, with the exiting of the
secondary shortwave that night, warmer temperatures and less cloudy
skies will prevail in the days afterwards.
Tuesday on into the next weekend...will be dominated by dry weather
and nice temperatures. With the secondary shortwave exiting the
region Monday night into Tuesday the region will quickly get
dominated by a large amplitude ridge sandwiched between two large
cutoff circulations; one over the east coast with the other over the
Great Basin. Temperatures under the ridge will warm into the 70s
with lows in the 50s. Otherwise, given the pattern set up later in
the work week, expect that sometime late in the weekend --but more
likely early next work week-- the Great Basin trough will start
ejecting through the Plains and likely result in our next widespread
chance for storms in the region.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
Drier air slowly working into the region early this morning which is
resulting in a categorical increase back to VFR at most forecast
locations. For now...have decided to play the optimistic card and
currently have a mostly VFR fcst through roughly 14z at all
locations. After this time...daytime heating and the arrival of the
next weather system will result in a brief period if MVFR cigs before
improving by the 18z time frame. As this feature arrives...a brief
shwr or two will be possible at all locations with activity likely
coming to an end by 00z. Winds to remain from the northwest between
5-10 kts.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
We have increased PoPs into the 30-40% range for the late evening
and overnight period generally along and just north of the I-44
corridor. A mid-level frontogenetic zone (centered around 750 mb)
will be the primary focus for the shower activity. Amounts will be
very light...generally less than 0.05".
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
An upper level ridge will build east across the plains during the
middle of the week then over the region late in the week into
early next weekend. This will allow a warming trend to occur as
highs return to the lower 70s on Wednesday, with temperatures
warming into the upper 70s to the lower 80s by Saturday.
An upper level low will then track east across the southwestern
U.S then into the plains late this weekend into early next week.
As this system approaches from the west, thunderstorm chances
will return to the area late next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
A weak upper level storm system will produce a few light rain
showers across southern Missouri overnight. Ceilings will also
lower into the MVFR category by late tonight. There is still a
signal for a brief period of IFR ceilings just after
sunrise...especially around Springfield.
Ceilings will then improve from mid-morning onward on Monday.
However, MVFR will remain likely through at least early afternoon.
Winds will remain out of the northwest generally below 10 knots.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
We have increased PoPs into the 30-40% range for the late evening
and overnight period generally along and just north of the I-44
corridor. A mid-level frontogenetic zone (centered around 750 mb)
will be the primary focus for the shower activity. Amounts will be
very light...generally less than 0.05".
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
An upper level ridge will build east across the plains during the
middle of the week then over the region late in the week into
early next weekend. This will allow a warming trend to occur as
highs return to the lower 70s on Wednesday, with temperatures
warming into the upper 70s to the lower 80s by Saturday.
An upper level low will then track east across the southwestern
U.S then into the plains late this weekend into early next week.
As this system approaches from the west, thunderstorm chances
will return to the area late next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
A weak upper level storm system will produce a few light rain
showers across southern Missouri overnight. Ceilings will also
lower into the MVFR category by late tonight. There is still a
signal for a brief period of IFR ceilings just after
sunrise...especially around Springfield.
Ceilings will then improve from mid-morning onward on Monday.
However, MVFR will remain likely through at least early afternoon.
Winds will remain out of the northwest generally below 10 knots.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1124 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Clouds will continue to move southeast and will overspread the area
by mid evening as upper trough back over eastern Nebraska drops
southeast into Missouri and Illinois. Isolated afternoon showers
and thunderstorms should diminish by early this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Some isolated showers may begin to develop
toward morning underneath the upper trough over central and
northeast Missouri. Lows tonight will fall into the middle 40s to
around 50s.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
(Monday through Wednesday)
GFS/ECMWF are in relatively good agreement that upper trough will
move across the area tomorrow with relatively deep layer moisture.
Will carry chance PoPs for much of the area for this reason. Drier
air will begin to move into the area by Monday night, so will go
with mainly dry conditions. A second trough moves across the area
on Tuesday which begins the switchover in the upper pattern to
northwesterly flow. GFS/ECMWF are still showing a third upper
trough moving across the Great Lakes and the Midwest on Wednesday
that will bring an attendant cold front across Missouri and Illinois.
Models indicate that best low level moisture and forcing will
still limit rain chances to the eastern part of the CWA.
Monday still looks quite cool with clouds, showers, and cold air
advection. Tuesday will be slightly warmer with less clouds and
winds turning out of the west. Wednesday will see near steady
temperatures during the afternoon behind the front.
(Thursday through Sunday)
CONUS will be in highly amplified upper flow late week into next
weekend because of an omega block that will set up over North
America. It still looks like we will be dry through at least
Saturday as we will lie under northwesterly flow aloft and a large
surface high will be moving across Missouri and Illinois. By next
weekend, the GFS and ECMWF show the upper ridge moving over us and
the low level flow becoming southwesterly across the Midwest. This
may allow for some return of Gulf moisture into our area by late in
the weekend. Have added a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday as both
the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a frontal boundary moving back into
the area. This will also cause temperatures to climb from below
normal on Thursday with 850mb temperatures around 5C to above normal
temperatures over the weekend with southwesterly surface flow and
850mb temperatures around 15C.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Surface low over southern IN will continue moving eastward
late tonight. Surface ridging extended from the Plains into
northwestern MO. MVFR cigs over northern portions of MO and IL
which were over UIN and have just moved into COU should continue
to slowly advect south-southeastward into the St Louis metro area
around 06-07Z Monday. These cigs will drop into the IFR catagory
by early Monday morning. There will also be light fog late
tonight and early Monday morning. The cloud ceiling will gradually
rise into the MVFR catagory late Monday morning, and possibly into
the VFR catagory by late Monday afternoon or early Monday evening.
A narrow band of light showers moving into southwest MO may move
into COU and the St Louis metro area early Monday morning. An
upper level disturbance will also bring widely scattered showers
to the area on Monday, especially during the afternoon. A
northwesterly surface wind will continue through the period.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs will move southeastward into STL
around 06Z Monday. The ceiling will drop into the IFR catagory
by early morning with light fog developing. The fog will
dissipate by late morning along with the cigs rising into the MVFR
catagory. The ceiling may rise into the VFR catagory by late
Monday afternoon or early Monday evening. There may be a few
showers on Monday. Nwly surface wind will continue through the
period, becoming light Monday evening.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
646 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 219 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
A little wet and cloudy along the Iowa border with comparatively
nice conditions farther south across east central Kansas into
central Missouri has been the prevailing pattern for today. However,
the upper level shortwave trough is sliding northeast out of Iowa
this afternoon has induced enough of a return flow on the backside
that low clouds and a few showers are now moving through northern
Missouri. Areas south of the Missouri River where able to bound in
the 60s, but cloud cover and northerly winds farther north have kept
conditions cooler and damper.
Rest of the afternoon through Monday...cool, cloud, and likely
damp,conditions will prevail. While the shortwave in Iowa is moving
away this afternoon, a follow on shortwave trough is expected to
quickly exit the Desert Southwest late tonight, ejecting along a
slightly more southern track than the leading shortwave moving
through Iowa. Ultimately, this should keep the lower clouds and
potential for scattered showers persisting across the region
overnight and through the day Monday as a result. Have tossed in
chance POPs for late Monday morning and the afternoon hours as the
shortwave trough ejects into and through the Southern and Central
Plains. This could make for a soupy day, with low clouds, drizzle
and scattered showers dominating. However, with the exiting of the
secondary shortwave that night, warmer temperatures and less cloudy
skies will prevail in the days afterwards.
Tuesday on into the next weekend...will be dominated by dry weather
and nice temperatures. With the secondary shortwave exiting the
region Monday night into Tuesday the region will quickly get
dominated by a large amplitude ridge sandwiched between two large
cutoff circulations; one over the east coast with the other over the
Great Basin. Temperatures under the ridge will warm into the 70s
with lows in the 50s. Otherwise, given the pattern set up later in
the work week, expect that sometime late in the weekend --but more
likely early next work week-- the Great Basin trough will start
ejecting through the Plains and likely result in our next widespread
chance for storms in the region.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
Should see MVFR stratus through most of the forecast period, with
some degradation toward IFR in a few hours. Expect a gradual
improvement through the morning hours on Monday, with VFR status
prevailing by the afternoon hours.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Leighton
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
639 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
...Update to Public and Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
We have increased PoPs into the 30-40% range for the late evening
and overnight period generally along and just north of the I-44
corridor. A mid-level frontogenetic zone (centered around 750 mb)
will be the primary focus for the shower activity. Amounts will be
very light...generally less than 0.05".
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
An upper level ridge will build east across the plains during the
middle of the week then over the region late in the week into
early next weekend. This will allow a warming trend to occur as
highs return to the lower 70s on Wednesday, with temperatures
warming into the upper 70s to the lower 80s by Saturday.
An upper level low will then track east across the southwestern
U.S then into the plains late this weekend into early next week.
As this system approaches from the west, thunderstorm chances
will return to the area late next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
A weak upper level storm system will bring lowering ceilings and a
few showers to the region overnight. Confidence is high that MVFR
ceilings will develop overnight with ceilings approaching IFR by
sunrise.
Confidence was then high enough to include prevailing IFR around
Springfield for a few hours. Confidence was slightly lower at
Joplin, so we include a mention of IFR in a TEMPO group. At this
point, confidence was too low at Branson to insert an IFR mention.
Ceilings will then slowly improve later Monday morning although
MVFR may hang on for much of the day.
Winds through Monday will remain out of the northwest generally
below 9 knots.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
559 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Clouds will continue to move southeast and will overspread the area
by mid evening as upper trough back over eastern Nebraska drops
southeast into Missouri and Illinois. Isolated afternoon showers
and thunderstorms should diminish by early this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Some isolated showers may begin to develop
toward morning underneath the upper trough over central and
northeast Missouri. Lows tonight will fall into the middle 40s to
around 50s.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
(Monday through Wednesday)
GFS/ECMWF are in relatively good agreement that upper trough will
move across the area tomorrow with relatively deep layer moisture.
Will carry chance PoPs for much of the area for this reason. Drier
air will begin to move into the area by Monday night, so will go
with mainly dry conditions. A second trough moves across the area
on Tuesday which begins the switchover in the upper pattern to
northwesterly flow. GFS/ECMWF are still showing a third upper
trough moving across the Great Lakes and the Midwest on Wednesday
that will bring an attendant cold front across Missouri and Illinois.
Models indicate that best low level moisture and forcing will
still limit rain chances to the eastern part of the CWA.
Monday still looks quite cool with clouds, showers, and cold air
advection. Tuesday will be slightly warmer with less clouds and
winds turning out of the west. Wednesday will see near steady
temperatures during the afternoon behind the front.
(Thursday through Sunday)
CONUS will be in highly amplified upper flow late week into next
weekend because of an omega block that will set up over North
America. It still looks like we will be dry through at least
Saturday as we will lie under northwesterly flow aloft and a large
surface high will be moving across Missouri and Illinois. By next
weekend, the GFS and ECMWF show the upper ridge moving over us and
the low level flow becoming southwesterly across the Midwest. This
may allow for some return of Gulf moisture into our area by late in
the weekend. Have added a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday as both
the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a frontal boundary moving back into
the area. This will also cause temperatures to climb from below
normal on Thursday with 850mb temperatures around 5C to above normal
temperatures over the weekend with southwesterly surface flow and
850mb temperatures around 15C.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 455 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Surface low over southeast IL will move eastward tonight. Any
showers/storms should be east of the taf sites this evening. MVFR
cigs in UIN should drop back down into the IFR catagory later this
evening. The low level cloud cover over northern MO will advect
south-southeastward into COU and the St Louis metro area later
this evening and overnight, leading to MVFR cigs initially, then
dropping into the IFR catagory late tonight/early Monday morning.
There will also be light fog late tonight and early Monday
morning. The cloud ceiling will gradually rise into the MVFR
catagory late Monday morning, and possibly into the VFR catagory
by late Monday afternoon. An upper level disturbance will bring
widely scattered showers to the area on Monday. W-nwly surface
wind will become more n-nwly on Monday.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs will move into STL late this
evening, then drop into the IFR catagory late tonight along with
light fog. The fog will dissipate by late morning along with the
cigs rising into the MVFR catagory. The ceiling may rise into the
VFR catagory by late Monday afternoon or early Monday evening.
There may be a few showers on Monday. Nwly surface wind will
continue through the period, weakening early this evening.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
559 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Clouds will continue to move southeast and will overspread the area
by mid evening as upper trough back over eastern Nebraska drops
southeast into Missouri and Illinois. Isolated afternoon showers
and thunderstorms should diminish by early this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Some isolated showers may begin to develop
toward morning underneath the upper trough over central and
northeast Missouri. Lows tonight will fall into the middle 40s to
around 50s.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
(Monday through Wednesday)
GFS/ECMWF are in relatively good agreement that upper trough will
move across the area tomorrow with relatively deep layer moisture.
Will carry chance PoPs for much of the area for this reason. Drier
air will begin to move into the area by Monday night, so will go
with mainly dry conditions. A second trough moves across the area
on Tuesday which begins the switchover in the upper pattern to
northwesterly flow. GFS/ECMWF are still showing a third upper
trough moving across the Great Lakes and the Midwest on Wednesday
that will bring an attendant cold front across Missouri and Illinois.
Models indicate that best low level moisture and forcing will
still limit rain chances to the eastern part of the CWA.
Monday still looks quite cool with clouds, showers, and cold air
advection. Tuesday will be slightly warmer with less clouds and
winds turning out of the west. Wednesday will see near steady
temperatures during the afternoon behind the front.
(Thursday through Sunday)
CONUS will be in highly amplified upper flow late week into next
weekend because of an omega block that will set up over North
America. It still looks like we will be dry through at least
Saturday as we will lie under northwesterly flow aloft and a large
surface high will be moving across Missouri and Illinois. By next
weekend, the GFS and ECMWF show the upper ridge moving over us and
the low level flow becoming southwesterly across the Midwest. This
may allow for some return of Gulf moisture into our area by late in
the weekend. Have added a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday as both
the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a frontal boundary moving back into
the area. This will also cause temperatures to climb from below
normal on Thursday with 850mb temperatures around 5C to above normal
temperatures over the weekend with southwesterly surface flow and
850mb temperatures around 15C.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 455 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Surface low over southeast IL will move eastward tonight. Any
showers/storms should be east of the taf sites this evening. MVFR
cigs in UIN should drop back down into the IFR catagory later this
evening. The low level cloud cover over northern MO will advect
south-southeastward into COU and the St Louis metro area later
this evening and overnight, leading to MVFR cigs initially, then
dropping into the IFR catagory late tonight/early Monday morning.
There will also be light fog late tonight and early Monday
morning. The cloud ceiling will gradually rise into the MVFR
catagory late Monday morning, and possibly into the VFR catagory
by late Monday afternoon. An upper level disturbance will bring
widely scattered showers to the area on Monday. W-nwly surface
wind will become more n-nwly on Monday.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs will move into STL late this
evening, then drop into the IFR catagory late tonight along with
light fog. The fog will dissipate by late morning along with the
cigs rising into the MVFR catagory. The ceiling may rise into the
VFR catagory by late Monday afternoon or early Monday evening.
There may be a few showers on Monday. Nwly surface wind will
continue through the period, weakening early this evening.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
325 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Clouds will continue to move southeast and will overspread the area
by mid evening as upper trough back over eastern Nebraska drops
southeast into Missouri and Illinois. Isolated afternoon showers
and thunderstorms should diminish by early this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Some isolated showers may begin to develop
toward morning underneath the upper trough over central and
northeast Missouri. Lows tonight will fall into the middle 40s to
around 50s.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
(Monday through Wednesday)
GFS/ECMWF are in relatively good agreement that upper trough will
move across the area tomorrow with relatively deep layer moisture.
Will carry chance PoPs for much of the area for this reason. Drier
air will begin to move into the area by Monday night, so will go
with mainly dry conditions. A second trough moves across the area
on Tuesday which begins the switchover in the upper pattern to
northwesterly flow. GFS/ECMWF are still showing a third upper
trough moving across the Great Lakes and the Midwest on Wednesday
that will bring an attendant cold front across Missouri and Illinois.
Models indicate that best low level moisture and forcing will
still limit rain chances to the eastern part of the CWA.
Monday still looks quite cool with clouds, showers, and cold air
advection. Tuesday will be slightly warmer with less clouds and
winds turning out of the west. Wednesday will see near steady
temperatures during the afternoon behind the front.
(Thursday through Sunday)
CONUS will be in highly amplified upper flow late week into next
weekend because of an omega block that will set up over North
America. It still looks like we will be dry through at least
Saturday as we will lie under northwesterly flow aloft and a large
surface high will be moving across Missouri and Illinois. By next
weekend, the GFS and ECMWF show the upper ridge moving over us and
the low level flow becoming southwesterly across the Midwest. This
may allow for some return of Gulf moisture into our area by late in
the weekend. Have added a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday as both
the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a frontal boundary moving back into
the area. This will also cause temperatures to climb from below
normal on Thursday with 850mb temperatures around 5C to above normal
temperatures over the weekend with southwesterly surface flow and
850mb temperatures around 15C.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Specifics for KCOU: KCOU is far enough west that VFR conditions
should prevail for the first 0-6 hours of the valid TAF pd.
Thereafter, MVFR cigs are expected for most of the night. Ceilings
may fall to IFR late tonight, but confidence was too low to
include in the TAF attm.
Specifics for KUIN: IFR conditions are expected for at least the
next few hours. Minor improvement is possible during the late
afternoon, but cigs should fall back to IFR this evening.
Scattered rain showers are possible after 20z.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: IFR and MVFR cigs extended farther
south late this morning than the models had previously predicted,
and IFR/MVFR cigs are expected to remain in place through the
afternoon based on upstream satellite imagery and METARs. Cigs
are expected to fall to IFR again tonight, likely after 06z based
on RAP and local WRF soundings in BUFKIT. Light fog is also
possible overnight. Rain showers are possible after 12z, but the
St. Louis metro area should be on the northern fringe of the rain
shield.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
932 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF DEVILS LAKE AT 14Z TRACKING
SOUTH WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF MINOT.
UPPER LOW CREATING INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND HAVE HAD
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES SO FAR.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TEH MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. CLEARING NORTH. CURRENT
FORECAST TRACKING WILL AND JUST UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING. AS WE HEAT UP...THE CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN
THUS WENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES SO ADJUSTED POPS AND CLOUD COVER ACCORDINGLY THERE. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING SO EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE DESTABILIZE FURTHER...THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE RAP IS INDICATING POSSIBLE CONVECTION AS FAR
NORTH AS WELLS COUNTY AND AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES...SO EXTENDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE MORE DETAILED
DISCUSSION OF NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
STILL HOLDS...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OF THE POTENTIAL OF
STORMS NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE LOW TOP CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DETAILS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATING
AND SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING. A 100KT
JET STREAK WAS SEEN DIVING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER
LOW. CANADIAN/LOCAL MINOT RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. MINOT AIR FORCE BASE
IS THE ONLY REPORTING SURFACE STATION AT THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
RAIN. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE
THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THINGS POTENTIALLY GET MORE INTERESTING THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT (-24C) ASSOCIATED WITH A H7-H5 CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DECENT LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN NOON CDT-6PM CDT
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE 200-300 J/KG AND STEEP (1000-85MB) LAPSE
RATES OF 8.5C/KM...ALONG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55KT-65KT.
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT CAPE/UPWARD MOMENTUM IS LACKING DUE TO
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ASCENT WILL BE FULFILLED BY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED 100KT JET STREAK...WHICH
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS EXPECTING LOW TOP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL HEIGHTS PER BISMARCK BUFKIT SOUNDING OF AROUND 18KFT. WITH
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT/STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND LARGE
SCALE ASCENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE VORTICITY STRETCHING INTO
THE VERTICAL COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR COMPOSITE INDICATE THE FIRST SURGE OF
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SLIDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING...THEN POCKETS OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITYS DEVELOP AGAIN
BETWEEN 17Z AND 00Z TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CONVECTION WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE. LATER MONDAY NIGHT...A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HEAD SOUTH AND REACH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
FOR TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BRIEF/MINOR COOLING FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL (700MB-
500MB) RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TAKE CONTROL AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL DEFLECT ANY SHORTWAVES RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE TO
REMAIN IN SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AND PEAKING
BETWEEN +16C TO +20C THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TAKING THESE TEMPERATURES DOWN
DRY ADIABATICALLY TO THE SURFACE TRANSLATES INTO HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A CLOSED
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...EJECTS
NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPIATION SHIELD IS FORECAST INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
-SHRA ARE FORECAST AT KBIS BETWEEN 12Z-15Z AND KJMS 14Z-17Z MONDAY
WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 8000FT. A VCTS WAS MENTIONED AT AT KBIS FROM
17Z MONDAY THROUGH 22Z MONDAY. NOT MENTION OF VCTS ELSE. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION AT KDIK AND KJMS. EXPECT A
CLEAR SKY AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. WINDS AROUND 10KT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDIK AND KISN WHERE GUSTS TO 20KT CAN BE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MID EVENING
AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
FOR TUESDAY...JUST A HEADS UP THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
20 AND 25 PERCENT AND WILL COINCIDE WITH THESE WINDS OVER A SMALL
PORTION OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE TIME DURATION OF
THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS WITH 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 20 PERCENT APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
WITH INSUFFICIENT DURATION AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE...WOULD NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
701 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING. AS WE HEAT UP...THE CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN
THUS WENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES SO ADJUSTED POPS AND CLOUD COVER ACCORDINGLY THERE. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING SO EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE DESTABILIZE FURTHER...THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE RAP IS INDICATING POSSIBLE CONVECTION AS FAR
NORTH AS WELLS COUNTY AND AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES...SO EXTENDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE MORE DETAILED
DISCUSSION OF NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
STILL HOLDS...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OF THE POTENTIAL OF
STORMS NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE LOW TOP CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DETAILS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATING
AND SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING. A 100KT
JET STREAK WAS SEEN DIVING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER
LOW. CANADIAN/LOCAL MINOT RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. MINOT AIR FORCE BASE
IS THE ONLY REPORTING SURFACE STATION AT THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
RAIN. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE
THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THINGS POTENTIALLY GET MORE INTERESTING THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT (-24C) ASSOCIATED WITH A H7-H5 CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DECENT LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN NOON CDT-6PM CDT
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE 200-300 J/KG AND STEEP (1000-85MB) LAPSE
RATES OF 8.5C/KM...ALONG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55KT-65KT.
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT CAPE/UPWARD MOMENTUM IS LACKING DUE TO
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ASCENT WILL BE FULFILLED BY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED 100KT JET STREAK...WHICH
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS EXPECTING LOW TOP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL HEIGHTS PER BISMARCK BUFKIT SOUNDING OF AROUND 18KFT. WITH
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT/STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND LARGE
SCALE ASCENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE VORTICITY STRETCHING INTO
THE VERTICAL COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR COMPOSITE INDICATE THE FIRST SURGE OF
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SLIDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING...THEN POCKETS OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITYS DEVELOP AGAIN
BETWEEN 17Z AND 00Z TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CONVECTION WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE. LATER MONDAY NIGHT...A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HEAD SOUTH AND REACH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
FOR TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BRIEF/MINOR COOLING FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL (700MB-
500MB) RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TAKE CONTROL AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL DEFLECT ANY SHORTWAVES RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE TO
REMAIN IN SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AND PEAKING
BETWEEN +16C TO +20C THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TAKING THESE TEMPERATURES DOWN
DRY ADIABATICALLY TO THE SURFACE TRANSLATES INTO HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A CLOSED
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...EJECTS
NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPIATION SHIELD IS FORECAST INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
-SHRA ARE FORECAST AT KBIS BETWEEN 12Z-15Z AND KJMS 14Z-17Z MONDAY
WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 8000FT. A VCTS WAS MENTIONED AT AT KBIS FROM
17Z MONDAY THROUGH 22Z MONDAY. NOT MENTION OF VCTS ELSE. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION AT KDIK AND KJMS. EXPECT A
CLEAR SKY AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. WINDS AROUND 10KT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDIK AND KISN WHERE GUSTS TO 20KT CAN BE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MID EVENING
AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
FOR TUESDAY...JUST A HEADS UP THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
20 AND 25 PERCENT AND WILL COINCIDE WITH THESE WINDS OVER A SMALL
PORTION OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE TIME DURATION OF
THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS WITH 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 20 PERCENT APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
WITH INSUFFICIENT DURATION AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE...WOULD NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1133 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD
FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF
WV...OUR NE KY ZONES...AND OUR SE OHIO ZONES BORDERING THE OHIO
RIVER. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE. SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.
ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY.
USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
15Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AND AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA.
FRONT WILL REACH A PKB-LEX LINE AROUND 00Z...THEN ONLY SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE RIDES UP THE FRONT. BY 06Z FRONT WILL BE ON A CKB-HTS
LINE...AND ON A EKN-BKW LINE BY 12Z TUESDAY.
THRU 00Z...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...BUT IFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING IFR CEILINGS
WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS....ESPECIALLY SE OHIO.
AFTER 00Z...WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS FROM THE ONGOING SHOWERS
AND STORMS...IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. BY
AROUND 03Z...EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS TO SEE GENERALLY IFR
CONDITIONS.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY SW 6 TO 12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
MAINLY RIDGETOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES UP THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY FOR
THOSE AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. ALSO...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE TIMING AND FORMATION OF IFR CEILINGS AND FOG TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H M H H M M M M M M M
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR CEILINGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND 15Z MOST TERMINALS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-
085>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MPK
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JMV/MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1004 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD
FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF
WV...OUR NE KY ZONES...AND OUR SE OHIO ZONES BORDERING THE OHIO
RIVER. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE. SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.
ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY.
USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW STRATUS WILL CAUSE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AS A FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION...AND
CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS FOG
MAY DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. IF THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH THAN
EXPECTED...THEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ALSO...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND FORMATION OF FOG TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H M H H M M M M
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-
085>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MPK
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
729 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED...UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED
THUNDER.
ORIGINAL...SHOWERS CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TODAY WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA DRYING OUT BEFORE SUNRISE. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
BEING FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BASED ON HRRR TIMING. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A 300MB JET STREAK ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE EXPANDS
JUST TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND BY 00Z BEGINS TO
ENCROACH INTO THE AREA. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE DAY. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS EAST EARLY AND CHANCE POPS
WEST...THEN TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS. LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH
SOME BREAKS. HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT MODELS TAKE SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
HOWEVER WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS TUESDAY HOWEVER TUESDAY NIGHT
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BOOST TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS EAST
HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS WEST AND LIKELY POPS EAST WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EARLY. THURSDAY AN UPPER LOW ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA
OUT OF THE NORTH. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN. TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEGA UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND TO GET THE LOCAL AREA BACK
INTO SPRING LIKE WEATHER. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES TO EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SO WILL GO AHEAD AND CUT BACK ON THE POPS OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AND BRING
WARMER AIR BACK TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS SINCE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS EXPECTED. STILL
EXPECTING LOW CEILINGS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND GRADUALLY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. SOME IFR
TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY
LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE
ON WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONGER WINDS TO RAISE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
653 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TODAY. UNSETTLED INTO
TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE. SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.
ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY.
USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW STRATUS WILL CAUSE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AS A FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION...AND
CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS FOG
MAY DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. IF THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH THAN
EXPECTED...THEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ALSO...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND FORMATION OF FOG TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M M M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H H M M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M M H H M M
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
623 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED...UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED
THUNDER.
ORIGINAL...SHOWERS CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TODAY WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA DRYING OUT BEFORE SUNRISE. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
BEING FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BASED ON HRRR TIMING. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A 300MB JET STREAK ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE EXPANDS
JUST TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND BY 00Z BEGINS TO
ENCROACH INTO THE AREA. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE DAY. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS EAST EARLY AND CHANCE POPS
WEST...THEN TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS. LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH
SOME BREAKS. HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT MODELS TAKE SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
HOWEVER WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS TUESDAY HOWEVER TUESDAY NIGHT
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BOOST TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS EAST
HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS WEST AND LIKELY POPS EAST WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EARLY. THURSDAY AN UPPER LOW ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA
OUT OF THE NORTH. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN. TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEGA UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND TO GET THE LOCAL AREA BACK
INTO SPRING LIKE WEATHER. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES TO EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SO WILL GO AHEAD AND CUT BACK ON THE POPS OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AND BRING
WARMER AIR BACK TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL FORCE RAIN TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN AT THIS TIME AND THAT SHOULD MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. STILL EXPECTING LOW CEILINGS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY AS RAIN PULLS OUT TO THE EAST. SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AN ISSUE TODAY AS WELL BUT WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN
THE RAIN DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE
ON WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONGER WINDS TO RAISE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED RAIN
CHANCES IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE...THINK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. THUS...INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. THIS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER DID NOT ALTER
AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THEY SEEMED TO BE REASONABLE.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARILY
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH 21-00Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MOST TERMINALS. RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...
ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO KEEP BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS. MOST IF NOT ALL SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF RED RIVER BUT WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW-MID CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...OVERALL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST FORECAST DATA ON
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. RIGHT NOW ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
TEMPS WARM ENOUGH AND INCREASES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SUFFICIENTLY
TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.
UPPER LOW EXITING MANITOBA AND ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS PROGD TO
SINK SOUTHWARD AND TRAVERSE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTENING WE WILL KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS WESTERN
THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL PROBABLY BE
HARD TO GET ANY THUNDER...BUT WITH FAIRLY COLD CORE OF
SYSTEM...ENOUGH GRAUPEL GROWTH MAY BE REALIZED FOR A FEW
DISCHARGES SO WILL MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.
WARMING TREND EXPECTED LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ALONG WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. WITH CENTRAL U.S. OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE WEEK...SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF WEEKEND SYSTEM
WITH PROLONGED COASTAL REGION LOWER LEVEL RIDGING. GREATER
MOISTURE RETURN PROGD LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
INCREASE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAIN
EVENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 64 44 71 49 / 0 0 10 0
HOBART OK 66 42 70 48 / 0 0 30 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 46 72 50 / 0 0 10 20
GAGE OK 65 40 70 44 / 0 0 20 0
PONCA CITY OK 63 41 72 48 / 0 0 10 0
DURANT OK 67 47 72 52 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1051 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER PA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
DOWN TO SOUTHEAST PA AND MD BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP OVER SOUTHERN PA...AND SOME COULD MAKE
GUSTY WINDS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY SOME COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIN LINE OF CLOUDS NOW VISIBLE PULLING OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
CLOUD SHIELD IS MOST LIKELY THE FRONT AS WIND SHIFT EVIDENT ON
SURFACE ANALYSIS. SOME BREAKS/PARTIAL CLEARING TO THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH OF THAT LINE - IN THE LAURELS AND UP INTO CENTRE COUNTY.
WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE CLOSE TO 50KTS AT 7-8KFT. SO
SEVERE OR AT LEAST GUSTY WINDS STILL POSSIBLE IN ANYTHING THAT CAN
GROW UP. TROUBLE WILL BE THE INITIAL CAP/INVERSION AT THAT SAME
LEVEL. BUT WITH SOME SUN...WE SHOULD PUSH PAST IT. LEAVING POPS IN
THE SCT RANGE DUE TO EXPECTED COVERAGE.
PREV...
RAIN MOVING OUT QUICKLY AND PARTIAL CLEARING IN SW IS ALREADY
WORKING TO HAPPY VALLEY. WILL TWEAK POPS AND SKY A BIT FOR THESE
DEVELOPMENTS.
PREV...
SFC WARM FRONT DEPICTED RATHER NICELY BY LATEST RAP LLVL /SFC-925
MB/ ANALYSIS OF LIFTED INDICES. THE FRONT SNAKES IT WAY FROM NEAR
KBTP...TO A WEAK 1010 MB SFC LOW NEAR KDUJ...THEN EXTENDS SOUTH TO
KIDI AND ON INTO MD PANHANDLE. WEAKER ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA EXTENDED FURTHER NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
AT 10Z...WHERE 850 MB BASED LI/S WERE ABOUT -1 TO -2C.
THE HIGHEST POPS /90-100 PERCENT/ WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA...BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPR LEVEL JET
AND COLLOCATED WITH THE NOSE OF 1-2 SIGMA SOUTHERLY LLJ.
OVER THE SERN HALF OF PENN...POPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50-70
PERCENT RANGE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX RACES NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE CWA WAS LEADING TO SOME 1/2-1SM FOG OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN AND WRNPENN...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST...TO THE MID 50S OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
INITIAL BATCH OF TSRA /IN THE FORM OF MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ
VALLEY/ WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NE OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE A FEW TO SVRL HOUR LULL IN PRECIP...PRIOR TO
ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF TSRA FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND ALONG A NEARLY NORTH/SOUTH LEE TROUGH. MODELS
PAINT MDT INSTABILITY AND MDTLY STRONG LLVL SHEAR ACROSS THE SCENT
MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 18-23Z. RAP/NAM EHIS BRIEFLY
POKE UP INTO THE 1-1.5 M2/S2 RANGE TO THE SE OF I-81 IN THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 20-23Z...BETWEEN THE SFC LEE TROUGH AND QUASI-
STNRY/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 15 TO 25
SM TO THE EAST OF THE LOWER SUSQ MAINSTEM. PRIOR TO ANY UPSCALE
GROWTH IN INDIVIDUAL TSRA TO A BKN LINE /QLCS/...SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD CONTAIN WEAK TO MDTLY STRONG MESOS. ANY THREAT FOR A
WEAK ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD BE EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER...INVOF OF
BETTER LLVL SHEAR AND LOWER LCL HEIGHTS NEAR THE STNRY FRONT.
ANY PRECIP ACROSS THE NW ZONES LATER TODAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
ISOLATED -SHRA AS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
KBFD AREA BETWEEN 16-18Z.
MAX TEMPS /USING A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND/ RANGE FORM THE L-M 50S
IN THE NW...TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE SOME PULSES OF WEAK-MDT UVVEL INVOF OF THE
SLOWING CFRONT ACROSS SERN PENN WILL BRING THE CHC FOR A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WITH HIGHLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
THE CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE
TUESDAY AS A FEW WEAK SFC WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE RIPPLE NE
ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED CFRONT JUST TO OUR SE WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NNW INTO THE REGION. WILL STRONGLY CONSIDER
BOOSTING POPS UP LATE TONIGHT AND TUES MORNING WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR WHERE
LATEST SREF/GEFS SHOW 90+ PERCENT PROBS FOR 0.10 OF AN INCH OF
RAINFL...WITH 60-80 PROBS FOR 0.25 INCH OF QPF.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE COOL UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE U40S AND MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE STATE IN THE MORNING.
THE PATTERN TURNS QUITE UNSETTLED FOR LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A DEEP...SLOW-MOVING CLOSED LOW DROPS SE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...BEFORE BECOMING SITUATED FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST 00Z/06Z OPER/ENS
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN EVOLUTION/LOCATION OF THIS UPPER
LOW COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW MODEL RUNS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A STEADY FEED/PLUME OF MOISTURE
WILL STREAM NWWD AND SPIRAL AROUND THIS UPPER LOW...WITH THE
CURRENT TARGET AREA FOR THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOCATED
SOMEWHERE ACRS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN...EAST TO THE SUSQ VALLEY.
PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THE FINER DETAILS FOR THIS MDTLY HEAVY
PRECIP EVENT.
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER
FRIDAY AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RIDGE WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST. STILL KEPT MENTION OF A SHOWER SE ON SAT. POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER WAVE TO BRING CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY...BUT MODEL
CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THIS TIME.
SO OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER READING
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN A WARMING TREND. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE
TO BE HAD THIS WEEK WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST AND NORTHWARD WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT
JST AND AOO...WITH THE EASTERN TAF SITES STILL MVFR AND LOWER.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH MAINLY VFR BY 16Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
FOLLOWING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THERE COULD BE LINGERING MVFR
AT BFD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA. THIS COULD AFFECT MDT/LNS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY SE.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
853 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
COMBINE WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY SOME COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKE TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN MOVING OUT QUICKLY AND PARTIAL CLEARING IN SW IS ALREADY
WORKING TO HAPPY VALLEY. WILL TWEAK POPS AND SKY A BIT FOR THESE
DEVELOPMENTS.
PREV...
SFC WARM FRONT DEPICTED RATHER NICELY BY LATEST RAP LLVL /SFC-925
MB/ ANALYSIS OF LIFTED INDICES. THE FRONT SNAKES IT WAY FROM NEAR
KBTP...TO A WEAK 1010 MB SFC LOW NEAR KDUJ...THEN EXTENDS SOUTH TO
KIDI AND ON INTO MD PANHANDLE. WEAKER ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA EXTENDED FURTHER NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
AT 10Z...WHERE 850 MB BASED LI/S WERE ABOUT -1 TO -2C.
THE HIGHEST POPS /90-100 PERCENT/ WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA...BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPR LEVEL JET
AND COLLOCATED WITH THE NOSE OF 1-2 SIGMA SOUTHERLY LLJ.
OVER THE SERN HALF OF PENN...POPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50-70
PERCENT RANGE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX RACES NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE CWA WAS LEADING TO SOME 1/2-1SM FOG OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN AND WRNPENN...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST...TO THE MID 50S OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
INITIAL BATCH OF TSRA /IN THE FORM OF MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ
VALLEY/ WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NE OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE A FEW TO SVRL HOUR LULL IN PRECIP...PRIOR TO
ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF TSRA FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND ALONG A NEARLY NORTH/SOUTH LEE TROUGH. MODELS
PAINT MDT INSTABILITY AND MDTLY STRONG LLVL SHEAR ACROSS THE SCENT
MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 18-23Z. RAP/NAM EHIS BRIEFLY
POKE UP INTO THE 1-1.5 M2/S2 RANGE TO THE SE OF I-81 IN THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 20-23Z...BETWEEN THE SFC LEE TROUGH AND QUASI-
STNRY/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 15 TO 25
SM TO THE EAST OF THE LOWER SUSQ MAINSTEM. PRIOR TO ANY UPSCALE
GROWTH IN INDIVIDUAL TSRA TO A BKN LINE /QLCS/...SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD CONTAIN WEAK TO MDTLY STRONG MESOS. ANY THREAT FOR A
WEAK ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD BE EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER...INVOF OF
BETTER LLVL SHEAR AND LOWER LCL HEIGHTS NEAR THE STNRY FRONT.
ANY PRECIP ACROSS THE NW ZONES LATER TODAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
ISOLATED -SHRA AS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
KBFD AREA BETWEEN 16-18Z.
MAX TEMPS /USING A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND/ RANGE FORM THE L-M 50S
IN THE NW...TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE SOME PULSES OF WEAK-MDT UVVEL INVOF OF THE
SLOWING CFRONT ACROSS SERN PENN WILL BRING THE CHC FOR A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WITH HIGHLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
THE CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE
TUESDAY AS A FEW WEAK SFC WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE RIPPLE NE
ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED CFRONT JUST TO OUR SE WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NNW INTO THE REGION. WILL STRONGLY CONSIDER
BOOSTING POPS UP LATE TONIGHT AND TUES MORNING WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR WHERE
LATEST SREF/GEFS SHOW 90+ PERCENT PROBS FOR 0.10 OF AN INCH OF
RAINFL...WITH 60-80 PROBS FOR 0.25 INCH OF QPF.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE COOL UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE U40S AND MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE STATE IN THE MORNING.
THE PATTERN TURNS QUITE UNSETTLED FOR LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A DEEP...SLOW-MOVING CLOSED LOW DROPS SE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...BEFORE BECOMING SITUATED FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST 00Z/06Z OPER/ENS
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN EVOLUTION/LOCATION OF THIS UPPER
LOW COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW MODEL RUNS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A STEADY FEED/PLUME OF MOISTURE
WILL STREAM NWWD AND SPIRAL AROUND THIS UPPER LOW...WITH THE
CURRENT TARGET AREA FOR THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOCATED
SOMEWHERE ACRS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN...EAST TO THE SUSQ VALLEY.
PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THE FINER DETAILS FOR THIS MDTLY HEAVY
PRECIP EVENT.
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER
FRIDAY AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RIDGE WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST. STILL KEPT MENTION OF A SHOWER SE ON SAT. POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER WAVE TO BRING CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY...BUT MODEL
CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THIS TIME.
SO OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER READING
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN A WARMING TREND. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE
TO BE HAD THIS WEEK WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST AND NORTHWARD WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT
JST AND AOO...WITH THE EASTERN TAF SITES STILL MVFR AND LOWER.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH MAINLY VFR BY 16Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
FOLLOWING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THERE COULD BE LINGERING MVFR
AT BFD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA. THIS COULD AFFECT MDT/LNS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY SE.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
758 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
COMBINE WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY SOME COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKE TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC WARM FRONT DEPICTED RATHER NICELY BY LATEST RAP LLVL /SFC-925
MB/ ANALYSIS OF LIFTED INDICES. THE FRONT SNAKES IT WAY FROM NEAR
KBTP...TO A WEAK 1010 MB SFC LOW NEAR KDUJ...THEN EXTENDS SOUTH TO
KIDI AND ON INTO MD PANHANDLE. WEAKER ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA EXTENDED FURTHER NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
AT 10Z...WHERE 850 MB BASED LI/S WERE ABOUT -1 TO -2C.
THE HIGHEST POPS /90-100 PERCENT/ WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA...BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPR LEVEL JET
AND COLLOCATED WITH THE NOSE OF 1-2 SIGMA SOUTHERLY LLJ.
OVER THE SERN HALF OF PENN...POPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50-70
PERCENT RANGE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX RACES NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE CWA WAS LEADING TO SOME 1/2-1SM FOG OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN AND WRNPENN...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST...TO THE MID 50S OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
INITIAL BATCH OF TSRA /IN THE FORM OF MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ
VALLEY/ WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NE OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE A FEW TO SVRL HOUR LULL IN PRECIP...PRIOR TO
ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF TSRA FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND ALONG A NEARLY NORTH/SOUTH LEE TROUGH. MODELS
PAINT MDT INSTABILITY AND MDTLY STRONG LLVL SHEAR ACROSS THE SCENT
MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 18-23Z. RAP/NAM EHIS BRIEFLY
POKE UP INTO THE 1-1.5 M2/S2 RANGE TO THE SE OF I-81 IN THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 20-23Z...BETWEEN THE SFC LEE TROUGH AND QUASI-
STNRY/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 15 TO 25
SM TO THE EAST OF THE LOWER SUSQ MAINSTEM. PRIOR TO ANY UPSCALE
GROWTH IN INDIVIDUAL TSRA TO A BKN LINE /QLCS/...SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD CONTAIN WEAK TO MDTLY STRONG MESOS. ANY THREAT FOR A
WEAK ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD BE EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER...INVOF OF
BETTER LLVL SHEAR AND LOWER LCL HEIGHTS NEAR THE STNRY FRONT.
ANY PRECIP ACROSS THE NW ZONES LATER TODAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
ISOLATED -SHRA AS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
KBFD AREA BETWEEN 16-18Z.
MAX TEMPS /USING A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND/ RANGE FORM THE L-M 50S
IN THE NW...TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE SOME PULSES OF WEAK-MDT UVVEL INVOF OF THE
SLOWING CFRONT ACROSS SERN PENN WILL BRING THE CHC FOR A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WITH HIGHLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
THE CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE
TUESDAY AS A FEW WEAK SFC WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE RIPPLE NE
ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED CFRONT JUST TO OUR SE WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NNW INTO THE REGION. WILL STRONGLY CONSIDER
BOOSTING POPS UP LATE TONIGHT AND TUES MORNING WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR WHERE
LATEST SREF/GEFS SHOW 90+ PERCENT PROBS FOR 0.10 OF AN INCH OF
RAINFL...WITH 60-80 PROBS FOR 0.25 INCH OF QPF.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE COOL UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE U40S AND MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE STATE IN THE MORNING.
THE PATTERN TURNS QUITE UNSETTLED FOR LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A DEEP...SLOW-MOVING CLOSED LOW DROPS SE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...BEFORE BECOMING SITUATED FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST 00Z/06Z OPER/ENS
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN EVOLUTION/LOCATION OF THIS UPPER
LOW COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW MODEL RUNS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A STEADY FEED/PLUME OF MOISTURE
WILL STREAM NWWD AND SPIRAL AROUND THIS UPPER LOW...WITH THE
CURRENT TARGET AREA FOR THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOCATED
SOMEWHERE ACRS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN...EAST TO THE SUSQ VALLEY.
PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THE FINER DETAILS FOR THIS MDTLY HEAVY
PRECIP EVENT.
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER
FRIDAY AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RIDGE WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST. STILL KEPT MENTION OF A SHOWER SE ON SAT. POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER WAVE TO BRING CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY...BUT MODEL
CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THIS TIME.
SO OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER READING
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN A WARMING TREND. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE
TO BE HAD THIS WEEK WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST AND NORTHWARD WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT
JST AND AOO...WITH THE EASTERN TAF SITES STILL MVFR AND LOWER.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH MAINLY VFR BY 16Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
FOLLOWING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THERE COULD BE LINGERING MVFR
AT BFD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA. THIS COULD AFFECT MDT/LNS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY SE.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
624 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
COMBINE WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY SOME COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKE TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC WARM FRONT DEPICTED RATHER NICELY BY LATEST RAP LLVL /SFC-925
MB/ ANALYSIS OF LIFTED INDICES. THE FRONT SNAKES IT WAY FROM NEAR
KBTP...TO A WEAK 1010 MB SFC LOW NEAR KDUJ...THEN EXTENDS SOUTH TO
KIDI AND ON INTO MD PANHANDLE. WEAKER ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA EXTENDED FURTHER NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
AT 10Z...WHERE 850 MB BASED LI/S WERE ABOUT -1 TO -2C.
THE HIGHEST POPS /90-100 PERCENT/ WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA...BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPR LEVEL JET
AND COLLOCATED WITH THE NOSE OF 1-2 SIGMA SOUTHERLY LLJ.
OVER THE SERN HALF OF PENN...POPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50-70
PERCENT RANGE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX RACES NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE CWA WAS LEADING TO SOME 1/2-1SM FOG OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN AND WRNPENN...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST...TO THE MID 50S OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
INITIAL BATCH OF TSRA /IN THE FORM OF MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ
VALLEY/ WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NE OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE A FEW TO SVRL HOUR LULL IN PRECIP...PRIOR TO
ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF TSRA FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND ALONG A NEARLY NORTH/SOUTH LEE TROUGH. MODELS
PAINT MDT INSTABILITY AND MDTLY STRONG LLVL SHEAR ACROSS THE SCENT
MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 18-23Z. RAP/NAM EHIS BRIEFLY
POKE UP INTO THE 1-1.5 M2/S2 RANGE TO THE SE OF I-81 IN THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 20-23Z...BETWEEN THE SFC LEE TROUGH AND QUASI-
STNRY/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 15 TO 25
SM TO THE EAST OF THE LOWER SUSQ MAINSTEM. PRIOR TO ANY UPSCALE
GROWTH IN INDIVIDUAL TSRA TO A BKN LINE /QLCS/...SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD CONTAIN WEAK TO MDTLY STRONG MESOS. ANY THREAT FOR A
WEAK ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD BE EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER...INVOF OF
BETTER LLVL SHEAR AND LOWER LCL HEIGHTS NEAR THE STNRY FRONT.
ANY PRECIP ACROSS THE NW ZONES LATER TODAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
ISOLATED -SHRA AS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
KBFD AREA BETWEEN 16-18Z.
MAX TEMPS /USING A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND/ RANGE FORM THE L-M 50S
IN THE NW...TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE SOME PULSES OF WEAK-MDT UVVEL INVOF OF THE
SLOWING CFRONT ACROSS SERN PENN WILL BRING THE CHC FOR A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WITH HIGHLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
THE CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE
TUESDAY AS A FEW WEAK SFC WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE RIPPLE NE
ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED CFRONT JUST TO OUR SE WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NNW INTO THE REGION. WILL STRONGLY CONSIDER
BOOSTING POPS UP LATE TONIGHT AND TUES MORNING WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR WHERE
LATEST SREF/GEFS SHOW 90+ PERCENT PROBS FOR 0.10 OF AN INCH OF
RAINFL...WITH 60-80 PROBS FOR 0.25 INCH OF QPF.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE COOL UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE U40S AND MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE STATE IN THE MORNING.
THE PATTERN TURNS QUITE UNSETTLED FOR LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A DEEP...SLOW-MOVING CLOSED LOW DROPS SE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...BEFORE BECOMING SITUATED FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST 00Z/06Z OPER/ENS
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN EVOLUTION/LOCATION OF THIS UPPER
LOW COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW MODEL RUNS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A STEADY FEED/PLUME OF MOISTURE
WILL STREAM NWWD AND SPIRAL AROUND THIS UPPER LOW...WITH THE
CURRENT TARGET AREA FOR THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOCATED
SOMEWHERE ACRS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN...EAST TO THE SUSQ VALLEY.
PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THE FINER DETAILS FOR THIS MDTLY HEAVY
PRECIP EVENT.
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER
FRIDAY AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RIDGE WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST. STILL KEPT MENTION OF A SHOWER SE ON SAT. POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER WAVE TO BRING CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY...BUT MODEL
CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THIS TIME.
SO OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER READING
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN A WARMING TREND. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE
TO BE HAD THIS WEEK WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN
A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CIGS. THE BOUNDARY HAS SLOWLY MOVED EASTWARD
AND DUE TO THE LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURES...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH LIFR VSBYS HAS SPREAD TO
ALL EASTERN TAF SITES. THIS FOG AND LOW STRATOCU SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING. IN ADDITION THE LOW CIGS...A BATCH OF SHRA
WITH TSRA WILL LIFT THRU THE REGION BTWN 08Z- 13Z ASSOC WITH AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. CURRENT RADAR HAS A LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST WITH ISOLATED TSRA MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
IMPROVING FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH
THRU THE REGION. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SUGGEST A RETURN TO
VFR CONDS IS LIKELY BY ARND 15Z AT KJST AND POSSIBLY BY AFTN
ACROSS THE EASTERN AIRFIELDS FROM KIPT SOUTH THRU KMDT/KLNS.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA. THIS COULD AFFECT MDT/LNS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY SE.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1026 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO WX/POP/QPF GRIDS TO TRY AND IMPROVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS OF MORNING SHOWERS AND LIKELY HEAT OF THE
DAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LEAVING TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL BE INTO ND LATER THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM RADARS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP ON LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ND...MOVING SOUTHWARD. AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND EVEN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
SD. LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TODAY...BUT A FEW MEMBERS BRING THINGS INTO
THE JAMES VALLEY. IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS AN EVEN
FURTHER EASTWARD PUSH IN ACTIVITY TODAY AND BRINGS A LINE OF SHOWERS
INTO THE JAMES VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISO/WDLY SCT
AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN CWA TOWARDS I-29.
COOL POCKET OF 500 MB TEMPS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY ALLOWING FOR
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE HRRR CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF THIS EASTWARD PUSH IS A TREND THAT
CONTINUES. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...HAVE SLID POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST
TODAY...BUT KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD PROVIDE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS SO KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...MAKING WAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND LONGEVITY OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
HIGHS. KEPT WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THEY
WILL BE LEAST IMPACTED BY THESE VARIABLES. HIGHS COULD PUSH 70
THERE. 60S ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE BUT RANGE OF 60S ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP DURATION/FREQUENCY. TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN MILD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS A
NICE SURGE OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT 925/850 MB MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. WILL ALSO HAVE GOOD MIXING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST HELPING
TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS DAMPENED AS A
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY SWINGS ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
WITH DECENT WAA IN PLACE...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
MORNING...THEN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KMBG...KPIR AND POSSIBLY KABR WILL BE AFFECTED.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
637 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
THE MAIN FEATURE TODAY IS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THIS LOW DOWN INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS IS
EVIDENCED BY FOLLOWING THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL QG FORCING. MOISTURE
IS FAIRLY DEEP WITH THIS SYSTEM IN OUR FAR WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY AROUND THE CHAMBERLAIN AREA...WHERE HIGH
END SCATTERED POPS ARE WARRANTED. BUT HEADING EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDLE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...THE MOISTURE PROFILE SHALLOWS OUT AS YOU
MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE WAVE. THIS WARRANTS JUST LOW END
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED POPS. IN OUR WEST...THE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER TO WARRANT A MENTION OF TSRA.
A SECOND FEATURE WHICH IS INTERESTING IS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
I 29 CORRIDOR. THE VARIOUS MODELS SHOW ABOUT A 75MB THICK CU DECK
CENTERED NEAR 750MB IN THAT STRIPE...WITH THE MOISTURE MORE SHALLOW
IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN ZONES FROM WINDOM TO STORM LAKE. BELIEVE WITH
THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND REMAINING UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW...
THAT WE WILL CU UP THIS AFTERNOON FROM I 29 EASTWARD...AND THE
MOISTURE DEPTH COULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I 29. THERE IS A SUBTLE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
NOTED AT 500MB VERY CLOSE TO SIOUX FALLS AT 00Z TUE...MAXIMIZED
WHERE THE AIR ALOFT IS THE COLDEST. WITH THE MID AND UPPER FLOW
SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST AT SIOUX CITY...KEPT KSUX DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I 29 COULD HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM ABOUT 3PM TO 6PM. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS...AS WELL AS THE ARW AND NMM.
OTHERWISE OVERALL THOUGH...WITH LIGHT WINDS IT WILL BE A NICE DAY
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE. FOR TONIGHT...IT
SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL AS OUR WESTERN WAVE DEPARTS LEAVING A RISK OF
SOME EARLY EVENING SHOWERS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THE HEATING DRIVEN
CUMULUS NEAR I 29 WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY. LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
TUESDAY ANOTHER STEP IN THE WARMER DIRECTION WITH A HEALTHY WESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD DROPPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCRAPING UP ALONG NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
CWA BORDER TOWARD EVENING...WHICH WILL GIVE A FULL DAY OF MIXING FOR
THE AREA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EARLY...BUT LOOK FOR A GREATER DEGREE
OF CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
MIXED VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A TAIL OF DIV Q WILL
BRUSH THROUGH SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE COULD BE ENOUGH TO ENTICE A FEW MORE WELL DEVELOPED
CUMULUS AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT LATE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUD LAYER STRUGGLING TO REACH -10C...LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH ICE PROCESS EVEN WITH 100-200 MLCAPE TO THREATEN ANY
LIGHTNING.
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH...ANY MAYBE A TOUCH STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE AS 20
TO 30 KNOTS IN WITHIN 1 KFT OF SURFACE DURING POST FRONTAL COLD
ADVECTION PERIOD...SO ADDED A TERRAIN ENHANCED 3-5 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE NIGHT. BLENDED IN TYPICALLY BETTER
CONSRAW MODEL DATA...AND EVEN THIS KEPT READINGS A BIT HIGHER TO
MATCH EXPECTED BREEZIER AREAS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SETTLE IN FOR A PLEASANT AND DRY PERIOD AS
OMEGA BLOCK BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE MID CONUS. SLIGHT COOLING
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE HEART OF THE AREA BY
EVENING...AND STILL OPEN FOR SOME BREEZIER NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY IN PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA. RIDGE LINGERS EAST OF I 29
ACROSS MAINLY NW IA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN FAVORING SOME OF THE
COLDER GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I 29. MORE SUN...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMING OFF SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN BOOST
READINGS INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO NUDGE EASTWARD OVER THE AREA...EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS WITH A FEW 80 DEGREES READINGS POPPING UP...BUT ALSO LIKELY
DEALING WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS.
THE OVERALL SITUATION BECOMES MUCH MORE MUDDLED BY THE WEEKEND...
WITH OMEGA BLOCK WEAKENING/BREAKDOWN SUBTLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS. MAIN DIFFERENCE LOOKS TO BE HOW STRONG HUDSON BAY
LOW MAINTAINS...AND WHAT KICK WAVE SLIDING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
GIVES TO EASTERN UPPER WAVE PORTION OF OMEGA BLOCK. IMPACT FOR OUR
AREA IS HOW AGGRESSIVELY A LOWER TO MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF/CANADIAN STRONGEST WITH WAVE FLATTENING RIDGE AND FASTEST AND
FURTHEST SOUTHWARD WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION...WHILE GFS A BIT MORE
LEISURELY IN PUSHING BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION ON
EVENTUAL PRECIPITATION THREAT BETWEEN SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS
PARTICULARLY WET THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...AND ECMWF QUICKLY SENDING
FOCUS MORE TOWARD I 80. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP FROM ANY STRONG
CONSENSUS AROUND THE REGION...AND AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY TRENDED FROM
FAIRLY BLANKETED UNIFORM POPS TO SHOW A BIT OF A LESSER CHANCE NORTH
VS. SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WESTERN UPPER LOW BEGINS A
WOBBLE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... AND
LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN/THUNDER DEVELOP JUST
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MORE
PREVALENT CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING BACK SEASONABLE 60S
ON SUNDAY.
WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP ONE EYE ON FRONTAL PROGRESSION ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF DECENT INSTABILITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY
AND POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE LOCALIZED SHEAR...MAINLY LOWER IN THE
WIND PROFILE...COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS IN THE
AREA OF THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND LIKELY TONIGHT. THERE IS AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHWARD TODAY THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD.
THIS WILL AFFECT THE KHON TAF SITE WITH SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TSRA ALSO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT THE CHANCE FOR TSRA IS TOO SKITTISH TO WARRANT A MENTION
IN THE KHON TAF. FURTHER EAST...SOME INSTABILITY LIGHT SHOWERS
COULD FORM IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON NEAR I 29. BUT THEY TOO
WILL LIKELY BE TOO ISOLATED TO CURRENTLY WARRANT A MENTION IN THE
KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
628 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL BE INTO ND LATER THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM RADARS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP ON LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ND...MOVING SOUTHWARD. AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND EVEN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
SD. LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TODAY...BUT A FEW MEMBERS BRING THINGS INTO
THE JAMES VALLEY. IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS AN EVEN
FURTHER EASTWARD PUSH IN ACTIVITY TODAY AND BRINGS A LINE OF SHOWERS
INTO THE JAMES VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISO/WDLY SCT
AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN CWA TOWARDS I-29.
COOL POCKET OF 500 MB TEMPS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY ALLOWING FOR
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE HRRR CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF THIS EASTWARD PUSH IS A TREND THAT
CONTINUES. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...HAVE SLID POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST
TODAY...BUT KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD PROVIDE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS SO KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...MAKING WAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND LONGEVITY OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
HIGHS. KEPT WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THEY
WILL BE LEAST IMPACTED BY THESE VARIABLES. HIGHS COULD PUSH 70
THERE. 60S ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE BUT RANGE OF 60S ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP DURATION/FREQUENCY. TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN MILD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS A
NICE SURGE OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT 925/850 MB MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. WILL ALSO HAVE GOOD MIXING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST HELPING
TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS DAMPENED AS A
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY SWINGS ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
WITH DECENT WAA IN PLACE...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
MORNING...THEN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KMBG...KPIR AND POSSIBLY KABR WILL BE AFFECTED.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
956 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS SITUATED OVER NORTH MS MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG
A COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO OCNL HEAVY RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS WEST AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MS WHERE THE SOME
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
SINCE CELLS ARE MOVING SLOWLY. ALREADY UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS
IN THE SHORT TERM ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIVER FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THEN TRIMMED POPS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIP
STARTS TO MOVE OUT.
SJM
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70S AT MEMPHIS...BUT ARE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS IS THE COOLEST AREA WHERE CORNING AND WALNUT RIDGE ARE
REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S. MORNING LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA STRETCHING FROM NEAR
PARIS TENNESSEE ACROSS MEMPHIS INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING...WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LAPS LI`S ARE BELOW -2C ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH CAPE 350 J/KG OR LESS. HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST HELPING TO PROVIDE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LAPS RATES ARE MODEST...AROUND 7.5C SO HAIL WOULD
BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...UP TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING SO
HOPEFULLY THAT WILL LIMIT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE HRRR HAD BEEN
PERFORMING WELL UNTIL YESTERDAY...AND DOESN`T SEEM TO HAVE A
HANDEL ON THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND NORTH
LOUISIANA. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING.
IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT. HIGHS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MAY APPROACH 80 ONE MORE
DAY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS AFTERNOON...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY GIVING THE SURFACE FRONT ANOTHER
NUDGE OFF TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
WE WILL SEE A BLOCKING PATTERN SET UP TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS....POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT BENIGN WEATHER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MAY BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO
WEST TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
HIGHS MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S IN DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WORK WEEK IN THE COOLEST PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. WIDESPREAD
LOW 70S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
WEEK OR SO SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY MORNING WHEN SOME
LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE LOW 50S MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
WARMER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
CURRENTLY A LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA IS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE FA
AND WILL SOON IMPACT ALL TERMINALS. HAVE PREVAILED SHRA AND VCTS THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPO TO HANDLE TSRA AND LOWER VISBYS TO MVFR CAT.
GIVEN THE POOR HANDLING OF CONVECTION BY MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING IS LOW. WINDS
GENERALLY FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 5 AND 12 KTS
TODAY...AND SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY TO BE NEAR 5 KTS BY END OF PERIOD.
VCSH INCLUDED THROUGH TONIGHT BUT DROPPED LATE IN PERIOD AS FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF REGION.
ZDM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
638 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70S AT MEMPHIS...BUT ARE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS IS THE COOLEST AREA WHERE CORNING AND WALNUT RIDGE ARE
REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S. MORNING LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA STRETCHING FROM NEAR
PARIS TENNESSEE ACROSS MEMPHIS INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING...WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LAPS LI`S ARE BELOW -2C ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH CAPE 350 J/KG OR LESS. HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HELPING TO PROVIDE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LAPS RATES ARE MODEST...AROUND 7.5C SO HAIL WOULD
BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...UP TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING SO
HOPEFULLY THAT WILL LIMIT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE HRRR HAD BEEN
PERFORMING WELL UNTIL YESTERDAY...AND DOESN`T SEEM TO HAVE A
HANDEL ON THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND NORTH
LOUISIANA. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING.
IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT. HIGHS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MAY APPROACH 80 ONE MORE
DAY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS AFTERNOON...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY GIVING THE SURFACE FRONT ANOTHER
NUDGE OFF TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
WE WILL SEE A BLOCKING PATTERN SET UP TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS....POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT BENIGN WEATHER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MAY BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO
WEST TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
HIGHS MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S IN DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WORK WEEK IN THE COOLEST PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. WIDESPREAD
LOW 70S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
WEEK OR SO SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY MORNING WHEN SOME
LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE LOW 50S MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
WARMER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
CURRENTLY A LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA IS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE FA
AND WILL SOON IMPACT ALL TERMINALS. HAVE PREVAILED SHRA AND VCTS THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPO TO HANDLE TSRA AND LOWER VISBYS TO MVFR CAT.
GIVEN THE POOR HANDLING OF CONVECTION BY MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING IS LOW. WINDS
GENERALLY FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 5 AND 12 KTS
TODAY...AND SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY TO BE NEAR 5 KTS BY END OF PERIOD.
VCSH INCLUDED THROUGH TONIGHT BUT DROPPED LATE IN PERIOD AS FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF REGION.
ZDM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
954 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A DEEP UPPER LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL SAG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
APPALACHIANS KEEPING AN UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 954 AM EDT MONDAY...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG HAS ENDED. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFTING AND MIXING OUT THIS
MORNING. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GREENBRIER COUNTY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS FOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED LIS
AROUND MINUS 4 TO MINUS 6 AND CAPES ABOUT 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
SUPPORT ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION. THE LATEST DAY ONE
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK PLACES MUCH OF CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. LEANED POPS TOWARDS THE
HIRESW- ARW AND HRRR FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MORE CHANGES
LATER THIS MORNING.
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...
AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS WEATHERWISE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
MAIN CONCERNS BEING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. OVERALL...EXPECTING GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE
TODAY THAN OBSERVED SUNDAY...ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES DRAPED
ATOP THE FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND...ALL
EMANATING FROM A PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD IN
RESPONSE TO REPEATED DISTURBANCES...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WITH
COLD POOL OUTFLOW...AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW ALL THE WHILE
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY 00Z THIS EVENING...EXPECT
THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN TN INTO EASTERN WV AND CENTRAL
MD. EXPECTING AMPLE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL
PUSH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY MID-
LATE AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S AND PWATS NEARING
1.5 INCH AND AT LEAST WEAK SHEAR...AND A WEAKLY DIFFLUENT UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. AS
A RESULT...SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MUCH OF THE CWA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHEAR/HELICITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH THE BETTER OF SUCH LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN VA/MD/DC AREA...WHERE SPC HAS INDICATED A 5 PERCENT RISK
OF TORNADOES. MAIN THREATS IN OUR AREA...AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST
FEW DAYS...SHOULD BE HAIL AND SOME WIND DAMAGE WITH DCAPES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. 500MB TEMPS ARE COOLING TOWARD
-20C THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE FREEZING LEVEL IS RELATIVELY LOW.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS. THIS ISSUE IS ADDRESSED BELOW IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION...GENERALLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO MIDDLE TN/NORTHERN AL.
THUS...WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AFTER 18Z
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SPREADING SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE IN THE 22Z-04Z TIME FRAME.
WITH NO WEDGE IN PLACE TODAY AND SOME INSOLATION
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARM
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. TEMPS SUN WERE QUITE WARM AS THE WEDGE BROKE
MUCH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING NEAR
+12C AGAIN TODAY...IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...70S WEST TO LOWER 80S
EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT COULD SEE SOME
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY PRESENT...DUE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S IN THIS AREA. THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES TOWARD THE COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW
LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S.
BY WEDNESDAY..A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH FROM HUDSON
BAY IN CANADA TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. THE MODELS INSIST THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A CUT OFF LOW DURING
THURSDAY...WHILE ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE PLAINS
BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...THIS OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SHOULD BLOCK THE
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. DUE TO THE CLOSED LOW
OVERHEAD...EXPECT GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL...IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT FEEL LIKE THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY
TOWARD THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TUMBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. 85H
TEMPS OF 0 TO +5 DEG C ARE PROGGED TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND IF THIS VERIFIES...IT WILL SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS THE UPPER
LOW PASSES OVERHEAD...COLD POOL ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING FOR A DAILY THREAT OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS.
CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT PER BLOCKY LOOK TO THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN...WITH CUTOFF LOWS ON THE WEST AND EAST COASTS AND
A RIDGE UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. UNLIKE THE LAST OMEGA BLOCK
WHERE THE MID ATLANTIC ENJOYED UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...JUST THE OPPOSITE IS OCCURRING THIS GO
ROUND.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE MODELS INDICATE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EAST TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
MODERATING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
ATTM...WEEKEND AS A WHOLE LOOKS DRY. WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INSTABILITY...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE MUCH COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT MONDAY...
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED AS SLOW MOVING FRONT COMBINES WITH
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMANATING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.
LATE DAY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY HAVE LEFT THE REGION WITH
MOIST GROUND AND CONSEQUENTLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
THIS MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING...MAINLY IN INTO THE MVFR TO LOW END VFR CATEGORY UNTIL
SHRA/TSRA ARRIVE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
LOCALIZED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH CONVECTION...THEN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR MVFR OR WORSE VSBYS/CIGS OVERNIGHT IN
LINGERING SHRA/TSRA AFTER 06Z.
WINDS SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFT 14Z. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOCATION
AND TIMING OF SUCH ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE WSW-W AFTER THUNDERSTORMS PASS WITH SOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT BEHIND
CONVECTION.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS...VSBYS...AND WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE MID ATLANTIC IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY...BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED EASTWARD BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ARRIVE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY...AND SETTLE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WORK WEEK. OVERALL...FLYING CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER POOR FOR
LATE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS...PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...AND PATCHY FOG.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PW/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
659 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS/TEMPERATURES AND THEN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
AMONG THE 02.00Z RUNS AND WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED APPROACH.
FOR TODAY...A SHORT-WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...KEEPING PRECIP WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO HOME...RAP/GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING TO EVENTUALLY FILL-IN WITH BROKEN
THERMAL CUMULUS. COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES FROM THIS CLOUD DECK
GIVEN HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS UP TO AT LEAST 500 HPA...NOT
EXPECTING ANY MEANINGFUL SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY...BUT SPRINKLES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER TODAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 60S.
THERMAL CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 HPA TEMPERATURES RISE TO BETWEEN +13 AND
+15 CELSIUS RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WI TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90.
BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO DEEPENS TO AROUND 800 HPA WITH ROUGHLY 25 TO
30 KTS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 30 MPH OR MORE. ELSEWHERE...
EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
25 MPH.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF 100 KT 300
HPA JET STREAK WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS PROGRESSING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. AS A RESULT...INCREASED POPS TO 80 PERCENT LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW 100-200 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. WITH A
COOLER WEDNESDAY (HIGHS UPPER 50S/60S) IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY
NIGHT/S FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE EACH DAY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGHS BY FRIDAY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
70S AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500 HPA RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CONUS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH AND A FOUR CORNERS
CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES
AT THIS POINT TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL STAY SOUTH OF KLSE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WIND WINDS THROUGH THE
TIME PERIOD. AS WE REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY LATE
MORNING... A SCATTERED TO BROKEN 5K DECK OF CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP.
THESE CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...BOYNE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
313 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Main short-term forecast concern will be timing of potential
clearing tonight. While the main surface boundary has dropped south
of the Ohio River, a trailing upper trough extending from Wisconsin
southwestward to Kansas has provided enough synoptic lift to produce
widespread overcast conditions today. Visible satellite loops show
the low cloud cover pivoting southward on the back side of a subtle
upper wave currently over central Illinois. As this feature tracks
further eastward, think clouds will gradually dissipate/clear the
Illinois River Valley this evening. Due to trajectory of cloud
cover and relatively light flow, clouds will likely hold throughout
the entire night along/east of the I-57 corridor. May see a few
isolated light showers this evening: however, most locations will
remain dry. Overnight low temperatures will range from the lower
40s northwest of the Illinois River where clearing will occur
earliest...to around 50 degrees far southeast around Robinson and
Lawrenceville.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Cyclonic flow will continue over the area through Wed. A lull in the
pcpn chances will be seen Tuesday as CWA will be in between troughs
rotating through the area. However, will still keep a slight chance
of showers in the east and southeast Tuesday due to a 500mb trough
moving south through the area...just without any surface reflection.
A bigger and more dominate trough will drop into the area Tue night
through Wed. Pcpn will start in the north Tue evening and then move
south through the area the remainder of the night and then in the
east on Wed. Isolated thunder will also be possible given greater
lapse rates due to cold 500mb temps moving over the area in
association with the upper level low. The pcpn will move off to the
east Wed night, which will allow high pressure to build into the
region with dry weather and slowly warming temps for Thur through
Fri. This surface high pressure ridge will get flattened by the end
of the week as another frontal system drops into the area for the
weekend. With warm and moist air being advected into the area Friday
and Saturday, will be plenty of instability for thunderstorms along
and ahead of the front Sat night through Monday. The front does seem
to hang around the area through the weekend since there will be an
upper level low just east of the US and another one over the
southwest US.
Temps will remain below normal most of the week, but begin to warm
back up as the high pressure that builds in Thursday moves off to
the east, bringing back southerly winds. The warmer temps will
continue through the weekend and into the beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
MVFR ceilings prevail at the central Illinois terminals early this
afternoon. Latest water vapor imagery shows a weak short-wave
trough over west-central Illinois between KSTL and KUIN. As this
feature tracks eastward, the low cloud cover will tend to pivot
southward in its wake, resulting in rising ceilings and eventually
a clearing trend from west to east later this afternoon and
evening. HRRR forecast suggests ceilings improving to VFR at KPIA
as early as 20z...but holding off until 03-04z further southeast
at KCMI/KDEC. Think skies will clear along/west of I-55 during the
evening, then further east late tonight toward dawn Tuesday. After
that, forecast soundings indicate steep lapse rates developing on
Tuesday, which should lead to at least SCT diurnal clouds at
around 5000ft. Winds will be light through the entire
period...initially from the northeast this afternoon, shifting to
the northwest by Tuesday morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1259 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...1031 AM CDT
SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE SKIES BEGAN TO THIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AS DRIER AIR BEGAN TO DRIFT SOUTH FROM THE WEAK ANTI-
CYCLONIC FEATURE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND STRETCHES
WEST THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL...HOWEVER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STRATUS LAYER WILL PERSIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80. TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT MAY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
INTO THE MIDDLE TO PERHAPS UPPER 50S WHERE SKIES REMAIN SUNNY.
HOWEVER FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPERATURES MAY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AS WINDS WILL BE FROM A NORTH
TO AT TIMES NORTHEAST DIRECTION.
BEACHLER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
348 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. MOSTLY CLOUDY...COOL AND OCCASIONALLY
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PLAGUE THE REGION TODAY AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY... INTERRUPTED BRIEFLY TUESDAY AS WARMER WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF STRONG DIGGING SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR CARVING OUT THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE
EASTERN TROUGH.
IN THE NEAR TERM...MID-LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WHICH PROVIDED OUR RAINY WEEKEND WERE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE LINGERING MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST INDIANA COUNTIES AS
OF 3 AM. LOW LEVEL WINDS BACKING MORE NORTHERLY THIS MORNING WILL
BRING MODEST DRYING WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIP...AND THIN OUT SOME OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR NORTHERN IL. SIGNIFICANT CLEARING IS NOT EXPECTED
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD SUPPORT
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AND MAY SUPPORT A FEW SPRINKLES MAINLY
WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE ALSO
CONTINUES TO DEPICT SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT IN THE
VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LEFT BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. NORTHEAST WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE COMBINED WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH UPPER 40S
LIKELY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES MAY TAG 60 BRIEFLY WELL INLAND OF MAIN LAKE COOLING PUSH
AND WHERE SOME PEAKS OF SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THEN DRIFTS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AND A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
WEST AS THIS RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LOW DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE BRIEFLY WARM
UP TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM... WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S EXPECTED. WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD LIMIT ANY LAKE COOLING PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE
LAKE IN LAKE/PORTER COUNTIES. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP QUICKLY AGAIN
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACH. GIVEN CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN MODEL RUNS HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OR SO OF THE CWA...AND INCLUDED SLGT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER
GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH PRECIP WILL LIKELY
LINGER DURING THE DAY AS INSTABILITY SHOWERS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.
RENEWED PUSH OF COOLER AIR ON BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL LIMIT
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS WEDNESDAY MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S ALONG
THE INDIANA IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE...THOUGH INLAND PARTS OF NORTHERN
IL MAY REACH 60. PRECIP THREAT DWINDLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
DIURNAL STABILIZATION. DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES LOOK TO
PRODUCE A CHILLY NIGHT FOR EARLY MAY...WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN SOME SPOTS.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
356 AM CDT
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER PATTERN IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BY MID-WEEK...WITH DEEP TROUGHS
OVER BOTH COASTS AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS
THE RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD...RISING HEIGHTS/SUBSIDENCE RESULT IN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND
BRINGING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AND
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND LAKE BREEZES. 70S RETURN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY HOWEVER AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND TRAILS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY...WITH AN ATTENDANT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...THEN BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY SET UP A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT OF TEMPS WITH 70S ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN SUNDAY...AND
COOLER 50S-60S ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE TO ITS
NORTH WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
NORTHERN IL AIRFIELDS...WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND VFR CONDS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTH...WINDS HAVE REMAINED NORTHEASTERLY BETWEEN
030 TO 050 DEGREES AND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 12KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20KT. CLOSER TO SUNSET WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER
DIMINISH...THEN BEGIN TO TURN NORTHERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 4-6KT
BY 3Z. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME VARIABLE TO NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT
WITH NEAR CLOUDLESS SKIES. SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TUE WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY WITH INCREASING SPEEDS TO AROUND 12-15KT AND
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY TO 18KT. CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWLY ON THE INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
300 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS DEPARTING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME
LINGERING 15 TO 20 KT WINDS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN...BUT PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY...BUT A
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER RIDGE APPROACHES THE REGION.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1253 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Another mostly cloudy and cool day is unfolding across central
Illinois, thanks to a slow-moving upper trough extending from
Wisconsin southwestward to Kansas. Weak synoptic lift ahead of
this feature will be enough to trigger isolated showers today.
With cool surface temps and corresponding instability parameters
remaining quite weak, do not think thunder will develop. Latest
visible satellite imagery generally shows overcast conditions:
however, some partial clearing is trying to work into the far
northern KILX CWA from the northeast. Think any clear spots that
develop will fill back in due to adequately steep lapse rates in
the vicinity of the approaching upper trough axis. As a result,
will maintain the mostly cloudy forecast across the board. Thanks
to the clouds and a continued northeasterly flow, high
temperatures this afternoon will remain below normal for this time
of year, mainly in the middle to upper 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
While cooler/drier post-frontal air has overspread all of central &
southeast Illinois since yesterday, the threat for a few showers
will persist today. Forecast area remains on the southern side of a
sheared upper-level trof that extends from eastern Canada into the
southwestern United States. Another disturbance within this mean
flow, currently over the central Plains, will track across the area
today. Radar returns associated with this disturbance are already
tracking across Missouri and approaching Illinois. This feature will
have limited moisture to work on today as it moves through, and
limited diurnal instability is expected to develop. With this
thinking in mind, only Slight Chance PoPs and low QPF are warranted
with the passage of this disturbance. Otherwise, abundant cloud
cover and cool northerly low-level flow support cooler than normal
highs today, with most locations topping out in the 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016
Little change indicated from previous model runs in terms of the
upper air pattern this week, with significant ridging along the
Rockies and a cold core low dropping southward through the Great
Lakes by Wednesday night. The ridge will get squeezed and shift
eastward with time, as a second upper low comes onshore of
California. A slow breakdown of the ridge will take place this
weekend as a more significant trough drops southeast through central
Canada. Although temperatures will be relatively cool for the middle
of the week, a significant warming trend will take place beginning
Friday as the thermal axis approaches from the west.
The presence of the current elongated trough from the Great Lakes to
the central Plains will continue a threat of a few showers on
Tuesday, mainly over the southeast parts of the CWA. Better chances
of scattered showers are expected Wednesday as the upper low moves
in from the north. Have increased the PoP`s late Tuesday night and
Wednesday with the main frontal boundary, with chance PoP`s as far
south as I-70 by late Tuesday night. While showers will taper for
awhile Wednesday morning as the front exits, scattered showers are
again expected in the afternoon across mainly eastern Illinois, as
the upper low arrives. Coldest air aloft will be centered over
Indiana in the afternoon, and have maintained a mention of isolated
thunder over eastern Illinois due to the steep lapse rates expected.
Late in the period, the extended models start to show some
disagreement. While the upper features are similar, with an upper
low over Colorado or eastern Utah and shortwaves rotating through
the Great Lakes, the ECMWF is further south with a surface warm
front connecting the two. This would result in scattered showers
into central Illinois Saturday night, whereas the GFS does not bring
the boundary into the area until late Sunday afternoon. For now have
mentioned only slight chances of showers and thunderstorms until
this starts to clear up a bit.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016
MVFR ceilings prevail at the central Illinois terminals early this
afternoon. Latest water vapor imagery shows a weak short-wave
trough over west-central Illinois between KSTL and KUIN. As this
feature tracks eastward, the low cloud cover will tend to pivot
southward in its wake, resulting in rising ceilings and eventually
a clearing trend from west to east later this afternoon and
evening. HRRR forecast suggests ceilings improving to VFR at KPIA
as early as 20z...but holding off until 03-04z further southeast
at KCMI/KDEC. Think skies will clear along/west of I-55 during the
evening, then further east late tonight toward dawn Tuesday. After
that, forecast soundings indicate steep lapse rates developing on
Tuesday, which should lead to at least SCT diurnal clouds at
around 5000ft. Winds will be light through the entire
period...initially from the northeast this afternoon, shifting to
the northwest by Tuesday morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
410 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN MANITOBA INTO
THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO NRN
MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY HAS BROUGHT LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE TO UPPER
MI WITH INLAND CU INLAND WEST AND NEAR LAKE MI OVER THE EAST.
TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE SE LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NRN ONTARIO. ADVANCING WAA MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING FROM DEVELOPING SW
GRADIENT WIND BETWEEN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING TROUGH
SHOULD ALLOW FALLING TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN CLIMB TOWARD
SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
CENTRAL AND EAST. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE 40 NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WEST.
TUESDAY...THE VIGOROUS NRN MANITOBA SHRTWV TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INTO THE NRN LAKES BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH
THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 250-300 MB JET. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE
200-400 J/KG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT
SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE CNTRL
AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES... TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES INTO THE
25-35 PCT RANGE WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z WED THAT
DIGS SOUTHWARD ON WED AND DIGS A DEEP TROUGH THAT AFFECTS THE EAST
COAST 00Z FRI. THE NAM TAKES SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE CWA 00Z WED AND MOVES IT OUT ON WED.
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL AND WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES. DID KEEP PCPN
IN FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AND STILL LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL. KEPT IT
DRY FOR WED NIGHT AND THEN LOOKED LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SLIGHT
POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR THU MORNING.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 500 MB TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS
AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS 12Z FRI. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES 12Z FRI THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE
AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT AND MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
ON MON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TUE MORNING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. IN ADDITION...SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT IWD AND SAW BY LATE MORNING BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITION BELOW VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO
20 KNOTS. AS RIDGE SAGS SE TONIGHT...WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME
N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH WINDS TO
LESS THAN 20KT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
259 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WRN
NORTH AMERICA WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NORTH
AMERICA INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED
IN A WEAK NW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE
REGION CLOUD-FREE OVERNIGHT. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
SHALLOW PATCHY FOG AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING OVER IRONWOOD AREA
WHERE SFC OBS INDICATE CONDITIONS NEAR SATURATION AND WHERE SFC HIGH
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE AT 12Z. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE WITH DIURNAL MIXING.
TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL AGAIN ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE REACHING THE FARTHEST
INLAND. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CU DEVELOPMENT
ALONG LAKE BREEZES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA IN THE EVENING WILL SLIDE SE LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NRN ONTARIO. ADVANCING
WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING FROM
DEVELOPING SW GRADIENT WIND BTWN DEPARTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FALLING TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER...UNTIL THEN GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO LOWER NEAR
THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS INTERIOR WEST AND
CENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z WED THAT
DIGS SOUTHWARD ON WED AND DIGS A DEEP TROUGH THAT AFFECTS THE EAST
COAST 00Z FRI. THE NAM TAKES SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE CWA 00Z WED AND MOVES IT OUT ON WED.
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL AND WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES. DID KEEP PCPN
IN FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AND STILL LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL. KEPT IT
DRY FOR WED NIGHT AND THEN LOOKED LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SLIGHT
POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR THU MORNING.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 500 MB TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS
AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS 12Z FRI. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES 12Z FRI THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE
AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT AND MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
ON MON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TUE MORNING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. IN ADDITION...SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT IWD AND SAW BY LATE MORNING BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITION BELOW VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO
20 KNOTS. AS RIDGE SAGS SE TONIGHT...WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME
N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH WINDS TO
LESS THAN 20KT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
137 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WRN
NORTH AMERICA WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NORTH
AMERICA INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED
IN A WEAK NW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE
REGION CLOUD-FREE OVERNIGHT. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
SHALLOW PATCHY FOG AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING OVER IRONWOOD AREA
WHERE SFC OBS INDICATE CONDITIONS NEAR SATURATION AND WHERE SFC HIGH
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE AT 12Z. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE WITH DIURNAL MIXING.
TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL AGAIN ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE REACHING THE FARTHEST
INLAND. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CU DEVELOPMENT
ALONG LAKE BREEZES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA IN THE EVENING WILL SLIDE SE LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NRN ONTARIO. ADVANCING
WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING FROM
DEVELOPING SW GRADIENT WIND BTWN DEPARTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FALLING TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER...UNTIL THEN GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO LOWER NEAR
THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS INTERIOR WEST AND
CENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
TUESDAY...A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WILL BRING THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN TO
UPPER MICHIGAN IN OVER A WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SSE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...INITIATING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY INCREASING MID TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S
INLAND. ADDITIONALLY...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25MPH FOR THE WEST LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
AFTER A WEEK OF DRYING...FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED FOR
TUESDAY. FIRE WX INDICES FOR ALL FUELS...ESPECIALLY GRASSY
FUELS...HAVE BEEN BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AREAS OF
MOST CONCERN INCLUDE THE INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE SE HALF IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SLOW WHILE
CROSSING THE REGION...RESULTING IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
INLAND AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. BLUSTERY NNW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS...TEMPS IN THE 40S...WILL PRODUCE A RATHER CHILLY DAY FOR
EARLY MAY. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR MAY FAIL TO
REACH 40F.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
QUICKER WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH A SURGE OF WARMER
AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...HAVE TRENDED WARMER
WITH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS LOOKS TO TOP OUT WELL IN THE 70S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WEST. WINDS LOOK RATHER LIGHT...SO FIRE WX CONCERNS
WILL BE LOWER ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TUE MORNING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. IN ADDITION...SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT IWD AND SAW BY LATE MORNING BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITION BELOW VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO
20 KNOTS. AS RIDGE SAGS SE TONIGHT...WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME
N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH WINDS TO
LESS THAN 20KT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1244 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE HAS NOW SHIFTED INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ALONG WITH NEARLY ALL THE PCPN. SEEMS LIKE THE BEST LIFT
WAS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME COLD TEMPS
ALOFT BEHIND IT. THEREFORE STARTING TO SEE SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. MAIN QUESTION IS
WHETHER ANY OF THE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS. AT LEAST ONE RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS SOME...SO WILL KEEP AN
EYE OUT FOR THIS...BUT NOT MENTION ANY MORE SHOWERS AT THIS POINT.
TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALREADY SO HIGHS AROUND 70 IN
SOME AREAS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
500 MB RIDGE NEAR CALGARY EARLY THIS MORNING. A SHORT WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH AROUND THE RIDGE IS NEAR THE BRANDON MANITOBA AREA
AND WILL DROP THRU CNTRL ND TODAY. THERE REMAINS A FEW SHOWERS
WITH THIS WAVE...MOSTLY NOW CENTERED RIGHT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER BRANDON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DROP SOUTH AFFECTING
PARTS OF THE DVL BASIN THIS MORNING. THE POSITION OF THE SHORT
WAVE AND 500 COOL POOL GIVES SCT AFTN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO
SOUTH CENTRAL ND THIS AFTN (BIS-JMS) AND SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA. THIS LINES WITH SPC GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK TODAY.
CONTINUED TREND FROM PREV FCST AND MADE FEW CHANGES. AREA OF MID
CLOUDS IN CNTRL ND WITH HIGHER CLOUDS EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE.
DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ENOUGH SUN AND WARMTH TO BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 60S WITH A 70 OR SO PSBL IN NRN RRV AS THIS AREA WILL SEE
THE WARMEST TEMPS 925-850 MB AND LESS CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTN.
WINDS TODAY PRETTY LIGHT.....GENERALLY A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND THEN ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH IN THE AFTN WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING TO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE IN THE RRV AND ERN ND.
TEMPS IN NRN AREAS A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY WHILE SRN AREAS TO BE A
BIT WARMER WITH LOW 70S. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE
TO OUR EAST AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATER TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WARM ADV ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC HIGH WILL SPREAD
SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SHOWER TO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION WED
NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND AND
850 MB TEMPS INTO THE MID TEENS. WARM AGAIN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS BOTH
THU/FRI MOSTLY 75-80. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS WITH FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE
BEEN MORE VARIABLE. SOME MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE
KEPT PRECIP CHANCES INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE SOME 00Z MON
RUNS HAVE COME ALONG WITH A DRIER SOLN. WILL MAINTAIN THE CR
SUPERBLEND APPROACH WHICH MAY END UP BEING A BIT TOO WET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
SCT TO FEW HIGH CIGS WITH LIGHT WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1229 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
SHOWER CLUSTER MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION NOW NEARLY OUT OF T
EH STATE. SO FAR THE LIGHTNING HAS BEEN VERY SPARSE...IN FACT
NONE SINCE ABOUT 5 AM. WILL HOWEVER...MAINTAIN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. SKIES CLEARING NORTH. CURRENT FORECAST
TRENDING WELL.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF DEVILS LAKE AT 14Z TRACKING
SOUTH WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF MINOT.
UPPER LOW CREATING INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND HAVE HAD
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES SO FAR.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TEH MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. CLEARING NORTH. CURRENT
FORECAST TRACKING WILL AND JUST UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING. AS WE HEAT UP...THE CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN
THUS WENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES SO ADJUSTED POPS AND CLOUD COVER ACCORDINGLY THERE. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING SO EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE DESTABILIZE FURTHER...THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE RAP IS INDICATING POSSIBLE CONVECTION AS FAR
NORTH AS WELLS COUNTY AND AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES...SO EXTENDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE MORE DETAILED
DISCUSSION OF NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
STILL HOLDS...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OF THE POTENTIAL OF
STORMS NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE LOW TOP CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DETAILS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATING
AND SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING. A 100KT
JET STREAK WAS SEEN DIVING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER
LOW. CANADIAN/LOCAL MINOT RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. MINOT AIR FORCE BASE
IS THE ONLY REPORTING SURFACE STATION AT THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
RAIN. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE
THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THINGS POTENTIALLY GET MORE INTERESTING THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT (-24C) ASSOCIATED WITH A H7-H5 CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DECENT LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN NOON CDT-6PM CDT
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE 200-300 J/KG AND STEEP (1000-85MB) LAPSE
RATES OF 8.5C/KM...ALONG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55KT-65KT.
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT CAPE/UPWARD MOMENTUM IS LACKING DUE TO
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ASCENT WILL BE FULFILLED BY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED 100KT JET STREAK...WHICH
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS EXPECTING LOW TOP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL HEIGHTS PER BISMARCK BUFKIT SOUNDING OF AROUND 18KFT. WITH
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT/STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND LARGE
SCALE ASCENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE VORTICITY STRETCHING INTO
THE VERTICAL COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR COMPOSITE INDICATE THE FIRST SURGE OF
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SLIDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING...THEN POCKETS OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITYS DEVELOP AGAIN
BETWEEN 17Z AND 00Z TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CONVECTION WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE. LATER MONDAY NIGHT...A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HEAD SOUTH AND REACH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
FOR TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BRIEF/MINOR COOLING FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL (700MB-
500MB) RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TAKE CONTROL AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL DEFLECT ANY SHORTWAVES RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE TO
REMAIN IN SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AND PEAKING
BETWEEN +16C TO +20C THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TAKING THESE TEMPERATURES DOWN
DRY ADIABATICALLY TO THE SURFACE TRANSLATES INTO HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A CLOSED
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...EJECTS
NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPIATION SHIELD IS FORECAST INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
AT NOON CDT MONDAY LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. VFR ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
FOR TUESDAY...JUST A HEADS UP THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
20 AND 25 PERCENT AND WILL COINCIDE WITH THESE WINDS OVER A SMALL
PORTION OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE TIME DURATION OF
THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS WITH 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 20 PERCENT APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
WITH INSUFFICIENT DURATION AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE...WOULD NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SYNOPSIS...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
219 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
AND UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH. LARGE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF
WV...OUR NE KY ZONES...AND OUR SE OHIO ZONES BORDERING THE OHIO
RIVER. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE. SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.
ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY.
USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AND AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA.
FRONT WILL REACH A PKB-LEX LINE AROUND 00Z...THEN ONLY SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE RIDES UP THE FRONT. BY 06Z FRONT WILL BE ON A CKB-HTS
LINE...AND ON A EKN-BKW LINE BY 12Z TUESDAY.
THRU 00Z...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...BUT IFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING IFR CEILINGS
WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS....ESPECIALLY SE OHIO.
AFTER 00Z...WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS FROM THE ONGOING SHOWERS
AND STORMS...IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. BY
AROUND 03Z...EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS TO SEE GENERALLY IFR
CONDITIONS.
06Z-12Z...SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST6...BUT EXPECT
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/FOG OVER THE AREA.
AFTER 12Z...IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 16Z...WITH VFR
CEILINGS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY SW 6 TO 12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
MAINLY RIDGETOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES UP THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY FOR
THOSE AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. ALSO...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE TIMING AND FORMATION OF IFR CEILINGS AND FOG TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CEILINGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND 15Z MOST TERMINALS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-
085>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MPK
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
A LAYER OF CLOUDS WITH BASES AT APPROXIMATELY 3000 TO 5000 FEET
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. WHILE BR/FG CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT. SO...IF IT
DOES HAPPEN...IT SHOULD BE VERY SHALLOW AND RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED
AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
DROP OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. S TO SW WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT SPEEDS
WILL BE MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SOME SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR
OVER W OK TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND BEYOND.
CMS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED RAIN
CHANCES IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.
DISCUSSION...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE...THINK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. THUS...INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. THIS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER DID NOT ALTER
AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THEY SEEMED TO BE REASONABLE.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARILY
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH 21-00Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MOST TERMINALS. RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...
ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO KEEP BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS. MOST IF NOT ALL SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF RED RIVER BUT WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW-MID CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...OVERALL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST FORECAST DATA ON
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. RIGHT NOW ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
TEMPS WARM ENOUGH AND INCREASES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SUFFICIENTLY
TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.
UPPER LOW EXITING MANITOBA AND ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS PROGD TO
SINK SOUTHWARD AND TRAVERSE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTENING WE WILL KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS WESTERN
THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL PROBABLY BE
HARD TO GET ANY THUNDER...BUT WITH FAIRLY COLD CORE OF
SYSTEM...ENOUGH GRAUPEL GROWTH MAY BE REALIZED FOR A FEW
DISCHARGES SO WILL MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.
WARMING TREND EXPECTED LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ALONG WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. WITH CENTRAL U.S. OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE WEEK...SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF WEEKEND SYSTEM
WITH PROLONGED COASTAL REGION LOWER LEVEL RIDGING. GREATER
MOISTURE RETURN PROGD LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
INCREASE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAIN
EVENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 64 44 71 49 / 0 0 10 0
HOBART OK 66 42 70 48 / 0 0 30 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 46 72 50 / 0 0 10 20
GAGE OK 65 40 70 44 / 0 0 20 0
PONCA CITY OK 63 41 72 48 / 0 0 10 0
DURANT OK 67 47 72 52 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
223 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND BRING A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS FROM CANADA
THAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM...AS EXPECTED...THE REGION IS SEEING CONVECTION
POPPING UP ON RADAR IMAGERY...AS SBCAPE HAS INCREASED TO 1500-2500
J/KG AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS HAVE BEEN MADE. FORCING IS STILL SUBTLE
OVERALL...BUT WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTN AND EVENING PROGRESSES.
THE RAP SHOWS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KTS...WITH 30-40 KTS
ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. IN THAT AREA...THE SHEAR AND INSTBY WILL
COMBINE FOR A BETTER SEVERE STORM THREAT...WITH SUPERCELL-LIKE
STORMS POSSIBLE. SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FROM BUNCOMBE COUNTY NORTH AND EAST UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING. TO
THE SOUTH...GIVEN THE STRONG INSTBY...EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AS WELL.
THIS EVENING...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE NC MTNS FROM THE WEST...WHILE AN AREA OF DECENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE WILL SET UP WITHIN A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET
STREAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING ELCAPE OF 800-1500 J/KG
WITH IMPROVING SHEAR. CAMS AREA ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MAXIMUM
OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING. SO POPS ARE MAXIMIZED IN THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FROM 0-6Z...THEN START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THRU DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
TUESDAY...THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL SHIFT EAST...BUT
PERIODS OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DPVA WILL CONTINUE AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. A SFC
COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE MORNING...AND
LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-85. BULK SHEAR LOOKS
BETTER THAN MONDAY...BUT THE BETTER CAPE WILL BE TO THE EAST AS DRY
AIR STARTS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST. A DAY 2 MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IS
JUST TO OUR EAST. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHORT RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST HOLDS A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO OUR
RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME. ON TUESDAY...A SURFACE WAVE SHOULD
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH COMBINED
WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROF SHOULD HELP TO SLOWLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. UPPER FORCING WILL BE WEAK
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY COMES AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE
WESTERLY...WHICH DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
COVERAGE. WE MAY BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED PRECIP COVERAGE BUT
WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY...PRECIP
PROB DIMINISHES AND MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE FCST REFLECTS THIS
DOWNWARD TREND...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE TO OUR EAST. IN SPITE OF THE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH...THIS MID/UPPER SYSTEM HAS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE...THUS PRECIP CHANCES WERE CUT BACK IN MOST
PLACES. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LINGERING CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
IN THE EVENING...BUT THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A SMALL CHANCE ONLY
NEAR THE TN BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
MODELS SUGGEST A RELATIVE LULL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT WAVE
AND THE ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE UPPER LOW
FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY...ACCOUNTING
FOR AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES NEAR THE TN BORDER. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD BREAK CONTAINMENT AND MOVE OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT IN
THE EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORT CENTER. IN ITS
WAKE...PRECIP CHANCES TAPER BACK TO THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
PASSES...WITH A COOL-DOWN BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INITIAL
WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM MONDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK
WILL BE THE BIG COOL-DOWN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW
ROLLS DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE
MODELS HAVE A COOLER TREND FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY SO ABOUT A
CATEGORY WAS CUT OFF...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO SOMETHING ON
THE ORDER OF TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD EXPAND
OUTWARD FROM THE TN BORDER DURING THE DAY WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTING SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...PERHAPS LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE TN BORDER RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
THE COLDEST AIR AT MID LEVELS DRIFTING OVERHEAD EARLY THURSDAY...
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6K FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE FROM
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTERN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT SHOULD SPELL DRY WEATHER
WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY RETURNING TOWARD NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP RAPIDLY THIS
AFTN...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN. GIVEN
THE SHOTGUN APPEARANCE ON RADAR...TIMING WHEN CELLS WILL IMPACT
STILL TOO UNCERTAIN...SO WILL GO WITH FOUR HOUR TEMPO FROM 18-22Z.
THE INSTBY IS FAIRLY ROBUST...SO GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL THREAT WILL
EXIST WITH THE AFTN ACTIVITY. LATER THIS EVENING...STORMS FROM THE
WEST ARE EXPECT TO CROSS THE AREA...AS MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION WELL PASSED SUNSET. WILL CONTINUE THE PREVAILING
TSRA WITH LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF IN THE 6-9Z TIME FRAME. LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT LATE
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SW DIRECTION THRU THE
PERIOD...WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...BUT MAINLY
GUSTS WILL BE WITH CONVECTION.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT ABOVE. HAVE VCTS AND/OR TEMPO FOR TSRA
THIS AFTN...AS RADAR ECHOES ARE BLOSSOMING QUICKLY. MORE STORMS WILL
ENTER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...WITH MOISTURE AND
FORCING SUPPORTING CONVECTION WELL PAST SUNSET. PREVAILING TSRA AND
PROB30 FOR TS THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WINDS WILL FAVOR A S TO
SW DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SWITCHING TO NW AROUND 6Z AT
KAVL AS A FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GET HUNG UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THRU 18Z TUESDAY. AS FOR FOG AND/OR
STRATUS...GUIDANCE IS MIXED...BUT I EXPECT THAT IF WE GET WIDESPREAD
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND SOME CLEARING OF MID CLOUDS AND PRECIP ENDS
BEFORE DAYBREAK...MAY SEE MORE IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS. WILL GO
WITH MVFR FOR NOW. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...AFTN SHRA/TSRA EXPECT AGAIN TUESDAY...BUT MOSTLY EAST OF
THE MTNS. DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT
THRU THU...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY TO THE MTNS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 98% HIGH 86% HIGH 80%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 91% MED 71% HIGH 83%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 80% MED 75% HIGH 81%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 91% HIGH 85% HIGH 80%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 89% MED 70% HIGH 84%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 87% MED 62% HIGH 86%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1242 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO WX/POP/QPF GRIDS TO TRY AND IMPROVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS OF MORNING SHOWERS AND LIKELY HEAT OF THE
DAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LEAVING TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL BE INTO ND LATER THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM RADARS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP ON LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ND...MOVING SOUTHWARD. AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND EVEN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
SD. LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TODAY...BUT A FEW MEMBERS BRING THINGS INTO
THE JAMES VALLEY. IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS AN EVEN
FURTHER EASTWARD PUSH IN ACTIVITY TODAY AND BRINGS A LINE OF SHOWERS
INTO THE JAMES VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISO/WDLY SCT
AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN CWA TOWARDS I-29.
COOL POCKET OF 500 MB TEMPS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY ALLOWING FOR
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE HRRR CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF THIS EASTWARD PUSH IS A TREND THAT
CONTINUES. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...HAVE SLID POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST
TODAY...BUT KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD PROVIDE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS SO KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...MAKING WAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND LONGEVITY OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
HIGHS. KEPT WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THEY
WILL BE LEAST IMPACTED BY THESE VARIABLES. HIGHS COULD PUSH 70
THERE. 60S ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE BUT RANGE OF 60S ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP DURATION/FREQUENCY. TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN MILD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS A
NICE SURGE OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT 925/850 MB MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. WILL ALSO HAVE GOOD MIXING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST HELPING
TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS DAMPENED AS A
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY SWINGS ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
WITH DECENT WAA IN PLACE...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. THAT SAID...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF SOUTH DAKOTA. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR
IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE TERMINAL
OF KPIR WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING REDUCE VISIBILITIES
DUE TO THE SHOWERS. A FEW MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TAFS UPDATES WILL
REFLECT THE CHANGING CONDITIONS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1215 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
THE MAIN FEATURE TODAY IS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THIS LOW DOWN INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS IS
EVIDENCED BY FOLLOWING THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL QG FORCING. MOISTURE
IS FAIRLY DEEP WITH THIS SYSTEM IN OUR FAR WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY AROUND THE CHAMBERLAIN AREA...WHERE HIGH
END SCATTERED POPS ARE WARRANTED. BUT HEADING EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDLE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...THE MOISTURE PROFILE SHALLOWS OUT AS YOU
MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE WAVE. THIS WARRANTS JUST LOW END
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED POPS. IN OUR WEST...THE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER TO WARRANT A MENTION OF TSRA.
A SECOND FEATURE WHICH IS INTERESTING IS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
I 29 CORRIDOR. THE VARIOUS MODELS SHOW ABOUT A 75MB THICK CU DECK
CENTERED NEAR 750MB IN THAT STRIPE...WITH THE MOISTURE MORE SHALLOW
IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN ZONES FROM WINDOM TO STORM LAKE. BELIEVE WITH
THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND REMAINING UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW...
THAT WE WILL CU UP THIS AFTERNOON FROM I 29 EASTWARD...AND THE
MOISTURE DEPTH COULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I 29. THERE IS A SUBTLE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
NOTED AT 500MB VERY CLOSE TO SIOUX FALLS AT 00Z TUE...MAXIMIZED
WHERE THE AIR ALOFT IS THE COLDEST. WITH THE MID AND UPPER FLOW
SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST AT SIOUX CITY...KEPT KSUX DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I 29 COULD HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM ABOUT 3PM TO 6PM. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS...AS WELL AS THE ARW AND NMM.
OTHERWISE OVERALL THOUGH...WITH LIGHT WINDS IT WILL BE A NICE DAY
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE. FOR TONIGHT...IT
SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL AS OUR WESTERN WAVE DEPARTS LEAVING A RISK OF
SOME EARLY EVENING SHOWERS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THE HEATING DRIVEN
CUMULUS NEAR I 29 WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY. LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
TUESDAY ANOTHER STEP IN THE WARMER DIRECTION WITH A HEALTHY WESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD DROPPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCRAPING UP ALONG NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
CWA BORDER TOWARD EVENING...WHICH WILL GIVE A FULL DAY OF MIXING FOR
THE AREA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EARLY...BUT LOOK FOR A GREATER DEGREE
OF CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
MIXED VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A TAIL OF DIV Q WILL
BRUSH THROUGH SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE COULD BE ENOUGH TO ENTICE A FEW MORE WELL DEVELOPED
CUMULUS AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT LATE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUD LAYER STRUGGLING TO REACH -10C...LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH ICE PROCESS EVEN WITH 100-200 MLCAPE TO THREATEN ANY
LIGHTNING.
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH...ANY MAYBE A TOUCH STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE AS 20
TO 30 KNOTS IN WITHIN 1 KFT OF SURFACE DURING POST FRONTAL COLD
ADVECTION PERIOD...SO ADDED A TERRAIN ENHANCED 3-5 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE NIGHT. BLENDED IN TYPICALLY BETTER
CONSRAW MODEL DATA...AND EVEN THIS KEPT READINGS A BIT HIGHER TO
MATCH EXPECTED BREEZIER AREAS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SETTLE IN FOR A PLEASANT AND DRY PERIOD AS
OMEGA BLOCK BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE MID CONUS. SLIGHT COOLING
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE HEART OF THE AREA BY
EVENING...AND STILL OPEN FOR SOME BREEZIER NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY IN PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA. RIDGE LINGERS EAST OF I 29
ACROSS MAINLY NW IA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN FAVORING SOME OF THE
COLDER GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I 29. MORE SUN...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMING OFF SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN BOOST
READINGS INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO NUDGE EASTWARD OVER THE AREA...EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS WITH A FEW 80 DEGREES READINGS POPPING UP...BUT ALSO LIKELY
DEALING WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS.
THE OVERALL SITUATION BECOMES MUCH MORE MUDDLED BY THE WEEKEND...
WITH OMEGA BLOCK WEAKENING/BREAKDOWN SUBTLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS. MAIN DIFFERENCE LOOKS TO BE HOW STRONG HUDSON BAY
LOW MAINTAINS...AND WHAT KICK WAVE SLIDING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
GIVES TO EASTERN UPPER WAVE PORTION OF OMEGA BLOCK. IMPACT FOR OUR
AREA IS HOW AGGRESSIVELY A LOWER TO MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF/CANADIAN STRONGEST WITH WAVE FLATTENING RIDGE AND FASTEST AND
FURTHEST SOUTHWARD WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION...WHILE GFS A BIT MORE
LEISURELY IN PUSHING BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION ON
EVENTUAL PRECIPITATION THREAT BETWEEN SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS
PARTICULARLY WET THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...AND ECMWF QUICKLY SENDING
FOCUS MORE TOWARD I 80. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP FROM ANY STRONG
CONSENSUS AROUND THE REGION...AND AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY TRENDED FROM
FAIRLY BLANKETED UNIFORM POPS TO SHOW A BIT OF A LESSER CHANCE NORTH
VS. SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WESTERN UPPER LOW BEGINS A
WOBBLE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... AND
LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN/THUNDER DEVELOP JUST
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MORE
PREVALENT CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING BACK SEASONABLE 60S
ON SUNDAY.
WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP ONE EYE ON FRONTAL PROGRESSION ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF DECENT INSTABILITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY
AND POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE LOCALIZED SHEAR...MAINLY LOWER IN THE
WIND PROFILE...COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS IN THE
AREA OF THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 20Z ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. COULD SEE A MARGINAL WIND THREAT AS FAR EAST
AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...BT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
249 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH TUPELO AND IS JUST ABOUT
READY TO EXIT THE MIDSOUTH. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
HAS BEEN ON A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPS
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 WHERE RAIN IS OCCURING TO MID 60S OVER NE
AR...TO OVER 70 ACROSS MONROE COUNTY.
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...MAYBE A
TSTM OVER NE MS...WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 AS ONE LAST
UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. AFTER THAT EXPECT GENERALLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON
TUESDAY WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE AND
TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER TROF WILL DROP INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...BUT NOT
TERRIBLY CONFIDENT IN THIS. THE UPPER TROF SWEEPING THROUGH SHOULD
HELP CLEAR SKIES OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DROP OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH REGION. A QUICK
WARMUP INTO THE MID 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WINDS BRIEFLY TURNS
WSW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TN
RIVER MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN CLEARING
SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MID 40S POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...MIDSOUTH LOCATED IN THE SWEET SPOT OF
A SLOW MOVING OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN. UPPER LOW INFLUENCE CONTINUES
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND LOWS FRIDAY MORNING 45 TO 50.
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB TOWARD 80 THIS WEEKEND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMING INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS POINT TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROF.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD CLEARED TUP AT 17Z. MIDSOUTH TAF SITES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE ALONG ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A UTA/TUP LINE THIS AFTERNOON. 16Z RUC AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE
ONLY ISOLATED SHRA THEREAFTER.
REGARDING CIGS...EXPECT NARROW CORRIDOR OF IFR ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MS RIVER TO LIFT EAST OF MEM...EXPOSING MVFR CIGS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THEREAFTER.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
140 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A DEEP UPPER LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL SAG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
APPALACHIANS KEEPING AN UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
WILL BE LAUNCHING AN 18Z RNK SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. RAISED
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE EAST A FEW DEGREES.
SHAPED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE 4KM NAM. CONVECTION IS
START TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AS
EXPECTED WITH HRRR AND NAM. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 954 AM EDT MONDAY...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG HAS ENDED. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFTING AND MIXING OUT THIS
MORNING. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GREENBRIER COUNTY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS FOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED LIS
AROUND MINUS 4 TO MINUS 6 AND CAPES ABOUT 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
SUPPORT ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION. THE LATEST DAY ONE
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK PLACES MUCH OF CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. LEANED POPS TOWARDS THE
HIRESW- ARW AND HRRR FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MORE CHANGES
LATER THIS MORNING.
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...
AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS WEATHERWISE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
MAIN CONCERNS BEING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. OVERALL...EXPECTING GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE
TODAY THAN OBSERVED SUNDAY...ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES DRAPED
ATOP THE FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND...ALL
EMANATING FROM A PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD IN
RESPONSE TO REPEATED DISTURBANCES...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WITH
COLD POOL OUTFLOW...AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW ALL THE WHILE
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY 00Z THIS EVENING...EXPECT
THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN TN INTO EASTERN WV AND CENTRAL
MD. EXPECTING AMPLE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL
PUSH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY MID-
LATE AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S AND PWATS NEARING
1.5 INCH AND AT LEAST WEAK SHEAR...AND A WEAKLY DIFFLUENT UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. AS
A RESULT...SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MUCH OF THE CWA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHEAR/HELICITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH THE BETTER OF SUCH LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN VA/MD/DC AREA...WHERE SPC HAS INDICATED A 5 PERCENT RISK
OF TORNADOES. MAIN THREATS IN OUR AREA...AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST
FEW DAYS...SHOULD BE HAIL AND SOME WIND DAMAGE WITH DCAPES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. 500MB TEMPS ARE COOLING TOWARD
-20C THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE FREEZING LEVEL IS RELATIVELY LOW.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS. THIS ISSUE IS ADDRESSED BELOW IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION...GENERALLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO MIDDLE TN/NORTHERN AL.
THUS...WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AFTER 18Z
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SPREADING SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE IN THE 22Z-04Z TIME FRAME.
WITH NO WEDGE IN PLACE TODAY AND SOME INSOLATION
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARM
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. TEMPS SUN WERE QUITE WARM AS THE WEDGE BROKE
MUCH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING NEAR
+12C AGAIN TODAY...IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...70S WEST TO LOWER 80S
EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT COULD SEE SOME
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY PRESENT...DUE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S IN THIS AREA. THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES TOWARD THE COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW
LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S.
BY WEDNESDAY..A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH FROM HUDSON
BAY IN CANADA TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. THE MODELS INSIST THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A CUT OFF LOW DURING
THURSDAY...WHILE ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE PLAINS
BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...THIS OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SHOULD BLOCK THE
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. DUE TO THE CLOSED LOW
OVERHEAD...EXPECT GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL...IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT FEEL LIKE THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY
TOWARD THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TUMBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. 85H
TEMPS OF 0 TO +5 DEG C ARE PROGGED TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND IF THIS VERIFIES...IT WILL SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS THE UPPER
LOW PASSES OVERHEAD...COLD POOL ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING FOR A DAILY THREAT OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS.
CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT PER BLOCKY LOOK TO THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN...WITH CUTOFF LOWS ON THE WEST AND EAST COASTS AND
A RIDGE UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. UNLIKE THE LAST OMEGA BLOCK
WHERE THE MID ATLANTIC ENJOYED UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...JUST THE OPPOSITE IS OCCURRING THIS GO
ROUND.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE MODELS INDICATE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EAST TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
MODERATING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
ATTM...WEEKEND AS A WHOLE LOOKS DRY. WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INSTABILITY...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE MUCH COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT MONDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED AS SLOW MOVING FRONT
COMBINES WITH UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMANATING FROM SOUTHERN
PLAINS UPPER LOW.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FORMING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE PRECIPITATION AREA.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER IN THE WEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR WITH SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WSW-W
AFTER THUNDERSTORMS PASS WITH SOME LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT BEHIND CONVECTION.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE MID ATLANTIC IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS...VSBYS...AND WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL IMPROVE MVFR CONDITION TO VFR CONDITIONS. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ARRIVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY...AND
SETTLE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK. OVERALL...FLYING
CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER POOR FOR LATE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS...PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND PATCHY FOG.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1223 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS/TEMPERATURES AND THEN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
AMONG THE 02.00Z RUNS AND WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED APPROACH.
FOR TODAY...A SHORT-WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...KEEPING PRECIP WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO HOME...RAP/GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING TO EVENTUALLY FILL-IN WITH BROKEN
THERMAL CUMULUS. COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES FROM THIS CLOUD DECK
GIVEN HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS UP TO AT LEAST 500 HPA...NOT
EXPECTING ANY MEANINGFUL SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY...BUT SPRINKLES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER TODAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 60S.
THERMAL CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 HPA TEMPERATURES RISE TO BETWEEN +13 AND
+15 CELSIUS RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WI TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90.
BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO DEEPENS TO AROUND 800 HPA WITH ROUGHLY 25 TO
30 KTS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 30 MPH OR MORE. ELSEWHERE...
EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
25 MPH.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF 100 KT 300
HPA JET STREAK WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS PROGRESSING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. AS A RESULT...INCREASED POPS TO 80 PERCENT LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW 100-200 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. WITH A
COOLER WEDNESDAY (HIGHS UPPER 50S/60S) IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY
NIGHT/S FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE EACH DAY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGHS BY FRIDAY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
70S AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500 HPA RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CONUS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH AND A FOUR CORNERS
CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES
AT THIS POINT TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
BROKEN CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 5KFT WILL SCATTER OUT BY SUNSET.
PLAN ON WEST WINDS INCREASING BY LATER TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 10
TO 15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT BY 14-15Z.
WILL BE WATCHING FOR STRONGER/GUSTIER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THAT FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH. ALSO LOOKING FOR A BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD T TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. MORE DETAIL WILL BE PROVIDED WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...DAS