Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/30/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION

NWS LITTLE ROCK AR

1230 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION... 04/28/2016 06Z

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH BEFORE
BECOMING EASTERLY BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN AND VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST.
&&

.UPDATE...

SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THE FORECAST AND REDUCE CLOUD COVER. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKED
GOOD.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH AR. THEN NEXT
CHANCE OF STORMS LATER FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

DID LOWER AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE STATE DUE TO LACK OF
LIFT...BUT STILL KEPT SOME IN DUE TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH. THE FRONT WAS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN OK...WITH A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO THE OK AND AR STATE LINE. SO FAR HAVE SEE
SOME CU DEVELOPMENT BUT HAS BEEN LIMITED IN ITS COVERAGE. SW
SURFACE WINDS HAVE KEPT DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WHILE MORNING KLIT SOUNDING DID HAVE A PACKET OF DRIER AIR
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 7K FEET. DUE TO LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL LIFT CONVECTION HAS HELD OFF SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ESPECIALLY THE HRRR SHOWS VERY LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH AR. ALOFT
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN KS...WITH THE
MAIN DYNAMICS HAVING LIFTED TO THE NE OF AR. TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE FORECAST WILL START WITH A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE
FIRST PERIOD...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AR
THIS LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. FACTORS HAVE LOWERED FOR ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT. TONIGHT
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES OUT OF AR...A BIT COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FILTER IN OVER AR ON THURSDAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND MILD
DAY WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
WILL START THEN THE WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH OF AR WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
AS SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOCK THE
LOW PRESSURE FROM MAKING MUCH EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AND
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY.

A FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY BUT WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY
AND BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARD WESTERN
ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH ARKANSAS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 70S AND 80S.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PHOENIX AZ

1035 PM MST WED APR 27 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MOST SIGNIFICANT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MORE SEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER QUIET EVENING ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA...AS WE AWAIT THE
ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM...THAT IS JUST NOW MOVING
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CA. CURRENT REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
A LINE OF SHOWERS...AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW
CENTER MOVING ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY INTO MOHAVE COUNTY...JUST
TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT IS
SHOWING THESE SHOWERS/TS CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST...REMAINING MAINLY
TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THU
AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD TO THE COLORADO RIVER...THEN
BEGINS TO TURN TO THE NE AS IT MOVES ACROSS NW AZ. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT WILL BE TO BRING
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF SE CA...WITH WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN A FEW SPOTS...WITH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER SW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. GIVEN
THESE UPDATED FORECASTS AND CURRENT SHORT-TERM TRENDS...INHERITED
FORECASTS ARE LOOKING GOOD THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY THU...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
MODERATE MID/UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN
ABOUT 2-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD TOP OUT
RIGHT NEAR FORECAST VALUES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND IS SPORTING A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE VORT MAX. THIS SYSTEM WILL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
TOWARD US TONIGHT RATHER QUICKLY AND MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT BY
TOMORROW MORNING. PRIMARY IMPACT STILL APPEARS TO BE THE WINDS BUT
NOT EXPECTING THEM TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT NOR CAUSE MANY PROBLEMS.
ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE FLUX WILL SKIRT OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA TO WARRANT A MENTION OF RAIN BUT AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT.
WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SREF OUTPUT
INDICATE DECENT PROBABILITY /30-50 PERCENT/ FOR MODEST INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE ABOVE 500 J/KG/ AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...RECENT GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS WEREN/T AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURE WILL GET KNOCKED DOWN AGAIN...5-10 DEGREES
FROM TODAY BUT THAT SHOULDN/T CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS BY ITSELF.

FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER RECOVERY DAY AS THE LOW SPINS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT YET ANOTHER ONE IS ON ITS HEELS AND WILL MOVE IN
SATURDAY. WHILE PREVIOUS SHIFTS WERE NOTING VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS
THAT APPEARS TO HAVE DISAPPEARED NOW AS THE GEFS/SREF SOLUTIONS ARE
PRETTY MUCH IN-LINE WITH EACH OTHER AND THE DETERMINISTIC GFS HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER SOLUTION. JUST LIKE THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS...THIS ONE WILL LEAD TO BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER WITH SOME
SHOWERS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. OVERALL NOT A VERY IMPACTFUL SYSTEM.

BEYOND THERE IS AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN STATES WHICH WILL IMPART A WARMING TREND ON OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AND CLIMBING A BIT MORE
AFTER THAT. STILL NOT SEEING PHOENIX OR YUMA/S FIRST TRIPLE DIGIT
ANYWHERE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECASTS INDICATING THAT ANOTHER TROUGH LIES IN THE DISTANCE.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS BLOWING FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SE-LY
WINDS AT KIWA LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS TO PRIMARILY STAY IN THE 10-
15 KNOT RANGE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THU BEFORE DIMINISHING ON THU
EVENING. SCT-BKN CIGS TO REMAIN IN THE 10-12K FOOT RANGE...WITH
LOWER FEW-SCT LAYERS IN THE 5-6K FOOT RANGE DEVELOPING DURING THE
DAY ON THU. THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD AFFECT
ONE...OR MORE OF THE PHX AREA TERMINALS ON THU AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PUT ANYTHING MORE THAN VCSH IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG WINDS TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE AT THE SE CA TAF SITES...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS LIKE TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU AS THE MAIN
JET/STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT PASS OVER THE REGION. WINDS TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ON THU AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW AFFECTING THE REGION BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT TO THE NE. DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AT BOTH SE CA TERMINALS...WITH JUST FEW-SCT MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
LAYERS PASSING OVER THE REGION.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
KEEP THE DISTRICT NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THEN FALLING TO COOLER THAN
AVERAGE SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING MARKEDLY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE PASSING WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM...WINDS WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SEASONABLY MOIST AS COMPARED TO
NORMAL WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND A 15 TO
25 PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED PRIMARILY TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY FORM OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST
THREAT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. MUCH
LESS WIND EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/INIGUEZ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...MO/CB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

627 PM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure moving through the Great Basin will produce gusty
winds and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for parts
of the area this weekend. Warmer weather is expected early next
week as high pressure returns. Another low pressure system could
bring showers and cooler conditions to the area late next week.

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-MON)

Main impacts in the next 48-hours will be winds and isolated
mountain and desert convection. Low pressure was starting to form
over southwest Oregon this afternoon and will drop due southward
across southeast California by Saturday afternoon. Locally gusty
west winds across the Antelope Valley should increase overnight
and Saturday as a rather dry cold front moves across the area.
Moisture does stack up in northerly upslope near the Grapevine
for a few rain/snow showers there early Saturday. Also, a weak
Sundowner wind event will kick in west of Goleta along the south
Santa Barbara County coast around sunset this evening lasting until
the early morning hours. Otherwise, the marine layer and Catalina
eddy will result in low clouds and patchy fog for most coastal
areas and nearby valleys late tonight and Saturday morning.

Saturday afternoon the winds veer to northerly across the
mountains and desert, but do not extend southward much so don`t
anticipate much of a wind issue for valleys or coastal areas.
Winds may drop below advisory level fairly early tomorrow but have
extended it through the day. Slight instability over the Los
Angeles County mountains and Antelope Valley supports isolated
thunderstorm potential Saturday afternoon.

Cyclonic flow persists over southwest California on Sunday as
another piece of the trough rotates southward across the state.
Cape values increase to over 1000 j/kg across the mountains on
Sunday and if some added lift moves overhead as indicated, there
should be a greater risk of a thunderstorm in the afternoon.

Warming aloft begins Sunday night and Monday as high pressure
nudges toward the state. Expect Sunday to be the best weekend day
with lighter winds and rebounding temperatures. High pressure
ridge will become more entrenched on Monday with several degrees
of additional warming expected.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

The ridge will advance eastward quickly with southwest flow aloft
developing over the area on Tuesday. Some higher level moisture
and clouds may reach the coast by Tuesday afternoon, otherwise
temperatures will be similar to Monday. An upper level front
slides over southwest California late Wednesday with the start of
cooling and additional cloud cover. Model consensus of a large and
slow-moving low pressure trough remains on-track for late in the
week, therefore, forecaster confidence is moderate to high. Just
a matter of timing for when the rain will begin over our region
but right now looks like late Thursday afternoon or maybe
Thursday night. The GFS model pushes the low pressure system
eastward faster than ECM or Canadian models and there are signs of
another closed low pressure system on the east coast blocking up
the entire pattern. Forecast trends are to keep the region fairly
unsettled Fri-Sun of next week with cooler than normal
temperatures. Have increased the chance of precipitation to high
chances on days 6-7.

.AVIATION...29/2345Z...

Marine layer at LAX at 2300Z is 3500 feet deep and the inversion
top is at 5500 feet with a temp of 11.4 degrees C.

Another cold upper level low pressure system will dig
southeastward across interior California tonight into Saturday.
This system will reinforce the upper level northwest winds
across the forecast area. Closer to the surface...strong onshore
flow and an eddy circulation will maintain a deep marine layer
pattern into Saturday, with low clouds and fog spreading into
most coastal/valley areas. Gusty winds vcnty KSBA will generate
moderate uddfs and llws this evening.

KLAX...SCT-BKN015 conditions through the early evening hours
then MVFR cigs likely tonight into Saturday morning, with a
30 percent chance of cigs lingering into the afternoon hours.
Eddy circulation will generate se-e winds 5 to 8 knots overnight
into Saturday morning, with a 20 percent chance of reaching 10
knots.

KBUR...High probability of mvfr cigs reaching KBUR overnight into
Saturday morning.

.MARINE...29/200 PM...

Northwest winds and seas 10 feet or greater will create small
craft advisory conditions from Piedras Blancas to San Clemente
Island today with gale gusts tonight. Seas over 10 feet and small
craft advisory for hazadous sea conditions from Piedras Blancas to
San Clemente Island will exist through Saturday night as gales
north of the area persist. otherwise sca conditions are not
expected Sunday through Thursday. But a south swell will likely
arrive Saturday and extra currents and surging as well as
hazardous surf are likely along exposed south facing shores.

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Sunday evening For
zones 34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 4 AM PDT Saturday For zones
39-52. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Saturday morning
through Sunday evening For zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Saturday For zones
53-54-59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Saturday For
zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening
For zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 9 AM PDT Saturday For zones
670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
For zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

PUBLIC...Boldt
AVIATION...Gomberg
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...Sukup

weather.gov/losangeles

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
607 PM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
A band of showers and storms has developed as anticipated,
although the timing is a bit faster than earlier anticipated. The
band currently extends from near Westwood ESE through Reno/Sparks
and into NW Nye County. The heaviest showers and storms are from
Portola to Reno/Sparks. Rainfall up to 1/3" is possible with these
storms along with small hail. Rain will be snow above 7000 feet
with some light accumulation. The intensity will permit some breif
accumulation on road surfaces so those traveling over
Donner/Echo/Mt. Rose summits should be prepared for slushy roads.

Have updated the forecast to increase pops through tonight based
on latest trends. HRRR overall is handling the basic idea and
trend of the convection, but it has been too slow. Latest run
seems to be catching up. Still, it adds confidence to the band
holding together as it moves south. This could be more of an issue
for Mono County overnight with higher elevations and a couple
inches on highway 395, especially over Conway and Devils Gate
Summits. Wallmann

.SYNOPSIS...
A quick moving low pressure system will drop into western Nevada
later today bringing cooler conditions, showers, and gusty northeast
winds through Saturday. Showers and a few thunderstorms may continue
Sunday and Monday, with more unsettled weather possible later next
week.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 110 PM PDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Main change to the ongoing forecast was to issue
Lake Wind Advisories for Saturday for Lake Tahoe, Pyramid Lake,
and lakes in Mono County, including but not limited to Crowley.

We are still forecasting a quick moving inside slider to drop into
western Nevada this evening and into Saturday that will bring
gusty winds, colder temperatures, and a quick burst of rain/snow
showers. Main concerns are for gusty winds and light snow
accumulations, especially for visitors and fisherman participating
in opening day (fishmas) in California.

The main cold front will push past the Interstate 80 corridor
between midnight to 4am and bring a quick burst of rain/snow
showers. Snow levels will quickly be forced down to all valley
floors with the cold front, but snow is unlikely to accumulate in
western Nevada unless the front stalls out (low probability at
this time). Roads may be slick for the early morning, with little
to no accumulation. But as the front drops south into Mono and
Mineral counties a quick burst of snow accumulations up to 2
inches will be possible between 4am- 6am, especially along Highway
395.

Gusty winds will also accompany this cold front, with brisk
northeast flow expected to create choppy conditions on area lakes
Saturday. Valley wind gusts 30 to 40 MPH will be possible while
Sierra ridge gusts will be in the 60-80 MPH range. Lake Wind
Advisories are in effect, so if you have plans on area lakes late
tonight into Saturday be prepared for choppy conditions.

Low pressure system will hang back over the Great Basin on Sunday
and Monday which will keep slight chances for showers across the
Sierra. Light, east flow will also keep temperatures on the cool
side through the remainder of the weekend. -Edan

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...

For Tue-Wed, the eastern Sierra and western NV should have somewhat
of a break between systems but residual moisture and southerly flow
could result in light showers for the Sierra and also for northeast
CA (north of Susanville) and northwest NV (north of Gerlach), with
snow levels likely staying above 8,000 to 9,000 feet MSL.

For Thur-Fri, forecast confidence is increasing that an offshore
trough will slowly move west across CA/NV. However, there are still
important model differences on the track of the upper Low. Little
change was made to the ongoing forecast reflecting a gradual
increase in showers and a slight cooling trend for the second half
of the week. JCM

AVIATION...

West to northwest flow increasing surface-aloft this afternoon ahead
of cold front dropping south across the region. Surface wind gusts
to 20-25kt and ridge top gusts to 40-45kt are expected ahead of the
cold front. Winds become gusty north to northeast winds after the
cold frontal passage and continue Saturday with gusts 25-30kt at
terminals and 55-65kt on ridges. Expect moderate turbulence this
evening through Saturday especially over and near the Sierra.

A cold front and band of showers will reach KSVE-KWMC line by late
afternoon and then spread across the Tahoe Basin and west central NV
this evening, finally reaching Mono-Mineral Counties after midnight.
A brief period of MVFR cigs/vsby will accompany this band of showers
with terrain obscurement along the eastern Sierra slopes overnight
into Saturday morning. Some light snow is possible for the Sierra
terminals although accumulations on runways are expected to be less
than an inch. JCM

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM PDT Saturday NVZ002-004.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM PDT Saturday CAZ072-073.

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

1036 PM PDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS....ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NEAR THE WEST COAST AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
THE HILLS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW TRACKING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA TODAY TOUCHED OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA. THE
MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED OVER RURAL AREAS OF THE FAR
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ENDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT ABOUT 2:15 PM
THIS AFTERNOON A THUNDERSTORM DROPPED MARBLE SIZED HAIL NEAR THE
SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY TOWN OF SAN ARDO. THEN...AT ABOUT 2:25 PM
A THUNDERSTORM SPAWNED A WATERSPOUT ON LAKE BERRYESSA IN EASTERN
NAPA COUNTY. ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDED OR MOVED OUT OF OUR
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THE PRESENT TIME RADAR SHOWS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
END BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

BLUSTERY CONDITIONS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASED BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM. LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH WERE OBSERVED NEAR THE COAST. WINDS HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY DECREASING EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY NEAR THE OCEAN.

THE MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC NW
ON FRIDAY AND THEN DIG SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LOCALLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR
OUR COAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE HILLS FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT...WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN
THE HILLS. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED TO DRAW
ATTENTION TO THESE POTENTIALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL EASE
IN THE HILLS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN PICK UP ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL BRING A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
INTO OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. DRY OFFSHORE WINDS COMBINED WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING JUST OFFSHORE WILL MEAN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO THE 80S BY SUNDAY...BOTH INLAND AND LOCALLY NEAR THE
COAST.

COOLER WEATHER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS...AND SHOWERS MAY RETURN BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:36 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
BE OVER THE SOCAL DESERTS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS OF GUSTY
W-NW WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...GUSTY WEST WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS BECOMING OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AGAIN BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.MARINE...AS OF 9:55 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES AND FRESH
SWELL.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 3 AM

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

930 PM PDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. FAIR WEATHER WILL
RETURN FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY BRINGS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED EARLY THIS
EVENING IN THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...BUT
ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN. A FEW SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP AT MID-EVENING IN WESTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. LOCAL WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH WERE OCCURRING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HRRR HAS
PRECIP INCREASING SHORTLY IN MOST AREAS FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
COAST. THIS WILL BE MORE OF THE STRATIFORM PRECIP VERSUS THE
CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN SBD COUNTY EARLIER AS THE MOIST LAYER SHOULD
DEEPEN TO AROUND 6000-7000 FEET IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND OVER 10000
FEET IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...WITH LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. PRECIP
IN MOST AREAS WILL BE 1/10 INCH OR LESS...BUT ON WEST SLOPES...LOCAL
AMOUNTS OVER 1/4 INCH COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
CONTINUE THURSDAY DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY.
00Z NAM HAS SOME SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN THE SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS UP TO AROUND 600-800 J/KG...SO THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED TSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THOSE
MOUNTAINS. 500 MB TEMPS WILL BE AT/BELOW -20 C...RATHER LOW FOR LATE
APRIL. LITTLE SNOW WILL FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS AS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
MOSTLY AT/ABOVE 7000 FEET.

FAIR WEATHER UNDER WEAK RIDGING SHOULD RETURN FRIDAY...BUT TEMPS
WILL ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES INLAND...WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEAR THE
COAST. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER GREAT BASIN AND INTO
THE MOJAVE DESERT SATURDAY AND WILL BRING MORE COLD AIR ALOFT THOUGH
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. A FEW SHOWERS...OR POSSIBLY A TSTORM OVER
ELEVATED TERRAIN...COULD OCCUR...WITH MOST LIKELY TIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DAYTIME HEATING FROM THE HIGH SUN ANGLE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW MORE SHOWERS SUNDAY UNTIL THE LOW MOVES EAST MONDAY.
SOME RIDGING WILL RETURN AROUND MON/TUE FOR WARMING...WITH TEMPS
POSSIBLY A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL INLAND FOR A CHANGE BY TUE. LATE IN
THE WEEK...A DEEP TROUGH COULD MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA FROM THE PACIFIC
FOR MORE COOL WEATHER WITH POSSIBLE PRECIP.

.AVIATION...
280400Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL THE
COASTAL BASIN OUT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. BASES ARE BETWEEN
1800-2400 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 2500 FT MSL. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AFT 28/0500Z...GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES AND ALONG THE BEACHES. SHRA- MAY DECREASE
VIS TO 5 SM IN SPOTS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 28/0600Z-1800Z.
THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FROM BKN TO SCT BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...LOW CLOUDS WILL OBSCURE VIS ON THE COASTAL
SLOPES TONIGHT MAINLY BETWEEN 2500-4000 FT MSL. HIGH MOUNTAIN PEAKS
WILL ALSO BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS/FOG AT TIMES. WESTERLY WINDS ON THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES AND DESERT SLOPES WILL BE BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY
TONIGHT...THUS CREATING MODERATE UP AND DOWN DRAFTS AND TURBULENCE.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

.MARINE...
900 PM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL SURFACE LATE TONIGHT WHEN GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE
INNER WATERS. COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TO 10 TO 13 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 7 TO 9 FEET IN THE
INNER. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT SHOWERS...WHICH WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

.BEACHES...
900 PM...MODERATE SURF WILL BE INCREASING SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY FROM A BUILDING SHORT PERIOD WEST NORTHWESTERLY SWELL AT 8-
10 SECONDS.

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT THURSDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN MATEO
POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM.

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

914 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SHOWERS DIMINISHING WITH ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SO HAVE ALLOWED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE AS OF 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO FIT
CURRENT TRENDS AND EXPECTED CONDS BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RAP
RUNS.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW HAS BEEN TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A PIECE OF MOIST ENERGY
HAS BEEN SPINNING CCW ACROSS THE CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS
BRINGING STEADY PRECIPITATION TO THE GUNNISON BASIN...ROARING FORK
VALLEY...AND NOW SPREADING INTO THE YAMPA VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO GET TOO FAR PAST THE GRAND MESA AND TAVAPUTS
PLATEAU IN WESTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING...AND IS EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF TONIGHT.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST OF COLORADO ON SATURDAY...EXPECT FEWER
SHOWERS THAN TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR
CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SIGNIFICANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALIGNS WITH H7 WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

THEN THE NEXT UPPER LOW OF WHICH MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING AND INTENSITY...WILL BE SPREADING INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF
PRECIP BY SUNRISE SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE SAN JUAN MTNS AND ABAJO MTNS
SOUTHWARD. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER HIGH...GENERALLY AT OR
ABOVE 8000 FEET MSL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FOUR CORNERS BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY...THEN MEANDER NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
DIFFUSE ON MONDAY...WITH OUR CWA REMAINING UNDER A COL AREA INTO
TUESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY
...WITH A DECREASE IN QPF MOST AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
CWA ON TUESDAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMALS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A DRIER AIRMASS AND A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND AS H7 TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 4 DEGREES C HIGHER THAN
TUESDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY TO BE 6 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY...
ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND TO CA AND
APPROACH OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY. LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE BREEZY PREFRONTAL WINDS ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SOME CONVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP BY LATER AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
AND EASTERN UTAH THROUGH SATURDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY IN THE VCNTY OF SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF IFR
AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY LATE SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JAM/JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

817 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND
THE WEAK UPWARD FORCING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LOW
WILL BE DIMINISHING. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...BUT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIGHT UP TO THIS POINT. AREAS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE HAVE BEEN FREE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS HAS BECOME
SPOTTY...BASED ON A REVIEW OF VARIOUS WEB CAMERAS. THE HRRR AND
RAP MODELS SHOW THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE DECREASING THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACCUMULATING PART OF THE STORM IS
OVER. WILL BE CANCELLING THE ADVISORIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
PALMER DIVIDE AS LITTLE MORE THAN 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...HAVE BUMPED UP THE COVERAGE OF FOG WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDER WEAK NORTHERLY RETURN FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW...AND DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO RE-DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
TOMORROW. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE THAT FORECAST PERIOD
FOR NOW.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED TO A CLOSED LOW PRESENTLY OVER
THE SAN JUAN MTNS IN SWRN COLORADO IS PROGGED TO SWING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AMPLE
MOISTURE AND LIFT NECESSARY TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. PRECIPITATION HAS PRIMARILY BEEN SNOW
SINCE LATE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL POCKETS OF
RAINFALL ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO...SUCH AS THE MODERATE
RAINFALL AT STERLING. HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING
AND ENOUGH SOLAR ENERGY FILTERING THROUGH THE OVERCAST...THERE HAS
NOT BEEN SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE PLAINS...EXCEPT ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE IN DOUGLAS AND ELBERT COUNTIES. RECEIVED A SNOW DEPTH REPORT
OF 14 INCHES NEAR THE TOWN OF MATHESON SOUTHEAST CORNER OF ZONE 41.
THIS LOOKS VERY LOCALIZED. SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THIS ZONE GENERALLY
IN THE 3-8 INCH RANGE. AS FOR THE FRONT RANGE MTNS...FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTH PARK ZONES UNDER THE WINTER STORM WARNING...SNOW ACCUMS WITH
THIS STORM MARGINALLY REACHED WARNING CRITERIA. HIGH COUNTRY ROAD
WAYS ALSO SAW LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

RADAR SHOWS A SHARP SOUTHERN EDGE TO THE PRECIP BAND LIFTING NORTH
OVER NERN COLORADO ATTM. THIS EDGE HAS REACHED SRN LINCOLN COUNTY.
AND IS EXPECTED TO THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR AROUND DENVER BY 02Z
THIS EVENING...AND MUCH SOONER THAN THAT FOR THE LIMON AREA. WITH
COOLING TEMPS AND A LOWERING SUN ANGLE...THERE`S A BETTER FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION ON THE PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE EAST FACE OF THE FRONT
RANGE DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE
FRONT RANGE AND SOUTH PARK WOULD NOT WARRANT HOLDING ONTO THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WOULD SUFFICE. IT`LL STILL
RUN UNTIL 06Z TONIGHT. LASTLY ADDED FOG TO THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. VSBYS ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER MILE TO 4 MILES THROUGH THE EVENING.

ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW STILL IMPACTING NORTHEAST
COLORADO FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE
OF THIS LOW AND A COOL N-NWLY WIND SHOULD KEEP THE FCST AREA
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND UNSETTLED. QG VV FIELDS SHOW A LOBE OF MID-
LEVEL LIFT SWINGING DOWN FROM SERN WYOMING DURING THE MORNING LIKELY
RESULTING IN AN UPTURN IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE NERN
PLAINS AND NRN FRONT RANGE. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A POSSIBILITY.
LATER IN THE DAY...THE CWA GRADUALLY COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.
THERE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD LIKEWISE DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEXT 24 HOURS WELL
BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY 3-6 DEG F WARMER
THAN THOSE TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

THERE WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE AND A
SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER NEAR THE GROUND...SO A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IS IN ORDER. THERE MAY BE WIDESPREAD DRIPPINESS
BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. THERE WAS SOME
THOUGHT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLIER...BUT IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH WARM AND WET ROADS. IF THERE
WERE UPSLOPE WINDS I WOULD BE CONCERNED WITH A RIBBON OF
FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE FOOTHILLS BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
NOT BE THE CASE.

THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT AND DEFINITION OF A WAVE
PASSING OVER AND SOUTH OF US ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE BEST LIFT
SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH...AND IS GENERALLY WEAK...BUT IT WILL BE
WORKING ON A PRETTY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND A SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER. SO IT MAY NOT BE HARD TO GENERATE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION AGAIN. RAISED POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD...NOT READY TO COMMIT TO THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVERYWHERE YET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THEY
ARE NOW AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHTER...SO THERE SHOULD BE LESS
IMPACT THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY. STILL PROBABLY SOME SNOW
THOUGH...AT LEAST ABOVE 5000 FEET. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON
THE CLEARING OF THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY...TRENDS ARE TOWARD MOVING
THE HIGHER LEVEL LIFT OUT EARLY MONDAY BUT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING MUCH OF THE DAY.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER US FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A WRINKLE
THAT DEVELOPED IN LAST NIGHTS ECMWF IS PERSISTING TODAY...A LOW
THAT DEVELOPS OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND DROPS INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
IF THIS DOES OCCUR...AND IT IS A MINORITY OPINION...IT IS PROBABLY
NOT MUCH OF A WEATHER MAKER BUT COULD HOLD BACK THE WARMING AND
GENERATE SOME CLOUD COVER...MAINLY AFFECTING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. PRETTY WARM BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WE COULD BE BACK
NEAR 80. THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS ON A BIG LOW MOVING INTO
THE WEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND...SO WE COULD BE BACK TO COOL AND WET BY
SUNDAY. WAY TOO EARLY FOR ANY CONFIDENCE OR DETAILS YET...A
PACIFIC SYSTEM WOULD PROBABLY NOT BE REAL COLD...LIKELY WARMER
THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 817 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

SNOW APPEARS TO HAVE COME TO AN END OVER THE DENVER AREA
AIRPORTS FOR THE EVENING...BUT CONTINUING WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES. FOG IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS DAYTIME WARMING CAUSES THE AIRMASS TO BECOME
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...DANKERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1124 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

SEVERAL UPDATES THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...TRENDED FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
RADAR TRENDS. RADAR IS SHOWING RETURNS OVER THE CENTRAL...THROUGH
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING. MOST
HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS ARE ON TRACK WITH THIS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AN ELEVATED RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES. INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR HAIL TO
NEAR ONE INCH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. ELSEWHERE...RAIN
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE
GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THE OTHER FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO ADD
ZONE 62...THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY...TO THE WINTER
STORM WATCH. THIS AREA WILL SEE UPSLOPE FLOW UP THE ARKANSAS
RIVER/BIG HORN SHEEP CANYON WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE AN AREA OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS QUITE A BIT COOLER...SO DROPPED HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES. GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA...THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH WARMING WITH
MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS.

SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE RAMPART RANGE...WILL
SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET WITH ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 6000 AND
9000 FEET SEEING 6 TO 12 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE. MOZLEY

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

...SOME SNOW TONIGHT...MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW (AND RAIN) STARTING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER S CALIF AND WAS MOVING IN A E-
SE DIRECTION. LOCALLY...QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE CO
WEST SLOPE AND OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION. THESE SHOWERS WERE DUE
PRIMARILY TO REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...ALTHOUGH THE
SHOWERS OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION ARE DUE IN PART TO INCREASING
UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE MODEST WITH READING IN THE
LOW 60S OVER FAR E CLO WHILE 50S WERE NOTED IN THE PIKES PEAK
REGION. 40S AND 50S WERE NOTED IN THE VALLEYS WITH 30S MAINLY IN THE
MTNS.

TONIGHT...

MAIN CONCERN IS WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP WHICH IS LIKELY GOING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PARTS OF THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THIS IS
GOING TO HAPPEN...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS VARY MODEL TO MODEL. HRRR HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT ON THIS OCCURRING OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION
SINCE I WALKED IN THE DOOR THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH ITS QPF VALUES MAY
BE A BIT HIGH...BELIEVE THIS LOCATION IS REASONABLE AS LLVL UPSLOPE
WILL INCREASE AS PRESSURES START TO FALL AND SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL
WINDS (~700 MB INCREASE). IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COULD OCCUR IN TELLER COUNTY AND 1-3" COULD FALL ON GRASSY AREAS IN
N EL PASO COUNTY. CANT RULE OUT THE ROADS BECOMING SLICK IN SOME
PLACES AS IT HAS BEEN COOL AND THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. LIKEWISE...WE MAY SEE A "NUISANCE " WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
PIKES PEAK REGION TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A
CALIF STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE REGION AND MOISTURE ALOFT
INCREASES. 1-2" OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

THURSDAY...

BY 12Z THURSDAY...THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED VICINITY OF LAS
VEGAS. MODEST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION AND SNOW
AND VALLEY SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE SNOW
WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS THE LOW
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE CENTER
OF THE MID LVL LOW WILL BE LOCATED VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS AND
DEEP S- SW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE. PRECIP WILL START TO
BECOME HEAVIER ACROSS THE S MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DEEP UPSLOPE
FLOW IMPINGES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A THETA-E AXIS MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE OKLA PANHANDLE. THIS THETA-E AXIS WILL
INCREASE THE CAPE OVER THE PLAINS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

WINTER STORM WATCHES GO INTO EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
ALL THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT NOON
TOMORROW...WITH WINTER STORM WATCHES GOING INTO EFFECT OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN (INCLUDING N EL PASO
COUNTY) AT 6 PM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

ACTIVE LONGER PATTERN ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDING BUT NOT
LIMITED TO TEMPERATURES...POPS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AT TIMES
AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION/HIGHER TERRAIN TIGHT GRADIENT SNOW
AMOUNTS.

RECENT LONGER RANGE PV ANALYSIS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT 06Z FRIDAY WILL SHIFT ACROSS
COLORADO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...IMPACTING THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
WET CONDITIONS...INCLUDING HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.

HAVE ISSUED/ADJUSTED/EXPANDED EARLIER WINTER STORM WATCH TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST PROJECTED TRACK/IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A VERY TIGHT SNOW GRADIENT EXPECTED
AROUND 7000 FEET...PRIMARILY FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS NEEDED.

ALSO...SOME STRONGER TO POTENTIALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FRIDAY.

THEN...NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA WITH UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NEXT CLOSED
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AT 00Z SUNDAY SHIFTS INTO
THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY 00Z MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING.

FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES(ESPECIALLY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES) ARE ANTICIPATED INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY LOWER GRADE GRADIENT WINDS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

INCOMING SYSTEM IS ALREADY SPREADING BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CO WITH -SHRA OR VCSH POSSIBLE AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AT KCOS INTO
THE MVFR THEN IFR CATEGORY BY 12Z. KPUB WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY BY 12Z. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN -SHRA FOR THE
TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING
EASTWARD INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS IN
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR
KCOS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS -RA MIXES WITH AND CHANGES OVER THE
-SN AROUND 06Z FRI. KCOS COULD SEE SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. KPUB WILL STAY
AS RAIN THROUGH THE EVENT. KALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR WITH -TSRA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MVFR TO IFR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH -SHSN. -KT

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR COZ058>061-066-068-073-075-080>082.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR COZ062-063-072-074-076>079-084.

UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

739 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MAY EXTEND INTO OUR
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWARD
OFFSHORE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST
TO APPROACH OR MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 50S.
THIS BASIC PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTH FOR A WHILE ON SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWV TROF NOW LOCATED APPROX OVER LAKE ERIE WILL
MOVE ESE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
UVV AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASE SHOWERS AS CAN ALREADY
BE SEEN ON THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MOST
CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE POCONOS, LEHIGH VLY
AND NORTHERN NJ. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THERE ALSO
ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NO MORE THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH OR SO...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FOR PHL AND SOUTH. THE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER
AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ARE EXPECTED.

HAVE LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY OVER SRN AND WRN SECTIONS AT LEAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR GUID.
POPS SHUD BE ZERO OR CLOSE TO IN THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME RIDGING ALOFT BEHIND THE SHRTWV TROF. A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLY MORE SUNSHINE
THAN TODAY. THUS DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER AFTERNOON
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S...EXCEPT COOLER NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COAST SINCE WINDS WILL STILL BE COMING OFFER THE OCEAN.
SOME MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING IN FROM THE SW IN
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE ASSOCD PRECIP
SHOULD NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE COMPRISED OF A RIDGE THAT
QUICKLY SLIDES ACROSS THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF ENERGY
STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA, AND
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EAST BACKS TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN EASTWARD DURING MONDAY, LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AND
WITH THIS FEATURE, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE TROUGH THEN LIFTS
OUT THEREAFTER, HOWEVER A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE SOME INDIVIDUAL
MODEL RUNS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSE
OFF FRIDAY SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN STATES, THERE IS A LACK OF
CONSISTENCY/AGREEMENT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN COOLER AND MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE EAST. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND
INTO MONDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY
SHIFTS TO OUR EAST SATURDAY NIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO EASES
OFFSHORE. ON ITS HEELS IS ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS WITHIN A
BACKING UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING DOWNSTREAM
WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS A RESULT,
WE ARE ANTICIPATING RAIN OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH IT CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PW VALUES SURGING INTO THE 1.0-1.5 INCH RANGE
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH AMPLE LIFT MAY ALLOW THE RAIN TO
BE MODERATE/HEAVY AT TIMES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY LATE SUNDAY OF
AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER THIS
SHOULD FALL OVER A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVERALL INDICATE A PRONOUNCED VEERING PROFILE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AS A LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH DURING A PORTION OF SUNDAY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAA SURGE AND INCREASING 850 MB FLOW COULD
ALLOW THE RAIN TO RAMP UP QUICKLY TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
SHOWERY WEATHER OF LATE, THE REGION COULD USE MORE RAIN.

THERE IS ALSO AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF PHILADELPHIA. THIS WILL BE DETERMINED BY
HOW FAR NORTH THE INCOMING WARM FRONT GETS. GIVEN THE FORECAST ATTM,
WE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY START TO
SHIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALLOWING THE
STEADY RAIN TO END AND BECOME MORE SHOWERY. THIS OCCURS AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES RIGHT OVER OUR AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS MONDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. WHILE MONDAY IS LOOKING DRIER WITH TIME
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS, RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE
INCOMING TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY. IT APPEARS THE WARM SECTOR IS IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY
BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE. WHILE SOME THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
EXIT TO THE EAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. GIVEN LESS
CERTAINTY FOR SOME THUNDER MONDAY, WE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE A
MENTION. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD END EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY THEN
EXTEND INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE EAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS THIS STARTS TO
OCCUR, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST MAY HAVE A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE RUNNING UP THE FRONT. THIS COULD AT LEAST BRUSH OUR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS. AS THE MAIN TROUGH TO OUR WEST ARRIVES
THURSDAY, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO ARRIVE AND MOVE THROUGH.
THE WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE SOME COOLING TAKES PLACE ON FRIDAY.
THE COOLING ON FRIDAY MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT APPROACHING. THE SETUP FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY COULD BE MORE
UNSETTLED AS ENERGY OFF THE COAST ALONG AN OLD FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW. THIS FEATURE, DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK AND
ALSO STRENGTH/POSITION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, COULD ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE
SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED DETAILS, WE KEPT POPS NO HIGH THAN
CHC.

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LTST TAF FCST IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN PREV. STILL HOLDING ONTO
MVFR THRU THE NIGHT. IFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. NOT CURRENTLY FCSTING IFR ATTM, EXCEPT AT KMIV. VSBY SHOULD
NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE ALTHOUGH COULD BE TEMPORARILY REDUCED
IN SHOWERS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SAT
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OVERALL.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN, THEN IMPROVE LATER
MONDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED DURING MONDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY
SOUTH OF KPHL. EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR OVERALL AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES.

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WIND WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH IS BLOWING INTO THE NJ
COASTAL WATERS. THIS RESULTS IN BUILDING SEAS WHICH HAVE REACHED 5
TO 6 FEET AT BUOYS 44009...91 AND 65. HIGHER SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT HENCE A SCA FOR HAZ SEAS HAS BEEN EXTENDED
UNTIL 600 AM SAT. THIS SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE
DAY ON SAT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO
25 KNOTS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE. WHILE SEAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 2-4 FOOT
RANGE, TIMES OF 5 FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 ABOUT FEET DURING
WEDNESDAY ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...AMC/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...AMC/GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...AMC/GORSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

156 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AT ALL TAF SITES. NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE STILL SOLIDLY IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY RESULTING IN FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER. THERE
IS A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF EARLY THIS MORNING THAT HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH
THE WEST CENTRAL GULF COAST. THEY MAY HOLD TOGETHER BUT WILL BE
TOO FAR NORTH TO BE AN ISSUE FOR KAPF. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE ESE FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN
INCREASING IN SPEED BUT ONLY TO AROUND 10-12 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. KAPF WINDS WILL SWING TO THE SW AROUND 18Z AS THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE KICKS IN. /HOETH

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016/

UPDATE...
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO POP UP ALONG THE GULF
BREEZE THIS EVENING. WHILE POPS MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE,
THE HRRR STILL INSISTS MORE WILL DEVELOP, SO WILL LEAVE THEM IN
PLACE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME, ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS SOME POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY, MAINLY IN
THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THE EAST WIND WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AT
MOST LOCATIONS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TOMORROW, IT WILL
PICK UP AGAIN, POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. KAPF
WILL SEE A SEA BREEZE FLIP THE WIND TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MODELS STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THE WEATHER MOSTLY
QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE
SEA/GULF BREEZES. BY FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE HIGH
WILL STRENGTHEN, WHICH WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP A GENERALLY
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

MONDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTH FLORIDA, WHICH WILL
CAUSE SOME WEAKENING OF THE HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK, THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WIND OUT OF THE EAST, AND WILL HAMPER
ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE EASTERLY WIND WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 2 TO 4
FEET TODAY, TO AROUND 2 FEET FRIDAY, IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN 2 FEET INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE REDUCTION OF THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS BY THE WEEKEND FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE WIND
LOOKS TO PICK UP AGAIN SOME BY SUNDAY, WHICH WILL CAUSE SEAS TO
BUILD BACK TO AROUND 3 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND ALSO BRING AN
INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 72 87 72 / 10 0 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 74 87 74 / 0 0 0 0
MIAMI 87 74 88 72 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 86 71 87 71 / 0 0 0 0

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99/BH
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...99/BH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1125 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY ALLOWING A MOISTURE INCREASE.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION PREVENTING
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE WEST
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE LESS
CLOUD COVERAGE AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
HOWEVER CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE HRRR MAY BE UNDERDONE WHICH WOULD
LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION A 20 KT LLJ WILL PROMOTE SOME
LOWER LEVEL MIXING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
REINFORCING A BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WARM
ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASED MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE UPSTATE. A NUMBER OF
HI RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE UPSTATE AS WELL AS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
NC. THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE NORTHERN AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION WOULD TEND TO MOVE E/NE IN THE
STEERING FLOW BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FURTHER INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE
REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN THE
LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WHICH INCREASES UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S MOST
EVERYWHERE...POSSIBLY A LITTLE COOLER FAR NORTH AS THE MORNING
HEATING WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MEAN FLOW AT MID LEVELS BEING WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY...THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD DRIFT OVER THE CWA
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS/TSTORMS A THREAT ALL
NIGHT. PWS WILL BE INCREASING TO >1.5 INCHES...BUT THE MAIN JET AT
UPPER LEVELS REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAINLY INDUCED BE EARLIER CONVECTION...SO I
HAVE NOT GONE AS HIGH AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST FOR POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 60S WITH
CLOUDS SUPPRESSING THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

SUNDAY...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL BE
IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...A CLEAR
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LACKING OVER THE
CWA...AND THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER
THAN SATURDAY...LIMITING THE INSTABILITY. I HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AGAIN AM LEANING TOWARD LOWER
GUIDANCE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PATTERN. THERE
MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS ANOTHER FRONT
TRIES TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY. PWS MAY ALSO DROP A BIT...BUT THAT
MEANS A LITTLE BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN...PRODUCING SOME
MODEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS APPROPRIATE.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER JET WHICH WILL BE HELD OFF TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY FINALLY STARTS TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DEVELOPS IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THERE IS
SOME GLOBAL MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH HOW FAST THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW WHICH DRAGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA. THE 12Z GFS QUICKLY RACES THE SYSTEM THROUGH AND
BRINGS COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN FOR WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE
SLOWER 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE POLAR AIR MASS IN UNTIL
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...I HAVE KEPT SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN DEFERENCE TO THE ECMWF. IN EITHER
CASE...A MODIFIED POLAR AIR MASS SHOULD MOVE IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS/CIGS IN FOG ACROSS THE MIDLANDS TAF SITES
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT
IMPACT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON FOG FORMATION. HAVE INDICATED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG AT KAGS/KOGB FROM 09-14Z. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
COULD CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MONDAY. EARLY
MORNING LOW CIGS LOOK POSSIBLE AT ALL THE TERMINALS SUNDAY/MONDAY
MORNING WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
SEEM TO BE IN LINE FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY IT BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN
DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1034 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY ALLOWING A MOISTURE
INCREASE.

TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S MOST
EVERYWHERE...POSSIBLY A LITTLE COOLER FAR NORTH AS THE MORNING
HEATING WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MEAN FLOW AT MID LEVELS BEING WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY...THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD DRIFT OVER THE CWA
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS/TSTORMS A THREAT ALL
NIGHT. PWS WILL BE INCREASING TO >1.5 INCHES...BUT THE MAIN JET AT
UPPER LEVELS REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAINLY INDUCED BE EARLIER CONVECTION...SO I
HAVE NOT GONE AS HIGH AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST FOR POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 60S WITH
CLOUDS SUPPRESSING THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

.SUNDAY...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...A CLEAR
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LACKING OVER THE CWA...AND
THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN
SATURDAY...LIMITING THE INSTABILITY. I HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AGAIN AM LEANING TOWARD LOWER GUIDANCE
VALUES.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PATTERN. THERE
MAYBE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS ANOTHER FRONT
TRIES TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY. PWS MAY ALSO DROP A BIT...BUT THAT MEANS A
LITTLE BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN...PRODUCING SOME MODEST LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
APPROPRIATE.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
JET WHICH WILL BE HELD OFF TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
FINALLY STARTS TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THERE IS SOME GLOBAL MODEL TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH HOW FAST THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS A SURFACE
LOW WHICH DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. THE 12Z GFS QUICKLY
RACES THE SYSTEM THROUGH AND BRINGS COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN FOR
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE POLAR AIR
MASS IN UNTIL THURSDAY. THEREFORE...I HAVE KEPT SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN DEFERENCE TO THE ECMWF. IN
EITHER CASE...A MODIFIED POLAR AIR MASS SHOULD MOVE IN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

807 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S MOST
EVERYWHERE...POSSIBLY A LITTLE COOLER FAR NORTH AS THE MORNING
HEATING WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVERSPREADING THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING.

GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN PATCHY FOG AT THE TERMINALS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT IMPACT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON FOG
FORMATION. HAVE INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG AT KAGS/KOGB
FROM 09-14Z...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM DOING SO AT THE OTHER TERMINALS
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

127 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

UPDATE...
DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS NORTH GA. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH GA. THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE ALSO
CAUGHT ON TO THIS AND ARE NO LONGER SHOWING ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS
OVER NORTH GA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. HOWEVER CAPES REMAIN HIGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR THIS REASON WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH GA...GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE FALL LINE. SOUTH OF THE FALL LINE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES.
BY THIS EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA EXCEPT
FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE COLD FRONT TO THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TODAYS FORECAST IS
LOW...AS MODELS...SYNOPTIC AND HI-RES DON`T HAVE A REALLY GOOD
HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

WV LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS
MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...EVEN NORTH OF 20 DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S SO THE
AIRMASS IS STILL QUITE MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GA THIS MORNING...BUT
RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SOME VERY MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW...BUT NOTHING VERY STRONG.
MODELS ARE NOT PROGGING A STRONG PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY TO
TRAVERSE THE FLOW EITHER.

LOW PRESSURE WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THIS WILL STRETCH THE COLD
FRONT/STALLED BOUNDARY OUT ALMOST EAST TO WEST. THE LOW PRESSURE
WAVE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT NEARS THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

HI RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH CONVECTIVE PATTERNS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SEE VERY LITTLE REASON TODAY WILL BE ANY
DIFFERENT. THE LOCAL WRF...ARW AND HRRR ALL HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY. THE HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWFA...WHILE THE LOCAL WRF/ARW DEVELOPS THE
CONVECTION A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH CWFA.
HOWEVER...THE ARW AND WRF CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN COVERAGE.
(THE ARW PERFORMED A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE-WISE FOR WEDNESDAY.) THE
ONE UNIVERSAL MESSAGE WITHIN THE HI-RES MODELS IS THAT THE BULK OF
ANY PRECIP TODAY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...SO HAVE
GONE WITH THIS TREND. SINCE THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DIFFERS
BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS...AM KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY BUT
THE HIGHEST NUMBERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE
CWFA.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FCST PERIOD STARTS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE NORTHERN GULF
AND RETURN OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE FOCUSED NEAR A LINGERING WEDGE FRONT
OR OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN THE NORTH AND THERE IS SOME DECENT
PROGGED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS MIGHT BE
WARRANTED IN FUTURE UPDATES. STILL LOOKING TO HAVE GREATEST PRECIP
CHANCE/COVERAGE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD AS THE
UPPER FORCING/JET DYNAMICS PUSH A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. NOT QUITE AS MUCH AMPLITUDE TO THIS SYSTEM AS SEEN IN
PREVIOUS SUITES OF GUIDANCE AND THE SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH HOW
UNSTABLE THE ENVIRONMENT CAN GET WHILE DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE POSSIBLE. THE COMMON FLIES IN THE OINTMENT THAT COULD
BUST PRECIP FCST WOULD BE IF ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION DISRUPTS
MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE NORTHERN GULF OR WEAK PERTURBATIONS AND
REMNANT CLOUD COVERAGE MUDDLES THE SENSITIVE ATMOSPHERE.

FORECAST ACTUALLY GETS TRICKIER MONDAY AND BEYOND GIVEN LARGE
DISCREPANCY AND INCONSISTENCY AMONG LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW
END CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS ACCORDINGLY...THOUGH IF ANY PERIOD LOOKS
TO HAVE SOME TYPE OF CONSENSUS FOR SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL IT WOULD
BE LATE TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...THOUGH STILL BIG DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND SHORTWAVE
POTENTIAL.

TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD TREND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMS BEYOND...THOUGH EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS
MADE PER AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES.

BAKER

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY SCT ACROSS ATL/AHN AND SCT-BKN ACROSS CSG/MCN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ALL AREAS GOING MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. A CU FIELD
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE CSG/MCN AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GA WITH THE WHOLE
AREA SINKING INTO SOUTH GA BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST
TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT
WESTERLY TO CALM TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 83 61 89 61 / 20 10 5 10
ATLANTA 81 62 86 65 / 20 10 5 10
BLAIRSVILLE 79 55 82 57 / 20 10 5 20
CARTERSVILLE 81 58 85 61 / 20 10 5 20
COLUMBUS 83 64 88 66 / 50 20 10 10
GAINESVILLE 81 61 85 62 / 20 10 5 20
MACON 84 63 88 63 / 30 20 10 10
ROME 83 57 86 59 / 20 10 5 20
PEACHTREE CITY 81 58 86 60 / 20 10 10 10
VIDALIA 87 67 89 66 / 50 40 5 5

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...17

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

1143 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS NORTH GA. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH GA. THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE ALSO
CAUGHT ON TO THIS AND ARE NO LONGER SHOWING ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS
OVER NORTH GA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. HOWEVER CAPES REMAIN HIGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR THIS REASON WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH GA...GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE FALL LINE. SOUTH OF THE FALL LINE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES.
BY THIS EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA EXCEPT
FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD TREND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMS BEYOND...THOUGH EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS
MADE PER AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES.

BAKER

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD TO ATL. CIGS MAY BOUNCE LIFR/IFR FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT SHOULD GO MVFR BY 15Z.HI RES MODELS HAVE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP TO THE SOUTH TODAY...BUT ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE...BUT A SHIFT TO THE NW WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW BEHIND A FRONT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 83 61 89 61 / 20 10 5 5
ATLANTA 81 62 86 65 / 20 10 5 10
BLAIRSVILLE 79 55 82 57 / 20 10 5 10
CARTERSVILLE 81 58 85 61 / 20 10 5 10
COLUMBUS 83 64 88 66 / 50 20 10 10
GAINESVILLE 81 61 85 62 / 20 10 5 10
MACON 84 63 88 63 / 30 20 5 10
ROME 83 57 86 59 / 20 10 5 10
PEACHTREE CITY 81 58 86 60 / 20 10 10 10
VIDALIA 87 67 89 66 / 50 40 10 10

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...17

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

734 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD TREND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMS BEYOND...THOUGH EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS
MADE PER AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES.

BAKER

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD TO ATL. CIGS MAY BOUNCE LIFR/IFR FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT SHOULD GO MVFR BY 15Z.HI RES MODELS HAVE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP TO THE SOUTH TODAY...BUT ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE...BUT A SHIFT TO THE NW WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW BEHIND A FRONT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 83 61 89 61 / 40 20 5 5
ATLANTA 81 62 86 65 / 40 20 5 10
BLAIRSVILLE 79 55 82 57 / 40 10 5 10
CARTERSVILLE 81 58 85 61 / 40 10 5 10
COLUMBUS 83 64 88 66 / 50 20 10 10
GAINESVILLE 81 61 85 62 / 40 10 5 10
MACON 84 63 88 63 / 50 30 5 10
ROME 83 57 86 59 / 30 10 5 10
PEACHTREE CITY 81 58 86 60 / 50 20 10 10
VIDALIA 87 67 89 66 / 50 40 10 10

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

602 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL HELP BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE TODAY AND SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIER BETWEEN UPPER SYSTEMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
MODELS SHOW A LEE-SIDE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH HEATING TODAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THE LEAD MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAKER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN THE FLAT FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS
INDICATE MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW DURING MUCH OF TODAY BEHIND THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED. THE GFS AND NAM MOS POPS HAVE TRENDED LOWER. THE HRRR
SUGGESTED SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TODAY. THE NAM DISPLAYED SURFACE-BASED LI/S
NEAR -8. THIS INSTABILITY PLUS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AIDING DOWNDRAFTS
SUGGESTED DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO FAVORED HAIL. IT SHOULD BE BREEZY WITH STRONG
MIXING TODAY. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL AND GFS LAMP
INDICATED GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

THE MODELS DISPLAYED A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING TONIGHT WITH THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEARING THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MODELS INDICATED A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH A FLAT FLOW AND
LITTLE MOISTURE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE LOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAYED A SURFACE TROUGH OR FRONT LINGERING IN THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INDICATED H85 NORTHWEST
FLOW AND H5 RIDGING. THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT HAVING LITTLE
MOISTURE. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW. IT WILL BE
HOT FRIDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTED
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. ALSO FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS FOR THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW. THE MODELS DISPLAY GREATER MOISTURE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
DRYING AND RIDGING IS DEPICTED FOR TUESDAY. MOISTURE MAY RETURN
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE MOS DISPLAYS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z.

HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. LATEST REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE INDICATED MVFR CIGS WITH VCSH
ACROSS THE CSRA AFTER 09Z. HRRR SHOWING SHOWERS SLOWLY FALLING
APART OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATER TODAY...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

548 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE MOS DISPLAYS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

357 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL HELP BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE TODAY AND ON SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIER BETWEEN UPPER
SYSTEMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
MODELS SHOW A LEE-SIDE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH HEATING TODAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THE LEAD MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAKER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN THE FLAT FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS
INDICATE MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW DURING MUCH OF TODAY BEHIND THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED. THE GFS AND NAM MOS POPS HAVE TRENDED LOWER. THE HRRR
SUGGESTED SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TODAY. THE NAM DISPLAYED SURFACE-BASED LI/S
NEAR -8. THIS INSTABILITY PLUS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AIDING DOWNDRAFTS
SUGGESTED DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO FAVORED HAIL. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE MOS DISPLAYS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

344 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD TREND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMS BEYOND...THOUGH EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS
MADE PER AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES.

BAKER

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AL THIS MORNING. DO
THINK ONCE THE HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR OUT PATCHY IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL GA...AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT ATL. HI RES MODELS HAVE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP TO THE SOUTH TODAY...BUT ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE...BUT A SHIFT TO THE NW WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW BEHIND A FRONT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

NLISTEMAA

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

933 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
932 PM CDT

CURRENT FORECAST IS IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY DIPPING SLIGHTLY FROM WHERE THEY ARE
CURRENTLY...WHICH FOR MOST PLACES IS THE 40S. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE DYNAMIC
SYSTEM...WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL CENTER IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI REGION...WITH SNOW ON ITS BACK
SIDE IN COLORADO. THE WARM ADVECTION WING OF THE STORM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. IT WILL INDEED BE
WET...BREEZY...AND COOL...THOUGH FOR AREAS NORTH THE BULK OF THE
STEADIER RAIN WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KMD

.SHORT TERM...
204 PM CDT

THROUGH SATURDAY...

COOL CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE LACK OF FORCING TO SCOUR THE CLOUDS FROM THE WEAK MID-LVL
HEIGHT RISES AND LACK OF PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS HAS KEPT CLOUD
IMPROVEMENTS TO A MINIMUM AS WELL...AND THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SFC
FLOW HELD TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE IN THE MID/UPR 40S.
FURTHER INLAND TEMPS HAVE SLOWLY WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 50S.

THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MID-LVL
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN THE
DRY FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST 9Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
STEADILY ADVECTING NORTH AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS NORTH AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE PRESENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
CONTINUED NORTHEAST/EAST SFC WINDS WILL HELP TO DELAY THE ONSET
OF PRECIP ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 UNTIL JUST AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT
EXPECT STEADY MOISTENING THROUGH THE COLUMN TO OCCUR WITH POPS
APPROACHING CATEGORICAL BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

VERY MOIST SAT AFTN IS IN STORE...AS PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO
APPROACH 1 INCH AND PERHAPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA NEARLY 1.2 INCHES. WITH THE MOIST AXIS OVERHEAD SAT
AFTN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO PARCELS COUPLED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET
AROUND 30-40KT...THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAIN TO OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON APPEARS FAVORABLE...ALONG WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER FROM MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA.
TEMPS SAT WILL SLOWLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 50S...HOWEVER FOR
AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN FAR NORTHEAST IL THE NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPR 40S.

BEACHLER

.LONG TERM...
256 PM CDT

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MAIN CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WITH
THE CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD PCPN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE
VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A BAND OF MODERATE
RAIN THROUGH THE CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PHASES WITH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC UPPER LOW...REFLECTED IN
FORECAST PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH THROUGH THE EVENING BACKS UP THE
SCENARIO FOR MODERATE RAIN. INSTABILITY WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO
THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER
SHOULD STILL BE SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...OFF-SETTING MODERATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL AND TS COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLD/EMBEDDED. PCPN SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST...CUTTING OFF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE
PERSISTENT CANADIAN HIGH PARKED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE EAST...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING INTO
THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. UNSEASONABLY LOW TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NELY FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW
COOLER AIR FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

FROM TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES AS THE LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY IN AGREEING ON A SOLUTION IN HANDLING THE NRN STREAM
OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THERE IS SOME CONTINUITY ON KEEPING THE
SRN STREAM JET SHUNTED WELL TO THE SOUTH...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE
QUICKLY ON THEIR DEPICTION OF THE NRN STREAM...PRACTICALLY BECOMING
180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE. SO...HAVE TRENDED CLOSE TO A BLENDED
SOLUTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. ULTIMATELY...THIS
TRENDS THE FORECAST TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR PCPN. GIVEN THAT PCPN CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE.

KREIN

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

PEAK OF DAYTIME HEATING DID ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF EROSION OF THE
STRATUS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. THE THOUGHT WAS THAT THIS EROSION
WOULD PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...BUT LOW LEVEL ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED A
SECOND PUSH OF MVFR STRATUS TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES. OTHER
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAVE SEEN THINNING OF THIS
STRATUS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MVFR CIGS SCATTER OUT
BRIEFLY...LEAVING A FL250 CIRRUS DECK IN PLACE. AT THIS POINT IT
SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT CIGS HOVER AROUND 025-035 THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

INTO SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS LEADING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. ONCE THE
COLUMN FURTHER SATURATES BY 18Z...RAIN WILL INCREASE /POSSIBLY TO
MODERATE INTENSITY/ WITH CIGS AND VSBYS DROPPING TO MVFR OR IFR.
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE EAST FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT WITH A FEW GUSTS
NEAR 22KT. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE RAIN SUBSIDES AS THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES VERY NEAR CHICAGO.

.MARINE...
256 PM CDT

WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PARKED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS...GENERALLY NELY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. INITIALLY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
RELATIVELY WEEK...BUT AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS NORTH INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING...THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STRENGTHEN WITH
PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION BECOMING MORE ENELY AT ARND 20-25 KT. THIS
FETCH AND WIND SPEED SHOULD SET UP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY AS THE ENELY FETCH COULD KEEP WAVES
AROUND 4 FEET INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
A RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT SETTING UP MONDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

KREIN

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...10 AM SATURDAY TO
10 PM SATURDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
900 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Updates this evening mainly to refine the short term timing of
precipitation spreading northward into central IL overnight as low
level warm advection starts to develop ahead of low pressure
moving ENE out of the TX panhandle. Leading edge of this
precipitation is very light and with no lightning detected so have
kept mention of thunder until a few hours after midnight south of
a Springfield-Effingham line spreading northward to I-74 by around
6 a.m. Initially, expect some light showers reaching Springfield-
Effingham by around midnight and continuing northward overnight.

Current temperatures range from the upper 40s in Galesburg and
Lacon to the lower 60s I-70 southward. Lows overnight should only
fall a few more degrees. Winds northeast 6-12 mph will increase to
10-15 mph and become a bit gustier by morning.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

18z/1pm surface analysis shows stationary frontal boundary extending
from West Virginia southwestward to an area of low pressure over the
Texas panhandle. As a vigorous upper low noted on the latest water
vapor imagery over northern New Mexico pivots northeastward, the
front will get a push northward tonight. Rain will eventually
spread into central Illinois ahead of the front: however, the models
remain in poor agreement as to how fast this process will occur. The
NAM continues to be the most aggressive in spreading rain across
much of central Illinois by midnight, while both the GFS and Rapid
Refresh tend to hold it back until later tonight. While the upper
low appears rather progressive, a dry E/NE low-level flow north of
the front will likely impede the initial northward progress of
precip. As such, prefer the slower GFS/Rapid Refresh consensus in
the short-term. Have therefore cut back PoPs during the evening to
go with a dry forecast along/north of a Rushville...to Lincoln...to
Paris line. Showers will then overspread the entire area from the
southwest after midnight, with locations along/north of I-74
remaining dry until close to dawn Saturday. Forecast soundings show
modest elevated instability developing late, so have included
isolated thunder south of I-74. Overnight low temperatures will
range from the upper 40s north, to the middle 50s south of I-70.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Still looks like a rather wet weekend in central and eastern IL as a
potent upper level low and cyclonic surface system works its way
into the Midwest from the southern Plains. Fairly strong
isentropic lift is expected to develop along I-70 tonight, and
work its way northward Saturday morning. Moderate low level
moisture transport will bring seasonally high precipitable water
values northward, resulting in total precipitation in the 1.00 to
1.50" range across most of the forecast area by late Saturday
night. MUCAPES in the 100-200 range indicate the potential for
some embedded, elevated thunderstorms in the precipitation shield
Saturday morning and early afternoon.

The potential for strong/severe storms south of I-70 later
Saturday will be dependent on the amount of partial clearing and
atmospheric recovery/instability that can develop in the wake of
the rain. Could see scattered strong t-storms as far north as a
SPI-DEC-Paris line toward evening and overnight, with scattered
showers elsewhere as the surface low tracks through south central
IL.

Should see quite a few showers and isolated t-storms in the forecast
area Sunday as the upper level low/cold pool moves across central
and eastern IL. The presence of plenty of clouds and periods of rain
will keep temperatures on the cool side Sunday with highs only in
the 55-60 range west of the IL River, and generally in the 60s to
east.

The GFS and European models both indicate that as upper ridging
builds rapidly into the Canadian Rockies, a series of shortwaves
will drop into the Midwest from the north. The models have timing
differences with these, particularly by midweek. The result will be
a slight chance/isolated showers in central IL Monday, with more
uncertainty as to the next chance mid-week and again late in the
week. With a faster, longitudinal flow anticipated, will side
more with the quicker GFS and go with low chance PoPs in eastern
IL Wednesday, and central IL later Friday.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

MVFR ceilings continue to be predominant over the central IL
terminals this evening despite a late afternoon trend toward a
decrease in cloud cover that has since reversed. HRRR model and
other guidance products suggest the BKN-OVC layer around 3 kft
AGL will thin later this evening for a possibility of VFR cigs
developing for a time before lowering again overnight as a warm
front lifts northward toward the area. Predominance of model
guidance suggests IFR ceilings and predominant rain by around 09z
at KSPI and 12z at the I-74 terminals KPIA-KBMI-KPIA and have
continued this timing. Modest elevated instability suggests the
potential for a few embedded thunderstorms, so have included VCTS
after 12z. Winds will be from the northeast at 5 to 10 kts this
evening, then will veer to the southeast and increase to around 15
kts with gusts to around 25 kts Saturday morning.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Onton

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

631 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
204 PM CDT

THROUGH SATURDAY...

BEACHLER

.LONG TERM...
256 PM CDT

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

KREIN

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

.MARINE...
256 PM CDT

KREIN

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...10 AM SATURDAY TO
10 PM SATURDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
306 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

MVFR ceilings persist at the central Illinois terminals early this
afternoon: however the HRRR continues to suggest these will
scatter over the next 2-3 hours. Have noted a gradual thinning of
the low clouds on visible satellite, so will follow the HRRR and
scatter the ceilings between 21z and 22z. A high overcast from
convective blowoff upstream will remain through the late
afternoon and evening, before clouds once again begin lowering
tonight as a warm front lifts northward into the area. Models
still disagree as to how quickly the lower clouds and precip will
return, with the NAM being the fastest. Based on a continued dry
E/NE low-level flow north of the front, think the slower GFS/Rapid
Refresh is the way to go. As such, have delayed IFR ceilings and
predominant rain until 09z at KSPI and 12z at the I-74 terminals.
Modest elevated instability suggests the potential for a few
embedded thunderstorms, so have included VCTS between 12z and 18z
as the initial surge of warm advection precip moves through. Winds
will be from the northeast at 5 to 10kt early this afternoon, then
will veer to the southeast and increase to between 15 and 20kt by
Saturday morning.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Barnes

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

702 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO KENTUCKY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND PUSH THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO THE FORECAST.

YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING YET
MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHER CENTRAL INDIANA...LINGERING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STRETCHES FROM EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHERN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.
RADAR SHOWS THAT SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS HRRR SEEMS A BIT OVER AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TREND APPEARS IN PLACE WITH SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR
THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
PRECIP DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID
LEVEL CAPPING BUILDING DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE OR
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL TRY AND HAVE MINIMAL POPS TO NO POPS. THUS
WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH A GOOD MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND
TOWARD A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. WITH LIGHT N-NW FLOW IN
PLACE...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A BLEND ON LOWS.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN
OVERRUNNING PATTERN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER BEST FORCING LOOKS TO
ARRIVE AFTER 12Z SAT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD CLOUD SKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

BETTER FORCING ARRIVES ON SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH TOWARD INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS EXCELLENT UPGLIDE ON SATURDAY WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER
5 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN BY
18Z. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD HIGH POPS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN EXPECTED RAIN.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ARE LOOK POISED TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE
POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS AND TREND HIGHS COOLER AND LOWS WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS A FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AND AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. COULD SEE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS HANGING AROUND GIVEN THIS. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
AFTER THAT AND SHOULD SEE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. MODELS DISAGREE ON INSTABILITY WITH THAT SYSTEM SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR INITIALLY APPEARS LIKELY TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE QUESTION BEING HOW LOW THINGS WILL GET.

LAMP GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON HOW EARLY THINGS WILL
DETERIORATE AND HOW LOW THEY WILL GO. WILL TAKE IND/HUF/BMG TO MVFR
AND LAF TO IFR AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHERLY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WESTERLY
SOUTH. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO WELL BELOW 10KT OVERNIGHT.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

434 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO KENTUCKY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING YET
MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 282100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE KIND VICINITY...SO WILL REMOVE
FROM THE FORECAST.

WILL ALSO ADD SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS TO THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING DURING THAT TIME OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. THAT SAID THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND THE SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...FORECAST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RADAR
TRENDS. A FRONT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE
AREA...MOVING A LITTLE BIT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SINKING
SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH IFR AND WORSE
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL END UP...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE KLAF
WILL HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH LIFR OR LOWER CEILINGS...KIND
DROPPING TO IFR OR LOWER...AND KHUF AND KBMG BEING ON THE EDGE AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BY MID MORNING
FRIDAY SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP/JAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO KENTUCKY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING YET
MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

125 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING
HAVE LONG SINCE DISSIPATED. NO NEW CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ACROSS
THE AREA FOR ABOUT THE LAST 90 MINUTES OR SO. HOWEVER...WITH THE
HRRR MODEL STILL SHOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA TO AID WITH SURFACE HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION...DECIDED TO LEAVE IN A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION...SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS. THIS LED TO HIGHER POPS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. OVERALL...THE RECENT
NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH THE
COLD FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL UPSTREAM...REDEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND
IS WHAT THE MOST RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS HAVE. SOME OF THAT
ACTIVITY COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL AND
STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

EARLY THIS MORNING...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
AND MS VALLEY REGION...WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY AND THEN WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS AND
THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS LEADING TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND THE
APPALACHIAN REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL KY.

OVERALL...THE RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING...BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY.

FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THIS EVENING...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BUT TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING
AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
LOW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL ALTHOUGH THE MAIN MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND THE
DETAILS ARE LOW. THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER...WILL LEAD TO MID LEVEL
DRYING AND COOLING TODAY WITH MODEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS.
SUFFICIENT SOLAR INSOLATION MAY OCCUR FOR CAPE BY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON TO REACH 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER AT LEAST IN SOME AREAS
PENDING MORNING CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. AFTER
ACTIVITY PROBABLY PEAKS THIS MORNING...A SECONDARY PEAK SHOULD
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COUPLE STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
SUNSET. THEREAFTER...THE RESPITE FROM THE RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL BEGIN...THOUGH IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...OVER THE WEEKEND.
CLEARING SKIES AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...AND IT COULD BECOME DENSE IN
SOME LOCATIONS. CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG HOWEVER WAS TOO LIMITED AT
THIS POINT TO INCLUDE AS TIMING AND EXTENT OF CLEARING IS
UNCERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE PERIOD WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND UPPER WAVE APPROACHING. ALONG WITH THIS A WARM
FRONT WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING INCREASE
IN SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. DO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE AM BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
CHANCE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN WILL
BE TOWARD TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SATURDAY AS MAIN WAVE AND
LOW LEVEL JET COME ACROSS EASTERN KY.

NOW SUNDAY WE SEE MORE PHASING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WHILE WE
RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR AT THE SURFACE AS WARM FRONT TRACKS
NORTH. THIS PHASING WILL BRING DECENT BAND OF WESTERLIES ALOFT
RIGHT ACROSS KY...AND AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS SOME
AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THESE ELEMENTS WILL
ALIGN TO ESTABLISH DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR...HOWEVER CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL INTERSECTION YOU COULD SEE SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THE
QUESTION WOULD BE HOW MUCH RECOVERY AND DESTABILIZATION DO WE SEE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST WE SEE AMPLY
DESTABILIZATION AND CERTAINLY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES MID LAPSE
RATES UP TICK TO AROUND 7 C/KM. CAPE VALUES BECOME FAT WITH IN THE
COLUMN...WITH THE SOUNDING SUGGESTING MUCAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO
AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. IF WE REALIZE SOME OF THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WE WOULD BE IN FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER...AND
ALL ELEMENTS OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE IN PLAY. WILL ALSO SAY THE
CIPS ANALOG DOES SHOW SOME SIGNAL MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I64
AND SPC MARS HAS SOME WEAK SIGNAL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND THE
FACT THAT WE ARE STILL ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT WILL NOT RAMP UP HWO JUST
YET...BUT WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DO TRANSITION THIS TO SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO WANE. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY
MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FALLING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS THAN
WE HAVE SEEN LATELY...AS WE FALL BACK TO MORE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY TUESDAY MORNING WE DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER
40S FOR LOWS AND THIS MAY FEEL COOL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SE
LATE WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASE. BEHIND THIS WE COULD
SEE A DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR IF THE GFS COMES TRUE SHOWING 850 MB
TEMPS IN THE 0 TO -2 RANGE...BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO CALL THIS ONE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AN EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CU HAS FORMED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...WE ANTICIPATE
THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION...ONLY VCTS WAS USED IN THE TAFS TO ADDRESS ANY SHOWER
OR STORM ACTIVITY THAT MAY OCCUR. IF AN AIRPORT WERE TO EXPERIENCE
A SHOWER OR STORM...MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS
WILL START OUT BKN AT AROUND 3K...AND SHOULD BECOME SCT AT AROUND
5K BY AROUND 0Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH OUT
THE PERIOD. PILOTS CAN EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH
VALLEY FOG. THIS FOG MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE VALLEYS AND AFFECTS THE SURROUNDING
RIDGETOPS. THE WEATHER ON FRIDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

1209 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

CONVECTION IS AFFECTING MAINLY JKL AND SJS AND THIS SHOULD SHIFT
EAST INTO WV BY 14Z OR 15Z. IFR OR LOWER IS EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH
THIS THOUGH MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE REDUCED TO MVFR. ONCE
THIS DEPARTS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR MVFR
BY THE 16Z TO 19Z PERIOD. THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY 0Z OR
SUNSET. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO VALLEY FOG WITH
MVFR OR IFR VIS BY THE 6Z TO 12 PERIOD. WINDS WILL AVERAGE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH 16Z...THEN BECOMING WESTERLY AND
GUSTY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

810 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

1027 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT MCS OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR/SE OK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXPAND
ENE THIS EVENING...WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING A SECOND
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION JUST TO THE W OVER ECNTRL TX JUST AHEAD
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN OK INTO CNTRL TX. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS/LATEST HRRR DEPICT THIS CONVECTION SLOWLY
MARCHING E TONIGHT...WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION E OF I-35
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING A PORTION OF THE ONGOING MCS OVER E TX/SW
AR. THE OVERALL HAIL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL HAVE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN
THE STRONG SHEAR STILL IN PLACE...HENCE THE TOR WATCH REPLACEMENT
WITH SVR WATCH #128 FOR ALL BUT CALDWELL/GRANT/LASALLE PARISHES IN
NCNTRL LA THROUGH 10Z.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...BUT GIVEN THE 00Z
GUIDANCE/HRRR...HAVE REMOVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING MUCH OF E
TX/SE OK/SW AR SATURDAY...AND REMOVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE REGION
IS QUICKLY DRY SLOTTED BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. THUS...THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH SHOULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE
EXPIRATION TIMES SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD END.

ZONE UPDATE/WATCH ISSUANCE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/00Z TAFS...ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST ONCE AGAIN WITH
AMENDMENTS LIKELY. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...INCLUDING OCCASIONAL
SEVERE TSTMS...ARE AFFECTING MOST TERMINALS IN E TX NORTH OF
I-20/SRN AR/SE OK. SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING
FARTHER SOUTH OF I-20 IN E TX. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL AFFECT
ALL TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE. A MORE SOLID LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 30/06Z
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION AFTER 30/21Z. A FEW LINGERING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 01/00Z. /09/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 82 67 82 / 90 70 50 20
MLU 70 81 68 83 / 70 70 70 30
DEQ 66 78 58 81 / 90 50 20 10
TXK 68 80 62 82 / 90 70 30 10
ELD 69 80 65 83 / 90 70 50 20
TYR 68 82 63 81 / 90 50 20 10
GGG 69 83 65 82 / 90 70 30 10
LFK 70 81 69 82 / 90 70 50 50

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

1012 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT STILL APPEARS ON TRACK BUT IT IS
TOMORROW THAT APPEARS TO BE IN QUESTION NOW. THERE IS A LOT OF
INDICATION THE LAST FEW HRS THAT SUGGEST CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO
THE REGION MUCH EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. FROM A MDL STANDPOINT THE
LAST 3-4 HRS OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN TRENDING STRONGER AND FASTER WITH
A SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
SURGE EAST POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER AS EARLY AS
15Z(MUCH LIKE LAST WEDNESDAY). WHAT COULD LEAD TO THIS...LOOKING AT
THE WV THE S/W MOVING OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND INTO KS APPEAR
LIKE IT COULD BE A TAD DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TAKING A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TX. IN ADDITION EVERY IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT OVER CNTRL AND ERN TX SHOULD LEAD TO VERY HEALTHY CONVECTION.
COMBINE THAT WITH POSSIBLY A STRONGER LLJ OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW
MORNING/MIDDAY(LEADING TO BETTER LL CONVERGENCE) AND ANOTHER RATHER
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT AS LONG
AS A LINE DEVELOPS IT WOULD CONTINUE DRIVING EAST. ADD IN THE FACT
THAT IF THERE ARE SEVERE SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LINE IT WILL IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD COLD POOL AND THUS LEAD TO AN EVEN FASTER ARRIVAL TIME
THAN WHAT WE ARE NOW GOING TO SHOW. HAVE MADE AN ADJUSTMENT TO BRING
CONVECTION INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 15Z AND THE LINE IN
BTR BEFORE 18Z. AGAIN THIS COULD BE TOO SLOW.

THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS TO ALL OF THIS...FIRST A SOLID LINE MUST
DEVELOP IN TX AND SECOND THE S/W WILL PULL NNE AND WE COULD LOSE ALL
MID LVL SUPPORT WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLY DYING OFF JUST BEFORE
GETTING HERE. CAB

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT TONIGHT. IT TERMINATED AT 7 MB ABOUT
20.8 MILES ALOFT AND 50 MILES DOWNRANGE IN MISSISSIPPI SOUND ABOUT
8 MILES WEST OF CAT ISLAND BELOW PASS CHRISTIAN.

SOUNDING HAS AN ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SURFACE TO BASE OF
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 850 MB...ISOTHEMAL TO 814 MB...THEN A
FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATE ABOVE 700 MB TO TROPOPAUSE AT 137 MB WITH
A TEMPERATURE OF -72C. MOISTURE PROFILE IS SOMEWHAT SATURATED
BELOW INVERSION THEN QUITE DRY ALOFT...NOT TOO DISTANT FROM A
LOADED GUN SOUNDING WITH PLENTY OF DOWNDRAFT MOMEMENTUM AIR ALOFT
SHOULD A CONVECTIVE PROCESS GET UNDERWAY. WINDS ARE SE 10-15 KT TO
ABOUT 1500FT...S 25-30 KT TO 7900FT...THEN SW-NW 15-100KT ABOVE.
PEAK WIND 280/103KT AT 46.5KFT.

CHAP OUTPUT ON THIS SOUNDING IS QUITE DISTURBING FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN. USING MOST UNSTABLE LAPSE RATE
351K LIFT DOES YIELD NEARLY 100 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE...28% CHANCE
SEVERE WITH GUST POTENTIAL 52KT...MARBLE SIZED HAIL WITH A 64 VIL
AND SEVERE HAIL WITH 67 VIL. COMPUTED RAINFALL COMES UP 6.54
INCHES WITH POTENTIAL 10.01 INCHES! THIS WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY
MONITORED AS CONVECTION IS BLOSSOMING STEADILY OVER TEXAS AND
COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA UNDER STRONG DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY. 24/RR

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP 1000MB LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER TO
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS TO EAST MISSISSIPPI. PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOTS SHOWED MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED
A NEGATIVELY TITLED CYCLONIC CURVATURE FROM IDAHO TO NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO...CREATING A DIVERGENCE FLOW OVER ARKLATEX
REGION...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ISOTACH ANALYSIS AT 250MB
SHOWED THE SPLIT OVER CENTRAL AND DIVERGENCE EXTENDING NORTHEAST.
18

SHORT TERM...
WHILE TODAY IS QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE CLOSED OFF OVER CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE TO POOL
ALONG AN AXIS FROM WEST TENNESSEE TO CENTRAL TEXAS COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING...PW VALUES 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES ALONG THIS AXIS AND
1 TO 1.25 INCHES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ACCORDING TO GFS.
ERGO...RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HEATING AND CLOSE PROXIMITY WILL YIELD SOME SCT
CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WEST UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE TO SAG SOUTH SATURDAY AND
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE AXIS WILL
LINE FROM SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI WILL
VALUES 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CAPE VALUES WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 900 TO 2500 J/KG THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN JET
STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS RESULT...LL
HELICITY VALUES REMAIN BELOW 250M/S WITH BEST VALUES SATURDAY
MORNING JUST NW OF FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE AXIS WILL ORIENT WEST
TO EAST FROM SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO JUST NORTH OF COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
NORTH HALF OF FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THIS AXIS WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AND AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD. LATER PACKAGES WILL EXAMINE FOR
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE FOR PART OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 18

LONG TERM...

GFS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN EURO WITH WAVE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM DIVING SOUTH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...EURO POSITIONED THE WAVE MORE EAST. EITHER
WAY...FORCING MAY YIELD STRONG STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
POINT NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY TO THE
NEXT WEEKEND. 18

AVIATION...

EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MOSTLY MVFR TO
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATER ON THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. WINDS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY BREEZY TODAY AND EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN ELEVATED TOMORROW
AS WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE TABLE
LATE SATURDAY HAVE NOT PUT THEM IN THE FORECAST YET BUT LOOK FOR THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO BE INSERTED OVER THE NEXT ISSUANCE OR
THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE. 13/MH

MARINE...

WILL RAISE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THE REST OF OPEN WATERS
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY
BE NECESSARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AT LEAST OVER THE
WESTERN WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY YIELD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT. 18

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 68 85 68 81 / 10 40 70 70
BTR 70 88 70 84 / 20 50 50 70
ASD 70 86 68 84 / 10 20 30 60
MSY 72 85 73 82 / 10 20 30 60
GPT 71 85 72 84 / 10 10 20 60
PQL 68 86 69 83 / 10 10 10 50

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

406 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM
SASK THROUGH THE NRN LAKES ATOP A TROUGH FROM SW MN INTO SW WI. AT
THE SFC...NW LOW LEVEL FLOW PREVAILED INTO UPPER MI BETWEEN HIGH
PRES FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO AND A TROUGH FROM ERN IA
INTO THE OH VALLEY. LIGHT RAIN FROM CNTRL WI INTO CNTRL LOWER MI WAS
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN/DEFORMATION AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.
OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WITH AREAS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS REMAINED ACROSS
UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE
NEAR MNM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...VERY DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR WILL MINIMIZE ANY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN. EVEN WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS...EXPECT ENOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
DROPPING BELOW THE LOW 30S.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATE LIGHT PCPN PASSES NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A
WEAKENING NE GRADIENT FLOW WILL STILL BE BOOSTED BY LAKE SUPERIOR TO
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...850-800 MB TEMPS AROUND -1C WILL SUPPORT INLAND TEMPS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AGAIN WITH FEW
MID/HIGH CLOUDS BUT MORE INLAND CU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

A FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN APPEARS TO BE IN THE OFFING ACROSS THE
CONUS/SRN CANADA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. IN GENERAL...
RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE WILL BE THE
RULE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF CANADA WITH HEIGHT ANOMALIES
PEAKING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL IN TURN FAVOR TROFFING OVER ERN
CANADA AND AT TIMES INTO THE ERN CONUS. THIS TROFFING WILL REACH
PEAK AMPLITUDE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...IT APPEARS
ENERGY APPROACHING THE W COAST WILL SPLIT...SUPPORTING REDEVELOPMENT
OF A CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES TROF ON A FAIRLY REGULAR BASIS. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE UPPER LAKES UNLESS THE ERN TROF
RELAXES SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE MEAN ROCKIES
TROF TO LIFT FAR ENOUGH NE TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN INTO THE
UPPER LAKES. THUS...THERE IS LITTLE PCPN IN THE FCST FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ONE SHORTWAVE DROPPING THRU NRN ONTARIO OVER THE
WEEKEND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME -SHRA...BUT WITH TRACK OF WAVE
JUST NE OF UPPER MI...PCPN IS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS FAR
S...ESPECIALLY WITH INSTABILITY LACKING. WOULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY
IF WE WERE MUCH FARTHER INTO THE WARM SEASON. DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN
CANADA RIDGE WHICH REACHES PEAK AMPLITUDE EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE FORCED TO DROP FARTHER S INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA WHICH SHOULD OCCUR
TUE NIGHT WARRANTS LOW CHC POPS. AT THIS POINT...THAT`S THE ONLY CHC
OF RAIN FROM SAT THRU THU.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE EXPECTED PATTERN MOSTLY FAVORS NORMAL TO BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR UPPER MI. AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT
LAKES...AN OVERALL DRY COLUMN ON MOST DAYS WILL SUPPORT RATHER LARGE
TEMP RANGES FROM NIGHTLY MINS TO AFTN MAXES. THRU THE WEEKEND...
TEMPS AT NIGHT WILL LIKELY DROP TO OR BLO FREEZING IN THE INTERIOR
COLDER AREAS. AFTN TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F AWAY FROM THE
COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LAKES. SOME WARMING WILL BEGIN
MON...BUT MORE SO TUE AS W TO SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE TUE NIGHT. HOW WARM WILL
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. COOLER WEATHER...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FOLLOW FOR WED WITH HIGH PRES
BUILDING TOWARD NRN ONTARIO. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...RECENT NAEFS
OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO KEEP UPPER MI ON THE EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BEING FAVORED OVER WRN CANADA/NRN ROCKIES/NRN
PLAINS AND NORMAL TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS BEING FAVORED OVER SE CANADA.
SO...IT APPEARS TEMPS ACROSS UPPER MI WILL OVERALL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOSE TO NORMAL HEADING INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.

WITH THE DEVELOPING DRY SPELL AND MOSTLY COOL WEATHER...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT...KEEPING GREENUP SLOW...FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE AN ISSUE
AT TIMES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. AS IT STANDS RIGHT
NOW...OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...TUE WILL LIKELY BE THE DAY OF MOST
CONCERN AS IT SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
BREEZY W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH
THAT FROPA 5 DAYS OUT...TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY CHANGE SOME
IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND NE WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 12 KTS. GUSTS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HI PRES NEAR HUDSON BAY
AND A PAIR OF LO PRES SYSTEMS DRIFTING E THRU THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/
FAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THRU THIS WEEKEND. THIS PRES PATTERN FAVORS
CONTINUED NE WINDS UNDER 20 KTS FOR MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONGER ENE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
LAKE...WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL FUNNEL AND ACCENTUATE THE NE
FLOW...TODAY AND PERHAPS SAT WHEN THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE
SHARPEST. AS A HI PRES RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE UPPER LAKES SUN
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT. WSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WILL
PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE S AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT DROPPING THRU ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

355 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

HUDSON BAY HI PRES WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON UPR MI INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WX TO THE AREA
UNTIL AT LEAST MON. THERE WL BE A LO PRES DVLPG OVER THE PLAINS ON
SAT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF A SRN BRANCH
UPR TROF OVER THE SW CONUS. BUT SINCE THIS SHRTWV/SFC LO WL
ENCOUNTER A CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF ON THE SW FLANK OF PERSISTENT NRN
BRANCH TROFFING OVER QUEBEC...THE LO PRES/ACCOMPANYING DEEP MSTR AND
PCPN WL BE SHUNTED TO THE S AS THE SHRTWV SHEARS OUT THRU THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. MANY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A PAIR OF SHRTWVS
IN THE NRN BRANCH NW FLOW SLIDING SE JUST TO THE E OF THE UPR LKS
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT DRYNESS OF LLVL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NE FLOW OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY HI PRES...WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED TO BRING DRY WX TO UPR MI...SHOULD LIMIT THE IMPACT TO JUST
SOME CLDS OVER MAINLY THE ERN CWA.

TEMPS SHOULD RUN AOB NORMAL THRU THE COMING WEEKEND WITH H85 TEMPS
FCST FM ABOUT 0C TO A FEW DEGREES BLO 0C. EARLY MRNG LOWS WL DIP TO
ARND 30 AT THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS ON SAT THRU MON WITH DRY
AIR DOMINATING AND FAVORING GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING...BUT A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE WL ALSO ALLOW FOR SHARP DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY DURING THE
AFTN TO AT LEAST NEAR 60 WHERE THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE AND AWAY FM
THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS.

IN THE LONGER TERM...TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE HUDSON BAY HI PRES DRIFTS FARTHER E TOWARD THE CNDN
MARITIMES AND UPR MI BECOMES DOMINATED BY A WSW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK
OF A RDG AXIS EXTENDING SWWD FM THAT HI TO ANOTHER HI PRES CENTER
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW H85 TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO AS HI AS 8C LATE MON INTO TUE. BUT ANY WARMUP IS
LIKELY TO BE BRIEF AS THE UPR TROF OVER QUEBEC IS FCST TO DEEPEN AND
STRENGTHEN THE NW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE UPR LKS NEXT WEEK. SHRTWVS
DROPPING THRU THIS NW FLOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FROPAS WL BRING SOME
COOLER WX ALONG WITH AT LEAST A CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS TO THE UPR LKS
AS EARLY AS TUE. TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS AND ABSENCE OF
MSTR INFLOW WL LIMIT POPS TO THE LO CHC CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME.

DESPITE THE RECENT MDT TO HEAVY RA AND EXPECTED AOB NORMAL TEMPS
THRU THE WEEKEND...THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WX BEFORE
GREENUP MAY CAUSE FIRE WX ISSUES TO BECOME A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK DURING THE EXPECTED BRIEF WARMUP. SOME OF THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS SHOW A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT DVLPG FOR A TIME BEFORE
THE INITIAL COLD FROPA ON TUE. IF THE STRONGER WSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FNT OCCURS DURING DAYTIME WARMING/MIXING...GUSTY WINDS/LO RH COULD
HEIGHTEN FIRE WX ISSUES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND NE WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 12 KTS. GUSTS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

110 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER DURING LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BROAD BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOST CONCENTRATED OVER MBS...FNT...AND PTK. THESE WILL TEND TO
WEAKEN DURING EARLY EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW PERSISTENT NE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO BE EVEN MORE EFFECTIVE AT HOLDING BACK MVFR CEILING ALONG
THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY
ABOVE 5 KNOTS WILL ALSO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING A PROBLEM AROUND
SUNRISE DESPITE WET GROUND LEFT OVER FROM SHOWERS TODAY. VFR WILL
THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY EVEN AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS BY MID MORNING INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW... EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CHALLENGE FOR DTW OPERATIONS FORCING NE TRAFFIC FLOW INTO THE
EVENING. THIS SAME WIND PATTERN WILL HOLD BACK MVFR CEILING BUT NOT
QUITE BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CEILING ABOVE 5 KFT WHICH WILL BE
PERSISTENT THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF OCCASIONAL BREAKS
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FEET OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

DISCUSSION...

RAIN SHOWERS TOOK THEIR TIME GETTING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TONIGHT
LOWER LEVELS WERE RATHER DRY PER THE OOZ DTX SOUNDING LAST NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AND
BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY SUPPORTING PRECIP...DRIER LOW LEVELS AND
BETTER FORCING TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP THINGS SOMEWHAT SUBDUED.
LATEST NAM IS SHOWING LESS OF A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH
OTHER MODELS SHOWING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO COME THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST HRRR IS ALSO JUST
ADVERTISING SCATTERED PRECIP WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THINGS START TO DRY OUT AS RIDING TAKES OVER.
THIS RIDING WILL HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN. TODAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS EASTERLY FLOW AND
CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS CONFINED IN THE UPPER 40S. TEMPS DO START TO
MODERATE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK
INTO THE 60S ALTHOUGH STILL ON THE COOL SIDE.

MARINE...

STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LEAD TO BUILDING WAVES
OVER LAKE HURON TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AS
WAVES BUILD INTO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE AT TIMES OVER MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON. THIS LOW WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND REMAIN POISED OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING WINDS AND
WAVE HEIGHTS TO DECREASE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN LIFT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF STEADY ONSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH
WAVE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME...MUCH LIKE THE
EVENT TODAY.

HYDROLOGY...

AN AREA OF RAINFALL WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE DRY LOW
LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL...SOME
LOCATIONS...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-69...MAY RECEIVE UP TO ONE QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STEADY RAINFALL WILL ONCE
AGAIN FOCUS SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...SS
MARINE.......DG
HYDROLOGY....DG

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

646 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...

AREA OF SHRAS WILL WORK NORTH THROUGH TERMINALS AS LIFT OVERSPREAD
AREA IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY. DRY LOW LEVEL WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING EVEN
AS -SHRAS INCREASE. EVENTUALLY...MID AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...MVFR
CIGS MAY BECOME MORE PREVALENT...BUT AT THE SAME TIME...RAIN WILL
ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE. MVFR/LOWER VFR CIGS WILL THEN PERSIST TONIGHT
WITH A FEW SHRAS PERSISTING ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHWEST INTO AREA FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE. WILL LEAVE DRY AT
THIS TIME AS BETTER COVERAGE WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING AS OPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH AREA AND
PROVIDES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT/FORCING ALONG THIS TROUGH.

FOR DTW...-SHRAS WILL WORK INTO TERMINAL AS THE FORECAST BEGINS WITH
CIGS LOWERING BELOW 5000 FEET WITH TIME. DRY LOW LEVELS AND LACK OF
UPPER SUPPORT WILL LEAD TO A SHRINKING AREA OF RAIN BY MIDDAY...BUT
CIGS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN LOWER VFR OR PERHAPS MVFR. PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KTS WILL BE
COMMON INTO MID AFTERNOON...WITH BACKING/DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH WITH CEILINGS FALLING BELOW 5000 FEET THIS MORNING AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH 20Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

DISCUSSION...

MARINE...

HYDROLOGY...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...SS
MARINE.......DG
HYDROLOGY....DG

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

328 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.MARINE...

.HYDROLOGY...

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1234 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

NO CHANGES IN TIMING WERE NEEDED FROM THE EARLIER TAF FORECASTS WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION ONSET. RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT NOTHING MORE
THAN VIRGA KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHGIAN AT
LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST 3 HOURS. LATEST HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE FALLEN
IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN REACHING THE
GROUND FOR DETROIT SHORTLY AROUND/AFTER 10Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL LIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING WITH THE RAIN
LOOKING TO MOVE OUT OF THE DETROIT TERMINALS BY 16Z. PRECIPIATION
END TIMES ARE LESS CERTAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS
THE AXIS OF DEEPER MIDLEVEL MOISTURE STALLS OVERHEAD WITHIN A
BROADER CORRIDOR OF STRETCHING DEFORMATION. LATEST MODEL DATA
SUPPORTS VERY POOR MOITURE QUALITY/DEEP SATURATION ISSUES THROUHGOUT
MUCH OF THE DAY. ATTM...CONFIDENCE IS SKEWED HIGHER THAT CIG HEIGHTS
WILL REMAIN VFR WITH SOME POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN ACTIVITY.
CONFIDENCE IS ALSO RELATIVELY HIGH THAT CIGS OF AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL
WILL HOLD OVER A GREATER PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AS THE
MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL ONLY BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE WEST...THUS RESULTING IN A CONTINUED FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR WARM
AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES.

FOR DTW...RAIN AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO START IMPACTING
THE TERMINAL AFTER 10Z...WITH SHOWER EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH BY THE
START OF THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AT THE MID LEVELS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH WITH CEILINGS FALLING BELOW 5000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH 00Z.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

DISCUSSION...SS
MARINE.......DG
HYDROLOGY....DG
AVIATION.....DG

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1234 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH WITH CEILINGS FALLING BELOW 5000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH 00Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 345 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

DISCUSSION...

AMPLE SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING UNDER CONTINUED LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. A BAND OF SHOWERS NOW EXTENDS FROM IOWA INTO SRN INDIANA.
THESE ARE RESULTING FROM MID LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER ERN NEBRASKA. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE
ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...THEN DAMPENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE
AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES LATE THURS NIGHT/EARLY FRI
MORNING. THIS WILL SLOWLY DRIVE THE MID LEVEL FRONT INTO FAR SW
LOWER MI TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS SE MI ON THURSDAY.

MODEL CROSS SECTIONS GENERALLY SUGGEST THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL
CIRCULATION SLOWLY LIFTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SYSTEM RELATIVE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO
BE QUITE GOOD ALONG THE FRONTAL SLOPE. THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
COMBINED WITH THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SUPPORT AMPLE MOISTURE
WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL SLOPE. WHILE THE NEAR STATIONARY HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF
DRY AIR UNDER LOW LEVEL NE FLOW...THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE MID LEVEL FRONT WILL BE ADEQUATE IN OVERCOMING THE DRY AIR.
THIS WILL SUPPORT FAIRLY HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE SOUTH OF THE MID LEVEL FRONT WILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR METRO DETROIT/ANN ARBOR
AND SOUTH THURS. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE PUSH
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE MID LEVEL FRONT WILL LIFT ALL THE WAY
INTO CENTRAL MI AND THE NRN THUMB THURS AFTERNOON...THE DEGREE OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FARTHER SOUTH RAISES CONCERNS THAT THE MORE
ACTIVE PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN FOCUSED SOUTH. THUS JUST
CHANCE TYPE POPS WILL BE MAINTAIN ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB ON THURS...WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE MID LEVEL FRONT WILL FRACTURE THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A
POOL OF RELATIVELY HIGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS SE MI INTO FRI MORNING. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT MID
LEVEL WAVE ALONG WITH THIS LINGERING MOISTURE WILL SUSTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THURS NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
THE UPPER WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST. IF THE MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINS MORE
OF A CLOSED FEATURE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION ENHANCEMENT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED
RAINFALL.

AN INCREASE IN THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...SUPPORTING MINS IN
THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE THUMB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN...AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND A DRY NORTHEAST SFC FLOW
SUGGEST ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY STUCK IN THE 40S ON
THURS. THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER WAVE TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY WILL
OFFER A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE DAY CLEARING. THIS WILL SUPPORT FCST
HIGHS INTO THE 50S DESPITE THE CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE SUGGEST ANOTHER INFLUX OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DAMPENING MID LEVEL WAVE FORECAST TO LIFT
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN. MOST PROBABLE TIMING BASED ON THE 12Z SUITE IS LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF
APRIL/EARLY MAY WILL PERSIST UNDER CONTINUED LIGHT NE FLOW THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL CAUSE NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WHILE WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND DIRECTION AND LONG FETCH OVER
THE LENGTH OF THE LAKES WILL CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET IN THESE AREAS...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO DECREASE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY...KEEPING
THE WEATHER QUIET.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN
LAKE ERIE THURSDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

HYDROLOGY...

AN AREA OF RAINFALL WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TOTAL
RAINFALL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 0.25 INCHES FROM THE FLINT AREA
SOUTHWARD. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL BEFORE 5 PM.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......HLO
HYDROLOGY....HLO

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

1256 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

00Z KINL SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY AND RAP SOUNDINGS HAVE
SHOWN VERY DRY AIR PRESENT BELOW 700 MB THIS EVENING. DESPITE
THIS DRY AIR...LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES...FROM FAR SOUTHERN CROW WING COUNTY INTO THE SIREN AREA AND
POINTS SOUTHEAST. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE
UPPER LOW IN WESTERN IOWA/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOME LOW LEVEL FGEN
WERE AIDING IN PRODUCING THE RAIN. THE FGEN IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WE ADJUSTED POPS OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREA
TONIGHT...AND MIX IN SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT AS WETBULB TEMPERATURES
DROP. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

AT 330 PM...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES VARIED CONSIDERABLY...WITH MID 50S IN MANY INLAND
LOCATIONS...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE SHORES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. AT 333
PM...GUSTS WERE 35 KNOTS AT SKY HARBOR IN DULUTH.

THE NORTHLAND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY BRING A BIT OF AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
SOME OF THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SPILLING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS IN THAT AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S INLAND AND 30S AND 40S LAKESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE NORTHLAND. 00Z FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH A 500MB
LOW DIGGING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. THIS LEAVES QUIET FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND... AND WILL ALLOW SFC DISTURBANCES TO PASS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH AS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM
THE HUDSON BAY. A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE MIX FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE PLACEMENT OF THE BROAD SFC HIGH WILL CREATE CLOCKWISE
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES... MEANING PROLONGED CHILLY EASTERLY FLOW
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NEAR THE LAKE AND
APPROACHING 60 FARTHER INLAND.

THE PATTERN CHANGES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ECMWF/GFS/DGEX INDICATE A CANADIAN DISTURBANCE
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHLAND. JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN AT
THIS TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THE GOOD NEWS IS... A WARM
UP IS IN SIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY... WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 70 BY MID WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS AT
KDLH/KBRD OVERNIGHT. GUSTS WILL DEVELOP AT KHIB AND KHYR AROUND
14Z...AND CONTINUE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KINL UNTIL 21Z-02Z. KHYR
AND KBRD MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT...AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER
AROUND KHYR UNTIL 21Z PER THE LATEST GFS/NAM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS POINT AS EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARDS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM WESTERN IOWA.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 32 44 32 51 / 10 10 0 0
INL 32 54 35 56 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 36 51 34 58 / 50 20 0 0
HYR 34 51 31 58 / 20 10 0 0
ASX 32 44 32 51 / 10 10 0 0

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ143>146.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LSZ141-142-147.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ148.

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...WL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

320 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE AN
MID-LEVEL LOW ALONG THE MN-IA BORDER AND AN UPSTREAM CYCLONE OVER
THE LOWER CO VALLEY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL
BUILD THROUGH THE N-CNTRL U.S. TONIGHT...PROMOTING THE MAINTENANCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SAME AREA. WHILE LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
INTO LOWER MO VALLEY...CONSENSUS OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z/FRIDAY.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION
OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO ERN
NE/KS AND WRN MO. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THESE
UPPER-AIR FEATURES WILL DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW FROM
WRN TX INTO NERN KS BY 12Z/SATURDAY...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY. HEIGHT
FALLS/DCVA ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
YIELD AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
CWA TOMORROW (FRI) WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE SHIFTING
EWD/SEWD AND BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO A BROADER-SCALE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THE MID-
LEVEL COLD POOL AND LOCALLY ENHANCED VORTICITY ATTENDANT TO THIS
SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. GIVEN THE
ALREADY SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS...CONSIDERABLE RUN OFF IS
EXPECTED...RESULTING IN RISING AREA RIVERS. THE CLOUDY...WET
CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO STUNT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...FEATURING A LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA. IN THE
WEST...A REX BLOCK WILL TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WHICH
WILL SHIFT FROM THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE CNTRL U.S. BY LATE NEXT
WEEK. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON
HIGHS...GENERALLY DECREASING CLOUDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME DIURNAL LIFTING...THE RAP SEEMS TO HOLD ON TO THE CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE CIGS ARE LIMITED HEATING. THE SHORTWAVE
PULLS AWAY TONIGHT...HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN. KOFK
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING MVFR AND COULD LOWER TO
IFR AFTER 06Z. AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES KOMA AND KLNK SHOULD
LIFT TO VFR CIGS FL050-070 WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
FRIDAY.

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

103 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AFTER A VERY BUSY DAY YESTERDAY...MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AS WE RELOAD FOR MORE RAIN. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE CWA AT 00Z AND IS FORECAST TO OPEN INTO
A WEAKER SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES EAST/NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. REMAINING SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
DAY.

OUR NEXT UPPER LOW TO TAKE AIM AT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY DIGGING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PCPN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. IF THE NAM VERIFIES...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA WOULD BE DRY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT WORKS
IT`S WAY INTO THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS CONSIDERS THIS SOLUTION AN
OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP HITTING THE POPS HARD OVER THE WEEKEND FOR
ALL AREAS. WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
HIGH...WILL NEED TO MONITOR HYDRO CLOSELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND MAY
PHASE IN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. PCPN WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY UNTIL THIS FEATURE PASSES EAST
OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK IS TRENDING DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NATION`S MID SECTION.

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

102 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SANDHILLS HAS SHOWN
LITTLE MOTION FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SHORT RANGE MODEL
CONSENSUS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS SUGGESTS IT WILL DRIFT NORTH
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WARM
SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY RISE INTO THE 40S. THE RAP MODEL WAS THE COOLEST
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. AN AREA OF MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN AZ THIS
MORNING. THIS MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN EAST WEST BAND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SWRN NEB LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER FORCING DEVELOPS TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE. THE BETTER RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE
800MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE NAM WAS EVEN
SUGGESTING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AS DEEP LIFT
TAPS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND DYNAMICALLY COOLS THE ATM. THIS
FEATURE IS UNDER REVIEW.

NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS SHOWN IN THE NAM AND K INDICES REMAIN IN
THE 20S INDICATING NO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MID RANGE...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OFF THE FRONT
RANGE AND ESSENTIALLY STALLS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.

FOR FRIDAY... LOWERED MAX TEMPS AREA WIDE BY 1-2 DEGREES. THE MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH CAA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER. H85 TEMPS HOVER AROUND 0C COMPARED TO 2C
ON THURSDAY. INCREASED POPS EARLIER IN THE DAY... ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST NEB. MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING IS QUITE STRONG AND SATURATION
IN THE 500-700HPA LAYER OCCURS FOR ALL AREAS BUT EXTREME NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY 12Z. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
AND LIFT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE OR STEADY RAIN AT KLBF
BEFORE 12Z... BUT GFS AND EURO ARE A TAD SLOWER.

FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY... EXPANDED RASN TO COVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA... GENERALLY TO HWY 83. TEMPERATURES ARE
TRICKY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S... BUT SUBFREEZING TEMPS
EXIST NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SURFACE. NAM IS COLDEST WITH A TEMP
PROFILE SUGGESTING ALL SNOW AS FAR EAST AS KLBF... BUT GFS SOUNDINGS
ARE WARMER IN THE LOWEST 200HPA AND SUGGEST ALL RAIN OR RASN. THE
POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR ALL SNOW... ESPECIALLY IF DYNAMIC
COOLING PROVIDES THE EXTRA OOMPF. GIVEN THE COOL/COLD AIR ALREADY
SITTING OVER THE AREA... FELT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A WINTRY
MIX. NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP SATURATION AND
OMEGA >20US FRIDAY PM ACROSS THE AREA... AND ENSEMBLES SHOW MIXING
RATIOS WELL ABOVE CLIMO...SUGGESTING LIQUID PRECIP TOTALS OF AT
LEAST 1-2 INCHES ARE ATTAINABLE.

SATURDAY... COOLED HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO DUE TO CONTINUED CLOUDINESS
AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AS SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION AND
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A BROAD REGION OF LIFT. REMOVED
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION SAT PM AS MUCAPE MAXES OUT AROUND 100J/KG
AND LIFTED INDEX REMAINS POSITIVE. EXPANDED RASN EAST AGAIN TO ABOUT
THE NEB HWY 61 CORRIDOR SAT NIGHT.

LONG RANGE...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER LOW BEGINS ITS
TREK EAST AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SLOW TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
SCALED BACK POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE DOESNT SEEM AS
WIDESPREAD. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE FIRST PUNCH OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR
SUNDAY PM ACROSS THE NORTH... AND EURO MID LEVEL FGEN/MOISTURE
REALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY. STRONG WAA TAKES HOLD TUESDAY AS H85 TEMPS
SURPASS 10C ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA UNDER A DOWNSLOPE REGIME. FURTHER
WARMING OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR 15C WITH A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE. MOISTURE IS SPARSE FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS. RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

FLOOD GUIDANCE ERN LINCOLN...FRONTIER COUNTY AND CUSTER
COUNTY IS LOW...LESS THAN 3 INCHES IN 6 HOURS. THESE AREAS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
IS LIKELY WITH 3 DAY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...TAYLOR
HYDROLOGY...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

632 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS SHOWN IN THE NAM AND K INDICES REMAIN IN
THE 20S INDICATING NO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MID RANGE...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OFF THE FRONT
RANGE AND ESSENTIALLY STALLS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. VFR/MVFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
TODAY.

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MVFR THIS EVENING WITH EAST AND
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT...RAIN AND
IFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE INTO SWRN NEB.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

351 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS SHOWN IN THE NAM AND K INDICES REMAIN IN
THE 20S INDICATING NO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MID RANGE...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OFF THE FRONT
RANGE AND ESSENTIALLY STALLS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...CLEAR SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT AGL BY MORNING. BY LATE MORNING
THURSDAY...CIGS WILL RISE TO 5000 FT AGL. ON THURSDAY
EVENING...LOOK FOR CIGS TO LOWER TO 2500 FT AGL. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...EXPECT LIFR AND IFR CONDS THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY
WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 200 THROUGH 700 FT AGL. CIGS BY LATE
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 1500 TO 2000 FT AGL AT THE TERMINAL AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...BUTTLER
HYDROLOGY...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

840 PM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM SET TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL UNTIL
A WARMING TREND COMMENCES NEXT WEEK AS THINGS DRY OUT. ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING A COOLING
TREND AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE.

.UPDATE...COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES EVIDENT
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING ARE SIGNALING THE APPROACH OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER MOVING IN. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THIS ENERGY NOW APPROACHING RENO WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE JET
DYNAMICS MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT TO SEE
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN PERHAPS EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN CLARK
COUNTY AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE IN EASTERN INYO COUNTY AND STRONG
LIFT MOVING IN WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR. BOOSTED POPS UPWARDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND INCREASED THEM
FOR THE I-15 CORRIDOR FROM BARSTOW TO MESQUITE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW
INCHES OF SNOWFALL ABOVE 7500 FEET IS ALSO LIKELY BY SUNRISE ACROSS
THE SPRING AND SHEEP RANGE.

-OUTLER-

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WEST OR SOUTHWEST WIND AT OR BELOW 10 KTS
THE REST OF THIS EVENING ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON SOUTHERN NEVADA. IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE AROUND THE VALLEY AS SOON AS MIDNIGHT WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 09Z THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT IN LOWERING CIGS WITH MINIMUM CIGS POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 4KFT TO 5KFT WITH CIGS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 10KFT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT ICING AROUND 10KFT WITH
TURBULENCE CONCERNS ESPECIALLY AROUND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY NORTHERLY...AND MAY WOBBLE
BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...STRONG WEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT
/KDAG/ TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS KICKING UP ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY BEFORE BOTH AREAS TURN MORE NORTHERLY. KDAG WILL LIKELY
TURN BY MID MORNING...WITH THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION
FROM NORTH OVERNIGHT TO SOUTH BY LATE MORNING...AND LINGER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CIGS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10KFT TO POSSIBLY AS LOW
AS 4KFT OR SO AROUND SHOWERS. PLENTY OF SUPERCOOLED WATER EXPECTED
TO CREATE ICING CONCERNS AROUND 10KFT WITH HIGHER ALTITUDES AROUND
SHOWERS. &&

-BKP-

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON PRETTY MUCH WHERE
EXPECTED...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF LAS VEGAS AND OVER THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL MOVE IN
QUICKLY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND ALREADY CENTERED SOUTH
OF HAVASU BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN DEPICTING. SHOWERS AND VERY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD TO A BIT SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS BY LATE
TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SATURDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF LINCOLN...CLARK
AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS FROM THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT ARE
REMAINING A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE BUT THERE COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOWFALL ABOVE 8000 FEET WITH MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW AT
THE MT. CHARLESTON FIRE STATION.

WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE IN SOME AREAS AS THE LOW MOVES IN. THE
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WILL INITIALLY GET
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY
ACROSS INYO...ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES
SOLID WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THESE AREAS AND SOME HI-RES
OUTPUT ALSO SUPPORTS WINDS THAT STRONG. SO...I ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOCATIONS AND TIMES.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME DECREASE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
SUNDAY AND WITH SOME DAY TIME HEATING MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. THE
UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY. OBVIOUSLY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LOW AND SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN A LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AND CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

AS THE WEEKEND SYSTEM EXITS...MONDAY WILL SEE SUFFICIENT LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. THE RIDGE AXIS THEN MOVES OVER
THE REGION TUESDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY SPINS UP INTO A
BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE RIDGE IS
ACTUALLY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES ALL
THE WAY UP THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEFORE HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM AND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN INYO COUNTY
THURSDAY THEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO ZONES WEST AND
NORTH OF LAS VEGAS BY FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

SHORT TERM...HARRISON
AVIATION...STEELE
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
607 PM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 110 PM PDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Main change to the ongoing forecast was to issue
Lake Wind Advisories for Saturday for Lake Tahoe, Pyramid Lake,
and lakes in Mono County, including but not limited to Crowley.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...

AVIATION...

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM PDT Saturday NVZ002-004.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM PDT Saturday CAZ072-073.

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

635 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
A COUPLE OF DRY FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL REAPPEAR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY...A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND POINTS
SOUTH WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGETOWN COUNTY.
ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE N OF THE
AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ONGOING CONVECTION.

A FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDING
FROM NEAR DANVILLE VA TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH CAROLINA NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IS MOVING
EASTWARD AND MAY LINK UP WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. MODELS PAINT A VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES...BUT IT APPEARS
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING ESE WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...FOLLOWING
THE FRONT DOWN INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING THE FORECAST AREA BEING
BRUSHED BY CONVECTION TO THE N LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUS WILL HOLD ONTO POPS WELL INTO THE NIGHT...BUT KEEP THE POPS
LOW END FOR NOW GIVEN THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE HAD SUFFICIENT TIME
TO STABILIZE BY THE TIME THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ROLLS THIS FAR S
AND E. STABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN ADVECTING SOUTHWARD AS THE SURFACE FRONT
DROPS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST BY
OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...WITH THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY MORNING...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR
INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90
DEGREES IN FLORENCE! THE SEABREEZE WILL BE DELAYED BY THE OFFSHORE
WIND AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BEACHES TO WARM TO 80 DEGREES OR
BETTER BEFORE THE SEABREEZE FINALLY FORMS AROUND 2-3 PM.

WINDS WILL BE QUICK TO VEER EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BEHIND
THIS FRONT DOES NOT BUILD APPRECIABLY SOUTHWARD. THIS VEERING LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...LEADING TO GRADUALLY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY. IT`S WORTH NOTING THE
12Z NAM IS MUCH MORE MOIST (AND CLOUDIER) AND THEREFORE MUCH COOLER
WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS. GIVEN THE COOL
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND PREDICTED ON BOTH MODELS THE 12Z GFS HIGHS LOOK
TOO WARM REGARDLESS OF WHAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TURNS OUT TO BE.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND EVENTUALLY THE CAROLINAS BY
SATURDAY. AS MOISTURE DEEPENS THIS COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF I-95...PERHAPS BECOMING
A BIT MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME
SEMBLANCE OF POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WPC CONTINUES
TO PREFER A SOLUTION WITH A GOOD DEAL OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLES MIXED IN. THE GFS IS GENERALLY DRIER.

A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD GIVE SURFACE FEATURES MORE
PUSH. THE HIGHEST POPS OCCUR SUNDAY WITH AN INITIAL WAVE AND TUESDAY
WHEN A SECOND WAVE MOVES BY. CERTAINLY NO EXTENDED PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE EXPECTED BUT WPC QPF FOR DAYS 4-7 ARE NEAR TWO INCHES.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS TRENDED DOWN A LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE BUT STILL OVERALL AVERAGES ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...COULD GET A LITTLE INTERESTING OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR MODEL
CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A MCS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CWA AFTER 03Z. IT EVEN HAS EXPANDED A BIT TO INCLUDE LBT. WILL INTRODUCE
THUNDER AT LBT AND ILM AFTER 04Z. THE MODEL DOES WEAKEN IT AS IT REACHES
THE COAST...HOWEVER THESE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MOVING SYSTEMS SEEM
TO HOLD TOGETHER LONGER...PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE MCS. AFTER PASSAGE...LOOK
FOR MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS WITH PERHAPS SOME FRACTUS. AFTER DAYBREAK
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY NORTHWEST...BECOMING VARIABLE BY
MIDDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY...A FRONT STALLED IN NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA WILL GET A KICK SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT...PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SW WINDS WILL VEER TO
WSW LATER THIS EVE AND THEN TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH LATE EVE AND THEN DECREASING TO
10 KT OR LESS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. INTENSE SOLAR HEATING INLAND
SHOULD HELP DEVELOP AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WITH NEARSHORE WINDS
TURNING ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE HIGH BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT DOESN`T DIG SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS...ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY VEER EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...A MODEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL INITIALLY BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS.
BY MONDAY A FRONT MOVING CLOSER INCREASES THE GRADIENT AND BACKS
THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST A BIT. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT.
THE FRONT EASES ACROSS EARLY TUESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING ESSENTIALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET. THERE COULD
BE A FEW FIVE FOOTERS MIXED IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY AS WELL.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

310 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TODAY... AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK
EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT.

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM WEDNESDAY...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYNOPTIC FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY/CENTRAL VA AND THROUGH FAR NORTHEAST NC... A FUNCTION
OF THE COOLER MARINE AIR DRIVING THE FRONT SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER WIDESPREAD STORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF NC HAVE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDOR... RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHT TEMP
DROP TO ITS NORTH BUT STILL VERY WARM AND HUMID. THE HRRR DID A GOOD
JOB IN RECENT RUNS... RESTRICTING THE HIGH SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH... EVEN CORRECTLY DEVELOPING ISOLATED
CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN... SO
HAVE LARGELY RELIED ON IT FOR THIS UPDATE. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT... WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...
SOMETHING LIKELY TO BE LACKING ACROSS THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... A TREND
TO BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE NEAR DAYBREAK WITH THE
ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE/MCV FROM THE SW
AND IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS / RECENT
TRENDS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE... HAVE NUDGED UP LOWS TO 63-67. -GIH

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE BOTH SETTING UP TO BE DRIER AS THE
MAIN LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC LEAVING BEHIND A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC. IT WILL
TURN COOLER ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND... AND
BRIEFLY EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN TO SHOW THE COOLING ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH WITH 70S EXPECTED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER RANGING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE
NC/SC BORDER COUNTIES. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... IT
SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY... THEN EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDINESS SATURDAY. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN LATE IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. WE WILL NOT BIT
ON THAT JUST YET. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXPECTED. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NOW LOOK TO BE WET WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ON SUNDAY. MODELS OFTEN
SCOUR OUT CAD TOO QUICKLY... EVEN IN THE SPRING (WARM SEASON). THIS
LOOKS TO BE A GREAT CASE OF THAT OVER OUR PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION
SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF WAA RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
OUR REGION WITH AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF WESTERN ATLANTIC THEN GULF
MOISTURE THAT WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE DEVELOPING FRONT/THEN COOL
STABLE DOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AND USING THE ENSEMBLE APPROACH ALONG WITH PATTERN
RECOGNITION... THE MAIN PARENT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NE FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE IN OUR REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUT AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY... A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS
SUNDAY. HOWEVER... IN-SITU/HYBRID CAD WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
STABILITY AND THE DIABATIC PROCESS SHOULD THE RAIN BECOME WIDESPREAD
AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER HIGHS IN THE 60S
NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE BETWEEN 0.25 TO
0.75 FOR THE QPF. THERE MAY BE A RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
AND RAINFALL GRADIENT FROM SE TO NW FROM CLINTON TO WINSTON-SALEM BY
LATE SUNDAY IF THE WARM FRONT CAN SURGE INTO THE SE ZONES (PER SOME
OF THE MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST EC).

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THEN WHEN THE FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH... IT MOSTLY
LIKELY WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES INTO TUESDAY.
FOR THOSE THAT NEED RAINFALL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES... THIS LOOKS
TO BE A GREAT SHOT AT BOTH.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF S/WS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CAUSE
BOUTS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CENTRAL NC. THE FIRST MINOR S/W WILL
CROSS NEAR OR NORTH OF OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. THE COOL
POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED
T-STORMS...PRIMARILY OVER OUR NE PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BUT QUICKLY SCOOT EAST BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN APPROACHING S/W TRAVERSING THE DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY SHOULD
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...LEADING TO AREAS OF RAIN
BREAKING OUT OVER OUR REGION BY SUNDAY. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HYBRID/INSITU COLD AIR DAMMING
EVENT...SUGGESTING TEMPS WELL BE LOW NORMAL IF THE RAIN DEVELOPS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ADVERTISING A PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WITH A
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE AND EASTERN US.S TROUGH. DISTURBANCES IN THE
AMPLIFYING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WILL BE A LITTLE SHY OF
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 850 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 64 IS PROGGED BY THE LATEST HRRR TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
28/06Z BEFORE LIFTING NORTH INTO VA LATER OVERNIGHT. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT THAT`S CURRENTLY ALONG THE
NC/VA BORDER. AS SUCH THROUGH 28/12Z...KINT/KGSO...ALONG WITH
KRWI...WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A PASSING SHOWER WITH
BRIEFLY SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBY. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.

FROM 28/15Z THROUGH 29/00Z...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...SOME
RESULTING IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC AHEAD
AND ALONG OF THE WX DISTURBANCE THAT`S CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. BRIEF WIND GUSTS AOA 35KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

LOOKING AHEAD: DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
...BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS RETURN FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FROM POTENTIAL CAD.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...RAH/CBL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

1055 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION
EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1445Z...HAVE ANALYZED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
FROM ATHENS TO PARKERSBURG/MARIETTA...CLARKSBURG...GRAFTON.
SO A LARGE NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED LATE
AFTERNOON BETWEEN SAY PIT AND CRW. WITH THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
AND THE FORECAST MODEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...EXPECT NEW ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION TO FORM 18Z TO 21Z AND LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING.
DILEMNA IS HOW FAR SOUTH... THINKING THE HTS-CRW-BKW CORRIDOR MAY BE
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS MORE ENHANCED COVERAGE. SO WILL DRAW
SOME LIKELY POPS FROM HTS-CRW-BKW ON NORTH TOWARD THE FRONT FOR 20Z
INTO THIS EVENING...LINGERING THE LONGEST ALONG THE FRONT IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

DUE TO THE PAST RAINS OF 3 DAYS...AFTER COORDINATING WITH OUR
HYDROLOGIST...WE WILL BE CONSIDERING A SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THOSE WETTEST COUNTIES. WE
WANT TO SEE THE NEW INITIATION/CONVECTION TRENDS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. OF COURSE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 30 THSD FT ON
THE RAP...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS TOO.

LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS FIGURES ON FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...AS COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ADVECTED SOUTH AS 925 MB FLOW TURNS NW.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR ALL BUT NORTHEASTERN WV.

MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. WILL PULL
HIGHER POPS FORWARD INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEERY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
THE 12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PUT A LOT OF WEIGHT ON HRRR GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NEAR
TERM...AS CONDITIONS HAVE EVOLVED OVERNIGHT.

NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME GETTING OUT OF
MVFR STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THESE AREAS WITH A COLD FRONT
STALLING FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

EXPECTING MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE. NO PREVAILING FOR THESE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING EXCEPT FOR CKB AND EKN WHERE THE HIGHER CHANCES
EXIST.

HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AFTER 03Z...SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY
CLEAR WHICH COULD ALLOW VALLEY FOG TO FORM LATE. THIS IS REFLECTED
WITH DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST. CLEARING/FOG MAY
VARY LATE TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

641 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION
EXPECTED. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
WAVES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA...BUT IS LARGELY
LIGHT IN NATURE. AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE HANDLING THE WATER OK
AT THIS HOUR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WHILE THE BETTER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...ATMOSPHERE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. THAT...AND OLD BOUNDARIES FROM THE DECAYING CONVECTION
MOVING THROUGH...SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MEANS FOR INITIATION FOR
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE QUESTION
IS THE COVERAGE/FREQUENCY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

INFLATED NAM DEWPOINTS GIVE QUITE A BIT OF SURFACE BASED CAPE
TODAY DURING MAX HEATING HOURS IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. EVEN
IF THOSE VALUES ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE...INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE
AN ISSUE/LIMITING FACTOR TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

PWATS SHOULD COME DOWN GIVEN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING IN THE
FORECAST...BELOW 1 INCH...BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO AROUND 10KFT TODAY...ADDING TO A HAIL
THREAT. DRY LEVELS ALOFT ADD TO THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL WITH
STORMS.

TURNING TO THE FLOODING THREAT...CWA HAS SEEN PLENTY OF RAIN TO GO
AROUND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED
INTO THE SHORT TERM. NOT PLANNING ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
NOW...AS MOVING CONVECTION SHOULD NOT CAUSE ISSUES. HOWEVER...ANY
SORT OF CELL TRAINING OR MULTIPLE HITS WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO
CREATE ISSUES. STEERING FLOW OF 30-40 KTS SHOULD HELP MOVE
CONVECTION IN AND OUT OF AREAS FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR ALL BUT NORTHEASTERN WV.

MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. WILL PULL
HIGHER POPS FORWARD INTO SATURDAY.

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PUT A LOT OF WEIGHT ON HRRR GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NEAR
TERM...AS CONDITIONS HAVE EVOLVED OVERNIGHT.

EXPECTING MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE. NO PREVAILING FOR THESE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING EXCEPT FOR CKB AND EKN WHERE THE HIGHER CHANCES
EXIST.

HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AFTER 03Z...SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY
CLEAR WHICH COULD ALLOW VALLEY FOG TO FORM LATE. THIS IS REFLECTED
WITH DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST. CLEARING/FOG MAY
VARY LATE TONIGHT.

UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M L L M M M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M L L M M M M M M M M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

1232 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING ACROSS W OK...AS TSRA
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM ARRIVE FROM THE W. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE COMING N FROM TX WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND
TSRA OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING TO MOST OF N TX AND OK. A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO S OK TOMORROW MORNING...WITH
LOW CLOUDS AROUND IT...AND TSRA OCCURRING MAINLY TO THE NW OF IT.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
W...AND OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE...CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW. AREAS S OF
THE WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY NOT INCLUDE ANY TAF SITES BEFORE 18Z
TOMORROW...SHOULD SEE CLEARING...FOLLOWED BY NEW TSRA DEVELOPMENT
LATER IN THE DAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR MOST
OF THESE FEATURES...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR GOOD WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

UPDATE...
DECREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. INCREASED HIGHS TODAY SLIGHTLY
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL MAY OCCUR TONIGHT.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATED LITTLE CLOUD COVER OVER
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THUS...THINK HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO GOOD HEATING IN A
DRY AIRMASS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
PANHANDLES MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOM AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AS EARLY AS 7 PM THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN HAZARD THIS EVENING...THOUGH
THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL STAY OVER THE PANHANDLES. BASED ON
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...STORM COVERAGE BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT MAY
BE LIMITED. THUS...DECREASED RAIN CHANCES A BIT THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN NORTH TEXAS AND/OR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THESE ELEVATED STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS AS WELL.

PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS LURKING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND WILL BEGIN SPREADING NORTH AGAIN TODAY. THE MAIN PUSH OF
MOISTURE WILL BE INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AND INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AS SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS BOTH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIME AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE... AND ALSO
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. PRECIP FROM BOTH AREAS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
OVER THE FRONTAL ZONE.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN TOMORROW...
ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL OF INTENSITY IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE PASSAGE OF A FIRST WAVE. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
EVEN IN THE MORNING. PRECIP COVERAGES DECREASES FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY... BUT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE APPROACHES THE 100TH
MERIDIAN AROUND 00Z TOMORROW. THE MAIN QUESTIONS ARE... HOW MUCH
RECOVERY AND DESTABILIZATION WILL THERE BE AFTER THE EARLY
STORMS... WHERE WILL THE WARM FRONT BE LOCATED... AND HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL BE ANY POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT. THERMODYNAMIC AND
SHEAR PROFILES FROM THE NAM AND TO SOME EXTEND THE GFS POINT TO A
POTENT COMBINATION OF SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS... BUT THIS IS
STILL HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON THE ANSWERS TO THE QUESTIONS ABOVE.
WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE ZONES /BOTH THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING/... BUT THE SPECIFIC
POTENTIAL FOR WHAT TO EXPECT IN SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW IS NOT
COMPLETELY APPARENT YET.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 57 76 53 / 0 60 70 50
HOBART OK 78 58 79 49 / 10 70 70 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 83 61 84 53 / 0 60 60 20
GAGE OK 72 52 70 44 / 20 70 70 40
PONCA CITY OK 73 55 74 53 / 0 50 70 70
DURANT OK 85 62 78 61 / 0 60 80 60

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

17/23/23

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORMAN OK

1104 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
DECREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. INCREASED HIGHS TODAY SLIGHTLY
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

.DISCUSSION...
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL MAY OCCUR TONIGHT.

PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

MBS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 57 76 53 / 0 60 70 50
HOBART OK 78 58 79 49 / 10 70 70 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 83 61 84 53 / 0 60 60 20
GAGE OK 72 52 70 44 / 10 70 70 40
PONCA CITY OK 73 55 74 53 / 0 50 70 70
DURANT OK 85 62 78 61 / 0 60 80 60

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

17/23

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1033 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL...BUT GENERALLY
DRY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY LOOK FOR THE RAIN TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE FORECAST AREA WITH EVEN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG THROWN ON
FOR GOOD MEASURE OVER THE RIDGETOPS.

BLENDED/CONSENSUS SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF PA...GIVEN
THE PROJECTED LOW LEVEL LIFTED INDICES PROGGED OVER THE
REGION...SO HIGHS WITH THE OFF AND ON RAIN SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 50S...WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL.

BASED ON 18Z/00Z OPER AND LATEST 03Z SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH 12 HOUR POP GRIDS - NEAR 100 PCT ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL DURING THE LATE AM HOURS
ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE
COUNTIES. BLENDED MODEL QPF INDICATING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN IS LIKELY BY THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
MOIST EAST TO SERLY LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS 12 HOUR PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
SEE SLIGHTLY OVER ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOW TEMPS EARLY FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE U30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...TO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST OTHER PLACES.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP.

UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE U40S ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH...AND LOWER
TO MID ELSEWHERE.

MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.

THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE THU-FRIDAY SYSTEM.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...JUST MINOR. 06Z GFS WAS DRY
COMPARED TO THE 00Z EC. MAIN THING I DID WAS TO GO MAINLY
DRY LATER TUE...AND NOT REAL HIGH WITH POPS ON WED. SUPERBLEND
TEMPS FOR WED LOOK GOOD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REAL COLD AIR
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX NOT FAR AWAY...AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WED. THE 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH
WITH KEEPING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AS
I HAVE SEEN LATELY.

INTERESTING TO NOTE...LAST MAY STARTED OFF WARM...NEW 12Z EC FOR
DAY 10 LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER THIS YR.

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE AREA OF RAIN AND LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVER SOUTHWESTERN
PA WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FLYING AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

746 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN-UP FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL...BUT GENERALLY DRY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES
IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAIN COULD LINGER INTO LATE
MONDAY OR EARLY TUE.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11Z UPDATE...ONSET TIMING OF STEADY LIGHT TO MDT RAIN PRETTY MUCH
UNCHANGED (11-13Z INVOF KJST AND KAOO...14-16Z KBFD TO KUNV AND
KMDT...THEN 15-18Z IN THE NE COUNTIES) AND CONTINUES TO FOLLOW A
BLEND OF RADAR EXTRAP...RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SOME SMALLER AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE STEADIER RAIN AND WILL
SPEED UP THE ONSET TIMING IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISC...

A SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN AS IT
ADVANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MISS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL HEAD ENE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND BRING AN AREA
OF WARM ADVECTION/UVVEL UP AN OVER A QUASI STNRY BOUNDARY SITUATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE. PERIODS OF COLD RAIN WILL BE
THE RESULT TODAY.

FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY -DZ/SPRINKLES
(THAT WERE NOTED ON RADAR AND BEING REPORTED BY SPOTTERS) OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SC MTNS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WAS RESULTING
IN RAP SFC-850 RH VALUES CLOSE TO 100 PCT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MDT RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE THE SW HALF OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING ...AND
BEGIN IN THE 17-20Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE REGION NE OF KIPT PER A
BLEND OF THE LATEST 00Z OPER GUIDANCE...03Z SREF AND HRRR.

EARLIER THIN SPOTS IN THE CIRRUS SHIELD...ALONG WITH LGT NERLY SFC
WIND ALLOWED TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MTNS...WHILE READINGS IN THE M/U40S WERE COMMON ELSEWHERE.

BASED ON 18Z/00Z OPER AND LATEST 03Z SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH 12 HOUR POP GRIDS - NEAR 100 PCT ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. AGAIN..MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL DURING THE LATE AM
HOURS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTN ACROSS
THE NE COUNTIES. BLENDED MODEL QPF INDICATING ARND A QUARTER INCH
OF RAIN IS LIKELY BY THIS EVENING.

LOW TEMPS EARLY FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE U30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...TO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST OTHER PLACES.

UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE U40S ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH...AND LOWER
TO MID ELSEWHERE.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.

THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE THU-FRIDAY SYSTEM.

INTERESTING TO NOTE...LAST MAY STARTED OFF WARM...NEW 12Z EC FOR
DAY 10 LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER THIS YR.

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE IS BEGINNING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. JST IS DOWN TO IFR IN LOW STRATOCU. EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST...REACHING AOO BY
13Z...TO MDT...LNS AND UNV BY 14Z AND IPT AND BFD BY 15Z. THE LOW
STRATO CU SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED. MVFR TO IFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

706 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

...PREVIOUS DISC...