Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/29/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LITTLE ROCK AR

255 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH AR. THEN NEXT
CHANCE OF STORMS LATER FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

DID LOWER AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE STATE DUE TO LACK OF
LIFT...BUT STILL KEPT SOME IN DUE TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH. THE FRONT WAS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN OK...WITH A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO THE OK AND AR STATE LINE. SO FAR HAVE SEE
SOME CU DEVELOPMENT BUT HAS BEEN LIMITED IN ITS COVERAGE. SW
SURFACE WINDS HAVE KEPT DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WHILE MORNING KLIT SOUNDING DID HAVE A PACKET OF DRIER AIR
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 7K FEET. DUE TO LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL LIFT CONVECTION HAS HELD OFF SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ESPECIALLY THE HRRR SHOWS VERY LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH AR. ALOFT
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN KS...WITH THE
MAIN DYNAMICS HAVING LIFTED TO THE NE OF AR. TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE FORECAST WILL START WITH A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE
FIRST PERIOD...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AR
THIS LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. FACTORS HAVE LOWERED FOR ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT. TONIGHT
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES OUT OF AR...A BIT COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FILTER IN OVER AR ON THURSDAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND MILD
DAY WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
WILL START THEN THE WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH OF AR WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
AS SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOCK THE
LOW PRESSURE FROM MAKING MUCH EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AND
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY.

A FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY BUT WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY
AND BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARD WESTERN
ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH ARKANSAS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 70S AND 80S.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 58 82 58 73 / 20 0 10 40
CAMDEN AR 60 86 64 76 / 20 10 10 70
HARRISON AR 54 79 54 71 / 20 0 10 60
HOT SPRINGS AR 58 84 62 74 / 20 10 10 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 60 85 61 75 / 20 10 10 60
MONTICELLO AR 64 85 65 79 / 30 10 10 70
MOUNT IDA AR 56 84 61 73 / 20 10 20 70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 55 81 56 72 / 20 0 10 40
NEWPORT AR 60 83 59 75 / 30 0 10 40
PINE BLUFF AR 62 85 63 77 / 20 10 10 60
RUSSELLVILLE AR 56 84 60 74 / 20 0 10 60
SEARCY AR 60 83 59 75 / 20 0 10 50
STUTTGART AR 63 84 62 76 / 30 10 10 50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...51

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

351 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

...SOME SNOW TONIGHT...MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW (AND RAIN) STARTING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER S CALIF AND WAS MOVING IN A E-
SE DIRECTION. LOCALLY...QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE CO
WEST SLOPE AND OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION. THESE SHOWERS WERE DUE
PRIMARILY TO REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...ALTHOUGH THE
SHOWERS OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION ARE DUE IN PART TO INCREASING
UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE MODEST WITH READING IN THE
LOW 60S OVER FAR E CLO WHILE 50S WERE NOTED IN THE PIKES PEAK
REGION. 40S AND 50S WERE NOTED IN THE VALLEYS WITH 30S MAINLY IN THE
MTNS.

TONIGHT...

MAIN CONCERN IS WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP WHICH IS LIKELY GOING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PARTS OF THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THIS IS
GOING TO HAPPEN...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS VARY MODEL TO MODEL. HRRR HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT ON THIS OCCURRING OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION
SINCE I WALKED IN THE DOOR THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH ITS QPF VALUES MAY
BE A BIT HIGH...BELIEVE THIS LOCATION IS REASONABLE AS LLVL UPSLOPE
WILL INCREASE AS PRESSURES START TO FALL AND SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL
WINDS (~700 MB INCREASE). IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COULD OCCUR IN TELLER COUNTY AND 1-3" COULD FALL ON GRASSY AREAS IN
N EL PASO COUNTY. CANT RULE OUT THE ROADS BECOMING SLICK IN SOME
PLACES AS IT HAS BEEN COOL AND THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. LIKEWISE...WE MAY SEE A "NUISANCE " WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
PIKES PEAK REGION TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A
CALIF STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE REGION AND MOISTURE ALOFT
INCREASES. 1-2" OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

THURSDAY...

BY 12Z THURSDAY...THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED VICINITY OF LAS
VEGAS. MODEST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION AND SNOW
AND VALLEY SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE SNOW
WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS THE LOW
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE CENTER
OF THE MID LVL LOW WILL BE LOCATED VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS AND
DEEP S- SW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE. PRECIP WILL START TO
BECOME HEAVIER ACROSS THE S MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DEEP UPSLOPE
FLOW IMPINGES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A THETA-E AXIS MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE OKLA PANHANDLE. THIS THETA-E AXIS WILL
INCREASE THE CAPE OVER THE PLAINS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

WINTER STORM WATCHES GO INTO EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
ALL THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT NOON
TOMORROW...WITH WINTER STORM WATCHES GOING INTO EFFECT OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN (INCLUDING N EL PASO
COUNTY) AT 6 PM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

ACTIVE LONGER PATTERN ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDING BUT NOT
LIMITED TO TEMPERATURES...POPS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AT TIMES
AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION/HIGHER TERRAIN TIGHT GRADIENT SNOW
AMOUNTS.

RECENT LONGER RANGE PV ANALYSIS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT 06Z FRIDAY WILL SHIFT ACROSS
COLORADO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...IMPACTING THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
WET CONDITIONS...INCLUDING HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.

HAVE ISSUED/ADJUSTED/EXPANDED EARLIER WINTER STORM WATCH TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST PROJECTED TRACK/IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A VERY TIGHT SNOW GRADIENT EXPECTED
AROUND 7000 FEET...PRIMARILY FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS NEEDED.

ALSO...SOME STRONGER TO POTENTIALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FRIDAY.

THEN...NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA WITH UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NEXT CLOSED
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AT 00Z SUNDAY SHIFTS INTO
THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY 00Z MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING.

FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES(ESPECIALLY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES) ARE ANTICIPATED INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY LOWER GRADE GRADIENT WINDS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

A SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TAF SITES THIS PERIOD.

KCOS...

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER KCOS LATER THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW TO OCCUR. HI RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
SHOWERY PRECIP DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS PRECIP MAY SLACKEN UP LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. THE
PRECIP WILL BE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BUT MAY TURN
OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MOST IF NOT ALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ON GRASSY AREAS...BUT SOME SLUSH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT...ESPECIALLY IF LOCALLY HEAVY BANDS
DEVELOP.

MVFR SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING BECOMING IFR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TOMORROW AS KCOS DUE TO THE MOIST GUSTY UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL
DEVELOP. PRECIP 9RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX) WILL LIKELY BECOME STEADY BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KPUB

SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TOMORROW
EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CIGS WILL LOWER AND PRECIP
CHANCES (RAIN) WILL INCREASE AND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
IFR LIKELY AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW. GUSTY SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KALS

SOME ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24H PERIOD...BUT
ANTICIPATE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR COZ058>061-066-068-073-075-080>082.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR COZ063-072-074-076>079-084.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

145 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHRA AT APF HAVE
MOVED OFFSHORE AND CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING SO HAVE GONE SCT080
IN THE NEAR TERM. ALL ATLANTIC SITES WILL HAVE ESELY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHILE APF WINDS WILL BE ESELY THROUGH THE
MORNING THEN SWINGING AROUND TO THE SW BY AROUND 18Z AS THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE KICKS IN. SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO DAYS...APF WILL
BE SUBJECT TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR RA OR VCSH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SEA BREEZE BUT WILL LEAVE IT UP TO FUTURE UPDATES TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF. ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO DAYS...ISO SHRA OFFSHORE
THE ATLANTIC WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THEY CAN MAKE IT ONSHORE. GIVEN THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE SHRA HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF RA OR
VCSH IN ANY OF THE ATLANTIC TAF SITES FOR NOW. /HOETH

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016/

UPDATE...
THE GULF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND CURRENTLY THERE
ARE SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE HRRR TRIES TO HOLD ONTO THE
SHOWERS MOST, IF NOT ALL NIGHT. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO OVERDONE,
BUT THEY MAY LAST FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS. HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS IN COLLIER COUNTY TO REFLECT THIS, BUT ONLY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER AROUND 01Z THROUGH 06Z.
ALSO, HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN, WHERE SHOWERS HAVE ENDED.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
WILL PROVIDE A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS MAINLY DRY, THERE`S JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA EARLY THIS EVENING
DUE TO GULF SEA BREEZE INTERACTION. THESE SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT TO
THE COAST AND AFFECT THE KAPF VICINITY THROUGH 04Z-05Z, BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS COULD ALSO
DEVELOP NEAR THE EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT
TOO LOW OF A PROBABILITY TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ALMOST A REPEAT OF TODAY, WITH E/SE SFC WINDS
AROUND 10-12 KNOTS YIELDING A GULF COAST SEA BREEZE BY 18Z. ANY
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE INTERIOR. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY SHORT DISCUSSION THIS AFTERNOON...

MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP A GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA, WITH THE SEA AND
LAKE BREEZES TRYING TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. THESE COULD LEAD TO
SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO WARM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR THE INTERIOR POPPING UP BY
THURSDAY. THE LOW TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO BE A LITTLE WARMER
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EACH DAY, WITH THE INTERIOR ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND COASTAL AREAS ONLY INTO THE LOWER
70S.

MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING THE CWA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, CAN NOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
MAINLY AS THE BREEZES REACH THE INTERIOR. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET AT THIS TIME.

MARINE... AN GENERALLY EASTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE PATTERN. SEAS WILL RUN
GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS THIS WEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES IN SOUTH FLORIDA FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 84 72 86 72 / 10 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 74 85 73 / 10 0 10 10
MIAMI 85 74 87 73 / 10 0 10 10
NAPLES 85 71 87 70 / 20 20 20 0

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99/BH
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...99/BH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

739 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIER BETWEEN UPPER SYSTEMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LINGERING CONVECTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS CLEARING TAKES
PLACE. THE HRRR KEEPS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN NORTH CAROLINA
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
IS STILL WEST OF THE AREA. WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW PATTERN DO
NOT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL FRIDAY. PWAT VALUES REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW
0.75 INCHES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS...AND STILL EXPECTING AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE
LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S.

SATURDAY...SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS SOUTH FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN
FURTHER OFF TO THE WEST IN THE UPSTATE. LOSS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM AT THIS TIME. MODELS REMAIN IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN START TO DIVERGE SOLUTIONS
AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY WENT WITH A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR THE EVENING.
CLOUDS CLEARING THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MAINLY CLEAR SKY
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
COULD SEE INTERMITTENT FOG AT AGS 09Z-12Z AS WINDS DIMINISH. WIND
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

718 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LINGERING CONVECTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS CLEARING TAKES
PLACE. THE HRRR KEEPS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN NORTH CAROLINA
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS STILL
WEST OF THE AREA. WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW PATTERN DO NOT EXPECT
ANY RAINFALL FRIDAY. PWAT VALUES REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW 0.75 INCHES. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WARM DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS...AND STILL EXPECTING
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ONLY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE OGB VCNTY THROUGH
00Z...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES. CLOUDS CLEARING THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MAINLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

911 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
901 PM CDT

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN
IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA MOVES EASTWARD. OTHERWISE COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND
FOG...CONDITIONS THAT WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY RESULTING IN A DRY
DAY...BUT EXPECT A SLOW CLEARING TO CLOUDS WITH SOME SUN PEAKS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.

KMD

.SHORT TERM...
140 PM CDT

THROUGH FRIDAY...

ANOTHER COOL/CLOUDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS USHERING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS WITH TEMPS LOCKED IN THE MID/UPR 40S. FURTHER INLAND AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPR
50S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWFA. THERE IS SOME BREAKS
IN THE THICK STRATUS ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWFA...AND WITH A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTH...IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA COULD TOUCH THE LOW/MID 60S BEFORE SUNSET THIS
EVENING.

THE LACK OF MECHANICAL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL ALLOW
CLOUDS TO REMAIN...WITH MINIMAL SCOURING OF THE STRATUS LAYER
PROGGED THROUGH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO PROG SCATTERED SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FEEL THAT
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. IN ADDITION WITH THE LACK OF A LIFT
COMPONENT...EXPECT DROPLET SIZE TO BE MINIMAL WHICH COULD RESULT
IN PRECIP BEING MORE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT RAIN. AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
DRIFTS EAST...THE COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIP WILL
STEADILY DWINDLE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
ONLY COOL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.

SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK FRI MID-LVL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE
RISE...WHICH WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR...HOWEVER WITH THE CONTINUED
LACK OF MIXING THE CHALLENGE IS HOW QUICKLY DO WE ERODE THE THICK
STRATUS LAYER. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE RATE OF IMPROVEMENT UNTIL
MIDDAY...TO PERHAPS LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL END UP CONTROLLING
HIGHS FOR FRI...SO HAVE HELD ONTO THE TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
MID/UPR 50S WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW 60S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA.
ELSEWHERE THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPR 40S AGAIN FRI.

BEACHLER

.LONG TERM...
334 PM CDT

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE WITH
THE INCREASING RAIN POTENTIAL AND THE CONTINUING UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY...WHILE INDUCING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION.

EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE BY SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH MISSOURI. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CLOUD COVER AND UNSEASONABLE COOL CONDITIONS IN THE 40S TO 50S.
RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AS TO WHEN THE RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES OF RAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS
QUITE HIGH AREA-WIDE AS A BAND OF FGEN LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE
AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPING 850 MB WARM FRONT. THIS
LOOKS TO SET UP A DECENT RAIN EVENT OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE AREA...SO I CONTINUED TO LEAVE THE MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE PROXIMITY WITH THE 850 FRONT TO MY
SOUTHERN CWA...I CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EMBEDDED
STORM THERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO SUNDAY BEFORE ENDING...BUT
AT THIS TIME THE BEST WIDESPREAD RAIN POTENTIAL IS LOOKING TO BE
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO BE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK DOES LOOK TO FAVOR BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER
THE PLAINS STATES...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR FALLING HEIGHTS AND
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AS WELL. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME COOLER WEATHER
POSSIBLY DROPPING OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH THE
EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER ATMOSPHERE LATER
IN THE WEEK. THE CURRENT GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN BRING COOLER AIR
OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECWMF KEEPS THE COOLER AIR MASS TO OUR EAST.

KJB

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

MAIN CONCERNS:
* CIGS DETERIORATING FROM IFR AND LOW MVFR TO LIFR TONIGHT AND
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY
* LOW MVFR TO IFR VSBY IN -RA/DZ AND BR TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AND
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY MORNING

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AND LIKELY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOW IMPROVEMENT ENSUES. A EXPANSIVE
AREA OF STRATUS COVERS THE MIDWEST AND WEAK GRADIENT ALONG WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DRY ADVECTION SHOULD MAKE THE STRATUS SLOW TO
ERODE INTO FRIDAY. IFR AND LIFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN WI AND
NORTHEAST IL WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD OR CURRENT CIGS WILL SIMPLY
BUILD DOWNWARD AS INVERSION STRENGTHENS. THERE IS A STRONG
CONSENSUS IN LIFR CIGS IN NEAR TERM GUIDANCE AND WITH SITES IN SE
WI AND FAR NE IL ALREADY LIFR...HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT
IT WILL DEVELOP AT ALL THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING RUSH AT ORD/MDW. CIGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LIFT THE
REST OF THE DAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SCATTER BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO
HAVE PUSHED BACKED SCATTERING IN THE TAFS.

A DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION HAS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF -RA/DZ EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VSBY HAS FALLEN TO IFR AND MVFR WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION AND EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...WITH THE -RA/DZ POSSIBLY LINGERING UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. IFR TO LOW MVFR VSBY COULD THEN LINGER UNTIL MID
MORNING BEFORE IMPROVEMENT OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER IN
VSBY TRENDS GIVEN VARIABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WITH DIMINISHING
SPEEDS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT FROM MID TO LATE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...
351 PM CDT

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
OHIO VALLEY...WHILE WEAKENING...THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL...A
PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF HIGH WIND SPEEDS. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY...THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THIS COULD AGAIN RESULT IN HIGH WAVES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
910 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

An elongated area of low pressure lingering across central
Illinois, roughly along I-74, will continue to be a focus for
spotty sprinkles or drizzle this evening. Precip should remain
north of I-74, based on radar trends and HRRR output. Some
clearing pushed across southern Illinois, as far north as I-72,
but a return of cloud cover is expected from the west the rest of
the night. As winds shift more northerly north of I-74, low clouds
will begin to advance southward, with some light fog possible as
well. The cloud cover will counteract some of the colder air
pushing into the area, with low temps bottoming out in the low to mid
40s towards Galesburg and Lacon, with low 50s south of I-70.

A few minor updates this evening were done on the weather, sky,
and temp/dewpoint grids. Updated information is already available.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Mid afternoon surface map shows weakening 1010 mb surface low
pressure over east central Iowa between Cedar Rapids and Iowa City,
with an occluded front lifting slowly ne over central IL/IN near I-
74. Isolated light showers were ne of I-74 isolated showers and
thunderstorms were over central IN around Indianapolis. Broken
cumulus clouds with bases 2.5-6k ft giving mostly cloudy skies over
central IL while partly sunny skies in southeast IL south of I-70.
Temps range from mid 50s from Macomb to Lacon north to the lower 70s
in southeast IL from I-70 south. Aloft a 555 dm 500 mb low was along
the western MN/IA border.

Latest forecast models take 555 dm 500 mb low east into central Lake
MI by Friday morning while weak surface low pressure tracks toward
west central IN by Friday morning. Expect abundant low clouds over
central IL tonight with mostly cloudy to overcast skies especially
from I-72 north with ceilings lowering to around 1k ft or lower
overnight. Will likely see some fog with vsbys 2-4 miles overnight
into early Friday morning. Less cloud cover in southeast IL tonight
with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies south of I-70. Lows
overnight range from lower 40s by Galesburg to lower 50s in
southeast IL from I-70 southeast. Winds to become NW and be fairly
light tonight under 10 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Another slow moving low pressure area will move out of the plains
and toward the OH valley over the weekend. Pcpn will return to the
area beginning Fri night as the boundary sets up. As the low
pressure area moves along this boundary, south of the CWA, showers
and thunderstorms will dominate for Sat, with chances continuing for
Sat night and Sun. Pcpn will push east of the area on Sun night with
the highest chances of pcpn lingering in the east. Beyond this
system, an upper level cutoff low will sit over the southwest US
while a trough-pattern sets up over eastern Canada and down into
the Great Lakes region. These two things will keep the sfc
boundary south of the area, thereby keeping the CWA relatively dry
during next week.

Clouds and pcpn will keep temps slightly cooler/below normal over
the weekend. Cool/below normal temps will continue next week as well
since the boundary should remain south of the area through the
period and southerly return flow does not look like it returns until
possibly the first full weekend of May.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Still seeing lingering VFR BKN CU clouds across all TAF sites at
00z, with clearing trying to progress northward toward SPI and
DEC. However, any clearing will be short-lived, as an expansive
area of VFR clouds are poised across northern Missouri to move
eastward into central IL this evening. Isolated showers have
lifting north of I-74, and should not affect any terminal sites
this evening.

Based on forecast soundings and HRRR output, we are expecting MVFR
ceilings to return tonight and linger into Friday morning. IFR
ceilings are projected to develop along I-74 early Friday morning
along with MVFR vsbys in fog. Winds stay fairly light next 24
hours with weakening occluded front/trough near I-74. WNW winds
8 to 14 kts early this evening will veer NW tonight and then NE
Friday morning and eventually E during the afternoon. Wind speeds
should remain in the 5-10 kt range on Friday.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

249 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...

1110 AM CDT

THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND TIMING
OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THE
AREA OF SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK
THEIR WAY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS THE
CHICAGO METRO LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 3-4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NOT LATER...BEFORE THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGINS TO INCREASE. THE THREAT OF THUNDER WITH THIS INITIAL SURGE
OF MOISTURE LOOKS LOW. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI COULD
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND POSSIBLE IMPACT SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY WEAKEN.

OVERALL...WE HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST...JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP AREAS NEAR THE LAKE IN THE MID 40S...AND ONLY INTO THE
LOWER 50S INLAND.

KJB

.SHORT TERM...
320 AM CDT

THROUGH THURSDAY

PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND TIMING THE PRECIP
ARRIVAL AND OF COURSE TEMPS. WHILE LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY CLEAR
OUT IN SPOTS AT TIMES...HIGH CLOUDINESS LIKELY TO KEEP CHARACTER
OF THE DAY CLOUDY. STIFF NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
DRY AIR INTO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH COMBINED WITH THE VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE
AREA DRY THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AN ARC OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CLOUDINESS AND COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH
SOME FOG POTENTIAL EVEN NEAR THE LAKE AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ATTEMPT
TO SPREAD NORTH AND INTERACT WITH THE CHILLY MARINE LAYER. UPPER
LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKENING
QUICKLY. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD END THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA.

IZZI

.LONG TERM...
248 PM CDT

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A PROGRESSIVE...COMPLICATED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MULTIPLE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION...OR COME CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THERE MAY BE SOME
POTENTIAL IMPACTS SHOULD SOME CHANGES OCCUR DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE ENE...ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN.
THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS RATHER CONSISTENT ON THE PATH OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM AND WILL REPRESENT THE TAIL END OF THE PCPN EVENT
MOVING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAIN FORCING
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD BE OVER THE NRN
TIER COUNTIES AND SRN WI...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS SHOULD BE A COOL...DRY AIRMASS...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS AREAS AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN. PREVAILING NELY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP
LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS MUCH COOLER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50F. BY SUNDAY...A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN ...POSSIBLY
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING. BROAD WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE
CONDUCIVE TO INCREASING MOISTURE...BUT SFC TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
TROUBLE REBOUNDING MUCH HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WILL LIMIT THE NWD PROGRESSION OF A SFC WARM FRONT. WHILE
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IN THE
FINER SCALE DETAILS...THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING RELATIVELY
COOL FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE IN PLACE. SO...WHILE INLAND TEMPERATURES
MAKE BE ABLE TO REACH AROUND 60 F ON SUNDAY...THE LAKEFRONT WILL
REMAIN MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS AGAIN ONLY AROUND 50F...AND POSSIBLY
ONLY UPPER 40S.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ENTERS INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE UPPER LEVEL NWLY FLOW AND DEEP LAYER COLD ADVECTION IS
SHUNTED EAST TO THE NERN CONUS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A WARMING TREND
FOR THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT...WITH A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND
SWINGING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES...ALONG WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WOULD PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY LEADING TO COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GEMNH LENDS SOME SUPPORT TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...INDICATING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THAT IS THE END OF
THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FROM THAT PARTICULAR MODEL. GIVEN THE
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOW PCPN CHANCES.

KREIN

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

A STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. MAIN CHANGE TO THE TAFS WAS TO REMOVE THE VCTS
MENTION...AS IT APPEARS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF STORM AT
THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...BUT THE PROBABILITY AND DURATION OF IT
IS TO LOW TO CONTINUE A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO KRFD BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS
THE EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER 21-22 UTC. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING BY LATE EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES ON THE EXACT TIMING...WITH JUST LEAVE A VCSH IN THE
FORECAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS WILL IMPROVE SOME THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LOWER MVFR CIGS AROUND...OR JUST BELOW 1,000 FT AGL
ARE LIKELY AGAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING.

KJB

.MARINE...
250 AM CDT

HEADLINES...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD AS IS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS WEAKENS AND PASSES OVER CENTRAL IL
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA REMAINS
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN SHIFTS EAST OVER
QUEBEC EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH TO EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
LAKE THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW RESULTS IN HAZARDOUS WAVES FOR
SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY FOR THE IL NSH WATERS. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE SUNDAY...AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
OVER THE LAKE MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKE TUESDAY.

JEE

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY.

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1257 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Just a few adjustments needed to todays forecast with tightening
the temperature gradient from NNE to SSW today and some tweaks to
weather elements today. An expanding band of showers was spreading
ne toward I-74 late this morning with a few thunderstorms south of
I-70 especially near Lawrenceville. Strong 995 mb surface low
pressure over eastern Nebraska had a warm front over ne MO into
far SW IL and northern KY, south of I-64. Dewpoints range from
lower 60s from I-70 south to the mid 40s from Galesburg and Lacon
north. Temps ragne from upper 40s from Galesburg and Lacon north
to the lower 60s in southeast IL. HRRR model doing better with
handling convection today and leaned on this model for forecast
update today. Should continue to see showers become more
widespread with a few thunderstorms developing during mid day and
then diminish from sw to ne during mid/late afternoon. But
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop later this
afternoon and into this evening with approaching warm front. SPC
day1 outlook has slight risk of severe storms sw of a Macomb to
Lincoln to Terre Haute line from mainly late afternoon into mid
evening as warm front slowly pushes into sw IL with increasing
instability in our SW counties as MUCapes elevate to 1-2k J/kg.
Highs today will struggle to reach 60F over northern CWA from
Peoria and Bloomington north, to lower 70s in southeast IL south
of I-70.

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

The cold front that pushed across the area yesterday was located
over central Missouri east through extreme southern Illinois
early this morning. To the north of the front, temperatures
have dropped into the mid and upper 40s with a chilly northeast
wind, while over southern Illinois, temperatures were still in
the low to mid 60s. Main question for today will be just how
far north the warm front will be able to move as a wave of
low pressure approaches from the west this afternoon and
evening, which will dictate how far north the severe threat
will be in our area. 06z NAM-WRF continues to show the more
favorable MUCAPE instability axis will be roughly along and
especially south of the I-70 corridor this afternoon and
evening with the HRRR model suggesting the warm frontal
boundary may edge into southeast Illinois late today.

The first wave of showers and isolated storms is expected to
develop along and just north of the boundary over southern
Illinois this morning and arc northwest through our southwest
counties. Just how far north and east the rain will be able
to push into the drier air mass to our north this morning is
a challenge as we have already delayed the onset from previous
forecasts and really not confident that is slow enough. However,
models have been more consistent with the timing north this morning
with the first wave of rain, with even a hint of a break before the
main band of showers and storms tracks northeast into our area this
afternoon and evening. If there is going to be a severe weather
threat, this afternoon and evening would be the primary time frame
and especially along and south of the I-72 corridor. 0-6km shear
values around 45 kts could help to produce some wind and hail threat
in this area from mid afternoon through the mid evening hours before
the main area of forcing shifts off to our north and east.

Quite a range in temperatures across the forecast area today with
areas to our north having a tough time getting to 60, while over
far southeast Illinois, afternoon temperatures should climb into
the middle 70s. Have trended a bit cooler than guidance north of
the frontal boundary due to the extensive cloud cover, expected
rainfall and a cool easterly flow today, while guidance looked
reasonable over our southeast counties which had a decent chance
of seeing the warm front edge just to their north this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Another similar round of models overall. Deep low over the Plains
states this morning will not only drive the weather today, but into
the overnight and tomorrow as well. Showers and thunderstorms
continue through the overnight and begin clearing from SW to N/NE
tomorrow in the first half of the day as the upper low starts to
make its way through the region. Should the low slow any more than
is currently forecast...the chances for precip could be a little
low...but for now the track of the upper low is further to the
north, allowing the southern tier of the state to be mostly dry on
Thursday. Showers come to an end briefly with a break Thur night and
into Friday before the next wave ejects out of the SW across the
Midwest for the weekend later Friday night.

Rain chances return for Friday night through the weekend with a
similar setup happening again with another slow moving storm system
out of the SW. Warm sector showers and thunderstorms dominate the
weekend, with some clearing of the precip on Monday with drier air
wrapping around the system. Ultimately, will be interesting to see
how the current slow moving low is handled. Models beginning to
show some wavering with the solutions as the low for the weekend no
longer looks like it clears the trof completely out of the SW.
Should that trof remain...shortwaves ejecting out over the Midwest
Mon-Tue could change up the forecast again. For now, the models
shear out that energy in the wake of the main low...leaving the
first part of the work week with little threat. Slight pops in for
now. Expect some variability in the forecasts to come. Temperatures
throughout the forecast are in line with some expected seasonal
variance with rain/clouds/sun mix.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

A fairly large band of showers and a few thunderstorms over
central IL early this afternoon will gradually lift ne and become
more widely scattered from sw to ne during mid/late afternoon.
More isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely
develop behind this band during late afternoon and into the
evening as a warm front pushes ne into sw IL. Strong 995 mb
surface low pressure over eastern Nebraska will weaken to 1006 mb
as it moves into southern IA Thu morning. This will push a warm
front from northeast MO and far SW IL into central IL by Thu
morning as it occludes. IFR to MVFR ceilings to prevail through
next 24 hours with IFR to MVFR vsbys prevailing as well, though
will be up to VFR at times. Models show a dry slot working ne into
central IL Thu morning especially by SPI and DEC where ceilings
could lift up to VFR or even scatter out. Breezy east winds around
15 kts with gusts 18-24 kts this afternoon to diminish to around
10 kts by overnight and veer more west along I-74 while staying
ENE at PIA and BMI.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

1110 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
1110 AM CDT

KJB

.SHORT TERM...
320 AM CDT

THROUGH THURSDAY

IZZI

.LONG TERM...
320 AM CDT

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND PERHAPS A GOOD CHUNK OF SATURDAY LOOK TO BE DRY BEFORE
THE NEXT CLOSED LOW WOBBLES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARD
THE AREA. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND
RESULTANT RAIN CHANCES HERE. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SOUTH SOME AND GFS SLOWER...BUT DIDN`T REALLY MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST WHICH HAS INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE LOCKED IN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND PROBABLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH NO WHERE WILL THOSE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS BE AS PRONOUNCED AND DRAMATIC AS ALONG THE
LAKE FRONT. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK PLAUSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY NOT
REACH 50F ALONG THE LAKEFRONT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND!

IZZI

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...

HIGH END IFR TO LOW END MVFR STRATUS IS OVER ALL OF THE TERMINALS
EXCEPT RFD. SATELLITE AND GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MVFR
STRATUS WILL HANG AROUND INTO THIS AFTN. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
BEGIN GUSTING TO 25 KT LATE THIS MORNING. HAVE MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS AFTN AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
RAIN OCCURRING TONIGHT...AND MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
GUIDANCE VARIES ON TIMING BUT MOST MODELS FEATURE THE MAIN SWATH
OF RAIN ROTATING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR RFD AND THEN MID
EVENING FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS. DECIDED TO ADD VCTS AS WELL.
HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
REGION BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND EXACT LOCATIONS THIS
EVENING. THINKING MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND THERE
IS A CHANCE IFR CIGS MAY ALSO CREEP OVER THE TERMINALS. DID NOT
HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS SO KEPT THEM AS A SCT LAYER
FOR NOW.

JEE

.MARINE...
250 AM CDT

HEADLINES...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD AS IS.

JEE

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1049 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 525 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

IFR and MVFR cigs/vsbys expected over most of the TAF sites thru
at least this morning before we see cigs rise into the MVFR to low
VFR category this afternoon. Periods of showers and TSRA can be
expected as well as a frontal boundary, currently to our south,
shifts slowly north into south central Illinois later today. The
first wave of rain and isold TSRA just west of STL this morning
will shift northeast into our area during the morning hours before
a temporary break in the rain moves in early this afternoon. That
will be followed by another wave of showers and possibly some
strong TSRA (especially for SPI and DEC) after 20z. Forecast
soundings do indicate enough turbulent mixing occurring with
the rainshowers and storms to bring the cigs to low VFR at times
this afternoon. Areas from PIA and BMI may stay in the IFR range
thru most of the day, while our southern TAF sites, SPI, DEC and
CMI may see the temporary cigs up to low VFR at times this
afternoon and evening before returning back to at least MVFR
category late tonight. Surface winds will be easterly at 12 to 17
kts today with a few gusts around 23 kts at times. Easterly flow
expected again tonight but with speeds diminishing to 8 to 13 kts
as the surface low approaches the area.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

649 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...
320 AM CDT

THROUGH THURSDAY

IZZI

.LONG TERM...
320 AM CDT

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

IZZI

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...

JEE

.MARINE...
250 AM CDT

HEADLINES...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD AS IS.

JEE

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
531 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 525 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

251 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
848 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

FOG HAD STARTED TO ROLL INTO LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE AREAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WAS SHORT LIVED WITH VISIBILITY AND CLOUD BASES
RISING PER WEB CAMS THIS EVENING. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH DRYING IN SFC-950 MB LAYER
SEEMINGLY WELL CORRELATED TO OBSERVED TRENDS. THUS HAVE BACKED OFF
FOG MENTION ALONG THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH...PRECIP
ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO PULL POPS FROM FAR SOUTH TIER OF COUNTIES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS APPEAR TO SUPPORT
A LITTLE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IL
WHERE DRY EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST. ADJUSTED POPS LOWER
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
303 PM CDT

THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OVER
THE AREA.

A LARGE AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE/DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL ALSO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT OVER THE PLAINS. ON WEDNESDAY THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER
...THEN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS BY LATE THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY...DURING THIS PERIOD...A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE PRESSURE PATTERNS DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A
PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF COOL LAKE
MODIFIED AIR OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS A RESULT OF THIS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO VARY WIDELY OVER THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE COOLEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...TEMPERATURES COULD
WARM WELL INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...BUT
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIKELY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY AS BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS TO OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO THE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TO BE A RATHER
WET PERIOD OVER THE REGION AS 850 MB WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. IT ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE A LOW
THREAT FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE 850 MB FRONT MOVES
UP OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SOME MODEST
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT BEGINS TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE
HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. IT APPEARS THE
BEST AREAS WILL BE SOUTH...BUT WITH A WARM AIR ADVECTION SETUP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE ADDED A SMALL CHANCE TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL LOW ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
OVER THE AREA. THIS COULD SET UP SOME ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA IN CLOSE
PROXIMATE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. IT ALSO APPEARS HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT OVER MY FAR SOUTH. FARTHER NORTH 50S ARE LIKELY...AND EVEN
COLDER...IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHGAN.

KJB

.LONG TERM...
320 PM CDT

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

FRIDAY WE WILL BE BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS...SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO ANOTHER
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. THIS STORM SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO BE IN
QUESTION. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE WILL BE
A PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE TO OUR NORTH. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SYSTEM ENDING UP SLOWER THAN CURRENT
MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST COULD RESULT IN A SLOWER ONSET OF SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA THAN THE FORECAST CURRENTLY SUGGESTS. AT THE
PRESENT...I HAVE HELD OFF THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS A PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

KJB

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

MVFR STRATUS EXTENDS WEST TO ABOUT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND HAS
NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE HAVE GIVEN ME ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO KEEP MVFR STRATUS IN
THE FORECAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN ARND 15 KT THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BEGINNING LATE
THIS MORNING. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THE MVFR CIGS WILL
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN OCCURRING TONIGHT...BUT ONLY
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. GUIDANCE VARIES ON TIMING BUT MOST
MODELS FEATURE THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN ROTATING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR RFD AND THEN MID EVENING FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS.
REMOVED THE VCSH AND PUSHED THE TIMING OF PRECIP BACK BY AN HOUR.
THINKING MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND THERE IS A
CHANCE IFR CIGS MAY ALSO CREEP OVER THE TERMINALS. DID NOT HAVE A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS SO KEPT THEM AS A SCT LAYER FOR NOW.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS PSBL...BUT THINKING THE VAST MAJORITY WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS SO DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

JEE

.MARINE...
250 AM CDT

HEADLINES...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD AS IS.

JEE

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

1258 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
848 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
303 PM CDT

THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OVER
THE AREA.

KJB

.LONG TERM...
320 PM CDT

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

KJB

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

JEE

.MARINE...
207 PM CDT

NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE LAKE...WINDS WILL LARGELY
REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN SOME TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
SPREADS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THURSDAY. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES EAST...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE ANOTHER LOW FORMS
IN THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. WINDS OVER THE LAKE NEVER GET TOO
STRONG AS THE GRADIENT IS NOT SUPER STRONG BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...BUT SPEEDS WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WAVES >=4FT AND POSSIBLY STRONGER WINDS AT
TIMES. THE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF. WE
HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ILLINOIS
NEARSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ENE FETCH WILL
MAINTAIN WAVES GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 4 FT FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD WEDNESDAY EVENING. WE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE INDIANA NEARSHORE EXPIRATION TIME JUST FOR MORE OF
AN EAST WIND CUTTING DOWN WAVES FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME
THOUGH...THOUGH IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGHER WAVES ON THE INDIANA SHORE THURSDAY.

KMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

913 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO KENTUCKY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND PUSH THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO THE FORECAST.

YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING YET
MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SURFACE TROUGHING EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT. SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SHOW SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED LIFT OVER
MAINLY THE NORTHERN ZONES INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY...SO
WILL KEEP IN SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS.

QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH LOW CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA
WILL GET TONIGHT...BUT APPEARS MOST OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER WILL RESIDE ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHER CENTRAL INDIANA...LINGERING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STRETCHES FROM EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHERN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.
RADAR SHOWS THAT SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS HRRR SEEMS A BIT OVER AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TREND APPEARS IN PLACE WITH SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR
THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
PRECIP DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID
LEVEL CAPPING BUILDING DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE OR
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL TRY AND HAVE MINIMAL POPS TO NO POPS. THUS
WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH A GOOD MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND
TOWARD A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. WITH LIGHT N-NW FLOW IN
PLACE...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A BLEND ON LOWS.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN
OVERRUNNING PATTERN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER BEST FORCING LOOKS TO
ARRIVE AFTER 12Z SAT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD CLOUD SKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

BETTER FORCING ARRIVES ON SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH TOWARD INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS EXCELLENT UPGLIDE ON SATURDAY WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER
5 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN BY
18Z. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD HIGH POPS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN EXPECTED RAIN.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ARE LOOK POISED TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE
POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS AND TREND HIGHS COOLER AND LOWS WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS A FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AND AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. COULD SEE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS HANGING AROUND GIVEN THIS. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
AFTER THAT AND SHOULD SEE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. MODELS DISAGREE ON INSTABILITY WITH THAT SYSTEM SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR INITIALLY APPEARS LIKELY TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE QUESTION BEING HOW LOW THINGS WILL GET.

LAMP GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON HOW EARLY THINGS WILL
DETERIORATE AND HOW LOW THEY WILL GO. WILL TAKE IND/HUF/BMG TO MVFR
AND LAF TO IFR AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHERLY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WESTERLY
SOUTH. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO WELL BELOW 10KT OVERNIGHT.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/JAS
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

1250 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

HAVE FINED TUNED POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT
RECENT CAM RUNS AND DENOTE THE MOST PROBABLE BREAKS IN ANY
PRECIP. FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST IOWA REMAINS ON TRACK WITH RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
OTHER HIGH RES MODELS BRINGING THE WARM FRONT UP TO HWY 34 BY
21-22Z AND SURFACE OBS MATCHING THIS IDEA WITH THE FRONT STARTING
TO NOSE INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST TIP OF IOWA. THE BIG QUESTION WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT WRAPS NORTHEASTWARD. VISIBLE
SATELLITE DATA DOES SHOW A POCKET OF CLEARING IN SE NEBRASKA
SPREADING EASTWARD AND TRENDS WITH THIS CLEARING WILL BE MONITORED
OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS.

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

CONVECTION TODAY...AND MORE SPECIFICALLY SEVERE POTENTIAL...WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT GETS TO. STRONG UPPER LOW
WILL PIVOT FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 06Z
THURSDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM NORTH CENTRAL/
NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING THIS SAME TIME
FRAME. THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM
FRONT BUT ALL MODELS PLACE IT INTO AT LEAST AS FAR AS FAR NORTHERN
MISSOURI. THE GFS LIFTS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
IOWA AND AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
IN IOWA WHILE THE NAM IS AT LEAST SIMILAR...IT DOES NOT BRING IT
QUITE AS FAR NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND IT IS A BIT LATER IN LIFTING THE FRONT INTO FAR SOUTHERN
IOWA.

EITHER WAY...GIVEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW FROM LATE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WHERE A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND A TORNADO WOULD
BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY. OF COURSE IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
HOW MUCH WE WILL ACTUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
NEARLY ALL DAY. THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THIS FIRST BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WITH A BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE STORMS REFIRE IN THE 21Z TO
00Z TIMEFRAME THEN THAT ROTATES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. IF THAT SCENARIO PLAYS OUT WE WOULD CLEAR OUT
SOME AND HAVE SOME TIME TO DESTABILIZE FURTHER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. THE NAM GIVES US A BETTER CHANCE FOR A SEVERE WINDOW.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

OVERALL THE SITUATION REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED
YESTERDAY. A WEAK FLOW AND BLOCKING PATTERN THROUGH THE ROCKIES
WILL KEEP IA IN A VERY SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESSENTIALLY SEASONALLY COOL AND DAMP. AT ONSET THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND
THAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL DEPENDING ON WARM FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND
THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY FROM THE FRONT
REMAINING INTO MO /HI RES ARW AND NMMB/ TO WELL INTO SRN IA /GFS/.
00Z ECMWF IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS WHILE THE NAM AND NESTED NAM
HAVE MORE OF A NW-SE ORIENTATION...JUST PLACING SWRN SECTIONS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY WELL INTO
MO...RECENT 3HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE EXPANDING RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE
KS SURFACE LOW SO EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH AT LEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z WITH THE NAM POSSIBLY LOOKING THE MOST
REASONABLE. IT WOULD SEEM THE ONLY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE
A TORNADO OR NOTHING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY
CAPES WITH WEAK DEEP SHEAR. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WOULD BE
THERMODYNAMICALLY DOMINATE TORNADOES DRIVEN BY 0-3KM CAPES 100-200
J/KG AT A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL MLCAPE...VERY LOW LCLS...AND
ADEQUATE SURFACE VORTICITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THUS CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THE CURRENT SPC CATEGORICAL SLIGHT SEVERE OUTLOOK...AND
WOULD NOT OPPOSE THE TOR PROBABILITIES NUDGED A BIT FARTHER NORTH
INTO IA.

ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD QUICKLY WANE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO IA. LOBE OF
FORCING NORTH AND EAST OF ITS TRACK WILL KEEP RAIN AND POSSIBLY A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER GOING INTO THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH.
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL EXIT THU WITH POPS
DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST LEADING TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THU NIGHT
AND FRI. TEMPS WILL RECOVER LITTLE THU WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS
AND WINDS BECOMING NLY. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MO
BORDER...THE DIURNAL SWING WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10F.

THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CA/OR
COAST AND THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH ITS PROGRESSION.
BOTH KEEP IA IN THE COOL SECTOR WITH THE SURFACE TRACK TO THE SOUTH.
A LOBE OF PHASED MECHANICAL DPVA/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM/THETA-E
ADVECTION BELOW SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SPREADING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME BELOW SEVERE THUNDER INTO IA BY SAT AND LINGERING
INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUN. THUS HAVE LIKELY POPS GOING AND ONLY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING INTO SUN NIGHT. CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA WILL
AGAIN SEE THE BRUNT OF THIS PRECIP WITH AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR
MORE. THE FLOW IS WEAK AND NON-DESCRIPT INTO MON AND TUE AND
ESSENTIALLY DRY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PERIODS OF FOG
AND/OR STRATUS WITH VERY WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND MOIST GROUND/LOW
LEVELS AFTER THESE TWO SYSTEMS.

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA...GRADUALLY
LIFTING DURING PEAK HEATING AND THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT. RAIN
OVER NORTHERN IOWA WILL LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND MOVING
NORTH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

RIVER FORECASTS BASED ON 24 HOURS OF QPF STARTING AT 00Z SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND WESTERN IOWA...AND THERE IS STILL MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT FLOOD STAGES WILL NOT BE REACHED WITH THIS CURRENT
SYSTEM AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY HAVE EVEN BEEN A TOUCH OVER
FORECAST. RFC CONTINGENCY FORECASTS THROUGH 72 HOURS SUGGEST
SIMILAR OUTCOMES WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM AS WELL WITH SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES AND JUST AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL OF REACHING FLOOD
STAGE AT A FEW SPOTS IN THE RACCOON AND DES MOINES BASINS.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SKOW
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...SKOW
HYDROLOGY...SMALL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

1019 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING/
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MAINLY IFR CIG WITH OCNL LIFR CIGS. SCT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 00Z BUT
TIMING OF THE SCT PRECIP DIFFICULT. I HAVE LEFT VCSH IN FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD AND TRIED TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER. KDSM
AND KOTM WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AS A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT TO NRN MO AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN IA AND WILL LIKELY BUCKLE A BIT
FURTHER NORTH WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS OUT
OF SE NEB. STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FM 21-01Z INVOF THE FRONT WITH
MULTIPLE AVIATION HAZARDS POSSIBLE.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SKOW
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB
HYDROLOGY...SMALL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

140 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED LATE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR
MODEL. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD THIS
MORNING THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WE HAVE ALSO BEEN SEEING
SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH OUT THE MORNING THAT WERE NOT
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST EITHER. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS MORNINGS SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY...THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM 13Z THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WERE INCREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEL DATA AND ACTUAL OBS ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FOR TODAY WERE ALSO INCREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THAT WE HAVE ALREADY HAD AND ARE
ANTICIPATING THE REST OF TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

WSR-88D IS TRACKING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. WE HAVE BEEN SPARED THE THUNDER THIS
MORNING UNLIKE PORTION OF CENTRAL KY...BUT DID ADD ISOLATED BY
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON IN CASE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATES INTO THE REGION. OVERALL ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE
RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THIS MORNING WSR-88D RADAR IS SHOWING SOME RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS PORTION OF EASTERN KY. MORE OF A SCATTERED COVERAGE OVERALL
AND RIGHT NOW THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS...HOWEVER
THE NMM/ARW SEEM TO BE OVERDONE ON THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS. JUST CAN
NOT JUSTIFY THE MORE ROBUST POP CAMS ARE PAINTING GIVEN THE CLOUD
TOP WARMING TREND BASED ON IR SAT.

NOW THE REST OF THE DAY STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION. CAMS DO
REDEVELOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND WOULD PROBABLY RESIDE
ALONG LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER GIVEN LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND EVEN LESS SHEAR THAN YESTERDAY...WOULD THINK ANY
CONVECTION THAT FIRES WOULD BE FAIRLY DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER FELT
LIKE SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD NOT BE RULED OUT AND PERHAPS A
ISOLATED SEVERE REPORT IF WE REALIZE THE INSTABILITY. OVERALL KEPT
BETTER POPS IN THE SW TO MATCH THE SSEO THINKING UNTIL MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD ONCE AGAIN RIDE EAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THEREFORE BRING MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS AFTER 00Z...AND WOULD THINK OVERALL BETTER CHANCES WOULD
RESIDE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. GENERALLY THINK
CONVECTION WILL WANE OVERNIGHT AND ISOLATED STORM WOULD BE THE
STORY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

NOW FOR THURSDAY THERE LOOKS TO BE ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY ON AS
MENTIONED ABOVE. WE THEN LOOK TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
EJECTS NE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO
FALLING HEIGHTS AND LIFTING FROM THE BOUNDARY. TIMING SEEMS TO BE
THE BIGGEST QUESTION AND HOW MUCH CAN WE GET TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE
EARLY ON CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE WESTERLIES ALOFT BEGIN TO PICK
UP WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. THE MODEL SOUNDING
FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST DCAPES APPROACHING THE
1000 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND AMPLY MID
LEVEL DRYING WHICH WOULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THE HAIL THREAT WOULD ALSO BE THERE WITH DECENT BUOYANCY IN
THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND
FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING...BUT OVERALL THE STRONGER SIGNALS SEEM
TO POINT TO MORE OF A WIND THREAT. ALSO THERE ARE CERTAINLY SOME
SIGNALS WITH RESPECT TO THE CIPS ANALOG FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER
RIGHT NOW GIVEN SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY AKA MARGINAL SPC
RISK...AND WITH RESPECT TO MOST OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS MODEST
SIGNAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WILL HOLD OFF ON STRONGER MENTION IN
THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STILL ANTICIPATED VERY EARLY
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA RATHER QUICKLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED
TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A SERIES SHORT WAVES
EJECTING EASTWARD AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MS
AND OH VALLEYS FRI INTO SUN. EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TO END THE WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD INTERACT OR
MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS SHOULD SHARPEN UP A TROUGH OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
AND THE GREAT LAKES.

THE AXIS OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH GENERALLY PASSING NORTH
SHOULD BE WORKING INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO CONVECTION EXITING ON THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. HOWEVER...
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND FORCING ARRIVE FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
AS SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF AND
GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
WE CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSE TO THE THE MODEL BLEND. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A MORE DEFINED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DEEPEST. A GOOD SOAKING RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND
IS ANTICIPATED AND AMOUNTS NEARING OR EXCEEDING AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IF STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS TRAIN.

TROUGHING WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY...JUSTIFYING AT LEAST LOW CHANCE
POPS. THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS HOWEVER INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
A REPRIEVE FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY AND LINGERING AFTER THE PERIOD. WE
HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE MODEL BLEND POPS ON TUESDAY UNTIL
OR IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT A DRY PERIOD OR TWO SHOULD OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND THEN LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY BACK TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START NEXT WEEK. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
DIURNAL RANGES THUS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THE AIRPORTS AROUND EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH CORRESPONDING MVFR
CONDITIONS...THROUGH OUT THE TAF PERIOD. DURING TIMES WHEN NO
SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE AFFECTING A PARTICULAR TAF SITE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOST WIDESPREAD THROUGH AROUND 10Z ON THURSDAY. AFTER THAT...THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN GENERAL...WITH STRONGER GUSTIER WINDS
ACCOMPANYING ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...PG/JP
AVIATION...AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1140 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

PERIOD EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR..BUT SOME MVFR COULD NOT BE
RULED OUT. THIS MORNING WSR-88D RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH THAT CLOUD BASES
REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH LOWEST CIGS AT AROUND 4 KFT MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH. WHILE WE HAVE SEEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO OUR
WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KY...EASTERN KY ONLY SEEING SHOWERS. DID BEGIN
TO INTRODUCE SOME VCTS TOWARD THE LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
ALL SITES. BETTER COVERAGE LOOKS TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING GENERALLY
AFTER 00Z...RIGHT NOW THINK BASED ON SOME OF THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO BRIEF DROPS IN CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR OR
LOWER LEVELS. ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...PG/JP
AVIATION...DJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

640 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...PG/JP
AVIATION...DJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

626 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

MOST OF THE HEAVIER STORMS ARE ON THE WAY OUT OF THE REGION AT THIS
EARLY MORNING HOUR. BEST STORM COVERAGE RESIDES ACROSS THE FAR
EAST THIS HOUR. THIS WILL LEAD TO QUICK LOWERING OF VIS AND CIG TO
MAINLY MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR NEARER THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE MOST
SITES HAVE IMPROVED TONIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HEAVIER STORMS.
DID KEEP SOME MVFR IN THE FAR NORTH FOR CIGS JUST GIVEN THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND THIS SEEMED MATCH UP WITH THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE MESO GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST A LULL
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SOME -SHRA IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE
MORNING. THEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON MORE CONVECTION COULD FIRE
UP...HOWEVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH WHERE THAT
WILL OCCUR. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP THE VCTS/-SHRA GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...PG/JP
AVIATION...DJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

453 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...PG/JP
AVIATION...DJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

1233 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCLUDED PREVAILING OR TEMPO THUNDER FOR THE
MOST LIKELY TIMING. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE WILL EASE AFTER SUNSET...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...SEVERAL
HOURS OF IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.

.16Z SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

CAPPING INVERSION JUST BELOW 700MB HAS WEAKENED A FEW DEGREES FROM
THE 12Z KLIX SOUNDING AND SURFACE BASED PARCELS ARE UNINHIBITED WITH
AROUND 3600 J/KG OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. WEAKENING HAS BEEN
OCCURRING WITH THE MAIN SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE NOTICED
RECENT DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE ALONG AND EAST OF I-55.
DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES AS THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUE IS NEARLY
UNCHANGED AND DRIER AIR HAS MIXED DOWN TO AROUND 2300 FEET. MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP AND THE FREEZING LEVEL AND WET BULB
ZERO LEVEL HAVE HAD ONLY MINOR CHANGES. HAIL THREAT MAY BE
DIMINISHED SOME DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER KANSAS AT 2 AM. A WELL DEVELOPED
SQUALL LINE EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO THE ARKLATEX...TO
THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS. LOCALLY...SOME LOWER CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO
THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO
MID 70S SOUTHWEST AT 2 AM. DEW POINTS GENERALLY LAGGED
TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE DEGREES.

SHORT TERM...

SHORT TERM PROBLEM WILL BE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY. SYNOPTIC
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE CATCHING CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WITH
CONVECTION NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...IF AT ALL.
MESOSCALE MODELS PAINT A DIFFERENT PICTURE. HRRR HAS SQUALL LINE
REACHING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND MID-MORNING...ABOUT
15Z. NMM IS A COUPLE HOURS SLOWER. EXTRAPOLATION OF RADAR OVER THE
LAST 3 HOURS WOULD HAVE THE PRECIPITATION IN EVEN QUICKER THAN
THAT...CLOSER TO 13Z. EVENING LIX SOUNDING WAS ALREADY SUPPORTIVE
OF CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THAT SYNOPTIC MODELS COULD BE OVERDOING
WARMING AROUND 700 MB...SHOWING A CAP THAT MAY NOT BE THERE THIS
MORNING. UNLESS THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR...PLAN TO GO MUCH CLOSER TO MESOSCALE MODELING
ON RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY. THIS MEANS MOST AREAS WILL HAVE AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS TODAY. SPC HAS ABOUT NORTHWEST
HALF OF CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE REMAINDER IN A MARGINAL
RISK. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS. TEMPERATURE TRENDS BASED ON MORNING CONVECTION...BUT HAVE
SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON HOW THE SCENARIO UNFOLDS.

WILL BE CARRYING HIGHER POPS TONIGHT THAN SYNOPTIC MODELS WOULD
INDICATE BASED ON POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ON
THURSDAY...ORGANIZED CONVECTION LESS LIKELY...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR LOCALIZED
CONVECTION. SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY.

WILL TREND TOWARD MIDDLE/LOWER END OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES SINCE SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE
UNDERPLAYING CONVECTION.

LONG TERM...

DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION MAY BE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROLLS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAS THIS ALREADY IN
PLACE.

MARINE...

INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD SPREAD INTO ALL OF
THE GULF WATERS AND THE BRETON AND CHANDELEUR SOUNDS BY TONIGHT.
HAVE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR THE WESTERN WATERS FOR
TODAY...AND EXPECT TO SEE THESE HEADLINES EXTENDED TO THE EASTERN
WATERS FOR TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF SHOULD
RELAX A BIT ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF BECOMES
MORE DOMINANT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS SHOULD INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW BACK INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE BY FRIDAY AND THEN KEEP THESE STRONGER WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
MIDWESTERN STATES. THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN BACK TO AROUND 10
KNOTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 83 69 83 68 / 80 40 30 10
BTR 84 70 85 70 / 80 40 30 10
ASD 84 72 83 70 / 80 40 30 20
MSY 84 72 84 72 / 80 40 30 10
GPT 82 72 81 71 / 60 40 40 20
PQL 81 70 81 69 / 40 40 30 20

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...95/DM
SOUNDING...ANSORGE
PREV DISCUSSION...35/32

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

808 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NOTABLE WARMING HAS OCCURRED SINCE 00Z BETWEEN 925 AND 700MB WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION JUST BELOW 700MB. ABOVE THIS CAPPING
INVERSION...700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP NEAR 9C/KM. THERE IS
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE NEAR 2300 J/KG SO
ONGOING SQUALL LINE/QLCS SHOULD PERSIST. HAIL THREAT IS A CONCERN
WITH A WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT NEAR 9200 FEET AND COUPLED WITH THE
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 825MB AND 600MB
LEADING TO A MODEST DOWNDRAFT CAPE OF 860 J/KG. 0-1 AND 0-3KM
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE LOW FOR TORNADOES...THOUGH WILL
BE WATCHING FOR SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SQUALL LINE/QLCS AS STORMS MODIFIED LOCAL ENVIRONMENT.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT ASCENDING FOR 103 MINUTES
TRAVELING 46 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. THE BALLOON BURST
AT A HEIGHT OF 21.2 MILES NEAR GULFPORT.

ANSORGE

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

SYNOPSIS...

SHORT TERM...

WILL TREND TOWARD MIDDLE/LOWER END OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES SINCE SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE
UNDERPLAYING CONVECTION. 35

LONG TERM...

AVIATION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING OVERALL IN TERMS OF TIMING FOR THE
LINE OF CONVECTION TODAY. BEFORE THIS CONVECTION ARRIVES...LOW
CEILINGS AND SOME PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS.
THE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED AT KMCB WHERE THE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST AROUND DAYBREAK. BOTH THE WRF
AND HRRR MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION STILL HAS IT IMPACTING KBTR AROUND 16Z...KMSY AROUND
18Z...AND KGPT AROUND 20Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY 06Z TOMORROW. 32

MARINE...

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 83 69 83 68 / 70 40 30 10
BTR 84 70 85 70 / 70 40 30 10
ASD 84 72 83 70 / 60 40 30 20
MSY 84 72 84 72 / 50 40 30 10
GPT 82 72 81 71 / 40 40 40 20
PQL 81 70 81 69 / 30 40 30 20

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

324 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

.SHORT TERM...

WILL TREND TOWARD MIDDLE/LOWER END OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES SINCE SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE
UNDERPLAYING CONVECTION. 35

.LONG TERM...

.AVIATION...

.MARINE...

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 83 69 83 68 / 60 40 30 10
BTR 84 70 85 70 / 60 40 30 10
ASD 84 72 83 70 / 60 40 30 20
MSY 84 72 84 72 / 60 40 30 10
GPT 82 72 81 71 / 50 40 40 20
PQL 81 70 81 69 / 30 40 30 20

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

1226 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...

A VERY COMPLEX AND ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL IMPACT AVIATION
OPERATIONS AT THE AREA AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INITIALLY...A LOW STRATUS DECK THAT IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WILL
OVERSPREAD ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY 09Z. THIS LOW STRATUS WILL
RANGE FROM A LOW OF 300 TO 500 FEET AT KMCB AND KBTR TO HIGH OF
1500 AT KMSY AND KGPT. SOME FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MAINLY DUE TO STRATUS BUILD DOWN. FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT AT
KMCB WHERE IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE FORECAST...BUT SOME MVFR
RESTRICTIONS COULD ALSO FORM AT KBTR AND KHDC AROUND DAYBREAK.

TRANSITIONING FROM THE FOG THREAT...SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE FROM
THE HRRR INDICATES THAT A LINE OF CONVECTION COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT
AIRPORT OPERATIONS DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS. HAVE PLACED TSRA
WORDING INTO THE FORECAST...WITH KBTR AND KMCB SEEING THE
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 16Z AND KMSY AND KHUM EXPECTING THE STORMS
CLOSER TO 18Z. THE INITIAL LINE OF STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD PASS
THROUGH QUICKLY...BUT LINGERING WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN IN
THE WAKE OF THE LEADING EDGE OF STORMS COULD PERSIST FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 21Z...AS
THE LINE OF STORMS WEAKENS AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPS.

GETTING CLOSER TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z...WITH A MIX OF
IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. 32

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 84 70 81 69 / 60 30 30 10
BTR 85 71 83 71 / 60 30 30 10
ASD 84 72 81 71 / 60 30 30 20
MSY 85 73 82 72 / 60 30 30 10
GPT 83 73 80 72 / 50 30 40 20
PQL 82 71 80 70 / 30 30 30 20

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

1157 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAFS

.AVIATION...
CIGS HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPECT THAT
TREND TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY
DIP INTO IFR TERRITORY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A SQUALL LINE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
CURRENT TIMING BASED ON GUIDANCE AND SPEED OF THE LINE WILL PUT
THE SQUALL INTO BPT BY 12Z THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO LCH AND
AEX BY 13Z AND 14Z RESPECTIVELY AND FINALLY INTO LFT AND ARA BY
15Z. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST BEHIND THE SQUALL FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE COMING TO AN END.

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BOTH IN FRONT OF AND BEHIND THE SQUALL AND
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN THIS WAY UNTIL SUNSET WEDNESDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
QLCS OVER NRN/CNT TX PROGGED TO CONTINUE EWD WITH A BIT MORE OF A
SE MVMT AFTER 06Z...AND IS FCST BY NUMEROUS SHORT RANGE MODELS TO
ENTER OUR INTERIOR EAST TX ZONES AROUND 4 TO 5 AM. WHILE THERE IS
GENERALLY GOOD TIMING CONSENSUS...THEY ARE LESS CONSISTENT ON
ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE ERODING THE
WARMER TEMPS AT H8 SEEN ON THE KLCH 00Z RAOB AND MAINTAINING A
ROBUST LINE OF CONVECTION...WHILE THE LESS AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER. DESPITE THESE
DIFFERENCES...HAVE INCREASED QPF/POPS FOR THE 06-12Z TIME PERIOD
OVER EAST TX BASED ON THE TIMING CONSENSUS.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...BASED ON PROGGED WINDS IN THE 15-20KT
RANGE...EXTENDED THE SCEC HEADLINE TO INCLUDE THE 0-20NM ZONES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAFS

AVIATION...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE ROBUST LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK
LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL DROP CIGS TO IFR DURING THE EARLY AM
HOURS WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT THE CLOUD
DECK FROM REACHING THE SURFACE ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHT...PATCHY
REDUCTION IN SURFACE VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 12Z. INSERTED VCTS AT
SITES BASED ON BEST GUESS TIMING BUT EXACT TIMING OF CONVECTION
WILL HAVE TO BE FURTHER REFINED AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
CAROLINAS WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE SRN PLAINS...
MAINTAINING AN ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING SLOWLY
NWD OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES...WHILE WEAK RIDGING LINGERS
CLOSER TO HOME. AS DISCUSSED EARLIER JUST A FEW SHOWERS ARE
SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN WHERE A
LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE IS FOUND...OTHERWISE WARM AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL PER LATEST SFC OBS.

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION BEING OF A
DIURNAL NATURE...EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING.
THE FUN STARTS LATER TONIGHT AS THE WRN CONUS LOW ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING NWD WHILE A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
DROPS THROUGH IT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. COMBO OF INCREASING LIFT
ALOFT...EXCELLENT MOISTURE (FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL IN EXCESS
OF 1.5 INCH PWATS) AND A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO
AT MINIMUM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LAST FEW HRRR RUNS
HAVE BEEN INDICATING SOME SORT OF MCS DEVELOPMENT WITH A SIMILAR
TIMEFRAME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF
THE AREA WHERE BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT ARE PROGGED. PRETTY MUCH THE
ENTIRE AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR LATER
TONIGHT/TOMORROW DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES AS WELL AS
STEEP LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD INSTABILITY
IN PLACE BUT GIVEN A FAIRLY THICK CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT
INSOLATION AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH HOW UNSTABLE WE WILL BE SO NO
SEVERE WORDING HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOR NOW.

RAIN CHANCES WILL IMPROVE STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS BEST
DIVERGENCE ALOFT BEGINS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. COMBO WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BY WEDNESDAY. ENTIRE AREA IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK BY SPC FOR WEDNESDAY AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY/CAPE/LAPSE RATES ALL
IMPROVING. BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SMALL POPS LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE
NEXT ROUND OF ENHANCED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY MOVES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

MARINE...
HAVE INSERTED CAUTION HEADLINES ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE COMBO
OF A TIGHTER GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL JETTING ELEVATE WINDS ON THE
COASTAL WATERS STARTING TONIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 86 70 83 69 / 20 20 70 40
LCH 84 73 81 72 / 20 20 60 30
LFT 85 73 84 74 / 20 10 50 40
BPT 83 73 83 72 / 10 40 60 20

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.

AVIATION...66

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

735 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM
SASK THROUGH THE NRN LAKES ATOP A TROUGH FROM SW MN INTO SW WI. AT
THE SFC...NW LOW LEVEL FLOW PREVAILED INTO UPPER MI BETWEEN HIGH
PRES FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO AND A TROUGH FROM ERN IA
INTO THE OH VALLEY. LIGHT RAIN FROM CNTRL WI INTO CNTRL LOWER MI WAS
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN/DEFORMATION AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.
OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WITH AREAS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS REMAINED ACROSS
UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE
NEAR MNM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...VERY DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR WILL MINIMIZE ANY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN. EVEN WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS...EXPECT ENOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
DROPPING BELOW THE LOW 30S.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATE LIGHT PCPN PASSES NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A
WEAKENING NE GRADIENT FLOW WILL STILL BE BOOSTED BY LAKE SUPERIOR TO
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...850-800 MB TEMPS AROUND -1C WILL SUPPORT INLAND TEMPS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AGAIN WITH FEW
MID/HIGH CLOUDS BUT MORE INLAND CU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

A FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN APPEARS TO BE IN THE OFFING ACROSS THE
CONUS/SRN CANADA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. IN GENERAL...
RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE WILL BE THE
RULE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF CANADA WITH HEIGHT ANOMALIES
PEAKING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL IN TURN FAVOR TROFFING OVER ERN
CANADA AND AT TIMES INTO THE ERN CONUS. THIS TROFFING WILL REACH
PEAK AMPLITUDE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...IT APPEARS
ENERGY APPROACHING THE W COAST WILL SPLIT...SUPPORTING REDEVELOPMENT
OF A CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES TROF ON A FAIRLY REGULAR BASIS. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE UPPER LAKES UNLESS THE ERN TROF
RELAXES SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE MEAN ROCKIES
TROF TO LIFT FAR ENOUGH NE TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN INTO THE
UPPER LAKES. THUS...THERE IS LITTLE PCPN IN THE FCST FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ONE SHORTWAVE DROPPING THRU NRN ONTARIO OVER THE
WEEKEND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME -SHRA...BUT WITH TRACK OF WAVE
JUST NE OF UPPER MI...PCPN IS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS FAR
S...ESPECIALLY WITH INSTABILITY LACKING. WOULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY
IF WE WERE MUCH FARTHER INTO THE WARM SEASON. DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN
CANADA RIDGE WHICH REACHES PEAK AMPLITUDE EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE FORCED TO DROP FARTHER S INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA WHICH SHOULD OCCUR
TUE NIGHT WARRANTS LOW CHC POPS. AT THIS POINT...THAT`S THE ONLY CHC
OF RAIN FROM SAT THRU THU.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE EXPECTED PATTERN MOSTLY FAVORS NORMAL TO BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR UPPER MI. AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT
LAKES...AN OVERALL DRY COLUMN ON MOST DAYS WILL SUPPORT RATHER LARGE
TEMP RANGES FROM NIGHTLY MINS TO AFTN MAXES. THRU THE WEEKEND...
TEMPS AT NIGHT WILL LIKELY DROP TO OR BLO FREEZING IN THE INTERIOR
COLDER AREAS. AFTN TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F AWAY FROM THE
COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LAKES. SOME WARMING WILL BEGIN
MON...BUT MORE SO TUE AS W TO SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE TUE NIGHT. HOW WARM WILL
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. COOLER WEATHER...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FOLLOW FOR WED WITH HIGH PRES
BUILDING TOWARD NRN ONTARIO. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...RECENT NAEFS
OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO KEEP UPPER MI ON THE EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BEING FAVORED OVER WRN CANADA/NRN ROCKIES/NRN
PLAINS AND NORMAL TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS BEING FAVORED OVER SE CANADA.
SO...IT APPEARS TEMPS ACROSS UPPER MI WILL OVERALL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOSE TO NORMAL HEADING INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.

WITH THE DEVELOPING DRY SPELL AND MOSTLY COOL WEATHER...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT...KEEPING GREENUP SLOW...FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE AN ISSUE
AT TIMES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. AS IT STANDS RIGHT
NOW...OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...TUE WILL LIKELY BE THE DAY OF MOST
CONCERN AS IT SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
BREEZY W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH
THAT FROPA 5 DAYS OUT...TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY CHANGE SOME
IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HI PRES NEAR HUDSON BAY
AND A PAIR OF LO PRES SYSTEMS DRIFTING E THRU THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/
FAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THRU THIS WEEKEND. THIS PRES PATTERN FAVORS
CONTINUED NE WINDS UNDER 20 KTS FOR MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONGER ENE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
LAKE...WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL FUNNEL AND ACCENTUATE THE NE
FLOW...TODAY AND PERHAPS SAT WHEN THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE
SHARPEST. AS A HI PRES RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE UPPER LAKES SUN
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT. WSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WILL
PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE S AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT DROPPING THRU ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

328 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE PLUMMETED IN NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA WHERE CLEAR CONDITIONS HAVE TAKEN OVER AS CLOUDS SHIFTED
SOUTH. THIS MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST OUT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
GOING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL ALSO
SEE TEMPS DROP ESPECIALLY OVER THE THUMB AREA. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO RETREAT TO THE SOUTH AND CURRENTLY ARE STILL AFFECTING THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. A CLEARING TREND IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN SLOW...THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION AS THE AREA IS SITUATED BETWEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST
EAST OF THE HUDSON BAY AREA AND ANOTHER WEAKER LOW TO THE WEST OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE LOW OUT TO THE WEST ENCROACHES ON THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL START PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SPREADING OVER THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY GIVEN A LITTLE INSTABILITY WORKING
IN...THE BETTER FORCING AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO STAY TO THE SOUTH.
THE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE MAY
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP FRIDAY MORNING...BUT OVERALL
EXPECTING FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY TO BE DRY AS RIDGING BUILDS
BACK IN. THIS RIDGING WILL NOT LAST LONG AS YET ANOTHER LOW LOOKS
TO SWEEP ACROSS BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE COOLER TEMPS...HIGHS IN THE 50S...STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BACK INTO
THE 60S IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...EPSECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE HURON. WHILE
A STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST...WAVES APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WIND
WINDS HOLD CLOSER TO 10 OR 12 KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART.

.HYDROLOGY...

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A BULK
OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO AN INFLUX OF
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ON STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW...LOCATIONS NEAR THE OHIO
AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE COULD RECEIVE UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
AS FORCING NEARER THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY LONGER
DURATION EVENT.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 123 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THE CLEARING LINE OF MVFR STRATUS WILL NOW BE SLOW TO WORK SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THIS IS DUE TO A
PRONOUNCED...SYNOPTIC SCALE CONFLUENCE ZONE IN PLACE. MODEL DATA
REMAINS STEADFAST THE CLEARING TREND SHOULD ACCELERATE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS AFTER 09Z THIS MORNING. DID FAVOR LATEST RUC DATA
TO HOLD ONTO A BKN/OVC MVFR CIG THROUGH 12Z AT THE DETROIT
TERMINALS. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO AMOUNT/LONGEVITY OF
DEBRIS CLOUD BELOW 5000 FT DURING THE MORNING. MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY
WITH A PERSISTENT...BUT RELATIVELY BENIGN EASTERLY WIND.

FOR DTW...TWO ITEMS...EXPECTING EASTERLY WINDSPEEDS TO DROP BELOW 7
KNOTS FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 10
KNOTS BY MID MORNING. OVC-BKN CIGS OF 2000 FT AGL TO HOLD THROUGH
12Z WITH FEW/SCT DEBRIS CLOUD TO STICK AROUND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN AMOUNT OF CLOUD BETWEEN 12-18Z WEDNESDAY.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ060>063-068>070.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...SS
MARINE.......DG
HYDROLOGY....DG
AVIATION.....DG

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

123 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN AMOUNT OF CLOUD BETWEEN 12-18Z WEDNESDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1052 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

UPDATE...

PER SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS THIS EVENING...ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE LIVINGSTON AND SHIAWASSEE TIERS MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM EDT. THERE IS STILL QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL
TAKE CLOUD TO ERODE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH A
PRONOUNCED LOW/MIDLEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE LOCKED IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FAVORABLE RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP...IT WON`T
TAKE LONG FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
LIVINGSTON/OAKLAND/MACOMB COUNTIES.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

DISCUSSION...

STRATUS PREVAILS BENEATH A STOUT INVERSION FED BY ONGOING MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT DRY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE MAKING INROADS
DURING THE EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE THUMB FROM THE WATERS OF LAKE HURON AND WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH THROUGH SUNSET. RIDGE AMPLIFICATION IN
RESPONSE TO THE EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS
REGION WILL PROVIDE A CHOICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
WILL SUPPORT AN ABSENCE OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD WHILE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEFLECT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. NO COMPLAINTS WITH 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATING HIGHS APPROACHING
60. GRADUAL ABSORPTION OF THE LOW INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING
THURSDAY WILL SHUNT RIDGING TO THE EAST. EXPECT, AT THE LEAST, A
HEALTHY COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. 12Z NWP STRONGLY SUPPORT
THE NOTION THAT FORCING WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE REMNANTS LIFTING SOUTH-TO-NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER HERE, BUT
ABUNDANT DRY AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 5KFT OFFER
PHYSICAL SUPPORT FOR ITS SOLUTION. THUS, POPS REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY THURS THROUGH THURS NIGHT IN SPITE OF THE
OTHERWISE STRONG NWP CONSENSUS. HIGH TEMPS WILL HOVER IN THE 50S
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS.

MARINE...

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL SPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MIDWEEK.

HYDROLOGY...

AFTER A DRY PERIOD TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LIFTING
AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. THOUGH MOST WILL SEE AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS...LOCATIONS CLOSER TO OHIO COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ACCUMULATION ON THURSDAY DUE TO A LONGER
DURATION.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ060>063-068>070.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

AVIATION.....DG
UPDATE.......CB
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......DRK
HYDROLOGY....DRK

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

1031 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
THE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING THE TYPICAL MORNING LULL. PER
THE LATEST HI RES MODELS, THE MAIN LINE BREAKS UP AFTER 18Z AND MOVES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY 4PM. A CAP WILL BE THE FIRST THING THE
STORMS HAVE TO FIGHT OFF THIS MORNING BUT WITH VERY GOOD MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DECENT CAPE, STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE POTENT AS
DAYTIME HEATING RAMPS UP. SEVERE CHANCES INCREASE WITH THIS
HAPPENING. WITH THE LINE BREAKING UP AFTER 18Z AND PUSHING OUT OF THE
AREA EARLY, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
ENOUGH BEFORE SUNSET TO TRIGGER A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS IN CENTRAL
MS. THE MAIN THREATS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT THE TORNADO THREAT THOUGH. FYI,
WE WILL BE RELEASING A 17Z BALLOON IF WE CAN GET IT IN BEFORE THE
RAIN AND STORMS MOVE IN SO LOOK FORWARD TO GETTING THAT DATA.

FOR THE UPDATE, THE HWO HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO SHOW THE LATEST SEVERE
WEATHER THINKING. ADJUSTED THE POPS BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PARAMETERS LOOK PRETTY GOOD RIGHT NOW. /10/

.AVIATION...
A LARGE COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST TEMPORARY IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS...THERE
WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS BUT EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
REDEVELOP AND BRING IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND SE OF THE JAN/CBM LINE. CIGS WILL BREAK
UP AND MIX OUT MID/LATE THURS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /EC/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

..SEVERE WEATHER WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEEDINGLY COMPLEX
WEATHER SCENARIO UNFOLDING FOR THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ALL NIGHT WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING A WELL-DEVELOPED SQUALL LINE
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION FROM OUT OF EAST TX AND THE
ARKLATEX...BUT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO THIS LINE IS BREAKING UP
QUITE A BIT (ALTHOUGH STILL CONTAINING SCATTERED CHUNKS OF VIGOROUS
CONVECTION). HIRES HRRR RUNS TONIGHT HAVE BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS
LINE OF STORMS AND FORECASTING IT TO MORE OR LESS STAY INTACT AND
PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO WOULD PROVIDE SOME SEVERE RISK (PRIMARILY
FROM DAMAGING WINDS)...BUT THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
MAY BE REDUCED AND THE PASSAGE OF ACTIVITY WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY
STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FROM PRODUCING ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS EVENING AS THE ACTUAL FRONTAL ZONE PUSHED
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

BUT THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS NOT THE ONLY POSSIBILITY AND THE OTHER
(BUT PROBABLY SLIGHTLY LESS LIKELY) OPTION IS THAT THE RECENT TSTORM
LINE DISSOLUTION TREND CONTINUES AND MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WANES APPRECIABLY WHILE NOT GREATLY STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THIS SCENARIO RATHER HIGH (2000+
J/KG ML CAPE) INSTABILITY WOULD BUILD INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND
SUBTLE ATMOSPHERIC LIFT CATALYZING DEVELOPING OF VIGOROUS HP-TYPE
SUPERCELLS (WHICH WOULD BRING A RANGE OF RISKS...INCLUDING VERY
LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES).

THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD IS WE SEE A MIX OF BOTH SCENARIOS...ALTHOUGH
THE DOMINANT SQUALL LINE MODE WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE OCCURRENCE OF
ANY SUPERCELLS TO ONE OR TWO AT MOST TO A ZONE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY SUCH
SUPERCELLS COULD ALSO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY AND COULD PRESENT A VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK.

FINAL DECISION ON THE EXACT HWO/GRAPHICS LAYOUT WILL COME SHORTLY
AND WILL DEPEND ON THE VERY LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND AVAILABLE SHORT
TERM MODEL INFO.

BY LATE TONIGHT EXPECT THE INCOMING FRONT TO BE CONFINING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ZONES WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WANING GRADUALLY FROM LATE EVENING AND
THEREAFTER.

ON THURSDAY THIS BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN...BUT CONTINUE TO PRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN SOUTHEASTERN MS PROBABLY
GETTING RE-INVIGORATED IN THE AFTERNOON BY THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM IN
INSTABILITY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AT THAT
POINT BUT WIND SHEAR INGREDIENTS NECESSARY TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LACKING. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE "FRONTAL"
ZONE WILL VERY WARM WITH SOME MAXIMUMS IN THE UPPER 80S QUITE
PLAUSIBLE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT ANTICIPATE ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN SE MS
TO BE DISSIPATING IN THE EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW
STORMS COULD POP UP LATE IN THE NIGHT IN WESTERN ZONES AS THE
BOUNDARY STARTS TO RETURN BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE ORGANIZING UPSTREAM. /BB/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
DAILY RAIN CHANCES IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR LATE SATURDAY. COULD GET A BREAK FROM THE
RAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

STARTING ON FRIDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WILL STALL NORTH OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL BRING SOME MEAN
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CWA. DAYTIME HEATING AND STRONG INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY DUE TO INSTABILITY. SPC
HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE RISK DUE TO THE INSTABILITY WITH
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8C. HOWEVER FORCING WILL BE WEAK AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY PUSHES TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW
FOR ANY SEVERE RISK IN THE HWO. AS WE PUSH INTO FRIDAY NIGHT THE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH TOWARD THE PLAINS. IN RESPONSE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL BE PUSHED NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY AND FORCING START TO
COME TOGETHER FOR SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWS
THAT WE WILL DEVELOP SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND GOOD LIFT BY MID
AFTERNOON SATURDAY IN THE WEST...WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
GOOD LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-50 KNOTS AS A MIDLEVEL JET OF 60 KNOTS
CROSSES THE CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT RETURN WILL BE
WEAKER ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE REGION...WHICH WAS SHOWN BY
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. WE MAY GET SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THE
WEST ON SATURDAY FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THE PRIMARY
RISKS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FLASH FLOODING AND
A FEW TORNADOES. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE
SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL AREA FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. IN ADDITIONS MODELS SHOWS THAT WE MAY GET SOME ADDITIONAL
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING
THE HEAVY RAIN RISK AT THIS TIME FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS WE GO
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCES OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WORK ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT
OUR RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WAS SHOWN BY THE EURO/GFS AND
CANADIAN.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WILL BE LOOKING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S./17/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 79 66 86 65 / 73 55 23 13
MERIDIAN 81 64 84 63 / 73 56 39 12
VICKSBURG 81 66 87 67 / 90 42 14 15
HATTIESBURG 84 66 83 68 / 83 55 45 21
NATCHEZ 80 67 85 69 / 91 43 22 15
GREENVILLE 81 65 86 63 / 80 32 8 12
GREENWOOD 80 65 86 62 / 70 46 11 9

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

445 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

...SEVERE WEATHER WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEEDINGLY COMPLEX
WEATHER SCENARIO UNFOLDING FOR THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FINAL DECISION ON THE EXACT HWO/GRAPHICS LAYOUT WILL COME SHORTLY
AND WILL DEPEND ON THE VERY LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND AVAILABLE SHORT
TERM MODEL INFO.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
DAILY RAIN CHANCES IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR LATE SATURDAY. COULD GET A BREAK FROM THE
RAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WILL BE LOOKING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S./17/

.AVIATION...EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS (PRIMARILY DUE TO
LOW CEILINGS) THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG COULD BE THE MAIN
WORRY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MS AROUND PIB/HBG. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
START COMING INTO GLH A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE...GETTING TO THE
GWO/JAN/HKS NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY...AND INTO THE
GLH/CBM/NMM/MEI/HBG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE LATTER AREAS THOSE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT
SCATTERED TSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS TODAY AWAY FROM STORMS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND A LITTLE
GUSTY AT TIMES. POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT CAT PROBLEMS WILL ARISE AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT IN AT LEAST CENTRAL AND EASTERN MS. /BB/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 79 66 86 65 / 79 55 23 13
MERIDIAN 81 64 84 63 / 75 56 39 12
VICKSBURG 81 66 87 67 / 90 42 14 15
HATTIESBURG 84 66 83 68 / 84 55 45 21
NATCHEZ 80 67 85 69 / 91 43 22 15
GREENVILLE 81 65 86 63 / 80 32 8 12
GREENWOOD 80 65 86 62 / 76 46 11 9

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BB/17

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1051 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 402 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

A bit of a cloudy to partly cloudy, but nice, day has prevailed
across the region in the wake of storms over the past couple of
days. However, we will be cooler as we move forward through the next
few days and the potential for thunderstorms will return for Friday
and the weekend.

Big picture today shows the Central Plains enjoying a shortwave
ridge between the trough that moved through Wednesday (now to our
north) and another large trough across the Great Basin to our west.
The shortwave ridge will persist across the Plains into Friday, but
the large scale trough out west will eject a smaller trough through
the Plains Friday and through the weekend. As a result, expected
warm air advection, with an abundance of moisture in the region,
will allow showers and thunderstorms to bubble up again. Currently,
model solutions have slowed down the onset of the precipitation; and
while the forecast has been adjusted to slow the onset a little,
still expect a chance of rain to spread across the region Friday
with the best chance for widespread activity expected to develop
late Friday evening and overnight as the large scale warm air
advection ramps up ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough moving
into the Plains. Severe threat looks very minimal to non-existence
outside an errant small hail or gusty wind report that might be
associated with the Friday night thunderstorm activity. However, we
will have precipitable water values running over one inch; and given
our recent rains, any torrential rain might lead to some local
flooding issues. That applies not just to Friday night, but all
through the weekend whenever more storms occur.

Rest of the weekend will be dominated by a chance for rain as the
ejecting shortwave trough gets picked up by the prevailing
westerlies, likely making for a cloudy and damp weekend. This will
help keep temperatures a little cool (around normal, but cool from
what we`ve had recently)through the weekend into next work week with
highs in the 60s to low 70s.

Otherwise, expect the chance for rain to fade Sunday night into
Monday with dry conditions likely Monday through Thursday of next
week.

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

Stratus will linger over northern MO for a few more hours, then
should gradually fall apart and lift to the northeast, bringing all
TAF sites to VFR shortly after 06z. Broken midlevel stratus will
stream over the region tonight, but may break up a bit especially
during the afternoon, and will remain at or above 6-8 kft. Showers
and perhaps some embedded thunder, accompanied by lower ceilings,
will gradually build in from the south after 00z Saturday, impacting
all TAF sites prior to 06z.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Laflin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
624 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 402 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

Otherwise, expect the chance for rain to fade Sunday night into
Monday with dry conditions likely Monday through Thursday of next
week.

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

Stratus currently parked over northern Missouri will attempt to
gradually lift and break up over the next few hours, eventually
lifting out of the MCI and STJ terminals between 02z-04z. Mainly
clear skies will then predominate until early Friday morning, when
broken stratus around 10 kft begins to build in from the south. A
few sprinkles are possible around sunrise, but should not impact
aviation and will be too widely scattered for mention in the TAFs.
Showers and thunderstorms will build back into the region on Friday
evening, but will hold off until after the end of the TAF period.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Laflin

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
611 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

After a temporary break in the active weather an increasing
chance for showers and thunderstorms will return Friday as a broad
upper level trough comes across the southern Rockies.

A backing and increasingly diffluent flow will along with
strengthening isentropic upglide will cause elevated convection to
break out across southern and portions of the central plains
through tonight. This activity will migrate northward into the
Ozarks region heading into Friday morning with an increasing
coverage through the day. Expect rather widespread showers and
embedded thunderstorms. Marginal instability will preclude any
threat of severe storms Friday but lightning and locally heavy
rainfall.

The showers and embedded storms will persist into Friday night as
the upper level system pushes slowly east. The associated warm
front will be lifting north toward the area as surface
cyclogenesis takes place across the Plains. The progression of
this warm front and evolution will have to be monitored as it will
impact the potential for stronger storms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

The warm front will lift north into the region Saturday as the
upper level trough edges eastward into the Plains. Models differ
on the placement of the developing surface low and warm front. The
WRF suggest the warm sector spreads into the Ozarks region
Saturday which would pose a conditional risk for severe weather.
In any event scattered showers and storms are expected Saturday
but the potential for severe storms will have to be monitored.

The upper level trough will fill and make its way east across the
central U.S. on Sunday. This will maintain considerable cloud
cover and possibly some lingering showers.

Another upper level trough is progged to slide east and southeast
from the Rockies early next week. This system will track farther
south but could bring scattered showers to far southern Missouri
on Tuesday.

Looks like mostly dry weather will transpire during the middle and
later part of the week but models differ on the strength of the
upper level ridge.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

VFR conditions will continue tonight with increasing high clouds.
A warm front will then approach southern Missouri on Friday with
showers and a few thunderstorms overspreading the area starting in
the morning. There is an increasing signal for MVFR conditions by
early afternoon. There will even be limited potential for IFR
around Branson by late afternoon. Meanwhile, winds will increase
out of the east on Friday with some gusts approaching 20 knots
around Springfield.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann